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16 Nov 2019 at 01:49
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Bibliography on: Climate Change


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RJR: Recommended Bibliography 16 Nov 2019 at 01:49 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2019-11-15

Applequist WL, Brinckmann JA, Cunningham AB, et al (2019)

Scientists' Warning on Climate Change and Medicinal Plants.

Planta medica [Epub ahead of print].

The recent publication of a World Scientists' Warning to Humanity highlighted the fact that climate change, absent strenuous mitigation or adaptation efforts, will have profound negative effects for humanity and other species, affecting numerous aspects of life. In this paper, we call attention to one of these aspects, the effects of climate change on medicinal plants. These plants provide many benefits for human health, particularly in communities where Western medicine is unavailable. As for other species, their populations may be threatened by changing temperature and precipitation regimes, disruption of commensal relationships, and increases in pests and pathogens, combined with anthropogenic habitat fragmentation that impedes migration. Additionally, medicinal species are often harvested unsustainably, and this combination of pressures may push many populations to extinction. A second issue is that some species may respond to increased environmental stresses not only with declines in biomass production but with changes in chemical content, potentially affecting quality or even safety of medicinal products. We therefore recommend actions including conservation and local cultivation of valued plants, sustainability training for harvesters and certification of commercial material, preservation of traditional knowledge, and programs to monitor raw material quality in addition to, of course, efforts to mitigate climate change.

RevDate: 2019-11-15

Wellbery CE (2019)

Climate Change Health Impacts: A Role for the Family Physician.

American family physician, 100(10):602-603.

RevDate: 2019-11-15

Lum L (2019)

Climate Change: What the Science Tells Us.

American family physician, 100(10):Online.

RevDate: 2019-11-15

Anderson JT, SM Wadgymar (2019)

Climate change disrupts local adaptation and favours upslope migration.

Contemporary climate change is proceeding at an unprecedented rate. The question remains whether populations adapted to historical conditions can persist under rapid environmental change. We tested whether climate change will disrupt local adaptation and reduce population growth rates using the perennial plant Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae). In a large-scale field experiment conducted over five years, we exposed > 106 000 transplants to historical, current, or future climates and quantified fitness components. Low-elevation populations outperformed local populations under simulated climate change (snow removal) across all five experimental gardens. Local maladaptation also emerged in control treatments, but it was less pronounced than under snow removal. We recovered local adaptation under snow addition treatments, which reflect historical conditions. Our results revealed that low elevation populations risk rapid decline, whereas upslope migration could enable population persistence and expansion at higher elevation locales. Local adaptation to historical conditions could increase vulnerability to climate change, even for geographically widespread species.

RevDate: 2019-11-15

Zhu Z, Liu Y, Kuang H, et al (2019)

Altered fluvial patterns in North China indicate rapid climate change linked to the Permian-Triassic mass extinction.

Scientific reports, 9(1):16818 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-53321-z.

The causes of the severest crisis in the history of life around the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) remain controversial. Here we report that the latest Permian alluvial plains in Shanxi, North China, went through a rapid transition from meandering rivers to braided rivers and aeolian systems. Soil carbonate carbon isotope (δ13C), oxygen isotope (δ18O), and geochemical signatures of weathering intensity reveal a consistent pattern of deteriorating environments (cool, arid, and anoxic conditions) and climate fluctuations across the PTB. The synchronous ecological collapse is confirmed by a dramatic reduction or disappearance of dominant plants, tetrapods and invertebrates and a bloom of microbially-induced sedimentary structures. A similar rapid switch in fluvial style is seen worldwide (e.g. Karoo Basin, Russia, Australia) in terrestrial boundary sequences, all of which may be considered against a background of global marine regression. The synchronous global expansion of alluvial fans and high-energy braided streams is a response to abrupt climate change associated with aridity, hypoxia, acid rain, and mass wasting. Where neighbouring uplands were not uplifting or basins subsiding, alluvial fans are absent, but in these areas the climate change is evidenced by the disruption of pedogenesis.

RevDate: 2019-11-15
CmpDate: 2019-11-15

Mi H, Fagherazzi S, Qiao G, et al (2019)

Climate change leads to a doubling of turbidity in a rapidly expanding Tibetan lake.

The Science of the total environment, 688:952-959.

Recent climate change is causing most lakes on the Tibetan Plateau to grow at an unprecedented rate. Changes in the physical properties and water storage of the lakes are now relatively well documented. Yet the impacts on their water quality remain poorly understood. Turbidity is a well-established optical water-quality indicator related to suspended particulate matter concentration which can affect vertical light attenuation and ecosystem functioning. Here, we use remotely sensed data to assess the seasonal and long-term variations in turbidity in Siling Lake, one of the fastest growing lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, and to identify potential driving mechanisms of this change. The lake experiences two distinct peaks of turbidity during the year: one in August (warm season) caused by the seasonal influx of sediments from the Zagya Zangbo River, and one in December (cold season) caused by the wind-driven resuspension of sediments along the lakes' shorelines. The analysis further revealed a persistent increasing trend that doubled the average lake turbidity between 2000 and 2017. Evidence suggests this rise in turbidity results from a climate-driven increase in sediment supply from the Zagya Zangbo River, and from sediment resuspension associated with the erosion of shorelines recently submerged during the rapid expansion of the lake (paleoshorelines). Our results highlight the vulnerability of the Tibetan Lakes' water quality to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-11-15

Yue Y, Zhang P, Y Shang (2019)

The potential global distribution and dynamics of wheat under multiple climate change scenarios.

The Science of the total environment, 688:1308-1318.

Accurately predicting changes in the potential distribution of crops resulting from climate change has great significance for adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change and ensuring food security. Based on very large datasets of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) occurrence points and the main environmental factors that affect wheat growth, we used the Maxent model to predict the future global potential distribution and land suitability for wheat cultivation under multiple global climate change scenarios. Our results indicated that the suitability for wheat cultivation is primarily influenced by climatic factors and that the ≥0 °C accumulated temperature is especially important. The RCP4.5 scenario is more favourable for wheat cultivation, whereas the RCP8.5 scenario is the least favourable. Moreover, land suitability for wheat cultivation increased in Europe, Russia, the United States, Canada, China, and Pakistan, whereas a decreasing trend in suitability was found in Central and Eastern Africa, Australia, and South India. Overall, climate change is predicted to increase land suitability for wheat cultivation in middle- and high-latitude areas, and to decrease suitability in low latitude areas. Although the global distribution of wheat will not significantly alter with climate change, the risks to wheat cultivation may be significantly higher in the future because of high temperatures, heat waves, and droughts caused by climate change.

RevDate: 2019-11-14

Anonymous (2020)

Climate Change and Health: A Call to Action.

Holistic nursing practice, 34(1):1.

RevDate: 2019-11-14

Usher K, Durkin J, N Bhullar (2019)

Eco-anxiety: How thinking about climate change-related environmental decline is affecting our mental health.

International journal of mental health nursing, 28(6):1233-1234.

RevDate: 2019-11-14

Wei J, Peng L, He Z, et al (2019)

Potential distribution of two invasive pineapple pests under climate change.

Pest management science [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: The number of global invasive species has significantly increased during the past two centuries due to globalization. The understanding of species invasion under climate change is crucial for sustainable biodiversity conservation, community dynamics, ecosystem function, and resource distribution. Two invasive species, Dysmicoccus brevipes (Cockerell) and D. neobrevipes (Beardsley) have greatly expanded their ranges during recent years. These insects are now considered as extremely serious pests for various plants, especially pineapple. In addition, they are the primary vectors for pineapple wilt associated virus. However, the potential distribution range and management strategies for these pests are unclear.

RESULTS: In this study, potential risk maps were developed for these pests with MaxEnt (maximum entropy) based on occurrence data under different environmental variables. The potential distributions of these pests were projected for 2050s and 2070s under three climate change scenarios as described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results showed that both pests have similar potential distributions, with high environmental suitability in South America, Africa and South Asia. In addition, potential range expansions or reductions were predicted under different climate change scenarios. The annual mean temperature was the most important factor, accounting for 43.4% of D. brevipes distribution. The minimum temperature of coldest month and mean temperature of coldest quarter was found to be responsible for 90.3% of D. neobrevipes distribution.

CONCLUSION: This research provided a theoretical reference framework to develop policies in the management and control of these invasive pests. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-11-14

Domenici P, Allan BJM, Lefrançois C, et al (2019)

The effect of climate change on the escape kinematics and performance of fishes: implications for future predator-prey interactions.

Conservation physiology, 7(1):coz078 pii:coz078.

Climate change can have a pronounced impact on the physiology and behaviour of fishes. Notably, many climate change stressors, such as global warming, hypoxia and ocean acidification (OA), have been shown to alter the kinematics of predator-prey interactions in fishes, with potential effects at ecological levels. Here, we review the main effects of each of these stressors on fish escape responses using an integrative approach that encompasses behavioural and kinematic variables. Elevated temperature was shown to affect many components of the escape response, including escape latencies, kinematics and maximum swimming performance, while the main effect of hypoxia was on escape responsiveness and directionality. OA had a negative effect on the escape response of juvenile fish by decreasing their directionality, responsiveness and locomotor performance, although some studies show no effect of acidification. The few studies that have explored the effects of multiple stressors show that temperature tends to have a stronger effect on escape performance than OA. Overall, the effects of climate change on escape responses may occur through decreased muscle performance and/or an interference with brain and sensory functions. In all of these cases, since the escape response is a behaviour directly related to survival, these effects are likely to be fundamental drivers of changes in marine communities. The overall future impact of these stressors is discussed by including their potential effects on predator attack behaviour, thereby allowing the development of potential future scenarios for predator-prey interactions.

RevDate: 2019-11-14

Meyer-Jacob C, Michelutti N, Paterson AM, et al (2019)

The browning and re-browning of lakes: Divergent lake-water organic carbon trends linked to acid deposition and climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):16676 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-52912-0.

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and water colour are increasing in many inland waters across northern Europe and northeastern North America. This inland-water "browning" has profound physical, chemical and biological repercussions for aquatic ecosystems affecting water quality, biological community structures and aquatic productivity. Potential drivers of this "browning" trend are complex and include reductions in atmospheric acid deposition, changes in land use/cover, increased nitrogen deposition and climate change. However, because of the overlapping impacts of these stressors, their relative contributions to DOC dynamics remain unclear, and without appropriate long-term monitoring data, it has not been possible to determine whether the ongoing "browning" is unprecedented or simply a "re-browning" to pre-industrial DOC levels. Here, we demonstrate the long-term impacts of acid deposition and climate change on lake-water DOC concentrations in low and high acid-deposition areas using infrared spectroscopic techniques on ~200-year-long lake-sediment records from central Canada. We show that acid deposition suppressed naturally higher DOC concentrations during the 20th century, but that a "re-browning" of lakes is now occurring with emissions reductions in formerly high deposition areas. In contrast, in low deposition areas, climate change is forcing lakes towards new ecological states, as lake-water DOC concentrations now often exceed pre-industrial levels.

RevDate: 2019-11-14

Ladouceur R (2019)

Our fight against climate change.

Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien, 65(11):766.

RevDate: 2019-11-13

Beggs PJ, Zhang Y, Bambrick H, et al (2019)

The 2019 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: a turbulent year with mixed progress.

The Medical journal of Australia [Epub ahead of print].

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change was established in 2017 and produced its first Australian national assessment in 2018. It examined 41 indicators across five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. It found that, overall, Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In this report we present the 2019 update. We track progress on health and climate change in Australia across the same five broad domains and many of the same indicators as in 2018. A number of new indicators are introduced this year, including one focused on wildfire exposure, and another on engagement in health and climate change in the corporate sector. Several of the previously reported indicators are not included this year, either due to their discontinuation by the parent project, the Lancet Countdown, or because insufficient new data were available for us to meaningfully provide an update to the indicator. In a year marked by an Australian federal election in which climate change featured prominently, we find mixed progress on health and climate change in this country. There has been progress in renewable energy generation, including substantial employment increases in this sector. There has also been some progress at state and local government level. However, there continues to be no engagement on health and climate change in the Australian federal Parliament, and Australia performs poorly across many of the indicators in comparison to other developed countries; for example, it is one of the world's largest net exporters of coal and its electricity generation from low carbon sources is low. We also find significantly increasing exposure of Australians to heatwaves and, in most states and territories, continuing elevated suicide rates at higher temperatures. We conclude that Australia remains at significant risk of declines in health due to climate change, and that substantial and sustained national action is urgently required in order to prevent this.

RevDate: 2019-11-13

Callaghan TV, Kulikova O, Rakhmanova L, et al (2019)

Improving dialogue among researchers, local and indigenous peoples and decision-makers to address issues of climate change in the North.

Ambio pii:10.1007/s13280-019-01277-9 [Epub ahead of print].

The Circumpolar North has been changing rapidly within the last decades, and the socioeconomic systems of the Eurasian Arctic and Siberia in particular have displayed the most dramatic changes. Here, anthropogenic drivers of environmental change such as migration and industrialization are added to climate-induced changes in the natural environment such as permafrost thawing and increased frequency of extreme events. Understanding and adapting to both types of changes are important to local and indigenous peoples in the Arctic and for the wider global community due to transboundary connectivity. As local and indigenous peoples, decision-makers and scientists perceive changes and impacts differently and often fail to communicate efficiently to respond to changes adequately, we convened a meeting of the three groups in Salekhard in 2017. The outcomes of the meeting include perceptions of how the three groups each perceive the main issues affecting health and well-being and recommendations for working together better.

