@article {pmid31637793, year = {2019}, author = {Smith, P and Calvin, K and Nkem, J and Campbell, D and Cherubini, F and Grassi, G and Korotkov, V and Le Hoang, A and Lwasa, S and McElwee, P and Nkonya, E and Saigusa, N and Soussana, JF and Taboada, MA and Manning, F and Nampanzira, D and Arias-Navarro, C and Vizzarri, M and House, J and Roe, S and Cowie, A and Rounsevell, M and Arneth, A}, title = {Which practices co-deliver food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and combat land-degradation and desertification?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14878}, pmid = {31637793}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {There is a clear need for transformative change in the land management and food production sectors to address the global land challenges of climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, combatting land-degradation and desertification, and delivering food security (referred to hereafter as "land challenges"). We assess the potential for 40 practices to address these land challenges and find that: Nine options deliver medium to large benefits for all four land challenges. A further two options, have no global estimates for adaptation, but have medium to large benefits for all other land challenges. Five options have large mitigation potential (> 3 GtCO2 e yr-1) without adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Five options have moderate mitigation potential, with no adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Sixteen practices have large adaptation potential (>25 million people benefit), without adverse side-effects on other land challenges. Most practices can be applied without competing for available land. However, seven options could result in competition for land. A large number of practices do not require dedicated land, including several land management options, all value chain options, and all risk management options. Four options could greatly increase competition for land if applied at a large scale, though the impact is scale and context specific, highlighting the need for safeguards to ensure that expansion of land for mitigation does not impact natural systems and food security. A number of practices such as increased food productivity, dietary change and reduced food loss and waste, can reduce demand for land conversion, thereby potentially freeing-up land and creating opportunities for enhanced implementation of other practices, making them important components of portfolios of practices to address the combined land challenges.}, }
@article {pmid31635581, year = {2019}, author = {Chersich, MF and Scorgie, F and Wright, CY and Mullick, S and Mathee, A and Hess, J and Richter, M and Rees, H}, title = {Climate change and adolescents in South Africa: The role of youth activism and the health sector in safeguarding adolescents' health and education.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {109}, number = {9}, pages = {615-619}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2019.v109i9.14327}, pmid = {31635581}, issn = {2078-5135}, }
@article {pmid31635410, year = {2019}, author = {Dwirahmadi, F and Rutherford, S and Phung, D and Chu, C}, title = {Understanding the Operational Concept of a Flood-Resilient Urban Community in Jakarta, Indonesia, from the Perspectives of Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation and Development Agencies.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {20}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16203993}, pmid = {31635410}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate change-related extreme events such as floods have and will continue to present a great challenge to disaster risk management. There is a pressing need to develop a robust management strategy via enhancing the resiliency of the community, particularly in the context of complex urban environments, like Jakarta. Resilience is conceptualized within specific contexts and uniquely tailored to the targeted setting, yet research regarding the operational concept of a flood-resilient community in the context of Jakarta remains limited. This paper will elaborate this operational concept through understanding the desirable features and influential barriers of a flood-resilient community through the lenses of three main stakeholder groups: disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and development. It will also discuss the ways in which the synergies that exist across these groups can be enhanced. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were applied in this study, and multiple sources of data were used. The findings indicate that these groups share common views regarding the importance of human aspects being central to resilience building efforts. We argue there is an urgent need to shift the flood resilience building paradigm towards building community resilience from the people and to apply a collaborative governance approach to facilitate effective partnership between the actors involved.}, }
@article {pmid31635157, year = {2019}, author = {He, S and Qin, T and Liu, F and Liu, S and Dong, B and Wang, J and Nie, H}, title = {Effects of Slope Ecological Restoration on Runoff and Its Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {20}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16204017}, pmid = {31635157}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Slope ecological restoration and climate change are important factors affecting the hydrological processes of the Huangshui River Basin in Qinghai province, China. How to quantitatively identify the impact of slope ecological restoration on runoff and whether slope ecological restoration can mitigate the impact of future climate change on runoff are both very important. In this paper, the Huangshui River above the center of Minhe county was taken as the research area, and the Pinus tabulaeformis and shrubs were taken as the main forest land types of slope ecological restoration. First, based on the law of forest land variation, the construction scales of slope ecological restoration in different periods were identified. The influence of slope ecological restoration on runoff was then quantitatively evaluated by using a distributed hydrological model. Second, the future climate scenarios of five general circulation models (GCMs) under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) from 2021 to 2050 were selected and modified by model integration. Combined with the slope ecological restoration scenarios, the influence of slope ecological restoration on runoff under future climate scenarios was explored. The results showed that the effect of slope ecological restoration was significant. Compared with 1980, the area of slope ecological restoration increased by 24% in 2017. Under the present climate conditions (1960-2017), different periods of slope ecological restoration have an effect on the process of runoff in the wet season (June, July, August, and September) and dry season (January, February, March, and December), which eliminates the maximum, replenishes the minimum, and reduces the variability of runoff processes in the watershed. Under the future climate scenario (2021-50), slope ecological restoration will reduce runoff. On the other hand, climate change will increase runoff, and the combination of the two effects will have a certain offsetting effect. On the whole, comparing the influence of slope ecological restoration on the runoff process with that of climate change in different seasons, due to the main influence of slope ecological restoration, the runoff decreased by about 55% in the temperate season (April, May, October, and November), and increased by about 50% in the dry season or wet season due to the main influence of future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid31634990, year = {2019}, author = {Ayllón, D and Railsback, SF and Harvey, BC and García Quirós, I and Nicola, GG and Elvira, B and Almodóvar, A}, title = {Mechanistic simulations predict that thermal and hydrological effects of climate change on Mediterranean trout cannot be offset by adaptive behaviour, evolution, and increased food production.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {693}, number = {}, pages = {133648}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133648}, pmid = {31634990}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Streamflow is a main driver of fish population dynamics and is projected to decrease in much of the northern hemisphere, especially in the Mediterranean region, due to climate change. However, predictions of future climate effects on cold-water freshwater fish populations have typically focused only on the ecological consequences of increasing temperatures, overlooking the concurrent and interacting effects of climate-driven changes in streamflow regimes. Here, we present simulations that contrasted the consequences of changes in thermal regime alone versus the combined effects of changes in thermal regime and streamflow for resident trout populations in distinct river types with different sensitivities to climatic change (low-altitude main river vs. high-altitude headwaters). We additionally assessed the buffering effect of increased food production that may be linked to warming. We used an eco-genetic individual-based model that integrates the behavioural and physiological effects of extrinsic environmental drivers -temperature and flow- with intrinsic dynamics -density-dependence, phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary responses - across the entire trout life cycle, with Mediterranean brown trout Salmo trutta as the model species. Our simulations indicated that: (1) Hydrological change is a critical dimension of climate change for the persistence of trout populations, in that neither river type supported viable populations under strong rates of flow change, even under scenarios of increased food production. (2) Climate-change-related environmental change most affects the largest, oldest trout via increased metabolic costs and decreased energy inputs. In both river types, populations persisted under extreme warming alone but became dominated by younger, smaller fish. (3) Density-dependent, plastic and evolutionary changes in phenology and life-history traits provide trout populations with important resilience to warming, but strong concurrent shifts in streamflow could exceed the buffering conferred by such intrinsic dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid31632221, year = {2019}, author = {Kim, KH and Koh, YJ}, title = {An Integrated Modeling Approach for Predicting Potential Epidemics of Bacterial Blossom Blight in Kiwifruit under Climate Change.}, journal = {The plant pathology journal}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {459-472}, doi = {10.5423/PPJ.OA.05.2019.0140}, pmid = {31632221}, issn = {1598-2254}, abstract = {The increasing variation in climatic conditions under climate change directly influences plant-microbe interactions. To account for as many variables as possible that may play critical roles in such interactions, the use of an integrated modeling approach is necessary. Here, we report for the first time a local impact assessment and adaptation study of future epidemics of kiwifruit bacterial blossom blight (KBB) in Jeonnam province, Korea, using an integrated modeling approach. This study included a series of models that integrated both the phenological responses of kiwifruit and the epidemiological responses of KBB to climatic factors with a 1 km resolution, under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Our results indicate that the area suitable for kiwifruit cultivation in Jeonnam province will increase and that the flowering date of kiwifruit will occur increasingly earlier, mainly due to the warming climate. Future epidemics of KBB during the predicted flowering periods were estimated using the Pss-KBB Risk Model over the predicted suitable cultivation regions, and we found location-specific, periodic outbreaks of KBB in the province through 2100. Here, we further suggest a potential, scientifically-informed, long-term adaptation strategy using a cultivar of kiwifruit with a different maturity period to relieve the pressures of future KBB risk. Our results clearly show one of the possible options for a local impact assessment and adaptation study using multiple models in an integrated way.}, }
@article {pmid31631949, year = {2019}, author = {Hu, X and Sejas, SA and Cai, M and Taylor, PC and Deng, Y and Yang, S}, title = {Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim.}, journal = {Climate dynamics}, volume = {52}, number = {3-4}, pages = {2005-2016}, doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4232-1}, pmid = {31631949}, issn = {0930-7575}, abstract = {The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.}, }
@article {pmid31628563, year = {2019}, author = {Pliūra, A and Jankauskienė, J and Bajerkevičienė, G and Lygis, V and Suchockas, V and Labokas, J and Verbylaitė, R}, title = {Response of juveniles of seven forest tree species and their populations to different combinations of simulated climate change-related stressors: spring-frost, heat, drought, increased UV radiation and ozone concentration under elevated CO2 level.}, journal = {Journal of plant research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10265-019-01146-2}, pmid = {31628563}, issn = {1618-0860}, support = {NMP No SIT-4/2015//Lietuvos Mokslo Taryba/ ; }, abstract = {The study aimed to assess response of juvenile progeny of seven forest tree species, Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies, Betula pendula, Alnus glutinosa, Populus tremula, Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior, and their populations to different combinations of climate change-related multiple stressors, simulated in a phytotron under elevated CO2 concentration: (1) heat + elevated humidity (HW); (2) heat + frost + drought (HFD); (3) heat + elevated humidity + increased UV-B radiation doses + elevated ozone concentration (HWUO); and (4) heat + frost + drought + increased UV-B radiation doses + elevated ozone concentration (HFDUO). Effects of the complex treatments, species and species-by-treatment interaction were highly significant in most of the growth, physiological and biochemical traits studied, indicating general and species-specific responses to the applied treatments. For deciduous trees, height increment was much higher under HW treatment than in ambient conditions (control) indicating a positive effect of elevated temperature and better water and CO2 availability. HFD treatment caused reduction of height increment in comparison to HW treatment in most species except for Q. robur and F. excelsior which benefited from lower humidity. Treatments HWUO and HFDUO have caused substantial damages to leaves in fast growing deciduous P. tremula, A. glutinosa and B. pendula, and resulted in their lower height increment than in HW treatment, although it was the same or even higher than that in the control. Rates of photosynthesis in most of the tree species were greatest in HFD treatment. A lower photosynthetic rate (compared to control) was observed in B. pendula, P. tremula and F. excelsior in HW treatment, and in most species-in HWUO treatment. Compared to control, intrinsic water use efficiency in all treatments was significantly lower in P. tremula, A. glutinosa and F. excelsior and higher in conifers P. sylvestris and P. abies. Significant population-by-treatment interactions found for most traits showed variation in response of populations, implying that this reflects adaptive potential of each tree species. The observed responses may not always be considered as adaptive as deteriorating growth of some populations or species may lead to loss of their competitiveness thus compromising regeneration and natural successions.}, }
@article {pmid31628358, year = {2019}, author = {Sun, C and Jiang, Z and Li, W and Hou, Q and Li, L}, title = {Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {14982}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-50036-z}, pmid = {31628358}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The 1.5 °C global warming target proposed by the Paris Agreement has raised worldwide attention and inspired numerous studies to assess corresponding climate changes for different regions of the world. But CMIP5 models based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are 'transient simulations' and cannot reflect the response of climate warming stabilized at 1.5 °C. The current work presents an assessment of extreme temperature changes in China with simulations from 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project specially conceived for global warming levels stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. When global warming stabilizes at 1.5 °C/2.0 °C, the areal-mean temperature for whole China increases by about 0.94 °C/1.59 °C (relative to present period, taken from 2006-2015). Notable increase regions are mainly found in Northwest and Northeast-North China, but warm spell duration increases mostly in Southeast China. The effect of the additional 0.5 °C warming is particularly investigated and compared between the transient and stabilized simulations. Changes of mean and extreme temperature are larger in transient simulations than in stabilized simulations. The uncertainty range is also narrower in stabilized simulations. Under stabilized global warming scenario, extreme hot event with return period of 100 years in the present climate becomes event occurring every 4.79 (1.5 °C warming level) and 1.56 years (2.0 °C warming level), extreme cold event with return period of 10 years becomes event occurring every 67 years under 1.5 °C warming and is unlikely to occur under 2.0 °C warming. For geographic distribution, the occurrence probabilities of extreme (hot and cold) events mainly change in the Tibetan Plateau, and the extreme cold events also change in Northeast and Southeast China.}, }
@article {pmid31627393, year = {2019}, author = {Junk, J and Goergen, K and Krein, A}, title = {Future Heat Waves in Different European Capitals Based on Climate Change Indicators.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {20}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16203959}, pmid = {31627393}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves have shown substantial negative impacts on public health. At the same time, climate change towards increasing air temperatures throughout Europe will foster such extreme events, leading to the population being more exposed to them and societies becoming more vulnerable. Based on two climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5) we analysed the frequency and intensity of heat waves for three capital cities in Europe representing a North-South transect (London, Luxembourg, Rome). We used indices proposed by the Expert Team on Sector-Specific Climate Indices of the World Meteorological Organization to analyze the number of heat waves, the number of days that contribute to heat waves, the length of the longest heat waves, as well as the mean temperature during heat waves. The threshold for the definition of heat waves is calculated based on a reference period of 30 years for each of the three cities, allowing for a direct comparison of the projected changes between the cities. Changes in the projected air temperature between a reference period (1971-2000) and three future periods (2001-2030 near future, 2031-2060 middle future, and 2061-2090 far future) are statistically significant for all three cities and both emission scenarios. Considerable similarities could be identified for the different heat wave indices. This directly affects the risk of the exposed population and might also negatively influence food security and water supply.}, }
@article {pmid31626756, year = {2019}, author = {Williams, JA and Kao, JY and Omary, MB}, title = {How can individuals and the GI community reduce climate change?.}, journal = {Gastroenterology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1053/j.gastro.2019.10.013}, pmid = {31626756}, issn = {1528-0012}, }
@article {pmid31625511, year = {2019}, author = {Godinho, MA and Murthy, S and Ali Mohammed, C}, title = {Academic health policy debates for local climate change leadership.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {10}, pages = {e407}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30188-3}, pmid = {31625511}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid31624550, year = {2019}, author = {Brown, DJ and Donner, DM and Ribic, CA and Bocetti, CI}, title = {Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {18}, pages = {10263-10276}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5547}, pmid = {31624550}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.}, }
@article {pmid31624326, year = {2019}, author = {Naoe, S and Tayasu, I and Sakai, Y and Masaki, T and Kobayashi, K and Nakajima, A and Sato, Y and Yamazaki, K and Kiyokawa, H and Koike, S}, title = {Downhill seed dispersal by temperate mammals: a potential threat to plant escape from global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {14932}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-51376-6}, pmid = {31624326}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {15K18718//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; 17H00797//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; 17H05031//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; 25291101//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; 16H02524//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; 25241026//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; 17H00797//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; 17H00797//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; 25241026//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; }, abstract = {Vertical seed dispersal, i.e. seed dispersal towards a higher or lower altitude, is considered a critical process for plant escape from climate change. However, studies exploring vertical seed dispersal are scarce, and thus, its direction, frequency, and mechanisms are little known. In the temperate zone, evaluating vertical seed dispersal of animal-dispersed plants fruiting in autumn and/or winter is essential considering the dominance of such plants in temperate forests. We hypothesized that their seeds are dispersed towards lower altitudes because of the downhill movement of frugivorous animals following the autumn-to-winter phenology of their food plants which proceeds from the mountain tops to the foot in the temperate zone. We evaluated the vertical seed dispersal of the autumn-fruiting wild kiwi, Actinidia arguta, which is dispersed by temperate mammals. We collected dispersed seeds from mammal faeces in the Kanto Mountains of central Japan and estimated the distance of vertical seed dispersal using the oxygen isotope ratios of the dispersed seeds. We found the intensive downhill seed dispersal of wild kiwi by all seed dispersers, except the raccoon dog (bear: mean -393.1 m; marten: -245.3 m; macaque: -98.5 m; and raccoon dog: +4.5 m). Mammals with larger home ranges dispersed seeds longer towards the foot of the mountains. Furthermore, we found that seeds produced at higher altitudes were dispersed a greater distance towards the foot of the mountains. Altitudinal gradients in autumn-to-winter plant phenology and other mountain characteristics, i.e. larger surface areas and more attractive human crops at lower altitudes compared to higher altitudes, were considered drivers of downhill seed dispersal via animal movement. Strong downhill seed dispersal by mammals suggests that populations of autumn-to-winter fruiting plants dispersed by animals may not be able to sufficiently escape from current global warming in the temperate zone.}, }
@article {pmid31623312, year = {2019}, author = {Sathyendranath, S and Brewin, RJW and Brockmann, C and Brotas, V and Calton, B and Chuprin, A and Cipollini, P and Couto, AB and Dingle, J and Doerffer, R and Donlon, C and Dowell, M and Farman, A and Grant, M and Groom, S and Horseman, A and Jackson, T and Krasemann, H and Lavender, S and Martinez-Vicente, V and Mazeran, C and Mélin, F and Moore, TS and Müller, D and Regner, P and Roy, S and Steele, CJ and Steinmetz, F and Swinton, J and Taberner, M and Thompson, A and Valente, A and Zühlke, M and Brando, VE and Feng, H and Feldman, G and Franz, BA and Frouin, R and Gould, RW and Hooker, SB and Kahru, M and Kratzer, S and Mitchell, BG and Muller-Karger, FE and Sosik, HM and Voss, KJ and Werdell, J and Platt, T}, title = {An Ocean-Colour Time Series for Use in Climate Studies: The Experience of the Ocean-Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI).}, journal = {Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {19}, number = {19}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/s19194285}, pmid = {31623312}, issn = {1424-8220}, support = {4000101437/10/I-LG//European Space Agency/ ; }, abstract = {Ocean colour is recognised as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS); and spectrally-resolved water-leaving radiances (or remote-sensing reflectances) in the visible domain, and chlorophyll-a concentration are identified as required ECV products. Time series of the products at the global scale and at high spatial resolution, derived from ocean-colour data, are key to studying the dynamics of phytoplankton at seasonal and inter-annual scales; their role in marine biogeochemistry; the global carbon cycle; the modulation of how phytoplankton distribute solar-induced heat in the upper layers of the ocean; and the response of the marine ecosystem to climate variability and change. However, generating a long time series of these products from ocean-colour data is not a trivial task: algorithms that are best suited for climate studies have to be selected from a number that are available for atmospheric correction of the satellite signal and for retrieval of chlorophyll-a concentration; since satellites have a finite life span, data from multiple sensors have to be merged to create a single time series, and any uncorrected inter-sensor biases could introduce artefacts in the series, e.g., different sensors monitor radiances at different wavebands such that producing a consistent time series of reflectances is not straightforward. Another requirement is that the products have to be validated against in situ observations. Furthermore, the uncertainties in the products have to be quantified, ideally on a pixel-by-pixel basis, to facilitate applications and interpretations that are consistent with the quality of the data. This paper outlines an approach that was adopted for generating an ocean-colour time series for climate studies, using data from the MERIS (MEdium spectral Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) sensor of the European Space Agency; the SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide-Field-of-view Sensor) and MODIS-Aqua (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-Aqua) sensors from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (USA); and VIIRS (Visible and Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA). The time series now covers the period from late 1997 to end of 2018. To ensure that the products meet, as well as possible, the requirements of the user community, marine-ecosystem modellers, and remote-sensing scientists were consulted at the outset on their immediate and longer-term requirements as well as on their expectations of ocean-colour data for use in climate research. Taking the user requirements into account, a series of objective criteria were established, against which available algorithms for processing ocean-colour data were evaluated and ranked. The algorithms that performed best with respect to the climate user requirements were selected to process data from the satellite sensors. Remote-sensing reflectance data from MODIS-Aqua, MERIS, and VIIRS were band-shifted to match the wavebands of SeaWiFS. Overlapping data were used to correct for mean biases between sensors at every pixel. The remote-sensing reflectance data derived from the sensors were merged, and the selected in-water algorithm was applied to the merged data to generate maps of chlorophyll concentration, inherent optical properties at SeaWiFS wavelengths, and the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm. The merged products were validated against in situ observations. The uncertainties established on the basis of comparisons with in situ data were combined with an optical classification of the remote-sensing reflectance data using a fuzzy-logic approach, and were used to generate uncertainties (root mean square difference and bias) for each product at each pixel.}, }
@article {pmid31622344, year = {2019}, author = {Kaye, TN and Bahm, MA and Thorpe, AS and Gray, EC and Pfingsten, I and Waddell, C}, title = {Population extinctions driven by climate change, population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases inaccurate.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {e0210378}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0210378}, pmid = {31622344}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Loss of biological diversity through population extinctions is a global phenomenon that threatens many ecosystems. Managers often rely on databases of rare species locations to plan land use actions and conserve at-risk taxa, so it is crucial that the information they contain is accurate and dependable. However, small population sizes, long gaps between surveys, and climate change may be leading to undetected extinctions of many populations. We used repeated survey records for a rare but widespread orchid, Cypripedium fasciculatum (clustered lady's slipper), to model population extinction risk based on elevation, population size, and time between observations. Population size and elevation were negatively associated with extinction, while extinction probability increased with time between observations. We interpret population losses at low elevations as a potential signal of climate change impacts. We used this model to estimate the probability of persistence of populations across California and Oregon, and found that 39%-52% of the 2415 populations reported in databases from this region are likely extinct. Managers should be aware that the number of populations of rare species in their databases is potentially an overestimate, and consider resurveying these populations to document their presence and condition, with priority given to older reports of small populations, especially those at low elevations or in other areas with high vulnerability to climate or land cover change.}, }
@article {pmid31621967, year = {2019}, author = {Johnson, RJ and Stenvinkel, P and Andrews, P and Sánchez-Lozada, LG and Nakagawa, T and Gaucher, E and Andres-Hernando, A and Rodriguez-Iturbe, B and Roncal Jimenez, C and Garcia, G and Kang, DH and Tolan, DR and Lanaspa, MA}, title = {Fructose Metabolism as a Common Evolutionary Pathway of Survival associated with climate change, food shortage and droughts.}, journal = {Journal of internal medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/joim.12993}, pmid = {31621967}, issn = {1365-2796}, abstract = {Mass extinctions occur frequently in natural history. While studies of animals that became extinct can be informative, it is the survivors that provide clues for mechanisms of adaptation when conditions are adverse. Here we describe a survival pathway used by many species as a means for providing adequate fuel and water, while also providing protection from a decrease in oxygen availability. Fructose, whether supplied in the diet (primarily fruits and honey), or endogenously (via activation of the polyol pathway) preferentially shifts the organism towards the storing of fuel (fat, glycogen) that can be used to provide energy and water at a later date. Fructose causes sodium retention and raises blood pressure and likely helped survival in the setting of dehydration or salt deprivation. By shifting energy production from the mitochondria to glycolysis, fructose reduced oxygen demands to aid survival in situations where oxygen availability is low. The actions of fructose are driven in part by vasopressin and the generation of uric acid. Twice in history, mutations occurred during periods of mass extinction that enhanced the activity of fructose to generate fat, with the first being a mutation in vitamin C metabolism during the Cretaceous Paleogene Extinction (65 million years ago) and the second being a mutation in uricase that occurred during the Middle Miocene Disruption (12-14 million years ago). Today, the excessive intake of fructose due to the availability of refined sugar and high fructose corn syrup is driving "burden of life style" diseases, including obesity, diabetes, and high blood pressure.}, }
@article {pmid31621228, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, YR and Xie, HM and Luo, HL and Yang, BY and Xiong, DJ}, title = {[Impacts of climate change on the distribution of Cymbidium kanran and the simulation of distribution pattern].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {3419-3425}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201910.011}, pmid = {31621228}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {In this study, data of 19 climatic factors were downloaded from the World Climate website. A total of 233 Cymbidium kanran distribution data were obtained through online review and field visits. Using MaxEnt model and combined with ArcGIS spatial analysis technology, the potential distribution area and distribution pattern of C. kanran in different periods were simulated, as well as its distribution during the last glacial period and 2070. The results showed that the curve indexes (AUC) value of the model training set was 0.957, and the AUC value of the verification set was 0.953, indicating that the prediction accuracy of the model was very high. The current distribution of C. kanran was mostly affected by the driest quarter precipitation, mean annual precipitation, wettest quarter precipitation, and mean annual temperature range. The contribution rates were 50.3%, 15.9%, 8.4% and 4.4%, respectively, with the total contribution rate being 79.0%. In the last glacial period, C. kanran mainly distributed in Wuyi Mountain, Luojing Mountain, Nanling, Taiwan's five major mountains and some hills in the northern part of Guangxi. From now to 2070, the distribution of C. kanran area will decrease by 22.4%. The southwestern part of Guangxi, the central part of Yunnan, and the junctions of Jiangxi, Fujian and Guangdong provinces will expand, while that in eastern Jiangxi, western Fujian, and the border between these two provinces will shrink.}, }
@article {pmid31618246, year = {2019}, author = {Bastin, JF and Clark, E and Elliott, T and Hart, S and van den Hoogen, J and Hordijk, I and Ma, H and Majumder, S and Manoli, G and Maschler, J and Mo, L and Routh, D and Yu, K and Zohner, CM and Crowther, TW}, title = {Correction: Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {e0224120}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0224120}, pmid = {31618246}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217592.].}, }
@article {pmid31618130, year = {2019}, author = {Torres, MA}, title = {Implications of ARTIC: Is This the Beginning of a Climate Change?.}, journal = {Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {JCO1902100}, doi = {10.1200/JCO.19.02100}, pmid = {31618130}, issn = {1527-7755}, }
@article {pmid31618008, year = {2019}, author = {Timonen, H and Karjalainen, P and Aalto, P and Saarikoski, S and Mylläri, F and Karvosenoja, N and Jalava, P and Asmi, E and Aakko-Saksa, P and Saukkonen, N and Laine, T and Saarnio, K and Niemelä, N and Enroth, J and Väkevä, M and Oyola, P and Pagels, J and Ntziachristos, L and Cordero, R and Kuittinen, N and Niemi, JV and Rönkkö, T}, title = {Adaptation of Black Carbon Footprint Concept Would Accelerate Mitigation of Global Warming.}, journal = {Environmental science & technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b05586}, pmid = {31618008}, issn = {1520-5851}, }
@article {pmid31617038, year = {2019}, author = {Fan, D and Zhong, H and Hu, B and Tian, Z and Sun, L and Fischer, G and Wang, X and Jiang, Z}, title = {Agro-ecological suitability assessment of Chinese Medicinal Yam under future climate change.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10653-019-00437-w}, pmid = {31617038}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {4160011367//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41671113//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 51761135024//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; AJYG-643BJQ//UK Met Office CSSP-China Programme/ ; 2018YFA0606204//National Key R& D Program of China/ ; 2016YFC0502702//National Key R& D Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {Chinese Medicinal Yam (CMY) has been prescribed as medicinal food for thousand years in China by Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) practitioners. Its medical benefits include nourishing the stomach and spleen to improve digestion, replenishing lung and kidney, etc., according to the TCM literature. As living standard rises and public health awareness improves in recent years, the potential medicinal benefits of CMY have attracted increasing attention in China. It has been found that the observed climate change in last several decades, together with the change in economic structure, has driven significant shift in the pattern of the traditional CMY planting areas. To identify suitable planting area for CMY in the near future is critical for ensuring the quality and supply quantity of CMY, guiding the layout of CMY industry, and safeguarding the sustainable development of CMY resources for public health. In this study, we first collect 30-year records of CMY varieties and their corresponding phenology and agro-meteorological observations. We then consolidate these data and use them to enrich and update the eco-physiological parameters of CMY in the agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model. The updated CMY varieties and AEZ model are validated using the historical planting area and production under observed climate conditions. After the successful validation, we use the updated AEZ model to simulate the potential yield of CMY and identify the suitable planting regions under future climate projections in China. This study shows that regions with high ecological similarity to the genuine and core producing areas of CMY mainly distribute in eastern Henan, southeastern Hebei, and western Shandong. The climate suitability of these areas will be improved due to global warming in the next 50 years, and therefore, they will continue to be the most suitable CMY planting regions.}, }
@article {pmid31615904, year = {2019}, author = {Bongaarts, J and Sitruk-Ware, R}, title = {Climate change and contraception.}, journal = {BMJ sexual & reproductive health}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {233-235}, doi = {10.1136/bmjsrh-2019-200399}, pmid = {31615904}, issn = {2515-2009}, }
@article {pmid31611719, year = {2019}, author = {Reynolds, JL}, title = {Solar geoengineering to reduce climate change: a review of governance proposals.}, journal = {Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {475}, number = {2229}, pages = {20190255}, doi = {10.1098/rspa.2019.0255}, pmid = {31611719}, issn = {1364-5021}, abstract = {Although solar geoengineering (alternatively 'solar radiation management' or 'solar radiation modification') appears to offer a potentially effective, inexpensive and technologically feasible additional response to climate change, it would pose serious physical risks and social challenges. Governance of its research, development and deployment is thus salient. This article reviews proposals for governing solar geoengineering. Its research may warrant dedicated governance to facilitate effectiveness and to reduce direct and socially mediated risks. Because states are not substantially engaging with solar geoengineering, non-state actors can play important governance roles. Although the concern that solar geoengineering would harmfully lessen abatement of greenhouse gas emissions is widespread, what can be done to reduce such displacement remains unclear. A moratorium on outdoor activities that would surpass certain scales is often endorsed, but an effective one would require resolving some critical, difficult details. In the long term, how to legitimately make decisions regarding whether, when and how solar geoengineering would be used is central, and suggestions how to do so diverge. Most proposals to govern commercial actors, who could provide goods and services for solar geoengineering, focus on intellectual property policy. Compensation for possible harm from outdoor activities could be through liability or a compensation fund. The review closes with suggested lines of future inquiry.}, }
@article {pmid31610815, year = {2019}, author = {Garrido, R and Bacigalupo, A and Peña-Gómez, F and Bustamante, RO and Cattan, PE and Gorla, DE and Botto-Mahan, C}, title = {Potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two wild vectors of Chagas disease in Chile: Mepraia spinolai and Mepraia gajardoi.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {478}, doi = {10.1186/s13071-019-3744-9}, pmid = {31610815}, issn = {1756-3305}, support = {1170367//CONICYT-FONDECYT/ ; 1140521//CONICYT-FONDECYT/ ; 1180940//CONICYT-FONDECYT/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Mepraia gajardoi and Mepraia spinolai are endemic triatomine vector species of Trypanosoma cruzi, a parasite that causes Chagas disease. These vectors inhabit arid, semiarid and Mediterranean areas of Chile. Mepraia gajardoi occurs from 18° to 25°S, and M. spinolai from 26° to 34°S. Even though both species are involved in T. cruzi transmission in the Pacific side of the Southern Cone of South America, no study has modelled their distributions at a regional scale. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the potential geographical distribution of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi under current and future climate scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: We used the Maxent algorithm to model the ecological niche of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi, estimating their potential distributions from current climate information and projecting their distributions to future climatic conditions under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Future predictions of suitability were constructed considering both higher and lower public health risk situations.<br><br>RESULTS: The current potential distributions of both species were broader than their known ranges. For both species, climate change projections for 2070 in RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios showed different results depending on the methodology used. The higher risk situation showed new suitable areas, but the lower risk situation modelled a net reduction in the future potential distribution areas of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The suitable areas for both species may be greater than currently known, generating new challenges in terms of vector control and prevention. Under future climate conditions, these species could modify their potential geographical range. Preventive measures to avoid accidental human vectorial transmission by wild vectors of T. cruzi become critical considering the uncertainty of future suitable areas projected in this study.}, }
@article {pmid31610448, year = {2019}, author = {Bujosa Bestard, A and Riera Font, A}, title = {Estimation of implicit discount rates for climate change adaptation policies.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {252}, number = {}, pages = {109671}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109671}, pmid = {31610448}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This article used evidence from tourists' willingness to pay (WTP) for a set of climate change adaptation policies to estimate implicit discount rates under different discounting structures. A choice experiment with two different split samples framed at two different time horizons was used to analyse how WTP changes as a function of the timing of the expected benefits. Results confirm that individuals are time sensitive to different horizons and provide support for the use of a very low discount rate in the evaluation of policies having effects in the long and very long run and show that the social acceptability of climate change (CC) adaptation policies can be affected by the timing of the benefits and the use of one or another discounting model.}, }
@article {pmid31605624, year = {2019}, author = {Giejsztowt, J and Classen, AT and Deslippe, JR}, title = {Climate change and invasion may synergistically affect native plant reproduction.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2913}, pmid = {31605624}, issn = {1939-9170}, abstract = {Global change drivers can interact in synergistic ways, yet the interactive effect of global change drivers, such as climatic warming and species invasions, on plant pollination are poorly represented in experimental studies. We paired manipulative experiments to probe two mechanistic pathways through which plant invasion and warming may alter phenology and reproduction of native plant species. In the first, we tested how experimental warming (+1.7°C) modulated flowering phenology and how this affected flowering overlap between a native plant (Dracophyllum subulatum) and an invasive plant (Calluna vulgaris L.). In the second experiment we explored how variation in the ratio of native to invasive flowers, and the overall quantity of resources in a floral patch, affected the reproduction of the native species. We hypothesised that the flowering overlap of native and invasive plants would be altered by warming, given that invading plants typically exhibit greater phenological plasticity than native plants. Further, we hypothesised that pollination of native plant flowers would decrease in floral patches dominated by invasive plant flowers, but that this effect would depend on total floral density in the patch. As predicted, the invasive plant had a stronger phenological response to experimental warming than the native plant, resulting in increased flowering overlap between the native the invasive plants. There was a four-fold increase in the number of native flowers co-flowering with high densities of invasive flowers suggesting native plant competition for pollinators with invasive plants under a warmed climate. In the second experiment, we found depressed seed weights of the native species in high density floral patches that were dominated by invasive flowers relative to high density floral patches dominated by native flowers. At low floral densities, seed weight of native plants was unaffected by invasion. Together, these results demonstrate that by increasing their phenological overlap, warming may enhance the magnitude of existing competition for pollination exerted by an invasive plant on a native plant, particularly in plant patches with high floral density. Our results illustrate a novel pathway through which global change drivers can operate synergistically to alter an important ecosystem service - pollination.}, }
@article {pmid31604931, year = {2019}, author = {Yin, Q and Wang, J and Ren, Z and Li, J and Guo, Y}, title = {Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4640}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-12663-y}, pmid = {31604931}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality relationship. It reflects human adaptability to local climate. The existing MMT estimates were usually based on case studies in data rich regions, and limited evidence about MMT was available at a global scale. It is still unclear what the most significant driver of MMT is and how MMT will change under global climate change. Here, by analysing MMTs in 420 locations covering six continents (Antarctica was excluded) in the world, we found that although the MMT changes geographically, it is very close to the local most frequent temperature (MFT) in the same period. The association between MFT and MMT is not changed when we adjust for latitude and study year. Based on the MFT~MMT association, we estimate and map the global distribution of MMTs in the present (2010s) and the future (2050s) for the first time.}, }
@article {pmid31604877, year = {2019}, author = {Costain, F}, title = {'Livestock are not the global warming enemy'.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {185}, number = {14}, pages = {449}, doi = {10.1136/vr.l5963}, pmid = {31604877}, issn = {2042-7670}, abstract = {ffinlo Costain argues that the focus on ruminant methane in causing global warming is ill-informed and in fact restoration of grass-based systems can result in net zero emissions from UK agriculture by 2030.}, }
@article {pmid31604209, year = {2019}, author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Jacob, D and Taylor, M and Guillén Bolaños, T and Bindi, M and Brown, S and Camilloni, IA and Diedhiou, A and Djalante, R and Ebi, K and Engelbrecht, F and Guiot, J and Hijioka, Y and Mehrotra, S and Hope, CW and Payne, AJ and Pörtner, HO and Seneviratne, SI and Thomas, A and Warren, R and Zhou, G}, title = {The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {365}, number = {6459}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw6974}, pmid = {31604209}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have led to a global mean surface temperature 1.0°C higher than during the pre-industrial period. We expand on the recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C and review the additional risks associated with higher levels of warming, each having major implications for multiple geographies, climates, and ecosystems. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C would be required to maintain substantial proportions of ecosystems and would have clear benefits for human health and economies. These conclusions are relevant for people everywhere, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where the escalation of climate-related risks may prevent the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.}, }
@article {pmid31604183, year = {2019}, author = {Lochhead, K and Ghafghazi, S and LeMay, V and Bull, GQ}, title = {Examining the vulnerability of localized reforestation strategies to climate change at a macroscale.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {252}, number = {}, pages = {109625}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109625}, pmid = {31604183}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change is altering the nature and condition of vast areas in the boreal forest of Canada. There are great uncertainties concerning impacts on the forest, along with how policy and economic responses will translate effectively between local and macroscales. In particular, planting tree seedlings with improved characteristics following harvesting is one localized response strategy considered essential by policymakers. However, planting costs limit the macroscale adoption of this strategy which may result in trade-offs between profitability and reducing vulnerability. In this study, we developed a decision support tool (called Q3) that links stand-level decision making to the macroscale and applied this model to investigate the financial attractiveness of planting improved stocks under one climate change threat, drought-induced seedling mortality. Using several scenarios describing planting effort, improved yields and risk to drought-induced seedling mortality, we showed that adopting improved planting stock strategies across a macroscale (i.e., the western Boreal forest of Canada) can be financially attractive when considering stand-establishment constraints and drought risk. In particular, a proactive approach can be less costly than a reactive approach to drought-induced seedling mortality. To maximize profits, the forestry industry would need to prioritize younger stands closer to processing mills that had a smaller percentage of conifer growing stocks prior to harvest. This research improves the linkages between macroscale policies and forest management activities critical for recommending future development paths that the forestry industry could follow to decrease climate change vulnerabilities.}, }
@article {pmid31604182, year = {2019}, author = {Duncan, B and Johnson, KD and Suchanek, TH and Brown, M and Largier, JL}, title = {Developing ocean climate change indicators for the north-central California coast and ocean.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {252}, number = {}, pages = {109343}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109343}, pmid = {31604182}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The Ocean Climate Indicators Project, developed for the Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (GFNMS), yielded the first set of physical and biological ocean climate indicators specifically developed for the north-central California coast and ocean region, which extends from Point Arena to Point Año Nuevo and includes the ocean shorelines of the San Francisco metropolitan area. This case study produced a series of physical and biological indicator categories through a best professional judgment (BPJ) process with an interdisciplinary group of over 50 regional research scientists and marine resource managers from a wide range of state and federal agencies, NGOs, and universities. A working group of research scientists and marine resource managers used this set of ocean climate indicators to develop the Ocean Climate Indicators Monitoring Inventory and Plan. The Plan includes monitoring goals and objectives common for eight physical and four biological indicators; specific goals for each indicator; monitoring strategies and activities; an inventory of available monitoring data; opportunities for expanding or improving existing or new monitoring approaches; and case studies with specific examples of the indicators' utility for natural resource management and basic scientific research. Beyond developing indicators that support effective science-based management decisions, this scalable process established and strengthened mutually beneficial connections between scientists and managers, resulting in indicators that had broad support of project participants, were quickly adopted by the GFNMS, and could be used by managers and scientists from this region and beyond.}, }
@article {pmid31598960, year = {2019}, author = {Logan, ML and Minnaar, IA and Keegan, KM and Clusella-Trullas, S}, title = {The evolutionary potential of an insect invader under climate change.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/evo.13862}, pmid = {31598960}, issn = {1558-5646}, abstract = {Although the impacts of climate change and invasive species are typically studied in isolation, they likely interact to reduce the viability of plant and animal populations. Indeed, invasive species, by definition, have succeeded in areas outside of their native range, and may therefore have higher adaptive capacity relative to native species. Nevertheless, the genetic architecture of the thermal niche, which sets a limit to the potential for populations to evolve rapidly under climate change, has never been measured in an invasive species in its invasive range. Here, we estimate the genetic architecture of thermal performance in the harlequin beetle (Harmonia axyridis), a Central Asian species that has invaded four continents. We measured thermal performance curves in more than 400 third generation offspring from a paternal half-sib breeding experiment and analyzed the genetic variance-covariance matrix. We show that while the critical thermal limits in this species have an additive genetic basis, most components of the thermal performance curve have low heritability. Moreover, we found evidence that genetic correlations may constrain the evolution of beetles under climate change. Our results suggest that some invasive species may have limited evolutionary capacity under climate change, despite their initial success in colonizing novel environments. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31598927, year = {2019}, author = {Tiba, S}, title = {A non-linear assessment of the urbanization and climate change nexus: the African context.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-06475-2}, pmid = {31598927}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The climate change issue becomes more challenging with the increasing pace of urbanization in Africa. For this purpose, we attempt to examine the relationship urbanization and CO2 emissions by applying the panel smooth transition regression model for 47 African countries during the spanning time 1990-2014. Our results reveal that the nexus between urbanization and CO2 emissions is non-linear. Our highlights recorded a monotonic nexus confirming the existence of the EKC hypothesis for the urbanization. In addition, our empirical results determine the threshold of the transition which takes the value of 42.01. Moreover, the estimated slope parameter implies that the nexus between urbanization and CO2 emissions smoothly switches from one regime to another regime but relatively rapid. Hence, it is extremely important to understand this nexus to take seriously climate change vulnerabilities. Indeed, the African economies are invited to establish efficiently the low-carbon and reduce the spatial heterogeneity to generate the green development path and provide effective structures for a platform for sustainable cities.}, }
@article {pmid31598871, year = {2019}, author = {Finkel, ML}, title = {A call for action: integrating climate change into the medical school curriculum.}, journal = {Perspectives on medical education}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s40037-019-00541-8}, pmid = {31598871}, issn = {2212-277X}, }
@article {pmid31598535, year = {2019}, author = {Vogel, MM and Zscheischler, J and Wartenburger, R and Dee, D and Seneviratne, SI}, title = {Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human-Induced Climate Change.}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {692-703}, doi = {10.1029/2019EF001189}, pmid = {31598535}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {Extremely high temperatures pose an immediate threat to humans and ecosystems. In recent years, many regions on land and in the ocean experienced heat waves with devastating impacts that would have been highly unlikely without human-induced climate change. Impacts are particularly severe when heat waves occur in regions with high exposure of people or crops. The recent 2018 spring-to-summer season was characterized by several major heat and dry extremes. On daily average between May and July 2018 about 22% of the populated and agricultural areas north of 30° latitude experienced concurrent hot temperature extremes. Events of this type were unprecedented prior to 2010, while similar conditions were experienced in the 2010 and 2012 boreal summers. Earth System Model simulations of present-day climate, that is, at around +1 °C global warming, also display an increase of concurrent heat extremes. Based on Earth System Model simulations, we show that it is virtually certain (using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calibrated uncertainty language) that the 2018 north hemispheric concurrent heat events would not have occurred without human-induced climate change. Our results further reveal that the average high-exposure area projected to experience concurrent warm and hot spells in the Northern Hemisphere increases by about 16% per additional +1 °C of global warming. A strong reduction in fossil fuel emissions is paramount to reduce the risks of unprecedented global-scale heat wave impacts.}, }
@article {pmid31597935, year = {2019}, author = {Veron, S and Mouchet, M and Govaerts, R and Haevermans, T and Pellens, R}, title = {Vulnerability to climate change of islands worldwide and its impact on the tree of life.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {14471}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-51107-x}, pmid = {31597935}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Island systems are among the most vulnerable to climate change, which is predicted to induce shifts in temperature, rainfall and/or sea levels. Our aim was: (i) to map the relative vulnerability of islands to each of these threats from climate change on a worldwide scale; (ii) to estimate how island vulnerability would impact phylogenetic diversity. We focused on monocotyledons, a major group of flowering plants that includes taxa of important economic value such as palms, grasses, bananas, taro. Islands that were vulnerable to climate change were found at all latitudes, e.g. in Australia, Indonesia, the Caribbean, Pacific countries, the United States, although they were more common near the equator. The loss of highly vulnerable islands would lead to relatively low absolute loss of plant phylogenetic diversity. However, these losses tended to be higher than expected by chance alone even in some highly vulnerable insular systems. This suggests the possible collapse of deep and long branches in vulnerable islands. Measuring the vulnerability of each island is a first step towards a risk analysis to identify where the impacts of climate change are the most likely and what may be their consequences on biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid31593951, year = {2019}, author = {Viana Ferreira, AM and Marajó, L and Matoso, DA and Ribeiro, LB and Feldberg, E}, title = {Chromosomal Mapping of Rex Retrotransposons in Tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum Cuvier, 1818) Exposed to Three Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Cytogenetic and genome research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1159/000502926}, pmid = {31593951}, issn = {1424-859X}, abstract = {Greenhouse gas emissions are known to influence the planet's temperature, mainly due to human activities. To allow hypothesis testing, as well as to seek viable alternatives for mitigation, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested 3 main scenarios for changes projected for the year 2100. In this paper, we subjected Colossoma macropomum Cuvier, 1818 (tambaqui) individuals in a microcosm to IPCC scenarios B1 (mild), A1B (intermediate), and A2 (extreme) to test possible impacts on their genome. We found chromosome heterochromatinization in specimens exposed to the A2 scenario, where terminal blocks and interstitial bands were detected on several chromosome pairs. The behavior of Rex1 and Rex3 sequences differed between the test scenarios. Hybridization of Rex1 resulted in diffuse signals which showed a gradual increase in the tested scenarios. For Rex3, an increase was observed in the A2 scenario with blocks on several chromosomes, some of which coincided with heterochromatin. Heterochromatinization is an epigenetic process, which may have occurred as a mechanism for regulating Rex3 activity. The signal pattern of Rex6 did not change, suggesting that other mechanisms are acting to regulate its activity.}, }
@article {pmid31593684, year = {2019}, author = {Catullo, RA and Llewelyn, J and Phillips, BL and Moritz, CC}, title = {The Potential for Rapid Evolution under Anthropogenic Climate Change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {29}, number = {19}, pages = {R996-R1007}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.08.028}, pmid = {31593684}, issn = {1879-0445}, abstract = {Understanding how natural populations will respond to rapid anthropogenic climate change is one of the greatest challenges for ecologists and evolutionary biologists. Much research has focussed on whether physiological traits can evolve quickly enough under rapidly increasing temperatures. While the simple Breeder's equation helps to understand how extreme temperatures and genetic variation might drive within-population evolution under climate change, it does not consider two key areas: how different forms of phenotypic plasticity interact and variation among populations. Plasticity can modify the exposure to climatic extremes and the strength of selection from those extremes, while differences among populations provide adaptive diversity not apparent within them. Here, we focus on terrestrial vertebrates and, with a case study on a tropical lizard, demonstrate the complex interplay between spatial, genetic and plastic contributions to variation in climate-relevant physiological traits. We identify several problems that need to be better understood: which traits are under selection in a changing climate; the different forms of plasticity relevant to population persistence and rapid evolution; plastic versus genetic contributions to geographic variation in climate-associated traits and whether plasticity can be harnessed to promote persistence of species. Given ongoing uncertainties around whether natural populations can evolve rapidly enough to persist, we advocate the use of field trials aimed at increasing rates of adaptation, especially in systems known to be strongly impacted by human-driven changes in climate.}, }
