@article {pmid31116787, year = {2019}, author = {Zuo, J and Xu, J and Li, W and Yang, D}, title = {Understanding shallow soil moisture variation in the data-scarce area and its relationship with climate change by GLDAS data.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0217020}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0217020}, pmid = {31116787}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Quantitatively evaluating the spatiotemporal variation of soil moisture (SM) and its causes can help us to understand regional eco-hydrological processes. However, the complicated geographical environment and the scarce observation data make it difficult to evaluate SM in Northwest China. Selecting the Tarim River Basin (TRB) as a typical representative of the data-scarce area in Northwest China, we conducted an integrated approach to quantitatively assess the spatiotemporal variation of shallow soil moisture (SSM) and its responses to climate change by gathering the earth system data product. Results show that the low-value of SSM distributes in Taklamakan Desert while the high-value basically distributes in the Pamirs and the southern foothill of Tianshan Mountains, where the land types are mostly forest, grassland, and farmland. Annual average SSM of these three land types present a significant increasing trend during the study period. SM at 0-10 cm of all land types are positively correlated to precipitation in spring and autumn, and SM at 0-10 cm in the forest, grassland, and farmland are positively correlated with temperature in winter. SSM presents in-phase relation with precipitation whereas it presents anti-phase relation with temperature, with the significant resonance periods about 6-8 years and 2-3 years which mainly distribute from 1970s to early 1990s and 1960s respectively. The time lags of SSM relative to temperature change are longer than its lags relative to precipitation change, and the lags vary from different land types.}, }
@article {pmid31113889, year = {2019}, author = {Kovaleski, AP and Baseggio, M}, title = {Is increased corn yield really the silver lining of climate change?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {21}, pages = {10206-10208}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1904487116}, pmid = {31113889}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid31112555, year = {2019}, author = {de Oliveira, UDR and Gomes, PB and Silva Cordeiro, RT and de Lima, GV and Pérez, CD}, title = {Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential habitat of an endangered Brazilian endemic coral: Discussion about deep sea refugia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0211171}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0211171}, pmid = {31112555}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate and environmental conditions are determinant for coral distribution and their very existence. When changes in such conditions occur, their effects on distribution can be predicted through species distribution models, anticipating suitable habitats for the subsistence of species. Mussismilia harttii is one of the most endangered Brazilian endemic reef-building corals, and in increasing risk of extinction. Herein, species distribution models were used to determine the present and future potential habitats for M. harttii. Estimations were made through the maximum entropy approach, predicting suitable habitat losses and gains by the end of the 21st century. For this purpose, species records published in the last 20 years and current and future environmental variables were correlated. The best models were chosen according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and evaluated through the partial ROC (AUCratio), a new approach which uses independent occurrence data. Both approaches showed that the models performed satisfactorily in predicting potential habitat areas for the species. Future projections were made using the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2100, with different levels of greenhouse gas emission. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to model the Future Potential Habitat (FPH) of M. harttii in two different scenarios: stabilization of emissions (RCP 4.5) and increase of emissions (RCP 8.5). According to the results, shallow waters to the south of the study area concentrate most of the current potential habitats for the species. However, in future scenarios, there was a loss of suitable areas in relation to the Current Potential Habitat (RCP 4.5 46% and RCP 8.5 59%), whereas there is a southward shift of the suitable areas. In all scenarios of FPH, the temperature was the variable with the greatest contribution to the models (> 35%), followed by the current velocity (> 33%) and bathymetry (>29%). In contrast, there is an increase of deep (50-75 m) suitable areas FPH scenarios, mainly in the southern portion of its distribution, at Abrolhos Bank (off Espirito Santo State). These deeper sites might serve as refugia for the species in global warming scenarios. Coral communities at such depths would be less susceptible to impacts of climate change on temperature and salinity. However, the deep sea is not free from human impacts and measures to protect deeper ecosystems should be prioritized in environmental policies for Brazilian marine conservation, especially the Abrolhos Bank, due to its importance for M. harttii.}, }
@article {pmid31111639, year = {2019}, author = {Azzurro, E and Sbragaglia, V and Cerri, J and Bariche, M and Bolognini, L and Ben Souissi, J and Busoni, G and Coco, S and Chryssanthi, A and Fanelli, E and Ghanem, R and Garrabou, J and Gianni, F and Grati, F and Kolitari, J and Letterio, G and Lipej, L and Mazzoldi, C and Milone, N and Pannacciulli, F and Pešić, A and Samuel-Rhoads, Y and Saponari, L and Tomanic, J and Eda Topçu, N and Vargiu, G and Moschella, P}, title = {Climate change, biological invasions, and the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes: A large-scale survey based on local ecological knowledge.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14670}, pmid = {31111639}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {MPA-Adapt 1MED15_3.2_M2_337//European Regional Development Fund/ ; //Albert II of Monaco Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change and biological invasions are rapidly reshuffling species distribution, restructuring the biological communities of many ecosystems worldwide. Tracking these transformations in the marine environment is crucial, but our understanding of climate change effects and invasive species dynamics is often hampered by the practical challenge of surveying large geographical areas. Here, we focus on the Mediterranean Sea, a hot spot for climate change and biological invasions to investigate recent spatiotemporal changes in fish abundances and distribution. To this end, we accessed the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of small-scale and recreational fishers, reconstructing the dynamics of fish perceived as "new" or increasing in different fishing areas. Over 500 fishers across 95 locations and nine different countries were interviewed, and semiquantitative information on yearly changes in species abundance was collected. Overall, 75 species were mentioned by the respondents, mostly warm-adapted species of both native and exotic origin. Respondents belonging to the same biogeographic sectors described coherent spatial and temporal patterns, and gradients along latitudinal and longitudinal axes were revealed. This information provides a more complete understanding of the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes and it also demonstrates that adequately structured LEK methodology might be applied successfully beyond the local scale, across national borders and jurisdictions. Acknowledging this potential through macroregional coordination could pave the way for future large-scale aggregations of individual observations, increasing our potential for integrated monitoring and conservation planning at the regional or even global level. This might help local communities to better understand, manage, and adapt to the ongoing biotic transformations driven by climate change and biological invaders.}, }
@article {pmid31110687, year = {2019}, author = {Gong, H and Liu, H and Jiao, F and Lin, Z and Xu, X}, title = {Pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise on the future distribution of Spartina alterniflora along the Chinese coast.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {5380-5391}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5129}, pmid = {31110687}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Aim: Global change seriously threatens the salt marsh ecosystem, while it remains unclear how S. will respond to climate change and sea level rise. Here, we investigated interactions among variables and identified the impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and their interactions on the distribution of Spartina alterniflora.<br><br>Location: Northern Chinese coast and Southern Chinese coast.<br><br>Taxon: Spartina alterniflora Loisel.<br><br>Methods: With global sensitivity analysis, we determined interactions among variables and their relative importance to the distribution of S. alterniflora. Integrating the Venn's four-set diagram, we built ecological niche models under current and three future scenarios to identify pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise on the distribution of S. alterniflora.<br><br>Results: Mean diurnal range (Bio02) and Elevation were the two most critical variables controlling the distribution of S. alterniflora on the Chinese coast, and interactions among variables of the northern coast were much greater than that of the southern coast. Habitats change was mainly caused by pure effects of climate change, except habitats reduction on the southern coast. Pure effects of sea level rise were low, but it can influence habitats change through shared and coupling effects from complex interactions with climate change. Interactions of climate change and sea level rise can drive habitats change, and the changed habitats caused by shared and coupling effects were mainly distributed the areas near the landward side.<br><br>Main conclusions: Our research suggests paying attention to interactions among variables when calculating the relative importance of explanatory variables. Identifying pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise for the distribution of S. alterniflora will provide scientific references for assessing the risk of similar coastal species.}, }
@article {pmid31110674, year = {2019}, author = {Jia, SW and Zhang, ML}, title = {Pleistocene climate change and phylogeographic structure of the Gymnocarpos przewalskii (Caryophyllaceae) in the northwest China: Evidence from plastid DNA, ITS sequences, and Microsatellite.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {5219-5235}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5113}, pmid = {31110674}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Northwestern China has a wealth of endemic species, which has been hypothesized to be affected by the complex paleoclimatic and paleogeographic history during Quaternary. In this paper, we used Gymnocarpos przewalskii as a model to address the evolutionary history and current population genetic structure of species in northwestern China. We employed two chloroplast DNA fragments (rps16 and psbB-psbI), one nuclear DNA fragment (ITS), and simple sequence repeat (SSRs) to investigate the spatial genetic pattern of G. przewalskii. High genetic diversity (cpDNA: hS = 0.330, hT = 0.866; ITS: hS = 0.458, hT = 0.872) was identified in almost all populations, and most of the population have private haplotypes. Moreover, multimodal mismatch distributions were observed and estimates of Tajima's D and Fu's FS tests did not identify significantly departures from neutrality, indicating that recent expansion of G. przewalskii was rejected. Thus, we inferred that G. przewalskii survived generally in northwestern China during the Pleistocene. All data together support the genotypes of G. przewalskii into three groups, consistent with their respective geographical distributions in the western regions-Tarim Basin, the central regions-Hami Basin and Hexi Corridor, and the eastern regions-Alxa Desert and Wulate Prairie. Divergence among most lineages of G. przewalskii occurred in the Pleistocene, and the range of potential distributions is associated with glacial cycles. We concluded that climate oscillation during Pleistocene significantly affected the distribution of the species.}, }
@article {pmid31107027, year = {2019}, author = {Luo, X and Liang, Y and He, HS and Huang, C and Zhang, QL}, title = {[Effects of climate change, fire and silvicultural management on ecological resilience of typical cold-temperate forests in China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {1699-1712}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201905.011}, pmid = {31107027}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {Ecological resilience is characterized by the recovery capacity of forest ecosystem from a status affected by external disturbance to a stable status, which is one of the important targets for sustainable development of forests. Ecological resilience is sensitive to external factors, such as climate change, forest fire, and silvicutural management at large scales. Understanding the effects of those factors on ecological resilience is important for forest ecosystem management. In this study, we calculated ecological resilience with indicators including forest structure, composition and function. We used a landscape model LANDIS PRO to evaluate the effects of climate change, climate-induced fire, and silvicultural management on ecological resilience in boreal forests. We also evaluated whether the current thinning treatment could be implemented under the scenarios of climate change. The results showed that the initialized stand density and basal area from the year 2000 could represent the real forest landscape in year 2000, with no significant difference between the simulated landscape and the forest inventory data in the year 2010 at landscape scale. The results of simulated fire disturbance were consistent with the results from the field inventories in burned areas. The fire module parameters set adequately represented the current fire regimes in model simulation. The ecological resilience could increase by 15.7%-40.8% at landscape scale when fire intensity increased by 30%, whereas the ecological resilience decreased by 4.4%-24.6% when fire intensity increased by 200%. At the short and medium term, the effects of increased fire on forest ecological resilience were greater than that of climate change. Compared to the current base scenario, forest ecological resilience under B1 climate with fire intensity increased by 30% scenario and A2 climate with fire intensity increased by 200% scenario fluctuated in the ranges of -15.9%-38.9% and -60.4%-34.8% in the whole simulation period at landscape scale. Compared to no harvesting scenario, the current thinning strategy would decrease the ecological resilience at landscape scale under both B1 and A2 scenarios in all simulated periods. Under the scenario of B1 climate with 30% increases of fire intensity, no silvicultural management would be needed in the whole simulation period at landscape scale, whereas medium and high intensity of silvicultural management were suggested under the scenario of A2 climate with 200% increase of fire intensity.}, }
@article {pmid31107005, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, YG and Yuan, FH and Wang, AZ and Wu, JB and Zheng, XB and Yin, H and Guan, X}, title = {[Characteristics of climate change in Changbai Mountain ecological functional area, Northeast China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {1503-1512}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201905.006}, pmid = {31107005}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {We integrated the meteorological records from 36 national weather stations and CN05.1 gridded daily observation dataset to analyze the climate change characteristics of Changbai Mountain eco-functional area. Linear tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall mutation test, cumulative anomaly method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to investigate the temporal and spatial variation of temperature (annual temperature, seasonal temperature, extreme temperature), moisture (annual precipitation, seasonal precipitation, relative humidity), radiation (sunshine duration, sunshine percentage) and wind speed from 1961 to 2016. The results showed that, during 1961-2016, the temperature of this area increased, the radiation and wind speed decreased, and the precipitation varied periodically. Specifically, winter temperature [0.45 ℃·(10 a)-1] and the lowest temperature [0.74 ℃·(10 a)-1] significantly increased. The mean annual wind speed significantly decreased [-0.21 m·s-1·(10 a)-1]. No abrupt climate change was observed. The annual precipitation days decreased considerably [-7.01 d·(10 a)-1], which was different from the climate change pattern of Northeast China. The annual precipitation trend coefficient of this area was 16.06 mm·(10 a)-1 , which could not be simply depicted by increase or decrease in trend. The precipitation change in this area was dominated by periodically patterns, and the period was 26 years and 3 years. Our results would be instructive to the regional ecological assessment, and the research on ecosystem responses to climate change and phenological changes.}, }
@article {pmid31106269, year = {2019}, author = {Bascompte, J and García, MB and Ortega, R and Rezende, EL and Pironon, S}, title = {Mutualistic interactions reshuffle the effects of climate change on plants across the tree of life.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {eaav2539}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aav2539}, pmid = {31106269}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Climatically induced local species extinctions may trigger coextinction cascades, thus driving many more species to extinction than originally predicted by species distribution models. Using seven pollination networks across Europe that include the phylogeny and life history traits of plants, we show a substantial variability across networks in climatically predicted plant extinction-and particularly the subsequent coextinction-rates, with much higher values in Mediterranean than Eurosiberian networks. While geographic location best predicts the probability of a plant species to be driven to extinction by climate change, subsequent coextinctions are best predicted by the local network of interactions. These coextinctions not only increase the total number of plant species being driven to extinction but also add a bias in the way the major taxonomic and functional groups are pruned.}, }
@article {pmid31102688, year = {2019}, author = {Azani, N and Bruneau, A and Wojciechowski, MF and Zarre, S}, title = {Miocene climate change as a driving force for multiple origins of annual species in Astragalus (Fabaceae, Papilionoideae).}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2019.05.008}, pmid = {31102688}, issn = {1095-9513}, abstract = {Astragalus, a highly diverse genus of flowering plants with its highest center of diversity in West Asia, is a classic example of rapid species-level radiation and adaptation to a diversity of habitats throughout the world. We examined the historical biogeography of Astragalus using molecular dating and ancestral area reconstruction to understand how past climate changes, geographical patterns and transition in life history have provoked diversification of Astragalus. Our results suggest that Astragalus probably originated during the middle Miocene in West Asia, underwent rapid diversification, subsequently and repeatedly expanded its range in the Mediterranean region, and later to North America through West Europe. This distribution range was also extended toward central and eastern Asia from the Middle Miocene to Pleistocene. Several climatic and geological processes during the Miocene-Pliocene may be implicated in the diversification of the major Astragalus clades. In particular, the annual lineages, which are important elements in the Mediterranean flora of Africa and Europe and in the deserts of southwest to central Asia, have arisen in response to progressing aridity from the late Miocene onwards (between 8.6 Ma to 2.98 Ma). Diversification rate analyses indicate three rapid and recent diversification events, one at c. 11 Ma in the clade that groups most of the Astragalus s.s. (all except the Ophiocarpus sister lineage), one at c. 5 Ma in the crown group of the Hypoglottis clade, including herbaceous annual and perennial species, and the most recent one at c. 3 Ma in the spiny cushion forming Astracantha clade. Our study highlights the complexity of processes and factors shaping diversifications in Astragalus; a complex interaction among climatic modifications providing opportunities for diversification and likely coincident with the evolution of key morphological and physiological adaptations.}, }
@article {pmid31097909, year = {2018}, author = {Sarkar, S and Butcher, JB and Johnson, TE and Clark, CM}, title = {Simulated Sensitivity of Urban Green Infrastructure Practices to Climate Change.}, journal = {Earth interactions}, volume = {22}, number = {13}, pages = {1-37}, doi = {10.1175/EI-D-17-0015.1}, pmid = {31097909}, issn = {1087-3562}, abstract = {Climate change is likely to alter the quantity and quality of urban stormwater, presenting a risk to water quality and public health. How might stormwater management practices need to change to address future climate? Answering requires understanding how management practices respond to climate forcing. Traditional &quot;gray&quot; stormwater design employs engineered structures, sized based on assumptions about future rainfall, which have limited flexibility once built. Green infrastructure (GI) uses vegetation, soil, and distributed structures to manage rainwater where it falls and may provide greater flexibility for adaptation. There is, however, uncertainty about how a warmer climate may affect performance of different types of GI. This study uses the hydrologic and biogeochemical watershed model, Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), to investigate sensitivity of different GI practices to climate. Simulations examine 36 urban &quot;archetypes&quot; representing different development patterns (at the city block scale) of typical U.S. cities, eleven regional climatic settings, and a range of mid-21st century scenarios based on downscaled climate model output. Results suggest regionally variable effects of climate change on the performance of GI practices for water quantity, water quality, and carbon sequestration. GI is able to mitigate most projected future increases in surface runoff, while bioretention can mitigate increased nitrogen yield at nine of eleven sites. Simulated changes in carbon balance are small, while local evaporative cooling can be substantial. Given uncertainty in the local expression of future climate, infrastructure design should emphasize flexibility and robustness to a range of future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid31096661, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, L and Guo, Z and Huang, G and Wang, R}, title = {Water Productivity Evaluation under Multi-GCM Projections of Climate Change in Oases of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16101706}, pmid = {31096661}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {2017YFC0403201//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 91425302//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {As the second largest inland river basin situated in the middle of the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China, the Heihe River basin (HRB) has been facing a severe water shortage problem, which seriously restricts its green and sustainable development. The evaluation of climate change impact on water productivity inferred by crop yield and actual evapotranspiration is of significant importance for water-saving in agricultural regions. In this study, the multi-model projections of climate change under the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) were used to drive an agro-hydrological model to evaluate the crop water productivity in the middle irrigated oases of the HRB from 2021-2050. Compared with the water productivity simulation based on field experiments during 2012-2015, the projected water productivity in the two typical agricultural areas (Gaotai and Ganzhou) both exhibited an increasing trend in the future 30 years, which was mainly attributed to the significant decrease of the crop water consumption. The water productivity in the Gaotai area under the three RCP scenarios during 2021-2050 increased by 9.2%, 14.3%, and 11.8%, while the water productivity increased by 15.4%, 21.6%, and 19.9% in the Ganzhou area, respectively. The findings can provide useful information on the Hexi Corridor and the Belt and Road to policy-makers and stakeholders for sustainable development of the water-ecosystem-economy system.}, }
@article {pmid31096360, year = {2019}, author = {Lin, B and Zhu, J}, title = {The role of renewable energy technological innovation on climate change: Empirical evidence from China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {659}, number = {}, pages = {1505-1512}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.449}, pmid = {31096360}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {To develop renewable energy as well as promote China's transition to a low-carbon economy, the government needs to pay attention to renewable energy technological innovation (RETI). Using China's provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015, and regarding the CO2 emissions as the proxy of climate change, this paper identifies the relationship between RETI and CO2 emissions as well as seeks to confirm the role of RETI on climate change. The linear regression model confirms that the RETI has a significant negative effect on CO2 emissions. In addition, considering the disparities of energy structure, the impacts of RETI on CO2 emissions may be distinct. We, therefore, construct a panel threshold model by taking into account the distinct effect of RETI under different energy structure. We find that the effect of RETI on curbing CO2 emissions decreases with the rising of coal-dominated energy consumption structure but in contrast, this effect increases with the growing proportion of renewable energy generation. This paper provides new insight into the relationship between technological innovation and climate change. Based on these findings, some relevant policy recommendations are proposed.}, }
@article {pmid31093053, year = {2018}, author = {Ridel, GM and García, JG and Fernández, MCR and Cala, DC and Rodríguez, YF and Lavastida, JEB}, title = {[The health sector in the face of disasters and climate change in CubaO setor da saúde diante de desastres e mudanças climáticas em Cuba].}, journal = {Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {e24}, doi = {10.26633/RPSP.2018.24}, pmid = {31093053}, issn = {1680-5348}, abstract = {Due to its impact on human health and its capacity to cause damage, disasters are one of the global problems that most concern the international community. However, and in spite of the efforts made by many health systems, the reduction of vulnerabilities and the lack of strategies to avoid or minimize risks have not received enough attention yet. As Cuba is located in an area of permanent danger of disasters, its health sector has accumulated considerable experience in the management of risks and in the assurance of less risky future scenarios, with active participation of the community and a planned and organized process to address the impact of climate change. This paper summarizes some of these experiences and describes the dangers, vulnerabilities, and risks of disasters in Cuba, its Civil Defense System, and planning and organization in the health sector for disaster reduction, as well as the main effects and challenges of climate change in the health system. Lessons learned and good practices support the key role of human resources to reduce vulnerabilities; the greatest challenges are to avoid or minimize risks, to advance research, to train professionals for climate change, and to optimize the organization of health systems and services in the country.}, }
@article {pmid31092905, year = {2019}, author = {Hutchins, DA and Jansson, JK and Remais, JV and Rich, VI and Singh, BK and Trivedi, P}, title = {Climate change microbiology - problems and perspectives.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {391-396}, doi = {10.1038/s41579-019-0178-5}, pmid = {31092905}, issn = {1740-1534}, abstract = {The signs of climate change are undeniable, and the inevitable impact for Earth and all its inhabitants is a serious concern. Ice is melting, sea levels are rising, biodiversity is declining, precipitation has increased, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases are alarmingly high, and extreme weather conditions are becoming increasingly common. But what role do microorganisms have in this global challenge? In this Viewpoint article, several experts in the field discuss the microbial contributions to climate change and consider the effects of global warming, extreme weather, flooding and other consequences of climate change on microbial communities in the ocean and soil, on host-microbiota interactions and on the global burden of infectious diseases and ecosystem processes, and they explore open questions and research needs.}, }
@article {pmid31091494, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, Q and Zhang, X and Almendinger, JE and Huang, M and Chen, X and Leng, G and Zhou, Y and Zhao, K and Asrar, GR and Li, X}, title = {Climate change will pose challenges to water quality management in the st. Croix River basin.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {251}, number = {}, pages = {302-311}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.04.129}, pmid = {31091494}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Responses of streamflow and nutrient export to changing climate conditions should be investigated for effective water quality management and pollution control. Using downscaled climate projections and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we projected future streamflow, sediment export, and riverine nutrient export in the St. Croix River Basin (SCRB) during 2020-2099. Results show substantial increases in riverine water, sediment, and nutrient load under future climate conditions, particularly under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Intensified water cycling and enhanced nutrient export will pose challenges to water quality management and affect multiple Best Management Practices (BMPs) efforts, which are aimed at reducing nutrient loads in SCRB. In addition to the physical impacts of climate change on terrestrial hydrology, our analyses demonstrate significant reductions in ET under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Changes in plant physiology induced by climate change may markedly affect water cycling and associated sediment and nutrient export. Results of this study highlight the importance of examining climate change impacts on water and nutrient delivery for effective watershed management.}, }
@article {pmid31089453, year = {2019}, author = {Pawankar, R}, title = {Climate change, air pollution, and biodiversity in Asia Pacific: impact on allergic diseases.}, journal = {Asia Pacific allergy}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {e11}, doi = {10.5415/apallergy.2019.9.e11}, pmid = {31089453}, issn = {2233-8276}, }
@article {pmid31088668, year = {2019}, author = {Deviatkin, I and Lyu, L and Chen, S and Havukainen, J and Wang, F and Horttanainen, M and Mänttäri, M}, title = {Technical implications and global warming potential of recovering nitrogen released during continuous thermal drying of sewage sludge.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {90}, number = {}, pages = {132-140}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2019.04.031}, pmid = {31088668}, issn = {1879-2456}, abstract = {Thermal drying and consequent incineration of sewage sludge result in an absolute loss of an important macronutrient - nitrogen. To fulfill the growing food demand, humanity relies more on industrial fixation of nitrogen, primarily via the Haber-Bosch process. The present paper examines the nitrogen release during continuous thermal drying of municipal sewage sludge and its consequent recovery for fertilization. Furthermore, the possibility of nitrogen recovery from condensate is assessed. Finally, the study assesses the global warming potential of the proposed nitrogen recovery system and compares it with the baseline system manufacturing fertilizers from industrially fixed nitrogen. The results of the drying experiments showed that 0.73-1.03 g N-NH3 kg-1 total solids of sewage sludge was released to off-gases during its continuous thermal drying under 160 °C, which corresponds to 41-58% of ionized nitrogen content in raw sewage sludge subjected to thermal drying. The global warming potential of the nitrogen recovery was 28% lower compared to that of the commercial fertilizer production of equivalent properties: 4.1 kg CO2-Equiv. kg-1 N versus 5.7 kg CO2-Equiv. kg-1 N. Still, the sensitivity analysis showed that the results might traverse and lead to a higher global warming potential of 6.2 kg CO2-Equiv. during the nitrogen recovery process under certain process parameters.}, }
@article {pmid31087444, year = {2019}, author = {Shilt-Moody, N and Tsai, E}, title = {Turning the tide: The shift to climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of healthcare risk management : the journal of the American Society for Healthcare Risk Management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jhrm.21365}, pmid = {31087444}, issn = {2040-0861}, abstract = {In the United States, a growing number of companies are taking progressive steps to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Already, more than half of all Fortune 100 companies have announced clean energy targets, signaling climate change risk reduction is becoming a top priority. Climate change is not without controversy, yet it is a real business concern among corporate executives and health care leaders alike. From fears stoked by devastating wildfires in California to a rising tide of financial hardships due to hurricane flooding in the Southeast, it seems no region is immune to Mother Nature's growing cost to business. This report addresses how health care leaders are approaching climate change initiatives across the country by examining research articles, key opinion leaders, and health care organizations on the bleeding edge of climate change reduction. In an already complex industry, health care leaders have a special responsibility to do no harm to the patients they serve and a financial responsibility to drive monetary returns for invested stakeholders. Significant cost savings, long-term risk reduction, and improved population health are a few of the benefits health care organizations around the country can gain from building a sound climate change mitigation strategy.}, }
@article {pmid31086383, year = {2019}, author = {Ramachandran, A and Palanivelu, K and Mudgal, BV and Jeganathan, A and Guganesh, S and Abinaya, B and Elangovan, A}, title = {Climate change impact on fluvial flooding in the Indian sub-basin: A case study on the Adyar sub-basin.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0216461}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0216461}, pmid = {31086383}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Flooding is one of the most disastrous global hazards, which has been occurring more frequently in recent times. It is observed that climate change is likely to increase the intensity and the frequency of floods and river basins have become more vulnerable to fluvial flooding. In this study, the impact of climate change on fluvial flooding was analyzed over the Adyar sub-basin. This study applied statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data in a CMIP5 dataset of IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). Based on the performance to simulate the observed climate, four GCMs, namely, cesm1-cam5, mpi-esm-mr, ncar-ccsm4, and bnu-esm, for RCP 4.5 were selected for projections of the future scenario. The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for the past and future scenarios were derived from the IMD-observed and GCM-projected rainfall data. Integrated flood modeling was performed with hydrologic (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (HEC-RAS) models. Finally, in order to visualize the inundation areas according to the future climate projection, flood inundation maps were prepared geospatially using the ArcGIS software. For the 100-year return period, the results predict that the peak discharge for the future climate scenario would increase by 34.3%-91.9% as compared to the present climate scenario. Similarly, the future projections show an increase in the flooded area ranging from 12.6% to 26.4% based on GCMs. This simulation helps in understanding the flood risk over the Adyar sub-basin under the changing climate and the requirement for the regulation of developmental activities over the flood-prone areas.}, }
@article {pmid31086357, year = {2019}, author = {Maibach, EW and Sarfaty, M and Mitchell, M and Gould, R}, title = {Limiting global warming to 1.5 to 2.0°C-A unique and necessary role for health professionals.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {e1002804}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002804}, pmid = {31086357}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {In an Editorial, Edward Maibach and colleagues discuss the important role of health professionals in future responses to threats of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31085651, year = {2019}, author = {Kätelhön, A and Meys, R and Deutz, S and Suh, S and Bardow, A}, title = {Climate change mitigation potential of carbon capture and utilization in the chemical industry.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1821029116}, pmid = {31085651}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Chemical production is set to become the single largest driver of global oil consumption by 2030. To reduce oil consumption and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, carbon dioxide can be captured from stacks or air and utilized as alternative carbon source for chemicals. Here, we show that carbon capture and utilization (CCU) has the technical potential to decouple chemical production from fossil resources, reducing annual GHG emissions by up to 3.5 Gt CO2-eq in 2030. Exploiting this potential, however, requires more than 18.1 PWh of low-carbon electricity, corresponding to 55% of the projected global electricity production in 2030. Most large-scale CCU technologies are found to be less efficient in reducing GHG emissions per unit low-carbon electricity when benchmarked to power-to-X efficiencies reported for other large-scale applications including electro-mobility (e-mobility) and heat pumps. Once and where these other demands are satisfied, CCU in the chemical industry could efficiently contribute to climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid31082605, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, K and Zhang, H and Han, X and Qiu, W}, title = {Sources and burial fluxes of sedimentary organic carbon in the northern Bering Sea and the northern Chukchi Sea in response to global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {679}, number = {}, pages = {97-105}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.374}, pmid = {31082605}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Arctic and subarctic seas are the major CO2 sink areas on earth. In this study, the vertical variation characteristics of organic carbon, total nitrogen and their ratio (Corg/Nt), stable isotopes δ13C and δ15N, and BIT (branched and isoprenoid tetraether) index of GDGTs (glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) in combination with 210Pb-dating were used to analyze the changes in the marine and terrestrial sources of organic carbon in the northern Bering Sea (site 1), western Beaufort Sea slope (site 2) and northern Chukchi Sea (site 3). Organic carbon burial fluxes (OCBF) in the context of global warming were also explored at sites 1 and 3. The results showed that organic matter in these sediments were a mixed input of marine and terrestrial sources, and the BIT index and δ13C of site 2 suggested that the terrestrial soil organic matter was dominant. Based on a combination of 210Pb dating and Corg, the sedimentary OCBF at site 1 was 2.29-3.65 mg cm-2 y-1, and at site 3 was 0.00-0.41 mg cm-2 y-1. The temperature anomalies and sea ice changes in the Arctic in the past 100 years were compared with the burial fluxes of the terrestrial organic carbon. At site 1, the results indicated that fast melting of seasonal sea ice led to earlier arrival of ice algae bloom, enhanced zooplankton feeding and reduced carbon burial from 1947 to 2010, and the sudden increase in carbon burial after 2010 was attributed to an increase in primary productivity and terrestrial organic matter input due to an accelerated melting of sea ice. There was a smaller change in marine organic carbon content in site 3, but OCBF increased after a pre-1965 decrease, mainly controlled by terrestrial organic matter input associated with temperature rising and sea ice melting during recent decades.}, }
@article {pmid31080300, year = {2017}, author = {Niraula, R and Meixner, T and Dominguez, F and Rodell, M and Ajami, H and Gochis, D and Castro, C}, title = {How might recharge change under projected climate change in western US?.}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {44}, number = {20}, pages = {10407-10418}, doi = {10.1002/2017GL075421}, pmid = {31080300}, issn = {0094-8276}, abstract = {Although groundwater is a major resource of water in the western US, little research has been done on the impacts of climate change on groundwater storage and recharge in the West. Here we assess the impact of projected changes in climate on groundwater recharge in the near (2021-2050) and far (2071-2100) future across the western US. Recharge is expected to decrease slightly (highly certain) in the West (-1.6%) and Southwest (-2.9%) regions in the near future and decrease considerably (highly certain) in the South region (-10.6%) in the far future. The Northern Rockies region is expected to get more recharge (highly certain) in both the near (+5.0%) and far (+9.0%) future. In general, southern portions of the western US are expected to get less recharge in the future and northern portions will get more. This study also shows that climate change interacts with land surface properties to affect the amount of recharge that occurs in the future.}, }
@article {pmid31077926, year = {2019}, author = {Farjad, B and Gupta, A and Sartipizadeh, H and Cannon, AJ}, title = {A novel approach for selecting extreme climate change scenarios for climate change impact studies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {678}, number = {}, pages = {476-485}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.218}, pmid = {31077926}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {One of the main challenges in climate change impact assessment studies is selecting climate change scenarios. By focusing on selecting projected extremes in a high dimensional space, one is confronted with the shrinkage of ensemble size while preserving the projection spread. This study proposes a novel integrated computational geometry algorithm to select extreme climate change scenarios in a high dimensional space. A set of 12 prominent climate extremes indices were used (as input to the algorithm) out of the 27 core indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization's Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The ETCCDI indices were projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the period of 2081-2100 relative to the baseline period 1986-2005. The approach enables the user to shrink the initial selected ensemble into smaller sub-ensembles while still capturing a wide range of simulated changes for selected climatological variables. The conservation of the projection spread was evaluated using a robust validation method when the spread error was calculated for each simulation run. The developed algorithm was applied to three different regions where the geographical domain was narrowed-down from sub-continental (western North America) to its regional (Alberta, Canada), and local (Athabasca River basin, Alberta, Canada) subdomains. Results revealed that selected extreme scenarios can vary from one region to another within the same geographical domain in response to the spatial variation in climatic regime.}, }
@article {pmid31075953, year = {2019}, author = {Biasi, R and Brunori, E and Ferrara, C and Salvati, L}, title = {Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Phenology and Quality Traits of Vitis vinifera L.: The Contribution of Local Knowledge.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants8050121}, pmid = {31075953}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {Landscape 4.0 - food, wellbeing and environment//Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research, DIBAF-Department of University of Tuscia and Umbria region (Rural Development Program 2014-2020 - Measure 16. Cooperation, Sub-Measure 16.2.2/ ; }, abstract = {Developing adaptation strategies in Vitis vinifera, a crop sensitive to climate change, is crucial for resilience of traditional viticultural systems, especially in climate-vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean basin. A progressive warming is demonstrated to alter the geographical distribution of grapevine, reducing land capability for typical grapes and vine productions in most Southern European districts traditionally specialized in tree crops. Grapevine growth and reproduction under climate change require a continuous monitoring to adapt agronomic practices and strategies to global change. The present study illustrates an empirical approach grounded on a set of bio-physical indicators assessing the genotype-related response to climate variation. This approach was tested in Umbria, central Italy, to verify the response of some major international and local grapevine varieties to climate variation during a relatively long time interval (1995-2015). Long-term data for ripening time and berry quality collected in the study area were correlated to representative bioclimatic indices including Winkler, Huglin, and Cool night indicators. Results of this study highlighted the increase of air temperature (reflecting the inherent growth in thermal availability for maturation) and the alteration of precipitation patterns toward more intense precipitation. Climate variability exerted distinctive impacts on grapevine phenology depending on the related genotype. Empirical findings underline the usefulness of a permanent field monitoring of the relationship between selected climate variables and grape ripening with the aim to develop adaptive viticultural practices at farm's scale.}, }
@article {pmid31075527, year = {2019}, author = {de la Hoz, CF and Ramos, E and Puente, A and Juanes, JA}, title = {Climate change induced range shifts in seaweeds distributions in Europe.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {148}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.04.012}, pmid = {31075527}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {There are evidences of how climate change is affecting seaweeds distribution and the ecosystems services they provide. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these impacts when managing marine areas. One of the most applied tools in recent years to deal with this are species distribution models, however there are still some challenges to solve, such as the inclusion of hydrodynamic predictors and the application of effective, transferable and user-oriented methodologies. Five species (Saccorhiza polyschides, Gelidium spinosum, Sargassum muticum, Pelvetia canaliculata and Cystoseira baccata) in Europe and 15 variables were considered. Nine of them were projected to the RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-term (2040-2069) and the long term (2070-2099). Algorithms for each species were applied to generate models that were assessed by comparison of probabilities and observations (area under the curve, true skill statistics, Boyce index, sensitivity, correct classification rate), niches overlap (Schoener's D, Hellinger's I), geographical similarity (interquartile range) and ecological realism. Models built demonstrated very good predictive accuracy and sensitivity, without overfitting risk. A medium overlap in the historical and RCPs environmental conditions were obtained, therefore the models can be considered transferable and results accurate because only some isolated points were detected as outliers, corresponding to low probabilities. The areas of S. polyschides and G. spinosum have been identified to be dramatically reduced, meanwhile S. muticum and C. baccata were predicted to expand their range. P. canaliculata was expected to keep its sites of presence but with a decrease in its probability of occurrence. For all species it was remarkable the importance of hydrodynamic variables and parameters representing extreme conditions. Spatially predictions of the potential species and areas at risk are decisive for defining management strategies and resource allocation. The performance and usefulness of the approach applied in this study have been demonstrated for algae with different ecological requirements (from upper littoral to subtidal) and distributional patterns (native and invasive), therefore results can be used by marine planners with different goals: marine protected areas designation, monitoring efforts guiding, invasions risk assessment or aquaculture facilities zonation.}, }
@article {pmid31074105, year = {2019}, author = {Price, SJ and Leung, WTM and Owen, CJ and Puschendorf, R and Sergeant, C and Cunningham, AA and Balloux, F and Garner, TWJ and Nichols, RA}, title = {Effects of historic and projected climate change on the range and impacts of an emerging wildlife disease.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14651}, pmid = {31074105}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NE/M000338/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; NE/M000591/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; NE/M00080X/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {The global trend of increasing environmental temperatures is often predicted to result in more severe disease epidemics. However, unambiguous evidence that temperature is a driver of epidemics is largely lacking, because it is demanding to demonstrate its role among the complex interactions between hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. Here, we apply a three-pronged approach to understand the effects of temperature on ranavirus epidemics in UK common frogs, combining in vitro, in vivo, and field studies. Each approach suggests that higher temperatures drive increasing severity of epidemics. In wild populations, ranavirosis incidents were more frequent and more severe at higher temperatures, and their frequency increased through a period of historic warming in the 1990s. Laboratory experiments using cell culture and whole animal models showed that higher temperature increased ranavirus propagation, disease incidence, and mortality rate. These results, combined with climate projections, predict severe ranavirosis outbreaks will occur over wider areas and an extended season, possibly affecting larval recruitment. Since ranaviruses affect a variety of ectothermic hosts (amphibians, reptiles, and fish), wider ecological damage could occur. Our three complementary lines of evidence present a clear case for direct environmental modulation of these epidemics and suggest management options to protect species from disease.}, }
@article {pmid31073131, year = {2019}, author = {Riris, P and Arroyo-Kalin, M}, title = {Widespread population decline in South America correlates with mid-Holocene climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {6850}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-43086-w}, pmid = {31073131}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {PF2\180065//British Academy/ ; }, abstract = {Quantifying the impacts of climate change on prehistoric demography is crucial for understanding the adaptive pathways taken by human populations. Archaeologists across South America have pointed to patterns of regional abandonment during the Middle Holocene (8200 to 4200 cal BP) as evidence of sensitivity to shifts in hydroclimate over this period. We develop a unified approach to investigate demography and climate in South America and aim to clarify the extent to which evidence of local anthropic responses can be generalised to large-scale trends. We achieve this by integrating archaeological radiocarbon data and palaeoclimatic time series to show that population decline occurred coeval with the transition to the initial mid-Holocene across South America. Through the analysis of radiocarbon dates with Monte Carlo methods, we find multiple, sustained phases of downturn associated to periods of high climatic variability. A likely driver of the duration and severity of demographic turnover is the frequency of exceptional climatic events, rather than the absolute magnitude of change. Unpredictable levels of tropical precipitation had sustained negative impacts on pre-Columbian populations lasting until at least 6000 cal BP, after which recovery is evident. Our results support the inference that a demographic regime shift in the second half of the Middle Holocene were coeval with cultural practices surrounding Neotropical plant management and early cultivation, possibly acting as buffers when the wild resource base was in flux.}, }
@article {pmid31071928, year = {2019}, author = {Chang, HP and Ma, CC and Chen, HS}, title = {Climate Change and Consumer's Attitude toward Insect Food.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091606}, pmid = {31071928}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Given the influence of rising environmental awareness, food systems and security are receiving increasing international attention. Previous studies have discussed the acceptance of insect foods but have been primarily conducted in a European context. Hence, their results cannot be applied to Taiwanese consumers. Regarding this, our study is centered on the theory of planned behavior and considers environmental concern and food neophobia to discuss the effects of consumer attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control on the purchase intention toward insect food. We used purposive sampling to survey questionnaire answers face-to-face in Taichung city, Taiwan. We distributed 408 surveys of which 77.45% were used in this study. The results revealed that consumer attitudes, perceived behavioral control, and food neophobia significantly influence purchase intention, whereas subjective norms and environmental concern did not demonstrate significant relationships with purchase intention. According to these results, we suggest that businesses emphasize consumers' product experience or reduce levels of food neophobia to increase consumer interest in insect foods and improve the acceptability of such foods, thereby increasing purchase intention.}, }
@article {pmid31070715, year = {2019}, author = {Chan, EYY and Ho, JY and Hung, HHY and Liu, S and Lam, HCY}, title = {Health impact of climate change in cities of middle-income countries: the case of China.}, journal = {British medical bulletin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/bmb/ldz011}, pmid = {31070715}, issn = {1471-8391}, abstract = {Background: This review examines the human health impact of climate change in China. Through reviewing available research findings under four major climate change phenomena, namely extreme temperature, altered rainfall pattern, rise of sea level and extreme weather events, relevant implications for other middle-income population with similar contexts will be synthesized.<br><br>Sources of data: Sources of data included bilingual peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2018 in PubMed, Google Scholar and China Academic Journals Full-text Database.<br><br>Areas of agreement: The impact of temperature on mortality outcomes was the most extensively studied, with the strongest cause-specific mortality risks between temperature and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. The geographical focuses of the studies indicated variations in health risks and impacts of different climate change phenomena across the country.<br><br>Areas of controversy: While rainfall-related studies predominantly focus on its impact on infectious and vector-borne diseases, consistent associations were not often found.<br><br>Growing points: Mental health outcomes of climate change had been gaining increasing attention, particularly in the context of extreme weather events. The number of projection studies on the long-term impact had been growing.<br><br>Areas timely for developing research: The lack of studies on the health implications of rising sea levels and on comorbidity and injury outcomes warrants immediate attention. Evidence is needed to understand health impacts on vulnerable populations living in growing urbanized cities and urban enclaves, in particular migrant workers. Location-specific climate-health outcome thresholds (such as temperature-mortality threshold) will be needed to support evidence-based clinical management plans and health impact mitigation strategies to protect vulnerable communities.}, }
@article {pmid31070165, year = {2019}, author = {Dhiman, RC and Singh, P and Yadav, Y and Saraswat, S and Kumar, G and Singh, RK and Ojha, VP and Joshi, BC and Singh, P}, title = {Preparedness for malaria elimination in the wake of climate change in the State of Uttarakhand (India).}, journal = {Journal of vector borne diseases}, volume = {56}, number = {1}, pages = {46-52}, doi = {10.4103/0972-9062.257774}, pmid = {31070165}, issn = {0972-9062}, abstract = {Background &amp; objectives: Climate change is an emerging issue particularly in the context of vector-borne diseases. A study was undertaken in Nainital and Almora districts of Uttarakhand to provide evidences of changing climatic conditions, abundance of vectors, and knocking of malaria in hilly areas.<br><br>Material and methods: Longitudinal data on temperature and relative humidity were procured from Tussar Silk Centre, Bhimtal, India as well as generated using HOBO device. Monthly density of malaria vectors, their positivity for sporozoite proteins of malaria parasite and fever surveys were conducted as per the standard procedures from 2010 to 2013. Epidemiological data were procured from the State Programme Officer of Uttarakhand state.<br><br>Results: It was found that the temperature has increased since 1990 resulting in extension in windows of malaria transmission, temporal distribution as well as man hour density of Anopheles culicifacies and An. fluviatilis in hilly districts of Uttarakhand state. Both the vectors were found in high density up to a maximum man hour density of 110 (An. culicifacies) and 69 (An. fluviatilis) as compared to 32 and 33, respectively during 1998. The field collected vector species were also found positive for sporozoite proteins of malaria parasites in the month of October and November. Evidence of occurrence of malaria cases was also found in areas hitherto free from malaria.<br><br>The findings reveal that Himalayan region needs attention to strengthen surveillance for malaria to identify emerging new foci of malaria transmission in view of climate change. Health education to communities about preventive measures to contain breeding of vectors and seeking timely treatment should be imparted so as to achieve the goal of malaria elimination in category-1 in the first instance.}, }
@article {pmid31069721, year = {2019}, author = {Özelsel, TJ and Sondekoppam, RV and Buro, K}, title = {The future is now-it's time to rethink the application of the Global Warming Potential to anesthesia.}, journal = {Canadian journal of anaesthesia = Journal canadien d'anesthesie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s12630-019-01385-w}, pmid = {31069721}, issn = {1496-8975}, }
@article {pmid31068226, year = {2019}, author = {González-Rete, B and Salazar-Schettino, PM and Bucio-Torres, MI and Córdoba-Aguilar, A and Cabrera-Bravo, M}, title = {Activity of the prophenoloxidase system and survival of triatomines infected with different Trypanosoma cruzi strains under different temperatures: understanding Chagas disease in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {219}, doi = {10.1186/s13071-019-3477-9}, pmid = {31068226}, issn = {1756-3305}, support = {IN216118//Programa de Apoyo a Proyectos de Investigación e Innovación Tecnológica (PAPIIT)/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Little is known about how human disease vectors will modify their life history patterns and survival capacity as a result of climate change. One case is that of Chagas disease, which has triatomine bugs and Trypanosoma cruzi as vectors and parasite, respectively. This work aimed to determine: (i) the activity of the prophenoloxidase system (prophenoloxidase and phenoloxidase activity, two indicators of immune ability) in three intestine regions (anterior midgut, posterior midgutand rectum) of the triatomine bug Meccus pallidipennis under three temperature conditions (20 °C, 30 °C and 34 °C) against two T. cruzi strains [ITRI/MX/14/CHIL (Chilpancingo) and ITRI/MX/12/MOR (Morelos)], and (ii) whether vector survival varies under these three temperatures after infection by these T. cruzi strains.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results indicate that prophenoloxidase activity was lower at higher temperatures, that the level of prophenoloxidase activity elicited by each strain was different (higher in Chilpancingo than in Morelos strains), and that prophenoloxidase activity was more intense in the anterior midgut than in the posterior midgut or rectum. Survival rates were lower in insects maintained at higher temperatures and infected by Chilpancingo strains.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that climate change could lead to lower prophenoloxidase activity and survival rates in triatomines when infected with different T. cruzi strains, which could reduce the vector capacity of M. pallidipennis.}, }
@article {pmid31067153, year = {2019}, author = {Gibson, K and Haslam, N and Kaplan, I}, title = {Distressing encounters in the context of climate change: Idioms of distress, determinants, and responses to distress in Tuvalu.}, journal = {Transcultural psychiatry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1363461519847057}, doi = {10.1177/1363461519847057}, pmid = {31067153}, issn = {1461-7471}, abstract = {Across the globe there is a critical need for culturally informed and locally valid approaches to mental health assessment and intervention, particularly among disadvantaged and marginalized populations. To be optimally effective, such approaches must be informed by a sound understanding of locally relevant idioms of distress and its determinants, including those caused or exacerbated by global power disparities and structural inequities. Climate change, arising due to anthropogenic sources located predominantly in industrialized nations, is one potential determinant of distress having disproportionate adverse impacts on already marginalized populations. The present study formed part of a broader project examining the intersections of culture, climate change, and distress in the Polynesian nation of Tuvalu - a focal point of global concern over the human costs of climate change. The study explored determinants and idioms of distress and culturally prescribed responses to coping with distress. Results are based on fieldwork conducted in 2015 entailing semi-structured interviews with 16 key informants and 23 lay residents of Funafuti atoll, recruited using maximal variation purposive sampling. Findings are examined in consideration of the unfolding impacts of climate change and the threat it portends for the future, both of which were identified as salient determinants of distress, in keeping with theorized relationships between climate change and mental health. The study underscores the necessity of attending to the relationships between global forces, local cultures, and individual experiences of distress, as efforts to provide access to culturally informed social and mental health services expand globally.}, }
@article {pmid31066653, year = {2019}, author = {Kipp, A and Cunsolo, A and Gillis, D and Sawatzky, A and Harper, SL}, title = {The need for community-led, integrated and innovative monitoring programmes when responding to the health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {78}, number = {2}, pages = {1517581}, doi = {10.1080/22423982.2018.1517581}, pmid = {31066653}, issn = {2242-3982}, abstract = {In Northern Canada, climate change has led to many acute and interrelated health and environmental impacts experienced among Inuit populations. Community-based monitoring, in which community members participate in monitoring initiatives using various forms of technology, is a key strategy increasingly used to detect, monitor and respond to climate change impacts. To better understand the landscape of existing environmental and health monitoring programmes mobilising different technologies and operating in the North we conducted a review that used environmental scan methodologies to explore and contextualise these programmes. We consulted with academic researchers with experience in community-led monitoring, conducted systematic searches of grey and peer-reviewed literature, and conducted a secondary search for environment-health mobile-phone applications. Following specific criteria, we identified 18 monitoring programmes using information and communication technologies in the North, and three global monitoring mobile-phone applications, which cumulatively monitored 74 environment and health indicators. Several themes emerged, including the need for: (1) community leadership, (2) indicators of environment and/or human health and (3) innovative technology. This synthesis supports the development of community-led, environment-health monitoring programmes that use innovative technology to monitor and share information related to the health implications of climate change in and around Indigenous communities throughout the Circumpolar North.}, }
@article {pmid31064134, year = {2019}, author = {Hayes, K and Berry, P and Ebi, KL}, title = {Factors Influencing the Mental Health Consequences of Climate Change in Canada.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091583}, pmid = {31064134}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate change is increasing risks to the mental health of Canadians. Impacts from a changing climate may outstrip the ability of Canadians and their health-sustaining institutions to adapt effectively and could increase poor mental health outcomes, particularly amongst those most marginalized in society. A scoping review of literature published during 2000-2017 explored risks, impacts, and vulnerabilities related to climate change and mental health. In this commentary, the authors present a new assessment of evidence from this scoping review and highlight factors that influence the capacity to adapt to the mental health consequences of a changing climate. Findings from this assessment reveal eleven key factors that influence the capacity to adapt: social capital; sense of community; government assistance; access to resources; community preparedness; intersectoral/transdisciplinary collaboration; vulnerability and adaptation assessments; communication and outreach; mental health literacy; and culturally relevant resources. Attention to these factors by Canadian decision makers can support proactive and effective management of the mental health consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31064099, year = {2019}, author = {Bartlow, AW and Manore, C and Xu, C and Kaufeld, KA and Del Valle, S and Ziemann, A and Fairchild, G and Fair, JM}, title = {Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment.}, journal = {Veterinary sciences}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/vetsci6020040}, pmid = {31064099}, issn = {2306-7381}, support = {89233218CNA000001//United States Department of Energy/ ; }, abstract = {Infectious diseases are changing due to the environment and altered interactions among hosts, reservoirs, vectors, and pathogens. This is particularly true for zoonotic diseases that infect humans, agricultural animals, and wildlife. Within the subset of zoonoses, vector-borne pathogens are changing more rapidly with climate change, and have a complex epidemiology, which may allow them to take advantage of a changing environment. Most mosquito-borne infectious diseases are transmitted by mosquitoes in three genera: Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex, and the expansion of these genera is well documented. There is an urgent need to study vector-borne diseases in response to climate change and to produce a generalizable approach capable of generating risk maps and forecasting outbreaks. Here, we provide a strategy for coupling climate and epidemiological models for zoonotic infectious diseases. We discuss the complexity and challenges of data and model fusion, baseline requirements for data, and animal and human population movement. Disease forecasting needs significant investment to build the infrastructure necessary to collect data about the environment, vectors, and hosts at all spatial and temporal resolutions. These investments can contribute to building a modeling community around the globe to support public health officials so as to reduce disease burden through forecasts with quantified uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid31063502, year = {2019}, author = {Kosaka, T and Nakajima, Y and Ishii, A and Yamashita, M and Yoshida, S and Murata, M and Kato, K and Shiromaru, Y and Kato, S and Kanasaki, Y and Yoshikawa, H and Matsutani, M and Thanonkeo, P and Yamada, M}, title = {Capacity for survival in global warming: Adaptation of mesophiles to the temperature upper limit.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0215614}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0215614}, pmid = {31063502}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommends keeping the increase in temperature to less than a two-degree increase by the end of the century, but the direct impact of global warming on ecosystems including microbes has not been investigated. Here we performed thermal adaptation of two species and three strains of mesophilic microbes for improvement of the survival upper limit of temperature, and the improvement was evaluated by a newly developed method. To understand the limitation and variation of thermal adaptation, experiments with mutators and by multiple cultures were performed. The results of experiments including genome sequencing and analysis of the characteristics of mutants suggest that these microbes bear a genomic potential to endure a 2-3°C rise in temperature but possess a limited variation of strategies for thermal adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31062666, year = {2019}, author = {Cauchi, JP and Correa-Velez, I and Bambrick, H}, title = {Climate change, food security and health in Kiribati: a narrative review of the literature.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1603683}, doi = {10.1080/16549716.2019.1603683}, pmid = {31062666}, issn = {1654-9880}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is recognised as having a 'multiplier effect' on food insecurity and adverse health experiences of communities in the Pacific region. Islands are especially at risk due to their limited land availability, population pressures and, in the case of atolls, their low-lying topography making them vulnerable to sea level rise.<br><br>AIM: This review examines the literature describing the relationship between climate change, food security and health in Kiribati.<br><br>METHOD: A narrative review was conducted, looking at both peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed literature available online from 1 January 2008 to 14 August 2018, the search date. Sources from three databases of peer-reviewed literature, Google and additional sources from reference lists were included in the review.<br><br>RESULTS: Thirty-seven items were included in this review. These show climate change is having a noticeable impact on food security and health in Kiribati. Four themes were identified from the literature that provide different perspectives to the problem outlined.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change is a pressing concern for the government of Kiribati and communities alike, and yet the problem is worsening, not improving. Further research is required to look at effective policies and cultural perspectives to address this problem.}, }
@article {pmid31061690, year = {2019}, author = {Mashizha, TM}, title = {Adapting to climate change: Reflections of peasant farmers in Mashonaland West Province of Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {571}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.571}, pmid = {31061690}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is projected to have negative impacts on agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa and this is likely to continue for decades, unless adaptation measures are implemented. The changing climate is a global challenge to sustainable livelihoods and economic development. Peasant farmers in Zimbabwe depend entirely on rain-fed agriculture, a situation that makes agriculture and rural livelihoods vulnerable to climate change. This paper discusses the findings of the study carried out in the Zvimba District amongst peasant farmers on their knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies. Semi-structured interviews, observations and document analysis were used as methodologies for data collection for the study. Purposeful sampling technique was applied to 40 peasant farmers. Qualitative data from interviews and focus group discussion were analysed using context analysis. Households acknowledged that rainfall amount has decreased over the last 30 years. Such changes have reduced agricultural productivity, and in response, communities have developed multiple adaptation strategies such as harnessing social capital, crop and livelihood diversification, engaging in small businesses and water harvesting for livestock keeping. The study concludes that there is a need to recognise the validity of indigenous knowledge and an inventory should be created for future use. The paper notes that diversification of adaptive strategies is vital for sustainable livelihood in a changing climate.<br><br>Keywords: climate change; adaptation; Zimbabwe; livelihood diversification.}, }
@article {pmid31061126, year = {2019}, author = {Razgour, O and Forester, B and Taggart, JB and Bekaert, M and Juste, J and Ibáñez, C and Puechmaille, SJ and Novella-Fernandez, R and Alberdi, A and Manel, S}, title = {Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1820663116}, pmid = {31061126}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species' future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population's adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.}, }
@article {pmid31058749, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {&quot;How Can Climate Change Impact the Workplace and Worker Health?&quot; Part 6: Operational Support-Related Responsibilities of Occupational and Environmental Medicine Experts to the Employer in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000001621}, pmid = {31058749}, issn = {1536-5948}, }
@article {pmid31058393, year = {2019}, author = {Wolf, KKE and Romanelli, E and Rost, B and John, U and Collins, S and Weigand, H and Hoppe, CJM}, title = {Company matters: The presence of other genotypes alters traits and intraspecific selection in an Arctic diatom under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14675}, pmid = {31058393}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Arctic phytoplankton and their response to future conditions shape one of the most rapidly changing ecosystems on the planet. We tested how much the phenotypic responses of strains from an Arctic diatom population diverge and whether the physiology and intraspecific composition of multi-strain populations differ from expectations based on single strain traits. To this end, we conducted incubation experiments with the diatom Thalassiosira hyalina under present-day and future temperature and pCO2 treatments. Six fresh isolates from the same Svalbard population were incubated as mono- and multi-strain cultures. For the first time, we were able to closely follow intraspecific selection within an artificial population using microsatellites and allele-specific quantitative PCR. Our results show not only that there is substantial variation in how strains of the same species cope with the tested environments, but also that changes in genotype composition, production rates and cellular quotas in the multi-strain cultures are not predictable from monoculture performance. Nevertheless, the physiological responses as well as strain composition of the artificial populations were highly reproducible within each environment. Interestingly, we only detected significant strain sorting in those populations exposed to the future treatment. This study illustrates that the genetic composition of populations can change on very short timescales through selection from the intraspecific standing stock, indicating the potential for rapid population level adaptation to climate change. We further show that individuals adjust their phenotype not only in response to their physico-chemical, but also to their biological surroundings. Such intraspecific interactions need to be understood in order to realistically predict ecosystem responses to global change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31057586, year = {2019}, author = {Gallego-Tévar, B and Infante-Izquierdo, MD and Figueroa, E and Nieva, FJJ and Muñoz-Rodríguez, AF and Grewell, BJ and Castillo, JM}, title = {Some Like It Hot: Maternal-Switching With Climate Change Modifies Formation of Invasive Spartina Hybrids.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {484}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00484}, pmid = {31057586}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change can induce temporary, spatial or behavioral changes in species, so that only some species can adapt to the new climatic conditions. In the case of invasive species, it is expected that they will be promoted in a context of global change, given their high tolerance to environmental factors and phenotypic plasticity. Once in the invaded range, these species can hybridize with native species thus introducing their genotype in the native biota. However, the effects that climate change will have on this process of invasion by hybridization remain unclear. We evaluated the historical establishment of the reciprocal hybrids between the native Spartina maritima and the invasive S. densiflora in the Gulf of Cadiz (SW Iberian Peninsula) and we related it to climatic changes during the period 1955-2017. Our results showed that, according to their dating based on their rate of lateral expansion rates, the establishment of S. maritima × densiflora and S. densiflora × maritima in the Gulf of Cadiz has occurred in the last two centuries and has been related to changes in air temperature and rainfall during the flowering periods of their parental species, with antagonist impacts on both hybrids. Thus, the hybrid S. densiflora × maritima has been established in years with mild ends of spring and beginning of summer when the flowering of S. maritima lengthened and its pollen production was higher, and it coincided with the beginning of the flowering period of S. densiflora. Moreover, the establishment of this hybrid was related to higher spring/summer rainfalls, probably due to the reduction in salinity in middle marshes. However, the hybrid S. maritima × densiflora, was established mainly in warmer spring/summers in which the proportion of pollen:ovule of S. maritima was reduced favoring its pollination by S. densiflora. As a consequence of the promotion of S. maritima × densiflora with climate change, the native and endangered species S. maritima would be threatened, as both taxa share the same habitat and the hybrid shows a remarkably higher competitive potential.}, }
@article {pmid31057569, year = {2019}, author = {De Ollas, C and Morillón, R and Fotopoulos, V and Puértolas, J and Ollitrault, P and Gómez-Cadenas, A and Arbona, V}, title = {Facing Climate Change: Biotechnology of Iconic Mediterranean Woody Crops.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {427}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00427}, pmid = {31057569}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The Mediterranean basin is especially sensitive to the adverse outcomes of climate change and especially to variations in rainfall patterns and the incidence of extremely high temperatures. These two concurring adverse environmental conditions will surely have a detrimental effect on crop performance and productivity that will be particularly severe on woody crops such as citrus, olive and grapevine that define the backbone of traditional Mediterranean agriculture. These woody species have been traditionally selected for traits such as improved fruit yield and quality or alteration in harvesting periods, leaving out traits related to plant field performance. This is currently a crucial aspect due to the progressive and imminent effects of global climate change. Although complete genome sequence exists for sweet orange (Citrus sinensis) and clementine (Citrus clementina), olive tree (Olea europaea) and grapevine (Vitis vinifera), the development of biotechnological tools to improve stress tolerance still relies on the study of the available genetic resources including interspecific hybrids, naturally occurring (or induced) polyploids and wild relatives under field conditions. To this respect, post-genomic era studies including transcriptomics, metabolomics and proteomics provide a wide and unbiased view of plant physiology and biochemistry under adverse environmental conditions that, along with high-throughput phenotyping, could contribute to the characterization of plant genotypes exhibiting physiological and/or genetic traits that are correlated to abiotic stress tolerance. The ultimate goal of precision agriculture is to improve crop productivity, in terms of yield and quality, making a sustainable use of land and water resources under adverse environmental conditions using all available biotechnological tools and high-throughput phenotyping. This review focuses on the current state-of-the-art of biotechnological tools such as high throughput -omics and phenotyping on grapevine, citrus and olive and their contribution to plant breeding programs.}, }
@article {pmid31056056, year = {2019}, author = {Bebber, DP}, title = {Climate change effects on Black Sigatoka disease of banana.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1775}, pages = {20180269}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0269}, pmid = {31056056}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Climate change has significantly altered species distributions in the wild and has the potential to affect the interactions between pests and diseases and their human, animal and plant hosts. While several studies have projected changes in disease distributions in the future, responses to historical climate change are poorly understood. Such analyses are required to dissect the relative contributions of climate change, host availability and dispersal to the emergence of pests and diseases. Here, we model the influence of climate change on the most damaging disease of a major tropical food plant, Black Sigatoka disease of banana. Black Sigatoka emerged from Asia in the late twentieth Century and has recently completed its invasion of Latin American and Caribbean banana-growing areas. We parametrize an infection model with published experimental data and drive the model with hourly microclimate data from a global climate reanalysis dataset. We define infection risk as the sum of the number of modelled hourly spore cohorts that infect a leaf over a time interval. The model shows that infection risk has increased by a median of 44.2% across banana-growing areas of Latin America and the Caribbean since the 1960s, due to increasing canopy wetness and improving temperature conditions for the pathogen. Thus, while increasing banana production and global trade have probably facilitated Black Sigatoka establishment and spread, climate change has made the region increasingly conducive for plant infection. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.}, }
@article {pmid31052196, year = {2019}, author = {Gao, D and Xie, M and Chen, X and Wang, T and Zhan, C and Ren, J and Liu, Q}, title = {Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Surface Ozone during Summer in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091528}, pmid = {31052196}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Future climate change can impact ozone concentrations by changing regional meteorological factors related to ozone (O3) pollution. To better understand the variations of meteorological factors and their effects on O3 formation processes under future climate conditions, we model the present and the future meteorology and air quality in summer over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry module (WRF/Chem), which is driven by the outputs of Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). The simulations predict that solar radiation, 2-m air temperature, and wind speed increase in the daytime over most of the YRD region. Absolute humidity and precipitation increase in the north and decrease in the south, while the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) has an opposite change pattern displaying a decrease in the north and an increase in the south. The southerly wind will be strengthened in the daytime. At night, the change patterns of the meteorological factors are similar to the daytime but with small variations. Meanwhile, O3 and its precursors all increase in the north and decrease in the south. The increases of NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOC), and CO are related with the decreases of PBLH and the input effect of stronger southerly wind, while the decreases are attributed to the output effect of the stronger southerly wind. During the daytime, the increase of surface O3 in the north is dominated by the chemical processes related with the increases of solar radiation, air temperature, and O3 precursors. The decrease of surface O3 in the south is mainly caused by the transport process changing with the strengthened southerly wind. At night, the surface O3 changing the amplitude is less than the daytime. The less O3 variations at night can be attributed to an O3 titration reaction with NO, the changes in NOx concentrations, and the increases of nocturnal PBLH. With the aid of H2O2/HNO3, O3 formation in the YRD region is found to be easily affected by NOx in the future. The findings can help to understand the changing trend of O3 in the YRD region and can propose reasonable pollution control policies.}, }
@article {pmid31051384, year = {2019}, author = {Duane, A and Aquilué, N and Canelles, Q and Morán-Ordoñez, A and De Cáceres, M and Brotons, L}, title = {Adapting prescribed burns to future climate change in Mediterranean landscapes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {677}, number = {}, pages = {68-83}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.348}, pmid = {31051384}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Fire regimes are shifting or are expected to do so under global change. Current fire suppression is not able to control all wildfires, and its capability to do so might be compromised under harsher climate conditions. Alternative fire management strategies may allow to counteract predicted fire trends, but we lack quantitative tools to evaluate their potential effectiveness at the landscape scale. Here, we sought to quantify changes in fire regimes induced after the implementation of different fire management strategies. We developed and applied a new version of the model MEDFIRE in Catalonia (Mediterranean region of ~32,000 km2 in NE Spain). We first projected burnt area from 2016 to 2100 resulting from climate change under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario of HadGEM-CC model and under current fire suppression levels. We then evaluated the impacts of four fire management strategies: 'Let it burn', fixed effort of prescribed burning with two different spatial allocations, and adaptive prescribed burning dynamically adjusting efforts according to recent past fires. Results predicted the emergence of novel climates associated with similar barometric configurations to current conditions but with higher temperatures (i.e. hot wind events). These novel climates led to an increase in burnt area, which was partially counteracted by negative fire-vegetation feedbacks. All prescribed burning scenarios decreased the amount of high-intensity fires and extreme fire events. The 'Let it burn' strategy, although less costly, was not able to reduce the extent of high-intensity fires. The adaptive prescribed burning scenario resulted in the most cost-efficient strategy. Our results provide quantitative evidence of fire management effectiveness, and bring to light key insights that could guide the design of fire policies fit for future novel climate conditions. We propose adaptive landscape management focused on the reduction of fire negative impacts rather than on the elimination of this disturbance from the system.}, }
@article {pmid31051367, year = {2019}, author = {Luo, M and Liu, T and Meng, F and Duan, Y and Bao, A and Xing, W and Feng, X and De Maeyer, P and Frankl, A}, title = {Identifying climate change impacts on water resources in Xinjiang, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {676}, number = {}, pages = {613-626}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.297}, pmid = {31051367}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water resources have an important role in maintaining ecological fuctions and sustaining social and economic development. This is especially true in arid and semi-arid areas, where climate change has a large impact on water resources, such as in Xinjiang, China. Using a combination of precipitation and temperature bias correction methods, we analyzed projected changes in different hydrological components in nine high-alpine catchments distributed in Xinjiang using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The impacts of elevation, area and aspect of the catchments were analyzed. The results suggested an overall warming and wetting trend for all nine catchments in the near future, with the exception of summer precipitation decreasing in some catchments. The total runoff discharge, evapotranspiration and snow/ice melting will generally increase. Warming temperature plays a more important role in the changes of each hydrological component than increasing precipitation. However, northern Xinjiang was more sensitive to predicted precipitation changes than southern Xinjiang. These results also indicate that the overall increases in water resources are not sustainable, and the impacts of climate change are associated with the elevation, area and slope aspect of the catchments.}, }
@article {pmid31050681, year = {2019}, author = {Bi, K and Linderoth, T and Singhal, S and Vanderpool, D and Patton, JL and Nielsen, R and Moritz, C and Good, JM}, title = {Temporal genomic contrasts reveal rapid evolutionary responses in an alpine mammal during recent climate change.}, journal = {PLoS genetics}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e1008119}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pgen.1008119}, pmid = {31050681}, issn = {1553-7404}, abstract = {Many species have experienced dramatic changes in their abundance and distribution during recent climate change, but it is often unclear whether such ecological responses are accompanied by evolutionary change. We used targeted exon sequencing of 294 museum specimens (160 historic, 134 modern) to generate independent temporal genomic contrasts spanning a century of climate change (1911-2012) for two co-distributed chipmunk species: an endemic alpine specialist (Tamias alpinus) undergoing severe range contraction and a stable mid-elevation species (T. speciosus). Using a novel analytical approach, we reconstructed the demographic histories of these populations and tested for evidence of recent positive directional selection. Only the retracting species showed substantial population genetic fragmentation through time and this was coupled with positive selection and substantial shifts in allele frequencies at a gene, Alox15, involved in regulation of inflammation and response to hypoxia. However, these rapid population and gene-level responses were not detected in an analogous temporal contrast from another area where T. alpinus has also undergone severe range contraction. Collectively, these results highlight that evolutionary responses may be variable and context dependent across populations, even when they show seemingly synchronous ecological shifts. Our results demonstrate that temporal genomic contrasts can be used to detect very recent evolutionary responses within and among contemporary populations, even in the face of complex demographic changes. Given the wealth of specimens archived in natural history museums, comparative analyses of temporal population genomic data have the potential to improve our understanding of recent and ongoing evolutionary responses to rapidly changing environments.}, }
@article {pmid31050235, year = {2019}, author = {Mathis, M and Briand, S}, title = {[Climate change, epidemics and the importance of travel and tropical medicine].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {15}, number = {649}, pages = {898-900}, pmid = {31050235}, issn = {1660-9379}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the factors explaining the increased occurrence of epidemics, their geographical spread as well as their increased severity and broader impact. Climate change makes the environment more favourable for pathogens and their proliferation, as well as for vectors of infectious diseases (such as mosquitoes). Furthermore, the globalisation and intensified travel and trade require international cooperation for epidemic response and training of health professional on emerging infectious risks.}, }
@article {pmid31049162, year = {2019}, author = {Nhamo, G and Muchuru, S}, title = {Climate adaptation in the public health sector in Africa: Evidence from United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Communications.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {644}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.644}, pmid = {31049162}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change has potential to affect human health in various ways. Extreme temperatures and cold both result in deaths, while the changing habitats favouring the breeding of vectors could result in the spread of diseases such as malaria, cholera and typhus. This article reviews climate change adaptation measures in the African public health sector. The evidence is drawn from National Communications of 21 countries as submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This article combines the literature review and grounded theory approaches with data obtained from the UNFCCC National Communications. Among key adaptation measures emerging from the work are weather-based forecasting and early warning systems, public education and awareness, putting in place appropriate policies, surveillance, research and monitoring as well as improving public health infrastructure and technology. The study recommends that African nations should commit to address health impacts of climate change through the implementation of appropriate adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid31049161, year = {2019}, author = {Zwane, EM}, title = {Impact of climate change on primary agriculture, water sources and food security in Western Cape, South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {562}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.562}, pmid = {31049161}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is undoubtedly one of the biggest crises that humanity is facing today. There is a robust scientific consensus that human-induced climate change is occurring not only in the Western Cape but around the world. The objective of this research was to assess the impact of climate change on primary agriculture and food security. The paper is based on a literature review. A variety of literature reviews, for example, 11 government reports and 21 journal articles including experience outside Western Cape, were consulted to enrich the local experience regarding the impact of climate change on agriculture. The results indicated that many dams had low water levels (40%) during 2016/2017, which reduced crop yields including grapes. Droughts, which affected both smallholder and commercial farmers, are now a common phenomenon. Livestock production has declined over time, with small stock, the beef and dairy industry being the most affected. The paper concludes by highlighting climate adaptation and mitigation interventions and strategies for both crops and livestock production in the Western Cape. The major recommendations included scaling up on the use of organic matter to avoid burning and creating gas emissions to the atmosphere, the effective use of livestock manure and the use of appropriate and adaptable seed varieties, managing the manure of the livestock to assist in mulching to reduce water loss through evaporation and using adaptable seeds. Keywords: climate change; impact; mitigation; primary agriculture; adaptation; drought.}, }
@article {pmid31041921, year = {2019}, author = {Yadollahie, M}, title = {The Flood in Iran: A Consequence of the Global Warming?.}, journal = {The international journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {54-56}, doi = {10.15171/ijoem.2019.1681}, pmid = {31041921}, issn = {2008-6814}, }
@article {pmid31040405, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {Hurricane Maria's catastrophic rains are linked to global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {569}, number = {7754}, pages = {8}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-01280-w}, pmid = {31040405}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31035620, year = {2019}, author = {Li, Y and Qin, Y}, title = {The Response of Net Primary Production to Climate Change: A Case Study in the 400 mm Annual Precipitation Fluctuation Zone in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091497}, pmid = {31035620}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {41671536//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41501588//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {The regions in China that intersect the 400 mm annual precipitation line are especially ecologically sensitive and extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic activities. However, in the context of climate change, the response of vegetation Net Primary Production (NPP) in this region has not been scientifically studied in depth. NPP suffers from the comprehensive effect of multiple climatic factors, and how to eliminate the effect of interfering variables in the correlation analysis of NPP and target variables (temperature or precipitation) is the major challenge in the study of NPP influencing factors. The correlation coefficient between NPP and target variable was calculated by ignoring other variables that also had a large impact on NPP. This increased the uncertainty of research results. Therefore, in this study, the second-order partial correlation analysis method was used to analyze the correlation between NPP and target variables by controlling other variables. This can effectively decrease the uncertainty of analysis results. In this paper, the univariate linear regression, coefficient of variation, and Hurst index estimation were used to study the spatial and temporal variations in NPP and analyze whether the NPP seasonal and annual variability will persist into the future. The results show the following: (i) The spatial distribution of NPP correlated with precipitation and had a gradually decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. From 2000 to 2015, the NPP in the study area had a general upward trend, with a small variation in its range. (ii) Areas with negative partial correlation coefficients between NPP and precipitation are consistent with the areas with more abundant water resources. The partial correlation coefficient between the NPP and the Land Surface Temperature (LST) was positive for 52.64% of the total study area. Finally, the prediction of the persistence of NPP variation into the future showed significant differences on varying time scales. On an annual scale, NPP was predicted to persist for 46% of the study area. On a seasonal scale, NPP in autumn was predicted to account for 49.92%, followed by spring (25.67%), summer (13.40%), and winter (6.75%).}, }
@article {pmid31035418, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, H and Liu, B and Zhou, D and Wu, Z and Wang, T}, title = {Asymmetric Soil Warming under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091504}, pmid = {31035418}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {41601052//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41471085//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41501089//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2412016KJ010//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; 2412016KJ025//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; }, abstract = {Daily surface soil temperature data from 360 weather stations in China during 1962-2011 were retrieved and analyzed. The data revealed two aspects of asymmetric soil warming. Firstly, there was asymmetry between day and night in terms of increases in soil temperature. The daily maximum surface soil temperature (S T max) and daily minimum surface soil temperature (S T min) increased at rates of 0.031 and 0.055 °C/year over the 50-year interval, respectively. As a consequence of the more rapid increases in S T min , the soil diurnal temperature range (SDTR) decreased at most stations (average rate of -0.025 °C/year), with the most profound decrease in winter (-0.08 °C/year). The solar duration (SD) was positively related to SDTR and is regarded as the key underlying cause of the decreasing SDTR. Secondly, there was asymmetry between the soil and air in the temperature increase. The differences between soil and air temperature (T D) were highest in summer (2.76 °C) and smallest in winter (1.55 °C), which decreased by 0.3 °C over the study interval, this meant agricultural practice plans based on air temperature alone may be severely limited. The difference between soil temperature and air temperature reduces at night. This would facilitate the wintering of perennials in areas near the zero-contour line.}, }
@article {pmid31032967, year = {2019}, author = {Milicevic, D and Petronijevic, R and Petrovic, Z and Djinovic Stojanovic, J and Jovanovic, J and Baltić, T and Jankovic, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on aflatoxin M1 contamination of raw milk with a special focus on climate conditions in serbia.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.9768}, pmid = {31032967}, issn = {1097-0010}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impact of climate change has been identified as an emerging issue worldwide due to potential effects that can provoke changes in the nature and occurrence of food safety hazards. Mycotoxins are a group of naturally occurring toxic substances produced by several genera of filamentous fungi, among which, primarily aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxins, trichothecenes, and zearalenone are of the greatest concern, due to their negative impact on human health, animal productivity, and international trade.<br><br>RESULT: Extreme weather conditions such as floods and droughts which have not occurred previously in Serbia may be supporting factors for contamination of crops by various species of toxigenic fungi and their related mycotoxins. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) and multivariate analyses were used as powerful tools, allowing better understanding of the range of climate factors impacting on crop contamination by mycotoxins. Among the selected environmental variables, temperature and moisture significantly influenced aflatoxin production. Recent drought and then flooding confirmed that Serbia is one of the few European countries with very high risk exposure to natural hazards, as well as that mycotoxins are one of the foodborne hazards most susceptible to climate change. Thus, climate change effects on mycotoxigenic fungi and mycotoxin contamination is now receiving scientific attention, especially from a risk analysis perspective.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This paper evaluates the available information on the influence of climate change on mycotoxin contamination, especially aflatoxin M1 (AFM1). In addition, this investigation should beneficially contribute to more accurate predictions of the regional risk from mycotoxins in future decades.}, }
@article {pmid31031955, year = {2019}, author = {Griffith, AW and Harke, MJ and DePasquale, E and Berry, DL and Gobler, CJ}, title = {The harmful algae, Cochlodinium polykrikoides and Aureococcus anophagefferens, elicit stronger transcriptomic and mortality response in larval bivalves (Argopecten irradians) than climate change stressors.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {4931-4948}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5100}, pmid = {31031955}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Global ocean change threatens marine life, yet a mechanistic understanding of how organisms are affected by specific stressors is poorly understood. Here, we identify and compare the unique and common transcriptomic responses of an organism experiencing widespread fisheries declines, Argopecten irradians (bay scallop) exposed to multiple stressors including high pCO2, elevated temperature, and two species of harmful algae, Cochlodinium (aka Margalefidinium) polykrikoides and Aureococcus anophagefferens using high-throughput sequencing (RNA-seq). After 48 hr of exposure, scallop transcriptomes revealed distinct expression profiles with larvae exposed to harmful algae (C. polykrikoides and A. anophagefferens) displaying broader responses in terms of significantly and differentially expressed (DE) transcripts (44,922 and 4,973; respectively) than larvae exposed to low pH or elevated temperature (559 and 467; respectively). Patterns of expression between larvae exposed to each harmful algal treatment were, however, strikingly different with larvae exposed to A. anophagefferens displaying large, significant declines in the expression of transcripts (n = 3,615; 87% of DE transcripts) whereas exposure to C. polykrikoides increased the abundance of transcripts, more than all other treatments combined (n = 43,668; 97% of DE transcripts). Larvae exposed to each stressor up-regulated a common set of 21 genes associated with protein synthesis, cellular metabolism, shell growth, and membrane transport. Larvae exposed to C. polykrikoides displayed large increases in antioxidant-associated transcripts, whereas acidification-exposed larvae increased abundance of transcripts associated with shell formation. After 10 days of exposure, each harmful algae caused declines in survival that were significantly greater than all other treatments. Collectively, this study reveals the common and unique transcriptional responses of bivalve larvae to stressors that promote population declines within coastal zones, providing insight into the means by which they promote mortality as well as traits possessed by bay scallops that enable potential resistance.}, }
@article {pmid31031931, year = {2019}, author = {Hyseni, C and Garrick, RC}, title = {The role of glacial-interglacial climate change in shaping the genetic structure of eastern subterranean termites in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {4621-4636}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5065}, pmid = {31031931}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The eastern subterranean termite, Reticulitermes flavipes, currently inhabits previously glaciated regions of the northeastern U.S., as well as the unglaciated southern Appalachian Mountains and surrounding areas. We hypothesized that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations have influenced the distribution of R. flavipes, and thus the evolutionary history of the species. We estimated contemporary and historical geographic distributions of R. flavipes by constructing Species Distribution Models (SDM). We also inferred the evolutionary and demographic history of the species using mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase I and II) and nuclear (endo-beta-1,4-glucanase) DNA sequence data. To do this, genetic populations were delineated using Bayesian spatial-genetic clustering, competing hypotheses about population divergence were assessed using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), and changes in population size were estimated using Bayesian skyline plots. SDMs identified areas in the north with suitable habitat during the transition from the Last Interglacial to the Last Glacial Maximum, as well as an expanding distribution from the mid-Holocene to the present. Genetic analyses identified three geographically cohesive populations, corresponding with northern, central, and southern portions of the study region. Based on ABC analyses, divergence between the Northern and Southern populations was the oldest, estimated to have occurred 64.80 thousand years ago (kya), which corresponds with the timing of available habitat in the north. The Central and Northern populations diverged in the mid-Holocene, 8.63 kya, after which the Central population continued to expand. Accordingly, phylogeographic patterns of R. flavipes in the southern Appalachians appear to have been strongly influenced by glacial-interglacial climate change.<br><br>OPEN RESEARCH BADGES: This article has been awarded Open Materials, Open Data Badges. All materials and data are publicly accessible via the Open Science Framework at https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.5hr7f31.}, }
@article {pmid31031283, year = {2019}, author = {Lee, AM}, title = {Citizen Scientists in Antarctica: FjordPhyto Approach to Understand Climate Change Affected Environments.}, journal = {Narrative inquiry in bioethics}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {21-24}, doi = {10.1353/nib.2019.0010}, pmid = {31031283}, issn = {2157-1740}, }
@article {pmid31030319, year = {2019}, author = {Nagai, S and Saitoh, TM and Yoshitake, S}, title = {Cultural ecosystem services provided by flowering of cherry trees under climate change: a case study of the relationship between the periods of flowering and festivals.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-019-01719-9}, pmid = {31030319}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {2017-F-002//Joint Usage/Research Grant from the River Basin Research Center, Gifu University/ ; }, abstract = {In Japan, cherry blossoms are an important tourism resource and provide many cultural ecosystem service benefits. Under future warming conditions, we will require adaptions such as changing the timing of flower festivals to account for changes in the flowering phenology. In this study, we evaluated the coincidence between the flowering phenology of cherry blossoms and the associated festival periods in two Japanese cities under past, recent, and future climate conditions. We examined the situation in Shinhidaka, where the flower festival period changes every year, and Takayama, where the festival period is fixed to coincide with a shrine's annual spring festival. Currently, the average dates of beginning of flowering (more than four or five flowers open in an index tree; ~BBCH60) and full bloom (equal to or more than 80% of flowers open in an index tree; after BBCH65) in Shinhidaka (day of year (DOY) 126 and 130) are later than the long national holiday of Golden Week (DOY 119 to 125). The respective dates in Takayama (DOY 106 and 111, respectively) are later than the local a festival period (DOY 104 and 105). Under a scenario of 1.0 to 2.0 °C warming, the full blooming dates in Shinhidaka will coincide with Golden Week, whereas under 1.0 to 1.5 °C warming, the full blooming dates in Takayama will coincide with the spring festival period. Thus, moderate warming may increase the value of cherry blossoms to the tourism industry. Under more than 3.5 °C warming in Shinhidaka and 2.5 °C warming in Takayama, however, cherry blossoms will have already dropped by Golden Week and the spring festival period, respectively, suggesting that greater warming may decrease the value of this tourism resource.}, }
@article {pmid31029890, year = {2019}, author = {Nasir, MA and Duc Huynh, TL and Xuan Tram, HT}, title = {Role of financial development, economic growth &amp; foreign direct investment in driving climate change: A case of emerging ASEAN.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {242}, number = {}, pages = {131-141}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.112}, pmid = {31029890}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {In the context of remarkable economic growth and financial development in the emerging economies of East Asia, this paper attempts to shed light on the ecological consequences (CO2 emission) of economic growth, foreign direct investment and financial development in the selected ASEAN-5 economies. Drawing on the data from 1982 to 2014, we employed a set of quantitative techniques for panel data analysis which entailed Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) approaches. Our findings indicate that financial and economic development, as well as FDI, have a statistically significant long-run co-integrating relationship with environmental degradation (CO2 emissions) in the under analysis economies. It showed that in ASEAN-5 countries, economic growth, financial development and FDI leads to an increase in environmental degradation. The quadratic term for economic growth showed a negative impact on environmental degradation i.e. Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Our key findings manifest and emphasise the importance of appropriate policies for more inclusive economic and financial development and sustainable foreign direct investment which does not impede on the environment.}, }
@article {pmid31029753, year = {2019}, author = {Varo, R and Rodó, X and Bassat, Q}, title = {Climate change, cyclones and cholera - Implications for travel medicine and infectious diseases.}, journal = {Travel medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tmaid.2019.04.007}, pmid = {31029753}, issn = {1873-0442}, }
@article {pmid31029138, year = {2019}, author = {Gronlund, CJ and Cameron, L and Shea, C and O'Neill, MS}, title = {Assessing the magnitude and uncertainties of the burden of selected diseases attributable to extreme heat and extreme precipitation under a climate change scenario in Michigan for the period 2041-2070.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {40}, doi = {10.1186/s12940-019-0483-5}, pmid = {31029138}, issn = {1476-069X}, support = {2UL1TR000433-06//National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences/ ; K99ES026198//National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences/ ; P30 ES017885//National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences/ ; T42 OH008455-09//National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health/ ; EH001124//National Center for Environmental Health/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Extreme heat (EH) and extreme precipitation (EP) events are expected to increase with climate change in many parts of the world. Characterizing the potential future morbidity and mortality burden of EH and EP and associated costs, as well as uncertainties in the estimates, can identify areas for public health intervention and inform adaptation strategies. We demonstrate a burden of disease and uncertainty assessment using data from Michigan, USA, and provide approaches for deriving these estimates for locations lacking certain data inputs.<br><br>METHODS: Case-crossover analysis adapted from previous Michigan-specific modeling was used to characterize the historical EH-mortality relationship by county poverty rate and age group. Historical EH-associated hospitalization and emergency room visit risks from the literature were adapted to Michigan. In the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's BenMAP software, we used a novel approach, with multiple spatially-varying exposures, to estimate all non-accidental mortality and morbidity occurring on EH days (EH days; days where maximum temperature 32.2-35 C or > 35 C) and EP days. We did so for two time periods: the &quot;historical&quot; period (1971-2000), and the &quot;projected&quot; period (2041-2070), by county.<br><br>RESULTS: The rate of all non-accidental mortality associated with EH days increased from 0.46/100,000 persons historically to 2.9/100,000 in the projected period, for 240 EH-attributable deaths annually. EH-associated ED visits increased from 12/100,000 persons to 68/100,000 persons, for 7800 EH-attributable emergency department visits. EP-associated ED visits increased minimally from 1.7 to 1.9/100,000 persons. Mortality and morbidity were highest among those aged 65+ (91% of all deaths). Projected health costs are dominated by EH-associated mortality ($280 million) and EH-associated emergency department visits ($14 million). A variety of sources contribute to a moderate-to-high degree of uncertainty around the point estimates, including uncertainty in the magnitude of climate change, population composition, baseline health rates, and exposure-response estimates.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The approach applied here showed that health burden due to climate may significantly rise for all Michigan counties by midcentury. The costs to health care and uncertainties in the estimates, given the potential for substantial attributable burden, provide additional information to guide adaptation measures for EH and EP.}, }
@article {pmid31028372, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Curbing global warming could save US$20 trillion.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {557}, number = {7706}, pages = {467-468}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05219-5}, pmid = {31028372}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31027461, year = {2019}, author = {Walter, S and Lörcher, I and Brüggemann, M}, title = {Scientific networks on Twitter: Analyzing scientists' interactions in the climate change debate.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {963662519844131}, doi = {10.1177/0963662519844131}, pmid = {31027461}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {Scientific issues requiring urgent societal actions-such as climate change-have increased the need for communication and interaction between scientists and other societal actors. Social media platforms facilitate such exchanges. This study investigates who scientists interact with on Twitter, and whether their communication differs when engaging with actors beyond the scientific community. We focus on the climate change debate on Twitter and combine network analysis with automated content analysis. The results show that scientists interact most intensively with their peers, but also communication beyond the scientific community is important. The findings suggest that scientists adjust their communication style to their audience: They use more neutral language when communicating with other scientists, and more words expressing negative emotions when communicating with journalists, civil society, and politicians. Likewise, they stress certainty more when communicating with politicians, indicating that scientists use language strategically when communicating beyond the scientific community.}, }
@article {pmid31027434, year = {2019}, author = {Levy, BS}, title = {Increasing Risks for Armed Conflict: Climate Change, Food and Water Insecurity, and Forced Displacement.}, journal = {International journal of health services : planning, administration, evaluation}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {20731419845249}, doi = {10.1177/0020731419845249}, pmid = {31027434}, issn = {1541-4469}, abstract = {The interrelated factors of climate change, decreased access to freshwater, and forced displacement are heightening the risk of armed conflict. Higher temperatures and extremes of precipitation are contributing to food and water insecurity, forced displacement, and sociopolitical tensions. Health professionals can help to address these problems through education, advocacy, and other activities that aim to mitigate and adapt to climate change and minimize the risk of armed conflict.}, }
@article {pmid31025468, year = {2019}, author = {Godde, C and Dizyee, K and Ash, A and Thornton, P and Sloat, L and Roura, E and Henderson, B and Herrero, M}, title = {Climate change and variability impacts on grazing herds: Insights from a system dynamics approach for semi-arid Australian rangelands.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14669}, pmid = {31025468}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Grazing livestock are an important source of food and income for millions of people worldwide. Changes in mean climate and increasing climate variability are affecting grasslands' carrying capacity, thus threatening the livelihood of millions of people as well as the health of grassland ecosystems. Compared with cropping systems, relatively little is known about the impact of such climatic changes on grasslands and livestock productivity and the adaptation responses available to farmers. In this study, we analysed the relationship between changes in mean precipitation, precipitation variability, farming practices and grazing cattle using a system dynamics approach for a semi-arid Australian rangeland system. We found that forage production and animal stocking rates were significantly affected by drought intensities and durations as well as by long-term climate trends. After a drought event, herd size recovery times ranged from years to decades in the absence of proactive restocking through animal purchases. Decreases in the annual precipitation means or increases in the inter-annual (year-to-year) and intra-annual (month-to-month) precipitation variability, all reduced herd sizes. The contribution of farming practices versus climate effects on herd dynamics varied depending on the herd characteristics considered. Climate contributed the most to the variance in stocking rates, followed by forage productivity levels and feeding supplementation practices (with or without urea and molasses). While intensification strategies and favourable climates increased long-term herd sizes, they also resulted in larger reductions in animal numbers during droughts and raised total enteric methane emissions. In the face of future climate trends, the grazing sector will need to increase its adaptability. Understanding which farming strategies can be beneficial, where, and when, as well as the enabling mechanisms required to implement them, will be critical for effectively improving rangelands and the livelihoods of pastoralists worldwide. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31025387, year = {2019}, author = {Inouye, DW}, title = {Effects of climate change on alpine plants and their pollinators.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14104}, pmid = {31025387}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {DEB-1354104//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Alpine environments are among the habitats most strongly affected by climate change, and consequently their unique plants and pollinators are faced with the challenge of adapting or going extinct. Changes in temperature and precipitation affect snowpack and snowmelt, resulting in changes in the growing season in this environment where plant growth and pollinator activity are constrained to the snow-free season, which can vary significantly across the landscape if there is significant topographic complexity. As in other ecosystems, the resulting changes in phenology are not uniform among species, creating the potential for altered and new interspecific interactions. New plant and animal species are arriving as lower altitude species move up with warming temperatures, introducing new competitors and generating changes in plant-pollinator interactions. Repeating historical surveys, taking advantage of museum collections, and using new technology will facilitate our understanding of how plants and pollinators are responding to the changing alpine environment.}, }