RevDate: 2019-11-13

Smith TP, Thomas TJH, García-Carreras B, et al (2019)

Community-level respiration of prokaryotic microbes may rise with global warming.

Nature communications, 10(1):5124 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-13109-1.

Understanding how the metabolic rates of prokaryotes respond to temperature is fundamental to our understanding of how ecosystem functioning will be altered by climate change, as these micro-organisms are major contributors to global carbon efflux. Ecological metabolic theory suggests that species living at higher temperatures evolve higher growth rates than those in cooler niches due to thermodynamic constraints. Here, using a global prokaryotic dataset, we find that maximal growth rate at thermal optimum increases with temperature for mesophiles (temperature optima [Formula: see text]C), but not thermophiles ([Formula: see text]C). Furthermore, short-term (within-day) thermal responses of prokaryotic metabolic rates are typically more sensitive to warming than those of eukaryotes. Because climatic warming will mostly impact ecosystems in the mesophilic temperature range, we conclude that as microbial communities adapt to higher temperatures, their metabolic rates and therefore, biomass-specific CO[Formula: see text] production, will inevitably rise. Using a mathematical model, we illustrate the potential global impacts of these findings.

RevDate: 2019-11-13

Khruleva OA, AV Stekolshchikov (2019)

Additions to the aphid fauna of Wrangel Island due to climate change withbr />redescription of the oviparous female of Pterocomma groenlandicum Hille Ris Lambers, 1952 (Hemiptera, Aphidoidea).

Zootaxa, 4615(3):zootaxa.4615.3.6 pii:zootaxa.4615.3.6.

The article contains new data on the Aphidoidea of Wrangel Island collected in 2015. Previously, at least four species were known. Two of them, Aphis polaris Stekolshchikov et Khruleva, 2014 and Metopolophium sabihae Prior, 1976, were regularly observed on the island in the 1980s and 1990s. Pterocomma groenlandicum Hille Ris Lambers, 1952 and Myzus (Nectarosiphon) polaris Hille Ris Lambers, 1952, were first collected in 2006. In 2015 three more species were found: Brachycaudus (Mordvilkomemor) rumexicolens (Patch, 1917), Cavariella aegopodii (Scopoli, 1763), and Pemphigus saliciradicis (Börner, 1950). This last species represents a first record for the territory of Russia whereas C. aegopodii had not previously been collected in tundra landscapes. In 2015, a total of seven aphid species were collected. For one of the four previously noted species, M. sabihae, a sharp increase in its abundance is recorded. We propose that the increase in aphid species diversity is due to climate warming in the Russian High Arctic. A detailed redescription of the oviparous female of P. groenlandicum is also provided.

RevDate: 2019-11-12

Patrick K (2019)

Climate change, taxes and health: getting government back to work on its most urgent business.

CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne, 191(45):E1233-E1234.

RevDate: 2019-11-11

McLeay LJ, Doubell MJ, AJ Linnane (2019)

Spatial and temporal variations in female size at maturity of a Southern Rock Lobster (Jasus edwardsii) population: A likely response to climate change.

PloS one, 14(11):e0225144 pii:PONE-D-19-12184.

The size at which sexual maturity is reached is a key population parameter used to guide the setting of minimum legal size limits in fisheries. Understanding spatial and temporal variations in size at maturity is fundamental to management because the relationship between size at maturity and minimum legal size limits affects the fraction of the mature population biomass that is harvested, and resulting egg production, larval settlement and recruitment. This study measured the size at maturity of female Southern Rock Lobster (Jasus edwardsii) across South Australia between 1991 and 2015 in relation to known oceanographic characteristics, surface and subsurface temperature data, and relative changes in lobster abundance. There was pronounced north to south spatial variation in estimates of size at maturity. Larger average size at maturity was recorded in warmer north-western areas of the fishery relative to the cooler waters of the south-east. Estimates of size at maturity also differed over 25 years across the fishery. However, the nature of temporal responses varied spatially, and were more consistent with variations in surface and subsurface water temperature at local-scales than changes in lobster density. In the well-mixed waters of the north-western, western and south-eastern parts of the fishery, relatively high rates of increase in sea-surface temperature and size at maturity were recorded since 1991, indicating that size at maturity may be responding to ocean warming associated with global climate change. In more central parts of the fishery, contrasting temporal signals in sea-surface temperature (positive) and bottom temperature (negative) indicated increases in upwelling strength over the study period, and formation of a bottom cold pool below a warm surface layer, with corresponding decreases in size at maturity recorded. The spatio-temporal changes in size at maturity measured in this study highlight the need for oceanographic information to be integrated into future stock assessment models to enhance harvest strategy development, allow timely adaptive management decisions and increase the resilience of fisheries to the impacts of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-11-11

Cowell JM (2019)

Climate Change, School Health and School Nursing: A Call to Action.

The Journal of school nursing : the official publication of the National Association of School Nurses, 35(6):394.

RevDate: 2019-11-11

Wonneberger A, Meijers MHC, ART Schuck (2019)

Shifting public engagement: How media coverage of climate change conferences affects climate change audience segments.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

While it is often assumed that media attention for events, such as international climate change conferences, can influence public opinion, research studying changes in public opinion concerning climate change is scarce. Research on climate change audience segments and the theory of motivated reasoning suggest that media effects depend on the level of audience engagement with climate change. We analyze how exposure to media coverage of the COP21 affected public opinion in the Netherlands. Based on a two-wave online panel survey (N = 876), we identified five audience segments that varied in their degree of climate change beliefs, involvement, policy preferences, and behavioral intentions. Different media effects across segments were found indicating (dis)confirmation bias, specifically, for medium levels of positive and negative engagement. The findings indicate that important events may cause limited changes in public opinion and emphasize the importance of studying segment-specific and content-specific media effects.

RevDate: 2019-11-10

He J, Enomana H, Dupras J, et al (2019)

Measuring Recreation Benefit Loss under Climate Change with Revealed and Stated Behavior Data: The Case of Lac Saint-Pierre World Biosphere Reserve (Québec, Canada).

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-019-01219-x [Epub ahead of print].

Based on a case study carried out on the Lac Saint-Pierre (LSP) World Biosphere Reserve (Québec, Canada), this paper estimates ecosystem service loss, more precisely the loss related to cultural and recreational activities of the LSP due to the fall of its water level under the pressure of climate change. We measure two dimensions of this loss. As a first step, the extrapolation of our representative survey reports $100 million annual loss in terms of recreation revenue due to the trip reduction to LSP, which is about 60% of current level. Subsequently, the travel-cost data and the contingent behavior data are combined in a revealed and stated behavior panel random-effect estimation, which reports an additional loss measured by consumer surplus that visitors can obtain from their trips up to $232 million, signifying 42% of reduction in their current value.

RevDate: 2019-11-09

Stefanova A, Hesse C, Krysanova V, et al (2019)

Assessment of Socio-Economic and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Four European Lagoon Catchments.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-019-01188-1 [Epub ahead of print].

This study demonstrates the importance of considering potential land use and management changes in climate impact research. By taking into account possible trends of economic development and environmental awareness, we assess effects of global warming on water availability and quality in the catchments of four European lagoons: Ria de Aveiro (Portugal), Mar Menor (Spain), Vistula Lagoon (Poland and Russia), and Tyligulskyi Liman (Ukraine). Different setups of the process-based soil and water integrated model (SWIM), representing one reference and four socio-economic scenarios for each study area: the "business as usual", "crisis", "managed horizons", and "set-aside" scenarios are driven by sets of 15 climate scenarios for a reference (1971-2000) and near future (2011-2040) scenario period. Modeling results suggest a large spatial variability of potential impacts across the study areas, due to differences in the projected precipitation trends and the current environmental and socio-economic conditions. While climate change may reduce water and nutrients input to the Ria de Aveiro and Tyligulsyi Liman and increase water inflow to the Vistula Lagoon the socio-economic scenarios and their implications may balance out or reverse these trends. In the intensely managed Mar Menor catchment, climate change has no notable direct impact on water resources, but changes in land use and water management may certainly aggravate the current environmental problems. The great heterogeneity among results does not allow formulating adaptation or mitigation measures at pan-European level, as initially intended by this study. It rather implies the need of a regional approach in coastal zone management.

RevDate: 2019-11-09

Boland TM, JL Temte (2019)

Family Medicine Patient and Physician Attitudes Toward Climate Change and Health in Wisconsin.

Wilderness & environmental medicine pii:S1080-6032(19)30157-7 [Epub ahead of print].

INTRODUCTION: Climate change is an increasingly relevant public health issue attracting increasing amounts of attention. Despite family medicine being at the front line for public health, no recent studies have assessed the opinions of physicians and patients regarding climate change and health in the family medicine setting.

METHODS: Surveys were distributed to adult patients in the waiting rooms of 4 University of Wisconsin Department of Family Medicine and Community Health clinics. Four hundred three patient surveys were collected, for an 86% response rate. An online survey was distributed to all University of Wisconsin Department of Family Medicine and Community Health physicians. Fifty-eight surveys were collected for a 32% response rate.

RESULTS: Forty-four percent of patients believe climate change is currently affecting their community's health. Patients have high trust in their physician regarding environmental issues (median=4 out of 5), and 6% of patients ranked their physician as a top source of information on this topic. Sixty-four percent of physicians believe climate change is affecting their patients' health, and 17% are comfortable counseling patients about climate change and health. Although 71% of physicians believe climate change is relevant to primary care, 31% believe that physicians should have an active role in discussing climate change with patients.

CONCLUSIONS: Patients and physicians are concerned about climate change and its health implications. Patient data reveals that physicians are highly trusted but underutilized sources. However, physicians are unsure of their role in addressing this topic. Thus, a large opportunity exists for family physicians to educate patients on the emerging issue of climate change and health.

RevDate: 2019-11-08

Prieto I, JI Querejeta (2019)

Simulated climate change decreases nutrient resorption from senescing leaves.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Nutrient resorption is the process whereby plants recover nutrients from senescing leaves and reallocate them to storage structures or newer tissues. Elemental resorption of foliar N and P has been shown to respond to temperature and precipitation but we know remarkably little about the influence of warming and drought on the resorption of these and other essential plant macro- and micronutrients, which could alter the ability of species to recycle their nutrients. We conducted a 5-year manipulative field study to simulate predicted climate change conditions and studied the effects of warming (W), rainfall reduction (RR) and their combination (W + RR) on nutrient resorption efficiency in five coexisting shrub species in a semiarid shrubland. Both mature and senesced leaves showed significant reductions in their nutrient contents and an altered stoichiometry in response to climate change conditions. Warming (W, W + RR) reduced mature leaf N, K, Ca, S, Fe and Zn and senesced leaf N, Ca, Mg, S, Fe and Zn contents relative to ambient temperature conditions. Warming increased mature leaf C/N ratios and decreased N/P and C/P ratios and increased senesced leaf C/N and C/P ratios. Furthermore, W and W + RR reduced nutrient resorption efficiencies for N (6.3%), K (19.8%), S (70.9%) and increased Ca and Fe accumulation in senesced leaves (440% and 35.7%, respectively) relative to the control treatment. Rainfall reduction decreased the resorption efficiencies of N (6.7%), S (51%) and Zn (46%). Reductions in nutrient resorption efficiencies with warming and/or rainfall reduction were rather uniform and consistent across species. The negative impacts of warming and rainfall reduction on foliar nutrient resorption efficiency will likely cause an impairment of plant nutrient budgets and fitness across coexisting native shrubs in this nutrient-poor habitat, with probable implications for key ecosystem functions such as reductions in nutrient retention in vegetation, litter decomposition and nutrient cycling rates.

RevDate: 2019-11-08

Olmos M, Payne MR, Nevoux M, et al (2019)

Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

A major challenge in understanding the response of populations to climate change is to separate the effects of local drivers acting independently on specific populations, from the effects of global drivers that impact multiple populations simultaneously and thereby synchronize their dynamics. We investigated the environmental drivers and the demographic mechanisms of the widespread decline in marine survival rates of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) over the last four decades. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian life cycle model to quantify the spatial synchrony in the marine survival of 13 large groups of populations (called stock units, SU) from two continental stock-groupings (CSG) in North America (NA) and Southern Europe (SE) over the period 1971-2014. We found strong coherence in the temporal variation in post-smolt marine survival among the 13 SU of NA and SE. A common North Atlantic trend explains 37% of the temporal variability of the survivals for the 13 SU and declines by a factor 1.8 over the 1971-2014 time series. Synchrony in survival trends is stronger between SU within each CSG. The common trends at the scale of NA and SE capture 60% and 42% of the total variance of temporal variations, respectively. Temporal variations of the post-smolt survival are best explained by the temporal variations of sea surface temperature (SST, negative correlation) and net primary production indices (PP, positive correlation) encountered by salmon in common domains during their marine migration. Specifically, in the Labrador Sea/Grand Banks for NA populations 26% and 24% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively and in the Norwegian Sea for SE populations 21% and 12% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively. The findings support the hypothesis of a response of salmon populations to large climate induced changes in the North Atlantic simultaneously impacting populations from distant continental habitats.

RevDate: 2019-11-08

Alexander M (2019)

Sustainability and spinal cord injury: attending to climate change and disability.

Spinal cord series and cases, 5:88 pii:232.

RevDate: 2019-11-08

Góis AR, Santos FP, Pacheco JM, et al (2019)

Reward and punishment in climate change dilemmas.

Scientific reports, 9(1):16193 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-52524-8.

