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28 Feb 2020 at 01:50
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Bibliography on: Climate Change


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Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2020-02-27

May K, D Noel (2019)

School Nurses and Climate Change.

Annual review of nursing research, 38(1):275-286.

Climate change is a serious threat to human health. Nurses recognize vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected by the consequences from climate change, especially the elderly, pregnant women, and children. Children with asthma and chronic health conditions are at the greatest risk for negative health outcomes and are the most important reason for climate advocacy. This descriptive correlational study seeks to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors of school nurses related to the health impacts of climate change. School nurses are in a unique position to address the health impacts of climate change and become fierce advocates of climate justice because of population they serve. School-age and adolescent students are particularly vulnerable to the consequences climate change, which include poor air quality, increasing temperatures, and increasing pollen counts. School nurses were invited to participate in the study via email and provided information about the Nurses Climate Change Challenge. It was the goal of the study to assess these domains in school nurses' and later develop continuing education to support the care and advocacy of students. The results suggest more continuing education on climate change and climate conscious care is needed for school nurses. The current challenge is not only to be more prepared to treat a greater number of illnesses induced by climate change, it is also to maintain expertise and adapt to a changing environment. Nurses must address the impact of climate change on a local level by making changes in practice and engaging in research so that they are prepared with the knowledge, and skills to offer expertise in environmental health and the care of school-age populations.

RevDate: 2020-02-27

Nicholas PK, Breakey S, Tagliareni E, et al (2019)

Advancing a School of Nursing Center for Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Health.

Annual review of nursing research, 38(1):145-158.

This chapter addresses the development and advancement of the Center for Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Health (CCCCJH) in the School of Nursing at the MGH Institute of Health Professions, the first nurse-led center emerged from the overwhelming evidence of climate change and its associated deleterious health consequences. The Center steering committee developed a mission, vision, and core values as well as a logo to guide the first year of initiatives and galvanize the efforts for the future. Workshop and symposium development, implementation, and evaluation are discussed. Future directions and the importance of educational initiatives aimed at expanding nursing and interprofessional knowledge of the intersection of climate and health are discussed.

RevDate: 2020-02-27

Eide P, T Odom-Maryon (2019)

Environmental and Climate Change Initiatives in Nursing Education.

Annual review of nursing research, 38(1):131-144.

Climate change has been labeled the greatest threat to public health and to global health in the 21st century. Addressing climate change has also been reframed as the greatest opportunity for global health in the 21st century, providing a more proactive lens through which to plan and implement actions. Significant climate change impacts to human health are numerous and mounting, including the direct effects of heatwaves, thermal stress and changed frequency or intensity of other extreme weather events. Climate change has been termed a complex public health issue affecting all areas of nursing practice dealing with individuals, families, communities, and the national health arena, and is therefore deserving of inclusion into nursing curricula throughout the entirety of prelicensure coursework. Nursing education programs that include this content will better prepare future nurses to face projected environmental challenges to human health.

RevDate: 2020-02-26

Butler CD, BJ Kefford (2018)

Climate change as a contributor to human conflict.

Nature, 555(7698):587.

RevDate: 2020-02-26

Nardell E, Lederer P, Mishra H, et al (2020)

Cool but dangerous: How climate change is increasing the risk of airborne infections.

Indoor air, 30(2):195-197.

RevDate: 2020-02-26

Cox AR, Robertson RJ, Rendell WB, et al (2020)

Population decline in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) linked to climate change and inclement weather on the breeding ground.

Oecologia pii:10.1007/s00442-020-04618-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Population decline and the threat of extinction are realities currently facing many species. Yet, in most cases, the detailed demographic data necessary to identify causes of population decline are unavailable. Using 43 years (1975-2017) of data from a box-nesting population of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), we identified reduced survival of offspring as a probable demographic cause of population decline. Poor fledging success was associated with increased predation and poor weather conditions during early nestling development. Low juvenile survival and subsequent recruitment was linked to poor weather conditions during the post-fledging period and may also be linked to conditions on the wintering grounds. Regional weather conditions during critical stages of breeding (early nestling and post-fledging) have become progressively worse over the 43-year study period. None of the other factors linked to offspring survival have similarly deteriorated. Overall, our results suggest tree swallows should be added to the growing list of species challenged by climate change, and that other species of aerial insect specialists may face similar impacts of climate change.

RevDate: 2020-02-26

Pawankar R, Wang JY, Wang IJ, et al (2020)

Asia Pacific Association of Allergy Asthma and Clinical Immunology White Paper 2020 on climate change, air pollution, and biodiversity in Asia-Pacific and impact on allergic diseases.

Asia Pacific allergy, 10(1):e11.

Air pollution, climate change, and reduced biodiversity are major threats to human health with detrimental effects on a variety of chronic noncommunicable diseases in particular respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. The extent of air pollution both outdoor and indoor air pollution and climate change including global warming is increasing-to alarming proportions particularly in the developing world especially rapidly industrializing countries worldwide. In recent years, Asia has experienced rapid economic growth and a deteriorating environment and increase in allergic diseases to epidemic proportions. Air pollutant levels in many Asian countries especially in China and India are substantially higher than are those in developed countries. Moreover, industrial, traffic-related, and household biomass combustion, indoor pollutants from chemicals and tobacco are major sources of air pollutants, with increasing burden on respiratory allergies. Here we highlight the major components of outdoor and indoor air pollutants and their impacts on respiratory allergies associated with asthma and allergic rhinitis in the Asia-Pacific region. With Asia-Pacific comprising more than half of the world's population there is an urgent need to increase public awareness, highlight targets for interventions, public advocacy and a call to action to policy makers to implement policy changes towards reducing air pollution with interventions at a population-based level.

RevDate: 2020-02-26

Pandakov PG, Teofilova TM, ND Kodzhabashev (2020)

Status of the burbot (Lota lota L.) in the Lower Danube (Bulgaria) - a species threatened by climate change.

ZooKeys, 910:143-161 pii:47866.

The study provides data on the catch composition, length-weight relationship, age structure, gender structure, growth, maturation, fecundity, distribution and conservation status of the burbot Lota lota (Linnaeus, 1758) in Bulgaria. During six consecutive winters (2008-2014) a total of 395 burbot specimens were caught. The total length and the weight of the specimens ranged from 16 to 51 cm and 29.8 to 1057 g, respectively. Seven age classes were represented (3- to 9-years-old), with 3-, 4-, and 5-years-old most abundant. The maximal life expectancy was estimated as 12 years. Male-female ratio was 1:1. Maturity happens at the age of four at the earliest, valid for both sexes. One-quarter of the fish, older than 5 years were determined as non-reproducing in the particular year. The absolute fecundity varied between 47 462 and 810 236 eggs for females ranging from 5 to 7 years old and from 25.7 to 41.5 cm in length. A dramatic decrease of burbot population was observed in the last two decades. Warming water temperatures of the Danube, together with fragmentation in its tributaries are considered as the major threats affecting the species. Therefore, the burbot in Bulgaria is classified as Endangered.

RevDate: 2020-02-25

Bai X, Dawson RJ, Ürge-Vorsatz D, et al (2018)

Six research priorities for cities and climate change.

Nature, 555(7694):23-25.

RevDate: 2020-02-25

Anonymous (2018)

Don't jump to conclusions about climate change and civil conflict.

Nature, 554(7692):275-276.

RevDate: 2020-02-25

Forster P (2018)

Homing in on a key factor of climate change.

Nature, 553(7688):288-289.

RevDate: 2020-02-25

Hudson J, McQuaid CD, M Rius (2020)

Contemporary climate change hinders hybrid performance of ecologically dominant marine invertebrates.

Journal of evolutionary biology [Epub ahead of print].

Human activities alter patterns of biodiversity, particularly through species extinctions and range contractions. Two of these activities are human mediated transfer of species and contemporary climate change, and both allow previously isolated genotypes to come into contact and hybridise, potentially altering speciation rates. Hybrids have been shown to survive environmental conditions not tolerated by either parent, suggesting that, under some circumstances, hybrids may be able to expand their ranges and perform well under rapidly changing conditions. However, studies assessing how hybridisation influences contemporary range shifts are scarce. We performed crosses on Pyura herdmani and Pyura stolonifera (Chordata, Tunicata), two closely related marine invertebrate species that are ecologically dominant and can hybridise. These sister species live in sympatry along the coasts of southern Africa, but one has a disjunct distribution that includes northern hemisphere sites. We experimentally assessed the performance of hybrid and parental crosses using different temperature regimes, including temperatures predicted under future climate change scenarios. We found that hybrids showed lower success than parental crosses at the experimental temperatures, suggesting that hybrids are unlikely to expand their ranges to new environments. In turn, we found that the more widespread species performed better at a wide array of temperatures, indicating that this parental species may cope better with future conditions. This study illustrates how offspring fitness may provide key insights to predict range expansions, and how contemporary climate change may mediate both the ability of hybrids to expand their ranges and the occurrence of speciation as a result of hybridisation.

RevDate: 2020-02-25

P J V, Ravichandran M, Subeesh MP, et al (2020)

Global warming hiatus contributed weakening of the Mascarene High in the Southern Indian Ocean.

Scientific reports, 10(1):3255 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-59964-7.

The Mascarene High (MH) is a semi-permanent subtropical high-pressure zone in the South Indian Ocean. Apart from its large influence on African and Australian weather patterns, it also helps in driving the inter-hemispheric circulation between the Indian Ocean in the south and subcontinental landmass in the north. Using observations and reanalysis products, this study for the first time investigates recent warming trend observed in the MH region during the Global Warming Hiatus (GWH) period (1998-2016). Significant positive trends are observed in sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and oceanic heat content (OHC) during this period in the MH region. Mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals the dominant role of heat advection in the observed warming trend. During the GWH period, stronger zonal currents advect the warm waters from the Western Pacific (WP) towards the MH region via the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). This warming in the MH reduces the sea level pressure therein and establishes a weak pressure gradient between the MH and the northern hemisphere landmass. This in-turn weakens the cross-equatorial winds in the western Indian Ocean.

RevDate: 2020-02-25

Han Y, An Z, Marlon JR, et al (2020)

Asian inland wildfires driven by glacial-interglacial climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1822035117 [Epub ahead of print].

Wildfire can influence climate directly and indirectly, but little is known about the relationships between wildfire and climate during the Quaternary, especially how wildfire patterns varied over glacial-interglacial cycles. Here, we present a high-resolution soot record from the Chinese Loess Plateau; this is a record of large-scale, high-intensity fires over the past 2.6 My. We observed a unique and distinct glacial-interglacial cyclicity of soot over the entire Quaternary Period synchronous with marine δ18O and dust records, which suggests that ice-volume-modulated aridity controlled wildfire occurrences, soot production, and dust fluxes in central Asia. The high-intensity fires were also found to be anticorrelated with global atmospheric CO2 records over the past eight glacial-interglacial cycles, implying a possible connection between the fires, dust, and climate mediated through the iron cycle. The significance of this hypothetical connection remains to be determined, but the relationships revealed in this study hint at the potential importance of wildfire for the global climate system.

RevDate: 2020-02-25

Diadin D, Y Vystavna (2020)

Long-term meteorological data and isotopic composition in precipitation, surface water and groundwater revealed hydrologic sensitivity to climate change in East Ukraine.

Isotopes in environmental and health studies [Epub ahead of print].

Our study focused on the incorporation of stable isotope ratios in water in climatic and hydrological observations to understand local hydroclimatic processes and determine basic hydrological sensitivity to climate change in East Ukraine. Long-term meteorological data from two stations at Kharkiv and Izyum showed that air temperature was significantly increased only for the cold period (November-April), while precipitation amount increased during all seasons. Applying two-component mixing model with stable isotope ratios in water, we determined that surface water in both regions was dominantly recharged by the cold precipitation. The highest share of cold precipitation contribution (∼79 %) was found in the river with the shortest water transit time. The isotopic signature of groundwater also indicated that water resources were mainly recharged during the cold period. Our findings reveal that basic hydrological sensitivity of the transboundary (Ukraine/Russian Federation) Seversky Donets River basin relates to hydroclimate changes mainly observed in November-April. We suggest that climate changes can influence surface water and groundwater but also the overall regional water availability that is highly dependent on the cold precipitation in these regions.

RevDate: 2020-02-25

Paramsothy M (2020)

Alleviating Climate Change and Pollution with Nanomaterials.

Nanomaterials (Basel, Switzerland), 10(2): pii:nano10020358.

Nanoparticles can be utilized to extract carbon from air, dyes from water and sludge from waste, and are gradually emerging as useful for tackling threats to our planet's health [...].

