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15 Sep 2019 at 01:45
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Bibliography on: Climate Change


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RJR: Recommended Bibliography 15 Sep 2019 at 01:45 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2019-09-14

Luqman M, Soytas U, Peng S, et al (2019)

Sharing the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation via Shapley value.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-06409-y [Epub ahead of print].

This paper examines the free rider problem that exists in the joint effort to mitigate climate change. There is a need to develop a model that is stable and that provides evidence of an objective burden sharing rule so that the environmental agreement is more acceptable. This study approaches this problem via a cooperative game at the global level to make International Environmental Agreements (IEA) more stable. For this purpose, we apply the Shapley value transfer mechanism and find that under the commitment scenario, some regions attain the maximum benefits by joining the coalition. Shapley value transfer improves the coalition size and increases the global benefits at a certain level of abatement under perfect cooperation. Imperfect cooperation leads to lower levels of global benefits. Our findings offer new implications on how to improve the international cooperation for climate change. Commitments by major regions could activate the IEA (e.g., Paris agreement) efficiently. For the maximum global response to climate change, the national governments must reformulate and implement policies to meet their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs). The results of this study also help the national governments to set their implementation priorities to implement the Paris Accord at global level.

RevDate: 2019-09-13

Yezli S, Khan A, A Bouchama (2019)

Summer Hajj pilgrimage in the era of global warming: a call for vigilance and better understanding of the risks.

Journal of travel medicine pii:5568291 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-09-13

Rivara FP, SD Fihn (2019)

Climate Change and Health: JAMA Network Open Call for Papers.

JAMA network open, 2(9):e1912502 pii:2749773.

RevDate: 2019-09-13

Hagedorn F, Gavazov K, JM Alexander (2019)

Above- and belowground linkages shape responses of mountain vegetation to climate change.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 365(6458):1119-1123.

Upward shifts of mountain vegetation lag behind rates of climate warming, partly related to interconnected changes belowground. Here, we unravel above- and belowground linkages by drawing insights from short-term experimental manipulations and elevation gradient studies. Soils will likely gain carbon in early successional ecosystems, while losing carbon as forest expands upward, and the slow, high-elevation soil development will constrain warming-induced vegetation shifts. Current approaches fail to predict the pace of these changes and how much they will be modified by interactions among plants and soil biota. Integrating mountain soils and their biota into monitoring programs, combined with innovative comparative and experimental approaches, will be crucial to overcome the paucity of belowground data and to better understand mountain ecosystem dynamics and their feedbacks to climate.

RevDate: 2019-09-12

Zhang Y, Wang Q, Wang Z, et al (2019)

Impact of human activities and climate change on the grassland dynamics under different regime policies in the Mongolian Plateau.

The Science of the total environment, 698:134304 pii:S0048-9697(19)34293-7 [Epub ahead of print].

To mitigate the grassland degradation in the Mongolian Plateau (MP), both China and Mongolia governments have carried out a series of new policies and ecological projects. However, the effect of such restoration measures on the productivity of grassland in the MP under different political systems remains unclear. Here we study the effects of land use and land cover change, human activities and climate change on the net primary productivity (NPP) of grassland in Mongolia (MG) and Inner Mongolia (IM) from 2001 to 2014. Results showed that the area of grassland increased in both MG and IM, accounted for 4.45 × 104 and 10.31 × 104 km2, respectively. The extended grassland contributed 4.34 × 108 Gg C (Gg = 109 g) to the total NPP, while the loss of grassland led to a decrease of 0.19 × 108 Gg C. The total NPP of grasslands in 2014 increased about 17.88% and 30.49% respectively in MG and IM since 2001. Specifically, IM exhibited a higher increase in land converted NPP than MG. The area of grassland restoration in IM and MG accounted for 90.21% and 81.45%, respectively, indicating that the grassland of the MP was restored. Although human activity was the dominant factor on grassland degradation, which was accounted for 9.79% and 18.55% in IM and MG, it has a positive effect on most of the grassland NPP in the MP. Overall, policy measures and ecological projects in IM brought a more positive effect compared with that in MG.

RevDate: 2019-09-12

Azadi Y, Yazdanpanah M, H Mahmoudi (2019)

Understanding smallholder farmers' adaptation behaviors through climate change beliefs, risk perception, trust, and psychological distance: Evidence from wheat growers in Iran.

Journal of environmental management, 250:109456 pii:S0301-4797(19)31174-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change (CC) poses severe threats to the agriculture sector in developing countries. ‏Increasing empirical evidence has confirmed that adaptation strategies to CC at the farm level can significantly reduce the negative impacts of CC and minimize vulnerability. Consequently, understanding adaptation to CC has become a major concern for farmers to facilitate adaptation actions and assist them in improving their adaptive capacity. In this context, this study investigated the most prominent psychological drivers of, and impediments to, adaptation responses. To this end, 350 farmers from Kermanshah district in western of Iran were selected as our sample through a multi-stage, stratified, random sampling method. Structural equation modeling found a complex relationship between overall CC belief, risk perception, psychological distance, trust and risk salience, and farmers' adaptation behaviors. Climate risk perception, trust, and psychological distance were much more effective in driving farmers' adaptation behaviors. The findings yield recommendations for public policy and risk communication that could encourage adaptation behaviors among Iranian farmers.

RevDate: 2019-09-12

Colombo SM, Rodgers TFM, Diamond ML, et al (2019)

Projected declines in global DHA availability for human consumption as a result of global warming.

Ambio pii:10.1007/s13280-019-01234-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) is an essential, omega-3, long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid that is a key component of cell membranes and plays a vital role in vertebrate brain function. The capacity to synthesize DHA is limited in mammals, despite its critical role in neurological development and health. For humans, DHA is most commonly obtained by eating fish. Global warming is predicted to reduce the de novo synthesis of DHA by algae, at the base of aquatic food chains, and which is expected to reduce DHA transferred to fish. We estimated the global quantity of DHA (total and per capita) currently available from commercial (wild caught and aquaculture) and recreational fisheries. The potential decrease in the amount of DHA available from fish for human consumption was modeled using the predicted effect of established global warming scenarios on algal DHA production and ensuing transfer to fish. We conclude that an increase in water temperature could result, depending on the climate scenario and location, in a ~ 10 to 58% loss of globally available DHA by 2100, potentially limiting the availability of this critical nutrient to humans. Inland waters show the greatest potential for climate-warming-induced decreases in DHA available for human consumption. The projected decrease in DHA availability as a result of global warming would disproportionately affect vulnerable populations (e.g., fetuses, infants), especially in inland Africa (due to low reported per capita DHA availability). We estimated, in the worst-case scenario, that DHA availability could decline to levels where 96% of the global population may not have access to sufficient DHA.

RevDate: 2019-09-11

Atsbha T, Belayneh Desta A, T Zewdu (2019)

Carbon sequestration potential of natural vegetation under grazing influence in Southern Tigray, Ethiopia: implication for climate change mitigation.

Heliyon, 5(8):e02329 pii:e02329.

The management influence on carbon sequestration potential of different land use types are least known at the national level. This research was conducted to assess the impact of area exclusion on carbon sequestration potential in the two land use systems: protected natural vegetation (PNV) and communal grazing land (CGL). Data of vegetation, litter, and soils were collected using systematic sampling methods, laying 19 transects and 62 quadrats each with 20 m × 20 m for trees, 5 m × 5 m sub-quadrats for shrubs, and 1 m × 1m sub-quadrats for herbs/grasses, litter biomass, and soil sample. Aboveground biomass carbon (AGC), belowground biomass carbon (BGC), soil organic carbon (SOC), and total carbon stock (TC) were estimated using allometric equations. The mean difference level of carbon stocks (P < 0.05) of the two land use systems was tested through unequal variance t-test using R-software. The mean above ground and below ground carbon stock of PNV, 21.05 ton/ha, 10.39 ton/ha, was higher than CGL, 15.31 ton/ha, 7.65 ton/ha, respectively. The average values of SOC was 16.60 ton/ha from PNV and 13.76 ton/ha from CGL. The mean value of SOC was higher at the PNV than CGL and significantly different (P < 0.05). The total carbon stock estimate of PNV and CGL were 50.74 ton/ha and 37.11 ton/ha, respectively, which is significantly different (P < 0.05). We concluded that, establishment of PNV as the best practice of restoration programs through exclusion of livestock from free grazing and human interference provides cost effective mechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity conservation, livelihood support, and climate change mitigation.

RevDate: 2019-09-10

Li J, Fan G, Y He (2019)

Predicting the current and future distribution of three Coptis herbs in China under climate change conditions, using the MaxEnt model and chemical analysis.

The Science of the total environment, 698:134141 pii:S0048-9697(19)34118-X [Epub ahead of print].

The rhizomes of Coptis chinensis Franch., Coptis deltoidea C. Y. Cheng et Hsiao and Coptis teeta Wall, are sources of renowned traditional Chinese medicines. Recently, human activities and climate change has caused degeneration of the natural habitats of these pharmacological plants. Analyzing the impact of climate change on the possible distribution of Coptis herbs is essential for their future conservation and domestication. The purpose of this study was to predict the potential distribution of these valuable plants and identify the potential effects of climate change on three Coptis species, using of species distribution modeling (SDM). In this study, we first predict the distribution size variations of the three plant species, under present and future conditions. Secondly, we carried out field sampling of these three species and analyzed the chemical composition by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Results show that the predicted distributions of all three Coptis herbs were not limit to the reported regions, but also cover other potential areas. Among the environmental variables, annual precipitation range (Bio2) induced the largest impact on SDMs for C. chinensis (72.2%) and C. deltoidea (37.9%), while C. teeta was more significantly affected by isothermally (Bio3, 39.2%). When comparing the possible future distribution to the present distribution of these species, a decreasing tendency was observed in the highly suitable areas of C. chinensis and the generally suitable areas of C. teeta, indicating that the environmental changes would affect the distribution of these two species. In addition, the average alkaloid content was found to be the highest in highly suitable areas, while it was decreased in moderately and generally suitable areas, indicating that alkaloid content may be related to environmental factors. In summary, these findings improve our understanding of the ecological impact of climate on the distribution of three Coptis species.

RevDate: 2019-09-10

Magkos F, Tetens I, Bügel SG, et al (2019)

A Perspective on the Transition to Plant-Based Diets: a Diet Change May Attenuate Climate Change, but Can It Also Attenuate Obesity and Chronic Disease Risk?.

Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.) pii:5559530 [Epub ahead of print].

Current dietary guidelines advocate more plant-based, sustainable diets on the basis of scientific evidence about diet-health relations but also to address environmental concerns. Here, we critically review the effects of plant-based diets on the prevalence of obesity and other health outcomes. Plant-based diets per se have limited efficacy for the prevention and treatment of obesity, but most have beneficial effects in terms of chronic disease risk. However, with the considerable possibilities of translating plant-based diets into various types of dietary patterns, our analysis suggests that potential adverse health effects should also be considered in relation to vulnerable groups of the population. A transition to more plant-based diets may exert beneficial effects on the environment, but is unlikely to affect obesity, and may also have adverse health effects if this change is made without careful consideration of the nutritional needs of the individual relative to the adequacy of the dietary intake.

RevDate: 2019-09-10

Cazelles K, Bartley T, Guzzo MM, et al (2019)

Homogenization of freshwater lakes: recent compositional shifts in fish communities are explained by gamefish movement and not climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Globally, lake fish communities are being subjected to a range of scale-dependent anthropogenic pressures, from climate change to eutrophication, and from over-exploitation to species introductions. As a consequence, the composition of these communities is being reshuffled, in most cases leading to a surge in taxonomic similarity at the regional scale termed homogenization. The drivers of homogenization remain unclear, which may be a reflection of interactions between various environmental changes. In this study, we investigate two potential drivers of the recent changes in the composition of freshwater fish communities: recreational fishing and climate change. Our results, derived from 524 lakes of Ontario, Canada sampled in two periods (1965-1982 and 2008-2012), demonstrate that the main contributors to homogenization are the dispersal of gamefish species, most of which are large predators. Alternative explanations relating to lake habitat (e.g., area, phosphorus) or variations in climate have limited explanatory power. Our analysis suggests that human-assisted migration is the primary driver of the observed compositional shifts, homogenizing freshwater fish community among Ontario lakes and generating food webs dominated by gamefish species.

RevDate: 2019-09-10

Saupe EE, Myers CE, Townsend Peterson A, et al (2019)

Spatio-temporal climate change contributes to latitudinal diversity gradients.

Nature ecology & evolution pii:10.1038/s41559-019-0962-7 [Epub ahead of print].

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), where the number of species increases from the poles to the Equator, ranks among the broadest and most notable biodiversity patterns on Earth. The pattern of species-rich tropics relative to species-poor temperate areas has been recognized for well over a century, but the generative mechanisms are still debated vigorously. We use simulations to test whether spatio-temporal climatic changes could generate large-scale patterns of biodiversity as a function of only three biological processes-speciation, extinction and dispersal-omitting adaptive niche evolution, diversity-dependence and coexistence limits. In our simulations, speciation resulted from range disjunctions, whereas extinction occurred when no suitable sites were accessible to species. Simulations generated clear LDGs that closely match empirical LDGs for three major vertebrate groups. Higher tropical diversity primarily resulted from higher low-latitude speciation, driven by spatio-temporal variation in precipitation rather than in temperature. This suggests that spatio-temporal changes in low-latitude precipitation prompted geographical range disjunctions over Earth's history, leading to high rates of allopatric speciation that contributed to LDGs. Overall, we show that major global biodiversity patterns can derive from interactions of species' niches (fixed a priori in our simulations) with dynamic climate across complex, existing landscapes, without invoking biotic interactions or niche-related adaptations.

RevDate: 2019-09-10

Riddell EA, Roback EY, Wells CE, et al (2019)

Thermal cues drive plasticity of desiccation resistance in montane salamanders with implications for climate change.

Nature communications, 10(1):4091 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-11990-4.

Organisms rely upon external cues to avoid detrimental conditions during environmental change. Rapid water loss, or desiccation, is a universal threat for terrestrial plants and animals, especially under climate change, but the cues that facilitate plastic responses to avoid desiccation are unclear. We integrate acclimation experiments with gene expression analyses to identify the cues that regulate resistance to water loss at the physiological and regulatory level in a montane salamander (Plethodon metcalfi). Here we show that temperature is an important cue for developing a desiccation-resistant phenotype and might act as a reliable cue for organisms across the globe. Gene expression analyses consistently identify regulation of stem cell differentiation and embryonic development of vasculature. The temperature-sensitive blood vessel development suggests that salamanders regulate water loss through the regression and regeneration of capillary beds in the skin, indicating that tissue regeneration may be used for physiological purposes beyond replacing lost limbs.