Mitigating climate change effects involves strategic decisions by individuals that may choose to limit their emissions at a cost. Everyone shares the ensuing benefits and thereby individuals can free ride on the effort of others, which may lead to the tragedy of the commons. For this reason, climate action can be conveniently formulated in terms of Public Goods Dilemmas often assuming that a minimum collective effort is required to ensure any benefit, and that decision-making may be contingent on the risk associated with future losses. Here we investigate the impact of reward and punishment in this type of collective endeavors - coined as collective-risk dilemmas - by means of a dynamic, evolutionary approach. We show that rewards (positive incentives) are essential to initiate cooperation, mostly when the perception of risk is low. On the other hand, we find that sanctions (negative incentives) are instrumental to maintain cooperation. Altogether, our results are gratifying, given the a-priori limitations of effectively implementing sanctions in international agreements. Finally, we show that whenever collective action is most challenging to succeed, the best results are obtained when both rewards and sanctions are synergistically combined into a single policy.

RevDate: 2019-11-08

Costain F (2019)

Farming and global warming.

The Veterinary record, 185(18):575-576.

RevDate: 2019-11-07

Murdoch A, Mantyka-Pringle C, S Sharma (2019)

The interactive effects of climate change and land use on boreal stream fish communities.

The Science of the total environment, 700:134518 pii:S0048-9697(19)34509-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Ongoing and projected climate change is likely to greatly alter co-occurring stressor mechanisms, yet these potential interactions remain poorly understood in natural freshwater systems worldwide. As the global biodiversity crisis deepens, successful conservation efforts will hinge on developing mechanistic multiple stressor frameworks that have been ground-truthed in natural systems containing complex species dynamics and ecological processes. Our study examined the combined and interacting effects of potential climate and land use stressors on boreal stream fishes using data from over 300 catchments across a broad 250,000 km2 region. To characterize boreal fish community health, we examined four indicators including species richness, total catch per unit effort, the proportion of lithophilic spawners (fish sensitive to sedimentation), and the assemblage tolerance index which provides a measurement of the overall community tolerance to disturbance. Land use stressors included total anthropogenic land use area and linear disturbance at multiple watershed scales as well as two site-specific habitat degradation indicators (dissolved oxygen and the proportion of fine substrate). Overall community richness and productivity were not negatively related to land use changes indicating potential compensatory dynamics (e.g. where intolerant species are replaced with more tolerant species as habitat quality degrades). In contrast, we observed declines for sensitive species, including highly valued salmonids, that varied depending on interactions between local climate, land use, and stream type. Sensitive species declines were concentrated in regions experiencing increased land use and warming, whereas increases were observed in cooler regions consistent with a subsidy-stress response. In addition, lithophilic spawners declined in watersheds experiencing warmer and wetter conditions owing to potential indirect effects on spawning habitat quality. Results from our study provide novel insight into complex climate and land use interactions occurring across a broad, real-world landscape, and highlight the potential for amplified species declines under future warming and land use scenarios.

RevDate: 2019-11-07

Woodward A (2019)

Climate change and the surgeon: what is the problem? Why is it so hard? What can be done?.

ANZ journal of surgery [Epub ahead of print].

We know very well what causes climate change, and in general terms, what the dangers are. This is a new kind of environmental problem, it is not like taking lead out of petrol, and it is important to understand why responding to climate change is so challenging. But that is no reason to give up: in fact there are many opportunities to intervene, including actions that can be taken by surgeons and other health professionals.

RevDate: 2019-11-07

Menezes-Silva PE, Loram-Lourenço L, Alves RDFB, et al (2019)

Different ways to die in a changing world: Consequences of climate change for tree species performance and survival through an ecophysiological perspective.

Ecology and evolution, 9(20):11979-11999 pii:ECE35663.

Anthropogenic activities such as uncontrolled deforestation and increasing greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for triggering a series of environmental imbalances that affect the Earth's complex climate dynamics. As a consequence of these changes, several climate models forecast an intensification of extreme weather events over the upcoming decades, including heat waves and increasingly severe drought and flood episodes. The occurrence of such extreme weather will prompt profound changes in several plant communities, resulting in massive forest dieback events that can trigger a massive loss of biodiversity in several biomes worldwide. Despite the gravity of the situation, our knowledge regarding how extreme weather events can undermine the performance, survival, and distribution of forest species remains very fragmented. Therefore, the present review aimed to provide a broad and integrated perspective of the main biochemical, physiological, and morpho-anatomical disorders that may compromise the performance and survival of forest species exposed to climate change factors, particularly drought, flooding, and global warming. In addition, we also discuss the controversial effects of high CO2 concentrations in enhancing plant growth and reducing the deleterious effects of some extreme climatic events. We conclude with a discussion about the possible effects that the factors associated with the climate change might have on species distribution and forest composition.

RevDate: 2019-11-07

Delgado MDM, Bettega C, Martens J, et al (2019)

Ecotypic changes of alpine birds to climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):16082 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-52483-0.

In endotherm animals, several traits are related to climate. For example, Bergmann's rule predicts a decrease in body size within species and across closely related species with increasing temperature, whereas Gloger's rule states that birds and mammals should be darker in humid and warm environments compared to colder and drier areas. However, it is still not clear whether ecotypic responses to variation in the local environment can also apply to morphological and colouration changes through time in response to climate change. We present a 100-year-long time series on morphological and melanin-based colours of snowfinch (325 Montifringilla, 92 Pyrgilauda and 30 Onychostruthus) museum specimens. Here we show that the tarsus length of the species has decreased and the saturation of the melanin-based colour has increased, which was correlated with the increase of temperature and precipitations. As ecotypic variations are tightly linked to individual behavioural and physiological responses to environmental variations, differently sized and coloured individuals are expected to be differently penalized by global changes. This study opens the pertinent question about whether ecotypic responses can enhance population persistence in the context of global change.

RevDate: 2019-11-07

Huang J, Zeng Q, Pan X, et al (2019)

Projections of the effects of global warming on the disease burden of ischemic heart disease in the elderly in Tianjin, China.

BMC public health, 19(1):1465 pii:10.1186/s12889-019-7678-0.

BACKGROUND: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is one of the leading causes of deaths worldwide and causes a tremendous disease burden. Temperature is an important environmental determinant among the many risk factors for IHD. However, the emerging temperature-related health risks of IHD in the elderly is limited because of the lack of estimates that integrate global warming and demographic change.

METHODS: Data on daily IHD deaths in the elderly aged ≥65 years and meteorological conditions were collected in Tianjin, a megacity of China, from 2006 to 2011. First, the baseline relationship between the temperature and years of life lost (YLL) from IHD was established. Then, future assessments were performed in combination with temperature projections for 19 global-scale climate models (GCMs) under 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2050s and 2070s.

RESULTS: Increased YLL from IHD in the elderly was found to be associated with future ambient temperatures. The annual temperature-related YLL from IHD in the 2050s and 2070s were higher than the baseline. For instance, increases of 4.5, 14.9 and 38.3% were found under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the 2070s. The most significant increases occurred in warm season months. The increase in heat-related YLL will not be completely offset, even with the 25% adaptation assumed. When considering demographic change, the temperature-related disease burden of IHD in the elderly will be exacerbated by 158.4 to 196.6% under 3 RCPs in the 2050s and 2070s relative to the baseline.

CONCLUSIONS: These findings have significant meaning for environmental and public health policy making and interventions towards the important issue of the health impacts of global warming on the elderly.

RevDate: 2019-11-06

Asadgol Z, Mohammadi H, Kermani M, et al (2019)

The effect of climate change on cholera disease: The road ahead using artificial neural network.

PloS one, 14(11):e0224813 pii:PONE-D-19-18846.

Climate change has been described to raise outbreaks of water-born infectious diseases and increases public health concerns. This study aimed at finding out these impacts on cholera infections by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) from 2021 to 2050. Daily data for cholera infection cases in Qom city, which is located in the center of Iran, were analyzed from 1998 to 2016. To determine the best lag time and combination of inputs, Gamma Test (GT) was applied. General circulation model outputs were utilized to project future climate pattern under two scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Statistical downscaling was done to produce high-resolution synthetic time series weather dataset. ANNs were applied for simulating the impact of climate change on cholera. The observed climate variables including maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were tagged as predictors in ANNs. Cholera cases were considered as the target outcome variable. Projected future (2020-2050) climate in previous step was carried out to assess future cholera incidence. A seasonal trend in cholera infection was seen. Our results elucidated that the best lag time was 21 days. According to the results of downscaling tool, future climate in the study area by 2050 will be warmer and wetter. Simulation of cholera cases indicated that there is a clear trend of increasing cholera cases under the worst scenario (RCP8.5) by the year 2050 and the highest cholera cases observe in warmer months. The precipitation was recognized as the most effective input variable by sensitivity analysis. We observed a significant correlation between low precipitation and cholera infection. There is a strong evidence to show that cholera disease is correlated with environment variables, as low precipitation and high temperatures in warmer months could provide the swifter bacterial replication. These conditions in Iran, especially in the central parts, may raise the cholera infection rates. Furthermore, ANNs is an executive tool to simulate the impact of climate change on cholera to estimate the future trend of cholera incidence for adopting protective measures in endemic areas.

RevDate: 2019-11-06

Dapilah F, JØ Nielsen (2019)

Climate change extremes and barriers to successful adaptation outcomes: Disentangling a paradox in the semi-arid savanna zone of northern Ghana.

Ambio pii:10.1007/s13280-019-01275-x [Epub ahead of print].

The literature on barriers to climate change adaptation has largely focused on non-climatic barriers and has provided less insight into climate-induced barriers. Responding to this lacuna, this paper examines the connections between climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers in northern Ghana. Results from the qualitative fieldwork show that climatic changes have been accompanied by increases in climate change extremes (CCEs) over the last three decades. In order to adapt, smallholder farmers use improved crop varieties and other support strategies. Paradoxically, however, CCEs have undermined these strategies in several instances, causing crop yields to fall short of their actual potential and leading to financial indebtedness. Therefore, the results showcase that overcoming non-climatic barriers to the uptake of agricultural adaptation strategies is a necessary but insufficient condition for achieving successful adaptation outcomes. This is the case since new barriers to the adaptation process are constantly emerging, and CCEs are an example of this.

RevDate: 2019-11-06

Myhre G, Alterskjær K, Stjern CW, et al (2019)

Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming.

Scientific reports, 9(1):16063 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-52277-4.

The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such events occur in a warmer world is however less well established, and the combined effect of changes in frequency and intensity on the total amount of rain falling as extreme precipitation is much less explored, in spite of potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations and climate model simulations to document strong increases in the frequencies of extreme precipitation events occurring on decadal timescales. Based on observations we find that the total precipitation from these intense events almost doubles per degree of warming, mainly due to changes in frequency, while the intensity changes are relatively weak, in accordance to previous studies. This shift towards stronger total precipitation from extreme events is seen in observations and climate models, and increases with the strength - and hence the rareness - of the event. Based on these results, we project that if historical trends continue, the most intense precipitation events observed today are likely to almost double in occurrence for each degree of further global warming. Changes to extreme precipitation of this magnitude are dramatically stronger than the more widely communicated changes to global mean precipitation.

RevDate: 2019-11-05

Winkler DE, Lin MY, Delgadillo J, et al (2019)

Early life history responses and phenotypic shifts in a rare endemic plant responding to climate change.

Conservation physiology, 7(1):coz076 pii:coz076.

Changes in species ranges are anticipated with climate change, where in alpine settings, fragmentation and contraction are likely. This is especially true in high altitude biodiversity hotspots, where warmer growing seasons and increased drought events may negatively impact populations by limiting regeneration. Here, we test for high-altitude species responses to the interactive effects of warming and drought in Heterotheca brandegeei, a perennial cushion plant endemic to alpine outcroppings in Sierra de San Pedro Mártir National Park, Baja California, México. We exposed H. brandegeei seedlings to experimental warming and drought conditions to document early life history responses and the species ability to tolerate climate change. Drought negatively influenced seedling growth, with overall reductions in above- and belowground biomass. Warming and drought each led to substantial reductions in leaf development. At the same time, individuals maintained high specific leaf area and carbon investment in leaves across treatments, suggesting that existing phenotypic variation within populations may be high enough to withstand climate change. However, warming and drought interacted to negatively influence leaf-level water-use efficiency (WUE). Seedling mortality rates were nearly three times higher in warming and drought treatments, suggesting bleak prospects for H. brandegeei populations in future climate conditions. Overall, our results suggest H. brandegeei populations may experience substantial declines under future warmer and drier conditions. Some individuals may be able to establish, albeit, as smaller, more stressed plants. These results further suggest that warming alone may not be as consequential to populations as drought will be in this already water-limited system.

RevDate: 2019-11-05

James RS, J Tallis (2019)

The likely effects of thermal climate change on vertebrate skeletal muscle mechanics with possible consequences for animal movement and behaviour.

Conservation physiology, 7(1):coz066 pii:coz066.