@article {pmid31593683, year = {2019}, author = {Clayton, S}, title = {Psychology and climate change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {29}, number = {19}, pages = {R992-R995}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.07.017}, pmid = {31593683}, issn = {1879-0445}, abstract = {Research and theory from psychology are increasingly being utilized to understand potential impacts of climate change and to promote positive responses. In this Primer, Clayton describes three main areas in which psychological research provides relevant insights, and provides suggestions for encouraging mitigation and adaptation behavior.}, }
@article {pmid31593661, year = {2019}, author = {He, Q and Silliman, BR}, title = {Climate Change, Human Impacts, and Coastal Ecosystems in the Anthropocene.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {29}, number = {19}, pages = {R1021-R1035}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.08.042}, pmid = {31593661}, issn = {1879-0445}, abstract = {Coastal zones, the world's most densely populated regions, are increasingly threatened by climate change stressors - rising and warming seas, intensifying storms and droughts, and acidifying oceans. Although coastal zones have been affected by local human activities for centuries, how local human impacts and climate change stressors may interact to jeopardize coastal ecosystems remains poorly understood. Here we provide a review on interactions between climate change and local human impacts (e.g., interactions between sea level rise and anthropogenic land subsidence, which are forcing Indonesia to relocate its capital city) in the coastal realm. We highlight how these interactions can impair and, at times, decimate a variety of coastal ecosystems, and examine how understanding and incorporating these interactions can reshape theory on climate change impacts and ecological resilience. We further discuss implications of interactions between climate change and local human impacts for coastal conservation and elucidate the context when and where local conservation is more likely to buffer the impacts of climate change, attempting to help reconcile the growing debate about whether to shift much of the investment in local conservation to global CO2 emission reductions. Our review underscores that an enhanced understanding of interactions between climate change and local human impacts is of profound importance to improving predictions of climate change impacts, devising climate-smart conservation actions, and helping enhance adaption of coastal societies to climate change in the Anthropocene.}, }
@article {pmid31592932, year = {2019}, author = {Kuehn, L and Balbus, J}, title = {Addressing the health, safety, welfare, and dignity of all humans: PAs and climate change.}, journal = {JAAPA : official journal of the American Academy of Physician Assistants}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/01.JAA.0000586340.96748.c3}, pmid = {31592932}, issn = {1547-1896}, }
@article {pmid31591737, year = {2019}, author = {Bury, SM and Wenzel, M and Woodyatt, L}, title = {Against the odds: Hope as an antecedent of support for climate change action.}, journal = {The British journal of social psychology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e12343}, doi = {10.1111/bjso.12343}, pmid = {31591737}, issn = {2044-8309}, abstract = {While individuals are often viewed as rational actors, engaging in action that promises success, sometimes they act despite low odds. We report two studies that investigate hope as a motivational resource during times when the odds of success seem low. We argue that when people are personally invested in the cause, their hope leaps with emerging possibility (low likelihood) of a positive outcome, but linearly aligns with likelihood for more probable outcomes (i.e., hope is a cubic function of likelihood). Crucially, hope then motivates support for collective action, in this case support for climate action, thus illuminating the possible antecedents for collective action against the odds. In Study 1, with a highly invested sample, hope mediated the relationship between cubic likelihood and support for climate change action. Study 2 extended these findings, showing that for individuals strongly invested in the outcome (but not for those less invested), hope arose with possibility but not probability of success, leading to greater support for climate change action. Hope's unique motivational role arises when the odds are low, when success is only possible rather than probable. These then represent the conditions that facilitate support for collective action against the odds.}, }
@article {pmid31588364, year = {2018}, author = {Grabow, M and Bryan, T and Checovich, M and Converse, A and Middlecamp, C and Mooney, M and Torres, E and Younkin, S and Barrett, B}, title = {Mindfulness and Climate Change Action: A Feasibility Study.}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/su10051508}, pmid = {31588364}, issn = {2071-1050}, abstract = {Pro-environmental behaviors and the cultural shifts that can accompany these may offer solutions to the consequences of a changing climate. Mindfulness has been proposed as a strategy to initiate these types of behaviors. In 2017, we pilot-tested Mindful Climate Action (MCA), an eight-week adult education program that delivers energy use, climate change, and sustainability content in combination with training in mindfulness meditation, to 16 individuals living in Madison, WI. At baseline and at different times across the study period, we collected data regarding participants, household energy use, transportation, diet, and health and happiness. This pilot study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of the various MCA study practices including measurement tools, outcome assessment, curriculum and related educational materials, and especially the mindfulness-based climate action trainings. MCA was well-received by participants as evidenced by high adherence rate, high measures of participant satisfaction, and high participant response rate for surveys. In addition, we successfully demonstrated feasibility of the MCA program, and have estimated participant's individual carbon footprints related to diet, transportation, and household energy.}, }
@article {pmid31586158, year = {2019}, author = {Jansson, JK and Hofmockel, KS}, title = {Soil microbiomes and climate change.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41579-019-0265-7}, pmid = {31586158}, issn = {1740-1534}, abstract = {The soil microbiome governs biogeochemical cycling of macronutrients, micronutrients and other elements vital for the growth of plants and animal life. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change on soil microbiomes and the ecosystem services they provide present a grand challenge and major opportunity as we direct our research efforts towards one of the most pressing problems facing our planet. In this Review, we explore the current state of knowledge about the impacts of climate change on soil microorganisms in different climate-sensitive soil ecosystems, as well as potential ways that soil microorganisms can be harnessed to help mitigate the negative consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31586060, year = {2019}, author = {Nisa, CF and Bélanger, JJ and Schumpe, BM and Faller, DG}, title = {Meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials testing behavioural interventions to promote household action on climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4545}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-12457-2}, pmid = {31586060}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {No consensus exists regarding which are the most effective mechanisms to promote household action on climate change. We present a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials comprising 3,092,678 observations, which estimates the effects of behavioural interventions holding other factors constant. Here we show that behavioural interventions promote climate change mitigation to a very small degree while the intervention lasts (d = -0.093 95% CI -0.160, -0.055), with no evidence of sustained positive effects once the intervention ends. With the exception of recycling, most household mitigation behaviours show a low behavioural plasticity. The intervention with the highest average effect size is choice architecture (nudges) but this strategy has been tested in a limited number of behaviours. Our results do not imply behavioural interventions are less effective than alternative strategies such as financial incentives or regulations, nor exclude the possibility that behavioural interventions could have stronger effects when used in combination with alternative strategies.}, }
@article {pmid31585490, year = {2019}, author = {De Boeck, HJ and Bloor, JM and Aerts, R and Bahn, M and Beier, C and Emmett, BA and Estiarte, M and Grünzweig, JM and Halbritter, AH and Holub, P and Jentsch, A and Klem, K and Kreyling, J and Kröel-Dulay, G and Larsen, KS and Milcu, A and Roy, J and Sigurdsson, BD and Smith, MD and Sternberg, M and Vandvik, V and Wohlgemuth, T and Nijs, I and Knapp, AK}, title = {Understanding ecosystems of the future will require more than realistic climate change experiments - A response to Korell et al.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14854}, pmid = {31585490}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Critical examination of the approaches ecologists employ to understand complex ecological systems is integral to advancing our science. Recently, Korell et al. (2019) argued that climate change experiments would yield more relevant information on future functioning of ecosystems if the treatments imposed more closely reflected model-projected climate scenarios. To reach this conclusion, the authors evaluated 76 studies and found that changes in (manipulated) precipitation and air temperature generally did not match site-specific changes projected by Global Circulation Models.}, }
@article {pmid31585121, year = {2019}, author = {Rose Vineer, H and Baber, P and White, T and Morgan, ER}, title = {Reduced egg shedding in nematode-resistant ewes and projected epidemiological benefits under climate change.}, journal = {International journal for parasitology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijpara.2019.06.008}, pmid = {31585121}, issn = {1879-0135}, abstract = {Global livestock production is facing serious new challenges, including climate-driven changes in parasite epidemiology, and anthelmintic resistance, driving a need for non-chemotherapeutic methods of parasite control. Selecting for genetic resistance to gastrointestinal nematode infection could reduce reliance on chemical intervention and mitigate increases in parasite challenge due to climate change. Ewes of the composite Exlana breed with a range of estimated breeding values (EBVs) based on nematode faecal egg counts (FECs) were monitored during the peri-parturient period on two farms in southwestern England. Ewes with low EBVs (&quot;resistant&quot;) had lower FECs during the peri-parturient period than those with high EBVs (&quot;susceptible&quot;): the mean FEC was reduced by 23% and 34% on Farms 1 and 2, respectively, while the peak FEC was reduced by 30% and 37%, respectively. Neither EBV nor FEC were correlated with key performance indicators (estimated milk yield, measured indirectly using 8 week lamb weight, and ewe weight loss during lactation). Simulations predict that the reduced FECs of resistant ewes would result in a comparable reduction in infection pressure (arising from eggs shed by ewes) for their lambs. Furthermore, although the reduced FECs observed were modest, simulations predicted that selecting for nematode resistance in ewes could largely offset predicted future climate-driven increases in pasture infectivity arising from eggs contributed by these ewes. Selective breeding of the maternal line for nematode resistance therefore has potential epidemiological benefits by reducing pasture infectivity early in the grazing season and alleviating the need for anthelmintic treatment of ewes during the peri-parturient period, thus reducing selection pressure for anthelmintic resistance. These benefits are magnified under predicted future climate change. The maternal line warrants more attention in selective breeding programmes for nematode resistance.}, }
@article {pmid31584676, year = {2019}, author = {Castrillo, D and Rabuñal, E and Neira, N and Blanco, P}, title = {Oenological potential of non-Saccharomyces yeasts to mitigate effects of climate change in winemaking: impact on aroma and sensory profiles of Treixadura wines.}, journal = {FEMS yeast research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsyr/foz065}, pmid = {31584676}, issn = {1567-1364}, abstract = {The effects of climate change on wine include high alcohol content, low acidity and aroma imbalance. The potential of several non-Saccharomyces wine yeasts to mitigate these effects was evaluated by sequential fermentation of Treixadura grape must. Fermentations with only Saccharomyces cerevisiae ScXG3 and a spontaneous process were used as control assays. All yeast strains were obtained from the yeast collection of Estación de Viticulture e Enoloxía de Galicia (EVEGA), Galicia, Spain. Fermentation kinetics as well as yeast dynamics and implantation ability varied depending on inoculated yeasts. In addition, the results showed significant differences in the chemical composition of wine. Starmerella bacillaris 474 reduced the alcohol content (1.1% vol) and increased the total acidity (1.2 g L-1) and glycerol of wines. Fermentation with Lachancea thermotolerans Lt93 and Torulaspora delbrueckii Td315 also decreased the alcohol content, although to a lesser extent (0.3% vol and 0.7% vol, respectively); however, their effect on wine acidity was less significant. The wines also differed in their concentration of volatile compounds and sensory characteristics. Thus, wines made with Metschnikowia fructicola Mf278 and S. cerevisiae ScXG3 had higher content of esters, acetates, and some acids than other wines, and were most appreciated by tasters due to their fruity character and overall impression.}, }
@article {pmid31584183, year = {2019}, author = {Bemmels, JB and Anderson, JT}, title = {Climate change shifts natural selection and the adaptive potential of the perennial forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/evo.13854}, pmid = {31584183}, issn = {1558-5646}, abstract = {Heritable genetic variation is necessary for populations to evolve in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, antagonistic genetic correlations among traits may constrain the rate of adaptation, even if substantial genetic variation exists. We examine potential genetic responses to selection by comparing multivariate genetic variance-covariances of traits and fitness (multivariate Robertson-Price identities) across different environments in a reciprocal transplant experiment of the forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains. By transplanting populations into four common gardens arrayed along an elevational gradient, and exposing populations to control and snow removal treatments, we simulated future and current climates and snowmelt regimes. Genetic variation in flowering and germination phenology declined in plants moved downslope to warmer, drier sites, suggesting that these traits may have a limited ability to evolve under future climates. Simulated climate change via snow removal altered the strength of selection on flowering traits, but we found little evidence that genetic correlations among traits are likely to affect the rate of adaptation to climate change. Overall, our results suggest that climate change may alter the evolutionary potential of B. stricta, but reduced expression of genetic variation may be a larger impediment to adaptation than constraints imposed by antagonistic genetic correlations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31583730, year = {2019}, author = {Reis, J and Shortridge, J}, title = {Impact of Uncertainty Parameter Distribution on Robust Decision Making Outcomes for Climate Change Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13405}, pmid = {31583730}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {Deep uncertainty in future climatic and economic conditions complicates developing infrastructure designed to last several generations, such as water reservoirs. In response, analysts have developed multiple robust decision frameworks to help identify investments and policies that can withstand a wide range of future states. Although these frameworks are adept at supporting decisions where uncertainty cannot be represented probabilistically, analysts necessarily choose probabilistic bounds and distributions for uncertain variables to support exploratory modeling. The implications of these assumptions on the analytical outcomes of robust decision frameworks are rarely evaluated, and little guidance exists in terms of how to select uncertain variable distributions. Here, we evaluate the impact of these choices by following the robust decision-making procedure, using four different assumptions about the probabilistic distribution of exogenous uncertainties in future climatic and economic states. We take a water reservoir system in Ethiopia as our case study, and sample climatic parameters from uniform, normal, extended uniform, and extended normal distributions; we similarly sample two economic parameters. We compute regret and satisficing robustness decision criteria for two performance measures, agricultural water demand coverage and net present value, and perform scenario discovery on the most robust reservoir alternative. We find lower robustness scores resulting from extended parameter distributions and demonstrate that parameter distributions can impact vulnerabilities identified through scenario discovery. Our results suggest that exploratory modeling within robust decision frameworks should sample from extended, uniform parameters distributions.}, }
@article {pmid31579623, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, X and Huang, X}, title = {Human disturbance caused stronger influences on global vegetation change than climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7763}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.7763}, pmid = {31579623}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Global vegetation distribution has been influenced by human disturbance and climate change. The past vegetation changes were studied in numerous studies while few studies had addressed the relative contributions of human disturbance and climate change on vegetation change. To separate the influences of human disturbance and climate change on the vegetation changes, we compared the existing vegetation which indicates the vegetation distribution under human influences with the potential vegetation which reflects the vegetation distribution without human influences. The results showed that climate-induced vegetation changes only occurred in a few grid cells from the period 1982-1996 to the period 1997-2013. Human-induced vegetation changes occurred worldwide, except in the polar and desert regions. About 3% of total vegetation distribution was transformed by human activities from the period 1982-1996 to the period 1997-2013. Human disturbances caused stronger damage to global vegetation change than climate change. Our results indicated that the regions where vegetation experienced both human disturbance and climate change are eco-fragile regions.}, }
@article {pmid31579402, year = {2019}, author = {Dannenberg, A and Zitzelsberger, S}, title = {Climate experts' views on geoengineering depend on their beliefs about climate change impacts.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {769-775}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0564-z}, pmid = {31579402}, issn = {1758-678X}, abstract = {Climate change damages are expected to increase with global warming, which could be limited directly by solar geoengineering. Here we analyse the views of 723 negotiators and scientists involved in international climate policy who will have a significant influence on whether solar geoengineering will be deployed to counter climate change. We find that respondents who expect severe global climate change damages and who have little confidence in current mitigation efforts are more opposed to geoengineering than respondents who are less pessimistic about global damages and mitigation efforts. However, we also find that respondents are more supportive of geoengineering when they expect severe climate change damages in their home country than when they have more optimistic expectations for the home country. Thus, when respondents are more personally affected, their views are closer to what rational cost-benefit analyses predict.}, }
@article {pmid31579401, year = {2019}, author = {Varma, V and Bebber, DP}, title = {Climate change impacts on banana yields around the world.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {752-757}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0559-9}, pmid = {31579401}, issn = {1758-678X}, abstract = {Nutritional diversity is a key element of food security1-3. However, research on the effects of climate change on food security has, thus far, focussed on the major food grains4-8, while the response of other crops, particularly those that play an important role in the developing world, are poorly understood. Bananas are a staple food and a major export commodity for many tropical nations9. Here we show that for 27 countries - accounting for 86% of global dessert banana production - a changing climate since 1961 has increased yields by an average of 1.37 T.ha-1. Past gains have been largely ubiquitous across the countries assessed and African producers will continue to see yield increases into the future. However, global yield gains could be dampened or disappear in the future, reducing to 0.59 T.ha-1and 0.19 T.ha-1by 2050 under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, driven by declining yields amongst the largest producers and exporters. By quantifying climate-driven and technology-driven influences on yield, we also identify countries at risk from climate change and those capable of mitigating its effects, or capitalising on its benefits.}, }
@article {pmid31577835, year = {2019}, author = {Cisneros-Mata, MA and Mangin, T and Bone, J and Rodriguez, L and Smith, SL and Gaines, SD}, title = {Fisheries governance in the face of climate change: Assessment of policy reform implications for Mexican fisheries.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {e0222317}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0222317}, pmid = {31577835}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change is driving shifts in the abundance and distribution of marine fish and invertebrates and is having direct and indirect impacts on seafood catches and fishing communities, exacerbating the already negative effects of unsustainably high fishing pressure that exist for some stocks. Although the majority of fisheries in the world are managed at the national or local scale, most existing approaches to assessing climate impacts on fisheries have been developed on a global scale. It is often difficult to translate from the global to regional and local settings because of limited relevant data. To address the need for fisheries management entities to identify those fisheries with the greatest potential for climate change impacts, we present an approach for estimating expected climate change-driven impacts on the productivity and spatial range of fisheries at the regional scale in a data-poor context. We use a set of representative Mexican fisheries as test cases. To assess the implications of climate impacts, we compare biomass, harvest, and profit outcomes from a bioeconomic model under contrasting management policies and with and without climate change. Overall results show that climate change is estimated to negatively affect nearly every fishery in our study. However, the results indicate that overfishing is a greater threat than climate change for these fisheries, hence fixing current management challenges has a greater upside than the projected future costs of moderate levels of climate change. Additionally, this study provides meaningful first approximations of potential effects of both climate change and management reform in Mexican fisheries. Using the climate impact estimations and model outputs, we identify high priority stocks, fleets, and regions for policy reform in Mexico in the face of climate change. This approach can be applied in other data-poor circumstances to focus future research and policy reform efforts on stocks now subject to additional stress due to climate change. Considering their growing relevance as a critical source of protein and micronutrients to nourish our growing population, it is urgent for regions to develop sound fishery management policies in the short-term as they are the most important intervention to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on marine fisheries.}, }
@article {pmid31576035, year = {2019}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {World's oceans are losing power to stall climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {574}, number = {7776}, pages = {17-18}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02897-7}, pmid = {31576035}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31575888, year = {2019}, author = {Gómez-Ruiz, EP and Lacher, TE}, title = {Climate change, range shifts, and the disruption of a pollinator-plant complex.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {14048}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-50059-6}, pmid = {31575888}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change has significant impacts on the distribution of species and alters ecological processes that result from species interactions. There is concern that such distribution shifts will affect animal-plant pollination networks. We modelled the potential future (2050 and 2070) distribution of an endangered migratory bat species (Leptonycteris nivalis) and the plants they pollinate (Agave spp) during their annual migration from central Mexico to the southern United States. Our models show that the overlap between the Agave and the endangered pollinating bat will be reduced by at least 75%. The reduction of suitable areas for Agave species will restrict the foraging resources available for the endangered bat, threatening the survival of its populations and the maintenance of their pollination service. The potential extinction of the bat L. nivalis will likely have negative effects on the sexual reproduction and genetic variability of Agave plants increasing their vulnerability to future environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid31575872, year = {2019}, author = {Serrano, O and Lovelock, CE and B Atwood, T and Macreadie, PI and Canto, R and Phinn, S and Arias-Ortiz, A and Bai, L and Baldock, J and Bedulli, C and Carnell, P and Connolly, RM and Donaldson, P and Esteban, A and Ewers Lewis, CJ and Eyre, BD and Hayes, MA and Horwitz, P and Hutley, LB and Kavazos, CRJ and Kelleway, JJ and Kendrick, GA and Kilminster, K and Lafratta, A and Lee, S and Lavery, PS and Maher, DT and Marbà, N and Masque, P and Mateo, MA and Mount, R and Ralph, PJ and Roelfsema, C and Rozaimi, M and Ruhon, R and Salinas, C and Samper-Villarreal, J and Sanderman, J and J Sanders, C and Santos, I and Sharples, C and Steven, ADL and Cannard, T and Trevathan-Tackett, SM and Duarte, CM}, title = {Australian vegetated coastal ecosystems as global hotspots for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4313}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-12176-8}, pmid = {31575872}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Policies aiming to preserve vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE; tidal marshes, mangroves and seagrasses) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions require national assessments of blue carbon resources. Here, we present organic carbon (C) storage in VCE across Australian climate regions and estimate potential annual CO2 emission benefits of VCE conservation and restoration. Australia contributes 5-11% of the C stored in VCE globally (70-185 Tg C in aboveground biomass, and 1,055-1,540 Tg C in the upper 1 m of soils). Potential CO2 emissions from current VCE losses are estimated at 2.1-3.1 Tg CO2-e yr-1, increasing annual CO2 emissions from land use change in Australia by 12-21%. This assessment, the most comprehensive for any nation to-date, demonstrates the potential of conservation and restoration of VCE to underpin national policy development for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid31575015, year = {2019}, author = {Song, Y and Wang, C and Linderholm, HW and Tian, J and Shi, Y and Xu, J and Liu, Y}, title = {Agricultural Adaptation to Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {19}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16193686}, pmid = {31575015}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {The Tibetan plateau is one of the most sensitive areas in China and has been significantly affected by global warming. From 1961 to 2017, the annual air temperature increased by 0.32 °C/decade over the Tibetan Plateau, which is the highest in the whole of China. Furthermore, this is a trend that is projected to continue by 0.30 °C/decade from 2018 to 2050 due to global warming using the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). The increased temperature trend in recent decades has been highest in winter, which has been positive for the safe dormancy of winter wheat. In order to investigate agricultural adaptation to climate change in the Tibetan plateau, we used the World Food Studies (WOFOST) cropping systems model and weather data from the regional climate model RegCM4, to simulate winter wheat production in Guide county between 2018 and 2050. The simulated winter wheat potential yields amounted to 6698.3 kg/ha from 2018 to 2050, which showed the wheat yields would increase by 81%, if winter wheat was planted instead of spring wheat in the Tibetan Plateau with the correct amount of irrigation water. These results indicate that there are not only risks to crop yields from climate change, but also potential benefits. Global warming introduced the possibility to plant winter wheat instead of spring wheat over the Tibetan Plateau. These findings are very important for farmers and government agencies dealing with agricultural adaptation in a warmer climate.}, }
@article {pmid31570585, year = {2019}, author = {Riddell, EA and Iknayan, KJ and Wolf, BO and Sinervo, B and Beissinger, SR}, title = {Cooling requirements fueled the collapse of a desert bird community from climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1908791116}, pmid = {31570585}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate change threatens global biodiversity by increasing extinction risk, yet few studies have uncovered a physiological basis of climate-driven species declines. Maintaining a stable body temperature is a fundamental requirement for homeothermic animals, and water is a vital resource that facilitates thermoregulation through evaporative cooling, especially in hot environments. Here, we explore the potential for thermoregulatory costs to underlie the community collapse of birds in the Mojave Desert over the past century in response to climate change. The probability of persistence was lowest for species occupying the warmest and driest sites, which imposed the greatest cooling costs. We developed a general model of heat flux to evaluate whether water requirements for evaporative cooling contributed to species' declines by simulating thermoregulatory costs in the Mojave Desert for 50 bird species representing the range of observed declines. Bird species' declines were positively associated with climate-driven increases in water requirements for evaporative cooling and exacerbated by large body size, especially for species with animal-based diets. Species exhibiting reductions in body size across their range saved up to 14% in cooling costs and experienced less decline than species without size reductions, suggesting total cooling costs as a mechanism underlying Bergmann's rule. Reductions in body size, however, are unlikely to offset the 50 to 78% increase in cooling costs threatening desert birds from future climate change. As climate change spreads warm, dry conditions across the planet, water requirements are increasingly likely to drive population declines, providing a physiological basis for climate-driven extinctions.}, }
@article {pmid31570409, year = {2019}, author = {Iacobucci, G}, title = {Campaign group urges GMC to support doctors taking direct action against climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {l5785}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l5785}, pmid = {31570409}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid31565270, year = {2017}, author = {Myers, TA and Roser-Renouf, C and Maibach, E and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Exposure to the Pope's Climate Change Message Activated Convinced Americans to Take Certain Activism Actions.}, journal = {Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)}, volume = {1}, number = {4}, pages = {1600019}, doi = {10.1002/gch2.201600019}, pmid = {31565270}, issn = {2056-6646}, abstract = {Many people who are concerned about the issue of climate change do not engage in the collective action behaviors that are most likely to lead to societal-scale solutions. Such attitude-behavior inconsistency is a well-documented phenomenon. This study investigates whether exposure to an effectively framed message from a highly credible source can increase the consistency between attitudes and activism behaviors among people with pre-existing strong attitudes, particularly for behaviors that are less difficult. The release of Pope Francis' climate change encyclical, Laudato Sí, and subsequent visit to the United States provide an opportunity to test this research question in a natural field setting. A nationally representative, within-subject panel survey was conducted two months prior to the release of the encyclical and again four months later, after the release and papal visit, to assess the impact of the Pope's message on Americans' climate change consumer and political advocacy behaviors. Among people who are already concerned about climate change, higher exposure to the Pope's climate change message is associated with increases in attitude-behavior consistency for less difficult activism behaviors. The findings suggest that sustained exposure to compelling climate messages from trusted sources can increase the performance of activism behaviors.}, }
@article {pmid31565263, year = {2017}, author = {van der Linden, S and Leiserowitz, A and Rosenthal, S and Maibach, E}, title = {Inoculating the Public against Misinformation about Climate Change.}, journal = {Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {1600008}, doi = {10.1002/gch2.201600008}, pmid = {31565263}, issn = {2056-6646}, abstract = {Effectively addressing climate change requires significant changes in individual and collective human behavior and decision-making. Yet, in light of the increasing politicization of (climate) science, and the attempts of vested-interest groups to undermine the scientific consensus on climate change through organized &quot;disinformation campaigns,&quot; identifying ways to effectively engage with the public about the issue across the political spectrum has proven difficult. A growing body of research suggests that one promising way to counteract the politicization of science is to convey the high level of normative agreement (&quot;consensus&quot;) among experts about the reality of human-caused climate change. Yet, much prior research examining public opinion dynamics in the context of climate change has done so under conditions with limited external validity. Moreover, no research to date has examined how to protect the public from the spread of influential misinformation about climate change. The current research bridges this divide by exploring how people evaluate and process consensus cues in a polarized information environment. Furthermore, evidence is provided that it is possible to pre-emptively protect (&quot;inoculate&quot;) public attitudes about climate change against real-world misinformation.}, }
@article {pmid31565249, year = {2017}, author = {Feulner, G}, title = {Global Challenges: Climate Change.}, journal = {Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {5-6}, doi = {10.1002/gch2.1003}, pmid = {31565249}, issn = {2056-6646}, }
@article {pmid31566199, year = {2019}, author = {Li, Y and Fouad, WA and Vega, LF}, title = {Interfacial anomaly in low global warming potential refrigerant blends as predicted by molecular dynamics simulations.}, journal = {Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1039/c9cp03231b}, pmid = {31566199}, issn = {1463-9084}, abstract = {Understanding the phase behavior and accurately predicting the thermophysical, interfacial and transport properties of low global warming, fourth generation refrigerants is essential for designing and evaluating refrigeration cycle performances and determining the optimal refrigerant or blends for a selected application. In this paper, we have used molecular dynamics simulations to study the vapour-liquid interface of fourth generation refrigerants including 2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234yf), trans-1,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234ze(E)), methylpropane (isobutane, HC-600a) and binary mixtures containing HFO-1234yf + HC-600a and HFO-1234ze(E) + HC-600a as new alternatives to third generation refrigerants. We provide predictions on their vapour-liquid equilibrium and interfacial properties (such as density profiles, interface thickness and surface tension) derived from the simulations. The results are compared to the experimental data, when available, and calculations made using the statistical associating fluid theory (SAFT). It is found that the mixtures of HFO-1234yf + HC-600a and HFO-1234ze(E) + HC-600a present azeotropic and aneotropic behavior. Molecular dynamics simulations corroborate the aneotrope already predicted by SAFT for these mixtures, highlighting the robustness of using molecular modeling techniques to investigate the performance of low GWP refrigerants and their blends as complementary tools to obtain the required data for the optimization of these systems. Insights into the molecular behavior at compositions before the aneotrope, at the aneotrope and after the aneotrope are provided based on radial distribution functions. It is shown that HC-600a and HFO molecules tend to stay closer to the same type of molecules and accumulate at different sides of the liquid region to act like pure components at the aneotropic composition.}, }
@article {pmid31565547, year = {2019}, author = {Duarte, M and Guerrero, PC and Arroyo, MTK and Bustamante, RO}, title = {Niches and climate-change refugia in hundreds of species from one of the most arid places on Earth.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7409}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.7409}, pmid = {31565547}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background and Aims: Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. Several arid areas might expand in the future, but it is not clear if this change would be positive or negative for arid-adapted lineages. Here, we explore whether climatic niche properties are involved in the configuration of climate refugia and thus in future species trends.<br><br>Methods: To estimate putative climate refugia and potential expansion areas, we used maximum entropy models and four climate-change models to generate current and future potential distributions of 142 plant species endemic to the Atacama and mediterranean Chilean ecosystems. We assessed the relationship between the similarity and breadth of thermal and precipitation niches with the size of climate refugia and areas of potential expansions.<br><br>Key Results: We found a positive relationship between breadth and similarity for thermal niche with the size of climate refugia, but only niche similarity of the thermal niche was positively related with the size of expansion areas. Although all lineages would reduce their distributions in the future, few species are predicted to be at risk of extinction in their current distribution, and all of them presented potential expansion areas.<br><br>Conclusion: Species with a broad niche and niche dissimilarity will have larger refugia, and species with niche dissimilarity will have larger expansion areas. In addition, our prediction for arid lineages shows that these species will be moderately affected by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31565394, year = {2019}, author = {He, X and Liang, J and Zeng, G and Yuan, Y and Li, X}, title = {The Effects of Interaction between Climate Change and Land-Use/Cover Change on Biodiversity-Related Ecosystem Services.}, journal = {Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)}, volume = {3}, number = {9}, pages = {1800095}, doi = {10.1002/gch2.201800095}, pmid = {31565394}, issn = {2056-6646}, abstract = {Climate change and land-use/cover change (LUCC) are two major types of global environmental change. They are increasingly challenging the main objectives of ecosystem management, which are to provide ecosystem services sustainably to society and maintain biodiversity. However, a comprehensive understanding of how climate-land-use change affects these primary goals of ecosystem management is still lacking. Here, a global literature review on the impacts of climate change and LUCC on ecosystem services related to biodiversity is presented. In this review, possible ecological responses at species, community, and ecosystem levels, and the effects of interaction mechanisms between climate change and LUCC on biodiversity-related ecosystem services are identified. The results show possible effects on species facing climate change challenges through affecting distribution/range shifts, interspecific relations, richness, and abundance, and the impacts on biodiversity through increasing extinction rates, nutrient deposition, and habitat fragmentation under LUCC. Climate change may hinder the ability of species to deal with LUCC, and in turn LUCC could reduce resilience to climate change. Understanding of these interactions is necessary to address the increasing pressure on sustainable provisioning of ecosystem services under different climate and land-use scenarios in the future.}, }
@article {pmid31564207, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, X and Chen, L and Ho, SS}, title = {Does media exposure relate to the illusion of knowing in the public understanding of climate change?.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {963662519877743}, doi = {10.1177/0963662519877743}, pmid = {31564207}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {By acknowledging that people are cognitive misers, this study proposes that people may rely on the illusion of knowing as cognitive devices for attitudinal or behavioral change, in addition to factual knowledge. Accordingly, this study shifted the focus of inquiry from assessing media effects in increasing factual knowledge to assessing how media consumption relates to the illusion of knowing. Using a nationally door-to-door survey in Singapore (N = 705), the results revealed that individuals' attention to media messages about climate change and elaboration of these messages were positively related to the illusion of knowing. Furthermore, elaboration had moderating effects on the relationship between media attention and the illusion of knowing. These findings suggest that media consumption of climate change messages could drive the illusion of knowing, which is speculated to account for pro-environmental behaviors in addressing climate change. Theoretical and practical implications were discussed.}, }
@article {pmid31563775, year = {2019}, author = {Tao, Y and Zhang, Y and Cao, J and Wu, Z and Yao, S and Xue, B}, title = {Climate change has weakened the ability of Chinese lakes to bury polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {255}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {113288}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.113288}, pmid = {31563775}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Burial in sediments is a crucial way to reduce mobilization and risks of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs), but ability of sediments to bury HOCs may be altered if the environment is changed. Whether the ability of sediments to bury HOCs has been affected by climate change remains largely unclear. We excluded the impacts of anthropogenic emissions and eutrophication from that of climate change, and for the first time found that not only the rising surface air temperature but also the declining wind speed and the reducing days with precipitation had weakened the ability of Chinese lakes to bury 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) by 69.2% ± 9.4%-85.7% ± 3.6% from 1951 to 2017. The relative contributions of the climatic variables to the reduced burial ability depended on the properties of the PAHs, and lakes. Burial ability of the PAHs responded differently to climate change, and was correlated to their volatilization and aqueous solubility, and lake area, catchment area/lake area ratio, and water depth. Our study suggests that not only the rising surface air temperature but also the declining wind speed and the reducing days with precipitation can undermine global efforts to reduce environmental and human exposure to PAHs.}, }
@article {pmid31563602, year = {2019}, author = {Paul, A and Deka, J and Gujre, N and Rangan, L and Mitra, S}, title = {Does nature of livelihood regulate the urban community's vulnerability to climate change? Guwahati city, a case study from North East India.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {251}, number = {}, pages = {109591}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109591}, pmid = {31563602}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {There is dearth of studies on climate change based vulnerabilities of the urban people. It has been a matter of widespread debate whether nature of livelihood has any role to play in regulating the vulnerabilities of an individual. To find an answer, in a first ever attempt, this study tested three different approaches viz. Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) models and Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) to estimate climate change vulnerability of urban communities from various livelihoods in Guwahati city, Assam, India. Guwahati is considered to be the gateway to the seven North Eastern states of India and therefore strategically very important for this region. A structured survey was conducted involving 200 stakeholders from various livelihood sectors viz. construction workers, perishable item sellers, farmers, taxi/auto driver/rickshaw puller/coolie, tea stall/fast food seller, gas cylinder deliverymen, street vendors/salespersons, traffic police/police, doctors and boatmen. Data was systematically aggregated and examined using the above-mentioned composite indices. The differential vulnerabilities were compared and results suggested that the farmers were the most vulnerable community by virtue of their high sensitivity towards health, economic losses, exacerbated by their poor adaptive capacity toward unpredictable climatic variations. Doctors were the least vulnerable owing to their higher levels of awareness and adaptive capacity. These results reiterated the importance of awareness and access to resources in regulating vulnerability. The vulnerability scores also revealed that LVI and Model II (M II) of LVI IPCC approaches were the two most suitable indices and could be used for comparative vulnerability analysis. These pragmatic approaches can be used to assess the community vulnerabilities and could stimulate robust Climate Smart Urban Planning (CSUP).}, }
@article {pmid31560703, year = {2019}, author = {Anríquez, G and Toledo, G}, title = {De-climatizing food security: Lessons from climate change micro-simulations in Peru.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {9}, pages = {e0222483}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0222483}, pmid = {31560703}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {This paper brings advances in weather data collection and modeling, and developments in socioeconomic climate microsimulations to bear on the analysis of the implications of climate change (CC) in the design of public policies to combat food insecurity. It uses new downscaled predictions of future climate in 2050, derived from three Earth System Models calibrated with a new historical weather station dataset for Peru. This climate data is used in a three-stage socioeconomic microsimulation model that includes climate risk, and deals with the endogeneity of incomes and simultaneity of expected food consumption and its variability. We estimate the impact of CC on agricultural yields, and find results consistent and fully bounded within what the global simulations literature has found, with yields falling up to 13% in some regions. However, we show that these drops (and increases) in yields translate to much smaller changes in food consumption, and also surprisingly, to very minor impacts on vulnerability to food insecurity. The document explores what explains this surprising result, showing that in addition to characteristics that are specific to Peru, there are household and market mediating mechanisms that are available in all countries, which explain how changes in yields, and corresponding farm incomes have a reduced impact in vulnerability to food insecurity. Finally, in light of these findings, we explore which policies might have greater impact in reducing food insecurity in contexts of hunger prevalence.}, }
@article {pmid31560091, year = {2019}, author = {Vu, TT and Tran, DV and Tran, HTP and Nguyen, MD and Do, TA and Ta, NT and Cao, HT and Pham, NT and Phan, DV}, title = {An assessment of the impact of climate change on the distribution of the grey-shanked douc Pygathrix cinerea using an ecological niche model.}, journal = {Primates; journal of primatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10329-019-00763-8}, pmid = {31560091}, issn = {1610-7365}, support = {BDKH.38/16-20//Vietnam National Science and Technology Program to respond to climate change and environmental and resource management in the period 2016-2020/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change can have many negative impacts on wildlife species, and species with narrow distributions are more likely to be significantly affected. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling for species (MaxEnt software) as well as species occurrence data and climate variables to assess the impacts of climate change on the distribution of the grey-shanked douc-an endemic and rare primate species of Vietnam. We used climate data at the current time and two future times (2050 and 2070). Climate data were generated for two climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, together with three climate models ACCESS1-0, GFDL-CM3, and MPI-ESM-LR. We predicted that the distribution of the grey-shanked douc would be sharply reduced by the effects of climate change. The species' suitable distribution range in the future tended to shift toward the center of their current range and to higher mountainous areas. A larger suitable area, in particular highly suitable areas to the north and west of its current potential distribution range, would become less suitable or even unsuitable in 2050 and 2070. Kon Cha Rang Nature Reserve and Kon Ka Kinh National Park should be given priority in conservation of the grey-shanked douc because they now support important populations of the species and are in the highly suitable area remaining for the species in the future. The establishment of a new protected area for grey-shanked douc conservation should be considered in Kon Plong District, Kom Tum Province, which will be the center of the species distribution range.}, }
@article {pmid31559421, year = {2019}, author = {Florez-Sarasa, I and Fernie, AR and Gupta, KJ}, title = {Does the alternative respiratory pathway offer protection against the adverse effects resulting from climate change?.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erz428}, pmid = {31559421}, issn = {1460-2431}, abstract = {Elevated greenhouse gases (GHG) induce adverse conditions directly and indirectly causing decreases in plant productivity. To deal with climate change effects, plants have developed various mechanisms including the fine-tuning of metabolism. Plant respiratory metabolism is highly flexible due to presence of various alternative pathways. The mitochondrial alternative oxidase (AOX) respiratory pathway is responsive to these changes and several lines of evidence suggest it plays a role in reducing excesses of ROS and RNS while providing metabolic flexibility under stress. Here we discuss the importance of the AOX pathway in dealing with elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ozone (O3) and the main abiotic stresses induced by climate change. Recent advances in our understanding concerning the in vivo regulation of AOX and its structural properties suggest that novel AOXs with altered regulatory properties could be used in future gene editing strategies. We suggest that fine-tune modulation of the regulatory properties of AOX and targeting its expression in different plant tissues could improve plant growth and productivity under climate change conditions promoted by elevated GHG. Moreover, we also emphasise the need of extensive study on the interactive effects of major global change factors on AOX respiration and the importance of studies differentiating between the roles of AOX in sink versus source tissues under field conditions in order to improve plant productivity in response to elevated GHG.}, }
@article {pmid31559006, year = {2019}, author = {Smull, DM and Pendleton, N and Kleinhesselink, AR and Adler, PB}, title = {Climate change, snow mold and the Bromus tectorum invasion: mixed evidence for release from cold weather pathogens.}, journal = {AoB PLANTS}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {plz043}, doi = {10.1093/aobpla/plz043}, pmid = {31559006}, issn = {2041-2851}, abstract = {Climate change is reducing the depth and duration of winter snowpack, leading to dramatic changes in the soil environment with potentially important ecological consequences. Previous experiments in the Intermountain West of North America indicated that loss of snowpack increases survival and population growth rates of the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum; however, the underlying mechanism is unknown. We hypothesized that reduced snowpack might promote B. tectorum population growth by decreasing damage from snow molds, a group of subnivean fungal pathogens. To test this hypothesis, we conducted greenhouse and field experiments to investigate the interaction between early snowmelt and either fungicide addition or snow mold infection of B. tectorum. The greenhouse experiment confirmed that the snow mold Microdochium nivale can cause mortality of B. tectorum seedlings. In the field experiment, early snowmelt and fungicide application both increased B. tectorum survival, but their effects did not interact, and snow mold inoculation had no effect on survival. We did find interactive effects of snowmelt and fungal treatments on B. tectorum seed production: with ambient snowpack, M. nivale inoculation reduced seed production and fungicide increased it, whereas in the early snowmelt treatment seed production was high regardless of fungal treatment. However, treatment effects on seed production did not translate directly to overall population growth, which did not respond to the snow melt by fungal treatment interaction. Based on our mixed results, the hypothesis that reduced snowpack may increase B. tectorum fitness by limiting the effects of plant pathogens deserves further investigation.}, }
@article {pmid31557891, year = {2019}, author = {Jin, Y and Xu, J and He, H and Li, MH and Tao, Y and Zhang, Y and Hu, R and Gao, X and Bai, Y and Wang, H and Han, Y}, title = {The Changbai Alpine Shrub Tundra Will Be Replaced by Herbaceous Tundra under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants8100370}, pmid = {31557891}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {No. 41571078 and 41171072//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Significant replacement of shrub species by herbaceous species has been observed in the Changbai alpine tundra zone, China, since the 1990s. This study used plot surveys to analyze variations in the spatial distribution of dominant plants and to ascertain the changing mechanisms of dominant species in the alpine tundra zone. We found that the two previously dominant shrubs, Rhododendron chrysanthum and Vaccinium uliginosum, differed markedly in their distribution characteristics. The former had the highest abundance and the lowest coefficient of variation, skewness, and kurtosis, and the latter showed the opposite results, while the six herb species invaded had intermediate values. R. chrysanthum still had a relatively uniform distribution, while the herbaceous species and V. uliginosum had a patch distribution deviating from the normal distribution in the tundra zone. Micro-topography and slope grade had stronger effects on the spatial distribution of the eight plant species than elevation. Herbs tended to easily replace the shrubs on a semi-sunny slope aspect, steep slope, and depression. Overall, the dominance of dwarf shrubs declined, while the herbaceous species have encroached and expanded on the alpine tundra zone and have become co-dominant plant species. Our results suggest that various micro-topographic factors associated with variations in climatic and edaphic conditions determine the spatial distribution of plants in the alpine tundra zone. Future climate warming may cause decreased snow thickness, increased growing season length, and drought stress, which may further promote replacement of the shrubs by herbs, which shows retrogressive vegetation successions in the Changbai alpine tundra zone. Further studies need to focus on the physio-ecological mechanisms underlying the vegetation change and species replacement in the alpine tundra area under global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31557627, year = {2019}, author = {Richard, G and Le Trionnaire, G and Danchin, E and Sentis, A}, title = {Epigenetics and insect polyphenism: mechanisms and climate change impacts.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {138-145}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2019.06.013}, pmid = {31557627}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Phenotypic plasticity is a ubiquitous process found in all living organisms. Polyphenism is an extreme case of phenotypic plasticity which shares a common scheme in insects such as honeybees, locusts or aphids: an initial perception of environmental stimuli, a neuroendocrine transmission of these signals to the target tissues, the activation of epigenetic mechanisms allowing the setup of alternative transcriptional programs responsible for the establishment of discrete phenotypes. Climate change can modulate the environmental stimuli triggering polyphenisms, and/or some epigenetics marks, thus modifying on the short and long terms the discrete phenotype proportions within populations. This might result in critical ecosystem changes.}, }
@article {pmid31555727, year = {2019}, author = {Bevacqua, E and Maraun, D and Vousdoukas, MI and Voukouvalas, E and Vrac, M and Mentaschi, L and Widmann, M}, title = {Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {5}, number = {9}, pages = {eaaw5531}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aaw5531}, pmid = {31555727}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {In low-lying coastal areas, the co-occurrence of high sea level and precipitation resulting in large runoff may cause compound flooding (CF). When the two hazards interact, the resulting impact can be worse than when they occur individually. Both storm surges and heavy precipitation, as well as their interplay, are likely to change in response to global warming. Despite the CF relevance, a comprehensive hazard assessment beyond individual locations is missing, and no studies have examined CF in the future. Analyzing co-occurring high sea level and heavy precipitation in Europe, we show that the Mediterranean coasts are experiencing the highest CF probability in the present. However, future climate projections show emerging high CF probability along parts of the northern European coast. In several European regions, CF should be considered as a potential hazard aggravating the risk caused by mean sea level rise in the future.}, }
@article {pmid31554911, year = {2019}, author = {Malik, AA and Martiny, JBH and Brodie, EL and Martiny, AC and Treseder, KK and Allison, SD}, title = {Defining trait-based microbial strategies with consequences for soil carbon cycling under climate change.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41396-019-0510-0}, pmid = {31554911}, issn = {1751-7370}, }
@article {pmid31554537, year = {2019}, author = {Nowak, D}, title = {Global Warming-the German Picture.}, journal = {Deutsches Arzteblatt international}, volume = {116}, number = {31-32}, pages = {519-520}, doi = {10.3238/arztebl.2019.0519}, pmid = {31554537}, issn = {1866-0452}, }
