@article {pmid32750540, year = {2020}, author = {Wamelink, GWW and Mol-Dijkstra, JP and Reinds, GJ and Voogd, JC and Bonten, LTC and Posch, M and Hennekens, SM and de Vries, W}, title = {Prediction of plant species occurrence as affected by nitrogen deposition and climate change on a European scale.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {266}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {115257}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115257}, pmid = {32750540}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Plant species occurrence in Europe is affected by changes in nitrogen deposition and climate. Insight into potential future effects of those changes can be derived by a model approach based on field-based empirical evidence on a continental scale. In this paper, we present a newly developed empirical model PROPS, predicting the occurrence probabilities of plant species in response to a combination of climatic factors, nitrogen deposition and soil properties. Parameters included were temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, soil pH and soil C/N ratio. The PROPS model was fitted to plant species occurrence data of about 800,000 European relevés with estimated values for pH and soil C/N ratio and interpolated climate and modelled N deposition data obtained from the Ensemble meteo data set and EMEP model results, respectively. The model was validated on an independent data set. The test of ten species against field data gave an average Pearson's r-value of 0.79. PROPS was applied to a grassland and a heathland site to evaluate the effect of scenarios for nitrogen deposition and climate change on the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI), being the average of the relative probabilities, compared to the maximum probability, of all target species in a habitat. Results for the period 1930-2050 showed that an initial increase and later decrease in nitrogen deposition led to a pronounced decrease in HSI, and with dropping nitrogen deposition to an increase of the HSI. The effect of climate change appeared to be limited, resulting in a slight increase in HSI.}, }
@article {pmid32748042, year = {2020}, author = {Vanderkelen, I and Zscheischler, J and Gudmundsson, L and Keuler, K and Rineau, F and Beenaerts, N and Vangronsveld, J and Vicca, S and Thiery, W}, title = {Correction to: A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01973-2}, pmid = {32748042}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {The article was published bearing a typographical error to the second author name listed. The author group regret the error and the name should be referenced and credited as Jakob Zscheischler and not the former.}, }
@article {pmid32742077, year = {2017}, author = {Liu, X and Wu, W and Wielicki, BA and Yang, Q and Kizer, SH and Huang, X and Chen, X and Kato, S and Shea, YL and Mlynczak, MG}, title = {Spectrally Dependent CLARREO Infrared Spectrometer Calibration Requirement for Climate Change Detection.}, journal = {Journal of climate}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {3979-3998}, pmid = {32742077}, issn = {0894-8755}, abstract = {Detecting climate trends of atmospheric temperature, moisture, cloud, and surface temperature requires accurately calibrated satellite instruments such as the Climate Absolute Radiance and Reflectivity Observatory (CLARREO). Wielicki et al. have studied the CLARREO measurement requirements for achieving climate change accuracy goals in orbit. Our study further quantifies the spectrally dependent IR instrument calibration requirement for detecting trends of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles. The temperature, water vapor, and surface skin temperature variability and the associated correlation time are derived using Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data. The results are further validated using climate model simulation results. With the derived natural variability as the reference, the calibration requirement is established by carrying out a simulation study for CLARREO observations of various atmospheric states under all-sky. We derive a 0.04 K (k=2, or 95% confidence) radiometric calibration requirement baseline using a spectral fingerprinting method. We also demonstrate that the requirement is spectrally dependent and some spectral regions can be relaxed due to the hyperspectral nature of the CLARREO instrument. We further discuss relaxing the requirement to 0.06 K (k=2) based on the uncertainties associated with the temperature and water vapor natural variability and relatively small delay in time-to-detect for trends relative to the baseline case. The methodology used in this study can be extended to other parameters (such as clouds and CO2) and other instrument configurations.}, }
@article {pmid32742076, year = {2016}, author = {Li, F and Vikhliaev, YV and Newman, PA and Pawson, S and Perlwitz, J and Waugh, DW and Douglass, AR}, title = {Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System - Version 5 (GEOS-5).}, journal = {Journal of climate}, volume = {29}, number = {9}, pages = {3199-3218}, pmid = {32742076}, issn = {0894-8755}, abstract = {Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. In this study we investigate the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960-2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model's climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979-2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November-December-January. It enhances stratosphere-troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind-stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.}, }
@article {pmid32745275, year = {2020}, author = {González-Del-Pliego, P and Scheffers, BR and Freckleton, RP and Basham, EW and Araújo, MB and Acosta-Galvis, AR and Medina Uribe, CA and Haugaasen, T and Edwards, DP}, title = {Thermal tolerance and the importance of microhabitats for Andean frogs in the context of land-use and climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13309}, pmid = {32745275}, issn = {1365-2656}, abstract = {1. Global warming is having impacts across the Tree of Life. Understanding species' physiological sensitivity to temperature change and how they relate to local temperature variation in their habitats is crucial to determining vulnerability to global warming. 2. We ask how species' vulnerability varies across habitats and elevations, and how climatically-buffered microhabitats can contribute to reduce their vulnerability. 3. We measured thermal sensitivity (critical thermal maximum - CTmax) of 14 species of Pristimantis frogs inhabiting young and old secondary, and primary forests in the Colombian Andes. Exposure to temperature stress was measured by recording temperature in the understory and across five microhabitats. We determined frogs' current vulnerability across habitats, elevations and microhabitats accounting for phylogeny and then ask how vulnerability varies under four warming scenarios: +1.5⁰C, +2⁰C, +3⁰C and +5⁰C. 4. We found that CTmax was constant across species regardless of habitat and elevation. However, species in young secondary forests are expected to become more vulnerable because of increased exposure to higher temperatures. Microhabitat variation could enable species to persist within their thermal temperature range as long as regional temperatures do not surpass +2°C. The effectiveness of microhabitat buffering decreases with a 2-3°C increase, and is almost null under a 5°C temperature increase. 5. Microhabitats will provide thermal protection to Andean frog communities from climate change by enabling tracking of suitable climates through short distance movement. Conservation strategies, such as managing landscapes by preserving primary forests and allowing regrowth and re-connection of secondary forest would offer thermally buffered microhabitats and aid in the survival of this group.}, }
@article {pmid32745267, year = {2020}, author = {Galán, C and Thibaudon, M}, title = {Climate Change, Airborne Pollen and Pollution.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/all.14538}, pmid = {32745267}, issn = {1398-9995}, }
@article {pmid32743086, year = {2020}, author = {Gebru, GW and Ichoku, HE and Phil-Eze, PO}, title = {Determinants of smallholder farmers' adoption of adaptation strategies to climate change in Eastern Tigray National Regional State of Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {7}, pages = {e04356}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04356}, pmid = {32743086}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change has been significantly affecting smallholder farmer's livelihood and food security. However, efforts to support farmer adaptation are hampered by the lack of scientific and context based evidences. Hence, this paper identified the major adaptation strategies to climate change (CC) and analysed the determinants of adoption of adaptation strategies to climate change in Eastern Tigray Region of Ethiopia. Three-stage sampling technique was used to select the study sites and sample households. Copies of 485 questionnaires were administered and complemented with data from focus group discussion and key informant interviews. Results of the descriptive analysis identified that use of soil and water conservation practices, planting trees, improved crop seeds, irrigation and use of non-farm income generating activities are the most utilized adaptation strategies to climate change. Results of the multinomial logistic regression (MNL) revealed that households' adaptation to climate change was found positively and significantly affected by education, livestock holding, cooperatives membership, extension services, farmers income and households perception to climate change. On the contrary, age of the household head, distance to market and agro-ecology were found negatively and statistically affecting smallholder farmers adoption of adaptation strategies to climate change. Thus, public policy on climate change adaptation need to take into account local people's resource base and their lifelong outlooks so as to reduce the potential drawbacks of climate change on farmers' livelihood.}, }
@article {pmid32741054, year = {2020}, author = {Denechaud, C and Smoliński, S and Geffen, AJ and Godiksen, JA and Campana, SE}, title = {A century of fish growth in relation to climate change, population dynamics and exploitation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15298}, pmid = {32741054}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Marine ecosystems, particularly in high-latitude regions such as the Arctic, have been significantly affected by human activities and contributions to climate change. Evaluating how fish populations responded to past changes in their environment is helpful for evaluating their future patterns, but is often hindered by the lack of long-term biological data available. Using otolith increments of Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod (Gadus morhua) as a proxy for individual growth, we developed a century-scale biochronology (1924-2014) based on the measurements of 3894 fish, which revealed significant variations in cod growth over the last 91 years. We combined mixed-effect modeling and path analysis to relate these growth variations to selected climate, population and fishing-related factors. Cod growth was negatively related to cod population size and positively related to capelin population size, one of the most important prey items. This suggests that density-dependent effects are the main source of growth variability due to competition for resources and cannibalism. Growth was also positively correlated with warming sea temperatures but negatively correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, suggesting contrasting effects of climate warming at different spatial scales. Fishing pressure had a significant but weak negative direct impact on growth. Additionally, path analysis revealed that the selected growth factors were interrelated. Capelin biomass was positively related to sea temperature and negatively influenced by herring biomass, while cod biomass was mainly driven by fishing mortality. Together, these results give a better understanding of how multiple interacting factors have shaped cod growth throughout a century, both directly and indirectly.}, }
@article {pmid32740923, year = {2020}, author = {Gade, MR and Connette, GM and Crawford, JA and Hocking, DJ and Maerz, JC and Milanovich, JR and Peterman, WE}, title = {Predicted alteration of surface activity as a consequence of climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e03154}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.3154}, pmid = {32740923}, issn = {1939-9170}, abstract = {Wildlife are faced with numerous threats to survival, none more pressing than that of climate change. Understanding how species will respond to changing climate behaviorally, physiologically, and demographically is a cornerstone of many contemporary ecological studies, especially for organisms, such as amphibians, whose persistence is closely tied to abiotic conditions. Activity is a useful parameter for understanding the effects of climate change because activity is directly linked to fitness as it dictates foraging times, energy budgets, and mating opportunities. However, activity can be challenging to directly measure, especially for secretive organisms like plethodontid salamanders which only become surface active when conditions are cool and moist due to their anatomical and physiological restrictions. We estimated abiotic predictors of surface activity for the seven species of the Plethodon jordani complex. Five independent data sets collected from 2004-2017 were used to determine the parameters driving salamander surface activity in the present-day, which were then used to predict potential activity changes over the next 80 years. Average active season temperature and vapor pressure deficit were the strongest predictors of salamander surface activity and, without physiological or behavioral modifications, salamanders were predicted to exhibit a higher probability of surface activity during peak active season under future climate conditions. Temperatures during the active season likely do not exceed salamander thermal maxima to cause activity suppression and, until physiological limits are reached, future conditions may continue to increase activity. Our model is the first comprehensive field-based study to assess current and future surface activity probability. Our study provides insights into how a key behavior driving fitness may be affected by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32740833, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, J and Zhi, M}, title = {Effects of basin nutrient discharge variations coupled with climate change on water quality in Lake Erhai, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09179-0}, pmid = {32740833}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {In Lake Erhai, water quality was affected by the basin nutrient discharge and climate change. To analyze the relationships between the water quality (total nitrogen [TN], total phosphorus [TP], chemical oxygen demand [CODmn], ammonia [NH4], and trophic level index [TLI]) and basin nutrient discharge (TNd, TPd, and CODd) combined with climate changes (air temperature [AT], precipitation [pre], wind speed [wind], and sunshine hours [SHs]), the generalized additive model (GAM) was employed to explore the nonlinear relationships with their interactions using data sets ranging from 1999 to 2012. Our findings revealed that the water quality in Lake Erhai deteriorated in the early twentieth century, and the basin discharge and AT appeared significant (p < 0.05) rising trends in a long time, while the precipitation decreased significantly (p < 0.05) in the study period. Single-factor GAM results indicated that the basin nutrient discharge was the main explanatory factor for the variations of TN and TP in lake, while precipitation was the main driver for CODmn and NH4. Besides, the water quality displayed nonlinear responses to the basin discharge, but all of the water quality variables went up as the emission levels increased in the lower range. The results showed that the water quality deteriorated in the lower rainfall, and TN rose as the AT increases, while TP was elevated accompanied by the ascending SHs there. The GAM interaction results suggested that the increase of AT and TPd had a promoting effect on TP in Lake Erhai. Stricter nutrient management measures should be implemented when the impacts of climate change are taken into account.}, }
@article {pmid32738697, year = {2020}, author = {Ojo, TO and Baiyegunhi, LJS}, title = {Impact of climate change adaptation strategies on rice productivity in South-west, Nigeria: An endogeneity corrected stochastic frontier model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {745}, number = {}, pages = {141151}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141151}, pmid = {32738697}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The study assessed the impact of climate change adaptation strategies on technical efficiency of smallholder rice farmers in South-west Nigeria. An endogeneity corrected stochastic frontier model which account for the endogeneity of adoption of adaptation strategies that is likely to depend on inefficiency was employed for the study. The result of the study revealed that adoption of adaption strategies is endogenously determined with rice productivity and hence, failure to account for endogeneity, the parameter efficiency estimates would be inconsistent. The empirical results from the model show that quantity of labour, herbicides and the interaction of labour with both farm size and insecticides were statistically significant in explaining the variations in the efficiency of rice production in the study area. In addition, the study identified the combined effects of climate change adaptation strategies and some socioeconomic characteristics such as age, gender, education, farming experience, access to credit, access to information, membership of farmers in agricultural based cooperative and location of rice farmers as sources of technical inefficiencies. The study concluded that increase implementation of climate change adaptation strategies could enhance rice productivity and technical efficiency of rice farmers through timely access to climate change information and other related institutional support. Based on farmers' knowledge and understanding of changes in climatic conditions and the adaptation strategies to mitigate its effect, it is therefore important for the government, stakeholders and donor agencies to involve farmers in the climate change adaptation planning process.}, }
@article {pmid32738058, year = {2020}, author = {D'Amato, G and Akdis, CA}, title = {Global warming, climate change, air pollution and allergies.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/all.14527}, pmid = {32738058}, issn = {1398-9995}, abstract = {The average global temperatures on our planet are increasing due to rising anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, in particular carbon dioxide (CO2).1,2 There is an urgent need to call for action on global warming, which is resulting in extreme weather and related catastrophes.1 ,2 The Earth's rising temperature is evidenced by warming of the oceans, melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and the diminished snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate-related factors can affect interactive atmospheric components (chemical and biological) and their interrelationship with human health.}, }
@article {pmid32738026, year = {2020}, author = {Masoero, G and Laaksonen, T and Morosinotto, C and Korpimäki, E}, title = {Climate change and perishable food hoards of an avian predator: Is the freezer still working?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15250}, pmid = {32738026}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {123379//Academy of Finland/ ; 136717//Academy of Finland/ ; 250709//Academy of Finland/ ; //University Of Turku Graduate School (UTUGS)/ ; }, abstract = {Changing climate can modify predator-prey interactions and induce declines or local extinctions of species due to reductions in food availability. Species hoarding perishable food for overwinter survival, like predators, are predicted to be particularly susceptible to increasing temperatures. We analysed the influence of autumn and winter weather, and abundance of main prey (voles), on the food-hoarding behaviour of a generalist predator, the Eurasian pygmy owl (Glaucidium passerinum), across 16 years in Finland. Fewer freeze-thaw events in early autumn delayed the initiation of food hoarding. Pygmy owls consumed more hoarded food with more frequent freeze-thaw events and deeper snow cover in autumn and in winter, and lower precipitation in winter. In autumn, the rotting of food hoards increased with precipitation. Hoards already present in early autumn were much more likely to rot than the ones initiated in late autumn. Rotten food hoards were used more in years of low food abundance than in years of high food abundance. Having rotten food hoards in autumn resulted in a lower future recapture probability of female owls. These results indicate that pygmy owls might be partly able to adapt to climate change by delaying food hoarding, but changes in the snow cover, precipitation and frequency of freeze-thaw events might impair their foraging and ultimately decrease local overwinter survival. Long-term trends and future predictions, therefore, suggest that impacts of climate change on wintering food-hoarding species could be substantial, because their 'freezers' may no longer work properly. Altered usability and poorer quality of hoarded food may further modify the foraging needs of food-hoarding predators and thus their overall predation pressure on prey species. This raises concerns about the impacts of climate change on boreal food webs, in which ecological interactions have evolved under cold winter conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32737629, year = {2020}, author = {Sharma, A and Batish, DR and Uniyal, SK}, title = {Documentation and validation of climate change perception of an ethnic community of the western Himalaya.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {8}, pages = {552}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08512-x}, pmid = {32737629}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {GAP 0199//Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change/ ; }, abstract = {The high-altitude regions of Himalaya are among the best indicators of climate change yet noticeable for the lack of climate monitoring stations. However, they support ethnic communities whose livelihood activities are climate driven. Consequently, these communities are keen observers of the same and documenting their perception on changing climate is now an important area of global research. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the prime objective of documenting the climate change perception of Bhangalis-a resident community of western Himalaya, and analyzing variation in their perceptions in relation to age and gender. For this, respondent surveys (household, n = 430; individual interviews, n = 240) were carried out and the collected data were subjected to statistical analyses. The study also validated the perception of Bhangalis using the available weather data (1974-2017) through the Mann-Kendall test. The results reveal that Bhangalis perceived 11 indicators of changing climate, of which decrease in snowfall was the most prominent (reported by ~ 97% of the respondents). The perceptions varied between the two genders with males having significantly higher proportion of responses for all the 11 indicators. Similarly, differences in perception among the age groups were also observed, elderly people reported higher proportion of climate change indicators as compared to respondents of lower age. Notably, patterns of temperature and rainfall perceptions by the Bhangalis agreed with the trends of meteorological data. This highlights the importance of the study in documenting knowledge of ethnic communities especially from areas that lack monitoring stations. It argues for involving them in climate change programs.}, }
@article {pmid32737451, year = {2019}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Climate change made European heatwave up to 3°C hotter.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02384-z}, pmid = {32737451}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32737325, year = {2020}, author = {Liguori, G and McGregor, S and Arblaster, JM and Singh, MS and Meehl, GA}, title = {A joint role for forced and internally-driven variability in the decadal modulation of global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3827}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-17683-7}, pmid = {32737325}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Despite the observed monotonic increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations, global mean temperature displays important decadal fluctuations typically attributed to both external forcing and internal variability. Here, we provide a robust quantification of the relative contributions of anthropogenic, natural, and internally-driven decadal variability of global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) by using a unique dataset consisting of 30-member large initial-condition ensembles with five Earth System Models (ESM-LE). We present evidence that a large fraction (~29-53%) of the simulated decadal-scale variance in individual timeseries of GMSST over 1950-2010 is externally forced and largely linked to the representation of volcanic aerosols. Comparison with the future (2010-2070) period suggests that external forcing provides a source of additional decadal-scale variability in the historical period. Given the unpredictable nature of future volcanic aerosol forcing, it is suggested that a large portion of decadal GMSST variability might not be predictable.}, }
@article {pmid32737311, year = {2020}, author = {Burrell, AL and Evans, JP and De Kauwe, MG}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change has driven over 5 million km2 of drylands towards desertification.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3853}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-17710-7}, pmid = {32737311}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Drylands cover 41% of the earth's land surface and include 45% of the world's agricultural land. These regions are among the most vulnerable ecosystems to anthropogenic climate and land use change and are under threat of desertification. Understanding the roles of anthropogenic climate change, which includes the CO2 fertilization effect, and land use in driving desertification is essential for effective policy responses but remains poorly quantified with methodological differences resulting in large variations in attribution. Here, we perform the first observation-based attribution study of desertification that accounts for climate change, climate variability, CO2 fertilization as well as both the gradual and rapid ecosystem changes caused by land use. We found that, between 1982 and 2015, 6% of the world's drylands underwent desertification driven by unsustainable land use practices compounded by anthropogenic climate change. Despite an average global greening, anthropogenic climate change has degraded 12.6% (5.43 million km2) of drylands, contributing to desertification and affecting 213 million people, 93% of who live in developing economies.}, }
@article {pmid32734542, year = {2020}, author = {Pino-Cortés, E and Carrasco, S and Díaz-Robles, LA and Cubillos, F and Cereceda-Balic, F}, title = {Black and organic carbon fractions in fine particulate matter by sectors in the South Hemisphere emissions for decision-making on climate change and health effects.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-10164-w}, pmid = {32734542}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {21150125//Beca Doctorado Nacional ANID/ ; 1120791//FONDECYT ANID/ ; }, abstract = {Some databases report global emissions of certain pollutants. Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) project is one of these, which also records emissions by sources. In this study, the emissions of black and organic carbon and fine particulate matter from the EDGAR database were used as an input to process it in the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model. We showed the spatial distribution of the fraction of black and organic carbon in particulate matter from each source in the Southern Hemisphere. Also, we extracted these ratios for several cities in the domain of analysis. The results and methodology of this study could improve the emission inventories with bottom-up methodology in areas without information located at Southern Hemisphere. Also, it could be relevant to obtain better performance in air quality modeling at the local level for decision-making on climate change and health effects.}, }
@article {pmid32734426, year = {2020}, author = {Riquelme, C and Estay, SA and Contreras, R and Corti, P}, title = {Extinction risk assessment of a Patagonian ungulate using population dynamics models under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01971-4}, pmid = {32734426}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {7910012016//Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica/ ; FB-002//Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica/ ; 3110187//Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico/ ; 1160370//Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects population cycles of several species, threatening biodiversity. However, there are few long-term studies on species with conservation issues and restricted distributions. Huemul is a deer endemic to the southern Andes in South America and it is considered endangered mostly due to a 50% reduction of its distribution over the last 500 years. To assess environmental variables potentially affecting huemul population viability and the impact of climate change, we developed population dynamics models. We used a 14-year survey data from Bernardo O'Higgins National Park, coastal Chilean Patagonia. We used Ricker models considering winter and spring temperatures and precipitation as variables influencing huemul population dynamics. We used the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) to select models with the greatest predictive power. The two best models (ΔBIC < 2) included winter temperature and density-dependence population growth drivers. The best model considered a lateral effect, where winter temperature influences carrying capacity and the second best a vertical effect with winter temperature influencing Rmax and carrying capacity. Population viability was evaluated using those models, projecting them over a 100-year period: (a) under current conditions and (b) under conditions estimated by Global Climate Models for 2050 and 2070. The extinction risk and quasi-extinction were estimated for this population considering two critical huemul abundance levels (15 and 30 individuals) for persistence. The population is currently in a quasi-extinction process, with extinction probabilities increasing with climate change. These results are crucial for conservation of species like huemul that have low densities and are threatened by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32734424, year = {2020}, author = {Huang, W and Dai, J and Wang, W and Li, J and Feng, C and Du, J}, title = {Phenological changes in herbaceous plants in China's grasslands and their responses to climate change: a meta-analysis.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01974-1}, pmid = {32734424}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {2016YFC0503304//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 2018YFA0606102//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 41771056//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Plant phenological events are sensitive indicators of climate change, and their change could markedly affect the structure and function of ecosystems. Previous studies have revealed the spatiotemporal variations in the phenological events of woody plants. However, limited studies have focused on the phenophases of herbaceous plants. In this study, by using a meta-analysis method, we extracted information about the phenological changes in herbaceous plants in China's grasslands from existing studies (including the period, station, species, phenophases, phenological trends, and climatic determinants) and analyzed the patterns manifested in the dataset. The results showed that the spring phenophases (e.g., first leaf date and first flowering date) of the herbaceous plants mainly advanced over the past 30 years, but a large difference existed across grassland types. The spring phenophases of forages (species from the Cyperaceae, Gramineae, and Leguminosae families) became earlier in the desert steppe and alpine steppe but showed no apparent trends in the alpine meadow and even became later in the meadow steppe and typical steppe. In most cases, the increase in spring temperatures and precipitation promoted the greening up of herbaceous plants, while sunshine duration was positively correlated with the green-up date of herbaceous plants. For the autumn phenophases, the proportions of the earlier and later trends were very close, but the trends varied among the grassland types. The leaf coloring dates of the forages were delayed in the meadow steppe and alpine steppe but showed no distinct pattern in the typical steppe or alpine meadow and even became earlier in the desert steppe. In most cases, the increase in growing season temperature led to an earlier leaf coloring date of the herbaceous plants, but the increase in the preseason precipitation delayed the leaf coloring date. Our results suggested that the phenophases of herbaceous plants have complicated responses to multiple environmental factors, which makes predicting future phenological changes difficult.}, }
@article {pmid32734279, year = {2020}, author = {Bellouin, N and Quaas, J and Gryspeerdt, E and Kinne, S and Stier, P and Watson-Parris, D and Boucher, O and Carslaw, KS and Christensen, M and Daniau, AL and Dufresne, JL and Feingold, G and Fiedler, S and Forster, P and Gettelman, A and Haywood, JM and Lohmann, U and Malavelle, F and Mauritsen, T and McCoy, DT and Myhre, G and Mülmenstädt, J and Neubauer, D and Possner, A and Rugenstein, M and Sato, Y and Schulz, M and Schwartz, SE and Sourdeval, O and Storelvmo, T and Toll, V and Winker, D and Stevens, B}, title = {Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change.}, journal = {Reviews of geophysics (Washington, D.C. : 1985)}, volume = {58}, number = {1}, pages = {e2019RG000660}, doi = {10.1029/2019RG000660}, pmid = {32734279}, issn = {8755-1209}, abstract = {Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.6 to -0.6 W m-2, or -2.0 to -0.4 W m-2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.}, }
@article {pmid32728594, year = {2020}, author = {Munia, HA and Guillaume, JHA and Wada, Y and Veldkamp, T and Virkki, V and Kummu, M}, title = {Future Transboundary Water Stress and Its Drivers Under Climate Change: A Global Study.}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {e2019EF001321}, doi = {10.1029/2019EF001321}, pmid = {32728594}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {Various transboundary river basins are facing increased pressure on water resources in near future. However, little is known ab out the future drivers globally, namely, changes in natural local runoff and natural inflows from upstream parts of a basin, as well as local and upstream water consumption. Here we use an ensemble of four global hydrological models forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration (RCP) and socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios to assess the impact of these drivers on transboundary water stress in the past and future. Our results show that population under water stress is expected to increase by 50% under a low population growth and emissions scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) and double under a high population growth and emission scenario (SSP3-RCP6.0), compared to the year 2010. As changes in water availability have a smaller effect when water is not yet scarce, changes in water stress globally are dominated by local water consumption-managing local demand is thus necessary in order to avoid future stress. Focusing then on the role of upstream changes, we identified upstream availability (i.e., less natural runoff or increased water consumption) as the dominant driver of changes in net water availability in most downstream areas. Moreover, an increased number of people will be living in areas dependent on upstream originating water in 2050. International water treaties and management will therefore have an increasingly crucial role in these hot spot regions to ensure fair management of transboundary water resources.}, }
@article {pmid32728139, year = {2020}, author = {McMahan, CD and Fuentes-Montejo, CE and Ginger, L and Carrasco, JC and Chakrabarty, P and Matamoros, WA}, title = {Climate change models predict decreases in the range of a microendemic freshwater fish in Honduras.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {12693}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-69579-7}, pmid = {32728139}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Despite their incredible diversity, relatively little work has been done to assess impacts of climate change on tropical freshwater organisms. Chortiheros wesseli is a species of Neotropical cichlid (Cichlidae: Cichlinae) restricted to only a few river drainages in the Caribbean-slope of Honduras. Little is known about this species and few specimens had been collected until recently; however, our work with this species in the wild has led to a better understanding of its ecology and habitat preferences making it an excellent model for how freshwater fishes can be affected by climate change. This study assesses the distribution and habitats of Chortiheros wesseli using a combination of field data and species distribution modeling. Results indicate this species is largely limited to its current range, with no realistic suitable habitat nearby. Empirical habitat data show that this species is limited to narrow and shallow flowing waters with rapids and boulders. This habitat type is highly influenced by precipitation, which contributed the greatest influence on the models of present and future habitat suitability. Although several localities are within boundaries of national protected areas, species distribution models all predict a reduction in the range of this freshwater fish based on climate change scenarios. The likelihood of a reduced range for this species will be intensified by adverse changes to its preferred habitats.}, }
@article {pmid32726701, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, W and Bailey, RT and Andersen, HE and Jeppesen, E and Nielsen, A and Peng, K and Molina-Navarro, E and Park, S and Thodsen, H and Trolle, D}, title = {Quantifying the effects of climate change on hydrological regime and stream biota in a groundwater-dominated catchment: A modelling approach combining SWAT-MODFLOW with flow-biota empirical models.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {745}, number = {}, pages = {140933}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140933}, pmid = {32726701}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change may affect stream ecosystems through flow regime alterations, which can be particularly complex in streams with a significant groundwater contribution. To quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and subsequently the stream biota, we linked SWAT-MODFLOW (A model coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Modular Finite-difference Flow Model) with flow-biota empirical models that included indices for three key biological taxonomic identities (fish, macroinvertebrates and macrophytes) and applied the model-complex to a groundwater-dominated catchment in Denmark. Effects of predicted climate change towards the end of this century relative to the reference period (1996-2005) were tested with two contrasting climate change scenarios of different greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP 2.6) and RCP 8.5) and analysed for all subbasins grouped into streams of three size classes. The total water yield in the catchment did not change significantly (-1 ± 4 (SD) mm yr-1) from the baseline in the RCP2.6 scenario, while it increased by 9 ± 11 mm yr-1 in the RCP8.5 scenario. The three stream size classes underwent different alterations in flow regime and also demonstrated different biotic responses to climate change. All large and some small streams were impacted most heavily by the climate change, where fish and macrophyte indices decreased up to 14.4% and 11.2%, respectively, whereas these indices increased by up to 14.4% and 6.0%, respectively, in the medium and some small streams. The climate change effects were, as expected, larger in the RCP8.5 scenario than in the RCP2.6 scenario. Our study is the first to quantify the impacts of streamflow alterations induced by climate change on stream biota beyond specific species.}, }
@article {pmid32726345, year = {2020}, author = {Boethius, A and Kjällquist, M and Magnell, O and Apel, J}, title = {Human encroachment, climate change and the loss of our archaeological organic cultural heritage: Accelerated bone deterioration at Ageröd, a revisited Scandinavian Mesolithic key-site in despair.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e0236105}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0236105}, pmid = {32726345}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Ancient organic remains are essential for the reconstruction of past human lifeways and environments but are only preserved under particular conditions. Recent findings indicate that such conditions are becoming rarer and that archaeological sites with previously good preservation, are deteriorating. To investigate this, we returned to the well-known Swedish Mesolithic site Ageröd I. Here we present the result of the re-excavation and the osteological analyses of the bone remains from the 1940s, 1970s and 2019 excavation campaigns of the site, to document and quantify changes in bone preservation and relate them to variations in soil conditions and on-site topography. The results indicate that the bone material has suffered from accelerated deterioration during the last 75 years. This has led to heavily degraded remains in some areas and complete destruction in others. We conclude that while Ageröd can still be considered an important site, it has lost much of the properties that made it unique. If no actions are taken to secure its future preservation, the site will soon lose the organic remains that before modern encroachment and climate change had been preserved for 9000 years. Finally, because Ageröd has not been subjected to more or heavier encroachment than most other archaeological sites, our results also raise questions of the state of organic preservation in other areas and call for a broad examination of our most vulnerable hidden archaeological remains.}, }
@article {pmid32724542, year = {2020}, author = {Quinby, BM and Belk, MC and Creighton, JC}, title = {Behavioral constraints on local adaptation and counter-gradient variation: Implications for climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {13}, pages = {6688-6701}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.6399}, pmid = {32724542}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Resource allocation to growth, reproduction, and body maintenance varies within species along latitudinal gradients. Two hypotheses explaining this variation are local adaptation and counter-gradient variation. The local adaptation hypothesis proposes that populations are adapted to local environmental conditions and are therefore less adapted to environmental conditions at other locations. The counter-gradient variation hypothesis proposes that one population out performs others across an environmental gradient because its source location has greater selective pressure than other locations. Our study had two goals. First, we tested the local adaptation and counter-gradient variation hypotheses by measuring effects of environmental temperature on phenotypic expression of reproductive traits in the burying beetle, Nicrophorus orbicollis Say, from three populations along a latitudinal gradient in a common garden experimental design. Second, we compared patterns of variation to evaluate whether traits covary or whether local adaptation of traits precludes adaptive responses by others. Across a latitudinal range, N. orbicollis exhibits variation in initiating reproduction and brood sizes. Consistent with local adaptation: (a) beetles were less likely to initiate breeding at extreme temperatures, especially when that temperature represents their source range; (b) once beetles initiate reproduction, source populations produce relatively larger broods at temperatures consistent with their local environment. Consistent with counter-gradient variation, lower latitude populations were more successful at producing offspring at lower temperatures. We found no evidence for adaptive variation in other adult or offspring performance traits. This suite of traits does not appear to coevolve along the latitudinal gradient. Rather, response to selection to breed within a narrow temperature range may preclude selection on other traits. Our study highlights that N. orbicollis uses temperature as an environmental cue to determine whether to initiate reproduction, providing insight into how behavior is modified to avoid costly reproductive attempts. Furthermore, our results suggest a temperature constraint that shapes reproductive behavior.}, }
@article {pmid32722794, year = {2020}, author = {Footitt, S and Hambidge, AJ and Finch-Savage, WE}, title = {Changes in phenological events in response to a global warming scenario reveal greater adaptability of winter annual compared to summer annual Arabidopsis ecotypes.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcaa141}, pmid = {32722794}, issn = {1095-8290}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The impact of global warming on life cycle timing is uncertain. We investigated changes in life cycle timing in a global warming scenario. We compared Arabidopsis thaliana ecotypes adapted to the warm/dry Cape Verdi Islands (Cvi), Macaronesia, and the cool/wet climate of the Burren (Bur), Ireland, Northern Europe. These are obligate winter and summer annuals respectively.<br><br>METHODS: Using a global warming scenario predicting a 4°C temperature rise from 2011 to circa 2080 we produced F1 seeds at each end of a thermogradient tunnel. Each F1 cohort (cool and warm) then produced F2 seeds at both ends of the thermal gradient in winter and summer annual life cycles. F2 seeds from the winter life cycle were buried at three positions along the gradient to determine the impact of temperature on seedling emergence in a simulated winter life cycle.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: In a winter life cycle, increasing temperatures advanced flowering time by 10.1 days °C-1 in the winter annual and 4.9 days °C-1 in the summer annual. Plant size and seed yield responded positively to global warming in both ecotypes. In a winter life cycle, the impact of increasing temperature on seedling emergence timing was positive in the winter annual, but negative in the summer annual. Global warming reduced summer annual plant size and seed yield in a summer life cycle.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Seedling emergence timing observed in the north European summer annual ecotype may exacerbate the negative impact of predicted increased spring and summer temperatures on their establishment and reproductive performance. In contrast, seedling establishment of the Macaronesian winter annual may benefit from higher soil temperatures that will delay emergence until autumn, but which also facilitates earlier spring flowering and consequent avoidance of high summer temperatures. Such plasticity gives winter annual Arabidopsis ecotypes a distinct advantage over summer annuals in expected global warming scenarios. This highlights the importance of variation in the timing of seedling establishment in understanding plant species responses to Anthropogenic Climate Change.}, }
@article {pmid32722291, year = {2020}, author = {Di Cicco, ME and Ferrante, G and Amato, D and Capizzi, A and De Pieri, C and Ferraro, VA and Furno, M and Tranchino, V and La Grutta, S}, title = {Climate Change and Childhood Respiratory Health: A Call to Action for Paediatricians.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {15}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph17155344}, pmid = {32722291}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is one of the main contributors to health emergencies worldwide. CC appears to be closely interrelated with air pollution, as some pollutants like carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and black carbon are naturally occurring greenhouse gases. Air pollution may enhance the allergenicity of some plants and, also, has an adverse effect on respiratory health. Children are a uniquely vulnerable group that suffers disproportionately from CC burden. The increasing global warming related to CC has a big impact on plants' lifecycles, with earlier and longer pollen seasons, as well as higher pollen production, putting children affected by asthma and allergic rhinitis at risk for exacerbations. Extreme weather events may play a role too, not only in the exacerbations of allergic respiratory diseases but, also, in favouring respiratory infections. Even though paediatricians are already seeing the impacts of CC on their patients, their knowledge about CC-related health outcomes with specific regards to children's respiratory health is incomplete. This advocates for paediatricians' increased awareness and a better understanding of the CC impact on children's respiratory health. Having a special responsibility for children, paediatricians should actively be involved in policies aimed to protect the next generation from CC-related adverse health effects. Hence, there is an urgent need for them to take action and successfully educate families about CC issues. This paper aims at reviewing the evidence of CC-related environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, rainfall and extreme events on respiratory allergic diseases and respiratory infections in children and proposing specific actionable items for paediatricians to deal with CC-related health issues in their clinical practice.}, }
@article {pmid32721755, year = {2020}, author = {Kim, YU and Lee, BW}, title = {Earlier planting offsets the adverse effect of global warming on spring potato in South Korea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {742}, number = {}, pages = {140667}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140667}, pmid = {32721755}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Potato is one of the most important food crops in South Korea, but the climate change impact on potato production is not clearly understood due to the complex topography across the nation. The climate change impact on spring potato was assessed with a fine-resolution (1-km) simulation using the SUBSTOR-potato model and five regional climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5. Compared to the current climate, the future climates were projected to be more favorable for the spring potato production, which contrasts the previous simulation studies using general circulation models with coarse resolutions (0.5-1.0°). Without any adaptations, anticipated warming was projected to decrease potato yield by -7.7% in the 2080s. However, growing season length (GSL) could be extended by 18.5 days with earlier planting, which eventually over-compensated the negative warming effect. With consideration of the CO2 fertilization effect, overall climate change impact could be up to +80% in the 2080s. In addition, replacing the current early cultivar &quot;Superior&quot; with mid-late cultivars will provide additional yield gain in the coastal areas. Meanwhile, in the inland areas, breeding of frost- and heat-tolerance cultivars will be required for additional yield gain. Still, cautious interpretation is needed since the CO2 fertilization effect might be over-estimated and that the farmers may not extend GSL as much as in the current study from the economic point of view (i.e., farmers may harvest earlier when the market price of potato is high). This study highlights that a fine spatial resolution is essential for the realistic simulation of the climate change impact in complex terrain.}, }
@article {pmid32721353, year = {2020}, author = {Perry, DC and Chaffee, C and Wigand, C and Thornber, C}, title = {Implementing adaptive management into a climate change adaptation strategy for a drowning New England salt marsh.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {270}, number = {}, pages = {110928}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110928}, pmid = {32721353}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Due to climate change and other anthropogenic stressors, future conditions and impacts facing coastal habitats are unclear to coastal resource managers. Adaptive management strategies have become an important tactic to compensate for the unknown environmental conditions that coastal managers and restoration ecologists face. Adaptive management requires extensive planning and resources, which can act as barriers to achieve a successful project. These barriers also create challenges in incorporating adaptive management into climate change adaptation strategies. This case study describes and analyzes the Rhode Island Coastal Resources Management Council's approach to overcome these challenges to implement a successful adaptive management project to restore a drowning salt marsh using the climate change adaptation strategy, sediment enhancement, at Quonochontaug Pond in Charlestown, RI. Through effective communication and active stakeholder involvement, this project successfully incorporated interdisciplinary partner and stakeholder collaborations and developed an iterative learning strategy that highlights the adaptive management method.}, }
@article {pmid32720216, year = {2020}, author = {Hayes, K and Poland, B and Cole, DC and Agic, B}, title = {Psychosocial adaptation to climate change in High River, Alberta: implications for policy and practice.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17269/s41997-020-00380-9}, pmid = {32720216}, issn = {1920-7476}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Psychosocial adaptation to climate change-related events remains understudied. We sought to assess how the psychosocial consequences of a major event were addressed via public health responses (e.g., programs, policies, and practices) that aimed to enhance, protect, and promote mental health.<br><br>METHODS: We report on a study of health and social service responses to the long-term mental health impacts of the 2013 Southern Alberta flood, in High River, Alberta. Qualitative research methods included (i) telephone interviews (n = 14) with key informant health and social services leaders, (ii) four focus group sessions with front-line health and social services workers (n = 14), and (iii) semi-structured interviews with a sample of community members (n = 18) who experienced the flood. We conducted a descriptive thematic analysis, with a focus on participants' perceptions and experiences.<br><br>RESULTS: Findings of this study suggest (1) the long-term psychosocial impacts of extreme weather and climate change require sustained recovery interventions rooted in local knowledge and interdisciplinary action; (2) there are unintended consequences related to psychosocial interventions that can incite complex emotions and impact psychosocial recovery; and (3) perceptions of mental health care, among people exposed to climate-related trauma, can guide climate change and mental health response and recovery interventions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Based on this initial exploration, policy and practice opportunities for public health to enhance psychosocial adaptation to our changing climate are highlighted.}, }
@article {pmid32719706, year = {2020}, author = {Letelier, L and Gaete-Eastman, C and Peñailillo, P and Moya-León, MA and Herrera, R}, title = {Southern Species From the Biodiversity Hotspot of Central Chile: A Source of Color, Aroma, and Metabolites for Global Agriculture and Food Industry in a Scenario of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1002}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.01002}, pmid = {32719706}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Two interesting plants within the Chilean flora (wild and crop species) can be found with a history related to modern fruticulture: Fragaria chiloensis subsp. chiloensis (Rosaceae) and Vasconcellea pubescens (Caricaceae). Both species have a wide natural distribution, which goes from the Andes mountains to the sea (East-West), and from the Atacama desert to the South of Chile (North-South). The growing locations are included within the Chilean Winter Rainfall-Valdivian Forest hotspot. Global warming is of great concern as it increases the risk of losing wild plant species, but at the same time, gives a chance for usually longer term genetic improvement using naturally adapted material and the source for generating healthy foods. Modern agriculture intensifies the attractiveness of native undomesticated species as a way to provide compounds like antioxidants or tolerant plants for climate change scenario. F. chiloensis subsp. chiloensis as the mother of commercial strawberry (Fragaria × ananassa) is an interesting genetic source for the improvement of fruit flavor and stress tolerance. On the other hand, V. pubescens produces fruit with high level of antioxidants and proteolytic enzymes of interest to the food industry. The current review compiles the botanical, physiological and phytochemical description of F. chiloensis subsp. chiloensis and V. pubescens, highlighting their potential as functional foods and as source of compounds with several applications in the pharmaceutical, biotechnological, and food science. The impact of global warming scenario on the distribution of the species is also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid32719142, year = {2020}, author = {Driscoll, AW and Bitter, NQ and Sandquist, DR and Ehleringer, JR}, title = {Multidecadal records of intrinsic water-use efficiency in the desert shrub Encelia farinosa reveal strong responses to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2008345117}, pmid = {32719142}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {While tree rings have enabled interannual examination of the influence of climate on trees, this is not possible for most shrubs. Here, we leverage a multidecadal record of annual foliar carbon isotope ratio collections coupled with 39 y of survey data from two populations of the drought-deciduous desert shrub Encelia farinosa to provide insight into water-use dynamics and climate. This carbon isotope record provides a unique opportunity to examine the response of desert shrubs to increasing temperature and water stress in a region where climate is changing rapidly. Population mean carbon isotope ratios fluctuated predictably in response to interannual variations in temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and precipitation, and responses were similar among individuals. We leveraged the well-established relationships between leaf carbon isotope ratios and the ratio of intracellular to ambient CO2 concentrations to calculate intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of the plants and to quantify plant responses to long-term environmental change. The population mean iWUE value increased by 53 to 58% over the study period, much more than the 20 to 30% increase that has been measured in forests [J. Peñuelas, J. G. Canadell, R. Ogaya, Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 20, 597-608 (2011)]. Changes were associated with both increased CO2 concentration and increased water stress. Individuals whose lifetimes spanned the entire study period exhibited increases in iWUE that were very similar to the population mean, suggesting that there was significant plasticity within individuals rather than selection at the population scale.}, }
@article {pmid32718436, year = {2020}, author = {Gaythorpe, KA and Hamlet, A and Cibrelus, L and Garske, T and Ferguson, NM}, title = {The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa.}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.7554/eLife.55619}, pmid = {32718436}, issn = {2050-084X}, support = {OPP1117543//Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation/ ; OPP1157270//Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation/ ; MR/R015600/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Yellow Fever (YF) is an arbovirus endemic in tropical regions of South America and Africa and it is estimated to cause 78,000 deaths a year in Africa alone. Climate change may have substantial effects on the transmission of YF and we present the first analysis of the potential impact on disease burden. We extend an existing model of YF transmission to account for rainfall and a temperature suitability index and project transmission intensity across the African endemic region in the context of four climate change scenarios. We use these transmission projections to assess the change in burden in 2050 and 2070. We find disease burden changes heterogeneously across the region. In the least severe scenario, we find a 93.0%[95%CI(92.7, 93.2%)] chance that annual deaths will increase in 2050. This change in epidemiology will complicate future control efforts. Thus, we may need to consider the effect of changing climatic variables on future intervention strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32718434, year = {2020}, author = {Yin, R and Siebert, J and Eisenhauer, N and Schädler, M}, title = {Climate change and intensive land use reduce soil animal biomass via dissimilar pathways.}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.7554/eLife.54749}, pmid = {32718434}, issn = {2050-084X}, support = {No. 677232//H2020 European Research Council/ ; FZT 118//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; 201406910015//China Scholarship Council/ ; }, abstract = {Global change drivers, such as climate change and land use, may profoundly influence body size, density, and biomass of soil organisms. However, it is still unclear how these concurrent drivers interact in affecting ecological communities. Here, we present the results of an experimental field study assessing the interactive effects of climate change and land-use intensification on body size, density, and biomass of soil microarthropods. We found that the projected climate change and intensive land use decreased their total biomass. Strikingly, this reduction was realized via two dissimilar pathways: climate change reduced mean body size and intensive land use decreased density. These findings highlight that two of the most pervasive global change drivers operate via different pathways when decreasing soil animal biomass. These shifts in soil communities may threaten essential ecosystem functions like organic matter turnover and nutrient cycling in future ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid32715118, year = {2020}, author = {Idrissou, Y and Assani, AS and Baco, MN and Yabi, AJ and Alkoiret Traoré, I}, title = {Adaptation strategies of cattle farmers in the dry and sub-humid tropical zones of Benin in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {7}, pages = {e04373}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04373}, pmid = {32715118}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Cattle farming is directly impacted by climate change (CC), as it utilizes resources whose seasonality and productivity are strongly climate-dependent. Farmers respond to the negative influence of CC by implementing different adaptation strategies, where choices are informed by many factors. This study aims at analyzing the adaptation strategies of cattle farmers in the dry tropical zone (DTZ) and sub-humid tropical zone (STZ) of Benin with regard to climate change, as well as the determinants for the choice of these strategies. For that matter, 360 cattle farmers were surveyed. Data collected were related to the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the cattle farmers, their perception and adaptation to CC. The data collected were subjected to frequency analysis and binary logistic regression. The results showed that livestock farmers were partly aware of climate related with CC, especially the increase of temperature. The most important adaptation strategies mentioned by cattle farmers were mobility, integration of livestock and crop husbandry, provision of concentrate feed, reduction of herd size, diversification of livestock, and forage cropping. Farming experience, cattle herd size, membership in an organization, number of farm assets, level of education, and climate zone were the major variables affecting farmers' adaptation strategies. From this study, we recommend that any program promoting adaption of climate change resilience among farmers, especially cattle farmers, should take the identified factors into account.}, }
@article {pmid32715012, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, M and Yang, L and Smith, JA and Vecchi, GA}, title = {Response of Extreme Rainfall for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition to Projected Climate Change: Hurricane Irene (2011).}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {e2019EF001360}, doi = {10.1029/2019EF001360}, pmid = {32715012}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) have large societal impacts, both in fatalities and economic losses. This study examines the response of TC rainfall to climate change projected under future anthropogenic greenhouse emissions, focusing on Hurricane Irene, which produced severe flooding across the Northeastern United States in August 2011. Numerical simulations are made with the Weather Research and Forecasting model, placing Irene in the present-day climate and one projected for the end of 21st century climate represented by Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Projected future changes to surface and atmospheric temperature lead to a storm rainfall increase of 32% relative to the control run, exceeding the rate expected by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation given a ~3-K lower atmospheric warming. Analyses of the atmospheric water balance highlight contributions to the increase in rainfall rate from both increased circulation strength and atmospheric moisture. Storm rainfall rate shows contrasting response to global warming during TC and extratropical transition periods. During the TC phase, Irene shows a significant increase of storm rainfall rate in inner core regions. This increase shifts to outer rainbands as Irene undergoes extratropical transition, collocated with the maximum tangential wind increase and the change of secondary circulation strength. Changes of storm track from the control run to global warming projections play a role in the change of spatial rainfall pattern. Distinct roles of surface and atmospheric warming in storm rainfall and structure changes are also examined.}, }
@article {pmid32714343, year = {2020}, author = {Heckathorn, S and North, G and Wang, D and Zhu, C}, title = {Editorial: Climate Change and Plant Nutrient Relations.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {869}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00869}, pmid = {32714343}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid32713996, year = {2020}, author = {Fahad, AA and Burls, NJ and Strasberg, Z}, title = {How will southern hemisphere subtropical anticyclones respond to global warming? Mechanisms and seasonality in CMIP5 and CMIP6 model projections.}, journal = {Climate dynamics}, volume = {55}, number = {3}, pages = {703-718}, doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05290-7}, pmid = {32713996}, issn = {0930-7575}, abstract = {The anticyclonic high-pressure systems over the southern-hemisphere, subtropical oceans have a significant influence on regional climate. Previous studies of how these subtropical anticyclones will change under global warming have focused on austral summer while the winter season has remained largely uninvestigated, together with the extent to which the dominant mechanisms proposed to explain the multi-model-mean changes similarly explain the inter-model spread in projections. This study addresses these gaps by focusing on the mechanisms that drive the spread in projected future changes across the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 archives during both the summer and winter seasons. The southern hemisphere anticyclones intensify in strength at their center and poleward flank during both seasons in the future projections analyzed. The inter-model spread in projected local diabatic heating changes accounts for a considerable amount of the inter-model spread in the response of the South Pacific anticyclone during both seasons. However, model differences in projected zonal-mean tropospheric static stability changes, which in turn influence baroclinic eddy growth, are most influential in determining the often-strong increases in sea level pressure seen along the poleward flank of all the anticyclones during both seasons. Increased zonal-mean tropospheric static stability over the subtropics is consistent with the poleward shift in Hadley cell edge and zonal-mean sea level pressure increases. The results suggest that differences in the extent of tropical-upper-tropospheric and subtropical-lower-tropospheric warming in the southern hemisphere, via their influence on tropospheric static stability, will largely determine the fate of the anticyclones over the coming century.}, }
@article {pmid32711362, year = {2020}, author = {Marshall, KE and Gotthard, K and Williams, CM}, title = {Evolutionary impacts of winter climate change on insects.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {41}, number = {}, pages = {54-62}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2020.06.003}, pmid = {32711362}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Overwintering is a serious challenge for insects, and winters are rapidly changing as climate shifts. The capacity for phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary adaptation will determine which species profit or suffer from these changes. Here we discuss current knowledge on the potential and evidence for evolution in winter-relevant traits among insect species and populations. We conclude that the best evidence for evolutionary shifts in response to changing winters remain those related to changes in phenology, but all evidence points to cold hardiness as also having the potential to evolve in response to climate change. Predicting future population sizes and ranges relies on understanding to what extent evolution in winter-related traits is possible, and remains a serious challenge.}, }
@article {pmid32711311, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, DD and Pei, Q and Lee, HF and Jim, CY and Li, G and Zhang, M and Li, J and Wu, Z and Wang, L and Yue, RPH and Zhang, S}, title = {Climate change fostered cultural dynamics of human resilience in Europe in the past 2500 years.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {744}, number = {}, pages = {140842}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140842}, pmid = {32711311}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Humans possess limited knowledge on what generated cultural dynamics to strengthen human resilience to overcome climate-induced stresses. Although the highly developed mental ability of humans could have enabled significant human resilience in history, no study has empirically explained or has even scientifically confirmed how and when such dynamics arose. To fill the current research gap, this study therefore explores the associations among climatic conditions, the evolutional dynamics of human thinkers and their thoughts, and human ecological-socioeconomic conditions in the past 2500 years in Europe. Results from quantitative modellings and causal analyses confirm that climatic-ecological stresses led to human ecological-socioeconomic crises, and thereby dramatically increased twice of the thinkers' number and their thoughts' impact across different philosophies in truth, knowledge, and ethics for adaptation at multi-decadal to centennial temporal scales, especially in spirituality oriented mentality. The process of the stress-generated cultural dynamics displays some similarities with the stress-induced mutagenesis in organism evolution. Ultimately, climatic-ecological stresses prompt the escalation in the number of thinkers and impacts of their thoughts and flourishing of philosophy. Such stress-regenerated cultural dynamics imply that the current climate change threat may stimulate another thriving phase of cultural selection and lift humans to the next homeostatic plateau of civilization. Findings also extend the cognate scope of psychological, sociological, and civilization studies.}, }
@article {pmid32710358, year = {2020}, author = {Chadha, A and Florentine, S and Javaid, M and Welgama, A and Turville, C}, title = {Influence of elements of climate change on the growth and fecundity of Datura stramonium.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-10251-y}, pmid = {32710358}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {In this study, the performance of Datura stramonium, an invasive weed of soybean and solanaceous crops, was examined under different elements of climate change. Experiments conducted in CO2 chambers at ambient CO2 (400 ppm) and elevated CO2 (700 ppm) levels under both well-watered and drought conditions exhibited the fertilization effect of elevated CO2. This was, however, limited by drought. Clearly, growth of D. stramonium will be significantly enhanced by enriched atmospheric CO2 concentration under well-watered conditions, producing taller plants with greater biomass and higher seed output. Glasshouse experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect of different soil moisture regimes (100%, 75%, 50% and 25% water-holding capacity (WHC)) on the growth and fecundity of D. stramonium. Plants grown in 75% WHC had the highest plant height (15.24 cm) and shoot diameter (4.25 mm). The lowest leaf area (305.91 mm2), fresh weight (14.48 g) and dry weight (4.45 g) were observed in 25% WHC conditions. The ability of D. stramonium plants to grow and complete their life cycle with high seed output, even under limited water availability, shows the weedy nature of this species which is well adapted to survive future inhospitable climatic conditions. Radiant heat treatment on the plants indicated that temperatures of 120 °C and above for more than 180 s were enough to kill the plants, suggesting that thermal weeding or wildfires will be adequate to act as a circuit breaker on the D. stramonium invasion cycle, thus allowing other control measures to be engaged for greater control.}, }
@article {pmid32709871, year = {2020}, author = {Wu, WY and Lo, MH and Wada, Y and Famiglietti, JS and Reager, JT and Yeh, PJ and Ducharne, A and Yang, ZL}, title = {Divergent effects of climate change on future groundwater availability in key mid-latitude aquifers.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3710}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-17581-y}, pmid = {32709871}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {104-2923-M-002-002-MY4//Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan)/ ; }, abstract = {Groundwater provides critical freshwater supply, particularly in dry regions where surface water availability is limited. Climate change impacts on GWS (groundwater storage) could affect the sustainability of freshwater resources. Here, we used a fully-coupled climate model to investigate GWS changes over seven critical aquifers identified as significantly distressed by satellite observations. We assessed the potential climate-driven impacts on GWS changes throughout the 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). Results show that the climate-driven impacts on GWS changes do not necessarily reflect the long-term trend in precipitation; instead, the trend may result from enhancement of evapotranspiration, and reduction in snowmelt, which collectively lead to divergent responses of GWS changes across different aquifers. Finally, we compare the climate-driven and anthropogenic pumping impacts. The reduction in GWS is mainly due to the combined impacts of over-pumping and climate effects; however, the contribution of pumping could easily far exceed the natural replenishment.}, }
@article {pmid32709742, year = {2020}, author = {Yoccoz, NG}, title = {Seasonal climate change and marmot demography.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2012792117}, pmid = {32709742}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid32708953, year = {2020}, author = {Ching, J and Kajino, M}, title = {Rethinking Air Quality and Climate Change after COVID-19.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {14}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph17145167}, pmid = {32708953}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {14200133//Research Institute for Humanity and Nature/ ; JP19F19402//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/ ; JP19H01155//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/ ; JP16KK0018//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/ ; }, abstract = {The world is currently shadowed by the pandemic of COVID-19. Confirmed cases and the death toll has reached more than 12 million and more than 550,000 respectively as of 10 July 2020. In the unsettling pandemic of COVID-19, the whole Earth has been on an unprecedented lockdown. Social distancing among people, interrupted international and domestic air traffic and suspended industrial productions and economic activities have various far-reaching and undetermined implications on air quality and the climate system. Improvement in air quality has been reported in many cities during lockdown, while the death rate of COVID-19 has been found to be higher in more polluted cities. The relationship between the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and air quality is under investigation. In addition, the battle against COVID-19 could bring short-lived and long-lasting and positive and negative impacts to the warming climate. The impacts on the climate system and the role of the climate in modulating the COVID-19 pandemic are the foci of scientific inquiry. The intertwined relationship among environment, climate change and public health is exemplified in the pandemic of COVID-19. Further investigation of the relationship is imperative in the Anthropocene, in particular, in enhancing disaster preparedness. This short article intends to give an up-to-date glimpse of the pandemic from air quality and climate perspectives and calls for a follow-up discussion.}, }
@article {pmid32708323, year = {2020}, author = {Shayanmehr, S and Rastegari Henneberry, S and Sabouhi Sabouni, M and Shahnoushi Foroushani, N}, title = {Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {14}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph17145264}, pmid = {32708323}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Agriculture has been identified as one of the most vulnerable sectors affected by climate change. In the present study, we investigate the impact of climatic change on dryland wheat yield in the northwest of Iran for the future time horizon of 2041-2070. The Just and Pope production function is applied to assess the impact of climate change on dryland wheat yield and yield risk for the period of 1991-2016. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to generate climate parameters from General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. The results show that minimum temperature is negatively related to average yield in the linear model while the relationship is positive in the non-linear model. An increase in precipitation increases the mean yield in either model. The maximum temperature has a positive effect on the mean yield in the linear model, while this impact is negative in the non-linear model. Drought has an adverse impact on yield levels in both models. The results also indicate that maximum temperature, precipitation, and drought are positively related to yield variability, but minimum temperature is negatively associated with yield variability. The findings also reveal that yield variability is expected to increase in response to future climate scenarios. Given these impacts of temperature on rain-fed wheat crop and its increasing vulnerability to climatic change, policy-makers should support research into and development of wheat varieties that are resistant to temperature variations.}, }
@article {pmid32707000, year = {2020}, author = {Madden, DL and McLean, M and Brennan, M and Moore, A}, title = {Why use indicators to measure and monitor the inclusion of climate change and environmental sustainability in health professions' education?.}, journal = {Medical teacher}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-4}, doi = {10.1080/0142159X.2020.1795106}, pmid = {32707000}, issn = {1466-187X}, abstract = {Currently, health professionals are inadequately prepared to meet the challenges that climate change and environmental degradation pose to health systems. Health professions' education (HPE) has an ethical responsibility to address this and must include the health effects of climate change and environmental sustainability across all curricula. As there is a narrow, closing window in which to take action to avoid the worst health outcomes from climate change, urgent, systematic, system-level change is required by the education sector. Measuring, monitoring, and reporting activity using indicators have been demonstrated to support change by providing a focus for action. A review of the literature on the use of indicators in medical education for climate change and health, however, yielded no publications. The framework of targets and indicators developed for implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 and the UNESCO initiative of the Education for Sustainable Development provide a guide for the development of indicators for HPE. Engaging stakeholders and achieving consensus on an approach to indicator development is essential and, where they exist, accreditation standards may have a supporting role. Creating capacity for environmentally sustainable health care at scale and pace should be our collective goal as health professions' educators.}, }
@article {pmid32703273, year = {2020}, author = {Udayanga, L and Gunathilaka, N and Iqbal, MCM and Abeyewickreme, W}, title = {Climate change induced vulnerability and adaption for dengue incidence in Colombo and Kandy districts: the detailed investigation in Sri Lanka.}, journal = {Infectious diseases of poverty}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {102}, doi = {10.1186/s40249-020-00717-z}, pmid = {32703273}, issn = {2049-9957}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Assessing the vulnerability of an infectious disease such as dengue among endemic population is an important requirement to design proactive programmes in order to improve resilience capacity of vulnerable communities. The current study aimed to evaluate the climate change induced socio-economic vulnerability of local communities to dengue in Colombo and Kandy districts of Sri Lanka.<br><br>METHODS: A total of 42 variables (entomological, epidemiological, meteorological parameters, land-use practices and socio-demographic data) of all the 38 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas in the districts of Colombo and Kandy were considered as candidate variables for a composite index based vulnerability assessment. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used in selecting and setting the weight for each indicator. Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity and Vulnerability of all MOH areas for dengue were calculated using the composite index approach recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.<br><br>RESULTS: Out of 42 candidate variables, only 23 parameters (Exposure Index: six variables; Sensitivity Index: 11 variables; Adaptive Capacity Index: six variables) were selected as indicators to assess climate change vulnerability to dengue. Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) MOH area denoted the highest values for exposure (0.89: exceptionally high exposure), sensitivity (0.86: exceptionally high sensitivity) in Colombo, while Kandy Municipal Council (KMC) area reported the highest exposure (0.79: high exposure) and sensitivity (0.77: high sensitivity) in Kandy. Piliyandala MOH area denoted the highest level of adaptive capacity (0.66) in Colombo followed by Menikhinna (0.68) in Kandy. The highest vulnerability (0.45: moderate vulnerability) to dengue was indicated from CMC and the lowest indicated from Galaha MOH (0.15; very low vulnerability) in Kandy. Interestingly the KMC MOH area had a notable vulnerability of 0.41 (moderate vulnerability), which was the highest within Kandy.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In general, vulnerability for dengue was relatively higher within the MOH areas of Colombo, than in Kandy, suggesting a higher degree of potential susceptibility to dengue within and among local communities of Colombo. Vector Controlling Entities are recommended to consider the spatial variations in vulnerability of local communities to dengue for decision making, especially in allocation of limited financial, human and mechanical resources for dengue epidemic management.}, }
@article {pmid32702540, year = {2020}, author = {Sun, S and Zhang, Y and Huang, D and Wang, H and Cao, Q and Fan, P and Yang, N and Zheng, P and Wang, R}, title = {The effect of climate change on the richness distribution pattern of oaks (Quercus L.) in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {744}, number = {}, pages = {140786}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140786}, pmid = {32702540}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the air is acknowledged as one of the main reason for observed global climatic change. This phenomenon significantly affects the species geographical distribution, and changes their richness distribution pattern. Oak (Quercus L.) is an important component of forests in China, and it has significant ecological value. Based on the distribution data of 35 species and 19 bioclimatic variables, the potential richness distribution of Quercus L. in China was predicted using the MaxEnt model under present climatic conditions and three different emission scenarios in the years 2050 and 2070 with six General Circulation Models (GCMs). The results revealed that Quercus L. at present was primarily distributed in the mountainous areas of southwestern China. The simulations indicated that climate change could affect the spatial pattern of the richness distribution, and if climate change intensified, its impact would gradually increase. As temperatures rise, the distribution of Quercus L. was predicted to be concentrated, and suitable areas of certain species would contract. These species may migrate to high altitudes or high latitudes. The high percentage of species lost is the reason for the higher turnover values in the mountainous areas, while other regions are mostly be influenced by the high percentage of species gained associated with the northward shift of species. Predicting changes in the richness distribution pattern of Quercus L. as a result of climate change can help us understand the biogeography of Quercus L. and enact conservation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32701271, year = {2020}, author = {Pradhan, P and Kriewald, S and Costa, L and Rybski, D and Benton, T and Fischer, G and Kropp, JP}, title = {Urban food systems: how regionalization can contribute to climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.0c02739}, pmid = {32701271}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Cities will play a key role in the grand challenge of nourishing a growing global population, because, due to their population density, they set the demand. To ensure that food systems are sustainable as well as nourishing, one solution often suggested is to shorten their supply chains towards a regional rather than a global basis. Whilst such regional systems may have a range of costs and benefits, we investigate the mitigation potential of regionalized urban food systems by examining the greenhouse gas emissions associated with food transport. Using data on food consumption for 7,108 urban administrative units (UAUs), we simulate total transport emissions for both regionalized and globalized supply chains. In regionalized systems, the UAUs' demands are fulfilled by peripheral food production, whereas to simulate global supply chains, food demand is met from an international pool (where the origin can be any location globally). We estimate that regionalized systems could reduce current emissions from food transport. However, because longer supply chains benefit from maximizing comparative advantage, this emission reduction would require closing yield gaps, reducing food waste, shifting towards diversified farming, and consuming seasonal produce. Regionalization of food systems will be an essential component to limit global warming to well below 2 °C in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32700850, year = {2020}, author = {Ode Geo,  and Halim,  and Rachmasari Ariani, WO}, title = {Farming Production Analysis of Seaweed and Farmer's Perception towards Climate Change Effect in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia.}, journal = {Pakistan journal of biological sciences : PJBS}, volume = {23}, number = {8}, pages = {1004-1009}, doi = {10.3923/pjbs.2020.1004.1009}, pmid = {32700850}, issn = {1812-5735}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The seaweed farming has a high economic value for the community's economic development as well as one of the cores of the national economic support. Therefore, it is relatively easy for farmers to adopt its technical cultivation. Moreover, 80% of fishery products in Southeast Sulawesi are seaweed commodities. This study was to know the income of seaweed in Southeast Sulawesi and the coping strategy of climate change effect.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: This research was carried out from September-December, 2019 in Regency of Central Buton and Bombana, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. There were 311 farmers selected by simple random sampling. Primary data was collected through direct face to face interviews guided by questionnaires, while secondary data was obtained from documentary observation from related institutions. This was then analyzed descriptively.<br><br>RESULTS: The result revealed that the average income of seaweed farmers is approximately IDR 8,566,000 for each production season. Moreover, in conforming climate change, farmers had been prepared with superior and qualified seed and strong construction stretch which was relatively safe for deeper waters. At the same time, they also had livelihood alternatives.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results of the analysis and discussion showed that average income of seaweed farmers was IDR 8,566,000 for each production season, R-C ratio value is 2.30 and it means that seaweed farming is financially profitable to continue to work on.}, }
@article {pmid32700843, year = {2020}, author = {Kyu Lee, S and An Dang, T}, title = {Crop Calendar Shift as a Climate Change Adaptation Solution for Cassava Cultivation Area of Binh Thuan Province, Vietnam.}, journal = {Pakistan journal of biological sciences : PJBS}, volume = {23}, number = {7}, pages = {946-952}, doi = {10.3923/pjbs.2020.946.952}, pmid = {32700843}, issn = {1812-5735}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Binh Thuan Province is one of the large cassava cultivation areas in Vietnam. However, in recent years the cassava crops are facing the increased risks of irrigation water shortage due to drought and abnormal change of rainfall under the impacts of climate variability (ICV), leading to reduce crop yield. The study was, therefore, conducted to define a suitable period for planting cassava crops in Binh Thuan Province, Vietnam to reduce the negative impacts of weather factors.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was conducted using the AquaCrop model to predict the cassava yield corresponding to different crop calendars to define the suitable planting period. The model performance was appraised through the calibration and validation process with the index of agreement (d), correlation coefficient (r) up to 0.80 and RMSE lower than 0.40.<br><br>RESULTS: The results carry out that the cassava yield can be reached 48.18 t ha-1 if the crop calendar (CC) is early shifted from 14-21 days compared with the current crop calendar (CCC) for spring crop while an increase of approximately 5.16% can be achieved if the CC is delayed from 7-14 days for summer crop season. The results stated that the proposed model is suitable for defining the CC based on its simulated biomass and cassava yield.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The study indicated that rainfall plays an important role in the planting calendar of cassava crops. Through, it is also confirmed that planting calendars of cassava crops is not appropriate for current weather conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32700062, year = {2020}, author = {Paudel, S and Lin, PA and Hoover, K and Felton, GW and Rajotte, EG}, title = {Asymmetric Responses to Climate Change: Temperature Differentially Alters Herbivore Salivary Elicitor and Host Plant Responses to Herbivory.}, journal = {Journal of chemical ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10886-020-01201-6}, pmid = {32700062}, issn = {1573-1561}, support = {AID-OAA-L-15-00001//United States Agency for International Development/ ; }, abstract = {The effect of temperature on insect-plant interactions in the face of changing climate is complex as the plant, its herbivores and their interactions are usually affected differentially leading to an asymmetry in response. Using experimental warming and a combination of biochemical and herbivory bioassays, the effects of elevated temperatures and herbivore damage (Helicoverpa zea) on resistance and tolerance traits of Solanum lycopersicum var. Better boy (tomato), as well as herbivory performance and salivary defense elicitors were examined. Insects and plants were differentially sensitive towards warming within the experimental temperature range. Herbivore growth rate increased with temperature, whereas plants growth as well as the ability to tolerate stress measured by photosynthesis recovery and regrowth ability were compromised at the highest temperature regime. In particular, temperature influenced the caterpillars' capacity to induce plant defenses due to changes in the amount of a salivary defense elicitor, glucose oxidase (GOX). This was further complexed by the temperature effects on plant inducibility, which was significantly enhanced at an above-optimum temperature; this paralleled with an increased plants resistance to herbivory but significantly varied between previously damaged and undamaged leaves. Elevated temperatures produced asymmetry in species' responses and changes in the relationship among species, indicating a more complicated response under a climate change scenario.}, }
@article {pmid32699234, year = {2020}, author = {Tsai, HY and Rubenstein, DR and Fan, YM and Yuan, TN and Chen, BF and Tang, Y and Chen, IC and Shen, SF}, title = {Author Correction: Locally-adapted reproductive photoperiodism determines population vulnerability to climate change in burying beetles.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3754}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-17567-w}, pmid = {32699234}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32698499, year = {2020}, author = {Li, F and Zhou, H and Huang, DS and Guan, P}, title = {Global Research Output and Theme Trends on Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: A Restrospective Bibliometric and Co-Word Biclustering Investigation of Papers Indexed in PubMed (1999-2018).}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {14}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph17145228}, pmid = {32698499}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {71974199 and 71573275//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2020-MS-159//Liaoning Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; JCRW2020006//the Science Foundation of Liaoning Provincial Department of Education of China/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a challenge for the sustainable development of an international economy and society. The impact of climate change on infectious diseases has been regarded as one of the most urgent research topics. In this paper, an analysis of the bibliometrics, co-word biclustering, and strategic diagram was performed to evaluate global scientific production, hotspots, and developing trends regarding climate change and infectious diseases, based on the data of two decades (1999-2008 and 2009-2018) from PubMed. According to the search strategy and inclusion criteria, a total of 1443 publications were found on the topic of climate change and infectious diseases. There has been increasing research productivity in this field, which has been supported by a wide range of subject categories. The top highly-frequent major MeSH (medical subject headings)/subheading combination terms could be divided into four clusters for the first decade and five for the second decade using a biclustering analysis. At present, some significant public health challenges (global health, and travel and tropical climate, etc.) are at the center of the whole target research network. In the last ten years, &quot;Statistical model&quot;, &quot;Diarrhea&quot;, &quot;Dengue&quot;, &quot;Ecosystem and biodiversity&quot;, and &quot;Zoonoses&quot; have been considered as emerging hotspots, but they still need more attention for further development.}, }
@article {pmid32697859, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, J and Tian, H and Shi, H and Zhang, J and Wang, X and Pan, S and Yang, J}, title = {Increased greenhouse gas emission intensity of major croplands in China: implications for food security and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15290}, pmid = {32697859}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Balancing crop production and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from agriculture soil requires a better understanding and quantification of crop GHGs emission intensity, a measure of GHG emissions per unit crop production. Here, we conduct a state-of-the-art estimate of the spatial-temporal variability of GHG emission intensities for wheat, maize, and rice in China from 1949-2012 using an improved agricultural ecosystem model (DLEM-AG2.0) and meta-analysis covering 172 field-GHG emission experiments. The results show that the GHG emission intensities of these croplands from 1949-2012, on average, were 0.10-1.31 kg CO2 -eq kg-1 , with a significant increase rate of 1.84-3.58×10-3 kg CO2 -eq kg-1 yr-1 . Nitrogen fertilizer was the dominant factor contributing to the increase in GHG emission intensity in northern China and increased its impact in southern China in the 2000s. Increasing GHG emission intensity implies that excessive fertilizer failed to markedly stimulate crop yield increase in China but still exacerbated soil GHG emissions. This study found that overfertilization of more than 60% was mainly located in the winter wheat-summer maize rotation systems in the North China Plain, the winter wheat-rice rotation systems in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and southwest China, and most of the double rice systems in the South. Our simulations suggest that roughly a one-third reduction in the current N fertilizer application level over these &quot;overfertilization&quot; regions would not significantly influence crop yield but decrease soil GHG emissions by 29.60%-32.50% and GHG emission intensity by 0.13-0.25 kg CO2 -eq kg-1 . This reduction is about 29% and 5% of total agricultural soil GHG emissions in China and the world, respectively. This study suggests that improving nitrogen use efficiency would be an effective strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and sustain China's food security.}, }
@article {pmid32688820, year = {2008}, author = {Munns, R}, title = {Editorial: Food security, climate change and biofuels: Integrative plant biology is now in the spotlight.}, journal = {Functional plant biology : FPB}, volume = {35}, number = {8}, pages = {iii}, doi = {10.1071/FPv35n8_ED}, pmid = {32688820}, issn = {1445-4416}, }
@article {pmid32688800, year = {2008}, author = {Tissue, DT and Ellsworth, DS}, title = {Foreword: Measuring impacts of climate change on plants.}, journal = {Functional plant biology : FPB}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {iii-iv}, doi = {10.1071/FPv35n6_FO}, pmid = {32688800}, issn = {1445-4416}, }
@article {pmid32688319, year = {2020}, author = {Kobusińska, ME and Lewandowski, KK and Panasiuk, A and Łęczyński, L and Urbaniak, M and Ossowski, T and Niemirycz, E}, title = {Precursors of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in Arctic and Antarctic marine sediments: Environmental concern in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {260}, number = {}, pages = {127605}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2020.127605}, pmid = {32688319}, issn = {1879-1298}, abstract = {Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) and their precursors - pentachlorophenol (PCP) and triclosan (TCS), constitute a group of persistent, highly toxic multimedia pollutants, being easily transported via atmosphere over long distances, thus particularly threatening to the polar areas. The global fate of PCDD/Fs is temperature-dependent, and their transfer and immobilization at the Poles are described by the grasshopper effect and the cold trap phenomenon. The aim of this interdisciplinary study was to perform a preliminary assessment of the present state of pollution of Arctic and Antarctic marine sediments by PCP and TCS along with determination of PCDD/Fs contamination by immunoassay. Sediments from 20 stations were collected during two polar expeditions (2013-2016). The study area covered Hornsund Fjord and the southwest coast of Wedel-Jarlsberg Land (Arctic) - Skodde Bay, Nottingham Bay, Isbjørnhamna Bay and Admiralty Bay (Antarctica) - Suszczewski Cove, Halfmoon Cove and Herve Cove. The studied contaminants were quantified in 60% of the collected sediments, with almost half exceeding the environmentally safe levels according European regulations and worldwide literature. The determined levels of PCP, TCS and PCDD/F in Arctic and Antarctic sediments were to be comparable to those reported in the southern Baltic Sea located in the intense industrialized mid-latitudes. Maximum concentrations were observed in the vicinity of retreating, marine terminating glaciers. This observation confirms reemission of POPs into the global cycle with respect to the worldwide ocean warming. The results of this study should gain attention of the international and regional environmental agencies as well as the main chlorine production decision makers.}, }
@article {pmid32686001, year = {2020}, author = {Nguyen, QA and Hens, L and Nguyen, N and MacAlister, C and Lebel, L}, title = {Explaining Intentions by Vietnamese Schoolchildren to Adopt Pro-Environmental Behaviors in Response to Climate Change Using Theories of Persuasive Communication.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01334-0}, pmid = {32686001}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Climate change adaptation capacity remains low among vulnerable communities in developing countries such as Vietnam. Vector-borne diseases as dengue fever are increasing as a result of changing weather patterns. This study aims to examine the impact of key psychological variables in the Theory of Reasoned Action, the Theory of Planned Behavior, an Extended Parallel Process Model and the Social Cognitive Theory on the intention of schoolchildren to engage in climate change adaptation behavior-in this study, practices which would help reduce the risks of contracting dengue fever. It also seeks to identify the most salient predictors of the behavioral intention across these theories. Data were obtained from 796 Vietnamese schoolchildren who completed questionnaires measuring constructs of the four theories. Multivariate data analysis demonstrated that self-efficacy and severity appeared to be significant and consistent predictors of the individual's intention to reduce dengue fever. The results provide practical suggestions for the use of the theorical constructs tested in climate change communication campaigns in Vietnam and insights generally on pro-environmental behavior change.}, }
@article {pmid32685164, year = {2020}, author = {Hultine, KR and Allan, GJ and Blasini, D and Bothwell, HM and Cadmus, A and Cooper, HF and Doughty, CE and Gehring, CA and Gitlin, AR and Grady, KC and Hull, JB and Keith, AR and Koepke, DF and Markovchick, L and Corbin Parker, JM and Sankey, TT and Whitham, TG}, title = {Adaptive capacity in the foundation tree species Populus fremontii: implications for resilience to climate change and non-native species invasion in the American Southwest.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {coaa061}, doi = {10.1093/conphys/coaa061}, pmid = {32685164}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Populus fremontii (Fremont cottonwood) is recognized as one of the most important foundation tree species in the southwestern USA and northern Mexico because of its ability to structure communities across multiple trophic levels, drive ecosystem processes and influence biodiversity via genetic-based functional trait variation. However, the areal extent of P. fremontii cover has declined dramatically over the last century due to the effects of surface water diversions, non-native species invasions and more recently climate change. Consequently, P. fremontii gallery forests are considered amongst the most threatened forest types in North America. In this paper, we unify four conceptual areas of genes to ecosystems research related to P. fremontii's capacity to survive or even thrive under current and future environmental conditions: (i) hydraulic function related to canopy thermal regulation during heat waves; (ii) mycorrhizal mutualists in relation to resiliency to climate change and invasion by the non-native tree/shrub, Tamarix; (iii) phenotypic plasticity as a mechanism for coping with rapid changes in climate; and (iv) hybridization between P. fremontii and other closely related Populus species where enhanced vigour of hybrids may preserve the foundational capacity of Populus in the face of environmental change. We also discuss opportunities to scale these conceptual areas from genes to the ecosystem level via remote sensing. We anticipate that the exploration of these conceptual areas of research will facilitate solutions to climate change with a foundation species that is recognized as being critically important for biodiversity conservation and could serve as a model for adaptive management of arid regions in the southwestern USA and around the world.}, }
@article {pmid32683891, year = {2020}, author = {Trájer, AJ}, title = {The changing risk patterns of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece due to climate change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-26}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2020.1793918}, pmid = {32683891}, issn = {1369-1619}, abstract = {It has great importance to study the potential effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece because the country can be the origin of the spread of vivax malaria to the northern areas. The potential lengths of the transmission seasons of Plasmodium vivax malaria were forecasted for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 and were combined. The potential ranges were predicted by Climate Envelope Modelling Method. The models show moderate areal increase and altitudinal shift in the malaria-endemic areas in Greece in the future. The length of the transmission season is predicted to increase by 1 to 2 months, mainly in the mid-elevation regions and the Aegean Archipelago. The combined factors also predict the decrease of vivax malaria-free area in Greece. It can be concluded that rather the elongation of the transmission season will lead to an increase of the malaria risk in Greece than the increase in the suitability values.}, }
@article {pmid32683529, year = {2020}, author = {Raoufi, RS and Soufizadeh, S}, title = {Simulation of the impacts of climate change on phenology, growth, and yield of various rice genotypes in humid sub-tropical environments using AquaCrop-Rice.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01946-5}, pmid = {32683529}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {In the light of continuing anthropogenic climate change, it is important to gain a deep understanding of rice genotypic behavior under climate change. Most efforts on modeling rice performance under climate change focused on studying some aspects of climate change only such as CO2 concentration ([CO2]) or temperature. A comprehensive study on the role of genotypic variability in rice under diverse [CO2] × temperature × rainfall × representative concentration pathway (RCP) × environment is rare. The objective of the present study was to use AquaCrop-Rice model to study the impact of climate change on different rice cultivars in northern Iran. Three common improved and local rice cultivars were chosen, and their growth and yield behavior were simulated under three environments, three RCPs (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), four temperature (+ 1 °C, + 2 °C, + 3 °C, + 4 °C), and two rainfall (± 20%) scenarios under two future timeframes (2020-2051 and 2052-2083). Results indicated different responses of rice cultivars under climate change. In general, improved cultivars acted better than the local cultivar although interaction with environment was also observed. Increase in [CO2] and temperature most often favored rice yield. However, RCP8.5 along with temperature scenario + 1 °C resulted in the highest aboveground biomass and yield. Rainfall variation was not of considerable importance. Phenology (flowering and physiological maturity) was accelerated especially by temperature. The length of the vegetative phase was more influenced by temperature than the length of the generative phase. Our simulations also indicated a potential for adaptation of improved cultivars under increasing [CO2] through their reduced stomatal conductance.}, }
@article {pmid32681892, year = {2020}, author = {Cunsolo, A and Harper, SL and Minor, K and Hayes, K and Williams, KG and Howard, C}, title = {Ecological grief and anxiety: the start of a healthy response to climate change?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {7}, pages = {e261-e263}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30144-3}, pmid = {32681892}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid32678946, year = {2020}, author = {Grant, CA and Hicks, AL}, title = {Global Warming Impacts of Residential Electricity Consumption: Agent Based Modeling of Rooftop Solar Panel Adoption in Los Angeles County, California.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4315}, pmid = {32678946}, issn = {1551-3793}, abstract = {Solar photovoltaics (PV) are a renewable electricity technology with lower carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 e) impacts compared to fossil electricity, making it a technology of interest with respect to combatting global climate change. This paper combines agent-based modeling (ABM) with life cycle assessment (LCA) to simulate rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption in Los Angeles (LA) County from 2018-2050 and generate CO2 e impact data at the societal level to compare PV and grid electricity. With respect to solar PV panels, consumer adoption is the &quot;pull&quot; that moves the system and corresponding life-cycle CO2 e impacts forward. ABM is used to evaluate the impact of policies and evolutions in technology on the adoption of solar PV. LCA is used to quantify the life-cycle CO2 e impacts of solar PV (including raw materials, manufacturing, and use). The results show that scenarios that increase PV adoption also increase the CO2 e impacts from solar PV use in the short term, due to the raw materials and manufacturing portions of the life cycle. Yet, in the long term, adoption of solar PV may provide CO2 e impact savings from offsetting grid electricity (although this is dependent on the carbon intensity of the electricity sources). The CO2 e impacts of solar panels are dominated by the raw materials and manufacturing phases on a product level basis, but the use phase contributes to the majority of environmental impact savings from an adoption and societal-level perspective. Future work may apply the methodology to other locations in the United States to evaluate if solar panels are an advantageous electricity source compared to the environmental impacts of the electricity grid. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid32678834, year = {2020}, author = {de Moraes, KF and Santos, MPD and Gonçalves, GSR and de Oliveira, GL and Gomes, LB and Lima, MGM}, title = {Climate change and bird extinctions in the Amazon.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e0236103}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0236103}, pmid = {32678834}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {In recent years, carbon dioxide emissions have been potentiated by several anthropogenic processes that culminate in climate change, which in turn directly threatens biodiversity and the resilience of natural ecosystems. Tropical rainforests are among the most impacted biological realms. The Belém endemism center, which is one of the several endemism centers in Amazon, is located in the most affected area within the so-called &quot;Deforestation Arc.&quot; Moreover, this region harbors a high concentration of Amazonian endangered bird species, of which 56% of them are considered to be under the threat of extinction. In this work, we sought to evaluate the current and future impacts of both climate change and deforestation on the distribution of endemic birds in the Belém Area of Endemism (BEA). Thus, we generated species distribution models for the 16 endemic bird species considering the current and two future gas emission scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic). We also evaluated climate change impacts on these birds in three different dispersal contexts. Our results indicate that BAE, the endemic taxa will lose an average of 73% of suitable areas by 2050. At least six of these birds species will have less than 10% or no future suitable habitat in all emission scenarios. One of the main mechanisms used to mitigate the impacts of climate change on these species in the near future is to assess the current system of protected areas. It is necessary to ensure that these areas will continue being effective in conserving these species even under climate change. The &quot;Gurupi Mosaic&quot; and the &quot;Rio-Capim&quot; watershed are areas of great importance because they are considered climate refuges according to our study. Thus, conservation efforts should be directed to the maintenance and preservation of these two large remnants of vegetation in addition to creating ecological corridors between them.}, }
@article {pmid32677074, year = {2020}, author = {LeMoine, MT and Eby, LA and Clancy, CG and Nyce, LG and Jakober, M and Isaak, DJ}, title = {Landscape resistance mediates native fish species distribution shifts and vulnerability to climate change in riverscapes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15281}, pmid = {32677074}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {A broader understanding of how landscape resistance influences climate change vulnerability for many species is needed, as is an understanding of how barriers to dispersal may impact vulnerability. Freshwater biodiversity is at particular risk, but previous studies have focused on popular cold-water fishes (e.g., salmon, trout, and char) with relatively large body sizes and mobility. Those fishes may be able to track habitat change more adeptly than less mobile species. Smaller, less mobile fishes are rarely represented in studies demonstrating effects of climate change, but depending on their thermal tolerance, they may be particularly vulnerable to environmental change. By revisiting 280 sites over a 20-year interval throughout a warming riverscape, we described changes in occupancy (i.e., site extirpation and colonization probabilities) and assessed the environmental conditions associated with those changes for four fishes spanning a range of body sizes, thermal and habitat preferences. Two larger bodied trout species exhibited small changes in site occupancy, with bull trout experiencing a 9.2% (95% CI = 8.3%-10.1%) reduction, mostly in warmer stream reaches, and westslope cutthroat trout experiencing a nonsignificant 1% increase. The small-bodied cool water slimy sculpin, originally distributed broadly throughout the network, experienced a 48.0% (95% CI = 42.0%-54.0%) reduction in site occupancy, with declines common in warmer stream reaches and areas subject to wildfire disturbances. The small-bodied comparatively warmer water longnose dace primarily occupied larger streams and increased its occurrence in the lower portions of connected tributaries during the study period. Distribution shifts for sculpin and dace were significantly constrained by barriers, which included anthropogenic water diversions, natural step-pools and cascades in steeper upstream reaches. Our results suggest that aquatic communities exhibit a range of responses to climate change, and that improving passage and fluvial connectivity will be important climate adaptation tactics for conserving aquatic biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid32669887, year = {2014}, author = {Asekun-Olarinmoye, EO and Bamidele, JO and Odu, OO and Olugbenga-Bello, AI and Abodurin, OL and Adebimpe, WO and Oladele, EA and Adeomi, AA and Adeoye, OA and Ojofeitimi, EO}, title = {Public perception of climate change and its impact on health and environment in rural southwestern Nigeria.}, journal = {Research and reports in tropical medicine}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {1-10}, pmid = {32669887}, issn = {1179-7282}, abstract = {Background: Climate change (CC) has received extensive media attention recently, and it is currently on the international public health agenda. A study of knowledge and attitudes to climate change, most especially from rural Nigerian communities, is important for developing adaptation strategies. This is a study of public perceptions of CC and its impact on health and environment in rural southwestern Nigeria.<br><br>Methods: This was a community-based descriptive cross-sectional study of 1,019 rural respondents using a multistage sampling method. The research instrument used was a pretested, structured, interviewer-administered questionnaire. Data were analyzed using SPSS software. χ2, Cramér's V, and Kendall's τ-c statistics were employed in addition to fitting the data to a logistic regression model to explore associations found significant on bivariate analysis.<br><br>Results: Mean age of respondents was 36.9 (±12.4) years. About 911 (89.4%) of respondents opined that there has been a change in climate in the last 10 years. Supernatural reasons were prominent among respondent-reported causes of CC. Identified risky behavior contributing to CC included smoking (10.7%), bush burning (33.4%), and tree felling (41.0%). Poor knowledge of causes but good knowledge of effects of CC were found in this study. About two-thirds of respondents had a positive attitude to causes of CC, while half had a positive attitude to the effects of CC. A significant association was found between educational status (P˂0.001, Kendall's τ-c=-0.042), occupational status (P˂0.01, Kendall's τ-c=0.088), and attitude to causes of CC. Further analysis using logistic regression showed that occupational status was significantly associated with likelihood of having a positive attitude, but educational status and marital status were not.<br><br>Conclusion: Rural areas of Nigeria are vulnerable to the adverse effects of CC. Respondents' poor knowledge but positive attitude to CC calls for dissemination of adequate information on CC in sustained health-promotion programs.}, }
@article {pmid32674064, year = {2020}, author = {Høye, TT}, title = {Arthropods and climate change - arctic challenges and opportunities.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {41}, number = {}, pages = {40-45}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2020.06.002}, pmid = {32674064}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {The harsh climate, limited human infrastructures, and basic autecological knowledge gaps represent substantial challenges for studying arthropods in the Arctic. At the same time, rapid climate change, low species diversity, and strong collaborative networks provide unique and underexploited Arctic opportunities for understanding species responses to environmental change and testing ecological theory. Here, I provide an overview of individual, population, and ecosystem level responses to climate change in Arctic arthropods. I focus on thermal performance, life history variation, population dynamics, community composition, diversity, and biotic interactions. The species-poor Arctic represents a unique opportunity for testing novel, automated arthropod monitoring methods. The Arctic can also potentially provide insights to further understand and mitigate the effects of climate change on arthropods worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid32673912, year = {2020}, author = {Cao, B and Yin, Z}, title = {Future atmospheric circulations benefit ozone pollution control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei with global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {743}, number = {}, pages = {140645}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140645}, pmid = {32673912}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Surface ozone pollution has become increasingly serious in recent years. Ozone pollution will damage human health and reducing social productivity in China. Basing on an ozone weather index (OWI) that captured the effects of climate on the ground-level ozone, large ensemble simulations by the Community Earth System Model were introduced to project future impacts of atmospheric circulation on ozone pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in late-21st century. In the future, atmospheric circulations will favour the control of ozone pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The OWI decreased overall during the 21st century, which was nearly ignored by other studies on ozone projections. The OWI decrease was mainly due to the increase in regional precipitation and partly due to the changes of wind and the temperature difference between 200 hPa and lower-troposphere. The increased total precipitation in the 21st century, mainly due to the increase in convectional precipitation, weakened the production of surface ozone by its shading effect (related to more cloud cover) and wet deposition impact. During 2061-2100, the South Asia High will move southward, and the west Pacific subtropical high will shift eastward; thus, the convergence of water vapour will mainly occur in South China. Consequently, the large-scale precipitation will decrease over northern China. However, because of climate warming, the increase in specific humidity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTH) will enhance convectional precipitation, which will be more than 4 times the decrease in large-scale precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid32673306, year = {2020}, author = {Cuervo-Robayo, AP and Ureta, C and Gómez-Albores, MA and Meneses-Mosquera, AK and Téllez-Valdés, O and Martínez-Meyer, E}, title = {One hundred years of climate change in Mexico.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e0209808}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0209808}, pmid = {32673306}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Spatial assessments of historical climate change provide information that can be used by scientists to analyze climate variation over time and evaluate, for example, its effects on biodiversity, in order to focus their research and conservation efforts. Despite the fact that there are global climatic databases available at high spatial resolution, they represent a short temporal window that impedes evaluating historical changes of climate and their impacts on biodiversity. To fill this gap, we developed climate gridded surfaces for Mexico for three periods that cover most of the 20th and early 21st centuries: t1-1940 (1910-1949), t2-1970 (1950-1979) and t3-2000 (1980-2009), and used these interpolated surfaces to describe how climate has changed over time, both countrywide and in its 19 biogeographic provinces. Results from our characterization of climate change indicate that the mean annual temperature has increased by nearly 0.2°C on average across the whole country from t2-1970 to t3-2000. However, changes have not been spatially uniform: Nearctic provinces in the north have suffered higher temperature increases than southern tropical regions. Central and southern provinces cooled at the beginning of the 20th century but warmed consistently since the 1970s. Precipitation increased between t1-1940 and t2-1970 across the country, more notably in the northern provinces, and it decreased between t2-1970 and t3-2000 in most of the country. Results on the historical climate conditions in Mexico may be useful for climate change analyses for both environmental and social sciences. Nonetheless, our climatology was based on information from climate stations for which 9.4-36.2% presented inhomogeneities over time probably owing to non-climatic factors, and climate station density changed over time. Therefore, the estimated changes observed in our analysis need to be interpreted cautiously.}, }