RevDate: 2020-02-24

Adedeji AR, Zaini F, Mathew S, et al (2020)

Sustainable energy towards air pollution and climate change mitigation.

Journal of environmental management, 260:109978.

This is an evidence from a high-income economy in Southeast Asia and a support for scientific planning of the energy sector in ensuring air pollution and climate change mitigation. A comparative analysis of the energy options for electricity generation in the nation was made considering availability, cost and greenhouse gases emission - CO2, N2O and CH4, using a two-stage method comprising multi-objective optimization and TOPSIS. The renewable (RE) and non-renewable energy (NRE) options available were assessed through the lifecycle approach to determine the lifecycle greenhouse gas emission (LCGHG) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) per MWh of electricity. Considering historical electricity consumption, annual GDP and population growth from 1965, energy consumption for the year 2035 was forecasted using support vector machine regressor in Weka. Future plans in energy diversification pathways were examined through various scenario multi-objective optimizations with a constraint on resource availability and energy target using genetic algorithm in MATLAB. The outputs were ranked using TOPSIS method. Results showed that greenhouse gases emission could be reduced by 10.3 percent compared to business as usual scenario while the energy mix could attain 10 percent renewable energy in the grid at a relatively lower generation cost.

RevDate: 2020-02-23

Friel S (2020)

Climate change and the people's health: the need to exit the consumptagenic system.

Lancet (London, England) pii:S0140-6736(20)30257-9 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-02-19

Huber I, Potapova K, Ammosova E, et al (2020)

Symposium report: emerging threats for human health - impact of socioeconomic and climate change on zooanthroponosis in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russia.

International journal of circumpolar health, 79(1):1715698.

Population growth, socio-cultural and economic changes as well as technological progress have an immediate impact on the environment and human health in particular. Our steadily rising needs of resources increase the pressure on the environment and narrow down untainted habitats for plants and wild animals. Balance and resilience of ecosystems are further threatened by climate change, as temperature and seasonal shifts increase the pressure for all species to find successful survival strategies. Arctic and subarctic regions are especially vulnerable to climate change, as thawing of permafrost significantly transforms soil structures, vegetation and habitats. With rising temperature, the risk of zoonotic diseases in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) has also increased. As vegetation periods prolong and habitats broaden, zoonotic pathogens and their vectors find more favourable living conditions. Moreover, permafrost degradation may expose historic burial grounds and allow for reviving the vectors of deadly infections from the past. To assess the current state of knowledge and emerging risks in the light of the "One Health" concept, a German-Russian Symposium took place on 13 August 2018 in Yakutsk, Russian Federation. This symposium report presents the main findings generated from presentations and discussions.

RevDate: 2020-01-22
CmpDate: 2020-01-22

Jiang Q, Qi Z, Xue L, et al (2020)

Assessing climate change impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, N losses in drainage and crop production in a subsurface drained field.

The Science of the total environment, 705:135969.

Future climate change-driven alterations in precipitation patterns, increases in temperature, and rises in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]atm) are expected to alter agricultural productivity and environmental quality, while high latitude countries like Canada are likely to face more challenges from global climate change. However, potential climate change impact on GHG emissions from tile-drained fields is poorly documented. Accordingly, climate change impacts on GHG emissions, N losses to drainage and crop production in a subsurface-drained field in Southern Quebec, Canada were assessed using calibrated and validated RZWQM2 model. The RZWQM2 model was run for a historical period (1971-2000) and for a future period (2038 to 2070) using data generated from 11 different GCM-RCMs (global climate models coupled with regional climate models). Under the projected warmer and higher rainfall conditions mean drainage flow was predicted to increase by 17%, and the N losses through subsurface drains increase by 47%. Despite the negative effect of warming temperature on crop yield, soybean yield was predicted to increase by 31% due to increased photosynthesis rates and improved crop water use efficiency (WUE) under elevated [CO2]atm, while corn yield was reduced by 7% even with elevated [CO2]atm because of a shorter life cycle from seedling to maturity resulted from higher temperature. The N2O emissions would be enhanced by 21% due to greater denitrification and mineralization, while CO2 emissions would increase by 16% because of more crop biomass accumulation, higher crop residue decomposition, and greater soil microbial activities. Soil organic carbon storage was predicted to decrease 22% faster in the future, which would result in higher global warming potential in turn. This study demonstrates the potential of exacerbating GHG emissions and water quality problems and reduced corn yield under climate change impact in subsurface drained fields in southern Quebec.

RevDate: 2020-02-21

Anonymous (2017)

How the early bird combats climate change.

Nature, 551(7681):417.

RevDate: 2020-02-20

Anonymous (2017)

Coral predators get a boost from climate change.

Nature, 546(7658):330.

RevDate: 2020-02-20

Anonymous (2017)

Global warming could shift rainfall patterns.

Nature, 546(7657):189.

RevDate: 2020-02-20

Anonymous (2017)

Global warming 'hiatus' claims are overblown.

Nature, 545(7652):9.

RevDate: 2020-02-22

Krasna H, Czabanowska K, Jiang S, et al (2020)

The Future of Careers at the Intersection of Climate Change and Public Health: What Can Job Postings and an Employer Survey Tell Us?.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(4): pii:ijerph17041310.

Climate change is acknowledged to be a major risk to public health. Skills and competencies related to climate change are becoming a part of the curriculum at schools of public health and are now a competency required by schools in Europe and Australia. However, it is unclear whether graduates of public health programs focusing on climate change are in demand in the current job market. The authors analyzed current job postings, 16 years worth of job postings on a public health job board, and survey responses from prospective employers. The current job market appears small but there is evidence from job postings that it may be growing, and 91.7% of survey respondents believe the need for public health professionals with training in climate change may grow in the next 5-10 years. Current employers value skills/competencies such as the knowledge of climate mitigation/adaptation, climate-health justice, direct/indirect and downstream effects of climate on health, health impact assessment, risk assessment, pollution-health consequences and causes, Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping, communication/writing, finance/economics, policy analysis, systems thinking, and interdisciplinary understanding. Ensuring that competencies align with current and future needs is a key aspect of curriculum development. At the same time, we recognize that while we attempt to predict future workforce needs with historical data or surveys, the disruptive reality created by climate change cannot be modeled from prior trends, and we must therefore adopt new paradigms of education for the emerging future.

RevDate: 2020-02-21

Leisner CP (2020)

Review: Climate change impacts on food security- focus on perennial cropping systems and nutritional value.

Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology, 293:110412.

Anthropogenic increases in fossil fuel emissions have been a primary driver of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO2]) and other greenhouse gases resulting in warmer temperatures, alterations in precipitation patterns, and increased occurrence of extreme weather events in terrestrial areas across the globe. In agricultural growing regions, alterations in climate can challenge plant productivity in ways that impact the ability of the world to sustain adequate food production for a growing and increasingly affluent population with shifting access to affordable and nutritious food. While the knowledge gap that exists regarding potential climate change impacts is large across agriculture, it is especially large in specialty cropping systems. This includes fruit and vegetable crops, and perennial cropping systems which also contribute (along with row crops) to our global diet. In order to obtain a comprehensive view of the true impact of climate change on our global food supply, we must expand our narrow focus from improving yield and plant productivity to include the impact of climate change on the nutritional value of these crops. In order to address these questions, we need a multi-faceted approach that integrates physiology and genomics tools and conducts comprehensive experiments under realistic depictions of future projected climate. This review describes gaps in our knowledge in relation to these responses, and future questions and actions that are needed to develop a sustainable future food supply in light of global climate change.

RevDate: 2020-02-21

Khan T, TM Conway (2020)

Vulnerability of Common Urban Forest Species to Projected Climate Change and Practitioners Perceptions and Responses.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-020-01270-z [Epub ahead of print].

While urban forests are often identified as part of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, less attention has been given to vulnerabilities urban trees may have to a changing climate and practitioners' response to those vulnerabilities. Yet, current planting and management decisions will impact how urban forests fare under future climatic conditions. We explore a case study of Mississauga (Ontario, Canada) to examine (1) if common urban forest species are vulnerable to two scenarios of projected climate change, (2) the experiences and responses of urban forestry practitioners to climate change, and (3) whether urban forestry practitioners' experience and practice are aligned with the vulnerability assessment. Vulnerabilities of 27 common species were examined based on 2071-2100 regional climate projections. Interviews were then conducted with practitioners working in the public and private sectors. The results suggest that the majority of examined species will be vulnerable to multiple conditions associated with projected climate. Practitioners all perceive recent changes in climate and extreme weather patterns, but do not prioritize future climate conditions in their species selection decisions. Moreover, they expressed uncertainty about how to make species selection decisions in light of climate change. Given the predicted vulnerabilities, alternative species need to be considered or more management resources (e.g., for watering) will be required to maintain the current composition. However, the lack of focus on future conditions by practitioners raises concerns, while also highlighting the need for more information about appropriate management strategies.

RevDate: 2020-02-21

Dean JF (2020)

Old methane and modern climate change.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 367(6480):846-848.

RevDate: 2020-02-21

Liu X (2020)

Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(4): pii:ijerph17041278.

Heat stress would be intensified under global warming and become a key issue of occupational health for labor force working outdoors. The changes in labor force would affect regional socioeconomic development. So far, changes in labor force due to heat stress are not well documented in China. In this study, heat stress based on wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), which combines the thermal effects on the human body of both temperature and humidity, is projected for the near future (2021-2050) and the end of the century (2071-2099). Changes in labor capacity are then estimated for heavy and light work based on the relationships between labor capacity and the WBGT. Low and high emission scenarios, namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, are considered for the future projections in the hottest two months (July and August) in China. Results suggest that the WBGT would increase by more than 3-5 °C by the end of the century. The labor capacity would decrease by more than 40% for both heavy and light work in considerable areas such as South and East China, where there is a large population and developed economy. This indicates that labor force would reduce significantly due to intensified heat stress. This study calls for special attention to the impact of heat stress on occupational health and the labor force in China in the future.

RevDate: 2020-02-20

Lee CH, Lin SH, Kao CL, et al (2020)

Impact of climate change on disaster events in metropolitan cities -trend of disasters reported by Taiwan national medical response and preparedness system.

Environmental research, 183:109186 pii:S0013-9351(20)30078-5 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Taiwan is geographically located in a zone that is vulnerable to earthquakes, typhoons, floods, and landslide hazards and has experienced various disasters. Six Regional Emergency Medical Operation Centers (REMOCs) are integrated and administered by the Ministry of Health and Welfare (MOHW) to be responsible for emergency situations during disastrous events, such as the emission of chemical toxicants, traffic accidents, industrial materials containment, and typhoons.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze events reported by the six REMOCs during the 2014 to 2018 for the government policy reference.

METHODS: Data were collected from injured and death toll reports provided by local designated hospitals in the emergency medical reporting system. Disaster events were categorized into three categories: natural disaster (NDs), disasters associated with technology (DTs), and disasters associated with security/violence/others (DSVOs). The three categories were further subdivided into sub-categories. Variables considered for trend analyses included the number of wounded and deaths, event characteristics, date/time, and triage. The frequency of disaster events among the six REMOCs was compared using the chi-square test. We used the global information system (GIS) to describe the distribution of events in Taiwan metropolitan cities. The α-level was set at 0.05.

RESULTS: Of 580 events during the study period, the distribution of disaster characteristics in the jurisdictions of the six REMOCs were different. The majority of disaster events were DTs (64.5%), followed by NDs (24.5%) and DSVOs (11.0%). Events for the three disaster categories in the six REMOCs were different (χ2-test, p < 0.001). Furthermore, for the Taipei branch (Northern Taiwan), other NDs, especially heatwaves and cold spells, were most reported in New Taipei City (92.2%) and showed an increasing annual trend; for the Kaohsiung branch (Southern Taiwan), DT events were the most reported, especially in Kaohsiung City; and for the Taichung branch (Central Taiwan), DSVOs were the most reported, especially in Taichung City.

CONCLUSION: Our data revealed that extreme weather precautions reported in the Taipei branch were increasing. Disaster characteristics were different in each metropolitan city. Upgrading the ability to respond to natural disasters is ineluctable.

RevDate: 2020-02-20

Nachman G, H Skovgård (2020)

Modeling the Influence of Ambient Temperature on the Interactions Between the Stable Fly (Diptera: Muscidae) and Its Natural Enemy Spalangia cameroni (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) to Assess Consequences of Climate Change.

Environmental entomology pii:5741758 [Epub ahead of print].