@article {pmid31554024, year = {2019}, author = {Li, L and Zheng, Z and Wang, W and Biederman, JA and Xu, X and Ran, Q and Qian, R and Xu, C and Zhang, B and Wang, F and Zhou, S and Cui, L and Che, R and Hao, Y and Cui, X and Xu, Z and Wang, Y}, title = {Terrestrial N2 O emissions and related functional genes under climate change: A global meta-analysis.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14847}, pmid = {31554024}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions from soil contribute to global warming and are in turn substantially affected by climate change. However, climate change impacts on N2 O production across terrestrial ecosystems remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesised 46 published studies of N2 O fluxes and relevant soil functional genes (SFGs, i.e. archaeal amoA, bacterial amoA, nosZ, narG, nirK and nirS) to assess their responses to increased temperature, increased or decreased precipitation amounts, and prolonged drought (no change in total precipitation but increase in precipitation intervals) in terrestrial ecosystem (i.e. grasslands, forests, shrublands, tundra and croplands). Across the dataset, temperature increased N2 O emissions by 33%. However, the effects were highly variable across biomes, with strongest temperature responses in shrublands, variable responses in forests and negative responses in tundra. The warming methods employed also influenced the effects of temperature on N2 O emissions (most effectively induced by open-top chambers). Whole-day or whole-year warming treatment significantly enhanced N2 O emissions, but day-time, night-time or short-season warming did not have significant effects. Regardless of biome, treatment method and season, increased precipitation promoted N2 O emission by an average of 55%, while decreased precipitation suppressed N2 O emission by 31%, predominantly driven by changes in soil moisture. The effect size of precipitation changes on nirS and nosZ showed a U-shape relationship with soil moisture; further insight into biotic mechanisms underlying N2 O emission response to climate change remain limited by data availability, underlying a need for studies that report SFG. Our findings indicate that climate change substantially affects N2 O emission and highlight the urgent need to incorporate this strong feedback into most climate models for convincing projection of future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31553458, year = {2019}, author = {Sperlich, D and Chang, CT and Peñuelas, J and Sabaté, S}, title = {Responses of photosynthesis and component processes to drought and temperature stress: Are Mediterranean trees fit for climate change?.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpz089}, pmid = {31553458}, issn = {1758-4469}, abstract = {Global warming is raising concerns about the acclimatory capacity of trees and forests, especially in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. The sensitivity of photosynthesis to temperature is a key uncertainty for projecting the magnitude of terrestrial feedbacks on future climate change. While boreal, temperate and tropical species have been comparatively well investigated our study provides the first comprehensive overview of the seasonal acclimatory responses of photosynthesis and its component processes to temperature in four Mediterranean climax species under natural conditions. We quantified seasonal changes in the responses of net photosynthesis (Anet), stomatal conductance (gs), mesophyllic conductance (gm), and electron-transport rate (Jcf) and investigated their sensitivity to drought and temperature stress in sunlit and shaded leaves of four Mediterranean tree species (Quercus ilex, Q. pubescens, Pinus halepensis, and Arbutus unedo). Sunlit leaves, but not shaded leaves, showed a pronounced seasonality in the temperature responses of Anet, gs, gm, Jcf. All four species and variables showed a remarkably dynamic and consistent acclimation of the thermal optimum reaching peaks in summer ~ 29-32°C. Changes in the shape of the response curves were, however, highly species-specific. Under severe drought, Topt of all variables were on average 22-29% lower. This was accompanied by narrower response curves above all in P. halepensis, reducing the optimal range for photosynthesis to the cooler morning or evening periods. Wider temperature-response curves and less strict stomatal control under severe drought were accompanied by wilting and drought-induced leaf shedding in Q. ilex and Q. pubescens and by additional branch dieback in A. unedo. Mild winter conditions led to a high Topt (~19.1-22.2°C)-benefitting the evergreen species, especially P. halepensis. Seasonal acclimation of Anet was explained better by gs and gm being less pronounced in Jcf. Drought was thus a key factor, in addition to growth temperature to explain seasonal acclimation of photosynthesis. Severe drought periods may exceed more frequently the high acclimatory capacity of Mediterranean trees to high ambient temperatures, which could lead to reduced growth, increased leaf shedding and, for some species such as A. unedo, increased mortality risk.}, }
@article {pmid31551548, year = {2019}, author = {Schiermeier, Q and Atkinson, K and Mega, ER and Padma, TV and Stoye, E and Tollefson, J and Witze, A}, title = {Scientists worldwide join strikes for climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {573}, number = {7775}, pages = {472-473}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02791-2}, pmid = {31551548}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31551200, year = {2019}, author = {Londoño Pineda, AA and Vélez Rojas Oscar, OA and Jonathan, MP and Sujitha, SB}, title = {Evaluation of climate change adaptation in the energy generation sector in Colombia via a composite index - A monitoring tool for government policies and actions.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {250}, number = {}, pages = {109453}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109453}, pmid = {31551200}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The aim of the article is to evaluate the national adaptation to climate change in the energy generation sector in Colombia via a composite index. To build an index, a framework by stages is used, which includes the definition of the main concepts that supports the measurements; the selection of the relevant indicators using a subject matter experts; standardization of the indicators using a mathematic formula regarding the relationship between the variables that represent the adaptation to climate change; and establishment of the weights using an analytic hierarchical process of paired comparisons and the aggregation of indicators to obtain the following three sub-indexes: reactive adaptation, wherein the replacement of hydraulic energy by thermal energy is evaluated; anticipatory adaptation, which measures the gap between the generation of total energy and the demand of the national energy system; and planned adaptation, which considers indicators such as the sectoral plan for adapting to climate change, the law of alternative energies, and the generation of alternative energies as a percentage of generation capacity. By adding these sub-indices, the climate change adaptation index (CCAI) is obtained. The results of CCAI show that progress was made from a reactive adaptation scenario in which the system vulnerability was high to an anticipatory adaptation scenario wherein the vulnerability was average, indicating that the foundations for this sector to build a planned adaptation are currently being laid.}, }
@article {pmid31548862, year = {2019}, author = {Sang, Z and Sebastian-Azcona, J and Hamann, A and Menzel, A and Hacke, U}, title = {Adaptive limitations of white spruce populations to drought imply vulnerability to climate change in its western range.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {1850-1860}, doi = {10.1111/eva.12845}, pmid = {31548862}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {A cost-effective climate change adaptation strategy for the forestry sector is to move seed sources to more northern and higher elevation planting sites as part of ongoing reforestation programs. This is meant to match locally adapted populations with anticipated environments, but adaptive traits do not always show population differences suitable to mitigate climate change impacts. For white spruce, drought tolerance is a critical adaptive trait to prevent mortality and productivity losses. Here, we use a 40-year-old provenance experiment that has been exposed to severe drought periods in 1999 and 2002 to retrospectively investigate drought response and the adaptive capacity of white spruce populations across their boreal range. Relying on dendrochronological analysis under experimentally controlled environments, we evaluate population differences in resistance, resilience, and recovery to these extreme events. Results showed evidence for population differentiation in resistance and recovery parameters, but provenances conformed to approximately the same growth rates under drought conditions and had similar resilience metrics. The lack of populations with better growth rates under drought conditions is contrary to expectations for a wide-ranging species with distinct regional climates. Populations from the wettest environments in the northeastern boreal were surprisingly drought-tolerant, suggesting that these populations would readily resist water deficits projected for the 2080s, and supporting the view that northeastern Canada will provide a refugium for boreal species under climate change. The findings also suggest that white spruce is sensitive to growth reductions under climate change in the western boreal. The study highlights that population differentiation in adaptive capacity is species- and trait-specific, and we provide a counterexample for drought tolerance traits, where assisted migration prescriptions may be ineffective to mitigate climate change impacts. For resource managers and policy makers, we provide maps where planning for widespread declines of boreal white spruce forests may be unavoidable.}, }
@article {pmid31548604, year = {2019}, author = {Schlichtholz, P}, title = {Subsurface ocean flywheel of coupled climate variability in the Barents Sea hotspot of global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {13692}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-49965-6}, pmid = {31548604}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2016/21/B/ST10/01446//Narodowe Centrum Nauki (National Science Centre)/ ; }, abstract = {Accelerated shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice cover is the main reason for the recent Arctic amplification of global warming. There is growing evidence that the ocean is involved in this phenomenon, but to what extent remains unknown. Here, a unique dataset of hydrographic profiles is used to infer the regional pattern of recent subsurface ocean warming and construct a skillful predictor for surface climate variability in the Barents Sea region - a hotspot of the recent climate change. It is shown that, in the era of satellite observations (1981-2018), summertime temperature anomalies of Atlantic water heading for the Arctic Ocean explain more than 80% of the variance of the leading mode of variability in the following winter sea ice concentration over the entire Northern Hemisphere, with main centers of action just in the Barents Sea region. Results from empirical forecast experiments demonstrate that predictability of the wintertime sea ice cover in the Barents Sea from subsurface ocean heat anomalies might have increased since the Arctic climate shift of the mid-2000s. In contrast, the corresponding predictability of the sea ice cover in the nearby Greenland Sea has been lost.}, }
@article {pmid31548271, year = {2019}, author = {Salas, RN and Jha, AK}, title = {Climate change threatens the achievement of effective universal healthcare.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {l5302}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l5302}, pmid = {31548271}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid31548093, year = {2019}, author = {Lauchlan, SS and Burckard, G and Cassey, P and Nagelkerken, I}, title = {Climate change erodes competitive hierarchies among native, alien and range-extending crabs.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {104777}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.104777}, pmid = {31548093}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Global warming and ocean acidification alter a wide range of animal behaviours, yet the effect on resource competition among species is poorly understood. We tested whether the combination of moderate levels of ocean acidification and warming altered the feeding success of co-occurring native, alien, and range-extending crab species, and how these changes affected their hierarchical dominance. Under contemporary conditions the range-extending species spent more time feeding, than the alien and the native species. Under conditions simulating future climate there was no difference in the proportion of time spent feeding among the three species. These behavioural changes translated to alterations in their dominance hierarchy (based on feeding success) with the most dominant species under present day conditions becoming less dominant under future conditions, and vice versa for the least dominant species. While empirical studies have predicted either reversal or strengthening of hierarchical dominance in animal species, we suggest that even moderate increases in ocean temperature and acidification can drive a homogenisation in behavioural competitiveness, eroding dominance differences among species that are linked to fitness-related traits in nature and hence important for their population persistence.}, }
@article {pmid31543701, year = {2018}, author = {Damert, M and Baumgartner, RJ}, title = {External Pressures or Internal Governance - What Determines the Extent of Corporate Responses to Climate Change?.}, journal = {Corporate social responsibility and environmental management}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {473-488}, doi = {10.1002/csr.1473}, pmid = {31543701}, issn = {1535-3966}, abstract = {To prevent adverse effects from climate change, it is vital to involve the private sector in mitigation efforts. So far, however, research has insufficiently addressed the determinants of corporate action in specific industries. Our paper aims at bridging this gap by empirically analyzing the global automotive industry's response to climate change mitigation issues. We use publicly available information from 105 sector leaders to investigate the role of external institutional pressures and intra-organizational governance in the extent of corporate action. Based on a multiple regression analysis, we find that organizational involvement and the integration of climate change into risk management exhibit the greatest influence. Moreover, companies with business activities that necessitate interaction with the end consumer tend to be most active. Our analysis furthermore indicates that neither the stringency of a firm's home country's climate policy regime nor the degree of internationalization is associated with a higher implementation level of response strategies. © 2017 The Authors. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management published by ERP Environment and John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd.}, }
@article {pmid31542889, year = {2019}, author = {Bartosova, A and Capell, R and Olesen, JE and Jabloun, M and Refsgaard, JC and Donnelly, C and Hyytiäinen, K and Pihlainen, S and Zandersen, M and Arheimer, B}, title = {Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5}, pmid = {31542889}, issn = {1654-7209}, abstract = {The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.}, }
@article {pmid31539955, year = {2019}, author = {Rodriguez-Dominguez, A and Connell, SD and Leung, JYS and Nagelkerken, I}, title = {Adaptive responses of fishes to climate change: Feedback between physiology and behaviour.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {692}, number = {}, pages = {1242-1249}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.226}, pmid = {31539955}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The adaptive capacity of individuals, from their cells to their overall performance, allows species to adjust to environmental change. We assess a hierarchy of responses (from cells to organismal growth and behaviour) to understand the flexibility of adaptive responses to future ocean conditions (warming and acidification) in two species of fish with short lifespans by conducting a long-term mesocosm/aquarium experiment. Fishes were exposed to elevated CO2 and temperature in a factorial design for a five-month period. We found a feedback mechanism between cellular defence and behavioural responses. In circumstances where their antioxidant defence mechanism was activated (i.e. warming or acidification), increased feeding rates prevented oxidative damage (i.e. during warming Sp. 1). However, when feeding rates failed to increase to provide additional energy needed for antioxidant defence, oxidative damage could not be prevented (warming + acidification Sp. 1). In contrast, when the activation of antioxidant defence was not required, energy intake from increased feeding was redirected to increased fish growth (acidification Sp. 2, warming + acidification Sp. 2), whilst no gain in growth rate was observed where feeding remained unchanged (acidification Sp. 1 or warming Sp. 2). This adaptive strategy seems to rely on the inherent behavioural response of fishes to their environment and such adjustability shows the kind of responses that organisms may express to prevail in future ocean climate. Indeed, assessing the link between responses from cellular to organismal levels, using a diversity of fitness indicators and behaviour, provides a fundamental understanding of how organisms as a whole may adjust to prevail in a future world.}, }
@article {pmid31539953, year = {2019}, author = {Bahri, H and Annabi, M and Cheikh M'Hamed, H and Frija, A}, title = {Assessing the long-term impact of conservation agriculture on wheat-based systems in Tunisia using APSIM simulations under a climate change context.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {692}, number = {}, pages = {1223-1233}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.307}, pmid = {31539953}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Several circulation models are forecasting climate changes in the Mediterranean region. Accordingly, it is expected that water scarcity in the region will be higher with drastic shifts of hydrological and erosive watershed responses. In Tunisia, wheat yields have been variable over the years and are lower than the potential yields. In response, the adoption of conservation agriculture (CA), introduced into Tunisia in 1999 to help adaptation to climate change, has resulted in a substantial reduction in agricultural productivity. CA areas increased from 52 ha in 1999 to 14,000 ha in 2015. Using a modelling approach, the present paper evaluates the potential of CA to adapt wheat-based-systems to climate change in Tunisia. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model was used to predict the effect of tillage (conventional tillage [CT] vs. zero-tillage [ZT] and soil residue retention [ZT-RR]) on wheat productivity and soil fertility. Two contrasting locations in Tunisia were studied; one semi-arid (Kef) and one sub-humid (Bizerte). Results showed that the sustainable production of durum wheat under climate change conditions in Tunisia is possible through the adoption of CA practices (ZT and ZT-RR) in both sub-humid and semi-arid areas. In fact, mulching (residue retention) is more effective than CT (under semi-arid and sub-humid conditions) in enhancing wheat yield (15%), water use efficiency (18% and 13%) and soil organic carbon accumulation (0.13 t ha-1 year-1 and 0.18 t ha-1 year-1). It is also more effective for soil resilience - preventing water erosion (1.7 t ha-1 year-1 and 4.6 t ha-1 year-1 of soil loss). The present study allowed identification of 260,000 ha as priority areas for CA adoption; this represent one-third of the total cereal area in Tunisia. Appropriate evaluation of the benefits of CA on sustainable agricultural intensification would provide more arguments for effectively supporting CA adoption in Tunisia.}, }
@article {pmid31539949, year = {2019}, author = {Filho, WL and Balogun, AL and Olayide, OE and Azeiteiro, UM and Ayal, DY and Muñoz, PDC and Nagy, GJ and Bynoe, P and Oguge, O and Yannick Toamukum, N and Saroar, M and Li, C}, title = {Assessing the impacts of climate change in cities and their adaptive capacity: Towards transformative approaches to climate change adaptation and poverty reduction in urban areas in a set of developing countries.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {692}, number = {}, pages = {1175-1190}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.227}, pmid = {31539949}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Many cities across the world are facing many problems climate change poses to their populations, communities and infrastructure. These vary from increased exposures to floods, to discomfort due to urban heat, depending on their geographical locations and settings. However, even though some cities have a greater ability to cope with climate change challenges, many struggle to do so, particularly in cities in developing countries. In addition, there is a shortage of international studies which examine the links between climate change adaptation and cities, and which at the same time draw some successful examples of good practice, which may assist future efforts. This paper is an attempt to address this information need. The aim of this paper is to analyse the extent to which cities in a sample of developing countries are attempting to pursue climate change adaptation and the problems which hinder this process. Its goal is to showcase examples of initiatives and good practice in transformative adaptation, which may be replicable elsewhere. To this purpose, the paper describes some trends related to climate change in a set of cities in developing countries across different continents, including one of the smallest capital cities (Georgetown, Guyana) and Shanghai, one the world's most populous cities. In particular, it analyses their degree of vulnerability, how they manage to cope with climate change impacts, and the policies being implemented to aid adaptation. It also suggests the use of transformative approaches which may be adopted, in order to assist them in their efforts towards investments in low-carbon and climate-resilient infrastructure, thereby maximizing investments in urban areas and trying to address their related poverty issues. This paper addresses a gap in the international literature on the problems many cities in developing countries face, in trying to adapt to a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid31539939, year = {2019}, author = {Markkula, I and Turunen, M and Rasmus, S}, title = {A review of climate change impacts on the ecosystem services in the Saami Homeland in Finland.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {692}, number = {}, pages = {1070-1085}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.272}, pmid = {31539939}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The aim of this work is (i) to review the recent studies on weather and climate change in Finnish Sápmi and to present the literature review findings alongside our survey on the observations made by local reindeer herders on the same phenomena, and, further, (ii) to review the impacts of climate change on the ecosystem services (ES) in Finnish Sápmi. The focus of the study is on the impacts of climate change on those habitat, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services which are interconnected with the Saami way of life as Indigenous people and thus support the continuity of their culture. In the holistic world view of Arctic Indigenous peoples, material culture and non-material culture are not separated, and there is no boundary between nature and culture. However, cultural and spiritual meanings of ecosystems, species and landscapes are rarely taken into account in scientific research on ecosystems services. Our review indicates that mostly negative impacts of climate warming on ecosystems and traditional livelihoods are to be expected in Sápmi. The most profound negative impacts will be on palsa mire and fell ecosystems, in particular snowbeds, snow patches and mountain birch forests. Consequently, changes in ecosystems may erode cultural meanings, stories, memories and traditional knowledge attached to them and affect the nature-based traditional livelihoods. In a situation where our rapidly changing climate is affecting the foundations of the nature-based cultures, the present review can provide a knowledge base for developing adaptation actions and strategies for local communities and Indigenous peoples to cope with changes caused by climate change and other drivers.}, }
@article {pmid31537412, year = {2019}, author = {Alurralde, G and Fuentes, VL and Maggioni, T and Movilla, J and Olariaga, A and Orejas, C and Schloss, IR and Tatián, M}, title = {Role of suspension feeders in antarctic pelagic-benthic coupling: Trophic ecology and potential carbon sinks under climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {104790}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.104790}, pmid = {31537412}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Sea-ice and coastal glacier loss in the Western Antarctic Peninsula open new ice-free areas. They allowing primary production and providing new seabed for colonisation, both acting as a negative feedback of climate change. However, the injection of sediment-laden runoff from the melting of land-terminating glaciers may reduce this feedback. Changes in particulate matter will affect nutrition and excretion (faeces stoichiometry and properties) of suspension feeders, reshaping coastal carbon dynamics and pelagic-benthic coupling. Absorption efficiency and biodeposition of Euphausia superba and Cnemidocarpa verrucosa were quantified for different food treatments and varying sediment concentrations. Both species showed high overall absorption efficiency for free-sediment diets, but were negatively affected by sediment addition. High sediment conditions increased krill biodeposition, while it decreased in ascidians. Energy balance estimation indicated high carbon sink potential in ascidians, but it is modulated by food characteristics and negatively affected by sediment inputs in the water column.}, }
@article {pmid31534712, year = {2019}, author = {Walker, WH and Meléndez-Fernández, OH and Nelson, RJ and Reiter, RJ}, title = {Global climate change and invariable photoperiods: A mismatch that jeopardizes animal fitness.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {17}, pages = {10044-10054}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5537}, pmid = {31534712}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The Earth's surface temperature is rising, and precipitation patterns throughout the Earth are changing; the source of these shifts is likely anthropogenic in nature. Alterations in temperature and precipitation have obvious direct and indirect effects on both plants and animals. Notably, changes in temperature and precipitation alone can have both advantageous and detrimental consequences depending on the species. Typically, production of offspring is timed to coincide with optimal food availability; thus, individuals of many species display annual rhythms of reproductive function. Because it requires substantial time to establish or re-establish reproductive function, individuals cannot depend on the arrival of seasonal food availability to begin breeding; thus, mechanisms have evolved in many plants and animals to monitor and respond to day length in order to anticipate seasonal changes in the environment. Over evolutionary time, there has been precise fine-tuning of critical photoperiod and onset/offset of seasonal adaptations. Climate change has provoked changes in the availability of insects and plants which shifts the timing of optimal reproduction. However, adaptations to the stable photoperiod may be insufficiently plastic to allow a shift in the seasonal timing of bird and mammal breeding. Coupled with the effects of light pollution which prevents these species from determining day length, climate change presents extreme evolutionary pressure that can result in severe deleterious consequences for individual species reproduction and survival. This review describes the effects of climate change on plants and animals, defines photoperiod and the physiological events it regulates, and addresses the consequences of global climate change and a stable photoperiod.}, }
@article {pmid31534490, year = {2019}, author = {Tapley, BD and Watkins, MM and Flechtner, F and Reigber, C and Bettadpur, S and Rodell, M and Sasgen, I and Famiglietti, JS and Landerer, FW and Chambers, DP and Reager, JT and Gardner, AS and Save, H and Ivins, ER and Swenson, SC and Boening, C and Dahle, C and Wiese, DN and Dobslaw, H and Tamisiea, ME and Velicogna, I}, title = {Contributions of GRACE to understanding climate change.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {358-369}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0456-2}, pmid = {31534490}, issn = {1758-678X}, abstract = {Time-resolved satellite gravimetry has revolutionized understanding of mass transport in the Earth system. Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has enabled monitoring of the terrestrial water cycle, ice sheet and glacier mass balance, sea level change and ocean bottom pressure variations and understanding responses to changes in the global climate system. Initially a pioneering experiment of geodesy, the time-variable observations have matured into reliable mass transport products, allowing assessment and forecast of a number of important climate trends and improve service applications such as the U.S. Drought Monitor. With the successful launch of the GRACE Follow-On mission, a multi decadal record of mass variability in the Earth system is within reach.}, }
@article {pmid31534259, year = {2019}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {The hard truths of climate change - by the numbers.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {573}, number = {7774}, pages = {324-327}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02711-4}, pmid = {31534259}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31533360, year = {2019}, author = {Moda, HM and Filho, WL and Minhas, A}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Outdoor Workers and their Safety: Some Research Priorities.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {18}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16183458}, pmid = {31533360}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {The literature on the potential impacts of climate change on the health of outdoor workers has received limited attention as a whole, and in sub-Saharan African countries in particular. Yet, substantial numbers of workers are experiencing the health effects of elevated temperature, in combination with changes in precipitation patterns, climate extremes and the effects of air pollution, which have a potential impact on their safety and wellbeing. With increased temperatures within urban settlements and frequent heats waves, there has been a sudden rise in the occurrence of heat-related illness leading to higher levels of mortality, as well as other adverse health impacts. This paper discusses the impacts of extreme heat exposure and health concerns among outdoor workers, and the resultant impacts on their productivity and occupational safety in tropical developing countries with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, where there is a dearth of such studies. Aside from the direct effects caused by extreme heat exposure, other indirect health hazards associated with increasing heat among this group includes exposures to hazardous chemicals and other vector-borne diseases. In addition, reduced work capacity in heat-exposed jobs will continue to rise and hinder economic and social development in such countries. There is an urgent need for further studies around the health and economic impacts of climate change in the workplace, especially in tropical developing countries, which may guide the implementation of the measures needed to address the problem.}, }
@article {pmid31533302, year = {2019}, author = {Huang, X and Zhang, T and Yi, G and He, D and Zhou, X and Li, J and Bie, X and Miao, J}, title = {Dynamic Changes of NDVI in the Growing Season of the Tibetan Plateau During the Past 17 Years and Its Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {18}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16183452}, pmid = {31533302}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {41801099//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2019QZKK0307//Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)/ ; }, abstract = {The fragile alpine vegetation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is very sensitive to environmental changes, making TP one of the hotspots for studying the response of vegetation to climate change. Existing studies lack detailed description of the response of vegetation to different climatic factors using the method of multiple nested time series analysis and the method of grey correlation analysis. In this paper, based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of TP in the growing season calculated from the MOD09A1 data product of Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the method of multiple nested time series analysis is adopted to study the variation trends of NDVI in recent 17 years, and the lag time of NDVI to climate change is analyzed using the method of Grey Relational Analysis (GRA). Finally, the characteristics of temporal and spatial differences of NDVI to different climate factors are summarized. The results indicate that: (1) the spatial distribution of NDVI values in the growing season shows a trend of decreasing from east to west, and from north to south, with a change rate of -0.13/10° E and -0.30/10° N, respectively. (2) From 2001 to 2017, the NDVI in the TP shows a slight trend of increase, with a growth rate of 0.01/10a. (3) The lag time of NDVI to air temperature is not obvious, while the NDVI response lags behind cumulative precipitation by zero to one month, relative humidity by two months, and sunshine duration by three months. (4) The effects of different climatic factors on NDVI are significantly different with the increase of the study period.}, }
@article {pmid31533071, year = {2019}, author = {Cline, AJ and Hamilton, SL and Logan, CA}, title = {Effects of multiple climate change stressors on gene expression in blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus).}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {110580}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.110580}, pmid = {31533071}, issn = {1531-4332}, abstract = {Global climate change is predicted to increase the co-occurrence of high pCO2 and hypoxia in upwelling zones worldwide. Yet, few studies have examined the effects of these stressors on economically and ecologically important fishes. Here, we investigated short-term responses of juvenile blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus) to independent and combined high pCO2 and hypoxia at the molecular level, using changes in gene expression and metabolic enzymatic activity to investigate potential shifts in energy metabolism. Fish were experimentally exposed to conditions associated with intensified upwelling under climate change: high pCO2 (1200 μatm, pH~7.6), hypoxia (4.0 mg O2/L), and a combined high pCO2/hypoxia treatment for 12 h, 24 h or two weeks. Muscle transcriptome profiles varied significantly among the three treatments, with limited overlap among genes responsive to both the single and combined stressors. Under elevated pCO2, blue rockfish increased expression of genes encoding proteins involved in the electron transport chain and muscle contraction. Under hypoxia, blue rockfish up-regulated genes involved in oxygen and ion transport and down-regulated transcriptional machinery. Under combined high pCO2 and hypoxia, blue rockfish induced a unique set of ionoregulatory and hypoxia-responsive genes not expressed under the single stressors. Thus, high pCO2 and hypoxia exposure appears to induce a non-additive transcriptomic response that cannot be predicted from single stressor exposures alone, further highlighting the need for multiple stressor studies at the molecular level. Overall, lack of a major shift in cellular energetics indicates that blue rockfish may be relatively resistant to intensified upwelling conditions in the short term.}, }
@article {pmid31532931, year = {2019}, author = {Temte, JL and Holzhauer, JR and Kushner, KP}, title = {Correlation Between Climate Change and Dysphoria in Primary Care.}, journal = {WMJ : official publication of the State Medical Society of Wisconsin}, volume = {118}, number = {2}, pages = {71-74}, pmid = {31532931}, issn = {1098-1861}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Concern about climate change may affect mental health. We evaluated the relationship between primary care patients' attitudes toward climate change and dysphoria.<br><br>METHODS: In 2013, we surveyed 571 adult primary care patients in southern Wisconsin. Attitudes toward climate change were measured using a 46-point composite of 9 questions. Dysphoria was measured using a 13-point composite summing the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-2) and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale (GAD-2).<br><br>RESULTS: Patients frequently reported concern about climate change and 22.5% experienced dysphoria. A significant, positive correlation existed between the composite climate change score and the dysphoria score (rs=0.345; P<0.001).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Primary care patients are concerned about climate change and this concern is positively related to dysphoria. The level to which dysphoria is due to climate change should be elucidated.}, }
@article {pmid31531900, year = {2019}, author = {Patrick, R and Armstrong, F and Hancock, T and Capon, A and Smith, JA}, title = {Climate change and health promotion in Australia: Navigating political, policy, advocacy and research challenges.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {295-298}, doi = {10.1002/hpja.278}, pmid = {31531900}, issn = {1036-1073}, }
@article {pmid31530927, year = {2019}, author = {Yamin, F}, title = {Why I broke the law for climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {573}, number = {7774}, pages = {337-339}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02736-9}, pmid = {31530927}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31530925, year = {2019}, author = {Li, Y and Ren, Y and Chen, Y}, title = {China fortifies marine protection areas against climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {573}, number = {7774}, pages = {346}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02774-3}, pmid = {31530925}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31529863, year = {2019}, author = {Liang, SQ and Peng, SZ and Chen, YM}, title = {[Responses of productivity of typical natural secondary forests and plantations to climate change in Shaanxi Province, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {9}, pages = {2892-2902}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201909.022}, pmid = {31529863}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {We analyzed the changes of net primary productivity (NPP) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of Quercus spp. forest and Robinia pseudoacacia plantation under different future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100, using the process-based dynamic vegetation model-LPJ-GUESS. The results showed that compared with the benchmark period (1961-1990), NPP of Quercus spp. forest and R. pseudoacacia plantation in northern Shaanxi would decrease by 4.9%-29.5% and 22.5%-56.2% respectively, while that in Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi would increase by 13.0%-49.0% and 21.3%-62.9% respectively in the future. The NPP of Quercus spp. forest and R. pseudoacacia plantation under the RCP8.5 scenario was the highest, followed by that under the RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. Those two types of forest would be carbon sink in three subregions in the future. Quercus spp. forest would have stronger carbon sink function in nor-thern Shaanxi and Guanzhong, while R. pseudoacacia plantation would have stronger carbon sink function in Southern Shaanxi. Under different RCP scenarios, the NEP variation range of R. pseu-doacacia plantation was greater than that of Quercus spp. forest in three subregions.}, }
@article {pmid31529747, year = {2019}, author = {Osland, MJ and Feher, LC}, title = {Winter climate change and the poleward range expansion of a tropical invasive tree (Brazilian pepper - Shinus terebinthifolius).}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14842}, pmid = {31529747}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Winter climate change is expected to lead to the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems, where tropical species expand poleward in response to a decrease in the intensity and duration of winter temperature extremes (i.e., freeze events). In the southeastern United States, freezing temperatures control the northern range limits of many invasive non-native species. Here, we examine the influence of freezing temperatures and winter climate change on the northern range limits of an invasive non-native tree - Schinus terebenthifolius (Brazilian pepper). Since introduction in the 1800s, Brazilian pepper has invaded ecosystems throughout south and central Florida to become the state's most widespread non-native plant species. Although Brazilian pepper is sensitive to freezing temperatures, temperature controls on its northern distribution have not been adequately quantified. We used temperature and plant occurrence data to quantify the sensitivity of Brazilian pepper to freezing temperatures. Then, we examined the potential for range expansion under three alternative future climate scenarios (+2°C, +4°C, and +6°C). Our analyses identify a strong nonlinear sigmoidal relationship between minimum temperature and Brazilian pepper presence, with a discrete threshold temperature occurring near -11°C. Our future scenario analyses indicate that, in response to warming winter temperatures, Brazilian pepper is expected to expand northward and transform ecosystems in north Florida and across much of the Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic coasts of the United States. These results underscore the importance of early detection and rapid response efforts to identify and manage the northward invasion of Brazilian pepper in response to climate change. Looking more broadly, our work highlights the need to anticipate and prepare for the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by tropical invasive species.}, }
@article {pmid31527780, year = {2019}, author = {Anderson, K and Jewell, J}, title = {Debating the bedrock of climate-change mitigation scenarios.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {573}, number = {7774}, pages = {348-349}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02744-9}, pmid = {31527780}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31527251, year = {2019}, author = {Fu, YB and Peterson, GW and Horbach, C and Konkin, DJ and Beiles, A and Nevo, E}, title = {Elevated mutation and selection in wild emmer wheat in response to 28 years of global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1909564116}, pmid = {31527251}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Global warming has been documented to threaten wild plants with strong selection pressures, but how plant populations respond genetically to the threats remains poorly understood. We characterized the genetic responses of 10 wild emmer wheat (Triticum dicoccoides Koern.; WEW) populations in Israel, sampling them in 1980 and again in 2008, through an exome capture analysis. It was found that these WEW populations were under elevated selection, displayed reduced diversity and temporal divergence, and carried increased mutational burdens forward. However, some populations still showed the ability to acquire beneficial alleles via selection or de novo mutation for future adaptation. Grouping populations with mean annual rainfall and temperature revealed significant differences in most of the 14 genetic estimates in either sampling year or over the 28 y. The patterns of genetic response to rainfall and temperature varied and were complex. In general, temperature groups displayed more temporal differences in genetic response than rainfall groups. The highest temperature group had more deleterious single nucleotide polymorphisms (dSNPs), higher nucleotide diversity, fewer selective sweeps, lower differentiation, and lower mutational burden. The least rainfall group had more dSNPs, higher nucleotide diversity, lower differentiation and higher mutational burden. These characterized genetic responses are significant, allowing not only for better understanding of evolutionary changes in the threatened populations, but also for realistic modeling of plant population adaptability and vulnerability to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid31526962, year = {2019}, author = {Awazi, NP and Tchamba, MN and Avana, TM}, title = {Climate change resiliency choices of small-scale farmers in Cameroon: determinants and policy implications.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {250}, number = {}, pages = {109560}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109560}, pmid = {31526962}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate variability and change has continued to wreak havoc on the agricultural sector, with small-scale farmers being the most hard-hit. The limited adaptive capacity of small-scale farmers faced with the impacts of climate variability and change principally explains their high level of vulnerability. It is within this framework that this study sought to examine the specific resiliency choices of small-scale farmers faced with climate variability and change in Cameroon, and the plausible policy implications. Data was collected through a survey of 300 small-scale farmer household heads as well as climate data collected from meteorological stations. Data analysis was run on Microsoft Excel 2007 and SPSS 20, employing descriptive and inferential statistics. Findings showed significant fluctuations in climate parameters in recent years. The main resiliency choices of small-scale farmers faced with climate variability and change were on-farm practices (23%), off-farm practices (19%), and agroforestry practices (28%); with 30% of the sampled farmers taking to the no resiliency option. A statistically significant (p < 0.01; p < 0.05; and p < 0.10) causal and non-causal relationship was found to exist between independent variables (household size, age of household head, number of farms, farm size, household income, farm experience, gender, experience of extreme weather events, access to weather information, access to extension services, access to credit, distance to market, access to land, and membership in farming group) and small-scale farmers' practice of different resiliency options faced with climate variability and change. This shows that small-scale farmers' practice of different resiliency options faced with climate variability and change is determined by past experience of extreme weather/climate events as well as socio-economic and institutional factors. On the basis of these findings, it is recommended that policy makers factor in these determinants when taking actions geared towards enhancing small-scale farmers' resilience to climate variability and change.}, }
@article {pmid31526961, year = {2019}, author = {Galappaththi, EK and Ford, JD and Bennett, EM and Berkes, F}, title = {Climate change and community fisheries in the arctic: A case study from Pangnirtung, Canada.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {250}, number = {}, pages = {109534}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109534}, pmid = {31526961}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Coastal fishery systems in the Arctic are undergoing rapid change. This paper examines the ways in which Inuit fishers experience and respond to such change, using a case study from Pangnirtung, Canada. The work is based on over two years of fieldwork, during which semi-structured interviews (n = 62), focus group discussions (n = 6, 31 participants) and key informant interviews (n = 25) were conducted. The changes that most Inuit fishers experience are: changes in sea-ice conditions, Inuit people themselves, the landscape and the seascape, fish-related changes, and changes in weather conditions, markets and fish selling prices. Inuit fishers respond to change individually as well as collectively. Fishers' responses were examined using the characteristics of a resilience-based conceptual framework focusing on place, human agency, collective action and collaboration, institutions, indigenous and local knowledge systems, and learning. Based on results, this paper identified three community-level adaptive strategies, which are diversification, technology use and fisheries governance that employs a co-management approach. Further, this work recognised four place-specific attributes that can shape community adaptations, which are Inuit worldviews, Inuit-owned institutions, a culture of sharing and collaborating, and indigenous and local knowledge systems. An examination of the ways in which Inuit fishers experience and respond to change is essential to better understand adaptations to climate change. This study delivers new insights to communities, scientists, and policymakers to work together to foster community adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31525752, year = {2019}, author = {Bosch, D}, title = {Death, Taxes, and Global Warming.}, journal = {Annals of internal medicine}, volume = {171}, number = {6}, pages = {438}, doi = {10.7326/M19-0949}, pmid = {31525752}, issn = {1539-3704}, }
@article {pmid31524985, year = {2019}, author = {Bishop, J}, title = {Climate change.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {55}, number = {9}, pages = {1151}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.14569}, pmid = {31524985}, issn = {1440-1754}, }
@article {pmid31520376, year = {2019}, author = {Luqman, M and Soytas, U and Peng, S and Huang, S}, title = {Sharing the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation via Shapley value.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-06409-y}, pmid = {31520376}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {This paper examines the free rider problem that exists in the joint effort to mitigate climate change. There is a need to develop a model that is stable and that provides evidence of an objective burden sharing rule so that the environmental agreement is more acceptable. This study approaches this problem via a cooperative game at the global level to make International Environmental Agreements (IEA) more stable. For this purpose, we apply the Shapley value transfer mechanism and find that under the commitment scenario, some regions attain the maximum benefits by joining the coalition. Shapley value transfer improves the coalition size and increases the global benefits at a certain level of abatement under perfect cooperation. Imperfect cooperation leads to lower levels of global benefits. Our findings offer new implications on how to improve the international cooperation for climate change. Commitments by major regions could activate the IEA (e.g., Paris agreement) efficiently. For the maximum global response to climate change, the national governments must reformulate and implement policies to meet their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs). The results of this study also help the national governments to set their implementation priorities to implement the Paris Accord at global level.}, }
@article {pmid31518432, year = {2019}, author = {Yezli, S and Khan, A and Bouchama, A}, title = {Summer Hajj pilgrimage in the era of global warming: a call for vigilance and better understanding of the risks.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jtm/taz069}, pmid = {31518432}, issn = {1708-8305}, }
@article {pmid31517958, year = {2019}, author = {Rivara, FP and Fihn, SD}, title = {Climate Change and Health: JAMA Network Open Call for Papers.}, journal = {JAMA network open}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {e1912502}, doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.12502}, pmid = {31517958}, issn = {2574-3805}, }
@article {pmid31515385, year = {2019}, author = {Hagedorn, F and Gavazov, K and Alexander, JM}, title = {Above- and belowground linkages shape responses of mountain vegetation to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {365}, number = {6458}, pages = {1119-1123}, doi = {10.1126/science.aax4737}, pmid = {31515385}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Upward shifts of mountain vegetation lag behind rates of climate warming, partly related to interconnected changes belowground. Here, we unravel above- and belowground linkages by drawing insights from short-term experimental manipulations and elevation gradient studies. Soils will likely gain carbon in early successional ecosystems, while losing carbon as forest expands upward, and the slow, high-elevation soil development will constrain warming-induced vegetation shifts. Current approaches fail to predict the pace of these changes and how much they will be modified by interactions among plants and soil biota. Integrating mountain soils and their biota into monitoring programs, combined with innovative comparative and experimental approaches, will be crucial to overcome the paucity of belowground data and to better understand mountain ecosystem dynamics and their feedbacks to climate.}, }
@article {pmid31514024, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, Y and Wang, Q and Wang, Z and Yang, Y and Li, J}, title = {Impact of human activities and climate change on the grassland dynamics under different regime policies in the Mongolian Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {698}, number = {}, pages = {134304}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134304}, pmid = {31514024}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {To mitigate the grassland degradation in the Mongolian Plateau (MP), both China and Mongolia governments have carried out a series of new policies and ecological projects. However, the effect of such restoration measures on the productivity of grassland in the MP under different political systems remains unclear. Here we study the effects of land use and land cover change, human activities and climate change on the net primary productivity (NPP) of grassland in Mongolia (MG) and Inner Mongolia (IM) from 2001 to 2014. Results showed that the area of grassland increased in both MG and IM, accounted for 4.45 × 104 and 10.31 × 104 km2, respectively. The extended grassland contributed 4.34 × 108 Gg C (Gg = 109 g) to the total NPP, while the loss of grassland led to a decrease of 0.19 × 108 Gg C. The total NPP of grasslands in 2014 increased about 17.88% and 30.49% respectively in MG and IM since 2001. Specifically, IM exhibited a higher increase in land converted NPP than MG. The area of grassland restoration in IM and MG accounted for 90.21% and 81.45%, respectively, indicating that the grassland of the MP was restored. Although human activity was the dominant factor on grassland degradation, which was accounted for 9.79% and 18.55% in IM and MG, it has a positive effect on most of the grassland NPP in the MP. Overall, policy measures and ecological projects in IM brought a more positive effect compared with that in MG.}, }
@article {pmid31513997, year = {2019}, author = {Azadi, Y and Yazdanpanah, M and Mahmoudi, H}, title = {Understanding smallholder farmers' adaptation behaviors through climate change beliefs, risk perception, trust, and psychological distance: Evidence from wheat growers in Iran.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {250}, number = {}, pages = {109456}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109456}, pmid = {31513997}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change (CC) poses severe threats to the agriculture sector in developing countries. ‏Increasing empirical evidence has confirmed that adaptation strategies to CC at the farm level can significantly reduce the negative impacts of CC and minimize vulnerability. Consequently, understanding adaptation to CC has become a major concern for farmers to facilitate adaptation actions and assist them in improving their adaptive capacity. In this context, this study investigated the most prominent psychological drivers of, and impediments to, adaptation responses. To this end, 350 farmers from Kermanshah district in western of Iran were selected as our sample through a multi-stage, stratified, random sampling method. Structural equation modeling found a complex relationship between overall CC belief, risk perception, psychological distance, trust and risk salience, and farmers' adaptation behaviors. Climate risk perception, trust, and psychological distance were much more effective in driving farmers' adaptation behaviors. The findings yield recommendations for public policy and risk communication that could encourage adaptation behaviors among Iranian farmers.}, }
@article {pmid31512173, year = {2019}, author = {Colombo, SM and Rodgers, TFM and Diamond, ML and Bazinet, RP and Arts, MT}, title = {Projected declines in global DHA availability for human consumption as a result of global warming.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-019-01234-6}, pmid = {31512173}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {04537-2014//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; 124042-12//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, abstract = {Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) is an essential, omega-3, long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid that is a key component of cell membranes and plays a vital role in vertebrate brain function. The capacity to synthesize DHA is limited in mammals, despite its critical role in neurological development and health. For humans, DHA is most commonly obtained by eating fish. Global warming is predicted to reduce the de novo synthesis of DHA by algae, at the base of aquatic food chains, and which is expected to reduce DHA transferred to fish. We estimated the global quantity of DHA (total and per capita) currently available from commercial (wild caught and aquaculture) and recreational fisheries. The potential decrease in the amount of DHA available from fish for human consumption was modeled using the predicted effect of established global warming scenarios on algal DHA production and ensuing transfer to fish. We conclude that an increase in water temperature could result, depending on the climate scenario and location, in a ~ 10 to 58% loss of globally available DHA by 2100, potentially limiting the availability of this critical nutrient to humans. Inland waters show the greatest potential for climate-warming-induced decreases in DHA available for human consumption. The projected decrease in DHA availability as a result of global warming would disproportionately affect vulnerable populations (e.g., fetuses, infants), especially in inland Africa (due to low reported per capita DHA availability). We estimated, in the worst-case scenario, that DHA availability could decline to levels where 96% of the global population may not have access to sufficient DHA.}, }
@article {pmid31508521, year = {2019}, author = {Atsbha, T and Belayneh Desta, A and Zewdu, T}, title = {Carbon sequestration potential of natural vegetation under grazing influence in Southern Tigray, Ethiopia: implication for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {5}, number = {8}, pages = {e02329}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e02329}, pmid = {31508521}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The management influence on carbon sequestration potential of different land use types are least known at the national level. This research was conducted to assess the impact of area exclusion on carbon sequestration potential in the two land use systems: protected natural vegetation (PNV) and communal grazing land (CGL). Data of vegetation, litter, and soils were collected using systematic sampling methods, laying 19 transects and 62 quadrats each with 20 m × 20 m for trees, 5 m × 5 m sub-quadrats for shrubs, and 1 m × 1m sub-quadrats for herbs/grasses, litter biomass, and soil sample. Aboveground biomass carbon (AGC), belowground biomass carbon (BGC), soil organic carbon (SOC), and total carbon stock (TC) were estimated using allometric equations. The mean difference level of carbon stocks (P < 0.05) of the two land use systems was tested through unequal variance t-test using R-software. The mean above ground and below ground carbon stock of PNV, 21.05 ton/ha, 10.39 ton/ha, was higher than CGL, 15.31 ton/ha, 7.65 ton/ha, respectively. The average values of SOC was 16.60 ton/ha from PNV and 13.76 ton/ha from CGL. The mean value of SOC was higher at the PNV than CGL and significantly different (P < 0.05). The total carbon stock estimate of PNV and CGL were 50.74 ton/ha and 37.11 ton/ha, respectively, which is significantly different (P < 0.05). We concluded that, establishment of PNV as the best practice of restoration programs through exclusion of livestock from free grazing and human interference provides cost effective mechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity conservation, livelihood support, and climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid31505366, year = {2019}, author = {Li, J and Fan, G and He, Y}, title = {Predicting the current and future distribution of three Coptis herbs in China under climate change conditions, using the MaxEnt model and chemical analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {698}, number = {}, pages = {134141}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134141}, pmid = {31505366}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The rhizomes of Coptis chinensis Franch., Coptis deltoidea C. Y. Cheng et Hsiao and Coptis teeta Wall, are sources of renowned traditional Chinese medicines. Recently, human activities and climate change has caused degeneration of the natural habitats of these pharmacological plants. Analyzing the impact of climate change on the possible distribution of Coptis herbs is essential for their future conservation and domestication. The purpose of this study was to predict the potential distribution of these valuable plants and identify the potential effects of climate change on three Coptis species, using of species distribution modeling (SDM). In this study, we first predict the distribution size variations of the three plant species, under present and future conditions. Secondly, we carried out field sampling of these three species and analyzed the chemical composition by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Results show that the predicted distributions of all three Coptis herbs were not limit to the reported regions, but also cover other potential areas. Among the environmental variables, annual precipitation range (Bio2) induced the largest impact on SDMs for C. chinensis (72.2%) and C. deltoidea (37.9%), while C. teeta was more significantly affected by isothermally (Bio3, 39.2%). When comparing the possible future distribution to the present distribution of these species, a decreasing tendency was observed in the highly suitable areas of C. chinensis and the generally suitable areas of C. teeta, indicating that the environmental changes would affect the distribution of these two species. In addition, the average alkaloid content was found to be the highest in highly suitable areas, while it was decreased in moderately and generally suitable areas, indicating that alkaloid content may be related to environmental factors. In summary, these findings improve our understanding of the ecological impact of climate on the distribution of three Coptis species.}, }
@article {pmid31504086, year = {2019}, author = {Magkos, F and Tetens, I and Bügel, SG and Felby, C and Schacht, SR and Hill, JO and Ravussin, E and Astrup, A}, title = {A Perspective on the Transition to Plant-Based Diets: a Diet Change May Attenuate Climate Change, but Can It Also Attenuate Obesity and Chronic Disease Risk?.}, journal = {Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/advances/nmz090}, pmid = {31504086}, issn = {2156-5376}, abstract = {Current dietary guidelines advocate more plant-based, sustainable diets on the basis of scientific evidence about diet-health relations but also to address environmental concerns. Here, we critically review the effects of plant-based diets on the prevalence of obesity and other health outcomes. Plant-based diets per se have limited efficacy for the prevention and treatment of obesity, but most have beneficial effects in terms of chronic disease risk. However, with the considerable possibilities of translating plant-based diets into various types of dietary patterns, our analysis suggests that potential adverse health effects should also be considered in relation to vulnerable groups of the population. A transition to more plant-based diets may exert beneficial effects on the environment, but is unlikely to affect obesity, and may also have adverse health effects if this change is made without careful consideration of the nutritional needs of the individual relative to the adequacy of the dietary intake.}, }