@article {pmid32671669, year = {2020}, author = {Vanderkelen, I and Zschleischler, J and Gudmundsson, L and Keuler, K and Rineau, F and Beenaerts, N and Vangronsveld, J and Vicca, S and Thiery, W}, title = {A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01951-8}, pmid = {32671669}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {FWOTM920//Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; Fel-45 15-1//ETH Zürich Foundation/ ; BOF12BR01//Universiteit Hasselt/ ; 08M03VGRJ//Universiteit Hasselt/ ; G0H4AA7N//Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; }, abstract = {Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future. Here, we present a new method for creating realistic climate forcing for manipulation experiments and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron experiment. The new methodology uses data derived from the best available regional climate model projection and consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean air temperature anomalies. We first identified the best-performing regional climate model simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble based on two criteria: (i) highest skill compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. The time window is subsequently selected from the model projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean air temperature of the driving global climate model. The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the projections of the 5-year period in which the global mean air temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The presented methodology can also be applied to other manipulation experiments, aiming at investigating ecosystem responses to realistic future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32671576, year = {2020}, author = {Odom, RH and Ford, WM}, title = {Assessing the Vulnerability of Military Installations in the Coterminous United States to Potential Biome Shifts Resulting from Rapid Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01331-3}, pmid = {32671576}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Climate-change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, and invasive species. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types, and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and late-century time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low-B1, moderate-A1B, and high-A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess installation vulnerability (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation, and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States, and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of training, and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat, and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision-support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses.}, }
@article {pmid32671314, year = {2020}, author = {Rehr, RC and Bandaragoda, C and Zaitchik, BF and Wimberly, MC}, title = {A GeoHealth Response to a Geoscience Community Climate Change Position Statement.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {4}, number = {7}, pages = {e2020GH000265}, pmid = {32671314}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {The American Geophysical Union (AGU) issues position statements reflecting the state of the science and scientific consensus. AGU position statements can be used to support public and institutional policy development, conversations with peers and policymakers, and formal and informal education. The recent climate change position statement, &quot;Society Must Address the Growing Climate Crisis now,&quot; provides important baseline information but lacks detail on critical climate and health impacts and actions for AGU and members. This commentary shares feedback from the AGU's GeoHealth Section and encourages members to use the AGU statement and engage in the comment process for other statements.}, }
@article {pmid32669351, year = {2020}, author = {Green, L and Wood, S and Bellis, MA}, title = {Rising to the triple challenge of covid-19, Brexit, and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {m2798}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.m2798}, pmid = {32669351}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid32669042, year = {2020}, author = {Lahn, B}, title = {Changing climate change: The carbon budget and the modifying-work of the IPCC.}, journal = {Social studies of science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {306312720941933}, doi = {10.1177/0306312720941933}, pmid = {32669042}, issn = {1460-3659}, abstract = {Over the last 10 years, the concept of a global 'carbon budget' of allowable CO2 emissions has become ubiquitous in climate science and policy. Since it was brought to prominence by the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, the carbon budget has changed how climate change is enacted as an issue of public concern, from determining the optimal rate of future emissions to establishing a fixed limit for how much emissions should be allowed before they must be stopped altogether. Exploring the emergence of the carbon budget concept, this article shows how the assessment process of the IPCC has offered scientific experts the means to modify how the climate issue is problematized, and discusses the implications of this 'modifying-work' for the politics of climate change. It finds that the 'modified climate issue' must be seen as an outcome of the ordinary work within established scientific and political institutions, and the agency these institutions afford scientists to enact the issue differently. On this basis, it argues that the case of the carbon budget holds important insights not only for the relationship between climate science and policy, but also for the pragmatist literature on 'issue formation' in STS.}, }
@article {pmid32668537, year = {2020}, author = {Cai, M and Murtazashvili, I and Murtazashvili, JB and Salahodjaev, R}, title = {Patience and climate change mitigation: Global evidence.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {186}, number = {}, pages = {109552}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109552}, pmid = {32668537}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Complex policy problems such as climate mitigation have an economic, political, and social dimension. We focus on one of the social dimensions of climate change mitigation: the link between society-wide patience (future orientation) and adoption of public policies to combat global greenhouse gas emissions. Theoretically, future-oriented societies are more likely to accept current costs in exchange for long-run benefits posed by climate change mitigation than impatient (present-oriented) ones, cooperate in efforts to combat climate change, and support future-oriented governments. We evaluate this claim using evidence from a cross-section of countries. Controlling for other theoretically relevant factors, we find that patient societies are more likely to adopt public policies to mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32668366, year = {2020}, author = {de Azevedo, TS and Lorenz, C and Chiaravalloti-Neto, F and Sallum, MAM}, title = {Kerteszia cruzii and extra-Amazonian malaria in Brazil: Challenges due to climate change in the Atlantic Forest.}, journal = {Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {104456}, doi = {10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104456}, pmid = {32668366}, issn = {1567-7257}, abstract = {Kerteszia cruzii is a sylvatic mosquito and the primary vector of Plasmodium spp., which can cause malaria in humans in areas outside the Amazon River basin in Brazil. Anthropic changes in the natural environments are the major drivers of massive deforestation and local climate change, with serious impacts on the dynamics of mosquito communities and on the risk of acquiring malaria. Considering the lack of information on the dynamics of malaria transmission in areas across the Atlantic Forest biome, where Ke. cruzii is the dominant vector, and the impact of climate drivers of malaria, the present study aimed to: (i) investigate the occurrence and survival rate of Ke. cruzii based on the distinct vegetation profiles found in areas across the coastal region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest biome; (ii) estimate the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and survival rates of P. vivax and P. falciparum parasites in Ke. cruzii under current and future scenarios. The potential distribution of Plasmodium spp. was estimated using simulation analyses under distinct scenarios of average temperature increases from 1 °C to 3.7 °C. Our results showed that two conditions are necessary to explain the occurrence and survival of Ke. cruzii: warm temperature and presence of the Atlantic Forest biome. Moreover, both Plasmodium species showed a tendency to decrease their EIP and increase their estimated survival rates in a scenario of higher temperature. Our findings support that the high-risk malaria areas may include the southern region of the distribution range of the Atlantic Forest biome in the coming years. Despite its limitations and assumptions, the present study provides robust evidence of areas with potential to be impacted by malaria incidence in a future scenario. These areas should be monitored in the next decades regarding the occurrence of the mosquito vector and the potential for malaria persistence and increased occurrence.}, }
@article {pmid32666220, year = {2020}, author = {Fourment, M and Ferrer, M and Barbeau, G and Quénol, H}, title = {Local Perceptions, Vulnerability and Adaptive Responses to Climate Change and Variability in a Winegrowing Region in Uruguay.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01330-4}, pmid = {32666220}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Understanding climate variability in a winegrowing region is fundamental to understanding how its vineyards can adapt to climate change. For Uruguay, studying the vulnerability and adaptive responses of vineyards to climate change and climate variability is relevant due to its winegrowing region's economic importance and cultural heritage. Winegrowers and technical advisors were interviewed to evaluate their perceptions of climate change, vulnerability of their vineyards and how to adapt them. The main results showed that winegrowers had a clear perception of annual climate variability. The respondents highlighted the extreme climate events that had occurred over the previous few years and 71% of them believed that they had increased in frequency. Despite the perception of increase in climate variability in the region, they did not associate it with climate change. Overall, 43% of respondents agreed that changes in certain viticulture practices in recent years could have been due to climate change, especially those related to the preventive use of pesticides. The respondents identified climate risks that resulted in &quot;bad&quot; years for yield and quality (increase in extreme events (e.g., storms, hail), decrease in &quot;cold&quot; units in winter (i.e., temperatures <0 °C), increase in &quot;hot&quot; hours (i.e., >35 °C), increase in precipitation during the growing season and ripening period) as well as their impacts on vineyards. An adaptation matrix was developed from the viticulture practices that the winegrowers used in response to climate variability. Medium- and long-term adaptive responses to climate change can be based on the knowledge of winegrowers and their advisors.}, }
@article {pmid32662693, year = {2020}, author = {Biagioni, B and Annesi-Maesano, I and D'Amato, G and Cecchi, L}, title = {The rising of allergic respiratory diseases in a changing world: from climate change to migration.}, journal = {Expert review of respiratory medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1080/17476348.2020.1794829}, pmid = {32662693}, issn = {1747-6356}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The rising of allergic respiratory diseases (ARDs) suggests a decisive role of environmental factors, that have dramatically changed in the last decades.<br><br>AREAS COVERED: This review addresses various aspects of the external exposome acting on the development, progression, clinical presentation and severity of ARDs. Climate change, air pollution and biodiversity loss act directly and through their complex interactions on atopic risk: reacent foundings on these aspects are discussed herein. The review also focuses on migration studies, underling the possible role of migrant status as an experimental model to study environment effects on atopy onset and progression.<br><br>EXPERT OPINION: Future perspective on this topic include prevention and mitigation strategies in regard to pollution and climate change, improvement of environmental monitoring methods, implementation of public health policies, further advances in &quot;omics&quot; research and knowledge, prospective and immunological research on migrant populations and new policies to face human mobility.}, }
@article {pmid32662439, year = {2020}, author = {Champion, C and Broadhurst, MK and Ewere, EE and Benkendorff, K and Butcherine, P and Wolfe, K and Coleman, MA}, title = {Resilience to the interactive effects of climate change and discard stress in the commercially important blue swimmer crab (Portunus armatus).}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {159}, number = {}, pages = {105009}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105009}, pmid = {32662439}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Globally, millions of people depend on nutritional benefits from seafood consumption, but few studies have tested for effects of near-future climate change on seafood health and quality. Quantitative assessments of the interactive effects of climate change and discarding of fisheries resources are also lacking, despite ~10% of global catches being discarded annually. Utilising the harvested blue swimmer crab (Portunus armatus), we experimentally tested the effects of near-future temperature and salinity treatments under simulated capture and discarding on a suite of health and nutritional quality parameters. We show that nutritional quality (protein, lipids, moisture content and fatty acid composition) was not significantly affected by near-future climate change. Further, stress biomarkers (catalase and glutathione S-transferases activity and glycogen content) did not differ significantly among treatments following simulated capture and discarding. These results support the inherent resilience of P. armatus to short-term environmental change, and indicate that negative physiological responses associated with discarding may not be exacerbated in a future ocean. We suggest that harvested estuarine species, and thus the industries and food security they underpin, may be resilient to the future effects of climate change due to their adaptation to naturally variable habitats.}, }
@article {pmid32662432, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, Z and Capinha, C and Karger, DN and Turon, X and MacIsaac, HJ and Zhan, A}, title = {Impacts of climate change on geographical distributions of invasive ascidians.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {159}, number = {}, pages = {104993}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.104993}, pmid = {32662432}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Ocean warming associated with global climate change renders marine ecosystems susceptible to biological invasions. Here, we used species distribution models to project habitat suitability for eight invasive ascidians under present-day and future climate scenarios. Distance to shore and maximum sea surface temperature were identified as the most important variables affecting species distributions. Results showed that eight ascidians might respond differently to future climate change. Alarmingly, currently colonized areas are much smaller than predicted, suggesting ascidians may expand their invasive ranges. Areas such as Americas, Europe and Western Pacific have high risks of receiving new invasions. In contrast, African coasts, excluding the Mediterranean side, are not prone to new invasions, likely due to the high sea surface temperature there. Our results highlight the importance of climate change impacts on future invasions and the need for accurate modelling of invasion risks, which can be used as guides to develop management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32662211, year = {2020}, author = {Lertzman-Lepofsky, GF and Kissel, AM and Sinervo, B and Palen, WJ}, title = {Water loss and temperature interact to compound amphibian vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15231}, pmid = {32662211}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Canada Summer Jobs/ ; //National Science and Engineering Research Council/ ; //National Park Service George M. Wright Climate Change Youth Initiative Fellowship Award/ ; //North Coast and Cascades Science Learning Network Award/ ; MORA-2014-SCI-0016//NPS/ ; OLYM-2014-SCI-0045//NPS/ ; EF-1241848//NSF/ ; }, abstract = {Ectotherm thermal physiology is frequently used to predict species responses to changing climates, but for amphibians, water loss may be of equal or greater importance. Using physical models, we estimated the frequency of exceeding the thermal optimum (Topt) or critical evaporative water loss (EWLcrit) limits, with and without shade- or water-seeking behaviours. Under current climatic conditions (2002-2012), we predict that harmful thermal (>Topt) and hydric (>EWLcrit) conditions limit the activity of amphibians during ~70% of snow-free days in sunny habitats. By the 2080s, we estimate that sunny and dry habitats will exceed one or both of these physiological limits during 95% of snow-free days. Counterintuitively, we find that while wet environments eliminate the risk of critical EWL, they do not reduce the risk of exceeding Topt (+2% higher). Similarly, while shaded dry environments lower the risk of exceeding Topt , critical EWL limits are still exceeded during 63% of snow-free days. Thus, no single environment that we evaluated can simultaneously reduce both physiological risks. When we forecast both temperature and EWL into the 2080s, both physiological thresholds are exceeded in all habitats during 48% of snow-free days, suggesting that there may be limited opportunity for behaviour to ameliorate climate change. We conclude that temperature and water loss act synergistically, compounding the ecophysiological risk posed by climate change, as the combined effects are more severe than those predicted individually. Our results suggest that predictions of physiological risk posed by climate change that do not account for water loss in amphibians may be severely underestimated and that there may be limited scope for facultative behaviours to mediate rapidly changing environments.}, }
@article {pmid32661979, year = {2020}, author = {Asadgol, Z and Badirzadeh, A and Niazi, S and Mokhayeri, Y and Kermani, M and Mohammadi, H and Gholami, M}, title = {How climate change can affect cholera incidence and prevalence? A systematic review.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09992-7}, pmid = {32661979}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {1874//Iran University of Medical Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Although the number of cholera infection decreased universally, climate change can potentially affect both incidence and prevalence rates of disease in endemic regions. There is considerable consistent evidence, explaining the associations between cholera and climatic variables. However, it is essentially required to compare and interpret these relationships globally. The aim of the present study was to carry out a systematic review in order to identify and appraise the literature concerning the relationship between nonanthropogenic climatic variabilities such as extreme weather- and ocean-related variables and cholera infection rates. The systematic literature review of studies was conducted by using determined search terms via four major electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Scopus) according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach. This search focused on published articles in English-language up to December 31, 2018. A total of 43 full-text studies that met our criteria have been identified and included in our analysis. The reviewed studies demonstrated that cholera incidence is highly attributed to climatic variables, especially rainfall, temperature, sea surface temperature (SST) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The association between cholera incidence and climatic variables has been investigated by a variety of data analysis methodologies, most commonly time series analysis, generalized linear model (GLM), regression analysis, and spatial/GIS. The results of this study assist the policy-makers who provide the efforts for planning and prevention actions in the face of changing global climatic variables.}, }
@article {pmid32660973, year = {2020}, author = {Ledoux, JB and Cruz, F and Gómez-Garrido, J and Antoni, R and Blanc, J and Gómez-Gras, D and Kipson, S and López-Sendino, P and Antunes, A and Linares, C and Gut, M and Alioto, TS and Garrabou, J}, title = {The Genome Sequence of the Octocoral Paramuricea clavata - A Key Resource To Study the Impact of Climate Change in the Mediterranean.}, journal = {G3 (Bethesda, Md.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1534/g3.120.401371}, pmid = {32660973}, issn = {2160-1836}, abstract = {The octocoral, Paramuricea clavata, is a habitat-forming anthozoan with a key ecological role in rocky benthic and biodiversity-rich communities in the Mediterranean and Eastern Atlantic. Shallow populations of P. clavata in the North-Western Mediterranean are severely affected by warming-induced mass mortality events (MMEs). These MMEs have differentially impacted individuals and populations of P. clavata (i.e. varied levels of tissue necrosis and mortality rates) over thousands of kilometers of coastal areas. The eco-evolutionary processes, including genetic factors, contributing to these differential responses remain to be characterized. Here, we sequenced a P. clavata individual with short and long read technologies, producing 169.98 Gb of Illumina paired-end and 3.55 Gb of Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) reads. We obtained a de novo genome assembly accounting for 607 Mb in 64,145 scaffolds. The contig and scaffold N50s are 19.15 Kb and 23.92 Kb, respectively. Despite of the low contiguity of the assembly, its gene completeness is relatively high, including 75.8% complete and 9.4% fragmented genes out of the 978 metazoan genes contained in the metazoa_odb9 database. A total of 62,652 protein-coding genes have been annotated. This assembly is one of the few octocoral genomes currently available. This is undoubtedly a valuable resource for characterizing the genetic bases of the differential responses to thermal stress and for the identification of thermo-resistant individuals and populations. Overall, having the genome of P. clavata will facilitate studies of various aspects of its evolutionary ecology and elaboration of effective conservation plans such as active restoration to overcome the threats of global change.}, }
@article {pmid32658689, year = {2020}, author = {Kim, JH and Kim, N and Moon, H and Lee, S and Jeong, SY and Diaz-Pulido, G and Edwards, MS and Kang, JH and Kang, EJ and Oh, HJ and Hwang, JD and Kim, IN}, title = {Global warming offsets the ecophysiological stress of ocean acidification on temperate crustose coralline algae.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {157}, number = {}, pages = {111324}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111324}, pmid = {32658689}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {Dramatic increases in the release of anthropogenic CO2 and global temperatures have resulted in alterations to seawater carbonate chemistry and metabolisms of marine organisms. There has been recent interest in the effects of these stressors on crustose coralline algae (CCA) because photosynthesis and calcification are influenced by all components of carbonate chemistry. To examine this, a mesocosm experiment was conducted to evaluate photosynthesis, calcification and growth in the temperate CCA Chamberlainium sp. under acidification (doubled CO2), warming (+5 °C), and greenhouse (doubled CO2 and +5 °C) conditions compared to present-day conditions. After 47 days of acclimation to these conditions, productivity was lowest under acidification, although photochemical properties were improved, while respiration was highest under warming. Likewise, growth was lowest under acidification, but this negative response was offset by elevated temperature under greenhouse. Together, these results suggest that warming offsets the negative effects of acidification by creating more suitable conditions for photosynthesis and growth.}, }
@article {pmid32657822, year = {2020}, author = {Shapiro, LT and Jimenez, V and Espinel, Z and Galea, S and Kossin, JP and Shultz, JM}, title = {Preparing Survivors of Traumatic Brain Injury for Catastrophic Hurricanes in the Time of Climate Change.}, journal = {The Journal of head trauma rehabilitation}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/HTR.0000000000000571}, pmid = {32657822}, issn = {1550-509X}, }
@article {pmid32654046, year = {2020}, author = {Rollins, HB and Benard, MF}, title = {Challenges in predicting the outcome of competition based on climate change-induced phenological and body size shifts.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-020-04705-w}, pmid = {32654046}, issn = {1432-1939}, abstract = {Climate change is creating warmer, earlier springs, which are causing the phenology of many organisms to shift. Additionally, as temperatures increase, the body size of many ectotherms is decreasing. However, phenological and body size shifts are not occurring at the same rates across species, even in species that live in close proximity or have similar life history. Differing rates of phenological and body-size shifts may affect ecological interactions. We investigated whether shifts in phenology and body size had a predictable effect on interspecific competition. We tested three hypotheses. First, priority effects would indicate early arriving organisms gain a competitive advantage. Second, larger organisms would be competitively superior. Third, similarly sized organisms would compete more strongly. We manipulated aquatic larval conditions to create variation in wood frog (Rana sylvatica) size at and date of metamorphosis. Wood frogs were placed in terrestrial enclosures with unmanipulated juvenile American toads (Anaxyrus americanus) where we tracked amphibian growth over 3 months. Consistent with the size superiority hypothesis, initially smaller wood frogs did not compete as strongly with toads. However, the results of the phenological shift were the opposite of our priority effects prediction: early arrival by frogs increased toad mass. Our results could indicate that toads would experience fewer negative effects of competition with wood frogs that metamorphose earlier and smaller under climate change. Our study highlights the challenges of predicting how climate change will affect interspecific interactions and emphasizes the need to investigate the role of shifts in both phenology and body size.}, }
@article {pmid32650875, year = {2020}, author = {Hastings, M}, title = {Climate Change Impact and the Role of the Emergency Nurse.}, journal = {Journal of emergency nursing}, volume = {46}, number = {4}, pages = {407-409}, doi = {10.1016/j.jen.2020.05.007}, pmid = {32650875}, issn = {1527-2966}, }
@article {pmid32649915, year = {2020}, author = {Bogdziewicz, M and Kelly, D and Tanentzap, AJ and Thomas, PA and Lageard, JGA and Hacket-Pain, A}, title = {Climate Change Strengthens Selection for Mast Seeding in European Beech.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2020.06.056}, pmid = {32649915}, issn = {1879-0445}, abstract = {Climate change is altering patterns of seed production worldwide [1-4], but the potential for evolutionary responses to these changes is poorly understood. Masting (synchronous, annually variable seed production by plant populations) is selectively beneficial through economies of scale that decrease the cost of reproduction per surviving offspring [5-7]. Masting is particularly widespread in temperate trees [8, 9] impacting food webs, macronutrient cycling, carbon storage, and human disease risk [10-12], so understanding its response to climate change is important. Here, we analyze inter-individual variability in plant reproductive patterns and two economies of scale-predator satiation and pollination efficiency-and document how natural selection acting upon them favors masting. Four decades of observations for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) show that predator satiation and pollination efficiency select for individuals with higher inter-annual variability of reproduction and higher reproductive synchrony between individuals. This result confirms the long-standing theory that masting, a population-level phenomenon, is generated by selection on individuals. Furthermore, recent climate-driven increases in mean seed production have increased selection pressure from seed predators but not from pollination efficiency. Natural selection is thus acting to restore the fitness benefits of masting, which have previously decreased under a warming climate [13]. However, selection will likely take far longer (centuries) than climate warming (decades), so in the short-term, tree reproduction will be reduced because masting has become less effective at satiating seed predators. Over the long-term, evolutionary responses to climate change could potentially increase inter-annual variability of seed production of masting species.}, }
@article {pmid32646983, year = {2020}, author = {Babin, M}, title = {Climate change tweaks Arctic marine ecosystems.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {369}, number = {6500}, pages = {137-138}, doi = {10.1126/science.abd1231}, pmid = {32646983}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid32645233, year = {2020}, author = {Prietzel, J and Falk, W and Reger, B and Uhl, E and Pretzsch, H and Zimmermann, L}, title = {Half a century of Scots pine forest ecosystem monitoring reveals long-term effects of atmospheric deposition and climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15265}, pmid = {32645233}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {At two forest sites in Germany (Pfaffenwinkel, Pustert) stocked with mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), we investigated changes of topsoil chemistry during the recent forty years by soil inventories conducted on replicated control plots of fertilization experiments, allowing a statistical analysis. Additionally, we monitored the nutritional status of both stands from 1964 until 2019 and quantified stand growth during the monitoring period by repeated stand inventories. Moreover, we monitored climate variables (air temperature, precipitation) and calculated annual climatic water balances from 1991 to 2019. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition between 1964 and 2019 was estimated for the period 1969-2019 by combining annual deposition measurements conducted in 1985-1987 and 2004 with long-term deposition records from long-term forest monitoring stations. We investigated interrelations between topsoil chemistry, stand nutrition, stand growth, deposition, and climate trends. At both sites, the onset of the new millennium was a turning point of important biogeochemical processes. Topsoil acidification turned into re-alkalinization, soil organic matter (SOM) accumulation stopped and likely turned into SOM depletion. In the new millennium, topsoil stocks of S and plant-available phosphorus (P) as well as S and P concentrations in Scots pine foliage decreased substantially; yet age-referenced stand growth remained at levels far above those expected from yield table data. Tree P and S nutrition as well as climate change (increased temperature and drought stress) have replaced soil acidification as major future challenges for both forests. Understanding of P and S cycling and water fluxes in forest ecosystems, and consideration of these issues in forest management are important for successfully tackling the new challenges. Our study illustrates the importance of long-term forest monitoring to identify slow, but substantial changes of forest biogeochemistry driven by natural and anthropogenic global change.}, }
@article {pmid32645189, year = {2020}, author = {Price, S}, title = {The Temperature&#39;s Rising: Preparing for the Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {Texas medicine}, volume = {116}, number = {5}, pages = {18-23}, pmid = {32645189}, issn = {1938-3223}, abstract = {In Texas, climate change has been blamed for contributing to the severity of several weather and health events, including the 2011 statewide drought, the 2012 outbreak of West Nile virus in Dallas, Hurricane Harvey in 2017, and the steadily increasing prevalence of vector-borne diseases like Zika and chikungunya. Here are some of the most important climate-related health problems Texas physicians can expect according to climate scientists and the physician experts Texas Medicine spoke to.}, }
@article {pmid32643822, year = {2020}, author = {Charles, K and Stehlik, I}, title = {Assisted species migration and hybridization to conserve cold-adapted plants under climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.13583}, pmid = {32643822}, issn = {1523-1739}, abstract = {The temperature rise due to climate change is rendering many arctic and alpine plants at risk of extinction because their ability to react is outpaced by the speed of climate change. We discuss assisted species migration (ASM) and hybridization as methods to conserve cold-adapted species (or the genes thereof) and to minimize the potential perturbation of ecosystems due to climate change. ASM is the deliberate movement of individuals from their current location to where species' ecological requirements will be matched under climate projections. Hybridization refers to crossbreeding of closely related species, where for arctic and alpine plants, one parent is the threatened cold-adapted and the other its reproductively compatible, warm-adapted sibling. Traditionally, hybridization is viewed as negative and leading to a loss of biodiversity, even though hybridization has increased biodiversity over geological times. Furthermore, the incorporation of warm-adapted genes into a hybrid might be the only means for the persistence of an increasingly more maladapted cold-adapted species. If approached with thorough consideration of fitness-related parameters of the source population and the acknowledgement of the important role hybridization has played to shape the current biodiversity, ASM and hybridization could help save partial or whole genomes of key cold-adapted species at risk due to climate change with minimal negative effects on ecosystem functioning. Article Impact Statement: Assisted species migration and hybridization should be seen as positive mechanisms for saving some arctic and alpine plants, or genes thereof. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid32643198, year = {2020}, author = {McCann, BT and Davis, JM and Osborne, D and Durham, C and O'Brien, M and Raymond, NA}, title = {Quantifying climate change relevant humanitarian programming and spending across five highly disaster vulnerable countries.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/disa.12453}, pmid = {32643198}, issn = {1467-7717}, abstract = {Climate change is increasing the severity and frequency of natural hazards and associated disasters worldwide, yet there is little data tracking how and whether it is being addressed by humanitarian assistance programs. Using publicly available United Nations program data and vulnerability indexes, this study pilots a novel approach for identifying and quantifying the prevalence of climate change-related humanitarian programs from 2016-2018 in five disaster-affected countries. Funding levels of proposed and undertaken interventions were analyzed within specific programmatic sub-areas and across clusters. We found that 1.8% (99 / 5558) of projects included in humanitarian proposals reviewed by the study have a climate change-related component. Of 1361 funded projects, 40 of these projects were climate related and received funding. Methodologies piloted here for assessing and classifying climate change-related humanitarian programs could be expanded to support further tracking of humanitarian responses to climate change across operational contexts. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid32642628, year = {2020}, author = {Anenberg, SC and Bindl, M and Brauer, M and Castillo, JJ and Cavalieri, S and Duncan, BN and Fiore, AM and Fuller, R and Goldberg, DL and Henze, DK and Hess, J and Holloway, T and James, P and Jin, X and Kheirbek, I and Kinney, PL and Liu, Y and Mohegh, A and Patz, J and Jimenez, MP and Roy, A and Tong, D and Walker, K and Watts, N and West, JJ}, title = {Using Satellites to Track Indicators of Global Air Pollution and Climate Change Impacts: Lessons Learned From a NASA-Supported Science-Stakeholder Collaborative.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {4}, number = {7}, pages = {e2020GH000270}, doi = {10.1029/2020GH000270}, pmid = {32642628}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {The 2018 NASA Health and Air Quality Applied Science Team (HAQAST) &quot;Indicators&quot; Tiger Team collaboration between NASA-supported scientists and civil society stakeholders aimed to develop satellite-derived global air pollution and climate indicators. This Commentary shares our experience and lessons learned. Together, the team developed methods to track wildfires, dust storms, pollen counts, urban green space, nitrogen dioxide concentrations and asthma burdens, tropospheric ozone concentrations, and urban particulate matter mortality. Participatory knowledge production can lead to more actionable information but requires time, flexibility, and continuous engagement. Ground measurements are still needed for ground truthing, and sustained collaboration over time remains a challenge.}, }
@article {pmid32641856, year = {2020}, author = {Louppe, V and Leroy, B and Herrel, A and Veron, G}, title = {Author Correction: The globally invasive small Indian mongoose Urva auropunctata is likely to spread with climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {11595}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-68558-2}, pmid = {32641856}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32641818, year = {2020}, author = {Lehmann, J and Possinger, A}, title = {Removal of atmospheric CO2 by rock weathering holds promise for mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {583}, number = {7815}, pages = {204-205}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-01965-7}, pmid = {32641818}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32640918, year = {2020}, author = {Mena, CS and Artz, M and Llanten, C}, title = {Climate change and global health: a medical anthropology perspective.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {140}, number = {4}, pages = {196-197}, doi = {10.1177/1757913919897943}, pmid = {32640918}, issn = {1757-9147}, }
@article {pmid32640654, year = {2020}, author = {Yu, H and Bian, Z and Mu, S and Yuan, J and Chen, F}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Land Cover Change and Vegetation Dynamics in Xinjiang, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {13}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph17134865}, pmid = {32640654}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {U1903209//Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Since the Silk-road Economic belt initiatives were proposed, Xinjiang has provided a vital strategic link between China and Central Asia and even Eurasia. However, owing to the weak and vulnerable ecosystem in this arid region, even a slight climate change would probably disrupt vegetation dynamics and land cover change. Thus, there is an urgent need to determine the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land-use/Land-cover (LULC) responses to climate change. Here, the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method and linear regression method (LRM) were applied to recognize the variation trends of the NDVI, temperature, and precipitation between the growing season and other seasons. Combining the transfer matrix of LULC, the Pearson correlation analysis was utilized to reveal the response of NDVI to climate change and climate extremes. The results showed that: (1) Extreme temperature showed greater variation than extreme precipitation. Both the ESMD and the LRM exhibited an increased volatility trend for the NDVI, with the significant improvement regions mainly located in the margin of basins. (2) Since climate change had a warming trend, the permanent snow has been reduced by 20,436 km2. The NDVI has a higher correlation to precipitation than temperature. Furthermore, the humid trend could provide more suitable conditions for vegetation growth, but the warm trend might prevent vegetation growth. Spatially, the response of the NDVI in North Xinjiang (NXC) was more sensitive to precipitation than that in South Xinjiang (SXC). Seasonally, the NDVI has a greater correlation to precipitation in spring and summer, but the opposite occurs in autumn. (3) The response of the NDVI to extreme precipitation was stronger than the response to extreme temperature. The reduction in diurnal temperature variation was beneficial to vegetation growth. Therefore, continuous concentrated precipitation and higher night-time-temperatures could enhance vegetation growth in Xinjiang. This study could enrich the understanding of the response of land cover change and vegetation dynamics to climate extremes and provide scientific support for eco-environment sustainable management in the arid regions.}, }
@article {pmid32638113, year = {2020}, author = {Berberoglu, S and Cilek, A and Kirkby, M and Irvine, B and Donmez, C}, title = {Spatial and temporal evaluation of soil erosion in Turkey under climate change scenarios using the Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA) model.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {8}, pages = {491}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08429-5}, pmid = {32638113}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {110Y338//Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştirma Kurumu/ ; FBA-2019-10983//Scientific Projects Administrator Unit of Cukurova University/ ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on soil erosion are mainly caused by the changes in the amount and intensity of rainfall and rising temperature. The combination of rainfall and temperature change is likely to be accompanied by negative or positive variations in agricultural and forest management. Turkey contains vast fertile plains, high mountain chains and semi-arid lands, with a climate that ranges from marine to continental and therefore is susceptible to soil erosion under climate change, particularly on high gradients and in semi-arid areas. This study aims to model the soil erosion risk under climate change scenarios in Turkey using the Pan-European Soil Erosion Assessment (PESERA) model, predicting the likely effects of land use/cover and climate change on sediment transport and soil erosion in the country. For this purpose, PESERA was applied to estimate the monthly and annual soil loss for 12 land use/cover types in Turkey. The model inputs included 128 variables derived from soil, climate, land use/cover and topography data. The total soil loss from the land surface is speculated to be approximately 285.5 million tonnes per year. According to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report of four climate change scenarios, the total soil losses were predicted as 308.9, 323.5, 320.3 and 355.3 million tonnes for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively from 2060 to 2080. The predicted amounts of fertile soil loss from agricultural land in a year were predicted to be 55.5 million tonnes at present, and 62.7, 59.9, 61.7 and 58.1 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 respectively. This confirms that approximately 30% of the total erosion occurs over the agricultural lands. In this respect, degraded forests, scrub and arable lands were subjected to the highest erosion rate (68%) of the total, whereas, fruit trees and berry plantations reflected the lowest erosion rates. Low soil organic carbon, sparse vegetation cover and variable climatic conditions significantly enhanced the erosion of the cultivated lands by primarily removing the potential food for organisms. Finally, process-based models offer a valuable resource for decision-makers when improving environmental management schemes and also decrease uncertainty when considering risks.}, }
@article {pmid32636507, year = {2019}, author = {Gaind, N}, title = {Climate activists turn to lawsuits to force action on global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02121-6}, pmid = {32636507}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32635435, year = {2020}, author = {Ray, C and Ming, X}, title = {Climate Change and Human Health: A Review of Allergies, Autoimmunity and the Microbiome.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {13}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph17134814}, pmid = {32635435}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {The impact of climate change on human health is a topic of critical importance. While only recently beginning to gain attention, it is clear that immediate action is necessary to minimize this impact. In our review, we will outline a subset of these effects in detail. We will examine how climate change has worsened respiratory allergic disease. We will discuss how climate change has altered antigen exposure, possibly disrupting antigen-specific tolerance by the immune system, leading, in turn, to an increase in the prevalence of immunologic diseases. Finally, we will explore how the loss of biodiversity related to climate change may affect the microbiome, potentially leading to dysbiosis, inflammatory, autoimmune and neurologic diseases.}, }
@article {pmid32635256, year = {2020}, author = {Shi, Z and Huang, H and Wu, Y and Chiu, YH and Qin, S}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Crop Disaster Area in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {13}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph17134792}, pmid = {32635256}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {(19YJC790112)//Ministry of Education Humanistic and Social Science Research Youth Funds/ ; (2020QG1206).//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; }, abstract = {As one of the largest agricultural countries in the world, China has always paid close attention to the sustainable development of agricultural production efficiency. However, with global climate change, extreme weather has become an exogenous factor that cannot be ignored, as it affects agricultural production. Most of the existing studies only consider the domestic natural resources and economic factors, without fully considering the external climate factors. This paper uses the super undesirable dynamic Slacks-Based Measures (SBM) under an exogenous variable model to simulate the external environmental factors by adding extreme weather days. The Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation are used to explore the regional differences in agricultural production in China. The results show that the agricultural production efficiency is higher in the eastern region, and the difference in agricultural production efficiency among the provinces in the middle and western regions is large, showing a trend of polarization. The difference in the Gini coefficient between the middle and western regions is more significant. The main contribution factor of the Dagum Gini coefficient is the inter-regional difference. The regional concentration degree of agriculture in China is decreasing, the regional distribution of agricultural water resources is more balanced, and the national regional difference gradually decreases. Finally, some suggestions are put forward, such as extreme weather control, agricultural water supply, and water-saving measures.}, }
@article {pmid32632156, year = {2020}, author = {Jarić, I and Bellard, C and Courchamp, F and Kalinkat, G and Meinard, Y and Roberts, DL and Correia, RA}, title = {Societal attention toward extinction threats: a comparison between climate change and biological invasions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {11085}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-67931-5}, pmid = {32632156}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {J. E. Purkyně Fellowship//Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic/ ; Invacost//ANR and the Foundation BNP Paribas/ ; AlienScenarios//Biodiversa/ ; }, abstract = {Public attention and interest in the fate of endangered species is a crucial prerequisite for effective conservation programs. Societal awareness and values will largely determine whether conservation initiatives receive necessary support and lead to adequate policy change. Using text data mining, we assessed general public attention in France, Germany and the United Kingdom toward climate change and biological invasions in relation to endangered amphibian, reptile, bird and mammal species. Our analysis revealed that public attention patterns differed among species groups and countries but was globally higher for climate change than for biological invasions. Both threats received better recognition in threatened than in non-threatened species, as well as in native species than in species from other countries and regions. We conclude that more efficient communication regarding the threat from biological invasions should be developed, and that conservation practitioners should take advantage of the existing attention toward climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32631981, year = {2020}, author = {Cordes, LS and Blumstein, DT and Armitage, KB and CaraDonna, PJ and Childs, DZ and Gerber, BD and Martin, JGA and Oli, MK and Ozgul, A}, title = {Contrasting effects of climate change on seasonal survival of a hibernating mammal.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1918584117}, pmid = {32631981}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Seasonal environmental conditions shape the behavior and life history of virtually all organisms. Climate change is modifying these seasonal environmental conditions, which threatens to disrupt population dynamics. It is conceivable that climatic changes may be beneficial in one season but result in detrimental conditions in another because life-history strategies vary between these time periods. We analyzed the temporal trends in seasonal survival of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and explored the environmental drivers using a 40-y dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA). Trends in survival revealed divergent seasonal patterns, which were similar across age-classes. Marmot survival declined during winter but generally increased during summer. Interestingly, different environmental factors appeared to drive survival trends across age-classes. Winter survival was largely driven by conditions during the preceding summer and the effect of continued climate change was likely to be mainly negative, whereas the likely outcome of continued climate change on summer survival was generally positive. This study illustrates that seasonal demographic responses need disentangling to accurately forecast the impacts of climate change on animal population dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid32629267, year = {2020}, author = {Scheidl, C and Heiser, M and Kamper, S and Thaler, T and Klebinder, K and Nagl, F and Lechner, V and Markart, G and Rammer, W and Seidl, R}, title = {The influence of climate change and canopy disturbances on landslide susceptibility in headwater catchments.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {742}, number = {}, pages = {140588}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140588}, pmid = {32629267}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Forests have an important regulating function on water runoff and the occurrence of shallow landslides. Their structure and composition directly influence the risk of hydrogeomorphic processes, like floods with high sediment transport or debris flows. Climate change is substantially altering forest ecosystems, and for Central Europe an increase in natural disturbances from wind and insect outbreaks is expected for the future. How such changes impact the regulating function of forest ecosystems remains unclear. By combining methods from forestry, hydrology and geotechnical engineering we investigated possible effects of changing climate and disturbance regimes on shallow landslides. We simulated forest landscapes in two headwater catchments in the Eastern Alps of Austria under four different future climate scenarios over 200 years. Our results indicate that climate-mediated changes in forest dynamics can substantially alter the protective function of forest ecosystems. Climate change generally increased landslide risk in our simulations. Only when future warming coincided with drying landslide risk decreased relative to historic conditions. In depth analyses showed that an important driver of future landslide risk was the simulated vegetation composition. Trajectories away from flat rooting Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests currently dominating the system towards an increasing proportion of tree species with heart and taproot systems, increased root cohesion and reduced the soil volume mobilized in landslides. Natural disturbances generally reduced landslide risk in our simulations, with the positive effect of accelerated tree species change and increasing root cohesion outweighing a potential negative effect of disturbances on the water cycle. We conclude that while the efficacy of green infrastructure such as protective forests could be substantially reduced by climate change, such systems also have a strong inherent ability to adapt to changing conditions. Forest management should foster this adaptive capacity to strengthen the protective function of forests also under changing environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32628406, year = {2020}, author = {Van Norman, GA and Jackson, S}, title = {The anesthesiologist and global climate change: an ethical obligation to act.}, journal = {Current opinion in anaesthesiology}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {577-583}, doi = {10.1097/ACO.0000000000000887}, pmid = {32628406}, issn = {1473-6500}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Pollution and global warming/climate change contribute to one-quarter of all deaths worldwide. Global healthcare as a whole is the world's fifth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and anesthetic gases, intravenous agents and supplies contribute significantly to the overall problem. It is the ethical obligation of all anesthesiologists to minimize the harmful impact of anesthesia practice on environmental sustainability.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Focused programs encouraging judicious selection of the use of anesthetic gas agents has been shown to reduce CO2 equivalent emissions by 64%, with significant cost savings. Good gas flow management reduces nonscavenged anesthetic gas significantly, and has been shown to decrease the consumption of volatile anesthetic agent by about one-fifth. New devices may allow for recapture, reclamation and recycling of waste anesthetic gases. For propofol, a nonbiodegradable, environmentally toxic agent, simply changing the size of vials on formulary has been shown to reduce wasted agent by 90%.<br><br>SUMMARY: The 5 R's of waste minimization in the operating room (OR) (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle, Rethink and Research) have proven benefit in reducing the environmental impact of the practice of anesthesiology, as well as in reducing costs.}, }
@article {pmid32628332, year = {2020}, author = {Falconnier, GN and Corbeels, M and Boote, KJ and Affholder, F and Adam, M and MacCarthy, DS and Ruane, AC and Nendel, C and Whitbread, AM and Justes, E and Ahuja, LR and Akinseye, FM and Alou, IN and Amouzou, KA and Anapalli, SS and Baron, C and Basso, B and Baudron, F and Bertuzzi, P and Challinor, AJ and Chen, Y and Deryng, D and Elsayed, ML and Faye, B and Gaiser, T and Galdos, M and Gayler, S and Gerardeaux, E and Giner, M and Grant, B and Hoogenboom, G and Ibrahim, ES and Kamali, B and Kersebaum, KC and Kim, SH and van der Laan, M and Leroux, L and Lizaso, JI and Maestrini, B and Meier, EA and Mequanint, F and Ndoli, A and Porter, CH and Priesack, E and Ripoche, D and Sida, T and Singh, U and Smith, W and Srivastava, A and Sinha, S and Tao, F and Thorburn, PJ and Timlin, D and Traore, B and Twine, T and Webber, H}, title = {Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15261}, pmid = {32628332}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multi-model assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2 ], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N ha-1) for five environments in SSA, including cool sub-humid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot sub-humid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from two-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average rRMSE of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2 ], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2 ], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.}, }
@article {pmid32627675, year = {2020}, author = {Iniguez-Gallardo, V and Bride, I and Tzanopoulos, J}, title = {Between concepts and experiences: understandings of climate change in southern Ecuador.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {963662520936088}, doi = {10.1177/0963662520936088}, pmid = {32627675}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {For decades, researchers have worried about people's understanding of climate change. Although this understanding varies by cultural context, most studies so far have taken place in industrialised countries. Few studies have explored understandings of climate change in the global South. Through standardised questionnaires and semi-structured interviews conducted in southern Ecuador, this article explores differences between urban and rural dwellers and compares these with farmers' understandings of the causes, consequences and risks. We found urban and rural dwellers hold a similar understanding to that found in other nations, but articulated in ways that reflect their particular realities. Despite reporting firsthand experience of the agricultural effects of climate change, when prompted, farmers do not link climate change to their own experience. It is thus important to go beyond judging knowledge as correct or incorrect, and instead, incorporate local realities in the climate narrative.}, }
@article {pmid32627262, year = {2020}, author = {Bello-Rodríguez, V and Mateo, RG and Pellissier, L and Cubas, J and Cooke, B and González-Mancebo, JM}, title = {Forecasted increase in invasive rabbit spread into ecosystems of an oceanic island (Tenerife) under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e2206}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2206}, pmid = {32627262}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {The European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) is a pest and a conservation problem on many islands, where its heavy grazing pressure threatens many endemic plants with extinction. Previous studies in its native and introduced range have highlighted the high spatial variability of rabbit abundance at local and landscape scales, depending on many factors such as the existence of different habitats. Modeling of the species can be useful to better-understand spatial patterns and to prioritize actions, especially in those regions in which has become invasive. Here, we investigate the distribution of the European rabbit in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain), where the species was introduced during the XV century and has subsequently changed vegetation composition. Added to the direct effects of rabbits on vegetation, climate change could also have implications on rabbit populations, especially in the alpine ecosystem. To evaluate that, we estimated rabbit abundance in 216 plots randomly distributed on Tenerife island (61 in the alpine ecosystem), modeled the potential current spatial abundance of the species and considered how it might vary under different climate change scenarios. We associated rabbit abundance to a wide selection of abiotic, biotic and human variables expected to influence rabbit abundance on the island. We found a positive correlation between rabbit abundance and temperature and a negative correlation in the case of precipitation. Hence, according to the models' projections, climate change is expected to enhance rabbit populations in the future. Current higher densities were related to land disturbance and open areas, and a remarkable increase is expected to occur in the alpine ecosystem. Overall, we consider that this study provides valuable information for land managers in the Canary archipelago as it reveals how global warming could indirectly exacerbate the conservation problems of the endemic flora in oceanic islands.}, }
@article {pmid32623765, year = {2020}, author = {Durant, JM and Ono, K and Stenseth, NC and Langangen, Ø}, title = {Non-linearity in interspecific interactions in response to climate change: cod and haddock as an example.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15264}, pmid = {32623765}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change has profound ecological effects, yet our understanding of how trophic interactions among species are affected by climate change is still patchy. The sympatric Atlantic haddock and cod are co-occurring across the North Atlantic. They compete for food at younger stages and thereafter the former is preyed by the latter but climate change might affect the interaction and coexistence of these two species. Particularly, the increase of sea temperature has been shown to affect distribution, population growth and trophic interactions in marine systems. We used 33-year long time series of haddock and cod abundances estimates from two data sources (acoustic and trawl survey) to analyse the dynamic effect of climate on the coexistence of these two sympatric species in the Arcto-Boreal Barents Sea. Using a Bayesian state-space threshold model, we demonstrated that long-term climate variation, as expressed by changes of sea temperature, affected species demography through different influences on density-independent processes. The interaction between cod and haddock has shifted in the last two decades due to an increase in sea temperature, altering the equilibrium abundances and the dynamics of the system. During warm years (sea temperature over ca 4°C), the increase of the cod abundance negatively affected haddock abundance while it did not during cold years. This change in interactions therefore changed the equilibrium population size with a higher population size during warm years. Our analyses show that long-term climate change in the Arcto-Boreal system can generate differences in the equilibrium conditions of species assemblages.}, }
@article {pmid32623280, year = {2020}, author = {Clayton, S}, title = {Climate anxiety: Psychological responses to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of anxiety disorders}, volume = {74}, number = {}, pages = {102263}, doi = {10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102263}, pmid = {32623280}, issn = {1873-7897}, abstract = {Climate change will affect psychological wellbeing. Substantial research has documented harmful impacts on physical health, mental health, and social relations from exposure to extreme weather events that are associated with climate change. Recently, attention has turned to the possible effects of climate change on mental health through emotional responses such as increased anxiety. This paper discusses the nature of climate anxiety and some evidence for its existence, and speculates about ways to address it. Although climate anxiety appears to be a real phenomenon that deserves clinical attention, it is important to distinguish between adaptive and maladaptive levels of anxiety. A focus on individual mental health should not distract attention from the societal response that is necessary to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32623168, year = {2020}, author = {Gebrechorkos, SH and Bernhofer, C and Hülsmann, S}, title = {Climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of a large river basin in Ethiopia using a local-scale climate modelling approach.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {742}, number = {}, pages = {140504}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140504}, pmid = {32623168}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Local-scale climate change adaptation is receiving more attention to reduce the adverse effects of climate change. The process of developing adaptation measures at local-scale (e.g., river basins) requires high-quality climate information with higher resolution. Climate projections are available at a coarser spatial resolution from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and require spatial downscaling and bias correction to drive hydrological models. We used the hybrid multiple linear regression and stochastic weather generator model (Statistical Down-Scaling Model, SDSM) to develop a location-based climate projection, equivalent to future station data, from GCMs. Meteorological data from 24 ground stations and the most accurate satellite and reanalysis products identified for the region, such as Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data were used. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impacts of the projected climate on hydrology. Both SDSM and SWAT were calibrated and validated using the observed climate and streamflow data, respectively. Climate projection based on SDSM, in one of the large and agricultural intensive basins in Ethiopia (i.e., Awash), show high variability in precipitation but an increase in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature, which agrees with global warming. On average, the projection shows an increase in annual precipitation (>10%), Tmax (>0.4 °C), Tmin (>0.2 °C) and streamflow (>34%) in the 2020s (2011-2040), 2050s (2041-2070), and 2080s (2071-2100) under RCP2.6-RCP8.5. Although no significant trend in precipitation is found, streamflow during March-May and June-September is projected to increase throughout the 21 century by an average of more than 1.1% and 24%, respectively. However, streamflow is projected to decrease during January-February and October-November by more than 6%. Overall, considering the projected warming and changes in seasonal flow, local-scale adaptation measures to limit the impact on agriculture, water and energy sectors are required.}, }
@article {pmid32623164, year = {2020}, author = {Jermacz, Ł and Kletkiewicz, H and Krzyżyńska, K and Klimiuk, M and Kobak, J}, title = {Does global warming intensify cost of antipredator reaction? A case study of freshwater amphipods.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {742}, number = {}, pages = {140474}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140474}, pmid = {32623164}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global warming is a worldwide phenomenon affecting the functioning of diverse ecosystems, including fresh waters. Temperature increase affects physiology and behaviour of ectotherms due to growing energetic demands necessary to sustain increased metabolic rate. Anti-predator responses may resemble temperature-induced changes in organisms, suggesting synergism between these factors. To check how temperature shapes physiological and behavioural responses of ectotherms to predation risk, we exposed amphipods: Dikerogammarus villosus and Gammarus jazdzewskii to fish kairomones at 10, 17 or 24 °C. Animals were placed in tanks where temperature was gradually adjusted to the desired test temperature and acclimated under such conditions for 3 subsequent days. Then they were exposed to the predator cue (the Eurasian perch kairomone) for 35 min to test their acute responses. We measured metabolic rate (as respiration), antioxidant defence (CAT: catalase activity, TAS: total antioxidant status), oxidative molecules (TOS: total oxidative status), oxidative damage (TBARS: thiobarbituric acid reactive substances) and behaviour (locomotor activity). Amphipods increased respiration with raising temperature and when exposed to predation risk (all temperatures). Only G. jazdzewskii exhibited increased TOS when exposed to 24 °C or to predation risk at all temperatures. Antioxidant defence increased with raising temperature (CAT, TAS) and decreased under predation risk (CAT). Cellular damage increased in G. jazdzewskii under predation risk at 10 and 24 °C, but raised temperature itself did not generate any damage. Amphipods reduced locomotor activity at 24 °C. Thus, at elevated temperatures, amphipods minimized their cellular damage at the cost of increased antioxidant defence and lower locomotor activity (potentially disadvantageous under higher energetic demands). Under predation risk, the performance of antioxidant systems was reduced, probably due to energy allocation into anti-predatory mechanisms, leading to increased cellular damage at suboptimum temperatures. Thus, negative consequences of elevated temperature for organisms may be amplified by changes in behaviour (compromising food acquisition) and non-consumptive predator effects.}, }
@article {pmid32623163, year = {2020}, author = {Govere, S and Nyamangara, J and Nyakatawa, EZ}, title = {Climate change signals in the historical water footprint of wheat production in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {742}, number = {}, pages = {140473}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140473}, pmid = {32623163}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change has been posited as the biggest threat to crop productivity in agro-systems, yet its impact on the water footprints of crop production for many regions remains uncertain. This study sought to determine evidence of historical climate change (1980-2010) and its resultant impact on the blue water footprint of winter wheat production in Zimbabwe. The analysis involved assessing the impact of climate change on wheat yield and crop water requirements, the key factors determining the blue water footprint. The CROPWAT model and the global water footprint assessment (WFA) standard were used to calculate the blue water footprint. Multiple linear regression was used to correlate climate variables to wheat yield, crop water requirements and the blue water footprint. Results show a significant (p < 0.05) warming of temperatures in the country's main wheat growing areas. Crop water requirements for winter wheat decreased by 4.88%, due to positive and negative trends in humidity and wind speed respectively. Between 1980 and 2000 the coupled effects of solar radiation at anthesis and maximum temperatures in July, August and September reduced wheat yields by 6.65%. The cumulative effects of climate change on crop water requirements and wheat yields increased the blue water footprint by 4%. The results of the study suggest that climate change and agricultural management factors might be equally responsible for the increase in the blue water footprint.}, }
@article {pmid32620772, year = {2020}, author = {Hassanzadeh, P and Lee, CY and Nabizadeh, E and Camargo, SJ and Ma, D and Yeung, LY}, title = {Effects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclones.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3319}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-17130-7}, pmid = {32620772}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {AGS-1921413//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 80NSSC17K0266/NASA/NASA/United States ; NA16OAR4310079//United States Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/ ; NA18OAR4310277//United States Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/ ; }, abstract = {The movement of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly around the time of landfall, can substantially affect the resulting damage. Recently, trends in TC translation speed and the likelihood of stalled TCs such as Harvey have received significant attention, but findings have remained inconclusive. Here, we examine how the June-September steering wind and translation speed of landfalling Texas TCs change in the future under anthropogenic climate change. Using several large-ensemble/multi-model datasets, we find pronounced regional variations in the meridional steering wind response over North America, but-consistently across models-stronger June-September-averaged northward steering winds over Texas. A cluster analysis of daily wind patterns shows more frequent circulation regimes that steer landfalling TCs northward in the future. Downscaling experiments show a 10-percentage-point shift from the slow-moving to the fast-moving end of the translation-speed distribution in the future. Together, these analyses indicate increases in the likelihood of faster-moving landfalling Texas TCs in the late 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid32620579, year = {2020}, author = {Buse, CG and Patrick, R}, title = {Climate change glossary for public health practice: from vulnerability to climate justice.}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and community health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/jech-2020-213889}, pmid = {32620579}, issn = {1470-2738}, abstract = {Climate change is an emerging and growing field of practice for the international public health community. As practitioners, researchers and policy-makers grapple with the local health impacts of climate change, there is an increasing need to clarify key terminology to support public health actors engage and respond in ways that promote intersectoral collaboration. This contribution introduces the public health discourse on climate change, with a particular focus on its implications for health equity. After defining key terms and existing adaptation practices, climate justice and assets-oriented inquiry into the intersectional determinants of health are discussed as future opportunities for addressing health equity in climate and health-related research and practice.}, }
@article {pmid32619913, year = {2020}, author = {Gu, S and Zhang, L and Sun, S and Wang, X and Lu, B and Han, H and Yang, J and Wang, A}, title = {Projections of temperature-related cause-specific mortality under climate change scenarios in a coastal city of China.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {143}, number = {}, pages = {105889}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2020.105889}, pmid = {32619913}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have been conducted to project temperature-related mortality under climate change scenarios. However, most of the previous evidence has been limited to the total or non-accidental mortality, resulting in insufficient knowledge on the influence of climate change on different types of disease.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We aimed to project future temperature impact on mortality from 16 causes under multiple climate change models in a coastal city of China.<br><br>METHODS: We first estimated the baseline exposure-response relationships between daily average temperature and cause-specific mortality during 2009-2018. Then, we acquired downscaled future temperature projections from 28 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Finally, we combined these exposure-response associations with projected temperature to estimate the change in the temperature-related death burden in different future decades in comparison to the 2010 s, assuming no demographic changes and population acclimatization.<br><br>RESULTS: We found a consistently decreasing trend in cold-related mortality but a steep rise in heat-related mortality among 16 causes under climate change scenarios. Compared with the 2010 s, the net change in the fraction of total mortality attributable to temperature are projected to -0.54% (95% eCI: -1.69% to 0.71%) and -0.38% (95% eCI: -2.73% to 2.12%) at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. However, the magnitude of future cold and heat effects varied by different causes of death. A net reduction of future temperature-related death burden was observed among 10 out of 15 causes, with estimates ranging from -5.02% (95% eCI: -17.42% to 2.50%) in mental disorders to -1.01% (95% eCI: -5.56% to 3.28%) in chronic lower respiratory disease. Conversely, the rest diseases are projected to experience a potential net increase of temperature-related death burden, with estimates ranging from 0.44% (95% eCI: -4.40% to 6.02%) in ischemic heart disease and 4.80% (95% eCI: -0.04% to 9.84%) in external causes.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that the mortality burden of climate change varied greatly by the mortality categories. Further investigations are warranted to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on different types of disease across various regions.}, }
@article {pmid32619845, year = {2020}, author = {Manzanedo, RD and Manning, P}, title = {COVID-19: Lessons for the climate change emergency.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {742}, number = {}, pages = {140563}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140563}, pmid = {32619845}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak pandemic is now a global crisis. It has caused 9+ million confirmed cases and 400,000+ deaths at the time of writing and triggered unprecedented preventative measures that have confined a substantial portion of the global population and established 'social distancing' as a new global behavioral norm. The COVID-19 crisis has affected all aspects of everyday life and work, and heavily impacted the global economy. This crisis also offers unprecedented insights into how the global climate crisis may be managed, as there are many parallels between the COVID-19 crisis and what we expect from the imminent global climate emergency. Reflecting upon the challenges of today's crisis may help us better prepare for the future. Here we compile a list, by no means comprehensive, of the similarities and differences between the two crises, and the lessons we can learn from them: (i) High momentum trends, (ii) Irreversible changes, (iii) Social and spatial inequality, (iv) Weakening of international solidarity, and (v) Less costly to prevent than to cure.}, }
@article {pmid32618027, year = {2020}, author = {Gildner, TE and Levy, SB}, title = {Intersecting vulnerabilities in human biology: Synergistic interactions between climate change and increasing obesity rates.}, journal = {American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e23460}, doi = {10.1002/ajhb.23460}, pmid = {32618027}, issn = {1520-6300}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Increasing obesity rates and accelerating climate change represent two global health challenges shaped by lifestyle change and human environmental modifications. Yet, few studies have considered how these issues may interact to exacerbate disease risk.<br><br>METHODS: In this theory article, we explore evidence that obesity-related disease and climatic changes share socio-ecological drivers and may interact to increase human morbidity and mortality risks. Additionally, we consider how obesity-climate change interactions may disproportionately affect vulnerable populations and how anthropological research can be applied to address this concern.<br><br>RESULTS: Interactions between heat stress and cardiometabolic disease represent an important pathway through which climate change and obesity-related morbidities may jointly impair health. For example, individuals with higher body fatness and obesity-related metabolic conditions (eg, type 2 diabetes) exhibit a reduced ability to dissipate heat. The risk of poor health resulting from these interactions is expected to be heterogeneous, with low- and middle-income countries, individuals of lower socioeconomic status, and minority populations facing a greater disease burden due to relative lack of resource access (eg, air conditioning). Moreover, older adults are at higher risk due to aging-associated changes in body composition and loss of thermoregulation capabilities.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Few policy makers appear to be considering how interventions can be designed to simultaneously address the medical burden posed by increasing obesity rates and climate change. Anthropological research is well situated to address this need in a nuanced and culturally-sensitive way; producing research that can be used to support community resilience, promote holistic well-being, and improve health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid32616362, year = {2020}, author = {Paliwal, R and Abberton, M and Faloye, B and Olaniyi, O}, title = {Developing the role of legumes in West Africa under climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in plant biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2020.05.002}, pmid = {32616362}, issn = {1879-0356}, abstract = {West Africa is faced with significant challenges from climate change, including parts of the region becoming hotter with more variable rainfall. The Sahelian region in particular is already subject to severe droughts. To address this better adapted crop varieties (such as for cowpea) are clearly a central element, a complementary one is a greater use of resilient alternative crops especially underutilized legumes particularly Bambara groundnut, African yam bean, winged bean and Kersting's groundnut. Genetic diversity of these crops conserved in genebanks and farmer's field provides an opportunity to exploit climate resilient traits using cutting-edge genomic tools and to use genomics-assisted breeding to accelerate genetic gains in combination of rapid cycle breeding strategy to develop climate-resilient cultivars for sub-Saharan Africa.}, }
@article {pmid32615065, year = {2020}, author = {Meza-Palacios, R and Aguilar-Lasserre, AA and Morales-Mendoza, LF and Rico-Contreras, JO and Sánchez-Medel, LH and Fernández-Lambert, G}, title = {Decision support system for NPK fertilization: a solution method for minimizing the impact on human health, climate change, ecosystem quality and resources.}, journal = {Journal of environmental science and health. Part A, Toxic/hazardous substances &amp; environmental engineering}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-16}, doi = {10.1080/10934529.2020.1787012}, pmid = {32615065}, issn = {1532-4117}, abstract = {Sugarcane cultivation requires correct fertilizer rates. However, when nutrients are not available, or there is over-fertilization, the yields are significantly reduced and the environmental burden increase. In this study, it is proposed a decision support system (DSS) for the correct NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium) fertilization. The DSS consists of two fuzzy models; the edaphic condition model (EDC-M) and the NPK fertilization model (NPK-M). The DSS using parameters from soil analysis and is based on the experience of two groups of experts to avoid the bias to the reality of a single group of professionals. The results of the DSS are compared with the results of soil analysis and those of the group of experts. One hundred and sixty tests were developed in the NPK-M. The N rate shows R2=0.981 for the DSS and R2=0.963 for soil analyzes. The P rate shows R2=0.9702 for the DSS and R2=0.9183 for the soil analyzes. The K rate shows R2=0.9691 for the DSS and R2=0.9663 for the soil analyzes. Environmental results indicate that the estimated rates with the DSS do reduce the environmental impact on the tests performed.}, }
@article {pmid32612881, year = {2020}, author = {Marcinkowski, P and Mirosław-Świątek, D}, title = {Modelling of climate change impact on flow conditions in the lowland anastomosing river.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {e9275}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.9275}, pmid = {32612881}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {The progressive degradation of freshwater ecosystems worldwide requires action to be taken for their conservation. Nowadays, protection strategies need to step beyond the traditional approach of managing protected areas as they have to deal with the protection or recovery of natural flow regimes disrupted by the effects of future climate conditions. Climate change affects the hydrosphere at catchment scale altering hydrological processes which in turn impact hydrodynamics at the river reach scale. Therefore, conservation strategies should consider mathematical models, which allow for an improved understanding of ecosystem functions and their interactions across different spatial and temporal scales. This study focuses on an anastomosing river system in north-eastern Poland, where in recent decades a significant loss of the anabranches has been observed. The objective was to assess the impact of projected climate change on average flow conditions in the anastomosing section of the Narew River. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT software) for the Narew catchment was coupled with the HEC-RAS one-dimensional unsteady flow model. The study looked into projected changes for two future time horizons 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 using an ensemble of nine EURO-CORDEX model scenarios. Results show that low flow conditions in the anastomosing section of the Narew National Park will remain relatively stable in 2021-2050 compared to current conditions and will slightly increase in 2071-2100. Duration of low flows, although projected to decrease on an annual basis, will increase for August-October, when the loss on anastomoses was found to be the most intense. Hydraulic modeling indicated extremely low flow velocities in the anastomosing arm (<0.1 m/s) nowadays and under future projections which is preferable for in-stream vegetation development and their gradual sedimentation and closure.}, }
@article {pmid32612364, year = {2020}, author = {Tuyet Hanh, TT and Huong, LTT and Huong, NTL and Linh, TNQ and Quyen, NH and Nhung, NTT and Ebi, K and Cuong, ND and Van Nhu, H and Kien, TM and Hales, S and Cuong, DM and Tho, NTT and Toan, LQ and Bich, NN and Van Minh, H}, title = {Vietnam Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment, 2018.}, journal = {Environmental health insights}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1178630220924658}, doi = {10.1177/1178630220924658}, pmid = {32612364}, issn = {1178-6302}, abstract = {Background: The Global Climate Risk Index 2020 ranked Vietnam as the sixth country in the world most affected by climate variability and extreme weather events over the period 1999-2018. Sea level rise and extreme weather events are projected to be more severe in coming decades, which, without additional action, will increase the number of people at risk of climate-sensitive diseases, challenging the health system. This article summaries the results of a health vulnerability and adaptation (V&amp;A) assessment conducted in Vietnam as evidences for development of the National Climate Change Health Adaptation Plan to 2030.<br><br>Methods: The assessment followed the first 4 steps outlined in the World Health Organization's Guidelines in conducting &quot;Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments.&quot; A framework and list of indicators were developed for semi-quantitative assessment for the period 2013 to 2017. Three sets of indicators were selected to assess the level of (1) exposure to climate change and extreme weather events, (2) health sensitivity, and (3) adaptation capacity. The indicators were rated and analyzed using a scoring system from 1 to 5.<br><br>Results: The results showed that climate-sensitive diseases were common, including dengue fever, diarrheal, influenza, etc, with large burdens of disease that are projected to increase. From 2013 to 2017, the level of &quot;exposure&quot; to climate change-related hazards of the health sector was &quot;high&quot; to &quot;very high,&quot; with an average score from 3.5 to 4.4 (out of 5.0). For &quot;health sensitivity,&quot; the scores decreased from 3.8 in 2013 to 3.5 in 2017, making the overall rating as &quot;high.&quot; For &quot;adaptive capacity,&quot; the scores were from 4.0 to 4.1, which meant adaptive capacity was &quot;very low.&quot; The overall V&amp;A rating in 2013 was &quot;very high risk&quot; (score 4.1) and &quot;high risk&quot; with scores of 3.8 in 2014 and 3.7 in 2015 to 2017.<br><br>Conclusions: Adaptation actions of the health sector are urgently needed to reduce the vulnerability to climate change in coming decades. Eight adaptation solutions, among recommendations of V&amp;A assessment, were adopted in the National Health Climate Change Adaptation Plan.}, }
@article {pmid32612126, year = {2020}, author = {Terzi, L and Wotawa, G and Schoeppner, M and Kalinowski, M and Saey, PRJ and Steinmann, P and Luan, L and Staten, PW}, title = {Radioisotopes demonstrate changes in global atmospheric circulation possibly caused by global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {10695}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-66541-5}, pmid = {32612126}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {In this paper, we present a new method to study global atmospheric processes and their changes during the last decade. A cosmogenic radionuclide measured at ground-level, beryllium-7, is utilized as a proxy to study atmospheric dynamics. Beryllium-7 has two advantages: First, this radionuclide, primarily created in the lower stratosphere, attaches to aerosols that are transported downwards to the troposphere and travel around the globe with the general atmospheric circulation. By monitoring these particles, we can provide a global, simple, and sustainable way to track processes such as multi-annual variation of the troposphere, tropopause heightening, position and speed of atmospheric interface zones, as well as the poleward movement and stalling patterns of jet streams. Second, beryllium-7 is a product of cosmic rays which are themselves directly linked to solar activity and the earth magnetic field. This study shows whether beryllium-7 observed concentration changes are correlated with such natural processes or independent of them. Our work confirms that major changes in the atmospheric circulation are currently ongoing, even though timeseries are too short to make climatological assessments. We provide solid evidence of significant and progressive changes of the global atmospheric circulation as well as modifications of tropopause heights over the past decade. As the last decade happened to be the warmest on record, this analysis also indicates that the observed changes are, at least to some extent, attributable to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid32611544, year = {2020}, author = {Nybo, L and Flouris, AD and Racinais, S and Mohr, M}, title = {Football facing a future with global warming: perspectives for players health and performance.}, journal = {British journal of sports medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bjsports-2020-102193}, pmid = {32611544}, issn = {1473-0480}, }
@article {pmid32610798, year = {2020}, author = {Keshvardoost, S and Dehnavieh, R and Bahaadinibeigy, K}, title = {Climate Change and Telemedicine: A Prospective View.}, journal = {International journal of health policy and management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.15171/ijhpm.2020.08}, pmid = {32610798}, issn = {2322-5939}, }
@article {pmid32609857, year = {2020}, author = {Kameg, BN}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health: Implications for Nurses.}, journal = {Journal of psychosocial nursing and mental health services}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-6}, doi = {10.3928/02793695-20200624-05}, pmid = {32609857}, issn = {0279-3695}, abstract = {Climate change has received public health attention over the past 3 decades. It is well established that climate change is associated with myriad health issues, but less has been mentioned in public health discourse about the impacts of climate change on population mental health. The purpose of the current article is to provide an overview of the impacts of climate change on mental health, and to discuss opportunities for mental health nurses to reduce health problems related to climate change. Acute events and chronic consequences of climate change can impact mental health outcomes and contribute to depressive disorders, anxiety, and trauma-related disorders. The nursing profession must be prepared to address climate change to promote best health outcomes for individuals around the globe. It is critical that mental health nurses act as leaders in understanding and addressing climate change to improve the mental health of populations. [Journal of Psychosocial Nursing and Mental Health Services, xx(x), xx-xx.].}, }
@article {pmid32603347, year = {2020}, author = {da Silva-Pinto, T and Silveira, MM and de Souza, JF and Moreira, ALP and Vieira, EA and Longo, GO and Luchiari, AC}, title = {Damselfish face climate change: Impact of temperature and habitat structure on agonistic behavior.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {e0235389}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0235389}, pmid = {32603347}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Oceans absorb a huge part of the atmospheric heat, leading to the rise in water temperature. Reefs are among the most affected ecosystems, where the complex behavioral repertoire of fishes is usually an indicator of environmental impacts. Here, we examined whether temperature (28 and 34°C) and habitat complexity (high and low) interact to affect the agonistic behavior (mirror test) of the dusky damselfish (Stegastes fuscus), a key species in Brazilian reefs because of its gardening capacity and territorial behavior. Higher temperatures altered basal behavior in both high and low-complexity conditions. Fish kept at 28°C under the high-complexity condition were more aggressive than those at a higher temperature (34°C) and in a low-complexity condition, which also exhibited lower dispersion. Our data show that changes in behavior of coral reef fish is associated to fluctuations in environmental conditions. Thus, it is important to implement management or conservation strategies that could mitigate global change effects.}, }
@article {pmid32599547, year = {2020}, author = {Kingsolver, JG and Buckley, LB}, title = {Ontogenetic variation in thermal sensitivity shapes insect ecological responses to climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {41}, number = {}, pages = {17-24}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2020.05.005}, pmid = {32599547}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Insects have distinct life stages that can differ in their responses to environmental factors. We discuss empirical evidence and theoretical models for ontogenetic variation in thermal sensitivity and performance curves (TPCs). Data on lower thermal limits for development (T0) demonstrate variation between stages within a species that is of comparable magnitude to variation among species; we illustrate the consequences of such ontogenetic variation for developmental responses to changing temperature. Ontogenetic variation in optimal temperatures and upper thermal limits has been reported in some systems, but current data are too limited to identify general patterns. The shapes of TPCs for different fitness components such as juvenile survival, adult fecundity, and generation time differ in characteristic ways, with important consequences for understanding fitness in varying thermal environments. We highlight a theoretical framework for incorporating ontogenetic variation into process-based models of population responses to seasonal variation and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32599389, year = {2020}, author = {Heath, LC and Tiwari, P and Sadhukhan, B and Tiwari, S and Chapagain, P and Xu, T and Li, G and Ailikun,  and Joshi, B and Yan, J}, title = {Building climate change resilience by using a versatile toolkit for local governments and communities in rural Himalaya.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {188}, number = {}, pages = {109636}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109636}, pmid = {32599389}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {With the impacts of climate disruption becoming more evident there has been an increase in the uptake of climate change adaptation &quot;toolkits&quot; to assist local governments build community resilience and adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is increasing attention and call for practitioners to adopt proactive and participatory approaches to help in the adaptive response planning process. One such toolkit is the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCRN) Process (IAP). This is a simple but rigorous toolkit developed to help local governments in Asian cities build resilience to the impacts of climate change. This paper outlines the application of the toolkit to determine its versatility in the rural context and was trialled in the Himalayan rural enclave of Ramgad in the Indian state of Uttarakhand. Given the differences between urban and rural environments, the outcomes highlighted the need for further investigation and analysis into the process to ensure that the methodology truly reflects the nature of rural systems and their level of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Overall, the toolkit proved to be a simple but versatile toolkit to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of communities in rural Himalaya. Over 40 resilience intervention strategies were developed for the Ramgad enclave and these were prioritized according to their technical, political, social and economic feasibility.}, }
@article {pmid32598391, year = {2020}, author = {Chemura, A and Schauberger, B and Gornott, C}, title = {Impacts of climate change on agro-climatic suitability of major food crops in Ghana.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {e0229881}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0229881}, pmid = {32598391}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change is projected to impact food production stability in many tropical countries through impacts on crop potential. However, without quantitative assessments of where, by how much and to what extent crop production is possible now and under future climatic conditions, efforts to design and implement adaptation strategies under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Action Plans (NAP) are unsystematic. In this study, we used extreme gradient boosting, a machine learning approach to model the current climatic suitability for maize, sorghum, cassava and groundnut in Ghana using yield data and agronomically important variables. We then used multi-model future climate projections for the 2050s and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) to predict changes in the suitability range of these crops. We achieved a good model fit in determining suitability classes for all crops (AUC = 0.81-0.87). Precipitation-based factors are suggested as most important in determining crop suitability, though the importance is crop-specific. Under projected climatic conditions, optimal suitability areas will decrease for all crops except for groundnuts under RCP8.5 (no change: 0%), with greatest losses for maize (12% under RCP2.6 and 14% under RCP8.5). Under current climatic conditions, 18% of Ghana has optimal suitability for two crops, 2% for three crops with no area having optimal suitability for all the four crops. Under projected climatic conditions, areas with optimal suitability for two and three crops will decrease by 12% as areas having moderate and marginal conditions for multiple crops increase. We also found that although the distribution of multiple crop suitability is spatially distinct, cassava and groundnut will be more simultaneously suitable for the south while groundnut and sorghum will be more suitable for the northern parts of Ghana under projected climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32597979, year = {2020}, author = {Pollastrini, M and Salvatori, E and Fusaro, L and Manes, F and Marzuoli, R and Gerosa, G and Brüggemann, W and Strasser, RJ and Bussotti, F}, title = {Selection of tree species for forests under climate change: is PSI functioning a better predictor for net photosynthesis and growth than PSII?.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpaa084}, pmid = {32597979}, issn = {1758-4469}, abstract = {A Chlorophyll Fluorescence (ChlF) assessment was carried out on oak seedlings (Quercus ilex, Q. pubescens, Q. frainetto) of Italian and Greek provenance, during the years 2017 and 2018, in a common garden in central Italy planted in 2017. This trial aimed to test the relative performances of the oak species in the perspective of assisted migration as part of the actions for the adaptation of forests to climate change. The assessment of the photosynthetic performance of the tree species included the analysis of the Prompt Chlorophyll Fluorescence (PF) transient and the Modulated Reflectance (MR) at 820 nm, leaf chlorophyll content, leaf gas exchange (net photosynthesis, stomatal conductance), plant growth (i.e., height) and mortality rate after two years from the beginning of the experiment. The assessment of the performance of the three oak species was carried out &quot;in vivo&quot;. Plants were generated by seeds and exposed to several environmental factors, including seasonal temperature changing, water availability and soil biological and physical functionality. The results of PF indicate a stable functionality of the photosynthetic system PSII (expressed with FV/FM) across species and provenances and a decline in photochemistry functionality at the I-P phase (ΔVIP) in Q. frainetto, indicating thus a decline of the content of PSI in this species. This result was confirmed by the findings of MR analysis, being the speed of reduction and subsequent oxidation of PSI (VRED and VOX) strongly correlated to the amplitude of ΔVIP. The photosynthetic rates (net photosynthesis, PN) and growth were correlated with the parameters associated with PSI content and function, rather than those related to PSII. The low performance of Q. frainetto in the common garden seem to be related to early foliar senescence with the depletion of nitrogen, due to sub-optimal climatic and edaphic conditions. Chlorophyll fluorescence allowed to discriminate populations of oak species and to individuate the less (or/and best) suitable species for future forest ecology and management purposes.}, }
@article {pmid32596440, year = {2020}, author = {Elsen, PR and Monahan, WB and Dougherty, ER and Merenlender, AM}, title = {Keeping pace with climate change in global terrestrial protected areas.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {6}, number = {25}, pages = {eaay0814}, pmid = {32596440}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Protected areas (PAs) are essential to biodiversity conservation, but their static boundaries may undermine their potential for protecting species under climate change. We assessed how the climatic conditions within global terrestrial PAs may change over time. By 2070, protection is expected to decline in cold and warm climates and increase in cool and hot climates over a wide range of precipitation. Most countries are expected to fail to protect >90% of their available climate at current levels. The evenness of climatic representation under protection-not the amount of area protected-positively influenced the retention of climatic conditions under protection. On average, protection retention would increase by ~118% if countries doubled their climatic representativeness under protection or by ~102% if countries collectively reduced emissions in accordance with global targets. Therefore, alongside adoption of mitigation policies, adaptation policies that improve the complementarity of climatic conditions within PAs will help countries safeguard biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid32595660, year = {2020}, author = {Dorado-Liñán, I and Valbuena-Carabaña, M and Cañellas, I and Gil, L and Gea-Izquierdo, G}, title = {Climate Change Synchronizes Growth and iWUE Across Species in a Temperate-Submediterranean Mixed Oak Forest.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {706}, pmid = {32595660}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Tree species have good tolerance to a range of environmental conditions, though their ability to respond and persist to environmental changes is dramatically reduced at the rear-edge distribution limits. At those edges, gene flow conferring adaptation is impaired due to lack of populations at lower latitudes. Thus, trees mainly rely on phenotypic changes to buffer against long-term environmental changes. Interspecific hybridization may offer an alternative mechanism in the generation of novel genetic recombinants that could be particularly valuable to ensure persistence in geographically isolated forests. In this paper, we take advantage of the longevity of a temperate-submediterranean mixed-oak forest to explore the long-term impact of environmental changes on two different oak species and their hybrid. Individual trees were genetically characterized and classified into three groups: pure Quercus petraea (Matt.), Liebl, pure Q. pyrenaica Willd, and hybrids. We calculated basal area increment and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) from tree-ring width and δ13C per genetic group, respectively. Tree-growth drivers were assessed using correlation analyses and generalized linear mixed models for two contrasting climatic periods: (1880-1915, colder with [CO2] < 303 ppm; and 1980-2015, warmer with [CO2] > 338 ppm). The three genetic groups have increased radial growth and iWUE during the last decades, being the least drought-tolerant QuPe the most sensitive species to water stress. However, no significant differences were found among genetic groups neither in mean growth rate nor in mean iWUE. Furthermore, little differences were found in the response to climate among groups. Genetic groups only differed in the relationship between δ13C and temperature and precipitation during the earlier period, but such a difference disappeared during the recent decades. Climate change may have promoted species-level convergence as a response to environment-induced growth limitations, which translated in synchronized growth and response to climate as well as a tighter stomatal control and increased iWUE across coexisting oak species.}, }
@article {pmid32594262, year = {2020}, author = {Yildiz, K and Karakaya, N and Kilic, S and Evrendilek, F}, title = {Interaction effects of the main drivers of global climate change on spatiotemporal dynamics of high altitude ecosystem behaviors: process-based modeling.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {7}, pages = {457}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08430-y}, pmid = {32594262}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {117Y193//Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştirma Kurumu/ ; }, abstract = {Soil organic carbon and nitrogen (SOC-N) dynamics are indicative of the human-induced disturbances of the terrestrial ecosystems the quantification of which provides insights into interactions among drivers, pressures, states, impacts, and responses in a changing environment. In this study, a process-based model was developed to simulate the eight monthly outputs of net primary productivity (NPP), SOC-N pools, soil C:N ratio, soil respiration, total N emission, and sediment C-N transport effluxes for cropland, grassland, and forest on a hectare basis. The interaction effect of the climate change drivers of aridity, CO2 fertilization, land-use and land-cover change, and best management practices was simulated on high altitude ecosystems from 2018 to 2070. The best management practices were developed into a spatiotemporally composite index based on SOC-N stock saturation, 4/1000 initiative, and RUCLE-C factor. Our model predictions differed from the remotely sensed data in the range of - 64% (underestimation) for the cropland NPP to 142% (overestimation) for the grassland SOC pool as well as from the global mean values in the range of - 97% for the sediment C and N effluxes to 60% for the total N emission from the grassland. The interaction exerted the greatest negative impact on the monthly sediment N efflux, total N emission, and soil respiration from forest by - 90.5, - 82.7, and - 80.3% and the greatest positive impact on the monthly sediment C effluxes from cropland, grassland, and forest by 139.3, 137.1, and 133.3%, respectively, relative to the currently prevailing conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32493944, year = {2020}, author = {Contador, T and Gañan, M and Bizama, G and Fuentes-Jaque, G and Morales, L and Rendoll, J and Simoes, F and Kennedy, J and Rozzi, R and Convey, P}, title = {Assessing distribution shifts and ecophysiological characteristics of the only Antarctic winged midge under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {9087}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-65571-3}, pmid = {32493944}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Parts of Antarctica were amongst the most rapidly changing regions of the planet during the second half of the Twentieth Century. Even so, today, most of Antarctica remains in the grip of continental ice sheets, with only about 0.2% of its overall area being ice-free. The continent's terrestrial fauna consists only of invertebrates, with just two native species of insects, the chironomid midges Parochlus steinenii and Belgica antarctica. We integrate ecophysiological information with the development of new high-resolution climatic layers for Antarctica, to better understand how the distribution of P. steinenii may respond to change over the next century under different IPCC climate change scenarios. We conclude that the species has the potential to expand its distribution to include parts of the west and east coasts of the Antarctic Peninsula and even coastal ice-free areas in parts of continental Antarctica. We propose P. steinenii as an effective native sentinel and indicator species of climate change in the Antarctic.}, }
@article {pmid32591640, year = {2020}, author = {Laurent, L and Buoncristiani, JF and Pohl, B and Zekollari, H and Farinotti, D and Huss, M and Mugnier, JL and Pergaud, J}, title = {The impact of climate change and glacier mass loss on the hydrology in the Mont-Blanc massif.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {10420}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-67379-7}, pmid = {32591640}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {Grant 799904//European Commission Marie Sktodowska-Curie Action/ ; }, abstract = {The Mont-Blanc massif, being iconic with its large glaciers and peaks of over 4,000 m, will experience a sharp increase in summer temperatures during the twenty-first century. By 2100, the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and hydrosphere in the Alps is expected to lead to a decrease in annual river discharge. In this work, we modelled the twenty-first century evolution of runoff in the Arve river, downstream of Mont-Blanc's French side. For the first time for this region, we have forced a hydrological model with output from an ice-dynamical glacier model and 16 downscaled climate projections, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. By 2100, under RCP8.5 (high-emission scenario), the winter discharge of the Arve river remains low but is expected to increase by 80% when compared to the beginning of the century. By contrast, the summer season, currently the most important discharge period, will be marked by a runoff decrease of approximately 40%. These changes are almost similar according to a scenario with a lower warming (RCP4.5) and are mostly driven by glacier retreat. These shifts will have significant downstream impacts on water quantity and quality, affecting hydroelectric generation, agriculture, forestry, tourism and aquatic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid32590458, year = {2020}, author = {Deng, SZ and Jalaludin, BB and Antó, JM and Hess, JJ and Huang, CR}, title = {Climate change, air pollution, and allergic respiratory diseases: a call to action for health professionals.}, journal = {Chinese medical journal}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/CM9.0000000000000861}, pmid = {32590458}, issn = {2542-5641}, abstract = {Rising emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have warmed the planet substantially and are also accompanied by poor air quality. The increased prevalence of allergic airway disease worldwide can be partially attributed to those global environmental changes. Climate change and air pollution pose adverse impacts on respiratory allergies, and that the mechanisms are complex and interactive. Adverse weather conditions, such as extreme temperatures, can act directly on the respiratory tract to induce allergic respiratory illnesses. Thunderstorms and floods can alter the production and distribution of aeroallergens while wildfires and dust storms increase air pollution, and therefore indirectly enhance health risks. Concentrations of particulate matter and ozone in the air have been projected to increase with climate warming and air stagnation, and the rising temperatures and CO2 increase pollen, molds, and spores, which escalate the risk of allergic respiratory diseases. The synergistic effects of extreme heat and aeroallergens intensify the toxic effect of air pollutants, which in turn augment the allergenicity of aeroallergens. With the Earth's climate change, migration of humans and plants shift the living environments and allergens of susceptible people. Urban residents are exposed to multiple factors while children are sensitive to environmental exposure. Since climate change may pose many unexpected and persistent effects on allergic respiratory diseases, health professionals should advocate for effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize its respiratory health effects.}, }
@article {pmid32589303, year = {2020}, author = {D'Amato, G and Chong-Neto, HJ and Monge Ortega, OP and Vitale, C and Ansotegui, I and Rosario, N and Haathela, T and Galan, C and Pawankar, R and Murrieta, M and Cecchi, L and Bergmann, C and Ridolo, E and Ramon, G and Gonzalez Diaz, S and D'Amato, M and Annesi-Maesano, I}, title = {The effects of climate change on respiratory allergy and asthma induced by pollen and mold allergens.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/all.14476}, pmid = {32589303}, issn = {1398-9995}, abstract = {The impact of climate change on the environment, biosphere and biodiversity has become more evident in the recent years. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases. Change in climate and the correlated global warming affects the quantity, intensity and frequency of precipitation type as well as the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, thunderstorms, floods and hurricanes. Respiratory health can be particularly affected by climate change, which contributes to the development of allergic respiratory diseasesand asthma. Pollen and mold allergens are able to trigger the release of pro-inflammatory and immunomodulatory mediators that accelerate the onset the IgE-mediated sensitizationand of allergy. Allergy to pollen and pollen season at its beginning, in duration and intensity are altered by climatechange. Studies showed that plants exhibit enhanced photosynthesis and reproductive effects and produce more pollen as a response to high atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO2).Molds which proliferation is increased by floods and rainy storms are responsible for severe asthma. Pollen and mold allergy is generally used to evaluate the interrelation between air pollution and allergic respiratory diseases, such as rhinitis and asthma. Thunderstorms during pollen seasons can cause exacerbation of respiratory allergy and asthma in patients with hay fever. A similar phenomenon is observed for molds.Measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can have positive health benefits.}, }
@article {pmid32588727, year = {2020}, author = {Keten, A}, title = {Forensic medicine and migration relating to anti-democratic governments and climate change.}, journal = {Medicine, science, and the law}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {25802420934660}, doi = {10.1177/0025802420934660}, pmid = {32588727}, issn = {2042-1818}, }
@article {pmid32586220, year = {2020}, author = {Heath, ACG}, title = {Climate change, and its potential for altering the phenology and ecology of some common and widespread arthropod parasites in New Zealand.}, journal = {New Zealand veterinary journal}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-37}, doi = {10.1080/00480169.2020.1787276}, pmid = {32586220}, issn = {1176-0710}, abstract = {Climate change, in the form of global warming, is a current concern, and because they are influenced by weather, it is possible to predict (albeit with some uncertainty) that farming systems, livestock parasites and their hosts will change in some broadly descriptive fashion as climate changes. This review examines the on- and off-host responses to potential changes in temperature and humidity of a representative selection of arthropod ectoparasites (sheep biting louse, sheep blowflies, cattle tick, chorioptic mange mite and cat and dog fleas) that occur in New Zealand and in many other countries , and how these environmental factors can be perturbed by host manipulation. The bioclimatic preferences of the parasites are examined in relation to future broad climate parameters and how parasite life cycles, seasonality and population dynamics may be influenced. Likely adaptations of farming systems to meet climate change imperatives are briefly discussed. Collectively it is estimated that regions of New Zealand faced with warmer, wetter conditions under climate change may see an increase in flystrike and cattle tick prevalence, and perhaps an increase in the biting louse, but fewer chorioptic mange and flea infestations. In contrast, drier, warmer regions will possibly experience fewer of all ectoparasites with the exception of flea infestations. Economic effects of increases in ectoparasite prevalence, using approximate dipping costs as a model are examined, and risks posed to New Zealand by some exotic arthropod parasites with the potential to invade under climate change, are briefly outlined.}, }
@article {pmid32584659, year = {2020}, author = {Giesen, C and Roche, J and Redondo-Bravo, L and Ruiz-Huerta, C and Gomez-Barroso, D and Benito, A and Herrador, Z}, title = {The impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases in Africa.}, journal = {Pathogens and global health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-15}, doi = {10.1080/20477724.2020.1783865}, pmid = {32584659}, issn = {2047-7732}, abstract = {Despite being one of the continents with the least greenhouse gas emissions, no continent is being struck as severely by climate change (CC) as Africa. Mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) cause major human diseases in this continent. Current knowledge suggests that MBD range could expand dramatically in response to CC. This study aimed at assessing the relationship between CC and MBD in Africa. Methods For this purpose, a systematic peer review was carried out, considering all articles indexed in PubMed, Scopus, Embase and CENTRAL. Search terms referring to MBD, CC and environmental factors were screened in title, abstract and keywords.Results A total of twenty-nine studies were included, most of them on malaria (61%), being Anopheles spp. (61%) the most commonly analyzed vector, mainly in Eastern Africa (48%). Seventy-nine percent of these studies were based on predictive models. Seventy-two percent of the reviewed studies considered that CC impacts on MBD epidemiology. MBD prevalence will increase according to 69% of the studies while 17% predicted a decrease. MBD expansion throughout the continent was also predicted. Most studies showed a positive relationship between observed or predicted results and CC. However, there was a great heterogeneity in methodologies and a tendency to reductionism, not integrating other variables that interact with both the environment and MBD. In addition, most results have not yet been tested. A global health approach is desirable in this kind of research. Nevertheless, we cannot wait for science to approve something that needs to be addressed now to avoid greater effects in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32582849, year = {2020}, author = {Jun, SY and Kim, JH and Choi, J and Kim, SJ and Kim, BM and An, SI}, title = {The internal origin of the west-east asymmetry of Antarctic climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {6}, number = {24}, pages = {eaaz1490}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aaz1490}, pmid = {32582849}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Recent Antarctic surface climate change has been characterized by greater warming trends in West Antarctica than in East Antarctica. Although this asymmetric feature is well recognized, its origin remains poorly understood. Here, by analyzing observation data and multimodel results, we show that a west-east asymmetric internal mode amplified in austral winter originates from the harmony of the atmosphere-ocean coupled feedback off West Antarctica and the Antarctic terrain. The warmer ocean temperature over the West Antarctic sector has positive feedback, with an anomalous upper-tropospheric anticyclonic circulation response centered over West Antarctica, in which the strength of the feedback is controlled by the Antarctic topographic layout and the annual cycle. The current west-east asymmetry of Antarctic surface climate change is undoubtedly of natural origin because no external factors (e.g., orbital or anthropogenic factors) contribute to the asymmetric mode.}, }
@article {pmid32582678, year = {2020}, author = {Rodriguez, R and Durán, P}, title = {Natural Holobiome Engineering by Using Native Extreme Microbiome to Counteract the Climate Change Effects.}, journal = {Frontiers in bioengineering and biotechnology}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {568}, doi = {10.3389/fbioe.2020.00568}, pmid = {32582678}, issn = {2296-4185}, abstract = {In the current scenario of climate change, the future of agriculture is uncertain. Climate change and climate-related disasters have a direct impact on biotic and abiotic factors that govern agroecosystems compromising the global food security. In the last decade, the advances in high throughput sequencing techniques have significantly improved our understanding about the composition, function and dynamics of plant microbiome. However, despite the microbiome have been proposed as a new platform for the next green revolution, our knowledge about the mechanisms that govern microbe-microbe and microbe-plant interactions are incipient. Currently, the adaptation of plants to environmental changes not only suggests that the plants can adapt or migrate, but also can interact with their surrounding microbial communities to alleviate different stresses by natural microbiome selection of specialized strains, phenomenon recently called &quot;Cry for Help&quot;. From this way, plants have been co-evolved with their microbiota adapting to local environmental conditions to ensuring the survival of the entire holobiome to improve plant fitness. Thus, the strong selective pressure of native extreme microbiomes could represent a remarkable microbial niche of plant stress-amelioration to counteract the negative effect of climate change in food crops. Currently, the microbiome engineering has recently emerged as an alternative to modify and promote positive interactions between microorganisms and plants to improve plant fitness. In the present review, we discuss the possible use of extreme microbiome to alleviate different stresses in crop plants under the current scenario of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32581227, year = {2020}, author = {Kodra, E and Bhatia, U and Chatterjee, S and Chen, S and Ganguly, AR}, title = {Physics-guided probabilistic modeling of extreme precipitation under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {10299}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-67088-1}, pmid = {32581227}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit decision making. Existing state-of-the art approaches for uncertainty quantification use Bayesian methods to weight ESMs based on a balance of historical skills and future consensus. Here we propose an empirical Bayesian model that extends an existing skill and consensus based weighting framework and examine the hypothesis that nontrivial, physics-guided measures of ESM skill can help produce reliable probabilistic characterization of climate extremes. Specifically, the model leverages knowledge of physical relationships between temperature, atmospheric moisture capacity, and extreme precipitation intensity to iteratively weight and combine ESMs and estimate probability distributions of return levels. Out-of-sample validation suggests that the proposed Bayesian method, which incorporates physics-guidance, has the potential to derive reliable precipitation projections, although caveats remain and the gain is not uniform across all cases.}, }