@article {pmid31024763, year = {2019}, author = {Li, J and Wu, J and Peng, K and Fan, G and Yu, H and Wang, W and He, Y}, title = {Simulating the effects of climate change across the geographical distribution of two medicinal plants in the genus Nardostachys.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6730}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.6730}, pmid = {31024763}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background: The medicinal plants of Radix et Rhizoma Nardostachyos include Nardostachys jatamansi and N. chinensis. Traditionally, the two plants have been used to treat many diseases. Because of their special aroma, they are also commonly used in the food and cosmetics industry. Recently, N. jatamansi and N. chinensis have been overexploited due to their economic importance, resulting in a sharp decline in their wild resources. Predicting potential distributions of the genus Nardostachys under different climate scenarios and understanding its preferred habitat are of great significance for their conservation, artificial cultivation, and assessment of their value.<br><br>Methods: The Maxent model was used to predict the potential geographical distributions of the genus Nardostachys under current and future climatic conditions based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s. These data were used to study the effects of climate variables.<br><br>Results: The results show that the potential distribution of the two species will increase, thus more suitable habitats will be present in China. The suitable habitat for N. chinensis presents a relatively stable growth compared to N. jatamansi. In addition, precipitation plays a crucial role in modeling the effects of climate change on the genus Nardostachys. This study provides theoretical guidance for the cultivation of N. chinensis.}, }
@article {pmid31023518, year = {2019}, author = {Bouvet, L and Chassard, D}, title = {Fighting global warming: it's time to reduce waste!.}, journal = {International journal of obstetric anesthesia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijoa.2019.03.001}, pmid = {31023518}, issn = {1532-3374}, }
@article {pmid31022612, year = {2019}, author = {Tong, S and Ebi, K}, title = {Preventing and mitigating health risks of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {174}, number = {}, pages = {9-13}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.04.012}, pmid = {31022612}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Global environmental changes, driven by the consequences of human activities and population growth, are altering our planet in ways that pose current threats to human health, with the magnitude of these threats projected to increase over coming decades if additional, proactive actions are not taken. Global changes, unprecedented in their geospatial and temporal scales, include climate change, marine pollution, ozone layer depletion, soil degradation, and urbanization. Climate change is the best studied. The health risks of a changing climate will become increasingly urgent as climate change affects the quantity and quality of food and water, increases air pollution, alters the distribution of vectors/pathogens and disease transmission dynamics, and reduces eco-physical buffering against extreme weather and climate events. Health systems urgently need to be improved to effectively address these emerging challenges. This paper provides an overview of the health consequences of climate change, and discusses how health risks can be minimized and avoided via mitigation and adaptation pathways.}, }
@article {pmid31022212, year = {2019}, author = {Legault, S and Houle, D and Plouffe, A and Ameztegui, A and Kuehn, D and Chase, L and Blondlot, A and Perkins, TD}, title = {Perceptions of U.S. and Canadian maple syrup producers toward climate change, its impacts, and potential adaptation measures.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0215511}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0215511}, pmid = {31022212}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The production of maple syrup is an important cultural and economic activity directly related to the climate of northeastern North America. As a result, there are signs that climate change could have negative impacts on maple syrup production in the next decades, particularly for regions located at the southern margins of the sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) range. The purpose of this survey study is to present the beliefs and opinions of maple syrup producers of Canada (N = 241) and the U.S. (N = 113) on climate change in general, its impacts on sugar maple health and maple syrup production, and potential adaptation measures. Using conditional inference classification trees, we examined how the socio-economic profile of respondents and the geographic location and size of respondents' sugar bushes shaped the responses of survey participants. While a majority (75%) of respondents are confident that the average temperature on Earth is increasing, less than half (46%) believe that climate change will have negative impacts on maple syrup yield in the next 30 years. Political view was a significant predictor of these results, with respondents at the right right and center-right of the political spectrum being less likely to believe in climate change and less likely to anticipate negative effects of climate change on maple syrup production. In addition, 77% of the participants indicated an interest in adopting adaptation strategies if those could increase maple syrup production. This interest was greater for respondents using vacuum tubing for sap collection than other collection methods. However, for many respondents (particularly in Canada), lack of information was identified as a constraint limiting adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31021067, year = {2019}, author = {Malena-Chan, R}, title = {A narrative model for exploring climate change engagement among young community leaders.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {157-166}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.07}, pmid = {31021067}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Decades of widespread knowledge about climate change have not translated into adequate action to address impacts on population health and health equity in Canada. Research has shown that context-based perceptions and interpretations mediate engagement. Exploring climate change engagement involves inquiry into contextual experience.<br><br>METHODS: This qualitative study has employed narrative methodology to interpret the meaning of climate change among community leaders in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, age 20-40 (n = 10). Climate change narratives were explored both structurally and thematically.<br><br>RESULTS: A model was developed to organize results and to describe concepts of fidelity and dissonance within participant narratives. Findings suggested that knowledge of climate change and personal motivation to act did not preclude narrative dissonance, which served as a barrier to a meaningful personal response. Dissonance can result where internal and external barriers mediate mobilization at moments in the plot: (1) moving from knowledge of the challenge to a sense of agency about it; (2) from agency to a sense of responsibility to choose to address it; (3) from responsibility to a sense of capacity to produce desirable outcomes despite contextual challenges; and (4) from capacity to a moral sense of activation in context. Without narrative fidelity, meaningful mobilization can be hindered.<br><br>CONCLUSION: A narrative model is useful for exploring climate change engagement and highlights opportunities for a population health approach to address the conditions that hinder meaningful mobilization. By framing climate change narratives with emotional and moral logic, population health framing could help young leaders overcome internal and external barriers to engagement.}, }
@article {pmid31021066, year = {2019}, author = {MacIntyre, E and Khanna, S and Darychuk, A and Copes, R and Schwartz, B}, title = {Evidence synthesis - Evaluating risk communication during extreme weather and climate change: a scoping review.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {142-156}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.06}, pmid = {31021066}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Communicating risk to the public continues to be a challenge for public health practitioners working in the area of climate change. We conducted a scoping literature review on the evaluation of risk communication for extreme weather and climate change to inform local public health messaging, consistent with requirements under the Ontario Public Health Standards (OPHS), which were updated in 2018 to include effective communication regarding climate change and extreme weather.<br><br>METHODS: Search strategies were developed by library information specialists and used to retrieve peer-reviewed academic and grey literature from bibliographic databases (Medline, Embase, Scopus and CINAHL) and Google country specific searches, respectively. The search strategy was validated through a workshop with experts and community stakeholders, with expertise in environment, health, emergency management and risk communication.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 43 articles were included. These articles addressed issues such as: climate change (n = 22), flooding (n = 12), hurricane events (n = 5), extreme heat (n = 2), and wild fires (n = 2). Studies were predominantly from the US (n = 14), Europe (n = 6) and Canada (n = 5).<br><br>CONCLUSION: To meet the OPHS 2018, public health practitioners need to engage in effective risk communication to motivate local actions that mitigate the effects of extreme weather and climate change. Based on the scoping review, risk communication efforts during short-term extreme weather events appear to be more effective than efforts to communicate risk around climate change. This distinction could highlight a unique opportunity for public health to adapt strategies commonly used for extreme weather to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31021064, year = {2019}, author = {Kingsley, M and , }, title = {Commentary - Climate change, health and green space co-benefits.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {131-135}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.04}, pmid = {31021064}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {We examined two of humanity's present-day challenges, climate change and chronic diseases, in relation to the co-benefits that green spaces provide to human health and the environment. The reduction of several chronic diseases and associated symptoms, including anxiety, obesity and cardiovascular disease, has been associated with the presence of and access to green space. Green spaces also contribute to a number of environmental health benefits and have been shown to reduce the likelihood of flooding, improve air quality and provide cooling and shade. These co-benefits address both the symptoms of several chronic diseases and associated risk factors along with the environmental and health impacts of climate change. This article explores how to maximize the co-benefits of green spaces through two examples of multi-sectoral collaborations. With these two examples, we have provided a model of collective collaboration that aims to address complex issues, such as climate change and chronic diseases, through the common intervention of green spaces.}, }
@article {pmid31021063, year = {2019}, author = {Richards, G and Frehs, J and Myers, E and Van Bibber, M}, title = {Commentary - The Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program: Indigenous Climate Leaders' Championing Adaptation Effort.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {127-130}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.03}, pmid = {31021063}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {The Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program (CCHAP) is a program within the First Nations Inuit Health Branch of Indigenous Services Canada (which was previously under the responsibility of Health Canada). The CCHAP supports Inuit and First Nation communities in mitigating and adapting to the health impacts of climate change. The impacts of climate change on Indigenous health can be observed in multiple areas including, but not limited to, food security, cultural medicines, mental health and landbased practices. This program seeks to address the needs of climate change and health in First Nation and Inuit communities to support resiliency and adaptation to a changing climate both now and in the future through its emphasis on youth and capacity building. The commentary is based on the Program's eleven years of experience working with and for Indigenous communities and provides an overview of the CCHAP model and the work it has and continues to support. This paper demonstrates three examples of community-based projects to mitigate and adapt to the health impacts of climate change to demonstrate climate change resiliency within Indigenous communities.}, }
@article {pmid31021062, year = {2019}, author = {Kipp, A and Cunsolo, A and Vodden, K and King, N and Manners, S and Harper, SL}, title = {At-a-glance - Climate change impacts on health and wellbeing in rural and remote regions across Canada: a synthesis of the literature.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {122-126}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.02}, pmid = {31021062}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {This article provides a synthesis of the forthcoming first order draft of the Canadian Government's National Assessment on Climate Change 'Rural and Remote' chapter, highlighting key health concerns from the literature associated with climate change in rural and remote regions, as well as existing and future adaptation strategies. To support the health and wellbeing of those experiencing the negative effects of climate change, and utilizing systematic search processes, this synthesis article highlights the importance of considering the specific socio-cultural, economic, and geographic elements and existing expertise of individuals and communities in rural and remote regions.}, }
@article {pmid31021061, year = {2019}, author = {Cunsolo, A and Harper, SL}, title = {Editorial - Climate change and health: a grand challenge and grand opportunity for public health in Canada.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {119-121}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.01}, pmid = {31021061}, issn = {2368-738X}, }
@article {pmid31018473, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, B and Deveson, ED and Waters, C and Spessa, A and Lawton, D and Feng, P and Liu, L}, title = {Future climate change likely to reduce the Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera) seasonal outbreaks.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {668}, number = {}, pages = {947-957}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.439}, pmid = {31018473}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate is a major limiting factor for insect distributions and it is expected that a changing climate will likely alter spatial patterns of pest outbreaks. The Australian plague locust (APL) Chortoicetes terminifera, is the most economically important locust species in Australia. Invasions cause large scale economic damage to agricultural crops and pastures. Understanding the regional-scale and long-term dynamics is a prerequisite to develop effective control and preventive management strategies. In this study, we used a 32-year locust survey database to uncover the relationship between historical bioclimatic variables and spatial seasonal outbreaks by developing two machine learning species distribution models (SDMs), random forest and boosted regression trees. The explanatory variables were ranked by contribution to the generated models. The bio-climate models were then projected into a future climate change scenario (RCP8.5) using downscaled 34 global climate models (GCMs) to assess how climate change may alter APL seasonal distribution patterns in eastern Australia. Our results show that the model for the distribution of spring outbreaks performed better than those for summer and autumn, based on statistical evaluation criteria. The spatial models of seasonal outbreaks indicate that the areas subject to APL outbreaks were likely to decrease in all seasons. Multi-GCM ensemble means show the largest decrease in area was for spring outbreaks, reduced by 93-94% by 2071-2090, while the area of summer outbreaks decreased by 78-90%, and 67-74% for autumn outbreaks. The bioclimatic variables could explain 78-98% outbreak areas change. This study represents an important step toward the assessment of the effects of the changing climate on locust outbreaks and can help inform future priorities for regional mitigation efforts in the context of global climate change in eastern Australia.}, }
@article {pmid31018443, year = {2019}, author = {Fonseca, AR and Santos, JA}, title = {Predicting hydrologic flows under climate change: The Tâmega Basin as an analog for the Mediterranean region.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {668}, number = {}, pages = {1013-1024}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.435}, pmid = {31018443}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology of the Tâmega River basin, northern Portugal, are assessed by comparing simulated hydrologic scenarios derived from both observational climate databases for a recent past period (1950-2015) and EURO-CORDEX model simulations for the future (2021-2100). Future climate change scenarios are based on an ensemble of five climate model chain experiments and on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Basin-mean annual temperatures are ca. 10% or 20% warmer than in recent past climate (12.4 °C) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Furthermore, basin-mean annual precipitation decreases by approximately 8% or 13%, when compared to recent past (1255 mm). The Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) is applied to the historical data and to each of the five model simulations separately so as to simulate potential changes in flowrates. The model is calibrated and validated using 5 hydrometric stations, achieving satisfactory results regarding flowrate simulation. A reconstruction of flowrates within the entire river basin and over the historical period is accomplished, which is particularly useful when observed data is missing. The projected climate change impacts on annual flowrates reveal a decrease from 18% to 28% relative to observations (70.9 m3 s-1). These findings provide valuable information for the future management and planning of water resources (water security) and can be largely generalized not only to other basins in Portugal, but also over most of Southern Europe and throughout the Mediterranean Basin, where significant warming and drying trends are widespread footprints of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31016366, year = {2019}, author = {Lehmkuhl, D}, title = {[Climate change and its significance in the healthcare community: history, landmarks, and major players].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02935-9}, pmid = {31016366}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {Since the early 1990s, science has addressed anthropogenic climate change as a health issue. From about 2000 onwards, the scientific literature and evidence on the health effects of climate change has been rapidly increasing. Global warming is now considered an &quot;existential threat to humankind,&quot; and leading health organizations call climate change &quot;the defining issue for public health in the 21 century&quot; or a &quot;public health emergency.&quot;In recent years, climate change as a health issue has become more and more prominent in health communities on the national and international level.The growing importance of this issue in the international health community and the stages, milestones, and topics of this development are described and what health professionals and health organizations can do to protect health from climate change is demonstrated. The decisive role of The Lancet and the reports of its international commissions, the British Medical Journal (BMJ), and the World Health Organisation (WHO) in setting the agenda is underlined. Important actors, organizations, initiatives as well as new concepts like &quot;planetary health&quot; and &quot;planetary boundaries&quot; are introduced. In the German health sector, however, climate change - apart from niches - has not been much of an issue so far. Neither in the health sector, climate policies, nor climate movement the connections between climate change and health are sufficiently understood, considered, or implemented. A look beyond borders shows what might be possible and necessary in view of the possibly &quot;greatest crisis we have ever faced.&quot;The article is based on the author's experience, cooperation, and exchange with parties that are engaged with the issue and on years of literature research. He initiated the campaign of German doctors calling on their pension funds to divest from fossil fuels and is a founding and present board member of the &quot;German Alliance on Health and Climate Change,&quot; which was founded 2017.}, }
@article {pmid31016365, year = {2019}, author = {Kendrovski, V and Schmoll, O}, title = {Priorities for protecting health from climate change in the WHO European Region: recent regional activities.}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02943-9}, pmid = {31016365}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {Evidence of the impact of climate change on health is growing. Health systems need to be prepared and gradually adapt to the effects of climate change, including extreme weather events.Fossil fuel combustion as the driver of climate change poses a tremendous burden of disease. In turn, cutting greenhouse gas emissions in all sectors will achieve health co-benefits. If all countries meet the Paris Agreement by 2030, the annual number of avoidable premature deaths could total 138,000 across the entire European Region of the World Health Organization (WHO).Several international frameworks promote a stronger commitment by countries to implementing the necessary adaptations in the health sector and to addressing health considerations in adaptation measures in other sectors. The WHO has a mandate from its member states to identify solutions and help prevent or reduce health impacts, including those from climate change.National governments are continuing to establish public health adaptation measures, which provide a rationale for and trigger action on climate change by the health community. Effective national responses to climate risks require strategic analyses of current and anticipated threats. Health professionals need to play a proactive role in promoting health arguments and evidence in the formulation of national climate change adaptation and mitigation responses. To this end, country capacities need to be further strengthened to identify and address local health risks posed by climate change and to develop, implement and evaluate health-focused interventions through integrated approaches. Building climate-resilient and environmentally sustainable health care facilities is an essential pillar of health sector leadership to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31015996, year = {2019}, author = {Gómez-Gras, D and Linares, C and de Caralt, S and Cebrian, E and Frleta-Valić, M and Montero-Serra, I and Pagès-Escolà, M and López-Sendino, P and Garrabou, J}, title = {Response diversity in Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages facing climate change: Insights from a multispecific thermotolerance experiment.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {4168-4180}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5045}, pmid = {31015996}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change threatens coastal benthic communities on a global scale. However, the potential effects of ongoing warming on mesophotic temperate reefs at the community level remain poorly understood. Investigating how different members of these communities will respond to the future expected environmental conditions is, therefore, key to anticipating their future trajectories and developing specific management and conservation strategies. Here, we examined the responses of some of the main components of the highly diverse Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages to thermal stress. We performed thermotolerance experiments with different temperature treatments (from 26 to 29°C) with 10 species from different phyla (three anthozoans, six sponges and one ascidian) and different structural roles. Overall, we observed species-specific contrasting responses to warming regardless of phyla or growth form. Moreover, the responses ranged from highly resistant species to sensitive species and were mostly in agreement with previous field observations from mass mortality events (MMEs) linked to Mediterranean marine heat waves. Our results unravel the diversity of responses to warming in coralligenous outcrops and suggest the presence of potential winners and losers in the face of climate change. Finally, this study highlights the importance of accounting for species-specific vulnerabilities and response diversity when forecasting the future trajectories of temperate benthic communities in a warming ocean.}, }
@article {pmid31010935, year = {2019}, author = {Hopkinson, NS and Hart, N and Jenkins, G and Rosenfeld, M and Smyth, AR and Wilkinson, AJK and Kaminski, N}, title = {Climate change and lung health: presidential failure, professional responsibility.}, journal = {Thorax}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/thoraxjnl-2019-213184}, pmid = {31010935}, issn = {1468-3296}, }
@article {pmid31010922, year = {2019}, author = {Diffenbaugh, NS and Burke, M}, title = {Global warming has increased global economic inequality.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1816020116}, pmid = {31010922}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Understanding the causes of economic inequality is critical for achieving equitable economic development. To investigate whether global warming has affected the recent evolution of inequality, we combine counterfactual historical temperature trajectories from a suite of global climate models with extensively replicated empirical evidence of the relationship between historical temperature fluctuations and economic growth. Together, these allow us to generate probabilistic country-level estimates of the influence of anthropogenic climate forcing on historical economic output. We find very high likelihood that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased economic inequality between countries. For example, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has been reduced 17-31% at the poorest four deciles of the population-weighted country-level per capita GDP distribution, yielding a ratio between the top and bottom deciles that is 25% larger than in a world without global warming. As a result, although between-country inequality has decreased over the past half century, there is ∼90% likelihood that global warming has slowed that decrease. The primary driver is the parabolic relationship between temperature and economic growth, with warming increasing growth in cool countries and decreasing growth in warm countries. Although there is uncertainty in whether historical warming has benefited some temperate, rich countries, for most poor countries there is >90% likelihood that per capita GDP is lower today than if global warming had not occurred. Thus, our results show that, in addition to not sharing equally in the direct benefits of fossil fuel use, many poor countries have been significantly harmed by the warming arising from wealthy countries' energy consumption.}, }
@article {pmid31007726, year = {2019}, author = {Thomas, K and Hardy, RD and Lazrus, H and Mendez, M and Orlove, B and Rivera-Collazo, I and Roberts, JT and Rockman, M and Warner, BP and Winthrop, R}, title = {Explaining differential vulnerability to climate change: A social science review.}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {e565}, doi = {10.1002/wcc.565}, pmid = {31007726}, issn = {1757-7780}, abstract = {The varied effects of recent extreme weather events around the world exemplify the uneven impacts of climate change on populations, even within relatively small geographic regions. Differential human vulnerability to environmental hazards results from a range of social, economic, historical, and political factors, all of which operate at multiple scales. While adaptation to climate change has been the dominant focus of policy and research agendas, it is essential to ask as well why some communities and peoples are disproportionately exposed to and affected by climate threats. The cases and synthesis presented here are organized around four key themes (resource access, governance, culture, and knowledge), which we approach from four social science fields (cultural anthropology, archaeology, human geography, and sociology). Social scientific approaches to human vulnerability draw vital attention to the root causes of climate change threats and the reasons that people are forced to adapt to them. Because vulnerability is a multidimensional process rather than an unchanging state, a dynamic social approach to vulnerability is most likely to improve mitigation and adaptation planning efforts. This article is categorized under:Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Values-Based Approach to Vulnerability and Adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31007600, year = {2018}, author = {Hernandez, Y and Barbosa, P and Corral, S and Rivas, S}, title = {An institutional analysis to address climate change adaptation in Tenerife (Canary Islands).}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; policy}, volume = {89}, number = {}, pages = {184-191}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2018.07.017}, pmid = {31007600}, issn = {1462-9011}, abstract = {Heat waves and Saharan dust outbreaks have been acquiring more frequency and intensity in the Canary Islands during the last decades. Both climatic hazards are known to produce impacts on human health such as mortality (due to heat waves) and morbidity (due to dusty weather). This work addresses possible climate adaptation policies in Tenerife assuming the increasing impact of heat waves and Saharan dust outbreaks in the island under a climate change scenario. It explores the institutional setting of climate change adaptation planning in Tenerife and evaluates the statu quo of adaptation planning in the island through the engagement of key social actors. An historical review of the local and regional press articles and legislation, an in-depth round of interviews, together with questionnaires to the main social actors allows framing the social and political context in which climate change adaptation in Tenerife is embedded. Key social actors were engaged, including international organisations, atmospheric research centres, local Universities, regional and insular governments, trade unions, and environmental NGOs, among others. The main obstacles mentioned by the social actors that hinder the development of an effective climate adaptation policy address scientific knowledge, data collection and policy making, focusing on the uncertainty of climate models, the lack of epidemiological data and contrasting opinions regarding the existing climate adaptation policies. Public participation, mainstreaming of climate policies and an integrated approach between mitigation and adaptation plans were identified as key policy issues. The outcomes of this study could be meaningful for climate adaptation initiatives at local or regional level, such as the Global Covenant of Mayors, that intend to promote climate resilience through the setup of climate adaptation strategies and plans at municipality level.}, }
@article {pmid31007291, year = {2019}, author = {Feng, X and Liu, C and Xie, F and Lu, J and Chiu, LS and Tintera, G and Chen, B}, title = {Precipitation characteristic changes due to global warming in a high-resolution (16 km) ECMWF simulation.}, journal = {Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)}, volume = {145}, number = {718}, pages = {303-317}, doi = {10.1002/qj.3432}, pmid = {31007291}, issn = {0035-9009}, abstract = {Changes in precipitation amount, intensity and frequency in response to global warming are examined using global high-resolution (16 km) climate model simulations based on the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) conducted under Project Athena. Our study shows the increases of zonal-mean total precipitation in all latitudes except the northern subtropics (15°-30°N) and southern subtropics-to-midlatitudes (30°-40°S). The probability distribution function (PDF) changes in different latitudes suggest a higher occurrence of light precipitation (LP; ≤1 mm/day) and heavy precipitation (HP; ≥30 mm/day) at the expense of moderate precipitation reduction (MP; 1-30 mm/day) from Tropics to midlatitudes, but an increase in all categories of precipitation in polar regions. On the other hand, the PDF change with global warming in different precipitation climatological zones presents another image. For all regions and seasons examined, there is an HP increase at the cost of MP, but LP varies. The reduced MP in richer precipitation zones resides in the PDF peak intensities, which linearly increase with the precipitation climatology zones. In particular in the Tropics (20°S to 20°N), the precipitation PDF has a flatter distribution (i.e. HP and LP increases with MP reduction) except for the Sahara Desert. In the primary precipitation zones in the subtropics (20°-40°) of both hemispheres, precipitation over land switches toward higher intensity (HP increases, but MP and LP decrease) in both winter and summer, while precipitation over ocean in both seasons shows a flattening trend in the intensity distribution. For the major precipitation zones of the mid-to-high latitude belt (40°-70°), PDF of precipitation tends to be flatter over ocean in summer, but switches toward higher intensities over land in both summer and winter, as well as over ocean in winter.}, }
@article {pmid31005841, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, K and Pan, Q and Yu, D and Wang, L and Liu, Z and Li, X and Liu, X}, title = {Systemically modeling the relationship between climate change and wheat aphid abundance.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {674}, number = {}, pages = {392-400}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.143}, pmid = {31005841}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change influences all living beings. Wheat aphids deplete the nutritional value of wheat and affect the production of wheat in changing climate. In this study, we attempt to explain the ecological mechanisms of how climate change affects wheat aphids by simulating the relationship between climate and the abundance of wheat aphids, which will not only aid in improving wheat aphid forecasting and the effectiveness of prevention and treatment, but also help mitigate food crises. Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) are an effective tool for portraying complex systems. Using Sitobion avenae and climatological data collected in China, we made use of differential evolution (DE) algorithms to construct FCM models that directly illustrate the effect of climate on wheat aphid abundance. The relationships among climate and wheat aphids at different growth stages (I-III instar larvae, IV instar larvae with wings, IV instar larvae without wings, adult with wings, adult without wings) were established. The analysis results from the FCM models show that temperature positively influences wheat aphids most. Moreover, these models can be used to determine the numerical value of each climate factor and the abundance of wheat aphids quantitatively. Furthermore, the two overall relationship models between climate and wheat aphids were constructed and the experimental results show that natural enemies and highest daily temperature affect wheat aphids most. Natural enemies and highest daily temperature exert negative and positive impacts on wheat aphids respectively. Some interrelationships among wheat aphids at all growth stages and the internal relationships among climate factors were also shown.}, }
@article {pmid31004118, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmadi, M and Hemami, MR and Kaboli, M and Malekian, M and Zimmermann, NE}, title = {Extinction risks of a Mediterranean neo-endemism complex of mountain vipers triggered by climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {6332}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-42792-9}, pmid = {31004118}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change is among the most important drivers of biodiversity decline through shift or shrinkage in suitable habitat of species. Mountain vipers of the genus Montivipera are under extreme risk from climate changes given their evolutionary history and geographic distribution. In this study, we divided all Montivipera species into three phylogenetic-geographic Montivipera clades (PGMC; Bornmuelleri, Raddei and Xanthina) and applied an ensemble ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach under different climatic scenarios to assess changes in projected suitable habitats of these species. Based on the predicted range losses, we assessed the projected extinction risk of the species relative to IUCN Red List Criteria. Our result revealed a strong decline in suitable habitats for all PGMCs (63.8%, 79.3% and 96.8% for Xanthina, Raddei and Bornmuelleri, respectively, by 2070 and under 8.5 RCP scenario) with patterns of altitudinal range shifts in response to projected climate change. We found that the mountains close to the Mediterranean Sea are exposed to the highest threats in the future (84.6 ± 9.1 percent range loss). We also revealed that disjunct populations of Montivipera will be additionally highly isolated and fragmented in the future. We argue that leveraging climate niche projections into the risk assessment provides the opportunity to implement IUCN criteria and better assess forthcoming extinction risks of species.}, }
@article {pmid30999175, year = {2019}, author = {Purakayastha, TJ and Bera, T and Bhaduri, D and Sarkar, B and Mandal, S and Wade, P and Kumari, S and Biswas, S and Menon, M and Pathak, H and Tsang, DCW}, title = {A review on biochar modulated soil condition improvements and nutrient dynamics concerning crop yields: Pathways to climate change mitigation and global food security.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {227}, number = {}, pages = {345-365}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2019.03.170}, pmid = {30999175}, issn = {1879-1298}, abstract = {The beneficial role of biochar on improvement of soil quality, C sequestration, and enhancing crop yield is widely reported. As such there is not much consolidated information available linking biochar modulated soil condition improvement and soil nutrient availability on crop yields. The present review paper addresses the above issues by compilation of world literature on biochar and a new dimension is introduced in this review by performing a meta-analysis of published data by using multivariate statistical analysis. Hence this review is a new in its kind and is useful to the broad spectrum of readers. Generally, alkalinity in biochar increases with increase in pyrolysis temperature and majority of the biochar is alkaline in nature except a few which are acidic. The N content in many biochar was reported to be more than 4% as well as less than 0.5%. Poultry litter biochar is a rich source of P (3.12%) and K (7.40%), while paper mill sludge biochar is higher in Ca content (31.1%) and swine solids biochar in Zn (49810 mg kg-1), and Fe (74800 mg kg-1) contents. The effect of biochar on enhancing soil pH was higher in Alfisol, Ferrosol and Acrisol. Soil application of biochar could on an average increase (78%), decrease (16%), or show no effect on crop yields under different soil types. Biochar produced at a lower pyrolysis temperature could deliver greater soil nutrient availabilities than that prepared at higher temperature. Principal component analysis (PCA) of available data shows an inverse relationship between [pyrolysis temperature and soil pH], and [biochar application rate and soil cation exchange capacity]. The PCA also suggests that the original soil properties and application rate strongly control crop yield stimulations via biochar amendments. Finally, biochar application shows net soil C gains while also serving for increased plant biomass production that strongly recommends biochar as a useful soil amendment. Therefore, the application of biochar to soils emerges as a 'win-win strategy' for sustainable waste management, climate change mitigation and food security.}, }
@article {pmid30998388, year = {2019}, author = {Schmidt, CW}, title = {The Future of Stunting: Potential Scenarios under Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {127}, number = {4}, pages = {44002}, doi = {10.1289/EHP5049}, pmid = {30998388}, issn = {1552-9924}, }
@article {pmid30997525, year = {2019}, author = {Schoierer, J and Mertes, H and Wershofen, B and Böse-O'Reilly, S}, title = {[Training modules on climate change, heat, and health for medical assistants and nurses in outpatient care].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02942-w}, pmid = {30997525}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {The number of heatwaves is going to increase due to climate change and will pose a high health risk especially for elderly people. Additional risk factors like immobility, the need for care, chronic and acute diseases (worsening of symptoms), and the intake of medications lead to an increased sensitivity to heat in this particular age group. Nursing staff and medical assistants working in general practices are two important professions to reach the risk group during heatwaves and provide preventive and curative care.The &quot;Klinikum der Universität München&quot; has developed an interprofessional blended-learning program to sensitize for this topic and to enable those two professional groups to react adequately to heat events. It combines independent learning with the help of online videos and presentations and a face-to-face component for the practical application of knowledge through examples. The concept, the results, as well as the conclusion of the project, which completed in October 2018, are presented in this article.Educational programs are part of the adaption strategies to heat events. The &quot;Recommendations for the creation of Heat Action Plans for the Protection of Human Health&quot; state that advanced trainings and education of healthcare and social workers help to communicate relevant content to adequately act during heat periods. The developed educational program fulfills this demand.To enable the widest possible use, the training materials are available free of charge and can be downloaded from www.klimawandelundbildung.de .}, }
@article {pmid30995250, year = {2019}, author = {Smith, MA and Sullender, BK and Koeppen, WC and Kuletz, KJ and Renner, HM and Poe, AJ}, title = {An assessment of climate change vulnerability for Important Bird Areas in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0214573}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0214573}, pmid = {30995250}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Recently available downscaled ocean climate models for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc offer the opportunity to assess climate vulnerability for upper trophic level consumers such as marine birds. We analyzed seasonal and annual spatial projections from three climate models for two physical climate variables (seawater temperature and sea ice) and three forage variables (large copepods, euphausiids, and benthic infauna), comparing projected conditions from a recent time period (2003-2012) to a future time period (2030-2039). We focused the analyses on core areas within globally significant Important Bird Areas, and developed indices of the magnitude of projected change and vulnerability agreement among models. All three climate models indicated a high degree of change for seawater temperature warming (highest in the central and eastern Aleutian Islands) and ice loss (most significant in the eastern Bering Sea) across scales, and we found those changes to be significant for every species and virtually every core area assessed. There was low model agreement for the forage variables; while the majority of core areas were identified as climate vulnerable by one or more models (72% for large copepods, 73% for euphausiids, and 94% for benthic infauna), very few were agreed upon by all three models (only 6% of euphausiid-forager core areas). Based on the magnitude-agreement score, euphausiid biomass decline affected core areas for fulmars, gulls, and auklets, especially along the outer shelf and Aleutian Islands. Benthic biomass decline affected eiders along the inner shelf, and large copepod decline was significant for storm-petrels and auklets in the western Aleutians. Overall, 12% of core areas indicated climate vulnerability for all variables assessed. Modeling and interpreting biological parameters to project future dynamics remains complex; the strong signal for projected physical changes raised concerns about lagged responses such as distribution shifts, breeding failures, mortality events, and population declines.}, }
@article {pmid30995228, year = {2019}, author = {Lippi, CA and Stewart-Ibarra, AM and Loor, MEFB and Zambrano, JED and Lopez, NAE and Blackburn, JK and Ryan, SJ}, title = {Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e0007322}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322}, pmid = {30995228}, issn = {1935-2735}, abstract = {Arboviral disease transmission by Aedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti in Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease transmission. ENMs built with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) algorithm and a suite of environmental variables were assessed for agreement and accuracy. The top model of larval mosquito presence was projected to the year 2050 under various combinations of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. Under current climatic conditions, larval mosquitoes were not predicted in areas of high elevation in Ecuador, such as the Andes mountain range, as well as the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. However, all models projected to scenarios of future climate change demonstrated potential shifts in mosquito distribution, wherein range contractions were seen throughout most of eastern Ecuador, and areas of transitional elevation became suitable for mosquito presence. Encroachment of Ae. aegypti into mountainous terrain was estimated to affect up to 4,215 km2 under the most extreme scenario of climate change, an area which would put over 12,000 people currently living in transitional areas at risk. This distributional shift into communities at higher elevations indicates an area of concern for public health agencies, as targeted interventions may be needed to protect vulnerable populations with limited prior exposure to mosquito-borne diseases. Ultimately, the results of this study serve as a tool for informing public health policy and mosquito abatement strategies in Ecuador.}, }
@article {pmid30995158, year = {2019}, author = {Sanz-Menéndez, L and Cruz-Castro, L}, title = {The credibility of scientific communication sources regarding climate change: A population-based survey experiment.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {963662519840946}, doi = {10.1177/0963662519840946}, pmid = {30995158}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {This article analyses whether different institutional sources of scientific information have an impact on its credibility. Through a population-based survey experiment of a national representative sample of the Spanish public, we measure the credibility that citizens attribute to scientific information on the evolution of CO2 emissions disclosed by different institutional sources (business associations, government, non-government environmental organisations, international bodies and national research institutions). The findings show that an institutional credibility gap exists in science communication. We also investigate the factors accounting for the credibility of the different institutional sources by examining variables related to knowledge, interest, trust, reputation, deference, attitudes, values and personal characteristics. Exploratory regression analyses reveal that identical variables can produce different effects on the credibility of scientific information, depending on the institutional source to which it is attributed.}, }
@article {pmid30993361, year = {2019}, author = {Mücke, HG and Straff, W}, title = {[Increasing weather extremes are reasons to take health adaptation to climate change seriously].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02944-8}, pmid = {30993361}, issn = {1437-1588}, }
@article {pmid30993048, year = {2019}, author = {Tang, L and Wang, R and He, KS and Shi, C and Yang, T and Huang, Y and Zheng, P and Shi, F}, title = {Throwing light on dark diversity of vascular plants in China: predicting the distribution of dark and threatened species under global climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6731}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.6731}, pmid = {30993048}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background: As global climate change accelerates, ecologists and conservationists are increasingly investigating changes in biodiversity and predicting species distribution based on species observed at sites, but rarely consider those plant species that could potentially inhabit but are absent from these areas (i.e., the dark diversity and its distribution). Here, we estimated the dark diversity of vascular plants in China and picked up threatened dark species from the result, and applied maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to project current and future distributions of those dark species in their potential regions (those regions that have these dark species).<br><br>Methods: We used the Beals probability index to estimate dark diversity in China based on available species distribution information and explored which environmental variables had significant impacts on dark diversity by incorporating bioclimatic data into the random forest (RF) model. We collected occurrence data of threatened dark species (Eucommia ulmoides, Liriodendron chinense, Phoebe bournei, Fagus longipetiolata, Amentotaxus argotaenia, and Cathaya argyrophylla) and related bioclimatic information that can be used to predict their distributions. In addition, we used MaxEnt modeling to project their distributions in suitable areas under future (2050 and 2070) climate change scenarios.<br><br>Results: We found that every study region's dark diversity was lower than its observed species richness. In these areas, their numbers of dark species are ranging from 0 to 215, with a generally increasing trend from western regions to the east. RF results showed that temperature variables had a more significant effect on dark diversity than those associated with precipitation. The results of MaxEnt modeling showed that most threatened dark species were climatically suitable in their potential regions from current to 2070.<br><br>Discussions: The results of this study provide the first ever dark diversity patterns concentrated in China, even though it was estimated at the provincial scale. A combination of dark diversity and MaxEnt modeling is an effective way to shed light on the species that make up the dark diversity, such as projecting the distribution of specific dark species under global climate change. Besides, the combination of dark diversity and species distribution models (SDMs) may also be of value for ex situ conservation, ecological restoration, and species invasion prevention in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30992446, year = {2019}, author = {Fletcher, S and Lickley, M and Strzepek, K}, title = {Learning about climate change uncertainty enables flexible water infrastructure planning.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1782}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09677-x}, pmid = {30992446}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Water resources planning requires decision-making about infrastructure development under uncertainty in future regional climate conditions. However, uncertainty in climate change projections will evolve over the 100-year lifetime of a dam as new climate observations become available. Flexible strategies in which infrastructure is proactively designed to be changed in the future have the potential to meet water supply needs without expensive over-building. Evaluating tradeoffs between flexible and traditional static planning approaches requires extension of current paradigms for planning under climate change uncertainty which do not assess opportunities to reduce uncertainty in the future. We develop a new planning framework that assesses the potential to learn about regional climate change over time and therefore evaluates the appropriateness of flexible approaches today. We demonstrate it on a reservoir planning problem in Mombasa, Kenya. This approach identifies opportunities to reliably use incremental approaches, enabling adaptation investments to reach more vulnerable communities with fewer resources.}, }
@article {pmid30992396, year = {2019}, author = {Kwok, R}, title = {Science and Culture: Can climate change games boost public understanding?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {16}, pages = {7602-7604}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1903508116}, pmid = {30992396}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid30991313, year = {2019}, author = {Whitehead, PG and Jin, L and Bussi, G and Voepel, HE and Darby, SE and Vasilopoulos, G and Manley, R and Rodda, H and Hutton, C and Hackney, C and Tri, VPD and Hung, NN}, title = {Water quality modelling of the Mekong River basin: Climate change and socioeconomics drive flow and nutrient flux changes to the Mekong Delta.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {673}, number = {}, pages = {218-229}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.315}, pmid = {30991313}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Mekong delta is recognised as one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas, being subject to a range of environmental pressures including sea level rise, increasing population, and changes in flows and nutrients from its upland catchment. With changing climate and socioeconomics there is a need to assess how the Mekong catchment will be affected in terms of the delivery of water and nutrients into the delta system. Here we apply the Integrated Catchment model (INCA) to the whole Mekong River Basin to simulate flow and water quality, including nitrate, ammonia, total phosphorus and soluble reactive phosphorus. The impacts of climate change on all these variables have been assessed across 24 river reaches ranging from the Himalayas down to the delta in Vietnam. We used the UK Met Office PRECIS regionally coupled climate model to downscale precipitation and temperature to the Mekong catchment. This was accomplished using the Global Circulation Model GFDL-CM to provide the boundary conditions under two carbon control strategies, namely representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and a RCP 8.5 scenario. The RCP 4.5 scenario represents the carbon strategy required to meet the Paris Accord, which aims to limit peak global temperatures to below a 2 °C rise whilst seeking to pursue options that limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The RCP 8.5 scenario is associated with a larger 3-4 °C rise. In addition, we also constructed a range of socio-economic scenarios to investigate the potential impacts of changing population, atmospheric pollution, economic growth and land use change up to the 2050s. Results of INCA simulations indicate increases in mean flows of up to 24%, with flood flows in the monsoon period increasing by up to 27%, but with increasing periods of drought up to 2050. A shift in the timing of the monsoon is also simulated, with a 4 week advance in the onset of monsoon flows on average. Decreases in nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations occur primarily due to flow dilution, but fluxes of these nutrients also increase by 5%, which reflects the changing flow, land use change and population changes.}, }
@article {pmid30990800, year = {2019}, author = {Myhr, A and Røyne, F and Brandtsegg, AS and Bjerkseter, C and Throne-Holst, H and Borch, A and Wentzel, A and Røyne, A}, title = {Towards a low CO2 emission building material employing bacterial metabolism (2/2): Prospects for global warming potential reduction in the concrete industry.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0208643}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0208643}, pmid = {30990800}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The production of concrete is one of the most significant contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions. This work focuses on bio-cementation-based products and their potential to reduce global warming potential (GWP). In particular, we address a proposed bio-cementation method employing bacterial metabolism in a two-step process of limestone dissolution and recrystallisation (BioZEment). A scenario-based techno-economic analysis (TEA) is combined with a life cycle assessment (LCA), a market model and a literature review of consumers' willingness to pay, to compute the expected reduction of global GWP. Based on the LCA, the GWP of 1 ton of BioZEment is found to be 70-83% lower than conventional concrete. In the TEA, three scenarios are investigated: brick, precast and onsite production. The results indicate that brick production may be the easiest way to implement the products, but that due to high cost, the impact on global GWP will be marginal. For precast production the expected 10% higher material cost of BioZEment only produces a marginal increase in total cost. Thus, precast production has the potential to reduce global GWP from concrete production by 0-20%. Significant technological hurdles remain before BioZEment-based products can be used in onsite construction scenarios, but in this scenario, the potential GWP reduction ranges from 1 to 26%. While the potential to reduce global GWP is substantial, significant efforts need to be made both in regard to public acceptance and production methods for this potential to be unlocked.}, }
@article {pmid30989322, year = {2019}, author = {Mitter, H and Larcher, M and Schönhart, M and Stöttinger, M and Schmid, E}, title = {Exploring Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions and Adaptation Intentions: Empirical Evidence from Austria.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01158-7}, pmid = {30989322}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {The lack of timely adaptation in agriculture may hamper prosperous farm developments by neglecting risks and opportunities emerging from climate change. Understanding farmers' perceptual and socio-cognitive processes is key in order to encourage on-farm adaptation. We aim at investigating how farmers' individual cognition on climate change and adaptation as well as socio-environmental context factors affect agricultural adaptation intention and avoidance. We build on the Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC) and apply a qualitative interview approach in two Austrian farming regions. Twenty semi-structured interviews have been conducted with 29 farmers. Based on the results of the qualitative content analysis, we have identified four groups of farmers, which differ in the formation process of adaptation intention and avoidance: (i) climate change adaptors, (ii) integrative adaptors, (iii) cost-benefit calculators, and (iv) climate change fatalists. Farmers who are part of groups (i)-(iii) form adaptation intentions, whereas climate change fatalists do not intend to adapt. According to our analysis, adaptation intentions are only formed if farmers are aware of effective adaptation measures, accept personal responsibility for their farms, and evaluate adaptation costs positively (i.e. adaptation appraisal). Farmers' climate change appraisal as well as farm and regional characteristics are also perceived relevant for farmers' adaptation decisions but seem to be less important than adaptation appraisal. Therefore, we conclude that engagement strategies and outreach efforts need not only address risks and opportunities, but should also strengthen farmers' self-responsibility and offer adaptation measures tailored to the regional characteristics and the farmers' needs.}, }
@article {pmid30989260, year = {2019}, author = {Baldermann, C and Lorenz, S}, title = {[UV radiation in Germany: influences of ozone depletion and climate change and measures to protect the population].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02934-w}, pmid = {30989260}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {Ultraviolet radiation (UV radiation) can lead to numerous skin and eye diseases, both immediately and later in life. The most serious consequence is skin cancer. The risk of skin cancer increases, among other things, with increasing UV irradiance and/or with increasing outdoor exposure times. Due to the fact that UV radiation is carcinogenic, protection of the population against harmful UV exposure is an important radiation protection and health objective.In Germany, ozone depletion and climate change can also influence the UV irradiance and outdoor exposure times to such an extent that the UV exposure of the population and thus the skin cancer risk can increase. This is why protection against harmful UV exposure is even more important. Since ozone depletion and climate change can further increase the UV exposure of humans, protection against high UV exposure is even more important. A country's adaptation strategies to the health consequences of ozone depletion and climate change should therefore also include strategies to reduce UV exposure.In this review, the health effects of UV radiation and the risk factors for UV-related skin cancer are first presented. The measurement of UV irradiance and exposure in Germany is explained. The effects of ozone depletion and climate change on UV exposure are then described and measures to protect the population are presented.}, }
@article {pmid30988183, year = {2019}, author = {Randell, H and Gray, C}, title = {Climate change and educational attainment in the global tropics.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1817480116}, pmid = {30988183}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate change may negatively impact education among children via exposure to extreme temperature and precipitation conditions. We link census data from 29 countries across the global tropics to high-resolution gridded climate data to understand how climatic conditions experienced in utero and during early childhood affect educational attainment at ages 12 to 16. We show that exposure to higher-than-average temperatures during the prenatal and early-life period is associated with fewer years of schooling in Southeast Asia. In this region, a child who experiences temperatures 2 SDs above average is predicted to attain 1.5 fewer years of schooling than one who experiences average temperatures. In addition, early-life rainfall is positively correlated with attainment in West and Central Africa as well as Southeast Asia, and negatively correlated with attainment in Central America and the Caribbean. While we expected that children from the most educated households would be buffered from these effects, we discover that they tend to experience the greatest educational penalties when exposed to hotter early-life conditions and, in some regions, to drier conditions. For example, among the most educated households in West and Central Africa, predicted schooling is 1.8 years lower for children who experience early-life rainfall 2 SDs below average versus 2 SDs above average, while the difference is just 0.8 years for children from the least educated households. These results suggest that development and educational gains in the tropics could be undermined by climate change, even for better-off households.}, }
@article {pmid30986089, year = {2019}, author = {Sellers, S and Ebi, KL and Hess, J}, title = {Climate Change, Human Health, and Social Stability: Addressing Interlinkages.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {127}, number = {4}, pages = {45002}, doi = {10.1289/EHP4534}, pmid = {30986089}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Abundant historical evidence demonstrates how environmental changes can affect social stability and, in turn, human health. A rapidly growing body of literature, largely from political science and economics, is examining the potential for and consequences associated with social instability related to current climate change. However, comparatively little of this research incorporates the effects on human health or the role of health systems in influencing the magnitude and types of instability that could occur.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The objective of this commentary is to articulate a conceptual framework incorporating health outcomes and health systems into theorized and observed linkages between climate change and social instability, illustrating in particular the health effects of natural resource shortages, infectious disease outbreaks, and migration.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Although increasing evidence exists that climate change, health, and social instability are related, key questions remain about the pathways linking these factors, as well as the magnitude, causality, and directionality of relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Models seeking to explain and predict climate-related social unrest should incorporate the many linkages between climate change, human health, and social instability. Members of the environmental health research community should work closely with those in the political science and economics communities to help deepen understandings of climate-related stressors and shocks that affect instability and worsen health outcomes. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4534.}, }
@article {pmid30984444, year = {2019}, author = {Kupika, OL and Gandiwa, E and Nhamo, G and Kativu, S}, title = {Local Ecological Knowledge on Climate Change and Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Strategies Promote Resilience in the Middle Zambezi Biosphere Reserve, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Scientifica}, volume = {2019}, number = {}, pages = {3069254}, doi = {10.1155/2019/3069254}, pmid = {30984444}, issn = {2090-908X}, abstract = {Understanding local community perceptions on impacts, causes, and responses to climate change is vital for promotion of community resilience towards climate change. This study explored local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by local communities on climate change trends and impacts in the Middle Zambezi Biosphere Reserve (MZBR), Zimbabwe. The objectives of the study were to (i) investigate local community perceptions on trends and causes of climate change, (ii) identify biophysical impacts of climate change at the local level, and (iii) explore the ecosystem-based adaptation strategies towards climate change. The study used a mixed methods approach where a household questionnaire survey (n=320), key informant interviews (n=12), and focus group discussions (n=8) were used to collect data between April 2015 and October 2016. Results from the study show that local communities have observed decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures as key indicators of climate change. Local communities observed water scarcity, changes in vegetation phenology, livestock and wildlife mortalities, and food shortages due to drought as the major impacts on their livelihoods. LEK can contribute to adaptive management strategies that enhance resilience of socioecological systems (SES) in the face of climate change by providing information on the status and use of biophysical components of the environment and by highlighting potential local adaptation strategies that can sustain key livelihood practices.}, }
@article {pmid30984216, year = {2019}, author = {De Boeck, HJ and Hiltbrunner, E and Jentsch, A and Vandvik, V}, title = {Editorial: Responses to Climate Change in the Cold Biomes.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {347}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00347}, pmid = {30984216}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid30983540, year = {2019}, author = {Omazic, A and Berggren, C and Thierfelder, T and Koch, A and Evengard, B}, title = {Discrepancies in data reporting of zoonotic infectious diseases across the Nordic countries - a call for action in the era of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {78}, number = {1}, pages = {1601991}, doi = {10.1080/22423982.2019.1601991}, pmid = {30983540}, issn = {2242-3982}, abstract = {Emerging infections have in recent years caused enormous health problems. About 70% of these infections are zoonotic e.g. arise from natural foci in the environment. As climate change impacts ecosystems there is an ongoing transition of infectious diseases in humans. With the fastest changes of the climate occurring in the Arctic, this area is important to monitor for infections with potentials to be climate sensitive. To meet the increasing demand for evidence-based policies regarding climate-sensitive infectious diseases, epidemiological studies are vital. A review of registered data for nine potentially climate-sensitive infections, collected from health authorities in Denmark/Greenland, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, found that performing such studies across countries is constrained by incompatible reporting systems and differences in regulations. To address this, international standardisation is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid30983064, year = {2019}, author = {Krebs, CJ and Boonstra, R and Gilbert, BS and Kenney, AJ and Boutin, S}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on the Small Mammal Community of the Yukon Boreal Forest.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12397}, pmid = {30983064}, issn = {1749-4877}, abstract = {Long-term monitoring is critical to determine stability and sustainability of wildlife populations, and if change has occurred, why. We have followed population density changes in the small mammal community in the boreal forest of the southern Yukon for 46 years with density estimates by live trapping on 3-5 unmanipulated grids in spring and autumn. This community consists of 10 species and was responsible for 9% of the energy flow in the herbivore component of this ecosystem from 1986-96, but this increased to 38% from 2003-2014. Small mammals, although small in size, are large in the transfer of energy from plants to predators and decomposers. Four species form the bulk of the biomass. There was shift in the dominant species from the 1970s to the 2000s, with Myodes rutilus increasing in relative abundance by 22% and Peromyscus maniculatus decreasing by 22%. From 2007 to 2018 Myodes comprised 63% of the catch, Peromyscus 20%, and Microtus species 17%. Possible causes of these changes involve climate change which is increasing primary production in this boreal forest and an associated increase in the abundance of three rodent predators, marten (Martes americana), ermine (Mustela erminea), and coyotes (Canis latrans). Following and understanding these and potential future changes will require long-term monitoring studies on a large scale to measure metapopulation dynamics. The small mammal community in northern Canada is being affected by climate change and cannot remain stable. Changes will be critically dependent on food-web interactions that are species specific. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30981142, year = {2019}, author = {Withey, P and Sullivan, D and Lantz, V}, title = {Willingness to pay for protection from storm surge damages under climate change in Halifax Regional Municipality.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {241}, number = {}, pages = {44-52}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.04.007}, pmid = {30981142}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change poses risks to coastal cities due to sea-level rise and changes in storm surge. Using the contingent valuation method and payment card format, this paper seeks to estimate residents of Halifax Regional Municipality's willingness to pay (WTP) for protection from flooding impacts from storm surge. The contribution of this study is the application of this method in a previously unstudied region, to understand individuals' perception of risk and WTP to avoid damage, in order to inform policy aimed at protecting against damage due to sea-level rise and storm surge. WTP is estimated without and with the expectation of future climate change, and also for public vs. private goods. Data is analyzed and compared using OLS, Heckman two-step and Tobit Interval regression models. Results suggest that on average, WTP is roughly $12 per month per household over a ten-year period without the expectation of climate change, and roughly $13 per month per household assuming climate change will have negative impacts in the region. Individuals are most often willing to pay to protect against damages to public infrastructure, as well as power outages. Income and education do not play a major role in individuals WTP. Vulnerability to flooding and level of concern related to risky events have a statistically significant impact on WTP in all models, and gender and age have an impact on WTP in some models.}, }
@article {pmid30980766, year = {2019}, author = {Lin, MJ and Torbeck, RL and Dubin, DP and Lin, CE and Khorasani, H}, title = {Climate Change and Skin Cancer.}, journal = {Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology : JEADV}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jdv.15622}, pmid = {30980766}, issn = {1468-3083}, abstract = {Over the past decade, climate change has accelerated rapidly. With global greenhouse gas emissions rising, average surface temperature has increased by nearly 1° Celsius since the 19th century. Rising global temperatures and other anthropogenic changes like stratospheric ozone depletion carry significant health risks, including factors that may increase the likelihood and severity of skin cancers. Solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is known to be one of the strongest contributors to skin cancer. Over the past century, the emission of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) from solvents, aerosol sprays and coolants has caused extensive depletion of the ozone layer, reducing its ability to filter harmful UVR. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30980113, year = {2019}, author = {Schach, H}, title = {[Organised neighbourhood support during extreme weather events in rural areas : Using the &quot;volunteers on-site system&quot; to strategically adapt to crisis situations caused by climate change].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02936-8}, pmid = {30980113}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. The impacts are globally and regionally visible through more and more frequent extreme weather events, be they devastating storms, longer periods of cold and heat or prolonged periods of drought alternating with heavy rain and flooding. In addition to the urgent need for climate change mitigation, therefore, the question has been raised for some time as to which measures cities and municipalities, rural districts and regions can use to prepare themselves against the consequences of climate change.The region of Northern Hesse developed strategies and measures for climate adaptation at an early stage as part of the KLIMZUG (shaping climate change for the future in regions) federal support programme. The question remains open as to what will happen in rural regions - and especially in remote places - when there is no more civil protection assistance available in the event of a disaster either because they are needed elsewhere, roads are impassable or electricity, telephone and Internet connections are no longer functioning. For this case, a project consortium led by the Regionalmanagement Nordhessen GmbH has now developed the &quot;volunteers on-site system&quot; (Freiwilligen-vor-Ort-System [FvOS]) as an organised form of neighbourhood support.This model project, which is unique in Germany, is intended to show how care for people in need of help and care can be ensured in rural areas in the event of a disaster.The project has sensitised citizens and task forces to this task and initiated a process that is intended to lead to more self-responsibility, but also safety in the event of a disaster situation. FvOS is intended to signal the need for climate change mitigation throughout Germany.}, }
@article {pmid30978188, year = {2019}, author = {Lee, J and de Carvalho, M}, title = {Technological improvements or climate change? Bayesian modeling of time-varying conformance to Benford's Law.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0213300}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0213300}, pmid = {30978188}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {We develop a Bayesian time-varying model that tracks periods at which conformance to Benford's Law is lower. Our methods are motivated by recent attempts to assess how the quality and homogeneity of large datasets may change over time by using the First-Digit Rule. We resort to a smooth multinomial logistic model which captures the dynamics governing the proportion of first digits, and apply the proposed model to global tropical cyclone tracks over the past two centuries. Our findings indicate that cumulative technological improvements may have only had a moderate influence on the homogeneity of the dataset, and hint that recent heterogeneity could be due to other drivers.}, }
@article {pmid30977006, year = {2019}, author = {Gorh, D and Baruah, KK}, title = {Estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emission from wetland rice paddies with reference to global warming potential.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-05026-z}, pmid = {30977006}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are two important greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute largely to global warming and climate change. The impact of physiological characteristics of rice genotypes on global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) is not well documented. A 2-year field experiment was conducted with eight summer rice varieties: Dinanath, Joymoti, Kanaklata, Swarnabh, IR 64, Tapaswami (modern varieties), Number 9, and Jagilee Boro (indigenous varieties) for two successive seasons (December-June, 2015-2016 and December-June, 2016-2017) to estimate their GWP and GHGI. The GWP of the rice varieties ranged from 841.52 to 1288.67 kg CO2-equiv. ha-1 and GHGI from 0.184 to 0.854 kg CO2-equiv. kg-1 grain yield. Significant differences (p < 0.05) in seasonal GHG emission, GWP, GHGI, CEE (carbon equivalent emission), photosynthetic efficiency, stomatal conductance, transpiration rate, and grain productivity among the rice varieties were observed during the investigation. A good correlation of GWP (p < 0.01) was recorded with rate of stomatal conductance and transpiration rate of the varieties. The present study reveals a strong relationship between plant biomass (p < 0.01) with GWP and CEE of the rice varieties. The variety IR 64 and Number 9 are identified as the most suitable variety with lowest GWP (909.85 and 876.68 kg CO2-equiv. ha-1 respectively) and GHGI (0.192 and 0.227 kg CO2-equiv. kg-1 grain yield respectively) accompanied by higher grain productivity (4839 and 3867 kg ha-1 respectively). Observations from the study suggest that agricultural productivity and GHG mitigation can be simultaneously achieved by proper selection of rice genotypes.}, }
@article {pmid30976790, year = {2019}, author = {Semenza, JC and Ebi, KL}, title = {Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry: Implications for public health.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jtm/taz026}, pmid = {30976790}, issn = {1708-8305}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is not only increasing ambient temperature, but is also accelerating the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy precipitation and droughts, and causing sea level rise, which can lead to population displacement. Climate change-related reductions in land productivity and habitability and in food and water security can also interact with demographic, economic, and social factors to increase migration. In addition to migration, climate change has also implications for travel and the risk of disease. This article discusses the impact of climate change on migration and travel with implications for public health practice.<br><br>METHODS: Literature review.<br><br>RESULTS: Migrants may be at increased risk of communicable and non-communicable diseases, due to factors in their country of origin, their country of destination or conditions they experience during migration. Although migration has not been a significant driver of communicable disease outbreaks to date, public health authorities need to ensure that effective screening and vaccination programmes for priority communicable diseases are in place.Population growth coupled with socio-economic development is increasing travel and tourism, and advances in technology have increased global connectivity and reduced the time required to cover long distances. At the same time, as a result of climate change, many temperate regions, including high-income countries, are now suitable for vector-borne disease transmission. This is providing opportunities for importation of vectors and pathogens from endemic areas that can lead to cases or outbreaks of communicable diseases with which health professionals may be unfamiliar.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Health systems need to be prepared for the potential population health consequences of migration, travel and tourism and the impact of climate change on these. Integrated surveillance, early detection of cases and other public health interventions are critical to protect population health and prevent and control communicable disease outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid30972111, year = {2018}, author = {Nolte, CG and Spero, TL and Bowden, JH and Mallard, MS and Dolwick, PD}, title = {The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous U.S. at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways.}, journal = {Atmospheric chemistry and physics}, volume = {18}, number = {20}, pages = {15471-15489}, doi = {10.5194/acp-18-15471-2018}, pmid = {30972111}, issn = {1680-7316}, abstract = {The potential impacts of climate change on regional ozone (O3) and fine particulate (PM2.5) air quality in the United States are investigated by linking global climate simulations with regional scale meteorological and chemical transport models. Regional climate at 2000 and at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale 11-year time slices from the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The downscaled meteorology is then used with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate air quality during each of these 11-year periods. The analysis isolates the future air quality differences arising from climate-driven changes in meteorological parameters and specific natural emissions sources that are strongly influenced by meteorology. Other factors that will affect future air quality, such as anthropogenic air pollutant emissions and chemical boundary conditions, are unchanged across the simulations. The regional climate fields represent historical daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures well, with mean biases less than 2 K for most regions of the U.S. and most seasons of the year and good representation of variability. Precipitation in the central and eastern U.S. is well simulated for the historical period, with seasonal and annual biases generally less than 25%, with positive biases exceeding 25% in the western U.S. throughout the year and in part of the eastern U.S. during summer. Maximum daily 8-h ozone (MDA8 O3) is projected to increase during summer and autumn in the central and eastern U.S. The increase in summer mean MDA8 O3 is largest under RCP8.5, exceeding 4 ppb in some locations, with smaller seasonal mean increases of up to 2 ppb simulated during autumn and changes during spring generally less than 1 ppb. Increases are magnified at the upper end of the O3 distribution, particularly where projected increases in temperature are greater. Annual average PM2.5 concentration changes range from -1.0 to 1.0 μg m-3. Organic PM2.5 concentrations increase during summer and autumn due to increased biogenic emissions. Aerosol nitrate decreases during winter, accompanied by lesser decreases in ammonium and sulfate, due to warmer temperatures causing increased partitioning to the gas phase. Among meteorological factors examined to account for modeled changes in pollution, temperature and isoprene emissions are found to have the largest changes and the greatest impact on O3 concentrations.}, }
@article {pmid30973922, year = {2019}, author = {Miranda, LS and Imperatriz-Fonseca, VL and Giannini, TC}, title = {Climate change impact on ecosystem functions provided by birds in southeastern Amazonia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0215229}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0215229}, pmid = {30973922}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Although the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are increasing worldwide, few studies have attempted to forecast these impacts on Amazon Tropical Forest. In this study, we estimated the impact of climate change on Amazonian avian assemblages considering range shifts, species loss, vulnerability of ecosystem functioning, future effectiveness of current protected areas and potential climatically stable areas for conservation actions. Species distribution modelling based on two algorithms and three different scenarios of climate change was used to forecast 501 avian species, organized on main ecosystem functions (frugivores, insectivores and nectarivores) for years 2050 and 2070. Considering the entire study area, we estimated that between 4 and 19% of the species will find no suitable habitat. Inside the currently established protected areas, species loss could be over 70%. Our results suggest that frugivores are the most sensitive guild, which could bring consequences on seed dispersal functions and on natural regeneration. Moreover, we identified the western and northern parts of the study area as climatically stable. Climate change will potentially affect avian assemblages in southeastern Amazonia with detrimental consequences to their ecosystem functions. Information provided here is essential to conservation practitioners and decision makers to help on planning their actions.}, }
@article {pmid30972894, year = {2019}, author = {McNicol, L}, title = {It is time to protect our children from climate change with a national school-based heatwave policy.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {290-291}, doi = {10.1002/hpja.170}, pmid = {30972894}, issn = {1036-1073}, }
@article {pmid30971717, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, R and Liang, T and Guo, J and Xie, H and Feng, Q and Aimaiti, Y}, title = {Publisher Correction: Grassland dynamics in response to climate change and human activities in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2014.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {6181}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-41390-z}, pmid = {30971717}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.}, }
@article {pmid30970482, year = {2019}, author = {Shen, X and Liu, B and Xue, Z and Jiang, M and Lu, X and Zhang, Q}, title = {Spatiotemporal variation in vegetation spring phenology and its response to climate change in freshwater marshes of Northeast China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {666}, number = {}, pages = {1169-1177}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.265}, pmid = {30970482}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding wetland vegetation phenology and its response to climate change is important to predict the changes of wetland vegetation in wetland regions. Using the NDVI and climate data, this work studied the spatiotemporal change of start date of vegetation growing season (SOS) and explored the possible effects of climate change on the SOS over freshwater marshes of Northeast China. The results showed that the SOS significantly advanced by 0.52 day per year throughout the freshwater marshes of Northeast China during 2001 to 2016. The significant advancing of SOS was mainly concentrated in freshwater marshes of the Khingan Mountains (the Greater Khingan Mountains and the Lesser Khingan Mountains) and central arid or semi-arid regions (Songnen plain and Liaohe plain) in Northeast China. By contrast, there were weak delay trends of SOS in freshwater marshes of Eastern Inner Mongolia region, and Sanjiang plain. We found that precipitation was a dominant factor determining the SOS in arid or semi-arid regions (Songnen plain and Liaohe plain), while temperature played a bigger role in determining the SOS in Sanjiang plain and three cold mountains of the Northeast China. During the study period, increasing precipitation in the winter and spring contributed to advancing SOS in Songnen plain and Liaohe plain; the decrease of temperature from December to April explain the delaying SOS in freshwater marshes of Sanjiang Plain; the weak warming of temperature between November and May account for the advancing SOS of freshwater marshes in three cold mountains. In freshwater marshes of cold and the most arid region of Northeast China (Eastern Inner Mongolia), the SOS was influenced by both precipitation and temperature. Decreasing precipitation between January and April, as well as temperature decreases in March and April explain the delay of SOS in freshwater marshes of Eastern Inner Mongolia region.}, }
@article {pmid30968450, year = {2019}, author = {Schachtel, A and Boos, MD}, title = {Pediatric dermatology and climate change: An argument for the pediatric subspecialist as public health advocate.}, journal = {Pediatric dermatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/pde.13819}, pmid = {30968450}, issn = {1525-1470}, abstract = {The October 2018 report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts significant threats to human health secondary to anthropogenic global warming; children have been and will continue to be disproportionately affected by these weather-related changes. Multiple physician groups have acknowledged climate change as a public health issue, calling upon providers to educate their communities about this looming health crisis while also reducing their individual carbon footprints. A significant body of literature has also documented the adverse dermatologic consequences of a warmer planet, highlighting the importance of pediatric dermatologists in addressing climate change. Here, we summarize the rationale for the pediatric dermatologist as public health advocate, providing specific actionable items through which our specialty can positively address the climate change crisis and in turn protect the health of our patients now and in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30966984, year = {2019}, author = {Taccoen, A and Piedallu, C and Seynave, I and Perez, V and Gégout-Petit, A and Nageleisen, LM and Bontemps, JD and Gégout, JC}, title = {Background mortality drivers of European tree species: climate change matters.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1900}, pages = {20190386}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2019.0386}, pmid = {30966984}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {Increases in tree mortality rates have been highlighted in different biomes over the past decades. However, disentangling the effects of climate change on the temporal increase in tree mortality from those of management and forest dynamics remains a challenge. Using a modelling approach taking tree and stand characteristics into account, we sought to evaluate the impact of climate change on background mortality for the most common European tree species. We focused on background mortality, which is the mortality observed in a stand in the absence of abrupt disturbances, to avoid confusion with mortality events unrelated to long-term changes in temperature and rainfall. We studied 372 974 trees including 7312 dead trees from forest inventory data surveyed across France between 2009 and 2015. Factors related to competition, stand characteristics, management intensity, and site conditions were the expected preponderant drivers of mortality. Taking these main drivers into account, we detected a climate change signal on 45% of the 43 studied species, explaining an average 6% of the total modelled mortality. For 18 out of the 19 species sensitive to climate change, we evidenced greater mortality with increasing temperature or decreasing rainfall. By quantifying the mortality excess linked to the current climate change for European temperate forest tree species, we provide new insights into forest vulnerability that will prove useful for adapting forest management to future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30966963, year = {2019}, author = {Kelly, M}, title = {Adaptation to climate change through genetic accommodation and assimilation of plastic phenotypes.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1768}, pages = {20180176}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0176}, pmid = {30966963}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Theory suggests that evolutionary changes in phenotypic plasticity could either hinder or facilitate evolutionary rescue in a changing climate. Nevertheless, the actual role of evolving plasticity in the responses of natural populations to climate change remains unresolved. Direct observations of evolutionary change in nature are rare, making it difficult to assess the relative contributions of changes in trait means versus changes in plasticity to climate change responses. To address this gap, this review explores several proxies that can be used to understand evolving plasticity in the context of climate change, including space for time substitutions, experimental evolution and tests for genomic divergence at environmentally responsive loci. Comparisons among populations indicate a prominent role for divergence in environmentally responsive traits in local adaptation to climatic gradients. Moreover, genomic comparisons among such populations have identified pervasive divergence in the regulatory regions of environmentally responsive loci. Taken together, these lines of evidence suggest that divergence in plasticity plays a prominent role in adaptation to climatic gradients over space, indicating that evolving plasticity is also likely to play a key role in adaptive responses to climate change through time. This suggests that genetic variation in plastic responses to the environment (G × E) might be an important predictor of species' vulnerabilities to climate-driven decline or extinction. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.}, }
@article {pmid30966960, year = {2019}, author = {Fuxjäger, L and Wanzenböck, S and Ringler, E and Wegner, KM and Ahnelt, H and Shama, LNS}, title = {Within-generation and transgenerational plasticity of mate choice in oceanic stickleback under climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1768}, pages = {20180183}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0183}, pmid = {30966960}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Plasticity, both within and across generations, can shape sexual traits involved in mate choice and reproductive success, and thus direct measures of fitness. Especially, transgenerational plasticity (TGP), where parental environment influences offspring plasticity in future environments, could compensate for otherwise negative effects of environmental change on offspring sexual traits. We conducted a mate choice experiment using stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) with different thermal histories (ambient 17°C or elevated 21°C) within and across generations under simulated ocean warming using outdoor mesocosms. Parentage analysis of egg clutches revealed that maternal developmental temperature and reproductive (mesocosm) environment affected egg size, with females that developed at 17°C laying smaller eggs in 21°C mesocosms, likely owing to metabolic costs at elevated temperature. Paternal developmental temperature interacted with the reproductive environment to influence mating success, particularly under simulated ocean warming, with males that developed at 21°C showing lower overall mating success compared with 17°C males, but higher mating success in 21°C mesocosms. Furthermore, mating success of males was influenced by the interaction between F1 developmental temperature and F0 parent acclimation temperature, demonstrating the potential role of both TGP and within-generation plasticity in shaping traits involved in sexual selection and mate choice, potentially facilitating rapid responses to environmental change. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.}, }
@article {pmid30966957, year = {2019}, author = {Bonamour, S and Chevin, LM and Charmantier, A and Teplitsky, C}, title = {Phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change: the importance of cue variation.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1768}, pages = {20180178}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0178}, pmid = {30966957}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Phenotypic plasticity is a major mechanism of response to global change. However, current plastic responses will only remain adaptive under future conditions if informative environmental cues are still available. We briefly summarize current knowledge of the evolutionary origin and mechanistic underpinnings of environmental cues for phenotypic plasticity, before highlighting the potentially complex effects of global change on cue availability and reliability. We then illustrate some of these aspects with a case study, comparing plasticity of blue tit breeding phenology in two contrasted habitats: evergreen and deciduous forests. Using long-term datasets, we investigate the climatic factors linked to the breeding phenology of the birds and their main food source. Blue tits occupying different habitats differ extensively in the cues affecting laying date plasticity, as well as in the reliability of these cues as predictors of the putative driver of selective pressure, the date of caterpillar peak. The temporal trend for earlier laying date, detected only in the evergreen populations, is explained by increased temperature during their cue windows. Our results highlight the importance of integrating ecological mechanisms shaping variation in plasticity if we are to understand how global change will affect plasticity and its consequences for population biology. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.}, }
@article {pmid30965264, year = {2019}, author = {Pires, JCM}, title = {Negative emissions technologies: A complementary solution for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {672}, number = {}, pages = {502-514}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.004}, pmid = {30965264}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas (GHG) and its atmospheric concentration is currently 50% higher than pre-industrial levels. The continuous GHGs emissions may lead to severe and irreversible consequences in the climate system. The reduction of GHG emissions may be not enough to mitigate climate change. Consequently, besides carbon capture from large emission sources, atmospheric CO2 capture may be also required. To meet the target defined for climate change mitigation, the removal of 10 Gt·yr-1 of CO2 globally by mid-century and 20 Gt·yr-1 of CO2 globally by the end of century. The technologies applied with this aim are known as negative emission technologies (NETs), as they lead to achieve a negative balance of carbon in atmosphere. This paper aims to present the recent research works regarding NETs, focusing the research findings achieved by academic groups and projects. Besides several advantages, NETs present high operational cost and its scale-up should be tested to know the real effect on climate change mitigation. With current knowledge, no single process should be seen as a solution. Research efforts should be performed to evaluate and reduce NETs costs and environmental impact.}, }
@article {pmid30964399, year = {2019}, author = {Jones, R}, title = {Climate change and Indigenous Health Promotion.}, journal = {Global health promotion}, volume = {26}, number = {3_suppl}, pages = {73-81}, doi = {10.1177/1757975919829713}, pmid = {30964399}, issn = {1757-9767}, abstract = {Climate change poses a serious threat to the health and well-being of Indigenous peoples around the world. Despite living in diverse contexts, Indigenous peoples face a number of common challenges. Disproportionate threats from climate change exist due to a range of factors including unique relationships with the natural environment, socioeconomic deprivation, a greater existing burden of disease, poorer access to and quality of health care, and political marginalization. Responses to climate change at global, national, and local levels also threaten Indigenous people's rights. While climate action presents many opportunities to improve health and reduce inequities, there is also significant potential for climate mitigation and adaptation policies to inflict harm on Indigenous peoples. An important aspect of this is the impact on traditional lands, which are acknowledged as a fundamental determinant of Indigenous health and well-being. This article seeks to elucidate the relationships between climate change and Indigenous health and to inform health promotion solutions to achieve climate justice for Indigenous peoples. The underpinning analysis is founded on a Kaupapa Māori positioning, which seeks transformative change and involves critiquing Western knowledges and structures that undermine Indigenous rights. A central theme is that anthropogenic climate change is intimately connected to the ideologies, systems and practices of colonialism, and that the impacts on Indigenous peoples can be conceptualized as an intensification of the process of colonization. It is not possible to understand and address climate-related health impacts for Indigenous peoples without examining this broader context of colonial oppression, marginalization and dispossession. The challenge for health promotion is to engage in a process of decolonization. This involves deconstructing its own systems and practices to avoid reinforcing colonialism and perpetuating inequities. It also requires health promotion practitioners to support Indigenous self-determination and recognize Indigenous knowledges as a critical foundation for climate change and health solutions.}, }
@article {pmid30963929, year = {2019}, author = {Qiu, Z and Coleman, MA and Provost, E and Campbell, AH and Kelaher, BP and Dalton, SJ and Thomas, T and Steinberg, PD and Marzinelli, EM}, title = {Future climate change is predicted to affect the microbiome and condition of habitat-forming kelp.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1896}, pages = {20181887}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2018.1887}, pmid = {30963929}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {Climate change is driving global declines of marine habitat-forming species through physiological effects and through changes to ecological interactions, with projected trajectories for ocean warming and acidification likely to exacerbate such impacts in coming decades. Interactions between habitat-formers and their microbiomes are fundamental for host functioning and resilience, but how such relationships will change in future conditions is largely unknown. We investigated independent and interactive effects of warming and acidification on a large brown seaweed, the kelp Ecklonia radiata, and its associated microbiome in experimental mesocosms. Microbial communities were affected by warming and, during the first week, by acidification. During the second week, kelp developed disease-like symptoms previously observed in the field. The tissue of some kelp blistered, bleached and eventually degraded, particularly under the acidification treatments, affecting photosynthetic efficiency. Microbial communities differed between blistered and healthy kelp for all treatments, except for those under future conditions of warming and acidification, which after two weeks resembled assemblages associated with healthy hosts. This indicates that changes in the microbiome were not easily predictable as the severity of future climate scenarios increased. Future ocean conditions can change kelp microbiomes and may lead to host disease, with potentially cascading impacts on associated ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30962890, year = {2019}, author = {Zhu, RB and Wang, Q and Guan, WB and Mao, Y and Tian, B and Cheng, JM and El-Kassaby, YA}, title = {Conservation of genetic diversity hotspots of the high-valued relic yellowhorn (Xanthoceras sorbifolium) considering climate change predictions.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {3251-3263}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4944}, pmid = {30962890}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Genetic structure and major climate factors may contribute to the distribution of genetic diversity of a highly valued oil tree species Xanthoceras sorbifolium (yellowhorn). Long-term over utilization along with climate change is affecting the viability of yellowhorn wild populations. To preserve the species known and unknown valuable gene pools, the identification of genetic diversity &quot;hotspots&quot; is a prerequisite for their consideration as in situ conservation high priority. Chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) diversity was high among 38 natural populations (Hd = 0.717, K = 4.616, Tajmas' D = -0.22) and characterized by high genetic divergence (FST = 0.765) and relatively low gene flow (Nm = 0.03), indicating populations isolation reflecting the species' habitat fragmentation and inbreeding depression. Six out of the studied 38 populations are defined as genetic diversity &quot;hotspots.&quot; The number and geographic direction of cpDNA mutation steps supported the species southwest to northeast migration history. Climatic factors such as extreme minimum temperature over 30 years indicated that the identified genetic &quot;hotspots&quot; are expected to experience 5°C temperature increase in next following 50 years. The results identified vulnerable genetic diversity &quot;hotspots&quot; and provided fundamental information for the species' future conservation and breeding activities under the anticipated climate change. More specifically, the role of breeding as a component of a gene resource management strategy aimed at fulfilling both utilization and conservation goals.}, }
@article {pmid30962375, year = {2019}, author = {Ballew, MT and Goldberg, MH and Rosenthal, SA and Gustafson, A and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Systems thinking as a pathway to global warming beliefs and attitudes through an ecological worldview.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1819310116}, pmid = {30962375}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Prior research has found that systems thinking, the tendency to perceive phenomena as interconnected and dynamic, is associated with a general proenvironmental orientation. However, less is known about its relationship with public understanding of climate change and/or whether this relationship varies across people with different political views. Because climate change is a highly politicized issue, it is also important to understand the extent to which systems thinking can foster acceptance of climate science across political lines. Using an online sample of US adults (n = 1,058), we tested the degree to which systems thinking predicts global warming beliefs and attitudes (e.g., believing that global warming is happening, that it is human-caused, etc.), independent of an ecological worldview (i.e., the New Ecological Paradigm). We found that although systems thinking is positively related to global warming beliefs and attitudes, the relationships are almost fully explained by an ecological worldview. Indirect effects of systems thinking are consistently strong across political ideologies and party affiliations, although slightly stronger for conservatives and Republicans than for liberals and Democrats, respectively. We did not find evidence of the converse: Systems thinking does not seem to mediate the relationship between an ecological worldview and global warming beliefs and attitudes. Together, these findings suggest that systems thinking may support the adoption of global warming beliefs and attitudes indirectly by helping to develop an ecological ethic that people should take care of and not abuse the environment.}, }
@article {pmid30962202, year = {2019}, author = {Mercer, C}, title = {How health care contributes to climate change.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {191}, number = {14}, pages = {E403-E404}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-5722}, pmid = {30962202}, issn = {1488-2329}, }
@article {pmid30956938, year = {2018}, author = {Woollings, T and Barriopedro, D and Methven, J and Son, SW and Martius, O and Harvey, B and Sillmann, J and Lupo, AR and Seneviratne, S}, title = {Blocking and its Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Current climate change reports}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {287-300}, doi = {10.1007/s40641-018-0108-z}, pmid = {30956938}, issn = {2198-6061}, abstract = {Purpose of Review: Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding blocking under climate change, with the aim of providing an overview for those working in related fields.<br><br>Recent Findings: Several avenues have been identified by which blocking can be improved in numerical models, though a fully reliable simulation remains elusive (at least, beyond a few days lead time). Models are therefore starting to provide some useful information on how blocking and its impacts may change in the future, although deeper understanding of the processes at play will be needed to increase confidence in model projections. There are still major uncertainties regarding the processes most important to the onset, maintenance and decay of blocking and advances in our understanding of atmospheric dynamics, for example in the role of diabatic processes, continue to inform the modelling and prediction efforts.<br><br>Summary: The term 'blocking' covers a diverse array of synoptic patterns, and hence a bewildering range of indices has been developed to identify events. Results are hence not considered fully trustworthy until they have been found using several different methods. Examples of such robust results are the underestimation of blocking by models, and an overall decline in future occurrence, albeit with a complex regional and seasonal variation. In contrast, hemispheric trends in blocking over the recent historical period are not supported by different methods, and natural variability will likely dominate regional variations over the next few decades.}, }
@article {pmid30959295, year = {2019}, author = {Abd-Elaty, I and Sallam, GAH and Straface, S and Scozzari, A}, title = {Effects of climate change on the design of subsurface drainage systems in coastal aquifers in arid/semi-arid regions: Case study of the Nile delta.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {672}, number = {}, pages = {283-295}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.483}, pmid = {30959295}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The influence of climate change on the availability and quality of both surface- and ground-water resources is well recognized nowadays. In particular, the mitigation of saline water intrusion mechanisms in coastal aquifers is a recurrent environmental issue. In the case of the Nile delta, the presence of sea level rise and the perspective of other human-induced stressors, such as the next operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, are threats to be taken into account for guaranteeing resilient agricultural practices within the future possible scenarios. Subsurface drainage offers a practical solution to the problem of upward artesian water movement and the simultaneous downward flow of excess irrigation water, to mitigate the salinization in the root zone. Subsurface draining systems can contribute to mitigate the vulnerability to climate change and to the increased anthropic pressure insofar they are able to receive the incremented flow rate due to the foreseen scenarios of sea level rise, recharge and subsidence. This paper introduces a rational design of subsurface drainage systems in coastal aquifers, taking into account the increment of flow in the draining pipes due to future possible conditions of sea level rise, artificial recharge and subsidence within time horizons that are compatible with the expected lifespan of a buried drainage system. The approach proposed in this paper is characterized by the assessment of the incremental flow through the drains as a function of various possible scenarios at different time horizons. Our calculations show that the impact on the discharge into the existing subsurface drainage system under the new foreseen conditions is anything but negligible. Thus, future climate-related scenarios deeply impact the design of such hydraulic structures, and must be taken into account in the frame of the next water management strategies for safeguarding agricultural activities in the Nile delta and in similar coastal contexts.}, }
@article {pmid30958243, year = {2018}, author = {Meade, J and VanDerWal, J and Storlie, C and Williams, S and Gourret, A and Krockenberger, A and Welbergen, JA}, title = {Substantial reduction in thermo-suitable microhabitat for a rainforest marsupial under climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {20180189}, doi = {10.1098/rsbl.2018.0189}, pmid = {30958243}, issn = {1744-957X}, abstract = {Increases in mean temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change increase the frequency and severity of temperature extremes. Although extreme temperature events are likely to become increasingly important drivers of species' response to climate change, the impacts are poorly understood owing mainly to a lack of understanding of species' physiological responses to extreme temperatures. The physiological response of Pseudochirops archeri (green ringtail possum) to temperature extremes has been well studied, demonstrating that heterothermy is used to reduce evaporative water loss at temperatures greater than 30°C. Dehydration is likely to limit survival when animals are exposed to a critical thermal regime of ≥30°C, for ≥5 h, for ≥4 consecutive days. In this study, we use this physiological information to assess P. archeri's vulnerability to climate change. We identify areas of current thermo-suitable habitat (validated using sightings), then estimate future thermo-suitable habitat for P. archeri, under four emission scenarios. Our projections indicate that up to 86% of thermo-suitable habitat could be lost by 2085, a serious conservation concern for the species. We demonstrate the potential applicability of our approach for generating spatio-temporally explicit predictions of the vulnerability of species to extreme temperature events, providing a focus for efficient and targeted conservation and habitat restoration management.}, }
@article {pmid30956567, year = {2019}, author = {Holman, IP and Brown, C and Carter, TR and Harrison, PA and Rounsevell, M}, title = {Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {711-721}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-018-1328-4}, pmid = {30956567}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of climate change adaptation, and the ways in which representation of adaptation in models can be improved. The review shows that real-world adaptive responses can be differentiated along a number of dimensions including intent or purpose, timescale, spatial scale, beneficiaries and providers, type of action, and sector. However, models of climate change consequences for land use and water management currently provide poor coverage of these dimensions, instead modelling adaptation in an artificial and subjective manner. While different modelling approaches do capture distinct aspects of the adaptive process, they have done so in relative isolation, without producing improved unified representations. Furthermore, adaptation is often assumed to be objective, effective and consistent through time, with only a minority of models taking account of the human decisions underpinning the choice of adaptation measures (14%), the triggers that motivate actions (38%) or the time-lags and constraints that may limit their uptake and effectiveness (14%). No models included adaptation to take advantage of beneficial opportunities of climate change. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future model development that may enhance realism within models, while also advancing our understanding of the processes and effectiveness of adaptation to a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid30954727, year = {2019}, author = {Ashrafuzzaman, M and Furini, GL}, title = {Climate change and human health linkages in the context of globalization: An overview from global to southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {127}, number = {}, pages = {402-411}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.03.020}, pmid = {30954727}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {This article attempts to analyze the main impacts of climate change on public health starting with global and going through local by analyzing coastal communities in the area of influence of Sundarbans, located in southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. In dealing with paramount health problems caused by climate change, we discuss what are the major challenges faced by different actors. From the opinion of globalization and world system theory it will be argued that developing countries are facing major defiance in terms of mitigation and adaptation, including human health problems. Those living in developing world, as the case of Bangladesh, responsible for the lowest contributions to climate change, are already suffering the most. This paper is based on bibliographical and statistical review, and uses primary data collected from field and secondary from publications, books, scientific journals, international reports. In this paper we also focused that poor countries shall not be liable for the damages caused by carbon emissions already trapped into atmosphere, a historic problem caused by developed world, so we expect that multi-governance platforms should make mutual efforts to promote health in partnership with local institutions in order to solve the climatic crisis.}, }
@article {pmid30949718, year = {2019}, author = {Herrmann, A and de Jong, L and Kowalski, C and Sauerborn, R}, title = {[Health Co-benefits of climate change mitigation measures-how houeseholds and policy makers can benefit].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02929-7}, pmid = {30949718}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {In discussions on climate change and health, negative impacts of climate change usually dominate the discussion. However to motivate households and policy makers to climate action, one should also point out the health opportunities of climate change mitigation measures.We draw on the current literature to present the concept of health co-benefits of climate change mitigation measures (A). In the empirical part of the paper we first use a quantitative and qualitative text analysis to look at the link of climate change and health in EU legislation from 1990-2015 (B). We then describe results from qualitative in-depth interviews with 18 German households, in which we investigate how knowledge of health co-benefits influences households in implementing climate action. The interviews were part of a bigger European mixed-methods study.A: From the household perspective, we define direct health co-benefits, which can be influenced and experienced by an individual, and indirect health co-benefits, which are dependent on societal action. B: Health is mentioned in EU climate change legislation. However, EU legislation only touches upon health co-benefits in general and doesn't mention direct health co-benefits at all. C: Households consider health co-benefits in their lifestyle decisions. Yet, as there are many determinants of lifestyle, information on health co-benefits alone does not seem to be sufficient to trigger climate friendly and healthy behavior.First, synergies between health and climate change mitigation need to be recognized on a political level. Then, effective intersectoral policies need to be implemented to support households on multiple levels in implementing healthy and climate-friendly lifestyles.}, }
@article {pmid30947054, year = {2019}, author = {Naujokienė, V and Šarauskis, E and Bleizgys, R and Sasnauskienė, J}, title = {Soil biotreatment effectiveness for reducing global warming potential from main polluting tillage operations in life cycle assessment phase.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {671}, number = {}, pages = {805-817}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.338}, pmid = {30947054}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In order to reduce global warming potential (GWP) due to anthropogenic and natural factors in the cultivation of winter wheat and rapeseed, proved effectiveness of soil biotreatment with different composition of bio-solutions. It was reduced greenhouse gases (GHG) through life cycle impact categories from the main polluting agricultural operations on deeply lukewarm soaked soil. According to the impact diapason evaluated the main indicators such as human toxicity air (HTA), ecotoxicity water chronic (EWC), global warming potential, ecotoxicity water acute (EWA), ozone formation (OF), human toxicity water (HTW), ecotoxicity soil chronic (ESC), human toxicity soil (HTS), terrestrial eutrophication (TE), acidification (A). Assessed researches for three seasons which carried out in production experimental areas. It was appreciated in interrelated stages according to LST EN ISO 14040:2007 standard. Mass balance for one functional unit (FU) was tonne of wheat and rapeseed. SimaPro 8.05 life cycle assessment (LCA) Software was used for comparing soil biotreatment efectiveness using different bio-solutions and its mixes with control. The aim of the assessment - to prove the soil biotreatment effectiveness for reducing main life cycle indicators from tillage operations. It was identificated that phase of field operation is one of the main factor to the global impact. Disc harrowing consists approximately 26%, ploughing - 40% of all operations. Identified effectiveness of soil biotreatment, wheat and rapeseed rotation for reduction of global warming potential. Discovered reduction interdependencies of main life cycle assessement impact categories. The largest CO2 eq reducing established from primary - disc harrowing 12-15 cm and secondary - ploughing 23-25 cm soil tillage. It was fixed till approximately 15% in mixed bacterial and non-bacterial bio-solution after first soil biotreatment. Till approximately 8% CO2 eq reduction was in mixed bio-solutions after second biotreatment. The percentage highest soil biotreatment effectiveness till approximately 30% assessed after third biotreatment compared to usual technology. Soil biotreatment effectiveness in reducing green house gases (GHG) proved first year in 86%, second year in 43%, and third year in 71% of all used bio-solutions.}, }