Climate change can involve alteration in the local temperature that an animal is exposed to, which in turn may affect skeletal muscle temperature. The underlying effects of temperature on the mechanical performance of skeletal muscle can affect organismal performance in key activities, such as locomotion and fitness-related behaviours, including prey capture and predator avoidance. The contractile performance of skeletal muscle is optimized within a specific thermal range. An increased muscle temperature can initially cause substantial improvements in force production, faster rates of force generation, relaxation, shortening, and production of power output. However, if muscle temperature becomes too high, then maximal force production and power output can decrease. Any deleterious effects of temperature change on muscle mechanics could be exacerbated by other climatic changes, such as drought, altered water, or airflow regimes that affect the environment the animal needs to move through. Many species will change their location on a daily, or even seasonal basis, to modulate the temperature that they are exposed to, thereby improving the mechanical performance of their muscle. Some species undergo seasonal acclimation to optimize muscle mechanics to longer-term changes in temperature or undergo dormancy to avoid extreme climatic conditions. As local climate alters, species either cope with the change, adapt, avoid extreme climate, move, or undergo localized extinction events. Given that such outcomes will be determined by organismal performance within the thermal environment, the effects of climate change on muscle mechanics could have a major impact on the ability of a population to survive in a particular location.

RevDate: 2019-11-04

Linnakoski R, Kasanen R, Dounavi A, et al (2019)

Editorial: Forest Health Under Climate Change: Effects on Tree Resilience, and Pest and Pathogen Dynamics.

Frontiers in plant science, 10:1157.

RevDate: 2019-11-04

Margesin R, MA Niklinska (2019)

Editorial: Elevation Gradients: Microbial Indicators of Climate Change?.

Frontiers in microbiology, 10:2405.

RevDate: 2019-11-04

Rodríguez J, Gallampois CMJ, Timonen S, et al (2019)

Corrigendum: Effects of Organic Pollutants on Bacterial Communities Under Future Climate Change Scenarios.

Frontiers in microbiology, 10:2388.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2018.02926.].

RevDate: 2019-11-04

Parncutt R (2019)

The Human Cost of Anthropogenic Global Warming: Semi-Quantitative Prediction and the 1,000-Tonne Rule.

Frontiers in psychology, 10:2323.

Greenhouse-gas emissions are indirectly causing future deaths by multiple mechanisms. For example, reduced food and water supplies will exacerbate hunger, disease, violence, and migration. How will anthropogenic global warming (AGW) affect global mortality due to poverty around and beyond 2100? Roughly, how much burned fossil carbon corresponds to one future death? What are the psychological, medical, political, and economic implications? Predicted death tolls are crucial for policy formulation, but uncertainty increases with temporal distance from the present and estimates may be biased. Order-of-magnitude estimates should refer to literature from diverse relevant disciplines. The carbon budget for 2°C AGW (roughly 1012 tonnes carbon) will indirectly cause roughly 109 future premature deaths (10% of projected maximum global population), spread over one to two centuries. This zeroth-order prediction is relative and in addition to existing preventable death rates. It lies between likely best- and worst-case scenarios of roughly 3 × 108 and 3 × 109, corresponding to plus/minus one standard deviation on a logarithmic scale in a Gaussian probability distribution. It implies that one future premature death is caused every time roughly 1,000 (300-3,000) tonnes of carbon are burned. Therefore, any fossil-fuel project that burns millions of tons of carbon is probably indirectly killing thousands of future people. The prediction may be considered valid, accounting for multiple indirect links between AGW and death rates in a top-down approach, but unreliable due to the uncertainty of climate change feedback and interactions between physical, biological, social, and political climate impacts (e.g., ecological cascade effects and co-extinction). Given universal agreement on the value of human lives, a death toll of this unprecedented magnitude must be avoided at all costs. As a clear political message, the "1,000-tonne rule" can be used to defend human rights, especially in developing countries, and to clarify that climate change is primarily a human rights issue.

RevDate: 2019-11-04

Larsson P, von Seth J, Hagen IJ, et al (2019)

Consequences of past climate change and recent human persecution on mitogenomic diversity in the arctic fox.

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 374(1788):20190212.

Ancient DNA provides a powerful means to investigate the timing, rate and extent of population declines caused by extrinsic factors, such as past climate change and human activities. One species probably affected by both these factors is the arctic fox, which had a large distribution during the last glaciation that subsequently contracted at the start of the Holocene. More recently, the arctic fox population in Scandinavia went through a demographic bottleneck owing to human persecution. To investigate the consequences of these processes, we generated mitogenome sequences from a temporal dataset comprising Pleistocene, historical and modern arctic fox samples. We found no evidence that Pleistocene populations in mid-latitude Europe or Russia contributed to the present-day gene pool of the Scandinavian population, suggesting that postglacial climate warming led to local population extinctions. Furthermore, during the twentieth-century bottleneck in Scandinavia, at least half of the mitogenome haplotypes were lost, consistent with a 20-fold reduction in female effective population size. In conclusion, these results suggest that the arctic fox in mainland Western Europe has lost genetic diversity as a result of both past climate change and human persecution. Consequently, it might be particularly vulnerable to the future challenges posed by climate change. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

RevDate: 2019-11-03

Ahmad N, Shaffril HAM, Abu Samah A, et al (2019)

The adaptation towards climate change impacts among islanders in Malaysia.

The Science of the total environment, 699:134404 pii:S0048-9697(19)34395-5 [Epub ahead of print].

The climate change phenomenon has been occurring in every part of the world, including Malaysia. In particular, changes such as rising temperature, sea level rise, and unstable rain pattern are proven to affect the socio-economic routine of the community. Hence, it is necessary to learn how to adapt to it, especially those who heavily rely on nature stability. The present study examined the adaptation towards climate change among islanders in Malaysia. In addition, the current research was performed quantitatively using a developed questionnaire as the main data collection tool. In this case, a total of 400 islanders were selected as the respondents through a multi-stage sampling technique. The results revealed that the respondents recorded a moderate to high mean score for adaptation aspects namely awareness, dependency and structure. Accordingly, a number of recommendations that were highlighted can be utilized as a basis to develop community adaptation policy that is in line with the islanders' need, ability, and interests.

RevDate: 2019-11-04

Doberstein B, Tadgell A, A Rutledge (2019)

Managed retreat for climate change adaptation in coastal megacities: A comparison of policy and practice in Manila and Vancouver.

Journal of environmental management, 253:109753 pii:S0301-4797(19)31471-9 [Epub ahead of print].

'Managed retreat' is gaining considerable attention as part of megacities' climate change adaptation and resilience enhancement toolkits, and as a policy option for disaster risk reduction in coastal regions. The overarching objective of managed retreat is to reduce the exposure of people and assets to flooding, storm surges and sea level rise by retreating from these threats in a planned fashion. Managed retreat is one of four main options covered in the 'PARA' (protect/accommodate/retreat/avoid) framework explained in this paper, which can be used to enhance resilience in coastal megacities. In this paper, qualitative research methods were used to collect primary data on the feasibility of using managed retreat for two case study coastal megacities: Manila, Philippines, and Vancouver, Canada. Both case studies review the risk context of each city, local climate change adaptation/disaster risk reduction (CCA/DRR) policies linked to managed retreat, examples of managed retreat practice, and barriers to managed retreat identified through primary or secondary data analysis. Comparisons between the two cases are then carried out, and similarities and differences are highlighted. The paper concludes by suggesting possible means by which barriers to managed retreat might be overcome.

RevDate: 2019-11-02

Talchabhadel R, R Karki (2019)

Correction to: Assessing climate boundary shifting under climate change scenarios across Nepal.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 191(12):707 pii:10.1007/s10661-019-7907-0.

The original version of this article unfortunately contained an error. All "50s" and "70s" were replaced by "1950s" and "1970s" throughout the published paper.

RevDate: 2019-11-02

Perkins R (2019)

Farming and global warming.

The Veterinary record, 185(17):542-543.

RevDate: 2019-11-01

Langvall O, M Ottosson Löfvenius (2019)

Long-term standardized forest phenology in Sweden: a climate change indicator.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-019-01817-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Because climate change alters patterns of vegetative growth, long-term phenological measurements and observations can provide important data for analyzing its impact. Phenological assessments are usually made as records of calendar dates when specific phase changes occur. Such assessments have benefits and are used in Citizen Science monitoring. However, these kinds of data often have low statistical precision when describing gradual changes. Frequent monitoring of the phenological traits of forest trees and berries as they undergo gradual change is needed to acquire good temporal resolution of transitions relative to other factors, such as susceptibility to frosts, insects, and fungi, and the use of berries as a food resource. Intensive weekly monitoring of the growth of apical and branch buds and the elongation of shoots and leaves on four tree species, and the abundance of flowers and berries of bilberry and lingonberry, has been performed in Sweden since 2006. Here, we present quantitative methods for interpolating such data, which detail the gradual changes between assessments in order to describe average rates of development and amount of interannual variation. Our analysis has shown the active growth period of trees to differ with latitude. We also observed a change in the timing of the maximum numbers of ripening berries and their successive decline. Data from tree phenology assessments can be used to recommend best forestry practice and to model tree growth, while berry data can be used to estimate when food resources for animals are most available.

RevDate: 2019-11-01

Storz MA (2019)

Mitigating climate change: using the physician's tool of the trade.

The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners, 69(688):557 pii:69/688/557.

RevDate: 2019-10-31

Byrne M, Foo SA, Ross PM, et al (2019)

Limitations of cross and multigenerational plasticity for marine invertebrates faced with global climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Although cross generation (CGP) and multigeneration (MGP) plasticity have been identified as mechanisms of acclimation to global change, the weight of evidence indicates that parental conditioning over generations is not a panacea to rescue stress sensitivity in offspring. For many species there were no benefits of parental conditioning. Even when improved performance was observed, this waned over time within a generation or across generations and fitness declined. On the other hand, CGP and MGP studies identified resilient species with stress tolerant genotypes in wild populations and selected family lines. Several bivalves possess favourable stress tolerance and phenotypically plastic traits potentially associated with genetic adaptation to life in habitats where they routinely experience temperature and/or acidification stress. These traits will be important to help 'climate proof' shellfish ventures. Species that are naturally stress tolerant and those that naturally experience a broad range of environmental conditions are good candidates to provide insights into the physiological and molecular mechanisms involved in CGP and MGP. It is challenging to conduct ecologically relevant global change experiments over the long times commensurate with the pace of changing climate. As a result, many studies present stressors in a shock-type exposure at rates much faster than projected scenarios. With more gradual stressor introduction over longer experimental durations and in context with conditions species are currently acclimatized and/or adapted to, the outcomes for sensitive species might differ. We highlight the importance to understand primordial germ cell development and the timing of gametogenesis with respect to stressor exposure. Although multigenerational exposure to global change stressors currently appears limited as a universal tool to rescue species in the face of changing climate, natural proxies of future conditions (upwelling zones, CO2 vents, naturally warm habitats) show that phenotypic adjustment and/or beneficial genetic selection is possible for some species, indicating complex plasticity-adaptation interactions.

RevDate: 2019-10-31

Helm B, Van Doren BM, Hoffmann D, et al (2019)

Evolutionary Response to Climate Change in Migratory Pied Flycatchers.

Current biology : CB pii:S0960-9822(19)31122-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is rapidly advancing spring phenology [1-3] but at different rates in different species [1, 4]. Whether these advances are solely driven by phenotypic plasticity [2, 5] or also involve evolution is hotly debated (e.g., [5-7]). In some species, including avian long-distance migrants, plastic responses to early springs may be constrained by inherited circannual timing programs [8, 9], making evolutionary adjustment the only viable mechanism for keeping pace with shifting phenology [5, 10]. This constraint may be contributing to population declines in migratory species [5, 10-12]. To test whether a migrant's timing program has evolved [10, 12], we replicated an experimental study of the annual cycle of long-distance migratory pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) after 21 years of warming. Flycatchers are a model for studying constrained ecological responses to climate change [6, 10, 12, 13]. We show that the phase of the flycatcher circannual clock controlling spring moult, migration, and reproductive timing advanced by 9 days. A nearby wild population mirrored these changes, concurrently advancing egg-laying by 11 days. Furthermore, the time window during which wild flycatcher reproductive timing was most sensitive to ambient temperature advanced by 0.8 days year-1. These results support a role of phenotypic evolution [14] in changing spring phenology [15, 16]. We suggest that the timing programs of long-distance migratory birds may have greater adaptive potential than previously thought, leaving some scope for evolutionary rescue in a changing climate.

RevDate: 2019-10-31

Cursach JA, Arriagada A, Rau JR, et al (2019)

Predicting the potential distribution of the endemic seabird Pelecanus thagus in the Humboldt Current Large Marine Ecosystem under different climate change scenarios.

PeerJ, 7:e7642 pii:7642.

Background: The effects of global climate change on species inhabiting marine ecosystems are of growing concern, especially for endemic species that are sensitive due to restricted distribution. One method employed for determining the effects of climate change on the distribution of these organisms is species distribution modeling.

Methods: We generated a model to evaluate the potential geographic distribution and breeding distribution of the Peruvian pelican (Pelecanus thagus). Based on maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), we identified the environmental factors that currently affect its geographic distribution and breeding. Then we predicted its future distribution range under two climate change scenarios: moderate (rcp 2.6) and severe (rcp 8.5).

Results: The mean daytime temperature range and marine primary productivity explain the current potential distribution and breeding of the pelican. Under the future climate change scenarios, the spatial distribution of the pelican is predicted to slightly change. While the breeding distribution of the pelican can benefit in the moderate scenario, it is predicted to decrease (near -20 %) in the severe scenario.

Discussion: The current potential geographic distribution of the pelican is influenced to a large extent by thermal conditions and primary productivity. Under the moderate scenario, a slight increase in pelican breeding distribution is predicted. This increase in habitable area is explained by the climatic conditions in southern Chile, and those climatic conditions will likely be similar to the current conditions of the central coast of Chile. We predict that the coasts of southern Chile will constitute an important refuge for the conservation of the Peruvian pelican under future climate change scenarios.

