@article {pmid30448995, year = {2018}, author = {van Kerkhoff, L and Munera, C and Dudley, N and Guevara, O and Wyborn, C and Figueroa, C and Dunlop, M and Hoyos, MA and Castiblanco, J and Becerra, L}, title = {Towards future-oriented conservation: Managing protected areas in an era of climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-018-1121-0}, pmid = {30448995}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {P10002150//Luc Hoffmann Institute/ ; PO#2174//Luc Hoffmann Institute/ ; }, abstract = {Management of protected areas must adapt to climate impacts, and prepare for ongoing ecological transformation. Future-Proofing Conservation is a dialogue-based, multi-stakeholder learning process that supports conservation managers to consider the implications of climate change for governance and management. It takes participants through a series of conceptual transitions to identify new management options that are robust to a range of possible biophysical futures, and steps that they can take now to prepare for ecological transformation. We outline the Future-Proofing Conservation process, and demonstrate its application in a pilot programme in Colombia. This process can be applied and adapted to a wide range of climate adaptation contexts, to support practitioners in developing positive ways forward for management and decision-making. By acknowledging scientific uncertainty, considering social values, and rethinking the rules that shape conservation governance, participants can identify new strategies towards "future-oriented conservation" over the long term.}, }
@article {pmid30448655, year = {2018}, author = {Warnatzsch, EA and Reay, DS}, title = {Temperature and precipitation change in Malawi: Evaluation of CORDEX-Africa climate simulations for climate change impact assessments and adaptation planning.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {654}, number = {}, pages = {378-392}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.098}, pmid = {30448655}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Malawi is highlighted as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the effects of climate change. The large uncertainty around future climate change in the region remains a barrier to adaptation planning. Despite this high potential vulnerability, relatively little research has gone into determining how well available models represent this country's climate. This work therefore evaluates the ability of existing General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to hindcast climatic variables in Malawi at a resolution appropriate for climate change impact assessment and adaptation planning. We focus on monthly precipitation rate, and mean, maximum and minimum surface air temperature. This assessment compares available observed datasets against the outputs of six ERA-interim driven RCMs and 21 GCM-driven RCMs from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative, and the 11 GCMs which form their boundary conditions. It was found that the performance of the RCMs is highly influenced by their boundary conditions. None of the individual or ensemble RCMs or GCMs assessed in this paper correlate well with the observed datasets for any of the assessed climatic variables. While, they do simulate the trending change in temperature variables well, the simulated outputs for precipitation are highly divergent. Based on these findings we suggest that either the ensemble RCMs or ensemble GCMs would be suitable for understanding projected temperature trends, with the RCMs providing better spatial resolution. However, none of the assessed models provide certainty over future precipitation trends in Malawi. As such we suggest that impact assessments and adaptation plans in Malawi will need to be designed and tested against a range of future precipitation scenarios. To improve modelling for Malawi it is recommended that regional climate models be improved for higher spatial resolution and inclusion of the impacts from large water bodies, including Lake Malawi.}, }
@article {pmid30447580, year = {2018}, author = {Hălbac-Cotoară-Zamfir, R and Keesstra, S and Kalantari, Z}, title = {The impact of political, socio-economic and cultural factors on implementing environment friendly techniques for sustainable land management and climate change mitigation in Romania.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {654}, number = {}, pages = {418-429}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.160}, pmid = {30447580}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Throughout the history of Romania, political decisions, socio-economic measures, and cultural (traditional) characters have affected the implementation of environment friendly techniques (EFTs) policies. In the context of this paper, EFTs can be defined as solutions for the use of land resources aiming the increasing of goods for meeting the changing human needs and with neutral or positive environmental impact. Changes in the political regime have always had a visible impact on the EFTs issue in Romania. EFTs has gone through several major phases. The political impact on EFTs implementation mainly affected sustainable land management (SLM) and to a small extent, at the end of the communist era and partly during the capitalist period, climate change mitigation. Throughout history, the political factor has dominated and influenced the capacity of the EFTs implementation process in responding to socio-economic stimuli. In addition, quality of life, rural-urban and urban-rural migrations, poverty, education level, and climate change adaptation have had impacts on the status of EFTs according to governance and political reflections. The agrarian reforms from the last two centuries, based on socio-economic demands, have strongly influenced the capacity to implement EFTs both positively and negatively. However, the cultural factor was least affected by political and socio-economic changes as a stability factor in ensuring continued implementation of the EFTs. Currently, there is a strong need to reconsider EFTs as sustainability tools for Romanian agriculture that can cope with climate change and sustainable land management (SLM) demands. This paper presents a brief history of EFTs in Romania and their benefits in achieving SLM equilibrium, describing the impacts of political decisions, socio-economic measures, and cultural features on implementing ETFs policies.}, }
@article {pmid30446838, year = {2018}, author = {Sarun, S and Ghermandi, A and Sheela, AM and Justus, J and Vineetha, P}, title = {Climate change vulnerability in a tropical region based on environmental and socio-economic factors.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {190}, number = {12}, pages = {727}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-018-7095-3}, pmid = {30446838}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {The understanding of the regional and local dimensions of vulnerability due to climate change is essential to develop appropriate and targeted adaptation efforts. We assessed the local dimensions of vulnerability in the tropical state of Kerala, India, using a purposely developed vulnerability index, which accounts for both environmental and socio-economic factors. The large extents of coastal wetlands and lagoons and high concentration of mangrove forests make the state environmentally vulnerable. Low human development index, large population of socially deprived groups, which are dependent on the primary sector, and high population density make the state vulnerable from a socio-economic point of view. The present study investigates climate change vulnerability at the district level in the State of Kerala relying on a purposely developed composite vulnerability index that encompasses both socio-economic and environmental factors. The Kerala coast contains the socio-economically and ecologically most vulnerable regions, as demonstrated by a composite vulnerability index.}, }
@article {pmid30445333, year = {2018}, author = {Eekhout, J and de Vente, J}, title = {Assessing the effectiveness of Sustainable Land Management for large-scale climate change adaptation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {654}, number = {}, pages = {85-93}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.350}, pmid = {30445333}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change will strongly affect essential ecosystem services, like the provision of freshwater, food production, soil erosion and flood control. Sustainable Land Management (SLM) practices are increasingly promoted to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation, but there is lack of evidence at scales most relevant for policymaking. We evaluated the effectiveness of SLM in a large Mediterranean catchment where climate change is projected to significantly reduce water security. We show that the on-site and off-site impacts of climate change are almost entirely reversed by the large-scale implementation of SLM under moderate climate change conditions, characterized by limited reductions in annual precipitation but significant increased precipitation intensity. Under more extreme reductions of annual precipitation, SLM implementation reduces the impacts on water security, but cannot prevent significant increased plant water stress and reduced water availability. Under these conditions, additional adaptation measures are required considering their interactions and trade-offs regarding water security.}, }
@article {pmid30444929, year = {2018}, author = {He, W and Yang, JY and Qian, B and Drury, CF and Hoogenboom, G and He, P and Lapen, D and Zhou, W}, title = {Climate change impacts on crop yield, soil water balance and nitrate leaching in the semiarid and humid regions of Canada.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {e0207370}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0207370}, pmid = {30444929}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The impact of climate change on agricultural systems is a major concern as it can have a significant effect on the world food supply. The objective of this study was to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production and nitrate leaching in two distinct climatic zones in Canada. Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was selected for the semiarid regions of Western Canada (Swift Current, SK) and maize (Zea mays L.) was chosen for the more humid regions of central Canada (Woodslee, ON). Climate scenarios were based upon simulations from a Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and crop simulations were conducted using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. Compared to the baseline climate scenario, wheat yields increased by 8, 8, 11, 15%, whereas maize yields decreased by 15, 25, 22, 41% under RCP4.5 2050s (2041-2070), RCP4.5 2080s (2071-2100), RCP8.5 2050s and RCP8.5 2080s scenarios, respectively. Annual nitrate leaching increased by 19, 57, 73, 129% at Swift Current and by 84, 117, 208, 317% at Woodslee under the four scenarios, respectively. Adaptation measures suggested that fertilizer N rate for spring wheat should be increased to 80-100 kg N ha-1 to obtain optimal yields although this will result in an additional risk of 5-8 kg N ha-1 nitrate leaching at Swift Current. The fertilizer N rate of 150 kg N ha-1 was found to be suitable for high maize yields at Woodslee. New wheat and maize cultivars with long growing seasons would enable crop growth to match the phenological stage and hence maintain high crop yields to adapt to increased temperatures in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30444658, year = {2018}, author = {Wadgymar, SM and Mactavish, RM and Anderson, JT}, title = {Transgenerational and Within-Generation Plasticity in Response to Climate Change: Insights from a Manipulative Field Experiment across an Elevational Gradient.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {192}, number = {6}, pages = {698-714}, doi = {10.1086/700097}, pmid = {30444658}, issn = {1537-5323}, abstract = {Parental environmental effects-or transgenerational plasticity-can influence an individual's phenotype or fitness yet remain underexplored in the context of global change. Using the perennial self-pollinating plant Boechera stricta, we explored the effects of climate change on transgenerational and within-generation plasticity in dormancy, germination, growth, and survival. We first conducted a snow removal experiment in the field, in which we transplanted 16 families of known origin into three common gardens at different elevations and exposed half of the siblings to contemporary snow dynamics and half to early snow removal. We planted the offspring of these individuals in a factorial manipulation of temperature and water level in the growth chamber and reciprocally transplanted them across all parental environments in the field. The growth chamber experiment revealed that the effects of transgenerational plasticity persist in traits expressed after establishment, even when accounting for parental effects on seed mass. The field experiment showed that transgenerational and within-generation plasticity can interact and that plasticity varies clinally in populations distributed across elevations. These findings demonstrate that transgenerational plasticity can influence fitness-related traits and should be incorporated in studies of biological responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30443732, year = {2018}, author = {Douglass-Gallagher, E and Stuart, D}, title = {Crop Growers' Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: A Situated Study of Agriculture in Arizona's Verde Valley.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-018-1114-6}, pmid = {30443732}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Climate change will pose unprecedented challenges for agricultural producers globally, requiring the ability to adapt to new and unpredictable conditions. This study explores the adaptive capacity of crop growers in the Verde Valley, Arizona (US). Rather than examining pre-determined indicators of adaptive capacity, this study adopts a situated framework that examines material conditions, perceptions, and the larger social context. Interviewers used past experiences and future scenarios to allow factors that enhance or constrain adaptive capacity to emerge from the interviews. Findings reveal adaptation is site specific but general measures can be taken to enhance adaptive capacity. Encouraging diversity in crops and water sources, the use of drought and heat tolerant crops, and the use of water conservation practices will likely increase growers' adaptive capacity. In contrast, lack of support from organizations and government programs, lack of diverse crops and sources of water, lack of awareness about climate change, and growers' confidence in their ability to always adapt impairs adaptive capacity. Verde Valley growers will need increased support from local and national organizations to adapt to projected changes. The situated framework applied in this study reveals important insights and could be used to explore adaptive capacity in other agricultural regions.}, }
@article {pmid30442795, year = {2018}, author = {Klein, T and Hartmann, H}, title = {Climate change drives tree mortality.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6416}, pages = {758}, doi = {10.1126/science.aav6508}, pmid = {30442795}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid30440075, year = {2018}, author = {Hemmer, CJ and Emmerich, P and Loebermann, M and Frimmel, S and Reisinger, EC}, title = {[Mosquitoes and Ticks: The Influence of Global Warming in the Transmission of Infectious Diseases in Germany].}, journal = {Deutsche medizinische Wochenschrift (1946)}, volume = {143}, number = {23}, pages = {1714-1722}, doi = {10.1055/a-0653-6333}, pmid = {30440075}, issn = {1439-4413}, abstract = {During the last 135 years, the average temperature in Germany has increased by 1.4 °C. By 2050, a further rise by 1.5 °C is expected. This is associated with an increase of precipitation during the winter months. This climate change probably will improve both the growth conditions for mosquitoes and ticks, as well as their ability to transmit infectious diseases. Today, vectors that have not yet been present are invading into Germany. Among them is Aedes albopictus, which transmits Chikungunya, Zika, and Dengue Fever. Also, spreading of autochthonous malaria and West Nile Fever appear possible in Germany. Because of the increased presence of Phlebotomus species, leishmaniasis should be considered as a potential differential diagnosis in unclear hematologic diseases. Among the tick-borne diseases, climate change has already led to increased case numbers of Borreliosis and Tick Borne Encephalitis (TBE), and Crimean Congo Virus is spreading from the Balkan region towards Central Europe. This requires physicians to consider additional differential diagnoses in febrile illnesses.}, }
@article {pmid30430701, year = {2018}, author = {Varela, MR and Patrício, AR and Anderson, K and Broderick, AC and DeBell, L and Hawkes, LA and Tilley, D and Snape, RTE and Westoby, MJ and Godley, BJ}, title = {Assessing climate change associated sea level rise impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches using drones, photogrammetry and a novel GPS system.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14526}, pmid = {30430701}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change associated sea level rise (SLR) is expected to have profound impacts on coastal areas, affecting many species including sea turtles which depend on these habitats for egg incubation. Being able to accurately model beach topography using digital terrain models (DTMs) is therefore crucial to project SLR impacts and develop effective conservation strategies. Traditional survey methods are typically low-cost with low accuracy or high-cost with high accuracy. We present a novel combination of drone-based photogrammetry and a low-cost and portable real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS to create DTMs which are highly accurate (<10 cm error) and visually realistic. This methodology is ideal for surveying coastal sites, can be broadly applied to other species and habitats, and is a relevant tool in supporting the development of Specially Protected Areas. Here we applied this method as a case-study to project three SLR scenarios (0.48, 0.63 and 1.20 m) and assess the future vulnerability and viability of a key nesting habitat for sympatric loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green turtle (Chelonia mydas) at a key rookery in the Mediterranean. We combined the DTM with 5 years of nest survey data describing location and clutch depth, to identify (1) regions with highest nest densities, (2) nest elevation by species and beach, and (3) estimated proportion of nests inundated under each SLR scenario. On average, green turtles nested at higher elevations than loggerheads (1.8 m vs. 1.32 m, respectively). However, because green turtles dig deeper nests than loggerheads (0.76 m vs. 0.50 m, respectively), these were at similar risk of inundation. For a SLR of 1.2 m, we estimated a loss of 67.3% for loggerhead turtle nests and 59.1% for green turtle nests. Existing natural and artificial barriers may affect the ability of these nesting habitats to remain suitable for nesting through beach migration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30429613, year = {2018}, author = {Fadrique, B and Báez, S and Duque, Á and Malizia, A and Blundo, C and Carilla, J and Osinaga-Acosta, O and Malizia, L and Silman, M and Farfán-Ríos, W and Malhi, Y and Young, KR and Cuesta C, F and Homeier, J and Peralvo, M and Pinto, E and Jadan, O and Aguirre, N and Aguirre, Z and Feeley, KJ}, title = {Widespread but heterogeneous responses of Andean forests to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0715-9}, pmid = {30429613}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Global warming is forcing many species to shift their distributions upward, causing consequent changes in the compositions of species that occur at specific locations. This prediction remains largely untested for tropical trees. Here we show, using a database of nearly 200 Andean forest plot inventories spread across more than 33.5° latitude (from 26.8° S to 7.1° N) and 3,000-m elevation (from 360 to 3,360 m above sea level), that tropical and subtropical tree communities are experiencing directional shifts in composition towards having greater relative abundances of species from lower, warmer elevations. Although this phenomenon of 'thermophilization' is widespread throughout the Andes, the rates of compositional change are not uniform across elevations. The observed heterogeneity in thermophilization rates is probably because of different warming rates and/or the presence of specialized tree communities at ecotones (that is, at the transitions between distinct habitats, such as at the timberline or at the base of the cloud forest). Understanding the factors that determine the directions and rates of compositional changes will enable us to better predict, and potentially mitigate, the effects of climate change on tropical forests.}, }
@article {pmid30428540, year = {2018}, author = {Zhao, C and Chen, J and Du, P and Yuan, H}, title = {Characteristics of Climate Change and Extreme Weather from 1951 to 2011 in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15112540}, pmid = {30428540}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {2018YFC0806900//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 71790613//Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {It has been demonstrated that climate change is an established fact. A good comprehension of climate and extreme weather variation characteristics on a temporal and a spatial scale is important for adaptation and response. In this work, the characteristics of temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather distribution and variation is summarized for a period of 60 years and the seasonal fluctuation of temperature and precipitation is also analyzed. The results illustrate the reduction in daily and annual temperature divergence on both temporal and spatial scales. However, the gaps remain relatively significant. Furthermore, the disparity in daily and annual precipitation are found to be increasing on both temporal and spatial scales. The findings indicate that climate change, to a certain extent, narrowed the temperature gap while widening the precipitation gap on temporal and spatial scales in China.}, }
@article {pmid30426378, year = {2018}, author = {Fang, J and Lau, CKM and Lu, Z and Wu, W and Zhu, L}, title = {Natural disasters, climate change, and their impact on inclusive wealth in G20 countries.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-3634-2}, pmid = {30426378}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {16BJY052//The National Social Science Fund of China/ ; }, abstract = {This paper uses the 1990-2010 natural disaster and carbon emission data of G20 countries to examine the impact of natural disasters and climate change on the natural capital component of inclusive wealth. Our study shows that climate change and GDP have no positive impacts on the growth of natural capital. By contrast, trade openness and natural disaster frequency contribute to the accumulation of natural capital in G20 countries. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the growth of natural capital and the magnitude of natural disaster. Natural capital growth is not affected very much by small disasters. By contrast, large disasters tend to make the growth of natural capital fall sharply.}, }
@article {pmid30419441, year = {2018}, author = {Makate, C and Makate, M and Mango, N and Siziba, S}, title = {Increasing resilience of smallholder farmers to climate change through multiple adoption of proven climate-smart agriculture innovations. Lessons from Southern Africa.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {231}, number = {}, pages = {858-868}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.069}, pmid = {30419441}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Conservation agriculture, drought tolerant maize, and improved legume varieties are key climate change management strategies for smallholder farmers in southern Africa. Their complementary efforts in adaptation to climate change are sternly important for farm productivity and income. This study evaluates factors explaining individual and multiple adoption of climate change management strategies and their differential impacts on productivity and income using a sample of 1172 smallholder farmers from Malawi and Zimbabwe. The study employs multinomial logistic regression to evaluate factors of individual and multiple adoption and regression adjustment with inverse probability weighting to evaluate impacts of the different adoption regimes on farm productivity and income. The results show that multiple adoption of innovations is mostly explained by access to key resources (credit, income and information), level of education and size of land owned by the farmer. More so, the concurrent adoption of conservation agriculture, stress adapted legume varieties and drought tolerant maize has far greater dividends on productivity and income than when considered individually. However, impacts of multiple adoption of the practices are not entirely uniform across different geographic regions and gender. Results suggest that effective institutional and policy efforts targeted towards reducing resource constraints that inhibit farmers' capacity to adopt complementary climate-smart agriculture packages such as conservation agriculture, drought tolerant maize and improved legume varieties must be gender sensitive and context specific.}, }
@article {pmid30418152, year = {2018}, author = {Zohner, CM and Mo, L and Renner, SS}, title = {Global warming reduces leaf-out and flowering synchrony among individuals.}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.7554/eLife.40214}, pmid = {30418152}, issn = {2050-084X}, abstract = {The temporal overlap of phenological stages, phenological synchrony, crucially influences ecosystem functioning. For flowering, among-individual synchrony influences gene flow. For leaf-out, it affects interactions with herbivores and competing plants. If individuals differ in their reaction to the ongoing change in global climate, this should affect population-level synchrony. Here, we use climate-manipulation experiments, Pan-European long-term (>15 years) observations, and common garden monitoring data on up to 72 woody and herbaceous species to study the effects of increasing temperatures on the extent of leaf-out and flowering synchrony within populations. Warmer temperatures reduce in situ leaf-out and flowering synchrony by up to 55%, and experiments on European beech provide a mechanism for how individual differences in day-length and/or chilling sensitivity may explain this finding. The rapid loss of reproductive and vegetative synchrony in European plants predicts changes in their gene flow and trophic interactions, but community-wide consequences remain largely unknown.<br><br>Editorial note: This article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter).}, }
@article {pmid30417977, year = {2018}, author = {Jarić, I and Lennox, RJ and Kalinkat, G and Cvijanović, G and Radinger, J}, title = {Susceptibility of European freshwater fish to climate change: species profiling based on life-history and environmental characteristics.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14518}, pmid = {30417977}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to strongly affect freshwater fish communities. Combined with other anthropogenic drivers, the impacts may alter species spatio-temporal distributions, and contribute to population declines and local extinctions. To provide timely management and conservation of fishes, it is relevant to identify species that will be most impacted by climate change and those that will be resilient. Species traits are considered a promising source of information on characteristics that influence resilience to various environmental conditions and impacts. To this end, we collated life history traits and climatic niches of 443 European freshwater fish species and compared those identified as susceptible to climate change to those that are considered to be resilient. Significant differences were observed between the two groups in their distribution, life-history and climatic niche, with climate-change susceptible species being distributed within the Mediterranean region, and being characterized by greater threat levels, lesser commercial relevance, lower vulnerability to fishing, smaller body and range size, and warmer thermal envelopes. Based on our results, we establish a list of species of highest priority for further research and monitoring regarding climate change susceptibility within Europe. The presented approach represents a promising tool to efficiently assess large groups of species regarding their susceptibility to climate change and other threats, and to identify research and management priorities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30414338, year = {2018}, author = {Coleman, MA and Butcherine, P and Kelaher, BP and Broadhurst, MK and March, DT and Provost, EJ and David, J and Benkendorff, K}, title = {Climate change does not affect seafood quality of a common targeted fish.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14513}, pmid = {30414338}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change can affect marine and estuarine fish via alterations to their distributions, abundances, sizes, physiology and ecological interactions, threatening the provision of ecosystem goods and services. While we have an emerging understanding of such ecological impacts to fish, we know little about the potential influence of climate change on the provision of nutritional seafood to sustain human populations. In particular, the quantity, quality and/or taste of seafood may be altered by future environmental changes with implications for the economic viability of fisheries. In an orthogonal mesocosm experiment, we tested the influence of near-future ocean warming and acidification on the growth, health and seafood quality of a recreationally and economically important fish, yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus australis). The growth of yellowfin bream significantly increased under near-future temperature conditions (but not acidification), with little change in health (blood glucose and haematocrit) or tissue biochemistry and nutritional properties (fatty acids, lipids, macro-and micronutrients, moisture, ash, and total N). Yellowfin bream appear to be highly resilient to predicted near-future ocean climate change, which might be facilitated by their broad spatio-temporal distribution across habitats and broad diet. Moreover, an increase in growth, but little change in tissue quality, suggests that near-future ocean conditions will benefit fisheries and fishers that target yellowfin bream. The data reiterate the inherent resilience of yellowfin bream as an evolutionary consequence of their euryhaline status in often environmentally challenging habitats, and imply their sustainable and viable fisheries into the future.We contend that widely-distributed species that span large geographic areas and habitats can be &quot;climate-winners&quot; by being resilient to negative direct impacts of near-future oceanic and estuarine climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30413121, year = {2018}, author = {Gao, X and Wang, A and Zhao, Y and Zhao, X and Sun, M and Du, J and Gang, C}, title = {Study on Water Suitability of Apple Plantations in the Loess Plateau under Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15112504}, pmid = {30413121}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {With the implementation of the Grain for Green Project, the apple plantation area is increasing in Loess Plateau. However, due to severe water scarcity, the sustainability of apple tree growth is threatened. In this paper, we used meteorological data (1990⁻2013) and forecasted climate data (2019⁻2050) to estimate water demand and establish a water suitability model to study the water balance between available water and water consumption of the apple trees. The results show that: (i) the order of the average water demand of apple plantation in each subarea is Shaanxi Province > Yuncheng area > Gansu Province > Sanmenxia Region, ranging from 500 to 950 mm; (ii) the temporal variability of water suitability from 1990 to 2013 is large, and the higher values are concentrated in the late growth stage of the apple trees and the lower values are concentrated in the early growth stage; (iii) the temporal and spatial distribution of water suitability is relatively stable and even in the Loess Plateau in the period of 2019⁻2050; (iv) the water suitability is mainly affected by effective precipitation and reference evapotranspiration and the reference evapotranspiration is mainly affected by the solar radiation (36%) and average temperature (38%). Furthermore, due to the joint influence of precipitation increases and solar radiation (average temperature) increases, the future water suitability of the apple plantation area in the Loess Plateau is showing a non-significant downward trend under RCP4.5 scenario.}, }
@article {pmid30412888, year = {2018}, author = {Op de Hipt, F and Diekkrüger, B and Steup, G and Yira, Y and Hoffmann, T and Rode, M and Näschen, K}, title = {Modeling the effect of land use and climate change on water resources and soil erosion in a tropical West African catch-ment (Dano, Burkina Faso) using SHETRAN.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {653}, number = {}, pages = {431-445}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.351}, pmid = {30412888}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study investigates the effect of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate change on catchment hydrology and soil erosion in the Dano catchment in south-western Burkina Faso based on hydrological and soil erosion modeling. The past LULC change is studied using land use maps of the years 1990, 2000, 2007 and 2013. Based on these maps future LULC scenarios were developed for the years 2019, 2025 and 2030. The observed past and modeled future LULC are used to feed SHETRAN, a hydrological and soil erosion model. Observed and modeled climate data cover the period 1990-2030. The isolated influence of LULC change assuming a constant climate is simulated by applying the seven LULC maps under observed climate data of the period 1990-2015. The isolated effect of climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5 of CCLM4-8) is studied by applying the LULC map of 1990 to the period 1990-2032. Additionally, we combined past modeled climate data and past observed LULC maps. Two chronological and continuous simulations were used to estimate the impact of LULC in the past and in the future by gradually applying the LULC maps. These simulations consider the combined impact of LULC and climate change. The simulations that assumed a constant climate and a changing LULC show increasing water yield (3.6%-46.5%) and mainly increasing specific sediment yield (-3.3%-52.6%). The simulations that assume constant LULC and climate as changing factor indicate increases in water yield of 24.5% to 46.7% and in sediment yield of 31.1% to 54.7% between the periods 1990-2005 and 2006-2032. The continuous simulations signal a clear increase in water yield (20.3%-73.4%) and specific sediment yield (24.7% to 90.1%). Actual evapotranspiration is estimated to change by between -7.3% (only LUCC) to +3.3% (only climate change). When comparing observed LULC and climate change alone, climate change has a larger impact on discharge and sediment yield, but LULC amplifies climate change impacts strongly. However, future LULC (2019-2030) will have a stronger impact as currently observed.}, }
@article {pmid30409881, year = {2018}, author = {Kubelka, V and Šálek, M and Tomkovich, P and Végvári, Z and Freckleton, RP and Székely, T}, title = {Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6415}, pages = {680-683}, doi = {10.1126/science.aat8695}, pmid = {30409881}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Ongoing climate change is thought to disrupt trophic relationships, with consequences for complex interspecific interactions, yet the effects of climate change on species interactions are poorly understood, and such effects have not been documented at a global scale. Using a single database of 38,191 nests from 237 populations, we found that shorebirds have experienced a worldwide increase in nest predation over the past 70 years. Historically, there existed a latitudinal gradient in nest predation, with the highest rates in the tropics; however, this pattern has been recently reversed in the Northern Hemisphere, most notably in the Arctic. This increased nest predation is consistent with climate-induced shifts in predator-prey relationships.}, }
@article {pmid30409435, year = {2018}, author = {Godin-Beekmann, S}, title = {[Impact of climate change and ozone layer evolution on surface ultraviolet radiation].}, journal = {Annales de dermatologie et de venereologie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.annder.2018.09.159}, pmid = {30409435}, issn = {0151-9638}, }
@article {pmid30408274, year = {2018}, author = {Bryndum-Buchholz, A and Tittensor, DP and Blanchard, JL and Cheung, WWL and Coll, M and Galbraith, ED and Jennings, S and Maury, O and Lotze, HK}, title = {21st century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14512}, pmid = {30408274}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15-30% (±12-17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20-80% (±35-200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30408266, year = {2018}, author = {Salas, RN and Slutzman, JE and Sorensen, C and Lemery, J and Hess, JJ}, title = {Climate Change and Health: An Urgent Call to Academic Emergency Medicine.}, journal = {Academic emergency medicine : official journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/acem.13657}, pmid = {30408266}, issn = {1553-2712}, abstract = {There is consensus among 97% of scientists that anthropogenic climate change is occurring and international agreement of the grave threat it poses.1,2 A Lancet Commission declared climate change &quot;the biggest global health threat of the 21st century&quot; with &quot;potentially catastrophic risk to human health.&quot;3,4 Emergency medicine (EM) is already on the frontlines as climate change directly affects our patients, clinical practice, and emergency departments (EDs). This presents EM with a profound leadership opportunity to join our colleagues in the house of medicine to improve health and save lives. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30408043, year = {2018}, author = {Montero, N and Dei Marcovaldi, MAG and Lopez-Mendilaharsu, M and Santos, AS and Santos, AJB and Fuentes, MMPB}, title = {Warmer and wetter conditions will reduce offspring production of hawksbill turtles in Brazil under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {e0204188}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0204188}, pmid = {30408043}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to impact animals that are heavily reliant on environmental factors, such as sea turtles, since the incubation of their eggs, hatching success and sex ratio are influenced by the environment in which eggs incubate. As climate change progresses it is therefore important to understand how climatic conditions influence their reproductive output and the ramifications to population stability. Here, we examined the influences of five climatic variables (air temperature, accumulated and average precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at different temporal scales on hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) hatchling production at ten nesting beaches within two regions of Brazil (five nesting beaches in Rio Grande do Norte and five in Bahia). Air temperature and accumulated precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hawksbill hatching success (number of eggs hatched within a nest) across Brazil and in Rio Grande do Norte, while air temperature and average precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hatching success at Bahia. Solar radiation was the main climatic driver of emergence success (number of hatchlings that emerged from total hatched eggs within a nest) at both regions. Warmer temperatures and higher solar radiation had negative effects on hatchling production, while wetter conditions had a positive effect. Conservative and extreme climate scenarios show air temperatures are projected to increase at this site, while precipitation projections vary between scenarios and regions throughout the 21st century. We predicted hatching success of undisturbed nests (no recorded depredation or storm-related impacts) will decrease in Brazil by 2100 as a result of how this population is influenced by local climate. This study shows the determining effects of different climate variables and their combinations on an important and critically endangered marine species.}, }
@article {pmid30408029, year = {2018}, author = {Alexander, KA and Heaney, AK and Shaman, J}, title = {Hydrometeorology and flood pulse dynamics drive diarrheal disease outbreaks and increase vulnerability to climate change in surface-water-dependent populations: A retrospective analysis.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {e1002688}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002688}, pmid = {30408029}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impacts of climate change on surface water, waterborne disease, and human health remain a growing area of concern, particularly in Africa, where diarrheal disease is one of the most important health threats to children under 5 years of age. Little is known about the role of surface water and annual flood dynamics (flood pulse) on waterborne disease and human health nor about the expected impact of climate change on surface-water-dependent populations.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the Chobe River in northern Botswana, a flood pulse river-floodplain system, we applied multimodel inference approaches assessing the influence of river height, water quality (bimonthly counts of Escherichia coli and total suspended solids [TSS], 2011-2017), and meteorological variability on weekly diarrheal case reports among children under 5 presenting to health facilities (n = 10 health facilities, January 2007-June 2017). We assessed diarrheal cases by clinical characteristics and season across age groups using monthly outpatient data (January 1998-June 2017). A strong seasonal pattern was identified, with 2 outbreaks occurring regularly in the wet and dry seasons. The timing of outbreaks diverged from that at the level of the country, where surface water is largely absent. Across age groups, the number of diarrheal cases was greater, on average, during the dry season. Demographic and clinical characteristics varied by season, underscoring the importance of environmental drivers. In the wet season, rainfall (8-week lag) had a significant influence on under-5 diarrhea, with a 10-mm increase in rainfall associated with an estimated 6.5% rise in the number of cases. Rainfall, minimum temperature, and river height were predictive of E. coli concentration, and increases in E. coli in the river were positively associated with diarrheal cases. In the dry season, river height (1-week lag) and maximum temperature (1- and 4-week lag) were significantly associated with diarrheal cases. During this period, a 1-meter drop in river height corresponded to an estimated 16.7% and 16.1% increase in reported diarrhea with a 1- and 4-week lag, respectively. In this region, as floodwaters receded from the surrounding floodplains, TSS levels increased and were positively associated with diarrheal cases (0- and 3-week lag). Populations living in this region utilized improved water sources, suggesting that hydrological variability and rapid water quality shifts in surface waters may compromise water treatment processes. Limitations include the potential influence of health beliefs and health seeking behaviors on data obtained through passive surveillance.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In flood pulse river-floodplain systems, hydrology and water quality dynamics can be highly variable, potentially impacting conventional water treatment facilities and the production of safe drinking water. In Southern Africa, climate change is predicted to intensify hydrological variability and the frequency of extreme weather events, amplifying the public health threat of waterborne disease in surface-water-dependent populations. Water sector development should be prioritized with urgency, incorporating technologies that are robust to local environmental conditions and expected climate-driven impacts. In populations with high HIV burdens, expansion of diarrheal disease surveillance and intervention strategies may also be needed. As annual flood pulse processes are predominantly influenced by climate controls in distant regions, country-level data may be inadequate to refine predictions of climate-health interactions in these systems.}, }
@article {pmid30406962, year = {2018}, author = {Esquivel-Muelbert, A and Baker, TR and Dexter, KG and Lewis, SL and Brienen, RJW and Feldpausch, TR and Lloyd, J and Monteagudo-Mendoza, A and Arroyo, L and Álvarez-Dávila, E and Higuchi, N and Marimon, BS and Marimon-Junior, BH and Silveira, M and Vilanova, E and Gloor, E and Malhi, Y and Chave, J and Barlow, J and Bonal, D and Davila Cardozo, N and Erwin, T and Fauset, S and Hérault, B and Laurance, S and Poorter, L and Qie, L and Stahl, C and Sullivan, MJP and Ter Steege, H and Vos, VA and Zuidema, PA and Almeida, E and Almeida de Oliveira, E and Andrade, A and Vieira, SA and Aragão, L and Araujo-Murakami, A and Arets, E and Aymard C, GA and Camargo, PB and Barroso, JG and Bongers, F and Boot, R and Camargo, JL and Castro, W and Chama Moscoso, V and Comiskey, J and Cornejo Valverde, F and Lola da Costa, AC and Del Aguila Pasquel, J and Di Fiore, T and Fernanda Duque, L and Elias, F and Engel, J and Flores Llampazo, G and Galbraith, D and Herrera Fernández, R and Honorio Coronado, E and Hubau, W and Jimenez-Rojas, E and Lima, AJN and Umetsu, RK and Laurance, W and Lopez-Gonzalez, G and Lovejoy, T and Aurelio Melo Cruz, O and Morandi, PS and Neill, D and Núñez Vargas, P and Pallqui, NC and Parada Gutierrez, A and Pardo, G and Peacock, J and Peña-Claros, M and Peñuela-Mora, MC and Petronelli, P and Pickavance, GC and Pitman, N and Prieto, A and Quesada, C and Ramírez-Angulo, H and Réjou-Méchain, M and Restrepo Correa, Z and Roopsind, A and Rudas, A and Salomão, R and Silva, N and Silva Espejo, J and Singh, J and Stropp, J and Terborgh, J and Thomas, R and Toledo, M and Torres-Lezama, A and Valenzuela Gamarra, L and van de Meer, PJ and van der Heijden, G and van der Hout, P and Vasquez Martinez, R and Vela, C and Vieira, ICG and Phillips, OL}, title = {Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14413}, pmid = {30406962}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NE/N004655/1//Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; //NERC Consortium Grants &quot;AMAZONICA&quot;/ ; //BIO-RED/ ; //European Research Council (ERC)/ ; //The Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation/ ; 282664//European Union's Seventh Framework Programme/ ; CH160091//Royal Society/ ; //Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award/ ; }, abstract = {Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large-statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry-affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet-affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry-affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate-change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole-community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large-statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30405277, year = {2018}, author = {Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Guo, Y and Sera, F and Huber, V and Schleussner, CF and Mitchell, D and Tong, S and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M and Saldiva, PHN and Lavigne, E and Correa, PM and Ortega, NV and Kan, H and Osorio, S and Kyselý, J and Urban, A and Jaakkola, JJK and Ryti, NRI and Pascal, M and Goodman, PG and Zeka, A and Michelozzi, P and Scortichini, M and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y and Hurtado-Diaz, M and Cruz, J and Seposo, X and Kim, H and Tobias, A and Íñiguez, C and Forsberg, B and Åström, DO and Ragettli, MS and Röösli, M and Guo, YL and Wu, CF and Zanobetti, A and Schwartz, J and Bell, ML and Dang, TN and Van, DD and Heaviside, C and Vardoulakis, S and Hajat, S and Haines, A and Armstrong, B and Ebi, KL and Gasparrini, A}, title = {Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {150}, number = {3-4}, pages = {391-402}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3}, pmid = {30405277}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to Bhold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C&quot;. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.}, }
@article {pmid30404727, year = {2018}, author = {Obradovich, N and Migliorini, R}, title = {Sleep and the human impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Sleep medicine reviews}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.smrv.2018.09.002}, pmid = {30404727}, issn = {1532-2955}, }
@article {pmid30402535, year = {2018}, author = {d'Alpoim Guedes, J and Bocinsky, RK}, title = {Climate change stimulated agricultural innovation and exchange across Asia.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {10}, pages = {eaar4491}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aar4491}, pmid = {30402535}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Ancient farmers experienced climate change at the local level through variations in the yields of their staple crops. However, archaeologists have had difficulty in determining where, when, and how changes in climate affected ancient farmers. We model how several key transitions in temperature affected the productivity of six grain crops across Eurasia. Cooling events between 3750 and 3000 cal. BP lead humans in parts of the Tibetan Plateau and in Central Asia to diversify their crops. A second event at 2000 cal. BP leads farmers in central China to also diversify their cropping systems and to develop systems that allowed transport of grains from southern to northern China. In other areas where crop returns fared even worse, humans reduced their risk by increasing investment in nomadic pastoralism and developing long-distance networks of trade. By translating changes in climatic variables into factors that mattered to ancient farmers, we situate the adaptive strategies they developed to deal with variance in crop returns in the context of environmental and climatic changes.}, }
@article {pmid30402056, year = {2018}, author = {Bezeng, BS and Tesfamichael, SG and Dayananda, B and , }, title = {Predicting the effect of climate change on a range-restricted lizard in southeastern Australia.}, journal = {Current zoology}, volume = {64}, number = {2}, pages = {165-171}, doi = {10.1093/cz/zox021}, pmid = {30402056}, issn = {1674-5507}, abstract = {Climate change is ranked as one of the most severe threats to global biodiversity. This global phenomenon is particularly true for reptiles whose biology and ecology are closely linked to climate. In this study, we used over 1,300 independent occurrence points and different climate change emission scenarios to evaluate the potential risk of changing climatic conditions on the current and future potential distribution of a rock-dwelling lizard; the velvet gecko. Furthermore, we investigated if the current extent of protected area networks in Australia captures the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Our results show that climate change projections for the year 2075 have the potential to alter the distribution of the velvet gecko in southeastern Australia. Specifically, climate change may favor the range expansion of this species to encompass more suitable habitats. The trend of range expansion was qualitatively similar across the different climate change scenarios used. Additionally, we observed that the current network of protected areas in southeast Australia does not fully account for the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Ongoing climate change may profoundly affect the potential range distribution of the velvet gecko population. Therefore, the restricted habitat of the velvet geckos should be the focus of intensive pre-emptive management efforts. This management prioritization should be extended to encompass the increases in suitable habitats observed in this study in order to maximize the microhabitats available for the survival of this species.}, }
@article {pmid30401921, year = {2018}, author = {Bauduin, S and McIntire, E and St-Laurent, MH and Cumming, SG}, title = {Compensatory conservation measures for an endangered caribou population under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {16438}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-34822-9}, pmid = {30401921}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Future human land use and climate change may disrupt movement behaviors of terrestrial animals, thereby altering the ability of individuals to move across a landscape. Some of the expected changes result from processes whose effects will be difficult to alter, such as global climate change. We present a novel framework in which we use models to (1) identify the ecological changes from these difficult-to-alter processes, as well as (2) the potential conservation measures that are best able to compensate for these changes. We illustrated this framework with the case of an endangered caribou population in Québec, Canada. We coupled a spatially explicit individual-based movement model with a range of landscape scenarios to assess the impacts of varying degrees of climate change, and the ability of conservation actions to compensate for such impacts on caribou movement behaviors. We found that (1) climate change impacts reduced movement potential, and that (2) the complete restoration of secondary roads inside protected areas was able to fully offset this reduction, suggesting that road restoration would be an effective compensatory conservation action. By evaluating conservation actions via landscape use simulated by an individual-based model, we were able to identify compensatory conservation options for an endangered species facing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30400337, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, GJ and Bergquist, R}, title = {Potential Impact of Climate Change on Schistosomiasis: A Global Assessment Attempt.}, journal = {Tropical medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/tropicalmed3040117}, pmid = {30400337}, issn = {2414-6366}, abstract = {Based on an ensemble of global circulation models (GCMs), four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and several ongoing and planned Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global, average temperatures will increase by at least 1.5 °C in the near future and more by the end of the century if greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions are not genuinely tempered. While the RCPs are indicative of various amounts of GHGs in the atmosphere the CMIPs are designed to improve the workings of the GCMs. We chose RCP4.5 which represented a medium GHG emission increase and CMIP5, the most recently completed CMIP phase. Combining this meteorological model with a biological counterpart model accounted for replication and survival of the snail intermediate host as well as maturation of the parasite stage inside the snail at different ambient temperatures. The potential geographical distribution of the three main schistosome species: Schistosoma japonicum, S.mansoni and S.haematobium was investigated with reference to their different transmission capabilities at the monthly mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month(s) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month(s). The set of six maps representing the predicted situations in 2021⁻2050 and 2071⁻2100 for each species mainly showed increased transmission areas for all three species but they also left room for potential shrinkages in certain areas.}, }
@article {pmid30398569, year = {2018}, author = {Clearfield, M and Davis, G and Weis, J and Gayer, G and Shubrook, JH}, title = {Cardiovascular Disease as a Result of the Interactions Between Obesity, Climate Change, and Inflammation: The COCCI Syndemic.}, journal = {The Journal of the American Osteopathic Association}, volume = {118}, number = {11}, pages = {719-729}, doi = {10.7556/jaoa.2018.157}, pmid = {30398569}, issn = {1945-1997}, abstract = {Obesity and climate change conspire to create an environment in which subclinical vascular inflammation leads to progressive atherosclerosis, which contributes to the number 1 cause of global mortality: cardiovascular disease. The syndemic model requires 2 or more diseases or contributors to disease (such as obesity and climate change) clustering within a specific population in addition to the associated societal and social factors, ultimately creating an environment supportive of a greater adverse interaction. This article explores the syndemic of obesity and climate change as a driver for cardiovascular disease.}, }
@article {pmid30395645, year = {2018}, author = {Jaime, R and Alcántara, JM and Manzaneda, AJ and Rey, PJ}, title = {Climate change decreases suitable areas for rapeseed cultivation in Europe but provides new opportunities for white mustard as an alternative oilseed for biofuel production.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {e0207124}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0207124}, pmid = {30395645}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Oilseed crops, including several mustards, are cultivated as biofuel sources worldwide. However, common mustard crops (e.g., the rapeseed Brassica napus) grow naturally in mesic temperate regions, which are expected to be impaired by global warming and increased aridity. In particular, increased aridity is predicted to reduce the oil concentration and seed yield of rapeseed crops. There is therefore an urgent need to identify alternative bioenergy crops that are preadapted to future climatic conditions. An alternative to conventional Brassica species for biodiesel production is the white mustard Sinapis alba, which is native to the circum-Mediterranean region and has a high seed lipid content. S. alba grows spontaneously in olive groves and other widespread Mediterranean crops; accordingly, it could be easily cultivated by companion planting to improve ecosystem function by decreasing soil loss, controlling microbial disease, and assisting in the maintenance of biodiversity. In this study, using species distribution modeling, we predicted climatically suitable areas for the cultivation of S. alba in Western Europe across the Mediterranean Basin under present climatic conditions and several climate change scenarios. We show that current climatically suitable areas for S. alba cultivation do not overlap with those for B. napus. Unlike B. napus, S. alba could be cultivated throughout most of the circum-Mediterranean region. According to our models, increases in aridity and annual mean temperatures will expand the climatically suitable areas for S. alba in the Mediterranean Basin. However, suitable areas for the cultivation of B. napus will decrease significantly in Western Europe. Our results indicate that S. alba is a strong, environmentally safe candidate for biofuel production throughout the Mediterranean Basin and other Western European countries, especially under climate change scenarios that are expected to impair current oilseed crops.}, }
@article {pmid30393928, year = {2018}, author = {Lehikoinen, P and Santangeli, A and Jaatinen, K and Rajasärkkä, A and Lehikoinen, A}, title = {Protected areas act as a buffer against detrimental effects of climate change-Evidence from large-scale, long-term abundance data.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14461}, pmid = {30393928}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {275606//Suomen Akatemia/ ; 283664//Suomen Akatemia/ ; 307909//Suomen Akatemia/ ; 201600187//Maj ja Tor Nesslingin Säätiö/ ; 201700195//Maj ja Tor Nesslingin Säätiö/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is driving species to shift their distributions toward high altitudes and latitudes, while habitat loss and fragmentation may hamper species ability to follow their climatic envelope. These two drivers of change may act in synergy, with particularly disastrous impacts on biodiversity. Protected areas, PAs, may thus represent crucial buffers against the compounded effects of climate change and habitat loss. However, large-scale studies assessing the performance of PAs as such buffers remain scarce and are largely based on species occurrence data. Conversely, abundance data have proven to be more reliable for addressing changes in wildlife populations under climate change. We evaluated changes in bird abundance from the 1970s-80s to the 2000s inside and outside PAs at the trailing range edge of 30 northern bird species and at the leading range edge of 70 southern species. Abundances of retracting northern species were higher and declined less inside PAs at their trailing range edge. The positive effect of PAs on bird abundances was particularly marked in northern species that rely strongly on PAs, that is, their density distribution is largely confined within PAs. These species were nearly absent outside PAs in the 2000s. The abundances of southern species were in general lower inside PAs and increased less from the 70s-80s to 2000s. Nonetheless, species with high reliance on PAs had much higher abundances inside than outside PAs in the 2000s. These results show that PAs are essential in mitigating the retraction of northern species, but also facilitate northward expansions of southern species highly reliant on PAs. Our study provides empirical evidence documenting the role of PAs in facilitating species to adjust to rapidly changing climatic conditions, thereby contributing to the mitigation of impending biodiversity loss. PAs may thus allow time for initiating wider conservation programs on currently unprotected land.}, }
@article {pmid30393451, year = {2018}, author = {Hamidov, A and Helming, K and Bellocchi, G and Bojar, W and Dalgaard, T and Ghaley, BB and Hoffmann, C and Holman, I and Holzkämper, A and Krzeminska, D and Kværnø, SH and Lehtonen, H and Niedrist, G and Øygarden, L and Reidsma, P and Roggero, PP and Rusu, T and Santos, C and Seddaiu, G and Skarbøvik, E and Ventrella, D and Żarski, J and Schönhart, M}, title = {Impacts of climate change adaptation options on soil functions: A review of European case-studies.}, journal = {Land degradation &amp; development}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {2378-2389}, doi = {10.1002/ldr.3006}, pmid = {30393451}, issn = {1099-145X}, abstract = {Soils are vital for supporting food security and other ecosystem services. Climate change can affect soil functions both directly and indirectly. Direct effects include temperature, precipitation, and moisture regime changes. Indirect effects include those that are induced by adaptations such as irrigation, crop rotation changes, and tillage practices. Although extensive knowledge is available on the direct effects, an understanding of the indirect effects of agricultural adaptation options is less complete. A review of 20 agricultural adaptation case-studies across Europe was conducted to assess implications to soil threats and soil functions and the link to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The major findings are as follows: (a) adaptation options reflect local conditions; (b) reduced soil erosion threats and increased soil organic carbon are expected, although compaction may increase in some areas; (c) most adaptation options are anticipated to improve the soil functions of food and biomass production, soil organic carbon storage, and storing, filtering, transforming, and recycling capacities, whereas possible implications for soil biodiversity are largely unknown; and (d) the linkage between soil functions and the SDGs implies improvements to SDG 2 (achieving food security and promoting sustainable agriculture) and SDG 13 (taking action on climate change), whereas the relationship to SDG 15 (using terrestrial ecosystems sustainably) is largely unknown. The conclusion is drawn that agricultural adaptation options, even when focused on increasing yields, have the potential to outweigh the negative direct effects of climate change on soil degradation in many European regions.}, }
@article {pmid30390399, year = {2018}, author = {Reside, AE and Critchell, K and Crayn, DM and Goosem, M and Goosem, S and Hoskin, CJ and Sydes, T and Vanderduys, EP and Pressey, RL}, title = {Beyond the model: expert knowledge improves predictions of species' fates under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1824}, pmid = {30390399}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {The need to proactively manage landscapes and species to aid their adaptation to climate change is widely acknowledged. Current approaches to prioritizing investment in species conservation generally rely on correlative models, which predict the likely fate of species under different climate change scenarios. Yet, while model statistics can be improved by refining modelling techniques, gaps remain in understanding the relationship between model performance and ecological reality. To investigate this we compared standard correlative species distribution models to highly accurate, fine-scale distribution models. We critically assessed the ecological realism of each species' model, using expert knowledge of the geography and habitat in the study area and the biology of the study species. Using interactive software and an iterative vetting with experts, we identified seven general principles that explain why the distribution modelling under- or over-estimated habitat suitability, under both current and predicted future climates. Importantly, we found that, while temperature estimates can be dramatically improved through better climate downscaling, many models still inaccurately reflected moisture availability. Furthermore, the correlative models did not account for biotic factors such as disease or competitor species, and were unable to account for the likely presence of micro refugia. Under-performing current models resulted in widely divergent future projections of species' distributions. Expert vetting identified regions that were likely to contain micro refugia, even where the fine-scale future projections of species distributions predicted population losses. Based on the results we identify four priority conservation actions required for more effective climate change adaptation responses. This approach to improving the ecological realism of correlative models to understand climate change impacts on species can be applied broadly to improve the evidence base underpinning management responses. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30385868, year = {2018}, author = {Lim, YK and Schubert, SD and Kovach, R and Molod, AM and Pawson, S}, title = {The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {16172}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-34343-5}, pmid = {30385868}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; 802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; 802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; 802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; 802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; }, abstract = {The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 °C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 °C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.}, }
@article {pmid30385766, year = {2018}, author = {Hummel, M and Hallahan, BF and Brychkova, G and Ramirez-Villegas, J and Guwela, V and Chataika, B and Curley, E and McKeown, PC and Morrison, L and Talsma, EF and Beebe, S and Jarvis, A and Chirwa, R and Spillane, C}, title = {Reduction in nutritional quality and growing area suitability of common bean under climate change induced drought stress in Africa.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {16187}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-33952-4}, pmid = {30385766}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {CropBioFort project funded by the Irish Research Council&amp;#x2019;s New Foundations program//Irish Research Council/ ; GOIPG/2014/1021//Irish Research Council/ ; GOIPG/2014/1021 and the CropBioFort project//Irish Research Council/ ; 13/IA/1820//Science Foundation Ireland (SFI)/ ; 13/IA/1820//Science Foundation Ireland (SFI)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts on food security will involve negative impacts on crop yields, and potentially on the nutritional quality of staple crops. Common bean is the most important grain legume staple crop for human diets and nutrition worldwide. We demonstrate by crop modeling that the majority of current common bean growing areas in southeastern Africa will become unsuitable for bean cultivation by the year 2050. We further demonstrate reductions in yields of available common bean varieties in a field trial that is a climate analogue site for future predicted drought conditions. Little is known regarding the impact of climate change induced abiotic stresses on the nutritional quality of common beans. Our analysis of nutritional and antinutritional compounds reveals that iron levels in common bean grains are reduced under future climate-scenario relevant drought stress conditions. In contrast, the levels of protein, zinc, lead and phytic acid increase in the beans under such drought stress conditions. This indicates that under climate-change induced drought scenarios, future bean servings by 2050 will likely have lower nutritional quality, posing challenges for ongoing climate-proofing of bean production for yields, nutritional quality, human health, and food security.}, }
@article {pmid30380686, year = {2018}, author = {Bishop-Williams, KE and Berrang-Ford, L and Sargeant, JM and Pearl, DL and Lwasa, S and Namanya, DB and Edge, VL and Cunsolo, A and ,  and ,  and Huang, Y and Ford, J and Garcia, P and Harper, SL}, title = {Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15112402}, pmid = {30380686}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {X//Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Canada ; X//National Sciences and Engineering Council (Canada)/ ; X//Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (Canada)/ ; X//Ontario Veterinary College Graduate Scholarship/ ; X//Ontario Graduate Scholar/ ; }, abstract = {Background: Season and weather are associated with many health outcomes, which can influence hospital admission rates. We examined associations between hospital admissions (all diagnoses) and local meteorological parameters in Southwestern Uganda, with the aim of supporting hospital planning and preparedness in the context of climate change. Methods: Hospital admissions data and meteorological data were collected from Bwindi Community Hospital and a satellite database of weather conditions, respectively (2011 to 2014). Descriptive statistics were used to describe admission patterns. A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was fitted to investigate associations between hospital admissions and season, precipitation, and temperature. Results: Admission counts were highest for acute respiratory infections, malaria, and acute gastrointestinal illness, which are climate-sensitive diseases. Hospital admissions were 1.16 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.31; p = 0.008) times higher during extreme high temperatures (i.e., >95th percentile) on the day of admission. Hospital admissions association with season depended on year; admissions were higher in the dry season than the rainy season every year, except for 2014. Discussion: Effective adaptation strategy characteristics include being low-cost and quick and practical to implement at local scales. Herein, we illustrate how analyzing hospital data alongside meteorological parameters may inform climate-health planning in low-resource contexts.}, }
@article {pmid30380174, year = {2018}, author = {Li, J and Li, D and Xue, Y and Wu, B and He, X and Liu, F}, title = {Identifying potential refugia and corridors under climate change: A case study of endangered Sichuan golden monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Qinling Mountains, China.}, journal = {American journal of primatology}, volume = {80}, number = {11}, pages = {e22929}, doi = {10.1002/ajp.22929}, pmid = {30380174}, issn = {1098-2345}, support = {2013BAD03B03//National Science &amp; Technology Pillar Program for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period-Technology of Habitat Assessment and Restoration for Shennongjia Golden Monkey/ ; 2018M631624//Project Funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens endangered species and challenges current conservation strategies. Effective conservation requires vulnerability assessments for species susceptible to climate change and adaptive strategies to mitigate threats associated with climate. In this paper, we used the Maxent to model the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Sichuan golden monkey Rhinopithecus roxellana. Our results showed that (i) suitable habitat for Sichuan golden monkey was predicted to decrease by 37% in 2050s under climate change; (ii) the mean elevations of suitable habitat in the 2050s was estimated to shift 160 m higher; (iii) nature reserves protect 62% of current suitable habitat and 56% of future suitable habitat; and (iv) 49% of current suitable habitat was predicted to be vulnerable to future climate change. Given these results, we proposed conservation implications to mitigate the impacts of climate change on Sichuan golden monkey, including adjusting range of national park, establishing habitat corridors, and conducting long-term monitoring.}, }
@article {pmid30379857, year = {2018}, author = {Case, MJ and Stinson, KA}, title = {Climate change impacts on the distribution of the allergenic plant, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in the eastern United States.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0205677}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0205677}, pmid = {30379857}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change is affecting the growth, phenology, and distribution of species across northeastern United States. In response to these changes, some species have been adversely impacted while others have benefited. One species that has benefited from climate change, historically and in response to experimental treatments, is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a widely distributed annual weed and a leading cause of hay fever in North America. To better understand how climate change may affect the distribution of common ragweed, we built a maximum entropy (Maxent) predictive model using climate and bioclimatic data and over 700 observations across the eastern U.S. Our model performed well with an AUC score of 0.765 using four uncorrelated variables, including precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, August precipitation, and January maximum temperature. After building and testing our model, we then projected potential future common ragweed distribution using a suite of 13 global climate models (GCMs) under two future greenhouse gas scenarios for mid and late-century. In addition to providing georeferenced hot spots of potential future expansion, we also provide a metric of confidence by evaluating the number of GCMs that agree. We show a substantial contraction of common ragweed in central Florida, southern Appalachian Mountains, and northeastern Virginia and areas of potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, notably in northeastern U.S. However, the vast majority of this increase is projected to occur by mid-century and may be moderated somewhat by the 2070s, implying that common ragweed may be sensitive to climatic variability. Although other factors and modeling approaches should be explored, we offer preliminary insight into where common ragweed might be a new concern in the future. Due to the health impacts of ragweed, local weed control boards may be well advised to monitor areas of expansion and potentially increase eradication efforts.}, }
@article {pmid30379845, year = {2018}, author = {Vicens, J and Bueno-Guerra, N and Gutiérrez-Roig, M and Gracia-Lázaro, C and Gómez-Gardeñes, J and Perelló, J and Sánchez, A and Moreno, Y and Duch, J}, title = {Resource heterogeneity leads to unjust effort distribution in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0204369}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0204369}, pmid = {30379845}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change mitigation is a shared global challenge that involves collective action of a set of individuals with different tendencies to cooperation. However, we lack an understanding of the effect of resource inequality when diverse actors interact together towards a common goal. Here, we report the results of a collective-risk dilemma experiment in which groups of individuals were initially given either equal or unequal endowments. We found that the effort distribution was highly inequitable, with participants with fewer resources contributing significantly more to the public goods than the richer -sometimes twice as much. An unsupervised learning algorithm classified the subjects according to their individual behavior, finding the poorest participants within two &quot;generous clusters&quot; and the richest into a &quot;greedy cluster&quot;. Our results suggest that policies would benefit from educating about fairness and reinforcing climate justice actions addressed to vulnerable people instead of focusing on understanding generic or global climate consequences.}, }
@article {pmid30378103, year = {2018}, author = {Clewlow, HL and Takahashi, A and Watanabe, S and Votier, SC and Downie, R and Ratcliffe, N}, title = {Niche partitioning of sympatric penguins by leapfrog foraging appears to be resilient to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12919}, pmid = {30378103}, issn = {1365-2656}, abstract = {1.Interspecific competition can drive niche partitioning along multidimensional axes, including allochrony. Competitor matching will arise where the phenology of sympatric species with similar ecological requirements respond to climate change at different rates such that allochrony is reduced. 2.Our study quantifies the degree of niche segregation in foraging areas and depths that arises from allochrony in sympatric Adélie and chinstrap penguins and explores its resilience to climate change. 3.Three-dimensional tracking data were sampled during all stages of the breeding season and were used to parameterise a behaviour-based model that quantified spatial overlap of foraging areas under different scenarios of allochrony. 4.The foraging ranges of the two species were similar within breeding stages, but differences in their foraging ranges between stages, combined with the observed allochrony of 28 days, resulted in them leapfrogging each other through the breeding season such that they were exploiting different foraging locations on the same calendar dates. Allochrony reduced spatial overlap in the peripheral utilisation distribution of the two species by 54.0% over the entire breeding season, compared to a scenario where the two species bred synchronously. 5.Analysis of long-term phenology data revealed that both species advanced their laying dates in relation to October air temperatures at the same rate, preserving allochrony and niche partitioning. However if allochrony is reduced by just a single day, the spatial overlap of the core utilisation distribution increased by an average of 2.1% over the entire breeding season. 6.Niche partitioning between the two species by allochrony appears to be resilient to climate change and so competitor matching cannot be implicated in the observed population declines of the two penguin species across the Western Antarctic Peninsula. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30377877, year = {2018}, author = {Patz, JA}, title = {Altered Disease Risk from Climate Change.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10393-018-1382-x}, pmid = {30377877}, issn = {1612-9210}, }
@article {pmid30375880, year = {2018}, author = {Trájer, AJ and Nagy, G and Domokos, E}, title = {Exploration of the heterogeneous effect of climate change on ozone concentration in an urban environment.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2018.1539703}, pmid = {30375880}, issn = {1369-1619}, abstract = {Ozone is a significant causative agent of mortality in cities. Urban environments are expressly vulnerable to global warming because of the extensive emission of air pollutants with urban heat island effect enhancing much rapidly the ozone concentration than in the less urbanized regions. This effect previously was not studied in local scale. It was hypothesized that climate change will cause heterogenic increase of ozone concentration in the different parts of the cities. To study this effect, the near-surface ozone concentration of 10 points of a Hungarian city was measured and modeled. At first step, the local correlations between solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and the near surface ozone concentrations at 3 m height were determined, specifying the local ozone-producing conditions. Then, based on the scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th assessment report, the future seasonal near-surface ozone concentrations were modeled. Based on the model, it was determined that climate change will result in a heterogenic increase of near-surface ozone concentration.}, }
@article {pmid30374458, year = {2018}, author = {Ladau, J and Shi, Y and Jing, X and He, JS and Chen, L and Lin, X and Fierer, N and Gilbert, JA and Pollard, KS and Chu, H}, title = {Existing Climate Change Will Lead to Pronounced Shifts in the Diversity of Soil Prokaryotes.}, journal = {mSystems}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1128/mSystems.00167-18}, pmid = {30374458}, issn = {2379-5077}, abstract = {Soil bacteria are key to ecosystem function and maintenance of soil fertility. Leveraging associations of current geographic distributions of bacteria with historic climate, we predict that soil bacterial diversity will increase across the majority (∼75%) of the Tibetan Plateau and northern North America if bacterial communities equilibrate with existing climatic conditions. This prediction is possible because the current distributions of soil bacteria have stronger correlations with climate from ∼50 years ago than with current climate. This lag is likely associated with the time it takes for soil properties to adjust to changes in climate. The predicted changes are location specific and differ across bacterial taxa, including some bacteria that are predicted to have reductions in their distributions. These findings illuminate the widespread potential of climate change to influence belowground diversity and the importance of considering bacterial communities when assessing climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. IMPORTANCE There have been many studies highlighting how plant and animal communities lag behind climate change, causing extinction and diversity debts that will slowly be paid as communities equilibrate. By virtue of their short generation times and dispersal abilities, soil bacteria might be expected to respond to climate change quickly and to be effectively in equilibrium with current climatic conditions. We found strong evidence to the contrary in Tibet and North America. These findings could significantly improve understanding of climate impacts on soil microbial communities.}, }
@article {pmid30373825, year = {2018}, author = {Freeman, BG and Scholer, MN and Ruiz-Gutierrez, V and Fitzpatrick, JW}, title = {Climate change causes upslope shifts and mountaintop extirpations in a tropical bird community.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1804224115}, pmid = {30373825}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Montane species worldwide are shifting upslope in response to recent temperature increases. These upslope shifts are predicted to lead to mountaintop extinctions of species that live only near mountain summits, but empirical examples of populations that have disappeared are sparse. We show that recent warming constitutes an &quot;escalator to extinction&quot; for birds on a remote Peruvian mountain-high-elevation species have declined in both range size and abundance, and several previously common mountaintop residents have disappeared from the local community. Our findings support projections that warming will likely drive widespread extirpations and extinctions of high-elevation taxa in the tropical Andes. Such climate change-driven mountaintop extirpations may be more likely in the tropics, where temperature seems to exert a stronger control on species' range limits than in the temperate zone. In contrast, we show that lowland bird species at our study site are expanding in range size as they shift their upper limits upslope and may thus benefit from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30373158, year = {2018}, author = {Ebi, KL and Berry, P and Hayes, K and Boyer, C and Sellers, S and Enright, PM and Hess, JJ}, title = {Stress Testing the Capacity of Health Systems to Manage Climate Change-Related Shocks and Stresses.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15112370}, pmid = {30373158}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Vulnerability and adaptation assessments can provide valuable input to foster climate-resilient health systems. However, these assessments often do not explore the potential health risks of climate change far outside the range of recent experience with extreme weather events and other climate-related hazards. Climate and health stress tests are designed to increase the capacity of health systems and related sectors to manage potentially disruptive climate-related shocks and stresses. Stress tests focus on hypothetical scenarios, during which it would be difficult for the health system to maintain its essential function of providing services to protect population health. The stress test explores approaches to effectively manage acute and chronic climate-related events and conditions that could directly impact health systems, and climate-related events in non-health sectors that can indirectly impact health outcomes and/or health system function. We provide detailed methods and guidance for conducting climate and health stress tests, centering on three primary activities: (1) preparing and scoping the stress test; (2) successfully conducting the stress test; and (3) communicating the results to key stakeholders to facilitate policy and programmatic reforms.}, }
@article {pmid30373063, year = {2019}, author = {Parajuli, R and Thoma, G and Matlock, MD}, title = {Environmental sustainability of fruit and vegetable production supply chains in the face of climate change: A review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2863-2879}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.019}, pmid = {30373063}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study discusses importance of assessing environmental sustainability of fruits and vegetable (F&amp;V) production sector in future climate change (CC) scenarios. For the current production scenario, life cycle environmental footprints of F&amp;V supply chain are discussed considering the influences of: agro-climates, production systems, raw material inputs, post-harvest managements to the products' yield and quality. Potential risks of CC to the sector are discussed in the context of elevated global temperature and carbon dioxide level, ozone depletion and changes in precipitation patterns. Potential risks due to CC are on the productivity and the quality of F&amp;V products, such as texture, color, maturity and nutrients. Increased risk of failure of the current crop protection strategies, e.g. due to pest infestations and different crop-water and nutrient stresses are among the short and long-term risks. It also discusses potential adaptation and mitigation measures to CC, and therefrom argues on the related environmental consequences in the supply chain. From the LCA studies, it was revealed that environmental impacts of F&amp;V supply chain varied as per agro-ecological characteristics and farming systems, e.g. greenhouse vs open-field, organic vs conventional, and grown in different agro-climatic conditions. The nexus among the climatic stresses, potential adaptation and mitigation measures, hence were in the form of potential changes in the raw material inputs and resource flows depending on the preferred future agro-management strategies and farming practices. Adaptation and other management options, included are, changes in: crop calendar, nutrient and pest management strategies, post-harvest handling and improved preservation of F&amp;V products. These are argued eventually being determining factors leading to different environmental footprints compared to the existing management scenarios. Prospective life cycle environmental evaluation of F&amp;V supply chain considering the relationship among product yield and qualities, CC stresses and potential adaptation and mitigation measures is thus a new thrust and direction.}, }
@article {pmid30370745, year = {2018}, author = {Michelozzi, P and De' Donato, F}, title = {[Climate change and air quality: a &quot;liaison dangereuse&quot;].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {42}, number = {5-6}, pages = {382-383}, doi = {10.19191/EP18.5-6.P382.112}, pmid = {30370745}, issn = {1120-9763}, }
@article {pmid30369830, year = {2018}, author = {van Lange, PAM and Rinderu, MI and Bushman, BJ}, title = {CLASH: Climate (change) and cultural evolution of intergroup conflict.}, journal = {Group processes &amp; intergroup relations : GPIR}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {457-471}, doi = {10.1177/1368430217735579}, pmid = {30369830}, issn = {1368-4302}, abstract = {Aggression and violence levels generally increase as one moves closer to the equator, but why? We developed a new theoretical model, CLimate, Aggression, and Self-control in Humans (CLASH; van Lange, Rinderu, &amp; Bushman, 2017b, 2017c), to understand differences within and between countries in aggression and violence in terms of differences in climate. Colder temperatures, and especially larger degrees of seasonal variation in climate, call for individuals and groups to adopt a slower life history strategy, revealed in a greater focus on the future (vs. present) and a stronger focus on self-control-variables that are known to inhibit aggression and violence. Other variables (e.g., wealth, income inequality, parasite stress) are also linked to both climate differences and to aggression and violence differences. When people think of the consequences of climate change, they rarely think of the impact on aggression and violence levels, but they should. CLASH has broad implications for the effects of climate change on intergroup conflict.}, }
@article {pmid30369627, year = {2018}, author = {Dalla Marta, A and Eitzinger, J and Kersebaum, KC and Todorovic, M and Altobelli, F}, title = {Assessment and monitoring of crop water use and productivity in response to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of agricultural science}, volume = {156}, number = {5}, pages = {575-576}, doi = {10.1017/S002185961800076X}, pmid = {30369627}, issn = {0021-8596}, }
@article {pmid30368853, year = {2018}, author = {Bostrom, A and Hayes, AL and Crosman, KM}, title = {Efficacy, Action, and Support for Reducing Climate Change Risks.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13210}, pmid = {30368853}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {1430781//National Science Foundation/ ; 1463492//University of Washington/ ; //Carnegie Mellon University/ ; T32 HD007543//Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development/ ; //Shanahan Endowment Fellowship/ ; //Center for Studies in Demography &amp; Ecology/ ; }, abstract = {A growing body of research demonstrates that believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self-efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts. Despite this potentially critical role of efficacy beliefs, measures and their use vary wildly in climate change risk perception and communication research, making it hard to compare and learn from efficacy studies. To address this problem and advance our understanding of efficacy beliefs, this article makes three contributions. First, we present a theoretically motivated approach to measuring climate change mitigation efficacy, in light of diverse proposed, perceived, and previously researched strategies. Second, we test this in two national survey samples (Amazon's Mechanical Turk N = 405, GfK Knowledge Panel N = 1,820), demonstrating largely coherent beliefs by level of action and discrimination between types of efficacy. Four additive efficacy scales emerge: personal self-efficacy, personal response efficacy, government and collective self-efficacy, and government and collective response efficacy. Third, we employ the resulting efficacy scales in mediation models to test how well efficacy beliefs predict climate change policy support, controlling for specific knowledge, risk perceptions, and ideology, and allowing for mediation by concern. Concern fully mediates the relatively strong effects of perceived risk on policy support, but only partly mediates efficacy beliefs. Stronger government and collective response efficacy beliefs and personal self-efficacy beliefs are both directly and indirectly associated with greater support for reducing the risks of climate change, even after controlling for ideology and causal beliefs about climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30368676, year = {2018}, author = {Benmoussa, H and Ben Mimoun, M and Ghrab, M and Luedeling, E}, title = {Climate change threatens central Tunisian nut orchards.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-018-1628-x}, pmid = {30368676}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {Temperate deciduous trees can only be productive where winters are cold enough to meet their chilling needs. In the Mediterranean region, chill has traditionally been sufficient for many species, but this may change as temperatures increase. We explored the region's present and future suitability for temperate trees by quantifying chill for the Sfax region in central Tunisia, one of the warmest regions where temperate nuts are commercially grown. We assessed climatic risk by calculating historic chill (since 1973) and using a weather generator calibrated with local weather data (1973-2015) to produce 101 years of chill estimates (computed with the Dynamic Model) and 3 past and 72 future scenarios (for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, using two representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For almonds and pistachios, we compared available chill during the chilling period with the species' estimated chilling requirements, and we computed the date by which sufficient chill was expected to have accumulated. Our findings indicated severe chill losses for all future scenarios. For all species, the current chill period is no longer expected to be sufficient for meeting chilling requirements in the future. Chill needs may still be fulfilled later in the year, especially for low-chill almonds, but this would result in delayed phenology, with possible adverse effects on productivity. Temperate nut production is thus unlikely to remain viable at this site, highlighting an urgent need to identify locally appropriate adaptation options. This challenge is likely shared by other warm production regions of temperate fruits and nuts around the world.}, }
@article {pmid30368152, year = {2018}, author = {Rakib, MA and Sasaki, J and Pal, S and Newaz, MA and Bodrud-Doza, M and Bhuiyan, MAH}, title = {An investigation of coastal vulnerability and internal consistency of local perceptions under climate change risk in the southwest part of Bangladesh.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {231}, number = {}, pages = {419-428}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.054}, pmid = {30368152}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climatic threats force disruption on community lifestyles by impairing social factors, the fundamental components of ensuring social sustainability. This study investigates the situational factors affecting the consequences on coastal livelihoods, and social activities; it also considers the effectiveness of traditional knowledge in reducing possible risks. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were employed, including questionnaire survey for identifying the local perception of climatic impacts alongside the impacts on daily activities. Interviews, field observations, and multivariate analyses were performed to explain the vulnerability status in coastal communities. Results show that most livelihood sectors were severely affected by the long-term and repeated actions of climatic hazards, such as cyclones, associated with a number of unavoidable risks making people susceptible to damages in social wellbeing. In addition, saltwater intrusion damages drinking water supply and crop farming, which can cause diseases among coastal communities, but very few attempts have been made to provide alternative sources of drinking water at a household level. Moreover, principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) revealed significant interfaces between local perceptions and the socio-and agro-environmental factors changing the overall status of regional hazards. Thus, the situation exhibits coastal hazards, social vulnerability, and social crisis. Local people use their traditional knowledge to cope with various levels of crisis under vulnerable conditions, but sometimes doing so exceeds their capacity owing to the unwanted changes in climatic variables and knowledge gaps or uncertainties. Challenges on the basis of the problematic points should be noted, however, it would be more significant to achieve social sustainability under adverse climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30366320, year = {2018}, author = {Boonwichai, S and Shrestha, S and Babel, MS and Weesakul, S and Datta, A}, title = {Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies on rainfed rice production in Songkhram River Basin, Thailand.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {652}, number = {}, pages = {189-201}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.201}, pmid = {30366320}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study investigates rice yield and evaluates potential adaptation measures on field management practices for rainfed rice production under climate change scenarios in the Songkhram River Basin, Thailand. The top-down and bottom-up approaches are combined to evaluate the future climate conditions in the Songkhram River Basin and identify adaptation strategies respectively. An ensemble of four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) bias-corrected using the Quantile Mapping technique was used to project the future climate under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The DSSAT crop simulation model was used to simulate rice yield and evaluate the impacts of climate change on rice yield, as well as the feasibility of four adaptation options, which were solicited from four hundred farmers through questionnaire surveys in the basin. The strategies include (i) change in planting date, (ii) change in fertiliser application date, (iii) change in fertiliser application dose, and (iv) supplying irrigation water. Based on the model results, future maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to increase by 2.8 and 3.2 °C respectively under RCP8.5 scenario for 2080s. Although annual rainfall may be unchanged, rainfall patterns will shift earlier in future. Evaluation of adaptation strategies suggest that supplying irrigation water under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively are the best strategies to increase rice yield under climate change scenarios. Change in fertiliser application date and change in planting date can increase the future rice yield by 12 and 8%, respectively under RCP4.5 scenario for 2080s. Adjusting the fertiliser application dose may however reduce future rice yield. Although supplying irrigation water can aid the production of rainfed rice, other concerns such as the source of water are involved. The feasibility of adaptation actions would depend largely on available resources and mindset of farmers. Further work is warranted in exploring a combination of adaptation strategies and management plans to combat the adverse impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30364587, year = {2018}, author = {Rahut, DB and Ali, A}, title = {Impact of climate-change risk-coping strategies on livestock productivity and household welfare: empirical evidence from Pakistan.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {4}, number = {10}, pages = {e00797}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2018.e00797}, pmid = {30364587}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Using the primary datasets collected from 700 livestock farmers from all four major provinces of Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit Baltistan, this paper analyzes the impact of climate-change risk coping strategies on household welfare. A Poisson regression model was used to estimate the determinants of the livestock ownership and multivariate probit model to assess the determinants of the measures taken to manage the climatic-risk challenge for livestock. A propensity score matching approach (PSM) was used to assess the impact of the adopted climate-risk management strategies on livestock farmers. Findings indicated that in Pakistan livestock farmers generally adopt four main types of strategies to cope with climate risk: livestock insurance, selling of livestock, allocation of more land area for fodder and migration. The results show that age, education, wealth, access to extension services, and membership in NGOs, influence the livestock farmers' choice of climate-risk-coping mechanisms. The livestock farmers who adopted risk-coping mechanisms generally fared better. Increasing the land area allocated to fodder seems to increase production of milk and butter, resulting in higher income and lower poverty levels. Those who bought insurance had more milk production and a lower poverty level, while those who sold livestock to cope with climate risk decreased production but increased household income and lowered poverty levels. Migration seems to have a negative impact on production and income. Impact assessments confirm that purchasing livestock insurance and increasing fodder areas are more effective compared to the selling of livestock and migration. Agricultural climate policy should focus on creating awareness as well as increasing access to extension services among livestock farmers on climate risk and risk-coping strategies to mitigate the impact on rural livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid30361350, year = {2018}, author = {Pennisi, E}, title = {Restoring lost grazers could help blunt climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6413}, pages = {388}, doi = {10.1126/science.362.6413.388}, pmid = {30361350}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid30360282, year = {2019}, author = {Potapowicz, J and Szumińska, D and Szopińska, M and Polkowska, Ż}, title = {The influence of global climate change on the environmental fate of anthropogenic pollution released from the permafrost: Part I. Case study of Antarctica.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {1534-1548}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.168}, pmid = {30360282}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This article presents a review of information related to the influence of potential permafrost degradation on the environmental fate of chemical species which are released and stored, classified as potential influence in future Antarctic environment. Considering all data regarding climate change prediction, this topic may prove important issue for the future state of the Antarctic environment. A detailed survey on soil and permafrost data permitted the assumption that this medium may constitute a sink for organic and inorganic pollution (especially for persistent organic pollution, POPs, and heavy metals). The analysis of the environmental fate and potential consequences of the presence of pollutants for the existence of the Antarctic fauna leads to a conclusion that they may cause numerous negative effects (e.g. Endocrine disruptions, DNA damage, cancerogenicity). In the case of temperature increase and enhanced remobilisation processes, this effect may be even stronger, and may disturb natural balance in the environment. Therefore, regular research on the environmental fate of pollution is required, especially in terms of processes of remobilisation from the permafrost reserves.}, }
@article {pmid30359427, year = {2018}, author = {Di Giusto, B and Lavallee, JP and Yu, TY}, title = {Towards an East Asian model of climate change awareness: A questionnaire study among university students in Taiwan.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0206298}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0206298}, pmid = {30359427}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {East Asia emits more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than any other region, yet little is known about attitudes towards climate change in this region. A cross-sectional survey investigating climate change knowledge, concern and behavior change was administered to 1118 university students at nine universities across Taiwan in June 2016. Knowledge was assessed with a 15-item quiz while concern and behavioral change were self-reported on 5-point Likert scales. The relationship of these three variables with various socio-demographic variables was investigated through Kruskal-Wallis tests and ordinal logistic regressions. Knowledge was homogeneous by region but differed sharply by socioeconomic position. Concern appears high by international standards, with 65% reporting being &quot;somewhat concerned&quot; and 28% being &quot;very concerned,&quot; while climate change denial was negligible. Students expressing greater concern were more likely to be from eastern and southern Taiwan, regions more vulnerable to extreme weather events. However, these high concern levels did not translate into action, as only 38% of respondents reported &quot;some&quot; and 11% reported &quot;very much&quot; behavioral change in response to climate change. Higher levels of behavioral change were reported by students expressing greater concern and students with lower levels of climate change knowledge. In contrast with studies of Western societies, our findings suggest an East Asian model in which the conflict between economic growth and the environment is playing out in different ways, such that the crucial need is for policy leadership and not more education.}, }
@article {pmid30358002, year = {2018}, author = {Chen, L and Huang, JG and Ma, Q and Hänninen, H and Tremblay, F and Bergeron, Y}, title = {Long-term changes in the impacts of global warming on leaf phenology of four temperate tree species.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14496}, pmid = {30358002}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Contrary to the generally advanced spring leaf unfolding under global warming, the effects of the climate warming on autumn leaf senescence are highly variable with advanced, delayed, and unchanged patterns being all reported. Using one million records of leaf phenology from four dominant temperate species in Europe, we investigated the temperature sensitivities of spring leaf unfolding and autumn leaf senescence (ST , advanced or delayed days per degree Celsius). The ST of spring phenology in all of the four examined species showed an increase and decrease during 1951-1980 and 1981-2013, respectively. The decrease of the ST during 1981-2013 appears to be caused by reduced accumulation of chilling units. As with spring phenology, the ST of leaf senescence of early successional and exotic species started to decline since 1980. In contrast, for late successional species, the ST of autumn senescence showed an increase for the entire study period from 1951 to 2013. The impacts of rising temperature associated with global warming on spring leaf unfolding was stronger than those on autumn leaf senescence. The timing of leaf senescence was positively correlated with the timing of leaf unfolding during 1951-1980. However, as climate warming continued, the differences in the responses between spring and autumn phenology gradually increased, so that the correlation was no more significant during 1981-2013. Our results further suggest that since 2000, due to the decreased temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding the length of the growing season has not increased any more. This finding needs to be addressed in vegetation models used for assessing the effects of climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30357847, year = {2018}, author = {Carvalho, LC and Amâncio, S}, title = {Cutting the Gordian Knot of abiotic stress in grapevine: from the test tube to climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/ppl.12857}, pmid = {30357847}, issn = {1399-3054}, abstract = {In Mediterranean climate areas, the available scenarios for climate change suggest an increase in the frequency of heat waves and severe drought in summer. Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) is a traditional Mediterranean species and is the most valuable fruit crop in the world. Currently, viticulture must adjust to impending climate changes that are already pushing vine-growers towards the use of irrigation, with the concomitant losses in wine quality, and researchers to study tolerance to stress in existing genotypes. The viticulture and winemaking worlds are in demand to understand the physiological potential of the available genotypes to respond to climate changes. In this review we will focus on the cross-talk between common abiotic stresses that currently affect grapevine productivity and that are prone to affect it deeper in the future. We will discuss results obtained under three experimental stress conditions and that call for specific responses: (1) acclimatization of in vitro plantlets, (2) stress combinations in controlled conditions for research purposes, (3) extreme events in the field that, driven by climate changes, are pushing Mediterranean species to the limit. The different levels of tolerance to stress put in evidence by the plasticity of phenotypic and genotypic response mechanisms, will be addressed. This information is relevant to understand varietal adaptation to impending climate changes and to assist vine growers in choosing genotypes and viticulture practices. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30356932, year = {2018}, author = {Ashraf, U and Chaudhry, MN and Ahmad, SR and Ashraf, I and Arslan, M and Noor, H and Jabbar, M}, title = {Impacts of climate change on Capparis spinosa L. based on ecological niche modeling.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e5792}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.5792}, pmid = {30356932}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Recent changes in climate are transforming the situation of life on Earth, including impacting the conservation status of many plant and animal species. This study aims to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on a medicinal plant that is known to be heat-tolerant, Capparis spinosa L. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate current and future potential distributions for the species, considering two emissions scenarios and five climate models for two time periods (2050 and 2070). The results in terms of areal coverage at different suitability levels in the future were closely similar to its present-day distribution; indeed, only minor differences existed in highly suitable area, with increases of only 0.2-0.3% in suitable area for 2050 and 2070 under representative concentration pathway 4.5. Given that climate-mediated range shifts in the species are expected to be minor, conservation attention to this species can focus on minimizing local effects of anthropogenic activity.}, }
@article {pmid30356292, year = {2018}, author = {Barros, C and Thuiller, W and Münkemüller, T}, title = {Drought effects on the stability of forest-grassland ecotones under gradual climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0206138}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0206138}, pmid = {30356292}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Plant communities in forest-grassland ecotones of the European Alps are already suffering from gradual climate change and will likely be exposed to more frequent and intense drought periods in the future. Yet, how gradual climate change and extreme drought will affect the stability of these plant communities is largely unknown. Here, we investigated how drought modulates the effects of gradual climate change on the long-term structural stability of these ecotone communities using a multidimensional approach. Using a spatially explicit landscape vegetation model, we simulated three drought scenarios, on top of gradual changes of climate variables, and their impacts on the dynamics of 24 plant functional groups, distinguishing between forests and grasslands, as well as different land uses. We then used n-dimensional hypervolumes to define community states under the different drought scenarios, and compared them to initial conditions to assess changes in community structural stability. In general, added drought effects did not counteract the long-term consequences of gradual climate changes, although they resulted in quantitatively different effects. Importantly, drought and climate change had non-negligible consequences for taxonomic and functional structure that differed between communities and land-use regimes. For instance, forest taxonomic structure was more overall more stable than grassland's, despite the observed functional shifts towards more warm-adapted species compositions. Conversely, unmanaged grasslands were the least stable, suffering the loss of characteristic alpine species. Also, while frequent and severe drought regimes caused forests to become more variable in time, they had the opposite effect on grasslands. Our results agree with observations of drought- and climate-driven changes in mountain communities of the Alps, and we discuss their relevance for ecosystem management. Importantly, we demonstrate the utility of this multidimensional approach to study community stability for analysing cross-community and cross-disturbance responses to global change.}, }
@article {pmid30355969, year = {2018}, author = {Zeuli, K and Nijhuis, A and Macfarlane, R and Ridsdale, T}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on the Food System in Toronto.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15112344}, pmid = {30355969}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {NA//Toronto Public Health/ ; }, abstract = {As part of its Climate Change and Health Strategy, in 2017, Toronto Public Health engaged stakeholders from across the food system to complete a high-level vulnerability assessment of the impact of climate change on the food system in Toronto. Using the Ontario Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Guidelines, the City of Toronto's High-Level Risk Assessment Tool, and a strategic framework developed by the Initiative for a Competitive Inner City, Toronto Public Health identified the most significant extreme weather event risks to food processing, distribution and access in Toronto. Risks associated with three extreme weather events that are the most likely to occur in Toronto due to climate change were analyzed: significant rain and flooding, an extended heat wave, and a major winter ice storm. The analysis finds that while extreme weather events could potentially disrupt Toronto's food supply, the current risk of an extended, widespread food supply disruption is relatively low. However, the findings highlight that a concerted effort across the food system, including electrical and fuel providers, is needed to address other key vulnerabilities that could impact food access, especially for vulnerable populations. Interruptions to electricity will have food access and food safety impacts, while interruptions to the transportation network and fuel will have food distribution and access impacts. Actions to mitigate these risks could include addressing food access vulnerabilities through ongoing city-wide strategies and integrating food access into the City's emergency response planning. The next steps will include engaging with multiple partners across the city to understand and strengthen the &quot;last mile&quot; of food distribution and develop community food resilience action plans for vulnerable neighbourhoods.}, }
@article {pmid30355678, year = {2018}, author = {Taillardat, P and Friess, DA and Lupascu, M}, title = {Mangrove blue carbon strategies for climate change mitigation are most effective at the national scale.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rsbl.2018.0251}, pmid = {30355678}, issn = {1744-957X}, abstract = {Carbon fixed by vegetated coastal ecosystems (blue carbon) can mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions, though its effectiveness differs with the spatial scale of interest. A literature review compiling carbon sequestration rates within key ecosystems confirms that blue carbon ecosystems are the most efficient natural carbon sinks at the plot scale, though some overlooked biogeochemical processes may lead to overestimation. Moreover, the limited spatial extent of coastal habitats minimizes their potential at the global scale, only buffering 0.42% of the global fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2014. Still, blue carbon plays a role for countries with moderate fossil fuel emissions and extensive coastlines. In 2014, mangroves mitigated greater than 1% of national fossil fuel emissions for countries such as Bangladesh, Colombia and Nigeria. Considering that the Paris Agreement is based on nationally determined contributions, we propose that mangrove blue carbon may contribute to climate change mitigation at this scale in some instances alongside other blue carbon ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30353483, year = {2018}, author = {Sharma, R and Hooyberghs, H and Lauwaet, D and De Ridder, K}, title = {Urban Heat Island and Future Climate Change-Implications for Delhi's Heat.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11524-018-0322-y}, pmid = {30353483}, issn = {1468-2869}, support = {308497//European Community's 7th Framework Programme/ ; 308299//European Community's 7th Framework Programme/ ; }, abstract = {UrbClim, the urban climate model, is used for short- and long-term projections of climate for Delhi. The projections are performed for RCP8.5 using an ensemble of 11 GCM model outputs. Various heat stress indices were employed to understand the role of urban heat island (UHI) in influencing the present and future urban climate of the city. UHI intensity based on 5% warmest nights (TNp95) was 4.1 °C and exhibits negligible change over time. However, the impact of UHI on other heat stress indices is very strong. Combined hot days and tropical nights (CHT) that influenced 58-70% of the reference time frame are expected to rise to 68-77% in near-future and to 91-97% in far-future time periods. For reference time period, urban areas experience 2.3 more number of heat wave days (NHWD) than rural areas per summer season. This difference increases to 7.1 in short-term and 13.8 in long-term projections. Similar to this trend, frequency of heat waves (FHW) for urban areas is also expected to increase from 0.8 each summer season in reference time frame to 2.1 and 5.1 in short- and long-term projections. The urban-rural difference for duration of heat waves (DHW) appears to increase from 1.7 days in past to 2.3 and 2.2 days in future, illustrating that DHW for cities will be higher than non-urban areas at least by 2 days. The intensity of heat wave (IHW) for urban land uses increases from 40 °C in reference time frame to 45 °C in short-term projection to 49 °C in far future. These values for non-urban land use were 33 °C during the baseline time period and are expected to increase to 42 °C and 46 °C in near- and far-future time frames. The results clearly indicate the contribution of UHI effects in intensifying the impacts of extreme heat and heat stress in the city.}, }
@article {pmid30350264, year = {2018}, author = {Jaakkola, JJK and Juntunen, S and Näkkäläjärvi, K}, title = {The Holistic Effects of Climate Change on the Culture, Well-Being, and Health of the Saami, the Only Indigenous People in the European Union.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s40572-018-0211-2}, pmid = {30350264}, issn = {2196-5412}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: (1) To develop a framework for understanding the holistic effects of climate change on the Saami people; (2) to summarize the scientific evidence about the primary, secondary, and tertiary effects of climate change on Saami culture and Sápmi region; and (3) to identify gaps in the knowledge of the effects of climate change on health and well-being of the Saami.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: The Saami health is on average similar, or slightly better compared to the health of other populations in the same area. Warming climate has already influenced Saami reindeer culture. Mental health and suicide risk partly linked to changing physical and social environments are major concerns. The lifestyle, diet, and morbidity of the Saami are changing to resemble the majority populations posing threats for the health of the Saami and making them more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Climate change is a threat for the cultural way of life of Saami. Possibilities for Saami to adapt to climate change are limited.}, }