@article {pmid31502733, year = {2019}, author = {Cazelles, K and Bartley, T and Guzzo, MM and Brice, MH and MacDougall, AS and Bennett, JR and Esch, EH and Kadoya, T and Kelly, J and Matsuzaki, SI and Nilsson, KA and McCann, KS}, title = {Homogenization of freshwater lakes: recent compositional shifts in fish communities are explained by gamefish movement and not climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14829}, pmid = {31502733}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Globally, lake fish communities are being subjected to a range of scale-dependent anthropogenic pressures, from climate change to eutrophication, and from over-exploitation to species introductions. As a consequence, the composition of these communities is being reshuffled, in most cases leading to a surge in taxonomic similarity at the regional scale termed homogenization. The drivers of homogenization remain unclear, which may be a reflection of interactions between various environmental changes. In this study, we investigate two potential drivers of the recent changes in the composition of freshwater fish communities: recreational fishing and climate change. Our results, derived from 524 lakes of Ontario, Canada sampled in two periods (1965-1982 and 2008-2012), demonstrate that the main contributors to homogenization are the dispersal of gamefish species, most of which are large predators. Alternative explanations relating to lake habitat (e.g., area, phosphorus) or variations in climate have limited explanatory power. Our analysis suggests that human-assisted migration is the primary driver of the observed compositional shifts, homogenizing freshwater fish community among Ontario lakes and generating food webs dominated by gamefish species.}, }
@article {pmid31501506, year = {2019}, author = {Saupe, EE and Myers, CE and Townsend Peterson, A and Soberón, J and Singarayer, J and Valdes, P and Qiao, H}, title = {Spatio-temporal climate change contributes to latitudinal diversity gradients.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-019-0962-7}, pmid = {31501506}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {DGR01020//Leverhulme Trust/ ; 1601878//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 31772432//National Science Foundation of China | Key Programme/ ; }, abstract = {The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), where the number of species increases from the poles to the Equator, ranks among the broadest and most notable biodiversity patterns on Earth. The pattern of species-rich tropics relative to species-poor temperate areas has been recognized for well over a century, but the generative mechanisms are still debated vigorously. We use simulations to test whether spatio-temporal climatic changes could generate large-scale patterns of biodiversity as a function of only three biological processes-speciation, extinction and dispersal-omitting adaptive niche evolution, diversity-dependence and coexistence limits. In our simulations, speciation resulted from range disjunctions, whereas extinction occurred when no suitable sites were accessible to species. Simulations generated clear LDGs that closely match empirical LDGs for three major vertebrate groups. Higher tropical diversity primarily resulted from higher low-latitude speciation, driven by spatio-temporal variation in precipitation rather than in temperature. This suggests that spatio-temporal changes in low-latitude precipitation prompted geographical range disjunctions over Earth's history, leading to high rates of allopatric speciation that contributed to LDGs. Overall, we show that major global biodiversity patterns can derive from interactions of species' niches (fixed a priori in our simulations) with dynamic climate across complex, existing landscapes, without invoking biotic interactions or niche-related adaptations.}, }
@article {pmid31501425, year = {2019}, author = {Riddell, EA and Roback, EY and Wells, CE and Zamudio, KR and Sears, MW}, title = {Thermal cues drive plasticity of desiccation resistance in montane salamanders with implications for climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4091}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-11990-4}, pmid = {31501425}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Organisms rely upon external cues to avoid detrimental conditions during environmental change. Rapid water loss, or desiccation, is a universal threat for terrestrial plants and animals, especially under climate change, but the cues that facilitate plastic responses to avoid desiccation are unclear. We integrate acclimation experiments with gene expression analyses to identify the cues that regulate resistance to water loss at the physiological and regulatory level in a montane salamander (Plethodon metcalfi). Here we show that temperature is an important cue for developing a desiccation-resistant phenotype and might act as a reliable cue for organisms across the globe. Gene expression analyses consistently identify regulation of stem cell differentiation and embryonic development of vasculature. The temperature-sensitive blood vessel development suggests that salamanders regulate water loss through the regression and regeneration of capillary beds in the skin, indicating that tissue regeneration may be used for physiological purposes beyond replacing lost limbs.}, }
@article {pmid31499344, year = {2019}, author = {Ciceu, A and Popa, I and Leca, S and Pitar, D and Chivulescu, S and Badea, O}, title = {Climate change effects on tree growth from Romanian forest monitoring Level II plots.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {698}, number = {}, pages = {134129}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134129}, pmid = {31499344}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Forest health status is negatively influenced by climate change, air pollution and other disturbances. Extreme droughts reduce stand productivity, increase vulnerability to pests, and can even provoke mortality. Growth dynamics at tree and forest stand levels are considered the main indicators of stability and productivity in forest ecosystem structures. The main climate drivers for tree growth were identified using basal area increment (BAI) as a synthetic indicator. BAI chronologies were obtained from increment cores for 1960-2012 period. Six species were analysed in an attempt to identify their growth limiting factors. For the most important oak species in Romania, resilience components were computed in order to analyse their response to drought events. Moreover, growth dynamics were analysed for two species in mixed and monoculture forests. The results suggest that - in comparison to Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica, the sensitivity of Quercus spp. is much higher (0.3-0.47). Oakspecies situated in the most drought-affected areas are sensitive to rainfall values from the previous autumn, current spring, and early summer, with April monthly values having the most significant effect on BAI increment (r = 0.47*) The most sensitive species to drought is Q. cerris and Q. frainetto. Their BAI reduction during drought is >50% compared with the BAI values before the drought period. The recovery capacity of tree growth following drought events is lower for Q. robur and Q. petraea and higher for Q. cerris and Q. frainetto. The mixed forest stands have not showed a constant higher resistance to drought.}, }
@article {pmid31497853, year = {2019}, author = {Pearson, D and Ebisu, K and Wu, X and Basu, R}, title = {A Review of Coccidioidomycosis in California: Exploring the Intersection of Land-use, Population Movement, and Climate Change.}, journal = {Epidemiologic reviews}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/epirev/mxz004}, pmid = {31497853}, issn = {1478-6729}, abstract = {California has seen a surge in coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever), a disease spread by the Coccidioides Immitis fungus found in soil throughout the state, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. In this paper, we reviewed epidemiologic studies examining outbreak and sporadic cases of coccidioidomycosis and considered their possible relationship to environmental conditions, particularly the state's growing aridity, drought and wildfire conditions. Most of the studies we reviewed pertained to cases occupationally-acquired in construction, military, archeological and correctional institutional settings where workers faced exposure to dust in Coccidioides Immitis-endemic areas. A few reviewed outbreaks in the general population related to dust exposure from natural disasters, including an earthquake-associated landslide and a dust storm that carried particles long distances from endemic areas. Although many of California's coccidioidomycosis outbreaks have been occupationally-related, changing demographics and new, immunologically-naive populations in dry, endemic areas could expose the general population to Coccidioides Immitis spores. Given the high rate of infection among largely healthy workers, the general population, comprised of some elderly and immunocompromised individuals, could face additional risk. With climate-related events like drought and wildfires also increasing in endemic areas, future research is needed to address the possible associations between these phenomena and coccidioidomycosis outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid31494727, year = {2019}, author = {Kwak, SS}, title = {Biotechnology of the sweetpotato: ensuring global food and nutrition security in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Plant cell reports}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00299-019-02468-0}, pmid = {31494727}, issn = {1432-203X}, }
@article {pmid31493576, year = {2019}, author = {Tudoran, GM and Zotta, M}, title = {Adapting the planning and management of Norway spruce forests in mountain areas of Romania to environmental conditions including climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {698}, number = {}, pages = {133761}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133761}, pmid = {31493576}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In Romania, natural Norway spruce forests are spread across upper mountain slopes (1300-1800 m). They perform multiple functions, being especially recognised for their economic value. However, where planted forests extend beyond the spruce's naturally occurring areas, they are frequently exposed to deleterious environmental factors. In Romania, forest planning is based on typological studies that were carried out between 1950 and 1970, and the regulations are applied in a somewhat flexible manner. In the context of the potential threats from climate change that could amplify induced destabilising phenomena, the risks to which these forests are becoming exposed can only be mediated through flexible management and the permanent adaptation of forest planning. For this reason, the purpose of this study was to develop a strategy for adapting forest management plan guidelines, with a view to improving ecosystem stability. A Norway spruce forest was chosen from the south-eastern Carpathians, which is included in the Natura 2000 Fagaras Mountains site. The models on which we based our current stand compositions resulted from long-term monitoring and analysis of species and stand structures. Stand structure - and forest structure, in general - is key to the continuous existence of stand functions and ecosystem services. Through design decisions, we promote biodiversity and the natural, better adapted, regeneration of local provenances. We highlight the rationale behind forest management planning and its regulations, with respect to the sustainable management of Norway spruce forests, which are vulnerable to potential changes in their structure as a result of climate change. Based on our findings, we propose the adaptation of measures used in forest management planning for Norway spruce forests to include protective functions that can be applied to all man-made Norway spruce forests introduced in former beech forest regions, and mixed coniferous/beech forests, that are vulnerable to changing environmental factors.}, }
@article {pmid31493149, year = {2019}, author = {Jeihouni, E and Mohammadi, M and Eslamian, S and Zareian, MJ}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater level through hybrid soft-computing methods: a case study-Shabestar Plain, Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {10}, pages = {620}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-019-7784-6}, pmid = {31493149}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {Groundwater aquifers have always been confronted with significant challenges around the world such as climate change, over-extraction, pollution by wastewaters, and saltwater intrusion in coastal areas. Prediction of groundwater level under the effects of climate change is more important in water resource management. This study has therefore been evaluated the effects of two climate parameters (i.e., precipitation and temperature) in groundwater level for the Shabestar Plain, Iran. For this end, four models from General Circulation Models (GCM) were then used to evaluate future climate change scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathway (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). In the next phase, to reduce the spatial complexity of observation wells, clustering analysis was used. In case of groundwater level modeling, time series in the base period, Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous inputs (NARX) were also used. To improve the prediction accuracy, time series preprocessing made by wavelet-based de-noising approach was used. Analysis of the results illustrates an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation for study region in the future period times. The results also reveal that hybrid techniques of the wavelet-NARX give best results in comparison with the other models. A simulation result illustrates that the groundwater level declines in RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, which gives average levels of 0.61, 0.81, and 1.53 m, respectively, for the future period years (i.e., 2020-2024). These results would lead to continuous groundwater depletion. These findings emphasize the necessity of the importance of extraction policies in water resource management.}, }
@article {pmid31492929, year = {2019}, author = {Sultan, B and Defrance, D and Iizumi, T}, title = {Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {12834}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-49167-0}, pmid = {31492929}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Achieving food security goals in West Africa will depend on the capacity of the agricultural sector to feed the rapidly growing population and to moderate the adverse impacts of climate change. Indeed, a number of studies anticipate a reduction of the crop yield of the main staple food crops in the region in the coming decades due to global warming. Here, we found that crop production might have already been affected by climate change, with significant yield losses estimated in the historical past. We used a large ensemble of historical climate simulations derived from an atmospheric general circulation model and two process-based crop models, SARRA-H and CYGMA, to evaluate the effects of historical climate change on crop production in West Africa. We generated two ensembles of 100 historical simulations of yields of sorghum and millet corresponding to two climate conditions for each crop model. One ensemble is based on a realistic simulation of the actual climate, while the other is based on a climate simulation that does not account for human influences on climate systems (that is, the non-warming counterfactual climate condition). We found that the last simulated decade, 2000-2009, is approximately 1 °C warmer in West Africa in the ensemble accounting for human influences on climate, with more frequent heat and rainfall extremes. These altered climate conditions have led to regional average yield reductions of 10-20% for millet and 5-15% for sorghum in the two crop models. We found that the average annual production losses across West Africa in 2000-2009 associated with historical climate change, relative to a non-warming counterfactual condition (that is, pre-industrial climate), accounted for 2.33-4.02 billion USD for millet and 0.73-2.17 billion USD for sorghum. The estimates of production losses presented here can be a basis for the loss and damage associated with climate change to date and useful in estimating the costs of the adaptation of crop production systems in the region.}, }
@article {pmid31491025, year = {2019}, author = {Kirk, MA and Galatowitsch, ML and Wissinger, SA}, title = {Seasonal differences in climate change explain a lack of multi-decadal shifts in population characteristics of a pond breeding salamander.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {9}, pages = {e0222097}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0222097}, pmid = {31491025}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {There is considerable variation among studies that evaluate how amphibian populations respond to global climate change. We used 23 years of annual survey data to test whether changes in climate have caused predictable shifts in the phenology and population characteristics of adult spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) during spring breeding migrations. Although we observed year-to-year correlation between seasonal climate variables and salamander population characteristics, there have not been long-term, directional shifts in phenological or population characteristics. Warm winters consistently resulted in early migration dates, but across the 23-year study, there was no overall shift towards warmer winters and thus no advanced migration timing. Warm summers and low variability in summer temperatures were correlated with large salamander body sizes, yet an overall shift towards increasing body sizes was not observed despite rising summer temperatures during the study. This was likely due to the absence of long-term changes of within-year variation in summer temperatures, which was a stronger determinant of body size than summer temperature alone. Climate-induced shifts in population characteristics were thus not observed for this species as long-term changes in important seasonal climate variables were not observed during the 23-years of the study. Different amphibian populations will likely be more resilient to climate change impacts than others, and the probability of amphibians exhibiting long-term population changes will depend on how seasonal climate change interacts with a species' life history, phenology, and geographic location. Linking a wide range of seasonal climatic conditions to species or population characteristics should thus improve our ability for explaining idiosyncratic responses of species to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31488398, year = {2019}, author = {Iacobucci, G}, title = {NHS to step up efforts to tackle &quot;health emergency&quot; of climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {l5458}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l5458}, pmid = {31488398}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid31487789, year = {2019}, author = {Fox, M and Zuidema, C and Bauman, B and Burke, T and Sheehan, M}, title = {Integrating Public Health into Climate Change Policy and Planning: State of Practice Update.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {18}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16183232}, pmid = {31487789}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Policy action in the coming decade will be crucial to achieving globally agreed upon goals to decarbonize the economy and build resilience to a warmer, more extreme climate. Public health has an essential role in climate planning and action: &quot;Co-benefits&quot; to health help underpin greenhouse gas reduction strategies, while safeguarding health-particularly of the most vulnerable-is a frontline local adaptation goal. Using the structure of the core functions and essential services (CFES), we reviewed the literature documenting the evolution of public health's role in climate change action since the 2009 launch of the US CDC Climate and Health Program. We found that the public health response to climate change has been promising in the area of assessment (monitoring climate hazards, diagnosing health status, assessing vulnerability); mixed in the area of policy development (mobilizing partnerships, mitigation and adaptation activities); and relatively weak in assurance (communication, workforce development and evaluation). We suggest that the CFES model remains important, but is not aligned with three concepts-governance, implementation and adjustment-that have taken on increasing importance. Adding these concepts to the model can help ensure that public health fulfills its potential as a proactive partner fully integrated into climate policy planning and action in the coming decade.}, }
@article {pmid31481736, year = {2019}, author = {Dannenberg, AL and Rogerson, B and Rudolph, L}, title = {Optimizing the health benefits of climate change policies using health impact assessment.}, journal = {Journal of public health policy}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1057/s41271-019-00189-y}, pmid = {31481736}, issn = {1745-655X}, abstract = {Health impact assessment (HIA) is a tool that can be used to examine the potential health impacts of proposed climate change policies and offer recommendations to promote health and mitigate adverse health consequences of such policies. We used an HIA database, a literature search, and expert consultation to identify 12 HIAs of the proposed climate change policies from six states in the U.S. These policies included cap-and-trade legislation, heat-wave and sea-level-rise mitigation and adaptation, transportation policy impacts of climate change, carbon-reduction strategy scenarios, soil- and water-conservation strategies, urban forest canopy for climate adaptation, overheating buildings, and regional transportation plan and sustainable communities strategies. In four descriptive summaries, we found that HIAs foster stakeholder engagement and provide useful health-promoting recommendations. HIAs can facilitate cross-sector collaboration, help optimize the health co-benefits of climate change policies, and raise awareness among decision makers of health impacts of those proposed policies.}, }
@article {pmid31481618, year = {2019}, author = {Wan, X and Jiang, G and Yan, C and He, F and Wen, R and Gu, J and Li, X and Ma, J and Stenseth, NC and Zhang, Z}, title = {Historical records reveal the distinctive associations of human disturbance and extreme climate change with local extinction of mammals.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1818019116}, pmid = {31481618}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Accelerated anthropogenic impacts and climatic changes are widely considered to be responsible for unprecedented species extinction. However, determining their effects on extinction is challenging owing to the lack of long-term data with high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, using historical occurrence records of 11 medium- to large-sized mammal species or groups of species in China from 905 BC to AD 2006, we quantified the distinctive associations of anthropogenic stressors (represented by cropland coverage and human population density) and climatic stressors (represented by air temperature) with the local extinction of these mammals. We found that both intensified human disturbances and extreme climate change were associated with the increased local extinction of the study mammals. In the cold phase (the premodern period of China), climate cooling was positively associated with increased local extinction, while in the warm phase (the modern period) global warming was associated with increased local extinction. Interactive effects between human disturbance and temperature change with the local extinction of elephants, rhinos, pandas, and water deer were found. Large-sized mammals, such as elephants, rhinos, and pandas, showed earlier and larger population declines than small-sized ones. The local extinction sensitivities of these mammals to the human population density and standardized temperature were estimated during 1700 to 2000. The quantitative evidence for anthropogenic and climatic associations with mammalian extinction provided insights into the driving processes of species extinction, which has important implications for biodiversity conservation under accelerating global changes.}, }
@article {pmid31481431, year = {2019}, author = {Vogel, L}, title = {Canada's doctors tackle financial stressors, climate change at annual meeting.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {191}, number = {35}, pages = {E973-E974}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.1095812}, pmid = {31481431}, issn = {1488-2329}, }
@article {pmid31481245, year = {2019}, author = {Parry, L and Radel, C and Adamo, SB and Clark, N and Counterman, M and Flores-Yeffal, N and Pons, D and Romero-Lankao, P and Vargo, J}, title = {The (in)visible health risks of climate change.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {112448}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2019.112448}, pmid = {31481245}, issn = {1873-5347}, abstract = {This paper scrutinizes the assertion that knowledge gaps concerning health risks from climate change are unjust, and must be addressed, because they hinder evidence-led interventions to protect vulnerable populations. First, we construct a taxonomy of six inter-related forms of invisibility (social marginalization, forced invisibility by migrants, spatial marginalization, neglected diseases, mental health, uneven climatic monitoring and forecasting) which underlie systematic biases in current understanding of these risks in Latin America, and advocate an approach to climate-health research that draws on intersectionality theory to address these inter-relations. We propose that these invisibilities should be understood as outcomes of structural imbalances in power and resources rather than as haphazard blindspots in scientific and state knowledge. Our thesis, drawing on theories of governmentality, is that context-dependent tensions condition whether or not benefits of making vulnerable populations legible to the state outweigh costs. To be seen is to be politically counted and eligible for rights, yet evidence demonstrates the perils of visibility to disempowered people. For example, flood-relief efforts in remote Amazonia expose marginalized urban river-dwellers to the traumatic prospect of forced relocation and social and economic upheaval. Finally, drawing on research on citizenship in post-colonial settings, we conceptualize climate change as an 'open moment' of political rupture, and propose strategies of social accountability, empowerment and trans-disciplinary research which encourage the marginalized to reach out for greater power. These achievements could reduce drawbacks of state legibility and facilitate socially-just governmental action on climate change adaptation that promotes health for all.}, }
@article {pmid31480860, year = {2019}, author = {You, M and Ju, Y}, title = {Comparing Outrage Effect on the Risk Perception of Climate Change versus Fine Dust.}, journal = {Health communication}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-8}, doi = {10.1080/10410236.2019.1662555}, pmid = {31480860}, issn = {1532-7027}, abstract = {Public evaluation of risk is influenced by the emotive response to perceived risk characteristics, namely outrage factors. We evaluated which outrage factors contribute to the public perception of two different environmental risks, climate change and fine dust. In particular, the outrage factors of controllability, familiarity, and delayed effect were assessed to determine if they are more salient and influential for climate change than fine dust. A nationwide online survey (N = 1,000) was conducted to measure nine outrage factors and risk perception for both risks in a South Korean population. Although both environmental risks were associated with a similar level of risk perception, catastrophic potential and personal stake were the highest scoring outrage factors for climate change and fine dust, respectively, and were also the strongest influence for the level of each risk perception. Familiarity was more salient for climate change than fine dust, and was influential only for climate change. Delayed effect was more salient for climate change, but was not influential for the perception of both risks. Controllability was more salient for fine dust but had no significant influence on both risk perceptions. Catastrophic potential, dread, personal stake, and trust were common influential outrage factors for both risks. We discuss the significance of an individualistic approach to evaluating outrage effects. In addition, the practical implications of comparing salient and influential outrage factors for both risks were addressed in terms of risk communication.}, }
@article {pmid31480473, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, L and Jing, Z and Li, Z and Liu, Y and Fang, S}, title = {Predictive Modeling of Suitable Habitats for Cinnamomum Camphora (L.) Presl Using Maxent Model under Climate Change in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {17}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16173185}, pmid = {31480473}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {201506//Special Project of S&amp;T Innovation of Jiangxi Forestry Department/ ; 20171ACH80016//Jiangxi Provincial Key R&amp;D Plan/ ; }, abstract = {Rapid changes in global climate exert tremendous pressure on forest ecosystems. Cinnamomum camphora (L.) Presl is a multi-functional tree species, and its distribution and growth are also affected by climate warming. In order to realize its economic value and ecological function, it is necessary to explore the impact of climate change on its suitable habitats under different scenarios. In this experiment, 181 geographical distribution data were collected, and the MaxEnt algorithm was used to predict the distribution of suitable habitats. To complete the simulation, we selected two greenhouse gas release scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and also three future time periods, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s. The importance of environmental variables for modeling was evaluated by jackknife test. Our study found that accumulated temperature played a key role in the distribution of camphor trees. With the change of climate, the area of suitable range will increase and continue to move to the northwest of China. These findings could provide guidance for the plantation establishment and resource protection of camphor in China.}, }
@article {pmid31479906, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, D and Cui, B and Duan, S and Chen, J and Fan, H and Lu, B and Zheng, J}, title = {Moving north in China: The habitat of Pedicularis kansuensis in the context of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {697}, number = {}, pages = {133979}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133979}, pmid = {31479906}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Pedicularis kansuensis is a poisonous grass and a semi-parasitic plant that has spread rapidly in alpine grasslands in recent years and caused great harm to animal husbandry and the ecological environment. However, little is known about the habitat of P. kansuensis and the key environmental factors that influence its expansion. We assessed the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of P. kansuensis in China under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and MigClim for the years 2050 and 2070 and examined key environmental factors affecting P. kansuensis distribution. In total, 118 occurrence points and fourteen selected variables were used for the modeling. The models developed for P. kansuensis showed excellent performance (AUC > 0.9 and TSS > 0.90). The results were as follows. 1) The occupied habitats for P. kansuensis in the four climate scenarios were generally offset in the northward direction. 2) The most important environmental variables influencing the spread of P. kansuensis were altitude, annual precipitation, annual temperature range, precipitation in the warmest quarter and ultraviolet-B radiation seasonality (UVB-2). 3) Under RCP 2.6, the occupied habitat would be increased 0.04% by 2050 and would be increased to 0.51% by 2070. Under RCP 8.5, the average occupied habitat was predicted to increase 0.07% by 2050 and increase to 0.53% by 2070. The increase was relatively higher in the occupied habitats located in the southwestern regions (Sichuan, Xizang and Yunnan) than those in the northwestern regions (Gansu and Xinjiang).}, }
@article {pmid31479899, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, C and Huang, Y and Javed, A and Arhonditsis, GB}, title = {An ensemble modeling framework to study the effects of climate change on the trophic state of shallow reservoirs.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {697}, number = {}, pages = {134078}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134078}, pmid = {31479899}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Our understanding of the potential impact of climatic change on catchment hydrology and aquatic system dynamics has been advanced over the past decade, but there are still considerable knowledge gaps with respect to its effects on water quality vis-à-vis the increasing demands for drinking water. In this study, we developed an integrated hydrological-water quality (SWAT-YRWQM) model to elucidate the effects of a changing climate on the trophic state of the shallow Yuqiao Reservoir. Using a two-step downscaling process, we reproduced the prevailing meteorological conditions, as well as the streamflows in three major tributaries of the study area. A sensitivity analysis exercise showed that the nature of the calibration dataset used, namely the range of flows (i.e., dry versus wet years) included, can profoundly influence the predictive power of our modeling framework. Our climatic scenarios projected a minor change of the streamflow rates, but a variant degree of increase of the riverine total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and associated loading rates into the reservoir. Consequently, a significant rise of in-lake TP concentrations is projected for the near (2016-2030) and distant (2031-2050) future compared to the reference (2006-2015) conditions. Interestingly, the ambient TP levels appear to be lower in the distant relative to the near future, owing to changes in the magnitude and relative contribution of both external and internal nutrient loading sources. Our analysis also highlights the importance of reservoir operation practices to regulate water levels as a means for mitigating the climate change impact on the trophic status of the Yuqiao Reservoir, given that the diversion of low-nutrient water from the upstream basin can significantly reduce (30-40%) the TP concentrations. Our findings are highly relevant to the on-going debate about the potential implications of climate change for water availability, highlighting the importance of adaptation strategies to optimize the water resources management.}, }
@article {pmid31478173, year = {2019}, author = {Hussain, M and Butt, AR and Uzma, F and Ahmed, R and Rehman, A and Ali, MU and Ullah, H and Yousaf, B}, title = {Divisional disparities on climate change adaptation and mitigation in Punjab, Pakistan: local perceptions, vulnerabilities, and policy implications.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-06262-z}, pmid = {31478173}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {41672144//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; WK2080000103//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; 2018FYB0002//CAS-Young Scientist Award/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global challenge faced by everyone, but the developing countries are highly vulnerable to variations in the environment. This research focuses on the Punjab province of Pakistan and evaluates the impacts and consequences of climate change on general public at local and divisional level. In order to cope with the impacts of climatic changes at all levels, especially divisional level, raising reliable awareness and dispersing actionable knowledge regarding mitigating and adapting measures is significantly important. Therefore, recognition of information gaps, improvements in the level of alertness, and development of preventive measures in each sector is imperative. The impacts of climate change are observed across the country through gradual increase in temperature, human health issues, pest diseases, droughts, floods, and irregular weather patterns leading to changes in lifestyles, and these issues are likely to continue in the future. The main cause of climate change in Punjab, Pakistan, can be attributed to excessive release of greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere due to human activities involving inefficient energy usage, rapid urban expansion, improper waste management, industrial development, increasing transportation, agricultural activities, and livestock mismanagement. The findings of this study revealed that transportation sector is the major source of GHG emissions in the country, followed by industrialization and waste, at national, as well as divisional, level. The extent of impacts of climate change at divisional level is distinguishable and displayed a direct relationship with climate, geography, variation of effects, and modes of production in various regions of Punjab. The study strategically investigated all nine divisions of the province for comprehensive understanding of climate change phenomenon, and the results indicated that nearly three-fourths of the respondents have never indulged in taking steps towards climate change mitigation and adaptation. The study adopted a mixed (qualitative and quantitative) approach where the findings can act as set of guidelines for governmental authorities in formulating, assisting in preparation, instructing, and guiding policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation at national, local, and divisional levels. Graphical abstract.}, }
@article {pmid31477849, year = {2019}, author = {Troia, MJ and Kaz, AL and Niemeyer, JC and Giam, X}, title = {Species traits and reduced habitat suitability limit efficacy of climate change refugia in streams.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {9}, pages = {1321-1330}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-019-0970-7}, pmid = {31477849}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {Climate change vulnerability depends on whether organisms can disperse rapidly enough to keep pace with shifting temperatures and find suitable habitat along the way. Here, we develop a method to examine where and for which species shifting isotherms will outpace species dispersal using stream networks of the southern Appalachian Mountains (United States) and their highly speciose and endemic fish fauna as a model system. By exploring alternative tributary and mainstem dispersal pathways, we identify tributaries as slow-climate-velocity pathways along which some fish can successfully disperse and thus keep pace with climate change. Despite accessibility and thermal suitability, non-temperature habitat conditions in tributaries are unsuitable for some dispersing species, thus probably precluding establishment of persistent populations. Our findings demonstrate a trade-off shaping the efficacy of thermal refugia that depends on species-specific habitat associations and reveal individual-level dispersal behaviour, body size and stream network geometry as general correlates of climate change vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid31475774, year = {2019}, author = {Tombre, IM and Oudman, T and Shimmings, P and Griffin, L and Prop, J}, title = {Northward range expansion in spring-staging barnacle geese is a response to climate change and population growth, mediated by individual experience.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14793}, pmid = {31475774}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Norwegian Institute for Nature Research/ ; //Norwegian Environment Agency/ ; 134716/720//The Research Council of Norway/ ; 165836//The Research Council of Norway/ ; 204342//The Research Council of Norway/ ; EVK2-2001-00235//The European Union/ ; //The County Governor of Nordland, Norway/ ; //Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust/ ; //The Fram Centre/ ; 019.172EN.011//Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research/ ; }, abstract = {All long-distance migrants must cope with changing environments, but species differ greatly in how they do so. In some species, individuals might be able to adjust by learning from individual experiences and by copying others. This could greatly speed up the process of adjustment, but evidence from the wild is scarce. Here, we investigated the processes by which a rapidly growing population of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) responded to strong environmental changes on spring-staging areas in Norway. One area, Helgeland, has been the traditional site. Since the mid-1990s, an increasing number of geese stage in another area 250 km further north, Vesterålen. We collected data on goose numbers and weather conditions from 1975 to 2017 to explore the extent to which the increase in population size and a warmer climate contributed to this change in staging area use. During the study period, the estimated onset of grass growth advanced on average by 0.54 days/year in each of the two areas. The total production of digestible biomass for barnacle geese during the staging period increased in Vesterålen but remained stable in Helgeland. The goose population has doubled in size during the past 25 years, with most of the growth being accommodated in Vesterålen. The observations suggest that this dramatic increase would not have happened without higher temperatures in Vesterålen. Records of individually marked geese indicate that from the initial years of colonization onwards, especially young geese tended to switch to Vesterålen, thereby predominating in the flocks at Vesterålen. Older birds had a lower probability of switching to Vesterålen, but over the years, the probability increased for all ages. Our findings suggest that barnacle geese integrate socially learned behaviour with adjustments to individual experiences, allowing the population to respond rapidly and accurately to global change.}, }
@article {pmid31475018, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmed, S and Griffin, TS and Kraner, D and Schaffner, MK and Sharma, D and Hazel, M and Leitch, AR and Orians, CM and Han, W and Stepp, JR and Robbat, A and Matyas, C and Long, C and Xue, D and Houser, RF and Cash, SB}, title = {Environmental Factors Variably Impact Tea Secondary Metabolites in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {939}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00939}, pmid = {31475018}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change is impacting food and beverage crops around the world with implications for environmental and human well-being. While numerous studies have examined climate change effects on crop yields, relatively few studies have examined effects on crop quality (concentrations of nutrients, minerals, and secondary metabolites). This review article employs a culturally relevant beverage crop, tea (Camelia sinensis), as a lens to examine environmental effects linked to climate change on the directionality of crop quality. Our systematic review identified 86 articles as relevant to the review question. Findings provide evidence that shifts in seasonality, water stress, geography, light factors, altitude, herbivory and microbes, temperature, and soil factors that are linked to climate change can result in both increases and decreases up to 50% in secondary metabolites. A gap was found regarding evidence on the direct effects of carbon dioxide on tea quality, highlighting a critical research area for future study. While this systematic review provides evidence that multiple environmental parameters are impacting tea quality, the directionality and magnitude of these impacts is not clear with contradictory evidence between studies likely due to confounding factors including variation in tea variety, cultivar, specific environmental and agricultural management conditions, and differences in research methods. The environmental factors with the most consistent evidence in this systematic review were seasonality and water stress with 14 out of 18 studies (78%) demonstrating a decrease in concentrations of phenolic compounds or their bioactivity with a seasonal shift from the spring and /or first tea harvest to other seasons and seven out of 10 studies (70%) showing an increase in levels of phenolic compounds or their bioactivity with drought stress. Herbivory and soil fertility were two of the variables that showed the greatest contradictory evidence on tea quality. Both herbivory and soil fertility are variables which farmers have the greatest control over, pointing to the importance of agricultural management for climate mitigation and adaptation. The development of evidence-based management strategies and crop breeding programs for resilient cultivars are called for to mitigate climate impacts on crop quality and overall risk in agricultural and food systems.}, }
@article {pmid31474532, year = {2019}, author = {Froehlich, HE and Afflerbach, JC and Frazier, M and Halpern, BS}, title = {Blue Growth Potential to Mitigate Climate Change through Seaweed Offsetting.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.07.041}, pmid = {31474532}, issn = {1879-0445}, abstract = {Carbon offsetting-receiving credit for reducing, avoiding, or sequestering carbon-has become part of the portfolio of solutions to mitigate carbon emissions, and thus climate change, through policy and voluntary markets, primarily by land-based re- or afforestation and preservation [1, 2]. However, land is limiting, creating interest in a rapidly growing aquatic farming sector of seaweed aquaculture [3-5]. Synthesizing data from scientific literature, we assess the extent and cost of scaling seaweed aquaculture to provide sufficient CO2eq sequestration for several climate change mitigation scenarios, with a focus on the food sector-a major source of greenhouse gases [6]. Given known ecological constraints (nutrients and temperature), we found a substantial suitable area (ca. 48 million km2) for seaweed farming, which is largely unfarmed. Within its own industry, seaweed could create a carbon-neutral aquaculture sector with just 14% (mean = 25%) of current seaweed production (0.001% of suitable area). At a much larger scale, we find seaweed culturing extremely unlikely to offset global agriculture, in part due to production growth and cost constraints. Yet offsetting agriculture appears more feasible at a regional level, especially areas with strong climate policy, such as California (0.065% of suitable area). Importantly, seaweed farming can provide other benefits to coastlines affected by eutrophic, hypoxic, and/or acidic conditions [7, 8], creating opportunities for seaweed farming to act as &quot;charismatic carbon&quot; that serves multiple purposes. Seaweed offsetting is not the sole solution to climate change, but it provides an invaluable new tool for a more sustainable future.}, }
@article {pmid31469634, year = {2019}, author = {Loughlin, KR}, title = {Global warming: the implications for urologic disease.}, journal = {The Canadian journal of urology}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {9806-9808}, pmid = {31469634}, issn = {1195-9479}, abstract = {Global warming is receiving more attention in both the lay and scientific press. However, many individuals still view global warming as an abstract, distant concern that has little, if any, impact on their daily lives. As urologists, it is important to realize that global warming may influence some of the diseases that we treat. Much of the scientific basis for the link between climate and urologic disease is still in its nascent stages. However, a review of the emerging literature suggests that climatic changes may well alter the frequency of some urologic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid31467289, year = {2019}, author = {Petersen, AM and Vincent, EM and Westerling, AL}, title = {Author Correction: Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {3966}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-12061-4}, pmid = {31467289}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid31467005, year = {2019}, author = {Danczak, A}, title = {Climate change emergency.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {69}, number = {686}, pages = {430}, doi = {10.3399/bjgp19X705185}, pmid = {31467005}, issn = {1478-5242}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid31465580, year = {2019}, author = {Trugman, AT and Anderegg, LDL and Sperry, JS and Wang, Y and Venturas, M and Anderegg, WRL}, title = {Leveraging plant hydraulics to yield predictive and dynamic plant leaf allocation in vegetation models with climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14814}, pmid = {31465580}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Plant functional traits provide a link in process-based vegetation models between plant-level physiology and ecosystem-level responses. Recent advances in physiological understanding and computational efficiency have allowed for the incorporation of plant hydraulic processes in large-scale vegetation models. However, a more mechanistic representation of water limitation that determines ecosystem responses to plant water stress necessitates a re-evaluation of trait-based constraints for plant carbon allocation, particularly allocation to leaf area. In this review, we examine model representations of plant allocation to leaves, which is often empirically set by plant functional type-specific allometric relationships. We analyze the evolution of the representation of leaf allocation in models of different scales and complexities. We show the impacts of leaf allocation strategy on plant carbon uptake in the context of recent advancements in modeling hydraulic processes. Finally, we posit that deriving allometry from first principles using mechanistic hydraulic processes is possible and should become standard practice, rather than using prescribed allometries. The representation of allocation as an emergent property of scarce resource constraints is likely to be critical to representing how global change processes impact future ecosystem dynamics and carbon fluxes and may reduce the number of poorly constrained parameters in vegetation models.}, }
@article {pmid31460735, year = {2019}, author = {Michelot, A}, title = {[Chapter 1. Climate justice: addressing the responsibility for climate change.].}, journal = {Journal international de bioethique et d'ethique des sciences}, volume = {Vol. 30}, number = {2}, pages = {17-39}, doi = {10.3917/jibes.302.0017}, pmid = {31460735}, issn = {2608-1008}, abstract = {Chapter 1. Climate justice: addressing the responsibility for climate changeAt the heart of climate justice is research and understanding of the inequalities associated with global warming. By seeking to address all dimensions of vulnerability to climate change, particularly social vulnerability, the concept of climate justice contributes to developing our responsibility to address the climate emergency. However, in an operational approach, climate justice has several approaches depending on who is interested and claims it. From the climate justice demanded to repair an ecological debt, to climate justice as a principle of action recognized and implemented in public policies, many perspectives are emerging to think of a development model that is more united and respectful of the rights of everyone, including the most vulnerable and the most deprived.}, }
@article {pmid31454933, year = {2019}, author = {Smith, CJ}, title = {Pediatric Thermoregulation: Considerations in the Face of Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Nutrients}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/nu11092010}, pmid = {31454933}, issn = {2072-6643}, abstract = {Predicted global climate change, including rising average temperatures, increasing airborne pollution, and ultraviolet radiation exposure, presents multiple environmental stressors contributing to increased morbidity and mortality. Extreme temperatures and more frequent and severe heat events will increase the risk of heat-related illness and associated complications in vulnerable populations, including infants and children. Historically, children have been viewed to possess inferior thermoregulatory capabilities, owing to lower sweat rates and higher core temperature responses compared to adults. Accumulating evidence counters this notion, with limited child-adult differences in thermoregulation evident during mild and moderate heat exposure, with increased risk of heat illness only at environmental extremes. In the context of predicted global climate change, extreme environmental temperatures will be encountered more frequently, placing children at increased risk. Thermoregulatory and overall physiological strain in high temperatures may be further exacerbated by exposure to/presence of physiological and environmental stressors including pollution, ultraviolet radiation, obesity, diabetes, associated comorbidities, and polypharmacy that are more commonly occurring at younger ages. The aim of this review is to revisit fundamental differences in child-adult thermoregulation in the face of these multifaceted climate challenges, address emerging concerns, and emphasize risk reduction strategies for the health and performance of children in the heat.}, }
@article {pmid31454625, year = {2019}, author = {Jactel, H and Koricheva, J and Castagneyrol, B}, title = {Responses of forest insect pests to climate change: not so simple.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {103-108}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2019.07.010}, pmid = {31454625}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Climate change is a multi-faceted phenomenon, including elevated CO2, warmer temperatures, more severe droughts and more frequent storms. All these components can affect forest pests directly, or indirectly through interactions with host trees and natural enemies. Most of the responses of forest insect herbivores to climate change are expected to be positive, with shorter generation time, higher fecundity and survival, leading to increased range expansion and outbreaks. Forest insect pest can also benefit from synergistic effects of several climate change pressures, such as hotter droughts or warmer storms. However, lesser known negative effects are also likely, such as lethal effects of heat waves or thermal shocks, less palatable host tissues or more abundant parasitoids and predators. The complex interplay between abiotic stressors, host trees, insect herbivores and their natural enemies makes it very difficult to predict overall consequences of climate change on forest health. This calls for the development of process-based models to simulate pest population dynamics under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid31454397, year = {2019}, author = {Bradshaw, CD and Hemming, D and Baker, R and Everatt, M and Eyre, D and Korycinska, A}, title = {A novel approach for exploring climatic factors limiting current pest distributions: A case study of Bemisia tabaci in north-west Europe and assessment of potential future establishment in the United Kingdom under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {8}, pages = {e0221057}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0221057}, pmid = {31454397}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Bemisia tabaci (the tobacco whitefly) is an important agricultural pest of global significance primarily because of its ability to transmit multiple damaging plant viruses. To date, UK outbreaks of the whitefly have been restricted to glasshouses and there are no records of the whitefly establishing outdoors during the summer. This is despite the fact that annual degree-day models (that estimate accumulated warmth over the year above the development threshold), indicate that B. tabaci has the thermal potential for multiple summer generations in the UK. A set of 49 climate indices calculated using the present day climate (1986-2015) were therefore compared between the UK and the south of France, where B. tabaci is able to establish outdoors, to identify the factors limiting its establishment. The number of cold days and nights in summer, as well as the time spent within the whitefly's optimum temperature range, were most significantly different between the two areas. These indices may impact the development of B. tabaci and offer an explanation for the absence of the whitefly outdoors in the UK during the summer. Further analyses undertaken with climate projections suggest that in a 2-4°C warmer world this pest could pose a risk to outdoor UK crops in July and August. A clear south-north gradient can be demonstrated for these indices. Linking any possible northwards spread of B. tabaci populations outdoors in France with changes in these indices could therefore provide an important indicator of any change in the risks of outdoor populations of this species developing in the UK. The effectiveness of climate indices in pest risk analysis is compellingly demonstrated, and it is recommended that in-depth comparisons of climatic indices between areas of pest presence and absence are conducted in other situations where forecasting the risks of pest establishment are complex and challenging.}, }
@article {pmid31445412, year = {2019}, author = {Boukal, DS and Bideault, A and Carreira, BM and Sentis, A}, title = {Species interactions under climate change: connecting kinetic effects of temperature on individuals to community dynamics.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {88-95}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2019.06.014}, pmid = {31445412}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Human-induced climate change, dominated by warming trends, poses a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Species interactions relay the direct and indirect effects of climate warming on individuals to communities, and detailed understanding across these levels is crucial to predict ecological consequences of climate change. We provide a conceptual framework that links temperature effects on insect physiology and behaviour to altered species interactions and community dynamics. We highlight key features of this framework with recent studies investigating the impacts of warming climate on insects and other ectotherms and identify methodological, taxonomic and geographic biases. While the effects of increased constant temperatures are now well understood, future studies should focus on temperature variation, interactions with other stressors and cross-system comparisons.}, }
@article {pmid31441014, year = {2019}, author = {Flower, H and Rains, M and Carl Fitz, H and Orem, W and Newman, S and Osborne, TZ and Ramesh Reddy, K and Obeysekera, J}, title = {Shifting Ground: Landscape-Scale Modeling of Biogeochemical Processes under Climate Change in the Florida Everglades.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01200-8}, pmid = {31441014}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Scenarios modeling can be a useful tool to plan for climate change. In this study, we help Everglades restoration planning to bolster climate change resiliency by simulating plausible ecosystem responses to three climate change scenarios: a Baseline scenario of 2010 climate, and two scenarios that both included 1.5 °C warming and 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and differed only by rainfall: either increase or decrease by 10%. In conjunction with output from a water-use management model, we used these scenarios to drive the Everglades Landscape Model to simulate changes in a suite of parameters that include both hydrologic drivers and changes to soil pattern and process. In this paper we focus on the freshwater wetlands; sea level rise is specifically addressed in prior work. The decreased rainfall scenario produced marked changes across the system in comparison to the Baseline scenario. Most notably, muck fire risk was elevated for 49% of the period of simulation in one of the three indicator regions. Surface water flow velocity slowed drastically across most of the system, which may impair soil processes related to maintaining landscape patterning. Due to lower flow volumes, this scenario produced decreases in parameters related to flow-loading, such as phosphorus accumulation in the soil, and methylmercury production risk. The increased rainfall scenario was hydrologically similar to the Baseline scenario due to existing water management rules. A key change was phosphorus accumulation in the soil, an effect of flow-loading due to higher inflow from water control structures in this scenario.}, }
@article {pmid31440182, year = {2019}, author = {Bains, KK and Turnbull, T}, title = {Improving Health Outcomes and Serving Wider Society: The Potential Role of Understanding and Cultivating Prosocial Purpose Within Health Psychology Research and Practice to Address Climate Change and Social Isolation and Loneliness.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1787}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2019.01787}, pmid = {31440182}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Human beings face unprecedented social and environmental challenges which require collective action and changes in health-related behavior. The threat of climate change is becoming an increasingly urgent issue for humanity and the natural environment. Alongside this, there is evidence that loneliness and social isolation can significantly impact cardiovascular health and mortality through direct and indirect processes, for example by increasing risky behaviors. However, one construct that has so far received little attention in health psychology is that of purpose. Purpose is thought to be self-regulatory; it derives from a greater sense of meaning yet is goal-directed and involves a stable and generalized intention toward accomplishment. The development of a sense of purpose is associated with improved mental and physical health. However, it is possible that one facet of purpose, prosocial orientation, may have a particularly beneficial effect on psychological well-being, increasing generativity and personal growth. Prosocial purpose may also help explain the growth in the number of people in the West who are reducing their meat and dairy intake, which may help mitigate climate change. It may also help explain the rise of civic engagement in environmental volunteering and support for conservation amongst some individuals and communities, which can also confer additional health benefits. Cultivating prosocial purpose may aid engagement in behavior change initiatives which may improve individual health and help address these wider social challenges, such as changing one's diet to help address climate change, volunteering and engaging in physical activity outdoors to support the environment, and supporting active engagement with vulnerable groups at risk of social isolation and loneliness. Cultivating prosocial purpose may also support self-advocacy for social changes which can benefit community health. It may be possible to cultivate prosocial purpose through interventions which involve experiential and abstract learning experiences that increase empathy, stimulate reflection and lead to meaning-making processes. This may then facilitate development of a sense of prosocial purpose because meaning-making is thought to be a precursor to purpose development. Doing so may be important to engage populations in efforts to combat climate change and address social isolation and loneliness.}, }