@article {pmid32576822, year = {2020}, author = {Konapala, G and Mishra, AK and Wada, Y and Mann, ME}, title = {Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3044}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w}, pmid = {32576822}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to analyze seasonal hydroclimatic regimes by classifying global land regions into nine regimes using late 20th century precipitation means and seasonality. These regimes are used to assess implications for water availability due to concomitant changes in mean and seasonal precipitation and evaporation changes using CMIP5 model future climate projections. Out of 9 regimes, 4 show increased precipitation variation, while 5 show decreased evaporation variation coupled with increasing mean precipitation and evaporation. Increases in projected seasonal precipitation variation in already highly variable precipitation regimes gives rise to a pattern of &quot;seasonally variable regimes becoming more variable&quot;. Regimes with low seasonality in precipitation, instead, experience increased wet season precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid32576175, year = {2020}, author = {Ryan, EC and Dubrow, R and Sherman, JD}, title = {Medical, nursing, and physician assistant student knowledge and attitudes toward climate change, pollution, and resource conservation in health care.}, journal = {BMC medical education}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {200}, doi = {10.1186/s12909-020-02099-0}, pmid = {32576175}, issn = {1472-6920}, support = {N/A//Yale Climate Change and Health Initiative/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and pollution generated by the health care sector impose significant public health burdens. This study aimed to assess medical, nursing and physician assistant student knowledge and attitudes regarding climate change, pollution from the health care sector, and responsibility for resource conservation within professional practice.<br><br>METHODS: In February-March, 2018, medical, nursing, and physician assistant students at Yale University (1011 potential respondents) were sent a 17-question online Qualtrics survey. Data analysis included descriptive statistics, as well as Fisher's exact test and logistic regression to assess associations between variables of interest and the personal characteristics of gender, age, geographic place of origin, school, and year in school (among medical students).<br><br>RESULTS: The response rate was 28% (280 respondents). 90% felt that physicians, nurses, and physician assistants have a responsibility to conserve resources and prevent pollution within their professional practice. 63% agreed or strongly agreed that the relationship between pollution, climate change, and health should be covered in the classroom and should be reinforced in the clinical setting. 57% preferred or strongly preferred reusable devices. 91% felt lack of time and production pressure, and 85% believed that lack of education on disease burden stemming from health care pollution, were barriers to taking responsibility for resource conservation and pollution prevention. Women and physician assistant students exhibited a greater commitment than men and medical students, respectively, to address pollution, climate change, and resource conservation in patient care and professional practice.<br><br>CONCLUSION: We found that health professional students are engaged with the concept of environmental stewardship in clinical practice and would like to see pollution, climate change, and health covered in their curriculum. In order for this education to be most impactful, more research and industry transparency regarding the environmental footprint of health care materials and specific clinician resource consumption patterns will be required.}, }
@article {pmid32576116, year = {2020}, author = {Tang, J and Swaisgood, RR and Owen, MA and Zhao, X and Wei, W and Pilfold, NW and Wei, F and Yang, X and Gu, X and Yang, Z and Dai, Q and Hong, M and Zhou, H and Zhang, J and Yuan, S and Han, H and Zhang, Z}, title = {Climate change and landscape-use patterns influence recent past distribution of giant pandas.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {287}, number = {1929}, pages = {20200358}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2020.0358}, pmid = {32576116}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most pervasive threats to biodiversity globally, yet the influence of climate relative to other drivers of species depletion and range contraction remain difficult to disentangle. Here, we examine climatic and non-climatic correlates of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) distribution using a large-scale 30 year dataset to evaluate whether a changing climate has already influenced panda distribution. We document several climatic patterns, including increasing temperatures, and alterations to seasonal temperature and precipitation. We found that while climatic factors were the most influential predictors of panda distribution, their importance diminished over time, while landscape variables have become relatively more influential. We conclude that the panda's distribution has been influenced by changing climate, but conservation intervention to manage habitat is working to increasingly offset these negative consequences.}, }
@article {pmid32574509, year = {2020}, author = {Shankar, HM and Ewart, G and Garcia, E and Hicks, A and Hardie, W}, title = {COVID-19, Climate Change, and the American Thoracic Society: A Shared Responsibility.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1513/AnnalsATS.202002-180VP}, pmid = {32574509}, issn = {2325-6621}, }
@article {pmid32572138, year = {2020}, author = {Shiru, MS and Shahid, S and Dewan, A and Chung, ES and Alias, N and Ahmed, K and Hassan, QK}, title = {Projection of meteorological droughts in Nigeria during growing seasons under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {10107}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-67146-8}, pmid = {32572138}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Like many other African countries, incidence of drought is increasing in Nigeria. In this work, spatiotemporal changes in droughts under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were assessed; considering their greatest impacts on life and livelihoods in Nigeria, especially when droughts coincide with the growing seasons. Three entropy-based methods, namely symmetrical uncertainty, gain ratio, and entropy gain were used in a multi-criteria decision-making framework to select the best performing General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the projection of rainfall and temperature. Performance of four widely used bias correction methods was compared to identify a suitable method for correcting bias in GCM projections for the period 2010-2099. A machine learning technique was then used to generate a multi-model ensemble (MME) of the bias-corrected GCM projection for different RCP scenarios. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was subsequently computed to estimate droughts from the MME mean of GCM projected rainfall and temperature to predict possible spatiotemporal changes in meteorological droughts. Finally, trends in the SPEI, temperature and rainfall, and return period of droughts for different growing seasons were estimated using a 50-year moving window, with a 10-year interval, to understand driving factors accountable for future changes in droughts. The analysis revealed that MRI-CGCM3, HadGEM2-ES, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, and CESM1-CAM5 are the most appropriate GCMs for projecting rainfall and temperature, and the linear scaling (SCL) is the best method for correcting bias. The MME mean of bias-corrected GCM projections revealed an increase in rainfall in the south-south, southwest, and parts of the northwest whilst a decrease in the southeast, northeast, and parts of central Nigeria. In contrast, rise in temperature for entire country during most of the cropping seasons was projected. The results further indicated that increase in temperature would decrease the SPEI across Nigeria, which will make droughts more frequent in most of the country under all the RCPs. However, increase in drought frequency would be less for higher RCPs due to increase in rainfall.}, }
@article {pmid32571954, year = {2020}, author = {Whitt, DB and Jansen, MF}, title = {Slower nutrient stream suppresses Subarctic Atlantic Ocean biological productivity in global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2000851117}, pmid = {32571954}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Earth system models (ESMs) project that global warming suppresses biological productivity in the Subarctic Atlantic Ocean as increasing ocean surface buoyancy suppresses two physical drivers of nutrient supply: vertical mixing and meridional circulation. However, the quantitative sensitivity of productivity to surface buoyancy is uncertain and the relative importance of the physical drivers is unknown. Here, we present a simple predictive theory of how mixing, circulation, and productivity respond to increasing surface buoyancy in 21st-century global warming scenarios. With parameters constrained by observations, the theory suggests that the reduced northward nutrient transport, owing to a slower ocean circulation, explains the majority of the reduced productivity in a warmer climate. The theory also informs present-day biases in a set of ESM simulations as well as the physical underpinnings of their 21st-century projections. Hence, this theoretical understanding can facilitate the development of improved 21st-century projections of marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid32571436, year = {2020}, author = {Prasopdee, S and Kulsantiwong, J and Sathavornmanee, T and Thitapakorn, V}, title = {The effects of temperature and salinity on the longevity of Opisthorchis viverrini cercariae: a climate change concern.}, journal = {Journal of helminthology}, volume = {94}, number = {}, pages = {e165}, doi = {10.1017/S0022149X20000498}, pmid = {32571436}, issn = {1475-2697}, abstract = {Research on the effects of environmental factors influenced by climate change on parasite transmissibility is an area garnering recent attention worldwide. However, there is still a lack of studies on the life cycle of Opisthorchis viverrini, a carcinogenic trematode found in countries of the Lower Mekong subregion of Lao PDR, Cambodia, Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand. To evaluate the influences of environmental factors water temperature and salinity on the transmissibility of the liver fluke O. viverrini through cercarial stage, longevity of O. viverrini cercaria was examined at different experimental temperatures (22°C, 30°C and 38°C) and salinities (2.5 parts per thousand (PPT), 3.75 PPT and 5 PPT). The results reveal that different temperatures have statistically significant effects on cercarial longevity. The cercariae exhibited a thermostability zone ranging between 22°C and 30°C. Cercarial longevity was significantly shortened when water temperatures reached 38°C. Salinity also plays a key role in cercarial longevity, with cercarial survival significantly shorter at a salinity of 3.75 PPT than at 2.5 PPT and 5 PPT. A combined analysis of salinity and temperature revealed unique trends in cercarial longevity. At all experimental salinities, cercarial longevity was lowest when incubated in 38°C, but statistically significant from cercarial longevity at temperatures of 22°C and 30°C, and salinities of 2.5 PPT and 5 PPT. The results suggest that higher temperatures negatively impact parasite longevity. This reflects that O. viverrini transmission patterns may be impacted by changes in water temperature and salinity resulting from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32570334, year = {2020}, author = {Détrée, C and Navarro, JM and Font, A and Gonzalez, M}, title = {Species vulnerability under climate change: Study of two sea urchins at their distribution margin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {728}, number = {}, pages = {138850}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138850}, pmid = {32570334}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In order to develop powerful predictions on the impact of climate change on marine organisms, it is critical to understand how abiotic drivers such as temperature can directly and indirectly affect marine organisms. Here, we evaluated and compared the physiological vulnerability of the leading-edge populations of two species of sea urchins Loxechinus albus and Pseudechinus magellanicus in response to predicted ocean warming and food limitation. After exposing sea urchins to a 60-day experimental period to contrasting temperature (1 °C, 7 °C and 14 °C corresponding respectively to the actual average summer temperature in Antarctica, the control treatment temperature and the predicted future temperature in the Strait of Magellan) and diet levels (ad libitum or food limitation), sea urchin stress tolerance was assessed. Sea urchins' physiology was measured at the organismal and sub-cellular level by studying the organisms energy balance (behavior, growth, gonad index, ingestion rate, O2 uptake, energy reserves) and the expression of genes associated with aerobic metabolism. Our results showed that at their distribution edge, and despite their distinct geographical repartition, both species might be resilient to ocean warming. However, the combination of ocean warming and food limitation reduced the stress tolerance of sea urchins. In a warming ocean, another strategy could be to migrate toward the pole to a cooler environment but incubation at 1 °C resulted in a diminution of both species' aerobic scope. Overall, if these engineer species are unable to acclimate to food limitation under future climate, population fitness could be affected with ecological and economic consequences.}, }
@article {pmid32570331, year = {2020}, author = {Smith, W and Grant, B and Qi, Z and He, W and Qian, B and Jing, Q and VanderZaag, A and Drury, CF and St Luce, M and Wagner-Riddle, C}, title = {Towards an improved methodology for modelling climate change impacts on cropping systems in cool climates.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {728}, number = {}, pages = {138845}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138845}, pmid = {32570331}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Assessment of the impact of climate change on agricultural sustainability requires a robust full system estimation of the interdependent soil-plant-atmospheric processes coupled with dynamic farm management. The simplification or exclusion of major feedback mechanisms in modelling approaches can significantly affect model outcomes. Using a biogeochemical model, DNDCv.CAN, at three case-study locations in Canada, we quantified the impact of using commonly employed simplified modelling approaches on model estimates of crop yields, soil organic carbon (SOC) change and nitrogen (N) losses across 4 time periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). These approaches included using climate with only temperature and precipitation data, annual re-initialization of soil status, fixed fertilizer application rates, and fixed planting dates. These simplified approaches were compared to a more comprehensive reference approach that used detailed climate drivers, dynamic planting dates, dynamic fertilizer rates, and had a continuous estimation of SOC, N and water budgets. Alternative cultivars and rotational impacts were also investigated. At the semi-arid location, the fixed fertilizer, fixed planting date, and soil re-initialization approaches reduced spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield estimates by 40%, 25%, and 29%, respectively, in the 2071-2100 period relative to the comprehensive reference approach. At both sub-humid locations, the re-initialization of soil status significantly altered SOC levels, N leaching and N runoff in all three time periods from 2011 to 2100. At all locations, SOC levels were impacted when using simplified approaches relative to the reference approach, except for the fixed fertilizer approach at the sub-humid locations. Results indicate that simplified approaches often lack the necessary characterization of the feedbacks between climate, soil, crop and management that are critical for accurately assessing crop system behavior under future climate. We recommend that modellers improve their capabilities of simulating expected changes in agronomy over time and employ tools that consider robust soil-plant-atmospheric processes.}, }
@article {pmid32570175, year = {2020}, author = {Terblanche, JS and Hoffmann, AA}, title = {Validating measurements of acclimation for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {41}, number = {}, pages = {7-16}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2020.04.005}, pmid = {32570175}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Acclimation and other forms of plasticity that can increase stress resistance feature strongly in discussions surrounding climate change impacts or vulnerability projections of insects and other ectotherms. There is interest in compiling databases for assessing the adequacy of acclimation for dealing with climate change. Here, we argue that the nature of acclimation is context dependent and therefore that estimates summarised across studies, especially those that have assayed stress using diverse methods, are limited in their utility when applied as a standardized metric or to a single general context such as average climate warming. Moreover, the dynamic nature of tolerances and acclimation drives important variation that is quickly obscured through many summary statistics or even in effect size analyses; retaining a strong focus on the temporal-level, population-level and treatment-level variance in forecasting climate change impacts on insects is essential. We summarise recent developments within the context of climate change and propose how future studies might validate the role of acclimation by integration across field studies and mechanistic modelling. Despite arguments to the contrary, to date no studies have convincingly demonstrated an important role for acclimation in recent climate change adaptation of insects. Paramount to these discussions is i) developing a strong conceptual framework for acclimation in the focal trait(s), ii) obtaining novel empirical data dissecting the fitness benefits and consequences of acclimation across diverse contexts and timescales, with iii) better coverage of under-represented geographic regions and taxa.}, }
@article {pmid32569752, year = {2020}, author = {Robert, MA and Stewart-Ibarra, AM and Estallo, EL}, title = {Climate change and viral emergence: evidence from Aedes-borne arboviruses.}, journal = {Current opinion in virology}, volume = {40}, number = {}, pages = {41-47}, doi = {10.1016/j.coviro.2020.05.001}, pmid = {32569752}, issn = {1879-6265}, abstract = {Climate change is leading to increases in global temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns, both of which are contributing to the expansion of mosquito-borne arboviruses and the populations of the mosquitos that vector them. Herein, we review recent evidence of emergence and expansion of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitos that has been driven in part by environmental changes. We present as a case study of recent work from Córdoba, Argentina, where dengue has been actively emerging in the past decade. We review recent empirical and modeling studies that aim to understand the impact of climate on future expansion of arboviruses, and we highlight gaps in empirical studies linking climate to arbovirus transmission at regional levels.}, }
@article {pmid32567564, year = {2020}, author = {Di Giorgi, E and Michielin, P and Michielin, D}, title = {Perception of climate change, loss of social capital and mental health in two groups of migrants from African countries.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {56}, number = {2}, pages = {150-156}, doi = {10.4415/ANN_20_02_04}, pmid = {32567564}, issn = {2384-8553}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The negative effects of climate change affect community subsistence models, thus determining an increase in social conflicts, a loosening of social capital, an increase in the incidence of traumas and diseases, and a push for migration.<br><br>AIM: This exploratory research compares the perception of climate change, as well as the reduction of social capital and mental health, in two groups of migrants arriving in Italy from African countries with high or extreme vulnerability to climate change.<br><br>METHODS: The perception of climate change and the degree of social capital were assessed with a semi-structured interview. The psychological condition was investigated through a clinical psychological interview and tests.<br><br>RESULTS: The group of migrants coming from countries with extreme exposure to climate change perceive greater vulnerability of their country and reports a greater loss of social capital. The level of education does not seem to affect the ability to perceive climate change. In the entire sample, there is a strong correlation between the perception of change and the loss of social capital, and between the loss of social capital and emotional disorders.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that actions to preserve the social capital of a community strongly exposed to climate change can mitigate the impact of change on mental health.}, }
@article {pmid32562994, year = {2020}, author = {Gaitán, E and Monjo, R and Pórtoles, J and Pino-Otín, MR}, title = {Impact of climate change on drought in Aragon (NE Spain).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {740}, number = {}, pages = {140094}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140094}, pmid = {32562994}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Droughts are one of the extreme climatic phenomena with the greatest and most persistent impact on health, economic activities and ecosystems and are poorly understood due to their complexity. The exacerbation of global warming throughout this century probably will cause an increase in droughts, so accurate studies of future projections at a local level, not done so far, are essential. Climate change scenarios of drought indexes for the region of Aragon (Spain) based on nine Earth System Models (ESMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) corresponding to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been generated for the first time. Meteorological Drought episodes were analysed from three main aspects: magnitude (index values), duration and spatial extent. The evolution of drought is also represented in a novel way, allowing identification, simultaneously, of the intensity of the episodes as well as their duration in different periods of accumulation and, for the first time, at the observatory level. Future meteorological drought scenarios based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) hardly show variations in water balance with respect to normal values. However, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) which, in addition to precipitation, considers evapotranspiration, shows a clear trend towards increasingly intense periods of drought, especially when considering cumulative periods and those at the end of the century. Representation of the territory of the drought indexes reflects that the most populated areas (Ebro Valley and SW of the region), will suffer the longest and most intense drought episodes. These results are key in the development of specific measures for adapting to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32562990, year = {2020}, author = {Ranjbar, MH and Etemad-Shahidi, A and Kamranzad, B}, title = {Modeling the combined impact of climate change and sea-level rise on general circulation and residence time in a semi-enclosed sea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {740}, number = {}, pages = {140073}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140073}, pmid = {32562990}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study provides an assessment of possible changes in the general circulation and residence time in the Persian Gulf under potential future sea-level rise and changes in the wind field due to the climate change. To determine the climate-change-induced impacts, Mike 3 Flow Model FM was used to simulate hydrodynamic and transport processes in the Persian Gulf in both historical (1998-2014) and future periods (2081-2100). Historical simulation was driven by ERA-Interim data. A statistical approach was employed to modify the values and directions of the future wind field obtained from the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) scenarios derived from CMCC-CM model of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The numerical model was calibrated and validated using measured data. Results indicated that in the historical period, residence time ranged between values of less than a month in the Strait of Hormuz and 10 years in the semi-enclosed area close to the south of Bahrain. The changes in wind field based on RCP 8.5 scenario were found to be the most disadvantageous for the Persian Gulf's capacity to flush dissolved pollutants out. Under this scenario, residence time would be 17% longer than that of historical one. This is mainly because the change in the wind field is large enough to overwhelm general circulation, showing a relationship between the residence time and the residual circulation. Impact of change in the wind field according to RCP 4.5 scenario on the modeled residence time is negligible. The numerical outputs also showed that the sea-level rise would slightly decrease the current velocity, resulting in a negligible increase in residence time. The findings of this study are intended to support establishing climate-adaptation management plans for coastal zones of the studied area in line with sustainable development goals.}, }
@article {pmid32562983, year = {2020}, author = {Zilli, M and Scarabello, M and Soterroni, AC and Valin, H and Mosnier, A and Leclère, D and Havlík, P and Kraxner, F and Lopes, MA and Ramos, FM}, title = {The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {740}, number = {}, pages = {139384}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139384}, pmid = {32562983}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Brazilian agricultural production provides a significant fraction of the food consumed globally, with the country among the top exporters of soybeans, sugar, and beef. However, current advances in Brazilian agriculture can be directly impacted by climate change and resulting biophysical effects. Here, we quantify these impacts until 2050 using GLOBIOM-Brazil, a global partial equilibrium model of the competition for land use between agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy that includes various refinements reflecting Brazil's specificities. For the first time, projections of future agricultural areas and production are based on future crop yields provided by two Global Gridded Crop Models (EPIC and LPJmL). The climate change forcing is included through changes in climatic variables projected by five Global Climate Models in two emission pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) participating in the ISIMIP initiative. This ensemble of twenty scenarios permits accessing the robustness of the results. When compared to the baseline scenario, GLOBIOM-Brazil scenarios suggest a decrease in soybeans and corn production, mainly in the Matopiba region in the Northern Cerrado, and southward displacement of agricultural production to near-subtropical and subtropical regions of the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biomes.}, }
@article {pmid32562043, year = {2020}, author = {Černý, J and Pokorný, R and Vejpustková, M and Šrámek, V and Bednář, P}, title = {Air temperature is the main driving factor of radiation use efficiency and carbon storage of mature Norway spruce stands under global climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01941-w}, pmid = {32562043}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {MZE-RO0118//Ministerstvo Zemědělství/ ; QK1810415//Národní Agentura pro Zemědělský Výzkum/ ; }, abstract = {Plant growth is affected by light availability, light capture, and the efficiency of light energy utilisation within the photosynthetic uptake processes. The radiation use efficiency (RUE) of four even-aged, fully stocked mature Norway spruce stands along a temperature, precipitation, and altitudinal gradient of the Czech Republic was investigated. A new straightforward, methodological approach involving an analysis of digital hemispherical photographs for RUE estimation was applied. The highest annual RUE value (0.72 g MJ-1) was observed in the stand characterised by the lowest mean annual air temperature, the highest annual amount of precipitation, located at the highest altitude, and with the lowest site index reflecting site fertility. From the viewpoint of global climate change mitigation, this stand fixed 4.14 Mg ha-1 and 13.93 Mg ha-1 of carbon units and CO2 molecules into above-ground biomass, respectively. The lowest RUE value (0.21 g MJ-1) within the studied growing season was found in the stand located at the lowest altitude representing the site with the highest mean air temperature and the lowest amount of precipitation where 1.27 Mg ha-1 and 4.28 Mg ha-1 of carbon units and CO2 molecules, respectively, were fixed. From the tested meteorological variables (mean air temperature, the monthly sums of temperature, precipitation, and air humidity), RUE was only significantly dependent on air temperature. Therefore, global warming can lead to diminishing RUE and carbon sequestration in Norway spruce stands, especially at low altitudes.}, }
@article {pmid32561759, year = {2020}, author = {Molina, C and Akçay, E and Dieckmann, U and Levin, SA and Rovenskaya, EA}, title = {Combating climate change with matching-commitment agreements.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {10251}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-63446-1}, pmid = {32561759}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Countries generally agree that global greenhouse gas emissions are too high, but prefer other countries reduce emissions rather than reducing their own. The Paris Agreement is intended to solve this collective action problem, but is likely insufficient. One proposed solution is a matching-commitment agreement, through which countries can change each other's incentives by committing to conditional emissions reductions, before countries decide on their unconditional reductions. Here, we study matching-commitment agreements between two heterogeneous countries. We find that such agreements (1) incentivize both countries to make matching commitments that in turn incentivize efficient emissions reductions, (2) reduce emissions from those expected without an agreement, and (3) increase both countries' welfare. Matching-commitment agreements are attractive because they do not require a central enforcing authority and only require countries to fulfil their promises; countries are left to choose their conditional and unconditional emissions reductions according to their own interests.}, }
@article {pmid32561376, year = {2020}, author = {Trebicki, P}, title = {Climate change and plant virus epidemiology.}, journal = {Virus research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {198059}, doi = {10.1016/j.virusres.2020.198059}, pmid = {32561376}, issn = {1872-7492}, abstract = {Changes in global climate driven by anthropogenic activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, have been progressively increasing and are projected to intensify. Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and temperature will have significant consequences for future food production, quality, distribution and security. The epidemiology of plant viruses will be altered in the future as a result of climate change. Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, increased temperature, changes to water availability and more frequent extreme weather events will have direct and indirect effects on plant viruses through changes in hosts and vectors. Predicted climatic changes will affect the distribution and survival of plant viruses and their vectors, which are expected to increase in many geographic regions. Furthermore, climate change can affect the virulence and pathogenicity of plant viruses, consequently increasing the frequency and scale of disease outbreaks. Thus, greater understanding of plant virus epidemiology is needed to better anticipate challenges ahead and to develop effective and robust control strategies that will aid in securing global food production for the future.}, }
@article {pmid32560995, year = {2020}, author = {Su, CW and Naqvi, B and Shao, XF and Li, JP and Jiao, Z}, title = {Trade and technological innovation: The catalysts for climate change and way forward for COP21.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {269}, number = {}, pages = {110774}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110774}, pmid = {32560995}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Following the adaptation of the Paris Agreement at COP21, it was noted that the traditional measures of carbon emissions have several limitations; and a reliable and relevant carbon emissions measurement is important to formulate a response to the challenge of climate change. This study, therefore, explores the relationship between international trade and consumption-based carbon emissions, which is a trade adjusted indicator; and measures the outflow and the inflow of emissions through exports and imports separately. We also include technological innovation in the model to understand its impact on consumption-based carbon emissions. The results show that exports and consumption-based carbon emissions are negatively associated, and technological innovation helps reducing the adverse effect of CO2 growth. In contrast, Imports and gross domestic product are positively linked with consumption-based carbon emissions. The findings also suggest the countries which embraced the Paris Climate Agreement must focus on consumption-based carbon emissions rather than the production-based carbon emissions.}, }
@article {pmid32560420, year = {2020}, author = {Calderaro, F and Vione, D}, title = {Possible Effect of Climate Change on Surface-Water Photochemistry: A Model Assessment of the Impact of Browning on the Photodegradation of Pollutants in Lakes during Summer Stratification. Epilimnion vs. Whole-Lake Phototransformation.}, journal = {Molecules (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {25}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/molecules25122795}, pmid = {32560420}, issn = {1420-3049}, abstract = {Water browning in lakes (progressive increase of the content of chromophoric dissolved organic matter, CDOM) has the potential to deeply alter the photodegradation kinetics of pollutants during summer stratification. Browning, which takes place as a consequence of climate change in several Nordic environments, causes the thermocline to be shallower, because higher CDOM decreases the penetration of sunlight inside the water column. Using a model approach, it is shown in this paper that pollutants occurring in the epilimnion would be affected differently depending on their main photodegradation pathway(s): almost no change for the direct photolysis, slight decrease in the degradation kinetics by the hydroxyl radicals (•OH, but the resulting degradation would be too slow for the process to be effective during summer stratification), considerable decrease for the carbonate radicals (CO3•-), increase for the excited triplet states of CDOM (3CDOM*) and singlet oxygen (1O2). Because it is difficult to find compounds that are highly reactive with CO3•- and poorly reactive with 3CDOM*, the degradation rate constant of many phenols and anilines would show a minimum with increasing dissolved organic carbon (DOC), because of the combination of decreasing CO3•- and increasing 3CDOM* photodegradation. In contrast, overall photodegradation would always be inhibited by browning when the whole water column (epilimnion + hypolimnion) is considered, either because of slower degradation kinetics in the whole water volume, or even at unchanged overall kinetics, because of unbalanced distribution of photoreactivity within the water column.}, }
@article {pmid32559529, year = {2020}, author = {Gong, X and Chen, Y and Wang, T and Jiang, X and Hu, X and Feng, J}, title = {Double-edged effects of climate change on plant invasions: Ecological niche modeling global distributions of two invasive alien plants.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {740}, number = {}, pages = {139933}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139933}, pmid = {32559529}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The prediction of the potential distribution of invasive alien species is key for the control of their proliferation. This study developed ensemble niche models to explore the distribution patterns of Cecropia peltata and Ulex europaeus under baseline and future conditions, as well as the factors that regulate them. The models were based on occurrence records as well as climate, land-use and topography datasets. Climatic factors played a stronger role than land-use and topographical factors in their distribution patterns. Additionally, temperature seasonality and temperature annual range were the optimal predictor for the global distributions of C. peltata and U. europaeus, respectively. Under the baseline-RCP 8.5 scenario in 2070, significant increases in habitat suitability for C. peltata were generally detected in tropical regions, while for U. europaeus under the same condition, significant increases in habitat suitability were generally observed in west coast of South America and Europe, suggesting the impacts of climate changes on species distribution may be species specific. The contrast changes of suitable habitat areas for U. europaeus under the baseline-2.6 and 8.5 scenarios may suggest that the scenarios of climate changes may modify its distribution patterns and variations in suitable habitats. The double-edged effects of global warming on plant invasions may be a result of the scenario specific climate change and the species-specific responses to changes in climate. Our findings highlight the importance of climate change scenario specific and species-specific research on the impact of climate change on plant invasions.}, }
@article {pmid32559438, year = {2020}, author = {Williamson, J}, title = {Nuclear war, climate change, and medical activism.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {6}, pages = {e221-e222}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30127-3}, pmid = {32559438}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid32559436, year = {2020}, author = {McMichael, C}, title = {Human mobility, climate change, and health: unpacking the connections.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {6}, pages = {e217-e218}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30125-X}, pmid = {32559436}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid32558904, year = {2020}, author = {Gérard, M and Vanderplanck, M and Wood, T and Michez, D}, title = {Global warming and plant-pollinator mismatches.}, journal = {Emerging topics in life sciences}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {77-86}, doi = {10.1042/ETLS20190139}, pmid = {32558904}, issn = {2397-8554}, abstract = {The mutualism between plants and their pollinators provides globally important ecosystem services, but it is likely to be disrupted by global warming that can cause mismatches between both halves of this interaction. In this review, we summarise the available evidence on (i) spatial or (ii) phenological shifts of one or both of the actors of this mutualism. While the occurrence of future spatial mismatches is predominantly theoretical and based on predictive models, there is growing empirical evidence of phenological mismatches occurring at the present day. Mismatches may also occur when pollinators and their host plants are still found together. These mismatches can arise due to (iii) morphological modifications and (iv) disruptions to host attraction and foraging behaviours, and it is expected that these mismatches will lead to novel community assemblages. Overall plant-pollinator interactions seem to be resilient biological networks, particularly because generalist species can buffer these changes due to their plastic behaviour. However, we currently lack information on where and why spatial mismatches do occur and how they impact the fitness of plants and pollinators, in order to fully assess if adaptive evolutionary changes can keep pace with global warming predictions.}, }
@article {pmid32558115, year = {2020}, author = {Sanderson, CE and Alexander, KA}, title = {Unchartered waters: Climate change likely to intensify infectious disease outbreaks causing mass mortality events in marine mammals.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15163}, pmid = {32558115}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {1518663//Directorate for Biological Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Infectious disease emergence has increased significantly over the last 30 years, with mass mortality events (MMEs) associated with epizootics becoming increasingly common. Factors influencing these events have been widely studied in terrestrial systems, but remain relatively unexplored in marine mammals. Infectious disease-induced MMEs (ID MMEs) have not been reported ubiquitously among marine mammal species, indicating that intrinsic (host) and/or extrinsic (environmental) ecological factors may influence this heterogeneity. We assess the occurrence of ID MMEs (1955-2018) across extant marine mammals (n = 129) in relation to key life-history characteristics (sociality, trophic level, habitat breadth) and environmental variables (season, sea surface temperature [SST] anomalies, El Niño occurrence). Our results show that ID MMEs have been reported in 14% of marine mammal species (95% CI 9%-21%), with 72% (n = 36; 95% CI 56%-84%) of these events caused predominantly by viruses, primarily morbillivirus and influenza A. Bacterial pathogens caused 25% (95% CI 14%-41%) of MMEs, with only one being the result of a protozoan pathogen. Overall, virus-induced MMEs involved a greater number of fatalities per event compared to other pathogens. No association was detected between the occurrence of ID MMEs and host characteristics, such as sociality or trophic level, but ID MMEs did occur more frequently in semiaquatic species (pinnipeds) compared to obligate ocean dwellers (cetaceans; χ2 = 9.6, p = .002). In contrast, extrinsic factors significantly influenced ID MMEs, with seasonality linked to frequency (χ2 = 19.85, p = .0002) and severity of these events, and global yearly SST anomalies positively correlated with their temporal occurrence (Z = 3.43, p = 2.7e-04). No significant association was identified between El Niño and ID MME occurrence (Z = 0.28, p = .81). With climate change forecasted to increase SSTs and the frequency of extreme seasonal weather events, epizootics causing MMEs are likely to intensify with significant consequences for marine mammal survival.}, }
@article {pmid32557877, year = {2020}, author = {Carroll, C and Noss, RF}, title = {Rewilding in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.13531}, pmid = {32557877}, issn = {1523-1739}, abstract = {Expansion of the global protected-area network has been proposed as a strategy to address threats from accelerating climate change and species extinction. A key step in increasing the effectiveness of such expansion is understanding how novel threats to biodiversity from climate change alter concepts such as rewilding, which have underpinned many proposals for large interconnected reserves. We reviewed potential challenges that climate change poses to rewilding and found that the conservation value of large protected areas persists under climate change. Nevertheless, more attention should be given to protection of microrefugia, macrorefugia, complete environmental gradients, and areas that connect current and future suitable climates and to maintaining ecosystem processes and stabilizing feedbacks via conservation strategies that are resilient to uncertainty regarding climate trends. Because a major element of the threat from climate change stems from its novel geographic patterns, we examined, as an example, the implications for climate-adaptation planning of latitudinal, longitudinal (continental to maritime), and elevational gradients in climate-change exposure across the Yellowstone-to-Yukon region, the locus of an iconic conservation proposal initially designed to conserve wide-ranging carnivore species. In addition to a continued emphasis on conserving intact landscapes, restoration of degraded low-elevation areas within the region is needed to capture sites important for landscape-level climate resilience. Extreme climate exposure projected for boreal North America suggests the need for ambitious goals for expansion of the protected-area network there to include refugia created by topography and ecological features, such as peatlands, whose conservation can also reduce emissions from carbon stored in soil. Qualitative understanding of underlying reserve design rules and the geography of climate-change exposure can strengthen the outcomes of inclusive regional planning processes that identify specific sites for protection.}, }
@article {pmid32555535, year = {2020}, author = {Turney, C and Ausseil, AG and Broadhurst, L}, title = {Urgent need for an integrated policy framework for biodiversity loss and climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-020-1242-2}, pmid = {32555535}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {CE170100015//Department of Education and Training | Australian Research Council (ARC)/ ; }, }
@article {pmid32552099, year = {2020}, author = {Bonebrake, TC and Rezende, EL and Bozinovic, F}, title = {Climate Change and Thermoregulatory Consequences of Activity Time in Mammals.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {196}, number = {1}, pages = {45-56}, doi = {10.1086/709010}, pmid = {32552099}, issn = {1537-5323}, abstract = {Activity times structure the thermal environments experienced by organisms. In mammals, species shift from being nocturnal to diurnal and vice versa, but the thermal consequences of variable activity patterns remain largely unexplored. Here we used theoretical thermoregulatory polygons bounded by estimates of basal metabolic rates (BMR), maximum metabolic rates (MMR), and thermal conductance (C) in small mammals to explore the metabolic consequences of exposure to global-scale daytime and nighttime temperatures. Model predictions indicated higher metabolic scope for activity for nocturnal species at low latitudes and that reduced minimum C and larger body size increased the geographic range in which nocturnality was advantageous. Consistent with predictions, within rodents nocturnal species have low C. However, nocturnal mammals tend to be smaller than diurnal species, likely reflecting the importance of additional factors driving body size. Projections of warming impacts on small mammals suggest that diurnal species could lose habitable space globally. Conversely, warming could lift cool temperature constraints on nocturnal species and increase habitable space, suggesting that a shift toward nocturnal niches might be favored in a warming world. Taken together, these findings demonstrate the importance of energetic considerations for endotherms in managing global change impacts on nocturnal and diurnal species.}, }
@article {pmid32552020, year = {2020}, author = {Albright, K and Shah, P and Santodomingo, M and Scandlyn, J}, title = {Dissemination of Information About Climate Change by State and Local Public Health Departments: United States, 2019-2020.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e1-e7}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2020.305723}, pmid = {32552020}, issn = {1541-0048}, abstract = {Objectives. To determine if and how state and local public health departments present information about climate change on their Web sites, their most public-facing platform.Methods. We collected data from every functioning state (n = 50), county (n = 2090), and city (n = 585) public health department Web site in the United States in 2019 and 2020. We analyzed data for presence and type of climate-related content and to determine whether there existed clear ways to find climate change information. We analyzed Web sites providing original content about climate change for explanatory or attributional language.Results. Fewer than half (40%) of state health department Web sites, and only 1.6% of county and 3.9% of city Web sites, provided clear ways to find climate change information, whether through provision of original content or links to external agencies' Web sites. Among Web sites providing original content, 48% provided no explanation of climate change causes.Conclusions. National and global public health associations have identified climate change as a public health emergency, but most state and local public health departments are not delivering that message. These departments must be better supported to facilitate dissemination of reliable, scientific information about climate change and its effects on health. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print June 18, 2020: e1-e7. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2020.305723).}, }
@article {pmid32551064, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, K and Liu, H and Pan, H and Shi, W and Zhao, Y and Li, S and Liu, J and Tao, J}, title = {Shifts in potential geographical distribution of Pterocarya stenoptera under climate change scenarios in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {4828-4837}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.6236}, pmid = {32551064}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change poses a serious threat to biodiversity. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of a species' habitat can help humans address the potential threats which may change the scope and distribution of species. Pterocarya stenoptera is a common fast-growing tree species often used in the ecological restoration of riverbanks and alpine forests in central and eastern China. Until now, the characteristics of the distribution of this species' habitat are poorly known as are the environmental factors that influence its preferred habitat. In the present study, the Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) algorithm and the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP) were used to establish the models for the potential distribution of this species by selecting 236 sites with known occurrences and 14 environmental variables. The results indicate that both models have good predictive power. Minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), annual precipitation (Bio12), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) were important environmental variables influencing the prediction of the Maxent model. According to the models, the temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China had high environmental suitability for this species, where the species had been recorded. Under each climate change scenario, climatic suitability of the existing range of this species increased, and its climatic niche expanded geographically to the north and higher elevation. GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. The projected spatial and temporal patterns of P. stenoptera can provide reference for the development of forest management and protection strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32546552, year = {2020}, author = {Kuvadia, M and Cummis, CE and Liguori, G and Wu, CL}, title = {'Green-gional' anesthesia: the non-polluting benefits of regional anesthesia to decrease greenhouse gases and attenuate climate change.}, journal = {Regional anesthesia and pain medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/rapm-2020-101452}, pmid = {32546552}, issn = {1532-8651}, abstract = {Volatile halogenated gases and nitrous oxide used as part of a balanced general anesthetic may contribute to global warming. By avoiding volatile inhalational agent use, regional anesthesia may reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help prevent global warming. We present a theoretical calculation of the potential benefits and a real-life example of how much regional anesthesia may reduce greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid32546223, year = {2020}, author = {Marques, R and Krüger, RF and Peterson, AT and de Melo, LF and Vicenzi, N and Jiménez-García, D}, title = {Climate change implications for the distribution of the babesiosis and anaplasmosis tick vector, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus.}, journal = {Veterinary research}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {81}, doi = {10.1186/s13567-020-00802-z}, pmid = {32546223}, issn = {1297-9716}, support = {Senior Scholar//Fulbright Visiting Scholar Program/ ; Ph.D Sandwich 47/2017//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change ranks among the most important issues globally, affecting geographic distributions of vectors and pathogens, and inducing losses in livestock production among many other damaging effects. We characterized the potential geographic distribution of the ticks Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus, an important vector of babesiosis and anaplasmosis globally. We evaluated potential geographic shifts in suitability patterns for this species in two periods (2050 and 2070) and under two emissions scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our results anticipate increases in suitability worldwide, particularly in the highest production areas for cattle. The Indo-Malayan region resulted in the highest cattle exposure under both climate change projections (2050), with increases in suitability of > 30%. This study illustrates how ecological niche modeling can be used to explore probable effects of climate change on disease vectors, and the possible consequences on economic dimensions.}, }
@article {pmid32543219, year = {2020}, author = {Hall, NL and Crosby, L}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Health in Remote Indigenous Communities in Australia.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-16}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2020.1777948}, pmid = {32543219}, issn = {1369-1619}, abstract = {Human-induced climate change in Australia is affecting the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including bushfires, cyclones and drought. Human health is affected by these climate impacts through direct impacts which include injuries and death from extreme events; indirect impacts through natural system changes such as impacts on water, food and air; and indirect impacts on human systems including mental health, productivity, and damage to housing and health-care facilities. Remote settlements are vulnerable to these climate impacts and associated health impacts due to isolated location, quality of the infrastructure, economic resources, limited transport, and existing health vulnerabilities that enable resilience or vulnerability. Remote Indigenous communities are particularly vulnerable. This research sought to identify vulnerabilities of human health of residents in remote Indigenous communities to human-induced climate change to contribute to adequate responses of prevention and preparation.}, }
@article {pmid32542573, year = {2020}, author = {Chen, K and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Dubrow, R}, title = {Projections of Ambient Temperature- and Air Pollution-Related Mortality Burden Under Combined Climate Change and Population Aging Scenarios: a Review.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s40572-020-00281-6}, pmid = {32542573}, issn = {2196-5412}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change will affect mortality associated with both ambient temperature and air pollution. Because older adults have elevated vulnerability to both non-optimal ambient temperature (heat and cold) and air pollution, population aging can amplify future population vulnerability to these stressors through increasing the number of vulnerable older adults. We aimed to review recent evidence on projections of temperature- or air pollution-related mortality burden (i.e., number of deaths) under combined climate change and population aging scenarios, with a focus on evaluating the role of population aging in assessing these health impacts of climate change. We included studies published between 2014 and 2019 with age-specific population projections.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: We reviewed 16 temperature projection studies and 15 air pollution projection studies. Nine of the temperature studies and four of the air pollution studies took population aging into account by performing age-stratified analyses that utilized age-specific relationships between temperature or air pollution exposures and mortality (i.e., age-specific exposure-response functions (ERFs)). Population aging amplifies the projected mortality burden of temperature and air pollution under a warming climate. Compared with a constant population scenario, population aging scenarios lead to less reduction or even increases in cold-related mortality burden, resulting in substantial net increases in future overall (heat and cold) temperature-related mortality burden. There is strong evidence suggesting that to accurately assess the future temperature- and air pollution-related mortality burden of climate change, investigators need to account for the amplifying effect of population aging. Thus, all future studies should incorporate age-specific population size projections and age-specific ERFs into their analyses. These studies would benefit from refinement of age-specific ERF estimates.}, }
@article {pmid32540181, year = {2020}, author = {Ostojic, SM}, title = {Eat less meat: Fortifying food with creatine to tackle climate change.}, journal = {Clinical nutrition (Edinburgh, Scotland)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.clnu.2020.05.030}, pmid = {32540181}, issn = {1532-1983}, }
@article {pmid32539935, year = {2020}, author = {Muller, JE and Nathan, DG}, title = {COVID-19, nuclear war, and global warming: lessons for our vulnerable world.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31379-9}, pmid = {32539935}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid32537981, year = {2020}, author = {Ji, XJ and Xu, YH and Zuo, X and Fang, WS and Lu, YY}, title = {[Estimating the climatic capacity of food security in Henan Province, China under the future climate change scenarios].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {853-862}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202003.011}, pmid = {32537981}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {To explore the effects of future climate change on food production in Henan Province, the climate potential productivity and its change characteristics in Henan Province were calculated by agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model. This study was based on the production potential and climate resource carrying capacity of summer maize and winter wheat, combined with the observation data of 111 meteorological stations in Henan Province from 1961 to 2017 and the meteorological data under two emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in 2041-2080. With the grain demand index under different living standards, we analyzed climate carrying capacity and surplus space of Henan Pro-vince. The results showed that the average climatic potential productivity of maize was 18408.87 kg·hm-2 from 1961 to 2017, with high values in the middle and east, and low values in the west. Compared with the reference period (1981-2010), climatic potential productivity of maize under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 decreased by 13.0% and 8.0% respectively, with the high value center shifting from the east to the southwest of Henan. The average climatic potential productivity of wheat was 10889.79 kg·hm-2, which was high in the middle region and low in the north. Compared with the reference period, climatic potential productivity of wheat under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 decreased by 18.6% and 21.7%, respectively. Under the current condition of subsistence and well-off food demand, the maximum carrying capacity of climate resources respectively could support 252 million and 183 million people. In 2070s (2071-2080), the average supporting population of the maximum climate resource carrying capacity (Cmax) would decrease. Compared with the reference period, Cmax under the level of well-off and subsistence would decrease by 9.7% and 18.4% respectively in RCP4.5 scenario, and 7.7% and 16.6% respectively in RCP8.5 scenario. Under current climate condition, the relative surplus rate of climate resources in Henan Province ranged from -93.0% to 356.9%. Compared with the reference period, the relative residual rate of climate resources in the future would reduce nearly 40%.}, }
@article {pmid32537737, year = {2020}, author = {Wooliver, R and Tittes, SB and Sheth, SN}, title = {A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of thermal performance in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/evo.14041}, pmid = {32537737}, issn = {1558-5646}, abstract = {Evolutionary rescue can prevent populations from declining under climate change, and should be more likely at high-latitude, &quot;leading&quot; edges of species' ranges due to greater temperature anomalies and gene flow from warm-adapted populations. Using a resurrection study with seeds collected before and after a seven-year period of record warming, we tested for thermal adaptation in the scarlet monkeyflower Mimulus cardinalis. We grew ancestors and descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge populations across eight temperatures. Despite recent climate anomalies, populations showed limited evolution of thermal performance curves. However, one southern population evolved a narrower thermal performance breadth by 1.31°C, which matches the direction and magnitude of the average decrease in seasonality experienced. Consistent with the climate variability hypothesis, thermal performance breadth increased with temperature seasonality across the species' geographic range. Inconsistent with performance trade-offs between low and high temperatures across populations, we did not detect a positive relationship between thermal optimum and mean temperature. These findings fail to support the hypothesis that evolutionary response to climate change is greatest at the leading edge, and suggest that the evolution of thermal performance is unlikely to rescue most populations from the detrimental effects of rapidly changing climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid32536734, year = {2020}, author = {Woodside, AG}, title = {Interventions as experiments: Connecting the dots in forecasting and overcoming pandemics, global warming, corruption, civil rights violations, misogyny, income inequality, and guns.}, journal = {Journal of business research}, volume = {117}, number = {}, pages = {212-218}, pmid = {32536734}, issn = {0148-2963}, abstract = {This essay applies the &quot;ultimate broadening of the concept of marketing&quot; for designing and implementing interventions in public laws and policy, national and local regulations, and everyday lives of individuals. The ultimate broadening of the concept of marketing: Marketing is any activity, message, emotion, or behavior by someone, firm, organization, government, community, or brand executed consciously or nonconsciously that may stimulate an observable or non-observable activity, emotion, attitude, belief, or thought by someone else, group, organization, firm or community. The broadening definition applies to the current interventions by national and state/provincial governments as well as healthcare facilities, medical science facilities, firms, and individuals to mitigate and eliminate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Framing interventions as experiments is helpful in improving the quality of their designs, implementing them successfully, and validly interpreting their effectiveness. In January and February 2020, a few nations were exemplars for accurately forecasting the coming disaster of COVID-19 as a cause of illness and death and in designing/implementing effective mitigating strategies: Denmark, Finland, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, Norway, and Vietnam. While the COVID-19 prevention intervention tests now being run for several promising vaccines are true experiments, the researchers analyzing the data from these interventions may need prompting to examine the efficacy of each vaccine tested by modeling demographic subgroups for the members in the treatment and placebo groups in the randomized control trials.}, }
@article {pmid32535971, year = {2020}, author = {Pierangelini, M and Thiry, M and Cardol, P}, title = {Different levels of energetic coupling between photosynthesis and respiration do not determine the occurrence of adaptive responses of Symbiodiniaceae to global warming.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.16738}, pmid = {32535971}, issn = {1469-8137}, abstract = {Disentangling the metabolic functioning of corals' endosymbionts (Symbiodiniaceae) is relevant to understand the response of coral reefs to warming oceans. In this work, we first questioned if there is an energetic coupling between photosynthesis and respiration in Symbiodiniaceae (Symbiodinium, Durusdinium and Effrenium), and second, how different levels of energetic coupling will affect their adaptive responses to global warming. Coupling between photosynthesis and respiration was established by determining the variation of metabolic rates during thermal response curves, and how inhibition of respiration affects photosynthesis. Adaptive responses (not reversible) were studied exposing two Symbiodinium species, with different levels of photosynthesis-respiration interaction, to high temperature (32°C) for one year. We found that some Symbiodiniaceae have a high level of energetic coupling, i.e. photosynthesis and respiration have the same temperature dependency, and photosynthesis is negatively affected when respiration is inhibited. Conversely, photosynthesis and respiration are not coupled in other species. In any case, prolonged exposure to high temperature caused adjustments of both photosynthesis and respiration but these changes were fully reversible. We conclude that energetic coupling between photosynthesis and respiration has wide variation amongst Symbiodiniaceae and does not determine the occurrence of adaptive responses in Symbiodiniaceae to temperature increase.}, }
@article {pmid32534623, year = {2020}, author = {Choudhary, S and Guha, A and Kholova, J and Pandravada, A and Messina, CD and Cooper, M and Vadez, V}, title = {Maize, sorghum, and pearl millet have highly contrasting species strategies to adapt to water stress and climate change-like conditions.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {295}, number = {}, pages = {110297}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2019.110297}, pmid = {32534623}, issn = {1873-2259}, abstract = {This study compared maize, sorghum and pearl-millet, leading C4 cereals, for the transpiration rate (TR) response to increasing atmospheric and soil water stress. The TR response to transiently increasing VPD (0.9-4.1 kPa) and the transpiration and leaf area expansion response to progressive soil drying were measured in controlled conditions at early vegetative stage in 10-16 genotypes of each species grown in moderate or high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) conditions. Maize grown under moderate VPD conditions restricted TR under high VPD, but not sorghum and pearl millet. By contrast, when grown under high VPD, all species increased TR upon increasing VPD, suggesting a loss of TR responsiveness. Sorghum and pearl-millet grown under high VPD reduced leaf area, but not maize. Upon progressive soil drying, maize reduced transpiration at higher soil moisture than sorghum and pearl millet, especially under high VPD, and leaf area expansion declined at similar or lower soil moisture than transpiration in maize and sorghum. It is concluded that maize conserves water by restricting transpiration upon increasing VPD and under higher soil moisture than sorghum and millet, giving maize significantly higher TE, whereas sorghum and pearl millet rely mostly on reduced leaf area and somewhat on transpiration restriction.}, }
@article {pmid32534610, year = {2020}, author = {Sade, N and Peleg, Z}, title = {Future challenges for global food security under climate change.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {295}, number = {}, pages = {110467}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2020.110467}, pmid = {32534610}, issn = {1873-2259}, }
@article {pmid32534609, year = {2020}, author = {Schlautman, B and Diaz-Garcia, L and Barriball, S}, title = {Reprint of: Morphometric approaches to promote the use of exotic germplasm for improved food security and resilience to climate change: A kura clover example.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {295}, number = {}, pages = {110415}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2020.110415}, pmid = {32534609}, issn = {1873-2259}, abstract = {Adaptation of agriculture to climate change and its associated ecological pressures will require new crops, novel trait combinations, and previously unknown phenotypic attributes to deploy in climate resilient cropping systems. Genebanks, a primary source of exotic germplasm for novel crops and breeding materials, need comprehensive methods to detect novel and unknown phenotypes without a priori information about the species or trait under consideration. We demonstrate how persistent homology (PH) and elliptical fourier descriptors (EFD), two morphometric techniques easily applied to image-based data, can serve this purpose by cataloging leaf morphology in the USDA NPGS kura clover collection and demarcating a leaf morphospace for the species. Additionally, we identify a set of representative accessions spanning the leaf morphospace and propose they serve as a kura clover core collection. The core collection will be a framework for monitoring the effects of climate change on kura clover in situ diversity and determining the role of ex situ accessions in modern agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid32533326, year = {2020}, author = {Coelho, S and Rafael, S and Coutinho, M and Monteiro, A and Medina, J and Figueiredo, S and Cunha, S and Lopes, M and Miranda, AI and Borrego, C}, title = {Climate-Change Adaptation Framework for Multiple Urban Areas in Northern Portugal.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01313-5}, pmid = {32533326}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly exerting pressure with intensified impacts in the short-, medium-, and long-term. Cities are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and it is recognized that they play a significant role in the European Strategy on adaptation to climate change. This study intends to develop a climate adaptation framework to identify effective measures that will be evaluated using a multi-urban area located in the north of Portugal, as a case study. The climate adaptation framework was developed following the Urban Adaptation Support Tool (AST), adapted to the Portuguese reality. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to provide future projections with a high level of spatial resolution over the study area, increasing the accuracy of the identification of future climatic vulnerabilities. The results show a tendency for an increase of extreme weather events associated with the increase of both temperature and annual accumulated precipitation variables. A set of both urban and rural measures to promote a sustainable development path to climate adaptability and increase cities resilience to climate change are presented and discussed.}, }
@article {pmid32531093, year = {2020}, author = {Levin, LA and Wei, CL and Dunn, DC and Amon, DJ and Ashford, OS and Cheung, WWL and Colaço, A and Dominguez-Carrió, C and Escobar, EG and Harden-Davies, HR and Drazen, JC and Ismail, K and Jones, DOB and Johnson, DE and Le, JT and Lejzerowicz, F and Mitarai, S and Morato, T and Mulsow, S and Snelgrove, PVR and Sweetman, AK and Yasuhara, M}, title = {Climate Change Considerations are Fundamental to Management of Deep-Sea Resource Extraction.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15223}, pmid = {32531093}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change manifestation in the ocean, through warming, oxygen loss, increasing acidification and changing particulate organic carbon flux (one metric of altered food supplies), is projected to affect most deep-ocean ecosystems concomitantly with increasing direct human disturbance. Climate drivers will alter deep-sea biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, and may interact with disturbance from resource extraction activities or even climate geoengineering. We suggest that to ensure the effective management of increasing use of the deep ocean (e.g., for bottom fishing, oil and gas extraction, and deep-seabed mining), environmental management and developing regulations must consider climate change. Strategic planning, impact assessment and monitoring, spatial management, application of the precautionary approach and full-cost accounting of extraction activities should embrace climate consciousness. Coupled climate and biological modeling approaches applied in the water and on the seafloor can help accomplish this goal. For example, earth-system model projections of climate-change parameters at the seafloor reveal heterogeneity in projected climate hazard and time of emergence (beyond natural variability) in regions targeted for deep-seabed mining. Models that combine climate-induced changes in ocean circulation with particle tracking predict altered transport of early life stages (larvae) under climate change. Habitat suitability models can help assess the consequences of altered larval dispersal, predict climate refugia, and identify vulnerable regions for multiple species under climate change. Engaging the deep observing community can support the necessary data provisioning to mainstream climate into the development of environmental management plans. To illustrate this approach, we focus on deep-seabed mining and the International Seabed Authority, whose mandates include regulation of all mineral-related activities in international waters and protecting the marine environment from the harmful effects of mining. However, achieving deep-ocean sustainability under the UN Sustainable Development Goals will require integration of climate consideration across all policy sectors.}, }
@article {pmid32531086, year = {2020}, author = {Scheiter, S and Kumar, D and Corlett, RT and Gaillard, C and Langan, L and Lapuz, RS and Martens, C and Pfeiffer, M and Kyle, TW}, title = {Climate change promotes transitions to tall evergreen vegetation in tropical Asia.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15217}, pmid = {32531086}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Vegetation in tropical Asia is highly diverse due to large environmental gradients and heterogeneity of landscapes. This biodiversity is threatened by intense land use and climate change. However, despite the rich biodiversity and the dense human population, tropical Asia is often underrepresented in global biodiversity assessments. Understanding how climate change influences the remaining areas of natural vegetation is therefore highly important for conservation planning. Here, we used a dynamic vegetation model, aDGVM2, to simulate climate change impacts on vegetation formations in tropical Asia for an ensemble of climate change scenarios. We used climate forcing from five different climate models for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We found that vegetation in tropical Asia will remain a carbon sink until 2099, and that vegetation biomass increases of up to 28% by 2099 are associated with transitions from small to tall woody vegetation and from deciduous to evergreen vegetation. Patterns of phenology were less responsive to climate change than biomes and biomass, indicating that the selection of variables and methods used to detect vegetation changes is crucial. Model simulations revealed substantial variation within the ensemble, both in biomass increases and in distributions of different biome types. Our results have important implications for management policy, because they suggest that large ensembles of climate models and scenarios are required to assess a wide range of potential future trajectories of vegetation change, and to develop robust management plans. Furthermore, our results highlight open ecosystems with low tree cover as most threatened by climate change, indicating potential conicts of interests between biodiversity conservation in open ecosystems and active afforestation to enhance carbon sequestration.}, }
@article {pmid32530199, year = {2020}, author = {Li, N and Bai, R and Wu, L and Li, W and Chen, M and Chen, X and Fan, CH and Yang, GS}, title = {[Impacts of future climate change on spring phenology stages of rubber tree in Hainan, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {31}, number = {4}, pages = {1241-1249}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202004.002}, pmid = {32530199}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {To explore the impacts of future climate change on spring phenology stages (first leaf storey expansion stage, spring flowering stage) of rubber tree in Hainan Island, we established a rubber tree spring phenology simulation model based on the crop clock model and developed a computer software RubberSP. The model simulation accuracy was examined with experimental observed phenology data. Five global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were integrated using Bayesian Model averaging method (BMA) to predict the impacts of climate change on the spring phenology of rubber tree in 2020-2099 (relative to 1986-2017) under climate scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The results showed that the RubberSP model had good simulation accuracy, with the determination coefficient (R2) values ranging between 0.73-0.87, the root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 3.26 to 4.15 d, and the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 3.4%-7.4% between measured and simulated phenology stages. The uncertainty of a single GCM could be avoided by BMA method, which could better reflect the change trend of temperature. Temperature of Hainan Island in the end of 21 century, under the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, would increase by more than 0.3, 1.0 and 2.5 ℃ compared with the baseline, respectively. The spring phenology stages would appear earlier and yield would increase in the future climate scenario. The time isoline of spring phenology stages would move forward to northwest, which indicated that most suitable area for rubber tree plantation in Hainan Island would expand to the northwest. The spatial difference of the first leaf storey expansion stage would be more evident, but not for spring flowering stage. The amplitude of rubber tree spring phenology variations was closely related to the increases of temperature under different RCP scenarios, with the most apparent change under RCP8.5 scenario and most mild change under RCP2.6 scenario.}, }
@article {pmid32530127, year = {2020}, author = {Andersen, LK and Coates, SJ and Enbiale, W and Boos, MD and Dayrit, JF and Davis, MDP}, title = {Climate change perception among dermatologists: an online survey of International Society of Dermatology members.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.14984}, pmid = {32530127}, issn = {1365-4632}, }
@article {pmid32530107, year = {2020}, author = {Monaco, CJ and Bradshaw, CJA and Booth, DJ and Gillanders, BM and Schoeman, DS and Nagelkerken, I}, title = {Dietary generalism accelerates arrival and persistence of coral-reef fishes in their novel ranges under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15221}, pmid = {32530107}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change is redistributing marine and terrestrial species globally. Life-history traits mediate the ability of species to cope with novel environmental conditions, and can be used to gauge the potential redistribution of taxa facing the challenges of a changing climate. However, it is unclear whether the same traits are important across different stages of range shifts (arrival, population increase, persistence). To test which life-history traits most mediate the process of range extension, we used a 16-year dataset of 35 range-extending coral-reef fish species and quantified the importance of various traits on the arrival time (earliness) and degree of persistence (prevalence and patchiness) at higher latitudes. We show that traits predisposing species to shift their range more rapidly (large body size, broad latitudinal range, long dispersal duration) did not drive the early stages of redistribution. Instead, we found that as diet breadth increased, the initial arrival and establishment (prevalence and patchiness) of climate migrant species in temperate locations occurred earlier. While the initial incursion of range-shifting species depends on traits associated with dispersal potential, subsequent establishment hinges more on a species' ability to exploit novel food resources locally. These results highlight that generalist species that can best adapt to novel food sources might be most successful in a future ocean.}, }
@article {pmid32529641, year = {2020}, author = {Linde, S}, title = {The Politicization of Risk: Party Cues, Polarization, and Public Perceptions of Climate Change Risk.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13530}, pmid = {32529641}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {2011-1844//Swedish Research Council/ ; 2016-03058//Swedish Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Previous research shows that public perceptions of climate change risk are strongly related to the individual willingness to support climate mitigation and adaptation policy. In this article, I investigate how public perceptions of climate change risk are affected by communications from political parties and the degree of polarization among them. Specifically, using survey data from Sweden, Norway, Australia, and New Zealand, I study the relationship between party source cues, perceived polarization, and public perceptions of climate change risk. The results reveal a positive relationship between party cues and perceptions of climate change risk, indicating that individuals adjust their risk perceptions to align with their party preference. Furthermore, a negative relationship between perceived polarization and individual risk perceptions is also discovered, showing that individuals tend to be less concerned with climate change the more polarization they perceive. However, the effect of perceived polarization is found to be limited to more abstract perceptions of risk, while being unrelated to perceptions of concrete risks. Even with some contextual variance, the results generally hold up well across the four countries.}, }
@article {pmid32526496, year = {2020}, author = {Uchiyama, C and Stevenson, LA and Tandoko, E}, title = {Climate change research in Asia: A knowledge synthesis of Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (2013-2018).}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {188}, number = {}, pages = {109635}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109635}, pmid = {32526496}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Countering climate challenges requires genuine multi-layered approaches in cooperation with various stakeholders. Spanning 20 years, the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) has been facilitating the research community to provide regional and grassroots results and solutions, while acting as a mechanism to encourage science-policy-stakeholder dialogue. This paper outlines the relevance of APN projects to IPCC policymaking by laying out knowledge products and lessons learned from the projects. It also narrates how regional research and capacity building assist in responding to the increasing urgency across climate change and the SDGs. A synthesis of project-generated knowledge was garnered from research and capacity development studies conducted under the auspices of APN to identify their scope and level of policy relevance. A combined typology and solution scanning with Likert scale as relevance rating was employed to categorize contribution against key themes of the IPCC sixth assessment report. Findings suggest 115 distinct and relevant projects completed mostly in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Temperate East Asia, with many of them asserting community-based adaptation and mitigation surrounding issues on ecosystems and biodiversity, extreme weather events, water-food-energy nexus, sustainable waste management, and climate education. Findings also show 163 knowledge products in which majority of them (66.87%) were peer-reviewed journal articles, 11.04% were reports, 7.98% were policy briefs, 6.75% were guidelines and tools, 4.91% were books and 2.45% were perspectives and opinions. With the evolving synergies between global climate targets and the SDGs, it is recommended that APN solidify its role in science-policy partnerships and networking by creating improved interlinkages for disseminating knowledge gaps filled and in replicating lessons learned and best practices found in APN knowledge products. In addition to science-policy dialogues and output synthesis, a regular review of APN research and capacity development outcomes will help in realizing these important aspects toward wider policy impact.}, }
@article {pmid32524610, year = {2020}, author = {Geffroy, B and Wedekind, C}, title = {Effects of global warming on sex ratios in fishes.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.14429}, pmid = {32524610}, issn = {1095-8649}, abstract = {In fishes, sex is either determined by genetics, the environment, or an interaction of both. Temperature is among the most important environmental factors that can affect sex determination. As a consequence, changes in temperature at critical developmental stages can induce biases in primary sex ratios in some species. However, early sex ratios can also be biased by sex-specific tolerances to environmental stresses that may, in some cases, be amplified by changes in water temperature. Sex-specific reactions to environmental stress have been observed at early larval stages before gonad formation starts. It is therefore necessary to distinguish between temperature effects on sex determination, generally acting through the stress axis or epigenetic mechanisms, and temperature effects on sex-specific mortality. Both are likely to affect sex ratios and hence population dynamics. Moreover, in cases where temperature effects on sex determination lead to genotype-phenotype mismatches, long-term effects on population dynamics are possible. For example, temperature-induced masculinization potentially leading to the loss of Y chromosomes, or feminization to male-biased operational sex ratios in future generations. To date, most studies under controlled conditions conclude that if temperature affects sex ratios, elevated temperatures mostly lead to a male bias. The few studies that have been performed on wild populations seem to confirm this general trend. Recent findings suggest that transgenerational plasticity could potentially mitigate the effects of warming on sex ratios in some populations.}, }
@article {pmid32523595, year = {2020}, author = {Lyu, D and Backer, R and Subramanian, S and Smith, DL}, title = {Phytomicrobiome Coordination Signals Hold Potential for Climate Change-Resilient Agriculture.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {634}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00634}, pmid = {32523595}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {A plant growing under natural conditions is always associated with a substantial, diverse, and well-orchestrated community of microbes-the phytomicrobiome. The phytomicrobiome genome is larger and more fluid than that of the plant. The microbes of the phytomicrobiome assist the plant in nutrient uptake, pathogen control, stress management, and overall growth and development. At least some of this is facilitated by the production of signal compounds, both plant-to-microbe and microbe back to the plant. This is best characterized in the legume nitrogen fixing and mycorrhizal symbioses. More recently lipo-chitooligosaccharide (LCO) and thuricin 17, two microbe-to-plant signals, have been shown to regulate stress responses in a wide range of plant species. While thuricin 17 production is constitutive, LCO signals are only produced in response to a signal from the plant. We discuss how some signal compounds will only be discovered when root-associated microbes are exposed to appropriate plant-to-microbe signals (positive regulation), and this might only happen under specific conditions, such as abiotic stress, while others may only be produced in the absence of a particular plant-to-microbe signal molecule (negative regulation). Some phytomicrobiome members only elicit effects in a specific crop species (specialists), while other phytomicrobiome members elicit effects in a wide range of crop species (generalists). We propose that some specialists could exhibit generalist activity when exposed to signals from the correct plant species. The use of microbe-to-plant signals can enhance crop stress tolerance and could result in more climate change resilient agricultural systems.}, }
@article {pmid32517413, year = {2017}, author = {Engemann, C and Schrickel, I}, title = {Trading Zones of Climate Change: Introduction.}, journal = {Berichte zur Wissenschaftsgeschichte}, volume = {40}, number = {2}, pages = {111-119}, doi = {10.1002/bewi.201701847}, pmid = {32517413}, issn = {1522-2365}, }
@article {pmid32517411, year = {2017}, author = {Schrickel, I and Engemann, C}, title = {Dealing with Climate Change: A Conversation with Paul N. Edwards and Oliver Geden.}, journal = {Berichte zur Wissenschaftsgeschichte}, volume = {40}, number = {2}, pages = {175-185}, doi = {10.1002/bewi.201701848}, pmid = {32517411}, issn = {1522-2365}, }
@article {pmid32520971, year = {2020}, author = {Krauss, A and Colombo, M}, title = {Explaining public understanding of the concepts of climate change, nutrition, poverty and effective medical drugs: An international experimental survey.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {e0234036}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0234036}, pmid = {32520971}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change, nutrition, poverty and medical drugs are widely discussed and pressing issues in science, policy and society. Despite these issues being of great importance for the quality of our lives it remains unclear how well people understand them. Specifically, do particular demographic and socioeconomic factors explain variation in public understanding of these four concepts? To what extent are people's changes in understanding associated with changes in their behaviour? Do people judge scientific practices relying on the more descriptive concepts of climate change and effective medical drugs to be more objective (less controversial) than practices relying on the more value-laden concepts of poverty and healthy nutrition? To address these questions, an experimental survey and regression analyses are conducted using data collected from about one thousand participants across different continents. The study finds that public understanding of science is generally low. A smaller proportion of people were able to correctly identify the common explanation accepted internationally among the scientific community for climate change and effectiveness of medical drugs (42% and 43% of participants in the study, respectively) than for poverty and healthy nutrition (61% and 65% of participants, respectively). Older age and political non-conservativeness were the strongest predictors of correctly understanding these four concepts. Greater levels of education and political non-conservativeness were in turn the strongest predictors of people's reported changes in their behaviour based on their improved understanding of these concepts. Because climate change is among the least understood scientific concepts but is arguably the greatest challenge of our time, better efforts are needed to improve how media, awareness campaigns and education systems mediate information on the topic in order to tackle the large knowledge deficits that constrain behavioural change.}, }
@article {pmid32520636, year = {2020}, author = {Byers, JE}, title = {Marine Parasites and Disease in the Era of Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Annual review of marine science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-031920-100429}, pmid = {32520636}, issn = {1941-0611}, abstract = {Climate change affects ecological processes and interactions, including parasitism. Because parasites are natural components of ecological systems, as well as agents of outbreak and disease-induced mortality, it is important to summarize current knowledge of the sensitivity of parasites to climate and identify how to better predict their responses to it. This need is particularly great in marine systems, where the responses of parasites to climate variables are less well studied than those in other biomes. As examples of climate's influence on parasitism increase, they enable generalizations of expected responses as well as insight into useful study approaches, such as thermal performance curves that compare the vital rates of hosts and parasites when exposed to several temperatures across a gradient. For parasites not killed by rising temperatures, some simple physiological rules, including the tendency of temperature to increase the metabolism of ectotherms and increase oxygen stress on hosts, suggest that parasites' intensity and pathologies might increase. In addition to temperature, climate-induced changes in dissolved oxygen, ocean acidity, salinity, and host and parasite distributions also affect parasitism and disease, but these factors are much less studied. Finally, because parasites are constituents of ecological communities, we must consider indirect and secondary effects stemming from climate-induced changes in host-parasite interactions, which may not be evident if these interactions are studied in isolation. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Marine Science, Volume 13 is January 3, 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.}, }
@article {pmid32519446, year = {2020}, author = {Kalogirou, MR and Olson, J and Davidson, S}, title = {Nursing's metaparadigm, climate change and planetary health.}, journal = {Nursing inquiry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e12356}, doi = {10.1111/nin.12356}, pmid = {32519446}, issn = {1440-1800}, abstract = {This paper offers a theoretical discussion on why the nursing profession has had a delayed response to the issue of climate change. We suggest this delay may have been influenced by the early days of nursing's professionalization. Specifically, we examine nursing's professional mandate, the generally accepted metaparadigm, and the grand theorists' conceptualizations of both the environment and the nurse-environment relationship. We conclude that these works may have encouraged nurses to conceptualize the environment, as well as their relationship with it, mainly in terms of the individual patient, and as such, nurses have not been encouraged to understand these concepts from a broader perspective. By not having the philosophical and theoretical foundations to understand the environment in relation to society, it is not surprising that nurses have had a delayed response to climate change and may not have viewed it as a professional concern. A planetary health perspective is suggested as a theoretical basis for nursing education, research and practice. Taking on a planetary health perspective could help nurses progress the profession and move healthcare systems towards supporting a climate-resilient future.}, }
@article {pmid32518851, year = {2020}, author = {Adjonou, K and Abotsi, KE and Segla, KN and Rabiou, H and Houetchegnon, T and Sourou, KNB and Johnson, BN and Ouinsavi, CAIN and Kokutse, AD and Mahamane, A and Kokou, K}, title = {Vulnerability of African Rosewood (Pterocarpus erinaceus, Fabaceae) natural stands to climate change and implications for silviculture in West Africa.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {e04031}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04031}, pmid = {32518851}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Pterocarpus erinaceus is a native tree species of the Guineo-Sudanian and Sudano-Sahelian zones where natural stands are under constant pressure and heavily exploited for timber, animal feeding and others uses. A part from the overexploitation, climate change could also become a serious threat to the species natural distribution. For that purposes, this study aims to assess the vulnerability of P. erinaceus potential niche to climate change within its natural distribution area in West Africa. Niche predictions are based on 6,981 natural occurrence of the species and 19 global bioclimatic variables available through WorldClim. The future niche of the species is predicted according to three concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) of BC model for 2050 and 2070, thanks to Maxent software. P. erinaceus is currently reported from Senegal to Cameroon. Its potential niche covers the Sudano-Sahelian zone and the Dahomey gap on approximately 17.42% of the total area of these countries. In general, the niche of the species is not sensitive to climate change, regardless of the climate scenario and the year. Compared to its initial niche, the niche of the species will increase from 22.33% to 43.61% in 2050 and from 27.12% to 53.61% in 2070. However, this ecological expansion observed mainly in the Gulf of Guinea, will be associated with a considerable decrease in the Sahel and central Nigeria. This study shows the importance of promoting the development of innovative silvicultural strategies for the extension and restoration of natural stands of P. erinaceus in order to meet sustainably the timber needs of the West African region. It helps also to strengthening the roles of natural forests in providing ecosystem services and mitigating climate change effects.}, }
@article {pmid32517948, year = {2020}, author = {Gomez-Zavaglia, A and Mejuto, JC and Simal-Gandara, J}, title = {Mitigation of emerging implications of climate change on food production systems.}, journal = {Food research international (Ottawa, Ont.)}, volume = {134}, number = {}, pages = {109256}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodres.2020.109256}, pmid = {32517948}, issn = {1873-7145}, abstract = {Crops, livestock and seafood are major contributors to global economy. Agriculture and fisheries are especially dependent on climate. Thus, elevated temperatures and carbon dioxide levels can have large impacts on appropriate nutrient levels, soil moisture, water availability and various other critical performance conditions. Changes in drought and flood frequency and severity can pose severe challenges to farmers and threaten food safety. In addition, increasingly warmer water temperatures are likely to shift the habitat ranges of many fish and shellfish species, ultimately disrupting ecosystems. In general, climate change will probably have negative implications for farming, animal husbandry and fishing. The effects of climate change must be taken into account as a key aspect along with other evolving factors with a potential impact on agricultural production, such as changes in agricultural practices and technology; all of them with a serious impact on food availability and price. This review is intended to provide critical and timely information on climate change and its implications in the food production/consumption system, paying special attention to the available mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32514221, year = {2020}, author = {Goymann, W}, title = {What the Corona (SARS-CoV 2) pandemic, climate change, and the biodiversity crisis teach us about human nature.}, journal = {Ethology : formerly Zeitschrift fur Tierpsychologie}, volume = {126}, number = {6}, pages = {593-594}, doi = {10.1111/eth.13031}, pmid = {32514221}, issn = {0179-1613}, }
@article {pmid32514079, year = {2020}, author = {Sanderson, BM and O'Neill, BC}, title = {Assessing the costs of historical inaction on climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {9173}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-66275-4}, pmid = {32514079}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {ANR-17-MPGA-0016-0001//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; }, abstract = {We consider alternative history scenarios in which explicit climate mitigation begins before the present day, estimating the total costs to date of delayed action. Considering a 2(1.5) degree Celsius stabilization target, peak costs are greater and reached sooner with a later start to mitigation, reaching 15(17)% of global GDP in 2085(2070) for a 1990 start and 18(35)% in 2080(2035) for a 2020 start. Further mitigation delay costs a best estimate of an additional 0.5(5) trillion dollars per year. Additional simulations show how optimal mitigation pathways evolve without imposing a warming limit, finding that median abatement levels and costs are not strongly dependent on start date. However, whereas 18(5) percent of optimal solutions starting in 1980 meet the 2(or 1.5) degree target, 5(or 0)% of 2020 simulations meet the goals. Discounted damages due to delayed mitigation action rise by 0.6 trillion US dollars per year in 2020.}, }
@article {pmid32513980, year = {2020}, author = {Wang, R and Yang, H and Wang, M and Zhang, Z and Huang, T and Wen, G and Li, Q}, title = {Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in China under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {9202}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-66274-5}, pmid = {32513980}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change significantly affects geographic distribution of plants pests and diseases worldwide. Understanding the influence of future climate change on the suitable areas of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in our country and taking timely countermeasures are crucial for improving the effectiveness of control of pest. Based on the occurrence points of D. citri and the selected environmental variables, the potential suitable areas of this pest under climate change scenarios in China were predicted by using MaxEnt and GIS tools. Our results showed that the higly suitable area were mainly located in Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Southern Zhejiang, Southern Jiangxi, Eastern Hunan, Southwestern Guizhou, and the area was 43.7 × 104 km2. Areas of moderate and low suitability were centered on areas of high suitability and radiate to the North successively, with an area of 59.28 × 104 km2 and 93.46 × 104 km2 respectively. From current to 2070 s, the areas of the highly suitable areas will increase, and the geometric center of the highly and total suitable areas will move to north under three climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid32510407, year = {2020}, author = {Basel, B and Goby, G and Johnson, J}, title = {Community-based adaptation to climate change in villages of Western Province, Solomon Islands.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {156}, number = {}, pages = {111266}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111266}, pmid = {32510407}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {People, local cultures and the environments they live in are complex and dynamic social-ecological systems that have evolved together over time and are continually affected by a myriad of factors, including climate and global changes. Escalating climate and global changes present an imminent threat to Pacific communities, particularly for food security, livelihoods, health and safety, cultural identity and biodiversity conservation. A participatory community-based climate change adaptation planning process was used to engage with communities on Rendova Island in Western Province, Solomon Islands to identify local adaptation priorities. The methodology recognized that local community members are the managers of the resources they use daily, have direct knowledge of the status of key local resources and have direct influence over ongoing resource governance. The study focused on two objectives: (1) identifying community priorities and documenting them in adaptation plans intended for local implementation, and (2) evaluating whether community adaptation priorities addressed key vulnerabilities identified independently using a semi-quantitative vulnerability assessment. The adaptation priorities identified by the communities encompassed: governance, leadership and planning; farming and livestock; sustainable livelihoods; natural resource management; and youth capacity building. The community adaptation priorities were found to address the key climate change vulnerabilities identified in the semi-quantitative assessment and also addressed additional drivers of social vulnerability and adaptive capacity. This finding reiterates the importance of fully inclusive and participatory vulnerability assessments and community-identification of adaptation priorities coupled with scientific climate projections to comprehensively assess the complexity of social-ecological systems. The climate change adaptation priorities have informed ongoing local actions and are intended to be used by communities, government and NGOs to focus local effort, funding and project development. A review of the suitability of the adaptation priorities by similar villages on neighbouring islands would determine the utility of scaling-up and applying these adaptations to other rural communities in the Solomon Islands, and possibly more widely in other Pacific communities.}, }
@article {pmid32509905, year = {2020}, author = {Mazhin, SA and Khankeh, H and Farrokhi, M and Aminizadeh, M and Poursadeqiyan, M}, title = {Migration health crisis associated with climate change: A systematic review.}, journal = {Journal of education and health promotion}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {97}, doi = {10.4103/jehp.jehp_4_20}, pmid = {32509905}, issn = {2277-9531}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The empirical assessment of the health outcomes associated with migration caused by climate change is still unclear. However, health outcomes in the early stages are expected to be similar to the health outcomes associated with refugees. The objective of the present study was a systematic review of the health effects of migration caused by climate change.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: A systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Online databases (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar) were used to identify papers published that evaluated the health effects of migration caused by climate change. The search, article selection, and data extraction were carried out by two researchers independently. All English-language articles on the health effects of migration caused by climate change were included in this study.<br><br>RESULTS: An analysis of the complex ways in which climate change influences populations can be facilitated using a three-class classification: compulsory displacement, resettlement planning, and migration. Subsequent to climate changes, other changes, and environmental deficiencies, compulsory displacement may occur in case of inadequacy of compatibility responses. A part of migration-related health outcomes caused by climate change is from displacement from rural to urban areas, especially in developing countries. There is significant documentation on health and livelihood inequalities between migrant groups and host populations in developed countries.<br><br>CONCLUSION: If climate change continues in its current direction, it is likely that the number of refugees and crises will increase in the coming decades. Although the domain and the extent of health hazards caused by the displacement of the population associated with climate change cannot be clearly predicted, by reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, along with social and environmental adaptation strategies, migration caused by climate change, health risks and its relevant crises can be greatly reduced.}, }
@article {pmid32508427, year = {2020}, author = {Rizvi, A and Chaudhary, R and Haider, M and Naseem, I}, title = {How climate change affects parasites: the case of trematode parasite Clinostomum complanatum and its fish host Trichogaster fasiatus.}, journal = {Journal of parasitic diseases : official organ of the Indian Society for Parasitology}, volume = {44}, number = {2}, pages = {476-480}, doi = {10.1007/s12639-020-01214-8}, pmid = {32508427}, issn = {0971-7196}, abstract = {This study was undertaken to understand the impact of climate change on the ecology of infection of Clinostomum complanatum, a model trematode parasite. We analysed climate change data and data from infected fish over a period of seven years (2007-2013) from the Aligarh region (India) in this retrospective study. We show that infection of the trematode parasite Clinostomum complanatum (Rudolphi, 1814) in the forage fish Trichogaster facsiatus (Bloch &amp; Schneider, 1801) is dependent on surface air temperature amongst the (ecologically) relevant climate change variables for both the parasite and its host. This study is the first to implicate surface air temperature as an environmental variable that may contribute towards parasitism, particularly for parasites with a piscine host. The biological relevance of changing climate on the ecology of this parasite is discussed.}, }
@article {pmid32507491, year = {2020}, author = {Sorensen, CJ and Salas, RN and Rublee, C and Hill, K and Barlett, E and Charlton, P and Dyamond, C and Fockele, C and Harper, R and Barot, S and Calvello-Hynes, E and Hess, J and Lemery, J}, title = {Clinical Implications of Climate Change on US Emergency Medicine: Challenges and Opportunities.}, journal = {Annals of emergency medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.annemergmed.2020.03.010}, pmid = {32507491}, issn = {1097-6760}, abstract = {The adverse influences of climate change are manifesting as health burdens relevant to clinical practice, affecting the very underpinnings of health and stressing the health care system. Emergency medicine is likely to bear a large burden, with its focus on urgent and emergency care, through its role as a safety-net provider for vulnerable populations and as a leader in disaster medicine. Clinically, climate change is affecting emergency medicine practice through the amplification of climate-related disease patterns and epidemiologic shifts for conditions diagnosed and treated in emergency departments (EDs), especially for vulnerable populations. In addition, climate-driven intensification of extreme weather is disrupting health care delivery in EDs and health care systems. Thus, there are significant opportunities for emergency medicine to lead the medical response to climate change through 7 key areas: clinical practice improvements, building resilient EDs and health care systems, adaptation and public health engagement, disaster preparedness, mitigation, research, and education. In the face of this growing health threat, systemwide preparation rooted in local leadership and responsiveness is necessary to efficiently and effectively care for our vulnerable communities.}, }
@article {pmid32503239, year = {2020}, author = {B Yeh, K and M Fair, J and Smith, W and Martinez Torres, T and Lucas, J and Monagin, C and Winegar, R and Fletcher, J}, title = {Assessing Climate Change Impact on Ecosystems and Infectious Disease: Important Roles for Genomic Sequencing and a One Health Perspective.}, journal = {Tropical medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/tropicalmed5020090}, pmid = {32503239}, issn = {2414-6366}, abstract = {Changes in the Earth's climate and weather continue to impact the planet's ecosystems, including the interface of infectious disease agents with their hosts and vectors. Environmental disasters, natural and human-made activities raise risk factors that indirectly facilitate infectious disease outbreaks. Subsequently, changes in habitat, displaced populations, and environmental stresses that affect the survival of species are amplified over time. The recurrence and spread of vector-borne (e.g., mosquito, tick, aphid) human, animal, and plant pathogens to new geographic locations are also influenced by climate change. The distribution and range of humans, agricultural animals and plants, wildlife and native plants, as well as vectors, parasites, and microbes that cause neglected diseases of the tropics as well as other global regions are also impacted. In addition, genomic sequencing can now be applied to detect signatures of infectious pathogens as they move into new regions. Molecular detection assays complement metagenomic sequencing to help us understand the microbial community found within the microbiomes of hosts and vectors, and help us uncover mechanistic relationships between climate variability and pathogen transmission. Our understanding of, and responses to, such complex dynamics and their impacts can be enhanced through effective, multi-sectoral One Health engagement coupled with applications of both traditional and novel technologies. Concerted efforts are needed to further harness and leverage technology that can identify and track these impacts of climate changes in order to mitigate and adapt to their effects.}, }
@article {pmid32502870, year = {2020}, author = {Ashiq, W and Nadeem, M and Ali, W and Zaeem, M and Wu, J and Galagedara, L and Thomas, R and Kavanagh, V and Cheema, M}, title = {Biochar amendment mitigates greenhouse gases emission and global warming potential in dairy manure based silage corn in boreal climate.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {265}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {114869}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2020.114869}, pmid = {32502870}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {About 11% of the global anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions result from agricultural practices. Dairy manure (DM) application to soil is regarded as a best management practice due to C sequestration and improvement of soil physiochemical properties. However, GHGs emissions from the soil following the DM application could offset its advantages. Biochar (BC) is known to affect N transformation and GHGs emissions from soil. There had been considerably less focus on the BC amendment and its effects on GHGs emissions following DM application under field conditions. The objectives of this study were; i) to determine the temporal patterns and cumulative GHGs fluxes following DM and inorganic nitrogen (IN) application and, ii) to investigate BC amendment impact on DMY, GWP, direct N2O emission factor (EFd) and the response of CH4 emissions (RC) in DM based silage corn. To achieve these objectives a two-year field experiment was conducted with these treatments: 1) DM with high N conc. (DM1: 0.37% N); 2) DM with low N conc. (DM2: 0.13% N); 3) IN; 4) DM1+BC; 5) DM2+BC; 6) IN + BC; and 7) Control (N0); and were laid out in randomized complete block design with four replications. BC amendment to DM1, DM2 and IN significantly reduced cumulative CO2 emission by 16, 25.5 and 26.5%, CH4 emission by 184, 200 and 293% and N2O emission by 95, 86 and 93% respectively. It also reduced area-scaled and yield-scaled GWP, EFd, RC and enhanced DMY. Thus, BC application showed great potential to offset the negative effects of DM application i.e GHGs emissions from the silage corn cropping system. Further research is needed to evaluate soil organic carbon and nitrogen dynamics (substrates for GHG emissions) after DM and BC application on various soil types and cropping systems under field conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32501189, year = {2020}, author = {Riddell, E and Sears, MW}, title = {Terrestrial Salamanders Maintain Habitat Suitability under Climate Change despite Trade-Offs between Water Loss and Gas Exchange.}, journal = {Physiological and biochemical zoology : PBZ}, volume = {93}, number = {4}, pages = {310-319}, doi = {10.1086/709558}, pmid = {32501189}, issn = {1537-5293}, abstract = {Physiological acclimation has the potential to improve survival during climate change by reducing sensitivity to warming. However, acclimation can produce trade-offs due to links between related physiological traits. Water loss and gas exchange are intrinsically linked by the need for respiratory surfaces to remain moist. As climates warm and dry, organisms may attempt to lower desiccation risk by limiting water loss but at a cost of inhibiting their ability to breathe. Here we used laboratory experiments to evaluate the trade-off between water loss and gas exchange in a fully terrestrial, lungless salamander (Plethodon metcalfi). We measured acclimation of resistance to water loss and metabolic rates in response to long-term exposure to temperature and humidity treatments. We then integrated the trade-off into a simulation-based species distribution model to determine the consequences of ignoring physiological trade-offs on energy balance and aerobic scope under climate change. In the laboratory, we found a close association between acclimation of resistance to water loss and metabolic rates indicative of a trade-off. After incorporating the trade-off into our simulations, we found that energy balance and aerobic scope were reduced by 49.7% and 34.3%, respectively, under contemporary climates across their geographic range. Under future warming scenarios, incorporating the trade-off lowered the number of sites predicted to experience local extirpation by 52.2% relative to simulations without the trade-off; however, the number of sites capable of supporting the energetic requirements for reproduction declined from 44.6% to 32.6% across the species' geographic range. These experiments and simulations suggest that salamanders can maintain positive energy balance across their geographic range under climate change despite the costs associated with trade-offs between water loss and gas exchange.}, }
@article {pmid32499923, year = {2020}, author = {Kluczkovski, A and Cook, J and Downie, HF and Fletcher, A and McLoughlin, L and Markwick, A and Bridle, SL and Reynolds, CJ and Rivera, XS and Martindale, W and Frankowska, A and Moraes, MM and Birkett, AJ and Summerton, S and Green, R and Fennell, JT and Smith, P and Ingram, J and Langley, I and Yates, L and Ajagun-Brauns, J}, title = {Interacting with Members of the Public to Discuss the Impact of Food Choices on Climate Change-Experiences from Two UK Public Engagement Events.}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {2323}, doi = {10.3390/su12062323}, pmid = {32499923}, issn = {2071-1050}, abstract = {Food systems contribute to up to 37% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and emissions are increasing. Since the emissions vary greatly between different foods, citizens' choices can make a big difference to climate change. Public engagement events are opportunities to communicate these complex issues: to raise awareness about the impact of citizens' own food choices on climate change and to generate support for changes in all food system activities, the food environment and food policy. This article summarises findings from our 'Take a Bite Out of Climate Change' stand at two UK outreach activities during July 2019. We collected engagement information in three main ways: (1) individuals were invited to complete a qualitative evaluation questionnaire comprising of four questions that gauged the person's interests, perceptions of food choices and attitudes towards climate change; (2) an online multiple-choice questionnaire asking about eating habits and awareness/concerns; and (3) a token drop voting activity where visitors answered the question: 'Do you consider greenhouse gases when choosing food?' Our results indicate whether or not people learnt about the environmental impacts of food (effectiveness), how likely they are to move towards a more climate-friendly diet (behavioural change), and how to gather information more effectively at this type of event.}, }
@article {pmid32498206, year = {2020}, author = {Pérez-Martínez, C and Rühland, KM and Smol, JP and Jones, VJ and Conde-Porcuna, JM}, title = {Long-term ecological changes in Mediterranean mountain lakes linked to recent climate change and Saharan dust deposition revealed by diatom analyses.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {727}, number = {}, pages = {138519}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138519}, pmid = {32498206}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change and the recent increase of Saharan dust deposition has had substantial effects on Mediterranean alpine regions. We examined changes in diatom assemblage composition over the past ~180 years from high-resolution, dated sediment cores retrieved from six remote lakes in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Southern Spain. In all lakes, changes in diatom composition began over a century ago, but were more pronounced after ~1970 CE, concurrent with trends in rising regional air temperature, declining precipitation, and increased Saharan dust deposition. Temperature was identified as the main predictor of diatom assemblage changes, whereas both Saharan dust deposition drivers, the Sahel precipitation index and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation, were secondary explanatory variables. Diatom compositional shifts are indicative of lake alkalinization (linked to heightened evapoconcentration and an increase in calcium-rich Saharan dust input) and reduced lake water turbulence (linked to lower water levels and reduced inflows to the lakes). Moreover, decreases in epiphytic diatom species were indicative of increasing aridity and the drying of catchment meadows. Our results support the conclusions of previous chlorophyll-a and cladoceran-based paleolimnological analyses of these same dated sedimentary records which show a regional-scale response to climate change and Saharan dust deposition in Sierra Nevada lakes and their catchments during the 20th century. However, diatom assemblages seem to respond to different atmospheric and climate-related effects than cladoceran assemblages and chlorophyll-a concentrations. The recent impact of climate change and atmospheric Saharan deposition on lake biota assemblages and water chemistry, as well as catchment water availability, will have important implications for the valuable ecosystem services that the Sierra Nevada provides.}, }
@article {pmid32498159, year = {2020}, author = {Gouvêa, LP and Assis, J and Gurgel, CFD and Serrão, EA and Silveira, TCL and Santos, R and Duarte, CM and Peres, LMC and Carvalho, VF and Batista, M and Bastos, E and Sissini, MN and Horta, PA}, title = {Golden carbon of Sargassum forests revealed as an opportunity for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {729}, number = {}, pages = {138745}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138745}, pmid = {32498159}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Marine climate change mitigation initiatives have recently attracted a great deal of interest in the role of natural carbon sinks, particularly on coastal systems. Brown seaweeds of the genus Sargassum are the largest canopy-forming algae in tropical and subtropical environments, with a wide global distribution on rocky reefs and as floating stands. Because these algae present high amounts of biomass, we suggest their contribution is relevant for global carbon stocks and consequently for mitigating climate change as CO2 remover. We modelled global distributions and quantified carbon stocks as above-ground biomass (AGB) with machine learning algorithms and climate data. Sargassum AGB totaled 13.1 Pg C at the global scale, which is a significant amount of carbon, comparable to other key marine ecosystems, such as mangrove forests, salt marshes and seagrass meadows. However, specific techniques related to bloom production and management, or the utilization of biomass for biomaterials, should be fostered.}, }
