@article {pmid31310666, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, C and Harvey, JA and Biere, A and Gols, R}, title = {Rain downpours affect survival and development of insect herbivores: the specter of climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e02819}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2819}, pmid = {31310666}, issn = {1939-9170}, abstract = {Changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of rainfall events are among the abiotic effects predicted under anthropogenic global warming. Heavy downpours may profoundly affect the development and survival of small organisms such as insects. Here, we examined direct (physically on the insects) and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of simulated downpours on the performance of caterpillars of two lepidopteran herbivores (Plutella xylostella and Pieris brassicae) feeding on black mustard (Brassica nigra) plants. Host plants were exposed to different rainfall regimes both before and while caterpillars were feeding on the plants in an attempt to separate direct and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of rainfall on insect survival and development. In two independent experiments, downpours were simulated as a single long (20 min) or as three short (5 min) daily events. Downpours had a strong negative direct effect on the survival of P. xylostella, but not on that of P. brassicae. Direct effects of downpours consistently increased development time of both herbivore species, whereas effects on body mass depended on herbivore species and downpour frequency. Caterpillar disturbance by rain and recorded microclimatic cooling by 5 °C may explain extended immature development. Indirect, plant-mediated effects of downpours on the herbivores were generally small, despite the fact that sugar concentrations were reduced and herbivore induction of secondary metabolites (glucosinolates) was enhanced in plants exposed to rain. Changes in the frequency of precipitation events due to climate change may impact the survival and development of insect herbivores differentially. Broader effects of downpours on insects and other arthropods up the food chain could seriously impair and disrupt trophic interactions, ultimately destabilizing communities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31310652, year = {2019}, author = {Correa-Lima, APA and Varassin, IG and Barve, N and Zwiener, VP}, title = {Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcz079}, pmid = {31310652}, issn = {1095-8290}, abstract = {BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS: Tropical plant species are already suffering the effects of climate change and projections warn of even greater changes in the following decades. Of particular concern are alterations in flowering phenology, given that it is considered a fitness trait, part of plant species ecological niche, with potential cascade effects in plant-pollinator interactions. The aim of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.<br><br>METHODS: We implemented ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of 62 hummingbird-pollinated plant species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Distribution models indicate future changes in the climatic suitability of their current habitats, suggesting a tendency towards discontinuity, reduction and spatial displacement. Flowering models indicate that climate can influence species phenology in different ways: some species may experience increased flowering suitability whereas others may suffer decreased suitability.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that hummingbird-pollinated species are prone to changes in their geographical distribution and flowering under different climate scenarios. Such variation may impact the community structure of ecological networks and reproductive success of tropical plants in the near future.}, }
@article {pmid31310430, year = {2019}, author = {Jakoby, O and Lischke, H and Wermelinger, B}, title = {Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus).}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14766}, pmid = {31310430}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most important insect pest in Central European forests. Under climate change, its phenology is presumed to be changing and mass infestations becoming more likely. While several studies have investigated climate effects across a latitudinal gradient, it remains an open question how phenology will change depending on elevation and topology. Knowing how an altered climate is likely to affect bark beetle populations, particularly across diverse topographies and elevations, is essential for adaptive management. We developed a time-varying distributed delay model to predict the phenology of I. typographus. This approach has the particular advantage of capturing the variability within populations and thus representing its stage structure at any time. The model is applied for three regional climate change scenarios, A1B, A2 and RCP3PD, to the diverse topography of Switzerland, covering a large range of elevations, aspects and slopes. We found a strong negative relationship between voltinism and elevation. Under climate change, the model predicts an increasing number of generations over the whole elevational gradient, which will be more pronounced at low elevations. In contrast, the pre-shift in spring swarming is expected to be greater at higher elevations. In comparison, the general trend of faster beetle development on steep southern slopes is only of minor importance. Overall, the maximum elevation allowing a complete yearly generation will move upwards. Generally, the predicted increase in number of generations, earlier spring swarming, more aggregated swarming, together with a projected increase in drought and storm events, will result in a higher risk of mass infestations. This will increase the pressure on spruce stands particularly in the lowlands and require intensified management efforts. It calls for adapted long-term silvicultural strategies to mitigate the loss of ecosystem services such as timber production, protection against rockfall and avalanches, and carbon storage. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31308901, year = {2019}, author = {Chakwizira, J}, title = {Rural transport and climate change in South Africa: Converting constraints into rural transport adaptation opportunities.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {718}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i3.718}, pmid = {31308901}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This study explored the implications of climate change for rural transport in South Africa. The article was seeking to convert existing rural transport adaptation constraints into rural transport adaptation opportunities. Challenges and constraints to rural transport adaptation transitions were also explored. The research methodology adopted was a review of the literature and references to case study examples. Then a four-stage multi-analytical approach was used to unravel and decode the major rural transport and climate change issues in South Africa. Consequent to the analysis, a framework of analysis for strongly integrating climate change to rural transport interventions was advanced. The findings indicated the existing rural transport adaptation measures and options in South Africa. The article concludes by highlighting the complexity and intricate dynamic nature of interactions, networks and systems that impact rural South Africa. Recommendations revolve around properly situating rural transport and climate change within the wider rural development challenges and matters facing contemporary South Africa.}, }
@article {pmid31308900, year = {2019}, author = {Nhamo, G and Agyepong, AO}, title = {Climate change adaptation and local government: Institutional complexities surrounding Cape Town's Day Zero.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {717}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i3.717}, pmid = {31308900}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {The challenges associated with climate change in local governments are growing daily. One such challenge is water security, an aspect that draws us to the subject matter of climate change adaptation. This article discusses findings about institutional complexities surrounding Day Zero, a concept associated with water taps running dry because of drought conditions as aggravated by climate change in the city of Cape Town, South Africa. The thrust on institutional complexities is deliberate, as this affects how crisis situations like Day Zero were handled. The data were generated mainly from the actor-actant-network theory, events study as well as document and discourse analysis methods. The actor-actant-network theory is used widely to trace how actors (humans) and actants (non-human phenomena) interact in space and time through their networks, following narratives like Day Zero, and act on climate-related matters. The analysis applied elements of grounded theory, resulting in categories and themes emerging for discussion. The article found that narratives surrounding Day Zero were embedded in both political and administrative dilemmas and red tape. Despite these challenges, the article concludes that Day Zero remains one of the landmark learning points for climate change adaptation and water security in Cape Town, South Africa, and in other cities across the world. The article recommends that Day Zero experiences continue to be embraced positively and documented further to enhance local government climate adaptation for water security currently and into the future as well.}, }
@article {pmid31308898, year = {2019}, author = {Shokane, AL}, title = {Social work assessment of climate change: Case of disasters in greater Tzaneen municipality.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {710}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i3.710}, pmid = {31308898}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate-change-induced disasters such as floods, heavy storms, tornadoes and extreme lightning are becoming more frequent in Africa generally and in South Africa specifically. Several factors contribute to Africa's high vulnerability to disasters, including the high rate of population growth, food insecurity, high levels of poverty, inappropriate use of natural resources and failures of policy and institutional frameworks. The study adopted an ecological systems theory as a theoretical framework to explain how social work in rural communities deals with climate-change-induced disasters. The aim was to explore and describe the role of social work in the assessment of climate change disaster predicaments. A qualitative approach, utilising an exploratory-descriptive design, was adopted for this study. A purposive sampling technique was used to select five social workers and two social auxiliary workers to participate in the study. Semi-structured interviews were applied in the research as a tool for data collection. Data were analysed qualitatively using thematic content analysis. The research concluded that social workers should intervene in climate-change-induced disasters by conducting assessments and providing disaster intervention strategies.}, }
@article {pmid31308890, year = {2019}, author = {Mhlanga-Ndlovu, BFN and Nhamo, G}, title = {Small-Scale Farmers Associations' adaptive capacity to climate change in Swaziland sugarcane industry.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {697}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i2.697}, pmid = {31308890}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This study investigated the existing adaptive capacity for climate change impacts by Small-Scale Famers Associations (SSFAs) in Swaziland's sugar industry. The analysis of adaptive capacity considered how the livelihood assets (natural, physical, financial, human and social) as discussed in the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) help promote SSFAs' adaptive capacity to climate change. The study took place in the Lowveld. Data were generated through a questionnaire from 45 SSFAs supervisors representing more than 2700 farmers. In addition, face-to-face interviews were undertaken with key informants, namely, Swaziland Water and Agricultural Development Enterprise, Swaziland Sugar Association, Ministry of Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Economic Planning and Development, and the United Nations Development Programme. The results indicate that the farmers have less adaptive capacity, and this affects the implementation of adaptation measures. The priority action towards increased adaptation includes interventions on credit, utility costs and taxes, land resources ownership and management, as well as information dissemination, especially early warning.}, }
@article {pmid31308881, year = {2019}, author = {Ncube, A and Tawodzera, M}, title = {Communities' perceptions of health hazards induced by climate change in Mount Darwin district, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {748}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.748}, pmid = {31308881}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change contributes toward many global challenges, such as increases in diseases in some communities, thereby accelerating health hazards to disasters. Establishing the extent to which local communities understand and perceive climate change and related health hazards is important for effective disaster risk management strategies. The objective of this study was to investigate communities' perceptions of health hazards induced by climate change in Mount Darwin district of Zimbabwe. This was in the light that besides the visible indications that climate is changing, the local people still perceive the climate change phenomenon as mystical or even a non-event. The study was situated within the social capital theory contextualised within the climate change, disaster management and the knowledge and perception realm constructed through social relationships, networks and interactions. A mixed-method research approach was used to assess the extent of knowledge and perceptions related to climate change and climate change-related health hazards. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to survey 204 participants from 10 wards in Mount Darwin, Zimbabwe. Respondents were purposively selected as they were mostly characterised by high vulnerability levels. While 38% of the respondents were not aware of climate change, 7% correctly identified climate change as caused by both natural and man-made forces. Most (89%) of the respondents stated that hazards occur mainly because of meteorological and hydrological causes. The study therefore recommended further education and awareness programmes to deepen community understanding of climate change. Despite the communities having some knowledge gaps and lacking an in-depth understanding of how climate change alters disease, there was some vital information within the Mount Darwin community that could have been used in local disaster risk management initiatives.}, }
@article {pmid31308877, year = {2019}, author = {Volenzo, TE and Odiyo, JO and Obiri, J}, title = {Greenhouse gas emissions as sustainability indicators in agricultural sectors' adaptation to climate change: Policy implications.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {576}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.576}, pmid = {31308877}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Effective adaptation action to climate change requires a balance between reducing vulnerabilities and managing risks. However, in most adaptation actions, risks such as greenhouse gas emissions, and those that impose negative externalities on global communities and ecosystems, are often overlooked. This article contextualises adaptation of maize stover (MS) as a dairy cattle feed among resource-poor farmers in western Kenya. In so doing, it attempts to establish the nexus between resource constraint and maladaptation to climate change. Simulation of methane emissions was carried out from secondary data and a survey of dairy cattle feeding strategies by resource-poor farmers. The level of greenhouse gas emissions in dairy feeding strategies is used as a measure and indicator of sustainability. Using disaster risk reduction principles, policymakers and community of practice in climate change action are encouraged to design and implement policies and strategies that take cognisance of poverty-maladaptation-environmental degradation nexus.}, }
@article {pmid31306868, year = {2019}, author = {Matias, RS and Gregory, S and Ceia, FR and Baeta, A and Seco, J and Rocha, MS and Fernandes, EM and Reis, RL and Silva, TH and Pereira, E and Piatkowski, U and Ramos, JA and Xavier, JC}, title = {Show your beaks and we tell you what you eat: Different ecology in sympatric Antarctic benthic octopods under a climate change context.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {150}, number = {}, pages = {104757}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.104757}, pmid = {31306868}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Sympatry can lead to higher competition under climate change and other environmental pressures, including in South Georgia, Antarctica, where the two most common octopod species, Adelieledone polymorpha and Pareledone turqueti, occur side by side. Since cephalopods are typically elusive animals, the ecology of both species is poorly known. As beaks of cephalopods are recurrently found in top predator's stomachs, we studied the feeding ecology of both octopods through the evaluation of niche overlapping and specific beak adaptations that both species present. A multidisciplinary approach combining carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) stable isotope signatures, mercury (Hg) analysis and biomaterials' engineering techniques was applied to investigate the beaks. An isotopic niche overlap of 95.6% was recorded for the juvenile stages of both octopod species, dropping to 19.2% for the adult stages. Both A. polymorpha and P. turqueti inhabit benthic ecosystems around South Georgia throughout their lifecycles (δ13C: -19.21 ± 1.87‰, mean ± SD for both species) but explore trophic niches partially different during adult life stages (δ15N: 7.01 ± 0.40‰, in A. polymorpha, and 7.84 ± 0.65‰, in P. turqueti). The beaks of A. polymorpha are less dense and significantly less stiff than in P. turqueti. Beaks showed lower mercury concentration relative to muscle (A. polymorpha - beaks: 0.052 ± 0.009 μg g-1, muscle: 0.322 ± 0.088 μg g-1; P. turqueti - beaks: 0.038 ± 0.009 μg g-1; muscle: 0.434 ± 0.128 μg g-1). Overall, both octopods exhibit similar habitats but different trophic niches, related to morphology/function of beaks. The high Hg concentrations in both octopods can have negative consequences on their top predators and may increase under the present climate change context.}, }
@article {pmid31306533, year = {2019}, author = {Destro, GFG and de Fernandes, V and de Andrade, AFA and De Marco, P and Terribile, LC}, title = {Back home? Uncertainties for returning seized animals to the source-areas under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14760}, pmid = {31306533}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Regardless of the economic, social and environmental impacts caused by wild animal trafficking worldwide, the suitable destination of seized specimens is one of the main challenges faced by environmental managers and authorities. In Brazil, returning seized animals to the wild has been the most frequent path in population restoration programs, and has been carried out, as a priority, in areas where the animals were captured. However, in addition to the difficulty in identifying the locations of illegal captures, little scientific knowledge is available on the future viability of the source-areas to global climate change. Thus, the current work aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the main source-municipalities for animal trafficking in Brazil, referred to herein as source-areas. For this, using ecological niche modeling, the environmental suitability of the source-areas for illegal animal captures was evaluated in two scenarios at two differ time horizons: optimistic (RCP 26) and a pessimistic (RCP 85) emission scenarios in both 2050 and 2070 projections. Moreover, the source-areas were compared with the Brazilian Federal protected areas, used here as the control group. According to the results, Brazilian source-municipalities are not always the best option for maintaining the most seized species in the future simulations, and, therefore, seem not be the best option for projects that aim for the return of these animals to the wild. In this sense, despite the genetic and ecological issues inherent in translocation projects, our results suggest that population restoration programs for seized species need to be rethought, and furthermore other suitable areas could be considered for truly ensuring the survival and maintenance of overexploited populations in the long-term. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31301499, year = {2019}, author = {Guo, L and Shan, N and Zhang, Y and Sun, F and Liu, W and Shi, Z and Zhang, Q}, title = {Separating the effects of climate change and human activity on water use efficiency over the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region of China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {690}, number = {}, pages = {584-595}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.067}, pmid = {31301499}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water use efficiency (WUE) is a central parameter for linking carbon and water exchange processes in terrestrial ecosystems. The Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (BTSSR) in China has undergone tremendous vegetation restoration and climate change. Understanding the WUE responses to climate change and human activity and their relative contributions to the trends and inter-annual variations (IAVs) in WUE is necessary to improve water use efficiency and strengthen water resource management. The evapotranspiration (ET) dataset based on the model tree ensemble (MTE) algorithm which was a machine learning approach using flux-tower ET measurements and the GLASS GPP dataset, as well as the variance decomposition method, were used to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in water use efficiency and inherent water use efficiency (IWUE) and the impacts of climate change and human activities. The results showed that the annual WUE and IWUE exhibited significantly increase in most regions of the BTSSR. The trend of human activity played the most important role in the increases of WUE and IWUE, with relative contributions of 88.2% and 85.9%, respectively, followed by the IAV of human activity for WUE (6.1%) and the trend of climate change (8.7%) for IWUE. The contribution of IAV to climate change was relatively small. Moreover, WUE and IWUE were all positively correlated with precipitation and temperature in most regions. Our results indicated that ecological restoration projects had significantly improved water use efficiency in BTSSR and may decrease the water burden in the BTSSR.}, }
@article {pmid31301449, year = {2019}, author = {Verheyen, J and Tüzün, N and Stoks, R}, title = {Using natural laboratories to study evolution to global warming: contrasting altitudinal, latitudinal, and urbanization gradients.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {10-19}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2019.06.001}, pmid = {31301449}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Demonstrating the likelihood of evolution in response to global warming is important, yet challenging. We discuss how three spatial thermal gradients (latitudinal, altitudinal, and urbanization) can be used as natural laboratories to inform about the gradual thermal evolution of populations by applying a space-for-time substitution (SFTS) approach. We compare thermal variables and confounding non-thermal abiotic variables, methodological approaches and evolutionary aspects associated with each type of gradient. On the basis of an overview of recent insect studies, we show that a key assumption of SFTS, local thermal adaptation along these gradients, is often but not always met, requiring explicit validation. To increase realism when applying SFTS, we highlight the importance of integrating daily temperature fluctuations, multiple stressors and multiple interacting species. Finally, comparative studies, especially across gradient types, are important to provide more robust inferences of evolution under gradual global warming. Integrating these research directions will further strengthen the still underused, yet powerful SFTS approach to infer gradual evolution under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid31297944, year = {2019}, author = {Fill, JM and Davis, CN and Crandall, RM}, title = {Climate change lengthens southeastern USA lightning-ignited fire seasons.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14727}, pmid = {31297944}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//University of Florida Foundation, Inc./ ; }, abstract = {Trends in average annual or seasonal precipitation are insufficient for detecting changes in the climatic fire season, especially in regions where the fire season is defined by wet-dry seasonal cycles and lightning activity. Using an extensive dataset (1897-2017) in the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, we examined changes in annual dry season length, total precipitation, and (since 1945) the seasonal distribution of thunder-days as a correlate of lightning activity. We found that across the entire region, the dry season has lengthened by as much as 156 days (130% over 120 years), both starting earlier and ending later with less total precipitation. Less rainfall over a longer dry season, with no change in seasonal thunderstorm patterns, likely increases both the potential for lightning-ignited wildfires and fire severity. Global climate change could be having a hitherto undetected influence on fire regimes by altering the synchrony of climatic seasonal parameters.}, }
@article {pmid31296193, year = {2019}, author = {Lee, JS and Farlow, A}, title = {The threat of climate change to non-dengue-endemic countries: increasing risk of dengue transmission potential using climate and non-climate datasets.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {934}, doi = {10.1186/s12889-019-7282-3}, pmid = {31296193}, issn = {1471-2458}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue is a major public health problem in the tropics and sub-tropics, but the disease is less known to non-dengue-endemic countries including in Northeast Asia. However, an unexpected dengue outbreak occurred in 2014 in Japan. Given that autochthonous (domestic) dengue cases had not been reported for the past 70 years in Japan, this outbreak was highly unusual and suggests that several environmental factors might have changed in a way that favors vector mosquitoes in the Northeast Asian region.<br><br>METHODS: A Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index, as validated in previous work, was constructed using climate and non-climate factors. This CRF index was compared to the number of reported dengue cases in Tokyo, Japan where the outbreak was observed in 2014. In order to identify high-risk areas, the CRF index was further estimated at the 5 km by 5 km resolution and mapped for Japan and South Korea.<br><br>RESULTS: The high-risk areas determined by the CRF index corresponded well to the provinces where a high number of autochthonous cases were reported during the outbreak in Japan. At the provincial-level, high-risk areas for dengue fever were the Eastern part of Tokyo and Kanakawa, the South-Eastern part of Saitama, and the North-Western part of Chiba. While a relatively small number of high-risk areas were identified in South Korea compared with Japan, the high-risk areas in South Korea include popular tourist destinations where international visitors have been increasing.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The recent dengue outbreak in Japan may signal that the two adjacent non-dengue-endemic countries are also exposed to the risk of temporal and sporadic behavior of dengue fever. It is critical to understand potential high-risk areas for future outbreaks and to set up appropriate prevention activities at the governmental-level.}, }
@article {pmid31293629, year = {2019}, author = {Jaffé, R and Veiga, JC and Pope, NS and Lanes, ÉCM and Carvalho, CS and Alves, R and Andrade, SCS and Arias, MC and Bonatti, V and Carvalho, AT and de Castro, MS and Contrera, FAL and Francoy, TM and Freitas, BM and Giannini, TC and Hrncir, M and Martins, CF and Oliveira, G and Saraiva, AM and Souza, BA and Imperatriz-Fonseca, VL}, title = {Landscape genomics to the rescue of a tropical bee threatened by habitat loss and climate change.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {1164-1177}, doi = {10.1111/eva.12794}, pmid = {31293629}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Habitat degradation and climate change are currently threatening wild pollinators, compromising their ability to provide pollination services to wild and cultivated plants. Landscape genomics offers powerful tools to assess the influence of landscape modifications on genetic diversity and functional connectivity, and to identify adaptations to local environmental conditions that could facilitate future bee survival. Here, we assessed range-wide patterns of genetic structure, genetic diversity, gene flow, and local adaptation in the stingless bee Melipona subnitida, a tropical pollinator of key biological and economic importance inhabiting one of the driest and hottest regions of South America. Our results reveal four genetic clusters across the species' full distribution range. All populations were found to be under a mutation-drift equilibrium, and genetic diversity was not influenced by the amount of reminiscent natural habitats. However, genetic relatedness was spatially autocorrelated and isolation by landscape resistance explained range-wide relatedness patterns better than isolation by geographic distance, contradicting earlier findings for stingless bees. Specifically, gene flow was enhanced by increased thermal stability, higher forest cover, lower elevations, and less corrugated terrains. Finally, we detected genomic signatures of adaptation to temperature, precipitation, and forest cover, spatially distributed in latitudinal and altitudinal patterns. Taken together, our findings shed important light on the life history of M. subnitida and highlight the role of regions with large thermal fluctuations, deforested areas, and mountain ranges as dispersal barriers. Conservation actions such as restricting long-distance colony transportation, preserving local adaptations, and improving the connectivity between highlands and lowlands are likely to assure future pollination services.}, }
@article {pmid31293131, year = {2019}, author = {Lauriola, P and Serafini, A and Santamaria, MG and Pegoraro, S and Romizi, F and Di Ciaula, A and Terzano, B and De Tommasi, F and Cordiano, V and Guicciardi, S and Bernardi, M and Leonardi, G and Romizi, R and Vinci, E and Bianchi, F}, title = {[Sentinel physicians for the environment and their role in connecting up global concerns due to climate change with local actions: thoughts and proposals].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {43}, number = {2-3}, pages = {129-130}, doi = {10.19191/EP19.2-3.P129.051}, pmid = {31293131}, issn = {1120-9763}, }
@article {pmid31292461, year = {2019}, author = {Valdivia-Garcia, M and Weir, P and Graham, DW and Werner, D}, title = {Predicted Impact of Climate Change on Trihalomethanes Formation in Drinking Water Treatment.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {9967}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-46238-0}, pmid = {31292461}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {EP/G037094/1//RCUK | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)/ ; EP/G037094/1//RCUK | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)/ ; EP/G037094/1//RCUK | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)/ ; }, abstract = {Quantitative predictions of impacts on public water supplies are essential for planning climate change adaptations. Monitoring data from five full-scale Scottish drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) showed that significant correlations exist between conditionally carcinogenic trihalomethanes (THMs) levels, water temperature (r = 0.812, p = 0.0013) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) (r = 0.892, p < 0.0001), respectively. The strong seasonality of these parameters demonstrated how climate can influence THMs formation. We quantified with laboratory experiments the sensitivity of THMs formation to changes in water temperature and DOC concentration. The laboratory data accurately reproduced real-world THM formation in the DWTPs. We then combined these validated relationships with information from the literature about future trends in mean summer temperatures and surface water DOC in the British Isles, to estimate future global warming impacts on THMs formation in DWTPs that use chlorine for disinfection. An increase in mean summer temperatures will likely increase THM formation, with a 1.8 °C temperature increase and 39% THMs increase by 2050 representing our mid-range scenario. Such an increase has major implications to potable water around the world, either an increased health risk or increased water treatment costs to maintain an equivalent quality potable supply.}, }
@article {pmid31291388, year = {2019}, author = {Rosario, NA and D'Amato, G and Ansotegui, I}, title = {Global warming and warning.}, journal = {Clinics (Sao Paulo, Brazil)}, volume = {74}, number = {}, pages = {e1219}, doi = {10.6061/clinics/2019/e1219}, pmid = {31291388}, issn = {1980-5322}, }
@article {pmid31291367, year = {2019}, author = {Ferreira, MT and Cardoso, P and Borges, PAV and Gabriel, R and de Azevedo, EB and Elias, RB}, title = {Correction: Implications of climate change to the design of protected areas: The case study of small islands (Azores).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0219583}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0219583}, pmid = {31291367}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0218168.].}, }
@article {pmid31291297, year = {2019}, author = {Stennett-Brown, RK and Stephenson, TS and Taylor, MA}, title = {Caribbean climate change vulnerability: Lessons from an aggregate index approach.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0219250}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0219250}, pmid = {31291297}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The study examines the potential influence of sub-regional variations in climate, and specifically heavy rain events, in determining relative vulnerabilities of locations in twelve Caribbean countries. An aggregate vulnerability index, referred to as the Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS), is created using historical demographic and socioeconomic data and climate data representing extreme rain events. Four scenarios are explored. Firstly, comparative vulnerabilities are determined when heavy rainfall is incorporated in CVS versus when it is excluded. The impact of climate change is also investigated using future climate data derived from statistical downscaling but holding demographic and socioeconomic sub-indices constant. The analysis is repeated with projections of future demographic structure from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway data (SSP3), future climate projections and constant socioeconomic. Finally, the sensitivity of the results is examined with respect to applying different weights i.e. versus using equal weights for the climate and non-climatic components of CVS as is done for the first three scenarios. Results suggest that the inclusion of historical susceptibility to rainfall extremes influences relative vulnerabilities within the Caribbean when compared to the rankings of vulnerability derived using only socioeconomic and demographic inputs. In some cases significant increases in relative rankings are noted. Projected changes in the intensity of rain events across the Caribbean region in the 2030s and 2050s, do not significantly alter the top and lowest ranked vulnerable locations when demographic and socioeconomic indices are held constant. Changes may however occur in the order of the top ranked locations dependent on scenario and time slice. In general, future shifts in relative vulnerabilities were found to be dependent on (i) changes in both future climate and demographic scenarios, (ii) the time horizons being considered, and (iii) the weighting assigned to climate in the future.}, }
@article {pmid31291254, year = {2019}, author = {Hamilton, LC and Hartter, J and Bell, E}, title = {Generation gaps in US public opinion on renewable energy and climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0217608}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0217608}, pmid = {31291254}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The topics of climate change and renewable energy are often linked in policy discussions and scientific analysis, but public opinion on these topics exhibits both overlap and divergence. Although renewable energy has potentially broader acceptance than anthropogenic climate change, it can also face differently-based opposition. Analyses of US and regional surveys, including time series of repeated surveys in New Hampshire (2010-2018) and northeast Oregon (2011-2018), explore the social bases and trends of public views on both issues. Political divisions are prominent, although somewhat greater regarding climate change due to substantive differences and more partisan opposition. Regarding climate change and to a lesser extent renewable energy, political divisions tends to widen with education. There also are robust age and temporal effects: younger adults more often prioritize renewable energy development, and agree with scientists on the reality of anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Across all age groups and both regional series, support for renewable energy and recognition of ACC have been gradually rising. Contrary to widespread speculation, these trends have not visibly responded to events such as the US hurricanes of 2012, 2017 or 2018. Together with age-cohort replacement and the potential for changes in age-group voting participation, however, the gradual trends suggest that public pressure for action on these issues could grow.}, }
@article {pmid31291249, year = {2019}, author = {Bastin, JF and Clark, E and Elliott, T and Hart, S and van den Hoogen, J and Hordijk, I and Ma, H and Majumder, S and Manoli, G and Maschler, J and Mo, L and Routh, D and Yu, K and Zohner, CM and Crowther, TW}, title = {Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0217592}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0217592}, pmid = {31291249}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Combating climate change requires unified action across all sectors of society. However, this collective action is precluded by the 'consensus gap' between scientific knowledge and public opinion. Here, we test the extent to which the iconic cities around the world are likely to shift in response to climate change. By analyzing city pairs for 520 major cities of the world, we test if their climate in 2050 will resemble more closely to their own current climate conditions or to the current conditions of other cities in different bioclimatic regions. Even under an optimistic climate scenario (RCP 4.5), we found that 77% of future cities are very likely to experience a climate that is closer to that of another existing city than to its own current climate. In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities. As a general trend, we found that all the cities tend to shift towards the sub-tropics, with cities from the Northern hemisphere shifting to warmer conditions, on average ~1000 km south (velocity ~20 km.year-1), and cities from the tropics shifting to drier conditions. We notably predict that Madrid's climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech's climate today, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha. Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information. The global assessment of city analogues can facilitate the understanding of climate change at a global level but also help land managers and city planners to visualize the climate futures of their respective cities, which can facilitate effective decision-making in response to on-going climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31290606, year = {2019}, author = {Rosenbach, M}, title = {Climate change, dermatology, and the time for real action.}, journal = {Pediatric dermatology}, volume = {36}, number = {4}, pages = {567-568}, doi = {10.1111/pde.13892}, pmid = {31290606}, issn = {1525-1470}, }
@article {pmid31290364, year = {2019}, author = {Aguirre-Liguori, JA and Ramírez-Barahona, S and Tiffin, P and Eguiarte, LE}, title = {Climate change is predicted to disrupt patterns of local adaptation in wild and cultivated maize.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1906}, pages = {20190486}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2019.0486}, pmid = {31290364}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most important threats to biodiversity and crop sustainability. The impact of climate change is often evaluated on the basis of expected changes in species' geographical distributions. Genomic diversity, local adaptation, and migration are seldom integrated into future species projections. Here, we examine how climate change will impact populations of two wild relatives of maize, the teosintes Zea mays ssp. mexicana and Z. mays ssp. parviglumis. Despite high levels of genetic diversity within populations and widespread future habitat suitability, we predict that climate change will alter patterns of local adaptation and decrease migration probabilities in more than two-thirds of present-day teosinte populations. These alterations are geographically heterogeneous and suggest that the possible impacts of climate change will vary considerably among populations. The population-specific effects of climate change are also evident in maize landraces, suggesting that climate change may result in maize landraces becoming maladapted to the climates in which they are currently cultivated. The predicted alterations to habitat distribution, migration potential, and patterns of local adaptation in wild and cultivated maize raise a red flag for the future of populations. The heterogeneous nature of predicted populations' responses underscores that the selective impact of climate change may vary among populations and that this is affected by different processes, including past adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31289942, year = {2019}, author = {Qian, D and Cao, G and Du, Y and Li, Q and Guo, X}, title = {Impacts of climate change and human factors on land cover change in inland mountain protected areas: a case study of the Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve in China.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {8}, pages = {486}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-019-7619-5}, pmid = {31289942}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {Key Program: 41730752//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; General Program: 3177053//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; Chinese Academy of Sciences//Light of West China Program/ ; 2017-ZJ-Y20//Qinghai innovation platform construction project/ ; }, abstract = {Over the past few decades, natural reserves have been affected by both climate change and human activities, and their land cover has changed dramatically, especially in mountain reserves, which are more sensitive to climate change and human activities. This paper used long-term Landsat and MODIS NDVI remote sensing data to monitor the changes of land cover and vegetation conditions in the Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve (QMNNR) in China from 1975 to 2015, and analysed the impacts of climate change and human activities in combination with meteorological and socioeconomic data. The results show that the land cover structure of the QMNNR has remained stable over the past 40 years, but the total area of natural vegetation has decreased by 49.55 km2, the artificial surface and cropland has expanded by 13.68 and 32.57 km2 in some areas, respectively, and the glacier has retreated by 33.34 km2 as a whole. The warming and humidification trend of the climate is the leading factor for glacial retreat and the improvement of the overall vegetation condition, while population growth and economic benefits lead to the expansion of cropland and artificial surfaces in some areas, thus causing the reduction of 18.80 and 28.30 km2 in shrubland and grassland. This study proves that the system of protected areas plays a key role in maintaining the stability of the ecosystem structure and that reducing the population density around the protected areas and changing the mode of economic development can effectively reduce the intensity of human interference. Under the background of climate warming, the change of the ecosystem function in mountain protected areas is full of uncertainty, so management and protection strategies need to be studied in depth.}, }
@article {pmid31289937, year = {2019}, author = {Soon, TK and Zheng, H}, title = {Climate Change and Bivalve Mass Mortality in Temperate Regions.}, journal = {Reviews of environmental contamination and toxicology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/398_2019_31}, pmid = {31289937}, issn = {0179-5953}, abstract = {One of the fastest-growing global food sectors is the bivalve aquaculture industry. Bivalves particularly oysters, mussels and clams are important sources of animal protein (Tan and Ransangan 2016a, b). Bivalve aquaculture represents 14-16% of the average per capita animal protein for 1.5 billion people and supports over 200,000 livelihoods, mostly in developing countries (FAO 2018). Most of the bivalves produced around the world (89%) are from aquaculture (FAO 2016). To date, mollusc aquaculture have accounted for 21.42% (17.14 million tonnes) of the total aquaculture production, with Asia being the largest contributor (92.27%) (FAO 2018).}, }
@article {pmid31289770, year = {2019}, author = {Kreslake, JM}, title = {Perceived Importance of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation According to Social and Medical Factors Among Residents of Impacted Communities in the United States.}, journal = {Health equity}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {124-133}, doi = {10.1089/heq.2019.0002}, pmid = {31289770}, issn = {2473-1242}, abstract = {Purpose: To determine whether perceived importance of local climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts differs according to social or medical factors among residents of impacted communities. Methods: An online survey was conducted among residents of California (Los Angeles/Orange), Florida (Miami-Dade/Broward), and Arizona (Maricopa) counties in July 2018 (n=605). Multivariable ordered logistic regression measured associations between the perceived importance of adaptation/mitigation approaches and income, race/ethnicity, and health conditions, controlling for age, political party, and county. Results: Lower income was associated with higher perceived importance of improved emergency alerts, government-subsidized costs of household air conditioners and energy-efficient appliances, strengthening buildings against extreme weather, regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, urban planning using &quot;cooling&quot; technologies, and expanding community gardens/local agriculture. Black respondents perceived evacuation services for those with financial barriers during extreme weather, government-subsidized costs of energy-efficient appliances, and communication from government agencies about local climate impacts and mitigation as significantly more important compared to non-Black, non-Hispanic respondents. Hispanic respondents perceived significantly greater importance of improved emergency alerts and health care access during extreme weather, evacuation services for residents without transportation, government-subsidized costs of energy-efficient appliances, regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, communication from government agencies about local climate impacts and mitigation efforts, and intergovernmental cooperation on mitigation compared to non-Hispanic respondents. Conclusions: Perceptions of the importance of specific local climate actions differ according to race/ethnicity and income. Community engagement is recommended to help local decisions reflect priorities of the most affected residents.}, }
@article {pmid31289387, year = {2019}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Climate change made Europe's mega-heatwave five times more likely.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {571}, number = {7764}, pages = {155}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02071-z}, pmid = {31289387}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31288795, year = {2019}, author = {Hotta, M and Tsuyama, I and Nakao, K and Ozeki, M and Higa, M and Kominami, Y and Hamada, T and Matsui, T and Yasuda, M and Tanaka, N}, title = {Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan's northern Alps.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {23}, doi = {10.1186/s12898-019-0238-8}, pmid = {31288795}, issn = {1472-6785}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica lives in the alpine zones of central Japan, which is the southern limit of the global distribution for this species. This species is highly dependent on alpine habitats, which are considered vulnerable to rapid climate change. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on potential L. muta japonica habitat based on predicted changes to alpine vegetation, to identify population vulnerability under future climatic conditions for conservation planning. We developed species distribution models, which considered the structure of the alpine ecosystem by incorporating spatial hierarchy on specific environmental factors to assess the potential habitats for L. muta japonica under current and future climates. We used 24 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2081-2100 as future climate conditions.<br><br>RESULTS: The predicted potential habitat for L. muta japonica was similar to the actual distribution of the territories in the study area of Japan's northern Alps (36.25-36.5°N, 137.5-137.7°E). Future potential habitat for L. muta japonica was projected to decrease to 0.4% of the current potential habitat in the median of occurrence probabilities under 24 GCMs, due to a decrease in alpine vegetation communities. Some potential habitats in the central and northwestern part of the study area were predicted to be sustained in the future, depending on the GCMs.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our model results predicted that the potential habitats for L. muta japonica in Japan's northern Alps, which provides core habitat for this subspecies, would be vulnerable by 2081-2100. Small sustainable habitats may serve as refugia, facilitating the survival of L. muta japonica populations under future climatic conditions. Impact assessment studies of the effect of climate change on L. muta japonica habitats at a nationwide scale are urgently required to establish effective conservation planning for this species, which includes identifying candidate areas for assisted migration as an adaptive strategy.}, }
@article {pmid31288110, year = {2019}, author = {Song, Y and Linderholm, HW and Wang, C and Tian, J and Huo, Z and Gao, P and Song, Y and Guo, A}, title = {The influence of excess precipitation on winter wheat under climate change in China from 1961 to 2017.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {690}, number = {}, pages = {189-196}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.367}, pmid = {31288110}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Winter wheat is one of China's most important staple food crops, and its growth and productivity are influenced by climate. Given its importance, we investigated the influence of excess precipitation under recent climate change on winter wheat in east-central China during 1961-2017. Although annual precipitation in the studied region decreased slightly, it increased during the winter wheat flowering and maturity period (May to June). Concurrently, the number of late growing season sunshine hours decreased. Our results showed that about 44% of the years with excess precipitation and less than normal radiation (16 years) were associated with decreasing winter wheat yields. Furthermore, during most years, precipitation of 50% above normal resulted in large decreases in winter wheat production in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, some of the wetter parts of the studied region. These results indicated that the grain yield variability of winter wheat was mainly influenced by excess precipitation in May, where precipitation could explain 70%-78% of yield variability in the wet parts. Moreover, excess precipitation can induce Fusarium head blight as well as wheat sprouting of pre-harvest, both affecting the grain quality of winter wheat. Projected increases in precipitation throughout the 21st century in the studied region, warrants further studies of how to maintain the winter wheat production in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid31287852, year = {2019}, author = {Asmamaw, M and Mereta, ST and Ambelu, A}, title = {Exploring households' resilience to climate change-induced shocks using Climate Resilience Index in Dinki watershed, central highlands of Ethiopia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0219393}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0219393}, pmid = {31287852}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {This study assessed households' resilience to climate change-induced shocks in Dinki watershed, northcentral highlands of Ethiopia. The data were collected through a cross-sectional survey conducted on 288 households, three focus group discussions, and 15 key informant interviews. The Climate Resilience Index (CRI) based on the three resilience capacities (absorptive, adaptive and transformative) frame was used to measure households' resilience to climate change-induced shocks on an agro-ecological unit of analysis. A principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple regression analysis were used to identify determinant factors and indicators to households' resilience, respectively. Findings indicate that the indexed scores of major components clearly differentiated the study communities in terms of their agro-ecological zones. Specifically, the absorptive capacity (0.495) was the leading contributing factor to resilience followed by adaptive (0.449) and transformative (0.387) capacities. Likewise, the Midland was relatively more resilient with a mean index value of 0.461. Both the PCA and multiple regression analysis indicated that access to and use of livelihood resources, such as farmlands and livestock holdings, diversity of income sources, infrastructure and social capital were determinants of households' resilience. In general, it might be due to their exposure to recurrent shocks coupled with limited adaptive capacities including underdeveloped public services, poor livelihood diversification practices, among others, the study communities showed minimal resilience capacity with a mean score of 0.44. Thus, in addition to short-term buffering strategies, intervention priority focusing on both adaptive and transformative capacities, particularly focusing on most vulnerable localities and constrained livelihood strategies, would contribute to ensuring long-term resilience in the study communities.}, }
@article {pmid31285999, year = {2019}, author = {Milner, J and Harpham, C and Taylor, J and Davies, M and Le Quéré, C and Haines, A and Wilkinson, P}, title = {The Challenge of Urban Heat Exposure under Climate Change: An Analysis of Cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) Database.}, journal = {Climate (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {93}, doi = {10.3390/cli5040093}, pmid = {31285999}, issn = {2225-1154}, abstract = {The so far largely unabated emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to increase global temperatures substantially over this century. We quantify the patterns of increases for 246 globally-representative cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) database. We used an ensemble of 18 global climate models (GCMs) run under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario to estimate the increase in monthly mean temperatures by 2050 and 2100 based on 30-year averages. Model simulations were from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Annual mean temperature increases were 0.93 degrees Celsius by 2050 and 1.10 degrees Celsius by 2100 under RCP2.6, and 1.27 and 4.15 degrees Celsius under RCP8.5, but with substantial city-to-city variation. By 2100, under RCP2.6 no city exceeds an increase in Tmean > 2 degrees Celsius (relative to a 2017 baseline), while all do under RCP8.5, some with increases in Tmean close to, or even greater than, 7 degrees Celsius. The increases were greatest in cities of mid to high latitude, in humid temperate and dry climate regions, and with large seasonal variation in temperature. Cities are likely to experience large increases in hottest month mean temperatures under high GHG emissions trajectories, which will often present substantial challenges to adaptation and health protection.}, }
@article {pmid31285705, year = {2019}, author = {Germain, G and Simon, A and Arsenault, J and Baron, G and Bouchard, C and Chaumont, D and El Allaki, F and Kimpton, A and Lévesque, B and Massé, A and Mercier, M and Ogden, NH and Picard, I and Ravel, A and Rocheleau, JP and Soto, J and , }, title = {Quebec's Multi-Party Observatory on Zoonoses and Adaptation to Climate Change.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {143-148}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i05a05}, pmid = {31285705}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Climate change has been linked with the establishment and geographical expansion of zoonotic diseases, an example of which is the well-documented increase in human cases of Lyme disease in Quebec, Canada. As temperatures continue to increase in Quebec, it is anticipated that several zoonotic diseases will be affected. In response to the growing zoonotic issues facing public health authorities, Quebec's Multi-Party Observatory on Zoonoses and Adaptation to Climate Change (Observatoire multipartite québécois sur les zoonoses et l'adaptation aux changements climatiques) (the Observatory) was founded in 2015 as part of the Quebec government's Climate Change Action Plan (Plan d'action 2013-2020 sur les changements climatiques). The Observatory was designed to bring together agencies involved in formulating public policy and experts from the disciplines of human health, animal health and environmental sciences, in a manner similar to the innovative &quot;One World, One Health&quot; approach. The Observatory provides a platform for knowledge sharing and consensus building among representatives of public policy decision makers and scientists. Its main objectives are to anticipate and prioritize potential issues associated with zoonotic diseases in Quebec, in order to support applicable risk management and climate change adaptation. This article describes what the Observatory is, what it does and outlines its plans for the future.}, }
@article {pmid31285704, year = {2019}, author = {Kotchi, SO and Bouchard, C and Ludwig, A and Rees, EE and Brazeau, S}, title = {Using Earth observation images to inform risk assessment and mapping of climate change-related infectious diseases.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {133-142}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i05a04}, pmid = {31285704}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {The number of human cases of several climate-related infectious diseases, including tick- and mosquito-borne diseases, has increased in Canada and other parts of the world since the end of the last century. Predicting and mapping the risks associated with these diseases using environmental and climatic determinants derived from satellite images is an emerging method that can support research, surveillance, prevention and control activities and help to better assess the impacts of climate change in Canada. Earth observation images can be used to systematically monitor changes in the Earth's surface and atmosphere at different scales of time and space. These images can inform estimation and monitoring of environmental and climatic determinants, and thus disease prediction and risk mapping. The current array of Earth observation satellites provides access to a large quantity and variety of data. These data have different characteristics in terms of spatial, temporal and thematic precision and resolution. The objectives of this overview are to describe how Earth observation images may inform risk assessment and mapping of tick-borne and mosquito-borne diseases in Canada, their potential benefits and limitations, the implications and next steps.}, }
@article {pmid31285702, year = {2019}, author = {Rees, EE and Ng, V and Gachon, P and Mawudeku, A and McKenney, D and Pedlar, J and Yemshanov, D and Parmely, J and Knox, J}, title = {Risk assessment strategies for early detection and prediction of infectious disease outbreaks associated with climate change.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {119-126}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i05a02}, pmid = {31285702}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {A new generation of surveillance strategies is being developed to help detect emerging infections and to identify the increased risks of infectious disease outbreaks that are expected to occur with climate change. These surveillance strategies include event-based surveillance (EBS) systems and risk modelling. The EBS systems use open-source internet data, such as media reports, official reports, and social media (such as Twitter) to detect evidence of an emerging threat, and can be used in conjunction with conventional surveillance systems to enhance early warning of public health threats. More recently, EBS systems include artificial intelligence applications such machine learning and natural language processing to increase the speed, capacity and accuracy of filtering, classifying and analysing health-related internet data. Risk modelling uses statistical and mathematical methods to assess the severity of disease emergence and spread given factors about the host (e.g. number of reported cases), pathogen (e.g. pathogenicity) and environment (e.g. climate suitability for reservoir populations). The types of data in these models are expanding to include health-related information from open-source internet data and information on mobility patterns of humans and goods. This information is helping to identify susceptible populations and predict the pathways from which infections might spread into new areas and new countries. As a powerful addition to traditional surveillance strategies that identify what has already happened, it is anticipated that EBS systems and risk modelling will increasingly be used to inform public health actions to prevent, detect and mitigate the climate change increases in infectious diseases.}, }
@article {pmid31285701, year = {2019}, author = {Howard, C and Huston, P}, title = {The health effects of climate change: Know the risks and become part of the solutions.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {114-118}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i05a01}, pmid = {31285701}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Climate change presents a clear and present danger to human health. Health impacts are already being demonstrated in Canada, which is warming at roughly twice the global rate. A recent United Nations Environment Emissions Gap Report noted that if countries maintain current emission efforts, emissions will exceed the targets laid out in the Paris Agreement and global warming will exceed 2ºC worldwide. An important consequence of global warming is an increase in health risks. Much can be done to prevent and mitigate the health impacts of climate change, and understanding and communicating these has been shown to be one of the best ways of motivating action. This editorial provides an overview of the some of the global and national initiatives underway to decrease emissions, and address the health risks of climate change in general, and highlights some of the national initiatives underway to mitigate the increased risk of infectious diseases in Canada in particular.}, }
@article {pmid31285700, year = {2019}, author = {Smith, BA and Fazil, A}, title = {How will climate change impact microbial foodborne disease in Canada?.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {108-113}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i04a05}, pmid = {31285700}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Foodborne disease is a major concern in Canada and represents a significant climate change-related threat to public health. Climate variables, including temperature and precipitation patterns, extreme weather events and ocean warming and acidification, are known to exert significant, complicated and interrelated effects along the entire length of the food chain. Foodborne diseases are caused by a range of bacteria, fungi, parasites and viruses, and the prevalence of these diseases is modified by climate change through alterations in the abundance, growth, range and survival of many pathogens, as well as through alterations in human behaviours and in transmission factors such as wildlife vectors. As climate change continues and/or intensifies, it will increase the risk of an adverse effect on food safety in Canada ranging from increased public health burden to the emergence of risks not currently seen in our food chain. Clinical and public health practitioners need to be aware of the existing and emerging risks to respond accordingly.}, }
@article {pmid31285699, year = {2019}, author = {Ng, V and Rees, EE and Lindsay, LR and Drebot, MA and Brownstone, T and Sadeghieh, T and Khan, SU}, title = {Could exotic mosquito-borne diseases emerge in Canada with climate change?.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {98-107}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i04a04}, pmid = {31285699}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Of the 3,500 species of mosquitoes worldwide, only a small portion carry and transmit the mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) that cause approximately half a million deaths annually worldwide. The most common exotic MBDs, such as malaria and dengue, are not currently established in Canada, in part because of our relatively harsh climate; however, this situation could evolve with climate change. Mosquitoes native to Canada may become infected with new pathogens and move into new regions within Canada. In addition, new mosquito species may move into Canada from other countries, and these exotic species may bring exotic MBDs as well. With high levels of international travel, including to locations with exotic MBDs, there will be more travel-acquired cases of MBDs. With climate change, there is the potential for exotic mosquito populations to become established in Canada. There is already a small area of Canada where exotic Aedes mosquitoes have become established although, to date, there is no evidence that these carry any exotic (or already endemic) MBDs. The increased risks of spreading MBDs, or introducing exotic MBDs, will need a careful clinical and public health response. Clinicians will need to maintain a high level of awareness of current trends, to promote mosquito bite prevention strategies, and to know the laboratory tests needed for early detection and when to report laboratory results to public health. Public health efforts will need to focus on ongoing active surveillance, public and professional awareness and mosquito control. Canadians need to be aware of the risks of acquiring exotic MBDs while travelling abroad as well as the risk that they could serve as a potential route of introduction for exotic MBDs into Canada when they return home.}, }
@article {pmid31285698, year = {2019}, author = {Ludwig, A and Zheng, H and Vrbova, L and Drebot, MA and Iranpour, M and Lindsay, LR}, title = {Increased risk of endemic mosquito-borne diseases in Canada due to climate change.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {91-97}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i04a03}, pmid = {31285698}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {There are currently over 80 species of mosquito endemic in Canada-although only a few of these carry pathogens that can cause disease in humans. West Nile virus, Eastern equine encephalitis virus and the California serogroup viruses (including the Jamestown Canyon and snowshoe hare viruses) are mosquito-borne viruses that have been found to cause human infections in North America, including in Canada. Over the last 20 years, the incidence of most of these endemic mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) has increased approximately 10% in Canada, due in large part to climate change. It is anticipated that both the mosquito lifecycle and virus transmission patterns will be affected by climate change, resulting in an increase in both the range and local abundance of several important mosquito species. Laboratory studies and mathematical modelling suggest that increased ambient temperatures, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events associated with climate change will likely continue to drive mosquito vector and MBD range expansion, increasing the duration of transmission seasons and leading to MBD-related epidemics. Furthermore, Canada's endemic MBDs have complex transmission cycles, involving multiple reservoir hosts (birds and mammals), multiple pathogens and multiple mosquito species-all of which may be sensitive to climate and other environmental changes, and making forecasting of potential emerging trends difficult. These expected climate-induced changes in mosquitoes and MBDs underline the need for continued (and expanded) surveillance and research to ensure timely and accurate evaluation of the risks to the public health of Canadians.}, }
@article {pmid31285696, year = {2019}, author = {Ogden, NH and Gachon, P}, title = {Climate change and infectious diseases: What can we expect?.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {76-80}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i04a01}, pmid = {31285696}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Global climate change, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is being particularly felt in Canada, with warming generally greater than in the rest of the world. Continued warming will be accompanied by changes in precipitation, which will vary across the country and seasons, and by increasing climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change will likely drive the emergence of infectious diseases in Canada by northward spread from the United States and introduction from elsewhere in the world via air and sea transport. Diseases endemic to Canada are also likely to re-emerge. This special issue describes key infectious disease risks associated with climate change. These include emergence of tick-borne diseases in addition to Lyme disease, the possible introduction of exotic mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue, more epidemics of Canada-endemic vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus, and increased incidence of foodborne illnesses. Risk is likely to be compounded by an aging population affected by chronic diseases, which results in greater sensitivity to infectious diseases. Identifying emerging disease risks is essential to assess our vulnerability, and a starting point to identify where public health effort is required to reduce the vulnerability and exposure of the Canadian population.}, }
@article {pmid31285333, year = {2019}, author = {Goldberg, MH and van der Linden, S and Maibach, E and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Discussing global warming leads to greater acceptance of climate science.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1906589116}, pmid = {31285333}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate change is an urgent global issue, with demands for personal, collective, and governmental action. Although a large body of research has investigated the influence of communication on public engagement with climate change, few studies have investigated the role of interpersonal discussion. Here we use panel data with 2 time points to investigate the role of climate conversations in shaping beliefs and feelings about global warming. We find evidence of reciprocal causality. That is, discussing global warming with friends and family leads people to learn influential facts, such as the scientific consensus that human-caused global warming is happening. In turn, stronger perceptions of scientific agreement increase beliefs that climate change is happening and human-caused, as well as worry about climate change. When assessing the reverse causal direction, we find that knowing the scientific consensus further leads to increases in global warming discussion. These findings suggest that climate conversations with friends and family enter people into a proclimate social feedback loop.}, }
@article {pmid31284196, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, RM}, title = {Mechanisms of soil organic carbon storage response to Spartina alterniflora invasion and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {690}, number = {}, pages = {7-15}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.472}, pmid = {31284196}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Coastal wetlands have been identified as vital global carbon (C) sinks; however, soil C sequestration in these ecosystems is susceptible to impacts of non-native species invasion and climate change worldwide. Although their potential impacts on soil organic C (SOC) storage have been reported in previous literature, the well-established mechanisms that control SOC storage response, especially in relation to soil depths, is still limited. To fill this knowledge gap, we developed a structural equation model (SEM) to identify mechanisms that account for SOC changes in topsoil (0-0.3 m) and subsoil (0.3-0.6 m) on coastal wetland of the East China Sea, where SOC in both depths increased with exotic Spartina alterniflora invasion. In the initial model, we hypothesized that there were a set of direct and indirect effects of the invasion, climate, and soil physicochemical properties on SOC storage. By evaluating the interactions of these factors, we found relatively complex patterns that vary with depth. For topsoil, the invasion had not only direct effects on SOC storage, but also indirect effects through mediating effects of soil water content (SWC) that was linked to fine soil fractions. For subsoil, the invasion was indirectly related to SOC storage through mediating effects of SOC in topsoil, SWC, and salinity. SOC in subsoil was also affected by temperature. Our results highlight that the response of SOC storage to the invasion and climate change results from the interacting effects of climate-plant-soil system.}, }
@article {pmid31279898, year = {2019}, author = {Wilke, ABB and Beier, JC and Benelli, G}, title = {Complexity of the relationship between global warming and urbanization - an obscure future for predicting increases in vector-borne infectious diseases.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2019.06.002}, pmid = {31279898}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Arthropod vectors are responsible for the transmission of many infectious diseases. Currently, more than three billion people living in endemic areas are exposed to vector-borne pathogens. Substantial differences in the biology of arthropod vectors make it extremely challenging to predict the incidence of vector-borne diseases in the future. However, global warming and urbanization both profoundly affect the ecology and distribution of arthropod vectors. Such processes often result in a biotic homogenization of species in a non-random process of biodiversity loss. The data presently available indicate a trend towards progressive increases in the presence and abundance of vectors capable of thriving in urban environments amongst humans, thus, increasing the contact between vectors and human hosts. As a consequence, we expect the incidence of vector-borne diseases to increase. In our opinion, resources should be made available and directed to strategies within the Integrated Vector Management framework, focusing on proven vector control tools. Besides, a substantial reduction of IVM costs would be achieved by observing environmental guidelines and providing basic sanitary infrastructure at early stages of its development. This could help to increase IVM effectiveness in attenuating social determinants of health and social inequities due to exposure to vectors.}, }
@article {pmid31276970, year = {2019}, author = {Libera, A and de Barros, FPJ and Faybishenko, B and Eddy-Dilek, C and Denham, M and Lipnikov, K and Moulton, D and Maco, B and Wainwright, H}, title = {Climate change impact on residual contaminants under sustainable remediation.}, journal = {Journal of contaminant hydrology}, volume = {226}, number = {}, pages = {103518}, doi = {10.1016/j.jconhyd.2019.103518}, pmid = {31276970}, issn = {1873-6009}, abstract = {This study investigates the potential impact of climate change on residual contaminants in vadose zones and groundwater. We assume that the effect of climate changes can be represented by perturbations in the natural recharge through the aquifer system. We perform numerical modeling of unsaturated/saturated flow and transport and consider different performance metrics: contaminant concentrations at observation wells and contaminant export at the site's boundary. We evaluate the effect of increasing and decreasing recharge as well as the impact of potential failure of surface capping structures employed to immobilize vadose zone contaminants. Our approach is demonstrated in a real case study by simulating transport of non-reactive radioactive tritium at the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site. Results show that recharge changes significantly affect well concentrations: after an initial slight dilution we identify a significant concentration increase at different observation wells some years after the recharge increase and/or the cap failure, as a consequence of contaminants' mobilization. This effect is generally emphasized and occurs earlier as the recharge increases. Under decreased aquifers' recharge the concentration could slightly increase for some years, due to a decrease of dilution, depending on the magnitude of the negative recharge shift. We identify trigger levels of recharge above which the concentration/export breakthrough curves and the time of exceedance of the Maximum Contaminant Level for tritium are remarkably affected. Moreover, we observe that the contaminant export at the control plane, identified as the risk pathway to the downgradient population, may only be minimally affected by shifts in the natural recharge regime, except for some extreme cases. We conclude that more frequent sampling and in-situ monitoring near the source zone should be adopted to better explain concentrations' anomalies under changing climatic conditions. Moreover, the maintenance of the cap is critical not only to sequester residual contaminants in the vadose zone, but also to reduce the uncertainty associated with future precipitation changes. Finally, realistic flow and transport simulations achieved through proper calibration processes, rather than conservative modeling, should be adopted to identify non-trivial trade-offs which enable better allocation of resources towards reducing uncertainty in decision making.}, }
@article {pmid31276080, year = {2019}, author = {Achakulwisut, P and Anenberg, SC and Neumann, JE and Penn, SL and Weiss, N and Crimmins, A and Fann, N and Martinich, J and Roman, H and Mickley, LJ}, title = {Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {127-144}, doi = {10.1029/2019GH000187}, pmid = {31276080}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantify the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework. We first demonstrate that U.S. Southwest fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) dust levels are strongly sensitive to variability in the 2-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index across southwestern North America. We then estimate potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying the observed sensitivities to downscaled meteorological output projected by six climate models following an intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenario. By 2080-2099 under RCP8.5 relative to 1986-2005 in the U.S. Southwest: (1) Fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust-attributable all-cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 230% and 360%, respectively; (2) coarse dust levels could increase by 38%, and coarse dust-attributable cardiovascular mortality and asthma emergency department visits could increase by 210% and 88%, respectively; (3) climate-driven changes in dust concentrations can account for 34-47% of these health impacts, with the rest due to increases in population and baseline incidence rates; and (4) economic damages of the health impacts could total $47 billion per year additional to the 1986-2005 value of $13 billion per year. Compared to national-scale climate impacts projected for other U.S. sectors using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework, dust-related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature-related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss.}, }
@article {pmid31275184, year = {2019}, author = {Marshall, NA and Thiault, L and Beeden, A and Beeden, R and Benham, C and Curnock, MI and Diedrich, A and Gurney, GG and Jones, L and Marshall, PA and Nakamura, N and Pert, P}, title = {Our Environmental Value Orientations Influence How We Respond to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {938}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00938}, pmid = {31275184}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {People variably respond to global change in their beliefs, behaviors, and grief (associated with losses incurred). People that are less likely to believe in climate change, adopt pro-environmental behaviors, or report ecological grief are assumed to have different psycho-cultural orientations, and do not perceive changes in environmental condition or any impact upon themselves. We test these assumptions within the context of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), a region currently experiencing significant climate change impacts in the form of coral reef bleaching and increasingly severe cyclones. We develop knowledge of environmental cultural services with the Environmental Schwartz Value Survey (ESVS) into four human value orientations that can explain individuals' environmental beliefs and behaviors: biospheric (i.e., concern for environment), altruistic (i.e., concern for others, and intrinsic values), egoistic (i.e., concern for personal resources) and hedonic values (i.e., concern for pleasure, comfort, esthetic, and spirituality). Using face-to-face quantitative survey techniques, where 1,934 residents were asked to agree or disagree with a range of statements on a scale of 1-10, we investigate people's (i) environmental values and value orientations, (ii) perceptions of environmental condition, and (iii) perceptions of impact on self. We show how they relate to the following climate change responses; (i) beliefs at a global and local scale, (ii) participation in pro-environmental behaviors, and (iii) levels of grief associated with ecological change, as measured by respective single survey questions. Results suggest that biospheric and altruistic values influenced all climate change responses. Egoistic values were only influential on grief responses. Perception of environmental change was important in influencing beliefs and grief, and perceptions of impact on self were only important in influencing beliefs. These results suggest that environmental managers could use people's environmental value orientations to more effectively influence climate change responses toward environmental stewardship and sustainability. Communications that target or encourage altruism (through understanding and empathy), biospherism (through information on climate change impacts on the environment), and egoism (through emphasizing the benefits, health and wellbeing derived from a natural resource in good condition), could work.}, }
@article {pmid31273907, year = {2019}, author = {Cummins, D and Kennington, WJ and Rudin-Bitterli, T and Mitchell, NJ}, title = {A genome-wide search for local adaptation in a terrestrial-breeding frog reveals vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14703}, pmid = {31273907}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Threatened Species Recovery Hub/ ; //University of Western Australia/ ; }, abstract = {Terrestrial-breeding amphibians are likely to be vulnerable to warming and drying climates, as their embryos require consistent moisture for successful development. Adaptation to environmental change will depend on sufficient genetic variation existing within or between connected populations. Here, we use Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) data to investigate genome-wide patterns in genetic diversity, gene flow and local adaptation in a terrestrial-breeding frog (Pseudophryne guentheri) subject to a rapidly drying climate and recent habitat fragmentation. The species was sampled across 12 central and range-edge populations (192 samples), and strong genetic structure was apparent, as were high inbreeding coefficients. Populations showed differences in genetic diversity, and one population lost significant genetic diversity in a decade. More than 500 SNP loci were putatively under directional selection, and 413 of these loci were correlated with environmental variables such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation and soil moisture. One locus showed homology to a gene involved in the activation of maturation in Xenopus oocytes, which may facilitate rapid development of embryos in drier climates. The low genetic diversity, strong population structuring and presence of local adaptation revealed in this study shows why management strategies such as targeted gene flow may be necessary to assist isolated populations to adapt to future climates.}, }
@article {pmid31270911, year = {2019}, author = {Nocco, MA and Smail, RA and Kucharik, CJ}, title = {Observation of irrigation-induced climate change in the Midwest United States.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14725}, pmid = {31270911}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellowship/ ; //University of Wisconsin Consortium for Extension and Research in Agriculture and Natural Resources/ ; //Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources/ ; //Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Graduate Fellowship Program/ ; //United States Department of Agriculture Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Program/ ; //Smith Family and Wisconsin Potato Industry Board Distinguished Graduate Fellowships/ ; //United States Environmental Protection Agency/ ; }, abstract = {Irrigated agriculture alters near-surface temperature and humidity, which may mask global climate change at the regional scale. However, observational studies of irrigation-induced climate change are lacking in temperate, humid regions throughout North America and Europe. Despite unknown climate impacts, irrigated agriculture is expanding in the Midwest United States, where unconfined aquifers provide groundwater to support crop production on coarse soils. This is the first study in the Midwest United States to observe and quantify differences in regional climate associated with irrigated agricultural conversion from forests and rainfed agriculture. To this end, we established a 60 km transect consisting of 28 stations across varying land uses and monitored surface air temperature and relative humidity for 31 months in the Wisconsin Central Sands region. We used a novel approach to quantify irrigated land use in both space and time with a database containing monthly groundwater withdrawal estimates by parcel for the state of Wisconsin. Irrigated agriculture decreased maximum temperatures and increased minimum temperatures, thus shrinking the diurnal temperature range (DTR) by an average of 3°C. Irrigated agriculture also decreased the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by an average of 0.10 kPa. Irrigated agriculture significantly decreased evaporative demand for 25% and 66% of study days compared to rainfed agriculture and forest, respectively. Differences in VPD across the land-use gradient were highest (0.21 kPa) during the peak of the growing season, while differences in DTR were comparable year-round. Interannual variability in temperature had greater impacts on differences in DTR and VPD across the land-use gradient than interannual variability in precipitation. These regional climate changes must be considered together with increased greenhouse gas emissions, changes to groundwater quality, and surface water degradation when evaluating the costs and benefits of groundwater-sourced irrigation expansion in the Midwest United States and similar regions around the world.}, }
@article {pmid31267598, year = {2019}, author = {Yazzie, JO and Fulé, PZ and Kim, YS and Sánchez Meador, A}, title = {Diné kinship as a framework for conserving native tree species in climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e01944}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1944}, pmid = {31267598}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {Climate change affects all ecosystems but despite increasing recognition for the needs to integrate Indigenous knowledge with modern climate science, the epistemological differences between the two make it challenging. In this study, we present how Indigenous belief and knowledge system can frame the application of a modeling tool (Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator). We focus on managing forest ecosystem services of the Diné (Navajo) Nation as a case study. Most Diné tribal members depend directly on the land for their livelihoods and cultural traditions. The forest plays a vital role in Diné livelihoods through social, cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic factors. We simulated forest dynamics over time under alternative climate change scenarios and management strategies to identify forest management strategies that will maintain future ecosystem services. We initialized the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator model with data from permanent plots and site-specific growth models under multiple management systems (no-management, thinning, burning, and assisted migration planting) and different climate scenarios (no-climate-change, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0). Projections of climate change show average losses of basal area by over 65% by 2105, a shift in tree species composition to drier-adapted species, and a decrease in species diversity. While substantial forest loss was inevitable under the warming climate scenarios, the modeling framework allowed us to evaluate the management treatments, including planting, for conserving multiple tree species in mixed conifer forests, thus providing an anchor for biodiversity. We presented the modeling results and management implications and discuss how they can complement Diné kinship concepts. Our approach is a useful step for framing modern science with Indigenous Knowledge and for developing improved strategies to sustain natural resources and livelihoods. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31267230, year = {2019}, author = {Mayes, S and Ho, WK and Chai, HH and Gao, X and Kundy, AC and Mateva, KI and Zahrulakmal, M and Hahiree, MKIM and Kendabie, P and Licea, LCS and Massawe, F and Mabhaudhi, T and Modi, AT and Berchie, JN and Amoah, S and Faloye, B and Abberton, M and Olaniyi, O and Azam-Ali, SN}, title = {Bambara groundnut: an exemplar underutilised legume for resilience under climate change.}, journal = {Planta}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00425-019-03191-6}, pmid = {31267230}, issn = {1432-2048}, support = {R3W26//international treaty for plant genetic resources for food and agriculture/ ; }, abstract = {MAIN CONCLUSION: Bambara groundnut has the potential to be used to contribute more the climate change ready agriculture. The requirement for nitrogen fixing, stress tolerant legumes is clear, particularly in low input agriculture. However, ensuring that existing negative traits are tackled and demand is stimulated through the development of markets and products still represents a challenge to making greater use of this legume. World agriculture is currently based on very limited numbers of crops, representing a significant risk to food supplies, particularly in the face of climate change which is expected to increase the frequency of extreme events. Minor and underutilised crops can help to develop a more resilient and nutritionally dense future agriculture. Bambara groundnut [Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.[, as a drought resistant, nitrogen-fixing, legume has a role to play. However, as with most underutilised crops, there are significant gaps in knowledge and also negative traits such as 'hard-to-cook' and 'photoperiod sensitivity to pod filling' associated with the crop which future breeding programmes and processing methods need to tackle, to allow it to make a significant contribution to the well-being of future generations. The current review assesses these factors and also considers what are the next steps towards realising the potential of this crop.}, }
@article {pmid31266964, year = {2019}, author = {Lane, SN and Bakker, M and Costa, A and Girardclos, S and Loizeau, JL and Molnar, P and Silva, T and Stutenbecker, L and Schlunegger, F}, title = {Making stratigraphy in the Anthropocene: climate change impacts and economic conditions controlling the supply of sediment to Lake Geneva.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {8904}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-44914-9}, pmid = {31266964}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; }, abstract = {The Anthropocene has been proposed as a profound, globally synchronous rupture in the history of the Earth System with its current state fundamentally different to that of the Holocene and driven by the geological force of human activity. Here, we show how stratigraphy is being made in a lake that is heavily impacted upon by climate change and human activities. For one of the largest inner-Alpine catchments in the European Alps, we draw attention to how sedimentation rates are a product of non-stationary, reflexive, human actions. In Lake Geneva, we identify both a human-induced climate change (HCC) signature and the effects of a recent economic shock on sediment extraction upon sediment loading to and sedimentation rates in the lake. The HCC signature thus reflects the nature of climate change impacts in this basin, where sediment accumulation rates evolve with climate, but where economic conditions contribute to shifts in the supply of sediment to the lake. Following social theory, we call this glocalization because of the combined importance and inseparability of human impacts across different spatial scales. The nature of human impacts on sediment delivery to the lake mean that the influence of humans is unlikely to be captured in the long-term depositional record.}, }
@article {pmid31266566, year = {2019}, author = {Chersich, MF and Swift, CP and Edelstein, I and Breetzke, G and Scorgie, F and Schutte, F and Wright, CY}, title = {Violence in hot weather: Will climate change exacerbate rates of violence in South Africa?.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {109}, number = {7}, pages = {447-449}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2019.v109i7.14134}, pmid = {31266566}, issn = {2078-5135}, }
@article {pmid31266553, year = {2019}, author = {Boeckmann, M and Roux, T and Robinson, M and Areal, A and Durusu, D and Wernecke, B and Manyuchi, A and Pham, MD and Wang, C and Hetem, R and Harden, L and Vargas, E and Wright, CY and Erasmus, BFN and Rees, H and Vogel, C and Wang, S and Black, V and Mabhikwa, M and Chersich Climate Change And Heat-Health Study Group, MF}, title = {Climate change and control of diarrhoeal diseases in South Africa: Priorities for action.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {109}, number = {6}, pages = {359-361}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2019.v109i6.14075}, pmid = {31266553}, issn = {2078-5135}, }
@article {pmid31265969, year = {2019}, author = {Díaz, J and López-Bueno, JA and Sáez, M and Mirón, IJ and Luna, MY and Sánchez-Martínez, G and Carmona, R and Barceló, MA and Linares, C}, title = {Will there be cold-related mortality in Spain over the 2021-2050 and 2051-2100 time horizons despite the increase in temperatures as a consequence of climate change?.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {176}, number = {}, pages = {108557}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.108557}, pmid = {31265969}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Global warming is resulting in an increase in temperatures which is set to become more marked by the end of the century and depends on the accelerating pace of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Yet even in this scenario, so-called &quot;cold waves&quot; will continue to be generated and have an impact on health.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: This study sought to analyse the impact of cold waves on daily mortality at a provincial level in Spain over the 2021-2050 and 2051-2100 time horizons under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, on the basis of two hypotheses: (1) that the cold-wave definition temperature (T threshold) would not vary over time; and, (2) that there would be a variation in T threshold.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: The results of a retrospective study undertaken for Spain as a whole across the period 2000-2009 enabled us to ascertain the cold-wave definition temperature at a provincial level and its impact on health, measured by reference to population attributable risk (PAR). The minimum daily temperatures projected for each provincial capital considering the above time horizons and emission scenarios were provided by the State Meteorological Agency. On the basis of the T threshold definition values and minimum daily temperatures projected for each province, we calculated the expected impact of low temperatures on mortality under the above two hypotheses. Keeping the PAR values constant, it was assumed that the mortality rate would vary in accordance with the available data.<br><br>RESULTS: If T threshold remained constant over the above time horizons under both emission scenarios, there would be no cold-related mortality. If T threshold were assumed to vary over time, however, then cold-related mortality would not disappear: it would instead remain practically constant over time and give rise to an estimated overall figure of around 250 deaths per year, equivalent to close on a quarter of Spain's current annual cold-related mortality and entailing a cost of approximately €1000 million per year.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Given that cold waves are not going to disappear and that their impact on mortality is far from negligible and is likely to remain so, public health prevention measures must be implemented to minimise these effects as far as possible.}, }
@article {pmid31263385, year = {2018}, author = {Deeb, R and Tufford, D and Scott, GI and Moore, JG and Dow, K}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Vibrio vulnificus Abundance and Exposure Risk.}, journal = {Estuaries and coasts : journal of the Estuarine Research Federation}, volume = {41}, number = {8}, pages = {2289-2303}, doi = {10.1007/s12237-018-0424-5}, pmid = {31263385}, issn = {1559-2723}, abstract = {Vibrio species are marine bacteria that occur in estuaries worldwide; many are virulent human pathogens with high levels of antibiotic resistance. The average annual incidence of all Vibrio infections has increased by 41% between 1996 and 2005. V. vulnificus (Vv), a species associated with shellfish and occurring in the US Southeast, has ranges of temperature (16-33 °C) and salinity (5-20 ppt) dependencies for optimal growth. Increased water temperatures caused by atmospheric warming and increased salinity gradients caused by sea level rise raise concerns for the effect of climate change on the geographic range of Vv and the potential for increased exposure risk. This research combined monthly field sampling, laboratory analysis, and modeling to identify the current occurrence of Vv in the Winyah Bay estuary (South Carolina, USA) and assess the possible effects of climate change on future geographic range and exposure risk in the estuary. Vv concentrations ranged from 0 to 58 colony forming units (CFU)/mL, salinities ranged from 0 to 28 ppt, and temperature from 18 to 31 °C. A significant empirical relationship was found between Vv concentration and salinity and temperature that fit well with published optimal ranges for growth for these environmental parameters. These results, when coupled with an existing model of future specific conductance, indicated that sea level rise has a greater impact on exposure risk than temperature increases in the estuary. Risk increased by as much as four times compared to current conditions with the largest temporally widespread increase at the most upriver site where currently there is minimal risk.}, }
@article {pmid31263272, year = {2019}, author = {Salinitro, M and Alessandrini, A and Zappi, A and Tassoni, A}, title = {Impact of climate change and urban development on the flora of a southern European city: analysis of biodiversity change over a 120-year period.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {9464}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-46005-1}, pmid = {31263272}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Ecological studies in cities are not only aimed at investigating floristic diversity, but also represent informative test cases for understanding ecological system dynamics and responses to urban and climate changes since cities represent microcosms of environmental changes happening globally. The city of Bologna was selected as a case study since two specific and complete studies have been carried out in a 120-years timespan, one in 1894 and one in 2018. Since 1894, a large increase occurred in the number of taxa (families from 41 to 101, species from 176 to 477) and alien species (from 22 to 144), with a 65% total species turnover. The comparison of species life forms pointed out a noticeable recent expansion of phanerophytes and geophytes at the expense of therophytes and hemicryptophytes. The correlation between urbanistic features and plant richness indicated that the main factor affecting plant richness is the presence of green spaces (parks, tree lines, flowerbeds, etc.). Analysis of variation in Ellenberg's indicator values over the last 120 years evidenced a shift toward shade-tolerant species, mainly connected to the increased presence of parks and trees within the city. Climate change and the presence of artificially irrigated areas within the city has led to an increase in both hygrophilous and drought-resistant species. In particular, the temperature index showed a significantly higher amount of macrothermal species in accordance with a warmer climate and the urban heat island effect.}, }
@article {pmid31262729, year = {2019}, author = {Bamji, AN}, title = {Climate change: overpopulation and landscape manipulation.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {l4423}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l4423}, pmid = {31262729}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid31262299, year = {2019}, author = {Vause, BJ and Morley, SA and Fonseca, VG and Jażdżewska, A and Ashton, GV and Barnes, DKA and Giebner, H and Clark, MS and Peck, LS}, title = {Spatial and temporal dynamics of Antarctic shallow soft-bottom benthic communities: ecological drivers under climate change.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {27}, doi = {10.1186/s12898-019-0244-x}, pmid = {31262299}, issn = {1472-6785}, support = {core funding to British Antarctic Survey//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Marine soft sediments are some of the most widespread habitats in the ocean, playing a vital role in global carbon cycling, but are amongst the least studied with regard to species composition and ecosystem functioning. This is particularly true of the Polar Regions, which are currently undergoing rapid climate change, the impacts of which are poorly understood. Compared to other latitudes, Polar sediment habitats also experience additional environmental drivers of strong seasonality and intense disturbance from iceberg scouring, which are major structural forces for hard substratum communities. This study compared sediment assemblages from two coves, near Rothera Point, Antarctic Peninsula, 67°S in order to understand the principal drivers of community structure, for the first time, evaluating composition across all size classes from mega- to micro-fauna.<br><br>RESULTS: Morpho-taxonomy identified 77 macrofaunal species with densities of 464-16,084 individuals m-2. eDNA metabarcoding of microfauna, in summer only, identified a higher diversity, 189 metazoan amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) using the 18S ribosomal RNA and 249 metazoan ASVs using the mitochondrial COI gene. Both techniques recorded a greater taxonomic diversity in South Cove than Hangar Cove, with differences in communities between the coves, although the main taxonomic drivers varied between techniques. Morphotaxonomy identified the main differences between coves as the mollusc, Altenaeum charcoti, the cnidarian Edwardsia sp. and the polychaetes from the family cirratulidae. Metabarcoding identified greater numbers of species of nematodes, crustaceans and Platyhelminthes in South Cove, but more bivalve species in Hangar Cove. There were no detectable differences in community composition, measured through morphotaxonomy, between seasons, years or due to iceberg disturbance.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study found that unlike hard substratum communities the diversity of Antarctic soft sediment communities is correlated with the same factors as other latitudes. Diversity was significantly correlated with grain size and organic content, not iceberg scour. The increase in glacial sediment input as glaciers melt, may therefore be more important than increased iceberg disturbance.}, }
@article {pmid31258222, year = {2017}, author = {Belfer, E and Ford, JD and Maillet, M}, title = {Representation of Indigenous peoples in climate change reporting.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {145}, number = {1}, pages = {57-70}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2076-z}, pmid = {31258222}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {This article examines how newspapers reporting on climate change have covered and framed Indigenous peoples. Focusing on eight newspapers in Canada, the USA, Australia, and New Zealand, we examine articles published from 1995 to 2015, and analyze them using content and framing analyses. The impacts of climate change are portrayed as having severe ecological, sociocultural, and health/safety impacts for Indigenous peoples, who are often framed as victims and &quot;harbingers&quot; of climate change. There is a strong focus on stories reporting on the Arctic. The lack of substantive discussion of colonialism or marginalization in the reviewed stories limits media portrayal of the structural roots of vulnerability, rendering climate change as a problem for, rather than of society. Indigenous and traditional knowledge is widely discussed, but principally as a means of corroborating scientific knowledge, or in accordance with romanticized portrayals of Indigenous peoples. Widespread disparities in the volume, content, and framing of coverage are also observed across the four nations.}, }
@article {pmid31259746, year = {2019}, author = {Vega, A and Castro, L}, title = {Impact of climate change on insect-human interactions.}, journal = {Current opinion in allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/ACI.0000000000000565}, pmid = {31259746}, issn = {1473-6322}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To update the influence of the global climate change on Hymenoptera venom allergy.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change facilitates biological invasions of hymenopteran species and plays a role in the impact of introduced species relevant for human health. It contributes to a rise in the incidence of sting injuries and allergy reactions across the world.<br><br>SUMMARY: Global climate change has contributed to the expansion and the redistribution of allergenic insect species, increasing the number of allergy cases caused by stinging insects worldwide. Imported insects are trending species in systemic reactions for multiple stings or hymenopteran venom allergy. They represent a threat for humans and a challenge for the allergists.}, }
@article {pmid31258813, year = {2019}, author = {Flynn, M and Ford, JD and Labbé, J and Schrott, L and Tagalik, S}, title = {Evaluating the effectiveness of hazard mapping as climate change adaptation for community planning in degrading permafrost terrain.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {1041-1056}, doi = {10.1007/s11625-018-0614-x}, pmid = {31258813}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {Permafrost in northern Canada is susceptible to degradation due to rapid climate change, with hazard mapping promoted as an important activity to guide sustainable community adaptation and planning. This paper presents a framework for evaluating permafrost mapping exercises designed to inform climate change adaptation actions. We apply the framework using a case study of the Incorporating Climate Change into Land Development-Terrain Analysis project (ICCiLD). ICCiLD is a hazard mapping project utilizing interferometric synthetic aperture radar to monitor ground disturbance and categorize land development suitability in seven communities in the territory of Nunavut, Canada. We looked at one of the communities, Arviat, as our case study. We examined technical data and drew upon semi-structured interviews (n = 19) with map creators and users. We found ICCiLD added new and relevant information for community planning, increased awareness of the risks posed by permafrost thaw and built stakeholder relations. Strong coordination and high public consciousness of local climate impacts emerged as key factors underpinning project success. Nevertheless, in the case of Arviat, the effectiveness of the hazard maps in influencing land-use planning was constrained by communication challenges between project creators and end-users. These challenges included limited community access to the data and uncertainty surrounding how to operationalize the map suitability classifications. Broader climate change adaptation challenges included the presence of other more immediate community planning priorities and a limited ability to incorporate Indigenous ways of knowing into a technical mapping project. The lessons from this evaluation provide insight for the development of mapping-based adaptations across Arctic regions.}, }
@article {pmid31257600, year = {2019}, author = {Borghi, M and de Souza, LP and Yoshida, T and Fernie, AR}, title = {Flowers and climate change: a metabolic perspective.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.16031}, pmid = {31257600}, issn = {1469-8137}, abstract = {Adverse climatic conditions at the time of flowering severely hinder crop yields and threaten the interactions between plants and their pollinators. These features depend on a common trait: the metabolism of flowers. Here, we want to draw attention on the metabolic changes that occur in flowers in response to a change in climate and emphasize that these modifications severely impact the fitness of autogamous and allogamous species, plant-pollinator interactions, as well as ecosystems. In this Viewpoint, we reviewed the biochemical processes that lead to failure of gamete development and to alterations of color, scent, and nectar secretion. Then, making use of open access expression data, we looked at the expression of genes that may drive these changes in response to heat and drought. Finally, we measured metabolites in flowers exposed to a heat wave and discussed how the results of this short-term experiment can give rise to misleading conclusions for the positive effect of heat on flower fitness. With this, we hope to raise attention on this often neglected topic and the consequences that it entails. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31256418, year = {2019}, author = {Eisenach, C}, title = {How Plants Respond to Climate Change. A new Virtual Special Issue of Plant, Cell &amp; Environment.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/pce.13604}, pmid = {31256418}, issn = {1365-3040}, }
@article {pmid31256407, year = {2019}, author = {Yu, TK and Chang, YJ and Chang, IC and Yu, TY}, title = {A pro-environmental behavior model for investigating the roles of social norm, risk perception, and place attachment on adaptation strategies of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-05806-7}, pmid = {31256407}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Today's climate change is a major problem and challenge for the global environment and human civilization, and it can lead to dramatical floods over specific regions. As climate change intensifies, climate change adaptation strategies, such as flood insurance, energy taxes, and other risky financial strategies, have drawn worldwide attention and discussion. Risk control methods have been widely used to mitigate the impact of climate change on past flood losses, but past risk control strategies on climate change have not focused on the exploration of the relationship between environment, society, and humans. Based on the theoretical model of pro-environmental behavior, this study compares and analyzes four theoretical models and proposes a modified competitiveness model to effectively predict the pro-environmental behavior of college students with partial least squares (PLS) manner. Social norm could play a dominant role of mediator between risk perception, place attachment, and pro-environmental behavior. Although risk perception and local attachment are positively related to risk financial strategy, the promotion of social norms will increase the intention of risk financial strategy. For intention of risk financial strategies within pro-environmental behavior, the efficiency of enhancing local attachment was higher than that of risk perception.}, }
@article {pmid31255964, year = {2019}, author = {Yu, TK and Lin, FY and Kao, KY and Chao, CM and Yu, TY}, title = {An innovative environmental citizen behavior model: Recycling intention as climate change mitigation strategies.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {247}, number = {}, pages = {499-508}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.06.101}, pmid = {31255964}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change has been led to the increasing magnitude of frequency and severity of extreme weather, causing serious damage to overall economy of a country and individual economy of enterprises. Only relying on government subsidy to combat the impact of climate change, the work could be in vain. This study tries to use recycling action as mitigation strategies of climate change, and analyze the dominant influencing factors that affect recycling intention. This study stands in the perspective of green education in universities, regards the recycling intentions in response to climate change as pro-environmental behaviors, and revises and verifies the citizen pro-environmental behavior model. The green educations programs can communicate, promote, active and internalize the environmental citizenship through resource recycling intentions. Students learn about the importance of advocacy and activism to environmental citizenship, then generate environmentally sustainable and recycling intentions, and achieve the goal of improving the environment and mitigating to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31254865, year = {2019}, author = {O'Connor, D and Zheng, X and Hou, D and Shen, Z and Li, G and Miao, G and O'Connell, S and Guo, M}, title = {Phytoremediation: Climate change resilience and sustainability assessment at a coastal brownfield redevelopment.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {130}, number = {}, pages = {104945}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.104945}, pmid = {31254865}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {Phytoremediation offers a nature based solution (NBS) for contaminated soil remediation; however, its application under a brownfield redevelopment context has not been well studied. Moreover, climate change could impact large numbers of contaminated sites, yet there remains little research on the potential impacts for remediation. This study examined phytoremediation at a brownfield redevelopment in the San Francisco Bay area, where thousands of cleanup sites are vulnerable to rising sea levels. Life cycle assessment (LCA) was used to determine both primary and secondary impacts and the system's resilience to various sea level scenarios and hydroclimatic conditions was investigated. It was found that the phytoremediation project rendered only a small environmental footprint, and was associated with low cost and substantial socioeconomic benefits. For instance, it fitted well with the site redevelopment setting by offering attractive landscape features. Moreover, under a modeled moderate sea level rise scenario, the groundwater hydraulic gradient at the site decreased, which was coupled with greater natural biodegradation and reduced plume migration, and, therefore, lower life cycle impact. There was also minimal increase in the vapor intrusion risk with increased sea level. Overall, phytoremediation at the site was found to be resilient to a moderate sea level rise and other hydroclimatic effects induced by climate change. However, the system performance responded to increasing sea level rise in a non-linear manner. Under a high sea level rise scenario, the system is predicted to perform abruptly worse.}, }
@article {pmid31254636, year = {2019}, author = {Miller, LP and Dowd, WW}, title = {Repeatable patterns of small-scale spatial variation in intertidal mussel beds and their implications for responses to climate change.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.06.016}, pmid = {31254636}, issn = {1531-4332}, abstract = {The interaction of ocean conditions and weather with small-scale physical features of a habitat can have profound effects on the experiences of individual organisms. On topographically complex shorelines, and particularly within dense aggregations of organisms such as mussel beds, a mosaic of environmental conditions can develop, and the resulting variation in conditions within the aggregation could drastically alter the performance of neighboring individuals. Using a suite of sensors mounted to individual Mytilus californianus mussels over two summer field deployments, we have characterized the temperature variation and valve gaping behavior differences found at two spatial scales: within a group separated by centimeters, and between groups of mussels located at the upper and lower extents of the natural mussel zone separated by meters. While temperature conditions near the lower edge of the mussel bed were generally more benign, temperature extremes were similar at both heights in the bed, and variation in body temperature among neighbors increased as the daily mean temperature increased. These patterns were similar across years despite a 3.8 °C difference in mean air and seawater temperatures between years. Gaping behavior was also highly variable among individuals, though that variability diminished at the high end of the mussel bed where the total time mussels spent submerged was much more constrained. These data indicate that an individual mussel's physiological status and past history can be drastically different than those of its nearby neighbors, complicating our ability to characterize representative conditions within a habitat. These observations also provide for the possibility that the impacts of future climate change will be highly specific to certain individuals based on their relative exposure or protection within the mosaic. To address such possibilities, future work must examine the correlation between genotypic and physiological traits that determine performance and individuals' unique experiences in their disparate micro-environments.}, }
@article {pmid31252133, year = {2019}, author = {Wijesiri, B and Liu, A and Hong, N and Zhu, P and Yang, B and Zhao, X and Goonetilleke, A}, title = {Rethinking hydrocarbons build-up on urban roads: A perspective on volatilisation under global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {252}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {950-959}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.06.044}, pmid = {31252133}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Stormwater is viewed as an alternative resource to mitigate water shortages. However, stormwater reuse is constrained due to the presence of many toxic pollutants such as hydrocarbons. Effective mitigation requires robust mathematical models for stormwater quality prediction based on an understanding of pollutant processes. However, the rise in global temperatures will impose changes to pollutant processes. This study has proposed a new perspective on modelling the build-up process of hydrocarbons, with a focus on volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Among organic compounds, VOCs are the most susceptible to changes as a result of global warming due to their volatility. Seven VOCs, namely, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, para-xylene, meta-xylene, ortho-xylene and styrene in road dust were investigated. The outcomes are expected to lay the foundation to overcoming the limitations in current modelling approaches such as not considering the influence of temperature and volatility, on the build-up process. A new conceptualisation is proposed for the classical build-up model by mathematically defining the volatility of VOCs in terms of temperature. Uncertainty in the re-conceptualised build-up model was quantified and was used to understand the build-up patterns in the future scenarios of global warming. Results indicated that for the likely scenarios, the variability in VOCs build-up gradually increases at the beginning of the dry period and then rapidly increases after around seven days, while the build-up reaches a near-constant value in a shorter dry period, limiting the variability. These initial research outcomes need to be further investigated given the expected impacts of global warming into the future.}, }
@article {pmid31250895, year = {2019}, author = {Levin, DA}, title = {Plant Speciation in the Age of Climate Change.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcz108}, pmid = {31250895}, issn = {1095-8290}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Species diversity is likely to undergo a sharp decline in the next century. Perhaps as many as 33% of all plant species may expire as a result of climate change (Pimm and Joppa, 2015; Ceballos et al. 2015). All parts of the globe will be impacted; and all groups of organisms will be affected. Hundreds of species throughout the world have already experienced local extinction.<br><br>PERSPECTIVES: While thousands of species may go extinct in the next century and beyond, species formation will still occur. I consider which modes of plant species formation are likely to prevail in the next 500 years. I argue that speciation primarily will involve mechanisms that produce reproductively isolated lineages within less (often much less) than 100 generations. I will not specially consider the human element in promoting species formation, because it will continue and because the conclusions presented here are unaffected by it. The impact of climate change may be much more severe and widespread.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The most common modes of speciation likely to be operative in the next 500 years ostensibly will be auto- and allopolyploidy. Polyploid species or the antecedents thereof can arise within two generations. Moreover, polyploids often have broader ecological tolerances, and are likely to be more invasive than are their diploid relatives. Polyploid species may themselves spawn additional higher level polyploids either through crosses with diploid species or between preexisting polyploids. The percentage of polyploid species is likely to exceed 50% within the next 500 years vs. 35% today. The stabilized hybrid derivatives (homoploid hybrid speciation) could emerge within a hundred generations after species contact, as could speciation involving chromosomal rearrangements (and perhaps number), but the number of such events is likely to be low. Speciation involving lineage splitting will be infrequent because the formation of substantive pre- and post-zygotic barriers typically takes many thousands of years.}, }