@article {pmid30349658, year = {2018}, author = {Musarandega, H and Chingombe, W and Pillay, R}, title = {Harnessing local traditional authorities as a potential strategy to combat the vagaries of climate change in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {651}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v10i1.651}, pmid = {30349658}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {While the devastating vagaries of climate change are ravaging communities the world over, especially in Africa, and Zimbabwe in particular, the role of traditional authorities is being overlooked. This paper argues for a relentless push towards the unimpeded involvement of local traditional authorities (LTAs) in the mobilisation of rural communities to adopt appropriate climate change adaptation practices in Zimbabwe. Given its complexity and uniqueness, external intervention through government and non-governmental agents alone can hardly foster climate change adaptation particularly at local levels within communities. Traditional leaders, who have for a long time been useful in the governance of people in various rural communities, can play a supportive role in climate change adaptation. Traditional leaders do not only serve as governance authorities but also know the traditional strategies of combating the negative effects of climate change. Despite the pressure from political interference and the advent of western technological advancement, a lot could still be done to buttress the authority and respect vested in chiefs, headsmen and village heads in the country. LTAs have the power to manage grassroots communities; hence they can be utilised as drivers in the use of traditional climate change adaptation strategies. The paper concludes that political interference is one challenge faced by abusing traditional leadership as a means to gain political mileage. The paper recommends for extended capacity building on the part of traditional leaders to improve their knowledge base. This will enable them to appreciate the integration of indigenous and modern climate change adaptation strategies. It further recommends the revitalisation of the traditional council (Dare raMambo) to deal with environmental offenses with the scope of assisting government efforts to ensure sound ecological practices within communities.}, }
@article {pmid30348889, year = {2018}, author = {Kjeldahl, EM and Hendricks, VF}, title = {The sense of social influence: pluralistic ignorance in climate change: Social factors play key roles in human behavior. Individuals tend to underestimate how much others worry about climate change. This may inhibit them from taking collective climate action.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.15252/embr.201847185}, pmid = {30348889}, issn = {1469-3178}, }
@article {pmid30348873, year = {2018}, author = {Jarvie, S and Svenning, JC}, title = {Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {373}, number = {1761}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2017.0446}, pmid = {30348873}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Trophic rewilding, the (re)introduction of species to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems, is a future-oriented approach to ecological restoration. In the twenty-first century and beyond, human-mediated climate change looms as a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. A critical aspect in planning trophic rewilding projects is the selection of suitable sites that match the needs of the focal species under both current and future climates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species, but the extent of their adoption for trophic rewilding projects has been limited. Here, we provide an overview of applications of SDMs to trophic rewilding projects, outline methodological choices and issues, and provide a synthesis and outlook. We then predict the potential distribution of 17 large-bodied taxa proposed as trophic rewilding candidates and which represent different continents and habitats. We identified widespread climatic suitability for these species in the discussed (re)introduction regions under current climates. Climatic conditions generally remain suitable in the future, although some species will experience reduced suitability in parts of these regions. We conclude that climate change is not a major barrier to trophic rewilding as currently discussed in the literature.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.}, }
@article {pmid30348869, year = {2018}, author = {Falcón, W and Hansen, DM}, title = {Island rewilding with giant tortoises in an era of climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {373}, number = {1761}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2017.0442}, pmid = {30348869}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Replacing recently extinct endemic giant tortoises with extant, functional analogues provide the perhaps best examples of island rewilding to date. Yet, an efficient future application of this conservation action is challenging in an era of climate change. We here present and discuss a conceptual framework that can serve as a roadmap for the study and application of tortoise rewilding in an uncertain future. We focus on three main ecological functions mediated by giant tortoises, namely herbivory, seed dispersal and nutrient cycling, and discuss how climate change is likely to impact these. We then propose and discuss mitigation strategies such as artificial constructed shade sites and water holes that can help drive and maintain the ecosystem functions provided by the tortoises on a landscape scale. The application of the framework and the mitigation strategies are illustrated with examples from both wild and rewilded populations of the Aldabra giant tortoise, Aldabrachelys gigantea, in the Western Indian Ocean.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.}, }
@article {pmid30348867, year = {2018}, author = {Cromsigt, JPGM and Te Beest, M and Kerley, GIH and Landman, M and le Roux, E and Smith, FA}, title = {Trophic rewilding as a climate change mitigation strategy?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {373}, number = {1761}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2017.0440}, pmid = {30348867}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {The loss of megafauna at the terminal Pleistocene has been linked to a wide range of Earth-system-level changes, such as altered greenhouse gas budgets, fire regimes and biome-level vegetation changes. Given these influences and feedbacks, might part of the solution for mitigating anthropogenic climate change lie in the restoration of extant megafauna to ecosystems? Here, we explore the potential role of trophic rewilding on Earth's climate system. We first provide a novel synthesis of the various ways that megafauna interact with the major drivers of anthropogenic climate change, including greenhouse gas storage and emission, aerosols and albedo. We then explore the role of rewilding as a mitigation tool at two scales: (i) current and near-future opportunities for national or regional climate change mitigation portfolios, and (ii) more radical opportunities at the global scale. Finally, we identify major knowledge gaps that complicate the complete characterization of rewilding as a climate change mitigation strategy. Our perspective is urgent since we are losing the Earth's last remaining megafauna, and with it a potential option to address climate change.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.}, }
@article {pmid30348756, year = {2018}, author = {Hopping, KA and Chignell, SM and Lambin, EF}, title = {The demise of caterpillar fungus in the Himalayan region due to climate change and overharvesting.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1811591115}, pmid = {30348756}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Demand for traditional medicine ingredients is causing species declines globally. Due to this trade, Himalayan caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) has become one of the world's most valuable biological commodities, providing a crucial source of income for hundreds of thousands of collectors. However, the resulting harvesting boom has generated widespread concern over the sustainability of its collection. We investigate whether caterpillar fungus production is decreasing-and if so, why-across its entire range. To overcome the limitations of sparse quantitative data, we use a multiple evidence base approach that makes use of complementarities between local knowledge and ecological modeling. We find that, according to collectors across four countries, caterpillar fungus production has decreased due to habitat degradation, climate change, and especially overexploitation. Our statistical models corroborate that climate change is contributing to this decline. They indicate that caterpillar fungus is more productive under colder conditions, growing in close proximity to areas likely to have permafrost. With significant warming already underway throughout much of its range, we conclude that caterpillar fungus populations have been negatively affected by a combination of overexploitation and climate change. Our results underscore that harvesting is not the sole threat to economically valuable species, and that a collapse of the caterpillar fungus system under ongoing warming and high collection pressure would have serious implications throughout the Himalayan region.}, }
@article {pmid30348655, year = {2018}, author = {Law, A and Saunders, P and Middleton, J and McCoy, D}, title = {Global warming must stay below 1.5°C.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {k4410}, pmid = {30348655}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid30348474, year = {2018}, author = {Vafeiadou, AM and Bretaña, BLP and Van Colen, C and Dos Santos, GAP and Moens, T}, title = {Global warming-induced temperature effects to intertidal tropical and temperate meiobenthic communities.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.10.005}, pmid = {30348474}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Global climate change and the related temperature rise strongly impact marine life and have long been in the center of scientific attention. This experimental work investigates thermal-stress effects on intertidal meiofauna from tropical and temperate coasts, focusing on community responses. Natural communities were exposed for a month to ambient, elevated constant temperatures and diurnal fluctuating temperature regimes with elevated peak maxima, to mimic realistic future climate conditions. Abundance, biodiversity, community composition and functional diversity were assessed. Differential responses between a tropical and a temperate community were revealed. The tropical nematode assemblage was more tolerant to the elevated constant than to the fluctuating temperature regime, whereas the temperate assemblage was equally affected by both. Shifts in dominance of temperature-tolerant species in elevated constant and fluctuating temperature treatments (due to temperature variations) were observed and explained by a combination of differential tolerances and shifts in species interactions. Overall, global warming-induced temperature was found to alter species dynamics within meiobenthic communities, which may have further implications for the ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid30347771, year = {2018}, author = {Mpandeli, S and Naidoo, D and Mabhaudhi, T and Nhemachena, C and Nhamo, L and Liphadzi, S and Hlahla, S and Modi, AT}, title = {Climate Change Adaptation through the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Southern Africa.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15102306}, pmid = {30347771}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate change is a complex and cross-cutting problem that needs an integrated and transformative systems approach to respond to the challenge. Current sectoral approaches to climate change adaptation initiatives often create imbalances and retard sustainable development. Regional and international literature on climate change adaptation opportunities and challenges applicable to southern Africa from a water-energy-food (WEF) nexus perspective was reviewed. Specifically, this review highlights climate change impacts on water, energy, and food resources in southern Africa, while exploring mitigation and adaptation opportunities. The review further recommends strategies to develop cross-sectoral sustainable measures aimed at building resilient communities. Regional WEF nexus related institutions and legal frameworks were also reviewed to relate the WEF nexus to policy. Southern Africa is witnessing an increased frequency and intensity in climate change-associated extreme weather events, causing water, food, and energy insecurity. A projected reduction of 20% in annual rainfall by 2080 in southern Africa will only increase the regional socio-economic challenges. This is exacerbating regional resource scarcities and vulnerabilities. It will also have direct and indirect impacts on nutrition, human well-being, and health. Reduced agricultural production, lack of access to clean water, sanitation, and clean, sustainable energy are the major areas of concern. The region is already experiencing an upsurge of vector borne diseases (malaria and dengue fever), and water and food-borne diseases (cholera and diarrhoea). What is clear is that climate change impacts are cross-sectoral and multidimensional, and therefore require cross-sectoral mitigation and adaptation approaches. In this regard, a well-coordinated and integrated WEF nexus approach offers opportunities to build resilient systems, harmonise interventions, and mitigate trade-offs and hence improve sustainability. This would be achieved through greater resource mobilisation and coordination, policy convergence across sectors, and targeting nexus points in the landscape. The WEF nexus approach has potential to increase the resilience of marginalised communities in southern Africa by contributing towards attaining the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, and 13).}, }
@article {pmid30346952, year = {2018}, author = {Lord, JS and Hargrove, JW and Torr, SJ and Vale, GA}, title = {Climate change and African trypanosomiasis vector populations in Zimbabwe's Zambezi Valley: A mathematical modelling study.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {e1002675}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002675}, pmid = {30346952}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Quantifying the effects of climate change on the entomological and epidemiological components of vector-borne diseases is an essential part of climate change research, but evidence for such effects remains scant, and predictions rely largely on extrapolation of statistical correlations. We aimed to develop a mechanistic model to test whether recent increases in temperature in the Mana Pools National Park of the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe could account for the simultaneous decline of tsetse flies, the vectors of human and animal trypanosomiasis.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: The model we developed incorporates the effects of temperature on mortality, larviposition, and emergence rates and is fitted to a 27-year time series of tsetse caught from cattle. These catches declined from an average of c. 50 flies per animal per afternoon in 1990 to c. 0.1 in 2017. Since 1975, mean daily temperatures have risen by c. 0.9°C and temperatures in the hottest month of November by c. 2°C. Although our model provided a good fit to the data, it cannot predict whether or when extinction will occur.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The model suggests that the increase in temperature may explain the observed collapse in tsetse abundance and provides a first step in linking temperature to trypanosomiasis risk. If the effect at Mana Pools extends across the whole of the Zambezi Valley, then transmission of trypanosomes is likely to have been greatly reduced in this warm low-lying region. Conversely, rising temperatures may have made some higher, cooler, parts of Zimbabwe more suitable for tsetse and led to the emergence of new disease foci.}, }
@article {pmid30345359, year = {2018}, author = {Zou, CZ and Goldberg, MD and Hao, X}, title = {New generation of U.S. satellite microwave sounder achieves high radiometric stability performance for reliable climate change detection.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {10}, pages = {eaau0049}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aau0049}, pmid = {30345359}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Observations from the satellite microwave sounders play a vital role in measuring the long-term temperature trends for climate change monitoring. Changes in diurnal sampling over time and calibration drift have been the main sources of uncertainties in the satellite-measured temperature trends. We examine observations from the first of a series of U.S. new generation of microwave sounder, the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), which has been flying onboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/NASA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) environmental satellite since late 2011. The SNPP satellite has a stable afternoon orbit that has close to the same local observation time as NASA's Aqua satellite that has been carrying the heritage microwave sounder, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A), from 2002 until the present. The similar overpass timing naturally removes most of their diurnal differences. In addition, direct comparison of temperature anomalies between the two instruments shows little or no relative calibration drift for most channels. Our results suggest that both SNPP/ATMS and Aqua/AMSU-A instruments have achieved absolute stability in the measured atmospheric temperatures within 0.04 K per decade. This uncertainty is small enough to allow reliable detection of the temperature climate trends and help to resolve debate on relevant issues. We also analyze AMSU-A observations onboard the European MetOp-A satellite that has a stable morning orbit 8 hours apart from the SNPP overpass time. Their comparison reveals large asymmetric trends between day and night in the lower- and mid-tropospheric temperatures over land. This information could help to improve climate data records for temperature trend detection with improved accuracy. The SNPP satellite will be followed by four NOAA operational Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites, providing accurate and stable measurement for decades to come. The primary mission of JPSS is for weather forecasting. Now, with the added feature of stable orbits, JPSS observations can also be used to monitor changes in climate with much lower uncertainty than the previous generation of NOAA operational satellites.}, }
@article {pmid30345319, year = {2018}, author = {Lefohn, AS and Malley, CS and Smith, L and Wells, B and Hazucha, M and Simon, H and Naik, V and Mills, G and Schultz, MG and Paoletti, E and De Marco, A and Xu, X and Zhang, L and Wang, T and Neufeld, HS and Musselman, RC and Tarasick, D and Brauer, M and Feng, Z and Tang, H and Kobayashi, K and Sicard, P and Solberg, S and Gerosa, G}, title = {Tropospheric ozone assessment report: Global ozone metrics for climate change, human health, and crop/ecosystem research.}, journal = {Elementa (Washington, D.C.)}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1525/elementa.279}, pmid = {30345319}, issn = {2325-1026}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Assessment of spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of ozone on human health, vegetation, and climate requires appropriate metrics. A key component of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is the consistent calculation of these metrics at thousands of monitoring sites globally. Investigating temporal trends in these metrics required that the same statistical methods be applied across these ozone monitoring sites. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test (for significant trends) and the Theil-Sen estimator (for estimating the magnitude of trend) were selected to provide robust methods across all sites. This paper provides the scientific underpinnings necessary to better understand the implications of and rationale for selecting a specific TOAR metric for assessing spatial and temporal variation in ozone for a particular impact. The rationale and underlying research evidence that influence the derivation of specific metrics are given. The form of 25 metrics (4 for model-measurement comparison, 5 for characterization of ozone in the free troposphere, 11 for human health impacts, and 5 for vegetation impacts) are described. Finally, this study categorizes health and vegetation exposure metrics based on the extent to which they are determined only by the highest hourly ozone levels, or by a wider range of values. The magnitude of the metrics is influenced by both the distribution of hourly average ozone concentrations at a site location, and the extent to which a particular metric is determined by relatively low, moderate, and high hourly ozone levels. Hence, for the same ozone time series, changes in the distribution of ozone concentrations can result in different changes in the magnitude and direction of trends for different metrics. Thus, dissimilar conclusions about the effect of changes in the drivers of ozone variability (e.g., precursor emissions) on health and vegetation exposure can result from the selection of different metrics.}, }
@article {pmid30344117, year = {2018}, author = {Mao, Y and Economo, EP and Satoh, N}, title = {The Roles of Introgression and Climate Change in the Rise to Dominance of Acropora Corals.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2018.08.061}, pmid = {30344117}, issn = {1879-0445}, abstract = {Reef-building corals provide the structural basis for one of Earth's most spectacular and diverse-but increasingly threatened-ecosystems. Modern Indo-Pacific reefs are dominated by species of the staghorn coral genus Acropora, but the evolutionary and ecological factors associated with their diversification and rise to dominance are unclear. Recent work on evolutionary radiations has demonstrated the importance of introgression and ecological opportunity in promoting diversification and ecological success. Here, we analyze the genomes of five staghorn coral species to examine the roles of introgression and ecological opportunity in the rise to dominance of Acropora. We found evidence for a history marked by a major introgression event as well as recurrent gene flow across species. In addition, we found that genes with topologies mismatching the species tree are evolving faster, which is suggestive of a role for introgression in spreading adaptive genetic variation. Demographic analysis showed that Acropora lineages profited from climate-driven mass extinctions in the Plio-Pleistocene, indicating that Acropora exploited ecological opportunity opened by a new climatic regime favoring species that could cope with rapid sea-level changes. Collectively, the genomes of reef-building corals have recorded an evolutionary history shaped by introgression and climate change, suggesting that Acropora-among most vulnerable corals to stressors-may be critical for understanding how reefs track the impending rapid sea-level changes of the Anthropocene.}, }
@article {pmid30342323, year = {2018}, author = {Liao, W and Yang, L and Zhong, S and Hess, JJ and Wang, Q and Bao, J and Huang, C}, title = {Preparing the next generation of health professionals to tackle climate change: Are China's medical students ready?.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {168}, number = {}, pages = {270-277}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2018.10.006}, pmid = {30342323}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Medical students will lead the health sector responses and adaptation efforts in the near future, yet little is known in China about their knowledge, perceptions and preparedness to meet these challenges.<br><br>METHODS: A nationwide study was conducted at five medical universities across different regions of China using a two-stage stratified cluster sampling design. A self-administered questionnaire was applied to collect the information including perception, preparedness and educational needs in response to climate change. The data were first analyzed descriptively, then chi-square tests and kruskal wallis tests were applied to determined differences among subgroups, and logistic regression analysis were deployed to detect the socio-demographic factors influencing student's perception.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 1436 medical students were approached and 1387 participated in the study (96.6% response rate). Most students were aware of the health impacts because of climate change, with over 90% perceived air quality-related and heat-related illness, while only a small part identified undernutrition and mental health. Approximately 90% embraced their role in tackling climate change, but 50% reported themselves and the health sectors were not adequately prepared. Compared to clinical students, preventive medicine students were more likely to perceive their responsibility to address climate change (OR:1.36, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.78). Also, 80% students admitted insufficient information and knowledge on climate change and health. Most students agreed that climate change and its health impacts should be included into their current curriculum.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Medical students in China were aware of climate change and felt responsible, but were not ready to make responses to its health impacts. Educational efforts should reinforce eco-medical literacy development and capacity building in the era of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30341722, year = {2018}, author = {Abid, M and Scheffran, J and Schneider, UA and Elahi, E}, title = {Farmer Perceptions of Climate Change, Observed Trends and Adaptation of Agriculture in Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-018-1113-7}, pmid = {30341722}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Farmers' willingness and ability to adapt agricultural systems depend on their knowledge about changes in climate and perceived risks of extreme events. Using cross-sectional data of 450 farmers collected from three agro-ecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan, this study investigates farmer perceptions of climate change and their agreement with observed climatic trends. In addition, this study explores the correlation between different adaptation stages (perceptions, intentions, and adaptation) and their key drivers using a Multivariate Probit Model. This study also explores the adaptation measures adopted by farmers. The results of the study show that the perceptions of increasing mean temperature match well with locally recorded data. However, a discrepancy is found in some cases between farmer perceptions of rainfall changes and local climate records. Moreover, education, experience, land tenure, land holdings, extension, cooperation, access to weather forecasting, and marketing information are the factors influencing the three adaptation stages. A strong association is found among the three adaptation stages. Particularly, the study confirms the hypothesis that accurate perceptions lead to stronger adaptation intentions compared to underestimated or no perceptions. Further, farmers prefer basic adaptation measures including changing crop varieties, input use and planting dates over advanced measures, such as planting shade trees, soil conservation, and crop diversification. The study recommends providing farmers, especially small landholders and tenants, easy access to information, institutional services and training on the use of advanced measures to reduce negative impacts of climate change at the farm level.}, }
@article {pmid30337544, year = {2018}, author = {Sirois-Delisle, C and Kerr, JT}, title = {Climate change-driven range losses among bumblebee species are poised to accelerate.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {14464}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-32665-y}, pmid = {30337544}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change has shaped bee distributions over the past century. Here, we conducted the first species-specific assessment of future climate change impacts on North American bumblebee distributions, using the most recent global change scenarios developed in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We assessed potential shifts in bumblebee species distributions with models generated using Maxent. We tested different assumptions about bumblebee species' dispersal capacities, drawing on observed patterns of range shifts to date, dispersal rates observed for bumblebee queens, and, lastly, assuming unlimited dispersal. Models show significant contractions of current ranges even under scenarios in which dispersal rates were high. Results suggest that dispersal rates may not suffice for bumblebees to track climate change as rapidly as required under any IPCC scenario for future climate change. Areas where species losses are projected overlap for many species and climate scenarios, and are concentrated in eastern parts of the continent. Models also show overlap for range expansions across many species, suggesting the presence of &quot;hotspots&quot; where management activities could benefit many species, across all climate scenarios. Broad-scale strategies are likely to be necessary to improve bumblebee conservation prospects under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30334034, year = {2018}, author = {Piacentini, RD and Della Ceca, LS and Ipiña, A}, title = {Climate change and its relationship with non-melanoma skin cancers.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1039/c7pp00405b}, pmid = {30334034}, issn = {1474-9092}, abstract = {Climate change is affecting both the environment and human behaviour. One significant impact is related to health, as detailed in the IPCC 2014 report. In the present work, and as a contribution to this commemorative special issue to Prof. Dr Jan van der Leun, we present the results of the squamous (SCC) and basal-cell carcinoma (BCC) incidence change in relation to the ambient temperature increase. This increase is produced by global warming, mainly induced by anthropogenic atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases. We have broadened a previous study conducted by van der Leun et al. (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2008, 7, 730-733), by analysing the effective carcinogenicity of UV dose, for the period 2000-2200 and four climate change scenarios (called RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The corresponding percentage increases of the incidence of SCC for 2100 are 5.8, 10.4, 13.8 and 21.4%, and for 2200 they are 4.3, 12.1, 19.0 and 40.5%. In a similar way, the percentage increases of the incidence of BCC for 2100 are 2.8, 4.9, 6.5 and 9.9% and for 2200 they are 2.0, 5.8, 8.9 and 18.2%. We report the SCC and BCC percentage effective incidence results as a function of time, for the whole 21st century and we extended the analysis to the 22nd century, since people possibly affected (like the Z and T generations, born at the beginning of this century) will have a life expectancy extending up to the final decades of the present century and even to the first ones of the next century.}, }
@article {pmid30333846, year = {2018}, author = {Holopainen, JK and Virjamo, V and Ghimire, RP and Blande, JD and Julkunen-Tiitto, R and Kivimäenpää, M}, title = {Climate Change Effects on Secondary Compounds of Forest Trees in the Northern Hemisphere.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1445}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.01445}, pmid = {30333846}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Plant secondary compounds (PSCs), also called secondary metabolites, have high chemical and structural diversity and appear as non-volatile or volatile compounds. These compounds may have evolved to have specific physiological and ecological functions in the adaptation of plants to their growth environment. PSCs are produced by several metabolic pathways and many PSCs are specific for a few plant genera or families. In forest ecosystems, full-grown trees constitute the majority of plant biomass and are thus capable of producing significant amounts of PSCs. We summarize older literature and review recent progress in understanding the effects of abiotic and biotic factors on PSC production of forest trees and PSC behavior in forest ecosystems. The roles of different PSCs under stress and their important role in protecting plants against abiotic and biotic factors are also discussed. There was strong evidence that major climate change factors, CO2 and warming, have contradictory effects on the main PSC groups. CO2 increases phenolic compounds in foliage, but limits terpenoids in foliage and emissions. Warming decreases phenolic compounds in foliage but increases terpenoids in foliage and emissions. Other abiotic stresses have more variable effects. PSCs may help trees to adapt to a changing climate and to pressure from current and invasive pests and pathogens. Indirect adaptation comes via the effects of PSCs on soil chemistry and nutrient cycling, the formation of cloud condensation nuclei from tree volatiles and by CO2 sequestration into PSCs in the wood of living and dead forest trees.}, }
@article {pmid30332816, year = {2018}, author = {Gong, B and Weng, B and Yan, D and Qin, T and Wang, H and Bi, W}, title = {Variation of Hydrothermal Conditions under Climate Change in Naqu Prefecture, Tibet Plateau, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15102271}, pmid = {30332816}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {91547209//Chinese National Natural Science Foundation/ ; 41571037//Chinese National Natural Science Foundation/ ; 2016YFA0601503//National Key Research and Development Project/ ; }, abstract = {Analysis of the suitability of hydrothermal conditions for vegetation growth would benefit the ecological barrier construction, water resources protection and climate change adaptation. The suitability of hydrothermal conditions in Naqu Prefecture was studied based on the spatial displacement of 500 mm precipitation and 2000 °C accumulated temperature contours. Results showed that the 500 mm precipitation contour had a shifting trend toward the southwest, with a 3.3-year and 7.1-year period, respectively, in the longitudinal and latitudinal direction, and the longitude changed suddenly around 1996. The 2000 °C accumulated temperature contour had a shifting trend toward the northwest, with a 1.8-year period and a 7-year sub-period in the longitudinal direction; the longitude had a catastrophe point between 1966 and 1967, while the latitude had a catastrophe point between 2005 and 2006. When located in the same vegetation zone, the annual precipitation in Naqu Prefecture was higher than the national average, while the accumulated temperature was lower than the national average, indicating that areas with suitable hydrothermal conditions suitable for vegetation growth showed a northwestward shift tendency. This research would help to support some recommendations for plants' ecological system protection in alpine areas, and also provide guidelines for climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid30332777, year = {2018}, author = {Butler, CD}, title = {Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989⁻2013).}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15102266}, pmid = {30332777}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Background: Anthropogenic global warming, interacting with social and other environmental determinants, constitutes a profound health risk. This paper reports a comprehensive literature review for 1989⁻2013 (inclusive), the first 25 years in which this topic appeared in scientific journals. It explores the extent to which articles have identified potentially catastrophic, civilization-endangering health risks associated with climate change. Methods: PubMed and Google Scholar were primarily used to identify articles which were then ranked on a three-point scale. Each score reflected the extent to which papers discussed global systemic risk. Citations were also analyzed. Results: Of 2143 analyzed papers 1546 (72%) were scored as one. Their citations (165,133) were 82% of the total. The proportion of annual papers scored as three was initially high, as were their citations but declined to almost zero by 1996, before rising slightly from 2006. Conclusions: The enormous expansion of the literature appropriately reflects increased understanding of the importance of climate change to global health. However, recognition of the most severe, existential, health risks from climate change was generally low. Most papers instead focused on infectious diseases, direct heat effects and other disciplinary-bounded phenomena and consequences, even though scientific advances have long called for more inter-disciplinary collaboration.}, }
@article {pmid30332438, year = {2018}, author = {Morgounov, A and Sonder, K and Abugalieva, A and Bhadauria, V and Cuthbert, RD and Shamanin, V and Zelenskiy, Y and DePauw, RM}, title = {Effect of climate change on spring wheat yields in North America and Eurasia in 1981-2015 and implications for breeding.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0204932}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0204932}, pmid = {30332438}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Wheat yield dynamic in Canada, USA, Russia and Kazakhstan from 1981 till 2015 was related to air temperature and precipitation during wheat season to evaluate the effects of climate change. The study used yield data from the provinces, states and regions and average yield from 19 spring wheat breeding/research sites. Both at production and research sites grain yield in Eurasia was two times lower compared to North America. The yearly variations in grain yield in North America and Eurasia did not correlate suggesting that higher yield in one region was normally associated with lower yield in another region. Minimum and maximum air temperature during the wheat growing season (April-August) had tendency to increase. While precipitation in April-August increased in North American sites from 289 mm in 1981-1990 to 338 mm in 2006-2015 it remained constant and low at Eurasian sites (230 and 238 mm, respectively). High temperature in June and July negatively affected grain yield in most of the sites at both continents. Climatic changes resulted in substantial changes in the dates of planting and harvesting normally leading to extension of growing season. Longer planting-harvesting period was positively associated with the grain yield for most of the locations. The climatic changes since 1981 and spring wheat responses suggest several implications for breeding. Gradual warming extends the wheat growing season and new varieties need to match this to utilize their potential. Higher rainfall during the wheat season, especially in North America, will require varieties with higher yield potential responding to moisture availability. June is a critical month for spring wheat in both regions due to the significant negative correlation of grain yield with maximum temperature and positive correlation with precipitation. Breeding for adaptation to higher temperatures during this period is an important strategy to increase yield.}, }
@article {pmid30327524, year = {2018}, author = {Warren, M}, title = {Climate change is about to make your beer more expensive.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {562}, number = {7727}, pages = {319-320}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-07015-7}, pmid = {30327524}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30325951, year = {2018}, author = {Zavaleta, C and Berrang-Ford, L and Ford, J and Llanos-Cuentas, A and Cárcamo, C and Ross, NA and Lancha, G and Sherman, M and Harper, SL and , }, title = {Multiple non-climatic drivers of food insecurity reinforce climate change maladaptation trajectories among Peruvian Indigenous Shawi in the Amazon.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0205714}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0205714}, pmid = {30325951}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is affecting food systems globally, with implications for food security, nutrition, and the health of human populations. There are limited data characterizing the current and future consequences of climate change on local food security for populations already experiencing poor nutritional indicators. Indigenous Amazonian populations have a high reported prevalence of nutritional deficiencies. This paper characterizes the food system of the Shawi of the Peruvian Amazon, climatic and non-climatic drivers of their food security vulnerability to climate change, and identifies potential maladaptation trajectories.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: Semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 24), three photovoice workshops (n = 17 individuals), transect walks (n = 2), a food calendar exercise, and two community dissemination meetings (n = 30 individuals), were conducted within two Shawi communities in Balsapuerto District in the Peruvian Loreto region between June and September of 2014. The Shawi food system was based on three main food sub-systems (forest, farming and externally-sourced). Shawi reported collective, gendered, and emotional notions related to their food system activities. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of food security vulnerability among Shawi participants acted at proximal and distal levels, and mutually reinforced key maladaptation trajectories, including: 1) a growing population and natural resource degradation coupled with limited opportunities to increase incomes, and 2) a desire for education and deforestation reinforced by governmental social and food interventions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: A series of maladaptive trajectories have the potential to increase social and nutritional inequities for the Shawi. Transformational food security adaptation should include consideration of Indigenous perceptions and priorities, and should be part of Peruvian food and socioeconomic development policies.}, }
@article {pmid30325145, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, XQ and Li, GQ and DU, S}, title = {Predicting the influence of future climate change on the suitable distribution areas of Elaeagnus angustifolia.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {3213-3220}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201810.018}, pmid = {30325145}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {Climate change significantly affects geographic distribution of plants worldwide. Understanding the influence of climate change on the suitable areas of afforestation tree species in China and taking timely countermeasures are crucial for improving the effectiveness of afforestation. Elaeagnus angustifolia is a good species for ecological restoration of degraded lands and control of desertification. Using MaxEnt and GIS, we predicted the changes of climatically suitable areas of this species under future climate scenarios, based on 182 records from herbaria and published literatures, and 13 climatic factors from BIOCLIM, Holdridge life zone and Kira index. The results showed that the four climate scenarios in 2070s had different effects on the climatically suitable areas of this species. The suitable areas would shrink in the lowest greenhouse gas emission (RCP 2.6) scenario. The shrinking areas were mainly located in the edge of the currently suitable areas in the northwest. The suitable areas would expand in the lower (RCP 4.5), the higher (RCP 6.0) and the highest (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The expanding areas were mainly located in the northwestern arid regions of warm temperate zone, and northeastern sub-humid regions of middle temperate zone. There were obvious expansions in the northern arid and semi-arid regions of middle temperate zone, and southern humid regions of north-subtropical zone under RCP 8.5 scenario. The geographical centroids of future suitable ranges would move with a speed of 6-19 km·(10 a)-1. The altitudinal centroids were predicted to move to lower regions with a speed of 3-20 m·(10 a)-1. The stably suitable areas accounted for 83%-98% of the current distribution ranges of this species, which were generally stable under future climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30322040, year = {2018}, author = {Levison, MM and Butler, AJ and Rebellato, S and Armstrong, B and Whelan, M and Gardner, C}, title = {Development of a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Using a Public Health Lens to Determine Local Health Vulnerabilities: An Ontario Health Unit Experience.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15102237}, pmid = {30322040}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {n/a//Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-term Care/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is negatively impacting the health of Canadians and is accordingly expected to have a significant impact on public health agencies and their response to these health impacts throughout the twenty-first century. While national and international research and assessments have explored the potential human health impacts of climate change, few assessments have explored the implications of climate change from a local public health perspective. An applied research approach to expand local knowledge and action of health vulnerabilities through a climate change action plan and vulnerability assessment was utilized by a local public health agency. Adoption and adaptation of the approach used may be valuable for public health organizations to assist their communities. Through completing a vulnerability assessment, an evidentiary base was generated for public health to inform adaptation actions to reduce negative health impacts and increase resiliency. Challenges in completing vulnerability assessments at the local level include the framing and scoping of health impacts and associated indicators, as well as access to internal expertise surrounding the analysis of data. While access to quantitative data may be limiting at the local level, qualitative data can enhance knowledge of local impacts, while also supporting the creation of key partnerships with community stakeholders which can ensure climate action continues beyond the scope of the vulnerability assessment.}, }
@article {pmid30321724, year = {2018}, author = {Aubin, D and Riche, C and Vande Water, V and La Jeunesse, I}, title = {The adaptive capacity of local water basin authorities to climate change: The Thau lagoon basin in France.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2013-2023}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.078}, pmid = {30321724}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change exacerbates climate variability, and makes water governance more complex. The French local water management plans (SAGE) developed an integrated approach that relies on a balance between bottom-up and top-down governance. The aim of this article is to question the actual role of the local basin authorities and ask whether they are central in water governance. The Social Network Analysis of the Thau basin shows that the key actors of the SAGE, namely the Rhone-Mediterranean-Corsica Water Agency, the local water agency and the local water commission, are the most powerful actors in the management of the river basin and play a crucial brokerage role in climate change adaptation. Integrated water resource management shifted power from territorial and central authorities to functional and local managers.}, }
@article {pmid30318097, year = {2018}, author = {Balasubramanian, M}, title = {Climate change, famine, and low-income communities challenge Sustainable Development Goals.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {10}, pages = {e421-e422}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30212-2}, pmid = {30318097}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid30317170, year = {2018}, author = {Huang, L and Liao, FH and Lohse, KA and Larson, DM and Fragkias, M and Lybecker, DL and Baxter, CV}, title = {Land conservation can mitigate freshwater ecosystem services degradation due to climate change in a semiarid catchment: The case of the Portneuf River catchment, Idaho, USA.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1796-1809}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.260}, pmid = {30317170}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {There is increasing evidence of environmental change impacts on freshwater ecosystem services especially through land use and climate change. However, little is known about how land conservation could help mitigate adverse water-sustainability impacts. In this paper, we utilized the InVEST tool and the Residual Trends method to assess the joint effects and relative contributions of climate change and land conservation on freshwater ecosystem services in the Portneuf River catchment in Idaho, USA. We developed five hypothesized scenarios regarding gain and loss in the enrollment of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the largest agricultural land-retirement program in the U.S., plus riparian buffer and assessed their interactions with climate change. Results suggest that the realized water yield in the Portneuf River catchment would possibly be 56% less due to climate change and 24% less due to the decline of CRP enrollment. On the contrary, if CRP enrollment is promoted by ~30% and riparian buffer protection is implemented, the water supply reduction in the year 2050 could be changed from 56% to 26%, the total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) export would be reduced by 10% and 11%, and the total suspended sediment (TSS) reduced by 17%. This study suggests that increasing implementation of the CRP would likely preserve key freshwater ecosystem services and assist proactive mitigation, especially for semiarid regions vulnerable to changing climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30316094, year = {2018}, author = {Kosai, S and Yamasue, E}, title = {Global warming potential and total material requirement in metal production: Identification of changes in environmental impact through metal substitution.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1764-1775}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.085}, pmid = {30316094}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In view of the increasing demand for metal use, it is of significant importance to evaluate the environmental impact of metal production. The global warming potential (GWP) in the process of metal production has often been focused upon as a major indicator for evaluating the burden on the environment. Moreover, the environmental impact and mineral exploitation arising from metal ore mining activities, which generate unavoidable mine wastes and have an impact on the ecological biodiversity, cannot be ignored. The major factors for determining the intensity of resource exploitation being the ore grades and strip ratio, the existing indicators for land use employed in the life cycle assessment (LCA) may not fully cover the criteria of the impact of metal mining on the environmental system. Therefore, this study employs the method of total material requirement (TMR) assessment, involving not only the direct and indirect material inputs but also the hidden flows, which are particularly associated with mine wastes. Firstly, the methodology of computing the TMR in the process of metal production is developed. Next, the relation between the GWP and TMR for 58 metals is assessed and finally, the environmental impact through metal substitutes is evaluated from the perspectives of the GWP and TMR. This analysis could identify some of the aspects overlooked in the previous environmental criteria that were concentrating on greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. The developed algorithm may be useful in identifying appropriate metal substitutes, considering the environmental impact.}, }
@article {pmid30315649, year = {2018}, author = {Rugiu, L and Manninen, I and Rothäusler, E and Jormalainen, V}, title = {Tolerance to climate change of the clonally reproducing endemic Baltic seaweed, Fucus radicans: is phenotypic plasticity enough?.}, journal = {Journal of phycology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jpy.12796}, pmid = {30315649}, issn = {1529-8817}, abstract = {To predict the effects of climate change, we first need information on both the current tolerance ranges of species and their future adaptive potential. Adaptive responses may originate either in genetic variation or in phenotypic plasticity, but the relative importance of these factors is poorly understood. Here, we tested the tolerance of Fucus radicans to the combination of hyposalinity and warming projected by climate models for 2070-2099. We measured the growth and survival responses of thalli in both current and future conditions, focusing on variations in tolerance among and within different clonal lineages. Survival was 32% lower in future than in current conditions, but the weight and length of the thalli who survived was respectively 267% and 178% higher when exposed to future conditions. The relatively high tolerance to the future conditions suggests that F. radicans is likely to persist in its current distributional range, which is limited to the Gulf of Bothia and Estonian coast in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, this species may be able to expand its distribution southwards and replace its congener F. vesiculosus, which, in previous studies, has not tolerated the future conditions as well. In addition, we discovered variation in tolerance to future conditions within one of the clonal lineages, which have been hitherto presumed to lack adaptive variation. The discovery of intra-clonal phenotypic plasticity means that this alga has the potential for adaptive responses to climate change, which may be the key to the future persistence of F. radicans in the Baltic Sea. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30312341, year = {2018}, author = {Skelsey, P and Humphris, SN and Campbell, EJ and Toth, IK}, title = {Threat of establishment of non-indigenous potato blackleg and tuber soft rot pathogens in Great Britain under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0205711}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0205711}, pmid = {30312341}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Potato blackleg and soft rot caused by Pectobacterium and Dickeya species are among the most significant bacterial diseases affecting potato production globally. In this study we estimate the impact of future temperatures on establishment of non-indigenous but confirmed Pectobacterium and Dickeya species in Great Britain (GB). The calculations are based on probabilistic climate change data and a model fitted to disease severity data from a controlled environment tuber assay with the dominant potato blackleg and soft rot-causing species in GB (P. atrosepticum), and three of the main causative agents in Europe (P. carotovorum subsp. brasiliense, P. parmentieri, Dickeya solani). Our aim was to investigate if the European strains could become stronger competitors in the GB potato ecosystem as the climate warms, on the basis of their aggressiveness in tubers at different temperatures. Principally, we found that the tissue macerating capacity of all four pathogens will increase in GB under all emissions scenarios. The predominant Pectobacterium and Dickeya species in Europe are able to cause disease in tubers under field conditions currently seen in GB but are not expected to become widely established in the future, at least on the basis of their aggressiveness in tubers relative to P. atrosepticum under GB conditions. Our key take-home messages are that the GB potato industry is well positioned to continue to thrive via current best management practices and continued reinforcement of existing legislation.}, }
@article {pmid30308889, year = {2019}, author = {Vrzel, J and Ludwig, R and Gampe, D and Ogrinc, N}, title = {Hydrological system behaviour of an alluvial aquifer under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {649}, number = {}, pages = {1179-1188}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.396}, pmid = {30308889}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In this paper, we present an assessment of the sensitivity of groundwater-surface water interactions to climate change in an alluvial aquifer, located in the Ljubljansko polje, Slovenia. The investigation is motivated by a recent assessment of climate change pressures on the water balance in the Sava River Basin (Gampe et al., 2016). The assessment was performed using a comprehensive hydrological modelling approach, which is based on the direct/indirect communication between FEFLOW and WaSiM/MIKE 11. This modelling framework provides a precise simulation of the critical processes in the study domain, which are the main drivers influencing the interactions between precipitation, river water and groundwater under different future climate scenarios. Climate projections were based on the results of the three regional climate models SMHI-RCA4, KNMI-RACMO22E and CLMcom-CCLM4. The results show that there will be higher levels of local precipitation during 2036-2065, the projected river discharge will be larger in the future compared to 2000-2014, and it is unlikely that the Ljubljansko polje will suffer from water scarcity. In addition, amongst the various sections of the Sava River the section between Črnuče and Šentjakob is the one most sensitive to climate change. By running the models under different climate scenarios a deeper insight into aquifer system functioning was obtained. Investigating impacts of climate change on groundwater and interactions between surface water and groundwater on the local scale is a basis for applying such a study on the global scale, which was still not very well investigated.}, }
@article {pmid30308832, year = {2019}, author = {Dong, Z and Driscoll, CT and Campbell, JL and Pourmokhtarian, A and Stoner, AMK and Hayhoe, K}, title = {Projections of water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics under future climate change in an alpine tundra ecosystem in the southern Rocky Mountains using a biogeochemical model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {1451-1464}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.151}, pmid = {30308832}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Using statistically downscaled future climate scenarios and a version of the biogeochemical model (PnET-BGC) that was modified for use in the alpine tundra, we investigated changes in water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics under the Representative Concentration Pathways at Niwot Ridge in Colorado, USA. Our simulations indicate that future hydrology will become more water-limited over the short-term due to the temperature-induced increases in leaf conductance, but remains energy-limited over the longer term because of anticipated future decreases in leaf area and increases in annual precipitation. The seasonal distribution of the water supply will become decoupled from energy inputs due to advanced snowmelt, causing soil moisture stress to plants during the growing season. Decreases in summer soil moisture are projected to not only affect leaf production, but also reduce decomposition of soil organic matter in summer despite increasing temperature. Advanced future snowmelt in spring and increasing rain to snow ratio in fall are projected to increase soil moisture and decomposition of soil organic matter. The extended growing season is projected to increase carbon sequestration by 2% under the high radiative forcing scenario, despite a 31% reduction in leaf display due to the soil moisture stress. Our analyses demonstrate that future nitrogen uptake by alpine plants is regulated by nitrogen supply from mineralization, but plant nitrogen demand may also affect plant uptake under the warmer scenario. PnET-BGC simulations also suggest that potential CO2 effects on alpine plants are projected to cause larger increases in plant carbon storage than leaf and root production.}, }
@article {pmid30308814, year = {2019}, author = {Byun, K and Chiu, CM and Hamlet, AF}, title = {Effects of 21st century climate change on seasonal flow regimes and hydrologic extremes over the Midwest and Great Lakes region of the US.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {1261-1277}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.063}, pmid = {30308814}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Analyzing future changes in hydrologic extremes such as floods, low flows, and soil moisture extremes is important because many impacts on ecosystems and human systems occur during extreme events. To quantify changes in hydrologic extremes, this study conducts hydrologic modeling experiments over 20 Midwestern watersheds using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced by historical observed datasets and future projections from statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) simulations. Our results show that peak daily streamflow at the 100-yr reoccurrence interval will increase (+10-30%) in most watersheds by 2080s due to significant increases in precipitation (P) and increasing P as rainfall during winter and spring seasons. The simulations also show strong shifts towards earlier peak flow timing (up to a month), especially in strongly snowmelt-dominated watersheds. These effects are linked to strong decreasing trends in maximum Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) with warming, which are simulated over essentially the entire domain. Projected changes in 7-day extreme low flows are smaller in magnitude (-10-+10%) with somewhat larger decreases simulated at the end of century; however, the timing of extreme low flows is projected to shift from winter/spring to summer and fall in strongly snowmelt-dominated watersheds in the northernmost parts of the domain. Extreme low soil moisture increases over most of the domain in the future projections up to the 2050s, but by the 2080s there are more widespread decreases in extreme low soil moisture, especially in the northernmost parts of the domain.}, }
@article {pmid30305760, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Economics Nobel for climate change, Hubble trouble and open-access ups and downs.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {562}, number = {7726}, pages = {168-169}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06954-5}, pmid = {30305760}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30301994, year = {2018}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {IPCC says limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will require drastic action.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {562}, number = {7726}, pages = {172-173}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06876-2}, pmid = {30301994}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30301717, year = {2018}, author = {Balakrishnan, VS}, title = {Global warming: experts demand urgent action to prevent public health crisis.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {k4241}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.k4241}, pmid = {30301717}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid30301052, year = {2018}, author = {Warwick, RM and Tweedley, JR and Potter, IC}, title = {Microtidal estuaries warrant special management measures that recognise their critical vulnerability to pollution and climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {135}, number = {}, pages = {41-46}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.06.062}, pmid = {30301052}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {Not all estuaries are equally susceptible to anthropogenic perturbation. Microtidal estuaries with long residence times are intrinsically less robust than well-flushed macrotidal estuaries, facilitating the accumulation of contaminants. This promotes development of blooms of non-toxic and toxic phytoplankton, and hypoxia and anoxia may occur in deeper sections of the typically stratified water column. In Mediterranean and arid climates, high temperatures and low and/or seasonal rainfall can result in marked hypersalinity. Thus, any increase in anthropogenic perturbation will further decrease the health of a system in which the biota already experiences natural stress. Microtidal estuaries are also more susceptible to climate change, the detrimental longer-term effects of which are becoming manifestly obvious. Numerous attempts have been made to develop novel solutions to problems caused by eutrophication, phytoplankton blooms, hypoxia and hypersalinity, which have met with various levels of success, but the need for such measures and effective legislation is increasingly critical.}, }
@article {pmid30300346, year = {2018}, author = {Gross, L}, title = {Confronting climate change in the age of denial.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {e3000033}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pbio.3000033}, pmid = {30300346}, issn = {1545-7885}, abstract = {This Editorial introduces a Collection of articles in which the authors explore the challenges and pitfalls of communicating the science of climate change in an atmosphere where evidence doesn't matter.}, }
@article {pmid30298082, year = {2018}, author = {Malacarne, G and Pilati, S and Valentini, S and Asnicar, F and Moretto, M and Sonego, P and Masera, L and Cavecchia, V and Blanzieri, E and Moser, C}, title = {Discovering Causal Relationships in Grapevine Expression Data to Expand Gene Networks. A Case Study: Four Networks Related to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1385}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.01385}, pmid = {30298082}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {In recent years the scientific community has been heavily engaged in studying the grapevine response to climate change. Final goal is the identification of key genetic traits to be used in grapevine breeding and the setting of agronomic practices to improve climatic resilience. The increasing availability of transcriptomic studies, describing gene expression in many tissues and developmental, or treatment conditions, have allowed the implementation of gene expression compendia, which enclose a huge amount of information. The mining of transcriptomic data represents an effective approach to expand a known local gene network (LGN) by finding new related genes. We recently published a pipeline based on the iterative application of the PC-algorithm, named NES2RA, to expand gene networks in Escherichia coli and Arabidopsis thaliana. Here, we propose the application of this method to the grapevine transcriptomic compendium Vespucci, in order to expand four LGNs related to the grapevine response to climate change. Two networks are related to the secondary metabolic pathways for anthocyanin and stilbenoid synthesis, involved in the response to solar radiation, whereas the other two are signaling networks, related to the hormones abscisic acid and ethylene, possibly involved in the regulation of cell water balance and cuticle transpiration. The expansion networks produced by NES2RA algorithm have been evaluated by comparison with experimental data and biological knowledge on the identified genes showing fairly good consistency of the results. In addition, the algorithm was effective in retaining only the most significant interactions among the genes providing a useful framework for experimental validation. The application of the NES2RA to Vitis vinifera expression data by means of the BOINC-based implementation is available upon request (valter.cavecchia@cnr.it).}, }
@article {pmid30297481, year = {2018}, author = {Fontes, CG and Dawson, TE and Jardine, K and McDowell, N and Gimenez, BO and Anderegg, L and Negrón-Juárez, R and Higuchi, N and Fine, PVA and Araújo, AC and Chambers, JQ}, title = {Dry and hot: the hydraulic consequences of a climate change-type drought for Amazonian trees.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {373}, number = {1760}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0209}, pmid = {30297481}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {How plants respond physiologically to leaf warming and low water availability may determine how they will perform under future climate change. In 2015-2016, an unprecedented drought occurred across Amazonia with record-breaking high temperatures and low soil moisture, offering a unique opportunity to evaluate the performances of Amazonian trees to a severe climatic event. We quantified the responses of leaf water potential, sap velocity, whole-tree hydraulic conductance (Kwt), turgor loss and xylem embolism, during and after the 2015-2016 El Niño for five canopy-tree species. Leaf/xylem safety margins (SMs), sap velocity and Kwt showed a sharp drop during warm periods. SMs were negatively correlated with vapour pressure deficit, but had no significant relationship with soil water storage. Based on our calculations of canopy stomatal and xylem resistances, the decrease in sap velocity and Kwt was due to a combination of xylem cavitation and stomatal closure. Our results suggest that warm droughts greatly amplify the degree of trees' physiological stress and can lead to mortality. Given the extreme nature of the 2015-2016 El Niño and that temperatures are predicted to increase, this work can serve as a case study of the possible impact climate warming can have on tropical trees.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.}, }
@article {pmid30297424, year = {2018}, author = {Obradovich, N and Migliorini, R and Paulus, MP and Rahwan, I}, title = {Empirical evidence of mental health risks posed by climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {43}, pages = {10953-10958}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1801528115}, pmid = {30297424}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Sound mental health-a critical facet of human wellbeing-has the potential to be undermined by climate change. Few large-scale studies have empirically examined this hypothesis. Here, we show that short-term exposure to more extreme weather, multiyear warming, and tropical cyclone exposure each associate with worsened mental health. To do so, we couple meteorological and climatic data with reported mental health difficulties drawn from nearly 2 million randomly sampled US residents between 2002 and 2012. We find that shifting from monthly temperatures between 25 °C and 30 °C to >30 °C increases the probability of mental health difficulties by 0.5% points, that 1°C of 5-year warming associates with a 2% point increase in the prevalence of mental health issues, and that exposure to Hurricane Katrina associates with a 4% point increase in this metric. Our analyses provide added quantitative support for the conclusion that environmental stressors produced by climate change pose threats to human mental health.}, }
@article {pmid30296777, year = {2019}, author = {Augustynczik, ALD and Asbeck, T and Basile, M and Bauhus, J and Storch, I and Mikusiński, G and Yousefpour, R and Hanewinkel, M}, title = {Diversification of forest management regimes secures tree microhabitats and bird abundance under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2717-2730}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.366}, pmid = {30296777}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The loss of biodiversity in temperate forests due to combined effect of climate change and forest management poses a major threat to the functioning of these ecosystems in the future. Climate change is expected to modify ecological processes and amplify disturbances, compromising the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services. Here we investigate the impacts of climate change and forest management on the abundance of tree microhabitats and forest birds as biodiversity proxies, using an integrated modelling approach. To perform our analysis, we calibrated tree microhabitat and bird abundance in a forest landscape in Southwestern Germany, and coupled them with a climate sensitive forest growth model. Our results show generally positive impacts of climate warming and higher harvesting intensity on bird abundance, with up to 30% increase. Conversely, climate change and wood removals above 5% of the standing volume led to a loss of tree microhabitats. A diversified set of management regimes with different harvesting intensities applied in a landscape scale was required to balance this trade-off. For example, to maximize the expected bird abundance (up to 11%) and to avoid tree microhabitat abundance loss of >20% necessitates setting aside 10.2% of the forest area aside and application of harvesting intensities < 10.4% of the standing volume. We conclude that promoting forest structural complexity by diversifying management regimes across the landscape will be key to maintain forest biodiversity in temperate forests under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30296775, year = {2019}, author = {Nilawar, AP and Waikar, ML}, title = {Impacts of climate change on streamflow and sediment concentration under RCP 4.5 and 8.5: A case study in Purna river basin, India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2685-2696}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.334}, pmid = {30296775}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change has a significant effect on various hydrological processes in a large river basin. The assessment of these processes is also useful for water resource management and long-term sustainability of any hydrological project. In this study, an attempt is made to quantify the effects of climate change on streamflow and sediment concentration in the Purna river basin, India. Three Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 for the four future periods of P1 (2009-2031), P2 (2032-2053), P3 (2054-2075) and P4 (2076-2099) are considered. Differences in scenarios are compared with the base period 1980-2005. The SWAT is used on monthly basis for the period 1980 to 2005 with calibration period 1980 to 1994 and validation period 1995 to 2005. The projected precipitation and temperature show a significant increasing trend compared to the baseline condition for both RCPs. Similarly, the average monthly streamflow is projected to increase by 24.47 to 115.94m3/s whereas average monthly sediment concentration by 32.58 to 162.96mg/l under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. In particular, streamflow and sediment are expected to increase significantly from June to September at the outlet of the basin. The study results give insight into future hydrological scenarios which will be useful for policy makers to implement effective water resource strategies.}, }
@article {pmid30296610, year = {2018}, author = {Shen, R and Ye, ZC and Gao, J and Hou, YP and Ye, H}, title = {Climate change risk perception in global: Correlation with petroleum and liver disease: A meta-analysis.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {166}, number = {}, pages = {453-461}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2018.09.080}, pmid = {30296610}, issn = {1090-2414}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Liver diseases have been bound to environmental factors, inclusive of air pollution. The exposure of workers to petrochemicals counts as a possible cause of Liver diseases, whereas results are inconsistent with the previous studies. In this study, a meta-analysis is conducted to assess the pooled risk.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDING: A systematic search was performed by related researchers. Correlations are analyzed among petroleum and liver cirrhosis mortality, fatty liver, alanine amino transferase (abbreviated as ALT), aspartate amino transferase (abbreviated as AST). Pooled risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and effect size(ES) with 95% confidence interval are calculated. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias are also tested. Data are analyzed from 5 studies involving 296 participants. Results are incorporated through adopting a random effects meta-analysis. Working in a petrochemical plant shall not increase the death risk posed by cirrhosis (RR = 0.44, 95% CI [0.36; 0.54]). Yet the incidence of fatty liver increases (RR = 1.22, 95% CI [1.21; 1.23]). Abnormal incidence of ALT and AST also increases.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Occupational exposure plays an important role in causing ALT abnormalities and fatty liver among oil workers, but not a risk factor of cirrhosis, AST abnormalities and liver cancer.}, }
@article {pmid30295401, year = {2018}, author = {Kwiatkowski, L and Aumont, O and Bopp, L}, title = {Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14468}, pmid = {30295401}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {The impact of climate change on the marine food web is highly uncertain. Nonetheless, there is growing consensus that global marine primary production will decline in response to future climate change, largely due to increased stratification reducing the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean. Evidence to date suggests a potential amplification of this response throughout the trophic food web, with more dramatic responses at higher trophic levels. Here we show that trophic amplification of marine biomass declines is a consistent feature of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models, across different scenarios of future climate change. Under the business-as-usual Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) global mean phytoplankton biomass is projected to decline by 6.1 ± 2.5% over the twenty-first century, while zooplankton biomass declines by 13.6 ± 3.0%. All models project greater relative declines in zooplankton than phytoplankton, with annual zooplankton biomass anomalies 2.24 ± 1.03 times those of phytoplankton. The low latitude oceans drive the projected trophic amplification of biomass declines, with models exhibiting variable trophic interactions in the mid-to-high latitudes and similar relative changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Under the assumption that zooplankton biomass is prey limited, an analytical explanation of the trophic amplification that occurs in the low latitudes can be derived from generic plankton differential equations. Using an ocean biogeochemical model we show that the inclusion of variable C:N:P phytoplankton stoichiometry can substantially increase the trophic amplification of biomass declines in low latitude regions. This additional trophic amplification is driven by enhanced nutrient limitation decreasing phytoplankton N and P content relative to C, hence reducing zooplankton growth efficiency. Given that most current Earth System Models assume that phytoplankton C:N:P stoichiometry is constant, such models are likely to underestimate the extent of negative trophic amplification under projected climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30295388, year = {2018}, author = {Chan, FT and Stanislawczyk, K and Sneekes, AC and Dvoretsky, A and Gollasch, S and Minchin, D and David, M and Jelmert, A and Albretsen, J and Bailey, SA}, title = {Climate change opens new frontiers for marine species in the Arctic: current trends and future invasion risks.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14469}, pmid = {30295388}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change and increased anthropogenic activities are expected to elevate the potential of introducing non-indigenous species (NIS) into the Arctic. Yet, the knowledge base needed to identify gaps and priorities for NIS research and management is limited. Here, we reviewed primary introduction events to each ecoregion of the marine Arctic realm to identify temporal and spatial patterns, likely source regions of NIS, and the putative introduction pathways. We included 54 introduction events representing 34 unique NIS. The rate of NIS discovery ranged from zero to four species per year between 1960 and 2015. The Iceland Shelf had the greatest number of introduction events (n = 14), followed by the Barents Sea (n = 11), and the Norwegian Sea (n = 11). Twenty of the 54 introduction records had no known origins. The majority of those with known source regions were attributed to the Northeast Atlantic and the Northwest Pacific, each with 14 records. Some introduction events were attributed to multiple possible pathways. For these introductions, vessels transferred the greatest number of aquatic NIS (39%) to the Arctic, followed by natural spread (30%) and aquaculture activities (25%). Similar trends were found for introductions attributed to a single pathway. The phyla Arthropoda and Ochrophyta had the highest number of recorded introduction events, with 19 and 12 records, respectively. Recommendations including vector management, horizon scanning, early detection, rapid response, and a pan-Arctic biodiversity inventory are considered in this paper. Our study provides a comprehensive record of primary introductions of NIS for marine environments in the circumpolar Arctic and identifies knowledge gaps and opportunities for NIS research and management. Ecosystems worldwide will face dramatic changes in the coming decades due to climate change. Our findings contribute to the knowledge base needed to address two aspects of global change-invasive species and climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30293660, year = {2018}, author = {Rich, WA and Schubert, N and Schläpfer, N and Carvalho, VF and Horta, ACL and Horta, PA}, title = {Physiological and biochemical responses of a coralline alga and a sea urchin to climate change: Implications for herbivory.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.09.026}, pmid = {30293660}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Direct responses to rising temperatures and ocean acidification are increasingly well known for many single species, yet recent reviews have highlighted the need for climate change research to consider a broader range of species, how stressors may interact, and how stressors may affect species interactions. The latter point is important in the context of plant-herbivore interactions, as increasing evidence shows that increasing seawater temperature and/or acidification can alter algal traits that dictate their susceptibility to herbivores, and subsequently, community and ecosystem properties. To better understand how marine rocky shore environments will be affected by a changing ocean, in the present study we investigated the direct effects of short-term, co-occurring increased temperature and ocean acidification on a coralline alga (Jania rubens) and a sea urchin herbivore (Echinometra lucunter) and assessed the indirect effects of these factors on the algal-herbivore interaction. A 21-day mesocosm experiment was conducted with both algae and sea urchins exposed to ambient (24 °C, Low CO2), high-temperature (28 °C, Low CO2), acidified (24 °C, High CO2), or high-temperature plus acidified (28 °C, High CO2) conditions. Algal photosynthesis, respiration, and phenolic content were unaffected by increased temperature and CO2, but calcium carbonate content was reduced under high CO2 treatments in both temperatures, while total sugar content of the algae was reduced under acidified, lower temperature conditions. Metabolic rates of the sea urchin were elevated in the lower temperature, high CO2 treatment, and feeding assays showed that consumption rates also increased in this treatment. Despite some changes to algal chemical composition, it appears that at least under short-term exposure to climate change conditions, direct effects on herbivore metabolism dictated herbivory rates, while indirect effects caused by changes in algal palatability seemed to be of minor importance.}, }
@article {pmid30293009, year = {2019}, author = {González-Zeas, D and Erazo, B and Lloret, P and De Bièvre, B and Steinschneider, S and Dangles, O}, title = {Linking global climate change to local water availability: Limitations and prospects for a tropical mountain watershed.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2577-2586}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.309}, pmid = {30293009}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Bridging the gap between the predictions of coarse-scale climate models and the fine-scale climatic reality is a key issue of hydrological research and water management. While many advances have been realized in developed countries, the situation is contrastingly different in most tropical regions where we still lack information on potential discrepancies between measured and modeled climatic conditions. Consequently, water managers in these regions often rely on non-academic expertise to help them plan their future strategies. This issue is particularly alarming in tropical mountainous areas where water demand is increasing rapidly and climate change is expected to have severe impacts. In this article, we addressed this issue by evaluating the limitations and prospects in using regional climate models for evaluating the impact of climate change on water availability in a watershed that provides Quito, the capital of Ecuador, with about 30% of its current water needs. In particular, we quantified the temporal and spatial discrepancies between predicted and observed precipitation and temperature, and explored underlying mechanisms at play. Our results provide a strong critique of the inappropriate use of regional models to inform water planning with regard to adaptation strategies to face climate change. As a multidisciplinary group composed of hydrologists, ecologists and water managers, we then propose a framework to guide future climate change impact studies in tropical mountain watersheds where hydro-climatological data are scarce.}, }
@article {pmid30291786, year = {2018}, author = {Odey, EA and Abo, BO and Li, Z and Zhou, X and Giwa, AS}, title = {Influence of climate and environmental change in Nigeria: a review on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1515/reveh-2018-0043}, pmid = {30291786}, issn = {2191-0308}, abstract = {This paper reviews the current issues that involve environmental changes in Nigeria and environmental threats within the country. The fundamental aim of scientific knowledge in environmental studies is to reconcile climate change and environmental sustainability with developmental goals. Therefore, information on impact adaptation to climate change and vulnerability research is required to develop specific, action-oriented, interdisciplinary, successful, sociopolitical and democratic reform for the entire population of a country. This condition requires large inclusion of environmental researchers, institutions, re-inventing of research structures and ideas to dominate the global environmental change research and the critical analysis of present decision making, power, structure and related information structures. This review presents the effect of climate change in Nigeria and encourages adaptation research with challenging innovation, such as the use of energy-efficient renewable energy sources to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper also highlighted the need for researchers to become detailed, action oriented and multiscalar and to attend communications structure problems in enhancing the environmental activity.}, }
@article {pmid30290771, year = {2018}, author = {Rinne, PLH and Paul, LK and van der Schoot, C}, title = {Decoupling photo- and thermoperiod by projected climate change perturbs bud development, dormancy establishment and vernalization in the model tree Populus.}, journal = {BMC plant biology}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {220}, doi = {10.1186/s12870-018-1432-0}, pmid = {30290771}, issn = {1471-2229}, support = {192013 and 263117//Norwegian Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The performance and survival of deciduous trees depends on their innate ability to anticipate seasonal change. A key event is the timely production of short photoperiod-induced terminal and axillary buds that are dormant and freezing-tolerant. Some observations suggest that low temperature contributes to terminal bud initiation and dormancy. This is puzzling because low temperatures in the chilling range universally release dormancy. It also raises the broader question if the projected climate instabilities, as well as the northward migration of trees, will affect winter preparations and survival of trees.<br><br>RESULTS: To gauge the response capacity of trees, we exposed juvenile hybrid aspens to a 10-h short photoperiod in combination with different day/night temperature regimes: high (24/24 °C), moderate (18/18 °C), moderate-low (18/12 °C) and low (12/12 °C), and analysed bud development, dormancy establishment, and marker gene expression. We found that low temperature during the bud formation period (pre-dormancy) upregulated dormancy-release genes of the gibberellin (GA) pathway, including the key GA biosynthesis genes GA20oxidase and GA3oxidase, the GA-receptor gene GID1, as well as GA-inducible enzymes of the 1,3-β-glucanase family that degrade callose at plasmodesmal Dormancy Sphincter Complexes. Simultaneously, this pre-dormancy low temperature perturbed the expression of flowering pathway genes, including CO, FT, CENL1, AGL14, LFY and AP1. In brief, pre-dormancy low temperature compromised bud development, dormancy establishment, and potentially vernalization. On the other hand, a high pre-dormancy temperature prevented dormancy establishment and resulted in flushing.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The results show that pre-dormancy low temperature represents a form of chilling that antagonizes dormancy establishment. Combined with available field data, this indicates that natural Populus ecotypes have evolved to avoid the adverse effects of high and low temperatures by initiating and completing dormant buds within an approximate temperature-window of 24-12 °C. Global warming and erratic temperature patterns outside this range can therefore endanger the successful propagation of deciduous perennials.}, }
@article {pmid30290336, year = {2019}, author = {Tang, KHD}, title = {Climate change in Malaysia: Trends, contributors, impacts, mitigation and adaptations.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1858-1871}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.316}, pmid = {30290336}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {PURPOSE: This paper reviews the past and future trends of climate change in Malaysia, the major contributors of greenhouse gases and the impacts of climate change to Malaysia. It also reviews the mitigation and adaptations undertaken, and future strategies to manage the impacts of regional climate change.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: The review encompasses historical climate data comprising mean daily temperature, precipitation, mean sea level and occurrences of extreme weather events. Future climate projections have also been reviewed in addition to scholarly papers and news articles related to impacts, contributors, mitigation and adaptations in relation to climate change.<br><br>FINDINGS: The review shows that annual mean temperature, occurrences of extreme weather events and mean sea level are rising while rainfall shows variability. Future projections point to continuous rise of temperature and mean sea level till the end of the 21st century, highly variable rainfall and increased frequency of extreme weather events. Climate change impacts particularly on agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, coastal and marine resources, public health and energy. The energy and waste management sectors are the major contributors to climate change. Mitigation of and adaptations to climate change in Malaysia revolve around policy setting, enactment of laws, formulation and implementation of plans and programmes, as well as global and regional collaborations, particularly for energy, water resources, agriculture and biodiversity. There are apparent shortcomings in continuous improvement and monitoring of the programmes as well as enforcement of the relevant laws.<br><br>ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This paper presents a comprehensive review of the major themes of climate change in Malaysia and recommends pertinent ways forward to fill the gaps of mitigation and adaptations already implemented.}, }
@article {pmid30288205, year = {2018}, author = {Lafuente, A and Berdugo, M and de Guevara, ML and Gozalo, B and Maestre, FT}, title = {Simulated climate change affects how biocrusts modulate water gains and desiccation dynamics after rainfall events.}, journal = {Ecohydrology : ecosystems, land and water process interactions, ecohydrogeomorphology}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/eco.1935}, pmid = {30288205}, issn = {1936-0584}, support = {242658//European Research Council/International ; 647038//European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Soil surface communities dominated by mosses, lichens and cyanobacteria (biocrusts) are common between vegetation patches in drylands worldwide, and are known to affect soil wetting and drying after rainfall events. While ongoing climate change is already warming and changing rainfall patterns of drylands in many regions, little is known on how these changes may affect the hydrological behaviour of biocrust-covered soils. We used eight years of continuous soil moisture and rainfall data from a climate change experiment in central Spain to explore how biocrusts modify soil water gains and losses after rainfall events under simulated changes in temperature (2.5°C warming) and rainfall (33% reduction). Both rainfall amount and biocrust cover increased soil water gains after rainfall events, whereas experimental warming, rainfall intensity and initial soil moisture decreased them. Initial moisture, maximum temperature and biocrust cover, by means of enhancing potential evapotranspiration or by soil darkening, increased the drying rates and enhanced the exponential behaviour of the drying events. Meanwhile, warming reduced their exponential behaviour. The effects of climate change treatments on soil water gains and losses changed through time, with important differences between the first two years of the experiment and five years after its setup. These effects were mainly driven by the important reductions in biocrust cover and diversity observed under warming. Our results highlight the importance of long-term studies to understand soil moisture responses to ongoing climate change in drylands.}, }
@article {pmid30287852, year = {2018}, author = {Di Cecco, GJ and Gouhier, TC}, title = {Increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {14850}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-33217-0}, pmid = {30287852}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {CCF-1442728//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; OCE-1635989//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {Understanding spatiotemporal variation in environmental conditions is important to determine how climate change will impact ecological communities. The spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature can have strong impacts on community structure and persistence by increasing the duration and the magnitude of unfavorable conditions in sink populations and disrupting spatial rescue effects by synchronizing spatially segregated populations. Although increases in spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature have been documented in historical data, little is known about how climate change will impact these trends. We examined daily air temperature data from 21 General Circulation Models under the business-as-usual carbon emission scenario to quantify patterns of spatial and temporal autocorrelation between 1871 and 2099. Although both spatial and temporal autocorrelation increased over time, there was significant regional variation in the temporal autocorrelation trends. Additionally, we found a consistent breakpoint in the relationship between spatial autocorrelation and time around the year 2030, indicating an acceleration in the rate of increase of the spatial autocorrelation over the second half of the 21st century. Overall, our results suggest that ecological populations might experience elevated extinction risk under climate change because increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature is expected to erode both spatial and temporal refugia.}, }
@article {pmid30286359, year = {2019}, author = {Iqbal, MS and Islam, MMM and Hofstra, N}, title = {The impact of socio-economic development and climate change on E. coli loads and concentrations in Kabul River, Pakistan.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1935-1943}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.347}, pmid = {30286359}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Microbial pollution is a major problem worldwide. High concentrations of Escherichia coli have been found in Kabul River in Pakistan. E. coli concentrations vary under different socio-economic conditions, such as population and livestock densities, urbanisation, sanitation and treatment of wastewater and manure, and climate-change aspects, such as floods and droughts. In this paper, we assess potential future E. coli loads and concentrations in the Kabul River using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool with scenarios that are based on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSPs and RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Scenario_1 considers moderate population and livestock density growth, planned urbanisation and strongly improved wastewater and manure treatment (based on SSP1, &quot;Sustainability&quot;), and moderate climate change (RCP4.5, moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions). Scenario_2 considers strong population and livestock density growth, moderate urbanisation, slightly improved wastewater treatment, no manure treatment (based on SSP3, &quot;Regional rivalry&quot;) and strong climate change (RCP8.5, high GHG emissions). Simulated E. coli responses to Scenario_2 suggest a mid-century increase in loads by 111% and a late century increase of 201% compared to baseline loads. Similarly, simulated E. coli loads are reduced by 60% for the mid-century and 78% for the late century compared to the baseline loads. When additional treatment is simulated in Scenario_1, the loads are reduced even further by 94%, 92% and 99.3% compared to the baseline concentrations when additional tertiary treatment, manure treatment or both have been applied respectively. This study is one of the first to apply combined socio-economic development and climate change scenario analysis with an E. coli concentration model to better understand how these concentrations may change in the future. The scenario analysis shows that reducing E. coli concentrations in Pakistan's rivers is possible, but requires strongly improved waste water treatment and manure management measures.}, }
@article {pmid30286353, year = {2019}, author = {Du, X and Shrestha, NK and Wang, J}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on stream temperature in the Athabasca River Basin using SWAT equilibrium temperature model and its potential impacts on stream ecosystem.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1872-1881}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.344}, pmid = {30286353}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Stream temperatures, which influence dynamics and distributions of the aquatic species and kinetics of biochemical reactions, are expected to be altered by the climate change. Therefore, predicting the impacts of climate change on stream temperature is helpful for integrated water resources management. In this study, our previously developed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) equilibrium temperature model, which considers both the impacts of meteorological condition and hydrological processes, was used to assess the climate change impact on the stream temperature regimes in the Athabasca River Basin (ARB), a cold climate region watershed of western Canada. The streamflow and stream temperatures were calibrated and validated first in the baseline period, using multi-site observed data in the ARB. Then, climate change impact assessments were conducted based on three climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.6 and 8.5 scenarios. Results showed that warmer and wetter future condition would prevail in the ARB. As a result, streamflow in the basin would increase despite the projected increases in evapotranspiration due to warmer condition. On the basin scale, annual stream temperatures are expected to increase by 0.8 to 1.1 °C in mid-century and by 1.6 to 3.1 °C in late century. Moreover, the stream temperature changes showed a marked temporal pattern with the highest increases (2.0 to 7.4 °C) in summer. The increasing stream temperatures would affect water quality dynamics in the ARB by decreasing dissolved oxygen concentrations and increasing biochemical reaction rates in the streams. Such spatial-temporal changes in stream temperature regimes in future period would also affect aquatic species, thus require appropriate management measures to attenuate the impacts.}, }
@article {pmid30283484, year = {2018}, author = {Bajay, SK and Cruz, MV and da Silva, CC and Murad, NF and Brandão, MM and de Souza, AP}, title = {Extremophiles as a Model of a Natural Ecosystem: Transcriptional Coordination of Genes Reveals Distinct Selective Responses of Plants Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1376}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.01376}, pmid = {30283484}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The goal of this research was to generate networks of co-expressed genes to explore the genomic responses of Rhizophora mangle L. populations to contrasting environments and to use gene network analysis to investigate their capacity for adaptation in the face of historical and future perturbations and climatic changes. RNA sequencing data were generated for R. mangle samples collected under field conditions from contrasting climate zones in the equatorial and subtropical regions of Brazil. A gene co-expression network was constructed using Pearson's correlation coefficient, showing correlations among 78,364 transcriptionally coordinated genes. Each region exhibited two distinct network profiles; genes correlated with the oxidative stress response showed higher relative expression levels in subtropical samples than in equatorial samples, whereas genes correlated with the hyperosmotic salinity response, heat response and UV response had higher expression levels in the equatorial samples than in the subtropical samples. In total, 992 clusters had enriched ontology terms, which suggests that R. mangle is under higher stress in the equatorial region than in the subtropical region. Increased heat may thus pose a substantial risk to species diversity at the center of its distribution range in the Americas. This study, which was performed using trees in natural field conditions, allowed us to associate the specific responses of genes previously described in controlled environments with their responses to the local habitat where the species occurs. The study reveals the effects of contrasting environments on gene expression in R. mangle, shedding light on the different abiotic variables that may contribute to the genetic divergence previously described for the species through the use of simple sequence repeats (SSRs). These effects may result from two fundamental processes in evolution, namely, phenotypic plasticity and natural selection.}, }
@article {pmid30283159, year = {2018}, author = {Hundessa, S and Williams, G and Li, S and Liu, L and Cao, W and Ren, H and Guo, J and Gasparrini, A and Ebi, K and Zhang, W and Guo, Y}, title = {Projecting potential spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China with climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {627}, number = {}, pages = {1285-1293}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.300}, pmid = {30283159}, issn = {1879-1026}, support = {MR/M022625/1//Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Background: Global climate change is likely to increase the geographic range and seasonality of malaria transmission. Areas suitable for distribution of malaria vectors are predicted to increase with climate change but evidence is limited on future distribution of malaria with climate in China.<br><br>Objective: Our aim was to assess a potential effect of climate change on Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax) and Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) malaria under climate change scenarios.<br><br>Methods: National malaria surveillance data during 2005-2014 were integrated with corresponding climate data to model current weather-malaria relationship. We used the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) with a spatial component, assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution and including an offset for the population while accounting for potential non-linearity and long-term trend. The association was applied to future climate to project county-level malaria distribution using ensembles of Global Climate Models under two climate scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).<br><br>Results: Climate change could substantially increase P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria, under both climate scenarios, but by larger amount under RCP8.5, compared to the baseline. P. falciparum is projected to increase more than P.vivax. The distributions of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria are expected to increase in most regions regardless of the climate scenarios. A high percentage (>50%) increases are projected in some counties of the northwest, north, northeast, including northern tip of the northeast China, with a clearer spatial change for P. vivax than P. falciparum under both scenarios, highlighting potential changes in the latitudinal extent of the malaria.<br><br>Conclusion: Our findings suggest that spatial and temporal distribution of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China will change due to future climate change, if there is no policy to mitigate it. These findings are important to guide the malaria elimination goal for China.}, }
@article {pmid30283116, year = {2018}, author = {Kiser, B}, title = {An ode to female space trainees, the creeping cost of climate change, and the fabric of history: Books in brief.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {562}, number = {7725}, pages = {35}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06862-8}, pmid = {30283116}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30275304, year = {2018}, author = {Parent, B and Leclere, M and Lacube, S and Semenov, MA and Welcker, C and Martre, P and Tardieu, F}, title = {Maize yields over Europe may increase in spite of climate change, with an appropriate use of the genetic variability of flowering time.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {42}, pages = {10642-10647}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1720716115}, pmid = {30275304}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Projections based on invariant genotypes and agronomic practices indicate that climate change will largely decrease crop yields. The comparatively few studies considering farmers' adaptation result in a diversity of impacts depending on their assumptions. We combined experiments and process-based modeling for analyzing the consequences of climate change on European maize yields if farmers made the best use of the current genetic variability of cycle duration, based on practices they currently use. We first showed that the genetic variability of maize flowering time is sufficient for identifying a cycle duration that maximizes yield in a range of European climatic conditions. This was observed in six field experiments with a panel of 121 accessions and extended to 59 European sites over 36 years with a crop model. The assumption that farmers use optimal cycle duration and sowing date was supported by comparison with historical data. Simulations were then carried out for 2050 with 3 million combinations of crop cycle durations, climate scenarios, management practices, and modeling hypotheses. Simulated grain production over Europe in 2050 was stable (-1 to +1%) compared with the 1975-2010 baseline period under the hypotheses of unchanged cycle duration, whereas it was increased (+4-7%) when crop cycle duration and sowing dates were optimized in each local environment. The combined effects of climate change and farmer adaptation reduced the yield gradient between south and north of Europe and increased European maize production if farmers continued to make the best use of the genetic variability of crop cycle duration.}, }
@article {pmid30266900, year = {2018}, author = {Moore, JS and Chapman, JM and Mazerolle, MJ and Harris, LN and Taylor, EB}, title = {Premature alarm on the impacts of climate change on Arctic Char in Lake Hazen.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3985}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-06479-5}, pmid = {30266900}, issn = {2041-1723}, }
@article {pmid30262270, year = {2018}, author = {Saraiva, ACF and Mesquita, A and de Oliveira, TF and Hauser-Davis, RA}, title = {High CO2 effects on growth and biometal contents in the pioneer species Senna reticulata: climate change predictions.}, journal = {Journal of trace elements in medicine and biology : organ of the Society for Minerals and Trace Elements (GMS)}, volume = {50}, number = {}, pages = {130-138}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtemb.2018.06.018}, pmid = {30262270}, issn = {1878-3252}, abstract = {The aim of the present study consisted in evaluating the effects of CO2 enrichment on the growth and biometal/nutrient content and accumulation in Senna reticulata germinated under two different carbon dioxide concentrations: atmospheric (360 mg L-1) and elevated (720 mg L-1). Biometal/nutrient determinations were performed on three different plant portions (leaflets, stem and root) using flame atomic absorption spectrometry. In general, the biometal and nutrient stoichiometries in roots were increased, probably due to reduced transpiration, and consequent biometal accumulation. An Artifical Neural Network analysis suggests that Mg, Na and Fe display the most different behavior when comparing plants germinated at atmospheric and elevated CO2 conditions. Biomass and growth increases and certain elemental levels indicate that S. reticulata benefits from increased CO2 levels, however some results indicate the contrary, making further studies in this context necessary, as these changes may lead to direct effects on food safety, crop yields, and phytoremediation efficiency.}, }
@article {pmid30261186, year = {2018}, author = {Stensgaard, AS and Vounatsou, P and Sengupta, ME and Utzinger, J}, title = {Schistosomes, snails and climate change: Current trends and future expectations.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.09.013}, pmid = {30261186}, issn = {1873-6254}, abstract = {The exact impact of climate change on schistosomiasis, a blood-fluke affecting more than 250 million people mainly in tropical and subtropical countries, is currently unknown, but likely to vary with the snail-parasite species' specific ecologies and the spatio-temporal scale of investigation. Here, by means of a systematic review to identify studies reporting on impacts of climate change on the agents of schistosomiasis, we provide an updated synthesis of the current knowledge about the climate change-schistosomiasis relation. We found that, despite a recent increase in scientific studies that discuss the potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis, only a handful of reports have applied modelling and predictive forecasting that provide a quantitative estimate of potential outcomes. The volume and type of evidence associated with climate change responses were found to be variable across geographical regions and snail-parasite taxonomic groups. Indeed, the strongest evidence stems from the People's Republic of China pertaining to Schistosoma japonicum. Some evidence is also available from eastern Africa, mainly for Schistosoma mansoni. While studies focused on the northern and southern range margins for schistosomiasis indicate an increase in transmission range as the most likely outcome, there was less agreement about the direction of outcomes from the central and eastern parts of Africa. The current lack of consensus suggests that climate change is more likely to shift than to expand the geographic ranges of schistosomiasis. A comparison between the current geographical distributions and the thermo-physiological limitations of the two main African schistosome species (Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni) offered additional insights, and showed that both species already exist near their thermo-physiological niche boundaries. The African species both stand to move considerably out of their &quot;thermal comfort zone&quot; in a future, warmer Africa, but S. haematobium in particular is likely to experience less favourable climatic temperatures. The consequences for schistosomiasis transmission will to a large extent depend on the parasites and snails ability to adapt or move. Based on the identified geographical trends and knowledge gaps about the climate change-schistosomiasis relation, we propose to align efforts to close the current knowledge gaps and focus on areas considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30260968, year = {2018}, author = {Zhao, J and Zhan, X and Jiang, Y and Xu, J}, title = {Variations in climatic suitability and planting regionalization for potato in northern China under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e0203538}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0203538}, pmid = {30260968}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Investigating the variations in crop climatic suitability and planting regionalization can provide scientific evidence for ensuring food security under climate change. In this study, variations in climatic suitability and planting regionalization for the potato in northern China were investigated based on daily data from 1965 to 2014 collected at 321 agro-meteorological observation stations located throughout the region. Northern China was divided into three areas, including Northwest China, North China and Northeast China. The agricultural climatic suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method were applied. The potato growth seasons were divided into threestages:from sowing to emergence, from emergence to flowering and from flowering to maturity. The comprehensive climatic suitabilityindex (C), which varied from 0 to 1, was established to evaluate the effects of climate change on potato planting. The results showed that, from 1965 to 2014, the C value in the study area increased 0.002 every ten years over the past 50 years with an average of 0.706, benefitting potato growth in the vast area of northern China. Nonetheless, precipitation was found to be the main climatic factor restricting potato growth in northern China. For spatial distribution, the C value showed a gradually declining trend from east to west, decreasing westward and southward over the past 50 years. For the growth season, the C value varied during different potato growth stages over the past 50 years. The C value increased during the sowing-emergence stage and decreased during the emergence-flowering stage and the flowering-maturity stage. The decreased C during the later growth stages would directly affect the quality and yield of the potato, mainly because the flowering-maturity stage was associated with potato tuber enlargement and starch accumulation. Variations in potato planting regionalization in northern China over the past 50 years were evident. Climate change was more beneficial to potato cultivation in northeast China where the highly suitable areas had clearly expanded. However, potato cultivation was most negatively affected in northwest China where the middle suitable areas had receded. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30258078, year = {2018}, author = {Sylla, MB and Pal, JS and Faye, A and Dimobe, K and Kunstmann, H}, title = {Climate change to severely impact West African basin scale irrigation in 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {14395}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-32736-0}, pmid = {30258078}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {West Africa is in general limited to rainfed agriculture. It lacks irrigation opportunities and technologies that are applied in many economically developed nations. A warming climate along with an increasing population and wealth has the potential to further strain the region's potential to meet future food needs. In this study, we investigate West Africa's hydrological potential to increase agricultural productivity through the implementation of large-scale water storage and irrigation. A 23-member ensemble of Regional Climate Models is applied to assess changes in hydrologically relevant variables under 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming scenarios according to the UNFCCC 2015 Conference of Parties (COP 21) agreement. Changes in crop water demand, irrigation water need, water availability and the difference between water availability and irrigation water needs, here referred as basin potential, are presented for ten major river basins covering entire West Africa. Under the 2 °C scenario, crop water demand and irrigation water needs are projected to substantially increase with the largest changes in the Sahel and Gulf of Guinea respectively. At the same time, irrigation potential, which is directly controlled by the climate, is projected to decrease even in regions where water availability increases. This indicates that West African river basins will likely face severe freshwater shortages thus limiting sustainable agriculture. We conclude a general decline in the basin-scale irrigation potential in the event of large-scale irrigation development under 2 °C global warming. Reducing the warming to 1.5 °C decreases these impacts by as much as 50%, suggesting that the region of West Africa clearly benefits from efforts of enhanced mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid30256156, year = {2018}, author = {Schmidt, CW}, title = {More Cases of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: A Consequence of Climate Change?.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {126}, number = {9}, pages = {94002}, doi = {10.1289/EHP3778}, pmid = {30256156}, issn = {1552-9924}, }
@article {pmid30256154, year = {2018}, author = {Lloyd, SJ and Bangalore, M and Chalabi, Z and Kovats, RS and Hallegatte, S and Rozenberg, J and Valin, H and Havlík, P}, title = {A Global-Level Model of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Child Stunting via Income and Food Price in 2030.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {126}, number = {9}, pages = {97007}, doi = {10.1289/EHP2916}, pmid = {30256154}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In 2016, 23% of children (155 million) aged [Formula: see text] were stunted. Global-level modeling has consistently found climate change impacts on food production are likely to impair progress on reducing undernutrition.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We adopt a new perspective, assessing how climate change may affect child stunting via its impacts on two interacting socioeconomic drivers: incomes of the poorest 20% of populations (due to climate impacts on crop production, health, labor productivity, and disasters) and food prices.<br><br>METHODS: We developed a statistical model to project moderate and severe stunting in children aged [Formula: see text] at the national level in 2030 under low and high climate change scenarios combined with poverty and prosperity scenarios in 44 countries.<br><br>RESULTS: We estimated that in the absence of climate change, 110 million children aged [Formula: see text] would be stunted in 2030 under the poverty scenario in comparison with 83 million under the prosperity scenario. Estimates of climate change-attributable stunting ranged from 570,000 under the prosperity/low climate change scenario to [Formula: see text] under the poverty/high climate change scenario. The projected impact of climate change on stunting was greater in rural vs. urban areas under both socioeconomic scenarios. In countries with lower incomes and relatively high food prices, we projected that rising prices would tend to increase stunting, whereas in countries with higher incomes and relatively low food prices, rising prices would tend to decrease stunting. These findings suggest that food prices that provide decent incomes to farmers alongside high employment with living wages will reduce undernutrition and vulnerability to climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Shifting the focus from food production to interactions between incomes and food price provides new insights. Futures that protect health should consider not just availability, accessibility, and quality of food, but also the incomes generated by those producing the food. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2916.}, }
@article {pmid30254516, year = {2018}, author = {Dworetzky, BA}, title = {Global Warming for Psychogenic Nonepileptic Seizures? Report From ILAE Climate Survey.}, journal = {Epilepsy currents}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {231-232}, doi = {10.5698/1535-7597.18.4.231}, pmid = {30254516}, issn = {1535-7597}, }
@article {pmid30253695, year = {2018}, author = {Newman, TP and Nisbet, EC and Nisbet, MC}, title = {Climate change, cultural cognition, and media effects: Worldviews drive news selectivity, biased processing, and polarized attitudes.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {985-1002}, doi = {10.1177/0963662518801170}, pmid = {30253695}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {According to cultural cognition theory, individuals hold opinions about politically contested issues like climate change that are consistent with their &quot;cultural way of life,&quot; conforming their opinions to how they think society should be organized and to what they perceive are the attitudes of their cultural peers. Yet despite dozens of cultural cognition studies, none have directly examined the role of the news media in facilitating these differential interpretations. To address this gap, drawing on a national survey of US adults administered in 2015, we statistically modeled the cultural cognition process in relation to news choices and media effects on public attitudes about climate change. Individuals possessing strongly held cultural worldviews, our findings show, not only choose news outlets where they expect to find culturally congruent arguments about climate change, but they also selectively process the arguments they encounter. Overall, our study demonstrates the substantial role that cultural cognition in combination with news media choices play in contributing to opinion polarization on climate change and other politicized science topics.}, }