@article {pmid30946811, year = {2019}, author = {Cissé, G}, title = {Food-borne and water-borne diseases under climate change in low- and middle-income countries: further efforts needed for reducing environmental health exposure risks.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2019.03.012}, pmid = {30946811}, issn = {1873-6254}, abstract = {This paper provides a view of the major facts and figures related to infectious diseases with a focus on food-borne and water-borne diseases and their link with environmental factors and climate change. The global burden of food-borne diseases for 31 selected hazards was estimated by the World Health Organization at 33 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2010 with 40% of this burden concentrated among children under 5 years of age. The highest burden per population of food-borne diseases is found in Africa, followed by Southeast Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean sub-regions. Unsafe water used for the cleaning and processing of food is a key risk factors contributing to food-borne diseases. The role of quality and quantity of water to the general burden of infectious diseases deserves attention, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, as its effects go beyond the food chain. Water-related infectious diseases are a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, and climate change effects will exacerbate the challenges for the public health sector for both food-borne and water-borne diseases. Selected case studies from Africa and Asia show that (i) climate change extreme events, such as floods, may exacerbate the risks for infectious diseases spreading through water systems, and (ii) improvements related to drinking water, sanitation and hygiene could result in a significant reduction of intestinal parasitic infections among school-aged children. There is a need to better anticipate the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases and fostering multi-stakeholder engagement and multi-sectoral collaborations for integrated interventions at schools, community and household levels. The paper calls for giving priority to improving the environmental conditions affecting food-borne and water-borne infectious diseases under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30944502, year = {2019}, author = {Clay, N and King, B}, title = {Smallholders' uneven capacities to adapt to climate change amid Africa's 'green revolution': Case study of Rwanda's crop intensification program.}, journal = {World development}, volume = {116}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.11.022}, pmid = {30944502}, issn = {0305-750X}, abstract = {Development programs and policies can influence smallholder producers' abilities to adapt to climate change. However, gaps remain in understanding how households' adaptive capacities can become uneven. This paper investigates how development transitions-such as the recent adoption of 'green revolution' agricultural policies throughout sub-Saharan Africa-intersect with cross-scale social-environmental processes to unevenly shape smallholders' adaptive capacities and adaptation pathways. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative material from a multi-season study in Rwanda, we investigate smallholder adaptation processes amid a suite of rural development interventions. Our study finds that adaptive capacities arise differentially across livelihood groups in the context of evolving environmental, social, and political economic processes. We show how social institutions play key roles in shaping differential adaptation pathways by enabling and/or constraining opportunities for smallholders to adapt livelihood and land use strategies. Specifically, Rwanda's Crop Intensification Program enables some wealthier households to adapt livelihoods by generating income through commercial agriculture. At the same time, deactivation of local risk management institutions has diminished climate risk management options for most households. To build and employ alternate livelihood practices such as commercial agriculture and planting woodlots for charcoal production, smallholders must negotiate new institutions, a prerequisite for which is access to capitals (land, labor, and nonfarm income). Those without entitlements to these are pulled deeper into poverty with each successive climatic shock. This illustrates that adaptive capacity is not a static, quantifiable entity that exists in households. We argue that reconceptualizing adaptive capacity as a dynamic, social-environmental process that emerges in places can help clarify complex linkages among development policies, livelihoods, and adaptation pathways. To ensure more equitable and climate-resilient agricultural development, we stress the need to reformulate policies with careful attention to how power structures and entrenched social inequalities can lead to smallholders' uneven capacities to adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30944475, year = {2019}, author = {Hughes, TP and Kerry, JT and Baird, AH and Connolly, SR and Chase, TJ and Dietzel, A and Hill, T and Hoey, AS and Hoogenboom, MO and Jacobson, M and Kerswell, A and Madin, JS and Mieog, A and Paley, AS and Pratchett, MS and Torda, G and Woods, RM}, title = {Global warming impairs stock-recruitment dynamics of corals.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1081-y}, pmid = {30944475}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Changes in disturbance regimes due to climate change are increasingly challenging the capacity of ecosystems to absorb recurrent shocks and reassemble afterwards, escalating the risk of widespread ecological collapse of current ecosystems and the emergence of novel assemblages1-3. In marine systems, the production of larvae and recruitment of functionally important species are fundamental processes for rebuilding depleted adult populations, maintaining resilience and avoiding regime shifts in the face of rising environmental pressures4,5. Here we document a regional-scale shift in stock-recruitment relationships of corals along the Great Barrier Reef-the world's largest coral reef system-following unprecedented back-to-back mass bleaching events caused by global warming. As a consequence of mass mortality of adult brood stock in 2016 and 2017 owing to heat stress6, the amount of larval recruitment declined in 2018 by 89% compared to historical levels. For the first time, brooding pocilloporids replaced spawning acroporids as the dominant taxon in the depleted recruitment pool. The collapse in stock-recruitment relationships indicates that the low resistance of adult brood stocks to repeated episodes of coral bleaching is inexorably tied to an impaired capacity for recovery, which highlights the multifaceted processes that underlie the global decline of coral reefs. The extent to which the Great Barrier Reef will be able to recover from the collapse in stock-recruitment relationships remains uncertain, given the projected increased frequency of extreme climate events over the next two decades7.}, }
@article {pmid30940812, year = {2019}, author = {Kou-Giesbrecht, S and Menge, D}, title = {Nitrogen-fixing trees could exacerbate climate change under elevated nitrogen deposition.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1493}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09424-2}, pmid = {30940812}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Biological nitrogen fixation can fuel CO2 sequestration by forests but can also stimulate soil emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas. Here we use a theoretical model to suggest that symbiotic nitrogen-fixing trees could either mitigate (CO2 sequestration outweighs soil N2O emissions) or exacerbate (vice versa) climate change relative to non-fixing trees, depending on their nitrogen fixation strategy (the degree to which they regulate nitrogen fixation to balance nitrogen supply and demand) and on nitrogen deposition. The model posits that nitrogen-fixing trees could exacerbate climate change globally relative to non-fixing trees by the radiative equivalent of 0.77 Pg C yr-1 under nitrogen deposition rates projected for 2030. This value is highly uncertain, but its magnitude suggests that this subject requires further study and that improving the representation of biological nitrogen fixation in climate models could substantially decrease estimates of the extent to which forests will mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30936173, year = {2019}, author = {Vogel, L}, title = {Why aren't more doctors talking about climate change?.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {191}, number = {13}, pages = {E375-E376}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-5731}, pmid = {30936173}, issn = {1488-2329}, }
@article {pmid30934119, year = {2019}, author = {Salick, J and Fang, Z and Hart, R}, title = {Rapid changes in eastern Himalayan alpine flora with climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.1263}, pmid = {30934119}, issn = {1537-2197}, support = {IGERT DGE#0549369//National Geographic Society/ ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: With biodiversity and rates of climate change among the highest, the eastern Himalaya are critical for understanding the interaction of these two variables. However, there is a dearth of longitudinal data sets that address the effects of climate change on the exceptional alpine biodiversity of the Himalaya.<br><br>METHODS: We established permanent alpine vegetation monitoring plots in three mountain chains of the Hengduan Mountains, the easternmost Himalaya, which have warmed 0.03-0.05°C yr-1 since 1985. Recently, we resampled plots (176 1-m2 quadrat plots and 88 sections of 11 summits in three Hengduan mountain chains) to measure changes in vegetation after 7 years.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Over 7 years, Tibetan alpine vegetation increased in number of species (+8 species/summit; +2.3 species/m2), in frequency (+47.8 plants/m2), and in diversity (+1.6 effective species/m2). Stepwise regressions indicated that warmer temperatures, southerly aspects, and higher elevations were associated with greater increases in these vegetation metrics. Unexpectedly, Himalayan endemic species increased (+1.4 species/m2 ; +8.5 plants/m2), especially on higher-elevation summits. In contrast, the increase in relative abundance of non-alpine species was greater at lower-elevation summits. Plants used by local Tibetans also increased (+1.3 species/m2 ; +32 plants/m2).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: As in other alpine areas, biodiversity is increasing with climate change in the Himalaya. Unlike other areas, endemic species are proliferating at the highest summits and are indicators of change.}, }
@article {pmid30931415, year = {2019}, author = {He, X and Burgess, KS and Gao, LM and Li, DZ}, title = {Distributional responses to climate change for alpine species of Cyananthus and Primula endemic to the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains.}, journal = {Plant diversity}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {26-32}, doi = {10.1016/j.pld.2019.01.004}, pmid = {30931415}, issn = {2468-2659}, abstract = {Global warming increases the vulnerability of plants, especially alpine herbaceous species, to local extinction. In this study, we collected species distribution information from herbarium specimens for ten selected Cyananthus and Primula alpine species endemic to the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains (HHM). Combined with climate data from WorldClim, we used Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt) to project distributional changes from the current time period to 2070. Our predictions indicate that, under a wide range of climate change scenarios, the distributions of all species will shift upward in elevation and northward in latitude; furthermore, under these scenarios, species will expand the size of their range. For the majority of the species in this study, habitats are available to mitigate upward and northward shifts that are projected to be induced by changing climate. If current climate projections, however, increase in magnitude or continue to increase past our projection dates, suitable habitat for future occupation by alpine species will be limited as we predict range contraction or less range expansion for some of the species under more intensified climate scenarios. Our study not only underscores the value of herbarium source information for future climate model projections but also suggests that future studies on the effects of climate change on alpine species should include additional biotic and abiotic factors to provide greater resolution of the local dynamics associated with species persistence under a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid30928797, year = {2019}, author = {Wen, Y and Liu, X and Bai, Y and Sun, Y and Yang, J and Lin, K and Pei, F and Yan, Y}, title = {Determining the impacts of climate change and urban expansion on terrestrial net primary production in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {240}, number = {}, pages = {75-83}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.071}, pmid = {30928797}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change and urbanization strongly affect the variations of terrestrial net primary production (NPP), but the relative contributions of these two factors to NPP changes have not been determined yet (especially on a macroscale). In this study, spatial-temporal variations of NPP in China from 2000 to 2010 were estimated using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model, and the effects induced by urbanization and climate change were quantified. The obtained results showed that during the study period, the NPP in China exhibited an annual increase of 0.03 Pg C accompanied by large spatial heterogeneities. During the whole study period, the urban area in China increased by 16.44 × 103 km2, and the corresponding NPP losses amounted to 11.60 × 10-3 Pg C. Urban expansion significantly offset the climate change-induced NPP increases and worsened NPP decreases (the offsetting ratio calculated for China was 5.42%, and its exact magnitudes varied by province). The largest NPP variations were observed over the regions with rapid urban expansion, whose contribution ratio was 32.20% for China and exceeded 30% for most provinces. Climate change contributed considerably to the NPP variations in both the newly urbanized (30.45%) and purely vegetated (46.92%) areas, but its contribution ratios were slightly lower than those of residual factors. Moreover, climate change strongly affected the NPP levels over the arid and semi-arid regions as well as over the Tibet Plateau; however, residual factors dominated the NPP variations over the central and southeast China. Our study highlights a significant role of urbanization in driving terrestrial NPP variations on a macroscale and provides a new perspective on disentangling the impacts of external factors on NPP values.}, }
@article {pmid30925436, year = {2019}, author = {Churakova Sidorova, OV and Lehmann, MM and Siegwolf, RTW and Saurer, M and Fonti, MV and Schmid, L and Timofeeva, G and Rinne-Garmston, KT and Bigler, C}, title = {Compound-specific carbon isotope patterns in needles of conifer tree species from the Swiss National Park under recent climate change.}, journal = {Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB}, volume = {139}, number = {}, pages = {264-272}, doi = {10.1016/j.plaphy.2019.03.016}, pmid = {30925436}, issn = {1873-2690}, abstract = {Elevated CO2 along with rising temperature and water deficits can lead to changes in tree physiology and leaf biochemistry. These changes can increase heat- and drought-induced tree mortality. We aim to reveal the impacts of climatic drivers on individual compounds at the leaf level among European larch (Larix decidua) and mountain pine (Pinus mugo) trees, which are widely distributed at high elevations. We investigated seasonal carbon isotope composition (δ13C) and concentration patterns of carbohydrates and organic acids in needles of these two different species from a case study in the Swiss National Park (SNP). We found that average and minimum air temperatures were the main climatic drivers of seasonal variation of δ13C in sucrose and glucose as well as in concentrations of carbohydrates and citric acid/citrate in needles of both tree species. The impact of seasonal climatic drivers on larch and mountain pine trees at the needle level is in line with our earlier study in this region for long-term changes at the tree-ring level. We conclude that the species-specific changes in δ13C and concentrations of carbohydrates and organic acids are sensitive indicators of changes in the metabolic pathways occurring as a result of climatic changes.}, }
@article {pmid30923847, year = {2019}, author = {Berger, N and Lindemann, AK and Böl, GF}, title = {[Public perception of climate change and implications for risk communication].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02930-0}, pmid = {30923847}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {Man-made climate change is associated with several weather and environmental changes that can influence the extent of certain health risks. The article gives an overview of the challenges of communicating these health risks. Theoretical considerations are linked with the results of a representative population survey, in which 1018 participants aged 14 years and above were polled about their perception of climate change and its associated health risks.According to the survey results, the majority of the population is convinced that climate change is actually taking place. However, the data suggest that respondents regard the topic with psychological distance. Health risks associated with climate change also play a relatively minor role in the participants' perception.The theoretical considerations in connection with the empirical results show that targeted communication measures are needed to enhance awareness of the health risks associated with climate change among the general public. This requires not only a comprehensive provision of information, but also instructions and action plans for the practical implementation of that knowledge. Communication measures should take into account factors that can influence risk perception and the willingness to act. They should also be embedded in a strategic communication concept that allows different target groups to be addressed.}, }
@article {pmid30923845, year = {2019}, author = {Rickerts, V}, title = {[Climate change and systemic fungal infections].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02931-z}, pmid = {30923845}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change may cause profound and complex changes in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Obligate pathogenic fungi causing endemic mycoses and the agents of cryptococcosis are environmental pathogens adapted to environmental niches. They may be exposed to changing climatic conditions, which may change the epidemiology of human infections.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To review documented changes in the epidemiology of endemic fungal infections and cryptococcosis. To review evidence that changing climate is a potential mechanism for changes in the epidemiology of these infections.<br><br>METHODS: A selective literature review focusing on endemic mycoses and cryptococcosis.<br><br>RESULTS: Changes in endemic regions of infections caused by C. gattii and selected endemic mycoses have been well documented. Significant increases in the incidence of infections have been demonstrated for some areas. Climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events), changes in land use, distribution of potential host animals, and global trade routes are discussed as contributory factors.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Improved surveillance of fungal infections of humans and animals including molecular typing of clinical and environmental isolates is necessary to understand the epidemiology of these infections. The characterization of environmental niches, mechanisms of distribution of fungi, and fungal adaptation mechanisms are needed to guide prevention strategies.}, }
@article {pmid30921514, year = {2019}, author = {Verheyen, J and Delnat, V and Stoks, R}, title = {Increased Daily Temperature Fluctuations Overrule the Ability of Gradual Thermal Evolution to Offset the Increased Pesticide Toxicity under Global Warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.8b07166}, pmid = {30921514}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {The widespread evidence that global warming can increase species sensitivities to chemical toxicants, and vice versa, and the recent insight that thermal evolution may mitigate these effects is crucial to predict the future impact of toxicants in a warming world. Nevertheless, a major component of global warming, the predicted increase in daily temperature fluctuations (DTFs), has been ignored at the interface of evolutionary ecotoxicology and global change biology. We studied whether 4 °C warming and a 5 °C DTF increase (to 10 °C DTF) magnified the negative impact of the insecticide chlorpyrifos (CPF) in larvae of low- and high-latitude populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. While 4 °C warming only increased CPF-induced mortality in high-latitude larvae, the high (10 °C) DTF increased CPF-induced larval mortality at both latitudes. CPF reduced the heat tolerance; however, this was buffered by latitude-specific thermal adaptation to both mean temperature and DTF. Integrating our results in a space-for-time substitution indicated that gradual thermal evolution in high-latitude larvae may offset the negative effects of CPF on heat tolerance under warming, unless the expected DTF increase is taken into account. Our results highlight the crucial importance of jointly integrating DTFs and thermal evolution to improve risk assessment of toxicants under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid30921321, year = {2019}, author = {Ryan, SJ and Carlson, CJ and Mordecai, EA and Johnson, LR}, title = {Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {e0007213}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0007213}, pmid = {30921321}, issn = {1935-2735}, abstract = {Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30919662, year = {2019}, author = {Langkulsen, U and Promsakha Na Sakolnakhon, K and James, N}, title = {Climate change and dengue risk in central region of Thailand.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2019.1599100}, pmid = {30919662}, issn = {1369-1619}, abstract = {Dengue poses a huge public health threat. It places physical and financial burden on individuals affected, family, and national health systems. This descriptive study aimed for two specific objectives; to investigate the weather effects on dengue incidence and to estimate level of risk in the central region of Thailand. It utilized a 10-year population level dengue morbidity data and meteorological data from 2007 to 2016. Kriging method was used to interpolate a weighted risk factor upon a 5-point risk estimate was developed for estimating area risk on a 5-point scale. The findings showed that 2 out of 16 provinces (12.5%) are strong to very strong risk areas for dengue, including Bangkok and Nonthaburi provinces. The study revealed that the impact of La Niña and El Niño on increased dengue incidence and risk level in Bangkok. We recommend further studies to establish intersections of dengue disease and social determinants of health.}, }
@article {pmid30917146, year = {2019}, author = {Parker, L and Bourgoin, C and Martinez-Valle, A and Läderach, P}, title = {Vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change: The development of a pan-tropical Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment to inform sub-national decision making.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {e0213641}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0213641}, pmid = {30917146}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {As climate change continues to exert increasing pressure upon the livelihoods and agricultural sector of many developing and developed nations, a need exists to understand and prioritise at the sub national scale which areas and communities are most vulnerable. The purpose of this study is to develop a robust, rigorous and replicable methodology that is flexible to data limitations and spatially prioritizes the vulnerability of agriculture and rural livelihoods to climate change. We have applied the methodology in Vietnam, Uganda and Nicaragua, three contrasting developing countries that are particularly threatened by climate change. We conceptualize vulnerability to climate change following the widely adopted combination of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity. We used Ecocrop and Maxent ecological models under a high emission climate scenario to assess the sensitivity of the main food security and cash crops to climate change. Using a participatory approach, we identified exposure to natural hazards and the main indicators of adaptive capacity, which were modelled and analysed using geographic information systems. We finally combined the components of vulnerability using equal-weighting to produce a crop specific vulnerability index and a final accumulative score. We have mapped the hotspots of climate change vulnerability and identified the underlying driving indicators. For example, in Vietnam we found the Mekong delta to be one of the vulnerable regions due to a decline in the climatic suitability of rice and maize, combined with high exposure to flooding, sea level rise and drought. However, the region is marked by a relatively high adaptive capacity due to developed infrastructure and comparatively high levels of education. The approach and information derived from the study informs public climate change policies and actions, as vulnerability assessments are the bases of any National Adaptation Plans (NAP), National Determined Contributions (NDC) and for accessing climate finance.}, }
@article {pmid30915801, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, YB and Liu, YL and Qin, H and Meng, QX}, title = {[Prediction on spatial migration of suitable distribution of Elaeagnus mollis under climate change conditions in Shanxi Province, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {496-502}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201902.040}, pmid = {30915801}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on biodiversity and its adaptation will directly affect the efficiency of biodiversity conservation. Predicting spatial variation of suitable habitats of threatened species under future climate change has important theoretical and practical significance for biodiversity conservation. In this study, we predicted the suitable distribution of Elaeagnus mollis, an endemic endangered plant in China, under climate change at regional scales. Then, we simulated the spatial variation and migration tend of suitable distribution under different climate change scenarios by spatial analysis. The results from Maxent model showed that the two suitable distribution areas of E. mollis presented different migration trends under the future climate change scenarios: the suitable areas of Lyuliang Mountain would fluctuate slightly in latitudinal direction, while that in Zhongtiao Mountain would migrate to high elevation. Analysis of the spatial pattern change of the suitable areas indicated that the areas with obvious change occurred at the boundary of the suitable areas of E. mollis, including new suitable area and lost suitable area. The new suitable areas were scattered in the marginal of the original, with the increase rate of 9.1% to 20.9%, and the lost suitable areas were concentrated in the northern Lyuliang Mountain suitable areas and the southeast Zhongtiao Mountain suitable areas, with the loss rate of 16.4% to 31.1%. These regions were more sensitive to climate change. Using the classification statistical tool of Zonal, we found that the central points of the Lyuliang Mountain suitable areas showed southward migration trend under the future climate change, with the maximum migration distance of 7.451 km, while the center point of the Zhongtiao Mountain suitable areas showed migration trend to the northwest, with the maximum migration distance of 8.284 km. Our results indicated that the response of E. mollis distribution in Shanxi to climate change was intense.}, }
@article {pmid30914147, year = {2019}, author = {Chaverra, A and Wieters, E and Foggo, A and Knights, AM}, title = {Removal of intertidal grazers by human harvesting leads to alteration of species interactions, community structure and resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.03.003}, pmid = {30914147}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Extreme fluctuations in abiotic conditions can induce a biological stress response (e.g. bleaching) detrimental to an organism's health. In some instances, organisms can recover if conditions are alleviated, such as through co-occurrence with other species that confer protection. Biodiverse, multitrophic communities are increasingly recognised as important promoters of species persistence and resilience under environmental change. On intertidal shores, the role of grazers as top-down determinants of algal community structure is well recognised. Similarly, the harvesting of grazers for human consumption is increasingly prevalent with potential to greatly alter the community dynamics. Here, we assess how differences in harvesting pressure of grazers under three management regimes (no-take; managed access; open-access) alters the trophic interactions between grazers, and algal communities. Grazer density and body size frequencies were different among regimes leading to changes in the photosynthetic performance and recovery of crustose coralline algae (CCA) post-bleaching, as well as their presence altering the strength of interactions between species. The exclusion of grazers from patches using cages led to different emergent communities and reduced negative correlations between taxa. The absence of larger grazers (>9 cm) at the managed access site led to macroalgal overgrowth of bleached CCA negatively affecting its recovery, whereas no-take or open-access led to a moderated algal growth and a shift from competitive to facilitative interactions between algal species. Given that CCA play an important role in the population growth and development of other species, the choice of management measure should be carefully considered before implementation, depending on objectives.}, }
@article {pmid30912234, year = {2019}, author = {Mariani, M and Fletcher, MS and Haberle, S and Chin, H and Zawadzki, A and Jacobsen, G}, title = {Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14609}, pmid = {30912234}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DI110100019//Australian Research Council/ ; IN140100050//Australian Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and the functioning of ecosystems. For species that are slow growing and poorly dispersed, climate change can force a lag between the distributions of species and the geographic distributions of their climatic envelopes, exposing species to the risk of extinction. Climate also governs the resilience of species and ecosystems to disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use species distribution modelling and palaeoecology to assess and test the impact of vegetation-climate disequilibrium on the resilience of an endangered fire-sensitive rainforest community to fires. First, we modelled the probability of occurrence of Athrotaxis spp. and Nothofagus gunnii rainforest in Tasmania (hereon &quot;montane rainforest&quot;) as a function of climate. We then analysed three pollen and charcoal records spanning the last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high (n = 1) and low (n = 2) probability of occurrence areas. Our study indicates that climatic change between 3,000 and 4,000 cal year bp induced a disequilibrium between montane rainforests and climate that drove a loss of resilience of these communities. Current and future climate change are likely to shift the geographic distribution of the climatic envelopes of this plant community further, suggesting that current high-resilience locations will face a reduction in resilience. Coupled with the forecast of increasing fire activity in southern temperate regions, this heralds a significant threat to this and other slow growing, poorly dispersed and fire sensitive forest systems that are common in the southern mid to high latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid30911069, year = {2019}, author = {Jara, M and García-Roa, R and Escobar, LE and Torres-Carvajal, O and Pincheira-Donoso, D}, title = {Alternative reproductive adaptations predict asymmetric responses to climate change in lizards.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {5093}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-41670-8}, pmid = {30911069}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change ranks among the major global-scale threats to modern biodiversity. Extinction risks are known to increase via the interactions between rapid climatic alterations and environmentally-sensitive species traits that fail to adapt to those changes. Accumulating evidence reveals the influence of ecophysiological, ecological and phenological factors as drivers underlying demographic collapses that lead to population extinctions. However, the extent to which life-history traits influence population responses to climate change remains largely unexplored. The emerging 'cul-de-sac hypothesis' predicts that reptilian viviparity ('live-bearing' reproduction), a 'key innovation' facilitating historical invasions of cold climates, increases extinction risks under progressively warming climates compared to oviparous reproduction - as warming advances polewards/mountainwards, historically cold-climates shrink, leading viviparous species to face demographic collapses. We present the first large-scale test of this prediction based on multiple lizard radiations and on future projections of climate-based ecological niche models. Viviparous species were found to experience stronger elevational range shifts (and potentially increased extinctions) in coming decades, compared to oviparous lizards. Therefore, our analyses support the hypothesis's fundamental prediction that elevational shifts are more severe in viviparous species, and highlight the role that life-history adaptations play in the responses of biodiversity to ongoing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30910789, year = {2019}, author = {Kemple, T}, title = {Toolkit for GPs to take action on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {364}, number = {}, pages = {l1342}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l1342}, pmid = {30910789}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid30909476, year = {2019}, author = {Mukamuhirwa, A and Persson Hovmalm, H and Bolinsson, H and Ortiz, R and Nyamangyoku, O and Johansson, E}, title = {Concurrent Drought and Temperature Stress in Rice-A Possible Result of the Predicted Climate Change: Effects on Yield Attributes, Eating Characteristics, and Health Promoting Compounds.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16061043}, pmid = {30909476}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {5410004501//Styrelsen för Internationellt Utvecklingssamarbete/ ; }, abstract = {Despite the likely increasing co-occurrence of drought and heat stress, not least in equatorial regions, due to climate change, little is known about the combinational effect of these stresses on rice productivity and quality. This study evaluated the impact of simultaneous drought and temperature stress on growth, grain yield, and quality characteristics of seven rice cultivars from Rwanda, grown in climate chambers. Two temperature ranges-23/26 °C night/day and 27/30 °C night/day-together with single or repeated drought treatments, were applied during various plant developmental stages. Plant development and yield were highly influenced by drought, while genotype impacted the quality characteristics. The combination of a high temperature with drought at the seedling and tillering stages resulted in zero panicles for all evaluated cultivars. The cultivar 'Intsindagirabigega' was most tolerant to drought, while 'Zong geng' was the most sensitive. A &quot;stress memory&quot; was recorded for 'Mpembuke' and 'Ndamirabahinzi', and these cultivars also had a high content of bioactive compounds, while 'Jyambere' showed a high total protein content. Thus, climate change may severely impact rice production. The exploitation of genetic diversity to breed novel rice cultivars that combine drought and heat stress tolerance with high nutritional values is a must to maintain food security.}, }
@article {pmid30909203, year = {2019}, author = {Ardalan, A and Belay, GD and Assen, M and Attar, MJH and Khoei, EM and Ostadtaghizadeh, A}, title = {Impact of climate change on community health and resilience in Ethiopia: A review article.}, journal = {Human antibodies}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3233/HAB-190364}, pmid = {30909203}, issn = {1875-869X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Drought is a serious issue which might be caused by climate change that could create famine and health problems. Drought reduces air quality, increases fungal infestation, reduces people hand washing, affects mental health, leads to malnutrition by decreasing agricultural production, and increases diseases transmitted by insects. This study aimed to determine and describe community health status through building drought resilience in Ethiopia.<br><br>METHODS: This review was conducted based on the available peer-reviewed articles that were published from January 2004 to December 2018 Online databases from PubMed, MEDLINE, Scopus, EMBASE and Google Scholar were searched for studies related to the building drought and community health resilience at different regions of Ethiopia that were published in English language. The search was made by using &quot;Emergency disaster&quot;, &quot;prevention&quot;, &quot;preparedness&quot;, &quot;response&quot;, &quot;recovery&quot;, &quot;drought&quot;, &quot;food insecurity&quot;, &quot;coping strategies&quot; and &quot;drought health policy&quot; as keywords.<br><br>RESULTS: Most of the reviewed articles deal with the impact of climate change on the human health in relation to food security. The associated factors of the impact of drought on food security is basically due to lack of irrigation and farmland, the scarcity of water due to the direct effect of drought, flood, severe soil erosion, livestock dispossession, family size of the household and literacy of the households. Various coping strategies were employed by the households to alleviate the high and continued food insecurity problem such as reducing the number and amount of meal, scrounging cash and grain, searching for off-farm and non-farm jobs, getting food aid, vending of livestock, and partake in food for work programs.}, }
@article {pmid30909160, year = {2019}, author = {Bhargava, A}, title = {Climate change, demographic pressures and global sustainability.}, journal = {Economics and human biology}, volume = {33}, number = {}, pages = {149-154}, doi = {10.1016/j.ehb.2019.02.007}, pmid = {30909160}, issn = {1873-6130}, abstract = {This article emphasizes the need for broader approaches for formulating policies for mitigating the effects of climate change especially in the contexts of agricultural decisions, and population health and migration. Constraints imposed by rapid population growth in developing countries for achievement of Sustainable Development Goals are discussed and evidence is presented on &quot;unwanted&quot; fertility from India. Second, comparisons are made for India during 2002-2016 for average well depths in 495 districts and terrestrial water storage anomalies assessed via GRACE satellites for 274 1° × 1° grids using estimated parameters from dynamic random effects models. Lastly, migration patterns especially of the highly educated from 39 sending countries to OECD countries during 2000-2010 are analyzed using dynamic random effects models and total fertility rates were significantly associated with higher migration rates for the highly educated. Implications of the empirical evidence for enhancing global sustainability are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid30909039, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, M and Ma, J and Kang, L and Wei, Y and He, Q and Hu, X and Li, H}, title = {Strong turbulence benefits toxic and colonial cyanobacteria in water: A potential way of climate change impact on the expansion of Harmful Algal Blooms.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {670}, number = {}, pages = {613-622}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.253}, pmid = {30909039}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Extreme natural events such as typhoons can amplify the effect of hydrodynamics on the lake ecosystems. Here we presented data on the effect of typhoons on algal cell size based on field observation. Then turbulence simulation systems were used to decipher the response of natural phytoplankton communities to a range of turbulence regimes (linked to typhoon-induced turbulence intensity) under laboratory conditions. Turbulence intensities of 6.17 × 10-3, 1.10 × 10-2 and 1.80 × 10-2 m2/s3 benefited algal growth and triggered abrupt switches from unicellular Chlorella dominated to colonial Microcystis dominance, and the abundance of colonial algae depended on the turbulence intensity. Under the influence of elevated turbulence, Microcystis dominated biomass increased by 2.60-6.58 times compared with that of Chlorella. At a given phytoplankton density and community composition, we observed a significant increase in extracellular microcystins (MCs) and a 47.5-fold increase in intracellular MCs with intensified turbulent mixing, suggesting that the damage of algal cells concomitantly the stimulation of toxin-producing Microcystis. Our results confirmed that the formation of large colonial algal cells, enhancement of the succession of algal species, and most importantly, the induction of toxin-producing Microcystis, were the active adaption strategy when phytoplankton were impacted by strong turbulence. The result implies that the ongoing climates changes and typhoon events are likely to contribute to undesirable outcomes concerning phytoplankton populations.}, }
@article {pmid30904658, year = {2019}, author = {Bai, X and Zhang, X and Li, J and Duan, X and Jin, Y and Chen, Z}, title = {Altitudinal disparity in growth of Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) in response to recent climate change in northeast China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {670}, number = {}, pages = {466-477}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.232}, pmid = {30904658}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Forests are sensitive to climate change at high altitude and high latitude. Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) has experienced an unprecedented forest retreat northward during the last century. Whether the response of growth to climate has dissimilar patterns at different altitudes, and what the &quot;altitudinal trends&quot; of forest development will be in the future, remains unclear. We dendroclimatically investigated the impacts of climate change on the growth of larch forests along an altitudinal gradient. In total, 721 trees from 25 forest stands, representing an altitudinal range from 400 to 950 m a.s.l. in the Great Xing'an Mountains, northeast China, were sampled and used to develop tree-ring width chronologies. The results suggest that warming caused a decline in larch growth at low altitude, while tree growth increased at high altitude. The growth-climate relationships indicate that October-February temperatures were positively correlated with larch growth at low- and high-altitude sites, but negatively correlated at medium-altitude sites (ca. 600-700 m a.s.l.). April-May (early spring) temperatures and October-January precipitation had positive effects on growth in general (ca. 75% of all sites). The effects of summer temperature/precipitation on larch growth at high-altitude sites were opposite to that at low-altitude sites. This change of response from significantly positive/negative correlation to significantly negative/positive correlation occurred gradually along the altitudinal gradient. The relationships varied significantly with altitude both in the case of temperature (R2 = 0.425, P < 0.001) and precipitation (R2 = 0.613, P < 0.001). The shift in response of larch forest to changes in summer temperature and precipitation occurred in the areas with a mean annual temperature of ca. -4 °C and ca. -5 °C, respectively; larch growth at temperatures lower or higher than these thresholds was limited by temperature and precipitation, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid30904110, year = {2019}, author = {Gasparrini, A and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM}, title = {Temperature-related mortality and climate change in Australia - Authors' reply.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {e122-e123}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30043-9}, pmid = {30904110}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid30904109, year = {2019}, author = {Longden, T}, title = {Temperature-related mortality and climate change in Australia.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {e121}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30016-6}, pmid = {30904109}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid30904092, year = {2019}, author = {Muthamilarasan, M and Singh, NK and Prasad, M}, title = {Multi-omics approaches for strategic improvement of stress tolerance in underutilized crop species: A climate change perspective.}, journal = {Advances in genetics}, volume = {103}, number = {}, pages = {1-38}, doi = {10.1016/bs.adgen.2019.01.001}, pmid = {30904092}, issn = {0065-2660}, abstract = {For several decades, researchers are working toward improving the &quot;major&quot; crops for better adaptability and tolerance to environmental stresses. However, little or no research attention is given toward neglected and underutilized crop species (NUCS) which hold the potential to ensure food and nutritional security among the ever-growing global population. NUCS are predominantly climate resilient, but their yield and quality are compromised due to selective breeding. In this context, the importance of omics technologies namely genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, phenomics and ionomics in delineating the complex molecular machinery governing growth, development and stress responses of NUCS is underlined. However, gaining insights through individual omics approaches will not be sufficient to address the research questions, whereas integrating these technologies could be an effective strategy to decipher the gene function, genome structures, biological pathways, metabolic and regulatory networks underlying complex traits. Given this, the chapter enlists the importance of NUCS in food and nutritional security and provides an overview of deploying omics approaches to study the NUCS. Also, the chapter enumerates the status of crop improvement programs in NUCS and suggests implementing &quot;integrating omics&quot; for gaining a better understanding of crops' response to abiotic and biotic stresses.}, }
@article {pmid30903471, year = {2019}, author = {Attiaoui, I and Boufateh, T}, title = {Impacts of climate change on cereal farming in Tunisia: a panel ARDL-PMG approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-04867-y}, pmid = {30903471}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {We used an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling to investigate the short- and long-term effects of climate change on Tunisian cereal farming. The Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation as well as Granger causality tests conducted on a regional panel of the country, covering a time horizon from 1975 to 2014, showed that climate change issues still persist in Tunisia, affecting negatively and increasingly the cereal output. This study proves that negative effects of climate are rather felt when there is a shortage of rainfall, whereas the current temperature levels are still in favor of cereal crop. The findings indicate that cereal farming requires a continuous technology pack deployment and a favorable climate. However, an unanticipated long-run relationship has been observed between cereal production and labor. As a result of this research, recommendations were built around two major strategies, namely yield improvement and farmers' income stabilization to mitigate the unpredictable effects of climate change and hazardous events. The implementation of a production and regional specialization map and the adoption of an anti-drought insurance system in addition to compensation payment would be a suitable adaptation policy to climate change effects and for the sustainability of Tunisian agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid30902110, year = {2019}, author = {Crkvencic, N and Šlapeta, J}, title = {Climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) distribution in Australia.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {137}, doi = {10.1186/s13071-019-3399-6}, pmid = {30902110}, issn = {1756-3305}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Bioclimatic variables play an integral part in the life-cycle of Ctenocephalides felis, the most common flea found on companion animals. It is essential that we understand the effects of climate on C. felis distribution as fleas are a major veterinary and public health concern. This study investigated the current distribution of C. felis in Australia and future projections based on climate modelling.<br><br>RESULTS: Typing of C. felis was undertaken using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) region and current distribution of haplotypes was mapped by Maximum Entropy (Maxent) niche modelling. All C. felis haplotypes have been predicted to persist in environments along the eastern and southern coastlines of Australia and distinct ecological niches were observed for two C. felis haplogroups. Clade 'Cairns' haplogroup thrives under the northern coastal tropical conditions whilst Clade 'Sydney' haplogroup persists in temperate climates along the eastern and southern coasts. The model was then used to predict areas that are projected to have suitable climatic conditions for these haplogroups in 2050 and 2070 under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. Under all IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, the geographical range of all haplotypes was reduced by 5.59-42.21% in 2050 and 27.08-58.82% by 2070. The ranges of all clades were predicted to shift south along the eastern coastline.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: As future temperatures exceed critical threshold temperatures for C. felis development in the northern tropical areas, Clade 'Cairns' haplogroup is predicted to shift south along the coastline and possibly outcompete the temperate haplogroup in these areas. If C. felis haplogroups possess distinct climatic niches it suggests a potential for these to be biologically distinct and have differing developmental rates and vector capabilities.}, }
@article {pmid30901779, year = {2019}, author = {Tal, A}, title = {The implications of climate change driven depletion of Lake Kinneret water levels: the compelling case for climate change-triggered precipitation impact on Lake Kinneret's low water levels.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {1045-1051}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.106}, pmid = {30901779}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The dramatic drop in water levels in the Kinneret Lake (Sea of Galilee) during the past years is evaluated. Recently published measurements of temperature, precipitation and other hydrological data support the position that climate change is driving the contraction of this iconic water resource. The article presents a range of evidence confirming long-term shifts in the hydrological dynamics of the watershed and details the associated ecological implications. In response to these trends, Israel's government has decided to build a desalination plant along the Northern Mediterranean shoreline that will provide water to replenish the depleted water levels in lake. Given the likelihood of continued global warming expediting increased evaporation and reduced precipitation, such climate adaptation policies constitute prudent public policy.}, }
@article {pmid30901496, year = {2019}, author = {Zlonis, KJ and Etterson, JR}, title = {Constituents of a mixed-ploidy population of Solidago altissima differ in plasticity and predicted response to selection under simulated climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {106}, number = {3}, pages = {453-468}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.1257}, pmid = {30901496}, issn = {1537-2197}, support = {DEB-0641285//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Polyploids possess unique attributes that influence their environmental tolerance and geographic distribution. It is often unknown, however, whether cytotypes within mixed-ploidy populations are also uniquely adapted and differ in their responses to environmental change. Here, we examine whether diploids and hexaploids from a single mixed-ploidy population of Solidago altissima differ in plasticity and potential response to natural selection under conditions simulating climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Clonal replicates of diploid and hexaploid genotypes were grown in a randomized split-plot design under two temperature (+1.9°C) and two watering treatments (-13% soil moisture) implemented with open-top passive chambers placed under rainout shelters. Physiological, phenological, morphological traits, and a fitness correlate, reproductive biomass, were measured and compared among treatments.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Differences in traits suggest that diploids are currently better adapted to low- water availability than hexaploids. Both ploidy levels had adaptive plastic responses to treatments and are predicted to respond to selection, but often for different traits. Water availability generally had a stronger effect than temperature, but for some traits the effect of water depended on temperature.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Diploid and hexaploid S. altissima may maintain fitness in the short term through adaptive plasticity and evolution depending on which traits are important in a warmer, drier environment. Hexaploids may be at a disadvantage compared to diploids because fewer traits were heritable. Our results underscore the importance of studying combinations of climate variables that are predicted to change simultaneously.}, }
@article {pmid30901490, year = {2019}, author = {Fuller, RS and McGlaughlin, ME}, title = {Calochortus gunnisonii furthers evidence for the complex genetic legacy of historical climate change in the southern Rocky Mountains.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {106}, number = {3}, pages = {477-488}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.1259}, pmid = {30901490}, issn = {1537-2197}, support = {//Colorado Federation of Garden Clubs, Inc./ ; //National Garden Clubs, Inc./ ; //UNC Graduate Student Association/ ; //UNC College of Natural and Health Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Climate cycles of the Quaternary have impacted plants at a global scale, leaving behind a complex genetic legacy. Species of the northern Rocky Mountains of North America were exposed to more uniform glacial patterns than the central and southern ranges, where synergistic relationships between temperature and precipitation caused differences in the timing and extent of glacier onset. We examined the genetic impacts of climate oscillations on Calochortus gunnisonii (Liliaceae) in the central and southern Rocky Mountains.<br><br>METHODS: Populations were sampled from disjunct mountain ranges across the basins of Wyoming and northern and central Colorado. Allelic data from nuclear microsatellites and plastid sequences (trnV-ndhC, petA-psbJ, and rpl16) were used to examine patterns of genetic structure between and among populations along the southern Rocky Mountain corridor.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: We infer considerable population structure concordant with mountain range of origin. Clustering analysis supports separate north and south genetic clusters on either side of major basins in Wyoming, suggesting that populations were maintained in two distinct refugia. Additionally, populations within the Sierra Madre Range of southern Wyoming show localized, divergent genetic signal indicative of a third potential glacial refugium. By contrast, recent genetic admixture is observed in the Laramie, Medicine Bow, and Front ranges, where population expansion from glacial refugia has likely occurred.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that during climate cycles of the Quaternary, C. gunnisonii experienced periods of population expansion and reduction, habitat fragmentation, isolation in three or more refugia, and admixture mirroring genetic impacts of other southern Rocky Mountains organisms.}, }
@article {pmid30900963, year = {2019}, author = {Agamuthu, P and Ragossnig, AM and Velis, C}, title = {Publishing impactful interdisciplinary waste-related research on global challenges: Circular economy, climate change and plastics pollution.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {37}, number = {4}, pages = {313-314}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X19837785}, pmid = {30900963}, issn = {1096-3669}, }
@article {pmid30899064, year = {2019}, author = {Her, Y and Yoo, SH and Cho, J and Hwang, S and Jeong, J and Seong, C}, title = {Uncertainty in hydrological analysis of climate change: multi-parameter vs. multi-GCM ensemble predictions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4974}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-41334-7}, pmid = {30899064}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The quantification of uncertainty in the ensemble-based predictions of climate change and the corresponding hydrological impact is necessary for the development of robust climate adaptation plans. Although the equifinality of hydrological modeling has been discussed for a long time, its influence on the hydrological analysis of climate change has not been studied enough to provide a definite idea about the relative contributions of uncertainty contained in both multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and multi-parameter ensembles to hydrological projections. This study demonstrated that the impact of multi-GCM ensemble uncertainty on direct runoff projections for headwater watersheds could be an order of magnitude larger than that of multi-parameter ensemble uncertainty. The finding suggests that the selection of appropriate GCMs should be much more emphasized than that of a parameter set among behavioral ones. When projecting soil moisture and groundwater, on the other hand, the hydrological modeling equifinality was more influential than the multi-GCM ensemble uncertainty. Overall, the uncertainty of GCM projections was dominant for relatively rapid hydrological components while the uncertainty of hydrological model parameterization was more significant for slow components. In addition, uncertainty in hydrological projections was much more closely associated with uncertainty in the ensemble projections of precipitation than temperature, indicating a need to pay closer attention to precipitation data for improved modeling reliability. Uncertainty in hydrological component ensemble projections showed unique responses to uncertainty in the precipitation and temperature ensembles.}, }
@article {pmid30894642, year = {2019}, author = {Pohl, B and Joly, D and Pergaud, J and Buoncristiani, JF and Soare, P and Berger, A}, title = {Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4919}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5}, pmid = {30894642}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {ANR-14-CE03-0006-04//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; ANR-14-CE03-0006-04//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; ANR-14-CE03-0006-04//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; ANR-14-CE03-0006-04//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; ANR-14-CE03-0006-04//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; ANR-14-CE03-0006-04//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; }, abstract = {Mountains are a sensitive indicator of climate change and these areas are an early glimpse of what could happen in lowland environments. Peaking at 4808 m asl, the Mont-Blanc summit, at the boundary between France and Italy, is the highest of the Alps, in Western Europe. Its Massif is world-famous for outdoor and extreme sport activities, especially since the 1924 Olympic games held in Chamonix. Here, we use a novel statistical downscaling approach to regionalize current and future climate change over the Mont-Blanc Massif at an unequalled spatial resolution of 200 m. The algorithm is applied to daily minimum and maximum temperature derived from global climate models used in the fifth assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This new high-resolution database allows for a precise quantification of frost occurrence and its evolution until 2100. In the winter season and by the end of the 21st century, under a pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), frost frequency in the morning could decrease by 30-35 percentage points in the valley of Chamonix, and in the afternoon, similar changes could occur for elevations comprised between 2000 and 3000 m. In summertime, changes are even larger, reaching a huge drop of 45-50 points in the afternoon between 3500 and 4500 m. These changes are much reduced under an optimistic scenario. They could have huge impacts on the environment (glacier shrinking, permafrost degradation, floods, changes in the distribution of species and ecosystems) and societies (summer tourism for climbing and hiking, and winter tourism for skiing).}, }
@article {pmid30894543, year = {2019}, author = {Danneyrolles, V and Dupuis, S and Fortin, G and Leroyer, M and de Römer, A and Terrail, R and Vellend, M and Boucher, Y and Laflamme, J and Bergeron, Y and Arseneault, D}, title = {Stronger influence of anthropogenic disturbance than climate change on century-scale compositional changes in northern forests.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1265}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09265-z}, pmid = {30894543}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Canada ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Forestry/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forests ; Humans ; Light ; *Models, Statistical ; Plant Dispersal/*physiology ; Temperature ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Predicting future ecosystem dynamics depends critically on an improved understanding of how disturbances and climate change have driven long-term ecological changes in the past. Here we assembled a dataset of >100,000 tree species lists from the 19th century across a broad region (>130,000km2) in temperate eastern Canada, as well as recent forest inventories, to test the effects of changes in anthropogenic disturbance, temperature and moisture on forest dynamics. We evaluate changes in forest composition using four indices quantifying the affinities of co-occurring tree species with temperature, drought, light and disturbance. Land-use driven shifts favouring more disturbance-adapted tree species are far stronger than any effects ascribable to climate change, although the responses of species to disturbance are correlated with their expected responses to climate change. As such, anthropogenic and natural disturbances are expected to have large direct effects on forests and also indirect effects via altered responses to future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30891512, year = {2019}, author = {Coltri, PP and Pinto, HS and Gonçalves, RRDV and Zullo Junior, J and Dubreuil, V}, title = {Low levels of shade and climate change adaptation of Arabica coffee in southeastern Brazil.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {e01263}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e01263}, pmid = {30891512}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Coffee is one of the most consumed beverages in the world, and its international market has been growing for many years. Unfortunately, the Brazilian coffee production is threatened by high temperatures projected by climate change models. We evaluated three schemes of low levels of shade, which avoid the loss of production, as a strategy to adapt coffee to possible climate change. Additionally, as field measurements are expensive and often difficult to implement, we used numerical simulation to complement the evaluation. The microclimate simulator software Envi-met is a computer program often used to simulate urban environments, and we tested it on agriculture design. We verified that the shaded schemes assessed in the field decreased the air temperature in 0.6 °C in the studied period and reduced other possible climate stressors such as wind speed, radiation and raised air humidity in the dry period. Envi-met described the studied meteorological variable cycle very well, showing that combining numerical modelling and field research may be an important tool for planning the adaptation of the coffee sector to possible climate change, allowing growers choose a proper technique for their regions and environmental conditions. Finally, we highlighted the importance of planning the shade scheme on coffee areas in an interdisciplinary approach, including local climate evaluation to achieve a balance between temperature attenuation and production.}, }
@article {pmid30890800, year = {2019}, author = {Warren, M}, title = {Thousands of scientists are backing the kids striking for climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {567}, number = {7748}, pages = {291-292}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00861-z}, pmid = {30890800}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30890178, year = {2019}, author = {Chersich, MF and Wright, CY}, title = {Climate change adaptation in South Africa: a case study on the role of the health sector.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {22}, doi = {10.1186/s12992-019-0466-x}, pmid = {30890178}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Care Sector ; Humans ; Role ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Globally, the response to climate change is gradually gaining momentum as the impacts of climate change unfold. In South Africa, it is increasingly apparent that delays in responding to climate change over the past decades have jeopardized human life and livelihoods. While slow progress with mitigation, especially in the energy sector, has garnered much attention, focus is now shifting to developing plans and systems to adapt to the impacts of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: We applied systematic review methods to assess progress with climate change adaptation in the health sector in South Africa. This case study provides useful lessons which could be applied in other countries in the African region, or globally. We reviewed the literature indexed in PubMed and Web of Science, together with relevant grey literature. We included articles describing adaptation interventions to reduce the impact of climate change on health in South Africa. All study designs were eligible. Data from included articles and grey literature were summed thematically.<br><br>RESULTS: Of the 820 publications screened, 21 were included, together with an additional xx papers. Very few studies presented findings of an intervention or used high-quality research designs. Several policy frameworks for climate change have been developed at national and local government levels. These, however, pay little attention to health concerns and the specific needs of vulnerable groups. Systems for forecasting extreme weather, and tracking malaria and other infections appear well established. Yet, there is little evidence about the country's preparedness for extreme weather events, or the ability of the already strained health system to respond to these events. Seemingly, few adaptation measures have taken place in occupational and other settings. To date, little attention has been given to climate change in training curricula for health workers.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the volume and quality of research is disappointing, and disproportionate to the threat posed by climate change in South Africa. This is surprising given that the requisite expertise for policy advocacy, identifying effective interventions and implementing systems-based approaches rests within the health sector. More effective use of data, a traditional strength of health professionals, could support adaptation and promote accountability of the state. With increased health-sector leadership, climate change could be reframed as predominately a health issue, one necessitating an urgent, adequately-resourced response. Such a shift in South Africa, but also beyond the country, may play a key role in accelerating climate change adaptation and mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid30890094, year = {2019}, author = {Rivrud, IM and Meisingset, EL and Loe, LE and Mysterud, A}, title = {Future suitability of habitat in a migratory ungulate under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1899}, pages = {20190442}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2019.0442}, pmid = {30890094}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {With climate change, the effect of global warming on snow cover is expected to cause range expansion and enhance habitat suitability for species at their northern distribution limits. However, how this depends on landscape topography and sex in size-dimorphic species remains uncertain, and is further complicated for migratory animals following climate-driven seasonal resource fluctuations across vast landscapes. Using 11 years of data from a partially migratory ungulate at their northern distribution ranges, the red deer (Cervus elaphus), we predicted sex-specific summer and winter habitat suitability in diverse landscapes under medium and severe global warming. We found large increases in future winter habitat suitability, resulting in expansion of winter ranges as currently unsuitable habitat became suitable. Even moderate warming decreased snow cover substantially, with no suitability difference between warming scenarios. Winter ranges will hence not expand linearly with warming, even for species at their northern distribution limits. Although less pronounced than in winter, summer ranges also expanded and more so under severe warming. Summer habitat suitability was positively correlated with landscape topography and ranges expanded more for females than males. Our study highlights the complexity of predicting future habitat suitability for conservation and management of size-dimorphic, migratory species under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid30886391, year = {2019}, author = {Strandén, I and Kantanen, J and Russo, IM and Orozco-terWengel, P and Bruford, MW and , }, title = {Genomic selection strategies for breeding adaptation and production in dairy cattle under climate change.}, journal = {Heredity}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41437-019-0207-1}, pmid = {30886391}, issn = {1365-2540}, abstract = {Livestock production both contributes to and is affected by global climate change, and substantial modifications will be required to increase its climate resilience. In this context, reliance on dominant commercial livestock breeds, featuring small effective population sizes, makes current production strategies vulnerable if their production is restricted to environments, which may be too costly to support under future climate scenarios. The adaptability of animal populations to future environments will therefore become important. To help evaluate the role of genetics in climate adaptation, we compared selection strategies in dairy cattle using breeding simulations, where genomic selection was used on two negatively correlated traits for production (assumed to be moderately heritable) and adaptation (assumed to have low heritability). Compared with within-population breeding, genomic introgression produced a more positive genetic change for both production and adaptation traits. Genomic introgression from highly adapted but low production value populations into highly productive but low adaptation populations was most successful when the adaptation trait was given a lower selection weight than the production trait. Genomic introgression from highly productive population to highly adapted population was most successful when the adaptation trait was given a higher selection weight than the production trait. Both these genomic introgression schemes had the lowest risk of inbreeding. Our results suggest that both adaptation and production can potentially be improved simultaneously by genomic introgression.}, }
@article {pmid30884421, year = {2019}, author = {Liu-Helmersson, J and Rocklöv, J and Sewe, M and Brännström, Å}, title = {Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {172}, number = {}, pages = {693-699}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.02.026}, pmid = {30884421}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change allows Aedes aegypti to infest new areas. Consequently, it enables the arboviruses the mosquito transmits -- e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever - to emerge in previously uninfected areas. An example is the Portuguese island of Madeira during 2012-13.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: We aim to understand how climate change will affect the future spread of this potent vector, as an aid in assessing the risk of disease outbreaks and effectively allocating resources for vector control.<br><br>METHODS: We used an empirically-informed, process-based mathematical model to study the feasibility of Aedes aegypti infestation into continental Europe. Based on established global climate-change scenario data, we assess the potential of Aedes aegypti to establish in Europe over the 21st century by estimating the vector population growth rate for five climate models (GCM5).<br><br>RESULTS: In a low carbon emission future (RCP2.6), we find minimal change to the current situation throughout the whole of the 21st century. In a high carbon future (RCP8.5), a large parts of southern Europe risks being invaded by Aedes aegypti.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our results show that successfully enforcing the Paris Agreement by limiting global warming to below 2 °C significantly lowers the risk for infestation of Aedes aegypti and consequently of potential large-scale arboviral disease outbreaks in Europe within the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid30884039, year = {2019}, author = {Piao, S and Liu, Q and Chen, A and Janssens, IA and Fu, Y and Dai, J and Liu, L and Lian, X and Shen, M and Zhu, X}, title = {Plant phenology and global climate change: Current progresses and challenges.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14619}, pmid = {30884039}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {B14001//The 111 Project/ ; 41530528//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; //National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China/ ; }, abstract = {Plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, is important for plant functioning and ecosystem services and their biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. Plant phenology depends on temperature, and the current rapid climate change has revived interest in understanding and modeling the responses of plant phenology to the warming trend and the consequences thereof for ecosystems. Here, we review recent progresses in plant phenology and its interactions with climate change. Focusing on the start (leaf unfolding) and end (leaf coloring) of plant growing seasons, we show that the recent rapid expansion in ground- and remote sensing- based phenology data acquisition has been highly beneficial and has supported major advances in plant phenology research. Studies using multiple data sources and methods generally agree on the trends of advanced leaf unfolding and delayed leaf coloring due to climate change, yet these trends appear to have decelerated or even reversed in recent years. Our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the plant phenology responses to climate warming is still limited. The interactions between multiple drivers complicate the modeling and prediction of plant phenology changes. Furthermore, changes in plant phenology have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycles and ecosystem feedbacks to climate, yet the quantification of such impacts remains challenging. We suggest that future studies should primarily focus on using new observation tools to improve the understanding of tropical plant phenology, on improving process-based phenology modeling, and on the scaling of phenology from species to landscape-level.}, }
@article {pmid30878946, year = {2019}, author = {Bhutta, ZA and Aimone, A and Akhtar, S}, title = {Climate change and global child health: what can paediatricians do?.}, journal = {Archives of disease in childhood}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/archdischild-2018-316694}, pmid = {30878946}, issn = {1468-2044}, }
@article {pmid30878100, year = {2019}, author = {Sisodiya, SM and Scheffer, IE and Lowenstein, DH and Free, SL}, title = {Why should a neurologist worry about climate change?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Neurology}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {335-336}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-4422(19)30081-X}, pmid = {30878100}, issn = {1474-4465}, }
@article {pmid30877291, year = {2019}, author = {Anderson, GB and Barnes, EA and Bell, ML and Dominici, F}, title = {The future of climate epidemiology: Opportunities for advancing health research in the context of climate change.}, journal = {American journal of epidemiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aje/kwz034}, pmid = {30877291}, issn = {1476-6256}, abstract = {In the coming decades, climate change is expected to dramatically affect communities worldwide, altering the patterns of many ambient exposures and disasters, including extreme temperatures, heat waves, wildfires, droughts, and floods. These exposures in turn can affect risks for a variety of human diseases and health outcomes. Climate epidemiology plays an important role in informing policy related to climate change and its threats to public health. Climate epidemiology leverages deep, integrated collaborations between epidemiologists and climate scientists to understand the current and potential future impacts of climate-related exposures on human health. A variety of recent and ongoing developments in climate science are creating new avenues for epidemiological contributions. Here, we discuss the contributions of climate epidemiology and describe some key current research directions, including research to better characterize uncertainty in climate health projections. We end by outlining three developing areas of climate science that are creating opportunities for high-impact epidemiological advances in the near future: (1) climate attribution studies, (2) subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, and (3) decadal predictions.}, }
@article {pmid30875123, year = {2019}, author = {Foster, S and Leichenko, R and Nguyen, KH and Blake, R and Kunreuther, H and Madajewicz, M and Petkova, EP and Zimmerman, R and Corbin-Mark, C and Yeampierre, E and Tovar, A and Herrera, C and Ravenborg, D}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 6: Community-Based Assessments of Adaptation and Equity.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {126-173}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14009}, pmid = {30875123}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; //New York City Emergency Management/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875122, year = {2019}, author = {Solecki, W and Rosenzweig, C}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 9: Perspectives on a City in a Changing Climate 2008-2018.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {280-305}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14017}, pmid = {30875122}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Emergency Management/ ; //FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875120, year = {2019}, author = {Gornitz, V and Oppenheimer, M and Kopp, R and Orton, P and Buchanan, M and Lin, N and Horton, R and Bader, D}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 3: Sea Level Rise.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {71-94}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14006}, pmid = {30875120}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/ ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875118, year = {2019}, author = {González, JE and Ortiz, L and Smith, BK and Devineni, N and Colle, B and Booth, JF and Ravindranath, A and Rivera, L and Horton, R and Towey, K and Kushnir, Y and Manley, D and Bader, D and Rosenzweig, C}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 2: New Methods for Assessing Extreme Temperatures, Heavy Downpours, and Drought.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {30-70}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14007}, pmid = {30875118}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/ ; //FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875117, year = {2019}, author = {Blake, R and Jacob, K and Yohe, G and Zimmerman, R and Manley, D and Solecki, W and Rosenzweig, C}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 8: Indicators and Monitoring.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {230-279}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14014}, pmid = {30875117}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/ ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875116, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report: Conclusions and Recommendations.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {306-311}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14032}, pmid = {30875116}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; //New York City Emergency Management/ ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875114, year = {2019}, author = {Zimmerman, R and Foster, S and González, JE and Jacob, K and Kunreuther, H and Petkova, EP and Tollerson, E}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 7: Resilience Strategies for Critical Infrastructures and Their Interdependencies.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {174-229}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14010}, pmid = {30875114}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Emergency Management/ ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; //FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875112, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Executive Summary.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {11-21}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14008}, pmid = {30875112}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; //New York City Emergency Management/ ; //FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875111, year = {2019}, author = {Patrick, L and Solecki, W and Gornitz, V and Orton, P and Blumberg, A}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 5: Mapping Climate Risk.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {115-125}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14015}, pmid = {30875111}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/ ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875110, year = {2019}, author = {Rosenzweig, C and Solecki, W}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 1: Introduction.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {22-29}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14004}, pmid = {30875110}, issn = {1749-6632}, }
@article {pmid30875109, year = {2019}, author = {Orton, P and Lin, N and Gornitz, V and Colle, B and Booth, J and Feng, K and Buchanan, M and Oppenheimer, M and Patrick, L}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {95-114}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14011}, pmid = {30875109}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30873791, year = {2018}, author = {Riojas-Rodríguez, H and Quezada-Jiménez, ML and Zúñiga-Bello, P and Hurtado-Díaz, M}, title = {Climate Change and Potential Health Effects in Mexican Children.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {84}, number = {2}, pages = {281-284}, doi = {10.29024/aogh.915}, pmid = {30873791}, issn = {2214-9996}, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is the most important challenge of our time, a long-term global problem and one of the most serious global threats to human health in the future. CC is the expression of changes in temperature and water cycle, floods and drought events, extreme heat waves and sea level rise. Children are particularly vulnerable because they are highly sensitive to climate changes. The main environmental hazards affecting children's health are poor household drinking water quality and availability, lack access to adequate sanitary facilities, poor hygiene practices, outdoor and indoor air pollution, vector-borne diseases, chemical hazards, and unintentional injuries. Except for some unintentional injuries, these environmental hazards are associated to CC.}, }
@article {pmid30873334, year = {2019}, author = {Germond, B and Ha, FW}, title = {Climate change and maritime security narrative: the case of the international maritime organisation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental studies and sciences}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1-12}, doi = {10.1007/s13412-018-0509-2}, pmid = {30873334}, issn = {2190-6483}, abstract = {Both climate change and maritime security are currently ranking high on states' and international organisations' political and governance agendas. However, academics and practitioners alike have hardly tackled the actual interlinkages and dependencies between the two issues. Taking the International Maritime Organization (IMO) as a case study, this article pioneers the use of corpus linguistic method to unravel the nonexistence of a narrative linking climate change impacts and the occurrence of maritime criminality despite some connections in practice. However, direct narrative links between climate change and migration as well as migration and maritime security were found, which can point at an indirect link between climate change and maritime security. The article concludes on the implications of these findings for academics and practitioners alike. The latter are encouraged to reflect on their current narrative in a bid to contribute to a better acknowledgement of the existing links between the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems and aspects of maritime security.}, }
@article {pmid30872720, year = {2019}, author = {Takemura, T and Suzuki, K}, title = {Weak global warming mitigation by reducing black carbon emissions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4419}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-41181-6}, pmid = {30872720}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {JP15H01728//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; TOUGOU program//Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT)/ ; }, abstract = {Reducing black carbon (BC), i.e. soot, in the atmosphere is a potential mitigation measure for climate change before revealing the effect of reducing anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) because BC with shorter lifetime than CO2 absorbs solar and infrared radiation. BC has a strong positive radiative forcing in the atmosphere, as indicated in many previous studies. Here, we show that the decline in surface air temperatures with reduced BC emissions is weaker than would be expected from the magnitude of its instantaneous radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Climate simulations show that the global mean change in surface air temperature per unit of instantaneous radiative forcing of BC at the TOA is about one-eighth that of sulphate aerosols, which cool the climate through scattering solar radiation, without absorption. This is attributed to the positive radiation budget of BC being largely compensated for by rapid atmospheric adjustment, whereas the radiative imbalance due to sulphate aerosols drives a slow response of climate over a long timescale. Regional climate responses to short-lived species are shown to exhibit even more complex characteristics due to their heterogeneous spatial distributions, requiring further analysis in future studies.}, }
@article {pmid30872300, year = {2019}, author = {Whitehorn, J and Yacoub, S}, title = {Global warming and arboviral infections.}, journal = {Clinical medicine (London, England)}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {149-152}, doi = {10.7861/clinmedicine.19-2-149}, pmid = {30872300}, issn = {1473-4893}, abstract = {Climate change is already expanding the geographic footprint of arboviral infections. In this article we consider the impact of climate change on three arboviruses with particular consideration of the effect on Europe.}, }
@article {pmid30870674, year = {2019}, author = {Baskent, EZ}, title = {Exploring the effects of climate change mitigation scenarios on timber, water, biodiversity and carbon values: A case study in Pozantı planning unit, Turkey.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {238}, number = {}, pages = {420-433}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.024}, pmid = {30870674}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This study evaluated the performance of three climate change mitigation management scenarios; business as usual (BAU), low intensity management (LIM) and high intensity management (HIM) to provide ecosystem services. ETCAP simulation model was used to forecast forest development for Pozantı area with 17,603 ha forests in Turkey. Wood production, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration and water provision were the primary ecosystem services. The species composition, natural composition, key habitats and understory vegetation are maintained and small forest openings were left intact for wildlife. Some forest areas were allowed to develop older to provide better opportunities of biodiversity conservation. The increase of carbon stock was related to age class shifts to older stages due mainly to increasing afforestation areas and productivity. The marginal differences in total carbon balance were related to a smaller increase in volume increment in BAU scenario and a higher allocation of harvest to energy production for the LIM and HIM scenarios. The planning scenarios allowed better production of water runoffs with slight differences among the output of management scenarios. The prevailing variable was the areas of afforestation. The impacts of a forest management scenario on ecosystem services highly depend on the development rate and intensity of management interventions.}, }
@article {pmid30868238, year = {2019}, author = {Mabhaudhi, T and Chimonyo, VGP and Hlahla, S and Massawe, F and Mayes, S and Nhamo, L and Modi, AT}, title = {Prospects of orphan crops in climate change.}, journal = {Planta}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00425-019-03129-y}, pmid = {30868238}, issn = {1432-2048}, support = {WRC K5/2717//Water Research Commission (WRC)/ ; K5/2493//Water Research Commission (WRC)/ ; Grant number - 205200/Z/16/Z//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {MAIN CONCLUSION: Orphan crops can contribute to building resilience of marginal cropping systems as a climate chnage adaptation strategy. Orphan crops play an important role in global food and nutrition security, and may have potential to contribute to sustainable food systems under climate change. Owing to reports of their potential under water scarcity, there is an argument to promote them to sustainably address challenges such as increasing drought and water scarcity, food and nutrition insecurity, environmental degradation, and employment creation under climate change. We conducted a scoping review using online databases to identify the prospects of orphan crops to contribute to (1) sustainable and healthy food systems, (2) genetic resources for future crop improvement, and (3) improving agricultural sustainability under climate change. The review found that, as a product of generations of landrace agriculture, several orphan crops are nutritious, resilient, and adapted to niche marginal agricultural environments. Including such orphan crops in the existing monocultural cropping systems could support more sustainable, nutritious, and diverse food systems in marginalised agricultural environments. Orphan crops also represent a broad gene pool for future crop improvement. The reduction in arable land due to climate change offers opportunities to expand the area under their production. Their suitability to marginal niche and low-input environments offers opportunities for low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from an agro-ecosystems, production, and processing perspective. This, together with their status as a sub-set of agro-biodiversity, offers opportunities to address socio-economic and environmental challenges under climate change. With research and development, and policy to support them, orphan crops could play an important role in climate-change adaptation, especially in the global south.}, }
@article {pmid30867993, year = {2019}, author = {Sosa, V and Loera, I and Angulo, DF and Vásquez-Cruz, M and Gándara, E}, title = {Climate change and conservation in a warm North American desert: effect in shrubby plants.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6572}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.6572}, pmid = {30867993}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background: Deserts are biologically rich habitats with a vast array of animals and plants adapted to xeric conditions, and most deserts are among the planet's last remaining areas of total wilderness. Among North American deserts, the Chihuahuan Desert has the highest levels of diversity and endemism. To understand the effect of future climate change on plants distributed in this arid land and propose effective conservation planning, we focused on five endemic shrubby species that characterize the Chihuahuan Desert and used an integrative approach.<br><br>Methods: Ecological niche-based modeling, spatial genetics and ecological resistance analyses were carried out to identify the effect of global warming on the studied five shrubby species. Key areas that need to be preserved were identified taking into account the existing protected areas within the Chihuahuan Desert.<br><br>Results: The extent of future distribution will vary among these species, and on average expansion will occur in the western part of the Chihuahuan Desert. For most species low environmental resistance to gene flow was predicted, while higher future resistance was predicted for one species that would lead to increased population isolation. The highest haplotype diversity was identified in three hotspots. Based on future suitability of habitat and in the haplotype diversity we suggest preserving two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental, located in areas without protection. The third hotspot was detected in the well preserved Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Man and Biosphere Reserve.<br><br>Conclusion: Global climate change will have an effect in arid adapted plants, favoring expansion in the western of the Chihuahuan Desert however negatively affecting others with high ecological resistance disrupting gene flow. Two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental should be protected.}, }
@article {pmid30867474, year = {2019}, author = {Barnard, PL and Erikson, LH and Foxgrover, AC and Hart, JAF and Limber, P and O'Neill, AC and van Ormondt, M and Vitousek, S and Wood, N and Hayden, MK and Jones, JM}, title = {Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4309}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-40742-z}, pmid = {30867474}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comprehensively accounted for dynamic physical drivers such as tidal non-linearity, storms, short-term climate variability, erosion response and consequent flooding responses. Here we present a dynamic modeling approach that estimates climate-driven changes in flood-hazard exposure by integrating the effects of SLR, tides, waves, storms, and coastal change (i.e. beach erosion and cliff retreat). We show that for California, USA, the world's 5th largest economy, over $150 billion of property equating to more than 6% of the state's GDP and 600,000 people could be impacted by dynamic flooding by 2100; a three-fold increase in exposed population than if only SLR and a static coastline are considered. The potential for underestimating societal exposure to coastal flooding is greater for smaller SLR scenarios, up to a seven-fold increase in exposed population and economic interests when considering storm conditions in addition to SLR. These results highlight the importance of including climate-change driven dynamic coastal processes and impacts in both short-term hazard mitigation and long-term adaptation planning.}, }
@article {pmid30867437, year = {2019}, author = {Pino, M and Abarzúa, AM and Astorga, G and Martel-Cea, A and Cossio-Montecinos, N and Navarro, RX and Lira, MP and Labarca, R and LeCompte, MA and Adedeji, V and Moore, CR and Bunch, TE and Mooney, C and Wolbach, WS and West, A and Kennett, JP}, title = {Sedimentary record from Patagonia, southern Chile supports cosmic-impact triggering of biomass burning, climate change, and megafaunal extinctions at 12.8 ka.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4413}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-38089-y}, pmid = {30867437}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {1150738//Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cient&amp;#x00ED;fico y Tecnol&amp;#x00F3;gico (National Fund for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; 1100555//Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cient&amp;#x00ED;fico y Tecnol&amp;#x00F3;gico (National Fund for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; 3170958//Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cient&amp;#x00ED;fico y Tecnol&amp;#x00F3;gico (National Fund for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; }, abstract = {The Younger Dryas (YD) impact hypothesis posits that fragments of a large, disintegrating asteroid/comet struck North America, South America, Europe, and western Asia ~12,800 years ago. Multiple airbursts/impacts produced the YD boundary layer (YDB), depositing peak concentrations of platinum, high-temperature spherules, meltglass, and nanodiamonds, forming an isochronous datum at >50 sites across ~50 million km² of Earth's surface. This proposed event triggered extensive biomass burning, brief impact winter, YD climate change, and contributed to extinctions of late Pleistocene megafauna. In the most extensive investigation south of the equator, we report on a ~12,800-year-old sequence at Pilauco, Chile (~40°S), that exhibits peak YD boundary concentrations of platinum, gold, high-temperature iron- and chromium-rich spherules, and native iron particles rarely found in nature. A major peak in charcoal abundance marks an intense biomass-burning episode, synchronous with dramatic changes in vegetation, including a high-disturbance regime, seasonality in precipitation, and warmer conditions. This is anti-phased with northern-hemispheric cooling at the YD onset, whose rapidity suggests atmospheric linkage. The sudden disappearance of megafaunal remains and dung fungi in the YDB layer at Pilauco correlates with megafaunal extinctions across the Americas. The Pilauco record appears consistent with YDB impact evidence found at sites on four continents.}, }
@article {pmid30866725, year = {2019}, author = {Peek, B}, title = {groundWork Environmental Justice Action Climate Change Letter to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, December 2018.}, journal = {New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1048291119835446}, doi = {10.1177/1048291119835446}, pmid = {30866725}, issn = {1541-3772}, abstract = {groundWork is one of South Africa's leading environmental justice organizations and the local affiliate of Friend of the Earth. It was formed in 1999 to support people's struggles for environmental justice. In the most unequal of countries, groundWork is part of the struggle for an egalitarian society in which people can live well with each other and with the earth. The following letter was sent to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in December 2018 urging him to take a Just Transition approach to climate change policies so that the economic and social transition eliminates poverty, improves public health, and strengthens the nation's democracy.}, }
@article {pmid30865494, year = {2019}, author = {Greenberg, MR}, title = {A Persuasive Presentation Connecting the Dots Between Climate Change and Public Health.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {109}, number = {4}, pages = {527-529}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2019.304989}, pmid = {30865494}, issn = {1541-0048}, }
@article {pmid30864071, year = {2019}, author = {Veldsman, LM and Kylin, H and Bronkhorst, P and Engelbrecht, I and Bouwman, H}, title = {A method to determine the combined effects of climate change (temperature and humidity) and eggshell thickness on water loss from bird eggs.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10653-019-00274-x}, pmid = {30864071}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {General funds//North-West University/ ; }, abstract = {Differences in bird eggshell thicknesses occur due to numerous factors, including thinning due to persistent organic pollutants. Not only does thinning weaken the shell; weaker shells combined with elevated ambient temperature and changes in humidities may result in changes in water loss rates from the egg contents. Therefore, thinner eggshells raise concern of water being lost faster than normal at lower relative humidities, which may affect hatching. To investigate the combined effects, we developed and tested an effective method that measures water loss through different thickness eggshells at controlled temperatures and relative humidities to assist in ascertaining the combined effects of climate change (temperature and humidity) and changes in eggshell thickness on bird reproduction. The fastest rate of loss was at 40% RH at 40 °C (0.1 mL/cm2/day), and the slowest was at 22 °C at 80% RH (0.02 mL/cm2/day). Eggshell thickness had a significant effect on water loss at all humidity treatments, except at the highest temperature and humidity treatment (80% RH and 40 °C). Temperature explained 40% of the variance, RH explained 20%, and interactions between temperature and humidity explained 15% of the variance (repeated-measures, two-way ANOVA). Generalized linear analyses revealed that both factors temperature and humidity contributed significantly in any two-way combinations. We have laid the ground for a system to test the combined effects of temperature and humidity changes associated with climate change and eggshell thinning associated with pollutants, on water loss across eggshells.}, }
@article {pmid30863672, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, CJ and Li, QF and Wan, JZ}, title = {Potential invasive plant expansion in global ecoregions under climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6479}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.6479}, pmid = {30863672}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Climate change is increasing the risk of invasive plant expansion worldwide. However, few studies have specified the relationship between invasive plant expansion and ecoregions at the global scale under climate change. To address this gap, we provide risk maps highlighting the response of invasive plant species (IPS), with a focus on terrestrial and freshwater ecoregions to climate change, and further explore the climatic features of ecosystems with a high potential for invasive plant expansion under climate change. We use species distribution modelling to predict the suitable habitats of IPS with records at the global scale. Hotspots with a potential risk of IPS (such as aquatic plants, trees, and herbs) expanding in global ecoregions were distributed in Northern Europe, the UK, South America, North America, southwest China, and New Zealand. Temperature changes were related to the potential of IPS expansion in global ecoregions under climate change. Coastal and high latitude ecoregions, such as temperate forests, alpine vegetation, and coastal rivers, were severely infiltrated by IPS under climate change. Monitoring strategies should be defined for climate change for IPS, particularly for aquatic plants, trees, and herbs in the biomes of regions with coastal or high latitudes. The role of climate change on the potential for IPS expansion should be taken into consideration for biological conservation and risk evaluation of IPS at ecoregional scales.}, }
@article {pmid30863509, year = {2019}, author = {Nyahunda, L and Tirivangasi, HM}, title = {Challenges faced by rural people in mitigating the effects of climate change in the Mazungunye communal lands, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {596}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.596}, pmid = {30863509}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {The phenomenon of climate change is one of the most contested and debated concepts globally. Some governments still deny the existence of climate change and its impact on rural-urban areas around the world. However, the effects of climate change have been visible in rural Zimbabwe, with some communities facing food insecurity, water scarcity and loss of livestock. Climate change has impacted negatively on agriculture, which is the main source of livelihood in Zimbabwe's rural communities. This study aims at exploring challenges faced by rural people in mitigating the effects of climate change in the Mazungunye community, Masvingo Province, in Zimbabwe. The objectives of the study were to identify the challenges that impede effective adaptation of rural people to climate change hazards and to examine their perceptions on how to foster effective adaptation. The researchers conducted a qualitative research study guided by descriptive and exploratory research designs. Purposive sampling was employed to draw the population of the study. The population sample consisted of 26 research participants drawn from members of the community. Data was collected through in-depth individual interviews and focus group discussions. Thematic content analysis was used to analyse data. The findings of the study revealed the following challenges: unpredictability of indigenous knowledge systems, lack of resources and technoscience adaptive methods, lack of support to implement viable mitigation strategies, lack of information about resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change. This study has significance to policymakers and other stakeholders concerned with devising and implementing policies and programmes that are responsive to rural people's needs in the climate change terrain, tapping into their presenting challenges as a departure point for intervention. The study recommended that the most important way to help rural poor people adapt to climate change is through the provision of information; immediate response to needs and climate-smart agricultural policies.}, }
@article {pmid30863507, year = {2019}, author = {Mondal, MSH}, title = {The implications of population growth and climate change on sustainable development in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {535}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.535}, pmid = {30863507}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Bangladesh is characterised by its large population on a small land, rapid and unplanned urbanisation, rising urban inequalities, food and nutritional insecurity and lower level of resilience to climate change. These combined effects are major threats to food security of the country in the near future. This paper examined the implications of population growth and climate change on sustainable development of Bangladesh. This research was based on the analysis of chronological data and synthesis of literature on population growth, greenhouse gases emission, climate change, food security and sustainable development, mainly contextualised on Bangladesh. The analysis found that the population of Bangladesh has almost doubled between 1980 and 2015. The country shared around 2.2% (in 2013) of global population and contributed only 0.19% of global carbon dioxide emission. On the contrary, climate change is the biggest challenge for the country. An increase in temperature could decline rice and wheat production. Moreover, average monsoon rainfall would be increased as a result of increased temperature. The increase in temperature and rainfall may lead to early arrival and late departure of the monsoon season or an increase in mean daily rainfall intensity. Population growth and climate change have multiple implications on development. Therefore, sustainable development may be difficult to attain if climate change continues to jeopardise economic growth, environmental stability as well as the social progress of Bangladesh.}, }
@article {pmid30862928, year = {2019}, author = {Mega, ER}, title = {Cuba acknowledges climate change threats in its constitution.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {567}, number = {7747}, pages = {155}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00760-3}, pmid = {30862928}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30862793, year = {2019}, author = {Valenzuela, N and Literman, R and Neuwald, JL and Mizoguchi, B and Iverson, JB and Riley, JL and Litzgus, JD}, title = {Extreme thermal fluctuations from climate change unexpectedly accelerate demographic collapse of vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4254}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-40597-4}, pmid = {30862793}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {IOS-0743284//NSF | BIO | Division of Integrative Organismal Systems (IOS)/ ; IOS-1555999//NSF | BIO | Division of Integrative Organismal Systems (IOS)/ ; MCB-0815354//NSF | BIO | Division of Molecular and Cellular Biosciences (MCB)/ ; MCB-1244355//NSF | BIO | Division of Molecular and Cellular Biosciences (MCB)/ ; }, abstract = {Global climate is warming rapidly, threatening vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) by disrupting sex ratios and other traits. Less understood are the effects of increased thermal fluctuations predicted to accompany climate change. Greater fluctuations could accelerate feminization of species that produce females under warmer conditions (further endangering TSD animals), or counter it (reducing extinction risk). Here we use novel experiments exposing eggs of Painted Turtles (Chrysemys picta) to replicated profiles recorded in field nests plus mathematically-modified profiles of similar shape but wider oscillations, and develop a new mathematical model for analysis. We show that broadening fluctuations around naturally male-producing (cooler) profiles feminizes developing embryos, whereas embryos from warmer profiles remain female or die. This occurs presumably because wider oscillations around cooler profiles expose embryos to very low temperatures that inhibit development, and to feminizing temperatures where most embryogenesis accrues. Likewise, embryos incubated under broader fluctuations around warmer profiles experience mostly feminizing temperatures, some dangerously high (which increase mortality), and fewer colder values that are insufficient to induce male development. Therefore, as thermal fluctuations escalate with global warming, the feminization of TSD turtle populations could accelerate, facilitating extinction by demographic collapse. Aggressive global CO2 mitigation scenarios (RCP2.6) could prevent these risks, while intermediate actions (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios) yield moderate feminization, highlighting the peril that insufficient reductions of greenhouse gas emissions pose for TSD taxa. If our findings are generalizable, TSD squamates, tuatara, and crocodilians that produce males at warmer temperatures could suffer accelerated masculinization, underscoring the broad taxonomic threats of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30858310, year = {2019}, author = {Davis, KT and Dobrowski, SZ and Higuera, PE and Holden, ZA and Veblen, TT and Rother, MT and Parks, SA and Sala, A and Maneta, MP}, title = {Wildfires and climate change push low-elevation forests across a critical climate threshold for tree regeneration.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {13}, pages = {6193-6198}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1815107116}, pmid = {30858310}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate change is increasing fire activity in the western United States, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in vegetation communities. Wildfire can catalyze vegetation change by killing adult trees that could otherwise persist in climate conditions no longer suitable for seedling establishment and survival. Recently documented declines in postfire conifer recruitment in the western United States may be an example of this phenomenon. However, the role of annual climate variation and its interaction with long-term climate trends in driving these changes is poorly resolved. Here we examine the relationship between annual climate and postfire tree regeneration of two dominant, low-elevation conifers (ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir) using annually resolved establishment dates from 2,935 destructively sampled trees from 33 wildfires across four regions in the western United States. We show that regeneration had a nonlinear response to annual climate conditions, with distinct thresholds for recruitment based on vapor pressure deficit, soil moisture, and maximum surface temperature. At dry sites across our study region, seasonal to annual climate conditions over the past 20 years have crossed these thresholds, such that conditions have become increasingly unsuitable for regeneration. High fire severity and low seed availability further reduced the probability of postfire regeneration. Together, our results demonstrate that climate change combined with high severity fire is leading to increasingly fewer opportunities for seedlings to establish after wildfires and may lead to ecosystem transitions in low-elevation ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir forests across the western United States.}, }
@article {pmid30858188, year = {2019}, author = {Mercer, C}, title = {Medical students call for more education on climate change.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {191}, number = {10}, pages = {E291-E292}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-5717}, pmid = {30858188}, issn = {1488-2329}, }
@article {pmid30856572, year = {2019}, author = {Fang, X and Guo, X and Zhang, C and Shao, H and Zhu, S and Li, Z and Feng, X and He, B}, title = {Contributions of climate change to the terrestrial carbon stock of the arid region of China: A multi-dataset analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {668}, number = {}, pages = {631-644}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.408}, pmid = {30856572}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Dryland ecosystems have been threatened in recent decades by rapid climate change. However, the effects of climate change and rising CO2 levels on the terrestrial carbon stock of the arid region of China remain unclear. In this study, we used three climate reanalysis datasets to drive an arid ecosystem model (AEM), which we used to assess uncertainties in spatial climate datasets. All simulations suggest that the arid region of China acted as a carbon sink (0.20-0.34 Pg C) from 1980 to 2014. However, we found large uncertainties in the spatial pattern of carbon stocks during this period, especially in northern Xinjiang and western Inner Mongolia. These uncertainties are related to changes in precipitation. To reduce the uncertainty of carbon stock assessment results in the arid region of China, efforts should be implemented to improve the reliability of climate data in northern Xinjiang and western Inner Mongolia. Specifically, China's policy makers should pay close attention to climate change and ecosystem health in southwestern Xinjiang. According to our study, this area experienced significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature from 1980 to 2014. The severe ecosystem degradation that occurred will very likely continue into the future. In addition, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset may overestimate ecosystem carbon sinks as this dataset overestimates the increase in precipitation in the arid region of China. Therefore, it is advisable to be cautious when using the CFSR dataset in ecological studies in northern Eurasian dryland areas.}, }
@article {pmid30853924, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, S and Hurlstone, MJ and Leviston, Z and Walker, I and Lawrence, C}, title = {Climate Change From a Distance: An Analysis of Construal Level and Psychological Distance From Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {230}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00230}, pmid = {30853924}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {The public perception of climate change as abstract and distant may undermine climate action. According to construal level theory, whether a phenomenon is perceived as psychologically distant or close is associated with whether it is construed as abstract or concrete, respectively. Previous work has established a link between psychological distance and climate action, but the associated role of construal level has yet to be explored in depth. In two representative surveys of Australians (N = 217 and N = 216), and one experiment (N = 319), we tested whether construal level and psychological distance from climate change predicted pro-environmental intentions and policy support, and whether manipulating distance and construal increased pro-environmental behaviors such as donations. Results showed that psychological closeness to climate change predicted more engagement in pro-environmental behaviors, while construal level produced inconsistent results, and manipulations of both variables failed to produce increases in pro-environmental behaviors. In contrast with the central tenet of construal level theory, construal level was unrelated to psychological distance in all three studies. Our findings suggest that the hypothesized relationship between construal level and psychological distance may not hold in the context of climate change, and that it may be difficult to change pro-environmental behavior by manipulating these variables.}, }
@article {pmid30852437, year = {2019}, author = {Adhikari, K and Owens, PR and Libohova, Z and Miller, DM and Wills, SA and Nemecek, J}, title = {Assessing soil organic carbon stock of Wisconsin, USA and its fate under future land use and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {667}, number = {}, pages = {833-845}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.420}, pmid = {30852437}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Carbon stored in soils contributes to a variety of soil functions, including biomass production, water storage and filtering, biodiversity maintenance, and many other ecosystem services. Understanding soil organic carbon (SOC) spatial distribution and projection of its future condition is essential for future CO2 emission estimates and management options for storing carbon. However, modeling SOC spatiotemporal dynamics is challenging due to the inherent spatial heterogeneity and data limitation. The present study developed a spatially explicit prediction model in which the spatial relationship between SOC observation and seventeen environmental variables was established using the Cubist regression tree algorithm. The model was used to compile a baseline SOC stock map for the top 30 cm soil depth in the State of Wisconsin (WI) at a 90 m × 90 m grid resolution. Temporal SOC trend was assessed by comparing baseline and future SOC stock maps based on the space-for-time substitution model. SOC prediction for future considers land use, precipitation and temperature for the year 2050 at medium (A1B) CO2 emissions scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Field soil observations were related to factors that are known to influence SOC distribution using the digital soil mapping framework. The model was validated on 25% test profiles (R2: 0.38; RMSE: 0.64; ME: -0.03) that were not used during model training that used the remaining 75% of the data (R2: 0.76; RMSE: 0.40; ME: -0.006). In addition, maps of the model error, and areal extent of Cubist prediction rules were reported. The model identified soil parent material and land use as key drivers of SOC distribution including temperature and precipitation. Among the terrain attributes, elevation, mass-balance index, mid-slope position, slope-length factor and wind effect were important. Results showed that Wisconsin soils had an average baseline SOC stock of 90 Mg ha-1 and the distribution was highly variable (CV: 64%). It was estimated that WI soils would have an additional 20 Mg ha-1 SOC by the year 2050 under changing land use and climate. Histosols and Spodosols were expected to lose 19 Mg ha-1 and 4 Mg ha-1, respectively, while Mollisols were expected to accumulate the largest SOC stock (62 Mg ha-1). All land-use types would be accumulating SOC by 2050 except for wetlands (-34 Mg C ha-1). This study found that Wisconsin soils will continue to sequester more carbon in the coming decades and most of the Driftless Area will be sequestering the greatest SOC (+63 Mg C ha-1). Most of the SOC would be lost from the Northern Lakes and Forests ecological zone (-12 Mg C ha-1). The study highlighted areas of potential C sequestration and areas under threat of C loss. The maps generated in this study would be highly useful in farm management and environmental policy decisions at different spatial levels in Wisconsin.}, }
@article {pmid30852195, year = {2019}, author = {Novak, T and Godrijan, J and Pfannkuchen, DM and Djakovac, T and Medić, N and Ivančić, I and Mlakar, M and Gašparović, B}, title = {Global warming and oligotrophication lead to increased lipid production in marine phytoplankton.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {668}, number = {}, pages = {171-183}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.372}, pmid = {30852195}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Earth temperature is rising and oligotrophication is becoming apparent even in coastal seas. In this changing environment, phytoplankton use carbon and nutrients to form important biomolecules, including lipids. However, the link between lipid production and changing environment is still unexplored. Therefore, we investigated the phytoplankton lipid production in the diatom Chaetoceros pseudocurvisetus cultures under controlled temperatures ranging from 10 to 30 °C and nutrient regimes mimicking oligotrophic and eutrophic conditions. Results were compared to plankton community's lipid production in the northern Adriatic at two stations considered as oligotrophic and mesotrophic during an annual monthly sampling. In order to gain detailed information on the investigated system, we supplemented lipid data with chlorophyll a concentrations, phytoplankton taxonomy, cell abundances and nutrient concentration along with hydrographic parameters. We found enhanced particulate lipid production at higher temperatures, and substantially higher lipid production in oligotrophic conditions. Enhanced lipid production has two opposing roles in carbon sequestration; it can act as a retainer or a sinker. Lipid remodeling, including change in ratio of phospholipids and glycolipids, is more affected by the nutrient status, than the temperature increase. Triacylglycerol accumulation was observed under the nitrogen starvation.}, }
@article {pmid30850880, year = {2019}, author = {Rahman, HMT and Hickey, GM}, title = {Assessing Institutional Responses to Climate Change Impacts in the North-Eastern Floodplains of Bangladesh.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01155-w}, pmid = {30850880}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Bangladesh encounters diverse climate change impacts at different scales, which can severely affect rural communities and livelihoods. In response, the government of Bangladesh has initiated a number of institutional interventions through development plans to better support sustainable adaptation. There have, however, been relatively few assessments of how these interventions have impacted sustainable local adaptation. Focusing on the highly climate-affected north-eastern floodplain region of Bangladesh, this paper presents the results of a literature synthesis supported by primary field data to identify how existing policy barriers can threaten institutional responses to climate change impacts, while institutional rigidity and the non-inclusiveness of bureaucratic polity work to undermine efficiency, effectiveness, and equitability-some important considerations for sustainable adaptation. Our results point toward the need for public policy to better enable broader public participation in the design, implementation, and evaluation of adaptation plans.}, }
@article {pmid30848903, year = {2019}, author = {Henry, CL and Pratson, LF}, title = {Differentiating the Effects of Climate Change-Induced Temperature and Streamflow Changes on the Vulnerability of Once-Through Thermoelectric Power Plants.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {53}, number = {7}, pages = {3969-3976}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.8b05718}, pmid = {30848903}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Thermoelectric power plants with once-through cooling systems generated 30% (∼300 GW) of U.S. electricity in 2016. Factors that reduce once-through cooling capacity and thus power output are environmental regulations, warming surface waters, and drought. The latter two may become more frequent as global climate changes. Previous research indicates that reduction in power plant capacity caused by environmental regulations can be significant while that by surface water warming is minor. Here, we address the effect of droughts on power output, which until now has remained conflated with temperature impacts. We do this using a widely used electricity generation model alongside hourly operational and meteorological data for 52 once-through plants located across the U.S. The effect of drought on plant output is examined for different water-availability and temperature scenarios, with and without regulations on plant water discharge. We find that if surface waters warm 3 °C and river discharges drop 20%, droughts would account for ≤20% of total capacity reduction depending on the plant, warming surface waters ≤2.3%, and environmental regulations up to 80%. This suggests that maintaining environmental regulations will require the continued conversion of plant cooling systems from once-through to recirculating, and mitigating climate impacts will require more stringent drought-specific watershed management.}, }