@article {pmid31249824, year = {2019}, author = {Liu-Helmersson, J and Brännström, Å and Sewe, MO and Semenza, JC and Rocklöv, J}, title = {Estimating Past, Present, and Future Trends in the Global Distribution and Abundance of the Arbovirus Vector Aedes aegypti Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {148}, doi = {10.3389/fpubh.2019.00148}, pmid = {31249824}, issn = {2296-2565}, abstract = {Background:Aedes aegypti is the principal vector for several important arbovirus diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika. While recent empirical research has attempted to identify the current global distribution of the vector, the seasonal, and longer-term dynamics of the mosquito in response to trends in climate, population, and economic development over the twentieth and the twenty-first century remains to be elucidated. Methods: In this study, we use a process-based mathematical model to estimate global vector distribution and abundance. The model is based on the lifecycle of the vector and its dependence on climate, and the model sensitivity to socio-economic development is tested. Model parameters were generally empirically based, and the model was calibrated to global databases and time series of occurrence and abundance records. Climate data on temperature and rainfall were taken from CRU TS3.25 (1901-2015) and five global circulation models (CMIP5; 2006-2099) forced by a high-end (RCP8.5) and a low-end (RCP2.6) emission scenario. Socio-economic data on global GDP and human population density were from ISIMIP (1950-2099). Findings: The change in the potential of global abundance in A. aegypti over the last century up to today is estimated to be an increase of 9.5% globally and a further increase of 20 or 30% by the end of this century under a low compared to a high carbon emission future, respectively. The largest increase has occurred in the last two decades, indicating a tipping point in climate-driven global abundance which will be stabilized at the earliest in the mid-twenty-first century. The realized abundance is estimated to be sensitive to socioeconomic development. Interpretation: Our data indicate that climate change mitigation, i.e., following the Paris Agreement, could considerably help in suppressing risks of increased abundance and emergence of A. aegypti globally in the second half of the twenty-first century.}, }
@article {pmid31249690, year = {2019}, author = {Morgan, R and Sundin, J and Finnøen, MH and Dresler, G and Vendrell, MM and Dey, A and Sarkar, K and Jutfelt, F}, title = {Are model organisms representative for climate change research? Testing thermal tolerance in wild and laboratory zebrafish populations.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coz036}, doi = {10.1093/conphys/coz036}, pmid = {31249690}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Model organisms can be useful for studying climate change impacts, but it is unclear whether domestication to laboratory conditions has altered their thermal tolerance and therefore how representative of wild populations they are. Zebrafish in the wild live in fluctuating thermal environments that potentially reach harmful temperatures. In the laboratory, zebrafish have gone through four decades of domestication and adaptation to stable optimal temperatures with few thermal extremes. If maintaining thermal tolerance is costly or if genetic traits promoting laboratory fitness at optimal temperature differ from genetic traits for high thermal tolerance, the thermal tolerance of laboratory zebrafish could be hypothesized to be lower than that of wild zebrafish. Furthermore, very little is known about the thermal environment of wild zebrafish and how close to their thermal limits they live. Here, we compared the acute upper thermal tolerance (critical thermal maxima; CTmax) of wild zebrafish measured on-site in West Bengal, India, to zebrafish at three laboratory acclimation/domestication levels: wild-caught, F1 generation wild-caught and domesticated laboratory AB-WT line. We found that in the wild, CTmax increased with increasing site temperature. Yet at the warmest site, zebrafish lived very close to their thermal limit, suggesting that they may currently encounter lethal temperatures. In the laboratory, acclimation temperature appeared to have a stronger effect on CTmax than it did in the wild. The fish in the wild also had a 0.85-1.01°C lower CTmax compared to all laboratory populations. This difference between laboratory-held and wild populations shows that environmental conditions can affect zebrafish's thermal tolerance. However, there was no difference in CTmax between the laboratory-held populations regardless of the domestication duration. This suggests that thermal tolerance is maintained during domestication and highlights that experiments using domesticated laboratory-reared model species can be appropriate for addressing certain questions on thermal tolerance and global warming impacts.}, }
@article {pmid31249081, year = {2019}, author = {Lawson, E}, title = {Debrief: Meeting the climate change challenge.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {69}, number = {684}, pages = {343}, doi = {10.3399/bjgp19X704333}, pmid = {31249081}, issn = {1478-5242}, }
@article {pmid31247003, year = {2019}, author = {Van der Fels-Klerx, HJ and Vermeulen, LC and Gavai, AK and Liu, C}, title = {Climate change impacts on aflatoxin B1 in maize and aflatoxin M1 in milk: A case study of maize grown in Eastern Europe and imported to the Netherlands.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218956}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218956}, pmid = {31247003}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Various models and datasets related to aflatoxins in the maize and dairy production chain have been developed and used but they have not yet been linked with each other. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on aflatoxin B1 production in maize and its consequences on aflatoxin M1 contamination in dairy cow's milk, using a full chain modelling approach. To this end, available models and input data were chained together in a modelling framework. As a case study, we focused on maize grown in Eastern Europe and imported to the Netherlands to be fed-as part of dairy cows' compound feed-to dairy cows in the Netherlands. Three different climate models, one aflatoxin B1 prediction model and five different carryover models were used. For this particular case study of East European maize, most of the calculations suggest an increase (up to 50%) of maximum mean aflatoxin M1 in milk by 2030, except for one climate (DMI) model suggesting a decrease. Results from all combinations of carryover and climate models suggest a similar or slight increase (up to 0.6%) of the chance of finding aflatoxin M1 in milk above the EC limit of 0.05 μg/kg by 2030. Results varied mainly with the climate model data and carryover model considered. The model framework infrastructure is flexible so that forecasting models for other mycotoxins or other food safety hazards as well as other production chains, together with necessary input databases, can easily be included as well. This modelling framework for the first time links datasets and models related to aflatoxin B1 in maize and related aflatoxin M1 the dairy production chain to obtain a unique predictive methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation. Such an integrated approach with scenario analysis provides possibilities for policy makers and risk managers to study the effects of changes in the beginning of the chain on the end product.}, }
@article {pmid31246980, year = {2019}, author = {Vahdati, K and Massah Bavani, AR and Khosh-Khui, M and Fakour, P and Sarikhani, S}, title = {Applying the AOGCM-AR5 models to the assessments of land suitability for walnut cultivation in response to climate change: A case study of Iran.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218725}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218725}, pmid = {31246980}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Due to higher temperatures and lower water availability, climate change is likely to have a major impact on walnut production in the near future. Climate change will alter the land suitability for walnut cultivation around the world, especially in arid and semi-arid regions like Iran. Here, land suitability for the cultivation of walnut (Juglans regia L.) in Iran was determined using the GIS for present and future conditions (2020-2049) with an approach to climate change. Accordingly, data from 375 synoptic stations throughout Iran were gathered for climatic factors including average, minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity and chilling requirement. Also, ASTER sensors (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) and their data provided this research with cells that make a precision of 150 m (5 s), and the data were used for gauging geological parameters such as altitude and land slope. The electrical conductivity (EC) of soil and water were informed by the data bank of the Iranian Water Resources Management. The results of temperature simulations for the future (2020-2049) were analyzed by 21 AOGCM-AR5 models under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. In the first phase of evaluations, the maps of land suitability were constructed for present conditions by considering a network of the above-mentioned parameters. By combining these layers of information, the final map of land suitability was illustrated for walnut cultivation. In the second phase, the NEX-GDDP was used in order to determine land suitability for the future (2020-2049). The results showed that Iran currently has 582844 km2 of land suitable for walnut cultivation. However, the future will see less suitable lands: the current area will be reduced by 6.19%, from 582844 km2 to 546710 km2. In general, the northern, northwestern and western margins of Iran are currently suitable for walnut cultivation. By approximation, these lands will also be major areas for prospective cultivations of walnut in the future (2020-2049), even though their current stretch will be reduced.}, }
@article {pmid31244082, year = {2019}, author = {Kalcic, MM and Muenich, RL and Basile, S and Steiner, AL and Kirchhoff, C and Scavia, D}, title = {Climate Change and Nutrient Loading in the Western Lake Erie Basin: Warming Can Counteract a Wetter Future.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b01274}, pmid = {31244082}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {In the past 20 years, Lake Erie has experienced a resurgence of harmful algal blooms and hypoxia driven by increased nutrient loading from its agriculturally dominated watersheds. The increase in phosphorus loading, specifically the dissolved reactive portion, has been attributed to a combination of changing climate and agricultural management. While many management practices and strategies have been identified to reduce phosphorus loads, the impacts of future climate remain uncertain. This is particularly the case for the Great Lakes region because many global climate models do not accurately represent the land-lake interactions that govern regional climate. For this study, we used midcentury (2046-2065) climate projections from one global model and four regional dynamically downscaled models as drivers for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool configured for the Maumee River watershed, the source of almost 50% of Lake Erie's Western Basin phosphorus load. Our findings suggest that future warming may lead to less nutrient runoff due to increased evapotranspiration and decreased snowfall, despite projected moderate increases in intensity and overall amount of precipitation. Results highlight the benefits of considering multiple environmental drivers in determining the fate of nutrients in the environment and demonstrate a need to improve approaches for climate change assessment using watershed models.}, }
@article {pmid31243844, year = {2019}, author = {Eaton, MJ and Yurek, S and Haider, Z and Martin, J and Johnson, FA and Udell, BJ and Charkhgard, H and Kwon, C}, title = {Spatial conservation planning under uncertainty: adapting to climate change risks using modern portfolio theory.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e01962}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1962}, pmid = {31243844}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {Climate change and urban growth impact habitats, species, and ecosystem services. To buffer against global change, an established adaptation strategy is designing protected areas to increase representation and complementarity of biodiversity features. Uncertainty regarding the scale and magnitude of landscape change complicates reserve planning and exposes decision makers to risk of failing to meet conservation goals. Conservation planning tends to treat risk as an absolute measure, ignoring the context of the management problem and risk preferences of stakeholders. Application to conservation of risk management theory emphasizes diversification of portfolio of assets, with the goal of reducing the impact of system volatility on investment return. We use principles of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which quantifies risk as the variance and correlation among assets, to formalize diversification as an explicit strategy for managing risk in climate-driven reserve design. We extend MPT to specify a framework that evaluates multiple conservation objectives, allows decision makers to balance management benefits and risk when preferences are contested or unknown, and includes additional decision options such as parcel divestment when evaluating candidate reserve designs. We apply an efficient search algorithm that optimizes portfolio design for large conservation problems and a game theoretic approach to evaluate portfolio tradeoffs that satisfy decision makers with divergent benefit and risk tolerances, or when a single decision maker cannot resolve their own preferences. Evaluating several risk profiles for a case study in South Carolina, our results suggest that a reserve design may be somewhat robust to differences in risk attitude but that budgets will likely be important determinants of conservation planning strategies, particularly when divestment is considered a viable alternative. We identify a possible fiscal threshold where adequate resources allow protecting a sufficiently diverse portfolio of habitats such that the risk of failing to achieve conservation objectives is considerably lower. For a range of sea-level rise projections, conversion of habitat to open water (14-180%) and wetland loss (1-7%) are unable to be compensated under the current protected network. In contrast, optimal reserve design outcomes are predicted to ameliorate expected losses relative to current and future habitat protected under the existing conservation estate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31241909, year = {2019}, author = {Vione, D and Scozzaro, A}, title = {Photochemistry of Surface Fresh Waters in the Framework of Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b00968}, pmid = {31241909}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Photochemical processes taking place in surface fresh waters play an important role in the transformation of biorecalcitrant pollutants and some natural compounds and in the inactivation of microorganisms. Such processes are divided into direct photolysis, where a molecule is transformed following sunlight absorption, and indirect photochemistry, where naturally occurring photosensitizers absorb sunlight and produce a range of transient species that can transform dissolved molecules (or inactivate microorganisms). Photochemistry is usually favored in thoroughly illuminated shallow waters, while the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) acts as a switch between different photochemical pathways (direct photolysis, and indirect photochemistry triggered by different transient species). Various phenomena connected with climate change (water browning, changing precipitations) may affect water DOC and water depth, with implications for the kinetics of photoreactions and the associated transformation pathways. The latter are important because they often produce peculiar intermediates, with particular health and environmental impacts. Further climate-induced effects with photochemical implications are shorter ice-cover seasons and enhanced duration of summer stratification in lakes, as well as changes in the flow velocity of rivers that affect the photodegradation time scale. This contribution aims at showing how the different climate-related phenomena can affect photoreactions and which approaches can be followed to quantitatively describe these variations.}, }
@article {pmid31239485, year = {2019}, author = {Vesely, FM and Paleari, L and Movedi, E and Bellocchi, G and Confalonieri, R}, title = {Quantifying Uncertainty Due to Stochastic Weather Generators in Climate Change Impact Studies.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {9258}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-45745-4}, pmid = {31239485}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change studies involve complex processes translating coarse climate change projections in locally meaningful terms. We analysed the behaviour of weather generators while downscaling precipitation and air temperature data. With multiple climate indices and alternative weather generators, we directly quantified the uncertainty associated with using weather generators when site specific downscaling is performed. We extracted the influence of weather generators on climate variability at local scale and the uncertainty that could affect impact assessment. For that, we first designed the downscaling experiments with three weather generators (CLIMAK, LARS-WG, WeaGETS) to interpret future projections. Then we assessed the impacts of estimated changes of precipitation and air temperature for a sample of 15 sites worldwide using a rice yield model and an extended set of climate metrics. We demonstrated that the choice of a weather generator in the downscaling process may have a higher impact on crop yield estimates than the climate scenario adopted. Should they be confirmed, these results would indicate that widely accepted outcomes of climate change studies using this downscaling technique need reconsideration.}, }
@article {pmid31239484, year = {2019}, author = {Ranasinghe, R and Wu, CS and Conallin, J and Duong, TM and Anthony, EJ}, title = {Disentangling the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on fluvial sediment supply to the coast by the world's large rivers: Pearl River Basin, China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {9236}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-45442-2}, pmid = {31239484}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The world's large rivers are under stress and experiencing unprecedented changes in hydrology, ecosystems, and fluvial sediment loads. Many of these rivers terminate at the great deltas of the world (home to 500 million people), which depend on fluvial sediments for their very existence. While fluvial sediment loads of large rivers have already been greatly modified by human activities, climate change is expected to further exacerbate the situation. But how does the effect of climate change on fluvial sediment loads compare with that of human impacts? Here, we address this question by combining historical observations and 21st century projections for one of the world's largest 25 rivers containing two mega dams; Pearl River, China. Our analysis shows that variations in fluvial sediment supply to the coast from the Pearl river over a ~150 year study period are dominated by human activities. Projected climate change driven 21st century increases in riverflow will only compensate for about 1% of the human induced deficit in sediment load, leading to the coastal zone being starved of about 6000 Mt of sediment over the remainder of this century. A similar dominance of human impacts on fluvial sediment supply is likely at other heavily engineered rivers.}, }
@article {pmid31237731, year = {2019}, author = {Kavousi, J}, title = {Biological interactions: The overlooked aspects of marine climate change refugia.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14743}, pmid = {31237731}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change refugia are currently considered an inseparable part of biological conservation in both marine and terrestrial ecosystems. However, our understanding of marine refugia effectiveness remains limited despite many valuable efforts made in recent years. Certain studies have suggested criteria to assess potential marine climate change refugia (e.g., Kavousi &amp; Keppel, 2018), while others proposed specific refugia to conserve (e.g. Cacciapaglia &amp; van Woesik, 2016 and references therein). While I acknowledge that determining the most effective marine climate change refugia is an urgent necessary action to protect marine biota, I propose that ruling out biological interactions may result in far less accurate estimations of the effectiveness of potential long-term refugia and short-term refuges (defined by Keppel et al., 2012) for marine species, which could subsequently lead to overly optimistic ecosystem management strategies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31236623, year = {2019}, author = {Garnier, M and Holman, I}, title = {Critical Review of Adaptation Measures to Reduce the Vulnerability of European Drinking Water Resources to the Pressures of Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01184-5}, pmid = {31236623}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {One of the consequences of the generally agreed rise of global temperatures, furtherly exacerbated by the growth of water demand caused by the needs of a growing population, is an increase of areas with water stress. This will imply and in part is already implying, an always greater imbalance between water (and in particular drinking water) demand and supply. These issues are among those investigated by the &quot;Adapting Drinking Water resources to the Impacts of Climate change in Europe&quot; (ADWICE) project that had, among its main goals, the identification of priority adaptation measures aimed at reducing drinking water vulnerability to the pressures of a changing climate. In this paper these adaptation measures are described, with special attention given to their associated European water policy context. The complexity of designing and implementing such adaptation measures will benefit from integrating drinking water concerns with wider water management, within a framework able to facilitate the necessary complex collaborations between various actors involved in the different scales of the decision-making arena and to develop an effective science policy interfacing mechanism. Last, but not least, because drinking water is commonly considered by stakeholders and citizens to be a public service, drinking water managers should enable their involvement in the adaptation decision-making process, to ensure their acceptance and cooperation and to prevent conflicts.}, }
@article {pmid31236252, year = {2019}, author = {Ji, NN and Gao, C and Sandel, B and Zheng, Y and Chen, L and Wu, BW and Li, XC and Wang, YL and Lü, PP and Sun, X and Guo, LD}, title = {Late Quaternary climate change explains soil fungal community composition rather than fungal richness in forest ecosystems.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {6678-6692}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5247}, pmid = {31236252}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The dramatic climate fluctuations of the late Quaternary have influenced the diversity and composition of macroorganism communities, but how they structure belowground microbial communities is less well known. Fungi constitute an important component of soil microorganism communities. They play an important role in biodiversity maintenance, community assembly, and ecosystem functioning, and differ from many macroorganisms in many traits. Here, we examined soil fungal communities in Chinese temperate, subtropical, and tropic forests using Illumina MiSeq sequencing of the fungal ITS1 region. The relative effect of late Quaternary climate change and contemporary environment (plant, soil, current climate, and geographic distance) on the soil fungal community was analyzed. The richness of the total fungal community, along with saprotrophic, ectomycorrhizal (EM), and pathogenic fungal communities, was influenced primarily by the contemporary environment (plant and/or soil) but not by late Quaternary climate change. Late Quaternary climate change acted in concert with the contemporary environment to shape total, saprotrophic, EM, and pathogenic fungal community compositions and with a stronger effect in temperate forest than in tropic-subtropical forest ecosystems. Some contemporary environmental factors influencing total, saprotrophic, EM, and pathogenic fungal communities in temperate and tropic-subtropical forests were different. We demonstrate that late Quaternary climate change can help to explain current soil fungal community composition and argue that climatic legacies can help to predict soil fungal responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31236054, year = {2019}, author = {Shepherd, TG}, title = {Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information.}, journal = {Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {475}, number = {2225}, pages = {20190013}, doi = {10.1098/rspa.2019.0013}, pmid = {31236054}, issn = {1364-5021}, abstract = {Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about what has happened, and what will happen (conditional on scenario). The approach is effective for the global, thermodynamic aspects of climate change, but is ineffective when it comes to aspects of climate change related to atmospheric circulation, which are highly uncertain. Yet, atmospheric circulation strongly mediates climate impacts at the regional scale. In this way, the confidence framework, which focuses on avoiding type 1 errors (false alarms), raises the prospect of committing type 2 errors (missed warnings). This has ethical implications. At the regional scale, however, where information on climate change has to be combined with many other factors affecting vulnerability and exposure-most of which are highly uncertain-the societally relevant question is not 'What will happen?' but rather 'What is the impact of particular actions under an uncertain regional climate change?' This reframing of the question can cut the Gordian knot of regional climate change information, provided one distinguishes between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties-something that is generally not done in climate projections. It is argued that the storyline approach to climate change-the identification of physically self-consistent, plausible pathways-has the potential to accomplish precisely this.}, }
@article {pmid31235700, year = {2019}, author = {van Ruijven, BJ and De Cian, E and Sue Wing, I}, title = {Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {2762}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-10399-3}, pmid = {31235700}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {756194//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council)/International ; DE-SC0005171//DOE | SC | Biological and Environmental Research (BER)/International ; DE-SC0016162//DOE | SC | Biological and Environmental Research (BER)/International ; }, abstract = {Future energy demand is likely to increase due to climate change, but the magnitude depends on many interacting sources of uncertainty. We combine econometrically estimated responses of energy use to income, hot and cold days with future projections of spatial population and national income under five socioeconomic scenarios and temperature increases around 2050 for two emission scenarios simulated by 21 Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we show that, across 210 realizations of socioeconomic and climate scenarios, vigorous (moderate) warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation around 2050 by 25-58% (11-27%), on top of a factor 1.7-2.8 increase above present-day due to socioeconomic developments. We find broad agreement among ESMs that energy demand rises by more than 25% in the tropics and southern regions of the USA, Europe and China. Socioeconomic scenarios vary widely in the number of people in low-income countries exposed to increases in energy demand.}, }
@article {pmid31230387, year = {2019}, author = {Carvalho, SB and Torres, J and Tarroso, P and Velo-Antón, G}, title = {Genes on the edge: a framework to detect genetic diversity imperiled by climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14740}, pmid = {31230387}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Ongoing global warming is disrupting several ecological and evolutionary processes, spanning different levels of biological organization. Species are expected to shift their ranges as a response to climate change, with relevant implications to peripheral populations at the trailing and leading edges. Several studies have analyzed the exposure of species to climate change but few have explored exposure at the intra-specific level. We introduce a framework to forecast exposure to climate change at the intra-specific level. We build on existing methods by combining correlative species distribution models, a model of species range dynamics and a model of phylogeographic interpolation. We demonstrate the framework by applying it to 20 Iberian amphibian and reptile species. Our aims were: 1) Identify which species and intra-specific lineages will be most exposed to future climate change; 2) test if nucleotide diversity at the edges of species ranges are significant higher or lower than on the overall range; 3) analyze if areas of higher species gain, loss and turnover coincide with those predicted for lineages richness and nucleotide diversity. We found that about 80% of the studied species are predicted to contract their range. Within each species, some lineages were predicted to contract their range, while others were predicted to maintain or expand it. Therefore, estimating the impacts of climate change at the species level only can underestimate losses at the intra-specific level. Some species had significant high amount of nucleotide at the trailing or leading edge, or both, but we did not find a consistent pattern across species. Spatial patterns of species richness, gain, loss and turnover, were fairly concurrent with lineages richness and nucleotide diversity. Our results support the need for increased attention to intra-specific diversity regarding monitoring and conservation strategies under climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31228060, year = {2019}, author = {Khafaie, MA and Sayyah, M and Rahim, F}, title = {Extreme pollution, climate change, and depression.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-05727-5}, pmid = {31228060}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid31228014, year = {2019}, author = {Lewandowsky, S and Cook, J and Fay, N and Gignac, GE}, title = {Science by social media: Attitudes towards climate change are mediated by perceived social consensus.}, journal = {Memory &amp; cognition}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3758/s13421-019-00948-y}, pmid = {31228014}, issn = {1532-5946}, abstract = {Internet blogs have become an important platform for the discussion of many scientific issues, including climate change. Blogs, and in particular the comment sections of blogs, also play a major role in the dissemination of contrarian positions that question mainstream climate science. The effect of this content on people's attitudes is not fully understood. In particular, it is unknown how the interaction between the content of blog posts and blog comments affects readers' attitudes. We report an experiment that orthogonally varied those two variables using blog posts and comments that either did, or did not, support the scientific consensus on climate change. We find that beliefs are partially shaped by readers' perception of how widely an opinion expressed in a blog post appears to be shared by other readers. The perceived social consensus among readers, in turn, is determined by whether blog comments endorse or reject the contents of a post. When comments reject the content, perceived reader consensus is lower than when comments endorse the content. The results underscore the importance of perceived social consensus on opinion formation.}, }
@article {pmid31227948, year = {2019}, author = {Zhu, W and Yao, N and Guo, Q and Wang, F}, title = {Public risk perception and willingness to mitigate climate change: city smog as an example.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10653-019-00355-x}, pmid = {31227948}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {17CGL046//National Social Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change harms people's health and ecosystems. Encouraging the public to adopt behaviors that help to combat climate change can, at the same time, contribute to efforts to control and solve related serious environmental problems. This study aims to ascertain the way in which the public perceives risks related to climate change and adopts behaviors to respond to the issue. Using city smog as an example, this study proposes a conceptual model that integrates the theory of planned behavior (TPB), smog knowledge and risk perception. It aims to elucidate determinants of smog-reduction behavior. Data were obtained through questionnaire surveys. The results confirm the relationships among the core variables of the TPB and risk perception. Firstly, they confirm that TPB is an effective model for predicting responses to city smog, and secondly, they show that risk perception is significantly positive in predicting attitude and behavioral intention. In addition, our analysis confirms that knowledge about smog is a positive antecedent variable in risk perception, attitude, and perceived behavioral control. The paper contributes to the extension of the TPB model and to the enrichment of its application in the context of city smog. It also has practical implications both for people experiencing city smog, and for authorities such as local governments and environmental organizations. Governments and organizations need to make efforts to spread information concerning the harmful effects of city smog, because in doing so they can strengthen people's intention to participate in smog-reduction behavior.}, }
@article {pmid31226560, year = {2019}, author = {Lienhardt, T and Black, K and Saget, S and Costa, MP and Chadwick, D and Rees, RM and Williams, M and Spillane, C and Iannetta, PM and Walker, G and Styles, D}, title = {Just the tonic! Legume biorefining for alcohol has the potential to reduce Europe's protein deficit and mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {130}, number = {}, pages = {104870}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.05.064}, pmid = {31226560}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {Industrialised agriculture is heavily reliant upon synthetic nitrogen fertilisers and imported protein feeds, posing environmental and food security challenges. Increasing the cultivation of leguminous crops that biologically fix nitrogen and provide high protein feed and food could help to address these challenges. We report on the innovative use of an important leguminous crop, pea (Pisum sativum L.), as a source of starch for alcohol (gin) production, yielding protein-rich animal feed as a co-product. We undertook life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the environmental footprint of 1 L of packaged gin produced from either 1.43 kg of wheat grain or 2.42 kg of peas via fermentation and distillation into neutral spirit. Allocated environmental footprints for pea-gin were smaller than for wheat-gin across 12 of 14 environmental impact categories considered. Global warming, resource depletion, human toxicity, acidification and terrestrial eutrophication footprints were, respectively, 12%, 15%, 15%, 48% and 68% smaller, but direct land occupation was 112% greater, for pea-gin versus wheat-gin. Expansion of LCA boundaries indicated that co-products arising from the production of 1 L of wheat- or pea-gin could substitute up to 0.33 or 0.66 kg soybean animal feed, respectively, mitigating considerable greenhouse gas emissions associated with land clearing, cultivation, processing and transport of such feed. For pea-gin, this mitigation effect exceeds emissions from gin production and packaging, so that each L of bottled pea gin avoids 2.2 kg CO2 eq. There is great potential to scale the use of legume starches in production of alcoholic beverages and biofuels, reducing dependence on Latin American soybean associated with deforestation and offering considerable global mitigation potential in terms of climate change and nutrient leakage - estimated at circa 439 Tg CO2 eq. and 8.45 Tg N eq. annually.}, }
@article {pmid31222177, year = {2019}, author = {Montero, N and Tomillo, PS and Saba, VS and Dei Marcovaldi, MAG and López-Mendilaharsu, M and Santos, AS and Fuentes, MMPB}, title = {Effects of local climate on loggerhead hatchling production in Brazil: Implications from climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {8861}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-45366-x}, pmid = {31222177}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Sea turtle eggs are heavily influenced by the environment in which they incubate, including effects on hatching success and hatchling viability (hatchling production). It is crucial to understand how the hatchling production of sea turtles is influenced by local climate and how potential changes in climate may impact future hatchling production. Generalized Additive Models were used to determine the relationship of six climatic variables at different temporal scales on loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) hatchling production at seventeen nesting beaches in Bahia, Espirito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Using extreme and conservative climate change scenarios throughout the 21st century, potential impacts on future hatching success (the number of hatched eggs in a nest) were predicted using the climatic variable(s) that best described hatchling production at each nesting beach. Air temperature and precipitation were found to be the main drivers of hatchling production throughout Brazil. CMIP5 climate projections are for a warming of air temperature at all sites throughout the 21st century, while projections for precipitation vary regionally. The more tropical nesting beaches in Brazil, such as those in Bahia, are projected to experience declines in hatchling production, while the more temperate nesting beaches, such as those in Rio de Janeiro, are projected to experience increases in hatchling production by the end of the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid31221380, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, H and Huo, S and Yeager, KM and Li, C and Xi, B and Zhang, J and He, Z and Ma, C}, title = {Apparent relationships between anthropogenic factors and climate change indicators and POPs deposition in a lacustrine system.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {83}, number = {}, pages = {174-182}, doi = {10.1016/j.jes.2019.03.024}, pmid = {31221380}, issn = {1001-0742}, abstract = {Climate change and anthropogenic activities are expected to impact the environmental behaviors and fates of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), however, quantitative studies on these combined factors are scarce. In this study, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDTs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were used as examples to identify how and when those factors may be related to the deposition of POPs in the sediment of Lake Chaohu, China, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Three historical trends of DDT, PAH, and PCB deposition were delineated in a dated sediment core encompassing ~100 years of historical record: a steady state or gradually increasing stage, a rapidly increasing stage, and a declining stage. The GAM results showed that aquatic total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and regional GDP (anthropogenic factors) were dominant contributors to POP accumulation rates in the lake sediment. The fitted relationships between air temperature and sedimentary DDT and PAH concentrations were linear and negative, while a positive linear relationship was found for PCBs, suggesting that Lake Chaohu may have become a net source for DDTs and PAHs, and a sink for PCBs, under a progressively warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid31220731, year = {2019}, author = {Augustynczik, ALD and Yousefpour, R and Hanewinkel, M}, title = {Climate change and the provision of biodiversity in public temperate forests - A mechanism design approach for the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {246}, number = {}, pages = {706-716}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.05.089}, pmid = {31220731}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The provision of forest biodiversity remains a major challenge in the management of forest resources. Biodiversity is mostly considered a public good and the fact that societal benefits from biodiversity are private information, hinders its supply at adequate levels. Here we investigate how the government, as a forest owner, may increase the biodiversity supply in publicly-owned forests. We employ a mechanism design approach to find the biodiversity provision choices, which take into account agents' strategic behavior and values towards biodiversity. We applied our framework to a forest landscape in Southwestern Germany, using forest birds as biodiversity indicators and evaluating the impacts of climate change on forest dynamics and on the costs of biodiversity provision. Our results show that climate change has important implications to the opportunity cost of biodiversity and the provision levels (ranging from 10 to 12.5% increase of the bird indicator abundance). In general, biodiversity valuations needed to surpass the opportunity cost by more than 18% to cope with the private information held by the agents. Moreover, higher costs under more intense climate change (e.g. Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) reduced the attainable bird abundance increase from 12.5 to 10%. We conclude that mechanism design may provide key information for planning conservation policies and identify conditions for a successful implementation of biodiversity-oriented forest management.}, }
@article {pmid31220712, year = {2019}, author = {Adeloye, AJ and Dau, QV}, title = {Hedging as an adaptive measure for climate change induced water shortage at the Pong reservoir in the Indus Basin Beas River, India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {687}, number = {}, pages = {554-566}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.021}, pmid = {31220712}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study investigated the adaptive capacity of static and dynamic hedging operating policies to shore up the performance, i.e. reliability and vulnerability, in irrigation water supply of Pong reservoir in India, during climate change. The policies were developed using genetic algorithm optimisation and used to force reservoir simulations for different climate change perturbed inflow series, whence derive the performance. For static hedging, the hedging fraction remains constant throughout the year while for dynamic hedging, this fraction varies monthly or seasonally. Results showed that static hedging was effective at tempering the systems vulnerability from its high of ≥60% to lower than 25%, while maintaining an acceptable volume-based reliability. Further simulations with dynamic hedging provided only modest improvements in these two indices. The significance of this study is its demonstration of the effectiveness of hedging as a climate change adaptation measure by limiting water shortage impacts. It also demonstrates that simple static hedging can match more complex dynamic hedging policies.}, }
@article {pmid31220193, year = {2019}, author = {Kosaka, T and Nakajima, Y and Ishii, A and Yamashita, M and Yoshida, S and Murata, M and Kato, K and Shiromaru, Y and Kato, S and Kanesaki, Y and Yoshikawa, H and Matsutani, M and Thanonkeo, P and Yamada, M}, title = {Correction: Capacity for survival in global warming: Adaptation of mesophiles to the temperature upper limit.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218985}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218985}, pmid = {31220193}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215614.].}, }
@article {pmid31220135, year = {2019}, author = {Leopold, CR and Hess, SC}, title = {Facilitating adaptation to climate change while restoring a montane plant community.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218516}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218516}, pmid = {31220135}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Montane plant communities throughout the world have responded to changes in temperature regimes by shifting ranges upward in elevation, and made downslope movements to track shifts in climatic water balance. Organisms that cannot disperse or adapt biologically to projected climate scenarios in situ may decrease in distributional range and abundance over time. Restoration strategies will need to incorporate the habitat suitability of future predicted conditions to ensure long-term persistence. We propagated seedlings of three native Hawaiian montane plant species from high- (~2,500 m asl) and low-elevation (~1,900 m asl) sources, planted them in 8 common plots along a 500 m elevation gradient, and monitored microclimate at each plot for 20 weeks. We explored how temperature and precipitation influenced survival and growth differently among high- and low-elevation origin seedlings. Significantly more seedlings of only one species, Dodonaea viscosa, from high-elevation origin (75.2%) survived than seedlings from low-elevation origin (58.7%) across the entire elevation gradient. Origin also influenced survival in generalized linear mixed models that controlled for temperature, precipitation, and elevation in D. viscosa and Chenopodium oahuense. Survival increased with elevation and soil moisture for Sophora chrysophylla, while it decreased for the other two species. Responses to microclimate varied between the three montane plant species; there were no common patterns of growth or survival. Although limited in temporal scope, our experiment represents one of the few attempts to examine local adaptation to prospective climate scenarios and addresses challenges to restoration efforts within species' current ranges.}, }
@article {pmid31218931, year = {2019}, author = {Abu Qdais, H and Wuensh, C and Dornack, C and Nassour, A}, title = {The role of solid waste composting in mitigating climate change in Jordan.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {734242X19855424}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X19855424}, pmid = {31218931}, issn = {1096-3669}, abstract = {Solid waste composting has never been practised on a full scale in Jordan. However, the National Solid Waste Management Strategy recommended five major composting facilities to be put into operation starting from 2025. According to the Ministry of Environment, the waste sector is contributing to 10.6% of the total greenhouse gas emissions of the country. The main objective of this study was to assess the potential of solid waste composting in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in Jordan. Applying the upstream-operating-downstream account framework and developing a model that estimates the greenhouse gas emissions, it was possible to estimate the emissions associated with composting of source-segregated bio-waste, which was compared with three other scenarios, including business as usual (dumping and landfilling), sanitary landfilling, and anaerobic digestion. The assessment revealed that composting and anaerobic digestion of the total generated source-segregated bio-waste (Scenarios 3 and 4) have the least net greenhouse gas emissions with 1.1 million Mg CO2-eq y-1, while engineered sanitary landfilling and dumping have net emissions of 2.6 and 3.75 million Mg CO2-eq y-1, respectively. The findings of this research are paving the way to make informed and responsible decisions in the Jordanian solid waste sector to adopt sustainable and integrated management options.}, }
@article {pmid31217650, year = {2019}, author = {Senapati, N and Brown, HE and Semenov, MA}, title = {Raising genetic yield potential in high productive countries: Designing wheat ideotypes under climate change.}, journal = {Agricultural and forest meteorology}, volume = {271}, number = {}, pages = {33-45}, doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.02.025}, pmid = {31217650}, issn = {0168-1923}, abstract = {Designing crop ideotype is an important step to raise genetic yield potential in a target environment. In the present study, we designed wheat ideotypes based on the state-of-the-art knowledge in crop physiology to increase genetic yield potential for the 2050-climate, as projected by the HadGEM2 global climate model for the RCP8.5 emission scenario, in two high-wheat-productive countries, viz. the United Kingdom (UK) and New Zealand (NZ). Wheat ideotypes were optimized to maximize yield potential for both water-limited (IW2050) and potential (IP2050) conditions by using Sirius model and exploring the full range of cultivar parameters. On average, a 43-51% greater yield potential over the present winter wheat cv. Claire was achieved for IW2050 in the UK and NZ, whereas a 51-62% increase was obtained for IP2050 . Yield benefits due to the potential condition over water-limitation were small in the UK, but 13% in NZ. The yield potentials of wheat were 16% (2.6 t ha-1) and 31% (5 t ha-1) greater in NZ than in the UK under 2050-climate in water-limited and potential conditions respectively. Modelling predicts the possibility of substantial increase in genetic yield potential of winter wheat under climate change in high productive countries. Wheat ideotypes optimized for future climate could provide plant scientists and breeders with a road map for selection of the target traits and their optimal combinations for wheat improvement and genetic adaptation to raise the yield potential.}, }
@article {pmid31217625, year = {2019}, author = {Van Houtven, G and Phelan, J and Clark, C and Sabo, RD and Buckley, J and Thomas, RQ and Horn, K and LeDuc, SD}, title = {Nitrogen deposition and climate change effects on tree species composition and ecosystem services for a forest cohort.}, journal = {Ecological monographs}, volume = {89}, number = {2}, pages = {e01345}, doi = {10.1002/ecm.1345}, pmid = {31217625}, issn = {0012-9615}, abstract = {The composition of forests in the northeastern United States and the ecosystem services they provide to future generations will depend on several factors. In this paper, we isolate the effects of two environmental drivers, nitrogen (N) deposition and climate (temperature and precipitation) change, through an analysis of a single cohort of 24 dominant tree species. We assembled a tree database using data from U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis monitoring plots. Applying observed species-specific growth and survival responses, we simulated how forest stands in a 19-state study area would change from 2005 to 2100 under 12 different future N deposition-climate scenarios. We then estimated implications for three selected forest ecosystem services: merchantable timber, aboveground carbon sequestration, and tree diversity. Total tree biomass (for 24 species combined) was positively associated with both increased N deposition and temperatures; however, due to differences in the direction and magnitude of species-specific responses, forest composition varied across scenarios. For example, red maple (Acer rubrum) trees gained biomass under scenarios with more N deposition and more climate change, whereas biomass of yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis) and red pine (Pinus resinosa) was negatively affected. Projections for ecosystem services also varied across scenarios. Carbon sequestration, which is positively associated with biomass accumulation, increased with N deposition and increasing climate change. Total timber values also increased with overall biomass; however, scenarios with increasing climate change tended to favor species with lower merchantable value, whereas more N deposition favored species with higher merchantable value. Tree species diversity was projected to decrease with greater changes in climate (warmer temperatures), especially in the northwestern, central, and southeastern portions of the study area. In contrast, the effects of N deposition on diversity varied greatly in magnitude and direction across the study area. This study highlights species-specific and regional effects of N deposition and climate change in northeastern U.S. forests, which can inform management decision for air quality and forests in the region, as well as climate policy. It also provides a foundation for future studies that may incorporate other important factors such as multiple cohorts, sulfur deposition, insects, and diseases.}, }
@article {pmid31216349, year = {2019}, author = {Akpan, GE and Adepoju, KA and Oladosu, OR}, title = {Potential distribution of dominant malaria vector species in tropical region under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218523}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218523}, pmid = {31216349}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Risk assessment regarding the distribution of malaria vectors and environmental variables underpinning their distribution under changing climates is crucial towards malaria control and eradication. On this basis, we used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Model to estimate the potential future distribution of major transmitters of malaria in Nigeria-Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and its siblings: Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and Anopheles arabiensis under low and high emissions scenarios. In the model, we used mosquito occurrence data sampled from 1900 to 2010 alongside land use and terrain variables, and bioclimatic variables for baseline climate 1960-1990 and future climates of 2050s (2041-2060) and 2070s (2061-2080) that follow RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Anopheles gambiae species are projected to experience large shift in potential range and population with increased distribution density, higher under high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and 2070s than low emission scenario (RCP2.6) and 2050s. Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and Anopheles arabiensis are projected to have highest invasion with 47-70% and 10-14% percentage increase, respectively in Sahel and Sudan savannas within northern states in 2041-2080 under RCP8.5. Highest prevalence is predicted for Humid forest and Derived savanna in southern and North Central states in 2041-2080; 91-96% and 97-99% for Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and 67-71% and 72-75% for Anopheles arabiensis under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The higher magnitude of change in species prevalence predicted for the later part of the 21st century under high emission scenario, driven mainly by increasing and fluctuating temperature, alongside longer seasonal tropical rainfall accompanied by drier phases and inherent influence of rapid land use change, may lead to more significant increase in malaria burden when compared with other periods and scenarios during the century; especially in Humid forest, Derived savanna, Sahel and Sudan savannas.}, }
@article {pmid31213707, year = {2019}, author = {Cavicchioli, R and Ripple, WJ and Timmis, KN and Azam, F and Bakken, LR and Baylis, M and Behrenfeld, MJ and Boetius, A and Boyd, PW and Classen, AT and Crowther, TW and Danovaro, R and Foreman, CM and Huisman, J and Hutchins, DA and Jansson, JK and Karl, DM and Koskella, B and Mark Welch, DB and Martiny, JBH and Moran, MA and Orphan, VJ and Reay, DS and Remais, JV and Rich, VI and Singh, BK and Stein, LY and Stewart, FJ and Sullivan, MB and van Oppen, MJH and Weaver, SC and Webb, EA and Webster, NS}, title = {Scientists' warning to humanity: microorganisms and climate change.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41579-019-0222-5}, pmid = {31213707}, issn = {1740-1534}, abstract = {In the Anthropocene, in which we now live, climate change is impacting most life on Earth. Microorganisms support the existence of all higher trophic life forms. To understand how humans and other life forms on Earth (including those we are yet to discover) can withstand anthropogenic climate change, it is vital to incorporate knowledge of the microbial 'unseen majority'. We must learn not just how microorganisms affect climate change (including production and consumption of greenhouse gases) but also how they will be affected by climate change and other human activities. This Consensus Statement documents the central role and global importance of microorganisms in climate change biology. It also puts humanity on notice that the impact of climate change will depend heavily on responses of microorganisms, which are essential for achieving an environmentally sustainable future.}, }
@article {pmid31213189, year = {2019}, author = {Calatayud, J and Rodríguez, MÁ and Molina-Venegas, R and Leo, M and Horreo, JL and Hortal, J}, title = {Pleistocene climate change and the formation of regional species pools.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1905}, pages = {20190291}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2019.0291}, pmid = {31213189}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {Although the description of bioregions dates back to the origin of biogeography, the processes originating their associated species pools have been seldom studied. Ancient historical events are thought to play a fundamental role in configuring bioregions, but the effects of more recent events on these regional biotas are largely unknown. We used a network approach to identify regional and sub-regional faunas of European Carabus beetles and developed a method to explore the relative contribution of dispersal barriers, niche similarities and phylogenetic history on their configuration. We identify a transition zone matching the limit of the ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum. While southern species pools are mostly separated by dispersal barriers, in the north species are mainly sorted by their environmental niches. Strikingly, most phylogenetic structuration of Carabus faunas occurred during the Pleistocene. Our results show how extreme recent historical events-such as Pleistocene climate cooling, rather than just deep-time evolutionary processes-can profoundly modify the composition and structure of geographical species pools.}, }
@article {pmid31211860, year = {2019}, author = {Wise, DH and Lensing, JR}, title = {Impacts of rainfall extremes predicted by climate-change models on major trophic groups in the leaf-litter arthropod community.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13046}, pmid = {31211860}, issn = {1365-2656}, abstract = {1.Arthropods in the leaf-litter layer of forest soils influence ecosystem processes such as decomposition. Climate-change models predict both increases and decreases in average rainfall. Increased drought may have greater impacts on the litter arthropod community. In addition to affecting survival or behavior of desiccation-sensitive species, lower rainfall may indirectly lower abundances of consumers that graze drought-stressed fungi, with repercussions for higher trophic levels. 2. We tested the hypothesis that trophic structure will differ between the two rainfall scenarios. In particular, we hypothesized that densities of several broadly defined trophic groupings of arthropods would be lower under reduced rainfall. 3. To test this hypothesis we used sprinklers to impose two rainfall treatments during three growing seasons in roofed, fenced 14-m2 plots; and documented changes in abundance from initial, pre-treatment densities of 39 arthropod taxa. Experimental plots were subjected to either LOW (fortnightly) or HIGH (weekly) average rainfall based upon climate models and the previous 100 years of regional weekly averages. Unroofed open plots, our reference treatment (REF), experienced higher-than-average rainfall during the experiment. 4. The two rainfall extremes produced clear negative effects of lowered rainfall on major trophic groups. Broad categories of fungivores, detritivores and predators were more abundant in HIGH than LOW plots by the final year. Springtails (Collembola), which graze fungal hyphae, were 3x more abundant in the HIGH-rainfall treatment. Taxa of larger-bodied fungivores and detritivores, spiders (Araneae), and non-spider predators were 2x more abundant under HIGH rainfall. Densities of mites (Acari), which include fungivores, detritivores and predators, were 1.5x greater in HIGH rainfall plots. Abundances and community structure of arthropods were similar in REF and experimental plots, showing that effects of rainfall uncovered in the experiment are applicable to nature. 5. This pattern suggests that changes in rainfall will alter bottom-up control processes in a critical detritus-based food web of deciduous forests. Our results, in conjunction with other findings on the impact of desiccation on arthropods and fungal growth, suggest that drier conditions will depress densities of fungal consumers, causing declines in higher trophic levels, with possible impacts on soil processes and the larger forest food web. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31209292, year = {2019}, author = {de Souza, JG and Robinson, M and Maezumi, SY and Capriles, J and Hoggarth, JA and Lombardo, U and Novello, VF and Apaéstegui, J and Whitney, B and Urrego, D and Alves, DT and Rostain, S and Power, MJ and Mayle, FE and da Cruz, FW and Hooghiemstra, H and Iriarte, J}, title = {Climate change and cultural resilience in late pre-Columbian Amazonia.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-019-0924-0}, pmid = {31209292}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {The long-term response of ancient societies to climate change has been a matter of global debate. Until recently, the lack of integrative studies using archaeological, palaeoecological and palaeoclimatological data prevented an evaluation of the relationship between climate change, distinct subsistence strategies and cultural transformations across the largest rainforest of the world, Amazonia. Here we review the most relevant cultural changes seen in the archaeological record of six different regions within Greater Amazonia during late pre-Columbian times. We compare the chronology of those cultural transitions with high-resolution regional palaeoclimate proxies, showing that, while some societies faced major reorganization during periods of climate change, others were unaffected and even flourished. We propose that societies with intensive, specialized land-use systems were vulnerable to transient climate change. In contrast, land-use systems that relied primarily on polyculture agroforestry, resulting in the formation of enriched forests and fertile Amazonian dark earth in the long term, were more resilient to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31207282, year = {2019}, author = {Klymasz-Swartz, AK and Allen, GJP and Treberg, JR and Yoon, GR and Tripp, A and Quijada-Rodriguez, AR and Weihrauch, D}, title = {Impact of climate change on the American lobster (Homarus americanus): Physiological responses to combined exposure of elevated temperature and pCO2.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.06.005}, pmid = {31207282}, issn = {1531-4332}, abstract = {The physiological consequences of exposing marine organisms to predicted future ocean scenarios, i.e. simultaneous increase in temperature and pCO2, have only recently begun to be investigated. Adult American lobster (Homarus americanus) were exposed to either current (16 °C, 47 Pa pCO2, pH 8.10) or predicted year 2300 (20 °C, 948 Pa pCO2, pH 7.10) ocean parameters for 14-16 days prior to assessing physiological changes in their hemolymph parameters as well as whole animal ammonia excretion and resting metabolic rate. Acclimation of lobster simultaneously to elevated pCO2 and temperature induced a prolonged respiratory acidosis that was only partially compensated for via accumulation of extracellular HCO3- and ammonia. Furthermore, acclimated animals possessed significantly higher ammonia excretion and oxygen consumption rates suggesting that future ocean scenarios may increase basal energetic demands on H. americanus. Enzyme activity related to protein metabolism (glutamine dehydrogenase, alanine aminotransferase, and aspartate aminotransferase) in hepatopancreas and muscle tissue were unaltered in future ocean scenario exposed animals; however, muscular citrate synthase activity was reduced suggesting that, while protein catabolism may be unchanged, the net energetic output of muscle may be compromised in future scenarios. Overall, H. americanus acclimated to ocean conditions predicted for the year 2300 appear to be incapable of fully compensating against climate change-related acid-base challenges and experience an increase in metabolic waste excretion and oxygen consumption. Combining our study with past literature on H. americanus suggests that the whole lifecycle from larvae to adult stages is at risk of severe growth, survival and reproductive consequences due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31203848, year = {2019}, author = {Chala, D and Roos, C and Svenning, JC and Zinner, D}, title = {Species-specific effects of climate change on the distribution of suitable baboon habitats - Ecological niche modeling of current and Last Glacial Maximum conditions.}, journal = {Journal of human evolution}, volume = {132}, number = {}, pages = {215-226}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhevol.2019.05.003}, pmid = {31203848}, issn = {1095-8606}, abstract = {Baboons (genus Papio) have been proposed as a possible analogous phylogeographic model for intra-African dispersal of hominins during the Pleistocene. Previous studies of the genus reveal complex evolutionary dynamics including introgressive hybridization and, as for hominins, it has been hypothesized that past climate change has been a major driver in their evolutionary history. However, how historical climate changes affected the distribution and extent of baboon habitats is not clear. We therefore employed three ecological niche modeling algorithms (maximum entropy model: MaxEnt; general additive model: GAM; gradient boosting model: GBM) to map suitable habitat of baboons at both genus and species levels under two extreme late-Quaternary climates: current (warm period) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, cold period). The three model algorithms predicted habitat suitabilities for the baboon species with high accuracy, as indicated by AUC values of 0.83-0.85 at genus level and ≥0.90 for species. The results suggest that climate change from LGM to current affected the distribution and extent of suitable habitats for the genus Papio only slightly (>80% of the habitat remained suitable). However, and in contrast to our expectation for ecological generalists, individual species have been differentially affected. While P. ursinus and P. anubis lost some of their suitable habitats (net loss 25.5% and 13.3% respectively), P. kindae and P. papio gained large portions (net gain >62%), and P. cynocephalus and P. hamadryas smaller portions (net gain >20%). Overlap among the specific realized climate niches remained small, suggesting only slight overlap of suitable habitat among species. Results of our study further suggest that shifts of suitable habitats could have led to isolation and reconnection of populations which most likely affected gene flow among them. The impact of historic climate changes on baboon habitats might have been similar for other savanna living species, such as hominins.}, }
@article {pmid31203758, year = {2019}, author = {Spicer, JI and Morley, SA and Bozinovic, F}, title = {Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1778}, pages = {20190032}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2019.0032}, pmid = {31203758}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Documenting and explaining global patterns of biodiversity in time and space have fascinated and occupied biologists for centuries. Investigation of the importance of these patterns, and their underpinning mechanisms, has gained renewed vigour and importance, perhaps becoming pre-eminent, as we attempt to predict the biological impacts of global climate change. Understanding the physiological features that determine, or constrain, a species' geographical range and how they respond to a rapidly changing environment is critical. While the ecological patterns are crystallizing, explaining the role of physiology has just begun. The papers in this volume are the primary output from a Satellite Meeting of the Society of Experimental Biology Annual Meeting, held in Florence in July 2018. The involvement of two key environmental factors, temperature and oxygen, was explored through the testing of key hypotheses. The aim of the meeting was to improve our knowledge of large-scale geographical differences in physiology, e.g. metabolism, growth, size and subsequently our understanding of the role and vulnerability of those physiologies to global climate warming. While such an aim is of heuristic interest, in the midst of our current biodiversity crisis, it has an urgency that is difficult to overstate. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.}, }
@article {pmid31203756, year = {2019}, author = {Bennett, S and Duarte, CM and Marbà, N and Wernberg, T}, title = {Integrating within-species variation in thermal physiology into climate change ecology.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1778}, pages = {20180550}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0550}, pmid = {31203756}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Accurately forecasting the response of global biota to warming is a fundamental challenge for ecology in the Anthropocene. Within-species variation in thermal sensitivity, caused by phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation of thermal limits, is often overlooked in assessments of species responses to warming. Despite this, implicit assumptions of thermal niche conservatism or adaptation and plasticity at the species level permeate the literature with potentially important implications for predictions of warming impacts at the population level. Here we review how these attributes interact with the spatial and temporal context of ocean warming to influence the vulnerability of marine organisms. We identify a broad spectrum of thermal sensitivities among marine organisms, particularly in central and cool-edge populations of species distributions. These are characterized by generally low sensitivity in organisms with conserved thermal niches, to high sensitivity for organisms with locally adapted thermal niches. Important differences in thermal sensitivity among marine taxa suggest that warming could adversely affect benthic primary producers sooner than less vulnerable higher trophic groups. Embracing the spatial, temporal and biological context of within-species variation in thermal physiology helps explain observed impacts of ocean warming and can improve forecasts of climate change vulnerability in marine systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.}, }
@article {pmid31203298, year = {2019}, author = {Johnson, RJ and Sánchez-Lozada, LG and Newman, LS and Lanaspa, MA and Diaz, HF and Lemery, J and Rodriguez-Iturbe, B and Tolan, DR and Butler-Dawson, J and Sato, Y and Garcia, G and Hernando, AA and Roncal-Jimenez, CA}, title = {Climate Change and the Kidney.}, journal = {Annals of nutrition &amp; metabolism}, volume = {74 Suppl 3}, number = {}, pages = {38-44}, doi = {10.1159/000500344}, pmid = {31203298}, issn = {1421-9697}, abstract = {The worldwide increase in temperature has resulted in a marked increase in heat waves (heat extremes) that carries a markedly increased risk for morbidity and mortality. The kidney has a unique role not only in protecting the host from heat and dehydration but also is an important site of heat-associated disease. Here we review the potential impact of global warming and heat extremes on kidney diseases. High temperatures can result in increased core temperatures, dehydration, and blood hyperosmolality. Heatstroke (both clinical and subclinical whole-body hyperthermia) may have a major role in causing both acute kidney disease, leading to increased risk of acute kidney injury from rhabdomyolysis, or heat-induced inflammatory injury to the kidney. Recurrent heat and dehydration can result in chronic kidney disease (CKD) in animals and theoretically plays a role in epidemics of CKD developing in hot regions of the world where workers are exposed to extreme heat. Heat stress and dehydration also has a role in kidney stone formation, and poor hydration habits may increase the risk for recurrent urinary tract infections. The resultant social and economic consequences include disability and loss of productivity and employment. Given the rise in world temperatures, there is a major need to better understand how heat stress can induce kidney disease, how best to provide adequate hydration, and ways to reduce the negative effects of chronic heat exposure.}, }
@article {pmid31202139, year = {2019}, author = {Balsara, S and Jain, PK and Ramesh, A}, title = {An integrated approach using AHP and DEMATEL for evaluating climate change mitigation strategies of the Indian cement manufacturing industry.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {252}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {863-878}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.05.059}, pmid = {31202139}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Concrete, a cement-based product is the highest manufactured and second highest consumed product after water on earth. Across the world, production of cement is the most energy and emission intensive industry hence, the cement industry is currently under pressure to reduce greenhouse gases emissions (GHGEs). However, reducing the GHGEs of the cement industry especially for developing country like India is not an easy task. Cement manufacturing industry needs to focus on significant climate change mitigation strategies to reduce the GHGEs to sustain its production. This study aims at identifying significant climate change mitigation strategies of the cement manufacturing industry in the context of India. Extant literature review and expert opinion are used to identify climate change mitigation strategies of the cement manufacturing industry. In the present study, a model projects by applying both AHP and DEMATEL techniques to assess the climate change mitigation strategies of the cement industry. The AHP technique help in establishing the priorities of climate change mitigation strategies, while the DEMATEL technique forms the causal relationships among them. Through AHP, the results of this research demonstrate that Fuel emission reduction is on top most priority while the relative importance priority of the main remaining factors is Process emission reduction - Electric energy-related emission - Emission avoidance and reduction - Management mitigation measures. The findings also indicate that the main factors, Process emission reduction, and Fuel emission reduction are categorized in cause group factors, while the remaining factors, Electric energy-related emission, Emission avoidance and reduction and Management mitigation measures are in effect group factors. Present model will help supply chain analysts to develop both short-term and long-term decisive measures for effectively managing and reducing GHGEs.}, }
@article {pmid31202136, year = {2019}, author = {Ma, Y and Liu, L and Schwenke, G and Yang, B}, title = {The global warming potential of straw-return can be reduced by application of straw-decomposing microbial inoculants and biochar in rice-wheat production systems.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {252}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {835-845}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.06.006}, pmid = {31202136}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Straw-return methods that neither negatively impact yield nor bring environmental risk are ideal patterns. To attain this goal, it is necessary to conduct field observation to evaluate the environmental influence of different straw-return methods. Therefore, we conducted a 2-year field study in 2015-2017 to investigate the emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and the changes in topsoil (0-20 cm) organic carbon (SOC) density in a typical Chinese rice-wheat rotation in the Eastern China. These measurements allowed a complete greenhouse gas accounting (net GWP and GHGI) of five treatments including: FP (no straw, plus fertilizer), FS (wheat straw plus fertilizer), FB (straw-derived biochar plus fertilizer), FSDI (wheat straw with straw-decomposing microbial inoculants plus fertilizer) and CK (control: no straw, no fertilizer). Average annual SOC sequestration rates were estimated to be 0.20, 0.97, 1.97 and 1.87 t C ha-1 yr-1 (0-20 cm) for the FP, FS, FB and FSDI treatments respectively. Relative to the FP treatment, the FS and FSDI treatments increased CH4 emissions by 12.4 and 17.9% respectively, but decreased N2O emissions by 19.1 and 26.6%. Conversely, the FB treatment decreased CH4 emission by 7.2% and increased N2O emission by 10.9% compared to FP. FB increased grain yield, but FS and FSDI did not. Compared to the net GWP (11.6 t CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1) and GHGI (1.20 kg CO2-eq kg-1 grain) of FP, the FS, FB and FSDI treatments reduced net GWP by 12.6, 59.9 and 34.6% and GHGI by 10.5, 65.8 and 37.7% respectively. In rice-wheat systems of eastern China, the environmentally beneficial effects of returning wheat straw can be greatly enhanced by application of straw-decomposing microbial inoculants or by applying straw-derived biochar.}, }
@article {pmid31197167, year = {2019}, author = {Debortoli, NS and Clark, DG and Ford, JD and Sayles, JS and Diaconescu, EP}, title = {An integrative climate change vulnerability index for Arctic aviation and marine transportation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {2596}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-10347-1}, pmid = {31197167}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate change vulnerability research methods are often divergent, drawing from siloed biophysical risk approaches or social-contextual frameworks, lacking methods for integrative approaches. This substantial gap has been noted by scientists, policymakers and communities, inhibiting decision-makers' capacity to implement adaptation policies responsive to both physical risks and social sensitivities. Aiming to contribute to the growing literature on integrated vulnerability approaches, we conceptualize and translate new integrative theoretical insights of vulnerability research to a scalable quantitative method. Piloted through a climate change vulnerability index for aviation and marine sectors in the Canadian Arctic, this study demonstrates an avenue of applying vulnerability concepts to assess both biophysical and social components analyzing future changes with linked RCP climate projections. The iterative process we outline is transferable and adaptable across the circumpolar north, as well as other global regions and shows that transportation vulnerability varies across Inuit regions depending on modeled hazards and transportation infrastructures.}, }
@article {pmid31196987, year = {2019}, author = {Kubelka, V and Šálek, M and Tomkovich, P and Végvári, S and Freckleton, RP and Székely, T}, title = {Response to Comment on &quot;Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds&quot;.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {364}, number = {6445}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw9893}, pmid = {31196987}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Bulla et al dispute our main conclusion that the global pattern of nest predation is disrupted in shorebirds. We disagree with Bulla et al's conclusions and contest the robustness of their outcomes. We reaffirm our results that provide clear evidence that nest predation has increased significantly in shorebirds, especially in the Arctic.}, }
@article {pmid31196986, year = {2019}, author = {Bulla, M and Reneerkens, J and Weiser, EL and Sokolov, A and Taylor, AR and Sittler, B and McCaffery, BJ and Ruthrauff, DR and Catlin, DH and Payer, DC and Ward, DH and Solovyeva, DV and Santos, ESA and Rakhimberdiev, E and Nol, E and Kwon, E and Brown, GS and Hevia, GD and Gates, HR and Johnson, JA and van Gils, JA and Hansen, J and Lamarre, JF and Rausch, J and Conklin, JR and Liebezeit, J and Bêty, J and Lang, J and Alves, JA and Fernández-Elipe, J and Exo, KM and Bollache, L and Bertellotti, M and Giroux, MA and van de Pol, M and Johnson, M and Boldenow, ML and Valcu, M and Soloviev, M and Sokolova, N and Senner, NR and Lecomte, N and Meyer, N and Schmidt, NM and Gilg, O and Smith, PA and Machín, P and McGuire, RL and Cerboncini, RAS and Ottvall, R and van Bemmelen, RSA and Swift, RJ and Saalfeld, ST and Jamieson, SE and Brown, S and Piersma, T and Albrecht, T and D'Amico, V and Lanctot, RB and Kempenaers, B}, title = {Comment on &quot;Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds&quot;.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {364}, number = {6445}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw8529}, pmid = {31196986}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Kubelka et al (Reports, 9 November 2018, p. 680) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.}, }
@article {pmid31194805, year = {2019}, author = {Ferreira, MT and Cardoso, P and Borges, PAV and Gabriel, R and de Azevedo, EB and Elias, RB}, title = {Implications of climate change to the design of protected areas: The case study of small islands (Azores).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218168}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218168}, pmid = {31194805}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change is causing shifts in species distributions worldwide. Understanding how species distributions will change with future climate change is thus critical for conservation planning. Impacts on oceanic islands are potentially major given the disproportionate number of endemic species and the consequent risk that local extinctions might become global ones. In this study, we use species climate envelope models to evaluate the current and future potential distributions of Azorean endemic species of bryophytes, vascular plants, and arthropods on the Islands of Terceira and São Miguel in the Azores archipelago (Macaronesia). We examined projections of climate change effects on the future distributions of species with particular focus on the current protected areas. We then used spatial planning optimization software (PRION) to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas at preserving species both in the present and future. We found that contractions of species distributions in protected areas are more likely in the largest and most populated island of São Miguel, moving from the coastal areas towards inland where the current protected areas are insufficient and inadequate to tackle species distribution shifts. There will be the need for a revision of the current protected areas in São Miguel to allow the sustainable conservation of most species, while in Terceira Island the current protected areas appear to be sufficient. Our study demonstrates the importance of these tools for informing long-term climate change adaptation planning for small islands.}, }
@article {pmid31194783, year = {2019}, author = {de Luis, M and Álvarez-Jiménez, J and Martínez Labarga, JM and Bartolomé, C}, title = {Four climate change scenarios for Gypsophila bermejoi G. López (Caryophyllaceae) to address whether bioclimatic and soil suitability will overlap in the future.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218160}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218160}, pmid = {31194783}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change has altered the global distribution of many species. Accordingly, we have assessed here the potential shift in the distribution of Gypsophila bermejoi G. López under distinct scenarios of future climate change, this being a species endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. For strict gypsophiles, climatic changes affecting their potential area of distribution could be critical if the new range is not overlapped with suitable soils. Thus, the narrow bioclimatic niche and the endemic nature of this plant could make this species particularly vulnerable to climate change. We used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method to study the potential distribution of this taxon under four different scenarios of climate change, pin-pointing relevant changes in the potential distribution of this plant and enabling possible future areas of refuge to be assessed. Such scenarios are defined according to four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [, which represent different trends in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As a result, we predict notable changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi, and the overlap between soil and bioclimatic suitability would be affected. We also used a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to model the bioclimatic niche of this species, comparing it with that of its parental taxa. The evolution of bioclimatic suitability was assessed at the current locations of G. bermejoi and as this plant is a strict gypsophile, we generated suitability maps for sites with gypsum soils. Ultimately, this study identifies relevant changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi under specific climatic scenarios, observing remarkable differences in the outcomes of the different climate change scenarios. Interestingly, in some scenarios the bioclimatic suitability of G. bermejoi will be enhanced at many locations and even in the worst scenario some possible refuge areas were identified. G. bermejoi behaves more like a hardy survivor than as early victim.}, }
@article {pmid31194596, year = {2019}, author = {Cartwright, E}, title = {The Medical Anthropology of Climate Change: Eco-Risks and the Body Environmental.}, journal = {Medical anthropology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-4}, doi = {10.1080/01459740.2019.1621866}, pmid = {31194596}, issn = {1545-5882}, abstract = {Anthropological research can provide the time depth needed for a rich understanding of the health effects of atmospheric and ocean warming, shifting weather patterns, and the breakdown of biological and social systems large and small. Medical anthropologists are poised to document the human costs of floods, fires, droughts and other catastrophic events, as well as the slowly shifting supplies of fresh water, clean air, and adequate food. Our anthropological eyes on the ground are needed for contextual, local, and critical understandings of how human lifestyles of the twenty-first century are creating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31193440, year = {2019}, author = {Hiscock, R and Asikainen, A and Tuomisto, J and Jantunen, M and Pärjälä, E and Sabel, CE}, title = {Corrigendum to &quot;City scale climate change policies: Do they matter for wellbeing?&quot; [Prev. Med. Rep. 6 (2017) 265-270].}, journal = {Preventive medicine reports}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {100842}, doi = {10.1016/j.pmedr.2019.100842}, pmid = {31193440}, issn = {2211-3355}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2017.03.019.].}, }
@article {pmid31192421, year = {2019}, author = {Hammarstrand, S and Fritzell, V}, title = {[Healthcare plays a key role in adapting to the health effects of climate change].}, journal = {Lakartidningen}, volume = {116}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {31192421}, issn = {1652-7518}, abstract = {Climate change will affect society in many areas, including healthcare.This article aims to explain the health aspects of climate change and how healthcare can play an important role. Rising temperatures affect health through direct effects such as increased heat (especially in tropical countries) and through indirect effects such as deteriorating air quality and changing panorama of infectious diseases. Particularly vulnerable to the effects are small children, elderly and those with severe chronic diseases. In the pursuit of a health care that can resist these effects, action plans based on simple measures that focus on vulnerable groups have been shown to greatly reduce the health impact. Healthcare also has an important role in the work on climate adaptation in Sweden by providing expertise in societal planning and preventive health work. Finally, knowledge among healthcare professionals and students about the health impact of climate change needs to be continuously updated.}, }
@article {pmid31189933, year = {2019}, author = {Lourenço-de-Moraes, R and Lansac-Toha, FM and Schwind, LTF and Arrieira, RL and Rosa, RR and Terribile, LC and Lemes, P and Fernando Rangel, T and Diniz-Filho, JAF and Bastos, RP and Bailly, D}, title = {Climate change will decrease the range size of snake species under negligible protection in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {8523}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-44732-z}, pmid = {31189933}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Reptiles are highly susceptible to climate change, responding negatively to thermal and rainfall alterations mainly in relation to their reproductive processes. Based on that, we evaluated the effects of climate change on climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of snakes in the Atlantic Forest hotspot, considering the responses of distinct reproductive groups (oviparous and viviparous). We assessed the species richness and turnover patterns affected by climate change and projected the threat status of each snake species at the end of the century. We also evaluated the effectiveness of the protected areas in safeguarding the species by estimating the mean percentage overlap between snake species distribution and protected areas (PAs) network and by assessing whether such areas will gain or lose species under climate change. Our results showed greater species richness in the eastern-central portion of the Atlantic Forest at present. In general, we evidenced a drastic range contraction of the snake species under climate change. Temporal turnover tends to be high in the western and north-eastern edges of the biome, particularly for oviparous species. Our predictions indicate that 73.6% of oviparous species and 67.6% of viviparous species could lose at least half of their original range by 2080. We also found that existing protected areas of the Atlantic Forest Hotspot have a very limited capacity to safeguard snakes at the current time, maintaining the precarious protection in the future, with the majority of them predicted to lose species at the end of this century. Although oviparous and viviparous snakes have been designated to be dramatically impacted, our study suggests a greater fragility of the former in the face of climate change. We advocated that the creation of new protected areas and/or the redesign of the existing network to harbour regions that maximize the snake species occupancy in the face of future warming scenarios are crucial measures for the conservation of this group.}, }
@article {pmid31189777, year = {2019}, author = {Horie, T}, title = {Global warming and rice production in Asia: Modeling, impact prediction and adaptation.}, journal = {Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and biological sciences}, volume = {95}, number = {6}, pages = {211-245}, doi = {10.2183/pjab.95.016}, pmid = {31189777}, issn = {1349-2896}, abstract = {Since the projection of global warming emerged in 1980s with the potential of laying enormous impacts on agriculture and food security of the world, we have conducted experimental and modeling studies for clarifying its effects on rice production in Asia and for developing adaptive rice production technologies. On the basis of measurement of rice responses to climate and carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), the dynamic process model named SIMRIW was developed to predict global warming effects on irrigated rice. The model predicted differential regional effects of the projected global warming by doubling [CO2] on the rice yield over Asia, and indicated that high tolerance to heat-induced spikelet sterility and high yield potential under elevated [CO2] are the two important characteristics required for rice genotypes adaptive to global warming environment. Further, genetic traits associated with these characteristics and their genetic resources for breeding adaptive genotypes were identified from diverse rice germplasms. This article reviews our initiative studies in the light of the recent studies, and points out further research that is needed for better understanding and overcoming of this unprecedentedly large problem.}, }
@article {pmid31188822, year = {2019}, author = {Nogeire-McRae, T and Lawler, JJ and Schumaker, NH and Cypher, BL and Phillips, SE}, title = {Land use change and rodenticide exposure trump climate change as the biggest stressors to San Joaquin kit fox.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0214297}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0214297}, pmid = {31188822}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Animal and plant species often face multiple threats simultaneously. We explored the relative impact of three major threats on populations of the endangered San Joaquin kit fox. This species was once widely distributed across the southern San Joaquin Valley, California, USA, but agriculture and urban development have replaced much of its natural habitat. We modeled impacts of climate change, land-use change, and rodenticide exposure on kit fox populations using a spatially explicit, individual-based population model from 2000 to 2050 for the Central Valley, California. Our study indicates that land-use change will likely have the largest impact on kit fox populations. Land development has the potential to decrease populations by approximately 15% under a compact growth scenario in which projected population increases are accommodated within existing urban areas, and 17% under a business-as-usual scenario in which future population growth increases the developed area around urban centers. Plausible scenarios for exposure to pesticides suggest a reduction in kit fox populations by approximately 13%. By contrast, climate change has the potential to ameliorate some of these impacts. Climate-change induced vegetation shifts have the potential to increase total available kit fox habitat and could drive population increases of up to 7%. These vegetation shifts could also reduce movement barriers and create opportunities for hybridization between the endangered San Joaquin kit fox and the more widely distributed desert kit fox, found in the Mojave Desert. In contrast to these beneficial impacts, increasing climate extremes raise the probability of the kit fox population dropping below critical levels. Taken together, these results paint a complex picture of how an at-risk species is likely to respond to multiple threats.}, }
@article {pmid31186360, year = {2019}, author = {Lotze, HK and Tittensor, DP and Bryndum-Buchholz, A and Eddy, TD and Cheung, WWL and Galbraith, ED and Barange, M and Barrier, N and Bianchi, D and Blanchard, JL and Bopp, L and Büchner, M and Bulman, CM and Carozza, DA and Christensen, V and Coll, M and Dunne, JP and Fulton, EA and Jennings, S and Jones, MC and Mackinson, S and Maury, O and Niiranen, S and Oliveros-Ramos, R and Roy, T and Fernandes, JA and Schewe, J and Shin, YJ and Silva, TAM and Steenbeek, J and Stock, CA and Verley, P and Volkholz, J and Walker, ND and Worm, B}, title = {Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1900194116}, pmid = {31186360}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.}, }
@article {pmid31182713, year = {2019}, author = {Kiat, Y and Vortman, Y and Sapir, N}, title = {Feather moult and bird appearance are correlated with global warming over the last 200 years.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {2540}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-10452-1}, pmid = {31182713}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Global warming alters various avian phenological processes, including advanced reproduction and migration schedules. In birds, individual appearance is largely determined by plumage, influencing, for example, bird attractiveness, social status and camouflage. Juveniles of most passerine species replace their nest-grown plumage during the first months of life, a process that is called post-juvenile feather moult. Using data from ten natural history collections, we show that the extent of the post-juvenile moult has increased significantly over the last 212 years (1805-2016), a trend that is positively correlated with the temperature of the environment. Therefore, it seems that birds replaced more feathers under warmer conditions, causing juveniles to appear more similar to adult birds. Moreover, in several species, we describe a male-female switch in the extent of moult, with females currently replacing more feathers than males compared to the past. These results demonstrate different biological responses to climate warming by different phenotypes.}, }
@article {pmid31182543, year = {2019}, author = {Emerick, K and Ronald, PC}, title = {Sub1 Rice: Engineering Rice for Climate Change.}, journal = {Cold Spring Harbor perspectives in biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1101/cshperspect.a034637}, pmid = {31182543}, issn = {1943-0264}, abstract = {By the year 2100, the number of people on Earth is expected to increase by ∼50%, placing increasing demands on food production in a time when a changing climate is predicted to compromise crop yields. Feeding this future world requires scientifically informed innovations in agriculture. Here, we describe how a rice gene conferring tolerance to prolonged submergence has helped farmers in South and Southeast Asia mitigate rice crop failure during floods. We discuss how planting of this new variety benefited socially disadvantaged groups. This example indicates that investment in agricultural improvement can protect farmers from risks associated with a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid31179548, year = {2019}, author = {Celedon, JM and Bohlmann, J}, title = {Oleoresin defenses in conifers: chemical diversity, terpene synthases, limitations of oleoresin defense under climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.15984}, pmid = {31179548}, issn = {1469-8137}, abstract = {Conifers have evolved complex oleoresin terpene defenses against herbivores and pathogens. In co-evolved bark beetles, conifer terpenes also serve chemo-ecological functions as pheromone precursors, chemical barcodes for host identification, or nutrients for insect-associated microbiomes. We highlight the genomic, molecular and biochemical underpinnings of the large chemical space of conifer oleoresin terpenes and volatiles. Conifer terpenes are predominantly the products of the conifer terpene synthase (TPS) gene family. Terpene diversity is increased by cytochromes P450 of the CYP720B class. Many conifer TPS are multi-product enzymes. Multi-substrate CYP720B enzymes catalyze multi-step oxidations. We summarize known terpenoid gene functions in various different conifer species with reference to the annotated terpenoid gene space in a spruce genome. Overall, biosynthesis of terpene diversity in conifers is achieved through a system of biochemical radiation and metabolic grids. Expression of TPS and CYP720B genes can be specific to individual cell-types of constitutive or traumatic resin duct systems. Induced terpenoid transcriptomes in resin duct cells lead to dynamic changes of terpene composition and quantity to fend off herbivores and pathogens. While terpenoid defenses have contributed much to the evolutionary success of conifers, under new conditions of climate change, these defenses may become inconsequential against range-expanding forest pests. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31179195, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, M and Liu, Z and van Dijk, MP}, title = {Measuring urban vulnerability to climate change using an integrated approach, assessing climate risks in Beijing.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7018}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.7018}, pmid = {31179195}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {This study is responding to the recommendation made by IPCC's fifth Assessment Report on establishing a standard for measuring and reporting climate risk and vulnerability. It exemplifies the assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change by an integrated approach. The results indicate that Beijing is highly exposed to multiple climate threats in the context of global climate change, specifically urban heat waves, urban drainage floods and drought. Vulnerabilities to the climatic threats of heat waves, drainage floods and droughts have increased by 5%-15% during the period of 2008-2016 in Beijing. High vulnerabilities to both heat waves and drainage floods have been observed in the urban downtown area and high vulnerability to droughts have been observed in the outskirts. This vulnerability assessment, which addressed climatic threats, provides a holistic understanding of the susceptibility to climate change that could facilitate adaptation to climate change in the future. The developments of threats like flooding, heat waves and droughts are analyzed separately for 16 districts and an integrated vulnerability index for all of Beijing is provided as well.}, }
@article {pmid31176879, year = {2019}, author = {Rotundo, JL and Tang, T and Messina, CD}, title = {Response of maize photosynthesis to high temperature: Implications for modeling the impact of global warming.}, journal = {Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB}, volume = {141}, number = {}, pages = {202-205}, doi = {10.1016/j.plaphy.2019.05.035}, pmid = {31176879}, issn = {1873-2690}, abstract = {Negative impacts of increased temperature on maize yield are anticipated using simulation models. However, some temperature functions are parameterized with partial information. There is limited information on photosynthesis response to high temperature in modern maize hybrids. Improved photosynthesis-temperature functions are key for realistic yield simulations. Our experiment was aimed at building a functional relationship between photosynthesis and air temperature exploring temperature ranges relevant for global warming simulations. Maize hybrids from cold, temperate, and subtropical regions were included in the study to assess genetic adaptation. Results showed a trilinear response to temperature with an optimum of 40 °C. No genetic adaptation was observed among the diverse set of hybrids evaluated. Results contrast with common temperature-limiting functions indicating a decline in carbon assimilation above 30-33 °C. Our results suggest possible overestimations of negative impacts of global warming on maize yield due to the use of inadequate response functions relating carbon assimilation to temperature.}, }
@article {pmid31176768, year = {2019}, author = {Nadermann, N and Seward, RK and Volkoff, H}, title = {Effects of potential climate change -induced environmental modifications on food intake and the expression of appetite regulators in goldfish.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.06.001}, pmid = {31176768}, issn = {1531-4332}, abstract = {Climate changes due to global warming result in part from the release of gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane into the atmosphere and results in warming and acidification of water bodies, and changes precipitation and wind patterns, which might in turn affect water currents, turbulence and turbidity. These changes might affect feeding and its endocrine control. Feeding is regulated by central and peripheral hormones that either stimulate (e.g. orexin, ghrelin) or inhibit (e.g. irisin, cocaine and amphetamine regulated transcript - CART, cholecystokinin - CCK and peptide YY -PYY) food intake. In this study we examined the effects of four climate change-related environmental factors (i.e. temperature, pH, turbulence and turbidity) on food intake and the hypothalamic and intestinal expressions of appetite regulators in fish, using goldfish as a model. High temperatures increased food intake and the brain expression of orexin, and decrease brain CART 1 and intestinal CCK, PYY and ghrelin. Low pHs decreased feeding and increased the expressions of CART1 and CART2 in the hypothalamus and CCK and PYY in the intestine. Turbulence (waves) induced an increase in food intake and a decrease in mRNA expression levels of both CART1 and CART2 in the hypothalamus and both CCK and PYY in the intestine. Turbidity (low visibility) did not affect food intake but increased locomotion and the time taken to reach satiation, while increasing brain orexin and intestinal PYY expression levels and lowering CART1 hypothalamic expression. The results of this study suggest that environmental stress affects feeding physiology of goldfish and bring new insights on how fish might respond to climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid31176230, year = {2019}, author = {Burley, H and Beaumont, LJ and Ossola, A and Baumgartner, JB and Gallagher, R and Laffan, S and Esperon-Rodriguez, M and Manea, A and Leishman, MR}, title = {Substantial declines in urban tree habitat predicted under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {685}, number = {}, pages = {451-462}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.287}, pmid = {31176230}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Globally, local governments are increasing investment in urban greening projects. However, there is little consideration of whether the species being planted will be resilient to climate change. We assessed the distribution of climatically suitable habitat, now and in the future, for 176 tree species native to Australia, commonly planted across Australia's Significant Urban Areas (SUAs) and currently grown by commercial nurseries. Species' occurrence records were obtained from inventories and herbaria, globally and across Australia, and combined with baseline climate data (WorldClim, 1960-1990) and six climate scenarios for 2030 and 2070 using climatic suitability models (CSMs). CSMs for each species were calibrated and projected onto baseline and future scenarios. We calculated changes in the size of climatically suitable habitat for each species across each SUA, and identified urban areas that are likely to have suitable climate for either fewer or more of our study species under future climate. By 2070, climatically suitable habitat in SUAs is predicted to decline for 73% of species assessed. For 18% of these species, climatically suitable area is predicted to be more than halved, relative to their baseline extent. Generally, for urban areas in cooler regions, climatically suitable habitat is predicted to increase. By contrast, for urban areas in warmer regions, a greater proportion of tree species may lose climatically suitable habitat. Our results highlight changing patterns of urban climatic space for commonly planted species, suggesting that local governments and the horticultural industry should take a proactive approach to identify new climate-ready species for urban plantings.}, }
@article {pmid31175008, year = {2019}, author = {Robert, MA and Christofferson, RC and Weber, PD and Wearing, HJ}, title = {Temperature impacts on dengue emergence in the United States: Investigating the role of seasonality and climate change.}, journal = {Epidemics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {100344}, doi = {10.1016/j.epidem.2019.05.003}, pmid = {31175008}, issn = {1878-0067}, abstract = {Tropical mosquito-borne viruses have been expanding into more temperate regions in recent decades. This is partly due to the coupled effects of temperature on mosquito life history traits and viral infection dynamics and warming surface temperatures, resulting in more suitable conditions for vectors and virus transmission. In this study, we use a deterministic ordinary differential equations model to investigate how seasonal and diurnal temperature fluctuations affect the potential for dengue transmission in six U.S. cities. We specifically consider temperature-dependent mosquito larval development, adult mosquito mortality, and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus. We show that the ability of introductions to lead to outbreaks depends upon the relationship between a city's temperature profile and the time of year at which the initial case is introduced. We also investigate how the potential for outbreaks changes with predicted future increases in mean temperatures due to climate change. We find that climate change will likely lead to increases in suitability for dengue transmission and will increase the periods of the year in which introductions may lead to outbreaks, particularly in cities that typically have mild winters and warm summers, such as New Orleans, Louisiana, and El Paso, Texas. We discuss our results in the context of temperature heterogeneity within and across cities and how these differences may impact the potential for dengue emergence given present day and predicted future temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid31174110, year = {2019}, author = {Ishida, K and Ohara, N and Ercan, A and Jang, S and Trinh, T and Kavvas, ML and Carr, K and Anderson, ML}, title = {Impacts of climate change on snow accumulation and melting processes over mountainous regions in Northern California during the 21st century.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {685}, number = {}, pages = {104-115}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.255}, pmid = {31174110}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {A point-location-based analysis of future climate change impacts on snow accumulation and melting processes was conducted over three study watersheds in Northern California during a 90-year future period by means of snow regime projections. The snow regime projections were obtained by means of a physically-based snow model with dynamically downscaled future climate projections. Then, atmospheric and snow-related variables, and their interrelations during the 21st century were investigated to reveal future climate change impacts on snow accumulation and melting processes. The analysis shows large reductions in snow water equivalent (SWE), snowfall to precipitation (S/P) ratio, and snowmelt through the 21st century. Timing of the peak of the SWE and snowmelt will also change in the future. Meanwhile, the analysis in this study shows that air temperature rise will affect, but will not dominate the future change in snowmelt over the study watersheds. This result implies the importance of considering atmospheric variables other than air temperature, such as precipitation, shortwave radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed even if these variables will not clearly change during the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid31173048, year = {2019}, author = {De Paula Baer, A and Sestili, C and Cocchiara, RA and Barbato, D and Del Cimmuto, A and La Torre, G}, title = {Perception of Climate Change: validation of a questionnaire in Italy.}, journal = {La Clinica terapeutica}, volume = {170}, number = {3}, pages = {e184-e191}, doi = {10.7417/CT.2019.2131}, pmid = {31173048}, issn = {1972-6007}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate Change (CC) is a worldwide concern with important consequences for Public Health. A more sustainable and responsible way of living is necessary in order to reduce CC consequences, and adequation to this is directly related to risk perception and knowledge about the phenomenon. The aim of this study was to validate a questionnaire to measure the knowledge of Italians on CC and its consequences.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: The questionnaire was administered online to high school students, their parents and teachers that were participating to a meeting at Sapienza University. The questionnaire contained a sociodemographic section and 19 questions on causes and consequences of CC and ways to fight it. The statistical analysis was performed with Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 25.<br><br>RESULTS: Sixty-four individuals answered the online questionnaire. The analysis of internal consistency was performed by 12 dichotomous variables that measured the knowledge level on CC. The analysis showed a standardized Cronbach's alpha equal to 0.39, corresponding to a low reliability. When females were excluded, the alpha value rose to 0.497, and ascended to the reliable value of 0.639 when refining the selection of the included questions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The Cronbach's alpha value found showed a low reliability but achieves acceptable levels when considering only males and excluding some of the initial questions. Future studies should be performed in order to highlight the reliability of this tool to assess the knowledge about CC among the population.}, }
@article {pmid31171511, year = {2019}, author = {Dyer, O}, title = {Climate change: swift action is needed to prevent millions of premature deaths, report warns.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {365}, number = {}, pages = {l4104}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l4104}, pmid = {31171511}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid31170149, year = {2019}, author = {Bury, TM and Bauch, CT and Anand, M}, title = {Charting pathways to climate change mitigation in a coupled socio-climate model.}, journal = {PLoS computational biology}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {e1007000}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007000}, pmid = {31170149}, issn = {1553-7358}, abstract = {Geophysical models of climate change are becoming increasingly sophisticated, yet less effort is devoted to modelling the human systems causing climate change and how the two systems are coupled. Here, we develop a simple socio-climate model by coupling an Earth system model to a social dynamics model. We treat social processes endogenously-emerging from rules governing how individuals learn socially and how social norms develop-as well as being influenced by climate change and mitigation costs. Our goal is to gain qualitative insights into scenarios of potential socio-climate dynamics and to illustrate how such models can generate new research questions. We find that the social learning rate is strongly influential, to the point that variation of its value within empirically plausible ranges changes the peak global temperature anomaly by more than 1°C. Conversely, social norms reinforce majority behaviour and therefore may not provide help when we most need it because they suppress the early spread of mitigative behaviour. Finally, exploring the model's parameter space for mitigation cost and social learning suggests optimal intervention pathways for climate change mitigation. We find that prioritising an increase in social learning as a first step, followed by a reduction in mitigation costs provides the most efficient route to a reduced peak temperature anomaly. We conclude that socio-climate models should be included in the ensemble of models used to project climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31168619, year = {2019}, author = {DuRant, SE and Willson, JD and Carroll, RB}, title = {Parental effects and climate change: Will avian incubation behavior shield embryos from increasing environmental temperatures?.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icz083}, pmid = {31168619}, issn = {1557-7023}, abstract = {A major driver of wildlife responses to climate change will include non-genomic effects, like those mediated through parental behavior and physiology (i.e., parental effects). Parental effects can influence lifetime reproductive success and survival, and thus population-level processes. However, the extent to which parental effects will contribute to population persistence or declines in response to climate change is not well understood. These effects may be substantial for species that exhibit extensive parental care behaviors like birds. Environmental temperature is important in shaping avian incubation behavior, both of which interact to determine the thermal conditions embryos are exposed to during development, and subsequently avian phenotypes and secondary sex ratios. In this paper, we argue that incubation behavior may be an important mediator of avian responses to climate change, we compare incubation strategies of two species adapted to different thermal environments nesting in extreme heat, and we present a simple model that estimates changes in egg temperature based on these incubation patterns and predicted increases in maximum daily air temperature. We demonstrate that the predicted increase in air temperature by 2100 in the central United States will increase temperatures eggs experience during afternoon off-bouts, and the proportion of nests exposed to lethal temperatures. To better understand how species and local adaptations and behavioral-plasticity of incubation behavior will contribute to population responses to climate change, comparisons are needed across more avian populations, species, and thermal landscapes.}, }
@article {pmid31168110, year = {2019}, author = {Moon, IJ and Kim, SH and Chan, JCL}, title = {Climate change and tropical cyclone trend.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {570}, number = {7759}, pages = {E3-E5}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1222-3}, pmid = {31168110}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31165645, year = {2019}, author = {Adedze, M and Osei-Yeboah, R}, title = {Underuse of modern contraception in sub-Saharan Africa: are there implications for sustainable development and climate change? A review of the literature.}, journal = {The European journal of contraception &amp; reproductive health care : the official journal of the European Society of Contraception}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-5}, doi = {10.1080/13625187.2019.1618448}, pmid = {31165645}, issn = {1473-0782}, abstract = {Objectives: The aim of this study was to review the recent literature regarding the underuse of modern contraception in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and examine the link with poverty, conflict, sustainable development and climate change. Methods: Data were examined in the PubMed, Hindawi and Science Direct databases. Selected studies were primary research published in the last 10 years relating to modern contraceptive use in SSA. Results: Six common themes contributing to modern contraceptive underuse in SSA emerged: conflicts and security, religious and cultural restrictions, partner consent and support, misconceptions and lack of education, health system barriers and the socioeconomic benefits of having a larger family. Conclusions: The identified barriers to modern contraceptive use in SSA are preventable. It is imperative to ensure that adequate, sustainable measures are implemented to increase the uptake of modern contraception in SSA.}, }
@article {pmid31162076, year = {2019}, author = {Watts, N and Gong, P and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Costello, A and Robinson, E}, title = {Health and climate change - Authors' reply.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10187}, pages = {2197-2198}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31134-1}, pmid = {31162076}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid31162074, year = {2019}, author = {Florin, TH and Allen, DW}, title = {Health and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10187}, pages = {2196-2197}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30303-4}, pmid = {31162074}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid31162068, year = {2019}, author = {Gupta, V and Mokdad, A and Bollyky, T and Glassman, A and Daschle, TA}, title = {Leveraging climate change to improve global tobacco control.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10187}, pages = {2182-2183}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30705-6}, pmid = {31162068}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid31160627, year = {2019}, author = {Gallagher, RV and Allen, S and Wright, IJ}, title = {Safety margins and adaptive capacity of vegetation to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {8241}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-44483-x}, pmid = {31160627}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {DE170100208//Department of Education and Training | Australian Research Council (ARC)/ ; }, abstract = {Vegetation is composed of many individual species whose climatic tolerances can be integrated into spatial analyses of climate change risk. Here, we quantify climate change risk to vegetation at a continental scale by calculating the safety margins for warming and drying (i.e., tolerance to projected change in temperature and precipitation respectively) across plants sharing 100 km × 100 km grid cells (locations). These safety margins measure how much warmer, or drier, a location could become before its 'typical' species exceeds its observed climatic limit. We also analyse the potential adaptive capacity of vegetation to temperature and precipitation change (i.e., likelihood of in situ persistence) using median precipitation and temperature breadth across all species in each location. 47% of vegetation across Australia is potentially at risk from increases in mean annual temperature (MAT) by 2070, with tropical regions most vulnerable. Vegetation at high risk from climate change often also exhibited low adaptive capacity. By contrast, 2% of the continent is at risk from reductions in annual precipitation by 2070. Risk from precipitation change was isolated to the southwest of Western Australia where both the safety margin for drier conditions in the typical species is low, and substantial reductions in MAP are projected.}, }
@article {pmid31160586, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, X and Xiao, J and Li, X and Cheng, G and Ma, M and Zhu, G and Altaf Arain, M and Andrew Black, T and Jassal, RS}, title = {No trends in spring and autumn phenology during the global warming hiatus.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {2389}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-10235-8}, pmid = {31160586}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {41771466//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 91425303//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; NNX14AJ18G//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; NNX16AG61G//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; EF-1638688//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {Phenology plays a fundamental role in regulating photosynthesis, evapotranspiration, and surface energy fluxes and is sensitive to climate change. The global mean surface air temperature data indicate a global warming hiatus between 1998 and 2012, while its impacts on global phenology remains unclear. Here we use long-term satellite and FLUXNET records to examine phenology trends in the northern hemisphere before and during the warming hiatus. Our results based on the satellite record show that the phenology change rate slowed down during the warming hiatus. The analysis of the long-term FLUXNET measurements, mainly within the warming hiatus, shows that there were no widespread advancing (or delaying) trends in spring (or autumn) phenology. The lack of widespread phenology trends partly led to the lack of widespread trends in spring and autumn carbon fluxes. Our findings have significant implications for understanding the responses of phenology to climate change and the climate-carbon feedbacks.}, }
@article {pmid31160333, year = {2019}, author = {Wight, J and Middleton, J}, title = {Climate change: the greatest public health threat of the century.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {365}, number = {}, pages = {l2371}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l2371}, pmid = {31160333}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid31160324, year = {2019}, author = {Shin, GY}, title = {Climate change: overpopulation is the elephant in the room.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {365}, number = {}, pages = {l2373}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l2373}, pmid = {31160324}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid31160114, year = {2019}, author = {Coselli, JS}, title = {Commentary: Despite global warming, frozen has its place.}, journal = {The Journal of thoracic and cardiovascular surgery}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtcvs.2019.04.049}, pmid = {31160114}, issn = {1097-685X}, }
@article {pmid31158686, year = {2019}, author = {Dittrich, R and Butler, A and Ball, T and Wreford, A and Moran, D}, title = {Making real options analysis more accessible for climate change adaptation. An application to afforestation as a flood management measure in the Scottish Borders.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {245}, number = {}, pages = {338-347}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.05.077}, pmid = {31158686}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change uncertainty makes decisions for adaptation investments challenging, in particular when long time horizons and large irreversible upfront costs are involved. Often the costs will be immediate and clear, but the benefits may be uncertain and only occur in the distant future. Robust decision-making methods such as real options analysis (ROA) handle uncertainty better and are therefore useful to guide decision-making for climate change adaptation. ROA allows for learning about climate change by developing flexible strategies that can be adjusted over time. Practical examples of ROA to climate change adaptation are still relatively limited and tend to be complex. We propose an application that makes ROA more accessible to policy-makers by using the user-friendly and freely available UK climate data of the UKCP09 weather generator, which provides projections of future rainfall, deriving transition probabilities for the ROA in a straightforward way and demonstrating how the analysis can be implemented in spreadsheet format using backward induction. The application is to afforestation as a natural flood management measure (NFM) in a rural catchment in Scotland. The applicability of ROA to broadleaf afforestation as a NFM has not been previously investigated. Different ROA strategies are presented based on varying the damage cost from flooding, fixed cost and the discount rate. The results illustrate how learning can lower the overall investment cost of climate change adaptation but also that the cost structure of afforestation does not lend itself very well to ROA.}, }