@article {pmid30252686, year = {2018}, author = {Al-Delaimy, WK and Krzyzanowski, M}, title = {A Policy Brief: Climate Change and Epidemiology Type of Manuscript: Commentary.}, journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/EDE.0000000000000925}, pmid = {30252686}, issn = {1531-5487}, }
@article {pmid30251041, year = {2018}, author = {Xing, B and Chen, H and Chen, Q and Zhang, Y and Liu, Z and Yang, Z}, title = {Assessing impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Coregonus ussuriensis and other coldwater fishes in northern China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-3236-z}, pmid = {30251041}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {ZR2015YL011//Shandong Natural Science Foundation/ ; 51179007//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 201401014//Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of China/ ; 2015ZX07203-005//Major Science and Technology Program for Water Pollution Control and Treatment/ ; ZR2016YL003//Shandong Natural Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change seriously affects habitat suitability for coldwater fish. Amur whitefish (Coregonus ussuriensis) is a commercially important coldwater fish species found in northeast China that is particularly sensitive to water temperature. We use water temperature models for Songhua (Harbin to Yilan) and Mayi rivers to predict habitat suitability for Amur whitefish and other coldwater fish species during the months of July and August in 2014 and 2100-2 months during which river temperatures can reach extremes. The predict-results showed that fish habitat was to deteriorate over time, and to be less suitable for survival of coldwater fish species in 2100 than that in 2014. Under scenario RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5), the time period during which habitat for Amur whitefish was unsuitable increased continually; under scenario RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), Amur whitefish might even disappear from the river basin. A significant increase in river water temperature will compromise coldwater fish survival and possibly lead to their disappearance. Practical measures to control greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the impact of global warming on aquatic ecosystems must be taken.}, }
@article {pmid30250726, year = {2018}, author = {Manzanedo, RD and Ballesteros-Cánovas, J and Schenk, F and Stoffel, M and Fischer, M and Allan, E}, title = {Increase in CO2 concentration could alter the response of Hedera helix to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {16}, pages = {8598-8606}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4388}, pmid = {30250726}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Increasing CO 2 concentration ([CO 2]) is likely to affect future species distributions, in interaction with other climate change drivers. However, current modeling approaches still seldom consider interactions between climatic factors and the importance of these interactions therefore remains mostly unexplored. Here, we combined dendrochronological and modeling approaches to study the interactive effects of increasing [CO 2] and temperature on the distribution of one of the main European liana species, Hedera helix. We combined a classical continent-wide species distribution modeling approach with a case study using H. helix and Quercus cerris tree rings, where we explored the long-term influence of a variety of climate drivers, including increasing [CO 2], and their interactions, on secondary growth. Finally, we explored how our findings could influence the model predictions. Climate-only model predictions showed a small decrease in habitat suitability for H. helix in Europe; however, this was accompanied by a strong shift in the distribution toward the north and east. Our growth ring data suggested that H. helix can benefit from high [CO 2] under warm conditions, more than its tree hosts, which showed a weaker response to [CO 2] coupled with higher cavitation risk under high temperature. Increasing [CO 2] might therefore offset the negative effects of high temperatures on H. helix, and we illustrate how this might translate into maintenance of H. helix in warmer areas. Our results highlight the need to consider carbon fertilization and interactions between climate variables in ecological modeling. Combining dendrochronological analyses with spatial distribution modeling may provide opportunities to refine predictions of how climate change will affect species distributions.}, }
@article {pmid30250709, year = {2018}, author = {Marion, L and Bergerot, B}, title = {Northern range shift may be due to increased competition induced by protection of species rather than to climate change alone.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {16}, pages = {8364-8379}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4348}, pmid = {30250709}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Few long-term, large-scale studies have been conducted about the factors likely to explain changes in species abundance and distribution in winter. Range shifts are generally attributed to the climate change or land use. This study shows that other factors such as species protection and the ensuing increasing numbers of individuals and competition could be involved. It details the progressive conquest of France, the most important European wintering area for great cormorant, in three decades as its legal protection by the EU Birds Directive. It is based on 13 exhaustive national counts. Cormorants first occupied the farthest areas (Atlantic and Mediterranean lagoons, then larger rivers) from the main-core European breeding area, with only progressive occupancy of the northeastern part later. This strategy mainly resulted from competition for optimal available feeding areas. Suboptimal areas (smaller wetlands harboring smaller night roosts, colder northeastern French areas) and progressive fragmentation of large night roosts into smaller, better located ones minimized flight costs. The coldest areas were occupied last, once other areas were saturated. Their occupancy was favored locally by the global climate change, but it played a minor role in these strategies. Both factors induced only a small NNE shift of the weighted centroid range of the wintering population (2.6 km/year) which mainly resulted from competition (buffer effect). Only the 2009 cold wave decreased the total number of wintering cormorants at the national scale, once the population had probably reached the carrying capacity of the country, while the previous cold waves had a minor effect. Comparatively, there was a greater SSE range shift of the weighted centroid of the breeding population (4.66 km/year). Range shifts of other recently protected species have been attributed to the sole climate change in the literature, but competition due to the saturation of usual wintering or breeding areas should be considered too.}, }
@article {pmid30250673, year = {2018}, author = {Chardon, NI and Wipf, S and Rixen, C and Beilstein, A and Doak, DF}, title = {Local trampling disturbance effects on alpine plant populations and communities: Negative implications for climate change vulnerability.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {16}, pages = {7921-7935}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4276}, pmid = {30250673}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Global change is modifying species communities from local to landscape scales, with alterations in the abiotic and biotic determinants of geographic range limits causing species range shifts along both latitudinal and elevational gradients. An important but often overlooked component of global change is the effect of anthropogenic disturbance, and how it interacts with the effects of climate to affect both species and communities, as well as interspecies interactions, such as facilitation and competition. We examined the effects of frequent human trampling disturbances on alpine plant communities in Switzerland, focusing on the elevational range of the widely distributed cushion plant Silene acaulis and the interactions of this facilitator species with other plants. Examining size distributions and densities, we found that disturbance appears to favor individual Silene growth at middle elevations. However, it has negative effects at the population level, as evidenced by a reduction in population density and reproductive indices. Disturbance synergistically interacts with the effects of elevation to reduce species richness at low and high elevations, an effect not mitigated by Silene. In fact, we find predominantly competitive interactions, both by Silene on its hosted and neighboring species and by neighboring (but not hosted) species on Silene. Our results indicate that disturbance can be beneficial for Silene individual performance, potentially through changes in its neighboring species community. However, possible reduced recruitment in disturbed areas could eventually lead to population declines. While other studies have shown that light to moderate disturbances can maintain high species diversity, our results emphasize that heavier disturbance reduces species richness, diversity, as well as percent cover, and adversely affects cushion plants and that these effects are not substantially reduced by plant-plant interactions. Heavily disturbed alpine systems could therefore be at greater risk for upward encroachment of lower elevation species in a warming world.}, }
@article {pmid30250671, year = {2018}, author = {Vasconcelos, TS and do Nascimento, BTM and Prado, VHM}, title = {Expected impacts of climate change threaten the anuran diversity in the Brazilian hotspots.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {16}, pages = {7894-7906}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4357}, pmid = {30250671}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {We performed Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to generate climatically suitable areas for anurans in the Brazilian hotspots, the Atlantic Forest (AF), and Cerrado (CER), considering the baseline and future climate change scenarios, to evaluate the differences in the alpha and beta diversity metrics across time. We surveyed anuran occurrence records and generated ENMs for 350 and 155 species in the AF and CER. The final predictive maps for the baseline, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios, based on an ensemble approach, were used to estimate the alpha (local species richness) and beta diversity metrics (local contribution to beta diversity index and its decomposition into replacement and nestedness components) in each ~50 × 50 km grid cell of the hotspots. Climate change is not expected to drastically change the distribution of the anuran richness gradients, but to negatively impact their whole extensions (i.e., cause species losses throughout the hotspots), except the northeastern CER that is expected to gain in species richness. Areas having high beta diversity are expected to decrease in northeastern CER, whereas an increase is expected in southeastern/southwestern CER under climate change. High beta diversity areas are expected to remain in the same AF locations as the prediction of the baseline climate, but the predominance of species loss under climate change is expected to increase the nestedness component in the hotspot. These results suggest that the lack of similar climatically suitable areas for most species will be the main challenge that species will face in the future. Finally, the application of the present framework to a wide range of taxa is an important step for the conservation of threatened biomes.}, }
@article {pmid30248871, year = {2018}, author = {Ma, X and Zhao, C and Tao, H and Zhu, J and Kundzewicz, ZW}, title = {Projections of actual evapotranspiration under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios in sandy areas in northern China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {1496-1508}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.253}, pmid = {30248871}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an essential component of Earth's global energy balance and water cycle. The Paris Agreement aspires to limit global mean surface warming to <2 °C and no >1.5 °C relative to preindustrial levels. However, it is uncertain how this global level will impact the shifts in the extents of sandy areas caused by global desertification. Using Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) datasets and advection-aridity models, we investigated the spatiotemporal features of ETa in sandy areas in northern China under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. The four climate models indicated significant increases in ETa in arid areas across northwestern China. Over time, the ETa value under only the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) emission scenario increased towards a plateau and significantly increased in the other three emission scenarios (P < 0.01) under global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. In terms of the spatial variations, ETa showed an increasing trend in all seasons except winter. The maximum ETa was 84.61 mm, and high values were mainly located in the southeast of the study area. Precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed good correlations with ETa in the sandy areas in northern China. The sandy areas in northern China showed decreasing trends (0.45 km2/a) from 1980 to 2015. Under global warming of 2.0 °C (2040-2059) relative to that of 1.5 °C (2020-2039), the area of sandy land will increase at a rate of 27.04 km2 per decade (P < 0.01); after this period, the sandy land area in northern China may gradually stabilize, with a trend of 0.02 km2/a (2047-2100). Early efforts to achieve the 1.5 °C temperature goal could therefore markedly reduce the likelihood that large regions will face substantial global desertification and the related impacts.}, }
@article {pmid30248832, year = {2018}, author = {Ishida, K and Ercan, A and Trinh, T and Kavvas, ML and Ohara, N and Carr, K and Anderson, ML}, title = {Analysis of future climate change impacts on snow distribution over mountainous watersheds in Northern California by means of a physically-based snow distribution model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {1065-1082}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.250}, pmid = {30248832}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on snow distribution through the 21st century were investigated over three mountainous watersheds in Northern California by means of a physically-based snow distribution model. The future climate conditions during a 90-year future period from water year 2010 to 2100 were obtained from 13 future climate projection realizations from two GCMs (ECHAM5 and CCSM3) based on four SRES scenarios (A1B, A1FI, A2, and B1). The 13 future climate projection realizations were dynamically downscaled at 9 km resolution by a regional climate model. Using the downscaled variables based on the 13 future climate projection realizations, snow distribution over the Feather, Yuba, and American River watersheds (FRW, YRW, and ARW) was projected by means of the physically-based snow model. FRW and YRW watersheds cover the main source areas of the California State Water Project (SWP), and ARW is one of the key watersheds in the California Central Valley Project (CVP). SWP and CVP are of great importance as they provide and regulate much of the California's water for drinking, irrigation, flood control, environmental, and hydro-power generation purposes. Ensemble average snow distribution over the study watersheds was calculated over the 13 realizations and for each scenario, revealing differences among the scenarios. While the snow reduction through the 21st century was similar between A1B and A2, the snow reduction was milder for B1, and more severe for A1FI. A significant downward trend was detected in the snowpack over nearly the entire watershed areas for all the ensemble average results.}, }
@article {pmid30248829, year = {2018}, author = {Liang, J and Xing, W and Zeng, G and Li, X and Peng, Y and Li, X and Gao, X and He, X}, title = {Where will threatened migratory birds go under climate change? Implications for China's national nature reserves.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {1040-1047}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.196}, pmid = {30248829}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change, regarded as one of the major threats to biodiversity and ecosystems, can impact on the distribution and survival of migratory birds. To investigate the threats of climate change to threatened migratory bird distributions, we used species distribution model (SDM) and climatic data under current and future climate scenarios to predict future changes in species distributions and how the geographic distribution of these threatened birds may respond to climate change by 2050. Our results show the hotspots for all species may remain in the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River, while more species may dwell in the coastal regions of the Bohai Gulf and the Yellow Sea in the future. Our findings show that the percentage of all species distributions or hotspots for all threatened species covered by national nature reserves (NNRs) in China remain low by 2050. Thus, we propose that China should increase and expand reserves in eastern China. Significantly, we emphasize the creation of protected areas to make it the Ramsar sites in the world and recommend that China should (1) strengthen the cooperation with neighboring countries to share maximum species occurrence data (especially the threatened species), (2) overlay maps of individual species for each taxon to assess the efficiency of coastal nature reserves and predict the hotspots shift under climate change, (3) trade off urban development and ecosystem stability to create new and dynamic protected areas to make it the Ramsar sites, (4) appeal for long-term protection of ecosystem stability to achieve sustainable development in the world.}, }
@article {pmid30245745, year = {2017}, author = {Silva, RA and West, JJ and Lamarque, JF and Shindell, DT and Collins, WJ and Faluvegi, G and Folberth, GA and Horowitz, LW and Nagashima, T and Naik, V and Rumbold, ST and Sudo, K and Takemura, T and Bergmann, D and Cameron-Smith, P and Doherty, RM and Josse, B and MacKenzie, IA and Stevenson, DS and Zeng, G}, title = {FUTURE GLOBAL MORTALITY FROM CHANGES IN AIR POLLUTION ATTRIBUTABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {647-651}, doi = {10.1038/nclimate3354}, pmid = {30245745}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {R21 ES022600/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid30244322, year = {2018}, author = {Lee, SW and Lee, K and Lim, B}, title = {Effects of climate change-related heat stress on labor productivity in South Korea.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-018-1611-6}, pmid = {30244322}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {KMA2018-00122//Korea Meteorological Administration/ ; }, abstract = {This study assessed the potential impact of heat stress on labor productivity in South Korea; as such, stress is expected to increase due to climate change. To quantify the future loss of labor productivity, we used the relationship between the wet-bulb globe temperature and work-rest cycles with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 as the climate change scenarios. If only climate factors are considered, then future labor productivity is expected to decline in most regions from the middle of the twenty-first century onwards (2041-2070). From the late twenty-first century onwards, the productivity of heavy outdoor work could decline by 26.1% from current levels under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. Further analysis showed that regional differences in labor characteristics and the working population had noteworthy impacts on future labor productivity losses. The heat stress caused by climate change thus has a potentially substantial negative impact on outdoor labor productivity in South Korea.}, }
@article {pmid30240399, year = {2018}, author = {Rheuban, JE and Doney, SC and Cooley, SR and Hart, DR}, title = {Projected impacts of future climate change, ocean acidification, and management on the US Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e0203536}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0203536}, pmid = {30240399}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Ocean acidification has the potential to significantly impact both aquaculture and wild-caught mollusk fisheries around the world. In this work, we build upon a previously published integrated assessment model of the US Atlantic Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery to determine the possible future of the fishery under a suite of climate, economic, biological, and management scenarios. We developed a 4x4x4x4 hypercube scenario framework that resulted in 256 possible combinations of future scenarios. The study highlights the potential impacts of ocean acidification and management for a subset of future climate scenarios, with a high CO2 emissions case (RCP8.5) and lower CO2 emissions and climate mitigation case (RCP4.5). Under RCP4.5 and the highest impact and management scenario, ocean acidification has the potential to reduce sea scallop biomass by approximately 13% by the end of century; however, the lesser impact scenarios cause very little change. Under RCP8.5, sea scallop biomass may decline by more than 50% by the end of century, leading to subsequent declines in industry landings and revenue. Management-set catch limits improve the outcomes of the fishery under both climate scenarios, and the addition of a 10% area closure increases future biomass by more than 25% under the highest ocean acidification impacts. However, increased management still does not stop the projected long-term decline of the fishery under ocean acidification scenarios. Given our incomplete understanding of acidification impacts on P. magellanicus, these declines, along with the high value of the industry, suggest population-level effects of acidification should be a clear research priority. Projections described in this manuscript illustrate both the potential impacts of ocean acidification under a business-as-usual and a moderately strong climate-policy scenario. We also illustrate the importance of fisheries management targets in improving the long-term outcome of the P. magellanicus fishery under potential global change.}, }
@article {pmid30239067, year = {2018}, author = {Valencia, E and Gross, N and Quero, JL and Carmona, CP and Ochoa, V and Gozalo, B and Delgado-Baquerizo, M and Dumack, K and Hamonts, K and Singh, BK and Bonkowski, M and Maestre, FT}, title = {Cascading effects from plants to soil microorganisms explain how plant species richness and simulated climate change affect soil multifunctionality.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14440}, pmid = {30239067}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {CGL2013-44661-R//Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, BIOMOD project/ ; 242658//European Research Council under the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)/ERC (BIOCOM)/ ; IUT20-29//Estonian Ministry of Education and Research/ ; 16-15012S//Czech Science Foundation/ ; 2017-T2/AMB-5406//Comunidad de Madrid/ ; 647038//European Research Council/International ; FP7-609398//European Research Council/International ; MOBJD13//European Research Council/International ; //Seventh Framework Programme/ ; //Estonian Research Council/ ; //European Regional Development Fund/ ; //Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; 170104634//Australian Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Despite their importance, how plant communities and soil microorganisms interact to determine the capacity of ecosystems to provide multiple functions simultaneously (multifunctionality) under climate change is poorly known. We conducted a common garden experiment using grassland species to evaluate how plant functional structure and soil microbial (bacteria and protists) diversity and abundance regulate soil multifunctionality responses to joint changes in plant species richness (one, three and six species) and simulated climate change (3°C warming and 35% rainfall reduction). The effects of species richness and climate on soil multifunctionality were indirectly driven via changes in plant functional structure and their relationships with the abundance and diversity of soil bacteria and protists. More specifically, warming selected for the larger and most productive plant species, increasing the average size within communities and leading to reductions in functional plant diversity. These changes increased the total abundance of bacteria that, in turn, increased that of protists, ultimately promoting soil multifunctionality. Our work suggests that cascading effects between plant functional traits and the abundance of multitrophic soil organisms largely regulate the response of soil multifunctionality to simulated climate change, and ultimately provides novel experimental insights into the mechanisms underlying the effects of biodiversity and climate change on ecosystem functioning.}, }
@article {pmid30238321, year = {2018}, author = {Barnes, CS}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Pollen and Respiratory Disease.}, journal = {Current allergy and asthma reports}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {59}, doi = {10.1007/s11882-018-0813-7}, pmid = {30238321}, issn = {1534-6315}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: A warming world will impact everyone and everything. The practice of allergic and respiratory disease will not be excepted. All the impacts will be impossible to anticipate. This review is intended to discuss significant factors related to individuals with allergic and respiratory disease.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Recent findings include the increased growth of allergenic plants in response to higher carbon dioxide levels and warmer temperatures. This also contributes to the increased production of pollen as well as the appearance of allergenic species in new climactic areas. Stinging insects will extend their ranges into northern areas where they have not previously been a problem. The shift and extension of pollen seasons with warmer springs and later frosts have already been observed. Recent severe hurricanes and flooding events may be just the harbinger of increasing damp housing exposure related to sea level rise. Evidence is accumulating that indicates the expected higher number of ozone alert days and increased pollution in populated areas is bringing increases in pollen potency. Finally, increased exposure to smoke and particles from wild fires, resulting from heat waves, will contribute to the general increase in respiratory disease. The practice of allergy being closely aligned with environmental conditions will be especially impacted. Allergists should consider increasing educational activities aimed at making patients more aware of air quality conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30236344, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Public Health and Implications for Emergency Medicine.}, journal = {Annals of emergency medicine}, volume = {72}, number = {4}, pages = {e49}, doi = {10.1016/j.annemergmed.2018.07.033}, pmid = {30236344}, issn = {1097-6760}, }
@article {pmid30235646, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, P and Qiao, Y and Schineider, M and Chang, J and Mutzner, R and Fluixá-Sanmartín, J and Yang, Z and Fu, R and Chen, X and Cai, L and Lu, J}, title = {Using a hierarchical model framework to assess climate change and hydropower operation impacts on the habitat of an imperiled fish in the Jinsha River, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {646}, number = {}, pages = {1624-1638}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.318}, pmid = {30235646}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change and hydropower operations affect hydrological regimes at regional basin scales and impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. The present study proposes a hierarchical modeling framework for predicting and analyzing the impacts of climate change and hydropower on fish habitats. The approach couples multi-scale climate, hydrological, water temperature, hydrodynamic and habitat suitability models and was applied to a reach of the Jinsha River. Flow discharge and water temperature were predicted in the study area for a baseline scenario and three climate change scenarios, and each considered the presence and absence of impacts caused by hydropower operation. The impacts of flow discharge and water temperature variations on spawning and juvenile Coreius guichenoti, an imperiled warm-water fish in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB), were evaluated using a fuzzy logic-based habitat model. The results showed that habitat suitability and available usable area for the fish increased due to climate change, and water temperature rising was the main influencing factor. Water temperature decrease induced by hydropower operation in the spawning periods resulted in the reduction of available habitat area. However, climate change reduced the negative effects generated by hydropower operation, and the available habitat area for the fish would still be expected to increase under the combined impacts of climate change and hydropower operation in the future. It is predicted that water warming, as a result of climate change, is likely to eliminate the spawning postponement effect generated by hydropower operation on Coreius guichenoti as well as other warm-water fish species in the JRB. In contrast, water warming induced by climate change is likely to exacerbate the negative effects of hydropower operation on the spawning activity of cold-water fish species in the JRB. The present study provides a scheme to predict the impacts of climate change and hydropower on other organisms in river ecosystems. The results are beneficial for the development of long-term and adaptive conservation and restoration measures for aquatic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30228379, year = {2018}, author = {Fernández-Gómez, B and Díez, B and Polz, MF and Arroyo, JI and Alfaro, FD and Marchandon, G and Sanhueza, C and Farías, L and Trefault, N and Marquet, PA and Molina-Montenegro, MA and Sylvander, P and Snoeijs-Leijonmalm, P}, title = {Bacterial community structure in a sympagic habitat expanding with global warming: brackish ice brine at 85-90 °N.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41396-018-0268-9}, pmid = {30228379}, issn = {1751-7370}, abstract = {Larger volumes of sea ice have been thawing in the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) during the last decades than during the past 800,000 years. Brackish brine (fed by meltwater inside the ice) is an expanding sympagic habitat in summer all over the CAO. We report for the first time the structure of bacterial communities in this brine. They are composed of psychrophilic extremophiles, many of them related to phylotypes known from Arctic and Antarctic regions. Community structure displayed strong habitat segregation between brackish ice brine (IB; salinity 2.4-9.6) and immediate sub-ice seawater (SW; salinity 33.3-34.9), expressed at all taxonomic levels (class to genus), by dominant phylotypes as well as by the rare biosphere, and with specialists dominating IB and generalists SW. The dominant phylotypes in IB were related to Candidatus Aquiluna and Flavobacterium, those in SW to Balneatrix and ZD0405, and those shared between the habitats to Halomonas, Polaribacter and Shewanella. A meta-analysis for the oligotrophic CAO showed a pattern with Flavobacteriia dominating in melt ponds, Flavobacteriia and Gammaproteobacteria in solid ice cores, Flavobacteriia, Gamma- and Betaproteobacteria, and Actinobacteria in brine, and Alphaproteobacteria in SW. Based on our results, we expect that the roles of Actinobacteria and Betaproteobacteria in the CAO will increase with global warming owing to the increased production of meltwater in summer. IB contained three times more phylotypes than SW and may act as an insurance reservoir for bacterial diversity that can act as a recruitment base when environmental conditions change.}, }
@article {pmid30228328, year = {2018}, author = {Morton, A}, title = {Australia has no climate-change policy - again.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {561}, number = {7723}, pages = {293-294}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06675-9}, pmid = {30228328}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30228131, year = {2018}, author = {Kearney, GD and Jones, K and Bell, RA and Swinker, M and Allen, TR}, title = {Climate Change and Public Health through the Lens of Rural, Eastern North Carolina.}, journal = {North Carolina medical journal}, volume = {79}, number = {5}, pages = {270-277}, doi = {10.18043/ncm.79.5.270}, pmid = {30228131}, issn = {0029-2559}, abstract = {BACKGROUND Recognizing that health outcomes are associated with climate threats is important and requires increased attention by health care providers and policymakers. The primary goal of this report is to provide information related to the public health threats of climate change, while identifying climate-sensitive populations primarily in rural, Eastern North Carolina.METHODS Publicly available data was used to evaluate regional (eg, Eastern, Piedmont, and Western) and county level socio-vulnerability characteristics of population groups in North Carolina, including: percent of persons living in poverty, percent of non-white persons, percent of persons under 18 years living in poverty, percent of elderly people living in poverty, percent of persons with a disability, and number of primary care physicians. One-way ANOVA was used to calculate and compare mean value estimates of population socio-vulnerability variables in Eastern North Carolina with Piedmont and Western regions.RESULTS Across all regional categories, the eastern part of the state had considerably higher averages than the state for percent of persons living in poverty (17.2%), percent of non-white persons (13.3%), percent of persons under 18 years old living in poverty (24.9%), percent of elderly people living in poverty (10.0%), and percent of persons with a disability (13.3%). Overwhelmingly, more counties in Eastern North Carolina had fewer primary care physicians (per 10,000 persons) than the state average (8.6 per 10,000 persons).CONCLUSION Eastern North Carolina has a disproportionally higher percent of population groups that are vulnerable to the threats of climate change. The need for health care providers to understand and communicate the challenges faced by rural, vulnerable population groups is of great public health importance. Communicating these health risks to policy makers is of equal importance.}, }
@article {pmid30225375, year = {2018}, author = {Roth, V and Lemann, T and Zeleke, G and Subhatu, AT and Nigussie, TK and Hurni, H}, title = {Effects of climate change on water resources in the upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {4}, number = {9}, pages = {e00771}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2018.e00771}, pmid = {30225375}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Drawing on hydrology, rainfall, and climatic data from the past 25 years, this article investigates the effects of climate change on water resources in the transnational Blue Nile Basin (BNB). The primary focus is on determining the long-term temporal and seasonal changes in the flows of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia at the border to Sudan. This is important because the Blue Nile is the main tributary to the Nile river, the lifeline of both Sudan and Egypt. Therefore, to begin with long-term trends in hydrological time series were detected by means of both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated using several sub-basins and new high-resolution land use and soil maps. Future climate change impacts were projected using data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions based on three different climate change scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Projected time series were analysed for changes in rainfall and streamflow trends. Climate change scenario modelling suggested that the precipitation will increase from 7% to 48% and that streamflow from the BNB could increase by 21% to 97%. The results provide a basis for evaluating future impacts of climate change on the upper Blue Nile River (Abay River). This is the main river basin contributing to the Nile and a source of water for millions of people in Sudan and Egypt, downstream from Ethiopia. Three models (CCCMA, CNRM, MRI) were applied in this research, within two future time periods (2046-2064 and 2081-2099) and one scenario (A1B). The Abay Basin was divided into seven sub-basins, six of which were used as inlets to the lowest basin at the border to Sudan. The above-mentioned results show that under current climate change scenarios there is a strong seasonal shift to be expected from the present main rainfall season (June to September) to an earlier onset from January to May with less pronounced peaks but longer duration of the rainfall season. This has direct consequences on the streamflow of the Blue Nile, which is connected to the rainfall season and therefore has direct effects on the people living in the sphere of influence of the Nile River.}, }
@article {pmid30224086, year = {2018}, author = {Rothäusler, E and Rugiu, L and Jormalainen, V}, title = {Forecast climate change conditions sustain growth and physiology but hamper reproduction in range-margin populations of a foundation rockweed species.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.09.014}, pmid = {30224086}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Intensifying environmental changes due to climate change affect marine species worldwide. Herein, we experimentally tested if the combination of forecasted warming and hyposalinity adversely affected growth, receptacle formation, and photosynthesis of three marginal populations of the brown alga Fucus from the northern Baltic Sea. Growth was not impaired by the projected consequences of climate change but genotypes varied in their responses, suggesting existence of genetic variation in phenotypic plasticity. Climate change further prevented receptacle formation, implying that Fucus fail to reproduce sexually. Photosynthesis was not affected by climate change but varied among populations. Our results show that Fucus populations photosynthesized, grew, and survived well under the projected climate change but their sexual reproduction ceased. This suggests that the marginal populations tested herein are resilient to future conditions but only if asexual reproduction enables them to proliferate.}, }
@article {pmid30216409, year = {2018}, author = {Panchen, ZA and Johnston, MO}, title = {Shifts in pollen release envelope differ between genera with non-uniform climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {105}, number = {9}, pages = {1568-1576}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.1156}, pmid = {30216409}, issn = {1537-2197}, support = {//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; //Killam Trusts/ ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Plant phenological responses to climate change now constitute one of the best studied areas of the ecological impacts of climate change. Flowering time responses to climate change of wind-pollinated species have, however, been less well studied. A novel source of flowering time data for wind-pollinated species is allergen monitoring records.<br><br>METHODS: We studied the male flowering time response to climatic variables of two wind-pollinated genera, Betula (Betulaceae) and Populus (Salicaceae), using pollen count records over a 17-year period.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: We found that changes in the pollen release envelope differed between the two genera. Over the study period, the only month with a significant rise in temperature was April, resulting in the duration of pollen release of the April-flowering Populus to shorten and the start and peak of the May-flowering Betula to advance. The quantity of pollen released by Betula has increased and was related to increases in the previous year's August precipitation, while the quantity of pollen released by Populus has not changed and was related to the previous year's summer and autumn temperatures.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that taxa differ in the reproductive consequences of environmental change. Differing shifts in phenology among species may be related to different rates of change in climatic variables in different months of the year. While our study only considers two genera, the results underscore the importance of understanding non-uniform intra-annual variation in climate when studying the ecological implications of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30215727, year = {2018}, author = {Ediriweera, DS and Diggle, PJ and Kasturiratne, A and Pathmeswaran, A and Gunawardena, NK and Jayamanne, SF and Isbister, GK and Dawson, A and Lalloo, DG and de Silva, HJ}, title = {Evaluating temporal patterns of snakebite in Sri Lanka: the potential for higher snakebite burdens with climate change.}, journal = {International journal of epidemiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/ije/dyy188}, pmid = {30215727}, issn = {1464-3685}, abstract = {Background: Snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that has been overlooked by healthcare decision makers in many countries. Previous studies have reported seasonal variation in hospital admission rates due to snakebites in endemic countries including Sri Lanka, but seasonal patterns have not been investigated in detail.<br><br>Methods: A national community-based survey was conducted during the period of August 2012 to June 2013. The survey used a multistage cluster design, sampled 165 665 individuals living in 44 136 households and recorded all recalled snakebite events that had occurred during the preceding year. Log-linear models were fitted to describe the expected number of snakebites occurring in each month, taking into account seasonal trends and weather conditions, and addressing the effects of variation in survey effort during the study and of recall bias amongst survey respondents.<br><br>Results: Snakebite events showed a clear seasonal variation. Typically, snakebite incidence is highest during November-December followed by March-May and August, but this can vary between years due to variations in relative humidity, which is also a risk factor. Low relative-humidity levels are associated with high snakebite incidence. If current climate-change projections are correct, this could lead to an increase in the annual snakebite burden of 31.3% (95% confidence interval: 10.7-55.7) during the next 25-50 years.<br><br>Conclusions: Snakebite in Sri Lanka shows seasonal variation. Additionally, more snakebites can be expected during periods of lower-than-expected humidity. Global climate change is likely to increase the incidence of snakebite in Sri Lanka.}, }
@article {pmid30214693, year = {2018}, author = {Jooste, BS and Dokken, JV and van Niekerk, D and Loubser, RA}, title = {Challenges to belief systems in the context of climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {508}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v10i1.508}, pmid = {30214693}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This article focuses on the social aspects of climate change and explores the interrelationship between belief systems and adaptation. The links and interaction between external and internal realities are examined from the perspective of contextual vulnerability, with a focus on the multifaceted structure of belief systems. The aim was to determine those challenges regarding climate change adaptation that are caused by a community's belief system and to make recommendations to overcome them. Diverse perceptions of climate change and beliefs from three townships in the North-West Province of South Africa were collected and analysed using Q-methodology, finding five distinct worldview narratives. These narratives were named naturalist collectivist, religious, religious determinist, activist collectivist and structural thinker. It is recommended that policymakers aim to address diverse views and should be informed by factors that increase resistance to belief revision. Information should be framed in ways that foster the perception of internal control, are clearly evidence based and encourage a desire to learn more.}, }
@article {pmid30214380, year = {2018}, author = {Patella, V and Florio, G and Magliacane, D and Giuliano, A and Crivellaro, MA and Di Bartolomeo, D and Genovese, A and Palmieri, M and Postiglione, A and Ridolo, E and Scaletti, C and Ventura, MT and Zollo, A and , }, title = {Urban air pollution and climate change: &quot;The Decalogue: Allergy Safe Tree&quot; for allergic and respiratory diseases care.}, journal = {Clinical and molecular allergy : CMA}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {20}, doi = {10.1186/s12948-018-0098-3}, pmid = {30214380}, issn = {1476-7961}, abstract = {Background: According to the World Health Organization, air pollution is closely associated with climate change and, in particular, with global warming. In addition to melting of ice and snow, rising sea level, and flooding of coastal areas, global warming is leading to a tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems. Moreover, the effects of air pollution on airway and lung diseases are well documented as reported by the World Allergy Organization.<br><br>Methods: Scientific literature was searched for studies investigating the effect of the interaction between air pollution and climate change on allergic and respiratory diseases.<br><br>Results: Since 1990s, a multitude of articles and reviews have been published on this topic, with many studies confirming that the warming of our planet is caused by the &quot;greenhouse effect&quot; as a result of increased emission of &quot;greenhouse&quot; gases. Air pollution is also closely linked to global warming: the emission of hydrocarbon combustion products leads to increased concentrations of biological allergens such as pollens, generating a mixture of these particles called particulate matter (PM). The concept is that global warming is linked to the emission of hydrocarbon combustion products, since both carbon dioxide and heat increase pollen emission into the atmosphere, and all these particles make up PM10. However, the understanding of the mechanisms by which PM affects human health is still limited. Therefore, several studies are trying to determine the causes of global warming. There is also evidence that increased concentrations of air pollutants and pollens can activate inflammatory mediators in the airways. Our Task Force has prepared a Decalogue of rules addressing public administrators, which aims to limit the amount of allergenic pollen in the air without sacrificing public green areas.<br><br>Conclusions: Several studies underscore the significant risks of global warming on human health due to increasing levels of air pollution. The impact of climate change on respiratory diseases appears well documented. The last decades have seen a rise in the concentrations of pollens and pollutants in the air. This rise parallels the increase in the number of people presenting with allergic symptoms (e.g., allergic rhinitis, conjunctivitis, and asthma), who often require emergency medical care. Our hope is that scientists from different disciplines will work together with institutions, pharmaceutical companies and lay organizations to limit the adverse health effects of air pollution and global warming.}, }
@article {pmid30213661, year = {2018}, author = {Kumar, S and Bhavya, PS and Ramesh, R and Gupta, GVM and Chiriboga, F and Singh, A and Karunasagar, I and Rai, A and Rehnstam-Holm, AS and Edler, L and Godhe, A}, title = {Nitrogen uptake potential under different temperature-salinity conditions: Implications for nitrogen cycling under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.09.001}, pmid = {30213661}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {As projected by climate change models, increase in sea surface temperature and precipitation in the future may alter nutrient cycling in the coastal regions due to potential changes in phytoplankton community structure and their ability to assimilate nitrogen (N) and carbon (C). An experiment simulating different temperature and salinity conditions (28°C-35 ambient conditions, 28ºC-31, 31ºC-35 and 31ºC-31) in mesocosms containing 1000 L of coastal water from the Arabian Sea was performed and N uptake rates were measured using 15N tracer technique on 2nd, 5th, 7th and 10th day of the experiment. The results show that, under all conditions, the total N (NO3- + NH4+) uptake rates were lower in the beginning and on the final day of the tracer experiment, while it peaked during middle, consistent with chlorophyll a concentrations. Total N uptake rate was significantly lower (p = 0.003) under ambient temperature-lower salinity condition (28ºC-31) than the others. This indicates that lowering of salinity in coastal regions due to excessive rainfall in the future may affect the N uptake potential of the phytoplankton, which may change the regional C and N budget.}, }
@article {pmid30212791, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, Y and Liu, G and Ye, C and Liu, W}, title = {Bacterial community and climate change implication affected the diversity and abundance of antibiotic resistance genes in wetlands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {361}, number = {}, pages = {283-293}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2018.09.002}, pmid = {30212791}, issn = {1873-3336}, abstract = {Antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) have been identified as emerging pollutants in the environment. However, little information is available for ARGs in natural wetlands at high altitude. In this study, we investigated 32 wetlands across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, with the variation of wetland types, altitude, and environmental factors, to assess the determinant factor of ARGs in this area. ARGs were detected in all the wetlands, ranged from 1.80 × 105 to 1.35 × 107 copies per gram of soils. The ARGs in wetland soils were diverse and abundant, and varied from each site, but the spatial geographical distance did not influence the ARG profile. The mobile genetic elements in wetlands ranged from 3.13 × 103 to 1.02 × 106 copies per gram of soil, indicating the low abundance of mobile genetic elements suggests a lower transfer rate of ARGs between bacteria in the Plateau. Bacterial community composition was the main driver in shaping the ARG diversity and geographic distribution. Soil moisture and temperature were positively correlated with ARG abundance in this region. These results not only provide a better understanding of the background levels of ARGs in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, but also shed light on the influence of climate change and increased human activities on the distribution of ARGs.}, }
@article {pmid30209380, year = {2018}, author = {Sutton, R}, title = {Attributing extreme weather to climate change is not a done deal.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {561}, number = {7722}, pages = {177}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06631-7}, pmid = {30209380}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30209049, year = {2018}, author = {Newman, M}, title = {Global hunger grows amid conflict and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {362}, number = {}, pages = {k3893}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.k3893}, pmid = {30209049}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid30208067, year = {2018}, author = {Vieira, KS and Montenegro, PFG and Santana, GG and Vieira, WLDS}, title = {Effect of climate change on distribution of species of common horned frogs in South America.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e0202813}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0202813}, pmid = {30208067}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Our main objectives were to verify the effect of climate change on distribution of frogs of the family Ceratophryidae and if the legal protection areas in South America will be effective or ineffective in ensuring the preservation of the toads this family in coming decades. The results showed that in the last 140,000 years, species of the family Ceratophryidae expanded and contracted their distribution areas, which naturally reflected the climate and vegetation changes in the Quaternary of South America. The maps of projections showed that changes in temperature determined the area of habitat suitability of 63.7% of the species of ceratophrids both during the last interglacial period and nowadays, and it seems that this will also be the case for the next 62 years. Given the current concerns about future extinctions in the tropics, it is prudent to examine, with special attention, the effects of climate fluctuations on the diversity and distribution of species, because the current estimates of reduction in biodiversity caused by habitat destruction and emission of greenhouse gases are comparable to estimated reductions during glacial intervals.}, }
@article {pmid30206900, year = {2018}, author = {Anisimov, O and Orttung, R}, title = {Climate change in Northern Russia through the prism of public perception.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-018-1096-x}, pmid = {30206900}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {14-17-00037//Russian Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {This article fills a major hole in the Western literature on climate change perceptions by reporting detailed data from Russia. While Northern Russia demonstrates high rates of climate change, regional adaptation policies are yet to be established. Complicating the problem, how the Russian public perceives climate change remains poorly known. This study synthesizes data from observations, modeling, and sociological surveys, and gives insight into the public perceptions of current and projected future changes in climate. Results indicate that, similar to what is found in the Western context, unusual weather patterns and single extreme events have a deeper impact than long-term climate change on public perceptions. The majority of the population considers climate and environmental changes locally, does not associate them with global drivers, and is not prepared to act on them. Accordingly, even the best designed climate policies cannot be implemented in Northern Russia, because there is no public demand for them. To address this situation, climate scientists should work to educate members of the public about basic scientific concepts so that they begin to demand better climate policies.}, }
@article {pmid30206398, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Caches of mummified penguins warn of climate-change impacts.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {561}, number = {7722}, pages = {152}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06181-y}, pmid = {30206398}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30205341, year = {2019}, author = {Niu, Y and Yang, S and Zhou, J and Chu, B and Ma, S and Zhu, H and Hua, L}, title = {Vegetation distribution along mountain environmental gradient predicts shifts in plant community response to climate change in alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {505-514}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.390}, pmid = {30205341}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Plants are particularly sensitive to climate change in alpine ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau. The various mountain micro-climates provide a natural gradient for space-for-time substitution research that plant responses to climate change. In this study, we surveyed the plant community in term of species composition, diversity and biomass across 189 sites on a hill of the Tibetan Plateau and analysed the individual and integrated effects of soil temperature and moisture on the plant community. The results showed that, at the quadrat scale, there were decrease in richness of 1.08 species for every 1 °C increase in soil temperature and 3.56 species for every 10% decrease in soil moisture. The integrated effects of increasing soil temperature and decreasing moisture are expected to lead to a rapid decrease in species richness. Biomass had no significant correlation with soil temperature but significantly decreased with soil moisture decreasing (p < 0.01). Biomass would decrease when soil moisture was below 20%, no matter how the change of soil temperature. We also found that gramineae and perennial forbs were sensitive to climate change. With soil temperature increased, the proportion of gramineae increased, whereas the proportion of perennial forbs decreased. The integrated effects of soil temperature increasing and moisture decreasing caused a shift from sedge-controlled to gramineae-controlled communities in alpine meadow. This study not only enhances our understanding of mountain plant community dynamics under climate change, but also predicts the shift of vegetation response to climate change on high-elevation alpine meadow.}, }
@article {pmid30203344, year = {2018}, author = {Cynk, KW}, title = {The process of climate change in mass media discourse using the example of Polish and international editions of &quot;Newsweek&quot; magazine.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {31}, pages = {31439-31449}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-3138-0}, pmid = {30203344}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The main objective of the article is to conduct a critical media discourse analysis as presented in the Polish and international editions of the &quot;Newsweek&quot; magazine in the years 2001-2006 and 2012-2016; the subject of which was climate change. The introduction provides the definitions of the key terms, such as: the greenhouse effect and critical discourse analysis (CDA). The theoretical part presents the most important assumptions of the CDA and presents a characteristic of the weekly. The results of the conducted quantitative and qualitative analysis partially lead to varying conclusions. Based on the CDA, the hypothesis was assumed that more attention was provided to climate change in the international (English) edition of &quot;Newsweek&quot;, than in the Polish-language edition. Rejected in turn was the hypothesis, according to which, more importance to climate change and their repercussions was provided in the discourse within the last 5 years of publication of the weekly than in the discourse from the years 2001-2006. As a result of comparison of both discourses, the disturbing fact that media discourse did not present and encourage among the readers an active stance in favour of the climate was noticed. It is the task of this influential weekly, the message of which reaches many people, not only to provide knowledge and shape specific values or view, but also to encourage and popularise attitudes in favour of the climate. If man wants to continue to live on earth, then one of their goals is to modify the form of discourse by entities responsible for its form.}, }
@article {pmid30202656, year = {2018}, author = {Shabani, F and Kumar, L and Hamdan Saif Al Shidi, R}, title = {Impacts of climate change on infestations of Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) on date palms in Oman.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e5545}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.5545}, pmid = {30202656}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Climate change has determined shifts in distributions of species and is likely to affect species in the future. Our study aimed to (i) demonstrate the linkage between spatial climatic variability and the current and historical Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) distribution in Oman and (ii) model areas becoming highly suitable for the pest in the future. The Dubas bug is a pest of date palm trees that can reduce the crop yield by 50% under future climate scenarios in Oman. Projections were made in three species distribution models; generalized linear model, maximum entropy, boosted regression tree using of four global circulation models (GCMs) (a) HadGEM2, (b) CCSM4, (c) MIROC5 and (d) HadGEM2-AO, under four representative concentration pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. We utilized the most commonly used threshold of maximum sensitivity + specificity for classifying outputs. Results indicated that northern Oman is currently at great risk of Dubas bug infestations (highly suitable climatically) and the infestations level will remain high in 2050 and 2070. Other non-climatic integrated pest management methods may be greater value than climatic parameters for monitoring infestation levels, and may provide more effective strategies to manage Dubas bug infestations in Oman. This would ensure the continuing competitiveness of Oman in the global date fruit market and preserve national yields.}, }
@article {pmid30201967, year = {2018}, author = {Froehlich, HE and Gentry, RR and Halpern, BS}, title = {Global change in marine aquaculture production potential under climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0669-1}, pmid = {30201967}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {Climate change is an immediate and future threat to food security globally. The consequences for fisheries and agriculture production potential are well studied, yet the possible outcomes for aquaculture (that is, aquatic farming)-one of the fastest growing food sectors on the planet-remain a major gap in scientific understanding. With over one-third of aquaculture produced in marine waters and this proportion increasing, it is critical to anticipate new opportunities and challenges in marine production under climate change. Here, we model and map the effect of warming ocean conditions (Representative Concentration Pathway scenario 8.5) on marine aquaculture production potential over the next century, based on thermal tolerance and growth data of 180 cultured finfish and bivalve species. We find heterogeneous patterns of gains and losses, but an overall greater probability of declines worldwide. Accounting for multiple drivers of species growth, including shifts in temperature, chlorophyll and ocean acidification, reveals potentially greater declines in bivalve aquaculture compared with finfish production. This study addresses a missing component in food security research and sustainable development planning by identifying regions that will face potentially greater climate change challenges and resilience with regards to marine aquaculture in the coming decades. Understanding the scale and magnitude of future increases and reductions in aquaculture potential is critical for designing effective and efficient use and protection of the oceans, and ultimately for feeding the planet sustainably.}, }
@article {pmid30200609, year = {2018}, author = {Ebi, KL and Boyer, C and Bowen, KJ and Frumkin, H and Hess, J}, title = {Monitoring and Evaluation Indicators for Climate Change-Related Health Impacts, Risks, Adaptation, and Resilience.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15091943}, pmid = {30200609}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate change poses a range of current and future health risks that health professionals need to understand, track, and manage. However, conventional monitoring and evaluation (M&amp;E) as practiced in the health sector, including the use of indicators, does not adequately serve this purpose. Improved indicators are needed in three broad categories: (1) vulnerability and exposure to climate-related hazards; (2) current impacts and projected risks; and (3) adaptation processes and health system resilience. These indicators are needed at the population level and at the health systems level (including clinical care and public health). Selected indicators must be sensitive, valid, and useful. And they must account for uncertainties about the magnitude and pattern of climate change; the broad range of upstream drivers of climate-sensitive health outcomes; and the complexities of adaptation itself, including institutional learning and knowledge management to inform iterative risk management. Barriers and constraints to implementing such indicators must be addressed, and lessons learned need to be added to the evidence base. This paper describes an approach to climate and health indicators, including characteristics of the indicators, implementation, and research needs.}, }
@article {pmid30200277, year = {2018}, author = {Chersich, MF and Wright, CY and Venter, F and Rees, H and Scorgie, F and Erasmus, B}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Wellbeing in South Africa.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15091884}, pmid = {30200277}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Given its associated burden of disease, climate change in South Africa could be reframed as predominately a health issue, one necessitating an urgent health-sector response. The growing impact of climate change has major implications for South Africa, especially for the numerous vulnerable groups in the country. We systematically reviewed the literature by searching PubMed and Web of Science. Of the 820 papers screened, 34 were identified that assessed the impacts of climate change on health in the country. Most papers covered effects of heat on health or on infectious diseases (20/34; 59%). We found that extreme weather events are the most noticeable effects to date, especially droughts in the Western Cape, but rises in vector-borne diseases are gaining prominence. Climate aberration is also linked in myriad ways with outbreaks of food and waterborne diseases, and possibly with the recent Listeria epidemic. The potential impacts of climate change on mental health may compound the multiple social stressors that already beset the populace. Climate change heightens the pre-existing vulnerabilities of women, fishing communities, rural subsistence farmers and those living in informal settlements. Further gender disparities, eco-migration and social disruptions may undermine the prevention-but also treatment-of HIV. Our findings suggest that focused research and effective use of surveillance data are required to monitor climate change's impacts; traditional strengths of the country's health sector. The health sector, hitherto a fringe player, should assume a greater leadership role in promoting policies that protect the public's health, address inequities and advance the country's commitments to climate change accords.}, }
@article {pmid30199690, year = {2019}, author = {Trauernicht, C}, title = {Vegetation-Rainfall interactions reveal how climate variability and climate change alter spatial patterns of wildland fire probability on Big Island, Hawaii.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {459-469}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.347}, pmid = {30199690}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The area burned annually by wildland fire in Hawaii has increased fourfold in recent decades. The archipelago's novel fuel types and climatic heterogeneity pose significant challenges for fire risk assessment and fire management. Probability-based fire occurrence models using historical wildfire records provide a means to assess and attribute fire risk in regions of the world like Hawaii where investment in fire science is limited. This research used generalized additive models to 1) assess the relative contribution of vegetation, climate, and human-caused ignitions to the probability of fire in the northwest quadrant of Hawaii Island and 2) compare how landscape flammability varies due to interannual rainfall variability versus projected changes in mean annual rainfall (MAR) and temperature. Annual fire probability was highest for grasslands and peaked at drier conditions (0.04 at 450 mm MAR) when compared with shrublands (0.03 at 650 mm MAR) and forest (0.015 at 600 mm MAR). Excess rainfall the year prior to fire occurrence increased fire risk across grasslands, and thus overall fire probability, more so than drought the year that fire occurred. Drying and warming trends for the region under projected climate change increased maximum values of fire probability by as much as 375% and shifted areas of peak landscape flammability to higher elevation. Model predictions under future climate also indicate the largest changes in landscape flammability will happen by mid-Century. The influence of antecedent wet years on fire risk can improve near-term predictions of fire risk in Hawaii while climate projections indicate that fire management will need to be prioritized at upper elevations where high value natural resources are concentrated.}, }
@article {pmid30199682, year = {2019}, author = {Pandey, VP and Dhaubanjar, S and Bharati, L and Thapa, BR}, title = {Hydrological response of Chamelia watershed in Mahakali Basin to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {365-383}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.053}, pmid = {30199682}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Chamelia (catchment area = 1603 km2), a tributary of Mahakali, is a snow-fed watershed in Western Nepal. The watershed has 14 hydropower projects at various stages of development. This study simulated the current and future hydrological system of Chamelia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated for 2001-2007; validated for 2008-2013; and then applied to assess streamflow response to projected future climate scenarios. Multi-site calibration ensures that the model is capable of reproducing hydrological heterogeneity within the watershed. Current water balance above the Q120 hydrological station in the forms of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and net water yield are 2469 mm, 381 mm and 1946 mm, respectively. Outputs of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for three future periods were considered for assessing climate change impacts. An ensemble of bias-corrected RCM projections showed that maximum temperature under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures is projected to increase from the baseline by 0.9 °C (1.1 °C), 1.4 °C (2.1 °C), and 1.6 °C (3.4 °C), respectively. Minimum temperature for the same scenarios and future periods are projected to increase by 0.9 °C (1.2 °C), 1.6 °C (2.5 °C), and 2.0 °C (3.9 °C), respectively. Average annual precipitation under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures are projected to increase by 10% (11%), 10% (15%), and 13% (15%), respectively. Based on the five RCMs considered, there is a high consensus for increase in temperature but higher uncertainty with respect to precipitations. Under these projected changes, average annual streamflow was simulated to increase gradually from the near to far future under both RCPs; for instance, by 8.2% in near-, 12.2% in mid-, and 15.0% in far-future under RCP4.5 scenarios. The results are useful for planning water infrastructure projects, in Chamelia and throughout the Mahakali basin, to ensure long-term sustainability under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30199667, year = {2018}, author = {Arbuthnott, K and Hajat, S and Heaviside, C and Vardoulakis, S}, title = {What is cold-related mortality? A multi-disciplinary perspective to inform climate change impact assessments.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {121}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {119-129}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2018.08.053}, pmid = {30199667}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There is a growing discussion regarding the mortality burdens of hot and cold weather and how the balance between these may alter as a result of climate change. Net effects of climate change are often presented, and in some settings these may suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality will outweigh increases in heat-related mortality. However, key to these discussions is that the magnitude of temperature-related mortality is wholly sensitive to the placement of the temperature threshold above or below which effects are modelled. For cold exposure especially, where threshold effects are often ill-defined, choices in threshold placement have varied widely between published studies, even within the same location. Despite this, there is little discussion around appropriate threshold selection and whether reported associations reflect true causal relationships - i.e. whether all deaths occurring below a given temperature threshold can be regarded as cold-related and are therefore likely to decrease as climate warms.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Our objectives are to initiate a discussion around the importance of threshold placement and examine evidence for causality across the full range of temperatures used to quantify cold-related mortality. We examine whether understanding causal mechanisms can inform threshold selection, the interpretation of current and future cold-related health burdens and their use in policy formation.<br><br>METHODS: Using Greater London data as an example, we first illustrate the sensitivity of cold related mortality to threshold selection. Using the Bradford Hill criteria as a framework, we then integrate knowledge and evidence from multiple disciplines and areas- including animal and human physiology, epidemiology, biomarker studies and population level studies. This allows for discussion of several possible direct and indirect causal mechanisms operating across the range of 'cold' temperatures and lag periods used in health impact studies, and whether this in turn can inform appropriate threshold placement.<br><br>RESULTS: Evidence from a range of disciplines appears to support a causal relationship for cold across a range of temperatures and lag periods, although there is more consistent evidence for a causal effect at more extreme temperatures. It is plausible that 'direct' mechanisms for cold mortality are likely to occur at lower temperatures and 'indirect' mechanisms (e.g. via increased spread of infection) may occur at milder temperatures.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Separating the effects of 'extreme' and 'moderate' cold (e.g. temperatures between approximately 8-9 °C and 18 °C in the UK) could help the interpretation of studies quoting attributable mortality burdens. However there remains the general dilemma of whether it is better to use a lower cold threshold below which we are more certain of a causal relationship, but at the risk of under-estimating deaths attributable to cold.}, }
@article {pmid30196319, year = {2018}, author = {Akbarpour, S and Niksokhan, MH}, title = {Investigating effects of climate change, urbanization, and sea level changes on groundwater resources in a coastal aquifer: an integrated assessment.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {190}, number = {10}, pages = {579}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-018-6953-3}, pmid = {30196319}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {Urbanization and climate change are causing numerous side effects on groundwater resources. In this study, an integrated modeling approach by linking soil and water application tool (SWAT), modular finite difference groundwater flow (MODFLOW), and three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow coupled with multi-species solute and heat transport (SEAWAT) models were used to exhibit responses of groundwater systems, in terms of flow and salt concentrations to current and future climatic and anthropogenic changes. Future climate scenarios for periods of 2010-2040 were generated from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM) for scenarios A1B, B1, and A2 which was downscaled by the Long Ashton Research Station weather generator (LARS-WG) providing precipitation and temperature patterns for the period 2018-2040. The GCM's outputs were applied to SWAT model to estimate recharge rate for the ten scenarios designed to assess the sensitivity of the aquifer to urbanization and climate change. The estimated recharge rate from SWAT was utilized as an input in numerical groundwater model to evaluate saltwater intrusion (SWI), changes in freshwater storage within the aquifer system, and changes in groundwater level. Based on the results of each scenario's simulation, increase of pumping rate yield by future population growth will have more adverse effects on the unconfined aquifer. The derived information from this study can be used to improve future works by developing a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged response of freshwater storage and unconfined groundwater systems to climate change and anthropogenic activities.}, }
@article {pmid30194394, year = {2018}, author = {Alava, JJ and Cisneros-Montemayor, AM and Sumaila, UR and Cheung, WWL}, title = {Projected amplification of food web bioaccumulation of MeHg and PCBs under climate change in the Northeastern Pacific.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {13460}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-31824-5}, pmid = {30194394}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change increases exposure and bioaccumulation of pollutants in marine organisms, posing substantial ecophysiological and ecotoxicological risks. Here, we applied a trophodynamic ecosystem model to examine the bioaccumulation of organic mercury (MeHg) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in a Northeastern Pacific marine food web under climate change. We found largely heterogeneous sensitivity in climate-pollution impacts between chemicals and trophic groups. Concentration of MeHg and PCBs in top predators, including resident killer whales, is projected to be amplified by 8 and 3%, respectively, by 2100 under a high carbon emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) relative to a no-climate change control scenario. However, the level of amplification increases with higher carbon emission scenario for MeHg, but decreases for PCBs. Such idiosyncratic responses are shaped by the differences in bioaccumulation pathways between MeHg and PCBs, and the modifications of food web dynamics between different levels of climate change. Climate-induced pollutant amplification in mid-trophic level predators (Chinook salmon) are projected to be higher (~10%) than killer whales. Overall, the predicted trophic magnification factor is ten-fold higher in MeHg than in PCBs under high CO2 emissions. This contribution highlights the importance of understanding the interactions with anthropogenic organic pollutants in assessing climate risks on marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30191473, year = {2018}, author = {Hutchins, SS and Bouye, K and Luber, G and Briseno, L and Hunter, C and Corso, L}, title = {Public Health Agency Responses and Opportunities to Protect Against Health Impacts of Climate Change Among US Populations with Multiple Vulnerabilities.}, journal = {Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s40615-017-0402-9}, pmid = {30191473}, issn = {2196-8837}, abstract = {During the past several decades, unprecedented global changes in climate have given rise to an increase in extreme weather and other climate events and their consequences such as heavy rainfall, hurricanes, flooding, heat waves, wildfires, and air pollution. These climate effects have direct impacts on human health such as premature death, injuries, exacerbation of health conditions, disruption of mental well-being, as well as indirect impacts through food- and water-related infections and illnesses. While all populations are at risk for these adverse health outcomes, some populations are at greater risk because of multiple vulnerabilities resulting from increased exposure to risk-prone areas, increased sensitivity due to underlying health conditions, and limited adaptive capacity primarily because of a lack of economic resources to respond adequately. We discuss current governmental public health responses and their future opportunities to improve resilience of special populations at greatest risk for adverse health outcomes. Vulnerability assessment, adaptation plans, public health emergency response, and public health agency accreditation are all current governmental public health actions. Governmental public health opportunities include integration of these current responses with health equity initiatives and programs in communities.}, }
@article {pmid30190492, year = {2018}, author = {Chen, C and Guerit, L and Foreman, BZ and Hassenruck-Gudipati, HJ and Adatte, T and Honegger, L and Perret, M and Sluijs, A and Castelltort, S}, title = {Estimating regional flood discharge during Palaeocene-Eocene global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {13391}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-31076-3}, pmid = {30190492}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {200021-146822//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; 200021-146822//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; 200021-146822//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; }, abstract = {Among the most urgent challenges in future climate change scenarios is accurately predicting the magnitude to which precipitation extremes will intensify. Analogous changes have been reported for an episode of millennial-scale 5 °C warming, termed the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), providing independent constraints on hydrological response to global warming. However, quantifying hydrologic extremes during geologic global warming analogs has proven difficult. Here we show that water discharge increased by at least 1.35 and potentially up to 14 times during the early phase of the PETM in northern Spain. We base these estimates on analyses of channel dimensions, sediment grain size, and palaeochannel gradients across the early PETM, which is regionally marked by an abrupt transition from overbank palaeosol deposits to conglomeratic fluvial sequences. We infer that extreme floods and channel mobility quickly denuded surrounding soil-mantled landscapes, plausibly enhanced by regional vegetation decline, and exported enormous quantities of terrigenous material towards the ocean. These results support hypotheses that extreme rainfall events and associated risks of flooding increase with global warming at similar, but potentially at much higher, magnitudes than currently predicted.}, }
@article {pmid30188919, year = {2018}, author = {Halley, JM and Van Houtan, KS and Mantua, N}, title = {How survival curves affect populations' vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e0203124}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0203124}, pmid = {30188919}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Human activities are exposing organisms not only to direct threats (e.g. habitat loss) but also to indirect environmental pressures such as climate change, which involves not just directional global warming but also increasing climatic variability. Such changes will impact whole communities of organisms and the possible effects on population dynamics have raised concerns about increased extinction rates. Conservation-minded approaches to extinction risk vary from range shifts predicted by climate envelope models with no population dynamics to population viability analyses that ignore environmental variability altogether. Our modelling study shows that these extremes are modelling responses to a spectrum of environmental sensitivity that organisms may exhibit. We show how the survival curve plays a major role in how environmental variability leads to population fluctuations. While it is often supposed that low-fecundity organisms (those with high parental investment) will be the most vulnerable to climate change, it is those with high fecundity (low parental investment) that are likely to be more sensitive to such changes. We also find that abundance variations in high fecundity populations is driven primarily by fluctuations in the survival of early life stages, the more so if those environmental changes are autocorrelated in time. We show which types of conservation actions are most appropriate for a number of real populations. While the most effective conservation actions for organisms of low fecundity is to avoid killing them, for populations with high fecundity (and low parental investment), our study suggests conservation should focus more on protecting early life stages from hostile environments.}, }
@article {pmid30188004, year = {2018}, author = {Fernández-Pascual, E and Mattana, E and Pritchard, HW}, title = {Seeds of future past: climate change and the thermal memory of plant reproductive traits.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12461}, pmid = {30188004}, issn = {1469-185X}, support = {Grants 'Clarín' ACA14-19 and ACB17-19//Government of Asturias and the FP7 - Marie Curie - COFUND programme of the European Commission/ ; 607785//People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) of the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013/ ; }, abstract = {Plant persistence and migration in face of climate change depends on successful reproduction by seed, a central aspect of plant life that drives population dynamics, community assembly and species distributions. Plant reproduction by seed is a chain of physiological processes, the rates of which are a function of temperature, and can be modelled using thermal time models. Importantly, while seed reproduction responds to its instantaneous thermal environment, there is also evidence of phenotypic plasticity in response to the thermal history experienced by the plant's recent ancestors, by the reproducing plant since seedling establishment, and by its seeds both before and after their release. This phenotypic plasticity enables a thermal memory of plant reproduction, which allows individuals to acclimatise to their surroundings. This review synthesises current knowledge on the thermal memory of plant reproduction by seed, and highlights its importance for modelling approaches based on physiological thermal time. We performed a comprehensive search in the Web of Science and analysed 533 relevant articles, of which 81 provided material for a meta-analysis of thermal memory in reproductive functional traits based on the effect size Zr. The articles encompassed the topics of seed development, seed yield (mass and number), seed dormancy (physiological, morphological and physical), germination, and seedling establishment. The results of the meta-analysis provide evidence for a thermal memory of seed yield, physiological dormancy and germination. Seed mass and physiological dormancy appear to be the central hubs of this memory. We argue for integrating thermal memory into a predictive framework based on physiological time modelling. This will provide a quantitative assessment of plant reproduction, a complex system that integrates past and present thermal inputs to achieve successful reproduction in changing environments. The effects of a warming environment on plant reproduction cannot be reduced to a qualitative interpretation of absolute positives and negatives. Rather, these effects need to be understood in terms of changing rates and thresholds for the physiological process that underlie reproduction by seed.}, }
@article {pmid30187645, year = {2018}, author = {Usinowicz, J and Levine, JM}, title = {Species persistence under climate change: a geographical scale coexistence problem.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {1589-1603}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13108}, pmid = {30187645}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {31003A_173210//Swiss National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Forecasting the impacts of climate change on biological diversity requires better ways to incorporate competitive interactions into predictions of species' range dynamics and persistence. This problem has been studied extensively in a different context by theoreticians evaluating the coexistence of species in spatially heterogeneous environments. Here, we show how spatial coexistence theory can be adapted to provide a mathematical framework for understanding species persistence in competitive communities under climate change. We first show how the spatial low-density growth rate provides the relevant metric of species persistence along a climate gradient. We then analyse a model of multiple migrating competitors to show how mechanisms contributing to low-density growth rates quantify the effect of different competitive processes on persistence, and how these processes change in strength with species' asynchronous migration under climate change. Finally, we outline the empirical utility of the framework, showing how the theory can scale up from local measurements of species performance and competitive interactions to range-scale metrics of persistence. Treating species' range dynamics as a geographical-scale coexistence problem presents its own set of challenges, but building from a well-established body of theory may greatly improve the predictability of species persistence in competitive communities under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30187452, year = {2018}, author = {Coates, SJ and Davis, MDP and Andersen, LK}, title = {Temperature and humidity affect the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease: a systematic review of the literature - a report from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.14188}, pmid = {30187452}, issn = {1365-4632}, abstract = {Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-mediated condition that predominantly affects children under 5 years of age. The tendency for outbreaks to peak in warmer summer months suggests a relationship between HFMD and weather patterns. We reviewed the English-language literature for articles describing a relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD. Seventy-two studies meeting criteria were identified. A positive, statistically significant relationship was identified between HFMD cases and both temperature (61 of 67 studies, or 91.0%, reported a positive relationship) [CI 81.8-95.8%, P = 0.0001] and relative humidity (41 of 54 studies, or 75.9%) [CI 63.1-85.4%, P = 0.0001]. No significant relationship was identified between HFMD and precipitation, wind speed, and/or sunshine. Most countries reported a single peak of disease each year (most commonly early Summer), but subtropical and tropical climate zones were significantly more likely to experience a bimodal distribution of cases throughout the year (two peaks a year; most commonly late spring/early summer, with a smaller peak in autumn). The rising global incidence of HFMD, particularly in Pacific Asia, may be related to climate change. Weather forecasting might be used effectively in the future to indicate the risk of HFMD outbreaks and the need for targeted public health interventions.}, }
@article {pmid30187146, year = {2018}, author = {Smyth, CE and Smiley, BP and Magnan, M and Birdsey, R and Dugan, AJ and Olguin, M and Mascorro, VS and Kurz, WA}, title = {Climate change mitigation in Canada's forest sector: a spatially explicit case study for two regions.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {11}, doi = {10.1186/s13021-018-0099-z}, pmid = {30187146}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: We determine the potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by changes in management practices and wood use for two regions within Canada's managed forest from 2018 to 2050. Our modeling frameworks include the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector, a framework for harvested wood products that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of marginal emission substitution benefits from the changes in use of wood products and bioenergy. Using a spatially explicit forest inventory with 16 ha pixels, we examine mitigation scenarios relating to forest management and wood use: increased harvesting efficiency; residue management for bioenergy; reduced harvest; reduced slashburning, and more longer-lived wood products. The primary reason for the spatially explicit approach at this coarse resolution was to estimate transportation distances associated with delivering harvest residues for heat and/or electricity production for local communities.<br><br>RESULTS: Results demonstrated large differences among alternative scenarios, and from alternative assumptions about substitution benefits for fossil fuel-based energy and products which changed scenario rankings. Combining forest management activities with a wood-use scenario that generated more longer-lived products had the highest mitigation potential.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The use of harvest residues to meet local energy demands in place of burning fossil fuels was found to be an effective scenario to reduce GHG emissions, along with scenarios that increased the utilization level for harvest, and increased the longevity of wood products. Substitution benefits from avoiding fossil fuels or emissions-intensive products were dependent on local circumstances for energy demand and fuel mix, and the assumed wood use for products. As projected future demand for biomass use in national GHG mitigation strategies could exceed sustainable biomass supply, analyses such as this can help identify biomass sources that achieve the greatest mitigation benefits.}, }
@article {pmid30182605, year = {2018}, author = {Li, HQ and Liu, XL and Wang, JH and Fu, YY and Ding, SM and Xie, WY and Zhang, J}, title = {[Influence of climate change on the suitable ranges for planting pickled mustard tuber in Chongqing.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {2651-2657}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201808.018}, pmid = {30182605}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Mustard Plant ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Pickled mustard tuber (Brassica juncea var. tumida) belonging to Cruciferae, is a unique economic crop in China. Climate is an important factor affecting the distribution of pickled mustard tuber. Based on species presence data at 279 locations and 22 high-resolution environmental factor layers, we analyzed the potential planting area of pickled mustard tuber in Chongqing by MaxEnt model under the current conditions and the future distributions for the periods 2050s and 2070s under the climate change scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that MaxEnt model was excellent in predicting its potential plan-ting area. The cumulative contributions of dominant factors reached as high as 81.7%, including precipitation of wettest month, temperature annual range, minimum temperature of coldest month, isothermality, mean diurnal range and average maximum temperature. The threshold of those factors was 173-183 mm, 27.2-28.3 ℃, 1.8-3.8 ℃, 22.5-24 ℃, 6.2-6.8 ℃ and 14.8-18.0 ℃, respectively. Under current condition, the optimum suitable areas of pickled mustard tuber, which amounted to 4.2%, were in the northeast, west and east of Fuling, the east and south of Changshou, the south and southeast of Dianjiang, the northwest and north of Fengdu, the southeast of Zhongxian, and a small part of Wulong and Nanchuan, while the proportion of moderately suitable areas was 6.3%. Under four climate change scenarios, the optimum suitable areas would drop to 2.7%, 3.8%, 3.1%, 3.2% and 3.1%, 3.7%, 3.5%, 2.9% for the periods 2050s and 2070s, respectively, while moderately suitable areas would rise gradually.}, }
@article {pmid30182168, year = {2018}, author = {Dugan, AJ and Birdsey, R and Mascorro, VS and Magnan, M and Smyth, CE and Olguin, M and Kurz, WA}, title = {A systems approach to assess climate change mitigation options in landscapes of the United States forest sector.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {13}, doi = {10.1186/s13021-018-0100-x}, pmid = {30182168}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: United States forests can contribute to national strategies for greenhouse gas reductions. The objective of this work was to evaluate forest sector climate change mitigation scenarios from 2018 to 2050 by applying a systems-based approach that accounts for net emissions across four interdependent components: (1) forest ecosystem, (2) land-use change, (3) harvested wood products, and (4) substitution benefits from using wood products and bioenergy. We assessed a range of land management and harvested wood product scenarios for two case studies in the U.S: coastal South Carolina and Northern Wisconsin. We integrated forest inventory and remotely-sensed disturbance data within a modelling framework consisting of a growth-and-yield driven ecosystem carbon model; a harvested wood products model that estimates emissions from commodity production, use and post-consumer treatment; and displacement factors to estimate avoided fossil fuel emissions. We estimated biophysical mitigation potential by comparing net emissions from land management and harvested wood products scenarios with a baseline ('business as usual') scenario.<br><br>RESULTS: Baseline scenario results showed that the strength of the ecosystem carbon sink has been decreasing in the two sites due to age-related productivity declines and deforestation. Mitigation activities have the potential to lessen or delay the further reduction in the carbon sink. Results of the mitigation analysis indicated that scenarios reducing net forest area loss were most effective in South Carolina, while extending harvest rotations and increasing longer-lived wood products were most effective in Wisconsin. Scenarios aimed at increasing bioenergy use either increased or reduced net emissions within the 32-year analysis timeframe.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: It is critical to apply a systems approach to comprehensively assess net emissions from forest sector climate change mitigation scenarios. Although some scenarios produced a benefit by displacing emissions from fossil fuel energy or by substituting wood products for other materials, these benefits can be outweighed by increased carbon emissions in the forest or product systems. Maintaining forests as forests, extending rotations, and shifting commodities to longer-lived products had the strongest mitigation benefits over several decades. Carbon cycle impacts of bioenergy depend on timeframe, feedstocks, and alternative uses of biomass, and cannot be assumed carbon neutral.}, }
@article {pmid30181643, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Global warming tops the agenda as climate brings down a third Australian prime minister.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {561}, number = {7721}, pages = {5-6}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06164-z}, pmid = {30181643}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30181268, year = {2018}, author = {Krinner, G and Flanner, MG}, title = {Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {38}, pages = {9462-9466}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1807912115}, pmid = {30181268}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Because all climate models exhibit biases, their use for assessing future climate change requires implicitly assuming or explicitly postulating that the biases are stationary or vary predictably. This hypothesis, however, has not been, and cannot be, tested directly. This work shows that under very large climate change the bias patterns of key climate variables exhibit a striking degree of stationarity. Using only correlation with a model's preindustrial bias pattern, a model's 4xCO2 bias pattern is objectively and correctly identified among a large model ensemble in almost all cases. This outcome would be exceedingly improbable if bias patterns were independent of climate state. A similar result is also found for bias patterns in two historical periods. This provides compelling and heretofore missing justification for using such models to quantify climate perturbation patterns and for selecting well-performing models for regional downscaling. Furthermore, it opens the way to extending bias corrections to perturbed states, substantially broadening the range of justified applications of climate models.}, }
@article {pmid30180761, year = {2018}, author = {Phillips, C and Lipman, GS and Gugelmann, H and Doering, K and Lung, D}, title = {Snakebites and climate change in California, 1997-2017.}, journal = {Clinical toxicology (Philadelphia, Pa.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-7}, doi = {10.1080/15563650.2018.1508690}, pmid = {30180761}, issn = {1556-9519}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change effect on flora and fauna has been scientifically documented, but the effect on North American venomous snakebites is unknown. The objectives were to examine Californian snakebite incidence and correlate with weather patterns and climate changes.<br><br>METHODS: A retrospective analysis of snakebites reported to the Californian Poison Control System from 1 September 1997 to 30 September 2017. Venomous snakebite reports were aggregated by caller zip code, and correlated per county with weather data, air temperature, precipitation, population data, eco-regions, and land characteristics. Time series decomposition by seasonality and trend, regression, and autocorrelation were used to assess association between climate variables and incidence.<br><br>RESULTS: There were 5365 reported venomous snakebites during the study period, with a median age of 37 years (22-51) with 76% male (p < .001, 95% CI 75.6-77.9%). Most snakebite outcomes were coded as minor (1363, 25%) or moderate (2607, 49%), with three deaths. Adjusted for population, the annualized incidence of snakebites statewide slightly decreased (rho = -0.11, p = .65). The snakebite incidence per million people rose after a period of no drought and declined during drought (r = -0.41, p ≪ .01). Snakebite incidence decreased by 6-month prior drought (-3.8% for each 10% increase in drought), and increased by 18-month prior precipitation (+3.9% for each 10% increase in precipitation).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of precipitation and drought had a significant and predictive effect on snakebites in California over a 20-year period. Snakebite incidence decreased following drought, and increased after precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid30180357, year = {2019}, author = {Longyang, Q}, title = {Assessing the effects of climate change on water quality of plateau deep-water lake - A study case of Hongfeng Lake.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {647}, number = {}, pages = {1518-1530}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.031}, pmid = {30180357}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change-related temperature increases and sea level rise have a significant impact on the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere. Impacts on ecosystems will mostly occur over the long term and short-term effects may consequently attract comparatively less attention from researchers and decision-makers. In this study, we investigate eight meteorological factors and eleven water quality indicators of deep-water lakes in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in southwestern China. A robust proxy model based on a seven-year dataset (2010-2016) was established to predict the effects of climate change on water quality in Hongfeng Lake over the coming years. Perturbation analysis revealed that global warming has a more significant effect on chlorophyll a levels than on total phosphorus or total nitrogen in the lake area, and that external nutrient loading is a key factor aggravating eutrophication. Non-point source pollution induced by heavy precipitation will likely lead to an increase in total nitrogen and the lake may become more phosphorus-restricted. Reducing external inputs and controlling endogenous releases will help alleviate eutrophication.}, }
@article {pmid30180331, year = {2019}, author = {Zhou, Y and Hartemink, AE and Shi, Z and Liang, Z and Lu, Y}, title = {Land use and climate change effects on soil organic carbon in North and Northeast China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {647}, number = {}, pages = {1230-1238}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.016}, pmid = {30180331}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Soil is recognized as the largest carbon reservoir in the terrestrial ecosystem. Soil organic carbon (SOC) is vulnerable to changes in land use and climate. For a better understanding of the SOC dynamics and its driving factors, we collected data of the 1980s and 2000s in the North and Northeast China and conducted the digital soil mapping for spatial variation of SOC for the respective period. In the 1980s, 585 soils were sampled and the area was resampled in 2003 and 2004 (1062 samples) in a 30-km grid. The main land use in the area was cropland, forest and grassland. The random forest was used to predict the SOC concentration and its temporal change using land use, terrain factors, vegetation index, vis-NIR spectra and climate factors as predictors. The average SOC concentration in 1985 was 10.0 g kg-1 compared to 12.5 g kg-1 in 2004. The SOC variation was similar over the two periods, and levels increased from south to north. The estimated SOC stock was 1.68 Pg in 1985 and 1.66 Pg in 2004, but the SOC changes were different under different land uses. Over the twenty-year period, average temperatures increased and large areas of forests and grassland were converted to cropland. SOC under cropland was increased by 0.094 Pg (+9%) whereas 0.089 Pg SOC was lost under forests (-25%) and 0.037 Pg in the soils under grassland (-25%). It is concluded that land use is the main drivers for SOC changes in this area while climate change had different contributions in different regions. SOC loss was remarkable under the land use conversion while cropland has considerable potential to sequester SOC.}, }
@article {pmid30179545, year = {2018}, author = {Tuller, D}, title = {Confronting The Effects Of Climate Change On Health In California.}, journal = {Health affairs (Project Hope)}, volume = {37}, number = {9}, pages = {1354-1357}, doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2018.0942}, pmid = {30179545}, issn = {1544-5208}, abstract = {Vulnerable communities have been forced to address the deepening impact of severe weather events on residents' well-being.}, }
@article {pmid30179479, year = {2018}, author = {Anderson, CM and Kissel, KA and Field, CB and Mach, KJ}, title = {Climate Change Mitigation, Air Pollution, and Environmental Justice in California.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {52}, number = {18}, pages = {10829-10838}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.8b00908}, pmid = {30179479}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Climate change mitigation policies can have significant co-benefits for air quality, including benefits to disadvantaged communities experiencing substantial air pollution. However, the effects of these mitigation policies have rarely been evaluated with respect to their influence on disadvantaged communities. Here we assess the air pollution and environmental justice implications of California's cap-and-trade mitigation program through analysis of (1) the sources of air pollution in disadvantaged communities, (2) emissions-reduction offset usage under the cap-and-trade program, and (3) the relationship between reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and reductions in co-pollutant emissions. Our analysis suggests that the cap-and-trade program has limited impacts, including limited disproportionate impacts, on air quality in disadvantaged communities. The sources of most air pollution in these communities have not been subject to the cap-and-trade program, and the use of emissions-reduction offsets is only marginally higher in disadvantaged communities than in other communities. Furthermore, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions imply smaller proportional reductions in co-pollutant emissions. While climate policies lead to important air quality co-benefits in some contexts, especially through reduced coal usage, targeted air quality policies and regulations may be more effective for reducing air pollution in disadvantaged communities in California and throughout the state.}, }
@article {pmid30177567, year = {2018}, author = {Foster, GL and Hull, P and Lunt, DJ and Zachos, JC}, title = {Placing our current 'hyperthermal' in the context of rapid climate change in our geological past.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {376}, number = {2130}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2017.0086}, pmid = {30177567}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {'…there are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.' Donald Rumsfeld 12th February 2002.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.}, }
@article {pmid30177247, year = {2018}, author = {Rifkin, DI and Long, MW and Perry, MJ}, title = {Climate change and sleep: A systematic review of the literature and conceptual framework.}, journal = {Sleep medicine reviews}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.smrv.2018.07.007}, pmid = {30177247}, issn = {1532-2955}, abstract = {From disaster related stress causing insomnia, to poor air quality causing sleep related breathing problems, climate change poses a potentially serious threat to human sleep. We conducted a systematic review evaluating the relationship between climate change and human sleep in the PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane databases from 1980 through 2017 following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Inclusion criteria included epidemiologic studies published in English that reported observational population data on human sleep and its relationship to climate change, temperature, extreme weather events and climate related disasters (e.g. hurricanes, floods, and wildfires). We excluded non-human studies, laboratory or experimental physiology studies, commentaries or letters, review articles, and articles on wind turbines. Using a systematic search strategy, 16 studies met the inclusion criteria. Six studies related to the effects of rising temperature, seven studies related to extreme weather events, and three studies related to floods or wildfires. Diminished total sleep times and sleep disruption were most commonly reported, especially among the most vulnerable populations including the elderly and low-income; however, the body of evidence was limited and further well-designed human studies are clearly needed. We present a conceptual framework for identifying the emerging threats of climate change and understanding their respective effects on human sleep.}, }
@article {pmid30177006, year = {2018}, author = {Anglaret, X}, title = {I would prefer not to aggravate global warming.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {e382-e383}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30171-2}, pmid = {30177006}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid30177000, year = {2018}, author = {Shultz, JM and Kossin, JP and Ettman, C and Kinney, PL and Galea, S}, title = {The 2017 perfect storm season, climate change, and environmental injustice.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {e370-e371}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30168-2}, pmid = {30177000}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid30176471, year = {2019}, author = {Hoang, LP and van Vliet, MTH and Kummu, M and Lauri, H and Koponen, J and Supit, I and Leemans, R and Kabat, P and Ludwig, F}, title = {The Mekong's future flows under multiple drivers: How climate change, hydropower developments and irrigation expansions drive hydrological changes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {649}, number = {}, pages = {601-609}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.160}, pmid = {30176471}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The river flow regime and water resources are highly important for economic growths, flood security, and ecosystem dynamics in the Mekong basin - an important transboundary river basin in South East Asia. The river flow, although remains relatively unregulated, is expected to be increasingly perturbed by climate change and rapidly accelerating socioeconomic developments. Current understanding about hydrological changes under the combined impacts of these drivers, however, remains limited. This study presents projected hydrological changes caused by multiple drivers, namely climate change, large-scale hydropower developments, and irrigated land expansions by 2050s. We found that the future flow regime is highly susceptible to all considered drivers, shown by substantial changes in both annual and seasonal flow distribution. While hydropower developments exhibit limited impacts on annual total flows, climate change and irrigation expansions cause changes of +15% and -3% in annual flows, respectively. However, hydropower developments show the largest seasonal impacts characterized by higher dry season flows (up to +70%) and lower wet season flows (-15%). These strong seasonal impacts tend to outplay those of the other drivers, resulting in the overall hydrological change pattern of strong increases of the dry season flow (up to +160%); flow reduction in the first half of the wet season (up to -25%); and slight flow increase in the second half of the wet season (up to 40%). Furthermore, the cumulative impacts of all drivers cause substantial flow reductions during the early wet season (up to -25% in July), posing challenges for crop production and saltwater intrusion in the downstream Mekong Delta. Substantial flow changes and their consequences require careful considerations of future development activities, as well as timely adaptation to future changes.}, }
@article {pmid30176458, year = {2019}, author = {Deligios, PA and Chergia, AP and Sanna, G and Solinas, S and Todde, G and Narvarte, L and Ledda, L}, title = {Climate change adaptation and water saving by innovative irrigation management applied on open field globe artichoke.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {649}, number = {}, pages = {461-472}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.349}, pmid = {30176458}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The setting up of innovative irrigation water management might contribute to the mitigation of negative issues related to climate change. Our hypothesis was that globe artichoke irrigated with a traditionally drip system could be converted to an innovative water management system based on precision irrigation techniques and on evaporative cooling application in order to improve crop physiological status with positive impacts on earliness, total heads yield and water saving. Over two experiments carried out at plot- and field-scale, two irrigation management systems, differing in type and application time, were compared: (i) conventional, and (ii) canopy-cooling. Plant physiological status at a weekly sampling interval and the head atrophy incidence (as the ratio of the total primary heads collected) were monitored. We also recorded and determined heads production, and yield components. In both experiments, throughout the application period of evaporative cooling (three months), canopy-cooling showed the lowest value of leaf temperature and the highest photosynthesis values compared with the conventional one (+3 °C and -30%, respectively). The physiological advantage gained by the crop with evaporative cooling has led to a higher production both in terms of total yield (+30%), and in terms of harvested first order heads that from an economic viewpoint are the most profitable for farmers. At farm-scale, the canopy-cooling treatment resulted in a higher earliness (35 days) and water productivity (+36%) compared with conventional one. Our findings show that by combining evaporative cooling practice with precision irrigation technique the heads yield can be optimized also leading to a relevant water saving (-34%). Moreover, the study proved that canopy-cooling set up might be a winning strategy in order to mitigate climatic changes and heat stress conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30173951, year = {2018}, author = {Nogués-Bravo, D and Rodríguez-Sánchez, F and Orsini, L and de Boer, E and Jansson, R and Morlon, H and Fordham, DA and Jackson, ST}, title = {Cracking the Code of Biodiversity Responses to Past Climate Change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {33}, number = {10}, pages = {765-776}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2018.07.005}, pmid = {30173951}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {How individual species and entire ecosystems will respond to future climate change are among the most pressing questions facing ecologists. Past biodiversity dynamics recorded in the paleoecological archives show a broad array of responses, yet significant knowledge gaps remain. In particular, the relative roles of evolutionary adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, and dispersal in promoting survival during times of climate change have yet to be clarified. Investigating the paleo-archives offers great opportunities to understand biodiversity responses to future climate change. In this review we discuss the mechanisms by which biodiversity responds to environmental change, and identify gaps of knowledge on the role of range shifts and tolerance. We also outline approaches at the intersection of paleoecology, genomics, experiments, and predictive models that will elucidate the processes by which species have survived past climatic changes and enhance predictions of future changes in biological diversity.}, }
@article {pmid30173057, year = {2018}, author = {Schmidt, A and Creason, W and Law, BE}, title = {Estimating regional effects of climate change and altered land use on biosphere carbon fluxes using distributed time delay neural networks with Bayesian regularized learning.}, journal = {Neural networks : the official journal of the International Neural Network Society}, volume = {108}, number = {}, pages = {97-113}, doi = {10.1016/j.neunet.2018.08.004}, pmid = {30173057}, issn = {1879-2782}, abstract = {The ability to accurately predict changes of the carbon and energy balance on a regional scale is of great importance for assessing the effect of land use changes on carbon sequestration under future climate conditions. Here, a suite of land cover-specific Distributed Time Delay Neural Networks with a parameter adoption algorithm optimized through Bayesian regularization was used to model the statewide atmospheric exchange of CO2, water vapor, and energy in Oregon with its strong spatial gradients of climate and land cover. The network models were trained with eddy covariance data from 9 atmospheric flux towers. Compared to results derived with more common regression networks utilizing non-delayed input vectors, the performance of the DTDNN models was significantly improved with an average increase of the coefficients of determination of 64%. The optimized models were applied in combination with downscaled climate projections of the CMIP5 project to calculate future changes in the cycle of carbon, associated with a prescribed conversion of conventional grass-crops to hybrid poplar plantations for biofuel production in Oregon. The results show that under future RCP8.5 climate conditions the total statewide NEP increases by 0.87 TgC per decade until 2050 without any land use changes. With all non-forage grass completely converted to hybrid poplar the NEP averages 32.9 TgC in 2046-2050, an increase of 9%. Through comparisons with the results of a Bayesians inversion study, the results presented demonstrate that DTDNN models are a specifically well-suited approach to use the available data from flux networks to assess changes in biosphere-atmosphere exchange triggered by massive land use conversion superimposed on a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid30172574, year = {2018}, author = {Lilienfeld, E and Nicholas, PK and Breakey, S and Corless, IB}, title = {Addressing climate change through a nursing lens within the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals: A scoping review.}, journal = {Nursing outlook}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.outlook.2018.06.010}, pmid = {30172574}, issn = {1528-3968}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In 2000, the United Nations (UN) introduced the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), described as a global movement with the primary aim of ending world-wide poverty (&quot;Millennium Summit,&quot; 2000). The second phase of the project, known as the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) agenda offers an increased emphasis on lessening the mitigating factors associated with climate change and adapting to the negative effects of climate change. Nurses are in the unique position to address the health-related impacts related to climate change through community health approaches aimed at education and promotion of environmental stewardship.<br><br>PURPOSE: The purpose of this scoping review was to examine the relationships among the health consequences of climate change, nursing literature on climate change, and nursing implications. The following will be addressed: &quot;What is nursing's role in policy, practice, and advocacy when addressing the effects of climate change? What is the importance of the SDGs as a framework for addressing climate change in the role of nursing?&quot;<br><br>METHOD: This scoping review of the literature was conducted which included the evaluation of a broad range of articles using scoping methods as frameworks.<br><br>RESULTS: An overarching theme regarding the nursing community's responsibility in addressing the effects of climate change and their role as advocates, educators, and global citizens was extracted from the scoping review.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There are many opportunities for nurses to become actively involved in efforts aimed at mitigation, adaptation, and resilience efforts in climate change, including becoming involved in policy, advocacy, research, and practice opportunities.}, }