@article {pmid32494906, year = {2020}, author = {Papa, C and Nzokou, P and Mbow, C}, title = {Farmer Livelihood Strategies and Attitudes in Response to Climate Change in Agroforestry Systems in Kedougou, Senegal.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01302-8}, pmid = {32494906}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {A1102.2//US Borlaug Fellows in Global Food Security/ ; }, abstract = {Farmers managing agroecological systems across sub-humid West Africa face a variety of challenges in meeting their needs. In the face of adverse conditions, farmers have successfully managed agroforestry parklands to create an ecological equilibrium. However, climate change presents a challenging and new disturbance to farmer livelihood strategies. Using a qualitative approach and a rural livelihood framework, we analyzed and assessed farmer livelihood strategies, attitudes, and responses to climate change. Results showed that farmers are constantly changing management strategies through flexible and adaptable decision-making to mitigate negative disturbances, but climate change as a primary driver to change cannot be distinguished from other normal challenges that farmers face inter- and intra-annually. Through the accumulation of knowledge and adaptive management, farmers in Kedougou derive a variety of livelihood strategies to reduce risk in the face of uncertainty and variable climatic conditions. Furthermore, farmers used trees on farms to derive a multitude of ecosystem services provided not only provisioning services such as fuel, food, and fiber, but increased biodiversity, nutrient cycling, and climate regulation. Additional research is still needed to understand to what extent the inclusion of trees on farms affect various biophysical properties as well as rationale behind species choice.}, }
@article {pmid32494569, year = {2020}, author = {Palit, P and Kudapa, H and Zougmore, R and Kholova, J and Whitbread, A and Sharma, M and Varshney, RK}, title = {An integrated research framework combining genomics, systems biology, physiology, modelling and breeding for legume improvement in response to elevated CO2 under climate change scenario.}, journal = {Current plant biology}, volume = {22}, number = {}, pages = {100149}, doi = {10.1016/j.cpb.2020.100149}, pmid = {32494569}, issn = {2214-6628}, abstract = {How unprecedented changes in climatic conditions will impact yield and productivity of some crops and their response to existing stresses, abiotic and biotic interactions is a key global concern. Climate change can also alter natural species' abundance and distribution or favor invasive species, which in turn can modify ecosystem dynamics and the provisioning of ecosystem services. Basic anatomical differences in C3 and C4 plants lead to their varied responses to climate variations. In plants having a C3 pathway of photosynthesis, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) positively regulates photosynthetic carbon (C) assimilation and depresses photorespiration. Legumes being C3 plants, they may be in a favorable position to increase biomass and yield through various strategies. This paper comprehensively presents recent progress made in the physiological and molecular attributes in plants with special emphasis on legumes under elevated CO2 conditions in a climate change scenario. A strategic research framework for future action integrating genomics, systems biology, physiology and crop modelling approaches to cope with changing climate is also discussed. Advances in sequencing and phenotyping methodologies make it possible to use vast genetic and genomic resources by deploying high resolution phenotyping coupled with high throughput multi-omics approaches for trait improvement. Integrated crop modelling studies focusing on farming systems design and management, prediction of climate impacts and disease forecasting may also help in planning adaptation. Hence, an integrated research framework combining genomics, plant molecular physiology, crop breeding, systems biology and integrated crop-soil-climate modelling will be very effective to cope with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32494031, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, S and Dai, J and Ge, Q}, title = {Responses of Autumn Phenology to Climate Change and the Correlations of Plant Hormone Regulation.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {9039}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-65704-8}, pmid = {32494031}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Current understanding of autumn phenological responses to climate change in deciduous tree species remains limited, mainly due to the difficulties in defining autumn events and the lack of knowledge about its mechanism. Here we applied a method based on measuring chlorophyll A (Chla) content in leaf tissue during the entire autumn senescence processes to appropriately quantify autumn phenological processes. Beginning of leaf coloring could be defined as when about 50% of the Chl was lost. End of leaf coloring could be defined as when about 95% of the Chl was lost. Then the mechanism behind the timing of autumn senescence responses to climate change through hormone regulation was studied for the first time. Four dominate deciduous tree species with representative senescence type (Salix babylonica, Ginkgo biloba, Acer mono, Cotinus coggygria) were chosen as the subject of study. Variations in climate factors (temperature, day length, precipitation, humidity) were recorded and nine major endogenous hormones (IAA, IPA, ZR, DHZR, GA3, GA4, ABA, MeJA, BR) in leaf tissues were monitored during the entire autumn senescence processes. The experimental results verified temperature and day length are the major climate factors affecting autumn phenology. Low temperature and short day length could result in the decrease of ZR level and the increase of ABA level in leaf tissue, which directly trigger/promote senescence. Meanwhile, low temperature and short day length could cause the decrease of MeJA level and the increase of GA3 and GA4 level, which regulate the timing of autumn senescence indirectly through ZR, ABA, and IAA. Our study improves the understanding of autumn phenological response to climate change in deciduous trees.}, }
@article {pmid32492591, year = {2020}, author = {Chen, H and Rücker, AM and Su, Q and Blosser, GD and Liu, X and Conner, WH and Chow, AT}, title = {Dynamics of dissolved organic matter and disinfection byproduct precursors along a low elevation gradient in woody wetlands - an implication of hydrologic impacts of climate change on source water quality.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {181}, number = {}, pages = {115908}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2020.115908}, pmid = {32492591}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {Foliar litter is an important terrestrial source of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in the source water supply. Climate changes could alter precipitation patterns and hydroperiods in woody wetlands, resulting in a hydrologic shift along the low elevation gradient and change the productions of DOC and DBP precursors and their exports to source water. Here, we conducted an 80-week field decomposition study using fresh-fallen leaves along an elevation gradient, representing well-drained, relatively moist, and inundated environments, in Congaree National Park, South Carolina. The dissolved organic carbon (DOC) yield and formation potential (FP) of trihalomethanes (THMs; a dominant category of studied DBPs) were 48.9-79.7 mg-DOC/g-litter and 2.23-6.57 mg/g-litter in the freshly fallen leaf litter, respectively. The level of leachable DOM and its DBP FP decreased with time, and during the first 16 weeks of decomposition, the decomposing litter served as an important source of leachable DOM and DBP precursors. Week 28 was a turning point for DOM optical properties, with fewer tyrosine/tryptophan/soluble microbial byproduct-like compounds and more aromatic, humified, and fulvic/humic acid-like compounds. Litterfall primarily occurred from September to January, while less precipitation occurred from October to January, indicating that large amounts of DOC and DBP precursors could be leached from litterfall in February. In the first 16 weeks of field exposure study, we observed higher residual mass and lower water-extractable DOC and DTN in more inundated environments, demonstrating that the shifts of DOM composition and DBP precursors if climate reduces rainfall in the southeastern US.}, }
@article {pmid32489602, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, Y and Meng, Q and Wang, Y and Zhang, X and Wang, W}, title = {Climate change-induced migration patterns and extinction risks of Theaceae species in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {4352-4361}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.6202}, pmid = {32489602}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Theaceae, an economically important angiosperm family, is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical forests in Asia. In China, Theaceae has particularly high abundances and endemism, comprising ~75% of the total genera and ~46% of the total species worldwide. Therefore, predicting the response of Theaceae species to climate change is vital. In this study, we collected distribution data for 200 wild Theaceae species in China, and predicted their distribution patterns under current and future climactic conditions by species distribution modeling (SDM). We revealed that Theaceae species richness is highest in southeastern China and on Hainan Island, reaching its highest value (137 species) in Fujian Province. According to the IUCN Red List criteria for assessing species threat levels under two dispersal assumptions (no dispersal and full dispersal), we evaluated the conservation status of all Theaceae species by calculating loss of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We predicted that nine additional species will become threatened due to climate change in the future; one species will be classified as critically endangered (CR), two as endangered (EN), and six as vulnerable (VU). Given their extinction risks associated with climate change, we recommended that these species be added to the Red List. Our investigation of migration patterns revealed regional differences in the number of emigrant, immigrant, and persistent species, indicating the need for targeted conservation strategies. Regions containing numerous emigrants are concentrated in Northern Taiwan and coastal regions of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, while regions containing numerous immigrants include central Sichuan Province, the southeastern Tibet Autonomous Region, southwest Yunnan Province, northwest Sichuan Province, and the junction of Guangxi and Hunan provinces. Lastly, regions containing persistent species are widely distributed in southern China. Importantly, regions with high species turnover are located on the northern border of the entire Theaceae species distribution ranges owing to upwards migration; these regions are considered most sensitive to climate change and conservation planning should therefore be prioritized here. This study will contribute valuable information for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on Theaceae species, which will ultimately improve biodiversity conservation efficiency.}, }
@article {pmid32488356, year = {2020}, author = {Azhdari, Z and Rafeie Sardooi, E and Bazrafshan, O and Zamani, H and Singh, VP and Mohseni Saravi, M and Ramezani, M}, title = {Impact of climate change on net primary production (NPP) in south Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {6}, pages = {409}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08389-w}, pmid = {32488356}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {Climate change is a natural hazard which threatens the sustainable development of human health, food security, economic well-being, and natural resources. It also affects photosynthesis, plant respiration, and decomposition of organic matter that contribute to atmospheric carbon flow. The net primary production (NPP) is one of the main components of carbon balance. This study investigated the impact of climatic change on the net production in the Hormozgan county in south Iran. To obtain NPP, MODIS NPP product (MOD17A3) was used and future temperature and precipitation values were obtained using the HadGEM2-ES model under the RCP4.5 scenario. These values were downscaled using the LARSWG 6 statistical model, and precipitation and temperature were simulated for the RCP4.5 scenario. For further analysis, NPP was simulated based on the BIOME-BGC model and compared with the NPP data obtained from the MODIS images. Comparison of the climatic parameters of the basic (2001-2015) and future (2016-2030) periods indicated an increase in precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature of the study area and subsequently an increase in the NPP value in all biomes (averagely 17.73%) in the future. The highest NPP values were observed in the central and western parts of the region in biomes 4 (mangrove forest cover), 10 (broadleaf forest vegetation), and 6, 5, and 1 (rangeland vegetation), respectively, and the lowest values were observed in the eastern parts. Results showed that the increase in future NPP could be due to the increase in precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid32488006, year = {2020}, author = {Seersholm, FV and Werndly, DJ and Grealy, A and Johnson, T and Keenan Early, EM and Lundelius, EL and Winsborough, B and Farr, GE and Toomey, R and Hansen, AJ and Shapiro, B and Waters, MR and McDonald, G and Linderholm, A and Stafford, TW and Bunce, M}, title = {Rapid range shifts and megafaunal extinctions associated with late Pleistocene climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2770}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-16502-3}, pmid = {32488006}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Large-scale changes in global climate at the end of the Pleistocene significantly impacted ecosystems across North America. However, the pace and scale of biotic turnover in response to both the Younger Dryas cold period and subsequent Holocene rapid warming have been challenging to assess because of the scarcity of well dated fossil and pollen records that covers this period. Here we present an ancient DNA record from Hall's Cave, Texas, that documents 100 vertebrate and 45 plant taxa from bulk fossils and sediment. We show that local plant and animal diversity dropped markedly during Younger Dryas cooling, but while plant diversity recovered in the early Holocene, animal diversity did not. Instead, five extant and nine extinct large bodied animals disappeared from the region at the end of the Pleistocene. Our findings suggest that climate change affected the local ecosystem in Texas over the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary, but climate change on its own may not explain the disappearance of the megafauna at the end of the Pleistocene.}, }
@article {pmid32487279, year = {2020}, author = {Mörchen, M and Ocasiones, E and Relator, R and Lewis, D}, title = {Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Disability: Do We &quot;Leave No One Behind&quot;?.}, journal = {Disaster medicine and public health preparedness}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1017/dmp.2020.79}, pmid = {32487279}, issn = {1938-744X}, }
@article {pmid32485868, year = {2020}, author = {Azarkamand, S and Wooldridge, C and Darbra, RM}, title = {Review of Initiatives and Methodologies to Reduce CO2 Emissions and Climate Change Effects in Ports.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph17113858}, pmid = {32485868}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Ports are important infrastructures for economic growth and development. Among the most significant environmental aspects of ports that contribute to the issue of climate change are those due to carbon dioxide emissions generated by port activities. Given the importance of this topic, this paper gathers initiatives and methodologies that have been undertaken to calculate and reduce CO2 emissions and climate change effects in ports. After studying these methodologies, their strengths and opportunities for further enhancement have been analyzed. The results show that, in recent years, several ports have started to calculate their carbon footprint and report it. However, in some of the cases, not all the sources of GHG gases that are occurring actually in ports are taken into account, such as emissions from waste treatment operations and employees' commuting. On other occasions, scopes are not defined following standard guidelines. Furthermore, each authority or operator uses its own method to calculate CO2 emissions, which makes the comparison of results difficult. For these reasons, this paper suggests the need for creating a standardized tool to calculate carbon footprint in ports, which will make it possible to establish a benchmark and a potential comparison of results among ports.}, }
@article {pmid32481100, year = {2013}, author = {Sherwin, GL and George, L and Kannangara, K and Tissue, DT and Ghannoum, O}, title = {Impact of industrial-age climate change on the relationship between water uptake and tissue nitrogen in eucalypt seedlings.}, journal = {Functional plant biology : FPB}, volume = {40}, number = {2}, pages = {201-212}, doi = {10.1071/FP12130}, pmid = {32481100}, issn = {1445-4416}, abstract = {This study explored reductions in tissue nitrogen concentration ([N]) at elevated CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), and changes in plant water and N uptake. Eucalyptus saligna Sm. seedlings were grown under three [CO2] levels (preindustrial (280μLL-1), current (400μLL-1) or projected (640μLL-1)) and two air temperatures (current, (current+4°C)). Gravimetric water use, leaf gas exchange and tissue dry mass and %N were determined. Solid-state 15N-NMR spectroscopy was used for determining the partitioning of N chemical groups in the dry matter fractions. Water use efficiency (WUE) improved with increasing [CO2] at ambient temperature, but strong leaf area and weak reductions in transpiration rates led to greater water use at elevated [CO2]. High temperature increased plant water use, such that WUE was not significantly stimulated by increasing [CO2] at high temperature. Total N uptake increased with increasing [CO2] but not temperature, less than the increase recorded for plant biomass. Tissue [N] decreased with rising [CO2] and at high temperature, but N use efficiency increased with rising [CO2]. Total N uptake was positively correlated with total water use and root biomass under all treatments. Growth [CO2] and temperature did not affect the partitioning of 15N among the N chemical groups. The reductions of tissue [N] with [CO2] and temperature were generic, not specific to particular N compounds. The results suggest that reductions in tissue [N] are caused by changes in root N uptake by mass flow due to altered transpiration rates at elevated [CO2] and temperature.}, }
@article {pmid32485751, year = {2020}, author = {Looks, P and Borchers, P and Reinfried, F and Oertel, H and Kugler, J}, title = {[Environmental Justice: Subjective Heat Exposure as a Result of Climate Change in Contrasting Urban Neighborhoods].}, journal = {Gesundheitswesen (Bundesverband der Arzte des Offentlichen Gesundheitsdienstes (Germany))}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1055/a-1138-0355}, pmid = {32485751}, issn = {1439-4421}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The City of Dresden has no data on the perception of climate change and the associated increase in the average temperature during summer times yet. The data are needed to develop targeted action for vulnerable groups.<br><br>METHOD: To close this gap, a representative survey of the population was carried out in Dresden in 2017. Two urban districts, which differ from one another both in terms of urban planning and social structure, were compared, in particular, regarding the question of whether there was a fair distribution or procedural justice concerning the effects of subjective heat burden and influencing factors.<br><br>RESULTS: The results showed that especially inhabitants of the urban area with predominantly prefabricated buildings, less green space and an increased proportion of socially disadvantaged felt more exposed to the summer heat and had fewer opportunities to adapt to the high temperature.<br><br>CONCLUSION: In addition to urban development measures, the results can be used to derive measures for the prevention of heat-related illnesses. These require, for example, increased advice and health education locally to reach people.}, }
@article {pmid32485590, year = {2020}, author = {Gibson, KE and Barnett, J and Haslam, N and Kaplan, I}, title = {The mental health impacts of climate change: Findings from a Pacific Island atoll nation.}, journal = {Journal of anxiety disorders}, volume = {73}, number = {}, pages = {102237}, doi = {10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102237}, pmid = {32485590}, issn = {1873-7897}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is anticipated to have profound effects on mental health, particularly among populations that are simultaneously ecologically and economically vulnerable to its impacts. Various pathways through which climate change can impact mental health have been theorised, but the impacts themselves remain understudied.<br><br>PURPOSE: In this article we applied psychological methods to examine if climate change is affecting individuals' mental health in the Small Island Developing State of Tuvalu, a Pacific Island nation regarded as exceptionally vulnerable to climate change. We determined the presence of psychological distress and associated impairment attributed to two categories of climate change-related stressors in particular: 1) local environmental impacts caused or exacerbated by climate change, and 2) hearing about global climate change and contemplating its future implications.<br><br>METHODS: The findings draw on data collected in a mixed-method study involving 100 Tuvaluan participants. Data were collected via face-to-face structured interviews that lasted 45 min on average and were subjected to descriptive, correlational, and between-group analyses.<br><br>RESULTS: The findings revealed participants' experiences of distress in relation to both types of stressor, and demonstrated that a high proportion of participants are experiencing psychological distress at levels that reportedly cause them impairment in one or more areas of daily life.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The findings lend weight to the claim that climate change represents a risk to mental health and obliges decision-makers to consider these risks when conceptualizing climate-related harms or tallying the costs of inaction.}, }
@article {pmid32485463, year = {2020}, author = {Ahmed, M}, title = {Introduction to Modern Climate Change. Andrew E. Dessler: Cambridge University Press, 2011, 252 pp, ISBN-10: 0521173159.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {734}, number = {}, pages = {139397}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139397}, pmid = {32485463}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is the variability of the climate system that includes the atmosphere, the biogeochemical cycles (Carbon cycle, Nitrogen cycle and Hydrological cycle), the land surface, ice and the biotic and abiotic components of the planet earth. Significant impact of climate change is seen in the form of rise in temperature called as global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are the primary greenhouse gases (GHGs) mainly responsible for the global warming and climate change. These GHGs have drawn lot of attention due to their significant role in the global warming potential. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested to stop global warming at 1.5oC above preindustrial levels as warming beyond this level might lead to heat extremes, alter insect and plant phenology (Phenological shifts) and more occurrence of vector borne diseases. Climate change is the topic of interest in all fields of life starting from social science and going to the applied science. Global climate cycles and world food production systems are under threat due to the recent climate extreme events. These events include heat waves and change in the rainfall patterns. Thus, risk reduction intervention in the form of mitigation and adaptation is required to minimize the impacts of climate change. Mitigation option includes understanding the present and future components of the climate system and interaction among them through coupled modeling system i.e. Global Circulation Model (GCM). Finally, global issue of climate change could be addressed by taking worldwide cooperation and action and adopting sustainable measures like use of alternative energy sources. The visible benefit on recovery of climate has been seen recently through global lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.}, }
@article {pmid32485455, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, P and Dong, X and Grenouillet, G and Lek, S and Zheng, Y and Chang, J}, title = {Species range shifts in response to climate change and human pressure for the world's largest amphibian.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {735}, number = {}, pages = {139543}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139543}, pmid = {32485455}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Chinese giant salamander, Andrias davidianus, the world's largest amphibian, is critically endangered and has an extremely unique evolutionary history. Therefore, this species represents a global conservation priority and will be impacted by future climate and human pressures. Understanding the range and response to environmental change of this species is a priority for the identification of targeted conservation activities. We projected future range shifts of the Chinese giant salamander under the independent and combined impacts of climate change and human population density (HPD) variations by using ensemble species distribution models. We further evaluated the sustainability of existing nature reserves and identified priority areas for the mitigation or prevention of such pressures. Both climate change and increasing HPD tended to reduce the species range, with the latter leading to greater range losses and fragmentation of the range. Notably, 65.6%, 18.0% and 18.4% of the range loss were attributed solely to HPD change, solely to climate change and to their overlapping impacts, respectively. Overall, the average total and net losses of the species range were 52.5% and 23.4%, respectively, and HPD and climate changes were responsible for 71.4% and 28.6% of the net losses, respectively. We investigated the stability of the remaining species range and found that half of the nature reserves are likely vulnerable, with 57.1% and 66.7% of them likely to lose their conservation value in 2050 and 2070, respectively. To effectively protect this salamander, conservation policies should address both pressures simultaneously, especially considering the negative impact of human pressures in both contemporary periods and the near future. The species range shifts over space and time projected by this research could help guide long-term surveys and the sustainable conservation of wild habitats and populations of this ancient and endangered amphibian.}, }
@article {pmid32485454, year = {2020}, author = {Nascimbene, J and Benesperi, R and Casazza, G and Chiarucci, A and Giordani, P}, title = {Range shifts of native and invasive trees exacerbate the impact of climate change on epiphyte distribution: The case of lung lichen and black locust in Italy.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {735}, number = {}, pages = {139537}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139537}, pmid = {32485454}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {While changing climatic conditions may directly impact species distribution ranges, indirect effects related to altered biotic interactions may exacerbate range shifts. This situation fully applies to epiphytic lichens that are sensitive to climatic factors and strongly depend on substrate occurrence and features for their dispersal and establishment. In this work, we modelled the climatic suitability across Italy under current and future climate of the forest species Lobaria pulmonaria, the lung lichen. Comparatively, we modelled the suitability of its main tree species in Italy, as well as that of the alien tree Robinia pseudoacacia, black locust, whose spread may cause the decline of many forest lichen species. Our results support the view that climate change may cause range shifts of epiphytes by altering the spatial pattern of their climatic suitability (direct effect) and simultaneously causing range shifts of their host-tree species (indirect effect). This phenomenon seems to be emphasized by the invasion of alien trees, as in the case of black locust, that may replace native host tree species. Results indicate that a reduction of the habitat suitability of the lung lichen across Italy should be expected in the face of climate change and that this is coupled with a loss of suitable substrate. This situation seems to be determined by two main processes that act simultaneously: 1) a partial reduction of the spatial overlap between the climatic niche of the lung lichen and that of its host tree species, and 2) the invasion of native woods by black locust. The case of lung lichen and black locust in Italy highlights that epiphytes are prone to both direct and indirect effects of climate change. The invasion of alien trees may have consequences that are still poorly evaluated for epiphytes.}, }
@article {pmid32485369, year = {2020}, author = {Rocha, J and Carvalho-Santos, C and Diogo, P and Beça, P and Keizer, JJ and Nunes, JP}, title = {Impacts of climate change on reservoir water availability, quality and irrigation needs in a water scarce Mediterranean region (southern Portugal).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {736}, number = {}, pages = {139477}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139477}, pmid = {32485369}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Future climate for the Mediterranean climatic region is expected to bring an increase in temperatures, decrease in the precipitation quantity and shifts in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Although the impacts of climate change on water resources have been relatively well explored for the Mediterranean climatic region, the specific consequences for reservoirs and, in particular, water availability and irrigation issues have been less studied. The objective of this work is two-fold: (i) to assess the impacts of future climate changes on water resources availability, quality (focusing on phosphorus loads as this is the limiting nutrient for eutrophication) and irrigation needs for two multipurpose reservoirs in southern Portugal; (ii) to suggest climate change adaptation strategies, especially for the agricultural sector. To this end, the SWAT model was first calibrated against existing data on reservoir inflows as well as phosphorus loads. Then, SWAT was run with climate derived EURO-CORDEX models (RCA4/RACMO22E) for four periods (1970-2000, 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100). Water availability was analysed using the Water Exploitation Index (WEI) that was calculated for both reservoirs combining changes of inflows and irrigation requirements. The results indicated that climate change will negatively impact water availability in both reservoirs, especially under RCP8.5. In the case of the Monte Novo reservoir, future domestic water supply could be constrained by water quality problems related with phosphorus loads. For Vigia reservoir, the high water exploitation will lead to water scarcity problems, mainly as this reservoir on present-day conditions is restrictive on irrigation requirements. Adaptation strategies such as the implementation of high end technology (e.g. soil moisture and plant water stress probes, satellite imagery and drones to evaluate water stress - NDVI) as well as the renewal of the irrigation network and adequate crop selection can help attenuating the effects of climate change on the water resources in this region.}, }
@article {pmid32483816, year = {2020}, author = {Paltseva, AA and Neaman, A}, title = {An Emerging Frontier: Metal(loid) Soil Pollution Threat under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/etc.4790}, pmid = {32483816}, issn = {1552-8618}, abstract = {The impact of climate change (global warming) and associated extreme events on soil pollution and metal mobility in soils have received very little attention. Global warming leads to increased soil and atmospheric temperatures, more frequent and severe extreme events, and, consequently, soil erosion. Changes in soil characteristics and hydrology alter how metal(loid)s are transported around a terrestrial environment, diluted in water bodies, and mobilized in soil. Past studies show increases in blood lead concentrations during droughty periods when soil is dry and dusty and decreases in blood lead concentrations during rainy periods when soil is wet and dust is settled. Droughts lead to reduced soil microbial survival, colonization, diversity, and function. When plants are stunted under drought conditions, concentrations of trace metals can be elevated in the tissues to potentially contaminated agricultural produce or enhanced metal uptake by plants. Increased evapotranspiration rates could also lead to translocation of metals from deeper soil layers to the rhizosphere being more readily available for plant uptake. Crop metal concentrations increase when soil temperatures are higher. Even though there an increasing number of articles published on the topics of global warming/climate change and soil metal pollution, it is still not clear what will happen to metals with accelerated evapotranspiration, more rapid organic matter breakdown in soil, faster release from soil particles and diffusion to roots, etc. Thus, the effects of climate change on soil pollution by metals, i.e. their concentrations, mobility, and distribution, require immediate attention to prevent future human and ecosystem damage. We encourage studies that explicitly relate the effects of temperature on metal behavior in soils due to global warming/climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid32483233, year = {2020}, author = {Johansson, F and Orizaola, G and Nilsson-Örtman, V}, title = {Temperate insects with narrow seasonal activity periods can be as vulnerable to climate change as tropical insect species.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {8822}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-65608-7}, pmid = {32483233}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The magnitude and ecological impact of climate change varies with latitude. Several recent models have shown that tropical ectotherms face the greatest risk from warming because they currently experience temperatures much closer to their physiological optimum than temperate taxa. Even a small increase in temperature may thus result in steep fitness declines in tropical species but increased fitness in temperate species. This prediction, however, is based on a model that does not account for latitudinal differences in activity periods. Temperate species in particular may often experience considerably higher temperatures than expected during the active season. Here, we integrate data on insect warming tolerance and temperature-dependent development to re-evaluate latitudinal trends in thermal safety margins after accounting for latitudinal trends in insect seasonal activity. Our analyses suggest that temperate and tropical species differ far less in thermal safety margins than commonly assumed, and add to the recent number of studies suggesting that tropical and temperate species might face similar levels of threat from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32481503, year = {2020}, author = {Timmusk, S and Nevo, E and Ayele, F and Noe, S and Niinemets, Y}, title = {Fighting Fusarium Pathogens in the Era of Climate Change: A Conceptual Approach.}, journal = {Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/pathogens9060419}, pmid = {32481503}, issn = {2076-0817}, support = {2017-5224//Vetenskapsrådet/ ; }, abstract = {Fusarium head blight (FHB) caused by Fusarium pathogens is one of the most devastating fungal diseases of small grain cereals worldwide, substantially reducing yield quality and food safety. Its severity is increasing due to the climate change caused by weather fluctuations. Intensive research on FHB control methods has been initiated more than a decade ago. Since then, the environment has been rapidly changing at regional to global scales due to increasing anthropogenic emissions enhanced fertilizer application and substantial changes in land use. It is known that environmental factors affect both the pathogen virulence as well as plant resistance mechanisms. Changes in CO2 concentration, temperature, and water availability can have positive, neutral, or negative effects on pathogen spread depending on the environmental optima of the pathosystem. Hence, there is a need for studies of plant-pathogen interactions in current and future environmental context. Long-term monitoring data are needed in order to understand the complex nature of plants and its microbiome interactions. We suggest an holobiotic approach, integrating plant phyllosphere microbiome research on the ecological background. This will enable the development of efficient strategies based on ecological know-how to fight Fusarium pathogens and maintain sustainable agricultural systems.}, }
@article {pmid32480230, year = {2020}, author = {Ahmed, M}, title = {Introduction to Modern Climate Change. Andrew E. Dessler: Cambridge University Press, 2011, 252 pp, ISBN-10: 0521173159.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {734}, number = {}, pages = {139397}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139397}, pmid = {32480230}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is the variability of the climate system that includes the atmosphere, the biogeochemical cycles (Carbon cycle, Nitrogen cycle and Hydrological cycle), the land surface, ice and the biotic and abiotic components of the planet earth. Significant impact of climate change is seen in the form of rise in temperature called as global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are the primary greenhouse gases (GHGs) mainly responsible for the global warming and climate change. These GHGs have drawn lot of attention due to their significant role in the global warming potential. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested to stop global warming at 1.5oC above preindustrial levels as warming beyond this level might lead to heat extremes, alter insect and plant phenology (Phenological shifts) and more occurrence of vector borne diseases. Climate change is the topic of interest in all fields of life starting from social science and going to the applied science. Global climate cycles and world food production systems are under threat due to the recent climate extreme events. These events include heat waves and change in the rainfall patterns. Thus, risk reduction intervention in the form of mitigation and adaptation is required to minimize the impacts of climate change. Mitigation option includes understanding the present and future components of the climate system and interaction among them through coupled modeling system i.e. Global Circulation Model (GCM). Finally, global issue of climate change could be addressed by taking worldwide cooperation and action and adopting sustainable measures like use of alternative energy sources. The visible benefit on recovery of climate has been seen recently through global lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.}, }
@article {pmid32479675, year = {2020}, author = {Astigarraga, J and Andivia, E and Zavala, MA and Gazol, A and Cruz-Alonso, V and Vicente-Serrano, SM and Ruiz-Benito, P}, title = {Evidence of non-stationary relationships between climate and forest responses: increased sensitivity to climate change in Iberian forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15198}, pmid = {32479675}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate and forest structure are considered major drivers of forest demography and productivity. However, recent evidence suggests that the relationships between climate and tree growth are generally non-stationary (i.e., non-time-stable), and it remains uncertain whether the relationships between climate, forest structure, demography and productivity are stationary or are being altered by recent climatic and structural changes. Here, we analysed three surveys from the Spanish Forest Inventory (SFI) covering c. 30 years of information and we applied mixed and structural equation models to assess temporal trends in forest structure (stand density, basal area, tree size and tree size inequality), forest demography (ingrowth, growth and mortality) and aboveground forest productivity. We also quantified whether the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography and aboveground forest productivity were stationary over two consecutive time periods. Since the 1980s, density, basal area and tree size increased in Iberian forests, and tree size inequality decreased. In addition, we observed reductions in ingrowth and growth, and increases in mortality. Initial forest structure and water availability mainly modulated the temporal trends in forest structure and demography. The magnitude and direction of the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography changed over the two time periods analysed indicating non-stationary relationships between climate, forest structure and demography. Aboveground forest productivity increased due to a positive balance between ingrowth, growth and mortality. Despite increasing productivity over time, we observed an aggravation of the negative effects of climate change and increased competition on forest demography, reducing ingrowth and growth, and increasing mortality. Interestingly, our results suggest that the negative effects of climate change on forest demography could be ameliorated through forest management, which has profound implications for forest adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32477890, year = {2020}, author = {Ros, AV and LaRocque, R and Fortinsky, R and Nicholas, P}, title = {Addressing Climate Change Communication: Effective Engagement of Populations for Climate Action in the US and Globally.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {86}, number = {1}, pages = {54}, doi = {10.5334/aogh.2900}, pmid = {32477890}, issn = {2214-9996}, abstract = {Background: Communication about climate change is critical in addressing the greatest public health challenge of our time. Public health professionals must convey the human implications of climate change and educating populations regarding climate change as a threat to the health and wellbeing of people globally. Effective communication to engage individuals, communities, and populations is critical to debate as we focus on the most urgent public health problem of our time.<br><br>Objective: Public health professionals are aware of the deleterious health consequences related to climate change; however, key segments of the population are not. This paper addressed key concepts related to climate change communication.<br><br>Methods: Databases were searched including PubMed, CINAHL, and Scopus from 2015 to 2020 to obtain the most recent relevant literature using search terms that included climate change, climate communication, climate action, and climate change engagement.<br><br>Findings: Climate change communication as viewed through the lens of Six Americas-a national survey that categorized people regarding their beliefs about climate change from those who are Dismissive, Doubtful, Disengaged, Cautious, Concerned, or Alarmed is a valid perspective for engaging populations in climate communication and climate action.<br><br>Conclusions: Using the framework developed by the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication and the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, we suggest that adopting this framework from a US perspective to a global perspective and surveying across countries and context is imperative to advance global understanding of the impact of climate change on health.}, }
@article {pmid32477395, year = {2020}, author = {Frioni, T and Bertoloni, G and Squeri, C and Garavani, A and Ronney, L and Poni, S and Gatti, M}, title = {Biodiversity of Local Vitis vinifera L. Germplasm: A Powerful Tool Toward Adaptation to Global Warming and Desired Grape Composition.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {608}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00608}, pmid = {32477395}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Global warming is endangering maintenance of optimal grape composition in white varietals aimed at sparkling wine making due to difficulties to maintain adequate acidity and fresh aromas. These troubles are being faced by the main white varietal of the Colli Piacentini district, named Ortrugo. Its vegetative and reproductive behavior was compared over 3 years with that of other minor autochthonous white varietals. Criteria set for adequate grape composition under sparkling vinification (total soluble solids at 20-21°Brix) and titratable acidity (TA) ≥ 6.5 g/L combined with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on the measured variables allowed a thinnning down of the initial group of 17 to 7 varietals including Ortrugo, Bucalò, Barbesino, Lecco, Melara, Santa Maria and Molinelli. PCA isolated Ortrugo's behavior for inadequacy to maintain sufficient TA at harvest mostly due to extremely low malic acid concentration. However, time trend analyses of accumulation and degradation patterns of tartaric and malic acids disclosed that, in Ortrugo, the most limiting factors were more intense post-veraison tartaric acid dilution and a lower malic acid pool at veraison as compared to any other varietal. Conversely, Molinelli and Barbesino proved to be ideal material for sparkling wine purposes, as they associated to desirable agronomic features a strong ability to retain high TA with a well-balanced tartrate-to-malate ratio. Our study emphasizes that often neglected or superficially evaluated germplasm genetic resources might hide strong potential for adapting to challenges imposed by climate change in that representing an excellent tool for adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32474785, year = {2020}, author = {Ahmad, D and Afzal, M}, title = {Climate change adaptation impact on cash crop productivity and income in Punjab province of Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09368-x}, pmid = {32474785}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Assessing the current farm-level efforts of climate change adaptation is essential to distinguish their usefulness and implying policy level advance measures for future. The present study investigated cotton farmers' climate change adaptation and its impact on increasing cotton productivity and net cotton income in Punjab province of Pakistan. A pretested and well-structured questionnaire was used for data collection of 480 cotton farmers from three major cotton-producing divisions of cotton-wheat zone of Punjab, Pakistan. Logistic regression analysis approach was used in this study to find out the factors of adaptation and propensity score matching method employed to identify connecting adaptation impact on cotton productivity and cotton income. Empirical estimates of this study indicated as owing to some external and internal constraint farmers were limited focused on adaptation while conscious about adverse effects of climate change. Usage of required and recommended types of fertilizer, variation in planting dates, and changing varieties of crop were main adaptation strategies implemented by cotton farmers. Cotton farmers' adaptation decision was significantly influenced by some major factors as weather forecasting, market information, easy access to agricultural extension services, farming experience, and education of cotton farmer. Farm-level increase in cotton productivity and net cotton crop income was direct while overall increases in national output and improving rural area farmer well-being were indirect and significant outcomes of implementing climate change adaptation of cotton farmers. Cotton farmers were using various combinations of adaptation strategies and achieving more benefits regarding their crop productivity and net returns. Findings of the study suggest need for larger investment in farm-level extension services, farmers' schooling, and develop climate change institutional setup for enhancing farmers' adaptation capability to increasing cotton productivity, improving well-being of farming community, and securing agriculture from future climatic uncertainties. Future policies must deal with farm-level limitations of advanced adaptation measures like making available information and sustaining sponsoring soil conservation practices, launching climate smart varieties and advanced adaptation measures based on various agro-ecological zones.}, }
@article {pmid32474308, year = {2020}, author = {Yang, L and Liu, C and Bi, P and Vardoulakis, S and Huang, C}, title = {Local actions to health risks of heatwaves and dengue fever under climate change: Strategies and barriers among primary healthcare professionals in southern China.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {187}, number = {}, pages = {109688}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109688}, pmid = {32474308}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and extreme weather poses significant threats to community health, which need to be addressed by local health workforce. This study investigated the perceptions of primary healthcare professionals in Southern China on individual and institutional strategies for actions on health impacts of climate change and the related barriers.<br><br>METHODS: A mixed methodological approach was adopted, involving a cross-sectional questionnaire survey of 733 primary healthcare professionals (including medical doctors, nurses, public health practitioners, allied health workers and managers) selected through a multistage cluster randomized sampling strategy, and in-depth interviews of 25 key informants in Guangdong Province, China. The questionnaire survey investigated the perceptions of respondents on the health impacts of climate change and the individual and institutional actions that need to be taken in response to climate change. Multivariate logistic regression models were established to determine sociodemographic factors associated with the perceptions. The interviews tapped into coping strategies and perceived barriers in primary health care to adapt to tackle challenges of climate change. Contents analyses were performed to extract important themes.<br><br>RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The majority (64%) of respondents agreed that climate change is happening, but only 53.6% believed in its human causes. Heat waves and infectious diseases were highly recognized as health problems associated with climate change. There was a strong consensus on the need to strengthen individual and institutional capacities in response to health impacts of climate change. The respondents believed that it is important to educate the public, take active efforts to control infectious vectors, and pay increased attention to the health care of vulnerable populations. The lack of funding and limited local workforce capacity is a major barrier for taking actions. Climate change should be integrated into primary health care development through sustainable governmental funding and resource support.}, }
@article {pmid32470658, year = {2020}, author = {Ahmed, M}, title = {Introduction to Modern Climate Change. Andrew E. Dessler: Cambridge University Press, 2011, 252 pp, ISBN-10: 0521173159.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {734}, number = {}, pages = {139397}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139397}, pmid = {32470658}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is the variability of the climate system that includes the atmosphere, the biogeochemical cycles (Carbon cycle, Nitrogen cycle and Hydrological cycle), the land surface, ice and the biotic and abiotic components of the planet earth. Significant impact of climate change is seen in the form of rise in temperature called as global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are the primary greenhouse gases (GHGs) mainly responsible for the global warming and climate change. These GHGs have drawn lot of attention due to their significant role in the global warming potential. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested to stop global warming at 1.5oC above preindustrial levels as warming beyond this level might lead to heat extremes, alter insect and plant phenology (Phenological shifts) and more occurrence of vector borne diseases. Climate change is the topic of interest in all fields of life starting from social science and going to the applied science. Global climate cycles and world food production systems are under threat due to the recent climate extreme events. These events include heat waves and change in the rainfall patterns. Thus, risk reduction intervention in the form of mitigation and adaptation is required to minimize the impacts of climate change. Mitigation option includes understanding the present and future components of the climate system and interaction among them through coupled modeling system i.e. Global Circulation Model (GCM). Finally, global issue of climate change could be addressed by taking worldwide cooperation and action and adopting sustainable measures like use of alternative energy sources. The visible benefit on recovery of climate has been seen recently through global lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.}, }
@article {pmid32468376, year = {2020}, author = {Ahmad, M and Raza, MY}, title = {Role of public-private partnerships investment in energy and technological innovations in driving climate change: evidence from Brazil.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09307-w}, pmid = {32468376}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {This study aims to examine the impact of public-private partnerships (PPP) investment in energy, technological innovations (TI), economic growth (EG), exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on CO2 emissions in Brazil over the period from 1984 to 2018. In doing so, we employ the Ng-Perron unit root test to examine the stationarity and autoregressive lag distributed (ARDL) model for cointegration between CO2 emissions and its determinants. The outcomes are as follows: first, in the long run, the PPP investment in energy deteriorates the environmental quality by increasing CO2 emissions, while TI has a significant negative effect on CO2 emissions. It is also found that the exports and FDI degrade the environmental quality and the relationship between EG and CO2 emissions is inverted U-Shaped, presence of the EKC hypothesis. Second, in the short run, PPP investment in the energy sector is negatively influencing, while TI has a positive association with carbon emissions. The empirical findings provide new insights for policymakers to regulate PPP investment in the energy sector for the improvement of environmental quality in Brazil. Graphical abstract.}, }
@article {pmid32468367, year = {2020}, author = {Shehzad, K and Xiaoxing, L and Sarfraz, M and Zulfiqar, M}, title = {Signifying the imperative nexus between climate change and information and communication technology development: a case from Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09128-x}, pmid = {32468367}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {71673043//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {The globe has faced technological affluence that enormously revolutionized the lives of humankind. Today, the manufacturing process of the energy sector, production sector, agriculture sector, and service sector is exclusively or partially based on ICT tools. The key intention of this investigation is to find out the impacts of the utilization of ICT on CO2 emission. However, this investigation also evaluates the influence of investment in ICT and the trade of ICT tools on CO2 emission. Further, the estimation examined the subsistence of environment Kuznets curve (EKC) theory, for the nation of Pakistan. The investigation employed an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and found that the utilization of ICT has a negative impact on CO2 emission. Moreover, the long-run results revealed that the import of ICT equipment is more beneficial for the environment quality of Pakistan. However, ICT apparatus manufactured in Pakistan might produce electronic waste due to non-utilization of green technology. The study reported bidirectional causality between ICT and CO2 emission. These results point towards that the emergence of ICT in industries and daily life possesses a significant and positive role in climate change in Pakistan. Also, this study corroborates the veracity of EKC in Pakistan.}, }
@article {pmid32464708, year = {2020}, author = {Boulton, CA and Ritchie, PDL and Lenton, TM}, title = {Abrupt changes in Great Britain vegetation carbon projected under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15144}, pmid = {32464708}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NE/P007880/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; RPG-2018-046//Leverhulme Trust/ ; }, abstract = {Past abrupt 'regime shifts' have been observed in a range of ecosystems due to various forcing factors. Large-scale abrupt shifts are projected for some terrestrial ecosystems under climate change, particularly in tropical and high-latitude regions. However, there is very little high-resolution modelling of smaller-scale future projected abrupt shifts in ecosystems, and relatively less focus on the potential for abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that numerous climate-driven abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon are projected in a high-resolution model of Great Britain's land surface driven by two different climate change scenarios. In each scenario, the effects of climate and CO2 combined are isolated from the effects of climate change alone. We use a new algorithm to detect and classify abrupt shifts in model time series, assessing the sign and strength of the non-linear responses. The abrupt ecosystem changes projected are non-linear responses to climate change, not simply driven by abrupt shifts in climate. Depending on the scenario, 374-1,144 grid cells of 1.5 km × 1.5 km each, comprising 0.5%-1.5% of Great Britain's land area show abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon. We find that abrupt ecosystem shifts associated with increases (rather than decreases) in vegetation carbon, show the greatest potential for early warning signals (rising autocorrelation and variance beforehand). In one scenario, 89% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon show increasing autocorrelation and variance beforehand. Across the scenarios, 81% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon have increasing autocorrelation and 74% increasing variance beforehand, whereas for decreases in vegetation carbon these figures are 56% and 47% respectively. Our results should not be taken as specific spatial or temporal predictions of abrupt ecosystem change. However, they serve to illustrate that numerous abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems could occur in a changing climate, with some early warning signals detectable beforehand.}, }
@article {pmid32464389, year = {2020}, author = {Ahmed, M}, title = {Introduction to Modern Climate Change. Andrew E. Dessler: Cambridge University Press, 2011, 252 pp, ISBN-10: 0521173159.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {734}, number = {}, pages = {139397}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139397}, pmid = {32464389}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is the variability of the climate system that includes the atmosphere, the biogeochemical cycles (Carbon cycle, Nitrogen cycle and Hydrological cycle), the land surface, ice and the biotic and abiotic components of the planet earth. Significant impact of climate change is seen in the form of rise in temperature called as global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are the primary greenhouse gases (GHGs) mainly responsible for the global warming and climate change. These GHGs have drawn lot of attention due to their significant role in the global warming potential. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested to stop global warming at 1.5oC above preindustrial levels as warming beyond this level might lead to heat extremes, alter insect and plant phenology (Phenological shifts) and more occurrence of vector borne diseases. Climate change is the topic of interest in all fields of life starting from social science and going to the applied science. Global climate cycles and world food production systems are under threat due to the recent climate extreme events. These events include heat waves and change in the rainfall patterns. Thus, risk reduction intervention in the form of mitigation and adaptation is required to minimize the impacts of climate change. Mitigation option includes understanding the present and future components of the climate system and interaction among them through coupled modeling system i.e. Global Circulation Model (GCM). Finally, global issue of climate change could be addressed by taking worldwide cooperation and action and adopting sustainable measures like use of alternative energy sources. The visible benefit on recovery of climate has been seen recently through global lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.}, }
@article {pmid32463845, year = {2020}, author = {Elston, DM}, title = {Climate change and expansion of tick geography.}, journal = {Cutis}, volume = {105}, number = {4}, pages = {161-162}, pmid = {32463845}, issn = {2326-6929}, }
@article {pmid32458307, year = {2020}, author = {Sardá, LG and Higarashi, MM and Nicoloso, RS and Falkoski, C and Ribeiro, SMS and Silveira, CAP and Soares, HM}, title = {Effects of dicyandiamide and Mg/P on the global warming potential of swine slurry and sawdust cocomposting.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09244-8}, pmid = {32458307}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {02.12.08.004//Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (BR)/Fundação Parque Tecnológico Itaipú (BR)/ ; 401196/2016-0//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico/ ; }, abstract = {Composting is an emerging strategy for swine slurry treatment; nonetheless, significant greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions may occur during this process. We carried out two separate assays with increasing doses of dicyandiamide (DCD; up to 1.1% w/w) as a nitrification inhibitor and solutions of MgCl2 and H3PO4 (Mg/P; up to 0.09/0.06 mol kg-1) to promote struvite crystallization in order to assess their efficiencies as additives to decrease GHG emission during swine slurry cocomposting with sawdust (1:1v/v). We monitored the nitrous oxide (N2O-N), methane (CH4-C), and carbon dioxide (CO2-C) emissions and the ammonia (NH4+-N) and nitrate/nitrite (NOx-N) concentrations in compost reactors (35 L) during the first 4-5 weeks of composting. DCD had no effect on CH4-C and CO2-C emissions but decreased N2O-N losses by up to 56% compared with control. However, DCD inactivation was favored by thermophilic conditions and N2O-N emissions increased to same levels of control after 13 days. Mg/P was effective to decrease N2O-N losses only at the highest dose, which also sustained higher [NH4+-N] in the compost by the end of the assessment. Nonetheless, the use of 0.09/0.06 mol kg-1 of Mg/P also decreased CH4-C and CO2-C emissions compared with lower doses of Mg/P and unamended treatments. Overall, DCD and Mg/P amendments decreased the global warming potential (GWP) of swine slurry composting by up to 46 and 28%, respectively. The Mg/P application may be also interesting to increase the compost quality by increasing its NH4+-N availability. Graphical abstract.}, }
@article {pmid32457782, year = {2020}, author = {Calleja-Cabrera, J and Boter, M and Oñate-Sánchez, L and Pernas, M}, title = {Root Growth Adaptation to Climate Change in Crops.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {544}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00544}, pmid = {32457782}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change is threatening crop productivity worldwide and new solutions to adapt crops to these environmental changes are urgently needed. Elevated temperatures driven by climate change affect developmental and physiological plant processes that, ultimately, impact on crop yield and quality. Plant roots are responsible for water and nutrients uptake, but changes in soil temperatures alters this process limiting crop growth. With the predicted variable climatic forecast, the development of an efficient root system better adapted to changing soil and environmental conditions is crucial for enhancing crop productivity. Root traits associated with improved adaptation to rising temperatures are increasingly being analyzed to obtain more suitable crop varieties. In this review, we will summarize the current knowledge about the effect of increasing temperatures on root growth and their impact on crop yield. First, we will describe the main alterations in root architecture that different crops undergo in response to warmer soils. Then, we will outline the main coordinated physiological and metabolic changes taking place in roots and aerial parts that modulate the global response of the plant to increased temperatures. We will discuss on some of the main regulatory mechanisms controlling root adaptation to warmer soils, including the activation of heat and oxidative pathways to prevent damage of root cells and disruption of root growth; the interplay between hormonal regulatory pathways and the global changes on gene expression and protein homeostasis. We will also consider that in the field, increasing temperatures are usually associated with other abiotic and biotic stresses such as drought, salinity, nutrient deficiencies, and pathogen infections. We will present recent advances on how the root system is able to integrate and respond to complex and different stimuli in order to adapt to an increasingly changing environment. Finally, we will discuss the new prospects and challenges in this field as well as the more promising pathways for future research.}, }
@article {pmid32457557, year = {2020}, author = {García-Del-Amo, D and Mortyn, PG and Reyes-García, V}, title = {Including Indigenous and local knowledge in climate research. An assessment of the opinion of Spanish climate change researchers.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {160}, number = {1}, pages = {67-88}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02628-x}, pmid = {32457557}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Researchers have documented that observations of climate change impacts reported by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities coincide with scientific measurements of such impacts. However, insights from Indigenous and Local Knowledge are not yet completely included in international climate change research and policy fora. In this article, we compare observations of climate change impacts detected by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities from around the world and collected through a literature review (n=198 case studies), with climate scientists' opinions on the relevance of such information for climate change research. Scientists' opinions were collected through a web survey among climate change researchers from universities and research centres in Spain (n=191). In the survey, we asked about the need to collect local level data regarding 68 different groups of indicators of climate change impacts to improve the current knowledge, and about the feasibility of using Indigenous and local knowledge in climate change studies. Results show consensus on the need to continue collecting local level data from all groups of indicators to get a better understanding of climate change impacts, particularly on impacts on the biological system. However, while scientists of our study considered that Indigenous and local knowledge could mostly contribute to detect climate change impacts on the biological and socioeconomic systems, the literature review shows that information on impacts on these systems is rarely collected; researchers instead have mostly documented the impacts on the climatic and physical systems reported by Indigenous and local knowledge.}, }
@article {pmid32457461, year = {2020}, author = {Palmer, T}, title = {Short-term tests validate long-term estimates of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-01484-5}, pmid = {32457461}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32457414, year = {2020}, author = {Lembo, V and Lucarini, V and Ragone, F}, title = {Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {8668}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2}, pmid = {32457414}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change. We perform our study using a fully coupled model - MPI-ESM v.1.2 - and for the first time we prove the effectiveness of response theory in predicting future climate response to CO2 increase on a vast range of temporal scales, from inter-annual to centennial, and for very diverse climatic variables. We investigate within a unified perspective the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity, and assess the role of fast and slow processes. The prediction of the ocean heat uptake highlights the very slow relaxation to a newly established steady state. The change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is accurately predicted. The AMOC strength is initially reduced and then undergoes a slow and partial recovery. The ACC strength initially increases due to changes in the wind stress, then undergoes a slowdown, followed by a recovery leading to a overshoot with respect to the initial value. Finally, we are able to predict accurately the temperature change in the North Atlantic.}, }
@article {pmid32457137, year = {2020}, author = {Rushing, CS and Royle, JA and Ziolkowski, DJ and Pardieck, KL}, title = {Migratory behavior and winter geography drive differential range shifts of eastern birds in response to recent climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2000299117}, pmid = {32457137}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species distribution models and quantify the rate of latitudinal range shifts in 32 species of birds native to eastern North America. Since the early 1970s, species that remain in North America throughout the year, including both resident and migratory species, appear to have responded to climate change through both colonization of suitable area at the northern leading edge of their breeding distributions and adaption in place at the southern trailing edges. Neotropical migrants, in contrast, have shown the opposite pattern: contraction at their southern trailing edges and no measurable shifts in their northern leading edges. As a result, the latitudinal distributions of temperate-wintering species have increased while the latitudinal distributions of neotropical migrants have decreased. These results raise important questions about the mechanisms that determine range boundaries of neotropical migrants and suggest that these species may be particularly vulnerable to future climate change. Our results highlight the potential importance of climate change during the nonbreeding season in constraining the response of migratory species to temperature changes at both the trailing and leading edges of their breeding distributions. Future research on the interactions between breeding and nonbreeding climate change is urgently needed.}, }
@article {pmid32454547, year = {2020}, author = {Treptow, TM}, title = {[Impact of Corona Crisis on European Climate Change Policy].}, journal = {Wirtschaftsdienst (Hamburg, Germany : 1949)}, volume = {100}, number = {5}, pages = {364-366}, doi = {10.1007/s10273-020-2656-9}, pmid = {32454547}, issn = {0043-6275}, abstract = {The actual Corona crisis has a negative impact on the economic situation of the affected economies. This has direct consequences for the EU-wide trading of greenhouse gas emission allowances, which is an important building block of European climate change policy. In contrast, although there is an expected short-term decrease in the volume of greenhouse gas emissions due to the emerging economic recession, we should also expect lower prices of emission allowances in the mid to long term, which will make current production technologies more attractive. One important goal of European climate change policy - changing existing manufacturing technologies to less greenhouse gas emitting alternatives - will become even more difficult.}, }
@article {pmid32451968, year = {2020}, author = {Ginbo, T and Di Corato, L and Hoffmann, R}, title = {Investing in climate change adaptation and mitigation: A methodological review of real-options studies.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-020-01342-8}, pmid = {32451968}, issn = {1654-7209}, abstract = {Uncertain future payoffs and irreversible costs characterize investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Under these conditions, it is relevant to analyze investment decisions in a real options framework, as this approach takes into account the economic value associated with investment time flexibility. In this paper, we provide an overview of the literature adopting a real option approach to analyze investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation, and examine how the uncertain impacts of climate change on the condition of the human environment, risk preferences, and strategic interactions among decisions-makers have been modeled. We found that the complex nature of uncertainties associated with climate change is typically only partially taken into account and that the analysis is usually limited to decisions taken by individual risk neutral profit maximizers. Our findings call for further research to fill the identified gaps.}, }
@article {pmid32449267, year = {2020}, author = {Venäläinen, A and Lehtonen, I and Laapas, M and Ruosteenoja, K and Tikkanen, OP and Viiri, H and Ikonen, VP and Peltola, H}, title = {Climate change induces multiple risks to boreal forests and forestry in Finland: a literature review.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15183}, pmid = {32449267}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change induces multiple abiotic and biotic risks to forests and forestry. Risks in different spatial and temporal scales must be considered to ensure preconditions for sustainable multifunctional management of forests for different ecosystem services. For this purpose, the present review article summarizes the most recent findings on major abiotic and biotic risks to boreal forests in Finland under the current and changing climate, with the focus on windstorms, heavy snow loading, drought and forest fires, and major insect pests and pathogens of trees. In general, the forest growth is projected to increase mainly in northern Finland. In the south, the growing conditions may become suboptimal, particularly for Norway spruce. Although the wind climate does not change remarkably, wind damage risk will increase especially in the south, because of the shortening of the soil frost period. The risk of snow damage is anticipated to increase in the north and decrease in the south. Increasing drought in summer will boost the risk of large-scale forest fires. Also, the warmer climate increases the risk of bark beetle outbreaks and the wood decay by Heterobasidion root rot in coniferous forests. The probability of detrimental cascading events, such as those caused by a large-scale wind damage followed by a widespread bark beetle outbreak, will increase remarkably in the future. Therefore, the simultaneous consideration of the biotic and abiotic risks is essential.}, }
@article {pmid32447805, year = {2020}, author = {Patruno, C and Nisticò, SP and Fabbrocini, G and Napolitano, M}, title = {Is climate change the next pandemic for dermatology? Lessons from COVID-19.}, journal = {Dermatologic therapy}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/dth.13682}, pmid = {32447805}, issn = {1529-8019}, }
@article {pmid32446069, year = {2020}, author = {López-Ballesteros, A and Senent-Aparicio, J and Martínez, C and Pérez-Sánchez, J}, title = {Assessment of future hydrologic alteration due to climate change in the Aracthos River basin (NW Greece).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {733}, number = {}, pages = {139299}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139299}, pmid = {32446069}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is a worldwide reality with significant effects on hydrological processes. It has already produce alterations in streamflow regime and is expected to continue in the future. To counteract the climate change impact, a better understanding of its effects is necessary. Hydrological models in combination with Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) suppose an up-to-date approach to analyze in detail the impacts of climate change on rivers. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration in Rivers (IAHRIS) software were successfully applied in Aracthos River basin, an agricultural watershed located in the north-western area of Greece. Statistical indices showed an acceptable performance of the SWAT model in both calibration (R2 = 0.74, NSE = 0.54, PBIAS = 17.06%) and validation (R2 = 0.64, NSE = 0.36, PBIAS = 12.31%) periods on a daily basis. To assess the future hydrologic alteration due to climate change in Aracthos River basin, five Global Climate Models (GFDL-ESM2, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M) were selected and analyzed under two different emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for a long-term period (2070-2099). Results indicate that precipitation and flow is expected to be reduced and maximum and minimum temperature to be increased, compared to the historical period (1970-1999). IHA, obtained from IAHRIS software, revealed that flow regime can undergo a severe alteration, mainly on droughts that are expected to be more significant and longer. All these future hydrologic alterations could have negative consequences on the Aracthos River and its surroundings. The increase of droughts duration in combination with the reduction of flows and the alteration of seasonality can affect the resilience of riverine species and it can produce the loss of hydraulic and environmental diversity. Therefore, this study provides a useful tool for decision makers to develop strategies against the impact of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32445137, year = {2020}, author = {Abbas, S}, title = {Climate change and cotton production: an empirical investigation of Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09222-0}, pmid = {32445137}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {This study investigates the relationship between climate change, the area under cultivation, fertilizer consumption, and cotton production in Pakistan from 1980 to 2018. The existence and nature of the short-term and long-term relationships are explored by using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model bounds testing approach. The estimated result of the ARDL bounds testing approach has shown the presence of cointegration between dependent and explanatory variables. The long-term estimates have revealed that the increasing average temperature has a positive insignificant effect, which implies that rising temperature is not increasing cotton yield in Pakistan. The findings of the area under cultivation and fertilizer consumption have revealed significant positive effects in both the long run and short run. This study urges Pakistan to reduce the pace of climate changes and increase water conservation by planting forests and constructing dams across major rivers along with the adoption of environmentally friendly production techniques and inputs.}, }
@article {pmid32444801, year = {2020}, author = {Theodoridis, S and Fordham, DA and Brown, SC and Li, S and Rahbek, C and Nogues-Bravo, D}, title = {Evolutionary history and past climate change shape the distribution of genetic diversity in terrestrial mammals.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2557}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-16449-5}, pmid = {32444801}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {DNRF96//Danmarks Grundforskningsfond (Danish National Research Foundation)/ ; }, abstract = {Knowledge of global patterns of biodiversity, ranging from intraspecific genetic diversity (GD) to taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity, is essential for identifying and conserving the processes that shape the distribution of life. Yet, global patterns of GD and its drivers remain elusive. Here we assess existing biodiversity theories to explain and predict the global distribution of GD in terrestrial mammal assemblages. We find a strong positive covariation between GD and interspecific diversity, with evolutionary time, reflected in phylogenetic diversity, being the best predictor of GD. Moreover, we reveal the negative effect of past rapid climate change and the positive effect of inter-annual precipitation variability in shaping GD. Our models, explaining almost half of the variation in GD globally, uncover the importance of deep evolutionary history and past climate stability in accumulating and maintaining intraspecific diversity, and constitute a crucial step towards reducing the Wallacean shortfall for an important dimension of biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid32444051, year = {2020}, author = {Kemper, KJ and Etzel, RA}, title = {Addressing climate change: Academic pediatricians' personal and professional actions.}, journal = {Complementary therapies in medicine}, volume = {50}, number = {}, pages = {102386}, doi = {10.1016/j.ctim.2020.102386}, pmid = {32444051}, issn = {1873-6963}, }
@article {pmid32443221, year = {2020}, author = {McDonnell, TC and Reinds, GJ and Wamelink, GWW and Goedhart, PW and Posch, M and Sullivan, TJ and Clark, CM}, title = {Threshold effects of air pollution and climate change on understory plant communities at forested sites in the eastern United States.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {262}, number = {}, pages = {114351}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2020.114351}, pmid = {32443221}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Forest understory plant communities in the eastern United States are often diverse and are potentially sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric inputs of nitrogen caused by air pollution. In recent years, empirical and processed-based mathematical models have been developed to investigate such changes in plant communities. In the study reported here, a robust set of understory vegetation response functions (expressed as version 2 of the Probability of Occurrence of Plant Species model for the United States [US-PROPS v2]) was developed based on observations of forest understory and grassland plant species presence/absence and associated abiotic characteristics derived from spatial datasets. Improvements to the US-PROPS model, relative to version 1, were mostly focused on inclusion of additional input data, development of custom species-level input datasets, and implementation of methods to address uncertainty. We investigated the application of US-PROPS v2 to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, and climate change on forest ecosystems at three forested sites located in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee in the eastern United States. Species-level N and S critical loads (CLs) were determined under ambient deposition at all three modeled sites. The lowest species-level CLs of N deposition at each site were between 2 and 11 kg N/ha/yr. Similarly, the lowest CLs of S deposition, based on the predicted soil pH response, were less than 2 kg S/ha/yr among the three sites. Critical load exceedance was found at all three model sites. The New Hampshire site included the largest percentage of species in exceedance. Simulated warming air temperature typically resulted in lower maximum occurrence probability, which contributed to lower CLs of N and S deposition. The US-PROPS v2 model, together with the PROPS-CLF model to derive CL functions, can be used to develop site-specific CLs for understory plants within broad regions of the United States. This study demonstrates that species-level CLs of N and S deposition are spatially variable according to the climate, light availability, and soil characteristics at a given location. Although the species niche models generally performed well in predicting occurrence probability, there remains uncertainty with respect to the accuracy of reported CLs. As such, the specific CLs reported here should be considered as preliminary estimates.}, }
@article {pmid32442491, year = {2020}, author = {Armitage, R and Nellums, LB}, title = {Water, climate change, and COVID-19: prioritising those in water-stressed settings.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {e175}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30084-X}, pmid = {32442491}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid32442490, year = {2020}, author = {Herrero, M and Thornton, P}, title = {What can COVID-19 teach us about responding to climate change?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {e174}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30085-1}, pmid = {32442490}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid32442176, year = {2020}, author = {Mausio, K and Miura, T and Lincoln, NK}, title = {Cultivation potential projections of breadfruit (Artocarpus altilis) under climate change scenarios using an empirically validated suitability model calibrated in Hawai'i.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e0228552}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0228552}, pmid = {32442176}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Humanity faces significant challenges to agriculture and human nutrition, and changes in climate are predicted to make such challenges greater in the future. Neglected and underutilized crops may play a role in mitigating and addressing such challenges. Breadfruit is a long-lived tree crop that is a nutritious, carbohydrate-rich staple, which is a priority crop in this regard. A fuzzy-set modeling approach was applied, refined, and validated for breadfruit to determine its current and future potential productivity. Hawai'i was used as a model system, with over 1,200 naturalized trees utilized to calibrate a habitat suitability model and 56 producer sites used to validate the model. The parameters were then applied globally on 17 global climate models at the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 global climate projections for 2070. Overall, breadfruit suitability increases in area and in quality, with larger increases occurring in the RCP 8.5 projection. Current producing regions largely remain unchanged in both projections, indicating relative stability of production potential in current growing regions. Breadfruit, and other tropical indigenous food crops present strong opportunities for cultivation and food security risk management strategies moving forward.}, }
@article {pmid32438186, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, H and Huang, B and Yang, C}, title = {Assessing the coordination between economic growth and urban climate change in China from 2000 to 2015.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {732}, number = {}, pages = {139283}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139283}, pmid = {32438186}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The balance between economic growth and environmental protection has been a critical concern for sustainable urban development. However, among the multiple research efforts exploring the coordination between the two aspects, the widespread urban climate change has rarely been considered. This study encompasses urban climate change into the cross-system coupling analysis framework to assess its coordination with economic growth using the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model. The two aspects are respectively represented using indicators of Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity (SUHII) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Specifically, China is selected as case study, and a total of 259 cities from the 2000-2015 period are analyzed. The spatio-temporal patterns of CCD are investigated through time series clustering to uncover its performance under diversified economic and climatic contexts. The regional inequality and spatial agglomeration effects are also examined. Results reveal significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity of CCD. Geographically, CCD varies from uncoordinated to high-level coordination. Wealthier cities in the eastern coastal region are significantly better coordinated than their inland counterparts. Temporally, the uptrend of CCD is not significant for most cities due to the relatively insufficient emphasis on urban heat island (UHI) mitigation in previous efforts. Evident spatial inequality and agglomeration patterns are also observed with slight downtrends. The spatio-temporal patterns of CCD revealed in this study indicate great necessity for the central government to develop policies suiting cities' special characteristics and contexts, and more efforts should be targeted on reducing regional imbalance. Hence, a nation-city-community policy skeleton is last outlined to enhance the pursuit of a more climate-friendly urban environment under rapid economic development. Overall, this study advances the understanding of economy-urban climate interactions and facilitates the future pursuit of better sustainable cities. The proposed workflow can be utilized for other countries with diversified urbanization processes and potentially used for comparison among different countries.}, }
@article {pmid32435692, year = {2020}, author = {Jin, S}, title = {COVID-19, Climate Change, and Renewable Energy Research: We Are All in This Together, and the Time to Act Is Now.}, journal = {ACS energy letters}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {1709-1711}, doi = {10.1021/acsenergylett.0c00910}, pmid = {32435692}, issn = {2380-8195}, }
@article {pmid32435603, year = {2020}, author = {Sarkar, S and Maity, R}, title = {Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation in the context of climate change.}, journal = {MethodsX}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {100904}, doi = {10.1016/j.mex.2020.100904}, pmid = {32435603}, issn = {2215-0161}, abstract = {Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is the maximum depth of precipitation at a location for a given duration that is meteorologically possible. It is a crucial information for any water infrastructure, such as dams, culverts, drainage network in order to ensure a desirable probability of exceedance. This paper proposes a technique for estimation of PMP, suitable in the context of climate change. Out of several available methods, Hershfield method is considered as a convenient and effective statistical method of PMP estimation, provided sufficiently long precipitation records are available. The most crucial step in Hershfield method is the precise estimation of frequency factor (K) and its enveloping technique. There is no universally accepted enveloping technique of K. Different values of K and different types of enveloping techniques have been suggested and used by various investigators across the world. We introduce an upgradation in the existing enveloping technique in order to bring clarity and universality in the estimation, particularly in the context of climate change. This updated enveloping technique and the conventional Hershfield method-both are applied to develop PMP maps for the entire Indian mainland over the past century (1901-2000). Comparison between the proposed and existing methods of PMP estimation reveals a better estimation of spatio-temporal variation of PMP, avoiding unusual overestimation of PMP in the low rainfall extreme regions of India by existing Hershfield method. In brief, the contributions of this paper are as follows:•An upgradation of the existing Hershfield Method [1] by introducing a new enveloping technique for the frequency factor (K).•The single envelope curve in the existing Hershfield method is modified as a composite curve, consisting of a straight-line portion and an exponentially decaying portion.•Development of PMP maps over India using both Hershfield method and the proposed technique.}, }
@article {pmid32435111, year = {2020}, author = {Vellingiri, S and Dutta, P and Singh, S and Sathish, LM and Pingle, S and Brahmbhatt, B}, title = {Combating Climate Change-induced Heat Stress: Assessing Cool Roofs and Its Impact on the Indoor Ambient Temperature of the Households in the Urban Slums of Ahmedabad.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {25-29}, doi = {10.4103/ijoem.IJOEM_120_19}, pmid = {32435111}, issn = {0973-2284}, abstract = {Background: The rising global temperature and frequent heatwaves are the adverse effects of climate change. The causalities and ill impacts of the heat stress were higher among the slum dwellers because of the vulnerable household structures, which were made by heat-trapping materials like tin sheets, cement sheet (asbestos), plastic, and tarpaulin. The houses are not only dwellings but also a source of livelihood for many slum dwellers as they are involved in home-based work. The increase in the temperature of more than 40°C severely affects health and increases energy expenditures.<br><br>Objective: The present study conducted to identify the efficient cool roof technologies that reduce indoor temperature of the households and improve the heat resilience of dwellings located in the urban slums of Ahmedabad.<br><br>Methodology: The performances of cool roof interventions were compared with the nonintervention - roof types, namely, tin, asbestos/cement sheet, and concrete. Relative humidity/temperature data loggers (Lascar EL-USB-2-LCD, Sweden) were used to measure the indoor ambient temperature and humidity. The questionnaire-based survey also has been conducted to understand the socioeconomic status and the perceptions related to roofing and health.<br><br>Results: The results revealed that selected cool roof technologies including Thermocol insulation, solar reflective white paint on the outer surface of the roof, and Modroof are effectively reducing the indoor temperature as compared to the nonintervention roofing.<br><br>Conclusion: Cool roof technologies have a wider scope as number of informal settlements are increasing across the cities in India and other developing countries. The governments may not able to provide proper housing to all these inhabitants due to various reasons including the land tenure of the habitats. Validated cool roof technologies can be promoted as these structures are not requires legal sanctions and easily dismantled and installed in multiple places and safeguards the investment of urban poor.}, }
@article {pmid32433979, year = {2020}, author = {Skole, K and Mahpour, N}, title = {Additional Thoughts on &quot;How Can Individuals and the GI Community Reduce Climate Change&quot;.}, journal = {Gastroenterology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1053/j.gastro.2020.02.069}, pmid = {32433979}, issn = {1528-0012}, }
@article {pmid32432423, year = {2020}, author = {Delorme, H and Gonzalez Holguera, J and Niwa, N and Backes, C and Senn, N}, title = {[Co-benefits of health promotion on global warming - The example of food and mobility].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {16}, number = {694}, pages = {1049-1055}, pmid = {32432423}, issn = {1660-9379}, abstract = {Global warming is considered by most scientists as one of the greatest public health threats of the 21st century. Some individual behaviours and consumption habits related to the food and mobility sectors are responsible for a high amount of CO2 emissions, the main greenhouse gas. Thus, some messages promoted by health professionals will have an impact on the fight against the epidemic of lifestyle-related chronic diseases but will also have an environmental co-benefit. With a population increasingly aware of current environmental issues, environmental considerations could be an additional motivating factor for patients when promoting a healthier diet or physical activity.}, }
@article {pmid32432122, year = {2020}, author = {Ferrari, M and Benvenuti, L and Rossi, L and De Santis, A and Sette, S and Martone, D and Piccinelli, R and Le Donne, C and Leclercq, C and Turrini, A}, title = {Could Dietary Goals and Climate Change Mitigation Be Achieved Through Optimized Diet? The Experience of Modeling the National Food Consumption Data in Italy.}, journal = {Frontiers in nutrition}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {48}, doi = {10.3389/fnut.2020.00048}, pmid = {32432122}, issn = {2296-861X}, abstract = {Objective: The aim of this study is to define a healthy and sustainable diet model with low GHGE, fulfilling dietary requirements, and considering current Italian food consumption patterns. Design: A duly designed database was developed, linking food nutritional composition and GHGE based on 921 food items consumed in Italy according to the last national food consumption survey (INRAN-SCAI 2005-2006). Linear programming was used to develop new diet plans separately for males and females, aged 18-60 years (n = 2,098 subjects), in order to minimize GHGE. The program is based on dietary goals and acceptability constraints as well as on 13 nutrient requirement constraints aiming to reach a healthy and acceptable diet for the Italian population. Results: Diet optimization resulted in a nutritionally adequate pattern minimizing GHGE values (4.0 vs. 1.9 kg CO2e/day for males and 3.2 vs. 1.6 kg CO2e/day for females). In both sexes, the nutrient intake of the optimized diet was at the established lower bound for cholesterol and calcium and at the established upper bound for free sugar and fiber. In males, intake of zinc was at the established lower bound whereas iron was at the established upper bound. Consumption of red meat and fruit and vegetables was at the established lower and upper bound, respectively, in both males and females. Despite the decrease in meat consumption, especially red meat, in the optimized diet with respect to the observed diet, levels of iron intake in females increased by 10% (10.3 vs. 11.3 mg/day) but remained below the adequate intake established in Italian national DRIs. Conclusions: An attainable healthy dietary pattern was developed that would lead to the reduction of GHGE by 48% for males and by 50% for females with respect to current food consumption in the Italian adult population. Health-promoting dietary patterns can substantially contribute to achieve related Sustainable Development Goals.}, }
@article {pmid32430321, year = {2020}, author = {Overpeck, JT and Udall, B}, title = {Climate change and the aridification of North America.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2006323117}, pmid = {32430321}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid32429607, year = {2019}, author = {Pinkerton, KE and Felt, E and Riden, HE}, title = {Editorial: Extreme Weather Resulting from Global Warming is an Emerging Threat to Farmworker Health and Safety.}, journal = {Journal of agricultural safety and health}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {189-190}, doi = {10.13031/jash.13555}, pmid = {32429607}, issn = {1074-7583}, abstract = {A warming climate has been linked to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including heat and cold waves, extreme precipitation, and wildfires. This increase in extreme weather results in increased risks to the health and safety of farmworkers.}, }
@article {pmid32429527, year = {2020}, author = {Joy, A and Dunshea, FR and Leury, BJ and Clarke, IJ and DiGiacomo, K and Chauhan, SS}, title = {Resilience of Small Ruminants to Climate Change and Increased Environmental Temperature: A Review.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani10050867}, pmid = {32429527}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {The University of Melbourne ECR Grant 2019//Dookie Campus, University of Melbourne/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major global threat to the sustainability of livestock systems. Climatic factors such as ambient temperature, relative humidity, direct and indirect solar radiation and wind speed influence feed and water availability, fodder quality and disease occurrence, with production being most efficient in optimal environmental conditions. Among these climatic variables, ambient temperature fluctuations have the most impact on livestock production and animal welfare. Continuous exposure of the animals to heat stress compromises growth, milk and meat production and reproduction. The capacity of an animal to mitigate effects of increased environmental temperature, without progressing into stress response, differs within and between species. Comparatively, small ruminants are better adapted to hot environments than large ruminants and have better ability to survive, produce and reproduce in harsh climatic regions. Nevertheless, the physiological and behavioral changes in response to hot environments affect small ruminant production. It has been found that tropical breeds are more adaptive to hot climates than high-producing temperate breeds. The growing body of knowledge on the negative impact of heat stress on small ruminant production and welfare will assist in the development of suitable strategies to mitigate heat stress. Selection of thermotolerant breeds, through identification of genetic traits for adaption to extreme environmental conditions (high temperature, feed scarcity, water scarcity), is a viable strategy to combat climate change and minimize the impact on small ruminant production and welfare. This review highlights such adaption within and among different breeds of small ruminants challenged by heat stress.}, }
@article {pmid32427222, year = {2020}, author = {Booth, L and Fleming, K and Abad, J and Schueller, LA and Leone, M and Scolobig, A and Baills, A}, title = {Simulating synergies between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction stakeholders to improve management of transboundary disasters in Europe.}, journal = {International journal of disaster risk reduction : IJDRR}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {101668}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101668}, pmid = {32427222}, issn = {2212-4209}, abstract = {Natural hazards and climate-related disasters disregard political borders, where additional barriers can complicate mitigation, response and recovery efforts within and between the sectors of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The ESPREssO Project (Enhancing Synergies for Disaster Prevention in the European Union) aims to improve management of transboundary disasters by encouraging closer synergies between the CCA and DRR communities. Using targeted stakeholder interviews, questionnaires, Think Tank discussions and purpose-built serious games, ESPREssO draws on both CCA and DRR stakeholder experiences and informed perspectives in order to identify current gaps. Set within a fictitious border zone, ESPREssO's RAMSETE II serious game challenges CCA and DRR stakeholders in making coordinated decisions before, during and after a simulated disaster, in protection of population and critical infrastructure. Results highlight the essential role of local governance mechanisms as the sharp end of the policy wedge, with current examples of proactivity that require to be championed and supported at national level in order to thrive. These good practice examples reflect the fact that transboundary settings, despite their challenges, act as fertile ground for mutual growth, offering opportunities for CCA and DRR communities to find innovative ways to cooperate and unite in developing synergies and strengthening their mutual efforts towards resilience. Stakeholders emphasise a need to invest more resources in informal cooperation and call on policy makers to recognise that each border zone raises its own unique set of complex challenges that requires flexibility and special consideration by transboundary authorities in management of disasters.}, }
@article {pmid32424389, year = {2020}, author = {Eftaiha, AF and Qaroush, AK and Alsayyed, AW and Al-Qaisi, F and Alsoubani, F and Assaf, KI}, title = {The eternal battle to combat global warming: (thio)urea as a CO2 wet scrubbing agent.}, journal = {Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1039/d0cp00629g}, pmid = {32424389}, issn = {1463-9084}, abstract = {(Thio)Urea scaffolds are best known for their importance as intermediates in organic synthesis. In this work, a mechanistic study of the reaction between urea (U), (2-hydroxyethyl)urea (U-EtOH) and thiourea (tU)/NaH in DMSO with CO2 was carried out. While both U/tU reacted with CO2 via a 1 : 2 mechanism through the formation of the keto (thio)carbamide-carboxylate adducts (k-U/tU-CO2- Na+), U-EtOH gave mixed CO2-adducts composed of organic carbonate and carbamide-carboxylate moieties (Na+-CO2-U-Et-OCO2- Na+). Moreover, we recorded for the first time, a new type of bond, namely sodium carbamimidothiocarbonate (e-tU-SCO2- Na+), upon bubbling CO2 in the DMSO solution of tU due to the persistence of the enol form (e-tU) and the better nucleophilicity of sulfur over nitrogen focal points. The reaction mechanisms were proven by 1D and 2D nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and ex situ attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopies. The stability of these bonds was studied following the changes in 1H-NMR as a function of temperature, which indicated the reversibility of these reactions. Furthermore, the proposed mechanisms were explored theoretically via density functional theory (DFT) calculations by analyzing the energetics of the anticipated products.}, }
@article {pmid32423079, year = {2020}, author = {Tuno, N and Phong, TV and Takagi, M}, title = {Climate Change May Restrict the Predation Efficiency of Mesocyclops aspericornis (Copepoda: Cyclopidae) on Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Larvae.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/insects11050307}, pmid = {32423079}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {No. 14256003, No. 19256002//Grands-in-aid for Scientific Research/ ; }, abstract = {(1) Dengue is the most spread mosquito-borne viral disease in the world, and vector control is the only available means to suppress its prevalence, since no effective treatment or vaccine has been developed. A biological control program using copepods that feed on mosquito larvae has been practiced in Vietnam and some other countries, but the application of copepods was not always successful. (2) To understand why the utility of copepods varies, we evaluated the predation efficiency of a copepod species (Mesocyclops aspericornis) on a vector species (Aedes aegypti) by laboratory experiments under different temperatures, nutrition and prey-density conditions. (3) We found that copepod predation reduced intraspecific competition among Aedes larvae and then shortened the survivor's aquatic life and increased their pupal weight. In addition, the predatory efficiency of copepods was reduced at high temperatures. Furthermore, performance of copepod offspring fell when the density of mosquito larvae was high, probably because mosquito larvae had adverse effects on copepod growth through competition for food resources. (4) These results suggest that the increase in mosquitoes will not be suppressed solely by the application of copepods if the density of mosquito larvae is high or ambient temperature is high. We need to consider additional control methods in order to maintain the efficiency of copepods to suppress mosquito increase.}, }
@article {pmid32420634, year = {2020}, author = {Nogueira, LM and Yabroff, KR and Bernstein, A}, title = {Climate change and cancer.}, journal = {CA: a cancer journal for clinicians}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3322/caac.21610}, pmid = {32420634}, issn = {1542-4863}, }
@article {pmid32419148, year = {2020}, author = {Ottenburghs, J and Bosse, M}, title = {Digest: Climate change and agricultural intensification influence the strength and direction of natural selection in tree swallows.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/evo.14003}, pmid = {32419148}, issn = {1558-5646}, abstract = {How does environmental heterogeneity affect natural selection on tree swallow nestlings? Houle et al. (2020) show that more precipitation and higher temperatures result in stronger selection on body mass and wing length and that agricultural intensity can affect the direction of selection. These findings raise the question of how genetic diversity changes under strong selection pressures, which will be especially important under ongoing agriculture intensification and climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid32417982, year = {2020}, author = {Jinga, P and Palagi, J}, title = {Dry and wet miombo woodlands of south-central Africa respond differently to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {6}, pages = {372}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08342-x}, pmid = {32417982}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {Not applicable//Bindura University of Science Education/ ; }, abstract = {It is important to understand how species distributions will shift under climate change. While much focus has been on species tracking temperature changes in the northern hemisphere, changing precipitation patterns in tropical regions have received less attention. The aim of the study was to estimate the current distribution of wet and dry miombo woodlands of sub-Saharan Africa and to predict their distributions under different climate change scenarios. A maximum entropy method (Maxent) was used to estimate the distributions and for projections. Occurrence records of dominant tree species in each woodland were used for modeling, together with altitude, soil characteristics, and climate variables as the environmental variables. Modeling was done under all four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and three general circulation models. Three dominant tree species were used in models of dry miombo while seven were used for wet miombo. Models estimated dry miombo to cover almost the entire known distribution of miombo woodlands while wet miombo were estimated to predominate in parts of Angola, southern Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Future climate scenarios predict a drier climate in sub-Saharan Africa, and as a result, the range of dry miombo will expand. Dry miombo were predicted to expand by up to 17.3% in 2050 and 22.7% in 2070. In contrast, wet miombo were predicted to contract by up to - 28.6% in 2050 and - 41.6% in 2070. A warming climate is conducive for the proliferation of dry miombo tree species but unfavorable for wet miombo tree species.}, }
@article {pmid32417970, year = {2020}, author = {Zeydalinejad, N and Nassery, HR and Shakiba, A and Alijani, F}, title = {Prediction of the karstic spring flow rates under climate change by climatic variables based on the artificial neural network: a case study of Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {6}, pages = {375}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08332-z}, pmid = {32417970}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {Few studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on groundwater resources for a region with no pumping well. Indeed, the uncertainty of pumping wells may undesirably influence the results. Therefore, a region without any pumping well was selected to assess the impact of climate change on the karstic spring flow rates. NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was used to extract the climatic variables for the present (1961-1990) and future (2021-2050) time periods by two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, in Lali region, southwest Iran. Although this dataset has been already verified, its output was evaluated for Lali region. Then, the impact of climate change on the discharge of Bibitarkhoun karstic spring was examined by the Artificial Neural Network (ANN). In this regard, if considering the daily data, ANN is not trained satisfactorily, because of the spring's lag time response to the precipitation; if monthly time step is considered, the data would not be adequate. Therefore, the average of some previous days was considered to calculate the variables. The average precipitation is 344, 329, and 324 mm/year and the average temperature is 14.18, 15.98, and 16.3 °C both for the present, future time period under RCP4.5 and future time period under RCP8.5, respectively. The network selected demonstrated no climate change impact on the average of spring discharge. However, the discharge increased by about + 8% in spring and summer and decreased by about - 7% in autumn and winter in the future time period.}, }
@article {pmid32417478, year = {2020}, author = {Araya, A and Prasad, PVV and Zambreski, Z and Gowda, PH and Ciampitti, IA and Assefa, Y and Girma, A}, title = {Spatial analysis of the impact of climate change factors and adaptation strategies on productivity of wheat in Ethiopia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {731}, number = {}, pages = {139094}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139094}, pmid = {32417478}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Wheat production is expected to be challenged by future climate change. However, it is unclear how wheat grown in diverse agroecologies will respond to climate change and adaptation management strategies. A geospatial simulation study was conducted to understand the impacts of climate change and adaptation management strategies on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in Ethiopia. Simulation results showed that the average long-term baseline (1980-2005) wheat yield ranged from 1593 to 3356 kg/ha. This wheat yield range is within the national average (2100-2700 kg/ha) for this decade. In regions with cooler temperatures (<21 °C), mid-century temperatures and elevated CO2, along with increased N fertilizer slightly improved attainable yield levels above 3000 kg/ha. Whereas, in regions with heat and drought conditions wheat yield declined regardless the increase of N or CO2 levels. Wheat yield increased at a diminishing rate with increase in N fertilizer rate. However, N fertilizer did not increase yields under low rainfall conditions. Two to five irrigation per season contributed to yield improvement for low rainfall locations, while yield did not substantially improve for locations receiving adequate seasonal rainfall. Therefore, based on this study, improved N fertilizer application in combination with increased CO2 could improve wheat yield under future climate in most wheat producing regions (with adequate rainfall) of Ethiopia. Our results provide valuable information regarding impacts of climate change factors and adaptation strategies for producers, researchers, extension professionals and policy makers.}, }
@article {pmid32417470, year = {2020}, author = {Cao, B and Bai, C and Xue, Y and Yang, J and Gao, P and Liang, H and Zhang, L and Che, L and Wang, J and Xu, J and Duan, C and Mao, M and Li, G}, title = {Wetlands rise and fall: Six endangered wetland species showed different patterns of habitat shift under future climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {731}, number = {}, pages = {138518}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138518}, pmid = {32417470}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Degradation and loss of species' suitable habitats in response to global warming are well documented, which are assumed to be affected by increasing temperature. Conversely, habitat increase of species is little reported and is often considered anomalous and unrelated to climate change. In this study, we first revealed the climate-change-driven habitat shifts of six endangered wetland plants - Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, Carex doniana, Glyptostrobus pensilis, Leersia hexandra, Metasequoia glyptostroboides, and Pedicularis longiflora. The current and future potential habitats of the six species in China were predicted using a maximum entropy model based on thirty-year occurrence records and climate monitoring (from 1960 to 1990). Furthermore, we observed the change of real habitats of the six species based on eight-year field observations (from 2011 to 2019). We found that the six species exhibited three different patterns of habitat shifts including decrease, unstable, and increase. The analysis on the main decisive environmental factors showed that these patterns of habitat shifts are counter to what would be expected global warming but are mostly determined by precipitation-related environmental factors rather than temperature. Collectively, our findings highlight the importance of combining multiple environmental factors including temperature and precipitation for understanding plant responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32416361, year = {2020}, author = {Linares, C and Martinez, GS and Kendrovski, V and Diaz, J}, title = {A new integrative perspective on early warning systems for health in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {187}, number = {}, pages = {109623}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109623}, pmid = {32416361}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Climate change causes or aggravates a wide range of exposures with multiple impacts on health, both direct and indirect. Early warning systems have been established to act on the risks posed by these exposures, permitting the timely activation of action plans to minimize health effects. These plans are usually activated individually. Although they show good results from the point of view of minimizing health impacts, such as in the case of high temperature plans, they commonly fail to address the synergies across various climate-related or climate-aggravated exposures. Since several of those exposures tend to occur concurrently, failure to integrate them in prevention efforts could affect their effectiveness and reach. Thus, there is a need to carry out an integrative approach for the multiple effects that climate change has on population health. This article presents a proposal for how these plans should be articulated. The proposed integrated plan would consist of four phases. The first phase, based on early warning systems, would be the activation of different existing individual plans related to the health effects that can be caused by certain circumstances and when possible corrective measures would be implemented. The second phase would attempt to quantify the health impact foreseen by the event in terms of the different health indicators selected. The third phase would be to activate measures to minimize the impact on health, via population alerts and advisories, and additional social and health services, based on the provisions in phase two. Phase four would be related to epidemiological surveillance that permits evaluation of the effects of activating the plan. We believe that this integrative approach should be extended to all of the public health interventions related to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32415620, year = {2020}, author = {Thapliyal, G and Vemanna, RS and Pawar, PM and Barthwal, S and Meena, RK and Pandey, S and Bhandari, MS}, title = {First record of off-season flowering in Populus deltoides from India: paradigm of climate change indicator.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01915-y}, pmid = {32415620}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {Populus deltoides is a fast-growing woody species possessing plethora of industrial applications. This species evolutionarily developed unisexual male and female catkin inflorescence on separate trees. Flowering usually occurs during early spring before the development of foliage, where buds appear near axils or at the extending shoots. In 2019, surveys were undertaken to study the flowering pattern of P. deltoides in the states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in northern India. Interestingly, an anomalous flowering behaviour (appearance of off-season male catkins during autumn, i.e. October) was observed in a plantation trial at Kapurthala, Punjab. The male catkins were 2.7-3.1 ± 0.07 cm long and 0.3-0.5 ± 0.03 cm wide, which is significant for flowering and liberation of pollen grains. Preliminary results suggested that climatic factors, such as episodes of high or low temperature and the precipitation variation forcing the tree species to behave differently. Unearthing the climate-driven off-season flowering in other tree species alluded the stimulation of phytohormones, such as gibberellic and salicylic acid concentrations influencing the flowering time, therefore, needs further investigation in case of P. deltoides. Overall, this work provides early clues of changing climatic scenario altering the flowering pattern of a tropical forestry tree species.}, }
@article {pmid32415221, year = {2020}, author = {Schreiner-McGraw, AP and Vivoni, ER and Ajami, H and Sala, OE and Throop, HL and Peters, DPC}, title = {Woody Plant Encroachment has a Larger Impact than Climate Change on Dryland Water Budgets.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {8112}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-65094-x}, pmid = {32415221}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Woody plant encroachment (WPE) into grasslands is a global phenomenon that is associated with land degradation via xerification, which replaces grasses with shrubs and bare soil patches. It remains uncertain how the global processes of WPE and climate change may combine to impact water availability for ecosystems. Using a process-based model constrained by watershed observations, our results suggest that both xerification and climate change augment groundwater recharge by increasing channel transmission losses at the expense of plant available water. Conversion from grasslands to shrublands without creating additional bare soil, however, reduces transmission losses. Model simulations considering both WPE and climate change are used to assess their relative roles in a late 21st century condition. Results indicate that changes in focused channel recharge are determined primarily by the WPE pathway. As a result, WPE should be given consideration when assessing the vulnerability of groundwater aquifers to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32411511, year = {2020}, author = {Cuena-Lombraña, A and Porceddu, M and Dettori, CA and Bacchetta, G}, title = {Predicting the consequences of global warming on Gentiana lutea germination at the edge of its distributional and ecological range.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {e8894}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.8894}, pmid = {32411511}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background: Temperature is the main environmental factor controlling seed germination; it determines both the percentage and the rate of germination. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global mean surface temperature could increase of approximately 2-4 °C by 2090-2099. As a consequence of global warming, the period of snow cover is decreasing on several mountain areas. Thermal time approach can be used to characterise the seed germination of plants and to evaluate the germination behaviour under the climate change scenarios. In this study, the effect of different cold stratification periods on seed dormancy release and germination of Gentiana lutea subsp. lutea, a taxon listed in Annex V of the Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC), was evaluated. Furthermore, the thermal requirements and the consequences of the temperature rise for seed germination of this species were estimated. In addition, a conceptual representation of the thermal time approach is presented.<br><br>Methods: Seeds of G. lutea subsp. lutea were harvested from at least 50 randomly selected plants in two representative localities of the Gennargentu massif (Sardinia). Germination tests were carried out under laboratory conditions and the responses at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 °C were recorded. Different cold stratification pre-treatments at 1 ± 1 °C (i.e. 0, 15, 30, 60 and 90 days) were applied. Successively, the base temperature (Tb) and the number of thermal units (θ, °Cd) for germination were estimated. Additionally, this study examined the consequences of an increase in temperatures based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RPC) scenarios.<br><br>Results: The results indicated that from 0 to 30 days of cold stratification, the germination was null or very low. After 60 and 90 days of cold stratification the seed dormancy was removed; however, 25 and 30 °C negatively affected the germination capacity of non-dormant seeds. Seeds cold-stratified for 90 days showed a lower Tb than those stratified for 60 days. However, 60 and 90 days of cold stratification did not cause great variations in the thermal time units. Analysing the RPC scenarios, we detected that the number of days useful for dormancy release of seeds of G. lutea may be less than 30 days, a condition that does not permit an effective dormancy release.<br><br>Conclusions: We conclude that seeds of G. lutea need at least 60 days of cold stratification to remove dormancy and promote the germination. The thermal time model developed in this work allowed us to identify the thermal threshold requirements of seed germination of this species, increasing the knowledge of a plant threatened by global warming. Our results emphasise the need for further studies aiming at a better characterisation of germination efficiency, especially for species that require cold stratification. This would improve the knowledge on the germination mechanisms of adaptation to different future global warming conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32411508, year = {2020}, author = {Egbebiyi, TS and Crespo, O and Lennard, C and Zaroug, M and Nikulin, G and Harris, I and Price, J and Forstenhäusler, N and Warren, R}, title = {Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {e8851}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.8851}, pmid = {32411508}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {West African rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Global warming is projected to result in higher regional warming and have a strong impact on agriculture. This study specifically examines the impact of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5°, 2° and 3 °C relative to 1971-2000 on crop suitability over West Africa. We used 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 Global Climate Models (CMIP5 GCMs) downscaled by Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Rossby Centre's regional Atmospheric model version 4, RCA4, to drive Ecocrop, a crop suitability model, for pearl millet, cassava, groundnut, cowpea, maize and plantain. The results show Ecocrop simulated crop suitability spatial representation with higher suitability, observed to the south of latitude 14°N and lower suitability to its north for 1971-2000 for all crops except for plantain (12°N). The model also simulates the best three planting months within the growing season from September-August over the past climate. Projected changes in crop suitability under the three GWLs 1.5-3.0 °C suggest a spatial suitability expansion for legume and cereal crops, notably in the central southern Sahel zone; root and tuber and plantain in the central Guinea-Savanna zone. In contrast, projected decreases in the crop suitability index value are predicted to the south of 14°N for cereals, root and tuber crops; nevertheless, the areas remain suitable for the crops. A delay of between 1-3 months is projected over the region during the planting month under the three GWLs for legumes, pearl millet and plantain. A two month delay in planting is projected in the south, notably over the Guinea and central Savanna zone with earlier planting of about three months in the Savanna-Sahel zones. The effect of GWL2.0 and GWL3.0 warming in comparison to GWL1.5 °C are more dramatic on cereals and root and tuber crops, especially cassava. All the projected changes in simulated crop suitability in response to climatic variables are statistically significant at 99% confidence level. There is also an increasing trend in the projected crop suitability change across the three warming except for cowpea. This study has implications for improving the resilience of crop production to climate changes, and more broadly, to food security in West Africa.}, }