@article {pmid31439853, year = {2019}, author = {Marsooli, R and Lin, N and Emanuel, K and Feng, K}, title = {Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {3785}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z}, pmid = {31439853}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {One of the most destructive natural hazards, tropical cyclone (TC)-induced coastal flooding, will worsen under climate change. Here we conduct climatology-hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the effects of sea level rise (SLR) and TC climatology change (under RCP 8.5) on late 21st century flood hazards at the county level along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. We find that, under the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change, the historical 100-year flood level would occur annually in New England and mid-Atlantic regions and every 1-30 years in southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions in the late 21st century. The relative effect of TC climatology change increases continuously from New England, mid-Atlantic, southeast Atlantic, to the Gulf of Mexico, and the effect of TC climatology change is likely to be larger than the effect of SLR for over 40% of coastal counties in the Gulf of Mexico.}, }
@article {pmid31439311, year = {2019}, author = {Hobbhahn, N and Fears, R and Haines, A and Ter Meulen, V}, title = {Urgent action is needed to protect human health from the increasing effects of climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {8}, pages = {e333-e335}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30114-7}, pmid = {31439311}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid31438984, year = {2019}, author = {Barteit, S and Sié, A and Yé, M and Depoux, A and Louis, VR and Sauerborn, R}, title = {Lessons learned on teaching a global audience with massive open online courses (MOOCs) on health impacts of climate change: a commentary.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {52}, doi = {10.1186/s12992-019-0494-6}, pmid = {31438984}, issn = {1744-8603}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The adverse health impacts of climate change are increasing on a global level. However, knowledge about climate change and health is still unavailable to many global citizens, in particular on adaptation measures and co-benefits of health mitigation. Educational technologies, such as massive open online courses (MOOCs), may have a high potential for providing access to information about climate change links to health for a global audience.<br><br>MAIN BODY: We developed three MOOCs addressing the link between climate change and health to take advantage of the methodology's broad reach and accelerate knowledge dissemination on the nexus of climate change and health. The primary objective was to translate an existing face-to-face short course that only reached a few participants on climate change and health into globally accessible learning opportunities. In the following, we share and comment on our lessons learned with the three MOOCs, with a focus on global teaching in the realm of climate change and health.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the three MOOCs attracted a global audience with diverse educational backgrounds, and a large number of participants from low-income countries. Our experience highlights that MOOCs may play a part in global capacity building, potentially for other health-related topics as well, as we have found that our MOOCs have attracted participants within low-resource contexts. MOOCs may be an effective method for teaching and training global students on health topics, in this case on the complex links and dynamics between climate change and health and may further act as an enabler for equitable access to quality education.}, }
@article {pmid31436438, year = {2019}, author = {Bandura, A and Cherry, L}, title = {Enlisting the power of youth for climate change.}, journal = {The American psychologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1037/amp0000512}, pmid = {31436438}, issn = {1935-990X}, abstract = {Despite efforts by the adult generation to stem the rise of global warming, the planet is getting hotter every year. The present article analyzes, within the framework of social-cognitive theory, highly resourceful youth conducting environmental programs that curtail heat-trapping gases and protect various ecological supports of life. The children's intuitive principles of change closely matched the formal principles of social-cognitive theory. Social media equip youth with unlimited reach and promote large-scale environmental impact. Their ingenious practices provide the foundation for a powerful youth environmental movement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).}, }
@article {pmid31436007, year = {2019}, author = {Layton-Matthews, K and Hansen, BB and Grøtan, V and Fuglei, E and Loonen, MJJE}, title = {Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14773}, pmid = {31436007}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {276080//Research Council of Norway/ ; 244647//Research Council of Norway/ ; 273451//Research Council of Norway/ ; 223257//Research Council of Norway/ ; //Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; //EU/ ; //Organization for Scientific Research NWO/ ; //Ministry of Foreign Affairs/ ; 851.40.071//BIRDHEALTH/ ; 866.12.407//Geese on Arctic Tundra/ ; //Norwegian Polar Institute/ ; //University of Groningen/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population-dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non-hunted population of high-arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual-based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age-specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green-up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non-breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density-dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density-dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study emphasizes the need for holistic approaches when studying population-dynamic responses to global change in migratory species.}, }
@article {pmid31435996, year = {2019}, author = {Hansen, BB and Pedersen, ÅØ and Peeters, B and Le Moullec, M and Albon, SD and Herfindal, I and Saether, BE and Grøtan, V and Aanes, R}, title = {Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long-term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14761}, pmid = {31435996}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {223257//Norges Forskningsråd/ ; 244647//Norges Forskningsråd/ ; 276080//Norges Forskningsråd/ ; }, abstract = {The 'Moran effect' predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large-scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high-Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8-324 km apart suggested that density-dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one 'continental' reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density-dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift-with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity-led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.}, }
@article {pmid31435061, year = {2019}, author = {Rumpel, C}, title = {Soils linked to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {572}, number = {7770}, pages = {442-443}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02450-6}, pmid = {31435061}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31434201, year = {2019}, author = {Jeong, MC and Kim, J}, title = {Prediction and Analysis of Electrical Accidents and Risk Due to Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {16}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16162984}, pmid = {31434201}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {The industrial development and the increase in the use of fossil fuels have been accelerating global warming and climate change, thereby causing more frequent and intense natural disasters than ever before. Since electrical facilities are generally installed outdoors, they are greatly affected by natural disasters, thus accidents related to electrical equipment has been on the rise. In this paper, we present the risk rating associated with climate change by analyzing the statistics of electrical fires, electric shock accidents and electrical equipment accidents caused by domestic climate change. Further, we present a risk rating analysis model for electrical fires on a monthly basis through the data analysis of electrical hazards associated with various regional (metropolitan city) climatic conditions (temperature, humidity), and analyze the accident risk rating for natural disasters related to low and high voltage equipment. Through this risk analysis model for each region and type of equipment, we presented a basic prediction model for electrical hazards. Therefore, it is possible to provide electrical safety services in the future by displaying a risk prediction map of electrical hazards for each region and type of electrical equipment through web sites or smart phone apps using the presented analysis data. Further, efforts should be made to increase the robustness or reliability of electrical equipment in order to prevent electrical accidents caused by natural disasters due to climate change in advance.}, }
@article {pmid31433801, year = {2019}, author = {Lancker, K and Deppenmeier, AL and Demissie, T and Schmidt, JO}, title = {Climate change adaptation and the role of fuel subsidies: An empirical bio-economic modeling study for an artisanal open-access fishery.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {8}, pages = {e0220433}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0220433}, pmid = {31433801}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change can severely impact artisanal fisheries and affect the role they play in food security. We study climate change effects on the triple bottom line of ecological productivity, fishers' incomes, and fish consumption for an artisanal open-access fishery. We develop and apply an empirical, stochastic bio-economic model for the Senegalese artisanal purse seine fishery on small pelagic fish and compare the simulated fishery's development using four climate projections and two policy scenarios. We find that economic processes of adaptation may amplify the effects of climate variations. The regions' catch potential increases with climate change, induced by stock distribution changes. However, this outcome escalates over-fishing, whose effects outpace the incipiently favorable climate change effects under three of the four climate projections. Without policy action, the fishery is estimated to collapse in 2030-2035 on average over 1000 runs. We propose an easily implementable and overall welfare-increasing intervention: reduction of fuel subsidies. If fuel subsidies were abolished, ecological sustainability as well as the fishery's welfare contribution would increase regardless of the climate projection.}, }
@article {pmid31429783, year = {2019}, author = {DeLisi, C}, title = {The role of synthetic biology in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Biology direct}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {14}, doi = {10.1186/s13062-019-0247-8}, pmid = {31429783}, issn = {1745-6150}, support = {not applicable//not applicable/International ; }, abstract = {There is growing agreement that the aim of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, is not likely to be met without inclusion of methods to physically remove atmospheric carbon. A number of approaches have been suggested, but the community appears to be silent on the potential of one of the most revolutionary technologies of the current century, systems and synthetic biology (SSB). The potential of SSB to modulate the fast carbon cycle, and thereby mitigate climate change is in itself enormous, but if the history of genomics is any measure, it is also reasonable to expect sizeable economic returns on any investment. More generally, the approach to climate control has been badly unbalanced. The last three decades have seen intense international attention to emission control, with no parallel plan to test, scale and implement carbon removal technologies, including attention to their economic, legal and ethical implications. REVIEWERS: This article was reviewed by Richard Roberts, Aristides Patrinos, and Eugene Koonin, all of whom were nominated by Itai Yanai. For the full reviews, please go to the Reviewers' comments section.}, }
@article {pmid31429469, year = {2019}, author = {Hanafi-Bojd, AA and Vatandoost, H and Yaghoobi-Ershadi, MR}, title = {Climate Change and the Risk of Malaria Transmission in Iran.}, journal = {Journal of medical entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jme/tjz131}, pmid = {31429469}, issn = {1938-2928}, abstract = {Climate change is an important factor affecting the dynamics of the vectors population and, hence, the risk of vector-borne diseases. This study aimed to predict the environmental suitability for malaria vectors in Iran under climate change scenarios in 2030s and 2050s. Literature search was performed to find documents on the spatial distribution of Anopheles stephensi Liston, 1901, Anopheles culicifacies s.l. Giles, 1901, Anopheles fluviatilis s.l. James, 1902, Anopheles superpictus s.l. Grassi, 1899, Anopheles dthali Patton, 1905, Anopheles maculipennis s.l. Meigen, 1818, and Anopheles sacharovi Favre, 1903 (Diptera: Culicidae) published between 1970 and 2017. The bioclimatic data under three climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathway 2.6 [RCP2.6], RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and MaxEnt model were used to predict the ecological niches for each species. Comparison between the two study periods under the three scenarios for each species revealed that RCP8.5 would reduce the area at risk for An. culicifacies s.l., An. dthali and An. superpictus s.l. in the 2050s compared to the 2030s, but the reverse will be induced by RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. For An. fluviatilis s.l., RCP2.6 will reduce the risk areas in the 2050s, whereas an increase is expected under the two other scenarios. Moreover, all scenarios would decrease the high-risk areas of An. maculipennis s.l. in the 2050s. For An. sacharovi, RCP2.6 would increase its high-risk areas, whereas RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would decrease its exposure. The high-risk area of An. stephensi is expected to increase under RCP8.5 in the 2030s and RCP4.5 in 2050s, but it will be almost unchanged or reduced under other scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid31427425, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, B and Demorest, S and Krzyzanowski, B}, title = {Mitigating a Nursing School's Impact on Climate Change: A Quality Improvement Project.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {e15-e24}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.25.3.e15}, pmid = {31427425}, issn = {1078-4535}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Mitigation is one approach to addressing climate change, which focuses on reducing carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions. Nurses play a critical role in mitigation to prevent the health impacts of climate change. Recommendations to mitigate climate change in higher education institutions reflect four themes: policy, people, process, and practice. This quality improvement project aimed to mitigate a metropolitan nursing school's impacts on climate change.<br><br>METHODS: A Sustainability Champion Workgroup was formed to address gaps identified in the organizational needs assessment. A No Waste November (NWN) campaign and a sustainability dashboard were created to engage participants and increase awareness about climate change and environmentally sustainable behaviors. A pre- and post-NWN survey, adapted from the Nurses' Environmental Awareness Tool, and waste disposal measurements over 6 weeks were used to assess the impact of these interventions.<br><br>RESULTS: The post-NWN survey showed the greatest increases in mean scores for the following environmentally sustainable behaviors: biking, walking, carpooling, or taking public transportation to work; leading or participating in recycling initiatives; serving on committees that purchase sustainable supplies; and composting. Waste disposal measurements revealed a higher proportion of recycling to landfill waste during 5 out of the 6 weeks of measurement.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Nurses and higher education institutions play an important role in mitigating the human impacts on climate change through environmental sustainability initiatives. Barriers to adopting environmentally sustainable behaviors and incentives to support these behaviors also need to be examined and addressed in future projects.}, }
@article {pmid31427424, year = {2019}, author = {Connerton, CS and Wooton, AK}, title = {Building Community Resilience to Mitigate Mental Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {e9-e14}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.25.3.e9}, pmid = {31427424}, issn = {1078-4535}, abstract = {As global warming is taking effect, the number of natural disasters such as hurricanes, tornados, flooding, drought, and wildfires is increasing. The purpose of this article is to address the impacts of climate change on human health, using a model developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The effects of natural disasters on mental health, and actions nurses can take to help build strong, resilient communities, are discussed in detail. Increasing awareness and building resilience will improve health outcomes. Strong social connections are a key component of community resilience. Strengthening the infrastructure of communities can mitigate the impact of climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid31427423, year = {2019}, author = {Wasco, JJ}, title = {Strategies for Teaching Online RN-to-BSN Students the Health Impacts of Climate Change.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {e1-e8}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.25.3.e1}, pmid = {31427423}, issn = {1078-4535}, abstract = {The impact of climate change on human health is projected to worsen over the next century, threatening the world's population. Nurses need to be knowledgeable about the causes of climate change and its direct and indirect health consequences, to be able to provide appropriate care and to advocate for policy change. More now than ever, nursing faculty are charged with the responsibility to educate future health professionals about this important topic. This article provides an introduction to the impacts of climate change on nursing care delivery and shares the pedagogy of an introductory course developed for an online, postlicensure RN-BSN program based at a university with deep roots in environmental sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid31427421, year = {2019}, author = {Chalupka, S and Anderko, L}, title = {Climate Change and Schools: Implications for Children's Health and Safety.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {249-257}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.25.3.249}, pmid = {31427421}, issn = {1078-4535}, abstract = {The predicted impacts of climate change are fast becoming a reality and are already adversely affecting human health and health systems. Events such as flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires are challenging communities to re-evaluate whether their schools provide a safe, healthy environment. Among the populations most vulnerable to the impacts of our changing climate are our children. Nurses are key to supporting mitigation and adaptation efforts to promote more resilient school environments, using approaches based on values of the common good and social justice.}, }
@article {pmid31427416, year = {2019}, author = {Demorest, S and Spengeman, S and Schenk, E and Cook, C and Weston, HL}, title = {The Nurses Climate Challenge: A National Campaign to Engage 5,000 Health Professionals Around Climate Change.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {208-215}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.25.3.208}, pmid = {31427416}, issn = {1078-4535}, abstract = {Climate change poses significant threats to human health and worsens existing inequities. The health sector is a significant contributor to climate change, making up approximately 10% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Yet most nurses do not learn about the health dangers of climate change in their education or in practice, and therefore are ill-equipped to lead action on climate change. When educated about climate change, nurses can effectively lead climate adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed at creating healthier populations. As the most trusted professionals and making up 40% of the health-care workforce, nurses have the potential to impact behavior change and launch a movement around climate solutions. Health Care Without Harm and the Alliance of Nurses for Healthy Environments partnered on the &quot;Nurses Climate Challenge&quot; with the aim of nurses educating 5,000 health professionals on climate and health. In the Nurses Climate Challenge, nurses register as Nurse Climate Champions and gain access to online resources to plan and host educational sessions about climate change. After educating, Nurse Climate Champions return to the online platform to track their progress. Within 10 months, over 540 Nurse Climate Champions from 6 continents, 16 countries, and 42 U.S. states registered for access to the resources. To date, the champions have educated over 5,250 colleagues and students about climate and health. Based on early metrics, this model of education and engagement around climate action may be applicable for other disciplines in health care and beyond.}, }
@article {pmid31427414, year = {2019}, author = {Morgan, RE}, title = {Determined Action to Tackle Health Determinants: A Collaborative Response to the Challenge of Climate Change Mitigation in Practice Settings.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {195-200}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.25.3.195}, pmid = {31427414}, issn = {1078-4535}, abstract = {The physical environment has long been understood as a major determinant of health and well-being. In recent years, the relationship between health and the environment has become particularly pronounced, with the impacts of climate change identified as having the potential to reverse the last 50 years of public health advancement (Watts et al., 2015). Increasingly, professional bodies within health care are called upon to frame climate change as a health issue. Despite this, studies have found that nurses report feeling ill-equipped to respond to environmental changes and the resulting health impacts (Anåker, Nilsson, Holmner, &amp; Elf, 2015; Lewis, 2018; Polivka, Chaudry, &amp; Mac Crawford, 2011). This article recognizes some of the barriers facing concerned health-care professionals who wish to introduce climate mitigation activities within their sphere of professional operation. The Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation (Victorian Branch) was approached by nurses, midwives, and carers, to become more involved in policy debates surrounding climate change and to provide stronger support to members in responding to environmental issues. The result is top-down and bottom-up responses working in synergy for climate change mitigation, by empowering nurses to make changes to their professional practice.}, }
@article {pmid31427413, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {Building a Global Movement for Health: Nurse Leadership on Climate Change.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {191-194}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.25.3.191}, pmid = {31427413}, issn = {1078-4535}, }
@article {pmid31427045, year = {2019}, author = {Sueur, J and Krause, B and Farina, A}, title = {Climate Change Is Breaking Earth's Beat.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2019.07.014}, pmid = {31427045}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {Forests, deserts, rivers, and oceans are filled with animal vocalizations and geological sounds. We postulate that climate change is changing the Earth's natural acoustic fabric. In particular, we identify shifts in acoustic structure that all sound-sensitive organisms, marine and terrestrial, may experience. Only upstream solutions might mitigate these acoustic changes.}, }
@article {pmid31425325, year = {2019}, author = {Saberi, P and Nabeel, I and Cook-Shimanek, M and McCarthy, R and Guidotti, T and Pensa, MA and Perkison, WB and , }, title = {&quot;How can Climate Change Impact the Workplace and Worker Health?&quot; Part 3: Air Pollution, Greenhouse Gases, and Cardiorespiratory Health.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000001694}, pmid = {31425325}, issn = {1536-5948}, }
@article {pmid31423312, year = {2019}, author = {Choi, F and Gouhier, T and Lima, F and Rilov, G and Seabra, R and Helmuth, B}, title = {Mapping physiology: biophysical mechanisms define scales of climate change impacts.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coz028}, doi = {10.1093/conphys/coz028}, pmid = {31423312}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {The rocky intertidal zone is a highly dynamic and thermally variable ecosystem, where the combined influences of solar radiation, air temperature and topography can lead to differences greater than 15°C over the scale of centimetres during aerial exposure at low tide. For most intertidal organisms this small-scale heterogeneity in microclimates can have enormous influences on survival and physiological performance. However, the potential ecological importance of environmental heterogeneity in determining ecological responses to climate change remains poorly understood. We present a novel framework for generating spatially explicit models of microclimate heterogeneity and patterns of thermal physiology among interacting organisms. We used drone photogrammetry to create a topographic map (digital elevation model) at a resolution of 2 × 2 cm from an intertidal site in Massachusetts, which was then fed into to a model of incident solar radiation based on sky view factor and solar position. These data were in turn used to drive a heat budget model that estimated hourly surface temperatures over the course of a year (2017). Body temperature layers were then converted to thermal performance layers for organisms, using thermal performance curves, creating 'physiological landscapes' that display spatially and temporally explicit patterns of 'microrefugia'. Our framework shows how non-linear interactions between these layers lead to predictions about organismal performance and survivorship that are distinct from those made using any individual layer (e.g. topography, temperature) alone. We propose a new metric for quantifying the 'thermal roughness' of a site (RqT, the root mean square of spatial deviations in temperature), which can be used to quantify spatial and temporal variability in temperature and performance at the site level. These methods facilitate an exploration of the role of micro-topographic variability in driving organismal vulnerability to environmental change using both spatially explicit and frequency-based approaches.}, }
@article {pmid31423035, year = {2019}, author = {Lickley, M and Cael, BB and Solomon, S}, title = {Time of Steady Climate Change.}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {46}, number = {10}, pages = {5445-5451}, doi = {10.1029/2018GL081704}, pmid = {31423035}, issn = {0094-8276}, abstract = {Under an emission scenario where atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized, previous work suggests that on centennial time scales the rate of global temperature increases would steady at significantly lower rates than those of the 21st century. As climate change is not globally uniform, regional differences in achieving this steady rate of warming can be expected. Here, we define a &quot;Time of Steady Change&quot; (TSC) as the time of reaching this steady rate of warming, and we present a method for estimating TSC with the use of General Circulation Model experiments run under greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios. We find that TSC occurs latest in low latitudes and in the Arctic, despite these areas steadying at very different absolute warming rates. These broad patterns are robust across multiple General Circulation Model ensembles and alternative definitions of TSC. These results indicate large regional differences in the trajectory of climate change in coming centuries.}, }
@article {pmid31422880, year = {2019}, author = {Suggitt, AJ and Lister, DG and Thomas, CD}, title = {Widespread Effects of Climate Change on Local Plant Diversity.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.06.079}, pmid = {31422880}, issn = {1879-0445}, abstract = {Human activity has sent many measures of biodiversity into long-term decline, and there are suggestions that the sheer scale of this impact is sufficient to consider the modern era as a geological epoch of its own, known as &quot;The Anthropocene&quot; [1]. However, recent meta-analyses show that local alpha diversity is often stable or slightly increasing [2-4]. Here, we show that the local alpha diversity (species richness) of plants found in quadrats and transects has increased the most in cooler regions of the world that have experienced the highest absolute changes (i.e., changes in either direction) in climate. The greatest statistical support is for the effects of precipitation change. On average, alpha diversity declined slightly (-4.2% per decade) in the third of sites that experienced the lowest precipitation change but increased (+10.8% per decade) in the third of sites with the highest precipitation change. These results suggest that the &quot;perturbation&quot; of local communities during climatic transitions increases the average number of species, at least temporarily, an effect likely to remain important as climate change continues.}, }
@article {pmid31421561, year = {2019}, author = {Fastelli, P and Renzi, M}, title = {Exposure of key marine species to sunscreens: Changing ecotoxicity as a possible indirect effect of global warming.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {149}, number = {}, pages = {110517}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.110517}, pmid = {31421561}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {Sunscreens can induce ecotoxicological effects and may cause significant impacts in the aquatic ecosystem. In spite of that, ecotoxicological responses of key marine species to sunscreens are scarcely studied in Mediterranean ecosystems, and literature data are lacking. Furthermore, changes in water salinity induced by global warming could significantly affect the ecotoxicological responses of marine species exposed to sunscreens. This research focuses on the evaluation of ecotoxicological responses of Phaeodactylum tricornutum (algae), Corophium orientalis (macroinvertebrate), and Paracentrotus lividus (echinoderms) exposed to sunscreens, which include both chemical- and physical-based. This study, also, analyzes the changes in ecotoxicological responses of the tested species linked to increase in salinity. Results showed that salinity stress significantly increases the toxicity of sunscreens on the tested marine species. Physical-based sunscreens resulted in more toxicity at higher salinity than chemical-based ones toward C. orientalis and P. tricornutum. This study evidenced that risk classifications of sunscreens recorded under standard salinity conditions could be significantly different from that recorded in the natural environment under salinity stress. The collection of a complete dataset on the ecotoxicological effects of sunscreens on marine species tested under salinity stress could be useful to correctly weigh risks for the marine environment under possible future ecological changing scenarios following the global changing driver.}, }
@article {pmid31421346, year = {2019}, author = {Küttim, M and Laine, AM and Küttim, L and Ilomets, M and Robroek, BJM}, title = {Winter climate change increases physiological stress in calcareous fen bryophytes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {695}, number = {}, pages = {133867}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133867}, pmid = {31421346}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Calcareous spring fens are among the rarest and most endangered wetland types worldwide. The majority of these ecosystems can be found at high latitudes, where they are affected by above average rates of climate change. Particularly winter temperatures are increasing, which results in decreased snow cover. As snow provides an insulating layer that protects ecosystems from subzero temperatures, its decrease is likely to induce stress to plants. To investigate the sensitivity of the bryophyte community - key to the functioning of calcareous spring fens - to changing climatic conditions, we studied the annual variation in ecophysiology of two dominant bryophytes: Campylium stellatum and Scorpidium scorpioides. Further, a snow removal experiment was used to simulate the effect of changing winter conditions. In both species, we observed lowest efficiency of photosystem II (Fv/Fm) in spring, indicating physiological stress, and highest chlorophyll-a, -b and carotenoid concentrations in autumn. Snow removal exacerbated physiological stress in bryophytes. Consequently Fv/Fm, pigment concentrations and chlorophyll to carotenoids ratios declined, while chlorophyll-a to -b ratios increased. Moreover, these effects of winter climate change cascaded to the growing season. C. stellatum, a low hummock inhabitor, suffered more from snow removal (annual mean decline in Fv/Fm 7.7% and 30.0% in chlorophyll-a) than S. scorpioides, a hollow species (declines 5.4% and 14.5%, respectively). Taken together, our results indicate that spring fen bryophytes are negatively impacted by winter climate change, as a result of longer frost periods and increased numbers of freeze-thaw cycles in combination with higher light intensity and dehydration.}, }
@article {pmid31419836, year = {2019}, author = {Rodríguez-González, A and Zanin, M and Menasalvas-Ruiz, E}, title = {Public Health and Epidemiology Informatics: Can Artificial Intelligence Help Future Global Challenges? An Overview of Antimicrobial Resistance and Impact of Climate Change in Disease Epidemiology.}, journal = {Yearbook of medical informatics}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {224-231}, doi = {10.1055/s-0039-1677910}, pmid = {31419836}, issn = {2364-0502}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To provide an oveiview of the current application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the field of public health and epidemiology, with a special focus on antimicrobial resistance and the impact of climate change in disease epidemiology. Both topics are of vital importance and were included in the &quot;Ten threats to global health in 2019&quot; report published by the World Health Organization.<br><br>METHODS: We analysed publications that appeared in the last two years, between January 2017 and October 2018. Papers were searched using Google Scholar with the following keywords: public health, epidemiology, machine learning, data analytics, artificial intelligence, disease surveillance, climate change, antimicrobial resistance, and combinations thereof. Selected articles were organised by theme.<br><br>RESULTS: In spite of a large interest in AI generated both within and outside the scientific community, and of the many opinions pointing towards the importance of a better use of data in public health, few papers have been published on the selected topics in the last two years. We identify several potential reasons, including the complexity of the integration of heterogeneous data, and the lack of sound and unbiased validation procedures.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: As there is a better comprehension of AI and more funding available, artificial intelligence will become not only the centre of attention in informatics, but more importantly the source of innovative solutions for public health.}, }
@article {pmid31419684, year = {2019}, author = {Kokkoris, IP and Bekri, ES and Skuras, D and Vlami, V and Zogaris, S and Maroulis, G and Dimopoulos, D and Dimopoulos, P}, title = {Integrating MAES implementation into protected area management under climate change: A fine-scale application in Greece.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {695}, number = {}, pages = {133530}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.336}, pmid = {31419684}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Increasing anthropogenic pressures often jeopardize ecosystem integrity and policy-relevant conservation management in protected areas. To harmonize nature conservation with human well-being, EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 suggests Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES) as the key concept for environmental planning and management in EU Member States. Applying this procedure is challenging due to its data-demanding and multidisciplinary nature, resulting in the ecoystem services (ES) approach being scarcely used in protected areas management. Increased data availability under EU biodiversity-related inventories and monitoring projects, as well as theoretical and empirical research advances developed during the last decade, should be put into practice to guide Member States towards local management frameworks and scenario building under the ongoing changes in the EU socio-economic environment. This study aims at filling this gap by embodying into the MAES operational framework a scenario-based approach and demonstrates this in a challenging case study of a Natura 2000 site, Lake Stymfalia, in Greece. The present management strategy, an ecological-friendly management practice, a water-efficient management practice and a non-environmentally friendly option (e.g. ecosystem destruction) are examined for current and future water demand under current and future climatic scenarios. The proposed methodological framework for ES operationalization is based on the available data (derived by EU Directives and/or modelling), expert judgment and stakeholder involvement. Therefore, this work applies and tests the importance of the MAES approach as a management and coordination platform.}, }
@article {pmid31418249, year = {2019}, author = {Jiang, LH and Gao, JQ and Wan, JZ}, title = {[Potential habitat and priority protection area of cranes with climate change in the Great Xing'an Mountains, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {2457-2469}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201907.040}, pmid = {31418249}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {To clarify the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of six crane species in the Great Xing'an Mountains region, and promote the effective protection of these species, we selected key environmental variables such as climate, topography, and vegetation type based on Pearson correlation and Jackknife analysis, and modeled the potential distribution of six crane species in the Great Xing'an Mountains using MaxEnt with the current and the future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We identified the priority protection areas (PPAs) and the target PPAs by zonation and ArcGIS. The results showed that with the current climate condition, the sui-table habitats of these species were mainly distributed in the central and the northwest part of the Great Xing'an Mountains. With RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the suitable habitats of Grus monacha, Grus japonensis, Grus vipio, Grus grus and Anthropoides virgo would decrease, while that of Grus leucogeranus would expand by 5.4%-6.3%. With current and the future climate change scenarios, the PPAs of these species were mainly distributed in the northwest, southeast and west-central parts of the Great Xing'an Mountains. The protect rate could reach about 20.1%-23.8% of the target PPAs conserved by protected areas (PAs). The protection gaps were mainly distributed in the west of Mohe County, the north-central of Ergun, the central and east of Genhe, the northeast of Yakeshi, and the south of Oroqen Autonomous Banner. We proposed to expand PAs to provide a strong guarantee for the effective protection of cranes species.}, }
@article {pmid31418225, year = {2019}, author = {Qiao, JJ and Wang, T and Pan, L and Sun, YJ}, title = {[Responses of radial growth to climate change in Pinus massoniana at different altitudes and slopes.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {2231-2240}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201907.011}, pmid = {31418225}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Pinus/*growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; Trees ; }, abstract = {With dendrochronology method, standard and residual chronologies of Pinus massoniana were established at low altitude (260 m), middle altitude (460 m), high altitude (690 m), sunny slope (270 m), and shady slope (265 m). Relationships between the tree-ring width and the climatic factors were quantified using correlation analysis and redundancy analysis (RDA). The optimal multiple regression models for the radial growth of P. massoniana and the climatic factors were established. We analyzed the change rule of radial growth and its relationship with the climatic factors along with the altitude and slope. The results showed that the radial growth of P. massoniana was significantly affected by precipitation and temperature across the altitude gradient and the slope level, respectively. Among the 120 climatic variables, precipitation in December of last year and the extreme minimum temperature in February of current year had the most significant negative effects on the radial growth at different altitudes and slopes, respectively. This study quantitatively described the impacts of climate change on the radial growth of P. massoniana in the subtropical region, and provided a scientific basis for the planting and management of P. massoniana forest in Jiangle Country under the climate warming background.}, }
@article {pmid31418224, year = {2019}, author = {Han, JS and Zhao, HY and Zhu, LJ and Zhang, YD and Li, ZS and Wang, XC}, title = {[Comparing the responses of radial growth between Quercus mongolica and Phellodendron amurense to climate change in Xiaoxing'an Mountains, China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {2218-2230}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201907.012}, pmid = {31418224}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Phellodendron/*growth &amp; development ; Quercus/*growth &amp; development ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Quercus mongolica and Phellodendron amurense are two important broad-leaved species in temperate forests of Northeast China. It is critical to explore their responses to climate change for supporting management, protection, and restoration of the broad-leaved forest in Northeast China under the future climate change scenario. Three sampling sites along a longitude gradient, Heilun, Tieli and Yichun, were set up in the Xiaoxing'an Mountains. Dendrochronological methods were used to establish standard chronologies for Q. mongolica and P. amurense. Correlation analyses were conducted between these chronologies and local climatic factors to establish the spatial and temporal variations in growth-climate relationship of Q. mongolica and P. amurense. The results showed that the radial growth of P. amurense was sensitive to temperature, while that of Q. mongolica was limi-ted by both temperature and precipitation. The temperature sensitivities of these two species were different. High spring temperature inhibited the radial growth of Q. mongolica, but promoted that of P. amurense. The limiting effect of high maximum temperature in summer on radial growth of Q. mongolica was significantly higher than that of P. amurense. With the increases of longitude (water availability), the correlation coefficients between radial growth of Q. mongolica and precipitation gradually weakened, while P. amurense didn't change. The physiological characteristics of those tree species was the key factors affecting their growth-climate relationship. With the significant warming since the 1976, the growth trend of P. amurense increased, whilst that of Q. mongolica decreased. Deteriorated drought stress caused by warming and difference in the species' ability to cope with water deficits might be the main reasons for different responses of two species, and for the divergence phenomenon occurring for Q. mongolica. If warming continues or worsens in the future, the growth of Q. mongolica may decline due to the intensified drought stress, while that of P. amurense may be less affected or be slightly enhanced.}, }
@article {pmid31418212, year = {2019}, author = {Shao, JY and DU, JH and Li, SF and Huang, YX and Liang, WN and Liao, JQ}, title = {[Tree seedling distribution, regeneration mechanism and response to climate change in alpine treeline ecotone].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {8}, pages = {2854-2864}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201908.007}, pmid = {31418212}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {Tree seedlings are one of the important components in alpine treeline ecotone, whose regeneration is crucial to treeline migration in response to climate change. We analyzed the spatial distribution, regeneration of tree seedlings and their responses to climate change in treeline ecotone in recent decades. The spatial distribution of tree seedlings in treeline ecotone is dominated by diffuse and clustered forms, with different indicative significance for spatial dynamics of treeline. At global scale, the altitude distribution limits of tree seedlings are usually related to the length and average temperature of growing season, along with the species characteristics. However, precipita-tion plays an important role at regional scale. The initial stage of seedling recruitment is restricted by seed source, which determines seed distribution and germination to a great extent. Microenvironment facilitates seedling regeneration by providing shelter for establishment and improving their survival rate. The regeneration process is more relevant to multiple biotic, abiotic factors and their interactions. With global warming, rising temperature in treeline ecotone and more precipitation are more suitable for seedling regeneration of treeline species. The expansion of seedlings to higher elevations could be considered as the portent of timberline upwards migration. Due to species-specific adaption strategy, however, some trees only increase seedling density and timberline location is constant. In the future, it is necessary to take precise dating techniques, such as tree-ring and 14C dating, and conduct long-term in-situ monitoring and indoor simulation experiments. To provide scientific basis for mountain ecosystem restoration and conservation, we should strengthen the studies on spatial patterns and regeneration mechanism of seedlings in treeline ecotone at multiple spatio-temporal scales, the adaptation strategies of tree seedlings in different types of treeline ecotone and treeline dynamics prediction.}, }
@article {pmid31417619, year = {2019}, author = {Tillotson, MD and Barnett, HK and Bhuthimethee, M and Koehler, ME and Quinn, TP}, title = {Artificial selection on reproductive timing in hatchery salmon drives a phenological shift and potential maladaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {1344-1359}, doi = {10.1111/eva.12730}, pmid = {31417619}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {The timing of breeding migration and reproduction links generations and substantially influences individual fitness. In salmonid fishes, such phenological events (seasonal return to freshwater and spawning) vary among populations but are consistent among years, indicating local adaptation in these traits to prevailing environmental conditions. Changing reproductive phenology has been observed in many populations of Atlantic and Pacific salmon and is sometimes attributed to adaptive responses to climate change. The sockeye salmon spawning in the Cedar River near Seattle, Washington, USA, have displayed dramatic changes in spawning timing over the past 50 years, trending later through the early 1990s, and becoming earlier since then. We explored the patterns and drivers of these changes using generalized linear models and mathematical simulations to identify possible environmental correlates of the changes, and test the alternative hypothesis that hatchery propagation caused inadvertent selection on timing. The trend toward later spawning prior to 1993 was partially explained by environmental changes, but the rapid advance in spawning since was not. Instead, since its initiation in 1991, the hatchery has, on average, selected for earlier spawning, and, depending on trait heritability, could have advanced spawning by 1-3 weeks over this period. We estimated heritability of spawning date to be high (h2~0.8; 95% CI: 0.5-1.1), so the upper end of this range is not improbable, though at lower heritabilities a smaller effect would be expected. The lower reproductive success of early spawners and relatively low survival of early emerging juveniles observed in recent years suggest that artificial and natural selection are acting in opposite directions. The fitness costs of early spawning may be exacerbated by future warming; thus, the artificially advanced phenology could reduce the population's productivity. Such artificial selection is known in many salmon hatcheries, so there are broad consequences for the productivity of wild populations comingled with hatchery-produced fish.}, }
@article {pmid31414393, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmed, A and Al-Amin, AQ and Rasiah, R}, title = {COP negotiations and Malaysian climate change roadmap: a comparative assessment using a dynamic environmental model.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-06141-7}, pmid = {31414393}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {This study critically evaluates two COP proposals on Malaysia that have been under consideration to reduce climate damage. A top-down disaggregation framework deploying an &quot;Empirical Regional Downscaling Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy&quot; is used to evaluate the local government climate roadmap and Malaysia's emissions reduction agendas under COP21 and subsequently COP22 proposals. The findings show that the costs from climate damage over the period 2010-2110 under the Malaysian Optimal Climate Action scenario will amount to MYR5,483 (US$1589) billion. The commensurate climate damage costs under the COP21 and COP22 scenario would be MYR5, 264 (US$1526) billion. Thus, the effective proposal for reducing climate damage in Malaysia over the period 2010-2110 is the COP22 time-adjusted COP21 proposal but there are a number of macroeconomic cost implications for savings and consumption that policy makers must address before acting.}, }
@article {pmid31414391, year = {2019}, author = {Anwar, MA and Zhou, R and Sajjad, A and Asmi, F}, title = {Climate change communication as political agenda and voters' behavior.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-06134-6}, pmid = {31414391}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {&quot;Climate change communication&quot; is taking the strategic position in the international and national politics around the globe. In the recent decade, different developing nations have started considering &quot;climate change communication&quot; as an integral part of the political campaigns and sustainable development. Specifically, the current document comprised of two sections. In the first section of the study, authors briefly compared the attributes related to &quot;climate change communication&quot; in the mainstream political parties' manifesto for the general election 2018 in Pakistan in a qualitative manner. In the second part, the difference of opinion among voters of mainstream political parties towards &quot;climate change&quot; was examined. In a bird's eye view, the perceived seriousness of &quot;climate change&quot; as a real challenge among voters mapped by the independent factors of &quot;urbanization,&quot; &quot;industrialization,&quot; &quot;transportation,&quot; and &quot;waste management&quot; for sustainable development through the primary quantitative survey of 732 voters in the country. The finding highlights (1) public understanding of &quot;socio-scientific issues,&quot; i.e., climate change is easy to communicate, and (2) how political parties are framing and communicating about &quot;climate change&quot; plays a significant role in climate change communication. The study concludes that &quot;climate change communication&quot; holds a critical role in developing regions' future political discourse to shape sustainable development policies.}, }
@article {pmid31413930, year = {2019}, author = {Cabezas-Cartes, F and Fernández, JB and Duran, F and Kubisch, EL}, title = {Potential benefits from global warming to the thermal biology and locomotor performance of an endangered Patagonian lizard.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7437}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.7437}, pmid = {31413930}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Global warming can significantly affect many aspects of the biology of animal species, including their thermal physiology and physiological performance. Thermal performance curves provide a heuristic model to evaluate the impacts of temperature on the ecophysiology of ectotherms. When integrated with other thermal biology parameters, they can be used to predict the impacts of climate change on individual fitness and population viability. In this study, we combine holistic measures of thermal physiology and the thermal sensitivity of locomotor performance with environmental temperatures measured at fine scale to estimate the vulnerability to global warming of the endangered Patagonian lizard Phymaturus tenebrosus. Our results indicate that this lizard exhibits its preferred temperatures and maximum locomotor performance at higher temperatures than the mean temperature it currently experiences in its habitat. In addition, it exhibits a low effectiveness of thermoregulation, being a poor thermoregulator. In view of the results obtained, we suggest that the climatic conditions of Patagonia may be advantageous for P. tenebrosus to survive future global warming, since its thermal physiology and locomotor performance may improve under increasing in environmental temperatures in its habitat.}, }
@article {pmid31413346, year = {2019}, author = {Borzée, A and Andersen, D and Groffen, J and Kim, HT and Bae, Y and Jang, Y}, title = {Climate change-based models predict range shifts in the distribution of the only Asian plethodontid salamander: Karsenia koreana.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {11838}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-48310-1}, pmid = {31413346}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Populations see their range fluctuate in relation to environmental variations, including climate change, and their survival is linked to the maintenance of large enough populations and broad enough distributions during these variations. Most amphibian populations are threatened by numerous ecological and anthropogenic variables acting in synergy with climate change. Accumulating basic ecological data such as range enables the development of population and range dynamics, themselves resulting on adequate conservation plans. Karsenia koreana is the only known Asian plethodontic salamander, occurring in a very restricted area only. Based on presence data, we created an ecological model using six bioclimatic factors with low multicollinearity to define the adequate habitat of the species, and we modelled the predicted suitability of the Korean landscape following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) predicting climate change scenarios based on CO2 concentrations in 2050 and 2070. The maximum entropy model for the current distribution produced a landscape suitability considerably wider than the current known distribution. The projected ranges for each RCP indicated marked increases, decreases and shifts in areas with suitable landscapes due to climate change. The lowest RCP prediction resulted in an increase in suitable area, although potentially without connectivity with current populations, while the highest RCP predictions resulted in a decrease. Our results highlight the potential negative impact of climate change, thus requiring updates in conservation plans for K. koreana. The methods used here can be replicated with any land-dwelling species, and our results reflect expected range shifts for most amphibians of the northern hemisphere.}, }
@article {pmid31412141, year = {2019}, author = {Korell, L and Auge, H and Chase, JM and Harpole, WS and Knight, TM}, title = {We need more realistic climate change experiments for understanding ecosystems of the future.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14797}, pmid = {31412141}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Experiments that alter local climate and measure community- and ecosystem-level responses are an important tool for understanding how future ecosystems will respond to climate change. Here, we synthesized data from 76 studies that manipulated climate and measured plant community responses, and find that most climate change experiments do not correspond to model-projected climate scenarios for their respective regions. This mismatch constrains our ability to predict responses of plant biodiversity and ecosystem functions to climate change, and we conclude with suggestions for a way forward. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31410702, year = {2019}, author = {Hao, X and Ma, H and Hua, D and Qin, J and Zhang, Y}, title = {Response of ecosystem water use efficiency to climate change in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {9}, pages = {561}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-019-7673-z}, pmid = {31410702}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {41571109//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Ecosystem water use efficiency (EWUE) is a popular issue in the comprehensive study of climate change, ecology, and hydrology. Currently, views on the response of EWUE to temperature, precipitation, and drought remain controversial. Based on ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) datasets, both of which were retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) using the Carnegie Ames Stanford approach (CASA) and surface energy balance algorithms for land (SEBAL) models, respectively, this study comprehensively examined the relationship between EWUE and temperature, precipitation, and drought in the Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia. The results showed that EWUE had an obvious temporal change trend in the Tianshan Mountains. The EWUEs of all vegetation types presented an increasing trend in spring and a decreasing trend in autumn. These results led to a phase shift in the annual cycle of EWUE over the years. Compared with 2000 to 2003, from 2012 to 2016, the annual EWUE cycle had advanced by 32 days. Precipitation generally had a negative effect on EWUE, while temperature had an obvious positive effect on EWUE. The EWUE responses to drought for the different vegetation types showed a variety of change trends. With the increase in drought stress, EWUE not only showed a simple upward or downward trend but also showed an upward trend followed by a downward trend or a downward trend followed by an upward trend. EWUE is more sensitive to changing environments than NPP or ET and is more suitable for analyzing ecosystem responses to global change.}, }
@article {pmid31409926, year = {2019}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Eat less meat: UN climate-change report calls for change to human diet.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {572}, number = {7769}, pages = {291-292}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02409-7}, pmid = {31409926}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31409789, year = {2019}, author = {Petersen, AM and Vincent, EM and Westerling, AL}, title = {Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {3502}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09959-4}, pmid = {31409789}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {We juxtapose 386 prominent contrarians with 386 expert scientists by tracking their digital footprints across ∼200,000 research publications and ∼100,000 English-language digital and print media articles on climate change. Projecting these individuals across the same backdrop facilitates quantifying disparities in media visibility and scientific authority, and identifying organization patterns within their association networks. Here we show via direct comparison that contrarians are featured in 49% more media articles than scientists. Yet when comparing visibility in mainstream media sources only, we observe just a 1% excess visibility, which objectively demonstrates the crowding out of professional mainstream sources by the proliferation of new media sources, many of which contribute to the production and consumption of climate change disinformation at scale. These results demonstrate why climate scientists should increasingly exert their authority in scientific and public discourse, and why professional journalists and editors should adjust the disproportionate attention given to contrarians.}, }
@article {pmid31407941, year = {2019}, author = {Vaught, J}, title = {Climate Change, Biodiversity, and Biopreservation.}, journal = {Biopreservation and biobanking}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {273}, doi = {10.1089/bio.2019.29057.jjv}, pmid = {31407941}, issn = {1947-5543}, }
@article {pmid31405979, year = {2019}, author = {Hong, C and Zhang, Q and Zhang, Y and Davis, SJ and Tong, D and Zheng, Y and Liu, Z and Guan, D and He, K and Schellnhuber, HJ}, title = {Impacts of climate change on future air quality and human health in China.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {35}, pages = {17193-17200}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1812881116}, pmid = {31405979}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {In recent years, air pollution has caused more than 1 million deaths per year in China, making it a major focus of public health efforts. However, future climate change may exacerbate such human health impacts by increasing the frequency and duration of weather conditions that enhance air pollution exposure. Here, we use a combination of climate, air quality, and epidemiological models to assess future air pollution deaths in a changing climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). We find that, assuming pollution emissions and population are held constant at current levels, climate change would adversely affect future air quality for >85% of China's population (∼55% of land area) by the middle of the century, and would increase by 3% and 4% the population-weighted average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone, respectively. As a result, we estimate an additional 12,100 and 8,900 Chinese (95% confidence interval: 10,300 to 13,800 and 2,300 to 14,700, respectively) will die per year from PM2.5 and ozone exposure, respectively. The important underlying climate mechanisms are changes in extreme conditions such as atmospheric stagnation and heat waves (contributing 39% and 6%, respectively, to the increase in mortality). Additionally, greater vulnerability of China's aging population will further increase the estimated deaths from PM2.5 and ozone in 2050 by factors of 1 and 3, respectively. Our results indicate that climate change and more intense extremes are likely to increase the risk of severe pollution events in China. Managing air quality in China in a changing climate will thus become more challenging.}, }