@article {pmid30168745, year = {2018}, author = {Ramanathan, V and Samet, J and Neira, M and Sorondo, MS}, title = {Air Pollution, Climate Change, and Health: A Declaration from the Vatican.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {1027-1029}, doi = {10.1513/AnnalsATS.201805-319ED}, pmid = {30168745}, issn = {2325-6621}, }
@article {pmid30167455, year = {2018}, author = {Gaines, SD and Costello, C and Owashi, B and Mangin, T and Bone, J and Molinos, JG and Burden, M and Dennis, H and Halpern, BS and Kappel, CV and Kleisner, KM and Ovando, D}, title = {Improved fisheries management could offset many negative effects of climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {8}, pages = {eaao1378}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aao1378}, pmid = {30167455}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {The world's oceans supply food and livelihood to billions of people, yet species' shifting geographic ranges and changes in productivity arising from climate change are expected to profoundly affect these benefits. We ask how improvements in fishery management can offset the negative consequences of climate change; we find that the answer hinges on the current status of stocks. The poor current status of many stocks combined with potentially maladaptive responses to range shifts could reduce future global fisheries yields and profits even more severely than previous estimates have suggested. However, reforming fisheries in ways that jointly fix current inefficiencies, adapt to fisheries productivity changes, and proactively create effective transboundary institutions could lead to a future with higher profits and yields compared to what is produced today.}, }
@article {pmid30166779, year = {2018}, author = {Babaie, J and Barati, M and Azizi, M and Ephtekhari, A and Sadat, SJ}, title = {A systematic evidence review of the effect of climate change on malaria in Iran.}, journal = {Journal of parasitic diseases : official organ of the Indian Society for Parasitology}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {331-340}, doi = {10.1007/s12639-018-1017-8}, pmid = {30166779}, issn = {0971-7196}, abstract = {Climate is an effective factor in the ecological structure which plays an important role in control and outbreak of the diseases caused by biological factors like malaria. With regard to the occurring climatic change, this study aimed to review the effects of climate change on malaria in Iran. In this systematic review, Cochrane, PubMed and ScienceDirect (as international databases), SID and Magiran as Persian databases were investigated through MESH keywords including climate change, global warming, malaria, Anopheles, and Iran. The related articles were screened and finally their results were extracted using data extraction sheets. Totally 41 papers were resulted through databases searching process. Finally 14 papers which met inclusion criteria were included in data extraction stage. The findings indicated that Anopheles mosquitoes are present at least in 115 places in Iran; they are compatible with climatic zones of Iran. Malaria and it's vectors are affected by climate change. Temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind intensity and direction are the most important climatic factors affecting the growth and proliferation of Anopheles, Plasmodium and the prevalence of malaria. The transmission of malaria in Iran is associated with the climatic factors of temperature, rainfall, and humidity. Therefore, with regard to the occurring climatic change, the incidence of the disease may also change which needs to be taken into consideration while planning of malaria control.}, }
@article {pmid30166778, year = {2018}, author = {Van Lange, PAM and Joireman, J and Milinski, M}, title = {Climate Change: What Psychology Can Offer in Terms of Insights and Solutions.}, journal = {Current directions in psychological science}, volume = {27}, number = {4}, pages = {269-274}, doi = {10.1177/0963721417753945}, pmid = {30166778}, issn = {0963-7214}, abstract = {Can psychological science offer evidence-based solutions to climate change? Using insights and principles derived from the literature on social dilemmas and human cooperation, we discuss evidence in support of three solutions: crossing the borders of thought, time, and space. First, borders of thought could be crossed by using persuasion that is concrete and tailored to local circumstances and by highlighting information about people's efforts as evidence against the myth of self-interest. Second, borders of time could be crossed by using kinship cues, which can help make the future less distant, and relatively uninvolved advisors, who may help make the future salient. And third, borders of space could be crossed by showing group representatives how they might benefit from a frame of altruistic competition-focusing on the benefits of being seen as moral and global in orientation. Our overall conclusion is that psychological science can offer evidence-based solutions to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30166491, year = {2018}, author = {Nolan, C and Overpeck, JT and Allen, JRM and Anderson, PM and Betancourt, JL and Binney, HA and Brewer, S and Bush, MB and Chase, BM and Cheddadi, R and Djamali, M and Dodson, J and Edwards, ME and Gosling, WD and Haberle, S and Hotchkiss, SC and Huntley, B and Ivory, SJ and Kershaw, AP and Kim, SH and Latorre, C and Leydet, M and Lézine, AM and Liu, KB and Liu, Y and Lozhkin, AV and McGlone, MS and Marchant, RA and Momohara, A and Moreno, PI and Müller, S and Otto-Bliesner, BL and Shen, C and Stevenson, J and Takahara, H and Tarasov, PE and Tipton, J and Vincens, A and Weng, C and Xu, Q and Zheng, Z and Jackson, ST}, title = {Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {361}, number = {6405}, pages = {920-923}, doi = {10.1126/science.aan5360}, pmid = {30166491}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid30161113, year = {2018}, author = {Bennett, H and King, P}, title = {Pro-equity climate change and environmental sustainability action by district health boards in Aotearoa/New Zealand.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {131}, number = {1481}, pages = {56-63}, pmid = {30161113}, issn = {1175-8716}, abstract = {AIM: With current health ministerial directives to prioritise actions on reducing health inequities and district health board (DHB) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, we argue that all climate change and environmental sustainability actions by DHBs must be pro-equity, and explore how the two priorities can be addressed concurrently.<br><br>METHOD: Building on prior knowledge of climate change and environmental sustainability action in the health and disability sector, we undertook a visioning exercise to generate ideas for pro-equity GHG emissions reduction initiatives in the DHB context. Visioning was further informed by presentation and feedback discussion at an Annual Scientific Meeting of the New Zealand College of Public Health Medicine.<br><br>RESULTS: Three scenarios were envisioned in the areas of DHB energy use, transport and procurement where GHG emissions could be reduced, and health determinants and outcomes for Māori and Pacific peoples improved.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Current ministerial directives to address both health inequities and DHB greenhouse gas emissions present DHBs with the opportunity to ensure they systematically address both priorities at the same time. In doing so, Aotearoa/New Zealand has the potential to lead the world in demonstrating pro-equity climate change and sustainability action in health systems.}, }
@article {pmid30160697, year = {2017}, author = {Maksimovic, Z and Cornwell, MS and Semren, O and Rifatbegovic, M}, title = {The apparent role of climate change in a recent anthrax outbreak in cattle.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {36}, number = {3}, pages = {959-963}, doi = {10.20506/rst.36.3.2727}, pmid = {30160697}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthrax/epidemiology/*veterinary ; Bacillus anthracis/isolation &amp; purification ; Bosnia and Herzegovina/epidemiology ; Cattle ; Cattle Diseases/epidemiology/*microbiology ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks/*veterinary ; }, abstract = {An anthrax outbreak recently occurred in cattle in a region that had previously been free of the disease for more than two decades. This event followed heavy springtime rains that had caused flooding, and a hot, dry summer. These temporally connected events may indicate a new link between climate change and an increased incidence of bacterial diseases with environmental reservoirs.}, }
@article {pmid30159651, year = {2018}, author = {Limaye, VS and Vargo, J and Harkey, M and Holloway, T and Patz, JA}, title = {Climate Change and Heat-Related Excess Mortality in the Eastern USA.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {485-496}, doi = {10.1007/s10393-018-1363-0}, pmid = {30159651}, issn = {1612-9210}, support = {1R21ES020232-01//National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change will increase extreme heat-related health risks. To quantify the health impacts of mid-century climate change, we assess heat-related excess mortality across the eastern USA. Health risks are estimated using the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Mid-century temperature estimates, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, are compared to 2007 temperatures at 36 km and 12 km resolutions. Models indicate the average apparent and actual summer temperatures rise by 4.5° and 3.3° C, respectively. Warmer average apparent temperatures could cause 11,562 additional annual deaths (95% confidence interval, CI: 2641-20,095) due to cardiovascular stress in the population aged 65 years and above, while higher minimum temperatures could cause 8767 (95% CI: 5030-12,475) additional deaths each year. Modeled future climate data available at both coarse (36 km) and fine (12 km) resolutions predict significant human health impacts from warmer climates. The findings suggest that currently available information on future climates is sufficient to guide regional planning for the protection of public health. Higher resolution climate and demographic data are still needed to inform more targeted interventions.}, }
@article {pmid30159527, year = {2017}, author = {Entwisle, TJ and Cole, C and Symes, P}, title = {Adapting the botanical landscape of Melbourne Gardens (Royal Botanic Gardens Victoria) in response to climate change.}, journal = {Plant diversity}, volume = {39}, number = {6}, pages = {338-347}, doi = {10.1016/j.pld.2017.11.001}, pmid = {30159527}, issn = {2468-2659}, abstract = {Botanic gardens around the world maintain collections of living plants for science, conservation, education, beauty and more. These collections change over time - in scope and content - but the predicted impacts of climate change will require a more strategic approach to the succession of plant species and their landscapes. Royal Botanic Gardens Victoria has recently published a 'Landscape Succession Strategy' for its Melbourne Gardens, a spectacular botanical landscape established in 1846. The strategy recognizes that with 1.6 million visitors each year, responsibility for a heritage-listed landscape and the need to care for a collection of 8500 plant species of conservation and scientific importance, planting and planning must take into account anticipated changes to rainfall and temperature. The trees we plant today must be suitable for the climate of the twenty-second century. Specifically, the Strategy sets out the steps needed over the next twenty years to transition the botanic garden to one resilient to the climate modelled for 2090. The document includes a range of practical measures and achievable (and at times somewhat aspirational) targets. Climate analogues will be used to identify places in Australia and elsewhere with conditions today similar to those predicted for Melbourne in 2090, to help select new species for the collection. Modelling of the natural and cultivated distribution of species will be used to help select suitable growth forms to replace existing species of high value or interest. Improved understanding of temperature gradients within the botanic garden, water holding capacity of soils and plant water use behaviour is already resulting in better targeted planting and irrigation. The goal is to retain a similar diversity of species but transition the collection so that by 2036 at least 75% of the species are suitable for the climate in 2090. Over the next few years we hope to provide 100% of irrigation water from sustainable water sources, and infrastructure will be improved to adapt to predicted higher temperatures and more climatic extremes. At all times there will be a strong focus on assisting the broader community in their response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30157226, year = {2018}, author = {Martínez-Jauregui, M and Serra-Varela, MJ and Díaz, M and Soliño, M}, title = {Mitigation strategies for conserving bird diversity under climate change scenarios in Europe: The role of forest naturalization.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {e0202009}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0202009}, pmid = {30157226}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {There are many possible strategies to promote naturalization in anthropogenic landscapes to mitigate global change effects. We combined large-scale databases available for continental Spain on: (1) distribution of breeding birds, (2) forest inventory stands, (3) land-use cover, (4) 18 global climate models recently developed at local scales, and (5) historical and genetically-based information on the distribution of natural versus planted pine forests, to analyze whether back to nature strategies may help to mitigate biodiversity loss due to climate change. We performed the analysis along environmental and ecological gradients of pine forests in Southern Europe. Models suggested that, naturalization strategies, in this case defined by the replacement of planted pine forests and eucalyptus forests by natural pine forests, could help to mitigate the expected loss of bird diversity due to climate change, but that mitigation efficiency will vary along environmental and ecological gradients. Maximum levels of diversity mitigation were predicted at intermediate levels of naturalization, with lower bird richness in areas where all pine forests were either planted or naturalized. Efficiency also varied spatially, given that both cold- and hot-spots of climate-driven bird diversity loss were identified. Transforming planted forest into natural forest is not a mitigation panacea, and additional regionally-adapted strategies may be identified to mitigate the expected biodiversity loss in forest ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30156484, year = {2018}, author = {Walker, JT}, title = {The influence of climate change on waterborne disease and Legionella: a review.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {138}, number = {5}, pages = {282-286}, doi = {10.1177/1757913918791198}, pmid = {30156484}, issn = {1757-9147}, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to have a major impact on people's lives with the recent extreme weather events and varying abnormal temperature profiles across the world raising concerns. The impacts of global warming are already being observed, from rising sea levels and melting snow and ice to changing weather patterns. Scientists state unequivocally that these trends cannot be explained by natural variability in climate alone. Human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels, have warmed the earth by dramatically increasing concentrations of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere; as these concentrations increase, the more the earth will warm. Climate change and related extreme weather events are being exacerbated sooner than has previously been considered and are already adversely affecting ecosystems and human health by increasing the burden and type of disease at a local level. Changes to the marine environment and freshwater supplies already affect significant parts of the world's population and warmer temperatures, especially in more temperate regions, may see an increased spread and transmission of diseases usually associated with warmer climes including, for example, cholera and malaria; these impacts are likely to become more severe in a greater number of countries. This review discusses the impacts of climate change including changes in infectious disease transmission, patterns of waterborne diseases and the likely consequences of climate change due to warmer water, drought, higher rainfall, rising sea levels and flooding.}, }
@article {pmid30155993, year = {2018}, author = {Bigot, S and Buges, J and Gilly, L and Jacques, C and Le Boulch, P and Berger, M and Delcros, P and Domergue, JB and Koehl, A and Ley-Ngardigal, B and Tran Van Canh, L and Couée, I}, title = {Pivotal roles of environmental sensing and signaling mechanisms in plant responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14433}, pmid = {30155993}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change reshapes the physiology and development of organisms through phenotypic plasticity, epigenetic modifications, and genetic adaptation. Under evolutionary pressures of the sessile lifestyle, plants possess efficient systems of phenotypic plasticity and acclimation to environmental conditions. Molecular analysis, especially through omics approaches, of these primary lines of environmental adjustment in the context of climate change has revealed the underlying biochemical and physiological mechanisms, thus characterizing the links between phenotypic plasticity and climate change responses. The efficiency of adaptive plasticity under climate change indeed depends on the realization of such biochemical and physiological mechanisms, but the importance of sensing and signaling mechanisms that can integrate perception of environmental cues and transduction into physiological responses is often overlooked. Recent progress opens the possibility of considering plant phenotypic plasticity and responses to climate change through the perspective of environmental sensing and signaling. This review aims to analyze present knowledge on plant sensing and signaling mechanisms and discuss how their structural and functional characteristics lead to resilience or hypersensitivity under conditions of climate change. Plant cells are endowed with arrays of environmental and stress sensors and with internal signals that act as molecular integrators of the multiple constraints of climate change, thus giving rise to potential mechanisms of climate change sensing. Moreover, mechanisms of stress-related information propagation lead to stress memory and acquired stress tolerance that could withstand different scenarios of modifications of stress frequency and intensity. However, optimal functioning of existing sensors, optimal integration of additive constraints and signals, or memory processes can be hampered by conflicting interferences between novel combinations and novel changes in intensity and duration of climate change-related factors. Analysis of these contrasted situations emphasizes the need for future research on the diversity and robustness of plant signaling mechanisms under climate change conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30154576, year = {2018}, author = {Piñeiro-Corbeira, C and Barreiro, R and Cremades, J and Arenas, F}, title = {Seaweed assemblages under a climate change scenario: Functional responses to temperature of eight intertidal seaweeds match recent abundance shifts.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {12978}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-31357-x}, pmid = {30154576}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Field evidence is essential to assess the consequences of climate change but a solid causal link often requires additional information obtained under controlled laboratory conditions. Additionally, the functional response to temperature may also help to discriminate species potentially more vulnerable to warming. Using a highly resolved temperature gradient, we examined the temperature dependence of photosynthesis and respiration in eight intertidal seaweeds that recently followed opposite abundance trends in NW Iberia. The temperature dependence of photosynthesis was consistently different between the macroalgae that increased and those that decreased their abundance in the last decade and a half, with photosynthesis twice more sensitive in the upward group. Unlike photosynthesis, the temperature dependence of respiration was unrelated to the abundance trend group, implying that the net metabolic scaling with temperature varied between the two groups of seaweeds. Overall, our results provide experimental support to the role of temperate as a likely driver of the changes in abundance recorded by field-monitoring studies. They also suggest that the temperature dependence of photosynthesis and respiration assessed in short-term experiments may serve as a biomarker of the potential vulnerability of some seaweed to the consequences of water warming.}, }
@article {pmid30154536, year = {2018}, author = {Reardon, S}, title = {Trump's science-adviser pick hedges on climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7720}, pages = {536-537}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06019-7}, pmid = {30154536}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30153361, year = {2018}, author = {Sigdel, SR and Wang, Y and Camarero, JJ and Zhu, H and Liang, E and Peñuelas, J}, title = {Moisture-mediated responsiveness of treeline shifts to global warming in the Himalayas.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5549-5559}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14428}, pmid = {30153361}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {41661144040//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; //Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS/ ; //CAS-TWAS/ ; //Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; ERC-SyG-2013-610028//European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Among forest ecosystems, the alpine treeline ecotone can be considered to be a simplified model to study global ecology and climate change. Alpine treelines are expected to shift upwards in response to global warming given that tree recruitment and growth are assumed to be mainly limited by low temperatures. However, little is known whether precipitation and temperature interact to drive long-term Himalayan treeline dynamics. Tree growth is affected by spring rainfall in the central Himalayan treelines, being good locations for testing if, in addition to temperature, precipitation mediates treeline dynamics. To test this hypothesis, we reconstructed spatiotemporal variations in treeline dynamics in 20 plots located at six alpine treeline sites, dominated by two tree species (birch, fir), and situated along an east-west precipitation gradient in the central Himalayas. Our reconstructions evidenced that treelines shifted upward in response to recent climate warming, but their shift rates were primarily mediated by spring precipitation. The rate of upward shift was higher in the wettest eastern Himalayas, suggesting that its ascent rate was facilitated by spring precipitation. The drying tendency in association with the recent warming trends observed in the central Himalayas, however, will likely hinder an upslope advancement of alpine treelines and promote downward treeline shifts if moisture availability crosses a critical minimum threshold. Our study highlights the complexity of plant responses to climate and the need to consider multiple climate factors when analyzing treeline dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid30152470, year = {2017}, author = {Baylis, M and Caminade, C and Turner, J and Jones, AE}, title = {The role of climate change in a developing threat: the case of bluetongue in Europe.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {467-478}, doi = {10.20506/rst.36.2.2667}, pmid = {30152470}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; Bluetongue/*epidemiology/transmission ; Bluetongue virus/*physiology ; Ceratopogonidae/*physiology/virology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/transmission/veterinary/virology ; Disease Outbreaks/veterinary ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/physiology/*virology ; Sheep ; }, abstract = {There is a solid theoretical basis for expecting climate change to have a considerable effect on the infectious diseases of humans, animals and plants. Vector-borne diseases are the most likely to be affected. It is, however, rare to observe such impacts, as diseases are also influenced by many other drivers, some of which may have stronger effects over shorter time scales than climate change. Nevertheless, there is evidence that our warming climate has already influenced some animal diseases, of which bluetongue is considered a prime example. Bluetongue emerged dramatically in southern Europe after 1998 and in northern Europe from 2006. While the speed and scale of this emergence is a challenge to explain, there is evidence, principally from the development of climate-driven models, that recent climate change has played a significant role. Climate-driven models point to an increase in the risk of bluetongue transmission in Europe in recent decades, caused by an increased suitability of parts of southern Europe for the Afro-tropical biting midge, Culicoides imicola, as well as an increase in the vectorial capacity of indigenous Culicoides vectors in northern Europe. Farm-to-farm transmission models of bluetongue in England and Wales under predicted climatic conditions further suggest that, under high-emission scenarios, the scale of future outbreaks could far exceed those experienced to date. The role of climate change in the developing threat of animal disease is, therefore, likely to be economically and socially costly, unless lower emission targets can be set and followed.}, }
@article {pmid30152194, year = {2018}, author = {Kornder, NA and Riegl, BM and Figueiredo, J}, title = {Thresholds and drivers of coral calcification responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5084-5095}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14431}, pmid = {30152194}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Institute of International Education/ ; //Germanistic Society of America/ ; }, abstract = {Increased temperature and CO2 levels are considered key drivers of coral reef degradation. However, individual assessments of ecological responses (calcification) to these stressors are often contradicting. To detect underlying drivers of heterogeneity in coral calcification responses, we developed a procedure for the inclusion of stress-effect relationships in ecological meta-analyses. We applied this technique to a dataset of 294 empirical observations from 62 peer-reviewed publications testing individual and combined effects of elevated temperature and pCO2 on coral calcification. Our results show an additive interaction between warming and acidification, which reduces coral calcification by 20% when pCO2 levels exceed 700 ppm and temperature increases by 3°C. However, stress levels varied among studies and significantly affected outcomes, with unaffected calcification rates under moderate stresses (pCO2 ≤ 700 ppm, ΔT < 3°C). Future coral reef carbon budgets will therefore depend on the magnitude of pCO2 and temperature elevations and, thus, anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Accounting for stress-effect relationships enabled us to identify additional drivers of heterogeneity including coral taxa, life stage, habitat, food availability, climate, and season. These differences can aid reef management identifying refuges and conservation priorities, but without a global effort to reduce CO2 emissions, coral capacity to build reefs will be at risk.}, }
@article {pmid30151036, year = {2018}, author = {Kingsolver, JG and Buckley, LB}, title = {How do phenology, plasticity, and evolution determine the fitness consequences of climate change for montane butterflies?.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {1231-1244}, doi = {10.1111/eva.12618}, pmid = {30151036}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Species have responded to climate change via seasonal (phenological) shifts, morphological plasticity, and evolutionary adaptation, but how these responses contribute to changes and variation in population fitness are poorly understood. We assess the interactions and relative importance of these responses for fitness in a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle, along an elevational gradient. Because environmental temperatures affect developmental rates of each life stage, populations along the gradients differ in phenological timing and the number of generations each year. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity of adult butterflies, exhibits local adaptation across elevation and responds plastically to developmental temperatures. We integrate climatic data for the past half-century with microclimate, developmental, biophysical, demographic, and evolutionary models for this system to predict how phenology, plasticity, and evolution contribute to phenotypic and fitness variation along the gradient. We predict that phenological advancements incompletely compensate for climate warming, and also influence morphological plasticity. Climate change is predicted to increase mean population fitness in the first seasonal generation at high elevation, but decrease mean fitness in the summer generations at low elevation. Phenological shifts reduce the interannual variation in directional selection and morphology, but do not have consistent effects on variation in mean fitness. Morphological plasticity and its evolution can substantially increase population fitness and adaptation to climate change at low elevations, but environmental unpredictability limits adaptive plastic and evolutionary responses at high elevations. Phenological shifts also decrease the relative fitness advantages of morphological plasticity and evolution. Our results illustrate how the potential contributions of phenological and morphological plasticity and of evolution to climate change adaptation can vary along environmental gradients and how environmental variability will limit adaptive responses to climate change in montane regions.}, }
@article {pmid30150388, year = {2018}, author = {Staubwasser, M and Drăgușin, V and Onac, BP and Assonov, S and Ersek, V and Hoffmann, DL and Veres, D}, title = {Impact of climate change on the transition of Neanderthals to modern humans in Europe.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {37}, pages = {9116-9121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1808647115}, pmid = {30150388}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Archaeology ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Extinction, Biological ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; *Neanderthals ; }, abstract = {Two speleothem stable isotope records from East-Central Europe demonstrate that Greenland Stadial 12 (GS12) and GS10-at 44.3-43.3 and 40.8-40.2 ka-were prominent intervals of cold and arid conditions. GS12, GS11, and GS10 are coeval with a regional pattern of culturally (near-)sterile layers within Europe's diachronous archeologic transition from Neanderthals to modern human Aurignacian. Sterile layers coeval with GS12 precede the Aurignacian throughout the middle and upper Danube region. In some records from the northern Iberian Peninsula, such layers are coeval with GS11 and separate the Châtelperronian from the Aurignacian. Sterile layers preceding the Aurignacian in the remaining Châtelperronian domain are coeval with GS10 and the previously reported 40.0- to 40.8-ka cal BP [calendar years before present (1950)] time range of Neanderthals' disappearance from most of Europe. This suggests that ecologic stress during stadial expansion of steppe landscape caused a diachronous pattern of depopulation of Neanderthals, which facilitated repopulation by modern humans who appear to have been better adapted to this environment. Consecutive depopulation-repopulation cycles during severe stadials of the middle pleniglacial may principally explain the repeated replacement of Europe's population and its genetic composition.}, }
@article {pmid30147799, year = {2018}, author = {Wamsler, C}, title = {Mind the gap: The role of mindfulness in adapting to increasing risk and climate change.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {1121-1135}, doi = {10.1007/s11625-017-0524-3}, pmid = {30147799}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {It is becoming clear that increasingly complex global challenges cannot simply be solved by new technology or governments alone. We also need to develop new social practices and encourage a broader cultural shift towards sustainability. Against this background, this paper explores the role of mindfulness in adapting to increasing risk and climate change. Based on a literature review, it assesses current research on 'mindful climate adaptation', and explores how individual mindfulness is linked to climate adaptation. While in practice mindfulness-based approaches to climate adaptation have gained widespread recognition (e.g., by the United Nations), the results show that related research is scarce and fragmented. There is almost no research into the role of mindfulness in climate adaptation. At the same time, new scientific domains are opening up in cognate fields that illuminate the mindfulness-adaptation nexus from certain perspectives. These fields include: (1) disaster management; (2) individual well-being; (3) organisational management; (4) environmental behaviour; (5) social justice; and (6) knowledge production. As new concepts and approaches emerge, they require critical construct validation and empirical testing. The importance of further investigation is supported by a complementary empirical study, which shows that individual mindfulness disposition coincides with increased motivation to take (or support) climate adaptation actions. The paper concludes that mindfulness has the potential to facilitate adaptation at all scales (through cognitive, managerial, structural, ontological, and epistemological change processes) and should, therefore, become a core element in climate and associated sustainability research. Finally, it sketches the conceptual trajectories of the mindfulness-adaptation nexus and presents a pioneering, comprehensive framework for 'mindful climate adaptation'.}, }
@article {pmid30147786, year = {2018}, author = {Jerneck, A}, title = {Taking gender seriously in climate change adaptation and sustainability science research: views from feminist debates and sub-Saharan small-scale agriculture.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {403-416}, doi = {10.1007/s11625-017-0464-y}, pmid = {30147786}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {People, places, and production contributing the least to climate change will suffer the most. This calls for adaptation as a key climate change response. But adaptation is surrounded by problems. Finance is uncertain and fragmented, mainstreaming into development is complicated, and technical solutions often overshadow existing social relations and institutions. From a gender perspective, and as a critical research initiative to support the building of sustainability science as an umbrella field, this article raises three pertinent questions on adaptation in the global South: what is its purpose, how can development inform it, and what institutions in terms of rights and responsibilities are core to it? Focusing on sub-Saharan small-scale agriculture, three main points emerge. Regarding the purpose, adaptation should be a transformative pathway out of poverty, ill-health, and food insecurity. Regarding development, adaptation can learn from how development theory, policy, and practice have addressed women, gender, and environment in varied settings and debates. Regarding core institutions, adaptation must address gender regimes that regulate access to, use of, and control over resources, especially those defining land distribution, labour division, and strategic decision-making power. To conclude, I propose gender-informed research questions for further inquiry.}, }
@article {pmid30147284, year = {2018}, author = {Woods, R and Coen, S and Fernández, A}, title = {Moral (dis)engagement with anthropogenic climate change in online comments on newspaper articles.}, journal = {Journal of community &amp; applied social psychology}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {244-257}, doi = {10.1002/casp.2355}, pmid = {30147284}, issn = {1052-9284}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is widely acknowledged to be morally significant, but little is known about everyday moralising around ACC. We addressed this gap via quantified thematic analysis of 300 online comments to British newspaper articles on ACC, drawing on Bandura's moral disengagement theory. Moral disengagement through denial of ACC was widespread. Other disengagement strategies, such as palliative comparison and diminishing agency, occurred less often. There was also some moral engagement, most often through assertions of the existence of ACC and/or its harmful effects. Moral disengagement was significantly more common in comments on right wing than left wing newspapers, whereas the opposite was true of moral engagement. Although Bandura's framework provided a useful starting point to make sense of ACC moralising, it did not capture moral concerns that extended beyond its &quot;harm/care&quot; remit. In particular, many &quot;denial&quot; comments included a &quot;dishonesty&quot; discourse, whereby ACC proponents were accused of deception for ulterior motives. To classify this discourse as moral disengagement obscures its engagement with a different set of moral issues around trust and honesty. We suggest that Bandura's theory represents one possible &quot;moral landscape&quot; around ACC and could be extended to encompass a broader range of moral concerns.}, }
@article {pmid30141151, year = {2018}, author = {Rymbai, D and Sheikh, FM}, title = {The insight of agricultural adaptation to climate change: a case of rice growers in Eastern Himalaya, India.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {10}, pages = {1833-1845}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-018-1586-3}, pmid = {30141151}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {Adaptation is crucial to curb down the negative impact of climate change particularly on agricultural sector. Hence, a study was conducted to identify the strategies adopted by the cereal growers in Eastern Himalaya region of India and determine the factors affecting them. A total 120 farmers were surveyed from Senapati district in Manipur and East Sikkim district in Sikkim. The widely adopted strategies were the change in transplanting time and change in transplanting as well as harvesting time, which were autonomous, traditional, and taken in response to the scarcity of water. Tobit model has identified that the area under rice cultivation, support received from Village Science Centre, and decline in food availability positively influenced the farmers to adapt to climate change. Multinomial logit model revealed that the female farmers, area under rice cultivation, and decline in rice productivity positively influenced the adoption of the strategies, whereas number of cattle owned, irrigated area, and support from Agricultural Department revealed the negative influence. To sustain farming in hill agriculture, the study recommends the integration of the farmers' knowledge along with scientific measures. Planned intervention, viz., in the form of construction of water harvesting structure, should be initiated by the State Government.}, }
@article {pmid30140980, year = {2018}, author = {Buse, CG}, title = {Why should public health agencies across Canada conduct climate change and health vulnerability assessments?.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17269/s41997-018-0118-6}, pmid = {30140980}, issn = {1920-7476}, support = {16654//Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly impacting population health outcomes related to several areas of public health service delivery across Canada, and internationally. As a result, public health practitioners are increasingly looking for guidance on how to begin planning for and adapting to a myriad of health-related climate impacts. This paper outlines several benefits for local or regional health agencies in conducting climate change and health vulnerability assessments (CCHVAs), based on the author's experience in conducting two of Canada's first comprehensive assessments. These benefits include, but are not limited to establishing suitable baseline understandings of past, present, and future climate-related health risks; providing guidance on mechanisms to reduce health inequities that may be exacerbated by climate change; generating credibility for health agencies to engage with climate change and pursue collaborative, intersectoral relationships with a range of likely and unlikely allies; identifying suitable, cost-effective adaptation options in the form of public health programming; and encouraging decision-makers to produce proactive policy actions to redress potential climate impacts on population health. Completing a CCHVA can directly optimize health agencies' and their allies' efforts to respond to the health imperatives associated with climate change, while also fueling adaptation options that yield co-benefits across a variety of sectors.}, }
@article {pmid30136323, year = {2018}, author = {Bhattacharyya, S and Dawson, DA and Hipperson, H and Ishtiaq, F}, title = {A diet rich in C3 plants reveals the sensitivity of an alpine mammal to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/mec.14842}, pmid = {30136323}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {//Pro Natura Foundation, Japan/ ; //Department of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science and Technology/ ; //Commonwealth Scholarship Commission/ ; //Wellcome Trust/DBT India Alliance/ ; }, abstract = {Plant-herbivore interactions provide critical insights into the mechanisms that govern the spatiotemporal distributions of organisms. These interactions are crucial to understanding the impacts of climate change, which are likely to have an effect on the population dynamics of alpine herbivores. The Royle's pika (Ochotona roylei, hereafter pika) is a lagomorph found in the western Himalaya and is dependent on alpine plants that are at risk from climate change. As the main prey of many carnivores in the region, the pika plays a crucial role in trophic interactions. We examined topographical features, plant genera presence and seasonal dynamics as drivers of the plant richness in the pika's diet across an elevational gradient (2,600-4,450 m). We identified 79 plant genera in the faecal pellets of pikas, of which 89% were forbs, >60% were endemic to the Himalaya, and 97.5% of the diet plant genera identified followed the C3 photosynthetic pathway. We found that, during the premonsoon season, the number of genera in the pika's diet decreased with increasing elevation. We demonstrate that a large area of talus supports greater plant diversity and, not surprisingly, results in higher species richness in the pika's diet. However, in talus habitat with deep crevices, pikas consumed fewer plant genera suggesting they may be foraging suboptimally due to predation risk. The continued increase in global temperature is expected to have an effect on the distribution dynamics of C3 plants and consequently influence pika diet and distribution, resulting in a significant negative cascading effect on the Himalayan ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid30133464, year = {2018}, author = {Weber, J and Wohland, J and Reyers, M and Moemken, J and Hoppe, C and Pinto, JG and Witthaut, D}, title = {Impact of climate change on backup energy and storage needs in wind-dominated power systems in Europe.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {e0201457}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0201457}, pmid = {30133464}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The high temporal variability of wind power generation represents a major challenge for the realization of a sustainable energy supply. Large backup and storage facilities are necessary to secure the supply in periods of low renewable generation, especially in countries with a high share of renewables. We show that strong climate change is likely to impede the system integration of intermittent wind energy. To this end, we analyze the temporal characteristics of wind power generation based on high-resolution climate projections for Europe and uncover a robust increase of backup energy and storage needs in most of Central, Northern and North-Western Europe. This effect can be traced back to an increase of the likelihood for long periods of low wind generation and an increase in the seasonal wind variability.}, }
@article {pmid30131478, year = {2018}, author = {Hayes, K and Poland, B}, title = {Addressing Mental Health in a Changing Climate: Incorporating Mental Health Indicators into Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15091806}, pmid = {30131478}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {A growing number of health authorities around the world are conducting climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments; however, few explore impacts and adaptations related to mental health. We argue for an expanded conceptualization of health that includes both the physiological and psychological aspects of climate change and health. Through a review of the global literature on mental health and climate change, this analytical review explores how mental health can be integrated into climate change and health vulnerability assessments and concludes with recommendations for integrating mental health within climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments.}, }
@article {pmid30131432, year = {2018}, author = {Day, JA and Fung, IY and Liu, W}, title = {Reply to Li et al: Late 20th-century drought in northern China reflects influence of global warming, aerosols, and natural variability.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {36}, pages = {E8329}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1812309115}, pmid = {30131432}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid30129483, year = {2018}, author = {Wingard, D and Trejo, J and Gudea, M and Goodman, S and Reznik, V}, title = {Faculty Equity, Diversity, Culture and Climate Change in Academic Medicine: A Longitudinal Study.}, journal = {Journal of the National Medical Association}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jnma.2018.05.004}, pmid = {30129483}, issn = {0027-9684}, abstract = {There is a national call for academic medicine to use evidence-based initiatives to improve its culture and climate. The authors report data-driven policy and programmatic interventions that were associated with increased faculty diversity, equity, respectful behavior and improved faculty climate, at UC San Diego Health Sciences.<br><br>METHODS: Based on demographic and survey data, interventions were designed to improve the climate between 2005 and 2015. Interventions included routine measuring and dissemination of demographic data, changes and dissemination of policy and procedures, and new and improved faculty development programming. Impact was measured using demographic data over time, salary equity studies, and school-wide climate surveys in 2005, 2011, and 2015. Specific outcomes included measures of diversity, salary equity, behavior, and climate.<br><br>RESULTS: Over the ten-year period, the proportion of women increased from 16% to 23% of tenure/tenure-track faculty and 31%-40% of all faculty. Underrepresented minority faculty increased from less than 1%-7% of tenure/tenure-track faculty and from 5% to 8% of all faculty. While women continued to be paid less than men, the adjusted difference dropped from 23% to 12%. Reports of inappropriate behavior by faculty decreased significantly, while satisfaction and knowledge about institutional mentoring and resources improved.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Multiple interventions including new faculty development programs, changes in policy, and measuring demographics/climate supported diverse faculty recruitment, enhanced a culture of respect and improved faculty morale. Cultural changes in policy, periodic faculty data collection with dissemination, and increased faculty development, improve the climate in academic medicine.}, }
@article {pmid30128861, year = {2018}, author = {Mendoza-Ponce, A and Corona-Núñez, RO and Galicia, L and Kraxner, F}, title = {Identifying hotspots of land use cover change under socioeconomic and climate change scenarios in Mexico.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-018-1085-0}, pmid = {30128861}, issn = {1654-7209}, abstract = {This study identifies the hotspots of land use cover change (LUCC) under two socioeconomic and climate change scenarios [business as usual (BAU) and a pessimistic scenario] at the national level for Mexico for three-time periods. Modelling suggests that by 2050 grassland and tropical evergreen forest will be the most endangered ecosystems, having lost 20-33% (BAU) or 43-46% (pessimistic scenario) of their extent in comparison to 1993. Agricultural expansion would be the major driver of LUCC, increasing from 24.4% of the country in 1993 to 30% (BAU) or 34% (pessimistic) in 2050. The most influential variables were distance from roads and human settlements, slope, aridity, and evapotranspiration. The hotspots of LUCC were influenced by environmental constraints and socioeconomic activities more than by climate change. These findings could be used to build proposals to reduce deforestation, including multiple feedbacks among urbanization, industrialization and food consumption.}, }
@article {pmid30127444, year = {2018}, author = {Ali, SA and Aadhar, S and Shah, HL and Mishra, V}, title = {Projected Increase in Hydropower Production in India under Climate Change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {12450}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-30489-4}, pmid = {30127444}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Hydropower is a valuable renewable energy resource in India, which can help in climate change mitigation and meet the increasing energy demands. However, the crucial role of climate change on hydropower production in India remains unexplored. Here using the observations and model simulations, we show that seven large hydropower projects experienced a significant (p-value < 0.05) warming and a decline in precipitation and streamflow during the observed period of 1951-2007. However, all the hydropower projects are projected to experience a warmer and wetter climate in the future. Multimodel ensemble mean annual average temperature (precipitation) is projected to rise up to 6.3 ± 1.6 °C (18 ± 14.6%) in the catchments upstream of the other reservoirs by the end of the 21st century under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. Due to the projected increase in precipitation, mean annual streamflow (up to +45%) and hydropower (up to +25%) production are projected to rise under the future climate. However, significant warming (6.25 ± 1.62 °C) is projected to result in a decline in streamflow and hydropower production in May- June for snow-dominated Nathpa Jhakri and Bhakra Nangal hydropower projects. Our results provide insights into the development and planning of hydropower projects in India under the current projected future climate.}, }
@article {pmid30125314, year = {2018}, author = {Middaugh, CR and Magoulick, DD}, title = {Forecasting effects of angler harvest and climate change on smallmouth bass abundance at the southern edge of their range.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {e0202737}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0202737}, pmid = {30125314}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change will affect stream systems in numerous ways over the coming century. Globally, streams are expected to experience changes in temperature and flow regime. Previous work has indicated that these changes will likely affect fish distributions, but little work has been conducted examining population level effects of climate change on warmwater fish at the warmest portion of their range. We model several potential climate change-related stressors and the resulting effects on smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu populations in the Buffalo National River, Arkansas, USA, located near the southern extent of smallmouth bass range. Smallmouth bass are a popular recreational fish in the region and angler harvest likely contributes substantially to annual mortality. We created a simulation model parameterized with data collected from the Buffalo National River to evaluate the relative importance of climate stressors and angler harvest on smallmouth bass populations. Our simulations suggest that increases in springtime temperature and reductions in river discharge during the spawning period could increase recruitment, resulting in increases in adult abundance (8% higher). However, when increased flooding and drought probabilities are considered, our model indicates the Buffalo National River could experience large reductions in adult smallmouth bass abundance (≥50% decline) and increased probability of extinction compared to present levels. Simulations showed that harvest reduction could be a viable strategy to reduce the negative effects of climate change, but that even with complete closure of harvest, smallmouth bass population levels would still be well below present abundance (46% lower than present). Efforts to reduce flooding and drought effects related to climate change in the Buffalo National River could help offset the predicted reduction in the smallmouth bass population.}, }
@article {pmid30121528, year = {2019}, author = {Gorguner, M and Kavvas, ML and Ishida, K}, title = {Assessing the impacts of future climate change on the hydroclimatology of the Gediz Basin in Turkey by using dynamically downscaled CMIP5 projections.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {648}, number = {}, pages = {481-499}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.167}, pmid = {30121528}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Gediz Basin is a Mediterranean watershed along the Aegean coast of Turkey, in which the most important economic activity is agriculture. Over the last few decades, this basin has been experiencing water-related problems such as water scarcity and competing use of water. This study assesses the impact of future climate change on the availability of water resources in the Gediz Basin during the 21st century by investigating the inflows into the major reservoir in the basin, Demirkopru Reservoir, which is the major source of irrigation water to the basin. The analysis in this study involves setting up a coupled hydro-climate model over the Gediz Basin by coupling the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the physically-based Watershed Environmental Hydrology (WEHY) model. First, the WRF model is used to reconstruct the historical climatic variables over the basin by dynamically downscaling the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. The calibrated and validated WRF model is then used to dynamically downscale eight different future climate projections over the Gediz Basin to a much finer resolution (6 km), which is more appropriate for the hydrologic modeling of the basin. These climate projections are from four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5, under two IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The outputs from the WRF model are then input into the WEHY model, which is calibrated and validated over the basin, to simulate the hydrological processes within the basin and to obtain the projected future inflows into the Demirkopru Reservoir. Results of the future analysis over the 21st century (2017-2100) are then compared to the historical values (1985-2012) to investigate the impacts of future climate change on the hydroclimatology of the Gediz Basin.}, }
@article {pmid30120891, year = {2018}, author = {Caminade, C and McIntyre, KM and Jones, AE}, title = {Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.13950}, pmid = {30120891}, issn = {1749-6632}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Climate directly impacts health through climatic extremes, air quality, sea-level rise, and multifaceted influences on food production systems and water resources. Climate also affects infectious diseases, which have played a significant role in human history, impacting the rise and fall of civilizations and facilitating the conquest of new territories. Our review highlights significant regional changes in vector and pathogen distribution reported in temperate, peri-Arctic, Arctic, and tropical highland regions during recent decades, changes that have been anticipated by scientists worldwide. Further future changes are likely if we fail to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Many key factors affect the spread and severity of human diseases, including mobility of people, animals, and goods; control measures in place; availability of effective drugs; quality of public health services; human behavior; and political stability and conflicts. With drug and insecticide resistance on the rise, significant funding and research efforts must to be maintained to continue the battle against existing and emerging diseases, particularly those that are vector borne.}, }
@article {pmid30115798, year = {2018}, author = {Bongaarts, J and O'Neill, BC}, title = {Global warming policy: Is population left out in the cold?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {361}, number = {6403}, pages = {650-652}, doi = {10.1126/science.aat8680}, pmid = {30115798}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Family Planning Policy ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Population Control ; *Population Growth ; }, }
@article {pmid30114866, year = {2018}, author = {Parise, I}, title = {A brief review of global climate change and the public health consequences.}, journal = {Australian journal of general practice}, volume = {47}, number = {7}, pages = {451-456}, pmid = {30114866}, issn = {2208-7958}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global climate change (GCC) will have an enormous impact on public health in the 21st century. Evidence clearly implicates the use of fossil fuels and the resultant anthropogenic greenhouse gases as the major source of GCC.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This paper seeks to examine briefly the association between fossil fuels and GCC, the consequent environmental changes and the predicted public health effects.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Complex and interrelated climate changes are forecast to present immense challenges, including increased morbidity and mortality, arising from heatwaves, extreme weather events, infectious and non-communicable diseases. The subsequent health effects, modulated by socioeconomic determinants, will be distributed inequitably primarily to vulnerable populations, largely in the tropics. A response to GCC is urgently required, involving strategies to mitigate and adapt to GCC. Not only will general practitioners be managing health conditions caused by GCC, but they are also well placed in the community to advocate for GCC mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid30113710, year = {2018}, author = {Peters, K}, title = {Disasters, climate change, and securitisation: the United Nations Security Council and the United Kingdom's security policy.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {42 Suppl 2}, number = {}, pages = {S196-S214}, doi = {10.1111/disa.12307}, pmid = {30113710}, issn = {1467-7717}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Public Policy ; *Security Measures ; United Kingdom ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {Since climate change was included on the United Nations Security Council's agenda in 2007, there has been much debate about whether or not it has been securitised. This paper starts from the premise that climate change has undergone a partial securitisation-that is, a gradual process wherein political choices are made to frame certain issues in particular ways. Climate change has been reframed from a purely developmental and environmental concern to one that impels foreign policy and security domains. This paper makes a novel contribution to disasters, climate change, and security studies by arguing that explicit and implicit links to natural hazard-related disasters have been employed as part of a gradual process of securitisation, or, more specifically, the partial securitisation of climate change. This is demonstrated by drawing on two cases: United Nations Security Council debates between 2007 and 2017; and the United Kingdom's security policy between 1997 and 2017.}, }
@article {pmid30112780, year = {2018}, author = {Diovisalvi, N and Odriozola, M and Garcia de Souza, J and Rojas Molina, F and Fontanarrosa, MS and Escaray, R and Bustingorry, J and Sanzano, P and Grosman, F and Zagarese, H}, title = {Species-specific phenological trends in shallow Pampean lakes' (Argentina) zooplankton driven by contemporary climate change in the Southern Hemisphere.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5137-5148}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14423}, pmid = {30112780}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {PAMPA2//CONICET/ ; PICT-2015-3539//ANPCyT/ ; }, abstract = {The relationship between the timing of recurrent biological events and seasonal climatic patterns (i.e., phenology) is a crucial ecological process. Changes in phenology are increasingly linked to global climate change. However, current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is subjected to substantial regional and seasonal biases. Most available evidence on climate-driven phenological changes comes from Northern Hemisphere (NH) ecosystems and typically involves increases in spring and summer temperatures, which translate into earlier onsets of spring population developments. In the Argentine Pampa region, warming has occurred at a much slower pace than in the NH, and trends are mostly restricted to increases in the minimum temperatures. We used zooplankton abundance data from Lake Chascomús (recorded every two weeks from 2005 to 2015) to evaluate potential changes in phenology. We adopted a sequential screening approach to identify taxa displaying phenological trends and evaluated whether such trends could be associated to observe long-term changes in water temperature. Two zooplankton species displayed significant later shifts in phenology metrics (end date of Brachionus havanaensis seasonal distribution: 31 day/decade, onset and end dates of Keratella americana seasonal distribution: 59 day/decade and 82 day/decade, respectively). The timing of the observed shift in B. havanaensis phenology was coincident with a warming trend in the May lake water temperature (4.7°C per decade). Analysis of abundance versus temperature patterns from six additional shallow Pampean lakes, and evaluation of previous experimental results, provided further evidence that the lake water warming trend in May was responsible for the delayed decline of B. havanaensis populations in autumn. This study is the first report of freshwater zooplankton phenology changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH).}, }
@article {pmid30111788, year = {2018}, author = {Frölicher, TL and Fischer, EM and Gruber, N}, title = {Marine heatwaves under global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7718}, pages = {360-364}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9}, pmid = {30111788}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persist for days to months1 and can extend up to thousands of kilometres2. Some of the recently observed marine heatwaves revealed the high vulnerability of marine ecosystems3-11 and fisheries12-14 to such extreme climate events. Yet our knowledge about past occurrences15 and the future progression of MHWs is very limited. Here we use satellite observations and a suite of Earth system model simulations to show that MHWs have already become longer-lasting and more frequent, extensive and intense in the past few decades, and that this trend will accelerate under further global warming. Between 1982 and 2016, we detect a doubling in the number of MHW days, and this number is projected to further increase on average by a factor of 16 for global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels and by a factor of 23 for global warming of 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, current national policies for the reduction of global carbon emissions are predicted to result in global warming of about 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century16, for which models project an average increase in the probability of MHWs by a factor of 41. At this level of warming, MHWs have an average spatial extent that is 21 times bigger than in preindustrial times, last on average 112 days and reach maximum sea surface temperature anomaly intensities of 2.5 degrees Celsius. The largest changes are projected to occur in the western tropical Pacific and Arctic oceans. Today, 87 per cent of MHWs are attributable to human-induced warming, with this ratio increasing to nearly 100 per cent under any global warming scenario exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Our results suggest that MHWs will become very frequent and extreme under global warming, probably pushing marine organisms and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, which could cause irreversible changes.}, }
@article {pmid30111485, year = {2018}, author = {Ricciardi, W}, title = {1st scientific symposium on Health and Climate Change, Italian National Institute of Health, 3-5th December 2018, Rome, Italy.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {643}, number = {}, pages = {A1}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.096}, pmid = {30111485}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid30109679, year = {2018}, author = {Sracek, O and Kříbek, B and Mihaljevič, M and Ettler, V and Vaněk, A and Penížek, V and Filip, J and Veselovský, F and Nyambe, I}, title = {The impact of wetland on neutral mine drainage from mining wastes at Luanshya in the Zambian Copperbelt in the framework of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {29}, pages = {28961-28972}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-2929-7}, pmid = {30109679}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The impact of a natural wetland (&quot;dambo&quot; in Zambia) on neutral mine drainage at Luanshya in the Zambian Copperbelt has been investigated during an intermediate discharge period (July) using a multi-method characterization of solid phase samples, sequential extraction analysis, X-ray diffraction, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy combined with water analyses, isotopic analyses, and geochemical modeling. In the wetland, the principal identified solid phases in sediments were carbonates, gypsum, and ferric oxyhydroxides. A significant portion of the ochres was present as insoluble hematite. Mine drainage pH values decrease, and log [Formula: see text] values increase after inflow of water into the wetland; dissolved and suspended concentrations of Fe, Mn, Cu, and Co also decrease. Based on speciation calculations, there is no precipitation of secondary Cu and Co minerals in the period of sampling, but it can occur later in dry period when the flow rate is reduced. Concentrations of sulfate decrease, and values of δ34S(SO4) in the wetland increase in parallel, suggesting sulfate reduction is occurring. In more advanced dry period, the discharge in mine drainage stream is probably much lower and water can reach supersaturation with respect to minerals such as gypsum, which has been found in sediments. Wetlands have a positive impact on mine drainage water quality due to the removal of metals by adsorption, co-precipitation, and filtration of colloids. However, there can also be a rebound of contamination by seepage inflow downstream from the wetland. Ongoing climate change with extreme hydrologic events may enhance differences between dry and rainy seasons with resulting faster mobilization of contaminants.}, }
@article {pmid30108575, year = {2018}, author = {de Souza, MS and Muelbert, JH and Costa, LDF and Klering, EV and Yunes, JS}, title = {Environmental Variability and Cyanobacterial Blooms in a Subtropical Coastal Lagoon: Searching for a Sign of Climate Change Effects.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1727}, doi = {10.3389/fmicb.2018.01727}, pmid = {30108575}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Cyanobacterial blooms in marine and freshwater environments may be favored by shifts in physical water column parameters due to warming under climate change. The Patos Lagoon (PL), a subtropical coastal environment in southern Brazil, is known for recurrent blooms of Microcystis aeruginosa complex (MAC). Here, we analyze the variability of these blooms and their relation to changes in wind direction and speed, rainfall and freshwater run-off from 2000 to 2017. Also, we discuss both longer time-series of air temperature and rainfall and a review of local studies with microcystins produced by these noxious species. Since the 1980s, MAC blooms were associated to negative anomalies in annual precipitation that occur during La Niña periods and, in the last years (2001-2014), accompanied by a trend in low river discharge. MAC blooms were conspicuous from December to March, i.e., austral summer, with massive patches seen in satellite images as for 2017. We suggest that low rainfall and run-off years under NE wind-driven hydrodynamics might accumulate MAC biomass in the west margin of the PL system. In contrast, a positive, long-term trend in precipitation (from 1950 to 2016; slope = 3.9868 mm/yr, p < 0.05) should imply in high river discharge and, consequently, advection of this biomass to the adjacent coastal region. Due to the proximity to urban areas, the blooms can represent recreational and economic hazards to the region.}, }
@article {pmid30108213, year = {2018}, author = {Sévellec, F and Drijfhout, SS}, title = {A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3024}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-05442-8}, pmid = {30108213}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {In a changing climate, there is an ever-increasing societal demand for accurate and reliable interannual predictions. Accurate and reliable interannual predictions of global temperatures are key for determining the regional climate change impacts that scale with global temperature, such as precipitation extremes, severe droughts, or intense hurricane activity, for instance. However, the chaotic nature of the climate system limits prediction accuracy on such timescales. Here we develop a novel method to predict global-mean surface air temperature and sea surface temperature, based on transfer operators, which allows, by-design, probabilistic forecasts. The prediction accuracy is equivalent to operational forecasts and its reliability is high. The post-1998 global warming hiatus is well predicted. For 2018-2022, the probabilistic forecast indicates a warmer than normal period, with respect to the forced trend. This will temporarily reinforce the long-term global warming trend. The coming warm period is associated with an increased likelihood of intense to extreme temperatures. The important numerical efficiency of the method (a few hundredths of a second on a laptop) opens the possibility for real-time probabilistic predictions carried out on personal mobile devices.}, }
@article {pmid30108186, year = {2018}, author = {Ornes, S}, title = {Core Concept: How does climate change influence extreme weather? Impact attribution research seeks answers.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {33}, pages = {8232-8235}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1811393115}, pmid = {30108186}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid30107770, year = {2018}, author = {Shorthouse, M and Stone, L}, title = {Inequity amplified: climate change, the Australian farmer, and mental health.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {209}, number = {4}, pages = {156-157}, pmid = {30107770}, issn = {1326-5377}, }
@article {pmid30107308, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, Z and Cui, C and Peng, S}, title = {Critical sectors and paths for climate change mitigation within supply chain networks.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {226}, number = {}, pages = {30-36}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.08.018}, pmid = {30107308}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Certain sectors and paths along supply chains play a critical role in climate change mitigation. We develope a consumption-based framework, which combines input-output analysis, a power-of-pull approach and structural path analysis, and applied it to supply chain networks derived from 2010 and 2012 Jing-Jin-Ji interregional input-output tables. The aim of this study is to identify (1) the key economic sectors for controlling carbon emissions and their changes, (2) the critical directions from a carbon-pulling sector to the emissions of key economic sectors, and (3) the paths with the largest carbon emissions flux in these critical directions. Our results show that the key sectors are from Hebei and Tianjin, more concentrated in Hebei. Most sectors have the largest pulling power over their own carbon emissions, and within-region connections dominated in the emission network, with a stronger tie between Beijing and the other two regions. Critical paths along carbon-pulling directions are located in tiers 0 and 1. Our framework can provide new insight into the creation of carbon emissions control policies.}, }
@article {pmid30103482, year = {2018}, author = {Bi, W and Weng, B and Yuan, Z and Ye, M and Zhang, C and Zhao, Y and Yan, D and Xu, T}, title = {Evolution Characteristics of Surface Water Quality Due to Climate Change and LUCC under Scenario Simulations: A Case Study in the Luanhe River Basin.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15081724}, pmid = {30103482}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {It is of great significance to study the effects and mechanisms of the key driving forces of surface water quality deterioration-climate change and LUCC (land use and land cover change). The Luanhe River Basin (LRB) in north-eastern China was examined for qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the responses of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads on different climate scenarios and LUCC scenarios. The results show that from 1963 to 2017, the TN and TP loads basically presented a negative correlation with the temperature change (except for winter), while showing a significant positive correlation with the precipitation change. The incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to temperature increase. From 2020 to 2050, the annual average loads of TN and TP were slightly lower than from 1963 to 2017. The contribution of rising temperature was more significant on nutrient loads. Also, the incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to the future climate change. Under LUCC scenarios, the TN and TP loads and pollution incidence increased correspondingly with the decrease of natural land. The evolution characteristics analysis can provide support for the effect and adaptation-strategies study of climate change and LUCC on surface water quality.}, }
@article {pmid30103037, year = {2019}, author = {Guo, Y and Li, X and Zhao, Z and Nawaz, Z}, title = {Predicting the impacts of climate change, soils and vegetation types on the geographic distribution of Polyporus umbellatus in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {648}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.465}, pmid = {30103037}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Polyporus umbellatus is a fungus that has been used medically as a diuretic for thousands of years in China. To evaluate the impacts of climatic change on the distribution of P. umbellatus, we selected the annual mean air temperature, isothermality, minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual temperature range, annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality and used observations from the 2000s and simulated values from two future periods (2041 to 2060 and 2061 to 2080) to build an ensemble model (EM); then, we developed a comprehensive habitat suitability model by integrating soil and vegetation conditions into the EM to assess the distribution of suitable P. umbellatus habitats across China in the 2000s and the two future periods. Our results show that annual precipitation and annual mean air temperature together largely determine the distribution of P. umbellatus and those suitable P. umbellatus habitats generally occur in areas with an optimal annual precipitation of approximately 1000 mm and an optimal annual mean air temperature of approximately 13 °C. In other words, P. umbellatus requires a humid and cool environment for growth. In addition, brown soils with a granular structure and low acidity are more suitable for P. umbellatus. Furthermore, we have observed that the distribution of P. umbellatus is usually associated with the presence of coniferous, mixed coniferous, and broad-leaved forests, suggesting that these vegetation types are suitable habitats for P. umbellatus. In the future, annual precipitation and annual mean air temperature will continue to increase, consequently increasing the availability of habitats suitable for P. umbellatus in northeastern and southwestern China but likely leading to a degradation of suitable P. umbellatus habitats in central China.}, }
@article {pmid30095156, year = {2018}, author = {Møller, AP and Erritzøe, J and van Dongen, S}, title = {Body size, developmental instability, and climate change.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {72}, number = {10}, pages = {2049-2056}, doi = {10.1111/evo.13570}, pmid = {30095156}, issn = {1558-5646}, abstract = {Development is often temperature-dependent. We hypothesized smaller size and larger asymmetry with increasing temperatures. However, we also predicted associations with asymmetry to differ among traits that differ in their degree of functional importance (especially the functional wings in migratory birds were predicted to be more canalized), timing of development (skeletal [femur, tarsus, and humerus] vs. feather [wing and tail traits]). We analyzed a large dataset of which we included species with at least 20 specimens resulting in 5533 asymmetry values in 1593 individuals from 66 species. There was a consistent significant decrease in size with temperature across all traits. Fluctuating asymmetry (FA) for wings and femur was on average lower, suggesting higher canalization, and it decreased with migration distance, however that was not the case for the other traits. FA increased with increasing temperature for wings, but not for the other characters, where the different responses of different characters to temperature were significant. Because there was no significant three-way interaction between temperature, migration distance, and character, the asymmetry-temperature response was similar in migratory and resident species. These findings imply that climate warming reduces size of all traits and decreases developmental instability of wings in birds.}, }
@article {pmid30093836, year = {2018}, author = {Groot, L and Swart, J}, title = {Climate change control: the Lindahl solution.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {757-782}, doi = {10.1007/s11027-017-9758-8}, pmid = {30093836}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate different burden sharing rules with respect to abatement of carbon emissions. We evaluate seven different rules both in terms of their redistributive impact and by the extent to which they realize the aim of optimal abatement. We show that the Lindahl solution, where the burden sharing rule of carbon abatement is determined by each region's willingness to pay, is to be preferred above the non-cooperative Nash outcome. Poor regions however would prefer the social planner outcome with a global permit market, because then the burden sharing rule has a secondary role of income redistribution by means of transfers from rich to poor, on top of its primary role of assigning abatement burdens. Based on these findings, we argue that in order to control global greenhouse gas emissions, the level of individual country emission abatement effort should be a function of their willingness to pay to curb climate change, rather than their historical emissions or ability to abate.}, }
@article {pmid30093833, year = {2018}, author = {Fellmann, T and Witzke, P and Weiss, F and Van Doorslaer, B and Drabik, D and Huck, I and Salputra, G and Jansson, T and Leip, A}, title = {Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {451-468}, doi = {10.1007/s11027-017-9743-2}, pmid = {30093833}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in particular, the livestock sector. Significant increases in imports and decreases in exports result in rather moderate domestic consumption impacts but induce production increases in non-EU countries that are associated with considerable emission leakage effects. The results underline four major challenges for the general integration of agriculture into national and global climate change mitigation policy frameworks and strategies, as they strengthen requests for (1) a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation obligations at national and global level and (2) the need for a wider consideration of technological mitigation options. The results also indicate that a globally effective reduction in agricultural emissions requires (3) multilateral commitments for agriculture to limit emission leakage and may have to (4) consider options that tackle the reduction in GHG emissions from the consumption side.}, }
@article {pmid30093831, year = {2018}, author = {Xu, Z and Smyth, CE and Lemprière, TC and Rampley, GJ and Kurz, WA}, title = {Climate change mitigation strategies in the forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications in British Columbia, Canada.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {257-290}, doi = {10.1007/s11027-016-9735-7}, pmid = {30093831}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Managing forests to increase carbon sequestration or reduce carbon emissions and using wood products and bioenergy to store carbon and substitute for other emission-intensive products and fossil fuel energy have been considered effective ways to tackle climate change in many countries and regions. The objective of this study is to examine the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector by developing and assessing potential mitigation strategies and portfolios with various goals in British Columbia (BC), Canada. From a systems perspective, mitigation potentials of five individual strategies and their combinations were examined with regionally differentiated implementations of changes. We also calculated cost curves for the strategies and explored socio-economic impacts using an input-output model. Our results showed a wide range of mitigation potentials and that both the magnitude and the timing of mitigation varied across strategies. The greatest mitigation potential was achieved by improving the harvest utilization, shifting the commodity mix to longer-lived wood products, and using harvest residues for bioenergy. The highest cumulative mitigation of 421 MtCO2e for BC was estimated when employing the strategy portfolio that maximized domestic mitigation during 2017-2050, and this would contribute 35% of BC's greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050 at less than $100/tCO2e and provide additional socio-economic benefits. This case study demonstrated the application of an integrated systems approach that tracks carbon stock changes and emissions in forest ecosystems, harvested wood products (HWPs), and the avoidance of emissions through the use of HWPs and is therefore applicable to other countries and regions.}, }
@article {pmid30093829, year = {2018}, author = {Klostermann, J and van de Sandt, K and Harley, M and Hildén, M and Leiter, T and van Minnen, J and Pieterse, N and van Bree, L}, title = {Towards a framework to assess, compare and develop monitoring and evaluation of climate change adaptation in Europe.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {187-209}, doi = {10.1007/s11027-015-9678-4}, pmid = {30093829}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Adaptation is increasingly recognised as essential when dealing with the adverse impacts of climate change on societies, economies and the environment. However, there is insufficient information about the effectiveness of adaption policies, measures and actions. For this reason, the establishment of monitoring programmes is considered to be necessary. Such programmes can contribute to knowledge, learning and data to support adaptation governance. In the European Union (EU), member states are encouraged to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). The NASs developed so far vary widely because of differing views, approaches and policies. A number of member states have progressed to monitoring and evaluating the implementation of their NAS. It is possible to identify key elements in these monitoring programmes that can inform the wider policy learning process. In this paper, four generic building blocks for creating a monitoring and evaluation programme are proposed: (1) definition of the system of interest, (2) selection of a set of indicators, (3) identification of the organisations responsible for monitoring and (4) definition of monitoring and evaluation procedures. The monitoring programmes for NAS in three member states-Finland, the UK and Germany-were analysed to show how these elements have been used in practice, taking into account their specific contexts. It is asserted that the provision of a common framework incorporating these elements will help other member states and organisations within them in setting up and improving their adaptation monitoring programmes.}, }
@article {pmid30093725, year = {2018}, author = {Junium, CK and Dickson, AJ and Uveges, BT}, title = {Perturbation to the nitrogen cycle during rapid Early Eocene global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3186}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-05486-w}, pmid = {30093725}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {1455258//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {The degree to which ocean deoxygenation will alter the function of marine communities remains unclear but may be best constrained by detailed study of intervals of rapid warming in the geologic past. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was an interval of rapid warming that was the result of increasing contents of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that had wide ranging effects on ecosystems globally. Here, we present stable nitrogen isotope data from the Eastern Peri-Tethys Ocean that record a significant transition in the nitrogen cycle. At the initiation of the PETM, the nitrogen isotopic composition of sediments decreased by ~6‰ to as low as -3.4‰, signaling reorganization of the marine nitrogen cycle. Warming, changes in ocean circulation, and deoxygenation caused a transition to nitrogen cycle to conditions that were most similar to those experienced during Oceanic Anoxic Events of the Mesozoic.}, }
@article {pmid30092826, year = {2018}, author = {Chalghaf, B and Chemkhi, J and Mayala, B and Harrabi, M and Benie, GB and Michael, E and Ben Salah, A}, title = {Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential distribution of Leishmania vectors in the Mediterranean basin: impact of climate change.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {461}, doi = {10.1186/s13071-018-3019-x}, pmid = {30092826}, issn = {1756-3305}, support = {grant number S-LMAQM-12-GR-1145//American Association for the Advancement of Science/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Due to climate change, the geographical distribution of sand flies during the last decades has shifted northward from latitudes below 45°N in southern Europe to latitudes just above 50○N. Recent studies show that some phlebotomine sand flies were recorded in several parts of Germany and Belgium. In central Europe, some autochthone leishmaniasis cases are being recorded in regions traditionally regarded as leishmaniasis-free. An important challenge is to predict the geographical distribution of leishmaniasis vectors under new climatic conditions. In this study, we attempted to predict the current distribution of six leishmaniasis vectors in the Mediterranean basin and forecast species' geographical shift under future climate scenarios using an ensemble ecological niche modeling approach. Species records were obtained from scientific surveys published in the research literature between 2006 and 2016. A series of climate metrics describing temperature and precipitation in the study area under two climatic scenarios were obtained from WorldClim database. A consensus model was derived from six varieties of modeling approaches (regression, machine learning and classification techniques) in order to ensure valid prediction of distribution of vectors under different climate scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: Model performance was generally high for the included species with a specificity (true negative rate) ranging from 81.03 to 96.52% (mean = 86.94%) and a sensitivity (true positive rate) ranging from 87.93 to 100% (mean = 96.98%). Our work evidenced the hypothesis of the widespread of Leishmania vectors under climate change scenarios. All of the studied species are prospected to gain new areas that are actually not suitable for vectors' survival. Phlebotomine sand flies are prospected to invade extra-Mediterranean regions, especially western and central Europe.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirmed the importance of environmental and climate factors on the distribution of leishmaniasis vectors and demonstrated the performance of ecological niche modeling in the prediction of the geographical spread of vector-borne diseases. Ecological niche modeling should be considered in the future as a valuable tool in addition to experimental laboratory studies for a better understanding of the biology of vector species.}, }
@article {pmid30087469, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Hunger's toll looks set to grow with tough action on climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7717}, pages = {144}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05837-z}, pmid = {30087469}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30083934, year = {2018}, author = {Godoy-Vitorino, F and Toledo-Hernandez, C}, title = {Reef-Building Corals as a Tool for Climate Change Research in the Genomics Era.}, journal = {Results and problems in cell differentiation}, volume = {65}, number = {}, pages = {529-546}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-92486-1_23}, pmid = {30083934}, issn = {0080-1844}, support = {P20 GM103475/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Coral reef ecosystems are among the most biodiverse habitats in the marine realm. They not only contribute with a plethora of ecosystem services, but they also are beneficial to humankind via nurturing marine fisheries and sustaining recreational activities. We will discuss the biology of coral reefs and their ecophysiology including the complex bacterial microbiota associated with them.}, }
@article {pmid30083425, year = {2018}, author = {Olabisi, LS and Azhar, GS and Abbott, M and Lempert, RJ}, title = {Participatory Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Public Health in Long Beach, California: Discussion from a Workshop Hosted by the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition.}, journal = {Rand health quarterly}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {4}, pmid = {30083425}, issn = {2162-8254}, abstract = {Participatory modeling aims to incorporate stakeholders into the process of developing models for the purpose of eliciting information, appropriately reflecting stakeholder interests and concerns, and improving stakeholder understanding, and acceptance of the analysis. Participatory modeling, using causal loop diagramming (CLD), was used to explore the impact of climate change on public health in Long Beach, California. CLD, commonly used in participatory modeling, provided useful information to serve as the basis for a quantitative system dynamics model to protect the citizens of Long Beach, and potentially other cities or regions affected by climate change. Diverse stakeholders constructed CLDs depicting the impacts of climate change on public health in Long Beach. This exercise aimed to (1) identify public health issues that might be caused or exacerbated by climate change; (2) examine the systemic connections between climate change and other drivers of public health/illness and mortality; and (3) identify feedback loops to gain an understanding of how climate change could impact public health over coming decades. Six groups of five stakeholders were tasked with depicting the impacts of climate change on public health. Each group designated a key health outcome of concern on a citywide scale, including critical drivers of the outcome at higher and lower scales if necessary (for example, state laws, or household-level decisions that affect health outcomes in the aggregate). Social, environmental, political, and economic variables were all considered. After the small group diagramming exercise, groups presented diagram results to other participants, and the discussion around the diagrams was recorded.}, }
@article {pmid30083173, year = {2018}, author = {Six, DL and Vergobbi, C and Cutter, M}, title = {Are Survivors Different? Genetic-Based Selection of Trees by Mountain Pine Beetle During a Climate Change-Driven Outbreak in a High-Elevation Pine Forest.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {993}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.00993}, pmid = {30083173}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Increased mortality of forest trees, driven directly or indirectly by climate change, is occurring around the world. In western North America, whitebark pine, a high elevation keystone species, and lodgepole pine, a widespread ecologically and economically important tree, have experienced extensive mortality in recent climate-driven outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle. However, even in stands experiencing high levels of mortality, some mature trees have survived. We hypothesized that the outbreak acted as a natural selection event, removing trees most susceptible to the beetle and least adapted to warmer drier conditions. If this was the case, genetic change would be expected at loci underlying beetle resistance. Given we did not know the basis for resistance, we used inter-simple sequence repeats to compare the genetic profiles of two sets of trees, survivors (mature, living trees) and general population (trees just under the diameter preferred by the beetles and expected to approximate the genetic structure of each tree species at the site without beetle selection). This method detects high levels of polymorphism and has often been able to detect patterns associated with phenotypic traits. For both whitebark and lodgepole pine, survivors and general population trees mostly segregated independently indicating a genetic basis for survivorship. Exceptions were a few general population trees that segregated with survivors in proportions roughly reflecting the proportion of survivors versus beetle-killed trees. Our results indicate that during outbreaks, beetle choice may result in strong selection for trees with greater resistance to attack. Our findings suggest that survivorship is genetically based and, thus, heritable. Therefore, retaining survivors after outbreaks to act as primary seed sources could act to promote adaptation. Further research will be needed to characterize the actual mechanism(s) of resistance.}, }
@article {pmid30082407, year = {2018}, author = {Ficklin, DL and Abatzoglou, JT and Robeson, SM and Null, SE and Knouft, JH}, title = {Natural and managed watersheds show similar responses to recent climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {34}, pages = {8553-8557}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1801026115}, pmid = {30082407}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Changes in climate are driving an intensification of the hydrologic cycle and leading to alterations of natural streamflow regimes. Human disturbances such as dams, land-cover change, and water diversions are thought to obscure climate signals in hydrologic systems. As a result, most studies of changing hydroclimatic conditions are limited to areas with natural streamflow. Here, we compare trends in observed streamflow from natural and human-modified watersheds in the United States and Canada for the 1981-2015 water years to evaluate whether comparable responses to climate change are present in both systems. We find that patterns and magnitudes of trends in median daily streamflow, daily streamflow variability, and daily extremes in human-modified watersheds are similar to those from nearby natural watersheds. Streamflow in both systems show negative trends throughout the southern and western United States and positive trends throughout the northeastern United States, the northern Great Plains, and southern prairies of Canada. The trends in both natural and human-modified watersheds are linked to local trends in precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, demonstrating that water management and land-cover change have not substantially altered the effects of climate change on human-modified watersheds compared with nearby natural watersheds.}, }
@article {pmid30082401, year = {2018}, author = {Iknayan, KJ and Beissinger, SR}, title = {Collapse of a desert bird community over the past century driven by climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {34}, pages = {8597-8602}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1805123115}, pmid = {30082401}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Desert Climate ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Climate change has caused deserts, already defined by climatic extremes, to warm and dry more rapidly than other ecoregions in the contiguous United States over the last 50 years. Desert birds persist near the edge of their physiological limits, and climate change could cause lethal dehydration and hyperthermia, leading to decline or extirpation of some species. We evaluated how desert birds have responded to climate and habitat change by resurveying historic sites throughout the Mojave Desert that were originally surveyed for avian diversity during the early 20th century by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues. We found strong evidence of an avian community in collapse. Sites lost on average 43% of their species, and occupancy probability declined significantly for 39 of 135 breeding birds. The common raven was the only native species to substantially increase across survey sites. Climate change, particularly decline in precipitation, was the most important driver of site-level persistence, while habitat change had a secondary influence. Habitat preference and diet were the two most important species traits associated with occupancy change. The presence of surface water reduced the loss of site-level richness, creating refugia. The collapse of the avian community over the past century may indicate a larger imbalance in the Mojave and provide an early warning of future ecosystem disintegration, given climate models unanimously predict an increasingly dry and hot future.}, }
@article {pmid30080880, year = {2018}, author = {Syphard, AD and Sheehan, T and Rustigian-Romsos, H and Ferschweiler, K}, title = {Mapping future fire probability under climate change: Does vegetation matter?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {e0201680}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0201680}, pmid = {30080880}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Understanding where and how fire patterns may change is critical for management and policy decision-making. To map future fire patterns, statistical correlative models are typically developed, which associate observed fire locations with recent climate maps, and are then applied to maps of future climate projections. A potential source of uncertainty is the common omission of static or dynamic vegetation as predictor variables. We therefore assessed the sensitivity of future fire projections to different combinations of vegetation maps used as explanatory variables in a statistically based fire modeling framework. We compared models without vegetation to models that incorporated static vegetation maps and that included output from a dynamic vegetation model that imposed three scenarios of fire and one scenario of land use change. We mapped projected future probability of all and large fires (> = 40 ha) under two climate scenarios in a heterogeneous study area spanning a large elevational gradient in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Results showed high model sensitivity to the treatment of vegetation as a predictor variable, particularly for models of large fire probability and for models accounting for wildfire effects on vegetation, which lowered future fire probability. Some scenarios resulted in opposite directional trends in the extent and probability of future fire, which could have serious implications for policy and management resource allocation. Model sensitivity resulted from high relative importance of vegetation variables in the baseline models and from large predicted changes in vegetation, particularly when simulating wildfire. Although statistical fire models often omit vegetation due to uncertainty, model sensitivity demonstrated here suggests a need to account for that uncertainty. Coupling statistical and processed based models may be a promising approach to reflect a more plausible range of scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30080626, year = {2018}, author = {Torres, N and Goicoechea, N and Zamarreño, AM and Carmen Antolín, M}, title = {Mycorrhizal symbiosis affects ABA metabolism during berry ripening in Vitis vinifera L. cv. Tempranillo grown under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {274}, number = {}, pages = {383-393}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2018.06.009}, pmid = {30080626}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {Abscisic Acid/*metabolism ; Anthocyanins/*metabolism ; Climate Change ; Mycorrhizae/*physiology ; Phenols/*metabolism ; Plant Growth Regulators/*metabolism ; Symbiosis ; Temperature ; Vitis/*microbiology/physiology ; Water/physiology ; }, abstract = {Arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis is a promising tool for improving the quality of grapes under changing environments. Therefore, the aim of this research was to determine if the ability of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) to enhance phenolic content (specifically, anthocyanins) in a climate change framework could be mediated by alterations in berry ABA metabolism during ripening. The study was carried out on fruit-bearing cuttings of cv. Tempranillo (CL-1048 and CL-1089) inoculated (+M) or not (-M) with AMF. Two experimental designs were implemented. In the first experiment +M and -M plants were subjected to two temperatures (24/14 °C or 28/18 °C (day/night)) from fruit set to berry maturity. In the second experiment, +M and -M plants were subjected to two temperatures (24/14 °C or 28/18 °C (day/night)) combined with two irrigation regimes (late water deficit (LD) and full irrigation (FI)). At 28/18 °C AMF contributed to an increase in berry anthocyanins and modulated ABA metabolism, leading to higher ABA-GE and 7'OH-ABA and lower phaseic acid (PA) in berries compared to -M plants. Under the most stressful scenario (LD and 28/18 °C), at harvest +M plants exhibited higher berry anthocyanins and 7´OH-ABA and lower PA and dihydrophaseic acid (DPA) levels than -M plants. These findings highlight the involvement of ABA metabolism into the ability of AMF to improve some traits involved in the quality of grapes under global warming scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30078955, year = {2018}, author = {Waldman, KB and Richardson, RB}, title = {Confronting Tradeoffs Between Agricultural Ecosystem Services and Adaptation to Climate Change in Mali.}, journal = {Ecological economics : the journal of the International Society for Ecological Economics}, volume = {150}, number = {}, pages = {184-193}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.04.003}, pmid = {30078955}, issn = {0921-8009}, abstract = {Changing climatic conditions present new challenges for agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa. Sorghum has proven to be an adaptable and resilient crop despite limited funding for crop development. Recent breeding efforts target hybrid and perennial technologies that may facilitate adaptation to climate change. Advantages of perennial crops over their annual counterparts include improved soil quality and water conservation and reduced inputs and labor requirements. In contrast, hybrid crops are often bred for improved grain yield and earlier maturation to avoid variable conditions. We use discrete choice experiments to model adoption of sorghum as a function of attributes that differ between these technologies and traditional varieties in Mali. Overall, the main perceived advantage of perennial crops is agricultural ecosystem services such as soil improvement, while adoption of hybrid crops is hampered by the inability to reuse seed. Women farmers are less concerned about higher labor requirements associated with perennial crops and the ability to reuse hybrids seeds than male farmers. Farmers prefer traditional sorghum to perennial sorghum and are indifferent between traditional and hybrid sorghum. These findings have important policy implications for understanding tradeoffs that are central to farmer decision making when it comes to breeding technologies for climate adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid30078910, year = {2018}, author = {León-Sánchez, L and Nicolás, E and Goberna, M and Prieto, I and Maestre, FT and Querejeta, JI}, title = {Poor plant performance under simulated climate change is linked to mycorrhizal responses in a semiarid shrubland.}, journal = {The Journal of ecology}, volume = {106}, number = {3}, pages = {960-976}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2745.12888}, pmid = {30078910}, issn = {0022-0477}, support = {242658//European Research Council/International ; 647038//European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Warmer and drier conditions associated with ongoing climate change will increase abiotic stress for plants and mycorrhizal fungi in drylands worldwide, thereby potentially reducing vegetation cover and productivity and increasing the risk of land degradation and desertification. Rhizosphere microbial interactions and feedbacks are critical processes that could either mitigate or aggravate the vulnerability of dryland vegetation to forecasted climate change.We conducted a four-year manipulative study in a semiarid shrubland in the Iberian Peninsula to assess the effects of warming (~2.5ºC; W), rainfall reduction (~30%; RR) and their combination (W+RR) on the performance of native shrubs (Helianthemum squamatum) and their associated mycorrhizal fungi.Warming (W and W+RR) decreased the net photosynthetic rates of H. squamatum shrubs by ~31% despite concurrent increases in stomatal conductance (~33%), leading to sharp decreases (~50%) in water use efficiency. Warming also advanced growth phenology, decreased leaf nitrogen and phosphorus contents per unit area, reduced shoot biomass production by ~36% and decreased survival during a dry year in both W and W+RR plants. Plants under RR showed more moderate decreases (~10-20%) in photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and shoot growth.Warming, RR and W+RR altered ectomycorrhizal fungal (EMF) community structure and drastically reduced the relative abundance of EMF sequences obtained by high-throughput sequencing, a response associated with decreases in the leaf nitrogen, phosphorus and dry matter contents of their host plants. In contrast to EMF, the community structure and relative sequence abundances of other non-mycorrhizal fungal guilds were not significantly affected by the climate manipulation treatments.Synthesis: Our findings highlight the vulnerability of both native plants and their symbiotic mycorrhizal fungi to climate warming and drying in semiarid shrublands, and point to the importance of a deeper understanding of plant-soil feedbacks to predict dryland vegetation responses to forecasted aridification. The interdependent responses of plants and ectomycorrhizal fungi to warming and rainfall reduction may lead to a detrimental feedback loop on vegetation productivity and nutrient pool size, which could amplify the adverse impacts of forecasted climate change on ecosystem functioning in EMF-dominated drylands.}, }
@article {pmid30078685, year = {2018}, author = {Liang, JL and Zhou, WH and Gao, SM and Yu, WP and Shu, WS and Li, JT}, title = {A simple slash-and-char system to mitigate climate change and environmental pollution.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {242}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {1904-1911}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2018.07.074}, pmid = {30078685}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Agriculture-based climate change mitigation may occur through enhancing the carbon sink or through reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from agricultural residue treatment, as open burning of agricultural residues produces millions of tons of GHGs and air pollutants annually worldwide. Charring slashed biomass, termed as slash-and-char, has been considered as a promising alternative to open burning in dealing with agricultural residues such as rice straw. Previous studies, however, focused on relatively sophisticated slash-and-char systems, which could not be practiced easily by smallholder farmers in developing countries. Here we introduce a simple slash-and-char system to mitigate the environmental problems associated with open burning of rice straw. This system could convert 30.7% of the initial carbon in rice straw into biochar, much higher than that retained in the ash generated by open burning (3.95%). It could also cut GHGs, particulate matters and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emissions by 26.9%, 99.0% and 99.4%, respectively. If open burning of rice straw was replaced by the slash-and-char, the annual emissions of GHGs, particulate matters and PAHs in China would decrease by at least 15.4 Tg, 1.51 Tg and 1.27 Gg, correspondingly. This decrease is nearly twice the size of China's estimated forest C sink (8.81 Tg).}, }
@article {pmid30077910, year = {2018}, author = {Salerno, F and Gaetano, V and Gianni, T}, title = {Urbanization and climate change impacts on surface water quality: Enhancing the resilience by reducing impervious surfaces.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {144}, number = {}, pages = {491-502}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2018.07.058}, pmid = {30077910}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {Climate change and urbanization are key factors affecting the future of water quality in urbanized catchments. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impact of climate change and urbanization on the water quality of receiving water bodies in the context of a highly urbanized watershed served by a combined sewer system (CSS) in northern Italy. The impact is determined by an integrated modelling study involving two years of field campaigns. The results obtained from the case study show that impervious urban surfaces and rainfall intensity are significant predictors of combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and consequently of the water quality of the receiving water body. Scenarios for the year 2100 demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanization is likely to lead to severe worsening of river water quality due to a doubling of the total phosphorus load from CSOs compared to the current load. Reduction in imperviousness was found to be a suitable strategy to adapt to these scenarios by limiting the construction of new impervious areas and decreasing the existing areas by only 15%. This information can be further utilized to develop future designs, which in turn should make these systems more resilient to future changes in climate and urbanization.}, }
@article {pmid30077852, year = {2019}, author = {Cai, D and Fraedrich, K and Guan, Y and Guo, S and Zhang, C and Zhu, X}, title = {Urbanization and climate change: Insights from eco-hydrological diagnostics.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {647}, number = {}, pages = {29-36}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.319}, pmid = {30077852}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {To quantify how urbanization induced long-term changes have altered the evolution of urban climate, a novel eco-hydrological diagnostic is introduced and applied globally, to a developing and a developed country (China and US-America). Urban areas are (i) geographically identified by remote sensing based nighttime light, (ii) physically embedded in state spaces spanned by suitable combinations of surface energy and water fluxes comprising the rainfall-runoff chain, and (iii) dynamically characterized by the time evolution of the surface fluxes at geographically fixed locations, analyzed as trajectories in state space, and interpreted by an attribution model separating anthropogenic from climate induced causes. The results describe the long term climatological settings of urban areas in a net radiation versus dryness diagram, while the attribution of change is diagnosed in a state space spanned by energy and water excess: (i) Cities in China are characterized by a bi-modal distribution separated by the boundary between water and energy-limited (northern and southern) regimes while US-American cities are assembling unimodally on this boundary, and globally the urbanized areas are also aligned along this boundary between water and energy-limited regimes. (ii) Attribution of eco-hydrological changes of urbanized regions to climate and human-induced causes shows also basic differences between the developing and developed country: urbanization in Chinese cities is characterized by a 'wet-gets-drier' and 'dry-gets-wetter' paradigm of the climate-induced contributions, due to which cities tend towards a unimodal state as it is observed for US-American urban areas. Finally, implications for large scale city planning are discussed in the outlook.}, }
@article {pmid30077344, year = {2018}, author = {Dell'Apa, A and Carney, K and Davenport, TM and Carle, MV}, title = {Potential medium-term impacts of climate change on tuna and billfish in the Gulf of Mexico: A qualitative framework for management and conservation.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.07.017}, pmid = {30077344}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {A systematic review of scientific papers on the potential impacts of climate-driven environmental changes on tuna and billfish in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) was conducted to identify the climate-driven pressures and their associated potential impacts on the reproductive success and survival of tuna and billfish, and which of those impacts may have more relevance for their management and conservation in the GOM by 2050. An Impact Screening Analysis (ISA) was developed to evaluate the potential climate impacts discovered in the literature synthesis by assessing each impact against four criteria, and assigning it a ranking based on likelihood of occurrence (High, Medium, or Low). Results show three types of climate-driven pressures within the High ranking: increased water temperature; changes in ocean circulation and eddy kinetic energy; and changes in storm and wind patterns. Our findings provide valuable information to advance our understanding of key climate-driven physico-chemical processes that can impact the biology of tuna and billfish in the GOM, and enhance conservation and management of these species.}, }
@article {pmid30075869, year = {2018}, author = {Lauria, V and Das, I and Hazra, S and Cazcarro, I and Arto, I and Kay, S and Ofori-Danson, P and Ahmed, M and Hossain, MAR and Barange, M and Fernandes, JA}, title = {Corrigendum to importance of fisheries for food security across three climate change vulnerable deltas Science of the total Environment 640-641 (2018) 1566-1577.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {1650}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.209}, pmid = {30075869}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid30075785, year = {2018}, author = {Gilfillan, D}, title = {Regional organisations supporting health sector responses to climate change in Southeast Asia.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {80}, doi = {10.1186/s12992-018-0388-z}, pmid = {30075785}, issn = {1744-8603}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The role played by regional organisations in climate change adaptation and health is growing in Southeast Asia, with the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment both supporting health and adaptation initiatives. There is, however, a lack of empirical research on the value that regional organisations add to national health-related adaptation. This qualitative research compares regional project and governance-based models of adaptation and health support in Southeast Asia, providing an analysis of strengths and weaknesses of each, as well as possibilities for improvement.<br><br>METHODS: An existing adaptation assessment framework was modified for this research, and used as a guide to gather and analyse data from academic and grey literature, policy documents and interviews in order to qualitatively assess two organisations and their different models of adaptation and health support.<br><br>RESULTS: This research found differing strengths in the approaches to climate change and health used by the Asian Development Bank and by the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment. The regional forum has vision, high levels of perceived legitimacy, and access to 'in-house' expertise in public health and climate change. Conversely, the Asian Development Bank has strengths in project management and access to significant financial resources to support work in climate change and health.<br><br>CONCLUSION: When regional organisations, such as the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment, have membership and mandate overlaps, their work will likely benefit from well designed, institutionalised and incentivised coordination mechanisms. Coordination can reduce redundancies as well as the administrative workload on partner government agencies. In the case-study examined, the Asian Development Bank's project management expertise complements the vision and high levels of perceived legitimacy of the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment, thus a coordinated approach could deliver improved adaptation and health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid30073071, year = {2018}, author = {Cottingham, A and Huang, P and Hipsey, MR and Hall, NG and Ashworth, E and Williams, J and Potter, IC}, title = {Growth, condition, and maturity schedules of an estuarine fish species change in estuaries following increased hypoxia due to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {14}, pages = {7111-7130}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4236}, pmid = {30073071}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Understanding challenges posed by climate change to estuaries and their faunas remains a high priority for managing these systems and their communities. Freshwater discharge into a range of estuary types in south-western Australia between 1990 and 2015 is shown to be related to rainfall. This largely accounts for decreases in discharge in this microtidal region being more pronounced on the west coast than south coast, where rainfall decline was less. Results of an oxygen-balance model imply that, as demonstrated by empirical data for the Swan River Estuary, declines in discharge into a range of estuary types would be accompanied by increases in the extent of hypoxia. In 2013-15, growth and body condition of the teleost Acanthopagrus butcheri varied markedly among three permanently open, one intermittently-open, one seasonally-closed and one normally-closed estuary, with average time taken by females to reach the minimum legal length (MLL) of 250 mm ranging from 3.6 to 17.7 years. It is proposed that, in a given restricted period, these inter-estuary variations in biological characteristics are related more to differences in factors, such as food resources and density, than to temperature and salinity. The biological characteristics of A. butcheri in the four estuaries, for which there are historical data, changed markedly between 1993-96 and 2013-15. Growth of both sexes, and also body condition in all but the normally-closed estuary, declined, with females taking between 1.7 and 2.9 times longer to attain the MLL. Irrespective of period, body condition, and growth are positively related. Age at maturity typically increased between periods, but length at maturity declined only in the estuary in which growth was greatest. The plasticity of the biological characteristics of A. butcheri, allied with confinement to its natal estuary and ability to tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions, makes this sparid and comparable species excellent subjects for assessing estuarine &quot;health.&quot;}, }