RevDate: 2019-10-30

Shigetomi Y, Ohno H, Chapman AJ, et al (2019)

Clarifying Demographic Impacts on Embodied and Materially Retained Carbon towards Climate Change Mitigation.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

Modern lifestyles demand a number of products derived from petroleum-based sources that eventually cause carbon emissions. The quantification of lifestyle and household consumption impacts upon carbon emissions from both the embodied CO2 (EC) and materially retained carbon (MRC) viewpoints is critical to deriving amelioration policies and meeting emission reduction goals. This study, for the first time, details a methodology to estimate both EC and MRC for Japan, focusing on petrochemicals and woody products utilizing the time series input-output table, physical value tables and the national survey of family income and expenditure, leveraging time series input-output-based material flow analysis (IO-MFA) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA). Findings elucidated hot spots of deleterious consumption by age of householder and the critical factors which underpin them including intensity effects, pattern effects and demographic shifts over time. Although demographic shifts associated with an aging, shrinking population in Japan decreased EC and MRC, the negative effect reduced in size over time during 1990-2005. Policy implications identify the potential to mitigate approximately 21% of required household emission reductions by 2030 through strategies including recycling initiatives and the recovery of carbon from products covered within current recycling laws and hot spot sectors which are not currently considered such as apparel.

RevDate: 2019-10-30

Masó G, Kaufmann J, Clavero H, et al (2019)

Age-dependent effects of moderate differences in environmental predictability forecasted by climate change, experimental evidence from a short-lived lizard (Zootoca vivipara).

Scientific reports, 9(1):15546 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-51955-7.

Whether and how differences in environmental predictability affect life-history traits is controversial and may depend on mean environmental conditions. Solid evidence for effects of environmental predictability are lacking and thus, the consequences of the currently observed and forecasted climate-change induced reduction of precipitation predictability are largely unknown. Here we experimentally tested whether and how changes in the predictability of precipitation affect growth, reproduction, and survival of common lizard Zootoca vivipara. Precipitation predictability affected all three age classes. While adults were able to compensate the treatment effects, yearlings and juvenile females were not able to compensate negative effects of less predictable precipitation on growth and body condition, respectively. Differences among the age-classes' response reflect differences (among age-classes) in the sensitivity to environmental predictability. Moreover, effects of environmental predictability depended on mean environmental conditions. This indicates that integrating differences in environmental sensitivity, and changes in averages and the predictability of climatic variables will be key to understand whether species are able to cope with the current climatic change.

RevDate: 2019-10-30

Reum JCP, McDonald PS, Long WC, et al (2019)

Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change.

Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology [Epub ahead of print].

The development of species recovery plans requires considering likely outcomes of different management interventions, but the complicating effects of climate change are rarely evaluated. Here, we demonstrate how Qualitative Network Models (QNMs) can be deployed to support decision-making when data, time, and funding limitations restrict use of more demanding quantitative methods. We used QNMs to evaluate management interventions intended to promote rebuilding of a collapsed stock of blue king crab Paralithodes platypus (BKC) around the Pribilof Islands (eastern Bering Sea) and show how their potential efficacy may change when considered under climate change. Based on stakeholder input and a literature review, we constructed a QNM that described the life cycle of BKC, key ecological interactions, and potential climate change impacts. In addition, we applied a simple and computationally efficient simulation procedure that incorporates information on relative interaction strengths using inequality conditions into predictions. Under a scenario of no climate change, predicted increases in BKC were reliable under one intervention scenario: stock enhancement as part of a BKC hatchery program. However, when climate change was accounted for the intervention was not able to counteract its adverse impacts, which had an overall negative effect on BKC. The remaining scenarios related to changes in fishing effort on BKC predators. For those scenarios, BKC outcomes were unreliable but climate change further decreased the probability of observing recovery. We performed sensitivity analyses to identify key sources of prediction uncertainty which can be used to inform research prioritization, guide model refinement, and aid the development of more targeted quantitative models. QNMs are useful options when data are limited, but they remain underutilized in the conservation arena. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-10-30

Wilkinson AJK, Braggins R, Steinbach I, et al (2019)

Costs of switching to low global warming potential inhalers. An economic and carbon footprint analysis of NHS prescription data in England.

BMJ open, 9(10):e028763 pii:bmjopen-2018-028763.

OBJECTIVES: Metered-dose inhalers (MDIs) contain propellants which are potent greenhouse gases. Many agencies propose a switch to alternative, low global warming potential (GWP) inhalers, such as dry powder inhalers (DPIs). We aimed to analyse the impact on greenhouse gas emissions and drug costs of making this switch.

SETTING: We studied National Health Service prescription data from England in 2017 and collated carbon footprint data on inhalers commonly used in England.

DESIGN: Inhalers were separated into different categories according to their mechanisms of action (eg, short-acting beta-agonist). Within each category we identified low and high GWP inhalers and calculated the cost and carbon impact of changing to low GWP inhalers. We modelled scenarios for swapping proportionally according to the current market share of each equivalent DPI (model 1) and switching to the lowest cost pharmaceutically equivalent DPI (model 2). We also reviewed available data on the carbon footprint of inhalers from scientific publications, independently certified reports and patents to provide more accurate carbon footprint information on different types of inhalers.

RESULTS: If MDIs using HFA propellant are replaced with the cheapest equivalent DPI, then for every 10% of MDIs changed to DPIs, drug costs decrease by £8.2M annually. However if the brands of DPIs stay the same as 2017 prescribing patterns, for every 10% of MDIs changed to DPIs, drug costs increase by £12.7M annually. Most potential savings are due to less expensive long-acting beta-agonist (LABA)/inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) inhalers. Some reliever inhalers (eg, Ventolin) have a carbon footprint over 25 kg CO2e per inhaler, while others use far less 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane (HFA134a) (eg, Salamol) with a carbon footprint of <10 kg CO2e per inhaler. 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-Heptafluoropropane (HFA227ea) LABA/ICS inhalers (eg, Flutiform) have a carbon footprint over 36 kg CO2e, compared with an equivalent HFA134a combination inhaler (eg, Fostair) at <20 kg CO2e. For every 10% of MDIs changed to DPIs, 58 kt CO2e could be saved annually in England.

CONCLUSIONS: Switching to DPIs would result in large carbon savings and can be achieved alongside reduced drug costs by using less expensive brands. Substantial carbon savings can be made by using small volume HFA134a MDIs, in preference to large volume HFA134a MDIs, or those containing HFA227ea as a propellant.

RevDate: 2019-10-28

Potter S, Solvik K, Erb A, et al (2019)

Climate change decreases the cooling effect from post-fire albedo in boreal North America.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Fire is a primary disturbance in boreal forests and generates both positive and negative climate forcings. The influence of fire on surface albedo is a predominantly negative forcing in boreal forests, and one of the strongest overall, due to increased snow exposure in the winter and spring months. Albedo forcings are spatially and temporally heterogeneous and depend on a variety of factors related to soils, topography, climate, land cover/vegetation type, successional dynamics, time since fire, season, and fire severity. However, how these variables interact to influence albedo is not well understood, and quantifying these relationships and predicting post-fire albedo becomes increasingly important as the climate changes and management frameworks evolve to consider climate impacts. Here we developed a MODIS-derived "blue sky" albedo product and a novel machine learning modeling framework to predict fire-driven changes in albedo under historical and future climate scenarios across boreal North America. Converted to radiative forcing (RF), we estimated that fires generate an annual mean cooling of -1.77 ± 1.35 W/m2 from albedo under historical climate conditions (1971 - 2000) integrated over 70 years post-fire. Increasing post-fire albedo along a south-north climatic gradient was offset by a nearly opposite gradient in solar insolation, such that large-scale spatial patterns in RF were minimal. Our models suggest climate change will lead to decreases in mean annual post-fire albedo, and hence a decreasing strength of the negative RF, a trend dominated by decreased snow cover in spring months. Considering the range of future climate scenarios and model uncertainties, we estimate that for fires burning in the current era (2016) the cooling effect from long-term post-fire albedo will be reduced by 15%-28% due to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-10-27

Islam MA, Hoque MA, Ahmed KM, et al (2019)

Impact of Climate Change and Land Use on Groundwater Salinization in Southern Bangladesh-Implications for Other Asian Deltas.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-019-01220-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Pervasive salinity in soil and water is affecting agricultural yield and the health of millions of delta dwellers in Asia. This is also being exacerbated by climate change through increases in sea level and tropical storm surges. One consequence of this has been a widespread introduction of salt water shrimp farming. Here, we show, using field data and modeling, how changes in climate and land use are likely to result in increased salinization of shallow groundwater in SE Asian mega-deltas. We also explore possible adaptation options. We find that possible future increase of episodic inundation events, combined with salt water shrimp farming, will cause rapid salinization of groundwater in the region making it less suitable for drinking water and irrigation. However, modified land use and water management practices can mitigate the impacts on groundwater, as well as the overlying soil, from future salinization. The study therefore provides guidance for adaptation planning to reduce future salinization in Asian deltas.

RevDate: 2019-10-27

Swartz MK (2019)

Taking on Climate Change Through a Health Care Lens.

Journal of pediatric health care : official publication of National Association of Pediatric Nurse Associates & Practitioners, 33(6):623.

RevDate: 2019-10-26

Doelman JC, Stehfest E, van Vuuren DP, et al (2019)

Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Afforestation is considered a cost-effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade-offs with food security are often not considered. Here, we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO2 /yr at 200 US$/tCO2 in 2050 leading to large-scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO2 cumulative up to 2,100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock-in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub-Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade-offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade-offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.

RevDate: 2019-10-26

Reyns W, Rineau F, Spaak JW, et al (2019)

Food Web Uncertainties Influence Predictions of Climate Change Effects on Soil Carbon Sequestration in Heathlands.

Microbial ecology pii:10.1007/s00248-019-01444-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Carbon cycling models consider soil carbon sequestration a key process for climate change mitigation. However, these models mostly focus on abiotic soil processes and, despite its recognized critical mechanistic role, do not explicitly include interacting soil organisms. Here, we use a literature study to show that even a relatively simple soil community (heathland soils) contains large uncertainties in temporal and spatial food web structure. Next, we used a Lotka-Volterra-based food web model to demonstrate that, due to these uncertainties, climate change can either increase or decrease soil carbon sequestration to varying extents. Both the strength and direction of changes strongly depend on (1) the main consumer's (enchytraeid worms) feeding preferences and (2) whether decomposers (fungi) or enchytraeid worms are more sensitive to stress. Hence, even for a soil community with a few dominant functional groups and a simulation model with a few parameters, filling these knowledge gaps is a critical first step towards the explicit integration of soil food web dynamics into carbon cycling models in order to better assess the role soils play in climate change mitigation.

RevDate: 2019-10-26

Fukuda M, K Fukuda (2019)

The male to female ratio of newborn infants in Japan in relation to climate change, earthquakes, fetal deaths, and singleton male and female birth weights.

Early human development pii:S0378-3782(19)30515-8 [Epub ahead of print].

We have updated our work regarding climate extremes in Japan and the consequences of the huge earthquake in the Fukushima Prefecture in year 2011. We have interchangeably used the term sex ratio at birth, sex ratio of births. This ratio describes the secondary sex ratio, whereas the primary sex ratio designates the male/female ratio at fertilization. The underlying mechanisms of declines in sex ratios at birth may be related to decreased fertilization of XY embryos by reduced motility of Y spermatozoa from male factor approach and increased cortisol secretion prior to conception from a female factor approach. We have shown that the declines in sex ratio at birth were observed 9 months after the Kobe earthquake but 10 months after the Tohoku and Kumamoto earthquakes. The temperature difference may be associated positively with sex ratio of fetal deaths and negatively with sex ratio of births and with singleton male and female birth weights.

RevDate: 2019-10-26

Li X, Sha J, Zhao Y, et al (2019)

Estimating the Responses of Hydrological and Sedimental Processes to Future Climate Change in Watersheds with Different Landscapes in the Yellow River Basin, China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(20): pii:ijerph16204054.

This study concerned the sediment issue of the Yellow River basin. The responses of hydrological and sedimental processes to future climate change in two upland watersheds with different dominant landscapes were estimated. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios with different radiative forcing levels were considered. The outputs of eleven Global Climate Models (GCMs) were used to represent the future climate status of the 2050s and 2070s, and an ensemble means was achieved to avoid uncertainty. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was employed to downscale the outputs of GCMs for future site-scale daily weather data estimations. The Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) model was employed to model the streamflow and sediment yields under various scenarios and periods. The results showed that there would be generally hotter and wetter weather conditions in the future. Increased erosion and sediment yields could be found in the study area, with lesser increments in sediment in woodland than in cultivated field. The peak of sediment would appear in the 2050s, and integrated measures for sediment control should be implemented to reduce erosion and block delivery. The multi-model approach proposed in this study had reliable performance and could be applied in other similar areas with modest data conditions.

RevDate: 2019-10-25

McDermott-Levy R, Kolanowski AM, Fick DM, et al (2019)

Addressing the Health Risks of Climate Change in Older Adults.

Journal of gerontological nursing, 45(11):21-29.

Our climate is changing. These changes have an impact on health, especially in vulnerable populations such as older adults. Many older adults lack the physical, cognitive, social, and economic resources to avoid and/or mitigate the effects of exposure to extreme weather events. The purpose of the current article is to help nurses understand climate change and how that relates to the need for specific interventions to support climate adaptation for the older adult population. A model of exposure, contact to stressors, and adaptive capacity are used to address the health needs of older adults in the face of climate change. Gaps in nursing knowledge, resources for nurses, and a proposed agenda for research and practice in climate change are offered. Gerontological nurses are in an important position to lessen the harm of climate change in older adults through practice, research, and policy. [Journal of Gerontological Nursing, 45(11), 21-29.].