@article {pmid30847111, year = {2019}, author = {Walsh, ES and Vierling, KT and Strand, E and Bartowitz, K and Hudiburg, TW}, title = {Climate change, woodpeckers, and forests: Current trends and future modeling needs.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {2305-2319}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4876}, pmid = {30847111}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The structure and composition of forest ecosystems are expected to shift with climate-induced changes in precipitation, temperature, fire, carbon mitigation strategies, and biological disturbance. These factors are likely to have biodiversity implications. However, climate-driven forest ecosystem models used to predict changes to forest structure and composition are not coupled to models used to predict changes to biodiversity. We proposed integrating woodpecker response (biodiversity indicator) with forest ecosystem models. Woodpeckers are a good indicator species of forest ecosystem dynamics, because they are ecologically constrained by landscape-scale forest components, such as composition, structure, disturbance regimes, and management activities. In addition, they are correlated with forest avifauna community diversity. In this study, we explore integrating woodpecker and forest ecosystem climate models. We review climate-woodpecker models and compare the predicted responses to observed climate-induced changes. We identify inconsistencies between observed and predicted responses, explore the modeling causes, and identify the models pertinent to integration that address the inconsistencies. We found that predictions in the short term are not in agreement with observed trends for 7 of 15 evaluated species. Because niche constraints associated with woodpeckers are a result of complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and disturbance, we hypothesize that the lack of adequate representation of these processes in the current broad-scale climate-woodpecker models results in model-data mismatch. As a first step toward improvement, we suggest a conceptual model of climate-woodpecker-forest modeling for integration. The integration model provides climate-driven forest ecosystem modeling with a measure of biodiversity while retaining the feedback between climate and vegetation in woodpecker climate change modeling.}, }
@article {pmid30847100, year = {2019}, author = {Yi, F and Wang, Z and Baskin, CC and Baskin, JM and Ye, R and Sun, H and Zhang, Y and Ye, X and Liu, G and Yang, X and Huang, Z}, title = {Seed germination responses to seasonal temperature and drought stress are species-specific but not related to seed size in a desert steppe: Implications for effect of climate change on community structure.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {2149-2159}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4909}, pmid = {30847100}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Investigating how seed germination of multiple species in an ecosystem responds to environmental conditions is crucial for understanding the mechanisms for community structure and biodiversity maintenance. However, knowledge of seed germination response of species to environmental conditions is still scarce at the community level. We hypothesized that responses of seed germination to environmental conditions differ among species at the community level, and that germination response is not correlated with seed size. To test this hypothesis, we determined the response of seed germination of 20 common species in the Siziwang Desert Steppe, China, to seasonal temperature regimes (representing April, May, June, and July) and drought stress (0, -0.003, -0.027, -0.155, and -0.87 MPa). Seed germination percentage increased with increasing temperature regime, but Allium ramosum, Allium tenuissimum, Artemisia annua, Artemisia mongolica,Artemisia scoparia, Artemisia sieversiana, Bassia dasyphylla, Kochia prastrata, and Neopallasia pectinata germinated to >60% in the lowest temperature regime (April). Germination decreased with increasing water stress, but Allium ramosum, Artemisia annua, Artemisia scoparia, Bassia dasyphylla, Heteropappus altaicus, Kochia prastrata, Neopallasia pectinata, and Potentilla tanacetifolia germinated to near 60% at -0.87 MPa. Among these eight species, germination of six was tolerant to both temperature and water stress. Mean germination percentage in the four temperature regimes and the five water potentials was not significantly correlated with seed mass or seed area, which were highly correlated. Our results suggest that the species-specific germination responses to environmental conditions are important in structuring the desert steppe community and have implications for predicting community structure under climate change. Thus, the predicted warmer and dryer climate will favor germination of drought-tolerant species, resulting in altered proportions of germinants of different species and subsequently change in community composition of the desert steppe.}, }
@article {pmid30847064, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, Y and Clauzel, C and Li, J and Xue, Y and Zhang, Y and Wu, G and Giraudoux, P and Li, L and Li, D}, title = {Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province, China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {1680-1690}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4815}, pmid = {30847064}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species' habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least-cost model for the current period (1960-1990) and the 2050s (2041-2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least-cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km2 of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km2 and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km2 and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high-priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.}, }
@article {pmid30847059, year = {2019}, author = {Liles, MJ and Peterson, TR and Seminoff, JA and Gaos, AR and Altamirano, E and Henríquez, AV and Gadea, V and Chavarría, S and Urteaga, J and Wallace, BP and Peterson, MJ}, title = {Potential limitations of behavioral plasticity and the role of egg relocation in climate change mitigation for a thermally sensitive endangered species.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {1603-1622}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4774}, pmid = {30847059}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is widely considered a major threat to global biodiversity, such that the ability of a species to adapt will determine its likelihood of survival. Egg-burying reptiles that exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination, such as critically endangered hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), are particularly vulnerable to changes in thermal regimes because nest temperatures affect offspring sex, fitness, and survival. It is unclear whether hawksbills possess sufficient behavioral plasticity of nesting traits (i.e., redistribution of nesting range, shift in nesting phenology, changes in nest-site selection, and adjustment of nest depth) to persist within their climatic niche or whether accelerated changes in thermal conditions of nesting beaches will outpace phenotypic adaption and require human intervention. For these reasons, we estimated sex ratios and physical condition of hatchling hawksbills under natural and manipulated conditions and generated and analyzed thermal profiles of hawksbill nest environments within highly threatened mangrove ecosystems at Bahía de Jiquilisco, El Salvador, and Estero Padre Ramos, Nicaragua. Hawksbill clutches protected in situ at both sites incubated at higher temperatures, yielded lower hatching success, produced a higher percentage of female hatchlings, and produced less fit offspring than clutches relocated to hatcheries. We detected cooler sand temperatures in woody vegetation (i.e., coastal forest and small-scale plantations of fruit trees) and hatcheries than in other monitored nest environments, with higher temperatures at the deeper depth. Our findings indicate that mangrove ecosystems present a number of biophysical (e.g., insular nesting beaches and shallow water table) and human-induced (e.g., physical barriers and deforestation) constraints that, when coupled with the unique life history of hawksbills in this region, may limit behavioral compensatory responses by the species to projected temperature increases at nesting beaches. We contend that egg relocation can contribute significantly to recovery efforts in a changing climate under appropriate circumstances.}, }
@article {pmid30846753, year = {2019}, author = {Haszpra, T and Herein, M}, title = {Ensemble-based analysis of the pollutant spreading intensity induced by climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3896}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-40451-7}, pmid = {30846753}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The intensity of the atmospheric large-scale spreading can be characterized by a measure of chaotic systems, called topological entropy. A pollutant cloud stretches in an exponential manner in time, and in the atmospheric context the topological entropy corresponds to the stretching rate of its length. To explore the plethora of possible climate evolutions, we investigate here pollutant spreading in climate realizations of two climate models to learn what the typical spreading behavior is over a climate change. An overall decrease in the areal mean of the stretching rate is found to be typical in the ensembles of both climate models. This results in larger pollutant concentrations for several geographical regions implying higher environmental risk. A strong correlation is found between the time series of the ensemble mean values of the stretching rate and of the absolute value of the relative vorticity. Here we show that, based on the obtained relationship, the typical intensity of the spreading in an arbitrary climate realization can be estimated by using only the ensemble means of the relative vorticity data of a climate model.}, }
@article {pmid30843528, year = {2019}, author = {Saracci, R}, title = {[Reflections on time. From the clinic to climate change.].}, journal = {Recenti progressi in medicina}, volume = {110}, number = {2}, pages = {61-62}, doi = {10.1701/3112.30998}, pmid = {30843528}, issn = {2038-1840}, abstract = {The often heard 'time is money' formula is today generally applied to all human activities: it implies that a gain in time is a gain in money, with the consequence of introducing a generalized pressure to minimize the execution time of all and every human operation. There are however processes that are just destroyed when their execution speed becomes faster and faster: any music piece, whose time structure is essential, is a prototype of these phenomena. Two apparently remote phenomena as the doctor-patient interaction and the control of global climatic change belong for different reasons to the same category of phenomena the priority of which cannot be derived using the 'time is money' formula but requires - before any accounting calculation - considering their intrinsic value for health and medicine.}, }
@article {pmid30843297, year = {2019}, author = {Wiens, JJ and Camacho, A and Goldberg, A and Jezkova, T and Kaplan, ME and Lambert, SM and Miller, EC and Streicher, JW and Walls, RL}, title = {Climate-change, extinction, and Sky Island biogeography in a montane lizard.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/mec.15073}, pmid = {30843297}, issn = {1365-294X}, abstract = {Around the world, many species are confined to &quot;Sky Islands,&quot; with different populations in isolated patches of montane habitat. How does this pattern arise? One scenario is that montane species were widespread in lowlands when climates were cooler, and were isolated by local extinction caused by warming conditions. This scenario implies that many montane species may be highly susceptible to anthropogenic warming. Here, we test this scenario in a montane lizard (Sceloporus jarrovii) from the Madrean Sky Islands of southeastern Arizona. We combined data from field surveys, climate, population genomics, and physiology. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that this species' current distribution is explained by local extinction caused by past climate change. However, our results for this species differ from simple expectations in several ways: (1) their absence at lower elevations is related to warm winter temperatures, not hot summer temperatures; (2) they appear to exclude a low-elevation congener from higher elevations, not the converse; (3) they are apparently absent from many climatically suitable but low mountain ranges, seemingly &quot;pushed off the top&quot; by climates even warmer than those today; (4) despite the potential for dispersal among ranges during recent glacial periods (~18,000 years ago), populations in different ranges diverged ~4.5-0.5 million years ago and remained largely distinct; and (5) body temperatures are inversely related to climatic temperatures among sites. These results may have implications for many other Sky Island systems. More broadly, we suggest that Sky Island species may be relevant for predicting responses to future warming. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30842886, year = {2019}, author = {Davis, BE and Cocherell, DE and Sommer, T and Baxter, RD and Hung, TC and Todgham, AE and Fangue, NA}, title = {Sensitivities of an endemic, endangered California smelt and two non-native fishes to serial increases in temperature and salinity: implications for shifting community structure with climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coy076}, doi = {10.1093/conphys/coy076}, pmid = {30842886}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {In many aquatic systems, native fishes are in decline and the factors responsible are often elusive. In the San Francisco Estuary (SFE) in California, interactions among native and non-native species are key factors contributing to the decline in abundance of endemic, endangered Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). Climate change and drought-related stressors are further exacerbating declines. To assess how multiple environmental changes affect the physiology of native Delta Smelt and non-native Mississippi Silverside (Menidia beryllina) and Largemouth Bass (Micropterus salmoides), fishes were exposed to serial exposures of a single stressor (elevated temperature or salinity) followed by two stressors (elevated temperature and salinity) to determine how a single stressor affects the capacity to cope with the addition of a second stressor. Critical thermal maximum (CTMax; a measure of upper temperature tolerance) was determined after 0, 2, 4 and 7 days following single and multiple stressors of elevated temperature (16°C vs. 20°C) and salinity (2.4 vs. 8-12 ppt, depending on species). Under control conditions, non-native fishes had significantly higher CTMax than the native Delta Smelt. An initial temperature or salinity stressor did not negatively affect the ability of any species to tolerate a subsequent multiple stressor. While elevated salinity had little effect on CTMax, a 4°C increase in temperature increased CTMax. Bass experienced an additive effect of increased temperature and salinity on CTMax, such that CTMax further increased under multiple stressors. In addition, Bass demonstrated physiological sensitivity to multiple stressors demonstrated by changes in hematocrit and plasma osmolality, whereas the physiology of Silversides remained unaffected. Non-native Bass and Mississippi Silversides showed consistently higher thermal tolerance limits than the native Delta Smelt, supporting their abundance in warmer SFE habitats. Continued increases in SFE water temperatures predicted with climate change may further impact endangered Delta Smelt populations directly if habitat temperatures exceed thermal limits.}, }
@article {pmid30842480, year = {2019}, author = {Kubicek, A and Breckling, B and Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Reuter, H}, title = {Climate change drives trait-shifts in coral reef communities.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3721}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-38962-4}, pmid = {30842480}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {FL120100066//Department of Education and Training | Australian Research Council (ARC)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to have profound, partly unforeseeable effects on the composition of functional traits of complex ecosystems, such as coral reefs, and some ecosystem properties are at risk of disappearing. This study applies a novel spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore three critical life history traits of corals: heat tolerance, competitiveness and growth performance under various environmental settings. Building upon these findings, we test the adaptation potential required by a coral community in order to not only survive but also retain its diversity by the end of this century under different IPCC climate scenarios. Even under the most favourable IPCC scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 2.6), model results indicate that shifts in the trait space are likely and coral communities will mainly consist of small numbers of temperature-tolerant and fast-growing species. Species composition of coral communities is likely to be determined by heat tolerance, with competitiveness most likely playing a subordinate role. To sustain ~15% of current coral cover under a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century (RCP 4.5), coral systems would have to accommodate temperature increases of 0.1-0.15 °C per decade, assuming that periodic extreme thermal events occurred every 8 years. These required adaptation rates are unprecedented and unlikely, given corals' life-history characteristics.}, }
@article {pmid30842430, year = {2019}, author = {Beetge, L and Krüger, K}, title = {Drought and heat waves associated with climate change affect performance of the potato aphid Macrosiphum euphorbiae.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3645}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-37493-8}, pmid = {30842430}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {N/A//University of Pretoria (Universiteit van Pretoria)/ ; }, abstract = {The combined effect of drought and heat waves on insect-plant interactions is complex and not fully understood. Insects may indirectly benefit from water-deficit stress through increased plant nitrogen levels. Heat stress may have a direct negative effect, yet insect performance may be improved when day-time heat is followed by cooler night temperatures. We show that moderate water-deficit stress (25-30% pot capacity) and high day-night temperatures (30/20 °C) affected Macrosiphum euphorbiae on potato (Solanum tuberosum) differently than their interactions. Water stress lowered stomatal conductance, and both water and heat stress reduced leaf area. The effect of water stress on nymphal and adult survival depended on temperature. Water stress added to reduced nymphal survival at high but not current (25/15 °C) day-night temperatures. Adult survival at high temperatures was reduced only when combined with water stress. Water stress and high temperatures independently but not interactively reduced the number of daily offspring. Moderate water stress when combined with high temperatures had a negative bottom-up effect on aphid survival even though lower night temperatures aided in the recovery from direct heat stress. Our study illustrates the importance of combining multiple stressors to better understand their impact on insect-plant interactions in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30839015, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {Environmental effects and interactions of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change: 2018 assessment.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {601}, doi = {10.1039/c8pp90066c}, pmid = {30839015}, issn = {1474-9092}, }
@article {pmid30836888, year = {2019}, author = {Hamilton, CD and Vacquié-Garcia, J and Kovacs, KM and Ims, RA and Kohler, J and Lydersen, C}, title = {Contrasting changes in space use induced by climate change in two Arctic marine mammal species.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {20180834}, doi = {10.1098/rsbl.2018.0834}, pmid = {30836888}, issn = {1744-957X}, abstract = {Global warming is inducing major environmental changes in the Arctic. These changes will differentially affect species owing to differences in climate sensitivity and behavioural plasticity. Arctic endemic marine mammals are expected to be impacted significantly by ongoing changes in their key habitats owing to their long life cycles and dependence on ice. Herein, unique biotelemetry datasets for ringed seals (RS; Pusa hispida) and white whales (WW; Delphinapterus leucas) from Svalbard, Norway, spanning two decades (1995-2016) are used to investigate how these species have responded to reduced sea-ice cover and increased Atlantic water influxes. Tidal glacier fronts were traditionally important foraging areas for both species. Following a period with dramatic environmental change, RS now spend significantly more time near tidal glaciers, where Arctic prey presumably still concentrate. Conversely, WW spend significantly less time near tidal glacier fronts and display spatial patterns that suggest that they are foraging on Atlantic fishes that are new to the region. Differences in levels of dietary specialization and overall behavioural plasticity are likely reasons for similar environmental pressures affecting these species differently. Climate change adjustments through behavioural plasticity will be vital for species survival in the Arctic, given the rapidity of change and limited dispersal options.}, }
@article {pmid30835141, year = {2019}, author = {Heaney, AK and Carrión, D and Burkart, K and Lesk, C and Jack, D}, title = {Climate Change and Physical Activity: Estimated Impacts of Ambient Temperatures on Bikeshare Usage in New York City.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {127}, number = {3}, pages = {37002}, doi = {10.1289/EHP4039}, pmid = {30835141}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Physical activity is one of the best disease prevention strategies, and it is influenced by environmental factors such as temperature.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We aimed to illuminate the relation between ambient temperature and bikeshare usage and to project how climate change-induced increasing ambient temperatures may influence active transportation in New York City.<br><br>METHODS: The analysis leverages Citi Bike® bikeshare data to estimate participation in outdoor bicycling in New York City. Exposure-response functions are estimated for the relation between daily temperature and bike usage from 2013 to 2017. The estimated exposure-response relation is combined with temperature outputs from 21 climate models (run with emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to explore how climate change may influence future bike utilization.<br><br>RESULTS: Estimated daily hours and distance ridden significantly increased as temperatures increased, but then declined at temperatures above 26-28°C. Bike usage may increase by up to 3.1% by 2070 due to climate change. Future ridership increases during the winter, spring, and fall may more than offset future declines in summer ridership.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Evidence suggesting nonlinear impacts of rising temperatures on health-promoting bicycle ridership demonstrates how challenging it is to anticipate the health consequences of climate change. We project increases in bicycling by mid-century in NYC, but this trend may reverse as temperatures continue to rise further into the future. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4039.}, }
@article {pmid30833952, year = {2019}, author = {Whipple, AV and Cobb, NS and Gehring, CA and Mopper, S and Flores-Rentería, L and Whitham, TG}, title = {Long-Term Studies Reveal Differential Responses to Climate Change for Trees Under Soil- or Herbivore-Related Stress.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {132}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00132}, pmid = {30833952}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Worldwide, trees are confronting increased temperature and aridity, exacerbating susceptibility to herbivory. Long-term studies comparing patterns of plant performance through drought can help identify variation among and within populations in vulnerability to climate change and herbivory. We use long-term monitoring data to examine our overarching hypothesis that the negative impacts of poor soil and herbivore susceptibility would be compounded by severe drought. We studied pinyon pine, Pinus edulis, a widespread southwestern tree species that has suffered extensive climate-change related mortality. We analyzed data on mortality, growth, male reproduction, and herbivory collected for 14-32 years in three areas with distinct soil-types. We used standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as a climate proxy that summarizes the impacts of drought due to precipitation and temperature variation on semi-arid forests. Several key findings emerged: (1) Plant performance measurements did not support our hypothesis that trees growing in stressful, coarse-textured soils would suffer more than trees growing in finer-textured soils. Stem growth at the area with coarse, young cinder soils (area one) responded only weakly to drought, while stem growth on more developed soils with sedimentary (area two) and volcanic (area three) substrates, was strongly negatively affected by drought. Male reproduction declined less with drought at area one and more at areas two and three. Overall mortality was 30% on coarse cinder soils (area one) and averaged 55% on finer soil types (areas two and three). (2) Although moth herbivore susceptible trees were hypothesized to suffer more with drought than moth resistant trees, the opposite occurred. Annual stem growth was negatively affected by drought for moth resistant trees, but much less strongly for moth susceptible trees. (3) In contrast to our hypothesis, moths declined with drought. Overall, chronically water-stressed and herbivore-susceptible trees had smaller declines in performance relative to less-stressed trees during drought years. These long-term findings support the idea that stressed trees might be more resistant to drought since they may have adapted or acclimated to resist drought-related mortality.}, }
@article {pmid30833238, year = {2019}, author = {Lunt, PH and Fyfe, RM and Tappin, AD}, title = {Role of recent climate change on carbon sequestration in peatland systems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {667}, number = {}, pages = {348-358}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.239}, pmid = {30833238}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Carbon Cycle ; *Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; England ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Soil ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {This paper provides information on the impact of recent climate change on carbon sequestration in peatland systems in South West England. This is important because peatlands have the potential to sequester and hold large quantities of anthropogenically released CO2. This paper investigates whether there has been a reduction in the strength of carbon sinks in a valley mire and blanket bog, which occur on the limits of the biogeographical envelop for peatlands in Britain. Past rates of carbon accumulation were calculated from peat depth and the sequential analysis of peat age, bulk density and carbon content from cores taken from valley mire and blanket bog. At the valley mire site contemporary net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was calculated by measuring inputs to the peat body, via net primary productivity (NPP), of Sphagna. Losses of C from the peat body were calculated by measuring CH4, and aquatic carbon, calculated from catchment export of particulate and dissolved organic carbon. The study found similar mean rates of carbon accumulation since 1850 of 11.26 t ± 0.68 t CO2e ha-1 yr-1 (307 g C m-2 yr-1) in valley mire and 11.77 t ± 0.88 t CO2e ha-1 yr-1 (321 g C m-2 yr-1) in blanket bog. The mean present-day CO2 sequestration rate for Sphagna on valley mire was calculated to be 9.13 t ± 0.98 t CO2e ha-1 yr-1 (249 g C m-2 yr-1). Both past and contemporary rates of CO2 sequestration were found to be at the maxima of those reported for temperate peatlands. NPP was found to vary according to microform with higher rates of carbon sequestration found in lawn and hummock microforms compared with pools. Our work suggests that recent changes in the climate appear to have had limited impact on the strength of peatland carbon sinks in South West England.}, }
@article {pmid30829832, year = {2019}, author = {Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Sera, F and Gasparrini, A}, title = {A hands-on tutorial on a modeling framework for projections of climate change impacts on health.}, journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/EDE.0000000000000982}, pmid = {30829832}, issn = {1531-5487}, support = {MR/M022625/1//Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Reliable estimates of future health impacts due to climate change are needed to inform and contribute to the design of efficient adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, projecting health burdens associated to specific environmental stressors is a challenging task, due to the complex risk patterns and inherent uncertainty of future climate scenarios. These assessments involve multi-disciplinary knowledge, requiring expertise in epidemiology, statistics, and climate science, among other subjects. Here, we present a methodologic framework to estimate future health impacts under climate change scenarios based on a defined set of assumptions and advanced statistical techniques developed in time-series analysis in environmental epidemiology. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a step-by-step hands-on tutorial structured in well-defined sections that cover the main methodological steps and essential elements. Each section provides a thorough description of each step, along with a discussion on available analytical options and the rationale on the choices made in the proposed framework. The illustration is complemented with a practical example of study using real-world data and a series of R scripts included as Supplementary Digital Content, which facilitates its replication and extension on other environmental stressors, outcomes, study settings, and projection scenarios. Users should critically assess the potential modeling alternatives and modify the framework and R code to adapt them to their research on health impact projections.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial License 4.0 (CCBY-NC), where it is permissible to download, share, remix, transform, and buildup the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be used commercially without permission from the journal.}, }
@article {pmid30826366, year = {2019}, author = {Poole, JA and Barnes, CS and Demain, JG and Bernstein, JA and Padukudru, MA and Sheehan, WJ and Fogelbach, GG and Wedner, J and Codina, R and Levetin, E and Cohn, JR and Kagen, S and Portnoy, JM and Nel, AE}, title = {Impact of weather and climate change with indoor and outdoor air quality in asthmatic patients.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2019.02.018}, pmid = {30826366}, issn = {1097-6825}, abstract = {Weather and climate change are constant and ever-changing processes that affect allergy and asthma. The purpose of this report is to provide information since the last climate change review with a focus on asthmatic disease. PubMed and Internet searches for topics included climate and weather change, air pollution, particulates, greenhouse gasses, traffic, insect habitat, and mitigation in addition to references contributed by the individual authors. Changes in patterns of outdoor aeroallergens caused by increasing temperatures and amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are major factors linked to increased duration of pollen seasons, increased pollen production, and possibly increased allergenicity of pollen. Indoor air pollution threats anticipated from climate changes include microbial and mold growth secondary to flooding, resulting in displacement of persons and need for respiratory protection of exposed workers. Air pollution from indoor burning of mosquito repellants is a potential anticipatory result of an increase in habitat regions. Air pollution from fossil fuel burning and traffic-related emissions can alter respiratory defense mechanisms and work synergistically with specific allergens to enhance immunogenicity to worsen asthma in susceptible subjects. Community efforts can significantly reduce air pollution, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emission and improving air quality. The allergist's approach to weather pattern changes should be integrated and anticipatory to protect at-risk patients.}, }
@article {pmid30825817, year = {2019}, author = {Moraitis, ML and Valavanis, VD and Karakassis, I}, title = {Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution of benthic indicator species in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {667}, number = {}, pages = {16-24}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.338}, pmid = {30825817}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The potential effects of climate change on the distribution of benthic species commonly used in marine ecological quality assessment were investigated using a spatial modelling approach. In this work, the relevance of the ecological groups that macrofaunal molluscs are assigned according to their sensitivity or tolerance to environmental disturbance was examined under the scope of the RCP 8.5 severe emissions scenario. The effects of climate change were more profound on species that are indicative of a specific suite of climatic conditions regarding temperature and salinity. Significant loss of habitat suitability was observed for the tolerant species Corbula gibba and Abra prismatica whereas the sensitive species Moerella donacina was least affected. In contrast, an overall expansion of the distributional potential was observed for the sensitive species Flexopecten hyalinus as newly suitable habitats are formed. As hypothesised, the current ecological grouping that depicts the sensitivity of a benthic species to an environmental stressor is irrelevant when assessing the effects of climate change. We propose a new standpoint of using benthic species as biotic tools based on their ecological niche requirements.}, }
@article {pmid30825413, year = {2019}, author = {Coates, SJ and McCalmont, TH and Williams, ML}, title = {Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change in the Practice of Dermatology-A Call to Action.}, journal = {JAMA dermatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jamadermatol.2018.5863}, pmid = {30825413}, issn = {2168-6084}, }
@article {pmid30824774, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, C and Wang, Z and Kong, Y and Zhang, F and Yang, K and Zhang, T}, title = {Most of the Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Remains under Climate Change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3295}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-39942-4}, pmid = {30824774}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {91437217//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41661144017//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 91437217//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41471034//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41661144017//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 91437217//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41471034//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41661144017//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 91437217//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41471034//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41661144017//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Degradation of cryospheric components such as arctic sea ice and permafrost may pose a threat to the Earth's climate system. A rise of 2 °C above pre-industrial global surface temperature is considered to be a risk-level threshold. This study investigates the impacts of global temperature rises of 1.5 °C and 2 °C on the extent of the permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), based on the 17 models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that, when global surface temperature rises by 1.5 °C, the average permafrost extent projected under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios would decrease by 23.58% for RCP2.6 (2027-2036), 24.1% for RCP4.5 (2026-2035) and 25.55% for RCP8.5 (2023-2032). However, uncertainty in the results persists because of distinct discrepancies among the models. When the global surface temperature rises by 2 °C, about one-third of the permafrost would disappear; in other words, most of the NH permafrost would still remain even in the RCP8.5 (2037-2046) scenario. The results of the study highlight that the NH permafrost might be able to stably exist owing to its relatively slow degradation. This outlook gives reason for hope for future maintenance and balance of the cryosphere and climate systems.}, }
@article {pmid30823558, year = {2019}, author = {Kais, SM and Islam, MS}, title = {Perception of Climate Change in Shrimp-Farming Communities in Bangladesh: A Critical Assessment.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16040672}, pmid = {30823558}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Local contexts as well as levels of exposure play a substantial role in defining a community's perception of climate and environmental vulnerabilities. In order to assess a community's adaptation strategies, understanding of how different groups in that community comprehend climate change is crucial. Public risk perception is important as it can induce or confine political, economic, and social actions dealing with particular hazards. Climate change adaptation is a well-established policy discourse in Bangladesh that has made its people more or less aware of it. Similarly, shrimp-farming communities in southwestern Bangladesh understand environmental and climate change in their own ways. In order to understand how the shrimp-farming communities in coastal Bangladesh perceive current climate instabilities, we conducted a qualitative study in shrimp-farming villages in coastal Bangladesh where about 80% of commercial shrimp of the country is cultivated. We compared farmers' perceptions of local climate change with existing scientific knowledge and found remarkable similarities. Our assessment shows that at least two factors are critical for this outcome: coastal people's exposure to and experience of frequent climate extremes; and a radical approach to defining climate regimes in Bangladesh by various stakeholders and the media, depicting anthropogenic global warming as a certainty for the country. Thus, a convergence of scientific construct and sociocultural construct construes the level of awareness of the general public about climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30821446, year = {2019}, author = {Ren, J and Wang, X and Gong, P and Wang, C}, title = {Characterization of Tibetan Soil As a Source or Sink of Atmospheric Persistent Organic Pollutants: Seasonal Shift and Impact of Global Warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {53}, number = {7}, pages = {3589-3598}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b00698}, pmid = {30821446}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Background soils are reservoirs of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). After decades of reduced primary emissions, it is now possible that the POPs contained in these reservoirs are being remobilized because of climate warming. However, a comprehensive investigation into the remobilization of POPs from background soil on the largest and highest plateau on Earth, the Tibetan Plateau (TP), is lacking. In this study, a sampling campaign was carried out on the TP at three background sites with different land cover types (forest, meadow and desert). Field measurements of the air-soil exchange of POPs showed that previous prediction using empirical models overestimated the values of the soil-air partitioning coefficient (KSA), especially for chemicals with KOA > 9. The direction of exchange for γ-HCH, HCB, and PCB-28 overlapped with the air-soil equilibrium range, but with a tendency for volatilization. Their emission fluxes were 720, 2935, and 538 pg m-2 day-1, respectively, and were similar in extent to those observed for background Arctic soil in Norway. Nam Co and Ngari are also permafrost regions, and most chemicals at these two sites exhibited volatilization. This is the first result showing that permafrost can also emit POPs. Seasonally, we found that chemicals tended to be re-emitted from soils to the atmosphere in winter and deposited from the air to the soil in summer. This finding is opposite to most previous results, possibly because of the higher air-soil concentration gradient caused by the prevailing transport of POPs in summer. Climate warming exerts a strong influence on air-soil exchange, with an increase of 1 °C in ambient temperature likely leading to an increase of Tibetan atmospheric inventories of POPs by 60-400%.}, }
@article {pmid30821414, year = {2019}, author = {Rosa, WE and Schenk, E and Travers, JL and Nicholas, PK}, title = {Climate change and health consequences: Engaging public health nursing within the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {107-108}, doi = {10.1111/phn.12598}, pmid = {30821414}, issn = {1525-1446}, }
@article {pmid30819951, year = {2019}, author = {Plagányi, É}, title = {Climate change impacts on fisheries.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {363}, number = {6430}, pages = {930-931}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw5824}, pmid = {30819951}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; }, }
@article {pmid30816191, year = {2019}, author = {Brivio, F and Zurmühl, M and Grignolio, S and von Hardenberg, J and Apollonio, M and Ciuti, S}, title = {Forecasting the response to global warming in a heat-sensitive species.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3048}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-39450-5}, pmid = {30816191}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Avoiding hyperthermia entails considerable metabolic costs for endotherms. Such costs increase in warm conditions, when endotherms may trade food intake for cooler areas to avoid heat stress and maximize their energy balance. The need to reduce heat stress may involve the adoption of tactics affecting space use and foraging behaviour, which are important to understand and predict the effects of climate change and inform conservation. We used resource selection models to examine the behavioural response to heat stress in the Alpine ibex (Capra ibex), a cold-adapted endotherm particularly prone to overheating. Ibex avoided heat stress by selecting the space based on the maximum daily temperature rather than moving hourly to 'surf the heat wave', which minimised movement costs but prevented optimal foraging. By integrating these findings with new climate forecasts, we predict that rising temperatures will force mountain ungulates to move upward and overcrowd thermal refugia with reduced carrying capacity. Our approach helps in identifying priority areas for the conservation of mountain species.}, }
@article {pmid30813647, year = {2019}, author = {Mironova, V and Shartova, N and Beljaev, A and Varentsov, M and Grishchenko, M}, title = {Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates оn the Development of Malaria Parasite (Plasmodium vivax) in Moscow Megacity Region.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16050694}, pmid = {30813647}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {17-77-20070//Russian Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {The article presents the results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the changes of the favorability of climatic conditions for the transmission of vivax malaria in the Moscow megacity and its surroundings during the period from 1977 to 2016. Using the historical temperature records at urban and rural weather stations, we calculated the key indicators of climate favorability for malaria transmission, viz. the sum of effective temperatures, the duration of the season of effective infectiveness, and a new integral index of climate favorability. We demonstrated a dramatic increase of all three indicators, which accelerated after 1984, and a high spatial heterogeneity among them. Due to the urban heat island effect, the degree of climatic favorability is especially high in the densely urbanized areas of Moscow megacity compared with the suburban and rural areas. Climatic conditions for vivax malaria in Moscow are better now than before. The season of effective infectiveness continues in the central part of the city for 25 days longer, and the integral index of climate favorability is 85% higher in comparison to mean values over the rural surroundings. The study contains an alert regarding the risk of malaria resurgence in the Moscow region in the case of the sufficient importation of cases from abroad.}, }
@article {pmid30813633, year = {2019}, author = {Nie, T and Zhang, Z and Qi, Z and Chen, P and Sun, Z and Liu, X}, title = {Characterizing Spatiotemporal Dynamics of CH₄ Fluxes from Rice Paddies of Cold Region in Heilongjiang Province under Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16050692}, pmid = {30813633}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {51779046//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2016YFC0400108//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {Paddy fields have become a major global anthropogenic CH₄ emission source, and climate change affects CH₄ emissions from paddy ecosystems by changing crop growth and the soil environment. It has been recognized that Heilongjiang Province has become an important source of CH₄ emission due to its dramatically increased rice planting area, while less attention has been paid to characterize the effects of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of CH₄ fluxes. In this study, we used the calibrated and validated Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model and DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model to simulate historical and future CH₄ fluxes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of four global climate models (GCMs) in Heilongjiang Province. During 1960⁻2015, the average CH₄ fluxes and climatic tendencies were 145.56 kg C/ha and 11.88 kg C/ha/(10a), respectively. Spatially, the CH₄ fluxes showed a decreasing trend from west to east, and the climatic tendencies in the northern and western parts were higher. During 2021⁻2080, the annual average CH₄ fluxes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were predicted to be 213.46 kg C/ha and 252.19 kg C/ha, respectively, and their spatial distributions were similar to the historical distribution. The average climatic tendencies were 13.40 kg C/ha/(10a) and 29.86 kg C/ha/(10a), respectively, which decreased from west to east. The simulation scenario analysis showed that atmospheric CO₂ concentration and temperature affected CH₄ fluxes by changing soil organic carbon (SOC) content and plant biomass. This study indicated that a paddy ecosystem in a cold region is an important part of China's greenhouse gas emission inventory in future scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30811858, year = {2019}, author = {Ylönen, H and Haapakoski, M and Sievert, T and Sundell, J}, title = {Voles and weasels in the boreal Fennoscandian small mammal community: What happens if the least weasel disappears due to climate change?.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12388}, pmid = {30811858}, issn = {1749-4877}, abstract = {Climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats for populations and challenge for individual behavior, interactions, and survival. Predator-prey interactions are modified by climate processes. In the northern latitudes strong seasonality is changing and the main predicted feature is shortening and instability of winter. Vole populations in the boreal Fennoscandia exhibit multiannual cycles. High amplitude peak numbers of voles and dramatic population lows alternate in 3-5 years cycles shortening from North to South. One key factor, or driver, promoting the population crash and causing extreme extended lows, is suggested to be predation by the least weasel. We review the arms race between prey voles and weasels along the multiannual density fluctuation, affected by the climate change, and especially the change in duration and stability of snow cover. Snow provides for ground-dwelling small mammals thermoregulation, shelter for nest sites, and hide from most predators. Predicted increase in instability of winter forms a major challenge for species with coat color change between brown summer camouflage and white winter coat. One of these is the least weasel, Mustela nivalis nivalis. Increased vulnerability of wrong-colored weasels to predation affect vole populations and may have dramatic effects on vole dynamics. It may have cascading effects to other small rodent - predator interactions and even to plant - animal interactions and forest dynamics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30810563, year = {2019}, author = {Andrady, AL and Pandey, KK and Heikkilä, AM}, title = {Interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on material damage.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {804-825}, doi = {10.1039/c8pp90065e}, pmid = {30810563}, issn = {1474-9092}, abstract = {Solar UV radiation adversely affects the properties of organic materials used in construction, such as plastics and wood. The outdoor service lifetimes of these materials are influenced by their rates of degradation under solar UV radiation as well as by other climate factors such as temperature, moisture, and atmospheric pollutants. While recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer is expected, local increases in UV radiation are still likely to occur, especially in the tropics, but also elsewhere because of climate change effects. Such increases, when taken together with an increased ambient temperature due to climate change, can significantly shorten the service lifetimes of organic building materials. Several proven technologies, including the use of UV stabilisers, surface treatments or coatings have been developed over the years to mitigate these adverse effects. While these technologies should be able to compensate for any realistic future UV radiation and climate change scenarios, they will also add significantly to the lifetime cost of material in relevant products. Shorter outdoor lifetime of the plastic components in photovoltaic (PV) modules is a serious concern in the solar energy industry. To ensure module durability over the full service-lifetime (of about ∼20 years) of the light-harvesting PV components, better stabilisation technologies are being investigated. The present trend towards more environmentally sustainable materials in building, and environmental impact of additives such as stabilisers, need to be considered in addition to their engineering performance. This may require the phasing out of some conventional additives used in plastics as well as substituting wood or other materials in place of plastics in buildings. Depending on the relative costs of mitigation, substituting more UV-stable materials for conventional ones in outdoor products may also be a viable option with some categories of products. Neither the global cost of mitigation of the effects of climate change on materials nor the long-term sustainability of the technologies available for the purpose, have been estimated. Plastic waste and litter exposed outdoors to solar UV radiation over extended periods undergo cracking and fragmentation into small pieces (of micro- and nano-scale size). Release of these fragments into the environment, particularly in the aquatic environment, poses a potential threat to marine biota. Already several hundred of species are known to ingest these fragments that can potentially accumulate additives and pollutants from water. This is a potential threat to humans because 25% of fish marketed for human consumption have been reported to contain microplastics in their digestive systems. The focus of this assessment is on recent advances in understanding the mechanisms of UV-radiation-induced degradation in materials and in assessing emerging technologies for their stabilisation against outdoor UV-degradation. A better understanding of the mechanisms of degradation will allow for innovative stabilisation approaches to be developed. Also assessed is information on the sustainability of the available and emerging UV stabilisation technologies.}, }
@article {pmid30810561, year = {2019}, author = {Williamson, CE and Neale, PJ and Hylander, S and Rose, KC and Figueroa, FL and Robinson, SA and Häder, DP and Wängberg, SÅ and Worrest, RC}, title = {The interactive effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change on aquatic ecosystems.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {717-746}, doi = {10.1039/c8pp90062k}, pmid = {30810561}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; Aquaculture ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology/radiation effects ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; Fishes/physiology ; Fresh Water/analysis ; Ice Cover/chemistry ; Oceans and Seas ; *Ozone Depletion ; Photosynthesis ; Stratospheric Ozone/analysis ; *Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; Zooplankton/physiology ; }, abstract = {This assessment summarises the current state of knowledge on the interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on aquatic ecosystems, focusing on how these affect exposures to UV radiation in both inland and oceanic waters. The ways in which stratospheric ozone depletion is directly altering climate in the southern hemisphere and the consequent extensive effects on aquatic ecosystems are also addressed. The primary objective is to synthesise novel findings over the past four years in the context of the existing understanding of ecosystem response to UV radiation and the interactive effects of climate change. If it were not for the Montreal Protocol, stratospheric ozone depletion would have led to high levels of exposure to solar UV radiation with much stronger negative effects on all trophic levels in aquatic ecosystems than currently experienced in both inland and oceanic waters. This &quot;world avoided&quot; scenario that has curtailed ozone depletion, means that climate change and other environmental variables will play the primary role in regulating the exposure of aquatic organisms to solar UV radiation. Reductions in the thickness and duration of snow and ice cover are increasing the levels of exposure of aquatic organisms to UV radiation. Climate change was also expected to increase exposure by causing shallow mixed layers, but new data show deepening in some regions and shoaling in others. In contrast, climate-change related increases in heavy precipitation and melting of glaciers and permafrost are increasing the concentration and colour of UV-absorbing dissolved organic matter (DOM) and particulates. This is leading to the &quot;browning&quot; of many inland and coastal waters, with consequent loss of the valuable ecosystem service in which solar UV radiation disinfects surface waters of parasites and pathogens. Many organisms can reduce damage due to exposure to UV radiation through behavioural avoidance, photoprotection, and photoenzymatic repair, but meta-analyses continue to confirm negative effects of UV radiation across all trophic levels. Modeling studies estimating photoinhibition of primary production in parts of the Pacific Ocean have demonstrated that the UV radiation component of sunlight leads to a 20% decrease in estimates of primary productivity. Exposure to UV radiation can also lead to positive effects on some organisms by damaging less UV-tolerant predators, competitors, and pathogens. UV radiation also contributes to the formation of microplastic pollutants and interacts with artificial sunscreens and other pollutants with adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. Exposure to UV-B radiation can decrease the toxicity of some pollutants such as methyl mercury (due to its role in demethylation) but increase the toxicity of other pollutants such as some pesticides and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Feeding on microplastics by zooplankton can lead to bioaccumulation in fish. Microplastics are found in up to 20% of fish marketed for human consumption, potentially threatening food security. Depletion of stratospheric ozone has altered climate in the southern hemisphere in ways that have increased oceanic productivity and consequently the growth, survival and reproduction of many sea birds and mammals. In contrast, warmer sea surface temperatures related to these climate shifts are also correlated with declines in both kelp beds in Tasmania and corals in Brazil. This assessment demonstrates that knowledge of the interactive effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change factors on aquatic ecosystems has advanced considerably over the past four years and confirms the importance of considering synergies between environmental factors.}, }
@article {pmid30810560, year = {2019}, author = {Bornman, JF and Barnes, PW and Robson, TM and Robinson, SA and Jansen, MAK and Ballaré, CL and Flint, SD}, title = {Linkages between stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate change and their implications for terrestrial ecosystems.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {681-716}, doi = {10.1039/c8pp90061b}, pmid = {30810560}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollutants/analysis ; Fresh Water/analysis ; Global Warming ; Harmful Algal Bloom/radiation effects ; Light ; Models, Chemical ; Natural Resources ; Photolysis/radiation effects ; Seawater/analysis ; Stratospheric Ozone/*analysis ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {Exposure of plants and animals to ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B; 280-315 nm) is modified by stratospheric ozone dynamics and climate change. Even though stabilisation and projected recovery of stratospheric ozone is expected to curtail future increases in UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface, on-going changes in climate are increasingly exposing plants and animals to novel combinations of UV-B radiation and other climate change factors (e.g., ultraviolet-A and visible radiation, water availability, temperature and elevated carbon dioxide). Climate change is also shifting vegetation cover, geographic ranges of species, and seasonal timing of development, which further modifies exposure to UV-B radiation. Since our last assessment, there has been increased understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which plants perceive UV-B radiation, eliciting changes in growth, development and tolerances of abiotic and biotic factors. However, major questions remain on how UV-B radiation is interacting with other climate change factors to modify the production and quality of crops, as well as important ecosystem processes such as plant and animal competition, pest-pathogen interactions, and the decomposition of dead plant matter (litter). In addition, stratospheric ozone depletion is directly contributing to climate change in the southern hemisphere, such that terrestrial ecosystems in this region are being exposed to altered patterns of precipitation, temperature and fire regimes as well as UV-B radiation. These ozone-driven changes in climate have been implicated in both increases and reductions in the growth, survival and reproduction of plants and animals in Antarctica, South America and New Zealand. In this assessment, we summarise advances in our knowledge of these and other linkages and effects, and identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the ecological consequences of these environmental changes on terrestrial ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30810472, year = {2019}, author = {Meza-Palacios, R and Aguilar-Lasserre, AA and Morales-Mendoza, LF and Pérez-Gallardo, JR and Rico-Contreras, JO and Avarado-Lassman, A}, title = {Life cycle assessment of cane sugar production: The environmental contribution to human health, climate change, ecosystem quality and resources in México.}, journal = {Journal of environmental science and health. Part A, Toxic/hazardous substances &amp; environmental engineering}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1080/10934529.2019.1579537}, pmid = {30810472}, issn = {1532-4117}, abstract = {The cane sugar industry in Mexico depends heavily on the supply of energy, fossil fuels and material resources for its proper operation. The overuse of these resources plus the technical and technological deficiency causes severe environmental consequences. This scientific work aims to analyze the environmental damage attributable to cane sugar production following the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. System boundaries include sugarcane growing and harvesting, sugarcane transportation, sugar milling and electricity cogeneration from bagasse. The associated emissions were acquired from the SimaPro-Ecoinvent database, the Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels (RSB) and the Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon Research Station (ART). The life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) was carried out by SimaPro 8.3.0 software and the characterization method used was IMPACT 2002+. The results show that sugarcane growing and harvesting stage provides the most harmful environmental impacts (52%) followed by electricity cogeneration (25.7%), sugarcane transportation (12.1%) and finally, sugar milling (10.2%). Regarding the environmental contributions at the endpoint categories, the highest percentage of impacts is found in the Human health category (53%), followed by Climate change (21%), Ecosystem quality (16%) and Resources (10%). The LCA in cane sugar production can support the decision-making process to deal with this environmental problem.}, }
@article {pmid30809708, year = {2019}, author = {Prokosch, J and Bernitz, Z and Bernitz, H and Erni, B and Altwegg, R}, title = {Are animals shrinking due to climate change? Temperature-mediated selection on body mass in mountain wagtails.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {189}, number = {3}, pages = {841-849}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-019-04368-2}, pmid = {30809708}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {85802//National Research Foundation of South Africa (NRF)/ ; 114696//National Research Foundation of South Africa (NRF)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change appears to affect body size of animals whose optimal size in part depends on temperature. However, attribution of observed body size changes to climate change requires an understanding of the selective pressures acting on body size under different temperatures. We examined the link between temperature and body mass in a population of mountain wagtails (Motacilla clara) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, between 1976 and 1999, where temperature increased by 0.18 [Formula: see text]C. The wagtails became lighter by 0.035 g per year. Partitioning this trend, we found that only a small part of the effect (0.009 g/year) was due to individuals losing weight and a large part (0.027 g/year) was due to lighter individuals replacing heavier ones. Only the latter component was statistically significant. Apparently, the wagtails were reacting to selection for reduced weight. Examining survival, we found that selection was temperature-mediated, i.e., lighter individuals survived better under high temperatures, whereas heavier individuals survived better under low temperatures. Our results thus support the hypothesis that temperature drove the decline in body mass in this wagtail population and provides one of the first demonstrations of the selective forces underlying such trends.}, }
@article {pmid30809384, year = {2019}, author = {Kim, Y and Newman, G}, title = {Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston.}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/su11041048}, pmid = {30809384}, issn = {2071-1050}, support = {P42 ES027704/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Rising sea levels and coastal population growth will increase flood risk of more people and assets if land use changes are not planned adequately. This research examines the efficacy of flood protection systems and land use planning by comparing Amsterdam in the Netherlands (renown for resilience planning methods), with the city of Houston, Texas in the US (seeking ways of increasing resilience due to extreme recent flooding). It assesses flood risk of future urban growth in lieu of sea level rise using the Land Transformation Model, a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) land use prediction tool. Findings show that Houston has currently developed much more urban area within high-risk flood-prone zones compared to Amsterdam. When comparing predicted urban areas under risk, flood-prone future urban areas in Amsterdam are also relatively smaller than Houston. Finally, the increased floodplain when accounting for sea level rise will impact existing and future urban areas in Houston, but do not increase risk significantly in Amsterdam. The results suggest that the protective infrastructure used in the Netherlands has protected its future urban growth from sea level rise more adequately than has Houston.}, }
@article {pmid30809166, year = {2019}, author = {Xiang, P and Zhang, H and Geng, L and Zhou, K and Wu, Y}, title = {Individualist-Collectivist Differences in Climate Change Inaction: The Role of Perceived Intractability.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {187}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00187}, pmid = {30809166}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {The willingness to take action against climate change may be shaped by cultural orientations. The present study investigated individualist-collectivist differences in climate change inaction as well as the mediating role of perceived intractability. In Study 1, a survey of 182 undergraduates showed that greater perceived intractability of climate change was significantly related to a lower frequency of climate-friendly actions in the preceding 6 months. In Study 2, participants who were exposed to information concerning the intractability of climate change (experimental group, n = 98) reported a significantly greater perceived intractability of climate change and lower intention to assume a low-carbon lifestyle than those presented with neutral information (control group, n = 83). Based on Studies 1 and 2, participants with collectivist or individualist orientations were recruited from a pool of Chinese undergraduate students in Study 3. We found that participants with a more individualist orientation (n = 62) are more subject to perceived intractability, and less likely to take climate-friendly action than those with a more collectivist orientation (n = 94), and individualist/collectivist status affects climate change inaction through perceived intractability as mediator. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the promotion of public engagement with climate change by mitigating perceived intractability.}, }
@article {pmid30808990, year = {2019}, author = {Hurteau, MD and Liang, S and Westerling, AL and Wiedinmyer, C}, title = {Vegetation-fire feedback reduces projected area burned under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2838}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-39284-1}, pmid = {30808990}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {1102670//United States Department of Agriculture | National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)/ ; 1102670//United States Department of Agriculture | National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)/ ; 1102670//United States Department of Agriculture | National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)/ ; 1102670//United States Department of Agriculture | National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate influences vegetation directly and through climate-mediated disturbance processes, such as wildfire. Temperature and area burned are positively associated, conditional on availability of vegetation to burn. Fire is a self-limiting process that is influenced by productivity. Yet, many fire projections assume sufficient vegetation to support fire, with substantial implications for carbon (C) dynamics and emissions. We simulated forest dynamics under projected climate and wildfire for the Sierra Nevada, accounting for climate effects on fuel flammability (static) and climate and prior fire effects on fuel availability and flammability (dynamic). We show that compared to climate effects on flammability alone, accounting for the interaction of prior fires and climate on fuel availability and flammability moderates the projected increase in area burned by 14.3%. This reduces predicted increases in area-weighted median cumulative emissions by 38.3 Tg carbon dioxide (CO2) and 0.6 Tg particulate matter (PM1), or 12.9% and 11.5%, respectively. Our results demonstrate that after correcting for potential over-estimates of the effects of climate-driven increases in area burned, California is likely to continue facing significant wildfire and air quality challenges with on-going climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30807685, year = {2019}, author = {Tulloch, VJD and Plagányi, ÉE and Brown, C and Richardson, AJ and Matear, R}, title = {Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14573}, pmid = {30807685}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation/ ; DE160101207//Australian Research Council/ ; //Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, Australian Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled &quot;Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments&quot; (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice-associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.}, }
@article {pmid30805153, year = {2019}, author = {Furness, EN and Robinson, RA}, title = {Long-term declines in winter body mass of tits throughout Britain and Ireland correlate with climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {1202-1210}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4812}, pmid = {30805153}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The optimum body mass of passerine birds typically represents a trade-off between starvation risk, which promotes fat gain, and predation pressure, which promotes fat loss to maintain maneuvrability. Changes in ecological factors that affect either of these variables will therefore change the optimum body masses of populations of passerine birds. This study sought to identify and quantify the effects of changing temperatures and predation pressures on the body masses and wing lengths of populations of passerine birds throughout Britain and Ireland over the last 50 years. We analyzed over 900,000 individual measurements of body mass and wing length of blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus, coal tits Periparus ater, and great tits Parus major collected by licenced bird ringers throughout Britain and Ireland from 1965 to 2017 and correlated these with publicly available temperature data and published, UK-wide data on the abundance of a key predator, the sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus. We found highly significant, long-term, UK-wide decreases in winter body masses of adults and juveniles of all three species. We also found highly significant negative correlations between winter body mass and winter temperature, and between winter body mass and sparrowhawk abundance. Independent of these effects, body mass further correlated negatively with calendar year, suggesting that less well understood dynamic factors, such as supplementary feeding levels, may play a major role in determining population optimum body masses. Wing lengths of these birds also decreased, suggesting a hitherto unobserved large-scale evolutionary adjustment of wing loading to the lower body mass. These findings provide crucial evidence of the ways in which species are adapting to climate change and other anthropogenic factors throughout Britain and Ireland. Such processes are likely to have widespread implications as the equilibria controlling evolutionary optima in species worldwide are upset by rapid, anthropogenic ecological changes.}, }
@article {pmid30805145, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, DB and Wang, XY and Wu, Y and Lin, HL}, title = {Grazing buffers the effect of climate change on the species diversity of seedlings in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {1119-1126}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4799}, pmid = {30805145}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change predominated by warming over the past decades has affected plant biodiversity, distribution, and ecosystem functioning in alpine grasslands. Yet, little is known about the interactive effect of climate change and grazing on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Here, we conducted a vegetation translocation experiment (ten soil-vegetation blocks were translocated from high-altitudinal site 3,245 m to low-altitudinal site 3,045 m) combined with grazing treatment in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that (a) translocation induced effect of climate change from harsh, high-altitudinal site to benign, low-altitudinal site significantly promoted species richness, and density of asexual and sexual seedling, with an increase in the proportion of asexual recruitment to sexual recruitment; (b) grazing decreased the proportion of asexual seedling to sexual recruitment within community, led to a shift in the dominant plant functional groups from graminoids and legumes to forbs; and (c) grazing partly offset the increased species richness of seedling, but not seedling density, induced by climate change. These findings suggest that moderate grazing may buffer the effect of climate change on the plant community composition, and thus, functional role in alpine meadows. Further understanding the influence of climate change on grassland ecosystems needs to consider the non-additive effect of grazing and climate change to sustainability of grassland services.}, }
@article {pmid30804855, year = {2019}, author = {Bergquist, M and Nilsson, A and Schultz, PW}, title = {Experiencing a Severe Weather Event Increases Concern About Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {220}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00220}, pmid = {30804855}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate change is primarily driven by human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and may therefore be mitigated by changes to human behavior (Clayton et al., 2015; IPCC, 2018). Despite efforts to raise awareness and concern about climate change, GHG emissions continue to rise (IPCC, 2018). Climate change seems to be at odds with the immediate, present threats to which humans are adapted to cope (Gifford et al., 2009; Schultz, 2014; van Vugt et al., 2014). In contrast to immediate dangers, climate change is typically abstract, large scale, slow and often unrelated to the welfare of our daily lives (e.g., Ornstein and Ehrlich, 1989; Gifford, 2011). But there are moments when the consequences of climate change are readily apparent, such as extreme weather events. In the current paper, we examine the impact of personal experience with an extreme weather event, and the impact of this experience on beliefs about climate change, and intentions to take actions that can help prepare for and mitigate the consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30804179, year = {2019}, author = {Moore, FC and Obradovich, N and Lehner, F and Baylis, P}, title = {Rapidly declining remarkability of temperature anomalies may obscure public perception of climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {11}, pages = {4905-4910}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1816541116}, pmid = {30804179}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {The changing global climate is producing increasingly unusual weather relative to preindustrial conditions. In an absolute sense, these changing conditions constitute direct evidence of anthropogenic climate change. However, human evaluation of weather as either normal or abnormal will also be influenced by a range of factors including expectations, memory limitations, and cognitive biases. Here we show that experience of weather in recent years-rather than longer historical periods-determines the climatic baseline against which current weather is evaluated, potentially obscuring public recognition of anthropogenic climate change. We employ variation in decadal trends in temperature at weekly and county resolution over the continental United States, combined with discussion of the weather drawn from over 2 billion social media posts. These data indicate that the remarkability of particular temperatures changes rapidly with repeated exposure. Using sentiment analysis tools, we provide evidence for a &quot;boiling frog&quot; effect: The declining noteworthiness of historically extreme temperatures is not accompanied by a decline in the negative sentiment that they induce, indicating that social normalization of extreme conditions rather than adaptation is driving these results. Using climate model projections we show that, despite large increases in absolute temperature, anomalies relative to our empirically estimated shifting baseline are small and not clearly distinguishable from zero throughout the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid30798364, year = {2019}, author = {Takakura, J and Fujimori, S and Takahashi, K and Hijioka, Y and Honda, Y}, title = {Site-specific hourly resolution wet bulb globe temperature reconstruction from gridded daily resolution climate variables for planning climate change adaptation measures.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-019-01692-3}, pmid = {30798364}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14)//Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan/ ; }, abstract = {Changes in the environmental heat stress need to be properly evaluated to manage the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly in the context of climate change. The wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a useful index for evaluating heat stress and anticipating conditions related to heat-related illness in the present climate, but projecting the WBGT with a sufficiently high temporal and spatial resolution remains challenging for future climate conditions. In this study, we developed a methodological framework for estimating the site-specific hourly resolution WBGT based on the output of general circulation models using only simple calculations. The method was applied to six sites in Japan and its performance was evaluated. The proposed method could reproduce the site-specific hourly resolution WBGT with a high accuracy. Based on the developed framework, we constructed future (2090s) projections under two different greenhouse gas emission pathways. These projections showed a consistent rise in the WBGT and thus the capacity to perform physically demanding activities is expected to decrease. To demonstrate the usefulness of the projected WBGT in planning adaptation measures, we identified the optimal working schedules which would minimize outdoor workers' exposure to heat at a specific site. The results show that a substantial shift in the working time is required in the future if outdoor workers are to compensate the effect of increased heat exposure only by changing their working hours. This methodological framework and the projections will provide local practitioners with useful information to manage the increased risk of heat stress under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30797982, year = {2019}, author = {De Marchi, L and Neto, V and Pretti, C and Chiellini, F and Morelli, A and Soares, AMVM and Figueira, E and Freitas, R}, title = {The influence of Climate Change on the fate and behavior of different carbon nanotubes materials and implication to estuarine invertebrates.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Toxicology &amp; pharmacology : CBP}, volume = {219}, number = {}, pages = {103-115}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpc.2019.02.008}, pmid = {30797982}, issn = {1532-0456}, abstract = {The widespread use of Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) has been increasing exponentially, leading to a significant potential release into the environment. Nevertheless, the toxic effects of CNTs in natural aquatic systems are related to their ability to interact with abiotic compounds. Considering that salinity variations are one of the main challenges in the environment and thus may influence the behavior and toxicity of CNTs, a laboratory experiment was performed exposing the tube-building polychaete Diopatra neapolitana (Delle Chiaje 1841) for 28 days to pristine multi-walled carbon nanotube (MWCNTs) and carboxylated MWCNTs, maintained at control salinity 28 and low salinity 21. An innovative approach based on thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was adopted for the first time to assess the presence of MWCNTs aggregates in the organisms. Both CNTs generated toxic impacts in terms of regenerative capacity, energy reserves and metabolic capacity as well as oxidative and neuro status, however greater toxic impacts were observed in polychaetes exposed to carboxylated MWCNTs. Moreover, both CNTs maintained under control salinity (28) generated higher toxic impacts in the polychaetes compared to individuals maintained under low salinity (21), indicating that exposed polychaetes tend to be more sensitive to the alteration induced by salinity variations on the chemical behavior of both MWCNTs in comparison to salt stress.}, }
@article {pmid30796848, year = {2019}, author = {Hales, S}, title = {Climate change, extreme rainfall events, drinking water and enteric disease.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1515/reveh-2019-2001}, pmid = {30796848}, issn = {2191-0308}, }
@article {pmid30796465, year = {2019}, author = {Rahmasary, AN and Robert, S and Chang, IS and Jing, W and Park, J and Bluemling, B and Koop, S and van Leeuwen, K}, title = {Overcoming the Challenges of Water, Waste and Climate Change in Asian Cities.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01137-y}, pmid = {30796465}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {687809//Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; }, abstract = {Unprecedented challenges in urban management of water, waste and climate change-amplified by urbanisation and economic growth-are growing in Asia. In this circumstance, cities need to be aware of threats and opportunities to improve their capacity in addressing these challenges. This paper identifies priorities, barriers and enablers of these capacities. Through the City Blueprint® Approach-an integrated baseline assessment of the urban water cycle-11 Asian cities are assessed. Three cities are selected for an in-depth governance capacity analysis of their challenges with a focus on floods. Solid waste collection and treatment and access to improved drinking water and sanitation can be considered priorities, especially in cities with considerable slum populations. These people are also disproportionately affected by the impacts of climate-related hazards. The high variation of water management performance among Asian cities shows high potential for city-to-city learning by sharing best practices in water technology and governance. Combining interventions, i.e., by exploring co-benefits with other sectors (e.g., transport and energy) will increase efficiency, improve resilience, and lower the cost. Although governance capacities varied among cities, management of available information, monitoring and evaluation showed to be reoccurring points for improvement. Cities are also expected to increase implementation capacities using better policy, stricter compliance and preparedness next to promoting community involvement. Consequently, the city transformation process can be more concrete, efficient and inclusive.}, }
@article {pmid30796067, year = {2019}, author = {Jacobs, JR}, title = {Pluralistic ignorance and social action on climate change.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.15252/embr.201847426}, pmid = {30796067}, issn = {1469-3178}, }
@article {pmid30795849, year = {2019}, author = {Ontoria, Y and Gonzalez-Guedes, E and Sanmartí, N and Bernardeau-Esteller, J and Ruiz, JM and Romero, J and Pérez, M}, title = {Interactive effects of global warming and eutrophication on a fast-growing Mediterranean seagrass.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {145}, number = {}, pages = {27-38}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.02.002}, pmid = {30795849}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Coastal ecosystems, such as seagrasses, are subjected to local (e.g. eutrophication) and global (e.g. warming) stressors. While the separate effects of warming and eutrophication on seagrasses are relatively well known, their joint effects remain largely unstudied. In order to fill this gap, and using Cymodocea nodosa as a model species, we assessed the joint effects of warming (three temperatures, 20 °C, 30 °C and 35 °C) with two potential outcomes of eutrophication: (i) increase in nutrients concentration in the water column (30 and 300 μM), and (ii) organic enrichment in the sediment). Our results confirm that temperature in isolation clearly affects plant performance; while plants exposed to 30 °C performed better than control plants, plants exposed to 35 °C showed clear symptoms of deterioration (e.g. decline of photosynthetic capacity, increase of incidence of necrotic tissue). Plants were unaffected by high ammonium concentrations; however, organic enrichment of sediment had deleterious effects on plant function (photosynthesis, growth, demographic balance). Interestingly, these negative effects were exacerbated by increased temperature. Our findings indicate that in addition to the possibility of the persistence of C. nodosa being directly jeopardized by temperature increase, the joint effects of warming and eutrophication may further curtail its survival. This should be taken into consideration in both predictions of climate change consequences and in local planning.}, }
@article {pmid30792357, year = {2019}, author = {Jaffe, Y and Bar-Oz, G and Ellenblum, R}, title = {Improving integration in societal consequences to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {11}, pages = {4755-4756}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1901538116}, pmid = {30792357}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid30790756, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, X and Dong, Q and Costa, V and Wang, X}, title = {A hierarchical Bayesian model for decomposing the impacts of human activities and climate change on water resources in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {665}, number = {}, pages = {836-847}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.189}, pmid = {30790756}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Human activities and climate change are two key factors influencing the variation of the total amount of available surface and groundwater, hereafter termed water resources. Quantitatively separating their impacts remains a challenge. To this end, we used time-varying Budyko-type equations and a hierarchical Bayesian model in this paper to separate their impacts in 31 provincial-level divisions of China. The time-varying Budyko-type equations treat the Budyko equation parameter w as a variable, which depends on human activities (represented by per capita gross regional production) and climate change (represented by temperature and precipitation). The hierarchical model quantifies the uncertainty of parameters and the interrelation between covariates across regions in China. The results show that the time-varying Budyko-type equation can improve the fitting capability for water resources in China. The hierarchical Bayesian model, which considered spatial dependence, reduced the uncertainty of the parameters compared to spatially independent counterparts. For most regions of China, human activities reduce water resources while climate change increases them. Southeastern China is the most influenced area, and its water resources decreased approximately 50 mm because of human activities. This study can provide a basis for water resource management under climate change and human activity constraints in China.}, }
@article {pmid30788142, year = {2019}, author = {Bontrager, M and Angert, AL}, title = {Gene flow improves fitness at a range edge under climate change.}, journal = {Evolution letters}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {55-68}, doi = {10.1002/evl3.91}, pmid = {30788142}, issn = {2056-3744}, abstract = {Populations at the margins of a species' geographic range are often thought to be poorly adapted to their environment. According to theoretical predictions, gene flow can inhibit these range edge populations if it disrupts adaptation to local conditions. Alternatively, if range edge populations are small or isolated, gene flow can provide beneficial genetic variation and may facilitate adaptation to environmental change. We tested these competing predictions in the annual wildflower Clarkia pulchella using greenhouse crosses to simulate gene flow from sources across the geographic range into two populations at the northern range margin. We planted these between-population hybrids in common gardens at the range edge and evaluated how genetic differentiation and climatic differences between edge populations and gene flow sources affected lifetime fitness. During an anomalously warm study year, gene flow from populations occupying historically warm sites improved fitness at the range edge and plants with one or both parents from warm populations performed best. The effects of the temperature provenance of gene flow sources were most apparent at early life history stages, but precipitation provenance also affected reproduction. We also found benefits of gene flow that were independent of climate: after climate was controlled for, plants with parents from different populations performed better at later lifestages than those with parents from the same population, indicating that gene flow may improve fitness via relieving homozygosity. Further supporting this result, we found that increasing genetic differentiation of parental populations had positive effects on fitness of hybrid seeds. Gene flow from warmer populations, when it occurs, is likely to contribute adaptive genetic variation to populations at the northern range edge as the climate warms. On heterogeneous landscapes, climate of origin may be a better predictor of gene flow effects than geographic proximity.}, }
@article {pmid30786781, year = {2019}, author = {Crews, DE and Kawa, NC and Cohen, JH and Ulmer, GL and Edes, AN}, title = {Climate change, uncertainty and allostatic load.}, journal = {Annals of human biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, doi = {10.1080/03014460.2019.1584243}, pmid = {30786781}, issn = {1464-5033}, abstract = {CONTEXT: Humans constantly respond to environmental stressors challenging their somatic stability. Allostasis, an evolved neuroendocrine/physiological stressor response system, is our main pathway for doing so. Effective allostasis returns somatic systems to their current optima; over a lifetime of stressor responses, related systems fail, effectiveness declines, and physiological dysregulation (i.e. allostatic load) increases. Global Climate Change (GCC) multiplies environmental stressors on human populations and is likely to increase allostatic load.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: As a population-level stressor, GCC increases risks for multiple stressors, including sociocultural instability and food and water insecurity, while also motivating migration. We predict GCC increases risk for elevated allostatic load. Here, we review pathways by which GCC increases climatic and social stressors contributing to greater stress and allostatic load.<br><br>METHODS: Based upon published sources and primary ethnographic case studies, this review examines how GCC, by multiplying climate-related stressors, likely increases social instability, food and water insecurity, and migration. Thereby, it is proposed that GCC contributes to allostatic load.<br><br>RESULTS: GCC multiplies stressors on local populations. Those experiencing social insecurity related to GCC during growth and development are expected to show the largest influences on their lifetime allostatic load. Similarly, as GCC increases food and water insecurity, it likely will increase allostatic load in those affected and is likely to propel migrants to seek improved living circumstances. These stressors may be continued among their descendants via historical trauma or epigenetic responses.<br><br>CONCLUSION: GCC accentuates effects of environmental and sociocultural stressors on human populations. Those exposed to GCC are likely to show lifelong elevated allostatic load.}, }
@article {pmid30783293, year = {2019}, author = {Muller, M}, title = {Hydropower dams can help mitigate the global warming impact of wetlands.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {566}, number = {7744}, pages = {315-317}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00616-w}, pmid = {30783293}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30780055, year = {2019}, author = {Hasan, MK and Kumar, L}, title = {Comparison between meteorological data and farmer perceptions of climate change and vulnerability in relation to adaptation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {237}, number = {}, pages = {54-62}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.02.028}, pmid = {30780055}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {How farmers perceive climate change has an influence on how they adapt to climate change. Climate change perception and vulnerability were assessed based on the household survey information collected from randomly selected 118 farmers of Kalapara subdistrict in Bangladesh. This paper identified the socio-economic covariates of climate change perception and vulnerability in relation to agricultural adaptation. It was also determined whether their perception was consistent with meteorological information. Findings revealed that the farmers had a moderate level of perception of and vulnerability to climate change. An overwhelming majority (98%) of the respondents perceived a warmer summer and 96% of them observed a colder winter compared to the past. Among the farmers, 91% believed that rainfall had increased and 97% thought that the timing of rainfall had changed. The belief of increase in soil salinity and associated loss was prevailing among 98 and 99% of them, respectively. Observed climate data were mostly aligned with the farmers' perception with respect to temperature, rainfall, floods, droughts and salinity. Positive correlations were found among the perception of climate change, the perception of vulnerability and the number of adopted adaptation practices. Farmers' level of understanding of climate change, vulnerability and adaptation practices could be improved by involving them in different organizations, such as climate field school and farmer associations. It could accelerate the dissemination of agricultural adaptation practices among them to cope with adverse agricultural impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30779747, year = {2019}, author = {Ross, LC and Speed, JDM and Øien, DI and Grygoruk, M and Hassel, K and Lyngstad, A and Moen, A}, title = {Can mowing restore boreal rich-fen vegetation in the face of climate change?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {e0211272}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0211272}, pmid = {30779747}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Low-frequency mowing has been proposed to be an effective strategy for the restoration and management of boreal fens after abandonment of traditional haymaking. This study investigates how mowing affects long-term vegetation change in both oceanic and continental boreal rich-fen vegetation. This will allow evaluation of the effectiveness of mowing as a management and restoration tool in this ecosystem in the face of climate change. At two nature reserves in Central Norway (Tågdalen, 63° 03' N, 9° 05 E, oceanic climate and Sølendet, 62° 40' N, 11° 50' E, continental climate), we used permanent plot data from the two sites to compare plant species composition from the late 1960s to the early 1980s with that recorded in 2012-2015 in abandoned and mown fens. Changes in species composition and frequency were analysed by multivariate and univariate methods in relation to environmental variables and modelled climate and groundwater data. Mowing resulted in a decline in shrub and Molinia caerulea cover at the continental and oceanic sites respectively, and the total cover of specialist fen species had increased to a significantly greater extent in the mown plots than the unmown at the continental site. However, mowing did not have an effect on the cover of specialist bryophyte species, and some specialist species declined regardless of mowing treatment. Temperature sums had increased at both sites, but precipitation had not changed significantly. Mowing was shown to be the most important determinant of plant community composition at both sites, with local environmental conditions being of secondary importance. In conclusion, the abandonment of traditional management practices results in the loss of characteristic fen species. In order to encourage the restoration of typical rich-fen vegetation, particularly in oceanic areas, additional management measures, such as more intensive mowing, may be required.}, }
@article {pmid30779307, year = {2019}, author = {Santana Junior, PA and Kumar, L and Da Silva, RS and Pereira, JL and Picanço, MC}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on the worldwide distribution of Dalbulus maidis (DeLong) using MaxEnt.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.5379}, pmid = {30779307}, issn = {1526-4998}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: For the first time, a model was applied at the global scale in order to investigate the effects of climate change on Dalbulus maidis. D. maidis is the main vector of three plant pathogens of maize crops and has been reported as one of the most important maize pests in Latin America. We modeled the effects of climate change on this pest using three Global Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the MaxEnt software.<br><br>RESULTS: Overall, climate change will lead to a decrease in the suitable areas for D. maidis. In South America, climate change will decrease the areas that are suitable for the pest, especially in Brazil. However, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela will have small areas that are highly suitable for the corn leafhopper. Outside of the pest's range, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Africa also should be concerned about the risk of corn leafhopper invasions in the future since they are projected to have highly suitable conditions for this insect in some areas.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study will allow the relevant countries to increase their quarantine measures and guide researchers to develop new Z. mays varieties that are resistant or tolerant to D. maidis. In addition, the maize-stunting pathogens for the areas are highlighted in this modeling. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30778124, year = {2019}, author = {Kosanic, A and Kavcic, I and van Kleunen, M and Harrison, S}, title = {Climate change and climate change velocity analysis across Germany.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2196}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-38720-6}, pmid = {30778124}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Although there are great concerns to what extent current and future climate change impacts biodiversity across different spatial and temporal scales, we still lack a clear information on different climate change metrics across fine spatial scales. Here we present an analysis of climate change and climate change velocity at a local scale (1 × 1 km) across Germany. We focus on seasonal climate variability and velocity and investigate changes in three time periods (1901-2015, 1901-1950 and 1951-2015) using a novel statistical approach. Our results on climate variability showed the highest trends for the 1951-2015 time period. The strongest (positive/negative) and spatially the most dispersed trends were found for Summer maximum temperature and Summer minimum temperatures. For precipitation the strongest positive trends were most pronounced in the summer (1951-2015) and winter (1901-2015). Results for climate change velocity showed that almost 90% of temperature velocities were in the range of 0.5 to 3 km/year, whereas all climate velocities for precipitation were within the range of -3.5 to 4.5 km/year. The key results amplify the need for more local and regional scale studies to better understand species individualistic responses to recent climate change and allow for more accurate future projections and conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid30776634, year = {2019}, author = {Ren, S and Qin, Q and Ren, H}, title = {Contrasting wheat phenological responses to climate change in global scale.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {665}, number = {}, pages = {620-631}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.394}, pmid = {30776634}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; India ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Seasons ; Triticum/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Comprehensive analysis of how wheat phenology responds to environmental factors in global scale is helpful for tackling the possible adverse effects of ongoing climate change on wheat production. In this study, six phenological parameters of global wheat, i.e., the growing season start (SGS), peak (PGS), end (EGS), length (LGS), as well as the vegetative period length (LVP) and reproductive period length (LRP), were retrieved from remote sensing data (1981-2014) by threshold-, logistic-, and shape-based methods. And then, we analyzed the effects of temperature, precipitation, short-wave (SW) radiation, and frost on spatiotemporal patterns of wheat phenology. In addition, haze impacts on wheat phenology were investigated in China and India where haze weather appears frequently in winter-spring seasons. Results showed that the occurrence time of SGS/PGS/EGS is gradually advanced from the pole to the equator and annual mean air temperature can explain >70% of their spatial variations. A dominant advanced SGS/PGS/EGS and a shortened LGS/LVP/LRP were detected in the study region due to the significant increase in temperature and SW radiation, as well as the decrease in frost days. Interannual fluctuations of SGS/PGS/EGS are primarily controlled by air temperature, while precipitation and frost only exerted some obvious impacts in some locations. Higher preseason temperature would induce an earlier wheat phenology and a shorter growing season, while adequate precipitation and frequent frost in preseason could delay the occurrence timing of wheat phenology and lead to a longer growing season. Besides, the decreased temperature resulted from severe haze weather may have partly counteracted the global-warming-induced advancing trend of wheat phenology in China, but further advanced the occurrence timing of wheat phenology through prompting vernalization in India. Overall, though wheat growth is largely constrained by human management, we still highlight the strong impacts of global climate change on wheat phenology.}, }
@article {pmid30774719, year = {2019}, author = {Jorgenson, AK and Fiske, S and Hubacek, K and Li, J and McGovern, T and Rick, T and Schor, JB and Solecki, W and York, R and Zycherman, A}, title = {Social science perspectives on drivers of and responses to global climate change.}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {e554}, doi = {10.1002/wcc.554}, pmid = {30774719}, issn = {1757-7780}, abstract = {This article provides a review of recent anthropological, archeological, geographical, and sociological research on anthropogenic drivers of climate change, with a particular focus on drivers of carbon emissions, mitigation and adaptation. The four disciplines emphasize cultural, economic, geographic, historical, political, and social-structural factors to be important drivers of and responses to climate change. Each of these disciplines has unique perspectives and makes noteworthy contributions to our shared understanding of anthropogenic drivers, but they also complement one another and contribute to integrated, multidisciplinary frameworks. The article begins with discussions of research on temporal dimensions of human drivers of carbon emissions, highlighting interactions between long-term and near-term drivers. Next, descriptions of the disciplines' contributions to the understanding of mitigation and adaptation are provided. It concludes with a summary of key lessons offered by the four disciplines as well as suggestions for future research. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Economics and Climate Change.}, }
@article {pmid30772557, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, S and Zhang, J and Yue, T and Jing, X}, title = {Impacts of climate change on urban rainwater harvesting systems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {665}, number = {}, pages = {262-274}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.135}, pmid = {30772557}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Rainwater harvesting (RWH) is promoted in many cities (e.g., Beijing and Shenzhen) as a climate change adaptation measure to relieve urban water supply and drainage pressures. In this study, the impacts of future climate change on water saving and stormwater capture performances of RWH systems at cities across four climatic zones of China are investigated. A downscaling technique based on the Climate Generator is evaluated and employed to generate future (2020-2050) daily rainfall data. Performance indices of RWH systems (i.e., water saving efficiency, reliability, and stormwater capture efficiency) calculated using both the future and historical (1985-2015) daily rainfall data are compared. Two water demand scenarios (i.e., lawn irrigation and toilet flushing) are included in the investigation. The water saving performance is positively affected by the increases in future rainfall at the four cities, while the stormwater capture performance is negatively affected as a larger tank size is required to achieve a desired stormwater capture efficiency in the future period. The responses of water saving and stormwater capture performances of RWH systems to climate change are varying with not only the system dimensions (i.e., storage capacity and catchment area), but also the water demand scenarios and locations. RWH systems with larger storage capacity for larger water demand scenarios at humid and semi-humid cities is expected to be more resilient to climate change. The various changing patterns of the performance indices highlight the importance of incorporating climate change in the design of RWH systems. Location-specific adaptive adjustments (e.g., adjusting tank sizes, catchment areas or water demand rates) need to be adopted so that RWH systems can sustainably meet water saving and stormwater control requirements under future climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30771627, year = {2018}, author = {Perera, F and Ashrafi, A and Kinney, P and Mills, D}, title = {Towards a fuller assessment of benefits to children's health of reducing air pollution and mitigating climate change due to fossil fuel combustion.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {172}, number = {}, pages = {55-72}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2018.12.016}, pmid = {30771627}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Fossil fuel combustion by-products, including particulate matter (PM2.5), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), are a significant threat to children's health and equality. Various policies to reduce emissions have been implemented to reduce air pollution and mitigate climate change, with sizeable estimated health and economic benefits. However, only a few adverse outcomes in children have been considered, resulting in an undercounting of the benefits to this vulnerable population.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to expand the suite of child health outcomes addressed by programs to assess health and economic benefits, such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), by identifying concentration-response (C-R) functions for six outcomes related to PM2.5, NO2, PAH, and/or PM10: preterm birth (PTB), low birthweight (LBW), autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, IQ reduction, and the development of childhood asthma.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of the literature published between January 1, 2000 and April 30, 2018 to identify relevant peer-reviewed case-control and cohort studies and meta-analyses. In some cases meta-analyses were available that provided reliable C-R functions and we assessed their consistency with subsequent studies. Otherwise, we reviewed all eligible studies published between our search dates.<br><br>RESULTS: For each pollutant and health outcome, we present the characteristics of each selected study. We distinguish between C-R functions for endpoints having a causal or likely relationship (PTB, LBW, autism, asthma development) with the pollutants for incorporation into primary analyses and endpoints having a suggestive causal relationship with the pollutants (IQ reduction, ADHD) for secondary analyses.<br><br>CONCLUSION: We have identified C-R functions for a number of adverse health outcomes in children associated with air pollutants largely from fossil fuel combustion. Their incorporation into expanded assessments of health benefits of clean air and climate mitigation policies will provide an important incentive for preventive action.}, }
@article {pmid30765124, year = {2019}, author = {Mendenhall, E and Singer, M}, title = {The global syndemic of obesity, undernutrition, and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10173}, pages = {741}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30310-1}, pmid = {30765124}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid30763854, year = {2019}, author = {Gao, C and Liu, L and Ma, D and He, K and Xu, YP}, title = {Assessing responses of hydrological processes to climate change over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau based on resampling of future climate scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {737-752}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.013}, pmid = {30763854}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {With global warming, hydrological regimes in the headwater basins of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have significantly changed. Investigating the responses of hydrological processes to climate change in TP has become more and more important to make robust strategies for water resources management. However, using just a few GCMs may constrain the uncertainty in assessment of climate impacts. Therefore, a framework is proposed in this study to generate ensemble climate change scenarios and then investigate changes of hydrological processes under climate change in the upper reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River basin (UYZR) and Lancang River basin (ULR). Firstly, the Latin Hypercube Simulation (LHS) is used to generate an ensemble of future climate change scenarios by resampling change factors of meteorological variables from 18 GCMs under emission scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The inherent dependence structures of change factors, i.e. the correlations of change factors among 12 months for different meteorological variables, are also considered in ensembles. Secondly, the HBV hydrological model coupled with a degree-day snowmelt model is applied to explore the potential change of runoff in the future period 2041-2070. Results show that: 1) the resampling method is effective and can provide a wide ensemble of climate change scenarios. 2) Precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the UYZR and ULR basins are expected to increase under the two scenarios, particularly under RCP8.5. 3) The total runoff also shows a moderately upward trend in two basins, both mainly due to increased precipitation. In the UYZR basin, fast runoff accounts for a larger proportion in total runoff than slow runoff, while in ULR, both almost play the same role in total runoff. Furthermore, snowmelt-induced runoff in both basins would be less and rainfall-induced runoff will probably become more important in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30761418, year = {2019}, author = {Zhou, Y and Jiang, J and Ye, B and Zhang, Y and Yan, J}, title = {Addressing climate change through a market mechanism: a comparative study of the pilot emission trading schemes in China.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10653-019-00258-x}, pmid = {30761418}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {71803074//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71603110//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71771130//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 201506340061//China Scholarship Council/ ; G01296001//Southern University of Science and Technology/ ; 2017B030301012//Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Soil and Groundwater Pollution Control/ ; }, abstract = {The questions of how to mitigate climate change and its impact on human health are currently high on the Chinese agenda for future development. The emission trading scheme (ETS) has become one of China's most important instruments to address climate change through a market mechanism. In the wake of the evolution from regional pilots to a nationwide scheme, it is inevitable to be confronted with tremendous political-economic-institutional challenges. To facilitate a smooth start-up of the upcoming nationwide ETS, this study provides a systematic overview of seven ETS pilots, involving the detailed comparison of ETS design and the in-depth evaluation of market performance, both internal and external performance, based on trading data. Then, the achievements and deficiencies of seven ETS pilots are summarized, several challenges for the current time are discussed, and policy proposals for China's national-level ETS are navigated further coupled with international experience. This study finds that China's ETS pilots, from the short-term perspective, are successful, especially in the reinforcement of China's capacity to develop a market-based scheme in an economy that still cherishes many non-market endowments. However, deficiencies lie in both the internal and external market performance, such as the carbon price lacking a signal function, insufficient incentives for compliance, too low market liquidity, and much too high market fragmentation. Moreover, the retrospective examination of China's ETS pilots suggests that a nationwide ETS should at least be based on an extension of the cap duration from single year to several years, uniform rules on monitoring/reporting/verification and allowance allocation, and the improvement of institutional foundation.}, }
@article {pmid30760830, year = {2019}, author = {Watanabe, TK and Watanabe, T and Yamazaki, A and Pfeiffer, M and Claereboudt, MR}, title = {Oman coral δ18O seawater record suggests that Western Indian Ocean upwelling uncouples from the Indian Ocean Dipole during the global-warming hiatus.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1887}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-38429-y}, pmid = {30760830}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {JP25257207//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; 17H04708//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; }, abstract = {The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an interannual mode of climate variability in the Indian Ocean that has intensified with 20th century global-warming. However, instrumental data shows a global-warming hiatus between the late-1990s and 2015. It is presently not clear how the global-warming hiatus affects modes of climate variability such as the IOD, and their basin-wide ocean-atmosphere teleconnections. Here, we present a 26-year long, biweekly record of Sr/Ca and δ18O from a Porites coral drilled in the Gulf of Oman. Sea surface temperature (SSTanom) is calculated from Sr/Ca ratios, and seawater δ18O (δ18Osw-anom) is estimated by subtracting the temperature component from coral δ18O. Our δ18Osw-anom record reveals a significant regime shift in 1999, towards lower mean δ18Osw values, reflecting intensified upwelling in the western Indian Ocean. Prior to the 1999 regime shift, our SSTanom and δ18Osw-anom show a clear IOD signature, with higher values in the summer of positive-IOD years due to weakened upwelling. The IOD signature in SSTanom and δ18Osw-anom disappears with the overall intensification of upwelling after the 1999 regime shift. The inferred increase in upwelling is likely driven by an intensified Walker circulation during the global-warming hiatus. Upwelling in the Western Indian Ocean uncouples from the IOD.}, }
@article {pmid30760801, year = {2019}, author = {Nakabayashi, A and Yamakita, T and Nakamura, T and Aizawa, H and Kitano, YF and Iguchi, A and Yamano, H and Nagai, S and Agostini, S and Teshima, KM and Yasuda, N}, title = {The potential role of temperate Japanese regions as refugia for the coral Acropora hyacinthus in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1892}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-38333-5}, pmid = {30760801}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {17H04996//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; }, abstract = {As corals in tropical regions are threatened by increasing water temperatures, poleward range expansion of reef-building corals has been observed, and temperate regions are expected to serve as refugia in the face of climate change. To elucidate the important indicators of the sustainability of coral populations, we examined the genetic diversity and connectivity of the common reef-building coral Acropora hyacinthus along the Kuroshio Current, including recently expanded (<50 years) populations. Among the three cryptic lineages found, only one was distributed in temperate regions, which could indicate the presence of Kuroshio-associated larval dispersal barriers between temperate and subtropical regions, as shown by oceanographic simulations as well as differences in environmental factors. The level of genetic diversity gradually decreased towards the edge of the species distribution. This study provides an example of the reduced genetic diversity in recently expanded marginal populations, thus indicating the possible vulnerability of these populations to environmental changes. This finding underpins the importance of assessing the genetic diversity of newly colonized populations associated with climate change for conservation purposes. In addition, this study highlights the importance of pre-existing temperate regions as coral refugia, which has been rather underappreciated in local coastal management.}, }
@article {pmid30759571, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, T and Bao, A and Jiapaer, G and Guo, H and Zheng, G and Jiang, L and Chang, C and Tuerhanjiang, L}, title = {Disentangling the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on arid and semiarid grasslands in Central Asia during 1982-2015.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {653}, number = {}, pages = {1311-1325}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.058}, pmid = {30759571}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Asia ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Grassland ; Linear Models ; Rain ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, climate change and human activities have severely affected grasslands in Central Asia. Grassland regulation and sustainability in this region require an accurate assessment of the effects of these two factors on grasslands. Based on the abrupt change analysis, linear regression analysis and net primary productivity (NPP), the spatiotemporal patterns of grassland ecosystems in Central Asia during 1982-2015 were studied. Further, the potential NPP (NPPP) was estimated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model and the human-induced NPP (NPPH), which was the difference between NPPP and actual NPP, were used to differentiate the effects of climate change and human activities on the grassland ecosystems, respectively. The grassland NPP showed a slight upward trend during 1982-2015, while two obvious decreasing periods were found before and after the mutation year 1999. Additionally, the main driving forces of the grassland NPP variation for the two periods were different. During 1982-1999, climate change was the main factor controlling grassland NPP increase or decrease, and 84.7% of grasslands experienced NPP reduction, while the regions experiencing an increase represented only 15.3% of the total area. During 1999-2015, the areas of increasing and decreasing grassland NPP represented 41.6% and 58.4% of the total area, respectively. After 1999, human activities became the main driving force of the NPP reduction, whereas climate change facilitated grassland restoration. The five Central Asian countries showed widely divergent relative impacts of climate change and human activities on NPP changes. In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, anthropogenic decreases in grassland NPP intensified during 1982-2015, while the negative anthropogenic effects on grassland NPP in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan moderated. Further analysis identified precipitation as the major climatic factor affecting grassland variation in most areas of Central Asia and overgrazing as the main form of human activity accelerating grassland degradation. This study improves the understanding of the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on grasslands in Central Asia.}, }
@article {pmid30759551, year = {2019}, author = {Flores, JM and Gil-Lebrero, S and Gámiz, V and Rodríguez, MI and Ortiz, MA and Quiles, FJ}, title = {Effect of the climate change on honey bee colonies in a temperate Mediterranean zone assessed through remote hive weight monitoring system in conjunction with exhaustive colonies assessment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {653}, number = {}, pages = {1111-1119}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.004}, pmid = {30759551}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees/*physiology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Colony Collapse ; Mediterranean Region ; *Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Honey bee plays the leading role in the pollination of many wild plants and crops, but it currently faces serious threats. Climate change is pointed out as one of the causes of the colony collapse disorder. Understanding the response of bees to the new climate change scenario is essential to face this challenge. Especially in the most sensitive bioclimatic zones, such as the Mediterranean areas. In this work, we remotely monitored the weight of the hives with an electronic device during a flowering period in the beekeeping seasons of 2016 and 2017, marked by extreme episodes of drought and high temperatures. We assessed bee colonies at the beginning, middle and at the end of the flowering as well, considering the adult bee population, bee brood, and pollen and honey reserves. The results showed that the flowering was reduced in three weeks in 2017 in comparison to 2016. In those years weight gain was 7.67 kg and 18.92 kg, respectively. The adverse conditions affected the evolution of the populations of bees and the reserves of honey and pollen in a meaningful way, increasing food stress for bees. It also affected the pollen spectrum and commercial characteristics of honey. Our results provide objective data about the effect of climate change on bees, but it also proved the relevant role of bees in the study of changes in the environment.}, }