@article {pmid30073050, year = {2018}, author = {Berriozabal-Islas, C and Rodrigues, JFM and Ramírez-Bautista, A and Becerra-López, JL and Nieto-Montes de Oca, A}, title = {Effect of climate change in lizards of the genus Xenosaurus (Xenosauridae) based on projected changes in climatic suitability and climatic niche conservatism.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {14}, pages = {6860-6871}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4200}, pmid = {30073050}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Accelerated climate change represents a major threat to the health of the planet's biodiversity. Particularly, lizards of the genus Xenosaurus might be negatively affected by this phenomenon because several of its species have restricted distributions, low vagility, and preference for low temperatures. No study, however, has examined the climatic niche of the species of this genus and how their distribution might be influenced by different climate change scenarios. In this project, we used a maximum entropy approach to model the climatic niche of 10 species of the genus Xenosaurus under present and future suitable habitat, considering a climatic niche conservatism context. Therefore, we performed a similarity analysis of the climatic niche between each species of the genus Xenosaurus. Our results suggest that a substantial decrease in suitable habitat for all species will occur by 2070. Among the most affected species, X. tzacualtipantecus will not have suitable conditions according to its climatic niche requirements and X. phalaroanthereon will lose 85.75% of its current suitable area. On the other hand, we found low values of conservatism of the climatic niche among species. Given the limited capacity of dispersion and the habitat specificity of these lizards, it seems unlikely that fast changes would occur in the distribution of these species facing climate change. The low conservatism in climatic niche we found in Xenosaurus suggests that these species might have the capacity to adapt to the new environmental conditions originated by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30072614, year = {2018}, author = {Wells, CN and Tonkyn, D}, title = {Changes in the Geographic Distribution of the Diana Fritillary (Speyeria diana: Nymphalidae) under Forecasted Predictions of Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/insects9030094}, pmid = {30072614}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including butterfly species. Research has focused primarily on high latitude species in North America, with no known studies examining responses of taxa in the southeastern United States. The Diana fritillary (Speyeria diana) has experienced a recent range retraction in that region, disappearing from lowland sites and now persisting in two phylogenetically distinct high elevation populations. These findings are consistent with the predicted effects of a warming climate on numerous taxa, including other butterfly species in North America and Europe. We used ecological niche modeling to predict future changes to the distribution of S. diana under several climate models. To evaluate how climate change might influence the geographic distribution of this butterfly, we developed ecological niche models using Maxent. We used two global circulation models, the community climate system model (CCSM) and the model for interdisciplinary research on climate (MIROC), under low and high emissions scenarios to predict the future distribution of S. diana. Models were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics area under curve (AUC) test and the true skill statistics (TSS) (mean AUC = 0.91 ± 0.0028 SE, TSS = 0.87 ± 0.0032 SE for representative concentration pathway (RCP) = 4.5; and mean AUC = 0.87 ± 0.0031 SE, TSS = 0.84 ± 0.0032 SE for RCP = 8.5), which both indicate that the models we produced were significantly better than random (0.5). The four modeled climate scenarios resulted in an average loss of 91% of suitable habitat for S. diana by 2050. Populations in the southern Appalachian Mountains were predicted to suffer the most severe fragmentation and reduction in suitable habitat, threatening an important source of genetic diversity for the species. The geographic and genetic isolation of populations in the west suggest that those populations are equally as vulnerable to decline in the future, warranting ongoing conservation of those populations as well. Our results suggest that the Diana fritillary is under threat of decline by 2050 across its entire distribution from climate change, and is likely to be negatively affected by other human-induced factors as well.}, }
@article {pmid30065269, year = {2018}, author = {Kang, S and Eltahir, EAB}, title = {North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2894}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-05252-y}, pmid = {30065269}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {North China Plain is the heartland of modern China. This fertile plain has experienced vast expansion of irrigated agriculture which cools surface temperature and moistens surface air, but boosts integrated measures of temperature and humidity, and hence enhances intensity of heatwaves. Here, we project based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that climate change would add significantly to the anthropogenic effects of irrigation, increasing the risk from heatwaves in this region. Under the business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, North China Plain is likely to experience deadly heatwaves with wet-bulb temperature exceeding the threshold defining what Chinese farmers may tolerate while working outdoors. China is currently the largest contributor to the emissions of greenhouse gases, with potentially serious implications to its own population: continuation of the current pattern of global emissions may limit habitability in the most populous region, of the most populous country on Earth.}, }
@article {pmid30064741, year = {2018}, author = {Asproudi, A and Ferrandino, A and Bonello, F and Vaudano, E and Pollon, M and Petrozziello, M}, title = {Key norisoprenoid compounds in wines from early-harvested grapes in view of climate change.}, journal = {Food chemistry}, volume = {268}, number = {}, pages = {143-152}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodchem.2018.06.069}, pmid = {30064741}, issn = {1873-7072}, abstract = {In view of climate change, the scheduling of an early harvest may be an agronomic option to limit wine alcohol, provided that a satisfactory content of secondary metabolites can be ensured in grapes. To better understand the link between grape ripening, seasonal trend and wine aroma, the aromatic expression of Barbera and Pinot Noir wines produced with early harvested grapes was assessed. Attention was focused on C13 norisoprenoids during both alcoholic fermentation and after three months of storage. At the end of fermentation, the highest β-damascenone content was detected in wines obtained from less ripe grapes, the content subsequently increased significantly after three months of storage; however, the levels of β-ionone decreased significantly during the same period. The reduction of wine alcohol as a result of harvesting earlier, especially for Barbera, was associated with optimal aromatic levels as well as good technological parameters.}, }
@article {pmid30063714, year = {2018}, author = {Guo, Y and Gasparrini, A and Li, S and Sera, F and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M and Saldiva, PHN and Lavigne, E and Tawatsupa, B and Punnasiri, K and Overcenco, A and Correa, PM and Ortega, NV and Kan, H and Osorio, S and Jaakkola, JJK and Ryti, NRI and Goodman, PG and Zeka, A and Michelozzi, P and Scortichini, M and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y and Seposo, X and Kim, H and Tobias, A and Íñiguez, C and Forsberg, B and Åström, DO and Guo, YL and Chen, BY and Zanobetti, A and Schwartz, J and Dang, TN and Van, DD and Bell, ML and Armstrong, B and Ebi, KL and Tong, S}, title = {Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002629}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002629}, pmid = {30063714}, issn = {1549-1676}, support = {MR/M022625/1//Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30063708, year = {2018}, author = {Nissan, H and Conway, D}, title = {From advocacy to action: Projecting the health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002624}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002624}, pmid = {30063708}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {In a Perspective, Hannah Nissan and Declan Conway discuss the implications of uncertainty about projected impacts of climate change on health.}, }
@article {pmid30063707, year = {2018}, author = {Patz, JA and Thomson, MC}, title = {Climate change and health: Moving from theory to practice.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002628}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002628}, pmid = {30063707}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {In an Editorial discussing the Special Issue on Climate Change and Health, guest editors Jonathan Patz and Madeleine Thompson summarize key issues in the field and describe the significance of research studies included in the issue.}, }
@article {pmid30062166, year = {2017}, author = {Mann, DL}, title = {Are Academic Medical Centers Placing Translational Scientists on the Endangered Species List?: A Call for Climate Change to Preserve the Species.}, journal = {JACC. Basic to translational science}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {500-502}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacbts.2017.07.002}, pmid = {30062166}, issn = {2452-302X}, }
@article {pmid30061649, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Pinning extreme weather on climate change is now routine and reliable science.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7716}, pages = {5}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05839-x}, pmid = {30061649}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disasters ; *Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid30061648, year = {2018}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Droughts, heatwaves and floods: How to tell when climate change is to blame.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7716}, pages = {20-22}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05849-9}, pmid = {30061648}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30060608, year = {2018}, author = {Wei, J and Chen, H and Long, R}, title = {Determining Multi-Layer Factors That Drive the Carbon Capability of Urban Residents in Response to Climate Change: An Exploratory Qualitative Study in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15081607}, pmid = {30060608}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {The active promotion of carbon abatement to mitigate global climate change and protect the environment and public health has become the international consensus. The carbon capability is a key index for measuring the potential reduction of the carbon emissions by urban residents, and thus encouraging residents to exhibit normal and autonomous low-carbon behavior has become an important issue. In this study, based on grounded theory, data from in-depth interviews were encoded at three levels to identify the multi-layer factors that drive the carbon capability of urban residents, and we constructed a theoretical model for policy intervention. The results showed that individual factors, organizational factors, social factors, and social demographic variables were the main variables that affected the carbon capability, and utility experience perception was the main intermediary variable that affected the carbon capability. There was an obvious gap between utility experience perception and carbon capability. Low carbon selection cost was an internal situational variable that regulated the relationship between these factors, and the policy situation and technical situation were external situational variables. There were two-way effects on the carbon capability and utility experience perception. Thus, we explored these driving factors and the role of the carbon capability model. The results of this study may facilitate targeted policy thinking and the development of an implementation path for government in order to formulate effective guiding policies to enhance the carbon capability of urban residents.}, }
@article {pmid30058746, year = {2018}, author = {Valle, D and Albuquerque, P and Zhao, Q and Barberan, A and Fletcher, RJ}, title = {Extending the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model to presence/absence data: A case study on North American breeding birds and biogeographical shifts expected from climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5560-5572}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14412}, pmid = {30058746}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {1005163//US Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; 1458034//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Understanding how species composition varies across space and time is fundamental to ecology. While multiple methods having been created to characterize this variation through the identification of groups of species that tend to co-occur, most of these methods unfortunately are not able to represent gradual variation in species composition. The Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model is a mixed-membership method that can represent gradual changes in community structure by delineating overlapping groups of species, but its use has been limited because it requires abundance data and requires users to a priori set the number of groups. We substantially extend LDA to accommodate widely available presence/absence data and to simultaneously determine the optimal number of groups. Using simulated data, we show that this model is able to accurately determine the true number of groups, estimate the underlying parameters, and fit with the data. We illustrate this method with data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Overall, our model identified 18 main bird groups, revealing striking spatial patterns for each group, many of which were closely associated with temperature and precipitation gradients. Furthermore, by comparing the estimated proportion of each group for two time periods (1997-2002 and 2010-2015), our results indicate that nine (of 18) breeding bird groups exhibited an expansion northward and contraction southward of their ranges, revealing subtle but important community-level biodiversity changes at a continental scale that are consistent with those expected under climate change. Our proposed method is likely to find multiple uses in ecology, being a valuable addition to the toolkit of ecologists.}, }
@article {pmid30055491, year = {2019}, author = {Li, J and Dong, W and Oenema, O and Chen, T and Hu, C and Yuan, H and Zhao, L}, title = {Irrigation reduces the negative effect of global warming on winter wheat yield and greenhouse gas intensity.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {646}, number = {}, pages = {290-299}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.296}, pmid = {30055491}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global warming may exacerbate drought, decrease crop yield and affect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in semi-arid regions. However, the interactive effects of increases in temperature and water availability on winter wheat yield and GHG emissions in semi-arid climates are not well-understood. Here, we report on a two-year field experiment that examined the effects of a mean soil temperature increase of ~2 °C (at 5 cm depth) with and without additional irrigation on wheat yield and GHG emissions. Infrared heaters were placed above the crop canopy at a height of 1.8 m to simulate warming. Fluxes of CH4, CO2 and N2O were measured using closed static chamber technique once per week during the wheat growing seasons. Warming decreased wheat yield by 28% in the relatively dry year of 2015, while supplemental irrigation nullified the warming effect completely. Warming did not alter the wheat yield significantly in the relatively wet year of 2016, but supplemental irrigation with no warming decreased the wheat yield by 25%. Warming increased CO2 emissions by 28% and CH4 uptake by 24% and tended to decrease N2O emissions. Supplemental irrigation increased N2O emissions but had little effect on CO2 emissions and CH4 uptake. Evidently, warming and supplemental irrigation had interactive effects on wheat yield, GHG emissions and GHG emissions intensity. Precision irrigation appears to be a means of simultaneously increasing wheat yield and reducing GHG emissions under warming conditions in semi-arid areas.}, }
@article {pmid30055058, year = {2018}, author = {Albrich, K and Rammer, W and Thom, D and Seidl, R}, title = {Trade-offs between temporal stability and level of forest ecosystem services provisioning under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {28}, number = {7}, pages = {1884-1896}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1785}, pmid = {30055058}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {P 25503-B16//Austrian Science Fund/ ; Y895 B25//Austrian Science Fund/ ; 101198//Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management/ ; }, abstract = {The ability of forests to continuously provide ecosystem services (ES) is threatened by rapid changes in climate and disturbance regimes. Consequently, these changes present a considerable challenge for forest managers. Management of forests often focuses on maximizing the level of ES provisioning over extended time frames (i.e., rotation periods of more than 100 yr). However, temporal stability is also crucial for many ES, for example, in the context of a steady provisioning of resources to the industry, or the protection of human infrastructure against natural hazards. How temporal stability and the level of ES provisioning are related is of increasing interest, particularly since changing climate and disturbance regimes amplify temporal variability in forest ecosystems. In this simulation study, we investigated whether forest management can simultaneously achieve high levels and temporal stability of ES provisioning. Specifically, we quantified (1) trade-offs between ES stability and level of ES provisioning, and (2) the effect of tree species diversity on ES stability. Simulating a wide range of future climate scenarios and management strategies, we found a negative relationship between temporal stability and level of ES provisioning for timber production, carbon cycling, and site protection in a landscape in the Austrian Alps. Tree species diversity had a predominantly positive effect on ES stability. We conclude that attempts to maximize the level of ES provisioning may increase its temporal variability, and thus threaten the continuity of ES supply. Consequently, considerations of stability need to be more explicitly included in forest management planning under increasingly variable future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30054917, year = {2018}, author = {Knapp, AK and Carroll, CJW and Griffin-Nolan, RJ and Slette, IJ and Chaves, FA and Baur, LE and Felton, AJ and Gray, JE and Hoffman, AM and Lemoine, NP and Mao, W and Post, AK and Smith, MD}, title = {A reality check for climate change experiments: Do they reflect the real world?.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {99}, number = {10}, pages = {2145-2151}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2474}, pmid = {30054917}, issn = {0012-9658}, support = {//US National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Experiments are widely used in ecology, particularly for assessing global change impacts on ecosystem function. However, results from experiments often are inconsistent with observations made under natural conditions, suggesting the need for rigorous comparisons of experimental and observational studies. We conducted such a &quot;reality check&quot; for a grassland ecosystem by compiling results from nine independently conducted climate change experiments. Each experiment manipulated growing season precipitation (GSP) and measured responses in aboveground net primary production (ANPP). We compared results from experiments with long-term (33-yr) annual precipitation and ANPP records to ask if collectively (n = 44 experiment-years) experiments yielded estimates of ANPP, rain-use efficiency (RUE, grams per square meter ANPP per mm precipitation), and the relationship between GSP and ANPP comparable to observations. We found that mean ANPP and RUE from experiments did not deviate from observations. Experiments and observational data also yielded similar functional relationships between ANPP and GSP, but only within the range of historically observed GSP. Fewer experiments imposed extreme levels of GSP (outside the observed 33-yr record), but when these were included, they altered the GSP-ANPP relationship. This result underscores the need for more experiments imposing extreme precipitation levels to resolve how forecast changes in climate regimes will affect ecosystem function in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30054543, year = {2018}, author = {Zachary, DS}, title = {The Inverse Poisson Functional for forecasting response time to environmental events and global climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {11342}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-29680-4}, pmid = {30054543}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A series of Poisson distributions are fit to sets of global cost-of-impact data representing large-scale accidents and anthropogenic catastrophes. The fits are used to build a function representing data means and are designated the Inverse Poisson Functional. Climate and environmental data have been used to develop a cost-frequency population distribution and to estimate the expected time between events. On a global scale, we show that expected wait- or reaction- times can be estimated using the Poisson density function. The functional is generated, representing the locus of means (peaks) from the individual Poisson distributions from different impact costs. Past (ex-post) forecasts relate to a range of natural and anthropogenic disasters; future (ex-ante) forecast presents global CO2 emissions. This paper shows that a substantial reaction to global climate change (CO2 emissions extremum) will occur in 55 to 120 years (95% CI) with a model prediction of 80 years.}, }
@article {pmid30046067, year = {2018}, author = {Mitchard, ETA}, title = {The tropical forest carbon cycle and climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {559}, number = {7715}, pages = {527-534}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0300-2}, pmid = {30046067}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Tropical forests make an approximately neutral contribution to the global carbon cycle, with intact and recovering forests taking in as much carbon as is released through deforestation and degradation. In the near future, tropical forests are likely to become a carbon source, owing to continued forest loss and the effect of climate change on the ability of the remaining forests to capture excess atmospheric carbon dioxide. This will make it harder to limit global warming to below 2 °C. Encouragingly, recent international agreements commit to halting deforestation and degradation, but a lack of fundamental data for use in monitoring and model design makes policy action difficult.}, }
@article {pmid30045581, year = {2018}, author = {Pesce, M and Critto, A and Torresan, S and Giubilato, E and Santini, M and Zirino, A and Ouyang, W and Marcomini, A}, title = {Modelling climate change impacts on nutrients and primary production in coastal waters.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {628-629}, number = {}, pages = {919-937}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.131}, pmid = {30045581}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {There is high confidence that the anthropogenic increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) is causing modifications in the Earth's climate. Coastal waterbodies such as estuaries, bays and lagoons are among those most affected by the ongoing changes in climate. Being located at the land-sea interface, such waterbodies are subjected to the combined changes in the physical-chemical processes of atmosphere, upstream land and coastal waters. Particularly, climate change is expected to alter phytoplankton communities by changing their environmental drivers (especially climate-related), thus exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication events, such as hypoxia, harmful algal blooms (HAB) and loss of habitat. A better understanding of the links between climate-related drivers and phytoplankton is therefore necessary for projecting climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we present the case study of the Zero river basin in Italy, one of the main contributors of freshwater and nutrient to the salt-marsh Palude di Cona, a coastal waterbody belonging to the lagoon of Venice. To project the impacts of climate change on freshwater inputs, nutrient loadings and their effects on the phytoplankton community of the receiving waterbody, we formulated and applied an integrated modelling approach made of: climate simulations derived by coupling a General Circulation Model (GCM) and a Regional Climate Model (RCM) under alternative emission scenarios, the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the ecological model AQUATOX. Climate projections point out an increase of precipitations in the winter period and a decrease in the summer months, while temperature shows a significant increase over the whole year. Water discharge and nutrient loads simulated by SWAT show a tendency to increase (decrease) in the winter (summer) period. AQUATOX projects changes in the concentration of nutrients in the salt-marsh Palude di Cona, and variations in the biomass and species of the phytoplankton community.}, }
@article {pmid30045562, year = {2018}, author = {Aslam, AQ and Ahmad, I and Ahmad, SR and Hussain, Y and Hussain, MS and Shamshad, J and Zaidi, SJA}, title = {Integrated climate change risk assessment and evaluation of adaptation perspective in southern Punjab, Pakistan.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {628-629}, number = {}, pages = {1422-1436}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.129}, pmid = {30045562}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is posing stresses on water resources, food security, population, environment and economy of the southern Punjab. Integrated climate change risk assessment is carried out using assessed likelihood approach for defined mean, hot &amp; dry, central, warm &amp; wet climate models over selected time slices and adaptation plans. Climate models are based on the 5th, 50th &amp; 95th percentiles of PRECIS RCM projections of temperature &amp; precipitation under IPCC A2 &amp; A1B scenarios. Four time slices 2015, 2035, 2065 and 2085 are selected to assess the temporal climate change risk and to evaluate the performance of selected adaptations to reduce climate threats over considered assets. Results are presented in terms of risk indices and risk reduction units (RRUs). In first half of the 21st century, climate change risk will continue to increase from current level and is high (>10) in most of the selected time slices. Maximum ensembles of climate models, time slices and adaptation plans observe moderate (37-40 RRUs) and high (40-55 RRUs) risk class. Cumulative risk has been calculated through integration of sectoral sensitivity e.g. population density, land use, food security and multidimensional poverty to climate change risk class using AHP and overlaying in GIS environment. About 90% and 83% area of southern Punjab is falling in high cumulative risk. About 13% area, comprising Muzaffargarh and Rajanpur district is under very high cumulative risk. Water induced adaptations like development of water resources, dam &amp; flood control protection, temporary flood barriers and water resource acquisition are the preferred and suitable adaptations as these observed >100 RRUs for most of the ensembles. Assessing baseline vulnerability and sectoral sensitivity to climate stimuli are the hot spots requiring priority attention and firm decision making by disaster management authorities and communities residing in southern Punjab.}, }
@article {pmid30040814, year = {2018}, author = {Fagliano, JA and Diez Roux, AV}, title = {Climate change, urban health, and the promotion of health equity.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002621}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002621}, pmid = {30040814}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {Jerald Fagliano and Ana Diez Roux discuss the challenges of climate change in an urban environment, but also opportunities for healthier lifestyles and green spaces.}, }
@article {pmid30039684, year = {2018}, author = {Xu, MP and Ren, CJ and Zhang, W and Chen, ZX and Fu, SY and Liu, WC and Yang, GH and Han, XH}, title = {[Responses mechanism of C:N:P stoichiometry of soil microbial biomass and soil enzymes to climate change.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {2445-2454}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201807.041}, pmid = {30039684}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Enzymes/metabolism ; Nitrogen ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Microorganisms and soil enzymes are important drivers for biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding the role of microorganisms in the regulation of ecosystems and the response mechanisms of microbial biomass and soil enzymes to climate change are important topic in ecology. From the perspective of climatic factors, this review introduced the roles of microorganisms and soil enzymes in the carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles of terrestrial ecosystems based on the theory of ecological stoichiometry. Moreover, we synthesized the responses mechanisms of soil microbial and soil enzyme stoichiometry, i.e., changes of microbial metabolic rate, enzymatic acti-vity, microbial community structure, ecological stoichiometry of soil microbial biomass and soil enzymes, and nutrient use efficiency. Finally, we analyzed the current research inadequacies and proposed the scientific problems in this field, i.e., to comprehensively elucidate the response mecha-nism of soil microbes and soil enzymes to climate change; to examine the nutrient coupling mechanism of soil microbes and extracellular enzymes; and to explore the adaptive strategies of C:N:P stoichiometry of soil microbial biomass and soil enzymes to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30039645, year = {2018}, author = {Huang, C and He, HS and Liang, Y and Wu, ZW}, title = {[Effects of climate change, fire and harvest on carbon storage of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {2088-2100}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201807.036}, pmid = {30039645}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Carbon Sequestration ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Fires ; *Forests ; Taiga ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Climate change will increase the frequency of fire disturbances, which may further exa-cerbate carbon loss from boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, China. In this study, we coupled forest ecosystem and forest landscape models to simulate the dynamics of boreal forest carbon storage in the next 100 years. We quantified the effects of climate change, fire and harvest on carbon storage of boreal forests. The results showed that climate change would increase carbon storage of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, even if fire and harvest could partially offset such changes. Aboveground and soil organic carbon storage would increase by 9%-22% and 6%-9% in the next 100 years. In the short-term (0-20 years), the effects of climate change on carbon storage was stronger than fire. The effects of climate change on boreal forest carbon storage were less than fire and harvest in medium (30-50 years) and long-term (60-100 years). The variability of climate change and fire disturbance in the Great Xing'an Mountains caused high uncertainty of the future boreal forest carbon storage. The uncertainties of aboveground and soil organic carbon of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains were 12.4%-16.2% and 6.6%-10.4% in the next 100 years. The effects of seed dispersal, fire and harvest should be taken account for accurate estimation of carbon storage in Chinese boreal forests.}, }
@article {pmid30039486, year = {2018}, author = {Bashir, MR and Atiq, M and Mohsan, M}, title = {The increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) due to global climate change strengthens the plants and inhibits pathogenic infection.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {27}, pages = {26850-26851}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-2787-3}, pmid = {30039486}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid30037049, year = {2018}, author = {Kholoud, K and Denis, S and Lahouari, B and El Hidan, MA and Souad, B}, title = {Management of Leishmaniases in the Era of Climate Change in Morocco.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15071542}, pmid = {30037049}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {The proliferation of vector-borne diseases are predicted to increase in a changing climate and Leishmaniases, as a vector-borne diseases, are re-emerging diseases in several regions of the world. In Morocco, during the last decade, a sharp increase in cutaneous leishmaniases cases has been reported. Nevertheless, in Morocco, leishmaniases are a major public health problem, and little interest was given to climate change impacts on the distribution and spread of these diseases. As insect-borne diseases, the incidence and distribution of leishmaniases are influenced by environmental changes, but also by several socio-economic and cultural factors. From a biological point of view, environmental variables have effects on the survival of insect vectors and mammalian reservoirs, which, in turn, affects transmission. Here, we highlight the effects of climate change in Morocco and discuss its consequences on the epidemiology of leishmaniases to identify challenges and define targeted recommendations to fight this disease.}, }
@article {pmid30033146, year = {2018}, author = {Whitehead, P and Jin, L and Macadam, I and Janes, T and Sarkar, S and Rodda, HJE and Sinha, R and Nicholls, RJ}, title = {Corrigendum to &quot;Modelling Impacts of Climate Change and Socio-Economic Change on the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Meghna, Hooghly and Mahanadi River Systems in India and Bangladesh&quot; [Stoten 636 (2018) 1362-1372].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {1651-1652}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.180}, pmid = {30033146}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid30032080, year = {2018}, author = {Suttles, KM and Singh, NK and Vose, JM and Martin, KL and Emanuel, RE and Coulston, JW and Saia, SM and Crump, MT}, title = {Assessment of hydrologic vulnerability to urbanization and climate change in a rapidly changing watershed in the Southeast U.S.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {806-816}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.287}, pmid = {30032080}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study assessed the combined effects of increased urbanization and climate change on streamflow in the Yadkin-Pee Dee watershed (North Carolina, USA) and focused on the conversion from forest to urban land use, the primary land use transition occurring in the watershed. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate future (2050-2070) streamflow and baseflow for four combined climate and land use scenarios across the Yadkin-Pee Dee River watershed and three subwatersheds. The combined scenarios pair land use change and climate change scenarios together. Compared to the baseline, projected streamflow increased in three out of four combined scenarios and decreased in one combined scenario. Baseflow decreased in all combined scenarios, but decreases were largest in subwatersheds that lost the most forest. The effects of land use change and climate change were additive, amplifying the increases in runoff and decreases in baseflow. Streamflow was influenced more strongly by climate change than land use change. However, for baseflow the reverse was true; land use change tended to drive baseflow more than climate change. Land use change was also a stronger driver than climate in the most urban subwatershed. In the most extreme land use and climate projection the volume of the 1-day, 100 year flood nearly doubled at the watershed outlet. Our results underscore the importance of forests as hydrologic regulators buffering streamflow and baseflow from hydrologic extremes. Additionally, our results suggest that land managers and policy makers need to consider the implications of forest loss on streamflow and baseflow when planning for future urbanization and climate change adaptation options.}, }
@article {pmid30031364, year = {2018}, author = {Madsen, HM and Andersen, MM and Rygaard, M and Mikkelsen, PS}, title = {Definitions of event magnitudes, spatial scales, and goals for climate change adaptation and their importance for innovation and implementation.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {144}, number = {}, pages = {192-203}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2018.07.026}, pmid = {30031364}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {We examine how core professional and institutional actors in the innovation system conceptualize climate change adaptation in regards to pluvial flooding-and how this influences innovation. We do this through a qualitative case study in Copenhagen with interconnected research rounds, including 32 semi-structured interviews, to strengthen the interpretation and analysis of qualitative data. We find that the term &quot;climate change adaptation&quot; currently has no clearly agreed definition in Copenhagen; instead, different actors use different conceptualizations of climate change adaptation according to the characteristics of their specific innovation and implementation projects. However, there is convergence among actors towards a new cognitive paradigm, whereby economic goals and multifunctionality are linked with cost-benefit analyses for adapting to extreme rain events on a surface water catchment scale. Differences in definitions can lead to both successful innovation and to conflict, and thus they affect the city's capacity for change. Our empirical work suggests that climate change adaptation can be characterized according to three attributes: event magnitudes (everyday, design, and extreme), spatial scales (small/local, medium/urban, and large/national-international), and (a wide range of) goals, thereby resulting in different technology choices.}, }
@article {pmid30030873, year = {2018}, author = {Thomas, Y and Bacher, C}, title = {Assessing the sensitivity of bivalve populations to global warming using an individual-based modelling approach.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {4581-4597}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14402}, pmid = {30030873}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {SAD POPDEB n°9277//Région Bretagne/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change exposes benthic species populations in coastal ecosystems to a combination of different stressors (e.g., warming, acidification and eutrophication), threatening the sustainability of the ecological functions they provide. Thermal stress appears to be one of the strongest drivers impacting marine ecosystems, acting across a wide range of scales, from individual metabolic performances to geographic distribution of populations. Accounting for and integrating the response of species functional traits to thermal stress is therefore a necessary step in predicting how populations will respond to the warming expected in coming decades. Here, we developed an individual-based population model using a mechanistic formulation of metabolic processes within the framework of the dynamic energy budget theory. Through a large number of simulations, we assessed the sensitivity of population growth potential to thermal stress and food conditions based on a climate projection scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP8.5: no reduction of greenhouse gas emissions). We focused on three bivalve species with contrasting thermal tolerance ranges and distinct distribution ranges along 5,000 km of coastline in the NE Atlantic: the Pacific oyster (Magallana gigas), and two mussel species: Mytilus edulis and Mytilus galloprovincialis. Our results suggest substantial and contrasting changes within species depending on local temperature and food concentration. Reproductive phenology appeared to be a core process driving the responses of the populations, and these patterns were closely related to species thermal tolerances. The nonlinear relationship we found between individual life-history traits and response at the population level emphasizes the need to consider the interactions resulting from upscaling across different levels of biological organisation. These results underline the importance of a process-based understanding of benthic population response to seawater warming, which will be necessary for forward planning of resource management and strategies for conservation and adaptation to environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid30029120, year = {2018}, author = {Ghezzo, M and Pellizzato, M and De Pascalis, F and Silvestri, S and Umgiesser, G}, title = {Natural resources and climate change: A study of the potential impact on Manila clam in the Venice lagoon.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {419-430}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.060}, pmid = {30029120}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {A crucial aspect in climate change is to understand how an ecosystem will adapt under different environmental conditions and how it will influence the ecological resources and the connected human activities. In this study, a numerical model reproduces the growth dynamics, dispersion and settlement of clam's larvae in the Venice lagoon. On the basis of the last IPCC scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100, the model simulates the changes in larval settlement, showing how the geographical distribution and, consequently, the nursery area changes over time. Our results indicate that climate change will modify, not only the timing of the settlements (from spring-summer to winter autumn) and the spatial distribution of nursery areas (from central to southern lagoon), but also the absolute quantity of settled larvae in the lagoon. This can strongly affect aquaculture in terms of availability of seed and farming practice. Given that these changes are due to the variations in temperature and circulation, similar processes are likely to happen in other transitional environments all over the world affecting the global aquaculture resources. In this regard, the tool we developed could support local policymakers in the knowledge-based planning and sustainable management of clam aquaculture in vulnerable environments.}, }
@article {pmid30026213, year = {2018}, author = {Randel, WJ}, title = {The seasonal fingerprint of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {361}, number = {6399}, pages = {227-228}, doi = {10.1126/science.aat9097}, pmid = {30026213}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid30025064, year = {2018}, author = {Robertson, AD and Zhang, Y and Sherrod, LA and Rosenzweig, ST and Ma, L and Ahuja, L and Schipanski, ME}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Yields and Soil Carbon in Row Crop Dryland Agriculture.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {684-694}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.08.0309}, pmid = {30025064}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Environmental Monitoring ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Dryland agroecosystems could be a sizable sink for atmospheric carbon (C) due to their spatial extent and level of degradation, providing climate change mitigation. We examined productivity and soil C dynamics under two climate change scenarios (moderate warming, representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5; and high warming, RCP 8.5), using long-term experimental data and the DayCent process-based model for three sites with varying climates and soil conditions in the US High Plains. Each site included a no-till cropping intensity gradient introduced in 1985, with treatments ranging from wheat-fallow (L.) to continuous annual cropping and perennial grass. Simulations were extended to 2100 using data from 16 global circulation models to estimate uncertainty. Simulated yields declined for all crops (up to 50% for wheat), with small changes after 2050 under RCP 4.5 and continued losses to 2100 under RCP 8.5. Of the cropped systems, continuous cropping had the highest average productivity and soil C sequestration rates (78.1 kg C ha yr from 2015 to 2045 under RCP 4.5). Any increase in soil C for cropped rotations was realized by 2050, but grassland treatments increased soil C (up to 69%) through 2100, even under RCP 8.5. Our simulations indicate that reduced frequency of summer fallow can both increase annualized yields and store more soil C. As evapotranspiration is likely to increase, reducing fallow periods without live vegetation from dryland agricultural rotations may enhance the resilience of these systems to climate change while also increasing soil C storage and mitigating carbon dioxide emissions.}, }
@article {pmid30025061, year = {2018}, author = {Nash, PR and Gollany, HT and Sainju, UM}, title = {CQESTR-Simulated Response of Soil Organic Carbon to Management, Yield, and Climate Change in the Northern Great Plains Region.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {674-683}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.07.0273}, pmid = {30025061}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Traditional dryland crop management includes fallow and intensive tillage, which have reduced soil organic carbon (SOC) over the past century, raising concerns regarding soil health and sustainability. The objectives of this study were: (i) to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, to simulate SOC dynamics from 2006 to 2011 and to predict relative SOC trends in cropping sequences that included barley (L.), pea (L.), and fallow under conventional tillage or no-till, and N fertilization rates through 2045; and (ii) to identify best dryland cropping systems to increase SOC and reduce CO emissions under projected climate change in eastern Montana. Cropping sequences were conventional-till barley-fallow (CTB-F), no-till barley-fallow (NTB-F), no-till continuous barley (NTCB), and no-till barley-pea (NTB-P), with 0 and 80 kg N ha applied to barley. Under current crop production, climatic conditions, and averaged N rates, SOC at the 0- to 10-cm depth was predicted to increase by 1.74, 1.79, 2.96, and 4.57 Mg C ha by 2045 for CTB-F, NTB-F, NTB-P, and NTCB, respectively. When projected climate change and the current positive US barley yield trend were accounted for in the simulations, SOC accretion was projected to increase by 0.69 to 0.92 Mg C ha and 0.41 to 0.47 Mg C ha, respectively. According to the model simulations, adoption of NT, elimination of fallow years, and N fertilizer management will likely have the greatest impact on SOC stocks in the top soil as of 2045 in the Northern Great Plains.}, }
@article {pmid30025056, year = {2018}, author = {Wienhold, BJ and Jin, VL and Schmer, MR and Varvel, GE}, title = {Soil Carbon Response to Projected Climate Change in the US Western Corn Belt.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {704-709}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.09.0379}, pmid = {30025056}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Soil/chemistry ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {The western US Corn Belt is projected to experience major changes in growing conditions due to climate change over the next 50 to 100 yr. Projected changes include increases in growing season length, number of high temperature stress days and warm nights, and precipitation, with more heavy rainfall events. The impact these changes will have on soil organic carbon (SOC) needs to be estimated and adaptive changes in management developed to sustain soil health and system services. The process-based model CQESTR was used to model changes in SOC stocks (0-30 cm) of continuous corn (L.) and a corn-soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation under disk, chisel, ridge, and no-tillage using projected growing season conditions for the next 50 yr. Input for the model was based on management and harvest records from a long-term tillage study (1986-2015) in eastern Nebraska, and model output was validated using measured changes in SOC from 1999 to 2011 in the study. The validated model was used to estimate changes in SOC over 17 yr under climatic conditions projected for 2065 under two scenarios: (i) crop yields increasing at the observed rate from 1971 to 2016 or (ii) crop yields reduced due to negative effects of increasing temperature. CQESTR estimates of SOC agreed well with measured SOC (= 0.70, < 0.0001). Validated model simulated changes in SOC under projected climate change differed among the three soil depths (0-7.5, 7.5-15, and 15-30 cm). Summed over the 0- to 30-cm depth, there were significant three-way interactions of year × rotation × yield (= 0.014) and year × tillage × yield (< 0.001). As yield increased, SOC increased under no-tillage continuous corn but was unchanged under no-tillage corn-soybean and ridge tillage regardless of cropping system. Under chisel and disk tillage, SOC declined regardless of cropping system. With declining yields SOC decreased regardless of tillage or cropping system. These results highlight the interaction between genetics and management in maintaining yield trends and soil C.}, }
@article {pmid30025049, year = {2018}, author = {Gollany, HT and Polumsky, RW}, title = {Simulating Soil Organic Carbon Responses to Cropping Intensity, Tillage, and Climate Change in Pacific Northwest Dryland.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {625-634}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.09.0374}, pmid = {30025049}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Northwestern United States ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Managing dryland cropping systems to increase soil organic C (SOC) under changing climate is challenging after decades of winter wheat (L.)-fallow and moldboard plow tillage (W-F/MP). The objective was to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, and SOC data collected in 2004, 2008, and 2012 to predict the best management to increase SOC under changing climate in four cropping systems, which included continuous wheat under no tillage (W-W/NT), wheat and sorghum × sudangrass [ (L.) Moench. × L.] under no tillage, wheat-fallow under sweep tillage, and W-F/MP. Since future yields and climate are uncertain, 20 scenarios for each cropping system were simulated with four climate projections and five crop yield scenarios (current crop yields, and 10 or 30% greater or lesser yields). Measured and simulated SOC were significantly (< 0.0001) correlated (= 0.98) at all soil depths. Predicted SOC changes ranged from -12.03 to 2.56 Mg C ha in the 1-m soil depth for W-F/MP and W-W/NT, respectively, during the 2012 to 2052 predictive period. Only W-W/NT sequestered SOC at a rate of 0.06 Mg C ha yr under current crop yields and climate. Under climate change and yield scenarios, W-W/NT lost SOC except with a 30% wheat yield increase for 40 yr. Predicted SOC increases in W-W/NT were 0.71, 1.16, and 0.88 Mg C ha under the Oregon Climate Assessment Reports for low emissions and high emissions and the Regional Climate Model version 3 with boundary conditions from the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model, respectively, with 30% yield increases. Continuous no-till cropping would increase SOC and improve soil health and resiliency to lessen the impact of extreme weather.}, }
@article {pmid30025045, year = {2018}, author = {Nash, PR and Gollany, HT and Liebig, MA and Halvorson, JJ and Archer, DW and Tanaka, DL}, title = {Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Responses to Crop Rotation, Tillage, and Climate Change in North Dakota.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {654-662}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.04.0161}, pmid = {30025045}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Crop Production ; Crops, Agricultural ; North Dakota ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Understanding how agricultural management and climate change affect soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is particularly important for dryland agriculture regions that have been losing SOC over time due to fallow and tillage practices, and it can lead to development of agricultural practice(s) that reduce the impact of climate change on crop production. The objectives of this study were: (i) to simulate SOC dynamics in the top 30 cm of soil during a 20-yr (1993-2012) field study using CQESTR, a process-based C model; (ii) to predict the impact of changes in management, crop production, and climate change from 2013 to 2032; and (iii) to identify the best dryland cropping systems to maintain or increase SOC stocks under projected climate change in central North Dakota. Intensifying crop rotations was predicted to have a greater impact on SOC stocks than tillage (minimum tillage [MT], no-till [NT]) during 2013 to 2032, as SOC was highly correlated to biomass input (= 0.91, = 0.00053). Converting from a MT spring wheat (SW, L.)-fallow rotation to a NT continuous SW rotation increased annualized biomass additions by 2.77 Mg ha (82%) and SOC by 0.22 Mg C ha yr. Under the assumption that crop production will stay at the 1993 to 2012 average, climate change is predicted to have a minor impact on SOC (approximately -6.5%) relative to crop rotation management. The CQESTR model predicted that the addition of another SW or rye (L.) crop would have a greater effect on SOC stocks (0- to 30-cm depth) than conversion from MT to NT or climate change from 2013 to 2032.}, }
@article {pmid30025039, year = {2018}, author = {Jebari, A and Del Prado, A and Pardo, G and Rodríguez Martín, JA and Álvaro-Fuentes, J}, title = {Modeling Regional Effects of Climate Change on Soil Organic Carbon in Spain.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {644-653}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.07.0294}, pmid = {30025039}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Soil/*chemistry ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Soil organic C (SOC) stock assessments at the regional scale under climate change scenarios are of paramount importance in implementing soil management practices to mitigate climate change. In this study, we estimated the changes in SOC sequestration under climate change conditions in agricultural land in Spain using the RothC model at the regional level. Four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios (CGCM2-A2, CGCM2-B2, ECHAM4-A2, and ECHAM4-B2) were used to simulate SOC changes during the 2010 to 2100 period across a total surface area of 2.33 × 10 km. Although RothC predicted a general increase in SOC stocks by 2100 under all climate change scenarios, these SOC sequestration rates were smaller than those under baseline conditions. Moreover, this SOC response differed among climate change scenarios, and in some situations, some losses of SOC occurred. The greatest losses of C stocks were found mainly in the ECHAM4 (highest temperature rise and precipitation drop) scenarios and for rainfed and certain woody crops (lower C inputs). Under climate change conditions, management practices including no-tillage for rainfed crops and vegetation cover for woody crops were predicted to double and quadruple C sequestration rates, reaching values of 0.47 and 0.35 Mg C ha yr, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid30025032, year = {2018}, author = {Nash, PR and Gollany, HT and Novak, JM and Bauer, PJ and Hunt, PG and Karlen, DL}, title = {Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Response to Tillage, Yield, and Climate Change in the Southeastern Coastal Plains.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {663-673}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.05.0190}, pmid = {30025032}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Intensive tillage, low-residue crops, and a warm, humid climate have contributed to soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the southeastern Coastal Plains region. Conservation (CnT) tillage and winter cover cropping are current management practices to rebuild SOC; however, there is sparse long-term field data showing how these management practices perform under variable climate conditions. The objectives of this study were to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, to simulate SOC in the top 15 cm of a loamy sand soil (fine-loamy, kaolinitic, thermic Typic Kandiudult) under conventional (CvT) or CnT tillage to elucidate the impact of projected climate change and crop yields on SOC relative to management and recommend the best agriculture management to increase SOC. Conservation tillage was predicted to increase SOC by 0.10 to 0.64 Mg C ha for six of eight crop rotations compared with CvT by 2033. The addition of a winter crop [rye (L.) or winter wheat (L.)] to a corn (L.)-cotton (L.) or corn-soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation increased SOC by 1.47 to 2.55 Mg C ha. A continued increase in crop yields following historical trends could increase SOC by 0.28 Mg C ha, whereas climate change is unlikely to have a significant impact on SOC except in the corn-cotton or corn-soybean rotations where SOC decreased up to 0.15 Mg C ha by 2033. The adoption of CnT and cover crop management with high-residue-producing corn will likely increase SOC accretion in loamy sand soils. Simulation results indicate that soil C saturation may be reached in high-residue rotations, and increasing SOC deeper in the soil profile will be required for long-term SOC accretion beyond 2030.}, }
@article {pmid30025031, year = {2018}, author = {Cavigelli, MA and Nash, PR and Gollany, HT and Rasmann, C and Polumsky, RW and Le, AN and Conklin, AE}, title = {Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Changes in Maryland Are Affected by Tillage, Climate Change, and Crop Yield.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {588-595}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.07.0291}, pmid = {30025031}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Maryland ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on soil organic C (SOC) stocks in no-till (NT) and conventionally tilled (CT) agricultural systems is poorly understood. The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of projected climate change on SOC to 50-cm soil depth for grain cropping systems in the southern Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. We used SOC and other data from the long-term Farming Systems Project in Beltsville, MD, and CQESTR, a process-based soil C model, to predict the impact of cropping systems and climate (air temperature and precipitation) on SOC for a 40-yr period (2012-2052). Since future crop yields are uncertain, we simulated five scenarios with differing yield levels (crop yields from 1996-2014, and at 10 or 30% greater or lesser than these yields). Without change in climate or crop yields (baseline conditions) CQESTR predicted an increase in SOC of 0.014 and 0.021 Mg ha yr in CT and NT, respectively. Predicted climate change alone resulted in an SOC increase of only 0.002 Mg ha yr in NT and a decrease of 0.017 Mg ha yr in CT. Crop yield declines of 10 and 30% led to SOC decreases between 2 and 8% compared with 2012 levels. Increasing crop yield by 10 and 30% was sufficient to raise SOC 2 and 7%, respectively, above the climate-only scenario under both CT and NT between 2012 and 2052. Results indicate that under these simulated conditions, the negative impact of climate change on SOC levels could be mitigated by crop yield increases.}, }
@article {pmid30024871, year = {2018}, author = {Blum, AJ and Hotez, PJ}, title = {Global &quot;worming&quot;: Climate change and its projected general impact on human helminth infections.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {e0006370}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0006370}, pmid = {30024871}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Helminthiasis/epidemiology/*parasitology ; Helminths/*physiology ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid30024475, year = {2018}, author = {Wellbery, C and Sheffield, P and Timmireddy, K and Sarfaty, M and Teherani, A and Fallar, R}, title = {It's Time for Medical Schools to Introduce Climate Change into Their Curricula.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/ACM.0000000000002368}, pmid = {30024475}, issn = {1938-808X}, support = {K23 ES024127/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; L40 ES017745/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES023515/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change presents unprecedented health risks and demands universal attention to address them. Multiple intergovernmental organizations, health associations, and health professions schools have recognized the specific importance of preparing physicians to address the health impacts of climate change. However, medical school curricula have not kept pace with this urgent need for targeted training.The authors describe the rationale for inclusion of climate change in medical education and some potential pathways for incorporating this broad topic into physician training and continuing medical education. Reasons include the magnitude and reach of this transboundary issue, the shared responsibility of the U.S. health care sector as a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, and the disproportionate effects of climate change on vulnerable populations. The integration of climate-change-related topics with training of essential physician skills in a rapidly changing environment is feasible because many health topic areas already exist in medical school curricula in which climate change education can be incorporated. To fully integrate the health topics, underlying concepts, and the needed clinical and system-wide translations, content could be included across the scope of training and into continuing medical education and faculty development. The authors provide examples of such an approach to curricular inclusion.}, }
@article {pmid30021321, year = {2018}, author = {Lauria, V and Das, I and Hazra, S and Cazcarro, I and Arto, I and Kay, S and Ofori-Danson, P and Ahmed, M and Hossain, MAR and Barange, M and Fernandes, JA}, title = {Importance of fisheries for food security across three climate change vulnerable deltas.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {640-641}, number = {}, pages = {1566-1577}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.011}, pmid = {30021321}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Deltas are home to a large and growing proportion of the world's population, often living in conditions of extreme poverty. Deltaic ecosystems are ecologically significant as they support high biodiversity and a variety of fisheries, however these coastal environments are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (Bangladesh/India), the Mahanadi (India), and the Volta (Ghana) are among the most important and populous delta regions in the world and they are all considered at risk of food insecurity and climate change. The fisheries sector is vital for populations that live in the three deltas, as a source of animal protein (in Bangladesh and Ghana around 50-60% of animal protein is supplied by fish while in India this is about 12%) through subsistence fishing, as a source of employment and for the wider economy. The aquaculture sector shows a rapid growth in Bangladesh and India while in Ghana this is just starting to expand. The main exported species differ across countries with Ghana and India dominated by marine fish species, whereas Bangladesh exports shrimps and prawns. Fisheries play a more important part in the economy of Bangladesh and Ghana than for India, both men and women work in fisheries, with a higher proportion of women in the Volta then in the Asian deltas. Economic and integrated modelling using future scenarios suggest that changes in temperature and primary production could reduce fish productivity and fisheries income especially in the Volta and Bangladesh deltas, however these losses could be mitigated by reducing overfishing and improving management. The analysis provided in this paper highlights the importance of applying plans for fisheries management at regional level. Minimizing the impacts of climate change while increasing marine ecosystems resilience must be a priority for scientists and governments before these have dramatic impacts on millions of people's lives.}, }
@article {pmid30021320, year = {2018}, author = {Lipczynska-Kochany, E}, title = {Effect of climate change on humic substances and associated impacts on the quality of surface water and groundwater: A review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {640-641}, number = {}, pages = {1548-1565}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.376}, pmid = {30021320}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Humic substances (HS), a highly transformed part of non-living natural organic matter (NOM), comprise up to 70% of the soil organic matter (SOM), 50-80% of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in surface water, and 25% of DOM in groundwater. They considerably contribute to climate change (CC) by generating greenhouse gases (GHG). On the other hand, CC affects HS, their structure and reactivity. HS important role in global warming has been recognized and extensively studied. However, much less attention has been paid so far to effects on the freshwater quality, which may result from the climate induced impact on HS, and HS interactions with contaminants in soil, surface water and groundwater. It is expected that an increased temperature and enhanced biodegradation of SOM will lead to an increase in the production of DOM, while the flooding and runoff will export it from soil to rivers, lakes, and groundwater. Microbial growth will be stimulated and biodegradation of pollutants in water can be enhanced. However, there may be also negative effects, including an inhibition of solar disinfection in brown lakes. The CC induced desorption from soil and sediments, as well as re-mobilization of metals and organic pollutants are anticipated. In-situ treatment of surface water and groundwater may be affected. Quality of the source freshwater is expected to deteriorate and drinking water production may become more expensive. Many of the possible effects of CC described in this article have yet to be explored and understood. Enormous potential for interesting, multidisciplinary studies in the important research areas has been presented.}, }
@article {pmid30015117, year = {2018}, author = {Hesselschwerdt, J and Wantzen, KM}, title = {Global warming may lower thermal barriers against invasive species in freshwater ecosystems - A study from Lake Constance.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {44-50}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.078}, pmid = {30015117}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {European freshwater ecosystems are increasingly invaded by exotic animal and plant species. Apart from increased connectivity between previously separated watersheds, the increasing temperature of the hydrosystems favors the spread of exotic species. The freshwater fauna of Central Europe is still shaped by the cold-adapted animal assemblages resulting from the last glaciation. It is less diverse, and the species are putatively less performant competitors, compared to the warm-adapted, species-rich fauna of the Ponto-Caspian realm, from which many current aquatic invaders are coming. Our study analyses potential mechanisms explaining the coexistence between one of the most impacting aquatic invaders of the past decades, the 'killer shrimp' Dikerogammarus villosus and the previously dominating amphipod Gammarus roeselii in Lake Constance, using laboratory predation experiments and field surveys. Our results indicate two key drivers for coexistence: low winter temperatures and the substrate structure of the alga Chara sp. At temperatures below 6 °C, the predation pressure on G. roeselii was strongly reduced; G. roeselii can therefore disperse throughout the littoral in winter, avoiding predation by D. villosus. Artificial heating of a section of the lake shore, however, resulted in local extinction of G. roeselii by D. villosus. The macroalga Chara sp. completely inhibited predation by D. villosus on G. roeselii. Climate change scenarios indicate that global warming might destroy this thermal refuge during winter until 2085. For the survival of G. roeselii it will then be crucial, which part of the Chara population will maintain epigeic plant parts during winter. The complex interplay between thermal and physical refuges for native species in the context of climate change and changing trophic status of freshwater systems, as disentangled by our study, shows that ecosystem management and restoration strategies need to better consider multiple stressors (and their rather complex mitigation strategies).}, }
@article {pmid30014037, year = {2018}, author = {Riddell, EA and Odom, JP and Damm, JD and Sears, MW}, title = {Plasticity reveals hidden resistance to extinction under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {7}, pages = {eaar5471}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aar5471}, pmid = {30014037}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Extinction rates are predicted to rise exponentially under climate warming, but many of these predictions ignore physiological and behavioral plasticity that might buffer species from extinction. We evaluated the potential for physiological acclimatization and behavioral avoidance of poor climatic conditions to lower extinction risk under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity, a region currently predicted to lose most of the salamander habitat due to warming. Our approach integrated experimental physiology and behavior into a mechanistic species distribution model to predict extinction risk based on an individual's capacity to maintain energy balance with and without plasticity. We assessed the sensitivity of extinction risk to body size, behavioral strategies, limitations on energy intake, and physiological acclimatization of water loss and metabolic rate. The field and laboratory experiments indicated that salamanders readily acclimatize water loss rates and metabolic rates in ways that could maintain positive energy balance. Projections with plasticity reduced extinction risk by 72% under climate warming, especially in the core of their range. Further analyses revealed that juveniles might experience the greatest physiological stress under climate warming, but we identified specific physiological adaptations or plastic responses that could minimize the lethal physiological stress imposed on juveniles. We conclude that incorporating plasticity fundamentally alters ecological predictions under climate change by reducing extinction risk in the hotspot of salamander diversity.}, }
@article {pmid30013852, year = {2018}, author = {Riquelme, C and Estay, SA and López, R and Pastore, H and Soto-Gamboa, M and Corti, P}, title = {Protected areas' effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e5222}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.5222}, pmid = {30013852}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background: Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range.<br><br>Methods: To estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)-RCP4.5 and RCP6.0.<br><br>Results: Based on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km2 of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86-60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57-64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57-34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79-31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios.<br><br>Discussion: Modeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid30013133, year = {2018}, author = {Metcalfe, DB and Hermans, TDG and Ahlstrand, J and Becker, M and Berggren, M and Björk, RG and Björkman, MP and Blok, D and Chaudhary, N and Chisholm, C and Classen, AT and Hasselquist, NJ and Jonsson, M and Kristensen, JA and Kumordzi, BB and Lee, H and Mayor, JR and Prevéy, J and Pantazatou, K and Rousk, J and Sponseller, RA and Sundqvist, MK and Tang, J and Uddling, J and Wallin, G and Zhang, W and Ahlström, A and Tenenbaum, DE and Abdi, AM}, title = {Patchy field sampling biases understanding of climate change impacts across the Arctic.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {1443-1448}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0612-5}, pmid = {30013133}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {Effective societal responses to rapid climate change in the Arctic rely on an accurate representation of region-specific ecosystem properties and processes. However, this is limited by the scarcity and patchy distribution of field measurements. Here, we use a comprehensive, geo-referenced database of primary field measurements in 1,840 published studies across the Arctic to identify statistically significant spatial biases in field sampling and study citation across this globally important region. We find that 31% of all study citations are derived from sites located within 50 km of just two research sites: Toolik Lake in the USA and Abisko in Sweden. Furthermore, relatively colder, more rapidly warming and sparsely vegetated sites are under-sampled and under-recognized in terms of citations, particularly among microbiology-related studies. The poorly sampled and cited areas, mainly in the Canadian high-Arctic archipelago and the Arctic coastline of Russia, constitute a large fraction of the Arctic ice-free land area. Our results suggest that the current pattern of sampling and citation may bias the scientific consensuses that underpin attempts to accurately predict and effectively mitigate climate change in the region. Further work is required to increase both the quality and quantity of sampling, and incorporate existing literature from poorly cited areas to generate a more representative picture of Arctic climate change and its environmental impacts.}, }
@article {pmid30012226, year = {2018}, author = {Cuthbertson, J and Archer, F and Robertson, A}, title = {Special Report: WADEM Climate Change Position Statement.}, journal = {Prehospital and disaster medicine}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {428-431}, doi = {10.1017/S1049023X18000535}, pmid = {30012226}, issn = {1945-1938}, abstract = {The World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WADEM; Madison, Wisconsin USA) is a multi-disciplinary professional association whose mission is the global improvement of prehospital and emergency health care, public health, and disaster health and preparedness. In April 2017, the biennial general meeting of the World Congress for Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WCDEM) endorsed the WADEM Climate Change Position Statement, which was subsequently published in Prehospital and Disaster Medicine in July 2017. This special report examines literature used and reviews the process of development of this Position Statement as a product of WADEM.Cuthbertson J, Archer F, Robertson A. Special report: WADEM climate change position statement. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(4):428-431.}, }
@article {pmid30008520, year = {2018}, author = {Damert, M and Baumgartner, RJ}, title = {Intra-Sectoral Differences in Climate Change Strategies: Evidence from the Global Automotive Industry.}, journal = {Business strategy and the environment}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {265-281}, doi = {10.1002/bse.1968}, pmid = {30008520}, issn = {1099-0836}, abstract = {Companies are increasingly challenged for action on climate change. Most studies on business responses to climate change focus on cross-sector comparisons and neglect intra-sectoral dynamics. This paper investigates the influence of supply chain position and regional affiliation on climate change strategies within a particular industry. We present a generic framework integrating both market and non-market responses to climate change. We argue that climate change strategies comprise several corporate activities that have different foci of interaction and four main objectives: governance, innovation, compensation and legitimation. Using a global sample of 116 automotive companies, we conduct a cluster analysis and identify four types of strategy. We find that the sophistication of automobile manufacturers' strategies significantly differs from that of suppliers. Regional affiliation and firm size prove to be determinants of the strategy type pursued. We cannot find evidence for a relationship between financial performance and a company's strategic approach to climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Business Strategy and the Environment published by ERP Environment and John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd.}, }
@article {pmid30007904, year = {2018}, author = {Lake, IR and Jones, NR and Agnew, M and Goodess, CM and Giorgi, F and Hamaoui-Laguel, L and Semenov, MA and Solmon, F and Storkey, J and Vautard, R and Epstein, MM}, title = {Erratum: &quot;Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe&quot;.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {126}, number = {7}, pages = {079002}, doi = {10.1289/EHP2073}, pmid = {30007904}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1289/EHP173.].}, }
@article {pmid30006980, year = {2018}, author = {Chefaoui, RM and Duarte, CM and Serrão, EA}, title = {Dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {4919-4928}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14401}, pmid = {30006980}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {SFRH/BPD/85040/2012//Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia/ ; //Pew Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well-documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst-case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia.}, }
@article {pmid30006620, year = {2018}, author = {Zhu, K and Zhang, J and Niu, S and Chu, C and Luo, Y}, title = {Limits to growth of forest biomass carbon sink under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2709}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-05132-5}, pmid = {30006620}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {Faculty Research Grant//University of California, Santa Cruz (UC Santa Cruz)/ ; 31625006//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Widely recognized as a significant carbon sink, North American forests have experienced a history of recovery and are facing an uncertain future. This growing carbon sink is dictated by recovery from land-use change, with growth trajectory modified by environmental change. To address both processes, we compiled a forest inventory dataset from North America to quantify aboveground biomass growth with stand age across forest types and climate gradients. Here we show, the biomass grows from 90 Mg ha-1 (2000-2016) to 105 Mg ha-1 (2020 s), 128 Mg ha-1 (2050 s), and 146 Mg ha-1 (2080 s) under climate change scenarios with no further disturbances. Climate change modifies the forest recovery trajectory to some extent, but the overall growth is limited, showing signs of biomass saturation. The future (2080s) biomass will only sequester at most 22% more carbon than the current level. Given such a strong sink has limited growth potential, our ground-based analysis suggests policy changes to sustain the carbon sink.}, }
@article {pmid30004323, year = {2018}, author = {Chersich, MF and Scorgie, F and Rees, H and Wright, CY}, title = {How climate change can fuel listeriosis outbreaks in South Africa.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {108}, number = {6}, pages = {453-454}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2018.v108i6.13274}, pmid = {30004323}, issn = {0256-9574}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Disease Outbreaks/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Food Microbiology ; Foodborne Diseases/epidemiology/microbiology ; Humans ; Listeriosis/*epidemiology/*transmission ; South Africa ; *Water Microbiology ; }, }
@article {pmid30003633, year = {2018}, author = {Champion, C and Hobday, AJ and Tracey, SR and Pecl, GT}, title = {Rapid shifts in distribution and high-latitude persistence of oceanographic habitat revealed using citizen science data from a climate change hotspot.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5440-5453}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14398}, pmid = {30003633}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Australian Society for Fish Biology's Michael Hall Student Innovation Award/ ; //The Holsworth Wildlife Research Endowment-Equity Trustees Charitable Foundation/ ; //CSIRO-University of Tasmania Joint Quantitative Marine Science Program/ ; //Australian Research Council Future Fellowship/ ; }, abstract = {The environmental effects of climate change are predicted to cause distribution shifts in many marine taxa, yet data are often difficult to collect. Quantifying and monitoring species' suitable environmental habitats is a pragmatic approach for assessing changes in species distributions but is underdeveloped for quantifying climate change induced range shifts in marine systems. Specifically, habitat predictions present opportunities for quantifying spatiotemporal distribution changes while accounting for sources of natural climate variation. Here we demonstrate the utility of a marine-based habitat model parameterized using citizen science data and remotely sensed environmental covariates for quantifying shifts in oceanographic habitat suitability over 22 years for a coastal-pelagic fish species in a climate change hotspot. Our analyses account for the effects of natural intra- and interannual climate variability to reveal rapid poleward shifts in core (94.4 km/decade) and poleward edge (108.8 km/decade) oceanographic habitats. Temporal persistence of suitable oceanographic habitat at high latitudes also increased by approximately 3 months over the study period. Our approach demonstrates how marine citizen science data can be used to quantify range shifts, but necessitates shifting focus from species distributions directly, to the distribution of species' environmental habitat preferences.}, }
@article {pmid29996456, year = {2018}, author = {Reino, L and Triviño, M and Beja, P and Araújo, MB and Figueira, R and Segurado, P}, title = {Modelling landscape constraints on farmland bird species range shifts under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {625}, number = {}, pages = {1596-1605}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.007}, pmid = {29996456}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Several studies estimating the effects of global environmental change on biodiversity are focused on climate change. Yet, non-climatic factors such as changes in land cover can also be of paramount importance. This may be particularly important for habitat specialists associated with human-dominated landscapes, where land cover and climate changes may be largely decoupled. Here, we tested this idea by modelling the influence of climate, landscape composition and pattern, on the predicted future (2021-2050) distributions of 21 farmland bird species in the Iberian Peninsula, using boosted regression trees and 10-km resolution presence/absence data. We also evaluated whether habitat specialist species were more affected by landscape factors than generalist species. Overall, this study showed that the contribution of current landscape composition and pattern to the performance of species distribution models (SDMs) was relatively low. However, SDMs built using either climate or climate plus landscape variables yielded very different predictions of future species range shifts and, hence, of the geographical patterns of change in species richness. Our results indicate that open habitat specialist species tend to expand their range, whereas habitat generalist species tend to retract under climate change scenarios. The effect of incorporating landscape factors were particularly marked on open habitat specialists of conservation concern, for which the expected expansion under climate change seems to be severely constrained by land cover change. Overall, results suggest that particular attention should be given to landscape change in addition to climate when modelling the impacts of environmental changes for both farmland specialist and generalist bird distributions.}, }
@article {pmid29995321, year = {2018}, author = {Healy, TM and Brennan, RS and Whitehead, A and Schulte, PM}, title = {Tolerance traits related to climate change resilience are independent and polygenic.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5348-5360}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14386}, pmid = {29995321}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {Discovery Grant//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; DEB1265282//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB1601076//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {The resilience of organisms to climate change through adaptive evolution is dependent on the extent of genetically based variation in key phenotypic traits and the nature of genetic associations between them. For aquatic animals, upper thermal tolerance and hypoxia tolerance are likely to be a important determinants of sensitivity to climate change. To determine the genetic basis of these traits and to detect associations between them, we compared naturally occurring populations of two subspecies of Atlantic killifish, Fundulus heteroclitus, that differ in both thermal and hypoxia tolerance. Multilocus association mapping demonstrated that 47 and 35 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) explained 43.4% and 51.9% of variation in thermal and hypoxia tolerance, respectively, suggesting that genetic mechanisms underlie a substantial proportion of variation in each trait. However, no explanatory SNPs were shared between traits, and upper thermal tolerance varied approximately linearly with latitude, whereas hypoxia tolerance exhibited a steep phenotypic break across the contact zone between the subspecies. These results suggest that upper thermal tolerance and hypoxia tolerance are neither phenotypically correlated nor genetically associated, and thus that rates of adaptive change in these traits can be independently fine-tuned by natural selection. This modularity of important traits can underpin the evolvability of organisms to complex future environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid29991788, year = {2018}, author = {Thirumalai, K}, title = {A fresh take on ancient climate change in the North Pacific.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {559}, number = {7713}, pages = {185-186}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05614-y}, pmid = {29991788}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid29990916, year = {2018}, author = {Shaffril, HAM and Krauss, SE and Samsuddin, SF}, title = {A systematic review on Asian's farmers' adaptation practices towards climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {683-695}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.349}, pmid = {29990916}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change in Asia is affecting farmers' daily routines. Much of the focus surrounding climate change has targeted the economic and environmental repercussions on farming. Few systematic reviews have been carried out on the social impacts of climate change among farmers in Asia. The present article set out to analyse the existing literature on Asian farmers' adaptation practices towards the impacts of climate change. Guided by the PRISMA Statement (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) review method, a systematic review of the Scopus and Web of Science databases identified 38 related studies. Further review of these articles resulted in six main themes - crop management, irrigation and water management, farm management, financial management, physical infrastructure management and social activities. These six themes further produced a total of 35 sub-themes. Several recommendations are highlighted related to conducting more qualitative studies, to have specific and a standard systematic review method for guide research synthesis in context of climate change adaptation and to practice complimentary searching techniques such as citation tracking, reference searching, snowballing and contacting experts.}, }
@article {pmid29990360, year = {2018}, author = {Gateau-Rey, L and Tanner, EVJ and Rapidel, B and Marelli, JP and Royaert, S}, title = {Climate change could threaten cocoa production: Effects of 2015-16 El Niño-related drought on cocoa agroforests in Bahia, Brazil.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {e0200454}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0200454}, pmid = {29990360}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate models predict a possible increase in the frequency of strong climate events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which in parts of the tropics are the cause of exceptional droughts, these threaten global food production. Agroforestry systems are often suggested as promising diversification options to increase farmers' resilience to extreme climatic events. In the Northeastern state of Bahia, where most Brazilian cocoa is grown in wildlife-friendly agroforests, ENSOs cause severe droughts which negatively affect forest and agriculture. Cocoa (Theobroma cacao) is described as being sensitive to drought but there are no field-studies of the effect of ENSO-related drought on adult cocoa trees in the America's; there is one study of an experimentally-imposed drought in Indonesia which resulted in 10 to 46% yield loss. In our study, in randomly chosen farms in Bahia, Brazil, we measured the effect of the 2015-16 severe ENSO, which caused an unprecedented drought in cocoa agroforests. We show that drought caused high cocoa tree mortality (15%) and severely decreased cocoa yield (89%); the drought also increased infection rate of the chronic fungal disease witches' broom (Moniliophthora perniciosa). Ours findings showed that Brazilian cocoa agroforests are at risk and that increasing frequency of strong droughts are likely to cause decreased cocoa yields in the coming decades. Furthermore, because cocoa, like many crops, is grown somewhat beyond its climatic limits, it and other crops could be the 'canaries in the coalmine' warning of forthcoming major drought effects on semi-natural and natural vegetation.}, }
@article {pmid29990343, year = {2018}, author = {Sorensen, C and Murray, V and Lemery, J and Balbus, J}, title = {Climate change and women's health: Impacts and policy directions.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002603}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002603}, pmid = {29990343}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {In a Policy Forum, Cecilia Sorensen and colleagues discuss the implications of climate change for women's health.}, }
@article {pmid29989167, year = {2018}, author = {Bell, JJ and Rovellini, A and Davy, SK and Taylor, MW and Fulton, EA and Dunn, MR and Bennett, HM and Kandler, NM and Luter, HM and Webster, NS}, title = {Climate change alterations to ecosystem dominance: how might sponge-dominated reefs function?.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {99}, number = {9}, pages = {1920-1931}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2446}, pmid = {29989167}, issn = {0012-9658}, support = {//Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund/ ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic stressors are impacting ecological systems across the world. Of particular concern are the recent rapid changes occurring in coral reef systems. With ongoing degradation from both local and global stressors, future reefs are likely to function differently from current coral-dominated ecosystems. Determining key attributes of future reef states is critical to reliably predict outcomes for ecosystem service provision. Here we explore the impacts of changing sponge dominance on coral reefs. Qualitative modelling of reef futures suggests that changing sponge dominance due to increased sponge abundance will have different outcomes for other trophic levels compared with increased sponge dominance as a result of declining coral abundance. By exploring uncertainty in the model outcomes we identify the need to (1) quantify changes in carbon flow through sponges, (2) determine the importance of food limitation for sponges, (3) assess the ubiquity of the recently described &quot;sponge loop,&quot; (4) determine the competitive relationships between sponges and other benthic taxa, particularly algae, and (5) understand how changing dominance of other organisms alters trophic pathways and energy flows through ecosystems. Addressing these knowledge gaps will facilitate development of more complex models that assess functional attributes of sponge-dominated reef ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid29988420, year = {2018}, author = {Harvey, BJ and Nash, KL and Blanchard, JL and Edwards, DP}, title = {Ecosystem-based management of coral reefs under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {6354-6368}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4146}, pmid = {29988420}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Coral reefs provide food and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people as well as harbour some of the highest regions of biodiversity in the ocean. However, overexploitation, land-use change and other local anthropogenic threats to coral reefs have left many degraded. Additionally, coral reefs are faced with the dual emerging threats of ocean warming and acidification due to rising CO 2 emissions, with dire predictions that they will not survive the century. This review evaluates the impacts of climate change on coral reef organisms, communities and ecosystems, focusing on the interactions between climate change factors and local anthropogenic stressors. It then explores the shortcomings of existing management and the move towards ecosystem-based management and resilience thinking, before highlighting the need for climate change-ready marine protected areas (MPAs), reduction in local anthropogenic stressors, novel approaches such as human-assisted evolution and the importance of sustainable socialecological systems. It concludes that designation of climate change-ready MPAs, integrated with other management strategies involving stakeholders and participation at multiple scales such as marine spatial planning, will be required to maximise coral reef resilience under climate change. However, efforts to reduce carbon emissions are critical if the long-term efficacy of local management actions is to be maintained and coral reefs are to survive.}, }
@article {pmid29986484, year = {2018}, author = {Madrigano, J and Lane, K and Petrovic, N and Ahmed, M and Blum, M and Matte, T}, title = {Awareness, Risk Perception, and Protective Behaviors for Extreme Heat and Climate Change in New York City.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15071433}, pmid = {29986484}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Preventing heat-related illness and death requires an understanding of who is at risk and why, and options for intervention. We sought to understand the drivers of socioeconomic disparities in heat-related vulnerability in New York City (NYC), the perceived risk of heat exposure and climate change, and barriers to protective behaviors. A random digit dial telephone survey of 801 NYC adults aged 18 and older was conducted from 22 September⁻1 October, 2015. Thirteen percent of the population did not possess an air conditioner (AC), and another 15% used AC never/infrequently. In adjusted models, odds of not possessing AC were greater for non-Hispanic blacks compared with other races/ethnicities, odds ratio (OR) = 2.0 (95% CI: 1.1, 3.5), and for those with low annual household income, OR = 3.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 5.5). Only 12% reported going to a public place with AC if they could not keep cool at home. While low-income individuals were less likely to be aware of heat warnings, they were more likely to be concerned that heat could make them ill and that climate change would affect their health than participants with a higher household income, OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0, 2.3). In NYC, lack of access to AC partially explains disparities in heat-related health outcomes. Our results point to opportunities for knowledge building and engagement on heat-health awareness and climate change adaptation that can be applied in NYC and other metropolitan areas to improve and target public health prevention efforts.}, }
@article {pmid29984270, year = {2018}, author = {Coates, SJ and Fox, LP}, title = {Disseminated coccidioidomycosis as a harbinger of climate change.}, journal = {JAAD case reports}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {424-425}, doi = {10.1016/j.jdcr.2017.11.017}, pmid = {29984270}, issn = {2352-5126}, }
@article {pmid29983005, year = {2018}, author = {Dusenge, ME and Duarte, AG and Way, DA}, title = {Plant carbon metabolism and climate change: elevated CO2 and temperature impacts on photosynthesis, photorespiration and respiration.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.15283}, pmid = {29983005}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {//Ontario Ministry of Research, Innovation and Science/ ; //Canadian Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council/ ; 200091/2015-8//CNPQ/ ; }, abstract = {Contents Summary I. The importance of plant carbon metabolism for climate change II. Rising atmospheric CO2 and carbon metabolism III. Rising temperatures and carbon metabolism IV. Thermal acclimation responses of carbon metabolic processes can be best understood when studied together V. Will elevated CO2 offset warming-induced changes in carbon metabolism? VI. No plant is an island: water and nutrient limitations define plant responses to climate drivers VII. Conclusions Acknowledgements References Appendix A1 SUMMARY: Plant carbon metabolism is impacted by rising CO2 concentrations and temperatures, but also feeds back onto the climate system to help determine the trajectory of future climate change. Here we review how photosynthesis, photorespiration and respiration are affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate warming, both separately and in combination. We also compile data from the literature on plants grown at multiple temperatures, focusing on net CO2 assimilation rates and leaf dark respiration rates measured at the growth temperature (Agrowth and Rgrowth , respectively). Our analyses show that the ratio of Agrowth to Rgrowth is generally homeostatic across a wide range of species and growth temperatures, and that species that have reduced Agrowth at higher growth temperatures also tend to have reduced Rgrowth , while species that show stimulations in Agrowth under warming tend to have higher Rgrowth in the hotter environment. These results highlight the need to study these physiological processes together to better predict how vegetation carbon metabolism will respond to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29981997, year = {2018}, author = {Shrestha, S}, title = {Editorial of special issue on climate change impact on water environment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {474}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.031}, pmid = {29981997}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid29981032, year = {2018}, author = {Williams, L}, title = {Climate change, colonialism, and women's well-being in Canada: what is to be done?.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {109}, number = {2}, pages = {268-271}, doi = {10.17269/s41997-018-0031-z}, pmid = {29981032}, issn = {1920-7476}, abstract = {The impacts of accelerating climate change across Canada are unequally distributed between populations and regions. Emerging evidence shows climate change and resultant policies to be worsening gendered social and economic inequities between women and men, with women's participation largely absent in climate change research and decision-making. These dynamics are resulting in negative impacts for women's well-being, with Indigenous and historically marginalized women at increased risk of experiencing health inequities as a result of climate change. To date, public health discourse has largely failed to incorporate gender as a key determinant of health in discussions of climate change impacts on populations. Paralleling this lack of development, the entangled relationship between climate and colonialism tends to be subsumed under the term &quot;Aboriginality&quot; within health determinants discourse. This commentary on gender and climate change in Canada is framed within a radical intersectional approach as an alternative course of public health analysis and action aimed at addressing resulting health and power inequities. Following an overview of evidence regarding the gendered impacts of climate change on women's work, roles, agency, and well-being, several possible public health action areas on climate change and gender are highlighted as necessary components for resilient communities capable of meeting contemporary challenges.}, }
@article {pmid29980966, year = {2018}, author = {Salazar-Parra, C and Aranjuelo, I and Pascual, I and Aguirreolea, J and Sánchez-Díaz, M and Irigoyen, JJ and Araus, JL and Morales, F}, title = {Is vegetative area, photosynthesis, or grape C uploading involved in the climate change-related grape sugar/anthocyanin decoupling in Tempranillo?.}, journal = {Photosynthesis research}, volume = {138}, number = {1}, pages = {115-128}, doi = {10.1007/s11120-018-0552-6}, pmid = {29980966}, issn = {1573-5079}, support = {BFU2008-01405/BFI//Science and Innovation Spanish Ministry/ ; AGL2014-56075-C2-1-R//Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad/ ; A03 group//Aragón Government/ ; IT-932-16//Basque Government/ ; }, abstract = {Foreseen climate change is expected to impact on grape composition, both sugar and pigment content. We tested the hypothesis that interactions between main factors associated with climate change (elevated CO2, elevated temperature, and water deficit) decouple sugars and anthocyanins, and explored the possible involvement of vegetative area, photosynthesis, and grape C uploading on the decoupling. Tempranillo grapevine fruit-bearing cuttings were exposed to CO2 (700 vs. 400 ppm), temperature (ambient vs. + 4 °C), and irrigation levels (partial vs. full) in temperature-gradient greenhouses. In a search for mechanistic insights into the underlying processes, experiments 1 and 2 were designed to maximize photosynthesis and enlarge leaf area range among treatments, whereas plant growth was manipulated in order to deliberately down-regulate photosynthesis and control vegetative area in experiments 3 and 4. Towards this aim, treatments were applied either from fruit set to maturity with free vegetation and fully irrigated or at 5-8% of pot capacity (experiments 1 and 2), or from veraison to maturity with controlled vegetation and fully irrigated or at 40% of pot capacity (experiments 3 and 4). Modification of air 13C isotopic composition under elevated CO2 enabled the further characterization of whole C fixation period and C partitioning to grapes. Increases of the grape sugars-to-anthocyanins ratio were highly and positively correlated with photosynthesis and grape 13C labeling, but not with vegetative area. Evidence is presented for photosynthesis, from fruit set to veraison, and grape C uploading, from veraison to maturity, as key processes involved in the establishment and development, respectively, of the grape sugars to anthocyanins decoupling.}, }
@article {pmid29980735, year = {2018}, author = {Muller, M}, title = {Cape Town's drought: don't blame climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {559}, number = {7713}, pages = {174-176}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05649-1}, pmid = {29980735}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid29980085, year = {2018}, author = {Leng, G}, title = {Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C reduces future risk of yield loss in the United States: A probabilistic modeling approach.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {52-59}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.344}, pmid = {29980085}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study assess the possible outcomes of yield changes in the United States which is responsible for 40% of global maize supply under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios. Instead of providing deterministic estimates, this study introduces a probability-based approach that allow for examination of the associated probability of each outcome, which has great implications for decision-makings. Results show distinct spatial patterns in future yield loss risk associated with temperature rise at the county scale, with highest probability in central and southeastern US, and lowest risk in western US and high production regions such as Iowa. Comparing the estimates under 1.5 °C global warming against that in 2.0 °C warming indicates that keeping global warming within 1.5 °C has great benefits for reducing future yield loss risk. Based on the ensemble mean of 97 climate model simulations, the risk of yield dropping below historical long-term mean is projected to decrease from 81% to 75% for the country as a whole. Such benefit is more evident when considering the risk of yield reduction by 10% and 20%, which is expected to decrease by 25% and 28%, respectively. This suggests that constraining global temperature rise to 1.5 °C has more benefits for reducing extreme yield reductions. Spatially, keeping global warming within 1.5 °C would benefit more in Missouri, South Dakota, Eastern Kansas, Southern Texas and southeastern part of the country than other regions, highlighting the spatially variable benefits of climate mitigation efforts. The analysis framework introduced in this study can also be easily extended to other regions and crops. The results of this study highlight the areas where maize yield is most vulnerable to temperature rise, and the spatially variable benefits for reducing yield loss risk by keeping global warming within 1.5 °C.}, }
@article {pmid29979762, year = {2018}, author = {Kerr, JR and Wilson, MS}, title = {Changes in perceived scientific consensus shift beliefs about climate change and GM food safety.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {e0200295}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0200295}, pmid = {29979762}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Despite an overwhelming scientific consensus, a sizable minority of people doubt that human activity is causing climate change. Communicating the existence of a scientific consensus has been suggested as a way to correct individuals' misperceptions about human-caused climate change and other scientific issues, though empirical support is mixed. We report an experiment in which psychology students were presented with consensus information about two issues, and subsequently reported their perception of the level of consensus and extent of their endorsement of those issues. We find that messages about scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change and the safety of genetically modified food shift perceptions of scientific consensus. Using mediation models we also show that, for both these issues, high consensus messages also increase reported personal agreement with the scientific consensus, mediated by changes in perceptions of a scientific consensus. This confirms the role of perceived consensus in informing personal beliefs about climate change, though results indicate the impact of single, one-off messages may be limited.}, }
@article {pmid29975596, year = {2018}, author = {Evans, GW}, title = {Projected Behavioral Impacts of Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Annual review of psychology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-psych-010418-103023}, pmid = {29975596}, issn = {1545-2085}, abstract = {The projected behavioral impacts of global climate change emanate from environmental changes including temperature elevation, extreme weather events, and rising air pollution. Negative affect, interpersonal and intergroup conflict, and possibly psychological distress increase with rising temperature. Droughts, floods, and severe storms diminish quality of life, elevate stress, produce psychological distress, and may elevate interpersonal and intergroup conflict. Recreational opportunities are compromised by extreme weather, and children may suffer delayed cognitive development. Elevated pollutants concern citizens and may accentuate psychological distress. Outdoor recreational activity is curtailed by ambient pollutants. Limitations and issues in need of further investigation include the following: lack of data on direct experience with climate change rather than indirect assessments related to projected changes; poor spatial resolution in environmental exposures and behavioral assessments; few rigorous quasi-experimental studies; overreliance on self-reports of behavioral outcomes; little consideration of moderator effects; and scant investigation of underlying psychosocial processes to explain projected behavioral impacts. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Psychology Volume 70 is January 4, 2019. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.}, }
@article {pmid29974714, year = {2018}, author = {Xu, TY and Wu, JG and Wang, L}, title = {[The effects of climate change on isoprene emission rate from leaves of Pleioblastus amarus in different regions.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {6}, pages = {2028-2042}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201806.031}, pmid = {29974714}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Butadienes/*analysis ; China ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Hemiterpenes/*analysis ; Pentanes/*analysis ; Plant Leaves/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Based on the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios produced by the global climate model NorESM1-M and plant isoprene emissions model, the effects of climate change on the isoprene emission rate from leaves of Pleioblastus amarus in Yixing City of Jiangsu Province, Longmen County of Guangdong Province, Yulong Naxi Autonomous County of Yunnan Province and Wanyuan City of Sichuan Province were simulated. The differences of isoprene emission rate from leaves of P. amarus distributed in four regions were compared under future climate change scenarios. The results showed that mean annual air temperature would increase, annual precipitation and radiation intensity would greatly fluctuate, with the coexistence of increasing and decreasing trends in the four regions. In the baseline scenario, daily mean emission rate of isoprene from leaves of P. amarus was 71-470 μg·g-1·d-1, and annual mean value was 25954-171231 μg·g-1·a-1. The daily and annual emission rates in the four regions decreased with the order of Longmen, Yixing, Wanyuan and Yulong. Compared with the baseline scenario, daily mean emission rate of isoprene from leaves of P. amarus was about 4-45 μg·g-1·d-1 higher in future climate change scenario, and which was about 23, 29, 4, and 14 μg·g-1·d-1 higher than that in baseline in Yixing, Longmen, Yulong and Wanyuan, respectively. In addition, the emission rate of isoprene from leaves of P. amarus was more than 5% higher in the future climate change scenario than that in the baseline scenario, which was higher in Wanyuan and Yixing (>13%) than and lower in Longmen and Yulong (>5%). All the four regions reached the highest rate under RCP8.5 scenario (increased by about 11%-18%). Compared with the baseline scenario, annual emission rate of isoprene in the future climate change scenario was about 1500-17000 μg·g-1·a-1, and which was about 8560-13208 μg·g-1·a-1 higher in Yixing, 10862-16131 μg·g-1·a-1 higher in Longmen, 1574-3028 μg·g-1·a-1 higher in Yulong, 5288-8532 μg·g-1·a-1 higher in Wanyuan. In addition, the increasing rate of annual isoprene emission rates was 6%-14%. The rates in Yixing (8%-12%) and Wanyuan (8%-14%) were higher than that in the other two regions, the rate in Yulong (6%-12% increase) was the lowest, with all four regions increasing substantially (9%-14%) under RCP8.5 scenario. The results suggested that climate change would have different effects on the rate of isoprene emissions from leaves of P. amarus distributed in diffe-rent regions.}, }
@article {pmid29974629, year = {2018}, author = {Carroll, W and Graham, N and Lang, MK and Yunker, Z and McCartney, KD}, title = {The Corporate Elite and the Architecture of Climate Change Denial: A Network Analysis of Carbon Capital's Reach into Civil Society.}, journal = {Canadian review of sociology = Revue canadienne de sociologie}, volume = {55}, number = {3}, pages = {425-450}, doi = {10.1111/cars.12211}, pmid = {29974629}, issn = {1755-618X}, abstract = {This study employs social network analysis to map the Canadian network of carbon-capital corporations whose boards interlock with key knowledge-producing civil society organizations, including think tanks, industry associations, business advocacy organizations, universities, and research institutes. We find a pervasive pattern of carbon-sector reach into these domains of civil society, forming a single, connected network that is centered in Alberta yet linked to the central-Canadian corporate elite through hegemonic capitalist organizations, including major financial companies. This structure provides the architecture for a &quot;soft&quot; denial regime that acknowledges climate change while protecting the continued flow of profit to fossil fuel and related companies.}, }
@article {pmid29971745, year = {2018}, author = {Paul, S and Deka, RC and Gour, NK}, title = {Kinetics, mechanism, and global warming potentials of HFO-1234yf initiated by O3 molecules and NO3 radicals: insights from quantum study.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {26}, pages = {26144-26156}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-2633-7}, pmid = {29971745}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {F.4-2/2006(BSR)/CH/16-17/0152//University Grants Commission/ ; }, abstract = {In the present investigation, the oxidation of HFO-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene) with O3 molecule and NO3 radical is studied by quantum chemical methods. The possible reaction pathways of the titled molecule with O3 molecule and NO3 radical are analyzed using M06-2X meta-hybrid density functional with the 6-311++G(d,p) basis set. We have further employed a series of single-point energy calculations by using a potentially high-level couple cluster method with single and double excitations, including perturbative corrections ((CCSD(T)) at the same basis set. The addition reaction of HFO-1234yf with O3 molecule is initiated by the formation of primary ozonide complex, which leads to the formation of various carbonyl compounds and Criegee intermediates. The calculated energy barriers and thermochemical parameters inferred that decomposition of C˙H2OO˙ and CF3CFO is slightly more preferred over the formation of CF3C˙FOO˙ and CH2O. Further, the NO3 radical addition at α- and β-sits of CF3CF〓CH2 molecule is analyzed in details. The individual and overall rate constants for each reaction pathways are calculated by using canonical transition state theory over the temperature range of 250-450 K. We have observed that the computed rate constants are in good agreement with the available experimental data. Atmospheric lifetimes and global warming potentials of the HFO-1234yf are also reported in this manuscript.}, }
@article {pmid29969461, year = {2018}, author = {Abel, DW and Holloway, T and Harkey, M and Meier, P and Ahl, D and Limaye, VS and Patz, JA}, title = {Air-quality-related health impacts from climate change and from adaptation of cooling demand for buildings in the eastern United States: An interdisciplinary modeling study.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002599}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002599}, pmid = {29969461}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change negatively impacts human health through heat stress and exposure to worsened air pollution, amongst other pathways. Indoor use of air conditioning can be an effective strategy to reduce heat exposure. However, increased air conditioning use increases emissions of air pollutants from power plants, in turn worsening air quality and human health impacts. We used an interdisciplinary linked model system to quantify the impacts of heat-driven adaptation through building cooling demand on air-quality-related health outcomes in a representative mid-century climate scenario.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a modeling system that included downscaling historical and future climate data with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, simulating building electricity demand using the Regional Building Energy Simulation System (RBESS), simulating power sector production and emissions using MyPower, simulating ambient air quality using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, and calculating the incidence of adverse health outcomes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). We performed simulations for a representative present-day climate scenario and 2 representative mid-century climate scenarios, with and without exacerbated power sector emissions from adaptation in building energy use. We find that by mid-century, climate change alone can increase fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations by 58.6% (2.50 μg/m3) and ozone (O3) by 14.9% (8.06 parts per billion by volume [ppbv]) for the month of July. A larger change is found when comparing the present day to the combined impact of climate change and increased building energy use, where PM2.5 increases 61.1% (2.60 μg/m3) and O3 increases 15.9% (8.64 ppbv). Therefore, 3.8% of the total increase in PM2.5 and 6.7% of the total increase in O3 is attributable to adaptive behavior (extra air conditioning use). Health impacts assessment finds that for a mid-century climate change scenario (with adaptation), annual PM2.5-related adult mortality increases by 13,547 deaths (14 concentration-response functions with mean incidence range of 1,320 to 26,481, approximately US$126 billion cost) and annual O3-related adult mortality increases by 3,514 deaths (3 functions with mean incidence range of 2,175 to 4,920, approximately US$32.5 billion cost), calculated as a 3-month summer estimate based on July modeling. Air conditioning adaptation accounts for 654 (range of 87 to 1,245) of the PM2.5-related deaths (approximately US$6 billion cost, a 4.8% increase above climate change impacts alone) and 315 (range of 198 to 438) of the O3-related deaths (approximately US$3 billion cost, an 8.7% increase above climate change impacts alone). Limitations of this study include modeling only a single month, based on 1 model-year of future climate simulations. As a result, we do not project the future, but rather describe the potential damages from interactions arising between climate, energy use, and air quality.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study examines the contribution of future air-pollution-related health damages that are caused by the power sector through heat-driven air conditioning adaptation in buildings. Results show that without intervention, approximately 5%-9% of exacerbated air-pollution-related mortality will be due to increases in power sector emissions from heat-driven building electricity demand. This analysis highlights the need for cleaner energy sources, energy efficiency, and energy conservation to meet our growing dependence on building cooling systems and simultaneously mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29968827, year = {2018}, author = {Makri, A}, title = {Cyprus asserts itself as regional hub for climate-change research.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {559}, number = {7712}, pages = {15-16}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05528-9}, pmid = {29968827}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid29967461, year = {2018}, author = {Abou Chakra, M and Bumann, S and Schenk, H and Oschlies, A and Traulsen, A}, title = {Immediate action is the best strategy when facing uncertain climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2566}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-04968-1}, pmid = {29967461}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Mitigating the detrimental effects of climate change is a collective problem that requires global cooperation. However, achieving cooperation is difficult since benefits are obtained in the future. The so-called collective-risk game, devised to capture dangerous climate change, showed that catastrophic economic losses promote cooperation when individuals know the timing of a single climatic event. In reality, the impact and timing of climate change is not certain; moreover, recurrent events are possible. Thus, we devise a game where the risk of a collective loss can recur across multiple rounds. We find that wait and see behavior is successful only if players know when they need to contribute to avoid danger and if contributions can eliminate the risks. In all other cases, act quickly is more successful, especially under uncertainty and the possibility of repeated losses. Furthermore, we incorporate influential factors such as wealth inequality and heterogeneity in risks. Even under inequality individuals should contribute early, as long as contributions have the potential to decrease risk. Most importantly, we find that catastrophic scenarios are not necessary to induce such immediate collective action.}, }