@article {pmid31402799, year = {2019}, author = {Harcourt, R and Bruine de Bruin, W and Dessai, S and Taylor, A}, title = {Investing in a good pair of wellies: how do non-experts interpret the expert terminology of climate change impacts and adaptation?.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {155}, number = {2}, pages = {257-272}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02455-0}, pmid = {31402799}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {The UK is already experiencing the impacts of climate change and these are expected to increase in scale and severity in the coming decades. Preparing for impacts by undertaking adaptive actions can potentially reduce the level of harm. In the UK, the government's adaptation program aims to develop a &quot;climate-ready society.&quot; However, achieving broad public engagement in adaptation presents a significant communications challenge. Here, we aimed to understand how UK residents use and interpret the terms &quot;climate change impacts&quot; and &quot;climate change adaptation.&quot; We conducted a secondary analysis of 22 interviews with UK residents, who were recruited for their diverse climate change views. The interviewees expressed a lack of clarity around expected climate change impacts, which did not prevent them from saying that they were already experiencing the effects of a changing climate. Further, threats to cultural norms and values were perceived as serious and emotionally charged. Adaptation was often conflated with mitigation, and responsibility for adaptation was contested. We discuss the implications of our findings for developing more useful public communication about climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31401801, year = {2019}, author = {Vanli, Ö and Ustundag, BB and Ahmad, I and Hernandez-Ochoa, IM and Hoogenboom, G}, title = {Using crop modeling to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wheat in southeastern turkey.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-06061-6}, pmid = {31401801}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The extreme temperatures and uneven distribution of rainfall associated with climate change are expected to affect agricultural productivity and food security. A study was conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on wheat in southeastern regions of Turkey. The CERES-wheat crop simulation model was calibrated and evaluated with data from eight surveyed farms. The four farms were used for calibration and four for evaluation. Climate change scenarios were developed for the middle (2036-2065) and late 21st century (2066-2095) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) for study sites in Islahiye and Nurdagi. Model calibration results showed a good agreement between observed and simulated yield with only a 1 to 11% range of error. The model evaluation results showed good fit between observed and simulated values of all parameters with % error ranged from 0.51 to 13.3%. Future climate change projections showed that maximum temperature (Tmax) will increase between 1.6 °C (RCP4.5) and 2.3 °C (RCP8.5), while minimum temperature (Tmin) will increase between 1.0 °C (RCP4.5) and 1.5 °C (RCP8.5) for mid-century. At the end of the century, Tmax is projected to increase from 2 °C (RCP4.5) to 4 °C (RCP8.5) and Tmin from 1.3 °C (RCP4.5) to 3.1 °C (RCP8.5). Climate change impacts results showed that future rise in temperature will reduce wheat yield by 16.3% in mid-century and 16.8% at the end of the century at Islahiye and for Nurdagi, while 13.0% in mid and 14.4% end of the century. The use of climate and crop modeling technique provides useful information in evaluating the climate change impacts and may assist stakeholders to make decisions to overcome the negative impacts in the near and long term.}, }
@article {pmid31401300, year = {2019}, author = {Damien, M and Tougeron, K}, title = {Prey-predator phenological mismatch under climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {60-68}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2019.07.002}, pmid = {31401300}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Insect phenology is affected by climate change and main responses are driven by phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary changes. Any modification in seasonal activity in one species can have consequences on interacting species, within and among trophic levels. In this overview, we focus on synchronisation mismatches that can occur between tightly interacting species such as hosts and parasitoids or preys and predators. Asynchronies happen because species from different trophic levels can have different response rates to climate change. We show that insect species alter their seasonal activities by modifying their life-cycle through change in voltinism or by altering their development rate. We expect strong bottom-up effects for phenology adjustments rather than top-down effects within food-webs. Extremely complex outcomes arise from such trophic mismatches, which make consequences at the community or ecosystem levels tricky to predict in a climate change context. We explore a set of potential consequences on population dynamics, conservation of species interactions, with a particular focus on the provision of ecosystem services by predators and parasitoids, such as biological pest control.}, }
@article {pmid31400190, year = {2019}, author = {Auffret, AG and Thomas, CD}, title = {Synergistic and antagonistic effects of land use and non-native species on community responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14765}, pmid = {31400190}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2015-1065//Swedish Research Council Formas/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change, land-use change and introductions of non-native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that plant community composition in 996 Swedish landscapes has consistently shifted to reflect the warmer and wetter climate that the region has experienced during the second half of the 20th century. Using community climatic indices, which reflect the average climatic associations of the species within each landscape at each time period, we found that species compositions in 74% of landscapes now have a higher representation of warm-associated species than they did previously, while 84% of landscapes now host more species associated with higher levels of precipitation. In addition to a warmer and wetter climate, there have also been large shifts in land use across the region, while the fraction of non-native species has increased in the majority of landscapes. Climatic warming at the landscape level appeared to favour the colonization of warm-associated species, while also potentially driving losses in cool-associated species. However, the resulting increases in community thermal means were apparently buffered by landscape simplification (reduction in habitat heterogeneity within landscapes) in the form of increased forest cover. Increases in non-native species, which generally originate from warmer climates than Sweden, were a strong driver of community-level warming. In terms of precipitation, both landscape simplification and increases in non-natives appeared to favour species associated with drier climatic conditions, to some extent counteracting the climate-driven shift towards wetter communities. Anthropogenic drivers can act both synergistically and antagonistically to determine trajectories of change in biological communities over time. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple drivers of global change when trying to understand, manage and predict biodiversity in the future.}, }
@article {pmid31398655, year = {2019}, author = {Ravindra, K and Rattan, P and Mor, S and Aggarwal, AN}, title = {Generalized additive models: Building evidence of air pollution, climate change and human health.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {132}, number = {}, pages = {104987}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.104987}, pmid = {31398655}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {Advances in statistical analysis in the last few decades in the area of linear models enhanced the capability of researchers to study environmental procedures. In relation to general linear models; generalized linear models (GLM) provide greater flexibility in analyzing data related to non-normal distributions. Considering this, the current review explains various applications of the generalized additive model (GAM) to link air pollution, climatic variability with adverse health outcomes. The review examines the application of GAM within the varied field, focusing on the environment and meteorological data. Further, advantages and complications of applying GAM to environmental data are also discussed. Application of GAM allowed for specification for the error pattern and found to be an appropriate fit for the data sets having non-normal distributions; this results in lower and more reliable p-values. Since most environmental data is non-normal, GAM provides a more effective analytical method than traditional linear models. This review highlights on ambient air pollutants, climate change, and health by evaluating studies related to GAM. Additionally, an insight into the application of GAM in R software is provided, which is open source software with the extensive application for any type of dataset.}, }
@article {pmid31396562, year = {2019}, author = {Weizman, E and Levy, O}, title = {The role of chromatin dynamics under global warming response in the symbiotic coral model Aiptasia.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {282}, doi = {10.1038/s42003-019-0543-y}, pmid = {31396562}, issn = {2399-3642}, abstract = {Extreme weather events frequency and scale are altered due to climate change. Symbiosis between corals and their endosymbiotic-dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium) is susceptible to these events and can lead to what is known as bleaching. However, there is evidence for coral adaptive plasticity in the role of epigenetic that have acclimated to high-temperature environments. We have implemented ATAC-seq and RNA-seq to study the cnidarian-dinoflagellate model Exaptasia pallida (Aiptasia) and expose the role of chromatin-dynamics in response to thermal-stress. We have identified 1309 genomic sites that change their accessibility in response to thermal changes. Moreover, apo-symbiotic Aiptasia accessible sites were enriched with NFAT, ATF4, GATA3, SOX14, and PAX3 motifs and expressed genes related to immunological pathways. Symbiotic Aiptasia accessible sites were enriched with NKx3-1, HNF4A, IRF4 motifs and expressed genes related to oxidative-stress pathways. Our work opens a new path towards understanding thermal-stress gene regulation in association with gene activity and chromatin-dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid31394018, year = {2019}, author = {Cornelissen, B and Neumann, P and Schweiger, O}, title = {Global warming promotes biological invasion of a honey bee pest.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14791}, pmid = {31394018}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change and biological invasions are two major global environmental challenges. Both may interact, e.g. via altered impact and distribution of invasive alien species. Even though invasive species play a key role for compromising the health of honey bees, the impact of climate change on the severity of such species is still unknown. The small hive beetle (SHB, Aethina tumida, Murray) is a parasite of honey bee colonies. It is endemic to Sub-Saharan Africa and has established populations on all continents except Antarctica. Since SHBs pupate in soil, pupation performance is governed foremost by two abiotic factors, soil temperature and moisture, which will be affected by climate change. Here, we investigated SHB invasion risk globally under current and future climate scenarios. We modelled survival and development time during pupation (= pupal performance) in response to soil temperature and soil moisture using published and novel experimental data. Presence data on SHB distribution were used for model validation. We then linked the model with global soil data in order to classify areas (resolution: 10 arcmin; i.e. 18.6 km at the equator) as unsuitable, marginal and suitable for SHB pupation performance. Under the current climate, the results show that many areas globally yet uninvaded are actually suitable, suggesting considerable SHB invasion risk. Future scenarios of global warming project a vehement increase in climatic suitability for SHB and corresponding potential for invasion, especially in the temperate regions of the Northern hemisphere, thereby creating demand for enhanced and adapted mitigation and management. Our analysis shows, for the first time, effects of global warming on a honey bee pest and will help areas at risk to prepare adequately. In conclusion, this is a clear case for global warming promoting biological invasion of a pest species with severe potential to harm important pollinator species globally. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31392617, year = {2019}, author = {Shalby, A and Elshemy, M and Zeidan, BA}, title = {Assessment of climate change impacts on water quality parameters of Lake Burullus, Egypt.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-06105-x}, pmid = {31392617}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Egyptian Mediterranean coast hosts five shallow lagoons which play a vital role in the national economy. Lake Burullus is the second largest one that is located in the Nile Delta and is connected to the Mediterranean by a narrow outlet. This lagoon faces various anthropogenic-induced implications that threat its ecosystem and biodiversity. The prime objective of this study is investigating the impacts of future climate change (CC) on its characteristics. A 2-D hydro-ecological modeling for the lagoon was implemented, using MIKE21FM. The proposed model was calibrated and validated against the collected water quality records, for two successive years (2011-2013), at twelve monitoring stations throughout the lagoon. The simulations were executed for various parameters, including water depth, salinity, DO, BOD, and nutrient components. Six simulations from different regional climate models (RCMs) were obtained and examined to extract the most accurate climatic projections for the lagoon coordinates. These climatic estimates cover three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios according to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). A moderate sea level rise (SLR), locally projected offshore from the Nile Delta coast, was obtained. The validated model was forced with the climatic and SLR projections of 2 years representing the mid and long-term future of the twenty-first century. The model results showed that the developed model is an efficient tool to simulate the lagoon characteristics. The results of the modified model showed that CC has the potential to radically alter the physical and chemical structure of Lake Burullus. The results emphasized that the lagoon is expected to be warmer and more saline. The risk of oxygen depletion is firmly predictable with significant spatial differences of DO decreasing. A prolonged residence time is expected, accompanied by an increasing trend of phosphate and chlorophyll-a and a decreasing trend of nitrate. CC impacts on Lake Burullus should be considered in its urgently required management plan.}, }
@article {pmid31392429, year = {2019}, author = {Ullah, W and Nafees, M and Khurshid, M and Nihei, T}, title = {Assessing farmers' perspectives on climate change for effective farm-level adaptation measures in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {9}, pages = {547}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-019-7651-5}, pmid = {31392429}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {Agriculture is considered as the backbone of the economy of Pakistan. However, current changes in climate have been adversely affecting agricultural productivity. In this paper, perceived impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation towards it have been studied in Charsadda district (lowlands) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan through extensive field surveys, involving 116 farm households. Results have revealed that climate change factors including fluctuating temperature, evidence of yearly long droughts, and a steady shift in rainfall patterns have pressured the agriculture sector and livelihoods of the local peasants. The staggering floods of 2010 and 2011 in Pakistan have evidenced severe climatic changes in Pakistan. These countrywide floods have washed fertile soil in the study area that has directly contributed to losses in agricultural yield and increased vector-borne diseases in crops. The local farmers have commonly deployed adaptive measure such as crops diversification, changing fertilizer, and planting shaded trees to minimize the impacts of changes in climate. However, these adjustments measures are perceived as not appropriate for improving farm yield. Therefore, the study suggests that improved understanding of the climate change impacts and knowledge on adapting adequately will lead to no-regret adaptation. It will also help protecting farmer's lives and livelihoods and will boost their resilience towards changing climatic conditions. Graphical abstract .}, }
@article {pmid31391875, year = {2019}, author = {Volenzo, TE and Odiyo, JO}, title = {Linking risk communication and sustainable climate change action: A conceptual framework.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {703}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.703}, pmid = {31391875}, issn = {1996-1421}, }
@article {pmid31391584, year = {2019}, author = {Schartup, AT and Thackray, CP and Qureshi, A and Dassuncao, C and Gillespie, K and Hanke, A and Sunderland, EM}, title = {Climate change and overfishing increase neurotoxicant in marine predators.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {572}, number = {7771}, pages = {648-650}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1468-9}, pmid = {31391584}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {More than three billion people rely on seafood for nutrition. However, fish are the predominant source of human exposure to methylmercury (MeHg), a potent neurotoxic substance. In the United States, 82% of population-wide exposure to MeHg is from the consumption of marine seafood and almost 40% is from fresh and canned tuna alone1. Around 80% of the inorganic mercury (Hg) that is emitted to the atmosphere from natural and human sources is deposited in the ocean2, where some is converted by microorganisms to MeHg. In predatory fish, environmental MeHg concentrations are amplified by a million times or more. Human exposure to MeHg has been associated with long-term neurocognitive deficits in children that persist into adulthood, with global costs to society that exceed US$20 billion3. The first global treaty on reductions in anthropogenic Hg emissions (the Minamata Convention on Mercury) entered into force in 2017. However, effects of ongoing changes in marine ecosystems on bioaccumulation of MeHg in marine predators that are frequently consumed by humans (for example, tuna, cod and swordfish) have not been considered when setting global policy targets. Here we use more than 30 years of data and ecosystem modelling to show that MeHg concentrations in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) increased by up to 23% between the 1970s and 2000s as a result of dietary shifts initiated by overfishing. Our model also predicts an estimated 56% increase in tissue MeHg concentrations in Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) due to increases in seawater temperature between a low point in 1969 and recent peak levels-which is consistent with 2017 observations. This estimated increase in tissue MeHg exceeds the modelled 22% reduction that was achieved in the late 1990s and 2000s as a result of decreased seawater MeHg concentrations. The recently reported plateau in global anthropogenic Hg emissions4 suggests that ocean warming and fisheries management programmes will be major drivers of future MeHg concentrations in marine predators.}, }
@article {pmid31390751, year = {2019}, author = {Khan, MD and Thi Vu, HH and Lai, QT and Ahn, JW}, title = {Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {15}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16152799}, pmid = {31390751}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {2017M3D8A2084752//The National Strategic Project-Carbon Mineralization Flagship Center of the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT(MSIT), the Ministry of Environment (ME) and the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE/ ; }, abstract = {For decades, researchers have debated whether climate change has an adverse impact on diseases, especially infectious diseases. They have identified a strong relationship between climate variables and vector's growth, mortality rate, reproduction, and spatiotemporal distribution. Epidemiological data further indicates the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases post every single extreme weather event. Based on studies conducted mostly between 1990-2018, three aspects that resemble the impact of climate change impact on diseases are: (a) emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases, (b) impact of extreme weather events, and (c) social upliftment with education and adaptation. This review mainly examines and discusses the impact of climate change based on scientific evidences in published literature. Humans are highly vulnerable to diseases and other post-catastrophic effects of extreme events, as evidenced in literature. It is high time that human beings understand the adverse impacts of climate change and take proper and sustainable control measures. There is also the important requirement for allocation of effective technologies, maintenance of healthy lifestyles, and public education.}, }
@article {pmid31390708, year = {2019}, author = {Clerici, N and Cote-Navarro, F and Escobedo, FJ and Rubiano, K and Villegas, JC}, title = {Spatio-temporal and cumulative effects of land use-land cover and climate change on two ecosystem services in the Colombian Andes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {685}, number = {}, pages = {1181-1192}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.275}, pmid = {31390708}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change can have marked effects on ecosystem service (ES) provision in the Andes, particularly in peri-urban areas. In addition to global-change related processes, cumulative effects such as changing socio-political dynamics, environmental policies, and conflicts are also changing type and magnitude of land use-land cover (LULC) dynamics in the Colombian Andes. Studies in the region have investigated the effects of LULC change, deforestation and extreme climatic events on the hydrology of watersheds and carbon sequestration. Yet, less is known on how the cumulative effects of climate and LULC changes will drive water yield and carbon sequestration. To investigate these cumulative effects, we study two different watersheds near Bogota, Colombia and their ES for the period 2016-2046. We use IPCC-LULC scenarios, expert elicitation, hydro-meteorological data, and integrated modelling using temporal LULC change and ESs valuation models to parse out effects of LULC versus climate change on two representative ESs. Our results show forest and shrublands remain stable during the analysis period. However, urban conversion of agricultural pastures is substantial. We found that climate change scenarios had greater effect on water yield and supply than LULC scenarios in both watersheds. However, carbon sequestration was greater in rural forest and shrubland areas farther from Bogota. In contrast to current land use zoning being promoted by local elected officials, our findings indicate that land-use development and policies in near-urban basins need to minimize urbanization in agriculture and pasture LULCs, as these can have substantial effects on water yield. Similarly, land use polices in ex-urban areas need to conserve forested and shrubland areas to maximize their carbon offset potential. Collectively, our results highlight the need to incorporate climate change conditions in decision making and land use planning processes, in order to maintain the capacity of ecosystems, both urban and rural, to provide services to society.}, }
@article {pmid31388476, year = {2019}, author = {Stein, RA and Sheldon, ND and Smith, S}, title = {Rapid response to anthropogenic climate change by Thuja occidentalis: implications for past climate reconstructions and future climate predictions.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7378}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.7378}, pmid = {31388476}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Carbon isotope values of leaves (δ13Cleaf) from meta-analyses and growth chamber studies of C3 plants have been used to propose generalized relationships between δ13Cleaf and climate variables such as mean annual precipitation (MAP), atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide ([CO2]), and other climate variables. These generalized relationships are frequently applied to the fossil record to create paleoclimate reconstructions. Although plant evolution influences biochemistry and response to environmental stress, few studies have assessed species-specific carbon assimilation as it relates to climate outside of a laboratory. We measured δ13Cleaf values and C:N ratios of a wide-ranging evergreen conifer with a long fossil record, Thuja occidentalis (Cupressaceae) collected 1804-2017, in order to maximize potential paleo-applications of our focal species. This high-resolution record represents a natural experiment from pre-Industrial to Industrial times, which spans a range of geologically meaningful [CO2] and δ13Catm values. Δleaf values (carbon isotope discrimination between δ13Catm and δ13Cleaf) remain constant across climate conditions, indicating limited response to environmental stress. Only δ13Cleaf and δ13Catm values showed a strong relationship (linear), thus, δ13Cleaf is an excellent record of carbon isotopic changes in the atmosphere during Industrialization. In contrast with previous free-air concentration enrichment experiments, no relationship was found between C:N ratios and increasing [CO2]. Simultaneously static C:N ratios and Δleaf in light of increasing CO2 highlights plants' inability to match rapid climate change with increased carbon assimilation as previously expected; Δleaf values are not reliable tools to reconstruct MAP and [CO2], and δ13Cleaf values only decrease with [CO2] in line with atmospheric carbon isotope changes.}, }
@article {pmid31388223, year = {2019}, author = {Cariappa, MP}, title = {Climate change vis-a-vis climate and change: the military public health paradigm.}, journal = {Medical journal, Armed Forces India}, volume = {75}, number = {3}, pages = {237-239}, doi = {10.1016/j.mjafi.2019.07.003}, pmid = {31388223}, issn = {0377-1237}, }
@article {pmid31388089, year = {2019}, author = {Hofer, U}, title = {Candida auris' potential link to climate change.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41579-019-0254-x}, pmid = {31388089}, issn = {1740-1534}, }
@article {pmid31388050, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmad, R and Khuroo, AA and Charles, B and Hamid, M and Rashid, I and Aravind, NA}, title = {Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {11395}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-47859-1}, pmid = {31388050}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {In an era of climate change, biological invasions by alien species represent one of the main anthropogenic drivers of global environmental change. The present study, using an ensemble modelling approach, has mapped current and future global distribution of the invasive Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) and predicted the invasion hotspots under climate change. The current potential distribution of Ox-eye Daisy coincides well with the actual distribution records, thereby indicating robustness of our model. The model predicted a global increase in the suitable habitat for the potential invasion of this species under climate change. Oceania was shown to be the high-risk region to the potential invasion of this species under both current and future climate change scenarios. The results revealed niche conservatism for Australia and Northern America, but contrastingly a niche shift for Africa, Asia, Oceania and Southern America. The global distribution modelling and risk assessment of Ox-eye Daisy has immediate implications in mitigating its invasion impacts under climate change, as well as predicting the global invasion hotspots and developing region-specific invasion management strategies. Interestingly, the contrasting patterns of niche dynamics shown by this invasive plant species provide novel insights towards disentangling the different operative mechanisms underlying the process of biological invasions at the global scale.}, }
@article {pmid31388033, year = {2019}, author = {Islam, SU and Hay, RW and Déry, SJ and Booth, BP}, title = {Modelling the impacts of climate change on riverine thermal regimes in western Canada's largest Pacific watershed.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {11398}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-47804-2}, pmid = {31388033}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Quantification of climate change impacts on the thermal regimes of rivers in British Columbia (BC) is crucial given their importance to aquatic ecosystems. Using the Air2Stream model, we investigate the impact of both air temperature and streamflow changes on river water temperatures from 1950 to 2015 across BC's 234,000 km2 Fraser River Basin (FRB). Model results show the FRB's summer water temperatures rose by nearly 1.0 °C during 1950-2015 with 0.47 °C spread across 17 river sites. For most of these sites, such increases in average summer water temperature have doubled the number of days exceeding 20 °C, the water temperature that, if exceeded, potentially increases the physiological stress of salmon during migration. Furthermore, river sites, especially those in the upper and middle FRB, show significant associations between Pacific Ocean teleconnections and regional water temperatures. A multivariate linear regression analysis reveals that air temperature primarily controls simulated water temperatures in the FRB by capturing ~80% of its explained variance with secondary impacts through river discharge. Given such increases in river water temperature, salmon returning to spawn in the Fraser River and its tributaries are facing continued and increasing physical challenges now and potentially into the future.}, }
@article {pmid31387149, year = {2019}, author = {Sainsbury, P and Charlesworth, K and Madden, L and Capon, A and Stewart, G and Pencheon, D}, title = {Climate change is a health issue: what can doctors do?.}, journal = {Internal medicine journal}, volume = {49}, number = {8}, pages = {1044-1048}, doi = {10.1111/imj.14380}, pmid = {31387149}, issn = {1445-5994}, support = {//University of Sydney's Planetary Health Platform/ ; }, abstract = {The visit to Australia by Dr David Pencheon, Founding Director of the National Health Service (NHS) Sustainable Development Unit, in April-May 2018 generated considerable interest and engagement. Dr Pencheon's overarching messages were that climate change is a health issue and that doctors and health systems have an opportunity, and responsibility, to lead climate action. This article distils Dr Pencheon's presentations into three themes: (i) carbon accounting; (ii) transformational change in our systems of healthcare; and (iii) a health system fit for the future. For each theme, we highlight promising initiatives that are already underway in Australia that are starting to transform our health system into one fit for a future environmentally sustainable world. We suggest practical ways in which doctors can lead the transformation through personal action and influence broader systems.}, }
@article {pmid31386954, year = {2019}, author = {Wu, J and Huang, C and Pang, M and Wang, Z and Yang, L and FitzGerald, G and Zhong, S}, title = {Planned sheltering as an adaptation strategy to climate change: Lessons learned from the severe flooding in Anhui Province of China in 2016.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {694}, number = {}, pages = {133586}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133586}, pmid = {31386954}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Evacuation and sheltering is both a disaster response measure and a strategy to adapt to climate change, and consequently address the Sustainable Development Goals. Research has found that displacement does cause negative health impacts to evacuees, but few studies have observed how planned sheltering might reduce adverse health impacts. This article identifies the good practice and lessons learned from China's response to severe flooding in Anhui province in 2016.<br><br>METHODS: First, we identified the key phases for disaster sheltering by analyzing related government reports. We then interviewed 21 relevant professionals in order to identify good practice and lessons learned which could lead to better health outcomes (e.g., reduce fatalities, infectious diseases, and mental health problems). Interviewees were selected through a purposive sampling strategy, which identified emergency management professionals and those who had been assigned evacuation, sheltering, or medical tasks. Finally, thematic analysis and the constant comparative method were used to code, identify, and describe the good practice and challenges during key phases.<br><br>RESULTS: Good practice included: using early warning systems to advise communities of risks and enforce evacuation in the flood zone; preparing and using schools as shelters with open-ended periods of operation; and, providing stable shelter accommodations which offered medical and public health services, clean drinking water and food, sanitation, and toilet hygiene through multiagency cooperation. Challenges included: providing mental health services, evaluating intervention effectiveness, managing volunteers, monitoring long-term health effects, and providing economic support.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The unintended negative effects caused by sheltering during extreme weather can be reduced. This requires close cooperation among government entities to establish planned mass shelters with appropriate levels of personal, environmental and healthcare support and to ensure long-term physical and mental health support. Additionally, if disaster mitigation strategies are integrated with climate adaptation plans, we can design more health-oriented and sustainable cities.}, }
@article {pmid31386221, year = {2019}, author = {Lapola, DM and da Silva, JMC and Braga, DR and Carpigiani, L and Ogawa, F and Torres, RR and Barbosa, LCF and Ometto, JPHB and Joly, CA}, title = {A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.13405}, pmid = {31386221}, issn = {1523-1739}, abstract = {Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional populations. Here we present a vulnerability analysis of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation integrity inside and around PAs and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). The combination of hazard level and resilience status allows the proposition of broad adaptation pathways to cope with climate change in these PAs. We found 17 PAs (covering 20,611 km2) rated as highly vulnerable, located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Other 258 PAs, covering 756,569 km2 , located primarily in Amazonia are categorized as having a moderate/medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drives vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. More than 80% of these PAs under a high or moderate vulnerability are PAs managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people who inhabit these PAs may be threatened in the future. In at least 870 PAs, the majority of them located in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate change hazard and/or high resilience status. A smaller number of at least 20 PAs, located in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for deeper interventions, such as improvement of ecological connectivity, given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to interconnect vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that part of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future. Article impact statement: A minority of Brazilian protected areas are highly vulnerable to climate change and demand strong adaptation-oriented management. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid31380091, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, ZM and Meng, SY and Rao, GY}, title = {Quaternary climate change and habitat preference shaped the genetic differentiation and phylogeography of Rhodiola sect. Prainia in the southern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {14}, pages = {8305-8319}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5406}, pmid = {31380091}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {There are two long-standing biogeographic hypotheses regarding the glacial survival of plant species in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP): the in situ survival hypothesis and the tabula rasa hypothesis. We tested these two hypotheses in a phylogeographic study of Rhodiola sect. Prainia, a monophyletic section with ecologically divergent lineages. Molecular data from the nuclear internal transcribed spacer, six plastid markers and 13 nuclear microsatellite loci were analyzed for 240 individuals from 19 populations of this section. Environmental data were used to analyze the niches of major phylogenetic lineages within this section and to model changes in their distributions since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We found that Rhodiola sect. Prainia consists of three evolutionary lineages: all populations of R. stapfii, R. prainii populations at the southern edge of the QTP, and R. prainii populations in the interior part of the QTP. During the LGM, the survival of R. prainii in the interior part of the QTP corresponded with the in situ survival hypothesis, while R. stapfii most probably survived the LGM in a manner corresponding with the tabula rasa hypothesis. The evolutionary history of different lineages of this section was shaped by topography, climate change, and lineage-specific habitat preferences.}, }
@article {pmid31380063, year = {2019}, author = {Reusch, C and Gampe, J and Scheuerlein, A and Meier, F and Grosche, L and Kerth, G}, title = {Differences in seasonal survival suggest species-specific reactions to climate change in two sympatric bat species.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {14}, pages = {7957-7965}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5292}, pmid = {31380063}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Long-lived animals with a low annual reproductive output need a long time to recover from population crashes and are, thus, likely to face high extinction risk, if the current global environmental change will increase mortality rates. To aid conservation of those species, knowledge on the variability of mortality rates is essential. Unfortunately, however, individual-based multiyear data sets that are required for that have only rarely been collected for free-ranging long-lived mammals. Here, we used a five-year data set comprising activity data of 1,445 RFID-tagged individuals of two long-lived temperate zone bat species, Natterer's bats (Myotis nattereri) and Daubenton's bats (Myotis daubentonii), at their joint hibernaculum. Both species are listed as being of high conservation interest by the European Habitats Directive. Applying mixed-effects logistic regression, we explored seasonal survival differences in these two species which differ in foraging strategy and phenology. In both species, survival over the first winter of an individual's life was much lower than survival over subsequent winters. Focussing on adults only, seasonal survival patterns were largely consistent with higher winter and lower summer survival but varied in its level across years in both species. Our analyses, furthermore, highlight the importance of species-specific time periods for survival. Daubenton's bats showed a much stronger difference in survival between the two seasons than Natterer's bats. In one exceptional winter, the population of Natterer's bats crashed, while the survival of Daubenton's bats declined only moderately. While our results confirm the general seasonal survival pattern typical for hibernating mammals with higher winter than summer survival, they also show that this pattern can be reversed under particular conditions. Overall, our study points toward a high importance of specific time periods for population dynamics and suggests species-, population-, and age class-specific responses to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31380042, year = {2019}, author = {Souza, AF and Longhi, SJ}, title = {Disturbance history mediates climate change effects on subtropical forest biomass and dynamics.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {7184-7199}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5289}, pmid = {31380042}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The responses of forest communities to interacting anthropogenic disturbances like climate change and logging are poorly known. Subtropical forests have been heavily modified by humans and their response to climate change is poorly understood. We investigated the 9-year change observed in a mixed conifer-hardwood Atlantic forest mosaic that included both mature and selectively logged forest patches in subtropical South America. We used demographic monitoring data within 10 1 ha plots that were subjected to distinct management histories (plots logged until 1955, until 1987, and unlogged) to test the hypothesis that climate change affected forest structure and dynamics differentially depending on past disturbances. We determined the functional group of all species based on life-history affinities as well as many functional traits like leaf size, specific leaf area, wood density, total height, stem slenderness, and seed size data for the 66 most abundant species. Analysis of climate data revealed that minimum temperatures and rainfall have been increasing in the last few decades of the 20th century. Floristic composition differed mainly with logging history categories, with only minor change over the nine annual census intervals. Aboveground biomass increased in all plots, but increases were higher in mature unlogged forests, which showed signs of forest growth associated with increased CO2, temperature, and rainfall/treefall gap disturbance at the same time. Logged forests showed arrested succession as indicated by reduced abundances of Pioneers and biomass-accumulators like Large Seeded Pioneers and Araucaria, as well as reduced functional diversity. Management actions aimed at creating regeneration opportunities for long-lived pioneers are needed to restore community functional diversity, and ecosystem services such as increased aboveground biomass accumulation. We conclude that the effects of climate drivers on the dynamics of Brazilian mixed Atlantic forests vary with land-use legacies, and can differ importantly from the ones prevalent in better known tropical forests.}, }
@article {pmid31380019, year = {2019}, author = {Bogawski, P and Damen, T and Nowak, MM and Pędziwiatr, K and Wilkin, P and Mwachala, G and Pierzchalska, J and Wiland-Szymańska, J}, title = {Current and future potential distributions of three Dracaena Vand. ex L. species under two contrasting climate change scenarios in Africa.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {6833-6848}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5251}, pmid = {31380019}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Forest undergrowth plants are tightly connected with the shady and humid conditions that occur under the canopy of tropical forests. However, projected climatic changes, such as decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, negatively affect understory environments by promoting light-demanding and drought-tolerant species. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the influence of climate change on the spatial distribution of three selected forest undergrowth plants, Dracaena Vand. ex L. species, D. afromontana Mildbr., D. camerooniana Baker, and D. surculosa Lindl., simultaneously creating the most comprehensive location database for these species to date. A total of 1,223 herbarium records originating from tropical Africa and derived from 93 herbarium collections worldwide have been gathered, validated, and entered into a database. Species-specific Maxent species distribution models (SDMs) based on 11 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were developed for the species. HadGEM2-ES projections of bioclimatic variables in two contrasting representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, were used to quantify the changes in future potential species distribution. D. afromontana is mostly sensitive to temperature in the wettest month, and its potential geographical range is predicted to decrease (up to -63.7% at RCP8.5). Optimum conditions for D. camerooniana are low diurnal temperature range (6-8°C) and precipitation in the wettest season exceeding 750 mm. The extent of this species will also decrease, but not as drastically as that of D. afromontana. D. surculosa prefers high precipitation in the coldest months. Its potential habitat area is predicted to increase in the future and to expand toward the east. This study developed SDMs and estimated current and future (year 2050) potential distributions of the forest undergrowth Dracaena species. D. afromontana, naturally associated with mountainous plant communities, was the most sensitive to predicted climate warming. In contrast, D. surculosa was predicted to extend its geographical range, regardless of the climate change scenario.}, }
@article {pmid31380015, year = {2019}, author = {Mo, Y and Kearney, MS and Turner, RE}, title = {Feedback of coastal marshes to climate change: Long-term phenological shifts.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {6785-6797}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5215}, pmid = {31380015}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Coastal marshes are important carbon sinks facing serious threats from climatic stressors. Current research reveals that the growth of individual marsh plants is susceptible to a changing climate, but the responses of different marsh systems at a landscape scale are less clear. Here, we document the multi-decadal changes in the phenology and the area of the extensive coastal marshes in Louisiana, USA, a representative of coastal ecosystems around the world that currently experiencing sea-level rise, temperature warming, and atmospheric CO 2 increase. The phenological records are constructed using the longest continuous satellite-based record of the Earth's ecosystems, the Landsat data, and an advanced modeling technique, the nonlinear mixed model. We find that the length of the growing seasons of the intermediate and brackish marshes increased concomitantly with the atmospheric CO 2 concentration over the last 30 years, and predict that such changes will continue and accelerate in the future. These phenological changes suggest a potential increase in CO 2 uptake and thus a negative feedback mechanism to climate change. The areas of the freshwater and intermediate marshes were stable over the period studied, but the areas of the brackish and saline marshes decreased substantially, suggesting ecosystem instability and carbon storage loss under the anticipated sea-level rise. The marshes' phenological shifts portend their potentially critical role in climate mitigation, and the different responses among systems shed light on the underlying mechanisms of such changes.}, }
@article {pmid31379643, year = {2019}, author = {Luo, Y and Zhao, J}, title = {Motivated Attention in Climate Change Perception and Action.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1541}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2019.01541}, pmid = {31379643}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Despite the scientific consensus, some people still remain skeptical about climate change. In fact, there is a growing partisan divide over the last decade within the United States in the support for climate policies. Given the same climate evidence, why do some people become concerned while others remain unconvinced? Here we propose a motivated attention framework where socio-political motivations shape visual attention to climate evidence, altering perceptions of the evidence and subsequent actions to mitigate climate change. To seek support for this framework, we conducted three experiments. Participants viewed a graph of annual global temperature change while they were eyetracked and estimated the average change. We found that political orientation may bias attention to climate change evidence, altering the perception of the same evidence (Experiment 1). We further examined how attentional biases influence subsequent actions to mitigate climate change. We found that liberals were more likely to sign a climate petition or more willing to donate to an environmental organization than conservatives, and attention guides climate actions in different ways for liberals and conservatives (Experiment 2). To seek causal evidence, we biased attention to different parts of the temperature curve by coloring stronger climate evidence in red or weak climate evidence in red. We found that liberals were more likely to sign the petition or more willing to donate when stronger evidence was in red, but conservatives were less likely to act when stronger evidence was in red (Experiment 3). This suggests that drawing attention to motivationally consistent information increases actions in liberals, but discouraged conservatives. The findings provide initial preliminary evidence for the motivated attention framework, suggesting an attentional divide between liberals and conservatives in the perception of climate evidence. This divide might further reinforce prior beliefs about climate change, creating further polarization. The current study raises a possible attentional mechanism for ideologically motivated reasoning and its impact on basic perceptual processes. It also provides implications for the communication of climate science to different socio-political groups with the goal of mobilizing actions on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31379389, year = {2019}, author = {Honda, A and Murakami, S and Harada, M and Tsuchiya, K and Kinoshita, G and Suzuki, H}, title = {Late Pleistocene climate change and population dynamics of Japanese Myodes voles inferred from mitochondrial cytochrome b sequences.}, journal = {Journal of mammalogy}, volume = {100}, number = {4}, pages = {1156-1168}, doi = {10.1093/jmammal/gyz093}, pmid = {31379389}, issn = {0022-2372}, abstract = {The Japanese archipelago is comprised of four main islands-Hokkaido, Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu-which contain high mountainous areas that likely allowed for lineage differentiation and population genetic structuring during the climatic changes of the late Pleistocene. Here, we assess the historical background of the evolutionary dynamics of herbivorous red-backed voles (Myodes) in Japan, examining the evolutionary trends of mitochondrial cytochrome b gene (Cytb) sequence variation. Four apparent signals from rapid expansion events were detected in three species, M. rufocanus and M. rutilus from Hokkaido and M. smithii from central Honshu. Taken together with results from previous studies on Japanese wood mice (Apodemus spp.), three of the expansion events were considered to be associated with predicted bottleneck events at the marine isotope stage (MIS) 4 period, in which glaciers are thought to have expanded extensively, especially at higher elevations. In the late Pleistocene, the possible candidates are transitions MIS 6/5, MIS 4/3, and MIS 2/1, which can be characterized by the cold periods of the penultimate glacial maximum, MIS 4, and the last glacial maximum, respectively. Our data further reveal the genetic footprints of repeated range expansion and contraction in the northern and southern lineages of the vole species currently found in central Honshu, namely M. andersoni and M. smithii, in response to climatic oscillation during the late Pleistocene. The time-dependent evolutionary rates of the mitochondrial Cytb presented here would provide a possible way for assessing population dynamics of cricetid rodents responding to the late Pleistocene environmental fluctuation.}, }
@article {pmid31378391, year = {2019}, author = {Nugent, R and Fottrell, E}, title = {Non-communicable diseases and climate change: linked global emergencies.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {394}, number = {10199}, pages = {622-623}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31762-3}, pmid = {31378391}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid31377351, year = {2019}, author = {Bartosiewicz, M and Przytulska, A and Deshpande, BN and Antoniades, D and Cortes, A and MacIntyre, S and Lehmann, MF and Laurion, I}, title = {Effects of climate change and episodic heat events on cyanobacteria in a eutrophic polymictic lake.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {693}, number = {}, pages = {133414}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.220}, pmid = {31377351}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Mixing regime and CO2 availability may control cyanobacterial blooms in polymictic lakes, but the underlying mechanisms still remain unclear. We integrated detailed results from a natural experiment comprising an average-wet year (2011) and one with heat waves (2012), a long-term meteorological dataset (1960-2010), historical phosphorus concentrations and sedimentary pigment records, to determine the mechanistic controls of cyanobacterial blooms in a eutrophic polymictic lake. Intense warming in 2012 was associated with: 1) increased stability of the water column with buoyancy frequencies exceeding 40 cph at the surface, 2) high phytoplankton biomass in spring (up to 125 mg WW L-1), 3) reduced downward transport of heat and 4) depleted epilimnetic CO2 concentrations. CO2 depletion was maintained by intense uptake by phytoplankton (influx up to 30 mmol m-2 d-1) in combination with reduced, internal and external, carbon inputs during dry, stratified periods. These synergistic effects triggered bloom of buoyant cyanobacteria (up to 300 mg WW L-1) in the hot year. Complementary evidence from polynomial regression modelling using historical data and pigment record revealed that warming explains 78% of the observed trends in cyanobacterial biomass, whereas historical phosphorus concentration only 10% thereof. Together the results from the natural experiment and the long-term record indicate that effects of hotter and drier climate are likely to increase water column stratification and decrease CO2 availability in eutrophic polymictic lakes. This combination will catalyze blooms of buoyant cyanobacteria.}, }
@article {pmid31377026, year = {2019}, author = {Spinoit, AF}, title = {Hypospadias increased prevalence in Surveillance Systems for Birth Defects is observed: Next to climate change are we going towards a human fertility alteration?.}, journal = {European urology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.eururo.2019.07.035}, pmid = {31377026}, issn = {1873-7560}, }
@article {pmid31374116, year = {2019}, author = {Middendorf, BJ and Prasad, PVV and Pierzynski, GM}, title = {Setting Research Priorities for Tackling Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erz360}, pmid = {31374116}, issn = {1460-2431}, abstract = {Addressing the complex issues related to climate change requires multiple innovative approaches to identify research priorities involving multi-disciplinary research teams. Participatory approaches involving a variety of perspectives were used to gain insights into critical issues such as defining and understanding sustainable intensification, climate smart agriculture, and soil fertility prioritization in sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis drew on the foundation principles of participatory research and fundamental facilitation skills, while grounded in scientific knowledge and understanding of these complex issues. This approach essentially incorporates the relevant principles of participatory learning and action, primarily designed for development projects, with a new set of actors within the research and policy domain. The results of three case studies that utilized participatory techniques with a set of multi-disciplinary research teams are presented. The case studies include: 1) Feed the Future Sustainable Intensification Innovation Lab (SIIL) proposal development grounded in country-led and national priorities in Bangladesh, Tanzania, and Cambodia; 2) Climate Smart Agriculture and Sustainable Intensification (SI) Assessment and Priority Setting in Rwanda; and 3) Soil Fertility Prioritization in Sub Saharan Africa. We discuss how the future directions of such initiatives were shaped for improved outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid31373473, year = {2019}, author = {Sakamoto, R and Tanimoto, T and Takahashi, K and Hamaki, T and Kusumi, E and Crump, A}, title = {Flourishing Japanese Encephalitis, Associated with Global Warming and Urbanisation in Asia, Demands Widespread Integrated Vaccination Programmes.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {85}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.5334/aogh.2580}, pmid = {31373473}, issn = {2214-9996}, }
@article {pmid31372845, year = {2019}, author = {Lewandowsky, S and Cook, J and Fay, N and Gignac, GE}, title = {Correction to: Science by social media: Attitudes towards climate change are mediated by perceived social consensus.}, journal = {Memory &amp; cognition}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3758/s13421-019-00965-x}, pmid = {31372845}, issn = {1532-5946}, abstract = {Confidence intervals and regression lines were omitted from Fig. 1 in this article as originally published. This error was introduced during production. The original article has been corrected.}, }
@article {pmid31370308, year = {2019}, author = {Cabral, H and Fonseca, V and Sousa, T and Costa Leal, M}, title = {Synergistic Effects of Climate Change and Marine Pollution: An Overlooked Interaction in Coastal and Estuarine Areas.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {15}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16152737}, pmid = {31370308}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {UID/MAR/04292/2019//Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia/ ; PTDC/MAR-EST/3048/2014//Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia/ ; SFRH/BPD/115298/2016//Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia/ ; }, abstract = {Coastal areas have been increasingly affected by human activities, marine pollution and climate change are among the most important pressures affecting these environments. Human-induced pressures occur in a cumulative way and generate additive, antagonistic or synergistic effects. Knowledge on synergistic effects is crucial to coastal zone management, since they may imply a change in human uses of these systems, as well as dedicated action plans in order to reduce hazards and environmental risks. In this work, we provide an overview of the available literature on synergistic effects between climate change and chemical pollution, and discuss current knowledge, methodological approaches, and research gaps and needs. Interactions between these two pressures may be climate change dominant (climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure or toxicity) or contaminant-dominant (chemical exposure leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility), but the mechanistic drivers of such processes are not well known. Results from a few meta-analyses studies and reviews showed that synergistic interactions tend to be more frequent compared to additive and antagonistic ones. However, most of the studies are individual-based and assess the cumulative effects of a few contaminants individually in laboratory settings together with few climate variables, particularly temperature and pH. Nevertheless, a wide diversity of contaminants have already been individually tested, spanning from metals, persistent organic pollutants and, more recently, emergent pollutants. Population and community based approaches are less frequent but have generated very interesting and more holistic perspectives. Methodological approaches are quite diverse, from laboratory studies to mesocosm and field studies, or based on statistical or modelling tools, each with their own potential and limitations. More holistic comparisons integrating several pressures and their combinations and a multitude of habitats, taxa, life-stages, among others, are needed, as well as insights from meta-analyses and systematic reviews.}, }
@article {pmid31369172, year = {2019}, author = {Crosman, KM and Bostrom, A and Hayes, AL}, title = {Efficacy Foundations for Risk Communication: How People Think About Reducing the Risks of Climate Change.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13334}, pmid = {31369172}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {Award 1430781//National Science Foundation/ ; Cooperative agreement 1463492//National Science Foundation/ ; P2C HD042828/NICHD NIH HHS/National Institute of Child Health &amp; Human Development/United States ; }, abstract = {Believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self-efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts, according to current risk communication theory. Although the public recognizes the dangers of climate change, and is deluged with lists of possible mitigative actions, little is known about public efficacy beliefs in the context of climate change. Prior efficacy studies rely on conflicting constructs and measures of efficacy, and links between efficacy and risk management actions are muddled. As a result, much remains to learn about how laypersons think about the ease and effectiveness of potential mitigative actions. To bring clarity and inform risk communication and management efforts, we investigate how people think about efficacy in the context of climate change risk management by analyzing unprompted and prompted beliefs from two national surveys (N = 405, N = 1,820). In general, respondents distinguish little between effective and ineffective climate strategies. While many respondents appreciate that reducing fossil fuel use is an effective risk mitigation strategy, overall assessments reflect persistent misconceptions about climate change causes, and uncertainties about the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Our findings suggest targeting climate change risk communication and management strategies to (1) address gaps in people's existing mental models of climate action, (2) leverage existing public understanding of both potentially effective mitigation strategies and the collective action dilemma at the heart of climate change action, and (3) take into account ideologically driven reactions to behavior change and government action framed as climate action.}, }