RevDate: 2019-10-25

Fick DM (2019)

Caring for Our Earth and Ourselves: Focusing Attention on Climate Change and Older Adults.

Journal of gerontological nursing, 45(11):2-3.

RevDate: 2019-10-24

Xu L, Wang X, Liu J, et al (2019)

Identifying the trade-offs between climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban land use planning: An empirical study in a coastal city.

Environment international, 133(Pt B):105162 pii:S0160-4120(19)31352-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Cities play a significant role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Urban land planning shapes the urban form and is considered to be an effective approach for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Yet, there is little knowledge about what urban forms can reduce both greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate stresses while considering trade-offs between them. Here, we investigate the role of urban land use in both climate change mitigation and adaptation. In particular, we assess quantitatively the competition between strategies for mitigation and adaptation and identify potential win-win solutions in land use responses. Using a coastal city as a case study, we find that the land use strategies for unilateral mitigation or adaptation can cause contradicting consequences with respect to the reductions in GHG emissions and climate stresses, i.e. reductions in GHGs could increase climate stresses or vice versa. Poorly integrated strategies potentially may compromise international efforts to meet the Climate Action in the Sustainable Development Goals. Properly integrated mitigation and adaptation strategies, or climate-sensitive land use planning, however, can lead to win-win outcomes and eventually achieve co-benefits. Yet, any co-benefits will gradually diminish if there is a delay in climate-sensitive land use planning, implying growing GHGs and intensified climate stresses. Our analysis indicates that integrating climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban land use needs to be enacted as soon as possible: any delays in implementation reduce the window to act to maximize the co-benefits.

RevDate: 2019-10-24

Randall CJ, Toth LT, Leichter JJ, et al (2019)

Upwelling buffers climate change impacts on coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific.

Ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Corals of the eastern tropical Pacific live in a marginal and oceanographically dynamic environment. Along the Pacific coast of Panamá, stronger seasonal upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá in the east transitions to weaker upwelling in the Gulf of Chiriquí in the west, resulting in complex regional oceanographic conditions that drive differential coral-reef growth. Over millennial timescales, reefs in the Gulf of Chiriquí recovered more quickly from climatic disturbances compared with reefs in the Gulf of Panamá. In recent decades, corals in the Gulf of Chiriquí have also had higher growth rates than in the Gulf of Panamá. As the ocean continues to warm, however, conditions could shift to favor the growth of corals in the Gulf of Panamá, where upwelling may confer protection from high-temperature anomalies. Here we describe the recent spatial and temporal variability in surface oceanography of nearshore environments in Pacific Panamá and compare those conditions with the dynamics of contemporary coral-reef communities, during and after the 2016 coral-bleaching event. Although both gulfs have warmed significantly over the last 150 years, thermal maxima in the Gulf of Chiriquí are increasing faster, and ocean temperatures there are becoming more variable than in the recent past. In contrast to historical trends, we found that coral cover, coral survival, and coral growth-rates were all significantly higher in the Gulf of Panamá. Corals bleached extensively in the Gulf of Chiriquí following the 2015-2016 El Niño event, whereas upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá moderated the high temperatures caused by El Niño, allowing the corals largely to escape thermal stress. As the climate continues to warm, upwelling zones may offer a temporary and localized refuge from the thermal impacts of climate change, while reef growth in the rest of the eastern tropical Pacific continues to decline.

RevDate: 2019-10-23

Palu S, H Mahmoud (2019)

Impact of climate change on the integrity of the superstructure of deteriorated U.S. bridges.

PloS one, 14(10):e0223307 pii:PONE-D-19-13333.

Bridges in America are aging and deteriorating, causing substantial financial strain on federal resources and tax payers' money. Of the various deterioration issues in bridges, one of the most common and costly is malfunctioning of expansion joints, connecting two bridge spans, due to accumulation of debris and dirt in the joint. Although expansion joints are small components of bridges' superstructure, their malfunction can result in major structural problems and when coupled with thermal stresses, the demand on the structural elements could be further amplified. Intuitively, these additional demands are expected to even worsen if one considers potential future temperature rise due to climate change. Indeed, it has been speculated that climate change is likely to have negative effect on bridges worldwide. However, to date there has been no serious attempts to quantify this effect on a larger spatial scale with no studies pertaining to the integrity of the main load carrying girders. In this study, we attempt to quantify the effect of clogged joints and climate change on failure of the superstructure of a class of steel bridges around the U.S. We surprisingly find that potentially most of the main load carrying girders, in the analyzed bridges, could reach their ultimate capacity when subjected to service load and future climate changes. We further discover that out of nine U.S. regions, the most vulnerable bridges, in a descending order, are those located in the Northern Rockies & Plains, Northwest and Upper Midwest. Ultimately, this study proposes an approach to establish a priority order of bridge maintenance and repair to manage limited funding among a vast inventory in an era of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-10-23

Ortega JCG, Machado N, Diniz-Filho JAF, et al (2019)

Meta-analyzing the likely cross-species responses to climate change.

Ecology and evolution, 9(19):11136-11144 pii:ECE35617.

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have different performances in predicting potential geographic distributions. Here we meta-analyzed the likely effects of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of 1,205 bird species from the Neotropical region, modeled using eight ENMs and three Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). We considered the variability in ENMs performance to estimate a weighted mean difference between potential geographic distributions for baseline and future climates. On average, potential future ranges were projected to be from 25.7% to 44.5% smaller than current potential ranges across species. However, we found that 0.2% to 18.3% of the total variance in range shifts occurred "within species" (i.e., owing to the use of different modeling techniques and climate models) and 81.7% to 99.8% remained between species (i.e., it could be explained by ecological correlates). Using meta-analytical techniques akin to regression, we also showed that potential range shifts are barely predicted by bird biological traits. We demonstrated that one can combine and reduce species-specific effects with high uncertainty in ENMs and also explore potential causes of climate change effect on species using meta-analytical tools. We also highlight that the search for powerful correlates of climate change-induced range shifts can be a promising line of investigation.

RevDate: 2019-10-22

Smith P, Calvin K, Nkem J, et al (2019)

Which practices co-deliver food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and combat land-degradation and desertification?.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

There is a clear need for transformative change in the land management and food production sectors to address the global land challenges of climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, combatting land-degradation and desertification, and delivering food security (referred to hereafter as "land challenges"). We assess the potential for 40 practices to address these land challenges and find that: Nine options deliver medium to large benefits for all four land challenges. A further two options, have no global estimates for adaptation, but have medium to large benefits for all other land challenges. Five options have large mitigation potential (> 3 GtCO2 e yr-1) without adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Five options have moderate mitigation potential, with no adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Sixteen practices have large adaptation potential (>25 million people benefit), without adverse side-effects on other land challenges. Most practices can be applied without competing for available land. However, seven options could result in competition for land. A large number of practices do not require dedicated land, including several land management options, all value chain options, and all risk management options. Four options could greatly increase competition for land if applied at a large scale, though the impact is scale and context specific, highlighting the need for safeguards to ensure that expansion of land for mitigation does not impact natural systems and food security. A number of practices such as increased food productivity, dietary change and reduced food loss and waste, can reduce demand for land conversion, thereby potentially freeing-up land and creating opportunities for enhanced implementation of other practices, making them important components of portfolios of practices to address the combined land challenges.

RevDate: 2019-10-22

Chersich MF, Scorgie F, Wright CY, et al (2019)

Climate change and adolescents in South Africa: The role of youth activism and the health sector in safeguarding adolescents' health and education.

South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde, 109(9):615-619.

RevDate: 2019-10-22

Dwirahmadi F, Rutherford S, Phung D, et al (2019)

Understanding the Operational Concept of a Flood-Resilient Urban Community in Jakarta, Indonesia, from the Perspectives of Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation and Development Agencies.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(20): pii:ijerph16203993.

Climate change-related extreme events such as floods have and will continue to present a great challenge to disaster risk management. There is a pressing need to develop a robust management strategy via enhancing the resiliency of the community, particularly in the context of complex urban environments, like Jakarta. Resilience is conceptualized within specific contexts and uniquely tailored to the targeted setting, yet research regarding the operational concept of a flood-resilient community in the context of Jakarta remains limited. This paper will elaborate this operational concept through understanding the desirable features and influential barriers of a flood-resilient community through the lenses of three main stakeholder groups: disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and development. It will also discuss the ways in which the synergies that exist across these groups can be enhanced. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were applied in this study, and multiple sources of data were used. The findings indicate that these groups share common views regarding the importance of human aspects being central to resilience building efforts. We argue there is an urgent need to shift the flood resilience building paradigm towards building community resilience from the people and to apply a collaborative governance approach to facilitate effective partnership between the actors involved.

RevDate: 2019-10-22

He S, Qin T, Liu F, et al (2019)

Effects of Slope Ecological Restoration on Runoff and Its Response to Climate Change.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(20): pii:ijerph16204017.

Slope ecological restoration and climate change are important factors affecting the hydrological processes of the Huangshui River Basin in Qinghai province, China. How to quantitatively identify the impact of slope ecological restoration on runoff and whether slope ecological restoration can mitigate the impact of future climate change on runoff are both very important. In this paper, the Huangshui River above the center of Minhe county was taken as the research area, and the Pinus tabulaeformis and shrubs were taken as the main forest land types of slope ecological restoration. First, based on the law of forest land variation, the construction scales of slope ecological restoration in different periods were identified. The influence of slope ecological restoration on runoff was then quantitatively evaluated by using a distributed hydrological model. Second, the future climate scenarios of five general circulation models (GCMs) under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) from 2021 to 2050 were selected and modified by model integration. Combined with the slope ecological restoration scenarios, the influence of slope ecological restoration on runoff under future climate scenarios was explored. The results showed that the effect of slope ecological restoration was significant. Compared with 1980, the area of slope ecological restoration increased by 24% in 2017. Under the present climate conditions (1960-2017), different periods of slope ecological restoration have an effect on the process of runoff in the wet season (June, July, August, and September) and dry season (January, February, March, and December), which eliminates the maximum, replenishes the minimum, and reduces the variability of runoff processes in the watershed. Under the future climate scenario (2021-50), slope ecological restoration will reduce runoff. On the other hand, climate change will increase runoff, and the combination of the two effects will have a certain offsetting effect. On the whole, comparing the influence of slope ecological restoration on the runoff process with that of climate change in different seasons, due to the main influence of slope ecological restoration, the runoff decreased by about 55% in the temperate season (April, May, October, and November), and increased by about 50% in the dry season or wet season due to the main influence of future climate scenarios.

RevDate: 2019-10-22

Ayllón D, Railsback SF, Harvey BC, et al (2019)

Mechanistic simulations predict that thermal and hydrological effects of climate change on Mediterranean trout cannot be offset by adaptive behaviour, evolution, and increased food production.

The Science of the total environment, 693:133648.

Streamflow is a main driver of fish population dynamics and is projected to decrease in much of the northern hemisphere, especially in the Mediterranean region, due to climate change. However, predictions of future climate effects on cold-water freshwater fish populations have typically focused only on the ecological consequences of increasing temperatures, overlooking the concurrent and interacting effects of climate-driven changes in streamflow regimes. Here, we present simulations that contrasted the consequences of changes in thermal regime alone versus the combined effects of changes in thermal regime and streamflow for resident trout populations in distinct river types with different sensitivities to climatic change (low-altitude main river vs. high-altitude headwaters). We additionally assessed the buffering effect of increased food production that may be linked to warming. We used an eco-genetic individual-based model that integrates the behavioural and physiological effects of extrinsic environmental drivers -temperature and flow- with intrinsic dynamics -density-dependence, phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary responses - across the entire trout life cycle, with Mediterranean brown trout Salmo trutta as the model species. Our simulations indicated that: (1) Hydrological change is a critical dimension of climate change for the persistence of trout populations, in that neither river type supported viable populations under strong rates of flow change, even under scenarios of increased food production. (2) Climate-change-related environmental change most affects the largest, oldest trout via increased metabolic costs and decreased energy inputs. In both river types, populations persisted under extreme warming alone but became dominated by younger, smaller fish. (3) Density-dependent, plastic and evolutionary changes in phenology and life-history traits provide trout populations with important resilience to warming, but strong concurrent shifts in streamflow could exceed the buffering conferred by such intrinsic dynamics.

RevDate: 2019-10-21

Kim KH, YJ Koh (2019)

An Integrated Modeling Approach for Predicting Potential Epidemics of Bacterial Blossom Blight in Kiwifruit under Climate Change.

The plant pathology journal, 35(5):459-472.

The increasing variation in climatic conditions under climate change directly influences plant-microbe interactions. To account for as many variables as possible that may play critical roles in such interactions, the use of an integrated modeling approach is necessary. Here, we report for the first time a local impact assessment and adaptation study of future epidemics of kiwifruit bacterial blossom blight (KBB) in Jeonnam province, Korea, using an integrated modeling approach. This study included a series of models that integrated both the phenological responses of kiwifruit and the epidemiological responses of KBB to climatic factors with a 1 km resolution, under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Our results indicate that the area suitable for kiwifruit cultivation in Jeonnam province will increase and that the flowering date of kiwifruit will occur increasingly earlier, mainly due to the warming climate. Future epidemics of KBB during the predicted flowering periods were estimated using the Pss-KBB Risk Model over the predicted suitable cultivation regions, and we found location-specific, periodic outbreaks of KBB in the province through 2100. Here, we further suggest a potential, scientifically-informed, long-term adaptation strategy using a cultivar of kiwifruit with a different maturity period to relieve the pressures of future KBB risk. Our results clearly show one of the possible options for a local impact assessment and adaptation study using multiple models in an integrated way.