RevDate: 2019-09-09

Ciceu A, Popa I, Leca S, et al (2019)

Climate change effects on tree growth from Romanian forest monitoring Level II plots.

The Science of the total environment, 698:134129 pii:S0048-9697(19)34106-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Forest health status is negatively influenced by climate change, air pollution and other disturbances. Extreme droughts reduce stand productivity, increase vulnerability to pests, and can even provoke mortality. Growth dynamics at tree and forest stand levels are considered the main indicators of stability and productivity in forest ecosystem structures. The main climate drivers for tree growth were identified using basal area increment (BAI) as a synthetic indicator. BAI chronologies were obtained from increment cores for 1960-2012 period. Six species were analysed in an attempt to identify their growth limiting factors. For the most important oak species in Romania, resilience components were computed in order to analyse their response to drought events. Moreover, growth dynamics were analysed for two species in mixed and monoculture forests. The results suggest that - in comparison to Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica, the sensitivity of Quercus spp. is much higher (0.3-0.47). Oakspecies situated in the most drought-affected areas are sensitive to rainfall values from the previous autumn, current spring, and early summer, with April monthly values having the most significant effect on BAI increment (r = 0.47*) The most sensitive species to drought is Q. cerris and Q. frainetto. Their BAI reduction during drought is >50% compared with the BAI values before the drought period. The recovery capacity of tree growth following drought events is lower for Q. robur and Q. petraea and higher for Q. cerris and Q. frainetto. The mixed forest stands have not showed a constant higher resistance to drought.

RevDate: 2019-09-09

Pearson D, Ebisu K, Wu X, et al (2019)

A Review of Coccidioidomycosis in California: Exploring the Intersection of Land-use, Population Movement, and Climate Change.

Epidemiologic reviews pii:5564380 [Epub ahead of print].

California has seen a surge in coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever), a disease spread by the Coccidioides Immitis fungus found in soil throughout the state, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. In this paper, we reviewed epidemiologic studies examining outbreak and sporadic cases of coccidioidomycosis and considered their possible relationship to environmental conditions, particularly the state's growing aridity, drought and wildfire conditions. Most of the studies we reviewed pertained to cases occupationally-acquired in construction, military, archeological and correctional institutional settings where workers faced exposure to dust in Coccidioides Immitis-endemic areas. A few reviewed outbreaks in the general population related to dust exposure from natural disasters, including an earthquake-associated landslide and a dust storm that carried particles long distances from endemic areas. Although many of California's coccidioidomycosis outbreaks have been occupationally-related, changing demographics and new, immunologically-naive populations in dry, endemic areas could expose the general population to Coccidioides Immitis spores. Given the high rate of infection among largely healthy workers, the general population, comprised of some elderly and immunocompromised individuals, could face additional risk. With climate-related events like drought and wildfires also increasing in endemic areas, future research is needed to address the possible associations between these phenomena and coccidioidomycosis outbreaks.

RevDate: 2019-09-08

Kwak SS (2019)

Biotechnology of the sweetpotato: ensuring global food and nutrition security in the face of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-09-07

Tudoran GM, M Zotta (2019)

Adapting the planning and management of Norway spruce forests in mountain areas of Romania to environmental conditions including climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 698:133761 pii:S0048-9697(19)33702-7 [Epub ahead of print].

In Romania, natural Norway spruce forests are spread across upper mountain slopes (1300-1800 m). They perform multiple functions, being especially recognised for their economic value. However, where planted forests extend beyond the spruce's naturally occurring areas, they are frequently exposed to deleterious environmental factors. In Romania, forest planning is based on typological studies that were carried out between 1950 and 1970, and the regulations are applied in a somewhat flexible manner. In the context of the potential threats from climate change that could amplify induced destabilising phenomena, the risks to which these forests are becoming exposed can only be mediated through flexible management and the permanent adaptation of forest planning. For this reason, the purpose of this study was to develop a strategy for adapting forest management plan guidelines, with a view to improving ecosystem stability. A Norway spruce forest was chosen from the south-eastern Carpathians, which is included in the Natura 2000 Fagaras Mountains site. The models on which we based our current stand compositions resulted from long-term monitoring and analysis of species and stand structures. Stand structure - and forest structure, in general - is key to the continuous existence of stand functions and ecosystem services. Through design decisions, we promote biodiversity and the natural, better adapted, regeneration of local provenances. We highlight the rationale behind forest management planning and its regulations, with respect to the sustainable management of Norway spruce forests, which are vulnerable to potential changes in their structure as a result of climate change. Based on our findings, we propose the adaptation of measures used in forest management planning for Norway spruce forests to include protective functions that can be applied to all man-made Norway spruce forests introduced in former beech forest regions, and mixed coniferous/beech forests, that are vulnerable to changing environmental factors.

RevDate: 2019-09-07

Jeihouni E, Mohammadi M, Eslamian S, et al (2019)

Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater level through hybrid soft-computing methods: a case study-Shabestar Plain, Iran.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 191(10):620 pii:10.1007/s10661-019-7784-6.

Groundwater aquifers have always been confronted with significant challenges around the world such as climate change, over-extraction, pollution by wastewaters, and saltwater intrusion in coastal areas. Prediction of groundwater level under the effects of climate change is more important in water resource management. This study has therefore been evaluated the effects of two climate parameters (i.e., precipitation and temperature) in groundwater level for the Shabestar Plain, Iran. For this end, four models from General Circulation Models (GCM) were then used to evaluate future climate change scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathway (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). In the next phase, to reduce the spatial complexity of observation wells, clustering analysis was used. In case of groundwater level modeling, time series in the base period, Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous inputs (NARX) were also used. To improve the prediction accuracy, time series preprocessing made by wavelet-based de-noising approach was used. Analysis of the results illustrates an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation for study region in the future period times. The results also reveal that hybrid techniques of the wavelet-NARX give best results in comparison with the other models. A simulation result illustrates that the groundwater level declines in RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, which gives average levels of 0.61, 0.81, and 1.53 m, respectively, for the future period years (i.e., 2020-2024). These results would lead to continuous groundwater depletion. These findings emphasize the necessity of the importance of extraction policies in water resource management.

RevDate: 2019-09-07

Sultan B, Defrance D, T Iizumi (2019)

Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models.

Scientific reports, 9(1):12834 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-49167-0.

Achieving food security goals in West Africa will depend on the capacity of the agricultural sector to feed the rapidly growing population and to moderate the adverse impacts of climate change. Indeed, a number of studies anticipate a reduction of the crop yield of the main staple food crops in the region in the coming decades due to global warming. Here, we found that crop production might have already been affected by climate change, with significant yield losses estimated in the historical past. We used a large ensemble of historical climate simulations derived from an atmospheric general circulation model and two process-based crop models, SARRA-H and CYGMA, to evaluate the effects of historical climate change on crop production in West Africa. We generated two ensembles of 100 historical simulations of yields of sorghum and millet corresponding to two climate conditions for each crop model. One ensemble is based on a realistic simulation of the actual climate, while the other is based on a climate simulation that does not account for human influences on climate systems (that is, the non-warming counterfactual climate condition). We found that the last simulated decade, 2000-2009, is approximately 1 °C warmer in West Africa in the ensemble accounting for human influences on climate, with more frequent heat and rainfall extremes. These altered climate conditions have led to regional average yield reductions of 10-20% for millet and 5-15% for sorghum in the two crop models. We found that the average annual production losses across West Africa in 2000-2009 associated with historical climate change, relative to a non-warming counterfactual condition (that is, pre-industrial climate), accounted for 2.33-4.02 billion USD for millet and 0.73-2.17 billion USD for sorghum. The estimates of production losses presented here can be a basis for the loss and damage associated with climate change to date and useful in estimating the costs of the adaptation of crop production systems in the region.

RevDate: 2019-09-06

Kirk MA, Galatowitsch ML, SA Wissinger (2019)

Seasonal differences in climate change explain a lack of multi-decadal shifts in population characteristics of a pond breeding salamander.

PloS one, 14(9):e0222097 pii:PONE-D-19-12710.

There is considerable variation among studies that evaluate how amphibian populations respond to global climate change. We used 23 years of annual survey data to test whether changes in climate have caused predictable shifts in the phenology and population characteristics of adult spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) during spring breeding migrations. Although we observed year-to-year correlation between seasonal climate variables and salamander population characteristics, there have not been long-term, directional shifts in phenological or population characteristics. Warm winters consistently resulted in early migration dates, but across the 23-year study, there was no overall shift towards warmer winters and thus no advanced migration timing. Warm summers and low variability in summer temperatures were correlated with large salamander body sizes, yet an overall shift towards increasing body sizes was not observed despite rising summer temperatures during the study. This was likely due to the absence of long-term changes of within-year variation in summer temperatures, which was a stronger determinant of body size than summer temperature alone. Climate-induced shifts in population characteristics were thus not observed for this species as long-term changes in important seasonal climate variables were not observed during the 23-years of the study. Different amphibian populations will likely be more resilient to climate change impacts than others, and the probability of amphibians exhibiting long-term population changes will depend on how seasonal climate change interacts with a species' life history, phenology, and geographic location. Linking a wide range of seasonal climatic conditions to species or population characteristics should thus improve our ability for explaining idiosyncratic responses of species to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-09-06

Iacobucci G (2019)

NHS to step up efforts to tackle "health emergency" of climate change.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 366:l5458.

RevDate: 2019-09-06

Fox M, Zuidema C, Bauman B, et al (2019)

Integrating Public Health into Climate Change Policy and Planning: State of Practice Update.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(18): pii:ijerph16183232.

Policy action in the coming decade will be crucial to achieving globally agreed upon goals to decarbonize the economy and build resilience to a warmer, more extreme climate. Public health has an essential role in climate planning and action: "Co-benefits" to health help underpin greenhouse gas reduction strategies, while safeguarding health-particularly of the most vulnerable-is a frontline local adaptation goal. Using the structure of the core functions and essential services (CFES), we reviewed the literature documenting the evolution of public health's role in climate change action since the 2009 launch of the US CDC Climate and Health Program. We found that the public health response to climate change has been promising in the area of assessment (monitoring climate hazards, diagnosing health status, assessing vulnerability); mixed in the area of policy development (mobilizing partnerships, mitigation and adaptation activities); and relatively weak in assurance (communication, workforce development and evaluation). We suggest that the CFES model remains important, but is not aligned with three concepts-governance, implementation and adjustment-that have taken on increasing importance. Adding these concepts to the model can help ensure that public health fulfills its potential as a proactive partner fully integrated into climate policy planning and action in the coming decade.

RevDate: 2019-09-04

Dannenberg AL, Rogerson B, L Rudolph (2019)

Optimizing the health benefits of climate change policies using health impact assessment.

Journal of public health policy pii:10.1057/s41271-019-00189-y [Epub ahead of print].

Health impact assessment (HIA) is a tool that can be used to examine the potential health impacts of proposed climate change policies and offer recommendations to promote health and mitigate adverse health consequences of such policies. We used an HIA database, a literature search, and expert consultation to identify 12 HIAs of the proposed climate change policies from six states in the U.S. These policies included cap-and-trade legislation, heat-wave and sea-level-rise mitigation and adaptation, transportation policy impacts of climate change, carbon-reduction strategy scenarios, soil- and water-conservation strategies, urban forest canopy for climate adaptation, overheating buildings, and regional transportation plan and sustainable communities strategies. In four descriptive summaries, we found that HIAs foster stakeholder engagement and provide useful health-promoting recommendations. HIAs can facilitate cross-sector collaboration, help optimize the health co-benefits of climate change policies, and raise awareness among decision makers of health impacts of those proposed policies.

RevDate: 2019-09-04

Wan X, Jiang G, Yan C, et al (2019)

Historical records reveal the distinctive associations of human disturbance and extreme climate change with local extinction of mammals.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1818019116 [Epub ahead of print].

Accelerated anthropogenic impacts and climatic changes are widely considered to be responsible for unprecedented species extinction. However, determining their effects on extinction is challenging owing to the lack of long-term data with high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, using historical occurrence records of 11 medium- to large-sized mammal species or groups of species in China from 905 BC to AD 2006, we quantified the distinctive associations of anthropogenic stressors (represented by cropland coverage and human population density) and climatic stressors (represented by air temperature) with the local extinction of these mammals. We found that both intensified human disturbances and extreme climate change were associated with the increased local extinction of the study mammals. In the cold phase (the premodern period of China), climate cooling was positively associated with increased local extinction, while in the warm phase (the modern period) global warming was associated with increased local extinction. Interactive effects between human disturbance and temperature change with the local extinction of elephants, rhinos, pandas, and water deer were found. Large-sized mammals, such as elephants, rhinos, and pandas, showed earlier and larger population declines than small-sized ones. The local extinction sensitivities of these mammals to the human population density and standardized temperature were estimated during 1700 to 2000. The quantitative evidence for anthropogenic and climatic associations with mammalian extinction provided insights into the driving processes of species extinction, which has important implications for biodiversity conservation under accelerating global changes.

RevDate: 2019-09-04

Vogel L (2019)

Canada's doctors tackle financial stressors, climate change at annual meeting.

CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne, 191(35):E973-E974.

RevDate: 2019-09-04

Parry L, Radel C, Adamo SB, et al (2019)

The (in)visible health risks of climate change.

Social science & medicine (1982) pii:S0277-9536(19)30442-3 [Epub ahead of print].