@article {pmid29967319, year = {2018}, author = {van de Velde, S and Mills, BJW and Meysman, FJR and Lenton, TM and Poulton, SW}, title = {Early Palaeozoic ocean anoxia and global warming driven by the evolution of shallow burrowing.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2554}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-04973-4}, pmid = {29967319}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {PhD Aspirant//Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (Research Foundation Flanders)/ ; Academic Fellowship//University of Leeds/ ; ERC Grant 306933//EC | European Research Council (ERC)/ ; VICI grant 016.VICI.170.072//Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research)/ ; NE/P013651//Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; NE/P013651//Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; Wolfson Research Merit Award//Royal Society/ ; }, abstract = {The evolution of burrowing animals forms a defining event in the history of the Earth. It has been hypothesised that the expansion of seafloor burrowing during the Palaeozoic altered the biogeochemistry of the oceans and atmosphere. However, whilst potential impacts of bioturbation on the individual phosphorus, oxygen and sulphur cycles have been considered, combined effects have not been investigated, leading to major uncertainty over the timing and magnitude of the Earth system response to the evolution of bioturbation. Here we integrate the evolution of bioturbation into the COPSE model of global biogeochemical cycling, and compare quantitative model predictions to multiple geochemical proxies. Our results suggest that the advent of shallow burrowing in the early Cambrian contributed to a global low-oxygen state, which prevailed for ~100 million years. This impact of bioturbation on global biogeochemistry likely affected animal evolution through expanded ocean anoxia, high atmospheric CO2 levels and global warming.}, }
@article {pmid29966379, year = {2018}, author = {Ghazali, DA and Guericolas, M and Thys, F and Sarasin, F and Arcos González, P and Casalino, E}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Disaster and Emergency Medicine Focusing on Mitigation Disruptive Effects: an International Perspective.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15071379}, pmid = {29966379}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {In recent decades, climate change has been responsible for an increase in the average temperature of the troposphere and of the oceans, with consequences on the frequency and intensity of many extreme weather phenomena. Climate change&amp;rsquo;s effects on natural disasters can be expected to induce a rise in humanitarian crises. In addition, it will surely impact the population&amp;rsquo;s long-term general health, especially among the most fragile. There are foreseeable health risks that both ambulatory care organizations and hospitals will face as global temperatures rise. These risks include the geographic redistribution of infectious (particularly zoonotic) diseases, an increase in cardiac and respiratory illnesses, as well as a host of other health hazards. Some of these risks have been detailed for most developed countries as well as for some developing countries. Using these existing risk assessments as a template, organizational innovations as well as implementation strategies should be proposed to mitigate the disruptive effects of these health risks on emergency departments and by extension, reduce the negative impact of climate change on the populations they serve.}, }
@article {pmid29963745, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, L and Tian, F and Wang, Y and Wu, Z and Schurgers, G and Fensholt, R}, title = {Acceleration of global vegetation greenup from combined effects of climate change and human land management.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5484-5499}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14369}, pmid = {29963745}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DFF-6111-00258//Det Frie Forskningsråd/ ; }, abstract = {Global warming and human land management have greatly influenced vegetation growth through both changes in spring phenology and photosynthetic primary production. This will presumably impact the velocity of vegetation greenup (Vgreenup, the daily rate of changes in vegetation productivity during greenup period), yet little is currently known about the spatio-temporal patterns of Vgreenup of global vegetation. Here, we define Vgreenup as the ratio of the amplitude of greenup (Agreenup) to the duration of greenup (Dgreenup) and derive global Vgreenup from 34-year satellite leaf area index (LAI) observations to study spatio-temporal dynamics of Vgreenup at the global, hemispheric, and ecosystem scales. We find that 19.9% of the pixels analyzed (n = 1,175,453) experienced significant trends toward higher greenup rates by an average of 0.018 m2 m-2 day-1 for 1982-2015 as compared to 8.6% of pixels with significant negative trends (p < 0.05). Global distribution and dynamics of Vgreenup show high spatial heterogeneity and ecosystem-specific patterns, which is primarily determined by the high spatial variation in Agreenup, while the temporal dynamics of Vgreenup are directly controlled by both changes in Dgreenup and Agreenup. Areas with the largest Vgreenup and largest positive trends are both observed in deciduous and mixed forests as compared to nonforest ecosystems showing both lower Vgreenup and trends. For nonforest ecosystems, human-managed ecosystems (e.g., rangelands and rainfed croplands) exhibited higher Vgreenup and positive trends than those of natural counterparts, suggesting strong imprints of human land management on terrestrial ecosystem functioning. Globally, warming has accelerated Vgreenup in temperature-constrained high latitude forest ecosystems and arctic regions, but decelerated Vgreenup in temperate and arid/semiarid areas. These results suggest that the combined effects of climate change and human land management have greatly accelerated global vegetation greenup, with important implications for changes in terrestrial ecosystem functioning and global carbon cycling.}, }
@article {pmid29963621, year = {2018}, author = {Shan, Y and Guan, D and Hubacek, K and Zheng, B and Davis, SJ and Jia, L and Liu, J and Liu, Z and Fromer, N and Mi, Z and Meng, J and Deng, X and Li, Y and Lin, J and Schroeder, H and Weisz, H and Schellnhuber, HJ}, title = {City-level climate change mitigation in China.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {6}, pages = {eaaq0390}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aaq0390}, pmid = {29963621}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {As national efforts to reduce CO2 emissions intensify, policy-makers need increasingly specific, subnational information about the sources of CO2 and the potential reductions and economic implications of different possible policies. This is particularly true in China, a large and economically diverse country that has rapidly industrialized and urbanized and that has pledged under the Paris Agreement that its emissions will peak by 2030. We present new, city-level estimates of CO2 emissions for 182 Chinese cities, decomposed into 17 different fossil fuels, 46 socioeconomic sectors, and 7 industrial processes. We find that more affluent cities have systematically lower emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), supported by imports from less affluent, industrial cities located nearby. In turn, clusters of industrial cities are supported by nearby centers of coal or oil extraction. Whereas policies directly targeting manufacturing and electric power infrastructure would drastically undermine the GDP of industrial cities, consumption-based policies might allow emission reductions to be subsidized by those with greater ability to pay. In particular, sector-based analysis of each city suggests that technological improvements could be a practical and effective means of reducing emissions while maintaining growth and the current economic structure and energy system. We explore city-level emission reductions under three scenarios of technological progress to show that substantial reductions (up to 31%) are possible by updating a disproportionately small fraction of existing infrastructure.}, }
@article {pmid29960228, year = {2018}, author = {Ahn, JM and Kwon, HG and Yang, DS and Kim, YS}, title = {Assessing environmental flows of coordinated operation of dams and weirs in the Geum River basin under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {643}, number = {}, pages = {912-925}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.225}, pmid = {29960228}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted frequent and severe droughts and floods caused by irregular climatic conditions in the future, making water resources management difficult. Within the field of integrated watershed management, the concept of 'environmental flow' is being increasingly studied. In Korea, the Four Major Rivers Restoration Project was carried out as part of the plan to manage future water resources, particularly in response to climate change. In order to improve comprehensive water resources management, there is an interest in integrating into the operation of the existing dams the multi-functional weirs constructed under the said project. To date, there is an absence of studies comprehensively considering climate change, run-off volume, reservoir operations, and environmental flow, with most of the existing studies focusing only on one or the other of these factors. In this study, we presented a method to evaluate the river environment that considers all the said factors. To evaluate how environmental flow is influenced by the changes in river flow due to climate change and hydraulic structure operation, the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) was used as the hydrological model, HEC-ResSim was used as the hydraulic structures operational model, and the Global Environmental Flow Calculator (GEFC) was used as the method to evaluate environmental flows. RCP climate change scenarios, provided by the Climate Change Information Center (CCIC), a branch of the Korea Meteorological Administration, were applied to analyze the future watershed runoff characteristics of the Geum River Basin under different hydraulic structure operation modes. This study concludes that efficient use of water resources can be achieved through the integrated operation of the dams and multi-functional weirs in times of water shortage. Comparing the results of modelling under a no‑carbon reduction scenario on one hand, and a scenario in which emissions were reduced on the other hand, differences were found in flows during floods, in the mean annual runoff ratio in accordance with the environment management class, and in the environmental flow rating. It appears that a new water resources management plan is required to respond to climate change as indicated by the shift of the flow duration curve to a lower environmental management class (EMC) under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid29957890, year = {2018}, author = {Li, XR and Jia, RL and Zhang, ZS and Zhang, P and Hui, R}, title = {Hydrological response of biological soil crusts to global warming: A ten-year simulative study.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {4960-4971}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14378}, pmid = {29957890}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {41621001//National Natural Scientific Foundation of China/ ; 41530746//National Natural Scientific Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Biological soil crusts across the desert regions play a key role in regional ecological security and ecological health. They are vital biotic components of desert ecosystems that maintain soil stability, fix carbon and nitrogen, influence the establishment of vascular plants, and serve as habitats for a large number of arthropods and microorganisms, as well as influencing soil hydrological processes. Changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to influence the functioning of desert ecosystems by altering biotic components such as the species composition of biological soil crusts. However, it remains unclear how these important components will respond to the prolonged warming and reduced precipitation that is predicted to occur with climate change. To evaluate how the hydrological properties of these biological soil crusts respond to these alterations, we used open-top chambers over a 10-year period to simulate warming and reduced precipitation. Infiltration, dew entrapment, and evaporation were measured as surrogates of the hydrological functioning of biological soil crusts. It was found that the ongoing warming coupled with reduced precipitation will more strongly affect moss in crustal communities than lichens and cyanobacteria, which will lead to a direct alteration of the hydrological performance of biological soil crusts. Reductions in moss abundance, surface cover, and biomass resulted in a change in structure and function of crustal communities, decreased dew entrapment, and increased infiltration and evaporation of biological soil crusts in desert ecosystems, which further impacted on the desert soil water balance.}, }
@article {pmid29955993, year = {2018}, author = {Hultine, KR and Bush, SE and Ward, JK and Dawson, TE}, title = {Does sexual dimorphism predispose dioecious riparian trees to sex ratio imbalances under climate change?.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {187}, number = {4}, pages = {921-931}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-018-4190-7}, pmid = {29955993}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {1340856//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Environmental changes have resulted in significant declines in native riparian forests that are comprised largely of dioecious tree taxa, including boxelder and iconic cottonwood/willow gallery forests. Dioecious species may be especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change given that they often exhibit skewed sex ratios that are reinforced by physiological and morphological specialization of each sex to specific microhabitats. A comprehensive data synthesis suggests that male individuals of boxelder and cottonwood taxa have a higher representation on dry microhabitats than females and are less physiologically sensitive to increased aridity than co-occurring females. Consequently, extreme male-biased sex ratios are possible under future climate conditions that could reduce population fitness below a sustainable threshold. Riparian willows, on the other hand, generally do not express obvious sexual dimorphism in habitat preference or physiological sensitivity to aridity. Thus, it is unclear whether climate change will impact population structure of willows in ways that parallel other dioecious riparian tree taxa. Future riparian tree restoration programs should aim to maintain future sex ratio balance that maximizes population fitness under projected hydro-climatological conditions. Recent advances in genomics will likely provide the critical tools for early sex determination in pre-reproductive trees across riparian tree species such that sex ratio balance could be targeted during initial stages of restoration, along with adaptations for drought tolerance and other key traits that are essential for survival under future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid29955862, year = {2018}, author = {Jones, LM and Eves-van den Akker, S and van-Oosten Hawle, P and Atkinson, HJ and Urwin, PE}, title = {Duplication of hsp-110 Is Implicated in Differential Success of Globodera Species under Climate Change.}, journal = {Molecular biology and evolution}, volume = {35}, number = {10}, pages = {2401-2413}, doi = {10.1093/molbev/msy132}, pmid = {29955862}, issn = {1537-1719}, support = {P40 OD010440/OD/NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Managing the emergence and spread of crop pests and pathogens is essential for global food security. Understanding how organisms have adapted to their native climate is key to predicting the impact of climate change. The potato cyst nematodes Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis are economically important plant pathogens that cause yield losses of up to 50% in potato. The two species have different thermal optima that may relate to differences in the altitude of their regions of origin in the Andes. Here, we demonstrate that juveniles of G. pallida are less able to recover from heat stress than those of G. rostochiensis. Genome-wide analysis revealed that while both Globodera species respond to heat stress by induction of various protective heat-inducible genes, G. pallida experiences heat stress at lower temperatures. We use C. elegans as a model to demonstrate the dependence of the heat stress response on expression of Heat Shock Factor-1 (HSF-1). Moreover, we show that hsp-110 is induced by heat stress in G. rostochiensis, but not in the less thermotolerant G. pallida. Sequence analysis revealed that this gene and its promoter was duplicated in G. rostochiensis and acquired thermoregulatory properties. We show that hsp-110 is required for recovery from acute thermal stress in both C. elegans and in G. rostochiensis. Our findings point towards an underlying molecular mechanism that allows the differential expansion of one species relative to another closely related species under current climate change scenarios. Similar mechanisms may be true of other invertebrate species with pest status.}, }
@article {pmid29955348, year = {2017}, author = {Mthembu, NN and Zwane, EM}, title = {The adaptive capacity of smallholder mixed-farming systems to the impact of climate change: The case of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {469}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v9i1.469}, pmid = {29955348}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change poses a serious threat to efforts by developing countries to ensure food security and poverty reduction. The National Development goals of South Africa envisage the agricultural sector as a key driver for job creation and economic growth. This article seeks to investigate the adaptive capacity of the Ncunjane farming community in Msinga, KwaZulu-Natal in response to drought spells of 2010 and 2014. This article draws on data collected using both qualitative and quantitative methods in 2011 and later in 2015 with the data analysed through the Statistical Package for Social Science to determine significant correlations between variables. Analysis of the vulnerability and adaptive capacity is performed using conceptual framework. This study found that both smallholder farmers who engaged in livestock and crop production have experienced high cattle mortalities and stagnant crop productivity, which in turn put pressure on already constrained disposable household income because of increased food costs and agricultural input costs, particularly supplementary animal feed. Cattle owners were more vulnerable to drought because of poor risk management and thus became highly dependent on government to provide drought relief. Application for government drought relief was found not to be effective in cases of large herds of cattle. Variability of rainfall and prolonged heat spells has a significant impact on the sustainability of smallholder mixed-farming systems, leaving agriculture as a highly questionable form of livelihood for rural farming communities such as Msinga. The article recommends strengthened institutional mechanisms so that stakeholders should play a more meaningful role within provincial and local agriculture in leveraging government support but places emphasis on the adoption of innovative strategies that can potentially yield significantly resilient smallholder mixed-farming systems in the wake of climate variability.}, }
@article {pmid29955344, year = {2017}, author = {Masipa, TS}, title = {The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {411}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v9i1.411}, pmid = {29955344}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This article aims to examine the impact of climate change on food security in South Africa. For this purpose, the article adopted a desktop study approach. Previous studies, reports, surveys and policies on climate change and food (in)security. From this paper's analysis, climate change presents a high risk to food security in sub-Saharan countries from crop production to food distribution and consumption. In light of this, it is found that climate change, particularly global warming, affects food security through food availability, accessibility, utilisation and affordability. To mitigate these risks, there is a need for an integrated policy approach to protect the arable land against global warming. The argument advanced in this article is that South Africa's ability to adapt and protect its food items depends on the understanding of risks and the vulnerability of various food items to climate change. However, this poses a challenge in developing countries, including South Africa, because such countries have weak institutions and limited access to technology. Another concern is a wide gap between the cost of adapting and the necessary financial support from the government. There is also a need to invest in technologies that will resist risks on food systems.}, }
@article {pmid29955263, year = {2018}, author = {Mugambiwa, SS and Dzomonda, O}, title = {Climate change and vulnerability discourse by students at a South African university.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {476}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v10i1.476}, pmid = {29955263}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to pose grave consequences to communities around the world. It is predicted that many people, mostly in the developing world, will experience shortages of water and food as well as numerous health-related effects because of climate change. Therefore, rigorous global action is needed to enable developing countries to adapt to the effects of climate change. Universities play a pivotal role in addressing these issues and their impacts through research and technological innovations. Hence, assessing the extent to which university students understand climate change and its impacts displays the extent of hope in mitigating future changes in climatic conditions. This article assesses the knowledge and understanding of climate change and its impacts by students at an institution of higher learning in South Africa. This study utilised a quantitative approach and a descriptive design. The convenience method was used to obtain participants for the study. Self-administered questionnaires were utilised in a survey to collect data from the participants. A sample of 90 university students participated in the survey. Data analysis included descriptive statistics and T-tests. Reliability was measured using the Cronbach's alpha. The study discovered that university students have low knowledge and understanding of climate change. As a result, the study concluded that if students could be well-informed about climate change issues, they could positively contribute to the development of their communities by crafting smart climate change mitigation and adaptation skills.}, }
@article {pmid29955256, year = {2018}, author = {Dujardin, S and Hermesse, J and Dendoncker, N}, title = {Making space for experiential knowledge in climate change adaptation? Insights from municipal planning officers in Bohol, Philippines.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {433}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v10i1.433}, pmid = {29955256}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is a global phenomenon that has multiple local effects on people and places. Yet, climate change knowledge often travels uncomfortably across scales and needs constant re-interpretation as it is applied in different spatial contexts. This requires the examination of how scientific and local knowledge about climate change travel across social systems and shape local meanings and adaptive actions on climate change. Using an interpretive social science analysis of environmental change, this study investigates development planning as a key boundary object for handling both kinds of knowledge and explores experiential knowledge of climate change held by planning officers from the coastal landscape of the island province of Bohol, Philippines. Drawing upon face-to-face interviews, mental maps, and planning documents review, main results first characterise three experiential ways of knowing about climate change across spaces of lived experiences and spaces of maps and plans. Then, we show how planners engage with climate change adaptation by combining national, techno-scientific and local, on-the-ground ways of knowing, offering a venue in which experiential knowledge on climate change is used for building planning significance and making more grounded accounts of adaptation moving forward in planning policy and practice.}, }
@article {pmid29955255, year = {2018}, author = {Mbereko, A and Chimbari, MJ and Mukaratirwa, S}, title = {The political ecology of stakeholder-driven climate change adaptation: Case study from Ntalale ward, Gwanda district, in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {419}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v10i1.419}, pmid = {29955255}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Vulnerable rural communities face climate change-related shifts in rainfall patterns, particularly droughts and floods. The study investigated how Ntalale ward households in Gwanda district of Zimbabwe interpret climate change and adapt to its stressors in the context of the Zimbabwean political economy. Focus group discussions and interviews collected qualitative data. The community has experienced the following climate change-related risks: droughts, floods, heatwave and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. Droughts were reported to be occurring more frequent in the past 25 years as compared to the period before 1991. Ntalale area experienced floods in the 2002-2003 rainy season only. Respondents generally perceived that the rainy season had changed in the past 5 years, with the season now beginning in December and ending in March. The households have resorted to shifting cultivation practices, replanting, use of wetlands in preference to upland fields, changing of seed varieties or crops, selling of livestock and informal trading as coping strategies. Although non-governmental organisations have assisted the community to set up irrigation schemes, a few selected community members have benefited from the initiative. The Ntalale community has experienced four climate change-related risks and institutions have assisted the community. It is recommended that cooperation between households and institutions is key in developing stakeholder-driven adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid29955251, year = {2018}, author = {Mugambiwa, SS}, title = {Adaptation measures to sustain indigenous practices and the use of indigenous knowledge systems to adapt to climate change in Mutoko rural district of Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {388}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v10i1.388}, pmid = {29955251}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This article examines adaptation measures used to sustain indigenous practices and the use of indigenous knowledge systems (IKS) to adapt to climate change in Mutoko rural district of Zimbabwe. Community-based adaptation is able to reduce the vulnerability as well as improve the resilience of the local people to climatic variability and change. Subsistence farmers have always adopted adaptive strategies to some of these changes over the years. As such, the adoption of indigenous practices will significantly help rural community members to adapt to climate change. This study employed a qualitative method and an exploratory design, and the results are derived from 30 purposively selected in-depth interviews. The study discovered that there are numerous measures used to adapt to climate change and subsequently to sustain indigenous practices. The study also found that the community no longer grows maize in large quantities, having shifted to millet and sorghum in order to adapt to climate change. The community also provided various strategies to adapt to climate change. These strategies include mulching, creating large storage houses for produce and creating temporary walls on riverbanks in order to store water when the rivers dry up. This study concludes that climate change adaptation measures employed by the community have significantly helped them to sustain their indigenous practices in many ways. Also, the use of IKS, through activities such as crop type change from maize to traditional millet and sorghum (which facilitates traditional lifestyle and activities), re-establishes the community's indigenous practices since they are made to observe the practices of yesteryear.}, }
@article {pmid29955250, year = {2018}, author = {Ketlhoilwe, MJ and Kanene, KM}, title = {Access to energy sources in the face of climate change: Challenges faced by women in rural communities.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {375}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v10i1.375}, pmid = {29955250}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Access to energy is a challenge to rural communities, especially among women who are the prime household energy users. This article is based on research carried out in the Tswapong villages in Botswana where energy sources particularly wood, are slowly getting depleted while electricity connection costs remain unaffordable for the poor. The article provides constructivist analysis of experiences in real-life situations among women. Data were generated through observations, documents analysis, interviews and focus group discussions. It has emerged from the research that majority of the respondents use firewood as energy source. Firewood and gas are mainly used for cooking while electricity is mainly used for lighting. The demand for firewood has led to firewood commercialisation, the depletion of preferred firewood tree species and increase in the impact of climate change. The article recommends economic diversification and subsidies to empower the majority of the rural poor to connect to the national electric grid and reduce on firewood dependence. These could be complemented by harnessing of solar energy and low-cost, energy-saving technologies. Subsidies to enable women access to energy services would contribute immensely to the decade of Sustainable Energy for All and to the attainment of the post 2015 sustainable development goal on energy.}, }
@article {pmid29954662, year = {2018}, author = {Needleman, RK and Neylan, IP and Erickson, TB}, title = {Environmental and Ecological Effects of Climate Change on Venomous Marine and Amphibious Species in the Wilderness.}, journal = {Wilderness &amp; environmental medicine}, volume = {29}, number = {3}, pages = {343-356}, doi = {10.1016/j.wem.2018.04.003}, pmid = {29954662}, issn = {1545-1534}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Recent analyses of data show a warming trend in global average air and sea surface ocean temperatures. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, the sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. This article will focus on climate change and projected effects on venomous marine and amphibious creatures with the potential impact on human health.<br><br>METHODS: Retrospective analysis of environmental, ecological, and medical literature with a focus on climate change, toxinology, and future modeling specific to venomous aquatic and amphibious creatures. Species included venomous jellyfish, poisonous fish, crown-of-thorns starfish, sea snakes, and toxic frogs.<br><br>RESULTS: In several projected scenarios, rising temperatures, weather extremes, and shifts in seasons will increase poisonous population numbers, particularly with certain marine creatures like jellyfish and crown-of-thorns starfish. Habitat expansions by lionfish and sea snakes are projected to occur. These phenomena, along with increases in human populations and coastal development will likely increase human-animal encounters. Other species, particularly amphibious toxic frogs, are declining rapidly due to their sensitivity to any temperature change or subtle alterations in the stability of their environment. If temperatures continue to rise to record levels over the next decades, it is predicted that the populations of these once plentiful and critically important animals to the aquatic ecosystem will decline and their geographic distributions will shrink.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Review of the literature investigating the effect and forecasts of climate change on venomous marine and amphibious creatures has demonstrated that temperature extremes and changes to climatic norms will likely have a dramatic effect on these toxicological organisms. The effects of climate change on these species through temperature alteration and rising coastal waters will influence each species differently and in turn potentially affect commercial industries, travel, tourism, and human health.}, }
@article {pmid29953493, year = {2018}, author = {Lee, H and Kim, JE and Lee, S and Lee, CH}, title = {Potential effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics in Korea.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {e0199205}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0199205}, pmid = {29953493}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Dengue fever is a major international public health concern, with more than 55% of the world population at risk of infection. Recent climate changes related to global warming have increased the potential risk of domestic outbreaks of dengue in Korea. In this study, we develop a two-strain dengue model associated with climate-dependent parameters based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We assess the potential risks of dengue outbreaks by means of the vector capacity and intensity under various RCP scenarios. A sensitivity analysis of the temperature-dependent parameters is performed to explore the effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics. Our results demonstrate that a higher temperature significantly enhances the potential threat of domestic dengue outbreaks in Korea. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of countermeasures on the cumulative incidence of humans and vectors. The current main control measures (comprising only travel restrictions) for infected humans in Korea are not as effective as combined control measures (travel restrictions and vector control), dramatically reducing the possibilities of dengue outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid29943748, year = {2018}, author = {Levi, M and Kjellstrom, T and Baldasseroni, A}, title = {Impact of climate change on occupational health and productivity: a systematic literature review focusing on workplace heat.}, journal = {La Medicina del lavoro}, volume = {109}, number = {3}, pages = {163-179}, doi = {10.23749/mdl.v109i3.6851}, pmid = {29943748}, issn = {0025-7818}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: With climate change, mean annual air temperatures are getting hotter and extreme weather events will become more and more common in most parts of the world.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: As part of the EU funded project HEAT-SHIELD we conducted a systematic review to summarize the epidemiological evidence of the effects of global warming-related heat exposure on workers' health and productivity.<br><br>METHODS: Three separate searches, focused, respectively, on: i) heat-related illness (HRI), cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases; ii) traumatic injuries; and iii) vector-borne diseases or vectors distribution, were conducted in PubMed. EMBASE was also consulted to retrieve relevant studies focused on the health effects of climate change. A fourth search strategy to assess the effects on work productivity was conducted both in PubMed and in the SCOPUS database.<br><br>RESULTS: A significant proportion of studies reported findings regarding the Mesoamerican nephropathy issue. This is a disease occurring especially among young and middle-aged male sugarcane workers, without conventional risk factors for chronic kidney disease. For injuries, there is a reversed U-shaped exposure-response relationship between Tmax and overall daily injury claims. Outdoor workers are at increased risk of vector-borne infectious diseases, as a positive correlation between higher air temperatures and current or future expansion of the habitat of vectors is being observed. As for productivity, agriculture and construction are the most studied sectors; a day with temperatures exceeding 32°C can reduce daily labour supply in exposed sectors by up to 14%.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The present findings should inform development of further research and related health policies in the EU and beyond with regard to protecting working people from the effects of workplace heat during climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29938796, year = {2018}, author = {Lamprecht, A and Semenchuk, PR and Steinbauer, K and Winkler, M and Pauli, H}, title = {Climate change leads to accelerated transformation of high-elevation vegetation in the central Alps.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {220}, number = {2}, pages = {447-459}, doi = {10.1111/nph.15290}, pmid = {29938796}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {ACRP 6: GZ B368633//Austrian Climate Research Program/ ; KR13AC6K11076//Austrian Climate Research Program/ ; }, abstract = {High mountain ecosystems and their biota are governed by low-temperature conditions and thus can be used as indicators for climate warming impacts on natural ecosystems, provided that long-term data exist. We used data from the largest alpine to nival permanent plot site in the Alps, established in the frame of the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) on Schrankogel in the Tyrolean Alps, Austria, in 1994, and resurveyed in 2004 and 2014. Vascular plant species richness per plot increased over the entire period, albeit to a lesser extent in the second decade, because disappearance events increased markedly in the latter period. Although presence/absence data could only marginally explain range shift dynamics, changes in species cover and plant community composition indicate an accelerating transformation towards a more warmth-demanding and more drought-adapted vegetation, which is strongest at the lowest, least rugged subsite. Divergent responses of vertical distribution groups of species suggest that direct warming effects, rather than competitive displacement, are the primary causes of the observed patterns. The continued decrease in cryophilic species could imply that trailing edge dynamics proceed more rapidly than successful colonisation, which would favour a period of accelerated species declines.}, }
@article {pmid29938209, year = {2018}, author = {Balkovič, J and Skalský, R and Folberth, C and Khabarov, N and Schmid, E and Madaras, M and Obersteiner, M and van der Velde, M}, title = {Impacts and Uncertainties of +2°C of Climate Change and Soil Degradation on European Crop Calorie Supply.}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {373-395}, doi = {10.1002/2017EF000629}, pmid = {29938209}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {Even if global warming is kept below +2°C, European agriculture will be significantly impacted. Soil degradation may amplify these impacts substantially and thus hamper crop production further. We quantify biophysical consequences and bracket uncertainty of +2°C warming on calories supply from 10 major crops and vulnerability to soil degradation in Europe using crop modeling. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model together with regional climate projections from the European branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) was used for this purpose. A robustly positive calorie yield change was estimated for the EU Member States except for some regions in Southern and South-Eastern Europe. The mean impacts range from +30 Gcal ha-1 in the north, through +25 and +20 Gcal ha-1 in Western and Eastern Europe, respectively, to +10 Gcal ha-1 in the south if soil degradation and heat impacts are not accounted for. Elevated CO2 and increased temperature are the dominant drivers of the simulated yield changes in high-input agricultural systems. The growth stimulus due to elevated CO2 may offset potentially negative yield impacts of temperature increase by +2°C in most of Europe. Soil degradation causes a calorie vulnerability ranging from 0 to 50 Gcal ha-1 due to insufficient compensation for nutrient depletion and this might undermine climate benefits in many regions, if not prevented by adaptation measures, especially in Eastern and North-Eastern Europe. Uncertainties due to future potentials for crop intensification are about 2-50 times higher than climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid29938085, year = {2018}, author = {Bellard, C and Jeschke, JM and Leroy, B and Mace, GM}, title = {Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {5688-5700}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4098}, pmid = {29938085}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change and biological invasions are threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. It has now been widely acknowledged that climate change will affect biological invasions. A large number of studies have investigated predicted shifts and other changes in the geographic ranges of invasive alien species related to climate change using modeling approaches. Yet these studies have provided contradictory evidence, and no consensus has been reached. We conducted a systematic review of 423 modeling case studies included in 71 publications that have examined the predicted effects of climate change on those species. We differentiate the approaches used in these studies and synthesize their main results. Our results reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of invasive alien species distribution in the future. We found biases in the literature both regarding the taxa, toward plants and invertebrates, and the areas of the planet investigated. Despite these biases, we found for the plants and vertebrates studied that climate change will more frequently contribute to a decrease in species range size than an increase in the overall area occupied. This is largely due to oceans preventing terrestrial invaders from spreading poleward. In contrast, we found that the ranges of invertebrates and pathogens studied are more likely to increase following climate change. An important caveat to these findings is that researchers have rarely considered the effects of climate change on transport, introduction success, or the resulting impacts. We recommend closing these research gaps, and propose additional avenues for future investigations, as well as opportunities and challenges for managing invasions under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29938046, year = {2018}, author = {Terando, A and Youngsteadt, E and Meineke, E and Prado, S}, title = {Accurate near surface air temperature measurements are necessary to gauge large-scale ecological responses to global climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {5233-5234}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.3972}, pmid = {29938046}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Linked Article: https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3965.}, }
@article {pmid29937583, year = {2018}, author = {Prati, G and Pietrantoni, L and Albanesi, C}, title = {Human values and beliefs and concern about climate change: a Bayesian longitudinal analysis.}, journal = {Quality &amp; quantity}, volume = {52}, number = {4}, pages = {1613-1625}, doi = {10.1007/s11135-017-0538-z}, pmid = {29937583}, issn = {0033-5177}, abstract = {The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of human values on beliefs and concern about climate change using a longitudinal design and Bayesian analysis. A sample of 298 undergraduate/master students filled out the same questionnaire on two occasions at an interval of 2 months. The questionnaire included measures of beliefs and concern about climate change (i.e., perceived consequences, risk perception, and skepticism) and human values (i.e., the Portrait Values Questionnaire). After controlling for gender and the respective baseline score, universalism at Time 1 was associated with higher levels of perceived consequences of climate change and lower levels of climate change skepticism. Self-direction at Time 1 predicted Time 2 climate change risk perception and perceived consequences of climate change. Hedonism at Time 1 was associated with Time 2 climate change risk perception. The other human values at Time 1 were not associated with any of the measures of beliefs and concern about climate change at Time 2. The results of this study suggest that a focus on universalism and self-direction values seems to be a more successful approach to stimulate public engagement with climate change than a focus on other human values.}, }
@article {pmid29934542, year = {2018}, author = {Ramos, JE and Pecl, GT and Moltschaniwskyj, NA and Semmens, JM and Souza, CA and Strugnell, JM}, title = {Population genetic signatures of a climate change driven marine range extension.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {9558}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-27351-y}, pmid = {29934542}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Shifts in species distribution, or 'range shifts', are one of the most commonly documented responses to ocean warming, with important consequences for the function and structure of ecosystems, and for socio-economic activities. Understanding the genetic signatures of range shifts can help build our knowledge of the capacity of species to establish and persist in colonised areas. Here, seven microsatellite loci were used to examine the population connectivity, genetic structure and diversity of Octopus tetricus, which has extended its distribution several hundred kilometres polewards associated with the southwards extension of the warm East Australian Current along south-eastern Australia. The historical distribution and the range extension zones had significant genetic differences but levels of genetic diversity were comparable. The population in the range extension zone was sub-structured, contained relatively high levels of self-recruitment and was sourced by migrants from along the entire geographic distribution. Genetic bottlenecks and changes in population size were detected throughout the range extension axis. Persistent gene flow from throughout the historical zone and moderate genetic diversity may buffer the genetic bottlenecks and favour the range extension of O. tetricus. These characteristics may aid adaptation, establishment, and long-term persistence of the population in the range extension zone.}, }
@article {pmid29931768, year = {2018}, author = {Jenouvrier, S and Desprez, M and Fay, R and Barbraud, C and Weimerskirch, H and Delord, K and Caswell, H}, title = {Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long-lived seabird.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {87}, number = {4}, pages = {906-920}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12827}, pmid = {29931768}, issn = {1365-2656}, abstract = {Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long-lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: &quot;Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?&quot; We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry-over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at-sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre-breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry-over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate change. Robust conclusions about the roles of various phases of the life cycle and functional traits in population response to climate change rely on an understanding of the relationships of traits to demographic rates across the complete life cycle.}, }
@article {pmid29930266, year = {2018}, author = {Belote, RT and Carroll, C and Martinuzzi, S and Michalak, J and Williams, JW and Williamson, MA and Aplet, GH}, title = {Assessing agreement among alternative climate change projections to inform conservation recommendations in the contiguous United States.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {9441}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-27721-6}, pmid = {29930266}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Addressing uncertainties in climate vulnerability remains a challenge for conservation planning. We evaluate how confidence in conservation recommendations may change with agreement among alternative climate projections and metrics of climate exposure. We assessed agreement among three multivariate estimates of climate exposure (forward velocity, backward velocity, and climate dissimilarity) using 18 alternative climate projections for the contiguous United States. For each metric, we classified maps into quartiles for each alternative climate projections, and calculated the frequency of quartiles assigned for each gridded location (high quartile frequency = more agreement among climate projections). We evaluated recommendations using a recent climate adaptation heuristic framework that recommends emphasizing various conservation strategies to land based on current conservation value and expected climate exposure. We found that areas where conservation strategies would be confidently assigned based on high agreement among climate projections varied substantially across regions. In general, there was more agreement in forward and backward velocity estimates among alternative projections than agreement in estimates of local dissimilarity. Consensus of climate predictions resulted in the same conservation recommendation assignments in a few areas, but patterns varied by climate exposure metric. This work demonstrates an approach for explicitly evaluating alternative predictions in geographic patterns of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29929273, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, H and Fan, J and Cao, W and Harris, W and Li, Y and Chi, W and Wang, S}, title = {Response of wind erosion dynamics to climate change and human activity in Inner Mongolia, China during 1990 to 2015.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {639}, number = {}, pages = {1038-1050}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.082}, pmid = {29929273}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Soil erosion caused by wind is a serious environmental problem that results in land degradation and threatens sustainable development. Accurately evaluating wind erosion dynamics is important for reducing the hazard of wind erosion. Separating the climatic and anthropogenic causes of wind erosion can improve the understanding of its driving mechanisms. Based on meteorological, remote sensing and field observation data, we applied the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) to simulate wind erosion in Inner Mongolia, China from 1990 to 2015. We used the variable control method by input of the average climate conditions to calculate human-induced wind erosion. The difference between natural wind erosion and human-induced wind erosion was determined to assess the effect of climate change on wind erosion. The results showed that the wind erosion modulus had a remarkable decline with a slope of 52.23 t/km2/a from 1990 to 2015. During 26 years, the average wind erosion for Inner Mongolia amounted to 63.32 billion tons. Wind erosion showed an overall significant decline of 49.23% and the partial severer erosion hazard significantly increased by 7.11%. Of the significant regional decline, 40.72% was caused by climate changes, and 8.51% was attributed to ecological restoration programs. For the significant regional increases of wind erosion, 4.29% was attributed to climate changes and 2.82% to human activities, mainly overgrazing and land use/cover changes. During the study, the driving forces in Inner Mongolia of wind erosion dynamics differed spatially. Timely monitoring based on multi-source data and highlighting the importance of positive human activities by increasing vegetation coverage for deserts, reducing grazing pressure on grasslands, establishing forests as windbreaks and optimizing crop planting rotations of farmlands can all act to reduce and control wind erosion.}, }
@article {pmid29929254, year = {2018}, author = {Rogora, M and Frate, L and Carranza, ML and Freppaz, M and Stanisci, A and Bertani, I and Bottarin, R and Brambilla, A and Canullo, R and Carbognani, M and Cerrato, C and Chelli, S and Cremonese, E and Cutini, M and Di Musciano, M and Erschbamer, B and Godone, D and Iocchi, M and Isabellon, M and Magnani, A and Mazzola, L and Morra di Cella, U and Pauli, H and Petey, M and Petriccione, B and Porro, F and Psenner, R and Rossetti, G and Scotti, A and Sommaruga, R and Tappeiner, U and Theurillat, JP and Tomaselli, M and Viglietti, D and Viterbi, R and Vittoz, P and Winkler, M and Matteucci, G}, title = {Assessment of climate change effects on mountain ecosystems through a cross-site analysis in the Alps and Apennines.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {624}, number = {}, pages = {1429-1442}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.155}, pmid = {29929254}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Mountain ecosystems are sensitive and reliable indicators of climate change. Long-term studies may be extremely useful in assessing the responses of high-elevation ecosystems to climate change and other anthropogenic drivers from a broad ecological perspective. Mountain research sites within the LTER (Long-Term Ecological Research) network are representative of various types of ecosystems and span a wide bioclimatic and elevational range. Here, we present a synthesis and a review of the main results from ecological studies in mountain ecosystems at 20 LTER sites in Italy, Switzerland and Austria covering in most cases more than two decades of observations. We analyzed a set of key climate parameters, such as temperature and snow cover duration, in relation to vascular plant species composition, plant traits, abundance patterns, pedoclimate, nutrient dynamics in soils and water, phenology and composition of freshwater biota. The overall results highlight the rapid response of mountain ecosystems to climate change, with site-specific characteristics and rates. As temperatures increased, vegetation cover in alpine and subalpine summits increased as well. Years with limited snow cover duration caused an increase in soil temperature and microbial biomass during the growing season. Effects on freshwater ecosystems were also observed, in terms of increases in solutes, decreases in nitrates and changes in plankton phenology and benthos communities. This work highlights the importance of comparing and integrating long-term ecological data collected in different ecosystems for a more comprehensive overview of the ecological effects of climate change. Nevertheless, there is a need for (i) adopting co-located monitoring site networks to improve our ability to obtain sound results from cross-site analysis, (ii) carrying out further studies, in particular short-term analyses with fine spatial and temporal resolutions to improve our understanding of responses to extreme events, and (iii) increasing comparability and standardizing protocols across networks to distinguish local patterns from global patterns.}, }
@article {pmid29929151, year = {2018}, author = {Liobikienė, G and Butkus, M}, title = {The challenges and opportunities of climate change policy under different stages of economic development.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {642}, number = {}, pages = {999-1007}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.140}, pmid = {29929151}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change policy confronts with many challenges and opportunities. Thus the aim of this study was to analyse the impact of gross domestic product (hereinafter GDP), trade, foreign direct investment (hereinafter FDI), energy efficiency (hereinafter EF) and renewable energy (hereinafter RE) consumption on greenhouse gas (hereinafter GHG) emissions in 1990-2013 and reveal the main challenges and opportunities of climate policy for which policy makers should take the most attention under different stages of economic development. The results showed that the economic growth significantly contributed to the increase of GHG emissions and remains the main challenge in all groups of countries. Analysing the trade impact on pollution, the results revealed that the growth of export (hereinafter EX) significantly reduced GHG emissions only in high income countries. However, the export remains a challenge in low income countries. FDI insignificantly determined the changes in GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Meanwhile, energy efficiency and share of renewable energy consumption are the main opportunities of climate change policy because they reduce the GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Thus, technological processes, the increase of energy efficiency and the shift from carbon to renewable energy sources are the main tools implementing the climate change policy in all countries despite the different stage of economic development.}, }
@article {pmid29929072, year = {2018}, author = {Luís, S and Lima, ML and Roseta-Palma, C and Rodrigues, N and P Sousa, L and Freitas, F and L Alves, F and Lillebø, AI and Parrod, C and Jolivet, V and Paramana, T and Alexandrakis, G and Poulos, S}, title = {Psychosocial drivers for change: Understanding and promoting stakeholder engagement in local adaptation to climate change in three European Mediterranean case studies.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {223}, number = {}, pages = {165-174}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.06.020}, pmid = {29929072}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Stakeholder engagement in the processes of planning local adaptation to climate change faces many challenges. The goal of this work was to explore whether or not the intention of engaging could be understood (Study 1) and promoted (Study 2), by using an extension of the theory of planned behaviour. In Study 1, stakeholders from three European Mediterranean case studies were surveyed: Baixo Vouga Lagunar (Portugal), SCOT Provence Méditerranée (France), and the island of Crete (Greece) (N = 115). Stakeholders' intention of engaging was significantly predicted by subjective norm (which was predicted by injunctive normative beliefs towards policy-makers and stakeholders) and by perceived behavioural control (which was predicted by knowledge of policy and instruments). Study 2 was conducted in the Baixo Vouga Lagunar case study and consisted of a two-workshop intervention where issues on local and regional adaptation, policies, and engagement were presented and discussed. A within-participants comparison of initial survey results with results following the workshops (NT1 = 12, NT2 = 15, NT3 = 12) indicated that these were successful in increasing stakeholders' intention of engaging. This increase was paired with a) an increase in injunctive normative beliefs towards policy-makers and consequently in subjective norm, and to b) a decrease in perceived complexity of planning local adaptation and an increase in knowledge regarding adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29927899, year = {2018}, author = {Grossman, E and Hathaway, M and Bush, KF and Cahillane, M and English, DQ and Holmes, T and Moran, CE and Uejio, CK and York, EA and Dorevitch, S}, title = {Minigrants to Local Health Departments: An Opportunity to Promote Climate Change Preparedness.}, journal = {Journal of public health management and practice : JPHMP}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/PHH.0000000000000826}, pmid = {29927899}, issn = {1550-5022}, abstract = {CONTEXT: Human health is threatened by climate change. While the public health workforce is concerned about climate change, local health department (LHD) administrators have reported insufficient knowledge and resources to address climate change. Minigrants from state to LHDs have been used to promote a variety of local public health initiatives.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To describe the minigrant approach used by state health departments implementing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework, to highlight successes of this approach in promoting climate change preparedness at LHDs, and to describe challenges encountered.<br><br>DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey and discussion.<br><br>INTERVENTION: State-level recipients of CDC funding issued minigrants to local public health entities to promote climate change preparedness, adaptation, and resilience.<br><br>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The amount of funding, number of LHDs funded per state, goals, selection process, evaluation process, outcomes, successes, and challenges of the minigrant programs.<br><br>RESULTS: Six state-level recipients of CDC funding for BRACE framework implementation awarded minigrants ranging from $7700 to $28 500 per year to 44 unique local jurisdictions. Common goals of the minigrants included capacity building, forging partnerships with entities outside of health departments, incorporating climate change information into existing programs, and developing adaptation plans. Recipients of minigrants reported increases in knowledge, engagement with diverse stakeholders, and the incorporation of climate change content into existing programs. Challenges included addressing climate change in regions where the topic is politically sensitive, as well as the uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of local projects beyond the term of minigrant support.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Minigrants can increase local public health capacity to address climate change. Jurisdictions that wish to utilize minigrant mechanisms to promote climate change adaptation and preparedness at the local level may benefit from the experience of the 6 states and 44 local health programs described.}, }
@article {pmid29920926, year = {2018}, author = {Matzrafi, M}, title = {Climate change exacerbates pest damage through reduced pesticide efficacy.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.5121}, pmid = {29920926}, issn = {1526-4998}, abstract = {Pesticide efficacy is strongly associated with environmental conditions. Conditional resistance defined as a reduction in pesticide sensitivity under changed environmental conditions has been widely detected under climatic changes such as elevated temperatures and CO2 enrichment. Given the effects of environmental conditions on pesticide sensitivity, many of the putative resistance reports made by farmers may be due to pesticide application followed by non-optimal environmental conditions rather than the evolution of resistance. This type of conditional resistance may be the result of phenotypic plasticity or epigenetic changes in response to environmental changes. Elevated temperatures and CO2 enrichment can directly lead to reduced pesticide efficacy by altering pesticide metabolism and translocation, or indirectly increasing pesticide detoxification in host-plants thus reducing pesticide availability for the target pest. Stress-related signal transduction pathways, as well as physiological changes, can both be associated with accelerated pesticide detoxification under climatic changes. The possibility for parallel mechanisms controlling these responses in different pest species should be considered. It is proposed that the same mechanisms leading to non-target site resistance in pests may also play a role in conditional resistance, suggesting we can predict the pesticides to which pests are likely to be less responsive under changing climatic conditions. Using adjuvants to improve pesticide translocation or reduce pesticide metabolism, alongside with new technologies such as using nanoparticles may result in higher pesticide functionality under the projected climate change. Exploring the physiological, transcriptional and biochemical basis underlying conditional resistance is crucial in maintaining future pest management under changing environmental conditions. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid29916353, year = {2018}, author = {Tavares, A}, title = {[The Impact of Climate Change on Health].}, journal = {Acta medica portuguesa}, volume = {31}, number = {5}, pages = {241-242}, doi = {10.20344/amp.10473}, pmid = {29916353}, issn = {1646-0758}, }
@article {pmid29913597, year = {2018}, author = {Whitehead, PG and Jin, L and Macadam, I and Janes, T and Sarkar, S and Rodda, HJE and Sinha, R and Nicholls, RJ}, title = {Modelling impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Meghna, Hooghly and Mahanadi river systems in India and Bangladesh.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {636}, number = {}, pages = {1362-1372}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.362}, pmid = {29913597}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River System, the associated Hooghly River and the Mahanadi River System represent the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 780 million. The rivers are of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as they provide fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and support the Delta System in the Bay of Bengal. Future changes in both climate and socio-economics have been investigated to assess whether these will alter river flows and water quality. Climate datasets downscaled from three different Global Climate Models have been used to drive a daily process based flow and water quality model. The results suggest that due to climate change the flows will increase in the monsoon period and also be enhanced in the dry season. However, once socio-economic changes are also considered, increased population, irrigation, water use and industrial development reduce water availability in drought conditions, threatening water supplies and posing a threat to river and coastal ecosystems. This study, as part of the DECCMA (Deltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation) project, also addresses water quality issues, particularly nutrients (N and P) and their transport along the rivers and discharge into the Delta System. Climate will alter flows, increasing flood flows and changing pollution dilution factors in the rivers, as well as other key processes controlling water quality. Socio-economic change will affect water quality, as water diversion strategies, increased population and industrial development alter the water balance and enhance fluxes of nutrients from agriculture, urban centers and atmospheric deposition.}, }
@article {pmid29912888, year = {2018}, author = {Morrison, M and Parton, K and Hine, DW}, title = {Increasing belief but issue fatigue: Changes in Australian Household Climate Change Segments between 2011 and 2016.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {e0197988}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0197988}, pmid = {29912888}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Using national Australian samples collected in 2011 (n = 1927) and 2016 (n = 2503), we identified six Australian household segments which we labelled Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful and Dismissive. Between the two periods, we found the proportion of households in the Alarmed and Concerned segments was stable; however there was a decrease (28% to 20%) in the proportion of households in the Doubtful and Dismissive segments and an increase (27% to 33%) in the Cautious and Disengaged segments. We found that a greater proportion of households have personally experienced climate change, and were more likely to believe in human causation and believe that there is a scientific consensus about the issue. However, there was evidence of issue fatigue. Households were less likely to report that they had thought about climate change or talked about it with their friends in 2016 relative to 2011. They were also less likely to pursue certain climate friendly behaviours or reward or punish companies for their climate behaviours. These findings suggest a need to motivate households to maintain efforts to mitigate climate change, particularly the Cautious and Disengaged households that are more amenable to changing their views about this issue.}, }
@article {pmid29909329, year = {2018}, author = {Madrigal-González, J and Andivia, E and Zavala, MA and Stoffel, M and Calatayud, J and Sánchez-Salguero, R and Ballesteros-Cánovas, J}, title = {Disentangling the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {642}, number = {}, pages = {619-628}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.064}, pmid = {29909329}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change can impair ecosystem functions and services in extensive dry forests worldwide. However, attribution of climate change impacts on tree growth and forest productivity is challenging due to multiple inter-annual patterns of climatic variability associated with atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Moreover, growth responses to rising atmospheric CO2, namely carbon fertilization, as well as size ontogenetic changes can obscure the climate change signature as well. Here we apply Structural Equation Models (SEM) to investigate the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment (i.e., extreme in terms of the combination of sandy-unconsolidated soils and climatic aridity). Specifically, we analyzed potential direct and indirect pathways by which different sources of climatic variability (i.e. warming and precipitation trends, the North Atlantic Oscillation, [NAO]; the Mediterranean Oscillation, [MOI]; the Atlantic Mediterranean Oscillation, [AMO]) affect aridity through their control on local climate (in terms of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation), and subsequently tree productivity, in terms of basal area increments (BAI). Our results support the predominant role of Diameter at Breast Height (DHB) as the main growth driver. In terms of climate, NAO and AMO are the most important drivers of tree growth through their control of aridity (via effects of precipitation and temperature, respectively). Furthermore and contrary to current expectations, our findings also support a net positive role of climate warming on growth over the last 50 years and suggest that impacts of climate warming should be evaluated considering multi-annual and multi-decadal periods of local climate defined by atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic.}, }
@article {pmid29909326, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, X and Sun, W and Li, P and Mu, X and Gao, P and Zhao, G}, title = {Reduced sediment transport in the Chinese Loess Plateau due to climate change and human activities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {642}, number = {}, pages = {591-600}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.061}, pmid = {29909326}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The sediment load on the Chinese Loess Plateau has sharply decreased in recent years. However, the contribution of terrace construction and vegetation restoration projects to sediment discharge reduction remains uncertain. In this paper, eight catchments located in the Loess Plateau were chosen to explore the effects of different driving factors on sediment discharge changes during the period from the 1960s to 2012. Attribution approaches were applied to evaluate the effects of climate, terrace, and vegetation coverage changes on sediment discharge. The results showed that the annual sediment discharge decreased significantly in all catchments ranging from -0.007 to -0.039 Gt·yr-1. Sediment discharge in most tributaries has shown abrupt changes since 1996, and the total sediment discharge was reduced by 60.1% during 1997-2012. We determined that increasing vegetation coverage was the primary factor driving the reductions in sediment loads since 1996 and accounted for 47.7% of the total reduction. Climate variability and terrace construction accounted for 9.1% and 18.6% of sediment discharge reductions, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid29909324, year = {2018}, author = {El Jaouhari, N and Abouabdillah, A and Bouabid, R and Bourioug, M and Aleya, L and Chaoui, M}, title = {Assessment of sustainable deficit irrigation in a Moroccan apple orchard as a climate change adaptation strategy.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {642}, number = {}, pages = {574-581}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.108}, pmid = {29909324}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study was conducted over three consecutive years, 2015, 2016 and 2017, in the Imouzzer Kander region located in northwestern Morocco. The main objective is to evaluate apple tree responses to two sustainable deficit irrigation strategies with 75% (T2) and 50% (T3) of calculated crop evapotranspiration (ETc), compared to a control irrigated with 100% ETc (T1). During the three experiment years, estimated reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was 630, 684 and 728 mm, respectively, in 2015, 2016 and 2017. Under the two restricted regimes, shoot length and fruit size evolution were not significantly affected. During the fruit set of 2017, no significant effects of sustainable deficit irrigation on the relative water content were observed, whereas they increased significantly during the fruit-swelling stage for the T3 treatment. Likewise, net CO2 assimilation (An) was not affected by the irrigation dose, whereas it increased significantly and inversely proportional to the amount of applied water during fruit swelling. Thus, under our experimental conditions, the trees subjected to extreme deficit irrigation (T3) were not stressed at either stage. Moreover, deficit irrigation at 75% ETc increased apple yield significantly. In contrast, deficit irrigation at 50% ETc throughout the cycle was not enough to maintain an acceptable fruit size for the three studied campaigns. However, the best qualitative performance, notably for fruit firmness and sugar content, was attributed to this irrigation regime (T3).}, }
@article {pmid29907247, year = {2018}, author = {Gronlund, CJ and Sullivan, KP and Kefelegn, Y and Cameron, L and O'Neill, MS}, title = {Climate change and temperature extremes: A review of heat- and cold-related morbidity and mortality concerns of municipalities.}, journal = {Maturitas}, volume = {114}, number = {}, pages = {54-59}, doi = {10.1016/j.maturitas.2018.06.002}, pmid = {29907247}, issn = {1873-4111}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Cities ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Heating ; Hot Temperature ; *Housing ; Humans ; Michigan ; Seasons ; Survival Rate ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Cold and hot weather are associated with mortality and morbidity. Although the burden of temperature-associated mortality may shift towards high temperatures in the future, cold temperatures may represent a greater current-day problem in temperate cities. Hot and cold temperature vulnerabilities may coincide across several personal and neighborhood characteristics, suggesting opportunities for increasing present and future resilience to extreme temperatures. We present a narrative literature review encompassing the epidemiology of cold- and heat-related mortality and morbidity, related physiologic and environmental mechanisms, and municipal responses to hot and cold weather, illustrated by Detroit, Michigan, USA, a financially burdened city in an economically diverse metropolitan area. The Detroit area experiences sharp increases in mortality and hospitalizations with extreme heat, while cold temperatures are associated with more gradual increases in mortality, with no clear threshold. Interventions such as heating and cooling centers may reduce but not eliminate temperature-associated health problems. Furthermore, direct hemodynamic responses to cold, sudden exertion, poor indoor air quality and respiratory epidemics likely contribute to cold-related mortality. Short- and long-term interventions to enhance energy and housing security and housing quality may reduce temperature-related health problems. Extreme temperatures can increase morbidity and mortality in municipalities like Detroit that experience both extreme heat and prolonged cold seasons amidst large socioeconomic disparities. The similarities in physiologic and built-environment vulnerabilities to both hot and cold weather suggest prioritization of strategies that address both present-day cold and near-future heat concerns.}, }
@article {pmid29904536, year = {2018}, author = {Parker, CT and Cockerham, D and Foss, AW}, title = {Communicating Climate Change: Lessons Learned from a Researcher-Museum Collaboration.}, journal = {Journal of microbiology &amp; biology education}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1128/jmbe.v19i1.1499}, pmid = {29904536}, issn = {1935-7877}, abstract = {The need for science education and outreach is great. However, despite the ever-growing body of available scientific information, facts are often misrepresented to or misunderstood by the general public. This can result in uninformed decisions that negatively impact society at both individual and community levels. One solution to this problem is to make scientific information more available to the public through outreach programs. Most outreach programs, however, focus on health initiatives, STEM programs, or young audiences exclusively. This article describes a collaboration between the Research and Learning Center at the Fort Worth Museum of Science and History and an interdisciplinary team of researchers from the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex area. The collaboration was a pilot effort of a science communication fellowship and was designed to train researchers to effectively convey current science information to the public with a focus on lifelong learning. We focus on the broader idea of a university-museum collaboration that bridges the science communication gap as we outline the process of forming this collaboration, lessons we learned from the process, and directions that can support future collaborations.}, }
@article {pmid29901813, year = {2018}, author = {Senapati, N and Stratonovitch, P and Paul, MJ and Semenov, MA}, title = {Drought Tolerance during Reproductive Development is Important for Increasing wheat yield Potential under Climate change in Europe.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/ery226}, pmid = {29901813}, issn = {1460-2431}, abstract = {Drought stress during reproductive development could drastically reduce grain number and wheat yield, but quantitative evaluation of such effect is unknown under climate change. The objectives of this study were to a) evaluate potential yield benefits of drought tolerance during reproductive development for wheat ideotypes under climate change in Europe, and b) identify potential cultivar parameters for improvement. We used the Sirius wheat model to optimise drought tolerant (DT) and drought sensitive (DS) wheat ideotypes under future 2050 climate scenario at 13 contrasting sites, representing major wheat growing regions in Europe. Averaged over the sites, DT ideotypes achieved 13.4% greater yield compared to DS, with the double yield stability for DT. However, the performances of the ideotypes were site dependent. Mean yield of DT was 28-37% greater compared to DS in southern Europe. In contrast, no yield difference (≤ 1%) between ideotypes was found in north-western Europe. An intermediate yield benefit of 10-23% was found due to drought tolerance in central and eastern Europe. We conclude that tolerance to drought stress during reproductive development is important for high yield potentials and greater yield stability of wheat under climate change in Europe.}, }
@article {pmid29899493, year = {2018}, author = {Brooks, CM and Ainley, DG and Abrams, PA and Dayton, PK and Hofman, RJ and Jacquet, J and Siniff, DB}, title = {Antarctic fisheries: factor climate change into their management.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {558}, number = {7709}, pages = {177-180}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05372-x}, pmid = {29899493}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid29899341, year = {2018}, author = {Han, Z and Song, W and Deng, X and Xu, X}, title = {Grassland ecosystem responses to climate change and human activities within the Three-River Headwaters region of China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {9079}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-27150-5}, pmid = {29899341}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Three-River Headwaters region (TRHR) of China is an important part of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Although the TRHR is rich in grassland resources, the ecosystem of this area is extremely fragile. Natural and artificial interference have been key to the development of grassland ecosystem spatiotemporal heterogeneity, although the intensity and mode of their influence on ecological processes varies depending on scale; analyses in this area are therefore also scale-dependent. We use multi-scale nested data to analyze the mechanisms underlying the influence of climate change and human activities on grassland net primary productivity (NPP) by applying a multi-level modeling approach. The results of this study show that: (1) The annual grassland NPP of the TRHR has risen in a wavelike pattern over time, increasing by 39.88% overall; (2) Differences of 54.9% and 41.1% in temporal grassland NPP can be attributed to variations between these watersheds as well as county characteristics, and; (3) Although the 'warm and moist' climate trend seen over the course of this study has proved beneficial in enhancing grassland NPP, the rate of increase has tended to be faster in relatively dry and warm regions. Economic development and population growth have both exerted negative impacts on grassland NPP.}, }
@article {pmid29897977, year = {2018}, author = {Ameztegui, A and Solarik, KA and Parkins, JR and Houle, D and Messier, C and Gravel, D}, title = {Perceptions of climate change across the Canadian forest sector: The key factors of institutional and geographical environment.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {e0197689}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0197689}, pmid = {29897977}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Assessing the perception of key stakeholders within the forest sector is critical to evaluating their readiness to engage in adapting to climate change. Here, we report the results of the most comprehensive survey carried out in the Canadian forestry sector to date regarding perceptions of climate change. A total of 1158 individuals, representing a wide range of stakeholders across the five most important forestry provinces in Canada, were asked about climate change, its impact on forest ecosystems, and the suitability of current forest management for addressing future impacts. Overall, we found that respondents were more concerned about climate change than the general population. More than 90% of respondents agreed with the anthropogenic origins of climate change, and > 50% considered it a direct threat to their welfare. Political view was the main driver of general beliefs about the causes of climate change and its future consequences, while the province of origin proved to be the best predictor of perceived current impacts on forest ecosystems and its associated risks; and type of stakeholder was the main driver of perceived need for adaptation. Industrial stakeholders were the most skeptical about the anthropogenic cause(s) of climate change (18% disagreed with this statement, compared to an average of 8% in the other stakeholders), its impacts on forest ecosystems (28% for industry vs. 10% for other respondents), and the need for new management practices (18% vs. 7%). Although the degree of awareness and the willingness to implement adaptive practices were high even for the most skeptical groups, our study identified priority sectors or areas for action when designing awareness campaigns. We suggest that the design of a strategic framework for implementing climate adaptation within the Canadian forest sector should focus on the relationship between climate change and changes in disturbance regimes, and above all on the economic consequences of these changes, but it should also take into account the positions shown by each of the actors in each province.}, }
@article {pmid29888141, year = {2018}, author = {Iannella, M and Cerasoli, F and D'Alessandro, P and Console, G and Biondi, M}, title = {Coupling GIS spatial analysis and Ensemble Niche Modelling to investigate climate change-related threats to the Sicilian pond turtle Emys trinacris, an endangered species from the Mediterranean.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e4969}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.4969}, pmid = {29888141}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {The pond turtle Emys trinacris is an endangered endemic species of Sicily showing a fragmented distribution throughout the main island. In this study, we applied &quot;Ensemble Niche Modelling&quot;, combining more classical statistical techniques as Generalized Linear Models and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines with machine-learning approaches as Boosted Regression Trees and Maxent, to model the potential distribution of the species under current and future climatic conditions. Moreover, a &quot;gap analysis&quot; performed on both the species' presence sites and the predictions from the Ensemble Models is proposed to integrate outputs from these models, in order to assess the conservation status of this threatened species in the context of biodiversity management. For this aim, four &quot;Representative Concentration Pathways&quot;, corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissions trajectories were considered to project the obtained models to both 2050 and 2070. Areas lost, gained or remaining stable for the target species in the projected models were calculated. E. trinacris' potential distribution resulted to be significantly dependent upon precipitation-linked variables, mainly precipitation of wettest and coldest quarter. Future negative effects for the conservation of this species, because of more unstable precipitation patterns and extreme meteorological events, emerged from our analyses. Further, the sites currently inhabited by E. trinacris are, for more than a half, out of the Protected Areas network, highlighting an inadequate management of the species by the authorities responsible for its protection. Our results, therefore, suggest that in the next future the Sicilian pond turtle will need the utmost attention by the scientific community to avoid the imminent risk of extinction. Finally, the gap analysis performed in GIS environment resulted to be a very informative post-modeling technique, potentially applicable to the management of species at risk and to Protected Areas' planning in many contexts.}, }
@article {pmid29886957, year = {2018}, author = {Soares, MO}, title = {Climate change and regional human pressures as challenges for management in oceanic islands, South Atlantic.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {131}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {347-355}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.04.008}, pmid = {29886957}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {This study aimed to determine the main anthropogenic pressures and the effectiveness of management practices in marine protected areas (MPAs) (Rocas Atoll and Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, South Atlantic). The MPAs exhibited high management effectiveness over the last 25 years due to the control of local pressures (i.e., fishing and tourism). However, the increase in regional and global pressures, such as invasive species, marine debris, and climate change stressors (sea-level rise, extreme events, range shifts of species, warming, and ocean acidification), are environmental risks that need to be considered during conservation. Strategies for large scale marine spatial planning, as well as proposals for an integrated management of MPAs (including coral reef islands and seamounts) by the articulation of a network, which reduces regional human pressures and improves ocean governance were discussed. This study provided insights into the challenges faced in the management of MPAs in a rapidly changing ocean.}, }
@article {pmid29885223, year = {2017}, author = {Ossa, PG and Armesto, JJ and Pérez, F}, title = {Assessing the influence of life form and life cycle on the response of desert plants to past climate change: Genetic diversity patterns of an herbaceous lineage of Nolana along western South America.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {104}, number = {10}, pages = {1533-1545}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1700101}, pmid = {29885223}, issn = {1537-2197}, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Plant responses to past climate change could have been shaped by life-history traits. Here we explore the influence of life form on the response of xerophytic plants to Quaternary climate fluctuations, through a comparison of genetic patterns of codistributed herbaceous and shrubby lineages of the genus Nolana.<br><br>METHODS: We reconstructed the phylogeographic history of a herbaceous lineage of three species of Nolana distributed from a northern arid zone (30°S) to a southern wet-temperate (42°S) zone, by sequencing two cpDNA regions. Results were compared with similar data published earlier for a congeneric, codistributed shrubby lineage.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: We detected significant genetic differentiation among populations. Divergence of all haplotypes occurred during the Pleistocene, between 245 and 62 kyr ago. For both the shrubby and herbaceous lineages, the greatest haplotype diversity was found in their northern range. However, herbs also retained some diversity at higher latitude. Herbaceous populations were less genetically structured and less differentiated than shrubby ones.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Genetic evidence revealed that both lineages of Nolana survived climate change through the Quaternary, experiencing population collapses and recoveries. Phylogeographic histories present similarities between the two lineages, but also marked differences that can be explained by their differences in life form and life cycle. While the shrubby lineage followed the classical pattern of postglacial expansion toward higher latitudes, species in the herbaceous lineage showed evidence of long-lasting persistence at the southern edge of their current range, suggesting for the first time multiple glacial refugia for a xerophytic plant in southern South America.}, }
@article {pmid29881451, year = {2018}, author = {Hayes, K and Blashki, G and Wiseman, J and Burke, S and Reifels, L}, title = {Climate change and mental health: risks, impacts and priority actions.}, journal = {International journal of mental health systems}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {28}, doi = {10.1186/s13033-018-0210-6}, pmid = {29881451}, issn = {1752-4458}, abstract = {Background: This article provides an overview of the current and projected climate change risks and impacts to mental health and provides recommendations for priority actions to address the mental health consequences of climate change.<br><br>Discussion and conclusion: The authors argue the following three points: firstly, while attribution of mental health outcomes to specific climate change risks remains challenging, there are a number of opportunities available to advance the field of mental health and climate change with more empirical research in this domain; secondly, the risks and impacts of climate change on mental health are already rapidly accelerating, resulting in a number of direct, indirect, and overarching effects that disproportionally affect those who are most marginalized; and, thirdly, interventions to address climate change and mental health need to be coordinated and rooted in active hope in order to tackle the problem in a holistic manner. This discussion paper concludes with recommendations for priority actions to address the mental health consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29881244, year = {2018}, author = {Sato, KN and Powell, J and Rudie, D and Levin, LA and , }, title = {Evaluating the promise and pitfalls of a potential climate change-tolerant sea urchin fishery in southern California.}, journal = {ICES journal of marine science : journal du conseil}, volume = {75}, number = {3}, pages = {1029-1041}, doi = {10.1093/icesjms/fsx225}, pmid = {29881244}, issn = {1054-3139}, support = {T34 GM008228/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Marine fishery stakeholders are beginning to consider and implement adaptation strategies in the face of growing consumer demand and potential deleterious climate change impacts such as ocean warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation. This study investigates the potential for development of a novel climate change-tolerant sea urchin fishery in southern California based on Strongylocentrotus fragilis (pink sea urchin), a deep-sea species whose peak density was found to coincide with a current trap-based spot prawn fishery (Pandalus platyceros) in the 200-300-m depth range. Here we outline potential criteria for a climate change-tolerant fishery by examining the distribution, life-history attributes, and marketable qualities of S. fragilis in southern California. We provide evidence of seasonality of gonad production and demonstrate that peak gonad production occurs in the winter season. S. fragilis likely spawns in the spring season as evidenced by consistent minimum gonad indices in the spring/summer seasons across 4 years of sampling (2012-2016). The resiliency of S. fragilis to predicted future increases in acidity and decreases in oxygen was supported by high species abundance, albeit reduced relative growth rate estimates at water depths (485-510 m) subject to low oxygen (11.7-16.9 µmol kg-1) and pHTotal (<7.44), which may provide assurances to stakeholders and managers regarding the suitability of this species for commercial exploitation. Some food quality properties of the S. fragilis roe (e.g. colour, texture) were comparable with those of the commercially exploited shallow-water red sea urchin (Mesocentrotus franciscanus), while other qualities (e.g. 80% reduced gonad size by weight) limit the potential future marketability of S. fragilis. This case study highlights the potential future challenges and drawbacks of climate-tolerant fishery development in an attempt to inform future urchin fishery stakeholders.}, }
@article {pmid29879829, year = {2018}, author = {Wanapat, M and Mapato, C}, title = {New roughage source of Pennisetum purpureum cv. Mahasarakham utilization for ruminants feeding under global climate change.}, journal = {Asian-Australasian journal of animal sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.5713/ajas.18.0210}, pmid = {29879829}, issn = {1011-2367}, abstract = {Objective: As the climate changes, it influences ruminant's feed intake, nutrient digestibility, rumen methane production and emission. This experiment aimed to evaluate the effect of feeding Sweet grass (Pennisetum purpureum cv. Mahasarakham) as a new source of good quality forage to improve feed utilization efficiency and to mitigate rumen methane production and emission.<br><br>Methods: Four, growing crossbred of Holstein Friesian heifers, 14 months old, were arranged in a 4 x 4 Latin square design to receive four dietary treatments. Treatment 1 (T1) was rice straw (RS) fed on ad libitum with 1.0 % BW of concentrate (C) supplementation (RS/1.0C). Treatment 2 (T2) and treatment 3 (T3) were Sweet grass (SG), fed on ad libitum with 1.0 and 0.5 %BW of concentrate supplementation, respectively (SG/1.0C and SG/0.5C, respectively). Treatment 4 (T4) was total Sweet grass fed on ad libitum basis with non-concentrate supplementation (TSG).<br><br>Results: The results revealed that roughage and total feed intake were increased with SG when compared to RS (P<0.01) while TSG was similar to RS/1.0C treatment. Digestibility of nutrients, nutrients intake, total VFAs, rumen microorganisms were the highest and CH4 was the lowest in the heifers received SG/1.0C (P<0.01). Total DM feed intake, digestibility and intake of nutrients, total VFAs, NH3-N, bacterial and fungal population of animals receiving SG/0.5C were higher than those fed on RS/1.0C. Reducing of concentrate supplementation with SG as a roughage source increased NH3-N, acetic acid, and fungal populations, but it decreased propionic acid and protozoal populations (P<0.05). However, ruminal pH and blood urea nitrogen were not affected by the dietary treatments (P>0.05).<br><br>Conclusion: As the results, Sweet grass could be a good forage to improve rumen fermentation, decrease methane production and reduced the level of concentrate supplementation for growing ruminants in the tropics especially under global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29876087, year = {2018}, author = {Salas, EAL and Valdez, R and Michel, S and Boykin, KG}, title = {Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {5124-5138}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4103}, pmid = {29876087}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Identifying the factors predicting the high-elevation suitable habitats of Central Asian argali wild sheep and how these suitable habitats are affected by the changing climate regimes could help address conservation and management efforts and identify future critical habitat for the species in eastern Tajikistan. This study used environmental niche models (ENMs) to map and compare potential present and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for Marco Polo argali. Argali occurrence points were collected during field surveys conducted from 2009 to 2016. Our models showed that terrain ruggedness and annual mean temperature had strong correlations on argali distribution. We then used two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two future time periods (2050 and 2070) to model the impacts of climate change on Marco Polo argali habitat. Results indicated a decline of suitable habitat with majority of losses observed at lower elevations (3,300-4,300 m). Models that considered all variables (climatic and nonclimatic) predicted losses of present suitable areas of 60.6% (6,928 km2) and 63.2% (7,219 km2) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Results also showed averaged habitat gains of 46.2% (6,106 km2) at much higher elevations (4,500-6,900 m) and that elevational shifts of habitat use could occur in the future. Our results could provide information for conservation planning for this near threatened species in the region.}, }
@article {pmid29873062, year = {2018}, author = {Nguyen, GH and Andersen, LK and Davis, MDP}, title = {Climate change and atopic dermatitis: is there a link?.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.14016}, pmid = {29873062}, issn = {1365-4632}, abstract = {Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic relapsing inflammatory skin disease with a growing health concern, because of its high prevalence and associated low quality of life. The etiology of AD is multifactorial with interaction between various factors such as genetic predisposition, immune, and importantly, environmental factors. Since climate change is associated with a profound shift in environmental factors, we suggest that AD is being influenced by climate change. This review highlights the effects of ultraviolet light, temperature, humidity, pollens, air pollutants, and their interaction between them contributing to the epidemiology and pathophysiology of AD.}, }
@article {pmid29868293, year = {2018}, author = {Castillo, AG and Alò, D and González, BA and Samaniego, H}, title = {Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e4907}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.4907}, pmid = {29868293}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background: The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco (Lama guanicoe), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species (L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe).<br><br>Methods: We used maximum entropy to model lineage's climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests.<br><br>Results: We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages.<br><br>Discussion: Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid29868106, year = {2018}, author = {Manzoor, SA and Griffiths, G and Iizuka, K and Lukac, M}, title = {Land Cover and Climate Change May Limit Invasiveness of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {664}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.00664}, pmid = {29868106}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Invasive plant species represent a serious threat to biodiversity precipitating a sustained global effort to eradicate or at least control the spread of this phenomenon. Current distribution ranges of many invasive species are likely to be modified in the future by land cover and climate change. Thus, invasion management can be made more effective by forecasting the potential spread of invasive species. Rhododendron ponticum (L.) is an aggressive invasive species which appears well suited to western areas of the UK. We made use of MAXENT modeling environment to develop a current distribution model and to assess the likely effects of land cover and climatic conditions (LCCs) on the future distribution of this species in the Snowdonia National park in Wales. Six global circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), together with a land cover simulation for 2050 were used to investigate species' response to future environmental conditions. Having considered a range of environmental variables as predictors and carried out the AICc-based model selection, we find that under all LCCs considered in this study, the range of R. ponticum in Wales is likely to contract in the future. Land cover and topographic variables were found to be the most important predictors of the distribution of R. ponticum. This information, together with maps indicating future distribution trends will aid the development of mitigation practices to control R. ponticum.}, }
@article {pmid29867087, year = {2018}, author = {Shi, Z and Crowell, S and Luo, Y and Moore, B}, title = {Model structures amplify uncertainty in predicted soil carbon responses to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2171}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-04526-9}, pmid = {29867087}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Large model uncertainty in projected future soil carbon (C) dynamics has been well documented. However, our understanding of the sources of this uncertainty is limited. Here we quantify the uncertainties arising from model parameters, structures and their interactions, and how those uncertainties propagate through different models to projections of future soil carbon stocks. Both the vertically resolved model and the microbial explicit model project much greater uncertainties to climate change than the conventional soil C model, with both positive and negative C-climate feedbacks, whereas the conventional model consistently predicts positive soil C-climate feedback. Our findings suggest that diverse model structures are necessary to increase confidence in soil C projection. However, the larger uncertainty in the complex models also suggests that we need to strike a balance between model complexity and the need to include diverse model structures in order to forecast soil C dynamics with high confidence and low uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid29866444, year = {2018}, author = {Rötter, RP and Hoffmann, MP and Koch, M and Müller, C}, title = {Progress in modelling agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in plant biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2018.05.009}, pmid = {29866444}, issn = {1879-0356}, abstract = {Modelling is a key tool to explore agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change. Here we report recent progress made especially referring to the large project initiatives MACSUR and AgMIP; in particular, in modelling potential crop impacts from field to global using multi-model ensembles. We identify two main fields where further progress is necessary: a more mechanistic understanding of climate impacts and management options for adaptation and mitigation; and focusing on cropping systems and integrative multi-scale assessments instead of single season and crops, especially in complex tropical and neglected but important cropping systems. Stronger linking of experimentation with statistical and eco-physiological crop modelling could facilitate the necessary methodological advances.}, }
@article {pmid29864744, year = {2018}, author = {Espeland, EK and Kettenring, KM}, title = {Strategic plant choices can alleviate climate change impacts: A review.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {222}, number = {}, pages = {316-324}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.05.042}, pmid = {29864744}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) uses biodiversity and ecosystem services to reduce climate change impacts to local communities. Because plants can alleviate the abiotic and biotic stresses of climate change, purposeful plant choices could improve adaptation. However, there has been no systematic review of how plants can be applied to alleviate effects of climate change. Here we describe how plants can modify climate change effects by altering biological and physical processes. Plant effects range from increasing soil stabilization to reducing the impact of flooding and storm surges. Given the global scale of plant-related activities such as farming, landscaping, forestry, conservation, and restoration, plants can be selected strategically-i.e., planting and maintaining particular species with desired impacts-to simultaneously restore degraded ecosystems, conserve ecosystem function, and help alleviate effects of climate change. Plants are a tool for EbA that should be more broadly and strategically utilized.}, }
@article {pmid29864667, year = {2018}, author = {Li, H and Chen, H and Wang, H and Yu, E}, title = {Future precipitation changes over China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming targets by using CORDEX regional climate models.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {640-641}, number = {}, pages = {543-554}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.324}, pmid = {29864667}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study aims to characterize future changes in precipitation extremes over China based on regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-East Asia project. The results of five RCMs involved in CORDEX-East Asia project that driven by HadGEM2-AO are compared with the simulation of CMA-RegCM driven by BCC-CSM1.1. Eleven precipitation extreme indices that developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices are employed to evaluate precipitation extreme changes over China. Generally, RCMs can reproduce their spatiotemporal characteristics over China in comparison with observations. For future climate projections, RCMs indicate that both the occurrence and intensity of precipitation extremes in most regions of China will increase when the global temperature increases by 1.5/2.0 °C. The yearly maximum five-day precipitation (RX5D) averaged over China is reported to increase by 4.4% via the CMA-RegCM under the 1.5 °C warming in comparison with the baseline period (1986-2005); however, a relatively large increase of 11.1% is reported by the multi-model ensemble median (MME) when using the other five models. Furthermore, the reoccurring risks of precipitation extremes over most regions of China will further increase due to the additional 0.5 °C warming. For example, RX5D will further increase by approximately 8.9% over NWC, 3.8% over NC, 2.3% over SC, and approximately 1.0% over China. Extremes, such as the historical 20-year return period event of yearly maximum one-day precipitation (RX1D) and RX5D, will become more frequent, with occurrences happening once every 8.8 years (RX1D) and 11.5 years (RX5D) under the 1.5 °C warming target, and there will be two fewer years due to the additional 0.5 °C warming. In addition, the intensity of these events will increase by approximately 9.2% (8.5%) under the 1.5 °C warming target and 12.6% (11.0%) under the 2.0 °C warming target for RX1D (RX5D).}, }
@article {pmid29863771, year = {2018}, author = {Chappelka, AH and Neufeld, HS}, title = {A link between physical and chemical climate change: the enhancement of vegetative water loss by atmospheric aerosols.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {219}, number = {1}, pages = {9-11}, doi = {10.1111/nph.15193}, pmid = {29863771}, issn = {1469-8137}, }
@article {pmid29862336, year = {2018}, author = {Nursey-Bray, M and Palmer, R}, title = {Country, climate change adaptation and colonisation: insights from an Indigenous adaptation planning process, Australia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {e00565}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2018.e00565}, pmid = {29862336}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Indigenous peoples are going to be disproportionately affected by climate change. Developing tailored, place based, and culturally appropriate solutions will be necessary. Yet finding cultural and institutional 'fit' within and between competing values-based climate and environmental management governance regimes remains an ongoing challenge. This paper reports on a collaborative research project with the Arabana people of central Australia, that resulted in the production of the first Indigenous community-based climate change adaptation strategy in Australia. We aimed to try and understand what conditions are needed to support Indigenous driven adaptation initiatives, if there are any cultural differences that need accounting for and how, once developed they be integrated into existing governance arrangements. Our analysis found that climate change adaptation is based on the centrality of the connection to 'country' (traditional land), it needs to be aligned with cultural values, and focus on the building of adaptive capacity. We find that the development of climate change adaptation initiatives cannot be divorced from the historical context of how the Arabana experienced and collectively remember colonisation. We argue that in developing culturally responsive climate governance for and with Indigenous peoples, that that the history of colonisation and the ongoing dominance of entrenched Western governance regimes needs acknowledging and redressing into contemporary environmental/climate management.}, }
@article {pmid29861837, year = {2018}, author = {Kooperman, GJ and Pritchard, MS and O'Brien, TA and Timmermans, BW}, title = {Rainfall From Resolved Rather Than Parameterized Processes Better Represents the Present-Day and Climate Change Response of Moderate Rates in the Community Atmosphere Model.}, journal = {Journal of advances in modeling earth systems}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {971-988}, doi = {10.1002/2017MS001188}, pmid = {29861837}, issn = {1942-2466}, abstract = {Deficiencies in the parameterizations of convection used in global climate models often lead to a distorted representation of the simulated rainfall intensity distribution (i.e., too much rainfall from weak rain rates). While encouraging improvements in high percentile rainfall intensity have been found as the horizontal resolution of the Community Atmosphere Model is increased to ∼25 km, we demonstrate no corresponding improvement in the moderate rain rates that generate the majority of accumulated rainfall. Using a statistical framework designed to emphasize links between precipitation intensity and accumulated rainfall beyond just the frequency distribution, we show that CAM cannot realistically simulate moderate rain rates, and cannot capture their intensification with climate change, even as resolution is increased. However, by separating the parameterized convective and large-scale resolved contributions to total rainfall, we find that the intensity, geographic pattern, and climate change response of CAM's large-scale rain rates are more consistent with observations (TRMM 3B42), superparameterization, and theoretical expectations, despite issues with parameterized convection. Increasing CAM's horizontal resolution does improve the representation of total rainfall intensity, but not due to changes in the intensity of large-scale rain rates, which are surprisingly insensitive to horizontal resolution. Rather, improvements occur through an increase in the relative contribution of the large-scale component to the total amount of accumulated rainfall. Analysis of sensitivities to convective timescale and entrainment rate confirm the importance of these parameters in the possible development of scale-aware parameterizations, but also reveal unrecognized trade-offs from the entanglement of precipitation frequency and total amount.}, }
@article {pmid29860010, year = {2018}, author = {Holmberg, M and Aherne, J and Austnes, K and Beloica, J and De Marco, A and Dirnböck, T and Fornasier, MF and Goergen, K and Futter, M and Lindroos, AJ and Krám, P and Neirynck, J and Nieminen, TM and Pecka, T and Posch, M and Pröll, G and Rowe, EC and Scheuschner, T and Schlutow, A and Valinia, S and Forsius, M}, title = {Modelling study of soil C, N and pH response to air pollution and climate change using European LTER site observations.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {640-641}, number = {}, pages = {387-399}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.299}, pmid = {29860010}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Current climate warming is expected to continue in coming decades, whereas high N deposition may stabilize, in contrast to the clear decrease in S deposition. These pressures have distinctive regional patterns and their resulting impact on soil conditions is modified by local site characteristics. We have applied the VSD+ soil dynamic model to study impacts of deposition and climate change on soil properties, using MetHyd and GrowUp as pre-processors to provide input to VSD+. The single-layer soil model VSD+ accounts for processes of organic C and N turnover, as well as charge and mass balances of elements, cation exchange and base cation weathering. We calibrated VSD+ at 26 ecosystem study sites throughout Europe using observed conditions, and simulated key soil properties: soil solution pH (pH), soil base saturation (BS) and soil organic carbon and nitrogen ratio (C:N) under projected deposition of N and S, and climate warming until 2100. The sites are forested, located in the Mediterranean, forested alpine, Atlantic, continental and boreal regions. They represent the long-term ecological research (LTER) Europe network, including sites of the ICP Forests and ICP Integrated Monitoring (IM) programmes under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), providing high quality long-term data on ecosystem response. Simulated future soil conditions improved under projected decrease in deposition and current climate conditions: higher pH, BS and C:N at 21, 16 and 12 of the sites, respectively. When climate change was included in the scenario analysis, the variability of the results increased. Climate warming resulted in higher simulated pH in most cases, and higher BS and C:N in roughly half of the cases. Especially the increase in C:N was more marked with climate warming. The study illustrates the value of LTER sites for applying models to predict soil responses to multiple environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid29857466, year = {2018}, author = {McGushin, A and Tcholakov, Y and Hajat, S}, title = {Climate Change and Human Health: Health Impacts of Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15061123}, pmid = {29857466}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {In December 2015, a historic agreement was reached at the Paris Climate Conference for the first-ever global deal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.[...].}, }
@article {pmid29855893, year = {2018}, author = {Krishnan, P and Ananthan, PS and Purvaja, R and Joyson Joe Jeevamani, J and Amali Infantina, J and Srinivasa Rao, C and Anand, A and Mahendra, RS and Sekar, I and Kareemulla, K and Biswas, A and Kalpana Sastry, R and Ramesh, R}, title = {Framework for mapping the drivers of coastal vulnerability and spatial decision making for climate-change adaptation: A case study from Maharashtra, India.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-018-1061-8}, pmid = {29855893}, issn = {1654-7209}, abstract = {The impacts of climate change are of particular concern to the coastal region of tropical countries like India, which are exposed to cyclones, floods, tsunami, seawater intrusion, etc. Climate-change adaptation presupposes comprehensive assessment of vulnerability status. Studies so far relied either on remote sensing-based spatial mapping of physical vulnerability or on certain socio-economic aspects with limited scope for upscaling or replication. The current study is an attempt to develop a holistic and robust framework to assess the vulnerability of coastal India at different levels. We propose and estimate cumulative vulnerability index (CVI) as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, at the village level, using nationally comparable and credible datasets. The exposure index (EI) was determined at the village level by decomposing the spatial multi-hazard maps, while sensitivity (SI) and adaptive capacity indices (ACI) were estimated using 23 indicators, covering social and economic aspects. The indicators were identified through the literature review, expert consultations, opinion survey, and were further validated through statistical tests. The socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI) was constructed as a function of sensitivity and adaptive capacity for planning grassroot-level interventions and adaptation strategies. The framework was piloted in Sindhudurg, a coastal district in Maharashtra, India. It comprises 317 villages, spread across three taluks viz., Devgad, Malvan and Vengurla. The villages in Sindhudurg were ranked based on this multi-criteria approach. Based on CVI values, 92 villages (30%) in Sindhudurg were identified as highly vulnerable. We propose a decision tool for identifying villages vulnerable to changing climate, based on their level of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in a two-dimensional matrix, thus aiding in planning location-specific interventions. Here, vulnerability indicators are classified and designated as 'drivers' (indicators with significantly high values and intervention priority) and 'buffers' (indicators with low-to-moderate values) at the village level. The framework provides for aggregation or decomposition of CVI and other sub-indices, in order to plan spatial contingency plans and enable swift action for climate adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid29855875, year = {2018}, author = {Sheng, F and Cao, CG and Li, CF}, title = {Integrated rice-duck farming decreases global warming potential and increases net ecosystem economic budget in central China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {23}, pages = {22744-22753}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-2380-9}, pmid = {29855875}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2017YFD0301403//State Key Special Program/ ; 31471454, 31671637, 31670447//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2016CFA017//Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province/ ; }, abstract = {Over the past decades, many attempts have been made to assess the effects of integrated rice-duck farming on greenhouse gas emissions, use efficient of energy, soil fertility, and economic significance. However, very few studies have been focused on the effects of the farming on net ecosystem economic budget (NEEB). Here, a 2-year field experiment was conducted to comprehensively investigate the effects of ducks raised in paddy fields on CH4 and N2O emissions, global warming potential (GWP), rice grain yield, and NEEB in central China. The experiment included two treatments: integrated rice-duck farming (RD) and conventional rice farming (R). The introduction of ducks into the paddy fields markedly increased the rice grain yield due to enhanced tiller number and root bleeding rate. RD treatment significantly elevated the N2O emissions (p < 0.05) but decreased CH4 emissions (p < 0.05) during rice growing seasons compared with R treatment. Analysis of GWP based on CH4 and N2O emissions showed that compared with R treatment, RD treatment significantly decreased the GWP by 28.1 and 28.0% and reduced the greenhouse gas intensity by 30.6 and 29.8% in 2009 and 2010, respectively. In addition, RD treatment increased NEEB by 40.8 and 39.7% respectively in 2009 and 2010 relative to R treatment. Taken together, our results suggest that the integrated rice-duck farming system is an effective strategy to optimize the economic and environmental benefits of paddy fields in central China.}, }
@article {pmid29855872, year = {2018}, author = {Sequeira, TN and Santos, MS and Magalhães, M}, title = {Climate change and economic growth: a heterogeneous panel data approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {23}, pages = {22725-22735}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-2305-7}, pmid = {29855872}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007659//Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global phenomenon. Its impact on economic growth must therefore be analyzed in accordance with its (time-varying) common effects. We present an econometric analysis that evaluates this effect taking into account its global nature. Contrary to previous evidence that ignores the global effects, we obtain that the rising temperature has not decreased growth in real GDP per capita in the second half of the twentieth century for the world countries. However, we obtain a negative effect of rising temperatures and a positive effect of rising precipitation in poor countries. This positive effect of rising precipitation is also confirmed for hot and temperate countries.}, }