@article {pmid30754664, year = {2019}, author = {Ho, HC and Abbas, S and Yang, J and Zhu, R and Wong, MS}, title = {Spatiotemporal Prediction of Increasing Winter Perceived Temperature across a Sub-Tropical City for Sustainable Planning and Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16030497}, pmid = {30754664}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate variability has been documented as being key to influencing human wellbeing across cities as it is linked to mortality and illness due to changes in the perceived weather cycle. Many studies have investigated the impact of summer temperature on human health and have proposed mitigation strategies for summer heat waves. However, sub-tropical cities are still experiencing winter temperature variations. Increasing winter perceived temperature through the decades may soon affect city wellbeing, due to a larger temperature change between normal winter days and extreme cold events, which may cause higher health risk due to lack of adaptation and self-preparedness. Therefore, winter perceived temperature should also be considered and integrated in urban sustainable planning. This study has integrated the increasing winter perceived temperature as a factor for developing spatiotemporal protocols for mitigating the adverse impact of climate change. Land surface temperature (LST) derived from satellite images and building data extracted from aerial photographs were used to simulate the adjusted wind chill equivalent temperature (AWCET) particularly for sub-tropical scenarios between 1990 and 2010 of the Kowloon Peninsula, Hong Kong. Compared with perceived temperature based on the representative station located at the headquarters of the Hong Kong Observatory, the temperature of half the study area in the Kowloon Peninsula has raised by 1.5 °C. The areas with less green space and less public open space in 2010 show higher relative temperatures. Socioeconomically deprived areas (e.g., areas with lower median monthly income) may suffer more from this scenario, but not all types of socioeconomic disparities are associated with poor sustainable planning. Based on our results and the &quot;no-one left behind&quot; guideline from the United Nations, climate change mitigation should be conducted by targeting socioeconomic neighborhoods more than just aging communities.}, }
@article {pmid30745128, year = {2019}, author = {Li, G and Sun, S and Han, J and Yan, J and Liu, W and Wei, Y and Lu, N and Sun, Y}, title = {Corrigendum to &quot;Impacts of Chinese Grain for Green program and climate change on vegetation in the Loess Plateau during 1982-2015&quot; [Sci. Total Environ. 660 (2019) 177-187].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {665}, number = {}, pages = {1190-1191}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.396}, pmid = {30745128}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid30743953, year = {2019}, author = {Ker Rault, PA and Koundouri, P and Akinsete, E and Ludwig, R and Huber-Garcia, V and Tsani, S and Acuna, V and Kalogianni, E and Luttik, J and Kok, K and Skoulikidis, N and Froebrich, J}, title = {Down scaling of climate change scenarii to river basin level: A transdisciplinary methodology applied to Evrotas river basin, Greece.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {1623-1632}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.369}, pmid = {30743953}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Mediterranean region is anticipated to be (or, already is) one of the hot spots for climate change, where freshwater ecosystems are under threat from the effects of multiple stressors. Climate change is impacting natural resources and on the functioning of Ecosystem Services. The challenges about modelling climate change impact on water cycle in general and specifically on socio-economic dynamics of the society leads to an exponential amount of results that restrain interpretation and added value of forecasting at local level. One of the main challenges when dealing with climate change projections is the quantification of uncertainties. Modellers might have limited information or understanding from local river catchment management practices and from other disciplines with relevant insights on socio-economic and environmental complex relationship between biosphere and human based activities. Current General Circulation Models cannot fulfil the requirements of high spatial detail required for water management policy. This article reports an innovative transdisciplinary methodology to down scale Climate Change scenarii to river basin level with a special focus on the development of climate change narrative under SSP5-RCP8.5 combination called Myopic scenario and SSP1-RCP4.5 combination called Sustainable scenario. Local Stakeholder participative workshop in the Evrotas river basin provide perception of expected changes on water demand under to two developed scenario narratives.}, }
@article {pmid30743919, year = {2019}, author = {Grillakis, MG}, title = {Increase in severe and extreme soil moisture droughts for Europe under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {1245-1255}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.001}, pmid = {30743919}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Droughts are among the costliest natural disasters. They affect wide regions and large numbers of people worldwide by tampering with water availability and agricultural production. In this research, soil moisture drought trends are assessed for Europe using the Soil Moisture Index (SMI) estimated on Joint UK Land Environment Simulator simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathways, the RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios. Results show that SMI drought conditions are expected to exacerbate in Europe with substantial differences among regions. Eastern Europe and Mediterranean regions are found to be the most affected. Spatially and temporally contiguous regions that exhibit SMI of Severe and Extreme index categories are identified as distinct drought events and are assessed for their characteristics. It is shown that even under strong emissions mitigation, these events are expected to increase in occurrence (22% to 123%), while their characteristics will become more unfavorable. Results indicate increase in their spatial extend (between 23% and 46%) and their duration (between 16% and 48%) depending on the period and the scenario. Additional analysis was performed for the exceptionally wide-area (over 106 km2) severe and extreme soil moisture drought events that are expected to drastically increase comparing to the recent past. Projections show that those events are expected to happen between 11 and 28 times more frequently depending on the scenario and the period with a 59% to 246% larger duration. These findings indicate that even applying strong mitigation measures, agricultural drought risk in Europe is expected to become higher than our present experience.}, }
@article {pmid30743841, year = {2018}, author = {Shao, P and He, H and Zhang, X and Xie, H and Bao, X and Liang, C}, title = {Responses of microbial residues to simulated climate change in a semiarid grassland.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {1286-1291}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.055}, pmid = {30743841}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Bacteria ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Fungi ; *Grassland ; Soil ; *Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Microbial residues play important role in regulating soil carbon (C) turnover and stability, but the responses of microbial residues to climate change are neglected. In this study, a 5-year field experiment that simulated two climate change factors (precipitation and warming) was performed to examine microbial residue changes in a semiarid grassland, with water limitation. Both the contents of total amino sugars (a biomarker of microbial residues) and glucosamine (a biomarker of fungal residues) increased significantly with increased precipitation and decreased under warming, whereas neither increased precipitation nor warming influenced the content of muramic acid (a biomarker of bacterial residues). These findings clarified the role of fungal residues in determining the response of microbial residues to altered water availability and plant productivity induced by increased precipitation and elevated temperature. Interestingly, microbial residues had a much greater response to climate change than total soil C, implying that soil C composition and stability altered prior to soil C storage and simultaneously slowed down the change of soil C pool. Integrating microbial residues into current climate-C models is expected to enable the models to more accurately evaluate soil C responses to climate regimes in semiarid grasslands.}, }
@article {pmid30743113, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, B and Gao, X and Ma, J and Jiao, Z and Xiao, J and Hayat, MA and Wang, H}, title = {Modeling the present and future distribution of arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus under climate change scenarios in Mainland China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {203-214}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.301}, pmid = {30743113}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Aedes/*virology ; Animals ; *Arboviruses ; China ; *Climate Change ; Dengue ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Models, Statistical ; *Mosquito Vectors ; }, abstract = {Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are two important mosquito species which transmit various infectious arbovirus diseases represented mainly by dengue fever. These two species of mosquito have a wide range of distribution and strong transfer capacity. With ongoing global climate change, we are facing an increasing public health threat from the rapid spread of vectors in wider geographical areas. Based on observed occurrence records of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and high-resolution environmental layers reflecting climate and land-use conditions, a Maxent niche modeling approach was adopted to model the current and future distribution of both species in Mainland China. Our models provide predictions of suitable habitat shifts under future climate scenarios up to the 2050s. Both species were predicted to expand their niche range to varying degrees under future climate scenarios. Aedes aegypti was modeled to expand its habitat from Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan and Hainan to Fujian, Jiangxi and Guizhou. Aedes albopictus was modeled to increase magnitude of distribution within its present range of northern, southwestern and southeastern coastal areas of Mainland China. Area and population exposed to mosquitoes are predicted to increase significantly. Environmental variables that have significant impact on the distribution of mosquitoes are also revealed by our model. The results of our study can be referenced in further ecological studies and will guide the development of strategies for the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases.}, }
@article {pmid30743110, year = {2019}, author = {Tal, A}, title = {Letter to the editor regarding Wine et al. (2019): Lake Kinneret and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {175-176}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.371}, pmid = {30743110}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid30742734, year = {2019}, author = {Vasconcellos, MM and Colli, GR and Weber, JN and Ortiz, EM and Rodrigues, MT and Cannatella, DC}, title = {Isolation by instability: Historical climate change shapes population structure and genomic divergence of treefrogs in the Neotropical Cerrado savanna.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/mec.15045}, pmid = {30742734}, issn = {1365-294X}, abstract = {Although the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on the diversification of the tropical biota was once dismissed, increasing evidence suggests that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations greatly affected the distribution and population divergence of tropical organisms. Landscape genomic analyses coupled with paleoclimatic distribution models provide a powerful way to understand the consequences of past climate changes on the present-day tropical biota. Using genome-wide SNP data and mitochondrial DNA, combined with projections of the species distribution across the late Quaternary until the present, we evaluate the effect of paleoclimatic shifts on the genetic structure and population differentiation of Hypsiboas lundii, a treefrog endemic to the South American Cerrado savanna. Our results show a recent and strong genetic divergence in H. lundii across the Cerrado landscape, yielding four genetic clusters that do not seem congruent with any current physical barrier to gene flow. Isolation by distance (IBD) explains some of the population differentiation, but we also find strong support for past climate changes promoting range shifts and structuring populations even in the presence of IBD. Post-Pleistocene population persistence in four main areas of historical stable climate in the Cerrado seems to have played a major role establishing the present genetic structure of this treefrog. This pattern is consistent with a model of reduced gene-flow in areas with high climatic instability promoting isolation of populations, defined here as &quot;isolation by instability&quot;, highlighting the effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations structuring populations in tropical savannas. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30742109, year = {2019}, author = {Brun, P and Stamieszkin, K and Visser, AW and Licandro, P and Payne, MR and Kiørboe, T}, title = {Climate change has altered zooplankton-fuelled carbon export in the North Atlantic.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {416-423}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0780-3}, pmid = {30742109}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {Marine plankton have been conspicuously affected by recent climate change, responding with profound spatial relocations and shifts in the timing of their seasonal occurrence. These changes directly affect the global carbon cycle by altering the transport of organic material from the surface ocean to depth, with consequences that remain poorly understood. We investigated how distributional and abundance changes of copepods, the dominant group of zooplankton, have affected biogenic carbon cycling. We used trait-based, mechanistic models to estimate the magnitude of carbon transported downward through sinking faecal pellets, daily vertical migration and seasonal hibernation at depth. From such estimates for over 200,000 community observations in the northern North Atlantic we found carbon flux increased along the northwestern boundary of the study area and decreased in the open northern North Atlantic during the past 55 years. These changes in export were primarily associated with changes in copepod biomass, driven by shifting distributions of abundant, large-bodied species. Our findings highlight how recent climate change has affected downward carbon transport by altering copepod community structure and demonstrate how carbon fluxes through plankton communities can be mechanistically implemented in next-generation biogeochemical models with size-structured representations of zooplankton communities.}, }
@article {pmid30740614, year = {2019}, author = {Rabaiotti, D and Woodroffe, R}, title = {Coping with climate change: limited behavioral responses to hot weather in a tropical carnivore.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {189}, number = {3}, pages = {587-599}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-018-04329-1}, pmid = {30740614}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {NE/L002485/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is widely accepted to be one of the greatest threats to species globally. Identifying the species most at risk is, therefore, a conservation priority. Some species have the capacity to adapt to rising temperatures through changing their phenology, behavior, distribution, or physiology, and, therefore, may be more likely to persist under rising temperatures. Recent findings suggest that the African wild dog Lycaon pictus may be impacted by climate change, since reproductive success is consistently lower when pup-rearing coincides with periods of high ambient temperature. We used GPS collars, combined with generalized linear mixed-effects models, to assess wild dogs' potential to adapt to high ambient temperatures through flexible timing of hunting behavior. On days with higher maximum temperatures, wild dogs showed lower daytime activity and greater nocturnal activity, although nocturnal activity did not fully balance the decrease in daytime activity, particularly during the denning period. Increases in nocturnal activity were confined mainly to moonlit nights, and were seldom observed when packs were raising pups. Our findings suggest that nocturnal activity helps this cursorial hunter to cope with high daytime temperatures. However, wild dogs appear not to use this coping strategy when they are raising pups, suggesting that their resource needs may not be fulfilled during the pup-rearing period. Given that moonlight availability-which will not change as the climate changes-constrains wild dogs' nocturnal activity, the species may have insufficient behavioral plasticity to mitigate increasing diurnal temperatures. These findings raise concerns about climate change impacts on this endangered species, and highlight the need for behavior to be considered when assessing species' vulnerability to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30739851, year = {2019}, author = {Ma, X and Zhao, C and Yan, W and Zhao, X}, title = {Influences of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios on water use efficiency dynamics in the sandy areas of northern China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {161-174}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.402}, pmid = {30739851}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important variable used in hydrometeorology study to reveal the links between carbon-water cycles in sandy ecosystems which are highly sensitive to climate change and can readily reflect the effects of it. In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify the regional impacts of 0.5 °C of additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Using the modified Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and Advection-Aridity (AA) models with global warming values of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above preindustrial levels from Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) datasets, we conducted a new set of climate simulations to assess the effects of climate on WUE (the ratio of net primary productivity (NPP) to actual evapotranspiration (ETa)) in different sandy land types (mobile sandy land, MSL; semimobile/semifixed sandy land, SMSF; and fixed sandy land, FSL) during the period of baseline (1986-2005) and future (2006-2100). The spatiotemporal patterns of ETa, NPP, and WUE mostly showed increasing trends; the value of WUE decreased (6.40%) only in MSL with an additional 0.5 °C of warming. Meteorological and vegetation factors determined the variations in WUE. With warming, only the correlation between precipitation and WUE decreased in the three sandy land types, and the leaf area index (LAI) increased with an additional 0.5 °C of warming. The desertification degree comprehensively reflects the linkages among the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), LAI and WUE. Simulation results indicated the sandy area extent could potential increase by 20 × 104 km2 per decade on average during 2016-2047 and that the increase could be gradual (2.60 × 104 km2 per decade) after 2050 (2050-2100). These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global mean temperature change to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and can help identify the risk of desertification with an additional 0.5 °C of warming.}, }
@article {pmid30739158, year = {2019}, author = {Berman, A}, title = {An overview of heat stress relief with global warming in perspective.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {63}, number = {4}, pages = {493-498}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-019-01680-7}, pmid = {30739158}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {not required//none/ ; }, abstract = {Global warming seems more probable, whether as gradual warming or increased frequency of warmer episodes. The productivity of cattle in temperate countries will decline unless counteracting steps are adopted. The probability of pre-emptive breeding for maintaining temperate breed performance coupled with heat stress tolerance is too low to be adopted for counteracting warming. The expected warming will mostly involve temperature increases. These will indirectly affect radiant heat gain in animals owing to reduced radiant heat dissipation from the body by convective heat loss, which results in an increased sensitivity to incoming radiant heat at higher air temperatures. These necessitate an emphasis on increasing convective heat loss by structure design and forced air flow by fans. Convective heat loss diminishes with increasing air temperatures. Evaporative heat loss remains the alternative. Evaporative cooling of the ambient requires partial enclosing of the space surrounding the animals and is limited by the humidity in ambient air. An alternative was developed of coupling forced ventilation with wetting of animal surface. The exchange of ambient air flowing on animal surface makes the evaporation practically independent of air humidity and the loss of heat from animal surface practically independent of the surface to air temperature gradient. The coupling of forced ventilation with wetting combination may be attained in various parts of the dairy farm, the holding area of the milking parlour, the feeding trip and the resting area. Each of these requires differing structural and technological adaptations. Climate and farming systems vary between locations which require specific solutions.}, }
@article {pmid30739151, year = {2019}, author = {Balasubramanyam, V and Wilhelm Stanis, S and Morgan, M and Ojewola, O}, title = {Climate Change Communication in the Midwestern United States: Perceptions of State Park Interpreters.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01142-1}, pmid = {30739151}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {IIA-1355406//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Parks and protected areas can be ideal settings for climate change communication since many visitors have an affinity for natural and cultural settings, and an interest in resource protection. However, climate-based education efforts in the Midwestern United States may need a slightly different approach since this region lacks obvious indicators, such as sea level rise and melting glaciers. Interpretation, an informal communication process designed to transmit scientific information to visitors in leisure-based settings, could be a useful strategy for engaging visitors in climate change discussions. Few studies have assessed perceptions of interpreters on this topic, much less, their willingness to communicate such information. To address this issue, a mixed methods approach (surveys, interviews, photovoice) was used to examine interpreters' perceptions of climate change and its impacts in Missouri State Park and Historic Sites. Although nearly 70% of interpreters were either alarmed or concerned about climate change, many of them were unsure about its causation. Interpreters report observing impacts such as flooding, earlier plant blooming, high temperatures, extreme weather, and invasive species, but were uncertain about attributing these impacts to climate change. Interpreters did not believe that visitors would be responsive to climate-based education per se but thought the topic could be addressed in pre-existing programs and activities. Rather than discussing complex science with visitors, interpreters felt more comfortable with conveying the significance of resources at their sites. Implications from this study include acknowledging multiple viewpoints, framing strategic messages, and developing place-based educational materials.}, }
@article {pmid30738263, year = {2019}, author = {Mukul, SA and Alamgir, M and Sohel, MSI and Pert, PL and Herbohn, J and Turton, SM and Khan, MSI and Munim, SA and Reza, AHMA and Laurance, WF}, title = {Combined effects of climate change and sea-level rise project dramatic habitat loss of the globally endangered Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {663}, number = {}, pages = {830-840}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.383}, pmid = {30738263}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Oceans and Seas ; Tigers/*physiology ; Water Movements ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The Sundarbans, in southern coastal Bangladesh, is the world's largest surviving mangrove habitat and the last stronghold of tiger adapted to living in a mangrove ecosystem. Using MaxEnt (maximum entropy modeling), current distribution data, land-use/land cover and bioclimatic variables, we modeled the likely future distribution of the globally endangered Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We used two climatic scenarios (i.e., RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide projections of suitable habitats of Bengal tigers in 2050 and 2070. We also combined projected sea-level rise for the area in our models of future species distributions. Our results suggest that there will be a dramatic decline in suitable Bengal tiger habitats in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Other than various aspects of local climate, sea-level rise is projected to have a substantial negative impact on Bengal tiger habitats in this low-lying area. Our model predicts that due to the combined effect of climate change and sea-level rise, there will be no suitable Bengal tiger habitat remaining in the Sundarbans by 2070. Enhancing terrestrial protected area coverage, regular monitoring, law enforcement, awareness-building among local residents among the key strategies needed to ensure long-term survival and conservation of the Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.}, }
@article {pmid30737721, year = {2019}, author = {Gitea, MA and Gitea, D and Tit, DM and Purza, L and Samuel, AD and Bungău, S and Badea, GE and Aleya, L}, title = {Orchard management under the effects of climate change: implications for apple, plum, and almond growing.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-04214-1}, pmid = {30737721}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The authors analyzed certain species and varieties of fruit tree in which applied crop technology is used and also undergoes the effects of climate change. The aim is to extend productive crop varieties, resistant to disease and pests, in order to obtain superior yields. The research was conducted in orchards located in northwestern Romania (on 8.59 ha), intensively cultivated with apple, plum, and almond species. The blooming period of the species and fruit production was studied in 2009, the first year of the farm's commercial production, and then compared to figures from 2016 to see the changes that occurred. Climatic conditions were studied throughout the period of existence of the farm (2002-2016). To determine the influence of the climatic factor on the blooming and production periods, respectively, every year is considered having pre-blooming, blooming, and ripening periods. It was found that climate change influences the annual biological cycle of the trees: the vegetative rest period of the trees shortens, the tree vegetation begins earlier in the spring, and the blooming period is advanced by as much as 10 days compared to normal cultivated varieties. All these factors have direct repercussions on the quantity of production.}, }
@article {pmid30736916, year = {2019}, author = {Fond, G and Masson, M and Lançon, C and Auquier, P and Boyer, L}, title = {[Psychiatry and global warming].}, journal = {L'Encephale}, volume = {45}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.encep.2019.01.001}, pmid = {30736916}, issn = {0013-7006}, }
@article {pmid30731410, year = {2019}, author = {Liao, X and Xu, W and Zhang, J and Li, Y and Tian, Y}, title = {Global exposure to rainstorms and the contribution rates of climate change and population change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {663}, number = {}, pages = {644-653}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.290}, pmid = {30731410}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Africa ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; *Floods ; Humans ; Rain ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Quantifying global population exposure to rainstorms is a key component of population risk assessments for rainstorms and induced floods. Based on daily precipitation data from the NEX-GDDP dataset, rainfall from rainstorms is first calculated by a multi-model ensemble method for four periods from 1986 to 2100. Combined with population data from the SSP2 scenario, the global population exposure to rainstorms is then calculated and analyzed. Finally, the contribution rates of climate change effect, population change effect, and joint change effect on exposure change are quantitatively assessed. The results showed that (1) Population exposure to rainstorms shows a linear upward trend from base period to the late 21st century period in most regions, and the mid-21st century period compared with base period has the fastest rate of increase. (2) The spatial patterns of population exposure to rainstorms are very similar for the four periods and the areas with high exposure are mainly distributed in Asia, population exposure of Africa is gradually increasing. The countries with high exposure show little volatility, especially the top eight countries. (3) The change in total exposure is mainly due to population change. Based on the composition of the total exposure change for each country, the number of countries whose climate change effect is greater than that of population change is gradually increasing, and this number reaches more than a quarter of the total when the late 21st century period is compared with the mid-21st century period.}, }
@article {pmid30729375, year = {2019}, author = {Shahvari, N and Khalilian, S and Mosavi, SH and Mortazavi, SA}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on water resources and crop yield: a case study of Varamin plain basin, Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {3}, pages = {134}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-019-7266-x}, pmid = {30729375}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation/*methods ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Iran ; Models, Theoretical ; Rivers/chemistry ; Seasons ; Soil/chemistry ; Temperature ; Water Resources/*supply &amp; distribution ; }, abstract = {This research evaluated climate change impacts on water resources using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) models under representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 6, RCP 8.5). First, drought intensity was calculated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the period 1987-2016. Then, the coefficients of precipitation as well as minimum and maximum temperature changes were simulated as SWAT model inputs. The results revealed that temperature will rise in future periods and the precipitation rate will be changed consequently. Then, changes in runoff during periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 were simulated by introducing downscaled results to SWAT model. The model was calibrated and validated by SWAT calibration and uncertainty procedures (SWAT-CUP). Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients (0.57 and 0.54) and R2 determination coefficients (0.65 and 0.63) were obtained for calibration and validation periods, respectively. The results showed that runoff will rise in fall and spring while it will drop in winter and summer throughout future periods under all three scenarios. Such seasonal shifts in runoff levels result from climate change consequences in the forms of temperature rise, snowmelt, altered precipitation pattern, etc. Future-period evapotranspiration will rise under all three scenarios with a maximum increase in the period 2070-2100 under RCP 8.5 scenario. Additionally, rainfed crop yields will decline without considerable changes in irrigated and horticultural crop yields.}, }
@article {pmid30728622, year = {2019}, author = {Campbell-Lendrum, D and Prüss-Ustün, A}, title = {Climate change, air pollution and noncommunicable diseases.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {97}, number = {2}, pages = {160-161}, doi = {10.2471/BLT.18.224295}, pmid = {30728622}, issn = {1564-0604}, }
@article {pmid30728514, year = {2019}, author = {Nowogrodzki, A}, title = {How climate change might affect tea.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {566}, number = {7742}, pages = {S10-S11}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00399-0}, pmid = {30728514}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30726279, year = {2019}, author = {Le, PVV and Kumar, P and Ruiz, MO and Mbogo, C and Muturi, EJ}, title = {Predicting the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on malaria in coastal Kenya.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {e0211258}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0211258}, pmid = {30726279}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The transmission of malaria is highly variable and depends on a range of climatic and anthropogenic factors. This study investigates the combined, i.e. direct and indirect, impacts of climate change on the dynamics of malaria through modifications in: (i) the sporogonic cycle of Plasmodium induced by air temperature increase, and (ii) the life cycle of Anopheles vector triggered by changes in natural breeding habitat arising from the altered moisture dynamics resulting from acclimation responses of vegetation under climate change. The study is performed for a rural region in Kilifi county, Kenya.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use a stochastic lattice-based malaria (SLIM) model to make predictions of changes in Anopheles vector abundance, the life cycle of Plasmodium parasites, and thus malaria transmission under projected climate change in the study region. SLIM incorporates a nonlinear temperature-dependence of malaria parasite development to estimate the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium. It is also linked with a spatially distributed eco-hydrologic modeling framework to capture the impacts of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, which served as a key determinant for the formation and persistence of mosquito larval habitats on the land surface. Malaria incidence data collected from 2008 to 2013 is used for SLIM model validation. Projections of climate change and human population for the region are used to run the models for prediction scenarios. Under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) only, modeled results reveal wetter soil moisture in the root zone due to the suppression of transpiration from vegetation acclimation, which increases the abundance of Anopheles vectors and the risk of malaria. When air temperature increases are also considered along with elevated [CO2], the life cycle of Anopheles vector and the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium parasites are shortened nonlinearly. However, the reduction of soil moisture resulting from higher evapotranspiration due to air temperature increase also reduces the larval habitats of the vector. Our findings show the complicated role of vegetation acclimation under elevated [CO2] on malaria dynamics and indicate an indirect but ignored impact of air temperature increase on malaria transmission through reduction in larval habitats and vector density.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Vegetation acclimation triggered by elevated [CO2] under climate change increases the risk of malaria. In addition, air temperature increase under climate change has opposing effects on mosquito larval habitats and the life cycles of both Anopheles vectors and Plasmodium parasites. The indirect impacts of temperature change on soil moisture dynamics are significant and should be weighed together with the direct effects of temperature change on the life cycles of mosquitoes and parasites for future malaria prediction and control.}, }
@article {pmid30726183, year = {2019}, author = {Pan, Y and Opgenhaffen, M and Van Gorp, B}, title = {Negotiating climate change: A frame analysis of COP21 in British, American, and Chinese news media.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {963662518823969}, doi = {10.1177/0963662518823969}, pmid = {30726183}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {Climate negotiations have increasingly resonated with global governance and world power relations. However, media studies of climate change have paid relatively less attention to media frames of the problem solving. This study addresses this issue by examining the media coverage of COP21 from three countries that have considerable influence on climate politics: the United Kingdom, the United States, and China. By applying an inductive frame analysis, the study identified 10 media frames embedded in the discussions on climate negotiations. A deductive analysis further assessed the prevalence of these frames. The findings suggest that the frames were significantly influenced by the values of the established and emerging powers in the international policy area. The British and American media upheld the underlying norms that have long underpinned the existing Western-led order, while Chinese media coverage manifested a rising power in need of world recognition.}, }
@article {pmid30721162, year = {2019}, author = {Wellenius, GA and Sheffield, PE}, title = {The US Government Just Published a New Report Detailing the Impacts of Climate Change on Americans: Does it Matter?.}, journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {163-165}, doi = {10.1097/EDE.0000000000000952}, pmid = {30721162}, issn = {1531-5487}, }
@article {pmid30718624, year = {2019}, author = {Liang, P and Wang, X and Sun, H and Fan, Y and Wu, Y and Lin, X and Chang, J}, title = {Forest type and height are important in shaping the altitudinal change of radial growth response to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1336}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-37823-w}, pmid = {30718624}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {31870430//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 31370620//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Tree radial growth is widely found to respond differently to climate change across altitudinal gradients, but the relative roles of biotic factors (e.g. forest type, height and density) vs. climate gradient remain unclear. We sampled tree rings from 15 plots along a large altitudinal gradient in northeast China, and examined how climate gradient, forest type, height, tree size and density affect: (1) temporal growth variability [mean sensitivity (MS) and standard deviation (SD) of the chronologies], and (2) the relationship of ring width indices (RWI) with historical climate. We used BIC based model selection and variable importance to explore the major drivers of their altitudinal patterns. The results showed that: both growth variability and RWI-climate relationships changed significantly with altitude. Forest height was the most important predictor for altitudinal changes of MS and SD. For RWI-climate relationships, forest type was more important than climate gradient, while height and stem density were weak but necessary predictors. We showed that the altitudinal difference in growth response to climate change cannot be explained by climate gradient alone, and highlight the necessity to examine the influence of biotic factors (which covary with climate across geographic gradient) to better understand forest response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30718491, year = {2019}, author = {Dutkiewicz, S and Hickman, AE and Jahn, O and Henson, S and Beaulieu, C and Monier, E}, title = {Ocean colour signature of climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {578}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-08457-x}, pmid = {30718491}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Monitoring changes in marine phytoplankton is important as they form the foundation of the marine food web and are crucial in the carbon cycle. Often Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is used to track changes in phytoplankton, since there are global, regular satellite-derived estimates. However, satellite sensors do not measure Chl-a directly. Instead, Chl-a is estimated from remote sensing reflectance (RRS): the ratio of upwelling radiance to the downwelling irradiance at the ocean's surface. Using a model, we show that RRS in the blue-green spectrum is likely to have a stronger and earlier climate-change-driven signal than Chl-a. This is because RRS has lower natural variability and integrates not only changes to in-water Chl-a, but also alterations in other optically important constituents. Phytoplankton community structure, which strongly affects ocean optics, is likely to show one of the clearest and most rapid signatures of changes to the base of the marine ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid30713361, year = {2018}, author = {Levy, G and Vignudelli, S and Gower, J}, title = {Enabling earth observations in support of global, coastal, ocean, and climate change research and monitoring.}, journal = {International journal of remote sensing}, volume = {39}, number = {13}, pages = {4287-4292}, doi = {10.1080/01431161.2018.1464101}, pmid = {30713361}, issn = {0143-1161}, support = {NNX16AP70G//NASA/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid30712279, year = {2019}, author = {Frauendorf, TC and MacKenzie, RA and Tingley, RW and Frazier, AG and Riney, MH and El-Sabaawi, RW}, title = {Evaluating ecosystem effects of climate change on tropical island streams using high spatial and temporal resolution sampling regimes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14584}, pmid = {30712279}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//USDA Pacific Southwest Research Station/ ; //USDA Washington Office/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns worldwide, which will affect streamflow in riverine ecosystems. It is vital to understand the impacts of projected flow variations, especially in tropical regions where the effects of climate change are expected to be one of the earliest to emerge. Space-for-time substitutions have been successful at predicting effects of climate change in terrestrial systems by using a spatial gradient to mimic the projected temporal change. However, concerns have been raised that the spatial variability in these models might not reflect the temporal variability. We utilized a well-constrained rainfall gradient on Hawaii Island to determine (a) how predicted decreases in flow and increases in flow variability affect stream food resources and consumers and (b) if using a high temporal (monthly, four streams) or a high spatial (annual, eight streams) resolution sampling scheme would alter the results of a space-for-time substitution. Declines in benthic and suspended resource quantity (10- to 40-fold) and quality (shift from macrophyte to leaf litter dominated) contributed to 35-fold decreases in macroinvertebrate biomass with predicted changes in the magnitude and variability in the flow. Invertebrate composition switched from caddisflies and damselflies to taxa with faster turnover rates (mosquitoes, copepods). Changes in resource and consumer composition patterns were stronger with high temporal resolution sampling. However, trends and ranges of results did not differ between the two sampling regimes, indicating that a suitable, well-constrained spatial gradient is an appropriate tool for examining temporal change. Our study is the first to investigate resource to community wide effects of climate change on tropical streams on a spatial and temporal scale. We determined that predicted flow alterations would decrease stream resource and consumer quantity and quality, which can alter stream function, as well as biomass and habitat for freshwater, marine, and terrestrial consumers dependent on these resources.}, }
@article {pmid30709074, year = {2019}, author = {Salas, RN}, title = {Climate Change: A Review of a Public Health Opportunity for the Northeast.}, journal = {Rhode Island medical journal (2013)}, volume = {102}, number = {1}, pages = {42-45}, pmid = {30709074}, issn = {2327-2228}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Greenhouse Effect/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; North America ; Policy Making ; *Public Health ; Public Health Surveillance ; }, abstract = {[Full article available at http://rimed.org/rimedicaljournal-2019-02.asp].}, }
@article {pmid30706600, year = {2019}, author = {Díaz, FP and Latorre, C and Carrasco-Puga, G and Wood, JR and Wilmshurst, JM and Soto, DC and Cole, TL and Gutiérrez, RA}, title = {Multiscale climate change impacts on plant diversity in the Atacama Desert.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14583}, pmid = {30706600}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DE-FOA-0001207//EvoNet/ ; AFB-170008//CONICYT Aporte de Financiamiento Basal/ ; //Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research/ ; 15090007//Fondo de Desarrollo de Areas Prioritarias (FONDAP) Center for Genome Regulation/ ; 3150616//Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico/ ; //Strategic Science Investment Funding for Crown Research Institutes/ ; //Millennium Institute for Integrative Biology (iBio) Iniciativa Científica Milenio-MINECON/ ; }, abstract = {Comprehending ecological dynamics requires not only knowledge of modern communities but also detailed reconstructions of ecosystem history. Ancient DNA (aDNA) metabarcoding allows biodiversity responses to major climatic change to be explored at different spatial and temporal scales. We extracted aDNA preserved in fossil rodent middens to reconstruct late Quaternary vegetation dynamics in the hyperarid Atacama Desert. By comparing our paleo-informed millennial record with contemporary observations of interannual variations in diversity, we show local plant communities behave differentially at different timescales. In the interannual (years to decades) time frame, only annual herbaceous expand and contract their distributional ranges (emerging from persistent seed banks) in response to precipitation, whereas perennials distribution appears to be extraordinarily resilient. In contrast, at longer timescales (thousands of years) many perennial species were displaced up to 1,000 m downslope during pluvial events. Given ongoing and future natural and anthropogenically induced climate change, our results not only provide baselines for vegetation in the Atacama Desert, but also help to inform how these and other high mountain plant communities may respond to fluctuations of climate in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30705325, year = {2019}, author = {Amélineau, F and Grémillet, D and Harding, AMA and Walkusz, W and Choquet, R and Fort, J}, title = {Arctic climate change and pollution impact little auk foraging and fitness across a decade.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1014}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-38042-z}, pmid = {30705325}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {0612504//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 388//Institut Polaire Fran&amp;#x00E7;ais Paul Emile Victor (Institut Fran&amp;#x00E7;ais pour la Recherche et la Technologie Polaire)/ ; GEFNE 41-12//National Geographic Society/ ; }, abstract = {Ongoing global changes apply drastic environmental forcing onto Arctic marine ecosystems, particularly through ocean warming, sea-ice shrinkage and enhanced pollution. To test impacts on arctic marine ecological functioning, we used a 12-year integrative study of little auks (Alle alle), the most abundant seabird in the Atlantic Arctic. We monitored the foraging ecology, reproduction, survival and body condition of breeding birds, and we tested linkages between these biological variables and a set of environmental parameters including sea-ice concentration (SIC) and mercury contamination. Little auks showed substantial plasticity in response to SIC, with deeper and longer dives but less time spent underwater and more time flying when SIC decreased. Their diet also contained less lipid-rich ice-associated prey when SIC decreased. Further, in contrast to former studies conducted at the annual scale, little auk fitness proxies were impacted by environmental changes: Adult body condition and chick growth rate were negatively linked to SIC and mercury contamination. However, no trend was found for adult survival despite high inter-annual variability. Our results suggest that potential benefits of milder climatic conditions in East Greenland may be offset by increasing pollution in the Arctic. Overall, our study stresses the importance of long-term studies integrating ecology and ecotoxicology.}, }
@article {pmid30704089, year = {2019}, author = {Raza, A and Razzaq, A and Mehmood, SS and Zou, X and Zhang, X and Lv, Y and Xu, J}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Crops Adaptation and Strategies to Tackle Its Outcome: A Review.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants8020034}, pmid = {30704089}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2017YFD0101701//National Basic Research Program of China (2017YFD0101701) and Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program of CAAS./ ; }, abstract = {Agriculture and climate change are internally correlated with each other in various aspects, as climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses, which have adverse effects on the agriculture of a region. The land and its agriculture are being affected by climate changes in different ways, e.g., variations in annual rainfall, average temperature, heat waves, modifications in weeds, pests or microbes, global change of atmospheric CO₂ or ozone level, and fluctuations in sea level. The threat of varying global climate has greatly driven the attention of scientists, as these variations are imparting negative impact on global crop production and compromising food security worldwide. According to some predicted reports, agriculture is considered the most endangered activity adversely affected by climate changes. To date, food security and ecosystem resilience are the most concerning subjects worldwide. Climate-smart agriculture is the only way to lower the negative impact of climate variations on crop adaptation, before it might affect global crop production drastically. In this review paper, we summarize the causes of climate change, stresses produced due to climate change, impacts on crops, modern breeding technologies, and biotechnological strategies to cope with climate change, in order to develop climate resilient crops. Revolutions in genetic engineering techniques can also aid in overcoming food security issues against extreme environmental conditions, by producing transgenic plants.}, }
@article {pmid30703725, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmadalipour, A and Moradkhani, H and Castelletti, A and Magliocca, N}, title = {Future drought risk in Africa: Integrating vulnerability, climate change, and population growth.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {662}, number = {}, pages = {672-686}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.278}, pmid = {30703725}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Drought risk refers to the potential losses from hazard imposed by a drought event, and it is generally characterized as a function of vulnerability, hazard, and exposure. In this study, drought risk is assessed at a national level across Africa, and the impacts of climate change, population growth, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities on drought risk are investigated. A rigorous framework is implemented to quantify drought vulnerability considering various sectors including economy, energy and infrastructure, health, land use, society, and water resources. Multi-model and multi-scenario analyses are employed to quantify drought hazard using an ensemble of 10 regional climate models and a multi-scalar drought index. Drought risk is then assessed in each country for 2 climate emission pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), 3 population scenarios, and 3 vulnerability scenarios during three future periods between 2010 and 2100. Drought risk ratio is quantified, and the role of each component (i.e. hazard, vulnerability, and exposure) is identified, and the associated uncertainties are also characterized. Results show that drought risk is expected to increase in future across Africa with varied rates for different models and scenarios. Although northern African countries indicate aggravating drought hazard, drought risk ratio is found to be highest in central African countries as a consequent of vulnerability and population rise in that region. Results indicate that if no climate change adaptation is implemented, unprecedented drought hazard and risk will occur decades earlier. In addition, controlling population growth is found to be imperative for mitigating drought risk in Africa (even more effective than climate change mitigation), as it improves socioeconomic vulnerability and reduces potential exposure to drought.}, }
@article {pmid30701216, year = {2018}, author = {Ganne-Carrié, N}, title = {Alcohol-related liver disease: do weather and daylight level matter or is there a paradoxical good side of global warming?.}, journal = {Translational gastroenterology and hepatology}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {109}, doi = {10.21037/tgh.2018.12.08}, pmid = {30701216}, issn = {2415-1289}, }
@article {pmid30700855, year = {2019}, author = {Soultan, A and Wikelski, M and Safi, K}, title = {Risk of biodiversity collapse under climate change in the Afro-Arabian region.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {955}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-37851-6}, pmid = {30700855}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {For 107 endemic mammal species in the Afro-Arabian region, Sahara-Sahel and Arabian Desert, we used ensemble species distribution models to: (1) identify the hotspot areas for conservation, (2) assess the potential impact of the projected climate change on the distribution of the focal species, and (3) assign IUCN threat categories for the focal species according to the predicted changes in their potential distribution range. We identified two main hotspot areas for endemic mammals: the Sinai and its surrounding coastal area in the East, and the Mediterranean Coast around Morocco in the West. Alarmingly, our results indicate that about 17% of the endemic mammals in the Afro-Arabian region under the current climate change scenarios could go extinct before 2050. Overall, a substantial number of the endemic species will change from the IUCN threat category &quot;Least Concern&quot; to &quot;Critically Endangered&quot; or &quot;Extinct&quot; in the coming decades. Accordingly, we call for implementing an urgent proactive conservation action for these endemic species, particularly those that face a high risk of extinction in the next few years. The results of our study provide conservation managers and practitioners with the required information for implementing an effective conservation plan to protect the biodiversity of the Afro-Arabian region.}, }
@article {pmid30700377, year = {2019}, author = {Swinburn, BA and Kraak, VI and Allender, S and Atkins, VJ and Baker, PI and Bogard, JR and Brinsden, H and Calvillo, A and De Schutter, O and Devarajan, R and Ezzati, M and Friel, S and Goenka, S and Hammond, RA and Hastings, G and Hawkes, C and Herrero, M and Hovmand, PS and Howden, M and Jaacks, LM and Kapetanaki, AB and Kasman, M and Kuhnlein, HV and Kumanyika, SK and Larijani, B and Lobstein, T and Long, MW and Matsudo, VKR and Mills, SDH and Morgan, G and Morshed, A and Nece, PM and Pan, A and Patterson, DW and Sacks, G and Shekar, M and Simmons, GL and Smit, W and Tootee, A and Vandevijvere, S and Waterlander, WE and Wolfenden, L and Dietz, WH}, title = {The Global Syndemic of Obesity, Undernutrition, and Climate Change: The Lancet Commission report.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10173}, pages = {791-846}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32822-8}, pmid = {30700377}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {T32 HL130357/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid30699991, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, T and Ren, Z and Zhang, Y and Feng, B and Lin, H and Xiao, J and Zeng, W and Li, X and Li, Z and Rutherford, S and Xu, Y and Lin, S and Nasca, PC and Du, Y and Wang, J and Huang, C and Jia, P and Ma, W}, title = {Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16030376}, pmid = {30699991}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {S2013010014670//the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province/ ; 201616//Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission/ ; 2012CB955503//National Science and Technology Major Program/ ; }, abstract = {(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.}, }
@article {pmid30698987, year = {2019}, author = {Burggren, WW}, title = {Inadequacy of typical physiological experimental protocols for investigating consequences of stochastic weather events emerging from global warming.}, journal = {American journal of physiology. Regulatory, integrative and comparative physiology}, volume = {316}, number = {4}, pages = {R318-R322}, doi = {10.1152/ajpregu.00307.2018}, pmid = {30698987}, issn = {1522-1490}, abstract = {Increasingly variable, extreme, and nonpredictable weather events are predicted to accompany climate change, and such weather events will especially affect temperate, terrestrial environments. Yet, typical protocols in comparative physiology that examine environmental change typically employ simple step-wise changes in the experimental stressor of interest (e.g., temperature, water availability, oxygen, nutrition). Such protocols fall short of mimicking actual natural environments and may be inadequate for fully exploring the physiological effects of stochastic, extreme weather events. Indeed, numerous studies from the field of thermal biology, especially, indicate nonlinear and sometimes counterintuitive findings associated with variable and fluctuating (but rarely truly stochastic) protocols for temperature change. This Perspective article suggests that alternative experimental protocols should be employed that go beyond step-wise protocols and even beyond variable protocols employing circadian rhythms, for example, to those that actually embrace nonpredictable elements. Such protocols, though admittedly more difficult to implement, are more likely to reveal the capabilities (and, importantly, the limitations) of animals experiencing weather, as distinct from climate. While some possible protocols involving stochasticity are described as examples to stimulate additional thought on experimental design, the overall goal of this Perspective article is to encourage comparative physiologists to entertain incorporation of nonpredictable experimental conditions as they design future experimental protocols.}, }
@article {pmid30698905, year = {2019}, author = {Bruno, D and Belmar, O and Maire, A and Morel, A and Dumont, B and Datry, T}, title = {Structural and functional responses of invertebrate communities to climate change and flow regulation in alpine catchments.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14581}, pmid = {30698905}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {MINECO FJCI-2016-29856//Programa Juan de la Cierva formación/ ; }, abstract = {Understanding and predicting how biological communities respond to climate change is critical for assessing biodiversity vulnerability and guiding conservation efforts. Glacier- and snow-fed rivers are one of the most sensitive ecosystems to climate change, and can provide early warning of wider-scale changes. These rivers are frequently used for hydropower production but there is minimal understanding of how biological communities are influenced by climate change in a context of flow regulation. This study sheds light on this issue by disentangling structural (water temperature preference, taxonomic composition, alpha, beta and gamma diversities) and functional (functional traits, diversity, richness, evenness, dispersion and redundancy) effects of climate change in interaction with flow regulation in the Alps. For this, we compared environmental and aquatic invertebrate data collected in the 1970s and 2010s in regulated and unregulated alpine catchments. We hypothesized a replacement of cold-adapted species by warming-tolerant ones, high temporal and spatial turnover in taxa and trait composition, along with reduced taxonomic and functional diversities in consequence of climate change. We expected communities in regulated rivers to respond more drastically due to additive or synergistic effects between flow regulation and climate change. We found divergent structural but convergent functional responses between free-flowing and regulated catchments. Although cold-adapted taxa decreased in both of them, greater colonization and spread of thermophilic species was found in the free-flowing one, resulting in higher spatial and temporal turnover. Since the 1970s, taxonomic diversity increased in the free flowing but decreased in the regulated catchment due to biotic homogenization. Colonization by taxa with new functional strategies (i.e. multivoltine taxa with small body size, resistance forms, aerial dispersion and reproduction by clutches) increased functional diversity but decreased functional redundancy through time. These functional changes could jeopardize the ability of aquatic communities facing intensification of ongoing climate change or new anthropogenic disturbances.}, }
@article {pmid30691890, year = {2019}, author = {Mertenat, A and Diener, S and Zurbrügg, C}, title = {Black Soldier Fly biowaste treatment - Assessment of global warming potential.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {84}, number = {}, pages = {173-181}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2018.11.040}, pmid = {30691890}, issn = {1879-2456}, abstract = {Cities of low and middle-income countries face severe challenges in managing the increasing amount of waste produced, especially the organic fraction. Black Soldier Fly (BSF) biowaste treatment is an attractive treatment option as it offers a solution for waste management while also providing a protein source to help alleviate the rising global demand for animal feed. However, to-date very little information is available on how this technology performs with regard to direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming potential (GWP). This paper presents a study that uses a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach to assess the GWP of a BSF waste treatment facility in the case of Indonesia and compares it with respective values for an open windrow composting facility. Direct CH4 and N2O samples were extracted from BSF treatment units and analyzed by gas chromatography. Results show that direct CO2eq emissions are 47 times lower the emissions from composting. Regarding the overall GWP, the LCA shows that composting has double the GWP of BSF treatment facility based on the functional unit of 1 ton of biowaste (wet weight). The main GWP contribution from a BSF facility are from: (1) residue post-composting (69%) and (2) electricity needs and source (up to 55%). Fishmeal production substitution by BSF larvae meal can reduce significantly the GWP (up to 30%). Based on this study, we conclude that BSF biowaste treatment offers an environmentally relevant alternative with very low direct GHG emissions and potentially high GWP reduction. Further research should improve residue post-treatment.}, }
@article {pmid30688178, year = {2019}, author = {Macdiarmid, JI and Whybrow, S}, title = {Nutrition from a climate change perspective.}, journal = {The Proceedings of the Nutrition Society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-8}, doi = {10.1017/S0029665118002896}, pmid = {30688178}, issn = {1475-2719}, abstract = {Climate change is threatening future global food and nutrition security. Limiting the increase in global temperature to 1·5 °C set out in The Paris Agreement (2015) while achieving nutrient security means overhauling the current food system to create one that can deliver healthy and sustainable diets. To attain this, it is critical to understand the implications for nutrition of actions to mitigate climate change as well as the impacts of climate change on food production and the nutrient composition of foods. It is widely recognised that livestock production has a much greater environmental burden than crop production, and therefore advice is to reduce meat consumption. This has triggered concern in some sectors about a lack of protein in diets, which hence is driving efforts to find protein replacements. However, in most high- and middle-income countries, protein intakes far exceed dietary requirements and it would even if all meat were removed from diets. Reduction in micronutrients should be given more attention when reducing meat. Simply eating less meat does not guarantee healthier or more sustainable diets. Climate change will also affect the type, amount and nutrient quality of food that can be produced. Studies have shown that increased temperature and elevated CO2 levels can reduce the nutrient density of some staple crops, which is of particular concern in low-income countries. Nutrition from a climate change perspective means considering the potential consequences of any climate action on food and nutrition security. In this paper, we discuss these issues from an interdisciplinary perspective.}, }
@article {pmid30687988, year = {2019}, author = {Ettinger, AK and Chuine, I and Cook, BI and Dukes, JS and Ellison, AM and Johnston, MR and Panetta, AM and Rollinson, CR and Vitasse, Y and Wolkovich, EM}, title = {How do climate change experiments alter plot-scale climate?.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {748-763}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13223}, pmid = {30687988}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {NSF DBI 14-01854//National Science Foundation/ ; //Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study at Harvard University/ ; }, abstract = {To understand and forecast biological responses to climate change, scientists frequently use field experiments that alter temperature and precipitation. Climate manipulations can manifest in complex ways, however, challenging interpretations of biological responses. We reviewed publications to compile a database of daily plot-scale climate data from 15 active-warming experiments. We find that the common practices of analysing treatments as mean or categorical changes (e.g. warmed vs. unwarmed) masks important variation in treatment effects over space and time. Our synthesis showed that measured mean warming, in plots with the same target warming within a study, differed by up to 1.6 ∘ C (63% of target), on average, across six studies with blocked designs. Variation was high across sites and designs: for example, plots differed by 1.1 ∘ C (47% of target) on average, for infrared studies with feedback control (n = 3) vs. by 2.2 ∘ C (80% of target) on average for infrared with constant wattage designs (n = 2). Warming treatments produce non-temperature effects as well, such as soil drying. The combination of these direct and indirect effects is complex and can have important biological consequences. With a case study of plant phenology across five experiments in our database, we show how accounting for drier soils with warming tripled the estimated sensitivity of budburst to temperature. We provide recommendations for future analyses, experimental design, and data sharing to improve our mechanistic understanding from climate change experiments, and thus their utility to accurately forecast species' responses.}, }
@article {pmid30682609, year = {2019}, author = {Kriaučiūnienė, J and Virbickas, T and Šarauskienė, D and Jakimavičius, D and Kažys, J and Bukantis, A and Kesminas, V and Povilaitis, A and Dainys, J and Akstinas, V and Jurgelėnaitė, A and Meilutytė-Lukauskienė, D and Tomkevičienė, A}, title = {Fish assemblages under climate change in Lithuanian rivers.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {661}, number = {}, pages = {563-574}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.142}, pmid = {30682609}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Biota/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Hot Temperature ; Hydrology ; Lithuania ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rivers/chemistry ; Salmo salar/physiology ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Alterations of abiotic factors (e.g., river water temperature and discharge) will definitely affect the fundamental processes of aquatic ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of climate change on the structure of fish assemblages in fast-flowing rivers belonging to the catchment of the major Eastern European river, the Nemunas. Five catchments of semi-natural rivers were selected for the study. Projections of abiotic factors were developed for the near (2016-2035) and far future (2081-2100) periods, according to four RCP scenarios and three climate models using the HBV hydrological modelling tool. Fish metric projections were developed based on a multiple regression using spatial data. No significant changes in projections of abiotic and biotic variables are generally expected in the near future. In the far future period, the abiotic factors are projected to change significantly, i.e., river water temperature is going to increase by 4.0-5.1 °C, and river discharge is projected to decrease by 16.7-40.6%, according to RCP8.5. By the end of century, the relative abundance of stenothermal fish is projected to decline from 24 to 51% in the reference period to 0-20% under RCP8.5. Eurythermal fish should benefit from climate change, and their abundance is likely to increase from 16 to 38% in the reference period to 38-65% under RCP8.5. Future alterations of river water temperature will have significantly more influence on the abundance of the analysed fish assemblages than river discharge.}, }
@article {pmid30680858, year = {2019}, author = {Rinkevich, B}, title = {Coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue mechanism to mitigate global climate change impacts.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14576}, pmid = {30680858}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {M33-001//USAID-MERC program/ ; //Israeli-French high council for scientific &amp; technological research program/ ; //NAF/IOLR/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change and anthropogenic pressures inflict a wide range of profound damages on coral reef ecosystems, reshaping coral reef communities due to their physiological and ecological intolerance to the newly developing environmental conditions. Here, I present coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue tool for accelerating adaptive responses to global climate change impacts. The &quot;evolutionary rescue&quot; power is contingent on the premise that coral chimerism counters the erosion of genetic and phenotypic diversity. Further benefits are gained when flexible chimeric entities alter their somatic constituents following changes in environmental conditions, synergistically presenting the best-fitting combination of their genetic components to endure in a capricious environment, exhibiting always their environmentally matched physiological characteristics. Chimerism should be considered as an integral part of the ecological engineering toolbox being developed for active reef restoration.}, }
@article {pmid30680250, year = {2018}, author = {Newman, G and Qiao, Z}, title = {Climate Change Armor.}, journal = {Cheng shi she ji (2015)}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {50-63}, pmid = {30680250}, issn = {2096-1235}, support = {P42 ES027704/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate Change Armor is a collection of adaptive flood attenuation mechanisms for protecting newly designed communities from flood events and the eventual impacts of sea level rise. League City, TX is used as an application site. NOAA predicts that sea levels will increase and storm surge will become more frequent along the Texas coast. In the Gulf Coast, sea level projects to rise up to 629 feet by 2100. The Climate Change Armor Toolkit comprises both structural and non-structural mechanisms which are either engineered to block and control heavy floods or rely on natural systems and green infrastructure to attenuate flood waters from frequent storms or hazard flood events. With the application of the Armor Toolkit, 221,921 cubic feet of runoff can be captured, nearly 2,400 new residents are protected, over 3,000 jobs are created, $23 million in physical flood damage can be avoided, and approximately $1.3 billion can be generated in the life cycle benefits of the newly designed community by 2100.}, }
@article {pmid30680125, year = {2019}, author = {Li, R}, title = {Protecting rare and endangered species under climate change on the Qinghai Plateau, China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {427-436}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4761}, pmid = {30680125}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change-induced species range shift may pose severe challenges to species conservation. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the highest and biggest plateau, and also one of the most sensitive areas to global warming in the world, which provides important shelters for a unique assemblage of species. Here, ecological niche-based model was employed to project the potential distributions of 59 key rare and endangered species under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Qinghai Province. I assessed the potential impacts of climate change on these key species (habitats, species richness and turnover) and effectiveness of nature reserves (NRs) in protecting these species. The results revealed that that climate change would shrink the geographic ranges of about a third studied species and expand the habitats for two thirds of these species, which would thus alter the conservation value of some local areas and conservation effectiveness of some NRs in Qinghai Province. Some regions require special attention as they are expected to experience significant changes in species turnover, species richness or newly colonized species in the future, including Haidong, Haibei and Haixi junctions, the southwestern Yushu, Qinghai Nuomuhong Provincial NR, Qinghai Qaidam and Haloxylon Forest NR. The Haidong and the eastern part of Haibei, are projected to have high species richness and conservation value in both current and future, but they are currently not protected, and thus require extra protection in the future. The results could provide the first basis on the high latitude region to formulate biodiversity conservation strategies on climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid30677982, year = {2019}, author = {Garofalo, P and Ventrella, D and Kersebaum, KC and Gobin, A and Trnka, M and Giglio, L and Dubrovský, M and Castellini, M}, title = {Water footprint of winter wheat under climate change: Trends and uncertainties associated to the ensemble of crop models.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {1186-1208}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.279}, pmid = {30677982}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; Germany ; Italy ; Models, Biological ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Uncertainty ; Water/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change could undermine the future grain production as a consequence of increased temperature and drought condition or improve the crop performance owing to the increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Wheat water demand and yield are strictly related to climate conditions of the area where the plants are cropped. In this study, we assessed the future trends of grain yield and water consumption in two European regions, Germany (Continental region) and Italy (Mediterranean region) in the light of the multiple sources of uncertainty related to climate and yield forecasts. Four crop models were set up under combinations of two European climate regions, five Global Circulation Models and two Representative CO2 Concentration Pathways, 486 ppm and 540 ppm in 2050. Yield and water use were assessed under rainfed and irrigated regimes, and the water footprint of green water and total water was estimated. Our results indicated that projected yields were comparable (Mediterranean area) or even improved (+9%; Continental area) in rainfed conditions in comparison to the current trend; and water supply enhanced crop performance (+22% in Germany and +19% in Italy, as mean). Crop water consumption (both green and blue) remained stable in future projections but the water footprint was 5% lower on average in Italy and 23% in Germany when compared to the baseline. Despite the uncertainty in future predictions related to the factors analysed, our result indicated that current wheat production and its water footprint could become more favourable under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30677981, year = {2019}, author = {Li, W and Xu, X and Yao, J and Tanaka, N and Nishimura, O and Ma, H}, title = {Combined effects of elevated carbon dioxide and temperature on phytoplankton-zooplankton link: A multi-influence of climate change on freshwater planktonic communities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {1175-1185}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.180}, pmid = {30677981}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Food Chain ; *Hot Temperature ; Japan ; Lakes ; Phytoplankton/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; Zooplankton/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {It is essential to understand the combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on phytoplankton-zooplankton link when attempting to predict climate change responses of freshwater ecosystems. Phytoplankton species differ in stoichiometric and fatty acids composition, and this may result in phytoplankton-mediated effect on zooplankton at elevated CO2 and temperature. Beyond the isolated analysis of CO2 or temperature effect, few studies have assessed zooplankton growth under the phytoplankton-mediated effects of elevated CO2 and temperature. In this study, three algal species (green alga, diatom, cyanobacteria) were fed on zooplankton Daphnia magna, under the conditions of CO2 concentrations of ambient (390 ppm) and elevated (1000 ppm) levels and temperatures at 20, 25 and 30 °C. Elevated CO2 increased the algal biomass, while it reduced the phosphorus (P) and ω3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (ω3 PUFAs) to carbon (C) ratios. Elevated temperature decreased the P/C ratios in all algal cultures and ω3 PUFAs/C ratios in the diatom and the cyanobacteria cultures. Phytoplankton-mediated effect of elevated CO2 reduced the growth of zooplankton fed on the green and the mixed three algae culture. The stimulation of zooplankton fed on the diatom and the cyanobacteria by elevated temperature can be offset by decreasing food P and ω3 PUFAs contents. The combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on the growth of daphnids were mainly mediated by ω3 PUFAs/C ratios in the phytoplankton. Rising temperature as a combined direct and indirectly phytoplankton-mediated effect on zooplankton may be able to ameliorate the negative effects of elevated CO2. The results indicated that the combined effects of increased CO2 and temperature increased the fatty acid content of the green alga but not the other algae. This study highlighted that climate change with simultaneously increasing temperature and CO2 may entangle the carbon transfer in freshwater planktonic communities.}, }
@article {pmid30677973, year = {2019}, author = {He, W and Lian, J and Zhang, J and Yu, X and Chen, S}, title = {Impact of intra-annual runoff uniformity and global warming on the thermal regime of a large reservoir.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {1085-1097}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.207}, pmid = {30677973}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Thermal stratification is common in reservoirs and greatly influences the aquatic environment. Changes in the uniformity of intra-annual runoff have been detected in several basins, but few studies have focused on the impacts that these changes have on thermal regimes. Using runoff data for Sanbanxi Reservoir, China, during 1950-2015, the long-term trends of intra-annual runoff uniformity were statistically analyzed and extrapolated for the 2050s and 2090s, and the relationship between these trends and the thermal regime of the reservoir were investigated. Moreover, the thermal regime was evaluated for future climate scenarios accounting for global warming. This study shows the following: 1) for South China, the concentration degree (Cd) for the distribution of intra-annual runoff in natural basins such as Sanbanxi Reservoir tended to be higher, but for rivers significantly impacted by human activities, Cd tended to be lower. 2) a higher Cd was associated with an increased reservoir temperature and released water temperature, and decreased thermal stability. For Sanbanxi Reservoir, a 10% increase in Cd corresponded to a change in annual average temperature, thermal stability, and released water temperature of 0.036 °C, -48.4 J m-2, and 0.153 °C, respectively. These changes were larger in summer than in other seasons; 3) global warming is predicted to increase reservoir temperature, released water temperature, and thermal stability, having a more significant influence on these parameters than intra-annual runoff uniformity; 4) future changes in thermal regimes will intensify oxygen stratification and hypolimnetic anoxia, promoting algal blooms, and delaying fish spawning. Effects of two methods aimed at controlling the thermal regime were also analyzed, including changing the operation level and intake elevation of the reservoir. This study investigated the response of the thermal regime of Sanbanxi Reservoir to climate change, and provides theoretical support for the management of water temperature and the reservoir's aquatic environment.}, }
@article {pmid30677949, year = {2019}, author = {Santillán, D and Iglesias, A and La Jeunesse, I and Garrote, L and Sotes, V}, title = {Vineyards in transition: A global assessment of the adaptation needs of grape producing regions under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {657}, number = {}, pages = {839-852}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.079}, pmid = {30677949}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; China ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; Mediterranean Region ; Models, Statistical ; North America ; Oceania ; South Africa ; South America ; Temperature ; Vitis/*physiology ; }, abstract = {This paper suggests how climate change may transform vineyards. We consider changes in agro-climatic indicators derived from climatic variables as drivers for adaptation needs. We use two climate scenarios, GCM GFL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES, with 0.5° spatial resolution and daily time step forced by two emission scenarios, RCP2.6 and 6.0, to estimate the transition of potential vineyards in the major grape production world areas by the late 21st century. We present and discuss changes in three impact indicators - one drought indicator and two temperature ones - aimed at exploring the benefits of transition-based policies. The drought indicator provides insights to prepare adaptation for extreme events in probabilistic terms. The temperature indicators offer information on the transition towards suitable zones of production. Future projections suggest a lack of water to maintain current levels of production in all regions of the world. Furthermore, thermal suitability of grapevine may be greatly affected in China and the Mediterranean region. Nevertheless, the possibility of quality wines is not altered within the regions with adequate suitability. Lastly, a portfolio of strategies to adapt to the future climate is presented.}, }
@article {pmid30671678, year = {2019}, author = {Carlson, JM and Lehman, BR and Thompson, JL}, title = {Climate change images produce an attentional bias associated with pro-environmental disposition.}, journal = {Cognitive processing}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10339-019-00902-5}, pmid = {30671678}, issn = {1612-4790}, abstract = {Humans have developed mechanisms to prioritize certain sensory input(s). Emotionally salient stimuli automatically capture observers' attention at the cost of less salient information. This prioritized processing is called attentional bias. Images of climate change have been found to elicit emotional responses. Yet, to date, there is no research assessing the extent to which climate change-relevant images produce an attentional bias. In a sample of college students (N = 39), we found that (1) climate change-related images capture attention and that (2) this attentional bias is related to individual differences in environmental disposition. Thus, images of climate change are salient-attention grabbing-signals related to pro-environmental orientation.}, }
@article {pmid30671619, year = {2019}, author = {Mikovits, C and Zollitsch, W and Hörtenhuber, SJ and Baumgartner, J and Niebuhr, K and Piringer, M and Anders, I and Andre, K and Hennig-Pauka, I and Schönhart, M and Schauberger, G}, title = {Impacts of global warming on confined livestock systems for growing-fattening pigs: simulation of heat stress for 1981 to 2017 in Central Europe.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {63}, number = {2}, pages = {221-230}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-018-01655-0}, pmid = {30671619}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {ACRP8 ? PiPoCooL ? KR15AC8K12646//Austrian Climate Research Program/ ; }, abstract = {In the mid-latitudes, pigs and poultry are kept predominantly in confined livestock buildings with a mechanical ventilation system. In the last decades, global warming has already been a challenge which causes hat stress for animals in such systems. Heat stress inside livestock buildings was assessed by a simulation model for the indoor climate, which is driven by meteorological parameters. Besides the meteorological conditions, the thermal environment inside the building depends on the sensible and latent energy release of the animals, the thermal properties of the building and the ventilation system and its control unit. For a site in Austria in the north of the Alpine Ridge, which is representative for confined livestock buildings for growing-fattening pigs in Central Europe, meteorological data between 1981 and 2017 were used for the model calculations of heat stress measures. This business-as-usual simulation over these 37 years resulted in an increase of the mean relative annual heat stress parameters in the range between 0.9 and 6.4% per year since 1981. In order to minimise the negative economic impact as the consequence of this positive trend of heat stress, adaptation measures are needed. The calculations for growing-fattening pigs show that such a simulation model for the indoor climate is an appropriate tool to determine the level of heat stress of livestock inside confined livestock buildings.}, }
@article {pmid30671299, year = {2019}, author = {Sáenz-Romero, C and Kremer, A and Nagy, L and Újvári-Jármay, É and Ducousso, A and Kóczán-Horváth, A and Hansen, JK and Mátyás, C}, title = {Common garden comparisons confirm inherited differences in sensitivity to climate change between forest tree species.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6213}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.6213}, pmid = {30671299}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {The natural distribution, habitat, growth and evolutionary history of tree species are strongly dependent on ecological and genetic processes in ecosystems subject to fluctuating climatic conditions, but there have been few experimental comparisons of sensitivity between species. We compared the responses of two broadleaved tree species (Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea) and two conifer tree species (Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies) to climatic transfers by fitting models containing the same climatic variables. We used published data from European provenance test networks to model the responses of individual populations nested within species. A mixed model approach was applied to develop a response function for tree height over climatic transfer distance, taking into account the climatic conditions at both the seed source and the test location. The two broadleaved species had flat climatic response curves, indicating high levels of plasticity in populations, facilitating adaptation to a broader range of environments, and conferring a high potential for resilience in the face of climatic change. By contrast, the two conifer species had response curves with more pronounced slopes, indicating a lower resilience to climate change. This finding may reflect stronger genetic clines in P. sylvestris and P. abies, which constrain their climate responses to narrower climatic ranges. The response functions had maxima that deviated from the expected maximum productivity in the climate of provenance towards cooler/moister climate conditions, which we interpreted as an adaptation lag. Unilateral, linear regression analyses following transfer to warmer and drier sites confirmed a decline in productivity, predictive of the likely impact of ongoing climate change on forest populations. The responses to mimicked climate change evaluated here are of considerable interest for forestry and ecology, supporting projections of expected performance based on &quot;real-time&quot; field data.}, }
@article {pmid30671071, year = {2018}, author = {Varsamis, G and Papageorgiou, AC and Merou, T and Takos, I and Malesios, C and Manolis, A and Tsiripidis, I and Gailing, O}, title = {Adaptive Diversity of Beech Seedlings Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1918}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.01918}, pmid = {30671071}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The ability of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) populations to adapt to the ongoing climate change is especially important in the southern part of Europe, where environmental change is expected to be more intense. In this study, we tested the existing adaptive potential of eight beech populations from two provenances in N.E. Greece (Evros and Drama) that show differences in their environmental conditions and biogeographical background. Seedling survival, growth and leaf phenological traits were selected as adaptive traits and were measured under simulated controlled climate change conditions in a growth chamber. Seedling survival was also tested under current conditions in the field. In the growth chamber, simulated conditions of temperature and precipitation for the year 2050 were applied for 3 years, under two different irrigation schemes, where the same amount of water was distributed either frequently (once every week) or non-frequently (once in 20 days). The results showed that beech seedlings were generally able to survive under climate change conditions and showed adaptive differences among provenances and populations. Furthermore, changes in the duration of the growing season of seedlings were recorded in the growth chamber, allowing them to avoid environmental stress and high selection pressure. Differences were observed between populations and provenances in terms of temporal distribution patterns of precipitation and temperature, rather than the average annual or monthly values of these measures. Additionally, different adaptive strategies appeared among beech seedlings when the same amount of water was distributed differently within each month. This indicates that the physiological response mechanisms of beech individuals are very complex and depend on several interacting parameters. For this reason, the choice of beech provenances for translocation and use in afforestation or reforestation projects should consider the small scale ecotypic diversity of the species and view multiple environmental and climatic parameters in connection to each other.}, }
@article {pmid30670759, year = {2019}, author = {Montánchez, I and Ogayar, E and Plágaro, AH and Esteve-Codina, A and Gómez-Garrido, J and Orruño, M and Arana, I and Kaberdin, VR}, title = {Analysis of Vibrio harveyi adaptation in sea water microcosms at elevated temperature provides insights into the putative mechanisms of its persistence and spread in the time of global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {289}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-36483-0}, pmid = {30670759}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {CGL2015-70929-R//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&amp;#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; PT17/0009/0019//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&amp;#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; PT17/0009/0019//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&amp;#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; CGL2015-70929-R//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&amp;#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; CGL2015-70929-R//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&amp;#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; }, abstract = {Discovering the means to control the increasing dissemination of pathogenic vibrios driven by recent climate change is challenged by the limited knowledge of the mechanisms in charge of Vibrio spp. persistence and spread in the time of global warming. To learn about physiological and gene expression patterns associated with the long-term persistence of V. harveyi at elevated temperatures, we studied adaptation of this marine bacterium in seawater microcosms at 30 °C which closely mimicked the upper limit of sea surface temperatures around the globe. We found that nearly 90% of cells lost their culturability and became partly damaged after two weeks, thus suggesting a negative impact of the combined action of elevated temperature and shortage of carbon on V. harveyi survival. Moreover, further gene expression analysis revealed that major adaptive mechanisms were poorly coordinated and apparently could not sustain cell fitness. On the other hand, elevated temperature and starvation promoted expression of many virulence genes, thus potentially reinforcing the pathogenicity of this organism. These findings suggest that the increase in disease outbreaks caused by V. harveyi under rising sea surface temperatures may not reflect higher cell fitness, but rather an increase in virulence enabling V. harveyi to escape from adverse environments to nutrient rich, host-pathogen associations.}, }
@article {pmid30669456, year = {2019}, author = {Paterson, RRM}, title = {Ganoderma boninense Disease of Oil Palm to Significantly Reduce Production After 2050 in Sumatra if Projected Climate Change Occurs.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/microorganisms7010024}, pmid = {30669456}, issn = {2076-2607}, abstract = {Palm oil is a valuable crop. This relates to the high economic return from sales of the commodity, where Indonesia is the major producer in the world and the island of Sumatra is the most important region for palm oil production in the country. The island can be considered as a model for other oil palm growing regions in SE Asia. The area in Sumatra with a suitable climate for growing oil palm will decrease in size due to projected climate change as demonstrated specifically herein. The more unsuitable climate will lead to concomitant increases in basal stem rot (BSR) by Ganoderma boninense, as previously predicted, which is of major concern to sustainability in SE Asia. A novel approach is described herein, whereby (a) a determination of suitable climate for growing oil palm in Sumatra and (b) deductions to determine future BSR levels on the island were undertaken. The unsuitability of the climate for oil palm is predicted to increase dramatically after 2050 when BSR is predicted to increase to very high levels on most parts of the island. This is likely to make palm oil production unsustainable at some stage between 2050 and 2100. North Sumatra may be more sustainable than the other areas considered in Sumatra. These effects of projected climate change require amelioration before the high levels of BSR and the unsuitable climate for oil palm are realized.}, }
@article {pmid30667508, year = {2019}, author = {Friedrich, MJ}, title = {Tracking Progress on Mitigating Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {321}, number = {3}, pages = {238}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2018.21621}, pmid = {30667508}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid30666613, year = {2019}, author = {Rudel, TK and Meyfroidt, P and Chazdon, R and Bongers, F and Sloan, S and Grau, HR and Van Holt, T and Schneider, L}, title = {Whither the forest transition? Climate change, policy responses, and redistributed forests in the twenty-first century.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-018-01143-0}, pmid = {30666613}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {#DEB1313788//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Forest transitions occur when net reforestation replaces net deforestation in places. Because forest transitions can increase biodiversity and augment carbon sequestration, they appeal to policymakers contending with the degrading effects of forest loss and climate change. What then can policymakers do to trigger forest transitions? The historical record over the last two centuries provides insights into the precipitating conditions. The early transitions often occurred passively, through the spontaneous regeneration of trees on abandoned agricultural lands. Later forest transitions occurred more frequently after large-scale crisis narratives emerged and spurred governments to take action, often by planting trees on degraded, sloped lands. To a greater degree than their predecessors, latecomer forest transitions exhibit centralized loci of power, leaders with clearly articulated goals, and rapid changes in forest cover. These historical shifts in forest transitions reflect our growing appreciation of their utility for countering droughts, floods, land degradation, and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30665904, year = {2019}, author = {Launer, J}, title = {Climate change: beyond denial and grief.}, journal = {Postgraduate medical journal}, volume = {95}, number = {1119}, pages = {59-60}, doi = {10.1136/postgradmedj-2019-136407}, pmid = {30665904}, issn = {1469-0756}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; *Denial (Psychology) ; *Grief ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid30665126, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, CC and Wang, YR and Guo, YL and Wang, YC and Lu, MM}, title = {Short-term prediction of extremely hot days in summer due to climate change and ENSO and related attributable mortality.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {661}, number = {}, pages = {10-17}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.168}, pmid = {30665126}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology/*mortality ; *Climate Change ; *El Nino-Southern Oscillation/adverse effects ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/etiology/*mortality ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Seasons ; Taiwan/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Summer days with extremely hot temperatures in Taiwan have been increasing for the past few decades, and this continuing trend is expected to worsen heat-related mortality. To mitigate the corresponding health impacts, in this study, we developed a statistical state-space model to predict the number of extremely hot days in June-September for the next year. Based on historical data from 1951 to 2017, we estimated the climate change trend after adjusting for the nonlinear lagged effect of the Niño 3.4 index. We then developed a predictive state-space model using these two primary factors and adjusting for residual autocorrelations. Validation results comparing the extremely hot days observed over 2015-2017 with predictions showed that 86% of the average prediction errors were within 4 days of the observations. To assess the health impacts, we applied the model to the projection of heat-attributable mortality (AM) in 2018 by adopting a comparative risk assessment (CRA) approach with the reference period of 2001-2010. The results showed that the Taipei metropolitan area in northern Taiwan is the most affected region with AM of 1501 deaths from all-causes, followed by Taichung in central Taiwan with 490 deaths. The prediction model and the CRA projection provide both a tool and guidance for public health administrators to address the imminent threat posed by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30664698, year = {2019}, author = {Pardo, JD and Small, BJ and Milner, AR and Huttenlocker, AK}, title = {Carboniferous-Permian climate change constrained early land vertebrate radiations.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {200-206}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0776-z}, pmid = {30664698}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {The Carboniferous-Permian transition (CPT) was Earth's last pre-Quaternary icehouse-greenhouse transition, recording major shifts in late Palaeozoic climate regimes and increased continental seasonality over approximately 40 Myr. Its parallels to Quaternary climate change have inspired recent investigations into the impacts of purported rainforest collapse on palaeotropical vertebrate diversity, but little is known about how the protracted spatial dynamics of this transition impacted the emergence of modern tetrapod lineages. Here, we apply ecological ordinance analyses on a dataset of 286 CPT fossil vertebrate localities binned across four physiographic regions forming a palaeoequatorial transect. Our results clarify the spatiotemporal expansion of land-living vertebrates, demonstrating that the reduction of tropical wetlands accommodated emerging dryland-adapted amniote faunas from a western Pangaean epicentre. We call this west-east lag the 'Vaughn-Olson model': CPT climatic transitions were regionally diachronous with delayed proliferation of amniote-dominated dryland assemblages in the east. By combining our ecological analyses with a phylogenetic approach, we demonstrate that this pattern also applies to some co-occurring total-group amphibians, suggesting that there was pervasive selection for such dryland adaptations across the crown tetrapod tree, in contrast with stem tetrapods and 'fishes'.}, }
@article {pmid30662319, year = {2019}, author = {Göpfert, C and Wamsler, C and Lang, W}, title = {A framework for the joint institutionalization of climate change mitigation and adaptation in city administrations.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {1-21}, doi = {10.1007/s11027-018-9789-9}, pmid = {30662319}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Cities are key actors in reducing both the causes of climate change (mitigation) and its impact (adaptation), and many have developed separate mitigation and adaptation strategies and measures. However, in order to maximize outcomes, both scholars and practitioners are increasingly calling for more integrated and synergetic approaches. Unfortunately, related research remains scarce and fragmented, and there is a lack of systematic investigation into the necessary institutional conditions and processes. Against this background, this paper develops a framework to assess and support the joint institutionalization of climate adaptation and mitigation-here called adaptigation-in city administrations. This pioneering framework draws upon four key features of bureaucracies: organizational structure, visions and goals, actors, and technology and tools. Illustrated by pilot applications to the cities of Würzburg (Germany) and Mwanza (Tanzania), the framework provides a robust basis for future research, policy recommendations, and the development of context-specific guidelines for national and local decision-makers and officials. It highlights the importance of (i) clearly defined procedures for the implementation of adaptigation into urban planning processes (e.g., with the active involvement of stakeholders in the form of working groups or roundtable discussions), (ii) locally relevant goals and visions, established in collaboration with stakeholders, and (iii) the creation of mitigation and adaptation structures that are supported by the appropriate level of human resources, both within and outside city administrations. In this context, global, supranational, and national institutions play an important role in supporting institutionalization by providing targeted funding and promoting adaptigation, which requires the development of integrated goals, visions, and legislation.}, }
@article {pmid30660270, year = {2019}, author = {Barreras, H and Kelly, EA and Kumar, N and Solo-Gabriele, HM}, title = {Assessment of local and regional strategies to control bacteria levels at beaches with consideration of impacts from climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {138}, number = {}, pages = {249-259}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.10.046}, pmid = {30660270}, issn = {1879-3363}, support = {P50 ES012736/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Bacteria ; *Bathing Beaches ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Feces/*microbiology ; Florida ; Multivariate Analysis ; Temperature ; *Water Microbiology ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {The objective of this study was to evaluate relationships between local factors (beach geomorphology and management) and regional factors (infrastructure improvements and temperature changes) against levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) at recreational beaches. Data were evaluated for 17 beaches located in Monroe County, Florida (Florida Keys), USA, including an assessment of sanitary infrastructure improvements using equivalent dwelling unit (EDU) connections. Results show that elevated FIB levels were associated with beach geomorphologies characterized by impeded flow and by beaches with lax management policies. The decrease in EDUs not connected coincided with a decrease in the fraction of days when bacteria levels were out of compliance. Multivariate factor analysis also identified beach management practices (presence of homeless and concession stands) as being associated with elevated FIB. Overall, results suggest that communities can utilize beach management strategies and infrastructure improvements to overcome the negative water quality impacts anticipated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30657748, year = {2019}, author = {Rodríguez Mega, E}, title = {Wild coffee species threatened by climate change and deforestation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00150-9}, pmid = {30657748}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30655436, year = {2019}, author = {Jean, K and Wymant, C}, title = {Airborne in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {363}, number = {6424}, pages = {240}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw1145}, pmid = {30655436}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid30652192, year = {2018}, author = {Prior, JH and Connon, IL and McIntyre, E and Adams, J and Capon, A and Kent, J and Rissel, C and Thomas, LE and Thompson, SM and Westcott, H}, title = {Built environment interventions for human and planetary health: integrating health in climate change adaptation and mitigation.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841831}, pmid = {30652192}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {*Built Environment/ethics/organization &amp; administration ; City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Environment Design ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; *Health ; Humans ; *Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Human-generated climate change is causing adverse health effects through multiple direct pathways (e.g. heatwaves, sea-level rise, storm frequency and intensity) and indirect pathways (e.g. food and water insecurity, social instability). Although the health system has a key role to play in addressing these health effects, so too do those professions tasked with the development of the built environment (urban and regional planners, urban designers, landscapers and architects), through improvements to buildings, streets, neighbourhoods, suburbs and cities. This article reports on the ways in which urban planning and design, and architectural interventions, can address the health effects of climate change; and the scope of climate change adaptation and mitigation approaches being implemented by the built environment professions. Type of program or service: Built environment adaptations and mitigations and their connections to the ways in which urban planning, urban design and architectural practices are addressing the health effects of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Our reflections draw on the findings of a recent review of existing health and planning literature. First, we explore the ways in which 'adaptation' and 'mitigation' relate to the notion of human and planetary health. We then outline the broad scope of adaptation and mitigation interventions being envisioned, and in some instances actioned, by built environment professionals.<br><br>RESULTS: Analysis of the review's findings reveals that adaptations developed by built environment professions predominantly focus on protecting human health and wellbeing from the effects of climate change. In contrast, built environment mitigations address climate change by embracing a deeper understanding of the co-benefits inherent in the interconnectedness of human health and wellbeing and the health of the ecosystem on which it depends. In the final section, we highlight the ethical transition that these approaches demand of built environment professions.<br><br>LESSONS LEARNT: Built environment interventions must move beyond simple ecological sustainability to encouraging ways of life that are healthy for both humans and the planet. There are key challenges facing this new approach.}, }
@article {pmid30652188, year = {2018}, author = {Beggs, PJ}, title = {Climate change and allergy in Australia: an innovative, high-income country, at potential risk.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841828}, pmid = {30652188}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology/etiology ; Pollen/adverse effects ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/epidemiology/etiology ; Risk ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: The impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases are important and potentially serious in Australia. Australia is highly vulnerable to such impacts because of its very high prevalence of allergic diseases such as asthma and allergic rhinitis, and allergic sensitisation to environmental allergens such as certain pollens and fungal spores. This article aims to review published research on the impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases from an Australian perspective.<br><br>METHODS: Research on climate change, allergens and allergy was reviewed. Recent global assessments of the topic were consulted, and supplemented with database searches to identify research published since the assessments were done, as well as research with an Australian focus. The databases used were Web of Science and Scopus. Only research published since the year 2000 was included.<br><br>RESULTS: The impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases are many and varied. Impacts on pollen include effects on pollen production and atmospheric pollen concentration, pollen seasonality, pollen allergenicity, and the dispersion and spatial distribution of pollen. Similarly, there is evidence for effects on fungal spore production, seasonality and allergenicity. There are also likely effects on indoor moisture and mould growth. Beyond these respiratory allergens, climate change may also affect food allergens, stinging insect allergens and contact allergens. All these changes could affect allergic diseases, in particular allergic respiratory diseases such as allergic asthma and allergic rhinitis.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A large and sophisticated body of research exists from which to gauge both current and potential future impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases. However, most, if not all, of this is from outside Australia. Australian-focused research is therefore urgently needed. Australia's vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change on allergic diseases is compounded by the precarious nature of aeroallergen monitoring, reporting and forecasting in this country. But Australia has an impressive wealth of relevant experience and expertise, and has the potential to address the challenge of both current and future impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases.}, }
@article {pmid30652186, year = {2018}, author = {Boylan, S and Beyer, K and Schlosberg, D and Mortimer, A and Hime, N and Scalley, B and Alders, R and Corvalan, C and Capon, A}, title = {A conceptual framework for climate change, health and wellbeing in NSW, Australia.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841826}, pmid = {30652186}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; New South Wales ; Public Health ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Changes in natural hazards related to climate change are evident in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, and are projected to become more frequent and intense. The impacts of climate change may adversely affect health and wellbeing, directly via extreme weather events such as heatwaves, storms and floods, and indirectly via impacts on food security, air and water quality, and other environmental amenities. The NSW Government's Climate Change Policy Framework recognises the need to reduce the effects of climate change on health and wellbeing. A conceptual framework can support the aims and objectives of the policy framework by depicting the effects of climate change on health, and individual and social wellbeing, and areas for policy actions and responses. A proposed conceptual framework has been developed, modelled on the Driving force, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect and Action (DPSEEA) framework of the World Health Organization - a framework which shows the link between exposures and health effects as well as entry points for interventions. The proposed framework presented in this paper was developed in consultation with researchers and policy makers. The framework is guiding current research examining vulnerabilities to climate change and the effects of a range of exposures on health and wellbeing.}, }
@article {pmid30652185, year = {2018}, author = {Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S and Pitman, A}, title = {Extreme events in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841825}, pmid = {30652185}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms ; Droughts ; Extreme Heat ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Natural Disasters/economics ; Rainforest ; }, abstract = {By definition, extreme events are rare. Socio-economic and human systems have not experienced adverse extreme events frequently enough to develop resilience, whether this be physical, economical or structural. Humans are vulnerable to extreme events because of our physiology and because we build thresholds into our socio-economic and human health systems. When these thresholds are exceeded the consequences can be devastating. This perspective will discuss changes in heat, drought and heavy rainfall extremes in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30652184, year = {2018}, author = {Hime, N and Vyas, A and Lachireddy, K and Wyett, S and Scalley, B and Corvalan, C}, title = {Climate change, health and wellbeing: challenges and opportunities in NSW, Australia.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841824}, pmid = {30652184}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; *Health ; Health Promotion ; Humans ; New South Wales ; }, abstract = {The NSW (New South Wales) Climate Change Policy Framework, launched by the NSW Government in 2016, recognises that climate change presents risks to health and wellbeing. Risks to health and wellbeing come from direct impacts of extreme weather events, and from indirect impacts through effects on air, water, food and ecosystems. Responding to these challenges offers an opportunity to protect and promote health by enhancing environmental amenities, and building adaptive capacity and resilience in populations and systems. To develop policy that effectively protects and promotes health in the face of climate change in NSW it is necessary to define the expected impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing in NSW.}, }
@article {pmid30652183, year = {2018}, author = {Capon, A and Corvalan, C}, title = {Climate change and health: global issue, local responses.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841823}, pmid = {30652183}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid30650319, year = {2019}, author = {Solomon, CG and LaRocque, RC}, title = {Climate Change - A Health Emergency.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {380}, number = {3}, pages = {209-211}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp1817067}, pmid = {30650319}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Behavior ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; *Public Health ; Public Opinion ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid30650240, year = {2019}, author = {Moat, J and Gole, TW and Davis, AP}, title = {Least concern to endangered: Applying climate change projections profoundly influences the extinction risk assessment for wild Arabica coffee.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {390-403}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14341}, pmid = {30650240}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Coffea/*physiology ; *Endangered Species ; *Extinction, Biological ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Dispersal ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. Published studies show that climate change is projected to have a substantial negative influence on the current suitable growing areas for indigenous Arabica in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Here we use all available future projections for the species based on multiple general circulation models (GCMs), emission scenarios, and migration scenarios, to predict changes in Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), and population numbers for wild Arabica coffee. Under climate change our results show that population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. EOO and AOO are projected to decline by around 30% in many cases. Furthermore, present-day models compared to the near future (2038), show a reduction for EOO of over 40% (with a few cases over 50%), although EOO should be treated with caution due to its sensitivity to outlying occurrences. When applying these metrics to extinction risk, we show that the determination of generation length is critical. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (not threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteria.}, }
@article {pmid30649928, year = {2019}, author = {Silverman, GS}, title = {Systematic Lack of Educational Preparation in Addressing Climate Change as a Major Public Health Challenge.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {109}, number = {2}, pages = {242-243}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2018.304818}, pmid = {30649928}, issn = {1541-0048}, }
@article {pmid30649565, year = {2019}, author = {Arco Molina, JG and Helle, G and Hadad, MA and Roig, FA}, title = {Variations in the intrinsic water-use efficiency of north Patagonian forests under a present climate change scenario: tree age, site conditions and long-term environmental effects.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpy144}, pmid = {30649565}, issn = {1758-4469}, abstract = {The carbon isotope composition (δ13C) in tree rings were used to derive the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of Araucaria araucana trees of northern Patagonia along a strong precipitation gradient. It is well known that climatic and ontogenetic factors affect growth performance of this species but little is known about their influence in the physiological responses, as iWUE. Thus, the main objective of this study was to assess the physiological reactions of young and adult trees from two open xeric and two moderately dense mesic A. araucana forests to the increases in atmospheric CO2 (Ca) and air temperature during the 20th century, and to relate these responses with radial tree growth. The results indicated that the iWUE and the intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) increased 33% and 32% in average during the last century, respectively, but carbon isotope discrimination (∆13C) was more variable between sites and age classes. Trees from xeric sites presented greater iWUE and lower ∆13C and Ci values than those from mesic sites. In general, iWUE was strongly related with Ca and was significantly affected by mean summer maximum temperature. ∆13C from mesic sites seemed to be mainly affected by summer maximum temperature, while trees from xeric conditions did not show any influence. Tree age also presented a significant effect on iWUE. Adult trees showed higher iWUE values than young trees, indicating an incidence of the tree age and/or height, mainly in closed mesic forests. Moreover, some trees presented positive relationships between iWUE and radial tree growth, while others presented negative or no relationships, indicating that other factors may negatively influence tree growth. Broadly, the results demonstrate the incidence of climatic, environmental and ontogenetic variability in the tree responses; however, more studies are needed to better understand which forests will be more affected by actual and future climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid30648210, year = {2019}, author = {Heshmati, I and Khorasani, N and Shams-Esfandabad, B and Riazi, B}, title = {Forthcoming risk of Prosopis juliflora global invasion triggered by climate change: implications for environmental monitoring and risk assessment.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {2}, pages = {72}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-018-7154-9}, pmid = {30648210}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Middle East ; Prosopis/*physiology ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Climate is a determinant factor in species distribution and climate change will affect the species abilities to occupy geographic regions. Prosopis juliflora is one of the most problematic invasive species and its biological invasion causes various negative effects in tropical, arid, and semi-arid regions of the world. As eradication efforts subsequent to the establishment of an alien invasive species are costly and time-consuming, assessing patterns of the introduction of an invasive species to new regions is among the most cost-effective means of monitoring and management of natural ecosystems. In this study by using the concept of species distribution modeling (SDM) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method, the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of P. juliflora has been assessed at a global scale. Bioclimatic variables in current condition and 2050 regarding two global circulation models (GCM) and two climate change scenarios were considered as explanatory variables. Our results showed that annual mean temperature (BIO1), annual precipitation (BIO12), and temperature mean diurnal range (BIO2) represented more than 87% of the variations in the model, and with an AUC of 0.854 and TSS of 0.51, the model showed a good predictive performance. Our results indicate that on a global scale, suitable ranges for P. juliflora increase across all the GCM and RCP scenarios. In a global scale, Mediterranean Basin, Middle East, and North America are regions with the highest risk of range expansion in the future. Regarding the negative impacts of P. juliflora on structure and function of natural habitats in the invaded areas, findings of this study could be considered as a warning appliance for the environmental monitoring of the regions highly sensitive to the global invasion of the species. We suggest that assessing impacts of climate change on the global distribution of the invasive species could be used as an efficient tool to implement broad-scale and priority-setting monitoring programs in natural ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30647435, year = {2019}, author = {Fadrique, B and Báez, S and Duque, Á and Malizia, A and Blundo, C and Carilla, J and Osinaga-Acosta, O and Malizia, L and Silman, M and Farfán-Ríos, W and Malhi, Y and Young, KR and Francisco, CC and Homeier, J and Peralvo, M and Pinto, E and Jadan, O and Aguirre, N and Aguirre, Z and Feeley, KJ}, title = {Author Correction: Widespread but heterogeneous responses of Andean forests to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {565}, number = {7741}, pages = {E10}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0862-z}, pmid = {30647435}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {In Fig. 2 of this Article, the positive part of the y axis scale should read 0, 0.02, 0.04 instead of 0, 0.04, 0.02. This has been corrected online.}, }