This paper scrutinizes the assertion that knowledge gaps concerning health risks from climate change are unjust, and must be addressed, because they hinder evidence-led interventions to protect vulnerable populations. First, we construct a taxonomy of six inter-related forms of invisibility (social marginalization, forced invisibility by migrants, spatial marginalization, neglected diseases, mental health, uneven climatic monitoring and forecasting) which underlie systematic biases in current understanding of these risks in Latin America, and advocate an approach to climate-health research that draws on intersectionality theory to address these inter-relations. We propose that these invisibilities should be understood as outcomes of structural imbalances in power and resources rather than as haphazard blindspots in scientific and state knowledge. Our thesis, drawing on theories of governmentality, is that context-dependent tensions condition whether or not benefits of making vulnerable populations legible to the state outweigh costs. To be seen is to be politically counted and eligible for rights, yet evidence demonstrates the perils of visibility to disempowered people. For example, flood-relief efforts in remote Amazonia expose marginalized urban river-dwellers to the traumatic prospect of forced relocation and social and economic upheaval. Finally, drawing on research on citizenship in post-colonial settings, we conceptualize climate change as an 'open moment' of political rupture, and propose strategies of social accountability, empowerment and trans-disciplinary research which encourage the marginalized to reach out for greater power. These achievements could reduce drawbacks of state legibility and facilitate socially-just governmental action on climate change adaptation that promotes health for all.

RevDate: 2019-09-04

You M, Y Ju (2019)

Comparing Outrage Effect on the Risk Perception of Climate Change versus Fine Dust.

Health communication [Epub ahead of print].

Public evaluation of risk is influenced by the emotive response to perceived risk characteristics, namely outrage factors. We evaluated which outrage factors contribute to the public perception of two different environmental risks, climate change and fine dust. In particular, the outrage factors of controllability, familiarity, and delayed effect were assessed to determine if they are more salient and influential for climate change than fine dust. A nationwide online survey (N = 1,000) was conducted to measure nine outrage factors and risk perception for both risks in a South Korean population. Although both environmental risks were associated with a similar level of risk perception, catastrophic potential and personal stake were the highest scoring outrage factors for climate change and fine dust, respectively, and were also the strongest influence for the level of each risk perception. Familiarity was more salient for climate change than fine dust, and was influential only for climate change. Delayed effect was more salient for climate change, but was not influential for the perception of both risks. Controllability was more salient for fine dust but had no significant influence on both risk perceptions. Catastrophic potential, dread, personal stake, and trust were common influential outrage factors for both risks. We discuss the significance of an individualistic approach to evaluating outrage effects. In addition, the practical implications of comparing salient and influential outrage factors for both risks were addressed in terms of risk communication.

RevDate: 2019-09-04

Zhang L, Jing Z, Li Z, et al (2019)

Predictive Modeling of Suitable Habitats for Cinnamomum Camphora (L.) Presl Using Maxent Model under Climate Change in China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(17): pii:ijerph16173185.

Rapid changes in global climate exert tremendous pressure on forest ecosystems. Cinnamomum camphora (L.) Presl is a multi-functional tree species, and its distribution and growth are also affected by climate warming. In order to realize its economic value and ecological function, it is necessary to explore the impact of climate change on its suitable habitats under different scenarios. In this experiment, 181 geographical distribution data were collected, and the MaxEnt algorithm was used to predict the distribution of suitable habitats. To complete the simulation, we selected two greenhouse gas release scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and also three future time periods, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s. The importance of environmental variables for modeling was evaluated by jackknife test. Our study found that accumulated temperature played a key role in the distribution of camphor trees. With the change of climate, the area of suitable range will increase and continue to move to the northwest of China. These findings could provide guidance for the plantation establishment and resource protection of camphor in China.

RevDate: 2019-09-05

Wang D, Cui B, Duan S, et al (2019)

Moving north in China: The habitat of Pedicularis kansuensis in the context of climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 697:133979 pii:S0048-9697(19)33949-X [Epub ahead of print].

Pedicularis kansuensis is a poisonous grass and a semi-parasitic plant that has spread rapidly in alpine grasslands in recent years and caused great harm to animal husbandry and the ecological environment. However, little is known about the habitat of P. kansuensis and the key environmental factors that influence its expansion. We assessed the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of P. kansuensis in China under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and MigClim for the years 2050 and 2070 and examined key environmental factors affecting P. kansuensis distribution. In total, 118 occurrence points and fourteen selected variables were used for the modeling. The models developed for P. kansuensis showed excellent performance (AUC > 0.9 and TSS > 0.90). The results were as follows. 1) The occupied habitats for P. kansuensis in the four climate scenarios were generally offset in the northward direction. 2) The most important environmental variables influencing the spread of P. kansuensis were altitude, annual precipitation, annual temperature range, precipitation in the warmest quarter and ultraviolet-B radiation seasonality (UVB-2). 3) Under RCP 2.6, the occupied habitat would be increased 0.04% by 2050 and would be increased to 0.51% by 2070. Under RCP 8.5, the average occupied habitat was predicted to increase 0.07% by 2050 and increase to 0.53% by 2070. The increase was relatively higher in the occupied habitats located in the southwestern regions (Sichuan, Xizang and Yunnan) than those in the northwestern regions (Gansu and Xinjiang).

RevDate: 2019-09-05

Zhang C, Huang Y, Javed A, et al (2019)

An ensemble modeling framework to study the effects of climate change on the trophic state of shallow reservoirs.

The Science of the total environment, 697:134078 pii:S0048-9697(19)34055-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Our understanding of the potential impact of climatic change on catchment hydrology and aquatic system dynamics has been advanced over the past decade, but there are still considerable knowledge gaps with respect to its effects on water quality vis-à-vis the increasing demands for drinking water. In this study, we developed an integrated hydrological-water quality (SWAT-YRWQM) model to elucidate the effects of a changing climate on the trophic state of the shallow Yuqiao Reservoir. Using a two-step downscaling process, we reproduced the prevailing meteorological conditions, as well as the streamflows in three major tributaries of the study area. A sensitivity analysis exercise showed that the nature of the calibration dataset used, namely the range of flows (i.e., dry versus wet years) included, can profoundly influence the predictive power of our modeling framework. Our climatic scenarios projected a minor change of the streamflow rates, but a variant degree of increase of the riverine total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and associated loading rates into the reservoir. Consequently, a significant rise of in-lake TP concentrations is projected for the near (2016-2030) and distant (2031-2050) future compared to the reference (2006-2015) conditions. Interestingly, the ambient TP levels appear to be lower in the distant relative to the near future, owing to changes in the magnitude and relative contribution of both external and internal nutrient loading sources. Our analysis also highlights the importance of reservoir operation practices to regulate water levels as a means for mitigating the climate change impact on the trophic status of the Yuqiao Reservoir, given that the diversion of low-nutrient water from the upstream basin can significantly reduce (30-40%) the TP concentrations. Our findings are highly relevant to the on-going debate about the potential implications of climate change for water availability, highlighting the importance of adaptation strategies to optimize the water resources management.

RevDate: 2019-09-03

Hussain M, Butt AR, Uzma F, et al (2019)

Divisional disparities on climate change adaptation and mitigation in Punjab, Pakistan: local perceptions, vulnerabilities, and policy implications.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-06262-z [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is a global challenge faced by everyone, but the developing countries are highly vulnerable to variations in the environment. This research focuses on the Punjab province of Pakistan and evaluates the impacts and consequences of climate change on general public at local and divisional level. In order to cope with the impacts of climatic changes at all levels, especially divisional level, raising reliable awareness and dispersing actionable knowledge regarding mitigating and adapting measures is significantly important. Therefore, recognition of information gaps, improvements in the level of alertness, and development of preventive measures in each sector is imperative. The impacts of climate change are observed across the country through gradual increase in temperature, human health issues, pest diseases, droughts, floods, and irregular weather patterns leading to changes in lifestyles, and these issues are likely to continue in the future. The main cause of climate change in Punjab, Pakistan, can be attributed to excessive release of greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere due to human activities involving inefficient energy usage, rapid urban expansion, improper waste management, industrial development, increasing transportation, agricultural activities, and livestock mismanagement. The findings of this study revealed that transportation sector is the major source of GHG emissions in the country, followed by industrialization and waste, at national, as well as divisional, level. The extent of impacts of climate change at divisional level is distinguishable and displayed a direct relationship with climate, geography, variation of effects, and modes of production in various regions of Punjab. The study strategically investigated all nine divisions of the province for comprehensive understanding of climate change phenomenon, and the results indicated that nearly three-fourths of the respondents have never indulged in taking steps towards climate change mitigation and adaptation. The study adopted a mixed (qualitative and quantitative) approach where the findings can act as set of guidelines for governmental authorities in formulating, assisting in preparation, instructing, and guiding policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation at national, local, and divisional levels. Graphical abstract.

RevDate: 2019-09-04

Troia MJ, Kaz AL, Niemeyer JC, et al (2019)

Species traits and reduced habitat suitability limit efficacy of climate change refugia in streams.

Nature ecology & evolution, 3(9):1321-1330.

Climate change vulnerability depends on whether organisms can disperse rapidly enough to keep pace with shifting temperatures and find suitable habitat along the way. Here, we develop a method to examine where and for which species shifting isotherms will outpace species dispersal using stream networks of the southern Appalachian Mountains (United States) and their highly speciose and endemic fish fauna as a model system. By exploring alternative tributary and mainstem dispersal pathways, we identify tributaries as slow-climate-velocity pathways along which some fish can successfully disperse and thus keep pace with climate change. Despite accessibility and thermal suitability, non-temperature habitat conditions in tributaries are unsuitable for some dispersing species, thus probably precluding establishment of persistent populations. Our findings demonstrate a trade-off shaping the efficacy of thermal refugia that depends on species-specific habitat associations and reveal individual-level dispersal behaviour, body size and stream network geometry as general correlates of climate change vulnerability.

RevDate: 2019-09-02

Tombre IM, Oudman T, Shimmings P, et al (2019)

Northward range expansion in spring-staging barnacle geese is a response to climate change and population growth, mediated by individual experience.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

All long-distance migrants must cope with changing environments, but species differ greatly in how they do so. In some species, individuals might be able to adjust by learning from individual experiences and by copying others. This could greatly speed up the process of adjustment, but evidence from the wild is scarce. Here, we investigated the processes by which a rapidly growing population of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) responded to strong environmental changes on spring-staging areas in Norway. One area, Helgeland, has been the traditional site. Since the mid-1990s, an increasing number of geese stage in another area 250 km further north, Vesterålen. We collected data on goose numbers and weather conditions from 1975 to 2017 to explore the extent to which the increase in population size and a warmer climate contributed to this change in staging area use. During the study period, the estimated onset of grass growth advanced on average by 0.54 days/year in each of the two areas. The total production of digestible biomass for barnacle geese during the staging period increased in Vesterålen but remained stable in Helgeland. The goose population has doubled in size during the past 25 years, with most of the growth being accommodated in Vesterålen. The observations suggest that this dramatic increase would not have happened without higher temperatures in Vesterålen. Records of individually marked geese indicate that from the initial years of colonization onwards, especially young geese tended to switch to Vesterålen, thereby predominating in the flocks at Vesterålen. Older birds had a lower probability of switching to Vesterålen, but over the years, the probability increased for all ages. Our findings suggest that barnacle geese integrate socially learned behaviour with adjustments to individual experiences, allowing the population to respond rapidly and accurately to global change.

RevDate: 2019-09-05

Ahmed S, Griffin TS, Kraner D, et al (2019)

Environmental Factors Variably Impact Tea Secondary Metabolites in the Context of Climate Change.

Frontiers in plant science, 10:939.

Climate change is impacting food and beverage crops around the world with implications for environmental and human well-being. While numerous studies have examined climate change effects on crop yields, relatively few studies have examined effects on crop quality (concentrations of nutrients, minerals, and secondary metabolites). This review article employs a culturally relevant beverage crop, tea (Camelia sinensis), as a lens to examine environmental effects linked to climate change on the directionality of crop quality. Our systematic review identified 86 articles as relevant to the review question. Findings provide evidence that shifts in seasonality, water stress, geography, light factors, altitude, herbivory and microbes, temperature, and soil factors that are linked to climate change can result in both increases and decreases up to 50% in secondary metabolites. A gap was found regarding evidence on the direct effects of carbon dioxide on tea quality, highlighting a critical research area for future study. While this systematic review provides evidence that multiple environmental parameters are impacting tea quality, the directionality and magnitude of these impacts is not clear with contradictory evidence between studies likely due to confounding factors including variation in tea variety, cultivar, specific environmental and agricultural management conditions, and differences in research methods. The environmental factors with the most consistent evidence in this systematic review were seasonality and water stress with 14 out of 18 studies (78%) demonstrating a decrease in concentrations of phenolic compounds or their bioactivity with a seasonal shift from the spring and /or first tea harvest to other seasons and seven out of 10 studies (70%) showing an increase in levels of phenolic compounds or their bioactivity with drought stress. Herbivory and soil fertility were two of the variables that showed the greatest contradictory evidence on tea quality. Both herbivory and soil fertility are variables which farmers have the greatest control over, pointing to the importance of agricultural management for climate mitigation and adaptation. The development of evidence-based management strategies and crop breeding programs for resilient cultivars are called for to mitigate climate impacts on crop quality and overall risk in agricultural and food systems.

RevDate: 2019-09-02

Froehlich HE, Afflerbach JC, Frazier M, et al (2019)

Blue Growth Potential to Mitigate Climate Change through Seaweed Offsetting.

Current biology : CB pii:S0960-9822(19)30886-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Carbon offsetting-receiving credit for reducing, avoiding, or sequestering carbon-has become part of the portfolio of solutions to mitigate carbon emissions, and thus climate change, through policy and voluntary markets, primarily by land-based re- or afforestation and preservation [1, 2]. However, land is limiting, creating interest in a rapidly growing aquatic farming sector of seaweed aquaculture [3-5]. Synthesizing data from scientific literature, we assess the extent and cost of scaling seaweed aquaculture to provide sufficient CO2eq sequestration for several climate change mitigation scenarios, with a focus on the food sector-a major source of greenhouse gases [6]. Given known ecological constraints (nutrients and temperature), we found a substantial suitable area (ca. 48 million km2) for seaweed farming, which is largely unfarmed. Within its own industry, seaweed could create a carbon-neutral aquaculture sector with just 14% (mean = 25%) of current seaweed production (0.001% of suitable area). At a much larger scale, we find seaweed culturing extremely unlikely to offset global agriculture, in part due to production growth and cost constraints. Yet offsetting agriculture appears more feasible at a regional level, especially areas with strong climate policy, such as California (0.065% of suitable area). Importantly, seaweed farming can provide other benefits to coastlines affected by eutrophic, hypoxic, and/or acidic conditions [7, 8], creating opportunities for seaweed farming to act as "charismatic carbon" that serves multiple purposes. Seaweed offsetting is not the sole solution to climate change, but it provides an invaluable new tool for a more sustainable future.