A simulation model was used to predict how temperature influences biological control of stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans (L.)) by the pupal parasitoid Spalangia cameroni. Temperature, which was either constant or fluctuated due to seasonal variation and/or environmental stochasticity, was modeled as a first order autocorrelation process. The simulations showed that stable flies could tolerate a wider temperature interval than expected from their thermal performance curve (TPC). This was attributed to the fact that immature flies develop in manure, which protects them against low air temperatures. In contrast, the parasitoids were found to have a narrower thermal tolerance range than expected from their TPC. This was attributed to the temperature-dependent functional response of S. cameroni, which was a limiting factor for the parasitoid's development and survival when host densities were low at suboptimal temperatures. The effects of seasonal variation on critical thermal limits were studied by means of thermal performance diagrams (TPDs). Fluctuating temperatures narrowed the thermal tolerance range of both species. At constant temperatures, the simulations showed that the optimal temperature for using S. cameroni in control of stable flies is ~20°C and that the parasitoid can persist in environments with yearly average temperatures between 18 and 29°C. However, if temperature variation was taken into consideration, it changed both the optimal temperature and the temperature interval at which biological control will be possible. This indicates that climate change causing increasing temperatures compounded with greater fluctuations may have serious consequences for biological control of pests.

RevDate: 2020-02-20

PLOS ONE Staff (2020)

Correction: Coupling environment and physiology to predict effects of climate change on the taxonomic and functional diversity of fish assemblages in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.

PloS one, 15(2):e0229679 pii:PONE-D-20-04201.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0225128.].

RevDate: 2020-02-20

Walker RK, Pereira-Morales S, Kerr R, et al (2020)

Climate Change Should Be on Every Nursing Research Agenda.

Oncology nursing forum, 47(2):135-144.

Human-caused climate change is a global emergency, and its harms are predicted to increase exponentially in the coming years, particularly if unsustainable practices continue unmitigated. Adverse effects of climate change on communities affected by or at risk for cancer, such as frail older adults, are already measurable and deadly. If nurse scientists continue to ignore these realities, more people are likely to suffer and die as a result. The purpose of this critical reflection is to discuss the vital necessity of including climate change in the research agenda of the Oncology Nursing Society and all nursing science. Using an approach grounded in critical theory and design justice, the authors provide specific suggestions for the incorporation of scientific considerations and nursing measures related to climate change into oncology nursing science.

RevDate: 2020-02-20

Rauw WM, Rydhmer L, Kyriazakis I, et al (2020)

Prospects for sustainability of pig production in relation to climate change and novel feed resources.

Journal of the science of food and agriculture [Epub ahead of print].

Pig production systems provide multiple benefits to humans. However, the global increase in meat consumption has profound consequences for our earth. This perspective describes two alternative scenarios for improving the sustainability of future pig production systems. The first scenario is a high input-high output system based on sustainable intensification, maximizing animal protein production efficiency on a limited land surface while minimizing environmental impacts. The second scenario is a reduced input-reduced output system based on selecting animals that are more robust to climate change and are better adapted to transform low quality feed (local feeds, feedstuff co-products, feed waste) into meat. However, in contrast to the first scenario, the latter scenario results in reduced predicted yields, reduced production efficiency, and possibly increased costs to the consumer. National evaluation of availability of local feed and feedstuff-coproduct alternatives, determination of limits to feed sourced from international markets, available land for crop and livestock production, desired production levels, and willingness to politically enforce policies through subsidies and/or penalties are some of the considerations to combine these two scenarios. Given future novel sustainable alternatives to livestock animal protein, it may become reasonable to move towards an added general premium price on 'protein from livestock animals' to the benefit of promoting higher incomes to farmers while covering the extra costs of, politically enforced, welfare of livestock animals in sustainable production systems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2020-02-20

Huang J, H Hao (2020)

Effects of climate change and crop planting structure on the abundance of cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).

Ecology and evolution, 10(3):1324-1338 pii:ECE35986.

The interactions between plants and insects play an important role in ecosystems. Climate change and cropping patterns can affect herbivorous pest insect dynamics. Understanding the reasons for population fluctuations can help improve integrated pest management strategies. Here, a 25-year dataset on climate, cropping planting structure, and the population dynamics of cotton bollworms (Helicoverpa armigera) from Bachu County, south Xinjiang, China, was analyzed to assess the effects of changes in climate and crop planting structure on the population dynamics of H. armigera. The three generations of H. armigera showed increasing trends in population size with climate warming, especially in the third generation. The relative abundances of the first and second generations decreased, but that of the third generation increased. Rising temperature and precipitation produced different impacts on the development of different generations. The population numbers of H. armigera increased with the increase in the non-Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton-planted area. Asynchrony of abrupt changes existed among climate change, crop flowering dates, and the phenology of H. armigera moths. The asynchronous responses in crop flowering dates and phenology of H. armigera to climate warming would expand in the future. The primary factors affecting the first, second, and third generations of moths were Tmean in June, the last appearance date of the second generation of moths, and the duration of the third generation of moths, respectively. To reduce the harm to crops caused by H. armigera, Bt cotton should be widely planted.

RevDate: 2020-02-20

Mainali K, Shrestha BB, Sharma RK, et al (2020)

Contrasting responses to climate change at Himalayan treelines revealed by population demographics of two dominant species.

Ecology and evolution, 10(3):1209-1222 pii:ECE35968.

Alpine treelines are expected to shift upward due to recent climate change. However, interpretation of changes in montane systems has been problematic because effects of climate change are frequently confounded with those of land use changes. The eastern Himalaya, particularly Langtang National Park, Central Nepal, has been relatively undisturbed for centuries and thus presents an opportunity for studying climate change impacts on alpine treeline uncontaminated by potential confounding factors.We studied two dominant species, Abies spectabilis (AS) and Rhododendron campanulatum (RC), above and below the treeline on two mountains. We constructed 13 transects, each spanning up to 400 m in elevation, in which we recorded height and state (dead or alive) of all trees, as well as slope, aspect, canopy density, and measures of anthropogenic and animal disturbance.All size classes of RC plants had lower mortality above treeline than below it, and young RC plants (<2 m tall) were at higher density above treeline than below. AS shows little evidence of a position change from the historic treeline, with a sudden extreme drop in density above treeline compared to below. Recruitment, as measured by size-class distribution, was greater above treeline than below for both species but AS is confined to ~25 m above treeline whereas RC is luxuriantly growing up to 200 m above treeline. Synthesis. Evidence suggests that the elevational limits of RC have shifted upward both because (a) young plants above treeline benefited from facilitation of recruitment by surrounding vegetation, allowing upward expansion of recruitment, and (b) temperature amelioration to mature plants increased adult survival. We predict that the current pure stand of RC growing above treeline will be colonized by AS that will, in turn, outshade and eventually relegate RC to be a minor component of the community, as is the current situation below the treeline.

RevDate: 2020-02-19

Grossi G, Goglio P, Vitali A, et al (2019)

Livestock and climate change: impact of livestock on climate and mitigation strategies.

Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture, 9(1):69-76 pii:vfy034.

RevDate: 2020-02-19

Wolski P, Lobell D, Stone D, et al (2020)

On the role of anthropogenic climate change in the emerging food crisis in Southern Africa in the 2019-2020 growing season.

The failure of early (October-December) rains, amidst a multi-year drought, has raised concerns of a potential emerging food security crisis in parts of southern Africa, with an estimated 45 million people at risk of severe food insecurity (WFP, 2019). Here we evaluate recent climate data to assess the possible role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) in the emerging crisis in this region spanning southern Mozambique, Zimbabwe and central and western Zambia.

RevDate: 2020-02-19

Cassandro M (2020)

Animal breeding and climate change, mitigation and adaptation.

Journal of animal breeding and genetics = Zeitschrift fur Tierzuchtung und Zuchtungsbiologie, 137(2):121-122.

RevDate: 2020-02-19

Das Sarkar S, Sarkar UK, Lianthuamluaia L, et al (2020)

Pattern of the state of eutrophication in the floodplain wetlands of eastern India in context of climate change: a comparative evaluation of 27 wetlands.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 192(3):183 pii:10.1007/s10661-020-8114-8.

The floodplain wetlands in different regional settings vary with time and space in terms of function and geomorphological diversity. In recent decades, these eco-sensitive waterbodies have been exposed to a wide range of anthropogenic threats and climatic changes. Therefore, assessment of these ecological and environmental threats is prerequisite to understand the state of ecosystem and to develop a sustainable management strategy for conservation of wetland biodiversity and fisheries enhancement. This paper discusses the region-specific pattern of trophic state index (TSI) of the 27 floodplain wetlands in West Bengal, India. Carlson TSI and Lamparelli TSI methods were used to determine a better approach based on historical and continuous dataset and to delineate the interrelationship among historical climatic variability for sustainable management of the resources. The study revealed that agro-climatic divisions do not unveil any significant impact on the TSI calculated using Carlson TSI as well as Lamparelli TSI method. The TSI scores for the two methods were significantly different (p < 0.01) for different zones based on wetland habitat types. The TSI scores revealed most of the wetlands to be in mesotrophic state. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that TSI scores were having similar pattern of variation with rainfall and water temperature. The present study also conveys fundamental information on ecological status based on the trophic state, which will aid to develop region-specific strategies for sustainable fisheries enhancement.

RevDate: 2020-02-19

Wu J (2020)

Risk and Uncertainty of Losing Suitable Habitat Areas Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study for 109 Gymnosperm Species in China.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-020-01262-z [Epub ahead of print].

Taking 109 gymnosperm species in China as a case, the uncertainty and risk of losing habitat areas of gymnosperm species under future climate conditions were investigated via representative concentration pathways climate change scenarios, fuzzy set classifications and Monte Carlo techniques. Under nonrandom climate change scenarios, the richness of 109 species increased in the partial locations of northwestern and northeastern China and declined in the partial locations of eastern and central and southeastern China; the numbers of species that losing <20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80%, and over 80% of their current habitat areas were ~33-49, 36-40, 11-24, 7-9, and 2-8, respectively; ~99-105 species occupied over 80% of their total suitable areas and ~4-9 species occupied 60-80% their total suitable areas. Under random climate change scenarios, the number of species that losing various level of the habitat areas declined with enhancing probability; with a probabilities of over 0.6, the numbers of species that losing <20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80% and over 80% of their current habitat areas were ~19-28, 3-19, 0-3, 1-2, and 9-14, respectively, and the numbers of species that occupying ~20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80%, and over 80% of their total suitable areas were ~9-14, 4-11, 2-6, 1-3, and 34-45, respectively. Approximately 41% of 109 species will face extinction risks from climate change; the losing habitat areas in future climate condition will cause the varying of coniferous forest composition and the losing of ecosystem service related to the species; the uncertainty of losing distribution areas for species should not be ignored.

RevDate: 2020-02-19

Zappa G, Ceppi P, TG Shepherd (2020)

Time-evolving sea-surface warming patterns modulate the climate change response of subtropical precipitation over land.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1911015117 [Epub ahead of print].

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affect precipitation worldwide. The response is commonly described by two timescales linked to different processes: a rapid adjustment to radiative forcing, followed by a slower response to surface warming. However, additional timescales exist in the surface-warming response, tied to the time evolution of the sea-surface-temperature (SST) response. Here, we show that in climate model projections, the rapid adjustment and surface mean warming are insufficient to explain the time evolution of the hydro-climate response in three key Mediterranean-like areas-namely, California, Chile, and the Mediterranean. The time evolution of those responses critically depends on distinct shifts in the regional atmospheric circulation associated with the existence of distinct fast and slow SST warming patterns. As a result, Mediterranean and Chilean drying are in quasiequilibrium with GHG concentrations, meaning that the drying will not continue after GHG concentrations are stabilized, whereas California wetting will largely emerge only after GHG concentrations are stabilized. The rapid adjustment contributes to a reduction in precipitation, but has a limited impact on the balance between precipitation and evaporation. In these Mediterranean-like regions, future hydro-climate-related impacts will be substantially modulated by the time evolution of the pattern of SST warming that is realized in the real world.

RevDate: 2020-02-19

Linares C, Díaz J, Negev M, et al (2020)

Impacts of climate change on the public health of the Mediterranean Basin population - Current situation, projections, preparedness and adaptation.

Environmental research, 182:109107.