@article {pmid30644447, year = {2019}, author = {Popkin, G}, title = {How much can forests fight climate change?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {565}, number = {7739}, pages = {280-282}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00122-z}, pmid = {30644447}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30642975, year = {2019}, author = {Bruine de Bruin, W and Morgan, MG}, title = {Reflections on an interdisciplinary collaboration to inform public understanding of climate change, mitigation, and impacts.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1803726115}, pmid = {30642975}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {We describe two interdisciplinary projects in which natural scientists and engineers, as well as psychologists and other behavioral scientists, worked together to better communicate about climate change, including mitigation and impacts. One project focused on understanding and informing public perceptions of an emerging technology to capture and sequester carbon dioxide from coal-fired power plants, as well as other low-carbon electricity-generation technologies. A second project focused on public understanding about carbon dioxide's residence time in the atmosphere. In both projects, we applied the mental-models approach, which aims to design effective communications by using insights from interdisciplinary teams of experts and mental models elicited from intended audience members. In addition to summarizing our findings, we discuss the process of interdisciplinary collaboration that we pursued in framing and completing both projects. We conclude by describing what we think we have learned about the conditions that supported our ongoing interdisciplinary collaborations.}, }
@article {pmid30641382, year = {2019}, author = {Rolo, V and Moreno, G}, title = {Shrub encroachment and climate change increase the exposure to drought of Mediterranean wood-pastures.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {550-558}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.029}, pmid = {30641382}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Forests ; Grassland ; Models, Theoretical ; Soil/chemistry ; Spain ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Pastures and wood-pastures, livestock grazing systems where scattered trees and shrubs co-occur, are essential for global food supply. The grazing value of these systems, which is closely related to soil moisture, is increasingly threatened by changes in climate variability and vegetation structure, mainly by shrub encroachment. However, it remains relatively unexplored to what extent the concurrent effect of climate change and shrub encroachment will affect the exposure to drought stress of Mediterranean wood-pastures - defined as a period where soil water availability drops below 40%. Here we combined soil moisture measurements and a process-based water balance model to assess the effect of shrubs, a shallow- and a deep-rooted, on soil moisture under current (2009-2012) and future weather (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Soil moisture was measured and predicted in six sites, three for each type of shrub, where two adjacent plots were selected, a control and an encroached plot. During 2009-2012, encroached plots had more extended droughts (29 and 48 days longer in sites encroached with shallow- and deep-rooted shrubs, respectively) and higher usage of deep water (~30%) than control plots. Under future climatic projections, our results show a consistent increase in the duration, an earlier onset of drought and higher reliance on shallow water with time, particularly under the worst climatic scenario. Encroached plots showed higher inter-annual variability than control plots, particularly in plots encroached with the deep-rooted shrub. Our results indicate that the presence of shrubs magnify the effect of climate. This suggests a likely increase in the exposure of Mediterranean wood-pastures to drought if processes of shrub encroachment persist in a context of climatic changes where earlier and more prolonged droughts will become more frequent.}, }
@article {pmid30640092, year = {2019}, author = {Zheng, K and Wei, JZ and Pei, JY and Cheng, H and Zhang, XL and Huang, FQ and Li, FM and Ye, JS}, title = {Impacts of climate change and human activities on grassland vegetation variation in the Chinese Loess Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {236-244}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.022}, pmid = {30640092}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Grassland ; *Human Activities ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {China initiated the &quot;Grain for Green Project&quot; in 1999 to mitigate soil erosion. The vegetation cover of the Chinese Loess Plateau, one of the most erosive regions in the world, has been greatly increased. However, studies on quantitatively investigating the climate change and human activities on vegetation coverage change were rare. In this study, spatio-temporal changes in vegetation coverage were investigated using MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data over 2000-2016. And a new method was introduced using Net Primary Productivity (NPP) model and relationship between NPP and NDVI to quantitatively and spatially distinguish the NDVI affected by climate change and human activities. Results showed that mean NDVI value over 2009-2016 were 14.46% greater than that over 2000-2007. In order to quantify the contribution of climate change and human activities to vegetation change, an NPP model suitable for the grassland of the Chinese Loess Plateau was identified using biomass observations from field survey and literature. The NDVI affected by climate change (NDVIclimate) was estimated by the NPP model and the relationship between NPP and NDVI. And the NDVI affected by human activities (NDVIhuman) was calculated by actual NDVI minus NDVIclimate. Comparison of the two stages showed that human activities and climate change contributed 42.35% and 57.65% respectively to the ΔNDVI on grassland in the Loess Plateau. After analysis of numerous NDVIhuman related factors, the slopes restored by the &quot;Grain for Green Project&quot; was considered the main influence factor of human activities.}, }
@article {pmid30640086, year = {2019}, author = {Li, G and Sun, S and Han, J and Yan, J and Liu, W and Wei, Y and Lu, N and Sun, Y}, title = {Impacts of Chinese Grain for Green program and climate change on vegetation in the Loess Plateau during 1982-2015.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {177-187}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.028}, pmid = {30640086}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Biota ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Grassland ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Remote sensing based vegetation index provides a practical method for the monitoring of vegetation dynamics at regional and global scales. Here, using a long-term remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset, we quantified the vegetation changes in the Loess Plateau (LP) over the last three decades (1982-2015), which includes the period before the Chinese&quot;Grain for Green Program&quot;(GGP) was launched (1982-1999), and the period after the GGP (1999-2015). The correlations between the NDVI and four climate related variables, i.e., precipitation, temperature, root-soil moisture (RSM), and a drought proxy-standardized evapotranspiration deficit index (SEDI), were also examined. The results indicated that, (i) the GGP strongly changed the vegetation in the LP. The growing-season mean NDVI (GSM-NDVI) and the annual mean NDVI (AM-NDVI) decreased slightly before the GGP launched in 1999, with slopes of -3.38×10-3 and-8.00×10-4year-1, respectively. However, they showed slight and significant (p<0.05) increases after the GGP, with slopes of 4.75×10-3 and 2.32×10-3year-1, respectively. (ii) Climate change (i.e., warming and drying) resulted in adverse effects on vegetation in the LP during the period before the GGP. However, the observed changes (i.e., wetting and reduced drought) exerted positive effects on the vegetation during the period after the GGP. (iii) Inter-annual variations of spatially averaged NDVI over the LP were primarily determined by RSM rather than any other climate related variables. In the southeastern LP, the inter-annual variation of GSM-NDVI was mainly determined by precipitation and SEDI, while the inter-annual variation of AM-NDVI was mainly caused by SEDI and RSM. Inter-annual variations of both GSM-NDVI and AM-NDVI were mainly determined by SEDI and RSM in the northwestern LP, and by temperature in the southwestern LP.}, }
@article {pmid30639109, year = {2019}, author = {Samplonius, JM and Both, C}, title = {Climate Change May Affect Fatal Competition between Two Bird Species.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {327-331.e2}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2018.11.063}, pmid = {30639109}, issn = {1879-0445}, abstract = {Climate warming has altered phenologies of many taxa [1, 2], but the extent differs vastly between [3, 4] and within trophic levels [5-7]. Differential adjustment to climate warming within trophic levels may affect coexistence of competing species, because relative phenologies alter facilitative and competitive outcomes [8, 9], but evidence for this is scant [10, 11]. Here, we report on two mechanisms through which climate change may affect fatal interactions between two sympatric passerines, the resident great tit Parus major and the migratory pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, competing for nest sites. Spring temperature more strongly affected breeding phenology of tits than flycatchers, and tits killed more flycatchers when flycatcher arrival coincided with peak laying in the tits. Ongoing climate change may diminish this fatal competition if great tit and flycatcher phenologies diverge. However, great tit density increased after warm winters, and flycatcher mortality was elevated when tit densities were higher. Consequently, flycatcher males in synchronous and high-tit-density years suffered mortality by great tits of up to 8.9%. Interestingly, we found no population consequences of fatal competition, suggesting that mortality predominantly happened among surplus males. Indeed, late-arriving males are less likely to find a partner [12], and here we show that such late arrivers are more likely to die from competition with great tits. We conclude that our breeding population is buffered against detrimental effects of competition. Nevertheless, we expect that if buffers are diminished, population consequences of interspecific competition may become apparent, especially after warm winters that are benign to resident species. VIDEO ABSTRACT.}, }
@article {pmid30637722, year = {2019}, author = {Verheyen, J and Stoks, R}, title = {Temperature variation makes an ectotherm more sensitive to global warming unless thermal evolution occurs.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {88}, number = {4}, pages = {624-636}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12946}, pmid = {30637722}, issn = {1365-2656}, abstract = {To assess long-term impacts of global warming on species, there is growing interest in latitudinal intraspecific patterns in thermal adaptation. Yet, while both mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations (DTFs) are expected to increase under global warming, latitudinal differences in the effects of DTFs have not been documented. We tested whether low-latitude populations of an ectotherm deal better with greater DTF than high-latitude populations, especially at a high mean temperature close to the optimal temperature for growth where DTF causes exposure to extreme high temperatures. We evaluated the impact of DTFs when assessing the effect of gradual thermal evolution at the high latitude with a space-for-time substitution. We compared effects of both mean temperatures (20 and 24°C) and DTFs (constant = 0°C, low = 5°C and high = 10°C) on growth rates between low-latitude and high-latitude populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans in a common-garden experiment. DTFs, if anything, reduced growth and were generally stressful as indicated by reductions in body condition, antioxidant defence and metabolic rate, and increases in oxidative damage. Most negative effects of DTFs were only present at a mean of 24°C when too high temperatures were reached during a daily cycle. Notably, while 4°C warming was beneficial in terms of growth rate at both latitudes at a constant temperature regime, this changed in a negative effect at high DTF. Moreover, this modulating effect of the mean temperature by DTF differed between latitudes indicating local thermal adaptation. While 4°C warming at low DTF still caused faster growth in low-latitude larvae, it already slowed growth in high-latitude larvae. This supports the emerging insight that warming would increase growth in high-latitude larvae in the absence of DTF, yet would decrease growth in the more realistic scenarios with DTF. In contrast, a space-for-time substitution approach suggested that under gradual thermal evolution, the evolved high-latitude larvae would no longer suffer a growth reduction in the presence of DTF. Our study provided important proof-of-principle that jointly integrating gradual thermal evolution and the expected increase in DTF generates opposing predictions of effects of global warming on this ectotherm.}, }
@article {pmid30636278, year = {2019}, author = {Davies, WJ}, title = {Multiple temperature effects on phenology and body size in wild butterflies predict a complex response to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {100}, number = {4}, pages = {e02612}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2612}, pmid = {30636278}, issn = {1939-9170}, abstract = {Temperature-induced alterations in phenology and body size are the cumulative outcome of sequential effects impacting development and are universal responses to climate change. Most studies have so far focused on phenological responses to warming in multiple taxa across space and time, or the ontogenetic effects of temperature in the laboratory. I here complement this work by investigating shifts in phenology and body size (wing length) attributable to temperature changes operating over the entire lifespan of the univoltine orange-tip butterfly Anthocharis cardamines in a single wild population over 14 generations. Phenology was affected by temperatures during three discrete periods in the year prior to emergence, corresponding to late larval/early pupal life, the onset of the chilling period required to break pupal diapause, and postdiapause pupal development prior to eclosion. Higher temperatures during late larval/early pupal life and postdiapause pupal development advanced the subsequent emergence of the butterflies, whereas higher temperatures at the onset of the chilling period retarded it. The synchronization of the butterflies' emergence schedule increased when pupae were exposed to milder midwinter temperatures. Wing length increased with warmer temperatures at distinct points in the early and midpupal periods; such direct effects of temperature on body size could complement season length effects in explaining the reversal of the temperature-size rule in univoltine insects. The periods during which temperature affected the phenology of the butterfly only partially overlapped those affecting the first flowering date of its host plants lady's smock (Cardamine pratensis) and garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata). Observed thermal effects on flowering time, emergence timing, and emergence synchronization indicate that phenological convergence as well as phenological mismatching could affect host-plant availability and diet breadth; thermal effects on body size imply that important population-level processes could be impacted through correlated changes in fecundity and dispersal rate. In general, the combined effects of phenological and ontogenetic responses to temperature changes across the whole lifespan will likely be important in modeling the demographic responses of interacting species to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30635682, year = {2019}, author = {Xu, Y and Bosch, DJ and Wagena, MB and Collick, AS and Easton, ZM}, title = {Meeting Water Quality Goals by Spatial Targeting of Best Management Practices under Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {63}, number = {2}, pages = {173-184}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-018-01133-8}, pmid = {30635682}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {CBET-1360280//National Science Foundation/ ; VA-135911//National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; }, abstract = {Agricultural production is a major source of nonpoint source pollution contributing 44% of total nitrogen (N) discharged to the Chesapeake Bay. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) established the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program to control this problem. For the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the TMDL program requires that nitrogen loadings be reduced by 25% by 2025. Climate change may affect the cost of achieving such reductions. Thus, it is necessary to develop cost-effective strategies to meet water quality goals under climate change. We investigate landscape targeting of best management practices (BMPs) based on topographic index (TI) to determine how targeting would affect costs of meeting N loading goals for Mahantango watershed, PA. We use the results from two climate models, CRCM and WRFG, and the mean of the ensemble of seven climate models (Ensemble Mean) to estimate expected climate changes and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area (SWAT-VSA) model to predict crop yields and N export. Costs of targeting and uniform placement of BMPs across the entire study area (423 ha) were compared under historical and future climate scenarios. Targeting BMP placement based on TI classes reduces costs for achieving water quality goals relative to uniform placement strategies under historical and future conditions. Compared with uniform placement, targeting methods reduce costs by 30, 34, and 27% under historical climate as estimated by the Ensemble Mean, CRCM and WRFG, respectively, and by 37, 43, and 33% under the corresponding estimates of future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30635138, year = {2019}, author = {Walsh, BS and Parratt, SR and Hoffmann, AA and Atkinson, D and Snook, RR and Bretman, A and Price, TAR}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {34}, number = {3}, pages = {249-259}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2018.12.002}, pmid = {30635138}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {Rising global temperatures are threatening biodiversity. Studies on the impact of temperature on natural populations usually use lethal or viability thresholds, termed the 'critical thermal limit' (CTL). However, this overlooks important sublethal impacts of temperature that could affect species' persistence. Here we discuss a critical but overlooked trait: fertility, which can deteriorate at temperatures less severe than an organism's lethal limit. We argue that studies examining the ecological and evolutionary impacts of climate change should consider the 'thermal fertility limit' (TFL) of species; we propose that a framework for the design of TFL studies across taxa be developed. Given the importance of fertility for population persistence, understanding how climate change affects TFLs is vital for the assessment of future biodiversity impacts.}, }
@article {pmid30634954, year = {2019}, author = {Shezi, B and Mathee, A and Siziba, W and Street, RA and Naicker, N and Kunene, Z and Wright, CY}, title = {Environmental health practitioners potentially play a key role in helping communities adapt to climate change.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {54}, doi = {10.1186/s12889-018-6378-5}, pmid = {30634954}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Academies and Institutes ; Adult ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; Budgets ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Demography ; *Environmental Health ; Female ; Health Personnel/education ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Policy ; *Population Health ; Poverty ; Residence Characteristics ; South Africa ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Vulnerable population groups in South Africa, especially those living in poverty, young children, women, the elderly and people with pre-existing diseases, are susceptible to new or exacerbated health threats resulting from climate change. Environmental Health Practitioners (EHPs) can play an important role in helping communities adapt to climate change health impacts, however, effective coordination of this requires further understanding of their roles in implementing climate change-related adaptation actions in communities.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional survey using convenience sampling was undertaken at the January 2017 conference for EHPs hosted by the South African Institute of Environmental Health in Cape Town. All EHPs who attended the conference were invited to complete a study questionnaire that requested information on participant demographics, as well as climate change related-knowledge, practices and perceptions.<br><br>RESULTS: Majority of participating EHPs (n = 48; 72.8%) had received formal or informal training on climate change and health. Thirty-nine percent of EHPs indicated that they had a climate change and health-related committee / working group in their department, a policy or strategy (41.0%) and budget allocated for climate change and health-related work (51.5%). A total of 33.3% had participated in climate change-related projects. Majority (62.2%) of EHPs believed that they should play a supportive role in addressing climate change while 37.8% believed that EHPs should play a leading role.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Recognising the need for raising awareness about climate change adaptation as well as implementing appropriate interventions to combat climate-related ill health effects, especially among vulnerable groups, EHPs are well-placed to adopt significant roles in helping communities to adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30632035, year = {2019}, author = {Ullah, A and Ahmad, I and Ahmad, A and Khaliq, T and Saeed, U and M Habib-Ur-Rahman,  and Hussain, J and Ullah, S and Hoogenboom, G}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on pearl millet under arid and semi-arid environments using CSM-CERES-Millet model.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {6745-6757}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-3925-7}, pmid = {30632035}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Climate change adversely affects food security all over the world, especially in developing countries where the increasing population is confronting food insecurity and malnutrition. Crop models can assist stakeholders for assessment of climate change in current and future agricultural production systems. The aim of this study was to use of system analysis approach through CSM-CERES-Millet model to quantify climate change and its impact on pearl millet under arid and semi-arid climatic conditions of Punjab, Pakistan. Calibration and evaluation of CERES-Millet were performed with the field observations for pearl millet hybrid 86M86. Mid-century (2040-2069) climate change scenarios for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were generated based on an ensemble of selected five general circulation models (GCMs). The model was calibrated with optimum treatment (15-cm plant spacing and 200 kg N ha-1) using field observations on phenology, growth and grain yield. Thereafter, pearl millet cultivar was evaluated with remaining treatments of plant spacing and nitrogen during 2015 and 2016 in Faisalabad and Layyah. The CERES-Millet model was calibrated very well and predicted the grain yield with 1.14% error. Model valuation results showed that there was a close agreement between the observed and simulated values of grain yield with RMSE ranging from 172 to 193 kg ha-1. The results of future climate scenarios revealed that there would be an increase in Tmin (2.8 °C and 2.9 °C, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment) and Tmax (2.5 °C and 2.7 °C, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment) under RCP4.5. For RCP8.5, there would be an increase of 4 °C in Tmin for the semi-arid and arid environment and an increase of 3.7 °C and 3.9 °C in Tmax, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment. The impacts of climate changes showed that pearl millet yield would be reduced by 7 to 10% under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in Faisalabad and 10 to 13% in Layyah under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for mid-century. So, CSM-CERES-Millet is a useful tool in assessing the climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid30631162, year = {2019}, author = {Searchinger, TD and Wirsenius, S and Beringer, T and Dumas, P}, title = {Publisher Correction: Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {565}, number = {7740}, pages = {E9}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0863-y}, pmid = {30631162}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {In this Letter, the PANGAEA repository was referred to incorrectly in the 'Code availability' and 'Data availability' sections of Methods: the link should be https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.893761 instead of https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.877266 . In addition, the sentence, &quot;However, the more commonly used system 2 (75 kg ha-1 yr-1) generates roughly the same benefits as system 1…&quot; should read, &quot;However, the more commonly used system 2 (75 kg ha-1 yr-1) generates roughly the same benefits as sugarcane ethanol…&quot; These errors have been corrected in the online versions of the Letter.}, }
@article {pmid30630932, year = {2019}, author = {Lézine, AM and Izumi, K and Kageyama, M and Achoundong, G}, title = {A 90,000-year record of Afromontane forest responses to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {363}, number = {6423}, pages = {177-181}, doi = {10.1126/science.aav6821}, pmid = {30630932}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Pollen records from African highlands are scarce; hence, the paleoecology of the Afromontane forest and its responses to glacial cycles are poorly known. Lake Bambili (Cameroon) provides a record of vegetation changes in the tropical mountains of Africa over the past 90,000 years, with high temporal resolution. Pollen data and biome reconstructions show a diverging response of forests to climate changes; the upper tree line was extremely unstable, shifting substantially in response to glacial-interglacial climate alternation, whereas the transition between the montane and lowland forests remained remarkably stable. Such ecological instability may have had a critical influence on species richness in the Afromontane forests.}, }
@article {pmid30629690, year = {2019}, author = {Blennow, K and Persson, E and Persson, J}, title = {Are values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place the values most vulnerable to climate change?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e0210426}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0210426}, pmid = {30629690}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place have sometimes been downplayed in the climate change discourse. However, they have been suggested to be not only important to citizens but the values most vulnerable to climate change. Here we test four empirical consequences of the suggestion: (i) at least 50% of the locations citizens' consider to be the most important locations in their municipality are chosen because they represent these values, (ii) locations representing these values have a high probability of being damaged by climate change induced sea level rise, (iii) citizens for which these values are particularly strongly held less strongly believe in the local effects of climate change, and (iv) citizens for which these values are particularly strongly held less strongly believe that they have experienced the effects of climate change. The tests were made using survey data collected in 2014 from 326 citizens owning property in Höganäs municipality, Sweden, and included values elicited using a new methodology separating instrumental values from end values, and using the former (which strictly speaking should be seen as estimates of usefulness rather than as aims in themselves) as stepping stones to pinpoint the latter, that represent the true interests of the respondents. The results provide the first evidence that, albeit frequent, values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place are not the values most vulnerable to climate change. This in turn indicates a need to further investigate the vulnerability of these values to climate change, using a methodology that clearly distinguishes between instrumental and end values.}, }
@article {pmid30627998, year = {2019}, author = {Gul, F and Jan, D and Ashfaq, M}, title = {Assessing the socio-economic impact of climate change on wheat production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {6576-6585}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-04109-7}, pmid = {30627998}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {This study involves the climate change impact assessment of wheat producers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. An extensive farm survey of 150 farms was designed. From study area, three districts, namely, Chitral, D.I. Khan, and Peshawar, were selected through multistage sampling process. Yield simulation from Crop model DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro Technology Transfer) was used for socio-economic impact assessment. Future climate scenarios were generated by selecting five GCMs from latest CMIP5 family with two RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, at two carbon concentrations of 499 ppm and 571 ppm, respectively. Yield simulations were analyzed for each GCM. Results of crop model revealed that wheat yield will increase in district Chitral, while in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, yields would be reduced due to climate change. For socio-economic impact assessment, TOA-MD (Trade-Off Analysis for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment) version 6 was used. Climate change impacts on poverty, net farm returns, and per capita income were calculated for different scenarios. The analysis was carried out on per-farm basis. The economic model results revealed that climate change has negative impact on wheat producers in D.I. Khan and Peshawar while making wheat producers better off in Chitral. The number of losers ranged from 54 to 66.21% and 50 to 61.99% in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, respectively. Losers are the farmers who would be economically worse off under perturbed climate. With current climate, the observed poverty rate would be 34 to 49 in D.I. Khan while 21.26 to 34.03 in Peshawar. The study recommended need for adaptation strategies to overcome the vulnerabilities of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30625666, year = {2019}, author = {Zhao, CS and Yang, Y and Yang, ST and Xiang, H and Zhang, Y and Wang, ZY and Chen, X and Mitrovic, SM}, title = {Predicting future river health in a minimally influenced mountainous area under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {656}, number = {}, pages = {1373-1385}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.430}, pmid = {30625666}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {It has been shown that climate change impacts the overall health of a river's ecosystem. Although predicting river health under climate change would be useful for stakeholders to adapt to the change and better conserve river health, little research on this topic exists. This paper presents a methodology predicting river health under different climate change scenarios. First, a multi-source, distributed, time-variant gain hydrological model (MS-DTVGM) was used to predict the runoff from a mountainous river in eastern China using the data from three existing IPCC5 climate change models (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.4). Next, a model was developed to predict the river's water quality under these scenarios. Finally, a multidimensional response model utilizing hydrology, water quality, and biology was used to predict the river's biological status and ascertain the impact of climate change on its overall health. The river is in a mountainous area near Jinan City, one of China's first &quot;pilot&quot; cities recognized as a &quot;healthy water ecological community.&quot; Our results predict that the overall health of the Yufu River, which is minimally influenced by human activities, will improve by 2030 due to the increased river flow due to an increase in rainfall frequency and subsequent peak runoff. However, the total nitrogen concentration is predicted to increase, which is a potential eutrophication risk. Therefore, effective control of nitrogen pollutants entering the river will be necessary. The increase in flow velocity (the annual average increase is ~0.5 m/s) is favorable for fish reproduction. Our methods and results will provide scientific guidance for policy makers and river managers and will help people to better understand how global climate change impacts river health.}, }
@article {pmid30621785, year = {2019}, author = {Hertig, E}, title = {Distribution of Anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {18}, doi = {10.1186/s13071-018-3278-6}, pmid = {30621785}, issn = {1756-3305}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Anopheles/parasitology/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Mediterranean Region/epidemiology ; Mosquito Vectors/parasitology/*physiology ; Regression Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In the scope of climate change the possible recurrence and/or expansion of vector-borne diseases poses a major concern. The occurrence of vector competent Anopheles species as well as favorable climatic conditions may lead to the re-emergence of autochthonous malaria in Europe and the Mediterranean area. However, high-resolution assessments of possible changes of Anopheles vector distributions and of potential malaria transmission stability in the European-Mediterranean area under changing climatic conditions during the course of the 21st century are not available yet.<br><br>METHODS: Boosted Regression Trees are applied to relate climate variables and land cover classes to vector occurrences. Changes in future vector distributions and potential malaria transmission stability due to climate change are assessed using state-of-the art regional climate model simulations.<br><br>RESULTS: Distinct changes in the distributions of the dominant vectors of human malaria are to be expected under climate change. In general, temperature and precipitation changes will lead to a northward spread of the occurrences of Anopheles vectors. Yet, for some Mediterranean areas, occurrence probabilities may decline.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Potential malaria transmission stability is increased in areas where the climatic changes favor vector occurrences as well as significantly impact the vectorial capacity. As a result, vector stability shows the highest increases between historical and future periods for the southern and south-eastern European areas. Anopheles atroparvus, the dominant vector in large parts of Europe, might play an important role with respect to changes of the potential transmission stability.}, }
@article {pmid30620924, year = {2019}, author = {Wu, C and Chen, Y and Peng, C and Li, Z and Hong, X}, title = {Modeling and estimating aboveground biomass of Dacrydium pierrei in China using machine learning with climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {234}, number = {}, pages = {167-179}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.12.090}, pmid = {30620924}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Accurate estimations of the aboveground biomass (AGB) of rare and endangered species are particularly important for protecting forest ecosystems and endangered species and for providing useful information to analyze the influence of past and future climate change on forest AGB. We investigated the feasibility of using three developed and two widely used models, including a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), a group method of data handling (GMDH), an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), an artificial neural network (ANN) and a support vector machine (SVM), to estimate the AGB of Dacrydium pierrei (D. pierrei) in natural forests of China. The results showed that these models could explain the changes in the AGB of the D. pierrei using a limited amount of meteorological data. The GRNN and ANN models are superior to the other models for estimating the AGB of D. pierrei. The GMDH model consistently produced comparatively poor estimates of the AGB. Three climate scenarios, including the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, were compared with the climate situation of 2013-2017. Under these scenarios, the AGB of D. pierrei females with the same diameter at breast height (DBH) would increase by 13.0 ± 31.4% (mean ± standard deviation), 16.6 ± 30.7%, and 18.5 ± 30.9% during 2041-2060 and 15.6 ± 32.1%, 21.2 ± 33.2%, and 24.8 ± 32.7% during 2061-2080; the AGB of males would increase by 16.3 ± 32.3%, 21.7 ± 32.5%, and 22.9 ± 32.6% during 2041-2060 and 22.3 ± 30.8%, 27.2 ± 31.8%, and 30.1 ± 34.4% during 2061-2080. The R2 values of all models range from 0.82 to 0.95. In conclusion, this study suggests that these advanced models are recommended to estimate the AGB of forests, and the AGB of forests would increase in 2041-2080 under future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30619552, year = {2018}, author = {Buckley, LB and Khaliq, I and Swanson, DL and Hof, C}, title = {Does metabolism constrain bird and mammal ranges and predict shifts in response to climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {24}, pages = {12375-12385}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4537}, pmid = {30619552}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Mechanistic approaches for predicting the ranges of endotherms are needed to forecast their responses to environmental change. We test whether physiological constraints on maximum metabolic rate and the factor by which endotherms can elevate their metabolism (metabolic expansibility) influence cold range limits for mammal and bird species. We examine metabolic expansibility at the cold range boundary (MECRB) and whether species' traits can predict variability in MECRB and then use MECRB as an initial approach to project range shifts for 210 mammal and 61 bird species. We find evidence for metabolic constraints: the distributions of metabolic expansibility at the cold range boundary peak at similar values for birds (2.7) and mammals (3.2). The right skewed distributions suggest some species have adapted to elevate or evade metabolic constraints. Mammals exhibit greater skew than birds, consistent with their diverse thermoregulatory adaptations and behaviors. Mammal and bird species that are small and occupy low trophic levels exhibit high levels of MECRB. Mammals with high MECRB tend to hibernate or use torpor. Predicted metabolic rates at the cold range boundaries represent large energetic expenditures (>50% of maximum metabolic rates). We project species to shift their cold range boundaries poleward by an average of 3.9° latitude by 2070 if metabolic constraints remain constant. Our analysis suggests that metabolic constraints provide a viable mechanism for initial projections of the cold range boundaries for endotherms. However, errors and approximations in estimating metabolic constraints (e.g., acclimation responses) and evasion of these constraints (e.g., torpor/hibernation, microclimate selection) highlight the need for more detailed, taxa-specific mechanistic models. Even coarse considerations of metabolism will likely lead to improved predictions over exclusively considering thermal tolerance for endotherms.}, }
@article {pmid30614147, year = {2019}, author = {Sun, Y and Xie, S and Zhao, S}, title = {Valuing urban green spaces in mitigating climate change: A city-wide estimate of aboveground carbon stored in urban green spaces of China's Capital.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14566}, pmid = {30614147}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2017YFC0503901//National key R&amp;D plan of China Grant/ ; 41571079//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41590843//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41771093//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Urban green spaces provide manifold environmental benefits and promote human well-being. Unfortunately, these services are largely undervalued, and the potential of urban areas themselves to mitigate future climate change has received little attention. In this study, we quantified and mapped city-wide aboveground carbon storage of urban green spaces in China's capital, Beijing, using field survey data of diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height from 326 field survey plots, combined with satellite-derived vegetation index at a fine resolution of 6 m. We estimated the total amount of carbon stored in the urban green spaces to be 956.3 Gg (1 Gg = 109 g) in 2014. There existed great spatial heterogeneity in vegetation carbon density varying from 0 to 68.1 Mg C ha-1 , with an average density of 7.8 Mg C ha-1 . As expected, carbon density tended to decrease with urban development intensity (UDI). Likely being affected by vegetation cover proportion and configuration of green space patches, large differences were presented between the 95th and 5th quantile carbon density for each UDI bin, showing great potential for carbon sequestration. However, the interquartile range of carbon density narrowed drastically when UDI reached 60%, signifying a threshold for greatly reduced carbon sequestration potentials for higher UDI. These findings suggested that urban green spaces have great potential to make contribution to mitigating against future climate change if we plan and design urban green spaces following the trajectory of high carbon density, but we should be aware that such potential will be very limited when the urban development reaches certain intensity threshold.}, }
@article {pmid30614129, year = {2019}, author = {Spalink, D and MacKay, R and Sytsma, KJ}, title = {Phylogeography, population genetics and distribution modelling reveal vulnerability of Scirpus longii (Cyperaceae) and the Atlantic Coastal Plain Flora to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/mec.15006}, pmid = {30614129}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {DDIG 1311153//National Science Foundation/ ; //BSA and ASPT graduate student research awards/ ; //UW Department of Botany Flora Aeterna Fellowship/ ; //Davis research grant/ ; //Nova Scotia Species at Risk Conservation Fund/ ; //Texas A&amp;M University/ ; //Mount Saint Vincent University/ ; }, abstract = {A proactive approach to conservation must be predictive, anticipating how habitats will change and which species are likely to decline or prosper. We use composite species distribution modelling to identify suitable habitats for 18 members of the North American Atlantic Coastal Plain Flora (ACPF) since the Last Glacial Maximum and project these into the future. We then use Scirpus longii (Cyperaceae), a globally imperiled ACPF sedge with many of the characteristics of extinction vulnerability, as a case study. We integrate phylogeographical and population genetic analyses and species distribution modelling to develop a broad view of its current condition and prognosis for conservation. We use genotyping-by-sequencing to characterize the genomes of 142 S. longii individuals from 20 populations distributed throughout its range (New Jersey to Nova Scotia). We measure the distribution of genetic diversity in the species and reconstruct its phylogeographical history using the snapp and rase models. Extant populations of S. longii originated from a single refugium south of the Laurentide ice sheet around 25 ka. The genetic diversity of S. longii is exceedingly low, populations exhibit little genetic structure and the species is slightly inbred. Projected climate scenarios indicate that nearly half of extant populations of S. longii will be exposed to unsuitable climate by 2070. Similar changes in suitable habitat will occur for many other northern ACPF species-centres of diversity will shift northward and Nova Scotia may become the last refuges for those species not extinguished.}, }
@article {pmid30613399, year = {2018}, author = {Cook, CJ and Burness, G and Wilson, CC}, title = {Metabolic rates of embryos and alevin from a cold-adapted salmonid differ with temperature, population and family of origin: implications for coping with climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {cox076}, doi = {10.1093/conphys/cox076}, pmid = {30613399}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Early developmental stages of cold-adapted ectotherms such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) are at higher risk of mortality with increasing water temperatures. To determine the amount of variation present in early life, which may allow for potential adaptation to increasing temperature, we examined the routine metabolic rates (RMR) of wild-origin brook trout embryos and alevins reared at normal (5°C) and elevated (9°C) temperatures. The experiment was structured to examine variation in RMR within and among several levels of biological organization (family, population and ancestral type (native vs. mixed ancestry)). As expected, family and temperature variables were most important for predicting RMR and body mass, although population-level differences also existed when family was excluded for more detailed analysis. Additionally, body mass strongly influenced RMR at all life stages except for eyed embryos. When family identity was removed from the analysis, population became the most significant variable. Variation in RMR and mass within and among populations may indicate existing adaptive potential within and among brook trout populations to respond to predicted warming under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30612331, year = {2019}, author = {Ali, SHB and Shafqat, MN and Eqani, SAMAS and Shah, STA}, title = {Trends of climate change in the upper Indus basin region, Pakistan: implications for cryosphere.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {2}, pages = {51}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-018-7184-3}, pmid = {30612331}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Pakistan ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The Indus River, the lifeline of Pakistan's economy and its tributaries, derives most of water flow from the upper Indus basin comprised of Karakorum, Himalaya, and Hindu Kush mountain ranges, thus making this area important in climate change studies. We analyzed the records of climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity (RH) from two weather stations (Gilgit and Skardu) of upper Indus basin region from 1953 to 2006. To observe the trends of climate change, the selected time was divided into two temporal half periods consisting of 27 years each (1953-1979 and 1980-2006). The overall mean temperature (OMT) was decreased by - 0.137 °C in Gilgit, while an increase of 0.63 °C was observed in Skardu during the later period compared to the previous one. The mean minimum temperature (MMT) was found to decrease while mean maximum temperature (MXT) showed non-significant changes during the summer at both locations. However, there was an evidence of spring and winter warming at both locations due to increase in the MXT. The precipitation data showed large interannual variation at both locations. Significant increases in the morning relative humidity (RH) were observed during summer and autumn months at Skardu and throughout the year at Gilgit, while the evening RH increased during the same seasons at both stations. Significant increase in MXT and OMT during spring and winter months at higher elevation (Skardu) may have serious implications for the deposition and melting of seasonal snowpack with impacts on local livelihoods and river flow.}, }
@article {pmid30610180, year = {2019}, author = {Miller-Rushing, AJ and Gallinat, AS and Primack, RB}, title = {Creative citizen science illuminates complex ecological responses to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {3}, pages = {720-722}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1820266116}, pmid = {30610180}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Biological Mimicry ; Climate Change ; Ecology ; }, }
@article {pmid30609226, year = {2019}, author = {Penteriani, V and Zarzo-Arias, A and Novo-Fernández, A and Bombieri, G and López-Sánchez, CA}, title = {Responses of an endangered brown bear population to climate change based on predictable food resource and shelter alterations.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {1133-1151}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14564}, pmid = {30609226}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {The survival of an increasing number of species is threatened by climate change: 20%-30% of plants and animals seem to be at risk of range shift or extinction if global warming reaches levels projected to occur by the end of this century. Plant range shifts may determine whether animal species that rely on plant availability for food and shelter will be affected by new patterns of plant occupancy and availability. Brown bears in temperate forested habitats mostly forage on plants and it may be expected that climate change will affect the viability of the endangered populations of southern Europe. Here, we assess the potential impact of climate change on seven plants that represent the main food resources and shelter for the endangered population of brown bears in the Cantabrian Mountains (Spain). Our simulations suggest that the geographic range of these plants might be altered under future climate warming, with most bear resources reducing their range. As a consequence, this brown bear population is expected to decline drastically in the next 50 years. Range shifts of brown bear are also expected to displace individuals from mountainous areas towards more humanized ones, where we can expect an increase in conflicts and bear mortality rates. Additional negative effects might include: (a) a tendency to a more carnivorous diet, which would increase conflicts with cattle farmers; (b) limited fat storage before hibernation due to the reduction of oak forests; (c) increased intraspecific competition with other acorn consumers, that is, wild ungulates and free-ranging livestock; and (d) larger displacements between seasons to find main trophic resources. The magnitude of the changes projected by our models emphasizes that conservation practices focused only on bears may not be appropriate and thus we need more dynamic conservation planning aimed at reducing the impact of climate change in forested landscapes.}, }
@article {pmid30608960, year = {2019}, author = {Selm, KR and Peterson, MN and Hess, GR and Beck, SM and McHale, MR}, title = {Educational attainment predicts negative perceptions women have of their own climate change knowledge.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e0210149}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0210149}, pmid = {30608960}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Education may encourage personal and collective responses to climate change, but climate education has proven surprisingly difficult and complex. Self-perception of knowledge and intelligence represent one factor that may impact willingness to learn about climate change. We explored this possibility with a case study in Raleigh, North Carolina in 2015 (n = 200). Our goal was to test how gender and ethnicity influenced perceptions people had of their own climate change knowledge. Survey respondents were asked how strongly they agreed with the statement &quot;I feel knowledgeable about climate change&quot; (1 = strongly disagree, and 5 = strongly agree). Our survey instrument also included demographic questions about race, age, income, gender, and education, as well as respondent's experience with natural disasters and drought. We observed an interaction between education and gender where women's self-perceived knowledge was higher than men among people with low levels of educational attainment, but was higher for men than women among people with high levels of educational attainment. In addition, minority respondents self-reported lower perceived climate change knowledge than white respondents, regardless of educational attainment. This study enhances our understanding of the gender gap in self-perceptions of climate knowledge by suggesting it is contingent on educational attainment. This could be the result of stereotype-threat experienced by women and minorities, and exacerbated by educational systems. Because people who question their knowledge are often more able to learn, particularly in ideologically charged contexts, highly educated women and minorities may be more successful learning about climate change than white men.}, }
@article {pmid30606749, year = {2019}, author = {Weigmann, K}, title = {Fixing carbon: To alleviate climate change, scientists are exploring ways to harness nature's ability to capture CO2 from the atmosphere.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.15252/embr.201847580}, pmid = {30606749}, issn = {1469-3178}, }
@article {pmid30606474, year = {2018}, author = {Tong, MX and Hansen, A and Hanson-Easey, S and Xiang, J and Cameron, S and Liu, Q and Liu, X and Sun, Y and Weinstein, P and Han, GS and Williams, C and Mahmood, A and Bi, P}, title = {Dengue control in the context of climate change: Views from health professionals in different geographic regions of China.}, journal = {Journal of infection and public health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jiph.2018.12.010}, pmid = {30606474}, issn = {1876-035X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue is a significant climate-sensitive disease. Public health professionals play an important role in prevention and control of the disease. This study aimed to explore dengue control and prevention in the context of climate change in China.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 630 public health professionals in 2015. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were performed.<br><br>RESULTS: More than 80% of participants from southwest and central China believed climate change would affect dengue. However, participants from northeast China were less likely to believe so (65%). Sixty-nine percent of participants in Yunnan perceived that dengue had emerged/re-emerged in recent years, compared with 40.6% in Henan and 23.8% in Liaoning. Less than 60% of participants thought current prevention and control programs had been effective. Participants believed mosquitoes in high abundance, imported cases and climate change were main risk factors for dengue in China.<br><br>CONCLUSION: There were varying views of dengue in China. Professionals in areas susceptible to dengue were more likely to be concerned about climate change and dengue. Current prevention and control strategies need to be improved. Providing more information for staff in lower levels of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may help in containing a possible increase of dengue.}, }
@article {pmid30606097, year = {2019}, author = {Bruno, JF and Côté, IM and Toth, LT}, title = {Climate Change, Coral Loss, and the Curious Case of the Parrotfish Paradigm: Why Don't Marine Protected Areas Improve Reef Resilience?.}, journal = {Annual review of marine science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {307-334}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-010318-095300}, pmid = {30606097}, issn = {1941-0611}, abstract = {Scientists have advocated for local interventions, such as creating marine protected areas and implementing fishery restrictions, as ways to mitigate local stressors to limit the effects of climate change on reef-building corals. However, in a literature review, we find little empirical support for the notion of managed resilience. We outline some reasons for why marine protected areas and the protection of herbivorous fish (especially parrotfish) have had little effect on coral resilience. One key explanation is that the impacts of local stressors (e.g., pollution and fishing) are often swamped by the much greater effect of ocean warming on corals. Another is the sheer complexity (including numerous context dependencies) of the five cascading links assumed by the managed-resilience hypothesis. If reefs cannot be saved by local actions alone, then it is time to face reef degradation head-on, by directly addressing anthropogenic climate change-the root cause of global coral decline.}, }
@article {pmid30605957, year = {2019}, author = {Shi, XM}, title = {[Air pollution, climate change and health: from evidence to action].}, journal = {Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine]}, volume = {53}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2019.01.001}, pmid = {30605957}, issn = {0253-9624}, support = {2016YFC0206500//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {The adverse effects of air pollution and climate change on human health have already been a major global environmental issue, and the challenges in China are even more severe. In this issue, titled &quot;Air Pollution Climate, Change and Health&quot; , we present a series of articles that reviewed and analyzed the impact of air pollution and climate change on human health systematically, and propose recommendations for the next phase of research. Meanwhile, we introduce the latest achievements of the World Health Organization (WHO) in coping with air pollution and health, summarize the first WHO Global Conference on Air Pollution and Health, and provide evidence-based guidelines for control and prevention of climate change and air pollution in China.}, }
@article {pmid30604087, year = {2019}, author = {Denley, D and Metaxas, A and Fennel, K}, title = {Community composition influences the population growth and ecological impact of invasive species in response to climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {189}, number = {2}, pages = {537-548}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-018-04334-4}, pmid = {30604087}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {RGPIN-2016-04878//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, abstract = {Predicting long-term impacts of introduced species is challenging, since stressors related to global change can influence species-community interactions by affecting both demographic rates of invasive species and the structure of the invaded ecosystems. Invasive species can alter ecosystem structure over time, further complicating interactions between invasive species and invaded communities in response to additional stressors. Few studies have considered how cumulative impacts of species invasion and global change on the structure of invaded ecosystems may influence persistence and population growth of introduced species. Here, we present an empirically based population model for an invasive epiphytic bryozoan that can dramatically alter the structure of its invaded kelp bed ecosystems. We use this model to predict the response of invasive species to climate change and associated changes in the invaded community. Population growth of the bryozoan increased under near-future projections of increasing ocean temperature; however, the magnitude of population growth depended on the community composition of invaded kelp beds. Our results suggest that, in some cases, indirect effects of climate change mediated through changes to the structure of the invaded habitat can modulate direct effects of climate change on invasive species, with consequences for their long-term ecological impact. Our findings have important implications for management of invasive species, as modifying invaded habitats at local to regional scales may be more logistically feasible than addressing stressors related to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30602746, year = {2019}, author = {Newman, J}, title = {Islands' institutes band together against climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {565}, number = {7737}, pages = {25}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-07873-1}, pmid = {30602746}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30600449, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, S and Jiang, J and Zhou, Y and Li, J and Zhao, D and Lin, S}, title = {Climate-change information, health-risk perception and residents' environmental complaint behavior: an empirical study in China.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10653-018-0235-4}, pmid = {30600449}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {71601174//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71804174//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71571172//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2018M632555//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; 16CJL020//National Social Science Foundation of China/ ; 2017R0034//Fujian Fund of Soft Science Research/ ; None//Program for New Century Excellent Talents in Fujian Province University/ ; }, abstract = {Motivating residents to deliver environmental complaints is beneficial for environmental authorities to help them manage environmental issues and alleviate the adverse effects caused by climate change. The major aim of the present study is to understand how climate-change information and residents' health-risk perceptions (both physical and mental dimensions) affect residents' environmental complaint behavior. The research framework was developed according to planned behavior theory, risk perception behavior and information behavior models. This framework was empirically assessed by employing questionnaire survey data gathered from 1273 respondents in China. The results indicate that climate-change information and residents' health-risk perceptions have all significantly positive effects on residents' attitudes toward environmental complaints and their intention to submit environmental complaints. Meanwhile, residents' health-risk perception is also positively affected by climate-change information. Mental health-risk perception plays a much stronger role in determining a residents' attitude and intention to submit an environmental complaint than does physical health-risk perception. Furthermore, attitude toward environmental complaint, perceived behavioral control and subjective norm all have significantly positive effects on a residents' intention to submit an environmental complaint. Additionally, this study also addresses the intention-behavior gap and suggests a positive relationship between intention and behavior. The present study may provide some practical implications to motivate residents to submit environmental complaints.}, }
@article {pmid30598797, year = {2018}, author = {Savva, I and Bennett, S and Roca, G and Jordà, G and Marbà, N}, title = {Thermal tolerance of Mediterranean marine macrophytes: Vulnerability to global warming.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {23}, pages = {12032-12043}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4663}, pmid = {30598797}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The Mediterranean Sea is warming at three times the rate of the global ocean raising concerns about the vulnerability of marine organisms to climate change. Macrophytes play a key role in coastal ecosystems, therefore predicting how warming will affect these key species is critical to understand the effects of climate change on Mediterranean coastal ecosystems. We measured the physiological performance of six dominant native Mediterranean macrophytes under ten temperature treatments ranging from 12 to 34°C to examine their thermal niche, and vulnerability to projected warming in the western Mediterranean up until 2100. Among the macrophytes tested, Cymodocea nodosa was the species with the highest thermal optima and it was beyond current summer temperature. Therefore, C. nodosa may benefit from projected warming over the coming century. The optimal temperature for growth of the other species (Posidonia oceanica, Cystoseira compressa, Padina pavonica, Caulerpa prolifera, and Halimeda tuna) was lower. Similarly, the species presented different upper lethal limits, spanning at least across 5.1°C between 28.9°C (P. oceanica) and >34°C (C. nodosa). Our results demonstrate the variable physiological responses of species within the same local community to temperature changes and highlight important potential differences in climate change vulnerability, among species within coastal marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30598784, year = {2018}, author = {Su, J and Aryal, A and Hegab, IM and Shrestha, UB and Coogan, SCP and Sathyakumar, S and Dalannast, M and Dou, Z and Suo, Y and Dabu, X and Fu, H and Wu, L and Ji, W}, title = {Decreasing brown bear (Ursus arctos) habitat due to climate change in Central Asia and the Asian Highlands.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {23}, pages = {11887-11899}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4645}, pmid = {30598784}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Around the world, climate change has impacted many species. In this study, we used bioclimatic variables and biophysical layers of Central Asia and the Asian Highlands combined with presence data of brown bear (Ursus arctos) to understand their current distribution and predict their future distribution under the current rate of climate change. Our bioclimatic model showed that the current suitable habitat of brown bear encompasses 3,430,493 km2 in the study area, the majority of which (>65%) located in China. Our analyses demonstrated that suitable habitat will be reduced by 11% (378,861.30 km2) across Central Asia and the Asian Highlands by 2,050 due to climate change, predominantly (>90%) due to the changes in temperature and precipitation. The spatially averaged mean annual temperature of brown bear habitat is currently -1.2°C and predicted to increase to 1.6°C by 2,050. Mean annual precipitation in brown bear habitats is predicted to increase by 13% (from 406 to 459 mm) by 2,050. Such changes in two critical climatic variables may significantly affect the brown bear distribution, ethological repertoires, and physiological processes, which may increase their risk of extirpation in some areas. Approximately 32% (1,124,330 km2) of the total suitable habitat falls within protected areas, which was predicted to reduce to 1,103,912 km2 (1.8% loss) by 2,050. Future loss of suitable habitats inside the protected areas may force brown bears to move outside the protected areas thereby increasing their risk of mortality. Therefore, more protected areas should be established in the suitable brown bear habitats in future to sustain populations in this region. Furthermore, development of corridors is needed to connect habitats between protected areas of different countries in Central Asia. Such practices will facilitate climate migration and connectivity among populations and movement between and within countries.}, }
@article {pmid30597870, year = {2018}, author = {Schnitter, R and Verret, M and Berry, P and Chung Tiam Fook, T and Hales, S and Lal, A and Edwards, S}, title = {An Assessment of Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation in Dominica.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16010070}, pmid = {30597870}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {A climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessment was conducted in Dominica, a Caribbean small island developing state located in the Lesser Antilles. The assessment revealed that the country's population is already experiencing many impacts on health and health systems from climate variability and change. Infectious diseases as well as food and waterborne diseases pose continued threats as climate change may exacerbate the related health risks. Threats to food security were also identified, with particular concern for food production systems. The findings of the assessment included near-term and long-term adaptation options that can inform actions of health sector decision-makers in addressing health vulnerabilities and building resilience to climate change. Key challenges include the need for enhanced financial and human resources to build awareness of key health risks and increase adaptive capacity. Other small island developing states interested in pursuing a vulnerability and adaptation assessment may find this assessment approach, key findings, analysis, and lessons learned useful.}, }
@article {pmid30597712, year = {2019}, author = {Peterson, ML and Doak, DF and Morris, WF}, title = {Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {775-793}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14562}, pmid = {30597712}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographic ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade-off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to nonclimatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species-level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA.}, }
@article {pmid30594113, year = {2019}, author = {Puppim de Oliveira, JA}, title = {Intergovernmental relations for environmental governance: Cases of solid waste management and climate change in two Malaysian States.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {233}, number = {}, pages = {481-488}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.097}, pmid = {30594113}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Institutions for environmental governance evolve differently across sectors. They also vary in the same sector when governments at two levels (national and subnational) have different political alignments. As the policy environment becomes more complex, with global problems like climate change, and politics more dividing, better coordination among various levels of government is a tough governance challenge. Scholars and practitioners need to realize how best to build institutions to bridge the various levels of government in different political environments and environmental sectors. This research analyzes the influence of intergovernmental relations in two environmental sectors in two localities with contrasting political alignments between two levels of government. It draws lessons from solid waste management and climate policy in two Malaysian states (Johor and Penang). In an evolving State and new policy arenas, when formal institutions for intergovernmental relations may not be effectively in place, politics play an even larger role through the discretionary power of federal and subnational authorities. An open political process can help with the engagement of different political groups and civil society to bring legitimacy, resources and efficiency to environmental management, if it is done with robust intergovernmental institutions; otherwise, intergovernmental relations can also become a tool for zero-sum games, cronyism and patrimonialism, which can undermine policies, and result in inefficiencies and ineffectiveness in environmental management.}, }
@article {pmid30589982, year = {2019}, author = {Kissel, AM and Palen, WJ and Ryan, ME and Adams, MJ}, title = {Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {e01832}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1832}, pmid = {30589982}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {//NPS George M. Wright Climate Change Youth Initiative Fellowship/ ; //North Coast and Cascades Science Learning Network/ ; //North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative/ ; //Northwest Climate Science Center/ ; //David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellows Program/ ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life-history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow-dominated to rain-dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post-metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species' life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage-based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s, and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed-specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15 yr of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λs) to be 0.97 (95% CI 0.84-1.13), but predict that λs will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.}, }
@article {pmid30587880, year = {2018}, author = {Ylä-Anttila, T and Vesa, J and Eranti, V and Kukkonen, A and Lehtimäki, T and Lonkila, M and Luhtakallio, E}, title = {Up with ecology, down with economy? The consolidation of the idea of climate change mitigation in the global public sphere.}, journal = {European journal of communication}, volume = {33}, number = {6}, pages = {587-603}, doi = {10.1177/0267323118790155}, pmid = {30587880}, issn = {0267-3231}, abstract = {Building on theories of valuation and evaluation, we develop an analytical framework that outlines six elements of the process of consolidation of an idea in the public sphere. We then use the framework to analyse the process of consolidation of the idea of climate change mitigation between 1997 and 2013, focusing on the interplay between ecological and economic evaluations. Our content analysis of 1274 articles in leading newspapers in five countries around the globe shows that (1) ecological arguments increase over time, (2) economic arguments decrease over time, (3) the visibility of environmental nongovernmental organizations as carriers of ecological ideas increases over time, (4) the visibility of business actors correspondingly decreases, (5) ecological ideas are increasingly adopted by political and business elites and (6) a compromise emerges between ecological and economic evaluations, in the form of the argument that climate change mitigation boosts, rather than hinders economic growth.}, }
@article {pmid30587552, year = {2018}, author = {Fan, J and Meng, J and Ashkenazy, Y and Havlin, S and Schellnhuber, HJ}, title = {Climate network percolation reveals the expansion and weakening of the tropical component under global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {52}, pages = {E12128-E12134}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1811068115}, pmid = {30587552}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Global Warming ; Ice Cover/*chemistry ; Models, Theoretical ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate warming, and they may have widespread and diverse effects on health, agriculture, economics, and political conflicts. Still, the detection and quantification of climate change, both in observations and climate models, constitute a main focus of the scientific community. Here, we develop an approach based on network and percolation frameworks to study the impacts of climate changes in the past decades using historical models and reanalysis records, and we analyze the expected upcoming impacts using various future global warming scenarios. We find an abrupt transition during the evolution of the climate network, indicating a consistent poleward expansion of the largest cluster that corresponds to the tropical area, as well as the weakening of the strength of links in the tropic. This is found both in the reanalysis data and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 21st century climate change simulations. The analysis is based on high-resolution surface (2 m) air temperature field records. We discuss the underlying mechanism for the observed expansion of the tropical cluster and associate it with changes in atmospheric circulation represented by the weakening and expansion of the Hadley cell. Our framework can also be useful for forecasting the extent of the tropical cluster to detect its influence on different areas in response to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid30584752, year = {2018}, author = {Xue, JY and Liu, GY}, title = {Urban energy water food land climate change nexus in the flow and policy perspective: A review.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {4226-4238}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201812.038}, pmid = {30584752}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Policy ; Food ; Urbanization/trends ; Water ; }, abstract = {Intricate associations exist between the internal elements of urban ecosystems, with the adjustment in one element can exert impacts of varying degrees on others. The rapid urbanization has brought numerous challenges on the urban sustainable development. To basically solve these problems, the nexus approach needs to be adopted. We clarified three application scenarios of nexus and their corresponding definitions. Meanwhile, the development of urban nexus theory was also provided. The analysis between any two characters among energy, water, food, land and climate change (EWFLC) systems was presented from the perspective of the physical nexus and policy effect nexus, respectively. From the perspective of the physical nexus, most the present stu-dies are concentrated on the urban scale, and aim at the direct nexus, lacking of indirect nexus reaches relatively. Most of the relationships between each two characters will have positive impacts on the society or economy. From the perspective of the policy effect nexus, current policies focused on the five systems are mostly oriented to directly solve problems of targeted system. The intermediate objectives of policy implementation are mostly quantifiable. There are generally multiple indicators of the policy effect evaluations. Furthermore, an analysis framework of urban EWFLC systems simultaneously combining physical and policy nexus was proposed in this study, which aimed to help make policy selections and realize urban sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid30584728, year = {2018}, author = {DU, YD and Shen, P and Wang, H and Tang, XR and Zhao, H}, title = {Impacts of climate change on climatic division for double cropping rice in Guangdong Pro-vince, China.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {4013-4021}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201812.041}, pmid = {30584728}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; *Oryza ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Based on the dataset of air temperature from 86 stations during 1961 to 2016, and DEM data derived from 1:250000 topographic maps, we analyzed the spatial-temporal changes of key climatic factors (safe period for double cropping rice, ≥10 ℃ active accumulated temperature) using the methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, and inverse distance weighted interpolation. The impacts of climate change on climatic division for double cropping rice was studied by combining with the changes of key climate factors for the periods of 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, before (1961-1997) and after (1998-2016) climatic mutation. The results showed that spatial distributions of safe period for double cropping rice and ≥10 ℃ active accumulated temperature were different from place to place in Guangdong. Generally, they were more or higher in south than in north part, in plain than in mountain regions. Under the background of global warming, the safe period for double cropping rice and ≥10 ℃ active accumulated tempera-ture showed a significantly increasing trend with the rate of 1.7 d and 43 ℃·d per decade, respectively. All climatic factor had mutation in the year of 1997. According to the climatic conditions of various maturing rice growth and development, climatic zoning for double cropping rice in Guangdong could be divided into three regions: early maturity with early maturity, early maturity with late maturity, late maturity with late maturity. Those regions were distributed in middle-subtropics of northern Guangdong, south-subtropics of middle Guangdong, and north-tropics of southern Guangdong, respectively. Due to the climate change, the area of late maturity with late maturity significantly increased, the area of early maturity with late maturity significantly decreased, and the area of early maturity with early maturity showed no significant change. Relative to that in 1961-1990, the areas of late maturity with late maturity in 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 increased 1.22&amp;times;106 hm2 and 2.56&amp;times;106 hm2, respectively, but the area of early maturity with late maturity decreased 1.13&amp;times;106 hm2 and 2.56&amp;times;106 hm2, respectively. The area of late maturity with late maturity was more than doubled, but that of early maturity with late maturity decreased about a half after 1997 than that before in Guangdong.}, }
@article {pmid30584107, year = {2019}, author = {Li, Y and Pizer, WA and Wu, L}, title = {Climate change and residential electricity consumption in the Yangtze River Delta, China.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {2}, pages = {472-477}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1804667115}, pmid = {30584107}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Estimating the impact of climate change on energy use across the globe is essential for analysis of both mitigation and adaptation policies. Yet existing empirical estimates are concentrated in Western countries, especially the United States. We use daily data on household electricity consumption to estimate how electricity consumption would change in Shanghai in the context of climate change. For colder days <7 °C, a 1 °C increase in daily temperature reduces electricity consumption by 2.8%. On warm days >25 °C, a 1 °C increase in daily temperatures leads to a 14.5% increase in electricity consumption. As income increases, households' weather sensitivity remains the same for hotter days in the summer but increases during the winter. We use this estimated behavior in conjunction with a collection of downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to construct a relationship between future annual global mean surface temperature (GMST) changes and annual residential electricity consumption. We find that annual electricity consumption increases by 9.2% per +1 °C in annual GMST. In comparison, annual peak electricity use increases by as much as 36.1% per +1 °C in annual GMST. Although most accurate for Shanghai, our findings could be most credibly extended to the urban areas in the Yangtze River Delta, covering roughly one-fifth of China's urban population and one-fourth of the gross domestic product.}, }
@article {pmid30583170, year = {2019}, author = {Jeon, DJ and Ligaray, M and Kim, M and Kim, G and Lee, G and Pachepsky, YA and Cha, DH and Cho, KH}, title = {Evaluating the influence of climate change on the fate and transport of fecal coliform bacteria using the modified SWAT model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {753-762}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.213}, pmid = {30583170}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Bacteria/isolation &amp; purification ; *Bacterial Physiological Phenomena ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Feces/*microbiology ; Models, Biological ; Rain ; Republic of Korea ; Snow ; Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) contamination of natural waters is a serious public health issue. Therefore, understanding and anticipating the fate and transport of FCB are important for reducing the risk of contracting diseases. The objective of this study was to analyze the impacts of climate change on the fate and transport of FCB. We modified both the soil and the in-stream bacteria modules in the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model and verified the prediction accuracy of seasonal variability of FCB loads using observations. Forty bias-correcting GCM-RCM projections were applied in the modified SWAT model to examine various future climate conditions at the end of this century (2076-2100). Lastly, we also compared the variability of FCB loads under current and future weather conditions using multi-model ensemble simulations (MMES). The modified SWAT model yielded a satisfactory performance with regard to the seasonal variability of FCB amounts in the soil and FCB loading to water bodies. The modified SWAT model presented substantial proliferation of FCB in the soil (30.1%-147.5%) due to an increase in temperature (25.1%). Also, increase in precipitation (53.3%) led to an increase in FCB loads (96.0%-115.5%) from the soil to water body. In the in-stream environment, resuspension from the stream bed was the dominant process affecting the amount of FCB in stream. Therefore, the final FCB loads increased by 71.2% because of the growing peak channel velocity and volume of water used due to an increase in precipitation. Based on the results of MMES, we concluded that the level of FCB would increase simultaneously in the soil as well as in stream by the end of this century. This study will aid in understanding the future variability of FCB loads as well as in preparing an effective management plan for FCB levels in natural waters.}, }
@article {pmid30579964, year = {2019}, author = {Huo, D and Sun, L and Zhang, L and Ru, X and Liu, S and Yang, X and Yang, H}, title = {Global-warming-caused changes of temperature and oxygen alter the proteomic profile of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus.}, journal = {Journal of proteomics}, volume = {193}, number = {}, pages = {27-43}, doi = {10.1016/j.jprot.2018.12.020}, pmid = {30579964}, issn = {1876-7737}, abstract = {Multiple environmental stressors caused by global warming influence the regulation of proteins involved in various biological processes in aquatic organisms. As an important component of the marine ecosystem, sea cucumber is a suitable echinoderm species for researching stress responses. In this study, we have investigated the proteomic response of respiratory trees in the sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus, challenged with environmental stresses by using the iTRAQ technique. Results showed that 262, 155 and 433 proteins were differentially regulated in response to heat, hypoxia, and heat plus hypoxia, respectively. Expression of key genes and proteins were measured by real-time PCR and western blot to validate the accuracy of the proteome files. Results showed that the interaction between these two stressors has an additive effect at the proteome level. Proteins involved in amino acid and carbohydrate metabolic processes were largely induced by heat while repressed by hypoxia. Exposure to multiple climate change stressors caused several proteins involved in lipid metabolic progress to be down-regulated and lipid catabolic processes were induced. Additionally, hypoxia and the combined stress induced proteins involved in iron homeostasis. ATP synthesis and gluconeogenesis were induced under heat and the combined stress, while ATP and glycogen synthesis were depressed under hypoxia. Proteins related with immune and defense response were largely induced and protein synthesis ability was depressed under all three stresses. Thus, sea cucumber may adopt different strategies to cope with varied environmental stress, and the situation in heat group is more similar with the combined treatment than hypoxia group. These proteomic changes in response to high-temperature and low-oxygen levels may provide insights into the defense strategies of sea cucumber in response to global climate changes. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY: The study focused on comparative quantitative proteomics on Apostichopus japonicus respiratory tree using iTRAQ in responses to multiple climate change stressors: heat, hypoxia and the combined stress. Data showed that A. japonicus can have an acute reaction in diverse biological pathways to both individual and interacting environmental stress, including substance metabolism, signal transduction, protein synthesis, immune response and energy production. Results indicated that sea cucumber adopted different strategies to cope with varied environmental stress, and the interaction between these two stressors has an additive effect at the proteome level. These results offer insight into the molecular regulation of A. japonicus to multiple environmental stress and reveal possible molecular events in sea cucumber under climate changes. The understanding of adaptive variation under global climate changes in aquatic organisms could be improved.}, }
@article {pmid30577126, year = {2019}, author = {Sapkota, TB and Vetter, SH and Jat, ML and Sirohi, S and Shirsath, PB and Singh, R and Jat, HS and Smith, P and Hillier, J and Stirling, CM}, title = {Cost-effective opportunities for climate change mitigation in Indian agriculture.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {655}, number = {}, pages = {1342-1354}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.225}, pmid = {30577126}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Long-term changes in average temperatures, precipitation, and climate variability threaten agricultural production, food security, and the livelihoods of farming communities globally. Whilst adaptation to climate change is necessary to ensure food security and protect livelihoods of poor farmers, mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can lessen the extent of climate change and future needs for adaptation. Many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate GHG emissions without compromising food production. India is the third largest GHG emitter in the world where agriculture is responsible for 18% of total national emissions. India has identified agriculture as one of the priority sectors for GHG emission reduction in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Identification of emission hotspots and cost-effective mitigation options in agriculture can inform the prioritisation of efforts to reduce emissions without compromising food and nutrition security. We adopted a bottom-up approach to analyse GHG emissions using large datasets of India's 'cost of cultivation survey' and the '19th livestock census' together with soil, climate and management data for each location. Mitigation measures and associated costs and benefits of adoption, derived from a variety of sources including the literature, stakeholder meetings and expert opinion, were presented in the form of Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). We estimated that by 2030, business-as-usual GHG emissions from the agricultural sector in India would be 515 Megatonne CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) per year with a technical mitigation potential of 85.5 MtCO2e per year through adoption of various mitigation practices. About 80% of the technical mitigation potential could be achieved by adopting only cost-saving measures. Three mitigation options, i.e. efficient use of fertilizer, zero-tillage and rice-water management, could deliver more than 50% of the total technical abatement potential.}, }
@article {pmid30573804, year = {2018}, author = {Woesik, RV and Köksal, S and Ünal, A and Cacciapaglia, CW and Randall, CJ}, title = {Predicting coral dynamics through climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {17997}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-36169-7}, pmid = {30573804}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {OCE-1657633//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; OCE-1657633//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1535007//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {Thermal-stress events are changing the composition of many coral reefs worldwide. Yet, determining the rates of coral recovery and their long-term responses to increasing sea-surface temperatures is challenging. To do so, we first estimated coral recovery rates following past disturbances on reefs in southern Japan and Western Australia. Recovery rates varied between regions, with the reefs in southern Japan showing more rapid recovery rates (intrinsic rate of increase, r = 0.38 year-1) than reefs in Western Australia (r = 0.17 year-1). Second, we input these recovery rates into a novel, nonlinear hybrid-stochastic-dynamical system to predict the responses of Indo-Pacific coral populations to complex inter-annual temperature cycles into the year 2100. The coral recovery rates were overlaid on background increases in global sea-surface temperatures, under three different climate-change scenarios. The models predicted rapid recovery at both localities with the infrequent and low-magnitude temperature anomalies expected under a conservative climate-change scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. With moderate increases in ocean temperatures (RCP 6.0) the coral populations showed a bimodal response, with model runs showing either recovery or collapse. Under a business-as-usual climate-change scenario (RCP 8.5), with frequent and intense temperature anomalies, coral recovery was unlikely.}, }
@article {pmid30573189, year = {2019}, author = {Godsmark, CN and Irlam, J and van der Merwe, F and New, M and Rother, HA}, title = {Priority focus areas for a sub-national response to climate change and health: A South African provincial case study.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {122}, number = {}, pages = {31-51}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2018.11.035}, pmid = {30573189}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The intersection of health and climate change is often absent or under-represented in sub-national government strategies. This analysis of the literature, using a new methodological framework, highlights priority focus areas for a sub-national government response to health and climate change, using the Western Cape (WC) province of South Africa as a case study.<br><br>METHODS: A methodological framework was created to conduct a review of priority focus areas relevant for sub-national governments. The framework encompassed the establishment of a Project Steering Group consisting of relevant, sub-national stakeholders (e.g. provincial officials, public and environmental health specialists and academics); an analysis of local climatic projections as well as an analysis of global, national and sub-national health risk factors and impacts.<br><br>RESULTS: Globally, the discussion of health and climate change adaptation strategies in sub-national, or provincial government is often limited. For the case study presented, multiple health risk factors were identified. WC climatic projections include a warmer and potentially drier future with an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. WC government priority focus areas requiring further research on health risk factors include: population migration and environmental refugees, land use change, violence and human conflict and vulnerable groups. WC government priority focus areas for further research on health impacts include: mental ill-health, non-communicable diseases, injuries, poisonings (e.g. pesticides), food and nutrition insecurity-related diseases, water- and food-borne diseases and reproductive health. These areas are currently under-addressed, or not addressed at all, in the current provincial climate change strategy.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Sub-national government adaptation strategies often display limited discussion on the health and climate change intersect. The methodological framework presented in this case study can be globally utilized by other sub-national governments for decision-making and development of climate change and health adaptation strategies. Additionally, due to the broad range of sectoral issues identified, a primary recommendation from this study is that sub-national governments internationally should consider a &quot;health and climate change in all policies&quot; approach when developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30573003, year = {2018}, author = {Rychetnik, L and Sainsbury, P and Stewart, G}, title = {How Local Health Districts can prepare for the effects of climate change: an adaptation model applied to metropolitan Sydney.}, journal = {Australian health review : a publication of the Australian Hospital Association}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1071/AH18153}, pmid = {30573003}, issn = {0156-5788}, abstract = {Climate change adaptation can be defined as a form of risk management (i.e. assessing climate change-related risks and responding appropriately so that the risks can be pre-emptively minimised and managed as they arise). Adapting to climate change by hospital and community health services will entail responding to changing health needs of the local population, and to the likely effects of climate change on health service resources, workforce and infrastructure. In this paper we apply a model that health services can use to predict and respond to climate change risks and illustrate this with reference to Sydney's Local Health Districts (LHDs). We outline the climate change predictions for the Sydney metropolitan area, discuss the resulting vulnerabilities for LHDs and consider the potential of LHDs to respond. Three 'core business' categories are examined: (1) ambulance, emergency and acute health care; (2) routine health care; and (3) population and preventative health services. We consider the key climate change risks and vulnerabilities of the LHDs' workforce, facilities and finances, and some important transboundary issues. Many Australian health services have existing robust disaster plans and management networks. These could be expanded to incorporate local climate and health adaptation plans.What is known about the topic? There is an inextricable relationship between climate change and human health, with important implications for the delivery of health services. Climate change will affect health service demand, and the resources, workforce and infrastructure of health services.What does this paper add? This paper outlines how local health services can use existing data sources and models for assessing their climate change-related risks and vulnerabilities to predict, prepare for and respond to those risks. This is illustrated with reference to Sydney's LHDs.What are the implications for practitioners? Adaptation to climate change by health services is an important component of risk management. Local health services need to prepare for the effects of climate change by assessing the risks and developing and implementing climate and health adaptation plans.}, }
@article {pmid30572212, year = {2019}, author = {Zhou, Q and Leng, G and Su, J and Ren, Y}, title = {Comparison of urbanization and climate change impacts on urban flood volumes: Importance of urban planning and drainage adaptation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {24-33}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.184}, pmid = {30572212}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding the drivers behind urban floods is critical for reducing its devastating impacts to human and society. This study investigates the impacts of recent urban development on hydrological runoff and urban flood volumes in a major city located in northern China, and compares the urbanization impacts with the effects induced by climate change under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). We then quantify the role of urban drainage system in mitigating flood volumes to inform future adaptation strategies. A geo-spatial database on landuse types, surface imperviousness and drainage systems is developed and used as inputs into the SWMM urban drainage model to estimate the flood volumes and related risks under various urbanization and climate change scenarios. It is found that urbanization has led to an increase in annual surface runoff by 208 to 413%, but the changes in urban flood volumes can vary greatly depending on performance of drainage system along the development. Specifically, changes caused by urbanization in expected annual flood volumes are within a range of 194 to 942%, which are much higher than the effects induced by climate change under the RCP 2.6 scenario (64 to 200%). Through comparing the impacts of urbanization and climate change on urban runoff and flood volumes, this study highlights the importance for re-assessment of current and future urban drainage in coping with the changing urban floods induced by local and large-scale changes.}, }
@article {pmid30571775, year = {2018}, author = {Halofsky, JS and Conklin, DR and Donato, DC and Halofsky, JE and Kim, JB}, title = {Climate change, wildfire, and vegetation shifts in a high-inertia forest landscape: Western Washington, U.S.A.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e0209490}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0209490}, pmid = {30571775}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Future vegetation shifts under changing climate are uncertain for forests with infrequent stand-replacing disturbance regimes. These high-inertia forests may have long persistence even with climate change because disturbance-free periods can span centuries, broad-scale regeneration opportunities are fewer relative to frequent-fire systems, and mature tree species are long-lived with relatively high tolerance for sub-optimal growing conditions. Here, we used a combination of empirical and process-based modeling approaches to examine vegetation projections across high-inertia forests of Washington State, USA, under different climate and wildfire futures. We ran our models without forest management (to assess inherent system behavior/potential) and also with wildfire suppression. Projections suggested relatively stable mid-elevation forests through the end of the century despite anticipated increases in wildfire. The largest changes were projected at the lowest and uppermost forest boundaries, with upward expansion of the driest low-elevation forests and contraction of cold, high-elevation subalpine parklands. While forests were overall relatively stable in simulations, increases in early-seral conditions and decreases in late-seral conditions occurred as wildfire became more frequent. With partial fire suppression, projected changes were dampened or delayed, suggesting a potential tool to forestall change in some (but not all) high-inertia forests, especially since extending fire-free periods does little to alter overall fire regimes in these systems. Model projections also illustrated the importance of fire regime context and projection limitations; the time horizon over which disturbances will eventually allow the system to shift are so long that the prevailing climatic conditions under which many of those shifts will occur are beyond what most climate models can predict with any certainty. This will present a fundamental challenge to setting expectations and managing for long-term change in these systems.}, }
@article {pmid30569969, year = {2019}, author = {Hughes, FM and Côrtes-Figueira, JE and Drumond, MA}, title = {Anticipating the response of the Brazilian giant earthworm (Rhinodrilus alatus) to climate change: implications for its traditional use.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {91}, number = {1}, pages = {e20180308}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765201820180308}, pmid = {30569969}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Brazil ; Forecasting ; Geography ; *Global Warming ; Oligochaeta/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Population Dynamics/trends ; Reference Values ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Our understanding of the impacts of ongoing global warming on terrestrial species has increased significantly during the last several years, but how climatic change has affected, and will affect, the distribution of earthworms remains largely unknown. We used climate niche modeling to model the current distribution of the giant earthworm Rhinodrilus alatus - an endemic species of the Cerrado Domain in Brazil, which is traditionally harvested and commercialized for fishing bait. R. alatus is sensitive to environmental changes because climate, in synergy with soil attributes, determine its annual reproductive cycle and distribution. The paleoclimatic reconstructions predict important geographical shifts from LGM (~21,000 yBp) to the present potential distribution of R. alatus: range expansion, fragmentation, and shrinkage of the current core area. Further, the 2070 scenarios predict substantial shrink and losses of stable areas. Our results indicate that climate change will not only affect the extent of the distribution, but will also promote significant fragmentation and a geographical shift to outside of the currently recognized geographical boundaries. In this context, populations of R. alatus would decline and traditional harvesting would collapse, requiring immediate implementation of management and conservation measures for the species and economically sustainable alternatives for the local community.}, }
@article {pmid30568872, year = {2019}, author = {Graham, R and Compton, J and Meador, K}, title = {A systematic review of peer-reviewed literature authored by medical professionals regarding US biomedicine's role in responding to climate change.}, journal = {Preventive medicine reports}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {132-138}, doi = {10.1016/j.pmedr.2018.11.014}, pmid = {30568872}, issn = {2211-3355}, abstract = {Extant literature illustrates a substantive impact on human health because of climate change. Despite this, discussions of the ethical and policymaking role of US health care's response to this problem are underdeveloped within peer-reviewed literature indexed in core medical databases. We conducted a systematic literature review in August 2017 at Vanderbilt University Medical Center of the following medical, business and policy databases to examine the state of inquiry on this topic: PubMed, CINAHL, PsychINFO, JAMA Network, Health Affairs, Business Source Complete, Greylit.org, LexisNexis Academic, Proquest Dissertations and Theses Global. An initial sample of n = 4434 rendered n = 75 articles precisely addressing this question following a two-tiered systematic examination of content. US medical professionals were most concerned by the health impacts of air pollution and respiratory complications, extreme weather events, and rising infectious/vector-borne diseases. They were least concerned by rising rates of migration and stresses to sanitation systems. Medical professionals took a broadly proactive stance to the issue, highlighting the need to implement education and advocacy strategies. Politics was the least pertinent motivation for climate change-related recommendations. Furthermore, partnerships between health care and public agencies were identified as holding the greatest potential for meaningful change. Mitigation approaches were slightly more common than adaptation approaches. We conclude that, while the enthusiasm of the medical community is commendable, efforts to address climate change in US health care are overly fractured, and lack the necessary expertise for efficaciousness.}, }
@article {pmid30568418, year = {2018}, author = {Jones, A}, title = {Malnutrition, Poverty, and Climate Change are also Human Rights Issues in Child Labor.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {249-251}, pmid = {30568418}, issn = {2150-4113}, }
@article {pmid30568024, year = {2018}, author = {Vaidyanathan, G}, title = {Science and Culture: Imagining a climate-change future, without the dystopia.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {51}, pages = {12832-12835}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1819792116}, pmid = {30568024}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid30567014, year = {2019}, author = {Patrício, AR and Varela, MR and Barbosa, C and Broderick, AC and Catry, P and Hawkes, LA and Regalla, A and Godley, BJ}, title = {Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {522-535}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14520}, pmid = {30567014}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Global Warming ; Guinea-Bissau ; Male ; Seasons ; *Sex Ratio ; Temperature ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature-dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900-2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%-93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%-43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%-64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up-to-date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.}, }
@article {pmid30564385, year = {2018}, author = {Quiroga, MP and Premoli, AC and Kitzberger, T}, title = {Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, pages = {180513}, doi = {10.1098/rsos.180513}, pmid = {30564385}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Under changing climates, the persistence of montane subtropical taxa may be threatened as suitable habitats decrease with elevation. We developed future environmental niche models (ENNMs) for Podocarpus parlatorei, the only conifer from southern Yungas in South America, and projected it onto two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios based on 13 global climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. Modelling identified that P. parlatorei is sensitive and restricted to a relatively narrow range of both warm season temperature and precipitation. By the mid-late twenty-first century areas of high suitability for P. parlatorei will not migrate but overall suitability will become substantially reduced across its whole range and surrounding areas. Despite extensive areas in high mountain ranges where the species may encounter thermally optimal conditions to potentially allow upward local migration, these same areas will likely become strongly aridified under future conditions. On the other hand, in lowland locations where rainfall levels will not change substantially (e.g. northern range), excessive warming will likely generate abiotic and biotic restrictions (e.g. competition with lowland species) for this cold-tolerant species. Urgent measures should be developed for the local long-term preservation of the gene pool of the unique conifer that characterizes Yungas forests for reasons of biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid30564031, year = {2018}, author = {Sfenthourakis, S and Hornung, E}, title = {Isopod distribution and climate change.}, journal = {ZooKeys}, volume = {}, number = {801}, pages = {25-61}, doi = {10.3897/zookeys.801.23533}, pmid = {30564031}, issn = {1313-2989}, abstract = {The unique properties of terrestrial isopods regarding responses to limiting factors such as drought and temperature have led to interesting distributional patterns along climatic and other environmental gradients at both species and community level. This paper will focus on the exploration of isopod distributions in evaluating climate change effects on biodiversity at different scales, geographical regions, and environments, in view of isopods' tolerances to environmental factors, mostly humidity and temperature. Isopod distribution is tightly connected to available habitats and habitat features at a fine spatial scale, even though different species may exhibit a variety of responses to environmental heterogeneity, reflecting the large interspecific variation within the group. Furthermore, isopod distributions show some notable deviations from common global patterns, mainly as a result of their ecological features and evolutionary origins. Responses to human disturbance are not always traceable, but a trend towards community homogenisation is often found under strong global urbanisation processes. In general, even though it is still not clear how predicted climate change will affect isopod distribution, there is evidence that mixed effects are to be expected, depending on the region under study. We still lack robust and extensive analyses of isopod distributions at different scales and at different biomes, as well as applications of distribution models that might help evaluate future trends.}, }
@article {pmid30564030, year = {2018}, author = {Hassall, M and Moss, A and Dixie, B and Gilroy, JJ}, title = {Interspecific variation in responses to microclimate by terrestrial isopods: implications in relation to climate change.}, journal = {ZooKeys}, volume = {}, number = {801}, pages = {5-24}, doi = {10.3897/zookeys.801.24934}, pmid = {30564030}, issn = {1313-2989}, abstract = {The importance of considering species-specific biotic interactions when predicting feedbacks between the effects of climate change and ecosystem functions is becoming widely recognised. The responses of soil animals to predicted changes in global climate could potentially have far-reaching consequences for fluxes of soil carbon, including climatic feedbacks resulting from increased emissions of carbon dioxide from soils. The responses of soil animals to different microclimates can be summarised as norms of reaction, in order to compare phenotypic differences in traits along environmental gradients. Thermal and moisture reaction norms for physiological, behavioural and life history traits of species of terrestrial isopods differing in their morphological adaptations for reducing water loss are presented. Gradients of moisture reaction norms for respiratory rates and thermal reaction norms for water loss, for a species from the littoral zone were steeper than those for species from mesic environments. Those for mesic species were steeper than for those from xeric habitats. Within mesic species, gradients of thermal reaction norms for aggregation were steeper for Oniscusasellus than for Porcellioscaber or Armadilliumvulgare, and moisture reaction norms for sheltering and feeding behaviours were steeper for Philosciamuscorum than for either P.scaber or A.vulgare. These differences reflect differences in body shape, permeability of the cuticle, and development of pleopodal lungs. The implications of differences between different species of soil animals in response to microclimate on the possible influence of the soil fauna on soil carbon dynamics under future climates are discussed. In conclusion a modelling approach to bridging the inter-disciplinary gap between carbon cycling and the biology of soil animals is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid30559441, year = {2018}, author = {Klesse, S and DeRose, RJ and Guiterman, CH and Lynch, AM and O'Connor, CD and Shaw, JD and Evans, MEK}, title = {Sampling bias overestimates climate change impacts on forest growth in the southwestern United States.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {5336}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-07800-y}, pmid = {30559441}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate-tree growth relationships recorded in annual growth rings have recently been the basis for projecting climate change impacts on forests. However, most trees and sample sites represented in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) were chosen to maximize climate signal and are characterized by marginal growing conditions not representative of the larger forest ecosystem. We evaluate the magnitude of this potential bias using a spatially unbiased tree-ring network collected by the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. We show that U.S. Southwest ITRDB samples overestimate regional forest climate sensitivity by 41-59%, because ITRDB trees were sampled at warmer and drier locations, both at the macro- and micro-site scale, and are systematically older compared to the FIA collection. Although there are uncertainties associated with our statistical approach, projection based on representative FIA samples suggests 29% less of a climate change-induced growth decrease compared to projection based on climate-sensitive ITRDB samples.}, }
@article {pmid30557386, year = {2018}, author = {Silva, CR and Ribas, CC and Da Silva, MNF and Leite, RN and Catzeflis, F and Rogers, DS and De Thoisy, B}, title = {The role of Pleistocene climate change in the genetic variability, distribution and demography of Proechimys cuvieri and P. guyannensis (Rodentia: Echimyidae) in northeastern Amazonia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e0206660}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0206660}, pmid = {30557386}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The spiny rats, genus Proechimys, have the highest species richness within the Echimyidae family, as well as species with high genetic variability. The genus distribution includes tropical South America and Central America south to Honduras. In this study, we evaluate the phylogeographic histories of Proechimys guyannensis and P. cuvieri using cytochrome b, in a densely sampled area in northeastern Amazon where both species are found in sympatry in different environments. For each species, Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analysis were congruent and recovered similar clades in the studied area. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis using a relaxed molecular clock showed that these clusters of haplotypes diversified during Pleistocene for both species. Apparently, the large rivers of the region did not act as barriers, as some clades include specimens collected from opposite banks of Oiapoque, Araguari and Jari rivers. Bayesian skyline plot analysis showed recent demographic expansion in both species. The Pleistocene climatic changes in concert with the geologic changes in the Amazon fan probably acted as drivers in the diversification that we detected in these two spiny rats. Proechimys cuvieri and P. guyannensis show genetic structure in the eastern part of the Guiana region. Greater genetic distances observed in P. guyannensis, associated with highly structured groups, suggest that more detailed studies of systematics and ecology should be directed to this species.}, }
@article {pmid30555728, year = {2018}, author = {McCauley, SJ and Hammond, JI and Mabry, KE}, title = {Simulated climate change increases larval mortality, alters phenology, and affects flight morphology of a dragonfly.}, journal = {Ecosphere (Washington, D.C)}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ecs2.2151}, pmid = {30555728}, issn = {2150-8925}, support = {K12 GM088021/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {For organisms with complex life cycles, climate change can have both direct effects and indirect effects that are mediated through plastic responses to temperature and that carry over beyond the developmental environment. We examined multiple responses to environmental warming in a dragonfly, a species whose life history bridges aquatic and terrestrial environments. We tested larval survival under warming and whether warmer conditions can create carry-over effects between life history stages. Rearing dragonfly larvae in an experimental warming array to simulate increases in temperature, we contrasted the effects of the current thermal environment with temperatures +2.5°C and +5°C above ambient, temperatures predicted for 50 and 100 years in the future for the study region. Aquatic mesocosms were stocked with dragonfly larvae (Erythemis collocata) and we followed survival of larvae to adult emergence. We also measured the effects of warming on the timing of the life history transition to the adult stage, body size of adults, and the relative size of their wings, an aspect of morphology key to flight performance. There was a trend toward reduced larval survival with increasing temperature. Warming strongly affected the phenology of adult emergence, advancing emergence by up to a month compared with ambient conditions. Additionally, our warmest conditions increased variation in the timing of adult emergence compared with cooler conditions. The increased variation with warming arose from an extended emergence season with fewer individuals emerging at any one time. Altered emergence patterns such as we observed are likely to place individuals emerging outside the typical season at greater risk from early and late season storms and will reduce effective population sizes during the breeding season. Contrary to expectations for ectotherms, body size was unaffected by warming. However, morphology was affected: at +5°C, dragonflies emerging from mesocosms had relatively smaller wings. This provides some of the first evidence that the effects of climate change on animals during their growth can have carry-over effects in morphology that will affect performance of later life history stages. In dragonflies, relatively smaller wings are associated with reduced flight performance, creating a link between larval thermal conditions and adult dispersal capacity.}, }
@article {pmid30555447, year = {2018}, author = {Rodríguez, J and Gallampois, CMJ and Timonen, S and Andersson, A and Sinkko, H and Haglund, P and Berglund, ÅMM and Ripszam, M and Figueroa, D and Tysklind, M and Rowe, O}, title = {Effects of Organic Pollutants on Bacterial Communities Under Future Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {2926}, doi = {10.3389/fmicb.2018.02926}, pmid = {30555447}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Coastal ecosystems are highly dynamic and can be strongly influenced by climate change, anthropogenic activities (e.g., pollution), and a combination of the two pressures. As a result of climate change, the northern hemisphere is predicted to undergo an increased precipitation regime, leading in turn to higher terrestrial runoff and increased river inflow. This increased runoff will transfer terrestrial dissolved organic matter (tDOM) and anthropogenic contaminants to coastal waters. Such changes can directly influence the resident biology, particularly at the base of the food web, and can influence the partitioning of contaminants and thus their potential impact on the food web. Bacteria have been shown to respond to high tDOM concentration and organic pollutants loads, and could represent the entry of some pollutants into coastal food webs. We carried out a mesocosm experiment to determine the effects of: (1) increased tDOM concentration, (2) organic pollutant exposure, and (3) the combined effect of these two factors, on pelagic bacterial communities. This study showed significant responses in bacterial community composition under the three environmental perturbations tested. The addition of tDOM increased bacterial activity and diversity, while the addition of organic pollutants led to an overall reduction of these parameters, particularly under concurrent elevated tDOM concentration. Furthermore, we identified 33 bacterial taxa contributing to the significant differences observed in community composition, as well as 35 bacterial taxa which responded differently to extended exposure to organic pollutants. These findings point to the potential impact of organic pollutants under future climate change conditions on the basal coastal ecosystem, as well as to the potential utility of natural bacterial communities as efficient indicators of environmental disturbance.}, }
@article {pmid30555387, year = {2018}, author = {Markowitz, DM and Laha, R and Perone, BP and Pea, RD and Bailenson, JN}, title = {Immersive Virtual Reality Field Trips Facilitate Learning About Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {2364}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2018.02364}, pmid = {30555387}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Across four studies, two controlled lab experiments and two field studies, we tested the efficacy of immersive Virtual Reality (VR) as an education medium for teaching the consequences of climate change, particularly ocean acidification. Over 270 participants from four different learning settings experienced an immersive underwater world designed to show the process and effects of rising sea water acidity. In all of our investigations, after experiencing immersive VR people demonstrated knowledge gains or inquisitiveness about climate science and in some cases, displayed more positive attitudes toward the environment after comparing pre- and post-test assessments. The analyses also revealed a potential post-hoc mechanism for the learning effects, as the more that people explored the spatial learning environment, the more they demonstrated a change in knowledge about ocean acidification. This work is unique by showing distinct learning gains or an interest in learning across a variety of participants (high school, college students, adults), measures (learning gain scores, tracking data about movement in the virtual world, qualitative responses from classroom teachers), and content (multiple versions varying in length and content about climate change were tested). Our findings explicate the opportunity to use immersive VR for environmental education and to drive information-seeking about important social issues such as climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30551830, year = {2018}, author = {Tüzün, N and Stoks, R}, title = {Evolution of geographic variation in thermal performance curves in the face of climate change and implications for biotic interactions.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {78-84}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2018.07.004}, pmid = {30551830}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {We review the recent literature on geographic variation in insect thermal performance curves (TPCs). Despite strong thermal differences, there is often no change in TPCs across geographic gradients. When shifts occur, these are mostly vertical (indicating an overall shift in performance across temperatures, that is, countergradient or cogradient variation) and less horizontal (reflecting thermal adaptation). Based on this, using a space-for-time substitution approach, we generated likely evolutionary scenarios of TPC evolution to simulate the outcome of biotic interactions under future warming. We illustrate how taking evolution of the TPCs into account may strongly impact the predicted outcome of biotic interactions under climate warming. Importantly, both the type and the magnitude of the TPC shift was identified to be crucial to determine who will be winners and losers of biotic interactions.}, }