@article {pmid31157907, year = {2019}, author = {Neal-Boylan, L and Breakey, S and Nicholas, PK}, title = {Integrating Climate Change Topics Into Nursing Curricula.}, journal = {The Journal of nursing education}, volume = {58}, number = {6}, pages = {364-368}, doi = {10.3928/01484834-20190521-09}, pmid = {31157907}, issn = {1938-2421}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Health professionals have a key role in addressing the health impacts of climate change at several levels: direct patient care, client and community education, health professions education, and through advocacy and health policy development.<br><br>METHOD: Recognizing that nurses are the first line in health education, nursing faculty at the MGH Institute of Health Professions developed the first nurse-led Center for Climate Change, Climate Justice and Health (CCCCJH).<br><br>RESULTS: A steering committee of nurse climate change scholars and interested faculty developed a mission, vision, core values, and a strategic plan for the CCCCJH and are working on integrating climate change topics into nursing curricula at all levels.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Nurses are in the ideal position to lead the way to increase awareness among health professionals and students about the health impacts of climate change. Curricular integration of climate change topics at all levels will prepare our students to meet the needs and challenges of the future. [J Nurs Educ. 2019;58(6):364-368.].}, }
@article {pmid31156493, year = {2019}, author = {Lehman, B and Thompson, J and Davis, S and Carlson, JM}, title = {Affective Images of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {960}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00960}, pmid = {31156493}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate change is not only a scientific phenomenon, but also a cultural one. Individuals' opinions on climate change are often based on emotion rather than on scientific evidence. Therefore, research into the emotional characteristics of the imagery that the non-expert public find relevant to climate change is important in order to build a database of effective climate change imagery, which can then be used by scientists, policymakers, and practitioners in mobilizing climate adaptation and resilience efforts. To this end, we collected ratings of relevance to climate change as well as emotional arousal and valence on 320 images to assess the relationship between relevance to climate change and the emotional qualities of the image. In addition, participants' environmental beliefs were measured, to investigate the relationship between beliefs and image ratings. The results suggest that images rated highly relevant to climate change are higher in negative emotional valence and emotional arousal. Overall, images were rated as being more relevant to climate change by participants with higher pro-environmental disposition. Critically, we have compiled the mean relevance, valence, and arousal ratings of each of these 320 images into a database that is posted online and freely available (https://affectiveclimateimages.weebly.com; https://www.nmu.edu/affectiveclimateimages) for use in future research on climate change visuals.}, }
@article {pmid31155789, year = {2019}, author = {Isaacs, D}, title = {Climate change: Whose responsibility?.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {55}, number = {6}, pages = {615-616}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.14475}, pmid = {31155789}, issn = {1440-1754}, }
@article {pmid31153070, year = {2019}, author = {Gu, L and Chen, J and Xu, CY and Kim, JS and Chen, H and Xia, J and Zhang, L}, title = {The contribution of internal climate variability to climate change impacts on droughts.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {684}, number = {}, pages = {229-246}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.345}, pmid = {31153070}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The assessment of climate change impacts is usually done by calculating the change in drought conditions between future and historical periods by using multiple climate model simulations. However, this approach usually focuses on anthropogenic climate changes (ACCs) while ignoring the internal climate variability (ICV) caused by the chaotic nature of the climate system. Recent studies have shown that ICV plays an important role in the projected future climate change. To evaluate that role, this study quantifies the contribution of ICV to climate change impacts on regional droughts by using the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the fraction of standard deviation (FOSD) as metrics for China. The internal climate variability or noise (i.e. ICV) is estimated as the inter-member variability of two climate models' large-member ensembles; the signal (i.e. ACC) and the climate model uncertainty (or inter-model uncertainty, IMU) are estimated as the ensemble mean and inter-model variability of 29 global climate models, respectively. The drought conditions are characterized by drought frequency, duration and severity, which are quantified by using the theory of run based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results show that deteriorated drought conditions induced by ACCs are projected to occur over China. From the perspective of the SNR, the ICV impacts are less significant compared to the ACC impacts for drought metrics. Remarkable spatial variations of SNRs for future drought metrics are found, with values varying from 0.001 to exceeding 10. In terms of the FOSD, ICV contributions relative to the IMU are large, as FOSDs are >1 for around 22% grids. These results imply the significance of taking into account the impacts of ICV in drought assessment, any study ignores the influence of ICV may be biased.}, }
@article {pmid31152499, year = {2019}, author = {Asch, RG and Stock, CA and Sarmiento, JL}, title = {Climate change impacts on mismatches between phytoplankton blooms and fish spawning phenology.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14650}, pmid = {31152499}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Alfred P. Sloan Foundation/ ; //Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University/ ; //Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program/ ; }, abstract = {Substantial interannual variability in marine fish recruitment (i.e., the number of young fish entering a fishery each year) has been hypothesized to be related to whether the timing of fish spawning matches that of seasonal plankton blooms. Environmental processes that control the phenology of blooms, such as stratification, may differ from those that influence fish spawning, such as temperature-linked reproductive maturation. These different controlling mechanisms could cause the timing of these events to diverge under climate change with negative consequences for fisheries. We use an earth system model to examine the impact of a high-emissions, climate-warming scenario (RCP8.5) on the future spawning time of two classes of temperate, epipelagic fishes: &quot;geographic spawners&quot; whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed geographic features (e.g., rivers, estuaries, reefs) and &quot;environmental spawners&quot; whose spawning grounds move responding to variations in environmental properties, such as temperature. By the century's end, our results indicate that projections of increased stratification cause spring and summer phytoplankton blooms to start 16 days earlier on average (±0.05 days SE) at latitudes >40°N. The temperature-linked phenology of geographic spawners changes at a rate twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing these fishes to spawn before the bloom starts across >85% of this region. &quot;Extreme events,&quot; defined here as seasonal mismatches >30 days that could lead to fish recruitment failure, increase 10-fold for geographic spawners in many areas under the RCP8.5 scenario. Mismatches between environmental spawners and phytoplankton were smaller and less widespread, although sizable mismatches still emerged in some regions. This indicates that range shifts undertaken by environmental spawners may increase the resiliency of fishes to climate change impacts associated with phenological mismatches, potentially buffering against declines in larval fish survival, recruitment, and fisheries. Our model results are supported by empirical evidence from ecosystems with multidecadal observations of both fish and phytoplankton phenology.}, }
@article {pmid31152424, year = {2019}, author = {Fei, L and Meijun, Z and Min, H}, title = {Climate change in different geographical units and its impact on land production potential: a case study of Shaanxi Province, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-05503-5}, pmid = {31152424}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2018JQ4024//Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China/ ; 41701094//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Land production potential (LPP) was the maximum grain yield in one year that can be produced by land under the limitations of climate conditions and in the absence of pests and diseases and other factors. Whether climate change was increasing or reducing the LPP in a given region was uncertain. Therefore, Shaanxi Province was selected to analyze the regional differences in climate change and its effects on LPP change and to identify the main climatic factor restricting LPP in different regions by combining Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) model with the Geodetector model. Results showed that the temperature in Shaanxi Province showed an upward trend in 2000-2015; the rise in temperature to the north of Qinling Mountain (QM) was less than that to the south of QM. However, rising temperature had a yield-improving effect to the north of QM and a yield-decreasing effect to the south of QM. There was a precipitation increase in Arid Sandy (AS) area and Loess Plateau (LP), and the precipitation reduced in all other geographical units. The increase in LPP of Shaanxi mostly was caused by increasing precipitation. However, precipitation was declined and reduced LPP to the south of QM; that is, precipitation decline was the dominated climatic factor for LPP decrease in QM, Hanjiang Basin (HB), and Daba Mountain (DM). To the north of QM, LPP in AS, LP, and Guanzhong Plain (GP) both dramatically increased, mainly improved by rising temperature, increasing precipitation, and rising temperature, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid31150427, year = {2019}, author = {Ray, DK and West, PC and Clark, M and Gerber, JS and Prishchepov, AV and Chatterjee, S}, title = {Climate change has likely already affected global food production.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0217148}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0217148}, pmid = {31150427}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Crop yields are projected to decrease under future climate conditions, and recent research suggests that yields have already been impacted. However, current impacts on a diversity of crops subnationally and implications for food security remains unclear. Here, we constructed linear regression relationships using weather and reported crop data to assess the potential impact of observed climate change on the yields of the top ten global crops-barley, cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane and wheat at ~20,000 political units. We find that the impact of global climate change on yields of different crops from climate trends ranged from -13.4% (oil palm) to 3.5% (soybean). Our results show that impacts are mostly negative in Europe, Southern Africa and Australia but generally positive in Latin America. Impacts in Asia and Northern and Central America are mixed. This has likely led to ~1% average reduction (-3.5 X 1013 kcal/year) in consumable food calories in these ten crops. In nearly half of food insecure countries, estimated caloric availability decreased. Our results suggest that climate change has already affected global food production.}, }
@article {pmid31148381, year = {2019}, author = {Zou, Y and Ge, X and Guo, S and Zhou, Y and Wang, T and Zong, S}, title = {Impacts of climate change and host plant availability on the global distribution of Brontispa longissima (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae).}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.5503}, pmid = {31148381}, issn = {1526-4998}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The coconut hispine beetle Brontispa longissima Gestro (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) is one of the most serious pests of the coconut palm, Cocos nucifera L. (Arecales: Arecaceae) and other palms. The invasion of B. longissima causes major economic and ecological losses worldwide. In this study, the impacts of climate change on the risk of spread were evaluated. CLIMEX was used to project its global potential distribution based on historical climate data (1987-2016) and simulated future climate data (2071-2100).<br><br>RESULTS: The distribution of B. longissima included each continent under historical and future climate conditions. However, climate suitability was predicted to decrease in most tropical and subtropical regions under a climate change scenario. Temperature was a more important determinant of the climatic suitability of the pest than relative humidity or precipitation. The availability of host plants (Arecaceae) only had a slight impact on climate suitability in some regions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The projected potential distribution of B. longissima will help to determine the impacts of climate change and will provide supportive information for the development of management strategies to reduce future economic and ecological losses. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31148300, year = {2019}, author = {Amundrud, SL and Srivastava, DS}, title = {Disentangling how climate change can affect an aquatic food web by combining multiple experimental approaches.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14717}, pmid = {31148300}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Predicting the biological effects of climate change presents major challenges due to the interplay of potential biotic and abiotic mechanisms. Climate change can create unexpected outcomes by altering species interactions, and uncertainty over the ability of species to develop in situ tolerance or track environmental change further hampers meaningful predictions. As multiple climatic variables shift in concert, their potential interactions further complicate ecosystem responses. Despite awareness of these complexities, we still lack controlled experiments that manipulate multiple climatic stressors, species interactions, and prior exposure of species to future climatic conditions. Particularly studies that address how changes in water availability interact with other climatic stressors to affect aquatic ecosystems are still rare. Using aquatic insect communities of Neotropical tank bromeliads, we combined controlled manipulations of drought length and species interactions with a space-for-time transplant (lower elevations represent future climate) and a common garden approach. Manipulating drought length and experiment elevation revealed that adverse effects of drought were amplified at the warmer location, highlighting the potential of climatic stressors to synergistically affect communities. Manipulating the presence of omnivorous tipulid larvae showed that negative interactions from tipulids, presumably from predation, arose under drought, and were stronger at the warmer location, stressing the importance of species interactions in mediating community responses to climate change. The common garden treatments revealed that prior community exposure to potential future climatic conditions did not affect the outcome. In this powerful experiment, we demonstrated how complexities arise from the interplay of biotic and abiotic mechanisms of climate change. We stress that single species can steer ecological outcomes, and suggest that focusing on such disproportionately influential species may improve attempts at making meaningful predictions of climate change impacts on food webs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31141628, year = {2019}, author = {Salas, RN and Jacobs, W and Perera, F}, title = {The Case of Juliana v. U.S. - Children and the Health Burdens of Climate Change.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {380}, number = {22}, pages = {2085-2087}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp1905504}, pmid = {31141628}, issn = {1533-4406}, }
@article {pmid31141533, year = {2019}, author = {Silva, JLSE and Cruz-Neto, O and Peres, CA and Tabarelli, M and Lopes, AV}, title = {Climate change will reduce suitable Caatinga dry forest habitat for endemic plants with disproportionate impacts on specialized reproductive strategies.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0217028}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0217028}, pmid = {31141533}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Global climate change alters the dynamic of natural ecosystems and directly affects species distributions, persistence and diversity. The impacts of climate change may lead to dramatic changes in biotic interactions, such as pollination and seed dispersal. Life history traits are extremely important to consider the vulnerability of a species to climate change, producing more robust models than those based primarily on species distributions. Here, we hypothesized that rising temperatures and aridity will reduce suitable habitats for the endemic flora of the Caatinga, the most diverse dry tropical forest on Earth. Specifically, species with specialized reproductive traits (e.g. vertebrate pollination, biotic dispersal, obligatory cross-pollination) should be more affected by climate change than those with generalist traits. We performed two ecological niche models (current and future) to simulate the effects of climate change on the distribution area of endemic species in relation to life-history traits. We used the MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 models for both intermediate (RCP4.5) and highest predicted (RCP8.5) GHG emission scenarios, with a resolution of 30' (~1 km2). Habitat with high occurrence probability (>80%) of endemic species will be reduced (up to ~10% for trees, ~13% for non-arboreous, 10-28% for species with any pollination/reproductive system), with the greatest reductions for species with specialized reproductive traits. In addition, the likely concentration of endemic plants in the extreme northeastern portion of the Caatinga, in more mesic areas, coincides with the currently most human-modified areas of the ecosystem, which combined with climate change will further contract suitable habitats of endemic species. In conclusion, plant species endemic to the Caatinga are highly vulnerable to even conservative scenarios of future climate change and may lose much of their climatic envelopes. New protected areas should be located in the northeastern portion of the Caatinga, which hosts a more favorable climate, but is currently exposed to escalating agricultural intensification.}, }
@article {pmid31139439, year = {2019}, author = {Muttarak, R and Dimitrova, A}, title = {Climate change and seasonal floods: potential long-term nutritional consequences for children in Kerala, India.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {e001215}, doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2018-001215}, pmid = {31139439}, issn = {2059-7908}, }
@article {pmid31139411, year = {2019}, author = {Padilla, P and Ducret, V and Bonneaud, C and Courant, J and Herrel, A}, title = {Acclimation temperature effects on locomotor traits in adult aquatic anurans (X. tropicalis and X. laevis) from different latitudes: possible implications for climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coz019}, doi = {10.1093/conphys/coz019}, pmid = {31139411}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Climate change is in part responsible for the 70% decline in amphibian species numbers worldwide. Although temperature is expected to impact whole-organism performance in ectotherms, reversible thermal acclimation has been suggested as a mechanism that may buffer responses to abrupt temperature changes. Here, we test for an effect of acclimation on locomotor performance traits (jump force and stamina) in adults of two predominantly aquatic and closely related frog species from different climatic regions, Xenopus tropicalis (tropical) and Xenopus laevis (temperate). We find significant effects of acclimation temperature on exertion capacity and for jump force in X. tropicalis but no effect of acclimation temperature on burst performance in X. laevis. Our results suggest that the two locomotor performance traits measured are differentially impacted by acclimation temperature in X. tropicalis. Our results further support the hypothesis that lower-latitude ectotherms might have greater acclimation capacity than high-latitude ones. Finally, our results highlight the importance of investigating multiple performance traits when evaluating how animals may cope with changes in temperature. Further work is required to evaluate the potential for acclimation in mitigating the negative impacts of climate change on amphibian populations.}, }
@article {pmid31139199, year = {2019}, author = {Dahal, K and Li, XQ and Tai, H and Creelman, A and Bizimungu, B}, title = {Improving Potato Stress Tolerance and Tuber Yield Under a Climate Change Scenario - A Current Overview.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {563}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00563}, pmid = {31139199}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Global climate change in the form of extreme heat and drought poses a major challenge to sustainable crop production by negatively affecting plant performance and crop yield. Such negative impact on crop yield is likely to be aggravated in future because continued greenhouse gas emissions will cause further rise in temperature leading to increased evapo-transpiration and drought severity, soil salinity as well as insect and disease threats. This has raised a major challenge for plant scientists on securing global food demand, which urges an immediate need to enhance the current yield of major food crops by two-fold to feed the increasing population. As a fourth major food crop, enhancing potato productivity is important for food security of an increasing population. However, potato plant is highly prone to high temperature, drought, soil salinity, as well as insect and diseases. In order to maintain a sustainable potato production, we must adapt our cultivation practices and develop stress tolerant potato cultivars that are appropriately engineered for changing environment. Yet the lack of data on the underlying mechanisms of potato plant resistance to abiotic and biotic stress and the ability to predict future outcomes constitutes a major knowledge gap. It is a challenge for plant scientists to pinpoint means of improving tuber yield under increasing CO2, high temperature and drought stress including the changing patterns of pest and pathogen infestations. Understanding stress-related physiological, biochemical and molecular processes is crucial to develop screening procedures for selecting crop cultivars that can better adapt to changing growth conditions. Elucidation of such mechanism may offer new insights into the identification of specific characteristics that may be useful in breeding new cultivars aimed at maintaining or even enhancing potato yield under changing climate. This paper discusses the recent progress on the mechanism by which potato plants initially sense the changes in their surrounding CO2, temperature, water status, soil salinity and consequently respond to these changes at the molecular, biochemical and physiological levels. We suggest that future research needs to be concentrated on the identification and characterization of signaling molecules and target genes regulating stress tolerance and crop yield potential.}, }
@article {pmid31134598, year = {2019}, author = {Yao, Y and Tseng, YS}, title = {[Health Promotion and Emergency Medical Care for All Age Groups Under Conditions of Climate Change].}, journal = {Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {29-34}, doi = {10.6224/JN.201906_66(3).05}, pmid = {31134598}, issn = {0047-262X}, abstract = {Climate change impacts on the ecosystem services that people rely on, such as water, air, and agricultural products. The quality and quantity of various ecosystem services may be diminished under conditions of extreme climate change. Therefore, the effects of climate change may be expected to threaten people's health and survival. The concept of health promotion includes attention to the environment and emphasizes balance between nature and manmade structures. In addition, health promotion practices and actions in response to climate change emphasize multidisciplinary cooperation and focus on health inequality and vulnerable populations. Therefore, health promotion professionals must have sufficient professional competence in order to manage the multifaceted health impacts of climate change. The purpose of this article is to review the literature on health promotion and emergency medical care under conditions of climate change. Examples are provided to delineate the biological, psychological, social, and spiritual effects of climate change. The results of this literature review may provide community-based health promotion and emergency medical services guidance for further development and improvements. Healthcare professionals are expected to play a central role in managing the impact of climate change in order to achieve health for all.}, }
@article {pmid31134596, year = {2019}, author = {Wu, CD}, title = {[Application of Geospatial Information Technologies in Assessing Changes in Regional Health Risks Related to Climate Change].}, journal = {Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {14-22}, doi = {10.6224/JN.201906_66(3).03}, pmid = {31134596}, issn = {0047-262X}, abstract = {Changes in climate and global warming trends impact the ecological balance as well as human health. The recent development of geospatial information technologies such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing provides useful tools to assess the impacts of climate changes on human health over large areas. This article aimed to conduct a literature review related to the application of geospatial information technologies in order to assess climate-change-related health risks in Taiwan, with primary outcomes of interest including physiological and mental health and infectious diseases. Three environmental factors, including temperature, precipitation, and air pollution, and their impacts on human health were considered. Comments were raised for future studies in Taiwan on this subject area. Among the hundred papers reviewed, 28 were related to the target topic, and air pollution and fine particle studies were the focus of most of these 28 papers. Studies related to extreme temperature indicted growing concern with this issue. However, limited research was found related to precipitation and environmental greenness. Therefore, future studies should pay greater attention to these two environmental issues. We hope that the findings of this literature review will encourage more researchers to investigate this subject.}, }
@article {pmid31134595, year = {2019}, author = {Wu, PC}, title = {[Adaptation to Climate Change: Regional Revitalization and Community Health].}, journal = {Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {6-13}, doi = {10.6224/JN.201906_66(3).02}, pmid = {31134595}, issn = {0047-262X}, abstract = {The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published &quot;The Adaptation Gap Report 2018&quot; in December 2018 to promote adaptation to global climate change in the realm of public health. This report notes that we are still far from being able to cope with the impacts that many scientists are predicting. In addition, this report calls on countries to construct the Climate Resilience of Health System, which is a multidisciplinary approach to building the capacity necessary to prepare for and adapt to extreme weather. Strategies for adaptation require not only top-down integration from national and regional governments but also bottom-up participation from communities and individuals. This article aims to elucidate the concept of community-based adaptation to climate change and presents applications of this concept. Because the government is promoting the national policy of &quot;Regional Revitalization&quot;, the sustainable community may be built if this policy takes into account adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31134594, year = {2019}, author = {Huang, CL}, title = {[Environmental Health and Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change].}, journal = {Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {4-5}, doi = {10.6224/JN.201906_66(3).01}, pmid = {31134594}, issn = {0047-262X}, abstract = {The United Nation's 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are an urgent call to all countries for action to combat climate change and its impacts (United Nations, 2015). In response, Taiwan's highest national body, the Executive Yuan, has designated health as one of eight primary areas of threats and challenges in the policy document &quot;Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change in Taiwan&quot;. Further, the Ministry of Education has been promoting climate-change adaptation education since 2012 and, in 2016, the Teaching Alliance was established to promote the integration of climate change issues into public education curricula as well as resource sharing and multidisciplinary collaboration (Ministry of Education, 2019). The focus of nursing on primary healthcare and community care makes nursing professionals critical to successfully attaining UN SDGs (Shmian, 2016). In addition, the environmental health component of nursing education addresses core global health and public health competences directly (Clark, Raffray, Hendricks, &amp; Gagnon, 2016). The American Nurses Association (2013) includes environmental health as one of the eleven standards of professional performance for public health nursing. This column invites Teaching Alliance educators to share their experiences in multidisciplinary professional, teaching, and practice environments in articles that hopefully enhance readers' knowledge of adaptation strategies and of the sustainable development of public health under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31133941, year = {2019}, author = {Böhm, G and Pfister, HR and Salway, A and Fløttum, K}, title = {Remembering and Communicating Climate Change Narratives - The Influence of World Views on Selective Recollection.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1026}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2019.01026}, pmid = {31133941}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {We examine how people remember stories about climate change and how they communicate these stories to others. Drawing on theories of reconstructive memory and cultural theory, we assume that recollection is systematically affected by an individual's world view as well as by the world view of the target audience. In an experimental study with a Norwegian representative sample (N = 266), participants read a story about three politicians, in which each protagonist was described as holding a specific world view and as trying to tackle climate change with a corresponding strategy (individualistic/free market oriented, hierarchical/technology-oriented, or egalitarian/sustainability-oriented). After 1 day and then after 1 week, participants were asked to retell the story as if to somebody who was characterized as being either an individualist, a hierarchist, or an egalitarian; in addition, a neutral recall control condition without a specified audience was included. Participants' own world view was assessed and they were classified as endorsing individualism, or hierarchism, or egalitarianism. We hypothesized that retellings would be selectively reconstructed according to the world view of the participant, as well as tuned to the audience's world view. We assessed the cognitive structure of the recollected story, and, using methods from computational text analysis, we computed similarities among retellings and the original narrative, and among retellings and world views. Results suggest that (i) retellings become less accurate over time, (ii) retelling to an audience with an explicit world view leads to more strongly filtered retellings than recalling without a specified audience, but the filter operates in a non-specific manner with respect to world views, (iii) the cognitive structure of the recollected story shows small but systematic differences concerning the link between story problem and solution as a function of the participant's and the audience's world view. No interaction was found between the world view of the participant and that of the audience. Results emphasize the role of world views in communicating climate change, and might help to better understand phenomena such as polarization and echo chamber effects.}, }
@article {pmid31131789, year = {2019}, author = {Chersich, M}, title = {Will global warming undo the hard-won gains of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV?.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {109}, number = {5}, pages = {287-288}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2019.v109i5.13988}, pmid = {31131789}, issn = {2078-5135}, }
@article {pmid31130141, year = {2019}, author = {Wilcox, BA and Echaubard, P and de Garine-Wichatitsky, M and Ramirez, B}, title = {Vector-borne disease and climate change adaptation in African dryland social-ecological systems.}, journal = {Infectious diseases of poverty}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {36}, doi = {10.1186/s40249-019-0539-3}, pmid = {31130141}, issn = {2049-9957}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Drylands, which are among the biosphere's most naturally limiting and environmentally variable ecosystems, constitute three-quarters of the African continent. As a result, environmental sustainability and human development along with vector-borne disease (VBD) control historically have been especially challenging in Africa, particularly in the sub-Saharan and Sahelian drylands. Here, the VBD burden, food insecurity, environmental degradation, and social vulnerability are particularly severe. Changing climate can exacerbate the legion of environmental health threats in Africa, the social dimensions of which are now part of the international development agenda. Accordingly, the need to better understand the dynamics and complex coupling of populations and environments as exemplified by drylands is increasingly recognized as critical to the design of more sustainable interventions.<br><br>MAIN BODY: This scoping review examines the challenge of vector-borne disease control in drylands with a focus on Africa, and the dramatic, ongoing environmental and social changes taking place. Dryland societies persisted and even flourished in the past despite changing climates, extreme and unpredictable weather, and marginal conditions for agriculture. Yet intrusive forces largely out of the control of traditional dryland societies, along with the negative impacts of globalization, have contributed to the erosion of dryland's cultural and natural resources. This has led to the loss of resilience underlying the adaptive capacity formerly widely exhibited among dryland societies. A growing body of evidence from studies of environmental and natural resource management demonstrates how, in light of dryland system's inherent complexity, these factors and top-down interventions can impede sustainable development and vector-borne disease control. Strengthening adaptive capacity through community-based, participatory methods that build on local knowledge and are tailored to local ecological conditions, hold the best promise of reversing current trends.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A significant opportunity exists to simultaneously address the increasing threat of vector-borne diseases and climate change through methods aimed at strengthening adaptive capacity. The integrative framework and methods based on social-ecological systems and resilience theory offers a novel set of tools that allow multiple threats and sources of vulnerability to be addressed in combination. Integration of recent advances in vector borne disease ecology and wider deployment of these tools could help reverse the negative social and environmental trends currently seen in African drylands.}, }
@article {pmid31129549, year = {2019}, author = {Haque, U and da Silva, PF and Devoli, G and Pilz, J and Zhao, B and Khaloua, A and Wilopo, W and Andersen, P and Lu, P and Lee, J and Yamamoto, T and Keellings, D and Jian-Hong, W and Glass, GE}, title = {The human cost of global warming: Deadly landslides and their triggers (1995-2014).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {673-684}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.415}, pmid = {31129549}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Worldwide, landslides incur catastrophic and significant economic and human losses. Previous studies have characterized the patterns in landslides' fatalities, from all kinds of triggering causes, at a continental or global scale, but they were based on data from periods of <10 years. The research herein presented hypothesizes that climate change associated with extreme rainfall and population distribution is contributing to a higher number of deadly landslides worldwide. This study maps and identified deadly landslides in 128 countries and it encompasses their role, for a 20 years' period from January/1995 to December/2014, considered representative for establishing a relationship between landslides and their meteorological triggers. A database of georeferenced landslides, their date, and casualties' information, duly validated, was implemented. A hot spot analysis for the daily record of landslide locations was performed, as well as a percentile-based approach to evaluate the trend of extreme rainfall events for each occurrence. The relationship between casualty, population distribution, and rainfall was also evaluated. For 20 years, 3876 landslides caused a total of 163,658 deaths and 11,689 injuries globally. They occurred most frequently between June and December in the Northern Hemisphere, and between December and February in the Southern Hemisphere. A significant global rise in the number of deadly landslides and hotspots across the studied period was observed. Analysis of daily rainfall confirmed that more than half of the events were in areas exposed to the risk of extreme rainfall. The relationships established between extreme rainfall, population distribution, seasonality, and landslides provide a useful basis for efforts to model the adverse impacts of extreme rainfall due to climate change and human activities and thus contribute towards a more resilient society.}, }
@article {pmid31129527, year = {2019}, author = {Woodward, A and Baumgartner, J and Ebi, KL and Gao, J and Kinney, PL and Liu, Q}, title = {Population health impacts of China's climate change policies.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {175}, number = {}, pages = {178-185}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.05.020}, pmid = {31129527}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Rapid and wide-ranging reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required to meet the climate targets agreed upon at the 2015 Paris climate conference. There will be significant transition risks for health, livelihoods, and ecosystems associated with large-scale mitigation, but also opportunities. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts, positive and negative, of climate policies on population health in China. We review the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) that China took to the Paris meeting, link commitments in the INDC to national planning documents relevant to environment and health, and search the literature for Chinese publications on health trade-offs and synergies. Synergies are evident in the measures taken to reduce local air pollution in China: controls on coal burning have materially improved local air quality and benefited health. But there may be risks to health also, depending on how policies are implemented and what safeguards are provided. To date most assessments of the health impacts of climate policies in China have been modelling studies. We recommend work of this kind is complemented by observational research to identify unexpected impacts and vulnerabilities. It will become even more important to undertake this work as emission reductions accelerate to meet the Paris climate targets.}, }
@article {pmid31129137, year = {2019}, author = {Rickert, B and van den Berg, H and Bekure, K and Girma, S and de Roda Husman, AM}, title = {Including aspects of climate change into water safety planning: Literature review of global experience and case studies from Ethiopian urban supplies.}, journal = {International journal of hygiene and environmental health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijheh.2019.05.007}, pmid = {31129137}, issn = {1618-131X}, abstract = {In recent years, the water safety plan approach has been extended towards climate-resilient water safety planning. This happened in response to increasing insight into impacts of climate on drinking-water and required adaptation to anticipated climate change. Literature was reviewed for published guidance and case examples, documenting how to consider climate in water safety planning to support future uptake. Climate-resilient water safety plans were piloted within a project in the water supplies of Addis Ababa and Adama, Ethiopia. Case examples have been published in four of six WHO regions with a focus on urban supplies. Integration of climate aspects focused mostly on the steps of establishing the team, system description, hazard analysis and risk assessment, improvement planning and development of management procedures. While the traditional framework focuses on drinking-water quality, considering climate change augments aspects of water quantity. Therefore, other factors affecting water quantity such as population development and demand of other sectors need to be considered as well. Local climate information and tools should be employed as a significant success factor for future uptake. Such information should be incorporated as it becomes available, and may - depending on the setting - be incrementally integrated into existing water safety plans or used to develop new ones.}, }
@article {pmid31125746, year = {2019}, author = {Onozuka, D and Gasparrini, A and Sera, F and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y}, title = {Future projections of temperature-related excess out-of-hospital cardiac arrest under climate change scenarios in Japan.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {333-339}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.196}, pmid = {31125746}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Recent studies have reported associations between global climate change and mortality. However, future projections of temperature-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) have not been thoroughly evaluated. Thus, we aimed to project temperature-related morbidity for OHCA concomitant with climate change.<br><br>METHODS: We collected national registry data on all OHCA cases reported in 2005-2015 from all 47 Japanese prefectures. We used a two-stage time series analysis to estimate temperature-OHCA relationships. Time series of current and future daily mean temperature variations were constructed according to four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using five general circulation models. We projected excess morbidity for heat and cold and the net change in 1990-2099 for each climate change scenario using the assumption of no adaptation or population changes.<br><br>RESULTS: During the study period, 739,717 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported. Net decreases in temperature-related excess morbidity were observed under higher emission scenarios. The net change in 2090-2099 compared with 2010-2019 was -0.8% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: -1.9, 0.1) for a mild emission scenario (RCP2.6), -2.6% (95% eCI: -4.4, -0.8) for a stabilization scenario (RCP4.5), -3.4% (95% eCI: -5.7, -1.0) for a stabilization scenario (RCP6.0), and - 4.2% (95% eCI: -8.3, -0.1) for an extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that Japan is projected to experience a substantial net reduction in OHCAs in higher-emission scenarios. The decrease in risk is limited to a specific morbidity cause, and a broader assessment within climate change scenarios should consider other direct and indirect impacts.}, }
@article {pmid31125741, year = {2019}, author = {Areia, NP and Intrigliolo, D and Tavares, A and Mendes, JM and Sequeira, MD}, title = {The role of media between expert and lay knowledge: A study of Iberian media coverage on climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {291-300}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.191}, pmid = {31125741}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Individuals play a crucial role in combating climate change, but high levels of acknowledgment and engagement are needed to lead to changes toward more sustainable behaviours. In this aspect, media plays an important role in shaping individuals' awareness about climate change. This study aims to analyse Iberian media coverage about climate change to further discuss its influence on the public's engagement with the subject. A total of 449 news were collected from Iberian newspapers. Their characteristics were analysed through quantitative content analysis. Data shows important journalistic bias toward a national framing, mainly focusing on drought and its impact on agriculture. The debate is focused on technological and political discourses. The gaps found on the Iberian media coverage may contribute to public's low levels of acknowledgement and engagement, not enhancing the possibility of change in individuals' behaviours for more sustainable actions.}, }
@article {pmid31121402, year = {2019}, author = {Samah, AA and Shaffril, HAM and Fadzil, MF}, title = {Comparing adaptation ability towards climate change impacts between the youth and the older fishermen.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {681}, number = {}, pages = {524-532}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.089}, pmid = {31121402}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In recent years, a considerable amount of studies published locally which focused on the influence of age on climate change ability. Accordingly, this has driven the present study to achieve its main objective which is to compare the adaptation ability between youth and older fishermen. The current research is quantitative in nature; hence, a survey was conducted on a total of 259 youth and older fishermen residing in different states of Malaysia, namely Pulau Pinang, Terengganu, Johor, and Kedah. The present study managed to conclude a unique and important result which stated that youth and older fishermen within the context of Malaysia have an equally strong adaptation ability. In regard to this matter, a number of recommendations were presented at the end of this paper with the hope that it can act as a basis for future scholars to conduct more climate change related studies.}, }
@article {pmid31121353, year = {2019}, author = {Green, FB and East, AG and Salice, CJ}, title = {Will temperature increases associated with climate change potentiate toxicity of environmentally relevant concentrations of chloride on larval green frogs (Lithobates clamitans)?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {282-290}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.018}, pmid = {31121353}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {An important challenge in amphibian ecotoxicology and conservation is that amphibian toxicity tests are usually focused on a single chemical while populations experience multiple, simultaneous stressors. For example, about 14 million tons of road de-icing salts are used each year in North America with NaCl accounting for 98% of total salt use and, hence, elevated chloride is an important environmental stressor to aquatic organisms, including amphibians. As well, higher temperature as a result of climate change is becoming an increasingly important environmental stressor. There are no data on the combined effects of chloride and temperature on amphibians hinders conservation efforts. We conducted field studies to characterize chloride concentrations and water temperatures in known amphibian breeding habitats and performed toxicity tests to explore impacts of these two stressors on a common anuran, the green frog (Lithobates clamitans). A 96-hour acute toxicity test was conducted to first determine a chloride LC50 (2587.5 mg Cl-/L) at a single, neutral temperature, which was used to inform the treatment levels of the sub-chronic test, which also included a temperature range. In the sub-chronic study, green frog larvae were exposed to three temperatures (18, 22, and 25 °C), and four concentrations of chloride (0, 500, 1000, and 2000 mg Cl-/L) for 35 days. At all temperatures, tadpoles exposed to 2000 mg Cl-/L had significantly higher mortality. While there was no significant effect of temperature alone on mortality, survival of tadpoles was significantly lower at 1000 mg Cl-/L at the two higher temperatures suggesting a potentiation of chloride ion toxicity with increasing temperature. Comparing toxicity results to field measurements of chloride and temperature suggests green frog tadpoles and other species with similar sensitivity are likely negatively affected. Data on additional species and populations would further increase our understanding of how salt and temperature may shape aquatic communities.}, }
@article {pmid31121350, year = {2019}, author = {Häder, DP and Barnes, PW}, title = {Comparing the impacts of climate change on the responses and linkages between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {239-246}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.024}, pmid = {31121350}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Aquatic and terrestrial organisms are being exposed to a number of anthropogenically-induced environmental stresses as a consequence of climate change. In addition, climate change is altering various linkages that exist between ecosystems on land and in water. Here we compare and contrast how climate change is altering aquatic and terrestrial environments and address some of the ways that the organisms in these ecosystems, especially the primary producers, are being affected by climate change factors, including changes in temperature, moisture, atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar UV radiation. Whereas there are some responses to climate change in common between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (e.g., changes in species composition and shifting geographic ranges and distributions), there are also responses that fundamentally differ between these two (e.g., responses to UV radiation). Climate change is also disrupting land-water connections in ways that influence biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions in ways that can modify how aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are affected by climate change and can influence climate change. The effects of climate change on these ecosystems are having wide-ranging effects on ecosystem biodiversity, structure and function and the abilities of these systems to provide essential services.}, }
@article {pmid31120003, year = {2019}, author = {Haniotis, T}, title = {Opinion paper: Beef, climate change and a slice of common sense.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1017/S1751731119001101}, pmid = {31120003}, issn = {1751-732X}, }
@article {pmid31119538, year = {2019}, author = {Lin, HC and Chou, LC and Zhang, WH}, title = {Cross-Strait climate change and agricultural product loss.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-05166-2}, pmid = {31119538}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The structure of agricultural industries at Cross-Strait differs as climate change is considered. In fact, its influence on their agriculture and other industries vary when the impact produced by natural disasters due to climate change are faced. To estimate direct and indirect losses caused by natural disasters, this study applies Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) analysis developed by Miller and Blair (2009) to discuss the development among Cross-Strait industries as they face disaster losses. The data sources used in this article are from Lin (2013), Cross-Strait ICIO table, and the statistics of agriculture in the periods 2005-2017 for Taiwan and Mainland China. The main results from our ICIO analysis are as follows: the value-added losses caused by natural disasters mainly involve agriculture, forestry, fishery, wholesale and retail trade, animal feed, and chemical fertilizer industries. These sectors account for 87.4% in Mainland China and 94.6% in Taiwan of total separately.}, }
@article {pmid31118471, year = {2019}, author = {Cazzolla Gatti, R and Callaghan, T and Velichevskaya, A and Dudko, A and Fabbio, L and Battipaglia, G and Liang, J}, title = {Accelerating upward treeline shift in the Altai Mountains under last-century climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {7678}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-44188-1}, pmid = {31118471}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Treeline shift and tree growth often respond to climatic changes and it is critical to identify and quantify their dynamics. Some regions are particularly sensitive to climate change and the Altai Mountains, located in Central and East Asia, are showing unequivocal signs. The mean annual temperature in the area has increased by 1.3-1.7 °C in the last century. As this mountain range has ancient and protected forests on alpine slopes, we focus on determining the treeline structure and dynamics. We integrated in situ fine-scale allometric data with analyses from dendrochronological samples, high-resolution 3D drone photos and new satellite images to study the dynamics and underlying causal mechanisms of any treeline movement and growth changes in a remote preserved forest at the Aktru Research Station in the Altai Mountain. We show that temperature increase has a negative effect on mountain tree growth. In contrast, only younger trees grow at higher altitudes and we document a relatively fast upward shift of the treeline. During the last 52 years, treeline moved about 150 m upward and the rate of movement accelerated until recently. Before the 1950s, it never shifted over 2150-2200 m a.s.l. We suggest that a continuous upward expansion of the treeline would be at the expense of meadow and shrub species and radically change this high-mountain ecosystem with its endemic flora. This documented treeline shift represents clear evidence of the increased velocity of climate change during the last century.}, }
@article {pmid31116787, year = {2019}, author = {Zuo, J and Xu, J and Li, W and Yang, D}, title = {Understanding shallow soil moisture variation in the data-scarce area and its relationship with climate change by GLDAS data.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0217020}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0217020}, pmid = {31116787}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Quantitatively evaluating the spatiotemporal variation of soil moisture (SM) and its causes can help us to understand regional eco-hydrological processes. However, the complicated geographical environment and the scarce observation data make it difficult to evaluate SM in Northwest China. Selecting the Tarim River Basin (TRB) as a typical representative of the data-scarce area in Northwest China, we conducted an integrated approach to quantitatively assess the spatiotemporal variation of shallow soil moisture (SSM) and its responses to climate change by gathering the earth system data product. Results show that the low-value of SSM distributes in Taklamakan Desert while the high-value basically distributes in the Pamirs and the southern foothill of Tianshan Mountains, where the land types are mostly forest, grassland, and farmland. Annual average SSM of these three land types present a significant increasing trend during the study period. SM at 0-10 cm of all land types are positively correlated to precipitation in spring and autumn, and SM at 0-10 cm in the forest, grassland, and farmland are positively correlated with temperature in winter. SSM presents in-phase relation with precipitation whereas it presents anti-phase relation with temperature, with the significant resonance periods about 6-8 years and 2-3 years which mainly distribute from 1970s to early 1990s and 1960s respectively. The time lags of SSM relative to temperature change are longer than its lags relative to precipitation change, and the lags vary from different land types.}, }
@article {pmid31113889, year = {2019}, author = {Kovaleski, AP and Baseggio, M}, title = {Is increased corn yield really the silver lining of climate change?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {21}, pages = {10206-10208}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1904487116}, pmid = {31113889}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid31112555, year = {2019}, author = {de Oliveira, UDR and Gomes, PB and Silva Cordeiro, RT and de Lima, GV and Pérez, CD}, title = {Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential habitat of an endangered Brazilian endemic coral: Discussion about deep sea refugia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0211171}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0211171}, pmid = {31112555}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate and environmental conditions are determinant for coral distribution and their very existence. When changes in such conditions occur, their effects on distribution can be predicted through species distribution models, anticipating suitable habitats for the subsistence of species. Mussismilia harttii is one of the most endangered Brazilian endemic reef-building corals, and in increasing risk of extinction. Herein, species distribution models were used to determine the present and future potential habitats for M. harttii. Estimations were made through the maximum entropy approach, predicting suitable habitat losses and gains by the end of the 21st century. For this purpose, species records published in the last 20 years and current and future environmental variables were correlated. The best models were chosen according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and evaluated through the partial ROC (AUCratio), a new approach which uses independent occurrence data. Both approaches showed that the models performed satisfactorily in predicting potential habitat areas for the species. Future projections were made using the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2100, with different levels of greenhouse gas emission. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to model the Future Potential Habitat (FPH) of M. harttii in two different scenarios: stabilization of emissions (RCP 4.5) and increase of emissions (RCP 8.5). According to the results, shallow waters to the south of the study area concentrate most of the current potential habitats for the species. However, in future scenarios, there was a loss of suitable areas in relation to the Current Potential Habitat (RCP 4.5 46% and RCP 8.5 59%), whereas there is a southward shift of the suitable areas. In all scenarios of FPH, the temperature was the variable with the greatest contribution to the models (> 35%), followed by the current velocity (> 33%) and bathymetry (>29%). In contrast, there is an increase of deep (50-75 m) suitable areas FPH scenarios, mainly in the southern portion of its distribution, at Abrolhos Bank (off Espirito Santo State). These deeper sites might serve as refugia for the species in global warming scenarios. Coral communities at such depths would be less susceptible to impacts of climate change on temperature and salinity. However, the deep sea is not free from human impacts and measures to protect deeper ecosystems should be prioritized in environmental policies for Brazilian marine conservation, especially the Abrolhos Bank, due to its importance for M. harttii.}, }
@article {pmid31111639, year = {2019}, author = {Azzurro, E and Sbragaglia, V and Cerri, J and Bariche, M and Bolognini, L and Ben Souissi, J and Busoni, G and Coco, S and Chryssanthi, A and Fanelli, E and Ghanem, R and Garrabou, J and Gianni, F and Grati, F and Kolitari, J and Letterio, G and Lipej, L and Mazzoldi, C and Milone, N and Pannacciulli, F and Pešić, A and Samuel-Rhoads, Y and Saponari, L and Tomanic, J and Eda Topçu, N and Vargiu, G and Moschella, P}, title = {Climate change, biological invasions, and the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes: A large-scale survey based on local ecological knowledge.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14670}, pmid = {31111639}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {MPA-Adapt 1MED15_3.2_M2_337//European Regional Development Fund/ ; //Albert II of Monaco Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change and biological invasions are rapidly reshuffling species distribution, restructuring the biological communities of many ecosystems worldwide. Tracking these transformations in the marine environment is crucial, but our understanding of climate change effects and invasive species dynamics is often hampered by the practical challenge of surveying large geographical areas. Here, we focus on the Mediterranean Sea, a hot spot for climate change and biological invasions to investigate recent spatiotemporal changes in fish abundances and distribution. To this end, we accessed the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of small-scale and recreational fishers, reconstructing the dynamics of fish perceived as &quot;new&quot; or increasing in different fishing areas. Over 500 fishers across 95 locations and nine different countries were interviewed, and semiquantitative information on yearly changes in species abundance was collected. Overall, 75 species were mentioned by the respondents, mostly warm-adapted species of both native and exotic origin. Respondents belonging to the same biogeographic sectors described coherent spatial and temporal patterns, and gradients along latitudinal and longitudinal axes were revealed. This information provides a more complete understanding of the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes and it also demonstrates that adequately structured LEK methodology might be applied successfully beyond the local scale, across national borders and jurisdictions. Acknowledging this potential through macroregional coordination could pave the way for future large-scale aggregations of individual observations, increasing our potential for integrated monitoring and conservation planning at the regional or even global level. This might help local communities to better understand, manage, and adapt to the ongoing biotic transformations driven by climate change and biological invaders.}, }
@article {pmid31110687, year = {2019}, author = {Gong, H and Liu, H and Jiao, F and Lin, Z and Xu, X}, title = {Pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise on the future distribution of Spartina alterniflora along the Chinese coast.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {5380-5391}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5129}, pmid = {31110687}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Aim: Global change seriously threatens the salt marsh ecosystem, while it remains unclear how S. will respond to climate change and sea level rise. Here, we investigated interactions among variables and identified the impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and their interactions on the distribution of Spartina alterniflora.<br><br>Location: Northern Chinese coast and Southern Chinese coast.<br><br>Taxon: Spartina alterniflora Loisel.<br><br>Methods: With global sensitivity analysis, we determined interactions among variables and their relative importance to the distribution of S. alterniflora. Integrating the Venn's four-set diagram, we built ecological niche models under current and three future scenarios to identify pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise on the distribution of S. alterniflora.<br><br>Results: Mean diurnal range (Bio02) and Elevation were the two most critical variables controlling the distribution of S. alterniflora on the Chinese coast, and interactions among variables of the northern coast were much greater than that of the southern coast. Habitats change was mainly caused by pure effects of climate change, except habitats reduction on the southern coast. Pure effects of sea level rise were low, but it can influence habitats change through shared and coupling effects from complex interactions with climate change. Interactions of climate change and sea level rise can drive habitats change, and the changed habitats caused by shared and coupling effects were mainly distributed the areas near the landward side.<br><br>Main conclusions: Our research suggests paying attention to interactions among variables when calculating the relative importance of explanatory variables. Identifying pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise for the distribution of S. alterniflora will provide scientific references for assessing the risk of similar coastal species.}, }
@article {pmid31110674, year = {2019}, author = {Jia, SW and Zhang, ML}, title = {Pleistocene climate change and phylogeographic structure of the Gymnocarpos przewalskii (Caryophyllaceae) in the northwest China: Evidence from plastid DNA, ITS sequences, and Microsatellite.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {5219-5235}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5113}, pmid = {31110674}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Northwestern China has a wealth of endemic species, which has been hypothesized to be affected by the complex paleoclimatic and paleogeographic history during Quaternary. In this paper, we used Gymnocarpos przewalskii as a model to address the evolutionary history and current population genetic structure of species in northwestern China. We employed two chloroplast DNA fragments (rps16 and psbB-psbI), one nuclear DNA fragment (ITS), and simple sequence repeat (SSRs) to investigate the spatial genetic pattern of G. przewalskii. High genetic diversity (cpDNA: hS = 0.330, hT = 0.866; ITS: hS = 0.458, hT = 0.872) was identified in almost all populations, and most of the population have private haplotypes. Moreover, multimodal mismatch distributions were observed and estimates of Tajima's D and Fu's FS tests did not identify significantly departures from neutrality, indicating that recent expansion of G. przewalskii was rejected. Thus, we inferred that G. przewalskii survived generally in northwestern China during the Pleistocene. All data together support the genotypes of G. przewalskii into three groups, consistent with their respective geographical distributions in the western regions-Tarim Basin, the central regions-Hami Basin and Hexi Corridor, and the eastern regions-Alxa Desert and Wulate Prairie. Divergence among most lineages of G. przewalskii occurred in the Pleistocene, and the range of potential distributions is associated with glacial cycles. We concluded that climate oscillation during Pleistocene significantly affected the distribution of the species.}, }
@article {pmid31107027, year = {2019}, author = {Luo, X and Liang, Y and He, HS and Huang, C and Zhang, QL}, title = {[Effects of climate change, fire and silvicultural management on ecological resilience of typical cold-temperate forests in China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {1699-1712}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201905.011}, pmid = {31107027}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {Ecological resilience is characterized by the recovery capacity of forest ecosystem from a status affected by external disturbance to a stable status, which is one of the important targets for sustainable development of forests. Ecological resilience is sensitive to external factors, such as climate change, forest fire, and silvicutural management at large scales. Understanding the effects of those factors on ecological resilience is important for forest ecosystem management. In this study, we calculated ecological resilience with indicators including forest structure, composition and function. We used a landscape model LANDIS PRO to evaluate the effects of climate change, climate-induced fire, and silvicultural management on ecological resilience in boreal forests. We also evaluated whether the current thinning treatment could be implemented under the scenarios of climate change. The results showed that the initialized stand density and basal area from the year 2000 could represent the real forest landscape in year 2000, with no significant difference between the simulated landscape and the forest inventory data in the year 2010 at landscape scale. The results of simulated fire disturbance were consistent with the results from the field inventories in burned areas. The fire module parameters set adequately represented the current fire regimes in model simulation. The ecological resilience could increase by 15.7%-40.8% at landscape scale when fire intensity increased by 30%, whereas the ecological resilience decreased by 4.4%-24.6% when fire intensity increased by 200%. At the short and medium term, the effects of increased fire on forest ecological resilience were greater than that of climate change. Compared to the current base scenario, forest ecological resilience under B1 climate with fire intensity increased by 30% scenario and A2 climate with fire intensity increased by 200% scenario fluctuated in the ranges of -15.9%-38.9% and -60.4%-34.8% in the whole simulation period at landscape scale. Compared to no harvesting scenario, the current thinning strategy would decrease the ecological resilience at landscape scale under both B1 and A2 scenarios in all simulated periods. Under the scenario of B1 climate with 30% increases of fire intensity, no silvicultural management would be needed in the whole simulation period at landscape scale, whereas medium and high intensity of silvicultural management were suggested under the scenario of A2 climate with 200% increase of fire intensity.}, }
@article {pmid31107005, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, YG and Yuan, FH and Wang, AZ and Wu, JB and Zheng, XB and Yin, H and Guan, X}, title = {[Characteristics of climate change in Changbai Mountain ecological functional area, Northeast China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {1503-1512}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201905.006}, pmid = {31107005}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {We integrated the meteorological records from 36 national weather stations and CN05.1 gridded daily observation dataset to analyze the climate change characteristics of Changbai Mountain eco-functional area. Linear tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall mutation test, cumulative anomaly method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to investigate the temporal and spatial variation of temperature (annual temperature, seasonal temperature, extreme temperature), moisture (annual precipitation, seasonal precipitation, relative humidity), radiation (sunshine duration, sunshine percentage) and wind speed from 1961 to 2016. The results showed that, during 1961-2016, the temperature of this area increased, the radiation and wind speed decreased, and the precipitation varied periodically. Specifically, winter temperature [0.45 ℃·(10 a)-1] and the lowest temperature [0.74 ℃·(10 a)-1] significantly increased. The mean annual wind speed significantly decreased [-0.21 m·s-1·(10 a)-1]. No abrupt climate change was observed. The annual precipitation days decreased considerably [-7.01 d·(10 a)-1], which was different from the climate change pattern of Northeast China. The annual precipitation trend coefficient of this area was 16.06 mm·(10 a)-1 , which could not be simply depicted by increase or decrease in trend. The precipitation change in this area was dominated by periodically patterns, and the period was 26 years and 3 years. Our results would be instructive to the regional ecological assessment, and the research on ecosystem responses to climate change and phenological changes.}, }
@article {pmid31106269, year = {2019}, author = {Bascompte, J and García, MB and Ortega, R and Rezende, EL and Pironon, S}, title = {Mutualistic interactions reshuffle the effects of climate change on plants across the tree of life.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {eaav2539}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aav2539}, pmid = {31106269}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Climatically induced local species extinctions may trigger coextinction cascades, thus driving many more species to extinction than originally predicted by species distribution models. Using seven pollination networks across Europe that include the phylogeny and life history traits of plants, we show a substantial variability across networks in climatically predicted plant extinction-and particularly the subsequent coextinction-rates, with much higher values in Mediterranean than Eurosiberian networks. While geographic location best predicts the probability of a plant species to be driven to extinction by climate change, subsequent coextinctions are best predicted by the local network of interactions. These coextinctions not only increase the total number of plant species being driven to extinction but also add a bias in the way the major taxonomic and functional groups are pruned.}, }
@article {pmid31102688, year = {2019}, author = {Azani, N and Bruneau, A and Wojciechowski, MF and Zarre, S}, title = {Miocene climate change as a driving force for multiple origins of annual species in Astragalus (Fabaceae, Papilionoideae).}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2019.05.008}, pmid = {31102688}, issn = {1095-9513}, abstract = {Astragalus, a highly diverse genus of flowering plants with its highest center of diversity in West Asia, is a classic example of rapid species-level radiation and adaptation to a diversity of habitats throughout the world. We examined the historical biogeography of Astragalus using molecular dating and ancestral area reconstruction to understand how past climate changes, geographical patterns and transition in life history have provoked diversification of Astragalus. Our results suggest that Astragalus probably originated during the middle Miocene in West Asia, underwent rapid diversification, subsequently and repeatedly expanded its range in the Mediterranean region, and later to North America through West Europe. This distribution range was also extended toward central and eastern Asia from the Middle Miocene to Pleistocene. Several climatic and geological processes during the Miocene-Pliocene may be implicated in the diversification of the major Astragalus clades. In particular, the annual lineages, which are important elements in the Mediterranean flora of Africa and Europe and in the deserts of southwest to central Asia, have arisen in response to progressing aridity from the late Miocene onwards (between 8.6 Ma to 2.98 Ma). Diversification rate analyses indicate three rapid and recent diversification events, one at c. 11 Ma in the clade that groups most of the Astragalus s.s. (all except the Ophiocarpus sister lineage), one at c. 5 Ma in the crown group of the Hypoglottis clade, including herbaceous annual and perennial species, and the most recent one at c. 3 Ma in the spiny cushion forming Astracantha clade. Our study highlights the complexity of processes and factors shaping diversifications in Astragalus; a complex interaction among climatic modifications providing opportunities for diversification and likely coincident with the evolution of key morphological and physiological adaptations.}, }
@article {pmid31097909, year = {2018}, author = {Sarkar, S and Butcher, JB and Johnson, TE and Clark, CM}, title = {Simulated Sensitivity of Urban Green Infrastructure Practices to Climate Change.}, journal = {Earth interactions}, volume = {22}, number = {13}, pages = {1-37}, doi = {10.1175/EI-D-17-0015.1}, pmid = {31097909}, issn = {1087-3562}, abstract = {Climate change is likely to alter the quantity and quality of urban stormwater, presenting a risk to water quality and public health. How might stormwater management practices need to change to address future climate? Answering requires understanding how management practices respond to climate forcing. Traditional &quot;gray&quot; stormwater design employs engineered structures, sized based on assumptions about future rainfall, which have limited flexibility once built. Green infrastructure (GI) uses vegetation, soil, and distributed structures to manage rainwater where it falls and may provide greater flexibility for adaptation. There is, however, uncertainty about how a warmer climate may affect performance of different types of GI. This study uses the hydrologic and biogeochemical watershed model, Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), to investigate sensitivity of different GI practices to climate. Simulations examine 36 urban &quot;archetypes&quot; representing different development patterns (at the city block scale) of typical U.S. cities, eleven regional climatic settings, and a range of mid-21st century scenarios based on downscaled climate model output. Results suggest regionally variable effects of climate change on the performance of GI practices for water quantity, water quality, and carbon sequestration. GI is able to mitigate most projected future increases in surface runoff, while bioretention can mitigate increased nitrogen yield at nine of eleven sites. Simulated changes in carbon balance are small, while local evaporative cooling can be substantial. Given uncertainty in the local expression of future climate, infrastructure design should emphasize flexibility and robustness to a range of future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid31096661, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, L and Guo, Z and Huang, G and Wang, R}, title = {Water Productivity Evaluation under Multi-GCM Projections of Climate Change in Oases of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16101706}, pmid = {31096661}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {2017YFC0403201//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 91425302//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {As the second largest inland river basin situated in the middle of the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China, the Heihe River basin (HRB) has been facing a severe water shortage problem, which seriously restricts its green and sustainable development. The evaluation of climate change impact on water productivity inferred by crop yield and actual evapotranspiration is of significant importance for water-saving in agricultural regions. In this study, the multi-model projections of climate change under the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) were used to drive an agro-hydrological model to evaluate the crop water productivity in the middle irrigated oases of the HRB from 2021-2050. Compared with the water productivity simulation based on field experiments during 2012-2015, the projected water productivity in the two typical agricultural areas (Gaotai and Ganzhou) both exhibited an increasing trend in the future 30 years, which was mainly attributed to the significant decrease of the crop water consumption. The water productivity in the Gaotai area under the three RCP scenarios during 2021-2050 increased by 9.2%, 14.3%, and 11.8%, while the water productivity increased by 15.4%, 21.6%, and 19.9% in the Ganzhou area, respectively. The findings can provide useful information on the Hexi Corridor and the Belt and Road to policy-makers and stakeholders for sustainable development of the water-ecosystem-economy system.}, }
@article {pmid31096360, year = {2019}, author = {Lin, B and Zhu, J}, title = {The role of renewable energy technological innovation on climate change: Empirical evidence from China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {659}, number = {}, pages = {1505-1512}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.449}, pmid = {31096360}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {To develop renewable energy as well as promote China's transition to a low-carbon economy, the government needs to pay attention to renewable energy technological innovation (RETI). Using China's provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015, and regarding the CO2 emissions as the proxy of climate change, this paper identifies the relationship between RETI and CO2 emissions as well as seeks to confirm the role of RETI on climate change. The linear regression model confirms that the RETI has a significant negative effect on CO2 emissions. In addition, considering the disparities of energy structure, the impacts of RETI on CO2 emissions may be distinct. We, therefore, construct a panel threshold model by taking into account the distinct effect of RETI under different energy structure. We find that the effect of RETI on curbing CO2 emissions decreases with the rising of coal-dominated energy consumption structure but in contrast, this effect increases with the growing proportion of renewable energy generation. This paper provides new insight into the relationship between technological innovation and climate change. Based on these findings, some relevant policy recommendations are proposed.}, }
@article {pmid31093053, year = {2018}, author = {Ridel, GM and García, JG and Fernández, MCR and Cala, DC and Rodríguez, YF and Lavastida, JEB}, title = {[The health sector in the face of disasters and climate change in CubaO setor da saúde diante de desastres e mudanças climáticas em Cuba].}, journal = {Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {e24}, doi = {10.26633/RPSP.2018.24}, pmid = {31093053}, issn = {1680-5348}, abstract = {Due to its impact on human health and its capacity to cause damage, disasters are one of the global problems that most concern the international community. However, and in spite of the efforts made by many health systems, the reduction of vulnerabilities and the lack of strategies to avoid or minimize risks have not received enough attention yet. As Cuba is located in an area of permanent danger of disasters, its health sector has accumulated considerable experience in the management of risks and in the assurance of less risky future scenarios, with active participation of the community and a planned and organized process to address the impact of climate change. This paper summarizes some of these experiences and describes the dangers, vulnerabilities, and risks of disasters in Cuba, its Civil Defense System, and planning and organization in the health sector for disaster reduction, as well as the main effects and challenges of climate change in the health system. Lessons learned and good practices support the key role of human resources to reduce vulnerabilities; the greatest challenges are to avoid or minimize risks, to advance research, to train professionals for climate change, and to optimize the organization of health systems and services in the country.}, }
@article {pmid31092905, year = {2019}, author = {Hutchins, DA and Jansson, JK and Remais, JV and Rich, VI and Singh, BK and Trivedi, P}, title = {Climate change microbiology - problems and perspectives.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {391-396}, doi = {10.1038/s41579-019-0178-5}, pmid = {31092905}, issn = {1740-1534}, abstract = {The signs of climate change are undeniable, and the inevitable impact for Earth and all its inhabitants is a serious concern. Ice is melting, sea levels are rising, biodiversity is declining, precipitation has increased, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases are alarmingly high, and extreme weather conditions are becoming increasingly common. But what role do microorganisms have in this global challenge? In this Viewpoint article, several experts in the field discuss the microbial contributions to climate change and consider the effects of global warming, extreme weather, flooding and other consequences of climate change on microbial communities in the ocean and soil, on host-microbiota interactions and on the global burden of infectious diseases and ecosystem processes, and they explore open questions and research needs.}, }
@article {pmid31091494, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, Q and Zhang, X and Almendinger, JE and Huang, M and Chen, X and Leng, G and Zhou, Y and Zhao, K and Asrar, GR and Li, X}, title = {Climate change will pose challenges to water quality management in the st. Croix River basin.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {251}, number = {}, pages = {302-311}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.04.129}, pmid = {31091494}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Responses of streamflow and nutrient export to changing climate conditions should be investigated for effective water quality management and pollution control. Using downscaled climate projections and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we projected future streamflow, sediment export, and riverine nutrient export in the St. Croix River Basin (SCRB) during 2020-2099. Results show substantial increases in riverine water, sediment, and nutrient load under future climate conditions, particularly under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Intensified water cycling and enhanced nutrient export will pose challenges to water quality management and affect multiple Best Management Practices (BMPs) efforts, which are aimed at reducing nutrient loads in SCRB. In addition to the physical impacts of climate change on terrestrial hydrology, our analyses demonstrate significant reductions in ET under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Changes in plant physiology induced by climate change may markedly affect water cycling and associated sediment and nutrient export. Results of this study highlight the importance of examining climate change impacts on water and nutrient delivery for effective watershed management.}, }
@article {pmid31089453, year = {2019}, author = {Pawankar, R}, title = {Climate change, air pollution, and biodiversity in Asia Pacific: impact on allergic diseases.}, journal = {Asia Pacific allergy}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {e11}, doi = {10.5415/apallergy.2019.9.e11}, pmid = {31089453}, issn = {2233-8276}, }
@article {pmid31088668, year = {2019}, author = {Deviatkin, I and Lyu, L and Chen, S and Havukainen, J and Wang, F and Horttanainen, M and Mänttäri, M}, title = {Technical implications and global warming potential of recovering nitrogen released during continuous thermal drying of sewage sludge.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {90}, number = {}, pages = {132-140}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2019.04.031}, pmid = {31088668}, issn = {1879-2456}, abstract = {Thermal drying and consequent incineration of sewage sludge result in an absolute loss of an important macronutrient - nitrogen. To fulfill the growing food demand, humanity relies more on industrial fixation of nitrogen, primarily via the Haber-Bosch process. The present paper examines the nitrogen release during continuous thermal drying of municipal sewage sludge and its consequent recovery for fertilization. Furthermore, the possibility of nitrogen recovery from condensate is assessed. Finally, the study assesses the global warming potential of the proposed nitrogen recovery system and compares it with the baseline system manufacturing fertilizers from industrially fixed nitrogen. The results of the drying experiments showed that 0.73-1.03 g N-NH3 kg-1 total solids of sewage sludge was released to off-gases during its continuous thermal drying under 160 °C, which corresponds to 41-58% of ionized nitrogen content in raw sewage sludge subjected to thermal drying. The global warming potential of the nitrogen recovery was 28% lower compared to that of the commercial fertilizer production of equivalent properties: 4.1 kg CO2-Equiv. kg-1 N versus 5.7 kg CO2-Equiv. kg-1 N. Still, the sensitivity analysis showed that the results might traverse and lead to a higher global warming potential of 6.2 kg CO2-Equiv. during the nitrogen recovery process under certain process parameters.}, }
@article {pmid31087444, year = {2019}, author = {Shilt-Moody, N and Tsai, E}, title = {Turning the tide: The shift to climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of healthcare risk management : the journal of the American Society for Healthcare Risk Management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jhrm.21365}, pmid = {31087444}, issn = {2040-0861}, abstract = {In the United States, a growing number of companies are taking progressive steps to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Already, more than half of all Fortune 100 companies have announced clean energy targets, signaling climate change risk reduction is becoming a top priority. Climate change is not without controversy, yet it is a real business concern among corporate executives and health care leaders alike. From fears stoked by devastating wildfires in California to a rising tide of financial hardships due to hurricane flooding in the Southeast, it seems no region is immune to Mother Nature's growing cost to business. This report addresses how health care leaders are approaching climate change initiatives across the country by examining research articles, key opinion leaders, and health care organizations on the bleeding edge of climate change reduction. In an already complex industry, health care leaders have a special responsibility to do no harm to the patients they serve and a financial responsibility to drive monetary returns for invested stakeholders. Significant cost savings, long-term risk reduction, and improved population health are a few of the benefits health care organizations around the country can gain from building a sound climate change mitigation strategy.}, }
@article {pmid31086383, year = {2019}, author = {Ramachandran, A and Palanivelu, K and Mudgal, BV and Jeganathan, A and Guganesh, S and Abinaya, B and Elangovan, A}, title = {Climate change impact on fluvial flooding in the Indian sub-basin: A case study on the Adyar sub-basin.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0216461}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0216461}, pmid = {31086383}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Flooding is one of the most disastrous global hazards, which has been occurring more frequently in recent times. It is observed that climate change is likely to increase the intensity and the frequency of floods and river basins have become more vulnerable to fluvial flooding. In this study, the impact of climate change on fluvial flooding was analyzed over the Adyar sub-basin. This study applied statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data in a CMIP5 dataset of IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). Based on the performance to simulate the observed climate, four GCMs, namely, cesm1-cam5, mpi-esm-mr, ncar-ccsm4, and bnu-esm, for RCP 4.5 were selected for projections of the future scenario. The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for the past and future scenarios were derived from the IMD-observed and GCM-projected rainfall data. Integrated flood modeling was performed with hydrologic (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (HEC-RAS) models. Finally, in order to visualize the inundation areas according to the future climate projection, flood inundation maps were prepared geospatially using the ArcGIS software. For the 100-year return period, the results predict that the peak discharge for the future climate scenario would increase by 34.3%-91.9% as compared to the present climate scenario. Similarly, the future projections show an increase in the flooded area ranging from 12.6% to 26.4% based on GCMs. This simulation helps in understanding the flood risk over the Adyar sub-basin under the changing climate and the requirement for the regulation of developmental activities over the flood-prone areas.}, }
@article {pmid31086357, year = {2019}, author = {Maibach, EW and Sarfaty, M and Mitchell, M and Gould, R}, title = {Limiting global warming to 1.5 to 2.0°C-A unique and necessary role for health professionals.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {e1002804}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002804}, pmid = {31086357}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {In an Editorial, Edward Maibach and colleagues discuss the important role of health professionals in future responses to threats of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31085651, year = {2019}, author = {Kätelhön, A and Meys, R and Deutz, S and Suh, S and Bardow, A}, title = {Climate change mitigation potential of carbon capture and utilization in the chemical industry.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1821029116}, pmid = {31085651}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Chemical production is set to become the single largest driver of global oil consumption by 2030. To reduce oil consumption and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, carbon dioxide can be captured from stacks or air and utilized as alternative carbon source for chemicals. Here, we show that carbon capture and utilization (CCU) has the technical potential to decouple chemical production from fossil resources, reducing annual GHG emissions by up to 3.5 Gt CO2-eq in 2030. Exploiting this potential, however, requires more than 18.1 PWh of low-carbon electricity, corresponding to 55% of the projected global electricity production in 2030. Most large-scale CCU technologies are found to be less efficient in reducing GHG emissions per unit low-carbon electricity when benchmarked to power-to-X efficiencies reported for other large-scale applications including electro-mobility (e-mobility) and heat pumps. Once and where these other demands are satisfied, CCU in the chemical industry could efficiently contribute to climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid31082605, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, K and Zhang, H and Han, X and Qiu, W}, title = {Sources and burial fluxes of sedimentary organic carbon in the northern Bering Sea and the northern Chukchi Sea in response to global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {679}, number = {}, pages = {97-105}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.374}, pmid = {31082605}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Arctic and subarctic seas are the major CO2 sink areas on earth. In this study, the vertical variation characteristics of organic carbon, total nitrogen and their ratio (Corg/Nt), stable isotopes δ13C and δ15N, and BIT (branched and isoprenoid tetraether) index of GDGTs (glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) in combination with 210Pb-dating were used to analyze the changes in the marine and terrestrial sources of organic carbon in the northern Bering Sea (site 1), western Beaufort Sea slope (site 2) and northern Chukchi Sea (site 3). Organic carbon burial fluxes (OCBF) in the context of global warming were also explored at sites 1 and 3. The results showed that organic matter in these sediments were a mixed input of marine and terrestrial sources, and the BIT index and δ13C of site 2 suggested that the terrestrial soil organic matter was dominant. Based on a combination of 210Pb dating and Corg, the sedimentary OCBF at site 1 was 2.29-3.65 mg cm-2 y-1, and at site 3 was 0.00-0.41 mg cm-2 y-1. The temperature anomalies and sea ice changes in the Arctic in the past 100 years were compared with the burial fluxes of the terrestrial organic carbon. At site 1, the results indicated that fast melting of seasonal sea ice led to earlier arrival of ice algae bloom, enhanced zooplankton feeding and reduced carbon burial from 1947 to 2010, and the sudden increase in carbon burial after 2010 was attributed to an increase in primary productivity and terrestrial organic matter input due to an accelerated melting of sea ice. There was a smaller change in marine organic carbon content in site 3, but OCBF increased after a pre-1965 decrease, mainly controlled by terrestrial organic matter input associated with temperature rising and sea ice melting during recent decades.}, }
@article {pmid31080300, year = {2017}, author = {Niraula, R and Meixner, T and Dominguez, F and Rodell, M and Ajami, H and Gochis, D and Castro, C}, title = {How might recharge change under projected climate change in western US?.}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {44}, number = {20}, pages = {10407-10418}, doi = {10.1002/2017GL075421}, pmid = {31080300}, issn = {0094-8276}, abstract = {Although groundwater is a major resource of water in the western US, little research has been done on the impacts of climate change on groundwater storage and recharge in the West. Here we assess the impact of projected changes in climate on groundwater recharge in the near (2021-2050) and far (2071-2100) future across the western US. Recharge is expected to decrease slightly (highly certain) in the West (-1.6%) and Southwest (-2.9%) regions in the near future and decrease considerably (highly certain) in the South region (-10.6%) in the far future. The Northern Rockies region is expected to get more recharge (highly certain) in both the near (+5.0%) and far (+9.0%) future. In general, southern portions of the western US are expected to get less recharge in the future and northern portions will get more. This study also shows that climate change interacts with land surface properties to affect the amount of recharge that occurs in the future.}, }
@article {pmid31077926, year = {2019}, author = {Farjad, B and Gupta, A and Sartipizadeh, H and Cannon, AJ}, title = {A novel approach for selecting extreme climate change scenarios for climate change impact studies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {678}, number = {}, pages = {476-485}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.218}, pmid = {31077926}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {One of the main challenges in climate change impact assessment studies is selecting climate change scenarios. By focusing on selecting projected extremes in a high dimensional space, one is confronted with the shrinkage of ensemble size while preserving the projection spread. This study proposes a novel integrated computational geometry algorithm to select extreme climate change scenarios in a high dimensional space. A set of 12 prominent climate extremes indices were used (as input to the algorithm) out of the 27 core indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization's Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The ETCCDI indices were projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the period of 2081-2100 relative to the baseline period 1986-2005. The approach enables the user to shrink the initial selected ensemble into smaller sub-ensembles while still capturing a wide range of simulated changes for selected climatological variables. The conservation of the projection spread was evaluated using a robust validation method when the spread error was calculated for each simulation run. The developed algorithm was applied to three different regions where the geographical domain was narrowed-down from sub-continental (western North America) to its regional (Alberta, Canada), and local (Athabasca River basin, Alberta, Canada) subdomains. Results revealed that selected extreme scenarios can vary from one region to another within the same geographical domain in response to the spatial variation in climatic regime.}, }
@article {pmid31075953, year = {2019}, author = {Biasi, R and Brunori, E and Ferrara, C and Salvati, L}, title = {Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Phenology and Quality Traits of Vitis vinifera L.: The Contribution of Local Knowledge.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants8050121}, pmid = {31075953}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {Landscape 4.0 - food, wellbeing and environment//Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research, DIBAF-Department of University of Tuscia and Umbria region (Rural Development Program 2014-2020 - Measure 16. Cooperation, Sub-Measure 16.2.2/ ; }, abstract = {Developing adaptation strategies in Vitis vinifera, a crop sensitive to climate change, is crucial for resilience of traditional viticultural systems, especially in climate-vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean basin. A progressive warming is demonstrated to alter the geographical distribution of grapevine, reducing land capability for typical grapes and vine productions in most Southern European districts traditionally specialized in tree crops. Grapevine growth and reproduction under climate change require a continuous monitoring to adapt agronomic practices and strategies to global change. The present study illustrates an empirical approach grounded on a set of bio-physical indicators assessing the genotype-related response to climate variation. This approach was tested in Umbria, central Italy, to verify the response of some major international and local grapevine varieties to climate variation during a relatively long time interval (1995-2015). Long-term data for ripening time and berry quality collected in the study area were correlated to representative bioclimatic indices including Winkler, Huglin, and Cool night indicators. Results of this study highlighted the increase of air temperature (reflecting the inherent growth in thermal availability for maturation) and the alteration of precipitation patterns toward more intense precipitation. Climate variability exerted distinctive impacts on grapevine phenology depending on the related genotype. Empirical findings underline the usefulness of a permanent field monitoring of the relationship between selected climate variables and grape ripening with the aim to develop adaptive viticultural practices at farm's scale.}, }
@article {pmid31075527, year = {2019}, author = {de la Hoz, CF and Ramos, E and Puente, A and Juanes, JA}, title = {Climate change induced range shifts in seaweeds distributions in Europe.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {148}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.04.012}, pmid = {31075527}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {There are evidences of how climate change is affecting seaweeds distribution and the ecosystems services they provide. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these impacts when managing marine areas. One of the most applied tools in recent years to deal with this are species distribution models, however there are still some challenges to solve, such as the inclusion of hydrodynamic predictors and the application of effective, transferable and user-oriented methodologies. Five species (Saccorhiza polyschides, Gelidium spinosum, Sargassum muticum, Pelvetia canaliculata and Cystoseira baccata) in Europe and 15 variables were considered. Nine of them were projected to the RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-term (2040-2069) and the long term (2070-2099). Algorithms for each species were applied to generate models that were assessed by comparison of probabilities and observations (area under the curve, true skill statistics, Boyce index, sensitivity, correct classification rate), niches overlap (Schoener's D, Hellinger's I), geographical similarity (interquartile range) and ecological realism. Models built demonstrated very good predictive accuracy and sensitivity, without overfitting risk. A medium overlap in the historical and RCPs environmental conditions were obtained, therefore the models can be considered transferable and results accurate because only some isolated points were detected as outliers, corresponding to low probabilities. The areas of S. polyschides and G. spinosum have been identified to be dramatically reduced, meanwhile S. muticum and C. baccata were predicted to expand their range. P. canaliculata was expected to keep its sites of presence but with a decrease in its probability of occurrence. For all species it was remarkable the importance of hydrodynamic variables and parameters representing extreme conditions. Spatially predictions of the potential species and areas at risk are decisive for defining management strategies and resource allocation. The performance and usefulness of the approach applied in this study have been demonstrated for algae with different ecological requirements (from upper littoral to subtidal) and distributional patterns (native and invasive), therefore results can be used by marine planners with different goals: marine protected areas designation, monitoring efforts guiding, invasions risk assessment or aquaculture facilities zonation.}, }
@article {pmid31074105, year = {2019}, author = {Price, SJ and Leung, WTM and Owen, CJ and Puschendorf, R and Sergeant, C and Cunningham, AA and Balloux, F and Garner, TWJ and Nichols, RA}, title = {Effects of historic and projected climate change on the range and impacts of an emerging wildlife disease.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14651}, pmid = {31074105}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NE/M000338/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; NE/M000591/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; NE/M00080X/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {The global trend of increasing environmental temperatures is often predicted to result in more severe disease epidemics. However, unambiguous evidence that temperature is a driver of epidemics is largely lacking, because it is demanding to demonstrate its role among the complex interactions between hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. Here, we apply a three-pronged approach to understand the effects of temperature on ranavirus epidemics in UK common frogs, combining in vitro, in vivo, and field studies. Each approach suggests that higher temperatures drive increasing severity of epidemics. In wild populations, ranavirosis incidents were more frequent and more severe at higher temperatures, and their frequency increased through a period of historic warming in the 1990s. Laboratory experiments using cell culture and whole animal models showed that higher temperature increased ranavirus propagation, disease incidence, and mortality rate. These results, combined with climate projections, predict severe ranavirosis outbreaks will occur over wider areas and an extended season, possibly affecting larval recruitment. Since ranaviruses affect a variety of ectothermic hosts (amphibians, reptiles, and fish), wider ecological damage could occur. Our three complementary lines of evidence present a clear case for direct environmental modulation of these epidemics and suggest management options to protect species from disease.}, }
@article {pmid31073131, year = {2019}, author = {Riris, P and Arroyo-Kalin, M}, title = {Widespread population decline in South America correlates with mid-Holocene climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {6850}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-43086-w}, pmid = {31073131}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {PF2\180065//British Academy/ ; }, abstract = {Quantifying the impacts of climate change on prehistoric demography is crucial for understanding the adaptive pathways taken by human populations. Archaeologists across South America have pointed to patterns of regional abandonment during the Middle Holocene (8200 to 4200 cal BP) as evidence of sensitivity to shifts in hydroclimate over this period. We develop a unified approach to investigate demography and climate in South America and aim to clarify the extent to which evidence of local anthropic responses can be generalised to large-scale trends. We achieve this by integrating archaeological radiocarbon data and palaeoclimatic time series to show that population decline occurred coeval with the transition to the initial mid-Holocene across South America. Through the analysis of radiocarbon dates with Monte Carlo methods, we find multiple, sustained phases of downturn associated to periods of high climatic variability. A likely driver of the duration and severity of demographic turnover is the frequency of exceptional climatic events, rather than the absolute magnitude of change. Unpredictable levels of tropical precipitation had sustained negative impacts on pre-Columbian populations lasting until at least 6000 cal BP, after which recovery is evident. Our results support the inference that a demographic regime shift in the second half of the Middle Holocene were coeval with cultural practices surrounding Neotropical plant management and early cultivation, possibly acting as buffers when the wild resource base was in flux.}, }
@article {pmid31071928, year = {2019}, author = {Chang, HP and Ma, CC and Chen, HS}, title = {Climate Change and Consumer's Attitude toward Insect Food.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091606}, pmid = {31071928}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Given the influence of rising environmental awareness, food systems and security are receiving increasing international attention. Previous studies have discussed the acceptance of insect foods but have been primarily conducted in a European context. Hence, their results cannot be applied to Taiwanese consumers. Regarding this, our study is centered on the theory of planned behavior and considers environmental concern and food neophobia to discuss the effects of consumer attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control on the purchase intention toward insect food. We used purposive sampling to survey questionnaire answers face-to-face in Taichung city, Taiwan. We distributed 408 surveys of which 77.45% were used in this study. The results revealed that consumer attitudes, perceived behavioral control, and food neophobia significantly influence purchase intention, whereas subjective norms and environmental concern did not demonstrate significant relationships with purchase intention. According to these results, we suggest that businesses emphasize consumers' product experience or reduce levels of food neophobia to increase consumer interest in insect foods and improve the acceptability of such foods, thereby increasing purchase intention.}, }
@article {pmid31070715, year = {2019}, author = {Chan, EYY and Ho, JY and Hung, HHY and Liu, S and Lam, HCY}, title = {Health impact of climate change in cities of middle-income countries: the case of China.}, journal = {British medical bulletin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/bmb/ldz011}, pmid = {31070715}, issn = {1471-8391}, abstract = {Background: This review examines the human health impact of climate change in China. Through reviewing available research findings under four major climate change phenomena, namely extreme temperature, altered rainfall pattern, rise of sea level and extreme weather events, relevant implications for other middle-income population with similar contexts will be synthesized.<br><br>Sources of data: Sources of data included bilingual peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2018 in PubMed, Google Scholar and China Academic Journals Full-text Database.<br><br>Areas of agreement: The impact of temperature on mortality outcomes was the most extensively studied, with the strongest cause-specific mortality risks between temperature and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. The geographical focuses of the studies indicated variations in health risks and impacts of different climate change phenomena across the country.<br><br>Areas of controversy: While rainfall-related studies predominantly focus on its impact on infectious and vector-borne diseases, consistent associations were not often found.<br><br>Growing points: Mental health outcomes of climate change had been gaining increasing attention, particularly in the context of extreme weather events. The number of projection studies on the long-term impact had been growing.<br><br>Areas timely for developing research: The lack of studies on the health implications of rising sea levels and on comorbidity and injury outcomes warrants immediate attention. Evidence is needed to understand health impacts on vulnerable populations living in growing urbanized cities and urban enclaves, in particular migrant workers. Location-specific climate-health outcome thresholds (such as temperature-mortality threshold) will be needed to support evidence-based clinical management plans and health impact mitigation strategies to protect vulnerable communities.}, }
@article {pmid31070165, year = {2019}, author = {Dhiman, RC and Singh, P and Yadav, Y and Saraswat, S and Kumar, G and Singh, RK and Ojha, VP and Joshi, BC and Singh, P}, title = {Preparedness for malaria elimination in the wake of climate change in the State of Uttarakhand (India).}, journal = {Journal of vector borne diseases}, volume = {56}, number = {1}, pages = {46-52}, doi = {10.4103/0972-9062.257774}, pmid = {31070165}, issn = {0972-9062}, abstract = {Background &amp; objectives: Climate change is an emerging issue particularly in the context of vector-borne diseases. A study was undertaken in Nainital and Almora districts of Uttarakhand to provide evidences of changing climatic conditions, abundance of vectors, and knocking of malaria in hilly areas.<br><br>Material and methods: Longitudinal data on temperature and relative humidity were procured from Tussar Silk Centre, Bhimtal, India as well as generated using HOBO device. Monthly density of malaria vectors, their positivity for sporozoite proteins of malaria parasite and fever surveys were conducted as per the standard procedures from 2010 to 2013. Epidemiological data were procured from the State Programme Officer of Uttarakhand state.<br><br>Results: It was found that the temperature has increased since 1990 resulting in extension in windows of malaria transmission, temporal distribution as well as man hour density of Anopheles culicifacies and An. fluviatilis in hilly districts of Uttarakhand state. Both the vectors were found in high density up to a maximum man hour density of 110 (An. culicifacies) and 69 (An. fluviatilis) as compared to 32 and 33, respectively during 1998. The field collected vector species were also found positive for sporozoite proteins of malaria parasites in the month of October and November. Evidence of occurrence of malaria cases was also found in areas hitherto free from malaria.<br><br>The findings reveal that Himalayan region needs attention to strengthen surveillance for malaria to identify emerging new foci of malaria transmission in view of climate change. Health education to communities about preventive measures to contain breeding of vectors and seeking timely treatment should be imparted so as to achieve the goal of malaria elimination in category-1 in the first instance.}, }
@article {pmid31069721, year = {2019}, author = {Özelsel, TJ and Sondekoppam, RV and Buro, K}, title = {The future is now-it's time to rethink the application of the Global Warming Potential to anesthesia.}, journal = {Canadian journal of anaesthesia = Journal canadien d'anesthesie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s12630-019-01385-w}, pmid = {31069721}, issn = {1496-8975}, }
@article {pmid31068226, year = {2019}, author = {González-Rete, B and Salazar-Schettino, PM and Bucio-Torres, MI and Córdoba-Aguilar, A and Cabrera-Bravo, M}, title = {Activity of the prophenoloxidase system and survival of triatomines infected with different Trypanosoma cruzi strains under different temperatures: understanding Chagas disease in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {219}, doi = {10.1186/s13071-019-3477-9}, pmid = {31068226}, issn = {1756-3305}, support = {IN216118//Programa de Apoyo a Proyectos de Investigación e Innovación Tecnológica (PAPIIT)/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Little is known about how human disease vectors will modify their life history patterns and survival capacity as a result of climate change. One case is that of Chagas disease, which has triatomine bugs and Trypanosoma cruzi as vectors and parasite, respectively. This work aimed to determine: (i) the activity of the prophenoloxidase system (prophenoloxidase and phenoloxidase activity, two indicators of immune ability) in three intestine regions (anterior midgut, posterior midgutand rectum) of the triatomine bug Meccus pallidipennis under three temperature conditions (20 °C, 30 °C and 34 °C) against two T. cruzi strains [ITRI/MX/14/CHIL (Chilpancingo) and ITRI/MX/12/MOR (Morelos)], and (ii) whether vector survival varies under these three temperatures after infection by these T. cruzi strains.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results indicate that prophenoloxidase activity was lower at higher temperatures, that the level of prophenoloxidase activity elicited by each strain was different (higher in Chilpancingo than in Morelos strains), and that prophenoloxidase activity was more intense in the anterior midgut than in the posterior midgut or rectum. Survival rates were lower in insects maintained at higher temperatures and infected by Chilpancingo strains.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that climate change could lead to lower prophenoloxidase activity and survival rates in triatomines when infected with different T. cruzi strains, which could reduce the vector capacity of M. pallidipennis.}, }
@article {pmid31067153, year = {2019}, author = {Gibson, K and Haslam, N and Kaplan, I}, title = {Distressing encounters in the context of climate change: Idioms of distress, determinants, and responses to distress in Tuvalu.}, journal = {Transcultural psychiatry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1363461519847057}, doi = {10.1177/1363461519847057}, pmid = {31067153}, issn = {1461-7471}, abstract = {Across the globe there is a critical need for culturally informed and locally valid approaches to mental health assessment and intervention, particularly among disadvantaged and marginalized populations. To be optimally effective, such approaches must be informed by a sound understanding of locally relevant idioms of distress and its determinants, including those caused or exacerbated by global power disparities and structural inequities. Climate change, arising due to anthropogenic sources located predominantly in industrialized nations, is one potential determinant of distress having disproportionate adverse impacts on already marginalized populations. The present study formed part of a broader project examining the intersections of culture, climate change, and distress in the Polynesian nation of Tuvalu - a focal point of global concern over the human costs of climate change. The study explored determinants and idioms of distress and culturally prescribed responses to coping with distress. Results are based on fieldwork conducted in 2015 entailing semi-structured interviews with 16 key informants and 23 lay residents of Funafuti atoll, recruited using maximal variation purposive sampling. Findings are examined in consideration of the unfolding impacts of climate change and the threat it portends for the future, both of which were identified as salient determinants of distress, in keeping with theorized relationships between climate change and mental health. The study underscores the necessity of attending to the relationships between global forces, local cultures, and individual experiences of distress, as efforts to provide access to culturally informed social and mental health services expand globally.}, }
@article {pmid31066653, year = {2019}, author = {Kipp, A and Cunsolo, A and Gillis, D and Sawatzky, A and Harper, SL}, title = {The need for community-led, integrated and innovative monitoring programmes when responding to the health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {78}, number = {2}, pages = {1517581}, doi = {10.1080/22423982.2018.1517581}, pmid = {31066653}, issn = {2242-3982}, abstract = {In Northern Canada, climate change has led to many acute and interrelated health and environmental impacts experienced among Inuit populations. Community-based monitoring, in which community members participate in monitoring initiatives using various forms of technology, is a key strategy increasingly used to detect, monitor and respond to climate change impacts. To better understand the landscape of existing environmental and health monitoring programmes mobilising different technologies and operating in the North we conducted a review that used environmental scan methodologies to explore and contextualise these programmes. We consulted with academic researchers with experience in community-led monitoring, conducted systematic searches of grey and peer-reviewed literature, and conducted a secondary search for environment-health mobile-phone applications. Following specific criteria, we identified 18 monitoring programmes using information and communication technologies in the North, and three global monitoring mobile-phone applications, which cumulatively monitored 74 environment and health indicators. Several themes emerged, including the need for: (1) community leadership, (2) indicators of environment and/or human health and (3) innovative technology. This synthesis supports the development of community-led, environment-health monitoring programmes that use innovative technology to monitor and share information related to the health implications of climate change in and around Indigenous communities throughout the Circumpolar North.}, }
@article {pmid31064134, year = {2019}, author = {Hayes, K and Berry, P and Ebi, KL}, title = {Factors Influencing the Mental Health Consequences of Climate Change in Canada.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091583}, pmid = {31064134}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate change is increasing risks to the mental health of Canadians. Impacts from a changing climate may outstrip the ability of Canadians and their health-sustaining institutions to adapt effectively and could increase poor mental health outcomes, particularly amongst those most marginalized in society. A scoping review of literature published during 2000-2017 explored risks, impacts, and vulnerabilities related to climate change and mental health. In this commentary, the authors present a new assessment of evidence from this scoping review and highlight factors that influence the capacity to adapt to the mental health consequences of a changing climate. Findings from this assessment reveal eleven key factors that influence the capacity to adapt: social capital; sense of community; government assistance; access to resources; community preparedness; intersectoral/transdisciplinary collaboration; vulnerability and adaptation assessments; communication and outreach; mental health literacy; and culturally relevant resources. Attention to these factors by Canadian decision makers can support proactive and effective management of the mental health consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31064099, year = {2019}, author = {Bartlow, AW and Manore, C and Xu, C and Kaufeld, KA and Del Valle, S and Ziemann, A and Fairchild, G and Fair, JM}, title = {Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment.}, journal = {Veterinary sciences}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/vetsci6020040}, pmid = {31064099}, issn = {2306-7381}, support = {89233218CNA000001//United States Department of Energy/ ; }, abstract = {Infectious diseases are changing due to the environment and altered interactions among hosts, reservoirs, vectors, and pathogens. This is particularly true for zoonotic diseases that infect humans, agricultural animals, and wildlife. Within the subset of zoonoses, vector-borne pathogens are changing more rapidly with climate change, and have a complex epidemiology, which may allow them to take advantage of a changing environment. Most mosquito-borne infectious diseases are transmitted by mosquitoes in three genera: Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex, and the expansion of these genera is well documented. There is an urgent need to study vector-borne diseases in response to climate change and to produce a generalizable approach capable of generating risk maps and forecasting outbreaks. Here, we provide a strategy for coupling climate and epidemiological models for zoonotic infectious diseases. We discuss the complexity and challenges of data and model fusion, baseline requirements for data, and animal and human population movement. Disease forecasting needs significant investment to build the infrastructure necessary to collect data about the environment, vectors, and hosts at all spatial and temporal resolutions. These investments can contribute to building a modeling community around the globe to support public health officials so as to reduce disease burden through forecasts with quantified uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid31063502, year = {2019}, author = {Kosaka, T and Nakajima, Y and Ishii, A and Yamashita, M and Yoshida, S and Murata, M and Kato, K and Shiromaru, Y and Kato, S and Kanasaki, Y and Yoshikawa, H and Matsutani, M and Thanonkeo, P and Yamada, M}, title = {Capacity for survival in global warming: Adaptation of mesophiles to the temperature upper limit.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0215614}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0215614}, pmid = {31063502}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommends keeping the increase in temperature to less than a two-degree increase by the end of the century, but the direct impact of global warming on ecosystems including microbes has not been investigated. Here we performed thermal adaptation of two species and three strains of mesophilic microbes for improvement of the survival upper limit of temperature, and the improvement was evaluated by a newly developed method. To understand the limitation and variation of thermal adaptation, experiments with mutators and by multiple cultures were performed. The results of experiments including genome sequencing and analysis of the characteristics of mutants suggest that these microbes bear a genomic potential to endure a 2-3°C rise in temperature but possess a limited variation of strategies for thermal adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31062666, year = {2019}, author = {Cauchi, JP and Correa-Velez, I and Bambrick, H}, title = {Climate change, food security and health in Kiribati: a narrative review of the literature.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1603683}, doi = {10.1080/16549716.2019.1603683}, pmid = {31062666}, issn = {1654-9880}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is recognised as having a 'multiplier effect' on food insecurity and adverse health experiences of communities in the Pacific region. Islands are especially at risk due to their limited land availability, population pressures and, in the case of atolls, their low-lying topography making them vulnerable to sea level rise.<br><br>AIM: This review examines the literature describing the relationship between climate change, food security and health in Kiribati.<br><br>METHOD: A narrative review was conducted, looking at both peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed literature available online from 1 January 2008 to 14 August 2018, the search date. Sources from three databases of peer-reviewed literature, Google and additional sources from reference lists were included in the review.<br><br>RESULTS: Thirty-seven items were included in this review. These show climate change is having a noticeable impact on food security and health in Kiribati. Four themes were identified from the literature that provide different perspectives to the problem outlined.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change is a pressing concern for the government of Kiribati and communities alike, and yet the problem is worsening, not improving. Further research is required to look at effective policies and cultural perspectives to address this problem.}, }