The Mediterranean Basin is undergoing a warming trend with longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns and a reduction in rainfall amounts. In this unique populated region, which is characterized by significant gaps in the socio-economic levels particularly between the North (Europe) and South (Africa), parallel with population growth and migration, increased water demand and forest fires risk - the vulnerability of the Mediterranean population to human health risks increases significantly. Indeed, climatic changes impact the health of the Mediterranean population directly through extreme heat, drought or storms, or indirectly by changes in water availability, food provision and quality, air pollution and other stressors. The main health effects are related to extreme weather events (including extreme temperatures and floods), changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases and changes in environmental and social conditions. The poorer countries, particularly in North Africa and the Levant, are at highest risk. Climate change affects the vulnerable sectors of the region, including an increasingly older population, with a larger percentage of those with chronic diseases, as well as poor people, which are therefore more susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. For those populations, a better surveillance and control systems are especially needed. In view of the climatic projections and the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries, climate change mitigation and adaptation become ever more imperative. It is important that prevention Health Action Plans will be implemented, particularly in those countries that currently have no prevention plans. Most adaptation measures are "win-win situation" from a health perspective, including reducing air pollution or providing shading solutions. Additionally, Mediterranean countries need to enhance cross-border collaboration, as adaptation to many of the health risks requires collaboration across borders and also across the different parts of the basin.

RevDate: 2020-02-19

Li Z, Li Q, Wang J, et al (2020)

Impacts of projected climate change on runoff in upper reach of Heihe River basin using climate elasticity method and GCMs.

The Science of the total environment, 716:137072 pii:S0048-9697(20)30582-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Understanding the impacts of climate change on runoff is of great importance for water resource assessments and adaptation strategy developments especially for the areas where scare and unevenly distributed water are available. Compared to the hydrological modelling method, the climate elasticity method is more flexible with the advantage of using few data in addressing the issue of investigating the effects of climate change on runoff. This study employed Budyko-based climate elasticity method, combined with temperature-based Blaney-Criddle equation, to obtain the elasticities of runoff to two major climate variables, and then applied this methodology to the upper reach of Heihe River basin, China. The runoff elasticity to precipitation in the study area was estimated to be 0.56-0.57, and the elasticity to temperature was -0.017 to -0.018. Precipitation increases showed a positive effect to runoff increases, and temperature increases showed a negative effect. Performances of 18 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were assessed and the best GCMs were selected based on the entropy weighted TOPSIS approach. CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, CCSM4, and CanESM2 were ranked the first three with the best performances in simulating the observed precipitation and temperature over the study area. Climate projections from the above three GCMs showed that precipitation increased by 10% and 12% on average during the two periods of 2021-2050 and 2051-2080, producing 5.6% and 6.7% decreases in the projected long-term runoff compared to those in baseline period (1961-1990). Temperatures were projected to be increased by 2.0 °C and 2.9 °C for the two periods, resulting in the future long-term runoff decreased by nearly 2.0% and 2.9%, respectively.

RevDate: 2020-02-18

Gottfried I, Gottfried T, Lesiński G, et al (2020)

Long-term changes in winter abundance of the barbastelle Barbastella barbastellus in Poland and the climate change - Are current monitoring schemes still reliable for cryophilic bat species?.

PloS one, 15(2):e0227912 pii:PONE-D-19-15508.

Warmer winters may lead to changes in the hibernation behaviour of bats, such as the barbastelle Barbastella barbastellus, which prefers to hibernate at low temperatures. The species is also known for its large annual fluctuations in the number of wintering individuals, so inference about population trends should be based on long-term data. Prior to 2005, analyses indicated stable or even increasing barbastelle population in Poland. We analysed the results of 13 winter bat counts (2005-2017) of the species from 15 of the largest hibernacula, and additional site of 47 small bunkers, in Poland. The total number of wintering individuals remained stable during the study period, because the barbastelle is not a long-distance migrant, this likely reflects the national population trend. On the basis of mean winter air temperatures we divided the country into four thermal regions. Analyses of barbastelle abundance in hibernacula in the four regions revealed a 4.8% annual mean increase in numbers in the coldest region, where mean winter temperatures were below -2°C, annual mean declines of 3.3% and 3.1% in two warmer regions of western Poland, but no trend in the region of intermediate mean winter temperatures of between -1°C and -2°C. Overall, there was a significant, but weak, negative correlation between the abundance of hibernating individuals and the mean winter temperature. On the other hand, the number of individuals hibernating in small bunkers increased, even though the site was located in one of the warm regions. The results indicate a warming climate will likely reduce the use of large, well-insulated winter roosts by species that prefer colder conditions-and that this is already happening. For forest-dwelling bats, such as the barbastelle, for which monitoring schemes are primarily based on winter surveys of large hibernacula, estimations of population trends may consequently become less reliable.

RevDate: 2020-02-18

Lindberg RT, S Collins (2020)

Quality-quantity trade-offs drive functional trait evolution in a model microalgal 'climate change winner'.

Ecology letters [Epub ahead of print].

Phytoplankton are the unicellular photosynthetic microbes that form the base of aquatic ecosystems, and their responses to global change will impact everything from food web dynamics to global nutrient cycles. Some taxa respond to environmental change by increasing population growth rates in the short-term and are projected to increase in frequency over decades. To gain insight into how these projected 'climate change winners' evolve, we grew populations of microalgae in ameliorated environments for several hundred generations. Most populations evolved to allocate a smaller proportion of carbon to growth while increasing their ability to tolerate and metabolise reactive oxygen species (ROS). This trade-off drives the evolution of traits that underlie the ecological and biogeochemical roles of phytoplankton. This offers evolutionary and a metabolic frameworks for understanding trait evolution in projected 'climate change winners' and suggests that short-term population booms have the potential to be dampened or reversed when environmental amelioration persists.

RevDate: 2020-02-17

Ajanovic S, Valente M, Varo R, et al (2020)

Climate Change and the Future Health of Children in Low-Income Countries.

Journal of tropical pediatrics pii:5739475 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-02-16

Servili A, Canario AVM, Mouchel O, et al (2020)

Climate change impacts on fish reproduction are mediated at multiple levels of the brain-pituitary-gonad axis.

General and comparative endocrinology pii:S0016-6480(19)30388-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have generated rapid variations in atmospheric composition which drives major climate changes. Climate change related effects include changes in physico-chemical proprieties of sea and freshwater, such as variations in water temperature, salinity, pH/PCO2 and oxygen content, which can impact fish critical physiological functions including reproduction. In this context, the main aim of the present review is to discuss how climate change related effects (variation in water temperature and salinity, increases in duration and frequency of hypoxia events, water acidification) would impact reproduction by affecting the neuroendocrine axis (brain-pituitary-gonad axis). Variations in temperature and photoperiod regimes are known to strongly affect sex differentiation and the timing and phenology of spawning period in several fish species. Temperature mainly acts at the level of gonad by interfering with steroidogenesis, (notably on gonadal aromatase activity) and gametogenesis. Temperature is also directly involved in the quality of released gametes and embryos development. Changes in salinity or water acidification are especially associated with reduction of sperm quality and reproductive output. Hypoxia events are able to interact with gonad steroidogenesis by acting on the steroids precursor cholesterol availability or directly on aromatase action, with an impact on the quality of gametes and reproductive success. Climate change related effects on water parameters likely influence also the reproductive behavior of fish. Although the precise mechanisms underlying the regulation of these effects are not always understood, in this review we discuss different hypothesis and propose future research perspectives.

RevDate: 2020-02-15

Stern PC (2020)

A reexamination on how behavioral interventions can promote household action to limit climate change.

Nature communications, 11(1):918 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-14653-x.

RevDate: 2020-02-15

Stacy A, SL Newbery (2020)

Climate change efforts.

Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien, 66(2):89-93.

RevDate: 2020-02-15

Hale I, D Hale (2020)

Climate change: motive, means, and opportunity.

Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien, 66(2):89.

RevDate: 2020-02-15

Inaotombi S, D Sarma (2020)

Vegetation affects photoprotective pigments and copepod distribution in the Himalayan lakes: Implication for climate change adaptation.

The Science of the total environment, 716:137053 pii:S0048-9697(20)30563-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Lakes in the Himalayas host unique biota and biological communities which are highly sensitive to climate change. High penetration of solar UV radiation in clear shallow lake affects the distribution and abundance of the zooplankton communities. Survival of copepods in such habitats often relies on available photoprotective compounds. We estimated species diversity and distribution patterns of copepods with detectable carotenoids in 7 lakes of the central Himalayas along the altitudinal gradients. To determine the factors influencing the accumulation of high-level photoprotective compounds, we analyzed the physicochemical parameters of water and the concentration of Lignin like Compounds (LLCs), Aromaticity (ARO), Humic Compounds (HCs), Degree of Humification (DoH) and percent Total Organic Matter (TOM) in littoral sediments. In the shallow lakes, copepod abundance and diversity correlate with water transparency. Humic compounds (HCs) derived from ligninaceous plants stimulate the accumulation of photoprotective compounds that allow for the domination of diaptomidae. Copepods receive photoprotective compounds from the humic-bounded sediment substrate. The amount of photoprotectants in the aquatic food chain of the central Himalayas is largely influenced by ligninaceous compounds derived from catchment vegetation. In copepods of shallow clear lakes, the remnant of dead trees in the littoral zones helps to minimize hazards caused by exposure effect and climatic stress. The reduction of vegetative covers in the shorelines may alter the community structure of zooplankton, particularly in the upland ecosystem.

RevDate: 2020-02-14

Anderson R, Bayer PE, D Edwards (2020)

Climate change and the need for agricultural adaptation.

Current opinion in plant biology pii:S1369-5266(19)30121-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Agriculture and food security are predicted to be significantly impacted by climate change, though the impact will vary by region and by crop. Combined with the increasing global population, there is an urgent need for agriculture to adapt to ensure future food security for this growing population. Adaptation strategies include changing land and cropping practices, the development of improved crop varieties and changing food consumption and waste. Recent advances in genomics and agronomy can help alleviate some of the impacts of climate change on food production; however, given the timeframe for crop improvement, significant investment is required to realise these changes. Ultimately, there is a limit as to how far agriculture can adapt to the changing climate, and a political will to reduce the impact of burning of fossil fuels on the global climate is essential for long term food security.

RevDate: 2020-02-14

Tester PA, Litaker RW, E Berdalet (2020)

Climate change and harmful benthic microalgae.

Harmful algae, 91:101655.

Sea surface temperatures in the world's oceans are projected to warm by 0.4-1.4 °C by mid twenty-first century causing many tropical and sub-tropical harmful dinoflagellate genera like Gambierdiscus, Fukuyoa and Ostreopsis (benthic harmful algal bloom species, BHABs) to exhibit higher growth rates over much of their current geographic range, resulting in higher population densities. The primary exception to this trend will be in the tropics where temperatures exceed species-specific upper thermal tolerances (30-31 °C) beyond which growth slows significantly. As surface waters warm, migration to deeper habitats is expected to provide refuge. Range extensions of several degrees of latitude also are anticipated, but only where species-specific habitat requirements can be met (e.g., temperature, suitable substrate, low turbulence, light, salinity, pH). The current understanding of habitat requirements that determine species distributions are reviewed to provide fuller understanding of how individual species will respond to climate change from the present to 2055 while addressing the paucity of information on environmental factors controlling small-scale distribution in localized habitats. Based on the available information, we hypothesized how complex environmental interactions can influence abundance and potential range extensions of BHAB species in different biogeographic regions and identify sentinel sites appropriate for long-term monitoring programs to detect range extensions and reduce human health risks.

RevDate: 2020-02-14

Gobler CJ (2020)

Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms: Insights and perspective.

Harmful algae, 91:101731.

Climate change is transforming aquatic ecosystems. Coastal waters have experienced progressive warming, acidification, and deoxygenation that will intensify this century. At the same time, there is a scientific consensus that the public health, recreation, tourism, fishery, aquaculture, and ecosystem impacts from harmful algal blooms (HABs) have all increased over the past several decades. The extent to which climate change is intensifying these HABs is not fully clear, but there has been a wealth of research on this topic this century alone. Indeed, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) approved in September 2019 was the first IPCC report to directly link HABs to climate change. In the Summary for Policy Makers, the report made the following declarations with "high confidence": In addition, the report specifically outlines a series of linkages between heat waves and HABs. These statements about HABs and climate change and the high levels of confidence ascribed to them provides clear evidence that the field of HABs and climate change has matured and has, perhaps, reached a first plateau of certainty. While there are well-documented global trends in HABs being promoted by human activity, including climate change, individual events are driven by local, regional, and global drivers, making it critical to carefully evaluate the conditions and responses at appropriate scales. It is within this context that the first Special Issue on Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms is published in Harmful Algae.

RevDate: 2020-02-14

Trainer VL, Moore SK, Hallegraeff G, et al (2020)

Pelagic harmful algal blooms and climate change: Lessons from nature's experiments with extremes.

Harmful algae, 91:101591.