RevDate: 2019-10-21

Hu X, Sejas SA, Cai M, et al (2019)

Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim.

Climate dynamics, 52(3-4):2005-2016.

The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

RevDate: 2019-10-19

Pliūra A, Jankauskienė J, Bajerkevičienė G, et al (2019)

Response of juveniles of seven forest tree species and their populations to different combinations of simulated climate change-related stressors: spring-frost, heat, drought, increased UV radiation and ozone concentration under elevated CO2 level.

Journal of plant research pii:10.1007/s10265-019-01146-2 [Epub ahead of print].

The study aimed to assess response of juvenile progeny of seven forest tree species, Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies, Betula pendula, Alnus glutinosa, Populus tremula, Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior, and their populations to different combinations of climate change-related multiple stressors, simulated in a phytotron under elevated CO2 concentration: (1) heat + elevated humidity (HW); (2) heat + frost + drought (HFD); (3) heat + elevated humidity + increased UV-B radiation doses + elevated ozone concentration (HWUO); and (4) heat + frost + drought + increased UV-B radiation doses + elevated ozone concentration (HFDUO). Effects of the complex treatments, species and species-by-treatment interaction were highly significant in most of the growth, physiological and biochemical traits studied, indicating general and species-specific responses to the applied treatments. For deciduous trees, height increment was much higher under HW treatment than in ambient conditions (control) indicating a positive effect of elevated temperature and better water and CO2 availability. HFD treatment caused reduction of height increment in comparison to HW treatment in most species except for Q. robur and F. excelsior which benefited from lower humidity. Treatments HWUO and HFDUO have caused substantial damages to leaves in fast growing deciduous P. tremula, A. glutinosa and B. pendula, and resulted in their lower height increment than in HW treatment, although it was the same or even higher than that in the control. Rates of photosynthesis in most of the tree species were greatest in HFD treatment. A lower photosynthetic rate (compared to control) was observed in B. pendula, P. tremula and F. excelsior in HW treatment, and in most species-in HWUO treatment. Compared to control, intrinsic water use efficiency in all treatments was significantly lower in P. tremula, A. glutinosa and F. excelsior and higher in conifers P. sylvestris and P. abies. Significant population-by-treatment interactions found for most traits showed variation in response of populations, implying that this reflects adaptive potential of each tree species. The observed responses may not always be considered as adaptive as deteriorating growth of some populations or species may lead to loss of their competitiveness thus compromising regeneration and natural successions.

RevDate: 2019-10-19

Sun C, Jiang Z, Li W, et al (2019)

Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C.

Scientific reports, 9(1):14982 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-50036-z.

The 1.5 °C global warming target proposed by the Paris Agreement has raised worldwide attention and inspired numerous studies to assess corresponding climate changes for different regions of the world. But CMIP5 models based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are 'transient simulations' and cannot reflect the response of climate warming stabilized at 1.5 °C. The current work presents an assessment of extreme temperature changes in China with simulations from 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project specially conceived for global warming levels stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. When global warming stabilizes at 1.5 °C/2.0 °C, the areal-mean temperature for whole China increases by about 0.94 °C/1.59 °C (relative to present period, taken from 2006-2015). Notable increase regions are mainly found in Northwest and Northeast-North China, but warm spell duration increases mostly in Southeast China. The effect of the additional 0.5 °C warming is particularly investigated and compared between the transient and stabilized simulations. Changes of mean and extreme temperature are larger in transient simulations than in stabilized simulations. The uncertainty range is also narrower in stabilized simulations. Under stabilized global warming scenario, extreme hot event with return period of 100 years in the present climate becomes event occurring every 4.79 (1.5 °C warming level) and 1.56 years (2.0 °C warming level), extreme cold event with return period of 10 years becomes event occurring every 67 years under 1.5 °C warming and is unlikely to occur under 2.0 °C warming. For geographic distribution, the occurrence probabilities of extreme (hot and cold) events mainly change in the Tibetan Plateau, and the extreme cold events also change in Northeast and Southeast China.

RevDate: 2019-10-19

Junk J, Goergen K, A Krein (2019)

Future Heat Waves in Different European Capitals Based on Climate Change Indicators.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(20): pii:ijerph16203959.

Changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves have shown substantial negative impacts on public health. At the same time, climate change towards increasing air temperatures throughout Europe will foster such extreme events, leading to the population being more exposed to them and societies becoming more vulnerable. Based on two climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5) we analysed the frequency and intensity of heat waves for three capital cities in Europe representing a North-South transect (London, Luxembourg, Rome). We used indices proposed by the Expert Team on Sector-Specific Climate Indices of the World Meteorological Organization to analyze the number of heat waves, the number of days that contribute to heat waves, the length of the longest heat waves, as well as the mean temperature during heat waves. The threshold for the definition of heat waves is calculated based on a reference period of 30 years for each of the three cities, allowing for a direct comparison of the projected changes between the cities. Changes in the projected air temperature between a reference period (1971-2000) and three future periods (2001-2030 near future, 2031-2060 middle future, and 2061-2090 far future) are statistically significant for all three cities and both emission scenarios. Considerable similarities could be identified for the different heat wave indices. This directly affects the risk of the exposed population and might also negatively influence food security and water supply.

RevDate: 2019-10-18

Williams JA, Kao JY, MB Omary (2019)

How can individuals and the GI community reduce climate change?.

RevDate: 2019-10-18

Godinho MA, Murthy S, C Ali Mohammed (2019)

Academic health policy debates for local climate change leadership.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 3(10):e407.

RevDate: 2019-10-18

Brown DJ, Donner DM, Ribic CA, et al (2019)

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler.

Ecology and evolution, 9(18):10263-10276 pii:ECE35547.

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.

RevDate: 2019-10-18

Naoe S, Tayasu I, Sakai Y, et al (2019)

Downhill seed dispersal by temperate mammals: a potential threat to plant escape from global warming.

Scientific reports, 9(1):14932 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-51376-6.

Vertical seed dispersal, i.e. seed dispersal towards a higher or lower altitude, is considered a critical process for plant escape from climate change. However, studies exploring vertical seed dispersal are scarce, and thus, its direction, frequency, and mechanisms are little known. In the temperate zone, evaluating vertical seed dispersal of animal-dispersed plants fruiting in autumn and/or winter is essential considering the dominance of such plants in temperate forests. We hypothesized that their seeds are dispersed towards lower altitudes because of the downhill movement of frugivorous animals following the autumn-to-winter phenology of their food plants which proceeds from the mountain tops to the foot in the temperate zone. We evaluated the vertical seed dispersal of the autumn-fruiting wild kiwi, Actinidia arguta, which is dispersed by temperate mammals. We collected dispersed seeds from mammal faeces in the Kanto Mountains of central Japan and estimated the distance of vertical seed dispersal using the oxygen isotope ratios of the dispersed seeds. We found the intensive downhill seed dispersal of wild kiwi by all seed dispersers, except the raccoon dog (bear: mean -393.1 m; marten: -245.3 m; macaque: -98.5 m; and raccoon dog: +4.5 m). Mammals with larger home ranges dispersed seeds longer towards the foot of the mountains. Furthermore, we found that seeds produced at higher altitudes were dispersed a greater distance towards the foot of the mountains. Altitudinal gradients in autumn-to-winter plant phenology and other mountain characteristics, i.e. larger surface areas and more attractive human crops at lower altitudes compared to higher altitudes, were considered drivers of downhill seed dispersal via animal movement. Strong downhill seed dispersal by mammals suggests that populations of autumn-to-winter fruiting plants dispersed by animals may not be able to sufficiently escape from current global warming in the temperate zone.

RevDate: 2019-10-18

Sathyendranath S, Brewin RJW, Brockmann C, et al (2019)

An Ocean-Colour Time Series for Use in Climate Studies: The Experience of the Ocean-Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI).

Sensors (Basel, Switzerland), 19(19): pii:s19194285.

Ocean colour is recognised as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS); and spectrally-resolved water-leaving radiances (or remote-sensing reflectances) in the visible domain, and chlorophyll-a concentration are identified as required ECV products. Time series of the products at the global scale and at high spatial resolution, derived from ocean-colour data, are key to studying the dynamics of phytoplankton at seasonal and inter-annual scales; their role in marine biogeochemistry; the global carbon cycle; the modulation of how phytoplankton distribute solar-induced heat in the upper layers of the ocean; and the response of the marine ecosystem to climate variability and change. However, generating a long time series of these products from ocean-colour data is not a trivial task: algorithms that are best suited for climate studies have to be selected from a number that are available for atmospheric correction of the satellite signal and for retrieval of chlorophyll-a concentration; since satellites have a finite life span, data from multiple sensors have to be merged to create a single time series, and any uncorrected inter-sensor biases could introduce artefacts in the series, e.g., different sensors monitor radiances at different wavebands such that producing a consistent time series of reflectances is not straightforward. Another requirement is that the products have to be validated against in situ observations. Furthermore, the uncertainties in the products have to be quantified, ideally on a pixel-by-pixel basis, to facilitate applications and interpretations that are consistent with the quality of the data. This paper outlines an approach that was adopted for generating an ocean-colour time series for climate studies, using data from the MERIS (MEdium spectral Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) sensor of the European Space Agency; the SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide-Field-of-view Sensor) and MODIS-Aqua (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-Aqua) sensors from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (USA); and VIIRS (Visible and Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA). The time series now covers the period from late 1997 to end of 2018. To ensure that the products meet, as well as possible, the requirements of the user community, marine-ecosystem modellers, and remote-sensing scientists were consulted at the outset on their immediate and longer-term requirements as well as on their expectations of ocean-colour data for use in climate research. Taking the user requirements into account, a series of objective criteria were established, against which available algorithms for processing ocean-colour data were evaluated and ranked. The algorithms that performed best with respect to the climate user requirements were selected to process data from the satellite sensors. Remote-sensing reflectance data from MODIS-Aqua, MERIS, and VIIRS were band-shifted to match the wavebands of SeaWiFS. Overlapping data were used to correct for mean biases between sensors at every pixel. The remote-sensing reflectance data derived from the sensors were merged, and the selected in-water algorithm was applied to the merged data to generate maps of chlorophyll concentration, inherent optical properties at SeaWiFS wavelengths, and the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm. The merged products were validated against in situ observations. The uncertainties established on the basis of comparisons with in situ data were combined with an optical classification of the remote-sensing reflectance data using a fuzzy-logic approach, and were used to generate uncertainties (root mean square difference and bias) for each product at each pixel.

RevDate: 2019-10-17

Kaye TN, Bahm MA, Thorpe AS, et al (2019)

Population extinctions driven by climate change, population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases inaccurate.

PloS one, 14(10):e0210378 pii:PONE-D-18-36398.

Loss of biological diversity through population extinctions is a global phenomenon that threatens many ecosystems. Managers often rely on databases of rare species locations to plan land use actions and conserve at-risk taxa, so it is crucial that the information they contain is accurate and dependable. However, small population sizes, long gaps between surveys, and climate change may be leading to undetected extinctions of many populations. We used repeated survey records for a rare but widespread orchid, Cypripedium fasciculatum (clustered lady's slipper), to model population extinction risk based on elevation, population size, and time between observations. Population size and elevation were negatively associated with extinction, while extinction probability increased with time between observations. We interpret population losses at low elevations as a potential signal of climate change impacts. We used this model to estimate the probability of persistence of populations across California and Oregon, and found that 39%-52% of the 2415 populations reported in databases from this region are likely extinct. Managers should be aware that the number of populations of rare species in their databases is potentially an overestimate, and consider resurveying these populations to document their presence and condition, with priority given to older reports of small populations, especially those at low elevations or in other areas with high vulnerability to climate or land cover change.

RevDate: 2019-10-17

Johnson RJ, Stenvinkel P, Andrews P, et al (2019)

Fructose Metabolism as a Common Evolutionary Pathway of Survival associated with climate change, food shortage and droughts.

Journal of internal medicine [Epub ahead of print].

Mass extinctions occur frequently in natural history. While studies of animals that became extinct can be informative, it is the survivors that provide clues for mechanisms of adaptation when conditions are adverse. Here we describe a survival pathway used by many species as a means for providing adequate fuel and water, while also providing protection from a decrease in oxygen availability. Fructose, whether supplied in the diet (primarily fruits and honey), or endogenously (via activation of the polyol pathway) preferentially shifts the organism towards the storing of fuel (fat, glycogen) that can be used to provide energy and water at a later date. Fructose causes sodium retention and raises blood pressure and likely helped survival in the setting of dehydration or salt deprivation. By shifting energy production from the mitochondria to glycolysis, fructose reduced oxygen demands to aid survival in situations where oxygen availability is low. The actions of fructose are driven in part by vasopressin and the generation of uric acid. Twice in history, mutations occurred during periods of mass extinction that enhanced the activity of fructose to generate fat, with the first being a mutation in vitamin C metabolism during the Cretaceous Paleogene Extinction (65 million years ago) and the second being a mutation in uricase that occurred during the Middle Miocene Disruption (12-14 million years ago). Today, the excessive intake of fructose due to the availability of refined sugar and high fructose corn syrup is driving "burden of life style" diseases, including obesity, diabetes, and high blood pressure.