@article {pmid31061690, year = {2019}, author = {Mashizha, TM}, title = {Adapting to climate change: Reflections of peasant farmers in Mashonaland West Province of Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {571}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.571}, pmid = {31061690}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is projected to have negative impacts on agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa and this is likely to continue for decades, unless adaptation measures are implemented. The changing climate is a global challenge to sustainable livelihoods and economic development. Peasant farmers in Zimbabwe depend entirely on rain-fed agriculture, a situation that makes agriculture and rural livelihoods vulnerable to climate change. This paper discusses the findings of the study carried out in the Zvimba District amongst peasant farmers on their knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies. Semi-structured interviews, observations and document analysis were used as methodologies for data collection for the study. Purposeful sampling technique was applied to 40 peasant farmers. Qualitative data from interviews and focus group discussion were analysed using context analysis. Households acknowledged that rainfall amount has decreased over the last 30 years. Such changes have reduced agricultural productivity, and in response, communities have developed multiple adaptation strategies such as harnessing social capital, crop and livelihood diversification, engaging in small businesses and water harvesting for livestock keeping. The study concludes that there is a need to recognise the validity of indigenous knowledge and an inventory should be created for future use. The paper notes that diversification of adaptive strategies is vital for sustainable livelihood in a changing climate.<br><br>Keywords: climate change; adaptation; Zimbabwe; livelihood diversification.}, }
@article {pmid31061126, year = {2019}, author = {Razgour, O and Forester, B and Taggart, JB and Bekaert, M and Juste, J and Ibáñez, C and Puechmaille, SJ and Novella-Fernandez, R and Alberdi, A and Manel, S}, title = {Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1820663116}, pmid = {31061126}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species' future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population's adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.}, }
@article {pmid31058749, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {&quot;How Can Climate Change Impact the Workplace and Worker Health?&quot; Part 6: Operational Support-Related Responsibilities of Occupational and Environmental Medicine Experts to the Employer in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000001621}, pmid = {31058749}, issn = {1536-5948}, }
@article {pmid31058393, year = {2019}, author = {Wolf, KKE and Romanelli, E and Rost, B and John, U and Collins, S and Weigand, H and Hoppe, CJM}, title = {Company matters: The presence of other genotypes alters traits and intraspecific selection in an Arctic diatom under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14675}, pmid = {31058393}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Arctic phytoplankton and their response to future conditions shape one of the most rapidly changing ecosystems on the planet. We tested how much the phenotypic responses of strains from an Arctic diatom population diverge and whether the physiology and intraspecific composition of multi-strain populations differ from expectations based on single strain traits. To this end, we conducted incubation experiments with the diatom Thalassiosira hyalina under present-day and future temperature and pCO2 treatments. Six fresh isolates from the same Svalbard population were incubated as mono- and multi-strain cultures. For the first time, we were able to closely follow intraspecific selection within an artificial population using microsatellites and allele-specific quantitative PCR. Our results show not only that there is substantial variation in how strains of the same species cope with the tested environments, but also that changes in genotype composition, production rates and cellular quotas in the multi-strain cultures are not predictable from monoculture performance. Nevertheless, the physiological responses as well as strain composition of the artificial populations were highly reproducible within each environment. Interestingly, we only detected significant strain sorting in those populations exposed to the future treatment. This study illustrates that the genetic composition of populations can change on very short timescales through selection from the intraspecific standing stock, indicating the potential for rapid population level adaptation to climate change. We further show that individuals adjust their phenotype not only in response to their physico-chemical, but also to their biological surroundings. Such intraspecific interactions need to be understood in order to realistically predict ecosystem responses to global change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31057586, year = {2019}, author = {Gallego-Tévar, B and Infante-Izquierdo, MD and Figueroa, E and Nieva, FJJ and Muñoz-Rodríguez, AF and Grewell, BJ and Castillo, JM}, title = {Some Like It Hot: Maternal-Switching With Climate Change Modifies Formation of Invasive Spartina Hybrids.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {484}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00484}, pmid = {31057586}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change can induce temporary, spatial or behavioral changes in species, so that only some species can adapt to the new climatic conditions. In the case of invasive species, it is expected that they will be promoted in a context of global change, given their high tolerance to environmental factors and phenotypic plasticity. Once in the invaded range, these species can hybridize with native species thus introducing their genotype in the native biota. However, the effects that climate change will have on this process of invasion by hybridization remain unclear. We evaluated the historical establishment of the reciprocal hybrids between the native Spartina maritima and the invasive S. densiflora in the Gulf of Cadiz (SW Iberian Peninsula) and we related it to climatic changes during the period 1955-2017. Our results showed that, according to their dating based on their rate of lateral expansion rates, the establishment of S. maritima × densiflora and S. densiflora × maritima in the Gulf of Cadiz has occurred in the last two centuries and has been related to changes in air temperature and rainfall during the flowering periods of their parental species, with antagonist impacts on both hybrids. Thus, the hybrid S. densiflora × maritima has been established in years with mild ends of spring and beginning of summer when the flowering of S. maritima lengthened and its pollen production was higher, and it coincided with the beginning of the flowering period of S. densiflora. Moreover, the establishment of this hybrid was related to higher spring/summer rainfalls, probably due to the reduction in salinity in middle marshes. However, the hybrid S. maritima × densiflora, was established mainly in warmer spring/summers in which the proportion of pollen:ovule of S. maritima was reduced favoring its pollination by S. densiflora. As a consequence of the promotion of S. maritima × densiflora with climate change, the native and endangered species S. maritima would be threatened, as both taxa share the same habitat and the hybrid shows a remarkably higher competitive potential.}, }
@article {pmid31057569, year = {2019}, author = {De Ollas, C and Morillón, R and Fotopoulos, V and Puértolas, J and Ollitrault, P and Gómez-Cadenas, A and Arbona, V}, title = {Facing Climate Change: Biotechnology of Iconic Mediterranean Woody Crops.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {427}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00427}, pmid = {31057569}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The Mediterranean basin is especially sensitive to the adverse outcomes of climate change and especially to variations in rainfall patterns and the incidence of extremely high temperatures. These two concurring adverse environmental conditions will surely have a detrimental effect on crop performance and productivity that will be particularly severe on woody crops such as citrus, olive and grapevine that define the backbone of traditional Mediterranean agriculture. These woody species have been traditionally selected for traits such as improved fruit yield and quality or alteration in harvesting periods, leaving out traits related to plant field performance. This is currently a crucial aspect due to the progressive and imminent effects of global climate change. Although complete genome sequence exists for sweet orange (Citrus sinensis) and clementine (Citrus clementina), olive tree (Olea europaea) and grapevine (Vitis vinifera), the development of biotechnological tools to improve stress tolerance still relies on the study of the available genetic resources including interspecific hybrids, naturally occurring (or induced) polyploids and wild relatives under field conditions. To this respect, post-genomic era studies including transcriptomics, metabolomics and proteomics provide a wide and unbiased view of plant physiology and biochemistry under adverse environmental conditions that, along with high-throughput phenotyping, could contribute to the characterization of plant genotypes exhibiting physiological and/or genetic traits that are correlated to abiotic stress tolerance. The ultimate goal of precision agriculture is to improve crop productivity, in terms of yield and quality, making a sustainable use of land and water resources under adverse environmental conditions using all available biotechnological tools and high-throughput phenotyping. This review focuses on the current state-of-the-art of biotechnological tools such as high throughput -omics and phenotyping on grapevine, citrus and olive and their contribution to plant breeding programs.}, }
@article {pmid31056056, year = {2019}, author = {Bebber, DP}, title = {Climate change effects on Black Sigatoka disease of banana.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1775}, pages = {20180269}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0269}, pmid = {31056056}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Climate change has significantly altered species distributions in the wild and has the potential to affect the interactions between pests and diseases and their human, animal and plant hosts. While several studies have projected changes in disease distributions in the future, responses to historical climate change are poorly understood. Such analyses are required to dissect the relative contributions of climate change, host availability and dispersal to the emergence of pests and diseases. Here, we model the influence of climate change on the most damaging disease of a major tropical food plant, Black Sigatoka disease of banana. Black Sigatoka emerged from Asia in the late twentieth Century and has recently completed its invasion of Latin American and Caribbean banana-growing areas. We parametrize an infection model with published experimental data and drive the model with hourly microclimate data from a global climate reanalysis dataset. We define infection risk as the sum of the number of modelled hourly spore cohorts that infect a leaf over a time interval. The model shows that infection risk has increased by a median of 44.2% across banana-growing areas of Latin America and the Caribbean since the 1960s, due to increasing canopy wetness and improving temperature conditions for the pathogen. Thus, while increasing banana production and global trade have probably facilitated Black Sigatoka establishment and spread, climate change has made the region increasingly conducive for plant infection. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.}, }
@article {pmid31052196, year = {2019}, author = {Gao, D and Xie, M and Chen, X and Wang, T and Zhan, C and Ren, J and Liu, Q}, title = {Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Surface Ozone during Summer in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091528}, pmid = {31052196}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Future climate change can impact ozone concentrations by changing regional meteorological factors related to ozone (O3) pollution. To better understand the variations of meteorological factors and their effects on O3 formation processes under future climate conditions, we model the present and the future meteorology and air quality in summer over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry module (WRF/Chem), which is driven by the outputs of Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). The simulations predict that solar radiation, 2-m air temperature, and wind speed increase in the daytime over most of the YRD region. Absolute humidity and precipitation increase in the north and decrease in the south, while the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) has an opposite change pattern displaying a decrease in the north and an increase in the south. The southerly wind will be strengthened in the daytime. At night, the change patterns of the meteorological factors are similar to the daytime but with small variations. Meanwhile, O3 and its precursors all increase in the north and decrease in the south. The increases of NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOC), and CO are related with the decreases of PBLH and the input effect of stronger southerly wind, while the decreases are attributed to the output effect of the stronger southerly wind. During the daytime, the increase of surface O3 in the north is dominated by the chemical processes related with the increases of solar radiation, air temperature, and O3 precursors. The decrease of surface O3 in the south is mainly caused by the transport process changing with the strengthened southerly wind. At night, the surface O3 changing the amplitude is less than the daytime. The less O3 variations at night can be attributed to an O3 titration reaction with NO, the changes in NOx concentrations, and the increases of nocturnal PBLH. With the aid of H2O2/HNO3, O3 formation in the YRD region is found to be easily affected by NOx in the future. The findings can help to understand the changing trend of O3 in the YRD region and can propose reasonable pollution control policies.}, }
@article {pmid31051384, year = {2019}, author = {Duane, A and Aquilué, N and Canelles, Q and Morán-Ordoñez, A and De Cáceres, M and Brotons, L}, title = {Adapting prescribed burns to future climate change in Mediterranean landscapes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {677}, number = {}, pages = {68-83}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.348}, pmid = {31051384}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Fire regimes are shifting or are expected to do so under global change. Current fire suppression is not able to control all wildfires, and its capability to do so might be compromised under harsher climate conditions. Alternative fire management strategies may allow to counteract predicted fire trends, but we lack quantitative tools to evaluate their potential effectiveness at the landscape scale. Here, we sought to quantify changes in fire regimes induced after the implementation of different fire management strategies. We developed and applied a new version of the model MEDFIRE in Catalonia (Mediterranean region of ~32,000 km2 in NE Spain). We first projected burnt area from 2016 to 2100 resulting from climate change under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario of HadGEM-CC model and under current fire suppression levels. We then evaluated the impacts of four fire management strategies: 'Let it burn', fixed effort of prescribed burning with two different spatial allocations, and adaptive prescribed burning dynamically adjusting efforts according to recent past fires. Results predicted the emergence of novel climates associated with similar barometric configurations to current conditions but with higher temperatures (i.e. hot wind events). These novel climates led to an increase in burnt area, which was partially counteracted by negative fire-vegetation feedbacks. All prescribed burning scenarios decreased the amount of high-intensity fires and extreme fire events. The 'Let it burn' strategy, although less costly, was not able to reduce the extent of high-intensity fires. The adaptive prescribed burning scenario resulted in the most cost-efficient strategy. Our results provide quantitative evidence of fire management effectiveness, and bring to light key insights that could guide the design of fire policies fit for future novel climate conditions. We propose adaptive landscape management focused on the reduction of fire negative impacts rather than on the elimination of this disturbance from the system.}, }
@article {pmid31051367, year = {2019}, author = {Luo, M and Liu, T and Meng, F and Duan, Y and Bao, A and Xing, W and Feng, X and De Maeyer, P and Frankl, A}, title = {Identifying climate change impacts on water resources in Xinjiang, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {676}, number = {}, pages = {613-626}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.297}, pmid = {31051367}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water resources have an important role in maintaining ecological fuctions and sustaining social and economic development. This is especially true in arid and semi-arid areas, where climate change has a large impact on water resources, such as in Xinjiang, China. Using a combination of precipitation and temperature bias correction methods, we analyzed projected changes in different hydrological components in nine high-alpine catchments distributed in Xinjiang using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The impacts of elevation, area and aspect of the catchments were analyzed. The results suggested an overall warming and wetting trend for all nine catchments in the near future, with the exception of summer precipitation decreasing in some catchments. The total runoff discharge, evapotranspiration and snow/ice melting will generally increase. Warming temperature plays a more important role in the changes of each hydrological component than increasing precipitation. However, northern Xinjiang was more sensitive to predicted precipitation changes than southern Xinjiang. These results also indicate that the overall increases in water resources are not sustainable, and the impacts of climate change are associated with the elevation, area and slope aspect of the catchments.}, }
@article {pmid31050681, year = {2019}, author = {Bi, K and Linderoth, T and Singhal, S and Vanderpool, D and Patton, JL and Nielsen, R and Moritz, C and Good, JM}, title = {Temporal genomic contrasts reveal rapid evolutionary responses in an alpine mammal during recent climate change.}, journal = {PLoS genetics}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e1008119}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pgen.1008119}, pmid = {31050681}, issn = {1553-7404}, abstract = {Many species have experienced dramatic changes in their abundance and distribution during recent climate change, but it is often unclear whether such ecological responses are accompanied by evolutionary change. We used targeted exon sequencing of 294 museum specimens (160 historic, 134 modern) to generate independent temporal genomic contrasts spanning a century of climate change (1911-2012) for two co-distributed chipmunk species: an endemic alpine specialist (Tamias alpinus) undergoing severe range contraction and a stable mid-elevation species (T. speciosus). Using a novel analytical approach, we reconstructed the demographic histories of these populations and tested for evidence of recent positive directional selection. Only the retracting species showed substantial population genetic fragmentation through time and this was coupled with positive selection and substantial shifts in allele frequencies at a gene, Alox15, involved in regulation of inflammation and response to hypoxia. However, these rapid population and gene-level responses were not detected in an analogous temporal contrast from another area where T. alpinus has also undergone severe range contraction. Collectively, these results highlight that evolutionary responses may be variable and context dependent across populations, even when they show seemingly synchronous ecological shifts. Our results demonstrate that temporal genomic contrasts can be used to detect very recent evolutionary responses within and among contemporary populations, even in the face of complex demographic changes. Given the wealth of specimens archived in natural history museums, comparative analyses of temporal population genomic data have the potential to improve our understanding of recent and ongoing evolutionary responses to rapidly changing environments.}, }
@article {pmid31050235, year = {2019}, author = {Mathis, M and Briand, S}, title = {[Climate change, epidemics and the importance of travel and tropical medicine].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {15}, number = {649}, pages = {898-900}, pmid = {31050235}, issn = {1660-9379}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the factors explaining the increased occurrence of epidemics, their geographical spread as well as their increased severity and broader impact. Climate change makes the environment more favourable for pathogens and their proliferation, as well as for vectors of infectious diseases (such as mosquitoes). Furthermore, the globalisation and intensified travel and trade require international cooperation for epidemic response and training of health professional on emerging infectious risks.}, }
@article {pmid31049162, year = {2019}, author = {Nhamo, G and Muchuru, S}, title = {Climate adaptation in the public health sector in Africa: Evidence from United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Communications.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {644}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.644}, pmid = {31049162}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change has potential to affect human health in various ways. Extreme temperatures and cold both result in deaths, while the changing habitats favouring the breeding of vectors could result in the spread of diseases such as malaria, cholera and typhus. This article reviews climate change adaptation measures in the African public health sector. The evidence is drawn from National Communications of 21 countries as submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This article combines the literature review and grounded theory approaches with data obtained from the UNFCCC National Communications. Among key adaptation measures emerging from the work are weather-based forecasting and early warning systems, public education and awareness, putting in place appropriate policies, surveillance, research and monitoring as well as improving public health infrastructure and technology. The study recommends that African nations should commit to address health impacts of climate change through the implementation of appropriate adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid31049161, year = {2019}, author = {Zwane, EM}, title = {Impact of climate change on primary agriculture, water sources and food security in Western Cape, South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {562}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.562}, pmid = {31049161}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is undoubtedly one of the biggest crises that humanity is facing today. There is a robust scientific consensus that human-induced climate change is occurring not only in the Western Cape but around the world. The objective of this research was to assess the impact of climate change on primary agriculture and food security. The paper is based on a literature review. A variety of literature reviews, for example, 11 government reports and 21 journal articles including experience outside Western Cape, were consulted to enrich the local experience regarding the impact of climate change on agriculture. The results indicated that many dams had low water levels (40%) during 2016/2017, which reduced crop yields including grapes. Droughts, which affected both smallholder and commercial farmers, are now a common phenomenon. Livestock production has declined over time, with small stock, the beef and dairy industry being the most affected. The paper concludes by highlighting climate adaptation and mitigation interventions and strategies for both crops and livestock production in the Western Cape. The major recommendations included scaling up on the use of organic matter to avoid burning and creating gas emissions to the atmosphere, the effective use of livestock manure and the use of appropriate and adaptable seed varieties, managing the manure of the livestock to assist in mulching to reduce water loss through evaporation and using adaptable seeds. Keywords: climate change; impact; mitigation; primary agriculture; adaptation; drought.}, }
@article {pmid31041921, year = {2019}, author = {Yadollahie, M}, title = {The Flood in Iran: A Consequence of the Global Warming?.}, journal = {The international journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {54-56}, doi = {10.15171/ijoem.2019.1681}, pmid = {31041921}, issn = {2008-6814}, }
@article {pmid31040405, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {Hurricane Maria's catastrophic rains are linked to global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {569}, number = {7754}, pages = {8}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-01280-w}, pmid = {31040405}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31035620, year = {2019}, author = {Li, Y and Qin, Y}, title = {The Response of Net Primary Production to Climate Change: A Case Study in the 400 mm Annual Precipitation Fluctuation Zone in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091497}, pmid = {31035620}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {41671536//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41501588//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {The regions in China that intersect the 400 mm annual precipitation line are especially ecologically sensitive and extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic activities. However, in the context of climate change, the response of vegetation Net Primary Production (NPP) in this region has not been scientifically studied in depth. NPP suffers from the comprehensive effect of multiple climatic factors, and how to eliminate the effect of interfering variables in the correlation analysis of NPP and target variables (temperature or precipitation) is the major challenge in the study of NPP influencing factors. The correlation coefficient between NPP and target variable was calculated by ignoring other variables that also had a large impact on NPP. This increased the uncertainty of research results. Therefore, in this study, the second-order partial correlation analysis method was used to analyze the correlation between NPP and target variables by controlling other variables. This can effectively decrease the uncertainty of analysis results. In this paper, the univariate linear regression, coefficient of variation, and Hurst index estimation were used to study the spatial and temporal variations in NPP and analyze whether the NPP seasonal and annual variability will persist into the future. The results show the following: (i) The spatial distribution of NPP correlated with precipitation and had a gradually decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. From 2000 to 2015, the NPP in the study area had a general upward trend, with a small variation in its range. (ii) Areas with negative partial correlation coefficients between NPP and precipitation are consistent with the areas with more abundant water resources. The partial correlation coefficient between the NPP and the Land Surface Temperature (LST) was positive for 52.64% of the total study area. Finally, the prediction of the persistence of NPP variation into the future showed significant differences on varying time scales. On an annual scale, NPP was predicted to persist for 46% of the study area. On a seasonal scale, NPP in autumn was predicted to account for 49.92%, followed by spring (25.67%), summer (13.40%), and winter (6.75%).}, }
@article {pmid31035418, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, H and Liu, B and Zhou, D and Wu, Z and Wang, T}, title = {Asymmetric Soil Warming under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091504}, pmid = {31035418}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {41601052//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41471085//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41501089//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2412016KJ010//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; 2412016KJ025//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; }, abstract = {Daily surface soil temperature data from 360 weather stations in China during 1962-2011 were retrieved and analyzed. The data revealed two aspects of asymmetric soil warming. Firstly, there was asymmetry between day and night in terms of increases in soil temperature. The daily maximum surface soil temperature (S T max) and daily minimum surface soil temperature (S T min) increased at rates of 0.031 and 0.055 °C/year over the 50-year interval, respectively. As a consequence of the more rapid increases in S T min , the soil diurnal temperature range (SDTR) decreased at most stations (average rate of -0.025 °C/year), with the most profound decrease in winter (-0.08 °C/year). The solar duration (SD) was positively related to SDTR and is regarded as the key underlying cause of the decreasing SDTR. Secondly, there was asymmetry between the soil and air in the temperature increase. The differences between soil and air temperature (T D) were highest in summer (2.76 °C) and smallest in winter (1.55 °C), which decreased by 0.3 °C over the study interval, this meant agricultural practice plans based on air temperature alone may be severely limited. The difference between soil temperature and air temperature reduces at night. This would facilitate the wintering of perennials in areas near the zero-contour line.}, }
@article {pmid31032967, year = {2019}, author = {Milicevic, D and Petronijevic, R and Petrovic, Z and Djinovic Stojanovic, J and Jovanovic, J and Baltić, T and Jankovic, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on aflatoxin M1 contamination of raw milk with a special focus on climate conditions in serbia.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.9768}, pmid = {31032967}, issn = {1097-0010}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impact of climate change has been identified as an emerging issue worldwide due to potential effects that can provoke changes in the nature and occurrence of food safety hazards. Mycotoxins are a group of naturally occurring toxic substances produced by several genera of filamentous fungi, among which, primarily aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxins, trichothecenes, and zearalenone are of the greatest concern, due to their negative impact on human health, animal productivity, and international trade.<br><br>RESULT: Extreme weather conditions such as floods and droughts which have not occurred previously in Serbia may be supporting factors for contamination of crops by various species of toxigenic fungi and their related mycotoxins. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) and multivariate analyses were used as powerful tools, allowing better understanding of the range of climate factors impacting on crop contamination by mycotoxins. Among the selected environmental variables, temperature and moisture significantly influenced aflatoxin production. Recent drought and then flooding confirmed that Serbia is one of the few European countries with very high risk exposure to natural hazards, as well as that mycotoxins are one of the foodborne hazards most susceptible to climate change. Thus, climate change effects on mycotoxigenic fungi and mycotoxin contamination is now receiving scientific attention, especially from a risk analysis perspective.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This paper evaluates the available information on the influence of climate change on mycotoxin contamination, especially aflatoxin M1 (AFM1). In addition, this investigation should beneficially contribute to more accurate predictions of the regional risk from mycotoxins in future decades.}, }
@article {pmid31031955, year = {2019}, author = {Griffith, AW and Harke, MJ and DePasquale, E and Berry, DL and Gobler, CJ}, title = {The harmful algae, Cochlodinium polykrikoides and Aureococcus anophagefferens, elicit stronger transcriptomic and mortality response in larval bivalves (Argopecten irradians) than climate change stressors.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {4931-4948}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5100}, pmid = {31031955}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Global ocean change threatens marine life, yet a mechanistic understanding of how organisms are affected by specific stressors is poorly understood. Here, we identify and compare the unique and common transcriptomic responses of an organism experiencing widespread fisheries declines, Argopecten irradians (bay scallop) exposed to multiple stressors including high pCO2, elevated temperature, and two species of harmful algae, Cochlodinium (aka Margalefidinium) polykrikoides and Aureococcus anophagefferens using high-throughput sequencing (RNA-seq). After 48 hr of exposure, scallop transcriptomes revealed distinct expression profiles with larvae exposed to harmful algae (C. polykrikoides and A. anophagefferens) displaying broader responses in terms of significantly and differentially expressed (DE) transcripts (44,922 and 4,973; respectively) than larvae exposed to low pH or elevated temperature (559 and 467; respectively). Patterns of expression between larvae exposed to each harmful algal treatment were, however, strikingly different with larvae exposed to A. anophagefferens displaying large, significant declines in the expression of transcripts (n = 3,615; 87% of DE transcripts) whereas exposure to C. polykrikoides increased the abundance of transcripts, more than all other treatments combined (n = 43,668; 97% of DE transcripts). Larvae exposed to each stressor up-regulated a common set of 21 genes associated with protein synthesis, cellular metabolism, shell growth, and membrane transport. Larvae exposed to C. polykrikoides displayed large increases in antioxidant-associated transcripts, whereas acidification-exposed larvae increased abundance of transcripts associated with shell formation. After 10 days of exposure, each harmful algae caused declines in survival that were significantly greater than all other treatments. Collectively, this study reveals the common and unique transcriptional responses of bivalve larvae to stressors that promote population declines within coastal zones, providing insight into the means by which they promote mortality as well as traits possessed by bay scallops that enable potential resistance.}, }
@article {pmid31031931, year = {2019}, author = {Hyseni, C and Garrick, RC}, title = {The role of glacial-interglacial climate change in shaping the genetic structure of eastern subterranean termites in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {4621-4636}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5065}, pmid = {31031931}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The eastern subterranean termite, Reticulitermes flavipes, currently inhabits previously glaciated regions of the northeastern U.S., as well as the unglaciated southern Appalachian Mountains and surrounding areas. We hypothesized that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations have influenced the distribution of R. flavipes, and thus the evolutionary history of the species. We estimated contemporary and historical geographic distributions of R. flavipes by constructing Species Distribution Models (SDM). We also inferred the evolutionary and demographic history of the species using mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase I and II) and nuclear (endo-beta-1,4-glucanase) DNA sequence data. To do this, genetic populations were delineated using Bayesian spatial-genetic clustering, competing hypotheses about population divergence were assessed using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), and changes in population size were estimated using Bayesian skyline plots. SDMs identified areas in the north with suitable habitat during the transition from the Last Interglacial to the Last Glacial Maximum, as well as an expanding distribution from the mid-Holocene to the present. Genetic analyses identified three geographically cohesive populations, corresponding with northern, central, and southern portions of the study region. Based on ABC analyses, divergence between the Northern and Southern populations was the oldest, estimated to have occurred 64.80 thousand years ago (kya), which corresponds with the timing of available habitat in the north. The Central and Northern populations diverged in the mid-Holocene, 8.63 kya, after which the Central population continued to expand. Accordingly, phylogeographic patterns of R. flavipes in the southern Appalachians appear to have been strongly influenced by glacial-interglacial climate change.<br><br>OPEN RESEARCH BADGES: This article has been awarded Open Materials, Open Data Badges. All materials and data are publicly accessible via the Open Science Framework at https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.5hr7f31.}, }
@article {pmid31031283, year = {2019}, author = {Lee, AM}, title = {Citizen Scientists in Antarctica: FjordPhyto Approach to Understand Climate Change Affected Environments.}, journal = {Narrative inquiry in bioethics}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {21-24}, doi = {10.1353/nib.2019.0010}, pmid = {31031283}, issn = {2157-1740}, }
@article {pmid31030319, year = {2019}, author = {Nagai, S and Saitoh, TM and Yoshitake, S}, title = {Cultural ecosystem services provided by flowering of cherry trees under climate change: a case study of the relationship between the periods of flowering and festivals.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-019-01719-9}, pmid = {31030319}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {2017-F-002//Joint Usage/Research Grant from the River Basin Research Center, Gifu University/ ; }, abstract = {In Japan, cherry blossoms are an important tourism resource and provide many cultural ecosystem service benefits. Under future warming conditions, we will require adaptions such as changing the timing of flower festivals to account for changes in the flowering phenology. In this study, we evaluated the coincidence between the flowering phenology of cherry blossoms and the associated festival periods in two Japanese cities under past, recent, and future climate conditions. We examined the situation in Shinhidaka, where the flower festival period changes every year, and Takayama, where the festival period is fixed to coincide with a shrine's annual spring festival. Currently, the average dates of beginning of flowering (more than four or five flowers open in an index tree; ~BBCH60) and full bloom (equal to or more than 80% of flowers open in an index tree; after BBCH65) in Shinhidaka (day of year (DOY) 126 and 130) are later than the long national holiday of Golden Week (DOY 119 to 125). The respective dates in Takayama (DOY 106 and 111, respectively) are later than the local a festival period (DOY 104 and 105). Under a scenario of 1.0 to 2.0 °C warming, the full blooming dates in Shinhidaka will coincide with Golden Week, whereas under 1.0 to 1.5 °C warming, the full blooming dates in Takayama will coincide with the spring festival period. Thus, moderate warming may increase the value of cherry blossoms to the tourism industry. Under more than 3.5 °C warming in Shinhidaka and 2.5 °C warming in Takayama, however, cherry blossoms will have already dropped by Golden Week and the spring festival period, respectively, suggesting that greater warming may decrease the value of this tourism resource.}, }
@article {pmid31029890, year = {2019}, author = {Nasir, MA and Duc Huynh, TL and Xuan Tram, HT}, title = {Role of financial development, economic growth &amp; foreign direct investment in driving climate change: A case of emerging ASEAN.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {242}, number = {}, pages = {131-141}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.112}, pmid = {31029890}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {In the context of remarkable economic growth and financial development in the emerging economies of East Asia, this paper attempts to shed light on the ecological consequences (CO2 emission) of economic growth, foreign direct investment and financial development in the selected ASEAN-5 economies. Drawing on the data from 1982 to 2014, we employed a set of quantitative techniques for panel data analysis which entailed Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) approaches. Our findings indicate that financial and economic development, as well as FDI, have a statistically significant long-run co-integrating relationship with environmental degradation (CO2 emissions) in the under analysis economies. It showed that in ASEAN-5 countries, economic growth, financial development and FDI leads to an increase in environmental degradation. The quadratic term for economic growth showed a negative impact on environmental degradation i.e. Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Our key findings manifest and emphasise the importance of appropriate policies for more inclusive economic and financial development and sustainable foreign direct investment which does not impede on the environment.}, }
@article {pmid31029753, year = {2019}, author = {Varo, R and Rodó, X and Bassat, Q}, title = {Climate change, cyclones and cholera - Implications for travel medicine and infectious diseases.}, journal = {Travel medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tmaid.2019.04.007}, pmid = {31029753}, issn = {1873-0442}, }
@article {pmid31029138, year = {2019}, author = {Gronlund, CJ and Cameron, L and Shea, C and O'Neill, MS}, title = {Assessing the magnitude and uncertainties of the burden of selected diseases attributable to extreme heat and extreme precipitation under a climate change scenario in Michigan for the period 2041-2070.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {40}, doi = {10.1186/s12940-019-0483-5}, pmid = {31029138}, issn = {1476-069X}, support = {2UL1TR000433-06//National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences/ ; K99ES026198//National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences/ ; P30 ES017885//National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences/ ; T42 OH008455-09//National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health/ ; EH001124//National Center for Environmental Health/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Extreme heat (EH) and extreme precipitation (EP) events are expected to increase with climate change in many parts of the world. Characterizing the potential future morbidity and mortality burden of EH and EP and associated costs, as well as uncertainties in the estimates, can identify areas for public health intervention and inform adaptation strategies. We demonstrate a burden of disease and uncertainty assessment using data from Michigan, USA, and provide approaches for deriving these estimates for locations lacking certain data inputs.<br><br>METHODS: Case-crossover analysis adapted from previous Michigan-specific modeling was used to characterize the historical EH-mortality relationship by county poverty rate and age group. Historical EH-associated hospitalization and emergency room visit risks from the literature were adapted to Michigan. In the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's BenMAP software, we used a novel approach, with multiple spatially-varying exposures, to estimate all non-accidental mortality and morbidity occurring on EH days (EH days; days where maximum temperature 32.2-35 C or > 35 C) and EP days. We did so for two time periods: the &quot;historical&quot; period (1971-2000), and the &quot;projected&quot; period (2041-2070), by county.<br><br>RESULTS: The rate of all non-accidental mortality associated with EH days increased from 0.46/100,000 persons historically to 2.9/100,000 in the projected period, for 240 EH-attributable deaths annually. EH-associated ED visits increased from 12/100,000 persons to 68/100,000 persons, for 7800 EH-attributable emergency department visits. EP-associated ED visits increased minimally from 1.7 to 1.9/100,000 persons. Mortality and morbidity were highest among those aged 65+ (91% of all deaths). Projected health costs are dominated by EH-associated mortality ($280 million) and EH-associated emergency department visits ($14 million). A variety of sources contribute to a moderate-to-high degree of uncertainty around the point estimates, including uncertainty in the magnitude of climate change, population composition, baseline health rates, and exposure-response estimates.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The approach applied here showed that health burden due to climate may significantly rise for all Michigan counties by midcentury. The costs to health care and uncertainties in the estimates, given the potential for substantial attributable burden, provide additional information to guide adaptation measures for EH and EP.}, }
@article {pmid31028372, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Curbing global warming could save US$20 trillion.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {557}, number = {7706}, pages = {467-468}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05219-5}, pmid = {31028372}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31027461, year = {2019}, author = {Walter, S and Lörcher, I and Brüggemann, M}, title = {Scientific networks on Twitter: Analyzing scientists' interactions in the climate change debate.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {963662519844131}, doi = {10.1177/0963662519844131}, pmid = {31027461}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {Scientific issues requiring urgent societal actions-such as climate change-have increased the need for communication and interaction between scientists and other societal actors. Social media platforms facilitate such exchanges. This study investigates who scientists interact with on Twitter, and whether their communication differs when engaging with actors beyond the scientific community. We focus on the climate change debate on Twitter and combine network analysis with automated content analysis. The results show that scientists interact most intensively with their peers, but also communication beyond the scientific community is important. The findings suggest that scientists adjust their communication style to their audience: They use more neutral language when communicating with other scientists, and more words expressing negative emotions when communicating with journalists, civil society, and politicians. Likewise, they stress certainty more when communicating with politicians, indicating that scientists use language strategically when communicating beyond the scientific community.}, }
@article {pmid31027434, year = {2019}, author = {Levy, BS}, title = {Increasing Risks for Armed Conflict: Climate Change, Food and Water Insecurity, and Forced Displacement.}, journal = {International journal of health services : planning, administration, evaluation}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {20731419845249}, doi = {10.1177/0020731419845249}, pmid = {31027434}, issn = {1541-4469}, abstract = {The interrelated factors of climate change, decreased access to freshwater, and forced displacement are heightening the risk of armed conflict. Higher temperatures and extremes of precipitation are contributing to food and water insecurity, forced displacement, and sociopolitical tensions. Health professionals can help to address these problems through education, advocacy, and other activities that aim to mitigate and adapt to climate change and minimize the risk of armed conflict.}, }
@article {pmid31025468, year = {2019}, author = {Godde, C and Dizyee, K and Ash, A and Thornton, P and Sloat, L and Roura, E and Henderson, B and Herrero, M}, title = {Climate change and variability impacts on grazing herds: Insights from a system dynamics approach for semi-arid Australian rangelands.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14669}, pmid = {31025468}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Grazing livestock are an important source of food and income for millions of people worldwide. Changes in mean climate and increasing climate variability are affecting grasslands' carrying capacity, thus threatening the livelihood of millions of people as well as the health of grassland ecosystems. Compared with cropping systems, relatively little is known about the impact of such climatic changes on grasslands and livestock productivity and the adaptation responses available to farmers. In this study, we analysed the relationship between changes in mean precipitation, precipitation variability, farming practices and grazing cattle using a system dynamics approach for a semi-arid Australian rangeland system. We found that forage production and animal stocking rates were significantly affected by drought intensities and durations as well as by long-term climate trends. After a drought event, herd size recovery times ranged from years to decades in the absence of proactive restocking through animal purchases. Decreases in the annual precipitation means or increases in the inter-annual (year-to-year) and intra-annual (month-to-month) precipitation variability, all reduced herd sizes. The contribution of farming practices versus climate effects on herd dynamics varied depending on the herd characteristics considered. Climate contributed the most to the variance in stocking rates, followed by forage productivity levels and feeding supplementation practices (with or without urea and molasses). While intensification strategies and favourable climates increased long-term herd sizes, they also resulted in larger reductions in animal numbers during droughts and raised total enteric methane emissions. In the face of future climate trends, the grazing sector will need to increase its adaptability. Understanding which farming strategies can be beneficial, where, and when, as well as the enabling mechanisms required to implement them, will be critical for effectively improving rangelands and the livelihoods of pastoralists worldwide. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31025387, year = {2019}, author = {Inouye, DW}, title = {Effects of climate change on alpine plants and their pollinators.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14104}, pmid = {31025387}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {DEB-1354104//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Alpine environments are among the habitats most strongly affected by climate change, and consequently their unique plants and pollinators are faced with the challenge of adapting or going extinct. Changes in temperature and precipitation affect snowpack and snowmelt, resulting in changes in the growing season in this environment where plant growth and pollinator activity are constrained to the snow-free season, which can vary significantly across the landscape if there is significant topographic complexity. As in other ecosystems, the resulting changes in phenology are not uniform among species, creating the potential for altered and new interspecific interactions. New plant and animal species are arriving as lower altitude species move up with warming temperatures, introducing new competitors and generating changes in plant-pollinator interactions. Repeating historical surveys, taking advantage of museum collections, and using new technology will facilitate our understanding of how plants and pollinators are responding to the changing alpine environment.}, }
@article {pmid31024763, year = {2019}, author = {Li, J and Wu, J and Peng, K and Fan, G and Yu, H and Wang, W and He, Y}, title = {Simulating the effects of climate change across the geographical distribution of two medicinal plants in the genus Nardostachys.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6730}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.6730}, pmid = {31024763}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background: The medicinal plants of Radix et Rhizoma Nardostachyos include Nardostachys jatamansi and N. chinensis. Traditionally, the two plants have been used to treat many diseases. Because of their special aroma, they are also commonly used in the food and cosmetics industry. Recently, N. jatamansi and N. chinensis have been overexploited due to their economic importance, resulting in a sharp decline in their wild resources. Predicting potential distributions of the genus Nardostachys under different climate scenarios and understanding its preferred habitat are of great significance for their conservation, artificial cultivation, and assessment of their value.<br><br>Methods: The Maxent model was used to predict the potential geographical distributions of the genus Nardostachys under current and future climatic conditions based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s. These data were used to study the effects of climate variables.<br><br>Results: The results show that the potential distribution of the two species will increase, thus more suitable habitats will be present in China. The suitable habitat for N. chinensis presents a relatively stable growth compared to N. jatamansi. In addition, precipitation plays a crucial role in modeling the effects of climate change on the genus Nardostachys. This study provides theoretical guidance for the cultivation of N. chinensis.}, }
@article {pmid31023518, year = {2019}, author = {Bouvet, L and Chassard, D}, title = {Fighting global warming: it's time to reduce waste!.}, journal = {International journal of obstetric anesthesia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijoa.2019.03.001}, pmid = {31023518}, issn = {1532-3374}, }
@article {pmid31022612, year = {2019}, author = {Tong, S and Ebi, K}, title = {Preventing and mitigating health risks of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {174}, number = {}, pages = {9-13}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.04.012}, pmid = {31022612}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Global environmental changes, driven by the consequences of human activities and population growth, are altering our planet in ways that pose current threats to human health, with the magnitude of these threats projected to increase over coming decades if additional, proactive actions are not taken. Global changes, unprecedented in their geospatial and temporal scales, include climate change, marine pollution, ozone layer depletion, soil degradation, and urbanization. Climate change is the best studied. The health risks of a changing climate will become increasingly urgent as climate change affects the quantity and quality of food and water, increases air pollution, alters the distribution of vectors/pathogens and disease transmission dynamics, and reduces eco-physical buffering against extreme weather and climate events. Health systems urgently need to be improved to effectively address these emerging challenges. This paper provides an overview of the health consequences of climate change, and discusses how health risks can be minimized and avoided via mitigation and adaptation pathways.}, }
@article {pmid31022212, year = {2019}, author = {Legault, S and Houle, D and Plouffe, A and Ameztegui, A and Kuehn, D and Chase, L and Blondlot, A and Perkins, TD}, title = {Perceptions of U.S. and Canadian maple syrup producers toward climate change, its impacts, and potential adaptation measures.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0215511}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0215511}, pmid = {31022212}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The production of maple syrup is an important cultural and economic activity directly related to the climate of northeastern North America. As a result, there are signs that climate change could have negative impacts on maple syrup production in the next decades, particularly for regions located at the southern margins of the sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) range. The purpose of this survey study is to present the beliefs and opinions of maple syrup producers of Canada (N = 241) and the U.S. (N = 113) on climate change in general, its impacts on sugar maple health and maple syrup production, and potential adaptation measures. Using conditional inference classification trees, we examined how the socio-economic profile of respondents and the geographic location and size of respondents' sugar bushes shaped the responses of survey participants. While a majority (75%) of respondents are confident that the average temperature on Earth is increasing, less than half (46%) believe that climate change will have negative impacts on maple syrup yield in the next 30 years. Political view was a significant predictor of these results, with respondents at the right right and center-right of the political spectrum being less likely to believe in climate change and less likely to anticipate negative effects of climate change on maple syrup production. In addition, 77% of the participants indicated an interest in adopting adaptation strategies if those could increase maple syrup production. This interest was greater for respondents using vacuum tubing for sap collection than other collection methods. However, for many respondents (particularly in Canada), lack of information was identified as a constraint limiting adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31021067, year = {2019}, author = {Malena-Chan, R}, title = {A narrative model for exploring climate change engagement among young community leaders.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {157-166}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.07}, pmid = {31021067}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Decades of widespread knowledge about climate change have not translated into adequate action to address impacts on population health and health equity in Canada. Research has shown that context-based perceptions and interpretations mediate engagement. Exploring climate change engagement involves inquiry into contextual experience.<br><br>METHODS: This qualitative study has employed narrative methodology to interpret the meaning of climate change among community leaders in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, age 20-40 (n = 10). Climate change narratives were explored both structurally and thematically.<br><br>RESULTS: A model was developed to organize results and to describe concepts of fidelity and dissonance within participant narratives. Findings suggested that knowledge of climate change and personal motivation to act did not preclude narrative dissonance, which served as a barrier to a meaningful personal response. Dissonance can result where internal and external barriers mediate mobilization at moments in the plot: (1) moving from knowledge of the challenge to a sense of agency about it; (2) from agency to a sense of responsibility to choose to address it; (3) from responsibility to a sense of capacity to produce desirable outcomes despite contextual challenges; and (4) from capacity to a moral sense of activation in context. Without narrative fidelity, meaningful mobilization can be hindered.<br><br>CONCLUSION: A narrative model is useful for exploring climate change engagement and highlights opportunities for a population health approach to address the conditions that hinder meaningful mobilization. By framing climate change narratives with emotional and moral logic, population health framing could help young leaders overcome internal and external barriers to engagement.}, }
@article {pmid31021066, year = {2019}, author = {MacIntyre, E and Khanna, S and Darychuk, A and Copes, R and Schwartz, B}, title = {Evidence synthesis - Evaluating risk communication during extreme weather and climate change: a scoping review.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {142-156}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.06}, pmid = {31021066}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Communicating risk to the public continues to be a challenge for public health practitioners working in the area of climate change. We conducted a scoping literature review on the evaluation of risk communication for extreme weather and climate change to inform local public health messaging, consistent with requirements under the Ontario Public Health Standards (OPHS), which were updated in 2018 to include effective communication regarding climate change and extreme weather.<br><br>METHODS: Search strategies were developed by library information specialists and used to retrieve peer-reviewed academic and grey literature from bibliographic databases (Medline, Embase, Scopus and CINAHL) and Google country specific searches, respectively. The search strategy was validated through a workshop with experts and community stakeholders, with expertise in environment, health, emergency management and risk communication.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 43 articles were included. These articles addressed issues such as: climate change (n = 22), flooding (n = 12), hurricane events (n = 5), extreme heat (n = 2), and wild fires (n = 2). Studies were predominantly from the US (n = 14), Europe (n = 6) and Canada (n = 5).<br><br>CONCLUSION: To meet the OPHS 2018, public health practitioners need to engage in effective risk communication to motivate local actions that mitigate the effects of extreme weather and climate change. Based on the scoping review, risk communication efforts during short-term extreme weather events appear to be more effective than efforts to communicate risk around climate change. This distinction could highlight a unique opportunity for public health to adapt strategies commonly used for extreme weather to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31021064, year = {2019}, author = {Kingsley, M and , }, title = {Commentary - Climate change, health and green space co-benefits.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {131-135}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.04}, pmid = {31021064}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {We examined two of humanity's present-day challenges, climate change and chronic diseases, in relation to the co-benefits that green spaces provide to human health and the environment. The reduction of several chronic diseases and associated symptoms, including anxiety, obesity and cardiovascular disease, has been associated with the presence of and access to green space. Green spaces also contribute to a number of environmental health benefits and have been shown to reduce the likelihood of flooding, improve air quality and provide cooling and shade. These co-benefits address both the symptoms of several chronic diseases and associated risk factors along with the environmental and health impacts of climate change. This article explores how to maximize the co-benefits of green spaces through two examples of multi-sectoral collaborations. With these two examples, we have provided a model of collective collaboration that aims to address complex issues, such as climate change and chronic diseases, through the common intervention of green spaces.}, }
@article {pmid31021063, year = {2019}, author = {Richards, G and Frehs, J and Myers, E and Van Bibber, M}, title = {Commentary - The Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program: Indigenous Climate Leaders' Championing Adaptation Effort.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {127-130}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.03}, pmid = {31021063}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {The Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program (CCHAP) is a program within the First Nations Inuit Health Branch of Indigenous Services Canada (which was previously under the responsibility of Health Canada). The CCHAP supports Inuit and First Nation communities in mitigating and adapting to the health impacts of climate change. The impacts of climate change on Indigenous health can be observed in multiple areas including, but not limited to, food security, cultural medicines, mental health and landbased practices. This program seeks to address the needs of climate change and health in First Nation and Inuit communities to support resiliency and adaptation to a changing climate both now and in the future through its emphasis on youth and capacity building. The commentary is based on the Program's eleven years of experience working with and for Indigenous communities and provides an overview of the CCHAP model and the work it has and continues to support. This paper demonstrates three examples of community-based projects to mitigate and adapt to the health impacts of climate change to demonstrate climate change resiliency within Indigenous communities.}, }
@article {pmid31021062, year = {2019}, author = {Kipp, A and Cunsolo, A and Vodden, K and King, N and Manners, S and Harper, SL}, title = {At-a-glance - Climate change impacts on health and wellbeing in rural and remote regions across Canada: a synthesis of the literature.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {122-126}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.02}, pmid = {31021062}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {This article provides a synthesis of the forthcoming first order draft of the Canadian Government's National Assessment on Climate Change 'Rural and Remote' chapter, highlighting key health concerns from the literature associated with climate change in rural and remote regions, as well as existing and future adaptation strategies. To support the health and wellbeing of those experiencing the negative effects of climate change, and utilizing systematic search processes, this synthesis article highlights the importance of considering the specific socio-cultural, economic, and geographic elements and existing expertise of individuals and communities in rural and remote regions.}, }
@article {pmid31021061, year = {2019}, author = {Cunsolo, A and Harper, SL}, title = {Editorial - Climate change and health: a grand challenge and grand opportunity for public health in Canada.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {119-121}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.01}, pmid = {31021061}, issn = {2368-738X}, }
@article {pmid31018473, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, B and Deveson, ED and Waters, C and Spessa, A and Lawton, D and Feng, P and Liu, L}, title = {Future climate change likely to reduce the Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera) seasonal outbreaks.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {668}, number = {}, pages = {947-957}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.439}, pmid = {31018473}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate is a major limiting factor for insect distributions and it is expected that a changing climate will likely alter spatial patterns of pest outbreaks. The Australian plague locust (APL) Chortoicetes terminifera, is the most economically important locust species in Australia. Invasions cause large scale economic damage to agricultural crops and pastures. Understanding the regional-scale and long-term dynamics is a prerequisite to develop effective control and preventive management strategies. In this study, we used a 32-year locust survey database to uncover the relationship between historical bioclimatic variables and spatial seasonal outbreaks by developing two machine learning species distribution models (SDMs), random forest and boosted regression trees. The explanatory variables were ranked by contribution to the generated models. The bio-climate models were then projected into a future climate change scenario (RCP8.5) using downscaled 34 global climate models (GCMs) to assess how climate change may alter APL seasonal distribution patterns in eastern Australia. Our results show that the model for the distribution of spring outbreaks performed better than those for summer and autumn, based on statistical evaluation criteria. The spatial models of seasonal outbreaks indicate that the areas subject to APL outbreaks were likely to decrease in all seasons. Multi-GCM ensemble means show the largest decrease in area was for spring outbreaks, reduced by 93-94% by 2071-2090, while the area of summer outbreaks decreased by 78-90%, and 67-74% for autumn outbreaks. The bioclimatic variables could explain 78-98% outbreak areas change. This study represents an important step toward the assessment of the effects of the changing climate on locust outbreaks and can help inform future priorities for regional mitigation efforts in the context of global climate change in eastern Australia.}, }
@article {pmid31018443, year = {2019}, author = {Fonseca, AR and Santos, JA}, title = {Predicting hydrologic flows under climate change: The Tâmega Basin as an analog for the Mediterranean region.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {668}, number = {}, pages = {1013-1024}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.435}, pmid = {31018443}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology of the Tâmega River basin, northern Portugal, are assessed by comparing simulated hydrologic scenarios derived from both observational climate databases for a recent past period (1950-2015) and EURO-CORDEX model simulations for the future (2021-2100). Future climate change scenarios are based on an ensemble of five climate model chain experiments and on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Basin-mean annual temperatures are ca. 10% or 20% warmer than in recent past climate (12.4 °C) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Furthermore, basin-mean annual precipitation decreases by approximately 8% or 13%, when compared to recent past (1255 mm). The Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) is applied to the historical data and to each of the five model simulations separately so as to simulate potential changes in flowrates. The model is calibrated and validated using 5 hydrometric stations, achieving satisfactory results regarding flowrate simulation. A reconstruction of flowrates within the entire river basin and over the historical period is accomplished, which is particularly useful when observed data is missing. The projected climate change impacts on annual flowrates reveal a decrease from 18% to 28% relative to observations (70.9 m3 s-1). These findings provide valuable information for the future management and planning of water resources (water security) and can be largely generalized not only to other basins in Portugal, but also over most of Southern Europe and throughout the Mediterranean Basin, where significant warming and drying trends are widespread footprints of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31016366, year = {2019}, author = {Lehmkuhl, D}, title = {[Climate change and its significance in the healthcare community: history, landmarks, and major players].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02935-9}, pmid = {31016366}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {Since the early 1990s, science has addressed anthropogenic climate change as a health issue. From about 2000 onwards, the scientific literature and evidence on the health effects of climate change has been rapidly increasing. Global warming is now considered an &quot;existential threat to humankind,&quot; and leading health organizations call climate change &quot;the defining issue for public health in the 21 century&quot; or a &quot;public health emergency.&quot;In recent years, climate change as a health issue has become more and more prominent in health communities on the national and international level.The growing importance of this issue in the international health community and the stages, milestones, and topics of this development are described and what health professionals and health organizations can do to protect health from climate change is demonstrated. The decisive role of The Lancet and the reports of its international commissions, the British Medical Journal (BMJ), and the World Health Organisation (WHO) in setting the agenda is underlined. Important actors, organizations, initiatives as well as new concepts like &quot;planetary health&quot; and &quot;planetary boundaries&quot; are introduced. In the German health sector, however, climate change - apart from niches - has not been much of an issue so far. Neither in the health sector, climate policies, nor climate movement the connections between climate change and health are sufficiently understood, considered, or implemented. A look beyond borders shows what might be possible and necessary in view of the possibly &quot;greatest crisis we have ever faced.&quot;The article is based on the author's experience, cooperation, and exchange with parties that are engaged with the issue and on years of literature research. He initiated the campaign of German doctors calling on their pension funds to divest from fossil fuels and is a founding and present board member of the &quot;German Alliance on Health and Climate Change,&quot; which was founded 2017.}, }
@article {pmid31016365, year = {2019}, author = {Kendrovski, V and Schmoll, O}, title = {Priorities for protecting health from climate change in the WHO European Region: recent regional activities.}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02943-9}, pmid = {31016365}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {Evidence of the impact of climate change on health is growing. Health systems need to be prepared and gradually adapt to the effects of climate change, including extreme weather events.Fossil fuel combustion as the driver of climate change poses a tremendous burden of disease. In turn, cutting greenhouse gas emissions in all sectors will achieve health co-benefits. If all countries meet the Paris Agreement by 2030, the annual number of avoidable premature deaths could total 138,000 across the entire European Region of the World Health Organization (WHO).Several international frameworks promote a stronger commitment by countries to implementing the necessary adaptations in the health sector and to addressing health considerations in adaptation measures in other sectors. The WHO has a mandate from its member states to identify solutions and help prevent or reduce health impacts, including those from climate change.National governments are continuing to establish public health adaptation measures, which provide a rationale for and trigger action on climate change by the health community. Effective national responses to climate risks require strategic analyses of current and anticipated threats. Health professionals need to play a proactive role in promoting health arguments and evidence in the formulation of national climate change adaptation and mitigation responses. To this end, country capacities need to be further strengthened to identify and address local health risks posed by climate change and to develop, implement and evaluate health-focused interventions through integrated approaches. Building climate-resilient and environmentally sustainable health care facilities is an essential pillar of health sector leadership to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31015996, year = {2019}, author = {Gómez-Gras, D and Linares, C and de Caralt, S and Cebrian, E and Frleta-Valić, M and Montero-Serra, I and Pagès-Escolà, M and López-Sendino, P and Garrabou, J}, title = {Response diversity in Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages facing climate change: Insights from a multispecific thermotolerance experiment.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {4168-4180}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5045}, pmid = {31015996}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change threatens coastal benthic communities on a global scale. However, the potential effects of ongoing warming on mesophotic temperate reefs at the community level remain poorly understood. Investigating how different members of these communities will respond to the future expected environmental conditions is, therefore, key to anticipating their future trajectories and developing specific management and conservation strategies. Here, we examined the responses of some of the main components of the highly diverse Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages to thermal stress. We performed thermotolerance experiments with different temperature treatments (from 26 to 29°C) with 10 species from different phyla (three anthozoans, six sponges and one ascidian) and different structural roles. Overall, we observed species-specific contrasting responses to warming regardless of phyla or growth form. Moreover, the responses ranged from highly resistant species to sensitive species and were mostly in agreement with previous field observations from mass mortality events (MMEs) linked to Mediterranean marine heat waves. Our results unravel the diversity of responses to warming in coralligenous outcrops and suggest the presence of potential winners and losers in the face of climate change. Finally, this study highlights the importance of accounting for species-specific vulnerabilities and response diversity when forecasting the future trajectories of temperate benthic communities in a warming ocean.}, }
@article {pmid31010935, year = {2019}, author = {Hopkinson, NS and Hart, N and Jenkins, G and Rosenfeld, M and Smyth, AR and Wilkinson, AJK and Kaminski, N}, title = {Climate change and lung health: presidential failure, professional responsibility.}, journal = {Thorax}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/thoraxjnl-2019-213184}, pmid = {31010935}, issn = {1468-3296}, }
@article {pmid31010922, year = {2019}, author = {Diffenbaugh, NS and Burke, M}, title = {Global warming has increased global economic inequality.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1816020116}, pmid = {31010922}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Understanding the causes of economic inequality is critical for achieving equitable economic development. To investigate whether global warming has affected the recent evolution of inequality, we combine counterfactual historical temperature trajectories from a suite of global climate models with extensively replicated empirical evidence of the relationship between historical temperature fluctuations and economic growth. Together, these allow us to generate probabilistic country-level estimates of the influence of anthropogenic climate forcing on historical economic output. We find very high likelihood that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased economic inequality between countries. For example, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has been reduced 17-31% at the poorest four deciles of the population-weighted country-level per capita GDP distribution, yielding a ratio between the top and bottom deciles that is 25% larger than in a world without global warming. As a result, although between-country inequality has decreased over the past half century, there is ∼90% likelihood that global warming has slowed that decrease. The primary driver is the parabolic relationship between temperature and economic growth, with warming increasing growth in cool countries and decreasing growth in warm countries. Although there is uncertainty in whether historical warming has benefited some temperate, rich countries, for most poor countries there is >90% likelihood that per capita GDP is lower today than if global warming had not occurred. Thus, our results show that, in addition to not sharing equally in the direct benefits of fossil fuel use, many poor countries have been significantly harmed by the warming arising from wealthy countries' energy consumption.}, }
@article {pmid31007726, year = {2019}, author = {Thomas, K and Hardy, RD and Lazrus, H and Mendez, M and Orlove, B and Rivera-Collazo, I and Roberts, JT and Rockman, M and Warner, BP and Winthrop, R}, title = {Explaining differential vulnerability to climate change: A social science review.}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {e565}, doi = {10.1002/wcc.565}, pmid = {31007726}, issn = {1757-7780}, abstract = {The varied effects of recent extreme weather events around the world exemplify the uneven impacts of climate change on populations, even within relatively small geographic regions. Differential human vulnerability to environmental hazards results from a range of social, economic, historical, and political factors, all of which operate at multiple scales. While adaptation to climate change has been the dominant focus of policy and research agendas, it is essential to ask as well why some communities and peoples are disproportionately exposed to and affected by climate threats. The cases and synthesis presented here are organized around four key themes (resource access, governance, culture, and knowledge), which we approach from four social science fields (cultural anthropology, archaeology, human geography, and sociology). Social scientific approaches to human vulnerability draw vital attention to the root causes of climate change threats and the reasons that people are forced to adapt to them. Because vulnerability is a multidimensional process rather than an unchanging state, a dynamic social approach to vulnerability is most likely to improve mitigation and adaptation planning efforts. This article is categorized under:Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Values-Based Approach to Vulnerability and Adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31007600, year = {2018}, author = {Hernandez, Y and Barbosa, P and Corral, S and Rivas, S}, title = {An institutional analysis to address climate change adaptation in Tenerife (Canary Islands).}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; policy}, volume = {89}, number = {}, pages = {184-191}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2018.07.017}, pmid = {31007600}, issn = {1462-9011}, abstract = {Heat waves and Saharan dust outbreaks have been acquiring more frequency and intensity in the Canary Islands during the last decades. Both climatic hazards are known to produce impacts on human health such as mortality (due to heat waves) and morbidity (due to dusty weather). This work addresses possible climate adaptation policies in Tenerife assuming the increasing impact of heat waves and Saharan dust outbreaks in the island under a climate change scenario. It explores the institutional setting of climate change adaptation planning in Tenerife and evaluates the statu quo of adaptation planning in the island through the engagement of key social actors. An historical review of the local and regional press articles and legislation, an in-depth round of interviews, together with questionnaires to the main social actors allows framing the social and political context in which climate change adaptation in Tenerife is embedded. Key social actors were engaged, including international organisations, atmospheric research centres, local Universities, regional and insular governments, trade unions, and environmental NGOs, among others. The main obstacles mentioned by the social actors that hinder the development of an effective climate adaptation policy address scientific knowledge, data collection and policy making, focusing on the uncertainty of climate models, the lack of epidemiological data and contrasting opinions regarding the existing climate adaptation policies. Public participation, mainstreaming of climate policies and an integrated approach between mitigation and adaptation plans were identified as key policy issues. The outcomes of this study could be meaningful for climate adaptation initiatives at local or regional level, such as the Global Covenant of Mayors, that intend to promote climate resilience through the setup of climate adaptation strategies and plans at municipality level.}, }
@article {pmid31007291, year = {2019}, author = {Feng, X and Liu, C and Xie, F and Lu, J and Chiu, LS and Tintera, G and Chen, B}, title = {Precipitation characteristic changes due to global warming in a high-resolution (16 km) ECMWF simulation.}, journal = {Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)}, volume = {145}, number = {718}, pages = {303-317}, doi = {10.1002/qj.3432}, pmid = {31007291}, issn = {0035-9009}, abstract = {Changes in precipitation amount, intensity and frequency in response to global warming are examined using global high-resolution (16 km) climate model simulations based on the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) conducted under Project Athena. Our study shows the increases of zonal-mean total precipitation in all latitudes except the northern subtropics (15°-30°N) and southern subtropics-to-midlatitudes (30°-40°S). The probability distribution function (PDF) changes in different latitudes suggest a higher occurrence of light precipitation (LP; ≤1 mm/day) and heavy precipitation (HP; ≥30 mm/day) at the expense of moderate precipitation reduction (MP; 1-30 mm/day) from Tropics to midlatitudes, but an increase in all categories of precipitation in polar regions. On the other hand, the PDF change with global warming in different precipitation climatological zones presents another image. For all regions and seasons examined, there is an HP increase at the cost of MP, but LP varies. The reduced MP in richer precipitation zones resides in the PDF peak intensities, which linearly increase with the precipitation climatology zones. In particular in the Tropics (20°S to 20°N), the precipitation PDF has a flatter distribution (i.e. HP and LP increases with MP reduction) except for the Sahara Desert. In the primary precipitation zones in the subtropics (20°-40°) of both hemispheres, precipitation over land switches toward higher intensity (HP increases, but MP and LP decrease) in both winter and summer, while precipitation over ocean in both seasons shows a flattening trend in the intensity distribution. For the major precipitation zones of the mid-to-high latitude belt (40°-70°), PDF of precipitation tends to be flatter over ocean in summer, but switches toward higher intensities over land in both summer and winter, as well as over ocean in winter.}, }
@article {pmid31005841, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, K and Pan, Q and Yu, D and Wang, L and Liu, Z and Li, X and Liu, X}, title = {Systemically modeling the relationship between climate change and wheat aphid abundance.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {674}, number = {}, pages = {392-400}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.143}, pmid = {31005841}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change influences all living beings. Wheat aphids deplete the nutritional value of wheat and affect the production of wheat in changing climate. In this study, we attempt to explain the ecological mechanisms of how climate change affects wheat aphids by simulating the relationship between climate and the abundance of wheat aphids, which will not only aid in improving wheat aphid forecasting and the effectiveness of prevention and treatment, but also help mitigate food crises. Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) are an effective tool for portraying complex systems. Using Sitobion avenae and climatological data collected in China, we made use of differential evolution (DE) algorithms to construct FCM models that directly illustrate the effect of climate on wheat aphid abundance. The relationships among climate and wheat aphids at different growth stages (I-III instar larvae, IV instar larvae with wings, IV instar larvae without wings, adult with wings, adult without wings) were established. The analysis results from the FCM models show that temperature positively influences wheat aphids most. Moreover, these models can be used to determine the numerical value of each climate factor and the abundance of wheat aphids quantitatively. Furthermore, the two overall relationship models between climate and wheat aphids were constructed and the experimental results show that natural enemies and highest daily temperature affect wheat aphids most. Natural enemies and highest daily temperature exert negative and positive impacts on wheat aphids respectively. Some interrelationships among wheat aphids at all growth stages and the internal relationships among climate factors were also shown.}, }
@article {pmid31004118, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmadi, M and Hemami, MR and Kaboli, M and Malekian, M and Zimmermann, NE}, title = {Extinction risks of a Mediterranean neo-endemism complex of mountain vipers triggered by climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {6332}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-42792-9}, pmid = {31004118}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change is among the most important drivers of biodiversity decline through shift or shrinkage in suitable habitat of species. Mountain vipers of the genus Montivipera are under extreme risk from climate changes given their evolutionary history and geographic distribution. In this study, we divided all Montivipera species into three phylogenetic-geographic Montivipera clades (PGMC; Bornmuelleri, Raddei and Xanthina) and applied an ensemble ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach under different climatic scenarios to assess changes in projected suitable habitats of these species. Based on the predicted range losses, we assessed the projected extinction risk of the species relative to IUCN Red List Criteria. Our result revealed a strong decline in suitable habitats for all PGMCs (63.8%, 79.3% and 96.8% for Xanthina, Raddei and Bornmuelleri, respectively, by 2070 and under 8.5 RCP scenario) with patterns of altitudinal range shifts in response to projected climate change. We found that the mountains close to the Mediterranean Sea are exposed to the highest threats in the future (84.6 ± 9.1 percent range loss). We also revealed that disjunct populations of Montivipera will be additionally highly isolated and fragmented in the future. We argue that leveraging climate niche projections into the risk assessment provides the opportunity to implement IUCN criteria and better assess forthcoming extinction risks of species.}, }
@article {pmid30999175, year = {2019}, author = {Purakayastha, TJ and Bera, T and Bhaduri, D and Sarkar, B and Mandal, S and Wade, P and Kumari, S and Biswas, S and Menon, M and Pathak, H and Tsang, DCW}, title = {A review on biochar modulated soil condition improvements and nutrient dynamics concerning crop yields: Pathways to climate change mitigation and global food security.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {227}, number = {}, pages = {345-365}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2019.03.170}, pmid = {30999175}, issn = {1879-1298}, abstract = {The beneficial role of biochar on improvement of soil quality, C sequestration, and enhancing crop yield is widely reported. As such there is not much consolidated information available linking biochar modulated soil condition improvement and soil nutrient availability on crop yields. The present review paper addresses the above issues by compilation of world literature on biochar and a new dimension is introduced in this review by performing a meta-analysis of published data by using multivariate statistical analysis. Hence this review is a new in its kind and is useful to the broad spectrum of readers. Generally, alkalinity in biochar increases with increase in pyrolysis temperature and majority of the biochar is alkaline in nature except a few which are acidic. The N content in many biochar was reported to be more than 4% as well as less than 0.5%. Poultry litter biochar is a rich source of P (3.12%) and K (7.40%), while paper mill sludge biochar is higher in Ca content (31.1%) and swine solids biochar in Zn (49810 mg kg-1), and Fe (74800 mg kg-1) contents. The effect of biochar on enhancing soil pH was higher in Alfisol, Ferrosol and Acrisol. Soil application of biochar could on an average increase (78%), decrease (16%), or show no effect on crop yields under different soil types. Biochar produced at a lower pyrolysis temperature could deliver greater soil nutrient availabilities than that prepared at higher temperature. Principal component analysis (PCA) of available data shows an inverse relationship between [pyrolysis temperature and soil pH], and [biochar application rate and soil cation exchange capacity]. The PCA also suggests that the original soil properties and application rate strongly control crop yield stimulations via biochar amendments. Finally, biochar application shows net soil C gains while also serving for increased plant biomass production that strongly recommends biochar as a useful soil amendment. Therefore, the application of biochar to soils emerges as a 'win-win strategy' for sustainable waste management, climate change mitigation and food security.}, }
@article {pmid30998388, year = {2019}, author = {Schmidt, CW}, title = {The Future of Stunting: Potential Scenarios under Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {127}, number = {4}, pages = {44002}, doi = {10.1289/EHP5049}, pmid = {30998388}, issn = {1552-9924}, }
@article {pmid30997525, year = {2019}, author = {Schoierer, J and Mertes, H and Wershofen, B and Böse-O'Reilly, S}, title = {[Training modules on climate change, heat, and health for medical assistants and nurses in outpatient care].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02942-w}, pmid = {30997525}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {The number of heatwaves is going to increase due to climate change and will pose a high health risk especially for elderly people. Additional risk factors like immobility, the need for care, chronic and acute diseases (worsening of symptoms), and the intake of medications lead to an increased sensitivity to heat in this particular age group. Nursing staff and medical assistants working in general practices are two important professions to reach the risk group during heatwaves and provide preventive and curative care.The &quot;Klinikum der Universität München&quot; has developed an interprofessional blended-learning program to sensitize for this topic and to enable those two professional groups to react adequately to heat events. It combines independent learning with the help of online videos and presentations and a face-to-face component for the practical application of knowledge through examples. The concept, the results, as well as the conclusion of the project, which completed in October 2018, are presented in this article.Educational programs are part of the adaption strategies to heat events. The &quot;Recommendations for the creation of Heat Action Plans for the Protection of Human Health&quot; state that advanced trainings and education of healthcare and social workers help to communicate relevant content to adequately act during heat periods. The developed educational program fulfills this demand.To enable the widest possible use, the training materials are available free of charge and can be downloaded from www.klimawandelundbildung.de .}, }
@article {pmid30995250, year = {2019}, author = {Smith, MA and Sullender, BK and Koeppen, WC and Kuletz, KJ and Renner, HM and Poe, AJ}, title = {An assessment of climate change vulnerability for Important Bird Areas in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0214573}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0214573}, pmid = {30995250}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Recently available downscaled ocean climate models for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc offer the opportunity to assess climate vulnerability for upper trophic level consumers such as marine birds. We analyzed seasonal and annual spatial projections from three climate models for two physical climate variables (seawater temperature and sea ice) and three forage variables (large copepods, euphausiids, and benthic infauna), comparing projected conditions from a recent time period (2003-2012) to a future time period (2030-2039). We focused the analyses on core areas within globally significant Important Bird Areas, and developed indices of the magnitude of projected change and vulnerability agreement among models. All three climate models indicated a high degree of change for seawater temperature warming (highest in the central and eastern Aleutian Islands) and ice loss (most significant in the eastern Bering Sea) across scales, and we found those changes to be significant for every species and virtually every core area assessed. There was low model agreement for the forage variables; while the majority of core areas were identified as climate vulnerable by one or more models (72% for large copepods, 73% for euphausiids, and 94% for benthic infauna), very few were agreed upon by all three models (only 6% of euphausiid-forager core areas). Based on the magnitude-agreement score, euphausiid biomass decline affected core areas for fulmars, gulls, and auklets, especially along the outer shelf and Aleutian Islands. Benthic biomass decline affected eiders along the inner shelf, and large copepod decline was significant for storm-petrels and auklets in the western Aleutians. Overall, 12% of core areas indicated climate vulnerability for all variables assessed. Modeling and interpreting biological parameters to project future dynamics remains complex; the strong signal for projected physical changes raised concerns about lagged responses such as distribution shifts, breeding failures, mortality events, and population declines.}, }
@article {pmid30995228, year = {2019}, author = {Lippi, CA and Stewart-Ibarra, AM and Loor, MEFB and Zambrano, JED and Lopez, NAE and Blackburn, JK and Ryan, SJ}, title = {Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e0007322}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322}, pmid = {30995228}, issn = {1935-2735}, abstract = {Arboviral disease transmission by Aedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti in Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease transmission. ENMs built with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) algorithm and a suite of environmental variables were assessed for agreement and accuracy. The top model of larval mosquito presence was projected to the year 2050 under various combinations of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. Under current climatic conditions, larval mosquitoes were not predicted in areas of high elevation in Ecuador, such as the Andes mountain range, as well as the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. However, all models projected to scenarios of future climate change demonstrated potential shifts in mosquito distribution, wherein range contractions were seen throughout most of eastern Ecuador, and areas of transitional elevation became suitable for mosquito presence. Encroachment of Ae. aegypti into mountainous terrain was estimated to affect up to 4,215 km2 under the most extreme scenario of climate change, an area which would put over 12,000 people currently living in transitional areas at risk. This distributional shift into communities at higher elevations indicates an area of concern for public health agencies, as targeted interventions may be needed to protect vulnerable populations with limited prior exposure to mosquito-borne diseases. Ultimately, the results of this study serve as a tool for informing public health policy and mosquito abatement strategies in Ecuador.}, }
@article {pmid30995158, year = {2019}, author = {Sanz-Menéndez, L and Cruz-Castro, L}, title = {The credibility of scientific communication sources regarding climate change: A population-based survey experiment.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {963662519840946}, doi = {10.1177/0963662519840946}, pmid = {30995158}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {This article analyses whether different institutional sources of scientific information have an impact on its credibility. Through a population-based survey experiment of a national representative sample of the Spanish public, we measure the credibility that citizens attribute to scientific information on the evolution of CO2 emissions disclosed by different institutional sources (business associations, government, non-government environmental organisations, international bodies and national research institutions). The findings show that an institutional credibility gap exists in science communication. We also investigate the factors accounting for the credibility of the different institutional sources by examining variables related to knowledge, interest, trust, reputation, deference, attitudes, values and personal characteristics. Exploratory regression analyses reveal that identical variables can produce different effects on the credibility of scientific information, depending on the institutional source to which it is attributed.}, }
@article {pmid30993361, year = {2019}, author = {Mücke, HG and Straff, W}, title = {[Increasing weather extremes are reasons to take health adaptation to climate change seriously].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02944-8}, pmid = {30993361}, issn = {1437-1588}, }
@article {pmid30993048, year = {2019}, author = {Tang, L and Wang, R and He, KS and Shi, C and Yang, T and Huang, Y and Zheng, P and Shi, F}, title = {Throwing light on dark diversity of vascular plants in China: predicting the distribution of dark and threatened species under global climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6731}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.6731}, pmid = {30993048}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background: As global climate change accelerates, ecologists and conservationists are increasingly investigating changes in biodiversity and predicting species distribution based on species observed at sites, but rarely consider those plant species that could potentially inhabit but are absent from these areas (i.e., the dark diversity and its distribution). Here, we estimated the dark diversity of vascular plants in China and picked up threatened dark species from the result, and applied maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to project current and future distributions of those dark species in their potential regions (those regions that have these dark species).<br><br>Methods: We used the Beals probability index to estimate dark diversity in China based on available species distribution information and explored which environmental variables had significant impacts on dark diversity by incorporating bioclimatic data into the random forest (RF) model. We collected occurrence data of threatened dark species (Eucommia ulmoides, Liriodendron chinense, Phoebe bournei, Fagus longipetiolata, Amentotaxus argotaenia, and Cathaya argyrophylla) and related bioclimatic information that can be used to predict their distributions. In addition, we used MaxEnt modeling to project their distributions in suitable areas under future (2050 and 2070) climate change scenarios.<br><br>Results: We found that every study region's dark diversity was lower than its observed species richness. In these areas, their numbers of dark species are ranging from 0 to 215, with a generally increasing trend from western regions to the east. RF results showed that temperature variables had a more significant effect on dark diversity than those associated with precipitation. The results of MaxEnt modeling showed that most threatened dark species were climatically suitable in their potential regions from current to 2070.<br><br>Discussions: The results of this study provide the first ever dark diversity patterns concentrated in China, even though it was estimated at the provincial scale. A combination of dark diversity and MaxEnt modeling is an effective way to shed light on the species that make up the dark diversity, such as projecting the distribution of specific dark species under global climate change. Besides, the combination of dark diversity and species distribution models (SDMs) may also be of value for ex situ conservation, ecological restoration, and species invasion prevention in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30992446, year = {2019}, author = {Fletcher, S and Lickley, M and Strzepek, K}, title = {Learning about climate change uncertainty enables flexible water infrastructure planning.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1782}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09677-x}, pmid = {30992446}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Water resources planning requires decision-making about infrastructure development under uncertainty in future regional climate conditions. However, uncertainty in climate change projections will evolve over the 100-year lifetime of a dam as new climate observations become available. Flexible strategies in which infrastructure is proactively designed to be changed in the future have the potential to meet water supply needs without expensive over-building. Evaluating tradeoffs between flexible and traditional static planning approaches requires extension of current paradigms for planning under climate change uncertainty which do not assess opportunities to reduce uncertainty in the future. We develop a new planning framework that assesses the potential to learn about regional climate change over time and therefore evaluates the appropriateness of flexible approaches today. We demonstrate it on a reservoir planning problem in Mombasa, Kenya. This approach identifies opportunities to reliably use incremental approaches, enabling adaptation investments to reach more vulnerable communities with fewer resources.}, }
@article {pmid30992396, year = {2019}, author = {Kwok, R}, title = {Science and Culture: Can climate change games boost public understanding?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {16}, pages = {7602-7604}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1903508116}, pmid = {30992396}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid30991313, year = {2019}, author = {Whitehead, PG and Jin, L and Bussi, G and Voepel, HE and Darby, SE and Vasilopoulos, G and Manley, R and Rodda, H and Hutton, C and Hackney, C and Tri, VPD and Hung, NN}, title = {Water quality modelling of the Mekong River basin: Climate change and socioeconomics drive flow and nutrient flux changes to the Mekong Delta.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {673}, number = {}, pages = {218-229}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.315}, pmid = {30991313}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Mekong delta is recognised as one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas, being subject to a range of environmental pressures including sea level rise, increasing population, and changes in flows and nutrients from its upland catchment. With changing climate and socioeconomics there is a need to assess how the Mekong catchment will be affected in terms of the delivery of water and nutrients into the delta system. Here we apply the Integrated Catchment model (INCA) to the whole Mekong River Basin to simulate flow and water quality, including nitrate, ammonia, total phosphorus and soluble reactive phosphorus. The impacts of climate change on all these variables have been assessed across 24 river reaches ranging from the Himalayas down to the delta in Vietnam. We used the UK Met Office PRECIS regionally coupled climate model to downscale precipitation and temperature to the Mekong catchment. This was accomplished using the Global Circulation Model GFDL-CM to provide the boundary conditions under two carbon control strategies, namely representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and a RCP 8.5 scenario. The RCP 4.5 scenario represents the carbon strategy required to meet the Paris Accord, which aims to limit peak global temperatures to below a 2 °C rise whilst seeking to pursue options that limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The RCP 8.5 scenario is associated with a larger 3-4 °C rise. In addition, we also constructed a range of socio-economic scenarios to investigate the potential impacts of changing population, atmospheric pollution, economic growth and land use change up to the 2050s. Results of INCA simulations indicate increases in mean flows of up to 24%, with flood flows in the monsoon period increasing by up to 27%, but with increasing periods of drought up to 2050. A shift in the timing of the monsoon is also simulated, with a 4 week advance in the onset of monsoon flows on average. Decreases in nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations occur primarily due to flow dilution, but fluxes of these nutrients also increase by 5%, which reflects the changing flow, land use change and population changes.}, }
@article {pmid30990800, year = {2019}, author = {Myhr, A and Røyne, F and Brandtsegg, AS and Bjerkseter, C and Throne-Holst, H and Borch, A and Wentzel, A and Røyne, A}, title = {Towards a low CO2 emission building material employing bacterial metabolism (2/2): Prospects for global warming potential reduction in the concrete industry.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0208643}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0208643}, pmid = {30990800}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The production of concrete is one of the most significant contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions. This work focuses on bio-cementation-based products and their potential to reduce global warming potential (GWP). In particular, we address a proposed bio-cementation method employing bacterial metabolism in a two-step process of limestone dissolution and recrystallisation (BioZEment). A scenario-based techno-economic analysis (TEA) is combined with a life cycle assessment (LCA), a market model and a literature review of consumers' willingness to pay, to compute the expected reduction of global GWP. Based on the LCA, the GWP of 1 ton of BioZEment is found to be 70-83% lower than conventional concrete. In the TEA, three scenarios are investigated: brick, precast and onsite production. The results indicate that brick production may be the easiest way to implement the products, but that due to high cost, the impact on global GWP will be marginal. For precast production the expected 10% higher material cost of BioZEment only produces a marginal increase in total cost. Thus, precast production has the potential to reduce global GWP from concrete production by 0-20%. Significant technological hurdles remain before BioZEment-based products can be used in onsite construction scenarios, but in this scenario, the potential GWP reduction ranges from 1 to 26%. While the potential to reduce global GWP is substantial, significant efforts need to be made both in regard to public acceptance and production methods for this potential to be unlocked.}, }
@article {pmid30989322, year = {2019}, author = {Mitter, H and Larcher, M and Schönhart, M and Stöttinger, M and Schmid, E}, title = {Exploring Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions and Adaptation Intentions: Empirical Evidence from Austria.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01158-7}, pmid = {30989322}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {The lack of timely adaptation in agriculture may hamper prosperous farm developments by neglecting risks and opportunities emerging from climate change. Understanding farmers' perceptual and socio-cognitive processes is key in order to encourage on-farm adaptation. We aim at investigating how farmers' individual cognition on climate change and adaptation as well as socio-environmental context factors affect agricultural adaptation intention and avoidance. We build on the Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC) and apply a qualitative interview approach in two Austrian farming regions. Twenty semi-structured interviews have been conducted with 29 farmers. Based on the results of the qualitative content analysis, we have identified four groups of farmers, which differ in the formation process of adaptation intention and avoidance: (i) climate change adaptors, (ii) integrative adaptors, (iii) cost-benefit calculators, and (iv) climate change fatalists. Farmers who are part of groups (i)-(iii) form adaptation intentions, whereas climate change fatalists do not intend to adapt. According to our analysis, adaptation intentions are only formed if farmers are aware of effective adaptation measures, accept personal responsibility for their farms, and evaluate adaptation costs positively (i.e. adaptation appraisal). Farmers' climate change appraisal as well as farm and regional characteristics are also perceived relevant for farmers' adaptation decisions but seem to be less important than adaptation appraisal. Therefore, we conclude that engagement strategies and outreach efforts need not only address risks and opportunities, but should also strengthen farmers' self-responsibility and offer adaptation measures tailored to the regional characteristics and the farmers' needs.}, }
@article {pmid30989260, year = {2019}, author = {Baldermann, C and Lorenz, S}, title = {[UV radiation in Germany: influences of ozone depletion and climate change and measures to protect the population].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02934-w}, pmid = {30989260}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {Ultraviolet radiation (UV radiation) can lead to numerous skin and eye diseases, both immediately and later in life. The most serious consequence is skin cancer. The risk of skin cancer increases, among other things, with increasing UV irradiance and/or with increasing outdoor exposure times. Due to the fact that UV radiation is carcinogenic, protection of the population against harmful UV exposure is an important radiation protection and health objective.In Germany, ozone depletion and climate change can also influence the UV irradiance and outdoor exposure times to such an extent that the UV exposure of the population and thus the skin cancer risk can increase. This is why protection against harmful UV exposure is even more important. Since ozone depletion and climate change can further increase the UV exposure of humans, protection against high UV exposure is even more important. A country's adaptation strategies to the health consequences of ozone depletion and climate change should therefore also include strategies to reduce UV exposure.In this review, the health effects of UV radiation and the risk factors for UV-related skin cancer are first presented. The measurement of UV irradiance and exposure in Germany is explained. The effects of ozone depletion and climate change on UV exposure are then described and measures to protect the population are presented.}, }
@article {pmid30988183, year = {2019}, author = {Randell, H and Gray, C}, title = {Climate change and educational attainment in the global tropics.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1817480116}, pmid = {30988183}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate change may negatively impact education among children via exposure to extreme temperature and precipitation conditions. We link census data from 29 countries across the global tropics to high-resolution gridded climate data to understand how climatic conditions experienced in utero and during early childhood affect educational attainment at ages 12 to 16. We show that exposure to higher-than-average temperatures during the prenatal and early-life period is associated with fewer years of schooling in Southeast Asia. In this region, a child who experiences temperatures 2 SDs above average is predicted to attain 1.5 fewer years of schooling than one who experiences average temperatures. In addition, early-life rainfall is positively correlated with attainment in West and Central Africa as well as Southeast Asia, and negatively correlated with attainment in Central America and the Caribbean. While we expected that children from the most educated households would be buffered from these effects, we discover that they tend to experience the greatest educational penalties when exposed to hotter early-life conditions and, in some regions, to drier conditions. For example, among the most educated households in West and Central Africa, predicted schooling is 1.8 years lower for children who experience early-life rainfall 2 SDs below average versus 2 SDs above average, while the difference is just 0.8 years for children from the least educated households. These results suggest that development and educational gains in the tropics could be undermined by climate change, even for better-off households.}, }
@article {pmid30986089, year = {2019}, author = {Sellers, S and Ebi, KL and Hess, J}, title = {Climate Change, Human Health, and Social Stability: Addressing Interlinkages.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {127}, number = {4}, pages = {45002}, doi = {10.1289/EHP4534}, pmid = {30986089}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Abundant historical evidence demonstrates how environmental changes can affect social stability and, in turn, human health. A rapidly growing body of literature, largely from political science and economics, is examining the potential for and consequences associated with social instability related to current climate change. However, comparatively little of this research incorporates the effects on human health or the role of health systems in influencing the magnitude and types of instability that could occur.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The objective of this commentary is to articulate a conceptual framework incorporating health outcomes and health systems into theorized and observed linkages between climate change and social instability, illustrating in particular the health effects of natural resource shortages, infectious disease outbreaks, and migration.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Although increasing evidence exists that climate change, health, and social instability are related, key questions remain about the pathways linking these factors, as well as the magnitude, causality, and directionality of relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Models seeking to explain and predict climate-related social unrest should incorporate the many linkages between climate change, human health, and social instability. Members of the environmental health research community should work closely with those in the political science and economics communities to help deepen understandings of climate-related stressors and shocks that affect instability and worsen health outcomes. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4534.}, }
@article {pmid30984444, year = {2019}, author = {Kupika, OL and Gandiwa, E and Nhamo, G and Kativu, S}, title = {Local Ecological Knowledge on Climate Change and Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Strategies Promote Resilience in the Middle Zambezi Biosphere Reserve, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Scientifica}, volume = {2019}, number = {}, pages = {3069254}, doi = {10.1155/2019/3069254}, pmid = {30984444}, issn = {2090-908X}, abstract = {Understanding local community perceptions on impacts, causes, and responses to climate change is vital for promotion of community resilience towards climate change. This study explored local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by local communities on climate change trends and impacts in the Middle Zambezi Biosphere Reserve (MZBR), Zimbabwe. The objectives of the study were to (i) investigate local community perceptions on trends and causes of climate change, (ii) identify biophysical impacts of climate change at the local level, and (iii) explore the ecosystem-based adaptation strategies towards climate change. The study used a mixed methods approach where a household questionnaire survey (n=320), key informant interviews (n=12), and focus group discussions (n=8) were used to collect data between April 2015 and October 2016. Results from the study show that local communities have observed decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures as key indicators of climate change. Local communities observed water scarcity, changes in vegetation phenology, livestock and wildlife mortalities, and food shortages due to drought as the major impacts on their livelihoods. LEK can contribute to adaptive management strategies that enhance resilience of socioecological systems (SES) in the face of climate change by providing information on the status and use of biophysical components of the environment and by highlighting potential local adaptation strategies that can sustain key livelihood practices.}, }
@article {pmid30984216, year = {2019}, author = {De Boeck, HJ and Hiltbrunner, E and Jentsch, A and Vandvik, V}, title = {Editorial: Responses to Climate Change in the Cold Biomes.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {347}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00347}, pmid = {30984216}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid30983540, year = {2019}, author = {Omazic, A and Berggren, C and Thierfelder, T and Koch, A and Evengard, B}, title = {Discrepancies in data reporting of zoonotic infectious diseases across the Nordic countries - a call for action in the era of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {78}, number = {1}, pages = {1601991}, doi = {10.1080/22423982.2019.1601991}, pmid = {30983540}, issn = {2242-3982}, abstract = {Emerging infections have in recent years caused enormous health problems. About 70% of these infections are zoonotic e.g. arise from natural foci in the environment. As climate change impacts ecosystems there is an ongoing transition of infectious diseases in humans. With the fastest changes of the climate occurring in the Arctic, this area is important to monitor for infections with potentials to be climate sensitive. To meet the increasing demand for evidence-based policies regarding climate-sensitive infectious diseases, epidemiological studies are vital. A review of registered data for nine potentially climate-sensitive infections, collected from health authorities in Denmark/Greenland, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, found that performing such studies across countries is constrained by incompatible reporting systems and differences in regulations. To address this, international standardisation is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid30983064, year = {2019}, author = {Krebs, CJ and Boonstra, R and Gilbert, BS and Kenney, AJ and Boutin, S}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on the Small Mammal Community of the Yukon Boreal Forest.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12397}, pmid = {30983064}, issn = {1749-4877}, abstract = {Long-term monitoring is critical to determine stability and sustainability of wildlife populations, and if change has occurred, why. We have followed population density changes in the small mammal community in the boreal forest of the southern Yukon for 46 years with density estimates by live trapping on 3-5 unmanipulated grids in spring and autumn. This community consists of 10 species and was responsible for 9% of the energy flow in the herbivore component of this ecosystem from 1986-96, but this increased to 38% from 2003-2014. Small mammals, although small in size, are large in the transfer of energy from plants to predators and decomposers. Four species form the bulk of the biomass. There was shift in the dominant species from the 1970s to the 2000s, with Myodes rutilus increasing in relative abundance by 22% and Peromyscus maniculatus decreasing by 22%. From 2007 to 2018 Myodes comprised 63% of the catch, Peromyscus 20%, and Microtus species 17%. Possible causes of these changes involve climate change which is increasing primary production in this boreal forest and an associated increase in the abundance of three rodent predators, marten (Martes americana), ermine (Mustela erminea), and coyotes (Canis latrans). Following and understanding these and potential future changes will require long-term monitoring studies on a large scale to measure metapopulation dynamics. The small mammal community in northern Canada is being affected by climate change and cannot remain stable. Changes will be critically dependent on food-web interactions that are species specific. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30981142, year = {2019}, author = {Withey, P and Sullivan, D and Lantz, V}, title = {Willingness to pay for protection from storm surge damages under climate change in Halifax Regional Municipality.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {241}, number = {}, pages = {44-52}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.04.007}, pmid = {30981142}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change poses risks to coastal cities due to sea-level rise and changes in storm surge. Using the contingent valuation method and payment card format, this paper seeks to estimate residents of Halifax Regional Municipality's willingness to pay (WTP) for protection from flooding impacts from storm surge. The contribution of this study is the application of this method in a previously unstudied region, to understand individuals' perception of risk and WTP to avoid damage, in order to inform policy aimed at protecting against damage due to sea-level rise and storm surge. WTP is estimated without and with the expectation of future climate change, and also for public vs. private goods. Data is analyzed and compared using OLS, Heckman two-step and Tobit Interval regression models. Results suggest that on average, WTP is roughly $12 per month per household over a ten-year period without the expectation of climate change, and roughly $13 per month per household assuming climate change will have negative impacts in the region. Individuals are most often willing to pay to protect against damages to public infrastructure, as well as power outages. Income and education do not play a major role in individuals WTP. Vulnerability to flooding and level of concern related to risky events have a statistically significant impact on WTP in all models, and gender and age have an impact on WTP in some models.}, }