Time series now have sufficient duration to determine harmful algal bloom (HAB) responses to changing climate conditions, including warming, stratification intensity, freshwater inputs and natural patterns of climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Against the context of time series, such as those available from phytoplankton monitoring, dinoflagellate cyst records, the Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys, and shellfish toxin records, it is possible to identify extreme events that are significant departures from long-term means. Extreme weather events can mimic future climate conditions and provide a "dress rehearsal" for understanding future frequency, intensity and geographic extent of HABs. Three case studies of extreme HAB events are described in detail to explore the drivers and impacts of these oceanic outliers that may become more common in the future. One example is the chain-forming diatom of the genus Pseudo-nitzschia in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and its response to the 2014-16 northeast Pacific marine heat wave. The other two case studies are pelagic flagellates. Highly potent Alexandrium catenella group 1 dinoflagellate blooms (up to 150 mg/kg PST in mussels; 4 human poisonings) during 2012-17 created havoc for the seafood industry in Tasmania, south-eastern Australia, in a poorly monitored area where such problems were previously unknown. Early evidence suggests that changes in water column stratification during the cold winter-spring season are driving new blooms caused by a previously cryptic species. An expansion of Pseudochattonella cf. verruculosa to the south and A. catenella to the north over the past several years resulted in the convergence of both species to cause the most catastrophic event in the history of the Chilean aquaculture in the austral summer of 2016. Together, these two massive blooms were colloquially known as the "Godzilla-Red tide event", resulting in the largest fish farm mortality ever recorded worldwide, equivalent to an export loss of USD$800 million which when combined with shellfish toxicity, resulted in major social unrest and rioting. Both blooms were linked to the strong El Niño event and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, the latter an indicator of anthropogenic climate change in the southeastern Pacific region. For each of these three examples, representing recent catastrophic events in geographically distinct regions, additional targeted monitoring was employed to improve the understanding of the climate drivers and mechanisms that gave rise to the event and to document the societal response. Scientists must be poised to study future extreme HAB events as these natural experiments provide unique opportunities to define and test multifactorial drivers of blooms.

RevDate: 2020-02-14

Griffith AW, CJ Gobler (2020)

Harmful algal blooms: A climate change co-stressor in marine and freshwater ecosystems.

Harmful algae, 91:101590.

Marine and freshwater ecosystems are warming, acidifying, and deoxygenating as a consequence of climate change. In parallel, the impacts of harmful algal blooms (HABs) on these ecosystems are intensifying. Many eutrophic habitats that host recurring HABs already experience thermal extremes, low dissolved oxygen, and low pH, making these locations potential sentinel sites for conditions that will become more common in larger-scale systems as climate change accelerates. While studies of the effects of HABs or individual climate change stressors on aquatic organisms have been relatively common, studies assessing their combined impacts have been rare. Those doing so have reported strong species- and strain-specific interactions between HAB species and climate change co-stressors yielding outcomes for aquatic organisms that could not have been predicted based on investigations of these factors individually. This review provides an ecological and physiological framework for considering HABs as a climate change co-stressor and considers the consequences of their combined occurrence for coastal ecosystems. This review also highlights critical gaps in our understanding of HABs as a climate change co-stressor that must be addressed in order to develop management plans that adequately protect fisheries, aquaculture, aquatic ecosystems, and human health. Ultimately, incorporating HAB species into experiments and monitoring programs where the effects of multiple climate change stressors are considered will provide a more ecologically relevant perspective of the structure and function of marine ecosystems in future, climate-altered systems.

RevDate: 2020-02-14

Hennon GMM, ST Dyhrman (2020)

Progress and promise of omics for predicting the impacts of climate change on harmful algal blooms.

Harmful algae, 91:101587.

Climate change is predicted to increase the severity and prevalence of harmful algal blooms (HABs). In the past twenty years, omics techniques such as genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics have transformed that data landscape of many fields including the study of HABs. Advances in technology have facilitated the creation of many publicly available omics datasets that are complementary and shed new light on the mechanisms of HAB formation and toxin production. Genomics have been used to reveal differences in toxicity and nutritional requirements, while transcriptomics and proteomics have been used to explore HAB species responses to environmental stressors, and metabolomics can reveal mechanisms of allelopathy and toxicity. In this review, we explore how omics data may be leveraged to improve predictions of how climate change will impact HAB dynamics. We also highlight important gaps in our knowledge of HAB prediction, which include swimming behaviors, microbial interactions and evolution that can be addressed by future studies with omics tools. Lastly, we discuss approaches to incorporate current omics datasets into predictive numerical models that may enhance HAB prediction in a changing world. With the ever-increasing omics databases, leveraging these data for understanding climate-driven HAB dynamics will be increasingly powerful.

RevDate: 2020-02-14

Glibert PM (2020)

Harmful algae at the complex nexus of eutrophication and climate change.

Harmful algae, 91:101583.

Climate projections suggest-with substantial certainty-that global warming >1.5 °C will occur by mid-century (2050). Population is also projected to increase, amplifying the demands for food, fuel, water and sanitation, which, in turn, escalate nutrient pollution. Global projections of nutrient pollution, however, are less certain than those of climate as there are regionally decreasing trends projected in Europe, and stabilization of nutrient use in North America and Australia. In this review of the effects of eutrophication and climate on harmful algae, some of the complex, subtle, and non-intuitive effects and interactions on the physiology of both harmful and non-harmful taxa are emphasized. In a future ocean, non-harmful diatoms may be disproportionately stressed and mixotrophs advantaged due to changing nutrient stoichiometry and forms of nutrients, temperature, stratification and oceanic pH. Modeling is advancing, but there is much yet to be understood, in terms of physiology, biogeochemistry and trophodynamics and how both harmful and nonharmful taxa may change in an uncertain future driven by anthropogenic activities.

RevDate: 2020-02-14

Montánchez I, VR Kaberdin (2020)

Vibrio harveyi: A brief survey of general characteristics and recent epidemiological traits associated with climate change.

Marine environmental research, 154:104850.

Here we briefly review the major characteristics of the emerging pathogen Vibrio harveyi and discuss survival strategies and adaptation mechanisms underlying the capacity of this marine bacterium to thrive in natural and artificial aquatic settings. Recent studies suggest that some adaptation mechanisms can easily be acquired by V. harveyi and other members of the Vibrionaceae family owing to efficient horizontal gene transfer and elevated mutation rate. While discussing the main factors in charge of the expansion of Vibrio spp. habitats and concomitant spread of Vibrio-associated diseases under climate change, this review highlights the need for future studies able to address the joint impact of environmental and anthropogenic factors on the long-term dynamics and virulence of V. harveyi populations at the global scale.

RevDate: 2020-02-14

Hishe H, Giday K, Soromessa T, et al (2020)

Should we Leave Nature Unattended or Assist through Enrichment to Foster Climate Change Mitigation? Exclosure Management in the Highlands of Ethiopia.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-020-01259-8 [Epub ahead of print].

In order to foster the potential of exclosures to sequester carbon, it is understood that they are increasingly assisted through enrichment planting. To study the impact of the enrichment planting on carbon sequestration process, five exclosures with enrichment planting and five pure naturally regenerated exclosures were selected. Along parallel transects, 20 × 20 m plots were laid at 100 m intervals where all woody vegetations were counted and measured for their diameter and total height. For soil sampling, five subplots at the center and four at each corner of the plots were established. The samples were collected at a depth of 0-0.2 m, and this procedure was repeated for each plot. In this case, when good management practices were implemented (such as Wukro exclosures), significant differences in organic soil carbon above the ground and the total carbon between naturally regenerated and enriched exclosures (P < 0.05) were found. The mean estimates of the above ground carbon, soil carbon, and total carbon were respectively 8.08, 31.04, and 39.12 ton/ha for natural regeneration vs. 7.94, 31.00, and 38.93 ton/ha for enriched regeneration. Lower altitudes had significantly higher soil organic carbon (P < 0.05) than the higher altitudes. However, the slope had an insignificant effect on carbon distribution. Enriched exclosures performed more poorly in carbon sequestration. This was possibly due to the disturbances caused by mass plantation and poor post plantation follow up, since improved performance (P < 0.05) was seen in one enriched exclosure with better management practices.

RevDate: 2020-02-14

Anonymous (2019)

Climate Change: Impact on Livestock and How Can We Adapt.

Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture, 9(1):NP pii:vfz022.

RevDate: 2020-02-14

Waldvogel AM, Feldmeyer B, Rolshausen G, et al (2020)

Evolutionary genomics can improve prediction of species' responses to climate change.

Evolution letters, 4(1):4-18 pii:EVL3154.

Global climate change (GCC) increasingly threatens biodiversity through the loss of species, and the transformation of entire ecosystems. Many species are challenged by the pace of GCC because they might not be able to respond fast enough to changing biotic and abiotic conditions. Species can respond either by shifting their range, or by persisting in their local habitat. If populations persist, they can tolerate climatic changes through phenotypic plasticity, or genetically adapt to changing conditions depending on their genetic variability and census population size to allow for de novo mutations. Otherwise, populations will experience demographic collapses and species may go extinct. Current approaches to predicting species responses to GCC begin to combine ecological and evolutionary information for species distribution modelling. Including an evolutionary dimension will substantially improve species distribution projections which have not accounted for key processes such as dispersal, adaptive genetic change, demography, or species interactions. However, eco-evolutionary models require new data and methods for the estimation of a species' adaptive potential, which have so far only been available for a small number of model species. To represent global biodiversity, we need to devise large-scale data collection strategies to define the ecology and evolutionary potential of a broad range of species, especially of keystone species of ecosystems. We also need standardized and replicable modelling approaches that integrate these new data to account for eco-evolutionary processes when predicting the impact of GCC on species' survival. Here, we discuss different genomic approaches that can be used to investigate and predict species responses to GCC. This can serve as guidance for researchers looking for the appropriate experimental setup for their particular system. We furthermore highlight future directions for moving forward in the field and allocating available resources more effectively, to implement mitigation measures before species go extinct and ecosystems lose important functions.

RevDate: 2020-02-14

Fant C, Boehlert B, Strzepek K, et al (2020)

Climate change impacts and costs to U.S. electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure.

Energy (Oxford, England), 195:.

This study presents a screening-level analysis of the impacts of climate change on electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure of the U.S. In particular, the model identifies changes in performance and longevity of physical infrastructure such as power poles and transformers, and quantifies these impacts in economic terms. This analysis was evaluated for the contiguous U.S, using five general circulation models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to analyze changes in damage and cost from the baseline period to the end of the century with three different adaptation strategies. Total infrastructure costs were found to rise considerably, with annual climate change expenditures increasing by as much as 25%. The results demonstrate that climate impacts will likely be substantial, though this analysis only captures a portion of the total potential impacts. A proactive adaptation strategy resulted in the expected costs of climate change being reduced by as much as 50% by 2090, compared to a scenario without adaptation. Impacts vary across the contiguous U.S. with the highest impacts in parts of the Southeast and Northwest. Improvements and extensions to this analysis would help better inform climate resiliency policies and utility-level planning for the future.

RevDate: 2020-02-14

Jia P, Wang T, van Vliet AJH, et al (2020)

Worsening of tree-related public health issues under climate change.

RevDate: 2020-02-13

Sultana S, Baumgartner JB, Dominiak BC, et al (2020)

Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia.

PloS one, 15(2):e0213820 pii:PONE-D-19-06000.

Tephritid fruit flies are among the most destructive horticultural pests posing risks to Australia's multi-billion-dollar horticulture industry. Currently, there are 11 pest fruit fly species of economic concern in Australia. Of these, nine are native to this continent (Bactrocera aquilonis, B. bryoniae, B. halfordiae, B. jarvisi, B. kraussi, B. musae, B. neohumeralis, B. tryoni and Zeugodacus cucumis), while B. frauenfeldi and Ceratitis capitata are introduced. To varying degrees these species are costly to Australia's horticulture through in-farm management, monitoring to demonstrate pest freedom, quarantine and trade restrictions, and crop losses. Here, we used a common species distribution model, Maxent, to assess climate suitability for these 11 species under baseline (1960-1990) and future climate scenarios for Australia. Projections indicate that the Wet Tropics is likely to be vulnerable to all 11 species until at least 2070, with the east coast of Australia also likely to remain vulnerable to multiple species. While the Cape York Peninsula and Northern Territory are projected to have suitable climate for numerous species, extrapolation to novel climates in these areas decreases confidence in model projections. The climate suitability of major horticulture areas currently in eastern Queensland, southern-central New South Wales and southern Victoria to these pests may increase as climate changes. By highlighting areas at risk of pest range expansion in the future our study may guide Australia's horticulture industry in developing effective monitoring and management strategies.