RevDate: 2019-08-30

Loughlin KR (2019)

Global warming: the implications for urologic disease.

The Canadian journal of urology, 26(4):9806-9808.

Global warming is receiving more attention in both the lay and scientific press. However, many individuals still view global warming as an abstract, distant concern that has little, if any, impact on their daily lives. As urologists, it is important to realize that global warming may influence some of the diseases that we treat. Much of the scientific basis for the link between climate and urologic disease is still in its nascent stages. However, a review of the emerging literature suggests that climatic changes may well alter the frequency of some urologic conditions.

RevDate: 2019-09-04

Petersen AM, Vincent EM, AL Westerling (2019)

Author Correction: Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians.

Nature communications, 10(1):3966 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-12061-4.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

RevDate: 2019-09-02
CmpDate: 2019-09-02

Danczak A (2019)

Climate change emergency.

The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners, 69(686):430 pii:69/686/430.

RevDate: 2019-08-29

Trugman AT, Anderegg LDL, Sperry JS, et al (2019)

Leveraging plant hydraulics to yield predictive and dynamic plant leaf allocation in vegetation models with climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Plant functional traits provide a link in process-based vegetation models between plant-level physiology and ecosystem-level responses. Recent advances in physiological understanding and computational efficiency have allowed for the incorporation of plant hydraulic processes in large-scale vegetation models. However, a more mechanistic representation of water limitation that determines ecosystem responses to plant water stress necessitates a re-evaluation of trait-based constraints for plant carbon allocation, particularly allocation to leaf area. In this review, we examine model representations of plant allocation to leaves, which is often empirically set by plant functional type-specific allometric relationships. We analyze the evolution of the representation of leaf allocation in models of different scales and complexities. We show the impacts of leaf allocation strategy on plant carbon uptake in the context of recent advancements in modeling hydraulic processes. Finally, we posit that deriving allometry from first principles using mechanistic hydraulic processes is possible and should become standard practice, rather than using prescribed allometries. The representation of allocation as an emergent property of scarce resource constraints is likely to be critical to representing how global change processes impact future ecosystem dynamics and carbon fluxes and may reduce the number of poorly constrained parameters in vegetation models.

RevDate: 2019-08-28

Michelot A (2019)

[Chapter 1. Climate justice: addressing the responsibility for climate change.].

Journal international de bioethique et d'ethique des sciences, Vol. 30(2):17-39.

Chapter 1. Climate justice: addressing the responsibility for climate changeAt the heart of climate justice is research and understanding of the inequalities associated with global warming. By seeking to address all dimensions of vulnerability to climate change, particularly social vulnerability, the concept of climate justice contributes to developing our responsibility to address the climate emergency. However, in an operational approach, climate justice has several approaches depending on who is interested and claims it. From the climate justice demanded to repair an ecological debt, to climate justice as a principle of action recognized and implemented in public policies, many perspectives are emerging to think of a development model that is more united and respectful of the rights of everyone, including the most vulnerable and the most deprived.

RevDate: 2019-08-28

Smith CJ (2019)

Pediatric Thermoregulation: Considerations in the Face of Global Climate Change.

Nutrients, 11(9): pii:nu11092010.

Predicted global climate change, including rising average temperatures, increasing airborne pollution, and ultraviolet radiation exposure, presents multiple environmental stressors contributing to increased morbidity and mortality. Extreme temperatures and more frequent and severe heat events will increase the risk of heat-related illness and associated complications in vulnerable populations, including infants and children. Historically, children have been viewed to possess inferior thermoregulatory capabilities, owing to lower sweat rates and higher core temperature responses compared to adults. Accumulating evidence counters this notion, with limited child-adult differences in thermoregulation evident during mild and moderate heat exposure, with increased risk of heat illness only at environmental extremes. In the context of predicted global climate change, extreme environmental temperatures will be encountered more frequently, placing children at increased risk. Thermoregulatory and overall physiological strain in high temperatures may be further exacerbated by exposure to/presence of physiological and environmental stressors including pollution, ultraviolet radiation, obesity, diabetes, associated comorbidities, and polypharmacy that are more commonly occurring at younger ages. The aim of this review is to revisit fundamental differences in child-adult thermoregulation in the face of these multifaceted climate challenges, address emerging concerns, and emphasize risk reduction strategies for the health and performance of children in the heat.

RevDate: 2019-09-05

Jactel H, Koricheva J, B Castagneyrol (2019)

Responses of forest insect pests to climate change: not so simple.

Current opinion in insect science, 35:103-108 pii:S2214-5745(19)30022-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is a multi-faceted phenomenon, including elevated CO2, warmer temperatures, more severe droughts and more frequent storms. All these components can affect forest pests directly, or indirectly through interactions with host trees and natural enemies. Most of the responses of forest insect herbivores to climate change are expected to be positive, with shorter generation time, higher fecundity and survival, leading to increased range expansion and outbreaks. Forest insect pest can also benefit from synergistic effects of several climate change pressures, such as hotter droughts or warmer storms. However, lesser known negative effects are also likely, such as lethal effects of heat waves or thermal shocks, less palatable host tissues or more abundant parasitoids and predators. The complex interplay between abiotic stressors, host trees, insect herbivores and their natural enemies makes it very difficult to predict overall consequences of climate change on forest health. This calls for the development of process-based models to simulate pest population dynamics under climate change scenarios.

RevDate: 2019-08-27

Bradshaw CD, Hemming D, Baker R, et al (2019)

A novel approach for exploring climatic factors limiting current pest distributions: A case study of Bemisia tabaci in north-west Europe and assessment of potential future establishment in the United Kingdom under climate change.

PloS one, 14(8):e0221057 pii:PONE-D-19-09863.

Bemisia tabaci (the tobacco whitefly) is an important agricultural pest of global significance primarily because of its ability to transmit multiple damaging plant viruses. To date, UK outbreaks of the whitefly have been restricted to glasshouses and there are no records of the whitefly establishing outdoors during the summer. This is despite the fact that annual degree-day models (that estimate accumulated warmth over the year above the development threshold), indicate that B. tabaci has the thermal potential for multiple summer generations in the UK. A set of 49 climate indices calculated using the present day climate (1986-2015) were therefore compared between the UK and the south of France, where B. tabaci is able to establish outdoors, to identify the factors limiting its establishment. The number of cold days and nights in summer, as well as the time spent within the whitefly's optimum temperature range, were most significantly different between the two areas. These indices may impact the development of B. tabaci and offer an explanation for the absence of the whitefly outdoors in the UK during the summer. Further analyses undertaken with climate projections suggest that in a 2-4°C warmer world this pest could pose a risk to outdoor UK crops in July and August. A clear south-north gradient can be demonstrated for these indices. Linking any possible northwards spread of B. tabaci populations outdoors in France with changes in these indices could therefore provide an important indicator of any change in the risks of outdoor populations of this species developing in the UK. The effectiveness of climate indices in pest risk analysis is compellingly demonstrated, and it is recommended that in-depth comparisons of climatic indices between areas of pest presence and absence are conducted in other situations where forecasting the risks of pest establishment are complex and challenging.

RevDate: 2019-09-05

Boukal DS, Bideault A, Carreira BM, et al (2019)

Species interactions under climate change: connecting kinetic effects of temperature on individuals to community dynamics.

Current opinion in insect science, 35:88-95 pii:S2214-5745(19)30044-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Human-induced climate change, dominated by warming trends, poses a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Species interactions relay the direct and indirect effects of climate warming on individuals to communities, and detailed understanding across these levels is crucial to predict ecological consequences of climate change. We provide a conceptual framework that links temperature effects on insect physiology and behaviour to altered species interactions and community dynamics. We highlight key features of this framework with recent studies investigating the impacts of warming climate on insects and other ectotherms and identify methodological, taxonomic and geographic biases. While the effects of increased constant temperatures are now well understood, future studies should focus on temperature variation, interactions with other stressors and cross-system comparisons.

RevDate: 2019-08-23

Flower H, Rains M, Carl Fitz H, et al (2019)

Shifting Ground: Landscape-Scale Modeling of Biogeochemical Processes under Climate Change in the Florida Everglades.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-019-01200-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Scenarios modeling can be a useful tool to plan for climate change. In this study, we help Everglades restoration planning to bolster climate change resiliency by simulating plausible ecosystem responses to three climate change scenarios: a Baseline scenario of 2010 climate, and two scenarios that both included 1.5 °C warming and 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and differed only by rainfall: either increase or decrease by 10%. In conjunction with output from a water-use management model, we used these scenarios to drive the Everglades Landscape Model to simulate changes in a suite of parameters that include both hydrologic drivers and changes to soil pattern and process. In this paper we focus on the freshwater wetlands; sea level rise is specifically addressed in prior work. The decreased rainfall scenario produced marked changes across the system in comparison to the Baseline scenario. Most notably, muck fire risk was elevated for 49% of the period of simulation in one of the three indicator regions. Surface water flow velocity slowed drastically across most of the system, which may impair soil processes related to maintaining landscape patterning. Due to lower flow volumes, this scenario produced decreases in parameters related to flow-loading, such as phosphorus accumulation in the soil, and methylmercury production risk. The increased rainfall scenario was hydrologically similar to the Baseline scenario due to existing water management rules. A key change was phosphorus accumulation in the soil, an effect of flow-loading due to higher inflow from water control structures in this scenario.

RevDate: 2019-08-25

Bains KK, T Turnbull (2019)

Improving Health Outcomes and Serving Wider Society: The Potential Role of Understanding and Cultivating Prosocial Purpose Within Health Psychology Research and Practice to Address Climate Change and Social Isolation and Loneliness.

Frontiers in psychology, 10:1787.

Human beings face unprecedented social and environmental challenges which require collective action and changes in health-related behavior. The threat of climate change is becoming an increasingly urgent issue for humanity and the natural environment. Alongside this, there is evidence that loneliness and social isolation can significantly impact cardiovascular health and mortality through direct and indirect processes, for example by increasing risky behaviors. However, one construct that has so far received little attention in health psychology is that of purpose. Purpose is thought to be self-regulatory; it derives from a greater sense of meaning yet is goal-directed and involves a stable and generalized intention toward accomplishment. The development of a sense of purpose is associated with improved mental and physical health. However, it is possible that one facet of purpose, prosocial orientation, may have a particularly beneficial effect on psychological well-being, increasing generativity and personal growth. Prosocial purpose may also help explain the growth in the number of people in the West who are reducing their meat and dairy intake, which may help mitigate climate change. It may also help explain the rise of civic engagement in environmental volunteering and support for conservation amongst some individuals and communities, which can also confer additional health benefits. Cultivating prosocial purpose may aid engagement in behavior change initiatives which may improve individual health and help address these wider social challenges, such as changing one's diet to help address climate change, volunteering and engaging in physical activity outdoors to support the environment, and supporting active engagement with vulnerable groups at risk of social isolation and loneliness. Cultivating prosocial purpose may also support self-advocacy for social changes which can benefit community health. It may be possible to cultivate prosocial purpose through interventions which involve experiential and abstract learning experiences that increase empathy, stimulate reflection and lead to meaning-making processes. This may then facilitate development of a sense of prosocial purpose because meaning-making is thought to be a precursor to purpose development. Doing so may be important to engage populations in efforts to combat climate change and address social isolation and loneliness.

RevDate: 2019-08-27

Marsooli R, Lin N, Emanuel K, et al (2019)

Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns.

Nature communications, 10(1):3785 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z.

One of the most destructive natural hazards, tropical cyclone (TC)-induced coastal flooding, will worsen under climate change. Here we conduct climatology-hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the effects of sea level rise (SLR) and TC climatology change (under RCP 8.5) on late 21st century flood hazards at the county level along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. We find that, under the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change, the historical 100-year flood level would occur annually in New England and mid-Atlantic regions and every 1-30 years in southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions in the late 21st century. The relative effect of TC climatology change increases continuously from New England, mid-Atlantic, southeast Atlantic, to the Gulf of Mexico, and the effect of TC climatology change is likely to be larger than the effect of SLR for over 40% of coastal counties in the Gulf of Mexico.

RevDate: 2019-08-23

Hobbhahn N, Fears R, Haines A, et al (2019)

Urgent action is needed to protect human health from the increasing effects of climate change.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 3(8):e333-e335.

RevDate: 2019-08-25

Barteit S, Sié A, Yé M, et al (2019)

Lessons learned on teaching a global audience with massive open online courses (MOOCs) on health impacts of climate change: a commentary.

Globalization and health, 15(1):52 pii:10.1186/s12992-019-0494-6.

BACKGROUND: The adverse health impacts of climate change are increasing on a global level. However, knowledge about climate change and health is still unavailable to many global citizens, in particular on adaptation measures and co-benefits of health mitigation. Educational technologies, such as massive open online courses (MOOCs), may have a high potential for providing access to information about climate change links to health for a global audience.

MAIN BODY: We developed three MOOCs addressing the link between climate change and health to take advantage of the methodology's broad reach and accelerate knowledge dissemination on the nexus of climate change and health. The primary objective was to translate an existing face-to-face short course that only reached a few participants on climate change and health into globally accessible learning opportunities. In the following, we share and comment on our lessons learned with the three MOOCs, with a focus on global teaching in the realm of climate change and health.

CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the three MOOCs attracted a global audience with diverse educational backgrounds, and a large number of participants from low-income countries. Our experience highlights that MOOCs may play a part in global capacity building, potentially for other health-related topics as well, as we have found that our MOOCs have attracted participants within low-resource contexts. MOOCs may be an effective method for teaching and training global students on health topics, in this case on the complex links and dynamics between climate change and health and may further act as an enabler for equitable access to quality education.

RevDate: 2019-08-22

Bandura A, L Cherry (2019)

Enlisting the power of youth for climate change.

The American psychologist pii:2019-49287-001 [Epub ahead of print].

Despite efforts by the adult generation to stem the rise of global warming, the planet is getting hotter every year. The present article analyzes, within the framework of social-cognitive theory, highly resourceful youth conducting environmental programs that curtail heat-trapping gases and protect various ecological supports of life. The children's intuitive principles of change closely matched the formal principles of social-cognitive theory. Social media equip youth with unlimited reach and promote large-scale environmental impact. Their ingenious practices provide the foundation for a powerful youth environmental movement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

RevDate: 2019-08-22

Layton-Matthews K, Hansen BB, Grøtan V, et al (2019)

Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population-dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non-hunted population of high-arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual-based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age-specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green-up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non-breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density-dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density-dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study emphasizes the need for holistic approaches when studying population-dynamic responses to global change in migratory species.