@article {pmid31367486, year = {2019}, author = {da Silva, JMC and Rapini, A and Barbosa, LCF and Torres, RR}, title = {Extinction risk of narrowly distributed species of seed plants in Brazil due to habitat loss and climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7333}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.7333}, pmid = {31367486}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {In a world where changes in land cover and climate happen faster than ever due to the expansion of human activities, narrowly distributed species are predicted to be the first to go extinct. Studies projecting species extinction in tropical regions consider either habitat loss or climate change as drivers of biodiversity loss but rarely evaluate them together. Here, the contribution of these two factors to the extinction risk of narrowly distributed species (with ranges smaller than 10,000 km2) of seed plants endemic to a fifth-order watershed in Brazil (microendemics) is assessed. We estimated the Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) of these watersheds (areas with microendemics) and projected three scenarios of land use up to the year 2100 based on the average annual rates of habitat loss in these watersheds from 2000 to 2014. These scenarios correspond to immediate conservation action (scenario 1), long-term conservation action (scenario 2), and no conservation action (scenario 3). In each scenario, areas with microendemics were classified into four classes: (1) areas with low risk, (2) areas threatened by habitat loss, (3) areas threatened by climate change, and (4) areas threatened by climate change and habitat loss. We found 2,354 microendemic species of seed plants in 776 areas that altogether cover 17.5% of Brazil. Almost 70% (1,597) of these species are projected to be under high extinction risk by the end of the century due to habitat loss, climate change, or both, assuming that these areas will not lose habitat in the future due to land use. However, if habitat loss in these areas continues at the prevailing annual rates, the number of threatened species is projected to increase to more than 85% (2,054). The importance of climate change and habitat loss as drivers of species extinction varies across phytogeographic domains, and this variation requires the adoption of retrospective and prospective conservation strategies that are context specific. We suggest that tropical countries, such as Brazil, should integrate biodiversity conservation and climate change policies (both mitigation and adaptation) to achieve win-win social and environmental gains while halting species extinction.}, }
@article {pmid31364581, year = {2019}, author = {Logar-Henderson, C and Ling, R and Tuite, AR and Fisman, DN}, title = {Effects of large-scale oceanic phenomena on non-cholera vibriosis incidence in the United States: implications for climate change.}, journal = {Epidemiology and infection}, volume = {147}, number = {}, pages = {e243}, doi = {10.1017/S0950268819001316}, pmid = {31364581}, issn = {1469-4409}, abstract = {Non-cholera Vibrio (NCV) species are important causes of disease. These pathogens are thermophilic and climate change could increase the risk of NCV infection. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a 'natural experiment' that may presage ocean warming effects on disease incidence. In order to evaluate possible climatic contributions to observed increases in NCV infection, we obtained NCV case counts for the United States from publicly available surveillance data. Trends and impacts of large-scale oceanic phenomena, including ENSO, were evaluated using negative binomial and distributed non-linear lag models (DNLM). Associations between latitude and changing risk were evaluated with meta-regression. Trend models demonstrated expected seasonality (P < 0.001) and a 7% (6.1%-8.1%) annual increase in incidence from 1999 to 2014. DNLM demonstrated increased vibriosis risk following ENSO conditions over the subsequent 12 months (relative risk 1.940, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.298-2.901). The 'relative-relative risk' (RRR) of annual disease incidence increased with latitude (RRR per 10° increase 1.066, 95% CI 1.027-1.107). We conclude that NCV risk in the United States is impacted by ocean warming, which is likely to intensify with climate change, increasing NCV risk in vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid31363452, year = {2019}, author = {Rossiello, MR and Szema, A}, title = {Health Effects of Climate Change-induced Wildfires and Heatwaves.}, journal = {Cureus}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {e4771}, doi = {10.7759/cureus.4771}, pmid = {31363452}, issn = {2168-8184}, abstract = {Global warming is a phenomenon that is affecting society in sundry ways. As of 2017, Earth's global surface temperature increased 0.9°C compared to the average temperature in the mid-1900s. Beyond this change in temperature lies significant threats to human health in the form of natural disasters and extreme temperatures. One natural disaster that has been receiving much more attention as of 2010 is the ignition and spread of wildfires. Warmer climates lead to drier conditions, providing ideal kindling for the rapid spread of these infernos. The dangers that these intense fires pose are twofold: first, the fire causes mass property damage, physical harm, or death to the people unfortunate enough to be caught in the blaze; second, the health hazards of smoke inhalation and the emotional strain of losing one's possessions cause immense physical and emotional harm to the fire's victims. Another health hazard that is becoming more common due to global warming is heatwave exposure. The heat provides an ideal environment for certain pathogens to thrive, increases people's risk of developing temperature-related health conditions, and could exacerbate many preexisting diseases. The increase in frequency and intensity of these extreme weather conditions calls for devotion of resources to fire prevention and public health measures related to smoke inhalation and heat exposure.}, }
@article {pmid31362226, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, Y and Wang, Y and Chen, Y and Liang, F and Liu, H}, title = {Assessment of future flash flood inundations in coastal regions under climate change scenarios-A case study of Hadahe River basin in northeastern China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {693}, number = {}, pages = {133550}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.356}, pmid = {31362226}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change may considerably influence flash floods by increasing extreme precipitation. Coastal regions in eastern and southern China may experience especially negative effects because of the frequent occurrence of tropical cyclones (TCs). This study presented a hazard assessment framework for TCs-induced flash floods under climate change scenarios and assessed future inundations in Hadahe River basin, which is in northeastern China. From 1965 to 2014, there were twenty-four TCs ranging from severe tropical storm to super typhoon over Hadahe River basin in twenty years. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are too coarse to depict the impact of TCs on extreme precipitation; therefore, hourly precipitation data from two gauges and the tracks of TCs were used to assess the impact of TCs. An extreme precipitation event on 3-4 August 2012 and the same 600-year future probabilistic extreme rainfall were utilized to investigate the impact of climate change. Daily precipitation data from eight climate models from the NEX-GDDP dataset during 1965-2005 and 2050-2099 represented historical and future simulation conditions, respectively. The hydrologic model HEC-HMS was integrated with the hydraulic model FLO-2D to simulate discharges and inundations of past and future TCs episodes. The results showed that flooded area is projected to increase by 6.6% and 7.8% for inundation depth between 1.0 and 3.0 m under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. For inundation depth over 3.0 m, flooded area is projected to increase by 17.6% and 22.0%. Relative change of flash flood extent increases as inundation depth increases, indicating that climate change is likely to increase the risk of flash floods. Additional adaptation measures are needed to make the Hadahe River basin and other similar coastal basins more resilient. The results also indicated that considering the impact of TCs produces a more reliable assessment of future flash floods in coastal regions.}, }
@article {pmid31360673, year = {2019}, author = {Patella, V and Florio, G and Magliacane, D and Giuliano, A and Russo, LF and D'Amato, V and De Luca, V and Iaccarino, G and Illario, M and Bousquet, J}, title = {Public Prevention Plans to Manage Climate Change and Respiratory Allergic Diseases. Innovative Models Used in Campania Region (Italy): The Twinning Aria Implementation and the Allergy Safe Tree Decalogue.}, journal = {Translational medicine @ UniSa}, volume = {19}, number = {}, pages = {95-102}, pmid = {31360673}, issn = {2239-9747}, abstract = {In recent years, climate change has been influenced by air pollution, and this destructive combination has justifiably sounded an alarm for nations and many institutional bodies worldwide. Official reports state that the emission of greenhouse gases produced by human activity are growing, and consequently also the average temperature. The World Health Organization (WHO) believes that health effects expected in the future due to climate change will be dramatic, and has invited international groups to investigate potential remedies. A task force has been established by the Italian Society of Allergology, Asthma and Clinical Immunology (SIAAIC), with the aim to actively work on correlation between pollution and climate change. The Task Force provided prevention tools to suggest city leaders how to improve the health conditions of allergic people in public urban parks. The &quot;Allergy Safe Tree Decalogue&quot; suggests the preparation and maintenance of public low allergy-impact greenery. Through the Twinning ARIA project, the Division for the Promotion and Enhancement of Health Innovation Programs of Campania Region (Italy), sought to promote the implementation of the project in the regional Health System. The main objective will be to investigate the current use and usefulness of mobile phone Apps in the management of allergic respiratory disease, through Mobile Airways Sentinel networK (MASK), the Phase 3 of the ARIA initiative, based on the freely available MASK App (the Allergy Diary, Android and iOS platforms). The effects of these prevention activities will be registered and compared with monitoring efforts thanks to the Aerobiology Units, located throughout the Campania area. A joint effort between researchers and public administrations for the implementation of prevention plans coherently with the two models proposed in a specific area, i.e. the Decalogue for public administrations and the MASK Allergy Diary app for individual patients suffering from allergy, will be implemented as a pilot.}, }
@article {pmid31359837, year = {2019}, author = {Bertoldo, R and Mays, C and Böhm, G and Poortinga, W and Poumadère, M and Tvinnereim, E and Arnold, A and Steentjes, K and Pidgeon, N}, title = {Scientific truth or debate: On the link between perceived scientific consensus and belief in anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {963662519865448}, doi = {10.1177/0963662519865448}, pmid = {31359837}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {Scientists overwhelmingly agree that climate change exists and is caused by human activity. It has been argued that communicating the consensus can counter climate scepticism, given that perceived scientific consensus is a major factor predicting public belief that climate change is anthropogenic. However, individuals may hold different models of science, potentially affecting their interpretation of scientific consensus. Using representative surveys in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Norway, we assessed whether the relationship between perceived scientific consensus and belief in anthropogenic climate change is conditioned by a person's viewing science as 'the search for truth' or as 'debate'. Results show that perceived scientific consensus is higher among climate change believers and moreover, significantly predicts belief in anthropogenic climate change. This relationship is stronger among people holding a model of science as the 'search for truth'. These results help to disentangle the effect of implicit epistemological assumptions underlying the public understanding of the climate change debate.}, }
@article {pmid31359830, year = {2019}, author = {Duan, R and Takahashi, B and Zwickle, A}, title = {Abstract or concrete? The effect of climate change images on people's estimation of egocentric psychological distance.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {963662519865982}, doi = {10.1177/0963662519865982}, pmid = {31359830}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {Climate change has been widely perceived as a psychologically distant risk, largely viewed as separated from one's direct experience. Using construal-level theory, we examined how the level of abstraction and concreteness of climate change imagery affects viewers' perceived psychological distance of climate change, including spatial, temporal, social, and hypothetical (level of uncertainty) distances. Participants (n = 402) were randomly assigned to one of two experimental conditions, one with abstract images and one with concrete images. Results show that the abstract and concrete images successfully activated people's abstract and concrete mind-sets, respectively, and people who viewed abstract images were more likely to perceive climate change as a spatially and temporally distant issue.}, }
@article {pmid31359147, year = {2019}, author = {Talchabhadel, R and Karki, R}, title = {Assessing climate boundary shifting under climate change scenarios across Nepal.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {8}, pages = {520}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-019-7644-4}, pmid = {31359147}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {This study assesses the climate boundary shifts from the historical time to near/mid future by using a slightly modified Köppen-Geiger (KG) classification scheme and presents comprehensive pictures of historical (1960-1990) and projected near/mid future (1950s: 2040-2060/1970s: 2060-2080) climate classes across Nepal. Ensembles of three selected general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used for projected future analysis. During the 1950s, annual average temperature is expected to increase by 2.5 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, during the 1970s, it is even anticipated to rise by 3.6 °C under RCP 8.5. The rate of temperature rise is higher in the non-monsoon period than in monsoon period. During the 1970s, annual precipitation is projected to increase by 8.1% under RCP 8.5. Even though the precipitation is anticipated to increase in the future in annual scale, winter seasons are estimated to be drier by more than 15%. This study shows significant increments of tropical (Am and Aw) and arid (BSk) climate types and reductions of temperate (Cwa and Cwb) and polar (ET and EF). Noticeably, the reduction of the areal coverage of polar frost (EF) is considerably high. In general, about 50% of the country's area is covered by the temperate climate (Cwa and Cwb) in baseline scenario and it is expected to reduce to 45% under RCP 4.5 and 42.5% under RCP 8.5 during the 1950s, and 42% under RCP 4.5 and 39% under RCP 8.5 during the 1970s. Importantly, the degree of climate boundary shifts is quite higher under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5, and likewise, the degree is higher during the 1970s than the 1950s. We believe this study to facilitate the identification of regions in which impacts of climate change are notable for crop production, soil management, and disaster risk reduction, requiring a more detailed assessment of adaptation measures. The assessment of climate boundary shifting can serve as valuable information for stakeholders of many disciplines like water, climate, transport, energy, environment, disaster, development, agriculture, and tourism.}, }
@article {pmid31359093, year = {2019}, author = {Weaver, CP and Miller, CA}, title = {A Framework for Climate Change-Related Research to Inform Environmental Protection.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {64}, number = {3}, pages = {245-257}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01189-0}, pmid = {31359093}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {A critical charge for science to inform environmental protection is to characterize the risks associated with climate change, to support development of appropriate responses. The nature of climate change, however, presents significant challenges that must be overcome to do so, including the need for integration and synthesis across the many disciplines that contain knowledge relevant for achieving environmental protection goals. This paper describes an interdisciplinary research framework organized around three &quot;Science Challenges&quot; that directly respond to the needs of environmental protection organizations. Broadly, these Science Challenges refer to the research needed to: inform actions to enhance resilience across a broad range of environmental and social stresses to environmental management endpoints; actions to limit GHG emissions and slow the underlying rate of climate change; and the transition to sustainability across the full spectrum of climate change impacts and solutions; all as situated within an overarching risk management perspective. These Challenges span all media and systems critical to effective environmental protection, highlighting the cross-cutting nature of climate change and the need to address its impacts across systems and places. While this framework uses EPA's programs as an illustrative example, the research directions articulated herein are broadly applicable across the spectrum of environmental protection organizations. Going forward, we recommend that climate-related research to inform environmental protection efforts should accelerate its evolution toward research that is inherently cross-media and cross-scale; explicitly considers the social dimensions of change; and focuses on designing solutions to the specific risks climate change poses to the environment and society.}, }
@article {pmid31358788, year = {2019}, author = {Kakumanu, ML and Ma, L and Williams, MA}, title = {Drought-induced soil microbial amino acid and polysaccharide change and their implications for C-N cycles in a climate change world.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {10968}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-46984-1}, pmid = {31358788}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2011-03815//United States Department of Agriculture | National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)/ ; }, abstract = {High microbial carbon (MBC) demand, a proxy for energy demand (cost), during soil microbial response to stressors such as drought are a major gap in understanding global biogeochemical cycling of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). The dynamics of two dominant microbial pools (amino acids; AA and exopolymeric substances; EPS) in soils exposed to drying and C and N amendment to mimic both low and high nutrient soil habitats were examined. It was hypothesized that dynamics of EPS and AA (osmolytes) would be greater when soil drying was preceded by a pulse of bioavailable C and N. Drying reduced AA content, even as overall soil MBC increased (~35%). The increase in absolute amounts and mol% of certain AA (eg: Taurine, glutamine, tyrosine, phenylalanine) in the driest treatment (-10 MPa) were similar in both soils regardless of amendment suggesting a common mechanism underlying the energy intensive acclimation across soils. MBC and EPS, both increased ~1.5X and ~3X due to drying and especially drying associated with amendment. Overall major pools of C and N based microbial metabolites are dynamic to drying (drought), and thus have implications for earth's biogeochemical fluxes of C and N, perhaps costing 4-7% of forest fixed photosynthetic C input during a single drying (drought) period.}, }
@article {pmid31356305, year = {2019}, author = {Paliani, A}, title = {Climate Change Education.}, journal = {The American journal of nursing}, volume = {119}, number = {8}, pages = {10}, doi = {10.1097/01.NAJ.0000577348.86760.b3}, pmid = {31356305}, issn = {1538-7488}, }
@article {pmid31354775, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, Y and Zhao, J and Zhao, P and Wang, H and Wang, B and Su, S and Li, M and Wang, L and Zhu, Q and Pang, Z and Peng, C}, title = {Trait-Based Climate Change Predictions of Vegetation Sensitivity and Distribution in China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {908}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00908}, pmid = {31354775}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) suffer insufficiencies in tracking biochemical cycles and ecosystem fluxes. One important reason for these insufficiencies is that DGVMs use fixed parameters (mostly traits) to distinguish attributes and functions of plant functional types (PFTs); however, these traits vary under different climatic conditions. Therefore, it is urgent to quantify trait covariations, including those among specific leaf area (SLA), area-based leaf nitrogen (Narea), and leaf area index (LAI) (in 580 species across 218 sites in this study), and explore new classification methods that can be applied to model vegetation dynamics under future climate change scenarios. We use a redundancy analysis (RDA) to derive trait-climate relationships and employ a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to project vegetation distributions under different climate scenarios. The results show that (1) the three climatic variables, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and monthly photosynthetically active radiation (mPAR) could capture 65% of the covariations of three functional traits; (2) tropical, subtropical and temperate forest complexes expand while boreal forest, temperate steppe, temperate scrub and tundra shrink under future climate change scenarios; and (3) the GMM classification based on trait covariations should be a powerful candidate for building new generation of DGVM, especially predicting the response of vegetation to future climate changes. This study provides a promising route toward developing reliable, robust and realistic vegetation models and can address a series of limitations in current models.}, }
@article {pmid31352297, year = {2019}, author = {Azani, N and Bruneau, A and Wojciechowski, MF and Zarre, S}, title = {Corrigendum to &quot;Miocene climate change as a driving force for multiple origins of annual species in Astragalus (Fabaceae, Papilionoideae)&quot; [Mol. Phylogenet. Evol. 137 (2019) 210-221].}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {139}, number = {}, pages = {106566}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2019.106566}, pmid = {31352297}, issn = {1095-9513}, }
@article {pmid31352276, year = {2019}, author = {Li, X and Mao, F and Du, H and Zhou, G and Xing, L and Liu, T and Han, N and Liu, Y and Zhu, D and Zheng, J and Dong, L and Zhang, M}, title = {Spatiotemporal evolution and impacts of climate change on bamboo distribution in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {248}, number = {}, pages = {109265}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109265}, pmid = {31352276}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Understanding the impact and restriction of climate change on potential distribution of bamboo forest is crucial for sustainable management of bamboo forest and bamboo-based economic development. In this study, climatic variables and maximum entropy model were used to simulate the potential distribution of bamboo forest in China under the future climate scenarios. Seven climatic variables, such as Spring precipitation, Summer precipitation, Autumn precipitation, average annual relative humidity, Autumn average temperature, average annual temperature range and annual total radiation, were selected as input variables of maximum entropy model based on the relative importance of those climate variables for predicting bamboo forest presence. The suitable ranges of the seven climatic variables for potential distribution of bamboo forest were 337-794 mm, 496-705 mm, 213-929 mm, 74.3%-83.4%, 16.6-23.8 °C, 2.3-10.1 °C and 3.2 × 104-4.3 × 104 W m-2, respectively. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the suitable area of bamboo forest growth first increased and then decreased, and showed range contractions towards the interior and expansions towards southwest in China. The results of the present study can serve as a useful reference to dynamic monitoring of the spatial distribution and sustainable utilization of bamboo forest in the future under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31351296, year = {2019}, author = {Lefebvre, G and Redmond, L and Germain, C and Palazzi, E and Terzago, S and Willm, L and Poulin, B}, title = {Predicting the vulnerability of seasonally-flooded wetlands to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {692}, number = {}, pages = {546-555}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.263}, pmid = {31351296}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Wetlands have been declining worldwide over the last century with climate change becoming an additional pressure, especially in regions already characterized by water deficit. This paper investigates how climate change will affect the values and functions of Mediterranean seasonally-flooded wetlands with emergent vegetation. We simulated the future evolution of water balance, wetland condition and water volumes necessary to maintain these ecosystems at mid- and late- 21st century, in 229 localities around the Mediterranean basin. We considered future projections of the relevant climatic variables under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios assuming a stabilization (RCP4.5) or increase (RCP 8.5) of greenhouse gases emissions. We found similar increases of water deficits at most localities around 2050 under both RCP scenarios. By 2100, however, water deficits under RCP 8.5 are expected to be more severe and will impact all localities. Simulations performed under current conditions show that 97% of localities could have wetland habitats in good state. By 2050, however, this proportion would decrease to 81% and 68% under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, decreasing further to 52% and 27% by 2100. Our results suggest that wetlands can persist with up to a 400 mm decrease in annual precipitation. Such resilience to climate change is attributed to the semi-permanent character of wetlands (lower evaporation on dry ground) and their capacity to act as reservoir (higher precipitation expected in some countries during winter). Countries at highest risk of wetland degradation and loss are Algeria, Morocco, Portugal and Spain. Degradation of wetlands with emergent vegetation will negatively affect their biodiversity and the services they provide by eliminating animal refuges and primary resources for industry and tourism. A sound strategy to preserve these wetlands would consist of proactive management to reduce non-climate stressors.}, }
@article {pmid31350447, year = {2019}, author = {Sato, T and Nakamura, T}, title = {Intensification of hot Eurasian summers by climate change and land-atmosphere interactions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {10866}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-47291-5}, pmid = {31350447}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {Arctic Challenge for Sustainability//Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT)/ ; Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) Project//Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT)/ ; 15H05464//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; }, abstract = {Persistent abnormal hot weather can cause considerable damage to human society and natural environments. In northern Eurasia, the recent change in summer surface air temperature exhibits a heterogeneous pattern with accelerated warming around the Eastern European Plain and Central Siberia, forming a wave train-like structure. However, the key factors that determine the magnitude and spatial distribution of this summer temperature trend remain unclear. Here, a huge ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations show that the recent summer temperature trend has been intensified by two factors: steady warming induced by external forcing and inhomogeneous warming induced by internal atmosphere-land interactions that amplify quasi-stationary waves. The latter is sensitive to both snow cover and soil moisture anomalies in the spring, suggesting the potential of land surface monitoring for better seasonal prediction of summer temperatures. Dramatic changes in the circumpolar environment, characterised by Eurasian snow variation and Arctic Ocean warming, collectively affect summertime climate via memory effects of the land surface.}, }
@article {pmid31350054, year = {2019}, author = {Baltar, F and Bayer, B and Bednarsek, N and Deppeler, S and Escribano, R and Gonzalez, CE and Hansman, RL and Mishra, RK and Moran, MA and Repeta, DJ and Robinson, C and Sintes, E and Tamburini, C and Valentin, LE and Herndl, GJ}, title = {Towards Integrating Evolution, Metabolism, and Climate Change Studies of Marine Ecosystems.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2019.07.003}, pmid = {31350054}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {Global environmental changes are challenging the structure and functioning of ecosystems. However, a mechanistic understanding of how global environmental changes will affect ecosystems is still lacking. The complex and interacting biological and physical processes spanning vast temporal and spatial scales that constitute an ecosystem make this a formidable problem. A unifying framework based on ecological theory, that considers fundamental and realized niches, combined with metabolic, evolutionary, and climate change studies, is needed to provide the mechanistic understanding required to evaluate and forecast the future of marine communities, ecosystems, and their services.}, }
@article {pmid31349129, year = {2019}, author = {Palinkas, LA and Wong, M}, title = {Global climate change and mental health.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {32}, number = {}, pages = {12-16}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2019.06.023}, pmid = {31349129}, issn = {2352-2518}, abstract = {Although several empirical studies and systematic reviews have documented the mental health impacts of global climate change, the range of impacts has not been well understood. This review examines mental health impacts of three types of climate-related events: (1) acute events such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires; (2) subacute or long-term changes such as drought and heat stress; and (3) the existential threat of long-lasting changes, including higher temperatures, rising sea levels and a permanently altered and potentially uninhabitable physical environment. The impacts represent both direct (i.e. heat stress) and indirect (i.e. economic loss, threats to health and well-being, displacement and forced migration, collective violence and civil conflict, and alienation from a degraded environment) consequences of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31348418, year = {2019}, author = {Storz, MA}, title = {Medical Conferences and Climate Change Mitigation: Challenges, Opportunities and Omissions.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000001681}, pmid = {31348418}, issn = {1536-5948}, }
@article {pmid31346284, year = {2018}, author = {Kline, R and Seltzer, N and Lukinova, E and Bynum, A}, title = {Differentiated responsibilities and prosocial behaviour in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature human behaviour}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {653-661}, doi = {10.1038/s41562-018-0418-0}, pmid = {31346284}, issn = {2397-3374}, mesh = {*Altruism ; China ; *Climate Change/economics ; Conservation of Energy Resources/economics ; Cooperative Behavior ; Economic Development ; Humans ; Internationality ; *Social Responsibility ; United States ; }, abstract = {A characteristic feature of the global climate change dilemma is interdependence between the underlying economic development that drives anthropogenic climate change-typically modelled as a common pool resource dilemma1,2-and the subsequent dilemma arising from the need to mitigate the negative effects of climate change, often modelled as a public goods dilemma3,4. In other words, in a carbon-based economy, causal responsibility for climate change is a byproduct of economic development, and is therefore endogenous to it. To capture this endogeneity, we combine these two dilemmas into a 'compound climate dilemma' and conduct a series of incentivized experiments in the United States and China to test its implications for cooperation and prosocial behaviour. Here we show that, in a differentiated development condition, even while the advantaged parties increase their prosociality relative to an endogenous but homogeneous baseline condition, the accompanying decrease in cooperative behaviour by the disadvantaged parties more than offsets it. Furthermore, compared with exogenous but identically parameterized control conditions, this endogeneity decreases cooperation in the mitigation dilemma. In light of this interdependence, the basis upon which mitigation obligations should be differentiated becomes an additional dimension of conflict, with implications for domestic politics and international negotiations discussed5,6.}, }
@article {pmid31345416, year = {2019}, author = {Verheecke-Vaessen, C and Diez-Gutierrez, L and Renaud, J and Sumarah, M and Medina, A and Magan, N}, title = {Interacting climate change environmental factors effects on Fusarium langsethiae growth, expression of Tri genes and T-2/HT-2 mycotoxin production on oat-based media and in stored oats.}, journal = {Fungal biology}, volume = {123}, number = {8}, pages = {618-624}, doi = {10.1016/j.funbio.2019.04.008}, pmid = {31345416}, issn = {1878-6146}, abstract = {This study examined the effect of climate change (CC) abiotic factors of temperature (20, 25, 30 °C), water activity (aw; 0.995, 0.98) and CO2 exposure (400, 1000 ppm) may have on (a) growth, (b) gene expression of biosynthetic toxin genes (Tri5, Tri6, Tri16), and (c) T-2/HT-2 toxins and associated metabolites by Fusarium langsethiae on oat-based media and in stored oats. Lag phases and growth were optimum at 25 °C with freely available water. This was significantly reduced at 30 °C, at 0.98 aw and 1000 ppm CO2 exposure. In oat-based media and stored oats, Tri5 gene expression was reduced in all conditions except 30 °C, 0.98 aw, elevated CO2 where there was a significant (5.3-fold) increase. The Tri6 and Tri16 genes were upregulated, especially in elevated CO2 conditions. Toxin production was higher at 25 °C than 30 °C. In stored oats, at 0.98 aw, elevated CO2 led to a significant increase (73-fold) increase in T2/HT-2 toxin, especially at 30 °C. Nine T-2 and HT-2 related metabolites were detected, including a new dehydro T-2 toxin (which correlated with T-2 production) and the conjugate, HT-2 toxin, glucuronide. This shows that CC factors may have a significant impact on growth and mycotoxin production by F. langsethiae.}, }
@article {pmid31344572, year = {2019}, author = {O'Neill, EA and Rowan, NJ and Fogarty, AM}, title = {Novel use of the alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, as an early-warning indicator to identify climate change ambiguity in aquatic environments using freshwater finfish farming as a case study.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {692}, number = {}, pages = {209-218}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.243}, pmid = {31344572}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Aquaculture is one of the fastest growing food producing industries in the world. This dramatic increase in growth has raised many environmental concerns. Evaluation of fish farm effluent is frequently assessed by physicochemical parameters. This approach indicates potential degradation caused by the effluent and not cumulative effects on aquatic ecosystems. This study investigated relationships between physicochemical parameters (temperature, pH, conductivity, nitrogen, phosphorus, oxygen and suspended solids), typically used to assess water quality with the Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata algal bioassay, which evaluated the potential ecotoxicological effects that freshwater fish farm effluent has on its receiving ecosystems and organisms. Influent and effluent samples were collected from a freshwater farm facility every two weeks from April 2018 to October 2018 in the Republic of Ireland. This monitoring period coincided with one of the warmest and driest periods recorded by meteorological stations in the Republic of Ireland. Physicochemical analyses were found to be similar to those in other farm studies. After exposure of algae to the effluent, stimulation of algal growth rates increased by >50%. This stimulation was observed during periods of increased temperatures which were as a result of heat wave and drought conditions experienced during monitoring. Correlation studies identified a moderately strong relationship between algal stimulation and temperature (r = -0.619). This study discovered that removal of Lemna minor (aquatic plant), impacted strongly on the freshwater farm pond-process to cope with nitrates. The constructed wetland system was unable to efficiently treat nitrates and phosphates during conditions of drought. These findings indicate that standard water quality parameters may not be applicable to inform appropriate suitability of fish farm effluent for discharge to receiving water. The research conducted in this study has suggested a potential toolbox that includes P. subcapitata may provide an early warning system for adverse effects as a result of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31344391, year = {2019}, author = {Iltis, C and Louâpre, P and Pecharová, K and Thiéry, D and Zito, S and Bois, B and Moreau, J}, title = {Are life-history traits equally affected by global warming? A case study combining a multi-trait approach with fine-grain climate modeling.}, journal = {Journal of insect physiology}, volume = {117}, number = {}, pages = {103916}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinsphys.2019.103916}, pmid = {31344391}, issn = {1879-1611}, abstract = {Predicting species responses to climate change requires tracking the variation in individual performance following exposure to warming conditions. One ecologically relevant approach consists of examining the thermal responses of a large number of traits, both related with population dynamics and trophic interactions (i.e. a multi-trait approach). Based on in situ climatic data and projections from climate models, we here designed two daily fluctuating thermal regimes realistically reflecting current and future conditions in Eastern France. These models detected an increase in mean temperature and in the range of daily thermal fluctuations as two local facets of global warming likely to occur in our study area by the end of this century. We then examined the responses of several fitness-related traits in caterpillars of the moth Lobesia botrana - including development, pupal mass, survival rates, energetic reserves, behavioral and immune traits expressed against parasitoids - to this experimental imitation of global warming. Increasing temperatures positively affected development (leading to a 31% reduction in the time needed to complete larval stage), survival rates (+19%), and movement speed as a surrogate for larval escape ability to natural enemies (+60%). Conversely, warming elicited detrimental effects on lipid reserves (-26%) and immunity (total phenoloxidase activity: -34%). These findings confirm that traits should differ in their sensitivity to global warming, underlying complex consequences for population dynamics and trophic interactions. Our study strengthens the importance of combining a multi-trait approach with the use of realistic fluctuating regimes to forecast the consequences of global warming for individuals, species and species assemblages.}, }
@article {pmid31344307, year = {2019}, author = {Goode, AG and Brady, DC and Steneck, RS and Wahle, RA}, title = {The brighter side of climate change: How local oceanography amplified a lobster boom in the Gulf of Maine.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14778}, pmid = {31344307}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//University of Maine/ ; NA11NOS0120034//National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ ; //Maine Department of Marine Resources/ ; //Maine Sea Grant, University of Maine/ ; 1325484//National Science Foundation/ ; IIA-1355457//National Science Foundation/ ; NA140AR4320158//NOAA-Fisheries and the Environment/ ; }, abstract = {Ocean warming can drive poleward shifts of commercially important species with potentially significant economic impacts. Nowhere are those impacts greater than in the Gulf of Maine where North America's most valuable marine species, the American lobster (Homarus americanus Milne Edwards), has thrived for decades. However, there are growing concerns that regional maritime economies will suffer as monitored shallow water young-of-year lobsters decline and landings shift to the northeast. We examine how the interplay of ocean warming, tidal mixing, and larval behavior results in a brighter side of climate change. Since the 1980s lobster stocks have increased fivefold. We suggest that this increase resulted from a complex interplay between lobster larvae settlement behavior, climate change, and local oceanographic conditions. Specifically, postlarval sounding behavior is confined to a thermal envelope above 12°C and below 20°C. Summer thermally stratified surface waters in southwestern regions have historically been well within the settlement thermal envelope. Although surface layers are warming fastest in this region, the steep depth-wise temperature gradient caused thermally suitable areas for larval settlement to expand only modestly. This contrasts with the northeast where strong tidal mixing prevents thermal stratification and recent ocean warming has made an expansive area of seabed more favorable for larval settlement. Recent declines in lobster settlement densities observed at shallow monitoring sites correlate with the expanded area of thermally suitable habitat associated with warmer summers. This leads us to hypothesize that the expanded area of suitable habitat may help explain strong lobster population increases in this region over the last decade and offset potential future declines. It also suggests that the fate of fisheries in a changing climate requires understanding local interaction between life stage-specific biological thresholds and finer scale oceanographic processes.}, }
@article {pmid31341729, year = {2019}, author = {Aguilera-Molina, VM and Munguía-Ortega, KK and López-Reyes, E and Martínez-Aquino, A and Ceccarelli, FS}, title = {Climate change and forest plagues: assessing current and future impacts of diprionid sawflies on the pine forests of north-western Mexico.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7220}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.7220}, pmid = {31341729}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {The imminent threat of climate change lies in its potential to disrupt the balance of ecosystems, particularly vulnerable areas such as mountain-top remnant forests. An example of such a fragile ecosystem is the Sierra San Pedro Mártir (SSPM) National Park of Mexico's Baja California state, where high levels of endemism can be found, and which is home to one of the country's few populations of the emblematic Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi). Recent outbreaks of pine-feeding sawfly larvae in SSPM increase the vulnerability of this forest ecosystem, calling for immediate assessments of the severity of this threat. Here, we present a thorough study of the sawfly's biology and distribution, carrying out molecular and morphology-based identification of the species and creating model-based predictions of the species distribution in the area. The sawfly was found to belong to an undescribed species of the genus Zadiprion (family Diprionidae) with a one-year life-cycle. The distribution of this species appears to be restricted to the SSPM national park and it will probably persist for at least another 50 years, even considering the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31340512, year = {2019}, author = {Chua, PL and Dorotan, MM and Sigua, JA and Estanislao, RD and Hashizume, M and Salazar, MA}, title = {Scoping Review of Climate Change and Health Research in the Philippines: A Complementary Tool in Research Agenda-Setting.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {14}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16142624}, pmid = {31340512}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {None//Philippine Council for Health Research and Development/ ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on human health have been observed and projected in the Philippines as vector-borne and heat-related diseases have and continue to increase. As a response, the Philippine government has given priority to climate change and health as one of the main research funding topics. To guide in identifying more specific research topics, a scoping review was done to complement the agenda-setting process by mapping out the extent of climate change and health research done in the country. Research articles and grey literature published from 1980 to 2017 were searched from online databases and search engines, and a total of 34 quantitative studies were selected. Fifty-three percent of the health topics studied were about mosquito-borne diseases, particularly dengue fever. Seventy-nine percent of the studies reported evidence of positive associations between climate factors and health outcomes. Recommended broad research themes for funding were health vulnerability, health adaptation, and co-benefits. Other notable recommendations were the development of open data and reproducible modeling schemes. In conclusion, the scoping review was useful in providing a background for research agenda-setting; however, additional analyses or consultations should be complementary for added depth.}, }
@article {pmid31337752, year = {2019}, author = {Radchuk, V and Reed, T and Teplitsky, C and van de Pol, M and Charmantier, A and Hassall, C and Adamík, P and Adriaensen, F and Ahola, MP and Arcese, P and Miguel Avilés, J and Balbontin, J and Berg, KS and Borras, A and Burthe, S and Clobert, J and Dehnhard, N and de Lope, F and Dhondt, AA and Dingemanse, NJ and Doi, H and Eeva, T and Fickel, J and Filella, I and Fossøy, F and Goodenough, AE and Hall, SJG and Hansson, B and Harris, M and Hasselquist, D and Hickler, T and Joshi, J and Kharouba, H and Martínez, JG and Mihoub, JB and Mills, JA and Molina-Morales, M and Moksnes, A and Ozgul, A and Parejo, D and Pilard, P and Poisbleau, M and Rousset, F and Rödel, MO and Scott, D and Senar, JC and Stefanescu, C and Stokke, BG and Kusano, T and Tarka, M and Tarwater, CE and Thonicke, K and Thorley, J and Wilting, A and Tryjanowski, P and Merilä, J and Sheldon, BC and Pape Møller, A and Matthysen, E and Janzen, F and Dobson, FS and Visser, ME and Beissinger, SR and Courtiol, A and Kramer-Schadt, S}, title = {Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {3109}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4}, pmid = {31337752}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {ERC-2014-StG-639192-ALH//EC | European Research Council (ERC)/ ; ERC-2013-StG-337365-SHE//EC | European Research Council (ERC)/ ; 265859//Suomen Akatemia | Biotieteiden ja Ympäristön Tutkimuksen Toimikunta (Research Council for Biosciences and Environment)/ ; 621-2014-5222//Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas (Swedish Research Council Formas)/ ; }, abstract = {Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.}, }
@article {pmid31337723, year = {2019}, author = {Casadevall, A and Kontoyiannis, DP and Robert, V}, title = {On the Emergence of Candida auris: Climate Change, Azoles, Swamps, and Birds.}, journal = {mBio}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1128/mBio.01397-19}, pmid = {31337723}, issn = {2150-7511}, support = {R01 AI052733/NIAID NIH HHS/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Extramural Activities/United States ; }, abstract = {The most enigmatic aspect of the rise of Candida auris as a human pathogen is that it emerged simultaneously on three continents, with each clade being genetically distinct. Although new pathogenic fungal species are described regularly, these are mostly species associated with single cases in individuals who are immunosuppressed. In this study, we used phylogenetic analysis to compare the temperature susceptibility of C. auris with those of its close relatives and to use these results to argue that it may be the first example of a new fungal disease emerging from climate change, with the caveat that many other factors may have contributed.}, }
@article {pmid31332869, year = {2019}, author = {McCauley, LA and Robles, MD and Woolley, T and Marshall, RM and Kretchun, A and Gori, DF}, title = {Large-scale forest restoration stabilizes carbon under climate change in Southwest United States.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e01979}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1979}, pmid = {31332869}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {//Anne Ray Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Higher tree density, more fuels, and a warmer, drier climate have caused an increase in the frequency, size, and severity of wildfires in western U.S. forests. There is an urgent need to restore forests across the western United States. To address this need, the U.S. Forest Service began the Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4FRI) to restore four national forests in Arizona. The objective of this study was to evaluate how restoration of ~400,000 ha under the 4FRI program and projected climate change would influence carbon dynamics and wildfire severity from 2010 to 2099. Specifically, we estimated forest carbon fluxes, carbon pools and wildfire severity under a moderate and fast 4FRI implementation schedule and compared those to status quo and no-harvest scenarios using the LANDIS-II simulation model and climate change projections. We found that the fast-4FRI scenario showed early decreases in ecosystem carbon due to initial thinning/prescribed fire treatments, but total ecosystem carbon increased by 9-18% over no harvest by the end of the simulation. This increased carbon storage by 6.3-12.7 million metric tons, depending on the climate model, equating to removal of carbon emissions from 55,000 to 110,000 passenger vehicles per year until the end of the century. Nearly half of the additional carbon was stored in more stable soil pools. However, climate models with the largest predicted temperature increases showed declines by late century in ecosystem carbon despite restoration. Our study uses data from a real-world, large-scale restoration project and indicates that restoration is likely to stabilize carbon and the benefits are greater when the pace of restoration is faster.}, }
@article {pmid31331441, year = {2019}, author = {Yan, SM and Wu, G}, title = {Impact of Temperature on Influenza A Status during Global Warming Hiatus.}, journal = {Biomedical and environmental sciences : BES}, volume = {32}, number = {7}, pages = {554-557}, doi = {10.3967/bes2019.073}, pmid = {31331441}, issn = {2214-0190}, }
@article {pmid31329608, year = {2019}, author = {Cheung, C and Zhang, H and Hepburn, JC and Yang, DY and Richards, MP}, title = {Stable isotope and dental caries data reveal abrupt changes in subsistence economy in ancient China in response to global climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0218943}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218943}, pmid = {31329608}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Prior to the introduction of wheat and barley from Central Asia during the Neolithic period, northern Chinese agricultural groups subsisted heavily on millet. Despite being the focus of many decades of intensive interest and research, the exact route(s), date(s), and mechanisms of the spread and adoption of wheat and barley into the existing well-established millet-based diet in northern China are still debated. As the majority of the important introduced crops are C3 plants, while the indigenous millet is C4, archaeologists can effectively identify the consumption of any introduced crops using stable carbon isotope analysis. Here we examine published stable isotope and dental caries data of human skeletal remains from 77 archaeological sites across northern and northwestern China. These sites date between 9000 to 1750 BP, encompassing the period from the beginning of agriculture to wheat's emergence as a staple crop in northern China. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implications of the spread and adoption of these crops in ancient China. Detailed analysis of human bone collagen δ13C values reveals an almost concurrent shift from a C4-based to a mixed C3/ C4- based subsistence economy across all regions at around 4500-4000 BP. This coincided with a global climatic event, Holocene Event 3 at 4200 BP, suggesting that the sudden change in subsistence economy across northern and northwestern China was likely related to climate change. Moreover, the substantially increased prevalence of dental caries from pre-to post-4000 BP indicates an increase in the consumption of cariogenic cereals during the later period. The results from this study have significant implications for understanding how the adoption of a staple crop can be indicative of large-scale environmental and socio-political changes in a region.}, }
@article {pmid31329592, year = {2019}, author = {Han, P and Lin, X and Zhang, W and Wang, G and Wang, Y}, title = {Projected changes of alpine grassland carbon dynamics in response to climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0215261}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0215261}, pmid = {31329592}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The Tibetan Plateau is an important component of the global carbon cycle due to the large permafrost carbon pool and its vulnerability to climate warming. The Tibetan Plateau has experienced a noticeable warming over the past few decades and is projected to continue warming in the future. However, the direction and magnitude of carbon fluxes responses to climate change and elevated CO2 concentration under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios in the Tibetan Plateau grassland are poorly known. Here, we used a calibrated and validated biogeochemistry model, CENTURY, to quantify the contributions of climate change and elevated CO2 on the future carbon budget in the alpine grassland under three RCP scenarios. Though the Tibetan Plateau grassland was projected a net carbon sink of 16 ~ 25 Tg C yr-1 in the 21st century, the capacity of carbon sequestration was predicted to decrease gradually because climate-driven increases in heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (with linear slopes 0.49 ~ 1.62 g C m-2 yr-1) was greater than the net primary production (NPP) (0.35 ~ 1.52 g C m-2 yr-1). However, the elevated CO2 contributed more to plant growth (1.9% ~ 7.3%) than decomposition (1.7% ~ 6.1%), which could offset the warming-induced carbon loss. The interannual and decadal-scale dynamics of the carbon fluxes in the alpine grassland were primarily controlled by temperature, while the role of precipitation became increasingly important in modulating carbon cycle. The strengthened correlation between precipitation and carbon budget suggested that further research should consider the performance of precipitation in evaluating carbon dynamics in a warmer climate scenario.}, }
@article {pmid31326760, year = {2019}, author = {Graham, H and de Bell, S and Hanley, N and Jarvis, S and White, PCL}, title = {Willingness to pay for policies to reduce future deaths from climate change: evidence from a British survey.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {174}, number = {}, pages = {110-117}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2019.06.001}, pmid = {31326760}, issn = {1476-5616}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Without urgent action, climate change will put the health of future populations at risk. Policies to reduce these risks require support from today's populations; however, there are few studies assessing public support for such policies. Willingness to pay (WtP), a measure of the maximum a person is prepared to pay for a defined benefit, is widely used to assess public support for policies. We used WtP to investigate whether there is public support to reduce future health risks from climate change and if individual and contextual factors affect WtP, including perceptions of the seriousness of the impacts of climate change.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional British survey.<br><br>METHODS: Questions about people's WtP for policies to reduce future climate change-related deaths and their perceptions of the seriousness of climate change impacts were included in a British survey of adults aged 16 years and over (n=1859). We used contingent valuation, a survey-based method for eliciting WtP for outcomes like health which do not have a direct market value.<br><br>RESULTS: The majority (61%) were willing to pay to reduce future increases in climate change-related deaths in Britain. Those regarding climate change impacts as not at all serious were less willing to pay than those regarding the impacts as extremely serious (OR 0.04, 95% CI 0.02-0.09). Income was also related to WtP; the highest-income group were twice as likely to be willing to pay as the lowest-income group (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.40-3.29).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There was public support for policies to address future health impacts of climate change; the level of support varied with people's perceptions of the seriousness of these impacts and their financial circumstances. Our study adds to evidence that health, including the health of future populations, is an outcome that people value and suggests that framing climate change around such values may help to accelerate action.}, }
@article {pmid31326726, year = {2019}, author = {Xu, T and Li, K and Engel, BA and Jia, H and Leng, L and Sun, Z and Yu, SL}, title = {Optimal adaptation pathway for sustainable low impact development planning under deep uncertainty of climate change: A greedy strategy.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {248}, number = {}, pages = {109280}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109280}, pmid = {31326726}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Robustness and cost effectiveness are major concerns for sustainable stormwater management under deep uncertainty of climate change. Given that many traditional static planning strategies are not working with unpredictable future conditions, the possibility of system failure, and the lock-in effects, the Adaptation Pathway (AP) approach was adopted for dynamically robust and cost-effective planning in this paper. In order to increase optimization accuracy of multi-staged planning, a continuous definition of the AP optimization problem was raised by improving the simplified versions in existing studies. A case study in Suzhou, a provincial pilot Sponge City in China undergoing increasing annual rainfall and severe water environment deterioration, was included by integrating Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-Low Impact Development model with optimization methods, aiming to persistently control the non-point source total phosphorus loading below an acceptable amount in the following unforeseen 20 years via multi-staged low-impact development (LID) construction. A novel optimization method developed by the authors in a companion paper, namely marginal-cost-based greedy strategy (MCGS), was successfully applied to efficiently solve the continuous version of the AP optimization problem. The popular genetic algorithm (GA) was used as a contrast. A weather generator was elaborated based on four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios and 17 spatial downscaled general circulation models to simulate the unforeseen future annual rainfalls that helped with evaluating cost effectiveness of each prospective LID plan. Results showed that the adaptation pathways optimized by MCGS could save the whole life net present cost of an LID plan by 1%-60% compared with those optimized by GA, and the computational efficiency of MCGS was over 13 times faster than GA.}, }
@article {pmid31326071, year = {2019}, author = {Beach, RH and Sulser, TB and Crimmins, A and Cenacchi, N and Cole, J and Fukagawa, NK and Mason-D'Croz, D and Myers, S and Sarofim, MC and Smith, M and Ziska, LH}, title = {Combining the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on protein, iron, and zinc availability and projected climate change on global diets: a modelling study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {7}, pages = {e307-e317}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30094-4}, pmid = {31326071}, issn = {2542-5196}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) affect global nutrition via effects on agricultural productivity and nutrient content of food crops. We combined these effects with economic projections to estimate net changes in nutrient availability between 2010 and 2050.<br><br>METHODS: In this modelling study, we used the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade to project per capita availability of protein, iron, and zinc in 2050. We used estimated changes in productivity of individual agricultural commodities to model effects on production, trade, prices, and consumption under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Two independent sources of data, which used different methodologies to determine the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on different key crops, were combined with the modelled food supply results to estimate future nutrient availability.<br><br>FINDINGS: Although technological change, market responses, and the effects of CO2 fertilisation on yield are projected to increase global availability of dietary protein, iron, and zinc, these increases are moderated by negative effects of climate change affecting productivity and carbon penalties on nutrient content. The carbon nutrient penalty results in decreases in the global availability of dietary protein of 4·1%, iron of 2·8%, and zinc of 2·5% as calculated using one dataset, and decreases in global availability of dietary protein of 2·9%, iron of 3·9%, and zinc of 3·4% using the other dataset. The combined effects of projected increases in atmospheric CO2 (ie, carbon nutrient penalty, CO2 fertilisation, and climate effects on productivity) will decrease growth in the global availability of nutrients by 19·5% for protein, 14·4% for iron, and 14·6% for zinc relative to expected technology and market gains by 2050. The many countries that currently have high levels of nutrient deficiency would continue to be disproportionately affected.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: This approach is an improvement in estimating future global food security by simultaneously projecting climate change effects on crop productivity and changes in nutrient content under increased concentrations of CO2, which accounts for a much larger effect on nutrient availability than CO2 fertilisation. Regardless of the scenario used to project future consumption patterns, the net effect of increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 will slow progress in decreasing global nutrient deficiencies.<br><br>FUNDING: US Environmental Protection Agency, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CIGAR) Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM), and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change and Food Security (CCAFS).}, }