@article {pmid29853283, year = {2018}, author = {Araus, JL and Kefauver, SC}, title = {Breeding to adapt agriculture to climate change: affordable phenotyping solutions.}, journal = {Current opinion in plant biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2018.05.003}, pmid = {29853283}, issn = {1879-0356}, abstract = {Breeding is one of the central pillars of adaptation of crops to climate change. However, phenotyping is a key bottleneck that is limiting breeding efficiency. The awareness of phenotyping as a breeding limitation is not only sustained by the lack of adequate approaches, but also by the perception that phenotyping is an expensive activity. Phenotyping is not just dependent on the choice of appropriate traits and tools (e.g. sensors) but relies on how these tools are deployed on their carrying platforms, the speed and volume of data extraction and analysis (throughput), the handling of spatial variability and characterization of environmental conditions, and finally how all the information is integrated and processed. Affordable high throughput phenotyping aims to achieve reasonably priced solutions for all the components comprising the phenotyping pipeline. This mini-review will cover current and imminent solutions for all these components, from the increasing use of conventional digital RGB cameras, within the category of sensors, to open-access cloud-structured data processing and the use of smartphones. Emphasis will be placed on field phenotyping, which is really the main application for day-to-day phenotyping.}, }
@article {pmid29851645, year = {2017}, author = {Hansen, A and Bi, P}, title = {Climate change adaptation: no one size fits all.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {1}, number = {9}, pages = {e353-e354}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30160-2}, pmid = {29851645}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid29851632, year = {2017}, author = {Lee, JY and Kim, H}, title = {Comprehensive assessment of climate change risks.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {1}, number = {5}, pages = {e166-e167}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30084-0}, pmid = {29851632}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid29851616, year = {2017}, author = {Majeed, H and Lee, J}, title = {The impact of climate change on youth depression and mental health.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {e94-e95}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30045-1}, pmid = {29851616}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Depression/*etiology ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid29851610, year = {2017}, author = {The Lancet Planetary Health, }, title = {Climate change-the wider threat.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {e82}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30052-9}, pmid = {29851610}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid29851604, year = {2017}, author = {Charlesworth, M and Swinton, F}, title = {Anaesthetic gases, climate change, and sustainable practice.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {1}, number = {6}, pages = {e216-e217}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30040-2}, pmid = {29851604}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Anesthesia, Inhalation/instrumentation/*methods ; *Anesthetics, Inhalation ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Gases ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid29851262, year = {2018}, author = {Chen, J and Lin, G and Qin, W and Yan, J and Zhang, T and Su, J}, title = {The roles of calving migration and climate change in the formation of the weak genetic structure in the Tibetan antelope (Pantholops hodgsonii).}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12334}, pmid = {29851262}, issn = {1749-4877}, abstract = {Geographical barriers and distance can reduce gene exchange among animals, resulting in genetic divergence of geographically isolated populations. The habitats of Tibetan antelope (Pantholops hodgsonii) has a geographical range of approximately 1,600 km across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) with a series tall mountains and big rivers. However, previously studies indicated that there was little genetic differentiation among their geographically delineated populations. To better understand the genetic structure of P. hodgsonii populations, we collected 145 samples from the three major calving regions considering their various calving grounds and migration routes. We used a combination of mitochondrial sequences (Cyt b, ATPase, D-loop and COX I) to investigate the genetic structure and the evolutionary divergence of the populations. Significant, albeit weak, genetic differentiation was detected among the three geographical populations. Analysis of the genetic divergence process revealed that the animals gradually entered into a period of rapid genetic differentiation since approximately 60,000 years ago. The calving migration of P. hodgsonii cannot be the main cause of their weak genetic structure since such cannot fully homogenize the genetic pool. Instead, the geological and climatic events as well as the coupling vegetation succession process during this period have been suggested to greatly contribute to the genetic structure and the expansion of genetic diversity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid29849111, year = {2018}, author = {Haworth, M and Belcher, CM and Killi, D and Dewhirst, RA and Materassi, A and Raschi, A and Centritto, M}, title = {Publisher Correction: Impaired photosynthesis and increased leaf construction costs may induce floral stress during episodes of global warming over macroevolutionary timescales.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {8661}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-26883-7}, pmid = {29849111}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.}, }
@article {pmid29847557, year = {2018}, author = {Rounaghi, I and Hosseinian Yousefkhani, SS}, title = {Effects of climate change on niche shifts of Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi (Reptilia: Agamidae) in Western Asia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {e0197884}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0197884}, pmid = {29847557}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Genus Pseudotrapelus has a wide distribution in North Africa and in the Middle East. In the present study, we modeled the habitat suitability of two Omani species of the genus (Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi) to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on their distribution. Mean diurnal range and precipitation of wettest quarter are the most highly contributed variables for P. jensvindumi and P. dhofarensis, respectively. The potential distribution for P. dhofarensis in the current time covers the southern coastal regions of Oman, Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and Socotra Island, but the suitable regions were reduced in the future prediction and limited to Yemen, Socotra Island, and Oman. There have not been any records of the species outside of Oman. Analysis of habitat suitability for P. jensvindumi indicated that the species is restricted to the Al Hajar Mountain of Oman and the southeast coastal region of Iran, but there are no records of the species from Iran. Because mean diurnal range will not be influenced by climate change in future, the potential distribution of the species is not expected to be changed in 2050. All predicted models were performed with the highest AUC (more than 0.97) using the Maxent method. Investigation to find unknown populations of these two species in Iran, Yemen, and Socotra Island is essential for developing conservation programs in the future.}, }
@article {pmid29846783, year = {2018}, author = {Laursen, S and Puniwai, N and Genz, AS and Nash, SAB and Canale, LK and Ziegler-Chong, S}, title = {Collaboration Across Worldviews: Managers and Scientists on Hawai'i Island Utilize Knowledge Coproduction to Facilitate Climate Change Adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {62}, number = {4}, pages = {619-630}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-018-1069-7}, pmid = {29846783}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Complex socio-ecological issues, such as climate change have historically been addressed through technical problem solving methods. Yet today, climate science approaches are increasingly accounting for the roles of diverse social perceptions, experiences, cultural norms, and worldviews. In support of this shift, we developed a research program on Hawai'i Island that utilizes knowledge coproduction to integrate the diverse worldviews of natural and cultural resource managers, policy professionals, and researchers within actionable science products. Through their work, local field managers regularly experience discrete land and waterscapes. Additionally, in highly interconnected rural communities, such as Hawai'i Island, managers often participate in the social norms and values of communities that utilize these ecosystems. Such local manager networks offer powerful frameworks within which to co-develop and implement actionable science. We interviewed a diverse set of local managers with the aim of incorporating their perspectives into the development of a collaborative climate change research agenda that builds upon existing professional networks utilized by managers and scientists while developing new research products. We report our manager needs assessment, the development process of our climate change program, our interactive forums, and our ongoing research products. Our needs assessment showed that the managers' primary source of information were other professional colleagues, and our in-person forums informed us that local managers are very interested in interacting with a wider range of networks to build upon their management capacities. Our initial programmatic progress suggests that co-created research products and in-person forums strengthen the capacities of local managers to adapt to change.}, }
@article {pmid29845384, year = {2018}, author = {Ogle, SM and Domke, G and Kurz, WA and Rocha, MT and Huffman, T and Swan, A and Smith, JE and Woodall, C and Krug, T}, title = {Delineating managed land for reporting national greenhouse gas emissions and removals to the United Nations framework convention on climate change.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.1186/s13021-018-0095-3}, pmid = {29845384}, issn = {1750-0680}, support = {13-CR-11242305-098//U.S. Forest Service/ ; }, abstract = {Land use and management activities have a substantial impact on carbon stocks and associated greenhouse gas emissions and removals. However, it is challenging to discriminate between anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic sources and sinks from land. To address this problem, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change developed a managed land proxy to determine which lands are contributing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Governments report all emissions and removals from managed land to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change based on this proxy, and policy interventions to reduce emissions from land use are expected to focus on managed lands. Our objective was to review the use of the managed land proxy, and summarize the criteria that governments have applied to classify land as managed and unmanaged. We found that the large majority of governments are not reporting on their application of the managed land proxy. Among the governments that do provide information, most have assigned all area in specific land uses as managed, while designating all remaining lands as unmanaged. This designation as managed land is intuitive for croplands and settlements, which would not exist without management interventions, but a portion of forest land, grassland, and wetlands may not be managed in a country. Consequently, Brazil, Canada and the United States have taken the concept further and delineated managed and unmanaged forest land, grassland and wetlands, using additional criteria such as functional use of the land and accessibility of the land to anthropogenic activity. The managed land proxy is imperfect because reported emissions from any area can include non-anthropogenic sources, such as natural disturbances. However, the managed land proxy does make reporting of GHG emissions and removals from land use more tractable and comparable by excluding fluxes from areas that are not directly influenced by anthropogenic activity. Moreover, application of the managed land proxy can be improved by incorporating additional criteria that allow for further discrimination between managed and unmanaged land.}, }
@article {pmid29844981, year = {2018}, author = {Wei, J and Zhao, Q and Zhao, W and Zhang, H}, title = {Predicting the potential distributions of the invasive cycad scale Aulacaspis yasumatsui (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) under different climate change scenarios and the implications for management.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e4832}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.4832}, pmid = {29844981}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Cycads are an ancient group of gymnosperms that are popular as landscaping plants, though nearly all of them are threatened or endangered in the wild. The cycad aulacaspis scale (CAS), Aulacaspis yasumatsui Takagi (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), has become one of the most serious pests of cycads in recent years; however, the potential distribution range and the management approach for this pest are unclear. A potential risk map of cycad aulacaspis scale was created based on occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors in this study. Furthermore, the future potential distributions of CAS were projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (GFDL-CM3, HADGEM2-AO and MIROC5) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The model suggested high environmental suitability for the continents of Asia and North America, where the species has already been recorded. The potential distribution expansions or reductions were also predicted under different climate change conditions. Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor, explaining 48.1% of the distribution of the species. The results also suggested that highly suitable habitat for CAS would exist in the study area if the mean temperature of 15-20 °C in the driest quarter and a mean temperature of 25-28 °C the wettest quarter. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policy to manage and control this invasive pest.}, }
@article {pmid29844952, year = {2018}, author = {Vale, MM and Souza, TV and Alves, MAS and Crouzeilles, R}, title = {Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e4689}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.4689}, pmid = {29844952}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background: A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species' representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050.<br><br>Methods: We combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only) and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers.<br><br>Results: We estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km2 in environmentally suitable areas for birds, representing 52% of currently suitable areas. Still, the most cost-effective solution represented almost all target species, requiring only ca. 10% of the Atlantic Forest counties to achieve that representativeness, independent of strategy. More than 50% of these counties were selected both in the current and future planned networks, representing >83% of the species.<br><br>Discussion: Our results indicate that: (i) planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii) the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as &quot;no regret&quot; areas; (iii) priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv) decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County) as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies.}, }
@article {pmid29808822, year = {2018}, author = {Chan, AW and Hon, KL and Leung, TF and Ho, MH and Rosa Duque, JS and Lee, TH}, title = {The effects of global warming on allergic diseases.}, journal = {Hong Kong medical journal = Xianggang yi xue za zhi}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {277-284}, doi = {10.12809/hkmj177046}, pmid = {29808822}, issn = {1024-2708}, abstract = {Global warming is a public health emergency. Substantial scientific evidence indicates an unequivocal rising trend in global surface temperature that has caused higher atmospheric levels of moisture retention leading to more frequent extreme weather conditions, shrinking ice volume, and gradually rising sea levels. The concomitant rise in the prevalence of allergic diseases is closely related to these environmental changes because warm and moist environments favour the proliferation of common allergens such as pollens, dust mites, molds, and fungi. Global warming also stresses ecosystems, further accelerating critical biodiversity loss. Excessive carbon dioxide, together with the warming of seawater, promotes ocean acidification and oxygen depletion. This results in a progressive decline of phytoplankton and fish growth that in turn promotes the formation of larger oceanic dead zones, disrupting the food chain and biodiversity. Poor environmental biodiversity and a reduction in the microbiome spectrum are risk factors for allergic diseases in human populations. While climate change and the existence of an allergy epidemic are closely linked according to robust international research, efforts to mitigate these have encountered strong resistance because of vested economic and political concerns in different countries. International collaboration to establish legally binding regulations should be mandatory for forest protection and energy saving. Lifestyle and behavioural changes should also be advocated at the individual level by focusing on low carbon living; avoiding food wastage; and implementing the 4Rs: reduce, reuse, recycle, and replace principles. These lifestyle measures are entirely consistent with the current recommendations for allergy prevention. Efforts to mitigate climate change, preserve biodiversity, and prevent chronic diseases are interdependent disciplines.}, }
@article {pmid29808532, year = {2018}, author = {Li, X and Ge, X and Chen, L and Zhang, L and Wang, T and Zong, S}, title = {Climate change impacts on the potential distribution of Eogystia hippophaecolus in China.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.5092}, pmid = {29808532}, issn = {1526-4998}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Seabuckthorn carpenter moth, Eogystia hippophaecolus (Hua, Chou, Fang, &amp; Chen, 1990), is the most important boring pest of sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides L.) in the northwest of China. It is responsible for the death of large areas of H. rhamnoides forest, seriously affecting the ecological environment and economic development in north-western China. To clarify the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus in China, the present study used the CLIMEX 4.0.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1981-2010) and simulated future climate data (2011-2100) for China.<br><br>RESULTS: Under historical climate condition, E. hippophaecolus would be found to be distributed mainly between 27° N-51° N and 74° E-134° E, with favorable and highly favorable habitats accounting for 35.2% of the total potential distribution. Under future climate conditions, E. hippophaecolus would be distributed mainly between 27° N-53° N and 74° E-134° E, with the possibility of moving in a northwest direction. Under these conditions, the proportion of the total area providing a favorable and highly favorable habitat may decrease to about 33%.<br><br>CONCLUSION: These results will help to identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus, thereby providing a theoretical basis for monitoring and early forecasting of pest outbreaks. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid29804316, year = {2018}, author = {Li, D and Wu, S and Liu, L and Zhang, Y and Li, S}, title = {Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14327}, pmid = {29804316}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid29803048, year = {2018}, author = {Zhao, G and Mu, X and Jiao, J and Gao, P and Sun, W and Li, E and Wei, Y and Huang, J}, title = {Assessing response of sediment load variation to climate change and human activities with six different approaches.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {639}, number = {}, pages = {773-784}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.154}, pmid = {29803048}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to variations in sediment load is of great importance for regional soil, and river basin management. Considerable studies have investigated spatial-temporal variation of sediment load within the Loess Plateau; however, contradictory findings exist among methods used. This study systematically reviewed six quantitative methods: simple linear regression, double mass curve, sediment identity factor analysis, dam-sedimentation based method, the Sediment Delivery Distributed (SEDD) model, and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The calculation procedures and merits for each method were systematically explained. A case study in the Huangfuchuan watershed on the northern Loess Plateau has been undertaken. The results showed that sediment load had been reduced by 70.5% during the changing period from 1990 to 2012 compared to that of the baseline period from 1955 to 1989. Human activities accounted for an average of 93.6 ± 4.1% of the total decline in sediment load, whereas climate change contributed 6.4 ± 4.1%. Five methods produced similar estimates, but the linear regression yielded relatively different results. The results of this study provide a good reference for assessing the effects of climate change and human activities on sediment load variation by using different methods.}, }
@article {pmid29802778, year = {2018}, author = {Jeremias, G and Barbosa, J and Marques, SM and Asselman, J and Gonçalves, FJM and Pereira, JL}, title = {Synthesizing the role of epigenetics in the response and adaptation of species to climate change in freshwater ecosystems.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {27}, number = {13}, pages = {2790-2806}, doi = {10.1111/mec.14727}, pmid = {29802778}, issn = {1365-294X}, abstract = {Freshwater ecosystems are amongst the most threatened ecosystems on Earth. Currently, climate change is one of the most important drivers of freshwater transformation and its effects include changes in the composition, biodiversity and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Understanding the capacity of freshwater species to tolerate the environmental fluctuations induced by climate change is critical to the development of effective conservation strategies. In the last few years, epigenetic mechanisms were increasingly put forward in this context because of their pivotal role in gene-environment interactions. In addition, the evolutionary role of epigenetically inherited phenotypes is a relatively recent but promising field. Here, we examine and synthesize the impacts of climate change on freshwater ecosystems, exploring the potential role of epigenetic mechanisms in both short- and long-term adaptation of species. Following this wrapping-up of current evidence, we particularly focused on bringing together the most promising future research avenues towards a better understanding of the effects of climate change on freshwater biodiversity, specifically highlighting potential molecular targets and the most suitable freshwater species for future epigenetic studies in this context.}, }
@article {pmid29801768, year = {2018}, author = {Fernandez, MA and Bucaram, S and Renteria, W}, title = {Corrigendum to &quot;(Non-) robustness of vulnerability assessments to climate change: An application to New Zealand&quot; [J. Environ. Manag. 203 400-412].}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {223}, number = {}, pages = {1098-1099}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.05.038}, pmid = {29801768}, issn = {1095-8630}, }
@article {pmid29801237, year = {2018}, author = {Wagena, MB and Collick, AS and Ross, AC and Najjar, RG and Rau, B and Sommerlot, AR and Fuka, DR and Kleinman, PJA and Easton, ZM}, title = {Impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {637-638}, number = {}, pages = {1443-1454}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.116}, pmid = {29801237}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Nutrient export from agricultural landscapes is a water quality concern and the cause of mitigation activities worldwide. Climate change impacts hydrology and nutrient cycling by changing soil moisture, stoichiometric nutrient ratios, and soil temperature, potentially complicating mitigation measures. This research quantifies the impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrology, nutrient cycling, and greenhouse gas emissions in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We force a calibrated model with seven downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate models and derived climate anomalies to assess their impact on hydrology and the export of nitrate (NO3-), phosphorus (P), and sediment, and emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and di-nitrogen (N2). Model-average (±standard deviation) results indicate that climate change, through an increase in precipitation and temperature, will result in substantial increases in winter/spring flow (10.6 ± 12.3%), NO3- (17.3 ± 6.4%), dissolved P (32.3 ± 18.4%), total P (24.8 ± 16.9%), and sediment (25.2 ± 16.6%) export, and a slight increases in N2O (0.3 ± 4.8%) and N2 (0.2 ± 11.8%) emissions. Conversely, decreases in summer flow (-29.1 ± 24.6%) and the export of dissolved P (-15.5 ± 26.4%), total P (-16.3 ± 20.7%), sediment (-20.7 ± 18.3%), and NO3- (-29.1 ± 27.8%) are driven by greater evapotranspiration from increasing summer temperatures. Decreases in N2O (-26.9 ± 15.7%) and N2 (-36.6 ± 22.9%) are predicted in the summer and driven by drier soils. While the changes in flow are related directly to changes in precipitation and temperature, the changes in nutrient and sediment export are, to some extent, driven by changes in agricultural management that climate change induces, such as earlier spring tillage and altered nutrient application timing and by alterations to nutrient cycling in the soil.}, }
@article {pmid29801202, year = {2018}, author = {Jin, L and Whitehead, PG and Appeaning Addo, K and Amisigo, B and Macadam, I and Janes, T and Crossman, J and Nicholls, RJ and McCartney, M and Rodda, HJE}, title = {Modeling future flows of the Volta River system: Impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {637-638}, number = {}, pages = {1069-1080}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.350}, pmid = {29801202}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {As the scientific consensus concerning global climate change has increased in recent decades, research on potential impacts of climate change on water resources has been given high importance. However in Sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have fully evaluated the potential implications of climate change to their water resource systems. The Volta River is one of the major rivers in Africa covering six riparian countries (mainly Ghana and Burkina Faso). It is a principal water source for approximately 24 million people in the region. The catchment is primarily agricultural providing food supplies to rural areas, demonstrating the classic water, food, energy nexus. In this study an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) was applied to the whole Volta River system to simulate flow in the rivers and at the outlet of the artificial Lake Volta. High-resolution climate scenarios downscaled from three different Global Climate Models (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES and CanESM2), have been used to drive the INCA model and to assess changes in flow by 2050s and 2090s under the high climate forcing scenario RCP8.5. Results show that peak flows during the monsoon months could increase into the future. The duration of high flow could become longer compared to the recent condition. In addition, we considered three different socio-economic scenarios. As an example, under the combined impact from climate change from downscaling CNRM-CM5 and medium+ (high economic growth) socio-economic changes, the extreme high flows (Q5) of the Black Volta River are projected to increase 11% and 36% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Lake Volta outflow would increase +1% and +5% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively, under the same scenario. The effects of changing socio-economic conditions on flow are minor compared to the climate change impact. These results will provide valuable information assisting future water resource development and adaptive strategies in the Volta Basin.}, }
@article {pmid29800841, year = {2018}, author = {Peng, S and Li, Z}, title = {Potential land use adjustment for future climate change adaptation in revegetated regions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {639}, number = {}, pages = {476-484}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.194}, pmid = {29800841}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {To adapt to future climate change, appropriate land use patterns are desired. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) emphasizing the dominant role of climate can provide a useful baseline to guide the potential land use adjustment. This work is particularly important for the revegetated regions with intensive human perturbation. However, it has received little attention. This study chose China's Loess Plateau, a typical revegetated region, as an example study area to generate the PNV patterns with high spatial resolution over 2071-2100 with a process-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), and further investigated the potential land use adjustment through comparing the simulated and observed land use patterns. Compared with 1981-2010, the projected PNV over 2071-2100 would have less forest and more steppe because of drier climate. Subsequently, 25.3-55.0% of the observed forests and 79.3-91.9% of the observed grasslands in 2010 can be kept over 2071-2100, and the rest of the existing forested area and grassland were expected to be more suitable for steppes and forests, respectively. To meet the request of China's Grain for Green Project, 60.9-84.8% of the existing steep farmland could be converted to grassland and the other for forest. Our results highlight the importance in adjusting the existing vegetation pattern to adapt to climate change. The research approach is extendable and provides a framework to evaluate the sustainability of the existing land use pattern under future climate.}, }
@article {pmid29797078, year = {2018}, author = {Mukwada, G and Manatsa, D}, title = {Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of climate change on vegetation health in the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {190}, number = {6}, pages = {358}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-018-6660-0}, pmid = {29797078}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Plant Development ; Rain ; *Satellite Imagery ; Seasons ; South Africa ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on mountain ecosystems has been in the spotlight for the past three decades. Climate change is generally considered to be a threat to ecosystem health in mountain regions. Vegetation indices can be used to detect shifts in ecosystem phenology and climate change in mountain regions while satellite imagery can play an important role in this process. However, what has remained problematic is determining the extent to which ecosystem phenology is affected by climate change under increasingly warming conditions. In this paper, we use climate and vegetation indices that were derived from satellite data to investigate the link between ecosystem phenology and climate change in the Namahadi Catchment Area of the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa. The time series for climate indices as well as those for gridded precipitation and temperature data were analyzed in order to determine climate shifts, and concomitant changes in vegetation health were assessed in the resultant epochs using vegetation indices. The results indicate that vegetation indices should only be used to assess trends in climate change under relatively pristine conditions, where human influence is limited. This knowledge is important for designing climate change monitoring strategies that are based on ecosystem phenology and vegetation health.}, }
@article {pmid29795584, year = {2018}, author = {Slama, A and Mallek-Maalej, E and Ben Mohamed, H and Rhim, T and Radhouane, L}, title = {A return to the genetic heritage of durum wheat to cope with drought heightened by climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {e0196873}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0196873}, pmid = {29795584}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Chlorophyll/biosynthesis ; Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Edible Grain/*genetics/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Optical Imaging ; Peroxidase/metabolism ; Photosynthesis/genetics ; Plant Breeding ; Plant Leaves/*genetics/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Proline/metabolism ; *Rain ; Stress, Physiological/*genetics ; Sugars/metabolism ; Triticum/*genetics/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Water/metabolism ; }, abstract = {The objective of this work was to perform a comparative analysis of the physiological, biochemical and agronomical parameters of recent and heritage durum wheat cultivars (Triticum durum Desf.) under water-deficit conditions. Five cultivars were grown under irrigated (control) and rainfall (stressed) conditions. Different agro-physiological and biochemical parameters were studied: electrolyte leakage, relative water content, chlorophyll fluorescence, proline, soluble sugars, specific peroxidase activity, yield and drought stress indices. It was revealed that a water deficit increased proline content, electrolyte leakage, soluble sugars and specific peroxidase activity and decreased relative water content, fluorescence and grain yield. According to these parameters and drought stress indices, our investigation indicated that old cultivars are the best-adapted to local conditions and showed characteristics of drought tolerance, while recent cultivars showed more drought susceptibility. Therefore, local cultivars of each country should be kept by farmers and plant breeders to preserve their genetic heritage.}, }
@article {pmid29795400, year = {2018}, author = {Atmeh, K and Andruszkiewicz, A and Zub, K}, title = {Climate change is affecting mortality of weasels due to camouflage mismatch.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {7648}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-26057-5}, pmid = {29795400}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Direct phenological mismatch caused by climate change can occur in mammals that moult seasonally. Two colour morphs of the weasel Mustela nivalis (M. n.) occur sympatrically in Białowieża Forest (NE Poland) and differ in their winter pelage colour: white in M. n. nivalis and brown in M. n. vulgaris. Due to their small body size, weasels are vulnerable to attacks by a range of different predators; thus cryptic coat colour may increase their winter survival. By analysing trapping data, we found that the share of white subspecies in the weasel population inhabiting Białowieża Forest decreases with decreasing numbers of days with snow cover. This led us to hypothesise that selective predation pressure should favour one of the two phenotypes, according to the prevailing weather conditions in winter. A simple field experiment with weasel models (white and brown), exposed against different background colours, revealed that contrasting models faced significantly higher detection by predators. Our observations also confirmed earlier findings that the plasticity of moult in M. n. nivalis is very limited. This means that climate change will strongly influence the mortality of the nivalis-type due to prolonged camouflage mismatch, which will directly affect the abundance and geographical distribution of this subspecies.}, }
@article {pmid29793679, year = {2018}, author = {Huang, X}, title = {Ecologically unequal exchange, recessions, and climate change: A longitudinal study.}, journal = {Social science research}, volume = {73}, number = {}, pages = {1-12}, doi = {10.1016/j.ssresearch.2018.03.003}, pmid = {29793679}, issn = {1096-0317}, abstract = {This study investigates how the ecologically unequal exchange of carbon dioxide emissions varies with economic recessions. I propose a country-specific approach to examine (1) the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and the &quot;vertical flow&quot; of exports to the United States; and (2) the variations of the relationship before, during, and after two recent economic recessions in 2001 and 2008. Using data on 69 developing nations between 2000 and 2010, I estimate time-series cross-sectional regression models with two-way fixed effects. Results suggest that the vertical flow of exports to the United States is positively associated with carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries. The magnitude of this relationship increased in 2001, 2009, and 2010, and decreased in 2008, but remained stable in non-recession periods, suggesting that economic recessions in the United States are associated with variations of ecologically unequal exchange. Results highlight the impacts of U.S. recessions on carbon emissions in developing countries through the structure of international trade.}, }
@article {pmid29790983, year = {2018}, author = {Zinsstag, J and Crump, L and Schelling, E and Hattendorf, J and Maidane, YO and Ali, KO and Muhummed, A and Umer, AA and Aliyi, F and Nooh, F and Abdikadir, MI and Ali, SM and Hartinger, S and Mäusezahl, D and de White, MBG and Cordon-Rosales, C and Castillo, DA and McCracken, J and Abakar, F and Cercamondi, C and Emmenegger, S and Maier, E and Karanja, S and Bolon, I and de Castañeda, RR and Bonfoh, B and Tschopp, R and Probst-Hensch, N and Cissé, G}, title = {Climate change and One Health.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology letters}, volume = {365}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsle/fny085}, pmid = {29790983}, issn = {1574-6968}, abstract = {The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29785350, year = {2018}, author = {Durante, LM and Cruz, ICS and Lotufo, TMC}, title = {The effect of climate change on the distribution of a tropical zoanthid (Palythoa caribaeorum) and its ecological implications.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e4777}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.4777}, pmid = {29785350}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Palythoa caribaeorum is a zoanthid often dominant in shallow rocky environments along the west coast of the Atlantic Ocean, from the tropics to the subtropics. This species has high environmental tolerance and is a good space competitor in reef environments. Considering current and future scenarios in the global climate regime, this study aimed to model and analyze the distribution of P. caribaeorum, generating maps of potential distribution for the present and the year 2100. The distribution was modeled using maximum entropy (Maxent) based on 327 occurrence sites retrieved from the literature. Calcite concentration, maximum chlorophyll-a concentration, salinity, pH, and temperature range yielded a model with the smallest Akaike information criterion (2649.8), and were used in the present and future distribution model. Data from the HadGEM2-ES climate model were used to generate the projections for the year 2100. The present distribution of P. caribaeorum shows that parts of the Brazilian coast, Caribbean Sea, and Florida are suitable regions for the species, as they are characterized by high salinity and pH and small temperature variation. An expansion of the species' distribution was forecast northward under mild climate scenarios, while a decrease of suitable areas was forecast in the south. In the climate scenario with the most intense changes, P. caribaeorum would lose one-half of its suitable habitats, including the northernmost and southernmost areas of its distribution. The Caribbean Sea and northeastern Brazil, as well as other places under the influence of coastal upwellings, may serve as potential havens for this species.}, }
@article {pmid29784905, year = {2018}, author = {King, M and Altdorff, D and Li, P and Galagedara, L and Holden, J and Unc, A}, title = {Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {7904}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-26321-8}, pmid = {29784905}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21st-century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.}, }
@article {pmid29781429, year = {2018}, author = {The Lancet, }, title = {Turning climate change legislation into public health policy.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {391}, number = {10133}, pages = {1865}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31004-3}, pmid = {29781429}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Health Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid29781219, year = {2018}, author = {Mathias, JM and Thomas, RB}, title = {Disentangling the effects of acidic air pollution, atmospheric CO2 , and climate change on recent growth of red spruce trees in the Central Appalachian Mountains.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14273}, pmid = {29781219}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {In the 45 years after legislation of the Clean Air Act, there has been tremendous progress in reducing acidic air pollutants in the eastern United States, yet limited evidence exists that cleaner air has improved forest health. Here, we investigate the influence of recent environmental changes on the growth and physiology of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) trees, a key indicator species of forest health, spanning three locations along a 100 km transect in the Central Appalachian Mountains. We incorporated a multiproxy approach using 75-year tree ring chronologies of basal tree growth, carbon isotope discrimination (∆13 C, a proxy for leaf gas exchange), and δ15 N (a proxy for ecosystem N status) to examine tree and ecosystem level responses to environmental change. Results reveal the two most important factors driving increased tree growth since ca. 1989 are reductions in acidic sulfur pollution and increases in atmospheric CO2 , while reductions in pollutant emissions of NOx and warmer springs played smaller, but significant roles. Tree ring ∆13 C signatures increased significantly since 1989, concurrently with significant declines in tree ring δ15 N signatures. These isotope chronologies provide strong evidence that simultaneous changes in C and N cycling, including greater photosynthesis and stomatal conductance of trees and increases in ecosystem N retention, were related to recent increases in red spruce tree growth and are consequential to ecosystem recovery from acidic pollution. Intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) of the red spruce trees increased by ~51% across the 75-year chronology, and was driven by changes in atmospheric CO2 and acid pollution, but iWUE was not linked to recent increases in tree growth. This study documents the complex environmental interactions that have contributed to the recovery of red spruce forest ecosystems from pervasive acidic air pollution beginning in 1989, about 15 years after acidic pollutants started to decline in the United States.}, }
@article {pmid29780340, year = {2018}, author = {Ejelöv, E and Hansla, A and Bergquist, M and Nilsson, A}, title = {Regulating Emotional Responses to Climate Change - A Construal Level Perspective.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {629}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00629}, pmid = {29780340}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {This experimental study (N = 139) examines the role of emotions in climate change risk communication. Drawing on Construal Level Theory, we tested how abstract vs. concrete descriptions of climate threat affect basic and self-conscious emotions and three emotion regulation strategies: changing oneself, repairing the situation and distancing oneself. In a 2 × 2 between subjects factorial design, climate change consequences were described as concrete/abstract and depicted as spatially proximate/distant. Results showed that, as hypothesized, increased self-conscious emotions mediate overall positive effects of abstract description on self-change and repair attempts. Unexpectedly and independent of any emotional process, a concrete description of a spatially distant consequence is shown to directly increase self-change and repair attempts, while it has no such effects when the consequence is spatially proximate. &quot;Concretizing the remote&quot; might refer to a potentially effective strategy for overcoming spatial distance barriers and motivating mitigating behavior.}, }
@article {pmid29780026, year = {2018}, author = {Osama, T and Brindley, D and Majeed, A and Murray, KA and Shah, H and Toumazos, M and Van Velthoven, M and Car, J and Wells, G and Meinert, E}, title = {Teaching the relationship between health and climate change: a systematic scoping review protocol.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {e020330}, doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020330}, pmid = {29780026}, issn = {2044-6055}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The observed and projected impacts of climate change on human health are significant. While climate change has gathered global momentum and is taught frequently, the extent to which the relationships between climate change and health are taught remains uncertain. Education provides an opportunity to create public engagement on these issues, but the extent to which historical implementation of climate health education could be leveraged is not well understood. To address this gap, we propose to conduct a scoping review of all forms of teaching that have been used to illustrate the health effects of climate change between 2005 and 2017, coinciding with a turning point in the public health and climate change agendas following the 2005 Group of 7/8 (G7/8) Summit.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Using Arksey/O'Malley's and Levac's methodological framework, MEDLINE/PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Education Resource Information Centre, Web of Science, Global Health, Health Management Information Consortium, Georef, Ebsco and PROSPERO will be systematically searched. Predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied by two independent reviewers to determine study eligibility. Studies published in English and after 2005 only will be examined. Following selection of studies, data will be extracted and analysed.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No ethical approval is required as exclusively secondary data will be used. Our findings will be communicated to the European Institute of Innovation &amp; Technology Health-Knowledge and Innovation Communities to assist in the development of a FutureLearn Massive Open Online Course on the health effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29778407, year = {2018}, author = {Cowburn, B and Samoilys, MA and Obura, D}, title = {The current status of coral reefs and their vulnerability to climate change and multiple human stresses in the Comoros Archipelago, Western Indian Ocean.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {133}, number = {}, pages = {956-969}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.04.065}, pmid = {29778407}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/classification/*growth &amp; development ; Climate Change ; Comoros ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollution ; Fisheries ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Indian Ocean ; }, abstract = {Coral bleaching and various human stressors have degraded the coral reefs of the Comoros Archipelago in the past 40 years and rising atmospheric CO2 levels are predicted to further impact marine habitats. The condition of reefs in the Comoros is poorly known; using SCUBA based methods we surveyed reef condition and resilience to bleaching at sites in Grande Comore and Mohéli in 2010 and 2016. The condition of reefs was highly variable, with a range in live coral cover between 6% and 60% and target fishery species biomass between 20 and 500 kg per ha. The vulnerability assessment of reefs to future coral bleaching and their exposure to fishing, soil erosion and river pollution in Mohéli Marine Park found that offshore sites around the islets south of the island were least likely to be impacted by these negative pressures. The high variability in both reef condition and vulnerability across reefs in the Park lends itself to spatially explicit conservation actions. However, it is noteworthy that climate impacts to date appear moderate and that local human pressures are not having a major impact on components of reef health and recovery, suggesting these reefs are relatively resilient to the current anthropogenic stresses that they are experiencing.}, }
@article {pmid29777204, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, X and Wu, W and Perry, L and Ma, Z and Bar-Yosef, O and Cohen, DJ and Zheng, H and Ge, Q}, title = {Critical role of climate change in plant selection and millet domestication in North China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {7855}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-26218-6}, pmid = {29777204}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {While North China is one of the earliest independent centers for cereal domestication in the world, the earliest stages of the long process of agricultural origins remain unclear. While only millets were eventually domesticated in early sedentary societies there, recent archaeobotanical evidence reported here indicates that grasses from the Paniceae (including millets) and Triticeae tribes were exploited together by foraging groups from the Last Glacial Maximum to the mid-Holocene. Here we explore how and why millets were selected for domestication while Triticeae were abandoned. We document the different exploitation and cultivation trajectories of the two tribes employing ancient starch data derived from nine archaeological sites dating from 25,000 to 5500 cal BP (LGM through mid-Holocene) in North China. With this diachronic overview, we can place the trajectories into the context of paleoclimatic reconstructions for this period. Entering the Holocene, climatic changes increased the yield stability, abundance, and availability of the wild progenitors of millets, with growing conditions increasingly favoring millets while becoming more unfavorable for grasses of the Triticeae tribe. We thus hypothesize that climate change played a critical role in the selection of millet species for domestication in North China, with early domestication evidenced by 8700 cal BP.}, }
@article {pmid29773751, year = {2018}, author = {Warren, R and Price, J and Graham, E and Forstenhaeusler, N and VanDerWal, J}, title = {The projected effect on insects, vertebrates, and plants of limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {360}, number = {6390}, pages = {791-795}, doi = {10.1126/science.aar3646}, pmid = {29773751}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; *Insecta ; *Plants ; United Nations ; *Vertebrates ; }, abstract = {In the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the United Nations is pursuing efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C, whereas earlier aspirations focused on a 2°C limit. With current pledges, corresponding to ~3.2°C warming, climatically determined geographic range losses of >50% are projected in ~49% of insects, 44% of plants, and 26% of vertebrates. At 2°C, this falls to 18% of insects, 16% of plants, and 8% of vertebrates and at 1.5°C, to 6% of insects, 8% of plants, and 4% of vertebrates. When warming is limited to 1.5°C as compared with 2°C, numbers of species projected to lose >50% of their range are reduced by ~66% in insects and by ~50% in plants and vertebrates.}, }
@article {pmid29773234, year = {2018}, author = {Tommaso, C and Emanuele, B and Guido, P and Lucia, P and Vincenza, CM and Riccardo, V}, title = {Corrigendum to &quot;Soil organic carbon pool's contribution to climate change mitigation on marginal land of a Mediterranean montane area in Italy&quot; &lt;[J. Environ. Manag. 218 (2018) 593-601]&gt;.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {219}, number = {}, pages = {361}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.05.020}, pmid = {29773234}, issn = {1095-8630}, }
@article {pmid29770962, year = {2018}, author = {Cruz, JP and Felicilda-Reynaldo, RFD and Alshammari, F and Alquwez, N and Alicante, JG and Obaid, KB and Rady, HEAEA and Qtait, M and Silang, JPBT}, title = {Factors Influencing Arab Nursing Students' Attitudes toward Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability and their Inclusion in Nursing Curricula.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/phn.12516}, pmid = {29770962}, issn = {1525-1446}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To assess the factors influencing the attitudes of Bachelor of Science in Nursing students toward climate change and environmental sustainability and the inclusion of these concepts in the nursing curricula of four Arab countries.<br><br>METHOD: A convenience sample of 1,059 students from four Arab countries was surveyed using the Environmental Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey-2 (SANS-2) questionnaire in this descriptive-comparative study.<br><br>RESULTS: The majority of the respondents exhibited positive attitudes toward the five items of SANS-2, with &quot;Environmental sustainability is an important issue for nursing&quot; receiving the lowest mean score and &quot;Issues about climate change should be included in the nursing curriculum&quot; receiving the highest mean score. Saudi students had more positive attitudes toward environmental sustainability in health care compared with students from Iraq, Egypt, and the Palestinian Territories. Country of residence, type of community, and knowledge about environmental issues and their impact on health in any nursing course were significant factors that influenced attitudes toward environmental sustainability.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The inclusion of climate change and environmental sustainability in nursing curricula in the Arab region was emphasized by the findings. Including environmental sustainability practices in nursing education will help student nurses develop critical thinking and skills in the adaptive delivery of health care, especially when resources are scarce.}, }
@article {pmid29768693, year = {2018}, author = {Mouritsen, KN and Sørensen, MM and Poulin, R and Fredensborg, BL}, title = {Coastal ecosystems on a tipping point: Global warming and parasitism combine to alter community structure and function.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14312}, pmid = {29768693}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Mounting evidence suggests that the transmission of certain parasites is facilitated by increasing temperatures, causing their host population to decline. However, no study has yet addressed how temperature and parasitism may combine to shape the functional structure of a whole host community in the face of global warming. Here, we apply an outdoor mesocosm approach supported by field surveys to elucidate this question in a diverse intertidal community of amphipods infected by the pathogenic microphallid trematode, Maritrema novaezealandensis. Under present temperature (17°C) and level of parasitism, the parasite had little impact on the host community. However, elevating the temperature to 21°C in the presence of parasites induced massive structural changes: amphipod abundances decreased species-specifically, affecting epibenthic species but leaving infaunal species largely untouched. In effect, species diversity dropped significantly. In contrast, four degree higher temperatures in the absence of parasitism had limited influence on the amphipod community. Further elevating temperatures (19-25°C) and parasitism, simulating a prolonged heat-wave scenario, resulted in an almost complete parasite-induced extermination of the amphipod community at 25°C. In addition, at 19°C, just two degrees above the present average, a similar temperature-parasite synergistic impact on community structure emerged as seen at 21°C under lower parasite pressure. The heat-wave temperature of 25°C per se affected the amphipod community in a comparable way: species diversity declined and the infaunal species were favoured at the expense of epibenthic species. Our experimental findings are corroborated by field data demonstrating a strong negative relationship between current amphipod species richness and the level of Maritrema parasitism across 12 sites. Hence, owing to the synergistic impact of temperature and parasitism, our study predicts that coastal amphipod communities will deteriorate in terms of abundance and diversity in face of anticipated global warming, functionally changing them to be dominated by infaunal species.}, }
@article {pmid29765385, year = {2018}, author = {Lopes, MS and Royo, C and Alvaro, F and Sanchez-Garcia, M and Ozer, E and Ozdemir, F and Karaman, M and Roustaii, M and Jalal-Kamali, MR and Pequeno, D}, title = {Optimizing Winter Wheat Resilience to Climate Change in Rain Fed Crop Systems of Turkey and Iran.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {563}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.00563}, pmid = {29765385}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Erratic weather patterns associated with increased temperatures and decreasing rainfall pose unique challenges for wheat breeders playing a key part in the fight to ensure global food security. Within rain fed winter wheat areas of Turkey and Iran, unusual weather patterns may prevent attaining maximum potential increases in winter wheat genetic gains. This is primarily related to the fact that the yield ranking of tested genotypes may change from one year to the next. Changing weather patterns may interfere with the decisions breeders make about the ideotype(s) they should aim for during selection. To inform breeding decisions, this study aimed to optimize major traits by modeling different combinations of environments (locations and years) and by defining a probabilistic range of trait variations [phenology and plant height (PH)] that maximized grain yields (GYs; one wheat line with optimal heading and height is suggested for use as a testing line to aid selection calibration decisions). Research revealed that optimal phenology was highly related to the temperature and to rainfall at which winter wheat genotypes were exposed around heading time (20 days before and after heading). Specifically, later winter wheat genotypes were exposed to higher temperatures both before and after heading, increased rainfall at the vegetative stage, and reduced rainfall during grain filling compared to early genotypes. These variations in exposure to weather conditions resulted in shorter grain filling duration and lower GYs in long-duration genotypes. This research tested if diversity within species may increase resilience to erratic weather patterns. For the study, calculated production of a selection of five high yielding genotypes (if grown in five plots) was tested against monoculture (if only a single genotype grown in the same area) and revealed that a set of diverse genotypes with different phenologies and PHs was not beneficial. New strategies of progeny selection are discussed: narrow range of variation for phenology in families may facilitate the discovery and selection of new drought-resistant and avoidant wheat lines targeting specific locations.}, }
@article {pmid29763871, year = {2018}, author = {Jin, L and Whitehead, PG and Rodda, H and Macadam, I and Sarkar, S}, title = {Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {637-638}, number = {}, pages = {907-917}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.349}, pmid = {29763871}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2079-2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology.}, }
@article {pmid29763817, year = {2018}, author = {Ahmadalipour, A and Moradkhani, H}, title = {Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {117}, number = {}, pages = {215-225}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014}, pmid = {29763817}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951-2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006-2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8-20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3-7 times if global warming is limited to 2 °C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region.}, }
@article {pmid29763490, year = {2018}, author = {Lundgren, AD}, title = {Climate change and skin disease.}, journal = {Cutis}, volume = {101}, number = {4}, pages = {E12-E14}, pmid = {29763490}, issn = {2326-6929}, mesh = {Arbovirus Infections/*epidemiology/etiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Lyme Disease/*epidemiology/etiology ; Mycoses/*epidemiology/etiology ; Skin Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology/mortality ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Despite commanding essentially universal scientific consensus, climate change remains a divisive and poorly understood topic in the United States. Familiarity with this subject is not just for climate scientists. The impact of climate change on human morbidity and mortality may be considerable; thus, physicians also should be knowledgeable in this realm. Climate change science can seem opaque and inferential, creating fertile ground for political polemics and undoubtedly contributing to confusion among the general public. This puts physicians in a pivotal position to facilitate a practical understanding of climate change in the public sphere by discussing changes in disease patterns and their possible relationship to a changing climate. This article provides a background on climate change for dermatologists and highlights how climate change may impact the management of skin disease across the United States.}, }
@article {pmid29760904, year = {2018}, author = {Markle, TM and Kozak, KH}, title = {Low acclimation capacity of narrow-ranging thermal specialists exposes susceptibility to global climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {4644-4656}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4006}, pmid = {29760904}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Thermal acclimation is hypothesized to offer a selective advantage in seasonal habitats and may underlie disparities in geographic range size among closely-related species with similar ecologies. Understanding this relationship is also critical for identifying species that are more sensitive to warming climates. Here, we study North American plethodontid salamanders to investigate whether acclimation ability is associated with species' latitudinal extents and the thermal range of the environments they inhabit. We quantified variation in thermal physiology by measuring standard metabolic rate (SMR) at different test and acclimation temperatures for 16 species of salamanders with varying latitudinal extents. A phylogenetically-controlled Markov chain Monte Carlo generalized linear mixed model (MCMCglmm) was then employed to determine whether there are differences in SMR between wide- and narrow-ranging species at different acclimation temperatures. In addition, we tested for a relationship between the acclimation ability of species and the environmental temperature ranges they inhabit. Further, we investigated if there is a trade-off between critical thermal maximum (CTMax) and thermal acclimation ability. MCMCglmm results show a significant difference in acclimation ability between wide and narrow-ranging temperate salamanders. Salamanders with wide latitudinal distributions maintain or slightly increase SMR when subjected to higher test and acclimation temperatures, whereas several narrow-ranging species show significant metabolic depression. We also found significant, positive relationships between acclimation ability and environmental thermal range, and between acclimation ability and CTMax. Wide-ranging salamander species exhibit a greater capacity for thermal acclimation than narrow-ranging species, suggesting that selection for acclimation ability may have been a key factor enabling geographic expansion into areas with greater thermal variability. Further, given that narrow-ranging salamanders are found to have both poor acclimation ability and lower tolerance to warm temperatures, they are likely to be more susceptible to environmental warming associated with anthropogenic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29760897, year = {2018}, author = {Martin, JM and Mead, JI and Barboza, PS}, title = {Bison body size and climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {4564-4574}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4019}, pmid = {29760897}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The relationship between body size and temperature of mammals is poorly resolved, especially for large keystone species such as bison (Bison bison). Bison are well represented in the fossil record across North America, which provides an opportunity to relate body size to climate within a species. We measured the length of a leg bone (calcaneal tuber, DstL) in 849 specimens from 60 localities that were dated by stratigraphy and 14C decay. We estimated body mass (M) as M = (DstL/11.49)3. Average annual temperature was estimated from δ18O values in the ice cores from Greenland. Calcaneal tuber length of Bison declined over the last 40,000 years, that is, average body mass was 37% larger (910 ± 50 kg) than today (665 ± 21 kg). Average annual temperature has warmed by 6°C since the Last Glacial Maximum (~24-18 kya) and is predicted to further increase by 4°C by the end of the 21st century. If body size continues to linearly respond to global temperature, Bison body mass will likely decline by an additional 46%, to 357 ± 54 kg, with an increase of 4°C globally. The rate of mass loss is 41 ± 10 kg per°C increase in global temperature. Changes in body size of Bison may be a result of migration, disease, or human harvest but those effects are likely to be local and short-term and not likely to persist over the long time scale of the fossil record. The strong correspondence between body size of bison and air temperature is more likely the result of persistent effects on the ability to grow and the consequences of sustaining a large body mass in a warming environment. Continuing rises in global temperature will likely depress body sizes of bison, and perhaps other large grazers, without human intervention.}, }
@article {pmid29760885, year = {2018}, author = {Slodowicz, D and Descombes, P and Kikodze, D and Broennimann, O and Müller-Schärer, H}, title = {Areas of high conservation value at risk by plant invaders in Georgia under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {4431-4442}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4005}, pmid = {29760885}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Invasive alien plants (IAP) are a threat to biodiversity worldwide. Understanding and anticipating invasions allow for more efficient management. In this regard, predicting potential invasion risks by IAPs is essential to support conservation planning into areas of high conservation value (AHCV) such as sites exhibiting exceptional botanical richness, assemblage of rare, and threatened and/or endemic plant species. Here, we identified AHCV in Georgia, a country showing high plant richness, and assessed the susceptibility of these areas to colonization by IAPs under present and future climatic conditions. We used actual protected areas and areas of high plant endemism (identified using occurrences of 114 Georgian endemic plant species) as proxies for AHCV. Then, we assessed present and future potential distribution of 27 IAPs using species distribution models under four climate change scenarios and stacked single-species potential distribution into a consensus map representing IAPs richness. We evaluated present and future invasion risks in AHCV using IAPs richness as a metric of susceptibility. We show that the actual protected areas cover only 9.4% of the areas of high plant endemism in Georgia. IAPs are presently located at lower elevations around the large urban centers and in western Georgia. We predict a shift of IAPs toward eastern Georgia and higher altitudes and an increased susceptibility of AHCV to IAPs under future climate change. Our study provides a good baseline for decision makers and stakeholders on where and how resources should be invested in the most efficient way to protect Georgia's high plant richness from IAPs.}, }
@article {pmid29758903, year = {2018}, author = {Pholkern, K and Saraphirom, P and Srisuk, K}, title = {Potential impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Central Huai Luang Basin, Northeast Thailand.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {633}, number = {}, pages = {1518-1535}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.300}, pmid = {29758903}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Central Huai Luang Basin is one of the important rice producing areas of Udon Thani Province in Northeastern Thailand. The basin is underlain by the rock salt layers of the Maha Sarakham Formation and is the source of saline groundwater and soil salinity. The regional and local groundwater flow systems are the major mechanisms responsible for spreading saline groundwater and saline soils in this basin. Climate change may have an impact on groundwater recharge, on water table depth and the consequences of waterlogging, and on the distribution of soil salinity in this basin. Six future climate conditions from the SEACAM and CanESM2 models were downscaled to investigate the potential impact of future climate conditions on groundwater quantity and quality in this basin. The potential impact was investigated by using a set of numerical models, namely HELP3 and SEAWAT, to estimate the groundwater recharge and flow and the salt transport of groundwater simulation, respectively. The results revealed that within next 30years (2045), the future average annual temperature is projected to increase by 3.1°C and 2.2°C under SEACAM and CanESM2 models, respectively, while the future precipitation is projected to decrease by 20.85% under SEACAM and increase by 18.35% under the CanESM2. Groundwater recharge is projected to increase under the CanESM2 model and to slightly decrease under the SEACAM model. Moreover, for all future climate conditions, the depths of the groundwater water table are projected to continuously increase. The results showed the impact of climate change on salinity distribution for both the deep and shallow groundwater systems. The salinity distribution areas are projected to increase by about 8.08% and 56.92% in the deep and shallow groundwater systems, respectively. The waterlogging areas are also projected to expand by about 63.65% from the baseline period.}, }
@article {pmid29758885, year = {2018}, author = {Mahmoud, SH and Gan, TY}, title = {Impact of anthropogenic climate change and human activities on environment and ecosystem services in arid regions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {633}, number = {}, pages = {1329-1344}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.290}, pmid = {29758885}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Desert Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; Humans ; Saudi Arabia ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The implications of anthropogenic climate change, human activities and land use change (LUC) on the environment and ecosystem services in the coastal regions of Saudi Arabia were analyzed. Earth observations data was used to drive land use categories between 1970 and 2014. Next, a Markov-CA model was developed to characterize the dynamic of LUC between 2014 and 2100 and their impacts on regions' climate and environment. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to temperature, precipitation and greenhouse gases data to investigate the presence of anthropogenic climate change. Lastly, climate models were used to project future climate change between 2014 and 2100. The analysis of LUC revealed that between 1970 and 2014, built up areas experienced the greatest growth during the study period, leading to a significant monotonic trend. Urban areas increased by 2349.61km2 between 1970 and 2014, an average increase of >53.4km2/yr. The projected LUC between 2014 and 2100 indicate a continued increase in urban areas and irrigated cropland. Human alteration of land use from natural vegetation and forests to other uses after 1970, resulted in a loss, degradation, and fragmentation, all of which usually have devastating effects on the biodiversity of the region. Resulting in a statistically significant change point in temperature anomaly after 1968 with a warming trend of 0.24°C/decade and a downward trend in precipitation anomaly of 12.2mm/decade. Total greenhouse gas emissions including all anthropogenic sources showed a statistically significant positive trend of 78,090Kt/decade after 1991. This is reflected in the future projection of temperature anomaly between 1900 and 2100 with a future warming trend of 0.19°C/decade. In conclusion, human activities, industrial revelation, deforestation, land use transformation and increase in greenhouse gases had significant implications on the environment and ecosystem services of the study area.}, }
@article {pmid29753342, year = {2018}, author = {Booth, M}, title = {Climate Change and the Neglected Tropical Diseases.}, journal = {Advances in parasitology}, volume = {100}, number = {}, pages = {39-126}, doi = {10.1016/bs.apar.2018.02.001}, pmid = {29753342}, issn = {2163-6079}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to impact across every domain of society, including health. The majority of the world's population is susceptible to pathological, infectious disease whose life cycles are sensitive to environmental factors across different physical phases including air, water and soil. Nearly all so-called neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) fall into this category, meaning that future geographic patterns of transmission of dozens of infections are likely to be affected by climate change over the short (seasonal), medium (annual) and long (decadal) term. This review offers an introduction into the terms and processes deployed in modelling climate change and reviews the state of the art in terms of research into how climate change may affect future transmission of NTDs. The 34 infections included in this chapter are drawn from the WHO NTD list and the WHO blueprint list of priority diseases. For the majority of infections, some evidence is available of which environmental factors contribute to the population biology of parasites, vectors and zoonotic hosts. There is a general paucity of published research on the potential effects of decadal climate change, with some exceptions, mainly in vector-borne diseases.}, }
@article {pmid29753228, year = {2018}, author = {Eze, S and Palmer, SM and Chapman, PJ}, title = {Negative effects of climate change on upland grassland productivity and carbon fluxes are not attenuated by nitrogen status.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {637-638}, number = {}, pages = {398-407}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.032}, pmid = {29753228}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Effects of climate change on managed grassland carbon (C) fluxes and biomass production are not well understood. In this study, we investigated the individual and interactive effects of experimental warming (+3 °C above ambient summer daily range of 9-12 °C), supplemental precipitation (333 mm +15%) and drought (333 mm -23%) on plant biomass, microbial biomass C (MBC), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and dissolved organic C (DOC) flux in soil cores from two upland grasslands of different soil nitrogen (N) status (0.54% and 0.37%) in the UK. After one month of acclimation to ambient summer temperature and precipitation, five replicate cores of each treatment were subjected to three months of experimental warming, drought and supplemental precipitation, based on the projected regional summer climate by the end of the 21st Century, in a fully factorial design. NEE and DOC flux were measured throughout the experimental duration, alongside other environmental variables including soil temperature and moisture. Plant biomass and MBC were determined at the end of the experiment. Results showed that warming plus drought resulted in a significant decline in belowground plant biomass (-29 to -37%), aboveground plant biomass (-35 to -77%) and NEE (-13 to -29%), regardless of the N status of the soil. Supplemental precipitation could not reverse the negative effects of warming on the net ecosystem C uptake and plant biomass production. This was attributed to physiological stress imposed by warming which suggests that future summer climate will reduce the C sink capacity of the grasslands. Due to the low moisture retention observed in this study, and to verify our findings, it is recommended that future experiments aimed at measuring soil C dynamics under climate change should be carried out under field conditions. Longer term experiments are recommended to account for seasonal and annual variability, and adaptive changes in biota.}, }
@article {pmid29752540, year = {2018}, author = {Huang, J and Hao, H}, title = {Detecting mismatches in the phenology of cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering in response to climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-018-1552-0}, pmid = {29752540}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {41775109,41275119//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Current evidence suggests that climate change has directly affected the phenology of many invertebrate species associated with agriculture. Such changes in phenology have the potential to cause temporal mismatches between predators and prey and may lead to a disruption in natural pest control ecosystem. Understanding the synchrony between pest insects and host plant responses to climate change is a key step to improve integrated pest management strategies. Cotton bollworm larvae damage cotton, and thus, data from Magaiti County, China, collected during the period of 1990-2015 were analyzed to assess the effects of climate change on cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering. The results showed that a warming climate advanced the phenology of cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering. However, the phenological rate of change was faster in cotton bollworm larvae than that in cotton flowering, and the larval period was prolonged, resulting in a great increase of the larval population. The abrupt phenological changes in cotton bollworm larvae occurred earlier than that in cotton, and the abrupt phenological changes in cotton flowering occurred earlier than that in larval abundance. However, the timing of abrupt changes in larval abundance all occurred later than that in temperature. Thus, the abrupt changes that occurred in larvae, cotton flowering and climate were asynchronous. The interval days between the cotton flowering date (CFD) and the half-amount larvae date (HLD) expanded by 3.41 and 4.41 days with a 1 °C increase of Tmean in May and June, respectively. The asynchrony between cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering will likely broaden as the climate changes. The effective temperature in March and April and the end date of larvae (ED) were the primary factors affecting asynchrony.}, }
@article {pmid29751894, year = {2018}, author = {Martinez, PA and Andrade, MA and Bidau, CJ}, title = {Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genus Tityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina.}, journal = {Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology}, volume = {25}, number = {}, pages = {67-72}, doi = {10.1016/j.sste.2018.03.002}, pmid = {29751894}, issn = {1877-5853}, abstract = {The temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is changing. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic in time. We analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution by the construction of risk maps. Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future climatic conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we developed risk maps for the analyzed species. Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed a considerable increase of its potential area (ca. 37%) with future climate change. The species T. confluens and T. trivittatus that cause the highest number of accidents in Argentina are expected to show significant changes of their distributions in future scenarios. The former fact is worrying because Buenos Aires province is the more densely populated district in Argentina thus iable to become the most affected by T. trivittatus. These alterations of distributional patterns can lead to amplify the accident risk zones of venomous species, becoming an important subject of concern for public health policies.}, }
@article {pmid29751440, year = {2018}, author = {Luo, P and Zhou, M and Deng, H and Lyu, J and Cao, W and Takara, K and Nover, D and Geoffrey Schladow, S}, title = {Impact of forest maintenance on water shortages: Hydrologic modeling and effects of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {615}, number = {}, pages = {1355-1363}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.044}, pmid = {29751440}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The importance of water quantity for domestic and industrial water supply, agriculture, and the economy more broadly has led to the development of many water quantity assessment methods. In this study, surface flow and soil water in the forested upper reaches of the Yoshino River are compared using a distributed hydrological model with Forest Maintenance Module under two scenarios; before and after forest maintenance. We also examine the impact of forest maintenance on these variables during extreme droughts. Results show that surface flow and soil water increased after forest maintenance. In addition, projections of future water resources were estimated using a hydrological model and the output from a 20km mesh Global Climate Model (GCM20). River discharge for the near-future (2015-2039) is similar to that of the present (1979-2003). Estimated river discharge for the future (2075-2099) was found to be substantially more extreme than in the current period, with 12m3/s higher peak discharge in August and 7m3/s lower in July compared to the discharges of the present period. Soil water for the future is estimated to be lower than for the present and near future in May. The methods discussed in this study can be applied in other regions and the results help elucidate the impact of forests and climate change on water resources.}, }
@article {pmid29751428, year = {2018}, author = {Vasilevich, R and Lodygin, E and Beznosikov, V and Abakumov, E}, title = {Molecular composition of raw peat and humic substances from permafrost peat soils of European Northeast Russia as climate change markers.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {615}, number = {}, pages = {1229-1238}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.053}, pmid = {29751428}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Humic substances (HSs) from the mire peat soils of the forest-tundra zone of the European northeast part of Russia have been characterized in terms of molecular composition. This was accomplished using solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (13C NMR) techniques and electron spin resonance (ESR) spectroscopy. The composition depended on the intensity of cryogenic processes in the active layer, the quality of the humification precursors (the degree of peat material transformation), and the biochemical selection of aromatic fragments during humification. Humic acids (HAs) and fulvic acids (FAs) of the peat soils showed the presence of compounds with a low extent of condensation and a low portion of aromatic fragments, which increased with depth. A higher proportion of aliphatic carbon species was found in the HAs, indicating a low degree of organic matter stabilization. Based on the data from the two types of peat soils, we suggest that particular changes in the proportion of aromatic and unoxidized aliphatic fragments on the border of the bottom of the active layer and permafrost layers can be used as markers of current climatic change.}, }
@article {pmid29751421, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, X and Warren, R and He, Y and Ye, J and Li, Q and Wang, G}, title = {Impacts of climate change on TN load and its control in a River Basin with complex pollution sources.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {615}, number = {}, pages = {1155-1163}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.288}, pmid = {29751421}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {It is increasingly recognized that climate change could affect the quality of water through complex natural and anthropogenic mechanisms. Previous studies on climate change and water quality have mostly focused on assessing its impact on pollutant loads from agricultural runoff. A sub-daily SWAT model was developed to simulate the discharge, transport, and transformation of nitrogen from all known anthropogenic sources including industries, municipal sewage treatment plants, concentrated and scattered feedlot operations, rural households, and crop production in the Upper Huai River Basin. This is a highly polluted basin with total nitrogen (TN) concentrations frequently exceeding Class V of the Chinese Surface Water Quality Standard (GB3838-2002). Climate change projections produced by 16 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in the mid (2040-2060) and late (2070-2090) century were used to drive the SWAT model to evaluate the impacts of climate change on both the TN loads and the effectiveness of three water pollution control measures (reducing fertilizer use, constructing vegetative filter strips, and improving septic tank performance) in the basin. SWAT simulation results have indicated that climate change is likely to cause an increase in both monthly average and extreme TN loads in February, May, and November. The projected impact of climate change on TN loads in August is more varied between GCMs. In addition, climate change is projected to have a negative impact on the effectiveness of septic tanks in reducing TN loads, while its impacts on the other two measures are more uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, reducing fertilizer use remains the most effective measure for reducing TN loads under different climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, improving septic tank performance is relatively more effective in reducing annual TN loads, while constructing vegetative filter strips is more effective in reducing annual maximum monthly TN loads.}, }
@article {pmid29748990, year = {2018}, author = {Crickenberger, S and Wethey, DS}, title = {Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {3804-3819}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14300}, pmid = {29748990}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Range shifts due to annual variation in temperature are more tractable than range shifts linked to decadal to century long temperature changes due to climate change, providing natural experiments to determine the mechanisms responsible for driving long-term distributional shifts. In this study we couple physiologically grounded mechanistic models with biogeographic surveys in 2 years with high levels of annual temperature variation to disentangle the drivers of a historical range shift driven by climate change. The distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides has shifted 350 km poleward in the past half century along the east coast of the United States. Recruits were present throughout the historical range following the 2015 reproductive season, when temperatures were similar to those in the past century, and absent following the 2016 reproductive season when temperatures were warmer than they have been since 1870, the earliest date for temperature records. Our dispersal dependent mechanistic models of reproductive success were highly accurate and predicted patterns of reproduction success documented in field surveys throughout the historical range in 2015 and 2016. Our mechanistic models of reproductive success not only predicted recruitment dynamics near the range edge but also predicted interior range fragmentation in a number of years between 1870 and 2016. All recruits monitored within the historical range following the 2015 colonization died before 2016 suggesting juvenile survival was likely the primary driver of the historical range retraction. However, if 2016 is indicative of future temperatures mechanisms of range limitation will shift and reproductive failure will lead to further range retraction in the future. Mechanistic models are necessary for accurately predicting the effects of climate change on ranges of species.}, }
@article {pmid29748332, year = {2018}, author = {Burggren, W}, title = {Developmental phenotypic plasticity helps bridge stochastic weather events associated with climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {221}, number = {Pt 9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.161984}, pmid = {29748332}, issn = {1477-9145}, abstract = {The slow, inexorable rise in annual average global temperatures and acidification of the oceans are often advanced as consequences of global change. However, many environmental changes, especially those involving weather (as opposed to climate), are often stochastic, variable and extreme, particularly in temperate terrestrial or freshwater habitats. Moreover, few studies of animal and plant phenotypic plasticity employ realistic (i.e. short-term, stochastic) environmental change in their protocols. Here, I posit that the frequently abrupt environmental changes (days, weeks, months) accompanying much longer-term general climate change (e.g. global warming over decades or centuries) require consideration of the true nature of environmental change (as opposed to statistical means) coupled with an expansion of focus to consider developmental phenotypic plasticity. Such plasticity can be in multiple forms - obligatory/facultative, beneficial/deleterious - depending upon the degree and rate of environmental variability at specific points in organismal development. Essentially, adult phenotypic plasticity, as important as it is, will be irrelevant if developing offspring lack sufficient plasticity to create modified phenotypes necessary for survival.}, }
@article {pmid29743516, year = {2018}, author = {Tang, L and Duan, X and Kong, F and Zhang, F and Zheng, Y and Li, Z and Mei, Y and Zhao, Y and Hu, S}, title = {Influences of climate change on area variation of Qinghai Lake on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau since 1980s.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {7331}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-25683-3}, pmid = {29743516}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the most sensitive region to global warming on Earth. Qinghai Lake, the largest lake on the plateau, has experienced evident area variation during the past several decades. To quantify the area changes of Qinghai Lake, a satellite-based survey based on Landsat images from the 1980s to 2010s has been performed. In addition, meteorological data from all the seven available stations on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been analyzed. Area of Qinghai Lake shrank ~2% during 1987-2005, and then increased ~3% from 2005-2016. Meanwhile, the average annual temperature increased 0.319 °C/10 y in the past 50 years, where the value is 0.415 °C/10 y from 2005-2016. The structural equation modeling (SEM) shows that precipitation is the primary factor influencing the area of Qinghai Lake. Moreover, temperature might be tightly correlated with precipitation, snow line, and evaporation, thereby indirectly causes alternations of the lake area. This study elucidated the significant area variation of water body on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau under global warming since 1980s.}, }
@article {pmid29742473, year = {2018}, author = {Magalhães, L and de Montaudouin, X and Figueira, E and Freitas, R}, title = {Trematode infection modulates cockles biochemical response to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {637-638}, number = {}, pages = {30-40}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.432}, pmid = {29742473}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Resulting mainly from atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) build-up, seawater temperature rise is among the most important climate change related factors affecting costal marine ecosystems. Global warming will have implications on the water cycle, increasing the risk of heavy rainfalls and consequent freshwater input into the oceans but also increasing the frequency of extreme drought periods with consequent salinity increase. For Europe, by the end of the century, projections describe an increase of CO2 concentration up to 1120 ppm (corresponding to 0.5 pH unit decrease), an increase in the water temperature up to 4 °C and a higher frequency of heavy precipitation. These changes are likely to impact many biotic interactions, including host-parasite relationships which are particularly dependent on abiotic conditions. In the present study, we tested the hypothesis that the edible cockle, Cerastoderma edule, exposed to different salinity, temperature and pH levels as proxy for climate change, modify the infection success of the trematode parasite Himasthla elongata, with consequences to cockles biochemical performance. The results showed that the cercariae infection success increased with acidification but higher biochemical alterations were observed in infected cockles exposed to all abiotic experimental stressful conditions tested. The present study suggested that changes forecasted by many models may promote the proliferation of the parasites infective stages in many ecosystems leading to enhanced transmission, especially on temperate regions, that will influence the geographical distribution of some diseases and, probably, the survival capacity of infected bivalves.}, }
@article {pmid29739824, year = {2018}, author = {Philipsborn, RP and Chan, K}, title = {Climate Change and Global Child Health.}, journal = {Pediatrics}, volume = {141}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1542/peds.2017-3774}, pmid = {29739824}, issn = {1098-4275}, }
@article {pmid29738631, year = {2018}, author = {Heinemeyer, A and Swindles, GT}, title = {Unraveling past impacts of climate change and land management on historic peatland development using proxy-based reconstruction, monitoring data and process modeling.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14298}, pmid = {29738631}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Peatlands represent globally significant soil carbon stores that have been accumulating for millennia under water-logged conditions. However, deepening water-table depths (WTD) from climate change or human-induced drainage could stimulate decomposition resulting in peatlands turning from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Contemporary WTD ranges of testate amoebae (TA) are commonly used to predict past WTD in peatlands using quantitative transfer function models. Here we present, for the first time, a study comparing TA-based WTD reconstructions to instrumentally monitored WTD and hydrological model predictions using the MILLENNIA peatland model to examine past peatland responses to climate change and land management. Although there was very good agreement between monitored and modeled WTD, TA-reconstructed water table was consistently deeper. Predictions from a larger European TA transfer function data set were wetter, but the overall directional fit to observed WTD was better for a TA transfer function based on data from northern England. We applied a regression-based offset correction to the reconstructed WTD for the validation period (1931-2010). We then predicted WTD using available climate records as MILLENNIA model input and compared the offset-corrected TA reconstruction to MILLENNIA WTD predictions over an extended period (1750-1931) with available climate reconstructions. Although the comparison revealed striking similarities in predicted overall WTD patterns, particularly for a recent drier period (1965-1995), there were clear periods when TA-based WTD predictions underestimated (i.e. drier during 1830-1930) and overestimated (i.e. wetter during 1760-1830) past WTD compared to MILLENNIA model predictions. Importantly, simulated grouse moor management scenarios may explain the drier TA WTD predictions, resulting in considerable model predicted carbon losses and reduced methane emissions, mainly due to drainage. This study demonstrates the value of a site-specific and combined data-model validation step toward using TA-derived moisture conditions to understand past climate-driven peatland development and carbon budgets alongside modeling likely management impacts.}, }
@article {pmid29738581, year = {2018}, author = {Fodor, N and Foskolos, A and Topp, CFE and Moorby, JM and Pásztor, L and Foyer, CH}, title = {Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {e0197076}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0197076}, pmid = {29738581}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Cattle ; Climate Change/*economics ; Dairying/economics ; Female ; Heat-Shock Response/*physiology ; Hot Temperature ; Lactation/physiology ; Milk/*economics ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.}, }
@article {pmid29736330, year = {2018}, author = {Archis, JN and Akcali, C and Stuart, BL and Kikuchi, D and Chunco, AJ}, title = {Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e4647}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.4647}, pmid = {29736330}, issn = {2167-8359}, support = {K12 GM000678/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius, and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.}, }
@article {pmid29733640, year = {2018}, author = {Duan, H and Miller, TR and Liu, G and Zeng, X and Yu, K and Huang, Q and Zuo, J and Qin, Y and Li, J}, title = {Chilling Prospect: Climate Change Effects of Mismanaged Refrigerants in China.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {52}, number = {11}, pages = {6350-6356}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.7b05987}, pmid = {29733640}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {The global community has responded to the dual threats of ozone depletion and climate change from refrigerant emissions (e.g., chlorofluorocarbons, CFCs, and hydrofluorocarbons, HFCs) in refrigerators and air conditioners (RACs) by agreeing to phase out the production of the most damaging chemicals and replacing them with substitutes. Since these refrigerants are &quot;banked&quot; in products during their service life, they will continue to impact our environment for decades to come if they are released due to mismanagement at the end of life. Addressing such long-term impacts of refrigerants requires a dynamic understanding of the RACs' life cycle, which was largely overlooked in previous studies. Based on field surveys and a dynamic model, we reveal the lingering ozone depletion potential (ODP) and significant global warming potential (GWP) of scrap refrigerants in China, the world's largest producer (62%) and consumer (46%) of RACs in 2015, which comes almost entirely from air conditioners rather than refrigerators. If the use and waste management of RACs continue with the current trend, the total GWP of scrap refrigerants in China will peak by 2025 at a level of 135.2 ± 18.9 Mt CO2e (equal to approximately 1.2% ± 0.2% of China's total greenhouse gas emissions or the national total of either The Netherlands and Czech Republic in 2015). Our results imply an urgent need for improving the recycling and waste management of RACs in China.}, }
@article {pmid29729183, year = {2018}, author = {de Lafontaine, G and Napier, JD and Petit, RJ and Hu, FS}, title = {Invoking adaptation to decipher the genetic legacy of past climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {99}, number = {7}, pages = {1530-1546}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2382}, pmid = {29729183}, issn = {0012-9658}, abstract = {Persistence of natural populations during periods of climate change is likely to depend on migration (range shifts) or adaptation. These responses were traditionally considered discrete processes and conceptually divided into the realms of ecology and evolution. In a milestone paper, Davis and Shaw (2001) Science 292:673 argued that the interplay of adaptation and migration was central to biotic responses to Quaternary climate, but since then there has been no synthesis of efforts made to set up this research program. Here we review some of the salient findings from molecular genetic studies assessing ecological and evolutionary responses to Quaternary climate change. These studies have revolutionized our understanding of population processes associated with past species migration. However, knowledge remains limited about the role of natural selection for local adaptation of populations to Quaternary environmental fluctuations and associated range shifts, and for the footprints this might have left on extant populations. Next-generation sequencing technologies, high-resolution paleoclimate analyses, and advances in population genetic theory offer an unprecedented opportunity to test hypotheses about adaptation through time. Recent population genomics studies have greatly improved our understanding of the role of contemporary adaptation to local environments in shaping spatial patterns of genetic diversity across modern-day landscapes. Advances in this burgeoning field provide important conceptual and methodological bases to decipher the historical role of natural selection and assess adaptation to past environmental variation. We suggest that a process called &quot;temporal conditional neutrality&quot; has taken place: some alleles favored in glacial environments become selectively neutral in modern-day conditions, whereas some alleles that had been neutral during glacial periods become under selection in modern environments. Building on this view, we present a new integrative framework for addressing the interplay of demographic and adaptive evolutionary responses to Quaternary climate dynamics, the research agenda initially envisioned by Davis and Shaw (2001) Science 292:673.}, }
@article {pmid29728134, year = {2018}, author = {Rodríguez, MA and Angueyra, A and Cleef, AM and Van Andel, T}, title = {Ethnobotany of the Sierra Nevada del Cocuy-Güicán: climate change and conservation strategies in the Colombian Andes.}, journal = {Journal of ethnobiology and ethnomedicine}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {34}, doi = {10.1186/s13002-018-0227-6}, pmid = {29728134}, issn = {1746-4269}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Ethnobotany ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Plants, Edible ; Plants, Medicinal ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Sierra Nevada del Cocuy-Güicán in the Colombian Andes is protected as a National Natural Park since 1977 because of its fragile páramo ecosystems, extraordinary biodiversity, high plant endemism, and function as water reservoir. The vegetation on this mountain is threatened by expanding agriculture, deforestation, tourism, and climate change. We present an ethnobotanical inventory among local farmer communities and discuss the effects of vegetation change on the availability of useful plants.<br><br>METHODS: We used 76 semi-structured, 4 in-depth interviews, and 247 botanical collections to record the ethnoflora of the farmers and surveyed from the high Andean forest to the super-páramo, including native and introduced species. We organized 3 participative workshops with local children, high school students, and campesinos' women to share the data we acquired in the field and empower local plant conservation awareness.<br><br>RESULTS: We encountered 174 useful plants, most of them native to the area (68%) and almost one third introduced (32%). The Compositae was the most species-rich family, followed by Lamiaceae, Poaceae, and Rosaceae. The majority of plant species were used as medicine, followed by food, firewood, and domestic tools. Local farmers reported declining numbers of páramo species, which were now only found at higher altitudes than before. Although our informants were worried about the preservation of their natural resources and noticed the effects of climate change, for several commercial species, unsustainable land use and overharvesting seemed to be the direct cause of declining medicinal plant resources rather than climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We recommend conservation plans that include vegetation monitoring, people's perceptions on climate change, and participative actions with the communities of the Sierra Nevada del Cocuy-Güicán.}, }
@article {pmid29727927, year = {2018}, author = {Sundt-Hansen, LE and Hedger, RD and Ugedal, O and Diserud, OH and Finstad, AG and Sauterleute, JF and Tøfte, L and Alfredsen, K and Forseth, T}, title = {Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {631-632}, number = {}, pages = {1005-1017}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.058}, pmid = {29727927}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Environmental Restoration and Remediation ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers ; Salmo salar/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon.}, }
@article {pmid29727836, year = {2018}, author = {Vigliano, PH and Rechencq, MM and Fernández, MV and Lippolt, GE and Macchi, PJ}, title = {Fish thermal habitat current use and simulation of thermal habitat availability in lakes of the Argentine Patagonian Andes under climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {636}, number = {}, pages = {688-698}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.237}, pmid = {29727836}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Habitat use in relation to the thermal habitat availability and food source as a forcing factor on habitat selection and use of Percichthys trucha (Creole perch), Oncorhynchus mykiss (rainbow trout), Salmo trutta (brown trout) and Salvelinus fontinalis (brook trout) were determined as well as future potential thermal habitat availability for these species under climate change scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. This study was conducted in three interconnected lakes of Northern Patagonia (Moreno Lake system). Data on fish abundance was obtained through gill netting and hydroacoustics, and thermal profiles and fish thermal habitat suitability index curves were used to identify current species-specific thermal habitat use. Surface air temperatures from the (NEX GDDP) database for RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 were used to model monthly average temperatures of the water column up to the year 2099 for all three lakes, and to determine potential future habitat availability. In addition, data on fish diet were used to determine whether food could act as a forcing factor in current habitat selection. The four species examined do not use all the thermally suitable habitats currently available to them in the three lakes, and higher fish densities are not necessarily constrained to their &quot;fundamental thermal niches&quot; sensu Magnuson et al. (1979), as extensive use is made of less suitable habitats. This is apparently brought about by food availability acting as a major forcing factor in habitat selection and use. Uncertainties related to the multidimensionality inherent to habitat selection and climate change imply that fish resource management in Patagonia will not be feasible through traditional incremental policies and strategic adjustments based on short-term predictions, but will have to become highly opportunistic and adaptive.}, }
@article {pmid29726229, year = {2018}, author = {Liu, JC and Wang, ZL and Yue, SC and Li, SQ}, title = {[Effects of plastic film mulching and nitrogen application rate on net global warming potential in semiarid rain-fed maize cropland].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {1197-1204}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201804.028}, pmid = {29726229}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Crops, Agricultural ; Fertilizers ; *Global Warming ; Nitrogen ; *Plastics ; Rain ; Soil ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {A one-year field experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of plastic film mulching (FM) and nitrogen application rates applied to rain-fed maize fields on net global warming potential (Net GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) at the Changwu Agricultural and Ecological Experimental Station. Both GWP and GHGI were affected by the plastic film mulching and nitrogen application rate. Under the FM treatment, maize yield ranged from 1643 to 16699 kg·hm-2, the net GWP (CO2-eq) ranged from 595 to 4376 kg·hm-2·a-1, and the GHGI (CO2-eq) ranged from 213 to 358 kg·t-1. The grain yield of maize, net GWP and GHGI for the UM (no mulching) treatment were 956 to 8821 kg·hm-2, 342 to 4004 kg·hm-2·a-1 and 204 to 520 kg·t-1, respectively. The results suggested that plastic film mulching could simultaneously improve grain yield and decrease GHGI in rain-fed cropland along with nitrogen fertilizer of 250 kg·hm-2.}, }
@article {pmid29726224, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, YB and Gao, CH and Qin, H}, title = {[Prediction of the suitable distribution and responses to climate change of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {1156-1162}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201804.011}, pmid = {29726224}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Elaeagnaceae ; Endangered Species ; Entropy ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding the responses of the habitats of endangered species to climate change is of great significance for biodiversity conservation and the maintenance of the integrity of ecosystem function. In this study, the potential suitable distribution habitats of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province was simulated by the maximum entropy model, based on 73 occurrence field records and 35 environmental factors under the current climate condition. Moreover, with the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the dynamics of distribution pattern was analyzed for E. mollis under different climate scenarios. The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.987, indicating that the data fitted the model very well and that the prediction was highly reliable. Results from the Jackknife test showed that the main environmental variables affecting the E. mollis distribution were the precipitation seasonality, the range of annual temperature, annual mean temperature, isothermality, annual precipitation, and pH of topsoil, with the cumulative contribution reaching 94.8%. At present, the potential suitable habitats of E. mollis are mainly located in two regions, the southern of Lyuliang Mountain and Zhongtiao Mountain in Shanxi Province. Under different climate scenarios, the total suitable area of E. mollis would shrink in 2070s. In RCP 2.6 the suitable area would firstly increase and then decrease, while in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 it would response sensitively and first decrease and then increase. Its spatial distribution in two suitable regions would show divergent responses to climate change. The distribution in southern Lyuliang Mountain would fluctuate slightly in latitudinal direction, while that in Zhongtiao Mountain would migrate along elevation.}, }
@article {pmid29723929, year = {2018}, author = {Sarà, G and Gouhier, TC and Brigolin, D and Porporato, EMD and Mangano, MC and Mirto, S and Mazzola, A and Pastres, R}, title = {Predicting shifting sustainability trade-offs in marine finfish aquaculture under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {3654-3665}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14296}, pmid = {29723929}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Defining sustainability goals is a crucial but difficult task because it often involves the quantification of multiple interrelated and sometimes conflicting components. This complexity may be exacerbated by climate change, which will increase environmental vulnerability in aquaculture and potentially compromise the ability to meet the needs of a growing human population. Here, we developed an approach to inform sustainable aquaculture by quantifying spatio-temporal shifts in critical trade-offs between environmental costs and benefits using the time to reach the commercial size as a possible proxy of economic implications of aquaculture under climate change. Our results indicate that optimizing aquaculture practices by minimizing impact (this study considers as impact a benthic carbon deposition ≥ 1 g C m-2 day-1) will become increasingly difficult under climate change. Moreover, an increasing temperature will produce a poleward shift in sustainability trade-offs. These findings suggest that future sustainable management strategies and plans will need to account for the effects of climate change across scales. Overall, our results highlight the importance of integrating environmental factors in order to sustainably manage critical natural resources under shifting climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid29722211, year = {2018}, author = {Luo, X and Wang, YL and Zhang, JQ}, title = {[Simulating the effects of climate change and fire disturbance on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {3}, pages = {713-724}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201803.011}, pmid = {29722211}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; Fires ; Forests ; *Taiga ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Predicting the effects of climate warming and fire disturbance on forest aboveground biomass is a central task of studies in terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The alteration of temperature, precipitation, and disturbance regimes induced by climate warming will affect the carbon dynamics of forest ecosystem. Boreal forest is an important forest type in China, the responses of which to climate warming and fire disturbance are increasingly obvious. In this study, we used a forest landscape model LANDIS PRO to simulate the effects of climate change on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, and compared direct effects of climate warming and the effects of climate warming-induced fires on forest aboveground biomass. The results showed that the aboveground biomass in this area increased under climate warming scenarios and fire disturbance scenarios with increased intensity. Under the current climate and fire regime scenario, the aboveground biomass in this area was (97.14±5.78) t·hm-2, and the value would increase up to (97.93±5.83) t·hm-2 under the B1F2 scenario. Under the A2F3 scenario, aboveground biomass at landscape scale was relatively higher at the simulated periods of year 100-150 and year 150-200, and the value were (100.02±3.76) t·hm-2 and (110.56±4.08) t·hm-2, respectively. Compared to the current fire regime scenario, the predicted biomass at landscape scale was increased by (0.56±1.45) t·hm-2 under the CF2 scenario (fire intensity increased by 30%) at some simulated periods, and the aboveground biomass was reduced by (7.39±1.79) t·hm-2 in CF3 scenario (fire intensity increased by 230%) at the entire simulation period. There were significantly different responses between coniferous and broadleaved species under future climate warming scenarios, in that the simulated biomass for both Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla showed decreasing trend with climate change, whereas the simulated biomass for Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica, Picea koraiensis and Populus davidiana showed increasing trend at different degrees during the entire simulation period. There was a time lag for the direct effect of climate warming on biomass for coniferous and broadleaved species. The response time of coniferous species to climate warming was 25-30 years, which was longer than that for broadleaf species. The forest landscape in the Great Xing'an Mountains was sensitive to the interactive effect of climate warming (high CO2 emissions) and high intensity fire disturbance. Future climate warming and high intensity forest fire disturbance would significantly change the composition and structure of forest ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid29722153, year = {2018}, author = {Huey, RB and Buckley, LB and Du, W}, title = {Biological buffers and the impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12321}, pmid = {29722153}, issn = {1749-4877}, abstract = {This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid29721700, year = {2018}, author = {Levy, K and Smith, SM and Carlton, EJ}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Waterborne Diseases: Moving Toward Designing Interventions.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {272-282}, doi = {10.1007/s40572-018-0199-7}, pmid = {29721700}, issn = {2196-5412}, support = {K01 AI103544/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: Climate change threatens progress achieved in global reductions of infectious disease rates over recent decades. This review summarizes literature on potential impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases, organized around a framework of questions that can be addressed depending on available data.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change may alter the incidence of waterborne diseases, and diarrheal diseases in particular. Much of the existing work examines historical relationships between weather and diarrhea incidence, with a limited number of studies projecting future disease rates. Some studies take social and ecological factors into account in considerations of historical relationships, but few have done so in projecting future conditions. The field is at a point of transition, toward incorporating social and ecological factors into understanding the relationships between climatic factors and diarrheal diseases and using this information for future projections. The integration of these components helps identify vulnerable populations and prioritize adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid29721285, year = {2018}, author = {Baattrup-Pedersen, A and Garssen, A and Göthe, E and Hoffmann, CC and Oddershede, A and Riis, T and van Bodegom, PM and Larsen, SE and Soons, M}, title = {Structural and functional responses of plant communities to climate change-mediated alterations in the hydrology of riparian areas in temperate Europe.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {8}, pages = {4120-4135}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.3973}, pmid = {29721285}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The hydrology of riparian areas changes rapidly these years because of climate change-mediated alterations in precipitation patterns. In this study, we used a large-scale in situ experimental approach to explore effects of drought and flooding on plant taxonomic diversity and functional trait composition in riparian areas in temperate Europe. We found significant effects of flooding and drought in all study areas, the effects being most pronounced under flooded conditions. In near-stream areas, taxonomic diversity initially declined in response to both drought and flooding (although not significantly so in all years) and remained stable under drought conditions, whereas the decline continued under flooded conditions. For most traits, we found clear indications that the functional diversity also declined under flooded conditions, particularly in near-stream areas, indicating that fewer strategies succeeded under flooded conditions. Consistent changes in community mean trait values were also identified, but fewer than expected. This can have several, not mutually exclusive, explanations. First, different adaptive strategies may coexist in a community. Second, intraspecific variability was not considered for any of the traits. For example, many species can elongate shoots and petioles that enable them to survive shallow, prolonged flooding but such abilities will not be captured when applying mean trait values. Third, we only followed the communities for 3 years. Flooding excludes species intolerant of the altered hydrology, whereas the establishment of new species relies on time-dependent processes, for instance the dispersal and establishment of species within the areas. We expect that altered precipitation patterns will have profound consequences for riparian vegetation in temperate Europe. Riparian areas will experience loss of taxonomic and functional diversity and, over time, possibly also alterations in community trait responses that may have cascading effects on ecosystem functioning.}, }
@article {pmid29718919, year = {2018}, author = {Wabnitz, CCC and Lam, VWY and Reygondeau, G and Teh, LCL and Al-Abdulrazzak, D and Khalfallah, M and Pauly, D and Palomares, MLD and Zeller, D and Cheung, WWL}, title = {Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {e0194537}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0194537}, pmid = {29718919}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aquatic Organisms ; *Biodiversity ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Fisheries/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Indian Ocean ; }, abstract = {Climate change-reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions-is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region's diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.}, }