RevDate: 2019-08-22

Hansen BB, Pedersen ÅØ, Peeters B, et al (2019)

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long-term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

The 'Moran effect' predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large-scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high-Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8-324 km apart suggested that density-dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one 'continental' reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density-dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift-with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity-led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.

RevDate: 2019-08-22

Rumpel C (2019)

Soils linked to climate change.

Nature, 572(7770):442-443.

RevDate: 2019-08-22

Jeong MC, J Kim (2019)

Prediction and Analysis of Electrical Accidents and Risk Due to Climate Change.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(16): pii:ijerph16162984.

The industrial development and the increase in the use of fossil fuels have been accelerating global warming and climate change, thereby causing more frequent and intense natural disasters than ever before. Since electrical facilities are generally installed outdoors, they are greatly affected by natural disasters, thus accidents related to electrical equipment has been on the rise. In this paper, we present the risk rating associated with climate change by analyzing the statistics of electrical fires, electric shock accidents and electrical equipment accidents caused by domestic climate change. Further, we present a risk rating analysis model for electrical fires on a monthly basis through the data analysis of electrical hazards associated with various regional (metropolitan city) climatic conditions (temperature, humidity), and analyze the accident risk rating for natural disasters related to low and high voltage equipment. Through this risk analysis model for each region and type of equipment, we presented a basic prediction model for electrical hazards. Therefore, it is possible to provide electrical safety services in the future by displaying a risk prediction map of electrical hazards for each region and type of electrical equipment through web sites or smart phone apps using the presented analysis data. Further, efforts should be made to increase the robustness or reliability of electrical equipment in order to prevent electrical accidents caused by natural disasters due to climate change in advance.

RevDate: 2019-09-05

Lancker K, Deppenmeier AL, Demissie T, et al (2019)

Climate change adaptation and the role of fuel subsidies: An empirical bio-economic modeling study for an artisanal open-access fishery.

PloS one, 14(8):e0220433 pii:PONE-D-18-25352.

Climate change can severely impact artisanal fisheries and affect the role they play in food security. We study climate change effects on the triple bottom line of ecological productivity, fishers' incomes, and fish consumption for an artisanal open-access fishery. We develop and apply an empirical, stochastic bio-economic model for the Senegalese artisanal purse seine fishery on small pelagic fish and compare the simulated fishery's development using four climate projections and two policy scenarios. We find that economic processes of adaptation may amplify the effects of climate variations. The regions' catch potential increases with climate change, induced by stock distribution changes. However, this outcome escalates over-fishing, whose effects outpace the incipiently favorable climate change effects under three of the four climate projections. Without policy action, the fishery is estimated to collapse in 2030-2035 on average over 1000 runs. We propose an easily implementable and overall welfare-increasing intervention: reduction of fuel subsidies. If fuel subsidies were abolished, ecological sustainability as well as the fishery's welfare contribution would increase regardless of the climate projection.

RevDate: 2019-09-05

DeLisi C (2019)

The role of synthetic biology in climate change mitigation.

Biology direct, 14(1):14 pii:10.1186/s13062-019-0247-8.

There is growing agreement that the aim of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, is not likely to be met without inclusion of methods to physically remove atmospheric carbon. A number of approaches have been suggested, but the community appears to be silent on the potential of one of the most revolutionary technologies of the current century, systems and synthetic biology (SSB). The potential of SSB to modulate the fast carbon cycle, and thereby mitigate climate change is in itself enormous, but if the history of genomics is any measure, it is also reasonable to expect sizeable economic returns on any investment. More generally, the approach to climate control has been badly unbalanced. The last three decades have seen intense international attention to emission control, with no parallel plan to test, scale and implement carbon removal technologies, including attention to their economic, legal and ethical implications. REVIEWERS: This article was reviewed by Richard Roberts, Aristides Patrinos, and Eugene Koonin, all of whom were nominated by Itai Yanai. For the full reviews, please go to the Reviewers' comments section.

RevDate: 2019-08-20

Hanafi-Bojd AA, Vatandoost H, MR Yaghoobi-Ershadi (2019)

Climate Change and the Risk of Malaria Transmission in Iran.

Journal of medical entomology pii:5552077 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is an important factor affecting the dynamics of the vectors population and, hence, the risk of vector-borne diseases. This study aimed to predict the environmental suitability for malaria vectors in Iran under climate change scenarios in 2030s and 2050s. Literature search was performed to find documents on the spatial distribution of Anopheles stephensi Liston, 1901, Anopheles culicifacies s.l. Giles, 1901, Anopheles fluviatilis s.l. James, 1902, Anopheles superpictus s.l. Grassi, 1899, Anopheles dthali Patton, 1905, Anopheles maculipennis s.l. Meigen, 1818, and Anopheles sacharovi Favre, 1903 (Diptera: Culicidae) published between 1970 and 2017. The bioclimatic data under three climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathway 2.6 [RCP2.6], RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and MaxEnt model were used to predict the ecological niches for each species. Comparison between the two study periods under the three scenarios for each species revealed that RCP8.5 would reduce the area at risk for An. culicifacies s.l., An. dthali and An. superpictus s.l. in the 2050s compared to the 2030s, but the reverse will be induced by RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. For An. fluviatilis s.l., RCP2.6 will reduce the risk areas in the 2050s, whereas an increase is expected under the two other scenarios. Moreover, all scenarios would decrease the high-risk areas of An. maculipennis s.l. in the 2050s. For An. sacharovi, RCP2.6 would increase its high-risk areas, whereas RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would decrease its exposure. The high-risk area of An. stephensi is expected to increase under RCP8.5 in the 2030s and RCP4.5 in 2050s, but it will be almost unchanged or reduced under other scenarios.

RevDate: 2019-08-20

Yang B, Demorest S, B Krzyzanowski (2019)

Mitigating a Nursing School's Impact on Climate Change: A Quality Improvement Project.

Creative nursing, 25(3):e15-e24.

BACKGROUND: Mitigation is one approach to addressing climate change, which focuses on reducing carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions. Nurses play a critical role in mitigation to prevent the health impacts of climate change. Recommendations to mitigate climate change in higher education institutions reflect four themes: policy, people, process, and practice. This quality improvement project aimed to mitigate a metropolitan nursing school's impacts on climate change.

METHODS: A Sustainability Champion Workgroup was formed to address gaps identified in the organizational needs assessment. A No Waste November (NWN) campaign and a sustainability dashboard were created to engage participants and increase awareness about climate change and environmentally sustainable behaviors. A pre- and post-NWN survey, adapted from the Nurses' Environmental Awareness Tool, and waste disposal measurements over 6 weeks were used to assess the impact of these interventions.

RESULTS: The post-NWN survey showed the greatest increases in mean scores for the following environmentally sustainable behaviors: biking, walking, carpooling, or taking public transportation to work; leading or participating in recycling initiatives; serving on committees that purchase sustainable supplies; and composting. Waste disposal measurements revealed a higher proportion of recycling to landfill waste during 5 out of the 6 weeks of measurement.

CONCLUSION: Nurses and higher education institutions play an important role in mitigating the human impacts on climate change through environmental sustainability initiatives. Barriers to adopting environmentally sustainable behaviors and incentives to support these behaviors also need to be examined and addressed in future projects.

RevDate: 2019-08-20

Connerton CS, AK Wooton (2019)

Building Community Resilience to Mitigate Mental Health Effects of Climate Change.

Creative nursing, 25(3):e9-e14.

As global warming is taking effect, the number of natural disasters such as hurricanes, tornados, flooding, drought, and wildfires is increasing. The purpose of this article is to address the impacts of climate change on human health, using a model developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The effects of natural disasters on mental health, and actions nurses can take to help build strong, resilient communities, are discussed in detail. Increasing awareness and building resilience will improve health outcomes. Strong social connections are a key component of community resilience. Strengthening the infrastructure of communities can mitigate the impact of climate changes.

RevDate: 2019-08-20

Wasco JJ (2019)

Strategies for Teaching Online RN-to-BSN Students the Health Impacts of Climate Change.

Creative nursing, 25(3):e1-e8.

The impact of climate change on human health is projected to worsen over the next century, threatening the world's population. Nurses need to be knowledgeable about the causes of climate change and its direct and indirect health consequences, to be able to provide appropriate care and to advocate for policy change. More now than ever, nursing faculty are charged with the responsibility to educate future health professionals about this important topic. This article provides an introduction to the impacts of climate change on nursing care delivery and shares the pedagogy of an introductory course developed for an online, postlicensure RN-BSN program based at a university with deep roots in environmental sustainability.

RevDate: 2019-08-20

Chalupka S, L Anderko (2019)

Climate Change and Schools: Implications for Children's Health and Safety.

Creative nursing, 25(3):249-257.

The predicted impacts of climate change are fast becoming a reality and are already adversely affecting human health and health systems. Events such as flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires are challenging communities to re-evaluate whether their schools provide a safe, healthy environment. Among the populations most vulnerable to the impacts of our changing climate are our children. Nurses are key to supporting mitigation and adaptation efforts to promote more resilient school environments, using approaches based on values of the common good and social justice.

RevDate: 2019-08-20

Demorest S, Spengeman S, Schenk E, et al (2019)

The Nurses Climate Challenge: A National Campaign to Engage 5,000 Health Professionals Around Climate Change.

Creative nursing, 25(3):208-215.

Climate change poses significant threats to human health and worsens existing inequities. The health sector is a significant contributor to climate change, making up approximately 10% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Yet most nurses do not learn about the health dangers of climate change in their education or in practice, and therefore are ill-equipped to lead action on climate change. When educated about climate change, nurses can effectively lead climate adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed at creating healthier populations. As the most trusted professionals and making up 40% of the health-care workforce, nurses have the potential to impact behavior change and launch a movement around climate solutions. Health Care Without Harm and the Alliance of Nurses for Healthy Environments partnered on the "Nurses Climate Challenge" with the aim of nurses educating 5,000 health professionals on climate and health. In the Nurses Climate Challenge, nurses register as Nurse Climate Champions and gain access to online resources to plan and host educational sessions about climate change. After educating, Nurse Climate Champions return to the online platform to track their progress. Within 10 months, over 540 Nurse Climate Champions from 6 continents, 16 countries, and 42 U.S. states registered for access to the resources. To date, the champions have educated over 5,250 colleagues and students about climate and health. Based on early metrics, this model of education and engagement around climate action may be applicable for other disciplines in health care and beyond.

RevDate: 2019-08-20

Morgan RE (2019)

Determined Action to Tackle Health Determinants: A Collaborative Response to the Challenge of Climate Change Mitigation in Practice Settings.

Creative nursing, 25(3):195-200.

The physical environment has long been understood as a major determinant of health and well-being. In recent years, the relationship between health and the environment has become particularly pronounced, with the impacts of climate change identified as having the potential to reverse the last 50 years of public health advancement (Watts et al., 2015). Increasingly, professional bodies within health care are called upon to frame climate change as a health issue. Despite this, studies have found that nurses report feeling ill-equipped to respond to environmental changes and the resulting health impacts (Anåker, Nilsson, Holmner, & Elf, 2015; Lewis, 2018; Polivka, Chaudry, & Mac Crawford, 2011). This article recognizes some of the barriers facing concerned health-care professionals who wish to introduce climate mitigation activities within their sphere of professional operation. The Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation (Victorian Branch) was approached by nurses, midwives, and carers, to become more involved in policy debates surrounding climate change and to provide stronger support to members in responding to environmental issues. The result is top-down and bottom-up responses working in synergy for climate change mitigation, by empowering nurses to make changes to their professional practice.

RevDate: 2019-08-29

Anonymous (2019)

Building a Global Movement for Health: Nurse Leadership on Climate Change.

Creative nursing, 25(3):191-194.

RevDate: 2019-08-20

Sueur J, Krause B, A Farina (2019)

Climate Change Is Breaking Earth's Beat.

Trends in ecology & evolution pii:S0169-5347(19)30226-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Forests, deserts, rivers, and oceans are filled with animal vocalizations and geological sounds. We postulate that climate change is changing the Earth's natural acoustic fabric. In particular, we identify shifts in acoustic structure that all sound-sensitive organisms, marine and terrestrial, may experience. Only upstream solutions might mitigate these acoustic changes.

RevDate: 2019-08-19

Saberi P, Nabeel I, Cook-Shimanek M, et al (2019)

"How can Climate Change Impact the Workplace and Worker Health?" Part 3: Air Pollution, Greenhouse Gases, and Cardiorespiratory Health.

Journal of occupational and environmental medicine [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-08-22

Choi F, Gouhier T, Lima F, et al (2019)

Mapping physiology: biophysical mechanisms define scales of climate change impacts.

Conservation physiology, 7(1):coz028 pii:coz028.

The rocky intertidal zone is a highly dynamic and thermally variable ecosystem, where the combined influences of solar radiation, air temperature and topography can lead to differences greater than 15°C over the scale of centimetres during aerial exposure at low tide. For most intertidal organisms this small-scale heterogeneity in microclimates can have enormous influences on survival and physiological performance. However, the potential ecological importance of environmental heterogeneity in determining ecological responses to climate change remains poorly understood. We present a novel framework for generating spatially explicit models of microclimate heterogeneity and patterns of thermal physiology among interacting organisms. We used drone photogrammetry to create a topographic map (digital elevation model) at a resolution of 2 × 2 cm from an intertidal site in Massachusetts, which was then fed into to a model of incident solar radiation based on sky view factor and solar position. These data were in turn used to drive a heat budget model that estimated hourly surface temperatures over the course of a year (2017). Body temperature layers were then converted to thermal performance layers for organisms, using thermal performance curves, creating 'physiological landscapes' that display spatially and temporally explicit patterns of 'microrefugia'. Our framework shows how non-linear interactions between these layers lead to predictions about organismal performance and survivorship that are distinct from those made using any individual layer (e.g. topography, temperature) alone. We propose a new metric for quantifying the 'thermal roughness' of a site (RqT, the root mean square of spatial deviations in temperature), which can be used to quantify spatial and temporal variability in temperature and performance at the site level. These methods facilitate an exploration of the role of micro-topographic variability in driving organismal vulnerability to environmental change using both spatially explicit and frequency-based approaches.