@article {pmid30980766, year = {2019}, author = {Lin, MJ and Torbeck, RL and Dubin, DP and Lin, CE and Khorasani, H}, title = {Climate Change and Skin Cancer.}, journal = {Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology : JEADV}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jdv.15622}, pmid = {30980766}, issn = {1468-3083}, abstract = {Over the past decade, climate change has accelerated rapidly. With global greenhouse gas emissions rising, average surface temperature has increased by nearly 1° Celsius since the 19th century. Rising global temperatures and other anthropogenic changes like stratospheric ozone depletion carry significant health risks, including factors that may increase the likelihood and severity of skin cancers. Solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is known to be one of the strongest contributors to skin cancer. Over the past century, the emission of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) from solvents, aerosol sprays and coolants has caused extensive depletion of the ozone layer, reducing its ability to filter harmful UVR. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30980113, year = {2019}, author = {Schach, H}, title = {[Organised neighbourhood support during extreme weather events in rural areas : Using the &quot;volunteers on-site system&quot; to strategically adapt to crisis situations caused by climate change].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02936-8}, pmid = {30980113}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. The impacts are globally and regionally visible through more and more frequent extreme weather events, be they devastating storms, longer periods of cold and heat or prolonged periods of drought alternating with heavy rain and flooding. In addition to the urgent need for climate change mitigation, therefore, the question has been raised for some time as to which measures cities and municipalities, rural districts and regions can use to prepare themselves against the consequences of climate change.The region of Northern Hesse developed strategies and measures for climate adaptation at an early stage as part of the KLIMZUG (shaping climate change for the future in regions) federal support programme. The question remains open as to what will happen in rural regions - and especially in remote places - when there is no more civil protection assistance available in the event of a disaster either because they are needed elsewhere, roads are impassable or electricity, telephone and Internet connections are no longer functioning. For this case, a project consortium led by the Regionalmanagement Nordhessen GmbH has now developed the &quot;volunteers on-site system&quot; (Freiwilligen-vor-Ort-System [FvOS]) as an organised form of neighbourhood support.This model project, which is unique in Germany, is intended to show how care for people in need of help and care can be ensured in rural areas in the event of a disaster.The project has sensitised citizens and task forces to this task and initiated a process that is intended to lead to more self-responsibility, but also safety in the event of a disaster situation. FvOS is intended to signal the need for climate change mitigation throughout Germany.}, }
@article {pmid30978188, year = {2019}, author = {Lee, J and de Carvalho, M}, title = {Technological improvements or climate change? Bayesian modeling of time-varying conformance to Benford's Law.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0213300}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0213300}, pmid = {30978188}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {We develop a Bayesian time-varying model that tracks periods at which conformance to Benford's Law is lower. Our methods are motivated by recent attempts to assess how the quality and homogeneity of large datasets may change over time by using the First-Digit Rule. We resort to a smooth multinomial logistic model which captures the dynamics governing the proportion of first digits, and apply the proposed model to global tropical cyclone tracks over the past two centuries. Our findings indicate that cumulative technological improvements may have only had a moderate influence on the homogeneity of the dataset, and hint that recent heterogeneity could be due to other drivers.}, }
@article {pmid30977006, year = {2019}, author = {Gorh, D and Baruah, KK}, title = {Estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emission from wetland rice paddies with reference to global warming potential.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-05026-z}, pmid = {30977006}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are two important greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute largely to global warming and climate change. The impact of physiological characteristics of rice genotypes on global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) is not well documented. A 2-year field experiment was conducted with eight summer rice varieties: Dinanath, Joymoti, Kanaklata, Swarnabh, IR 64, Tapaswami (modern varieties), Number 9, and Jagilee Boro (indigenous varieties) for two successive seasons (December-June, 2015-2016 and December-June, 2016-2017) to estimate their GWP and GHGI. The GWP of the rice varieties ranged from 841.52 to 1288.67 kg CO2-equiv. ha-1 and GHGI from 0.184 to 0.854 kg CO2-equiv. kg-1 grain yield. Significant differences (p < 0.05) in seasonal GHG emission, GWP, GHGI, CEE (carbon equivalent emission), photosynthetic efficiency, stomatal conductance, transpiration rate, and grain productivity among the rice varieties were observed during the investigation. A good correlation of GWP (p < 0.01) was recorded with rate of stomatal conductance and transpiration rate of the varieties. The present study reveals a strong relationship between plant biomass (p < 0.01) with GWP and CEE of the rice varieties. The variety IR 64 and Number 9 are identified as the most suitable variety with lowest GWP (909.85 and 876.68 kg CO2-equiv. ha-1 respectively) and GHGI (0.192 and 0.227 kg CO2-equiv. kg-1 grain yield respectively) accompanied by higher grain productivity (4839 and 3867 kg ha-1 respectively). Observations from the study suggest that agricultural productivity and GHG mitigation can be simultaneously achieved by proper selection of rice genotypes.}, }
@article {pmid30976790, year = {2019}, author = {Semenza, JC and Ebi, KL}, title = {Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry: Implications for public health.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jtm/taz026}, pmid = {30976790}, issn = {1708-8305}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is not only increasing ambient temperature, but is also accelerating the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy precipitation and droughts, and causing sea level rise, which can lead to population displacement. Climate change-related reductions in land productivity and habitability and in food and water security can also interact with demographic, economic, and social factors to increase migration. In addition to migration, climate change has also implications for travel and the risk of disease. This article discusses the impact of climate change on migration and travel with implications for public health practice.<br><br>METHODS: Literature review.<br><br>RESULTS: Migrants may be at increased risk of communicable and non-communicable diseases, due to factors in their country of origin, their country of destination or conditions they experience during migration. Although migration has not been a significant driver of communicable disease outbreaks to date, public health authorities need to ensure that effective screening and vaccination programmes for priority communicable diseases are in place.Population growth coupled with socio-economic development is increasing travel and tourism, and advances in technology have increased global connectivity and reduced the time required to cover long distances. At the same time, as a result of climate change, many temperate regions, including high-income countries, are now suitable for vector-borne disease transmission. This is providing opportunities for importation of vectors and pathogens from endemic areas that can lead to cases or outbreaks of communicable diseases with which health professionals may be unfamiliar.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Health systems need to be prepared for the potential population health consequences of migration, travel and tourism and the impact of climate change on these. Integrated surveillance, early detection of cases and other public health interventions are critical to protect population health and prevent and control communicable disease outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid30972111, year = {2018}, author = {Nolte, CG and Spero, TL and Bowden, JH and Mallard, MS and Dolwick, PD}, title = {The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous U.S. at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways.}, journal = {Atmospheric chemistry and physics}, volume = {18}, number = {20}, pages = {15471-15489}, doi = {10.5194/acp-18-15471-2018}, pmid = {30972111}, issn = {1680-7316}, abstract = {The potential impacts of climate change on regional ozone (O3) and fine particulate (PM2.5) air quality in the United States are investigated by linking global climate simulations with regional scale meteorological and chemical transport models. Regional climate at 2000 and at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale 11-year time slices from the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The downscaled meteorology is then used with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate air quality during each of these 11-year periods. The analysis isolates the future air quality differences arising from climate-driven changes in meteorological parameters and specific natural emissions sources that are strongly influenced by meteorology. Other factors that will affect future air quality, such as anthropogenic air pollutant emissions and chemical boundary conditions, are unchanged across the simulations. The regional climate fields represent historical daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures well, with mean biases less than 2 K for most regions of the U.S. and most seasons of the year and good representation of variability. Precipitation in the central and eastern U.S. is well simulated for the historical period, with seasonal and annual biases generally less than 25%, with positive biases exceeding 25% in the western U.S. throughout the year and in part of the eastern U.S. during summer. Maximum daily 8-h ozone (MDA8 O3) is projected to increase during summer and autumn in the central and eastern U.S. The increase in summer mean MDA8 O3 is largest under RCP8.5, exceeding 4 ppb in some locations, with smaller seasonal mean increases of up to 2 ppb simulated during autumn and changes during spring generally less than 1 ppb. Increases are magnified at the upper end of the O3 distribution, particularly where projected increases in temperature are greater. Annual average PM2.5 concentration changes range from -1.0 to 1.0 μg m-3. Organic PM2.5 concentrations increase during summer and autumn due to increased biogenic emissions. Aerosol nitrate decreases during winter, accompanied by lesser decreases in ammonium and sulfate, due to warmer temperatures causing increased partitioning to the gas phase. Among meteorological factors examined to account for modeled changes in pollution, temperature and isoprene emissions are found to have the largest changes and the greatest impact on O3 concentrations.}, }
@article {pmid30973922, year = {2019}, author = {Miranda, LS and Imperatriz-Fonseca, VL and Giannini, TC}, title = {Climate change impact on ecosystem functions provided by birds in southeastern Amazonia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0215229}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0215229}, pmid = {30973922}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Although the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are increasing worldwide, few studies have attempted to forecast these impacts on Amazon Tropical Forest. In this study, we estimated the impact of climate change on Amazonian avian assemblages considering range shifts, species loss, vulnerability of ecosystem functioning, future effectiveness of current protected areas and potential climatically stable areas for conservation actions. Species distribution modelling based on two algorithms and three different scenarios of climate change was used to forecast 501 avian species, organized on main ecosystem functions (frugivores, insectivores and nectarivores) for years 2050 and 2070. Considering the entire study area, we estimated that between 4 and 19% of the species will find no suitable habitat. Inside the currently established protected areas, species loss could be over 70%. Our results suggest that frugivores are the most sensitive guild, which could bring consequences on seed dispersal functions and on natural regeneration. Moreover, we identified the western and northern parts of the study area as climatically stable. Climate change will potentially affect avian assemblages in southeastern Amazonia with detrimental consequences to their ecosystem functions. Information provided here is essential to conservation practitioners and decision makers to help on planning their actions.}, }
@article {pmid30972894, year = {2019}, author = {McNicol, L}, title = {It is time to protect our children from climate change with a national school-based heatwave policy.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {290-291}, doi = {10.1002/hpja.170}, pmid = {30972894}, issn = {1036-1073}, }
@article {pmid30971717, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, R and Liang, T and Guo, J and Xie, H and Feng, Q and Aimaiti, Y}, title = {Publisher Correction: Grassland dynamics in response to climate change and human activities in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2014.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {6181}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-41390-z}, pmid = {30971717}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.}, }
@article {pmid30970482, year = {2019}, author = {Shen, X and Liu, B and Xue, Z and Jiang, M and Lu, X and Zhang, Q}, title = {Spatiotemporal variation in vegetation spring phenology and its response to climate change in freshwater marshes of Northeast China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {666}, number = {}, pages = {1169-1177}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.265}, pmid = {30970482}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding wetland vegetation phenology and its response to climate change is important to predict the changes of wetland vegetation in wetland regions. Using the NDVI and climate data, this work studied the spatiotemporal change of start date of vegetation growing season (SOS) and explored the possible effects of climate change on the SOS over freshwater marshes of Northeast China. The results showed that the SOS significantly advanced by 0.52 day per year throughout the freshwater marshes of Northeast China during 2001 to 2016. The significant advancing of SOS was mainly concentrated in freshwater marshes of the Khingan Mountains (the Greater Khingan Mountains and the Lesser Khingan Mountains) and central arid or semi-arid regions (Songnen plain and Liaohe plain) in Northeast China. By contrast, there were weak delay trends of SOS in freshwater marshes of Eastern Inner Mongolia region, and Sanjiang plain. We found that precipitation was a dominant factor determining the SOS in arid or semi-arid regions (Songnen plain and Liaohe plain), while temperature played a bigger role in determining the SOS in Sanjiang plain and three cold mountains of the Northeast China. During the study period, increasing precipitation in the winter and spring contributed to advancing SOS in Songnen plain and Liaohe plain; the decrease of temperature from December to April explain the delaying SOS in freshwater marshes of Sanjiang Plain; the weak warming of temperature between November and May account for the advancing SOS of freshwater marshes in three cold mountains. In freshwater marshes of cold and the most arid region of Northeast China (Eastern Inner Mongolia), the SOS was influenced by both precipitation and temperature. Decreasing precipitation between January and April, as well as temperature decreases in March and April explain the delay of SOS in freshwater marshes of Eastern Inner Mongolia region.}, }
@article {pmid30968450, year = {2019}, author = {Schachtel, A and Boos, MD}, title = {Pediatric dermatology and climate change: An argument for the pediatric subspecialist as public health advocate.}, journal = {Pediatric dermatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/pde.13819}, pmid = {30968450}, issn = {1525-1470}, abstract = {The October 2018 report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts significant threats to human health secondary to anthropogenic global warming; children have been and will continue to be disproportionately affected by these weather-related changes. Multiple physician groups have acknowledged climate change as a public health issue, calling upon providers to educate their communities about this looming health crisis while also reducing their individual carbon footprints. A significant body of literature has also documented the adverse dermatologic consequences of a warmer planet, highlighting the importance of pediatric dermatologists in addressing climate change. Here, we summarize the rationale for the pediatric dermatologist as public health advocate, providing specific actionable items through which our specialty can positively address the climate change crisis and in turn protect the health of our patients now and in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30966984, year = {2019}, author = {Taccoen, A and Piedallu, C and Seynave, I and Perez, V and Gégout-Petit, A and Nageleisen, LM and Bontemps, JD and Gégout, JC}, title = {Background mortality drivers of European tree species: climate change matters.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1900}, pages = {20190386}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2019.0386}, pmid = {30966984}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {Increases in tree mortality rates have been highlighted in different biomes over the past decades. However, disentangling the effects of climate change on the temporal increase in tree mortality from those of management and forest dynamics remains a challenge. Using a modelling approach taking tree and stand characteristics into account, we sought to evaluate the impact of climate change on background mortality for the most common European tree species. We focused on background mortality, which is the mortality observed in a stand in the absence of abrupt disturbances, to avoid confusion with mortality events unrelated to long-term changes in temperature and rainfall. We studied 372 974 trees including 7312 dead trees from forest inventory data surveyed across France between 2009 and 2015. Factors related to competition, stand characteristics, management intensity, and site conditions were the expected preponderant drivers of mortality. Taking these main drivers into account, we detected a climate change signal on 45% of the 43 studied species, explaining an average 6% of the total modelled mortality. For 18 out of the 19 species sensitive to climate change, we evidenced greater mortality with increasing temperature or decreasing rainfall. By quantifying the mortality excess linked to the current climate change for European temperate forest tree species, we provide new insights into forest vulnerability that will prove useful for adapting forest management to future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30966963, year = {2019}, author = {Kelly, M}, title = {Adaptation to climate change through genetic accommodation and assimilation of plastic phenotypes.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1768}, pages = {20180176}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0176}, pmid = {30966963}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Theory suggests that evolutionary changes in phenotypic plasticity could either hinder or facilitate evolutionary rescue in a changing climate. Nevertheless, the actual role of evolving plasticity in the responses of natural populations to climate change remains unresolved. Direct observations of evolutionary change in nature are rare, making it difficult to assess the relative contributions of changes in trait means versus changes in plasticity to climate change responses. To address this gap, this review explores several proxies that can be used to understand evolving plasticity in the context of climate change, including space for time substitutions, experimental evolution and tests for genomic divergence at environmentally responsive loci. Comparisons among populations indicate a prominent role for divergence in environmentally responsive traits in local adaptation to climatic gradients. Moreover, genomic comparisons among such populations have identified pervasive divergence in the regulatory regions of environmentally responsive loci. Taken together, these lines of evidence suggest that divergence in plasticity plays a prominent role in adaptation to climatic gradients over space, indicating that evolving plasticity is also likely to play a key role in adaptive responses to climate change through time. This suggests that genetic variation in plastic responses to the environment (G × E) might be an important predictor of species' vulnerabilities to climate-driven decline or extinction. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.}, }
@article {pmid30966960, year = {2019}, author = {Fuxjäger, L and Wanzenböck, S and Ringler, E and Wegner, KM and Ahnelt, H and Shama, LNS}, title = {Within-generation and transgenerational plasticity of mate choice in oceanic stickleback under climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1768}, pages = {20180183}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0183}, pmid = {30966960}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Plasticity, both within and across generations, can shape sexual traits involved in mate choice and reproductive success, and thus direct measures of fitness. Especially, transgenerational plasticity (TGP), where parental environment influences offspring plasticity in future environments, could compensate for otherwise negative effects of environmental change on offspring sexual traits. We conducted a mate choice experiment using stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) with different thermal histories (ambient 17°C or elevated 21°C) within and across generations under simulated ocean warming using outdoor mesocosms. Parentage analysis of egg clutches revealed that maternal developmental temperature and reproductive (mesocosm) environment affected egg size, with females that developed at 17°C laying smaller eggs in 21°C mesocosms, likely owing to metabolic costs at elevated temperature. Paternal developmental temperature interacted with the reproductive environment to influence mating success, particularly under simulated ocean warming, with males that developed at 21°C showing lower overall mating success compared with 17°C males, but higher mating success in 21°C mesocosms. Furthermore, mating success of males was influenced by the interaction between F1 developmental temperature and F0 parent acclimation temperature, demonstrating the potential role of both TGP and within-generation plasticity in shaping traits involved in sexual selection and mate choice, potentially facilitating rapid responses to environmental change. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.}, }
@article {pmid30966957, year = {2019}, author = {Bonamour, S and Chevin, LM and Charmantier, A and Teplitsky, C}, title = {Phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change: the importance of cue variation.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1768}, pages = {20180178}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0178}, pmid = {30966957}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Phenotypic plasticity is a major mechanism of response to global change. However, current plastic responses will only remain adaptive under future conditions if informative environmental cues are still available. We briefly summarize current knowledge of the evolutionary origin and mechanistic underpinnings of environmental cues for phenotypic plasticity, before highlighting the potentially complex effects of global change on cue availability and reliability. We then illustrate some of these aspects with a case study, comparing plasticity of blue tit breeding phenology in two contrasted habitats: evergreen and deciduous forests. Using long-term datasets, we investigate the climatic factors linked to the breeding phenology of the birds and their main food source. Blue tits occupying different habitats differ extensively in the cues affecting laying date plasticity, as well as in the reliability of these cues as predictors of the putative driver of selective pressure, the date of caterpillar peak. The temporal trend for earlier laying date, detected only in the evergreen populations, is explained by increased temperature during their cue windows. Our results highlight the importance of integrating ecological mechanisms shaping variation in plasticity if we are to understand how global change will affect plasticity and its consequences for population biology. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.}, }
@article {pmid30965264, year = {2019}, author = {Pires, JCM}, title = {Negative emissions technologies: A complementary solution for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {672}, number = {}, pages = {502-514}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.004}, pmid = {30965264}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas (GHG) and its atmospheric concentration is currently 50% higher than pre-industrial levels. The continuous GHGs emissions may lead to severe and irreversible consequences in the climate system. The reduction of GHG emissions may be not enough to mitigate climate change. Consequently, besides carbon capture from large emission sources, atmospheric CO2 capture may be also required. To meet the target defined for climate change mitigation, the removal of 10 Gt·yr-1 of CO2 globally by mid-century and 20 Gt·yr-1 of CO2 globally by the end of century. The technologies applied with this aim are known as negative emission technologies (NETs), as they lead to achieve a negative balance of carbon in atmosphere. This paper aims to present the recent research works regarding NETs, focusing the research findings achieved by academic groups and projects. Besides several advantages, NETs present high operational cost and its scale-up should be tested to know the real effect on climate change mitigation. With current knowledge, no single process should be seen as a solution. Research efforts should be performed to evaluate and reduce NETs costs and environmental impact.}, }
@article {pmid30964399, year = {2019}, author = {Jones, R}, title = {Climate change and Indigenous Health Promotion.}, journal = {Global health promotion}, volume = {26}, number = {3_suppl}, pages = {73-81}, doi = {10.1177/1757975919829713}, pmid = {30964399}, issn = {1757-9767}, abstract = {Climate change poses a serious threat to the health and well-being of Indigenous peoples around the world. Despite living in diverse contexts, Indigenous peoples face a number of common challenges. Disproportionate threats from climate change exist due to a range of factors including unique relationships with the natural environment, socioeconomic deprivation, a greater existing burden of disease, poorer access to and quality of health care, and political marginalization. Responses to climate change at global, national, and local levels also threaten Indigenous people's rights. While climate action presents many opportunities to improve health and reduce inequities, there is also significant potential for climate mitigation and adaptation policies to inflict harm on Indigenous peoples. An important aspect of this is the impact on traditional lands, which are acknowledged as a fundamental determinant of Indigenous health and well-being. This article seeks to elucidate the relationships between climate change and Indigenous health and to inform health promotion solutions to achieve climate justice for Indigenous peoples. The underpinning analysis is founded on a Kaupapa Māori positioning, which seeks transformative change and involves critiquing Western knowledges and structures that undermine Indigenous rights. A central theme is that anthropogenic climate change is intimately connected to the ideologies, systems and practices of colonialism, and that the impacts on Indigenous peoples can be conceptualized as an intensification of the process of colonization. It is not possible to understand and address climate-related health impacts for Indigenous peoples without examining this broader context of colonial oppression, marginalization and dispossession. The challenge for health promotion is to engage in a process of decolonization. This involves deconstructing its own systems and practices to avoid reinforcing colonialism and perpetuating inequities. It also requires health promotion practitioners to support Indigenous self-determination and recognize Indigenous knowledges as a critical foundation for climate change and health solutions.}, }
@article {pmid30963929, year = {2019}, author = {Qiu, Z and Coleman, MA and Provost, E and Campbell, AH and Kelaher, BP and Dalton, SJ and Thomas, T and Steinberg, PD and Marzinelli, EM}, title = {Future climate change is predicted to affect the microbiome and condition of habitat-forming kelp.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1896}, pages = {20181887}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2018.1887}, pmid = {30963929}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {Climate change is driving global declines of marine habitat-forming species through physiological effects and through changes to ecological interactions, with projected trajectories for ocean warming and acidification likely to exacerbate such impacts in coming decades. Interactions between habitat-formers and their microbiomes are fundamental for host functioning and resilience, but how such relationships will change in future conditions is largely unknown. We investigated independent and interactive effects of warming and acidification on a large brown seaweed, the kelp Ecklonia radiata, and its associated microbiome in experimental mesocosms. Microbial communities were affected by warming and, during the first week, by acidification. During the second week, kelp developed disease-like symptoms previously observed in the field. The tissue of some kelp blistered, bleached and eventually degraded, particularly under the acidification treatments, affecting photosynthetic efficiency. Microbial communities differed between blistered and healthy kelp for all treatments, except for those under future conditions of warming and acidification, which after two weeks resembled assemblages associated with healthy hosts. This indicates that changes in the microbiome were not easily predictable as the severity of future climate scenarios increased. Future ocean conditions can change kelp microbiomes and may lead to host disease, with potentially cascading impacts on associated ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30962890, year = {2019}, author = {Zhu, RB and Wang, Q and Guan, WB and Mao, Y and Tian, B and Cheng, JM and El-Kassaby, YA}, title = {Conservation of genetic diversity hotspots of the high-valued relic yellowhorn (Xanthoceras sorbifolium) considering climate change predictions.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {3251-3263}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4944}, pmid = {30962890}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Genetic structure and major climate factors may contribute to the distribution of genetic diversity of a highly valued oil tree species Xanthoceras sorbifolium (yellowhorn). Long-term over utilization along with climate change is affecting the viability of yellowhorn wild populations. To preserve the species known and unknown valuable gene pools, the identification of genetic diversity &quot;hotspots&quot; is a prerequisite for their consideration as in situ conservation high priority. Chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) diversity was high among 38 natural populations (Hd = 0.717, K = 4.616, Tajmas' D = -0.22) and characterized by high genetic divergence (FST = 0.765) and relatively low gene flow (Nm = 0.03), indicating populations isolation reflecting the species' habitat fragmentation and inbreeding depression. Six out of the studied 38 populations are defined as genetic diversity &quot;hotspots.&quot; The number and geographic direction of cpDNA mutation steps supported the species southwest to northeast migration history. Climatic factors such as extreme minimum temperature over 30 years indicated that the identified genetic &quot;hotspots&quot; are expected to experience 5°C temperature increase in next following 50 years. The results identified vulnerable genetic diversity &quot;hotspots&quot; and provided fundamental information for the species' future conservation and breeding activities under the anticipated climate change. More specifically, the role of breeding as a component of a gene resource management strategy aimed at fulfilling both utilization and conservation goals.}, }
@article {pmid30962375, year = {2019}, author = {Ballew, MT and Goldberg, MH and Rosenthal, SA and Gustafson, A and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Systems thinking as a pathway to global warming beliefs and attitudes through an ecological worldview.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1819310116}, pmid = {30962375}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Prior research has found that systems thinking, the tendency to perceive phenomena as interconnected and dynamic, is associated with a general proenvironmental orientation. However, less is known about its relationship with public understanding of climate change and/or whether this relationship varies across people with different political views. Because climate change is a highly politicized issue, it is also important to understand the extent to which systems thinking can foster acceptance of climate science across political lines. Using an online sample of US adults (n = 1,058), we tested the degree to which systems thinking predicts global warming beliefs and attitudes (e.g., believing that global warming is happening, that it is human-caused, etc.), independent of an ecological worldview (i.e., the New Ecological Paradigm). We found that although systems thinking is positively related to global warming beliefs and attitudes, the relationships are almost fully explained by an ecological worldview. Indirect effects of systems thinking are consistently strong across political ideologies and party affiliations, although slightly stronger for conservatives and Republicans than for liberals and Democrats, respectively. We did not find evidence of the converse: Systems thinking does not seem to mediate the relationship between an ecological worldview and global warming beliefs and attitudes. Together, these findings suggest that systems thinking may support the adoption of global warming beliefs and attitudes indirectly by helping to develop an ecological ethic that people should take care of and not abuse the environment.}, }
@article {pmid30962202, year = {2019}, author = {Mercer, C}, title = {How health care contributes to climate change.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {191}, number = {14}, pages = {E403-E404}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-5722}, pmid = {30962202}, issn = {1488-2329}, }
@article {pmid30956938, year = {2018}, author = {Woollings, T and Barriopedro, D and Methven, J and Son, SW and Martius, O and Harvey, B and Sillmann, J and Lupo, AR and Seneviratne, S}, title = {Blocking and its Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Current climate change reports}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {287-300}, doi = {10.1007/s40641-018-0108-z}, pmid = {30956938}, issn = {2198-6061}, abstract = {Purpose of Review: Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding blocking under climate change, with the aim of providing an overview for those working in related fields.<br><br>Recent Findings: Several avenues have been identified by which blocking can be improved in numerical models, though a fully reliable simulation remains elusive (at least, beyond a few days lead time). Models are therefore starting to provide some useful information on how blocking and its impacts may change in the future, although deeper understanding of the processes at play will be needed to increase confidence in model projections. There are still major uncertainties regarding the processes most important to the onset, maintenance and decay of blocking and advances in our understanding of atmospheric dynamics, for example in the role of diabatic processes, continue to inform the modelling and prediction efforts.<br><br>Summary: The term 'blocking' covers a diverse array of synoptic patterns, and hence a bewildering range of indices has been developed to identify events. Results are hence not considered fully trustworthy until they have been found using several different methods. Examples of such robust results are the underestimation of blocking by models, and an overall decline in future occurrence, albeit with a complex regional and seasonal variation. In contrast, hemispheric trends in blocking over the recent historical period are not supported by different methods, and natural variability will likely dominate regional variations over the next few decades.}, }
@article {pmid30959295, year = {2019}, author = {Abd-Elaty, I and Sallam, GAH and Straface, S and Scozzari, A}, title = {Effects of climate change on the design of subsurface drainage systems in coastal aquifers in arid/semi-arid regions: Case study of the Nile delta.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {672}, number = {}, pages = {283-295}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.483}, pmid = {30959295}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The influence of climate change on the availability and quality of both surface- and ground-water resources is well recognized nowadays. In particular, the mitigation of saline water intrusion mechanisms in coastal aquifers is a recurrent environmental issue. In the case of the Nile delta, the presence of sea level rise and the perspective of other human-induced stressors, such as the next operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, are threats to be taken into account for guaranteeing resilient agricultural practices within the future possible scenarios. Subsurface drainage offers a practical solution to the problem of upward artesian water movement and the simultaneous downward flow of excess irrigation water, to mitigate the salinization in the root zone. Subsurface draining systems can contribute to mitigate the vulnerability to climate change and to the increased anthropic pressure insofar they are able to receive the incremented flow rate due to the foreseen scenarios of sea level rise, recharge and subsidence. This paper introduces a rational design of subsurface drainage systems in coastal aquifers, taking into account the increment of flow in the draining pipes due to future possible conditions of sea level rise, artificial recharge and subsidence within time horizons that are compatible with the expected lifespan of a buried drainage system. The approach proposed in this paper is characterized by the assessment of the incremental flow through the drains as a function of various possible scenarios at different time horizons. Our calculations show that the impact on the discharge into the existing subsurface drainage system under the new foreseen conditions is anything but negligible. Thus, future climate-related scenarios deeply impact the design of such hydraulic structures, and must be taken into account in the frame of the next water management strategies for safeguarding agricultural activities in the Nile delta and in similar coastal contexts.}, }
@article {pmid30958243, year = {2018}, author = {Meade, J and VanDerWal, J and Storlie, C and Williams, S and Gourret, A and Krockenberger, A and Welbergen, JA}, title = {Substantial reduction in thermo-suitable microhabitat for a rainforest marsupial under climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {20180189}, doi = {10.1098/rsbl.2018.0189}, pmid = {30958243}, issn = {1744-957X}, abstract = {Increases in mean temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change increase the frequency and severity of temperature extremes. Although extreme temperature events are likely to become increasingly important drivers of species' response to climate change, the impacts are poorly understood owing mainly to a lack of understanding of species' physiological responses to extreme temperatures. The physiological response of Pseudochirops archeri (green ringtail possum) to temperature extremes has been well studied, demonstrating that heterothermy is used to reduce evaporative water loss at temperatures greater than 30°C. Dehydration is likely to limit survival when animals are exposed to a critical thermal regime of ≥30°C, for ≥5 h, for ≥4 consecutive days. In this study, we use this physiological information to assess P. archeri's vulnerability to climate change. We identify areas of current thermo-suitable habitat (validated using sightings), then estimate future thermo-suitable habitat for P. archeri, under four emission scenarios. Our projections indicate that up to 86% of thermo-suitable habitat could be lost by 2085, a serious conservation concern for the species. We demonstrate the potential applicability of our approach for generating spatio-temporally explicit predictions of the vulnerability of species to extreme temperature events, providing a focus for efficient and targeted conservation and habitat restoration management.}, }
@article {pmid30956567, year = {2019}, author = {Holman, IP and Brown, C and Carter, TR and Harrison, PA and Rounsevell, M}, title = {Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {711-721}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-018-1328-4}, pmid = {30956567}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of climate change adaptation, and the ways in which representation of adaptation in models can be improved. The review shows that real-world adaptive responses can be differentiated along a number of dimensions including intent or purpose, timescale, spatial scale, beneficiaries and providers, type of action, and sector. However, models of climate change consequences for land use and water management currently provide poor coverage of these dimensions, instead modelling adaptation in an artificial and subjective manner. While different modelling approaches do capture distinct aspects of the adaptive process, they have done so in relative isolation, without producing improved unified representations. Furthermore, adaptation is often assumed to be objective, effective and consistent through time, with only a minority of models taking account of the human decisions underpinning the choice of adaptation measures (14%), the triggers that motivate actions (38%) or the time-lags and constraints that may limit their uptake and effectiveness (14%). No models included adaptation to take advantage of beneficial opportunities of climate change. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future model development that may enhance realism within models, while also advancing our understanding of the processes and effectiveness of adaptation to a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid30954727, year = {2019}, author = {Ashrafuzzaman, M and Furini, GL}, title = {Climate change and human health linkages in the context of globalization: An overview from global to southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {127}, number = {}, pages = {402-411}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.03.020}, pmid = {30954727}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {This article attempts to analyze the main impacts of climate change on public health starting with global and going through local by analyzing coastal communities in the area of influence of Sundarbans, located in southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. In dealing with paramount health problems caused by climate change, we discuss what are the major challenges faced by different actors. From the opinion of globalization and world system theory it will be argued that developing countries are facing major defiance in terms of mitigation and adaptation, including human health problems. Those living in developing world, as the case of Bangladesh, responsible for the lowest contributions to climate change, are already suffering the most. This paper is based on bibliographical and statistical review, and uses primary data collected from field and secondary from publications, books, scientific journals, international reports. In this paper we also focused that poor countries shall not be liable for the damages caused by carbon emissions already trapped into atmosphere, a historic problem caused by developed world, so we expect that multi-governance platforms should make mutual efforts to promote health in partnership with local institutions in order to solve the climatic crisis.}, }
@article {pmid30949718, year = {2019}, author = {Herrmann, A and de Jong, L and Kowalski, C and Sauerborn, R}, title = {[Health Co-benefits of climate change mitigation measures-how houeseholds and policy makers can benefit].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02929-7}, pmid = {30949718}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {In discussions on climate change and health, negative impacts of climate change usually dominate the discussion. However to motivate households and policy makers to climate action, one should also point out the health opportunities of climate change mitigation measures.We draw on the current literature to present the concept of health co-benefits of climate change mitigation measures (A). In the empirical part of the paper we first use a quantitative and qualitative text analysis to look at the link of climate change and health in EU legislation from 1990-2015 (B). We then describe results from qualitative in-depth interviews with 18 German households, in which we investigate how knowledge of health co-benefits influences households in implementing climate action. The interviews were part of a bigger European mixed-methods study.A: From the household perspective, we define direct health co-benefits, which can be influenced and experienced by an individual, and indirect health co-benefits, which are dependent on societal action. B: Health is mentioned in EU climate change legislation. However, EU legislation only touches upon health co-benefits in general and doesn't mention direct health co-benefits at all. C: Households consider health co-benefits in their lifestyle decisions. Yet, as there are many determinants of lifestyle, information on health co-benefits alone does not seem to be sufficient to trigger climate friendly and healthy behavior.First, synergies between health and climate change mitigation need to be recognized on a political level. Then, effective intersectoral policies need to be implemented to support households on multiple levels in implementing healthy and climate-friendly lifestyles.}, }
@article {pmid30947054, year = {2019}, author = {Naujokienė, V and Šarauskis, E and Bleizgys, R and Sasnauskienė, J}, title = {Soil biotreatment effectiveness for reducing global warming potential from main polluting tillage operations in life cycle assessment phase.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {671}, number = {}, pages = {805-817}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.338}, pmid = {30947054}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In order to reduce global warming potential (GWP) due to anthropogenic and natural factors in the cultivation of winter wheat and rapeseed, proved effectiveness of soil biotreatment with different composition of bio-solutions. It was reduced greenhouse gases (GHG) through life cycle impact categories from the main polluting agricultural operations on deeply lukewarm soaked soil. According to the impact diapason evaluated the main indicators such as human toxicity air (HTA), ecotoxicity water chronic (EWC), global warming potential, ecotoxicity water acute (EWA), ozone formation (OF), human toxicity water (HTW), ecotoxicity soil chronic (ESC), human toxicity soil (HTS), terrestrial eutrophication (TE), acidification (A). Assessed researches for three seasons which carried out in production experimental areas. It was appreciated in interrelated stages according to LST EN ISO 14040:2007 standard. Mass balance for one functional unit (FU) was tonne of wheat and rapeseed. SimaPro 8.05 life cycle assessment (LCA) Software was used for comparing soil biotreatment efectiveness using different bio-solutions and its mixes with control. The aim of the assessment - to prove the soil biotreatment effectiveness for reducing main life cycle indicators from tillage operations. It was identificated that phase of field operation is one of the main factor to the global impact. Disc harrowing consists approximately 26%, ploughing - 40% of all operations. Identified effectiveness of soil biotreatment, wheat and rapeseed rotation for reduction of global warming potential. Discovered reduction interdependencies of main life cycle assessement impact categories. The largest CO2 eq reducing established from primary - disc harrowing 12-15 cm and secondary - ploughing 23-25 cm soil tillage. It was fixed till approximately 15% in mixed bacterial and non-bacterial bio-solution after first soil biotreatment. Till approximately 8% CO2 eq reduction was in mixed bio-solutions after second biotreatment. The percentage highest soil biotreatment effectiveness till approximately 30% assessed after third biotreatment compared to usual technology. Soil biotreatment effectiveness in reducing green house gases (GHG) proved first year in 86%, second year in 43%, and third year in 71% of all used bio-solutions.}, }
@article {pmid30946811, year = {2019}, author = {Cissé, G}, title = {Food-borne and water-borne diseases under climate change in low- and middle-income countries: further efforts needed for reducing environmental health exposure risks.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2019.03.012}, pmid = {30946811}, issn = {1873-6254}, abstract = {This paper provides a view of the major facts and figures related to infectious diseases with a focus on food-borne and water-borne diseases and their link with environmental factors and climate change. The global burden of food-borne diseases for 31 selected hazards was estimated by the World Health Organization at 33 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2010 with 40% of this burden concentrated among children under 5 years of age. The highest burden per population of food-borne diseases is found in Africa, followed by Southeast Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean sub-regions. Unsafe water used for the cleaning and processing of food is a key risk factors contributing to food-borne diseases. The role of quality and quantity of water to the general burden of infectious diseases deserves attention, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, as its effects go beyond the food chain. Water-related infectious diseases are a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, and climate change effects will exacerbate the challenges for the public health sector for both food-borne and water-borne diseases. Selected case studies from Africa and Asia show that (i) climate change extreme events, such as floods, may exacerbate the risks for infectious diseases spreading through water systems, and (ii) improvements related to drinking water, sanitation and hygiene could result in a significant reduction of intestinal parasitic infections among school-aged children. There is a need to better anticipate the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases and fostering multi-stakeholder engagement and multi-sectoral collaborations for integrated interventions at schools, community and household levels. The paper calls for giving priority to improving the environmental conditions affecting food-borne and water-borne infectious diseases under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30944502, year = {2019}, author = {Clay, N and King, B}, title = {Smallholders' uneven capacities to adapt to climate change amid Africa's 'green revolution': Case study of Rwanda's crop intensification program.}, journal = {World development}, volume = {116}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.11.022}, pmid = {30944502}, issn = {0305-750X}, abstract = {Development programs and policies can influence smallholder producers' abilities to adapt to climate change. However, gaps remain in understanding how households' adaptive capacities can become uneven. This paper investigates how development transitions-such as the recent adoption of 'green revolution' agricultural policies throughout sub-Saharan Africa-intersect with cross-scale social-environmental processes to unevenly shape smallholders' adaptive capacities and adaptation pathways. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative material from a multi-season study in Rwanda, we investigate smallholder adaptation processes amid a suite of rural development interventions. Our study finds that adaptive capacities arise differentially across livelihood groups in the context of evolving environmental, social, and political economic processes. We show how social institutions play key roles in shaping differential adaptation pathways by enabling and/or constraining opportunities for smallholders to adapt livelihood and land use strategies. Specifically, Rwanda's Crop Intensification Program enables some wealthier households to adapt livelihoods by generating income through commercial agriculture. At the same time, deactivation of local risk management institutions has diminished climate risk management options for most households. To build and employ alternate livelihood practices such as commercial agriculture and planting woodlots for charcoal production, smallholders must negotiate new institutions, a prerequisite for which is access to capitals (land, labor, and nonfarm income). Those without entitlements to these are pulled deeper into poverty with each successive climatic shock. This illustrates that adaptive capacity is not a static, quantifiable entity that exists in households. We argue that reconceptualizing adaptive capacity as a dynamic, social-environmental process that emerges in places can help clarify complex linkages among development policies, livelihoods, and adaptation pathways. To ensure more equitable and climate-resilient agricultural development, we stress the need to reformulate policies with careful attention to how power structures and entrenched social inequalities can lead to smallholders' uneven capacities to adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30944475, year = {2019}, author = {Hughes, TP and Kerry, JT and Baird, AH and Connolly, SR and Chase, TJ and Dietzel, A and Hill, T and Hoey, AS and Hoogenboom, MO and Jacobson, M and Kerswell, A and Madin, JS and Mieog, A and Paley, AS and Pratchett, MS and Torda, G and Woods, RM}, title = {Global warming impairs stock-recruitment dynamics of corals.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1081-y}, pmid = {30944475}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Changes in disturbance regimes due to climate change are increasingly challenging the capacity of ecosystems to absorb recurrent shocks and reassemble afterwards, escalating the risk of widespread ecological collapse of current ecosystems and the emergence of novel assemblages1-3. In marine systems, the production of larvae and recruitment of functionally important species are fundamental processes for rebuilding depleted adult populations, maintaining resilience and avoiding regime shifts in the face of rising environmental pressures4,5. Here we document a regional-scale shift in stock-recruitment relationships of corals along the Great Barrier Reef-the world's largest coral reef system-following unprecedented back-to-back mass bleaching events caused by global warming. As a consequence of mass mortality of adult brood stock in 2016 and 2017 owing to heat stress6, the amount of larval recruitment declined in 2018 by 89% compared to historical levels. For the first time, brooding pocilloporids replaced spawning acroporids as the dominant taxon in the depleted recruitment pool. The collapse in stock-recruitment relationships indicates that the low resistance of adult brood stocks to repeated episodes of coral bleaching is inexorably tied to an impaired capacity for recovery, which highlights the multifaceted processes that underlie the global decline of coral reefs. The extent to which the Great Barrier Reef will be able to recover from the collapse in stock-recruitment relationships remains uncertain, given the projected increased frequency of extreme climate events over the next two decades7.}, }
@article {pmid30940812, year = {2019}, author = {Kou-Giesbrecht, S and Menge, D}, title = {Nitrogen-fixing trees could exacerbate climate change under elevated nitrogen deposition.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1493}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09424-2}, pmid = {30940812}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Biological nitrogen fixation can fuel CO2 sequestration by forests but can also stimulate soil emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas. Here we use a theoretical model to suggest that symbiotic nitrogen-fixing trees could either mitigate (CO2 sequestration outweighs soil N2O emissions) or exacerbate (vice versa) climate change relative to non-fixing trees, depending on their nitrogen fixation strategy (the degree to which they regulate nitrogen fixation to balance nitrogen supply and demand) and on nitrogen deposition. The model posits that nitrogen-fixing trees could exacerbate climate change globally relative to non-fixing trees by the radiative equivalent of 0.77 Pg C yr-1 under nitrogen deposition rates projected for 2030. This value is highly uncertain, but its magnitude suggests that this subject requires further study and that improving the representation of biological nitrogen fixation in climate models could substantially decrease estimates of the extent to which forests will mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30936173, year = {2019}, author = {Vogel, L}, title = {Why aren't more doctors talking about climate change?.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {191}, number = {13}, pages = {E375-E376}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-5731}, pmid = {30936173}, issn = {1488-2329}, }
@article {pmid30934119, year = {2019}, author = {Salick, J and Fang, Z and Hart, R}, title = {Rapid changes in eastern Himalayan alpine flora with climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.1263}, pmid = {30934119}, issn = {1537-2197}, support = {IGERT DGE#0549369//National Geographic Society/ ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: With biodiversity and rates of climate change among the highest, the eastern Himalaya are critical for understanding the interaction of these two variables. However, there is a dearth of longitudinal data sets that address the effects of climate change on the exceptional alpine biodiversity of the Himalaya.<br><br>METHODS: We established permanent alpine vegetation monitoring plots in three mountain chains of the Hengduan Mountains, the easternmost Himalaya, which have warmed 0.03-0.05°C yr-1 since 1985. Recently, we resampled plots (176 1-m2 quadrat plots and 88 sections of 11 summits in three Hengduan mountain chains) to measure changes in vegetation after 7 years.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Over 7 years, Tibetan alpine vegetation increased in number of species (+8 species/summit; +2.3 species/m2), in frequency (+47.8 plants/m2), and in diversity (+1.6 effective species/m2). Stepwise regressions indicated that warmer temperatures, southerly aspects, and higher elevations were associated with greater increases in these vegetation metrics. Unexpectedly, Himalayan endemic species increased (+1.4 species/m2 ; +8.5 plants/m2), especially on higher-elevation summits. In contrast, the increase in relative abundance of non-alpine species was greater at lower-elevation summits. Plants used by local Tibetans also increased (+1.3 species/m2 ; +32 plants/m2).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: As in other alpine areas, biodiversity is increasing with climate change in the Himalaya. Unlike other areas, endemic species are proliferating at the highest summits and are indicators of change.}, }
@article {pmid30931415, year = {2019}, author = {He, X and Burgess, KS and Gao, LM and Li, DZ}, title = {Distributional responses to climate change for alpine species of Cyananthus and Primula endemic to the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains.}, journal = {Plant diversity}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {26-32}, doi = {10.1016/j.pld.2019.01.004}, pmid = {30931415}, issn = {2468-2659}, abstract = {Global warming increases the vulnerability of plants, especially alpine herbaceous species, to local extinction. In this study, we collected species distribution information from herbarium specimens for ten selected Cyananthus and Primula alpine species endemic to the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains (HHM). Combined with climate data from WorldClim, we used Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt) to project distributional changes from the current time period to 2070. Our predictions indicate that, under a wide range of climate change scenarios, the distributions of all species will shift upward in elevation and northward in latitude; furthermore, under these scenarios, species will expand the size of their range. For the majority of the species in this study, habitats are available to mitigate upward and northward shifts that are projected to be induced by changing climate. If current climate projections, however, increase in magnitude or continue to increase past our projection dates, suitable habitat for future occupation by alpine species will be limited as we predict range contraction or less range expansion for some of the species under more intensified climate scenarios. Our study not only underscores the value of herbarium source information for future climate model projections but also suggests that future studies on the effects of climate change on alpine species should include additional biotic and abiotic factors to provide greater resolution of the local dynamics associated with species persistence under a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid30928797, year = {2019}, author = {Wen, Y and Liu, X and Bai, Y and Sun, Y and Yang, J and Lin, K and Pei, F and Yan, Y}, title = {Determining the impacts of climate change and urban expansion on terrestrial net primary production in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {240}, number = {}, pages = {75-83}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.071}, pmid = {30928797}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change and urbanization strongly affect the variations of terrestrial net primary production (NPP), but the relative contributions of these two factors to NPP changes have not been determined yet (especially on a macroscale). In this study, spatial-temporal variations of NPP in China from 2000 to 2010 were estimated using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model, and the effects induced by urbanization and climate change were quantified. The obtained results showed that during the study period, the NPP in China exhibited an annual increase of 0.03 Pg C accompanied by large spatial heterogeneities. During the whole study period, the urban area in China increased by 16.44 × 103 km2, and the corresponding NPP losses amounted to 11.60 × 10-3 Pg C. Urban expansion significantly offset the climate change-induced NPP increases and worsened NPP decreases (the offsetting ratio calculated for China was 5.42%, and its exact magnitudes varied by province). The largest NPP variations were observed over the regions with rapid urban expansion, whose contribution ratio was 32.20% for China and exceeded 30% for most provinces. Climate change contributed considerably to the NPP variations in both the newly urbanized (30.45%) and purely vegetated (46.92%) areas, but its contribution ratios were slightly lower than those of residual factors. Moreover, climate change strongly affected the NPP levels over the arid and semi-arid regions as well as over the Tibet Plateau; however, residual factors dominated the NPP variations over the central and southeast China. Our study highlights a significant role of urbanization in driving terrestrial NPP variations on a macroscale and provides a new perspective on disentangling the impacts of external factors on NPP values.}, }
@article {pmid30925436, year = {2019}, author = {Churakova Sidorova, OV and Lehmann, MM and Siegwolf, RTW and Saurer, M and Fonti, MV and Schmid, L and Timofeeva, G and Rinne-Garmston, KT and Bigler, C}, title = {Compound-specific carbon isotope patterns in needles of conifer tree species from the Swiss National Park under recent climate change.}, journal = {Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB}, volume = {139}, number = {}, pages = {264-272}, doi = {10.1016/j.plaphy.2019.03.016}, pmid = {30925436}, issn = {1873-2690}, abstract = {Elevated CO2 along with rising temperature and water deficits can lead to changes in tree physiology and leaf biochemistry. These changes can increase heat- and drought-induced tree mortality. We aim to reveal the impacts of climatic drivers on individual compounds at the leaf level among European larch (Larix decidua) and mountain pine (Pinus mugo) trees, which are widely distributed at high elevations. We investigated seasonal carbon isotope composition (δ13C) and concentration patterns of carbohydrates and organic acids in needles of these two different species from a case study in the Swiss National Park (SNP). We found that average and minimum air temperatures were the main climatic drivers of seasonal variation of δ13C in sucrose and glucose as well as in concentrations of carbohydrates and citric acid/citrate in needles of both tree species. The impact of seasonal climatic drivers on larch and mountain pine trees at the needle level is in line with our earlier study in this region for long-term changes at the tree-ring level. We conclude that the species-specific changes in δ13C and concentrations of carbohydrates and organic acids are sensitive indicators of changes in the metabolic pathways occurring as a result of climatic changes.}, }
@article {pmid30923847, year = {2019}, author = {Berger, N and Lindemann, AK and Böl, GF}, title = {[Public perception of climate change and implications for risk communication].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02930-0}, pmid = {30923847}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {Man-made climate change is associated with several weather and environmental changes that can influence the extent of certain health risks. The article gives an overview of the challenges of communicating these health risks. Theoretical considerations are linked with the results of a representative population survey, in which 1018 participants aged 14 years and above were polled about their perception of climate change and its associated health risks.According to the survey results, the majority of the population is convinced that climate change is actually taking place. However, the data suggest that respondents regard the topic with psychological distance. Health risks associated with climate change also play a relatively minor role in the participants' perception.The theoretical considerations in connection with the empirical results show that targeted communication measures are needed to enhance awareness of the health risks associated with climate change among the general public. This requires not only a comprehensive provision of information, but also instructions and action plans for the practical implementation of that knowledge. Communication measures should take into account factors that can influence risk perception and the willingness to act. They should also be embedded in a strategic communication concept that allows different target groups to be addressed.}, }
@article {pmid30923845, year = {2019}, author = {Rickerts, V}, title = {[Climate change and systemic fungal infections].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02931-z}, pmid = {30923845}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change may cause profound and complex changes in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Obligate pathogenic fungi causing endemic mycoses and the agents of cryptococcosis are environmental pathogens adapted to environmental niches. They may be exposed to changing climatic conditions, which may change the epidemiology of human infections.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To review documented changes in the epidemiology of endemic fungal infections and cryptococcosis. To review evidence that changing climate is a potential mechanism for changes in the epidemiology of these infections.<br><br>METHODS: A selective literature review focusing on endemic mycoses and cryptococcosis.<br><br>RESULTS: Changes in endemic regions of infections caused by C. gattii and selected endemic mycoses have been well documented. Significant increases in the incidence of infections have been demonstrated for some areas. Climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events), changes in land use, distribution of potential host animals, and global trade routes are discussed as contributory factors.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Improved surveillance of fungal infections of humans and animals including molecular typing of clinical and environmental isolates is necessary to understand the epidemiology of these infections. The characterization of environmental niches, mechanisms of distribution of fungi, and fungal adaptation mechanisms are needed to guide prevention strategies.}, }
@article {pmid30921514, year = {2019}, author = {Verheyen, J and Delnat, V and Stoks, R}, title = {Increased Daily Temperature Fluctuations Overrule the Ability of Gradual Thermal Evolution to Offset the Increased Pesticide Toxicity under Global Warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.8b07166}, pmid = {30921514}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {The widespread evidence that global warming can increase species sensitivities to chemical toxicants, and vice versa, and the recent insight that thermal evolution may mitigate these effects is crucial to predict the future impact of toxicants in a warming world. Nevertheless, a major component of global warming, the predicted increase in daily temperature fluctuations (DTFs), has been ignored at the interface of evolutionary ecotoxicology and global change biology. We studied whether 4 °C warming and a 5 °C DTF increase (to 10 °C DTF) magnified the negative impact of the insecticide chlorpyrifos (CPF) in larvae of low- and high-latitude populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. While 4 °C warming only increased CPF-induced mortality in high-latitude larvae, the high (10 °C) DTF increased CPF-induced larval mortality at both latitudes. CPF reduced the heat tolerance; however, this was buffered by latitude-specific thermal adaptation to both mean temperature and DTF. Integrating our results in a space-for-time substitution indicated that gradual thermal evolution in high-latitude larvae may offset the negative effects of CPF on heat tolerance under warming, unless the expected DTF increase is taken into account. Our results highlight the crucial importance of jointly integrating DTFs and thermal evolution to improve risk assessment of toxicants under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid30921321, year = {2019}, author = {Ryan, SJ and Carlson, CJ and Mordecai, EA and Johnson, LR}, title = {Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {e0007213}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0007213}, pmid = {30921321}, issn = {1935-2735}, abstract = {Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30919662, year = {2019}, author = {Langkulsen, U and Promsakha Na Sakolnakhon, K and James, N}, title = {Climate change and dengue risk in central region of Thailand.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2019.1599100}, pmid = {30919662}, issn = {1369-1619}, abstract = {Dengue poses a huge public health threat. It places physical and financial burden on individuals affected, family, and national health systems. This descriptive study aimed for two specific objectives; to investigate the weather effects on dengue incidence and to estimate level of risk in the central region of Thailand. It utilized a 10-year population level dengue morbidity data and meteorological data from 2007 to 2016. Kriging method was used to interpolate a weighted risk factor upon a 5-point risk estimate was developed for estimating area risk on a 5-point scale. The findings showed that 2 out of 16 provinces (12.5%) are strong to very strong risk areas for dengue, including Bangkok and Nonthaburi provinces. The study revealed that the impact of La Niña and El Niño on increased dengue incidence and risk level in Bangkok. We recommend further studies to establish intersections of dengue disease and social determinants of health.}, }
@article {pmid30917146, year = {2019}, author = {Parker, L and Bourgoin, C and Martinez-Valle, A and Läderach, P}, title = {Vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change: The development of a pan-tropical Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment to inform sub-national decision making.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {e0213641}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0213641}, pmid = {30917146}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {As climate change continues to exert increasing pressure upon the livelihoods and agricultural sector of many developing and developed nations, a need exists to understand and prioritise at the sub national scale which areas and communities are most vulnerable. The purpose of this study is to develop a robust, rigorous and replicable methodology that is flexible to data limitations and spatially prioritizes the vulnerability of agriculture and rural livelihoods to climate change. We have applied the methodology in Vietnam, Uganda and Nicaragua, three contrasting developing countries that are particularly threatened by climate change. We conceptualize vulnerability to climate change following the widely adopted combination of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity. We used Ecocrop and Maxent ecological models under a high emission climate scenario to assess the sensitivity of the main food security and cash crops to climate change. Using a participatory approach, we identified exposure to natural hazards and the main indicators of adaptive capacity, which were modelled and analysed using geographic information systems. We finally combined the components of vulnerability using equal-weighting to produce a crop specific vulnerability index and a final accumulative score. We have mapped the hotspots of climate change vulnerability and identified the underlying driving indicators. For example, in Vietnam we found the Mekong delta to be one of the vulnerable regions due to a decline in the climatic suitability of rice and maize, combined with high exposure to flooding, sea level rise and drought. However, the region is marked by a relatively high adaptive capacity due to developed infrastructure and comparatively high levels of education. The approach and information derived from the study informs public climate change policies and actions, as vulnerability assessments are the bases of any National Adaptation Plans (NAP), National Determined Contributions (NDC) and for accessing climate finance.}, }
@article {pmid30915801, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, YB and Liu, YL and Qin, H and Meng, QX}, title = {[Prediction on spatial migration of suitable distribution of Elaeagnus mollis under climate change conditions in Shanxi Province, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {496-502}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201902.040}, pmid = {30915801}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on biodiversity and its adaptation will directly affect the efficiency of biodiversity conservation. Predicting spatial variation of suitable habitats of threatened species under future climate change has important theoretical and practical significance for biodiversity conservation. In this study, we predicted the suitable distribution of Elaeagnus mollis, an endemic endangered plant in China, under climate change at regional scales. Then, we simulated the spatial variation and migration tend of suitable distribution under different climate change scenarios by spatial analysis. The results from Maxent model showed that the two suitable distribution areas of E. mollis presented different migration trends under the future climate change scenarios: the suitable areas of Lyuliang Mountain would fluctuate slightly in latitudinal direction, while that in Zhongtiao Mountain would migrate to high elevation. Analysis of the spatial pattern change of the suitable areas indicated that the areas with obvious change occurred at the boundary of the suitable areas of E. mollis, including new suitable area and lost suitable area. The new suitable areas were scattered in the marginal of the original, with the increase rate of 9.1% to 20.9%, and the lost suitable areas were concentrated in the northern Lyuliang Mountain suitable areas and the southeast Zhongtiao Mountain suitable areas, with the loss rate of 16.4% to 31.1%. These regions were more sensitive to climate change. Using the classification statistical tool of Zonal, we found that the central points of the Lyuliang Mountain suitable areas showed southward migration trend under the future climate change, with the maximum migration distance of 7.451 km, while the center point of the Zhongtiao Mountain suitable areas showed migration trend to the northwest, with the maximum migration distance of 8.284 km. Our results indicated that the response of E. mollis distribution in Shanxi to climate change was intense.}, }
@article {pmid30914147, year = {2019}, author = {Chaverra, A and Wieters, E and Foggo, A and Knights, AM}, title = {Removal of intertidal grazers by human harvesting leads to alteration of species interactions, community structure and resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.03.003}, pmid = {30914147}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Extreme fluctuations in abiotic conditions can induce a biological stress response (e.g. bleaching) detrimental to an organism's health. In some instances, organisms can recover if conditions are alleviated, such as through co-occurrence with other species that confer protection. Biodiverse, multitrophic communities are increasingly recognised as important promoters of species persistence and resilience under environmental change. On intertidal shores, the role of grazers as top-down determinants of algal community structure is well recognised. Similarly, the harvesting of grazers for human consumption is increasingly prevalent with potential to greatly alter the community dynamics. Here, we assess how differences in harvesting pressure of grazers under three management regimes (no-take; managed access; open-access) alters the trophic interactions between grazers, and algal communities. Grazer density and body size frequencies were different among regimes leading to changes in the photosynthetic performance and recovery of crustose coralline algae (CCA) post-bleaching, as well as their presence altering the strength of interactions between species. The exclusion of grazers from patches using cages led to different emergent communities and reduced negative correlations between taxa. The absence of larger grazers (>9 cm) at the managed access site led to macroalgal overgrowth of bleached CCA negatively affecting its recovery, whereas no-take or open-access led to a moderated algal growth and a shift from competitive to facilitative interactions between algal species. Given that CCA play an important role in the population growth and development of other species, the choice of management measure should be carefully considered before implementation, depending on objectives.}, }
@article {pmid30912234, year = {2019}, author = {Mariani, M and Fletcher, MS and Haberle, S and Chin, H and Zawadzki, A and Jacobsen, G}, title = {Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14609}, pmid = {30912234}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DI110100019//Australian Research Council/ ; IN140100050//Australian Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and the functioning of ecosystems. For species that are slow growing and poorly dispersed, climate change can force a lag between the distributions of species and the geographic distributions of their climatic envelopes, exposing species to the risk of extinction. Climate also governs the resilience of species and ecosystems to disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use species distribution modelling and palaeoecology to assess and test the impact of vegetation-climate disequilibrium on the resilience of an endangered fire-sensitive rainforest community to fires. First, we modelled the probability of occurrence of Athrotaxis spp. and Nothofagus gunnii rainforest in Tasmania (hereon &quot;montane rainforest&quot;) as a function of climate. We then analysed three pollen and charcoal records spanning the last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high (n = 1) and low (n = 2) probability of occurrence areas. Our study indicates that climatic change between 3,000 and 4,000 cal year bp induced a disequilibrium between montane rainforests and climate that drove a loss of resilience of these communities. Current and future climate change are likely to shift the geographic distribution of the climatic envelopes of this plant community further, suggesting that current high-resilience locations will face a reduction in resilience. Coupled with the forecast of increasing fire activity in southern temperate regions, this heralds a significant threat to this and other slow growing, poorly dispersed and fire sensitive forest systems that are common in the southern mid to high latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid30911069, year = {2019}, author = {Jara, M and García-Roa, R and Escobar, LE and Torres-Carvajal, O and Pincheira-Donoso, D}, title = {Alternative reproductive adaptations predict asymmetric responses to climate change in lizards.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {5093}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-41670-8}, pmid = {30911069}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change ranks among the major global-scale threats to modern biodiversity. Extinction risks are known to increase via the interactions between rapid climatic alterations and environmentally-sensitive species traits that fail to adapt to those changes. Accumulating evidence reveals the influence of ecophysiological, ecological and phenological factors as drivers underlying demographic collapses that lead to population extinctions. However, the extent to which life-history traits influence population responses to climate change remains largely unexplored. The emerging 'cul-de-sac hypothesis' predicts that reptilian viviparity ('live-bearing' reproduction), a 'key innovation' facilitating historical invasions of cold climates, increases extinction risks under progressively warming climates compared to oviparous reproduction - as warming advances polewards/mountainwards, historically cold-climates shrink, leading viviparous species to face demographic collapses. We present the first large-scale test of this prediction based on multiple lizard radiations and on future projections of climate-based ecological niche models. Viviparous species were found to experience stronger elevational range shifts (and potentially increased extinctions) in coming decades, compared to oviparous lizards. Therefore, our analyses support the hypothesis's fundamental prediction that elevational shifts are more severe in viviparous species, and highlight the role that life-history adaptations play in the responses of biodiversity to ongoing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30910789, year = {2019}, author = {Kemple, T}, title = {Toolkit for GPs to take action on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {364}, number = {}, pages = {l1342}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l1342}, pmid = {30910789}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid30909476, year = {2019}, author = {Mukamuhirwa, A and Persson Hovmalm, H and Bolinsson, H and Ortiz, R and Nyamangyoku, O and Johansson, E}, title = {Concurrent Drought and Temperature Stress in Rice-A Possible Result of the Predicted Climate Change: Effects on Yield Attributes, Eating Characteristics, and Health Promoting Compounds.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16061043}, pmid = {30909476}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {5410004501//Styrelsen för Internationellt Utvecklingssamarbete/ ; }, abstract = {Despite the likely increasing co-occurrence of drought and heat stress, not least in equatorial regions, due to climate change, little is known about the combinational effect of these stresses on rice productivity and quality. This study evaluated the impact of simultaneous drought and temperature stress on growth, grain yield, and quality characteristics of seven rice cultivars from Rwanda, grown in climate chambers. Two temperature ranges-23/26 °C night/day and 27/30 °C night/day-together with single or repeated drought treatments, were applied during various plant developmental stages. Plant development and yield were highly influenced by drought, while genotype impacted the quality characteristics. The combination of a high temperature with drought at the seedling and tillering stages resulted in zero panicles for all evaluated cultivars. The cultivar 'Intsindagirabigega' was most tolerant to drought, while 'Zong geng' was the most sensitive. A &quot;stress memory&quot; was recorded for 'Mpembuke' and 'Ndamirabahinzi', and these cultivars also had a high content of bioactive compounds, while 'Jyambere' showed a high total protein content. Thus, climate change may severely impact rice production. The exploitation of genetic diversity to breed novel rice cultivars that combine drought and heat stress tolerance with high nutritional values is a must to maintain food security.}, }
@article {pmid30909203, year = {2019}, author = {Ardalan, A and Belay, GD and Assen, M and Attar, MJH and Khoei, EM and Ostadtaghizadeh, A}, title = {Impact of climate change on community health and resilience in Ethiopia: A review article.}, journal = {Human antibodies}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3233/HAB-190364}, pmid = {30909203}, issn = {1875-869X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Drought is a serious issue which might be caused by climate change that could create famine and health problems. Drought reduces air quality, increases fungal infestation, reduces people hand washing, affects mental health, leads to malnutrition by decreasing agricultural production, and increases diseases transmitted by insects. This study aimed to determine and describe community health status through building drought resilience in Ethiopia.<br><br>METHODS: This review was conducted based on the available peer-reviewed articles that were published from January 2004 to December 2018 Online databases from PubMed, MEDLINE, Scopus, EMBASE and Google Scholar were searched for studies related to the building drought and community health resilience at different regions of Ethiopia that were published in English language. The search was made by using &quot;Emergency disaster&quot;, &quot;prevention&quot;, &quot;preparedness&quot;, &quot;response&quot;, &quot;recovery&quot;, &quot;drought&quot;, &quot;food insecurity&quot;, &quot;coping strategies&quot; and &quot;drought health policy&quot; as keywords.<br><br>RESULTS: Most of the reviewed articles deal with the impact of climate change on the human health in relation to food security. The associated factors of the impact of drought on food security is basically due to lack of irrigation and farmland, the scarcity of water due to the direct effect of drought, flood, severe soil erosion, livestock dispossession, family size of the household and literacy of the households. Various coping strategies were employed by the households to alleviate the high and continued food insecurity problem such as reducing the number and amount of meal, scrounging cash and grain, searching for off-farm and non-farm jobs, getting food aid, vending of livestock, and partake in food for work programs.}, }
@article {pmid30909160, year = {2019}, author = {Bhargava, A}, title = {Climate change, demographic pressures and global sustainability.}, journal = {Economics and human biology}, volume = {33}, number = {}, pages = {149-154}, doi = {10.1016/j.ehb.2019.02.007}, pmid = {30909160}, issn = {1873-6130}, abstract = {This article emphasizes the need for broader approaches for formulating policies for mitigating the effects of climate change especially in the contexts of agricultural decisions, and population health and migration. Constraints imposed by rapid population growth in developing countries for achievement of Sustainable Development Goals are discussed and evidence is presented on &quot;unwanted&quot; fertility from India. Second, comparisons are made for India during 2002-2016 for average well depths in 495 districts and terrestrial water storage anomalies assessed via GRACE satellites for 274 1° × 1° grids using estimated parameters from dynamic random effects models. Lastly, migration patterns especially of the highly educated from 39 sending countries to OECD countries during 2000-2010 are analyzed using dynamic random effects models and total fertility rates were significantly associated with higher migration rates for the highly educated. Implications of the empirical evidence for enhancing global sustainability are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid30909039, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, M and Ma, J and Kang, L and Wei, Y and He, Q and Hu, X and Li, H}, title = {Strong turbulence benefits toxic and colonial cyanobacteria in water: A potential way of climate change impact on the expansion of Harmful Algal Blooms.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {670}, number = {}, pages = {613-622}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.253}, pmid = {30909039}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Extreme natural events such as typhoons can amplify the effect of hydrodynamics on the lake ecosystems. Here we presented data on the effect of typhoons on algal cell size based on field observation. Then turbulence simulation systems were used to decipher the response of natural phytoplankton communities to a range of turbulence regimes (linked to typhoon-induced turbulence intensity) under laboratory conditions. Turbulence intensities of 6.17 × 10-3, 1.10 × 10-2 and 1.80 × 10-2 m2/s3 benefited algal growth and triggered abrupt switches from unicellular Chlorella dominated to colonial Microcystis dominance, and the abundance of colonial algae depended on the turbulence intensity. Under the influence of elevated turbulence, Microcystis dominated biomass increased by 2.60-6.58 times compared with that of Chlorella. At a given phytoplankton density and community composition, we observed a significant increase in extracellular microcystins (MCs) and a 47.5-fold increase in intracellular MCs with intensified turbulent mixing, suggesting that the damage of algal cells concomitantly the stimulation of toxin-producing Microcystis. Our results confirmed that the formation of large colonial algal cells, enhancement of the succession of algal species, and most importantly, the induction of toxin-producing Microcystis, were the active adaption strategy when phytoplankton were impacted by strong turbulence. The result implies that the ongoing climates changes and typhoon events are likely to contribute to undesirable outcomes concerning phytoplankton populations.}, }
@article {pmid30904658, year = {2019}, author = {Bai, X and Zhang, X and Li, J and Duan, X and Jin, Y and Chen, Z}, title = {Altitudinal disparity in growth of Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) in response to recent climate change in northeast China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {670}, number = {}, pages = {466-477}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.232}, pmid = {30904658}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Forests are sensitive to climate change at high altitude and high latitude. Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) has experienced an unprecedented forest retreat northward during the last century. Whether the response of growth to climate has dissimilar patterns at different altitudes, and what the &quot;altitudinal trends&quot; of forest development will be in the future, remains unclear. We dendroclimatically investigated the impacts of climate change on the growth of larch forests along an altitudinal gradient. In total, 721 trees from 25 forest stands, representing an altitudinal range from 400 to 950 m a.s.l. in the Great Xing'an Mountains, northeast China, were sampled and used to develop tree-ring width chronologies. The results suggest that warming caused a decline in larch growth at low altitude, while tree growth increased at high altitude. The growth-climate relationships indicate that October-February temperatures were positively correlated with larch growth at low- and high-altitude sites, but negatively correlated at medium-altitude sites (ca. 600-700 m a.s.l.). April-May (early spring) temperatures and October-January precipitation had positive effects on growth in general (ca. 75% of all sites). The effects of summer temperature/precipitation on larch growth at high-altitude sites were opposite to that at low-altitude sites. This change of response from significantly positive/negative correlation to significantly negative/positive correlation occurred gradually along the altitudinal gradient. The relationships varied significantly with altitude both in the case of temperature (R2 = 0.425, P < 0.001) and precipitation (R2 = 0.613, P < 0.001). The shift in response of larch forest to changes in summer temperature and precipitation occurred in the areas with a mean annual temperature of ca. -4 °C and ca. -5 °C, respectively; larch growth at temperatures lower or higher than these thresholds was limited by temperature and precipitation, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid30904110, year = {2019}, author = {Gasparrini, A and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM}, title = {Temperature-related mortality and climate change in Australia - Authors' reply.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {e122-e123}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30043-9}, pmid = {30904110}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid30904109, year = {2019}, author = {Longden, T}, title = {Temperature-related mortality and climate change in Australia.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {e121}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30016-6}, pmid = {30904109}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid30904092, year = {2019}, author = {Muthamilarasan, M and Singh, NK and Prasad, M}, title = {Multi-omics approaches for strategic improvement of stress tolerance in underutilized crop species: A climate change perspective.}, journal = {Advances in genetics}, volume = {103}, number = {}, pages = {1-38}, doi = {10.1016/bs.adgen.2019.01.001}, pmid = {30904092}, issn = {0065-2660}, abstract = {For several decades, researchers are working toward improving the &quot;major&quot; crops for better adaptability and tolerance to environmental stresses. However, little or no research attention is given toward neglected and underutilized crop species (NUCS) which hold the potential to ensure food and nutritional security among the ever-growing global population. NUCS are predominantly climate resilient, but their yield and quality are compromised due to selective breeding. In this context, the importance of omics technologies namely genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, phenomics and ionomics in delineating the complex molecular machinery governing growth, development and stress responses of NUCS is underlined. However, gaining insights through individual omics approaches will not be sufficient to address the research questions, whereas integrating these technologies could be an effective strategy to decipher the gene function, genome structures, biological pathways, metabolic and regulatory networks underlying complex traits. Given this, the chapter enlists the importance of NUCS in food and nutritional security and provides an overview of deploying omics approaches to study the NUCS. Also, the chapter enumerates the status of crop improvement programs in NUCS and suggests implementing &quot;integrating omics&quot; for gaining a better understanding of crops' response to abiotic and biotic stresses.}, }
@article {pmid30903471, year = {2019}, author = {Attiaoui, I and Boufateh, T}, title = {Impacts of climate change on cereal farming in Tunisia: a panel ARDL-PMG approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-04867-y}, pmid = {30903471}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {We used an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling to investigate the short- and long-term effects of climate change on Tunisian cereal farming. The Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation as well as Granger causality tests conducted on a regional panel of the country, covering a time horizon from 1975 to 2014, showed that climate change issues still persist in Tunisia, affecting negatively and increasingly the cereal output. This study proves that negative effects of climate are rather felt when there is a shortage of rainfall, whereas the current temperature levels are still in favor of cereal crop. The findings indicate that cereal farming requires a continuous technology pack deployment and a favorable climate. However, an unanticipated long-run relationship has been observed between cereal production and labor. As a result of this research, recommendations were built around two major strategies, namely yield improvement and farmers' income stabilization to mitigate the unpredictable effects of climate change and hazardous events. The implementation of a production and regional specialization map and the adoption of an anti-drought insurance system in addition to compensation payment would be a suitable adaptation policy to climate change effects and for the sustainability of Tunisian agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid30902110, year = {2019}, author = {Crkvencic, N and Šlapeta, J}, title = {Climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) distribution in Australia.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {137}, doi = {10.1186/s13071-019-3399-6}, pmid = {30902110}, issn = {1756-3305}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Bioclimatic variables play an integral part in the life-cycle of Ctenocephalides felis, the most common flea found on companion animals. It is essential that we understand the effects of climate on C. felis distribution as fleas are a major veterinary and public health concern. This study investigated the current distribution of C. felis in Australia and future projections based on climate modelling.<br><br>RESULTS: Typing of C. felis was undertaken using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) region and current distribution of haplotypes was mapped by Maximum Entropy (Maxent) niche modelling. All C. felis haplotypes have been predicted to persist in environments along the eastern and southern coastlines of Australia and distinct ecological niches were observed for two C. felis haplogroups. Clade 'Cairns' haplogroup thrives under the northern coastal tropical conditions whilst Clade 'Sydney' haplogroup persists in temperate climates along the eastern and southern coasts. The model was then used to predict areas that are projected to have suitable climatic conditions for these haplogroups in 2050 and 2070 under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. Under all IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, the geographical range of all haplotypes was reduced by 5.59-42.21% in 2050 and 27.08-58.82% by 2070. The ranges of all clades were predicted to shift south along the eastern coastline.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: As future temperatures exceed critical threshold temperatures for C. felis development in the northern tropical areas, Clade 'Cairns' haplogroup is predicted to shift south along the coastline and possibly outcompete the temperate haplogroup in these areas. If C. felis haplogroups possess distinct climatic niches it suggests a potential for these to be biologically distinct and have differing developmental rates and vector capabilities.}, }
@article {pmid30901779, year = {2019}, author = {Tal, A}, title = {The implications of climate change driven depletion of Lake Kinneret water levels: the compelling case for climate change-triggered precipitation impact on Lake Kinneret's low water levels.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {1045-1051}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.106}, pmid = {30901779}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The dramatic drop in water levels in the Kinneret Lake (Sea of Galilee) during the past years is evaluated. Recently published measurements of temperature, precipitation and other hydrological data support the position that climate change is driving the contraction of this iconic water resource. The article presents a range of evidence confirming long-term shifts in the hydrological dynamics of the watershed and details the associated ecological implications. In response to these trends, Israel's government has decided to build a desalination plant along the Northern Mediterranean shoreline that will provide water to replenish the depleted water levels in lake. Given the likelihood of continued global warming expediting increased evaporation and reduced precipitation, such climate adaptation policies constitute prudent public policy.}, }
@article {pmid30901496, year = {2019}, author = {Zlonis, KJ and Etterson, JR}, title = {Constituents of a mixed-ploidy population of Solidago altissima differ in plasticity and predicted response to selection under simulated climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {106}, number = {3}, pages = {453-468}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.1257}, pmid = {30901496}, issn = {1537-2197}, support = {DEB-0641285//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Polyploids possess unique attributes that influence their environmental tolerance and geographic distribution. It is often unknown, however, whether cytotypes within mixed-ploidy populations are also uniquely adapted and differ in their responses to environmental change. Here, we examine whether diploids and hexaploids from a single mixed-ploidy population of Solidago altissima differ in plasticity and potential response to natural selection under conditions simulating climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Clonal replicates of diploid and hexaploid genotypes were grown in a randomized split-plot design under two temperature (+1.9°C) and two watering treatments (-13% soil moisture) implemented with open-top passive chambers placed under rainout shelters. Physiological, phenological, morphological traits, and a fitness correlate, reproductive biomass, were measured and compared among treatments.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Differences in traits suggest that diploids are currently better adapted to low- water availability than hexaploids. Both ploidy levels had adaptive plastic responses to treatments and are predicted to respond to selection, but often for different traits. Water availability generally had a stronger effect than temperature, but for some traits the effect of water depended on temperature.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Diploid and hexaploid S. altissima may maintain fitness in the short term through adaptive plasticity and evolution depending on which traits are important in a warmer, drier environment. Hexaploids may be at a disadvantage compared to diploids because fewer traits were heritable. Our results underscore the importance of studying combinations of climate variables that are predicted to change simultaneously.}, }
@article {pmid30901490, year = {2019}, author = {Fuller, RS and McGlaughlin, ME}, title = {Calochortus gunnisonii furthers evidence for the complex genetic legacy of historical climate change in the southern Rocky Mountains.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {106}, number = {3}, pages = {477-488}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.1259}, pmid = {30901490}, issn = {1537-2197}, support = {//Colorado Federation of Garden Clubs, Inc./ ; //National Garden Clubs, Inc./ ; //UNC Graduate Student Association/ ; //UNC College of Natural and Health Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Climate cycles of the Quaternary have impacted plants at a global scale, leaving behind a complex genetic legacy. Species of the northern Rocky Mountains of North America were exposed to more uniform glacial patterns than the central and southern ranges, where synergistic relationships between temperature and precipitation caused differences in the timing and extent of glacier onset. We examined the genetic impacts of climate oscillations on Calochortus gunnisonii (Liliaceae) in the central and southern Rocky Mountains.<br><br>METHODS: Populations were sampled from disjunct mountain ranges across the basins of Wyoming and northern and central Colorado. Allelic data from nuclear microsatellites and plastid sequences (trnV-ndhC, petA-psbJ, and rpl16) were used to examine patterns of genetic structure between and among populations along the southern Rocky Mountain corridor.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: We infer considerable population structure concordant with mountain range of origin. Clustering analysis supports separate north and south genetic clusters on either side of major basins in Wyoming, suggesting that populations were maintained in two distinct refugia. Additionally, populations within the Sierra Madre Range of southern Wyoming show localized, divergent genetic signal indicative of a third potential glacial refugium. By contrast, recent genetic admixture is observed in the Laramie, Medicine Bow, and Front ranges, where population expansion from glacial refugia has likely occurred.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that during climate cycles of the Quaternary, C. gunnisonii experienced periods of population expansion and reduction, habitat fragmentation, isolation in three or more refugia, and admixture mirroring genetic impacts of other southern Rocky Mountains organisms.}, }
@article {pmid30900963, year = {2019}, author = {Agamuthu, P and Ragossnig, AM and Velis, C}, title = {Publishing impactful interdisciplinary waste-related research on global challenges: Circular economy, climate change and plastics pollution.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {37}, number = {4}, pages = {313-314}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X19837785}, pmid = {30900963}, issn = {1096-3669}, }
@article {pmid30899064, year = {2019}, author = {Her, Y and Yoo, SH and Cho, J and Hwang, S and Jeong, J and Seong, C}, title = {Uncertainty in hydrological analysis of climate change: multi-parameter vs. multi-GCM ensemble predictions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4974}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-41334-7}, pmid = {30899064}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The quantification of uncertainty in the ensemble-based predictions of climate change and the corresponding hydrological impact is necessary for the development of robust climate adaptation plans. Although the equifinality of hydrological modeling has been discussed for a long time, its influence on the hydrological analysis of climate change has not been studied enough to provide a definite idea about the relative contributions of uncertainty contained in both multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and multi-parameter ensembles to hydrological projections. This study demonstrated that the impact of multi-GCM ensemble uncertainty on direct runoff projections for headwater watersheds could be an order of magnitude larger than that of multi-parameter ensemble uncertainty. The finding suggests that the selection of appropriate GCMs should be much more emphasized than that of a parameter set among behavioral ones. When projecting soil moisture and groundwater, on the other hand, the hydrological modeling equifinality was more influential than the multi-GCM ensemble uncertainty. Overall, the uncertainty of GCM projections was dominant for relatively rapid hydrological components while the uncertainty of hydrological model parameterization was more significant for slow components. In addition, uncertainty in hydrological projections was much more closely associated with uncertainty in the ensemble projections of precipitation than temperature, indicating a need to pay closer attention to precipitation data for improved modeling reliability. Uncertainty in hydrological component ensemble projections showed unique responses to uncertainty in the precipitation and temperature ensembles.}, }
@article {pmid30894642, year = {2019}, author = {Pohl, B and Joly, D and Pergaud, J and Buoncristiani, JF and Soare, P and Berger, A}, title = {Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4919}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5}, pmid = {30894642}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {ANR-14-CE03-0006-04//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; ANR-14-CE03-0006-04//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; ANR-14-CE03-0006-04//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; ANR-14-CE03-0006-04//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; ANR-14-CE03-0006-04//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; ANR-14-CE03-0006-04//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; }, abstract = {Mountains are a sensitive indicator of climate change and these areas are an early glimpse of what could happen in lowland environments. Peaking at 4808 m asl, the Mont-Blanc summit, at the boundary between France and Italy, is the highest of the Alps, in Western Europe. Its Massif is world-famous for outdoor and extreme sport activities, especially since the 1924 Olympic games held in Chamonix. Here, we use a novel statistical downscaling approach to regionalize current and future climate change over the Mont-Blanc Massif at an unequalled spatial resolution of 200 m. The algorithm is applied to daily minimum and maximum temperature derived from global climate models used in the fifth assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This new high-resolution database allows for a precise quantification of frost occurrence and its evolution until 2100. In the winter season and by the end of the 21st century, under a pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), frost frequency in the morning could decrease by 30-35 percentage points in the valley of Chamonix, and in the afternoon, similar changes could occur for elevations comprised between 2000 and 3000 m. In summertime, changes are even larger, reaching a huge drop of 45-50 points in the afternoon between 3500 and 4500 m. These changes are much reduced under an optimistic scenario. They could have huge impacts on the environment (glacier shrinking, permafrost degradation, floods, changes in the distribution of species and ecosystems) and societies (summer tourism for climbing and hiking, and winter tourism for skiing).}, }
@article {pmid30894543, year = {2019}, author = {Danneyrolles, V and Dupuis, S and Fortin, G and Leroyer, M and de Römer, A and Terrail, R and Vellend, M and Boucher, Y and Laflamme, J and Bergeron, Y and Arseneault, D}, title = {Stronger influence of anthropogenic disturbance than climate change on century-scale compositional changes in northern forests.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1265}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09265-z}, pmid = {30894543}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Canada ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Forestry/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forests ; Humans ; Light ; *Models, Statistical ; Plant Dispersal/*physiology ; Temperature ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Predicting future ecosystem dynamics depends critically on an improved understanding of how disturbances and climate change have driven long-term ecological changes in the past. Here we assembled a dataset of >100,000 tree species lists from the 19th century across a broad region (>130,000km2) in temperate eastern Canada, as well as recent forest inventories, to test the effects of changes in anthropogenic disturbance, temperature and moisture on forest dynamics. We evaluate changes in forest composition using four indices quantifying the affinities of co-occurring tree species with temperature, drought, light and disturbance. Land-use driven shifts favouring more disturbance-adapted tree species are far stronger than any effects ascribable to climate change, although the responses of species to disturbance are correlated with their expected responses to climate change. As such, anthropogenic and natural disturbances are expected to have large direct effects on forests and also indirect effects via altered responses to future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30891512, year = {2019}, author = {Coltri, PP and Pinto, HS and Gonçalves, RRDV and Zullo Junior, J and Dubreuil, V}, title = {Low levels of shade and climate change adaptation of Arabica coffee in southeastern Brazil.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {e01263}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e01263}, pmid = {30891512}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Coffee is one of the most consumed beverages in the world, and its international market has been growing for many years. Unfortunately, the Brazilian coffee production is threatened by high temperatures projected by climate change models. We evaluated three schemes of low levels of shade, which avoid the loss of production, as a strategy to adapt coffee to possible climate change. Additionally, as field measurements are expensive and often difficult to implement, we used numerical simulation to complement the evaluation. The microclimate simulator software Envi-met is a computer program often used to simulate urban environments, and we tested it on agriculture design. We verified that the shaded schemes assessed in the field decreased the air temperature in 0.6 °C in the studied period and reduced other possible climate stressors such as wind speed, radiation and raised air humidity in the dry period. Envi-met described the studied meteorological variable cycle very well, showing that combining numerical modelling and field research may be an important tool for planning the adaptation of the coffee sector to possible climate change, allowing growers choose a proper technique for their regions and environmental conditions. Finally, we highlighted the importance of planning the shade scheme on coffee areas in an interdisciplinary approach, including local climate evaluation to achieve a balance between temperature attenuation and production.}, }
@article {pmid30890800, year = {2019}, author = {Warren, M}, title = {Thousands of scientists are backing the kids striking for climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {567}, number = {7748}, pages = {291-292}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00861-z}, pmid = {30890800}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30890178, year = {2019}, author = {Chersich, MF and Wright, CY}, title = {Climate change adaptation in South Africa: a case study on the role of the health sector.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {22}, doi = {10.1186/s12992-019-0466-x}, pmid = {30890178}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Care Sector ; Humans ; Role ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Globally, the response to climate change is gradually gaining momentum as the impacts of climate change unfold. In South Africa, it is increasingly apparent that delays in responding to climate change over the past decades have jeopardized human life and livelihoods. While slow progress with mitigation, especially in the energy sector, has garnered much attention, focus is now shifting to developing plans and systems to adapt to the impacts of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: We applied systematic review methods to assess progress with climate change adaptation in the health sector in South Africa. This case study provides useful lessons which could be applied in other countries in the African region, or globally. We reviewed the literature indexed in PubMed and Web of Science, together with relevant grey literature. We included articles describing adaptation interventions to reduce the impact of climate change on health in South Africa. All study designs were eligible. Data from included articles and grey literature were summed thematically.<br><br>RESULTS: Of the 820 publications screened, 21 were included, together with an additional xx papers. Very few studies presented findings of an intervention or used high-quality research designs. Several policy frameworks for climate change have been developed at national and local government levels. These, however, pay little attention to health concerns and the specific needs of vulnerable groups. Systems for forecasting extreme weather, and tracking malaria and other infections appear well established. Yet, there is little evidence about the country's preparedness for extreme weather events, or the ability of the already strained health system to respond to these events. Seemingly, few adaptation measures have taken place in occupational and other settings. To date, little attention has been given to climate change in training curricula for health workers.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the volume and quality of research is disappointing, and disproportionate to the threat posed by climate change in South Africa. This is surprising given that the requisite expertise for policy advocacy, identifying effective interventions and implementing systems-based approaches rests within the health sector. More effective use of data, a traditional strength of health professionals, could support adaptation and promote accountability of the state. With increased health-sector leadership, climate change could be reframed as predominately a health issue, one necessitating an urgent, adequately-resourced response. Such a shift in South Africa, but also beyond the country, may play a key role in accelerating climate change adaptation and mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid30890094, year = {2019}, author = {Rivrud, IM and Meisingset, EL and Loe, LE and Mysterud, A}, title = {Future suitability of habitat in a migratory ungulate under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1899}, pages = {20190442}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2019.0442}, pmid = {30890094}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {With climate change, the effect of global warming on snow cover is expected to cause range expansion and enhance habitat suitability for species at their northern distribution limits. However, how this depends on landscape topography and sex in size-dimorphic species remains uncertain, and is further complicated for migratory animals following climate-driven seasonal resource fluctuations across vast landscapes. Using 11 years of data from a partially migratory ungulate at their northern distribution ranges, the red deer (Cervus elaphus), we predicted sex-specific summer and winter habitat suitability in diverse landscapes under medium and severe global warming. We found large increases in future winter habitat suitability, resulting in expansion of winter ranges as currently unsuitable habitat became suitable. Even moderate warming decreased snow cover substantially, with no suitability difference between warming scenarios. Winter ranges will hence not expand linearly with warming, even for species at their northern distribution limits. Although less pronounced than in winter, summer ranges also expanded and more so under severe warming. Summer habitat suitability was positively correlated with landscape topography and ranges expanded more for females than males. Our study highlights the complexity of predicting future habitat suitability for conservation and management of size-dimorphic, migratory species under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid30886391, year = {2019}, author = {Strandén, I and Kantanen, J and Russo, IM and Orozco-terWengel, P and Bruford, MW and , }, title = {Genomic selection strategies for breeding adaptation and production in dairy cattle under climate change.}, journal = {Heredity}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41437-019-0207-1}, pmid = {30886391}, issn = {1365-2540}, abstract = {Livestock production both contributes to and is affected by global climate change, and substantial modifications will be required to increase its climate resilience. In this context, reliance on dominant commercial livestock breeds, featuring small effective population sizes, makes current production strategies vulnerable if their production is restricted to environments, which may be too costly to support under future climate scenarios. The adaptability of animal populations to future environments will therefore become important. To help evaluate the role of genetics in climate adaptation, we compared selection strategies in dairy cattle using breeding simulations, where genomic selection was used on two negatively correlated traits for production (assumed to be moderately heritable) and adaptation (assumed to have low heritability). Compared with within-population breeding, genomic introgression produced a more positive genetic change for both production and adaptation traits. Genomic introgression from highly adapted but low production value populations into highly productive but low adaptation populations was most successful when the adaptation trait was given a lower selection weight than the production trait. Genomic introgression from highly productive population to highly adapted population was most successful when the adaptation trait was given a higher selection weight than the production trait. Both these genomic introgression schemes had the lowest risk of inbreeding. Our results suggest that both adaptation and production can potentially be improved simultaneously by genomic introgression.}, }