@article {pmid29718292, year = {2018}, author = {Piffaretti, JC and Schink, B and Semenza, JC}, title = {Editorial to the thematic issue climate change and microbiology.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology letters}, volume = {365}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsle/fny080}, pmid = {29718292}, issn = {1574-6968}, }
@article {pmid29715668, year = {2018}, author = {Tommaso, C and Emanuele, B and Guido, P and Lucia, P and Vincenza, CM and Riccardo, V}, title = {Soil organic carbon pool's contribution to climate change mitigation on marginal land of a Mediterranean montane area in Italy.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {218}, number = {}, pages = {593-601}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.04.093}, pmid = {29715668}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {To evaluate the mitigation potential provided by the SOC pool, we investigated the impact of woody encroachment in the 0-30 cm depth of mineral soil across a natural succession from abandoned pastures and croplands to broadleaves forests on the central Apennine in Italy. In parallel, to assess the effect of the land use change (LUC) from cropland to pasture, a series of pastures established on former agricultural sites, abandoned at different time in the past, were also investigated. Our results show that woody encroachment on former pastures and croplands contributes largely to mitigate climate change, with an increase of the original SOC stock of 45% (40.5 Mg C ha-1) and 120% (66.5 Mg C ha-1), respectively. Also the LUC from croplands to pastures, greatly contributes to climate change mitigation trough a SOC increase of about 80% of the original SOC (45.9 Mg C ha-1). The management of abandoned lands represent a crucial point in the mitigation potential of agriculture and forestry activities, and particularly the role of the SOC pool. A policy effort should focus on minimizing the risk of speculative management options, particularly when the value of woody biomass become convenient to supply new energy systems allowing monetizing a long term forests productivity. In conclusion, despite both the land abandonment and the LUC can have a different impact on the SOC pool under different climatic conditions, these results can be useful to improve the SOC estimates in the National greenhouse gases Inventory at country level.}, }
@article {pmid29715345, year = {2018}, author = {Koh, HK and McCarthy, GA}, title = {Private and Public Sector Responses to Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {319}, number = {17}, pages = {1756-1757}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2018.4804}, pmid = {29715345}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Commerce ; Cooperative Behavior ; Interinstitutional Relations ; *International Cooperation ; *Private Sector ; *Public Sector ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid29714828, year = {2018}, author = {Pires, APF and Srivastava, DS and Marino, NAC and MacDonald, AAM and Figueiredo-Barros, MP and Farjalla, VF}, title = {Interactive effects of climate change and biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {99}, number = {5}, pages = {1203-1213}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2202}, pmid = {29714828}, issn = {0012-9658}, abstract = {Climate change and biodiversity loss are expected to simultaneously affect ecosystems, however research on how each driver mediates the effect of the other has been limited in scope. The multiple stressor framework emphasizes non-additive effects, but biodiversity may also buffer the effects of climate change, and climate change may alter which mechanisms underlie biodiversity-function relationships. Here, we performed an experiment using tank bromeliad ecosystems to test the various ways that rainfall changes and litter diversity may jointly determine ecological processes. Litter diversity and rainfall changes interactively affected multiple functions, but how depends on the process measured. High litter diversity buffered the effects of altered rainfall on detritivore communities, evidence of insurance against impacts of climate change. Altered rainfall affected the mechanisms by which litter diversity influenced decomposition, reducing the importance of complementary attributes of species (complementarity effects), and resulting in an increasing dependence on the maintenance of specific species (dominance effects). Finally, altered rainfall conditions prevented litter diversity from fueling methanogenesis, because such changes in rainfall reduced microbial activity by 58%. Together, these results demonstrate that the effects of climate change and biodiversity loss on ecosystems cannot be understood in isolation and interactions between these stressors can be multifaceted.}, }
@article {pmid29712890, year = {2018}, author = {Johnson, NC and Xie, SP and Kosaka, Y and Li, X}, title = {Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1724}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-04040-y}, pmid = {29712890}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.}, }
@article {pmid29712800, year = {2018}, author = {Adger, WN and Brown, I and Surminski, S}, title = {Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {376}, number = {2121}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2018.0106}, pmid = {29712800}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.}, }
@article {pmid29712792, year = {2018}, author = {Brown, I}, title = {Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {376}, number = {2121}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2017.0297}, pmid = {29712792}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.}, }
@article {pmid29712791, year = {2018}, author = {Warren, RF and Wilby, RL and Brown, K and Watkiss, P and Betts, RA and Murphy, JM and Lowe, JA}, title = {Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {376}, number = {2121}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2017.0295}, pmid = {29712791}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.}, }
@article {pmid29710784, year = {2018}, author = {Wolkinger, B and Haas, W and Bachner, G and Weisz, U and Steininger, K and Hutter, HP and Delcour, J and Griebler, R and Mittelbach, B and Maier, P and Reifeltshammer, R}, title = {Evaluating Health Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation in Urban Mobility.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15050880}, pmid = {29710784}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {There is growing recognition that implementation of low-carbon policies in urban passenger transport has near-term health co-benefits through increased physical activity and improved air quality. Nevertheless, co-benefits and related cost reductions are often not taken into account in decision processes, likely because they are not easy to capture. In an interdisciplinary multi-model approach we address this gap, investigating the co-benefits resulting from increased physical activity and improved air quality due to climate mitigation policies for three urban areas. Additionally we take a (macro-)economic perspective, since that is the ultimate interest of policy-makers. Methodologically, we link a transport modelling tool, a transport emission model, an emission dispersion model, a health model and a macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze three climate change mitigation scenarios. We show that higher levels of physical exercise and reduced exposure to pollutants due to mitigation measures substantially decrease morbidity and mortality. Expenditures are mainly born by the public sector but are mostly offset by the emerging co-benefits. Our macroeconomic results indicate a strong positive welfare effect, yet with slightly negative GDP and employment effects. We conclude that considering economic co-benefits of climate change mitigation policies in urban mobility can be put forward as a forceful argument for policy makers to take action.}, }
@article {pmid29710652, year = {2018}, author = {de Jong, P and Tanajura, CAS and Sánchez, AS and Dargaville, R and Kiperstok, A and Torres, EA}, title = {Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {634}, number = {}, pages = {1540-1553}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.256}, pmid = {29710652}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {By the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region could decrease by approximately 25-50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the 1961-90 long-term average. Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been below its long-term average every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be even more severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for 2100, based on the IPCC high emissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production.}, }
@article {pmid29710632, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, K and Yao, L and Meng, J and Tao, J}, title = {Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {634}, number = {}, pages = {1326-1334}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.112}, pmid = {29710632}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; *Models, Biological ; Paeonia/*physiology ; Plant Dispersal ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), an economically important plant genus, includes many popular ornamentals and medicinal plant species used in traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about the properties of the habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping the suitability. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. delavayi and P. rockii by Maxent, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results showed that the moderate and high suitable areas for P. delavayi and P. rockii encompassed ca. 4.46×105km2 and 1.89×105km2, respectively. Temperature seasonality and isothermality were identified as the most critical factors shaping P. delavayi distribution, and UVB-4 and annual precipitation were identified as the most critical for shaping P. rockii distribution. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), the range of both species increased as global warming intensified; however, under the scenario with higher concentrations of emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range of P. delavayi decreased while P. rockii increased. Overall, our prediction showed that a shift in distribution of suitable habitat to higher elevations would gradually become more significant. The information gained from this study should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for these species.}, }
@article {pmid29710627, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, WJ and He, HS and Thompson, FR and Spetich, MA and Fraser, JS}, title = {Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {634}, number = {}, pages = {1214-1221}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.353}, pmid = {29710627}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Forests ; Plant Dispersal ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are not well represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts. We investigate how species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity affect species distribution shifts. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest dynamic model LANDIS PRO, which incorporates site-scale tree species demography and competition, landscape-scale dispersal and disturbances, and regional-scale abiotic controls, to simulate the distribution shifts of four representative tree species with distinct biological traits in the central hardwood forest region of United States. Our results suggested that biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age) were important for determining tree species distribution shifts. Environmental heterogeneity, on average, reduced shift rates by 8% compared to perfect environmental conditions. The average distribution shift rates ranged from 24 to 200myear-1 under climate change scenarios, implying that many tree species may not able to keep up with climate change because of limited dispersal capacity, long generation time, and environmental heterogeneity. We suggest that climate-distribution models should include species demographic processes (e.g., fecundity, dispersal, colonization), biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age), and environmental heterogeneity (e.g., habitat fragmentation) to improve future predictions of species distribution shifts in response to changing climates.}, }
@article {pmid29710574, year = {2018}, author = {Chiabai, A and Quiroga, S and Martinez-Juarez, P and Higgins, S and Taylor, T}, title = {The nexus between climate change, ecosystem services and human health: Towards a conceptual framework.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {635}, number = {}, pages = {1191-1204}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.323}, pmid = {29710574}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Humans ; }, abstract = {This paper addresses the impact that changes in natural ecosystems can have on health and wellbeing focusing on the potential co-benefits that green spaces could provide when introduced as climate change adaptation measures. Ignoring such benefits could lead to sub-optimal planning and decision-making. A conceptual framework, building on the ecosystem-enriched Driver, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action model (eDPSEEA), is presented to aid in clarifying the relational structure between green spaces and human health, taking climate change as the key driver. The study has the double intention of (i) summarising the literature with a special emphasis on the ecosystem and health perspectives, as well as the main theories behind these impacts, and (ii) modelling these findings into a framework that allows for multidisciplinary approaches to the underlying relations between human health and green spaces. The paper shows that while the literature based on the ecosystem perspective presents a well-documented association between climate, health and green spaces, the literature using a health-based perspective presents mixed evidence in some cases. The role of contextual factors and the exposure mechanism are rarely addressed. The proposed framework could serve as a multidisciplinary knowledge platform for multi-perspecitve analysis and discussion among experts and stakeholders, as well as to support the operationalization of quantitative assessment and modelling exercises.}, }
@article {pmid29710562, year = {2018}, author = {Mazaris, AD and Germond, B}, title = {Bridging the gap between climate change and maritime security: Towards a comprehensive framework for planning.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {635}, number = {}, pages = {1076-1080}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.136}, pmid = {29710562}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {For the past two decades, the need to shield strategic maritime interests, to tackle criminality and terrorism at or from the sea and to conserve valuable marine resources has been recognized at the highest political level. Acknowledging and accounting for the interplay between climate change, the vulnerability of coastal populations and the occurrence of maritime criminality should be part of any ocean governance process. Still, given the complex interactions between climate change and socio-economic components of the marine realm, it has become urgent to establish a solid methodological framework, which could lead to sound and effective decisions. We propose that any such framework should not be built from scratch. The adaptation of well tested, existing uncertainty-management tools, such as Cumulative Effect Assessments, could serve as a solid basis to account for the magnitude and directionality of the dependencies between the impacts of climate change and the occurrence of maritime criminality, offering spatial explicit risk evaluations. Multi-Criteria Decision Making could then be employed to better and faster inform decision-makers. These mechanisms could provide a framework for comparison of alternative mitigation and adaptation actions and are essential in assessing responses to tackle maritime crime in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29709838, year = {2018}, author = {Lu, Y and Yuan, J and Lu, X and Su, C and Zhang, Y and Wang, C and Cao, X and Li, Q and Su, J and Ittekkot, V and Garbutt, RA and Bush, S and Fletcher, S and Wagey, T and Kachur, A and Sweijd, N}, title = {Major threats of pollution and climate change to global coastal ecosystems and enhanced management for sustainability.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {239}, number = {}, pages = {670-680}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2018.04.016}, pmid = {29709838}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Pollution ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Coastal zone is of great importance in the provision of various valuable ecosystem services. However, it is also sensitive and vulnerable to environmental changes due to high human populations and interactions between the land and ocean. Major threats of pollution from over enrichment of nutrients, increasing metals and persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and climate change have led to severe ecological degradation in the coastal zone, while few studies have focused on the combined impacts of pollution and climate change on the coastal ecosystems at the global level. A global overview of nutrients, metals, POPs, and major environmental changes due to climate change and their impacts on coastal ecosystems was carried out in this study. Coasts of the Eastern Atlantic and Western Pacific were hotspots of concentrations of several pollutants, and mostly affected by warming climate. These hotspots shared the same features of large populations, heavy industry and (semi-) closed sea. Estimation of coastal ocean capital, integrated management of land-ocean interaction in the coastal zone, enhancement of integrated global observation system, and coastal ecosystem-based management can play effective roles in promoting sustainable management of coastal marine ecosystems. Enhanced management from the perspective of mitigating pollution and climate change was proposed.}, }
@article {pmid29709284, year = {2018}, author = {Williams, ML and Lott, MC and Kitwiroon, N and Dajnak, D and Walton, H and Holland, M and Pye, S and Fecht, D and Toledano, MB and Beevers, SD}, title = {The Lancet Countdown on health benefits from the UK Climate Change Act: a modelling study for Great Britain.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {5}, pages = {e202-e213}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6}, pmid = {29709284}, issn = {2542-5196}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change poses a dangerous and immediate threat to the health of populations in the UK and worldwide. We aimed to model different scenarios to assess the health co-benefits that result from mitigation actions.<br><br>METHODS: In this modelling study, we combined a detailed techno-economic energy systems model (UK TIMES), air pollutant emission inventories, a sophisticated air pollution model (Community Multi-scale Air Quality), and previously published associations between concentrations and health outcomes. We used four scenarios and focused on the air pollution implications from fine particulate matter (PM2·5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone. The four scenarios were baseline, which assumed no further climate actions beyond those already achieved and did not meet the UK's Climate Change Act (at least an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2050 compared with 1990) target; nuclear power, which met the Climate Change Act target with a limited increase in nuclear power; low-greenhouse gas, which met the Climate Change Act target without any policy constraint on nuclear build; and a constant scenario that held 2011 air pollutant concentrations constant until 2050. We predicted the health and economic impacts from air pollution for the scenarios until 2050, and the inequalities in exposure across different socioeconomic groups.<br><br>FINDINGS: NO2 concentrations declined leading to 4 892 000 life-years saved for the nuclear power scenario and 7 178 000 life-years saved for the low-greenhouse gas scenario from 2011 to 2154. However, the associations that we used might overestimate the effects of NO2 itself. PM2·5 concentrations in Great Britain are predicted to decrease between 42% and 44% by 2050 compared with 2011 in the scenarios that met the Climate Change Act targets, especially those from road traffic and off-road machinery. These reductions in PM2·5 are tempered by a 2035 peak (and subsequent decline) in biomass (wood burning), and by a large, projected increase in future demand for transport leading to potential increases in non-exhaust particulate matter emissions. The potential use of biomass in poorly controlled technologies to meet the Climate Change Act commitments would represent an important missed opportunity (resulting in 472 000 more life-years lost from PM2·5 in the low-greenhouse gas scenario and 1 122 000 more life-years lost in the nuclear power scenario from PM2·5 than the baseline scenario). Although substantial overall improvements in absolute amounts of exposure are seen compared with 2011, these outcomes mask the fact that health inequalities seen (in which socioeconomically disadvantaged populations are among the most exposed) are projected to be maintained up to 2050.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: The modelling infrastructure created will help future researchers explore a wider range of climate policy scenarios, including local, European, and global scenarios. The need to strengthen the links between climate change policy objectives and public health imperatives, and the benefits to societal wellbeing that might result is urgent.<br><br>FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.}, }
@article {pmid29707963, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, Y and An, S and Xing, M and Wan, Y and Liu, Q}, title = {Global warming and heart disease prevention.}, journal = {European journal of preventive cardiology}, volume = {25}, number = {12}, pages = {1342}, doi = {10.1177/2047487318774846}, pmid = {29707963}, issn = {2047-4881}, }
@article {pmid29706437, year = {2018}, author = {Dasgupta, S}, title = {Burden of climate change on malaria mortality.}, journal = {International journal of hygiene and environmental health}, volume = {221}, number = {5}, pages = {782-791}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijheh.2018.04.003}, pmid = {29706437}, issn = {1618-131X}, abstract = {In 2016, an estimated 445,000 deaths and 216 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposures such as temperature and precipitation make malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global malaria mortality dataset for 105 countries between 1980 and 2010, we find a non-linear relationship between temperature and malaria mortality and estimate that the global optimal temperature threshold beyond which all-age malaria mortality increases is 20.8 °C, while in the case of child mortality; a significantly lower optimum temperature of 19.3° is estimated. Our results also suggest that this optimal temperature is 28.4 °C and 26.3 °C in Africa and Asia, respectively - the continents where malaria is most prevalent. Furthermore, we estimate that child mortality (ages 0-4) is likely to increase by up to 20% in some areas due to climate change by the end of the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid29705434, year = {2018}, author = {Mahmoud, SH and Gan, TY}, title = {Urbanization and climate change implications in flood risk management: Developing an efficient decision support system for flood susceptibility mapping.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {636}, number = {}, pages = {152-167}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.282}, pmid = {29705434}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The effects of urbanization and climate change impact to the flood risk of two governorates in Egypt were analyzed. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to the annual rainfall, rainfall anomaly, and temperature anomaly of both study sites. Next, change points and trends of the annual and monthly surface runoff data generated by the Curve Number method over 1948-2014 were also analyzed to detect the effects of urbanization on the surface runoff. Lastly, a GIS decision support system was developed to delineate flood susceptibility zones for the two governorates. The significant decline in annual rainfall and rainfall anomaly after 1994 at 8.96 and 15.3 mm/decade respectively was likely due to climate change impact, especially significant warming trend since 1976 at 0.16 °C/decade, though that could partly be attributed to rapid urbanization. Since 1970, effects of urbanization to flood risk are clear, because despite a decline in rainfall, the annual surface runoff and runoff anomaly show positive trends of 12.7 and of 14.39 mm/decade, respectively. Eleven flood contributing factors have been identified and used in mapping flood susceptibility zones of both sites. In the El-Beheira governorate, 9.2%, 17.9%, 32.3%, 28.3% and 12.3% of its area are categorized as very high, high, moderate, low and very low susceptibility to flooding, respectively. Similarly, in Alexandria governorate, 15.9%, 33.5%, 41%, 8.8% and 0.8% of its area are categorized as very high, high, moderate, low and very low susceptibility to flooding, respectively. Very high and high susceptible zones are located in the northern, northwestern and northeastern parts of the Beheira governorates, and in the northeastern and northwestern parts of Alexandria. The flood related information obtained in this study will be useful to assist mitigating potential flood damages and future land use planning of both governorates of Egypt.}, }
@article {pmid29704714, year = {2018}, author = {Crick, F and Jenkins, K and Surminski, S}, title = {Strengthening insurance partnerships in the face of climate change - Insights from an agent-based model of flood insurance in the UK.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {636}, number = {}, pages = {192-204}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.239}, pmid = {29704714}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Multisectoral partnerships are increasingly cited as a mechanism to deliver and improve disaster risk management. Yet, partnerships are not a panacea and more research is required to understand the role that they can play in disaster risk management and particularly disaster risk reduction. This paper investigates how partnerships can incentivise flood risk reduction by focusing on the UK public-private partnership on flood insurance. Developing the right flood insurance arrangements to incentivise flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change is a key challenge. In the face of rising flood risks due to climate change and socio-economic development insurance partnerships can no longer afford to focus only on the risk transfer function. However, while expectations of the insurance industry have traditionally been high when it comes to flood risk management, the insurance industry alone will not provide the solution to the challenge of rising risks. The case of flood insurance in the UK illustrates this: even national government and industry together cannot fully address these risks and other actors need to be involved to create strong incentives for risk reduction. Using an agent-based model focused on surface water flood risk in London we analyse how other partners could strengthen the insurance partnership by reducing flood risk and thus helping to maintain affordable insurance premiums. Our findings are relevant for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and also internationally.}, }
@article {pmid29702612, year = {2018}, author = {Fischer, H and Schütte, S and Depoux, A and Amelung, D and Sauerborn, R}, title = {How Well Do COP22 Attendees Understand Graphs on Climate Change Health Impacts from the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report?.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15050875}, pmid = {29702612}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Graphs are prevalent in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), often depicting key points and major results. However, the popularity of graphs in the IPCC reports contrasts with a neglect of empirical tests of their understandability. Here we put the understandability of three graphs taken from the Health chapter of the Fifth Assessment Report to an empirical test. We present a pilot study where we evaluate objective understanding (mean accuracy in multiple-choice questions) and subjective understanding (self-assessed confidence in accuracy) in a sample of attendees of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh, 2016 (COP22), and a student sample. Results show a mean objective understanding of M = 0.33 for the COP sample, and M = 0.38 for the student sample. Subjective and objective understanding were unrelated for the COP22 sample, but associated for the student sample. These results suggest that (i) understandability of the IPCC health chapter graphs is insufficient, and that (ii) particularly COP22 attendees lacked insight into which graphs they did, and which they did not understand. Implications for the construction of graphs to communicate health impacts of climate change to decision-makers are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid29701771, year = {2018}, author = {Buckley, LB and Cannistra, AF and John, A}, title = {Leveraging Organismal Biology to Forecast the Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {58}, number = {1}, pages = {38-51}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icy018}, pmid = {29701771}, issn = {1557-7023}, abstract = {Despite the pressing need for accurate forecasts of ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental change, commonly used modeling approaches exhibit mixed performance because they omit many important aspects of how organisms respond to spatially and temporally variable environments. Integrating models based on organismal phenotypes at the physiological, performance, and fitness levels can improve model performance. We summarize current limitations of environmental data and models and discuss potential remedies. The paper reviews emerging techniques for sensing environments at fine spatial and temporal scales, accounting for environmental extremes, and capturing how organisms experience the environment. Intertidal mussel data illustrate biologically important aspects of environmental variability. We then discuss key challenges in translating environmental conditions into organismal performance including accounting for the varied timescales of physiological processes, for responses to environmental fluctuations including the onset of stress and other thresholds, and for how environmental sensitivities vary across lifecycles. We call for the creation of phenotypic databases to parameterize forecasting models and advocate for improved sharing of model code and data for model testing. We conclude with challenges in organismal biology that must be solved to improve forecasts over the next decade.}, }
@article {pmid29698101, year = {2018}, author = {Esty, DC and Bell, ML}, title = {Business Leadership in Global Climate Change Responses.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S80-S84}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2018.304336}, pmid = {29698101}, issn = {1541-0048}, abstract = {In the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement, 195 countries committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in recognition of the scientific consensus on the consequences of climate change, including substantial public health burdens. In June 2017, however, US president Donald Trump announced that the United States would not implement the Paris Agreement. We highlight the business community's backing for climate change action in the United States. Just as the US federal government is backing away from its Paris commitments, many corporate executives are recognizing the need to address the greenhouse gas emissions of their companies and the business logic of strong environmental, social, and governance practices more generally. We conclude that climate change could emerge as an issue on which the business and public health communities might align and provide leadership.}, }
@article {pmid29698096, year = {2018}, author = {Samet, JM and Woodward, A}, title = {National Government Denial of Climate Change and State and Local Public Health Action in a Federalist System.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S112-S113}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2018.304395}, pmid = {29698096}, issn = {1541-0048}, }
@article {pmid29698093, year = {2018}, author = {Bell, M and Greenberg, MR}, title = {Climate Change and Human Health: Links Between History, Policy, and Science.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S54-S55}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2018.304437}, pmid = {29698093}, issn = {1541-0048}, }
@article {pmid29698091, year = {2018}, author = {Parker-Flynn, JE}, title = {Linking Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S58-S59}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2017.304294}, pmid = {29698091}, issn = {1541-0048}, }
@article {pmid29698090, year = {2018}, author = {Moulton, AD}, title = {Legal Authority and State Public Health Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S109-S110}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2017.304204}, pmid = {29698090}, issn = {1541-0048}, }
@article {pmid29698088, year = {2018}, author = {Goldstein, BD and Greenberg, MR}, title = {Global Climate Change and the &quot;So What?&quot; Issue: Reversing the Impact of Donald Trump.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S78-S79}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2017.304264}, pmid = {29698088}, issn = {1541-0048}, }
@article {pmid29697173, year = {2018}, author = {Chen, L and Huang, JG and Ma, Q and Hänninen, H and Rossi, S and Piao, S and Bergeron, Y}, title = {Spring phenology at different altitudes is becoming more uniform under global warming in Europe.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14288}, pmid = {29697173}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Under current global warming, high-elevation regions are expected to experience faster warming than low-elevation regions. However, due to the lack of studies based on long-term large-scale data, the relationship between tree spring phenology and the elevation-dependent warming is unclear. Using 652k records of leaf unfolding of five temperate tree species monitored during 1951-2013 in situ in Europe, we discovered a nonlinear trend in the altitudinal sensitivity (SA , shifted days per 100 m in altitude) in spring phenology. A delayed leaf unfolding (2.7 ± 0.6 days per decade) was observed at high elevations possibly due to decreased spring forcing between 1951 and 1980. The delayed leaf unfolding at high-elevation regions was companied by a simultaneous advancing of leaf unfolding at low elevations. These divergent trends contributed to a significant increase in the SA (0.36 ± 0.07 days 100/m per decade) during 1951-1980. Since 1980, the SA started to decline with a rate of -0.32 ± 0.07 days 100/m per decade, possibly due to reduced chilling at low elevations and improved efficiency of spring forcing in advancing the leaf unfolding at high elevations, the latter being caused by increased chilling. Our results suggest that due to both different temperature changes at the different altitudes, and the different tree responses to these changes, the tree phenology has shifted at different rates leading to a more uniform phenology at different altitudes during recent decades.}, }
@article {pmid29695135, year = {2018}, author = {Herrmann, A and Sauerborn, R}, title = {General Practitioners' Perceptions of Heat Health Impacts on the Elderly in the Face of Climate Change-A Qualitative Study in Baden-Württemberg, Germany.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15050843}, pmid = {29695135}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Heat health impacts (HHI) on the elderly are a growing concern in the face of climate change and aging populations. General practitioners (GPs) have an important role in health care for the elderly. To inform the development of effective prevention measures, it is important to investigate GPs&amp;rsquo; perceptions of HHI. Twenty four qualitative expert interviews were conducted with GPs and analyzed using the framework approach. GPs were generally aware of heat health impacts, focusing on cardiovascular morbidity and volume imbalances. Perceptions of mortality and for instance impacts on respiratory diseases or potentially risky drugs in heat waves partly diverged from findings in literature. GPs judged the current relevance of HHI differently depending on their attitudes towards: (i) sensitivity of the elderly, (ii) status of nursing care and (iii) heat exposure in Baden-W&amp;uuml;rttemberg. Future relevance of HHI was perceived to be increasing by most GPs. The main cause identified for this was population aging, while impacts of climate change were judged as uncertain by many. GPs&amp;rsquo; perceptions, partly diverging from literature, show that GPs&amp;rsquo; knowledge and awareness on HHI and climate change needs to be strengthened. However, they also emphasize the need for more research on HHI in the ambulant health care setting. Furthermore, GPs perceptions suggest that strong nursing care and social networks for elderly are major elements of a climate resilient health system.}, }
@article {pmid29694355, year = {2018}, author = {Imbach, P and Chou, SC and Lyra, A and Rodrigues, D and Rodriguez, D and Latinovic, D and Siqueira, G and Silva, A and Garofolo, L and Georgiou, S}, title = {Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e0193570}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0193570}, pmid = {29694355}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Central America ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961-1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021-2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021-2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario.}, }
@article {pmid29692086, year = {2017}, author = {Yu, J and Liu, QJ and Zhou, G and Meng, SW and Zhou, H and Xu, ZZ and Shi, JN and Du, WX}, title = {[Response of radial growth of Pinus koraiensis and Picea jezoensis to climate change in Xiao-xing'anling Mountains, Northeast China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {28}, number = {11}, pages = {3451-3460}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201711.008}, pmid = {29692086}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Picea ; *Pinus ; }, abstract = {Based on dendrochronological methods, we established residual chronologies of Pinus koraiensis and Picea jezoensis, with the dominant species of broadleaved Korean pine mixed forest at low altitudes chosen as the research object, to identify the key climatic factors affecting the radial growth of the two species in Xiaoxing'anling Mountains, Northeast China. The results showed that the responses of the two species to climate factors were different, and P. koraiensis was more sensitive, and hence more suitable for dendroclimatological analysis. Response function coefficients indicated that the radial growth of P. koraiensis negatively correlated with June mean temperature of current year, while positively correlated with precipitation in June of current year. There was no significant correlation between P. jezoensis and all climate variables. Spatial correlation analysis revealed that variations in chronology of P. koraiensis contained strong regional signals, and the highest correlation occurred in the vicinity of the study area. Warming caused drought stress, which was the main factor that limited the growth of P. koraiensis, and it might have adverse effects on the Korean pine if global temperature continues to increase. The coupling effects of large-scale atmospheric-oceanic variability may affect the radial growth of P. koraiensis in Xiaoxing'anling Mountains.}, }
@article {pmid29692054, year = {2018}, author = {Huo, XY and Peng, SZ and Ren, JY and Cao, Y and Chen, YM}, title = {[Dynamic change of Pinus tabuliformis forest productivity and its response to future climate change in Shaanxi Province, China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {412-420}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201802.006}, pmid = {29692054}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Pinus ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {This study analyzed the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabuliformis forest under future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100, using a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). The results showed that in the 2015-2100 period, annual mean temperature of this region would significantly increase by 0.12, 0.23 and 0.54 ℃·10 a-1 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the annual precipitation would have no significant change under climate scenarios except RCP4.5, under which it would significantly increase by 14.36 mm·10 a-1. Compared with the NPP of P. tabuliformis forest in the historical period (1961-1990), it would increase by 1.6%-29.6% in the future period, and the enhancement could reach 45.4% at the end of this century (2071-2100) under RCP8.5 scenario. The NPP under the RCP8.5 scenario was the highest, followed by the RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. During 2015-2100, the NPP in the northern Shaanxi region would significantly decrease with the rate of 41.00 and 21.00 g C·m-2·10 a-1 under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively, implying that this area has the potentiality to be carbon source.}, }
@article {pmid29692022, year = {2018}, author = {Wu, Z and Dong, YB and Xiong, ZQ}, title = {[Effects of biochar application three-years ago on global warming potentials of CH4 and N2O in a rice-wheat rotation system.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {141-148}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201801.028}, pmid = {29692022}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Charcoal ; *Crop Production ; *Global Warming ; Methane ; Nitrous Oxide ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; Soil ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {To evaluate the long-term effects of biochar amendment on greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), a field experiment was conducted to examine the effects of 3-year field-aged biochar (B3) and fresh biochar (B0) on global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in a typical rice-wheat rotation system. Four treatments were established as control without nitrogen fertilizer (CK), urea without biochar (N), urea with fresh biochar amended in 2015 (NB0), and urea with 3-year field-aged biochar amended in 2012 (NB3). Results showed that both the NB0 and NB3 treatments obviously increased soil pH, soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN) and influenced the potential activity of functional microorganisms related to GHGs compared to the N treatment. Relative to the N treatment, the NB3 treatment significantly improved crop yield by 14.1% while reduced the CH4 and N2O emissions by 9.0% and 34.0%, respectively. In addition, the NB0 treatment significantly improved crop yield by 9.3%, while reduced the N2O emission by 38.6% though increased the CH4 emissions by 4.7% relative to the N treatment. Moreover, both the NB0 and NB3 treatments could significantly reduce both GWP and GHGI, with NB3 being more effective in simultaneously mitigating the GHGs emissions and enhancing crop yield. Since field-aged biochar showed obvious effects on GHGs mitigation and carbon sequestration after 3 years, biochar incorporations had long-term effect on GHGs mitigation and crop production in the rice-wheat rotation system.}, }
@article {pmid29692017, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, H and Chen, HH and Tang, LS and Wang, JH and Tang, HY}, title = {[Temporal and spatial change of climate resources and meteorological disasters under climate change during winter crop growing season in Guangdong Province, China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {93-102}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201801.015}, pmid = {29692017}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Crop Production ; *Disasters ; Droughts ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Trend analysis method was applied to analyze the general variation characteristics of the climate resources and meteorological disasters of growing season of the winter planting in Guangdong before (1961-1996) and after climate warming (1997-2015). Percentile method was employed to determine thresholds for extreme cold and drought in major planting regions, and the characteristics of extreme disasters since climate warming were analyzed. The results showed that, by comparing 1997-2015 with 1961-1996, the heat value in winter growing season increased significantly. The belt with a higher heat value, where the average temperature was ≥15 ℃ and accumulated temperature was ≥2200 ℃·d, covered the main winter production regions as Shaoguan, Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Meizhou and Guangzhou. Meanwhile, the precipitation witnessed a slight increase. The regions with precipitations of 250-350 mm included Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Guangzhou and Meizhou. Chilling injury in the winter planting season in the regions decreased, the belt with an accumulated chilling of <2 ℃·d covered the major geographic parts of the involved regions as Zhanjiang, Maoming, Guangzhou and Huizhou; and the belt with an accumulated chilling of 8-16 ℃·d covered the major geographic parts of Shaoguan and Meizhou. Meanwhile, the drought days decreased, the belt with drought days ≥50 included the major geographic parts of Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Guangzhou and the belt with drought days <50 included the major geographic parts of Shaoguan. The typical case of the extreme disasters showed that the extreme chilling injury and drought in the main producing regions should not be overlooked. Maoming, Huizhou and Meizhou were at higher risk of extreme chilling injury, followed by Shaoguan and Guangzhou. Zhanjiang and Maoming faced the highest risk of extreme drought, Huizhou and Guangzhou took the second place, Shaoguan and Meizhou went last. During 1997-2015, the heat of winter season increased significantly, the trend of chilling and drought decreased, however, the extreme disasters occurred frequently and the risks were higher in winter production areas. It was suggested that the winter planting should be closely integrated with climate resources and the occurrence law of meteorological disasters in growing season.}, }
@article {pmid29691942, year = {2018}, author = {Samplonius, JM and Bartošová, L and Burgess, MD and Bushuev, AV and Eeva, T and Ivankina, EV and Kerimov, AB and Krams, I and Laaksonen, T and Mägi, M and Mänd, R and Potti, J and Török, J and Trnka, M and Visser, ME and Zang, H and Both, C}, title = {Phenological sensitivity to climate change is higher in resident than in migrant bird populations among European cavity breeders.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {3780-3790}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14160}, pmid = {29691942}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Many organisms adjust their reproductive phenology in response to climate change, but phenological sensitivity to temperature may vary between species. For example, resident and migratory birds have vastly different annual cycles, which can cause differential temperature sensitivity at the breeding grounds, and may affect competitive dynamics. Currently, however, adjustment to climate change in resident and migratory birds have been studied separately or at relatively small geographical scales with varying time series durations and methodologies. Here, we studied differential effects of temperature on resident and migratory birds using the mean egg laying initiation dates from 10 European nest box schemes between 1991 and 2015 that had data on at least one resident tit species and at least one migratory flycatcher species. We found that both tits and flycatchers advanced laying in response to spring warming, but resident tit populations advanced more strongly in relation to temperature increases than migratory flycatchers. These different temperature responses have already led to a divergence in laying dates between tits and flycatchers of on average 0.94 days per decade over the current study period. Interestingly, this divergence was stronger at lower latitudes where the interval between tit and flycatcher phenology is smaller and winter conditions can be considered more favorable for resident birds. This could indicate that phenological adjustment to climate change by flycatchers is increasingly hampered by competition with resident species. Indeed, we found that tit laying date had an additional effect on flycatcher laying date after controlling for temperature, and this effect was strongest in areas with the shortest interval between both species groups. Combined, our results suggest that the differential effect of climate change on species groups with overlapping breeding ecology affects the phenological interval between them, potentially affecting interspecific interactions.}, }
@article {pmid29691632, year = {2018}, author = {Eikenberry, SE and Gumel, AB}, title = {Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review.}, journal = {Journal of mathematical biology}, volume = {77}, number = {4}, pages = {857-933}, doi = {10.1007/s00285-018-1229-7}, pmid = {29691632}, issn = {1432-1416}, support = {EF-0832858//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the &quot;million-murdering Death&quot; of malaria.}, }
@article {pmid29691504, year = {2018}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Clear signs of global warming will hit poorer countries first.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {556}, number = {7702}, pages = {415-416}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-04854-2}, pmid = {29691504}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Developed Countries/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Developing Countries/*economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Geographic Mapping ; Global Warming/*economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; International Cooperation ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid29687305, year = {2018}, author = {Kirch, DG and Petelle, K}, title = {Addressing the Health Effects of Climate Change: an Approach Based on Evidence and Ethics.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {324-326}, doi = {10.1007/s40596-018-0907-5}, pmid = {29687305}, issn = {1545-7230}, }
@article {pmid29686289, year = {2018}, author = {Montwé, D and Isaac-Renton, M and Hamann, A and Spiecker, H}, title = {Cold adaptation recorded in tree rings highlights risks associated with climate change and assisted migration.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1574}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-04039-5}, pmid = {29686289}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {With lengthening growing seasons but increased temperature variability under climate change, frost damage to plants may remain a risk and could be exacerbated by poleward planting of warm-adapted seed sources. Here, we study cold adaptation of tree populations in a wide-ranging coniferous species in western North America to inform limits to seed transfer. Using tree-ring signatures of cold damage from common garden trials designed to study genetic population differentiation, we find opposing geographic clines for spring frost and fall frost damage. Provenances from northern regions are sensitive to spring frosts, while the more productive provenances from central and southern regions are more susceptible to fall frosts. Transferring the southern, warm-adapted genotypes northward causes a significant loss of growth and a permanent rank change after a spring frost event. We conclude that cold adaptation should remain an important consideration when implementing seed transfers designed to mitigate harmful effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29685733, year = {2018}, author = {Varshney, RK and Singh, VK and Kumar, A and Powell, W and Sorrells, ME}, title = {Can genomics deliver climate-change ready crops?.}, journal = {Current opinion in plant biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2018.03.007}, pmid = {29685733}, issn = {1879-0356}, abstract = {Development of climate resilient crops with accelerating genetic gains in crops will require integration of different disciplines/technologies, to see the impact in the farmer's field. In this review, we summarize how we are utilizing our germplasm collections to identify superior alleles/haplotypes through NGS based sequencing approaches and how genomics-enabled technologies together with precise phenotyping are being used in crop breeding. Pre-breeding and genomics-assisted breeding approaches are contributing to the more efficient development of climate-resilient crops. It is anticipated that the integration of several disciplines/technologies will result in the delivery of climate change ready crops in less time.}, }
@article {pmid29685183, year = {2018}, author = {Supple, MA and Bragg, JG and Broadhurst, LM and Nicotra, AB and Byrne, M and Andrew, RL and Widdup, A and Aitken, NC and Borevitz, JO}, title = {Landscape genomic prediction for restoration of a Eucalyptus foundation species under climate change.}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.7554/eLife.31835}, pmid = {29685183}, issn = {2050-084X}, support = {Linkage Grant LP130100455//Australian Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {As species face rapid environmental change, we can build resilient populations through restoration projects that incorporate predicted future climates into seed sourcing decisions. Eucalyptus melliodora is a foundation species of a critically endangered community in Australia that is a target for restoration. We examined genomic and phenotypic variation to make empirical based recommendations for seed sourcing. We examined isolation by distance and isolation by environment, determining high levels of gene flow extending for 500 km and correlations with climate and soil variables. Growth experiments revealed extensive phenotypic variation both within and among sampling sites, but no site-specific differentiation in phenotypic plasticity. Model predictions suggest that seed can be sourced broadly across the landscape, providing ample diversity for adaptation to environmental change. Application of our landscape genomic model to E. melliodora restoration projects can identify genomic variation suitable for predicted future climates, thereby increasing the long term probability of successful restoration.}, }
@article {pmid29684896, year = {2018}, author = {Campbell, P and Zhang, Y and Yan, F and Lu, Z and Streets, D}, title = {Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part II: Air quality projections and the interplay between emissions and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {238}, number = {}, pages = {918-930}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2018.03.016}, pmid = {29684896}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/analysis/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Dioxide ; Carbon Monoxide ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen Oxides/analysis ; Ozone/analysis ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Sulfur Dioxide ; Transportation ; United States ; Vehicle Emissions/*analysis ; Volatile Organic Compounds/analysis ; Weather ; }, abstract = {In Part II of this work we present the results of the downscaled offline Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ) model, included in the &quot;Technology Driver Model&quot; (TDM) approach to future U.S. air quality projections (2046-2050) compared to a current-year period (2001-2005), and the interplay between future emission and climate changes. By 2046-2050, there are widespread decreases in future concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) due mainly to decreasing on-road vehicle (ORV) emissions near urban centers as well as decreases in other transportation modes that include non-road engines (NRE). However, there are widespread increases in daily maximum 8-hr ozone (O3) across the U.S., which are due to enhanced greenhouse gases (GHG) including methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario, and isolated areas of larger reduction in transportation emissions of NOx compared to that of VOCs over regions with VOC-limited O3 chemistry. Other notable future changes are reduced haze and improved visibility, increased primary organic to elemental carbon ratio, decreases in PM2.5 and its species, decreases and increases in dry deposition of SO2 and O3, respectively, and decreases in total nitrogen (TN) deposition. There is a tendency for transportation emission and CH4 changes to dominate the increases in O3, while climate change may either enhance or mitigate these increases in the west or east U.S., respectively. Climate change also decreases PM2.5 in the future. Other variable changes exhibit stronger susceptibility to either emission (e.g., CO, NOx, and TN deposition) or climate changes (e.g., VOC, NH3, SO2, and total sulfate deposition), which also have a strong dependence on season and specific U.S. regions.}, }
@article {pmid29684649, year = {2018}, author = {Tong, MX and Hansen, A and Hanson-Easey, S and Xiang, J and Cameron, S and Liu, Q and Liu, X and Sun, Y and Weinstein, P and Han, GS and Bi, P}, title = {China's capacity of hospitals to deal with infectious diseases in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {206}, number = {}, pages = {60-66}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2018.04.021}, pmid = {29684649}, issn = {1873-5347}, mesh = {Adult ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; Capacity Building ; China ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*therapy ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Health Care Surveys ; *Hospital Administration ; Humans ; Male ; Personnel, Hospital/*psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Infectious diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in China. The capacity of hospitals to deal with the challenge from emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change is of great importance to population health. This study aimed to explore the capacity of hospitals in China to deal with such challenges.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was utilized to gauge information regarding capacity of hospitals to deal with infectious diseases in the context of climate change among 611 clinical professionals whose roles pertained to infectious disease diagnosis, treatment and management in Anhui Province of China. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression analysis were performed on the data.<br><br>RESULTS: More than 90% of participants believed climate change would have an adverse influence on population health and infectious disease control in China. Most indicated that their hospitals were well prepared for emerging infectious diseases at present, and they considered that logistical support in hospitals (e.g. administrative and maintenance services) should be strengthened for future capacity building. The majority of participants suggested that effective prevention and control measures, more interdisciplinary collaborations, more funding in rural areas for health care, and improved access to facilities enabling online reporting of infectious diseases, were extremely important strategies in building capacity to curb the population health impact of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change in China.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Clinical professionals recognized that climate change will likely increase the transmission of infectious diseases. Although rural health care and hospitals' logistical support need to be improved, most professionals believed their hospitals to be capable of dealing with emerging diseases. They thought that interdisciplinary and cross-regional collaborations, together with necessary resource support (e.g. improved facilities for rural health care) would be important control strategies.}, }
@article {pmid29684041, year = {2018}, author = {Peterson St-Laurent, G and Hagerman, S and Kozak, R and Hoberg, G}, title = {Public perceptions about climate change mitigation in British Columbia's forest sector.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e0195999}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0195999}, pmid = {29684041}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {British Columbia ; Carbon/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Forests ; Internet ; *Perception ; Public Opinion ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {The role of forest management in mitigating climate change is a central concern for the Canadian province of British Columbia. The successful implementation of forest management activities to achieve climate change mitigation in British Columbia will be strongly influenced by public support or opposition. While we now have increasingly clear ideas of the management opportunities associated with forest mitigation and some insight into public support for climate change mitigation in the context of sustainable forest management, very little is known with respect to the levels and basis of public support for potential forest management strategies to mitigate climate change. This paper, by describing the results of a web-based survey, documents levels of public support for the implementation of eight forest carbon mitigation strategies in British Columbia's forest sector, and examines and quantifies the influence of the factors that shape this support. Overall, respondents ascribed a high level of importance to forest carbon mitigation and supported all of the eight proposed strategies, indicating that the British Columbia public is inclined to consider alternative practices in managing forests and wood products to mitigate climate change. That said, we found differences in levels of support for the mitigation strategies. In general, we found greater levels of support for a rehabilitation strategy (e.g. reforestation of unproductive forest land), and to a lesser extent for conservation strategies (e.g. old growth conservation, reduced harvest) over enhanced forest management strategies (e.g. improved harvesting and silvicultural techniques). We also highlighted multiple variables within the British Columbia population that appear to play a role in predicting levels of support for conservation and/or enhanced forest management strategies, including environmental values, risk perception, trust in groups of actors, prioritized objectives of forest management and socio-demographic factors.}, }
@article {pmid29683551, year = {2018}, author = {Xie, YF and Yang, L and Deng, RY and Chen, MH and Luan, XF and Gottardi, E and Zhang, ZX}, title = {Changes in the range of the medicinal herb Eriocaulon buergerianum Körnicke. (Eriocaulaceae) under climate change.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {771-779}, doi = {10.1111/plb.12836}, pmid = {29683551}, issn = {1438-8677}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Eriocaulaceae/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Plants, Medicinal/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Eriocaulon buergerianum Körnicke. (Eriocaulaceae) is one of the most common and least expensive herbal medicines for eye disease. This species is facing potential threats from climate change. Insufficient biogeographic knowledge of this plant species can hinder its effective management for long-term population survival. We integrated ecological niche modelling (Biomod2) with 70 records of E. buergerianum and eight environmental variables to estimate changes in distribution over time. A core area Zonation algorithm was introduced to identify conservation priority areas. Our results indicate that the range of E. buergerianum will likely decrease in the future: the overall range change on average is -44.36 ± 21.56% (-3.70% to -77.73%); values of range loss and range gain are 45.79 ± 20.30% (9.29-78.19%) and 1.43 ± 1.53% (0.18-5.59%), respectively. According to conservation priority analysis, the mandatory reserve (top 5%), negotiable reserve (0.95-0.9) and partial reserve (0.9-0.8) areas are 19,799, 19,799 and 39,597 km2 , respectively. The areas identified as conservation priority are located in the southeast, especially in northern Taiwan and the Wuyi Mountains. Based on these results, we suggest a re-evaluation of the threatened status of this species, with a potential upgrade to the vulnerable (VU) category. To overcome the adverse conditions faced by populations of E. buergerianum in China, we propose a multi-faceted conservation strategy involving more complete resource assessment, a monitoring system, medical research focused on revealing medicinal components or substitutes, and a regional development plan that considers both wildlife and socio-economic issues.}, }
@article {pmid29681687, year = {2018}, author = {Trisurat, Y and Aekakkararungroj, A and Ma, HO and Johnston, JM}, title = {Basin-wide Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in the Lower Mekong Basin.}, journal = {Ecological research}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {73-86}, doi = {10.1007/s11284-017-1510-z}, pmid = {29681687}, issn = {0912-3814}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/ ; }, abstract = {Water resources support more than 60 million people in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) and are important for food security-especially rice production-and economic security. This study aims to quantify water yield under near- and long-term climate scenarios and assess the potential impacts on rice cultivation. The InVEST model (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) forecasted water yield, and land evaluation was used to delineate suitability classes. Pattern-downscaled climate data were specially generated for the LMB. Predicted annual water yields for 2030 and 2060, derived from a drier overall scenario in combination with medium and high greenhouse gas emissions, indicated a reduction of 9-24% from baseline (average 1986-2005) runoff. In contrast, increased seasonality and wetter rainfall scenarios increased annual runoff by 6-26%. Extreme drought decreased suitability of transplanted rice cultivation by 3%, and rice production would be reduced by 4.2 and 4%, with and without irrigation projects, relative to baseline. Greatest rice reduction was predicted for Thailand, followed by Lao PDR and Cambodia, and was stable for Vietnam. Rice production in the LMB appears sufficient to feed the LMB population in 2030, while rice production in Lao PDR and Cambodia are not expected to be sufficient for domestic consumption, largely due to steep topography and sandy soils as well as drought. Four adaptation measures to minimize climate impacts (i.e., irrigation, changing the planting calendar, new rice varieties, and alternative crops) are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid29681548, year = {2018}, author = {Lerner, BH}, title = {Climate Change?: The Environment, Physicians, and Historians.}, journal = {Bulletin of the history of medicine}, volume = {92}, number = {1}, pages = {46-49}, doi = {10.1353/bhm.2018.0001}, pmid = {29681548}, issn = {1086-3176}, }
@article {pmid29680763, year = {2018}, author = {Sishodia, RP and Shukla, S and Wani, SP and Graham, WD and Jones, JW}, title = {Future irrigation expansion outweigh groundwater recharge gains from climate change in semi-arid India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {635}, number = {}, pages = {725-740}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.130}, pmid = {29680763}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Simultaneous effects of future climate and irrigation intensification on surface and groundwater systems are not well understood. Efforts are needed to understand the future groundwater availability and associated surface flows under business-as-usual management to formulate policy changes to improve water sustainability. We combine measurements with integrated modeling (MIKE SHE/MIKE11) to evaluate the effects of future climate (2040-2069), with and without irrigation expansion, on water levels and flows in an agricultural watershed in low-storage crystalline aquifer region of south India. Demand and supply management changes, including improved efficiency of irrigation water as well as energy uses, were evaluated. Increased future rainfall (7-43%, from 5 Global Climate Models) with no further expansion of irrigation wells increased the groundwater recharge (10-55%); however, most of the recharge moved out of watershed as increased baseflow (17-154%) with a small increase in net recharge (+0.2mm/year). When increased rainfall was considered with projected increase in irrigation withdrawals, both hydrologic extremes of well drying and flooding were predicted. A 100-year flow event was predicted to be a 5-year event in the future. If irrigation expansion follows the historical trends, earlier and more frequent well drying, a source of farmers' distress in India, was predicted to worsen in the future despite the recharge gains from increased rainfall. Storage and use of excess flows, improved irrigation efficiency with flood to drip conversion in 25% of irrigated area, and reduced energy subsidy (free electricity for 3.5h compared to 7h/day; $1 billion savings) provided sufficient water savings to support future expansion in irrigated areas while mitigating well drying as well as flooding. Reductions in energy subsidy to fund the implementation of economically desirable (high benefit-cost ratio) demand (drip irrigation) and supply (water capture and storage) management was recommended to achieve a sustainable food-water-energy nexus in semi-arid regions.}, }
@article {pmid29680392, year = {2018}, author = {Heffernan, C}, title = {Climate change and multiple emerging infectious diseases.}, journal = {Veterinary journal (London, England : 1997)}, volume = {234}, number = {}, pages = {43-47}, doi = {10.1016/j.tvjl.2017.12.021}, pmid = {29680392}, issn = {1532-2971}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/*veterinary ; Disease Outbreaks/*veterinary ; }, }
@article {pmid29677994, year = {2018}, author = {Barteit, S and Sié, A and Yé, M and Depoux, A and Sauerborn, R}, title = {Climate Change and Health as Massive Open Online Courses.}, journal = {Studies in health technology and informatics}, volume = {247}, number = {}, pages = {416-420}, pmid = {29677994}, issn = {0926-9630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Education, Distance ; Humans ; *Internet ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {To teach the basics of climate change and health - such as the nature of health impacts, best practices in adoption strategies and promotion in health co-benefits, mitigation and adaptation strategies - we have developed three massive open online courses (MOOCs). We analysed the three MOOCs with regards to different factors such as course content, student motivation, instructor behaviour, co-learner effects, design and implementation effects. We conducted online surveys for all three MOOCs based on the research model of Hone et al., extended with regards to student's motivation and course outcomes. In total, we evaluated 6898 students, of which 101 students took part in the online survey. We found differences in completion rates and country of origin for the three MOOCs. The francophone MOOC was found to have a high number of participants from lower-income- and low-and-middle-income countries. The majority of participants were aged between 22 and 40 years of age and had mainly a graduate educational background. The primary motivation to join the MOOC was the knowledge and skills gained as a result of taking the course. The three MOOCs on climate change and health had a reach of almost 7000 students worldwide, as compared to the scope of a face-to-face course on the same topic of 30 students, including students from resource-low environments that are already vulnerable to current changes in climate. The evaluation of the MOOCs outlined the current impact. However, further research has to be conducted to be able to get insights into the impact over time.}, }
@article {pmid29677670, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, Z and Chang, J and Xu, CY and Zhou, Y and Wu, Y and Chen, X and Jiang, S and Duan, Z}, title = {The response of lake area and vegetation cover variations to climate change over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during the past 30years.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {635}, number = {}, pages = {443-451}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.113}, pmid = {29677670}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Lakes and vegetation are important factors of the Earth's hydrological cycle and can be called an &quot;indicator&quot; of climate change. In this study, long-term changes of lakes' area and vegetation coverage in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and their relations to the climate change were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall method during the past 30years. Results showed that: 1) the lakes' area of the QTP increased significantly during the past 30years as a whole, and the increasing rates have been dramatically sped up since the year of 2000. Among them, the area of Ayakekumu Lake has the fastest growing rate of 51.35%, which increased from 618km2 in the 1980s to 983km2 in the 2010s; 2) overall, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) increased in the QTP during the past 30years. Above 79% of the area in the QTP showed increasing trend of NDVI before the year of 2000; 3) the air temperature increased significantly, the precipitation increased slightly, and the pan evaporation decreased significantly during the past 30years. The lake area and vegetation coverage changes might be related to the climate change. The shifts in the temporal climate trend occurred around the year 2000 had led the lake area and vegetation coverage increasing. This study is of importance in further understanding the environmental changes under global warming over the QTP.}, }
@article {pmid29677488, year = {2018}, author = {Gottesman, S}, title = {Chilled in Translation: Adapting to Bacterial Climate Change.}, journal = {Molecular cell}, volume = {70}, number = {2}, pages = {193-194}, doi = {10.1016/j.molcel.2018.04.003}, pmid = {29677488}, issn = {1097-4164}, abstract = {Cold-shocked bacteria transiently shut down protein translation, but the mechanisms whereby they adaptively restore translation were incompletely understood. Zhang et al. (2018) demonstrate a global increase in mRNA structure after cold shock and that, as structured RNA decreases, translation returns, dependent upon ribonuclease RNase R and cold shock protein CspA and its homologs.}, }
@article {pmid29677024, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {How Can Climate Change Impact the Health of Workers? Part 1: Increased Ambient Temperature.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {60}, number = {6}, pages = {e288-e289}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000001342}, pmid = {29677024}, issn = {1536-5948}, }
@article {pmid29677022, year = {2018}, author = {Green-McKenzie, J and Pensa, MA}, title = {A Series of JOEM Forum Articles Discussing the Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Workplace and Worker Health.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {60}, number = {6}, pages = {e287}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000001349}, pmid = {29677022}, issn = {1536-5948}, }
@article {pmid29676643, year = {2018}, author = {Balmes, JR}, title = {Climate Change and Implications for Prevention. California's Efforts to Provide Leadership.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {15}, number = {Supplement_2}, pages = {S114-S117}, doi = {10.1513/AnnalsATS.201706-476MG}, pmid = {29676643}, issn = {2325-6621}, abstract = {The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) and the temperature of the earth's surface have been rising in parallel for decades, with the former recently reaching 400 parts per million, consistent with a 1.5°C increase in global warming. Climate change models predict that a &quot;business as usual&quot; approach, that is, no effort to control CO2 emissions from combustion of fossil fuels, will result in a more than 2°C increase in annual average surface temperature by approximately 2034. With atmospheric warming comes increased air pollution. The concept of a &quot;climate gap&quot; in air quality control captures the decreased effectiveness of regulatory policies to reduce pollution with a hotter climate. Sources of greenhouse gases and climate-forcing aerosols (&quot;black carbon&quot;) are the same sources of air pollutants that harm health. California has adopted robust climate change mitigation policies that are also designed to achieve public health cobenefits by improving air quality. These policies include advanced clean car standards, renewable energy, a sustainable communities strategy to limit suburban sprawl, a low carbon fuel standard, and energy efficiency. A market-based mechanism to put a price on CO2 emissions is the cap-and-trade program that allows capped facilities to trade state-issued greenhouse gas emissions allowances. The &quot;cap&quot; limits total greenhouse gas emissions from all covered sources, and declines over time to progressively reduce emissions. An alternative approach is a carbon tax. California's leadership on air quality and climate change mitigation is increasingly important, given the efforts to slow or even reverse implementation of such policies at the U.S. national level.}, }
@article {pmid29673035, year = {2018}, author = {Black, DA and O'Loughlin, K and Wilson, LA}, title = {Climate change and the health of older people in Australia: A scoping review on the role of mobile applications (apps) in ameliorating impact.}, journal = {Australasian journal on ageing}, volume = {37}, number = {2}, pages = {99-106}, doi = {10.1111/ajag.12522}, pmid = {29673035}, issn = {1741-6612}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Exercise ; Female ; Health Status ; *Healthy Aging ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Mobile Applications ; Quality of Life ; *Smartphone ; Telemedicine/*instrumentation ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Due to the impact of climate change, mobile applications (apps) providing information about the external environment have the potential to improve the health of older people. The purpose of this research was to undertake a scoping review of the evidence on the usability, feasibility and effectiveness of mobile apps to encourage access to activities outside the home in older people.<br><br>METHODS: A search of databases was undertaken with relevant keywords. Selected manuscripts were judged for relevance to the inclusion criteria and assessed for quality.<br><br>RESULTS: Very few published studies examined mobile apps specifically designed to prevent, or to treat, chronic disease in ageing populations, and fewer had rigorous designs. No study addressed accessing the external environment in the context of climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that there is a gap in the evidence about the mobile apps designed for healthy ageing and, more specifically, to improve access to the external environment.}, }
@article {pmid29670282, year = {2018}, author = {Hughes, TP and Kerry, JT and Baird, AH and Connolly, SR and Dietzel, A and Eakin, CM and Heron, SF and Hoey, AS and Hoogenboom, MO and Liu, G and McWilliam, MJ and Pears, RJ and Pratchett, MS and Skirving, WJ and Stella, JS and Torda, G}, title = {Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {556}, number = {7702}, pages = {492-496}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0041-2}, pmid = {29670282}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/classification/*growth &amp; development ; Australia ; *Coral Reefs ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Global warming is rapidly emerging as a universal threat to ecological integrity and function, highlighting the urgent need for a better understanding of the impact of heat exposure on the resilience of ecosystems and the people who depend on them 1 . Here we show that in the aftermath of the record-breaking marine heatwave on the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 2 , corals began to die immediately on reefs where the accumulated heat exposure exceeded a critical threshold of degree heating weeks, which was 3-4 °C-weeks. After eight months, an exposure of 6 °C-weeks or more drove an unprecedented, regional-scale shift in the composition of coral assemblages, reflecting markedly divergent responses to heat stress by different taxa. Fast-growing staghorn and tabular corals suffered a catastrophic die-off, transforming the three-dimensionality and ecological functioning of 29% of the 3,863 reefs comprising the world's largest coral reef system. Our study bridges the gap between the theory and practice of assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, under the emerging framework for the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Ecosystems 3 , by rigorously defining both the initial and collapsed states, identifying the major driver of change, and establishing quantitative collapse thresholds. The increasing prevalence of post-bleaching mass mortality of corals represents a radical shift in the disturbance regimes of tropical reefs, both adding to and far exceeding the influence of recurrent cyclones and other local pulse events, presenting a fundamental challenge to the long-term future of these iconic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid29670149, year = {2018}, author = {Haworth, M and Belcher, CM and Killi, D and Dewhirst, RA and Materassi, A and Raschi, A and Centritto, M}, title = {Impaired photosynthesis and increased leaf construction costs may induce floral stress during episodes of global warming over macroevolutionary timescales.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {6206}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-24459-z}, pmid = {29670149}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Global warming events have coincided with turnover of plant species at intervals in Earth history. As mean global temperatures rise, the number, frequency and duration of heat-waves will increase. Ginkgo biloba was grown under controlled climatic conditions at two different day/night temperature regimes (25/20 °C and 35/30 °C) to investigate the impact of heat stress. Photosynthetic CO2-uptake and electron transport were reduced at the higher temperature, while rates of respiration were greater; suggesting that the carbon balance of the leaves was adversely affected. Stomatal conductance and the potential for evaporative cooling of the leaves was reduced at the higher temperature. Furthermore, the capacity of the leaves to dissipate excess energy was also reduced at 35/30 °C, indicating that photo-protective mechanisms were no longer functioning effectively. Leaf economics were adversely affected by heat stress, exhibiting an increase in leaf mass per area and leaf construction costs. This may be consistent with the selective pressures experienced by fossil Ginkgoales during intervals of global warming such as the Triassic - Jurassic boundary or Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. The physiological and morphological responses of the G. biloba leaves were closely interrelated; these relationships may be used to infer the leaf economics and photosynthetic/stress physiology of fossil plants.}, }
@article {pmid29670057, year = {2018}, author = {Banwell, N and Rutherford, S and Mackey, B and Chu, C}, title = {Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15040793}, pmid = {29670057}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links.}, }
@article {pmid29666660, year = {2018}, author = {Sulistyawati, S and Mulasari, SA and Sukesi, TW}, title = {Assessment of Knowledge regarding Climate Change and Health among Adolescents in Yogyakarta, Indonesia.}, journal = {Journal of environmental and public health}, volume = {2018}, number = {}, pages = {9716831}, doi = {10.1155/2018/9716831}, pmid = {29666660}, issn = {1687-9813}, abstract = {This research was aimed at providing evidence on climate change and health knowledge among adolescents. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Yogyakarta city from June to September 2016. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data among 508 adolescents who were in the second grade of a senior high school. This study revealed that participants had a low and inconsistent understanding regarding climate change and its impact on health. They reported that they prefer to get climate change information via talking with family. In summary, adolescent knowledge regarding climate change and health needs to improve with proper content and appropriate media.}, }
@article {pmid29666319, year = {2018}, author = {Liu, H and Mi, Z and Lin, L and Wang, Y and Zhang, Z and Zhang, F and Wang, H and Liu, L and Zhu, B and Cao, G and Zhao, X and Sanders, NJ and Classen, AT and Reich, PB and He, JS}, title = {Shifting plant species composition in response to climate change stabilizes grassland primary production.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {16}, pages = {4051-4056}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1700299114}, pmid = {29666319}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Carbon Sequestration ; China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Grassland ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Humidity ; Longitudinal Studies ; Observational Studies as Topic ; *Plant Dispersal ; Plant Roots/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Poaceae/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Tibet ; *Tundra ; }, abstract = {The structure and function of alpine grassland ecosystems, including their extensive soil carbon stocks, are largely shaped by temperature. The Tibetan Plateau in particular has experienced significant warming over the past 50 y, and this warming trend is projected to intensify in the future. Such climate change will likely alter plant species composition and net primary production (NPP). Here we combined 32 y of observations and monitoring with a manipulative experiment of temperature and precipitation to explore the effects of changing climate on plant community structure and ecosystem function. First, long-term climate warming from 1983 to 2014, which occurred without systematic changes in precipitation, led to higher grass abundance and lower sedge abundance, but did not affect aboveground NPP. Second, an experimental warming experiment conducted over 4 y had no effects on any aspect of NPP, whereas drought manipulation (reducing precipitation by 50%), shifted NPP allocation belowground without affecting total NPP. Third, both experimental warming and drought treatments, supported by a meta-analysis at nine sites across the plateau, increased grass abundance at the expense of biomass of sedges and forbs. This shift in functional group composition led to deeper root systems, which may have enabled plant communities to acquire more water and thus stabilize ecosystem primary production even with a changing climate. Overall, our study demonstrates that shifting plant species composition in response to climate change may have stabilized primary production in this high-elevation ecosystem, but it also caused a shift from aboveground to belowground productivity.}, }
@article {pmid29666313, year = {2018}, author = {Fang, J and Yu, G and Liu, L and Hu, S and Chapin, FS}, title = {Climate change, human impacts, and carbon sequestration in China.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {16}, pages = {4015-4020}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1700304115}, pmid = {29666313}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics/methods ; Agrochemicals/toxicity ; Carbon/analysis ; *Carbon Sequestration ; China ; *Climate Change/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollution/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Plant Dispersal ; }, }
@article {pmid29665567, year = {2018}, author = {Kabir, SMS}, title = {Psychological health challenges of the hill-tracts region for climate change in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Asian journal of psychiatry}, volume = {34}, number = {}, pages = {74-77}, doi = {10.1016/j.ajp.2018.04.001}, pmid = {29665567}, issn = {1876-2026}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Bangladesh ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Mental Disorders/*etiology ; Middle Aged ; Qualitative Research ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the deleterious effects of climate change on psychological health of the Hill-Tracts and government to deal with these adverse psychological health impacts. Although knowledge is still limited about the connections between climate change and psychological health, the evidence is indicating that impacts can be felt at both the individual and community levels, with psychological health outcomes ranging from psychological distress, depression, and anxiety, to increased addictions and suicide rates. Drawing from 125 in-depth interviews conducted between January 2015 and October 2016 with community members and local and regional health professionals, participants reported that climate change was negatively impacting psychological health and well-being. The results stated that climate change enhanced the possibility of an increased drug, family stress, alcohol use, amplified previous traumas, psychological health stressors, and were implicated in increased potential for suicide ideation of the Hill-Tracts region in Bangladesh. These exploratory findings indicate that climate change is becoming an additional psychological health stressor for Hill-Tracks' dwellers in Bangladesh.}, }
@article {pmid29664961, year = {2018}, author = {Thapa, S and Chitale, V and Rijal, SJ and Bisht, N and Shrestha, BB}, title = {Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e0195752}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0195752}, pmid = {29664961}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Introduced Species ; *Plants ; Satellite Imagery ; }, abstract = {Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively.}, }
@article {pmid29664475, year = {2018}, author = {Harvey, JA and van den Berg, D and Ellers, J and Kampen, R and Crowther, TW and Roessingh, P and Verheggen, B and Nuijten, RJM and Post, E and Lewandowsky, S and Stirling, I and Balgopal, M and Amstrup, SC and Mann, ME}, title = {Corrigendum: Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy.}, journal = {Bioscience}, volume = {68}, number = {4}, pages = {237}, doi = {10.1093/biosci/biy033}, pmid = {29664475}, issn = {0006-3568}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/biosci/bix133.].}, }
@article {pmid29662248, year = {2018}, author = {Harvey, JA and van den Berg, D and Ellers, J and Kampen, R and Crowther, TW and Roessingh, P and Verheggen, B and Nuijten, RJM and Post, E and Lewandowsky, S and Stirling, I and Balgopal, M and Amstrup, SC and Mann, ME}, title = {Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy.}, journal = {Bioscience}, volume = {68}, number = {4}, pages = {281-287}, doi = {10.1093/biosci/bix133}, pmid = {29662248}, issn = {0006-3568}, abstract = {Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every major scientific organization in the world. However, there is a wide gap between this broad scientific consensus and public opinion. Internet blogs have strongly contributed to this consensus gap by fomenting misunderstandings of AGW causes and consequences. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a &quot;poster species&quot; for AGW, making them a target of those denying AGW evidence. Here, focusing on Arctic sea ice and polar bears, we show that blogs that deny or downplay AGW disregard the overwhelming scientific evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss and polar bear vulnerability. By denying the impacts of AGW on polar bears, bloggers aim to cast doubt on other established ecological consequences of AGW, aggravating the consensus gap. To counter misinformation and reduce this gap, scientists should directly engage the public in the media and blogosphere.}, }
@article {pmid29662073, year = {2018}, author = {Zhao, J and Zhan, R and Wang, Y}, title = {Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {6023}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-24402-2}, pmid = {29662073}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.}, }
@article {pmid29660728, year = {2018}, author = {Kılıç, E and Puig, R and Zengin, G and Zengin, CA and Fullana-I-Palmer, P}, title = {Corporate carbon footprint for country Climate Change mitigation: A case study of a tannery in Turkey.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {635}, number = {}, pages = {60-69}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.111}, pmid = {29660728}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; Industrial Waste/*analysis ; Solid Waste/*analysis ; *Tanning ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {Assessment of carbon emissions and environmental impact of production is indispensable to achieve a sustainable industrial production in Turkey, especially for those companies willing to compete in new international green markets. In this case study, corporate carbon footprint of a representative Turkish tanning company was analyzed. Inventory and impact data are presented to help in the environmental decision-making process. The results indicate that significant environmental impacts were caused during the landfilling of solid wastes as well as the production of the electricity and fuel required in the tannery. Turkish tannery inventory data presented here for the first time will be useful for leather tanning company managers to calculate sustainability key indicators. Improving alternatives at country level were identified (increasing the renewable sources on electricity production and promote energy recovery in landfills) which would be useful not only to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of tanning sector but also of other industries requiring electricity and producing organic wastes. Considering the substantial contribution of industrial processes to the Turkish carbon emissions (15.7%) (TUIK, 2013), work done on those areas would provide a sound improvement in environmental profile of Turkey. The importance to promote a national strategy to reduce GHG emissions in Turkey was discussed here, as well as its relation to corporate carbon footprint assessments. One of the significant points revealed from the case study is the lack of published country specific emission factors for Turkey, which is a fundamental prerequisite to promote corporate carbon footprint assessment within the country.}, }
@article {pmid29660717, year = {2018}, author = {Wagena, MB and Easton, ZM}, title = {Agricultural conservation practices can help mitigate the impact of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {635}, number = {}, pages = {132-143}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.110}, pmid = {29660717}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Agricultural conservation practices (CPs) are commonly implemented to reduce diffuse nutrient pollution. Climate change can complicate the development, implementation, and efficiency of agricultural CPs by altering hydrology, nutrient cycling, and erosion. This research quantifies the impact of climate change on hydrology, nutrient cycling, erosion, and the effectiveness of agricultural CP in the Susquehanna River Basin in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA. We develop, calibrate, and test the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area (SWAT-VSA) model and select four CPs; buffer strips, strip-cropping, no-till, and tile drainage, to test their effectiveness in reducing climate change impacts on water quality. We force the model with six downscaled global climate models (GCMs) for a historic period (1990-2014) and two future scenario periods (2041-2065 and 2075-2099) and quantify the impact of climate change on hydrology, nitrate-N (NO3-N), total N (TN), dissolved phosphorus (DP), total phosphorus (TP), and sediment export with and without CPs. We also test prioritizing CP installation on the 30% of agricultural lands that generate the most runoff (e.g., critical source areas-CSAs). Compared against the historical baseline and with no CPs, the ensemble model predictions indicate that climate change results in annual increases in flow (4.5±7.3%), surface runoff (3.5±6.1%), sediment export (28.5±18.2%) and TN export (9.5±5.1%), but decreases in NO3-N (12±12.8%), DP (14±11.5), and TP (2.5±7.4%) export. When agricultural CPs are simulated most do not appreciably change the water balance, however, tile drainage and strip-cropping decrease surface runoff, sediment export, and DP/TP, while buffer strips reduce N export. Installing CPs on CSAs results in nearly the same level of performance for most practices and most pollutants. These results suggest that climate change will influence the performance of agricultural CPs and that targeting agricultural CPs to CSAs can provide nearly the same level of water quality effects as more widespread adoption.}, }
@article {pmid29660713, year = {2018}, author = {Dubey, SK and Sharma, D}, title = {Assessment of climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin, India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {635}, number = {}, pages = {10-19}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.343}, pmid = {29660713}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Crop growth models like AquaCrop are useful in understanding the impact of climate change on crop production considering the various projections from global circulation models and regional climate models. The present study aims to assess the climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin i.e., wheat, barley and maize. Banas basin is part of the semi-arid region of Rajasthan state in India. AquaCrop model is used to calculate the yield of all the three crops for a historical period of 30years (1981-2010) and then compared with observed yield data. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values are calculated to assess the model accuracy in prediction of yield. Further, the calibrated model is used to predict the possible impacts of climate change and CO2 concentration on crop yield using CORDEX-SA climate projections of three driving climate models (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR) for two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the future period 2021-2050. RMSE values of simulated yield with respect to observed yield of wheat, barley and maize are 11.99, 16.15 and 19.13, respectively. It is predicted that crop yield of all three crops will increase under the climate change conditions for future period (2021-2050).}, }
@article {pmid29660613, year = {2018}, author = {Chen, X and Li, X and Yuan, X and Zeng, G and Liang, J and Li, X and Xu, W and Luo, Y and Chen, G}, title = {Effects of human activities and climate change on the reduction of visibility in Beijing over the past 36 years.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {116}, number = {}, pages = {92-100}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2018.04.009}, pmid = {29660613}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {Both climate change and intensive human activities are thought to have contributed to the impairment of atmospheric visibility in Beijing. But the detailed processes involved and relative roles of human activities and climate change have not been quantified. Optical extinction of aerosols, the inverse of meteorological visibility is especially sensitive to fine particles <1.0 μm. These submicron particles are considered more hazardous than larger ones in terms of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Here we used the aerosol optical extinction (inverse of visibility) as the indicator of submicron particles pollution to estimate its inter-annual variability from 1980 to 2015. Our results indicated that optical extinction experienced two different periods: a weakly increasing stage (1980-2005) and a rapidly increasing stage (2005-2015). We attributed the variations of optical extinction to the joint effects of human activities and climate change. Over the past 36 years, human activities played a leading role in the increase of optical extinction, with a positive contribution of 0.077 km-1/10 y. While under the effects of climate change, optical extinction firstly decreased by 0.035 km-1/10 y until 2005 and then increased by 0.087 km-1/10 y. Detailed analysis revealed that the abrupt change (around 2005) of optical extinction resulted from the trend reversals of climate change. We found since 2005 the decreasing trend by 0.58 m·s-1/10 y in wind speed, the growing trend at 8.69%/10 y in relative humidity and the declining trend by 2.72 hPa/10 y in atmospheric pressure have caused the rapid increase of optical extinction. In brief, the higher load of fine particles <1.0 μm in Beijing in recent decades could be associated with both human activities and climate change. Particularly after 2005, the adverse climate change aggravated the situation of submicron particles pollution.}, }
@article {pmid29659603, year = {2018}, author = {Lyam, PT and Duque-Lazo, J and Durka, W and Hauenschild, F and Schnitzler, J and Michalak, I and Ogundipe, OT and Muellner-Riehl, AN}, title = {Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e0194726}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0194726}, pmid = {29659603}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Africa, Western ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fabaceae/*genetics ; *Genetic Variation ; Genotype ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Plastids/genetics ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to impact species' genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species' ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species' adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29656612, year = {2018}, author = {Mogollón, R and R Calil, PH}, title = {Counterintuitive effects of global warming-induced wind patterns on primary production in the Northern Humboldt Current System.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {7}, pages = {3187-3198}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14171}, pmid = {29656612}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {It has been hypothesized that global warming will strengthen upwelling-favorable winds in the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS) as a consequence of the increase of the land-sea thermal gradient along the Peruvian coast. The effect of strengthened winds in this region is assessed with the use of a coupled physical-biogeochemical model forced with projected and climatological winds. Strengthened winds induce an increase in primary production of 2% per latitudinal degree from 9.5°S to 5°S. In some important coastal upwelling sites primary production is reduced. This is due to a complex balance between nutrient availability, nutrient use efficiency, as well as eddy- and wind-driven factors. Mesoscale activity induces a net offshore transport of inorganic nutrients, thus reducing primary production in the coastal upwelling region. Wind mixing, in general disadvantageous for primary producers, leads to shorter residence times in the southern and central coastal zones. Overall, instead of a proportional enhancement in primary production due to increased winds, the NHCS becomes only 5% more productive (+5 mol C m-2 year-1), 10% less limited by nutrients and 15% less efficient due to eddy-driven effects. It is found that regions with a initial strong nutrient limitation are more efficient in terms of nutrient assimilation which makes them more resilient in face of the acceleration of the upwelling circulation.}, }
@article {pmid29656456, year = {2018}, author = {Yalcin, S and Leroux, SJ}, title = {An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {3849-3861}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14169}, pmid = {29656456}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Land-cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981-1985 and 2001-2005 are correlated with land-cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land-cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land-cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated with heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land-cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction.}, }
@article {pmid29656409, year = {2018}, author = {Goodarzi, M and Abedi-Koupai, J and Heidarpour, M}, title = {Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigation Water Demands and Its Resulting Consequences on Groundwater Using CMIP5 Models.}, journal = {Ground water}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gwat.12771}, pmid = {29656409}, issn = {1745-6584}, abstract = {In this study, the impacts of climate change on crop water requirements and irrigation water requirements on the regional cropping pattern were evaluated using two climate change scenarios and combinations of 20 GCM models. Different models including CROPWAT, MODFLOW, and statistical models were used to evaluate the climate change impacts. The results showed that in the future period (2017 to 2046) the temperature in all months of the year will increase at all stations. The average annual precipitation decline in Isfahan, Tiran, Flavarjan, and Lenj stations for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are 18.6 and 27.6%, 15.2 and 18%, 22.5 and 31.5%, and 10.5 and 12.1%, respectively. The average increase in the evapotranspiration for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are about 2.5 and 4.1%, respectively. The irrigation water demands increases considerably and for some crops, on average 18%. Among the existing crops in the cropping pattern, barley, cumin, onion, wheat, and forage crops are more sensitive and their water demand will increase significantly. Results indicate that climate change could have a significant impact on water resources consumption. By considering irrigation efficiency in the region, climate change impacts will result in about 35 to 50 million m3 /year, over-extraction from the aquifer. This additional exploitation causes an extra drop of 0.4 to 0.8 m in groundwater table per year in the aquifer. Therefore, with regard to the critical condition of the aquifer, management and preventive measures to deal with climate change in the future is absolutely necessary.}, }
@article {pmid29655850, year = {2018}, author = {Dutta, SM and Mustafi, SB and Raha, S and Chakraborty, SK}, title = {Biomonitoring role of some cellular markers during heat stress-induced changes in highly representative fresh water mollusc, Bellamya bengalensis: Implication in climate change and biological adaptation.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {157}, number = {}, pages = {482-490}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2018.04.001}, pmid = {29655850}, issn = {1090-2414}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; Biological Oxygen Demand Analysis ; Biomarkers/*metabolism ; Catalase/metabolism ; Chemical Phenomena ; Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Fresh Water ; Glutathione/metabolism ; Glutathione Peroxidase/metabolism ; Glutathione Reductase/metabolism ; HSP70 Heat-Shock Proteins/genetics/metabolism ; *Hot Temperature ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; India ; Mollusca/*physiology ; Oxidative Stress ; Seasons ; *Stress, Physiological ; Superoxide Dismutase/metabolism ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Owing to increasing concern of global climate-change, temperature rise is of great interest which can be primarily evaluated from the seasonal variations in some organisms. Aquatic environment can be extremely stressful to its inhabitants because most of them are poikilothermous. In the present study, attempt was made to evaluate the biological effects of oxidative-stress and adaptive/antioxidant capacities during temperature variations (36-40 °C for 24hrs to 72hrs) in Bellamya bengalensis both in environmental and laboratory conditions by testing some biomarkers like HSP70, catalase (CAT), superoxide dismutase (SOD), reduced glutathione (GSH) and glutathione reductase (GR). The biomarker potency of the molecules and the anti-oxidative metabolic-network was postulated and extrapolated to find its resemblance to the climate-change associated organismal variations. In a natural and eco-restored environment in the Eastern part of India, 10-20 fold increases in CAT, SOD and HSP70 protein expressions (Western blot results) were noticed in Bellamya paralleling to their increased enzymatic activities (gel zymogram studies) due to the seasonal (summer versus winter) temperature variation. It is evident from the consecutive three years' study that this variation resulted in the unfavorable physico-chemical changes of water quality parameters like dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, alkalinity and consequently decreased the animal density in summer. And that was revived due to their higher reproduction-rate in post rainy/winter season when temperature normalizes resulting in a restoration of favorable environment. In laboratory condition, the reduced GR and increased GPx indicated the oxidative damage as evident by higher tissue MDA level following to higher mortality. Changes in SOD and CAT activities suggest activation of physiological mechanism to scavenge the ROS produced during heat stress. However, when mortality increased at different time points (36 °C - 72 h and 38 °C - 72 h), these enzyme activities also decreased as they failed to save the tissues from ROS. The results suggest that temperature variation does alter the active oxygen metabolism by modulating antioxidant enzyme activities, which can be used as biomarker to detect sub-lethal effects of climate change-associated pollution. The parity in environmental and laboratory experimental results may justify this laboratory experiment as model heat-stress experiment and indicate temperature as a universal stressor which alone or in combination with other water parameters initiates a consistent adapting behavior. The Bellamya bengalensis being the highest faunal representative in its habitat may serve as a good bioindicator species.}, }
@article {pmid29655118, year = {2018}, author = {De Marchi, L and Neto, V and Pretti, C and Figueira, E and Chiellini, F and Morelli, A and Soares, AMVM and Freitas, R}, title = {Effects of multi-walled carbon nanotube materials on Ruditapes philippinarum under climate change: The case of salinity shifts.}, journal = {Aquatic toxicology (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {199}, number = {}, pages = {199-211}, doi = {10.1016/j.aquatox.2018.04.001}, pmid = {29655118}, issn = {1879-1514}, mesh = {Animals ; Antioxidants/metabolism ; Biotransformation/drug effects ; Bivalvia/*drug effects/enzymology ; *Climate Change ; Dynamic Light Scattering ; Energy Metabolism/drug effects ; Glutathione/metabolism ; Glycogen/metabolism ; Lipid Peroxidation/drug effects ; Multivariate Analysis ; Nanotubes, Carbon/*toxicity/ultrastructure ; Neurotoxins/toxicity ; Oxidative Stress/drug effects ; Particle Size ; *Salinity ; Seawater ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/toxicity ; }, abstract = {The toxicity of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) is closely related to their physico-chemical characteristics as well as the physico-chemical parameters of the media where CNTs are dispersed. In a climate change scenario, changes in seawater salinity are becoming a topic of concern particularly in estuarine and coastal areas. Nevertheless, to our knowledge no information is available on how salinity shifts may alter the sensitivity (in terms of biochemical responses) of bivalves when exposed to different CNTs. For this reason, a laboratory experiment was performed exposing the Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum, one of the most dominant bivalves of the estuarine and coastal lagoon environments, for 28 days to unfunctionalized multi-walled carbon nanotube MWCNTs (Nf-MWCNTs) and carboxylated MWCNTs (f-MWCNTs), maintained at control salinity (28) and low salinity 21. Concentration-dependent toxicity was demonstrated in individuals exposed to both MWCNT materials and under both salinities, generating alterations of energy reserves and metabolism, oxidative status and neurotoxicity compared to non-contaminated clams. Moreover, our results showed greater toxic impacts induced in clams exposed to f-MWCNTs compared to Nf-MWCNTs. In the present study it was also demonstrated how salinity shifts altered the toxicity of both MWCNT materials as well as the sensitivity of R. philippinarum exposed to these contaminates in terms of clam metabolism, oxidative status and neurotoxicity.}, }
@article {pmid29653722, year = {2018}, author = {Schwartz, SA}, title = {War, Climate Change, and Migration.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {172-176}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2018.03.006}, pmid = {29653722}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Emigration and Immigration ; *Human Rights ; Humans ; *Refugees ; United States ; *Warfare ; }, }
@article {pmid29651454, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, F and Romaniello, SJ and Algeo, TJ and Lau, KV and Clapham, ME and Richoz, S and Herrmann, AD and Smith, H and Horacek, M and Anbar, AD}, title = {Multiple episodes of extensive marine anoxia linked to global warming and continental weathering following the latest Permian mass extinction.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {e1602921}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1602921}, pmid = {29651454}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Explaining the ~5-million-year delay in marine biotic recovery following the latest Permian mass extinction, the largest biotic crisis of the Phanerozoic, is a fundamental challenge for both geological and biological sciences. Ocean redox perturbations may have played a critical role in this delayed recovery. However, the lack of quantitative constraints on the details of Early Triassic oceanic anoxia (for example, time, duration, and extent) leaves the links between oceanic conditions and the delayed biotic recovery ambiguous. We report high-resolution U-isotope (δ238U) data from carbonates of the uppermost Permian to lowermost Middle Triassic Zal section (Iran) to characterize the timing and global extent of ocean redox variation during the Early Triassic. Our δ238U record reveals multiple negative shifts during the Early Triassic. Isotope mass-balance modeling suggests that the global area of anoxic seafloor expanded substantially in the Early Triassic, peaking during the latest Permian to mid-Griesbachian, the late Griesbachian to mid-Dienerian, the Smithian-Spathian transition, and the Early/Middle Triassic transition. Comparisons of the U-, C-, and Sr-isotope records with a modeled seawater PO43- concentration curve for the Early Triassic suggest that elevated marine productivity and enhanced oceanic stratification were likely the immediate causes of expanded oceanic anoxia. The patterns of redox variation documented by the U-isotope record show a good first-order correspondence to peaks in ammonoid extinctions during the Early Triassic. Our results indicate that multiple oscillations in oceanic anoxia modulated the recovery of marine ecosystems following the latest Permian mass extinction.}, }
@article {pmid29651148, year = {2018}, author = {Sultana, S and Baumgartner, JB and Dominiak, BC and Royer, JE and Beaumont, LJ}, title = {Author Correction: Potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability for the Queensland fruit fly.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {6118}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-23430-2}, pmid = {29651148}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has been fixed in the paper.}, }
@article {pmid29651147, year = {2018}, author = {You, J and Qin, X and Ranjitkar, S and Lougheed, SC and Wang, M and Zhou, W and Ouyang, D and Zhou, Y and Xu, J and Zhang, W and Wang, Y and Yang, J and Song, Z}, title = {Response to climate change of montane herbaceous plants in the genus Rhodiola predicted by ecological niche modelling.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {5879}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-24360-9}, pmid = {29651147}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change profoundly influences species distributions. These effects are evident in poleward latitudinal range shifts for many taxa, and upward altitudinal range shifts for alpine species, that resulted from increased annual global temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 22,000 BP). For the latter, the ultimate consequence of upward shifts may be extinction as species in the highest alpine ecosystems can migrate no further, a phenomenon often characterized as &quot;nowhere to go&quot;. To predict responses to climate change of the alpine plants on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) to estimate the range shifts of 14 Rhodiola species, beginning with the Last Interglacial (ca. 120,000-140,000 BP) through to 2050. Distributions of Rhodiola species appear to be shaped by temperature-related variables. The southeastern QTP, and especially the Hengduan Mountains, were the origin and center of distribution for Rhodiola, and also served as refugia during the LGM. Under future climate scenario in 2050, Rhodiola species might have to migrate upward and northward, but many species would expand their ranges contra the prediction of the &quot;nowhere to go&quot; hypothesis, caused by the appearance of additional potential habitat concomitant with the reduction of permafrost with climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid29644604, year = {2018}, author = {Mas-Pla, J and Menció, A}, title = {Groundwater nitrate pollution and climate change: learnings from a water balance-based analysis of several aquifers in a western Mediterranean region (Catalonia).}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-1859-8}, pmid = {29644604}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {CGL2014-57215-C4-2-R//MINECO/ ; MPCUdG2016/061//Universitat de Girona/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change will affect the dynamics of the hydrogeological systems and their water resources quality; in particular nitrate, which is herein taken as a paradigmatic pollutant to illustrate the effects of climate change on groundwater quality. Based on climatic predictions of temperature and precipitation for the horizon of 2021 and 2050, as well as on land use distribution, water balances are recalculated for the hydrological basins of distinct aquifer systems in a western Mediterranean region as Catalonia (NE Spain) in order to determine the reduction of available water resources. Besides the fact that climate change will represent a decrease of water availability, we qualitatively discuss the modifications that will result from the future climatic scenarios and their impact on nitrate pollution according to the geological setting of the selected aquifers. Climate effects in groundwater quality are described according to hydrological, environmental, socio-economic, and political concerns. Water reduction stands as a major issue that will control stream-aquifer interactions and subsurface recharge, leading to a general modification of nitrate in groundwater as dilution varies. A nitrate mass balance model provides a gross estimation of potential nitrate evolution in these aquifers, and it points out that the control of the fertilizer load will be crucial to achieve adequate nitrate content in groundwater. Reclaimed wastewater stands as local reliable resource, yet its amount will only satisfy a fraction of the loss of available resources due to climate change. Finally, an integrated management perspective is necessary to avoid unplanned actions from private initiatives that will jeopardize the achievement of sustainable water resources exploitation under distinct hydrological scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid29643497, year = {2018}, author = {Khan, SA}, title = {Curtail climate-change effects using Singapore Index of Cities' Biodiversity.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {556}, number = {7700}, pages = {174}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-04168-3}, pmid = {29643497}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Cities ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Singapore ; }, }
@article {pmid29642815, year = {2018}, author = {Sly, PD and Holt, PG}, title = {Pollution, climate change, and childhood asthma in Australia.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {208}, number = {7}, pages = {297-298}, pmid = {29642815}, issn = {1326-5377}, }
@article {pmid29642810, year = {2018}, author = {Madden, DL and McLean, M and Horton, GL}, title = {Preparing medical graduates for the health effects of climate change: an Australasian collaboration.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {208}, number = {7}, pages = {291-292}, pmid = {29642810}, issn = {1326-5377}, }
@article {pmid29642807, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, Y and Beggs, PJ}, title = {The Lancet Countdown down under: tracking progress on health and climate change in Australia.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {208}, number = {7}, pages = {285-286}, pmid = {29642807}, issn = {1326-5377}, }
@article {pmid29638230, year = {2018}, author = {Anderson, JG and Clapp, CE}, title = {Coupling free radical catalysis, climate change, and human health.}, journal = {Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP}, volume = {20}, number = {16}, pages = {10569-10587}, doi = {10.1039/c7cp08331a}, pmid = {29638230}, issn = {1463-9084}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/chemistr