@article {pmid30551819, year = {2018}, author = {Pellissier, L and Rasmann, S}, title = {The functional decoupling of processes in alpine ecosystems under climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {126-132}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2018.07.005}, pmid = {30551819}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Climate change may promote the decoupling of the different above-ground and below-ground compartments of high elevation ecosystems. Along elevation gradients, a trade-off between species tolerance to cold climates and metabolic rates dictates that cold adapted organisms display a lower efficiency in decomposition, growth or herbivory. As a consequence, if dispersal or evolution under climate change is systematically faster for agents of one compartment (e.g. insect herbivores, or soil microbes, respectively) compared to others, novel and more efficient functions will arise in the alpine systems and increase fluxes of elements to and through this compartment. We illustrate this potential decoupling using a mechanistic model, where the efficiency of agents in the compartments follows the metabolic theory. To detect and forecast ecosystem decoupling under climate change, we argue that the current efficiency of agents should be measured systematically along elevation gradients. In addition, future research should investigate the impact of dispersal and evolution in response to climate change on ecosystem processes.}, }
@article {pmid30550901, year = {2019}, author = {Nunfam, VF and Oosthuizen, J and Adusei-Asante, K and Van Etten, EJ and Frimpong, K}, title = {Perceptions of climate change and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of mining workers in Ghana.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {657}, number = {}, pages = {365-378}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.480}, pmid = {30550901}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Ghana ; Heat Stress Disorders/etiology/*prevention &amp; control/psychology ; *Heat-Shock Response ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Mining ; Occupational Exposure/*analysis/prevention &amp; control ; *Perception ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Heavy physical workload for long hours coupled with increasing workplace heat exposure due to rising temperatures stemming from climate change, especially where there are inadequate prevention and control policies, adversely affect workers' health and safety, productive capacity and social well-being. However, variations in workers' concerns and awareness of occupational heat stress and climate change risks impede the effectiveness of heat stress management. A mixed method approach was used to assess climate change perceptions and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of Ghanaian mining workers. Questionnaires and focus group discussions were used to collect data from 320 respondents. Quantitative and qualitative approaches were used for data analysis. Workers' climate change risk perception, as confirmed by trends in climate data, was reasonable, but concerns about climate change effects and workplace heat exposure risks varied significantly across types of mining activity (p < 0.001). Workers experienced heat-related morbidities, but the variation in heat-related morbidity experiences across the type of mining activity was not significant. However, the type of heat-related morbidities experienced by workers differed across the type of mining activity (p < 0.001). Workers' awareness of occupational heat stress prevention and control was adequate. The disparities in workers' awareness and use of the prevention and control measures significantly differed across the type of mining activity (p < 0.001). Occupational heat stress prevention activities should focus on workers, and a concerted effort must be made to promote workers' adaptive capacity and inform policy decisions.}, }
@article {pmid30550898, year = {2019}, author = {Bai, M and Mo, X and Liu, S and Hu, S}, title = {Contributions of climate change and vegetation greening to evapotranspiration trend in a typical hilly-gully basin on the Loess Plateau, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {657}, number = {}, pages = {325-339}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.360}, pmid = {30550898}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Plant Development ; *Plant Transpiration ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Significant increases in vegetation cover on the Loess Plateau since the early 2000s have been well documented. However, the relevant hydrological effects are still unclear. Here, we investigated the changes in actual evapotranspiration (ETa) from 2000 to 2016 and related them to climate change and vegetation greening in Yanhe River basin (YRB), a typical hilly-gully basin on the Loess Plateau, by using the remote-sensing based VIP model. Results showed that the annual ETa in the YRB increased significantly with a trend of 3.45mmyr-1 (p<0.01) and changes of ETa in summer months dominated the annual trend. Partial correlation analysis suggested that vegetation greening was the dominant driving factor of ETa inter-annual variations in 56% area of YRB. Model simulation experiments illustrated that relative contributions of NDVI, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (ETp) to the ETa trend were 93.0%, 18.1%, and -7.4%, respectively. Vegetation greening, which is closely related to the Grain for Green (GFG) afforestation, was the main driver to the long-term tendency of water consumption in the YRB. This study highlights potential water demanding conflicts between the socio-economic system and the natural ecosystem on the Loess Plateau due to the rapid vegetation expansion in this water-limited area.}, }
@article {pmid30549378, year = {2019}, author = {Collalti, A and Thornton, PE and Cescatti, A and Rita, A and Borghetti, M and Nolè, A and Trotta, C and Ciais, P and Matteucci, G}, title = {The sensitivity of the forest carbon budget shifts across processes along with stand development and climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {e01837}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1837}, pmid = {30549378}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {//U.S. Department of Energy/ ; }, abstract = {The future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration depends on the development of the terrestrial carbon sink, which in turn is influenced by forest dynamics under changing environmental conditions. An in-depth understanding of model sensitivities and uncertainties in non-steady-state conditions is necessary for reliable and robust projections of forest development and under scenarios of global warming and CO2 enrichment. Here, we systematically assessed if a biogeochemical process-based model (3D-CMCC-CNR), which embeds similarities with many other vegetation models, applied in simulating net primary productivity (NPP) and standing woody biomass (SWB), maintained a consistent sensitivity to its 55 input parameters through time, during forest ageing and structuring as well as under climate change scenarios. Overall, the model applied at three contrasting European forests showed low sensitivity to the majority of its parameters. Interestingly, model sensitivity to parameters varied through the course of >100 yr of simulations. In particular, the model showed a large responsiveness to the allometric parameters used for initialize forest carbon and nitrogen pools early in forest simulation (i.e., for NPP up to ~37%, 256 g C·m-2 ·yr-1 and for SWB up to ~90%, 65 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation), with this sensitivity decreasing sharply during forest development. At medium to longer time scales, and under climate change scenarios, the model became increasingly more sensitive to additional and/or different parameters controlling biomass accumulation and autotrophic respiration (i.e., for NPP up to ~30%, 167 g C·m-2 ·yr-1 and for SWB up to ~24%, 64 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation). Interestingly, model outputs were shown to be more sensitive to parameters and processes controlling stand development rather than to climate change (i.e., warming and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration) itself although model sensitivities were generally higher under climate change scenarios. Our results suggest the need for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses that cover multiple temporal scales along forest developmental stages to better assess the potential of future forests to act as a global terrestrial carbon sink.}, }
@article {pmid30549200, year = {2019}, author = {Asseng, S and Martre, P and Maiorano, A and Rötter, RP and O'Leary, GJ and Fitzgerald, GJ and Girousse, C and Motzo, R and Giunta, F and Babar, MA and Reynolds, MP and Kheir, AMS and Thorburn, PJ and Waha, K and Ruane, AC and Aggarwal, PK and Ahmed, M and Balkovič, J and Basso, B and Biernath, C and Bindi, M and Cammarano, D and Challinor, AJ and De Sanctis, G and Dumont, B and Eyshi Rezaei, E and Fereres, E and Ferrise, R and Garcia-Vila, M and Gayler, S and Gao, Y and Horan, H and Hoogenboom, G and Izaurralde, RC and Jabloun, M and Jones, CD and Kassie, BT and Kersebaum, KC and Klein, C and Koehler, AK and Liu, B and Minoli, S and Montesino San Martin, M and Müller, C and Naresh Kumar, S and Nendel, C and Olesen, JE and Palosuo, T and Porter, JR and Priesack, E and Ripoche, D and Semenov, MA and Stöckle, C and Stratonovitch, P and Streck, T and Supit, I and Tao, F and Van der Velde, M and Wallach, D and Wang, E and Webber, H and Wolf, J and Xiao, L and Zhang, Z and Zhao, Z and Zhu, Y and Ewert, F}, title = {Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {155-173}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14481}, pmid = {30549200}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Marie Curie/United Kingdom ; //Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Food Quality ; Grain Proteins/*analysis ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Temperature ; Triticum/*chemistry/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.}, }
@article {pmid30548989, year = {2018}, author = {Dorado-Liñán, I and Piovesan, G and Martínez-Sancho, E and Gea-Izquierdo, G and Zang, C and Cañellas, I and Castagneri, D and Di Filippo, A and Gutiérrez, E and Ewald, J and Fernández-de-Uña, L and Hornstein, D and Jantsch, MC and Levanič, T and Mellert, KH and Vacchiano, G and Zlatanov, T and Menzel, A}, title = {Geographical adaptation prevails over species-specific determinism in trees' vulnerability to climate change at Mediterranean rear-edge forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14544}, pmid = {30548989}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Bavarian State Forest Authority (Project MARGINS)/ ; //IGSSE_TUM (Water03-IDDEC)/ ; S2013/MAE-2760//Comunidad de Madrid (Project BOSSANOVA)/ ; //Postdoctoral Junior Leader Fellowship Programme from &quot;la Caixa&quot; Banking Foundation/ ; AGL 2014-61175-JIN//Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness/ ; RyC-2014-15864//Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness/ ; 282250//European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Climate change may reduce forest growth and increase forest mortality, which is connected to high carbon costs through reductions in gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Yet, the spatiotemporal patterns of vulnerability to both short-term extreme events and gradual environmental changes are quite uncertain across the species' limits of tolerance to dryness. Such information is fundamental for defining ecologically relevant upper limits of species tolerance to drought and, hence, to predict the risk of increased forest mortality and shifts in species composition. We investigate here to what extent the impact of short- and long-term environmental changes determines vulnerability to climate change of three evergreen conifers (Scots pine, silver fir, Norway spruce) and two deciduous hardwoods (European beech, sessile oak) tree species at their southernmost limits of distribution in the Mediterranean Basin. Finally, we simulated future forest growth under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios using a multispecies generalized linear mixed model. Our analysis provides four key insights into the patterns of species' vulnerability to climate change. First, site climatic marginality was significantly linked to the growth trends: increasing growth was related to less climatically limited sites. Second, estimated species-specific vulnerability did not match their a priori rank in drought tolerance: Scots pine and beech seem to be the most vulnerable species among those studied despite their contrasting physiologies. Third, adaptation to site conditions prevails over species-specific determinism in forest response to climate change. And fourth, regional differences in forests vulnerability to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin are linked to the influence of summer atmospheric circulation patterns, which are not correctly represented in global climate models. Thus, projections of forest performance should reconsider the traditional classification of tree species in functional types and critically evaluate the fine-scale limitations of the climate data generated by global climate models.}, }
@article {pmid30546038, year = {2018}, author = {Howard, AF}, title = {Asclepias Syriaca (Common Milkweed) flowering date shift in response to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {17802}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-36152-2}, pmid = {30546038}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The consequences of altered flowering dates due to climate change can be severe, especially for plants that rely on coordinated flower and pollinator emergence for reproduction. The plant Asclepias syriaca (Common Milkweed) relies on pollinators for movement of its pollen and evidence suggests that it has recently been declining. Given these factors and this plant's importance as a host species for the declining Danaus plexippus (Monarch Butterfly), it is critical to determine if its flowering is being modified by climate change. As a first step to answering this question I quantified the relationship between climate and flowering date for A. syriaca using data from the USA National Phenology Network repository and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. I found that temperatures were higher than they had been historically (1895-2010) and mean flowering dates occurred earlier with higher temperatures. Additionally, there is a significant negative interactive effect of temperature and year on flowering date indicating that from 2011 through 2016 higher temperatures are correlated with increasingly earlier flowering dates. The change in flowering appears to be symmetrical in regards to the flowering time distribution, in that along with the mean, both maximum and minimum flowering dates are occurring earlier, as well. There is no evidence that earlier flowering is due to earlier initial growth or results in later fruit ripening. Consequences of this shift in flowering can only be speculated upon at this point, but due to the ecological importance of A. syriaca and its susceptibility to phenological mismatch, they should be considered when developing conservation plans for A. syriaca and the organisms for which it is a host.}, }
@article {pmid30544616, year = {2018}, author = {Pragna, P and Chauhan, SS and Sejian, V and Leury, BJ and Dunshea, FR}, title = {Climate Change and Goat Production: Enteric Methane Emission and Its Mitigation.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani8120235}, pmid = {30544616}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {The ability of an animal to cope and adapt itself to the changing climate virtually depends on the function of rumen and rumen inhabitants such as bacteria, protozoa, fungi, virus and archaea. Elevated ambient temperature during the summer months can have a significant influence on the basic physiology of the rumen, thereby affecting the nutritional status of the animals. Rumen volatile fatty acid (VFA) production decreases under conditions of extreme heat. Growing recent evidence suggests there are genetic variations among breeds of goats in the impact of heat stress on rumen fermentation pattern and VFA production. Most of the effects of heat stress on rumen fermentation and enteric methane (CH₄) emission are attributed to differences in the rumen microbial population. Heat stress-induced rumen function impairment is mainly associated with an increase in Streptococcus genus bacteria and with a decrease in the bacteria of Fibrobactor genus. Apart from its major role in global warming and greenhouse effect, enteric CH4 is also considered as a dietary energy loss in goats. These effects warrant mitigating against CH₄ production to ensure optimum economic return from goat farming as well as to reduce the impact on global warming as CH₄ is one of the more potent greenhouse gases (GHG). The various strategies that can be implemented to mitigate enteric CH4 emission include nutritional interventions, different management strategies and applying advanced biotechnological tools to find solution to reduce CH₄ production. Through these advanced technologies, it is possible to identify genetically superior animals with less CH₄ production per unit feed intake. These efforts can help the farming community to sustain goat production in the changing climate scenario.}, }
@article {pmid30542175, year = {2018}, author = {Ham, YG}, title = {El Niño events will intensify under global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {564}, number = {7735}, pages = {192-193}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-07638-w}, pmid = {30542175}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30542169, year = {2018}, author = {Searchinger, TD and Wirsenius, S and Beringer, T and Dumas, P}, title = {Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {564}, number = {7735}, pages = {249-253}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0757-z}, pmid = {30542169}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Land-use changes are critical for climate policy because native vegetation and soils store abundant carbon and their losses from agricultural expansion, together with emissions from agricultural production, contribute about 20 to 25 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions1,2. Most climate strategies require maintaining or increasing land-based carbon3 while meeting food demands, which are expected to grow by more than 50 per cent by 20501,2,4. A finite global land area implies that fulfilling these strategies requires increasing global land-use efficiency of both storing carbon and producing food. Yet measuring the efficiency of land-use changes from the perspective of greenhouse gas emissions is challenging, particularly when land outputs change, for example, from one food to another or from food to carbon storage in forests. Intuitively, if a hectare of land produces maize well and forest poorly, maize should be the more efficient use of land, and vice versa. However, quantifying this difference and the yields at which the balance changes requires a common metric that factors in different outputs, emissions from different agricultural inputs (such as fertilizer) and the different productive potentials of land due to physical factors such as rainfall or soils. Here we propose a carbon benefits index that measures how changes in the output types, output quantities and production processes of a hectare of land contribute to the global capacity to store carbon and to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions. This index does not evaluate biodiversity or other ecosystem values, which must be analysed separately. We apply the index to a range of land-use and consumption choices relevant to climate policy, such as reforesting pastures, biofuel production and diet changes. We find that these choices can have much greater implications for the climate than previously understood because standard methods for evaluating the effects of land use4-11 on greenhouse gas emissions systematically underestimate the opportunity of land to store carbon if it is not used for agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid30523096, year = {2018}, author = {Kump, L}, title = {Climate change and marine mass extinction.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6419}, pages = {1113-1114}, doi = {10.1126/science.aav736}, pmid = {30523096}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; }, }
@article {pmid30523040, year = {2018}, author = {Limb, M}, title = {Health gains make actions to curb climate change cost neutral, says WHO.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {k5197}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.k5197}, pmid = {30523040}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid30541052, year = {2019}, author = {Dolezal, J and Dvorsky, M and Kopecky, M and Altman, J and Mudrak, O and Capkova, K and Rehakova, K and Macek, M and Liancourt, P}, title = {Functionally distinct assembly of vascular plants colonizing alpine cushions suggests their vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {123}, number = {4}, pages = {569-578}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcy207}, pmid = {30541052}, issn = {1095-8290}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alpine cushion plants can initially facilitate other species during ecological succession, but later on can be negatively affected by their development, especially when beneficiaries possess traits allowing them to overrun their host. This can be reinforced by accelerated warming favouring competitively strong species over cold-adapted cushion specialists. However, little empirical research has addressed the trait-based mechanisms of these interactions. The ecological strategies of plants colonizing the cushion plant Thylacospermum caespitosum (Caryophyllaceae), a dominant pioneer of subnival zones, were studied in the Western Himalayas.<br><br>METHODS: To assess whether the cushion colonizers are phylogenetically and functionally distinct, 1668 vegetation samples were collected, both in open ground outside the cushions and inside their live and dead canopies, in two mountain ranges, Karakoram and Little Tibet. More than 50 plant traits related to growth, biomass allocation and resource acquisition were measured for target species, and the phylogenetic relationships of these species were studied [or determined].<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Species-based trait-environment analysis with phylogenetic correction showed that in both mountain ranges Thylacospermum colonizers are phylogenetically diverse but functionally similar and are functionally different from species preferring bare soil outside cushions. Successful colonizers are fast-growing, clonal graminoids and forbs, penetrating the cushion by rhizomes and stolons. They have higher root-to-shoot ratios, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, and soil moisture and nutrient demands, sharing the syndrome of competitive species with broad elevation ranges typical of the late stages of primary succession. In contrast, the species from open ground have traits typical of stress-tolerant specialists from high and dry environments.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Species colonizing tight cushions of T. caespitosum are competitively strong graminoids and herbaceous perennials from alpine grasslands. Since climate change in the Himalayas favours these species, highly specialized subnival cushion plants may face intense competition and a greater risk of decline in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30540743, year = {2018}, author = {Gareau, BJ and Huang, X and Gareau, TP}, title = {Social and ecological conditions of cranberry production and climate change attitudes in New England.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e0207237}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0207237}, pmid = {30540743}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Cranberry growers in New England are increasingly pressured by negative effects associated with global climate change, some of which are familiar to this group (such as precipitation fluctuations and pest pressures), others that are rather new (such as warmer winters that threaten needed chill hours for the plants to bloom). The first study of this population of its kind, we use a survey, supplemented with observations and interviews, to assess Massachusetts cranberry grower attitudes towards climate change, and whether certain conditions of production might be associated with their attitudes. Our findings suggest that certain personal and ecological conditions are associated with greater worry of climate change effects, and that communal conditions of the cranberry grower social network provide some ways to cope with a warming climate. While the cranberry growing community has created a strong social network that has allowed it to sustain production, a warming planet will likely require significant change in order to overcome general attitudes of climate skepticism so that cranberry production may continue in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30537359, year = {2019}, author = {La Sorte, FA and Horton, KG and Nilsson, C and Dokter, AM}, title = {Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {589-601}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14531}, pmid = {30537359}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Seasons ; United States ; *Wind ; }, abstract = {Current climate models and observations indicate that atmospheric circulation is being affected by global climate change. To assess how these changes may affect nocturnally migrating bird populations, we need to determine how current patterns of wind assistance at migration altitudes will be enhanced or reduced under future atmospheric conditions. Here, we use information compiled from 143 weather surveillance radars stations within the contiguous United States to estimate the daily altitude, density, and direction of nocturnal migration during the spring and autumn. We intersected this information with wind projections to estimate how wind assistance is expected to change during this century at current migration altitudes. The prevailing westerlies at midlatitudes are projected to increase in strength during spring migration and decrease in strength to a lesser degree during autumn migration. Southerly winds will increase in strength across the continent during both spring and autumn migration, with the strongest gains occurring in the center of the continent. Wind assistance is projected to increase across the central (0.44 m/s; 10.1%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.32 m/s; 9.6%) during spring migration, and wind assistance is projected to decrease within the central (0.32 m/s; 19.3%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.17 m/s; 6.6%) during autumn migration. Thus, across a broad portion of the continent where migration intensity is greatest, the efficiency of nocturnal migration is projected to increase in the spring and decrease in the autumn, potentially affecting time and energy expenditures for many migratory bird species. These findings highlight the importance of placing climate change projections within a relevant ecological context informed through empirical observations, and the need to consider the possibility that climate change may generate both positive and negative implications for natural systems.}, }
@article {pmid30530689, year = {2018}, author = {Hof, C and Voskamp, A and Biber, MF and Böhning-Gaese, K and Engelhardt, EK and Niamir, A and Willis, SG and Hickler, T}, title = {Bioenergy cropland expansion may offset positive effects of climate change mitigation for global vertebrate diversity.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {52}, pages = {13294-13299}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1807745115}, pmid = {30530689}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Amphibians ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Crops, Agricultural ; *Ecosystem ; Mammals ; Species Specificity ; *Vertebrates ; }, abstract = {Climate and land-use change interactively affect biodiversity. Large-scale expansions of bioenergy have been suggested as an important component for climate change mitigation. Here we use harmonized climate and land-use projections to investigate their potential combined impacts on global vertebrate diversity under a low- and a high-level emission scenario. We combine climate-based species distribution models for the world's amphibians, birds, and mammals with land-use change simulations and identify areas threatened by both climate and land-use change in the future. The combined projected effects of climate and land-use change on vertebrate diversity are similar under the two scenarios, with land-use change effects being stronger under the low- and climate change effects under the high-emission scenario. Under the low-emission scenario, increases in bioenergy cropland may cause severe impacts in biodiversity that are not compensated by lower climate change impacts. Under this low-emission scenario, larger proportions of species distributions and a higher number of small-range species may become impacted by the combination of land-use and climate change than under the high-emission scenario, largely a result of bioenergy cropland expansion. Our findings highlight the need to carefully consider both climate and land-use change when projecting biodiversity impacts. We show that biodiversity is likely to suffer severely if bioenergy cropland expansion remains a major component of climate change mitigation strategies. Our study calls for an immediate and significant reduction in energy consumption for the benefit of both biodiversity and to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.}, }
@article {pmid30529965, year = {2019}, author = {Dong, Z and Driscoll, CT and Johnson, SL and Campbell, JL and Pourmokhtarian, A and Stoner, AMK and Hayhoe, K}, title = {Projections of water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics under future climate change in an old-growth Douglas-fir forest in the western Cascade Range using a biogeochemical model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {656}, number = {}, pages = {608-624}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.377}, pmid = {30529965}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Models, Theoretical ; *Nitrogen Cycle ; Oregon ; Pseudotsuga/*physiology ; Stress, Physiological ; *Water Cycle ; }, abstract = {Statistically downscaled climate change scenarios from four General Circulation Models for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were applied as inputs to a biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, to examine potential future dynamics of water, carbon, and nitrogen in an old-growth Douglas-fir forest in the western Cascade Range. Projections show 56% to 77% increases in stomatal conductance throughout the year from 1986-2010 to 2076-2100, and 65% to 104% increases in leaf carbon assimilation between October and June over the same period. However, future dynamics of water and carbon under the RCP scenarios are affected by a 49% to 86% reduction in foliar biomass resulting from severe air temperature and humidity stress to the forest in summer. Important implications of future decreases in foliar biomass include 1) 20% to 71% decreases in annual transpiration which increase soil moisture by 7% to 15% in summer and fall; 2) decreases in photosynthesis by 77% and soil organic matter by 62% under the high radiative forcing scenario; and 3) altered foliar and soil carbon to nitrogen stoichiometry. Potential carbon dioxide fertilization effects on vegetation are projected to 1) amplify decreases in transpiration by 4% to 9% and increases in soil moisture in summer and fall by 1% to 2%; and 2) alleviate decreases in photosynthesis by 4%; while 3) having negligible effects on the dynamics of nitrogen. Our projections suggest that future decrease in transpiration and moderate water holding capacity may mitigate soil moisture stress to the old-growth Douglas-fir forest. Future increases in nitrogen concentration in soil organic matter are projected to alleviate the decrease in net nitrogen mineralization despite a reduction in decomposition of soil organic matter by the end of the century.}, }
@article {pmid30529418, year = {2019}, author = {Terzi, S and Torresan, S and Schneiderbauer, S and Critto, A and Zebisch, M and Marcomini, A}, title = {Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {232}, number = {}, pages = {759-771}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.100}, pmid = {30529418}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on our society, the economy and the environment. According to future scenarios, mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, including changes in the water cycle (e.g. rainfall extremes, melting of glaciers, river runoff), loss of biodiversity and ecosystems services, damages to local economy (drinking water supply, hydropower generation, agricultural suitability) and human safety (risks of natural hazards). This is due to their exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. temperature regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. mountain species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). These characteristics call for the application of risk assessment methodologies able to describe the complex interactions among multiple hazards, biophysical and socio-economic systems, towards climate change adaptation. Current approaches used to assess climate change risks often address individual risks separately and do not fulfil a comprehensive representation of cumulative effects associated to different hazards (i.e. compound events). Moreover, pioneering multi-layer single risk assessment (i.e. overlapping of single-risk assessments addressing different hazards) is still widely used, causing misleading evaluations of multi-risk processes. This raises key questions about the distinctive features of multi-risk assessments and the available tools and methods to address them. Here we present a review of five cutting-edge modelling approaches (Bayesian networks, agent-based models, system dynamic models, event and fault trees, and hybrid models), exploring their potential applications for multi-risk assessment and climate change adaptation in mountain regions. The comparative analysis sheds light on advantages and limitations of each approach, providing a roadmap for methodological and technical implementation of multi-risk assessment according to distinguished criteria (e.g. spatial and temporal dynamics, uncertainty management, cross-sectoral assessment, adaptation measures integration, data required and level of complexity). The results show limited applications of the selected methodologies in addressing the climate and risks challenge in mountain environments. In particular, system dynamic and hybrid models demonstrate higher potential for further applications to represent climate change effects on multi-risk processes for an effective implementation of climate adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid30529236, year = {2019}, author = {Zhu, L and Wang, L and Ma, CS}, title = {Sporadic short temperature events cannot be neglected in predicting impacts of climate change on small insects.}, journal = {Journal of insect physiology}, volume = {112}, number = {}, pages = {48-56}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinsphys.2018.12.003}, pmid = {30529236}, issn = {1879-1611}, abstract = {Climate warming is characterized by increase in extreme heat events (EHEs). EHEs and mild temperature periods alternate with each other and form complex climate scenarios. Among these scenarios, low-frequency and short-duration extreme heat events during long mild periods (sporadic short EHEs) and low-frequency and short-duration mild periods during long extreme heat events (sporadic short mild periods) commonly occur in nature. The biological effects of these two types of temperature events have not been thoroughly elucidated to date. To clarify the biological effects of these temperature events on organisms, we selected the English grain aphid, a globally important cereal pest, as our model system. We exposed aphids to simulated 24-h diurnal fluctuating temperatures, inserted these events during the wheat growing season and then investigated development, adult longevity, fecundity, survival, and demographic parameters. We found that sporadic short mild periods during a long EHE could improve their life history traits. Increasing the duration of mild periods from 1 day to 2 days did not significantly change their demographic performance. Sporadic short EHEs during a long mild period did not significantly affect vital rates, while increasing the duration of EHEs from 1 day to 2 days worsened the aphids' performance. We found that short mild episodes in the hot season may benefit small insects to buffer long duration heatwaves. We discussed how sporadic short mild periods during a long EHE supplied aphids a chance to recover from heat stress. Thus, we suggest that sporadic temperature events should be considered in population prediction of small insects under climate change and should be integrated into pest management.}, }
@article {pmid30527411, year = {2018}, author = {Turner, B}, title = {Tackling antimicrobial resistance and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {392}, number = {10163}, pages = {2435-2436}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32413-9}, pmid = {30527411}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Anti-Bacterial Agents/*therapeutic use ; Biomedical Research/economics ; *Climate Change ; *Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; Financing, Government ; Humans ; Ireland ; }, }
@article {pmid30526940, year = {2018}, author = {Andrews, O and Le Quéré, C and Kjellstrom, T and Lemke, B and Haines, A}, title = {Implications for workability and survivability in populations exposed to extreme heat under climate change: a modelling study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {12}, pages = {e540-e547}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30240-7}, pmid = {30526940}, issn = {2542-5196}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Changes in temperature and humidity due to climate change affect living and working conditions. An understanding of the effects of different global temperature changes on population health is needed to inform the continued implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement and to increase global ambitions for greater cuts in emissions. By use of historical and projected climate conditions, we aimed to investigate the effects of climate change on workability (ie, the ability to work) and survivability (the ability to survive).<br><br>METHODS: In this modelling study, we estimated the changes in populations exposed to excessive heat stress between the recent past (ie, 1986-2005) and 2100. We used climate data from four models to calculate the wet-bulb globe temperature, an established heat exposure index that can be used to assess the effects of temperature, humidity, and other environmental factors on humans. We defined and applied thresholds for risks to workability (where the monthly mean of daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature exceeds 34°C) and survivability (where the maximum daily wet-bulb globe temperature exceeds 40°C for 3 consecutive days), and we used population projections to quantify changes in risk associated with different changes to the global temperature.<br><br>FINDINGS: The risks to workability increase substantially with global mean surface temperature in all four climate models, with approximately 1 billion people affected globally after an increase in the global temperature of about 2·5°C above pre-industrial levels. There is greater variability between climate models for exposures above the threshold for risks to survivability than for risks to workability. The number of people who are likely to be exposed to heat stress exceeding the survivability threshold increases with global temperature change, to reach around 20 million people globally after an increase of about 2·5°C, estimated from the median of the models, but with a large model uncertainty. More people are likely to be exposed to heat stress in urban than in rural areas. Population exposure can fluctuate over time and change substantially within one decade.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Exposure to excessive heat stress is projected to be widespread in tropical or subtropical low-income and middle-income countries, highlighting the need to build on the Paris Agreement regarding global temperature targets, to protect populations who have contributed little to greenhouse gas emissions. The non-linear dependency of heat exposure risk on temperature highlights the importance of understanding thresholds in coupled human-climate systems.<br><br>FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.}, }
@article {pmid30526935, year = {2018}, author = {Landrigan, P and Fuller, R and Haines, A and Watts, N and McCarthy, G}, title = {Pollution prevention and climate change mitigation: measuring the health benefits of comprehensive interventions.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {12}, pages = {e515-e516}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30226-2}, pmid = {30526935}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid30521450, year = {2018}, author = {Beggs, PJ and Zhang, Y}, title = {The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australian policy inaction threatens lives(Summary).}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {209}, number = {11}, pages = {474-475}, pmid = {30521450}, issn = {1326-5377}, }
@article {pmid30521429, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, Y and Beggs, PJ and Bambrick, H and Berry, HL and Linnenluecke, MK and Trueck, S and Alders, R and Bi, P and Boylan, SM and Green, D and Guo, Y and Hanigan, IC and Hanna, EG and Malik, A and Morgan, GG and Stevenson, M and Tong, S and Watts, N and Capon, AG}, title = {The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australian policy inaction threatens lives.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {209}, number = {11}, pages = {474}, pmid = {30521429}, issn = {1326-5377}, abstract = {Climate plays an important role in human health and it is well established that climate change can have very significant impacts in this regard. In partnership with The Lancet and the MJA, we present the inaugural Australian Countdown assessment of progress on climate change and health. This comprehensive assessment examines 41 indicators across five broad sections: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. These indicators and the methods used for each are largely consistent with those of the Lancet Countdown global assessment published in October 2017, but with an Australian focus. Significant developments include the addition of a new indicator on mental health. Overall, we find that Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In a number of respects, Australia has gone backwards and now lags behind other high income countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. Examples include the persistence of a very high carbon-intensive energy system in Australia, and its slow transition to renewables and low carbon electricity generation. However, we also find some examples of good progress, such as heatwave response planning. Given the overall poor state of progress on climate change and health in Australia, this country now has an enormous opportunity to take action and protect human health and lives. Australia has the technical knowhow and intellect to do this, and our annual updates of this assessment will track Australia's engagement with and progress on this vitally important issue.}, }
@article {pmid30518902, year = {2018}, author = {Xu, Y and Ramanathan, V and Victor, DG}, title = {Global warming will happen faster than we think.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {564}, number = {7734}, pages = {30-32}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-07586-5}, pmid = {30518902}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30518295, year = {2019}, author = {Slatin, C}, title = {Climate Change Action Requires Unity Among Movements for Justice and Peace.}, journal = {New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {557-562}, doi = {10.1177/1048291118815900}, pmid = {30518295}, issn = {1541-3772}, }
@article {pmid30518045, year = {2018}, author = {Yu, Q and Wang, F and Yan, W and Zhang, F and Lv, S and Li, Y}, title = {Carbon and Nitrogen Burial and Response to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Disturbance in Chaohu Lake, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15122734}, pmid = {30518045}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; Geologic Sediments/*chemistry ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Lakes/*chemistry ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Lakes are a crucial component of the global carbon and nitrogen cycle. As a trend of enhanced human activities and climate change, the mechanisms of burial remain poorly understood. In this study, diverse biogeochemical techniques were applied to analyze the temporal variation of organic carbon and nitrogen burial rates in Chaohu Lake. The results showed that burial rates have ranged from 9.39 to 35.87 g C m-2 yr-1 for carbon and from 1.66 to 5.67 g N m-2 yr-1 for nitrogen since the 1860s. The average rates were 19.6 g C m-2 yr-1 and 3.14 g N m-2 yr-1 after the 1970s, which were significantly higher than the rate before the 1970s, showing an increasing trend. The decrease of C/N ratios as well as organic matter δ13C values indicates that the major organic matter source in sediment has been algal production since the 1970s. The increase of δ15N values indicated that the promotion in productivity was stimulated by nutrient input from sewage and agricultural runoff. The burial rates of organic carbon and nitrogen were significantly positively related to socio-economics and temperature, indicating that Chaohu Lake will become an increasing carbon and nitrogen pool under conditions of enhanced human activities and intensive precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid30507972, year = {2018}, author = {Olusanya, HO and van Zyll de Jong, M}, title = {Assessing the vulnerability of freshwater fishes to climate change in Newfoundland and Labrador.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e0208182}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0208182}, pmid = {30507972}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Freshwater fish populations are rapidly declining globally due to the impacts of rapid climate change and existing non-climatic anthropogenic stressors. In response to these drivers, freshwater fishes are responding by shifting their distribution range, altering the timing of migration and spawning and through demographic processes. By 2050, the mean daily air temperature is predicted to increase by 2 to 3 degrees C in insular Newfoundland and by 3 to 4 degrees C in Labrador. Mean daily precipitation is also projected to increase in all locations, with increased intensity projected for several regions. To mitigate negative consequences of these changes, managers require analytical approaches that describe the vulnerability of fish to climate change. To address this need, the current study adopts the National Marine Fisheries Service vulnerability assessment framework to characterize the vulnerability of freshwater fishes in Newfoundland and Labrador. Twelve vulnerability indicators were developed from an extensive literature review and applied to the assessment. Experts were solicited using an online questionnaire survey and scores for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were collated and analyzed to derive a final vulnerability score and rank for each species. The analysis showed one species to be of high-very high vulnerability, two species were highly vulnerable while four species were moderately vulnerable to climate change. The result provides insight into the factors that drive vulnerability of freshwater fishes in the region, this information is significant to decision-makers and other stakeholders engaged in managing freshwater fish resources in Newfoundland and Labrador.}, }
@article {pmid30503045, year = {2018}, author = {Watts, N and Amann, M and Arnell, N and Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Belesova, K and Berry, H and Bouley, T and Boykoff, M and Byass, P and Cai, W and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Chambers, J and Daly, M and Dasandi, N and Davies, M and Depoux, A and Dominguez-Salas, P and Drummond, P and Ebi, KL and Ekins, P and Montoya, LF and Fischer, H and Georgeson, L and Grace, D and Graham, H and Hamilton, I and Hartinger, S and Hess, J and Kelman, I and Kiesewetter, G and Kjellstrom, T and Kniveton, D and Lemke, B and Liang, L and Lott, M and Lowe, R and Sewe, MO and Martinez-Urtaza, J and Maslin, M and McAllister, L and Mikhaylov, SJ and Milner, J and Moradi-Lakeh, M and Morrissey, K and Murray, K and Nilsson, M and Neville, T and Oreszczyn, T and Owfi, F and Pearman, O and Pencheon, D and Pye, S and Rabbaniha, M and Robinson, E and Rocklöv, J and Saxer, O and Schütte, S and Semenza, JC and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Steinbach, R and Tabatabaei, M and Tomei, J and Trinanes, J and Wheeler, N and Wilkinson, P and Gong, P and Montgomery, H and Costello, A}, title = {The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {392}, number = {10163}, pages = {2479-2514}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32594-7}, pmid = {30503045}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change/economics ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Environmental Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Financing, Organized ; *Global Health ; Health Planning/economics ; *Health Policy ; Health Services Research ; Humans ; Politics ; Public Health ; Renewable Energy ; Research Report ; }, }
@article {pmid30503043, year = {2018}, author = {The Lancet, }, title = {Humanising health and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {392}, number = {10162}, pages = {2326}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)33016-2}, pmid = {30503043}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Humanism ; }, }
@article {pmid30515228, year = {2018}, author = {Hess, JJ and Lm, S and Knowlton, K and Saha, S and Dutta, P and Ganguly, P and Tiwari, A and Jaiswal, A and Sheffield, P and Sarkar, J and Bhan, SC and Begda, A and Shah, T and Solanki, B and Mavalankar, D}, title = {Building Resilience to Climate Change: Pilot Evaluation of the Impact of India's First Heat Action Plan on All-Cause Mortality.}, journal = {Journal of environmental and public health}, volume = {2018}, number = {}, pages = {7973519}, pmid = {30515228}, issn = {1687-9813}, support = {K23 ES024127/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R21 TW009535/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Humans ; India ; *Mortality ; Pilot Projects ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Background: Ahmedabad implemented South Asia's first heat action plan (HAP) after a 2010 heatwave. This study evaluates the HAP's impact on all-cause mortality in 2014-2015 relative to a 2007-2010 baseline.<br><br>Methods: We analyzed daily maximum temperature (Tmax)-mortality relationships before and after HAP. We estimated rate ratios (RRs) for daily mortality using distributed lag nonlinear models and mortality incidence rates (IRs) for HAP warning days, comparing pre- and post-HAP periods, and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs). We estimated the number of deaths avoided after HAP implementation using pre- and post-HAP IRs.<br><br>Results: The maximum pre-HAP RR was 2.34 (95%CI 1.98-2.76) at 47°C (lag 0), and the maximum post-HAP RR was 1.25 (1.02-1.53) estimated at 47°C (lag 0). Post-to-pre-HAP nonlagged mortality IRR for Tmax over 40°C was 0.95 (0.73-1.22) and 0.73 (0.29-1.81) for Tmax over 45°C. An estimated 1,190 (95%CI 162-2,218) average annualized deaths were avoided in the post-HAP period.<br><br>Conclusion: Extreme heat and HAP warnings after implementation were associated with decreased summertime all-cause mortality rates, with largest declines at highest temperatures. Ahmedabad's plan can serve as a guide for other cities attempting to increase resilience to extreme heat.}, }
@article {pmid30504017, year = {2019}, author = {Sarkodie, SA and Strezov, V}, title = {Economic, social and governance adaptation readiness for mitigation of climate change vulnerability: Evidence from 192 countries.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {656}, number = {}, pages = {150-164}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.349}, pmid = {30504017}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Adaptation strategies have become critical in climate change mitigation and impact reduction, to safeguard population and the ecosystem from irreparable damage. While developed countries have integrated adaptation plans and policies into their developmental agenda, developing countries are facilitating or yet to initiate adaptation policies in their development. This study examines the nexus between climate change vulnerability and adaptation readiness in 192 UN countries using mapping and panel data models. The study reveals Africa as the most vulnerable continent to climate change with high sensitivity, high exposure, and low adaptive capacity. Developed countries, including Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Sweden, United Kingdom, Finland, France, Spain, and Germany, are less vulnerable to climate change due to strong economic, governance and social adaptation readiness. International commitment from developed countries to developing countries is essential to strengthen their resilience, economic readiness and adaptive capacity to climate-related events.}, }
@article {pmid30512074, year = {2018}, author = {Mukundan, R and Scheerer, M and Gelda, RK and Owens, EM}, title = {Probabilistic Estimation of Stream Turbidity and Application under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {6}, pages = {1522-1529}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2018.06.0229}, pmid = {30512074}, issn = {0047-2425}, abstract = {Streamflow-based rating curves are widely used to estimate turbidity or suspended sediment concentrations in streams. However, such estimates are often inaccurate at the event scale due to inter- and intra-event variability in sediment-streamflow relationships. In this study, we use a quantile regression approach to derive a probabilistic distribution of turbidity predictions for Esopus Creek, a major stream in one of the watersheds that supply drinking water to New York City, using measured daily mean streamflow-turbidity data pairs for 2003 to 2016. Although a single regression curve can underpredict or overpredict the actual observation, quantile regression can estimate a range of possible turbidity values for a given value of streamflow. Regression relationships for various quantiles were applied to streamflows simulated by a watershed model to predict stream turbidity under: (i) the observed historical climate, and (ii) a future climate derived from 20 global climate model (GCM) scenarios. Future scenarios using quantile regression in combination with these GCMs and a stochastic weather generator indicated an increase in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological events that may generate high stream turbidity and cause potential water quality challenges to the water supply. The methods outlined in this study can be used for probabilistic estimation of stream turbidity for operational decisions and can be part of a vulnerability-based method to explore climate impacts on water resources.}, }
@article {pmid30511643, year = {2018}, author = {Bjornsson, H}, title = {[Climate change and health].}, journal = {Laeknabladid}, volume = {104}, number = {12}, pages = {539}, doi = {10.17992/lbl.2018.12.205}, pmid = {30511643}, issn = {0023-7213}, }
@article {pmid30511479, year = {2019}, author = {Arshad, S and Ahmad, M and Saboor, A and Ibrahim, FH and Mustafa, MRU and Zafar, M and Ashfaq, S}, title = {Role of trees in climate change and their authentication through scanning electron microscopy.}, journal = {Microscopy research and technique}, volume = {82}, number = {2}, pages = {92-100}, doi = {10.1002/jemt.23106}, pmid = {30511479}, issn = {1097-0029}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Microscopy, Electron, Scanning ; Pakistan ; Seeds/classification/ultrastructure ; Trees/*classification/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the most realistic theory of this era. Sudden and drastic changes are happening on the earth and the survival of mankind is becoming questionable in the future. The plants play the key role in controlling the climate change. The study emphasizes on role of trees in the cop up or damaging the climate of this earth, whether they are medicinal trees or economically important trees. Due to the overgrazing and intense deforestation the climate is being affected hazardously. The global warming phenomenon is occurring due to the less availability of trees and more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In total 20 plants were collected from across the Pakistan on the basis of their abundance and their key roles. Out of which seeds of eight plants were scanned through scanning electron microscope for correct authentication and importance of these medicinally important trees in mitigating the climate change. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS: The role of forest sector in the climate's change mitigation. Medicinally and economically important tree species across Pakistan. By using SEM, Ultra seed sculpturing features as an authentication tool. To formulate some policies to stop or control deforestation.}, }
@article {pmid30509907, year = {2018}, author = {Olson, JR}, title = {Predicting combined effects of land use and climate change on river and stream salinity.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1764}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0005}, pmid = {30509907}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Agricultural, industrial and urban development have all contributed to increased salinity in streams and rivers, but the likely effects of future development and climate change are unknown. I developed two empirical models to estimate how these combined effects might affect salinity by the end of this century (measured as electrical conductivity, EC). The first model predicts natural background from static (e.g. geology and soils) and dynamic (i.e. climate and vegetation) environmental factors and explained 78% of the variation in EC. I then compared the estimated background EC with current measurements at 2001 sites chosen probabilistically from all conterminous USA streams. EC was more than 50% greater at 34% of these sites. The second model predicts deviation of EC from background as a function of human land use and environmental factors and explained 60% of the variation in alteration from background. I then predicted the effects of climate and land use change on EC at the end of the century by replacing dynamic variables with published projections of future conditions based on the A2 emissions scenario. By the end of the century, the median EC is predicted to increase from 0.319 mS cm-1 to 0.524 mS cm-1 with over 50% of streams having greater than 50% increases in EC and 35% more than doubling their EC. Most of the change is related to increases in human land use, with climate change accounting for only 12% of the increase. In extreme cases, increased salinity may make water unsuitable for human use, but widespread moderate increases are likely a greater threat to stream ecosystems owing to the elimination of low EC habitats.This article is part of the theme issue 'Salt in freshwaters: causes, ecological consequences and future prospects'.}, }
@article {pmid30509906, year = {2018}, author = {Le, TDH and Kattwinkel, M and Schützenmeister, K and Olson, JR and Hawkins, CP and Schäfer, RB}, title = {Predicting current and future background ion concentrations in German surface water under climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1764}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0004}, pmid = {30509906}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Salinization of surface waters is a global environmental issue that can pose a regional risk to freshwater organisms, potentially leading to high environmental and economic costs. Global environmental change including climate and land use change can increase the transport of ions into surface waters. We fit both multiple linear regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models on a large spatial dataset to predict Ca2+ (266 sites), Mg2+ (266 sites), and [Formula: see text] (357 sites) ion concentrations as well as electrical conductivity (EC-a proxy for total dissolved solids with 410 sites) in German running water bodies. Predictions in both types of models were driven by the major factors controlling salinity including geologic and soil properties, climate, vegetation and topography. The predictive power of the two types of models was very similar, with RF explaining 71-76% of the spatial variation in ion concentrations and LR explaining 70-75% of the variance. Mean squared errors for predictions were all smaller than 0.06. The factors most strongly associated with stream ion concentrations varied among models but rock chemistry and climate were the most dominant. The RF model was subsequently used to forecast the changes in EC that were likely to occur for the period of 2070 to 2100 in response to just climate change-i.e. no additional effects of other anthropogenic activities. The future forecasting shows approximately 10% and 15% increases in mean EC for representative concentration pathways 2.6 and 8.5 (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios, respectively.This article is part of the theme issue 'Salt in freshwaters: causes, ecological consequences and future prospects'.}, }
@article {pmid30509664, year = {2018}, author = {Diele-Viegas, LM and Rocha, CFD}, title = {Unraveling the influences of climate change in Lepidosauria (Reptilia).}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {78}, number = {}, pages = {401-414}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2018.11.005}, pmid = {30509664}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Body Temperature ; *Climate Change ; Reptiles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans and many species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances and interactions in response to these changes. Projections of future climate change are uncertain, but the Earth's warming is likely to exceed 4.8 °C by the end of 21th century. The vulnerability of a population, species, group or system due to climate change is a function of impact of the changes on the evaluated system (exposure and sensitivity) and adaptive capacity as a response to this impact, and the relationship between these elements will determine the degree of species vulnerability. Predicting the potential future risks to biodiversity caused by climate change has become an extremely active field of research, and several studies in the last two decades had focused on determining possible impacts of climate change on Lepidosaurians, at a global, regional and local level. Here we conducted a systematic review of published studies in order to seek to what extent the accumulated knowledge currently allow us to identify potential trends or patterns regarding climate change effects on lizards, snakes, amphisbaenians and tuatara. We conducted a literature search among online literature databases/catalogues and recorded 255 studies addressing the influence of climate change on a total of 1918 species among 49 Lepidosaurian's families. The first study addressing this subject is dated 1999. Most of the studies focused on species distribution, followed by thermal biology, reproductive biology, behavior and genetics. We concluded that an integrative approach including most of these characteristics and also bioclimatic and environmental variables, may lead to consistent and truly effective strategies for species conservation, aiming to buffer the climate change effects on this group of reptiles.}, }
@article {pmid30498774, year = {2018}, author = {Dahlke, FT and Butzin, M and Nahrgang, J and Puvanendran, V and Mortensen, A and Pörtner, HO and Storch, D}, title = {Northern cod species face spawning habitat losses if global warming exceeds 1.5°C.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {11}, pages = {eaas8821}, pmid = {30498774}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Rapid climate change in the Northeast Atlantic and Arctic poses a threat to some of the world's largest fish populations. Impacts of warming and acidification may become accessible through mechanism-based risk assessments and projections of future habitat suitability. We show that ocean acidification causes a narrowing of embryonic thermal ranges, which identifies the suitability of spawning habitats as a critical life-history bottleneck for two abundant cod species. Embryonic tolerance ranges linked to climate simulations reveal that ever-increasing CO2 emissions [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5] will deteriorate suitability of present spawning habitat for both Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) by 2100. Moderate warming (RCP4.5) may avert dangerous climate impacts on Atlantic cod but still leaves few spawning areas for the more vulnerable Polar cod, which also loses the benefits of an ice-covered ocean. Emissions following RCP2.6, however, support largely unchanged habitat suitability for both species, suggesting that risks are minimized if warming is held &quot;below 2°C, if not 1.5°C,&quot; as pledged by the Paris Agreement.}, }
@article {pmid30498339, year = {2018}, author = {Hoffmann, C and Hanisch, M and Heinsohn, JB and Dostal, V and Jehn, M and Liebers, U and Pankow, W and Donaldson, GC and Witt, C}, title = {Increased vulnerability of COPD patient groups to urban climate in view of global warming.}, journal = {International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {3493-3501}, pmid = {30498339}, issn = {1178-2005}, abstract = {Purpose: Patients with COPD show an increase in acute exacerbations (AECOPD) during the cold season as well as during heat waves in the summer months. Due to global climate changes, extreme weather conditions are likely to occur more frequently in the future. The goal of this study was to identify patient groups most at risk of exacerbations during the four seasons of the year and to determine at which temperature threshold the daily hospital admissions due to AECOPD increase during the summer.<br><br>Patients and methods: We analyzed retrospective demographic and medical data of 990 patients, who were hospitalized for AECOPD in Berlin, Germany. The cases were grouped into the following cohorts: &quot;spring&quot; (admission between March and May), &quot;summer&quot; (June - August), &quot;autumn&quot; (September - November), and &quot;winter&quot; (December - February). AECOPD hospital admissions from 2006 and 2010 were grouped into a &quot;hot summer&quot; cohort and cases from 2011 and 2012 into a &quot;cold summer&quot; data-set. Climate data were obtained from the German Meteorological Office.<br><br>Results: Patients hospitalized for a COPD exacerbation during winter were significantly older than summertime patients (P=0.040) and also thinner than patients exacerbating in spring (P=0.042). COPD exacerbations during hot summer periods happened more often to patients with a history of myocardial infarction (P=0.014) or active smokers (P=0.011). An AECOPD during colder summers occurred in patients with a higher Charlson index, who suffered in increased numbers from peripheral vascular diseases (P=0.016) or tumors (P=0.004). Summertime hospital admissions increased above a daily minimum temperature of 18.3°C (P=0.006).<br><br>Conclusion: The identification of COPD patient groups most at risk for climate related exacerbations enables climate-adapted prevention through patient guidance and treatment. In view of global climate changes, discovering vulnerabilities and implementing adaptive measures will be of growing importance.}, }
@article {pmid30497656, year = {2018}, author = {Arabena, K and Armstrong, F and Berry, H and Brooks, P and Capon, T and Crabb, B and Demaio, A and Doherty, P and Lewin, S and Lo, S and Lopez, A and McMichael, C and McPake, B and Moodie, R and Nolan, T and Ruff, T and Sainsbury, P and Selvey, L and Shearman, D and Stanley, F and Talley, NJ and Watts, N}, title = {Australian health professionals' statement on climate change and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {392}, number = {10160}, pages = {2169-2170}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32610-2}, pmid = {30497656}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid30496047, year = {2018}, author = {Figueres, C and Landrigan, PJ and Fuller, R}, title = {Tackling air pollution, climate change, and NCDs: time to pull together.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {392}, number = {10157}, pages = {1502-1503}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32740-5}, pmid = {30496047}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; Noncommunicable Diseases/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid30487170, year = {2018}, author = {Wise, J}, title = {Climate change is outpacing response, warn experts.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {k5018}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.k5018}, pmid = {30487170}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid30486282, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, L and Liao, W and Liu, C and Zhang, N and Zhong, S and Huang, C}, title = {Associations between Knowledge of the Causes and Perceived Impacts of Climate Change: A Cross-Sectional Survey of Medical, Public Health and Nursing Students in Universities in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15122650}, pmid = {30486282}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; China ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; *Health Impact Assessment ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Male ; Public Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Students, Medical/*psychology/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Students, Nursing/*psychology/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Universities ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to measure the knowledge and perceptions of medical, public health, and nursing students about climate change and its impacts, and to identify associations between the knowledge and perceptions. Data were from a nationwide cross-sectional survey of 1387 students sampled in five different regional universities in China (April⁻May 2017). The knowledge and perceptions of the participants were collected by self-administered questionnaires. We found that most respondents believed that climate change is generally &quot;bad&quot; (83%) and bad for human health (88%), while 67% believed that climate change is controllable. The vast majority of respondents acknowledged illness conditions resulting from poor air quality (95%), heat stress (93%), and extreme weather events (91%) as potential impacts of climate change. Nevertheless, only 39% recognized malnutrition as a consequence of food deprivation resulting from climate change. Around 58% of respondents could correctly identify the causes of climate change. The knowledge of the causes of climate change was not associated with the ability to recognize the health consequences of climate change. However, the knowledge of causes of climate change was a significant predictor of increased awareness of the negative impacts of climate change between the medical and nursing students, although this was not the case among their public health counterparts. Poor knowledge about the causes of climate change is evident among students in China. They are able to recognize the direct links between weather events and health, but less likely to understand the consequences involving complicated pathways. Research and training into the underlying mechanisms of health impacts of climate change needs to be strengthened.}, }
@article {pmid30486244, year = {2018}, author = {Rakotoarison, N and Raholijao, N and Razafindramavo, LM and Rakotomavo, ZAPH and Rakotoarisoa, A and Guillemot, JS and Randriamialisoa, ZJ and Mafilaza, V and Ramiandrisoa, VAMP and Rajaonarivony, R and Andrianjafinirina, S and Tata, V and Vololoniaina, MC and Rakotomanana, F and Raminosoa, VM}, title = {Assessment of Risk, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change by the Health Sector in Madagascar.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15122643}, pmid = {30486244}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Diarrhea/epidemiology ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Incidence ; Madagascar/epidemiology ; Malaria/epidemiology ; Malnutrition/epidemiology ; Population Surveillance/*methods ; Public Health Surveillance/*methods ; Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Madagascar is cited as one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change, with significant impacts to the health of its population. In this study, the vulnerability of Madagascar's health sector to climate change was assessed and appropriate adaptation measures were identified. In order to assess climate risks, vulnerability and identify adaptation options, the Madagascar Ministry of Public Health as well as the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service worked in close collaboration with a team of local experts to conduct a literature review, field surveys, and analyses of current and future climate and health trends. Four climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern are described in the study: acute respiratory infections (ARI), diarrhea, malnutrition, and malaria. Baseline conditions of these four diseases from 2000 to 2014 show acute respiratory infections and diarrheal diseases are increasing in incidence; while incidence of malnutrition and malaria decreased over this period. To assess future impacts in Madagascar, this baseline information was used with climate projections for the two scenarios-RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5-for the periods 2016⁻2035, 2036⁻2070 and 2071⁻2100. Future climate conditions are shown to exacerbate and increase the incidence of all four climate sensitive diseases. Further analysis of the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to the climate hazards suggests that the health sector in four regions of Madagascar is particularly vulnerable. The study recommends adaptation measures to improve the monitoring and early warning systems for climate sensitive diseases, as well as to reduce population vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid30484936, year = {2019}, author = {Cohen, JM and Civitello, DJ and Venesky, MD and McMahon, TA and Rohr, JR}, title = {An interaction between climate change and infectious disease drove widespread amphibian declines.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {927-937}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14489}, pmid = {30484936}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {R01GM109499/NH/NIH HHS/United States ; R01TW010286-01/NH/NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change might drive species declines by altering species interactions, such as host-parasite interactions. However, few studies have combined experiments, field data, and historical climate records to provide evidence that an interaction between climate change and disease caused any host declines. A recently proposed hypothesis, the thermal mismatch hypothesis, could identify host species that are vulnerable to disease under climate change because it predicts that cool- and warm-adapted hosts should be vulnerable to disease at unusually warm and cool temperatures, respectively. Here, we conduct experiments on Atelopus zeteki, a critically endangered, captively bred frog that prefers relatively cool temperatures, and show that frogs have high pathogen loads and high mortality rates only when exposed to a combination of the pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) and high temperatures, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Further, we tested various hypotheses to explain recent declines experienced by species in the amphibian genus Atelopus that are thought to be associated with B. dendrobatidis and reveal that these declines are best explained by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. As in our experiments, only the combination of rapid increases in temperature and infectious disease could account for the patterns of declines, especially in species adapted to relatively cool environments. After combining experiments on declining hosts with spatiotemporal patterns in the field, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that widespread species declines, including possible extinctions, have been driven by an interaction between increasing temperatures and infectious disease. Moreover, our findings suggest that hosts adapted to relatively cool conditions will be most vulnerable to the combination of increases in mean temperature and emerging infectious diseases.}, }
@article {pmid30483276, year = {2018}, author = {Henn, JJ and Buzzard, V and Enquist, BJ and Halbritter, AH and Klanderud, K and Maitner, BS and Michaletz, ST and Pötsch, C and Seltzer, L and Telford, RJ and Yang, Y and Zhang, L and Vandvik, V}, title = {Intraspecific Trait Variation and Phenotypic Plasticity Mediate Alpine Plant Species Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1548}, pmid = {30483276}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {In a rapidly changing climate, alpine plants may persist by adapting to new conditions. However, the rate at which the climate is changing might exceed the rate of adaptation through evolutionary processes in long-lived plants. Persistence may depend on phenotypic plasticity in morphology and physiology. Here we investigated patterns of leaf trait variation including leaf area, leaf thickness, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nutrients (C, N, P) and isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) across an elevation gradient on Gongga Mountain, Sichuan Province, China. We quantified inter- and intra-specific trait variation and the plasticity in leaf traits of selected species to experimental warming and cooling by using a reciprocal transplantation approach. We found substantial phenotypic plasticity in most functional traits where δ15N, leaf area, and leaf P showed greatest plasticity. These traits did not correspond with traits with the largest amount of intraspecific variation. Plasticity in leaf functional traits tended to enable plant populations to shift their trait values toward the mean values of a transplanted plants' destination community, but only if that population started with very different trait values. These results suggest that leaf trait plasticity is an important mechanism for enabling plants to persist within communities and to better tolerate changing environmental conditions under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30477122, year = {2018}, author = {Berry, P and Enright, PM and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Villalobos Prats, E and Campbell-Lendrum, D}, title = {Assessing Health Vulnerabilities and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Review of International Progress.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph15122626}, pmid = {30477122}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; Internationality ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasing risks to human health and to the health systems that seek to protect the safety and well-being of populations. Health authorities require information about current associations between health outcomes and weather or climate, vulnerable populations, projections of future risks and adaptation opportunities in order to reduce exposures, empower individuals to take needed protective actions and build climate-resilient health systems. An increasing number of health authorities from local to national levels seek this information by conducting climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments. While assessments can provide valuable information to plan for climate change impacts, the results of many studies are not helping to build the global evidence-base of knowledge in this area. They are also often not integrated into adaptation decision making, sometimes because the health sector is not involved in climate change policy making processes at the national level. Significant barriers related to data accessibility, a limited number of climate and health models, uncertainty in climate projections, and a lack of funding and expertise, particularly in developing countries, challenge health authority efforts to conduct rigorous assessments and apply the findings. This paper examines the evolution of climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments, including guidance developed for such projects, the number of assessments that have been conducted globally and implementation of the findings to support health adaptation action. Greater capacity building that facilitates assessments from local to national scales will support collaborative efforts to protect health from current climate hazards and future climate change. Health sector officials will benefit from additional resources and partnership opportunities to ensure that evidence about climate change impacts on health is effectively translated into needed actions to build health resilience.}, }
@article {pmid30476829, year = {2019}, author = {Koutroulis, AG}, title = {Dryland changes under different levels of global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {655}, number = {}, pages = {482-511}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.215}, pmid = {30476829}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Drylands are vital ecosystems which cover almost 47% of the Earth's surface, hosting 39% of the global population. Dryland areas are highly sensitive to climatic changes and substantial impacts are foreseen under a warming climate. Many studies have examined the evolution of drylands in the future highlighting the need for improved capability of climate models to simulate aridity. The present study takes advantage of new higher resolution climate projections by the HadGEM3A Atmosphere Global Climate Model using prescribed time varying SSTs and sea ice, provided by a range of CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5. The aim of the higher resolution models is to examine the benefit of the improved representation of atmospheric processes in the dryland research and to see where these results lie in the range of results from previous studies using the original CMIP5 ensemble. The transient response of aridity from the recent past until the end of the 21st century was examined as well as the expansion of global drylands under specific levels of global warming (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C). Dryland changes were further assessed at the watershed level for a number of major global river basins to discuss implications on hydrological changes and land degradation. The areal coverage of drylands could increase by an additional 7% of the global land surface by 2100 under high end climate change. At a 4 °C warmer world above pre-industrial, 11.2% of global land area is projected to shift towards drier types and 4.24% to wetter. At the same level of warming the number of humans projected to live in drylands varies between 3.3 and 5.2 billion, depending on the socioeconomic developments. By keeping global warming levels to 1.5 °C, up to 1.9 billion people could avoid living in drylands compared to a 4 °C warmer world of low environmental concern.}, }
@article {pmid30473865, year = {2018}, author = {Dietl, GP and Nagel-Myers, J and Aronson, RB}, title = {Indirect effects of climate change altered the cannibalistic behaviour of shell-drilling gastropods in Antarctica during the Eocene.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {5}, number = {10}, pages = {181446}, pmid = {30473865}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {The fossil record from Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula, provides a record of biotic response to the onset of global climatic cooling during the Eocene. Using drilling traces-small, round holes preserved on prey shells-we examined the effect of a cooling pulse 41 Ma on the cannibalistic behaviour of predatory naticid gastropods. We predicted that cannibalistic attacks would decline in response to the cooling climate, reflecting reduced activity levels, energy requirements and constraints on the chemically aided drilling process of the naticids. Surprisingly, however, cannibalism frequencies did not change. This counterintuitive result is best explained by a sharp reduction in durophagous (shell-crushing) predation in shallow-benthic communities in Antarctica that also occurred as the climate cooled. Reduced durophagous predation may have created a less-risky environment for foraging naticids, stimulating cannibalistic behaviour. The change in the top-down control exerted by shell-crushing predators on naticids may have counteracted the direct, negative effects of declining temperatures on the predatory performance of naticids. Our results suggest that the long-term consequences of climate change cannot be predicted solely from its direct effects on predation, because the temperature can have large indirect effects on consumer-resource interactions, especially where risk-effects dominate.}, }
@article {pmid30473757, year = {2018}, author = {Terblanche-Greeff, AC and Dokken, JV and van Niekerk, D and Loubser, RA}, title = {Cultural beliefs of time orientation and social self-construal: Influences on climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {510}, pmid = {30473757}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the greatest challenges humankind faces and adaptive behaviour is an imperative response to such change. Culture and the resulting worldview are determinants of behaviour and eminent cultural beliefs are that of time orientation (TO) and social self-construal (SSC). To date, no research focuses on these beliefs from an indigenous South African perspective or the manner in which it may subsequently affect a community's adaptation towards climate change. Q-methodology was used to study perspectives and beliefs in three peri-urban communities in South Africa and to investigate the interrelation between themes such as TO, SSC, climate change awareness and climate change causality. It became apparent that the communities are aware of climate change, yet little to no efforts are currently being made to adapt to climatic change. This absence of motivation to adapt may be attributed to limited risk perception and cultural beliefs of TO and SSC. This study aims to contribute to the understanding of cultural beliefs and its impact on climate change adaptation behaviour in the South African context. It is concluded that TO and SSC from an indigenous South African perspective influence community adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30473756, year = {2018}, author = {Schuman, S and Dokken, JV and van Niekerk, D and Loubser, RA}, title = {Religious beliefs and climate change adaptation: A study of three rural South African communities.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {509}, pmid = {30473756}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This article argues that religious beliefs significantly influence a community's understanding and experience of climate change adaptation, indicating the need for an inclusion of such information in climate change adaptation education. Data were collected using the Q-method, whereby recurring statements were identified from semi-structured interviews with participants from three rural communities in the North-West province of South Africa: Ikageng, Ventersdorp and Jouberton. The research found that community members who regard themselves as religious (overall of the Christian faith) fall under two groups: the religious determinists or fatalists, who see climate as a natural process that is governed by God, and religious participants who deny this 'naturalness' and acknowledge humans' impact on the climate.}, }
@article {pmid30473737, year = {2018}, author = {Dumic, I and Severnini, E}, title = {&quot;Ticking Bomb&quot;: The Impact of Climate Change on the Incidence of Lyme Disease.}, journal = {The Canadian journal of infectious diseases &amp; medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale}, volume = {2018}, number = {}, pages = {5719081}, pmid = {30473737}, issn = {1712-9532}, abstract = {Lyme disease (LD) is the most common tick-borne disease in North America. It is caused by Borrelia burgdorferi and transmitted to humans by blacklegged ticks, Ixodes scapularis. The life cycle of the LD vector, I. scapularis, usually takes two to three years to complete and goes through three stages, all of which are dependent on environmental factors. Increases in daily average temperatures, a manifestation of climate change, might have contributed to an increase in tick abundance via higher rates of tick survival. Additionally, these environmental changes might have contributed to better host availability, which is necessary for tick feeding and life cycle completion. In fact, it has been shown that both tick activity and survival depend on temperature and humidity. In this study, we have examined the relationship between those climatic variables and the reported incidence of LD in 15 states that contribute to more than 95% of reported cases within the Unites States. Using fixed effects analysis for a panel of 468 U.S. counties from those high-incidence states with annual data available for the period 2000-2016, we have found sizable impacts of temperature on the incidence of LD. Those impacts can be described approximately by an inverted U-shaped relationship, consistent with patterns of tick survival and host-seeking behavior. Assuming a 2°C increase in annual average temperature-in line with mid-century (2036-2065) projections from the latest U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA4)-we have predicted that the number of LD cases in the United States will increase by over 20 percent in the coming decades. These findings may help improving preparedness and response by clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers, as well as raising public awareness of the importance of being cautious when engaging in outdoor activities.}, }
@article {pmid30473301, year = {2019}, author = {Lu, X and Lu, Y and Chen, D and Su, C and Song, S and Wang, T and Tian, H and Liang, R and Zhang, M and Khan, K}, title = {Climate change induced eutrophication of cold-water lake in an ecologically fragile nature reserve.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {75}, number = {}, pages = {359-369}, doi = {10.1016/j.jes.2018.05.018}, pmid = {30473301}, issn = {1001-0742}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Eutrophication ; *Lakes ; }, abstract = {Aquatic ecosystem sustainability around the globe is facing crucial challenges because of increasing anthropogenic and natural disturbances. In this study, the Tianchi Lake, a typical cold-water lake and a UNESCO/MAB (Man and Biosphere) nature reserve located in high latitude and elevation with the relatively low intensity of human activity was chosen as a system to examine the linkages between climate change and eutrophication. As a part of the UNESCO Bogda Man and Biosphere Reserve, Tianchi Lake has been well preserved for prevention from human intervention, but why has it been infected with eutrophication recent years? Our results show that climate change played a significant role in the eutrophication in the Tianchi Lake. Increased temperature, changed precipitation pattern and wind-induced hydrodynamic fluctuations in the summer season were suggested to make a major contribution to the accelerated eutrophication. The results also showed that the local temperature and precipitation changes were closely linked to the large-scale atmospheric circulation, which opens the door for the method to be applied in other regions without local climatic information. This study suggests that there is an urgent need to take into consideration of climate change adaptation into the conservation and management of cold-water lakes globally.}, }
@article {pmid30472516, year = {2019}, author = {Austin, SE and Ford, JD and Berrang-Ford, L and Biesbroek, R and Ross, NA}, title = {Enabling local public health adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {220}, number = {}, pages = {236-244}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2018.11.002}, pmid = {30472516}, issn = {1873-5347}, abstract = {Local public health authorities often lack the capacity to adapt to climate change, despite being on the 'front lines' of climate impacts. Upper-level governments are well positioned to create an enabling environment for adaptation and build local public health authorities' capacity, yet adaptation literature has not specified how upper-level governments can build local-level adaptive capacity. In this paper we examine how federal and regional governments can contribute to enabling and supporting public health adaptation to climate change at the local level in federal systems. We outline the local level's self-assessed adaptive capacity for public health adaptation in Canadian and German comparative case studies, in terms of funding, knowledge and skills, organizations, and prioritization, drawing upon 30 semi-structured interviews. Based on interviewees' recommendations and complemented by scientific literature, we develop a set of practical measures that could enable or support local-level public health adaptation. We find that adaptive capacity varies widely between local public health authorities, but most report having insufficient funding and staff for adaptation activities. We propose 10 specific measures upper-level governments can take to build local public health authorities' capacity for adaptation, under the interrelated target areas of: building financial capital; developing and disseminating usable knowledge; collaborating and coordinating for shared knowledge; and claiming leadership. Federal and regional governments have an important role to play in enabling local-level public health adaptation, and have many instruments available to them to fulfill that role. Selecting and implementing measures to enable local public health authorities' adaptive capacity will require tailoring to, and consideration, of the local context and needs.}, }
@article {pmid30469066, year = {2019}, author = {Thomas, P and Büntgen, U}, title = {A risk assessment of Europe's black truffle sector under predicted climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {655}, number = {}, pages = {27-34}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.252}, pmid = {30469066}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agaricales/*growth &amp; development ; *Agriculture ; Ascomycota/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; France ; Italy ; Risk Assessment ; Spain ; }, abstract = {The black truffle (Tuber melanosporum) is a highly revered culinary icon species that grows symbiotically with its host trees across several parts of southern Europe. Where harvested under natural or cultivated conditions, truffles can have a significant socioeconomic impact and may even form a key component of cultural identity. Although some aspects of truffle biology and ecology have been elucidated recently, the role of abiotic, environmental and climatic factors in the production and maturation of their fruitbodies is still largely unknown. Based on 36-year-long, continuous records of Mediterranean truffle yield, we demonstrate that decreased summer precipitation together with increased summer temperatures significantly reduce the fungus' subsequent winter harvest. Using state-of-the-art climate model projections, we predict that a significant decline of 78-100% in southern European truffle production is likely to occur between 2071 and 2100. The additional threats of forecasted heatwaves, forest fires, pest and disease outbreaks are discussed along with socioeconomic and ecological consequences of a warmer and dryer future climate. Our results emphasize the need for unravelling the direct and indirect effects of climate change on Europe's truffle sector and underline the importance of conservation initiatives at local to international scales.}, }
@article {pmid30466147, year = {2019}, author = {Zhou, G and Luo, Q and Chen, Y and He, M and Zhou, L and Frank, D and He, Y and Fu, Y and Zhang, B and Zhou, X}, title = {Effects of livestock grazing on grassland carbon storage and release override impacts associated with global climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {1119-1132}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14533}, pmid = {30466147}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Predicting future carbon (C) dynamics in grassland ecosystems requires knowledge of how grazing and global climate change (e.g., warming, elevated CO2 , increased precipitation, drought, and N fertilization) interact to influence C storage and release. Here, we synthesized data from 223 grassland studies to quantify the individual and interactive effects of herbivores and climate change on ecosystem C pools and soil respiration (Rs). Our results showed that grazing overrode global climate change factors in regulating grassland C storage and release (i.e., Rs). Specifically, grazing significantly decreased aboveground plant C pool (APCP), belowground plant C pool (BPCP), soil C pool (SCP), and Rs by 19.1%, 6.4%, 3.1%, and 4.6%, respectively, while overall effects of all global climate change factors increased APCP, BPCP, and Rs by 6.5%, 15.3%, and 3.4% but had no significant effect on SCP. However, the combined effects of grazing with global climate change factors also significantly decreased APCP, SCP, and Rs by 4.0%, 4.7%, and 2.7%, respectively but had no effect on BPCP. Most of the interactions between grazing and global climate change factors on APCP, BPCP, SCP, and Rs were additive instead of synergistic or antagonistic. Our findings highlight the dominant effects of grazing on C storage and Rs when compared with the suite of global climate change factors. Therefore, incorporating the dominant effect of herbivore grazing into Earth System Models is necessary to accurately predict climate-grassland feedbacks in the Anthropocene.}, }
@article {pmid30464832, year = {2018}, author = {Elayadeth-Meethal, M and Thazhathu Veettil, A and Maloney, SK and Hawkins, N and Misselbrook, TH and Sejian, V and Rivero, MJ and Lee, MRF}, title = {Size does matter: Parallel evolution of adaptive thermal tolerance and body size facilitates adaptation to climate change in domestic cattle.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {21}, pages = {10608-10620}, pmid = {30464832}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The adaptive potential of livestock under a warming climate is increasingly relevant in relation to the growing pressure of global food security. Studies on heat tolerance demonstrate the interplay of adaptation and acclimatization in functional traits, for example, a reduction in body size and enhanced tolerance in response to a warming climate. However, current lack of understanding of functional traits and phylogenetic history among phenotypically distinct populations constrains predictions of climate change impact. Here, we demonstrate evidence of parallel evolution in adaptive tolerance to heat stress in dwarf cattle breeds (DCB, Bos taurus indicus) and compare their thermoregulatory responses with those in standard size cattle breeds (SCB, crossbred, Bos taurus indicus × Bos taurus taurus). We measured vital physiological, hematological, biochemical, and gene expression changes in DCB and SCB and compared the molecular phylogeny using mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) analysis. Our results show that SCB can acclimatize in the short term to higher temperatures but reach their tolerance limit under prevailing tropical conditions, while DCB is adapted to the warmer climate. Increased hemoglobin concentration, reduced cellular size, and smaller body size enhance thermal tolerance. Mitogenome analysis revealed that different lineages of DCB have evolved reduced size independently, as a parallel adaptation to heat stress. The results illustrate mechanistic ways of dwarfing, body size-dependent tolerance, and differential fitness in a large mammal species under harsh field conditions, providing a background for comparing similar populations during global climate change. These demonstrate the value of studies combining functional, physiological, and evolutionary approaches to delineate adaptive potential and plasticity in domestic species. We thus highlight the value of locally adapted breeds as a reservoir of genetic variation contributing to the global domestic genetic resource pool that will become increasingly important for livestock production systems under a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid30464240, year = {2018}, author = {Wood, JR and Díaz, FP and Latorre, C and Wilmshurst, JM and Burge, OR and Gutiérrez, RA}, title = {Plant pathogen responses to Late Pleistocene and Holocene climate change in the central Atacama Desert, Chile.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {17208}, pmid = {30464240}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {Core funding for Crown Research Institutes//Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE)/ ; Core funding to Crown Research Institutes//Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE)/ ; }, abstract = {Future climate change has the potential to alter the distribution and prevalence of plant pathogens, which may have significant implications for both agricultural crops and natural plant communities. However, there are few long-term datasets against which modelled predictions of pathogen responses to climate change can be tested. Here, we use 18S metabarcoding of 28 rodent middens (solidified deposits of rodent coprolites and nesting material) from the Central Atacama, spanning the last ca. 49 ka, to provide the first long-term late Quaternary record of change in plant pathogen communities in response to changing climate. Plant pathogen richness was significantly greater in middens deposited during the Central Andean Pluvial Event (CAPE); a period of increased precipitation between 17.5-8.5 ka. Moreover, the occurrence frequency of Pucciniaceae (rust fungi) was significantly greater during the CAPE, and the highest relative abundances for five additional potentially pathogenic taxa also occurred during this period. The results demonstrate the promising potential for ancient DNA analysis of late Quaternary samples to reveal insights into how plant pathogens responded to past climatic and environmental change, which could help predict how pathogens may responded to future change.}, }
@article {pmid30463471, year = {2018}, author = {Symonds, ME and Farhat, G and Aldiss, P and Pope, M and Budge, H}, title = {Brown adipose tissue and glucose homeostasis - the link between climate change and the global rise in obesity and diabetes.}, journal = {Adipocyte}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1080/21623945.2018.1551689}, pmid = {30463471}, issn = {2162-397X}, abstract = {There is increasing evidence that the global rise in temperature is contributing to the onset of diabetes, which could be mediated by a concomitant reduction in brown fat activity. Brown (and beige) fat are characterised as possessing a unique mitochondrial protein uncoupling protein (UCP)1 that when activated can rapidly generate large amounts of heat. Primary environmental stimuli of UCP1 include cold-exposure and diet, leading to increased activity of the sympathetic nervous system and large amounts of lipid and glucose being oxidised by brown fat. The exact contribution remains controversial, although recent studies indicate that the amount of brown and beige fat in adult humans has been greatly underestimated. We therefore review the potential mechanisms by which glucose could be utilised within brown and beige fat in adult humans and the extent to which these are sensitive to temperature and diet. This includes the potential contribution from the peridroplet and cytoplasmic mitochondrial sub-fractions recently identified in brown fat, and whether a proportion of glucose oxidation could be UCP1-independent. It is thus predicted that as new methods are developed to assess glucose metabolism by brown fat, a more accurate determination of the thermogenic and non-thermogenic functions could be feasible in humans.}, }
@article {pmid30463139, year = {2019}, author = {Li, Y and Tao, H and Su, B and Kundzewicz, ZW and Jiang, T}, title = {Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on winter snow depth in Central Asia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2866-2873}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.126}, pmid = {30463139}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Snow depth plays an essential role in the water and energy balance of the land surface. It is of special importance in arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia. Owing to the limited availability of field observations, the spatial and temporal variations of snow depth are still poorly known. Using the Japanese 55-year (JRA-55) and the ERA-Interim reanalysis snow depth products, we considered four global climate models (GCMs) applied in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), examining how they represent snow depth in Central Asia during the period 1986-2005 in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics. We also investigated changes of winter (January-March) snow depth in Central Asia, at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Finally, the joint probabilistic behavior of winter temperature and precipitation at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming are investigated using the kernel density estimator (KDE). The result shows that the snow depth climatology of Central Asia is generally well simulated in both spatial pattern and temporal (inter-annual and inter-seasonal) pattern. All models approximately simulate the winter maximum and the summer minimum values of snow depth but tend to overestimate the amplitude during October-December. Only the trend in HadGEM2-ES matches fairly well to the JRA-55 reanalysis snow depth. When comparing the projections of spatial distribution of winter snow depth, distinctive spatial pattern is noted at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, when the snow depth is shown to increase in northeastern and to decrease in midwestern regions of Central Asia. According to the joint probability distributions of precipitation and temperature, Central Asia will tend to experience a warmer and wetter winter at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, which can be associated with an increase in snow depth in the northeastern regions.}, }
@article {pmid30463131, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, Z and Yang, Y and He, C and Tu, M}, title = {Climate change will constrain the rapid urban expansion in drylands: A scenario analysis with the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2772-2786}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.177}, pmid = {30463131}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Evaluation of climate change impacts (CCIs) on urban expansion is important to improving the urban sustainability in drylands. Taking the agro-pastoral transitional zone of northern China (APTZNC) as an example, this study evaluates potential CCIs on urban expansion in 2015-2050. First, we set up six climate change scenarios (CCSs) based on the simulated results of global climate model and regional climate model under different representative concentration pathways. Then, we simulate regional urban expansion under the different CCSs using the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. We find that climate change will be a key factor that affects urban expansion in this region. The urban land affected by climate change in the entire region will increase from 20.24-26.48 km2 (2020) to 119.71-339.26 km2 (2050), an increase of 4.91-11.81 times. The CCIs on urban expansion will be the most significant in the mid-western region. In 2050, the urban land potentially affected by climate change will be 98.70-213.88 km2, which is 42.26%-134.12% of the urban land in the entire region. To improve urban sustainability in the APTZNC, effective measures must be adopted to mitigate and adapt to CCIs on urban expansion.}, }
@article {pmid30461534, year = {2019}, author = {Reid, CE and Maestas, MM}, title = {Wildfire smoke exposure under climate change: impact on respiratory health of affected communities.}, journal = {Current opinion in pulmonary medicine}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {179-187}, doi = {10.1097/MCP.0000000000000552}, pmid = {30461534}, issn = {1531-6971}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this review, we describe the current status of the literature regarding respiratory health related to wildfire smoke exposure, anticipated future impacts under a changing climate, and strategies to reduce respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Recent findings confirm associations between wildfire smoke exposure and respiratory health outcomes, with the clearest evidence for exacerbations of asthma. Although previous evidence showed a clear association between wildfire smoke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, findings from recent studies are more mixed. Current evidence in support of an association between respiratory infections and wildfire smoke exposure is also mixed. Only one study has investigated long-term respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke, and few studies have estimated future health impacts of wildfires under likely climate change scenarios.<br><br>SUMMARY: Wildfire activity has been increasing over the past several decades and is likely to continue to do so as climate change progresses, which, combined with a growing population, means that population exposure to and respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke is likely to grow in the future. More research is needed to understand which population subgroups are most vulnerable to wildfire smoke exposure and the long-term respiratory health impacts of these high pollution events.}, }
@article {pmid30460966, year = {2018}, author = {Dennis, S and Fisher, D}, title = {Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: The Next 50 Years.}, journal = {Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore}, volume = {47}, number = {10}, pages = {401-404}, pmid = {30460966}, issn = {0304-4602}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/*organization &amp; administration ; Communicable Diseases/diagnosis/*epidemiology ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Female ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Male ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid30460817, year = {2018}, author = {Liu, C and Huo, HL and Tian, LM and Dong, XG and Qi, D and Zhang, Y and Xu, JY and Cao, YF}, title = {[Potential geographical distribution of Pyrus calleryana under different climate change scena-rios based on the MaxEnt model].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {11}, pages = {3696-3704}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201811.016}, pmid = {30460817}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Asia ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; North America ; Pyrus/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {To resovle the problems of in-situ conservation and resource utilization of Pyrus caller-yana, maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and geographic information system (GIS) were used to predict the global ecological suitable region of P. calleryana in different climate scenarios based on 236 distribution data and 19 ecological factors. The results showed that the ecological suitable regions of P. calleryana were mainly concentrated in North America, Asia and other regions, with a total area of 1.6×107 km2. In China, the regions with high ecological suitability were Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian provinces. The main factors affecting the geographical distribution of P. calleryana were mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation, followed by the seasonality of temperature. The model simulations indicated that P. calleryana would have different suitable habitat areas and marginally suitable habitat areas in different climate scenarios. In terms of the spatial distribution of the potential habitat area, both the distributional range and the center of distribution of suitable and marginally suitable habitat area would shift from east to west. The suitable habitat area in North America and marginally suitable habitat areas in Europe would increase rapidly.}, }
@article {pmid30460799, year = {2018}, author = {Liu, M and Mao, ZJ and Li, Y and Xia, ZY}, title = {[Response of radial growth to climate change in Pinus koraiensis with different diameter classes].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {11}, pages = {3530-3540}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201811.010}, pmid = {30460799}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forests ; Pinus/*physiology ; Temperature ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Dendrochronological techniques were used to study the response of radial growth of Pinus koraiensis with different diameter classes to climate change throughout the natural range of broad-leaved Korean pine forests, including Baishilazi Nature Reserve (40.9° N), Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve (42.4° N), Liangshui Nature Reserve (47.2° N), and Shengshan Nature Reserve (49.4° N). We investigated the similarities and differences of growth responses of different diameter classes to climate factors and clarified the key climate factors affecting the growth of P. koraiensis at different latitude sites. We explored the dynamic changes of the radial growth of P. koraiensis from the latitudinal gradient over the past 40 years. The results showed many similarities in the response of two diameter classes to local climate factors. Small diameter (diameter at breast height of 10-20 cm) trees were more sensitive to the changes of average minimum temperature of the current growing season and the meteorological factors of the previous year, whereas large diameter (diameter at breast height >40 cm) trees were more sensitive to the changes of average maximum temperature and average relative humidity of the current growing season. The key meteorological factors that affecting radial growth of P. koraiensis differed along the latitude gradient. In Baishilazi Nature Reserve, the southernmost plot, the key climate factors were the average maximum temperature and the average maximum temperature in the current growing season. In Shengshan Nature Reserve, the northernmost sample plot, the key climate factors were low temperature factors, such as the minimum temperature in all seasons, the average maximum temperature in winter, the average temperature of all seasons except for the end of previous growing season and the current growing season. The Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in the current growth season and the end of the current growth season and the precipitation in the current growth season were the key climate factors in Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve. The average temperature of the current growing season was the key climate factor of Liangshui Nature Reserve. In recent four decades, with the rising of temperature, the radial growth of P. koraiensis of two diameter classes significantly decreased in the southernmost point, significantly increased in the northernmost point, and had no significant variation in middle latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid30460481, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmed, N and Thompson, S and Glaser, M}, title = {Global Aquaculture Productivity, Environmental Sustainability, and Climate Change Adaptability.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {63}, number = {2}, pages = {159-172}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-018-1117-3}, pmid = {30460481}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {To meet the demand for food from a growing global population, aquaculture production is under great pressure to increase as capture fisheries have stagnated. However, aquaculture has raised a range of environmental concerns, and further increases in aquaculture production will face widespread environmental challenges. The effects of climate change will pose a further threat to global aquaculture production. Aquaculture is often at risk from a combination of climatic variables, including cyclone, drought, flood, global warming, ocean acidification, rainfall variation, salinity, and sea level rise. For aquaculture growth to be sustainable its environmental impacts must reduce significantly. Adaptation to climate change is also needed to produce more fish without environmental impacts. Some adaptation strategies including integrated aquaculture, recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS), and the expansion of seafood farming could increase aquaculture productivity, environmental sustainability, and climate change adaptability.}, }
@article {pmid30460433, year = {2019}, author = {Campoy, JA and Darbyshire, R and Dirlewanger, E and Quero-García, J and Wenden, B}, title = {Yield potential definition of the chilling requirement reveals likely underestimation of the risk of climate change on winter chill accumulation.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {63}, number = {2}, pages = {183-192}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-018-1649-5}, pmid = {30460433}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {2014-1R201022971//Conseil Régional Aquitaine/ ; }, abstract = {Evaluation of chilling requirements of cultivars of temperate fruit trees provides key information to assess regional suitability, according to winter chill, for both industry expansion and ongoing profitability as climate change progresses. Traditional methods for calculating chilling requirements use climate-controlled chambers and define chilling requirements (CR) using a fixed bud burst percentage, usually close to 50% (CR-50%). However, this CR-50% definition may estimate chilling requirements that lead to flowering percentages that are lower than required for orchards to be commercially viable. We used sweet cherry to analyse the traditional method for calculating chilling requirements (CR-50%) and compared the results with a more restrictive method, where the chilling requirement was defined by a 90% bud break level (CRm-90%). For sweet cherry, this higher requirement of flowering success (90% as opposed to 50%) better represents grower production needs as a greater number of flowers leads to greater potential yield. To investigate the future risk of insufficient chill based on alternate calculations of the chilling requirement, climate projections of winter chill suitability across Europe were calculated using CR-50% and CRm-90%. Regional suitability across the landscape was highly dependent on the method used to define chilling requirements, and differences were found for both cold and mild winter areas. Our results suggest that bud break percentage levels used in the assessment of chilling requirements for sweet cherry influence production risks of current and future production areas. The use of traditional methods to determine chilling requirements can result in an underestimation of productivity chilling requirements for tree crops like sweet cherry which rely on a high conversion of flowers to mature fruit to obtain profitable yields. This underestimation may have negative consequences for the fruit industry as climate change advances with climate risk underestimated.}, }
@article {pmid30458350, year = {2019}, author = {Nunfam, VF and Van Etten, EJ and Oosthuizen, J and Adusei-Asante, K and Frimpong, K}, title = {Climate change and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of mining workers: Perspectives of supervisors and other stakeholders in Ghana.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {169}, number = {}, pages = {147-155}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2018.11.004}, pmid = {30458350}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Increasing air temperatures as a result of climate change are worsening the impact of heat exposure on working populations, including mining workers, who are at risk of suffering heat-related illnesses, injury and death. However, inadequate awareness of climate change-related occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies have been shown to render occupational heat stress management ineffective. A concurrent mixed-methods approach was used to assess the perceptions of climate change and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of mining workers among supervisory personnel and other stakeholders in Ghana. Questionnaires and interviews were used to elicit data from 19 respondents. Data were processed and interpreted using descriptive statistics, chi-square and Fisher's exact tests, and thematic analysis. Supervisors' climate change risks perception was adequate, and their concern about workplace heat exposure risks was moderate. Mining workers' occupational heat stress risks experiences were linked to heat-related illness and minor injuries. Mining workers' adaptation strategies included water intake, use of cooling mechanisms, work-break practices, and clothing use. The related differences in job experience in the distribution of climate change risk perception and occupational heat stress risk experiences, and the difference in educational attainment in the distribution of adaptation strategies of occupational heat stress were significant (p < 0.05). Hence, an effective workplace heat management policy requires adequate understanding of occupational heat stress risks and adaptation policies and continued education and training for mining workers.}, }
@article {pmid30456897, year = {2019}, author = {Cochand, F and Therrien, R and Lemieux, JM}, title = {Integrated Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Snow-Influenced Catchment.}, journal = {Ground water}, volume = {57}, number = {1}, pages = {3-20}, doi = {10.1111/gwat.12848}, pmid = {30456897}, issn = {1745-6584}, abstract = {The potential impact of climate change on water resources has been intensively studied for different regions and climates across the world. In regions where winter processes such as snowfall and melting play a significant role, anticipated changes in temperature might significantly affect hydrological systems. To address this impact, modifications have been made to the fully integrated surface-subsurface flow model HydroGeoSphere (HGS) to allow the simulation of snow accumulation and melting. The modified HGS model was used to assess the potential impact of climate change on surface and subsurface flow in the Saint-Charles River catchment, Quebec (Canada) for the period 2070 to 2100. The model was first developed and calibrated to reproduce observed streamflow and hydraulic heads for current climate conditions. The calibrated model was then used with three different climate scenarios to simulate surface flow and groundwater dynamics for the 2070 to 2100 period. Winter stream discharges are predicted to increase by about 80, 120, and 150% for the three scenarios due to warmer winters, leading to more liquid precipitation and more snowmelt. Conversely, the summer stream discharges are predicted to fall by about 10, 15, and 20% due to an increase in evapotranspiration. However, the annual mean stream discharge should remain stable (±0.1 m3 /s). The predicted increase in hydraulic heads in winter may reach 15 m and the maximum decrease in summer may reach 3 m. Simulations show that winter processes play a key role in the seasonal modifications anticipated for surface and subsurface flow dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid30455442, year = {2018}, author = {Doughty, CE and Santos-Andrade, PE and Shenkin, A and Goldsmith, GR and Bentley, LP and Blonder, B and Díaz, S and Salinas, N and Enquist, BJ and Martin, RE and Asner, GP and Malhi, Y}, title = {Tropical forest leaves may darken in response to climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {12}, pages = {1918-1924}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0716-y}, pmid = {30455442}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {NE/J023418/1//Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; }, abstract = {Tropical forest leaf albedo (reflectance) greatly impacts how much energy the planet absorbs; however; little is known about how it might be impacted by climate change. Here, we measure leaf traits and leaf albedo at ten 1-ha plots along a 3,200-m elevation gradient in Peru. Leaf mass per area (LMA) decreased with warmer temperatures along the elevation gradient; the distribution of LMA was positively skewed at all sites indicating a shift in LMA towards a warmer climate and future reduced tropical LMA. Reduced LMA was significantly (P < 0.0001) correlated with reduced leaf near-infrared (NIR) albedo; community-weighted mean NIR albedo significantly (P < 0.01) decreased as temperature increased. A potential future 2 °C increase in tropical temperatures could reduce lowland tropical leaf LMA by 6-7 g m-2 (5-6%) and reduce leaf NIR albedo by 0.0015-0.002 units. Reduced NIR albedo means that leaves are darker and absorb more of the Sun's energy. Climate simulations indicate this increased absorbed energy will warm tropical forests more at high CO2 conditions with proportionately more energy going towards heating and less towards evapotranspiration and cloud formation.}, }