RevDate: 2019-08-22

Lickley M, Cael BB, S Solomon (2019)

Time of Steady Climate Change.

Geophysical research letters, 46(10):5445-5451.

Under an emission scenario where atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized, previous work suggests that on centennial time scales the rate of global temperature increases would steady at significantly lower rates than those of the 21st century. As climate change is not globally uniform, regional differences in achieving this steady rate of warming can be expected. Here, we define a "Time of Steady Change" (TSC) as the time of reaching this steady rate of warming, and we present a method for estimating TSC with the use of General Circulation Model experiments run under greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios. We find that TSC occurs latest in low latitudes and in the Arctic, despite these areas steadying at very different absolute warming rates. These broad patterns are robust across multiple General Circulation Model ensembles and alternative definitions of TSC. These results indicate large regional differences in the trajectory of climate change in coming centuries.

RevDate: 2019-08-19

Suggitt AJ, Lister DG, CD Thomas (2019)

Widespread Effects of Climate Change on Local Plant Diversity.

Current biology : CB pii:S0960-9822(19)30839-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Human activity has sent many measures of biodiversity into long-term decline, and there are suggestions that the sheer scale of this impact is sufficient to consider the modern era as a geological epoch of its own, known as "The Anthropocene" [1]. However, recent meta-analyses show that local alpha diversity is often stable or slightly increasing [2-4]. Here, we show that the local alpha diversity (species richness) of plants found in quadrats and transects has increased the most in cooler regions of the world that have experienced the highest absolute changes (i.e., changes in either direction) in climate. The greatest statistical support is for the effects of precipitation change. On average, alpha diversity declined slightly (-4.2% per decade) in the third of sites that experienced the lowest precipitation change but increased (+10.8% per decade) in the third of sites with the highest precipitation change. These results suggest that the "perturbation" of local communities during climatic transitions increases the average number of species, at least temporarily, an effect likely to remain important as climate change continues.

RevDate: 2019-09-04

Fastelli P, M Renzi (2019)

Exposure of key marine species to sunscreens: Changing ecotoxicity as a possible indirect effect of global warming.

Marine pollution bulletin, 149:110517 pii:S0025-326X(19)30655-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Sunscreens can induce ecotoxicological effects and may cause significant impacts in the aquatic ecosystem. In spite of that, ecotoxicological responses of key marine species to sunscreens are scarcely studied in Mediterranean ecosystems, and literature data are lacking. Furthermore, changes in water salinity induced by global warming could significantly affect the ecotoxicological responses of marine species exposed to sunscreens. This research focuses on the evaluation of ecotoxicological responses of Phaeodactylum tricornutum (algae), Corophium orientalis (macroinvertebrate), and Paracentrotus lividus (echinoderms) exposed to sunscreens, which include both chemical- and physical-based. This study, also, analyzes the changes in ecotoxicological responses of the tested species linked to increase in salinity. Results showed that salinity stress significantly increases the toxicity of sunscreens on the tested marine species. Physical-based sunscreens resulted in more toxicity at higher salinity than chemical-based ones toward C. orientalis and P. tricornutum. This study evidenced that risk classifications of sunscreens recorded under standard salinity conditions could be significantly different from that recorded in the natural environment under salinity stress. The collection of a complete dataset on the ecotoxicological effects of sunscreens on marine species tested under salinity stress could be useful to correctly weigh risks for the marine environment under possible future ecological changing scenarios following the global changing driver.

RevDate: 2019-08-21

Küttim M, Laine AM, Küttim L, et al (2019)

Winter climate change increases physiological stress in calcareous fen bryophytes.

The Science of the total environment, 695:133867 pii:S0048-9697(19)33817-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Calcareous spring fens are among the rarest and most endangered wetland types worldwide. The majority of these ecosystems can be found at high latitudes, where they are affected by above average rates of climate change. Particularly winter temperatures are increasing, which results in decreased snow cover. As snow provides an insulating layer that protects ecosystems from subzero temperatures, its decrease is likely to induce stress to plants. To investigate the sensitivity of the bryophyte community - key to the functioning of calcareous spring fens - to changing climatic conditions, we studied the annual variation in ecophysiology of two dominant bryophytes: Campylium stellatum and Scorpidium scorpioides. Further, a snow removal experiment was used to simulate the effect of changing winter conditions. In both species, we observed lowest efficiency of photosystem II (Fv/Fm) in spring, indicating physiological stress, and highest chlorophyll-a, -b and carotenoid concentrations in autumn. Snow removal exacerbated physiological stress in bryophytes. Consequently Fv/Fm, pigment concentrations and chlorophyll to carotenoids ratios declined, while chlorophyll-a to -b ratios increased. Moreover, these effects of winter climate change cascaded to the growing season. C. stellatum, a low hummock inhabitor, suffered more from snow removal (annual mean decline in Fv/Fm 7.7% and 30.0% in chlorophyll-a) than S. scorpioides, a hollow species (declines 5.4% and 14.5%, respectively). Taken together, our results indicate that spring fen bryophytes are negatively impacted by winter climate change, as a result of longer frost periods and increased numbers of freeze-thaw cycles in combination with higher light intensity and dehydration.

RevDate: 2019-08-20

Rodríguez-González A, Zanin M, E Menasalvas-Ruiz (2019)

Public Health and Epidemiology Informatics: Can Artificial Intelligence Help Future Global Challenges? An Overview of Antimicrobial Resistance and Impact of Climate Change in Disease Epidemiology.

Yearbook of medical informatics, 28(1):224-231.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an oveiview of the current application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the field of public health and epidemiology, with a special focus on antimicrobial resistance and the impact of climate change in disease epidemiology. Both topics are of vital importance and were included in the "Ten threats to global health in 2019" report published by the World Health Organization.

METHODS: We analysed publications that appeared in the last two years, between January 2017 and October 2018. Papers were searched using Google Scholar with the following keywords: public health, epidemiology, machine learning, data analytics, artificial intelligence, disease surveillance, climate change, antimicrobial resistance, and combinations thereof. Selected articles were organised by theme.

RESULTS: In spite of a large interest in AI generated both within and outside the scientific community, and of the many opinions pointing towards the importance of a better use of data in public health, few papers have been published on the selected topics in the last two years. We identify several potential reasons, including the complexity of the integration of heterogeneous data, and the lack of sound and unbiased validation procedures.

CONCLUSIONS: As there is a better comprehension of AI and more funding available, artificial intelligence will become not only the centre of attention in informatics, but more importantly the source of innovative solutions for public health.

RevDate: 2019-08-21

Kokkoris IP, Bekri ES, Skuras D, et al (2019)

Integrating MAES implementation into protected area management under climate change: A fine-scale application in Greece.

The Science of the total environment, 695:133530 pii:S0048-9697(19)33449-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Increasing anthropogenic pressures often jeopardize ecosystem integrity and policy-relevant conservation management in protected areas. To harmonize nature conservation with human well-being, EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 suggests Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES) as the key concept for environmental planning and management in EU Member States. Applying this procedure is challenging due to its data-demanding and multidisciplinary nature, resulting in the ecoystem services (ES) approach being scarcely used in protected areas management. Increased data availability under EU biodiversity-related inventories and monitoring projects, as well as theoretical and empirical research advances developed during the last decade, should be put into practice to guide Member States towards local management frameworks and scenario building under the ongoing changes in the EU socio-economic environment. This study aims at filling this gap by embodying into the MAES operational framework a scenario-based approach and demonstrates this in a challenging case study of a Natura 2000 site, Lake Stymfalia, in Greece. The present management strategy, an ecological-friendly management practice, a water-efficient management practice and a non-environmentally friendly option (e.g. ecosystem destruction) are examined for current and future water demand under current and future climatic scenarios. The proposed methodological framework for ES operationalization is based on the available data (derived by EU Directives and/or modelling), expert judgment and stakeholder involvement. Therefore, this work applies and tests the importance of the MAES approach as a management and coordination platform.

RevDate: 2019-09-03
CmpDate: 2019-09-03

Jiang LH, Gao JQ, JZ Wan (2019)

[Potential habitat and priority protection area of cranes with climate change in the Great Xing'an Mountains, China].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 30(7):2457-2469.

To clarify the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of six crane species in the Great Xing'an Mountains region, and promote the effective protection of these species, we selected key environmental variables such as climate, topography, and vegetation type based on Pearson correlation and Jackknife analysis, and modeled the potential distribution of six crane species in the Great Xing'an Mountains using MaxEnt with the current and the future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We identified the priority protection areas (PPAs) and the target PPAs by zonation and ArcGIS. The results showed that with the current climate condition, the sui-table habitats of these species were mainly distributed in the central and the northwest part of the Great Xing'an Mountains. With RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the suitable habitats of Grus monacha, Grus japonensis, Grus vipio, Grus grus and Anthropoides virgo would decrease, while that of Grus leucogeranus would expand by 5.4%-6.3%. With current and the future climate change scenarios, the PPAs of these species were mainly distributed in the northwest, southeast and west-central parts of the Great Xing'an Mountains. The protect rate could reach about 20.1%-23.8% of the target PPAs conserved by protected areas (PAs). The protection gaps were mainly distributed in the west of Mohe County, the north-central of Ergun, the central and east of Genhe, the northeast of Yakeshi, and the south of Oroqen Autonomous Banner. We proposed to expand PAs to provide a strong guarantee for the effective protection of cranes species.

RevDate: 2019-09-03
CmpDate: 2019-09-03

Qiao JJ, Wang T, Pan L, et al (2019)

[Responses of radial growth to climate change in Pinus massoniana at different altitudes and slopes.].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 30(7):2231-2240.

With dendrochronology method, standard and residual chronologies of Pinus massoniana were established at low altitude (260 m), middle altitude (460 m), high altitude (690 m), sunny slope (270 m), and shady slope (265 m). Relationships between the tree-ring width and the climatic factors were quantified using correlation analysis and redundancy analysis (RDA). The optimal multiple regression models for the radial growth of P. massoniana and the climatic factors were established. We analyzed the change rule of radial growth and its relationship with the climatic factors along with the altitude and slope. The results showed that the radial growth of P. massoniana was significantly affected by precipitation and temperature across the altitude gradient and the slope level, respectively. Among the 120 climatic variables, precipitation in December of last year and the extreme minimum temperature in February of current year had the most significant negative effects on the radial growth at different altitudes and slopes, respectively. This study quantitatively described the impacts of climate change on the radial growth of P. massoniana in the subtropical region, and provided a scientific basis for the planting and management of P. massoniana forest in Jiangle Country under the climate warming background.

RevDate: 2019-09-03
CmpDate: 2019-09-03

Han JS, Zhao HY, Zhu LJ, et al (2019)

[Comparing the responses of radial growth between Quercus mongolica and Phellodendron amurense to climate change in Xiaoxing'an Mountains, China.].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 30(7):2218-2230.

Quercus mongolica and Phellodendron amurense are two important broad-leaved species in temperate forests of Northeast China. It is critical to explore their responses to climate change for supporting management, protection, and restoration of the broad-leaved forest in Northeast China under the future climate change scenario. Three sampling sites along a longitude gradient, Heilun, Tieli and Yichun, were set up in the Xiaoxing'an Mountains. Dendrochronological methods were used to establish standard chronologies for Q. mongolica and P. amurense. Correlation analyses were conducted between these chronologies and local climatic factors to establish the spatial and temporal variations in growth-climate relationship of Q. mongolica and P. amurense. The results showed that the radial growth of P. amurense was sensitive to temperature, while that of Q. mongolica was limi-ted by both temperature and precipitation. The temperature sensitivities of these two species were different. High spring temperature inhibited the radial growth of Q. mongolica, but promoted that of P. amurense. The limiting effect of high maximum temperature in summer on radial growth of Q. mongolica was significantly higher than that of P. amurense. With the increases of longitude (water availability), the correlation coefficients between radial growth of Q. mongolica and precipitation gradually weakened, while P. amurense didn't change. The physiological characteristics of those tree species was the key factors affecting their growth-climate relationship. With the significant warming since the 1976, the growth trend of P. amurense increased, whilst that of Q. mongolica decreased. Deteriorated drought stress caused by warming and difference in the species' ability to cope with water deficits might be the main reasons for different responses of two species, and for the divergence phenomenon occurring for Q. mongolica. If warming continues or worsens in the future, the growth of Q. mongolica may decline due to the intensified drought stress, while that of P. amurense may be less affected or be slightly enhanced.

RevDate: 2019-08-16

Shao JY, DU JH, Li SF, et al (2019)

[Tree seedling distribution, regeneration mechanism and response to climate change in alpine treeline ecotone].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 30(8):2854-2864.

Tree seedlings are one of the important components in alpine treeline ecotone, whose regeneration is crucial to treeline migration in response to climate change. We analyzed the spatial distribution, regeneration of tree seedlings and their responses to climate change in treeline ecotone in recent decades. The spatial distribution of tree seedlings in treeline ecotone is dominated by diffuse and clustered forms, with different indicative significance for spatial dynamics of treeline. At global scale, the altitude distribution limits of tree seedlings are usually related to the length and average temperature of growing season, along with the species characteristics. However, precipita-tion plays an important role at regional scale. The initial stage of seedling recruitment is restricted by seed source, which determines seed distribution and germination to a great extent. Microenvironment facilitates seedling regeneration by providing shelter for establishment and improving their survival rate. The regeneration process is more relevant to multiple biotic, abiotic factors and their interactions. With global warming, rising temperature in treeline ecotone and more precipitation are more suitable for seedling regeneration of treeline species. The expansion of seedlings to higher elevations could be considered as the portent of timberline upwards migration. Due to species-specific adaption strategy, however, some trees only increase seedling density and timberline location is constant. In the future, it is necessary to take precise dating techniques, such as tree-ring and 14C dating, and conduct long-term in-situ monitoring and indoor simulation experiments. To provide scientific basis for mountain ecosystem restoration and conservation, we should strengthen the studies on spatial patterns and regeneration mechanism of seedlings in treeline ecotone at multiple spatio-temporal scales, the adaptation strategies of tree seedlings in different types of treeline ecotone and treeline dynamics prediction.

RevDate: 2019-08-18

Tillotson MD, Barnett HK, Bhuthimethee M, et al (2019)

Artificial selection on reproductive timing in hatchery salmon drives a phenological shift and potential maladaptation to climate change.