@article {pmid32409761, year = {2019}, author = {Morton, A}, title = {How Australia's election will decide its role in climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-01543-6}, pmid = {32409761}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32408439, year = {2020}, author = {Costa, S and Coppola, F and Pretti, C and Intorre, L and Meucci, V and Soares, AMVM and Solé, M and Freitas, R}, title = {Biochemical and physiological responses of two clam species to Triclosan combined with climate change scenario.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {724}, number = {}, pages = {138143}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138143}, pmid = {32408439}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Ocean acidification and warming are among the man-induced factors that most likely impact aquatic wildlife worldwide. Besides effects caused by temperature rise and lowered pH conditions, chemicals of current use can also adversely affect aquatic organisms. Both climate change and emerging pollutants, including toxic impacts in marine invertebrates, have been investigated in recent years. However, less information is available on the combined effects of these physical and chemical stressors that, in nature, occur simultaneously. Thus, this study contrasts the effects caused by the antimicrobial agent and plastic additive, Triclosan (TCS) in the related clams Ruditapes philippinarum (invasive) and Ruditapes decussatus (native) and evaluates if the impacts are influenced by combined temperature and pH modifications. Organisms were acclimated for 30 days at two conditions (control: 17 °C; pH 8.1 and climate change scenario: 21 °C, pH 7.7) in the absence of the drug (experimental period I) followed by a 7 days exposure under the same water physical parameters but either in absence (unexposed) or presence of TCS at 1 μg/L (experimental period II). Biochemical responses covering metabolic, oxidative defences and damage-related biomarkers were contrasted in clams at the end of experimental period II. The overall picture showed a well-marked antioxidant activation and higher TCS bioaccumulation of the drug under the forecasted climate scenario despite a reduction on respiration rate and unaltered metabolism in the exposed clams. Since clams are highly consumed shellfish, the consequences for higher tissue bioaccumulation of anthropogenic chemicals to final consumers should be alerted not only at present conditions but more significantly under predicted climatic conditions for humans but also for other components of the marine trophic chain.}, }
@article {pmid32404663, year = {2020}, author = {Ewbank, C and Stewart, B and Bruns, B and Deckelbaum, D and Gologorsky, R and Groen, R and Gupta, S and Harris, MJ and Godfrey, R and Leppäniemi, A and Malone, DL and Newton, C and Traynor, MD and Wong, EG and Kushner, AL}, title = {The Development of a Surgical Care and Climate Change Matrix: A Tool to Assist With Prioritization and Implementation Strategies.}, journal = {Annals of surgery}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/SLA.0000000000003980}, pmid = {32404663}, issn = {1528-1140}, }
@article {pmid32399720, year = {2020}, author = {Bein, T and Karagiannidis, C and Gründling, M and Quintel, M}, title = {[New challenges for intensive care medicine due to climate change and global warming].}, journal = {Der Anaesthesist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00101-020-00783-w}, pmid = {32399720}, issn = {1432-055X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In the last five decades a continuous increase in the average global temperature has been recorded. Furthermore, natural disasters (e.g. heat waves, severe storms, floods and large forest fires) are becoming more frequent. The impact of global warming and climate change on health involves an increase in respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and cognitive mental diseases. Furthermore, a change in the frequency and patterns of infectious diseases can also be observed in Europe.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: This article presents the most important studies that investigated diseases associated with the climate change, with special reference to those that represent a challenge for intensive care medicine.<br><br>RESULTS: Currently available epidemiological data and statistical extrapolations indicate that diseases resulting from the climate change (acute infection-related respiratory and intestinal diseases, exacerbation of pre-existing pulmonary lesions, heat-related dehydration, cerebral insults and myocardial infarction) are relevant for intensive care medicine. Particular emphasis is placed on a significant increase in acute kidney damage during heat waves. A previously unknown pattern of infectious diseases necessitates new knowledge and targeted management. In some studies, persisting mental impairments were registered during heat waves and natural disasters, e.g. posttraumatic stress disorder.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Intensive care medicine must be prepared for the challenges due to global warming and climate change. Slow but continuous changes (e.g. rise in temperature) as well as acute changes (e.g. heat waves and natural disasters) will induce an increased need for intensive medical care services (e.g. an increase in the need for renal replacement procedures). Intensive care physicians will need to be familiar with the diagnostics and management of diseases associated with the climate change. An initiative of the specialist societies involved would be welcomed.}, }
@article {pmid32399247, year = {2020}, author = {Mousavi, A and Ardalan, A and Takian, A and Ostadtaghizadeh, A and Naddafi, K and Bavani, AM}, title = {Climate change and health in Iran: a narrative review.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health science &amp; engineering}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {367-378}, doi = {10.1007/s40201-020-00462-3}, pmid = {32399247}, issn = {2052-336X}, abstract = {Background: The consequences of climate change are highly impeding the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) anywhere, especially in low and middle-income countries. While climate change scales up, its health-related risks increase, which in turn leads to cause new challenges for public health. As a second largest country of the Eastern Mediterranean Region of World Health Organization, Iran is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.<br><br>Purpose: This study seeks the notion of health risks and challenges of climate change in Iran and provide potential evidence-based remedies to prevent and diminish such destructive effects.<br><br>Methods: A comprehensive literature in various computerized databases was conducted, and numerous published original research and review articles about climate change status and evidences of adverse health consequences of climate change in Iran were reviewed.<br><br>Results: The evidence suggests that the expected health challenges related to climate change in Iran are: rising temperatures; frequent extreme weather events; reduction of air quality; food-borne, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases; mental health and well-being consequences; and the increasing trend of natural disasters and deaths associated with climatological hazards.<br><br>Conclusions: By considering the growing burden of diseases associated with climate variability in Iran as well as the interdisciplinary nature of climate change and health issues, an integrated, multi-sectoral, and comprehensive approach for identification, prioritization, and implementation of adaptation options is required by Ministry of Health and Medical Education as a custodian of public health in order to enhance the resiliency and adaption against adverse health effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32398194, year = {2020}, author = {Denholm, J}, title = {Seasonality, climate change and tuberculosis: new data and old lessons.}, journal = {The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease}, volume = {24}, number = {5}, pages = {469}, doi = {10.5588/ijtld.20.0088}, pmid = {32398194}, issn = {1815-7920}, }
@article {pmid32393851, year = {2020}, author = {Grünig, M and Mazzi, D and Calanca, P and Karger, DN and Pellissier, L}, title = {Crop and forest pest metawebs shift towards increased linkage and suitability overlap under climate change.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {233}, doi = {10.1038/s42003-020-0962-9}, pmid = {32393851}, issn = {2399-3642}, abstract = {Global changes pose both risks and opportunities to agriculture and forestry, and biological forecasts can inform future management strategies. Here, we investigate potential land-use opportunities arising from climate change for these sectors in Europe, and risks associated with the introduction and establishment of novel insect pests. Adopting a metaweb approach including all interaction links between 126 crops and forest tree species and 89 black-listed insect pest species, we show that the metawebs shift toward increased numbers of links and overlap of suitable area under climate change. Decomposing the metaweb across regions shows large saturation in southern Europe, while many novel interactions are expected for northern Europe. In light of the rising consumer awareness about human health and environmental impacts of food and wood production, the challenge will be to effectively exploit new opportunities to create diverse local agriculture and forestry while controlling pest species and reducing risks from pesticide use.}, }
@article {pmid32393774, year = {2020}, author = {Alexander, M}, title = {Pandemics, climate change, and disability related to SCI.}, journal = {Spinal cord series and cases}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {36}, doi = {10.1038/s41394-020-0285-6}, pmid = {32393774}, issn = {2058-6124}, }
@article {pmid32392673, year = {2020}, author = {Lorenzo, MN and Alvarez, I}, title = {Climate change patterns in precipitation over Spain using CORDEX projections for 2021-2050.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {723}, number = {}, pages = {138024}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138024}, pmid = {32392673}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This work presents an analysis of the climate change scenarios in some extreme precipitation indices over Spain using simulations from the EURO-CORDEX project. Change projections of precipitation are evaluated for the near future (2021-2050) relatively to a reference past climate (1971-2000). Projections of annual precipitation show a general decrease in almost the whole region except over the central area where positive changes are detected due to a significant increase in winter. For consecutive wet days, an annual decrease is also projected over the country attributable to a significant decrease mainly observed in spring and to a lesser extent in winter. On the other hand, consecutive dry days are projected to be higher overall as a result of significant increases in spring, summer and autumn. Positive changes are also projected for the maximum daily precipitation during winter and autumn.}, }
@article {pmid32392150, year = {2020}, author = {Adedoyin, F and Ozturk, I and Abubakar, I and Kumeka, T and Folarin, O and Bekun, FV}, title = {Structural breaks in CO2 emissions: Are they caused by climate change protests or other factors?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {266}, number = {}, pages = {110628}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110628}, pmid = {32392150}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {In recent times, there has been increase in climate change protest across the globe. However, whether decrease in emissions is connected with climate change protest or not is yet to be documented in the literature. Consequently, the aim of this study is to fill this gap by examining ex-post detection of how climate change protests and its interconnectedness with CO2 emissions. Using the Bai and Perron (1998) structural break test, we estimate the number of breaks as well as the date of such structural breaks in CO2 emissions series for 41 countries. Our aim is to match the date of the climate change protests to those of the structural breaks. We observe that climate change protests are fairly consistent with the dates of breaks in Europe and Asia, but not in BRICS economies or US, Canada and other countries. Therefore, this method allows us to solve a gap in the energy industry related to the modelling and correct allocation of positive shocks in CO2 emissions to climate change protests.}, }
@article {pmid32390204, year = {2020}, author = {O'Kane, G}, title = {Climate change and rural health.}, journal = {The Australian journal of rural health}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {186}, doi = {10.1111/ajr.12614}, pmid = {32390204}, issn = {1440-1584}, }
@article {pmid32390197, year = {2020}, author = {Jones, M and Mills, D and Gray, R}, title = {Expecting the unexpected? Improving rural health in the era of bushfires, novel coronavirus and climate change.}, journal = {The Australian journal of rural health}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {107-109}, doi = {10.1111/ajr.12623}, pmid = {32390197}, issn = {1440-1584}, }
@article {pmid32388556, year = {2020}, author = {Dominguez-Rodriguez, A and Rodríguez, S and Hernández-Vaquero, D}, title = {Air pollution is intimately linked to global climate change: change in Cardiovascular Disease Statistics 2019.}, journal = {European heart journal}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa295}, pmid = {32388556}, issn = {1522-9645}, }
@article {pmid32387776, year = {2020}, author = {Santos, C and Imteaz, MA and Ghisi, E and Matos, C}, title = {The effect of climate change on domestic Rainwater Harvesting.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {729}, number = {}, pages = {138967}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138967}, pmid = {32387776}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {One of the main strategies that are being applied to improve the efficiency of water consumption in buildings is the use of non-potable water for pavement washing, toilet flushing, irrigation, and others. According to several guidelines, the design and assessment of a Rainwater Harvesting System (RWHS) should be made using recent official records of precipitation. However, there is not an indication whether historical or future projections should be used, leaving space for the designer to choose. This article presents the study of RWHS in southern Europe, namely in Portugal, considering two case studies (a dwelling in Oporto and an apartment in Vila Real). The main goal was to explore the impacts that climate change will have on these systems and, for that purpose, a daily simulation using future rainfall data was performed for both cases considering two scenarios: RCP 4.5 which is more optimistic, and RCP 8.5 which is more pessimistic. The RWHS in Oporto showed a better performance in the future decades, comparing with simulations based on recent decades, for both scenarios. However, the savings will not have a significant variation (less than 5 €/year). In the future, this system will provide around 47 (±2.4) m3 of rainwater per year to the selected non-potable purposes, leading to savings of around 66 (±3.3) €/year. Vila Real case study also revealed a slight improvement of the system's efficiency in the future decades but the results for rainwater collected and used are so similar to the recent ones that it can be concluded that the performance will be sustained. This system will provide around 50 (±2.5) m3 of rainwater per year to the selected non-potable purposes, leading to savings of around 200 (±10.2) €/year. It can be concluded that there will be no significant changes in RWHS performance in the future, in the studied areas.}, }
@article {pmid32387769, year = {2020}, author = {Pilecco, GE and Chantigny, MH and Weiler, DA and Aita, C and Thivierge, MN and Schmatz, R and Chaves, B and Giacomini, SJ}, title = {Greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential from biofuel cropping systems fertilized with mineral and organic nitrogen sources.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {729}, number = {}, pages = {138767}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138767}, pmid = {32387769}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Non-legume bioenergy crops can be fertilized with animal manures instead of mineral fertilizers, but the simultaneous application of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) with manures can increase nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. On the other hand, manure could increase soil organic C stocks and partly offset greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming potential (GWP) of crop systems. We performed a two-year study in a biofuel cropping system with sunflower and canola to examine the effects of manure fertilization on grain yields and N use efficiency of crops, and on GWP and GHG intensity (GHGI) in no-till soils under subtropical conditions. The GWP and GHGI were calculated from measured methane (CH4) and N2O emissions and soil organic C stock change, and from estimated carbon dioxide emissions associated with agricultural inputs and farm operations. The following treatments were tested: (i) mineral fertilizer (MF); (ii) poultry manure (PM); (iii) pig deep-litter (PDL); and (iv) no-N control. The application rate of each treatment was adjusted to provide 60 kg available N ha-1 to crops. Grain yield and N accumulated by sunflower and canola were greater in fertilized treatments than in the control, and did not differ among N sources. However, crop N use efficiency was on average 50% lower with manures than MF. CH4 emissions were not affected by N sources, but N2O emissions increased as follows: control (1.37) < MF (2.04) < PDL (4.12) < PM (4.95 kg N ha-1). On the other hand, soil organic C stocks increased more rapidly with manures than MF, resulting in significantly lower GWP and GHGI with manures than MF after two years. These results indicate that animal manures can replace MF as the main source of N to non-legume oil crops and reduce net GHG emissions in biofuel cropping systems under subtropical conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32386506, year = {2020}, author = {Ren, Z and Zagortchev, L and Ma, J and Yan, M and Li, J}, title = {Predicting the potential distribution of the parasitic Cuscuta chinensis under global warming.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {28}, doi = {10.1186/s12898-020-00295-6}, pmid = {32386506}, issn = {1472-6785}, support = {15-2//Inter-governmental S&amp;T Cooperation Proposal between Bulgaria and China/ ; DNTS China 01/5//National Science Fund of the Bulgarian Ministry of Education and Science/ ; 2019//Ten Thousand Talent Program of Zhejiang Province/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The climate is the dominant factor that affects the distribution of plants. Cuscuta chinensis is a stem holoparasitic plant without leaves or roots, which develops a haustorium and sucks nutrients from host plants. The potential distribution of the parasitic plant C. chinensis has not been predicted to date. This study used Maxent modeling to predict the potential global distribution of C. chinensis, based on the following six main bioclimatic variables: annual mean temperature, isothermality, temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter.<br><br>RESULTS: The optimal annual average temperature and isothermality of C. chinensis ranged from 4 to 37 °C and less than 45, respectively, while the optimal temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality ranged from 4000 to 25,000 and from 50 to 130, respectively. The optimal precipitation of the warmest season ranged from 300 to 1000 mm and from 2500 to 3500 mm, while that of the coldest season was less than 2000 mm. In Asia, C. chinensis is mainly distributed at latitudes ranging from 20° N to 50° N. During three specific historical periods (last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and 1960-1990) the habitats suitable for C. chinensis were concentrated in the central, northern, southern, and eastern parts of China. From the last glacial maximum to the mid-Holocene, the total area with suitability of 0.5-1 increased by 0.0875 million km2; however, from the mid-Holocene to 1960-1990, the total area with suitability of 0.5-1 decreased by 0.0759 million km2. The simulation results of habitat suitability in the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 (i.e., the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway) and 8.5 (i.e., the high greenhouse gas emissions pathway) indicate that the habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. Compared with RCP2.6, areas with averaged suitability and high suitability for survival (RCP8.5) decreased by 0.18 million km2.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Suitable habitats of C. chinensis are situated in central, northern, southern, and eastern China. The habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. These results provide a reference for the management and control of C. chinensis.}, }
@article {pmid32386209, year = {2020}, author = {Aydogan, EL and Budich, O and Hardt, M and Choi, YH and Jansen-Willems, AB and Moser, G and Müller, C and Kämpfer, P and Glaeser, SP}, title = {Global warming shifts the composition of the abundant bacterial phyllosphere microbiota as indicated by a cultivation dependent and independent study of the grassland phyllosphere of a long-term warming field-experiment.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsec/fiaa087}, pmid = {32386209}, issn = {1574-6941}, abstract = {The leaf colonizing bacterial microbiota was studied in a long-term warming experiment of a permanent grassland, which had been continuously exposed to increased surface temperate (+2°C) for more than six years. Two abundant plant species, Arrhenatherum elatius and Galium album, were studied. Surface warming reduced stomata opening and changed leaf metabolite profiles. Leaf surface colonization and the concentration of leaf-associated bacterial cells were not affected. However, bacterial 16S rRNA gene amplicon Illumina sequencing showed significant temperature effects on the plant species-specific phyllosphere microbiota. Warming partially affected the concentrations of cultured bacteria and had a significant effect on the composition of most abundant cultured plant species-specific bacteria. The abundance of Sphingomonas spp. was significantly reduced. Sphingomonas spp. isolates from warmed plots represented different phylotypes, had different physiological traits, and were better adapted to higher temperatures. Among Methylobacterium spp., a novel phylotype with a specific mxaF-type was cultured from plants of warmed plots while the most abundant phylotype cultured from control plots was strongly reduced. This study clearly showed a correlation of long-term surface warming with changes of the plant physiology and the development of a physiologically and genetically adapted phyllosphere microbiota.}, }
@article {pmid32385855, year = {2020}, author = {Coates, SJ and Andersen, LK and Boos, MD}, title = {Balancing public health and private wealth: lessons on climate inaction from the COVID-19 pandemic - a report from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.14917}, pmid = {32385855}, issn = {1365-4632}, support = {D43TW009343/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; /CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; /NH/NIH HHS/United States ; //University of California Global Health Institute (UCGHI)/ ; }, }
@article {pmid32385312, year = {2020}, author = {Leite, C and Oliveira, V and Miranda, I and Pereira, H}, title = {Cork oak and climate change: Disentangling drought effects on cork chemical composition.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {7800}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-64650-9}, pmid = {32385312}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change induces in the Mediterranean region more frequent and extreme events, namely, heat waves and droughts, disturbing forest species and affecting their productivity and product quality. The cork oak (Quercus suber) is present along the western Mediterranean basin and its outer bark (cork) is sustainably collected and used for several products, mainly wine bottle stoppers. Since most cork properties arise from its chemical composition, this research studies the effect of drought on cork chemical composition (suberin, lignin, polysaccharides and extractives) and on polysaccharide and suberin monomeric composition. Three sets of cork samples, from the same site, were examined: in one set the cork grew without drought; in another two drought events occurred during cork growth and in the third one drought event happened. The results show that, in general, drought does not affect the proportion of the main components of cork, the monomers of suberin or of polysaccharides, with few exceptions e.g. drought increased ethanol extractives and xylose in polysaccharides and decreased arabinose in polysaccharides. The variability associated to the tree is much more relevant than the effect of drought conditions and affects all the parameters analyzed. Therefore, our research suggests that the tree genetic information, or its expression, plays a much more important role on the chemical composition of cork than the drought conditions occurring during cork growth. In practical terms, the potential increased occurrence of droughts arising from climatic changes will not compromise the performance of cork as a sealant for wine bottles.}, }
@article {pmid32384901, year = {2020}, author = {Sweileh, WM}, title = {Bibliometric analysis of peer-reviewed literature on climate change and human health with an emphasis on infectious diseases.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {44}, doi = {10.1186/s12992-020-00576-1}, pmid = {32384901}, issn = {1744-8603}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Assessing research activity is important for planning future protective and adaptive policies. The objective of the current study was to assess research activity on climate change and health with an emphasis on infectious diseases.<br><br>METHOD: A bibliometric method was applied using SciVerse Scopus. Documents on climate change and human health were called &quot;health-related literature&quot; while documents on climate change and infectious diseases were called &quot;infection-related literature&quot;. The study period was from 1980 to 2019.<br><br>RESULTS: The search query found 4247 documents in the health-related literature and 1207 in the infection-related literature. The growth of publications showed a steep increase after 2007. There were four research themes in the health-related literature: (1) climate change and infectious diseases; (2) climate change, public health and food security; (3) heat waves, mortality, and non-communicable diseases; and (4) climate change, air pollution, allergy, and respiratory health. The most frequently encountered pathogens/infectious diseases in the infection-related literature were malaria and dengue. Documents in infection-related literature had a higher h-index than documents in the health-related literature. The top-cited documents in the health-related literature focused on food security, public health, and infectious diseases while those in infection-related literature focused on water-, vector-, and mosquito-borne diseases. The European region had the highest contribution in health-related literature (n = 1626; 38.3%) and infection-related literature (n = 497; 41.2%). The USA led with 1235 (29.1%) documents in health-related literature and 365 (30.2%) documents in infection-related literature. The Australian National University ranked first in the health-related literature while the London School of Hygiene &amp; Tropical Medicine ranked first in the infection-related literature. International research collaboration was inadequate. Documents published in the Environmental Health Perspectives journal received the highest citations per document. A total of 1416 (33.3%) documents in the health-related literature were funded while 419 (34.7%) documents in the infection-related literature were funded.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Research on climate change and human health is on the rise with research on infection-related issues making a good share. International research collaboration should be funded and supported. Future research needs to focus on the impact of climate change on psychosocial, mental, innovations, policies, and preparedness of health systems.}, }
@article {pmid32384124, year = {2020}, author = {Prevéy, JS and Parker, LE and Harrington, CA}, title = {Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e0232537}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0232537}, pmid = {32384124}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change is shifting both the habitat suitability and the timing of critical biological events, such as flowering and fruiting, for plant species across the globe. Here, we ask how both the distribution and phenology of three food-producing shrubs native to northwestern North America might shift as the climate changes. To address this question, we compared gridded climate data with species location data to identify climate variables that best predicted the current bioclimatic niches of beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta), Oregon grape (Mahonia aquifolium), and salal (Gaultheria shallon). We also developed thermal-sum models for the timing of flowering and fruit ripening for these species. We then used multi-model ensemble future climate projections to estimate how species range and phenology may change under future conditions. Modelling efforts showed extreme minimum temperature, climate moisture deficit, and mean summer precipitation were predictive of climatic suitability across all three species. Future bioclimatic niche models project substantial reductions in habitat suitability across the lower elevation and southern portions of the species' current ranges by the end of the 21st century. Thermal-sum phenology models for these species indicate that flowering and the ripening of fruits and nuts will advance an average of 25 days by the mid-21st century, and 36 days by the late-21st century under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Future changes in the climatic niche and phenology of these important food-producing species may alter trophic relationships, with cascading impacts on regional ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid32382016, year = {2020}, author = {Byers, EA and Coxon, G and Freer, J and Hall, JW}, title = {Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2239}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-16012-2}, pmid = {32382016}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain's power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days (p99), almost 50% (7GWe) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from £29-66m.yr-1 GBP2018, whilst in 20% of cases from £66-95m.yr-1. With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds £100m.yr-1. The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >£200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1st-order economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts.}, }
@article {pmid32380633, year = {2019}, author = {Shi, X and Sun, L and Chen, X and Wang, L}, title = {Farmers' perceived efficacy of adaptive behaviors to climate change in the Loess Plateau, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {697}, number = {}, pages = {134217}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134217}, pmid = {32380633}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The impact of climate change is very significant to farmers who depend on natural resources for livelihood. It is essential to have a better understanding of farmers' assessments of the efficacy of adaptive behaviors for formulating appropriate adaptation policies and improving farmers' ability to adapt to climate change. Based on survey data from interviews with farmers in the Loess Plateau, the features of farmers' perceived adaptation efficacy are analyzed. Three multiple linear regression models are used to analyze farmers' perceived efficacy of adaptive behaviors and identify factors influencing those assessments in terms of farmers' demographical and social factors, their perception of climate change, their perception of climate change effects and the average temperature and precipitation from 2005 to 2015 in this area. The results are as follows: (1) Generally, the adaptive behaviors with high perceived adaptation efficacy were used by most respondents. Measures with relatively low perceived adaptation efficacy were not commonly adopted, such as migration, buying insurance, changing planting and harvesting time. (2) The factors affect the perceived efficacy of adaption behavior in decreasing order are as follows: perception of climate change, the average precipitation, and demographical and social factors. Perception of local natural disasters, perception of planting and harvesting time, crop yield and diseases and insect pests caused by climate change were found to affect farmers' adaptation assessments. The key demographical and social factors influencing farmers' assessments were non-farming income, farming income, farmland quantity, gender, the frequency of watching TV and going to the market.}, }
@article {pmid32374789, year = {2020}, author = {Shi, W and Jiang, H and Mao, X and Xu, H}, title = {Pollen record of climate change during the last deglaciation from the eastern Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e0232803}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0232803}, pmid = {32374789}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a climatically sensitive area affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). A new pollen record from a lacustrine sediment in Mao County shows that the study area was covered mainly by shrubs and herbs during the last deglaciation, indicating open and sparse forest grasslands. Hydrophilous herbs were mainly dominated by Cyperaceae, Poaceae, Myriophyllum, Polygonum and Typha, and they gradually increased from 18.7 to 16.8 ka, suggesting a transition to a more humid climate. This corresponds to climate cooling over the same period. From 16.8 to 14.6 ka, hydrophilous herbs continued to increase, coincident with a general ameliorating trend indicated by δ18O records from East Asia. Between 14.6 and 14.0 ka, the mean content of hydrophilous herbs reached peak in the sequence, corresponding to relatively high δ18O values during this period. From ~14.0 to 12.9 ka, the abundance of hydrophilous herbs decreased significantly. Over the same period, the Greenland ice core shows a decrease in δ18O and low-latitude cave stalagmites in China record an increase in δ18O. This implies that longitudinal temperature gradients increased and drove the southward retreat of the ISM, which in turn drove a continuous decrease in the abundance of hydrophilous herbs in the study area. From 12.9 to 11.6 ka, the mean content of hydrophilous herbs decreased to the lowest (8.3%) in the whole sequence, indicating a cold and dry climate in the study area. A positive shift in δ18O records during 11.6-10.6 ka was matched by a significant increase in the abundance of hydrophilous herbs in the study area, indicating a warm and humid climate trending. Hence, the ISM has had a significant impact on the climate of the eastern TP since the onset of deglaciation around ~16.8 ka.}, }
@article {pmid32374105, year = {2020}, author = {Pasini, A}, title = {[Detection and attribution of the recent global warming: state of the art].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {9-10}, doi = {10.19191/EP20.1.P009.008}, pmid = {32374105}, issn = {1120-9763}, }
@article {pmid32373748, year = {2020}, author = {Marie, M and Yirga, F and Haile, M and Tquabo, F}, title = {Farmers' choices and factors affecting adoption of climate change adaptation strategies: evidence from northwestern Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {e03867}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e03867}, pmid = {32373748}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change is a major environmental and socioeconomic challenge in Ethiopia in recent decades. The study site is one of the climate change prone areas affected by climate variability and extreme events. Therefore, a better understanding of area-specific and adaptation is crucial to develop and implement proper adaptation strategies that can alleviate the adverse effects of climate change. Therefore, this work was aimed to identify determinants of farmers' adoption of climate change adaptation strategies in Gondar Zuria District of northwestern Ethiopia. Primary data were collected through semi-structured questionnaires, observation, and interviews. Besides, the secondary data were also obtained from journal articles, reports, governmental offices, and the internet. The Multinomial and Binary logistic regression models with the help of the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) (21th edition) were used to analyze the data. The multinomial logistic regression model was used to estimate the influence of the socioeconomic characteristics of sample households on the farmer's decision to choose climate change adaptation strategies. The result showed that age, gender, family size, farm income, and farm size had a significant influence on the farmers' choice of climate change adaptation strategies. The result also revealed that crop failure, severe soil erosion and shortages of water are major climate change-related problems than others. In order to alleviate these problems, farmers have implemented mixed farming, mixed cropping, early and late planting (changing sowing period), use of drought-resistant crop varieties, application of soil and water conservation techniques, shifting to non-farm income activities and use of irrigation. In contrast, access to climate information, total annual farm income, and market access variables are significant adoption determinants of climate change adaptation strategies by farmers' in the study site. Therefore, we recommend future adaptation-related plans should focus on improving climate change information access, improving market access and enhancing research on the use of rainwater harvesting technology.}, }
@article {pmid32372355, year = {2020}, author = {Cheng, B and Li, H}, title = {Impact of climate change and human activities on economic values produced by ecosystem service functions of rivers in water shortage area of Northwest China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08963-2}, pmid = {32372355}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {Grant No.51939009//National Natural Science Foundation of China (Key Program)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change and human activities are affecting the ecological health of rivers and the economic value of its ecosystem services. Taking water quantity as the intermediate variable, we proposed a quantitative calculation method for the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers. The framework mainly consists of three steps: firstly, we quantitatively determined the changes in the amount of water coming from rivers due to climate change and human activities; secondly, combining the theory of resource and environmental economics to calculate the economic value generated by ecological service functions of rivers; finally, we quantitatively identified and analyzed the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers. Taking Baoji section of Weihe River (BSWR) as an example, we quantitatively analyzed and calculated the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by ecosystem service functions of rivers. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: in recent 52 years, the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers decreased by 3.57 billion yuan due to the climate change and human activities; the total economic value has been reduced by an average of 68 million yuan per year. This useful work can not only reveal the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value of ecosystem services of rivers but also can provide an important basis for the reasonable management model of water resource of ecosystem of rivers watershed.}, }
@article {pmid32371277, year = {2020}, author = {Grefalda, LB and Pulhin, JM and Tapia, MA and Anacio, DB and De Luna, CC and Sabino, LL and Garcia, JE and Peria, AS and Peras, RJJ and Gevaña, DT and Inoue, M}, title = {Building institutional resilience in the context of climate change in Aurora, Philippines.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {186}, number = {}, pages = {109584}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109584}, pmid = {32371277}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {The role of local government units (LGUs) in disaster resilience is crucial for a hazard-prone country such as the Philippines. Although the country has its own institutional framework on disaster risk reduction, a number of issues limit LGUs' potential to perform its role. This study focused on building institutional resilience of LGUs towards building climate risk resilience in Aurora, Philippines by engaging key actors in the formulation of Local Climate Change Action Plans (LCCAP). The study adopted the shared learning process from the Climate Resilience Framework (CRF) to strengthen partnership and implement capacity building activities, aimed at developing the Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA) and LCCAP beyond compliance. An institutional capacity assessment was administered through a survey involving 87 members of the Technical Working Group (TWG) from eight municipalities and provincial government. Institutional capacity was measured using 70 indicators representing access rights and entitlements, information flows, decision-making processes, application of new knowledge, capacity to anticipate risk, capacity to respond, as well as capacity to recover and change. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Both Spearman Correlation and Cramer's V determined the interrelationship between socio-demographic variables and institutional characteristics. Results revealed that the LGUs performed better in risk response and management. A strong correlation between expertise and position vis-à-vis all resilient institution metrics was also observed, while gender is moderately correlated with all parameters except access rights and entitlements. Three key areas, not adequately articulated in current literature, need to be improved to enhance institutional resilience towards climate and disaster risks, namely: staffing and human resource; access to financial support from other sources; and development of knowledge management systems.}, }
@article {pmid32369490, year = {2020}, author = {García-Gómez, JC and González, AR and Maestre, MJ and Espinosa, F}, title = {Detect coastal disturbances and climate change effects in coralligenous community through sentinel stations.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e0231641}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0231641}, pmid = {32369490}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {This study was implemented to assess the Sessile Bioindicators in Permanent Quadrats (SBPQ) underwater environmental alert method. The SBPQ is a non-invasive and low-cost protocol; it uses sessile target species (indicators) to detect environmental alterations (natural or anthropic) at either the local or global (i.e., climate change) scale and the intrusion of invasive species. The SBPQ focuses on the monitoring of preselected sessile and sensitive benthic species associated with rocky coralligenous habitats using permanent quadrats in underwater sentinel stations. The selected target species have been well documented as bioindicators that disappear in the absence of environmental stability. However, whether these species are good indicators of stability or, in contrast, suffer variations in long-term coverage has not been verified. The purpose of this study was to assess the part of the method based on the hypothesis that, over a long temporal series in a highly structured and biodiverse coralligenous assemblage, the cover of sensitive sessile species does not change over time if the environmental stability characterising the habitat is not altered. Over a ten-year period (2005-2014), the sublittoral sessile biota in the Straits of Gibraltar Natural Park on the southern Iberian Peninsula was monitored at a 28 m-deep underwater sentinel stations. Analyses of the coverages of target indicator species (i.e., Paramuricea clavata and Astroides calycularis) together with other accompanying sessile organisms based on the periodic superimposition of gridded images from horizontal and vertical rocky surfaces allowed us to assess the effectiveness of the method. We conclude that no alterations occurred during the study period; only minimal fluctuations in cover were detected, and the method is reliable for detecting biological changes in ecosystems found in other geographical areas containing the chosen indicator species at similar dominance levels.}, }
@article {pmid32368509, year = {2020}, author = {Cradock-Henry, NA and Connolly, J and Blackett, P and Lawrence, J}, title = {Elaborating a systems methodology for cascading climate change impacts and implications.}, journal = {MethodsX}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {100893}, doi = {10.1016/j.mex.2020.100893}, pmid = {32368509}, issn = {2215-0161}, abstract = {New research is drawing attention to the potential for climate change to generate cascading impacts and implications across linked human-environment systems, requiring closer accounting of these interactions to anticipate the emergence of surprises and feedbacks. However, there is little practical guidance for those interested in characterising, identifying or assessing cascades, and few empirical examples. In this paper, we elaborate a systems-based methodology to identify and evaluate cascading climate change impacts and implications. We illustrate its application using the case of a participatory process with urban infrastructure managers, facing the legacy effects of damaging earthquakes and the prospect of future climate change. The results show the proposed approach and visualisation of cascades as causal diagrams provides a robust and flexible analytical framework. The use of systems thinking, visual aids, interactive discussion and expert elicitation generated valuable information about potential cascades, their interactions across domains of interest, and the implications for management. The process can provide a basis for further empirical application and advance methodological and conceptual development. Specifically, the systems methodology:•Identifies interdependencies and interconnections which may serve as transmission pathways for climate-related impacts;•Enhanced stakeholders' understanding of multiple causes and effects of climate change; and•Produced a useful visual aid for stakeholders to explore cascading impacts and implications, and opportunities for intervention.}, }
@article {pmid32367239, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, C and Jin, J and Kuang, F and Ning, J and Wan, X and Guan, T}, title = {Farmers' perceptions of climate change and adaptation behavior in Wushen Banner, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09048-w}, pmid = {32367239}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {41671170//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {A better understanding of farmers' perceptions of and responses to climate change is important for decision-makers to design more effective adaptation policies. This study investigates farmers' perceptions of climate change, actual adaption responses at the farm level, and factors influencing farmers' decisions on climate change adaptation in Wushen Banner, China. A questionnaire survey was conducted among 220 farmers with a random sampling technique. We found that farmers were generally concerned about climate change. Most farmers have adopted adaption measures to address the adverse effects of climate change. Adjusting farming behavior and using financial means were the main adaptation measures used by local farmers. The results revealed that the implementation of adaptation measures was constrained by the lack of technology, shortage of money, and poor infrastructure. The binary logistic regression results showed that farmers' socioeconomic characteristics, such as education, farming experience, and gender, had significant impacts on farmers' decisions to choose adaptation strategies. The regression results also indicated that farmers who believed climate change would affect their health were more willing to choose financial instruments, and farmers who believed climate change would affect their agricultural productions were likely to diversify their livelihoods. The findings provide some critical insights based on local perceptions of climate change and enhance our understanding of cognitive beliefs attached to adaptive responses.}, }
@article {pmid32366920, year = {2020}, author = {Louppe, V and Leroy, B and Herrel, A and Veron, G}, title = {The globally invasive small Indian mongoose Urva auropunctata is likely to spread with climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {7461}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-64502-6}, pmid = {32366920}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Invasive alien species represent one of the major factors of global loss of biodiversity and disruption of natural ecosystems. The small Indian mongoose, Urva auropunctata, is considered one of the wild carnivore species with the greatest negative impact on global biodiversity. Understanding of the factors underpinning the species' distribution and potential dispersion in a context of climate change thus appears crucial in the conservation of native ecosystems. Here we modelled the current and future climatically favourable areas for the small Indian mongoose using Ecological Niche Modelling based on data sets filtrated in environmental spaces. Projections from these models show extensive current favourable geographical areas, covering continental and insular regions within tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. Moreover, predictions for 2050 reveal that climate change is likely to expand current favourable areas north of the current favourable spaces, particularly in Eastern Europe. This climate-induced expansion is particularly worrisome given that the species is already spreading in the Balkan region. Our projections suggest that it is very likely that the small Indian mongoose will have an increasing influence on ecosystems and biodiversity in Europe by 2050.}, }
@article {pmid32362760, year = {2009}, author = {Lee, DS and Fahey, DW and Forster, PM and Newton, PJ and Wit, RCN and Lim, LL and Owen, B and Sausen, R}, title = {Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century.}, journal = {Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)}, volume = {43}, number = {22}, pages = {3520-3537}, doi = {10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.04.024}, pmid = {32362760}, issn = {1352-2310}, abstract = {Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NO x), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr-1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000-2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ∼55 mW m-2 (23-87 mW m-2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3-10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005-78 mW m-2 (38-139 mW m-2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2-14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7-3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0-4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4-4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO2 emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.}, }
@article {pmid32364720, year = {2020}, author = {Bidleman, TF and Andersson, A and Haglund, P and Tysklind, M}, title = {Will climate change influence production and environmental pathways of halogenated natural products?.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b07709}, pmid = {32364720}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Thousands of halogenated natural products (HNPs) pervade the terrestrial and marine environment. HNPs are generated by biotic and abiotic processes and range in complexity from low molecular mass natural halocarbons (nHCs, mostly halomethanes and haloethanes) to compounds of higher molecular mass which often contain oxygen and/or nitrogen atoms in addition to halogens (hHNPs). nHCs have a key role in regulating tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, while some hHNPs bioaccumulate and have toxic properties similar those of anthropogenic persistent organic pollutants (CEACs). Both chemical classes have common sources: biosynthesis by marine bacteria, phytoplankton, macroalgae and some invertebrate animals, and both may be similarly impacted by alteration of production and transport pathways in a changing climate. The nHCs scientific community is advanced in investigating sources, atmospheric and oceanic transport, and forecasting climate change impacts through modeling. By contrast, these activities are nascent or non-existent for hHNPs. Goals of this paper are to: 1. Review production, sources, distribution and transport pathways of nHCs and hHNPs through water and air, pointing out areas of commonality. 2. By analogy to nHCs, argue that climate change may alter these factors for hHNPs. 3. Suggest steps to improve linkage between nHCs and hHNPs science to better understand and predict climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid32364555, year = {2020}, author = {Bernhard, GH and Neale, RE and Barnes, PW and Neale, PJ and Zepp, RG and Wilson, SR and Andrady, AL and Bais, AF and McKenzie, RL and Aucamp, PJ and Young, PJ and Liley, JB and Lucas, RM and Yazar, S and Rhodes, LE and Byrne, SN and Hollestein, LM and Olsen, CM and Young, AR and Robson, TM and Bornman, JF and Jansen, MAK and Robinson, SA and Ballaré, CL and Williamson, CE and Rose, KC and Banaszak, AT and Häder, DP and Hylander, S and Wängberg, SÅ and Austin, AT and Hou, WC and Paul, ND and Madronich, S and Sulzberger, B and Solomon, KR and Li, H and Schikowski, T and Longstreth, J and Pandey, KK and Heikkilä, AM and White, CC}, title = {Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2019.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1039/d0pp90011g}, pmid = {32364555}, issn = {1474-9092}, abstract = {This assessment, by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), one of three Panels informing the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, provides an update, since our previous extensive assessment (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2019, 18, 595-828), of recent findings of current and projected interactive environmental effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation, stratospheric ozone, and climate change. These effects include those on human health, air quality, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and materials used in construction and other services. The present update evaluates further evidence of the consequences of human activity on climate change that are altering the exposure of organisms and ecosystems to UV radiation. This in turn reveals the interactive effects of many climate change factors with UV radiation that have implications for the atmosphere, feedbacks, contaminant fate and transport, organismal responses, and many outdoor materials including plastics, wood, and fabrics. The universal ratification of the Montreal Protocol, signed by 197 countries, has led to the regulation and phase-out of chemicals that deplete the stratospheric ozone layer. Although this treaty has had unprecedented success in protecting the ozone layer, and hence all life on Earth from damaging UV radiation, it is also making a substantial contribution to reducing climate warming because many of the chemicals under this treaty are greenhouse gases.}, }
@article {pmid32364132, year = {2020}, author = {Li, C and Gu, H}, title = {Climate change and mortality evolution in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {267}, number = {}, pages = {110622}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110622}, pmid = {32364132}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This paper explores the historical relationship between weather fluctuations and mortality evolution in China. Using panel data on the annual provincial mortality rate and daily weather variables for the 1964-2008 period, we applied a dynamic model structure with sufficient controls to estimate the short-term effects of temperature shocks on China's mortality rate. Our main results show that an additional 1 °C rise in average temperature in a given year increases the annual mortality rate by an average of 3.2%. In addition, days with daily average temperatures exceeding 27 °C (30 °C) are associated with an increase in the annual mortality rate of nearly 0.1% (0.2%) or approximately 9,520 (19,040) additional deaths. In contrast, extremely cold days do not have these effects. By applying a hybrid model structure (the long difference approach) to examine the medium-term effects of temperature changes, we find that there is little evidence of overall adaptation to high temperatures when moving from the short term to the medium term. In addition, by introducing interactions between temperatures and potential modifiers such as access to doctors, hospital beds, air conditioning and refrigerators, we determined that only residential air conditioning played an important role in mitigating the temperature-mortality relationship. However, the penetration of air conditioning in China is still relatively low. These findings indicate that climate change could partially explain the historical phenomenon of China's rising mortality rate during the unprecedented economic boom experienced since the 1980s.}, }
@article {pmid32361360, year = {2020}, author = {Aboubakri, O and Khanjani, N and Jahani, Y and Bakhtiari, B and Mesgari, E}, title = {Projection of mortality attributed to heat and cold; the impact of climate change in a dry region of Iran, Kerman.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {728}, number = {}, pages = {138700}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138700}, pmid = {32361360}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Estimating the effects of climate change on human health can help health policy makers plan for the future. In Iran, there are few studies, about investigating the effects of climate change on mortality. This study aimed to project the effect of low (cold) and high (heat) temperature on mortality in a dry region of Iran, Kerman.<br><br>METHODS: Mortality attributed to temperature was projected by estimating the temperature-mortality relation for the observed data, projection of future temperatures by the statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and quantifying the attributable fraction by applying the observed temperature-mortality relation on the projected temperature. Climate change projection was done by three climate scenarios base on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Adaptation was considered by using different minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) and risk reduction approaches. The current decade (2010-19) was considered as the reference period.<br><br>RESULTS: All three climate change scenarios, showed that the mean of temperature will rise about 1 °C, by 2050 in Kerman. The number of deaths attributed to heat were obviously higher than cold in all periods. Assuming no adaptation, over 3700 deaths attributed to temperature will happen in each decade (2020s, 2030s and 2040s) in the future, in which over 3000 deaths will be due to heat and over 450 due to cold. In the predictions, as Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT) went up, the contribution of heat to mortality slightly decreased, and cold temperature played a more important role. By considering the risk reduction due to adaptation, the contribution of heat in mortality slightly and insignificantly decreased.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results showed that although low temperatures will contribute to temperature-related mortality in the future, but heat will be a stronger risk factor for mortality, especially if adaptation is low.}, }
@article {pmid32361258, year = {2020}, author = {Okwala, T and Shrestha, S and Ghimire, S and Mohanasundaram, S and Datta, A}, title = {Assessment of climate change impacts on water balance and hydrological extremes in Bang Pakong-Prachin Buri river basin, Thailand.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {186}, number = {}, pages = {109544}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109544}, pmid = {32361258}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Among many factors the hydrology of a watershed is mainly influenced by climate and land use change. This study examined the impacts of climate change on water resources and extreme events in the Bang Pakong-Prachin Buri River Basin, Thailand using three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ACCESS1-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM, and MPI-ESM-LR-CSIRO-CCAM under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the future streamflow and Extreme Value Type I distribution (EVI) was used to analyze the extreme events under projected climate conditions. The result of this study showed an increase in maximum (1.9 °C/3.6 °C) and minimum (1.6 °C/3.3 °C) temperatures under RCP4.5/8.5 at the end of the 21st century. In addition, projected rainfall is expected to decrease up to 6.8% (8.5%) in 2050s and then increase slowly such that the decrement remains 4.2% (11.0%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) at the end of the century. The rainfall pattern is projected to considerably fluctuate, in particular, a shift in long term average annual peak event from September to August is predicted in 2080s under emission scenario RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). On the other hand, the average annual discharge is expected to increase up to 13.5% (2020s) and 7.6% (2050s) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively with decreasing trend in low flows and increasing trend in high flows. Further analysis on extreme events; strengthened the results from hydrological modeling with an increase in flow volume for the same return period under changed climate conditions. This raises water resources management issues in the Bang Pakong-Prachin Buri River Basin regarding the frequency of flood and drought events in the future calling for proper policy formulation and implementation.}, }
@article {pmid32359156, year = {2020}, author = {Eastwood, MA}, title = {Global warming and the laws of nature.}, journal = {QJM : monthly journal of the Association of Physicians}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/qjmed/hcaa152}, pmid = {32359156}, issn = {1460-2393}, }
@article {pmid32358990, year = {2020}, author = {Brice, MH and Vissault, S and Vieira, W and Gravel, D and Legendre, P and Fortin, MJ}, title = {Moderate disturbances accelerate forest transition dynamics under climate change in the temperate-boreal ecotone of eastern North America.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15143}, pmid = {32358990}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Several temperate tree species are expected to migrate northward and colonise boreal forests in response to climate change. Tree migrations could lead to transitions in forest types, but these could be influenced by several non-climatic factors, such as disturbances and soil conditions. We analysed over 10,000 forest inventory plots, sampled from 1970 to 2018 in meridional Québec, Canada to identify what environmental conditions promote or prevent regional-scale forest transitions. We used a continuous-time multi-state Markov model to quantify the probabilities of transitions between forest states (temperate, boreal, mixed, pioneer) as a function of climate (mean temperature and climate moisture index during the growing season), soil conditions (pH and drainage) and disturbances (severity levels of natural disturbances and logging). We further investigate how different disturbance types and severities impact forests' short-term transient dynamics and long-term equilibrium using properties of Markov transition matrices. The most common transitions observed during the study period were from mixed to temperate states, as well as from pioneer to boreal forests. In our study, transitions were mainly driven by natural and anthropogenic disturbances and secondarily by climate, whereas soil characteristics exerted relatively minor constraints. While major disturbances only promoted transitions to the pioneer state, moderate disturbances increased the probability of transition from mixed to temperate states. Long-term projections of our model under the current environmental conditions indicate that moderate disturbances would promote a northward shift of the temperate forest. Moreover, disturbances reduced turnover and convergence time for all transitions, thereby accelerating forest dynamics. Contrary to our expectation, mixed to temperate transitions were not driven by temperate tree recruitment but by mortality and growth. Overall, our results suggest that moderate disturbances could catalyse rapid forest transitions and accelerate broad-scale biome shifts.}, }
@article {pmid32358588, year = {2020}, author = {Iwamura, T and Guzman-Holst, A and Murray, KA}, title = {Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2130}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4}, pmid = {32358588}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became ~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950-2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2-4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from ~2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector's global invasion potential.}, }
@article {pmid32357890, year = {2020}, author = {Ryan, SJ and Lippi, CA and Zermoglio, F}, title = {Shifting transmission risk for malaria in Africa with climate change: a framework for planning and intervention.}, journal = {Malaria journal}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {170}, doi = {10.1186/s12936-020-03224-6}, pmid = {32357890}, issn = {1475-2875}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be a disease of massive burden in Africa, and the public health resources targeted at surveillance, prevention, control, and intervention comprise large outlays of expense. Malaria transmission is largely constrained by the suitability of the climate for Anopheles mosquitoes and Plasmodium parasite development. Thus, as climate changes, shifts in geographic locations suitable for transmission, and differing lengths of seasons of suitability will occur, which will require changes in the types and amounts of resources.<br><br>METHODS: The shifting geographic risk of malaria transmission was mapped, in context of changing seasonality (i.e. endemic to epidemic, and vice versa), and the number of people affected. A published temperature-dependent model of malaria transmission suitability was applied to continental gridded climate data for multiple future AR5 climate model projections. The resulting outcomes were aligned with programmatic needs to provide summaries at national and regional scales for the African continent. Model outcomes were combined with population projections to estimate the population at risk at three points in the future, 2030, 2050, and 2080, under two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).<br><br>RESULTS: Estimated geographic shifts in endemic and seasonal suitability for malaria transmission were observed across all future scenarios of climate change. The worst-case regional scenario (RCP8.5) of climate change predicted an additional 75.9 million people at risk from endemic (10-12 months) exposure to malaria transmission in Eastern and Southern Africa by the year 2080, with the greatest population at risk in Eastern Africa. Despite a predominance of reduction in season length, a net gain of 51.3 million additional people is predicted be put at some level of risk in Western Africa by midcentury.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an updated view of potential malaria geographic shifts in Africa under climate change for the more recent climate model projections (AR5), and a tool for aligning findings with programmatic needs at key scales for decision-makers. In describing shifting seasonality, it was possible to capture transitions between endemic and epidemic risk areas, to facilitate the planning for interventions aimed at year-round risk versus anticipatory surveillance and rapid response to potential outbreak locations.}, }
@article {pmid32355377, year = {2017}, author = {Demski, C and Capstick, S and Pidgeon, N and Sposato, RG and Spence, A}, title = {Experience of extreme weather affects climate change mitigation and adaptation responses.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {140}, number = {2}, pages = {149-164}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1837-4}, pmid = {32355377}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {The winter of 2013/2014 saw a series of severe storms hit the UK, leading to widespread flooding, a major emergency response and extensive media exposure. Previous research indicates that experiencing extreme weather events has the potential to heighten engagement with climate change, however the process by which this occurs remains largely unknown, and establishing a clear causal relationship from experience to perceptions is methodologically challenging. The UK winter flooding offered a natural experiment to examine this question in detail. We compare individuals personally affected by flooding (n = 162) to a nationally representative sample (n = 975). We show that direct experience of flooding leads to an overall increased salience of climate change, pronounced emotional responses and greater perceived personal vulnerability and risk perceptions. We also present the first evidence that direct flooding experience can give rise to behavioural intentions beyond individual sustainability actions, including support for mitigation policies, and personal climate adaptation in matters unrelated to the direct experience.}, }
@article {pmid32353287, year = {2020}, author = {Ingle, HE and Mikulewicz, M}, title = {Mental health and climate change: tackling invisible injustice.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {e128-e130}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30081-4}, pmid = {32353287}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid32350458, year = {2020}, author = {Rocklöv, J and Dubrow, R}, title = {Author Correction: Climate change: an enduring challenge for vector-borne disease prevention and control.}, journal = {Nature immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41590-020-0692-7}, pmid = {32350458}, issn = {1529-2916}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32350402, year = {2020}, author = {Lori, M and Piton, G and Symanczik, S and Legay, N and Brussaard, L and Jaenicke, S and Nascimento, E and Reis, F and Sousa, JP and Mäder, P and Gattinger, A and Clément, JC and Foulquier, A}, title = {Compared to conventional, ecological intensive management promotes beneficial proteolytic soil microbial communities for agro-ecosystem functioning under climate change-induced rain regimes.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {7296}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-64279-8}, pmid = {32350402}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Projected climate change and rainfall variability will affect soil microbial communities, biogeochemical cycling and agriculture. Nitrogen (N) is the most limiting nutrient in agroecosystems and its cycling and availability is highly dependent on microbial driven processes. In agroecosystems, hydrolysis of organic nitrogen (N) is an important step in controlling soil N availability. We analyzed the effect of management (ecological intensive vs. conventional intensive) on N-cycling processes and involved microbial communities under climate change-induced rain regimes. Terrestrial model ecosystems originating from agroecosystems across Europe were subjected to four different rain regimes for 263 days. Using structural equation modelling we identified direct impacts of rain regimes on N-cycling processes, whereas N-related microbial communities were more resistant. In addition to rain regimes, management indirectly affected N-cycling processes via modifications of N-related microbial community composition. Ecological intensive management promoted a beneficial N-related microbial community composition involved in N-cycling processes under climate change-induced rain regimes. Exploratory analyses identified phosphorus-associated litter properties as possible drivers for the observed management effects on N-related microbial community composition. This work provides novel insights into mechanisms controlling agro-ecosystem functioning under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32350377, year = {2020}, author = {Vetter, SG and Puskas, Z and Bieber, C and Ruf, T}, title = {How climate change and wildlife management affect population structure in wild boars.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {7298}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-64216-9}, pmid = {32350377}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {855666//Österreichische Forschungsförderungsgesellschaft (Austrian Research Promotion Agency)/ ; }, abstract = {Global climate change affects many species and contributes to the exceptional population growth of wild boar populations and thus to increasing human-wildlife conflicts. To investigate the impact of climate change on wild boar populations we extended existing models on population dynamics. We included for the first time different juvenile conditions to account for long-lasting effects of juvenile body mass on adult body mass and reproductive success. Our analysis shows that incorporating phenotypes, like body mass differences within age classes, has strong effects on projected population growth rates, population structures and the relative importance of certain vital rates. Our models indicated that an increase in winter temperatures and food availability will cause a decrease in mean body mass and litter size within Central European wild boar populations. We further analysed different hunting regimes to identify their effects on the population structure as well as their efficiency in limiting population growth. While targeting juveniles had the lowest effect on population structure, such strategies are, however, rather ineffective. In contrast, culling predominantly yearlings seems very effective. Despite being equally effective, only focusing on adults will not result in a reduction of population size due to their low proportion within populations.}, }
@article {pmid32350339, year = {2020}, author = {Kusunoki, S and Ose, T and Hosaka, M}, title = {Author Correction: Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {7454}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-63945-1}, pmid = {32350339}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32350294, year = {2020}, author = {Marcelino, J and Silva, JP and Gameiro, J and Silva, A and Rego, FC and Moreira, F and Catry, I}, title = {Extreme events are more likely to affect the breeding success of lesser kestrels than average climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {7207}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-64087-0}, pmid = {32350294}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to severely impact interactions between prey, predators and habitats. In Southern Europe, within the Mediterranean climate, herbaceous vegetation achieves its maximum growth in middle spring followed by a three-month dry summer, limiting prey availability for insectivorous birds. Lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) breed in a time-window that matches the nestling-rearing period with the peak abundance of grasshoppers and forecasted climate change may impact reproductive success through changes in prey availability and abundance. We used Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a surrogate of habitat quality and prey availability to investigate the impacts of forecasted climate change and extreme climatic events on lesser kestrel breeding performance. First, using 14 years of data from 15 colonies in Southwestern Iberia, we linked fledging success and climatic variables with NDVI, and secondly, based on these relationships and according to climatic scenarios for 2050 and 2070, forecasted NDVI and fledging success. Finally, we evaluated how fledging success was influenced by drought events since 2004. Despite predicting a decrease in vegetation greenness in lesser kestrel foraging areas during spring, we found no impacts of predicted gradual rise in temperature and decline in precipitation on their fledging success. Notwithstanding, we found a decrease of 12% in offspring survival associated with drought events, suggesting that a higher frequency of droughts might, in the future, jeopardize the recent recovery of the European population. Here, we show that extreme events, such as droughts, can have more significant impacts on species than gradual climatic changes, especially in regions like the Mediterranean Basin, a biodiversity and climate change hotspot.}, }
@article {pmid32347994, year = {2020}, author = {Meynard, CN and Lecoq, M and Chapuis, MP and Piou, C}, title = {On the relative role of climate change and management in the current Desert Locust outbreak in East Africa.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15137}, pmid = {32347994}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {The current outbreak of the Desert Locust has affected much of eastern Africa and has reached as far as Pakistan and India in Asia, generating significant agricultural losses in a region that is already highly unstable economically, politically, and in terms of food security for its human populations (FAO, 2020). Desert Locust outbreaks require a combination of weather, soil and vegetation conditions that favour the reproduction and aggregation of otherwise solitary individuals (Despland et al., 2000) (Figure 1a). When those conditions appear, locusts aggregate, multiply in large numbers and migrate long distances, turning into a plague and devastating crops on their way.}, }
@article {pmid32347914, year = {2020}, author = {Malaspina, D and Howell, EA and Spicer, J}, title = {Intergenerational Echoes of Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA psychiatry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2020.0604}, pmid = {32347914}, issn = {2168-6238}, }
@article {pmid32347501, year = {2020}, author = {Shaffril, HAM and Idris, K and Sahharon, H and Samah, AA and Samah, BA}, title = {Adaptation towards climate change impacts among highland farmers in Malaysia.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08987-8}, pmid = {32347501}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {05-01-15-1755FR//Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia/ ; }, abstract = {This study aims to gain more understanding on highland farmers' adaptation towards the impacts of climate change in Malaysia. Via a multi-stage cluster sampling, this quantitative study has surveyed a total of 400 highland farmers as respondents. The results indicated that the highest climate change-resilient farmers were from Kundasang, specifically among the females, Dusun ethnic group, and those who work side jobs to cover household expenses. Furthermore, recorded factors such as age and years of experience yielded significant negative relationship with adaptation whereas income yielded significant positive relationship with adaptation. The paper concludes with recommendations related to occupational diversification, consistent information disseminations, access to financial assistance, and the need to empower extension officers and local leaders in the hope that a comprehensive approach can help implement any community climate change-adaptation plan.}, }
@article {pmid32346776, year = {2020}, author = {Koch, S and Pecher, S}, title = {[New challenges for anesthesia due to the climate change].}, journal = {Der Anaesthesist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00101-020-00770-1}, pmid = {32346776}, issn = {1432-055X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The climate crisis is the most serious threat to global health in the twenty-first century. In western countries 5-10% of all greenhouse gas emissions originate from the healthcare sector and the main contributing factors are energy-intense departments (intensive care units, operating suits and prehospital emergency services).<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The aim of this review is to provide background knowledge and practical ideas to achieve climate-neutral hospitals.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: Narrative review with information on the topics of (I) volatile anesthetics as greenhouse gases, (II) energy supply in hospitals and (III) solid waste management.<br><br>RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: (I) Volatile anesthetics are highly potent greenhouse gases, especially desflurane has a major global warming potential. Total intravenous anesthesia (TIVA) with propofol or regional anesthetic techniques have a much lower impact on the climate. (II) Using sustainable energy sources as well as initiating energy sparing techniques, such as light-emitting diodes (LED) and motion sensors, can reduce CO2 emissions. (III) Waste can be managed by the reduce, reuse, recycle, rethink and research concept. Doctors should actively contribute to reach the climate goals.}, }
@article {pmid32346388, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, Z and Yang, Z and Fahad, S and Zhang, T and Xu, W and Cui, K and Peng, S and Huang, J}, title = {A hot-blast warming facility for simulating global warming in low-stature crop systems and its application case to assess elevated temperature effects on rice in Central China.}, journal = {Plant methods}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {57}, doi = {10.1186/s13007-020-00598-1}, pmid = {32346388}, issn = {1746-4811}, abstract = {Background: To study the impact of climate warming on crops, it is crucial to have a warming equipment suitable for their field environment. A facility is needed that can provide suitable combinations of different temperatures at reasonable cost for large plots.<br><br>Results: Here, an additional field warming facility option named the hot-blast warming facility (HBWF), which comprised heaters, blowers, wind breaks, and a control board was developed. An application case based on HBWF was carried out to assess elevated temperature effects on rice in Central China during 2015 and 2016. We tested four elevated temperature treatments on four rice cultivars under paddy field conditions and measured yield and its components. Heating convection air directly, the facility could increase the temperature of the rice canopy up to 1-2 °C, which could properly simulate global warming. Considering the costs, the HBWF reduced the operating costs because of its relatively lower power consumption (0.164 kW/m2), which was 80% lower than that of Free Air Temperature Increase. Our results demonstrate that the HBWF could build a 25 m2 homogeneous heating area and had little effect on the relative humidity under a paddy field environment. Warming treatments significantly reduced the grain yield by 4.4-22.7% in 2015, and 30.8-61.9% in 2016, compared to the control. The main contribution to the significant decrease of the grain yields was the decrease in seed setting rate. Moreover, a reduction of 1000-grain weight led to the decline in grain yield. The increasing ranges of the temperature simulated by HBWF were stable in different years, however, whether the elevated treatments demonstrated significant difference on rice growth mainly decided by the basic atmospheric temperature (as the control) during the growth period.<br><br>Conclusions: The new warming facility is suitable for field trials to assess elevated temperature combinations and provides an extra equipment option for use in elevated temperature research in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32345877, year = {2020}, author = {Young, JD}, title = {Environmental Amnesia: Climate Change and Medical Education.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {95}, number = {5}, pages = {667-668}, doi = {10.1097/ACM.0000000000003184}, pmid = {32345877}, issn = {1938-808X}, }
@article {pmid32344223, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, L and Zhang, Z and Luo, Y and Cao, J and Li, Z}, title = {Optimizing genotype-environment-management interactions for maize farmers to adapt to climate change in different agro-ecological zones across China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {728}, number = {}, pages = {138614}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138614}, pmid = {32344223}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Crop growth conditions are being altered by ongoing climate change and the agronomic management practices should be adjusted accordingly and timely. In Chinese Maize Belt, climate change impacts are always compounded by agronomic management and the regional differences have yet to be well understood. How local farmers adapt to climate change is a big challenge and related adaptive strategies are urgently required. Based on detailed field experiments performed for >15 years, we applied the CERES-Maize model to disentangle the impacts of individual climate variables, quantify the contributions of three low-cost measures (cultivar, sowing date, and planting density) to yield variations, and design effective adaptation options in each zone. We found the patterns and impacts of climate change varied among the cultivated areas: yield increased by 0.39% per year in Northeast China (NEC) and 0.78% in the northwestern arid area (NWA) but decreased by 1.13% in the North China Plain (NCP). The results highlighted the considerable impacts of increased minimum temperature and decreased solar radiation on the changes of maize yield. CERES-Maize model reproduced the phenology and yield well with <9% bias and >81% yield explanation ability. The simulation results suggested that an appropriate delay in sowing date could mitigate climatic negative effects and enhance maize yields significantly. Planting cultivars of Nongda108 in NEC, Zhengdan958 in the NCP, and Shendan10 in the NWA substantially increased yield compared with planting the cultivars most widely used by farmers. The optimal planting density were 11.4, 12.3, and 12.7 plants/m2 respectively, which were generally higher than the local common levels. By optimizing genotype (G)-environment (E)-management (M) interactions, maize yield can be enhanced by at least 10%, especially in the NWA, implying that efforts to increase food production should be made in low-yielding zones. This study illustrated the patterns of climate change in different zones, and demonstrated an effective approach to develop sustainable intensification options and improve yield and stability with fewer economic-environmental costs by optimizing G × E × M interactions in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32343630, year = {2020}, author = {Zadkovic, S and Lombardo, N and Cole, DC}, title = {Breastfeeding and Climate Change: Overlapping Vulnerabilities and Integrating Responses.}, journal = {Journal of human lactation : official journal of International Lactation Consultant Association}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {890334420920223}, doi = {10.1177/0890334420920223}, pmid = {32343630}, issn = {1552-5732}, }
@article {pmid32341394, year = {2020}, author = {Bezeng, BS and Yessoufou, K and Taylor, PJ and Tesfamichael, SG}, title = {Expected spatial patterns of alien woody plants in South Africa's protected areas under current scenario of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {7038}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-63830-x}, pmid = {32341394}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Although protected areas (PAs) are declared to provide sanctuaries for biodiversity, they are increasingly threatened by the synergistic effects of anthropic factors, invasive alien species and climate change. Consequently, interventions are required to minimize the impacts of these threats on PAs' integrity. To inform these interventions in the South African context and under the current climate change scenario, we tested for geographic patterns of alien woody species across the network of 1,453 PAs using three alien invasion indices - alien species abundance, invaded area ratio and alien species richness. Our analysis shows that, under current climate change scenario, none of the PAs would be effective in shielding against alien plants and PAs that are geographically close tend to share similar invasion patterns. In addition, PAs that are hotspots of alien species are also geographically clustered but these findings are biome-dependent. Our outlier analysis reveals not only an island of disproportionately rich PAs in alien species, but also identifies some alien-poor PAs. We suggest that PAs that are hotspots of alien species as well as outliers of disproportionately rich PAs in alien species should be priority in monitoring and invasion control programmes in the context of the ongoing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32339294, year = {2020}, author = {Tiwari, R and Gloor, E and da Cruz, WJA and Schwantes Marimon, B and Marimon-Junior, BH and Reis, SM and de Souza, IA and Krause, HG and Slot, M and Winter, K and Ashley, D and Béu, RG and Borges, CS and Da Cunha, M and Fauset, S and Dos Santos Ferreira, L and Gonçalves, MDA and Lopes, TT and Marques, EQ and Mendonça, NG and Mendonça, NG and Noleto, PT and de Oliveira, CHL and Oliveira, MA and Pireda, S and Dos Santos Prestes, NCC and Santos, DM and Santos, EB and da Silva, ELS and de Souza, IA and de Souza, LJ and Vitória, AP and Foyer, CH and Galbraith, D}, title = {Photosynthetic quantum efficiency in South-Eastern Amazonian trees may be already affected by climate change.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/pce.13770}, pmid = {32339294}, issn = {1365-3040}, abstract = {Tropical forests are experiencing unprecedented high temperature conditions due to climate change that could limit their photosynthetic functions. We studied the high temperature sensitivity of photosynthesis in a rainforest site in southern Amazonia, where some of the highest temperatures and most rapid warming in the Tropics have been recorded. The quantum yield (Fv /Fm) of photosystem II was measured in seven dominant tree species using leaf discs exposed to varying levels of heat stress. T50 was calculated as the temperature at which Fv /Fm was half the maximum value. T5 is defined as the breakpoint temperature, at which Fv /Fm decline was initiated. Leaf thermotolerance in the rapidly warming Southern Amazonia was the highest recorded for forest tree species globally. T50 and T5 varied between species, with one mid storey species, Amaioua guianensis, exhibiting particularly high T50 and T5 values. While the T50 values of the species sampled were several degrees above the maximum air temperatures experienced in southern Amazonia, the T5 values of several species are now exceeded under present-day maximum air temperatures. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid32337781, year = {2020}, author = {Vezzulli, L and Baker-Austin, C and Kirschner, A and Pruzzo, C and Martinez-Urtaza, J}, title = {Global emergence of environmental non-O1/O139 Vibrio cholerae infections linked with climate change: a neglected research field?.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1462-2920.15040}, pmid = {32337781}, issn = {1462-2920}, abstract = {The bacterium Vibrio cholerae is a natural inhabitant of aquatic ecosystems across the planet. V. cholerae serogroups O1 and O139 are responsible for cholera outbreaks in developing countries accounting for 3-5 million infections worldwide and 28.800-130.000 deaths per year according to World Health Organization. In contrast, V. cholerae serogroups other than O1 and O139, also designated as V. cholerae non-O1/O139 (NOVC), are not associated with epidemic cholera but can cause other illnesses that may range in severity from mild (e.g. gastroenteritis, otitis, etc.) to life-threatening (e.g. necrotizing fasciitis). Although generally neglected, NOVC related infections are on the rise and represent one of the most striking examples of emerging human diseases linked to climate change. NOVC strains are also believed to potentially contribute to the emergence of new pathogenic strains including strains with epidemic potential as a direct consequence of genetic exchange mechanisms such as horizontal gene transfer and genetic recombination. Besides general features concerning the biology and ecology of NOVC strains and their associated diseases this review aims to highlight most relevant aspects related to the emergence and potential threat posed by NOVC strains under a rapidly changing environmental and climatic scenario. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid32334228, year = {2020}, author = {Kouloumpis, V and Pell, RS and Correa-Cano, ME and Yan, X}, title = {Potential trade-offs between eliminating plastics and mitigating climate change: An LCA perspective on Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) bottles in Cornwall.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {727}, number = {}, pages = {138681}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138681}, pmid = {32334228}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The aim of this study is to investigate whether eliminating plastics entirely under existing waste infrastructure and management practices could have an adverse effect on climate change, using a case study on the hypothetical substitution of Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) with glass as the material for bottling liquids in the domestic sector in Cornwall, England. A life cycle environmental impacts-based model was created using high resolution local data on household waste and current management practices in combination with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) datasets. The model allows users to define key system parameters such as masses of materials, transport options and end-of-life processes and produces results for 11 environmental impact categories including the Global Warming Potential (GWP). The results from the application of this model on the case study of Cornwall have shown that the substitution of PET with glass as the material for bottling under the current waste infrastructure and management practices could lead to significant increases in GWP and hinder efforts to tackle climate change. A sensitivity analysis of the glass/PET mass ratio suggests that in order to achieve equal GWP the glass bottles need to become approximately 38% of the weight they are now. Increasing the recycled content and decreasing losses during the recycling processes could also help lower the GWP by 18.9% and 14.5%, respectively. This model can be expanded further to include more types of plastics and other regions to evaluate designs of new regional circular economy with less plastics waste and pollution. Our study suggests that it is necessary and crucial to consider the specific waste infrastructure and management practices in place and use science-based models that incorporate life cycle thinking to evaluate any solutions to plastics pollution in order to avoid problem shifting.}, }
@article {pmid32334166, year = {2020}, author = {Ngin, C and Chhom, C and Neef, A}, title = {Climate change impacts and disaster resilience among micro businesses in the tourism and hospitality sector: The case of Kratie, Cambodia.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {186}, number = {}, pages = {109557}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109557}, pmid = {32334166}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Cambodia is considered extremely vulnerable to climate change due to high poverty, limited infrastructure, and weak adaptive capacity. Kratie province, in particular, has suffered from climate-induced disasters, including floods, droughts, storms, lightning, and heatwaves. To date, climate change interventions in the province have primarily focused on impacts on agriculture. However, enhancing the climate resilience of micro businesses in the tourism and hospitality sector is also crucial since the provincial economy increasingly depends on the interlinkage between agriculture, tourism and related enterprises. This article examines how climate change has impacted micro businesses in Kratie Town, and how they responded to the impacts. This study is based on semi-structured interviews with micro entrepreneurs randomly selected in the town. Results show that businesses have been predominantly affected by floods and storms. Business exposures and locations, types of business, production and supply chains, and client bases determined different impacts of and responses to these climate-related hazards. Businesses adopted primarily temporary and reactive responses rather than long-term systematic measures. Strengthening adaptive infrastructure, both physical and informational, will improve businesses' capability to prepare for and cope with these disasters.}, }
@article {pmid32333476, year = {2020}, author = {Nielsen, ME and Kingsolver, JG}, title = {Compensating for climate change-induced cue-environment mismatches: evidence for contemporary evolution of a photoperiodic reaction norm in Colias butterflies.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13515}, pmid = {32333476}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {1609023//Division of Biological Infrastructure/ ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change alters seasonal conditions without altering photoperiod and can thus create a cue-environment mismatch for organisms that use photoperiod as a cue for seasonal plasticity. We investigated whether evolution of the photoperiodic reaction norm has compensated for this mismatch in Colias eurytheme. This butterfly's wing melanization has a thermoregulatory function and changes seasonally. In 1971, Hoffmann quantified how larval photoperiod determines adult wing melanization. We recreated his experiment 47 years later using a contemporary population. Comparing our results to his, we found decreased melanization at short photoperiods but no change in melanization at long photoperiods, which is consistent with the greater increase in spring than summer temperatures recorded for this region. Our study shows that evolution can help correct cue-environment mismatches but not in the same way under all conditions. Studies of contemporary evolution may miss important changes if they focus on only a limited range of conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32333012, year = {2020}, author = {Lembrechts, J}, title = {The Holy Trinity of spatial climate change ecology: high-resolution climate data, long-term biodiversity monitoring and physiological experiments. A commentary on: 'Invasive grasses of sub-Antarctic Marion Island respond to increasing temperatures at the expense of chilling tolerance'.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {125}, number = {5}, pages = {ix-x}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcaa057}, pmid = {32333012}, issn = {1095-8290}, }
@article {pmid32332913, year = {2020}, author = {Elsen, PR and Monahan, WB and Merenlender, AM}, title = {Topography and human pressure in mountain ranges alter expected species responses to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1974}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15881-x}, pmid = {32332913}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate change is leading to widespread elevational shifts thought to increase species extinction risk in mountains. We integrate digital elevation models with a metric of human pressure to examine changes in the amount of intact land area available for species undergoing elevational range shifts in all major mountain ranges globally (n = 1010). Nearly 60% of mountainous area is under intense human pressure, predominantly at low elevations and mountain bases. Consequently, upslope range shifts generally resulted in modeled species at lower elevations expanding into areas of lower human pressure and, due to complex topography, encountering more intact land area relative to their starting position. Such gains were often attenuated at high elevations as land-use constraints diminished and topographic constraints increased. Integrating patterns of topography and human pressure is essential for accurate species vulnerability assessments under climate change, as priorities for protecting, connecting, and restoring mountain landscapes may otherwise be misguided.}, }
@article {pmid32332758, year = {2020}, author = {Rathore, S and Bindoff, NL and Phillips, HE and Feng, M}, title = {Recent hemispheric asymmetry in global ocean warming induced by climate change and internal variability.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2008}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15754-3}, pmid = {32332758}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Recent research shows that 90% of the net global ocean heat gain during 2005-2015 was confined to the southern hemisphere with little corresponding heat gain in the northern hemisphere ocean. We propose that this heating pattern of the ocean is driven by anthropogenic climate change and an asymmetric climate variation between the two hemispheres. This asymmetric variation is found in the pre-industrial control simulations from 11 climate models. While both layers (0-700 m and 700-2000 m) experience steady anthropogenic warming, the 0-700 m layer experiences large internal variability, which primarily drives the observed hemispheric asymmetry of global ocean heat gain in 0-2000 m layer. We infer that the rate of global ocean warming is consistent with the climate simulations for this period. However, the observed hemispheric asymmetry in heat gain can be explained by the Earth's internal climate variability without invoking alternate hypotheses, such as asymmetric aerosol loading.}, }
@article {pmid32331869, year = {2020}, author = {Pryce, JE and Haile-Mariam, M}, title = {Symposium review: Genomic selection for reducing environmental impact and adapting to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of dairy science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3168/jds.2019-17732}, pmid = {32331869}, issn = {1525-3198}, abstract = {The world has been warming as greenhouse gases accumulate. Worldwide from 1880 to 2012, the average surface temperature has increased by about 0.85°C and by 0.12°C per decade since 1951. The world's cattle population is a contributor to atmospheric methane, a potent greenhouse gas, in addition to suffering from high temperatures combined with humidity. This makes research into reducing the global footprint of dairy cows of importance on a long-term horizon, while improving tolerance to heat could alleviate the effects of rising temperatures. In December 2017, genomic estimated breeding values for heat tolerance in dairy cattle were released for the first time in Australia. Currently, heat tolerance is not included in the Balanced Performance Index (Australia's national selection index), and the correlation between heat tolerance breeding values and Balanced Performance Index is -0.20, so over time, heat tolerance has worsened due to lack of selection pressure. However, in contrast, sizable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions have been achieved as a favorable response to selecting for increased productivity, longevity, and efficiency, with opportunities for even greater gains through selecting for cow emissions directly. Internationally considerable research effort has been made to develop breeding values focused on reducing methane emissions using individual cow phenotypes. This requires (1) definition of breeding objectives and selection criteria and (2) assembling a sufficiently large data set for genomic prediction. Selecting for heat tolerance and reduced emissions directly may improve resilience to changing environments while reducing environmental impact.}, }
@article {pmid32331213, year = {2020}, author = {Dzomeku, BM and Wald, JP and Wünsche, JN and Nohr, D and Biesalski, HK}, title = {Climate Change Enhanced Carotenoid Pro-Vitamin A Levels of Selected Plantain Cultivars.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants9040541}, pmid = {32331213}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Diet diversification and the exploitation of traditional, micronutrient-rich germplasm of staple crops are generally regarded as sustainable and low-cost approaches to increase the micronutrient intake of resource-poor people. Sun's UV index was collected daily throughout the year. The study assessed the seasonality of provitamin A carotenoids in three plantain cultivars in response to climatic condition. Fruits were harvested at three maturities and freeze-dried before analysis. The results showed that there were high levels of the sun's UV-B radiations throughout the year with the highest occurring from November to May when the area experienced clear skies with minimal cloud cover. These high levels of the sun's UV-B index occurred between 9.00 h GMT and 17.00 h GMT. The study also showed that α-carotene content increased with maturity in &quot;Apantu&quot; during the rainy seasons ranging from 95 to 172 μg/100 g of dry pulp. Similar trends were observed during the dry season with a range of 28 to 489 μg/100 g. The α-carotene contents were very high in the periods of high sun's UV-B radiations compared to the periods of low sun's UV-B radiations. The α-carotene levels in the giant French plantains showed similar trends. Intermediate French &quot;Oniaba&quot; and False Horn &quot;Apantu&quot; plantain cultivar showed the highest content of β-carotene during the dry season. The high provitamin A carotenoid levels in the cultivars coincided with the high levels of the sun's UV index.}, }
@article {pmid32330705, year = {2020}, author = {Wang, L and Li, M and Wang, J and Li, X and Wang, L}, title = {An analytical reductionist framework to separate the effects of climate change and human activities on variation in water use efficiency.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {727}, number = {}, pages = {138306}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138306}, pmid = {32330705}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) is a key indicator that depicts the carbon-water coupling relationship in terrestrial ecosystems. Separating the effects of climate change and human activities to the variation in WUE are essential for water resources and ecosystem management, especially for fragile ecosystems such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study, we introduced an analytical framework that combined the attribution approach with the elastic coefficient separation method to assess the impact of climate change and human activities on WUE variation in the TP from 1982 to 2015. The results are the following: (1) the multiyear mean annual WUE over the TP was 0.65 g C·kg-1 H2O and had a slightly increasing trend with a slope of 0.004 g C·kg-1 H2O yr-1 with about 87% of the vegetated area showed increasing trend. (2) WUE was positively correlated with temperature, precipitation and air pressure. The northwest TP tends to be a water-limited condition, while the thermal stress is spatially universal in the TP, climate warming and wetting promoted the gross primary productivity (GPP) and WUE enhancement in the TP. (3) WUE was more sensitive to GPP, and variation in WUE was mainly contributed by GPP. Climate change and human activities tend to cause more variations in GPP rather than evapotranspiration (ET), but great differences exist for different regions and vegetation types. (4) There was a good consistency between the WUE variation calculated by the framework and the actual WUE variation (R2 = 0.95). Climate change dominated the increase of WUE in the TP with a contribution rate of 79.8%, while human activities tend to reduce WUE (-20.2%). Ecological projects played a positive role in the ecological restoration of the TP, but there may be other human activities, which caused ecological degradation, that may need more attention in future ecological protections.}, }
@article {pmid32325610, year = {2020}, author = {Franzellitti, S and Prada, F and Viarengo, A and Fabbri, E}, title = {Evaluating bivalve cytoprotective responses and their regulatory pathways in a climate change scenario.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {720}, number = {}, pages = {137733}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137733}, pmid = {32325610}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Temperature is a relevant abiotic factor affecting physiological performance and distribution of marine animals in natural environments. The changes in global seawater temperatures make it necessary to understand how molecular mechanisms operate under the cumulative effects of global climate change and chemical pollution to promote/hamper environmental acclimatization. Marine mussels are excellent model organisms to infer the impacts of those anthropogenic threats on coastal ecosystems. In this study, Mediterranean mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) were exposed to different concentrations of the metal copper (Cu as CuCl2: 2.5, 5, 10, 20, 40 μg/L) or the antibiotic oxytetracycline (OTC: 0.1, 1, 10, 100, 1000 μg/L) at increasing seawater temperatures (16 °C, 20 °C, 24 °C). Transcriptional modulation of a 70-kDa heat shock protein (HSP70) and of the ABC transporter P-glycoprotein (P-gp, encoded by the ABCB gene) was assessed along with the cAMP/PKA signaling pathway regulating both gene expressions. At the physiological temperature of mussels (16 °C), Cu and OTC induced bimodal changes of cAMP levels and PKA activities in gills of exposed animals. A correlation between OTC- or Cu- induced changes of PKA activity and expression of hsp70 and ABCB was observed. Temperature increases (up to 24 °C) altered ABCB and hsp70 responses to the pollutants and disrupted their relationship with cAMP/PKA modulation, leading to loss of correlation between the biological endpoints. On the whole, the results indicate that temperature may impair the effects of inorganic and organic chemicals on the cAMP/PKA signaling pathway of mussels, in turn altering key molecular mediators of physiological plasticity and cytoprotection.}, }
@article {pmid32325298, year = {2020}, author = {Liang, L and Deng, X and Wang, P and Wang, Z and Wang, L}, title = {Assessment of the impact of climate change on cities livability in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {726}, number = {}, pages = {138339}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138339}, pmid = {32325298}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {As global warming worsens, climatic conditions in many regions are undergoing profound change, which could influence certain industries, such as agriculture and transportation, and affect the livability of cities. In this study, cities statistics and meteorological station data of the past decade in China were used to analyze the effect of climate change on cities livability. The livability of 288 Chinese cities during 2006-2016 was assessed using an analytic hierarchy process method. Results showed the mean cities livability index in China has improved about 12% throughout the past decade. Moreover, the Moran's I statistic and local indicators of spatial association revealed that the distribution of cities livability reflects a trend of gradual spatial agglomeration. In addition, geostatistical analysis was used to evaluate the impact of extreme weather events on cities livability. It was established that heatwaves and extreme precipitation events have significant impact on the livability of cities in southern China, whereas freezing weather drives the change of urban livability in northern areas. Combinations of different extreme weather conditions will have greater impact on urban livability. Based on mobile phone user data, the relationship between livability change and climate change in Chinese cities was elucidated to provide reference for urban environmental management.}, }
@article {pmid32322063, year = {2020}, author = {Trisos, CH and Merow, C and Pigot, AL}, title = {The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {580}, number = {7804}, pages = {496-501}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2189-9}, pmid = {32322063}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon1-3. However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 °C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species; however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 °C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.}, }
@article {pmid32321030, year = {2020}, author = {Ellwanger, JH and Kulmann-Leal, B and Kaminski, VL and Valverde-Villegas, JM and Veiga, ABGD and Spilki, FR and Fearnside, PM and Caesar, L and Giatti, LL and Wallau, GL and Almeida, SEM and Borba, MR and Hora, VPD and Chies, JAB}, title = {Beyond diversity loss and climate change: Impacts of Amazon deforestation on infectious diseases and public health.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {92}, number = {1}, pages = {e20191375}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765202020191375}, pmid = {32321030}, issn = {1678-2690}, abstract = {Amazonian biodiversity is increasingly threatened due to the weakening of policies for combating deforestation, especially in Brazil. Loss of animal and plant species, many not yet known to science, is just one among many negative consequences of Amazon deforestation. Deforestation affects indigenous communities, riverside as well as urban populations, and even planetary health. Amazonia has a prominent role in regulating the Earth's climate, with forest loss contributing to rising regional and global temperatures and intensification of extreme weather events. These climatic conditions are important drivers of emerging infectious diseases, and activities associated with deforestation contribute to the spread of disease vectors. This review presents the main impacts of Amazon deforestation on infectious-disease dynamics and public health from a One Health perspective. Because Brazil holds the largest area of Amazon rainforest, emphasis is given to the Brazilian scenario. Finally, potential solutions to mitigate deforestation and emerging infectious diseases are presented from the perspectives of researchers in different fields.}, }
@article {pmid32319066, year = {2020}, author = {Shabbir, G and Khaliq, T and Ahmad, A and Saqib, M}, title = {Assessing the climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for rice production in Punjab, Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08846-6}, pmid = {32319066}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Climate change is a serious threat to agriculture and food security. The development of adaptation measures is one of the key strategies to offset the climate change impacts on rice crop. A study was planned to develop adaptation strategies for future rice crop through simulation model. This study was consisted of six transplanting dates and three seedling densities which were tested to develop adaptations at three locations, i.e., Faisalabad, Hafizabad, and Gujranwala during the years 2015 and 2016. Climate change scenarios were developed for selected locations through statistical downscaling by selecting five general circulation models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs 8.5) for mid-century (2039-2069). The APSIM-ORYZA model was calibrated well with experimental data which showed an error of 2.35% between observed and simulated grain yield. The impact of climate change was studied by calculating the difference of baseline (1980-2010) and future yield. Model simulated results indicated that the rise in temperature will reduce the rice yield by 7.3%. To overcome this decrease in rice yield, suitable adaptation strategies were tested for mid-century. The developed adaptations, i.e., increased in plant population, nitrogen amount, and early transplanting, improved the rice yield by 8.7% under RCPs 8.5 for mid-century scenarios. Overall, this study provide better understanding of the adaptation processes for sustainable rice yield under anticipated future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32317801, year = {2020}, author = {Lawrence, J and Haasnoot, M and Lempert, R}, title = {Climate change: making decisions in the face of deep uncertainty.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {580}, number = {7804}, pages = {456}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-01147-5}, pmid = {32317801}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32317685, year = {2020}, author = {Cheung, WWL and Frölicher, TL}, title = {Marine heatwaves exacerbate climate change impacts for fisheries in the northeast Pacific.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {6678}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-63650-z}, pmid = {32317685}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have occurred in all ocean basins with severe negative impacts on coastal and ocean ecosystems. The northeast Pacific 2013-2015 MHW in particular received major societal concerns. Yet, our knowledge about how MHWs impact fish stocks is limited. Here, we combine outputs from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model with a fish impact model to simulate responses of major northeast Pacific fish stocks to MHWs. We show that MHWs cause biomass decrease and shifts in biogeography of fish stocks that are at least four times faster and bigger in magnitude than the effects of decadal-scale mean changes throughout the 21st century. With MHWs, we project a doubling of impact levels by 2050 amongst the most important fisheries species over previous assessments that focus only on long-term climate change. Our results underscore the additional challenges from MHWs for fisheries and their management under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32317639, year = {2020}, author = {Krabbenhoft, TJ and Myers, BJE and Wong, JP and Chu, C and Tingley, RW and Falke, JA and Kwak, TJ and Paukert, CP and Lynch, AJ}, title = {FiCli, the Fish and Climate Change Database, informs climate adaptation and management for freshwater fishes.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {124}, doi = {10.1038/s41597-020-0465-z}, pmid = {32317639}, issn = {2052-4463}, abstract = {Inland fishes provide important ecosystem services to communities worldwide and are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Fish respond to climate change in diverse and nuanced ways, which creates challenges for practitioners of fish conservation, climate change adaptation, and management. Although climate change is known to affect fish globally, a comprehensive online, public database of how climate change has impacted inland fishes worldwide and adaptation or management practices that may address these impacts does not exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify peer-reviewed journal publications describing projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes. From this standardized Fish and Climate Change database, FiCli (pronounced fick-lee), researchers and managers can query fish families, species, response types, or geographic locations to obtain summary information on inland fish responses to climate change and recommended management actions. The FiCli database is updatable and provides access to comprehensive published information to inform inland fish conservation and adaptation planning in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid32315590, year = {2020}, author = {Louis, M and Skovrind, M and Samaniego Castruita, JA and Garilao, C and Kaschner, K and Gopalakrishnan, S and Haile, JS and Lydersen, C and Kovacs, KM and Garde, E and Heide-Jørgensen, MP and Postma, L and Ferguson, SH and Willerslev, E and Lorenzen, ED}, title = {Influence of past climate change on phylogeography and demographic history of narwhals, Monodon monoceros.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {287}, number = {1925}, pages = {20192964}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2019.2964}, pmid = {32315590}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {The Arctic is warming at an unprecedented rate, with unknown consequences for endemic fauna. However, Earth has experienced severe climatic oscillations in the past, and understanding how species responded to them might provide insight into their resilience to near-future climatic predictions. Little is known about the responses of Arctic marine mammals to past climatic shifts, but narwhals (Monodon monoceros) are considered one of the endemic Arctic species most vulnerable to environmental change. Here, we analyse 121 complete mitochondrial genomes from narwhals sampled across their range and use them in combination with species distribution models to elucidate the influence of past and ongoing climatic shifts on their population structure and demographic history. We find low levels of genetic diversity and limited geographic structuring of genetic clades. We show that narwhals experienced a long-term low effective population size, which increased after the Last Glacial Maximum, when the amount of suitable habitat expanded. Similar post-glacial habitat release has been a key driver of population size expansion of other polar marine predators. Our analyses indicate that habitat availability has been critical to the success of narwhals, raising concerns for their fate in an increasingly warming Arctic.}, }