RevDate: 2019-10-17

Chen YR, Xie HM, Luo HL, et al (2019)

[Impacts of climate change on the distribution of Cymbidium kanran and the simulation of distribution pattern].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 30(10):3419-3425.

In this study, data of 19 climatic factors were downloaded from the World Climate website. A total of 233 Cymbidium kanran distribution data were obtained through online review and field visits. Using MaxEnt model and combined with ArcGIS spatial analysis technology, the potential distribution area and distribution pattern of C. kanran in different periods were simulated, as well as its distribution during the last glacial period and 2070. The results showed that the curve indexes (AUC) value of the model training set was 0.957, and the AUC value of the verification set was 0.953, indicating that the prediction accuracy of the model was very high. The current distribution of C. kanran was mostly affected by the driest quarter precipitation, mean annual precipitation, wettest quarter precipitation, and mean annual temperature range. The contribution rates were 50.3%, 15.9%, 8.4% and 4.4%, respectively, with the total contribution rate being 79.0%. In the last glacial period, C. kanran mainly distributed in Wuyi Mountain, Luojing Mountain, Nanling, Taiwan's five major mountains and some hills in the northern part of Guangxi. From now to 2070, the distribution of C. kanran area will decrease by 22.4%. The southwestern part of Guangxi, the central part of Yunnan, and the junctions of Jiangxi, Fujian and Guangdong provinces will expand, while that in eastern Jiangxi, western Fujian, and the border between these two provinces will shrink.

RevDate: 2019-10-16

Bastin JF, Clark E, Elliott T, et al (2019)

Correction: Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues.

PloS one, 14(10):e0224120 pii:PONE-D-19-28148.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217592.].

RevDate: 2019-10-16

Torres MA (2019)

Implications of ARTIC: Is This the Beginning of a Climate Change?.

RevDate: 2019-10-16

Timonen H, Karjalainen P, Aalto P, et al (2019)

Adaptation of Black Carbon Footprint Concept Would Accelerate Mitigation of Global Warming.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-10-16

Fan D, Zhong H, Hu B, et al (2019)

Agro-ecological suitability assessment of Chinese Medicinal Yam under future climate change.

Environmental geochemistry and health pii:10.1007/s10653-019-00437-w [Epub ahead of print].

Chinese Medicinal Yam (CMY) has been prescribed as medicinal food for thousand years in China by Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) practitioners. Its medical benefits include nourishing the stomach and spleen to improve digestion, replenishing lung and kidney, etc., according to the TCM literature. As living standard rises and public health awareness improves in recent years, the potential medicinal benefits of CMY have attracted increasing attention in China. It has been found that the observed climate change in last several decades, together with the change in economic structure, has driven significant shift in the pattern of the traditional CMY planting areas. To identify suitable planting area for CMY in the near future is critical for ensuring the quality and supply quantity of CMY, guiding the layout of CMY industry, and safeguarding the sustainable development of CMY resources for public health. In this study, we first collect 30-year records of CMY varieties and their corresponding phenology and agro-meteorological observations. We then consolidate these data and use them to enrich and update the eco-physiological parameters of CMY in the agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model. The updated CMY varieties and AEZ model are validated using the historical planting area and production under observed climate conditions. After the successful validation, we use the updated AEZ model to simulate the potential yield of CMY and identify the suitable planting regions under future climate projections in China. This study shows that regions with high ecological similarity to the genuine and core producing areas of CMY mainly distribute in eastern Henan, southeastern Hebei, and western Shandong. The climate suitability of these areas will be improved due to global warming in the next 50 years, and therefore, they will continue to be the most suitable CMY planting regions.

RevDate: 2019-10-16

Bongaarts J, R Sitruk-Ware (2019)

Climate change and contraception.

BMJ sexual & reproductive health, 45(4):233-235.

RevDate: 2019-10-15

Reynolds JL (2019)

Solar geoengineering to reduce climate change: a review of governance proposals.

Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 475(2229):20190255.

Although solar geoengineering (alternatively 'solar radiation management' or 'solar radiation modification') appears to offer a potentially effective, inexpensive and technologically feasible additional response to climate change, it would pose serious physical risks and social challenges. Governance of its research, development and deployment is thus salient. This article reviews proposals for governing solar geoengineering. Its research may warrant dedicated governance to facilitate effectiveness and to reduce direct and socially mediated risks. Because states are not substantially engaging with solar geoengineering, non-state actors can play important governance roles. Although the concern that solar geoengineering would harmfully lessen abatement of greenhouse gas emissions is widespread, what can be done to reduce such displacement remains unclear. A moratorium on outdoor activities that would surpass certain scales is often endorsed, but an effective one would require resolving some critical, difficult details. In the long term, how to legitimately make decisions regarding whether, when and how solar geoengineering would be used is central, and suggestions how to do so diverge. Most proposals to govern commercial actors, who could provide goods and services for solar geoengineering, focus on intellectual property policy. Compensation for possible harm from outdoor activities could be through liability or a compensation fund. The review closes with suggested lines of future inquiry.

RevDate: 2019-10-15

Garrido R, Bacigalupo A, Peña-Gómez F, et al (2019)

Potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two wild vectors of Chagas disease in Chile: Mepraia spinolai and Mepraia gajardoi.

Parasites & vectors, 12(1):478 pii:10.1186/s13071-019-3744-9.

BACKGROUND: Mepraia gajardoi and Mepraia spinolai are endemic triatomine vector species of Trypanosoma cruzi, a parasite that causes Chagas disease. These vectors inhabit arid, semiarid and Mediterranean areas of Chile. Mepraia gajardoi occurs from 18° to 25°S, and M. spinolai from 26° to 34°S. Even though both species are involved in T. cruzi transmission in the Pacific side of the Southern Cone of South America, no study has modelled their distributions at a regional scale. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the potential geographical distribution of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi under current and future climate scenarios.

METHODS: We used the Maxent algorithm to model the ecological niche of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi, estimating their potential distributions from current climate information and projecting their distributions to future climatic conditions under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Future predictions of suitability were constructed considering both higher and lower public health risk situations.

RESULTS: The current potential distributions of both species were broader than their known ranges. For both species, climate change projections for 2070 in RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios showed different results depending on the methodology used. The higher risk situation showed new suitable areas, but the lower risk situation modelled a net reduction in the future potential distribution areas of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi.

CONCLUSIONS: The suitable areas for both species may be greater than currently known, generating new challenges in terms of vector control and prevention. Under future climate conditions, these species could modify their potential geographical range. Preventive measures to avoid accidental human vectorial transmission by wild vectors of T. cruzi become critical considering the uncertainty of future suitable areas projected in this study.

RevDate: 2019-10-14

Bujosa Bestard A, A Riera Font (2019)

Estimation of implicit discount rates for climate change adaptation policies.

Journal of environmental management, 252:109671 pii:S0301-4797(19)31389-1 [Epub ahead of print].

This article used evidence from tourists' willingness to pay (WTP) for a set of climate change adaptation policies to estimate implicit discount rates under different discounting structures. A choice experiment with two different split samples framed at two different time horizons was used to analyse how WTP changes as a function of the timing of the expected benefits. Results confirm that individuals are time sensitive to different horizons and provide support for the use of a very low discount rate in the evaluation of policies having effects in the long and very long run and show that the social acceptability of climate change (CC) adaptation policies can be affected by the timing of the benefits and the use of one or another discounting model.

RevDate: 2019-10-12

Giejsztowt J, Classen AT, JR Deslippe (2019)

Climate change and invasion may synergistically affect native plant reproduction.

Ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Global change drivers can interact in synergistic ways, yet the interactive effect of global change drivers, such as climatic warming and species invasions, on plant pollination are poorly represented in experimental studies. We paired manipulative experiments to probe two mechanistic pathways through which plant invasion and warming may alter phenology and reproduction of native plant species. In the first, we tested how experimental warming (+1.7°C) modulated flowering phenology and how this affected flowering overlap between a native plant (Dracophyllum subulatum) and an invasive plant (Calluna vulgaris L.). In the second experiment we explored how variation in the ratio of native to invasive flowers, and the overall quantity of resources in a floral patch, affected the reproduction of the native species. We hypothesised that the flowering overlap of native and invasive plants would be altered by warming, given that invading plants typically exhibit greater phenological plasticity than native plants. Further, we hypothesised that pollination of native plant flowers would decrease in floral patches dominated by invasive plant flowers, but that this effect would depend on total floral density in the patch. As predicted, the invasive plant had a stronger phenological response to experimental warming than the native plant, resulting in increased flowering overlap between the native the invasive plants. There was a four-fold increase in the number of native flowers co-flowering with high densities of invasive flowers suggesting native plant competition for pollinators with invasive plants under a warmed climate. In the second experiment, we found depressed seed weights of the native species in high density floral patches that were dominated by invasive flowers relative to high density floral patches dominated by native flowers. At low floral densities, seed weight of native plants was unaffected by invasion. Together, these results demonstrate that by increasing their phenological overlap, warming may enhance the magnitude of existing competition for pollination exerted by an invasive plant on a native plant, particularly in plant patches with high floral density. Our results illustrate a novel pathway through which global change drivers can operate synergistically to alter an important ecosystem service - pollination.

RevDate: 2019-10-12

Yin Q, Wang J, Ren Z, et al (2019)

Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change.

Nature communications, 10(1):4640 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-12663-y.

Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality relationship. It reflects human adaptability to local climate. The existing MMT estimates were usually based on case studies in data rich regions, and limited evidence about MMT was available at a global scale. It is still unclear what the most significant driver of MMT is and how MMT will change under global climate change. Here, by analysing MMTs in 420 locations covering six continents (Antarctica was excluded) in the world, we found that although the MMT changes geographically, it is very close to the local most frequent temperature (MFT) in the same period. The association between MFT and MMT is not changed when we adjust for latitude and study year. Based on the MFT~MMT association, we estimate and map the global distribution of MMTs in the present (2010s) and the future (2050s) for the first time.

RevDate: 2019-10-12

Costain F (2019)

'Livestock are not the global warming enemy'.

The Veterinary record, 185(14):449.

ffinlo Costain argues that the focus on ruminant methane in causing global warming is ill-informed and in fact restoration of grass-based systems can result in net zero emissions from UK agriculture by 2030.

RevDate: 2019-10-11

Hoegh-Guldberg O, Jacob D, Taylor M, et al (2019)

The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 365(6459):.

Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have led to a global mean surface temperature 1.0°C higher than during the pre-industrial period. We expand on the recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C and review the additional risks associated with higher levels of warming, each having major implications for multiple geographies, climates, and ecosystems. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C would be required to maintain substantial proportions of ecosystems and would have clear benefits for human health and economies. These conclusions are relevant for people everywhere, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where the escalation of climate-related risks may prevent the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.


RJR Experience and Expertise


Robbins holds BS, MS, and PhD degrees in the life sciences. He served as a tenured faculty member in the Zoology and Biological Science departments at Michigan State University. He is currently exploring the intersection between genomics, microbial ecology, and biodiversity — an area that promises to transform our understanding of the biosphere.


Robbins has extensive experience in college-level education: At MSU he taught introductory biology, genetics, and population genetics. At JHU, he was an instructor for a special course on biological database design. At FHCRC, he team-taught a graduate-level course on the history of genetics. At Bellevue College he taught medical informatics.


Robbins has been involved in science administration at both the federal and the institutional levels. At NSF he was a program officer for database activities in the life sciences, at DOE he was a program officer for information infrastructure in the human genome project. At the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, he served as a vice president for fifteen years.


Robbins has been involved with information technology since writing his first Fortran program as a college student. At NSF he was the first program officer for database activities in the life sciences. At JHU he held an appointment in the CS department and served as director of the informatics core for the Genome Data Base. At the FHCRC he was VP for Information Technology.


While still at Michigan State, Robbins started his first publishing venture, founding a small company that addressed the short-run publishing needs of instructors in very large undergraduate classes. For more than 20 years, Robbins has been operating The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project, a web site dedicated to the digital publishing of critical works in science, especially classical genetics.


Robbins is well-known for his speaking abilities and is often called upon to provide keynote or plenary addresses at international meetings. For example, in July, 2012, he gave a well-received keynote address at the Global Biodiversity Informatics Congress, sponsored by GBIF and held in Copenhagen. The slides from that talk can be seen HERE.


Robbins is a skilled meeting facilitator. He prefers a participatory approach, with part of the meeting involving dynamic breakout groups, created by the participants in real time: (1) individuals propose breakout groups; (2) everyone signs up for one (or more) groups; (3) the groups with the most interested parties then meet, with reports from each group presented and discussed in a subsequent plenary session.


Robbins has been engaged with photography and design since the 1960s, when he worked for a professional photography laboratory. He now prefers digital photography and tools for their precision and reproducibility. He designed his first web site more than 20 years ago and he personally designed and implemented this web site. He engages in graphic design as a hobby.

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E-mail: RJR8222@gmail.com

Collection of publications by R J Robbins

Reprints and preprints of publications, slide presentations, instructional materials, and data compilations written or prepared by Robert Robbins. Most papers deal with computational biology, genome informatics, using information technology to support biomedical research, and related matters.

Research Gate page for R J Robbins

ResearchGate is a social networking site for scientists and researchers to share papers, ask and answer questions, and find collaborators. According to a study by Nature and an article in Times Higher Education , it is the largest academic social network in terms of active users.

Curriculum Vitae for R J Robbins

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Curriculum Vitae for R J Robbins

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RJR Picks from Around the Web (updated 11 MAY 2018 )