@article {pmid30884421, year = {2019}, author = {Liu-Helmersson, J and Rocklöv, J and Sewe, M and Brännström, Å}, title = {Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {172}, number = {}, pages = {693-699}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.02.026}, pmid = {30884421}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change allows Aedes aegypti to infest new areas. Consequently, it enables the arboviruses the mosquito transmits -- e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever - to emerge in previously uninfected areas. An example is the Portuguese island of Madeira during 2012-13.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: We aim to understand how climate change will affect the future spread of this potent vector, as an aid in assessing the risk of disease outbreaks and effectively allocating resources for vector control.<br><br>METHODS: We used an empirically-informed, process-based mathematical model to study the feasibility of Aedes aegypti infestation into continental Europe. Based on established global climate-change scenario data, we assess the potential of Aedes aegypti to establish in Europe over the 21st century by estimating the vector population growth rate for five climate models (GCM5).<br><br>RESULTS: In a low carbon emission future (RCP2.6), we find minimal change to the current situation throughout the whole of the 21st century. In a high carbon future (RCP8.5), a large parts of southern Europe risks being invaded by Aedes aegypti.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our results show that successfully enforcing the Paris Agreement by limiting global warming to below 2 °C significantly lowers the risk for infestation of Aedes aegypti and consequently of potential large-scale arboviral disease outbreaks in Europe within the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid30884039, year = {2019}, author = {Piao, S and Liu, Q and Chen, A and Janssens, IA and Fu, Y and Dai, J and Liu, L and Lian, X and Shen, M and Zhu, X}, title = {Plant phenology and global climate change: Current progresses and challenges.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14619}, pmid = {30884039}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {B14001//The 111 Project/ ; 41530528//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; //National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China/ ; }, abstract = {Plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, is important for plant functioning and ecosystem services and their biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. Plant phenology depends on temperature, and the current rapid climate change has revived interest in understanding and modeling the responses of plant phenology to the warming trend and the consequences thereof for ecosystems. Here, we review recent progresses in plant phenology and its interactions with climate change. Focusing on the start (leaf unfolding) and end (leaf coloring) of plant growing seasons, we show that the recent rapid expansion in ground- and remote sensing- based phenology data acquisition has been highly beneficial and has supported major advances in plant phenology research. Studies using multiple data sources and methods generally agree on the trends of advanced leaf unfolding and delayed leaf coloring due to climate change, yet these trends appear to have decelerated or even reversed in recent years. Our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the plant phenology responses to climate warming is still limited. The interactions between multiple drivers complicate the modeling and prediction of plant phenology changes. Furthermore, changes in plant phenology have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycles and ecosystem feedbacks to climate, yet the quantification of such impacts remains challenging. We suggest that future studies should primarily focus on using new observation tools to improve the understanding of tropical plant phenology, on improving process-based phenology modeling, and on the scaling of phenology from species to landscape-level.}, }
@article {pmid30878946, year = {2019}, author = {Bhutta, ZA and Aimone, A and Akhtar, S}, title = {Climate change and global child health: what can paediatricians do?.}, journal = {Archives of disease in childhood}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/archdischild-2018-316694}, pmid = {30878946}, issn = {1468-2044}, }
@article {pmid30878100, year = {2019}, author = {Sisodiya, SM and Scheffer, IE and Lowenstein, DH and Free, SL}, title = {Why should a neurologist worry about climate change?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Neurology}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {335-336}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-4422(19)30081-X}, pmid = {30878100}, issn = {1474-4465}, }
@article {pmid30877291, year = {2019}, author = {Anderson, GB and Barnes, EA and Bell, ML and Dominici, F}, title = {The future of climate epidemiology: Opportunities for advancing health research in the context of climate change.}, journal = {American journal of epidemiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aje/kwz034}, pmid = {30877291}, issn = {1476-6256}, abstract = {In the coming decades, climate change is expected to dramatically affect communities worldwide, altering the patterns of many ambient exposures and disasters, including extreme temperatures, heat waves, wildfires, droughts, and floods. These exposures in turn can affect risks for a variety of human diseases and health outcomes. Climate epidemiology plays an important role in informing policy related to climate change and its threats to public health. Climate epidemiology leverages deep, integrated collaborations between epidemiologists and climate scientists to understand the current and potential future impacts of climate-related exposures on human health. A variety of recent and ongoing developments in climate science are creating new avenues for epidemiological contributions. Here, we discuss the contributions of climate epidemiology and describe some key current research directions, including research to better characterize uncertainty in climate health projections. We end by outlining three developing areas of climate science that are creating opportunities for high-impact epidemiological advances in the near future: (1) climate attribution studies, (2) subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, and (3) decadal predictions.}, }
@article {pmid30875123, year = {2019}, author = {Foster, S and Leichenko, R and Nguyen, KH and Blake, R and Kunreuther, H and Madajewicz, M and Petkova, EP and Zimmerman, R and Corbin-Mark, C and Yeampierre, E and Tovar, A and Herrera, C and Ravenborg, D}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 6: Community-Based Assessments of Adaptation and Equity.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {126-173}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14009}, pmid = {30875123}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; //New York City Emergency Management/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875122, year = {2019}, author = {Solecki, W and Rosenzweig, C}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 9: Perspectives on a City in a Changing Climate 2008-2018.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {280-305}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14017}, pmid = {30875122}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Emergency Management/ ; //FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875120, year = {2019}, author = {Gornitz, V and Oppenheimer, M and Kopp, R and Orton, P and Buchanan, M and Lin, N and Horton, R and Bader, D}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 3: Sea Level Rise.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {71-94}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14006}, pmid = {30875120}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/ ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875118, year = {2019}, author = {González, JE and Ortiz, L and Smith, BK and Devineni, N and Colle, B and Booth, JF and Ravindranath, A and Rivera, L and Horton, R and Towey, K and Kushnir, Y and Manley, D and Bader, D and Rosenzweig, C}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 2: New Methods for Assessing Extreme Temperatures, Heavy Downpours, and Drought.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {30-70}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14007}, pmid = {30875118}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/ ; //FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875117, year = {2019}, author = {Blake, R and Jacob, K and Yohe, G and Zimmerman, R and Manley, D and Solecki, W and Rosenzweig, C}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 8: Indicators and Monitoring.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {230-279}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14014}, pmid = {30875117}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/ ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875116, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report: Conclusions and Recommendations.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {306-311}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14032}, pmid = {30875116}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; //New York City Emergency Management/ ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875114, year = {2019}, author = {Zimmerman, R and Foster, S and González, JE and Jacob, K and Kunreuther, H and Petkova, EP and Tollerson, E}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 7: Resilience Strategies for Critical Infrastructures and Their Interdependencies.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {174-229}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14010}, pmid = {30875114}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Emergency Management/ ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; //FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875112, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Executive Summary.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {11-21}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14008}, pmid = {30875112}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; //New York City Emergency Management/ ; //FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875111, year = {2019}, author = {Patrick, L and Solecki, W and Gornitz, V and Orton, P and Blumberg, A}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 5: Mapping Climate Risk.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {115-125}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14015}, pmid = {30875111}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/ ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30875110, year = {2019}, author = {Rosenzweig, C and Solecki, W}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 1: Introduction.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {22-29}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14004}, pmid = {30875110}, issn = {1749-6632}, }
@article {pmid30875109, year = {2019}, author = {Orton, P and Lin, N and Gornitz, V and Colle, B and Booth, J and Feng, K and Buchanan, M and Oppenheimer, M and Patrick, L}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {95-114}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14011}, pmid = {30875109}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/ ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/ ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/ ; }, }
@article {pmid30873791, year = {2018}, author = {Riojas-Rodríguez, H and Quezada-Jiménez, ML and Zúñiga-Bello, P and Hurtado-Díaz, M}, title = {Climate Change and Potential Health Effects in Mexican Children.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {84}, number = {2}, pages = {281-284}, doi = {10.29024/aogh.915}, pmid = {30873791}, issn = {2214-9996}, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is the most important challenge of our time, a long-term global problem and one of the most serious global threats to human health in the future. CC is the expression of changes in temperature and water cycle, floods and drought events, extreme heat waves and sea level rise. Children are particularly vulnerable because they are highly sensitive to climate changes. The main environmental hazards affecting children's health are poor household drinking water quality and availability, lack access to adequate sanitary facilities, poor hygiene practices, outdoor and indoor air pollution, vector-borne diseases, chemical hazards, and unintentional injuries. Except for some unintentional injuries, these environmental hazards are associated to CC.}, }
@article {pmid30873334, year = {2019}, author = {Germond, B and Ha, FW}, title = {Climate change and maritime security narrative: the case of the international maritime organisation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental studies and sciences}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1-12}, doi = {10.1007/s13412-018-0509-2}, pmid = {30873334}, issn = {2190-6483}, abstract = {Both climate change and maritime security are currently ranking high on states' and international organisations' political and governance agendas. However, academics and practitioners alike have hardly tackled the actual interlinkages and dependencies between the two issues. Taking the International Maritime Organization (IMO) as a case study, this article pioneers the use of corpus linguistic method to unravel the nonexistence of a narrative linking climate change impacts and the occurrence of maritime criminality despite some connections in practice. However, direct narrative links between climate change and migration as well as migration and maritime security were found, which can point at an indirect link between climate change and maritime security. The article concludes on the implications of these findings for academics and practitioners alike. The latter are encouraged to reflect on their current narrative in a bid to contribute to a better acknowledgement of the existing links between the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems and aspects of maritime security.}, }
@article {pmid30872720, year = {2019}, author = {Takemura, T and Suzuki, K}, title = {Weak global warming mitigation by reducing black carbon emissions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4419}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-41181-6}, pmid = {30872720}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {JP15H01728//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; TOUGOU program//Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT)/ ; }, abstract = {Reducing black carbon (BC), i.e. soot, in the atmosphere is a potential mitigation measure for climate change before revealing the effect of reducing anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) because BC with shorter lifetime than CO2 absorbs solar and infrared radiation. BC has a strong positive radiative forcing in the atmosphere, as indicated in many previous studies. Here, we show that the decline in surface air temperatures with reduced BC emissions is weaker than would be expected from the magnitude of its instantaneous radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Climate simulations show that the global mean change in surface air temperature per unit of instantaneous radiative forcing of BC at the TOA is about one-eighth that of sulphate aerosols, which cool the climate through scattering solar radiation, without absorption. This is attributed to the positive radiation budget of BC being largely compensated for by rapid atmospheric adjustment, whereas the radiative imbalance due to sulphate aerosols drives a slow response of climate over a long timescale. Regional climate responses to short-lived species are shown to exhibit even more complex characteristics due to their heterogeneous spatial distributions, requiring further analysis in future studies.}, }
@article {pmid30872300, year = {2019}, author = {Whitehorn, J and Yacoub, S}, title = {Global warming and arboviral infections.}, journal = {Clinical medicine (London, England)}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {149-152}, doi = {10.7861/clinmedicine.19-2-149}, pmid = {30872300}, issn = {1473-4893}, abstract = {Climate change is already expanding the geographic footprint of arboviral infections. In this article we consider the impact of climate change on three arboviruses with particular consideration of the effect on Europe.}, }
@article {pmid30870674, year = {2019}, author = {Baskent, EZ}, title = {Exploring the effects of climate change mitigation scenarios on timber, water, biodiversity and carbon values: A case study in Pozantı planning unit, Turkey.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {238}, number = {}, pages = {420-433}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.024}, pmid = {30870674}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This study evaluated the performance of three climate change mitigation management scenarios; business as usual (BAU), low intensity management (LIM) and high intensity management (HIM) to provide ecosystem services. ETCAP simulation model was used to forecast forest development for Pozantı area with 17,603 ha forests in Turkey. Wood production, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration and water provision were the primary ecosystem services. The species composition, natural composition, key habitats and understory vegetation are maintained and small forest openings were left intact for wildlife. Some forest areas were allowed to develop older to provide better opportunities of biodiversity conservation. The increase of carbon stock was related to age class shifts to older stages due mainly to increasing afforestation areas and productivity. The marginal differences in total carbon balance were related to a smaller increase in volume increment in BAU scenario and a higher allocation of harvest to energy production for the LIM and HIM scenarios. The planning scenarios allowed better production of water runoffs with slight differences among the output of management scenarios. The prevailing variable was the areas of afforestation. The impacts of a forest management scenario on ecosystem services highly depend on the development rate and intensity of management interventions.}, }
@article {pmid30868238, year = {2019}, author = {Mabhaudhi, T and Chimonyo, VGP and Hlahla, S and Massawe, F and Mayes, S and Nhamo, L and Modi, AT}, title = {Prospects of orphan crops in climate change.}, journal = {Planta}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00425-019-03129-y}, pmid = {30868238}, issn = {1432-2048}, support = {WRC K5/2717//Water Research Commission (WRC)/ ; K5/2493//Water Research Commission (WRC)/ ; Grant number - 205200/Z/16/Z//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {MAIN CONCLUSION: Orphan crops can contribute to building resilience of marginal cropping systems as a climate chnage adaptation strategy. Orphan crops play an important role in global food and nutrition security, and may have potential to contribute to sustainable food systems under climate change. Owing to reports of their potential under water scarcity, there is an argument to promote them to sustainably address challenges such as increasing drought and water scarcity, food and nutrition insecurity, environmental degradation, and employment creation under climate change. We conducted a scoping review using online databases to identify the prospects of orphan crops to contribute to (1) sustainable and healthy food systems, (2) genetic resources for future crop improvement, and (3) improving agricultural sustainability under climate change. The review found that, as a product of generations of landrace agriculture, several orphan crops are nutritious, resilient, and adapted to niche marginal agricultural environments. Including such orphan crops in the existing monocultural cropping systems could support more sustainable, nutritious, and diverse food systems in marginalised agricultural environments. Orphan crops also represent a broad gene pool for future crop improvement. The reduction in arable land due to climate change offers opportunities to expand the area under their production. Their suitability to marginal niche and low-input environments offers opportunities for low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from an agro-ecosystems, production, and processing perspective. This, together with their status as a sub-set of agro-biodiversity, offers opportunities to address socio-economic and environmental challenges under climate change. With research and development, and policy to support them, orphan crops could play an important role in climate-change adaptation, especially in the global south.}, }
@article {pmid30867993, year = {2019}, author = {Sosa, V and Loera, I and Angulo, DF and Vásquez-Cruz, M and Gándara, E}, title = {Climate change and conservation in a warm North American desert: effect in shrubby plants.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6572}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.6572}, pmid = {30867993}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background: Deserts are biologically rich habitats with a vast array of animals and plants adapted to xeric conditions, and most deserts are among the planet's last remaining areas of total wilderness. Among North American deserts, the Chihuahuan Desert has the highest levels of diversity and endemism. To understand the effect of future climate change on plants distributed in this arid land and propose effective conservation planning, we focused on five endemic shrubby species that characterize the Chihuahuan Desert and used an integrative approach.<br><br>Methods: Ecological niche-based modeling, spatial genetics and ecological resistance analyses were carried out to identify the effect of global warming on the studied five shrubby species. Key areas that need to be preserved were identified taking into account the existing protected areas within the Chihuahuan Desert.<br><br>Results: The extent of future distribution will vary among these species, and on average expansion will occur in the western part of the Chihuahuan Desert. For most species low environmental resistance to gene flow was predicted, while higher future resistance was predicted for one species that would lead to increased population isolation. The highest haplotype diversity was identified in three hotspots. Based on future suitability of habitat and in the haplotype diversity we suggest preserving two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental, located in areas without protection. The third hotspot was detected in the well preserved Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Man and Biosphere Reserve.<br><br>Conclusion: Global climate change will have an effect in arid adapted plants, favoring expansion in the western of the Chihuahuan Desert however negatively affecting others with high ecological resistance disrupting gene flow. Two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental should be protected.}, }
@article {pmid30867474, year = {2019}, author = {Barnard, PL and Erikson, LH and Foxgrover, AC and Hart, JAF and Limber, P and O'Neill, AC and van Ormondt, M and Vitousek, S and Wood, N and Hayden, MK and Jones, JM}, title = {Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4309}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-40742-z}, pmid = {30867474}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comprehensively accounted for dynamic physical drivers such as tidal non-linearity, storms, short-term climate variability, erosion response and consequent flooding responses. Here we present a dynamic modeling approach that estimates climate-driven changes in flood-hazard exposure by integrating the effects of SLR, tides, waves, storms, and coastal change (i.e. beach erosion and cliff retreat). We show that for California, USA, the world's 5th largest economy, over $150 billion of property equating to more than 6% of the state's GDP and 600,000 people could be impacted by dynamic flooding by 2100; a three-fold increase in exposed population than if only SLR and a static coastline are considered. The potential for underestimating societal exposure to coastal flooding is greater for smaller SLR scenarios, up to a seven-fold increase in exposed population and economic interests when considering storm conditions in addition to SLR. These results highlight the importance of including climate-change driven dynamic coastal processes and impacts in both short-term hazard mitigation and long-term adaptation planning.}, }
@article {pmid30867437, year = {2019}, author = {Pino, M and Abarzúa, AM and Astorga, G and Martel-Cea, A and Cossio-Montecinos, N and Navarro, RX and Lira, MP and Labarca, R and LeCompte, MA and Adedeji, V and Moore, CR and Bunch, TE and Mooney, C and Wolbach, WS and West, A and Kennett, JP}, title = {Sedimentary record from Patagonia, southern Chile supports cosmic-impact triggering of biomass burning, climate change, and megafaunal extinctions at 12.8 ka.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4413}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-38089-y}, pmid = {30867437}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {1150738//Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cient&amp;#x00ED;fico y Tecnol&amp;#x00F3;gico (National Fund for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; 1100555//Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cient&amp;#x00ED;fico y Tecnol&amp;#x00F3;gico (National Fund for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; 3170958//Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cient&amp;#x00ED;fico y Tecnol&amp;#x00F3;gico (National Fund for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; }, abstract = {The Younger Dryas (YD) impact hypothesis posits that fragments of a large, disintegrating asteroid/comet struck North America, South America, Europe, and western Asia ~12,800 years ago. Multiple airbursts/impacts produced the YD boundary layer (YDB), depositing peak concentrations of platinum, high-temperature spherules, meltglass, and nanodiamonds, forming an isochronous datum at >50 sites across ~50 million km² of Earth's surface. This proposed event triggered extensive biomass burning, brief impact winter, YD climate change, and contributed to extinctions of late Pleistocene megafauna. In the most extensive investigation south of the equator, we report on a ~12,800-year-old sequence at Pilauco, Chile (~40°S), that exhibits peak YD boundary concentrations of platinum, gold, high-temperature iron- and chromium-rich spherules, and native iron particles rarely found in nature. A major peak in charcoal abundance marks an intense biomass-burning episode, synchronous with dramatic changes in vegetation, including a high-disturbance regime, seasonality in precipitation, and warmer conditions. This is anti-phased with northern-hemispheric cooling at the YD onset, whose rapidity suggests atmospheric linkage. The sudden disappearance of megafaunal remains and dung fungi in the YDB layer at Pilauco correlates with megafaunal extinctions across the Americas. The Pilauco record appears consistent with YDB impact evidence found at sites on four continents.}, }
@article {pmid30866725, year = {2019}, author = {Peek, B}, title = {groundWork Environmental Justice Action Climate Change Letter to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, December 2018.}, journal = {New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1048291119835446}, doi = {10.1177/1048291119835446}, pmid = {30866725}, issn = {1541-3772}, abstract = {groundWork is one of South Africa's leading environmental justice organizations and the local affiliate of Friend of the Earth. It was formed in 1999 to support people's struggles for environmental justice. In the most unequal of countries, groundWork is part of the struggle for an egalitarian society in which people can live well with each other and with the earth. The following letter was sent to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in December 2018 urging him to take a Just Transition approach to climate change policies so that the economic and social transition eliminates poverty, improves public health, and strengthens the nation's democracy.}, }
@article {pmid30865494, year = {2019}, author = {Greenberg, MR}, title = {A Persuasive Presentation Connecting the Dots Between Climate Change and Public Health.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {109}, number = {4}, pages = {527-529}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2019.304989}, pmid = {30865494}, issn = {1541-0048}, }
@article {pmid30864071, year = {2019}, author = {Veldsman, LM and Kylin, H and Bronkhorst, P and Engelbrecht, I and Bouwman, H}, title = {A method to determine the combined effects of climate change (temperature and humidity) and eggshell thickness on water loss from bird eggs.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10653-019-00274-x}, pmid = {30864071}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {General funds//North-West University/ ; }, abstract = {Differences in bird eggshell thicknesses occur due to numerous factors, including thinning due to persistent organic pollutants. Not only does thinning weaken the shell; weaker shells combined with elevated ambient temperature and changes in humidities may result in changes in water loss rates from the egg contents. Therefore, thinner eggshells raise concern of water being lost faster than normal at lower relative humidities, which may affect hatching. To investigate the combined effects, we developed and tested an effective method that measures water loss through different thickness eggshells at controlled temperatures and relative humidities to assist in ascertaining the combined effects of climate change (temperature and humidity) and changes in eggshell thickness on bird reproduction. The fastest rate of loss was at 40% RH at 40 °C (0.1 mL/cm2/day), and the slowest was at 22 °C at 80% RH (0.02 mL/cm2/day). Eggshell thickness had a significant effect on water loss at all humidity treatments, except at the highest temperature and humidity treatment (80% RH and 40 °C). Temperature explained 40% of the variance, RH explained 20%, and interactions between temperature and humidity explained 15% of the variance (repeated-measures, two-way ANOVA). Generalized linear analyses revealed that both factors temperature and humidity contributed significantly in any two-way combinations. We have laid the ground for a system to test the combined effects of temperature and humidity changes associated with climate change and eggshell thinning associated with pollutants, on water loss across eggshells.}, }
@article {pmid30863672, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, CJ and Li, QF and Wan, JZ}, title = {Potential invasive plant expansion in global ecoregions under climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6479}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.6479}, pmid = {30863672}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Climate change is increasing the risk of invasive plant expansion worldwide. However, few studies have specified the relationship between invasive plant expansion and ecoregions at the global scale under climate change. To address this gap, we provide risk maps highlighting the response of invasive plant species (IPS), with a focus on terrestrial and freshwater ecoregions to climate change, and further explore the climatic features of ecosystems with a high potential for invasive plant expansion under climate change. We use species distribution modelling to predict the suitable habitats of IPS with records at the global scale. Hotspots with a potential risk of IPS (such as aquatic plants, trees, and herbs) expanding in global ecoregions were distributed in Northern Europe, the UK, South America, North America, southwest China, and New Zealand. Temperature changes were related to the potential of IPS expansion in global ecoregions under climate change. Coastal and high latitude ecoregions, such as temperate forests, alpine vegetation, and coastal rivers, were severely infiltrated by IPS under climate change. Monitoring strategies should be defined for climate change for IPS, particularly for aquatic plants, trees, and herbs in the biomes of regions with coastal or high latitudes. The role of climate change on the potential for IPS expansion should be taken into consideration for biological conservation and risk evaluation of IPS at ecoregional scales.}, }
@article {pmid30863509, year = {2019}, author = {Nyahunda, L and Tirivangasi, HM}, title = {Challenges faced by rural people in mitigating the effects of climate change in the Mazungunye communal lands, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {596}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.596}, pmid = {30863509}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {The phenomenon of climate change is one of the most contested and debated concepts globally. Some governments still deny the existence of climate change and its impact on rural-urban areas around the world. However, the effects of climate change have been visible in rural Zimbabwe, with some communities facing food insecurity, water scarcity and loss of livestock. Climate change has impacted negatively on agriculture, which is the main source of livelihood in Zimbabwe's rural communities. This study aims at exploring challenges faced by rural people in mitigating the effects of climate change in the Mazungunye community, Masvingo Province, in Zimbabwe. The objectives of the study were to identify the challenges that impede effective adaptation of rural people to climate change hazards and to examine their perceptions on how to foster effective adaptation. The researchers conducted a qualitative research study guided by descriptive and exploratory research designs. Purposive sampling was employed to draw the population of the study. The population sample consisted of 26 research participants drawn from members of the community. Data was collected through in-depth individual interviews and focus group discussions. Thematic content analysis was used to analyse data. The findings of the study revealed the following challenges: unpredictability of indigenous knowledge systems, lack of resources and technoscience adaptive methods, lack of support to implement viable mitigation strategies, lack of information about resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change. This study has significance to policymakers and other stakeholders concerned with devising and implementing policies and programmes that are responsive to rural people's needs in the climate change terrain, tapping into their presenting challenges as a departure point for intervention. The study recommended that the most important way to help rural poor people adapt to climate change is through the provision of information; immediate response to needs and climate-smart agricultural policies.}, }
@article {pmid30863507, year = {2019}, author = {Mondal, MSH}, title = {The implications of population growth and climate change on sustainable development in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {535}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.535}, pmid = {30863507}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Bangladesh is characterised by its large population on a small land, rapid and unplanned urbanisation, rising urban inequalities, food and nutritional insecurity and lower level of resilience to climate change. These combined effects are major threats to food security of the country in the near future. This paper examined the implications of population growth and climate change on sustainable development of Bangladesh. This research was based on the analysis of chronological data and synthesis of literature on population growth, greenhouse gases emission, climate change, food security and sustainable development, mainly contextualised on Bangladesh. The analysis found that the population of Bangladesh has almost doubled between 1980 and 2015. The country shared around 2.2% (in 2013) of global population and contributed only 0.19% of global carbon dioxide emission. On the contrary, climate change is the biggest challenge for the country. An increase in temperature could decline rice and wheat production. Moreover, average monsoon rainfall would be increased as a result of increased temperature. The increase in temperature and rainfall may lead to early arrival and late departure of the monsoon season or an increase in mean daily rainfall intensity. Population growth and climate change have multiple implications on development. Therefore, sustainable development may be difficult to attain if climate change continues to jeopardise economic growth, environmental stability as well as the social progress of Bangladesh.}, }
@article {pmid30862928, year = {2019}, author = {Mega, ER}, title = {Cuba acknowledges climate change threats in its constitution.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {567}, number = {7747}, pages = {155}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00760-3}, pmid = {30862928}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30862793, year = {2019}, author = {Valenzuela, N and Literman, R and Neuwald, JL and Mizoguchi, B and Iverson, JB and Riley, JL and Litzgus, JD}, title = {Extreme thermal fluctuations from climate change unexpectedly accelerate demographic collapse of vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4254}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-40597-4}, pmid = {30862793}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {IOS-0743284//NSF | BIO | Division of Integrative Organismal Systems (IOS)/ ; IOS-1555999//NSF | BIO | Division of Integrative Organismal Systems (IOS)/ ; MCB-0815354//NSF | BIO | Division of Molecular and Cellular Biosciences (MCB)/ ; MCB-1244355//NSF | BIO | Division of Molecular and Cellular Biosciences (MCB)/ ; }, abstract = {Global climate is warming rapidly, threatening vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) by disrupting sex ratios and other traits. Less understood are the effects of increased thermal fluctuations predicted to accompany climate change. Greater fluctuations could accelerate feminization of species that produce females under warmer conditions (further endangering TSD animals), or counter it (reducing extinction risk). Here we use novel experiments exposing eggs of Painted Turtles (Chrysemys picta) to replicated profiles recorded in field nests plus mathematically-modified profiles of similar shape but wider oscillations, and develop a new mathematical model for analysis. We show that broadening fluctuations around naturally male-producing (cooler) profiles feminizes developing embryos, whereas embryos from warmer profiles remain female or die. This occurs presumably because wider oscillations around cooler profiles expose embryos to very low temperatures that inhibit development, and to feminizing temperatures where most embryogenesis accrues. Likewise, embryos incubated under broader fluctuations around warmer profiles experience mostly feminizing temperatures, some dangerously high (which increase mortality), and fewer colder values that are insufficient to induce male development. Therefore, as thermal fluctuations escalate with global warming, the feminization of TSD turtle populations could accelerate, facilitating extinction by demographic collapse. Aggressive global CO2 mitigation scenarios (RCP2.6) could prevent these risks, while intermediate actions (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios) yield moderate feminization, highlighting the peril that insufficient reductions of greenhouse gas emissions pose for TSD taxa. If our findings are generalizable, TSD squamates, tuatara, and crocodilians that produce males at warmer temperatures could suffer accelerated masculinization, underscoring the broad taxonomic threats of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30858310, year = {2019}, author = {Davis, KT and Dobrowski, SZ and Higuera, PE and Holden, ZA and Veblen, TT and Rother, MT and Parks, SA and Sala, A and Maneta, MP}, title = {Wildfires and climate change push low-elevation forests across a critical climate threshold for tree regeneration.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {13}, pages = {6193-6198}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1815107116}, pmid = {30858310}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate change is increasing fire activity in the western United States, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in vegetation communities. Wildfire can catalyze vegetation change by killing adult trees that could otherwise persist in climate conditions no longer suitable for seedling establishment and survival. Recently documented declines in postfire conifer recruitment in the western United States may be an example of this phenomenon. However, the role of annual climate variation and its interaction with long-term climate trends in driving these changes is poorly resolved. Here we examine the relationship between annual climate and postfire tree regeneration of two dominant, low-elevation conifers (ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir) using annually resolved establishment dates from 2,935 destructively sampled trees from 33 wildfires across four regions in the western United States. We show that regeneration had a nonlinear response to annual climate conditions, with distinct thresholds for recruitment based on vapor pressure deficit, soil moisture, and maximum surface temperature. At dry sites across our study region, seasonal to annual climate conditions over the past 20 years have crossed these thresholds, such that conditions have become increasingly unsuitable for regeneration. High fire severity and low seed availability further reduced the probability of postfire regeneration. Together, our results demonstrate that climate change combined with high severity fire is leading to increasingly fewer opportunities for seedlings to establish after wildfires and may lead to ecosystem transitions in low-elevation ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir forests across the western United States.}, }
@article {pmid30858188, year = {2019}, author = {Mercer, C}, title = {Medical students call for more education on climate change.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {191}, number = {10}, pages = {E291-E292}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-5717}, pmid = {30858188}, issn = {1488-2329}, }
@article {pmid30856572, year = {2019}, author = {Fang, X and Guo, X and Zhang, C and Shao, H and Zhu, S and Li, Z and Feng, X and He, B}, title = {Contributions of climate change to the terrestrial carbon stock of the arid region of China: A multi-dataset analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {668}, number = {}, pages = {631-644}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.408}, pmid = {30856572}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Dryland ecosystems have been threatened in recent decades by rapid climate change. However, the effects of climate change and rising CO2 levels on the terrestrial carbon stock of the arid region of China remain unclear. In this study, we used three climate reanalysis datasets to drive an arid ecosystem model (AEM), which we used to assess uncertainties in spatial climate datasets. All simulations suggest that the arid region of China acted as a carbon sink (0.20-0.34 Pg C) from 1980 to 2014. However, we found large uncertainties in the spatial pattern of carbon stocks during this period, especially in northern Xinjiang and western Inner Mongolia. These uncertainties are related to changes in precipitation. To reduce the uncertainty of carbon stock assessment results in the arid region of China, efforts should be implemented to improve the reliability of climate data in northern Xinjiang and western Inner Mongolia. Specifically, China's policy makers should pay close attention to climate change and ecosystem health in southwestern Xinjiang. According to our study, this area experienced significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature from 1980 to 2014. The severe ecosystem degradation that occurred will very likely continue into the future. In addition, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset may overestimate ecosystem carbon sinks as this dataset overestimates the increase in precipitation in the arid region of China. Therefore, it is advisable to be cautious when using the CFSR dataset in ecological studies in northern Eurasian dryland areas.}, }
@article {pmid30853924, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, S and Hurlstone, MJ and Leviston, Z and Walker, I and Lawrence, C}, title = {Climate Change From a Distance: An Analysis of Construal Level and Psychological Distance From Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {230}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00230}, pmid = {30853924}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {The public perception of climate change as abstract and distant may undermine climate action. According to construal level theory, whether a phenomenon is perceived as psychologically distant or close is associated with whether it is construed as abstract or concrete, respectively. Previous work has established a link between psychological distance and climate action, but the associated role of construal level has yet to be explored in depth. In two representative surveys of Australians (N = 217 and N = 216), and one experiment (N = 319), we tested whether construal level and psychological distance from climate change predicted pro-environmental intentions and policy support, and whether manipulating distance and construal increased pro-environmental behaviors such as donations. Results showed that psychological closeness to climate change predicted more engagement in pro-environmental behaviors, while construal level produced inconsistent results, and manipulations of both variables failed to produce increases in pro-environmental behaviors. In contrast with the central tenet of construal level theory, construal level was unrelated to psychological distance in all three studies. Our findings suggest that the hypothesized relationship between construal level and psychological distance may not hold in the context of climate change, and that it may be difficult to change pro-environmental behavior by manipulating these variables.}, }
@article {pmid30852437, year = {2019}, author = {Adhikari, K and Owens, PR and Libohova, Z and Miller, DM and Wills, SA and Nemecek, J}, title = {Assessing soil organic carbon stock of Wisconsin, USA and its fate under future land use and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {667}, number = {}, pages = {833-845}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.420}, pmid = {30852437}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Carbon stored in soils contributes to a variety of soil functions, including biomass production, water storage and filtering, biodiversity maintenance, and many other ecosystem services. Understanding soil organic carbon (SOC) spatial distribution and projection of its future condition is essential for future CO2 emission estimates and management options for storing carbon. However, modeling SOC spatiotemporal dynamics is challenging due to the inherent spatial heterogeneity and data limitation. The present study developed a spatially explicit prediction model in which the spatial relationship between SOC observation and seventeen environmental variables was established using the Cubist regression tree algorithm. The model was used to compile a baseline SOC stock map for the top 30 cm soil depth in the State of Wisconsin (WI) at a 90 m × 90 m grid resolution. Temporal SOC trend was assessed by comparing baseline and future SOC stock maps based on the space-for-time substitution model. SOC prediction for future considers land use, precipitation and temperature for the year 2050 at medium (A1B) CO2 emissions scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Field soil observations were related to factors that are known to influence SOC distribution using the digital soil mapping framework. The model was validated on 25% test profiles (R2: 0.38; RMSE: 0.64; ME: -0.03) that were not used during model training that used the remaining 75% of the data (R2: 0.76; RMSE: 0.40; ME: -0.006). In addition, maps of the model error, and areal extent of Cubist prediction rules were reported. The model identified soil parent material and land use as key drivers of SOC distribution including temperature and precipitation. Among the terrain attributes, elevation, mass-balance index, mid-slope position, slope-length factor and wind effect were important. Results showed that Wisconsin soils had an average baseline SOC stock of 90 Mg ha-1 and the distribution was highly variable (CV: 64%). It was estimated that WI soils would have an additional 20 Mg ha-1 SOC by the year 2050 under changing land use and climate. Histosols and Spodosols were expected to lose 19 Mg ha-1 and 4 Mg ha-1, respectively, while Mollisols were expected to accumulate the largest SOC stock (62 Mg ha-1). All land-use types would be accumulating SOC by 2050 except for wetlands (-34 Mg C ha-1). This study found that Wisconsin soils will continue to sequester more carbon in the coming decades and most of the Driftless Area will be sequestering the greatest SOC (+63 Mg C ha-1). Most of the SOC would be lost from the Northern Lakes and Forests ecological zone (-12 Mg C ha-1). The study highlighted areas of potential C sequestration and areas under threat of C loss. The maps generated in this study would be highly useful in farm management and environmental policy decisions at different spatial levels in Wisconsin.}, }
@article {pmid30852195, year = {2019}, author = {Novak, T and Godrijan, J and Pfannkuchen, DM and Djakovac, T and Medić, N and Ivančić, I and Mlakar, M and Gašparović, B}, title = {Global warming and oligotrophication lead to increased lipid production in marine phytoplankton.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {668}, number = {}, pages = {171-183}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.372}, pmid = {30852195}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Earth temperature is rising and oligotrophication is becoming apparent even in coastal seas. In this changing environment, phytoplankton use carbon and nutrients to form important biomolecules, including lipids. However, the link between lipid production and changing environment is still unexplored. Therefore, we investigated the phytoplankton lipid production in the diatom Chaetoceros pseudocurvisetus cultures under controlled temperatures ranging from 10 to 30 °C and nutrient regimes mimicking oligotrophic and eutrophic conditions. Results were compared to plankton community's lipid production in the northern Adriatic at two stations considered as oligotrophic and mesotrophic during an annual monthly sampling. In order to gain detailed information on the investigated system, we supplemented lipid data with chlorophyll a concentrations, phytoplankton taxonomy, cell abundances and nutrient concentration along with hydrographic parameters. We found enhanced particulate lipid production at higher temperatures, and substantially higher lipid production in oligotrophic conditions. Enhanced lipid production has two opposing roles in carbon sequestration; it can act as a retainer or a sinker. Lipid remodeling, including change in ratio of phospholipids and glycolipids, is more affected by the nutrient status, than the temperature increase. Triacylglycerol accumulation was observed under the nitrogen starvation.}, }
@article {pmid30850880, year = {2019}, author = {Rahman, HMT and Hickey, GM}, title = {Assessing Institutional Responses to Climate Change Impacts in the North-Eastern Floodplains of Bangladesh.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01155-w}, pmid = {30850880}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Bangladesh encounters diverse climate change impacts at different scales, which can severely affect rural communities and livelihoods. In response, the government of Bangladesh has initiated a number of institutional interventions through development plans to better support sustainable adaptation. There have, however, been relatively few assessments of how these interventions have impacted sustainable local adaptation. Focusing on the highly climate-affected north-eastern floodplain region of Bangladesh, this paper presents the results of a literature synthesis supported by primary field data to identify how existing policy barriers can threaten institutional responses to climate change impacts, while institutional rigidity and the non-inclusiveness of bureaucratic polity work to undermine efficiency, effectiveness, and equitability-some important considerations for sustainable adaptation. Our results point toward the need for public policy to better enable broader public participation in the design, implementation, and evaluation of adaptation plans.}, }
@article {pmid30848903, year = {2019}, author = {Henry, CL and Pratson, LF}, title = {Differentiating the Effects of Climate Change-Induced Temperature and Streamflow Changes on the Vulnerability of Once-Through Thermoelectric Power Plants.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {53}, number = {7}, pages = {3969-3976}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.8b05718}, pmid = {30848903}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Thermoelectric power plants with once-through cooling systems generated 30% (∼300 GW) of U.S. electricity in 2016. Factors that reduce once-through cooling capacity and thus power output are environmental regulations, warming surface waters, and drought. The latter two may become more frequent as global climate changes. Previous research indicates that reduction in power plant capacity caused by environmental regulations can be significant while that by surface water warming is minor. Here, we address the effect of droughts on power output, which until now has remained conflated with temperature impacts. We do this using a widely used electricity generation model alongside hourly operational and meteorological data for 52 once-through plants located across the U.S. The effect of drought on plant output is examined for different water-availability and temperature scenarios, with and without regulations on plant water discharge. We find that if surface waters warm 3 °C and river discharges drop 20%, droughts would account for ≤20% of total capacity reduction depending on the plant, warming surface waters ≤2.3%, and environmental regulations up to 80%. This suggests that maintaining environmental regulations will require the continued conversion of plant cooling systems from once-through to recirculating, and mitigating climate impacts will require more stringent drought-specific watershed management.}, }
@article {pmid30847111, year = {2019}, author = {Walsh, ES and Vierling, KT and Strand, E and Bartowitz, K and Hudiburg, TW}, title = {Climate change, woodpeckers, and forests: Current trends and future modeling needs.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {2305-2319}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4876}, pmid = {30847111}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The structure and composition of forest ecosystems are expected to shift with climate-induced changes in precipitation, temperature, fire, carbon mitigation strategies, and biological disturbance. These factors are likely to have biodiversity implications. However, climate-driven forest ecosystem models used to predict changes to forest structure and composition are not coupled to models used to predict changes to biodiversity. We proposed integrating woodpecker response (biodiversity indicator) with forest ecosystem models. Woodpeckers are a good indicator species of forest ecosystem dynamics, because they are ecologically constrained by landscape-scale forest components, such as composition, structure, disturbance regimes, and management activities. In addition, they are correlated with forest avifauna community diversity. In this study, we explore integrating woodpecker and forest ecosystem climate models. We review climate-woodpecker models and compare the predicted responses to observed climate-induced changes. We identify inconsistencies between observed and predicted responses, explore the modeling causes, and identify the models pertinent to integration that address the inconsistencies. We found that predictions in the short term are not in agreement with observed trends for 7 of 15 evaluated species. Because niche constraints associated with woodpeckers are a result of complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and disturbance, we hypothesize that the lack of adequate representation of these processes in the current broad-scale climate-woodpecker models results in model-data mismatch. As a first step toward improvement, we suggest a conceptual model of climate-woodpecker-forest modeling for integration. The integration model provides climate-driven forest ecosystem modeling with a measure of biodiversity while retaining the feedback between climate and vegetation in woodpecker climate change modeling.}, }
@article {pmid30847100, year = {2019}, author = {Yi, F and Wang, Z and Baskin, CC and Baskin, JM and Ye, R and Sun, H and Zhang, Y and Ye, X and Liu, G and Yang, X and Huang, Z}, title = {Seed germination responses to seasonal temperature and drought stress are species-specific but not related to seed size in a desert steppe: Implications for effect of climate change on community structure.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {2149-2159}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4909}, pmid = {30847100}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Investigating how seed germination of multiple species in an ecosystem responds to environmental conditions is crucial for understanding the mechanisms for community structure and biodiversity maintenance. However, knowledge of seed germination response of species to environmental conditions is still scarce at the community level. We hypothesized that responses of seed germination to environmental conditions differ among species at the community level, and that germination response is not correlated with seed size. To test this hypothesis, we determined the response of seed germination of 20 common species in the Siziwang Desert Steppe, China, to seasonal temperature regimes (representing April, May, June, and July) and drought stress (0, -0.003, -0.027, -0.155, and -0.87 MPa). Seed germination percentage increased with increasing temperature regime, but Allium ramosum, Allium tenuissimum, Artemisia annua, Artemisia mongolica,Artemisia scoparia, Artemisia sieversiana, Bassia dasyphylla, Kochia prastrata, and Neopallasia pectinata germinated to >60% in the lowest temperature regime (April). Germination decreased with increasing water stress, but Allium ramosum, Artemisia annua, Artemisia scoparia, Bassia dasyphylla, Heteropappus altaicus, Kochia prastrata, Neopallasia pectinata, and Potentilla tanacetifolia germinated to near 60% at -0.87 MPa. Among these eight species, germination of six was tolerant to both temperature and water stress. Mean germination percentage in the four temperature regimes and the five water potentials was not significantly correlated with seed mass or seed area, which were highly correlated. Our results suggest that the species-specific germination responses to environmental conditions are important in structuring the desert steppe community and have implications for predicting community structure under climate change. Thus, the predicted warmer and dryer climate will favor germination of drought-tolerant species, resulting in altered proportions of germinants of different species and subsequently change in community composition of the desert steppe.}, }
@article {pmid30847064, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, Y and Clauzel, C and Li, J and Xue, Y and Zhang, Y and Wu, G and Giraudoux, P and Li, L and Li, D}, title = {Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province, China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {1680-1690}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4815}, pmid = {30847064}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species' habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least-cost model for the current period (1960-1990) and the 2050s (2041-2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least-cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km2 of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km2 and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km2 and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high-priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.}, }
@article {pmid30847059, year = {2019}, author = {Liles, MJ and Peterson, TR and Seminoff, JA and Gaos, AR and Altamirano, E and Henríquez, AV and Gadea, V and Chavarría, S and Urteaga, J and Wallace, BP and Peterson, MJ}, title = {Potential limitations of behavioral plasticity and the role of egg relocation in climate change mitigation for a thermally sensitive endangered species.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {1603-1622}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4774}, pmid = {30847059}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is widely considered a major threat to global biodiversity, such that the ability of a species to adapt will determine its likelihood of survival. Egg-burying reptiles that exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination, such as critically endangered hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), are particularly vulnerable to changes in thermal regimes because nest temperatures affect offspring sex, fitness, and survival. It is unclear whether hawksbills possess sufficient behavioral plasticity of nesting traits (i.e., redistribution of nesting range, shift in nesting phenology, changes in nest-site selection, and adjustment of nest depth) to persist within their climatic niche or whether accelerated changes in thermal conditions of nesting beaches will outpace phenotypic adaption and require human intervention. For these reasons, we estimated sex ratios and physical condition of hatchling hawksbills under natural and manipulated conditions and generated and analyzed thermal profiles of hawksbill nest environments within highly threatened mangrove ecosystems at Bahía de Jiquilisco, El Salvador, and Estero Padre Ramos, Nicaragua. Hawksbill clutches protected in situ at both sites incubated at higher temperatures, yielded lower hatching success, produced a higher percentage of female hatchlings, and produced less fit offspring than clutches relocated to hatcheries. We detected cooler sand temperatures in woody vegetation (i.e., coastal forest and small-scale plantations of fruit trees) and hatcheries than in other monitored nest environments, with higher temperatures at the deeper depth. Our findings indicate that mangrove ecosystems present a number of biophysical (e.g., insular nesting beaches and shallow water table) and human-induced (e.g., physical barriers and deforestation) constraints that, when coupled with the unique life history of hawksbills in this region, may limit behavioral compensatory responses by the species to projected temperature increases at nesting beaches. We contend that egg relocation can contribute significantly to recovery efforts in a changing climate under appropriate circumstances.}, }
@article {pmid30846753, year = {2019}, author = {Haszpra, T and Herein, M}, title = {Ensemble-based analysis of the pollutant spreading intensity induced by climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3896}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-40451-7}, pmid = {30846753}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The intensity of the atmospheric large-scale spreading can be characterized by a measure of chaotic systems, called topological entropy. A pollutant cloud stretches in an exponential manner in time, and in the atmospheric context the topological entropy corresponds to the stretching rate of its length. To explore the plethora of possible climate evolutions, we investigate here pollutant spreading in climate realizations of two climate models to learn what the typical spreading behavior is over a climate change. An overall decrease in the areal mean of the stretching rate is found to be typical in the ensembles of both climate models. This results in larger pollutant concentrations for several geographical regions implying higher environmental risk. A strong correlation is found between the time series of the ensemble mean values of the stretching rate and of the absolute value of the relative vorticity. Here we show that, based on the obtained relationship, the typical intensity of the spreading in an arbitrary climate realization can be estimated by using only the ensemble means of the relative vorticity data of a climate model.}, }
@article {pmid30843528, year = {2019}, author = {Saracci, R}, title = {[Reflections on time. From the clinic to climate change.].}, journal = {Recenti progressi in medicina}, volume = {110}, number = {2}, pages = {61-62}, doi = {10.1701/3112.30998}, pmid = {30843528}, issn = {2038-1840}, abstract = {The often heard 'time is money' formula is today generally applied to all human activities: it implies that a gain in time is a gain in money, with the consequence of introducing a generalized pressure to minimize the execution time of all and every human operation. There are however processes that are just destroyed when their execution speed becomes faster and faster: any music piece, whose time structure is essential, is a prototype of these phenomena. Two apparently remote phenomena as the doctor-patient interaction and the control of global climatic change belong for different reasons to the same category of phenomena the priority of which cannot be derived using the 'time is money' formula but requires - before any accounting calculation - considering their intrinsic value for health and medicine.}, }
@article {pmid30843297, year = {2019}, author = {Wiens, JJ and Camacho, A and Goldberg, A and Jezkova, T and Kaplan, ME and Lambert, SM and Miller, EC and Streicher, JW and Walls, RL}, title = {Climate-change, extinction, and Sky Island biogeography in a montane lizard.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/mec.15073}, pmid = {30843297}, issn = {1365-294X}, abstract = {Around the world, many species are confined to &quot;Sky Islands,&quot; with different populations in isolated patches of montane habitat. How does this pattern arise? One scenario is that montane species were widespread in lowlands when climates were cooler, and were isolated by local extinction caused by warming conditions. This scenario implies that many montane species may be highly susceptible to anthropogenic warming. Here, we test this scenario in a montane lizard (Sceloporus jarrovii) from the Madrean Sky Islands of southeastern Arizona. We combined data from field surveys, climate, population genomics, and physiology. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that this species' current distribution is explained by local extinction caused by past climate change. However, our results for this species differ from simple expectations in several ways: (1) their absence at lower elevations is related to warm winter temperatures, not hot summer temperatures; (2) they appear to exclude a low-elevation congener from higher elevations, not the converse; (3) they are apparently absent from many climatically suitable but low mountain ranges, seemingly &quot;pushed off the top&quot; by climates even warmer than those today; (4) despite the potential for dispersal among ranges during recent glacial periods (~18,000 years ago), populations in different ranges diverged ~4.5-0.5 million years ago and remained largely distinct; and (5) body temperatures are inversely related to climatic temperatures among sites. These results may have implications for many other Sky Island systems. More broadly, we suggest that Sky Island species may be relevant for predicting responses to future warming. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30842886, year = {2019}, author = {Davis, BE and Cocherell, DE and Sommer, T and Baxter, RD and Hung, TC and Todgham, AE and Fangue, NA}, title = {Sensitivities of an endemic, endangered California smelt and two non-native fishes to serial increases in temperature and salinity: implications for shifting community structure with climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coy076}, doi = {10.1093/conphys/coy076}, pmid = {30842886}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {In many aquatic systems, native fishes are in decline and the factors responsible are often elusive. In the San Francisco Estuary (SFE) in California, interactions among native and non-native species are key factors contributing to the decline in abundance of endemic, endangered Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). Climate change and drought-related stressors are further exacerbating declines. To assess how multiple environmental changes affect the physiology of native Delta Smelt and non-native Mississippi Silverside (Menidia beryllina) and Largemouth Bass (Micropterus salmoides), fishes were exposed to serial exposures of a single stressor (elevated temperature or salinity) followed by two stressors (elevated temperature and salinity) to determine how a single stressor affects the capacity to cope with the addition of a second stressor. Critical thermal maximum (CTMax; a measure of upper temperature tolerance) was determined after 0, 2, 4 and 7 days following single and multiple stressors of elevated temperature (16°C vs. 20°C) and salinity (2.4 vs. 8-12 ppt, depending on species). Under control conditions, non-native fishes had significantly higher CTMax than the native Delta Smelt. An initial temperature or salinity stressor did not negatively affect the ability of any species to tolerate a subsequent multiple stressor. While elevated salinity had little effect on CTMax, a 4°C increase in temperature increased CTMax. Bass experienced an additive effect of increased temperature and salinity on CTMax, such that CTMax further increased under multiple stressors. In addition, Bass demonstrated physiological sensitivity to multiple stressors demonstrated by changes in hematocrit and plasma osmolality, whereas the physiology of Silversides remained unaffected. Non-native Bass and Mississippi Silversides showed consistently higher thermal tolerance limits than the native Delta Smelt, supporting their abundance in warmer SFE habitats. Continued increases in SFE water temperatures predicted with climate change may further impact endangered Delta Smelt populations directly if habitat temperatures exceed thermal limits.}, }
@article {pmid30842480, year = {2019}, author = {Kubicek, A and Breckling, B and Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Reuter, H}, title = {Climate change drives trait-shifts in coral reef communities.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3721}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-38962-4}, pmid = {30842480}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {FL120100066//Department of Education and Training | Australian Research Council (ARC)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to have profound, partly unforeseeable effects on the composition of functional traits of complex ecosystems, such as coral reefs, and some ecosystem properties are at risk of disappearing. This study applies a novel spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore three critical life history traits of corals: heat tolerance, competitiveness and growth performance under various environmental settings. Building upon these findings, we test the adaptation potential required by a coral community in order to not only survive but also retain its diversity by the end of this century under different IPCC climate scenarios. Even under the most favourable IPCC scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 2.6), model results indicate that shifts in the trait space are likely and coral communities will mainly consist of small numbers of temperature-tolerant and fast-growing species. Species composition of coral communities is likely to be determined by heat tolerance, with competitiveness most likely playing a subordinate role. To sustain ~15% of current coral cover under a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century (RCP 4.5), coral systems would have to accommodate temperature increases of 0.1-0.15 °C per decade, assuming that periodic extreme thermal events occurred every 8 years. These required adaptation rates are unprecedented and unlikely, given corals' life-history characteristics.}, }
@article {pmid30842430, year = {2019}, author = {Beetge, L and Krüger, K}, title = {Drought and heat waves associated with climate change affect performance of the potato aphid Macrosiphum euphorbiae.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3645}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-37493-8}, pmid = {30842430}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {N/A//University of Pretoria (Universiteit van Pretoria)/ ; }, abstract = {The combined effect of drought and heat waves on insect-plant interactions is complex and not fully understood. Insects may indirectly benefit from water-deficit stress through increased plant nitrogen levels. Heat stress may have a direct negative effect, yet insect performance may be improved when day-time heat is followed by cooler night temperatures. We show that moderate water-deficit stress (25-30% pot capacity) and high day-night temperatures (30/20 °C) affected Macrosiphum euphorbiae on potato (Solanum tuberosum) differently than their interactions. Water stress lowered stomatal conductance, and both water and heat stress reduced leaf area. The effect of water stress on nymphal and adult survival depended on temperature. Water stress added to reduced nymphal survival at high but not current (25/15 °C) day-night temperatures. Adult survival at high temperatures was reduced only when combined with water stress. Water stress and high temperatures independently but not interactively reduced the number of daily offspring. Moderate water stress when combined with high temperatures had a negative bottom-up effect on aphid survival even though lower night temperatures aided in the recovery from direct heat stress. Our study illustrates the importance of combining multiple stressors to better understand their impact on insect-plant interactions in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30839015, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {Environmental effects and interactions of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change: 2018 assessment.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {601}, doi = {10.1039/c8pp90066c}, pmid = {30839015}, issn = {1474-9092}, }
@article {pmid30836888, year = {2019}, author = {Hamilton, CD and Vacquié-Garcia, J and Kovacs, KM and Ims, RA and Kohler, J and Lydersen, C}, title = {Contrasting changes in space use induced by climate change in two Arctic marine mammal species.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {20180834}, doi = {10.1098/rsbl.2018.0834}, pmid = {30836888}, issn = {1744-957X}, abstract = {Global warming is inducing major environmental changes in the Arctic. These changes will differentially affect species owing to differences in climate sensitivity and behavioural plasticity. Arctic endemic marine mammals are expected to be impacted significantly by ongoing changes in their key habitats owing to their long life cycles and dependence on ice. Herein, unique biotelemetry datasets for ringed seals (RS; Pusa hispida) and white whales (WW; Delphinapterus leucas) from Svalbard, Norway, spanning two decades (1995-2016) are used to investigate how these species have responded to reduced sea-ice cover and increased Atlantic water influxes. Tidal glacier fronts were traditionally important foraging areas for both species. Following a period with dramatic environmental change, RS now spend significantly more time near tidal glaciers, where Arctic prey presumably still concentrate. Conversely, WW spend significantly less time near tidal glacier fronts and display spatial patterns that suggest that they are foraging on Atlantic fishes that are new to the region. Differences in levels of dietary specialization and overall behavioural plasticity are likely reasons for similar environmental pressures affecting these species differently. Climate change adjustments through behavioural plasticity will be vital for species survival in the Arctic, given the rapidity of change and limited dispersal options.}, }
@article {pmid30835141, year = {2019}, author = {Heaney, AK and Carrión, D and Burkart, K and Lesk, C and Jack, D}, title = {Climate Change and Physical Activity: Estimated Impacts of Ambient Temperatures on Bikeshare Usage in New York City.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {127}, number = {3}, pages = {37002}, doi = {10.1289/EHP4039}, pmid = {30835141}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Physical activity is one of the best disease prevention strategies, and it is influenced by environmental factors such as temperature.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We aimed to illuminate the relation between ambient temperature and bikeshare usage and to project how climate change-induced increasing ambient temperatures may influence active transportation in New York City.<br><br>METHODS: The analysis leverages Citi Bike® bikeshare data to estimate participation in outdoor bicycling in New York City. Exposure-response functions are estimated for the relation between daily temperature and bike usage from 2013 to 2017. The estimated exposure-response relation is combined with temperature outputs from 21 climate models (run with emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to explore how climate change may influence future bike utilization.<br><br>RESULTS: Estimated daily hours and distance ridden significantly increased as temperatures increased, but then declined at temperatures above 26-28°C. Bike usage may increase by up to 3.1% by 2070 due to climate change. Future ridership increases during the winter, spring, and fall may more than offset future declines in summer ridership.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Evidence suggesting nonlinear impacts of rising temperatures on health-promoting bicycle ridership demonstrates how challenging it is to anticipate the health consequences of climate change. We project increases in bicycling by mid-century in NYC, but this trend may reverse as temperatures continue to rise further into the future. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4039.}, }
@article {pmid30833952, year = {2019}, author = {Whipple, AV and Cobb, NS and Gehring, CA and Mopper, S and Flores-Rentería, L and Whitham, TG}, title = {Long-Term Studies Reveal Differential Responses to Climate Change for Trees Under Soil- or Herbivore-Related Stress.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {132}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00132}, pmid = {30833952}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Worldwide, trees are confronting increased temperature and aridity, exacerbating susceptibility to herbivory. Long-term studies comparing patterns of plant performance through drought can help identify variation among and within populations in vulnerability to climate change and herbivory. We use long-term monitoring data to examine our overarching hypothesis that the negative impacts of poor soil and herbivore susceptibility would be compounded by severe drought. We studied pinyon pine, Pinus edulis, a widespread southwestern tree species that has suffered extensive climate-change related mortality. We analyzed data on mortality, growth, male reproduction, and herbivory collected for 14-32 years in three areas with distinct soil-types. We used standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as a climate proxy that summarizes the impacts of drought due to precipitation and temperature variation on semi-arid forests. Several key findings emerged: (1) Plant performance measurements did not support our hypothesis that trees growing in stressful, coarse-textured soils would suffer more than trees growing in finer-textured soils. Stem growth at the area with coarse, young cinder soils (area one) responded only weakly to drought, while stem growth on more developed soils with sedimentary (area two) and volcanic (area three) substrates, was strongly negatively affected by drought. Male reproduction declined less with drought at area one and more at areas two and three. Overall mortality was 30% on coarse cinder soils (area one) and averaged 55% on finer soil types (areas two and three). (2) Although moth herbivore susceptible trees were hypothesized to suffer more with drought than moth resistant trees, the opposite occurred. Annual stem growth was negatively affected by drought for moth resistant trees, but much less strongly for moth susceptible trees. (3) In contrast to our hypothesis, moths declined with drought. Overall, chronically water-stressed and herbivore-susceptible trees had smaller declines in performance relative to less-stressed trees during drought years. These long-term findings support the idea that stressed trees might be more resistant to drought since they may have adapted or acclimated to resist drought-related mortality.}, }
@article {pmid30833238, year = {2019}, author = {Lunt, PH and Fyfe, RM and Tappin, AD}, title = {Role of recent climate change on carbon sequestration in peatland systems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {667}, number = {}, pages = {348-358}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.239}, pmid = {30833238}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Carbon Cycle ; *Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; England ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Soil ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {This paper provides information on the impact of recent climate change on carbon sequestration in peatland systems in South West England. This is important because peatlands have the potential to sequester and hold large quantities of anthropogenically released CO2. This paper investigates whether there has been a reduction in the strength of carbon sinks in a valley mire and blanket bog, which occur on the limits of the biogeographical envelop for peatlands in Britain. Past rates of carbon accumulation were calculated from peat depth and the sequential analysis of peat age, bulk density and carbon content from cores taken from valley mire and blanket bog. At the valley mire site contemporary net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was calculated by measuring inputs to the peat body, via net primary productivity (NPP), of Sphagna. Losses of C from the peat body were calculated by measuring CH4, and aquatic carbon, calculated from catchment export of particulate and dissolved organic carbon. The study found similar mean rates of carbon accumulation since 1850 of 11.26 t ± 0.68 t CO2e ha-1 yr-1 (307 g C m-2 yr-1) in valley mire and 11.77 t ± 0.88 t CO2e ha-1 yr-1 (321 g C m-2 yr-1) in blanket bog. The mean present-day CO2 sequestration rate for Sphagna on valley mire was calculated to be 9.13 t ± 0.98 t CO2e ha-1 yr-1 (249 g C m-2 yr-1). Both past and contemporary rates of CO2 sequestration were found to be at the maxima of those reported for temperate peatlands. NPP was found to vary according to microform with higher rates of carbon sequestration found in lawn and hummock microforms compared with pools. Our work suggests that recent changes in the climate appear to have had limited impact on the strength of peatland carbon sinks in South West England.}, }
@article {pmid30829832, year = {2019}, author = {Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Sera, F and Gasparrini, A}, title = {A hands-on tutorial on a modeling framework for projections of climate change impacts on health.}, journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/EDE.0000000000000982}, pmid = {30829832}, issn = {1531-5487}, support = {MR/M022625/1//Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Reliable estimates of future health impacts due to climate change are needed to inform and contribute to the design of efficient adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, projecting health burdens associated to specific environmental stressors is a challenging task, due to the complex risk patterns and inherent uncertainty of future climate scenarios. These assessments involve multi-disciplinary knowledge, requiring expertise in epidemiology, statistics, and climate science, among other subjects. Here, we present a methodologic framework to estimate future health impacts under climate change scenarios based on a defined set of assumptions and advanced statistical techniques developed in time-series analysis in environmental epidemiology. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a step-by-step hands-on tutorial structured in well-defined sections that cover the main methodological steps and essential elements. Each section provides a thorough description of each step, along with a discussion on available analytical options and the rationale on the choices made in the proposed framework. The illustration is complemented with a practical example of study using real-world data and a series of R scripts included as Supplementary Digital Content, which facilitates its replication and extension on other environmental stressors, outcomes, study settings, and projection scenarios. Users should critically assess the potential modeling alternatives and modify the framework and R code to adapt them to their research on health impact projections.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial License 4.0 (CCBY-NC), where it is permissible to download, share, remix, transform, and buildup the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be used commercially without permission from the journal.}, }
@article {pmid30826366, year = {2019}, author = {Poole, JA and Barnes, CS and Demain, JG and Bernstein, JA and Padukudru, MA and Sheehan, WJ and Fogelbach, GG and Wedner, J and Codina, R and Levetin, E and Cohn, JR and Kagen, S and Portnoy, JM and Nel, AE}, title = {Impact of weather and climate change with indoor and outdoor air quality in asthmatic patients.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2019.02.018}, pmid = {30826366}, issn = {1097-6825}, abstract = {Weather and climate change are constant and ever-changing processes that affect allergy and asthma. The purpose of this report is to provide information since the last climate change review with a focus on asthmatic disease. PubMed and Internet searches for topics included climate and weather change, air pollution, particulates, greenhouse gasses, traffic, insect habitat, and mitigation in addition to references contributed by the individual authors. Changes in patterns of outdoor aeroallergens caused by increasing temperatures and amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are major factors linked to increased duration of pollen seasons, increased pollen production, and possibly increased allergenicity of pollen. Indoor air pollution threats anticipated from climate changes include microbial and mold growth secondary to flooding, resulting in displacement of persons and need for respiratory protection of exposed workers. Air pollution from indoor burning of mosquito repellants is a potential anticipatory result of an increase in habitat regions. Air pollution from fossil fuel burning and traffic-related emissions can alter respiratory defense mechanisms and work synergistically with specific allergens to enhance immunogenicity to worsen asthma in susceptible subjects. Community efforts can significantly reduce air pollution, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emission and improving air quality. The allergist's approach to weather pattern changes should be integrated and anticipatory to protect at-risk patients.}, }
@article {pmid30825817, year = {2019}, author = {Moraitis, ML and Valavanis, VD and Karakassis, I}, title = {Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution of benthic indicator species in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {667}, number = {}, pages = {16-24}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.338}, pmid = {30825817}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The potential effects of climate change on the distribution of benthic species commonly used in marine ecological quality assessment were investigated using a spatial modelling approach. In this work, the relevance of the ecological groups that macrofaunal molluscs are assigned according to their sensitivity or tolerance to environmental disturbance was examined under the scope of the RCP 8.5 severe emissions scenario. The effects of climate change were more profound on species that are indicative of a specific suite of climatic conditions regarding temperature and salinity. Significant loss of habitat suitability was observed for the tolerant species Corbula gibba and Abra prismatica whereas the sensitive species Moerella donacina was least affected. In contrast, an overall expansion of the distributional potential was observed for the sensitive species Flexopecten hyalinus as newly suitable habitats are formed. As hypothesised, the current ecological grouping that depicts the sensitivity of a benthic species to an environmental stressor is irrelevant when assessing the effects of climate change. We propose a new standpoint of using benthic species as biotic tools based on their ecological niche requirements.}, }
@article {pmid30825413, year = {2019}, author = {Coates, SJ and McCalmont, TH and Williams, ML}, title = {Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change in the Practice of Dermatology-A Call to Action.}, journal = {JAMA dermatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jamadermatol.2018.5863}, pmid = {30825413}, issn = {2168-6084}, }
@article {pmid30824774, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, C and Wang, Z and Kong, Y and Zhang, F and Yang, K and Zhang, T}, title = {Most of the Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Remains under Climate Change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3295}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-39942-4}, pmid = {30824774}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {91437217//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41661144017//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 91437217//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41471034//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41661144017//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 91437217//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41471034//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41661144017//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 91437217//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41471034//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41661144017//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Degradation of cryospheric components such as arctic sea ice and permafrost may pose a threat to the Earth's climate system. A rise of 2 °C above pre-industrial global surface temperature is considered to be a risk-level threshold. This study investigates the impacts of global temperature rises of 1.5 °C and 2 °C on the extent of the permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), based on the 17 models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that, when global surface temperature rises by 1.5 °C, the average permafrost extent projected under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios would decrease by 23.58% for RCP2.6 (2027-2036), 24.1% for RCP4.5 (2026-2035) and 25.55% for RCP8.5 (2023-2032). However, uncertainty in the results persists because of distinct discrepancies among the models. When the global surface temperature rises by 2 °C, about one-third of the permafrost would disappear; in other words, most of the NH permafrost would still remain even in the RCP8.5 (2037-2046) scenario. The results of the study highlight that the NH permafrost might be able to stably exist owing to its relatively slow degradation. This outlook gives reason for hope for future maintenance and balance of the cryosphere and climate systems.}, }
@article {pmid30823558, year = {2019}, author = {Kais, SM and Islam, MS}, title = {Perception of Climate Change in Shrimp-Farming Communities in Bangladesh: A Critical Assessment.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16040672}, pmid = {30823558}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Local contexts as well as levels of exposure play a substantial role in defining a community's perception of climate and environmental vulnerabilities. In order to assess a community's adaptation strategies, understanding of how different groups in that community comprehend climate change is crucial. Public risk perception is important as it can induce or confine political, economic, and social actions dealing with particular hazards. Climate change adaptation is a well-established policy discourse in Bangladesh that has made its people more or less aware of it. Similarly, shrimp-farming communities in southwestern Bangladesh understand environmental and climate change in their own ways. In order to understand how the shrimp-farming communities in coastal Bangladesh perceive current climate instabilities, we conducted a qualitative study in shrimp-farming villages in coastal Bangladesh where about 80% of commercial shrimp of the country is cultivated. We compared farmers' perceptions of local climate change with existing scientific knowledge and found remarkable similarities. Our assessment shows that at least two factors are critical for this outcome: coastal people's exposure to and experience of frequent climate extremes; and a radical approach to defining climate regimes in Bangladesh by various stakeholders and the media, depicting anthropogenic global warming as a certainty for the country. Thus, a convergence of scientific construct and sociocultural construct construes the level of awareness of the general public about climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30821446, year = {2019}, author = {Ren, J and Wang, X and Gong, P and Wang, C}, title = {Characterization of Tibetan Soil As a Source or Sink of Atmospheric Persistent Organic Pollutants: Seasonal Shift and Impact of Global Warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {53}, number = {7}, pages = {3589-3598}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b00698}, pmid = {30821446}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Background soils are reservoirs of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). After decades of reduced primary emissions, it is now possible that the POPs contained in these reservoirs are being remobilized because of climate warming. However, a comprehensive investigation into the remobilization of POPs from background soil on the largest and highest plateau on Earth, the Tibetan Plateau (TP), is lacking. In this study, a sampling campaign was carried out on the TP at three background sites with different land cover types (forest, meadow and desert). Field measurements of the air-soil exchange of POPs showed that previous prediction using empirical models overestimated the values of the soil-air partitioning coefficient (KSA), especially for chemicals with KOA > 9. The direction of exchange for γ-HCH, HCB, and PCB-28 overlapped with the air-soil equilibrium range, but with a tendency for volatilization. Their emission fluxes were 720, 2935, and 538 pg m-2 day-1, respectively, and were similar in extent to those observed for background Arctic soil in Norway. Nam Co and Ngari are also permafrost regions, and most chemicals at these two sites exhibited volatilization. This is the first result showing that permafrost can also emit POPs. Seasonally, we found that chemicals tended to be re-emitted from soils to the atmosphere in winter and deposited from the air to the soil in summer. This finding is opposite to most previous results, possibly because of the higher air-soil concentration gradient caused by the prevailing transport of POPs in summer. Climate warming exerts a strong influence on air-soil exchange, with an increase of 1 °C in ambient temperature likely leading to an increase of Tibetan atmospheric inventories of POPs by 60-400%.}, }
@article {pmid30821414, year = {2019}, author = {Rosa, WE and Schenk, E and Travers, JL and Nicholas, PK}, title = {Climate change and health consequences: Engaging public health nursing within the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {107-108}, doi = {10.1111/phn.12598}, pmid = {30821414}, issn = {1525-1446}, }
@article {pmid30819951, year = {2019}, author = {Plagányi, É}, title = {Climate change impacts on fisheries.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {363}, number = {6430}, pages = {930-931}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw5824}, pmid = {30819951}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; }, }
@article {pmid30816191, year = {2019}, author = {Brivio, F and Zurmühl, M and Grignolio, S and von Hardenberg, J and Apollonio, M and Ciuti, S}, title = {Forecasting the response to global warming in a heat-sensitive species.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3048}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-39450-5}, pmid = {30816191}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Avoiding hyperthermia entails considerable metabolic costs for endotherms. Such costs increase in warm conditions, when endotherms may trade food intake for cooler areas to avoid heat stress and maximize their energy balance. The need to reduce heat stress may involve the adoption of tactics affecting space use and foraging behaviour, which are important to understand and predict the effects of climate change and inform conservation. We used resource selection models to examine the behavioural response to heat stress in the Alpine ibex (Capra ibex), a cold-adapted endotherm particularly prone to overheating. Ibex avoided heat stress by selecting the space based on the maximum daily temperature rather than moving hourly to 'surf the heat wave', which minimised movement costs but prevented optimal foraging. By integrating these findings with new climate forecasts, we predict that rising temperatures will force mountain ungulates to move upward and overcrowd thermal refugia with reduced carrying capacity. Our approach helps in identifying priority areas for the conservation of mountain species.}, }
@article {pmid30813647, year = {2019}, author = {Mironova, V and Shartova, N and Beljaev, A and Varentsov, M and Grishchenko, M}, title = {Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates оn the Development of Malaria Parasite (Plasmodium vivax) in Moscow Megacity Region.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16050694}, pmid = {30813647}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {17-77-20070//Russian Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {The article presents the results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the changes of the favorability of climatic conditions for the transmission of vivax malaria in the Moscow megacity and its surroundings during the period from 1977 to 2016. Using the historical temperature records at urban and rural weather stations, we calculated the key indicators of climate favorability for malaria transmission, viz. the sum of effective temperatures, the duration of the season of effective infectiveness, and a new integral index of climate favorability. We demonstrated a dramatic increase of all three indicators, which accelerated after 1984, and a high spatial heterogeneity among them. Due to the urban heat island effect, the degree of climatic favorability is especially high in the densely urbanized areas of Moscow megacity compared with the suburban and rural areas. Climatic conditions for vivax malaria in Moscow are better now than before. The season of effective infectiveness continues in the central part of the city for 25 days longer, and the integral index of climate favorability is 85% higher in comparison to mean values over the rural surroundings. The study contains an alert regarding the risk of malaria resurgence in the Moscow region in the case of the sufficient importation of cases from abroad.}, }
@article {pmid30813633, year = {2019}, author = {Nie, T and Zhang, Z and Qi, Z and Chen, P and Sun, Z and Liu, X}, title = {Characterizing Spatiotemporal Dynamics of CH₄ Fluxes from Rice Paddies of Cold Region in Heilongjiang Province under Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16050692}, pmid = {30813633}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {51779046//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2016YFC0400108//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {Paddy fields have become a major global anthropogenic CH₄ emission source, and climate change affects CH₄ emissions from paddy ecosystems by changing crop growth and the soil environment. It has been recognized that Heilongjiang Province has become an important source of CH₄ emission due to its dramatically increased rice planting area, while less attention has been paid to characterize the effects of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of CH₄ fluxes. In this study, we used the calibrated and validated Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model and DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model to simulate historical and future CH₄ fluxes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of four global climate models (GCMs) in Heilongjiang Province. During 1960⁻2015, the average CH₄ fluxes and climatic tendencies were 145.56 kg C/ha and 11.88 kg C/ha/(10a), respectively. Spatially, the CH₄ fluxes showed a decreasing trend from west to east, and the climatic tendencies in the northern and western parts were higher. During 2021⁻2080, the annual average CH₄ fluxes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were predicted to be 213.46 kg C/ha and 252.19 kg C/ha, respectively, and their spatial distributions were similar to the historical distribution. The average climatic tendencies were 13.40 kg C/ha/(10a) and 29.86 kg C/ha/(10a), respectively, which decreased from west to east. The simulation scenario analysis showed that atmospheric CO₂ concentration and temperature affected CH₄ fluxes by changing soil organic carbon (SOC) content and plant biomass. This study indicated that a paddy ecosystem in a cold region is an important part of China's greenhouse gas emission inventory in future scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30811858, year = {2019}, author = {Ylönen, H and Haapakoski, M and Sievert, T and Sundell, J}, title = {Voles and weasels in the boreal Fennoscandian small mammal community: What happens if the least weasel disappears due to climate change?.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12388}, pmid = {30811858}, issn = {1749-4877}, abstract = {Climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats for populations and challenge for individual behavior, interactions, and survival. Predator-prey interactions are modified by climate processes. In the northern latitudes strong seasonality is changing and the main predicted feature is shortening and instability of winter. Vole populations in the boreal Fennoscandia exhibit multiannual cycles. High amplitude peak numbers of voles and dramatic population lows alternate in 3-5 years cycles shortening from North to South. One key factor, or driver, promoting the population crash and causing extreme extended lows, is suggested to be predation by the least weasel. We review the arms race between prey voles and weasels along the multiannual density fluctuation, affected by the climate change, and especially the change in duration and stability of snow cover. Snow provides for ground-dwelling small mammals thermoregulation, shelter for nest sites, and hide from most predators. Predicted increase in instability of winter forms a major challenge for species with coat color change between brown summer camouflage and white winter coat. One of these is the least weasel, Mustela nivalis nivalis. Increased vulnerability of wrong-colored weasels to predation affect vole populations and may have dramatic effects on vole dynamics. It may have cascading effects to other small rodent - predator interactions and even to plant - animal interactions and forest dynamics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30810563, year = {2019}, author = {Andrady, AL and Pandey, KK and Heikkilä, AM}, title = {Interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on material damage.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {804-825}, doi = {10.1039/c8pp90065e}, pmid = {30810563}, issn = {1474-9092}, abstract = {Solar UV radiation adversely affects the properties of organic materials used in construction, such as plastics and wood. The outdoor service lifetimes of these materials are influenced by their rates of degradation under solar UV radiation as well as by other climate factors such as temperature, moisture, and atmospheric pollutants. While recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer is expected, local increases in UV radiation are still likely to occur, especially in the tropics, but also elsewhere because of climate change effects. Such increases, when taken together with an increased ambient temperature due to climate change, can significantly shorten the service lifetimes of organic building materials. Several proven technologies, including the use of UV stabilisers, surface treatments or coatings have been developed over the years to mitigate these adverse effects. While these technologies should be able to compensate for any realistic future UV radiation and climate change scenarios, they will also add significantly to the lifetime cost of material in relevant products. Shorter outdoor lifetime of the plastic components in photovoltaic (PV) modules is a serious concern in the solar energy industry. To ensure module durability over the full service-lifetime (of about ∼20 years) of the light-harvesting PV components, better stabilisation technologies are being investigated. The present trend towards more environmentally sustainable materials in building, and environmental impact of additives such as stabilisers, need to be considered in addition to their engineering performance. This may require the phasing out of some conventional additives used in plastics as well as substituting wood or other materials in place of plastics in buildings. Depending on the relative costs of mitigation, substituting more UV-stable materials for conventional ones in outdoor products may also be a viable option with some categories of products. Neither the global cost of mitigation of the effects of climate change on materials nor the long-term sustainability of the technologies available for the purpose, have been estimated. Plastic waste and litter exposed outdoors to solar UV radiation over extended periods undergo cracking and fragmentation into small pieces (of micro- and nano-scale size). Release of these fragments into the environment, particularly in the aquatic environment, poses a potential threat to marine biota. Already several hundred of species are known to ingest these fragments that can potentially accumulate additives and pollutants from water. This is a potential threat to humans because 25% of fish marketed for human consumption have been reported to contain microplastics in their digestive systems. The focus of this assessment is on recent advances in understanding the mechanisms of UV-radiation-induced degradation in materials and in assessing emerging technologies for their stabilisation against outdoor UV-degradation. A better understanding of the mechanisms of degradation will allow for innovative stabilisation approaches to be developed. Also assessed is information on the sustainability of the available and emerging UV stabilisation technologies.}, }
@article {pmid30810561, year = {2019}, author = {Williamson, CE and Neale, PJ and Hylander, S and Rose, KC and Figueroa, FL and Robinson, SA and Häder, DP and Wängberg, SÅ and Worrest, RC}, title = {The interactive effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change on aquatic ecosystems.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {717-746}, doi = {10.1039/c8pp90062k}, pmid = {30810561}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; Aquaculture ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology/radiation effects ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; Fishes/physiology ; Fresh Water/analysis ; Ice Cover/chemistry ; Oceans and Seas ; *Ozone Depletion ; Photosynthesis ; Stratospheric Ozone/analysis ; *Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; Zooplankton/physiology ; }, abstract = {This assessment summarises the current state of knowledge on the interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on aquatic ecosystems, focusing on how these affect exposures to UV radiation in both inland and oceanic waters. The ways in which stratospheric ozone depletion is directly altering climate in the southern hemisphere and the consequent extensive effects on aquatic ecosystems are also addressed. The primary objective is to synthesise novel findings over the past four years in the context of the existing understanding of ecosystem response to UV radiation and the interactive effects of climate change. If it were not for the Montreal Protocol, stratospheric ozone depletion would have led to high levels of exposure to solar UV radiation with much stronger negative effects on all trophic levels in aquatic ecosystems than currently experienced in both inland and oceanic waters. This &quot;world avoided&quot; scenario that has curtailed ozone depletion, means that climate change and other environmental variables will play the primary role in regulating the exposure of aquatic organisms to solar UV radiation. Reductions in the thickness and duration of snow and ice cover are increasing the levels of exposure of aquatic organisms to UV radiation. Climate change was also expected to increase exposure by causing shallow mixed layers, but new data show deepening in some regions and shoaling in others. In contrast, climate-change related increases in heavy precipitation and melting of glaciers and permafrost are increasing the concentration and colour of UV-absorbing dissolved organic matter (DOM) and particulates. This is leading to the &quot;browning&quot; of many inland and coastal waters, with consequent loss of the valuable ecosystem service in which solar UV radiation disinfects surface waters of parasites and pathogens. Many organisms can reduce damage due to exposure to UV radiation through behavioural avoidance, photoprotection, and photoenzymatic repair, but meta-analyses continue to confirm negative effects of UV radiation across all trophic levels. Modeling studies estimating photoinhibition of primary production in parts of the Pacific Ocean have demonstrated that the UV radiation component of sunlight leads to a 20% decrease in estimates of primary productivity. Exposure to UV radiation can also lead to positive effects on some organisms by damaging less UV-tolerant predators, competitors, and pathogens. UV radiation also contributes to the formation of microplastic pollutants and interacts with artificial sunscreens and other pollutants with adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. Exposure to UV-B radiation can decrease the toxicity of some pollutants such as methyl mercury (due to its role in demethylation) but increase the toxicity of other pollutants such as some pesticides and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Feeding on microplastics by zooplankton can lead to bioaccumulation in fish. Microplastics are found in up to 20% of fish marketed for human consumption, potentially threatening food security. Depletion of stratospheric ozone has altered climate in the southern hemisphere in ways that have increased oceanic productivity and consequently the growth, survival and reproduction of many sea birds and mammals. In contrast, warmer sea surface temperatures related to these climate shifts are also correlated with declines in both kelp beds in Tasmania and corals in Brazil. This assessment demonstrates that knowledge of the interactive effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change factors on aquatic ecosystems has advanced considerably over the past four years and confirms the importance of considering synergies between environmental factors.}, }
@article {pmid30810560, year = {2019}, author = {Bornman, JF and Barnes, PW and Robson, TM and Robinson, SA and Jansen, MAK and Ballaré, CL and Flint, SD}, title = {Linkages between stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate change and their implications for terrestrial ecosystems.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {681-716}, doi = {10.1039/c8pp90061b}, pmid = {30810560}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollutants/analysis ; Fresh Water/analysis ; Global Warming ; Harmful Algal Bloom/radiation effects ; Light ; Models, Chemical ; Natural Resources ; Photolysis/radiation effects ; Seawater/analysis ; Stratospheric Ozone/*analysis ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {Exposure of plants and animals to ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B; 280-315 nm) is modified by stratospheric ozone dynamics and climate change. Even though stabilisation and projected recovery of stratospheric ozone is expected to curtail future increases in UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface, on-going changes in climate are increasingly exposing plants and animals to novel combinations of UV-B radiation and other climate change factors (e.g., ultraviolet-A and visible radiation, water availability, temperature and elevated carbon dioxide). Climate change is also shifting vegetation cover, geographic ranges of species, and seasonal timing of development, which further modifies exposure to UV-B radiation. Since our last assessment, there has been increased understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which plants perceive UV-B radiation, eliciting changes in growth, development and tolerances of abiotic and biotic factors. However, major questions remain on how UV-B radiation is interacting with other climate change factors to modify the production and quality of crops, as well as important ecosystem processes such as plant and animal competition, pest-pathogen interactions, and the decomposition of dead plant matter (litter). In addition, stratospheric ozone depletion is directly contributing to climate change in the southern hemisphere, such that terrestrial ecosystems in this region are being exposed to altered patterns of precipitation, temperature and fire regimes as well as UV-B radiation. These ozone-driven changes in climate have been implicated in both increases and reductions in the growth, survival and reproduction of plants and animals in Antarctica, South America and New Zealand. In this assessment, we summarise advances in our knowledge of these and other linkages and effects, and identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the ecological consequences of these environmental changes on terrestrial ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30810472, year = {2019}, author = {Meza-Palacios, R and Aguilar-Lasserre, AA and Morales-Mendoza, LF and Pérez-Gallardo, JR and Rico-Contreras, JO and Avarado-Lassman, A}, title = {Life cycle assessment of cane sugar production: The environmental contribution to human health, climate change, ecosystem quality and resources in México.}, journal = {Journal of environmental science and health. Part A, Toxic/hazardous substances &amp; environmental engineering}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1080/10934529.2019.1579537}, pmid = {30810472}, issn = {1532-4117}, abstract = {The cane sugar industry in Mexico depends heavily on the supply of energy, fossil fuels and material resources for its proper operation. The overuse of these resources plus the technical and technological deficiency causes severe environmental consequences. This scientific work aims to analyze the environmental damage attributable to cane sugar production following the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. System boundaries include sugarcane growing and harvesting, sugarcane transportation, sugar milling and electricity cogeneration from bagasse. The associated emissions were acquired from the SimaPro-Ecoinvent database, the Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels (RSB) and the Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon Research Station (ART). The life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) was carried out by SimaPro 8.3.0 software and the characterization method used was IMPACT 2002+. The results show that sugarcane growing and harvesting stage provides the most harmful environmental impacts (52%) followed by electricity cogeneration (25.7%), sugarcane transportation (12.1%) and finally, sugar milling (10.2%). Regarding the environmental contributions at the endpoint categories, the highest percentage of impacts is found in the Human health category (53%), followed by Climate change (21%), Ecosystem quality (16%) and Resources (10%). The LCA in cane sugar production can support the decision-making process to deal with this environmental problem.}, }
@article {pmid30809708, year = {2019}, author = {Prokosch, J and Bernitz, Z and Bernitz, H and Erni, B and Altwegg, R}, title = {Are animals shrinking due to climate change? Temperature-mediated selection on body mass in mountain wagtails.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {189}, number = {3}, pages = {841-849}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-019-04368-2}, pmid = {30809708}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {85802//National Research Foundation of South Africa (NRF)/ ; 114696//National Research Foundation of South Africa (NRF)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change appears to affect body size of animals whose optimal size in part depends on temperature. However, attribution of observed body size changes to climate change requires an understanding of the selective pressures acting on body size under different temperatures. We examined the link between temperature and body mass in a population of mountain wagtails (Motacilla clara) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, between 1976 and 1999, where temperature increased by 0.18 [Formula: see text]C. The wagtails became lighter by 0.035 g per year. Partitioning this trend, we found that only a small part of the effect (0.009 g/year) was due to individuals losing weight and a large part (0.027 g/year) was due to lighter individuals replacing heavier ones. Only the latter component was statistically significant. Apparently, the wagtails were reacting to selection for reduced weight. Examining survival, we found that selection was temperature-mediated, i.e., lighter individuals survived better under high temperatures, whereas heavier individuals survived better under low temperatures. Our results thus support the hypothesis that temperature drove the decline in body mass in this wagtail population and provides one of the first demonstrations of the selective forces underlying such trends.}, }
@article {pmid30809384, year = {2019}, author = {Kim, Y and Newman, G}, title = {Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston.}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/su11041048}, pmid = {30809384}, issn = {2071-1050}, support = {P42 ES027704/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Rising sea levels and coastal population growth will increase flood risk of more people and assets if land use changes are not planned adequately. This research examines the efficacy of flood protection systems and land use planning by comparing Amsterdam in the Netherlands (renown for resilience planning methods), with the city of Houston, Texas in the US (seeking ways of increasing resilience due to extreme recent flooding). It assesses flood risk of future urban growth in lieu of sea level rise using the Land Transformation Model, a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) land use prediction tool. Findings show that Houston has currently developed much more urban area within high-risk flood-prone zones compared to Amsterdam. When comparing predicted urban areas under risk, flood-prone future urban areas in Amsterdam are also relatively smaller than Houston. Finally, the increased floodplain when accounting for sea level rise will impact existing and future urban areas in Houston, but do not increase risk significantly in Amsterdam. The results suggest that the protective infrastructure used in the Netherlands has protected its future urban growth from sea level rise more adequately than has Houston.}, }
@article {pmid30809166, year = {2019}, author = {Xiang, P and Zhang, H and Geng, L and Zhou, K and Wu, Y}, title = {Individualist-Collectivist Differences in Climate Change Inaction: The Role of Perceived Intractability.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {187}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00187}, pmid = {30809166}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {The willingness to take action against climate change may be shaped by cultural orientations. The present study investigated individualist-collectivist differences in climate change inaction as well as the mediating role of perceived intractability. In Study 1, a survey of 182 undergraduates showed that greater perceived intractability of climate change was significantly related to a lower frequency of climate-friendly actions in the preceding 6 months. In Study 2, participants who were exposed to information concerning the intractability of climate change (experimental group, n = 98) reported a significantly greater perceived intractability of climate change and lower intention to assume a low-carbon lifestyle than those presented with neutral information (control group, n = 83). Based on Studies 1 and 2, participants with collectivist or individualist orientations were recruited from a pool of Chinese undergraduate students in Study 3. We found that participants with a more individualist orientation (n = 62) are more subject to perceived intractability, and less likely to take climate-friendly action than those with a more collectivist orientation (n = 94), and individualist/collectivist status affects climate change inaction through perceived intractability as mediator. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the promotion of public engagement with climate change by mitigating perceived intractability.}, }
@article {pmid30808990, year = {2019}, author = {Hurteau, MD and Liang, S and Westerling, AL and Wiedinmyer, C}, title = {Vegetation-fire feedback reduces projected area burned under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2838}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-39284-1}, pmid = {30808990}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {1102670//United States Department of Agriculture | National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)/ ; 1102670//United States Department of Agriculture | National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)/ ; 1102670//United States Department of Agriculture | National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)/ ; 1102670//United States Department of Agriculture | National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate influences vegetation directly and through climate-mediated disturbance processes, such as wildfire. Temperature and area burned are positively associated, conditional on availability of vegetation to burn. Fire is a self-limiting process that is influenced by productivity. Yet, many fire projections assume sufficient vegetation to support fire, with substantial implications for carbon (C) dynamics and emissions. We simulated forest dynamics under projected climate and wildfire for the Sierra Nevada, accounting for climate effects on fuel flammability (static) and climate and prior fire effects on fuel availability and flammability (dynamic). We show that compared to climate effects on flammability alone, accounting for the interaction of prior fires and climate on fuel availability and flammability moderates the projected increase in area burned by 14.3%. This reduces predicted increases in area-weighted median cumulative emissions by 38.3 Tg carbon dioxide (CO2) and 0.6 Tg particulate matter (PM1), or 12.9% and 11.5%, respectively. Our results demonstrate that after correcting for potential over-estimates of the effects of climate-driven increases in area burned, California is likely to continue facing significant wildfire and air quality challenges with on-going climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30807685, year = {2019}, author = {Tulloch, VJD and Plagányi, ÉE and Brown, C and Richardson, AJ and Matear, R}, title = {Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14573}, pmid = {30807685}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation/ ; DE160101207//Australian Research Council/ ; //Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, Australian Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled &quot;Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments&quot; (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice-associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.}, }
@article {pmid30805153, year = {2019}, author = {Furness, EN and Robinson, RA}, title = {Long-term declines in winter body mass of tits throughout Britain and Ireland correlate with climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {1202-1210}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4812}, pmid = {30805153}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The optimum body mass of passerine birds typically represents a trade-off between starvation risk, which promotes fat gain, and predation pressure, which promotes fat loss to maintain maneuvrability. Changes in ecological factors that affect either of these variables will therefore change the optimum body masses of populations of passerine birds. This study sought to identify and quantify the effects of changing temperatures and predation pressures on the body masses and wing lengths of populations of passerine birds throughout Britain and Ireland over the last 50 years. We analyzed over 900,000 individual measurements of body mass and wing length of blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus, coal tits Periparus ater, and great tits Parus major collected by licenced bird ringers throughout Britain and Ireland from 1965 to 2017 and correlated these with publicly available temperature data and published, UK-wide data on the abundance of a key predator, the sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus. We found highly significant, long-term, UK-wide decreases in winter body masses of adults and juveniles of all three species. We also found highly significant negative correlations between winter body mass and winter temperature, and between winter body mass and sparrowhawk abundance. Independent of these effects, body mass further correlated negatively with calendar year, suggesting that less well understood dynamic factors, such as supplementary feeding levels, may play a major role in determining population optimum body masses. Wing lengths of these birds also decreased, suggesting a hitherto unobserved large-scale evolutionary adjustment of wing loading to the lower body mass. These findings provide crucial evidence of the ways in which species are adapting to climate change and other anthropogenic factors throughout Britain and Ireland. Such processes are likely to have widespread implications as the equilibria controlling evolutionary optima in species worldwide are upset by rapid, anthropogenic ecological changes.}, }