RevDate: 2020-02-13

Wang H, Liu H, Cao G, et al (2020)

Alpine grassland plants grow earlier and faster but biomass remains unchanged over 35 years of climate change.

Satellite data indicate significant advancement in alpine spring phenology over decades of climate warming, but corresponding field evidence is scarce. It is also unknown whether this advancement results from an earlier shift of phenological events, or enhancement of plant growth under unchanged phenological pattern. By analyzing a 35-year dataset of seasonal biomass dynamics of a Tibetan alpine grassland, we show that climate change promoted both earlier phenology and faster growth, without changing annual biomass production. Biomass production increased in spring due to a warming-induced earlier onset of plant growth, but decreased in autumn due mainly to increased water stress. Plants grew faster but the fast-growing period shortened during the mid-growing season. These findings provide the first in situ evidence of long-term changes in growth patterns in alpine grassland plant communities, and suggest that earlier phenology and faster growth will jointly contribute to plant growth in a warming climate.

RevDate: 2020-02-13
CmpDate: 2020-02-13

Jarsjö J, Andersson-Sköld Y, Fröberg M, et al (2020)

Projecting impacts of climate change on metal mobilization at contaminated sites: Controls by the groundwater level.

The Science of the total environment, 712:135560.

Heavy metal and metalloid contamination of topsoils from atmospheric deposition and release from landfills, agriculture, and industries is a widespread problem that is estimated to affect >50% of the EU's land surface. Influx of contaminants from soil to groundwater and their further downstream spread and impact on drinking water quality constitute a main exposure risk to humans. There is increasing concern that the present contaminant loading of groundwater and surface water systems may be altered, and potentially aggravated, by ongoing climate change, through large-scale impacts on recharge and groundwater levels. We investigated this issue by performing hydrogeological-geochemical model projections of changes in metal(loid) (As and Pb) mobilization in response to possible (climate-driven) future shifts in groundwater level and fluctuation amplitudes. We used observed initial conditions and boundary conditions for contaminated soils in the temperate climate zone. The results showed that relatively modest increases (0.2 m) in average levels of shallow groundwater systems, which may occur in Northern Europe within the coming two decades, can increase mass flows of metals through groundwater by a factor of 2-10. There is a similar risk of increased metal mobilization in regions subject to increased (seasonal or event-scale) amplitude of groundwater levels fluctuations. Neglecting groundwater level dynamics in predictive models can thus lead to considerable and systematic underestimation of metal mobilization and future changes. More generally, our results suggest that the key to quantifying impacts of climate change on metal mobilization is to understand how the contact between groundwater and the highly water-conducting and geochemically heterogeneous topsoil layers will change in the future.

RevDate: 2020-02-13

Lengyel E, Lázár D, Trájer AJ, et al (2020)

Climate change projections for Carpathian soda pans on the basis of photosynthesis evidence from typical diatom species.

The Science of the total environment, 710:136241.

The Carpathian Basin is home to a number of astatic soda pans which are especially vulnerable to the climate change due to their high degree of hydrological sensitivity. The photosynthetic plasticity of the three most dominant benthic diatom species (Nitzschia aurariae, N. reskovii, N. supralitorea) in a number of soda pans was measured, along with sulphate and chloride ion content; conductivity and temperature gradients were also recorded. On the basis of the maximal photosynthetic activity (Ps), climate models were employed to observe and predict the effects of climate change on photosynthesis over three time-spans: past (1970-2000), recent past (2005-2015) and projected future (2041-2060). Comparing the periods, it becomes apparent that climate change has a significant effect on photosynthesis and the photosynthetically active period of the Nitzschia species, the dominant primary producers in soda pans, by enhancing their photosynthetic activity and extending their vegetation period by two months. Due to the breadth of their ecological niche, the competitive advantages of the diatom species studied in the course of this research as against others are expected to prevail under the conditions predicted by the climate scenario presented here.

RevDate: 2020-02-12

Beaudry E, McKay FH, BC Haines (2020)

How are Victorian Local Government's Responding to Climate Change and Food Insecurity?.

Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals [Epub ahead of print].

ISSUE ADDRESSED: Climate change is one of the greatest challenges to public health and wellbeing. Steps taken by governments now will have a significant effect on public health outcomes, including the food system and food security.

METHOD: This study reviewed municipal public health and wellbeing plans from 79 local government areas (LGAs) in Victoria, Australia. Documents were included if they explicitly mentioned climate change and food insecurity. Of the 79 LGAs, 13 met the selection criteria and a content and framing analysis was conducted to identify the level of recognition of climate change on food security and proposed mitigation actions and strategies.

RESULTS: Of the 13 LGAs, the documents of six were identified as having a high level of responsiveness to climate change and food insecurity, five were assessed as medium, and two low. Framing analysis identified council acknowledgment of how climate change effects food access through availability and price, and growing food locally and sustainably seen as a common action to improve food security.

CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggest that planning for climate change and food insecurity is not a high priority for Victorian LGAs. Given the current political climate in Australia, where many in federal government continue to deny the existence of climate change or are reluctant to implement mitigation strategies, it is now and will be increasingly important into the future that local governments plan for the impact of climate change on food insecurity. SO WHAT?: Climate change will impact how people access food and what foods are available to them. Unless all levels of government start to address, and plan for, climate change, the impact on communities will continue to intensify and grow more costly and damaging.

RevDate: 2020-02-11

Lloyd EA, TG Shepherd (2020)

Environmental catastrophes, climate change, and attribution.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences [Epub ahead of print].

In our discussion of environmental and ecological catastrophes or disasters resulting from extreme weather events, we unite disparate literatures, the biological and the physical. Our goal is to tie together biological understandings of extreme environmental events with physical understandings of extreme weather events into joint causal accounts. This requires fine-grained descriptions, in both space and time, of the ecological, evolutionary, and biological moving parts of a system together with fine-grained descriptions, also in both space and time, of the extreme weather events. We find that both the "storyline" approach to extreme event attribution and the probabilistic "risk-based" approach have uses in such descriptions. However, the storyline approach is more readily aligned with the forensic approach to evidence that is prevalent in the ecological literature, which cultivates expert-based rules of thumb, that is, heuristics, and detailed methods for analyzing causes and mechanisms. We introduce below a number of preliminary examples of such studies as instances of what could be pursued in the future in much more detail.

RevDate: 2020-02-11

Issoufou AA, Soumana I, Maman G, et al (2020)

Dynamic relationship of traditional soil restoration practices and climate change adaptation in semi-arid Niger.

Heliyon, 6(1):e03265 pii:e03265.

Climate change increases the vulnerability of agrosystems to soil degradation and reduces the effectiveness of traditional soil restoration options. The implementation of some practices need to be readjusted due to steadily increasing temperature and lowering precipitation. For farmers, the best practice found, should have the potential to achieve maximum sustainable levels of soil productivity in the context of climate change. A study was conducted in South-West Niger to investigate the use of the suitable practice, through (i) a meta-analysis of case studies, (ii) using field survey and (iii) by using AquaCrop model. Results showed that the effects of the association zaï + mulch on crop yield was up to 2 times higher than control plots depending on climate projections scenario RCP 8.5 under which carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are projected to reach 936 ppm by 2100. The practice appeared to be an interesting option for enhancing crop productivity in a context of climate change. Concerning its ability, it offers the best prospects to reverse soil degradation in the study area. In addition, the simulation showed that this strategy was suitable for timely sowing and therefore confirmed scholars and farmers views. Furthermore, this practice is relatively more effective compared to the others practices. These results show that association zaï + mulch could be considered as the best practice that can participate to a successful adaptation to reduce risk from climate change at the same time by reducing the vulnerability of farmers in Southwest of Niger for now and even for the future.

RevDate: 2020-02-11

Román-Palacios C, JJ Wiens (2020)

Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1913007117 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change may be a major threat to biodiversity in the next 100 years. Although there has been important work on mechanisms of decline in some species, it generally remains unclear which changes in climate actually cause extinctions, and how many species will likely be lost. Here, we identify the specific changes in climate that are associated with the widespread local extinctions that have already occurred. We then use this information to predict the extent of future biodiversity loss and to identify which processes may forestall extinction. We used data from surveys of 538 plant and animal species over time, 44% of which have already had local extinctions at one or more sites. We found that locations with local extinctions had larger and faster changes in hottest yearly temperatures than those without. Surprisingly, sites with local extinctions had significantly smaller changes in mean annual temperatures, despite the widespread use of mean annual temperatures as proxies for overall climate change. Based on their past rates of dispersal, we estimate that 57-70% of these 538 species will not disperse quickly enough to avoid extinction. However, we show that niche shifts appear to be far more important for avoiding extinction than dispersal, although most studies focus only on dispersal. Specifically, considering both dispersal and niche shifts, we project that only 16-30% of these 538 species may go extinct by 2070. Overall, our results help identify the specific climatic changes that cause extinction and the processes that may help species to survive.

RevDate: 2020-02-11

Ezquer I, Salameh I, Colombo L, et al (2020)

Plant Cell Walls Tackling Climate Change: Insights into Plant Cell Wall Remodeling, Its Regulation, and Biotechnological Strategies to Improve Crop Adaptations and Photosynthesis in Response to Global Warming.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 9(2): pii:plants9020212.

Plant cell wall (CW) is a complex and intricate structure that performs several functions throughout the plant life cycle. The CW of plants is critical to the maintenance of cells' structural integrity by resisting internal hydrostatic pressures, providing flexibility to support cell division and expansion during tissue differentiation, and acting as an environmental barrier that protects the cells in response to abiotic stress. Plant CW, comprised primarily of polysaccharides, represents the largest sink for photosynthetically fixed carbon, both in plants and in the biosphere. The CW structure is highly varied, not only between plant species but also among different organs, tissues, and cell types in the same organism. During the developmental processes, the main CW components, i.e., cellulose, pectins, hemicelluloses, and different types of CW-glycoproteins, interact constantly with each other and with the environment to maintain cell homeostasis. Differentiation processes are altered by positional effect and are also tightly linked to environmental changes, affecting CW both at the molecular and biochemical levels. The negative effect of climate change on the environment is multifaceted, from high temperatures, altered concentrations of greenhouse gases such as increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, soil salinity, and drought, to increasing frequency of extreme weather events taking place concomitantly, therefore, climate change affects crop productivity in multiple ways. Rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is expected to increase photosynthetic rates, especially at high temperatures and under water-limited conditions. This review aims to synthesize current knowledge regarding the effects of climate change on CW biogenesis and modification. We discuss specific cases in crops of interest carrying cell wall modifications that enhance tolerance to climate change-related stresses; from cereals such as rice, wheat, barley, or maize to dicots of interest such as brassica oilseed, cotton, soybean, tomato, or potato. This information could be used for the rational design of genetic engineering traits that aim to increase the stress tolerance in key crops. Future growing conditions expose plants to variable and extreme climate change factors, which negatively impact global agriculture, and therefore further research in this area is critical.

RevDate: 2020-02-10

Fischer JW (2020)

Climate change and Canadian emergency medicine: Exploring alternative futures.

CJEM pii:S1481803519004846 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-02-10

Fredston-Hermann A, Selden B, Pinsky M, et al (2020)

Cold range edges of marine fishes track climate change better than warm edges.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Species around the world are shifting their ranges in response to climate change. To make robust predictions about climate-related colonizations and extinctions, it is vital to understand the dynamics of range edges. This study is among the first to examine annual dynamics of cold and warm range edges, as most global change studies average observational data over space or over time. We analyzed annual range edge dynamics of marine fishes-both at the individual species level and pooled into cold- and warm-edge assemblages-in a multi-decade time-series of trawl surveys conducted on the Northeast U.S. Shelf during a period of rapid warming. We tested whether cold edges show stronger evidence of climate tracking than warm edges (due to non-climate processes or time lags at the warm edge; the biogeography hypothesis or extinction debt hypothesis), or whether they tracked temperature change equally (due to the influence of habitat suitability; the ecophysiology hypothesis). In addition to exploring correlations with regional temperature change, we calculated species- and assemblage-specific sea bottom and sea surface temperature isotherms and used them to predict range edge position. Cold edges shifted further and tracked sea surface and bottom temperature isotherms to a greater degree than warm edges. Mixed-effects models revealed that for a one-degree latitude shift in isotherm position, cold edges shifted 0.47 degrees of latitude, and warm edges shifted only 0.28 degrees. Our results suggest that cold range edges are tracking climate change better than warm range edges, invalidating the ecophysiology hypothesis. We also found that even among highly mobile marine ectotherms in a global warming hotspot, few species are fully keeping pace with climate.