@article {pmid32313262, year = {2020}, author = {Li, G and Yin, B and Li, J and Wang, J and Wei, W and Bolnick, DI and Wan, X and Zhu, B and Zhang, Z}, title = {Host-microbiota interaction helps to explain the bottom-up effects of climate change on a small rodent species.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41396-020-0646-y}, pmid = {32313262}, issn = {1751-7370}, support = {31700344//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {The population cycles of small rodents have puzzled biologists for centuries. There is a growing recognition of the cascading effects of climate change on the population dynamics of rodents. However, the ultimate cause for the bottom-up effects of precipitation is poorly understood, from a microbial perspective. Here, we conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment in the field, and three feeding trials with controlled diets in the laboratory. We found precipitation supplementation facilitated the recovery of a perennial rhizomatous grass (Leymus chinensis) species, which altered the diet composition and increase the intake of fructose and fructooligosaccharides for Brandt's vole. Lab results showed that this nutrient shift was accompanied by the modulation of gut microbiota composition and functional pathways (especially for the degradation or biosynthesis of L-histidine). Particularly, the relative abundance of Eubacterium hallii was consistently increased after feeding voles with more L. chinensis, fructose or fructooligosaccharide. These modulations ultimately increased the production of short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) and boosted the growth of vole. This study provides evidence that the precipitation pulses cascades through the plant community to affect rodent gut microbiome. Our results highlight the importance of considering host-microbiota interaction when investigating rodent population responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32313242, year = {2020}, author = {Rocklöv, J and Dubrow, R}, title = {Climate change: an enduring challenge for vector-borne disease prevention and control.}, journal = {Nature immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41590-020-0648-y}, pmid = {32313242}, issn = {1529-2916}, support = {Formas Grant No. 2018-01754//Vetenskapsrådet (Swedish Research Council)/ ; }, }
@article {pmid32313241, year = {2020}, author = {Semenza, JC}, title = {Cascading risks of waterborne diseases from climate change.}, journal = {Nature immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41590-020-0631-7}, pmid = {32313241}, issn = {1529-2916}, }
@article {pmid32313137, year = {2020}, author = {Nishiyama, Y}, title = {Resilience under climate change.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41477-020-0639-x}, pmid = {32313137}, issn = {2055-0278}, }
@article {pmid32312964, year = {2020}, author = {Reverter, M and Sarter, S and Caruso, D and Avarre, JC and Combe, M and Pepey, E and Pouyaud, L and Vega-Heredía, S and de Verdal, H and Gozlan, RE}, title = {Aquaculture at the crossroads of global warming and antimicrobial resistance.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1870}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15735-6}, pmid = {32312964}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {In many developing countries, aquaculture is key to ensuring food security for millions of people. It is thus important to measure the full implications of environmental changes on the sustainability of aquaculture. We conduct a double meta-analysis (460 articles) to explore how global warming and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) impact aquaculture. We calculate a Multi-Antibiotic Resistance index (MAR) of aquaculture-related bacteria (11,274 isolates) for 40 countries, of which mostly low- and middle-income countries present high AMR levels. Here we show that aquaculture MAR indices correlate with MAR indices from human clinical bacteria, temperature and countries' climate vulnerability. We also find that infected aquatic animals present higher mortalities at warmer temperatures. Countries most vulnerable to climate change will probably face the highest AMR risks, impacting human health beyond the aquaculture sector, highlighting the need for urgent action. Sustainable solutions to minimise antibiotic use and increase system resilience are therefore needed.}, }
@article {pmid32310277, year = {2020}, author = {Inoue, S and Dang, QL and Man, R and Tedla, B}, title = {Photoperiod and CO2 elevation influence morphological and physiological responses to drought in trembling aspen: implications to climate change-induced migration.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpaa044}, pmid = {32310277}, issn = {1758-4469}, abstract = {Past research suggests that climate change will cause the climate envelopes of various tree species to shift higher latitudes and can lead to a northward migration of trees. However, the success and scope of the migration are likely affected by factors that are not contained in the climate envelope, such as photoperiod and interactive effects of multiple environmental factors, and these effects are currently not well understood. In this study, we investigated the interactive effects of CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), photoperiod, and soil moisture on the morphological and physiological traits of Populus tremuloides Michx.. We grew seedlings under two [CO2] (AC 400 vs. EC 1000 μmol mol-1), four photoperiod regimes (growing season photoperiods at 48 (seed origin), 52, 55, and 58°N latitude) and two soil moisture regimes (high (HSM) vs. low (LSM, -2 MP) for two growing seasons in greenhouses. Both morphological and physiological responses were observed. The LSM reduced leaf size, total leaf area and height growth by 33%, 46%, and 12%, respectively, and increased root/shoot ratio by 20%. The smaller leaf area and increased root/shoot ratio allowed the seedlings in LSM to maintain higher Vcmax and Jmax than control seedlings (55% and 83% higher in July, 52% and 70% in August, respectively). Photoperiod and [CO2] modified responses to LSM and LSM altered responses to photoperiod and [CO2], e.g., the August photosynthetic rate was 44% higher in LSM than in HSM under EC but no such a difference existed under AC. The increase in Vcmax and Jmax in response to LSM varied with photoperiod (Vcmax: 36% at 52°N, 22% at 55°N, 47% at 58°N; Jmax: 29% at 52°N, 21% at 55°N, 45% at 58°N). Stomatal conductance and its reduction in response to LSM declined with increasing photoperiod, which can have significant implications for soil moisture effect on northward migration. This study highlights the need to consider the complex interactions of [CO2], photoperiod and soil moisture when planning assisted migration or predicting the natural migration of boreal forests in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32304458, year = {2020}, author = {Durieux, ME}, title = {&quot;Primum Non Nocere&quot;: Global Health and Climate Change.}, journal = {Anesthesia and analgesia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1213/ANE.0000000000004815}, pmid = {32304458}, issn = {1526-7598}, }
@article {pmid32304066, year = {2020}, author = {Bakhsh, K and Abbas, K and Hassan, S and Yasin, MA and Ali, R and Ahmad, N and Chattha, MWA}, title = {Climate change-induced human conflicts and economic costs in Pakistani Punjab.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08607-5}, pmid = {32304066}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Understanding causes of interpersonal conflicts, related costs, and the effects on investment in agriculture are important concerns of social sciences. The present study was designed to explore these aspects in relation to climate change, since rising temperature and precipitation are considered crucial causal factors in fueling interpersonal conflicts. The study used cross-sectional data collected from rural farm households from a large district of Pakistani Punjab. Cost of conflicts was estimated using standard economic methods whereas factors affecting interpersonal conflicts were estimated through employing logit model. The study found that interpersonal conflicts cost US$135 per month for following the proceedings of the conflicts filed in the court. Households involved in conflicts spent significantly very few resources in purchasing farm inputs which in turn declined productivity of maize (28%) and sugarcane (19%). Warm temperature, precipitation, and windstorm were perceived by households as causal factors for interpersonal conflicts. Socioeconomic characteristics namely, farm size, livestock, family size, and high monthly income of household, were significantly associated with interpersonal conflicts. The study concludes important policy implications.}, }
@article {pmid32303671, year = {2020}, author = {Huang, C and Shi, G}, title = {Climate Change to Blame in Severe Oral Corticosteroid-Dependent Asthma? A Case Report.}, journal = {The American journal of case reports}, volume = {21}, number = {}, pages = {e921120}, doi = {10.12659/AJCR.921120}, pmid = {32303671}, issn = {1941-5923}, abstract = {BACKGROUND Despite the availability of inhaled corticosteroid and the development of various biological treatment agents, severe asthma patients are still at high risk of recurrent and life-threatening exacerbations, which results in morbidity and mortality. In addition to treatment response variability, incorrect inhaler technique, poor adherence, and major psychological problems, environmental factors such as climate change also are contributory factors for worsen symptoms of asthma and acute exacerbation. We present here, a case of a 63-year-old female patient who had oral corticosteroid-dependent severe asthma and recurrent attacks in spring and autumn. CASE REPORT A 63-year-old Chinese female was diagnosed with asthma when she was 3 years old. During 2007-2011, she was admitted to the hospital once a year because of asthma exacerbation; she was on a regular treatment regimen of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) plus long-acting beta-agonist (LABA). In October 2018, she was admitted to our Department for aggravating symptoms due to &quot;sudden climate change&quot;. She was discharged on tapering doses of oral methylprednisolone from 32 mg once daily, but the reduced methylprednisolone resulted in aggravation of wheezing. However, when the weather warmed up, her symptoms were relieved, and she stopped taking methylprednisolone (after the tapering). CONCLUSIONS This study suggests an association between the common causes of weather changes and acute severe asthma exacerbation. Patients and clinicians should be aware that keeping warm and avoiding exposure to cold air and airborne allergens might reduce the frequency of asthma exacerbations.}, }
@article {pmid32302868, year = {2020}, author = {Huber, V and Krummenauer, L and Peña-Ortiz, C and Lange, S and Gasparrini, A and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Garcia-Herrera, R and Frieler, K}, title = {Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {186}, number = {}, pages = {109447}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109447}, pmid = {32302868}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe.<br><br>METHODS: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability.<br><br>RESULTS: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 °C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 °C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 °C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 °C, compared to today's warming level of 1 °C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 °C versus 1 °C of GMT rise.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.}, }
@article {pmid32302051, year = {2020}, author = {Rushing, CS and Rubenstein, M and Lyons, JE and Runge, MC}, title = {Using value of information to prioritize research needs for migratory bird management under climate change: a case study using federal land acquisition in the United States.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12602}, pmid = {32302051}, issn = {1469-185X}, abstract = {In response to global habitat loss, many governmental and non-governmental organizations have implemented land acquisition programs to protect critical habitats permanently for priority species. The ability of these protected areas to meet future management objectives may be compromised if the effects of climate change are not considered in acquisition decisions. Unfortunately, the effects of climate change on ecological systems are complex and plagued by uncertainty, making it difficult for organizations to prioritize research needs to improve decision-making. Herein, we demonstrate the use of qualitative value of information analysis to identify and prioritize which sources of uncertainty should be reduced to improve land acquisition decisions to protect migratory birds in the face of climate change. The qualitative value of information analysis process involves four steps: (i) articulating alternative hypotheses; (ii) determining the magnitude of uncertainty regarding each hypothesis; (iii) evaluating the relevance of each hypothesis to acquisition decision-making; and (iv) assessing the feasibility of reducing the uncertainty surrounding each hypothesis through research and monitoring. We demonstrate this approach using the objectives of 3 U.S. federal land acquisition programs that focus on migratory bird management. We used a comprehensive literature review, expert elicitation, and professional judgement to evaluate 11 hypotheses about the effect of climate change on migratory birds. Based on our results, we provide a list of priorities for future research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty and improve land acquisition decisions for the programs considered in our case study. Reducing uncertainty about how climate change will influence the spatial distribution of priority species and biotic homogenization were identified as the highest priorities for future research due to both the value of this information for improving land acquisition decisions and the feasibility of reducing uncertainty through research and monitoring. Research on how changes in precipitation patterns and winter severity will influence migratory bird abundance is also expected to benefit land acquisition decisions. By contrast, hypotheses about phenology and migration distance were identified as low priorities for research. By providing a rigorous and transparent approach to prioritizing research, we demonstrate that qualitative value of information is a valuable tool for prioritizing research and improving management decisions in other complex, high-uncertainty cases where traditional quantitative value of information analysis is not possible. Given the inherent complexity of ecological systems under climate change, and the difficulty of identifying management-relevant research priorities, we expect this approach to have wide applications within the field of natural resource management.}, }
@article {pmid32301569, year = {2020}, author = {Albrich, K and Rammer, W and Seidl, R}, title = {Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15118}, pmid = {32301569}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remains incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual-based forest landscape model iLand we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30 % reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer-dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.}, }
@article {pmid32298879, year = {2020}, author = {Simmons, AT and Cowie, AL and Brock, PM}, title = {Climate change mitigation for Australian wheat production.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {725}, number = {}, pages = {138260}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138260}, pmid = {32298879}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change threatens humanity yet the provision of food that supports humanity is a major source of greenhouse gases, which exacerbates that threatening process. Developing strategies to reduce the emissions associated with key global commodities is essential to mitigate the impacts of climate change. To date, however, there have been no studies that have estimated the potential to reduce GHG emissions associated with the production of wheat, a key global commodity, at a national scale through changes to wheat production systems. Here, we assess the consequences for net GHG emissions of Australian wheat production from applying three changes to wheat production systems: increasing the rates of fertiliser N to achieve the water-limited yield potential; increasing the frequency of lime applications on acid soils; and changing a two year cropping rotation (from wheat-wheat to legume-wheat). We predict that applying these three changes across the key wheat growing regions in Australia would increase production of wheat and legumes by 17.8 and 5.3 Mt, respectively, over the two-year period. Intensifying Australian production would reduce the need to produce wheat and legumes elsewhere in the world. This would free up agricultural land at the global scale and avoid the need to convert forestland and grassland to cropping lands to meet increasing global demands for wheat. We find that applying these changes across wheat growing zones would reduce the GHGs associated with Australian wheat production by 18.4 Mt CO2-e over the two-year period. Our research supports the notion that intensification of existing agricultural production can provide climate change mitigation. The impacts of intensification on other environmental indicators also need to be considered by policy makers.}, }
@article {pmid32298349, year = {2020}, author = {Allyn, AJ and Alexander, MA and Franklin, BS and Massiot-Granier, F and Pershing, AJ and Scott, JD and Mills, KE}, title = {Comparing and synthesizing quantitative distribution models and qualitative vulnerability assessments to project marine species distributions under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e0231595}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0231595}, pmid = {32298349}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Species distribution shifts are a widely reported biological consequence of climate-driven warming across marine ecosystems, creating ecological and social challenges. To meet these challenges and inform management decisions, we need accurate projections of species distributions. Quantitative species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely used to make these projections, while qualitative climate change vulnerability assessments are becoming more common. We constructed SDMs, compared SDM projections to expectations from a qualitative expert climate change vulnerability assessment, and developed a novel approach for combining the two methods to project the distribution and relative biomass of 49 marine species in the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem under a &quot;business as usual&quot; climate change scenario. A forecasting experiment using SDMs highlighted their ability to capture relative biomass patterns fairly well (mean Pearson's correlation coefficient between predicted and observed biomass = 0.24, range = 0-0.6) and pointed to areas needing improvement, including reducing prediction error and better capturing fine-scale spatial variability. SDM projections suggest the region will undergo considerable biological changes, especially in the Gulf of Maine, where commercially-important groundfish and traditional forage species are expected to decline as coastal fish species and warmer-water forage species historically found in the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Bight area increase. The SDM projections only occasionally aligned with vulnerability assessment expectations, with agreement more common for species with adult mobility and population growth rates that showed low sensitivity to climate change. Although our blended approach tried to build from the strengths of each method, it had no noticeable improvement in predictive ability over SDMs. This work rigorously evaluates the predictive ability of SDMs, quantifies expected species distribution shifts under future climate conditions, and tests a new approach for integrating SDMs and vulnerability assessments to help address the complex challenges arising from climate-driven species distribution shifts.}, }
@article {pmid32296143, year = {2020}, author = {Peng, B and Guan, K and Tang, J and Ainsworth, EA and Asseng, S and Bernacchi, CJ and Cooper, M and Delucia, EH and Elliott, JW and Ewert, F and Grant, RF and Gustafson, DI and Hammer, GL and Jin, Z and Jones, JW and Kimm, H and Lawrence, DM and Li, Y and Lombardozzi, DL and Marshall-Colon, A and Messina, CD and Ort, DR and Schnable, JC and Vallejos, CE and Wu, A and Yin, X and Zhou, W}, title = {Towards a multiscale crop modelling framework for climate change adaptation assessment.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {338-348}, doi = {10.1038/s41477-020-0625-3}, pmid = {32296143}, issn = {2055-0278}, support = {1847334//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1852977//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1847334//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1852977//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1847334//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1852977//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1847334//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 80NSSC18K0170/NASA/NASA/United States ; 80NSSC18K0170/NASA/NASA/United States ; 80NSSC18K0170/NASA/NASA/United States ; 80NSSC18K0170/NASA/NASA/United States ; 2017-67013-26253//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 2017-68002-26789//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 2017-67013-26253//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 2017-68002-26789//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 2017-68002-26789//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 2017-68002-26789//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 2017-68002-26789//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 2017-67013-26253//U.S. Department of Agriculture (United States Department of Agriculture)/ ; 602757//Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR)/ ; 602757//Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR)/ ; 602757//Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR)/ ; 602757//Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR)/ ; 602757//Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR)/ ; }, abstract = {Predicting the consequences of manipulating genotype (G) and agronomic management (M) on agricultural ecosystem performances under future environmental (E) conditions remains a challenge. Crop modelling has the potential to enable society to assess the efficacy of G × M technologies to mitigate and adapt crop production systems to climate change. Despite recent achievements, dedicated research to develop and improve modelling capabilities from gene to global scales is needed to provide guidance on designing G × M adaptation strategies with full consideration of their impacts on both crop productivity and ecosystem sustainability under varying climatic conditions. Opportunities to advance the multiscale crop modelling framework include representing crop genetic traits, interfacing crop models with large-scale models, improving the representation of physiological responses to climate change and management practices, closing data gaps and harnessing multisource data to improve model predictability and enable identification of emergent relationships. A fundamental challenge in multiscale prediction is the balance between process details required to assess the intervention and predictability of the system at the scales feasible to measure the impact. An advanced multiscale crop modelling framework will enable a gene-to-farm design of resilient and sustainable crop production systems under a changing climate at regional-to-global scales.}, }
@article {pmid32295792, year = {2020}, author = {Scheerens, C and Ruyssen, I and Ray, S and De Sutter, A and Vanhove, W and Bekaert, E and Mash, B and Decat, P and De Maeseneer, J}, title = {Tackling adverse health effects of climate change and migration through intersectoral capacity building in Sub-Saharan Africa.}, journal = {BJGP open}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3399/bjgpopen20X101065}, pmid = {32295792}, issn = {2398-3795}, }
@article {pmid32292221, year = {2020}, author = {Pritchard, EC}, title = {IChemE Special Issue on Climate Change.}, journal = {Chemical engineering research &amp; design : transactions of the Institution of Chemical Engineers}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cherd.2020.04.001}, pmid = {32292221}, issn = {0263-8762}, }
@article {pmid32291288, year = {2020}, author = {O'Connor, C and Kiely, L and O'Riordan, A and O'Connell, G and Bennett, M and O'Shea, S and Murphy, LA and Bourke, J and Murphy, M}, title = {A change of climate for climate change: the environmental benefit of specialty outreach clinics.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {369}, number = {}, pages = {m1410}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.m1410}, pmid = {32291288}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid32288342, year = {2010}, author = {Ford, JD and Berrang-Ford, L and King, M and Furgal, C}, title = {Vulnerability of Aboriginal health systems in Canada to climate change.}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {668-680}, doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.05.003}, pmid = {32288342}, issn = {0959-3780}, abstract = {Climate change has been identified as potentially the biggest health threat of the 21st century. Canada in general has a well developed public health system and low burden of health which will moderate vulnerability. However, there is significant heterogeneity in health outcomes, and health inequality is particularly pronounced among Aboriginal Canadians. Intervention is needed to prevent, prepare for, and manage climate change effects on Aboriginal health but is constrained by a limited understanding of vulnerability and its determinants. Despite limited research on climate change and Aboriginal health, however, there is a well established literature on Aboriginal health outcomes, determinants, and trends in Canada; characteristics that will determine vulnerability to climate change. In this paper we systematically review this literature, using a vulnerability framework to identify the broad level factors constraining adaptive capacity and increasing sensitivity to climate change. Determinants identified include: poverty, technological capacity constraints, socio-political values and inequality, institutional capacity challenges, and information deficit. The magnitude and nature of these determinants will be distributed unevenly within and between Aboriginal populations necessitating place-based and regional level studies to examine how these broad factors will affect vulnerability at lower levels. The study also supports the need for collaboration across all sectors and levels of government, open and meaningful dialogue between policy makers, scientists, health professionals, and Aboriginal communities, and capacity building at a local level, to plan for climate change. Ultimately, however, efforts to reduce the vulnerability of Aboriginal Canadians to climate change and intervene to prevent, reduce, and manage climate-sensitive health outcomes, will fail unless the broader determinants of socio-economic and health inequality are addressed.}, }
@article {pmid32288341, year = {2005}, author = {Becken, S}, title = {Harmonising climate change adaptation and mitigation: The case of tourist resorts in Fiji.}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {381-393}, doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.08.001}, pmid = {32288341}, issn = {0959-3780}, abstract = {Tourism in island states is vulnerable to climate change because it may result in detrimental changes in relation to extreme events, sea level rise, transport and communication interruption. This study analyses adaptation to climate change by tourist resorts in Fiji, as well as their potential to reduce climate change through reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. Interviews, site visitations, and an accommodation survey were undertaken. Many operators already prepare for climate-related events and therefore adapt to potential impacts resulting from climate change. Reducing emissions is not important to operators; however, decreasing energy costs for economic reasons is practised. Recommendations for further initiatives are made and synergies between the adaptation and mitigation approaches are explored.}, }
@article {pmid32287413, year = {2015}, author = {Kim, J}, title = {Comparing the economic effects of climate change and zooanthroponosis in Korea: Prerequisites for the creative economy?.}, journal = {Technological forecasting and social change}, volume = {96}, number = {}, pages = {121-129}, doi = {10.1016/j.techfore.2015.02.012}, pmid = {32287413}, issn = {0040-1625}, abstract = {Societies in the 21st century require more proactive management of risks in many areas owing to the complexities people have built into socioeconomic systems, ranging from science and technology, economics, and finance to education, entertainment, and tourism infrastructure. All these systems thrive on stability, which can easily be challenged by unexpected risks. This study compares zooanthroponosis and climate change-induced sea level rise through a cost-benefit analysis in Korea. Borrowing from other methodological approaches, this study shows that the cost-benefit estimation is consistent with the existing macroeconomic speculations, which assume potential loss of GDP due to the two risks. This paper also presents a policy alternative of creating research institutions specializing in the two risks from a cost-benefit perspective as a prerequisite for the &quot;Creative Economy&quot;.}, }
@article {pmid32287395, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {Confronting the Pandemic Superthreat of Climate Change and Urbanization.}, journal = {Orbis}, volume = {63}, number = {4}, pages = {565-581}, doi = {10.1016/j.orbis.2019.08.006}, pmid = {32287395}, issn = {0030-4387}, }
@article {pmid32288343, year = {2019}, author = {Vu, HT and Liu, Y and Tran, DV}, title = {Nationalizing a global phenomenon: A study of how the press in 45 countries and territories portrays climate change.}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {58}, number = {}, pages = {101942}, doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101942}, pmid = {32288343}, issn = {0959-3780}, abstract = {This study investigates the news coverage of climate change in 45 different countries and territories. Using the news framing approach, this study identifies the connections between several national socioeconomic, governance, and environmental traits and the portrayals of climate change. Although climate change is a global issue that affects every country in the world, how the news media frame it varies from country to country. Such a variation is related to each country's economic development, climate severity, and governance. The findings of this study contribute to framing literature by assessing frame use in national contexts, filling in the gap in the application of this theoretical framework.}, }
@article {pmid32286277, year = {2020}, author = {Scanes, E and Scanes, PR and Ross, PM}, title = {Climate change rapidly warms and acidifies Australian estuaries.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1803}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15550-z}, pmid = {32286277}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate change is impacting ecosystems worldwide. Estuaries are diverse and important aquatic ecosystems; and yet until now we have lacked information on the response of estuaries to climate change. Here we present data from a twelve-year monitoring program, involving 6200 observations of 166 estuaries along >1100 kilometres of the Australian coastline encompassing all estuary morphologies. Estuary temperatures increased by 2.16 °C on average over 12 years, at a rate of 0.2 °C year-1, with waters acidifying at a rate of 0.09 pH units and freshening at 0.086 PSU year-1. The response of estuaries to climate change is dependent on their morphology. Lagoons and rivers are warming and acidifying at the fastest rate because of shallow average depths and limited oceanic exchange. The changes measured are an order of magnitude faster than predicted by global ocean and atmospheric models, indicating that existing global models may not be useful to predict change in estuaries.}, }
@article {pmid32286257, year = {2020}, author = {Wei, YM and Han, R and Wang, C and Yu, B and Liang, QM and Yuan, XC and Chang, J and Zhao, Q and Liao, H and Tang, B and Yan, J and Cheng, L and Yang, Z}, title = {Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1624}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15453-z}, pmid = {32286257}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {National Key R&amp;D Program of China (2016YFA0602603)//Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology)/ ; 71521002//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 71822401//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 71603020//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; JQ19035//Natural Science Foundation of Beijing Municipality (Beijing Natural Science Foundation)/ ; }, abstract = {A strategy that informs on countries' potential losses due to lack of climate action may facilitate global climate governance. Here, we quantify a distribution of mitigation effort whereby each country is economically better off than under current climate pledges. This effort-sharing optimizing approach applied to a 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming threshold suggests self-preservation emissions trajectories to inform NDCs enhancement and long-term strategies. Results show that following the current emissions reduction efforts, the whole world would experience a washout of benefit, amounting to almost 126.68-616.12 trillion dollars until 2100 compared to 1.5 °C or well below 2 °C commensurate action. If countries are even unable to implement their current NDCs, the whole world would lose more benefit, almost 149.78-791.98 trillion dollars until 2100. On the contrary, all countries will be able to have a significant positive cumulative net income before 2100 if they follow the self-preservation strategy.}, }
@article {pmid32285562, year = {2020}, author = {Matz, MV and Treml, EA and Haller, BC}, title = {Estimating the potential for coral adaptation to global warming across the Indo-West Pacific.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15060}, pmid = {32285562}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {OCE-1737312//National Science Foundation/ ; //U.S. Navy/ ; //Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office/ ; }, abstract = {The potential of reef-building corals to adapt to increasing sea-surface temperatures is often debated but has rarely been comprehensively modeled on a region-wide scale. We used individual-based simulations to model adaptation to warming in a coral metapopulation comprising 680 reefs and representing the whole of the Central Indo-West Pacific. Encouragingly, some reefs-most notably Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, New Caledonia and the southern half of the Great Barrier Reef-exhibited high capacity for adaptation and, in our model, maintained coral cover even under a rapid &quot;business-as-usual&quot; warming scenario throughout the modeled period (200 years). Higher resilience of these reefs was observed under all tested parameter settings except the models prohibiting selection and/or migration during warming. At the same time, the majority of reefs in the region tended to collapse within the first 100 years of warming. The adaptive potential (odds of maintaining high coral cover) of a given reef could be predicted based on two metrics: the reef's present-day temperature, and the proportion of recruits immigrating from warmer locations. The latter metric explains the most variation in adaptive potential, and significantly correlates with actual coral cover changes observed throughout the region between the 1970s and the early 2000s. These findings will help prioritize coral conservation efforts and plan assisted gene flow interventions to boost the adaptive potential of specific coral populations.}, }
@article {pmid32284814, year = {2020}, author = {Melore, TW and Nel, V}, title = {Resilience of informal settlements to climate change in the mountainous areas of Konso, Ethiopia and QwaQwa, South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {778}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v12i1.778}, pmid = {32284814}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Managing change is essential for human survival; thus, the importance of adapting to climate change has been increasingly recognised by researchers and governments alike. This is reflected in the growing literature on climate change and the imperative for action including building resilience in our socio-ecological systems. Despite the large body of research that now exists, few studies have considered the resilience of informal rural or peri-urban settlements in mountainous regions. This article considered the resilience of two rural settlements in mountainous areas, namely Konso, Ethiopia, and QwaQwa, South Africa, to the influences of climate change based on the assets available to them. The authors obtained the local communities' perception of their risks throsugh interviews with community leaders and a survey of 384 residents, divided equally between each settlement. Furthermore, the resilience of each community was assessed on the basis of their environmental, social, economic, human, institutional and physical capitals using a climate change resilience indicator. The findings showed that both communities faced major challenges because of climate change, particularly from drought and poverty. We found that both communities retained some forms of indigenous knowledge, but its greater application in Konso appeared to improve resilience to a greater extent than QwaQwa, where it played a lesser role and the community was more dependent on the government. However, indigenous knowledge alone is not sufficient to support these communities in the long term, given the growing aridity of the regions, and other approaches are also necessary, including government support, to enhance and grow their capitals.}, }
@article {pmid32284416, year = {2020}, author = {Rockman, M and Hritz, C}, title = {Expanding use of archaeology in climate change response by changing its social environment.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1914213117}, pmid = {32284416}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate science has outlined targets for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions necessary to provide a substantial chance of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change on both natural and human systems. How to reach those targets, however, requires balancing physical realities of the natural environment with the complexity of the human social environment, including histories, cultures, and values. Archaeology is the study of interactions of natural and social environments through time and across space. As well, the field of cultural resources management, which includes archaeology, regularly engages with values such as site significance and allocation of funding that the modern social environment ascribes to its own history. Through these two approaches, archaeology has potential to provide both data for and methods of addressing challenges the global community faces through climate change. To date, however, archaeology and related areas of cultural heritage have had relatively little role in the global climate response. Here, we assess the social environment of archaeology and climate change and resulting structural barriers that have limited use of archaeology in and for climate change with a case study of the US federal government. On this basis, we provide recommendations to the fields of archaeology and climate response about how to more fully realize the multiple potential uses of archaeology for the challenges of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32284415, year = {2020}, author = {Dawson, T and Hambly, J and Kelley, A and Lees, W and Miller, S}, title = {Coastal heritage, global climate change, public engagement, and citizen science.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1912246117}, pmid = {32284415}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate change is threatening an uncalculated number of archaeological sites globally, totaling perhaps hundreds of thousands of culturally and paleoenvironmentally significant resources. As with all archaeological sites, they provide evidence of humanity's past and help us understand our place in the present world. Coastal sites, clustered at the water's edge, are already experiencing some of the most dramatic damage due to anthropogenic climate change, and the situation is predicted to worsen in the future. In the face of catastrophic loss, organizations around the world are developing new ways of working with this threatened coastal resource. This paper uses three examples from Scotland, Florida, and Maine to highlight how new partnerships and citizen science approaches are building communities of practice to better manage threatened coastal heritage. It compares methods on either side of the Atlantic and highlights challenges and solutions. The approaches are applicable to the increasing number of heritage sites everywhere at risk from climate change; the study of coastal sites thus helps society prepare for climate change impacts to heritage worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid32284400, year = {2020}, author = {Douglass, K and Cooper, J}, title = {Archaeology, environmental justice, and climate change on islands of the Caribbean and southwestern Indian Ocean.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1914211117}, pmid = {32284400}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate change impacts island communities all over the world. Sea-level rise, an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and changes in distribution and health of marine organisms are among the most significant processes affecting island communities worldwide. On islands of the Caribbean and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO), however, today's climate change impacts are magnified by historical environmental injustice and colonial legacies, which have heightened the vulnerability of human and other biotic communities. For some islands, archaeological and paleoecological research offers an important record of precolonial climate change and its interplay with human lives and landscapes. The archaeological record suggests strategies and mechanisms that can inform discussions of resilience in the face of climate change. We detail climate-related challenges facing island Caribbean and SWIO communities using archaeological and paleoecological evidence for past climate change and human response and argue that these cannot be successfully addressed without an understanding of the processes that have, over time, disrupted livelihoods, reshaped land- and seascapes, threatened intergenerational ecological knowledge transfer, and led to increased inequality and climate vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid32281711, year = {2020}, author = {Rees, G and Hofgaard, A and Boudreau, S and Cairns, D and Harper, K and Mamet, S and Mathisen, I and Swirad, Z and Tutubalina, O}, title = {Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15113}, pmid = {32281711}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest-tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site-specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterised by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviour, and the importance of non-growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/yr.) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/yr.). These rates were 1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103 -104 m/yr.) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradicts equilibrium model-based assumptions and warrants caution when assessing global change related biotic and abiotic implications, including land-atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration.}, }
@article {pmid32281209, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, B and Gao, X and Zheng, K and Ma, J and Jiao, Z and Xiao, J and Wang, H}, title = {The potential distribution and dynamics of important vectors Culex pipiens pallens and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus in China under climate change scenarios: An ecological niche modelling approach.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.5861}, pmid = {32281209}, issn = {1526-4998}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Intense studies have been carried out on the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases and vectors. Culex pipiens pallens and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus are two medically concerned mosquito species in temperate and tropical areas, which serve as important disease-transmitting pests of a variety of diseases. The ongoing geographically expansion of these mosquitoes has brought an increasing threat to public health.<br><br>RESULTS: Based on mosquito occurrence records and high-resolution environmental layers, an ecological niche model was established to model their current and future potential distribution in China. Our model showed that the current suitable area for Cx. p. pallens is distributed in the central, eastern and northern parts of China, while Cx. p. quinquefasciatus is distributed in vast areas in southern China. Under future climate change scenarios, both species were predicted to expand their range to varying degrees and RCP 8.5 provides the largest expansion. Northward core shifts will occur in ranges of both species. Environmental variables which have significant impact on the distribution of mosquitoes were also revealed by our model.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Severe habitat expansion of vectors is likely to occur in the future 21st century. Our models mapped the high-risk areas and risk factors which needs to be paid attention. The results of our study can be referenced in further ecological surveys and will guide the development of strategies for the prevention and control of vector-borne diseases. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid32280366, year = {2020}, author = {Neumann, JE and Willwerth, J and Martinich, J and McFarland, J and Sarofim, MC and Yohe, G}, title = {Climate damage functions for estimating the economic impacts of climate change in the United States.}, journal = {Review of environmental economics and policy}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {25-43}, doi = {10.1093/reep/rez021}, pmid = {32280366}, issn = {1750-6824}, }
@article {pmid32277350, year = {2020}, author = {Bakare, AG and Kour, G and Akter, M and Iji, PA}, title = {Impact of climate change on sustainable livestock production and existence of wildlife and marine species in the South Pacific island countries: a review.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01902-3}, pmid = {32277350}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant threat to humanity by intensifying multiple hazards. South Pacific Island countries (SPICs) are affected and face a dire challenge to survival. Sea level rise is reducing the already limited land for human and animal habitation. Tropical cyclones and droughts are having devastating effects on the lives of humans and animals. Tropical cyclone Winston, for example, destroyed infrastructure for humans and animals in some parts of Fiji, and infectious diseases are spreading to regions where they are not commonly seen following cyclones and floods. Likewise, climate change is making droughts worse. Droughts are destroying crops and pasturelands and making freshwater unavailable for human and animal populations in the Solomon Islands and Tuvalu. There is an urgent need to ascertain the best approaches to tackle the events, which are already happening. Short-term changes can be managed at local levels through public awareness campaigns, understanding the weather patterns to prepare for disasters, reclaiming land, improving livestock breeds, introducing zoos and wildlife sanctuaries and inventing economically feasible technologies to harvest water. Long-term solutions depend on the implementation of international agreements, international aid and collective effort.}, }
@article {pmid32275738, year = {2020}, author = {Naccarella, A and Morgan, JW and Cutler, SC and Venn, SE}, title = {Alpine treeline ecotone stasis in the face of recent climate change and disturbance by fire.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e0231339}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0231339}, pmid = {32275738}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {How species respond to climate change will depend on biological characteristics, species physiological limits, traits (such as dispersal), and interactions with disturbance. We examine multi-decadal shifts in the distribution of trees at the alpine treeline in response to regional warming and repeated disturbance by fire in the Victorian Alps, south-east Australia. Alpine treelines are composed of Eucalyptus pauciflora subsp. niphophila (Snow Gum, Myrtaceae) species. The location and basal girth of all trees and saplings were recorded across treelines at four mountains in 2002 and 2018. We quantify changes in treeline position (sapling recruitment above treeline) over time in relation to warming and disturbance by fire, and examine changes in stand structure below treeline (stand density, size class analyses). Short-distance advance of the treeline occurred between 2002 and 2018, but was largely restricted to areas that were unburned during this period. No saplings were seen above treeline after two fires, despite evidence that saplings were common pre-fire. Below treeline, subalpine woodland stands were largely resilient to fire; trees resprouted from lignotubers. However, small trees were reduced in number in woodlands when burned twice within a decade. Population dynamics at the alpine treeline were responsive to recent climate change, but other factors (e.g. disturbance) are crucial to understand recruitment trends. Establishment of saplings above treeline was largely restricted to unburned areas. These results indicate fire is a strong demographic filter on treeline dynamics; there is a clear need to frame alpine treeline establishment processes beyond just being a response to climate warming. Long lag periods in treeline change may be expected where recurrent disturbance is a feature of the landscape.}, }
@article {pmid32274060, year = {2020}, author = {Chan, KYK and Tong, CSD}, title = {Temporal variability modulates pH impact on larval sea urchin development: Themed Issue Article: Biomechanics and Climate Change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {coaa008}, doi = {10.1093/conphys/coaa008}, pmid = {32274060}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Coastal organisms reside in highly dynamic habitats. Global climate change is expected to alter not only the mean of the physical conditions experienced but also the frequencies and/or the magnitude of fluctuations of environmental factors. Understanding responses in an ecologically relevant context is essential for formulating management strategies. In particular, there are increasing suggestions that exposure to fluctuations could alleviate the impact of climate change-related stressors by selecting for plasticity that may help acclimatization to future conditions. However, it remains unclear whether the presence of fluctuations alone is sufficient to confer such effects or whether the pattern of the fluctuations matters. Therefore, we investigated the role of frequency and initial conditions of the fluctuations on performance by exposing larval sea urchin Heliocidaris crassispina to either constant or fluctuating pH. Reduced pH alone (pH 7.3 vs 8.0) did not affect larval mortality but reduced the growth of larval arms in the static pH treatments. Changes in morphology could affect the swimming mechanics for these small organisms, and geometric morphometric analysis further suggested an overall shape change such that acidified larvae had more U-shaped bodies and shorter arms, which would help maintain stability in moving water. The relative negative impact of lower pH, computed as log response ratio, on larval arm development was smaller when larvae were exposed to pH fluctuations, especially when the change was less frequent (48- vs 24-h cycle). Furthermore, larvae experiencing an initial pH drop, i.e. those where the cycle started at pH 8.0, were more negatively impacted compared with those kept at an initial pH of 7.3 before the cycling started. Our observations suggest that larval responses to climate change stress could not be easily predicted from mean conditions. Instead, to better predict organismal performance in the future ocean, monitoring and investigation of the role of real-time environmental fluctuations along the dispersive pathway is key.}, }
@article {pmid32274006, year = {2020}, author = {Stewart-Sinclair, PJ and Last, KS and Payne, BL and Wilding, TA}, title = {A global assessment of the vulnerability of shellfish aquaculture to climate change and ocean acidification.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {3518-3534}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.6149}, pmid = {32274006}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Human-induced climate change and ocean acidification (CC-OA) is changing the physical and biological processes occurring within the marine environment, with poorly understood implications for marine life. Within the aquaculture sector, molluskan culture is a relatively benign method of producing a high-quality, healthy, and sustainable protein source for the expanding human population. We modeled the vulnerability of global bivalve mariculture to impacts of CC-OA over the period 2020-2100, under RCP8.5. Vulnerability, assessed at the national level, was dependent on CC-OA-related exposure, taxon-specific sensitivity and adaptive capacity in the sector. Exposure risk increased over time from 2020 to 2100, with ten nations predicted to experience very high exposure to CC-OA in at least one decade during the period 2020-2100. Predicted high sensitivity in developing countries resulted, primarily, from the cultivation of species that have a narrow habitat tolerance, while in some European nations (France, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) high sensitivity was attributable to the relatively high economic value of the shellfish production sector. Predicted adaptive capacity was low in developing countries primarily due to governance issues, while in some developed countries (Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom) it was linked to limited species diversity in the sector. Developing and least developed nations (n = 15) were predicted to have the highest overall vulnerability. Across all nations, 2060 was identified as a tipping point where predicted CC-OA will be associated with the greatest challenge to shellfish production. However, rapid declines in mollusk production are predicted to occur in the next decade for some nations, notably North Korea. Shellfish culture offers human society a low-impact source of sustainable protein. This research highlights, on a global scale, the likely extent and nature of the CC-OA-related threat to shellfish culture and this sector enabling early-stage adaption and mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid32272899, year = {2020}, author = {Domche, GN and Valois, P and Canuel, M and Talbot, D and Tessier, M and Aenishaenslin, C and Bouchard, C and Briand, S}, title = {Telephone versus web panel National Survey for monitoring adoption of preventive behaviors to climate change in populations: a case study of Lyme disease in Québec, Canada.}, journal = {BMC medical research methodology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {78}, doi = {10.1186/s12874-020-00958-4}, pmid = {32272899}, issn = {1471-2288}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: To monitor the adoption of climate change adaptive behaviors in the population, public health authorities have to conduct national surveys, which can help them target vulnerable subpopulations. To ensure reliable estimates of the adoption of these preventive behaviors, many data collection methods are offered by polling firms. The aim of this study was to compare a telephone survey with a web survey on Lyme disease with regard to their representativeness.<br><br>METHODS: The data comes from a cross-sectional study conducted in the Province of Québec (Canada). In total, 1003 people completed the questionnaire by telephone and 956 filled in a web questionnaire. We compared the data obtained from both survey modes with the census data in regard to various demographic characteristics. We then compared the data from both samples in terms of self-reported Lyme disease preventive behaviors and other theoretically associated constructs. We also assessed the measurement invariance (equivalence) of the index of Lyme disease preventive behaviors across the telephone and web samples.<br><br>RESULTS: Findings showed that neither the telephone nor the web panel modes of data collection can be considered more representative of the target population. The results showed that the proportion of item non-responses was significantly higher with the web questionnaire (5.6%) than with the telephone survey (1.3%), and that the magnitude of the differences between the two survey modes was nil for 19 out of the 30 items related to Lyme disease, and small for 11 of them. Results from invariance analyses confirmed the measurement invariance of an index of adaptation to Lyme disease, as well as the mean invariance across both samples.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggested that both samples provided similar estimates of the level of adaptation to Lyme disease preventive behaviors. In sum, the results of our study showed that neither survey mode was superior to the other. Thus, in studies where adaptation to climate change is monitored over time, using a web survey instead of a telephone survey could be more cost-effective, and researchers should consider doing so in future surveys on adaptation to climate. However, we recommend conducting a pretest study before deciding whether to use both survey modes or only one of them.}, }
@article {pmid32272663, year = {2020}, author = {Anser, MK and Hina, T and Hameed, S and Nasir, MH and Ahmad, I and Naseer, MAUR}, title = {Modeling Adaptation Strategies against Climate Change Impacts in Integrated Rice-Wheat Agricultural Production System of Pakistan.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {7}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph17072522}, pmid = {32272663}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {There are numerous anticipated effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in the developing and the developed world. Pakistan is among the top ten most prone nations to CC in the world. The objective of this analysis was to quantify the economic impacts of CC on the agricultural production system and to quantify the impacts of suggested adaptation strategies at the farm level. The study was conducted in the Punjab province's rice-wheat cropping system. For this purpose, climate modeling was carried out by using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, and five global circulation models (GCMs). The crop modeling was carried out by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop simulation models (CSMs), which were tested on the cross-sectional data of 217 farm households collected from the seven strata in the study area. The socio-economic impacts were calculated using the Multidimensional Impact Assessment Tradeoff Analysis Model (TOA-MD). The results revealed that CC's net economic impact using both RCPs and CSMs was negative. In both CSMs, the poverty status was higher in RCP 8.5 than in RCP 4.5. The adaptation package showed positive results in poverty reduction and improvement in the livelihood conditions of the agricultural households. The adoption rate for DSSAT was about 78%, and for APSIM, it was about 68%. The adaptation benefits observed in DSSAT were higher than in APSIM. The results showed that the suggested adaptations could have a significant impact on the resilience of the atmospheric changes. Therefore, without these adaptation measures, i.e., increase in sowing density, improved cultivars, increase in nitrogen use, and fertigation, there would be negative impacts of CC that would capitalize on livelihood and food security in the study area.}, }
@article {pmid32269501, year = {2017}, author = {Lorenz, S and Dessai, S and Forster, PM and Paavola, J}, title = {Adaptation planning and the use of climate change projections in local government in England and Germany.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {425-435}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-016-1030-3}, pmid = {32269501}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {Planning for adaptation to climate change is often regarded to be a local imperative and considered to be more effective if grounded on a solid evidence base and recognisant of relevant climate projections. Research has already documented some of the challenges of making climate information usable in decision-making but has not yet sufficiently reflected on the role of the wider institutional and regulatory context. This article examines the impact of the external institutional context on the use and usability of climate projections in local government through an analysis of 44 planning and climate change (adaptation) documents and 54 semi-structured interviews with planners in England and Germany conducted between July 2013 and May 2014. We show that there is little demand for climate projections in local adaptation planning in either country due to existing policy, legal and regulatory frameworks. Local government in England has not only experienced a decline in use of climate projections, but also the waning of the climate change adaptation agenda more widely, amidst changes in the planning and regulatory framework and severe budget cuts. In Germany, spatial planning makes substantial use of past and present climate data, but the strictly regulated nature of planning prevents the use of climate projections, due to their inherent uncertainties. Findings from the two countries highlight that if we are to better understand the usability of climate projections, we need to be more aware of the institutional context within which planning decisions are made. Otherwise we run the risk of continuing to provide tools and information that are of limited use within their intended context.}, }
@article {pmid32270688, year = {2020}, author = {Agrimonti, C and Lauro, M and Visioli, G}, title = {Smart agriculture for food quality: facing climate change in the 21st century.}, journal = {Critical reviews in food science and nutrition}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1080/10408398.2020.1749555}, pmid = {32270688}, issn = {1549-7852}, abstract = {Climate change, with increasing temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, constitutes a severe threat to the environment and all living organisms. In particular, numerous studies suggest severe consequences for the health of crop plants, affecting both the productivity and quality of raw material destined to the food industry. Of particular concern is the reduction of proteins and essential micronutrients as iron and zinc in crops. Fighting this alarming trends is the challenge of Climate-Smart Agriculture with the double goal of reducing environmental impacts (use of pesticides, nitrogen and phosphorus leaching, soil erosion, water depletion and contamination) and improving raw material and consequently food quality. Organic farming, biofertilizers and to a lesser extent nano-carriers, improve the antioxidant properties of fruits, but the data about proteins and micronutrients are rather contradictory. On the other hand, advanced devices and Precision Agriculture allow the cultivations to be more profitable, efficient, contributing more and more to reduce pest diseases and to increase the quality of agricultural products and food safety. Thus, nowadays adoption of technologies applied to sustainable farming systems is a challenging and dynamic issue for facing negative trends due to environmental impacts and climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid32270268, year = {2020}, author = {Keret, NM and Mutanen, MJ and Orell, MI and Itämies, JH and Välimäki, PM}, title = {Climate change-driven elevational changes among boreal nocturnal moths.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-020-04632-w}, pmid = {32270268}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {258638//Academy of Finland/ ; 277984//Academy of Finland/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change has shifted geographical ranges of species northwards or to higher altitudes on elevational gradients. These changes have been associated with increases in ambient temperatures. For ectotherms in seasonal environments, however, life history theory relies largely on the length of summer, which varies somewhat independently of ambient temperature per se. Extension of summer reduces seasonal time constraints and enables species to establish in new areas as a result of over-wintering stage reaching in due time. The reduction of time constraints is also predicted to prolong organisms' breeding season when reproductive potential is under selection. We studied temporal change in the summer length and its effect on species' performance by combining long-term data on the occurrence and abundance of nocturnal moths with weather conditions in a boreal location at Värriötunturi fell in NE Finland. We found that summers have lengthened on average 5 days per decade from the late 1970s, profoundly due to increasing delays in the onset of winters. Moth abundance increased with increasing season length a year before. Most of the species occurrences expanded upwards in elevation. Moth communities in low elevation pine heath forest and middle elevation mountain birch forest have become inseparable. Yet, the flight periods have remained unchanged, probably due to unpredictable variation in proximate conditions (weather) that hinders life histories from selection. We conclude that climate change-driven changes in the season length have potential to affect species' ranges and affect the structure of insect assemblages, which may contribute to alteration of ecosystem-level processes.}, }
@article {pmid32270055, year = {2020}, author = {Kentros, PA}, title = {Climate change and health-Stopping the merchants of doubt.}, journal = {Health science reports}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {e150}, doi = {10.1002/hsr2.150}, pmid = {32270055}, issn = {2398-8835}, }
@article {pmid32269821, year = {2020}, author = {Crear, DP and Brill, RW and Averilla, LML and Meakem, SC and Weng, KC}, title = {In the face of climate change and exhaustive exercise: the physiological response of an important recreational fish species.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {200049}, doi = {10.1098/rsos.200049}, pmid = {32269821}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Cobia (Rachycentron canadum) support recreational fisheries along the US mid- and south-Atlantic states and have been recently subjected to increased fishing effort, primarily during their spawning season in coastal habitats where increasing temperatures and expanding hypoxic zones are occurring due to climate change. We therefore undertook a study to quantify the physiological abilities of cobia to withstand increases in temperature and hypoxia, including their ability to recover from exhaustive exercise. Respirometry was conducted on cobia from Chesapeake Bay to determine aerobic scope, critical oxygen saturation, ventilation volume and the time to recover from exhaustive exercise under temperature and oxygen conditions projected to be more common in inshore areas by the middle and end of this century. Cobia physiologically tolerated predicted mid- and end-of-century temperatures (28-32°C) and oxygen concentrations as low as 1.7-2.4 mg l-1. Our results indicated cobia can withstand environmental fluctuations that occur in coastal habitats and the broad environmental conditions their prey items can tolerate. However, at these high temperatures, some cobia did suffer post-exercise mortality. It appears cobia will be able to withstand near-future climate impacts in coastal habitats like Chesapeake Bay, but as conditions worsen, catch-and-release fishing may result in higher mortality than under present conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32269583, year = {2020}, author = {Muoki, CR and Maritim, TK and Oluoch, WA and Kamunya, SM and Bore, JK}, title = {Combating Climate Change in the Kenyan Tea Industry.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {339}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00339}, pmid = {32269583}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change triggered by global warming poses a major threat to agricultural systems globally. This phenomenon is characterized by emergence of pests and diseases, extreme weather events, such as prolonged drought, high intensity rains, hailstones and frosts, which are becoming more frequent ultimately impacting negatively to agricultural production including rain-fed tea cultivation. Kenya is predominantly an agricultural based economy, with the tea sector generating about 26% of the total export earnings and about 4% gross domestic product (GDP). In the recent years, however, the country has witnessed unstable trends in tea production associated with climate driven stresses. Toward mitigation and adaptation of climate change, multiple approaches for impact assessment, intensity prediction and adaptation have been advanced in the Kenyan tea sub-sector. Further, pressure on tea breeders to release improved climate-compatible cultivars for the rapidly deteriorating environment has resulted in the adoption of a multi-targeted approach seeking to understand the complex molecular regulatory networks associated with biotic and abiotic stresses adaptation and tolerance in tea. Genetic modeling, a powerful tool that assists in breeding process, has also been adopted for selection of tea cultivars for optimal performance under varying climatic conditions. A range of physiological and biochemical responses known to counteract the effects of environmental stresses in most plants that include lowering the rates of cellular growth and net photosynthesis, stomatal closure, and the accumulation of organic solutes such as sugar alcohols, or osmolytes have been used to support breeding programs through screening of new tea cultivars suitable for changing environment. This review describes simulation models combined with high resolution climate change scenarios required to quantify the relative importance of climate change on tea production. In addition, both biodiversity and ecosystem based approaches are described as a part of an overall adaptation strategy to mitigate adverse effects of climate change on tea in Kenya and gaps highlighted for urgent investigations.}, }
@article {pmid32269079, year = {2020}, author = {Rosenbloom, D and Markard, J and Geels, FW and Fuenfschilling, L}, title = {Opinion: Why carbon pricing is not sufficient to mitigate climate change-and how &quot;sustainability transition policy&quot; can help.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2004093117}, pmid = {32269079}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid32268283, year = {2020}, author = {Das, I and Lauria, V and Kay, S and Cazcarro, I and Arto, I and Fernandes, JA and Hazra, S}, title = {Effects of climate change and management policies on marine fisheries productivity in the north-east coast of India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {724}, number = {}, pages = {138082}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138082}, pmid = {32268283}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The study covers two important deltaic systems of the north-east coast of India, viz. the Bengal and Mahanadi delta that support about 1.25 million people. The changes in potential marine fish production and socio-economic conditions were modelled for these two deltas under long-term changes in environmental conditions (sea surface temperature and primary production) to the end of the 21st century. Our results show that an increased temperature (by 4 °C) has a negative impact on fisheries productivity, which was projected to decrease by 5%. At the species level, Bombay duck, Indian mackerel and threadfin bream showed an increasing trend in the biomass of potential catches under the sustainable fishing scenario. However, under the business as usual and overfishing scenarios, our results suggest reduced catch for both states. On the other hand, mackerel tuna, Indian oil sardine, and hilsa fisheries showed a projected reduction in potential catch also for the sustainable fishing scenario. The socio-economic models projected an increase of up to 0.67% (involving 0.8 billion USD) in consumption by 2050 even under the best management scenario. The GDP per capita was projected to face a loss of 1.7 billion USD by 2050. The loss of low-cost fisheries would negatively impact the poorer coastal population since they strongly depend upon these fisheries as a source of protein. Nevertheless, adaptation strategies tend to have a negative correlation with poverty and food insecurity which needs to be addressed separately to make the sector-specific efforts effective. This work can be considered as the baseline model for future researchers and the policymakers to explore potential sustainable management options for the studied regions.}, }
@article {pmid32266545, year = {2020}, author = {Ye, B and Zhang, X and Zhang, X and Zheng, C}, title = {Climate change, environmental impact, and human health.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10653-020-00554-x}, pmid = {32266545}, issn = {1573-2983}, }
@article {pmid32265296, year = {2020}, author = {Ragavan, MI and Marcil, LE and Garg, A}, title = {Climate Change as a Social Determinant of Health.}, journal = {Pediatrics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1542/peds.2019-3169}, pmid = {32265296}, issn = {1098-4275}, }
@article {pmid32260074, year = {2020}, author = {Šolić, M and Šantić, D and Šestanović, S and Bojanić, N and Jozić, S and Ordulj, M and Tomaš, AV and Kušpilić, G}, title = {Changes in the Trophic Pathways within the Microbial Food Web in the Global Warming Scenario: An Experimental Study in the Adriatic Sea.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/microorganisms8040510}, pmid = {32260074}, issn = {2076-2607}, abstract = {A recent analysis of the Mediterranean Sea surface temperature showed significant annual warming. Since small picoplankton microorganisms play an important role in all major biogeochemical cycles, fluxes and processes occurring in marine systems (the changes at the base of the food web) as a response to human-induced temperature increase, could be amplified through the trophic chains and could also significantly affect different aspects of the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In this study, manipulative laboratory growth/grazing experiments were performed under in situ simulated conditions to study the structural and functional changes within the microbial food web after a 3 °C increase in temperature. The results show that a rise in temperature affects the changes in: (1) the growth and grazing rates of picoplankton, (2) their growth efficiency, (3) carrying capacities, (4) sensitivity of their production and grazing mortality to temperature, (5) satisfying protistan grazer carbon demands, (6) their preference in the selection of prey, (7) predator niche breadth and their overlap, (8) apparent uptake rates of nutrients, and (9) carbon biomass flow through the microbial food web. Furthermore, temperature affects the autotrophic and heterotrophic components of picoplankton in different ways.}, }
@article {pmid32256532, year = {2015}, author = {Zhao, D and Feng, P}, title = {Temperature increase impacts personality traits in aquatic non-native species: Implications for biological invasion under climate change.}, journal = {Current zoology}, volume = {61}, number = {6}, pages = {966-971}, doi = {10.1093/czoolo/61.6.966}, pmid = {32256532}, issn = {1674-5507}, abstract = {Climate change, such as elevated temperatures, may facilitate biological invasion. Aquatic animal systems are more vulnerable to biological invasion when the temperature rises. Animal personality also plays an important role in the possibility of successful establishment of invasive species. However, it is still unclear how personality traits of invasive species will respond to global warming. This study focuses on juveniles of red swamp crawfish Procambarus clarkii, an invasive poikilothermic species with wide distribution throughout the world, and explores how slight temperature increases influence three personality traits (activity, boldness and aggressiveness) of P. clarkii. For each personality, individual variation is to be presented in condition of the same temperature. Individual personality values can significantly increase with the subtle rising of water temperature. Significant correlations among activity, boldness and aggressiveness are found at any temperature stage, and such relationships are maintained at a similar level in the face of different temperatures. It is most likely that significant expressions of personality traits may be an ecological compensation strategy to offset increased metabolic costs when faced with small temperature increases. Aggression syndromes are formed due to stable linkages between personality traits, in order to acquire allopatric resources efficiently and establish a new population in this species.}, }
@article {pmid32258277, year = {2020}, author = {Kreft, CS and Huber, R and Wüpper, DJ and Finger, R}, title = {Data on farmers' adoption of climate change mitigation measures, individual characteristics, risk attitudes and social influences in a region of Switzerland.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {30}, number = {}, pages = {105410}, doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2020.105410}, pmid = {32258277}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {We present survey data on the adoption of agricultural climate change mitigation measures collected among 105 farmers in a region in Switzerland in 2019. We surveyed measures farmers use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the farm level. The list comprised 13 measures related to energy production and use, herd and manure management as well as crop production. Additionally, data was collected with regard to farmers' individual concerns and perceptions of climate change, attitudes and goals, self-efficacy and locus of control, income satisfaction and social influences. Moreover, risk preferences as well as loss aversion and probability weighting were elicited using a multiple price list. The survey data was matched with cantonal farm census data, containing information on farm size, farm type and age of the farmers.}, }
@article {pmid32251486, year = {2020}, author = {Cong, M and Xu, Y and Tang, L and Yang, W and Jian, M}, title = {Predicting the dynamic distribution of Sphagnum bogs in China under climate change since the last interglacial period.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e0230969}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0230969}, pmid = {32251486}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Sphagnum bogs possess irreplaceable ecological and economic value, and they are scarce in China, with a fragmented distribution. Based on 19 high-resolution bioclimatic environmental datasets and 71 bog center point locations, we employed a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to reconstruct and predict the spatial-temporal geographical distribution patterns of Sphagnum bogs from the last interglacial (LIG) period to two typical CO2 representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) in the future. We further computed the migratory paths of the distribution center points. Finally, a jackknife test was used to uncover the crucial environmental factors restricting the geographical distribution of the bogs. Our data indicated that the MaxEnt niche model had a high simulation precision with an area under the ROC curve value of 0.957. Spatially, the suitable bog habitats are currently centralized in northeastern China, including the Greater Khingan Mountains, the Lesser Khingan Mountains, and the Changbai Mountains, as well as peripheral areas of the Sichuan Basin. Temporally, the contours of Sphagnum bogs were similar to the present and rendered from the last glacial maximum (LMG) period, and had much more total area than the current. The total area in LIG was nearly the same as the current because of the similar climate. It was worth noting that there would be a reduction of the total area in the future. Loss of area occurred at the edges of bogs, especially under RCP8.5. The distribution center of bogs will shift to the northwest in the immediate future. The precipitation of driest month, the mean temperature of warmest quarter and the precipitation of warmest quarter were identified as crucial climatic factors affecting the distribution of Sphagnum bogs. Overall, our research provides scientific evidence for the long-term protection and effective management of these rare, precious natural resources and suggestions for in situ conservation.}, }
@article {pmid32250812, year = {2020}, author = {Wei, D and Zhao, H and Zhang, J and Qi, Y and Wang, X}, title = {Human activities alter response of alpine grasslands on Tibetan Plateau to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {262}, number = {}, pages = {110335}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110335}, pmid = {32250812}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The world's largest alpine pastures are found on the Tibetan Plateau, where considerable climate changes and human impacts have been experienced. Identifying their contributions to terrestrial productivity is essential if we are to adapt to, or mitigate the effects of, climate change. In this work, we begin by showing how the current warming and wetting of the climate over the last three decades has favored plant growth, as consistently captured by satellite observations and 15 models. However, the interactions between climate factors explain less of the variation in greenness observed by satellites after the 2000s, implying non-climatic influences. Next, we show that there is a significant negative impact of livestock grazing on pasture greenness, especially in peak summer. Official statistics across 72 counties verify these negative impacts, especially in poorer pastures with a higher density of grazing livestock. The variation in grazing density has a stronger negative effect on vegetation growth during the early part of the growing season after the 2000s, as compared with that before the 2000s. We found a compensatory effect of grazing and climate on alpine grassland growth, and the grazing regulates the response of vegetation greenness to climate change by modulating the dependency of vegetation growth on temperature. Thus, we suggest there is a weakening influence of climate on the greenness of alpine pastures, largely due to a strengthening influence of management, which should be considered by both the scientific community and policymakers.}, }
@article {pmid32250804, year = {2020}, author = {Li, L and Zha, Y and Zhang, J and Li, Y and Lyu, H}, title = {Effect of terrestrial vegetation growth on climate change in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {262}, number = {}, pages = {110321}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110321}, pmid = {32250804}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Globally, some vegetation has grown significantly over the past decades, but the climate benefits remain unclear, especially in the temperate regions. Understanding the biophysical effects and identifying the potential of vegetation will help to mitigate climate change. Here, we propose a vegetation-adjusted temperature index to understand how terrestrial vegetation growth in China affects the air temperature for 2001-2013, based on satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index, near-surface air temperature (Ta) and the land surface temperature. Grassland growth and cropland growth are found to cool the Ta by -0.08 ± 0.32 °C (mean ± one standard deviation) and -0.06 ± 0.28 °C, respectively. Forest growth results in net climate warming by 0.05 ± 0.29 °C. Biophysical effects, elevation and background climate are used to explain the climate impacts of vegetation. Results show that the biophysical effects dominate the climate impact. More specifically, evapotranspiration (ET) controls the daytime climate impact, and at night, an indirect effect of albedo (the release of daytime heat storage) dominates it. Lower precipitation, temperature and elevation reinforce the warming potential. Moreover, the effects of albedo and ET on climate are nonlinear. During the day, although lower albedo absorbs more incoming radiation, it releases more extra heat per unit ET that can compensate for the increased incoming radiation. At night, the warming effect reflects the release of daytime heat storage. Overall, tropical vegetation growth (-0.04 ± 0.10 °C) and warm temperate vegetation growth (-0.08 ± 0.15 °C) achieve the climatic benefits. Overall, the method proposed contributes to quantitatively evaluate the role of afforestation plan on regional climate cooling, and provides some policy/practical implications for future afforestation projects. Future afforestation projects should carefully consider the biophysical process and background climate to mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32250799, year = {2020}, author = {Martín-Arias, J and Martínez-Santos, P and Andreo, B}, title = {Modelling the effects of climate change and population growth in four intensively exploited Mediterranean aquifers. The Mijas range, southern Spain.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {262}, number = {}, pages = {110316}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110316}, pmid = {32250799}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Groundwater is key to economic growth in the Mediterranean region. This is particularly true of areas such as southern Spain, where aquifers underpin social development by supplying water to a booming tourist industry. Intensive groundwater use raises sustainability concerns, as pumping often exceeds the long-term recharge rate. Climate change and population growth are likely to exacerbate the water supply challenge in the coming years, due to the expected decrease in rainfall and to increasing competition among users. This paper examines some of the main aquifers in the Costa del Sol region, one of Spain's leading tourist destinations, where intensive groundwater extraction has led to water table drawdowns and the desiccation of all major springs. A numerical model was developed and calibrated for the purpose of evaluating the likely evolution of the system in the future. Downscaled scenarios from global circulation models were coupled with population growth forecasts to establish a range of plausible water management scenarios. Given the relatively small size of the aquifers and the limited recharge rate, the current pumping patterns appear unsustainable. Results suggest that drawdowns in excess of 150 m could take place within the next decade, thus compromising domestic supplies.}, }
@article {pmid32247907, year = {2020}, author = {Dahal, P and Shrestha, ML and Panthi, J and Pradhananga, D}, title = {Modeling the future impacts of climate change on water availability in the Karnali River Basin of Nepal Himalaya.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {185}, number = {}, pages = {109430}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109430}, pmid = {32247907}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {It's unequivocal that the global climate is changing, including the rise in atmospheric temperature and variability in amount and pattern of precipitation, and the rate of temperature change in the Himalayan region is higher than the global average. Since precipitation and temperature are the major driving factors of water resources in the Himalayas both upstream and downstream regions, it is important to understand theimpacts of climate change in water resource availability in the future. In this study, we analyzed the historical hydro-climate data and developed a suitable ensemble of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) climate models for the Karnali River Basin (KRB) in western Nepal and assessed the future water availability in different climate scenarios using a semi-distributed catchment scale hydrological model the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The climate data analysis shows that the atmospheric temperature is rising throughout the basin but there is high spatial variability in precipitation trend. The historical river discharge data analysis do not show any significant trend, however, there is some inter-annual variability. Future projection shows that the annual precipitation amount will increase compared to the baseline so does the river discharge. However, this increase is not uniform for all seasons. The post-monsoon season having the lowest observed precipitation will get lesser amount of precipitation in the future and the river discharge also follows the same trend. These anomalies play a crucial role in determining the future water availability for agriculture, hydropower, ecosystem functioning and its services availability to the people living in the KRB as well as in the downstream region.}, }
@article {pmid32246848, year = {2020}, author = {Allan, RP and Barlow, M and Byrne, MP and Cherchi, A and Douville, H and Fowler, HJ and Gan, TY and Pendergrass, AG and Rosenfeld, D and Swann, ALS and Wilcox, LJ and Zolina, O}, title = {Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14337}, pmid = {32246848}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {NE/N006054/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; WM140025//Royal Society/ ; 1947282//National Center for Atmospheric Research/ ; }, abstract = {Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2-3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.}, }
@article {pmid32241685, year = {2020}, author = {Schwartz, SA}, title = {Climate Change, Covid-19, Preparedness, and Consciousness.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2020.02.022}, pmid = {32241685}, issn = {1878-7541}, }
@article {pmid32240359, year = {2020}, author = {Chitu, E and Paltineanu, C}, title = {Timing of phenological stages for apple and pear trees under climate change in a temperate-continental climate.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01903-2}, pmid = {32240359}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {Project PN-III-P1-1.2-PCCDI-2017-0721 - INTER-ASPA//Romanian Ministry of Research and Innovation/ ; }, abstract = {The study examines the consequences of climate change in Malus (apple) and Pyrus (pear) on four phenological stages: bud swelling (code 51 BBCH Monograph), budburst (code 53), beginning of flowering (code 61), and end of flowering (code 69) in the temperate-continental climate of southern Romania. The hypothesis tested is how much the onset dates (TOD) of phenology stages moved earlier due to climate change. Weather and phenological data were collected from 1969 to 2018 and were statistically processed. There was an increase in air temperature (T) during the first 5 months in the year, with a significant rise in March and April; significant linear relationships show an advance in TOD with the years elapsed. Inverse linear relationships were found between TOD, maximum (Tmax), mean (Tmean), minimum (Tmin) temperature, and sunshine hours (Sh). The relationships between TOD and Tmax were the strongest. The early stages of flowering phenology are advancing more strongly than later flowering stages. For apple, in the last 50 years, there was an advance of 13.8 days for stage 51, 14.8 days for stage 53, 10.7 days for stage 61, and only 7.3 days for stage 69; for pear trees, the advance was lower: 10 days for stage 51, 9 days for stage 53, 6.7 days for stage 61, and only 2.1 days for stage 69. These findings, which might be extrapolated to similar environments, have important consequences in fruit growing, like the occurrence of climate accidents due to late frost, insect pollination, and application of pesticides and irrigation water.}, }
@article {pmid32240191, year = {2020}, author = {Hashida, Y and Withey, J and Lewis, DJ and Newman, T and Kline, JD}, title = {Anticipating changes in wildlife habitat induced by private forest owners' adaptation to climate change and carbon policy.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e0230525}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0230525}, pmid = {32240191}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Conserving forests to provide ecosystem services and biodiversity will be a key environmental challenge as society strives to adapt to climate change. The ecosystem services and biodiversity that forests provide will be influenced by the behaviors of numerous individual private landowners as they alter their use of forests in response to climate change and any future carbon pricing policies that emerge. We evaluated the impact of forest landowners' likely adaptation behaviors on potential habitat for 35 terrestrial, forest-dependent vertebrates across three U.S. Pacific states. In particular, we couple a previously estimated empirical-economic model of forest management with spatially explicit species' range and habitat associations to quantify the effects of adaptation to climate change and carbon pricing on potential habitat for our focal species (amphibians, birds and mammals) drawn from state agency lists of species of conservation concern. We show that both climate change and carbon pricing policies would likely encourage adaptation away from currently prevalent coniferous forest types, such as Douglas-fir, largely through harvest and planting decisions. This would reduce potential habitat for a majority of the focal species we studied across all three vertebrate taxa. The total anticipated habitat loss for amphibians, birds and mammals considered species of state concern would exceed total habitat gained, and the net loss in habitat per decade would accelerate over time. Carbon payments to forest landowners likely would lead to unintended localized habitat losses especially in Douglas-fir dominant forest types, and encourage more hardwoods on private forest lands. Our study highlights potential tradeoffs that could arise from pricing one ecosystem service (e.g., carbon) while leaving others (e.g., wildlife habitat) unpriced. Our study demonstrates the importance of anticipating potential changes in ecosystem services and biodiversity resulting from forest landowners' climate adaptation behavior and accounting for a broader set of environmental benefits and costs when designing policies to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32237788, year = {2020}, author = {Ozarslan, R and Sekerci, Y}, title = {Fractional order oxygen-plankton system under climate change.}, journal = {Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {033131}, doi = {10.1063/1.5129766}, pmid = {32237788}, issn = {1089-7682}, abstract = {Global climate change affects marine species including phytoplankton, which constitute the base of the marine food web, by changing the primary productivity. Global warming affects the ocean surface temperature, in turn leading to a change in the oxygen production of phytoplankton. In this work, the fractional oxygen-phytoplankton-zooplankton mathematical model is considered by the Caputo fractional operator. The production rate of photosynthesis is determined by a temperature function. The model is, therefore, based on the idea that the rate of photosynthesis changes due to the impact of global warming, while phytoplankton oxygen production increases and decreases. We analyze the model with the Caputo fractional derivative differently from the classical case of the model and we compare the results with the integer order derivative when α tends to 1. Existence and uniqueness properties of the oxygen-plankton model have been proved by means of a local Lipschitz condition. It was shown that the species are more sustainable than its corresponding classical case in the Caputo model. Our results show that the effect of global warming on the oxygen production rate has been observed to be quite severe, resulting in oxygen depletion and plankton extinction.}, }
@article {pmid32235149, year = {2020}, author = {Leddin, D and Macrae, F}, title = {Climate Change: Implications for Gastrointestinal Health and Disease.}, journal = {Journal of clinical gastroenterology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/MCG.0000000000001336}, pmid = {32235149}, issn = {1539-2031}, abstract = {The earth's atmosphere has warmed by about 1°C compared with preindustrial temperature. This is producing changes in the earth's climate and weather which have implications for gastrointestinal health and disease. Climate change will exacerbate current challenges with regard to provision of adequate nutrition and access to clean water. An increase in high rainfall events, flooding and droughts will be associated with an increase in enteric infections and hepatitis. Changes in habitat may result in altered distribution of gastrointestinal illness such as Vibrio cholera. Climate change will force migration between countries, and within countries, and will drive relocation from rural to urban areas, further straining sanitation and clean water provision. The infrastructure required to the delivery of gastrointestinal care is vulnerable to extreme weather events which will become more frequent. The Gastroenterology community needs to join the debate on climate change by organizing, educating, advocating, and supporting our political leaders as they face the enormous challenges posed by global warming.}, }
@article {pmid32229547, year = {2020}, author = {Haines, A and Scheelbeek, P}, title = {The health case for urgent action on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {368}, number = {}, pages = {m1103}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.m1103}, pmid = {32229547}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid32229481, year = {2020}, author = {Harmer, A and Eder, B and Gepp, S and Leetz, A and van de Pas, R}, title = {WHO should declare climate change a public health emergency.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {368}, number = {}, pages = {m797}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.m797}, pmid = {32229481}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid32228798, year = {2020}, author = {Bryson, JM and Bishop-Williams, KE and Berrang-Ford, L and Nunez, EC and Lwasa, S and Namanya, DB and Harper, SL and Indigenous Health Adaptation To Climate Change Research Team, }, title = {Neglected Tropical Diseases in the Context of Climate Change in East Africa: A Systematic Scoping Review.}, journal = {The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.4269/ajtmh.19-0380}, pmid = {32228798}, issn = {1476-1645}, abstract = {East Africa is highly affected by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), which are projected to be exacerbated by climate change. Consequently, understanding what research has been conducted and what knowledge gaps remain regarding NTDs and climate change is crucial to informing public health interventions and climate change adaptation. We conducted a systematic scoping review to describe the extent, range, and nature of publications examining relationships between NTDs and climatic factors in East Africa. We collated all relevant English and French publications indexed in PubMed®, Web of Science™ Core Collection, and CAB Direct© databases published before 2019. Ninety-six publications were included for review. Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia had high rates of publication, whereas countries in the Western Indian Ocean region were underrepresented. Most publications focused on schistosomiasis (n = 28, 29.2%), soil-transmitted helminthiases (n = 16, 16.7%), or human African trypanosomiasis (n = 14, 14.6%). Precipitation (n = 91, 94.8%) and temperature (n = 54, 56.3%) were frequently investigated climatic factors, whereas consideration of droughts (n = 10, 10.4%) and floods (n = 4, 4.2%) was not prominent. Publications reporting on associations between NTDs and changing climate were increasing over time. There was a decrease in the reporting of indigeneity and age factors over time. Overall, there were substantial knowledge gaps for several countries and for many NTDs. To better understand NTDs in the context of a changing climate, it would be helpful to increase research on underrepresented diseases and regions, consider demographic and social factors in research, and characterize how these factors modify the effects of climatic variables on NTDs in East Africa.}, }
@article {pmid32223316, year = {2020}, author = {Alahmad, B and Khraishah, H and Shakarchi, AF and Albaghdadi, M and Rajagopalan, S and Koutrakis, P and Jaffer, F}, title = {Cardiovascular Mortality and Exposure to Heat in an Inherently Hot Region: Implications for Climate Change.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.119.044860}, pmid = {32223316}, issn = {1524-4539}, }
@article {pmid32223020, year = {2020}, author = {Ma, J and Zhou, L and Foltz, GR and Qu, X and Ying, J and Tokinaga, H and Mechoso, CR and Li, J and Gu, X}, title = {Hydrological cycle changes under global warming and their effects on multiscale climate variability.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14335}, pmid = {32223020}, issn = {1749-6632}, abstract = {Despite a globally uniform increase in the concentrations of emitted greenhouse gases, radiatively forced surface warming can have significant spatial variations. These define warming patterns that depend on preexisting climate states and through atmospheric and oceanic dynamics can drive changes of the hydrological cycle with global-scale feedbacks. Our study reviews research progress on the hydrological cycle changes and their effects on multiscale climate variability. Overall, interannual variability is expected to become stronger in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and weaker in the Atlantic. Global monsoon rainfall is projected to increase and the wet season to lengthen despite a slowdown of atmospheric circulation. Strong variations among monsoon regions are likely to emerge, depending on surface conditions such as orography and land-sea contrast. Interdecadal climate variability is expected to modulate the globally averaged surface temperature change with pronounced anomalies in the polar and equatorial regions, leading to prolonged periods of enhanced or reduced warming. It is emphasized that advanced global observations, regional simulations, and process-level investigations are essential for improvements in understanding, predicting, and projecting the modes of climate variability, monsoon sensitivity, and energetic fluctuations in a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid32222925, year = {2020}, author = {Li, Y and Li, F and Yang, F and Xie, X and Yin, L}, title = {Spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on food production: case study of Shaanxi Province, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08447-3}, pmid = {32222925}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {41701094//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2018JQ4024//Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China/ ; }, abstract = {The climate change on the impact of grain production potential has significant regional differences. Researchers have studied the grain production potential of various crop combinations or focused on single crop types in a typical area; however, the regional differences of the climate change on the impact of grain production potential were neglected. This paper used the Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ 3.0) model to focus on the analysis what is the climate change on the impact of grain production potential in different geographic units (Northern Shaanxi Plateau, Guanzhong Basin, Qinba Mountain) in Shaanxi Province of China. The case showed that the precipitation (Pre) what made changes of grain production potential was the most important factor in different geographic units. The increase of Pre had a positive impact on the grain production potential in Northern Shaanxi Plateau and Guanzhong Basin. However, in Qinba Mountain, due to excessive Pre in the Qinba Mountains, the decrease of Pre had a certain positive impact on the grain production potential. The precipitation was less in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau; therefore, its major factors leading to changes of crop production were precipitation and rainfall days. The increase of the mean maximum temperature (Tmx) and the mean minimum temperature (Tmn) had a positive impact of the grain production potential in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau and Guanzhong Basin. The higher temperature had a negative impact on the grain production potential. In Qinba Mountain, the increase of the temperature has a certain negative impact on the grain production potential. It has more influence of Tmx in the Guanzhong Basin and Qinba Mountain rather than that in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau. Generally speaking, the major climatic factors leading grain production potential were Pre and Tmx in Guanzhong Basin and Qinba Mountain.}, }
@article {pmid32222634, year = {2020}, author = {Babel, MS and Shinde, VR and Sharma, D and Dang, NM}, title = {Measuring water security: A vital step for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {185}, number = {}, pages = {109400}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109400}, pmid = {32222634}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Climate change and water are intricately linked. Water is the primary medium through which the impacts of climate change will be felt. Securing the water sector and enhancing water security is, therefore, imperative for any adaptive response to climate change. A precursor in improving water security is to first establish a mechanism to measure it. Only then can incremental and progressive actions be evaluated. This study has developed such a mechanism in the form of a water security assessment framework using an indictor-based methodology. The framework is developed for city-scale analysis because analyses at this scale is more useful in operationalizing water security enhancement. The framework has a three-layered structure comprising five dimensions (broad elements of water security), twelve indicators (areas of interest within the dimensions), and a set of potential variables that can be used to quantify the indicators. The framework has been developed to foster practical interventions for water security enhancement and not as a comparative tool for benchmarking. Hence, while the dimensions and indicators of the framework are fixed, the choice of variables is up to the city depending upon its context. This aspect of the framework, therefore, is meant to help cities introspect internally and move up the water security ladder. The framework culminates into a Water Security Index (WSI), measured on a scale from one to five. The scale is linear and hierarchical in its grade value. The framework was successfully used to assess the water security situation of Bangkok. The study also makes a case for scaling up this intervention for other major cities in Thailand, which can then help implement some of Thailand's key climate change adaptation initiatives such as the Nationally Determined Contributions and the National Climate Change Master Plan.}, }
@article {pmid32222510, year = {2020}, author = {Valdes-Abellan, J and Pardo, MA and Jodar-Abellan, A and Pla, C and Fernandez-Mejuto, M}, title = {Climate change impact on karstic aquifer hydrodynamics in southern Europe semi-arid region using the KAGIS model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {723}, number = {}, pages = {138110}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138110}, pmid = {32222510}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Nowadays, there are many urban settlements in arid and semiarid areas supplied by groundwater from adjacent small aquifers. Climate projections with expected decreases in averages precipitation values jointly with increases in the frequency of heavy rainfall events does not show a clear pattern to how water resources in karstic aquifers are going to evolve. This paper, focused in the province of Alicante (Southeast of Spain), assesses the behaviour of a small karstic aquifer, the Mela aquifer, whose resources supply urban water consumption for close municipalities. We assess the hydrogeological response of the aquifer, through the KAGIS black-box GIS-based model, for the present climate conditions and for the long period analysing the four scenarios provided by the International Panel of Climate Change. Main results prove that, if we do not diminish the greenhouse gas emissions, the climate change impact on the hydrological response of the study aquifer shows a decrease in the flow rate from its unique spring and will be non-existent during the summer months. So, it will be necessary to design supply strategies for these municipalities and to carry out them, meeting budget restrictions and avoiding potential water shortages.}, }
@article {pmid32222010, year = {2020}, author = {Wilson, KL and Tittensor, DP and Worm, B and Lotze, HK}, title = {Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15094}, pmid = {32222010}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here, we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed, and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32221971, year = {2020}, author = {Enriquez-Urzelai, U and Tingley, R and Kearney, MR and Sacco, M and Palacio, AS and Tejedo, M and Nicieza, AG}, title = {The roles of acclimation and behavior in buffering climate change impacts along elevational gradients.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13222}, pmid = {32221971}, issn = {1365-2656}, abstract = {1. The vulnerability of species to climate change is jointly influenced by geographic phenotypic variation, acclimation, and behavioral thermoregulation. The importance of interactions between these factors, however, remains poorly understood. 2. We demonstrate how advances in mechanistic niche modelling can be used to integrate and assess the influence of these sources of uncertainty in forecasts of climate change impacts. 3. We explored geographic variation in thermal tolerance (i.e. maximum and minimum thermal limits) and its potential for acclimation in juvenile European common frogs (Rana temporaria) along elevational gradients. Further, we employed a mechanistic niche model (NicheMapR) to assess the relative contributions of phenotypic variation, acclimation and thermoregulation in determining the impacts of climate change on thermal safety margins and activity windows. 4. Our analyses revealed that high elevation populations had slightly wider tolerance ranges driven by increases in heat tolerance but lower potential for acclimation. Plausibly, wider thermal fluctuations at high elevations favor more tolerant but less plastic phenotypes, thus reducing the risk of encountering stressful temperatures during unpredictable extreme events. Biophysical models of thermal exposure indicated that observed phenotypic and plastic differences provide limited protection from changing climates. Indeed, the risk of reaching body temperatures beyond the species' thermal tolerance range was similar across elevations. In contrast, the ability to seek cooler retreat sites through behavioral adjustments played an essential role in buffering populations from thermal extremes predicted under climate change. Predicted climate change also altered current activity windows, but high-elevation populations were predicted to remain more temporally constrained than lowland populations. 5. Our results demonstrate that elevational variation in thermal tolerances and acclimation capacity might be insufficient to buffer temperate amphibians from predicted climate change; instead, behavioral thermoregulation may be the only effective mechanism to avoid thermal stress under future climates.}, }
@article {pmid32220418, year = {2020}, author = {López, MS and Santi, MF and Müller, GV and Gómez, AA and Staffolani, C and Pomares, LA}, title = {Corrigendum to &quot;Climate change communication by the local digital press in northeastern Argentina: An ethical analysis&quot; [Sci. Total Environ. 707 (2020), 1-7/135737].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {137855}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137855}, pmid = {32220418}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid32220327, year = {2020}, author = {Hastings, RA and Rutterford, LA and Freer, JJ and Collins, RA and Simpson, SD and Genner, MJ}, title = {Climate Change Drives Poleward Increases and Equatorward Declines in Marine Species.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2020.02.043}, pmid = {32220327}, issn = {1879-0445}, abstract = {Marine environments have increased in temperature by an average of 1°C since pre-industrial (1850) times [1]. Given that species ranges are closely allied to physiological thermal tolerances in marine organisms [2], it may therefore be expected that ocean warming would lead to abundance increases at poleward side of ranges and abundance declines toward the equator [3]. Here, we report a global analysis of abundance trends of 304 widely distributed marine species over the last century, across a range of taxonomic groups from phytoplankton to fish and marine mammals. Specifically, using a literature database, we investigate the extent that the direction and strength of long-term species abundance changes depend on the sampled location within the latitudinal range of species. Our results show that abundance increases have been most prominent where sampling has taken place at the poleward side of species ranges, and abundance declines have been most prominent where sampling has taken place at the equatorward side of species ranges. These data provide evidence of omnipresent large-scale changes in abundance of marine species consistent with warming over the last century and suggest that adaptation has not provided a buffer against the negative effects of warmer conditions at the equatorward extent of species ranges. On the basis of these results, we suggest that projected sea temperature increases of up to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels by 2050 [4] will continue to drive latitudinal abundance shifts in marine species, including those of importance for coastal livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid32218562, year = {2020}, author = {Jahanzad, E and Holtz, BA and Zuber, CA and Doll, D and Brewer, KM and Hogan, S and Gaudin, ACM}, title = {Orchard recycling improves climate change adaptation and mitigation potential of almond production systems.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {e0229588}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0229588}, pmid = {32218562}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {There is an urgent need to develop climate smart agroecosystems capable of mitigating climate change and adapting to its effects. In California, high commodity prices and increased frequency of drought have encouraged orchard turnover, providing an opportunity to recycle tree biomass in situ prior to replanting an orchard. Whole orchard recycling (WOR) has potential as a carbon (C) negative cultural practice to build soil C storage, soil health, and orchard productivity. We tested the potential of this practice for long term C sequestration and hypothesized that associated co-benefits to soil health will enhance sustainability and resiliency of almond orchards to water-deficit conditions. We measured soil health metrics and productivity of an almond orchard following grinding and incorporation of woody biomass vs. burning of old orchard biomass 9 years after implementation. We also conducted a deficit irrigation trial with control and deficit irrigation (-20%) treatments to quantify shifts in tree water status and resilience. Biomass recycling led to higher yields and substantial improvement in soil functioning, including nutrient content, aggregation, porosity, and water retention. This practice also sequestered significantly higher levels of C in the topsoil (+5 t ha-1) compared to burning. We measured a 20% increase in irrigation water use efficiency and improved soil and tree water status under stress, suggesting that in situ biomass recycling can be considered as a climate smart practice in California irrigated almond systems.}, }
@article {pmid32218517, year = {2020}, author = {Pham-Duc, B and Sylvestre, F and Papa, F and Frappart, F and Bouchez, C and Crétaux, JF}, title = {The Lake Chad hydrology under current climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {5498}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-62417-w}, pmid = {32218517}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Lake Chad, in the Sahelian zone of west-central Africa, provides food and water to ~50 million people and supports unique ecosystems and biodiversity. In the past decades, it became a symbol of current climate change, held up by its dramatic shrinkage in the 1980s. Despites a partial recovery in response to increased Sahelian precipitation in the 1990s, Lake Chad is still facing major threats and its contemporary variability under climate change remains highly uncertain. Here, using a new multi-satellite approach, we show that Lake Chad extent has remained stable during the last two decades, despite a slight decrease of its northern pool. Moreover, since the 2000s, groundwater, which contributes to ~70% of Lake Chad's annual water storage change, is increasing due to water supply provided by its two main tributaries. Our results indicate that in tandem with groundwater and tropical origin of water supply, over the last two decades, Lake Chad is not shrinking and recovers seasonally its surface water extent and volume. This study provides a robust regional understanding of current hydrology and changes in the Lake Chad region, giving a basis for developing future climate adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32217580, year = {2020}, author = {Macdonald, G}, title = {Our prescription for climate change: reduce and recycle inhalers!.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {70}, number = {693}, pages = {168}, doi = {10.3399/bjgp20X709037}, pmid = {32217580}, issn = {1478-5242}, }
@article {pmid32214561, year = {2008}, author = {Ebi, KL}, title = {Healthy people 2100: modeling population health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {88}, number = {1}, pages = {5-19}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9233-0}, pmid = {32214561}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Quantitatively estimating the potential health impacts of climate change is facilitated by multi-determinant models that integrate micro- to macro-level exposures and processes that influence disease occurrence, including the public health responses, in order to identify regions and population groups that may be more vulnerable. Although progress has been made in constructing systems-based models, considerable work is required to address key issues of quantification of the climate-health associations and the factors that affect those associations; specification of model(s) appropriate to incorporate climate change, adaptation, and mitigation policies; incorporation of thresholds; incorporation of pathways of public health development; and quantification of uncertainties.}, }
@article {pmid32214560, year = {2015}, author = {Moser, SC and Hart, JAF}, title = {The long arm of climate change: societal teleconnections and the future of climate change impacts studies.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {129}, number = {1}, pages = {13-26}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1328-z}, pmid = {32214560}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {&quot;Societal teleconnections&quot; - analogous to physical teleconnections such as El Niño - are human-created linkages that link activities, trends, and disruptions across large distances, such that locations spatially separated from the locus of an event can experience a variety of impacts from it nevertheless. In the climate change context, such societal teleconnections add a layer of risk that is currently neither fully appreciated in most impacts or vulnerability assessments nor in on-the-ground adaptation planning. Conceptually, societal teleconnections arise from the interactions among actors, and the institutions that guide their actions, affecting the movement of various substances through different structures and processes. Empirically, they arise out of societal interactions, including globalization, to create, amplify, and sometimes attenuate climate change vulnerabilities and impacts in regions far from those where a climatic extreme or change occurs. This paper introduces a simple but systematic way to conceptualize societal teleconnections and then highlights and explores eight unique but interrelated types of societal teleconnections with selected examples: (1) trade and economic exchange, (2) insurance and reinsurance, (3) energy systems, (4) food systems; (5) human health, (6) population migration, (7) communication, and (8) strategic alliances and military interactions. The paper encourages further research to better understand the causal chains behind socially teleconnected impacts, and to identify ways to routinely integrate their consideration in impacts/vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning to limit the risk of costly impacts.}, }
@article {pmid32215943, year = {2020}, author = {Nikendei, C and Cranz, A and Bugaj, TJ}, title = {Two slides to make you think: 2slides4future, an initiative for teachers and lecturers advocating climate change education and teacher-learner dialogue.}, journal = {Medical education}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/medu.14081}, pmid = {32215943}, issn = {1365-2923}, }
@article {pmid32215695, year = {2020}, author = {Feist, A and Plummer, R and Baird, J and Mitchell, SJ}, title = {Examining Collaborative Processes for Climate Change Adaptation in New Brunswick, Canada.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01284-7}, pmid = {32215695}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {not available//SSHRC/ ; not available//SSHRC/ ; }, abstract = {Collaboration is a proposed strategy to address super wicked environmental problems, such as climate change. Yet, understanding how it works for climate change adaptation is nascent. This research aims to advance the understanding of this by a cross-case analysis of three cases in New Brunswick, Canada. We sought to illuminate the inner workings of multiparty collaboration in the context of community climate change adaptation; identify important qualities of the process and outcomes from it, and probe their relationships; and, explore how they come about in practice. A questionnaire was sent to individuals involved in cases and key informant interviews were conducted. Results reveal case-specific variations, but more importantly, common qualities and outcomes across the cases. They offer key insight into elements which may be important in collaborative settings. These are informative for influencing the uptake of collaborative strategies in climate change adaptation and offer the opportunity to better understand their functional effectiveness.}, }
@article {pmid32214252, year = {2020}, author = {Robinson, A}, title = {A lively history of smell, practical solutions for climate change, and big cats on the prowl: Books in brief.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {579}, number = {7800}, pages = {491}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00835-6}, pmid = {32214252}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32213418, year = {2020}, author = {Chen, B and Yu, K and Qin, Z and Liang, J and Wang, G and Huang, X and Wu, Q and Jiang, L}, title = {Dispersal, genetic variation, and symbiont interaction network of heat-tolerant endosymbiont Durusdinium trenchii: Insights into the adaptive potential of coral to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {723}, number = {}, pages = {138026}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138026}, pmid = {32213418}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global warming has degraded coral reef ecosystems worldwide. Some corals develop thermal tolerance by associating with heat-tolerant Symbiodiniaceae. Here, we studied the mechanisms surrounding the dispersal, genetic variation and symbionts interaction of heat-tolerant Durusdinium trenchii across 13° latitudes in the South China Sea (SCS), to explore the possible mechanisms underlying these changes. Our results showed that Durusdinium trenchii are widely distributed in the seawater from the SCS. Our analyses of microsatellite loci revealed that D. trenchii has a high genetic diversity in the SCS; STRUCTURE analysis indicated that D. trenchii can be divided into four populations within the SCS; There exist positive correlations between genetic variation and geographic isolation, average sea surface temperature (SST) and variations in SST. Network modelling inferences showed that D. trenchii is a key species in the Symbiodiniaceae communities in the tropical SCS and contributes the greatest number of co-exclusion relationships. These results indicated that D. trenchii can affect the rare Symbiodiniaceae community. The long lifespan and the monsoon-driven ocean currents have shaped the wide distribution of D. trenchii. But low SST limits the ability of D. trenchii to establish stable symbioses with coral in the subtropical habitats. Geographical isolation and SST have shaped significant genetic variation of D.trenchii around the SCS. Our data reveals the biogeography and genetic population characteristics of D. trenchii in the Indo-Pacific region, and suggests that heat-tolerance and high genetic diversity of D. trenchii aid the corals with their adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32212601, year = {2019}, author = {Doyle, P and Kelly, I and O’Neill, D}, title = {Older People: Canaries in the Coal-Mine for Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {Irish medical journal}, volume = {}, number = {10}, pages = {1015}, pmid = {32212601}, issn = {0332-3102}, }