@article {pmid30805145, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, DB and Wang, XY and Wu, Y and Lin, HL}, title = {Grazing buffers the effect of climate change on the species diversity of seedlings in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {1119-1126}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4799}, pmid = {30805145}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change predominated by warming over the past decades has affected plant biodiversity, distribution, and ecosystem functioning in alpine grasslands. Yet, little is known about the interactive effect of climate change and grazing on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Here, we conducted a vegetation translocation experiment (ten soil-vegetation blocks were translocated from high-altitudinal site 3,245 m to low-altitudinal site 3,045 m) combined with grazing treatment in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that (a) translocation induced effect of climate change from harsh, high-altitudinal site to benign, low-altitudinal site significantly promoted species richness, and density of asexual and sexual seedling, with an increase in the proportion of asexual recruitment to sexual recruitment; (b) grazing decreased the proportion of asexual seedling to sexual recruitment within community, led to a shift in the dominant plant functional groups from graminoids and legumes to forbs; and (c) grazing partly offset the increased species richness of seedling, but not seedling density, induced by climate change. These findings suggest that moderate grazing may buffer the effect of climate change on the plant community composition, and thus, functional role in alpine meadows. Further understanding the influence of climate change on grassland ecosystems needs to consider the non-additive effect of grazing and climate change to sustainability of grassland services.}, }
@article {pmid30804855, year = {2019}, author = {Bergquist, M and Nilsson, A and Schultz, PW}, title = {Experiencing a Severe Weather Event Increases Concern About Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {220}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00220}, pmid = {30804855}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate change is primarily driven by human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and may therefore be mitigated by changes to human behavior (Clayton et al., 2015; IPCC, 2018). Despite efforts to raise awareness and concern about climate change, GHG emissions continue to rise (IPCC, 2018). Climate change seems to be at odds with the immediate, present threats to which humans are adapted to cope (Gifford et al., 2009; Schultz, 2014; van Vugt et al., 2014). In contrast to immediate dangers, climate change is typically abstract, large scale, slow and often unrelated to the welfare of our daily lives (e.g., Ornstein and Ehrlich, 1989; Gifford, 2011). But there are moments when the consequences of climate change are readily apparent, such as extreme weather events. In the current paper, we examine the impact of personal experience with an extreme weather event, and the impact of this experience on beliefs about climate change, and intentions to take actions that can help prepare for and mitigate the consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30804179, year = {2019}, author = {Moore, FC and Obradovich, N and Lehner, F and Baylis, P}, title = {Rapidly declining remarkability of temperature anomalies may obscure public perception of climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {11}, pages = {4905-4910}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1816541116}, pmid = {30804179}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {The changing global climate is producing increasingly unusual weather relative to preindustrial conditions. In an absolute sense, these changing conditions constitute direct evidence of anthropogenic climate change. However, human evaluation of weather as either normal or abnormal will also be influenced by a range of factors including expectations, memory limitations, and cognitive biases. Here we show that experience of weather in recent years-rather than longer historical periods-determines the climatic baseline against which current weather is evaluated, potentially obscuring public recognition of anthropogenic climate change. We employ variation in decadal trends in temperature at weekly and county resolution over the continental United States, combined with discussion of the weather drawn from over 2 billion social media posts. These data indicate that the remarkability of particular temperatures changes rapidly with repeated exposure. Using sentiment analysis tools, we provide evidence for a &quot;boiling frog&quot; effect: The declining noteworthiness of historically extreme temperatures is not accompanied by a decline in the negative sentiment that they induce, indicating that social normalization of extreme conditions rather than adaptation is driving these results. Using climate model projections we show that, despite large increases in absolute temperature, anomalies relative to our empirically estimated shifting baseline are small and not clearly distinguishable from zero throughout the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid30798364, year = {2019}, author = {Takakura, J and Fujimori, S and Takahashi, K and Hijioka, Y and Honda, Y}, title = {Site-specific hourly resolution wet bulb globe temperature reconstruction from gridded daily resolution climate variables for planning climate change adaptation measures.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-019-01692-3}, pmid = {30798364}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14)//Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan/ ; }, abstract = {Changes in the environmental heat stress need to be properly evaluated to manage the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly in the context of climate change. The wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a useful index for evaluating heat stress and anticipating conditions related to heat-related illness in the present climate, but projecting the WBGT with a sufficiently high temporal and spatial resolution remains challenging for future climate conditions. In this study, we developed a methodological framework for estimating the site-specific hourly resolution WBGT based on the output of general circulation models using only simple calculations. The method was applied to six sites in Japan and its performance was evaluated. The proposed method could reproduce the site-specific hourly resolution WBGT with a high accuracy. Based on the developed framework, we constructed future (2090s) projections under two different greenhouse gas emission pathways. These projections showed a consistent rise in the WBGT and thus the capacity to perform physically demanding activities is expected to decrease. To demonstrate the usefulness of the projected WBGT in planning adaptation measures, we identified the optimal working schedules which would minimize outdoor workers' exposure to heat at a specific site. The results show that a substantial shift in the working time is required in the future if outdoor workers are to compensate the effect of increased heat exposure only by changing their working hours. This methodological framework and the projections will provide local practitioners with useful information to manage the increased risk of heat stress under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30797982, year = {2019}, author = {De Marchi, L and Neto, V and Pretti, C and Chiellini, F and Morelli, A and Soares, AMVM and Figueira, E and Freitas, R}, title = {The influence of Climate Change on the fate and behavior of different carbon nanotubes materials and implication to estuarine invertebrates.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Toxicology &amp; pharmacology : CBP}, volume = {219}, number = {}, pages = {103-115}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpc.2019.02.008}, pmid = {30797982}, issn = {1532-0456}, abstract = {The widespread use of Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) has been increasing exponentially, leading to a significant potential release into the environment. Nevertheless, the toxic effects of CNTs in natural aquatic systems are related to their ability to interact with abiotic compounds. Considering that salinity variations are one of the main challenges in the environment and thus may influence the behavior and toxicity of CNTs, a laboratory experiment was performed exposing the tube-building polychaete Diopatra neapolitana (Delle Chiaje 1841) for 28 days to pristine multi-walled carbon nanotube (MWCNTs) and carboxylated MWCNTs, maintained at control salinity 28 and low salinity 21. An innovative approach based on thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was adopted for the first time to assess the presence of MWCNTs aggregates in the organisms. Both CNTs generated toxic impacts in terms of regenerative capacity, energy reserves and metabolic capacity as well as oxidative and neuro status, however greater toxic impacts were observed in polychaetes exposed to carboxylated MWCNTs. Moreover, both CNTs maintained under control salinity (28) generated higher toxic impacts in the polychaetes compared to individuals maintained under low salinity (21), indicating that exposed polychaetes tend to be more sensitive to the alteration induced by salinity variations on the chemical behavior of both MWCNTs in comparison to salt stress.}, }
@article {pmid30796848, year = {2019}, author = {Hales, S}, title = {Climate change, extreme rainfall events, drinking water and enteric disease.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1515/reveh-2019-2001}, pmid = {30796848}, issn = {2191-0308}, }
@article {pmid30796465, year = {2019}, author = {Rahmasary, AN and Robert, S and Chang, IS and Jing, W and Park, J and Bluemling, B and Koop, S and van Leeuwen, K}, title = {Overcoming the Challenges of Water, Waste and Climate Change in Asian Cities.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01137-y}, pmid = {30796465}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {687809//Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; }, abstract = {Unprecedented challenges in urban management of water, waste and climate change-amplified by urbanisation and economic growth-are growing in Asia. In this circumstance, cities need to be aware of threats and opportunities to improve their capacity in addressing these challenges. This paper identifies priorities, barriers and enablers of these capacities. Through the City Blueprint® Approach-an integrated baseline assessment of the urban water cycle-11 Asian cities are assessed. Three cities are selected for an in-depth governance capacity analysis of their challenges with a focus on floods. Solid waste collection and treatment and access to improved drinking water and sanitation can be considered priorities, especially in cities with considerable slum populations. These people are also disproportionately affected by the impacts of climate-related hazards. The high variation of water management performance among Asian cities shows high potential for city-to-city learning by sharing best practices in water technology and governance. Combining interventions, i.e., by exploring co-benefits with other sectors (e.g., transport and energy) will increase efficiency, improve resilience, and lower the cost. Although governance capacities varied among cities, management of available information, monitoring and evaluation showed to be reoccurring points for improvement. Cities are also expected to increase implementation capacities using better policy, stricter compliance and preparedness next to promoting community involvement. Consequently, the city transformation process can be more concrete, efficient and inclusive.}, }
@article {pmid30796067, year = {2019}, author = {Jacobs, JR}, title = {Pluralistic ignorance and social action on climate change.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.15252/embr.201847426}, pmid = {30796067}, issn = {1469-3178}, }
@article {pmid30795849, year = {2019}, author = {Ontoria, Y and Gonzalez-Guedes, E and Sanmartí, N and Bernardeau-Esteller, J and Ruiz, JM and Romero, J and Pérez, M}, title = {Interactive effects of global warming and eutrophication on a fast-growing Mediterranean seagrass.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {145}, number = {}, pages = {27-38}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.02.002}, pmid = {30795849}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Coastal ecosystems, such as seagrasses, are subjected to local (e.g. eutrophication) and global (e.g. warming) stressors. While the separate effects of warming and eutrophication on seagrasses are relatively well known, their joint effects remain largely unstudied. In order to fill this gap, and using Cymodocea nodosa as a model species, we assessed the joint effects of warming (three temperatures, 20 °C, 30 °C and 35 °C) with two potential outcomes of eutrophication: (i) increase in nutrients concentration in the water column (30 and 300 μM), and (ii) organic enrichment in the sediment). Our results confirm that temperature in isolation clearly affects plant performance; while plants exposed to 30 °C performed better than control plants, plants exposed to 35 °C showed clear symptoms of deterioration (e.g. decline of photosynthetic capacity, increase of incidence of necrotic tissue). Plants were unaffected by high ammonium concentrations; however, organic enrichment of sediment had deleterious effects on plant function (photosynthesis, growth, demographic balance). Interestingly, these negative effects were exacerbated by increased temperature. Our findings indicate that in addition to the possibility of the persistence of C. nodosa being directly jeopardized by temperature increase, the joint effects of warming and eutrophication may further curtail its survival. This should be taken into consideration in both predictions of climate change consequences and in local planning.}, }
@article {pmid30792357, year = {2019}, author = {Jaffe, Y and Bar-Oz, G and Ellenblum, R}, title = {Improving integration in societal consequences to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {11}, pages = {4755-4756}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1901538116}, pmid = {30792357}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid30790756, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, X and Dong, Q and Costa, V and Wang, X}, title = {A hierarchical Bayesian model for decomposing the impacts of human activities and climate change on water resources in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {665}, number = {}, pages = {836-847}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.189}, pmid = {30790756}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Human activities and climate change are two key factors influencing the variation of the total amount of available surface and groundwater, hereafter termed water resources. Quantitatively separating their impacts remains a challenge. To this end, we used time-varying Budyko-type equations and a hierarchical Bayesian model in this paper to separate their impacts in 31 provincial-level divisions of China. The time-varying Budyko-type equations treat the Budyko equation parameter w as a variable, which depends on human activities (represented by per capita gross regional production) and climate change (represented by temperature and precipitation). The hierarchical model quantifies the uncertainty of parameters and the interrelation between covariates across regions in China. The results show that the time-varying Budyko-type equation can improve the fitting capability for water resources in China. The hierarchical Bayesian model, which considered spatial dependence, reduced the uncertainty of the parameters compared to spatially independent counterparts. For most regions of China, human activities reduce water resources while climate change increases them. Southeastern China is the most influenced area, and its water resources decreased approximately 50 mm because of human activities. This study can provide a basis for water resource management under climate change and human activity constraints in China.}, }
@article {pmid30788142, year = {2019}, author = {Bontrager, M and Angert, AL}, title = {Gene flow improves fitness at a range edge under climate change.}, journal = {Evolution letters}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {55-68}, doi = {10.1002/evl3.91}, pmid = {30788142}, issn = {2056-3744}, abstract = {Populations at the margins of a species' geographic range are often thought to be poorly adapted to their environment. According to theoretical predictions, gene flow can inhibit these range edge populations if it disrupts adaptation to local conditions. Alternatively, if range edge populations are small or isolated, gene flow can provide beneficial genetic variation and may facilitate adaptation to environmental change. We tested these competing predictions in the annual wildflower Clarkia pulchella using greenhouse crosses to simulate gene flow from sources across the geographic range into two populations at the northern range margin. We planted these between-population hybrids in common gardens at the range edge and evaluated how genetic differentiation and climatic differences between edge populations and gene flow sources affected lifetime fitness. During an anomalously warm study year, gene flow from populations occupying historically warm sites improved fitness at the range edge and plants with one or both parents from warm populations performed best. The effects of the temperature provenance of gene flow sources were most apparent at early life history stages, but precipitation provenance also affected reproduction. We also found benefits of gene flow that were independent of climate: after climate was controlled for, plants with parents from different populations performed better at later lifestages than those with parents from the same population, indicating that gene flow may improve fitness via relieving homozygosity. Further supporting this result, we found that increasing genetic differentiation of parental populations had positive effects on fitness of hybrid seeds. Gene flow from warmer populations, when it occurs, is likely to contribute adaptive genetic variation to populations at the northern range edge as the climate warms. On heterogeneous landscapes, climate of origin may be a better predictor of gene flow effects than geographic proximity.}, }
@article {pmid30786781, year = {2019}, author = {Crews, DE and Kawa, NC and Cohen, JH and Ulmer, GL and Edes, AN}, title = {Climate change, uncertainty and allostatic load.}, journal = {Annals of human biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, doi = {10.1080/03014460.2019.1584243}, pmid = {30786781}, issn = {1464-5033}, abstract = {CONTEXT: Humans constantly respond to environmental stressors challenging their somatic stability. Allostasis, an evolved neuroendocrine/physiological stressor response system, is our main pathway for doing so. Effective allostasis returns somatic systems to their current optima; over a lifetime of stressor responses, related systems fail, effectiveness declines, and physiological dysregulation (i.e. allostatic load) increases. Global Climate Change (GCC) multiplies environmental stressors on human populations and is likely to increase allostatic load.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: As a population-level stressor, GCC increases risks for multiple stressors, including sociocultural instability and food and water insecurity, while also motivating migration. We predict GCC increases risk for elevated allostatic load. Here, we review pathways by which GCC increases climatic and social stressors contributing to greater stress and allostatic load.<br><br>METHODS: Based upon published sources and primary ethnographic case studies, this review examines how GCC, by multiplying climate-related stressors, likely increases social instability, food and water insecurity, and migration. Thereby, it is proposed that GCC contributes to allostatic load.<br><br>RESULTS: GCC multiplies stressors on local populations. Those experiencing social insecurity related to GCC during growth and development are expected to show the largest influences on their lifetime allostatic load. Similarly, as GCC increases food and water insecurity, it likely will increase allostatic load in those affected and is likely to propel migrants to seek improved living circumstances. These stressors may be continued among their descendants via historical trauma or epigenetic responses.<br><br>CONCLUSION: GCC accentuates effects of environmental and sociocultural stressors on human populations. Those exposed to GCC are likely to show lifelong elevated allostatic load.}, }
@article {pmid30783293, year = {2019}, author = {Muller, M}, title = {Hydropower dams can help mitigate the global warming impact of wetlands.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {566}, number = {7744}, pages = {315-317}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00616-w}, pmid = {30783293}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30780055, year = {2019}, author = {Hasan, MK and Kumar, L}, title = {Comparison between meteorological data and farmer perceptions of climate change and vulnerability in relation to adaptation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {237}, number = {}, pages = {54-62}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.02.028}, pmid = {30780055}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {How farmers perceive climate change has an influence on how they adapt to climate change. Climate change perception and vulnerability were assessed based on the household survey information collected from randomly selected 118 farmers of Kalapara subdistrict in Bangladesh. This paper identified the socio-economic covariates of climate change perception and vulnerability in relation to agricultural adaptation. It was also determined whether their perception was consistent with meteorological information. Findings revealed that the farmers had a moderate level of perception of and vulnerability to climate change. An overwhelming majority (98%) of the respondents perceived a warmer summer and 96% of them observed a colder winter compared to the past. Among the farmers, 91% believed that rainfall had increased and 97% thought that the timing of rainfall had changed. The belief of increase in soil salinity and associated loss was prevailing among 98 and 99% of them, respectively. Observed climate data were mostly aligned with the farmers' perception with respect to temperature, rainfall, floods, droughts and salinity. Positive correlations were found among the perception of climate change, the perception of vulnerability and the number of adopted adaptation practices. Farmers' level of understanding of climate change, vulnerability and adaptation practices could be improved by involving them in different organizations, such as climate field school and farmer associations. It could accelerate the dissemination of agricultural adaptation practices among them to cope with adverse agricultural impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30779747, year = {2019}, author = {Ross, LC and Speed, JDM and Øien, DI and Grygoruk, M and Hassel, K and Lyngstad, A and Moen, A}, title = {Can mowing restore boreal rich-fen vegetation in the face of climate change?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {e0211272}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0211272}, pmid = {30779747}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Low-frequency mowing has been proposed to be an effective strategy for the restoration and management of boreal fens after abandonment of traditional haymaking. This study investigates how mowing affects long-term vegetation change in both oceanic and continental boreal rich-fen vegetation. This will allow evaluation of the effectiveness of mowing as a management and restoration tool in this ecosystem in the face of climate change. At two nature reserves in Central Norway (Tågdalen, 63° 03' N, 9° 05 E, oceanic climate and Sølendet, 62° 40' N, 11° 50' E, continental climate), we used permanent plot data from the two sites to compare plant species composition from the late 1960s to the early 1980s with that recorded in 2012-2015 in abandoned and mown fens. Changes in species composition and frequency were analysed by multivariate and univariate methods in relation to environmental variables and modelled climate and groundwater data. Mowing resulted in a decline in shrub and Molinia caerulea cover at the continental and oceanic sites respectively, and the total cover of specialist fen species had increased to a significantly greater extent in the mown plots than the unmown at the continental site. However, mowing did not have an effect on the cover of specialist bryophyte species, and some specialist species declined regardless of mowing treatment. Temperature sums had increased at both sites, but precipitation had not changed significantly. Mowing was shown to be the most important determinant of plant community composition at both sites, with local environmental conditions being of secondary importance. In conclusion, the abandonment of traditional management practices results in the loss of characteristic fen species. In order to encourage the restoration of typical rich-fen vegetation, particularly in oceanic areas, additional management measures, such as more intensive mowing, may be required.}, }
@article {pmid30779307, year = {2019}, author = {Santana Junior, PA and Kumar, L and Da Silva, RS and Pereira, JL and Picanço, MC}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on the worldwide distribution of Dalbulus maidis (DeLong) using MaxEnt.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.5379}, pmid = {30779307}, issn = {1526-4998}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: For the first time, a model was applied at the global scale in order to investigate the effects of climate change on Dalbulus maidis. D. maidis is the main vector of three plant pathogens of maize crops and has been reported as one of the most important maize pests in Latin America. We modeled the effects of climate change on this pest using three Global Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the MaxEnt software.<br><br>RESULTS: Overall, climate change will lead to a decrease in the suitable areas for D. maidis. In South America, climate change will decrease the areas that are suitable for the pest, especially in Brazil. However, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela will have small areas that are highly suitable for the corn leafhopper. Outside of the pest's range, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Africa also should be concerned about the risk of corn leafhopper invasions in the future since they are projected to have highly suitable conditions for this insect in some areas.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study will allow the relevant countries to increase their quarantine measures and guide researchers to develop new Z. mays varieties that are resistant or tolerant to D. maidis. In addition, the maize-stunting pathogens for the areas are highlighted in this modeling. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30778124, year = {2019}, author = {Kosanic, A and Kavcic, I and van Kleunen, M and Harrison, S}, title = {Climate change and climate change velocity analysis across Germany.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2196}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-38720-6}, pmid = {30778124}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Although there are great concerns to what extent current and future climate change impacts biodiversity across different spatial and temporal scales, we still lack a clear information on different climate change metrics across fine spatial scales. Here we present an analysis of climate change and climate change velocity at a local scale (1 × 1 km) across Germany. We focus on seasonal climate variability and velocity and investigate changes in three time periods (1901-2015, 1901-1950 and 1951-2015) using a novel statistical approach. Our results on climate variability showed the highest trends for the 1951-2015 time period. The strongest (positive/negative) and spatially the most dispersed trends were found for Summer maximum temperature and Summer minimum temperatures. For precipitation the strongest positive trends were most pronounced in the summer (1951-2015) and winter (1901-2015). Results for climate change velocity showed that almost 90% of temperature velocities were in the range of 0.5 to 3 km/year, whereas all climate velocities for precipitation were within the range of -3.5 to 4.5 km/year. The key results amplify the need for more local and regional scale studies to better understand species individualistic responses to recent climate change and allow for more accurate future projections and conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid30776634, year = {2019}, author = {Ren, S and Qin, Q and Ren, H}, title = {Contrasting wheat phenological responses to climate change in global scale.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {665}, number = {}, pages = {620-631}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.394}, pmid = {30776634}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; India ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Seasons ; Triticum/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Comprehensive analysis of how wheat phenology responds to environmental factors in global scale is helpful for tackling the possible adverse effects of ongoing climate change on wheat production. In this study, six phenological parameters of global wheat, i.e., the growing season start (SGS), peak (PGS), end (EGS), length (LGS), as well as the vegetative period length (LVP) and reproductive period length (LRP), were retrieved from remote sensing data (1981-2014) by threshold-, logistic-, and shape-based methods. And then, we analyzed the effects of temperature, precipitation, short-wave (SW) radiation, and frost on spatiotemporal patterns of wheat phenology. In addition, haze impacts on wheat phenology were investigated in China and India where haze weather appears frequently in winter-spring seasons. Results showed that the occurrence time of SGS/PGS/EGS is gradually advanced from the pole to the equator and annual mean air temperature can explain >70% of their spatial variations. A dominant advanced SGS/PGS/EGS and a shortened LGS/LVP/LRP were detected in the study region due to the significant increase in temperature and SW radiation, as well as the decrease in frost days. Interannual fluctuations of SGS/PGS/EGS are primarily controlled by air temperature, while precipitation and frost only exerted some obvious impacts in some locations. Higher preseason temperature would induce an earlier wheat phenology and a shorter growing season, while adequate precipitation and frequent frost in preseason could delay the occurrence timing of wheat phenology and lead to a longer growing season. Besides, the decreased temperature resulted from severe haze weather may have partly counteracted the global-warming-induced advancing trend of wheat phenology in China, but further advanced the occurrence timing of wheat phenology through prompting vernalization in India. Overall, though wheat growth is largely constrained by human management, we still highlight the strong impacts of global climate change on wheat phenology.}, }
@article {pmid30774719, year = {2019}, author = {Jorgenson, AK and Fiske, S and Hubacek, K and Li, J and McGovern, T and Rick, T and Schor, JB and Solecki, W and York, R and Zycherman, A}, title = {Social science perspectives on drivers of and responses to global climate change.}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {e554}, doi = {10.1002/wcc.554}, pmid = {30774719}, issn = {1757-7780}, abstract = {This article provides a review of recent anthropological, archeological, geographical, and sociological research on anthropogenic drivers of climate change, with a particular focus on drivers of carbon emissions, mitigation and adaptation. The four disciplines emphasize cultural, economic, geographic, historical, political, and social-structural factors to be important drivers of and responses to climate change. Each of these disciplines has unique perspectives and makes noteworthy contributions to our shared understanding of anthropogenic drivers, but they also complement one another and contribute to integrated, multidisciplinary frameworks. The article begins with discussions of research on temporal dimensions of human drivers of carbon emissions, highlighting interactions between long-term and near-term drivers. Next, descriptions of the disciplines' contributions to the understanding of mitigation and adaptation are provided. It concludes with a summary of key lessons offered by the four disciplines as well as suggestions for future research. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Economics and Climate Change.}, }
@article {pmid30772557, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, S and Zhang, J and Yue, T and Jing, X}, title = {Impacts of climate change on urban rainwater harvesting systems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {665}, number = {}, pages = {262-274}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.135}, pmid = {30772557}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Rainwater harvesting (RWH) is promoted in many cities (e.g., Beijing and Shenzhen) as a climate change adaptation measure to relieve urban water supply and drainage pressures. In this study, the impacts of future climate change on water saving and stormwater capture performances of RWH systems at cities across four climatic zones of China are investigated. A downscaling technique based on the Climate Generator is evaluated and employed to generate future (2020-2050) daily rainfall data. Performance indices of RWH systems (i.e., water saving efficiency, reliability, and stormwater capture efficiency) calculated using both the future and historical (1985-2015) daily rainfall data are compared. Two water demand scenarios (i.e., lawn irrigation and toilet flushing) are included in the investigation. The water saving performance is positively affected by the increases in future rainfall at the four cities, while the stormwater capture performance is negatively affected as a larger tank size is required to achieve a desired stormwater capture efficiency in the future period. The responses of water saving and stormwater capture performances of RWH systems to climate change are varying with not only the system dimensions (i.e., storage capacity and catchment area), but also the water demand scenarios and locations. RWH systems with larger storage capacity for larger water demand scenarios at humid and semi-humid cities is expected to be more resilient to climate change. The various changing patterns of the performance indices highlight the importance of incorporating climate change in the design of RWH systems. Location-specific adaptive adjustments (e.g., adjusting tank sizes, catchment areas or water demand rates) need to be adopted so that RWH systems can sustainably meet water saving and stormwater control requirements under future climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30771627, year = {2018}, author = {Perera, F and Ashrafi, A and Kinney, P and Mills, D}, title = {Towards a fuller assessment of benefits to children's health of reducing air pollution and mitigating climate change due to fossil fuel combustion.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {172}, number = {}, pages = {55-72}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2018.12.016}, pmid = {30771627}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Fossil fuel combustion by-products, including particulate matter (PM2.5), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), are a significant threat to children's health and equality. Various policies to reduce emissions have been implemented to reduce air pollution and mitigate climate change, with sizeable estimated health and economic benefits. However, only a few adverse outcomes in children have been considered, resulting in an undercounting of the benefits to this vulnerable population.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to expand the suite of child health outcomes addressed by programs to assess health and economic benefits, such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), by identifying concentration-response (C-R) functions for six outcomes related to PM2.5, NO2, PAH, and/or PM10: preterm birth (PTB), low birthweight (LBW), autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, IQ reduction, and the development of childhood asthma.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of the literature published between January 1, 2000 and April 30, 2018 to identify relevant peer-reviewed case-control and cohort studies and meta-analyses. In some cases meta-analyses were available that provided reliable C-R functions and we assessed their consistency with subsequent studies. Otherwise, we reviewed all eligible studies published between our search dates.<br><br>RESULTS: For each pollutant and health outcome, we present the characteristics of each selected study. We distinguish between C-R functions for endpoints having a causal or likely relationship (PTB, LBW, autism, asthma development) with the pollutants for incorporation into primary analyses and endpoints having a suggestive causal relationship with the pollutants (IQ reduction, ADHD) for secondary analyses.<br><br>CONCLUSION: We have identified C-R functions for a number of adverse health outcomes in children associated with air pollutants largely from fossil fuel combustion. Their incorporation into expanded assessments of health benefits of clean air and climate mitigation policies will provide an important incentive for preventive action.}, }
@article {pmid30765124, year = {2019}, author = {Mendenhall, E and Singer, M}, title = {The global syndemic of obesity, undernutrition, and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10173}, pages = {741}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30310-1}, pmid = {30765124}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid30763854, year = {2019}, author = {Gao, C and Liu, L and Ma, D and He, K and Xu, YP}, title = {Assessing responses of hydrological processes to climate change over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau based on resampling of future climate scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {737-752}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.013}, pmid = {30763854}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {With global warming, hydrological regimes in the headwater basins of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have significantly changed. Investigating the responses of hydrological processes to climate change in TP has become more and more important to make robust strategies for water resources management. However, using just a few GCMs may constrain the uncertainty in assessment of climate impacts. Therefore, a framework is proposed in this study to generate ensemble climate change scenarios and then investigate changes of hydrological processes under climate change in the upper reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River basin (UYZR) and Lancang River basin (ULR). Firstly, the Latin Hypercube Simulation (LHS) is used to generate an ensemble of future climate change scenarios by resampling change factors of meteorological variables from 18 GCMs under emission scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The inherent dependence structures of change factors, i.e. the correlations of change factors among 12 months for different meteorological variables, are also considered in ensembles. Secondly, the HBV hydrological model coupled with a degree-day snowmelt model is applied to explore the potential change of runoff in the future period 2041-2070. Results show that: 1) the resampling method is effective and can provide a wide ensemble of climate change scenarios. 2) Precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the UYZR and ULR basins are expected to increase under the two scenarios, particularly under RCP8.5. 3) The total runoff also shows a moderately upward trend in two basins, both mainly due to increased precipitation. In the UYZR basin, fast runoff accounts for a larger proportion in total runoff than slow runoff, while in ULR, both almost play the same role in total runoff. Furthermore, snowmelt-induced runoff in both basins would be less and rainfall-induced runoff will probably become more important in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30761418, year = {2019}, author = {Zhou, Y and Jiang, J and Ye, B and Zhang, Y and Yan, J}, title = {Addressing climate change through a market mechanism: a comparative study of the pilot emission trading schemes in China.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10653-019-00258-x}, pmid = {30761418}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {71803074//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71603110//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71771130//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 201506340061//China Scholarship Council/ ; G01296001//Southern University of Science and Technology/ ; 2017B030301012//Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Soil and Groundwater Pollution Control/ ; }, abstract = {The questions of how to mitigate climate change and its impact on human health are currently high on the Chinese agenda for future development. The emission trading scheme (ETS) has become one of China's most important instruments to address climate change through a market mechanism. In the wake of the evolution from regional pilots to a nationwide scheme, it is inevitable to be confronted with tremendous political-economic-institutional challenges. To facilitate a smooth start-up of the upcoming nationwide ETS, this study provides a systematic overview of seven ETS pilots, involving the detailed comparison of ETS design and the in-depth evaluation of market performance, both internal and external performance, based on trading data. Then, the achievements and deficiencies of seven ETS pilots are summarized, several challenges for the current time are discussed, and policy proposals for China's national-level ETS are navigated further coupled with international experience. This study finds that China's ETS pilots, from the short-term perspective, are successful, especially in the reinforcement of China's capacity to develop a market-based scheme in an economy that still cherishes many non-market endowments. However, deficiencies lie in both the internal and external market performance, such as the carbon price lacking a signal function, insufficient incentives for compliance, too low market liquidity, and much too high market fragmentation. Moreover, the retrospective examination of China's ETS pilots suggests that a nationwide ETS should at least be based on an extension of the cap duration from single year to several years, uniform rules on monitoring/reporting/verification and allowance allocation, and the improvement of institutional foundation.}, }
@article {pmid30760830, year = {2019}, author = {Watanabe, TK and Watanabe, T and Yamazaki, A and Pfeiffer, M and Claereboudt, MR}, title = {Oman coral δ18O seawater record suggests that Western Indian Ocean upwelling uncouples from the Indian Ocean Dipole during the global-warming hiatus.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1887}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-38429-y}, pmid = {30760830}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {JP25257207//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; 17H04708//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; }, abstract = {The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an interannual mode of climate variability in the Indian Ocean that has intensified with 20th century global-warming. However, instrumental data shows a global-warming hiatus between the late-1990s and 2015. It is presently not clear how the global-warming hiatus affects modes of climate variability such as the IOD, and their basin-wide ocean-atmosphere teleconnections. Here, we present a 26-year long, biweekly record of Sr/Ca and δ18O from a Porites coral drilled in the Gulf of Oman. Sea surface temperature (SSTanom) is calculated from Sr/Ca ratios, and seawater δ18O (δ18Osw-anom) is estimated by subtracting the temperature component from coral δ18O. Our δ18Osw-anom record reveals a significant regime shift in 1999, towards lower mean δ18Osw values, reflecting intensified upwelling in the western Indian Ocean. Prior to the 1999 regime shift, our SSTanom and δ18Osw-anom show a clear IOD signature, with higher values in the summer of positive-IOD years due to weakened upwelling. The IOD signature in SSTanom and δ18Osw-anom disappears with the overall intensification of upwelling after the 1999 regime shift. The inferred increase in upwelling is likely driven by an intensified Walker circulation during the global-warming hiatus. Upwelling in the Western Indian Ocean uncouples from the IOD.}, }
@article {pmid30760801, year = {2019}, author = {Nakabayashi, A and Yamakita, T and Nakamura, T and Aizawa, H and Kitano, YF and Iguchi, A and Yamano, H and Nagai, S and Agostini, S and Teshima, KM and Yasuda, N}, title = {The potential role of temperate Japanese regions as refugia for the coral Acropora hyacinthus in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1892}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-38333-5}, pmid = {30760801}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {17H04996//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; }, abstract = {As corals in tropical regions are threatened by increasing water temperatures, poleward range expansion of reef-building corals has been observed, and temperate regions are expected to serve as refugia in the face of climate change. To elucidate the important indicators of the sustainability of coral populations, we examined the genetic diversity and connectivity of the common reef-building coral Acropora hyacinthus along the Kuroshio Current, including recently expanded (<50 years) populations. Among the three cryptic lineages found, only one was distributed in temperate regions, which could indicate the presence of Kuroshio-associated larval dispersal barriers between temperate and subtropical regions, as shown by oceanographic simulations as well as differences in environmental factors. The level of genetic diversity gradually decreased towards the edge of the species distribution. This study provides an example of the reduced genetic diversity in recently expanded marginal populations, thus indicating the possible vulnerability of these populations to environmental changes. This finding underpins the importance of assessing the genetic diversity of newly colonized populations associated with climate change for conservation purposes. In addition, this study highlights the importance of pre-existing temperate regions as coral refugia, which has been rather underappreciated in local coastal management.}, }
@article {pmid30759571, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, T and Bao, A and Jiapaer, G and Guo, H and Zheng, G and Jiang, L and Chang, C and Tuerhanjiang, L}, title = {Disentangling the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on arid and semiarid grasslands in Central Asia during 1982-2015.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {653}, number = {}, pages = {1311-1325}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.058}, pmid = {30759571}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Asia ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Grassland ; Linear Models ; Rain ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, climate change and human activities have severely affected grasslands in Central Asia. Grassland regulation and sustainability in this region require an accurate assessment of the effects of these two factors on grasslands. Based on the abrupt change analysis, linear regression analysis and net primary productivity (NPP), the spatiotemporal patterns of grassland ecosystems in Central Asia during 1982-2015 were studied. Further, the potential NPP (NPPP) was estimated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model and the human-induced NPP (NPPH), which was the difference between NPPP and actual NPP, were used to differentiate the effects of climate change and human activities on the grassland ecosystems, respectively. The grassland NPP showed a slight upward trend during 1982-2015, while two obvious decreasing periods were found before and after the mutation year 1999. Additionally, the main driving forces of the grassland NPP variation for the two periods were different. During 1982-1999, climate change was the main factor controlling grassland NPP increase or decrease, and 84.7% of grasslands experienced NPP reduction, while the regions experiencing an increase represented only 15.3% of the total area. During 1999-2015, the areas of increasing and decreasing grassland NPP represented 41.6% and 58.4% of the total area, respectively. After 1999, human activities became the main driving force of the NPP reduction, whereas climate change facilitated grassland restoration. The five Central Asian countries showed widely divergent relative impacts of climate change and human activities on NPP changes. In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, anthropogenic decreases in grassland NPP intensified during 1982-2015, while the negative anthropogenic effects on grassland NPP in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan moderated. Further analysis identified precipitation as the major climatic factor affecting grassland variation in most areas of Central Asia and overgrazing as the main form of human activity accelerating grassland degradation. This study improves the understanding of the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on grasslands in Central Asia.}, }
@article {pmid30759551, year = {2019}, author = {Flores, JM and Gil-Lebrero, S and Gámiz, V and Rodríguez, MI and Ortiz, MA and Quiles, FJ}, title = {Effect of the climate change on honey bee colonies in a temperate Mediterranean zone assessed through remote hive weight monitoring system in conjunction with exhaustive colonies assessment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {653}, number = {}, pages = {1111-1119}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.004}, pmid = {30759551}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees/*physiology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Colony Collapse ; Mediterranean Region ; *Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Honey bee plays the leading role in the pollination of many wild plants and crops, but it currently faces serious threats. Climate change is pointed out as one of the causes of the colony collapse disorder. Understanding the response of bees to the new climate change scenario is essential to face this challenge. Especially in the most sensitive bioclimatic zones, such as the Mediterranean areas. In this work, we remotely monitored the weight of the hives with an electronic device during a flowering period in the beekeeping seasons of 2016 and 2017, marked by extreme episodes of drought and high temperatures. We assessed bee colonies at the beginning, middle and at the end of the flowering as well, considering the adult bee population, bee brood, and pollen and honey reserves. The results showed that the flowering was reduced in three weeks in 2017 in comparison to 2016. In those years weight gain was 7.67 kg and 18.92 kg, respectively. The adverse conditions affected the evolution of the populations of bees and the reserves of honey and pollen in a meaningful way, increasing food stress for bees. It also affected the pollen spectrum and commercial characteristics of honey. Our results provide objective data about the effect of climate change on bees, but it also proved the relevant role of bees in the study of changes in the environment.}, }
@article {pmid30754664, year = {2019}, author = {Ho, HC and Abbas, S and Yang, J and Zhu, R and Wong, MS}, title = {Spatiotemporal Prediction of Increasing Winter Perceived Temperature across a Sub-Tropical City for Sustainable Planning and Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16030497}, pmid = {30754664}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate variability has been documented as being key to influencing human wellbeing across cities as it is linked to mortality and illness due to changes in the perceived weather cycle. Many studies have investigated the impact of summer temperature on human health and have proposed mitigation strategies for summer heat waves. However, sub-tropical cities are still experiencing winter temperature variations. Increasing winter perceived temperature through the decades may soon affect city wellbeing, due to a larger temperature change between normal winter days and extreme cold events, which may cause higher health risk due to lack of adaptation and self-preparedness. Therefore, winter perceived temperature should also be considered and integrated in urban sustainable planning. This study has integrated the increasing winter perceived temperature as a factor for developing spatiotemporal protocols for mitigating the adverse impact of climate change. Land surface temperature (LST) derived from satellite images and building data extracted from aerial photographs were used to simulate the adjusted wind chill equivalent temperature (AWCET) particularly for sub-tropical scenarios between 1990 and 2010 of the Kowloon Peninsula, Hong Kong. Compared with perceived temperature based on the representative station located at the headquarters of the Hong Kong Observatory, the temperature of half the study area in the Kowloon Peninsula has raised by 1.5 °C. The areas with less green space and less public open space in 2010 show higher relative temperatures. Socioeconomically deprived areas (e.g., areas with lower median monthly income) may suffer more from this scenario, but not all types of socioeconomic disparities are associated with poor sustainable planning. Based on our results and the &quot;no-one left behind&quot; guideline from the United Nations, climate change mitigation should be conducted by targeting socioeconomic neighborhoods more than just aging communities.}, }
@article {pmid30745128, year = {2019}, author = {Li, G and Sun, S and Han, J and Yan, J and Liu, W and Wei, Y and Lu, N and Sun, Y}, title = {Corrigendum to &quot;Impacts of Chinese Grain for Green program and climate change on vegetation in the Loess Plateau during 1982-2015&quot; [Sci. Total Environ. 660 (2019) 177-187].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {665}, number = {}, pages = {1190-1191}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.396}, pmid = {30745128}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid30743953, year = {2019}, author = {Ker Rault, PA and Koundouri, P and Akinsete, E and Ludwig, R and Huber-Garcia, V and Tsani, S and Acuna, V and Kalogianni, E and Luttik, J and Kok, K and Skoulikidis, N and Froebrich, J}, title = {Down scaling of climate change scenarii to river basin level: A transdisciplinary methodology applied to Evrotas river basin, Greece.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {1623-1632}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.369}, pmid = {30743953}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Mediterranean region is anticipated to be (or, already is) one of the hot spots for climate change, where freshwater ecosystems are under threat from the effects of multiple stressors. Climate change is impacting natural resources and on the functioning of Ecosystem Services. The challenges about modelling climate change impact on water cycle in general and specifically on socio-economic dynamics of the society leads to an exponential amount of results that restrain interpretation and added value of forecasting at local level. One of the main challenges when dealing with climate change projections is the quantification of uncertainties. Modellers might have limited information or understanding from local river catchment management practices and from other disciplines with relevant insights on socio-economic and environmental complex relationship between biosphere and human based activities. Current General Circulation Models cannot fulfil the requirements of high spatial detail required for water management policy. This article reports an innovative transdisciplinary methodology to down scale Climate Change scenarii to river basin level with a special focus on the development of climate change narrative under SSP5-RCP8.5 combination called Myopic scenario and SSP1-RCP4.5 combination called Sustainable scenario. Local Stakeholder participative workshop in the Evrotas river basin provide perception of expected changes on water demand under to two developed scenario narratives.}, }
@article {pmid30743919, year = {2019}, author = {Grillakis, MG}, title = {Increase in severe and extreme soil moisture droughts for Europe under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {1245-1255}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.001}, pmid = {30743919}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Droughts are among the costliest natural disasters. They affect wide regions and large numbers of people worldwide by tampering with water availability and agricultural production. In this research, soil moisture drought trends are assessed for Europe using the Soil Moisture Index (SMI) estimated on Joint UK Land Environment Simulator simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathways, the RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios. Results show that SMI drought conditions are expected to exacerbate in Europe with substantial differences among regions. Eastern Europe and Mediterranean regions are found to be the most affected. Spatially and temporally contiguous regions that exhibit SMI of Severe and Extreme index categories are identified as distinct drought events and are assessed for their characteristics. It is shown that even under strong emissions mitigation, these events are expected to increase in occurrence (22% to 123%), while their characteristics will become more unfavorable. Results indicate increase in their spatial extend (between 23% and 46%) and their duration (between 16% and 48%) depending on the period and the scenario. Additional analysis was performed for the exceptionally wide-area (over 106 km2) severe and extreme soil moisture drought events that are expected to drastically increase comparing to the recent past. Projections show that those events are expected to happen between 11 and 28 times more frequently depending on the scenario and the period with a 59% to 246% larger duration. These findings indicate that even applying strong mitigation measures, agricultural drought risk in Europe is expected to become higher than our present experience.}, }
@article {pmid30743841, year = {2018}, author = {Shao, P and He, H and Zhang, X and Xie, H and Bao, X and Liang, C}, title = {Responses of microbial residues to simulated climate change in a semiarid grassland.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {1286-1291}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.055}, pmid = {30743841}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Bacteria ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Fungi ; *Grassland ; Soil ; *Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Microbial residues play important role in regulating soil carbon (C) turnover and stability, but the responses of microbial residues to climate change are neglected. In this study, a 5-year field experiment that simulated two climate change factors (precipitation and warming) was performed to examine microbial residue changes in a semiarid grassland, with water limitation. Both the contents of total amino sugars (a biomarker of microbial residues) and glucosamine (a biomarker of fungal residues) increased significantly with increased precipitation and decreased under warming, whereas neither increased precipitation nor warming influenced the content of muramic acid (a biomarker of bacterial residues). These findings clarified the role of fungal residues in determining the response of microbial residues to altered water availability and plant productivity induced by increased precipitation and elevated temperature. Interestingly, microbial residues had a much greater response to climate change than total soil C, implying that soil C composition and stability altered prior to soil C storage and simultaneously slowed down the change of soil C pool. Integrating microbial residues into current climate-C models is expected to enable the models to more accurately evaluate soil C responses to climate regimes in semiarid grasslands.}, }
@article {pmid30743113, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, B and Gao, X and Ma, J and Jiao, Z and Xiao, J and Hayat, MA and Wang, H}, title = {Modeling the present and future distribution of arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus under climate change scenarios in Mainland China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {203-214}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.301}, pmid = {30743113}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Aedes/*virology ; Animals ; *Arboviruses ; China ; *Climate Change ; Dengue ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Models, Statistical ; *Mosquito Vectors ; }, abstract = {Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are two important mosquito species which transmit various infectious arbovirus diseases represented mainly by dengue fever. These two species of mosquito have a wide range of distribution and strong transfer capacity. With ongoing global climate change, we are facing an increasing public health threat from the rapid spread of vectors in wider geographical areas. Based on observed occurrence records of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and high-resolution environmental layers reflecting climate and land-use conditions, a Maxent niche modeling approach was adopted to model the current and future distribution of both species in Mainland China. Our models provide predictions of suitable habitat shifts under future climate scenarios up to the 2050s. Both species were predicted to expand their niche range to varying degrees under future climate scenarios. Aedes aegypti was modeled to expand its habitat from Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan and Hainan to Fujian, Jiangxi and Guizhou. Aedes albopictus was modeled to increase magnitude of distribution within its present range of northern, southwestern and southeastern coastal areas of Mainland China. Area and population exposed to mosquitoes are predicted to increase significantly. Environmental variables that have significant impact on the distribution of mosquitoes are also revealed by our model. The results of our study can be referenced in further ecological studies and will guide the development of strategies for the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases.}, }
@article {pmid30743110, year = {2019}, author = {Tal, A}, title = {Letter to the editor regarding Wine et al. (2019): Lake Kinneret and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {175-176}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.371}, pmid = {30743110}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid30742734, year = {2019}, author = {Vasconcellos, MM and Colli, GR and Weber, JN and Ortiz, EM and Rodrigues, MT and Cannatella, DC}, title = {Isolation by instability: Historical climate change shapes population structure and genomic divergence of treefrogs in the Neotropical Cerrado savanna.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/mec.15045}, pmid = {30742734}, issn = {1365-294X}, abstract = {Although the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on the diversification of the tropical biota was once dismissed, increasing evidence suggests that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations greatly affected the distribution and population divergence of tropical organisms. Landscape genomic analyses coupled with paleoclimatic distribution models provide a powerful way to understand the consequences of past climate changes on the present-day tropical biota. Using genome-wide SNP data and mitochondrial DNA, combined with projections of the species distribution across the late Quaternary until the present, we evaluate the effect of paleoclimatic shifts on the genetic structure and population differentiation of Hypsiboas lundii, a treefrog endemic to the South American Cerrado savanna. Our results show a recent and strong genetic divergence in H. lundii across the Cerrado landscape, yielding four genetic clusters that do not seem congruent with any current physical barrier to gene flow. Isolation by distance (IBD) explains some of the population differentiation, but we also find strong support for past climate changes promoting range shifts and structuring populations even in the presence of IBD. Post-Pleistocene population persistence in four main areas of historical stable climate in the Cerrado seems to have played a major role establishing the present genetic structure of this treefrog. This pattern is consistent with a model of reduced gene-flow in areas with high climatic instability promoting isolation of populations, defined here as &quot;isolation by instability&quot;, highlighting the effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations structuring populations in tropical savannas. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30742109, year = {2019}, author = {Brun, P and Stamieszkin, K and Visser, AW and Licandro, P and Payne, MR and Kiørboe, T}, title = {Climate change has altered zooplankton-fuelled carbon export in the North Atlantic.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {416-423}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0780-3}, pmid = {30742109}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {Marine plankton have been conspicuously affected by recent climate change, responding with profound spatial relocations and shifts in the timing of their seasonal occurrence. These changes directly affect the global carbon cycle by altering the transport of organic material from the surface ocean to depth, with consequences that remain poorly understood. We investigated how distributional and abundance changes of copepods, the dominant group of zooplankton, have affected biogenic carbon cycling. We used trait-based, mechanistic models to estimate the magnitude of carbon transported downward through sinking faecal pellets, daily vertical migration and seasonal hibernation at depth. From such estimates for over 200,000 community observations in the northern North Atlantic we found carbon flux increased along the northwestern boundary of the study area and decreased in the open northern North Atlantic during the past 55 years. These changes in export were primarily associated with changes in copepod biomass, driven by shifting distributions of abundant, large-bodied species. Our findings highlight how recent climate change has affected downward carbon transport by altering copepod community structure and demonstrate how carbon fluxes through plankton communities can be mechanistically implemented in next-generation biogeochemical models with size-structured representations of zooplankton communities.}, }
@article {pmid30740614, year = {2019}, author = {Rabaiotti, D and Woodroffe, R}, title = {Coping with climate change: limited behavioral responses to hot weather in a tropical carnivore.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {189}, number = {3}, pages = {587-599}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-018-04329-1}, pmid = {30740614}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {NE/L002485/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is widely accepted to be one of the greatest threats to species globally. Identifying the species most at risk is, therefore, a conservation priority. Some species have the capacity to adapt to rising temperatures through changing their phenology, behavior, distribution, or physiology, and, therefore, may be more likely to persist under rising temperatures. Recent findings suggest that the African wild dog Lycaon pictus may be impacted by climate change, since reproductive success is consistently lower when pup-rearing coincides with periods of high ambient temperature. We used GPS collars, combined with generalized linear mixed-effects models, to assess wild dogs' potential to adapt to high ambient temperatures through flexible timing of hunting behavior. On days with higher maximum temperatures, wild dogs showed lower daytime activity and greater nocturnal activity, although nocturnal activity did not fully balance the decrease in daytime activity, particularly during the denning period. Increases in nocturnal activity were confined mainly to moonlit nights, and were seldom observed when packs were raising pups. Our findings suggest that nocturnal activity helps this cursorial hunter to cope with high daytime temperatures. However, wild dogs appear not to use this coping strategy when they are raising pups, suggesting that their resource needs may not be fulfilled during the pup-rearing period. Given that moonlight availability-which will not change as the climate changes-constrains wild dogs' nocturnal activity, the species may have insufficient behavioral plasticity to mitigate increasing diurnal temperatures. These findings raise concerns about climate change impacts on this endangered species, and highlight the need for behavior to be considered when assessing species' vulnerability to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30739851, year = {2019}, author = {Ma, X and Zhao, C and Yan, W and Zhao, X}, title = {Influences of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios on water use efficiency dynamics in the sandy areas of northern China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {161-174}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.402}, pmid = {30739851}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important variable used in hydrometeorology study to reveal the links between carbon-water cycles in sandy ecosystems which are highly sensitive to climate change and can readily reflect the effects of it. In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify the regional impacts of 0.5 °C of additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Using the modified Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and Advection-Aridity (AA) models with global warming values of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above preindustrial levels from Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) datasets, we conducted a new set of climate simulations to assess the effects of climate on WUE (the ratio of net primary productivity (NPP) to actual evapotranspiration (ETa)) in different sandy land types (mobile sandy land, MSL; semimobile/semifixed sandy land, SMSF; and fixed sandy land, FSL) during the period of baseline (1986-2005) and future (2006-2100). The spatiotemporal patterns of ETa, NPP, and WUE mostly showed increasing trends; the value of WUE decreased (6.40%) only in MSL with an additional 0.5 °C of warming. Meteorological and vegetation factors determined the variations in WUE. With warming, only the correlation between precipitation and WUE decreased in the three sandy land types, and the leaf area index (LAI) increased with an additional 0.5 °C of warming. The desertification degree comprehensively reflects the linkages among the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), LAI and WUE. Simulation results indicated the sandy area extent could potential increase by 20 × 104 km2 per decade on average during 2016-2047 and that the increase could be gradual (2.60 × 104 km2 per decade) after 2050 (2050-2100). These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global mean temperature change to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and can help identify the risk of desertification with an additional 0.5 °C of warming.}, }
@article {pmid30739158, year = {2019}, author = {Berman, A}, title = {An overview of heat stress relief with global warming in perspective.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {63}, number = {4}, pages = {493-498}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-019-01680-7}, pmid = {30739158}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {not required//none/ ; }, abstract = {Global warming seems more probable, whether as gradual warming or increased frequency of warmer episodes. The productivity of cattle in temperate countries will decline unless counteracting steps are adopted. The probability of pre-emptive breeding for maintaining temperate breed performance coupled with heat stress tolerance is too low to be adopted for counteracting warming. The expected warming will mostly involve temperature increases. These will indirectly affect radiant heat gain in animals owing to reduced radiant heat dissipation from the body by convective heat loss, which results in an increased sensitivity to incoming radiant heat at higher air temperatures. These necessitate an emphasis on increasing convective heat loss by structure design and forced air flow by fans. Convective heat loss diminishes with increasing air temperatures. Evaporative heat loss remains the alternative. Evaporative cooling of the ambient requires partial enclosing of the space surrounding the animals and is limited by the humidity in ambient air. An alternative was developed of coupling forced ventilation with wetting of animal surface. The exchange of ambient air flowing on animal surface makes the evaporation practically independent of air humidity and the loss of heat from animal surface practically independent of the surface to air temperature gradient. The coupling of forced ventilation with wetting combination may be attained in various parts of the dairy farm, the holding area of the milking parlour, the feeding trip and the resting area. Each of these requires differing structural and technological adaptations. Climate and farming systems vary between locations which require specific solutions.}, }
@article {pmid30739151, year = {2019}, author = {Balasubramanyam, V and Wilhelm Stanis, S and Morgan, M and Ojewola, O}, title = {Climate Change Communication in the Midwestern United States: Perceptions of State Park Interpreters.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01142-1}, pmid = {30739151}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {IIA-1355406//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Parks and protected areas can be ideal settings for climate change communication since many visitors have an affinity for natural and cultural settings, and an interest in resource protection. However, climate-based education efforts in the Midwestern United States may need a slightly different approach since this region lacks obvious indicators, such as sea level rise and melting glaciers. Interpretation, an informal communication process designed to transmit scientific information to visitors in leisure-based settings, could be a useful strategy for engaging visitors in climate change discussions. Few studies have assessed perceptions of interpreters on this topic, much less, their willingness to communicate such information. To address this issue, a mixed methods approach (surveys, interviews, photovoice) was used to examine interpreters' perceptions of climate change and its impacts in Missouri State Park and Historic Sites. Although nearly 70% of interpreters were either alarmed or concerned about climate change, many of them were unsure about its causation. Interpreters report observing impacts such as flooding, earlier plant blooming, high temperatures, extreme weather, and invasive species, but were uncertain about attributing these impacts to climate change. Interpreters did not believe that visitors would be responsive to climate-based education per se but thought the topic could be addressed in pre-existing programs and activities. Rather than discussing complex science with visitors, interpreters felt more comfortable with conveying the significance of resources at their sites. Implications from this study include acknowledging multiple viewpoints, framing strategic messages, and developing place-based educational materials.}, }
@article {pmid30738263, year = {2019}, author = {Mukul, SA and Alamgir, M and Sohel, MSI and Pert, PL and Herbohn, J and Turton, SM and Khan, MSI and Munim, SA and Reza, AHMA and Laurance, WF}, title = {Combined effects of climate change and sea-level rise project dramatic habitat loss of the globally endangered Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {663}, number = {}, pages = {830-840}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.383}, pmid = {30738263}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Oceans and Seas ; Tigers/*physiology ; Water Movements ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The Sundarbans, in southern coastal Bangladesh, is the world's largest surviving mangrove habitat and the last stronghold of tiger adapted to living in a mangrove ecosystem. Using MaxEnt (maximum entropy modeling), current distribution data, land-use/land cover and bioclimatic variables, we modeled the likely future distribution of the globally endangered Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We used two climatic scenarios (i.e., RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide projections of suitable habitats of Bengal tigers in 2050 and 2070. We also combined projected sea-level rise for the area in our models of future species distributions. Our results suggest that there will be a dramatic decline in suitable Bengal tiger habitats in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Other than various aspects of local climate, sea-level rise is projected to have a substantial negative impact on Bengal tiger habitats in this low-lying area. Our model predicts that due to the combined effect of climate change and sea-level rise, there will be no suitable Bengal tiger habitat remaining in the Sundarbans by 2070. Enhancing terrestrial protected area coverage, regular monitoring, law enforcement, awareness-building among local residents among the key strategies needed to ensure long-term survival and conservation of the Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.}, }
@article {pmid30737721, year = {2019}, author = {Gitea, MA and Gitea, D and Tit, DM and Purza, L and Samuel, AD and Bungău, S and Badea, GE and Aleya, L}, title = {Orchard management under the effects of climate change: implications for apple, plum, and almond growing.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-04214-1}, pmid = {30737721}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The authors analyzed certain species and varieties of fruit tree in which applied crop technology is used and also undergoes the effects of climate change. The aim is to extend productive crop varieties, resistant to disease and pests, in order to obtain superior yields. The research was conducted in orchards located in northwestern Romania (on 8.59 ha), intensively cultivated with apple, plum, and almond species. The blooming period of the species and fruit production was studied in 2009, the first year of the farm's commercial production, and then compared to figures from 2016 to see the changes that occurred. Climatic conditions were studied throughout the period of existence of the farm (2002-2016). To determine the influence of the climatic factor on the blooming and production periods, respectively, every year is considered having pre-blooming, blooming, and ripening periods. It was found that climate change influences the annual biological cycle of the trees: the vegetative rest period of the trees shortens, the tree vegetation begins earlier in the spring, and the blooming period is advanced by as much as 10 days compared to normal cultivated varieties. All these factors have direct repercussions on the quantity of production.}, }
@article {pmid30736916, year = {2019}, author = {Fond, G and Masson, M and Lançon, C and Auquier, P and Boyer, L}, title = {[Psychiatry and global warming].}, journal = {L'Encephale}, volume = {45}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.encep.2019.01.001}, pmid = {30736916}, issn = {0013-7006}, }
@article {pmid30731410, year = {2019}, author = {Liao, X and Xu, W and Zhang, J and Li, Y and Tian, Y}, title = {Global exposure to rainstorms and the contribution rates of climate change and population change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {663}, number = {}, pages = {644-653}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.290}, pmid = {30731410}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Africa ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; *Floods ; Humans ; Rain ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Quantifying global population exposure to rainstorms is a key component of population risk assessments for rainstorms and induced floods. Based on daily precipitation data from the NEX-GDDP dataset, rainfall from rainstorms is first calculated by a multi-model ensemble method for four periods from 1986 to 2100. Combined with population data from the SSP2 scenario, the global population exposure to rainstorms is then calculated and analyzed. Finally, the contribution rates of climate change effect, population change effect, and joint change effect on exposure change are quantitatively assessed. The results showed that (1) Population exposure to rainstorms shows a linear upward trend from base period to the late 21st century period in most regions, and the mid-21st century period compared with base period has the fastest rate of increase. (2) The spatial patterns of population exposure to rainstorms are very similar for the four periods and the areas with high exposure are mainly distributed in Asia, population exposure of Africa is gradually increasing. The countries with high exposure show little volatility, especially the top eight countries. (3) The change in total exposure is mainly due to population change. Based on the composition of the total exposure change for each country, the number of countries whose climate change effect is greater than that of population change is gradually increasing, and this number reaches more than a quarter of the total when the late 21st century period is compared with the mid-21st century period.}, }
@article {pmid30729375, year = {2019}, author = {Shahvari, N and Khalilian, S and Mosavi, SH and Mortazavi, SA}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on water resources and crop yield: a case study of Varamin plain basin, Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {3}, pages = {134}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-019-7266-x}, pmid = {30729375}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation/*methods ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Iran ; Models, Theoretical ; Rivers/chemistry ; Seasons ; Soil/chemistry ; Temperature ; Water Resources/*supply &amp; distribution ; }, abstract = {This research evaluated climate change impacts on water resources using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) models under representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 6, RCP 8.5). First, drought intensity was calculated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the period 1987-2016. Then, the coefficients of precipitation as well as minimum and maximum temperature changes were simulated as SWAT model inputs. The results revealed that temperature will rise in future periods and the precipitation rate will be changed consequently. Then, changes in runoff during periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 were simulated by introducing downscaled results to SWAT model. The model was calibrated and validated by SWAT calibration and uncertainty procedures (SWAT-CUP). Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients (0.57 and 0.54) and R2 determination coefficients (0.65 and 0.63) were obtained for calibration and validation periods, respectively. The results showed that runoff will rise in fall and spring while it will drop in winter and summer throughout future periods under all three scenarios. Such seasonal shifts in runoff levels result from climate change consequences in the forms of temperature rise, snowmelt, altered precipitation pattern, etc. Future-period evapotranspiration will rise under all three scenarios with a maximum increase in the period 2070-2100 under RCP 8.5 scenario. Additionally, rainfed crop yields will decline without considerable changes in irrigated and horticultural crop yields.}, }
@article {pmid30728622, year = {2019}, author = {Campbell-Lendrum, D and Prüss-Ustün, A}, title = {Climate change, air pollution and noncommunicable diseases.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {97}, number = {2}, pages = {160-161}, doi = {10.2471/BLT.18.224295}, pmid = {30728622}, issn = {1564-0604}, }
@article {pmid30728514, year = {2019}, author = {Nowogrodzki, A}, title = {How climate change might affect tea.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {566}, number = {7742}, pages = {S10-S11}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00399-0}, pmid = {30728514}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30726279, year = {2019}, author = {Le, PVV and Kumar, P and Ruiz, MO and Mbogo, C and Muturi, EJ}, title = {Predicting the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on malaria in coastal Kenya.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {e0211258}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0211258}, pmid = {30726279}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The transmission of malaria is highly variable and depends on a range of climatic and anthropogenic factors. This study investigates the combined, i.e. direct and indirect, impacts of climate change on the dynamics of malaria through modifications in: (i) the sporogonic cycle of Plasmodium induced by air temperature increase, and (ii) the life cycle of Anopheles vector triggered by changes in natural breeding habitat arising from the altered moisture dynamics resulting from acclimation responses of vegetation under climate change. The study is performed for a rural region in Kilifi county, Kenya.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use a stochastic lattice-based malaria (SLIM) model to make predictions of changes in Anopheles vector abundance, the life cycle of Plasmodium parasites, and thus malaria transmission under projected climate change in the study region. SLIM incorporates a nonlinear temperature-dependence of malaria parasite development to estimate the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium. It is also linked with a spatially distributed eco-hydrologic modeling framework to capture the impacts of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, which served as a key determinant for the formation and persistence of mosquito larval habitats on the land surface. Malaria incidence data collected from 2008 to 2013 is used for SLIM model validation. Projections of climate change and human population for the region are used to run the models for prediction scenarios. Under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) only, modeled results reveal wetter soil moisture in the root zone due to the suppression of transpiration from vegetation acclimation, which increases the abundance of Anopheles vectors and the risk of malaria. When air temperature increases are also considered along with elevated [CO2], the life cycle of Anopheles vector and the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium parasites are shortened nonlinearly. However, the reduction of soil moisture resulting from higher evapotranspiration due to air temperature increase also reduces the larval habitats of the vector. Our findings show the complicated role of vegetation acclimation under elevated [CO2] on malaria dynamics and indicate an indirect but ignored impact of air temperature increase on malaria transmission through reduction in larval habitats and vector density.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Vegetation acclimation triggered by elevated [CO2] under climate change increases the risk of malaria. In addition, air temperature increase under climate change has opposing effects on mosquito larval habitats and the life cycles of both Anopheles vectors and Plasmodium parasites. The indirect impacts of temperature change on soil moisture dynamics are significant and should be weighed together with the direct effects of temperature change on the life cycles of mosquitoes and parasites for future malaria prediction and control.}, }
@article {pmid30726183, year = {2019}, author = {Pan, Y and Opgenhaffen, M and Van Gorp, B}, title = {Negotiating climate change: A frame analysis of COP21 in British, American, and Chinese news media.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {963662518823969}, doi = {10.1177/0963662518823969}, pmid = {30726183}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {Climate negotiations have increasingly resonated with global governance and world power relations. However, media studies of climate change have paid relatively less attention to media frames of the problem solving. This study addresses this issue by examining the media coverage of COP21 from three countries that have considerable influence on climate politics: the United Kingdom, the United States, and China. By applying an inductive frame analysis, the study identified 10 media frames embedded in the discussions on climate negotiations. A deductive analysis further assessed the prevalence of these frames. The findings suggest that the frames were significantly influenced by the values of the established and emerging powers in the international policy area. The British and American media upheld the underlying norms that have long underpinned the existing Western-led order, while Chinese media coverage manifested a rising power in need of world recognition.}, }
@article {pmid30721162, year = {2019}, author = {Wellenius, GA and Sheffield, PE}, title = {The US Government Just Published a New Report Detailing the Impacts of Climate Change on Americans: Does it Matter?.}, journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {163-165}, doi = {10.1097/EDE.0000000000000952}, pmid = {30721162}, issn = {1531-5487}, }
@article {pmid30718624, year = {2019}, author = {Liang, P and Wang, X and Sun, H and Fan, Y and Wu, Y and Lin, X and Chang, J}, title = {Forest type and height are important in shaping the altitudinal change of radial growth response to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1336}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-37823-w}, pmid = {30718624}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {31870430//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 31370620//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Tree radial growth is widely found to respond differently to climate change across altitudinal gradients, but the relative roles of biotic factors (e.g. forest type, height and density) vs. climate gradient remain unclear. We sampled tree rings from 15 plots along a large altitudinal gradient in northeast China, and examined how climate gradient, forest type, height, tree size and density affect: (1) temporal growth variability [mean sensitivity (MS) and standard deviation (SD) of the chronologies], and (2) the relationship of ring width indices (RWI) with historical climate. We used BIC based model selection and variable importance to explore the major drivers of their altitudinal patterns. The results showed that: both growth variability and RWI-climate relationships changed significantly with altitude. Forest height was the most important predictor for altitudinal changes of MS and SD. For RWI-climate relationships, forest type was more important than climate gradient, while height and stem density were weak but necessary predictors. We showed that the altitudinal difference in growth response to climate change cannot be explained by climate gradient alone, and highlight the necessity to examine the influence of biotic factors (which covary with climate across geographic gradient) to better understand forest response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30718491, year = {2019}, author = {Dutkiewicz, S and Hickman, AE and Jahn, O and Henson, S and Beaulieu, C and Monier, E}, title = {Ocean colour signature of climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {578}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-08457-x}, pmid = {30718491}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Monitoring changes in marine phytoplankton is important as they form the foundation of the marine food web and are crucial in the carbon cycle. Often Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is used to track changes in phytoplankton, since there are global, regular satellite-derived estimates. However, satellite sensors do not measure Chl-a directly. Instead, Chl-a is estimated from remote sensing reflectance (RRS): the ratio of upwelling radiance to the downwelling irradiance at the ocean's surface. Using a model, we show that RRS in the blue-green spectrum is likely to have a stronger and earlier climate-change-driven signal than Chl-a. This is because RRS has lower natural variability and integrates not only changes to in-water Chl-a, but also alterations in other optically important constituents. Phytoplankton community structure, which strongly affects ocean optics, is likely to show one of the clearest and most rapid signatures of changes to the base of the marine ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid30713361, year = {2018}, author = {Levy, G and Vignudelli, S and Gower, J}, title = {Enabling earth observations in support of global, coastal, ocean, and climate change research and monitoring.}, journal = {International journal of remote sensing}, volume = {39}, number = {13}, pages = {4287-4292}, doi = {10.1080/01431161.2018.1464101}, pmid = {30713361}, issn = {0143-1161}, support = {NNX16AP70G//NASA/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid30712279, year = {2019}, author = {Frauendorf, TC and MacKenzie, RA and Tingley, RW and Frazier, AG and Riney, MH and El-Sabaawi, RW}, title = {Evaluating ecosystem effects of climate change on tropical island streams using high spatial and temporal resolution sampling regimes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14584}, pmid = {30712279}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//USDA Pacific Southwest Research Station/ ; //USDA Washington Office/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns worldwide, which will affect streamflow in riverine ecosystems. It is vital to understand the impacts of projected flow variations, especially in tropical regions where the effects of climate change are expected to be one of the earliest to emerge. Space-for-time substitutions have been successful at predicting effects of climate change in terrestrial systems by using a spatial gradient to mimic the projected temporal change. However, concerns have been raised that the spatial variability in these models might not reflect the temporal variability. We utilized a well-constrained rainfall gradient on Hawaii Island to determine (a) how predicted decreases in flow and increases in flow variability affect stream food resources and consumers and (b) if using a high temporal (monthly, four streams) or a high spatial (annual, eight streams) resolution sampling scheme would alter the results of a space-for-time substitution. Declines in benthic and suspended resource quantity (10- to 40-fold) and quality (shift from macrophyte to leaf litter dominated) contributed to 35-fold decreases in macroinvertebrate biomass with predicted changes in the magnitude and variability in the flow. Invertebrate composition switched from caddisflies and damselflies to taxa with faster turnover rates (mosquitoes, copepods). Changes in resource and consumer composition patterns were stronger with high temporal resolution sampling. However, trends and ranges of results did not differ between the two sampling regimes, indicating that a suitable, well-constrained spatial gradient is an appropriate tool for examining temporal change. Our study is the first to investigate resource to community wide effects of climate change on tropical streams on a spatial and temporal scale. We determined that predicted flow alterations would decrease stream resource and consumer quantity and quality, which can alter stream function, as well as biomass and habitat for freshwater, marine, and terrestrial consumers dependent on these resources.}, }
@article {pmid30709074, year = {2019}, author = {Salas, RN}, title = {Climate Change: A Review of a Public Health Opportunity for the Northeast.}, journal = {Rhode Island medical journal (2013)}, volume = {102}, number = {1}, pages = {42-45}, pmid = {30709074}, issn = {2327-2228}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Greenhouse Effect/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; North America ; Policy Making ; *Public Health ; Public Health Surveillance ; }, abstract = {[Full article available at http://rimed.org/rimedicaljournal-2019-02.asp].}, }
@article {pmid30706600, year = {2019}, author = {Díaz, FP and Latorre, C and Carrasco-Puga, G and Wood, JR and Wilmshurst, JM and Soto, DC and Cole, TL and Gutiérrez, RA}, title = {Multiscale climate change impacts on plant diversity in the Atacama Desert.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14583}, pmid = {30706600}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DE-FOA-0001207//EvoNet/ ; AFB-170008//CONICYT Aporte de Financiamiento Basal/ ; //Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research/ ; 15090007//Fondo de Desarrollo de Areas Prioritarias (FONDAP) Center for Genome Regulation/ ; 3150616//Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico/ ; //Strategic Science Investment Funding for Crown Research Institutes/ ; //Millennium Institute for Integrative Biology (iBio) Iniciativa Científica Milenio-MINECON/ ; }, abstract = {Comprehending ecological dynamics requires not only knowledge of modern communities but also detailed reconstructions of ecosystem history. Ancient DNA (aDNA) metabarcoding allows biodiversity responses to major climatic change to be explored at different spatial and temporal scales. We extracted aDNA preserved in fossil rodent middens to reconstruct late Quaternary vegetation dynamics in the hyperarid Atacama Desert. By comparing our paleo-informed millennial record with contemporary observations of interannual variations in diversity, we show local plant communities behave differentially at different timescales. In the interannual (years to decades) time frame, only annual herbaceous expand and contract their distributional ranges (emerging from persistent seed banks) in response to precipitation, whereas perennials distribution appears to be extraordinarily resilient. In contrast, at longer timescales (thousands of years) many perennial species were displaced up to 1,000 m downslope during pluvial events. Given ongoing and future natural and anthropogenically induced climate change, our results not only provide baselines for vegetation in the Atacama Desert, but also help to inform how these and other high mountain plant communities may respond to fluctuations of climate in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30705325, year = {2019}, author = {Amélineau, F and Grémillet, D and Harding, AMA and Walkusz, W and Choquet, R and Fort, J}, title = {Arctic climate change and pollution impact little auk foraging and fitness across a decade.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1014}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-38042-z}, pmid = {30705325}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {0612504//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 388//Institut Polaire Fran&amp;#x00E7;ais Paul Emile Victor (Institut Fran&amp;#x00E7;ais pour la Recherche et la Technologie Polaire)/ ; GEFNE 41-12//National Geographic Society/ ; }, abstract = {Ongoing global changes apply drastic environmental forcing onto Arctic marine ecosystems, particularly through ocean warming, sea-ice shrinkage and enhanced pollution. To test impacts on arctic marine ecological functioning, we used a 12-year integrative study of little auks (Alle alle), the most abundant seabird in the Atlantic Arctic. We monitored the foraging ecology, reproduction, survival and body condition of breeding birds, and we tested linkages between these biological variables and a set of environmental parameters including sea-ice concentration (SIC) and mercury contamination. Little auks showed substantial plasticity in response to SIC, with deeper and longer dives but less time spent underwater and more time flying when SIC decreased. Their diet also contained less lipid-rich ice-associated prey when SIC decreased. Further, in contrast to former studies conducted at the annual scale, little auk fitness proxies were impacted by environmental changes: Adult body condition and chick growth rate were negatively linked to SIC and mercury contamination. However, no trend was found for adult survival despite high inter-annual variability. Our results suggest that potential benefits of milder climatic conditions in East Greenland may be offset by increasing pollution in the Arctic. Overall, our study stresses the importance of long-term studies integrating ecology and ecotoxicology.}, }
@article {pmid30704089, year = {2019}, author = {Raza, A and Razzaq, A and Mehmood, SS and Zou, X and Zhang, X and Lv, Y and Xu, J}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Crops Adaptation and Strategies to Tackle Its Outcome: A Review.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants8020034}, pmid = {30704089}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2017YFD0101701//National Basic Research Program of China (2017YFD0101701) and Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program of CAAS./ ; }, abstract = {Agriculture and climate change are internally correlated with each other in various aspects, as climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses, which have adverse effects on the agriculture of a region. The land and its agriculture are being affected by climate changes in different ways, e.g., variations in annual rainfall, average temperature, heat waves, modifications in weeds, pests or microbes, global change of atmospheric CO₂ or ozone level, and fluctuations in sea level. The threat of varying global climate has greatly driven the attention of scientists, as these variations are imparting negative impact on global crop production and compromising food security worldwide. According to some predicted reports, agriculture is considered the most endangered activity adversely affected by climate changes. To date, food security and ecosystem resilience are the most concerning subjects worldwide. Climate-smart agriculture is the only way to lower the negative impact of climate variations on crop adaptation, before it might affect global crop production drastically. In this review paper, we summarize the causes of climate change, stresses produced due to climate change, impacts on crops, modern breeding technologies, and biotechnological strategies to cope with climate change, in order to develop climate resilient crops. Revolutions in genetic engineering techniques can also aid in overcoming food security issues against extreme environmental conditions, by producing transgenic plants.}, }
@article {pmid30703725, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmadalipour, A and Moradkhani, H and Castelletti, A and Magliocca, N}, title = {Future drought risk in Africa: Integrating vulnerability, climate change, and population growth.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {662}, number = {}, pages = {672-686}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.278}, pmid = {30703725}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Drought risk refers to the potential losses from hazard imposed by a drought event, and it is generally characterized as a function of vulnerability, hazard, and exposure. In this study, drought risk is assessed at a national level across Africa, and the impacts of climate change, population growth, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities on drought risk are investigated. A rigorous framework is implemented to quantify drought vulnerability considering various sectors including economy, energy and infrastructure, health, land use, society, and water resources. Multi-model and multi-scenario analyses are employed to quantify drought hazard using an ensemble of 10 regional climate models and a multi-scalar drought index. Drought risk is then assessed in each country for 2 climate emission pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), 3 population scenarios, and 3 vulnerability scenarios during three future periods between 2010 and 2100. Drought risk ratio is quantified, and the role of each component (i.e. hazard, vulnerability, and exposure) is identified, and the associated uncertainties are also characterized. Results show that drought risk is expected to increase in future across Africa with varied rates for different models and scenarios. Although northern African countries indicate aggravating drought hazard, drought risk ratio is found to be highest in central African countries as a consequent of vulnerability and population rise in that region. Results indicate that if no climate change adaptation is implemented, unprecedented drought hazard and risk will occur decades earlier. In addition, controlling population growth is found to be imperative for mitigating drought risk in Africa (even more effective than climate change mitigation), as it improves socioeconomic vulnerability and reduces potential exposure to drought.}, }
@article {pmid30701216, year = {2018}, author = {Ganne-Carrié, N}, title = {Alcohol-related liver disease: do weather and daylight level matter or is there a paradoxical good side of global warming?.}, journal = {Translational gastroenterology and hepatology}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {109}, doi = {10.21037/tgh.2018.12.08}, pmid = {30701216}, issn = {2415-1289}, }
@article {pmid30700855, year = {2019}, author = {Soultan, A and Wikelski, M and Safi, K}, title = {Risk of biodiversity collapse under climate change in the Afro-Arabian region.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {955}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-37851-6}, pmid = {30700855}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {For 107 endemic mammal species in the Afro-Arabian region, Sahara-Sahel and Arabian Desert, we used ensemble species distribution models to: (1) identify the hotspot areas for conservation, (2) assess the potential impact of the projected climate change on the distribution of the focal species, and (3) assign IUCN threat categories for the focal species according to the predicted changes in their potential distribution range. We identified two main hotspot areas for endemic mammals: the Sinai and its surrounding coastal area in the East, and the Mediterranean Coast around Morocco in the West. Alarmingly, our results indicate that about 17% of the endemic mammals in the Afro-Arabian region under the current climate change scenarios could go extinct before 2050. Overall, a substantial number of the endemic species will change from the IUCN threat category &quot;Least Concern&quot; to &quot;Critically Endangered&quot; or &quot;Extinct&quot; in the coming decades. Accordingly, we call for implementing an urgent proactive conservation action for these endemic species, particularly those that face a high risk of extinction in the next few years. The results of our study provide conservation managers and practitioners with the required information for implementing an effective conservation plan to protect the biodiversity of the Afro-Arabian region.}, }
@article {pmid30700377, year = {2019}, author = {Swinburn, BA and Kraak, VI and Allender, S and Atkins, VJ and Baker, PI and Bogard, JR and Brinsden, H and Calvillo, A and De Schutter, O and Devarajan, R and Ezzati, M and Friel, S and Goenka, S and Hammond, RA and Hastings, G and Hawkes, C and Herrero, M and Hovmand, PS and Howden, M and Jaacks, LM and Kapetanaki, AB and Kasman, M and Kuhnlein, HV and Kumanyika, SK and Larijani, B and Lobstein, T and Long, MW and Matsudo, VKR and Mills, SDH and Morgan, G and Morshed, A and Nece, PM and Pan, A and Patterson, DW and Sacks, G and Shekar, M and Simmons, GL and Smit, W and Tootee, A and Vandevijvere, S and Waterlander, WE and Wolfenden, L and Dietz, WH}, title = {The Global Syndemic of Obesity, Undernutrition, and Climate Change: The Lancet Commission report.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10173}, pages = {791-846}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32822-8}, pmid = {30700377}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {T32 HL130357/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid30699991, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, T and Ren, Z and Zhang, Y and Feng, B and Lin, H and Xiao, J and Zeng, W and Li, X and Li, Z and Rutherford, S and Xu, Y and Lin, S and Nasca, PC and Du, Y and Wang, J and Huang, C and Jia, P and Ma, W}, title = {Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16030376}, pmid = {30699991}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {S2013010014670//the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province/ ; 201616//Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission/ ; 2012CB955503//National Science and Technology Major Program/ ; }, abstract = {(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.}, }
@article {pmid30698987, year = {2019}, author = {Burggren, WW}, title = {Inadequacy of typical physiological experimental protocols for investigating consequences of stochastic weather events emerging from global warming.}, journal = {American journal of physiology. Regulatory, integrative and comparative physiology}, volume = {316}, number = {4}, pages = {R318-R322}, doi = {10.1152/ajpregu.00307.2018}, pmid = {30698987}, issn = {1522-1490}, abstract = {Increasingly variable, extreme, and nonpredictable weather events are predicted to accompany climate change, and such weather events will especially affect temperate, terrestrial environments. Yet, typical protocols in comparative physiology that examine environmental change typically employ simple step-wise changes in the experimental stressor of interest (e.g., temperature, water availability, oxygen, nutrition). Such protocols fall short of mimicking actual natural environments and may be inadequate for fully exploring the physiological effects of stochastic, extreme weather events. Indeed, numerous studies from the field of thermal biology, especially, indicate nonlinear and sometimes counterintuitive findings associated with variable and fluctuating (but rarely truly stochastic) protocols for temperature change. This Perspective article suggests that alternative experimental protocols should be employed that go beyond step-wise protocols and even beyond variable protocols employing circadian rhythms, for example, to those that actually embrace nonpredictable elements. Such protocols, though admittedly more difficult to implement, are more likely to reveal the capabilities (and, importantly, the limitations) of animals experiencing weather, as distinct from climate. While some possible protocols involving stochasticity are described as examples to stimulate additional thought on experimental design, the overall goal of this Perspective article is to encourage comparative physiologists to entertain incorporation of nonpredictable experimental conditions as they design future experimental protocols.}, }
@article {pmid30698905, year = {2019}, author = {Bruno, D and Belmar, O and Maire, A and Morel, A and Dumont, B and Datry, T}, title = {Structural and functional responses of invertebrate communities to climate change and flow regulation in alpine catchments.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14581}, pmid = {30698905}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {MINECO FJCI-2016-29856//Programa Juan de la Cierva formación/ ; }, abstract = {Understanding and predicting how biological communities respond to climate change is critical for assessing biodiversity vulnerability and guiding conservation efforts. Glacier- and snow-fed rivers are one of the most sensitive ecosystems to climate change, and can provide early warning of wider-scale changes. These rivers are frequently used for hydropower production but there is minimal understanding of how biological communities are influenced by climate change in a context of flow regulation. This study sheds light on this issue by disentangling structural (water temperature preference, taxonomic composition, alpha, beta and gamma diversities) and functional (functional traits, diversity, richness, evenness, dispersion and redundancy) effects of climate change in interaction with flow regulation in the Alps. For this, we compared environmental and aquatic invertebrate data collected in the 1970s and 2010s in regulated and unregulated alpine catchments. We hypothesized a replacement of cold-adapted species by warming-tolerant ones, high temporal and spatial turnover in taxa and trait composition, along with reduced taxonomic and functional diversities in consequence of climate change. We expected communities in regulated rivers to respond more drastically due to additive or synergistic effects between flow regulation and climate change. We found divergent structural but convergent functional responses between free-flowing and regulated catchments. Although cold-adapted taxa decreased in both of them, greater colonization and spread of thermophilic species was found in the free-flowing one, resulting in higher spatial and temporal turnover. Since the 1970s, taxonomic diversity increased in the free flowing but decreased in the regulated catchment due to biotic homogenization. Colonization by taxa with new functional strategies (i.e. multivoltine taxa with small body size, resistance forms, aerial dispersion and reproduction by clutches) increased functional diversity but decreased functional redundancy through time. These functional changes could jeopardize the ability of aquatic communities facing intensification of ongoing climate change or new anthropogenic disturbances.}, }
@article {pmid30691890, year = {2019}, author = {Mertenat, A and Diener, S and Zurbrügg, C}, title = {Black Soldier Fly biowaste treatment - Assessment of global warming potential.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {84}, number = {}, pages = {173-181}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2018.11.040}, pmid = {30691890}, issn = {1879-2456}, abstract = {Cities of low and middle-income countries face severe challenges in managing the increasing amount of waste produced, especially the organic fraction. Black Soldier Fly (BSF) biowaste treatment is an attractive treatment option as it offers a solution for waste management while also providing a protein source to help alleviate the rising global demand for animal feed. However, to-date very little information is available on how this technology performs with regard to direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming potential (GWP). This paper presents a study that uses a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach to assess the GWP of a BSF waste treatment facility in the case of Indonesia and compares it with respective values for an open windrow composting facility. Direct CH4 and N2O samples were extracted from BSF treatment units and analyzed by gas chromatography. Results show that direct CO2eq emissions are 47 times lower the emissions from composting. Regarding the overall GWP, the LCA shows that composting has double the GWP of BSF treatment facility based on the functional unit of 1 ton of biowaste (wet weight). The main GWP contribution from a BSF facility are from: (1) residue post-composting (69%) and (2) electricity needs and source (up to 55%). Fishmeal production substitution by BSF larvae meal can reduce significantly the GWP (up to 30%). Based on this study, we conclude that BSF biowaste treatment offers an environmentally relevant alternative with very low direct GHG emissions and potentially high GWP reduction. Further research should improve residue post-treatment.}, }
@article {pmid30688178, year = {2019}, author = {Macdiarmid, JI and Whybrow, S}, title = {Nutrition from a climate change perspective.}, journal = {The Proceedings of the Nutrition Society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-8}, doi = {10.1017/S0029665118002896}, pmid = {30688178}, issn = {1475-2719}, abstract = {Climate change is threatening future global food and nutrition security. Limiting the increase in global temperature to 1·5 °C set out in The Paris Agreement (2015) while achieving nutrient security means overhauling the current food system to create one that can deliver healthy and sustainable diets. To attain this, it is critical to understand the implications for nutrition of actions to mitigate climate change as well as the impacts of climate change on food production and the nutrient composition of foods. It is widely recognised that livestock production has a much greater environmental burden than crop production, and therefore advice is to reduce meat consumption. This has triggered concern in some sectors about a lack of protein in diets, which hence is driving efforts to find protein replacements. However, in most high- and middle-income countries, protein intakes far exceed dietary requirements and it would even if all meat were removed from diets. Reduction in micronutrients should be given more attention when reducing meat. Simply eating less meat does not guarantee healthier or more sustainable diets. Climate change will also affect the type, amount and nutrient quality of food that can be produced. Studies have shown that increased temperature and elevated CO2 levels can reduce the nutrient density of some staple crops, which is of particular concern in low-income countries. Nutrition from a climate change perspective means considering the potential consequences of any climate action on food and nutrition security. In this paper, we discuss these issues from an interdisciplinary perspective.}, }
@article {pmid30687988, year = {2019}, author = {Ettinger, AK and Chuine, I and Cook, BI and Dukes, JS and Ellison, AM and Johnston, MR and Panetta, AM and Rollinson, CR and Vitasse, Y and Wolkovich, EM}, title = {How do climate change experiments alter plot-scale climate?.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {748-763}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13223}, pmid = {30687988}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {NSF DBI 14-01854//National Science Foundation/ ; //Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study at Harvard University/ ; }, abstract = {To understand and forecast biological responses to climate change, scientists frequently use field experiments that alter temperature and precipitation. Climate manipulations can manifest in complex ways, however, challenging interpretations of biological responses. We reviewed publications to compile a database of daily plot-scale climate data from 15 active-warming experiments. We find that the common practices of analysing treatments as mean or categorical changes (e.g. warmed vs. unwarmed) masks important variation in treatment effects over space and time. Our synthesis showed that measured mean warming, in plots with the same target warming within a study, differed by up to 1.6 ∘ C (63% of target), on average, across six studies with blocked designs. Variation was high across sites and designs: for example, plots differed by 1.1 ∘ C (47% of target) on average, for infrared studies with feedback control (n = 3) vs. by 2.2 ∘ C (80% of target) on average for infrared with constant wattage designs (n = 2). Warming treatments produce non-temperature effects as well, such as soil drying. The combination of these direct and indirect effects is complex and can have important biological consequences. With a case study of plant phenology across five experiments in our database, we show how accounting for drier soils with warming tripled the estimated sensitivity of budburst to temperature. We provide recommendations for future analyses, experimental design, and data sharing to improve our mechanistic understanding from climate change experiments, and thus their utility to accurately forecast species' responses.}, }
@article {pmid30682609, year = {2019}, author = {Kriaučiūnienė, J and Virbickas, T and Šarauskienė, D and Jakimavičius, D and Kažys, J and Bukantis, A and Kesminas, V and Povilaitis, A and Dainys, J and Akstinas, V and Jurgelėnaitė, A and Meilutytė-Lukauskienė, D and Tomkevičienė, A}, title = {Fish assemblages under climate change in Lithuanian rivers.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {661}, number = {}, pages = {563-574}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.142}, pmid = {30682609}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Biota/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Hot Temperature ; Hydrology ; Lithuania ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rivers/chemistry ; Salmo salar/physiology ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Alterations of abiotic factors (e.g., river water temperature and discharge) will definitely affect the fundamental processes of aquatic ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of climate change on the structure of fish assemblages in fast-flowing rivers belonging to the catchment of the major Eastern European river, the Nemunas. Five catchments of semi-natural rivers were selected for the study. Projections of abiotic factors were developed for the near (2016-2035) and far future (2081-2100) periods, according to four RCP scenarios and three climate models using the HBV hydrological modelling tool. Fish metric projections were developed based on a multiple regression using spatial data. No significant changes in projections of abiotic and biotic variables are generally expected in the near future. In the far future period, the abiotic factors are projected to change significantly, i.e., river water temperature is going to increase by 4.0-5.1 °C, and river discharge is projected to decrease by 16.7-40.6%, according to RCP8.5. By the end of century, the relative abundance of stenothermal fish is projected to decline from 24 to 51% in the reference period to 0-20% under RCP8.5. Eurythermal fish should benefit from climate change, and their abundance is likely to increase from 16 to 38% in the reference period to 38-65% under RCP8.5. Future alterations of river water temperature will have significantly more influence on the abundance of the analysed fish assemblages than river discharge.}, }
@article {pmid30680858, year = {2019}, author = {Rinkevich, B}, title = {Coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue mechanism to mitigate global climate change impacts.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14576}, pmid = {30680858}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {M33-001//USAID-MERC program/ ; //Israeli-French high council for scientific &amp; technological research program/ ; //NAF/IOLR/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change and anthropogenic pressures inflict a wide range of profound damages on coral reef ecosystems, reshaping coral reef communities due to their physiological and ecological intolerance to the newly developing environmental conditions. Here, I present coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue tool for accelerating adaptive responses to global climate change impacts. The &quot;evolutionary rescue&quot; power is contingent on the premise that coral chimerism counters the erosion of genetic and phenotypic diversity. Further benefits are gained when flexible chimeric entities alter their somatic constituents following changes in environmental conditions, synergistically presenting the best-fitting combination of their genetic components to endure in a capricious environment, exhibiting always their environmentally matched physiological characteristics. Chimerism should be considered as an integral part of the ecological engineering toolbox being developed for active reef restoration.}, }
@article {pmid30680250, year = {2018}, author = {Newman, G and Qiao, Z}, title = {Climate Change Armor.}, journal = {Cheng shi she ji (2015)}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {50-63}, pmid = {30680250}, issn = {2096-1235}, support = {P42 ES027704/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate Change Armor is a collection of adaptive flood attenuation mechanisms for protecting newly designed communities from flood events and the eventual impacts of sea level rise. League City, TX is used as an application site. NOAA predicts that sea levels will increase and storm surge will become more frequent along the Texas coast. In the Gulf Coast, sea level projects to rise up to 629 feet by 2100. The Climate Change Armor Toolkit comprises both structural and non-structural mechanisms which are either engineered to block and control heavy floods or rely on natural systems and green infrastructure to attenuate flood waters from frequent storms or hazard flood events. With the application of the Armor Toolkit, 221,921 cubic feet of runoff can be captured, nearly 2,400 new residents are protected, over 3,000 jobs are created, $23 million in physical flood damage can be avoided, and approximately $1.3 billion can be generated in the life cycle benefits of the newly designed community by 2100.}, }