RevDate: 2020-02-10

Oyinlola MA, Reygondeau G, Wabnitz CCC, et al (2020)

Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio-economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%-40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the 'no mitigation policy' scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid-21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 ('strong mitigation') and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.

RevDate: 2020-02-09

Sofuoğlu E, A Ay (2020)

The relationship between climate change and political instability: the case of MENA countries (1985:01-2016:12).

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-07937-8 [Epub ahead of print].

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between climate change and political instability in the MENA region. To this extent, 18 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries are analyzed covering the period 1985:01-2016:12 with monthly data. In econometric analysis, at first cross-sectional dependency analysis is applied, and existence of cross-sectional dependency among countries is found. Therefore, CADF-second generation panel unit root test applied, and finally, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test that consider the cross-sectional dependency are utilized. For empirical analysis, temperature and precipitation data representing climate change, political instability, and conflict data are employed. According to the findings, there is a causal relationship from climate change to political instability in 16 countries and to conflict in 15 countries. In addition to this, at least one causal relationship is determined from climate change to political instability or conflict in all MENA countries. Therefore, empirical results support the assumption that climate change acts as a threat multiplier in MENA countries since it triggers, accelerates, and deepens the current instabilities.

RevDate: 2020-02-08

Chen MF (2020)

Moral extension of the protection motivation theory model to predict climate change mitigation behavioral intentions in Taiwan.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-07963-6 [Epub ahead of print].

In this study, perceived moral obligations were included in the protection motivation theory (PMT) model to explain people's intentions to participate in climate change mitigation behaviors. Empirical data and structural equation modeling results of a nationwide cross-sectional survey in Taiwan confirmed the higher explanatory power of the moral extension PMT model than that of the original PMT model. As expected, threat and coping appraisal of climate change affect protection motivation. In addition, perceived moral obligation affects protection motivation. This protection motivation enhances the intention to participate in climate change mitigation behaviors. The mediation effect of protection motivation was also verified in the moral extension PMT model. Practical implications and suggestions are proposed for the government and related authorities as well as environmental groups to encourage people to participate in climate change mitigation behaviors.

RevDate: 2020-02-08

Alonso L, F Renard (2020)

A Comparative Study of the Physiological and Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities to Heat Waves of the Population of the Metropolis of Lyon (France) in a Climate Change Context.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(3): pii:ijerph17031004.

Increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves are direct consequences of global climate change with a higher risk for urban populations due to the urban heat island effect. Reducing urban overheating is a priority, as is identifying the most vulnerable people to establish targeted and coordinated public health policies. There are many ways of understanding the concept of vulnerability and multiple definitions and applications exist in the literature. To date, however, nothing has been done on the territory of this study, the metropolis of Lyon (France). The objective is thus to construct two vulnerability indices: physiological, focusing on the organism's capacities to respond to heat waves; and socio-economic, based on the social and economic characteristics and capacities of the community. To this end, two complementary methodologies have been implemented: the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and the PCA (Principal Component Analysis) with Varimax rotation, respectively. The results were then spatialized to the smallest demographic census unit in France. The areas highlighted differed due to conceptual and methodological differences: the highest physiological vulnerabilities are in the center while the socio-economic ones are in the eastern periphery of the urban area. The location of these areas will enable prevention campaigns to be carried out, targeted according to the publics concerned.

RevDate: 2020-02-07

Ainsworth A, DR Drake (2020)

Classifying Hawaiian plant species along a habitat generalist-specialist continuum: Implications for species conservation under climate change.

PloS one, 15(2):e0228573 pii:PONE-D-19-21373.

Plant communities on tropical high islands, such as the Hawaiian Islands, are predicted to experience rapid climate change, resulting in novel climates. If increased temperature and/or drought exceed plant species' current tolerances, species that are unable to adapt or shift ranges risk extinction. By definition, habitat generalists have a wide niche breadth and thrive in a variety of habitats, whereas habitat specialists have a narrow niche breadth, and typically thrive under more specific climatic characteristics (e.g., cold). The objectives of this study were to: (1) classify plant species in the Hawaiian Islands along a habitat generalist-specialist continuum; (2) independently test the validity of species rankings, using environmental and biogeographic ranges; and (3) identify species' life-history traits that predict species location along the continuum. We quantified specialization for 170 plant species using species co-occurrence data from over one thousand plots to rank species' realized habitat niche breadth using the Jaccard index. The distribution of species along this continuum differed by species biogeographic origin, with endemic plant species ranked on the specialist end and non-native plant species ranked on the generalist end. Habitat specialization rankings also differed for four of nine tested variables (while controlling for biogeographic origin): number of habitat moisture types, minimum elevation, number of Hawaiian Islands, and life form. Life form was the only trait tested that differed across the continuum, with woody species ranked as stronger generalists than herbaceous species; this pattern was particularly evident for non-native species. This indirect method of estimating species' potential climatic flexibility uses increasingly available large plant community data sets with output rankings which represent species' realized habitat niches. Identifying species and plant communities that are on the habitat specialist end of the continuum allows for their prioritization in conservation planning, as globally the loss of specialists is an indication of degradation.

RevDate: 2020-02-07

Roshan G, Arab M, V Klimenko (2019)

Modeling the impact of climate change on energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of buildings in Iran.

Journal of environmental health science & engineering, 17(2):889-906 pii:406.

In this study, it has been attempted to quantify model climate change effects of the coming decades on energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions of a dominant building brigade under hot and humid climates on the southern coast of Iran, based on three stations of Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Chabahar. In this research, the Meteonorm and DesignBuilder software have been used for climate and thermal simulation of building. One of the results of this study is the increase in temperature and relative humidity for the coming decades for all three study stations. The findings of this study showed that the average annual temperature for the 2060s compared to the present decade, will increase by 2.82 °C for Bandar Abbas, by 2.79 °C for Bushehr and for Chabahar it will reach 2.14 °C. This increase in temperature has led to an increase in discomfort warmer days and a decrease in discomfort cold days. But given the climatic type of the area, a decrease in the heating energy demand for the coming decades will not have a significant effect on the pattern of energy consumption inside buildings. Because for two stations of Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, more than 95% of the energy demand for the 2060s is for cooling energy demand, which is about 80% of energy for Bushehr. In total, due to the increased demand for cooling energy in the coming decades, this will further increase carbon dioxide emissions, which is higher in Chabahar than in other study stations.

RevDate: 2020-02-07

Salehi S, Ardalan A, Ostadtaghizadeh A, et al (2019)

Conceptual definition and framework of climate change and dust storm adaptation: a qualitative study.

Journal of environmental health science & engineering, 17(2):797-810 pii:396.

Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is a complex, multi-disciplinary, and culture-dependent concept. This study aims to explore a conceptual definition, the subjective framework of CCA including its domains, attributes, and consequences. The approach of qualitative conventional content analysis was considered for the explanation of the subjective concept, and at the same time as the collection process, data analysis was performed using Zhang and Wildemuth's method. The interview method was semi-structured and sampling was targeted and with maximum diversity. The interview was conducted with 22 qualified experts. The accuracy and validity of the data were ensured using Guba and Lincoln scientific accuracy criteria. Six main categories including "sustainability, productivity, stability, empowerment, transformation, and flexibility" were conceptualized in the theme of adaptation characteristics. "Sustainable development, life improvement, response coordination and integration, creativity and innovation, resilience promotion, vulnerability reduction, effective management, and independence" were the main categories in the theme of the adaptation consequences. According to the results, the following conceptual-functional definition can be presented for adaptation to climate change: "CCA refers to the ability of system instability, sustainability, empowerment, productivity, flexibility, and transformation to climate change through the optimal use of resources, resistance, and coping, capacity building and opportunity creation". This definition is conceptual, it means that includes the main features of climate-adaptation and is also functional that is, includes adaptation strategies for climate change.

RevDate: 2020-02-07

Chen J, Wang Z, Tam CY, et al (2020)

Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and induced storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region using pseudo-global-warming method.

Scientific reports, 10(1):1965 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-58824-8.

We have investigated changes of western North Pacific land-falling tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics due to warmer climate conditions, using the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) technique. Historical simulations of three intense TCs making landfall in Pearl River Delta (PRD) were first conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The same cases were then re-simulated by superimposing near- (2015-2039) and far- (2075-2099) future temperature and humidity changes onto the background climate; these changes were derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model projections according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Peak intensities of TCs (maximum surface wind in their lifetimes) are expected to increase by ~ (3) 10% in the (near) far future. Further experiments indicate that surface warming alone acts to intensify TCs by enhancing sea surface heat flux, while warmer atmosphere acts in the opposite way by increasing the stability. In the far future, associated storm surges are also estimated to increase by about 8.5%, computed by the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. Combined with sea level rise and estimated land vertical displacement, TC-induced storm tide affecting PRD will increase by ~1 m in the future 2075-2099 period.

RevDate: 2020-02-07

Soroye P, Newbold T, J Kerr (2020)

Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees across continents.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 367(6478):685-688.

Climate change could increase species' extinction risk as temperatures and precipitation begin to exceed species' historically observed tolerances. Using long-term data for 66 bumble bee species across North America and Europe, we tested whether this mechanism altered likelihoods of bumble bee species' extinction or colonization. Increasing frequency of hotter temperatures predicts species' local extinction risk, chances of colonizing a new area, and changing species richness. Effects are independent of changing land uses. The method developed in this study permits spatially explicit predictions of climate change-related population extinction-colonization dynamics within species that explains observed patterns of geographical range loss and expansion across continents. Increasing frequencies of temperatures that exceed historically observed tolerances help explain widespread bumble bee species decline. This mechanism may also contribute to biodiversity loss more generally.

RevDate: 2020-02-07

Voosen P (2020)

Climate change spurs global speedup of ocean currents.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 367(6478):612-613.

RevDate: 2020-02-06

Applequist WL, Brinckmann JA, Cunningham AB, et al (2020)

Erratum: Scientists' Warning on Climate Change and Medicinal Plants.

Planta medica, 86(1):e1.

RevDate: 2020-02-06

Leandro J, Chen KF, Wood RR, et al (2020)

A scalable flood-resilience-index for measuring climate change adaptation: Munich city.

Water research, 173:115502 pii:S0043-1354(20)30038-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is affecting the frequency and intensity of rainfall extreme events worldwide. Despite the growing global awareness, developing flood resilient cities has proven to be a major challenge. This paper investigates the application of an event-based scalable Flood Resilience Index (FRI) for assessing climate change adaptation. Flood resilience is represented by three dimensions: physical, social and economic. A household climate adaptation is adopted consisting of a combination of a flood-proof gate with an indoor tank and a submersible pump system implemented in all houses. The climate related impact under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) is analysed for Munich with the CRCM5 Large-Ensemble. Results show that for Munich extreme heavy rainfall events are increasing. The FRI can successfully identify households and districts which: a) are mostly affected by heavy rainfall, b) benefit the most from the climate adaptation, and c) are the most resilient. For the most severe future scenario investigated the climate adaptation measure was able to improve 57% of all affected buildings within Maxvorstadt to an FRI equal to 1.0 during the event and recovery phase.

RevDate: 2020-02-06

Iknayan KJ, SR Beissinger (2020)

In Transition: Avian Biogeographic Responses to a Century of Climate Change Across Desert Biomes.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Transition zones between biomes, also known as ecotones, are areas of pronounced ecological change. They are primarily maintained by abiotic factors and disturbance regimes that could hinder or promote species range shifts in response to climate change. We evaluated how climate change has affected metacommunity dynamics in two adjacent biomes and across their ecotone by resurveying 106 sites that were originally surveyed for avian diversity in the early 20th century by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues. The Mojave, a warm desert, and the Great Basin, a cold desert, have distinct assemblages and meet along a contiguous, east-west boundary. Both deserts substantially warmed over the past century, but the Mojave dried while the Great Basin became wetter. We examined whether the distinctiveness and composition of desert avifaunas have changed, if species distributions shifted, and how the transition zone impacted turnover patterns. Avifauna change was characterized by (a) reduced occupancy, range contractions, and idiosyncratic species redistributions; (b) degradation of historic community structure, and increased taxonomic and climatic differentiation of the species inhabiting the two deserts; and (c) high levels of turnover at the transition zone but little range expansion of species from the warm, dry Mojave into the cooler, wetter Great Basin. Although both deserts now support more drier- and warmer-tolerant species, their bird communities still occupy distinct climatological space and differ significantly in climatic composition. Our results suggest a persistent transition zone between biomes contributes to limiting the redistribution of birds, and highlight the importance of understanding how transition zone dynamics impact responses to climate change.