Evolutionary applications, 12(7):1344-1359 pii:EVA12730.

The timing of breeding migration and reproduction links generations and substantially influences individual fitness. In salmonid fishes, such phenological events (seasonal return to freshwater and spawning) vary among populations but are consistent among years, indicating local adaptation in these traits to prevailing environmental conditions. Changing reproductive phenology has been observed in many populations of Atlantic and Pacific salmon and is sometimes attributed to adaptive responses to climate change. The sockeye salmon spawning in the Cedar River near Seattle, Washington, USA, have displayed dramatic changes in spawning timing over the past 50 years, trending later through the early 1990s, and becoming earlier since then. We explored the patterns and drivers of these changes using generalized linear models and mathematical simulations to identify possible environmental correlates of the changes, and test the alternative hypothesis that hatchery propagation caused inadvertent selection on timing. The trend toward later spawning prior to 1993 was partially explained by environmental changes, but the rapid advance in spawning since was not. Instead, since its initiation in 1991, the hatchery has, on average, selected for earlier spawning, and, depending on trait heritability, could have advanced spawning by 1-3 weeks over this period. We estimated heritability of spawning date to be high (h2~0.8; 95% CI: 0.5-1.1), so the upper end of this range is not improbable, though at lower heritabilities a smaller effect would be expected. The lower reproductive success of early spawners and relatively low survival of early emerging juveniles observed in recent years suggest that artificial and natural selection are acting in opposite directions. The fitness costs of early spawning may be exacerbated by future warming; thus, the artificially advanced phenology could reduce the population's productivity. Such artificial selection is known in many salmon hatcheries, so there are broad consequences for the productivity of wild populations comingled with hatchery-produced fish.

RevDate: 2019-08-15

Ahmed A, Al-Amin AQ, R Rasiah (2019)

COP negotiations and Malaysian climate change roadmap: a comparative assessment using a dynamic environmental model.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-06141-7 [Epub ahead of print].

This study critically evaluates two COP proposals on Malaysia that have been under consideration to reduce climate damage. A top-down disaggregation framework deploying an "Empirical Regional Downscaling Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy" is used to evaluate the local government climate roadmap and Malaysia's emissions reduction agendas under COP21 and subsequently COP22 proposals. The findings show that the costs from climate damage over the period 2010-2110 under the Malaysian Optimal Climate Action scenario will amount to MYR5,483 (US$1589) billion. The commensurate climate damage costs under the COP21 and COP22 scenario would be MYR5, 264 (US$1526) billion. Thus, the effective proposal for reducing climate damage in Malaysia over the period 2010-2110 is the COP22 time-adjusted COP21 proposal but there are a number of macroeconomic cost implications for savings and consumption that policy makers must address before acting.

RevDate: 2019-08-15

Anwar MA, Zhou R, Sajjad A, et al (2019)

Climate change communication as political agenda and voters' behavior.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-06134-6 [Epub ahead of print].

"Climate change communication" is taking the strategic position in the international and national politics around the globe. In the recent decade, different developing nations have started considering "climate change communication" as an integral part of the political campaigns and sustainable development. Specifically, the current document comprised of two sections. In the first section of the study, authors briefly compared the attributes related to "climate change communication" in the mainstream political parties' manifesto for the general election 2018 in Pakistan in a qualitative manner. In the second part, the difference of opinion among voters of mainstream political parties towards "climate change" was examined. In a bird's eye view, the perceived seriousness of "climate change" as a real challenge among voters mapped by the independent factors of "urbanization," "industrialization," "transportation," and "waste management" for sustainable development through the primary quantitative survey of 732 voters in the country. The finding highlights (1) public understanding of "socio-scientific issues," i.e., climate change is easy to communicate, and (2) how political parties are framing and communicating about "climate change" plays a significant role in climate change communication. The study concludes that "climate change communication" holds a critical role in developing regions' future political discourse to shape sustainable development policies.

RevDate: 2019-08-18

Cabezas-Cartes F, Fernández JB, Duran F, et al (2019)

Potential benefits from global warming to the thermal biology and locomotor performance of an endangered Patagonian lizard.

PeerJ, 7:e7437 pii:7437.

Global warming can significantly affect many aspects of the biology of animal species, including their thermal physiology and physiological performance. Thermal performance curves provide a heuristic model to evaluate the impacts of temperature on the ecophysiology of ectotherms. When integrated with other thermal biology parameters, they can be used to predict the impacts of climate change on individual fitness and population viability. In this study, we combine holistic measures of thermal physiology and the thermal sensitivity of locomotor performance with environmental temperatures measured at fine scale to estimate the vulnerability to global warming of the endangered Patagonian lizard Phymaturus tenebrosus. Our results indicate that this lizard exhibits its preferred temperatures and maximum locomotor performance at higher temperatures than the mean temperature it currently experiences in its habitat. In addition, it exhibits a low effectiveness of thermoregulation, being a poor thermoregulator. In view of the results obtained, we suggest that the climatic conditions of Patagonia may be advantageous for P. tenebrosus to survive future global warming, since its thermal physiology and locomotor performance may improve under increasing in environmental temperatures in its habitat.

RevDate: 2019-08-20

Borzée A, Andersen D, Groffen J, et al (2019)

Climate change-based models predict range shifts in the distribution of the only Asian plethodontid salamander: Karsenia koreana.

Scientific reports, 9(1):11838 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-48310-1.

Populations see their range fluctuate in relation to environmental variations, including climate change, and their survival is linked to the maintenance of large enough populations and broad enough distributions during these variations. Most amphibian populations are threatened by numerous ecological and anthropogenic variables acting in synergy with climate change. Accumulating basic ecological data such as range enables the development of population and range dynamics, themselves resulting on adequate conservation plans. Karsenia koreana is the only known Asian plethodontic salamander, occurring in a very restricted area only. Based on presence data, we created an ecological model using six bioclimatic factors with low multicollinearity to define the adequate habitat of the species, and we modelled the predicted suitability of the Korean landscape following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) predicting climate change scenarios based on CO2 concentrations in 2050 and 2070. The maximum entropy model for the current distribution produced a landscape suitability considerably wider than the current known distribution. The projected ranges for each RCP indicated marked increases, decreases and shifts in areas with suitable landscapes due to climate change. The lowest RCP prediction resulted in an increase in suitable area, although potentially without connectivity with current populations, while the highest RCP predictions resulted in a decrease. Our results highlight the potential negative impact of climate change, thus requiring updates in conservation plans for K. koreana. The methods used here can be replicated with any land-dwelling species, and our results reflect expected range shifts for most amphibians of the northern hemisphere.

RevDate: 2019-08-21

Korell L, Auge H, Chase JM, et al (2019)

We need more realistic climate change experiments for understanding ecosystems of the future.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Experiments that alter local climate and measure community- and ecosystem-level responses are an important tool for understanding how future ecosystems will respond to climate change. Here, we synthesized data from 76 studies that manipulated climate and measured plant community responses, and find that most climate change experiments do not correspond to model-projected climate scenarios for their respective regions. This mismatch constrains our ability to predict responses of plant biodiversity and ecosystem functions to climate change, and we conclude with suggestions for a way forward. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-08-18

Hao X, Ma H, Hua D, et al (2019)

Response of ecosystem water use efficiency to climate change in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 191(9):561 pii:10.1007/s10661-019-7673-z.

Ecosystem water use efficiency (EWUE) is a popular issue in the comprehensive study of climate change, ecology, and hydrology. Currently, views on the response of EWUE to temperature, precipitation, and drought remain controversial. Based on ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) datasets, both of which were retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) using the Carnegie Ames Stanford approach (CASA) and surface energy balance algorithms for land (SEBAL) models, respectively, this study comprehensively examined the relationship between EWUE and temperature, precipitation, and drought in the Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia. The results showed that EWUE had an obvious temporal change trend in the Tianshan Mountains. The EWUEs of all vegetation types presented an increasing trend in spring and a decreasing trend in autumn. These results led to a phase shift in the annual cycle of EWUE over the years. Compared with 2000 to 2003, from 2012 to 2016, the annual EWUE cycle had advanced by 32 days. Precipitation generally had a negative effect on EWUE, while temperature had an obvious positive effect on EWUE. The EWUE responses to drought for the different vegetation types showed a variety of change trends. With the increase in drought stress, EWUE not only showed a simple upward or downward trend but also showed an upward trend followed by a downward trend or a downward trend followed by an upward trend. EWUE is more sensitive to changing environments than NPP or ET and is more suitable for analyzing ecosystem responses to global change.

RevDate: 2019-08-14

Schiermeier Q (2019)

Eat less meat: UN climate-change report calls for change to human diet.

Nature, 572(7769):291-292.

RevDate: 2019-09-03

Petersen AM, Vincent EM, AL Westerling (2019)

Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians.

Nature communications, 10(1):3502 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-09959-4.

We juxtapose 386 prominent contrarians with 386 expert scientists by tracking their digital footprints across ∼200,000 research publications and ∼100,000 English-language digital and print media articles on climate change. Projecting these individuals across the same backdrop facilitates quantifying disparities in media visibility and scientific authority, and identifying organization patterns within their association networks. Here we show via direct comparison that contrarians are featured in 49% more media articles than scientists. Yet when comparing visibility in mainstream media sources only, we observe just a 1% excess visibility, which objectively demonstrates the crowding out of professional mainstream sources by the proliferation of new media sources, many of which contribute to the production and consumption of climate change disinformation at scale. These results demonstrate why climate scientists should increasingly exert their authority in scientific and public discourse, and why professional journalists and editors should adjust the disproportionate attention given to contrarians.

RevDate: 2019-08-14

Vaught J (2019)

Climate Change, Biodiversity, and Biopreservation.

Biopreservation and biobanking, 17(4):273.

RevDate: 2019-08-28

Hong C, Zhang Q, Zhang Y, et al (2019)

Impacts of climate change on future air quality and human health in China.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(35):17193-17200.

In recent years, air pollution has caused more than 1 million deaths per year in China, making it a major focus of public health efforts. However, future climate change may exacerbate such human health impacts by increasing the frequency and duration of weather conditions that enhance air pollution exposure. Here, we use a combination of climate, air quality, and epidemiological models to assess future air pollution deaths in a changing climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). We find that, assuming pollution emissions and population are held constant at current levels, climate change would adversely affect future air quality for >85% of China's population (∼55% of land area) by the middle of the century, and would increase by 3% and 4% the population-weighted average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone, respectively. As a result, we estimate an additional 12,100 and 8,900 Chinese (95% confidence interval: 10,300 to 13,800 and 2,300 to 14,700, respectively) will die per year from PM2.5 and ozone exposure, respectively. The important underlying climate mechanisms are changes in extreme conditions such as atmospheric stagnation and heat waves (contributing 39% and 6%, respectively, to the increase in mortality). Additionally, greater vulnerability of China's aging population will further increase the estimated deaths from PM2.5 and ozone in 2050 by factors of 1 and 3, respectively. Our results indicate that climate change and more intense extremes are likely to increase the risk of severe pollution events in China. Managing air quality in China in a changing climate will thus become more challenging.

RevDate: 2019-08-15

Harcourt R, Bruine de Bruin W, Dessai S, et al (2019)

Investing in a good pair of wellies: how do non-experts interpret the expert terminology of climate change impacts and adaptation?.

Climatic change, 155(2):257-272.

The UK is already experiencing the impacts of climate change and these are expected to increase in scale and severity in the coming decades. Preparing for impacts by undertaking adaptive actions can potentially reduce the level of harm. In the UK, the government's adaptation program aims to develop a "climate-ready society." However, achieving broad public engagement in adaptation presents a significant communications challenge. Here, we aimed to understand how UK residents use and interpret the terms "climate change impacts" and "climate change adaptation." We conducted a secondary analysis of 22 interviews with UK residents, who were recruited for their diverse climate change views. The interviewees expressed a lack of clarity around expected climate change impacts, which did not prevent them from saying that they were already experiencing the effects of a changing climate. Further, threats to cultural norms and values were perceived as serious and emotionally charged. Adaptation was often conflated with mitigation, and responsibility for adaptation was contested. We discuss the implications of our findings for developing more useful public communication about climate change adaptation.

RevDate: 2019-08-11

Vanli Ö, Ustundag BB, Ahmad I, et al (2019)

Using crop modeling to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wheat in southeastern turkey.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-06061-6 [Epub ahead of print].

The extreme temperatures and uneven distribution of rainfall associated with climate change are expected to affect agricultural productivity and food security. A study was conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on wheat in southeastern regions of Turkey. The CERES-wheat crop simulation model was calibrated and evaluated with data from eight surveyed farms. The four farms were used for calibration and four for evaluation. Climate change scenarios were developed for the middle (2036-2065) and late 21st century (2066-2095) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) for study sites in Islahiye and Nurdagi. Model calibration results showed a good agreement between observed and simulated yield with only a 1 to 11% range of error. The model evaluation results showed good fit between observed and simulated values of all parameters with % error ranged from 0.51 to 13.3%. Future climate change projections showed that maximum temperature (Tmax) will increase between 1.6 °C (RCP4.5) and 2.3 °C (RCP8.5), while minimum temperature (Tmin) will increase between 1.0 °C (RCP4.5) and 1.5 °C (RCP8.5) for mid-century. At the end of the century, Tmax is projected to increase from 2 °C (RCP4.5) to 4 °C (RCP8.5) and Tmin from 1.3 °C (RCP4.5) to 3.1 °C (RCP8.5). Climate change impacts results showed that future rise in temperature will reduce wheat yield by 16.3% in mid-century and 16.8% at the end of the century at Islahiye and for Nurdagi, while 13.0% in mid and 14.4% end of the century. The use of climate and crop modeling technique provides useful information in evaluating the climate change impacts and may assist stakeholders to make decisions to overcome the negative impacts in the near and long term.

RevDate: 2019-09-05

Damien M, K Tougeron (2019)

Prey-predator phenological mismatch under climate change.

Current opinion in insect science, 35:60-68 pii:S2214-5745(18)30189-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Insect phenology is affected by climate change and main responses are driven by phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary changes. Any modification in seasonal activity in one species can have consequences on interacting species, within and among trophic levels. In this overview, we focus on synchronisation mismatches that can occur between tightly interacting species such as hosts and parasitoids or preys and predators. Asynchronies happen because species from different trophic levels can have different response rates to climate change. We show that insect species alter their seasonal activities by modifying their life-cycle through change in voltinism or by altering their development rate. We expect strong bottom-up effects for phenology adjustments rather than top-down effects within food-webs. Extremely complex outcomes arise from such trophic mismatches, which make consequences at the community or ecosystem levels tricky to predict in a climate change context. We explore a set of potential consequences on population dynamics, conservation of species interactions, with a particular focus on the provision of ecosystem services by predators and parasitoids, such as biological pest control.