@article {pmid32211172, year = {2020}, author = {Zhao, Z and Guo, Y and Wei, H and Ran, Q and Liu, J and Zhang, Q and Gu, W}, title = {Potential distribution of Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang and its predicted responses to climate change based on a comprehensive habitat suitability model.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {3004-3016}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.6117}, pmid = {32211172}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang is a rare and endangered traditional Chinese medicinal plant. In this research, we built a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model to analyze the potential suitable habitat distribution of this species in the present and future in China. First, using nine different algorithms, we built an ensemble model to explore the possible impacts of climate change on the habitat distribution of this species. Then, based on this model, we built a CHS model to further identify the distribution characteristics of N. incisum-suitable habitats in three time periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s) while considering the effects of soil and vegetation conditions. The results indicated that the current suitable habitat for N. incisum covers approximately 83.76 × 103 km2, and these locations were concentrated in the Tibet Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, and Sichuan Province. In the future, the areas of suitable habitat for N. incisum would significantly decrease and would be 69.53 × 103 km2 and 60.21 × 103 km2 in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. However, the area of marginally suitable habitat would remain relatively stable. This study provides a more reliable and comprehensive method for modelling the current and future distributions of N. incisum, and it provides valuable insights for highlighting priority areas for medicinal plant conservation and resource utilization.}, }
@article {pmid32211145, year = {2020}, author = {Denney, DA and Jameel, MI and Bemmels, JB and Rochford, ME and Anderson, JT}, title = {Small spaces, big impacts: contributions of micro-environmental variation to population persistence under climate change.}, journal = {AoB PLANTS}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {plaa005}, doi = {10.1093/aobpla/plaa005}, pmid = {32211145}, issn = {2041-2851}, abstract = {Individuals within natural populations can experience very different abiotic and biotic conditions across small spatial scales owing to microtopography and other micro-environmental gradients. Ecological and evolutionary studies often ignore the effects of micro-environment on plant population and community dynamics. Here, we explore the extent to which fine-grained variation in abiotic and biotic conditions contributes to within-population variation in trait expression and genetic diversity in natural plant populations. Furthermore, we consider whether benign microhabitats could buffer local populations of some plant species from abiotic stresses imposed by rapid anthropogenic climate change. If microrefugia sustain local populations and communities in the short term, other eco-evolutionary processes, such as gene flow and adaptation, could enhance population stability in the longer term. We caution, however, that local populations may still decline in size as they contract into rare microhabitats and microrefugia. We encourage future research that explicitly examines the role of the micro-environment in maintaining genetic variation within local populations, favouring the evolution of phenotypic plasticity at local scales and enhancing population persistence under global change.}, }
@article {pmid32211059, year = {2020}, author = {Jia, KH and Zhao, W and Maier, PA and Hu, XG and Jin, Y and Zhou, SS and Jiao, SQ and El-Kassaby, YA and Wang, T and Wang, XR and Mao, JF}, title = {Landscape genomics predicts climate change-related genetic offset for the widespread Platycladus orientalis (Cupressaceae).}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {665-676}, doi = {10.1111/eva.12891}, pmid = {32211059}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Understanding and quantifying populations' adaptive genetic variation and their response to climate change are critical to reforestation's seed source selection, forest management decisions, and gene conservation. Landscape genomics combined with geographic and environmental information provide an opportunity to interrogate forest populations' genome-wide variation for understanding the extent to which evolutionary forces shape past and contemporary populations' genetic structure, and identify those populations that may be most at risk under future climate change. Here, we used genotyping by sequencing to generate over 11,000 high-quality variants from Platycladus orientalis range-wide collection to evaluate its diversity and to predict genetic offset under future climate scenarios. Platycladus orientalis is a widespread conifer in China with significant ecological, timber, and medicinal values. We found population structure and evidences of isolation by environment, indicative of adaptation to local conditions. Gradient forest modeling identified temperature-related variables as the most important environmental factors influencing genetic variation and predicted areas with higher risk under future climate change. This study provides an important reference for forest resource management and conservation for P. orientalis.}, }
@article {pmid32210846, year = {2020}, author = {Cianconi, P and Betrò, S and Janiri, L}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health: A Systematic Descriptive Review.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychiatry}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {74}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00074}, pmid = {32210846}, issn = {1664-0640}, abstract = {Background: Climate change is one of the great challenges of our time. The consequences of climate change on exposed biological subjects, as well as on vulnerable societies, are a concern for the entire scientific community. Rising temperatures, heat waves, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts, fires, loss of forest, and glaciers, along with disappearance of rivers and desertification, can directly and indirectly cause human pathologies that are physical and mental. However, there is a clear lack in psychiatric studies on mental disorders linked to climate change.<br><br>Methods: Literature available on PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library until end of June 2019 were reviewed. The total number of articles and association reports was 445. From these, 163 were selected. We looked for the association between classical psychiatric disorders such as anxiety schizophrenia, mood disorder and depression, suicide, aggressive behaviors, despair for the loss of usual landscape, and phenomena related to climate change and extreme weather. Review of literature was then divided into specific areas: the course of change in mental health, temperature, water, air pollution, drought, as well as the exposure of certain groups and critical psychological adaptations.<br><br>Results: Climate change has an impact on a large part of the population, in different geographical areas and with different types of threats to public health. However, the delay in studies on climate change and mental health consequences is an important aspect. Lack of literature is perhaps due to the complexity and novelty of this issue. It has been shown that climate change acts on mental health with different timing. The phenomenology of the effects of climate change differs greatly-some mental disorders are common and others more specific in relation to atypical climatic conditions. Moreover, climate change also affects different population groups who are directly exposed and more vulnerable in their geographical conditions, as well as a lack of access to resources, information, and protection. Perhaps it is also worth underlining that in some papers the connection between climatic events and mental disorders was described through the introduction of new terms, coined only recently: ecoanxiety, ecoguilt, ecopsychology, ecological grief, solastalgia, biospheric concern, etc.<br><br>Conclusions: The effects of climate change can be direct or indirect, short-term or long-term. Acute events can act through mechanisms similar to that of traumatic stress, leading to well-understood psychopathological patterns. In addition, the consequences of exposure to extreme or prolonged weather-related events can also be delayed, encompassing disorders such as posttraumatic stress, or even transmitted to later generations.}, }
@article {pmid32210120, year = {2020}, author = {Magaña Ugarte, R and Escudero, A and Mata, DS and Gavilán, RG}, title = {Changes in Foliar Functional Traits of S. pyrenaicus subsp. carpetanus under the Ongoing Climate Change: A Retrospective Survey.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants9030395}, pmid = {32210120}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {REMEDINAL-TE CM, P2018/EMT-4338//Comunidad de Madrid/ ; }, abstract = {The sensitivity of stomatal behavior and patterning (i.e., distribution, density, size) to environmental stimuli, renders them crucial for defining the physiological performance of leaves. Thus, assessing long-term modifications in stomatal traits in conserved specimens arises as a valuable eco-physiological approach to predict how the rising trend of warmer, drier summers could affect plant fitness; particularly in mountain areas already experiencing climate aggravation and lacking the related monitoring schemes like Mediterranean high-mountains. Variations in foliar and stomatal traits were studied in conserved specimens of Senecio pyrenaicus subsp. carpetanus from Sierra de Guadarrama over the past 71 years. Our findings revealed decreasing trends in leaf width, stomatal size, and increasing tendency in stomatal density, all correlated with the recent 30-year climate exacerbation in these mountains. This evidenced a positive selection favoring traits that allow safeguarding plant performance under drier, hotter weather conditions. The significant relation between stomatal traits and climatic variables upholds the role of stomatal patterning in sensing environmental cues in this species, feasibly optimizing physiological responses involved in the growth-water loss trade-off. The transition to smaller, densely packed stomata observed in recent decades could indicate local-adaptive plasticity in this species, enhancing stomatal response, as coarser environmental conditions take place in Sierra de Guadarrama.}, }
@article {pmid32209235, year = {2020}, author = {Weiskopf, SR and Rubenstein, MA and Crozier, LG and Gaichas, S and Griffis, R and Halofsky, JE and Hyde, KJW and Morelli, TL and Morisette, JT and Muñoz, RC and Pershing, AJ and Peterson, DL and Poudel, R and Staudinger, MD and Sutton-Grier, AE and Thompson, L and Vose, J and Weltzin, JF and Whyte, KP}, title = {Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {137782}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137782}, pmid = {32209235}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.}, }
@article {pmid32208258, year = {2020}, author = {Guevara-Ochoa, C and Medina-Sierra, A and Vives, L}, title = {Spatio-temporal effect of climate change on water balance and interactions between groundwater and surface water in plains.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {722}, number = {}, pages = {137886}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137886}, pmid = {32208258}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The analysis of the impact of climate change on water resources in plains requires integral simulation tools that quantify topographic complexity and the strong interaction of groundwater and surface water components (GW-SW). The objective of this study is to implement a coupled hydrological-hydrogeological model under climate change scenarios in order to quantify the spatio-temporal dynamics of water balance and GW-SW interactions for the upper creek basin of Del Azul, which is located in the center of the province of Buenos Aires. The simulation was carried out for a baseline scenario calibrated and validated for the period 2003-2015 and contrasted with two scenarios of the regional climate model CCSM4, RCP (4.5 and 8.5) simulated for the period 2020-2050. First, the annual and monthly anomalies of precipitation, temperature, surface runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, recharge, flow, as well as the discharge, head level and reserves of groundwater are studied. Then the spatio-temporal anomalies of the GW-SW interaction were analyzed and finally wet and dry periods by means of the standardized precipitation index and the annual water balance were studied. Simulation results show that climate change will significantly alter the spatio-temporal patterns of the GW-SW interaction as well as the water balance. These showed monthly, seasonal and annual variations. They show an increase in most of the components of the water balance towards the middle of the 21st century, except soil moisture. Regarding GW-SW interactions, the average annual discharge of the aquifer to the stream is expected to increase by 5% with RCP 4.5 while it will increase 24% with RCP 8.5. The recharge from the stream to the aquifer is expected to increase by 12% with RCP 4.5 while a decrease by 5% with RCP 8.5. Concerning the SPI related to the water balance for the period 2020-2050, alternations of both the time and the length of dry and wet periods are expected for the two scenarios, with RCP 4.5 low frequency of wet episodes, but with a greater severity and permanence in time in contrast to RCP 8.5 that presents less frequency in dry periods, but with high permanence and severity. Climate change could alter groundwater mainly through changes in the recharge, leading to modify groundwater levels and this will cause GW-SW flow to be reversed in some sectors of the stream by increasing or decreasing groundwater discharge into the stream.}, }
@article {pmid32206835, year = {2020}, author = {Akerlof, KL and Boules, C and Ban Rohring, E and Rohring, B and Kappalman, S}, title = {Governmental Communication of Climate Change Risk and Efficacy: Moving Audiences Toward &quot;Danger Control&quot;.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01283-8}, pmid = {32206835}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Public communication represents a vital civic function for governments developing climate policies, particularly with vulnerable communities under environmental justice mandates. In this study, three videos developed to support a state's climate change public engagement are used to evaluate how governmental communication using the frames of health, science, and local effects influences two theoretically important constructs, risk perception and collective efficacy. Vulnerable audiences differentiated by stress, perceived lack of control, and poor health demonstrate significant gains in collective efficacy relative to risk-&quot;danger control&quot; -after the intervention. But we find no differences between the three frames in their effects on perceptions of climate change risk and collective efficacy.}, }
@article {pmid32206368, year = {2020}, author = {Kim, D and Lee, J}, title = {Spatial Changes in Work Capacity for Occupations Vulnerable to Heat Stress: Potential Regional Impacts From Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Safety and health at work}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.1016/j.shaw.2019.10.004}, pmid = {32206368}, issn = {2093-7911}, abstract = {Background: As the impact of climate change intensifies, exposure to heat stress will grow, leading to a loss of work capacity for vulnerable occupations and affecting individual labor decisions. This study estimates the future work capacity under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario and discusses its regional impacts on the occupational structure in the Republic of Korea.<br><br>Methods: The data utilized for this study constitute the local wet bulb globe temperature from the Korea Meteorological Administration and information from the Korean Working Condition Survey from the Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute of Korea. Using these data, we classify the occupations vulnerable to heat stress and estimate future changes in work capacity at the local scale, considering the occupational structure. We then identify the spatial cluster of diminishing work capacity using exploratory spatial data analysis.<br><br>Results: Our findings indicate that 52 occupations are at risk of heat stress, including machine operators and elementary laborers working in the construction, welding, metal, and mining industries. Moreover, spatial clusters with diminished work capacity appear in southwest Korea.<br><br>Conclusion: Although previous studies investigated the work capacity associated with heat stress in terms of climatic impact, this study quantifies the local impacts due to the global risk of climate change. The results suggest the need for mainstreaming an adaptation policy related to work capacity in regional development strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32205876, year = {2020}, author = {Ivanova, M}, title = {Everyone, everywhere: the global challenge of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {579}, number = {7800}, pages = {488-489}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00834-7}, pmid = {32205876}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32205849, year = {2020}, author = {Vidya, PJ and Ravichandran, M and Subeesh, MP and Chatterjee, S and Nuncio, M}, title = {Author Correction: Global warming hiatus contributed weakening of the Mascarene High in the Southern Indian Ocean.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {5670}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-62006-x}, pmid = {32205849}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32205773, year = {2020}, author = {Dumont, C and Haase, E and Dolber, T and Lewis, J and Coverdale, J}, title = {Climate Change and Risk of Completed Suicide.}, journal = {The Journal of nervous and mental disease}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/NMD.0000000000001162}, pmid = {32205773}, issn = {1539-736X}, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly recognized as having multiple adverse mental health effects, many of which are just beginning to be understood. The elevated rates of suicides observed in some communities affected by climate change and rising rates of suicide in the United States as climate change intensifies have suggested the two may be associated. We searched PubMed and PsycInfo using the terms climate change and suicide, and provide here a review of the current literature on climate change and suicide that explores possible associations and methodological issues and challenges in this research.}, }
@article {pmid32204576, year = {2020}, author = {Francisco Ribeiro, P and Camargo Rodriguez, AV}, title = {Emerging Advanced Technologies to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change in Africa.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants9030381}, pmid = {32204576}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Agriculture remains critical to Africa's socioeconomic development, employing 65% of the work force and contributing 32% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Low productivity, which characterises food production in many Africa countries, remains a major concern. Compounded by the effects of climate change and lack of technical expertise, recent reports suggest that the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food systems in African countries may have further-reaching consequences than previously anticipated. Thus, it has become imperative that African scientists and farmers adopt new technologies which facilitate their research and provide smart agricultural solutions to mitigating current and future climate change-related challenges. Advanced technologies have been developed across the globe to facilitate adaptation to climate change in the agriculture sector. Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)-CRISPR-associated protein 9 (Cas9), synthetic biology, and genomic selection, among others, constitute examples of some of these technologies. In this work, emerging advanced technologies with the potential to effectively mitigate climate change in Africa are reviewed. The authors show how these technologies can be utilised to enhance knowledge discovery for increased production in a climate change-impacted environment. We conclude that the application of these technologies could empower African scientists to explore agricultural strategies more resilient to the effects of climate change. Additionally, we conclude that support for African scientists from the international community in various forms is necessary to help Africans avoid the full undesirable effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32203354, year = {2020}, author = {O'Meara, S}, title = {Deflecting the heat of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00774-2}, pmid = {32203354}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32203328, year = {2019}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {New York City climate-change plan proposes adding land to Manhattan.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00862-y}, pmid = {32203328}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32202817, year = {2020}, author = {Nielsen, KS and Clayton, S and Stern, PC and Dietz, T and Capstick, S and Whitmarsh, L}, title = {How psychology can help limit climate change.}, journal = {The American psychologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1037/amp0000624}, pmid = {32202817}, issn = {1935-990X}, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has encouraged psychologists to become part of the integrated scientific effort to support the achievement of climate change targets such as keeping within 1.5°C or 2°C of global warming. To date, the typical psychological approach has been to demonstrate that specific concepts and theories can predict behaviors that contribute to or mitigate climate change. Psychologists need to go further and, in particular, show that integrating psychological concepts into feasible interventions can reduce greenhouse gas emissions far more than would be achieved without such integration. While critiquing some aspects of current approaches, we describe psychological research that is pointing the way by distinguishing different types of behavior, acknowledging sociocultural context, and collaborating with other disciplines. Engaging this challenge offers psychologists new opportunities for promoting mitigation, advancing psychological understanding, and developing better interdisciplinary interactions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).}, }
@article {pmid32200732, year = {2020}, author = {Gostimirovic, M and Novakovic, R and Rajkovic, J and Djokic, V and Terzic, D and Putnik, S and Gojkovic-Bukarica, L}, title = {The influence of climate change on human cardiovascular function.}, journal = {Archives of environmental &amp; occupational health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.1080/19338244.2020.1742079}, pmid = {32200732}, issn = {2154-4700}, abstract = {Climate change is considered to have great impact on human health. The heat waves have been associated with excess morbidity and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) across various populations and geographic locations. Important role in the heat-induced cardiovascular damage has endothelial dysfunction. It has been noticed that hot weather can impair tone and structure of the blood vessels via interfering with variety of biological factors such as nitric oxide synthesize, cytokine production and systemic inflammation. Also, due to dehydration and increased blood viscosity, by promoting thrombogenesis, heat has important impact on patients with atherosclerosis. During chronic exposure to the cold or hot weather cardiovascular function can be decreased, leading to a higher risk of developing heart attack, malignant cardiac arrhythmias, thromboembolic diseases and heat-induced sepsis like shock. It has been shown that changes in the ambient temperature through increasing blood pressure, blood viscosity, and heart rate, contribute to the cardiovascular mortality. The majority of deaths due to heat waves especially affect individuals with preexisting chronic CVD. This population can experience a decline in the health status, since extreme ambient temperature affects pharmacokinetic parameters of many cardiovascular drugs. Increased mortality from ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke can also be related to extreme temperature variations. On a cellular level, higher ambient temperature can limit storage of ATP and O2increase amount of free radicals and toxic substances and induce neuronal apoptotic signal transduction, which all can lead to a stroke. Preserving cardiovascular function in context of extreme climate changing tends to be particularly challenging.}, }
@article {pmid32200301, year = {2020}, author = {Sun, Y and Ding, J and Siemann, E and Keller, SR}, title = {Biocontrol of invasive weeds under climate change: progress, challenges and management implications.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {38}, number = {}, pages = {72-78}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2020.02.003}, pmid = {32200301}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and impact of plant invasions, creating a need for new control strategies as part of mitigation planning. The complex interactions between invasive plants and biocontrol agents have created distinct policy and management challenges, including the effectiveness and risk assessment of biocontrol under different climate change scenarios. In this brief review, we synthesize recent studies describing the potential ecological and evolutionary outcomes for biocontrol agents/candidates for plant invaders under climate change. We also discuss potential methodologies that can be used as a framework for predicting ecological and evolutionary responses of plant-natural enemy interactions under climate change, and for refining our understanding of the efficacy and risk of using biocontrol on invasive plants.}, }
@article {pmid32199384, year = {2020}, author = {Khalsa, SDS and Smart, DR and Muhammad, S and Armstrong, CM and Sanden, BL and Houlton, BZ and Brown, PH}, title = {Intensive fertilizer use increases orchard N cycling and lowers net global warming potential.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {722}, number = {}, pages = {137889}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137889}, pmid = {32199384}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Nitrogen (N) fertilizer use has simultaneously increased global food production and N losses, resulting in degradation of water quality and climate pollution. A better understanding of N application rates and crop and environmental response is needed to optimize management of agroecosystems. Here we show an orchard agroecosystem with high N use efficiency promoted substantial gains in carbon (C) storage, thereby lowering net global warming potential (GWP). We conducted a 5-year whole-system analysis comparing reduced (224 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and intensive (309 kg N ha-1 yr-1) fertilizer N rates in a California almond orchard. The intensive rate increased net primary productivity (Mg C ha-1) and significantly increased N productivity (kg N ha-1) and net N mineralization (mg N kg-1 soil d-1). Use of 15N tracers demonstrated short and long-term mechanisms of soil N retention. These low organic matter soils (0.3-0.5%) rapidly immobilized fertilizer nitrate within 36 h of N application and 15N in tree biomass recycled back into soil organic matter over five years. Both fertilizer rates resulted in high crop and total N recovery efficiencies of 90% and 98% for the reduced rate, and 72% and 80% for the intensive rate. However, there was no difference in the proportion of N losses to N inputs due to a significant gain in soil total N (TN) in the intensive rate. Higher soil TN significantly increased net N mineralization and a larger gain in soil organic carbon (SOC) from the intensive rate offset nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, leading to significantly lower net GWP of -1.64 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1 compared to -1.22 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1 for the reduced rate. Our study demonstrates increased N cycling and climate mitigation from intensive fertilizer N use in this orchard agroecosystem, implying a fundamentally different result than seen in conventional annual cropping systems.}, }
@article {pmid32198930, year = {2020}, author = {Cecchi, L and D'Amato, G and Annesi-Maesano, I}, title = {Climate change and outdoor aeroallergens related to allergy and asthma. Taking the exposome into account.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/all.14286}, pmid = {32198930}, issn = {1398-9995}, }
@article {pmid32197713, year = {2020}, author = {Kuefner, W and Hofmann, AM and Geist, J and Raeder, U}, title = {Corrigendum to &quot;Evaluating climate change impacts on mountain lakes by applying the new silicification value to paleolimnological samples&quot;[Sci. Total Environ. 715 (2020), 136913].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {137901}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137901}, pmid = {32197713}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid32197010, year = {2020}, author = {Martin, G and Reilly, KC and Gilliland, JA}, title = {Impact of awareness and concerns of climate change on children's mental health: a scoping review protocol.}, journal = {JBI database of systematic reviews and implementation reports}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {516-522}, doi = {10.11124/JBISRIR-D-19-00253}, pmid = {32197010}, issn = {2202-4433}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this scoping review is to identify and describe the existing literature on the impact of the overarching awareness and concerns of climate change on children's mental health and well-being.<br><br>INTRODUCTION: Children are widely acknowledged as being disproportionately at risk to the effects of climate change, yet research overlooks the impact that climate change has on their mental health. Children's overarching awareness of climate change, and its global effects, may influence their mental health and well-being.<br><br>INCLUSION CRITERIA: This review will include all research that addresses school-aged children's (aged 3-19) mental-health issues stemming from an awareness of climate change. It will not include research that examines direct impacts of climate change on children's mental health, such as trauma from a specific climate-related event.<br><br>METHODS: Searches will be conducted across eight research databases (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CINAHL, Embase, GreenFILE, PubMed, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Scopus) and three unpublished/gray literature databases (ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, GreyLit.org, and OpenGrey). Data will be extracted for author(s), year of publication, country of origin, purpose, population, methodology, concepts of interest, outcomes, and key findings relating to the scoping review objectives. Findings will be presented as a narrative summary.}, }
@article {pmid32196868, year = {2020}, author = {Filazzola, A and Matter, SF and Roland, J}, title = {Inclusion of trophic interactions increases the vulnerability of an alpine butterfly species to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15068}, pmid = {32196868}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; //Killam Trusts/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to have significant and complex impacts on ecological communities. In addition to direct effects of climate on species, there can also be indirect effects through an intermediary species, such as in host-plant interactions. Indirect effects are expected to be more pronounced in alpine environments because these ecosystems are sensitive to temperature changes and there are limited areas for migration of both species (i.e. closed systems), and because of simpler trophic interactions. We tested the hypothesis that climate change will reduce the range of an alpine butterfly (Parnassius smintheus) because of indirect effects through its host plant (Sedum sp.). To test for direct and indirect effects, we used the simulations of climate change to assess the distribution of P. smintheus with and without Sedum sp. We also compared the projected ranges of P. smintheus to four other butterfly species that are found in the alpine, but that are generalists feeding on many plant genera. We found that P. smintheus gained distributional area in climate-only models, but these gains were significantly reduced with the inclusion of Sedum sp. and in dry-climate scenarios which resulted in a reduction in net area. When compared to the more generalist butterfly species, P. smintheus exhibited the largest loss in suitable habitat. Our findings support the importance of including indirect effects in modelling species distributions in response to climate change. We highlight the potentially large and still neglected impacts climate change can have on the trophic structure of communities, which can lead to significant losses of biodiversity. In the future, communities will continue to favour species that are generalists as climate change induces asynchronies in the migration of species.}, }
@article {pmid32195054, year = {2020}, author = {Li, M and He, J and Zhao, Z and Lyu, R and Yao, M and Cheng, J and Xie, L}, title = {Predictive modelling of the distribution of Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. under climate change reveals a range expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {e8729}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.8729}, pmid = {32195054}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background: The knowledge of distributional dynamics of living organisms is a prerequisite for protecting biodiversity and for the sustainable use of biotic resources. Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. is a small group of shrubby, yellow-flowered species distributed mainly in arid and semi-arid areas of China. Plants in this section are both horticulturally and ecologically important.<br><br>Methods: Using past, present, and future environmental variables and data with Maximum Entropy (Maxent) modeling, we evaluated the importance of the environmental variables on the section's estimated distributions, thus simulating its distributional dynamics over time. The contractions and expansions of suitable habitat between the past and future scenarios and the present were then compared.<br><br>Results and Discussion: The models revealed that the areas with high and moderate suitability currently encompass about 725,110 km2. The distribution centroid location varies between points in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia during the different scenarios. Elevation, Mean UV-B of Lowest Month, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter were major factors determining the section's distribution. Our modeling indicated that Clematis sect. Fruticella underwent a significant range contraction during the last interglacial period, and then expanded during the last glacial maximum (LGM) to amounts like those of the present. Cold, dry, and relatively stable climate, as well as steppe or desert steppe environments may have facilitated range expansion of this cold-adapted, drought-resistant plant taxon during the LGM. Predicted future scenarios show little change in the amounts of suitable habitat for Clematis sect. Fruticella. This study aids understanding of the distributional dynamics of Clematis sect. Fruticella, and the results will help the conservation and sustainable use of these important woody plants in Chinese arid and semiarid areas.}, }
@article {pmid32193806, year = {2020}, author = {Fan, JL and Zeng, B and Hu, JW and Zhang, X and Wang, H}, title = {The impact of climate change on residential energy consumption in urban and rural divided southern and northern China.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10653-019-00430-3}, pmid = {32193806}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {CBA2018-02MY-Fan//Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research/ ; 71874193//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71503249//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71203008//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {In different regions of China, climate change has various influences on urban and rural residential energy consumption, which also shows that the research on it could be profoundly vital in order to formulate the energy-saving and emission-reducing policies. Based the provincial panel data from 2000-2016, the extended stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (extended STIRPAT) model was utilized to evaluate the impacts of climate change on residential energy consumption in different Chinese regions. The results show that: (1) during 2000 to 2016, the urban and rural energy consumption enlarged by 878.83 billion kWh and 488.98 billion kWh, respectively. In addition, electricity and oil have occupied more proportion in urban energy consumption, while coal still plays an important role in rural residential energy consumption (28.2%). (2) Heating degree day (HDD) and cooling degree day (CDD) have positive influences on urban and rural residential energy consumption in different areas, and the elastic coefficients are 0.028-0.371 and 0.066-0.158, respectively. (3) The elastic coefficient of CDD in urban areas of southern regions (0.158) is much larger than that in northern regions (0.068).}, }
@article {pmid32184791, year = {2020}, author = {Jiménez, S and Fattahi, M and Bedis, K and Nasrolahpour-Moghadam, S and Irigoyen, JJ and Gogorcena, Y}, title = {Interactional Effects of Climate Change Factors on the Water Status, Photosynthetic Rate, and Metabolic Regulation in Peach.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {43}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00043}, pmid = {32184791}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Environmental stress factors caused by climate change affect plant growth and crop production, and pose a growing threat to sustainable agriculture, especially for tree crops. In this context, we sought to investigate the responses to climate change of two Prunus rootstocks (GF677 and Adesoto) budded with Catherina peach cultivar. Plants were grown in 15 L pots in temperature gradient greenhouses for an 18 days acclimation period after which six treatments were applied: [CO2 levels (400 versus 700 µmol mol-1), temperature (ambient versus ambient + 4°C), and water availability (well irrigated versus drought)]. After 23 days, the effects of stress were evaluated as changes in physiological and biochemical traits, including expression of relevant genes. Stem water potential decreased under drought stress in plants grafted on GF677 and Adesoto rootstocks; however, elevated CO2 and temperature affected plant water content differently in both combinations. The photosynthetic rate of plants grafted on GF677 increased under high CO2, but decreased under high temperature and drought conditions. The photosynthetic rates of plants grafted onto Adesoto were only affected by drought treatment. Furthermore, in GF677-Catherina plants, elevated CO2 alleviated the effect of drought, whereas in those grafted onto Adesoto, the same condition produced acclimation in the rate. Stomatal conductance decreased under high CO2 and drought stress in both grafted rootstocks, and the combination of these conditions improved water-use efficiency. Changes in the sugar content in scion leaves and roots were significantly different under the stress conditions in both combinations. Meanwhile, the expression of most of the assessed genes was significantly affected by treatment. Regarding genotypes, GF677 rootstock showed more changes at the molecular and transcriptomic level than did Adesoto rootstock. A coordinated shift was found between the physiological status and the transcriptomic responses. This study revealed adaptive responses to climate change at the physiological, metabolic, and transcriptomic levels in two Prunus rootstocks budded with 'Catherina'. Overall, these results demonstrate the resilient capacity and plasticity of these contrasting genotypes, which can be further used to combat ongoing climate changes and support sustainable peach production.}, }
@article {pmid32184767, year = {2020}, author = {Hereme, R and Morales-Navarro, S and Ballesteros, G and Barrera, A and Ramos, P and Gundel, PE and Molina-Montenegro, MA}, title = {Fungal Endophytes Exert Positive Effects on Colobanthus quitensis Under Water Stress but Neutral Under a Projected Climate Change Scenario in Antarctica.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {264}, doi = {10.3389/fmicb.2020.00264}, pmid = {32184767}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Functional symbiosis is considered one of the successful mechanisms by which plants that inhabit extreme environment improve their ability to tolerate different types of stress. One of the most conspicuous type of symbiosis is the endophyticism. This interaction has been noted to play a role in the adaptation of the native vascular plant Colobanthus quitensis to the stressful environments of Antarctica, characterized by low temperatures and extreme aridity. Projections of climate change for this ecosystem indicate that abiotic conditions will be less limiting due to an increase in temperature and water availability in the soil. Due to this decrease in stress induced by the climate change, it has been suggested that the positive role of fungal endophytes on performance of C. quitensis plants would decrease. In this study, we evaluated the role of endophytic fungi on osmoprotective molecules (sugar production, proline, oxidative stress) and gene expression (CqNCED1, CqABCG25, and CqRD22) as well as physiological traits (stomatal opening, net photosynthesis, and stomatal conductance) in individuals of C. quitensis. Individual plants of C. quitensis with (E+) and without (E-) endophytic fungi were exposed to simulated conditions of increased water availability (W+), having the current limiting water condition (W-) in Antarctica as control. The results reveal an endophyte-mediated lower oxidative stress, higher production of sugars and proline in plants. In addition, E+ plants showed differential expressions in genes related with drought stress response, which was more evident in W- than in W+. These parameters corresponded with increased physiological mechanisms such as higher net photosynthesis, stomatal opening and conductance under presence of endophytes (E+) as well as the projected water condition (W+) for Antarctica. These results suggest that the presence of fungal endophytes plays a positive role in favoring tolerance to drought in C. quitensis. However, this positive role would be diminished if the stress factor is relaxed, suggesting that the role of endophytes could be less important under a future scenario of climate change in Antarctica with higher soil water availability.}, }
@article {pmid32184532, year = {2020}, author = {Harkness, C and Semenov, MA and Areal, F and Senapati, N and Trnka, M and Balek, J and Bishop, J}, title = {Adverse weather conditions for UK wheat production under climate change.}, journal = {Agricultural and forest meteorology}, volume = {282-283}, number = {}, pages = {107862}, doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107862}, pmid = {32184532}, issn = {0168-1923}, abstract = {Winter wheat is an important crop in the UK, suited to the typical weather conditions in the current climate. In a changing climate the increased frequency and severity of adverse weather events, which are often localised, are considered a major threat to wheat production. In the present study we assessed a range of adverse weather conditions, which can significantly affect yield, under current and future climates based on adverse weather indices. We analysed changes in the frequency, magnitude and spatial patterns of 10 adverse weather indices, at 25 sites across the UK, using climate scenarios from the CMIP5 ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The future UK climate is expected to remain favourable for wheat production, with most adverse weather indicators reducing in magnitude by the mid-21st century. Hotter and drier summers would improve sowing and harvesting conditions and reduce the risk of lodging. The probability of late frosts and heat stress during reproductive and grain filling periods would likely remain small in 2050. Wetter winter and spring could cause issues with waterlogging. The severity of drought stress during reproduction would generally be lower in 2050, however localised differences suggest it is important to examine drought at a small spatial scale. Prolonged water stress does not increase considerably in the UK, as may be expected in other parts of Europe. Climate projections based on the CMIP5 ensemble reveal considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of adverse weather conditions including waterlogging, drought and water stress. The variation in adverse weather conditions due to GCMs was generally greater than between emissions scenarios. Accordingly, CMIP5 ensembles should be used in the assessment of adverse weather conditions for crop production to indicate the full range of possible impacts, which a limited number of GCMs may not provide.}, }
@article {pmid32183303, year = {2020}, author = {Gartin, M and Larson, KL and Brewis, A and Stotts, R and Wutich, A and White, D and du Bray, M}, title = {Climate Change as an Involuntary Exposure: A Comparative Risk Perception Study from Six Countries across the Global Development Gradient.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph17061894}, pmid = {32183303}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {SES-0951366//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been referred to as an involuntary exposure, meaning people do not voluntarily put themselves at risk for climate-related ill health or reduced standard of living. The purpose of this study is to examine people's risk perceptions and related beliefs regarding (1) the likelihood of different risks occurring at different times and places and (2) collective (government) responsibility and personal efficacy in dealing with climate change, as well as (3) explore the ways in which climate risk may be amplified when posed against individual health and well-being. Previous research on this topic has largely focused on one community or one nation state, and so a unique characteristic of this study is the comparison between six different city (country) sites by their development and national wealth. Here, we collected 401 surveys from Phoenix (USA), Brisbane (Australia), Wellington (New Zealand), Shanghai (China), Viti Levu (Fiji), and Mexico City (Mexico). Results suggest that the hyperopia effect characterized the sample from each study site but was more pronounced in developed sites, suggesting that the more developed sites employ a broader perspective when approaching ways to mitigate their risk against climate-related health and well-being impacts.}, }
@article {pmid32179849, year = {2020}, author = {Kusunoki, S and Ose, T and Hosaka, M}, title = {Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4802}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-61792-8}, pmid = {32179849}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The future time of emergence when precipitation changes due to anthropogenic influences begins to continuously exceed the previous maximum value is defined as the 'tipping year' Historical experiments and future experiments simulated by state-of-the-art climate models were utilized. A total of 510,000 time series from year 1856 to 2095 were generated by sampling the natural internal variability in precipitation. The time evolutions of internal variability in the whole time period were estimated from the combination of past and future experiments with preindustrial control experiments. A large ensemble size enabled an estimation of the probability density function of the tipping year at each grid point, providing precise information on the uncertainty of the projection. The tipping year of average precipitation emerges earlier in high latitudes than in lower latitudes. In some regions in lower latitudes and mid-latitudes, the tipping year of intense precipitation emerges faster than that of average precipitation. The tipping years of average and intense precipitation are earlier for higher anthropogenic forcing scenarios than for lower scenarios. The global average of the tipping year for intense precipitation might be attributed to the enhancement of the thermodynamic effect (moisture) rather than the dynamic effect (vertical motion).}, }
@article {pmid32179351, year = {2020}, author = {Dai, C and Qin, XS and Lu, WT and Huang, Y}, title = {Assessing adaptation measures on agricultural water productivity under climate change: A case study of Huai River Basin, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {721}, number = {}, pages = {137777}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137777}, pmid = {32179351}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study explored an integrated framework to assess the effectiveness of adaptation measures on the water productivity (WP) of the agricultural water management (AWM) system in the Huai river basin of China considering climate change impact. The adaptation measures include optimization of cropping pattern (OCP) and upgradation of irrigation techniques (UIT). The delta change method was used to downscale the climate variables from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of general circulation models (GCMs) during 2021-2050, the water footprint theory was used to estimate the spatial distribution of blue water to calculate the WP, and the nonlinear optimization model was used to seek optimal cropping pattern aiming at maximizing the system's WP. The changes in WP due to climate change and adaptation measures (e.g. combinations of OCP and UIT) were compared. Results indicated that WP under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would be 4.56% and 6.51% lower than those under the benchmark scenario, respectively. The mitigation rates to the negative impact of climate change on WP under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would be (1) 3.05% and 3.37% for the combination of spay irrigation technique and OCP, and (2) 4.34% and 4.59% for the combination of drip irrigation technique and OCP, respectively. It was revealed that the combination of drip irrigation and cropping pattern optimization could largely offset the adverse effect from climate change on WP under RCP4.5. Under such a scenario, the total plant areas of wheat and maize would reduce over the basin and so would the net export of crops in the basin; this would lead to a decrease in the crop trade benefit of 7.07 × 109 $ and a relief of 7.50 × 109 m3 of blue water loss. This study results could offer strategic decision support for long-term sustainable AWM of Huai river basin in a changing environment.}, }
@article {pmid32174933, year = {2020}, author = {Villette, J and Cuéllar, T and Verdeil, JL and Delrot, S and Gaillard, I}, title = {Grapevine Potassium Nutrition and Fruit Quality in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {123}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00123}, pmid = {32174933}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Potassium (K+) nutrition is of relevant interest for winegrowers because it influences grapevine growth, berry composition, as well as must and wine quality. Indeed, wine quality strongly depends on berry composition at harvest. However, K+ content of grape berries increased steadily over the last decades, in part due to climate change. Currently, the properties and qualities of many fruits are also impacted by environment. In grapevine, this disturbs berry properties resulting in unbalanced wines with poor organoleptic quality and low acidity. This requires a better understanding of the molecular basis of K+ accumulation and its control along grape berry development. This mini-review summarizes our current knowledge on K+ nutrition in relation with fruit quality in the context of a changing environment.}, }
@article {pmid32172340, year = {2020}, author = {Singh, RK and Sinha, VSP and Joshi, PK and Kumar, M}, title = {Modelling Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) in response to climate change scenarios for the SAARC nations.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {4}, pages = {236}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-8144-2}, pmid = {32172340}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {Agriculture and forestry are the two major land use classes providing sustenance to the human population. With the pace of development, these two land use classes continue to change over time. Land use change is a dynamic process under the influence of multiple drivers including climate change. Therefore, tracing the trajectory of the changes is challenging. The artificial neural network (ANN) has successfully been applied for tracing such a dynamic process to capture nonlinear responses. We test the application of the multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP-NN) to project the future Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) for the year 2050 for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) nations which is a geopolitical union of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) use much frequently the term 'AFOLU' in their policy documents. Hence, we restricted our land use classification scheme as AFOLU for assessing the influence of climate change scenarios of the IPCC fifth assessment report (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). Agricultural land would increase in all the SAARC nations, with the highest increase in Pakistan and Maldives; moderate increase in Afghanistan, India and Nepal; and the least increase in Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka. The forestry land use will witness a decreasing trend under all scenarios in all of the SAARC nations with varying levels of changes. The study is expected to assist planners and policymakers to develop nations' specific strategy to proportionate land use classes to meet various needs on a sustainable basis.}, }
@article {pmid32170152, year = {2020}, author = {Tsai, HY and Rubenstein, DR and Fan, YM and Yuan, TN and Chen, BF and Tang, Y and Chen, IC and Shen, SF}, title = {Locally-adapted reproductive photoperiodism determines population vulnerability to climate change in burying beetles.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1398}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15208-w}, pmid = {32170152}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {AS-SS-106-05//Academia Sinica/ ; AS-IA-106-L01//Academia Sinica/ ; 108-2314-B-001 -009 -MY3, 103-2621-B-001 -003 -MY3 and 101-2313-B-001 -008 -MY3//Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan)/ ; }, abstract = {Understanding how phenotypic traits vary among populations inhabiting different environments is critical for predicting a species' vulnerability to climate change. Yet, little is known about the key functional traits that determine the distribution of populations and the main mechanisms-phenotypic plasticity vs. local adaptation-underlying intraspecific functional trait variation. Using the Asian burying beetle Nicrophorus nepalensis, we demonstrate that mountain ranges differing in elevation and latitude offer unique thermal environments in which two functional traits-thermal tolerance and reproductive photoperiodism-interact to shape breeding phenology. We show that populations on different mountain ranges maintain similar thermal tolerances, but differ in reproductive photoperiodism. Through common garden and reciprocal transplant experiments, we confirm that reproductive photoperiodism is locally adapted and not phenotypically plastic. Accordingly, year-round breeding populations on mountains of intermediate elevation are likely to be most susceptible to future warming because maladaptation occurs when beetles try to breed at warmer temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid32169674, year = {2020}, author = {Charlier, P and Héry-Arnaud, G and Coppens, Y and Malaurie, J and Hoang-Oppermann, V and Deps, P and Kenmogne, JB and Foka, M and Josué, E and Schor, XE and Brun, L and Kepanga, M and Evanty, N and Julia, E and Bose, S and Iaukea, L and Romero Epiayu, J and Deo, S and Augias, A and Claverie, JM}, title = {Global warming and planetary health: An open letter to the WHO from scientific and indigenous people urging for paleo-microbiology studies.}, journal = {Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {104284}, doi = {10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104284}, pmid = {32169674}, issn = {1567-7257}, abstract = {This article, written by a collective of international researchers and worldwide representatives of indigenous populations, is an open letter to the WHO, based on the latest elements from the scientific literature, and the latest climatological data. It takes stock of the health consequences of global warming, and urges research organizations to take an interest in infectious agents formerly stored in the layers of ground (frozen or not) and now mobilized, then released from a distance.}, }
@article {pmid32167633, year = {2020}, author = {Magel, JMT and Dimoff, SA and Baum, JK}, title = {Direct and indirect effects of climate change-amplified pulse heat stress events on coral reef fish communities.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2124}, pmid = {32167633}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {Climate change-amplified temperature anomalies pose an imminent threat to coral reef ecosystems. While much focus has been placed on the effects of heat stress on scleractinian corals-including bleaching, mortality, and loss of reef structural complexity-and many studies have documented changes to reef fish communities arising indirectly from shifts in benthic composition, the direct impacts of heat stress on reef fish are much less well understood. Here, we quantify the direct and indirect effects of heat stress on reef fishes, using underwater visual censuses of coral reef fish communities conducted before, during, and after the 2015-2016 El Niño-induced global coral bleaching event. Surveys took place at the epicentre of this event, at 16 sites on Kiritimati (Republic of Kiribati; central equatorial Pacific) spanning across a gradient of local human disturbance. We expected that heat stress would have both direct and indirect negative effects on the reef fish community-with direct effects resulting from physiological stress during the event, and indirect effects manifesting afterwards as a consequence of coral mortality-and that the ability of fish communities to recover following the heat stress would depend on levels of local human disturbance. We found that total reef fish biomass and abundance declined by> 50% during heat stress, likely as a result of vertical migration of fish to cooler waters. One year after the cessation of heat stress, however, total biomass, abundance, and species richness had recovered to-or even exceeded-pre-heat stress levels. However, the biomass of corallivores declined by over 70% following severe coral loss, and reefs exposed to higher levels of local human disturbance showed impaired recovery following the heat stress. These findings enhance understanding of the projected impacts of climate change-associated marine heatwaves on reef fishes, and highlight the interacting effects of local and global stressors on this vital component of coral reef ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid32167619, year = {2020}, author = {Hunt, JR and Celestina, C and Kirkegaard, JA}, title = {The realities of climate change, conservation agriculture and soil carbon sequestration.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15082}, pmid = {32167619}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {The catastrophic bushfires experienced in south eastern Australia during the southern summer of 2020 have provided humanity with a timely reminder of the true horrors that can unfold in a rapidly warming world. As the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and offset them with carbon sequestration gains urgency, much is made of the potential for agricultural soils to act as a carbon sinks (Poulton et al. 2018). It is therefore timely that the study of Sun et al. (2020) in this issue delivers a dose of realism about the potential for conservation agriculture to sequester carbon in cropping soils across the globe, and its relationship with agricultural productivity.}, }
@article {pmid32167293, year = {2020}, author = {Vandepaer, L and Panos, E and Bauer, C and Amor, B}, title = {Energy system pathways with low environmental impacts and limited costs: minimizing climate change impacts produces environmental co-benefits and challenges in toxicity and metal depletion categories.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b06484}, pmid = {32167293}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Environmental indicators based on the life cycle assessment (LCA) method are integrated into an energy system model (ESM). This integration allows for the generation of comprehensive environmental assessments of future energy systems and for determining energy scenarios with low environmental impacts and moderate cost increases. In Switzerland, which is used as a case study to demonstrate the feasibility of our approach, it is possible to generate pathways with a 5% cost increase on the cost-optimal situation, causing an impact score for climate change that is 2% higher than the minimum feasible solution. The minimization of life-cycle impacts on climate change generates substantial environmental co-benefits with regards to human health, air pollution, ozone depletion, acidification, and land transformation. However, that minimization also creates trade-offs that exacerbate the effects of metal depletion and human toxicity caused by upstream extraction and manufacturing linked to technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles. Finally, ambitious reduction targets of 95% direct (i.e., within the country) CO2 emissions for the year 2050 might still result in substantial climate change impacts should emissions embodied in the infrastructure and upstream supply chain not be jointly mitigated jointly.}, }
@article {pmid32167169, year = {2020}, author = {Sutton, B and Mulvenna, V and Voronoff, D and Humphrys, T}, title = {Acting on climate change and health in Victoria.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.50527}, pmid = {32167169}, issn = {1326-5377}, }
@article {pmid32166685, year = {2020}, author = {Shahbaz, P and Boz, I and Ul Haq, S}, title = {Adaptation options for small livestock farmers having large ruminants (cattle and buffalo) against climate change in Central Punjab Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08112-9}, pmid = {32166685}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Climate change is not a myth anymore and changing with every passing year regardless of the efforts to mitigate its root causes. Livestock being a key source of employment to a large poor world population also contributes to food security and poverty eradication. With the changing climate livestock farmers are also making their farms compatible to the new natural ecosystem. Therefore, this study investigated how small livestock farmers having large ruminants inventory perceive changes in climate, which strategies they adapt and the factors influencing the adaptation of climate changes strategies in livestock. Primary data was collected from 180 small livestock farmers of Central Punjab, and multiple (step-wise) regression analysis was used to determine the factors affecting adaptation of climate change strategies. Livestock farmers are also well aware of the climate change as majority of the farmers (63.4% and 71.4%) perceived an increase in temperature and precipitation, respectively. Livestock farmers made an attempt to adopt conventional climate change strategies such as mix farming, reduction in animals, provision of more drinking water, use of tree shades, livestock diversification, use of muddy roof, and floor in order to cope with climate changes. The adoption of these measures was significantly influenced by animal inventory, climate knowledge, livestock working hours, livestock experience, distance of veterinary hospital, and livestock-related training/workshops. Government needs to increase technical and logistic capacity of veterinary doctors, and should create awareness among small livestock farmers through media.}, }
@article {pmid32166442, year = {2020}, author = {Ferreira, NCR and Miranda, JH}, title = {Potential occurrence of Puccinia sorghi in corn crops in Paraná, under scenarios of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01880-6}, pmid = {32166442}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {In the face of climate change scenarios, it is important to evaluate the possibility of an increase in the incidence of corn crop diseases and to promote studies aimed at creating mitigation measures. This paper aims to study the impacts that regional climate changes may have on the potential occurrence of corn common rust (Puccinia sorghi), in the region of Castro, Paraná (Brazil). The Eta climate model was driven by the global model CanESM2. We use the Historical simulation of the EtaCanESM2 model from 1981 to 2005, and future projections from 2046 to 2070 to simulate the occurrence of common rust. The criteria was adopted to simulate the common rust disease favored in environments with the minimum temperature lower than 8 °C, the maximum temperature higher than 32 °C, average temperature between 16 and 23 °C, and relative humidity higher than 95%. In Brazil, there are two different seasons for corn crop (Normaland Safrinha). Results show that relative humidity and minimum temperature simulated by the model presented good skills, approaching the observed data. Compared to the Historical simulation, the projections show a tendency to increase of maximum and minimum temperature in the future, and a tendency to decrease relative humidity. There is an increase in the number of days with the potential for the occurrence of the disease. The distribution of days with favorable conditions to rust disease tends to change in the future. In the Normaland Safrinhaseasons, there is a tendency to increase the number of days with favorable conditions to common rust occurrence. The influence of planting time is greater in Historical simulation when compared to future scenarios. The Safrinhaseason may present more days with the potential for the occurrence of common rust in the future than the Normalseason.}, }
@article {pmid32165743, year = {2020}, author = {Gyles, C}, title = {Climate Change - A response.}, journal = {The Canadian veterinary journal = La revue veterinaire canadienne}, volume = {61}, number = {3}, pages = {225}, pmid = {32165743}, issn = {0008-5286}, }
@article {pmid32165742, year = {2020}, author = {Wilson, M}, title = {Climate Change.}, journal = {The Canadian veterinary journal = La revue veterinaire canadienne}, volume = {61}, number = {3}, pages = {225}, pmid = {32165742}, issn = {0008-5286}, }
@article {pmid32165456, year = {2020}, author = {Stacy, A}, title = {Climate change in common.}, journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {164}, pmid = {32165456}, issn = {1715-5258}, }
@article {pmid32163476, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, L and Liao, J and Wu, Y and Zhang, Y}, title = {Breeding range shift of the red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {e0229984}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0229984}, pmid = {32163476}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) is an endangered species listed by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) HARRIS J (2013). The largest population of this species is distributed mainly in China and Russia, which is called continental population SU L (2012)-Curt D (1996). This population is migratory, which migrates from its breeding range located in Northeast China and Southern Russia, to the wintering range in the south of China to spend the winter every year. The breeding range of this species is critical for red-crowned crane to survive and maintain its population. Previous studies showed the negative effects of habitat loss and degradation on the breeding area of red-crowned crane Ma Z (1998), Claire M (2019). Climate change may also threat the survival of this endangered species. Previous studies investigated the impacts of climate change on the breeding range or wintering range in China Wu (2012), [1]. However, no study was conducted to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the whole breeding range of this species. Here, we used bioclimatic niche modeling to predict the potential breeding range of red-crowned crane under current climate conditions and project onto future climate change scenarios. Our results show that the breeding range of the continental population of red-crowned crane will shift northward over this century and lose almost all of its current actual breeding range. The climate change will also change the country owning the largest portion of breeding range from China to Russia, suggesting that Russia should take more responsibility to preserve this endangered species in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32162168, year = {2020}, author = {Seritan, AL and Seritan, I}, title = {The Time Is Now: Climate Change and Mental Health.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s40596-020-01212-1}, pmid = {32162168}, issn = {1545-7230}, }
@article {pmid32159002, year = {2018}, author = {Sorensen, C and Saunik, S and Sehgal, M and Tewary, A and Govindan, M and Lemery, J and Balbus, J}, title = {Climate Change and Women's Health: Impacts and Opportunities in India.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {2}, number = {10}, pages = {283-297}, doi = {10.1029/2018GH000163}, pmid = {32159002}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Climate change impacts on health, including increased exposures to heat, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and altered vector-borne disease transmission, reduced water quality, and decreased food security, affect men and women differently due to biologic, socioeconomic, and cultural factors. In India, where rapid environmental changes are taking place, climate change threatens to widen existing gender-based health disparities. Integration of a gendered perspective into existing climate, development, and disaster-risk reduction policy frameworks can decrease negative health outcomes. Modifying climate risks requires multisector coordination, improvement in data acquisition, monitoring of gender specific targets, and equitable stakeholder engagement. Empowering women as agents of social change can improve mitigation and adaptation policy interventions.}, }
@article {pmid32158993, year = {2017}, author = {Muhling, BA and Jacobs, J and Stock, CA and Gaitan, CF and Saba, VS}, title = {Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high-emission climate change scenario.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {1}, number = {7}, pages = {278-296}, doi = {10.1002/2017GH000089}, pmid = {32158993}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Illness caused by pathogenic strains of Vibrio bacteria incurs significant economic and health care costs in many areas around the world. In the Chesapeake Bay, the two most problematic species are V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, which cause infection both from exposure to contaminated water and consumption of contaminated seafood. We used existing Vibrio habitat models, four global climate models, and a recently developed statistical downscaling framework to project the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in the estuarine environment, and the mean concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the 21st century. Results showed substantial future increases in season length and spatial habitat for V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, while projected increase in V. cholerae habitat was less marked and more spatially heterogeneous. Our findings underscore the need for spatially variable inputs into models of climate impacts on Vibrios in estuarine environments. Overall, economic costs associated with Vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, such as incidence of illness and management measures on the shellfish industry, may increase under climate change, with implications for recreational and commercial uses of the ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid32158983, year = {2017}, author = {Anenberg, SC and Weinberger, KR and Roman, H and Neumann, JE and Crimmins, A and Fann, N and Martinich, J and Kinney, PL}, title = {Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {80-92}, doi = {10.1002/2017GH000055}, pmid = {32158983}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof-of-concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present-day and climate-induced changes in oak pollen. We estimated oak pollen season length for moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts associated with 1994-2010 average oak pollen concentrations and simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, driven by epidemiologically derived concentration-response relationships. Oak pollen was associated with 21,200 (95% confidence interval, 10,000-35,200) asthma ED visits in the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest U.S. in 2010, with damages valued at $10.4 million. Nearly 70% of these occurred among children age <18 years. Severe climate change could increase oak pollen season length and associated asthma ED visits by 5% and 10% on average in 2050 and 2090, with a marginal net present value through 2090 of $10.4 million (additional to the baseline value of $346.2 million). Moderate versus severe climate change could avoid >50% of the additional oak pollen-related asthma ED visits in 2090. Despite several key uncertainties and limitations, these results suggest that aeroallergens pose a substantial U.S. public health burden, that climate change could increase U.S. allergic disease incidence, and that mitigating climate change may have benefits from avoided pollen-related health impacts.}, }
@article {pmid32159584, year = {2020}, author = {Bosi, C and Pezzopane, JRM and Sentelhas, PC}, title = {Silvopastoral system with Eucalyptus as a strategy for mitigating the effects of climate change on Brazilian pasturelands.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {92}, number = {suppl 1}, pages = {e20180425}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765202020180425}, pmid = {32159584}, issn = {1678-2690}, abstract = {The aim of the present study was to assess the effect of Eucalyptus trees in a silvopastoral system on the microclimate and the capacity of that to mitigate the effects of climate change on pasturelands. This study included an open pasture of Piatã palisadegrass and an adjacent pasture that contained both palisadegrass and East-to-West rows of Eucalyptus trees, with 15 m between rows, 2 m between trees within rows. The micrometeorological measurements were collected at several distances from the tree rows and in the open pasture. The silvopastoral system was associated with greater between-row shading when solar declination was high and greater near-tree shading when solar declination was around -22°. Both soil heat flux and temperature were influenced by solar radiation, wind speed, and the ability of tree canopies to reduce radiation losses. Wind speed was consistently lower in the silvopastoral system, owing to the windbreak effect of the Eucalyptus trees. The present study demonstrated that silvopastoral systems can be used to attenuate the effects of climate change, as trees can protect pastureland from intense solar radiation and wind, thereby reducing evapotranspiration and, consequently, improving soil water availability for the understory crop.}, }
@article {pmid32159021, year = {2019}, author = {Gorris, ME and Treseder, KK and Zender, CS and Randerson, JT}, title = {Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {3}, number = {10}, pages = {308-327}, doi = {10.1029/2019GH000209}, pmid = {32159021}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) is a fungal disease endemic to the southwestern United States. Across this region, temperature and precipitation influence the extent of the endemic region and number of Valley fever cases. Climate projections for the western United States indicate that temperatures will increase and precipitation patterns will shift, which may alter disease dynamics. We estimated the area potentially endemic to Valley fever using a climate niche model derived from contemporary climate and disease incidence data. We then used our model with projections of climate from Earth system models to assess how endemic areas will change during the 21st century. By 2100 in a high warming scenario, our model predicts that the area of climate-limited endemicity will more than double, the number of affected states will increase from 12 to 17, and the number of Valley fever cases will increase by 50%. The Valley fever endemic region will expand north into dry western states, including Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. Precipitation will limit the disease from spreading into states farther east and along the central and northern Pacific coast. This is the first quantitative estimate of how climate change may influence Valley fever in the United States. Our predictive model of Valley fever endemicity may provide guidance to public health officials to establish disease surveillance programs and design mitigation efforts to limit the impacts of this disease.}, }
@article {pmid32158513, year = {2020}, author = {Mohan, V and Hardee, K and Savitzky, C}, title = {Building community resilience to climate change: The role of a Population-Health-Environment programme in supporting the community response to cyclone Haruna in Madagascar.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {730}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v12i1.730}, pmid = {32158513}, issn = {1996-1421}, }
@article {pmid32153649, year = {2018}, author = {Baker, JS and Havlík, P and Beach, R and Leclère, D and Schmid, E and Valin, H and Cole, J and Creason, J and Ohrel, S and McFarland, J}, title = {Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aac1c2}, pmid = {32153649}, issn = {1748-9326}, abstract = {Agriculture is one of the sectors that is expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. There has been considerable interest in assessing these impacts and many recent studies investigating agricultural impacts for individual countries and regions using an array of models. However, the great majority of existing studies explore impacts on a country or region of interest without explicitly accounting for impacts on the rest of the world. This approach can bias the results of impact assessments for agriculture given the importance of global trade in this sector. Due to potential impacts on relative competitiveness, international trade, global supply, and prices, the net impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in each region depend not only on productivity impacts within that region, but on how climate change impacts agricultural productivity throughout the world. In this study, we apply a global model of agriculture and forestry to evaluate climate change impacts on US agriculture with and without accounting for climate change impacts in the rest of the world. In addition, we examine scenarios where trade is expanded to explore the implications for regional allocation of production, trade volumes, and prices. To our knowledge, this is one of the only attempts to explicitly quantify the relative importance of accounting for global climate change when conducting regional assessments of climate change impacts. The results of our analyses reveal substantial differences in estimated impacts on the US agricultural sector when accounting for global impacts vs. US-only impacts, particularly for commodities where the United States has a smaller share of global production. In addition, we find that freer trade can play an important role in helping to buffer regional productivity shocks.}, }
@article {pmid32154079, year = {2020}, author = {Yang, F and Antonietti, M}, title = {Artificial Humic Acids: Sustainable Materials against Climate Change.}, journal = {Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany)}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {1902992}, doi = {10.1002/advs.201902992}, pmid = {32154079}, issn = {2198-3844}, abstract = {Humic acid, as a natural organic matter, is widely distributed in surface soil, oceans, rivers, and other ecological environments throughout the whole earth ecosystem. Humic acid provides abundant organic carbon and helps to maintain a hydrated, pH and redox buffered environment hosting the soil microbiome. Humic acid is however also a largely ignored polymer material full of exciting functional properties, and its scale is enormous. This perspective article discusses its synthesis and management as a tool to tackle parts of the climate crisis as well its use in technological applications, as made by chemical conversion of agricultural side products to artificial humic acids.}, }
@article {pmid32153323, year = {2020}, author = {Yadav, S and Mishra, A}, title = {Ectopic expression of C4 photosynthetic pathway genes improves carbon assimilation and alleviate stress tolerance for future climate change.}, journal = {Physiology and molecular biology of plants : an international journal of functional plant biology}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {195-209}, doi = {10.1007/s12298-019-00751-8}, pmid = {32153323}, issn = {0971-5894}, abstract = {Alteration in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and other environmental factors are the significant cues of global climate change. Environmental factors affect the most fundamental biological process including photosynthesis and different metabolic pathways. The feeding of the rapidly growing world population is another challenge which imposes pressure to improve productivity and quality of the existing crops. C4 plants are considered the most productive, containing lower photorespiration, and higher water-use &amp; N-assimilation efficiencies, compared to C3 plants. Besides, the C4-photosynthetic genes not only play an important role in carbon assimilation but also modulate abiotic stresses. In this review, fundamental three metabolic processes (C4, C3, and CAM) of carbon dioxide assimilation, the evolution of C4-photosynthetic genes, effect of elevated CO2 on photosynthesis, and overexpression of C4-photosynthetic genes for higher photosynthesis were discussed. Kranz-anatomy is considered an essential prerequisite for the terrestrial C4 carbon assimilation, but single-celled C4 plant species changed this well-established paradigm. C4 plants are insensitive to an elevated CO2 stress condition but performed better under stress conditions. Overexpression of essential C4-photosynthetic genes such as PEPC, PPDK, and NADP-ME in C3 plants like Arabidopsis, tobacco, rice, wheat, and potato not only improved photosynthesis but also provided tolerance to various environmental stresses, especially drought. The review provides useful information for sustainable productivity and yield under elevated CO2 environment, which to be explored further for CO2 assimilation and also abiotic stress tolerance. Additionally, it provides a better understanding to explore C4-photosynthetic gene(s) to cope with global warming and prospective adverse climatic changes.}, }
@article {pmid32152872, year = {2020}, author = {Battersby, J and Hunter-Adams, J}, title = {No Looking Back: [Food]ways Forward for Healthy African Cities in Light of Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11524-020-00429-7}, pmid = {32152872}, issn = {1468-2869}, support = {108458//International Development Research Centre/ ; }, }
@article {pmid32152856, year = {2020}, author = {Li, X and Li, Y and Li, G}, title = {A scientometric review of the research on the impacts of climate change on water quality during 1998-2018.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08176-7}, pmid = {32152856}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {No.51178303//the National Science Foundation of China/ ; TD13-5021//the Training Program for Innovative Research Team in Tianjin Institutions of Higher Education/ ; No//the Tianjin Key Laboratory of Hazardous Waste Safety Disposal and Recycling Technology/ ; }, abstract = {Research on the impacts of climate change on water quality helps to better formulate water quality strategies under the challenge of an uncertain future, which is critical for human survival and development. As a result, in recent years, there has been growing attention given to research in the field, and the attention has led to an increasing number of publications, which is why a systematic literature review on this topic has been proposed in the current paper. This study reviewed 2998 related articles extracted from the Science Citation Index-Expanded (SCI-E) database from 1998 to 2018 to analyse and visualize historical trend evolution, current research hotspots, and promising ideas for future research by combining a traditional literature review, bibliometric analysis, and scientific knowledge mapping. The results revealed that the impacts of climate change on water quality mainly included the aggravation of eutrophication, changes in the flow, hydrological and thermal conditions, and the destruction of ecosystems and biodiversity. Further exploration of the influence mechanism of climate change on cyanobacteria is an emerging research topic. Additionally, the water quality conditions of shallow lakes and drinking water are promising future research objects. In the context of climate change, the general rules of water quality management and the scientific planning of land use are of great significance and need to be further studied. This study provides a practical and valuable reference for researchers to help with the selection of future research topics, which may contribute to further development in this field.}, }
@article {pmid32152593, year = {2020}, author = {Phillips, N}, title = {Climate change made Australia's devastating fire season 30% more likely.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00627-y}, pmid = {32152593}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32152412, year = {2020}, author = {Schlichtholz, P}, title = {Author Correction: Subsurface ocean flywheel of coupled climate variability in the Barents Sea hotspot of global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4732}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-61544-8}, pmid = {32152412}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32152271, year = {2020}, author = {McDonough, LK and Santos, IR and Andersen, MS and O'Carroll, DM and Rutlidge, H and Meredith, K and Oudone, P and Bridgeman, J and Gooddy, DC and Sorensen, JPR and Lapworth, DJ and MacDonald, AM and Ward, J and Baker, A}, title = {Changes in global groundwater organic carbon driven by climate change and urbanization.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1279}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-14946-1}, pmid = {32152271}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate change and urbanization can increase pressures on groundwater resources, but little is known about how groundwater quality will change. Here, we use a global synthesis (n = 9,404) to reveal the drivers of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is an important component of water chemistry and substrate for microorganisms that control biogeochemical reactions. Dissolved inorganic chemistry, local climate and land use explained ~ 31% of observed variability in groundwater DOC, whilst aquifer age explained an additional 16%. We identify a 19% increase in DOC associated with urban land cover. We predict major groundwater DOC increases following changes in precipitation and temperature in key areas relying on groundwater. Climate change and conversion of natural or agricultural areas to urban areas will decrease groundwater quality and increase water treatment costs, compounding existing constraints on groundwater resources.}, }
@article {pmid32150950, year = {2020}, author = {Canelón, SP and Boland, MR}, title = {A Systematic Literature Review of Factors Affecting the Timing of Menarche: The Potential for Climate Change to Impact Women's Health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph17051703}, pmid = {32150950}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {NA//University of Pennsylvania/ ; }, abstract = {Menarche is the first occurrence of a woman's menstruation, an event that symbolizes reproductive capacity and the transition from childhood into womanhood. The global average age for menarche is 12 years and this has been declining in recent years. Many factors that affect the timing menarche in girls could be affected by climate change. A systematic literature review was performed regarding the timing of menarche and four publication databases were interrogated: EMBASE, SCOPUS, PubMed, and Cochrane Reviews. Themes were identified from 112 articles and related to environmental causes of perturbations in menarche (either early or late), disease causes and consequences of perturbations, and social causes and consequences. Research from climatology was incorporated to describe how climate change events, including increased hurricanes, avalanches/mudslides/landslides, and extreme weather events could alter the age of menarche by disrupting food availability or via increased toxin/pollutant release. Overall, our review revealed that these perturbations in the timing of menarche are likely to increase the disease burden for women in four key areas: mental health, fertility-related conditions, cardiovascular disease, and bone health. In summary, the climate does have the potential to impact women's health through perturbation in the timing of menarche and this, in turn, will affect women's risk of disease in future.}, }
@article {pmid32149170, year = {2020}, author = {Oyekale, AS}, title = {Dataset on cocoa production and climate change adaptation strategies in Ahafo Ano North District, Ghana.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {105275}, doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2020.105275}, pmid = {32149170}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {Sustainable cocoa production is susceptible to changes in some climatic parameters. This survey was carried out to understand the perceptions of cocoa farmers on climate change, its impacts on cocoa production and their adaptation methods. Stratified sampling method was used to select the farmers and data were collected with structured questionnaires. Stratification of the district was done based on existing seven administrative divisional offices which comprise of six area councils and one town council. Cocoa farmers were sampled within each stratum with sample size proportional to estimated number of farmers. During the survey, 378 cocoa farmers were interviewed from Abu-Bone (60), Anyinasuso (65), Biakoye (42), Kwasu-Abu (89), Subriso (35), Suponso (20) and Tepa (67). The dataset had been shared with this article and it is valuable for understanding the perceptions of cocoa farmers on climate change, cocoa production efficiency and determinants of climate change adaptation choices.}, }
@article {pmid32148315, year = {2020}, author = {Xie, Y and Wang, H and Lei, X}, title = {Simulation of climate change and thinning effects on productivity of Larix olgensis plantations in northeast China using 3-PGmix model.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {261}, number = {}, pages = {110249}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110249}, pmid = {32148315}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Understanding the effects of thinning on forest productivity under climate change is vital to adaptive forest management. In the present study, the 3-PGmix model was applied to simulate the thinning effects on productivity of Larix olgensis plantations under climate change using 164 sample plots collected from the 6th, 7th and 8th National Forest Inventories in Jilin Province, northeast China. Climate scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were adopted from 2011 to 2100 with corresponding reference years (1981-2010). We simulated four cutting intensities: no-thinning, NT; low intensity thinning with 10% stem removal, LT; moderate thinning with 20% stem removal, MT and heavy thinning with 30% stem removal, HT for three times with 5- and 10-year thinning intervals. The results indicated that the mean net primary productivity (NPP) during the simulated 90 years was increased under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The LT and MT had positive but HT had negative effects on the mean NPP for the same climate scenario. Increased thinning intensity facilitated the positive effects of climate change on NPP but without a significant interaction effect. During the simulation, LT had the highest NPP value and HT had the biggest NPP increase under future climate change. We also discussed the management of larch plantations under climate change and advocated low intensity thinning with 10-year thinning interval to gain maximum NPP for mitigating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32144247, year = {2020}, author = {Maberly, SC and O'Donnell, RA and Woolway, RI and Cutler, MEJ and Gong, M and Jones, ID and Merchant, CJ and Miller, CA and Politi, E and Scott, EM and Thackeray, SJ and Tyler, AN}, title = {Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1232}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15108-z}, pmid = {32144247}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {221181/09/I-OL//European Space Agency (ESA)/ ; }, abstract = {Water temperature is critical for the ecology of lakes. However, the ability to predict its spatial and seasonal variation is constrained by the lack of a thermal classification system. Here we define lake thermal regions using objective analysis of seasonal surface temperature dynamics from satellite observations. Nine lake thermal regions are identified that mapped robustly and largely contiguously globally, even for small lakes. The regions differed from other global patterns, and so provide unique information. Using a lake model forced by 21st century climate projections, we found that 12%, 27% and 66% of lakes will change to a lower latitude thermal region by 2080-2099 for low, medium and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5) respectively. Under the worst-case scenario, a 79% reduction in the number of lakes in the northernmost thermal region is projected. This thermal region framework can facilitate the global scaling of lake-research.}, }
@article {pmid32134926, year = {2020}, author = {Free, CM and Mangin, T and Molinos, JG and Ojea, E and Burden, M and Costello, C and Gaines, SD}, title = {Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {e0224347}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0224347}, pmid = {32134926}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Although climate change is altering the productivity and distribution of marine fisheries, climate-adaptive fisheries management could mitigate many of the negative impacts on human society. We forecast global fisheries biomass, catch, and profits to 2100 under three climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and five levels of management reform to (1) determine the impact of climate change on national fisheries and (2) quantify the national-scale benefits of implementing climate-adaptive fisheries reforms. Management reforms accounting for shifting productivity and shifting distributions would yield higher catch and profits in the future relative to today for 60-65% of countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but for only 35% of countries under the most severe scenario. Furthermore, these management reforms would yield higher cumulative catch and profits than business-as-usual management for nearly all countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but would yield lower cumulative catch for 40% of countries under the most severe scenario. Fortunately, perfect fisheries management is not necessary to achieve these benefits: transboundary cooperation with 5-year intervals between adaptive interventions would result in comparable outcomes. However, the ability for realistic management reforms to offset the negative impacts of climate change is bounded by changes in underlying biological productivity. Although realistic reforms could generate higher catch and profits for 23-50% of countries experiencing reductions in productivity, the remaining countries would need to develop, expand, and reform aquaculture and other food production sectors to offset losses in capture fisheries. Still, climate-adaptive management is more profitable than business-as-usual management in all countries and we provide guidance on implementing-and achieving the benefits of-climate-adaptive fisheries reform along a gradient of scientific, management, and enforcement capacities.}, }
@article {pmid32133399, year = {2020}, author = {Praetorius, SK and Condron, A and Mix, AC and Walczak, MH and McKay, JL and Du, J}, title = {The role of Northeast Pacific meltwater events in deglacial climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {6}, number = {9}, pages = {eaay2915}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aay2915}, pmid = {32133399}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Columbia River megafloods occurred repeatedly during the last deglaciation, but the impacts of this fresh water on Pacific hydrography are largely unknown. To reconstruct changes in ocean circulation during this period, we used a numerical model to simulate the flow trajectory of Columbia River megafloods and compiled records of sea surface temperature, paleo-salinity, and deep-water radiocarbon from marine sediment cores in the Northeast Pacific. The North Pacific sea surface cooled and freshened during the early deglacial (19.0-16.5 ka) and Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka) intervals, coincident with the appearance of subsurface water masses depleted in radiocarbon relative to the sea surface. We infer that Pacific meltwater fluxes contributed to net Northern Hemisphere cooling prior to North Atlantic Heinrich Events, and again during the Younger Dryas stadial. Abrupt warming in the Northeast Pacific similarly contributed to hemispheric warming during the Bølling and Holocene transitions. These findings underscore the importance of changes in North Pacific freshwater fluxes and circulation in deglacial climate events.}, }
@article {pmid32133022, year = {2020}, author = {Vieira, J and Carvalho, A and Campelo, F}, title = {Tree Growth Under Climate Change: Evidence From Xylogenesis Timings and Kinetics.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {90}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00090}, pmid = {32133022}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Tree growth is one of the most studied aspects of tree biology, particularly secondary growth. In the Mediterranean region, cambial activity is mostly determined by water availability. Climatic projections for the Mediterranean region predict more frequent and intense droughts, and longer periods without precipitation. To investigate tree growth under the predicted scenarios of climate change, a water manipulation experiment was conducted in a maritime pine stand (Pinus pinaster Aiton). In 2017, fifteen trees were divided into three groups: control, rain exclusion, and irrigation. Drought conditions were simulated by installing a continuous plastic sheet on the forest floor from March to September. Trees under irrigation treatment were watered twice a week in September. Cambial activity and xylem formation was monitored every 10 days from February 2017 until March 2018. Cell production was maximal around the spring equinox in all treatments. Trees under rain exclusion decreased cell production rates, xylogenesis duration, and latewood cell wall thickness. The extra irrigation in September did not produce noticeable differences in xylogenesis compared to trees in the control treatment. The synchronization of maximum cambial division rates around the vernal equinox (spring) could allow Mediterranean trees to mitigate the impact of summer drought. With the predicted increase in drought intensity and frequency, lower tree productivity, carbon sequestration, and wood biomass are expected.}, }
@article {pmid32132001, year = {2020}, author = {Ramsay, G and Ramsay, W and Ramsay, R}, title = {Tackling climate change: &quot;plant good, meat bad&quot; is overly simplistic.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {368}, number = {}, pages = {m805}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.m805}, pmid = {32132001}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid32131471, year = {2020}, author = {Grossi, G and Vitali, A and Lacetera, N and Danieli, PP and Bernabucci, U and Nardone, A}, title = {Carbon Footprint of Mediterranean Pasture-Based Native Beef: Effects of Agronomic Practices and Pasture Management under Different Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani10030415}, pmid = {32131471}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {A better understanding of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is needed when assessing the carbon footprint (CFP) of livestock products and the effectiveness of possible agriculture mitigation strategies. This study aimed (i) to perform a cradle-to-gate CFP of pasture-based beef cattle in a Mediterranean agropastoral system (ii) and to assess the effects on the CFP of alternative tillage, fertilizing, and grazing practices under current (NCC) and future climate change (CC) scenarios. Minimum (Mt) and no-tillage (Nt) practices were compared to current tillage (Ct); a 50% increase (Hf) and decrease (Lf) in fertilization was evaluated against the current (Cf) rate; and rotational grazing (Rg) was evaluated versus the current continuous grazing (Cg) system. The denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model was run using NCC as well as representative concentration pathways to investigate the effects of farm management practices coupled with future CC scenarios on SOC dynamics, N2O fluxes, and crop yield. Within NCC and CtCf, an emission intensity of 26.9 ± 0.7 kg CO2eq per kg live body weight was estimated. Compared to Ct, the adoption of Mt and Nt reduced the CFP by 20% and 35%, respectively, while NtHf reduced it by 40%. Conservation tillage practices were thus shown to be effective in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid32129873, year = {2020}, author = {Goodwin, MM and Shattell, M}, title = {Why Nurses Should Care About Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of psychosocial nursing and mental health services}, volume = {58}, number = {3}, pages = {3-4}, doi = {10.3928/02793695-20200217-01}, pmid = {32129873}, issn = {0279-3695}, }
@article {pmid32129019, year = {2020}, author = {Ngatchou, N and Martin, PY and Fakhouri, F and Pruijm, M}, title = {[The kidneys : possible victims of global warming ?].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {16}, number = {683}, pages = {412-416}, pmid = {32129019}, issn = {1660-9379}, abstract = {Over the last decades, an increasing number of cases of chronic and end-stage kidney disease has been observed in Central America and Asia. This kidney disease mainly affects young farmers without classic renal risk factors. The clinical presentation includes a progressive decrease of the glomerular filtration rate, minimal proteinuria and the presence of tubulo-interstitial nephritis at renal biopsy. A close link with global warming is suspected for this disease, called (according to its location) meso-american nephropathy, Sri Lanka nephropathy or chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology. Others have suggested that intake of water contaminated with pesticides may be responsible. This article provides an overview of this new kidney disease. Measures to prevent acute kidney injury during heat waves in Switzerland are also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid32128147, year = {2020}, author = {Murphy, GEP and Romanuk, TN and Worm, B}, title = {Cascading effects of climate change on plankton community structure.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {2170-2181}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.6055}, pmid = {32128147}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Plankton communities account for at least half of global primary production and play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Warming and acidification may alter the interaction chains in these communities from the bottom and top of the food web. Yet, the relative importance of these potentially complex interactions has not yet been quantified. Here, we examine the isolated and combined effects of warming, acidification, and reductions in phytoplankton and predator abundances in a series of factorial experiments. We find that warming directly impacts the top of the food web, but that the intermediate trophic groups are more strongly influenced by indirect effects mediated by altered top-down interactions. Direct manipulations of predator and phytoplankton abundance reveal similar strong top-down interactions following top predator decline. A meta-analysis of published experiments further supports the conclusion that warming has stronger direct impacts on the top and bottom of the food web rather than the intermediate trophic groups, with important differences between freshwater and marine plankton communities. Our results reveal that the trophic effect of warming cascading down from the top of the plankton food web is a powerful agent of global change.}, }
@article {pmid32127682, year = {2020}, author = {Marshall, DJ and Pettersen, AK and Bode, M and White, CR}, title = {Developmental cost theory predicts thermal environment and vulnerability to global warming.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {406-411}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-020-1114-9}, pmid = {32127682}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {Metazoans must develop from zygotes to feeding organisms. In doing so, developing offspring consume up to 60% of the energy provided by their parent. The cost of development depends on two rates: metabolic rate, which determines the rate that energy is used; and developmental rate, which determines the length of the developmental period. Both development and metabolism are highly temperature-dependent such that developmental costs should be sensitive to the local thermal environment. Here, we develop, parameterize and test developmental cost theory, a physiologically explicit theory that reveals that ectotherms have narrow thermal windows in which developmental costs are minimized (Topt). Our developmental cost theory-derived estimates of Topt predict the natural thermal environment of 71 species across seven phyla remarkably well (R2 ~0.83). Developmental cost theory predicts that costs of development are much more sensitive to small changes in temperature than classic measures such as survival. Warming-driven changes to developmental costs are predicted to strongly affect population replenishment and developmental cost theory provides a mechanistic foundation for determining which species are most at risk. Developmental cost theory predicts that tropical aquatic species and most non-nesting terrestrial species are likely to incur the greatest increase in developmental costs from future warming.}, }
@article {pmid32125745, year = {2020}, author = {Capblancq, T and Morin, X and Gueguen, M and Renaud, J and Lobreaux, S and Bazin, E}, title = {Climate associated genetic variation in Fagus sylvatica and potential responses to climate change in the French Alps.}, journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jeb.13610}, pmid = {32125745}, issn = {1420-9101}, abstract = {Local adaptation patterns have been found in many plants and animals, highlighting the genetic heterogeneity of species along their range of distribution. In the next decades, global warming is predicted to induce a change in the selective pressures that drive this adaptive variation, forcing a reshuffling of the underlying adaptive allele distributions. For species with low dispersion capacity and long generation time such as trees, the rapidity of the change could imped the migration of beneficial alleles and lower their capacity to track the changing environment. Identifying the main selective pressures driving the adaptive genetic variation is thus necessary when investigating species capacity to respond to global warming. In this study, we investigate the adaptive landscape of Fagus sylvatica along a gradient of populations in the French Alps. Using a double digest restriction-site associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing approach, we identified 7,000 SNPs from 570 individuals across 36 different sites. A redundancy analysis (RDA)-derived method allowed us to identify several SNPs that were strongly associated with climatic gradients; moreover, we defined the primary selective gradients along the natural populations of F. sylvatica in the Alps. Strong effects of elevation and humidity, which contrast north-western and south-eastern site, were found and were believed to be important drivers of genetic adaptation. Finally, simulations of future genetic landscapes that used these findings allowed identifying populations at risk for F. sylvatica in the Alps, which could be helpful for future management plans.}, }
@article {pmid32123294, year = {2020}, author = {Albouy, C and Delattre, V and Donati, G and Frölicher, TL and Albouy-Boyer, S and Rufino, M and Pellissier, L and Mouillot, D and Leprieur, F}, title = {Author Correction: Global vulnerability of marine mammals to global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4257}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-61227-4}, pmid = {32123294}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32119666, year = {2020}, author = {Xu, Z and Bambrick, H and Frentiu, FD and Devine, G and Yakob, L and Williams, G and Hu, W}, title = {Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {e0008118}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0008118}, pmid = {32119666}, issn = {1935-2735}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: Using five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30th June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, &quot;the future of dengue&quot; refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue.<br><br>RESULTS: Sixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961-1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using &quot;population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue&quot; or &quot;epidemic potential of dengue cases&quot; as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Projecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue.}, }
@article {pmid32118862, year = {2020}, author = {Dzurec, L}, title = {Nursing and Health at the Heart of Climate Change Debates.}, journal = {Rehabilitation nursing : the official journal of the Association of Rehabilitation Nurses}, volume = {45}, number = {2}, pages = {55-56}, doi = {10.1097/RNJ.0000000000000250}, pmid = {32118862}, issn = {2048-7940}, }
@article {pmid32118121, year = {2019}, author = {Jarmul, S and Liew, Z and Haines, A and Scheelbeek, P}, title = {Climate change mitigation in food systems: the environmental and health impacts of shifting towards sustainable diets, a systematic review protocol.}, journal = {Wellcome open research}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {205}, doi = {10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15618.1}, pmid = {32118121}, issn = {2398-502X}, abstract = {Food systems contribute greatly to global climate change due to their substantial contributions to greenhouse gas emissions, water use, and resource allocation. In addition, current food systems fail to deliver healthy and sustainable foods for all, with obesity as well as undernourishment remaining a pertinent global issue. Mounting pressures such as population growth and urbanisation urge rapid and transformational adaptations in food systems to sustainably feed a growing population. Sustainable diets have been promoted as a potential climate change mitigation strategy, and are characterized by high plant based foods and reduced animal-sourced and processed foods. While the evidence base on the potential health and environmental impacts of shifts towards sustainable diets has been growing rapidly over the past decade, there has been no recent synthesis of the evidence surrounding the health and climate mitigation benefits of sustainable consumption patterns. This systematic review will synthesize the evidence of both empirical and modelling studies assessing the direct health outcomes (such as all-cause mortality and body mass index) as well as environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water use etc.) of shifts towards sustainable diets. Eight literature databases will be searched to identify studies published between 1999-2019 that report both health and environmental outcomes of sustainable diets. Evidence will be mapped and subsequently analysed based on the comparability of results and reported outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid32116128, year = {2020}, author = {Vardy, M}, title = {Relational agility: Visualizing near-real-time Arctic sea ice data as a proxy for climate change.}, journal = {Social studies of science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {306312720906532}, doi = {10.1177/0306312720906532}, pmid = {32116128}, issn = {1460-3659}, abstract = {This ethnographic study at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) follows a group of scientists and communications specialists as they compose visualizations and analyses of near-real-time Arctic sea ice data. Research participants collectively make scientific judgments about near-real-time data in a highly visible public venue with 'relational agility'. They balance multiple phenomena including knowledge of how sceptics attack climate science, reflexivity about the conventions through which sea ice data is gathered, the needs of journalists working in a news cycle paced by Twitter, and the liveliness and vitality of sea ice itself. Relational agility, understood as a way of coordinating the social in relation to this plurality of contingent practices and processes, provides insight into the science and politics of nonlinear climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32114705, year = {2020}, author = {Froelich, BA and Daines, DA}, title = {In Hot Water: Effects of Climate Change on Vibrio-Human Interactions.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1462-2920.14967}, pmid = {32114705}, issn = {1462-2920}, abstract = {Sea level rise and the anthropogenic warming of the world's oceans is not only an environmental tragedy, but these changes also result in a significant threat to public health. Along with coastal flooding and the encroachment of saltwater farther inland comes an increased risk of human interaction with pathogenic Vibrio species, such as Vibrio cholerae, V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus. This minireview examines the current literature for updates on the climatic changes and practices that impact the location and duration of the presence of Vibrio spp., as well as the infection routes, trends and virulence factors of these highly successful pathogens. Finally, an overview of current treatments and methods for the mitigation of both oral and cutaneous exposures are presented. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid32112742, year = {2020}, author = {van Daalen, K and Jung, L and Dhatt, R and Phelan, AL}, title = {Climate change and gender-based health disparities.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {e44-e45}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30001-2}, pmid = {32112742}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid32108854, year = {2020}, author = {Vardoulakis, S and Marks, G and Abramson, MJ}, title = {Lessons Learned from the Australian Bushfires: Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Public Health.}, journal = {JAMA internal medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.0703}, pmid = {32108854}, issn = {2168-6114}, }
@article {pmid32108735, year = {2020}, author = {Smith, JN and van Daalen, KR and Venkatraman, R}, title = {Climate change and its potential impact on menopausal hot flashes: a commentary.}, journal = {Menopause (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/GME.0000000000001521}, pmid = {32108735}, issn = {1530-0374}, abstract = {Climate change is known to impact men and women differently and yet how it will change the health impact of menopause, specifically hot flashes, has not been well researched or understood. Given the duration of symptoms, the high number of women suffering from them, and the associated consequences, any marginal change in incidence due to climate change could result in a very large number of women being affected. Global health systems need to be prepared for this and ensure that gendered issues like menopause do not fall through the cracks as we prepare for our future climate. : Video Summary:http://links.lww.com/MENO/A549.}, }
@article {pmid32108075, year = {2020}, author = {Powell, K}, title = {Tackling climate change by planting trees.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {186}, number = {8}, pages = {256}, doi = {10.1136/vr.m786}, pmid = {32108075}, issn = {2042-7670}, abstract = {The UK needs to step up its tree-planting efforts to make a dent on climate change. Here, Keith Powell suggests that vets could bring clients together to provide the money and land for such projects.}, }
@article {pmid32107638, year = {2020}, author = {Ali, A and Ashraf, MI and Gulzar, S and Akmal, M}, title = {Estimation of forest carbon stocks in temperate and subtropical mountain systems of Pakistan: implications for REDD+ and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {3}, pages = {198}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-8157-x}, pmid = {32107638}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {Forests are important carbon pools as they provide pathway to mitigate climate change. Quantification of forest carbon has gained momentum after Paris Agreement in 2015. This information is a prerequisite for REDD+ implementation and carbon trading. Temperate and subtropical mountain systems of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province host about one third of Pakistan's 4.51 million ha forests. Present study estimated forest carbon stocks in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. The data was collected from 449 sites in different forests across the province using a stratified cluster sampling technique. Total carbon stock in the forests of the province was estimated at 144.71 million tons with an average of 127.66 ± 9.32 t/ha. Aboveground carbon stock was 68.15 million tons accounting for 48% of the total forest carbon stock of the province. Further, belowground biomass and litter accounted for 10% and 1% respectively. The mean aboveground carbon stock was 59.98 ± 4.26 t/ha. The highest aboveground carbon stock was found in dry temperate forests (99.41 t/ha) followed by moist temperate (85.04 t/ha). Overall, temperate forests have aboveground carbon stock of 90.52 t/ha. Temperate and subtropical forests of Pakistan with high carbon densities have ample potential for reducing forest sector emissions. Therefore, forests of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province having substantial carbon stocks must be conserved for climate change mitigation. Present study provides a framework for carbon stock assessments in other temperate and subtropical regions of the world.}, }
@article {pmid32107433, year = {2020}, author = {Préau, C and Grandjean, F and Sellier, Y and Gailledrat, M and Bertrand, R and Isselin-Nondedeu, F}, title = {Habitat patches for newts in the face of climate change: local scale assessment combining niche modelling and graph theory.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {3570}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-60479-4}, pmid = {32107433}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2016/0710//Association Nationale de la Recherche et de la Technologie (National Association for Research and Technology)/ ; }, abstract = {Triturus cristatus and Triturus marmoratus are two protected and declining newts occurring in the administrative department of Vienne, in France. They have limited dispersal abilities and rely on the connectivity between habitats and their suitability. In a warming climate, the locations of suitable habitats are expected to change, as is the connectivity. Here, we wondered how climate change might affect shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity of habitat patches, as connectivity is a key element enabling species to realize a potential range shift. We used ecological niche modelling (ENM), combining large-scale climate suitability with local scale, high-resolution habitat features, to identify suitable areas for the two species, under low and high warming scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). We associated it with connectivity assessment through graph theory. The variable 'small ponds' contributed most to land cover-only ENMs for both species. Projections with climate change scenarios revealed a potential impact of warming on suitable habitat patches for newts, especially for T. cristatus. We observed a decrease in connectivity following a decrease in patch suitability. Our results highlight the important areas for newt habitat connectivity within the study area, and define those potentially threatened by climate warming. We provide information for prioritizing sites for acquisition, protection or restoration, and to advise landscape policies. Our framework is a useful and easily reproducible way to combine global climate requirements of the species with detailed information on species habitats and occurrence when available.}, }
@article {pmid32106456, year = {2020}, author = {Smith, WL and Weisz, E and Knuteson, R and Revercomb, H and Feldman, D}, title = {Retrieving Decadal Climate Change from Satellite Radiance Observations-A 100-year CO2 Doubling OSSE Demonstration.}, journal = {Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/s20051247}, pmid = {32106456}, issn = {1424-8220}, abstract = {Preparing for climate change depends on the observation and prediction of decadal trends of the environmental variables, which have a direct impact on the sustainability of resources affecting the quality of life on our planet. The NASA Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission is proposed to provide climate quality benchmark spectral radiance observations for the purpose of determining the decadal trends of climate variables, and validating and improving the long-range climate model forecasts needed to prepare for the changing climate of the Earth. The CLARREO will serve as an in-orbit, absolute, radiometric standard for the cross-calibration of hyperspectral radiance spectra observed by the international system of polar operational satellite sounding sensors. Here, we demonstrate that the resulting accurately cross-calibrated polar satellite global infrared spectral radiance trends (e.g., from the Metop IASI instrument considered here) can be interpreted in terms of temperature and water vapor profile trends. This demonstration is performed using atmospheric state data generated for a 100-year period from 2000-2099, produced by a numerical climate model prediction that was forced by the doubling of the global average atmospheric CO2 over the 100-year period. The vertical profiles and spatial distribution of temperature decadal trends were successfully diagnosed by applying a linear regression profile retrieval algorithm to the simulated hyperspectral radiance spectra for the 100-year period. These results indicate that it is possible to detect decadal trends in atmospheric climate variables from high accuracy all-sky satellite infrared radiance spectra using the linear regression retrieval technique.}, }