@article {pmid30680125, year = {2019}, author = {Li, R}, title = {Protecting rare and endangered species under climate change on the Qinghai Plateau, China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {427-436}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4761}, pmid = {30680125}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change-induced species range shift may pose severe challenges to species conservation. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the highest and biggest plateau, and also one of the most sensitive areas to global warming in the world, which provides important shelters for a unique assemblage of species. Here, ecological niche-based model was employed to project the potential distributions of 59 key rare and endangered species under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Qinghai Province. I assessed the potential impacts of climate change on these key species (habitats, species richness and turnover) and effectiveness of nature reserves (NRs) in protecting these species. The results revealed that that climate change would shrink the geographic ranges of about a third studied species and expand the habitats for two thirds of these species, which would thus alter the conservation value of some local areas and conservation effectiveness of some NRs in Qinghai Province. Some regions require special attention as they are expected to experience significant changes in species turnover, species richness or newly colonized species in the future, including Haidong, Haibei and Haixi junctions, the southwestern Yushu, Qinghai Nuomuhong Provincial NR, Qinghai Qaidam and Haloxylon Forest NR. The Haidong and the eastern part of Haibei, are projected to have high species richness and conservation value in both current and future, but they are currently not protected, and thus require extra protection in the future. The results could provide the first basis on the high latitude region to formulate biodiversity conservation strategies on climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid30677982, year = {2019}, author = {Garofalo, P and Ventrella, D and Kersebaum, KC and Gobin, A and Trnka, M and Giglio, L and Dubrovský, M and Castellini, M}, title = {Water footprint of winter wheat under climate change: Trends and uncertainties associated to the ensemble of crop models.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {1186-1208}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.279}, pmid = {30677982}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; Germany ; Italy ; Models, Biological ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Uncertainty ; Water/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change could undermine the future grain production as a consequence of increased temperature and drought condition or improve the crop performance owing to the increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Wheat water demand and yield are strictly related to climate conditions of the area where the plants are cropped. In this study, we assessed the future trends of grain yield and water consumption in two European regions, Germany (Continental region) and Italy (Mediterranean region) in the light of the multiple sources of uncertainty related to climate and yield forecasts. Four crop models were set up under combinations of two European climate regions, five Global Circulation Models and two Representative CO2 Concentration Pathways, 486 ppm and 540 ppm in 2050. Yield and water use were assessed under rainfed and irrigated regimes, and the water footprint of green water and total water was estimated. Our results indicated that projected yields were comparable (Mediterranean area) or even improved (+9%; Continental area) in rainfed conditions in comparison to the current trend; and water supply enhanced crop performance (+22% in Germany and +19% in Italy, as mean). Crop water consumption (both green and blue) remained stable in future projections but the water footprint was 5% lower on average in Italy and 23% in Germany when compared to the baseline. Despite the uncertainty in future predictions related to the factors analysed, our result indicated that current wheat production and its water footprint could become more favourable under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30677981, year = {2019}, author = {Li, W and Xu, X and Yao, J and Tanaka, N and Nishimura, O and Ma, H}, title = {Combined effects of elevated carbon dioxide and temperature on phytoplankton-zooplankton link: A multi-influence of climate change on freshwater planktonic communities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {1175-1185}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.180}, pmid = {30677981}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Food Chain ; *Hot Temperature ; Japan ; Lakes ; Phytoplankton/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; Zooplankton/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {It is essential to understand the combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on phytoplankton-zooplankton link when attempting to predict climate change responses of freshwater ecosystems. Phytoplankton species differ in stoichiometric and fatty acids composition, and this may result in phytoplankton-mediated effect on zooplankton at elevated CO2 and temperature. Beyond the isolated analysis of CO2 or temperature effect, few studies have assessed zooplankton growth under the phytoplankton-mediated effects of elevated CO2 and temperature. In this study, three algal species (green alga, diatom, cyanobacteria) were fed on zooplankton Daphnia magna, under the conditions of CO2 concentrations of ambient (390 ppm) and elevated (1000 ppm) levels and temperatures at 20, 25 and 30 °C. Elevated CO2 increased the algal biomass, while it reduced the phosphorus (P) and ω3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (ω3 PUFAs) to carbon (C) ratios. Elevated temperature decreased the P/C ratios in all algal cultures and ω3 PUFAs/C ratios in the diatom and the cyanobacteria cultures. Phytoplankton-mediated effect of elevated CO2 reduced the growth of zooplankton fed on the green and the mixed three algae culture. The stimulation of zooplankton fed on the diatom and the cyanobacteria by elevated temperature can be offset by decreasing food P and ω3 PUFAs contents. The combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on the growth of daphnids were mainly mediated by ω3 PUFAs/C ratios in the phytoplankton. Rising temperature as a combined direct and indirectly phytoplankton-mediated effect on zooplankton may be able to ameliorate the negative effects of elevated CO2. The results indicated that the combined effects of increased CO2 and temperature increased the fatty acid content of the green alga but not the other algae. This study highlighted that climate change with simultaneously increasing temperature and CO2 may entangle the carbon transfer in freshwater planktonic communities.}, }
@article {pmid30677973, year = {2019}, author = {He, W and Lian, J and Zhang, J and Yu, X and Chen, S}, title = {Impact of intra-annual runoff uniformity and global warming on the thermal regime of a large reservoir.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {1085-1097}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.207}, pmid = {30677973}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Thermal stratification is common in reservoirs and greatly influences the aquatic environment. Changes in the uniformity of intra-annual runoff have been detected in several basins, but few studies have focused on the impacts that these changes have on thermal regimes. Using runoff data for Sanbanxi Reservoir, China, during 1950-2015, the long-term trends of intra-annual runoff uniformity were statistically analyzed and extrapolated for the 2050s and 2090s, and the relationship between these trends and the thermal regime of the reservoir were investigated. Moreover, the thermal regime was evaluated for future climate scenarios accounting for global warming. This study shows the following: 1) for South China, the concentration degree (Cd) for the distribution of intra-annual runoff in natural basins such as Sanbanxi Reservoir tended to be higher, but for rivers significantly impacted by human activities, Cd tended to be lower. 2) a higher Cd was associated with an increased reservoir temperature and released water temperature, and decreased thermal stability. For Sanbanxi Reservoir, a 10% increase in Cd corresponded to a change in annual average temperature, thermal stability, and released water temperature of 0.036 °C, -48.4 J m-2, and 0.153 °C, respectively. These changes were larger in summer than in other seasons; 3) global warming is predicted to increase reservoir temperature, released water temperature, and thermal stability, having a more significant influence on these parameters than intra-annual runoff uniformity; 4) future changes in thermal regimes will intensify oxygen stratification and hypolimnetic anoxia, promoting algal blooms, and delaying fish spawning. Effects of two methods aimed at controlling the thermal regime were also analyzed, including changing the operation level and intake elevation of the reservoir. This study investigated the response of the thermal regime of Sanbanxi Reservoir to climate change, and provides theoretical support for the management of water temperature and the reservoir's aquatic environment.}, }
@article {pmid30677949, year = {2019}, author = {Santillán, D and Iglesias, A and La Jeunesse, I and Garrote, L and Sotes, V}, title = {Vineyards in transition: A global assessment of the adaptation needs of grape producing regions under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {657}, number = {}, pages = {839-852}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.079}, pmid = {30677949}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; China ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; Mediterranean Region ; Models, Statistical ; North America ; Oceania ; South Africa ; South America ; Temperature ; Vitis/*physiology ; }, abstract = {This paper suggests how climate change may transform vineyards. We consider changes in agro-climatic indicators derived from climatic variables as drivers for adaptation needs. We use two climate scenarios, GCM GFL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES, with 0.5° spatial resolution and daily time step forced by two emission scenarios, RCP2.6 and 6.0, to estimate the transition of potential vineyards in the major grape production world areas by the late 21st century. We present and discuss changes in three impact indicators - one drought indicator and two temperature ones - aimed at exploring the benefits of transition-based policies. The drought indicator provides insights to prepare adaptation for extreme events in probabilistic terms. The temperature indicators offer information on the transition towards suitable zones of production. Future projections suggest a lack of water to maintain current levels of production in all regions of the world. Furthermore, thermal suitability of grapevine may be greatly affected in China and the Mediterranean region. Nevertheless, the possibility of quality wines is not altered within the regions with adequate suitability. Lastly, a portfolio of strategies to adapt to the future climate is presented.}, }
@article {pmid30671678, year = {2019}, author = {Carlson, JM and Lehman, BR and Thompson, JL}, title = {Climate change images produce an attentional bias associated with pro-environmental disposition.}, journal = {Cognitive processing}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10339-019-00902-5}, pmid = {30671678}, issn = {1612-4790}, abstract = {Humans have developed mechanisms to prioritize certain sensory input(s). Emotionally salient stimuli automatically capture observers' attention at the cost of less salient information. This prioritized processing is called attentional bias. Images of climate change have been found to elicit emotional responses. Yet, to date, there is no research assessing the extent to which climate change-relevant images produce an attentional bias. In a sample of college students (N = 39), we found that (1) climate change-related images capture attention and that (2) this attentional bias is related to individual differences in environmental disposition. Thus, images of climate change are salient-attention grabbing-signals related to pro-environmental orientation.}, }
@article {pmid30671619, year = {2019}, author = {Mikovits, C and Zollitsch, W and Hörtenhuber, SJ and Baumgartner, J and Niebuhr, K and Piringer, M and Anders, I and Andre, K and Hennig-Pauka, I and Schönhart, M and Schauberger, G}, title = {Impacts of global warming on confined livestock systems for growing-fattening pigs: simulation of heat stress for 1981 to 2017 in Central Europe.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {63}, number = {2}, pages = {221-230}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-018-01655-0}, pmid = {30671619}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {ACRP8 ? PiPoCooL ? KR15AC8K12646//Austrian Climate Research Program/ ; }, abstract = {In the mid-latitudes, pigs and poultry are kept predominantly in confined livestock buildings with a mechanical ventilation system. In the last decades, global warming has already been a challenge which causes hat stress for animals in such systems. Heat stress inside livestock buildings was assessed by a simulation model for the indoor climate, which is driven by meteorological parameters. Besides the meteorological conditions, the thermal environment inside the building depends on the sensible and latent energy release of the animals, the thermal properties of the building and the ventilation system and its control unit. For a site in Austria in the north of the Alpine Ridge, which is representative for confined livestock buildings for growing-fattening pigs in Central Europe, meteorological data between 1981 and 2017 were used for the model calculations of heat stress measures. This business-as-usual simulation over these 37 years resulted in an increase of the mean relative annual heat stress parameters in the range between 0.9 and 6.4% per year since 1981. In order to minimise the negative economic impact as the consequence of this positive trend of heat stress, adaptation measures are needed. The calculations for growing-fattening pigs show that such a simulation model for the indoor climate is an appropriate tool to determine the level of heat stress of livestock inside confined livestock buildings.}, }
@article {pmid30671299, year = {2019}, author = {Sáenz-Romero, C and Kremer, A and Nagy, L and Újvári-Jármay, É and Ducousso, A and Kóczán-Horváth, A and Hansen, JK and Mátyás, C}, title = {Common garden comparisons confirm inherited differences in sensitivity to climate change between forest tree species.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6213}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.6213}, pmid = {30671299}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {The natural distribution, habitat, growth and evolutionary history of tree species are strongly dependent on ecological and genetic processes in ecosystems subject to fluctuating climatic conditions, but there have been few experimental comparisons of sensitivity between species. We compared the responses of two broadleaved tree species (Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea) and two conifer tree species (Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies) to climatic transfers by fitting models containing the same climatic variables. We used published data from European provenance test networks to model the responses of individual populations nested within species. A mixed model approach was applied to develop a response function for tree height over climatic transfer distance, taking into account the climatic conditions at both the seed source and the test location. The two broadleaved species had flat climatic response curves, indicating high levels of plasticity in populations, facilitating adaptation to a broader range of environments, and conferring a high potential for resilience in the face of climatic change. By contrast, the two conifer species had response curves with more pronounced slopes, indicating a lower resilience to climate change. This finding may reflect stronger genetic clines in P. sylvestris and P. abies, which constrain their climate responses to narrower climatic ranges. The response functions had maxima that deviated from the expected maximum productivity in the climate of provenance towards cooler/moister climate conditions, which we interpreted as an adaptation lag. Unilateral, linear regression analyses following transfer to warmer and drier sites confirmed a decline in productivity, predictive of the likely impact of ongoing climate change on forest populations. The responses to mimicked climate change evaluated here are of considerable interest for forestry and ecology, supporting projections of expected performance based on &quot;real-time&quot; field data.}, }
@article {pmid30671071, year = {2018}, author = {Varsamis, G and Papageorgiou, AC and Merou, T and Takos, I and Malesios, C and Manolis, A and Tsiripidis, I and Gailing, O}, title = {Adaptive Diversity of Beech Seedlings Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1918}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.01918}, pmid = {30671071}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The ability of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) populations to adapt to the ongoing climate change is especially important in the southern part of Europe, where environmental change is expected to be more intense. In this study, we tested the existing adaptive potential of eight beech populations from two provenances in N.E. Greece (Evros and Drama) that show differences in their environmental conditions and biogeographical background. Seedling survival, growth and leaf phenological traits were selected as adaptive traits and were measured under simulated controlled climate change conditions in a growth chamber. Seedling survival was also tested under current conditions in the field. In the growth chamber, simulated conditions of temperature and precipitation for the year 2050 were applied for 3 years, under two different irrigation schemes, where the same amount of water was distributed either frequently (once every week) or non-frequently (once in 20 days). The results showed that beech seedlings were generally able to survive under climate change conditions and showed adaptive differences among provenances and populations. Furthermore, changes in the duration of the growing season of seedlings were recorded in the growth chamber, allowing them to avoid environmental stress and high selection pressure. Differences were observed between populations and provenances in terms of temporal distribution patterns of precipitation and temperature, rather than the average annual or monthly values of these measures. Additionally, different adaptive strategies appeared among beech seedlings when the same amount of water was distributed differently within each month. This indicates that the physiological response mechanisms of beech individuals are very complex and depend on several interacting parameters. For this reason, the choice of beech provenances for translocation and use in afforestation or reforestation projects should consider the small scale ecotypic diversity of the species and view multiple environmental and climatic parameters in connection to each other.}, }
@article {pmid30670759, year = {2019}, author = {Montánchez, I and Ogayar, E and Plágaro, AH and Esteve-Codina, A and Gómez-Garrido, J and Orruño, M and Arana, I and Kaberdin, VR}, title = {Analysis of Vibrio harveyi adaptation in sea water microcosms at elevated temperature provides insights into the putative mechanisms of its persistence and spread in the time of global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {289}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-36483-0}, pmid = {30670759}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {CGL2015-70929-R//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&amp;#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; PT17/0009/0019//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&amp;#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; PT17/0009/0019//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&amp;#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; CGL2015-70929-R//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&amp;#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; CGL2015-70929-R//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&amp;#x00ED;ficas (Spanish National Research Council)/ ; }, abstract = {Discovering the means to control the increasing dissemination of pathogenic vibrios driven by recent climate change is challenged by the limited knowledge of the mechanisms in charge of Vibrio spp. persistence and spread in the time of global warming. To learn about physiological and gene expression patterns associated with the long-term persistence of V. harveyi at elevated temperatures, we studied adaptation of this marine bacterium in seawater microcosms at 30 °C which closely mimicked the upper limit of sea surface temperatures around the globe. We found that nearly 90% of cells lost their culturability and became partly damaged after two weeks, thus suggesting a negative impact of the combined action of elevated temperature and shortage of carbon on V. harveyi survival. Moreover, further gene expression analysis revealed that major adaptive mechanisms were poorly coordinated and apparently could not sustain cell fitness. On the other hand, elevated temperature and starvation promoted expression of many virulence genes, thus potentially reinforcing the pathogenicity of this organism. These findings suggest that the increase in disease outbreaks caused by V. harveyi under rising sea surface temperatures may not reflect higher cell fitness, but rather an increase in virulence enabling V. harveyi to escape from adverse environments to nutrient rich, host-pathogen associations.}, }
@article {pmid30669456, year = {2019}, author = {Paterson, RRM}, title = {Ganoderma boninense Disease of Oil Palm to Significantly Reduce Production After 2050 in Sumatra if Projected Climate Change Occurs.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/microorganisms7010024}, pmid = {30669456}, issn = {2076-2607}, abstract = {Palm oil is a valuable crop. This relates to the high economic return from sales of the commodity, where Indonesia is the major producer in the world and the island of Sumatra is the most important region for palm oil production in the country. The island can be considered as a model for other oil palm growing regions in SE Asia. The area in Sumatra with a suitable climate for growing oil palm will decrease in size due to projected climate change as demonstrated specifically herein. The more unsuitable climate will lead to concomitant increases in basal stem rot (BSR) by Ganoderma boninense, as previously predicted, which is of major concern to sustainability in SE Asia. A novel approach is described herein, whereby (a) a determination of suitable climate for growing oil palm in Sumatra and (b) deductions to determine future BSR levels on the island were undertaken. The unsuitability of the climate for oil palm is predicted to increase dramatically after 2050 when BSR is predicted to increase to very high levels on most parts of the island. This is likely to make palm oil production unsustainable at some stage between 2050 and 2100. North Sumatra may be more sustainable than the other areas considered in Sumatra. These effects of projected climate change require amelioration before the high levels of BSR and the unsuitable climate for oil palm are realized.}, }
@article {pmid30667508, year = {2019}, author = {Friedrich, MJ}, title = {Tracking Progress on Mitigating Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {321}, number = {3}, pages = {238}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2018.21621}, pmid = {30667508}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid30666613, year = {2019}, author = {Rudel, TK and Meyfroidt, P and Chazdon, R and Bongers, F and Sloan, S and Grau, HR and Van Holt, T and Schneider, L}, title = {Whither the forest transition? Climate change, policy responses, and redistributed forests in the twenty-first century.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-018-01143-0}, pmid = {30666613}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {#DEB1313788//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Forest transitions occur when net reforestation replaces net deforestation in places. Because forest transitions can increase biodiversity and augment carbon sequestration, they appeal to policymakers contending with the degrading effects of forest loss and climate change. What then can policymakers do to trigger forest transitions? The historical record over the last two centuries provides insights into the precipitating conditions. The early transitions often occurred passively, through the spontaneous regeneration of trees on abandoned agricultural lands. Later forest transitions occurred more frequently after large-scale crisis narratives emerged and spurred governments to take action, often by planting trees on degraded, sloped lands. To a greater degree than their predecessors, latecomer forest transitions exhibit centralized loci of power, leaders with clearly articulated goals, and rapid changes in forest cover. These historical shifts in forest transitions reflect our growing appreciation of their utility for countering droughts, floods, land degradation, and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30665904, year = {2019}, author = {Launer, J}, title = {Climate change: beyond denial and grief.}, journal = {Postgraduate medical journal}, volume = {95}, number = {1119}, pages = {59-60}, doi = {10.1136/postgradmedj-2019-136407}, pmid = {30665904}, issn = {1469-0756}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; *Denial (Psychology) ; *Grief ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid30665126, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, CC and Wang, YR and Guo, YL and Wang, YC and Lu, MM}, title = {Short-term prediction of extremely hot days in summer due to climate change and ENSO and related attributable mortality.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {661}, number = {}, pages = {10-17}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.168}, pmid = {30665126}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology/*mortality ; *Climate Change ; *El Nino-Southern Oscillation/adverse effects ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/etiology/*mortality ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Seasons ; Taiwan/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Summer days with extremely hot temperatures in Taiwan have been increasing for the past few decades, and this continuing trend is expected to worsen heat-related mortality. To mitigate the corresponding health impacts, in this study, we developed a statistical state-space model to predict the number of extremely hot days in June-September for the next year. Based on historical data from 1951 to 2017, we estimated the climate change trend after adjusting for the nonlinear lagged effect of the Niño 3.4 index. We then developed a predictive state-space model using these two primary factors and adjusting for residual autocorrelations. Validation results comparing the extremely hot days observed over 2015-2017 with predictions showed that 86% of the average prediction errors were within 4 days of the observations. To assess the health impacts, we applied the model to the projection of heat-attributable mortality (AM) in 2018 by adopting a comparative risk assessment (CRA) approach with the reference period of 2001-2010. The results showed that the Taipei metropolitan area in northern Taiwan is the most affected region with AM of 1501 deaths from all-causes, followed by Taichung in central Taiwan with 490 deaths. The prediction model and the CRA projection provide both a tool and guidance for public health administrators to address the imminent threat posed by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30664698, year = {2019}, author = {Pardo, JD and Small, BJ and Milner, AR and Huttenlocker, AK}, title = {Carboniferous-Permian climate change constrained early land vertebrate radiations.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {200-206}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0776-z}, pmid = {30664698}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {The Carboniferous-Permian transition (CPT) was Earth's last pre-Quaternary icehouse-greenhouse transition, recording major shifts in late Palaeozoic climate regimes and increased continental seasonality over approximately 40 Myr. Its parallels to Quaternary climate change have inspired recent investigations into the impacts of purported rainforest collapse on palaeotropical vertebrate diversity, but little is known about how the protracted spatial dynamics of this transition impacted the emergence of modern tetrapod lineages. Here, we apply ecological ordinance analyses on a dataset of 286 CPT fossil vertebrate localities binned across four physiographic regions forming a palaeoequatorial transect. Our results clarify the spatiotemporal expansion of land-living vertebrates, demonstrating that the reduction of tropical wetlands accommodated emerging dryland-adapted amniote faunas from a western Pangaean epicentre. We call this west-east lag the 'Vaughn-Olson model': CPT climatic transitions were regionally diachronous with delayed proliferation of amniote-dominated dryland assemblages in the east. By combining our ecological analyses with a phylogenetic approach, we demonstrate that this pattern also applies to some co-occurring total-group amphibians, suggesting that there was pervasive selection for such dryland adaptations across the crown tetrapod tree, in contrast with stem tetrapods and 'fishes'.}, }
@article {pmid30662319, year = {2019}, author = {Göpfert, C and Wamsler, C and Lang, W}, title = {A framework for the joint institutionalization of climate change mitigation and adaptation in city administrations.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {1-21}, doi = {10.1007/s11027-018-9789-9}, pmid = {30662319}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Cities are key actors in reducing both the causes of climate change (mitigation) and its impact (adaptation), and many have developed separate mitigation and adaptation strategies and measures. However, in order to maximize outcomes, both scholars and practitioners are increasingly calling for more integrated and synergetic approaches. Unfortunately, related research remains scarce and fragmented, and there is a lack of systematic investigation into the necessary institutional conditions and processes. Against this background, this paper develops a framework to assess and support the joint institutionalization of climate adaptation and mitigation-here called adaptigation-in city administrations. This pioneering framework draws upon four key features of bureaucracies: organizational structure, visions and goals, actors, and technology and tools. Illustrated by pilot applications to the cities of Würzburg (Germany) and Mwanza (Tanzania), the framework provides a robust basis for future research, policy recommendations, and the development of context-specific guidelines for national and local decision-makers and officials. It highlights the importance of (i) clearly defined procedures for the implementation of adaptigation into urban planning processes (e.g., with the active involvement of stakeholders in the form of working groups or roundtable discussions), (ii) locally relevant goals and visions, established in collaboration with stakeholders, and (iii) the creation of mitigation and adaptation structures that are supported by the appropriate level of human resources, both within and outside city administrations. In this context, global, supranational, and national institutions play an important role in supporting institutionalization by providing targeted funding and promoting adaptigation, which requires the development of integrated goals, visions, and legislation.}, }
@article {pmid30660270, year = {2019}, author = {Barreras, H and Kelly, EA and Kumar, N and Solo-Gabriele, HM}, title = {Assessment of local and regional strategies to control bacteria levels at beaches with consideration of impacts from climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {138}, number = {}, pages = {249-259}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.10.046}, pmid = {30660270}, issn = {1879-3363}, support = {P50 ES012736/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Bacteria ; *Bathing Beaches ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Feces/*microbiology ; Florida ; Multivariate Analysis ; Temperature ; *Water Microbiology ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {The objective of this study was to evaluate relationships between local factors (beach geomorphology and management) and regional factors (infrastructure improvements and temperature changes) against levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) at recreational beaches. Data were evaluated for 17 beaches located in Monroe County, Florida (Florida Keys), USA, including an assessment of sanitary infrastructure improvements using equivalent dwelling unit (EDU) connections. Results show that elevated FIB levels were associated with beach geomorphologies characterized by impeded flow and by beaches with lax management policies. The decrease in EDUs not connected coincided with a decrease in the fraction of days when bacteria levels were out of compliance. Multivariate factor analysis also identified beach management practices (presence of homeless and concession stands) as being associated with elevated FIB. Overall, results suggest that communities can utilize beach management strategies and infrastructure improvements to overcome the negative water quality impacts anticipated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30657748, year = {2019}, author = {Rodríguez Mega, E}, title = {Wild coffee species threatened by climate change and deforestation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00150-9}, pmid = {30657748}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30655436, year = {2019}, author = {Jean, K and Wymant, C}, title = {Airborne in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {363}, number = {6424}, pages = {240}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw1145}, pmid = {30655436}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid30652192, year = {2018}, author = {Prior, JH and Connon, IL and McIntyre, E and Adams, J and Capon, A and Kent, J and Rissel, C and Thomas, LE and Thompson, SM and Westcott, H}, title = {Built environment interventions for human and planetary health: integrating health in climate change adaptation and mitigation.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841831}, pmid = {30652192}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {*Built Environment/ethics/organization &amp; administration ; City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Environment Design ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; *Health ; Humans ; *Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Human-generated climate change is causing adverse health effects through multiple direct pathways (e.g. heatwaves, sea-level rise, storm frequency and intensity) and indirect pathways (e.g. food and water insecurity, social instability). Although the health system has a key role to play in addressing these health effects, so too do those professions tasked with the development of the built environment (urban and regional planners, urban designers, landscapers and architects), through improvements to buildings, streets, neighbourhoods, suburbs and cities. This article reports on the ways in which urban planning and design, and architectural interventions, can address the health effects of climate change; and the scope of climate change adaptation and mitigation approaches being implemented by the built environment professions. Type of program or service: Built environment adaptations and mitigations and their connections to the ways in which urban planning, urban design and architectural practices are addressing the health effects of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Our reflections draw on the findings of a recent review of existing health and planning literature. First, we explore the ways in which 'adaptation' and 'mitigation' relate to the notion of human and planetary health. We then outline the broad scope of adaptation and mitigation interventions being envisioned, and in some instances actioned, by built environment professionals.<br><br>RESULTS: Analysis of the review's findings reveals that adaptations developed by built environment professions predominantly focus on protecting human health and wellbeing from the effects of climate change. In contrast, built environment mitigations address climate change by embracing a deeper understanding of the co-benefits inherent in the interconnectedness of human health and wellbeing and the health of the ecosystem on which it depends. In the final section, we highlight the ethical transition that these approaches demand of built environment professions.<br><br>LESSONS LEARNT: Built environment interventions must move beyond simple ecological sustainability to encouraging ways of life that are healthy for both humans and the planet. There are key challenges facing this new approach.}, }
@article {pmid30652188, year = {2018}, author = {Beggs, PJ}, title = {Climate change and allergy in Australia: an innovative, high-income country, at potential risk.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841828}, pmid = {30652188}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology/etiology ; Pollen/adverse effects ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/epidemiology/etiology ; Risk ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: The impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases are important and potentially serious in Australia. Australia is highly vulnerable to such impacts because of its very high prevalence of allergic diseases such as asthma and allergic rhinitis, and allergic sensitisation to environmental allergens such as certain pollens and fungal spores. This article aims to review published research on the impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases from an Australian perspective.<br><br>METHODS: Research on climate change, allergens and allergy was reviewed. Recent global assessments of the topic were consulted, and supplemented with database searches to identify research published since the assessments were done, as well as research with an Australian focus. The databases used were Web of Science and Scopus. Only research published since the year 2000 was included.<br><br>RESULTS: The impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases are many and varied. Impacts on pollen include effects on pollen production and atmospheric pollen concentration, pollen seasonality, pollen allergenicity, and the dispersion and spatial distribution of pollen. Similarly, there is evidence for effects on fungal spore production, seasonality and allergenicity. There are also likely effects on indoor moisture and mould growth. Beyond these respiratory allergens, climate change may also affect food allergens, stinging insect allergens and contact allergens. All these changes could affect allergic diseases, in particular allergic respiratory diseases such as allergic asthma and allergic rhinitis.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A large and sophisticated body of research exists from which to gauge both current and potential future impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases. However, most, if not all, of this is from outside Australia. Australian-focused research is therefore urgently needed. Australia's vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change on allergic diseases is compounded by the precarious nature of aeroallergen monitoring, reporting and forecasting in this country. But Australia has an impressive wealth of relevant experience and expertise, and has the potential to address the challenge of both current and future impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases.}, }
@article {pmid30652186, year = {2018}, author = {Boylan, S and Beyer, K and Schlosberg, D and Mortimer, A and Hime, N and Scalley, B and Alders, R and Corvalan, C and Capon, A}, title = {A conceptual framework for climate change, health and wellbeing in NSW, Australia.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841826}, pmid = {30652186}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; New South Wales ; Public Health ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Changes in natural hazards related to climate change are evident in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, and are projected to become more frequent and intense. The impacts of climate change may adversely affect health and wellbeing, directly via extreme weather events such as heatwaves, storms and floods, and indirectly via impacts on food security, air and water quality, and other environmental amenities. The NSW Government's Climate Change Policy Framework recognises the need to reduce the effects of climate change on health and wellbeing. A conceptual framework can support the aims and objectives of the policy framework by depicting the effects of climate change on health, and individual and social wellbeing, and areas for policy actions and responses. A proposed conceptual framework has been developed, modelled on the Driving force, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect and Action (DPSEEA) framework of the World Health Organization - a framework which shows the link between exposures and health effects as well as entry points for interventions. The proposed framework presented in this paper was developed in consultation with researchers and policy makers. The framework is guiding current research examining vulnerabilities to climate change and the effects of a range of exposures on health and wellbeing.}, }
@article {pmid30652185, year = {2018}, author = {Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S and Pitman, A}, title = {Extreme events in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841825}, pmid = {30652185}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms ; Droughts ; Extreme Heat ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Natural Disasters/economics ; Rainforest ; }, abstract = {By definition, extreme events are rare. Socio-economic and human systems have not experienced adverse extreme events frequently enough to develop resilience, whether this be physical, economical or structural. Humans are vulnerable to extreme events because of our physiology and because we build thresholds into our socio-economic and human health systems. When these thresholds are exceeded the consequences can be devastating. This perspective will discuss changes in heat, drought and heavy rainfall extremes in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30652184, year = {2018}, author = {Hime, N and Vyas, A and Lachireddy, K and Wyett, S and Scalley, B and Corvalan, C}, title = {Climate change, health and wellbeing: challenges and opportunities in NSW, Australia.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841824}, pmid = {30652184}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; *Health ; Health Promotion ; Humans ; New South Wales ; }, abstract = {The NSW (New South Wales) Climate Change Policy Framework, launched by the NSW Government in 2016, recognises that climate change presents risks to health and wellbeing. Risks to health and wellbeing come from direct impacts of extreme weather events, and from indirect impacts through effects on air, water, food and ecosystems. Responding to these challenges offers an opportunity to protect and promote health by enhancing environmental amenities, and building adaptive capacity and resilience in populations and systems. To develop policy that effectively protects and promotes health in the face of climate change in NSW it is necessary to define the expected impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing in NSW.}, }
@article {pmid30652183, year = {2018}, author = {Capon, A and Corvalan, C}, title = {Climate change and health: global issue, local responses.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841823}, pmid = {30652183}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid30650319, year = {2019}, author = {Solomon, CG and LaRocque, RC}, title = {Climate Change - A Health Emergency.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {380}, number = {3}, pages = {209-211}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp1817067}, pmid = {30650319}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Behavior ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; *Public Health ; Public Opinion ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid30650240, year = {2019}, author = {Moat, J and Gole, TW and Davis, AP}, title = {Least concern to endangered: Applying climate change projections profoundly influences the extinction risk assessment for wild Arabica coffee.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {390-403}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14341}, pmid = {30650240}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Coffea/*physiology ; *Endangered Species ; *Extinction, Biological ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Dispersal ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. Published studies show that climate change is projected to have a substantial negative influence on the current suitable growing areas for indigenous Arabica in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Here we use all available future projections for the species based on multiple general circulation models (GCMs), emission scenarios, and migration scenarios, to predict changes in Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), and population numbers for wild Arabica coffee. Under climate change our results show that population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. EOO and AOO are projected to decline by around 30% in many cases. Furthermore, present-day models compared to the near future (2038), show a reduction for EOO of over 40% (with a few cases over 50%), although EOO should be treated with caution due to its sensitivity to outlying occurrences. When applying these metrics to extinction risk, we show that the determination of generation length is critical. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (not threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteria.}, }
@article {pmid30649928, year = {2019}, author = {Silverman, GS}, title = {Systematic Lack of Educational Preparation in Addressing Climate Change as a Major Public Health Challenge.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {109}, number = {2}, pages = {242-243}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2018.304818}, pmid = {30649928}, issn = {1541-0048}, }
@article {pmid30649565, year = {2019}, author = {Arco Molina, JG and Helle, G and Hadad, MA and Roig, FA}, title = {Variations in the intrinsic water-use efficiency of north Patagonian forests under a present climate change scenario: tree age, site conditions and long-term environmental effects.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpy144}, pmid = {30649565}, issn = {1758-4469}, abstract = {The carbon isotope composition (δ13C) in tree rings were used to derive the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of Araucaria araucana trees of northern Patagonia along a strong precipitation gradient. It is well known that climatic and ontogenetic factors affect growth performance of this species but little is known about their influence in the physiological responses, as iWUE. Thus, the main objective of this study was to assess the physiological reactions of young and adult trees from two open xeric and two moderately dense mesic A. araucana forests to the increases in atmospheric CO2 (Ca) and air temperature during the 20th century, and to relate these responses with radial tree growth. The results indicated that the iWUE and the intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) increased 33% and 32% in average during the last century, respectively, but carbon isotope discrimination (∆13C) was more variable between sites and age classes. Trees from xeric sites presented greater iWUE and lower ∆13C and Ci values than those from mesic sites. In general, iWUE was strongly related with Ca and was significantly affected by mean summer maximum temperature. ∆13C from mesic sites seemed to be mainly affected by summer maximum temperature, while trees from xeric conditions did not show any influence. Tree age also presented a significant effect on iWUE. Adult trees showed higher iWUE values than young trees, indicating an incidence of the tree age and/or height, mainly in closed mesic forests. Moreover, some trees presented positive relationships between iWUE and radial tree growth, while others presented negative or no relationships, indicating that other factors may negatively influence tree growth. Broadly, the results demonstrate the incidence of climatic, environmental and ontogenetic variability in the tree responses; however, more studies are needed to better understand which forests will be more affected by actual and future climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid30648210, year = {2019}, author = {Heshmati, I and Khorasani, N and Shams-Esfandabad, B and Riazi, B}, title = {Forthcoming risk of Prosopis juliflora global invasion triggered by climate change: implications for environmental monitoring and risk assessment.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {2}, pages = {72}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-018-7154-9}, pmid = {30648210}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Middle East ; Prosopis/*physiology ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Climate is a determinant factor in species distribution and climate change will affect the species abilities to occupy geographic regions. Prosopis juliflora is one of the most problematic invasive species and its biological invasion causes various negative effects in tropical, arid, and semi-arid regions of the world. As eradication efforts subsequent to the establishment of an alien invasive species are costly and time-consuming, assessing patterns of the introduction of an invasive species to new regions is among the most cost-effective means of monitoring and management of natural ecosystems. In this study by using the concept of species distribution modeling (SDM) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method, the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of P. juliflora has been assessed at a global scale. Bioclimatic variables in current condition and 2050 regarding two global circulation models (GCM) and two climate change scenarios were considered as explanatory variables. Our results showed that annual mean temperature (BIO1), annual precipitation (BIO12), and temperature mean diurnal range (BIO2) represented more than 87% of the variations in the model, and with an AUC of 0.854 and TSS of 0.51, the model showed a good predictive performance. Our results indicate that on a global scale, suitable ranges for P. juliflora increase across all the GCM and RCP scenarios. In a global scale, Mediterranean Basin, Middle East, and North America are regions with the highest risk of range expansion in the future. Regarding the negative impacts of P. juliflora on structure and function of natural habitats in the invaded areas, findings of this study could be considered as a warning appliance for the environmental monitoring of the regions highly sensitive to the global invasion of the species. We suggest that assessing impacts of climate change on the global distribution of the invasive species could be used as an efficient tool to implement broad-scale and priority-setting monitoring programs in natural ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30647435, year = {2019}, author = {Fadrique, B and Báez, S and Duque, Á and Malizia, A and Blundo, C and Carilla, J and Osinaga-Acosta, O and Malizia, L and Silman, M and Farfán-Ríos, W and Malhi, Y and Young, KR and Francisco, CC and Homeier, J and Peralvo, M and Pinto, E and Jadan, O and Aguirre, N and Aguirre, Z and Feeley, KJ}, title = {Author Correction: Widespread but heterogeneous responses of Andean forests to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {565}, number = {7741}, pages = {E10}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0862-z}, pmid = {30647435}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {In Fig. 2 of this Article, the positive part of the y axis scale should read 0, 0.02, 0.04 instead of 0, 0.04, 0.02. This has been corrected online.}, }
@article {pmid30644447, year = {2019}, author = {Popkin, G}, title = {How much can forests fight climate change?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {565}, number = {7739}, pages = {280-282}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00122-z}, pmid = {30644447}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30642975, year = {2019}, author = {Bruine de Bruin, W and Morgan, MG}, title = {Reflections on an interdisciplinary collaboration to inform public understanding of climate change, mitigation, and impacts.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1803726115}, pmid = {30642975}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {We describe two interdisciplinary projects in which natural scientists and engineers, as well as psychologists and other behavioral scientists, worked together to better communicate about climate change, including mitigation and impacts. One project focused on understanding and informing public perceptions of an emerging technology to capture and sequester carbon dioxide from coal-fired power plants, as well as other low-carbon electricity-generation technologies. A second project focused on public understanding about carbon dioxide's residence time in the atmosphere. In both projects, we applied the mental-models approach, which aims to design effective communications by using insights from interdisciplinary teams of experts and mental models elicited from intended audience members. In addition to summarizing our findings, we discuss the process of interdisciplinary collaboration that we pursued in framing and completing both projects. We conclude by describing what we think we have learned about the conditions that supported our ongoing interdisciplinary collaborations.}, }
@article {pmid30641382, year = {2019}, author = {Rolo, V and Moreno, G}, title = {Shrub encroachment and climate change increase the exposure to drought of Mediterranean wood-pastures.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {550-558}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.029}, pmid = {30641382}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Forests ; Grassland ; Models, Theoretical ; Soil/chemistry ; Spain ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Pastures and wood-pastures, livestock grazing systems where scattered trees and shrubs co-occur, are essential for global food supply. The grazing value of these systems, which is closely related to soil moisture, is increasingly threatened by changes in climate variability and vegetation structure, mainly by shrub encroachment. However, it remains relatively unexplored to what extent the concurrent effect of climate change and shrub encroachment will affect the exposure to drought stress of Mediterranean wood-pastures - defined as a period where soil water availability drops below 40%. Here we combined soil moisture measurements and a process-based water balance model to assess the effect of shrubs, a shallow- and a deep-rooted, on soil moisture under current (2009-2012) and future weather (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Soil moisture was measured and predicted in six sites, three for each type of shrub, where two adjacent plots were selected, a control and an encroached plot. During 2009-2012, encroached plots had more extended droughts (29 and 48 days longer in sites encroached with shallow- and deep-rooted shrubs, respectively) and higher usage of deep water (~30%) than control plots. Under future climatic projections, our results show a consistent increase in the duration, an earlier onset of drought and higher reliance on shallow water with time, particularly under the worst climatic scenario. Encroached plots showed higher inter-annual variability than control plots, particularly in plots encroached with the deep-rooted shrub. Our results indicate that the presence of shrubs magnify the effect of climate. This suggests a likely increase in the exposure of Mediterranean wood-pastures to drought if processes of shrub encroachment persist in a context of climatic changes where earlier and more prolonged droughts will become more frequent.}, }
@article {pmid30640092, year = {2019}, author = {Zheng, K and Wei, JZ and Pei, JY and Cheng, H and Zhang, XL and Huang, FQ and Li, FM and Ye, JS}, title = {Impacts of climate change and human activities on grassland vegetation variation in the Chinese Loess Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {236-244}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.022}, pmid = {30640092}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Grassland ; *Human Activities ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {China initiated the &quot;Grain for Green Project&quot; in 1999 to mitigate soil erosion. The vegetation cover of the Chinese Loess Plateau, one of the most erosive regions in the world, has been greatly increased. However, studies on quantitatively investigating the climate change and human activities on vegetation coverage change were rare. In this study, spatio-temporal changes in vegetation coverage were investigated using MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data over 2000-2016. And a new method was introduced using Net Primary Productivity (NPP) model and relationship between NPP and NDVI to quantitatively and spatially distinguish the NDVI affected by climate change and human activities. Results showed that mean NDVI value over 2009-2016 were 14.46% greater than that over 2000-2007. In order to quantify the contribution of climate change and human activities to vegetation change, an NPP model suitable for the grassland of the Chinese Loess Plateau was identified using biomass observations from field survey and literature. The NDVI affected by climate change (NDVIclimate) was estimated by the NPP model and the relationship between NPP and NDVI. And the NDVI affected by human activities (NDVIhuman) was calculated by actual NDVI minus NDVIclimate. Comparison of the two stages showed that human activities and climate change contributed 42.35% and 57.65% respectively to the ΔNDVI on grassland in the Loess Plateau. After analysis of numerous NDVIhuman related factors, the slopes restored by the &quot;Grain for Green Project&quot; was considered the main influence factor of human activities.}, }
@article {pmid30640086, year = {2019}, author = {Li, G and Sun, S and Han, J and Yan, J and Liu, W and Wei, Y and Lu, N and Sun, Y}, title = {Impacts of Chinese Grain for Green program and climate change on vegetation in the Loess Plateau during 1982-2015.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {177-187}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.028}, pmid = {30640086}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Biota ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Grassland ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Remote sensing based vegetation index provides a practical method for the monitoring of vegetation dynamics at regional and global scales. Here, using a long-term remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset, we quantified the vegetation changes in the Loess Plateau (LP) over the last three decades (1982-2015), which includes the period before the Chinese&quot;Grain for Green Program&quot;(GGP) was launched (1982-1999), and the period after the GGP (1999-2015). The correlations between the NDVI and four climate related variables, i.e., precipitation, temperature, root-soil moisture (RSM), and a drought proxy-standardized evapotranspiration deficit index (SEDI), were also examined. The results indicated that, (i) the GGP strongly changed the vegetation in the LP. The growing-season mean NDVI (GSM-NDVI) and the annual mean NDVI (AM-NDVI) decreased slightly before the GGP launched in 1999, with slopes of -3.38×10-3 and-8.00×10-4year-1, respectively. However, they showed slight and significant (p<0.05) increases after the GGP, with slopes of 4.75×10-3 and 2.32×10-3year-1, respectively. (ii) Climate change (i.e., warming and drying) resulted in adverse effects on vegetation in the LP during the period before the GGP. However, the observed changes (i.e., wetting and reduced drought) exerted positive effects on the vegetation during the period after the GGP. (iii) Inter-annual variations of spatially averaged NDVI over the LP were primarily determined by RSM rather than any other climate related variables. In the southeastern LP, the inter-annual variation of GSM-NDVI was mainly determined by precipitation and SEDI, while the inter-annual variation of AM-NDVI was mainly caused by SEDI and RSM. Inter-annual variations of both GSM-NDVI and AM-NDVI were mainly determined by SEDI and RSM in the northwestern LP, and by temperature in the southwestern LP.}, }
@article {pmid30639109, year = {2019}, author = {Samplonius, JM and Both, C}, title = {Climate Change May Affect Fatal Competition between Two Bird Species.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {327-331.e2}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2018.11.063}, pmid = {30639109}, issn = {1879-0445}, abstract = {Climate warming has altered phenologies of many taxa [1, 2], but the extent differs vastly between [3, 4] and within trophic levels [5-7]. Differential adjustment to climate warming within trophic levels may affect coexistence of competing species, because relative phenologies alter facilitative and competitive outcomes [8, 9], but evidence for this is scant [10, 11]. Here, we report on two mechanisms through which climate change may affect fatal interactions between two sympatric passerines, the resident great tit Parus major and the migratory pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, competing for nest sites. Spring temperature more strongly affected breeding phenology of tits than flycatchers, and tits killed more flycatchers when flycatcher arrival coincided with peak laying in the tits. Ongoing climate change may diminish this fatal competition if great tit and flycatcher phenologies diverge. However, great tit density increased after warm winters, and flycatcher mortality was elevated when tit densities were higher. Consequently, flycatcher males in synchronous and high-tit-density years suffered mortality by great tits of up to 8.9%. Interestingly, we found no population consequences of fatal competition, suggesting that mortality predominantly happened among surplus males. Indeed, late-arriving males are less likely to find a partner [12], and here we show that such late arrivers are more likely to die from competition with great tits. We conclude that our breeding population is buffered against detrimental effects of competition. Nevertheless, we expect that if buffers are diminished, population consequences of interspecific competition may become apparent, especially after warm winters that are benign to resident species. VIDEO ABSTRACT.}, }
@article {pmid30637722, year = {2019}, author = {Verheyen, J and Stoks, R}, title = {Temperature variation makes an ectotherm more sensitive to global warming unless thermal evolution occurs.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {88}, number = {4}, pages = {624-636}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12946}, pmid = {30637722}, issn = {1365-2656}, abstract = {To assess long-term impacts of global warming on species, there is growing interest in latitudinal intraspecific patterns in thermal adaptation. Yet, while both mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations (DTFs) are expected to increase under global warming, latitudinal differences in the effects of DTFs have not been documented. We tested whether low-latitude populations of an ectotherm deal better with greater DTF than high-latitude populations, especially at a high mean temperature close to the optimal temperature for growth where DTF causes exposure to extreme high temperatures. We evaluated the impact of DTFs when assessing the effect of gradual thermal evolution at the high latitude with a space-for-time substitution. We compared effects of both mean temperatures (20 and 24°C) and DTFs (constant = 0°C, low = 5°C and high = 10°C) on growth rates between low-latitude and high-latitude populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans in a common-garden experiment. DTFs, if anything, reduced growth and were generally stressful as indicated by reductions in body condition, antioxidant defence and metabolic rate, and increases in oxidative damage. Most negative effects of DTFs were only present at a mean of 24°C when too high temperatures were reached during a daily cycle. Notably, while 4°C warming was beneficial in terms of growth rate at both latitudes at a constant temperature regime, this changed in a negative effect at high DTF. Moreover, this modulating effect of the mean temperature by DTF differed between latitudes indicating local thermal adaptation. While 4°C warming at low DTF still caused faster growth in low-latitude larvae, it already slowed growth in high-latitude larvae. This supports the emerging insight that warming would increase growth in high-latitude larvae in the absence of DTF, yet would decrease growth in the more realistic scenarios with DTF. In contrast, a space-for-time substitution approach suggested that under gradual thermal evolution, the evolved high-latitude larvae would no longer suffer a growth reduction in the presence of DTF. Our study provided important proof-of-principle that jointly integrating gradual thermal evolution and the expected increase in DTF generates opposing predictions of effects of global warming on this ectotherm.}, }
@article {pmid30636278, year = {2019}, author = {Davies, WJ}, title = {Multiple temperature effects on phenology and body size in wild butterflies predict a complex response to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {100}, number = {4}, pages = {e02612}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2612}, pmid = {30636278}, issn = {1939-9170}, abstract = {Temperature-induced alterations in phenology and body size are the cumulative outcome of sequential effects impacting development and are universal responses to climate change. Most studies have so far focused on phenological responses to warming in multiple taxa across space and time, or the ontogenetic effects of temperature in the laboratory. I here complement this work by investigating shifts in phenology and body size (wing length) attributable to temperature changes operating over the entire lifespan of the univoltine orange-tip butterfly Anthocharis cardamines in a single wild population over 14 generations. Phenology was affected by temperatures during three discrete periods in the year prior to emergence, corresponding to late larval/early pupal life, the onset of the chilling period required to break pupal diapause, and postdiapause pupal development prior to eclosion. Higher temperatures during late larval/early pupal life and postdiapause pupal development advanced the subsequent emergence of the butterflies, whereas higher temperatures at the onset of the chilling period retarded it. The synchronization of the butterflies' emergence schedule increased when pupae were exposed to milder midwinter temperatures. Wing length increased with warmer temperatures at distinct points in the early and midpupal periods; such direct effects of temperature on body size could complement season length effects in explaining the reversal of the temperature-size rule in univoltine insects. The periods during which temperature affected the phenology of the butterfly only partially overlapped those affecting the first flowering date of its host plants lady's smock (Cardamine pratensis) and garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata). Observed thermal effects on flowering time, emergence timing, and emergence synchronization indicate that phenological convergence as well as phenological mismatching could affect host-plant availability and diet breadth; thermal effects on body size imply that important population-level processes could be impacted through correlated changes in fecundity and dispersal rate. In general, the combined effects of phenological and ontogenetic responses to temperature changes across the whole lifespan will likely be important in modeling the demographic responses of interacting species to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30635682, year = {2019}, author = {Xu, Y and Bosch, DJ and Wagena, MB and Collick, AS and Easton, ZM}, title = {Meeting Water Quality Goals by Spatial Targeting of Best Management Practices under Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {63}, number = {2}, pages = {173-184}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-018-01133-8}, pmid = {30635682}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {CBET-1360280//National Science Foundation/ ; VA-135911//National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; }, abstract = {Agricultural production is a major source of nonpoint source pollution contributing 44% of total nitrogen (N) discharged to the Chesapeake Bay. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) established the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program to control this problem. For the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the TMDL program requires that nitrogen loadings be reduced by 25% by 2025. Climate change may affect the cost of achieving such reductions. Thus, it is necessary to develop cost-effective strategies to meet water quality goals under climate change. We investigate landscape targeting of best management practices (BMPs) based on topographic index (TI) to determine how targeting would affect costs of meeting N loading goals for Mahantango watershed, PA. We use the results from two climate models, CRCM and WRFG, and the mean of the ensemble of seven climate models (Ensemble Mean) to estimate expected climate changes and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area (SWAT-VSA) model to predict crop yields and N export. Costs of targeting and uniform placement of BMPs across the entire study area (423 ha) were compared under historical and future climate scenarios. Targeting BMP placement based on TI classes reduces costs for achieving water quality goals relative to uniform placement strategies under historical and future conditions. Compared with uniform placement, targeting methods reduce costs by 30, 34, and 27% under historical climate as estimated by the Ensemble Mean, CRCM and WRFG, respectively, and by 37, 43, and 33% under the corresponding estimates of future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30635138, year = {2019}, author = {Walsh, BS and Parratt, SR and Hoffmann, AA and Atkinson, D and Snook, RR and Bretman, A and Price, TAR}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {34}, number = {3}, pages = {249-259}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2018.12.002}, pmid = {30635138}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {Rising global temperatures are threatening biodiversity. Studies on the impact of temperature on natural populations usually use lethal or viability thresholds, termed the 'critical thermal limit' (CTL). However, this overlooks important sublethal impacts of temperature that could affect species' persistence. Here we discuss a critical but overlooked trait: fertility, which can deteriorate at temperatures less severe than an organism's lethal limit. We argue that studies examining the ecological and evolutionary impacts of climate change should consider the 'thermal fertility limit' (TFL) of species; we propose that a framework for the design of TFL studies across taxa be developed. Given the importance of fertility for population persistence, understanding how climate change affects TFLs is vital for the assessment of future biodiversity impacts.}, }
@article {pmid30634954, year = {2019}, author = {Shezi, B and Mathee, A and Siziba, W and Street, RA and Naicker, N and Kunene, Z and Wright, CY}, title = {Environmental health practitioners potentially play a key role in helping communities adapt to climate change.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {54}, doi = {10.1186/s12889-018-6378-5}, pmid = {30634954}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Academies and Institutes ; Adult ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; Budgets ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Demography ; *Environmental Health ; Female ; Health Personnel/education ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Policy ; *Population Health ; Poverty ; Residence Characteristics ; South Africa ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Vulnerable population groups in South Africa, especially those living in poverty, young children, women, the elderly and people with pre-existing diseases, are susceptible to new or exacerbated health threats resulting from climate change. Environmental Health Practitioners (EHPs) can play an important role in helping communities adapt to climate change health impacts, however, effective coordination of this requires further understanding of their roles in implementing climate change-related adaptation actions in communities.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional survey using convenience sampling was undertaken at the January 2017 conference for EHPs hosted by the South African Institute of Environmental Health in Cape Town. All EHPs who attended the conference were invited to complete a study questionnaire that requested information on participant demographics, as well as climate change related-knowledge, practices and perceptions.<br><br>RESULTS: Majority of participating EHPs (n = 48; 72.8%) had received formal or informal training on climate change and health. Thirty-nine percent of EHPs indicated that they had a climate change and health-related committee / working group in their department, a policy or strategy (41.0%) and budget allocated for climate change and health-related work (51.5%). A total of 33.3% had participated in climate change-related projects. Majority (62.2%) of EHPs believed that they should play a supportive role in addressing climate change while 37.8% believed that EHPs should play a leading role.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Recognising the need for raising awareness about climate change adaptation as well as implementing appropriate interventions to combat climate-related ill health effects, especially among vulnerable groups, EHPs are well-placed to adopt significant roles in helping communities to adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30632035, year = {2019}, author = {Ullah, A and Ahmad, I and Ahmad, A and Khaliq, T and Saeed, U and M Habib-Ur-Rahman,  and Hussain, J and Ullah, S and Hoogenboom, G}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on pearl millet under arid and semi-arid environments using CSM-CERES-Millet model.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {6745-6757}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-3925-7}, pmid = {30632035}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Climate change adversely affects food security all over the world, especially in developing countries where the increasing population is confronting food insecurity and malnutrition. Crop models can assist stakeholders for assessment of climate change in current and future agricultural production systems. The aim of this study was to use of system analysis approach through CSM-CERES-Millet model to quantify climate change and its impact on pearl millet under arid and semi-arid climatic conditions of Punjab, Pakistan. Calibration and evaluation of CERES-Millet were performed with the field observations for pearl millet hybrid 86M86. Mid-century (2040-2069) climate change scenarios for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were generated based on an ensemble of selected five general circulation models (GCMs). The model was calibrated with optimum treatment (15-cm plant spacing and 200 kg N ha-1) using field observations on phenology, growth and grain yield. Thereafter, pearl millet cultivar was evaluated with remaining treatments of plant spacing and nitrogen during 2015 and 2016 in Faisalabad and Layyah. The CERES-Millet model was calibrated very well and predicted the grain yield with 1.14% error. Model valuation results showed that there was a close agreement between the observed and simulated values of grain yield with RMSE ranging from 172 to 193 kg ha-1. The results of future climate scenarios revealed that there would be an increase in Tmin (2.8 °C and 2.9 °C, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment) and Tmax (2.5 °C and 2.7 °C, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment) under RCP4.5. For RCP8.5, there would be an increase of 4 °C in Tmin for the semi-arid and arid environment and an increase of 3.7 °C and 3.9 °C in Tmax, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment. The impacts of climate changes showed that pearl millet yield would be reduced by 7 to 10% under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in Faisalabad and 10 to 13% in Layyah under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for mid-century. So, CSM-CERES-Millet is a useful tool in assessing the climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid30631162, year = {2019}, author = {Searchinger, TD and Wirsenius, S and Beringer, T and Dumas, P}, title = {Publisher Correction: Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {565}, number = {7740}, pages = {E9}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0863-y}, pmid = {30631162}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {In this Letter, the PANGAEA repository was referred to incorrectly in the 'Code availability' and 'Data availability' sections of Methods: the link should be https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.893761 instead of https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.877266 . In addition, the sentence, &quot;However, the more commonly used system 2 (75 kg ha-1 yr-1) generates roughly the same benefits as system 1…&quot; should read, &quot;However, the more commonly used system 2 (75 kg ha-1 yr-1) generates roughly the same benefits as sugarcane ethanol…&quot; These errors have been corrected in the online versions of the Letter.}, }
@article {pmid30630932, year = {2019}, author = {Lézine, AM and Izumi, K and Kageyama, M and Achoundong, G}, title = {A 90,000-year record of Afromontane forest responses to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {363}, number = {6423}, pages = {177-181}, doi = {10.1126/science.aav6821}, pmid = {30630932}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Pollen records from African highlands are scarce; hence, the paleoecology of the Afromontane forest and its responses to glacial cycles are poorly known. Lake Bambili (Cameroon) provides a record of vegetation changes in the tropical mountains of Africa over the past 90,000 years, with high temporal resolution. Pollen data and biome reconstructions show a diverging response of forests to climate changes; the upper tree line was extremely unstable, shifting substantially in response to glacial-interglacial climate alternation, whereas the transition between the montane and lowland forests remained remarkably stable. Such ecological instability may have had a critical influence on species richness in the Afromontane forests.}, }
@article {pmid30629690, year = {2019}, author = {Blennow, K and Persson, E and Persson, J}, title = {Are values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place the values most vulnerable to climate change?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e0210426}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0210426}, pmid = {30629690}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place have sometimes been downplayed in the climate change discourse. However, they have been suggested to be not only important to citizens but the values most vulnerable to climate change. Here we test four empirical consequences of the suggestion: (i) at least 50% of the locations citizens' consider to be the most important locations in their municipality are chosen because they represent these values, (ii) locations representing these values have a high probability of being damaged by climate change induced sea level rise, (iii) citizens for which these values are particularly strongly held less strongly believe in the local effects of climate change, and (iv) citizens for which these values are particularly strongly held less strongly believe that they have experienced the effects of climate change. The tests were made using survey data collected in 2014 from 326 citizens owning property in Höganäs municipality, Sweden, and included values elicited using a new methodology separating instrumental values from end values, and using the former (which strictly speaking should be seen as estimates of usefulness rather than as aims in themselves) as stepping stones to pinpoint the latter, that represent the true interests of the respondents. The results provide the first evidence that, albeit frequent, values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place are not the values most vulnerable to climate change. This in turn indicates a need to further investigate the vulnerability of these values to climate change, using a methodology that clearly distinguishes between instrumental and end values.}, }
@article {pmid30627998, year = {2019}, author = {Gul, F and Jan, D and Ashfaq, M}, title = {Assessing the socio-economic impact of climate change on wheat production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {6576-6585}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-018-04109-7}, pmid = {30627998}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {This study involves the climate change impact assessment of wheat producers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. An extensive farm survey of 150 farms was designed. From study area, three districts, namely, Chitral, D.I. Khan, and Peshawar, were selected through multistage sampling process. Yield simulation from Crop model DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro Technology Transfer) was used for socio-economic impact assessment. Future climate scenarios were generated by selecting five GCMs from latest CMIP5 family with two RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, at two carbon concentrations of 499 ppm and 571 ppm, respectively. Yield simulations were analyzed for each GCM. Results of crop model revealed that wheat yield will increase in district Chitral, while in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, yields would be reduced due to climate change. For socio-economic impact assessment, TOA-MD (Trade-Off Analysis for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment) version 6 was used. Climate change impacts on poverty, net farm returns, and per capita income were calculated for different scenarios. The analysis was carried out on per-farm basis. The economic model results revealed that climate change has negative impact on wheat producers in D.I. Khan and Peshawar while making wheat producers better off in Chitral. The number of losers ranged from 54 to 66.21% and 50 to 61.99% in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, respectively. Losers are the farmers who would be economically worse off under perturbed climate. With current climate, the observed poverty rate would be 34 to 49 in D.I. Khan while 21.26 to 34.03 in Peshawar. The study recommended need for adaptation strategies to overcome the vulnerabilities of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30625666, year = {2019}, author = {Zhao, CS and Yang, Y and Yang, ST and Xiang, H and Zhang, Y and Wang, ZY and Chen, X and Mitrovic, SM}, title = {Predicting future river health in a minimally influenced mountainous area under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {656}, number = {}, pages = {1373-1385}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.430}, pmid = {30625666}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {It has been shown that climate change impacts the overall health of a river's ecosystem. Although predicting river health under climate change would be useful for stakeholders to adapt to the change and better conserve river health, little research on this topic exists. This paper presents a methodology predicting river health under different climate change scenarios. First, a multi-source, distributed, time-variant gain hydrological model (MS-DTVGM) was used to predict the runoff from a mountainous river in eastern China using the data from three existing IPCC5 climate change models (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.4). Next, a model was developed to predict the river's water quality under these scenarios. Finally, a multidimensional response model utilizing hydrology, water quality, and biology was used to predict the river's biological status and ascertain the impact of climate change on its overall health. The river is in a mountainous area near Jinan City, one of China's first &quot;pilot&quot; cities recognized as a &quot;healthy water ecological community.&quot; Our results predict that the overall health of the Yufu River, which is minimally influenced by human activities, will improve by 2030 due to the increased river flow due to an increase in rainfall frequency and subsequent peak runoff. However, the total nitrogen concentration is predicted to increase, which is a potential eutrophication risk. Therefore, effective control of nitrogen pollutants entering the river will be necessary. The increase in flow velocity (the annual average increase is ~0.5 m/s) is favorable for fish reproduction. Our methods and results will provide scientific guidance for policy makers and river managers and will help people to better understand how global climate change impacts river health.}, }
@article {pmid30621785, year = {2019}, author = {Hertig, E}, title = {Distribution of Anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {18}, doi = {10.1186/s13071-018-3278-6}, pmid = {30621785}, issn = {1756-3305}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Anopheles/parasitology/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Mediterranean Region/epidemiology ; Mosquito Vectors/parasitology/*physiology ; Regression Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In the scope of climate change the possible recurrence and/or expansion of vector-borne diseases poses a major concern. The occurrence of vector competent Anopheles species as well as favorable climatic conditions may lead to the re-emergence of autochthonous malaria in Europe and the Mediterranean area. However, high-resolution assessments of possible changes of Anopheles vector distributions and of potential malaria transmission stability in the European-Mediterranean area under changing climatic conditions during the course of the 21st century are not available yet.<br><br>METHODS: Boosted Regression Trees are applied to relate climate variables and land cover classes to vector occurrences. Changes in future vector distributions and potential malaria transmission stability due to climate change are assessed using state-of-the art regional climate model simulations.<br><br>RESULTS: Distinct changes in the distributions of the dominant vectors of human malaria are to be expected under climate change. In general, temperature and precipitation changes will lead to a northward spread of the occurrences of Anopheles vectors. Yet, for some Mediterranean areas, occurrence probabilities may decline.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Potential malaria transmission stability is increased in areas where the climatic changes favor vector occurrences as well as significantly impact the vectorial capacity. As a result, vector stability shows the highest increases between historical and future periods for the southern and south-eastern European areas. Anopheles atroparvus, the dominant vector in large parts of Europe, might play an important role with respect to changes of the potential transmission stability.}, }
@article {pmid30620924, year = {2019}, author = {Wu, C and Chen, Y and Peng, C and Li, Z and Hong, X}, title = {Modeling and estimating aboveground biomass of Dacrydium pierrei in China using machine learning with climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {234}, number = {}, pages = {167-179}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.12.090}, pmid = {30620924}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Accurate estimations of the aboveground biomass (AGB) of rare and endangered species are particularly important for protecting forest ecosystems and endangered species and for providing useful information to analyze the influence of past and future climate change on forest AGB. We investigated the feasibility of using three developed and two widely used models, including a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), a group method of data handling (GMDH), an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), an artificial neural network (ANN) and a support vector machine (SVM), to estimate the AGB of Dacrydium pierrei (D. pierrei) in natural forests of China. The results showed that these models could explain the changes in the AGB of the D. pierrei using a limited amount of meteorological data. The GRNN and ANN models are superior to the other models for estimating the AGB of D. pierrei. The GMDH model consistently produced comparatively poor estimates of the AGB. Three climate scenarios, including the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, were compared with the climate situation of 2013-2017. Under these scenarios, the AGB of D. pierrei females with the same diameter at breast height (DBH) would increase by 13.0 ± 31.4% (mean ± standard deviation), 16.6 ± 30.7%, and 18.5 ± 30.9% during 2041-2060 and 15.6 ± 32.1%, 21.2 ± 33.2%, and 24.8 ± 32.7% during 2061-2080; the AGB of males would increase by 16.3 ± 32.3%, 21.7 ± 32.5%, and 22.9 ± 32.6% during 2041-2060 and 22.3 ± 30.8%, 27.2 ± 31.8%, and 30.1 ± 34.4% during 2061-2080. The R2 values of all models range from 0.82 to 0.95. In conclusion, this study suggests that these advanced models are recommended to estimate the AGB of forests, and the AGB of forests would increase in 2041-2080 under future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30619552, year = {2018}, author = {Buckley, LB and Khaliq, I and Swanson, DL and Hof, C}, title = {Does metabolism constrain bird and mammal ranges and predict shifts in response to climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {24}, pages = {12375-12385}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4537}, pmid = {30619552}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Mechanistic approaches for predicting the ranges of endotherms are needed to forecast their responses to environmental change. We test whether physiological constraints on maximum metabolic rate and the factor by which endotherms can elevate their metabolism (metabolic expansibility) influence cold range limits for mammal and bird species. We examine metabolic expansibility at the cold range boundary (MECRB) and whether species' traits can predict variability in MECRB and then use MECRB as an initial approach to project range shifts for 210 mammal and 61 bird species. We find evidence for metabolic constraints: the distributions of metabolic expansibility at the cold range boundary peak at similar values for birds (2.7) and mammals (3.2). The right skewed distributions suggest some species have adapted to elevate or evade metabolic constraints. Mammals exhibit greater skew than birds, consistent with their diverse thermoregulatory adaptations and behaviors. Mammal and bird species that are small and occupy low trophic levels exhibit high levels of MECRB. Mammals with high MECRB tend to hibernate or use torpor. Predicted metabolic rates at the cold range boundaries represent large energetic expenditures (>50% of maximum metabolic rates). We project species to shift their cold range boundaries poleward by an average of 3.9° latitude by 2070 if metabolic constraints remain constant. Our analysis suggests that metabolic constraints provide a viable mechanism for initial projections of the cold range boundaries for endotherms. However, errors and approximations in estimating metabolic constraints (e.g., acclimation responses) and evasion of these constraints (e.g., torpor/hibernation, microclimate selection) highlight the need for more detailed, taxa-specific mechanistic models. Even coarse considerations of metabolism will likely lead to improved predictions over exclusively considering thermal tolerance for endotherms.}, }
@article {pmid30614147, year = {2019}, author = {Sun, Y and Xie, S and Zhao, S}, title = {Valuing urban green spaces in mitigating climate change: A city-wide estimate of aboveground carbon stored in urban green spaces of China's Capital.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14566}, pmid = {30614147}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2017YFC0503901//National key R&amp;D plan of China Grant/ ; 41571079//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41590843//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41771093//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Urban green spaces provide manifold environmental benefits and promote human well-being. Unfortunately, these services are largely undervalued, and the potential of urban areas themselves to mitigate future climate change has received little attention. In this study, we quantified and mapped city-wide aboveground carbon storage of urban green spaces in China's capital, Beijing, using field survey data of diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height from 326 field survey plots, combined with satellite-derived vegetation index at a fine resolution of 6 m. We estimated the total amount of carbon stored in the urban green spaces to be 956.3 Gg (1 Gg = 109 g) in 2014. There existed great spatial heterogeneity in vegetation carbon density varying from 0 to 68.1 Mg C ha-1 , with an average density of 7.8 Mg C ha-1 . As expected, carbon density tended to decrease with urban development intensity (UDI). Likely being affected by vegetation cover proportion and configuration of green space patches, large differences were presented between the 95th and 5th quantile carbon density for each UDI bin, showing great potential for carbon sequestration. However, the interquartile range of carbon density narrowed drastically when UDI reached 60%, signifying a threshold for greatly reduced carbon sequestration potentials for higher UDI. These findings suggested that urban green spaces have great potential to make contribution to mitigating against future climate change if we plan and design urban green spaces following the trajectory of high carbon density, but we should be aware that such potential will be very limited when the urban development reaches certain intensity threshold.}, }
@article {pmid30614129, year = {2019}, author = {Spalink, D and MacKay, R and Sytsma, KJ}, title = {Phylogeography, population genetics and distribution modelling reveal vulnerability of Scirpus longii (Cyperaceae) and the Atlantic Coastal Plain Flora to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/mec.15006}, pmid = {30614129}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {DDIG 1311153//National Science Foundation/ ; //BSA and ASPT graduate student research awards/ ; //UW Department of Botany Flora Aeterna Fellowship/ ; //Davis research grant/ ; //Nova Scotia Species at Risk Conservation Fund/ ; //Texas A&amp;M University/ ; //Mount Saint Vincent University/ ; }, abstract = {A proactive approach to conservation must be predictive, anticipating how habitats will change and which species are likely to decline or prosper. We use composite species distribution modelling to identify suitable habitats for 18 members of the North American Atlantic Coastal Plain Flora (ACPF) since the Last Glacial Maximum and project these into the future. We then use Scirpus longii (Cyperaceae), a globally imperiled ACPF sedge with many of the characteristics of extinction vulnerability, as a case study. We integrate phylogeographical and population genetic analyses and species distribution modelling to develop a broad view of its current condition and prognosis for conservation. We use genotyping-by-sequencing to characterize the genomes of 142 S. longii individuals from 20 populations distributed throughout its range (New Jersey to Nova Scotia). We measure the distribution of genetic diversity in the species and reconstruct its phylogeographical history using the snapp and rase models. Extant populations of S. longii originated from a single refugium south of the Laurentide ice sheet around 25 ka. The genetic diversity of S. longii is exceedingly low, populations exhibit little genetic structure and the species is slightly inbred. Projected climate scenarios indicate that nearly half of extant populations of S. longii will be exposed to unsuitable climate by 2070. Similar changes in suitable habitat will occur for many other northern ACPF species-centres of diversity will shift northward and Nova Scotia may become the last refuges for those species not extinguished.}, }
@article {pmid30613399, year = {2018}, author = {Cook, CJ and Burness, G and Wilson, CC}, title = {Metabolic rates of embryos and alevin from a cold-adapted salmonid differ with temperature, population and family of origin: implications for coping with climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {cox076}, doi = {10.1093/conphys/cox076}, pmid = {30613399}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Early developmental stages of cold-adapted ectotherms such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) are at higher risk of mortality with increasing water temperatures. To determine the amount of variation present in early life, which may allow for potential adaptation to increasing temperature, we examined the routine metabolic rates (RMR) of wild-origin brook trout embryos and alevins reared at normal (5°C) and elevated (9°C) temperatures. The experiment was structured to examine variation in RMR within and among several levels of biological organization (family, population and ancestral type (native vs. mixed ancestry)). As expected, family and temperature variables were most important for predicting RMR and body mass, although population-level differences also existed when family was excluded for more detailed analysis. Additionally, body mass strongly influenced RMR at all life stages except for eyed embryos. When family identity was removed from the analysis, population became the most significant variable. Variation in RMR and mass within and among populations may indicate existing adaptive potential within and among brook trout populations to respond to predicted warming under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30612331, year = {2019}, author = {Ali, SHB and Shafqat, MN and Eqani, SAMAS and Shah, STA}, title = {Trends of climate change in the upper Indus basin region, Pakistan: implications for cryosphere.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {2}, pages = {51}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-018-7184-3}, pmid = {30612331}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Pakistan ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The Indus River, the lifeline of Pakistan's economy and its tributaries, derives most of water flow from the upper Indus basin comprised of Karakorum, Himalaya, and Hindu Kush mountain ranges, thus making this area important in climate change studies. We analyzed the records of climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity (RH) from two weather stations (Gilgit and Skardu) of upper Indus basin region from 1953 to 2006. To observe the trends of climate change, the selected time was divided into two temporal half periods consisting of 27 years each (1953-1979 and 1980-2006). The overall mean temperature (OMT) was decreased by - 0.137 °C in Gilgit, while an increase of 0.63 °C was observed in Skardu during the later period compared to the previous one. The mean minimum temperature (MMT) was found to decrease while mean maximum temperature (MXT) showed non-significant changes during the summer at both locations. However, there was an evidence of spring and winter warming at both locations due to increase in the MXT. The precipitation data showed large interannual variation at both locations. Significant increases in the morning relative humidity (RH) were observed during summer and autumn months at Skardu and throughout the year at Gilgit, while the evening RH increased during the same seasons at both stations. Significant increase in MXT and OMT during spring and winter months at higher elevation (Skardu) may have serious implications for the deposition and melting of seasonal snowpack with impacts on local livelihoods and river flow.}, }
@article {pmid30610180, year = {2019}, author = {Miller-Rushing, AJ and Gallinat, AS and Primack, RB}, title = {Creative citizen science illuminates complex ecological responses to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {3}, pages = {720-722}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1820266116}, pmid = {30610180}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Biological Mimicry ; Climate Change ; Ecology ; }, }
@article {pmid30609226, year = {2019}, author = {Penteriani, V and Zarzo-Arias, A and Novo-Fernández, A and Bombieri, G and López-Sánchez, CA}, title = {Responses of an endangered brown bear population to climate change based on predictable food resource and shelter alterations.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {1133-1151}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14564}, pmid = {30609226}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {The survival of an increasing number of species is threatened by climate change: 20%-30% of plants and animals seem to be at risk of range shift or extinction if global warming reaches levels projected to occur by the end of this century. Plant range shifts may determine whether animal species that rely on plant availability for food and shelter will be affected by new patterns of plant occupancy and availability. Brown bears in temperate forested habitats mostly forage on plants and it may be expected that climate change will affect the viability of the endangered populations of southern Europe. Here, we assess the potential impact of climate change on seven plants that represent the main food resources and shelter for the endangered population of brown bears in the Cantabrian Mountains (Spain). Our simulations suggest that the geographic range of these plants might be altered under future climate warming, with most bear resources reducing their range. As a consequence, this brown bear population is expected to decline drastically in the next 50 years. Range shifts of brown bear are also expected to displace individuals from mountainous areas towards more humanized ones, where we can expect an increase in conflicts and bear mortality rates. Additional negative effects might include: (a) a tendency to a more carnivorous diet, which would increase conflicts with cattle farmers; (b) limited fat storage before hibernation due to the reduction of oak forests; (c) increased intraspecific competition with other acorn consumers, that is, wild ungulates and free-ranging livestock; and (d) larger displacements between seasons to find main trophic resources. The magnitude of the changes projected by our models emphasizes that conservation practices focused only on bears may not be appropriate and thus we need more dynamic conservation planning aimed at reducing the impact of climate change in forested landscapes.}, }
@article {pmid30608960, year = {2019}, author = {Selm, KR and Peterson, MN and Hess, GR and Beck, SM and McHale, MR}, title = {Educational attainment predicts negative perceptions women have of their own climate change knowledge.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e0210149}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0210149}, pmid = {30608960}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Education may encourage personal and collective responses to climate change, but climate education has proven surprisingly difficult and complex. Self-perception of knowledge and intelligence represent one factor that may impact willingness to learn about climate change. We explored this possibility with a case study in Raleigh, North Carolina in 2015 (n = 200). Our goal was to test how gender and ethnicity influenced perceptions people had of their own climate change knowledge. Survey respondents were asked how strongly they agreed with the statement &quot;I feel knowledgeable about climate change&quot; (1 = strongly disagree, and 5 = strongly agree). Our survey instrument also included demographic questions about race, age, income, gender, and education, as well as respondent's experience with natural disasters and drought. We observed an interaction between education and gender where women's self-perceived knowledge was higher than men among people with low levels of educational attainment, but was higher for men than women among people with high levels of educational attainment. In addition, minority respondents self-reported lower perceived climate change knowledge than white respondents, regardless of educational attainment. This study enhances our understanding of the gender gap in self-perceptions of climate knowledge by suggesting it is contingent on educational attainment. This could be the result of stereotype-threat experienced by women and minorities, and exacerbated by educational systems. Because people who question their knowledge are often more able to learn, particularly in ideologically charged contexts, highly educated women and minorities may be more successful learning about climate change than white men.}, }
@article {pmid30606749, year = {2019}, author = {Weigmann, K}, title = {Fixing carbon: To alleviate climate change, scientists are exploring ways to harness nature's ability to capture CO2 from the atmosphere.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.15252/embr.201847580}, pmid = {30606749}, issn = {1469-3178}, }
@article {pmid30606474, year = {2018}, author = {Tong, MX and Hansen, A and Hanson-Easey, S and Xiang, J and Cameron, S and Liu, Q and Liu, X and Sun, Y and Weinstein, P and Han, GS and Williams, C and Mahmood, A and Bi, P}, title = {Dengue control in the context of climate change: Views from health professionals in different geographic regions of China.}, journal = {Journal of infection and public health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jiph.2018.12.010}, pmid = {30606474}, issn = {1876-035X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue is a significant climate-sensitive disease. Public health professionals play an important role in prevention and control of the disease. This study aimed to explore dengue control and prevention in the context of climate change in China.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 630 public health professionals in 2015. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were performed.<br><br>RESULTS: More than 80% of participants from southwest and central China believed climate change would affect dengue. However, participants from northeast China were less likely to believe so (65%). Sixty-nine percent of participants in Yunnan perceived that dengue had emerged/re-emerged in recent years, compared with 40.6% in Henan and 23.8% in Liaoning. Less than 60% of participants thought current prevention and control programs had been effective. Participants believed mosquitoes in high abundance, imported cases and climate change were main risk factors for dengue in China.<br><br>CONCLUSION: There were varying views of dengue in China. Professionals in areas susceptible to dengue were more likely to be concerned about climate change and dengue. Current prevention and control strategies need to be improved. Providing more information for staff in lower levels of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may help in containing a possible increase of dengue.}, }
@article {pmid30606097, year = {2019}, author = {Bruno, JF and Côté, IM and Toth, LT}, title = {Climate Change, Coral Loss, and the Curious Case of the Parrotfish Paradigm: Why Don't Marine Protected Areas Improve Reef Resilience?.}, journal = {Annual review of marine science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {307-334}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-010318-095300}, pmid = {30606097}, issn = {1941-0611}, abstract = {Scientists have advocated for local interventions, such as creating marine protected areas and implementing fishery restrictions, as ways to mitigate local stressors to limit the effects of climate change on reef-building corals. However, in a literature review, we find little empirical support for the notion of managed resilience. We outline some reasons for why marine protected areas and the protection of herbivorous fish (especially parrotfish) have had little effect on coral resilience. One key explanation is that the impacts of local stressors (e.g., pollution and fishing) are often swamped by the much greater effect of ocean warming on corals. Another is the sheer complexity (including numerous context dependencies) of the five cascading links assumed by the managed-resilience hypothesis. If reefs cannot be saved by local actions alone, then it is time to face reef degradation head-on, by directly addressing anthropogenic climate change-the root cause of global coral decline.}, }
@article {pmid30605957, year = {2019}, author = {Shi, XM}, title = {[Air pollution, climate change and health: from evidence to action].}, journal = {Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine]}, volume = {53}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2019.01.001}, pmid = {30605957}, issn = {0253-9624}, support = {2016YFC0206500//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {The adverse effects of air pollution and climate change on human health have already been a major global environmental issue, and the challenges in China are even more severe. In this issue, titled &quot;Air Pollution Climate, Change and Health&quot; , we present a series of articles that reviewed and analyzed the impact of air pollution and climate change on human health systematically, and propose recommendations for the next phase of research. Meanwhile, we introduce the latest achievements of the World Health Organization (WHO) in coping with air pollution and health, summarize the first WHO Global Conference on Air Pollution and Health, and provide evidence-based guidelines for control and prevention of climate change and air pollution in China.}, }
@article {pmid30604087, year = {2019}, author = {Denley, D and Metaxas, A and Fennel, K}, title = {Community composition influences the population growth and ecological impact of invasive species in response to climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {189}, number = {2}, pages = {537-548}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-018-04334-4}, pmid = {30604087}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {RGPIN-2016-04878//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, abstract = {Predicting long-term impacts of introduced species is challenging, since stressors related to global change can influence species-community interactions by affecting both demographic rates of invasive species and the structure of the invaded ecosystems. Invasive species can alter ecosystem structure over time, further complicating interactions between invasive species and invaded communities in response to additional stressors. Few studies have considered how cumulative impacts of species invasion and global change on the structure of invaded ecosystems may influence persistence and population growth of introduced species. Here, we present an empirically based population model for an invasive epiphytic bryozoan that can dramatically alter the structure of its invaded kelp bed ecosystems. We use this model to predict the response of invasive species to climate change and associated changes in the invaded community. Population growth of the bryozoan increased under near-future projections of increasing ocean temperature; however, the magnitude of population growth depended on the community composition of invaded kelp beds. Our results suggest that, in some cases, indirect effects of climate change mediated through changes to the structure of the invaded habitat can modulate direct effects of climate change on invasive species, with consequences for their long-term ecological impact. Our findings have important implications for management of invasive species, as modifying invaded habitats at local to regional scales may be more logistically feasible than addressing stressors related to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30602746, year = {2019}, author = {Newman, J}, title = {Islands' institutes band together against climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {565}, number = {7737}, pages = {25}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-07873-1}, pmid = {30602746}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30600449, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, S and Jiang, J and Zhou, Y and Li, J and Zhao, D and Lin, S}, title = {Climate-change information, health-risk perception and residents' environmental complaint behavior: an empirical study in China.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10653-018-0235-4}, pmid = {30600449}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {71601174//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71804174//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71571172//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2018M632555//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; 16CJL020//National Social Science Foundation of China/ ; 2017R0034//Fujian Fund of Soft Science Research/ ; None//Program for New Century Excellent Talents in Fujian Province University/ ; }, abstract = {Motivating residents to deliver environmental complaints is beneficial for environmental authorities to help them manage environmental issues and alleviate the adverse effects caused by climate change. The major aim of the present study is to understand how climate-change information and residents' health-risk perceptions (both physical and mental dimensions) affect residents' environmental complaint behavior. The research framework was developed according to planned behavior theory, risk perception behavior and information behavior models. This framework was empirically assessed by employing questionnaire survey data gathered from 1273 respondents in China. The results indicate that climate-change information and residents' health-risk perceptions have all significantly positive effects on residents' attitudes toward environmental complaints and their intention to submit environmental complaints. Meanwhile, residents' health-risk perception is also positively affected by climate-change information. Mental health-risk perception plays a much stronger role in determining a residents' attitude and intention to submit an environmental complaint than does physical health-risk perception. Furthermore, attitude toward environmental complaint, perceived behavioral control and subjective norm all have significantly positive effects on a residents' intention to submit an environmental complaint. Additionally, this study also addresses the intention-behavior gap and suggests a positive relationship between intention and behavior. The present study may provide some practical implications to motivate residents to submit environmental complaints.}, }
@article {pmid30598797, year = {2018}, author = {Savva, I and Bennett, S and Roca, G and Jordà, G and Marbà, N}, title = {Thermal tolerance of Mediterranean marine macrophytes: Vulnerability to global warming.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {23}, pages = {12032-12043}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4663}, pmid = {30598797}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The Mediterranean Sea is warming at three times the rate of the global ocean raising concerns about the vulnerability of marine organisms to climate change. Macrophytes play a key role in coastal ecosystems, therefore predicting how warming will affect these key species is critical to understand the effects of climate change on Mediterranean coastal ecosystems. We measured the physiological performance of six dominant native Mediterranean macrophytes under ten temperature treatments ranging from 12 to 34°C to examine their thermal niche, and vulnerability to projected warming in the western Mediterranean up until 2100. Among the macrophytes tested, Cymodocea nodosa was the species with the highest thermal optima and it was beyond current summer temperature. Therefore, C. nodosa may benefit from projected warming over the coming century. The optimal temperature for growth of the other species (Posidonia oceanica, Cystoseira compressa, Padina pavonica, Caulerpa prolifera, and Halimeda tuna) was lower. Similarly, the species presented different upper lethal limits, spanning at least across 5.1°C between 28.9°C (P. oceanica) and >34°C (C. nodosa). Our results demonstrate the variable physiological responses of species within the same local community to temperature changes and highlight important potential differences in climate change vulnerability, among species within coastal marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30598784, year = {2018}, author = {Su, J and Aryal, A and Hegab, IM and Shrestha, UB and Coogan, SCP and Sathyakumar, S and Dalannast, M and Dou, Z and Suo, Y and Dabu, X and Fu, H and Wu, L and Ji, W}, title = {Decreasing brown bear (Ursus arctos) habitat due to climate change in Central Asia and the Asian Highlands.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {23}, pages = {11887-11899}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4645}, pmid = {30598784}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Around the world, climate change has impacted many species. In this study, we used bioclimatic variables and biophysical layers of Central Asia and the Asian Highlands combined with presence data of brown bear (Ursus arctos) to understand their current distribution and predict their future distribution under the current rate of climate change. Our bioclimatic model showed that the current suitable habitat of brown bear encompasses 3,430,493 km2 in the study area, the majority of which (>65%) located in China. Our analyses demonstrated that suitable habitat will be reduced by 11% (378,861.30 km2) across Central Asia and the Asian Highlands by 2,050 due to climate change, predominantly (>90%) due to the changes in temperature and precipitation. The spatially averaged mean annual temperature of brown bear habitat is currently -1.2°C and predicted to increase to 1.6°C by 2,050. Mean annual precipitation in brown bear habitats is predicted to increase by 13% (from 406 to 459 mm) by 2,050. Such changes in two critical climatic variables may significantly affect the brown bear distribution, ethological repertoires, and physiological processes, which may increase their risk of extirpation in some areas. Approximately 32% (1,124,330 km2) of the total suitable habitat falls within protected areas, which was predicted to reduce to 1,103,912 km2 (1.8% loss) by 2,050. Future loss of suitable habitats inside the protected areas may force brown bears to move outside the protected areas thereby increasing their risk of mortality. Therefore, more protected areas should be established in the suitable brown bear habitats in future to sustain populations in this region. Furthermore, development of corridors is needed to connect habitats between protected areas of different countries in Central Asia. Such practices will facilitate climate migration and connectivity among populations and movement between and within countries.}, }
@article {pmid30597870, year = {2018}, author = {Schnitter, R and Verret, M and Berry, P and Chung Tiam Fook, T and Hales, S and Lal, A and Edwards, S}, title = {An Assessment of Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation in Dominica.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16010070}, pmid = {30597870}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {A climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessment was conducted in Dominica, a Caribbean small island developing state located in the Lesser Antilles. The assessment revealed that the country's population is already experiencing many impacts on health and health systems from climate variability and change. Infectious diseases as well as food and waterborne diseases pose continued threats as climate change may exacerbate the related health risks. Threats to food security were also identified, with particular concern for food production systems. The findings of the assessment included near-term and long-term adaptation options that can inform actions of health sector decision-makers in addressing health vulnerabilities and building resilience to climate change. Key challenges include the need for enhanced financial and human resources to build awareness of key health risks and increase adaptive capacity. Other small island developing states interested in pursuing a vulnerability and adaptation assessment may find this assessment approach, key findings, analysis, and lessons learned useful.}, }
@article {pmid30597712, year = {2019}, author = {Peterson, ML and Doak, DF and Morris, WF}, title = {Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {775-793}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14562}, pmid = {30597712}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographic ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade-off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to nonclimatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species-level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA.}, }
@article {pmid30594113, year = {2019}, author = {Puppim de Oliveira, JA}, title = {Intergovernmental relations for environmental governance: Cases of solid waste management and climate change in two Malaysian States.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {233}, number = {}, pages = {481-488}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.097}, pmid = {30594113}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Institutions for environmental governance evolve differently across sectors. They also vary in the same sector when governments at two levels (national and subnational) have different political alignments. As the policy environment becomes more complex, with global problems like climate change, and politics more dividing, better coordination among various levels of government is a tough governance challenge. Scholars and practitioners need to realize how best to build institutions to bridge the various levels of government in different political environments and environmental sectors. This research analyzes the influence of intergovernmental relations in two environmental sectors in two localities with contrasting political alignments between two levels of government. It draws lessons from solid waste management and climate policy in two Malaysian states (Johor and Penang). In an evolving State and new policy arenas, when formal institutions for intergovernmental relations may not be effectively in place, politics play an even larger role through the discretionary power of federal and subnational authorities. An open political process can help with the engagement of different political groups and civil society to bring legitimacy, resources and efficiency to environmental management, if it is done with robust intergovernmental institutions; otherwise, intergovernmental relations can also become a tool for zero-sum games, cronyism and patrimonialism, which can undermine policies, and result in inefficiencies and ineffectiveness in environmental management.}, }
@article {pmid30589982, year = {2019}, author = {Kissel, AM and Palen, WJ and Ryan, ME and Adams, MJ}, title = {Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {e01832}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1832}, pmid = {30589982}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {//NPS George M. Wright Climate Change Youth Initiative Fellowship/ ; //North Coast and Cascades Science Learning Network/ ; //North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative/ ; //Northwest Climate Science Center/ ; //David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellows Program/ ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life-history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow-dominated to rain-dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post-metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species' life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage-based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s, and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed-specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15 yr of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λs) to be 0.97 (95% CI 0.84-1.13), but predict that λs will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.}, }
@article {pmid30587880, year = {2018}, author = {Ylä-Anttila, T and Vesa, J and Eranti, V and Kukkonen, A and Lehtimäki, T and Lonkila, M and Luhtakallio, E}, title = {Up with ecology, down with economy? The consolidation of the idea of climate change mitigation in the global public sphere.}, journal = {European journal of communication}, volume = {33}, number = {6}, pages = {587-603}, doi = {10.1177/0267323118790155}, pmid = {30587880}, issn = {0267-3231}, abstract = {Building on theories of valuation and evaluation, we develop an analytical framework that outlines six elements of the process of consolidation of an idea in the public sphere. We then