RevDate: 2019-08-10

Auffret AG, CD Thomas (2019)

Synergistic and antagonistic effects of land use and non-native species on community responses to climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change, land-use change and introductions of non-native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that plant community composition in 996 Swedish landscapes has consistently shifted to reflect the warmer and wetter climate that the region has experienced during the second half of the 20th century. Using community climatic indices, which reflect the average climatic associations of the species within each landscape at each time period, we found that species compositions in 74% of landscapes now have a higher representation of warm-associated species than they did previously, while 84% of landscapes now host more species associated with higher levels of precipitation. In addition to a warmer and wetter climate, there have also been large shifts in land use across the region, while the fraction of non-native species has increased in the majority of landscapes. Climatic warming at the landscape level appeared to favour the colonization of warm-associated species, while also potentially driving losses in cool-associated species. However, the resulting increases in community thermal means were apparently buffered by landscape simplification (reduction in habitat heterogeneity within landscapes) in the form of increased forest cover. Increases in non-native species, which generally originate from warmer climates than Sweden, were a strong driver of community-level warming. In terms of precipitation, both landscape simplification and increases in non-natives appeared to favour species associated with drier climatic conditions, to some extent counteracting the climate-driven shift towards wetter communities. Anthropogenic drivers can act both synergistically and antagonistically to determine trajectories of change in biological communities over time. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple drivers of global change when trying to understand, manage and predict biodiversity in the future.

RevDate: 2019-09-05

Ravindra K, Rattan P, Mor S, et al (2019)

Generalized additive models: Building evidence of air pollution, climate change and human health.

Environment international, 132:104987 pii:S0160-4120(19)30934-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Advances in statistical analysis in the last few decades in the area of linear models enhanced the capability of researchers to study environmental procedures. In relation to general linear models; generalized linear models (GLM) provide greater flexibility in analyzing data related to non-normal distributions. Considering this, the current review explains various applications of the generalized additive model (GAM) to link air pollution, climatic variability with adverse health outcomes. The review examines the application of GAM within the varied field, focusing on the environment and meteorological data. Further, advantages and complications of applying GAM to environmental data are also discussed. Application of GAM allowed for specification for the error pattern and found to be an appropriate fit for the data sets having non-normal distributions; this results in lower and more reliable p-values. Since most environmental data is non-normal, GAM provides a more effective analytical method than traditional linear models. This review highlights on ambient air pollutants, climate change, and health by evaluating studies related to GAM. Additionally, an insight into the application of GAM in R software is provided, which is open source software with the extensive application for any type of dataset.

RevDate: 2019-08-11

Weizman E, O Levy (2019)

The role of chromatin dynamics under global warming response in the symbiotic coral model Aiptasia.

Communications biology, 2:282 pii:543.

Extreme weather events frequency and scale are altered due to climate change. Symbiosis between corals and their endosymbiotic-dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium) is susceptible to these events and can lead to what is known as bleaching. However, there is evidence for coral adaptive plasticity in the role of epigenetic that have acclimated to high-temperature environments. We have implemented ATAC-seq and RNA-seq to study the cnidarian-dinoflagellate model Exaptasia pallida (Aiptasia) and expose the role of chromatin-dynamics in response to thermal-stress. We have identified 1309 genomic sites that change their accessibility in response to thermal changes. Moreover, apo-symbiotic Aiptasia accessible sites were enriched with NFAT, ATF4, GATA3, SOX14, and PAX3 motifs and expressed genes related to immunological pathways. Symbiotic Aiptasia accessible sites were enriched with NKx3-1, HNF4A, IRF4 motifs and expressed genes related to oxidative-stress pathways. Our work opens a new path towards understanding thermal-stress gene regulation in association with gene activity and chromatin-dynamics.

RevDate: 2019-08-08

Cornelissen B, Neumann P, O Schweiger (2019)

Global warming promotes biological invasion of a honey bee pest.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and biological invasions are two major global environmental challenges. Both may interact, e.g. via altered impact and distribution of invasive alien species. Even though invasive species play a key role for compromising the health of honey bees, the impact of climate change on the severity of such species is still unknown. The small hive beetle (SHB, Aethina tumida, Murray) is a parasite of honey bee colonies. It is endemic to Sub-Saharan Africa and has established populations on all continents except Antarctica. Since SHBs pupate in soil, pupation performance is governed foremost by two abiotic factors, soil temperature and moisture, which will be affected by climate change. Here, we investigated SHB invasion risk globally under current and future climate scenarios. We modelled survival and development time during pupation (= pupal performance) in response to soil temperature and soil moisture using published and novel experimental data. Presence data on SHB distribution were used for model validation. We then linked the model with global soil data in order to classify areas (resolution: 10 arcmin; i.e. 18.6 km at the equator) as unsuitable, marginal and suitable for SHB pupation performance. Under the current climate, the results show that many areas globally yet uninvaded are actually suitable, suggesting considerable SHB invasion risk. Future scenarios of global warming project a vehement increase in climatic suitability for SHB and corresponding potential for invasion, especially in the temperate regions of the Northern hemisphere, thereby creating demand for enhanced and adapted mitigation and management. Our analysis shows, for the first time, effects of global warming on a honey bee pest and will help areas at risk to prepare adequately. In conclusion, this is a clear case for global warming promoting biological invasion of a pest species with severe potential to harm important pollinator species globally. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-08-08

Shalby A, Elshemy M, BA Zeidan (2019)

Assessment of climate change impacts on water quality parameters of Lake Burullus, Egypt.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-06105-x [Epub ahead of print].

Egyptian Mediterranean coast hosts five shallow lagoons which play a vital role in the national economy. Lake Burullus is the second largest one that is located in the Nile Delta and is connected to the Mediterranean by a narrow outlet. This lagoon faces various anthropogenic-induced implications that threat its ecosystem and biodiversity. The prime objective of this study is investigating the impacts of future climate change (CC) on its characteristics. A 2-D hydro-ecological modeling for the lagoon was implemented, using MIKE21FM. The proposed model was calibrated and validated against the collected water quality records, for two successive years (2011-2013), at twelve monitoring stations throughout the lagoon. The simulations were executed for various parameters, including water depth, salinity, DO, BOD, and nutrient components. Six simulations from different regional climate models (RCMs) were obtained and examined to extract the most accurate climatic projections for the lagoon coordinates. These climatic estimates cover three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios according to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). A moderate sea level rise (SLR), locally projected offshore from the Nile Delta coast, was obtained. The validated model was forced with the climatic and SLR projections of 2 years representing the mid and long-term future of the twenty-first century. The model results showed that the developed model is an efficient tool to simulate the lagoon characteristics. The results of the modified model showed that CC has the potential to radically alter the physical and chemical structure of Lake Burullus. The results emphasized that the lagoon is expected to be warmer and more saline. The risk of oxygen depletion is firmly predictable with significant spatial differences of DO decreasing. A prolonged residence time is expected, accompanied by an increasing trend of phosphate and chlorophyll-a and a decreasing trend of nitrate. CC impacts on Lake Burullus should be considered in its urgently required management plan.

RevDate: 2019-08-12

Ullah W, Nafees M, Khurshid M, et al (2019)

Assessing farmers' perspectives on climate change for effective farm-level adaptation measures in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 191(9):547 pii:10.1007/s10661-019-7651-5.

Agriculture is considered as the backbone of the economy of Pakistan. However, current changes in climate have been adversely affecting agricultural productivity. In this paper, perceived impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation towards it have been studied in Charsadda district (lowlands) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan through extensive field surveys, involving 116 farm households. Results have revealed that climate change factors including fluctuating temperature, evidence of yearly long droughts, and a steady shift in rainfall patterns have pressured the agriculture sector and livelihoods of the local peasants. The staggering floods of 2010 and 2011 in Pakistan have evidenced severe climatic changes in Pakistan. These countrywide floods have washed fertile soil in the study area that has directly contributed to losses in agricultural yield and increased vector-borne diseases in crops. The local farmers have commonly deployed adaptive measure such as crops diversification, changing fertilizer, and planting shaded trees to minimize the impacts of changes in climate. However, these adjustments measures are perceived as not appropriate for improving farm yield. Therefore, the study suggests that improved understanding of the climate change impacts and knowledge on adapting adequately will lead to no-regret adaptation. It will also help protecting farmer's lives and livelihoods and will boost their resilience towards changing climatic conditions. Graphical abstract .

RevDate: 2019-08-11

Volenzo TE, JO Odiyo (2019)

Linking risk communication and sustainable climate change action: A conceptual framework.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(1):703 pii:JAMBA-11-703.

RevDate: 2019-08-29

Schartup AT, Thackray CP, Qureshi A, et al (2019)

Climate change and overfishing increase neurotoxicant in marine predators.

Nature, 572(7771):648-650.

More than three billion people rely on seafood for nutrition. However, fish are the predominant source of human exposure to methylmercury (MeHg), a potent neurotoxic substance. In the United States, 82% of population-wide exposure to MeHg is from the consumption of marine seafood and almost 40% is from fresh and canned tuna alone1. Around 80% of the inorganic mercury (Hg) that is emitted to the atmosphere from natural and human sources is deposited in the ocean2, where some is converted by microorganisms to MeHg. In predatory fish, environmental MeHg concentrations are amplified by a million times or more. Human exposure to MeHg has been associated with long-term neurocognitive deficits in children that persist into adulthood, with global costs to society that exceed US$20 billion3. The first global treaty on reductions in anthropogenic Hg emissions (the Minamata Convention on Mercury) entered into force in 2017. However, effects of ongoing changes in marine ecosystems on bioaccumulation of MeHg in marine predators that are frequently consumed by humans (for example, tuna, cod and swordfish) have not been considered when setting global policy targets. Here we use more than 30 years of data and ecosystem modelling to show that MeHg concentrations in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) increased by up to 23% between the 1970s and 2000s as a result of dietary shifts initiated by overfishing. Our model also predicts an estimated 56% increase in tissue MeHg concentrations in Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) due to increases in seawater temperature between a low point in 1969 and recent peak levels-which is consistent with 2017 observations. This estimated increase in tissue MeHg exceeds the modelled 22% reduction that was achieved in the late 1990s and 2000s as a result of decreased seawater MeHg concentrations. The recently reported plateau in global anthropogenic Hg emissions4 suggests that ocean warming and fisheries management programmes will be major drivers of future MeHg concentrations in marine predators.

RevDate: 2019-08-08

Khan MD, Thi Vu HH, Lai QT, et al (2019)

Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(15): pii:ijerph16152799.

For decades, researchers have debated whether climate change has an adverse impact on diseases, especially infectious diseases. They have identified a strong relationship between climate variables and vector's growth, mortality rate, reproduction, and spatiotemporal distribution. Epidemiological data further indicates the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases post every single extreme weather event. Based on studies conducted mostly between 1990-2018, three aspects that resemble the impact of climate change impact on diseases are: (a) emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases, (b) impact of extreme weather events, and (c) social upliftment with education and adaptation. This review mainly examines and discusses the impact of climate change based on scientific evidences in published literature. Humans are highly vulnerable to diseases and other post-catastrophic effects of extreme events, as evidenced in literature. It is high time that human beings understand the adverse impacts of climate change and take proper and sustainable control measures. There is also the important requirement for allocation of effective technologies, maintenance of healthy lifestyles, and public education.


RJR Experience and Expertise


Robbins holds BS, MS, and PhD degrees in the life sciences. He served as a tenured faculty member in the Zoology and Biological Science departments at Michigan State University. He is currently exploring the intersection between genomics, microbial ecology, and biodiversity — an area that promises to transform our understanding of the biosphere.


Robbins has extensive experience in college-level education: At MSU he taught introductory biology, genetics, and population genetics. At JHU, he was an instructor for a special course on biological database design. At FHCRC, he team-taught a graduate-level course on the history of genetics. At Bellevue College he taught medical informatics.


Robbins has been involved in science administration at both the federal and the institutional levels. At NSF he was a program officer for database activities in the life sciences, at DOE he was a program officer for information infrastructure in the human genome project. At the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, he served as a vice president for fifteen years.


Robbins has been involved with information technology since writing his first Fortran program as a college student. At NSF he was the first program officer for database activities in the life sciences. At JHU he held an appointment in the CS department and served as director of the informatics core for the Genome Data Base. At the FHCRC he was VP for Information Technology.


While still at Michigan State, Robbins started his first publishing venture, founding a small company that addressed the short-run publishing needs of instructors in very large undergraduate classes. For more than 20 years, Robbins has been operating The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project, a web site dedicated to the digital publishing of critical works in science, especially classical genetics.


Robbins is well-known for his speaking abilities and is often called upon to provide keynote or plenary addresses at international meetings. For example, in July, 2012, he gave a well-received keynote address at the Global Biodiversity Informatics Congress, sponsored by GBIF and held in Copenhagen. The slides from that talk can be seen HERE.


Robbins is a skilled meeting facilitator. He prefers a participatory approach, with part of the meeting involving dynamic breakout groups, created by the participants in real time: (1) individuals propose breakout groups; (2) everyone signs up for one (or more) groups; (3) the groups with the most interested parties then meet, with reports from each group presented and discussed in a subsequent plenary session.


Robbins has been engaged with photography and design since the 1960s, when he worked for a professional photography laboratory. He now prefers digital photography and tools for their precision and reproducibility. He designed his first web site more than 20 years ago and he personally designed and implemented this web site. He engages in graphic design as a hobby.

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Collection of publications by R J Robbins

Reprints and preprints of publications, slide presentations, instructional materials, and data compilations written or prepared by Robert Robbins. Most papers deal with computational biology, genome informatics, using information technology to support biomedical research, and related matters.

Research Gate page for R J Robbins

ResearchGate is a social networking site for scientists and researchers to share papers, ask and answer questions, and find collaborators. According to a study by Nature and an article in Times Higher Education , it is the largest academic social network in terms of active users.

Curriculum Vitae for R J Robbins

short personal version

Curriculum Vitae for R J Robbins

long standard version

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