RevDate: 2020-02-03

Akter S, Krupnik TJ, F Khanam (2017)

Climate change skepticism and index versus standard crop insurance demand in coastal Bangladesh.

Regional environmental change, 17:2456-2466.

This paper investigates if climate change skepticism, farmers' fatalistic beliefs, and insurance plan design influence interest in crop weather insurance. While studies of the influence of fatalism on disaster preparedness are common, the ways in which fatalism influences climate change skepticism, and in turn affects farmers' interest in crop insurance, have not been previously investigated. An additional objective was to understand farmers' preferences for index versus standard insurance options, the former entailing damage compensation based on post-hazard assessment, the latter tying damage compensation to a set of weather parameter thresholds. A discrete choice experiment was conducted with maize farmers on a climate-risk prone island in coastal Bangladesh. Most farmers were insurance averse. Those who chose insurance were however significantly more likely to select standard as opposed to index-based insurance. Insurance demand was significantly and positively correlated with farmers' concern about the adverse livelihood impacts of climate change. Farmers who exhibited fatalistic views regarding the consequences of climate change were significantly less likely to opt for insurance of either kind. These findings imply that the prospect for farmers' investment in insurance is conditioned by their understanding of climate change risks and the utility of adaptation, in addition to insurance scheme design.

RevDate: 2020-02-03

Ford JD, Labbé J, Flynn M, et al (2017)

Readiness for climate change adaptation in the Arctic: a case study from Nunavut, Canada.

Climatic change, 145(1):85-100.

There is limited knowledge on institutional factors constraining and enabling climate change adaptation in Arctic regions, or the overall readiness of governing bodies and communities to develop, implement, and promote adaptation. This paper examines the preparedness of different levels of government to adapt in the Canadian Arctic territory of Nunavut, drawing upon semi-structured interviews with government personnel and organizations involved in adaptation. In the Government of Nunavut, there have been notable developments around adaptation planning and examples of adaptation champions, but readiness for adaptation is challenged by a number of factors including the existence of pressing socio-economic problems, and institutional and governmental barriers. Federally, there is evidence of high-level leadership on adaptation, the creation of adaptation programs, and allocation of funds for adaptation, although the focus has been mostly on researching adaptation options as opposed to supporting actual actions or policy change. The 2016 Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, and increasing emphasis on climate change federally and in the Government of Nunavut, offer opportunities for advancing adaptation, but concrete steps are needed to ensure readiness is enhanced.

RevDate: 2020-02-05

Chae SM, D Kim (2020)

Research Trends in Agenda-setting for Climate Change Adaptation Policy in the Public Health Sector in Korea.

Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi, 53(1):3-14.

Many studies have been conducted to assess the health effects of climate change in Korea. However, there has been a lack of consideration regarding how the results of these studies can be applied to relevant policies. The current study aims to examine research trends at the agenda-setting stage and to review future ways in which health-related adaptation to climate change can be addressed within national public health policy. A systematic review of previous studies of the health effects of climate change in Korea was conducted. Many studies have evaluated the effect of ambient temperature on health. A large number of studies have examined the effects on deaths and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, but a limitation of these studies is that it is difficult to apply their findings to climate change adaptation policy in the health sector. Many infectious disease studies were also identified, but these mainly focused on malaria. Regarding climate change-related factors other than ambient temperature, studies of the health effects of these factors (with the exception of air pollution) are limited. In Korea, it can be concluded that studies conducted as part of the agenda-setting stage are insufficient, both because studies on the health effects of climate change have not ventured beyond defining the problem and because health adaptation to climate change has not been set as an important agenda item. In the future, the sharing and development of relevant databases is necessary. In addition, the priority of agenda items should be determined as part of a government initiative.

RevDate: 2020-02-05

Kwon HJ (2020)

Climate Change and Health: More Research Is Still Needed.

Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi, 53(1):1-2.

RevDate: 2020-02-05

Cabrera CVP, JJ Selvaraj (2020)

Corrigendum to "Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia" [Heliyon Volume 6, Issue 1, January 2020, e03101].

Heliyon, 6(1):e03203 pii:e03203.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e03101.].

RevDate: 2020-02-05

Lababpour A (2020)

The response of dust emission sources to climate change: Current and future simulation for southwest of Iran.

The Science of the total environment, 714:136821 pii:S0048-9697(20)30331-4 [Epub ahead of print].

This study recognizes present dust emission sources (DESs) and their future projections in the southwest of Iran (2050 and 2070) through simulations performed by distribution models. The sites observation, raster dataset of climate layers and statistical models in the MaxEnt software were used to predict the current and future dust coverage and distribution, and their response to climate change using representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios of +2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W m-2 projections. Statistical machine learning analysis show that 40.8% of the study area covering 25,810 km2 are susceptible to emit dust at the present time, and its projections will increase up to 28,839, 26,002, 26,071 and 26,124 km2 for RCP scenarios of +2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W m-2, respectively, by the year 2070. Temperature and precipitation assessments show that the most effective parameters determine future changes in DES coverage and distribution. The area under the curve (AUC) for DESs was 0.919, and results of Jackknife analyses show high sensitivity of dust sources to climate variables. The results illustrate that the present DESs are mainly driven by a combination of temperature, precipitation and land-use management, and the effects of nature are comparable to the anthropogenic activities, as humans continue to shape the DESs through energy, water and land use. The predicted increase of DESs may substantially worsen dust storms in the future, thereby affecting the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health. The outcomes of this study may support biocrust restoration technologies as a suitable option in sustainable management of arid lands and dust emission sources.

RevDate: 2020-02-04

Prevéy JS (2020)

Climate Change: Flowering Time May Be Shifting in Surprising Ways.

Current biology : CB, 30(3):R112-R114.

A new study examined how flowering phenology has changed over the past three decades along an elevational gradient. These findings indicate that climate change is shifting flowering time in complex ways, even across local spatial gradients.

RevDate: 2020-02-04

Cordero EC, Centeno D, AM Todd (2020)

The role of climate change education on individual lifetime carbon emissions.

PloS one, 15(2):e0206266 pii:PONE-D-18-28910.

Strategies to mitigate climate change often center on clean technologies, such as electric vehicles and solar panels, while the mitigation potential of a quality educational experience is rarely discussed. In this paper, we investigate the long-term impact that an intensive one-year university course had on individual carbon emissions by surveying students at least five years after having taken the course. A majority of course graduates reported pro-environmental decisions (i.e., type of car to buy, food choices) that they attributed at least in part to experiences gained in the course. Furthermore, our carbon footprint analysis suggests that for the average course graduate, these decisions reduced their individual carbon emissions by 2.86 tons of CO2 per year. Surveys and focus group interviews identify that course graduates have developed a strong personal connection to climate change solutions, and this is realized in their daily behaviors and through their professional careers. The paper discusses in more detail the specific components of the course that are believed to be most impactful, and the uncertainties associated with this type of research design. Our analysis also demonstrates that if similar education programs were applied at scale, the potential reductions in carbon emissions would be of similar magnitude to other large-scale mitigation strategies, such as rooftop solar or electric vehicles.

RevDate: 2020-02-04

Rudolph L, Maizlish N, North S, et al (2020)

A Public Health Learning Collaborative on Climate Change for Urban Health Departments, 2016-2018.

Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974) [Epub ahead of print].

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this project was to demonstrate and assess approaches of urban local health departments (LHDs) to simultaneously address climate change, health, and equity; incorporate climate change into program practice; and participate in their jurisdiction's climate change work.

METHODS: From January 2016 through March 2018, the Center for Climate Change and Health created learning activities, networking and relationship-building opportunities, communication platforms, and information sharing for 12 urban LHDs in the United States. We used administrative data and conducted interviews with participants and key informants to assess success in meeting learning collaborative goals.

RESULTS: LHDs developed diverse projects that incorporated internal capacity building, climate and health vulnerability assessments, surveillance, and community engagement. Projects fostered greater LHD engagement on climate change, broadened community partnerships, and furthered LHD integration into jurisdictions' climate planning. LHD engagement helped shift the dialogue in the community and jurisdiction about climate change to include public health.

CONCLUSIONS: LHDs have skills and expertise to rapidly partner with other governmental agencies and community-based organizations and to help communities identify vulnerabilities, take action to reduce the health harms of climate change, and-through Health in All Policies approaches and community partnerships-to ensure that climate policies are optimized for positive health and equity outcomes.

RevDate: 2020-02-04

Sadykova D, Scott BE, De Dominicis M, et al (2020)

Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator-prey population distributions by 2050.

Ecology and evolution, 10(2):1069-1086 pii:ECE35973.

Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator-prey overlap in 2050 under the "business-as-usual, worst-case" climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black-legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth-averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator-prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator-prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator-prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade-offs in decisions involving issues of large-scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial fishing, and large-scale marine renewable developments.

RevDate: 2020-02-04

Sloane JD, JR Wiles (2020)

Communicating the consensus on climate change to college biology majors: The importance of preaching to the choir.

Ecology and evolution, 10(2):594-601 pii:ECE35960.

College and university biology majors who are not climate change deniers may yet be unaware of the degree of scientific consensus on climate change and unprepared to communicate about climate science to others. This study reports on a population of climate change accepting biology majors at a large, private research university in the American northeast. Our students tended to greatly underestimate the degree of scientific consensus around climate change, to be only moderately worried about climate change, and to be unconfident in their ability to communicate about the state of the scientific consensus around climate change. After an introduction to the scholarly literature that substantiates and quantifies the scientific consensus on climate change in the context of a course on biological research literature, our students showed significant increases in their estimates of the consensus on climate change, and their estimates were more accurate. Additionally, they became more worried about climate change as well as more confident in their ability to communicate about the scientific consensus to others. These results are in line with the Gateway Belief Model, which positions perception of scientific agreement on climate change as an important driver of acceptance and motivation toward action.


RJR Experience and Expertise


Robbins holds BS, MS, and PhD degrees in the life sciences. He served as a tenured faculty member in the Zoology and Biological Science departments at Michigan State University. He is currently exploring the intersection between genomics, microbial ecology, and biodiversity — an area that promises to transform our understanding of the biosphere.


Robbins has extensive experience in college-level education: At MSU he taught introductory biology, genetics, and population genetics. At JHU, he was an instructor for a special course on biological database design. At FHCRC, he team-taught a graduate-level course on the history of genetics. At Bellevue College he taught medical informatics.


Robbins has been involved in science administration at both the federal and the institutional levels. At NSF he was a program officer for database activities in the life sciences, at DOE he was a program officer for information infrastructure in the human genome project. At the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, he served as a vice president for fifteen years.


Robbins has been involved with information technology since writing his first Fortran program as a college student. At NSF he was the first program officer for database activities in the life sciences. At JHU he held an appointment in the CS department and served as director of the informatics core for the Genome Data Base. At the FHCRC he was VP for Information Technology.


While still at Michigan State, Robbins started his first publishing venture, founding a small company that addressed the short-run publishing needs of instructors in very large undergraduate classes. For more than 20 years, Robbins has been operating The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project, a web site dedicated to the digital publishing of critical works in science, especially classical genetics.


Robbins is well-known for his speaking abilities and is often called upon to provide keynote or plenary addresses at international meetings. For example, in July, 2012, he gave a well-received keynote address at the Global Biodiversity Informatics Congress, sponsored by GBIF and held in Copenhagen. The slides from that talk can be seen HERE.


Robbins is a skilled meeting facilitator. He prefers a participatory approach, with part of the meeting involving dynamic breakout groups, created by the participants in real time: (1) individuals propose breakout groups; (2) everyone signs up for one (or more) groups; (3) the groups with the most interested parties then meet, with reports from each group presented and discussed in a subsequent plenary session.


Robbins has been engaged with photography and design since the 1960s, when he worked for a professional photography laboratory. He now prefers digital photography and tools for their precision and reproducibility. He designed his first web site more than 20 years ago and he personally designed and implemented this web site. He engages in graphic design as a hobby.

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E-mail: RJR8222@gmail.com

Collection of publications by R J Robbins

Reprints and preprints of publications, slide presentations, instructional materials, and data compilations written or prepared by Robert Robbins. Most papers deal with computational biology, genome informatics, using information technology to support biomedical research, and related matters.

Research Gate page for R J Robbins

ResearchGate is a social networking site for scientists and researchers to share papers, ask and answer questions, and find collaborators. According to a study by Nature and an article in Times Higher Education , it is the largest academic social network in terms of active users.

Curriculum Vitae for R J Robbins

short personal version

Curriculum Vitae for R J Robbins

long standard version

RJR Picks from Around the Web (updated 11 MAY 2018 )