@article {pmid30455218, year = {2018}, author = {MacLean, HJ and Nielsen, ME and Kingsolver, JG and Buckley, LB}, title = {Using museum specimens to track morphological shifts through climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1763}, pages = {}, pmid = {30455218}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Museum specimens offer a largely untapped resource for detecting morphological shifts in response to climate change. However, morphological shifts can be obscured by shifts in phenology or distribution or sampling biases. Additionally, interpreting phenotypic shifts requires distinguishing whether they result from plastic or genetic changes. Previous studies using collections have documented consistent historical size changes, but the limited studies of other morphological traits have often failed to support, or even test, hypotheses. We explore the potential of collections by investigating shifts in the functionally significant coloration of a montane butterfly, Colias meadii, over the past 60 years within three North American geographical regions. We find declines in ventral wing melanism, which correspond to reduced absorption of solar radiation and thus reduced risk of overheating, in two regions. However, contrary to expected responses to climate warming, we find melanism increases in the most thoroughly sampled region. Relationships among temperature, phenology and morphology vary across years and complicate the distinction between plastic and genetic responses. Differences in these relationships may account for the differing morphological shifts among regions. Our findings highlight the promise of using museum specimens to test mechanistic hypotheses for shifts in functional traits, which is essential for deciphering interacting responses to climate change.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.}, }
@article {pmid30452890, year = {2019}, author = {Sergi, C and Serra, N and Colomba, C and Ayanlade, A and Di Carlo, P}, title = {Tuberculosis evolution and climate change: How much work is ahead?.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {190}, number = {}, pages = {157-158}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.11.016}, pmid = {30452890}, issn = {1873-6254}, }
@article {pmid30452778, year = {2018}, author = {Shortridge, J and Camp, JS}, title = {Addressing Climate Change as an Emerging Risk to Infrastructure Systems.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13234}, pmid = {30452778}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {The consequences that climate change could have on infrastructure systems are potentially severe but highly uncertain. This should make risk analysis a natural framework for climate adaptation in infrastructure systems. However, many aspects of climate change, such as weak background knowledge and societal controversy, make it an emerging risk where traditional approaches for risk assessment and management cannot be confidently employed. A number of research developments aimed at addressing these issues have emerged in recent years, such as the development of probabilistic climate projections, climate services, and robust decision frameworks. However, additional research is needed to improve the suitability of these methods for infrastructure planning. In this perspective, we outline some of the challenges in addressing climate change risks to infrastructure and summarize new developments aimed at meeting these challenges. We end by highlighting needs for future research, many of which could be well-served by expertise within the risk analysis community.}, }
@article {pmid30451349, year = {2018}, author = {Stinziano, JR and Bauerle, WL and Way, DA}, title = {Modelled net carbon gain responses to climate change in boreal trees: Impacts of photosynthetic parameter selection and acclimation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14530}, pmid = {30451349}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2009-51181-05768//U.S. Department of Agriculture/ ; //State of Colorado/ ; //Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; //Canada Foundation for Innovation/ ; //Ministry of Research and Innovation/ ; }, abstract = {Boreal forests are crucial in regulating global vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks, but the impact of climate change on boreal tree carbon fluxes is still unclear. Given the sensitivity of global vegetation models to photosynthetic and respiration parameters, we determined how predictions of net carbon gain (C-gain) respond to variation in these parameters using a stand-level model (MAESTRA). We also modelled how thermal acclimation of photosynthetic and respiratory temperature sensitivity alters predicted net C-gain responses to climate change. We modelled net C-gain of seven common boreal tree species under eight climate scenarios across a latitudinal gradient to capture a range of seasonal temperature conditions. Physiological parameter values were taken from the literature together with different approaches for thermally acclimating photosynthesis and respiration. At high latitudes, net C-gain was stimulated up to 400% by elevated temperatures and CO2 in the autumn but suppressed at the lowest latitudes during midsummer under climate scenarios that included warming. Modelled net C-gain was more sensitive to photosynthetic capacity parameters (Vcmax , Jmax , Arrhenius temperature response parameters, and the ratio of Jmax to Vcmax) than stomatal conductance or respiration parameters. The effect of photosynthetic thermal acclimation depended on the temperatures where it was applied: acclimation reduced net C-gain by 10%-15% within the temperature range where the equations were derived but decreased net C-gain by 175% at temperatures outside this range. Thermal acclimation of respiration had small, but positive, impacts on net C-gain. We show that model simulations are highly sensitive to variation in photosynthetic parameters and highlight the need to better understand the mechanisms and drivers underlying this variability (e.g., whether variability is environmentally and/or biologically driven) for further model improvement.}, }
@article {pmid30450107, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, Y and Halbritter, AH and Klanderud, K and Telford, RJ and Wang, G and Vandvik, V}, title = {Transplants, Open Top Chambers (OTCs) and Gradient Studies Ask Different Questions in Climate Change Effects Studies.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1574}, pmid = {30450107}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Long-term monitoring, space-for-time substitutions along gradients, and in situ temperature manipulations are common approaches to understand effects of climate change on alpine and arctic plant communities. Although general patterns emerge from studies using different approaches, there are also some inconsistencies. To provide better estimates of plant community responses to future warming across a range of environments, there have been repeated calls for integrating different approaches within single studies. Thus, to examine how different methods in climate change effect studies may ask different questions, we combined three climate warming approaches in a single study in the Hengduan Mountains of southwestern China. We monitored plant communities along an elevation gradient using the space-for-time approach, and conducted warming experiments using open top chambers (OTCs) and plant community transplantation toward warmer climates along the same gradient. Plant species richness and abundances were monitored over 5 years addressing two questions: (1) how do plant communities respond to the different climate warming approaches? (2) how can the combined approaches improve predictions of plant community responses to climate change? The general trend across all three approaches was decreased species richness with climate warming at low elevations. This suggests increased competition from immigrating lowland species, and/or from the species already growing inside the plots, as indicated by increased biomass, vegetation height or proportion of graminoids. At the coldest sites, species richness decreased in OTCs and along the gradient, but increased in the transplants, suggesting that plant communities in colder climates are more open to invasion from lowland species, with slow species loss. This was only detected in the transplants, showing that different approaches, may yield different results. Whereas OTCs may constrain immigration of new species, transplanted communities are rapidly exposed to new neighbors that can easily colonize the small plots. Thus, different approaches ask slightly different questions, in particular regarding indirect climate change effects, such as biotic interactions. To better understand both direct and indirect effects of climate change on plant communities, we need to combine approaches in future studies, and if novel interactions are of particular interest, transplants may be a better approach than OTCs.}, }
@article {pmid30448995, year = {2018}, author = {van Kerkhoff, L and Munera, C and Dudley, N and Guevara, O and Wyborn, C and Figueroa, C and Dunlop, M and Hoyos, MA and Castiblanco, J and Becerra, L}, title = {Towards future-oriented conservation: Managing protected areas in an era of climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-018-1121-0}, pmid = {30448995}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {P10002150//Luc Hoffmann Institute/ ; PO#2174//Luc Hoffmann Institute/ ; }, abstract = {Management of protected areas must adapt to climate impacts, and prepare for ongoing ecological transformation. Future-Proofing Conservation is a dialogue-based, multi-stakeholder learning process that supports conservation managers to consider the implications of climate change for governance and management. It takes participants through a series of conceptual transitions to identify new management options that are robust to a range of possible biophysical futures, and steps that they can take now to prepare for ecological transformation. We outline the Future-Proofing Conservation process, and demonstrate its application in a pilot programme in Colombia. This process can be applied and adapted to a wide range of climate adaptation contexts, to support practitioners in developing positive ways forward for management and decision-making. By acknowledging scientific uncertainty, considering social values, and rethinking the rules that shape conservation governance, participants can identify new strategies towards &quot;future-oriented conservation&quot; over the long term.}, }
@article {pmid30448655, year = {2019}, author = {Warnatzsch, EA and Reay, DS}, title = {Temperature and precipitation change in Malawi: Evaluation of CORDEX-Africa climate simulations for climate change impact assessments and adaptation planning.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {654}, number = {}, pages = {378-392}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.098}, pmid = {30448655}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Malawi is highlighted as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the effects of climate change. The large uncertainty around future climate change in the region remains a barrier to adaptation planning. Despite this high potential vulnerability, relatively little research has gone into determining how well available models represent this country's climate. This work therefore evaluates the ability of existing General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to hindcast climatic variables in Malawi at a resolution appropriate for climate change impact assessment and adaptation planning. We focus on monthly precipitation rate, and mean, maximum and minimum surface air temperature. This assessment compares available observed datasets against the outputs of six ERA-interim driven RCMs and 21 GCM-driven RCMs from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative, and the 11 GCMs which form their boundary conditions. It was found that the performance of the RCMs is highly influenced by their boundary conditions. None of the individual or ensemble RCMs or GCMs assessed in this paper correlate well with the observed datasets for any of the assessed climatic variables. While, they do simulate the trending change in temperature variables well, the simulated outputs for precipitation are highly divergent. Based on these findings we suggest that either the ensemble RCMs or ensemble GCMs would be suitable for understanding projected temperature trends, with the RCMs providing better spatial resolution. However, none of the assessed models provide certainty over future precipitation trends in Malawi. As such we suggest that impact assessments and adaptation plans in Malawi will need to be designed and tested against a range of future precipitation scenarios. To improve modelling for Malawi it is recommended that regional climate models be improved for higher spatial resolution and inclusion of the impacts from large water bodies, including Lake Malawi.}, }
@article {pmid30447580, year = {2019}, author = {Hălbac-Cotoară-Zamfir, R and Keesstra, S and Kalantari, Z}, title = {The impact of political, socio-economic and cultural factors on implementing environment friendly techniques for sustainable land management and climate change mitigation in Romania.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {654}, number = {}, pages = {418-429}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.160}, pmid = {30447580}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Throughout the history of Romania, political decisions, socio-economic measures, and cultural (traditional) characters have affected the implementation of environment friendly techniques (EFTs) policies. In the context of this paper, EFTs can be defined as solutions for the use of land resources aiming the increasing of goods for meeting the changing human needs and with neutral or positive environmental impact. Changes in the political regime have always had a visible impact on the EFTs issue in Romania. EFTs has gone through several major phases. The political impact on EFTs implementation mainly affected sustainable land management (SLM) and to a small extent, at the end of the communist era and partly during the capitalist period, climate change mitigation. Throughout history, the political factor has dominated and influenced the capacity of the EFTs implementation process in responding to socio-economic stimuli. In addition, quality of life, rural-urban and urban-rural migrations, poverty, education level, and climate change adaptation have had impacts on the status of EFTs according to governance and political reflections. The agrarian reforms from the last two centuries, based on socio-economic demands, have strongly influenced the capacity to implement EFTs both positively and negatively. However, the cultural factor was least affected by political and socio-economic changes as a stability factor in ensuring continued implementation of the EFTs. Currently, there is a strong need to reconsider EFTs as sustainability tools for Romanian agriculture that can cope with climate change and sustainable land management (SLM) demands. This paper presents a brief history of EFTs in Romania and their benefits in achieving SLM equilibrium, describing the impacts of political decisions, socio-economic measures, and cultural features on implementing ETFs policies.}, }
@article {pmid30446838, year = {2018}, author = {Sarun, S and Ghermandi, A and Sheela, AM and Justus, J and Vineetha, P}, title = {Climate change vulnerability in a tropical region based on environmental and socio-economic factors.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {190}, number = {12}, pages = {727}, pmid = {30446838}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Humans ; India ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The understanding of the regional and local dimensions of vulnerability due to climate change is essential to develop appropriate and targeted adaptation efforts. We assessed the local dimensions of vulnerability in the tropical state of Kerala, India, using a purposely developed vulnerability index, which accounts for both environmental and socio-economic factors. The large extents of coastal wetlands and lagoons and high concentration of mangrove forests make the state environmentally vulnerable. Low human development index, large population of socially deprived groups, which are dependent on the primary sector, and high population density make the state vulnerable from a socio-economic point of view. The present study investigates climate change vulnerability at the district level in the State of Kerala relying on a purposely developed composite vulnerability index that encompasses both socio-economic and environmental factors. The Kerala coast contains the socio-economically and ecologically most vulnerable regions, as demonstrated by a composite vulnerability index.}, }
@article {pmid30445333, year = {2019}, author = {Eekhout, J and de Vente, J}, title = {Assessing the effectiveness of Sustainable Land Management for large-scale climate change adaptation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {654}, number = {}, pages = {85-93}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.350}, pmid = {30445333}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change will strongly affect essential ecosystem services, like the provision of freshwater, food production, soil erosion and flood control. Sustainable Land Management (SLM) practices are increasingly promoted to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation, but there is lack of evidence at scales most relevant for policymaking. We evaluated the effectiveness of SLM in a large Mediterranean catchment where climate change is projected to significantly reduce water security. We show that the on-site and off-site impacts of climate change are almost entirely reversed by the large-scale implementation of SLM under moderate climate change conditions, characterized by limited reductions in annual precipitation but significant increased precipitation intensity. Under more extreme reductions of annual precipitation, SLM implementation reduces the impacts on water security, but cannot prevent significant increased plant water stress and reduced water availability. Under these conditions, additional adaptation measures are required considering their interactions and trade-offs regarding water security.}, }
@article {pmid30444929, year = {2018}, author = {He, W and Yang, JY and Qian, B and Drury, CF and Hoogenboom, G and He, P and Lapen, D and Zhou, W}, title = {Climate change impacts on crop yield, soil water balance and nitrate leaching in the semiarid and humid regions of Canada.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {e0207370}, pmid = {30444929}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The impact of climate change on agricultural systems is a major concern as it can have a significant effect on the world food supply. The objective of this study was to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production and nitrate leaching in two distinct climatic zones in Canada. Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was selected for the semiarid regions of Western Canada (Swift Current, SK) and maize (Zea mays L.) was chosen for the more humid regions of central Canada (Woodslee, ON). Climate scenarios were based upon simulations from a Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and crop simulations were conducted using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. Compared to the baseline climate scenario, wheat yields increased by 8, 8, 11, 15%, whereas maize yields decreased by 15, 25, 22, 41% under RCP4.5 2050s (2041-2070), RCP4.5 2080s (2071-2100), RCP8.5 2050s and RCP8.5 2080s scenarios, respectively. Annual nitrate leaching increased by 19, 57, 73, 129% at Swift Current and by 84, 117, 208, 317% at Woodslee under the four scenarios, respectively. Adaptation measures suggested that fertilizer N rate for spring wheat should be increased to 80-100 kg N ha-1 to obtain optimal yields although this will result in an additional risk of 5-8 kg N ha-1 nitrate leaching at Swift Current. The fertilizer N rate of 150 kg N ha-1 was found to be suitable for high maize yields at Woodslee. New wheat and maize cultivars with long growing seasons would enable crop growth to match the phenological stage and hence maintain high crop yields to adapt to increased temperatures in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30444658, year = {2018}, author = {Wadgymar, SM and Mactavish, RM and Anderson, JT}, title = {Transgenerational and Within-Generation Plasticity in Response to Climate Change: Insights from a Manipulative Field Experiment across an Elevational Gradient.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {192}, number = {6}, pages = {698-714}, doi = {10.1086/700097}, pmid = {30444658}, issn = {1537-5323}, abstract = {Parental environmental effects-or transgenerational plasticity-can influence an individual's phenotype or fitness yet remain underexplored in the context of global change. Using the perennial self-pollinating plant Boechera stricta, we explored the effects of climate change on transgenerational and within-generation plasticity in dormancy, germination, growth, and survival. We first conducted a snow removal experiment in the field, in which we transplanted 16 families of known origin into three common gardens at different elevations and exposed half of the siblings to contemporary snow dynamics and half to early snow removal. We planted the offspring of these individuals in a factorial manipulation of temperature and water level in the growth chamber and reciprocally transplanted them across all parental environments in the field. The growth chamber experiment revealed that the effects of transgenerational plasticity persist in traits expressed after establishment, even when accounting for parental effects on seed mass. The field experiment showed that transgenerational and within-generation plasticity can interact and that plasticity varies clinally in populations distributed across elevations. These findings demonstrate that transgenerational plasticity can influence fitness-related traits and should be incorporated in studies of biological responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30443732, year = {2019}, author = {Douglass-Gallagher, E and Stuart, D}, title = {Crop Growers' Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: A Situated Study of Agriculture in Arizona's Verde Valley.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {63}, number = {1}, pages = {94-109}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-018-1114-6}, pmid = {30443732}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Climate change will pose unprecedented challenges for agricultural producers globally, requiring the ability to adapt to new and unpredictable conditions. This study explores the adaptive capacity of crop growers in the Verde Valley, Arizona (US). Rather than examining pre-determined indicators of adaptive capacity, this study adopts a situated framework that examines material conditions, perceptions, and the larger social context. Interviewers used past experiences and future scenarios to allow factors that enhance or constrain adaptive capacity to emerge from the interviews. Findings reveal adaptation is site specific but general measures can be taken to enhance adaptive capacity. Encouraging diversity in crops and water sources, the use of drought and heat tolerant crops, and the use of water conservation practices will likely increase growers' adaptive capacity. In contrast, lack of support from organizations and government programs, lack of diverse crops and sources of water, lack of awareness about climate change, and growers' confidence in their ability to always adapt impairs adaptive capacity. Verde Valley growers will need increased support from local and national organizations to adapt to projected changes. The situated framework applied in this study reveals important insights and could be used to explore adaptive capacity in other agricultural regions.}, }
@article {pmid30442795, year = {2018}, author = {Klein, T and Hartmann, H}, title = {Climate change drives tree mortality.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6416}, pages = {758}, doi = {10.1126/science.aav6508}, pmid = {30442795}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; Forests ; *Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid30440075, year = {2018}, author = {Hemmer, CJ and Emmerich, P and Loebermann, M and Frimmel, S and Reisinger, EC}, title = {[Mosquitoes and Ticks: The Influence of Global Warming in the Transmission of Infectious Diseases in Germany].}, journal = {Deutsche medizinische Wochenschrift (1946)}, volume = {143}, number = {23}, pages = {1714-1722}, doi = {10.1055/a-0653-6333}, pmid = {30440075}, issn = {1439-4413}, abstract = {During the last 135 years, the average temperature in Germany has increased by 1.4 °C. By 2050, a further rise by 1.5 °C is expected. This is associated with an increase of precipitation during the winter months. This climate change probably will improve both the growth conditions for mosquitoes and ticks, as well as their ability to transmit infectious diseases. Today, vectors that have not yet been present are invading into Germany. Among them is Aedes albopictus, which transmits Chikungunya, Zika, and Dengue Fever. Also, spreading of autochthonous malaria and West Nile Fever appear possible in Germany. Because of the increased presence of Phlebotomus species, leishmaniasis should be considered as a potential differential diagnosis in unclear hematologic diseases. Among the tick-borne diseases, climate change has already led to increased case numbers of Borreliosis and Tick Borne Encephalitis (TBE), and Crimean Congo Virus is spreading from the Balkan region towards Central Europe. This requires physicians to consider additional differential diagnoses in febrile illnesses.}, }
@article {pmid30430701, year = {2019}, author = {Varela, MR and Patrício, AR and Anderson, K and Broderick, AC and DeBell, L and Hawkes, LA and Tilley, D and Snape, RTE and Westoby, MJ and Godley, BJ}, title = {Assessing climate change associated sea-level rise impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches using drones, photogrammetry and a novel GPS system.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {753-762}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14526}, pmid = {30430701}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Aircraft ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/instrumentation/*methods ; Geographic Information Systems/instrumentation ; *Nesting Behavior ; Photogrammetry/methods ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change associated sea-level rise (SLR) is expected to have profound impacts on coastal areas, affecting many species, including sea turtles which depend on these habitats for egg incubation. Being able to accurately model beach topography using digital terrain models (DTMs) is therefore crucial to project SLR impacts and develop effective conservation strategies. Traditional survey methods are typically low-cost with low accuracy or high-cost with high accuracy. We present a novel combination of drone-based photogrammetry and a low-cost and portable real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS to create DTMs which are highly accurate (<10 cm error) and visually realistic. This methodology is ideal for surveying coastal sites, can be broadly applied to other species and habitats, and is a relevant tool in supporting the development of Specially Protected Areas. Here, we applied this method as a case-study to project three SLR scenarios (0.48, 0.63 and 1.20 m) and assess the future vulnerability and viability of a key nesting habitat for sympatric loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green turtle (Chelonia mydas) at a key rookery in the Mediterranean. We combined the DTM with 5 years of nest survey data describing location and clutch depth, to identify (a) regions with highest nest densities, (b) nest elevation by species and beach, and (c) estimated proportion of nests inundated under each SLR scenario. On average, green turtles nested at higher elevations than loggerheads (1.8 m vs. 1.32 m, respectively). However, because green turtles dig deeper nests than loggerheads (0.76 m vs. 0.50 m, respectively), these were at similar risk of inundation. For a SLR of 1.2 m, we estimated a loss of 67.3% for loggerhead turtle nests and 59.1% for green turtle nests. Existing natural and artificial barriers may affect the ability of these nesting habitats to remain suitable for nesting through beach migration.}, }
@article {pmid30429613, year = {2018}, author = {Fadrique, B and Báez, S and Duque, Á and Malizia, A and Blundo, C and Carilla, J and Osinaga-Acosta, O and Malizia, L and Silman, M and Farfán-Ríos, W and Malhi, Y and Young, KR and Cuesta C, F and Homeier, J and Peralvo, M and Pinto, E and Jadan, O and Aguirre, N and Aguirre, Z and Feeley, KJ}, title = {Widespread but heterogeneous responses of Andean forests to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {564}, number = {7735}, pages = {207-212}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0715-9}, pmid = {30429613}, issn = {1476-4687}, support = {DEB-1350125//US National Science Foundation/International ; DEB-1754647//US National Science Foundation/International ; DEB-1258112//US National Science Foundation/International ; EAR-1338694//US National Science Foundation/International ; }, abstract = {Global warming is forcing many species to shift their distributions upward, causing consequent changes in the compositions of species that occur at specific locations. This prediction remains largely untested for tropical trees. Here we show, using a database of nearly 200 Andean forest plot inventories spread across more than 33.5° latitude (from 26.8° S to 7.1° N) and 3,000-m elevation (from 360 to 3,360 m above sea level), that tropical and subtropical tree communities are experiencing directional shifts in composition towards having greater relative abundances of species from lower, warmer elevations. Although this phenomenon of 'thermophilization' is widespread throughout the Andes, the rates of compositional change are not uniform across elevations. The observed heterogeneity in thermophilization rates is probably because of different warming rates and/or the presence of specialized tree communities at ecotones (that is, at the transitions between distinct habitats, such as at the timberline or at the base of the cloud forest). Understanding the factors that determine the directions and rates of compositional changes will enable us to better predict, and potentially mitigate, the effects of climate change on tropical forests.}, }
@article {pmid30428540, year = {2018}, author = {Zhao, C and Chen, J and Du, P and Yuan, H}, title = {Characteristics of Climate Change and Extreme Weather from 1951 to 2011 in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {30428540}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change/*history ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Temperature ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {It has been demonstrated that climate change is an established fact. A good comprehension of climate and extreme weather variation characteristics on a temporal and a spatial scale is important for adaptation and response. In this work, the characteristics of temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather distribution and variation is summarized for a period of 60 years and the seasonal fluctuation of temperature and precipitation is also analyzed. The results illustrate the reduction in daily and annual temperature divergence on both temporal and spatial scales. However, the gaps remain relatively significant. Furthermore, the disparity in daily and annual precipitation are found to be increasing on both temporal and spatial scales. The findings indicate that climate change, to a certain extent, narrowed the temperature gap while widening the precipitation gap on temporal and spatial scales in China.}, }
@article {pmid30426378, year = {2019}, author = {Fang, J and Lau, CKM and Lu, Z and Wu, W and Zhu, L}, title = {Natural disasters, climate change, and their impact on inclusive wealth in G20 countries.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {1455-1463}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-3634-2}, pmid = {30426378}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {16BJY052//The National Social Science Fund of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics ; *Developed Countries ; *Economic Development ; Humans ; *Natural Disasters ; Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {This paper uses the 1990-2010 natural disaster and carbon emission data of G20 countries to examine the impact of natural disasters and climate change on the natural capital component of inclusive wealth. Our study shows that climate change and GDP have no positive impacts on the growth of natural capital. By contrast, trade openness and natural disaster frequency contribute to the accumulation of natural capital in G20 countries. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the growth of natural capital and the magnitude of natural disaster. Natural capital growth is not affected very much by small disasters. By contrast, large disasters tend to make the growth of natural capital fall sharply.}, }
@article {pmid30419441, year = {2019}, author = {Makate, C and Makate, M and Mango, N and Siziba, S}, title = {Increasing resilience of smallholder farmers to climate change through multiple adoption of proven climate-smart agriculture innovations. Lessons from Southern Africa.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {231}, number = {}, pages = {858-868}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.069}, pmid = {30419441}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Conservation agriculture, drought tolerant maize, and improved legume varieties are key climate change management strategies for smallholder farmers in southern Africa. Their complementary efforts in adaptation to climate change are sternly important for farm productivity and income. This study evaluates factors explaining individual and multiple adoption of climate change management strategies and their differential impacts on productivity and income using a sample of 1172 smallholder farmers from Malawi and Zimbabwe. The study employs multinomial logistic regression to evaluate factors of individual and multiple adoption and regression adjustment with inverse probability weighting to evaluate impacts of the different adoption regimes on farm productivity and income. The results show that multiple adoption of innovations is mostly explained by access to key resources (credit, income and information), level of education and size of land owned by the farmer. More so, the concurrent adoption of conservation agriculture, stress adapted legume varieties and drought tolerant maize has far greater dividends on productivity and income than when considered individually. However, impacts of multiple adoption of the practices are not entirely uniform across different geographic regions and gender. Results suggest that effective institutional and policy efforts targeted towards reducing resource constraints that inhibit farmers' capacity to adopt complementary climate-smart agriculture packages such as conservation agriculture, drought tolerant maize and improved legume varieties must be gender sensitive and context specific.}, }
@article {pmid30418152, year = {2018}, author = {Zohner, CM and Mo, L and Renner, SS}, title = {Global warming reduces leaf-out and flowering synchrony among individuals.}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {30418152}, issn = {2050-084X}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; Flowers/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; Models, Theoretical ; Photoperiod ; Plant Leaves/*physiology ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The temporal overlap of phenological stages, phenological synchrony, crucially influences ecosystem functioning. For flowering, among-individual synchrony influences gene flow. For leaf-out, it affects interactions with herbivores and competing plants. If individuals differ in their reaction to the ongoing change in global climate, this should affect population-level synchrony. Here, we use climate-manipulation experiments, Pan-European long-term (>15 years) observations, and common garden monitoring data on up to 72 woody and herbaceous species to study the effects of increasing temperatures on the extent of leaf-out and flowering synchrony within populations. Warmer temperatures reduce in situ leaf-out and flowering synchrony by up to 55%, and experiments on European beech provide a mechanism for how individual differences in day-length and/or chilling sensitivity may explain this finding. The rapid loss of reproductive and vegetative synchrony in European plants predicts changes in their gene flow and trophic interactions, but community-wide consequences remain largely unknown.<br><br>Editorial note: This article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter).}, }
@article {pmid30417977, year = {2019}, author = {Jarić, I and Lennox, RJ and Kalinkat, G and Cvijanović, G and Radinger, J}, title = {Susceptibility of European freshwater fish to climate change: Species profiling based on life-history and environmental characteristics.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {448-458}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14518}, pmid = {30417977}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; Fishes/*physiology ; Fresh Water ; *Life History Traits ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to strongly affect freshwater fish communities. Combined with other anthropogenic drivers, the impacts may alter species spatio-temporal distributions and contribute to population declines and local extinctions. To provide timely management and conservation of fishes, it is relevant to identify species that will be most impacted by climate change and those that will be resilient. Species traits are considered a promising source of information on characteristics that influence resilience to various environmental conditions and impacts. To this end, we collated life-history traits and climatic niches of 443 European freshwater fish species and compared those identified as susceptible to climate change to those that are considered to be resilient. Significant differences were observed between the two groups in their distribution, life history, and climatic niche, with climate-change-susceptible species being distributed within the Mediterranean region, and being characterized by greater threat levels, lesser commercial relevance, lower vulnerability to fishing, smaller body and range size, and warmer thermal envelopes. Based on our results, we establish a list of species of highest priority for further research and monitoring regarding climate-change susceptibility within Europe. The presented approach represents a promising tool to efficiently assess large groups of species regarding their susceptibility to climate change and other threats, and to identify research and management priorities.}, }
@article {pmid30414338, year = {2019}, author = {Coleman, MA and Butcherine, P and Kelaher, BP and Broadhurst, MK and March, DT and Provost, EJ and David, J and Benkendorff, K}, title = {Climate change does not affect the seafood quality of a commonly targeted fish.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {699-707}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14513}, pmid = {30414338}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Fisheries ; *Food Quality ; Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; New South Wales ; Perciformes/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Seafood/*analysis ; Seawater/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Climate change can affect marine and estuarine fish via alterations to their distributions, abundances, sizes, physiology and ecological interactions, threatening the provision of ecosystem goods and services. While we have an emerging understanding of such ecological impacts to fish, we know little about the potential influence of climate change on the provision of nutritional seafood to sustain human populations. In particular, the quantity, quality and/or taste of seafood may be altered by future environmental changes with implications for the economic viability of fisheries. In an orthogonal mesocosm experiment, we tested the influence of near-future ocean warming and acidification on the growth, health and seafood quality of a recreationally and commercially important fish, yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus australis). The growth of yellowfin bream significantly increased under near-future temperature conditions (but not acidification), with little change in health (blood glucose and haematocrit) or tissue biochemistry and nutritional properties (fatty acids, lipids, macro- and micronutrients, moisture, ash and total N). Yellowfin bream appear to be highly resilient to predicted near-future ocean climate change, which might be facilitated by their wide spatio-temporal distribution across habitats and broad diet. Moreover, an increase in growth, but little change in tissue quality, suggests that near-future ocean conditions will benefit fisheries and fishers that target yellowfin bream. The data reiterate the inherent resilience of yellowfin bream as an evolutionary consequence of their euryhaline status in often environmentally challenging habitats and imply their sustainable and viable fisheries into the future. We contend that widely distributed species that span large geographic areas and habitats can be &quot;climate winners&quot; by being resilient to the negative direct impacts of near-future oceanic and estuarine climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30413121, year = {2018}, author = {Gao, X and Wang, A and Zhao, Y and Zhao, X and Sun, M and Du, J and Gang, C}, title = {Study on Water Suitability of Apple Plantations in the Loess Plateau under Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {30413121}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Farms ; Forecasting ; *Malus ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Water Resources ; Weather ; }, abstract = {With the implementation of the Grain for Green Project, the apple plantation area is increasing in Loess Plateau. However, due to severe water scarcity, the sustainability of apple tree growth is threatened. In this paper, we used meteorological data (1990⁻2013) and forecasted climate data (2019⁻2050) to estimate water demand and establish a water suitability model to study the water balance between available water and water consumption of the apple trees. The results show that: (i) the order of the average water demand of apple plantation in each subarea is Shaanxi Province > Yuncheng area > Gansu Province > Sanmenxia Region, ranging from 500 to 950 mm; (ii) the temporal variability of water suitability from 1990 to 2013 is large, and the higher values are concentrated in the late growth stage of the apple trees and the lower values are concentrated in the early growth stage; (iii) the temporal and spatial distribution of water suitability is relatively stable and even in the Loess Plateau in the period of 2019⁻2050; (iv) the water suitability is mainly affected by effective precipitation and reference evapotranspiration and the reference evapotranspiration is mainly affected by the solar radiation (36%) and average temperature (38%). Furthermore, due to the joint influence of precipitation increases and solar radiation (average temperature) increases, the future water suitability of the apple plantation area in the Loess Plateau is showing a non-significant downward trend under RCP4.5 scenario.}, }
@article {pmid30412888, year = {2019}, author = {Op de Hipt, F and Diekkrüger, B and Steup, G and Yira, Y and Hoffmann, T and Rode, M and Näschen, K}, title = {Modeling the effect of land use and climate change on water resources and soil erosion in a tropical West African catch-ment (Dano, Burkina Faso) using SHETRAN.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {653}, number = {}, pages = {431-445}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.351}, pmid = {30412888}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study investigates the effect of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate change on catchment hydrology and soil erosion in the Dano catchment in south-western Burkina Faso based on hydrological and soil erosion modeling. The past LULC change is studied using land use maps of the years 1990, 2000, 2007 and 2013. Based on these maps future LULC scenarios were developed for the years 2019, 2025 and 2030. The observed past and modeled future LULC are used to feed SHETRAN, a hydrological and soil erosion model. Observed and modeled climate data cover the period 1990-2030. The isolated influence of LULC change assuming a constant climate is simulated by applying the seven LULC maps under observed climate data of the period 1990-2015. The isolated effect of climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5 of CCLM4-8) is studied by applying the LULC map of 1990 to the period 1990-2032. Additionally, we combined past modeled climate data and past observed LULC maps. Two chronological and continuous simulations were used to estimate the impact of LULC in the past and in the future by gradually applying the LULC maps. These simulations consider the combined impact of LULC and climate change. The simulations that assumed a constant climate and a changing LULC show increasing water yield (3.6%-46.5%) and mainly increasing specific sediment yield (-3.3%-52.6%). The simulations that assume constant LULC and climate as changing factor indicate increases in water yield of 24.5% to 46.7% and in sediment yield of 31.1% to 54.7% between the periods 1990-2005 and 2006-2032. The continuous simulations signal a clear increase in water yield (20.3%-73.4%) and specific sediment yield (24.7% to 90.1%). Actual evapotranspiration is estimated to change by between -7.3% (only LUCC) to +3.3% (only climate change). When comparing observed LULC and climate change alone, climate change has a larger impact on discharge and sediment yield, but LULC amplifies climate change impacts strongly. However, future LULC (2019-2030) will have a stronger impact as currently observed.}, }
@article {pmid30409881, year = {2018}, author = {Kubelka, V and Šálek, M and Tomkovich, P and Végvári, Z and Freckleton, RP and Székely, T}, title = {Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6415}, pages = {680-683}, doi = {10.1126/science.aat8695}, pmid = {30409881}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Ongoing climate change is thought to disrupt trophic relationships, with consequences for complex interspecific interactions, yet the effects of climate change on species interactions are poorly understood, and such effects have not been documented at a global scale. Using a single database of 38,191 nests from 237 populations, we found that shorebirds have experienced a worldwide increase in nest predation over the past 70 years. Historically, there existed a latitudinal gradient in nest predation, with the highest rates in the tropics; however, this pattern has been recently reversed in the Northern Hemisphere, most notably in the Arctic. This increased nest predation is consistent with climate-induced shifts in predator-prey relationships.}, }
@article {pmid30409435, year = {2018}, author = {Godin-Beekmann, S}, title = {[Impact of climate change and ozone layer evolution on surface ultraviolet radiation].}, journal = {Annales de dermatologie et de venereologie}, volume = {145}, number = {12S}, pages = {S7-S8}, doi = {10.1016/j.annder.2018.09.159}, pmid = {30409435}, issn = {0151-9638}, }
@article {pmid30408274, year = {2019}, author = {Bryndum-Buchholz, A and Tittensor, DP and Blanchard, JL and Cheung, WWL and Coll, M and Galbraith, ED and Jennings, S and Maury, O and Lotze, HK}, title = {Twenty-first-century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {459-472}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14512}, pmid = {30408274}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; *Biomass ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; *Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%-30% (±12%-17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%-80% (±35%-200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.}, }
@article {pmid30408266, year = {2018}, author = {Salas, RN and Slutzman, JE and Sorensen, C and Lemery, J and Hess, JJ}, title = {Climate Change and Health: An Urgent Call to Academic Emergency Medicine.}, journal = {Academic emergency medicine : official journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/acem.13657}, pmid = {30408266}, issn = {1553-2712}, }
@article {pmid30408043, year = {2018}, author = {Montero, N and Dei Marcovaldi, MAG and Lopez-Mendilaharsu, M and Santos, AS and Santos, AJB and Fuentes, MMPB}, title = {Warmer and wetter conditions will reduce offspring production of hawksbill turtles in Brazil under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {e0204188}, pmid = {30408043}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Humidity ; *Models, Biological ; Reproduction/physiology ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to impact animals that are heavily reliant on environmental factors, such as sea turtles, since the incubation of their eggs, hatching success and sex ratio are influenced by the environment in which eggs incubate. As climate change progresses it is therefore important to understand how climatic conditions influence their reproductive output and the ramifications to population stability. Here, we examined the influences of five climatic variables (air temperature, accumulated and average precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at different temporal scales on hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) hatchling production at ten nesting beaches within two regions of Brazil (five nesting beaches in Rio Grande do Norte and five in Bahia). Air temperature and accumulated precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hawksbill hatching success (number of eggs hatched within a nest) across Brazil and in Rio Grande do Norte, while air temperature and average precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hatching success at Bahia. Solar radiation was the main climatic driver of emergence success (number of hatchlings that emerged from total hatched eggs within a nest) at both regions. Warmer temperatures and higher solar radiation had negative effects on hatchling production, while wetter conditions had a positive effect. Conservative and extreme climate scenarios show air temperatures are projected to increase at this site, while precipitation projections vary between scenarios and regions throughout the 21st century. We predicted hatching success of undisturbed nests (no recorded depredation or storm-related impacts) will decrease in Brazil by 2100 as a result of how this population is influenced by local climate. This study shows the determining effects of different climate variables and their combinations on an important and critically endangered marine species.}, }
@article {pmid30408029, year = {2018}, author = {Alexander, KA and Heaney, AK and Shaman, J}, title = {Hydrometeorology and flood pulse dynamics drive diarrheal disease outbreaks and increase vulnerability to climate change in surface-water-dependent populations: A retrospective analysis.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {e1002688}, pmid = {30408029}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impacts of climate change on surface water, waterborne disease, and human health remain a growing area of concern, particularly in Africa, where diarrheal disease is one of the most important health threats to children under 5 years of age. Little is known about the role of surface water and annual flood dynamics (flood pulse) on waterborne disease and human health nor about the expected impact of climate change on surface-water-dependent populations.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the Chobe River in northern Botswana, a flood pulse river-floodplain system, we applied multimodel inference approaches assessing the influence of river height, water quality (bimonthly counts of Escherichia coli and total suspended solids [TSS], 2011-2017), and meteorological variability on weekly diarrheal case reports among children under 5 presenting to health facilities (n = 10 health facilities, January 2007-June 2017). We assessed diarrheal cases by clinical characteristics and season across age groups using monthly outpatient data (January 1998-June 2017). A strong seasonal pattern was identified, with 2 outbreaks occurring regularly in the wet and dry seasons. The timing of outbreaks diverged from that at the level of the country, where surface water is largely absent. Across age groups, the number of diarrheal cases was greater, on average, during the dry season. Demographic and clinical characteristics varied by season, underscoring the importance of environmental drivers. In the wet season, rainfall (8-week lag) had a significant influence on under-5 diarrhea, with a 10-mm increase in rainfall associated with an estimated 6.5% rise in the number of cases. Rainfall, minimum temperature, and river height were predictive of E. coli concentration, and increases in E. coli in the river were positively associated with diarrheal cases. In the dry season, river height (1-week lag) and maximum temperature (1- and 4-week lag) were significantly associated with diarrheal cases. During this period, a 1-meter drop in river height corresponded to an estimated 16.7% and 16.1% increase in reported diarrhea with a 1- and 4-week lag, respectively. In this region, as floodwaters receded from the surrounding floodplains, TSS levels increased and were positively associated with diarrheal cases (0- and 3-week lag). Populations living in this region utilized improved water sources, suggesting that hydrological variability and rapid water quality shifts in surface waters may compromise water treatment processes. Limitations include the potential influence of health beliefs and health seeking behaviors on data obtained through passive surveillance.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In flood pulse river-floodplain systems, hydrology and water quality dynamics can be highly variable, potentially impacting conventional water treatment facilities and the production of safe drinking water. In Southern Africa, climate change is predicted to intensify hydrological variability and the frequency of extreme weather events, amplifying the public health threat of waterborne disease in surface-water-dependent populations. Water sector development should be prioritized with urgency, incorporating technologies that are robust to local environmental conditions and expected climate-driven impacts. In populations with high HIV burdens, expansion of diarrheal disease surveillance and intervention strategies may also be needed. As annual flood pulse processes are predominantly influenced by climate controls in distant regions, country-level data may be inadequate to refine predictions of climate-health interactions in these systems.}, }
@article {pmid30406962, year = {2019}, author = {Esquivel-Muelbert, A and Baker, TR and Dexter, KG and Lewis, SL and Brienen, RJW and Feldpausch, TR and Lloyd, J and Monteagudo-Mendoza, A and Arroyo, L and Álvarez-Dávila, E and Higuchi, N and Marimon, BS and Marimon-Junior, BH and Silveira, M and Vilanova, E and Gloor, E and Malhi, Y and Chave, J and Barlow, J and Bonal, D and Davila Cardozo, N and Erwin, T and Fauset, S and Hérault, B and Laurance, S and Poorter, L and Qie, L and Stahl, C and Sullivan, MJP and Ter Steege, H and Vos, VA and Zuidema, PA and Almeida, E and Almeida de Oliveira, E and Andrade, A and Vieira, SA and Aragão, L and Araujo-Murakami, A and Arets, E and Aymard C, GA and Baraloto, C and Camargo, PB and Barroso, JG and Bongers, F and Boot, R and Camargo, JL and Castro, W and Chama Moscoso, V and Comiskey, J and Cornejo Valverde, F and Lola da Costa, AC and Del Aguila Pasquel, J and Di Fiore, A and Fernanda Duque, L and Elias, F and Engel, J and Flores Llampazo, G and Galbraith, D and Herrera Fernández, R and Honorio Coronado, E and Hubau, W and Jimenez-Rojas, E and Lima, AJN and Umetsu, RK and Laurance, W and Lopez-Gonzalez, G and Lovejoy, T and Aurelio Melo Cruz, O and Morandi, PS and Neill, D and Núñez Vargas, P and Pallqui Camacho, NC and Parada Gutierrez, A and Pardo, G and Peacock, J and Peña-Claros, M and Peñuela-Mora, MC and Petronelli, P and Pickavance, GC and Pitman, N and Prieto, A and Quesada, C and Ramírez-Angulo, H and Réjou-Méchain, M and Restrepo Correa, Z and Roopsind, A and Rudas, A and Salomão, R and Silva, N and Silva Espejo, J and Singh, J and Stropp, J and Terborgh, J and Thomas, R and Toledo, M and Torres-Lezama, A and Valenzuela Gamarra, L and van de Meer, PJ and van der Heijden, G and van der Hout, P and Vasquez Martinez, R and Vela, C and Vieira, ICG and Phillips, OL}, title = {Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {39-56}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14413}, pmid = {30406962}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//European Research Council (ERC)/International ; }, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Brazil ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Seasons ; Trees/classification/physiology ; Tropical Climate ; Water ; }, abstract = {Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large-statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry-affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet-affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry-affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate-change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole-community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large-statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30405277, year = {2018}, author = {Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Guo, Y and Sera, F and Huber, V and Schleussner, CF and Mitchell, D and Tong, S and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M and Saldiva, PHN and Lavigne, E and Correa, PM and Ortega, NV and Kan, H and Osorio, S and Kyselý, J and Urban, A and Jaakkola, JJK and Ryti, NRI and Pascal, M and Goodman, PG and Zeka, A and Michelozzi, P and Scortichini, M and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y and Hurtado-Diaz, M and Cruz, J and Seposo, X and Kim, H and Tobias, A and Íñiguez, C and Forsberg, B and Åström, DO and Ragettli, MS and Röösli, M and Guo, YL and Wu, CF and Zanobetti, A and Schwartz, J and Bell, ML and Dang, TN and Van, DD and Heaviside, C and Vardoulakis, S and Hajat, S and Haines, A and Armstrong, B and Ebi, KL and Gasparrini, A}, title = {Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {150}, number = {3-4}, pages = {391-402}, pmid = {30405277}, issn = {0165-0009}, support = {MR/M022625/1//Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to Bhold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C&quot;. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.}, }
@article {pmid30404727, year = {2018}, author = {Obradovich, N and Migliorini, R}, title = {Sleep and the human impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Sleep medicine reviews}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.smrv.2018.09.002}, pmid = {30404727}, issn = {1532-2955}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Sleep/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid30402535, year = {2018}, author = {d'Alpoim Guedes, J and Bocinsky, RK}, title = {Climate change stimulated agricultural innovation and exchange across Asia.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {10}, pages = {eaar4491}, pmid = {30402535}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Ancient farmers experienced climate change at the local level through variations in the yields of their staple crops. However, archaeologists have had difficulty in determining where, when, and how changes in climate affected ancient farmers. We model how several key transitions in temperature affected the productivity of six grain crops across Eurasia. Cooling events between 3750 and 3000 cal. BP lead humans in parts of the Tibetan Plateau and in Central Asia to diversify their crops. A second event at 2000 cal. BP leads farmers in central China to also diversify their cropping systems and to develop systems that allowed transport of grains from southern to northern China. In other areas where crop returns fared even worse, humans reduced their risk by increasing investment in nomadic pastoralism and developing long-distance networks of trade. By translating changes in climatic variables into factors that mattered to ancient farmers, we situate the adaptive strategies they developed to deal with variance in crop returns in the context of environmental and climatic changes.}, }
@article {pmid30402056, year = {2018}, author = {Bezeng, BS and Tesfamichael, SG and Dayananda, B and , }, title = {Predicting the effect of climate change on a range-restricted lizard in southeastern Australia.}, journal = {Current zoology}, volume = {64}, number = {2}, pages = {165-171}, pmid = {30402056}, issn = {1674-5507}, abstract = {Climate change is ranked as one of the most severe threats to global biodiversity. This global phenomenon is particularly true for reptiles whose biology and ecology are closely linked to climate. In this study, we used over 1,300 independent occurrence points and different climate change emission scenarios to evaluate the potential risk of changing climatic conditions on the current and future potential distribution of a rock-dwelling lizard; the velvet gecko. Furthermore, we investigated if the current extent of protected area networks in Australia captures the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Our results show that climate change projections for the year 2075 have the potential to alter the distribution of the velvet gecko in southeastern Australia. Specifically, climate change may favor the range expansion of this species to encompass more suitable habitats. The trend of range expansion was qualitatively similar across the different climate change scenarios used. Additionally, we observed that the current network of protected areas in southeast Australia does not fully account for the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Ongoing climate change may profoundly affect the potential range distribution of the velvet gecko population. Therefore, the restricted habitat of the velvet geckos should be the focus of intensive pre-emptive management efforts. This management prioritization should be extended to encompass the increases in suitable habitats observed in this study in order to maximize the microhabitats available for the survival of this species.}, }
@article {pmid30401921, year = {2018}, author = {Bauduin, S and McIntire, E and St-Laurent, MH and Cumming, SG}, title = {Compensatory conservation measures for an endangered caribou population under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {16438}, pmid = {30401921}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Future human land use and climate change may disrupt movement behaviors of terrestrial animals, thereby altering the ability of individuals to move across a landscape. Some of the expected changes result from processes whose effects will be difficult to alter, such as global climate change. We present a novel framework in which we use models to (1) identify the ecological changes from these difficult-to-alter processes, as well as (2) the potential conservation measures that are best able to compensate for these changes. We illustrated this framework with the case of an endangered caribou population in Québec, Canada. We coupled a spatially explicit individual-based movement model with a range of landscape scenarios to assess the impacts of varying degrees of climate change, and the ability of conservation actions to compensate for such impacts on caribou movement behaviors. We found that (1) climate change impacts reduced movement potential, and that (2) the complete restoration of secondary roads inside protected areas was able to fully offset this reduction, suggesting that road restoration would be an effective compensatory conservation action. By evaluating conservation actions via landscape use simulated by an individual-based model, we were able to identify compensatory conservation options for an endangered species facing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30400337, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, GJ and Bergquist, R}, title = {Potential Impact of Climate Change on Schistosomiasis: A Global Assessment Attempt.}, journal = {Tropical medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/tropicalmed3040117}, pmid = {30400337}, issn = {2414-6366}, abstract = {Based on an ensemble of global circulation models (GCMs), four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and several ongoing and planned Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global, average temperatures will increase by at least 1.5 °C in the near future and more by the end of the century if greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions are not genuinely tempered. While the RCPs are indicative of various amounts of GHGs in the atmosphere the CMIPs are designed to improve the workings of the GCMs. We chose RCP4.5 which represented a medium GHG emission increase and CMIP5, the most recently completed CMIP phase. Combining this meteorological model with a biological counterpart model accounted for replication and survival of the snail intermediate host as well as maturation of the parasite stage inside the snail at different ambient temperatures. The potential geographical distribution of the three main schistosome species: Schistosoma japonicum, S.mansoni and S.haematobium was investigated with reference to their different transmission capabilities at the monthly mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month(s) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month(s). The set of six maps representing the predicted situations in 2021⁻2050 and 2071⁻2100 for each species mainly showed increased transmission areas for all three species but they also left room for potential shrinkages in certain areas.}, }
@article {pmid30398569, year = {2018}, author = {Clearfield, M and Davis, G and Weis, J and Gayer, G and Shubrook, JH}, title = {Cardiovascular Disease as a Result of the Interactions Between Obesity, Climate Change, and Inflammation: The COCCI Syndemic.}, journal = {The Journal of the American Osteopathic Association}, volume = {118}, number = {11}, pages = {719-729}, doi = {10.7556/jaoa.2018.157}, pmid = {30398569}, issn = {1945-1997}, abstract = {Obesity and climate change conspire to create an environment in which subclinical vascular inflammation leads to progressive atherosclerosis, which contributes to the number 1 cause of global mortality: cardiovascular disease. The syndemic model requires 2 or more diseases or contributors to disease (such as obesity and climate change) clustering within a specific population in addition to the associated societal and social factors, ultimately creating an environment supportive of a greater adverse interaction. This article explores the syndemic of obesity and climate change as a driver for cardiovascular disease.}, }
@article {pmid30395645, year = {2018}, author = {Jaime, R and Alcántara, JM and Manzaneda, AJ and Rey, PJ}, title = {Climate change decreases suitable areas for rapeseed cultivation in Europe but provides new opportunities for white mustard as an alternative oilseed for biofuel production.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {e0207124}, pmid = {30395645}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Oilseed crops, including several mustards, are cultivated as biofuel sources worldwide. However, common mustard crops (e.g., the rapeseed Brassica napus) grow naturally in mesic temperate regions, which are expected to be impaired by global warming and increased aridity. In particular, increased aridity is predicted to reduce the oil concentration and seed yield of rapeseed crops. There is therefore an urgent need to identify alternative bioenergy crops that are preadapted to future climatic conditions. An alternative to conventional Brassica species for biodiesel production is the white mustard Sinapis alba, which is native to the circum-Mediterranean region and has a high seed lipid content. S. alba grows spontaneously in olive groves and other widespread Mediterranean crops; accordingly, it could be easily cultivated by companion planting to improve ecosystem function by decreasing soil loss, controlling microbial disease, and assisting in the maintenance of biodiversity. In this study, using species distribution modeling, we predicted climatically suitable areas for the cultivation of S. alba in Western Europe across the Mediterranean Basin under present climatic conditions and several climate change scenarios. We show that current climatically suitable areas for S. alba cultivation do not overlap with those for B. napus. Unlike B. napus, S. alba could be cultivated throughout most of the circum-Mediterranean region. According to our models, increases in aridity and annual mean temperatures will expand the climatically suitable areas for S. alba in the Mediterranean Basin. However, suitable areas for the cultivation of B. napus will decrease significantly in Western Europe. Our results indicate that S. alba is a strong, environmentally safe candidate for biofuel production throughout the Mediterranean Basin and other Western European countries, especially under climate change scenarios that are expected to impair current oilseed crops.}, }
@article {pmid30393928, year = {2019}, author = {Lehikoinen, P and Santangeli, A and Jaatinen, K and Rajasärkkä, A and Lehikoinen, A}, title = {Protected areas act as a buffer against detrimental effects of climate change-Evidence from large-scale, long-term abundance data.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {304-313}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14461}, pmid = {30393928}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Finland ; }, abstract = {Climate change is driving species to shift their distributions toward high altitudes and latitudes, while habitat loss and fragmentation may hamper species ability to follow their climatic envelope. These two drivers of change may act in synergy, with particularly disastrous impacts on biodiversity. Protected areas, PAs, may thus represent crucial buffers against the compounded effects of climate change and habitat loss. However, large-scale studies assessing the performance of PAs as such buffers remain scarce and are largely based on species occurrence data. Conversely, abundance data have proven to be more reliable for addressing changes in wildlife populations under climate change. We evaluated changes in bird abundance from the 1970s-80s to the 2000s inside and outside PAs at the trailing range edge of 30 northern bird species and at the leading range edge of 70 southern species. Abundances of retracting northern species were higher and declined less inside PAs at their trailing range edge. The positive effect of PAs on bird abundances was particularly marked in northern species that rely strongly on PAs, that is, their density distribution is largely confined within PAs. These species were nearly absent outside PAs in the 2000s. The abundances of southern species were in general lower inside PAs and increased less from the 70s-80s to 2000s. Nonetheless, species with high reliance on PAs had much higher abundances inside than outside PAs in the 2000s. These results show that PAs are essential in mitigating the retraction of northern species, but also facilitate northward expansions of southern species highly reliant on PAs. Our study provides empirical evidence documenting the role of PAs in facilitating species to adjust to rapidly changing climatic conditions, thereby contributing to the mitigation of impending biodiversity loss. PAs may thus allow time for initiating wider conservation programs on currently unprotected land.}, }
@article {pmid30393451, year = {2018}, author = {Hamidov, A and Helming, K and Bellocchi, G and Bojar, W and Dalgaard, T and Ghaley, BB and Hoffmann, C and Holman, I and Holzkämper, A and Krzeminska, D and Kværnø, SH and Lehtonen, H and Niedrist, G and Øygarden, L and Reidsma, P and Roggero, PP and Rusu, T and Santos, C and Seddaiu, G and Skarbøvik, E and Ventrella, D and Żarski, J and Schönhart, M}, title = {Impacts of climate change adaptation options on soil functions: A review of European case-studies.}, journal = {Land degradation &amp; development}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {2378-2389}, pmid = {30393451}, issn = {1099-145X}, abstract = {Soils are vital for supporting food security and other ecosystem services. Climate change can affect soil functions both directly and indirectly. Direct effects include temperature, precipitation, and moisture regime changes. Indirect effects include those that are induced by adaptations such as irrigation, crop rotation changes, and tillage practices. Although extensive knowledge is available on the direct effects, an understanding of the indirect effects of agricultural adaptation options is less complete. A review of 20 agricultural adaptation case-studies across Europe was conducted to assess implications to soil threats and soil functions and the link to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The major findings are as follows: (a) adaptation options reflect local conditions; (b) reduced soil erosion threats and increased soil organic carbon are expected, although compaction may increase in some areas; (c) most adaptation options are anticipated to improve the soil functions of food and biomass production, soil organic carbon storage, and storing, filtering, transforming, and recycling capacities, whereas possible implications for soil biodiversity are largely unknown; and (d) the linkage between soil functions and the SDGs implies improvements to SDG 2 (achieving food security and promoting sustainable agriculture) and SDG 13 (taking action on climate change), whereas the relationship to SDG 15 (using terrestrial ecosystems sustainably) is largely unknown. The conclusion is drawn that agricultural adaptation options, even when focused on increasing yields, have the potential to outweigh the negative direct effects of climate change on soil degradation in many European regions.}, }
@article {pmid30390399, year = {2019}, author = {Reside, AE and Critchell, K and Crayn, DM and Goosem, M and Goosem, S and Hoskin, CJ and Sydes, T and Vanderduys, EP and Pressey, RL}, title = {Beyond the model: expert knowledge improves predictions of species' fates under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {e01824}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1824}, pmid = {30390399}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {//Australian Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {The need to proactively manage landscapes and species to aid their adaptation to climate change is widely acknowledged. Current approaches to prioritizing investment in species conservation generally rely on correlative models, which predict the likely fate of species under different climate change scenarios. Yet, while model statistics can be improved by refining modeling techniques, gaps remain in understanding the relationship between model performance and ecological reality. To investigate this, we compared standard correlative species distribution models to highly accurate, fine-scale, distribution models. We critically assessed the ecological realism of each species' model, using expert knowledge of the geography and habitat in the study area and the biology of the study species. Using interactive software and an iterative vetting with experts, we identified seven general principles that explain why the distribution modeling under- or overestimated habitat suitability, under both current and predicted future climates. Importantly, we found that, while temperature estimates can be dramatically improved through better climate downscaling, many models still inaccurately reflected moisture availability. Furthermore, the correlative models did not account for biotic factors, such as disease or competitor species, and were unable to account for the likely presence of micro refugia. Under-performing current models resulted in widely divergent future projections of species' distributions. Expert vetting identified regions that were likely to contain micro refugia, even where the fine-scale future projections of species distributions predicted population losses. Based on the results, we identify four priority conservation actions required for more effective climate change adaptation responses. This approach to improving the ecological realism of correlative models to understand climate change impacts on species can be applied broadly to improve the evidence base underpinning management responses.}, }
@article {pmid30385868, year = {2018}, author = {Lim, YK and Schubert, SD and Kovach, R and Molod, AM and Pawson, S}, title = {The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {16172}, pmid = {30385868}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; 802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; 802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; 802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; 802678.02.17.01.29//NASA | Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/ ; }, abstract = {The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 °C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 °C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.}, }
@article {pmid30385766, year = {2018}, author = {Hummel, M and Hallahan, BF and Brychkova, G and Ramirez-Villegas, J and Guwela, V and Chataika, B and Curley, E and McKeown, PC and Morrison, L and Talsma, EF and Beebe, S and Jarvis, A and Chirwa, R and Spillane, C}, title = {Reduction in nutritional quality and growing area suitability of common bean under climate change induced drought stress in Africa.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {16187}, pmid = {30385766}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {CropBioFort project funded by the Irish Research Council&amp;#x2019;s New Foundations program//Irish Research Council/ ; GOIPG/2014/1021//Irish Research Council/ ; GOIPG/2014/1021 and the CropBioFort project//Irish Research Council/ ; 13/IA/1820//Science Foundation Ireland (SFI)/ ; 13/IA/1820//Science Foundation Ireland (SFI)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts on food security will involve negative impacts on crop yields, and potentially on the nutritional quality of staple crops. Common bean is the most important grain legume staple crop for human diets and nutrition worldwide. We demonstrate by crop modeling that the majority of current common bean growing areas in southeastern Africa will become unsuitable for bean cultivation by the year 2050. We further demonstrate reductions in yields of available common bean varieties in a field trial that is a climate analogue site for future predicted drought conditions. Little is known regarding the impact of climate change induced abiotic stresses on the nutritional quality of common beans. Our analysis of nutritional and antinutritional compounds reveals that iron levels in common bean grains are reduced under future climate-scenario relevant drought stress conditions. In contrast, the levels of protein, zinc, lead and phytic acid increase in the beans under such drought stress conditions. This indicates that under climate-change induced drought scenarios, future bean servings by 2050 will likely have lower nutritional quality, posing challenges for ongoing climate-proofing of bean production for yields, nutritional quality, human health, and food security.}, }
@article {pmid30380686, year = {2018}, author = {Bishop-Williams, KE and Berrang-Ford, L and Sargeant, JM and Pearl, DL and Lwasa, S and Namanya, DB and Edge, VL and Cunsolo, A and ,  and ,  and Huang, Y and Ford, J and Garcia, P and Harper, SL}, title = {Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {30380686}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {X//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Disaster Planning/*methods ; Female ; *Health Services Needs and Demand ; Hospitalization/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Theoretical ; Poisson Distribution ; Seasons ; Uganda ; *Weather ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Background: Season and weather are associated with many health outcomes, which can influence hospital admission rates. We examined associations between hospital admissions (all diagnoses) and local meteorological parameters in Southwestern Uganda, with the aim of supporting hospital planning and preparedness in the context of climate change. Methods: Hospital admissions data and meteorological data were collected from Bwindi Community Hospital and a satellite database of weather conditions, respectively (2011 to 2014). Descriptive statistics were used to describe admission patterns. A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was fitted to investigate associations between hospital admissions and season, precipitation, and temperature. Results: Admission counts were highest for acute respiratory infections, malaria, and acute gastrointestinal illness, which are climate-sensitive diseases. Hospital admissions were 1.16 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.31; p = 0.008) times higher during extreme high temperatures (i.e., >95th percentile) on the day of admission. Hospital admissions association with season depended on year; admissions were higher in the dry season than the rainy season every year, except for 2014. Discussion: Effective adaptation strategy characteristics include being low-cost and quick and practical to implement at local scales. Herein, we illustrate how analyzing hospital data alongside meteorological parameters may inform climate-health planning in low-resource contexts.}, }
@article {pmid30380174, year = {2018}, author = {Li, J and Li, D and Xue, Y and Wu, B and He, X and Liu, F}, title = {Identifying potential refugia and corridors under climate change: A case study of endangered Sichuan golden monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Qinling Mountains, China.}, journal = {American journal of primatology}, volume = {80}, number = {11}, pages = {e22929}, doi = {10.1002/ajp.22929}, pmid = {30380174}, issn = {1098-2345}, support = {2013BAD03B03//National Science &amp; Technology Pillar Program for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period-Technology of Habitat Assessment and Restoration for Shennongjia Golden Monkey/ ; 2018M631624//Project Funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens endangered species and challenges current conservation strategies. Effective conservation requires vulnerability assessments for species susceptible to climate change and adaptive strategies to mitigate threats associated with climate. In this paper, we used the Maxent to model the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Sichuan golden monkey Rhinopithecus roxellana. Our results showed that (i) suitable habitat for Sichuan golden monkey was predicted to decrease by 37% in 2050s under climate change; (ii) the mean elevations of suitable habitat in the 2050s was estimated to shift 160 m higher; (iii) nature reserves protect 62% of current suitable habitat and 56% of future suitable habitat; and (iv) 49% of current suitable habitat was predicted to be vulnerable to future climate change. Given these results, we proposed conservation implications to mitigate the impacts of climate change on Sichuan golden monkey, including adjusting range of national park, establishing habitat corridors, and conducting long-term monitoring.}, }
@article {pmid30379857, year = {2018}, author = {Case, MJ and Stinson, KA}, title = {Climate change impacts on the distribution of the allergenic plant, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in the eastern United States.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0205677}, pmid = {30379857}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Ambrosia/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; *Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal ; United States ; Weed Control ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting the growth, phenology, and distribution of species across northeastern United States. In response to these changes, some species have been adversely impacted while others have benefited. One species that has benefited from climate change, historically and in response to experimental treatments, is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a widely distributed annual weed and a leading cause of hay fever in North America. To better understand how climate change may affect the distribution of common ragweed, we built a maximum entropy (Maxent) predictive model using climate and bioclimatic data and over 700 observations across the eastern U.S. Our model performed well with an AUC score of 0.765 using four uncorrelated variables, including precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, August precipitation, and January maximum temperature. After building and testing our model, we then projected potential future common ragweed distribution using a suite of 13 global climate models (GCMs) under two future greenhouse gas scenarios for mid and late-century. In addition to providing georeferenced hot spots of potential future expansion, we also provide a metric of confidence by evaluating the number of GCMs that agree. We show a substantial contraction of common ragweed in central Florida, southern Appalachian Mountains, and northeastern Virginia and areas of potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, notably in northeastern U.S. However, the vast majority of this increase is projected to occur by mid-century and may be moderated somewhat by the 2070s, implying that common ragweed may be sensitive to climatic variability. Although other factors and modeling approaches should be explored, we offer preliminary insight into where common ragweed might be a new concern in the future. Due to the health impacts of ragweed, local weed control boards may be well advised to monitor areas of expansion and potentially increase eradication efforts.}, }
@article {pmid30379845, year = {2018}, author = {Vicens, J and Bueno-Guerra, N and Gutiérrez-Roig, M and Gracia-Lázaro, C and Gómez-Gardeñes, J and Perelló, J and Sánchez, A and Moreno, Y and Duch, J}, title = {Resource heterogeneity leads to unjust effort distribution in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0204369}, pmid = {30379845}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Awareness ; Child ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Cooperative Behavior ; Female ; Games, Experimental ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Risk ; *Social Justice ; Unsupervised Machine Learning ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Climate change mitigation is a shared global challenge that involves collective action of a set of individuals with different tendencies to cooperation. However, we lack an understanding of the effect of resource inequality when diverse actors interact together towards a common goal. Here, we report the results of a collective-risk dilemma experiment in which groups of individuals were initially given either equal or unequal endowments. We found that the effort distribution was highly inequitable, with participants with fewer resources contributing significantly more to the public goods than the richer -sometimes twice as much. An unsupervised learning algorithm classified the subjects according to their individual behavior, finding the poorest participants within two &quot;generous clusters&quot; and the richest into a &quot;greedy cluster&quot;. Our results suggest that policies would benefit from educating about fairness and reinforcing climate justice actions addressed to vulnerable people instead of focusing on understanding generic or global climate consequences.}, }
@article {pmid30378103, year = {2019}, author = {Clewlow, HL and Takahashi, A and Watanabe, S and Votier, SC and Downie, R and Ratcliffe, N}, title = {Niche partitioning of sympatric penguins by leapfrog foraging appears to be resilient to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {88}, number = {2}, pages = {223-235}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12919}, pmid = {30378103}, issn = {1365-2656}, support = {NE/L002434/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Interspecific competition can drive niche partitioning along multidimensional axes, including allochrony. Competitor matching will arise where the phenology of sympatric species with similar ecological requirements responds to climate change at different rates such that allochrony is reduced. Our study quantifies the degree of niche segregation in foraging areas and depths that arises from allochrony in sympatric Adélie and chinstrap penguins and explores its resilience to climate change. Three-dimensional tracking data were sampled during all stages of the breeding season and were used to parameterise a behaviour-based model that quantified spatial overlap of foraging areas under different scenarios of allochrony. The foraging ranges of the two species were similar within breeding stages, but differences in their foraging ranges between stages, combined with the observed allochrony of 28 days, resulted in them leapfrogging each other through the breeding season such that they were exploiting different foraging locations on the same calendar dates. Allochrony reduced spatial overlap in the peripheral utilisation distribution of the two species by 54.0% over the entire breeding season, compared to a scenario where the two species bred synchronously. Analysis of long-term phenology data revealed that both species advanced their laying dates in relation to October air temperatures at the same rate, preserving allochrony and niche partitioning. However, if allochrony is reduced by just a single day, the spatial overlap of the core utilisation distribution increased by an average of 2.1% over the entire breeding season. Niche partitioning between the two species by allochrony appears to be resilient to climate change and so competitor matching cannot be implicated in the observed population declines of the two penguin species across the Western Antarctic Peninsula.}, }
@article {pmid30377877, year = {2018}, author = {Patz, JA}, title = {Altered Disease Risk from Climate Change.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {693-694}, pmid = {30377877}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disease ; Ecology ; Humans ; Public Health ; *Risk Assessment ; }, }
@article {pmid30375880, year = {2018}, author = {Trájer, AJ and Nagy, G and Domokos, E}, title = {Exploration of the heterogeneous effect of climate change on ozone concentration in an urban environment.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2018.1539703}, pmid = {30375880}, issn = {1369-1619}, abstract = {Ozone is a significant causative agent of mortality in cities. Urban environments are expressly vulnerable to global warming because of the extensive emission of air pollutants with urban heat island effect enhancing much rapidly the ozone concentration than in the less urbanized regions. This effect previously was not studied in local scale. It was hypothesized that climate change will cause heterogenic increase of ozone concentration in the different parts of the cities. To study this effect, the near-surface ozone concentration of 10 points of a Hungarian city was measured and modeled. At first step, the local correlations between solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and the near surface ozone concentrations at 3 m height were determined, specifying the local ozone-producing conditions. Then, based on the scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th assessment report, the future seasonal near-surface ozone concentrations were modeled. Based on the model, it was determined that climate change will result in a heterogenic increase of near-surface ozone concentration.}, }
@article {pmid30374458, year = {2018}, author = {Ladau, J and Shi, Y and Jing, X and He, JS and Chen, L and Lin, X and Fierer, N and Gilbert, JA and Pollard, KS and Chu, H}, title = {Existing Climate Change Will Lead to Pronounced Shifts in the Diversity of Soil Prokaryotes.}, journal = {mSystems}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {30374458}, issn = {2379-5077}, abstract = {Soil bacteria are key to ecosystem function and maintenance of soil fertility. Leveraging associations of current geographic distributions of bacteria with historic climate, we predict that soil bacterial diversity will increase across the majority (∼75%) of the Tibetan Plateau and northern North America if bacterial communities equilibrate with existing climatic conditions. This prediction is possible because the current distributions of soil bacteria have stronger correlations with climate from ∼50 years ago than with current climate. This lag is likely associated with the time it takes for soil properties to adjust to changes in climate. The predicted changes are location specific and differ across bacterial taxa, including some bacteria that are predicted to have reductions in their distributions. These findings illuminate the widespread potential of climate change to influence belowground diversity and the importance of considering bacterial communities when assessing climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. IMPORTANCE There have been many studies highlighting how plant and animal communities lag behind climate change, causing extinction and diversity debts that will slowly be paid as communities equilibrate. By virtue of their short generation times and dispersal abilities, soil bacteria might be expected to respond to climate change quickly and to be effectively in equilibrium with current climatic conditions. We found strong evidence to the contrary in Tibet and North America. These findings could significantly improve understanding of climate impacts on soil microbial communities.}, }
@article {pmid30373825, year = {2018}, author = {Freeman, BG and Scholer, MN and Ruiz-Gutierrez, V and Fitzpatrick, JW}, title = {Climate change causes upslope shifts and mountaintop extirpations in a tropical bird community.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {47}, pages = {11982-11987}, pmid = {30373825}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animal Migration/physiology ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Forecasting ; Homing Behavior ; Peru ; Population Dynamics/*trends ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Montane species worldwide are shifting upslope in response to recent temperature increases. These upslope shifts are predicted to lead to mountaintop extinctions of species that live only near mountain summits, but empirical examples of populations that have disappeared are sparse. We show that recent warming constitutes an &quot;escalator to extinction&quot; for birds on a remote Peruvian mountain-high-elevation species have declined in both range size and abundance, and several previously common mountaintop residents have disappeared from the local community. Our findings support projections that warming will likely drive widespread extirpations and extinctions of high-elevation taxa in the tropical Andes. Such climate change-driven mountaintop extirpations may be more likely in the tropics, where temperature seems to exert a stronger control on species' range limits than in the temperate zone. In contrast, we show that lowland bird species at our study site are expanding in range size as they shift their upper limits upslope and may thus benefit from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30373158, year = {2018}, author = {Ebi, KL and Berry, P and Hayes, K and Boyer, C and Sellers, S and Enright, PM and Hess, JJ}, title = {Stress Testing the Capacity of Health Systems to Manage Climate Change-Related Shocks and Stresses.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {30373158}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care/*methods ; Government Programs ; Health Systems Plans ; Humans ; *Public Health Practice ; Risk Assessment/methods ; }, abstract = {Vulnerability and adaptation assessments can provide valuable input to foster climate-resilient health systems. However, these assessments often do not explore the potential health risks of climate change far outside the range of recent experience with extreme weather events and other climate-related hazards. Climate and health stress tests are designed to increase the capacity of health systems and related sectors to manage potentially disruptive climate-related shocks and stresses. Stress tests focus on hypothetical scenarios, during which it would be difficult for the health system to maintain its essential function of providing services to protect population health. The stress test explores approaches to effectively manage acute and chronic climate-related events and conditions that could directly impact health systems, and climate-related events in non-health sectors that can indirectly impact health outcomes and/or health system function. We provide detailed methods and guidance for conducting climate and health stress tests, centering on three primary activities: (1) preparing and scoping the stress test; (2) successfully conducting the stress test; and (3) communicating the results to key stakeholders to facilitate policy and programmatic reforms.}, }
@article {pmid30373063, year = {2019}, author = {Parajuli, R and Thoma, G and Matlock, MD}, title = {Environmental sustainability of fruit and vegetable production supply chains in the face of climate change: A review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2863-2879}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.019}, pmid = {30373063}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; *Food Supply ; Fruit/*growth &amp; development ; Vegetables/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {This study discusses importance of assessing environmental sustainability of fruits and vegetable (F&amp;V) production sector in future climate change (CC) scenarios. For the current production scenario, life cycle environmental footprints of F&amp;V supply chain are discussed considering the influences of: agro-climates, production systems, raw material inputs, post-harvest managements to the products' yield and quality. Potential risks of CC to the sector are discussed in the context of elevated global temperature and carbon dioxide level, ozone depletion and changes in precipitation patterns. Potential risks due to CC are on the productivity and the quality of F&amp;V products, such as texture, color, maturity and nutrients. Increased risk of failure of the current crop protection strategies, e.g. due to pest infestations and different crop-water and nutrient stresses are among the short and long-term risks. It also discusses potential adaptation and mitigation measures to CC, and therefrom argues on the related environmental consequences in the supply chain. From the LCA studies, it was revealed that environmental impacts of F&amp;V supply chain varied as per agro-ecological characteristics and farming systems, e.g. greenhouse vs open-field, organic vs conventional, and grown in different agro-climatic conditions. The nexus among the climatic stresses, potential adaptation and mitigation measures, hence were in the form of potential changes in the raw material inputs and resource flows depending on the preferred future agro-management strategies and farming practices. Adaptation and other management options, included are, changes in: crop calendar, nutrient and pest management strategies, post-harvest handling and improved preservation of F&amp;V products. These are argued eventually being determining factors leading to different environmental footprints compared to the existing management scenarios. Prospective life cycle environmental evaluation of F&amp;V supply chain considering the relationship among product yield and qualities, CC stresses and potential adaptation and mitigation measures is thus a new thrust and direction.}, }
@article {pmid30370745, year = {2018}, author = {Michelozzi, P and De' Donato, F}, title = {[Climate change and air quality: a &quot;liaison dangereuse&quot;].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {42}, number = {5-6}, pages = {382-383}, doi = {10.19191/EP18.5-6.P382.112}, pmid = {30370745}, issn = {1120-9763}, }
@article {pmid30369830, year = {2018}, author = {van Lange, PAM and Rinderu, MI and Bushman, BJ}, title = {CLASH: Climate (change) and cultural evolution of intergroup conflict.}, journal = {Group processes &amp; intergroup relations : GPIR}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {457-471}, pmid = {30369830}, issn = {1368-4302}, abstract = {Aggression and violence levels generally increase as one moves closer to the equator, but why? We developed a new theoretical model, CLimate, Aggression, and Self-control in Humans (CLASH; van Lange, Rinderu, &amp; Bushman, 2017b, 2017c), to understand differences within and between countries in aggression and violence in terms of differences in climate. Colder temperatures, and especially larger degrees of seasonal variation in climate, call for individuals and groups to adopt a slower life history strategy, revealed in a greater focus on the future (vs. present) and a stronger focus on self-control-variables that are known to inhibit aggression and violence. Other variables (e.g., wealth, income inequality, parasite stress) are also linked to both climate differences and to aggression and violence differences. When people think of the consequences of climate change, they rarely think of the impact on aggression and violence levels, but they should. CLASH has broad implications for the effects of climate change on intergroup conflict.}, }
@article {pmid30369627, year = {2018}, author = {Dalla Marta, A and Eitzinger, J and Kersebaum, KC and Todorovic, M and Altobelli, F}, title = {Assessment and monitoring of crop water use and productivity in response to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of agricultural science}, volume = {156}, number = {5}, pages = {575-576}, doi = {10.1017/S002185961800076X}, pmid = {30369627}, issn = {0021-8596}, }
@article {pmid30368853, year = {2019}, author = {Bostrom, A and Hayes, AL and Crosman, KM}, title = {Efficacy, Action, and Support for Reducing Climate Change Risks.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {805-828}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13210}, pmid = {30368853}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {1430781//National Science Foundation/ ; 1463492//University of Washington/ ; //Carnegie Mellon University/ ; T32 HD007543//Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development/ ; //Shanahan Endowment Fellowship/ ; //Center for Studies in Demography &amp; Ecology/ ; }, abstract = {A growing body of research demonstrates that believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self-efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts. Despite this potentially critical role of efficacy beliefs, measures and their use vary wildly in climate change risk perception and communication research, making it hard to compare and learn from efficacy studies. To address this problem and advance our understanding of efficacy beliefs, this article makes three contributions. First, we present a theoretically motivated approach to measuring climate change mitigation efficacy, in light of diverse proposed, perceived, and previously researched strategies. Second, we test this in two national survey samples (Amazon's Mechanical Turk N = 405, GfK Knowledge Panel N = 1,820), demonstrating largely coherent beliefs by level of action and discrimination between types of efficacy. Four additive efficacy scales emerge: personal self-efficacy, personal response efficacy, government and collective self-efficacy, and government and collective response efficacy. Third, we employ the resulting efficacy scales in mediation models to test how well efficacy beliefs predict climate change policy support, controlling for specific knowledge, risk perceptions, and ideology, and allowing for mediation by concern. Concern fully mediates the relatively strong effects of perceived risk on policy support, but only partly mediates efficacy beliefs. Stronger government and collective response efficacy beliefs and personal self-efficacy beliefs are both directly and indirectly associated with greater support for reducing the risks of climate change, even after controlling for ideology and causal beliefs about climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30368676, year = {2018}, author = {Benmoussa, H and Ben Mimoun, M and Ghrab, M and Luedeling, E}, title = {Climate change threatens central Tunisian nut orchards.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {12}, pages = {2245-2255}, pmid = {30368676}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Nuts ; Pistacia/*physiology ; Prunus dulcis/*physiology ; Seasons ; Tunisia ; }, abstract = {Temperate deciduous trees can only be productive where winters are cold enough to meet their chilling needs. In the Mediterranean region, chill has traditionally been sufficient for many species, but this may change as temperatures increase. We explored the region's present and future suitability for temperate trees by quantifying chill for the Sfax region in central Tunisia, one of the warmest regions where temperate nuts are commercially grown. We assessed climatic risk by calculating historic chill (since 1973) and using a weather generator calibrated with local weather data (1973-2015) to produce 101 years of chill estimates (computed with the Dynamic Model) and 3 past and 72 future scenarios (for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, using two representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For almonds and pistachios, we compared available chill during the chilling period with the species' estimated chilling requirements, and we computed the date by which sufficient chill was expected to have accumulated. Our findings indicated severe chill losses for all future scenarios. For all species, the current chill period is no longer expected to be sufficient for meeting chilling requirements in the future. Chill needs may still be fulfilled later in the year, especially for low-chill almonds, but this would result in delayed phenology, with possible adverse effects on productivity. Temperate nut production is thus unlikely to remain viable at this site, highlighting an urgent need to identify locally appropriate adaptation options. This challenge is likely shared by other warm production regions of temperate fruits and nuts around the world.}, }
@article {pmid30368152, year = {2019}, author = {Rakib, MA and Sasaki, J and Pal, S and Newaz, MA and Bodrud-Doza, M and Bhuiyan, MAH}, title = {An investigation of coastal vulnerability and internal consistency of local perceptions under climate change risk in the southwest part of Bangladesh.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {231}, number = {}, pages = {419-428}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.054}, pmid = {30368152}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climatic threats force disruption on community lifestyles by impairing social factors, the fundamental components of ensuring social sustainability. This study investigates the situational factors affecting the consequences on coastal livelihoods, and social activities; it also considers the effectiveness of traditional knowledge in reducing possible risks. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were employed, including questionnaire survey for identifying the local perception of climatic impacts alongside the impacts on daily activities. Interviews, field observations, and multivariate analyses were performed to explain the vulnerability status in coastal communities. Results show that most livelihood sectors were severely affected by the long-term and repeated actions of climatic hazards, such as cyclones, associated with a number of unavoidable risks making people susceptible to damages in social wellbeing. In addition, saltwater intrusion damages drinking water supply and crop farming, which can cause diseases among coastal communities, but very few attempts have been made to provide alternative sources of drinking water at a household level. Moreover, principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) revealed significant interfaces between local perceptions and the socio-and agro-environmental factors changing the overall status of regional hazards. Thus, the situation exhibits coastal hazards, social vulnerability, and social crisis. Local people use their traditional knowledge to cope with various levels of crisis under vulnerable conditions, but sometimes doing so exceeds their capacity owing to the unwanted changes in climatic variables and knowledge gaps or uncertainties. Challenges on the basis of the problematic points should be noted, however, it would be more significant to achieve social sustainability under adverse climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30366320, year = {2019}, author = {Boonwichai, S and Shrestha, S and Babel, MS and Weesakul, S and Datta, A}, title = {Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies on rainfed rice production in Songkhram River Basin, Thailand.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {652}, number = {}, pages = {189-201}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.201}, pmid = {30366320}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Oryza ; Rivers ; Temperature ; Thailand ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {This study investigates rice yield and evaluates potential adaptation measures on field management practices for rainfed rice production under climate change scenarios in the Songkhram River Basin, Thailand. The top-down and bottom-up approaches are combined to evaluate the future climate conditions in the Songkhram River Basin and identify adaptation strategies respectively. An ensemble of four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) bias-corrected using the Quantile Mapping technique was used to project the future climate under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The DSSAT crop simulation model was used to simulate rice yield and evaluate the impacts of climate change on rice yield, as well as the feasibility of four adaptation options, which were solicited from four hundred farmers through questionnaire surveys in the basin. The strategies include (i) change in planting date, (ii) change in fertiliser application date, (iii) change in fertiliser application dose, and (iv) supplying irrigation water. Based on the model results, future maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to increase by 2.8 and 3.2 °C respectively under RCP8.5 scenario for 2080s. Although annual rainfall may be unchanged, rainfall patterns will shift earlier in future. Evaluation of adaptation strategies suggest that supplying irrigation water under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively are the best strategies to increase rice yield under climate change scenarios. Change in fertiliser application date and change in planting date can increase the future rice yield by 12 and 8%, respectively under RCP4.5 scenario for 2080s. Adjusting the fertiliser application dose may however reduce future rice yield. Although supplying irrigation water can aid the production of rainfed rice, other concerns such as the source of water are involved. The feasibility of adaptation actions would depend largely on available resources and mindset of farmers. Further work is warranted in exploring a combination of adaptation strategies and management plans to combat the adverse impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30364587, year = {2018}, author = {Rahut, DB and Ali, A}, title = {Impact of climate-change risk-coping strategies on livestock productivity and household welfare: empirical evidence from Pakistan.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {4}, number = {10}, pages = {e00797}, pmid = {30364587}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Using the primary datasets collected from 700 livestock farmers from all four major provinces of Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit Baltistan, this paper analyzes the impact of climate-change risk coping strategies on household welfare. A Poisson regression model was used to estimate the determinants of the livestock ownership and multivariate probit model to assess the determinants of the measures taken to manage the climatic-risk challenge for livestock. A propensity score matching approach (PSM) was used to assess the impact of the adopted climate-risk management strategies on livestock farmers. Findings indicated that in Pakistan livestock farmers generally adopt four main types of strategies to cope with climate risk: livestock insurance, selling of livestock, allocation of more land area for fodder and migration. The results show that age, education, wealth, access to extension services, and membership in NGOs, influence the livestock farmers' choice of climate-risk-coping mechanisms. The livestock farmers who adopted risk-coping mechanisms generally fared better. Increasing the land area allocated to fodder seems to increase production of milk and butter, resulting in higher income and lower poverty levels. Those who bought insurance had more milk production and a lower poverty level, while those who sold livestock to cope with climate risk decreased production but increased household income and lowered poverty levels. Migration seems to have a negative impact on production and income. Impact assessments confirm that purchasing livestock insurance and increasing fodder areas are more effective compared to the selling of livestock and migration. Agricultural climate policy should focus on creating awareness as well as increasing access to extension services among livestock farmers on climate risk and risk-coping strategies to mitigate the impact on rural livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid30361350, year = {2018}, author = {Pennisi, E}, title = {Restoring lost grazers could help blunt climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6413}, pages = {388}, doi = {10.1126/science.362.6413.388}, pmid = {30361350}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Forests ; Grassland ; *Herbivory ; Perissodactyla ; Reindeer ; Tundra ; Wildfires/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid30360282, year = {2019}, author = {Potapowicz, J and Szumińska, D and Szopińska, M and Polkowska, Ż}, title = {The influence of global climate change on the environmental fate of anthropogenic pollution released from the permafrost: Part I. Case study of Antarctica.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {1534-1548}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.168}, pmid = {30360282}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*analysis ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Permafrost ; }, abstract = {This article presents a review of information related to the influence of potential permafrost degradation on the environmental fate of chemical species which are released and stored, classified as potential influence in future Antarctic environment. Considering all data regarding climate change prediction, this topic may prove important issue for the future state of the Antarctic environment. A detailed survey on soil and permafrost data permitted the assumption that this medium may constitute a sink for organic and inorganic pollution (especially for persistent organic pollution, POPs, and heavy metals). The analysis of the environmental fate and potential consequences of the presence of pollutants for the existence of the Antarctic fauna leads to a conclusion that they may cause numerous negative effects (e.g. Endocrine disruptions, DNA damage, cancerogenicity). In the case of temperature increase and enhanced remobilisation processes, this effect may be even stronger, and may disturb natural balance in the environment. Therefore, regular research on the environmental fate of pollution is required, especially in terms of processes of remobilisation from the permafrost reserves.}, }
@article {pmid30359427, year = {2018}, author = {Di Giusto, B and Lavallee, JP and Yu, TY}, title = {Towards an East Asian model of climate change awareness: A questionnaire study among university students in Taiwan.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0206298}, pmid = {30359427}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {East Asia emits more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than any other region, yet little is known about attitudes towards climate change in this region. A cross-sectional survey investigating climate change knowledge, concern and behavior change was administered to 1118 university students at nine universities across Taiwan in June 2016. Knowledge was assessed with a 15-item quiz while concern and behavioral change were self-reported on 5-point Likert scales. The relationship of these three variables with various socio-demographic variables was investigated through Kruskal-Wallis tests and ordinal logistic regressions. Knowledge was homogeneous by region but differed sharply by socioeconomic position. Concern appears high by international standards, with 65% reporting being &quot;somewhat concerned&quot; and 28% being &quot;very concerned,&quot; while climate change denial was negligible. Students expressing greater concern were more likely to be from eastern and southern Taiwan, regions more vulnerable to extreme weather events. However, these high concern levels did not translate into action, as only 38% of respondents reported &quot;some&quot; and 11% reported &quot;very much&quot; behavioral change in response to climate change. Higher levels of behavioral change were reported by students expressing greater concern and students with lower levels of climate change knowledge. In contrast with studies of Western societies, our findings suggest an East Asian model in which the conflict between economic growth and the environment is playing out in different ways, such that the crucial need is for policy leadership and not more education.}, }
@article {pmid30358002, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, L and Huang, JG and Ma, Q and Hänninen, H and Tremblay, F and Bergeron, Y}, title = {Long-term changes in the impacts of global warming on leaf phenology of four temperate tree species.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {997-1004}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14496}, pmid = {30358002}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Contrary to the generally advanced spring leaf unfolding under global warming, the effects of the climate warming on autumn leaf senescence are highly variable with advanced, delayed, and unchanged patterns being all reported. Using one million records of leaf phenology from four dominant temperate species in Europe, we investigated the temperature sensitivities of spring leaf unfolding and autumn leaf senescence (ST , advanced or delayed days per degree Celsius). The ST of spring phenology in all of the four examined species showed an increase and decrease during 1951-1980 and 1981-2013, respectively. The decrease in the ST during 1981-2013 appears to be caused by reduced accumulation of chilling units. As with spring phenology, the ST of leaf senescence of early successional and exotic species started to decline since 1980. In contrast, for late successional species, the ST of autumn senescence showed an increase for the entire study period from 1951 to 2013. Moreover, the impacts of rising temperature associated with global warming on spring leaf unfolding were stronger than those on autumn leaf senescence. The timing of leaf senescence was positively correlated with the timing of leaf unfolding during 1951-1980. However, as climate warming continued, the differences in the responses between spring and autumn phenology gradually increased, so that the correlation was no more significant during 1981-2013. Our results further suggest that since 2000, due to the decreased temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding the length of the growing season has not increased any more. These finding needs to be addressed in vegetation models used for assessing the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30357847, year = {2019}, author = {Carvalho, LC and Amâncio, S}, title = {Cutting the Gordian Knot of abiotic stress in grapevine: From the test tube to climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {165}, number = {2}, pages = {330-342}, doi = {10.1111/ppl.12857}, pmid = {30357847}, issn = {1399-3054}, support = {SFRH/BPD/109428/2015//Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia/ ; UID/AGR/04129/2013//Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia/ ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Genotype ; Stress, Physiological/genetics/*physiology ; Transcriptome/genetics ; Vitis/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In Mediterranean climate areas, the available scenarios for climate change suggest an increase in the frequency of heat waves and severe drought in summer. Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) is a traditional Mediterranean species and is the most valuable fruit crop in the world. Currently, viticulture must adjust to impending climate changes that are already pushing vine-growers toward the use of irrigation, with the concomitant losses in wine quality, and researchers to study tolerance to stress in existing genotypes. The viticulture and winemaking worlds are in demand to understand the physiological potential of the available genotypes to respond to climate changes. In this review, we will focus on the cross-talk between common abiotic stresses that currently affect grapevine productivity and that are prone to affect it deeper in the future. We will discuss results obtained under three experimental stress conditions and that call for specific responses: (1) acclimatization of in vitro plantlets, (2) stress combinations in controlled conditions for research purposes, (3) extreme events in the field that, driven by climate changes, are pushing Mediterranean species to the limit. The different levels of tolerance to stress put in evidence by the plasticity of phenotypic and genotypic response mechanisms, will be addressed. This information is relevant to understand varietal adaptation to impending climate changes and to assist vine growers in choosing genotypes and viticulture practices.}, }
@article {pmid30356932, year = {2018}, author = {Ashraf, U and Chaudhry, MN and Ahmad, SR and Ashraf, I and Arslan, M and Noor, H and Jabbar, M}, title = {Impacts of climate change on Capparis spinosa L. based on ecological niche modeling.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e5792}, pmid = {30356932}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Recent changes in climate are transforming the situation of life on Earth, including impacting the conservation status of many plant and animal species. This study aims to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on a medicinal plant that is known to be heat-tolerant, Capparis spinosa L. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate current and future potential distributions for the species, considering two emissions scenarios and five climate models for two time periods (2050 and 2070). The results in terms of areal coverage at different suitability levels in the future were closely similar to its present-day distribution; indeed, only minor differences existed in highly suitable area, with increases of only 0.2-0.3% in suitable area for 2050 and 2070 under representative concentration pathway 4.5. Given that climate-mediated range shifts in the species are expected to be minor, conservation attention to this species can focus on minimizing local effects of anthropog