@article {pmid32102967, year = {2019}, author = {May, K and Noel, D}, title = {School Nurses and Climate Change.}, journal = {Annual review of nursing research}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {275-286}, doi = {10.1891/0739-6686.38.275}, pmid = {32102967}, issn = {0739-6686}, abstract = {Climate change is a serious threat to human health. Nurses recognize vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected by the consequences from climate change, especially the elderly, pregnant women, and children. Children with asthma and chronic health conditions are at the greatest risk for negative health outcomes and are the most important reason for climate advocacy. This descriptive correlational study seeks to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors of school nurses related to the health impacts of climate change. School nurses are in a unique position to address the health impacts of climate change and become fierce advocates of climate justice because of population they serve. School-age and adolescent students are particularly vulnerable to the consequences climate change, which include poor air quality, increasing temperatures, and increasing pollen counts. School nurses were invited to participate in the study via email and provided information about the Nurses Climate Change Challenge. It was the goal of the study to assess these domains in school nurses' and later develop continuing education to support the care and advocacy of students. The results suggest more continuing education on climate change and climate conscious care is needed for school nurses. The current challenge is not only to be more prepared to treat a greater number of illnesses induced by climate change, it is also to maintain expertise and adapt to a changing environment. Nurses must address the impact of climate change on a local level by making changes in practice and engaging in research so that they are prepared with the knowledge, and skills to offer expertise in environmental health and the care of school-age populations.}, }
@article {pmid32102960, year = {2019}, author = {Nicholas, PK and Breakey, S and Tagliareni, E and Tuck, I and Neal-Boylan, L and Ladd, E and Corless, IB and Reynolds, RY and Simmonds, K and Lussier-Duynstee, P}, title = {Advancing a School of Nursing Center for Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Health.}, journal = {Annual review of nursing research}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {145-158}, doi = {10.1891/0739-6686.38.145}, pmid = {32102960}, issn = {0739-6686}, abstract = {This chapter addresses the development and advancement of the Center for Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Health (CCCCJH) in the School of Nursing at the MGH Institute of Health Professions, the first nurse-led center emerged from the overwhelming evidence of climate change and its associated deleterious health consequences. The Center steering committee developed a mission, vision, and core values as well as a logo to guide the first year of initiatives and galvanize the efforts for the future. Workshop and symposium development, implementation, and evaluation are discussed. Future directions and the importance of educational initiatives aimed at expanding nursing and interprofessional knowledge of the intersection of climate and health are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid32102959, year = {2019}, author = {Eide, P and Odom-Maryon, T}, title = {Environmental and Climate Change Initiatives in Nursing Education.}, journal = {Annual review of nursing research}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {131-144}, doi = {10.1891/0739-6686.38.131}, pmid = {32102959}, issn = {0739-6686}, abstract = {Climate change has been labeled the greatest threat to public health and to global health in the 21st century. Addressing climate change has also been reframed as the greatest opportunity for global health in the 21st century, providing a more proactive lens through which to plan and implement actions. Significant climate change impacts to human health are numerous and mounting, including the direct effects of heatwaves, thermal stress and changed frequency or intensity of other extreme weather events. Climate change has been termed a complex public health issue affecting all areas of nursing practice dealing with individuals, families, communities, and the national health arena, and is therefore deserving of inclusion into nursing curricula throughout the entirety of prelicensure coursework. Nursing education programs that include this content will better prepare future nurses to face projected environmental challenges to human health.}, }
@article {pmid32099173, year = {2018}, author = {Butler, CD and Kefford, BJ}, title = {Climate change as a contributor to human conflict.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {555}, number = {7698}, pages = {587}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-03795-0}, pmid = {32099173}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32100390, year = {2020}, author = {Nardell, E and Lederer, P and Mishra, H and Nathavitharana, R and Theron, G}, title = {Cool but dangerous: How climate change is increasing the risk of airborne infections.}, journal = {Indoor air}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {195-197}, doi = {10.1111/ina.12608}, pmid = {32100390}, issn = {1600-0668}, support = {//Harvard Dubai Center for Global Health/ ; 1D43TW009379//NIH/FIC/ ; MRC-RFA-IFSP-01-2013//South African Medical Research Council/ ; SF1401//European Union/ ; //Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University/ ; }, }
@article {pmid32100152, year = {2020}, author = {Cox, AR and Robertson, RJ and Rendell, WB and Bonier, F}, title = {Population decline in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) linked to climate change and inclement weather on the breeding ground.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-020-04618-8}, pmid = {32100152}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {32672//Canadian Foundation for Innovation/ ; }, abstract = {Population decline and the threat of extinction are realities currently facing many species. Yet, in most cases, the detailed demographic data necessary to identify causes of population decline are unavailable. Using 43 years (1975-2017) of data from a box-nesting population of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), we identified reduced survival of offspring as a probable demographic cause of population decline. Poor fledging success was associated with increased predation and poor weather conditions during early nestling development. Low juvenile survival and subsequent recruitment was linked to poor weather conditions during the post-fledging period and may also be linked to conditions on the wintering grounds. Regional weather conditions during critical stages of breeding (early nestling and post-fledging) have become progressively worse over the 43-year study period. None of the other factors linked to offspring survival have similarly deteriorated. Overall, our results suggest tree swallows should be added to the growing list of species challenged by climate change, and that other species of aerial insect specialists may face similar impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32099833, year = {2020}, author = {Pawankar, R and Wang, JY and Wang, IJ and Thien, F and Chang, YS and Latiff, AHA and Fujisawa, T and Zhang, L and Thong, BY and Chatchatee, P and Leung, TF and Kamchaisatian, W and Rengganis, I and Yoon, HJ and Munkhbayarlakh, S and Recto, MT and Neo, AGE and Le Pham, D and Lan, LTT and Davies, JM and Oh, JW}, title = {Asia Pacific Association of Allergy Asthma and Clinical Immunology White Paper 2020 on climate change, air pollution, and biodiversity in Asia-Pacific and impact on allergic diseases.}, journal = {Asia Pacific allergy}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {e11}, doi = {10.5415/apallergy.2020.10.e11}, pmid = {32099833}, issn = {2233-8276}, abstract = {Air pollution, climate change, and reduced biodiversity are major threats to human health with detrimental effects on a variety of chronic noncommunicable diseases in particular respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. The extent of air pollution both outdoor and indoor air pollution and climate change including global warming is increasing-to alarming proportions particularly in the developing world especially rapidly industrializing countries worldwide. In recent years, Asia has experienced rapid economic growth and a deteriorating environment and increase in allergic diseases to epidemic proportions. Air pollutant levels in many Asian countries especially in China and India are substantially higher than are those in developed countries. Moreover, industrial, traffic-related, and household biomass combustion, indoor pollutants from chemicals and tobacco are major sources of air pollutants, with increasing burden on respiratory allergies. Here we highlight the major components of outdoor and indoor air pollutants and their impacts on respiratory allergies associated with asthma and allergic rhinitis in the Asia-Pacific region. With Asia-Pacific comprising more than half of the world's population there is an urgent need to increase public awareness, highlight targets for interventions, public advocacy and a call to action to policy makers to implement policy changes towards reducing air pollution with interventions at a population-based level.}, }
@article {pmid32099519, year = {2020}, author = {Pandakov, PG and Teofilova, TM and Kodzhabashev, ND}, title = {Status of the burbot (Lota lota L.) in the Lower Danube (Bulgaria) - a species threatened by climate change.}, journal = {ZooKeys}, volume = {910}, number = {}, pages = {143-161}, doi = {10.3897/zookeys.910.47866}, pmid = {32099519}, issn = {1313-2989}, abstract = {The study provides data on the catch composition, length-weight relationship, age structure, gender structure, growth, maturation, fecundity, distribution and conservation status of the burbot Lota lota (Linnaeus, 1758) in Bulgaria. During six consecutive winters (2008-2014) a total of 395 burbot specimens were caught. The total length and the weight of the specimens ranged from 16 to 51 cm and 29.8 to 1057 g, respectively. Seven age classes were represented (3- to 9-years-old), with 3-, 4-, and 5-years-old most abundant. The maximal life expectancy was estimated as 12 years. Male-female ratio was 1:1. Maturity happens at the age of four at the earliest, valid for both sexes. One-quarter of the fish, older than 5 years were determined as non-reproducing in the particular year. The absolute fecundity varied between 47 462 and 810 236 eggs for females ranging from 5 to 7 years old and from 25.7 to 41.5 cm in length. A dramatic decrease of burbot population was observed in the last two decades. Warming water temperatures of the Danube, together with fragmentation in its tributaries are considered as the major threats affecting the species. Therefore, the burbot in Bulgaria is classified as Endangered.}, }
@article {pmid32094889, year = {2018}, author = {Bai, X and Dawson, RJ and Ürge-Vorsatz, D and Delgado, GC and Salisu Barau, A and Dhakal, S and Dodman, D and Leonardsen, L and Masson-Delmotte, V and Roberts, DC and Schultz, S}, title = {Six research priorities for cities and climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {555}, number = {7694}, pages = {23-25}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-02409-z}, pmid = {32094889}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32094746, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Don't jump to conclusions about climate change and civil conflict.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {554}, number = {7692}, pages = {275-276}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-01875-9}, pmid = {32094746}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32094600, year = {2018}, author = {Forster, P}, title = {Homing in on a key factor of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {553}, number = {7688}, pages = {288-289}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-00480-0}, pmid = {32094600}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32096898, year = {2020}, author = {Hudson, J and McQuaid, CD and Rius, M}, title = {Contemporary climate change hinders hybrid performance of ecologically dominant marine invertebrates.}, journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jeb.13609}, pmid = {32096898}, issn = {1420-9101}, abstract = {Human activities alter patterns of biodiversity, particularly through species extinctions and range contractions. Two of these activities are human mediated transfer of species and contemporary climate change, and both allow previously isolated genotypes to come into contact and hybridise, potentially altering speciation rates. Hybrids have been shown to survive environmental conditions not tolerated by either parent, suggesting that, under some circumstances, hybrids may be able to expand their ranges and perform well under rapidly changing conditions. However, studies assessing how hybridisation influences contemporary range shifts are scarce. We performed crosses on Pyura herdmani and Pyura stolonifera (Chordata, Tunicata), two closely related marine invertebrate species that are ecologically dominant and can hybridise. These sister species live in sympatry along the coasts of southern Africa, but one has a disjunct distribution that includes northern hemisphere sites. We experimentally assessed the performance of hybrid and parental crosses using different temperature regimes, including temperatures predicted under future climate change scenarios. We found that hybrids showed lower success than parental crosses at the experimental temperatures, suggesting that hybrids are unlikely to expand their ranges to new environments. In turn, we found that the more widespread species performed better at a wide array of temperatures, indicating that this parental species may cope better with future conditions. This study illustrates how offspring fitness may provide key insights to predict range expansions, and how contemporary climate change may mediate both the ability of hybrids to expand their ranges and the occurrence of speciation as a result of hybridisation.}, }
@article {pmid32094382, year = {2020}, author = {P J, V and Ravichandran, M and Subeesh, MP and Chatterjee, S and M, N}, title = {Global warming hiatus contributed weakening of the Mascarene High in the Southern Indian Ocean.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {3255}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-59964-7}, pmid = {32094382}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Mascarene High (MH) is a semi-permanent subtropical high-pressure zone in the South Indian Ocean. Apart from its large influence on African and Australian weather patterns, it also helps in driving the inter-hemispheric circulation between the Indian Ocean in the south and subcontinental landmass in the north. Using observations and reanalysis products, this study for the first time investigates recent warming trend observed in the MH region during the Global Warming Hiatus (GWH) period (1998-2016). Significant positive trends are observed in sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and oceanic heat content (OHC) during this period in the MH region. Mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals the dominant role of heat advection in the observed warming trend. During the GWH period, stronger zonal currents advect the warm waters from the Western Pacific (WP) towards the MH region via the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). This warming in the MH reduces the sea level pressure therein and establishes a weak pressure gradient between the MH and the northern hemisphere landmass. This in-turn weakens the cross-equatorial winds in the western Indian Ocean.}, }
@article {pmid32094170, year = {2020}, author = {Han, Y and An, Z and Marlon, JR and Bradley, RS and Zhan, C and Arimoto, R and Sun, Y and Zhou, W and Wu, F and Wang, Q and Burr, GS and Cao, J}, title = {Asian inland wildfires driven by glacial-interglacial climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1822035117}, pmid = {32094170}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Wildfire can influence climate directly and indirectly, but little is known about the relationships between wildfire and climate during the Quaternary, especially how wildfire patterns varied over glacial-interglacial cycles. Here, we present a high-resolution soot record from the Chinese Loess Plateau; this is a record of large-scale, high-intensity fires over the past 2.6 My. We observed a unique and distinct glacial-interglacial cyclicity of soot over the entire Quaternary Period synchronous with marine δ18O and dust records, which suggests that ice-volume-modulated aridity controlled wildfire occurrences, soot production, and dust fluxes in central Asia. The high-intensity fires were also found to be anticorrelated with global atmospheric CO2 records over the past eight glacial-interglacial cycles, implying a possible connection between the fires, dust, and climate mediated through the iron cycle. The significance of this hypothetical connection remains to be determined, but the relationships revealed in this study hint at the potential importance of wildfire for the global climate system.}, }
@article {pmid32093488, year = {2020}, author = {Diadin, D and Vystavna, Y}, title = {Long-term meteorological data and isotopic composition in precipitation, surface water and groundwater revealed hydrologic sensitivity to climate change in East Ukraine.}, journal = {Isotopes in environmental and health studies}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-13}, doi = {10.1080/10256016.2020.1732369}, pmid = {32093488}, issn = {1477-2639}, abstract = {Our study focused on the incorporation of stable isotope ratios in water in climatic and hydrological observations to understand local hydroclimatic processes and determine basic hydrological sensitivity to climate change in East Ukraine. Long-term meteorological data from two stations at Kharkiv and Izyum showed that air temperature was significantly increased only for the cold period (November-April), while precipitation amount increased during all seasons. Applying two-component mixing model with stable isotope ratios in water, we determined that surface water in both regions was dominantly recharged by the cold precipitation. The highest share of cold precipitation contribution (∼79 %) was found in the river with the shortest water transit time. The isotopic signature of groundwater also indicated that water resources were mainly recharged during the cold period. Our findings reveal that basic hydrological sensitivity of the transboundary (Ukraine/Russian Federation) Seversky Donets River basin relates to hydroclimate changes mainly observed in November-April. We suggest that climate changes can influence surface water and groundwater but also the overall regional water availability that is highly dependent on the cold precipitation in these regions.}, }
@article {pmid32092873, year = {2020}, author = {Paramsothy, M}, title = {Alleviating Climate Change and Pollution with Nanomaterials.}, journal = {Nanomaterials (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/nano10020358}, pmid = {32092873}, issn = {2079-4991}, abstract = {Nanoparticles can be utilized to extract carbon from air, dyes from water and sludge from waste, and are gradually emerging as useful for tackling threats to our planet's health [...].}, }
@article {pmid32090795, year = {2020}, author = {Adedeji, AR and Zaini, F and Mathew, S and Dagar, L and Petra, MI and De Silva, LC}, title = {Sustainable energy towards air pollution and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {260}, number = {}, pages = {109978}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109978}, pmid = {32090795}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This is an evidence from a high-income economy in Southeast Asia and a support for scientific planning of the energy sector in ensuring air pollution and climate change mitigation. A comparative analysis of the energy options for electricity generation in the nation was made considering availability, cost and greenhouse gases emission - CO2, N2O and CH4, using a two-stage method comprising multi-objective optimization and TOPSIS. The renewable (RE) and non-renewable energy (NRE) options available were assessed through the lifecycle approach to determine the lifecycle greenhouse gas emission (LCGHG) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) per MWh of electricity. Considering historical electricity consumption, annual GDP and population growth from 1965, energy consumption for the year 2035 was forecasted using support vector machine regressor in Weka. Future plans in energy diversification pathways were examined through various scenario multi-objective optimizations with a constraint on resource availability and energy target using genetic algorithm in MATLAB. The outputs were ranked using TOPSIS method. Results showed that greenhouse gases emission could be reduced by 10.3 percent compared to business as usual scenario while the energy mix could attain 10 percent renewable energy in the grid at a relatively lower generation cost.}, }
@article {pmid32087819, year = {2020}, author = {Friel, S}, title = {Climate change and the people's health: the need to exit the consumptagenic system.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30257-9}, pmid = {32087819}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid32046614, year = {2020}, author = {Huber, I and Potapova, K and Ammosova, E and Beyer, W and Blagodatskiy, S and Desyatkin, R and Hoelzle, LE and Ignateva, M and Kokolova, L and Lemke, S and Neustroev, M and Nyukkanov, A and Protodyakonova, G and Reshetnikov, A and Romig, T and Shadrin, V and Samoilova, I and Semenov, S and Stepanov, K and Tarabukina, N and Vinokurova, L and Zakharova, R and Nifontov, K}, title = {Symposium report: emerging threats for human health - impact of socioeconomic and climate change on zooanthroponosis in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russia.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {79}, number = {1}, pages = {1715698}, doi = {10.1080/22423982.2020.1715698}, pmid = {32046614}, issn = {2242-3982}, abstract = {Population growth, socio-cultural and economic changes as well as technological progress have an immediate impact on the environment and human health in particular. Our steadily rising needs of resources increase the pressure on the environment and narrow down untainted habitats for plants and wild animals. Balance and resilience of ecosystems are further threatened by climate change, as temperature and seasonal shifts increase the pressure for all species to find successful survival strategies. Arctic and subarctic regions are especially vulnerable to climate change, as thawing of permafrost significantly transforms soil structures, vegetation and habitats. With rising temperature, the risk of zoonotic diseases in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) has also increased. As vegetation periods prolong and habitats broaden, zoonotic pathogens and their vectors find more favourable living conditions. Moreover, permafrost degradation may expose historic burial grounds and allow for reviving the vectors of deadly infections from the past. To assess the current state of knowledge and emerging risks in the light of the &quot;One Health&quot; concept, a German-Russian Symposium took place on 13 August 2018 in Yakutsk, Russian Federation. This symposium report presents the main findings generated from presentations and discussions.}, }
@article {pmid32080594, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {How the early bird combats climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {551}, number = {7681}, pages = {417}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-05998-3}, pmid = {32080594}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32076188, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Coral predators get a boost from climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {546}, number = {7658}, pages = {330}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-00760-1}, pmid = {32076188}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32076155, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Global warming could shift rainfall patterns.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {546}, number = {7657}, pages = {189}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-00638-2}, pmid = {32076155}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32076180, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Global warming 'hiatus' claims are overblown.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {545}, number = {7652}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-00886-2}, pmid = {32076180}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32076213, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Marine organism risks losing its skeleton thanks to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {544}, number = {7651}, pages = {397}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-00647-1}, pmid = {32076213}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32085475, year = {2020}, author = {Krasna, H and Czabanowska, K and Jiang, S and Khadka, S and Morita, H and Kornfeld, J and Shaman, J}, title = {The Future of Careers at the Intersection of Climate Change and Public Health: What Can Job Postings and an Employer Survey Tell Us?.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph17041310}, pmid = {32085475}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate change is acknowledged to be a major risk to public health. Skills and competencies related to climate change are becoming a part of the curriculum at schools of public health and are now a competency required by schools in Europe and Australia. However, it is unclear whether graduates of public health programs focusing on climate change are in demand in the current job market. The authors analyzed current job postings, 16 years worth of job postings on a public health job board, and survey responses from prospective employers. The current job market appears small but there is evidence from job postings that it may be growing, and 91.7% of survey respondents believe the need for public health professionals with training in climate change may grow in the next 5-10 years. Current employers value skills/competencies such as the knowledge of climate mitigation/adaptation, climate-health justice, direct/indirect and downstream effects of climate on health, health impact assessment, risk assessment, pollution-health consequences and causes, Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping, communication/writing, finance/economics, policy analysis, systems thinking, and interdisciplinary understanding. Ensuring that competencies align with current and future needs is a key aspect of curriculum development. At the same time, we recognize that while we attempt to predict future workforce needs with historical data or surveys, the disruptive reality created by climate change cannot be modeled from prior trends, and we must therefore adopt new paradigms of education for the emerging future.}, }
@article {pmid32081261, year = {2020}, author = {Leisner, CP}, title = {Review: Climate change impacts on food security- focus on perennial cropping systems and nutritional value.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {293}, number = {}, pages = {110412}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2020.110412}, pmid = {32081261}, issn = {1873-2259}, abstract = {Anthropogenic increases in fossil fuel emissions have been a primary driver of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO2]) and other greenhouse gases resulting in warmer temperatures, alterations in precipitation patterns, and increased occurrence of extreme weather events in terrestrial areas across the globe. In agricultural growing regions, alterations in climate can challenge plant productivity in ways that impact the ability of the world to sustain adequate food production for a growing and increasingly affluent population with shifting access to affordable and nutritious food. While the knowledge gap that exists regarding potential climate change impacts is large across agriculture, it is especially large in specialty cropping systems. This includes fruit and vegetable crops, and perennial cropping systems which also contribute (along with row crops) to our global diet. In order to obtain a comprehensive view of the true impact of climate change on our global food supply, we must expand our narrow focus from improving yield and plant productivity to include the impact of climate change on the nutritional value of these crops. In order to address these questions, we need a multi-faceted approach that integrates physiology and genomics tools and conducts comprehensive experiments under realistic depictions of future projected climate. This review describes gaps in our knowledge in relation to these responses, and future questions and actions that are needed to develop a sustainable future food supply in light of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32080749, year = {2020}, author = {Khan, T and Conway, TM}, title = {Vulnerability of Common Urban Forest Species to Projected Climate Change and Practitioners Perceptions and Responses.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01270-z}, pmid = {32080749}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {While urban forests are often identified as part of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, less attention has been given to vulnerabilities urban trees may have to a changing climate and practitioners' response to those vulnerabilities. Yet, current planting and management decisions will impact how urban forests fare under future climatic conditions. We explore a case study of Mississauga (Ontario, Canada) to examine (1) if common urban forest species are vulnerable to two scenarios of projected climate change, (2) the experiences and responses of urban forestry practitioners to climate change, and (3) whether urban forestry practitioners' experience and practice are aligned with the vulnerability assessment. Vulnerabilities of 27 common species were examined based on 2071-2100 regional climate projections. Interviews were then conducted with practitioners working in the public and private sectors. The results suggest that the majority of examined species will be vulnerable to multiple conditions associated with projected climate. Practitioners all perceive recent changes in climate and extreme weather patterns, but do not prioritize future climate conditions in their species selection decisions. Moreover, they expressed uncertainty about how to make species selection decisions in light of climate change. Given the predicted vulnerabilities, alternative species need to be considered or more management resources (e.g., for watering) will be required to maintain the current composition. However, the lack of focus on future conditions by practitioners raises concerns, while also highlighting the need for more information about appropriate management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32079756, year = {2020}, author = {Dean, JF}, title = {Old methane and modern climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {367}, number = {6480}, pages = {846-848}, doi = {10.1126/science.aba8518}, pmid = {32079756}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid32079330, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, X}, title = {Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph17041278}, pmid = {32079330}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {41877164//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; XDA23100401//Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Heat stress would be intensified under global warming and become a key issue of occupational health for labor force working outdoors. The changes in labor force would affect regional socioeconomic development. So far, changes in labor force due to heat stress are not well documented in China. In this study, heat stress based on wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), which combines the thermal effects on the human body of both temperature and humidity, is projected for the near future (2021-2050) and the end of the century (2071-2099). Changes in labor capacity are then estimated for heavy and light work based on the relationships between labor capacity and the WBGT. Low and high emission scenarios, namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, are considered for the future projections in the hottest two months (July and August) in China. Results suggest that the WBGT would increase by more than 3-5 °C by the end of the century. The labor capacity would decrease by more than 40% for both heavy and light work in considerable areas such as South and East China, where there is a large population and developed economy. This indicates that labor force would reduce significantly due to intensified heat stress. This study calls for special attention to the impact of heat stress on occupational health and the labor force in China in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32078825, year = {2020}, author = {Lee, CH and Lin, SH and Kao, CL and Hong, MY and Huang, PC and Shih, CL and Chuang, CC}, title = {Impact of climate change on disaster events in metropolitan cities -trend of disasters reported by Taiwan national medical response and preparedness system.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {183}, number = {}, pages = {109186}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109186}, pmid = {32078825}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Taiwan is geographically located in a zone that is vulnerable to earthquakes, typhoons, floods, and landslide hazards and has experienced various disasters. Six Regional Emergency Medical Operation Centers (REMOCs) are integrated and administered by the Ministry of Health and Welfare (MOHW) to be responsible for emergency situations during disastrous events, such as the emission of chemical toxicants, traffic accidents, industrial materials containment, and typhoons.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To analyze events reported by the six REMOCs during the 2014 to 2018 for the government policy reference.<br><br>METHODS: Data were collected from injured and death toll reports provided by local designated hospitals in the emergency medical reporting system. Disaster events were categorized into three categories: natural disaster (NDs), disasters associated with technology (DTs), and disasters associated with security/violence/others (DSVOs). The three categories were further subdivided into sub-categories. Variables considered for trend analyses included the number of wounded and deaths, event characteristics, date/time, and triage. The frequency of disaster events among the six REMOCs was compared using the chi-square test. We used the global information system (GIS) to describe the distribution of events in Taiwan metropolitan cities. The α-level was set at 0.05.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 580 events during the study period, the distribution of disaster characteristics in the jurisdictions of the six REMOCs were different. The majority of disaster events were DTs (64.5%), followed by NDs (24.5%) and DSVOs (11.0%). Events for the three disaster categories in the six REMOCs were different (χ2-test, p < 0.001). Furthermore, for the Taipei branch (Northern Taiwan), other NDs, especially heatwaves and cold spells, were most reported in New Taipei City (92.2%) and showed an increasing annual trend; for the Kaohsiung branch (Southern Taiwan), DT events were the most reported, especially in Kaohsiung City; and for the Taichung branch (Central Taiwan), DSVOs were the most reported, especially in Taichung City.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our data revealed that extreme weather precautions reported in the Taipei branch were increasing. Disaster characteristics were different in each metropolitan city. Upgrading the ability to respond to natural disasters is ineluctable.}, }
@article {pmid32078684, year = {2020}, author = {Nachman, G and Skovgård, H}, title = {Modeling the Influence of Ambient Temperature on the Interactions Between the Stable Fly (Diptera: Muscidae) and Its Natural Enemy Spalangia cameroni (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) to Assess Consequences of Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/ee/nvaa008}, pmid = {32078684}, issn = {1938-2936}, abstract = {A simulation model was used to predict how temperature influences biological control of stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans (L.)) by the pupal parasitoid Spalangia cameroni. Temperature, which was either constant or fluctuated due to seasonal variation and/or environmental stochasticity, was modeled as a first order autocorrelation process. The simulations showed that stable flies could tolerate a wider temperature interval than expected from their thermal performance curve (TPC). This was attributed to the fact that immature flies develop in manure, which protects them against low air temperatures. In contrast, the parasitoids were found to have a narrower thermal tolerance range than expected from their TPC. This was attributed to the temperature-dependent functional response of S. cameroni, which was a limiting factor for the parasitoid's development and survival when host densities were low at suboptimal temperatures. The effects of seasonal variation on critical thermal limits were studied by means of thermal performance diagrams (TPDs). Fluctuating temperatures narrowed the thermal tolerance range of both species. At constant temperatures, the simulations showed that the optimal temperature for using S. cameroni in control of stable flies is ~20°C and that the parasitoid can persist in environments with yearly average temperatures between 18 and 29°C. However, if temperature variation was taken into consideration, it changed both the optimal temperature and the temperature interval at which biological control will be possible. This indicates that climate change causing increasing temperatures compounded with greater fluctuations may have serious consequences for biological control of pests.}, }
@article {pmid32078658, year = {2020}, author = {, }, title = {Correction: Coupling environment and physiology to predict effects of climate change on the taxonomic and functional diversity of fish assemblages in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {e0229679}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0229679}, pmid = {32078658}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0225128.].}, }
@article {pmid32078610, year = {2020}, author = {Walker, RK and Pereira-Morales, S and Kerr, R and Schenk, E}, title = {Climate Change Should Be on Every Nursing Research Agenda.}, journal = {Oncology nursing forum}, volume = {47}, number = {2}, pages = {135-144}, doi = {10.1188/20.ONF.135-144}, pmid = {32078610}, issn = {1538-0688}, abstract = {Human-caused climate change is a global emergency, and its harms are predicted to increase exponentially in the coming years, particularly if unsustainable practices continue unmitigated. Adverse effects of climate change on communities affected by or at risk for cancer, such as frail older adults, are already measurable and deadly. If nurse scientists continue to ignore these realities, more people are likely to suffer and die as a result. The purpose of this critical reflection is to discuss the vital necessity of including climate change in the research agenda of the Oncology Nursing Society and all nursing science. Using an approach grounded in critical theory and design justice, the authors provide specific suggestions for the incorporation of scientific considerations and nursing measures related to climate change into oncology nursing science.}, }
@article {pmid32077492, year = {2020}, author = {Rauw, WM and Rydhmer, L and Kyriazakis, I and Øverland, M and Gilbert, H and Dekkers, JCM and Hermesch, S and Bouquet, A and Gómez Izquierdo, E and Louveau, I and Gomez-Raya, L}, title = {Prospects for sustainability of pig production in relation to climate change and novel feed resources.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.10338}, pmid = {32077492}, issn = {1097-0010}, abstract = {Pig production systems provide multiple benefits to humans. However, the global increase in meat consumption has profound consequences for our earth. This perspective describes two alternative scenarios for improving the sustainability of future pig production systems. The first scenario is a high input-high output system based on sustainable intensification, maximizing animal protein production efficiency on a limited land surface while minimizing environmental impacts. The second scenario is a reduced input-reduced output system based on selecting animals that are more robust to climate change and are better adapted to transform low quality feed (local feeds, feedstuff co-products, feed waste) into meat. However, in contrast to the first scenario, the latter scenario results in reduced predicted yields, reduced production efficiency, and possibly increased costs to the consumer. National evaluation of availability of local feed and feedstuff-coproduct alternatives, determination of limits to feed sourced from international markets, available land for crop and livestock production, desired production levels, and willingness to politically enforce policies through subsidies and/or penalties are some of the considerations to combine these two scenarios. Given future novel sustainable alternatives to livestock animal protein, it may become reasonable to move towards an added general premium price on 'protein from livestock animals' to the benefit of promoting higher incomes to farmers while covering the extra costs of, politically enforced, welfare of livestock animals in sustainable production systems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid32076517, year = {2020}, author = {Huang, J and Hao, H}, title = {Effects of climate change and crop planting structure on the abundance of cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {1324-1338}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5986}, pmid = {32076517}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The interactions between plants and insects play an important role in ecosystems. Climate change and cropping patterns can affect herbivorous pest insect dynamics. Understanding the reasons for population fluctuations can help improve integrated pest management strategies. Here, a 25-year dataset on climate, cropping planting structure, and the population dynamics of cotton bollworms (Helicoverpa armigera) from Bachu County, south Xinjiang, China, was analyzed to assess the effects of changes in climate and crop planting structure on the population dynamics of H. armigera. The three generations of H. armigera showed increasing trends in population size with climate warming, especially in the third generation. The relative abundances of the first and second generations decreased, but that of the third generation increased. Rising temperature and precipitation produced different impacts on the development of different generations. The population numbers of H. armigera increased with the increase in the non-Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton-planted area. Asynchrony of abrupt changes existed among climate change, crop flowering dates, and the phenology of H. armigera moths. The asynchronous responses in crop flowering dates and phenology of H. armigera to climate warming would expand in the future. The primary factors affecting the first, second, and third generations of moths were Tmean in June, the last appearance date of the second generation of moths, and the duration of the third generation of moths, respectively. To reduce the harm to crops caused by H. armigera, Bt cotton should be widely planted.}, }
@article {pmid32076508, year = {2020}, author = {Mainali, K and Shrestha, BB and Sharma, RK and Adhikari, A and Gurarie, E and Singer, M and Parmesan, C}, title = {Contrasting responses to climate change at Himalayan treelines revealed by population demographics of two dominant species.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {1209-1222}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5968}, pmid = {32076508}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Alpine treelines are expected to shift upward due to recent climate change. However, interpretation of changes in montane systems has been problematic because effects of climate change are frequently confounded with those of land use changes. The eastern Himalaya, particularly Langtang National Park, Central Nepal, has been relatively undisturbed for centuries and thus presents an opportunity for studying climate change impacts on alpine treeline uncontaminated by potential confounding factors.We studied two dominant species, Abies spectabilis (AS) and Rhododendron campanulatum (RC), above and below the treeline on two mountains. We constructed 13 transects, each spanning up to 400 m in elevation, in which we recorded height and state (dead or alive) of all trees, as well as slope, aspect, canopy density, and measures of anthropogenic and animal disturbance.All size classes of RC plants had lower mortality above treeline than below it, and young RC plants (<2 m tall) were at higher density above treeline than below. AS shows little evidence of a position change from the historic treeline, with a sudden extreme drop in density above treeline compared to below. Recruitment, as measured by size-class distribution, was greater above treeline than below for both species but AS is confined to ~25 m above treeline whereas RC is luxuriantly growing up to 200 m above treeline. Synthesis. Evidence suggests that the elevational limits of RC have shifted upward both because (a) young plants above treeline benefited from facilitation of recruitment by surrounding vegetation, allowing upward expansion of recruitment, and (b) temperature amelioration to mature plants increased adult survival. We predict that the current pure stand of RC growing above treeline will be colonized by AS that will, in turn, outshade and eventually relegate RC to be a minor component of the community, as is the current situation below the treeline.}, }
@article {pmid32071797, year = {2019}, author = {Grossi, G and Goglio, P and Vitali, A and Williams, AG}, title = {Livestock and climate change: impact of livestock on climate and mitigation strategies.}, journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {69-76}, doi = {10.1093/af/vfy034}, pmid = {32071797}, issn = {2160-6064}, }
@article {pmid32073716, year = {2020}, author = {Wolski, P and Lobell, D and Stone, D and Pinto, I and Crespo, O and Johnston, P}, title = {On the role of anthropogenic climate change in the emerging food crisis in Southern Africa in the 2019-2020 growing season.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15047}, pmid = {32073716}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {The failure of early (October-December) rains, amidst a multi-year drought, has raised concerns of a potential emerging food security crisis in parts of southern Africa, with an estimated 45 million people at risk of severe food insecurity (WFP, 2019). Here we evaluate recent climate data to assess the possible role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) in the emerging crisis in this region spanning southern Mozambique, Zimbabwe and central and western Zambia.}, }
@article {pmid32072712, year = {2020}, author = {Cassandro, M}, title = {Animal breeding and climate change, mitigation and adaptation.}, journal = {Journal of animal breeding and genetics = Zeitschrift fur Tierzuchtung und Zuchtungsbiologie}, volume = {137}, number = {2}, pages = {121-122}, doi = {10.1111/jbg.12469}, pmid = {32072712}, issn = {1439-0388}, }
@article {pmid32072310, year = {2020}, author = {Das Sarkar, S and Sarkar, UK and Lianthuamluaia, L and Ghosh, BD and Roy, K and Mishal, P and Das, BK}, title = {Pattern of the state of eutrophication in the floodplain wetlands of eastern India in context of climate change: a comparative evaluation of 27 wetlands.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {3}, pages = {183}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-8114-8}, pmid = {32072310}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {NICRA//Indian Council of Agricultural Research/ ; }, abstract = {The floodplain wetlands in different regional settings vary with time and space in terms of function and geomorphological diversity. In recent decades, these eco-sensitive waterbodies have been exposed to a wide range of anthropogenic threats and climatic changes. Therefore, assessment of these ecological and environmental threats is prerequisite to understand the state of ecosystem and to develop a sustainable management strategy for conservation of wetland biodiversity and fisheries enhancement. This paper discusses the region-specific pattern of trophic state index (TSI) of the 27 floodplain wetlands in West Bengal, India. Carlson TSI and Lamparelli TSI methods were used to determine a better approach based on historical and continuous dataset and to delineate the interrelationship among historical climatic variability for sustainable management of the resources. The study revealed that agro-climatic divisions do not unveil any significant impact on the TSI calculated using Carlson TSI as well as Lamparelli TSI method. The TSI scores for the two methods were significantly different (p < 0.01) for different zones based on wetland habitat types. The TSI scores revealed most of the wetlands to be in mesotrophic state. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that TSI scores were having similar pattern of variation with rainfall and water temperature. The present study also conveys fundamental information on ecological status based on the trophic state, which will aid to develop region-specific strategies for sustainable fisheries enhancement.}, }
@article {pmid32072220, year = {2020}, author = {Wu, J}, title = {Risk and Uncertainty of Losing Suitable Habitat Areas Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study for 109 Gymnosperm Species in China.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01262-z}, pmid = {32072220}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {2012BAC19B06//National Science and Technology Support Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {Taking 109 gymnosperm species in China as a case, the uncertainty and risk of losing habitat areas of gymnosperm species under future climate conditions were investigated via representative concentration pathways climate change scenarios, fuzzy set classifications and Monte Carlo techniques. Under nonrandom climate change scenarios, the richness of 109 species increased in the partial locations of northwestern and northeastern China and declined in the partial locations of eastern and central and southeastern China; the numbers of species that losing <20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80%, and over 80% of their current habitat areas were ~33-49, 36-40, 11-24, 7-9, and 2-8, respectively; ~99-105 species occupied over 80% of their total suitable areas and ~4-9 species occupied 60-80% their total suitable areas. Under random climate change scenarios, the number of species that losing various level of the habitat areas declined with enhancing probability; with a probabilities of over 0.6, the numbers of species that losing <20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80% and over 80% of their current habitat areas were ~19-28, 3-19, 0-3, 1-2, and 9-14, respectively, and the numbers of species that occupying ~20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80%, and over 80% of their total suitable areas were ~9-14, 4-11, 2-6, 1-3, and 34-45, respectively. Approximately 41% of 109 species will face extinction risks from climate change; the losing habitat areas in future climate condition will cause the varying of coniferous forest composition and the losing of ecosystem service related to the species; the uncertainty of losing distribution areas for species should not be ignored.}, }
@article {pmid32071238, year = {2020}, author = {Zappa, G and Ceppi, P and Shepherd, TG}, title = {Time-evolving sea-surface warming patterns modulate the climate change response of subtropical precipitation over land.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1911015117}, pmid = {32071238}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affect precipitation worldwide. The response is commonly described by two timescales linked to different processes: a rapid adjustment to radiative forcing, followed by a slower response to surface warming. However, additional timescales exist in the surface-warming response, tied to the time evolution of the sea-surface-temperature (SST) response. Here, we show that in climate model projections, the rapid adjustment and surface mean warming are insufficient to explain the time evolution of the hydro-climate response in three key Mediterranean-like areas-namely, California, Chile, and the Mediterranean. The time evolution of those responses critically depends on distinct shifts in the regional atmospheric circulation associated with the existence of distinct fast and slow SST warming patterns. As a result, Mediterranean and Chilean drying are in quasiequilibrium with GHG concentrations, meaning that the drying will not continue after GHG concentrations are stabilized, whereas California wetting will largely emerge only after GHG concentrations are stabilized. The rapid adjustment contributes to a reduction in precipitation, but has a limited impact on the balance between precipitation and evaporation. In these Mediterranean-like regions, future hydro-climate-related impacts will be substantially modulated by the time evolution of the pattern of SST warming that is realized in the real world.}, }
@article {pmid32069750, year = {2020}, author = {Linares, C and Díaz, J and Negev, M and Martínez, GS and Debono, R and Paz, S}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the public health of the Mediterranean Basin population - Current situation, projections, preparedness and adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {182}, number = {}, pages = {109107}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.109107}, pmid = {32069750}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {The Mediterranean Basin is undergoing a warming trend with longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns and a reduction in rainfall amounts. In this unique populated region, which is characterized by significant gaps in the socio-economic levels particularly between the North (Europe) and South (Africa), parallel with population growth and migration, increased water demand and forest fires risk - the vulnerability of the Mediterranean population to human health risks increases significantly. Indeed, climatic changes impact the health of the Mediterranean population directly through extreme heat, drought or storms, or indirectly by changes in water availability, food provision and quality, air pollution and other stressors. The main health effects are related to extreme weather events (including extreme temperatures and floods), changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases and changes in environmental and social conditions. The poorer countries, particularly in North Africa and the Levant, are at highest risk. Climate change affects the vulnerable sectors of the region, including an increasingly older population, with a larger percentage of those with chronic diseases, as well as poor people, which are therefore more susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. For those populations, a better surveillance and control systems are especially needed. In view of the climatic projections and the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries, climate change mitigation and adaptation become ever more imperative. It is important that prevention Health Action Plans will be implemented, particularly in those countries that currently have no prevention plans. Most adaptation measures are &quot;win-win situation&quot; from a health perspective, including reducing air pollution or providing shading solutions. Additionally, Mediterranean countries need to enhance cross-border collaboration, as adaptation to many of the health risks requires collaboration across borders and also across the different parts of the basin.}, }
@article {pmid32069704, year = {2020}, author = {Li, Z and Li, Q and Wang, J and Feng, Y and Shao, Q}, title = {Impacts of projected climate change on runoff in upper reach of Heihe River basin using climate elasticity method and GCMs.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {716}, number = {}, pages = {137072}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137072}, pmid = {32069704}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding the impacts of climate change on runoff is of great importance for water resource assessments and adaptation strategy developments especially for the areas where scare and unevenly distributed water are available. Compared to the hydrological modelling method, the climate elasticity method is more flexible with the advantage of using few data in addressing the issue of investigating the effects of climate change on runoff. This study employed Budyko-based climate elasticity method, combined with temperature-based Blaney-Criddle equation, to obtain the elasticities of runoff to two major climate variables, and then applied this methodology to the upper reach of Heihe River basin, China. The runoff elasticity to precipitation in the study area was estimated to be 0.56-0.57, and the elasticity to temperature was -0.017 to -0.018. Precipitation increases showed a positive effect to runoff increases, and temperature increases showed a negative effect. Performances of 18 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were assessed and the best GCMs were selected based on the entropy weighted TOPSIS approach. CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, CCSM4, and CanESM2 were ranked the first three with the best performances in simulating the observed precipitation and temperature over the study area. Climate projections from the above three GCMs showed that precipitation increased by 10% and 12% on average during the two periods of 2021-2050 and 2051-2080, producing 5.6% and 6.7% decreases in the projected long-term runoff compared to those in baseline period (1961-1990). Temperatures were projected to be increased by 2.0 °C and 2.9 °C for the two periods, resulting in the future long-term runoff decreased by nearly 2.0% and 2.9%, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid32069315, year = {2020}, author = {Gottfried, I and Gottfried, T and Lesiński, G and Hebda, G and Ignaczak, M and Wojtaszyn, G and Jurczyszyn, M and Fuszara, M and Fuszara, E and Grzywiński, W and Błachowski, G and Hejduk, J and Jaros, R and Kowalski, M}, title = {Long-term changes in winter abundance of the barbastelle Barbastella barbastellus in Poland and the climate change - Are current monitoring schemes still reliable for cryophilic bat species?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {e0227912}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0227912}, pmid = {32069315}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Warmer winters may lead to changes in the hibernation behaviour of bats, such as the barbastelle Barbastella barbastellus, which prefers to hibernate at low temperatures. The species is also known for its large annual fluctuations in the number of wintering individuals, so inference about population trends should be based on long-term data. Prior to 2005, analyses indicated stable or even increasing barbastelle population in Poland. We analysed the results of 13 winter bat counts (2005-2017) of the species from 15 of the largest hibernacula, and additional site of 47 small bunkers, in Poland. The total number of wintering individuals remained stable during the study period, because the barbastelle is not a long-distance migrant, this likely reflects the national population trend. On the basis of mean winter air temperatures we divided the country into four thermal regions. Analyses of barbastelle abundance in hibernacula in the four regions revealed a 4.8% annual mean increase in numbers in the coldest region, where mean winter temperatures were below -2°C, annual mean declines of 3.3% and 3.1% in two warmer regions of western Poland, but no trend in the region of intermediate mean winter temperatures of between -1°C and -2°C. Overall, there was a significant, but weak, negative correlation between the abundance of hibernating individuals and the mean winter temperature. On the other hand, the number of individuals hibernating in small bunkers increased, even though the site was located in one of the warm regions. The results indicate a warming climate will likely reduce the use of large, well-insulated winter roosts by species that prefer colder conditions-and that this is already happening. For forest-dwelling bats, such as the barbastelle, for which monitoring schemes are primarily based on winter surveys of large hibernacula, estimations of population trends may consequently become less reliable.}, }
@article {pmid32067351, year = {2020}, author = {Lindberg, RT and Collins, S}, title = {Quality-quantity trade-offs drive functional trait evolution in a model microalgal 'climate change winner'.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13478}, pmid = {32067351}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {University Research Fellowship//Royal Society/ ; //Darwin/ ; }, abstract = {Phytoplankton are the unicellular photosynthetic microbes that form the base of aquatic ecosystems, and their responses to global change will impact everything from food web dynamics to global nutrient cycles. Some taxa respond to environmental change by increasing population growth rates in the short-term and are projected to increase in frequency over decades. To gain insight into how these projected 'climate change winners' evolve, we grew populations of microalgae in ameliorated environments for several hundred generations. Most populations evolved to allocate a smaller proportion of carbon to growth while increasing their ability to tolerate and metabolise reactive oxygen species (ROS). This trade-off drives the evolution of traits that underlie the ecological and biogeochemical roles of phytoplankton. This offers evolutionary and a metabolic frameworks for understanding trait evolution in projected 'climate change winners' and suggests that short-term population booms have the potential to be dampened or reversed when environmental amelioration persists.}, }
@article {pmid32065642, year = {2020}, author = {Ajanovic, S and Valente, M and Varo, R and Bassat, Q}, title = {Climate Change and the Future Health of Children in Low-Income Countries.}, journal = {Journal of tropical pediatrics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/tropej/fmaa008}, pmid = {32065642}, issn = {1465-3664}, }
@article {pmid32061640, year = {2020}, author = {Servili, A and Canario, AVM and Mouchel, O and Antonio Muñoz-Cueto, J}, title = {Climate change impacts on fish reproduction are mediated at multiple levels of the brain-pituitary-gonad axis.}, journal = {General and comparative endocrinology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {113439}, doi = {10.1016/j.ygcen.2020.113439}, pmid = {32061640}, issn = {1095-6840}, abstract = {Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have generated rapid variations in atmospheric composition which drives major climate changes. Climate change related effects include changes in physico-chemical proprieties of sea and freshwater, such as variations in water temperature, salinity, pH/PCO2 and oxygen content, which can impact fish critical physiological functions including reproduction. In this context, the main aim of the present review is to discuss how climate change related effects (variation in water temperature and salinity, increases in duration and frequency of hypoxia events, water acidification) would impact reproduction by affecting the neuroendocrine axis (brain-pituitary-gonad axis). Variations in temperature and photoperiod regimes are known to strongly affect sex differentiation and the timing and phenology of spawning period in several fish species. Temperature mainly acts at the level of gonad by interfering with steroidogenesis, (notably on gonadal aromatase activity) and gametogenesis. Temperature is also directly involved in the quality of released gametes and embryos development. Changes in salinity or water acidification are especially associated with reduction of sperm quality and reproductive output. Hypoxia events are able to interact with gonad steroidogenesis by acting on the steroids precursor cholesterol availability or directly on aromatase action, with an impact on the quality of gametes and reproductive success. Climate change related effects on water parameters likely influence also the reproductive behavior of fish. Although the precise mechanisms underlying the regulation of these effects are not always understood, in this review we discuss different hypothesis and propose future research perspectives.}, }
@article {pmid32060272, year = {2020}, author = {Stern, PC}, title = {A reexamination on how behavioral interventions can promote household action to limit climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {918}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-14653-x}, pmid = {32060272}, issn = {2041-1723}, }
@article {pmid32060183, year = {2020}, author = {Stacy, A and Newbery, SL}, title = {Climate change efforts.}, journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien}, volume = {66}, number = {2}, pages = {89-93}, pmid = {32060183}, issn = {1715-5258}, }
@article {pmid32060182, year = {2020}, author = {Hale, I and Hale, D}, title = {Climate change: motive, means, and opportunity.}, journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien}, volume = {66}, number = {2}, pages = {89}, pmid = {32060182}, issn = {1715-5258}, }
@article {pmid32059311, year = {2020}, author = {Inaotombi, S and Sarma, D}, title = {Vegetation affects photoprotective pigments and copepod distribution in the Himalayan lakes: Implication for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {716}, number = {}, pages = {137053}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137053}, pmid = {32059311}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Lakes in the Himalayas host unique biota and biological communities which are highly sensitive to climate change. High penetration of solar UV radiation in clear shallow lake affects the distribution and abundance of the zooplankton communities. Survival of copepods in such habitats often relies on available photoprotective compounds. We estimated species diversity and distribution patterns of copepods with detectable carotenoids in 7 lakes of the central Himalayas along the altitudinal gradients. To determine the factors influencing the accumulation of high-level photoprotective compounds, we analyzed the physicochemical parameters of water and the concentration of Lignin like Compounds (LLCs), Aromaticity (ARO), Humic Compounds (HCs), Degree of Humification (DoH) and percent Total Organic Matter (TOM) in littoral sediments. In the shallow lakes, copepod abundance and diversity correlate with water transparency. Humic compounds (HCs) derived from ligninaceous plants stimulate the accumulation of photoprotective compounds that allow for the domination of diaptomidae. Copepods receive photoprotective compounds from the humic-bounded sediment substrate. The amount of photoprotectants in the aquatic food chain of the central Himalayas is largely influenced by ligninaceous compounds derived from catchment vegetation. In copepods of shallow clear lakes, the remnant of dead trees in the littoral zones helps to minimize hazards caused by exposure effect and climatic stress. The reduction of vegetative covers in the shorelines may alter the community structure of zooplankton, particularly in the upland ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid32057694, year = {2020}, author = {Anderson, R and Bayer, PE and Edwards, D}, title = {Climate change and the need for agricultural adaptation.}, journal = {Current opinion in plant biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2019.12.006}, pmid = {32057694}, issn = {1879-0356}, abstract = {Agriculture and food security are predicted to be significantly impacted by climate change, though the impact will vary by region and by crop. Combined with the increasing global population, there is an urgent need for agriculture to adapt to ensure future food security for this growing population. Adaptation strategies include changing land and cropping practices, the development of improved crop varieties and changing food consumption and waste. Recent advances in genomics and agronomy can help alleviate some of the impacts of climate change on food production; however, given the timeframe for crop improvement, significant investment is required to realise these changes. Ultimately, there is a limit as to how far agriculture can adapt to the changing climate, and a political will to reduce the impact of burning of fossil fuels on the global climate is essential for long term food security.}, }
@article {pmid32057343, year = {2020}, author = {Tester, PA and Litaker, RW and Berdalet, E}, title = {Climate change and harmful benthic microalgae.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {91}, number = {}, pages = {101655}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.101655}, pmid = {32057343}, issn = {1878-1470}, abstract = {Sea surface temperatures in the world's oceans are projected to warm by 0.4-1.4 °C by mid twenty-first century causing many tropical and sub-tropical harmful dinoflagellate genera like Gambierdiscus, Fukuyoa and Ostreopsis (benthic harmful algal bloom species, BHABs) to exhibit higher growth rates over much of their current geographic range, resulting in higher population densities. The primary exception to this trend will be in the tropics where temperatures exceed species-specific upper thermal tolerances (30-31 °C) beyond which growth slows significantly. As surface waters warm, migration to deeper habitats is expected to provide refuge. Range extensions of several degrees of latitude also are anticipated, but only where species-specific habitat requirements can be met (e.g., temperature, suitable substrate, low turbulence, light, salinity, pH). The current understanding of habitat requirements that determine species distributions are reviewed to provide fuller understanding of how individual species will respond to climate change from the present to 2055 while addressing the paucity of information on environmental factors controlling small-scale distribution in localized habitats. Based on the available information, we hypothesized how complex environmental interactions can influence abundance and potential range extensions of BHAB species in different biogeographic regions and identify sentinel sites appropriate for long-term monitoring programs to detect range extensions and reduce human health risks.}, }
@article {pmid32057341, year = {2020}, author = {Gobler, CJ}, title = {Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms: Insights and perspective.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {91}, number = {}, pages = {101731}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.101731}, pmid = {32057341}, issn = {1878-1470}, abstract = {Climate change is transforming aquatic ecosystems. Coastal waters have experienced progressive warming, acidification, and deoxygenation that will intensify this century. At the same time, there is a scientific consensus that the public health, recreation, tourism, fishery, aquaculture, and ecosystem impacts from harmful algal blooms (HABs) have all increased over the past several decades. The extent to which climate change is intensifying these HABs is not fully clear, but there has been a wealth of research on this topic this century alone. Indeed, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) approved in September 2019 was the first IPCC report to directly link HABs to climate change. In the Summary for Policy Makers, the report made the following declarations with &quot;high confidence&quot;: In addition, the report specifically outlines a series of linkages between heat waves and HABs. These statements about HABs and climate change and the high levels of confidence ascribed to them provides clear evidence that the field of HABs and climate change has matured and has, perhaps, reached a first plateau of certainty. While there are well-documented global trends in HABs being promoted by human activity, including climate change, individual events are driven by local, regional, and global drivers, making it critical to carefully evaluate the conditions and responses at appropriate scales. It is within this context that the first Special Issue on Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms is published in Harmful Algae.}, }
@article {pmid32057339, year = {2020}, author = {Trainer, VL and Moore, SK and Hallegraeff, G and Kudela, RM and Clement, A and Mardones, JI and Cochlan, WP}, title = {Pelagic harmful algal blooms and climate change: Lessons from nature's experiments with extremes.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {91}, number = {}, pages = {101591}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.03.009}, pmid = {32057339}, issn = {1878-1470}, abstract = {Time series now have sufficient duration to determine harmful algal bloom (HAB) responses to changing climate conditions, including warming, stratification intensity, freshwater inputs and natural patterns of climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Against the context of time series, such as those available from phytoplankton monitoring, dinoflagellate cyst records, the Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys, and shellfish toxin records, it is possible to identify extreme events that are significant departures from long-term means. Extreme weather events can mimic future climate conditions and provide a &quot;dress rehearsal&quot; for understanding future frequency, intensity and geographic extent of HABs. Three case studies of extreme HAB events are described in detail to explore the drivers and impacts of these oceanic outliers that may become more common in the future. One example is the chain-forming diatom of the genus Pseudo-nitzschia in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and its response to the 2014-16 northeast Pacific marine heat wave. The other two case studies are pelagic flagellates. Highly potent Alexandrium catenella group 1 dinoflagellate blooms (up to 150 mg/kg PST in mussels; 4 human poisonings) during 2012-17 created havoc for the seafood industry in Tasmania, south-eastern Australia, in a poorly monitored area where such problems were previously unknown. Early evidence suggests that changes in water column stratification during the cold winter-spring season are driving new blooms caused by a previously cryptic species. An expansion of Pseudochattonella cf. verruculosa to the south and A. catenella to the north over the past several years resulted in the convergence of both species to cause the most catastrophic event in the history of the Chilean aquaculture in the austral summer of 2016. Together, these two massive blooms were colloquially known as the &quot;Godzilla-Red tide event&quot;, resulting in the largest fish farm mortality ever recorded worldwide, equivalent to an export loss of USD$800 million which when combined with shellfish toxicity, resulted in major social unrest and rioting. Both blooms were linked to the strong El Niño event and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, the latter an indicator of anthropogenic climate change in the southeastern Pacific region. For each of these three examples, representing recent catastrophic events in geographically distinct regions, additional targeted monitoring was employed to improve the understanding of the climate drivers and mechanisms that gave rise to the event and to document the societal response. Scientists must be poised to study future extreme HAB events as these natural experiments provide unique opportunities to define and test multifactorial drivers of blooms.}, }
@article {pmid32057338, year = {2020}, author = {Griffith, AW and Gobler, CJ}, title = {Harmful algal blooms: A climate change co-stressor in marine and freshwater ecosystems.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {91}, number = {}, pages = {101590}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.03.008}, pmid = {32057338}, issn = {1878-1470}, abstract = {Marine and freshwater ecosystems are warming, acidifying, and deoxygenating as a consequence of climate change. In parallel, the impacts of harmful algal blooms (HABs) on these ecosystems are intensifying. Many eutrophic habitats that host recurring HABs already experience thermal extremes, low dissolved oxygen, and low pH, making these locations potential sentinel sites for conditions that will become more common in larger-scale systems as climate change accelerates. While studies of the effects of HABs or individual climate change stressors on aquatic organisms have been relatively common, studies assessing their combined impacts have been rare. Those doing so have reported strong species- and strain-specific interactions between HAB species and climate change co-stressors yielding outcomes for aquatic organisms that could not have been predicted based on investigations of these factors individually. This review provides an ecological and physiological framework for considering HABs as a climate change co-stressor and considers the consequences of their combined occurrence for coastal ecosystems. This review also highlights critical gaps in our understanding of HABs as a climate change co-stressor that must be addressed in order to develop management plans that adequately protect fisheries, aquaculture, aquatic ecosystems, and human health. Ultimately, incorporating HAB species into experiments and monitoring programs where the effects of multiple climate change stressors are considered will provide a more ecologically relevant perspective of the structure and function of marine ecosystems in future, climate-altered systems.}, }
@article {pmid32057337, year = {2020}, author = {Hennon, GMM and Dyhrman, ST}, title = {Progress and promise of omics for predicting the impacts of climate change on harmful algal blooms.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {91}, number = {}, pages = {101587}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.03.005}, pmid = {32057337}, issn = {1878-1470}, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to increase the severity and prevalence of harmful algal blooms (HABs). In the past twenty years, omics techniques such as genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics have transformed that data landscape of many fields including the study of HABs. Advances in technology have facilitated the creation of many publicly available omics datasets that are complementary and shed new light on the mechanisms of HAB formation and toxin production. Genomics have been used to reveal differences in toxicity and nutritional requirements, while transcriptomics and proteomics have been used to explore HAB species responses to environmental stressors, and metabolomics can reveal mechanisms of allelopathy and toxicity. In this review, we explore how omics data may be leveraged to improve predictions of how climate change will impact HAB dynamics. We also highlight important gaps in our knowledge of HAB prediction, which include swimming behaviors, microbial interactions and evolution that can be addressed by future studies with omics tools. Lastly, we discuss approaches to incorporate current omics datasets into predictive numerical models that may enhance HAB prediction in a changing world. With the ever-increasing omics databases, leveraging these data for understanding climate-driven HAB dynamics will be increasingly powerful.}, }
@article {pmid32057336, year = {2020}, author = {Glibert, PM}, title = {Harmful algae at the complex nexus of eutrophication and climate change.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {91}, number = {}, pages = {101583}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.03.001}, pmid = {32057336}, issn = {1878-1470}, abstract = {Climate projections suggest-with substantial certainty-that global warming >1.5 °C will occur by mid-century (2050). Population is also projected to increase, amplifying the demands for food, fuel, water and sanitation, which, in turn, escalate nutrient pollution. Global projections of nutrient pollution, however, are less certain than those of climate as there are regionally decreasing trends projected in Europe, and stabilization of nutrient use in North America and Australia. In this review of the effects of eutrophication and climate on harmful algae, some of the complex, subtle, and non-intuitive effects and interactions on the physiology of both harmful and non-harmful taxa are emphasized. In a future ocean, non-harmful diatoms may be disproportionately stressed and mixotrophs advantaged due to changing nutrient stoichiometry and forms of nutrients, temperature, stratification and oceanic pH. Modeling is advancing, but there is much yet to be understood, in terms of physiology, biogeochemistry and trophodynamics and how both harmful and nonharmful taxa may change in an uncertain future driven by anthropogenic activities.}, }
@article {pmid32056705, year = {2020}, author = {Montánchez, I and Kaberdin, VR}, title = {Vibrio harveyi: A brief survey of general characteristics and recent epidemiological traits associated with climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {154}, number = {}, pages = {104850}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.104850}, pmid = {32056705}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Here we briefly review the major characteristics of the emerging pathogen Vibrio harveyi and discuss survival strategies and adaptation mechanisms underlying the capacity of this marine bacterium to thrive in natural and artificial aquatic settings. Recent studies suggest that some adaptation mechanisms can easily be acquired by V. harveyi and other members of the Vibrionaceae family owing to efficient horizontal gene transfer and elevated mutation rate. While discussing the main factors in charge of the expansion of Vibrio spp. habitats and concomitant spread of Vibrio-associated diseases under climate change, this review highlights the need for future studies able to address the joint impact of environmental and anthropogenic factors on the long-term dynamics and virulence of V. harveyi populations at the global scale.}, }
@article {pmid32055915, year = {2020}, author = {Hishe, H and Giday, K and Soromessa, T and Van Orshoven, J and Muys, B and Barati, AA and Moghaddam, SM and Ozuyar, PG and Azadi, H}, title = {Should we Leave Nature Unattended or Assist through Enrichment to Foster Climate Change Mitigation? Exclosure Management in the Highlands of Ethiopia.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01259-8}, pmid = {32055915}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {In order to foster the potential of exclosures to sequester carbon, it is understood that they are increasingly assisted through enrichment planting. To study the impact of the enrichment planting on carbon sequestration process, five exclosures with enrichment planting and five pure naturally regenerated exclosures were selected. Along parallel transects, 20 × 20 m plots were laid at 100 m intervals where all woody vegetations were counted and measured for their diameter and total height. For soil sampling, five subplots at the center and four at each corner of the plots were established. The samples were collected at a depth of 0-0.2 m, and this procedure was repeated for each plot. In this case, when good management practices were implemented (such as Wukro exclosures), significant differences in organic soil carbon above the ground and the total carbon between naturally regenerated and enriched exclosures (P < 0.05) were found. The mean estimates of the above ground carbon, soil carbon, and total carbon were respectively 8.08, 31.04, and 39.12 ton/ha for natural regeneration vs. 7.94, 31.00, and 38.93 ton/ha for enriched regeneration. Lower altitudes had significantly higher soil organic carbon (P < 0.05) than the higher altitudes. However, the slope had an insignificant effect on carbon distribution. Enriched exclosures performed more poorly in carbon sequestration. This was possibly due to the disturbances caused by mass plantation and poor post plantation follow up, since improved performance (P < 0.05) was seen in one enriched exclosure with better management practices.}, }
@article {pmid32055428, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {Climate Change: Impact on Livestock and How Can We Adapt.}, journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {NP}, doi = {10.1093/af/vfz022}, pmid = {32055428}, issn = {2160-6064}, }
@article {pmid32055407, year = {2020}, author = {Waldvogel, AM and Feldmeyer, B and Rolshausen, G and Exposito-Alonso, M and Rellstab, C and Kofler, R and Mock, T and Schmid, K and Schmitt, I and Bataillon, T and Savolainen, O and Bergland, A and Flatt, T and Guillaume, F and Pfenninger, M}, title = {Evolutionary genomics can improve prediction of species' responses to climate change.}, journal = {Evolution letters}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {4-18}, doi = {10.1002/evl3.154}, pmid = {32055407}, issn = {2056-3744}, abstract = {Global climate change (GCC) increasingly threatens biodiversity through the loss of species, and the transformation of entire ecosystems. Many species are challenged by the pace of GCC because they might not be able to respond fast enough to changing biotic and abiotic conditions. Species can respond either by shifting their range, or by persisting in their local habitat. If populations persist, they can tolerate climatic changes through phenotypic plasticity, or genetically adapt to changing conditions depending on their genetic variability and census population size to allow for de novo mutations. Otherwise, populations will experience demographic collapses and species may go extinct. Current approaches to predicting species responses to GCC begin to combine ecological and evolutionary information for species distribution modelling. Including an evolutionary dimension will substantially improve species distribution projections which have not accounted for key processes such as dispersal, adaptive genetic change, demography, or species interactions. However, eco-evolutionary models require new data and methods for the estimation of a species' adaptive potential, which have so far only been available for a small number of model species. To represent global biodiversity, we need to devise large-scale data collection strategies to define the ecology and evolutionary potential of a broad range of species, especially of keystone species of ecosystems. We also need standardized and replicable modelling approaches that integrate these new data to account for eco-evolutionary processes when predicting the impact of GCC on species' survival. Here, we discuss different genomic approaches that can be used to investigate and predict species responses to GCC. This can serve as guidance for researchers looking for the appropriate experimental setup for their particular system. We furthermore highlight future directions for moving forward in the field and allocating available resources more effectively, to implement mitigation measures before species go extinct and ecosystems lose important functions.}, }
@article {pmid32055100, year = {2020}, author = {Fant, C and Boehlert, B and Strzepek, K and Larsen, P and White, A and Gulati, S and Li, Y and Martinich, J}, title = {Climate change impacts and costs to U.S. electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure.}, journal = {Energy (Oxford, England)}, volume = {195}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2020.116899}, pmid = {32055100}, issn = {0360-5442}, abstract = {This study presents a screening-level analysis of the impacts of climate change on electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure of the U.S. In particular, the model identifies changes in performance and longevity of physical infrastructure such as power poles and transformers, and quantifies these impacts in economic terms. This analysis was evaluated for the contiguous U.S, using five general circulation models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to analyze changes in damage and cost from the baseline period to the end of the century with three different adaptation strategies. Total infrastructure costs were found to rise considerably, with annual climate change expenditures increasing by as much as 25%. The results demonstrate that climate impacts will likely be substantial, though this analysis only captures a portion of the total potential impacts. A proactive adaptation strategy resulted in the expected costs of climate change being reduced by as much as 50% by 2090, compared to a scenario without adaptation. Impacts vary across the contiguous U.S. with the highest impacts in parts of the Southeast and Northwest. Improvements and extensions to this analysis would help better inform climate resiliency policies and utility-level planning for the future.}, }
@article {pmid32055048, year = {2020}, author = {Jia, P and Wang, T and van Vliet, AJH and Skidmore, AK and van Aalst, M}, title = {Worsening of tree-related public health issues under climate change.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41477-020-0598-2}, pmid = {32055048}, issn = {2055-0278}, support = {SKLURE2018-2-5//State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology (SKLURE)/ ; }, }
@article {pmid32053591, year = {2020}, author = {Sultana, S and Baumgartner, JB and Dominiak, BC and Royer, JE and Beaumont, LJ}, title = {Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {e0213820}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0213820}, pmid = {32053591}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Tephritid fruit flies are among the most destructive horticultural pests posing risks to Australia's multi-billion-dollar horticulture industry. Currently, there are 11 pest fruit fly species of economic concern in Australia. Of these, nine are native to this continent (Bactrocera aquilonis, B. bryoniae, B. halfordiae, B. jarvisi, B. kraussi, B. musae, B. neohumeralis, B. tryoni and Zeugodacus cucumis), while B. frauenfeldi and Ceratitis capitata are introduced. To varying degrees these species are costly to Australia's horticulture through in-farm management, monitoring to demonstrate pest freedom, quarantine and trade restrictions, and crop losses. Here, we used a common species distribution model, Maxent, to assess climate suitability for these 11 species under baseline (1960-1990) and future climate scenarios for Australia. Projections indicate that the Wet Tropics is likely to be vulnerable to all 11 species until at least 2070, with the east coast of Australia also likely to remain vulnerable to multiple species. While the Cape York Peninsula and Northern Territory are projected to have suitable climate for numerous species, extrapolation to novel climates in these areas decreases confidence in model projections. The climate suitability of major horticulture areas currently in eastern Queensland, southern-central New South Wales and southern Victoria to these pests may increase as climate changes. By highlighting areas at risk of pest range expansion in the future our study may guide Australia's horticulture industry in developing effective monitoring and management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32052555, year = {2020}, author = {Wang, H and Liu, H and Cao, G and Ma, Z and Li, Y and Zhang, F and Zhao, X and Zhao, X and Jiang, L and Sanders, NJ and Classen, AT and He, JS}, title = {Alpine grassland plants grow earlier and faster but biomass remains unchanged over 35 years of climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13474}, pmid = {32052555}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {//research grants from Lanzhou University/ ; lzujbky-2019-76//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; DEB-1856318 and CBET-1833988//the National Science Foundation of USA to LJ/ ; //a Semper Ardens grant from the Carlsbergfondet to NJS/ ; 31630009; 31901145//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Satellite data indicate significant advancement in alpine spring phenology over decades of climate warming, but corresponding field evidence is scarce. It is also unknown whether this advancement results from an earlier shift of phenological events, or enhancement of plant growth under unchanged phenological pattern. By analyzing a 35-year dataset of seasonal biomass dynamics of a Tibetan alpine grassland, we show that climate change promoted both earlier phenology and faster growth, without changing annual biomass production. Biomass production increased in spring due to a warming-induced earlier onset of plant growth, but decreased in autumn due mainly to increased water stress. Plants grew faster but the fast-growing period shortened during the mid-growing season. These findings provide the first in situ evidence of long-term changes in growth patterns in alpine grassland plant communities, and suggest that earlier phenology and faster growth will jointly contribute to plant growth in a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid32050393, year = {2020}, author = {Jarsjö, J and Andersson-Sköld, Y and Fröberg, M and Pietroń, J and Borgström, R and Löv, Å and Kleja, DB}, title = {Projecting impacts of climate change on metal mobilization at contaminated sites: Controls by the groundwater level.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {712}, number = {}, pages = {135560}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135560}, pmid = {32050393}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Heavy metal and metalloid contamination of topsoils from atmospheric deposition and release from landfills, agriculture, and industries is a widespread problem that is estimated to affect >50% of the EU's land surface. Influx of contaminants from soil to groundwater and their further downstream spread and impact on drinking water quality constitute a main exposure risk to humans. There is increasing concern that the present contaminant loading of groundwater and surface water systems may be altered, and potentially aggravated, by ongoing climate change, through large-scale impacts on recharge and groundwater levels. We investigated this issue by performing hydrogeological-geochemical model projections of changes in metal(loid) (As and Pb) mobilization in response to possible (climate-driven) future shifts in groundwater level and fluctuation amplitudes. We used observed initial conditions and boundary conditions for contaminated soils in the temperate climate zone. The results showed that relatively modest increases (0.2 m) in average levels of shallow groundwater systems, which may occur in Northern Europe within the coming two decades, can increase mass flows of metals through groundwater by a factor of 2-10. There is a similar risk of increased metal mobilization in regions subject to increased (seasonal or event-scale) amplitude of groundwater levels fluctuations. Neglecting groundwater level dynamics in predictive models can thus lead to considerable and systematic underestimation of metal mobilization and future changes. More generally, our results suggest that the key to quantifying impacts of climate change on metal mobilization is to understand how the contact between groundwater and the highly water-conducting and geochemically heterogeneous topsoil layers will change in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32050360, year = {2020}, author = {Lengyel, E and Lázár, D and Trájer, AJ and Stenger-Kovács, C}, title = {Climate change projections for Carpathian soda pans on the basis of photosynthesis evidence from typical diatom species.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {710}, number = {}, pages = {136241}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136241}, pmid = {32050360}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Carpathian Basin is home to a number of astatic soda pans which are especially vulnerable to the climate change due to their high degree of hydrological sensitivity. The photosynthetic plasticity of the three most dominant benthic diatom species (Nitzschia aurariae, N. reskovii, N. supralitorea) in a number of soda pans was measured, along with sulphate and chloride ion content; conductivity and temperature gradients were also recorded. On the basis of the maximal photosynthetic activity (Ps), climate models were employed to observe and predict the effects of climate change on photosynthesis over three time-spans: past (1970-2000), recent past (2005-2015) and projected future (2041-2060). Comparing the periods, it becomes apparent that climate change has a significant effect on photosynthesis and the photosynthetically active period of the Nitzschia species, the dominant primary producers in soda pans, by enhancing their photosynthetic activity and extending their vegetation period by two months. Due to the breadth of their ecological niche, the competitive advantages of the diatom species studied in the course of this research as against others are expected to prevail under the conditions predicted by the climate scenario presented here.}, }
@article {pmid32048375, year = {2020}, author = {Beaudry, E and McKay, FH and Haines, BC}, title = {How are Victorian Local Government's Responding to Climate Change and Food Insecurity?.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/hpja.330}, pmid = {32048375}, issn = {1036-1073}, abstract = {ISSUE ADDRESSED: Climate change is one of the greatest challenges to public health and wellbeing. Steps taken by governments now will have a significant effect on public health outcomes, including the food system and food security.<br><br>METHOD: This study reviewed municipal public health and wellbeing plans from 79 local government areas (LGAs) in Victoria, Australia. Documents were included if they explicitly mentioned climate change and food insecurity. Of the 79 LGAs, 13 met the selection criteria and a content and framing analysis was conducted to identify the level of recognition of climate change on food security and proposed mitigation actions and strategies.<br><br>RESULTS: Of the 13 LGAs, the documents of six were identified as having a high level of responsiveness to climate change and food insecurity, five were assessed as medium, and two low. Framing analysis identified council acknowledgment of how climate change effects food access through availability and price, and growing food locally and sustainably seen as a common action to improve food security.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggest that planning for climate change and food insecurity is not a high priority for Victorian LGAs. Given the current political climate in Australia, where many in federal government continue to deny the existence of climate change or are reluctant to implement mitigation strategies, it is now and will be increasingly important into the future that local governments plan for the impact of climate change on food insecurity. SO WHAT?: Climate change will impact how people access food and what foods are available to them. Unless all levels of government start to address, and plan for, climate change, the impact on communities will continue to intensify and grow more costly and damaging.}, }
@article {pmid32045029, year = {2020}, author = {Lloyd, EA and Shepherd, TG}, title = {Environmental catastrophes, climate change, and attribution.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14308}, pmid = {32045029}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//National Science Foundation/ ; 339390//FP7 Ideas: European Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {In our discussion of environmental and ecological catastrophes or disasters resulting from extreme weather events, we unite disparate literatures, the biological and the physical. Our goal is to tie together biological understandings of extreme environmental events with physical understandings of extreme weather events into joint causal accounts. This requires fine-grained descriptions, in both space and time, of the ecological, evolutionary, and biological moving parts of a system together with fine-grained descriptions, also in both space and time, of the extreme weather events. We find that both the &quot;storyline&quot; approach to extreme event attribution and the probabilistic &quot;risk-based&quot; approach have uses in such descriptions. However, the storyline approach is more readily aligned with the forensic approach to evidence that is prevalent in the ecological literature, which cultivates expert-based rules of thumb, that is, heuristics, and detailed methods for analyzing causes and mechanisms. We introduce below a number of preliminary examples of such studies as instances of what could be pursued in the future in much more detail.}, }
@article {pmid32042980, year = {2020}, author = {Issoufou, AA and Soumana, I and Maman, G and Konate, S and Mahamane, A}, title = {Dynamic relationship of traditional soil restoration practices and climate change adaptation in semi-arid Niger.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {e03265}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e03265}, pmid = {32042980}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change increases the vulnerability of agrosystems to soil degradation and reduces the effectiveness of traditional soil restoration options. The implementation of some practices need to be readjusted due to steadily increasing temperature and lowering precipitation. For farmers, the best practice found, should have the potential to achieve maximum sustainable levels of soil productivity in the context of climate change. A study was conducted in South-West Niger to investigate the use of the suitable practice, through (i) a meta-analysis of case studies, (ii) using field survey and (iii) by using AquaCrop model. Results showed that the effects of the association zaï + mulch on crop yield was up to 2 times higher than control plots depending on climate projections scenario RCP 8.5 under which carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are projected to reach 936 ppm by 2100. The practice appeared to be an interesting option for enhancing crop productivity in a context of climate change. Concerning its ability, it offers the best prospects to reverse soil degradation in the study area. In addition, the simulation showed that this strategy was suitable for timely sowing and therefore confirmed scholars and farmers views. Furthermore, this practice is relatively more effective compared to the others practices. These results show that association zaï + mulch could be considered as the best practice that can participate to a successful adaptation to reduce risk from climate change at the same time by reducing the vulnerability of farmers in Southwest of Niger for now and even for the future.}, }
@article {pmid32041877, year = {2020}, author = {Román-Palacios, C and Wiens, JJ}, title = {Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1913007117}, pmid = {32041877}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate change may be a major threat to biodiversity in the next 100 years. Although there has been important work on mechanisms of decline in some species, it generally remains unclear which changes in climate actually cause extinctions, and how many species will likely be lost. Here, we identify the specific changes in climate that are associated with the widespread local extinctions that have already occurred. We then use this information to predict the extent of future biodiversity loss and to identify which processes may forestall extinction. We used data from surveys of 538 plant and animal species over time, 44% of which have already had local extinctions at one or more sites. We found that locations with local extinctions had larger and faster changes in hottest yearly temperatures than those without. Surprisingly, sites with local extinctions had significantly smaller changes in mean annual temperatures, despite the widespread use of mean annual temperatures as proxies for overall climate change. Based on their past rates of dispersal, we estimate that 57-70% of these 538 species will not disperse quickly enough to avoid extinction. However, we show that niche shifts appear to be far more important for avoiding extinction than dispersal, although most studies focus only on dispersal. Specifically, considering both dispersal and niche shifts, we project that only 16-30% of these 538 species may go extinct by 2070. Overall, our results help identify the specific climatic changes that cause extinction and the processes that may help species to survive.}, }
@article {pmid32041306, year = {2020}, author = {Ezquer, I and Salameh, I and Colombo, L and Kalaitzis, P}, title = {Plant Cell Walls Tackling Climate Change: Insights into Plant Cell Wall Remodeling, Its Regulation, and Biotechnological Strategies to Improve Crop Adaptations and Photosynthesis in Response to Global Warming.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants9020212}, pmid = {32041306}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {Linea2-DBS//Dept. Biosciences-UNIMI/ ; RISE-EXPOSEED//H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions/ ; }, abstract = {Plant cell wall (CW) is a complex and intricate structure that performs several functions throughout the plant life cycle. The CW of plants is critical to the maintenance of cells' structural integrity by resisting internal hydrostatic pressures, providing flexibility to support cell division and expansion during tissue differentiation, and acting as an environmental barrier that protects the cells in response to abiotic stress. Plant CW, comprised primarily of polysaccharides, represents the largest sink for photosynthetically fixed carbon, both in plants and in the biosphere. The CW structure is highly varied, not only between plant species but also among different organs, tissues, and cell types in the same organism. During the developmental processes, the main CW components, i.e., cellulose, pectins, hemicelluloses, and different types of CW-glycoproteins, interact constantly with each other and with the environment to maintain cell homeostasis. Differentiation processes are altered by positional effect and are also tightly linked to environmental changes, affecting CW both at the molecular and biochemical levels. The negative effect of climate change on the environment is multifaceted, from high temperatures, altered concentrations of greenhouse gases such as increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, soil salinity, and drought, to increasing frequency of extreme weather events taking place concomitantly, therefore, climate change affects crop productivity in multiple ways. Rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is expected to increase photosynthetic rates, especially at high temperatures and under water-limited conditions. This review aims to synthesize current knowledge regarding the effects of climate change on CW biogenesis and modification. We discuss specific cases in crops of interest carrying cell wall modifications that enhance tolerance to climate change-related stresses; from cereals such as rice, wheat, barley, or maize to dicots of interest such as brassica oilseed, cotton, soybean, tomato, or potato. This information could be used for the rational design of genetic engineering traits that aim to increase the stress tolerance in key crops. Future growing conditions expose plants to variable and extreme climate change factors, which negatively impact global agriculture, and therefore further research in this area is critical.}, }
@article {pmid32037991, year = {2020}, author = {Fischer, JW}, title = {Climate change and Canadian emergency medicine: Exploring alternative futures.}, journal = {CJEM}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1017/cem.2019.484}, pmid = {32037991}, issn = {1481-8035}, }
@article {pmid32037696, year = {2020}, author = {Fredston-Hermann, A and Selden, B and Pinsky, M and Gaines, SD and Halpern, BS}, title = {Cold range edges of marine fishes track climate change better than warm edges.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15035}, pmid = {32037696}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Species around the world are shifting their ranges in response to climate change. To make robust predictions about climate-related colonizations and extinctions, it is vital to understand the dynamics of range edges. This study is among the first to examine annual dynamics of cold and warm range edges, as most global change studies average observational data over space or over time. We analyzed annual range edge dynamics of marine fishes-both at the individual species level and pooled into cold- and warm-edge assemblages-in a multi-decade time-series of trawl surveys conducted on the Northeast U.S. Shelf during a period of rapid warming. We tested whether cold edges show stronger evidence of climate tracking than warm edges (due to non-climate processes or time lags at the warm edge; the biogeography hypothesis or extinction debt hypothesis), or whether they tracked temperature change equally (due to the influence of habitat suitability; the ecophysiology hypothesis). In addition to exploring correlations with regional temperature change, we calculated species- and assemblage-specific sea bottom and sea surface temperature isotherms and used them to predict range edge position. Cold edges shifted further and tracked sea surface and bottom temperature isotherms to a greater degree than warm edges. Mixed-effects models revealed that for a one-degree latitude shift in isotherm position, cold edges shifted 0.47 degrees of latitude, and warm edges shifted only 0.28 degrees. Our results suggest that cold range edges are tracking climate change better than warm range edges, invalidating the ecophysiology hypothesis. We also found that even among highly mobile marine ectotherms in a global warming hotspot, few species are fully keeping pace with climate.}, }
@article {pmid32037631, year = {2020}, author = {Oyinlola, MA and Reygondeau, G and Wabnitz, CCC and Cheung, WWL}, title = {Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14974}, pmid = {32037631}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Nippon Foundation-University of British Columbia, Nereus Program/ ; //Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, abstract = {Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio-economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%-40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the 'no mitigation policy' scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid-21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 ('strong mitigation') and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32036529, year = {2020}, author = {Sofuoğlu, E and Ay, A}, title = {The relationship between climate change and political instability: the case of MENA countries (1985:01-2016:12).}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-07937-8}, pmid = {32036529}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between climate change and political instability in the MENA region. To this extent, 18 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries are analyzed covering the period 1985:01-2016:12 with monthly data. In econometric analysis, at first cross-sectional dependency analysis is applied, and existence of cross-sectional dependency among countries is found. Therefore, CADF-second generation panel unit root test applied, and finally, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test that consider the cross-sectional dependency are utilized. For empirical analysis, temperature and precipitation data representing climate change, political instability, and conflict data are employed. According to the findings, there is a causal relationship from climate change to political instability in 16 countries and to conflict in 15 countries. In addition to this, at least one causal relationship is determined from climate change to political instability or conflict in all MENA countries. Therefore, empirical results support the assumption that climate change acts as a threat multiplier in MENA countries since it triggers, accelerates, and deepens the current instabilities.}, }
@article {pmid32034589, year = {2020}, author = {Chen, MF}, title = {Moral extension of the protection motivation theory model to predict climate change mitigation behavioral intentions in Taiwan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-07963-6}, pmid = {32034589}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {NSC 100- 2410-H-036-001-MY3//National Science Council/ ; MOST 105-2410-H-036-003-MY3//Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan/ ; }, abstract = {In this study, perceived moral obligations were included in the protection motivation theory (PMT) model to explain people's intentions to participate in climate change mitigation behaviors. Empirical data and structural equation modeling results of a nationwide cross-sectional survey in Taiwan confirmed the higher explanatory power of the moral extension PMT model than that of the original PMT model. As expected, threat and coping appraisal of climate change affect protection motivation. In addition, perceived moral obligation affects protection motivation. This protection motivation enhances the intention to participate in climate change mitigation behaviors. The mediation effect of protection motivation was also verified in the moral extension PMT model. Practical implications and suggestions are proposed for the government and related authorities as well as environmental groups to encourage people to participate in climate change mitigation behaviors.}, }
@article {pmid32033377, year = {2020}, author = {Alonso, L and Renard, F}, title = {A Comparative Study of the Physiological and Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities to Heat Waves of the Population of the Metropolis of Lyon (France) in a Climate Change Context.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph17031004}, pmid = {32033377}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves are direct consequences of global climate change with a higher risk for urban populations due to the urban heat island effect. Reducing urban overheating is a priority, as is identifying the most vulnerable people to establish targeted and coordinated public health policies. There are many ways of understanding the concept of vulnerability and multiple definitions and applications exist in the literature. To date, however, nothing has been done on the territory of this study, the metropolis of Lyon (France). The objective is thus to construct two vulnerability indices: physiological, focusing on the organism's capacities to respond to heat waves; and socio-economic, based on the social and economic characteristics and capacities of the community. To this end, two complementary methodologies have been implemented: the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and the PCA (Principal Component Analysis) with Varimax rotation, respectively. The results were then spatialized to the smallest demographic census unit in France. The areas highlighted differed due to conceptual and methodological differences: the highest physiological vulnerabilities are in the center while the socio-economic ones are in the eastern periphery of the urban area. The location of these areas will enable prevention campaigns to be carried out, targeted according to the publics concerned.}, }
@article {pmid32032387, year = {2020}, author = {Ainsworth, A and Drake, DR}, title = {Classifying Hawaiian plant species along a habitat generalist-specialist continuum: Implications for species conservation under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {e0228573}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0228573}, pmid = {32032387}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Plant communities on tropical high islands, such as the Hawaiian Islands, are predicted to experience rapid climate change, resulting in novel climates. If increased temperature and/or drought exceed plant species' current tolerances, species that are unable to adapt or shift ranges risk extinction. By definition, habitat generalists have a wide niche breadth and thrive in a variety of habitats, whereas habitat specialists have a narrow niche breadth, and typically thrive under more specific climatic characteristics (e.g., cold). The objectives of this study were to: (1) classify plant species in the Hawaiian Islands along a habitat generalist-specialist continuum; (2) independently test the validity of species rankings, using environmental and biogeographic ranges; and (3) identify species' life-history traits that predict species location along the continuum. We quantified specialization for 170 plant species using species co-occurrence data from over one thousand plots to rank species' realized habitat niche breadth using the Jaccard index. The distribution of species along this continuum differed by species biogeographic origin, with endemic plant species ranked on the specialist end and non-native plant species ranked on the generalist end. Habitat specialization rankings also differed for four of nine tested variables (while controlling for biogeographic origin): number of habitat moisture types, minimum elevation, number of Hawaiian Islands, and life form. Life form was the only trait tested that differed across the continuum, with woody species ranked as stronger generalists than herbaceous species; this pattern was particularly evident for non-native species. This indirect method of estimating species' potential climatic flexibility uses increasingly available large plant community data sets with output rankings which represent species' realized habitat niches. Identifying species and plant communities that are on the habitat specialist end of the continuum allows for their prioritization in conservation planning, as globally the loss of specialists is an indication of degradation.}, }
@article {pmid32030161, year = {2019}, author = {Roshan, G and Arab, M and Klimenko, V}, title = {Modeling the impact of climate change on energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of buildings in Iran.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health science &amp; engineering}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {889-906}, doi = {10.1007/s40201-019-00406-6}, pmid = {32030161}, issn = {2052-336X}, abstract = {In this study, it has been attempted to quantify model climate change effects of the coming decades on energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions of a dominant building brigade under hot and humid climates on the southern coast of Iran, based on three stations of Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Chabahar. In this research, the Meteonorm and DesignBuilder software have been used for climate and thermal simulation of building. One of the results of this study is the increase in temperature and relative humidity for the coming decades for all three study stations. The findings of this study showed that the average annual temperature for the 2060s compared to the present decade, will increase by 2.82 °C for Bandar Abbas, by 2.79 °C for Bushehr and for Chabahar it will reach 2.14 °C. This increase in temperature has led to an increase in discomfort warmer days and a decrease in discomfort cold days. But given the climatic type of the area, a decrease in the heating energy demand for the coming decades will not have a significant effect on the pattern of energy consumption inside buildings. Because for two stations of Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, more than 95% of the energy demand for the 2060s is for cooling energy demand, which is about 80% of energy for Bushehr. In total, due to the increased demand for cooling energy in the coming decades, this will further increase carbon dioxide emissions, which is higher in Chabahar than in other study stations.}, }
@article {pmid32030153, year = {2019}, author = {Salehi, S and Ardalan, A and Ostadtaghizadeh, A and Garmaroudi, G and Zareiyan, A and Rahimiforoushani, A}, title = {Conceptual definition and framework of climate change and dust storm adaptation: a qualitative study.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health science &amp; engineering}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {797-810}, doi = {10.1007/s40201-019-00396-5}, pmid = {32030153}, issn = {2052-336X}, abstract = {Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is a complex, multi-disciplinary, and culture-dependent concept. This study aims to explore a conceptual definition, the subjective framework of CCA including its domains, attributes, and consequences. The approach of qualitative conventional content analysis was considered for the explanation of the subjective concept, and at the same time as the collection process, data analysis was performed using Zhang and Wildemuth's method. The interview method was semi-structured and sampling was targeted and with maximum diversity. The interview was conducted with 22 qualified experts. The accuracy and validity of the data were ensured using Guba and Lincoln scientific accuracy criteria. Six main categories including &quot;sustainability, productivity, stability, empowerment, transformation, and flexibility&quot; were conceptualized in the theme of adaptation characteristics. &quot;Sustainable development, life improvement, response coordination and integration, creativity and innovation, resilience promotion, vulnerability reduction, effective management, and independence&quot; were the main categories in the theme of the adaptation consequences. According to the results, the following conceptual-functional definition can be presented for adaptation to climate change: &quot;CCA refers to the ability of system instability, sustainability, empowerment, productivity, flexibility, and transformation to climate change through the optimal use of resources, resistance, and coping, capacity building and opportunity creation&quot;. This definition is conceptual, it means that includes the main features of climate-adaptation and is also functional that is, includes adaptation strategies for climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32029806, year = {2020}, author = {Chen, J and Wang, Z and Tam, CY and Lau, NC and Lau, DD and Mok, HY}, title = {Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and induced storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region using pseudo-global-warming method.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1965}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-58824-8}, pmid = {32029806}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {We have investigated changes of western North Pacific land-falling tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics due to warmer climate conditions, using the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) technique. Historical simulations of three intense TCs making landfall in Pearl River Delta (PRD) were first conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The same cases were then re-simulated by superimposing near- (2015-2039) and far- (2075-2099) future temperature and humidity changes onto the background climate; these changes were derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model projections according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Peak intensities of TCs (maximum surface wind in their lifetimes) are expected to increase by ~ (3) 10% in the (near) far future. Further experiments indicate that surface warming alone acts to intensify TCs by enhancing sea surface heat flux, while warmer atmosphere acts in the opposite way by increasing the stability. In the far future, associated storm surges are also estimated to increase by about 8.5%, computed by the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. Combined with sea level rise and estimated land vertical displacement, TC-induced storm tide affecting PRD will increase by ~1 m in the future 2075-2099 period.}, }
@article {pmid32029628, year = {2020}, author = {Soroye, P and Newbold, T and Kerr, J}, title = {Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees across continents.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {367}, number = {6478}, pages = {685-688}, doi = {10.1126/science.aax8591}, pmid = {32029628}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Climate change could increase species' extinction risk as temperatures and precipitation begin to exceed species' historically observed tolerances. Using long-term data for 66 bumble bee species across North America and Europe, we tested whether this mechanism altered likelihoods of bumble bee species' extinction or colonization. Increasing frequency of hotter temperatures predicts species' local extinction risk, chances of colonizing a new area, and changing species richness. Effects are independent of changing land uses. The method developed in this study permits spatially explicit predictions of climate change-related population extinction-colonizat