@article {pmid31326066, year = {2019}, author = {Ebi, KL and Loladze, I}, title = {Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate change will affect our food's quality and quantity.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {7}, pages = {e283-e284}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30108-1}, pmid = {31326066}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid31326065, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, T and Ma, W}, title = {Climate change and health: more research on adaptation is needed.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {7}, pages = {e281-e282}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30112-3}, pmid = {31326065}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid31324617, year = {2019}, author = {Jones, B}, title = {Doctors sign open letter demanding government action on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {l4696}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l4696}, pmid = {31324617}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid31322439, year = {2019}, author = {Onozuka, D and Gasparrini, A and Sera, F and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y}, title = {Modeling Future Projections of Temperature-Related Excess Morbidity due to Infectious Gastroenteritis under Climate Change Conditions in Japan.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {127}, number = {7}, pages = {77006}, doi = {10.1289/EHP4731}, pmid = {31322439}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {MR/M022625/1//Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has marked implications for the burden of infectious diseases. However, no studies have estimated future projections of climate change–related excess morbidity due to diarrhea according to climate change scenarios.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We aimed to examine temperature-infectious gastroenteritis associations throughout Japan and project temperature-related morbidity concomitant with climate change for the 2090s.<br><br>METHODS: Weekly time series of average temperature and morbidity for infectious gastroenteritis cases in the period 2005-2015 were collated from the 47 Japanese prefectures. A two-stage time-series analysis was adopted to estimate temperature-infectious gastroenteritis relationships. Time series of present and future average daily temperature fluctuations were projected for the four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) according to five general circulation models. Excess morbidity for high and low temperatures and the net change in the period 1990–2099 were projected for each climate change scenario by assuming the absence of adaptation and population alterations.<br><br>RESULTS: In the period 2005–2015, 11,529,833 infectious gastroenteritis cases were reported. There were net reductions in temperature-induced excess morbidity under higher emission scenarios. The net change in the projection period 2090-2099 in comparison with 2010–2019 was [Formula: see text] (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: [Formula: see text], 0.5) for RCP2.6, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP4.5, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP6.0, and [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP8.5, and the higher the emissions scenario, the larger the estimates reductions. Spatial heterogeneity in the temperature-morbidity relationship was observed among prefectures (Cochran Q test, [Formula: see text]; [Formula: see text]).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Japan may experience a net reduction in temperature-related excess morbidity due to infectious gastroenteritis in higher emission scenarios. These results might be because the majority of temperature-related diarrhea cases in Japan are attributable to viral infections during the winter season. Further projections of specific pathogen-induced infectious gastroenteritis due to climate change are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4731.}, }
@article {pmid31319319, year = {2019}, author = {Morton, S and Pencheon, D and Bickler, G}, title = {The sustainable development goals provide an important framework for addressing dangerous climate change and achieving wider public health benefits.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {174}, number = {}, pages = {65-68}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2019.05.018}, pmid = {31319319}, issn = {1476-5616}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To suggest how public health systems and the health sector can utilise the United Nation (UN) sustainable development goals (SDGs) to address climate change and other threats to future health and deliver immediate public health benefits.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We examined UN and World Health Organisation guidance on SDGs and other published texts on systems thinking, integration, universality and co-benefits.<br><br>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The UN SDGs are a set of globally agreed objectives to end poverty, protect all that makes the planet habitable and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity. The SDGs integrate the three dimensions of sustainable development (economic, environmental and social), they apply to high-income countries as well as developing countries and there are mechanisms to hold countries to account. There are three crucial issues for public health. First, a systems approach to future proof health and social justice. Second, an evidence-based approach to aid communication, framing and engagement. And, third, the importance of interventions that deliver health co-benefits (i.e. both immediate and long-term benefits to health, equity and prosperity). The SDGs present public health professionals with an important opportunity to create the right conditions for a better future through the organised efforts of society.}, }
@article {pmid31319170, year = {2019}, author = {Diele-Viegas, LM and Werneck, FP and Rocha, CFD}, title = {Climate change effects on population dynamics of three species of Amazonian lizards.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {236}, number = {}, pages = {110530}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.110530}, pmid = {31319170}, issn = {1531-4332}, abstract = {The scarcity of data on natural history and ecology of lizards still limits the understanding of population dynamics for many species. We attempt to evaluate possible effects of climate change on the population dynamics of three lizard species (Ameiva ameiva, Gonatodes humeralis and Norops fuscoauratus) in two Amazonian localities (Caxiuanã National Forest and Ducke Reserve). We calculated a tolerance index combining environmental thermal adequacy with the b-d model, which consider survival and reproductive rates to calculate population dynamics. Thus, we simulated population growth rates based on current and future environmental operative temperatures, considering an optimistic and a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gases emissions (GGE), and evaluate if the sensitivity of life history traits to population growth rate are likely to be trigged by climate change. Our results demonstrated that both populations of G. humeralis and the Ducke population of N. fuscoauratus may become locally extinct under both scenarios of GGE, while both populations of A. ameiva are likely to decrease, but without reaching a scenario of local extirpation. This study represents the first effort to evaluate the sensitivity of lizard populations and elasticity to climate change and demonstrate the geographic variability of these traits in three widespread and habitat-generalist species. We highlight the need of new studies focusing on species with different biological trait patterns, such as endemic distributions and habitat-specialists, to provide the theoretical and empirical basis for biologically informed conservation strategies and actions, in order to minimize the potential extinction of populations due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31315172, year = {2019}, author = {Schnitter, R and Berry, P}, title = {The Climate Change, Food Security and Human Health Nexus in Canada: A Framework to Protect Population Health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {14}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16142531}, pmid = {31315172}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate change impacts on the Canadian food system pose risks to human health. Little attention has been paid to the climate change, food security, and human health nexus, resulting in a number of knowledge gaps regarding food system components that are most vulnerable to climate change. The lack of understanding of key dynamics and possible future impacts challenges the ability of public health officials and partners in other sectors to prepare Canadians for future health risks. A series of literature reviews were conducted to establish the relationship between climate change, food security, and human health, and to identify vulnerabilities within the Canadian food system. Evidence suggests that key activities within the food system are vulnerable to climate change. The pathways in which climate change impacts travel through the food system and affect the critical dimensions of food security to influence human health outcomes are complex. Climate-related disruptions in the food system can indirectly impact human health by diminishing food security, which is a key determinant of health. Human health may also be directly affected by the physical effects of climate change on the food system, primarily related to the impacts on nutrition and foodborne illnesses. In this study, we propose a novel analytical framework to study and respond to the climate change, food security, and human health nexus. This work is intended to help public health officials, researchers, and relevant stakeholders investigate and understand current and future risks, and inform adaptation efforts to protect the health of Canadians.}, }
@article {pmid31314774, year = {2019}, author = {Crombé, P}, title = {Mesolithic projectile variability along the southern North Sea basin (NW Europe): Hunter-gatherer responses to repeated climate change at the beginning of the Holocene.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0219094}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0219094}, pmid = {31314774}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories.}, }
@article {pmid31310666, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, C and Harvey, JA and Biere, A and Gols, R}, title = {Rain downpours affect survival and development of insect herbivores: the specter of climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e02819}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2819}, pmid = {31310666}, issn = {1939-9170}, abstract = {Changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of rainfall events are among the abiotic effects predicted under anthropogenic global warming. Heavy downpours may profoundly affect the development and survival of small organisms such as insects. Here, we examined direct (physically on the insects) and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of simulated downpours on the performance of caterpillars of two lepidopteran herbivores (Plutella xylostella and Pieris brassicae) feeding on black mustard (Brassica nigra) plants. Host plants were exposed to different rainfall regimes both before and while caterpillars were feeding on the plants in an attempt to separate direct and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of rainfall on insect survival and development. In two independent experiments, downpours were simulated as a single long (20 min) or as three short (5 min) daily events. Downpours had a strong negative direct effect on the survival of P. xylostella, but not on that of P. brassicae. Direct effects of downpours consistently increased development time of both herbivore species, whereas effects on body mass depended on herbivore species and downpour frequency. Caterpillar disturbance by rain and recorded microclimatic cooling by 5°C may explain extended immature development. Indirect, plant-mediated effects of downpours on the herbivores were generally small, despite the fact that sugar concentrations were reduced and herbivore induction of secondary metabolites (glucosinolates) was enhanced in plants exposed to rain. Changes in the frequency of precipitation events due to climate change may impact the survival and development of insect herbivores differentially. Broader effects of downpours on insects and other arthropods up the food chain could seriously impair and disrupt trophic interactions, ultimately destabilizing communities.}, }
@article {pmid31310652, year = {2019}, author = {Correa-Lima, APA and Varassin, IG and Barve, N and Zwiener, VP}, title = {Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcz079}, pmid = {31310652}, issn = {1095-8290}, abstract = {BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS: Tropical plant species are already suffering the effects of climate change and projections warn of even greater changes in the following decades. Of particular concern are alterations in flowering phenology, given that it is considered a fitness trait, part of plant species ecological niche, with potential cascade effects in plant-pollinator interactions. The aim of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.<br><br>METHODS: We implemented ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of 62 hummingbird-pollinated plant species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Distribution models indicate future changes in the climatic suitability of their current habitats, suggesting a tendency towards discontinuity, reduction and spatial displacement. Flowering models indicate that climate can influence species phenology in different ways: some species may experience increased flowering suitability whereas others may suffer decreased suitability.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that hummingbird-pollinated species are prone to changes in their geographical distribution and flowering under different climate scenarios. Such variation may impact the community structure of ecological networks and reproductive success of tropical plants in the near future.}, }
@article {pmid31310430, year = {2019}, author = {Jakoby, O and Lischke, H and Wermelinger, B}, title = {Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus).}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14766}, pmid = {31310430}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Bundesamt für Umwelt/ ; //Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL/ ; }, abstract = {The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most important insect pest in Central European forests. Under climate change, its phenology is presumed to be changing and mass infestations becoming more likely. While several studies have investigated climate effects across a latitudinal gradient, it remains an open question how phenology will change depending on elevation and topology. Knowing how an altered climate is likely to affect bark beetle populations, particularly across diverse topographies and elevations, is essential for adaptive management. We developed a time-varying distributed delay model to predict the phenology of I. typographus. This approach has the particular advantage of capturing the variability within populations and thus representing its stage structure at any time. The model is applied for three regional climate change scenarios, A1B, A2 and RCP3PD, to the diverse topography of Switzerland, covering a large range of elevations, aspects and slopes. We found a strong negative relationship between voltinism and elevation. Under climate change, the model predicts an increasing number of generations over the whole elevational gradient, which will be more pronounced at low elevations. In contrast, the pre-shift in spring swarming is expected to be greater at higher elevations. In comparison, the general trend of faster beetle development on steep southern slopes is only of minor importance. Overall, the maximum elevation allowing a complete yearly generation will move upwards. Generally, the predicted increase in number of generations, earlier spring swarming, more aggregated swarming, together with a projected increase in drought and storm events, will result in a higher risk of mass infestations. This will increase the pressure on spruce stands particularly in the lowlands and require intensified management efforts. It calls for adapted long-term silvicultural strategies to mitigate the loss of ecosystem services such as timber production protection against rockfall and avalanches and carbon storage.}, }
@article {pmid31308901, year = {2019}, author = {Chakwizira, J}, title = {Rural transport and climate change in South Africa: Converting constraints into rural transport adaptation opportunities.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {718}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i3.718}, pmid = {31308901}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This study explored the implications of climate change for rural transport in South Africa. The article was seeking to convert existing rural transport adaptation constraints into rural transport adaptation opportunities. Challenges and constraints to rural transport adaptation transitions were also explored. The research methodology adopted was a review of the literature and references to case study examples. Then a four-stage multi-analytical approach was used to unravel and decode the major rural transport and climate change issues in South Africa. Consequent to the analysis, a framework of analysis for strongly integrating climate change to rural transport interventions was advanced. The findings indicated the existing rural transport adaptation measures and options in South Africa. The article concludes by highlighting the complexity and intricate dynamic nature of interactions, networks and systems that impact rural South Africa. Recommendations revolve around properly situating rural transport and climate change within the wider rural development challenges and matters facing contemporary South Africa.}, }
@article {pmid31308900, year = {2019}, author = {Nhamo, G and Agyepong, AO}, title = {Climate change adaptation and local government: Institutional complexities surrounding Cape Town's Day Zero.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {717}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i3.717}, pmid = {31308900}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {The challenges associated with climate change in local governments are growing daily. One such challenge is water security, an aspect that draws us to the subject matter of climate change adaptation. This article discusses findings about institutional complexities surrounding Day Zero, a concept associated with water taps running dry because of drought conditions as aggravated by climate change in the city of Cape Town, South Africa. The thrust on institutional complexities is deliberate, as this affects how crisis situations like Day Zero were handled. The data were generated mainly from the actor-actant-network theory, events study as well as document and discourse analysis methods. The actor-actant-network theory is used widely to trace how actors (humans) and actants (non-human phenomena) interact in space and time through their networks, following narratives like Day Zero, and act on climate-related matters. The analysis applied elements of grounded theory, resulting in categories and themes emerging for discussion. The article found that narratives surrounding Day Zero were embedded in both political and administrative dilemmas and red tape. Despite these challenges, the article concludes that Day Zero remains one of the landmark learning points for climate change adaptation and water security in Cape Town, South Africa, and in other cities across the world. The article recommends that Day Zero experiences continue to be embraced positively and documented further to enhance local government climate adaptation for water security currently and into the future as well.}, }
@article {pmid31308898, year = {2019}, author = {Shokane, AL}, title = {Social work assessment of climate change: Case of disasters in greater Tzaneen municipality.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {710}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i3.710}, pmid = {31308898}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate-change-induced disasters such as floods, heavy storms, tornadoes and extreme lightning are becoming more frequent in Africa generally and in South Africa specifically. Several factors contribute to Africa's high vulnerability to disasters, including the high rate of population growth, food insecurity, high levels of poverty, inappropriate use of natural resources and failures of policy and institutional frameworks. The study adopted an ecological systems theory as a theoretical framework to explain how social work in rural communities deals with climate-change-induced disasters. The aim was to explore and describe the role of social work in the assessment of climate change disaster predicaments. A qualitative approach, utilising an exploratory-descriptive design, was adopted for this study. A purposive sampling technique was used to select five social workers and two social auxiliary workers to participate in the study. Semi-structured interviews were applied in the research as a tool for data collection. Data were analysed qualitatively using thematic content analysis. The research concluded that social workers should intervene in climate-change-induced disasters by conducting assessments and providing disaster intervention strategies.}, }
@article {pmid31308890, year = {2019}, author = {Mhlanga-Ndlovu, BFN and Nhamo, G}, title = {Small-Scale Farmers Associations' adaptive capacity to climate change in Swaziland sugarcane industry.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {697}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i2.697}, pmid = {31308890}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This study investigated the existing adaptive capacity for climate change impacts by Small-Scale Famers Associations (SSFAs) in Swaziland's sugar industry. The analysis of adaptive capacity considered how the livelihood assets (natural, physical, financial, human and social) as discussed in the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) help promote SSFAs' adaptive capacity to climate change. The study took place in the Lowveld. Data were generated through a questionnaire from 45 SSFAs supervisors representing more than 2700 farmers. In addition, face-to-face interviews were undertaken with key informants, namely, Swaziland Water and Agricultural Development Enterprise, Swaziland Sugar Association, Ministry of Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Economic Planning and Development, and the United Nations Development Programme. The results indicate that the farmers have less adaptive capacity, and this affects the implementation of adaptation measures. The priority action towards increased adaptation includes interventions on credit, utility costs and taxes, land resources ownership and management, as well as information dissemination, especially early warning.}, }
@article {pmid31308881, year = {2019}, author = {Ncube, A and Tawodzera, M}, title = {Communities' perceptions of health hazards induced by climate change in Mount Darwin district, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {748}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.748}, pmid = {31308881}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change contributes toward many global challenges, such as increases in diseases in some communities, thereby accelerating health hazards to disasters. Establishing the extent to which local communities understand and perceive climate change and related health hazards is important for effective disaster risk management strategies. The objective of this study was to investigate communities' perceptions of health hazards induced by climate change in Mount Darwin district of Zimbabwe. This was in the light that besides the visible indications that climate is changing, the local people still perceive the climate change phenomenon as mystical or even a non-event. The study was situated within the social capital theory contextualised within the climate change, disaster management and the knowledge and perception realm constructed through social relationships, networks and interactions. A mixed-method research approach was used to assess the extent of knowledge and perceptions related to climate change and climate change-related health hazards. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to survey 204 participants from 10 wards in Mount Darwin, Zimbabwe. Respondents were purposively selected as they were mostly characterised by high vulnerability levels. While 38% of the respondents were not aware of climate change, 7% correctly identified climate change as caused by both natural and man-made forces. Most (89%) of the respondents stated that hazards occur mainly because of meteorological and hydrological causes. The study therefore recommended further education and awareness programmes to deepen community understanding of climate change. Despite the communities having some knowledge gaps and lacking an in-depth understanding of how climate change alters disease, there was some vital information within the Mount Darwin community that could have been used in local disaster risk management initiatives.}, }
@article {pmid31308877, year = {2019}, author = {Volenzo, TE and Odiyo, JO and Obiri, J}, title = {Greenhouse gas emissions as sustainability indicators in agricultural sectors' adaptation to climate change: Policy implications.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {576}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.576}, pmid = {31308877}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Effective adaptation action to climate change requires a balance between reducing vulnerabilities and managing risks. However, in most adaptation actions, risks such as greenhouse gas emissions, and those that impose negative externalities on global communities and ecosystems, are often overlooked. This article contextualises adaptation of maize stover (MS) as a dairy cattle feed among resource-poor farmers in western Kenya. In so doing, it attempts to establish the nexus between resource constraint and maladaptation to climate change. Simulation of methane emissions was carried out from secondary data and a survey of dairy cattle feeding strategies by resource-poor farmers. The level of greenhouse gas emissions in dairy feeding strategies is used as a measure and indicator of sustainability. Using disaster risk reduction principles, policymakers and community of practice in climate change action are encouraged to design and implement policies and strategies that take cognisance of poverty-maladaptation-environmental degradation nexus.}, }
@article {pmid31306868, year = {2019}, author = {Matias, RS and Gregory, S and Ceia, FR and Baeta, A and Seco, J and Rocha, MS and Fernandes, EM and Reis, RL and Silva, TH and Pereira, E and Piatkowski, U and Ramos, JA and Xavier, JC}, title = {Show your beaks and we tell you what you eat: Different ecology in sympatric Antarctic benthic octopods under a climate change context.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {150}, number = {}, pages = {104757}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.104757}, pmid = {31306868}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Sympatry can lead to higher competition under climate change and other environmental pressures, including in South Georgia, Antarctica, where the two most common octopod species, Adelieledone polymorpha and Pareledone turqueti, occur side by side. Since cephalopods are typically elusive animals, the ecology of both species is poorly known. As beaks of cephalopods are recurrently found in top predator's stomachs, we studied the feeding ecology of both octopods through the evaluation of niche overlapping and specific beak adaptations that both species present. A multidisciplinary approach combining carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) stable isotope signatures, mercury (Hg) analysis and biomaterials' engineering techniques was applied to investigate the beaks. An isotopic niche overlap of 95.6% was recorded for the juvenile stages of both octopod species, dropping to 19.2% for the adult stages. Both A. polymorpha and P. turqueti inhabit benthic ecosystems around South Georgia throughout their lifecycles (δ13C: -19.21 ± 1.87‰, mean ± SD for both species) but explore trophic niches partially different during adult life stages (δ15N: 7.01 ± 0.40‰, in A. polymorpha, and 7.84 ± 0.65‰, in P. turqueti). The beaks of A. polymorpha are less dense and significantly less stiff than in P. turqueti. Beaks showed lower mercury concentration relative to muscle (A. polymorpha - beaks: 0.052 ± 0.009 μg g-1, muscle: 0.322 ± 0.088 μg g-1; P. turqueti - beaks: 0.038 ± 0.009 μg g-1; muscle: 0.434 ± 0.128 μg g-1). Overall, both octopods exhibit similar habitats but different trophic niches, related to morphology/function of beaks. The high Hg concentrations in both octopods can have negative consequences on their top predators and may increase under the present climate change context.}, }
@article {pmid31306533, year = {2019}, author = {Destro, GFG and de Fernandes, V and de Andrade, AFA and De Marco, P and Terribile, LC}, title = {Back home? Uncertainties for returning seized animals to the source-areas under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14760}, pmid = {31306533}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Instituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renováveis/ ; //CNPq/ ; }, abstract = {Regardless of the economic, social and environmental impacts caused by wild animal trafficking worldwide, the suitable destination of seized specimens is one of the main challenges faced by environmental managers and authorities. In Brazil, returning seized animals to the wild has been the most frequent path in population restoration programs, and has been carried out, as a priority, in areas where the animals were captured. However, in addition to the difficulty in identifying the locations of illegal captures, little scientific knowledge is available on the future viability of the source-areas to global climate change. Thus, the current work aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the main source-municipalities for animal trafficking in Brazil, referred to herein as source-areas. For this, using ecological niche modeling, the environmental suitability of the source-areas for illegal animal captures was evaluated in two scenarios at two different time horizons: optimistic (RCP 26) and pessimistic (RCP 85) emission scenarios in both 2050 and 2070 projections. Moreover, the source-areas were compared with the Brazilian Federal protected areas, used here as the control group. According to the results, Brazilian source-municipalities are not always the best option for maintaining the most seized species in the future simulations, and, therefore, seem not be the best option for projects that aim for the return of these animals to the wild. In this sense, despite the genetic and ecological issues inherent in translocation projects, our results suggest that population restoration programs for seized species need to be rethought, and furthermore other suitable areas could be considered for truly ensuring the survival and maintenance of overexploited populations in the long term.}, }
@article {pmid31301499, year = {2019}, author = {Guo, L and Shan, N and Zhang, Y and Sun, F and Liu, W and Shi, Z and Zhang, Q}, title = {Separating the effects of climate change and human activity on water use efficiency over the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region of China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {690}, number = {}, pages = {584-595}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.067}, pmid = {31301499}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water use efficiency (WUE) is a central parameter for linking carbon and water exchange processes in terrestrial ecosystems. The Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (BTSSR) in China has undergone tremendous vegetation restoration and climate change. Understanding the WUE responses to climate change and human activity and their relative contributions to the trends and inter-annual variations (IAVs) in WUE is necessary to improve water use efficiency and strengthen water resource management. The evapotranspiration (ET) dataset based on the model tree ensemble (MTE) algorithm which was a machine learning approach using flux-tower ET measurements and the GLASS GPP dataset, as well as the variance decomposition method, were used to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in water use efficiency and inherent water use efficiency (IWUE) and the impacts of climate change and human activities. The results showed that the annual WUE and IWUE exhibited significantly increase in most regions of the BTSSR. The trend of human activity played the most important role in the increases of WUE and IWUE, with relative contributions of 88.2% and 85.9%, respectively, followed by the IAV of human activity for WUE (6.1%) and the trend of climate change (8.7%) for IWUE. The contribution of IAV to climate change was relatively small. Moreover, WUE and IWUE were all positively correlated with precipitation and temperature in most regions. Our results indicated that ecological restoration projects had significantly improved water use efficiency in BTSSR and may decrease the water burden in the BTSSR.}, }
@article {pmid31301449, year = {2019}, author = {Verheyen, J and Tüzün, N and Stoks, R}, title = {Using natural laboratories to study evolution to global warming: contrasting altitudinal, latitudinal, and urbanization gradients.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {10-19}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2019.06.001}, pmid = {31301449}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Demonstrating the likelihood of evolution in response to global warming is important, yet challenging. We discuss how three spatial thermal gradients (latitudinal, altitudinal, and urbanization) can be used as natural laboratories to inform about the gradual thermal evolution of populations by applying a space-for-time substitution (SFTS) approach. We compare thermal variables and confounding non-thermal abiotic variables, methodological approaches and evolutionary aspects associated with each type of gradient. On the basis of an overview of recent insect studies, we show that a key assumption of SFTS, local thermal adaptation along these gradients, is often but not always met, requiring explicit validation. To increase realism when applying SFTS, we highlight the importance of integrating daily temperature fluctuations, multiple stressors and multiple interacting species. Finally, comparative studies, especially across gradient types, are important to provide more robust inferences of evolution under gradual global warming. Integrating these research directions will further strengthen the still underused, yet powerful SFTS approach to infer gradual evolution under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid31297944, year = {2019}, author = {Fill, JM and Davis, CN and Crandall, RM}, title = {Climate change lengthens southeastern USA lightning-ignited fire seasons.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14727}, pmid = {31297944}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//University of Florida Foundation, Inc./ ; }, abstract = {Trends in average annual or seasonal precipitation are insufficient for detecting changes in the climatic fire season, especially in regions where the fire season is defined by wet-dry seasonal cycles and lightning activity. Using an extensive dataset (1897-2017) in the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, we examined changes in annual dry season length, total precipitation, and (since 1945) the seasonal distribution of thunder-days as a correlate of lightning activity. We found that across the entire region, the dry season has lengthened by as much as 156 days (130% over 120 years), both starting earlier and ending later with less total precipitation. Less rainfall over a longer dry season, with no change in seasonal thunderstorm patterns, likely increases both the potential for lightning-ignited wildfires and fire severity. Global climate change could be having a hitherto undetected influence on fire regimes by altering the synchrony of climatic seasonal parameters.}, }
@article {pmid31296193, year = {2019}, author = {Lee, JS and Farlow, A}, title = {The threat of climate change to non-dengue-endemic countries: increasing risk of dengue transmission potential using climate and non-climate datasets.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {934}, doi = {10.1186/s12889-019-7282-3}, pmid = {31296193}, issn = {1471-2458}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue is a major public health problem in the tropics and sub-tropics, but the disease is less known to non-dengue-endemic countries including in Northeast Asia. However, an unexpected dengue outbreak occurred in 2014 in Japan. Given that autochthonous (domestic) dengue cases had not been reported for the past 70 years in Japan, this outbreak was highly unusual and suggests that several environmental factors might have changed in a way that favors vector mosquitoes in the Northeast Asian region.<br><br>METHODS: A Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index, as validated in previous work, was constructed using climate and non-climate factors. This CRF index was compared to the number of reported dengue cases in Tokyo, Japan where the outbreak was observed in 2014. In order to identify high-risk areas, the CRF index was further estimated at the 5 km by 5 km resolution and mapped for Japan and South Korea.<br><br>RESULTS: The high-risk areas determined by the CRF index corresponded well to the provinces where a high number of autochthonous cases were reported during the outbreak in Japan. At the provincial-level, high-risk areas for dengue fever were the Eastern part of Tokyo and Kanakawa, the South-Eastern part of Saitama, and the North-Western part of Chiba. While a relatively small number of high-risk areas were identified in South Korea compared with Japan, the high-risk areas in South Korea include popular tourist destinations where international visitors have been increasing.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The recent dengue outbreak in Japan may signal that the two adjacent non-dengue-endemic countries are also exposed to the risk of temporal and sporadic behavior of dengue fever. It is critical to understand potential high-risk areas for future outbreaks and to set up appropriate prevention activities at the governmental-level.}, }
@article {pmid31293629, year = {2019}, author = {Jaffé, R and Veiga, JC and Pope, NS and Lanes, ÉCM and Carvalho, CS and Alves, R and Andrade, SCS and Arias, MC and Bonatti, V and Carvalho, AT and de Castro, MS and Contrera, FAL and Francoy, TM and Freitas, BM and Giannini, TC and Hrncir, M and Martins, CF and Oliveira, G and Saraiva, AM and Souza, BA and Imperatriz-Fonseca, VL}, title = {Landscape genomics to the rescue of a tropical bee threatened by habitat loss and climate change.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {1164-1177}, doi = {10.1111/eva.12794}, pmid = {31293629}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Habitat degradation and climate change are currently threatening wild pollinators, compromising their ability to provide pollination services to wild and cultivated plants. Landscape genomics offers powerful tools to assess the influence of landscape modifications on genetic diversity and functional connectivity, and to identify adaptations to local environmental conditions that could facilitate future bee survival. Here, we assessed range-wide patterns of genetic structure, genetic diversity, gene flow, and local adaptation in the stingless bee Melipona subnitida, a tropical pollinator of key biological and economic importance inhabiting one of the driest and hottest regions of South America. Our results reveal four genetic clusters across the species' full distribution range. All populations were found to be under a mutation-drift equilibrium, and genetic diversity was not influenced by the amount of reminiscent natural habitats. However, genetic relatedness was spatially autocorrelated and isolation by landscape resistance explained range-wide relatedness patterns better than isolation by geographic distance, contradicting earlier findings for stingless bees. Specifically, gene flow was enhanced by increased thermal stability, higher forest cover, lower elevations, and less corrugated terrains. Finally, we detected genomic signatures of adaptation to temperature, precipitation, and forest cover, spatially distributed in latitudinal and altitudinal patterns. Taken together, our findings shed important light on the life history of M. subnitida and highlight the role of regions with large thermal fluctuations, deforested areas, and mountain ranges as dispersal barriers. Conservation actions such as restricting long-distance colony transportation, preserving local adaptations, and improving the connectivity between highlands and lowlands are likely to assure future pollination services.}, }
@article {pmid31293131, year = {2019}, author = {Lauriola, P and Serafini, A and Santamaria, MG and Pegoraro, S and Romizi, F and Di Ciaula, A and Terzano, B and De Tommasi, F and Cordiano, V and Guicciardi, S and Bernardi, M and Leonardi, G and Romizi, R and Vinci, E and Bianchi, F}, title = {[Sentinel physicians for the environment and their role in connecting up global concerns due to climate change with local actions: thoughts and proposals].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {43}, number = {2-3}, pages = {129-130}, doi = {10.19191/EP19.2-3.P129.051}, pmid = {31293131}, issn = {1120-9763}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, }
@article {pmid31292461, year = {2019}, author = {Valdivia-Garcia, M and Weir, P and Graham, DW and Werner, D}, title = {Predicted Impact of Climate Change on Trihalomethanes Formation in Drinking Water Treatment.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {9967}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-46238-0}, pmid = {31292461}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {EP/G037094/1//RCUK | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)/ ; EP/G037094/1//RCUK | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)/ ; EP/G037094/1//RCUK | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)/ ; }, abstract = {Quantitative predictions of impacts on public water supplies are essential for planning climate change adaptations. Monitoring data from five full-scale Scottish drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) showed that significant correlations exist between conditionally carcinogenic trihalomethanes (THMs) levels, water temperature (r = 0.812, p = 0.0013) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) (r = 0.892, p < 0.0001), respectively. The strong seasonality of these parameters demonstrated how climate can influence THMs formation. We quantified with laboratory experiments the sensitivity of THMs formation to changes in water temperature and DOC concentration. The laboratory data accurately reproduced real-world THM formation in the DWTPs. We then combined these validated relationships with information from the literature about future trends in mean summer temperatures and surface water DOC in the British Isles, to estimate future global warming impacts on THMs formation in DWTPs that use chlorine for disinfection. An increase in mean summer temperatures will likely increase THM formation, with a 1.8 °C temperature increase and 39% THMs increase by 2050 representing our mid-range scenario. Such an increase has major implications to potable water around the world, either an increased health risk or increased water treatment costs to maintain an equivalent quality potable supply.}, }
@article {pmid31291388, year = {2019}, author = {Rosario, NA and D'Amato, G and Ansotegui, I}, title = {Global warming and warning.}, journal = {Clinics (Sao Paulo, Brazil)}, volume = {74}, number = {}, pages = {e1219}, doi = {10.6061/clinics/2019/e1219}, pmid = {31291388}, issn = {1980-5322}, }
@article {pmid31291367, year = {2019}, author = {Ferreira, MT and Cardoso, P and Borges, PAV and Gabriel, R and de Azevedo, EB and Elias, RB}, title = {Correction: Implications of climate change to the design of protected areas: The case study of small islands (Azores).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0219583}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0219583}, pmid = {31291367}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0218168.].}, }
@article {pmid31291297, year = {2019}, author = {Stennett-Brown, RK and Stephenson, TS and Taylor, MA}, title = {Caribbean climate change vulnerability: Lessons from an aggregate index approach.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0219250}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0219250}, pmid = {31291297}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The study examines the potential influence of sub-regional variations in climate, and specifically heavy rain events, in determining relative vulnerabilities of locations in twelve Caribbean countries. An aggregate vulnerability index, referred to as the Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS), is created using historical demographic and socioeconomic data and climate data representing extreme rain events. Four scenarios are explored. Firstly, comparative vulnerabilities are determined when heavy rainfall is incorporated in CVS versus when it is excluded. The impact of climate change is also investigated using future climate data derived from statistical downscaling but holding demographic and socioeconomic sub-indices constant. The analysis is repeated with projections of future demographic structure from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway data (SSP3), future climate projections and constant socioeconomic. Finally, the sensitivity of the results is examined with respect to applying different weights i.e. versus using equal weights for the climate and non-climatic components of CVS as is done for the first three scenarios. Results suggest that the inclusion of historical susceptibility to rainfall extremes influences relative vulnerabilities within the Caribbean when compared to the rankings of vulnerability derived using only socioeconomic and demographic inputs. In some cases significant increases in relative rankings are noted. Projected changes in the intensity of rain events across the Caribbean region in the 2030s and 2050s, do not significantly alter the top and lowest ranked vulnerable locations when demographic and socioeconomic indices are held constant. Changes may however occur in the order of the top ranked locations dependent on scenario and time slice. In general, future shifts in relative vulnerabilities were found to be dependent on (i) changes in both future climate and demographic scenarios, (ii) the time horizons being considered, and (iii) the weighting assigned to climate in the future.}, }
@article {pmid31291254, year = {2019}, author = {Hamilton, LC and Hartter, J and Bell, E}, title = {Generation gaps in US public opinion on renewable energy and climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0217608}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0217608}, pmid = {31291254}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The topics of climate change and renewable energy are often linked in policy discussions and scientific analysis, but public opinion on these topics exhibits both overlap and divergence. Although renewable energy has potentially broader acceptance than anthropogenic climate change, it can also face differently-based opposition. Analyses of US and regional surveys, including time series of repeated surveys in New Hampshire (2010-2018) and northeast Oregon (2011-2018), explore the social bases and trends of public views on both issues. Political divisions are prominent, although somewhat greater regarding climate change due to substantive differences and more partisan opposition. Regarding climate change and to a lesser extent renewable energy, political divisions tends to widen with education. There also are robust age and temporal effects: younger adults more often prioritize renewable energy development, and agree with scientists on the reality of anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Across all age groups and both regional series, support for renewable energy and recognition of ACC have been gradually rising. Contrary to widespread speculation, these trends have not visibly responded to events such as the US hurricanes of 2012, 2017 or 2018. Together with age-cohort replacement and the potential for changes in age-group voting participation, however, the gradual trends suggest that public pressure for action on these issues could grow.}, }
@article {pmid31291249, year = {2019}, author = {Bastin, JF and Clark, E and Elliott, T and Hart, S and van den Hoogen, J and Hordijk, I and Ma, H and Majumder, S and Manoli, G and Maschler, J and Mo, L and Routh, D and Yu, K and Zohner, CM and Crowther, TW}, title = {Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0217592}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0217592}, pmid = {31291249}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Combating climate change requires unified action across all sectors of society. However, this collective action is precluded by the 'consensus gap' between scientific knowledge and public opinion. Here, we test the extent to which the iconic cities around the world are likely to shift in response to climate change. By analyzing city pairs for 520 major cities of the world, we test if their climate in 2050 will resemble more closely to their own current climate conditions or to the current conditions of other cities in different bioclimatic regions. Even under an optimistic climate scenario (RCP 4.5), we found that 77% of future cities are very likely to experience a climate that is closer to that of another existing city than to its own current climate. In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities. As a general trend, we found that all the cities tend to shift towards the sub-tropics, with cities from the Northern hemisphere shifting to warmer conditions, on average ~1000 km south (velocity ~20 km.year-1), and cities from the tropics shifting to drier conditions. We notably predict that Madrid's climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech's climate today, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha. Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information. The global assessment of city analogues can facilitate the understanding of climate change at a global level but also help land managers and city planners to visualize the climate futures of their respective cities, which can facilitate effective decision-making in response to on-going climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31290606, year = {2019}, author = {Rosenbach, M}, title = {Climate change, dermatology, and the time for real action.}, journal = {Pediatric dermatology}, volume = {36}, number = {4}, pages = {567-568}, doi = {10.1111/pde.13892}, pmid = {31290606}, issn = {1525-1470}, }
@article {pmid31290364, year = {2019}, author = {Aguirre-Liguori, JA and Ramírez-Barahona, S and Tiffin, P and Eguiarte, LE}, title = {Climate change is predicted to disrupt patterns of local adaptation in wild and cultivated maize.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1906}, pages = {20190486}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2019.0486}, pmid = {31290364}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most important threats to biodiversity and crop sustainability. The impact of climate change is often evaluated on the basis of expected changes in species' geographical distributions. Genomic diversity, local adaptation, and migration are seldom integrated into future species projections. Here, we examine how climate change will impact populations of two wild relatives of maize, the teosintes Zea mays ssp. mexicana and Z. mays ssp. parviglumis. Despite high levels of genetic diversity within populations and widespread future habitat suitability, we predict that climate change will alter patterns of local adaptation and decrease migration probabilities in more than two-thirds of present-day teosinte populations. These alterations are geographically heterogeneous and suggest that the possible impacts of climate change will vary considerably among populations. The population-specific effects of climate change are also evident in maize landraces, suggesting that climate change may result in maize landraces becoming maladapted to the climates in which they are currently cultivated. The predicted alterations to habitat distribution, migration potential, and patterns of local adaptation in wild and cultivated maize raise a red flag for the future of populations. The heterogeneous nature of predicted populations' responses underscores that the selective impact of climate change may vary among populations and that this is affected by different processes, including past adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31289942, year = {2019}, author = {Qian, D and Cao, G and Du, Y and Li, Q and Guo, X}, title = {Impacts of climate change and human factors on land cover change in inland mountain protected areas: a case study of the Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve in China.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {8}, pages = {486}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-019-7619-5}, pmid = {31289942}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {Key Program: 41730752//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; General Program: 3177053//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; Chinese Academy of Sciences//Light of West China Program/ ; 2017-ZJ-Y20//Qinghai innovation platform construction project/ ; }, abstract = {Over the past few decades, natural reserves have been affected by both climate change and human activities, and their land cover has changed dramatically, especially in mountain reserves, which are more sensitive to climate change and human activities. This paper used long-term Landsat and MODIS NDVI remote sensing data to monitor the changes of land cover and vegetation conditions in the Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve (QMNNR) in China from 1975 to 2015, and analysed the impacts of climate change and human activities in combination with meteorological and socioeconomic data. The results show that the land cover structure of the QMNNR has remained stable over the past 40 years, but the total area of natural vegetation has decreased by 49.55 km2, the artificial surface and cropland has expanded by 13.68 and 32.57 km2 in some areas, respectively, and the glacier has retreated by 33.34 km2 as a whole. The warming and humidification trend of the climate is the leading factor for glacial retreat and the improvement of the overall vegetation condition, while population growth and economic benefits lead to the expansion of cropland and artificial surfaces in some areas, thus causing the reduction of 18.80 and 28.30 km2 in shrubland and grassland. This study proves that the system of protected areas plays a key role in maintaining the stability of the ecosystem structure and that reducing the population density around the protected areas and changing the mode of economic development can effectively reduce the intensity of human interference. Under the background of climate warming, the change of the ecosystem function in mountain protected areas is full of uncertainty, so management and protection strategies need to be studied in depth.}, }
@article {pmid31289937, year = {2020}, author = {Soon, TK and Zheng, H}, title = {Climate Change and Bivalve Mass Mortality in Temperate Regions.}, journal = {Reviews of environmental contamination and toxicology}, volume = {251}, number = {}, pages = {109-129}, doi = {10.1007/398_2019_31}, pmid = {31289937}, issn = {0179-5953}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture ; *Bivalvia ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {One of the fastest-growing global food sectors is the bivalve aquaculture industry. Bivalves particularly oysters, mussels and clams are important sources of animal protein (Tan and Ransangan 2016a, b). Bivalve aquaculture represents 14-16% of the average per capita animal protein for 1.5 billion people and supports over 200,000 livelihoods, mostly in developing countries (FAO 2018). Most of the bivalves produced around the world (89%) are from aquaculture (FAO 2016). To date, mollusc aquaculture have accounted for 21.42% (17.14 million tonnes) of the total aquaculture production, with Asia being the largest contributor (92.27%) (FAO 2018).}, }
@article {pmid31289770, year = {2019}, author = {Kreslake, JM}, title = {Perceived Importance of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation According to Social and Medical Factors Among Residents of Impacted Communities in the United States.}, journal = {Health equity}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {124-133}, doi = {10.1089/heq.2019.0002}, pmid = {31289770}, issn = {2473-1242}, abstract = {Purpose: To determine whether perceived importance of local climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts differs according to social or medical factors among residents of impacted communities. Methods: An online survey was conducted among residents of California (Los Angeles/Orange), Florida (Miami-Dade/Broward), and Arizona (Maricopa) counties in July 2018 (n=605). Multivariable ordered logistic regression measured associations between the perceived importance of adaptation/mitigation approaches and income, race/ethnicity, and health conditions, controlling for age, political party, and county. Results: Lower income was associated with higher perceived importance of improved emergency alerts, government-subsidized costs of household air conditioners and energy-efficient appliances, strengthening buildings against extreme weather, regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, urban planning using &quot;cooling&quot; technologies, and expanding community gardens/local agriculture. Black respondents perceived evacuation services for those with financial barriers during extreme weather, government-subsidized costs of energy-efficient appliances, and communication from government agencies about local climate impacts and mitigation as significantly more important compared to non-Black, non-Hispanic respondents. Hispanic respondents perceived significantly greater importance of improved emergency alerts and health care access during extreme weather, evacuation services for residents without transportation, government-subsidized costs of energy-efficient appliances, regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, communication from government agencies about local climate impacts and mitigation efforts, and intergovernmental cooperation on mitigation compared to non-Hispanic respondents. Conclusions: Perceptions of the importance of specific local climate actions differ according to race/ethnicity and income. Community engagement is recommended to help local decisions reflect priorities of the most affected residents.}, }
@article {pmid31289387, year = {2019}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Climate change made Europe's mega-heatwave five times more likely.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {571}, number = {7764}, pages = {155}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02071-z}, pmid = {31289387}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Europe ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Infrared Rays/*adverse effects ; *Models, Statistical ; *Models, Theoretical ; Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid31288795, year = {2019}, author = {Hotta, M and Tsuyama, I and Nakao, K and Ozeki, M and Higa, M and Kominami, Y and Hamada, T and Matsui, T and Yasuda, M and Tanaka, N}, title = {Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan's northern Alps.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {23}, doi = {10.1186/s12898-019-0238-8}, pmid = {31288795}, issn = {1472-6785}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica lives in the alpine zones of central Japan, which is the southern limit of the global distribution for this species. This species is highly dependent on alpine habitats, which are considered vulnerable to rapid climate change. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on potential L. muta japonica habitat based on predicted changes to alpine vegetation, to identify population vulnerability under future climatic conditions for conservation planning. We developed species distribution models, which considered the structure of the alpine ecosystem by incorporating spatial hierarchy on specific environmental factors to assess the potential habitats for L. muta japonica under current and future climates. We used 24 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2081-2100 as future climate conditions.<br><br>RESULTS: The predicted potential habitat for L. muta japonica was similar to the actual distribution of the territories in the study area of Japan's northern Alps (36.25-36.5°N, 137.5-137.7°E). Future potential habitat for L. muta japonica was projected to decrease to 0.4% of the current potential habitat in the median of occurrence probabilities under 24 GCMs, due to a decrease in alpine vegetation communities. Some potential habitats in the central and northwestern part of the study area were predicted to be sustained in the future, depending on the GCMs.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our model results predicted that the potential habitats for L. muta japonica in Japan's northern Alps, which provides core habitat for this subspecies, would be vulnerable by 2081-2100. Small sustainable habitats may serve as refugia, facilitating the survival of L. muta japonica populations under future climatic conditions. Impact assessment studies of the effect of climate change on L. muta japonica habitats at a nationwide scale are urgently required to establish effective conservation planning for this species, which includes identifying candidate areas for assisted migration as an adaptive strategy.}, }
@article {pmid31288110, year = {2019}, author = {Song, Y and Linderholm, HW and Wang, C and Tian, J and Huo, Z and Gao, P and Song, Y and Guo, A}, title = {The influence of excess precipitation on winter wheat under climate change in China from 1961 to 2017.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {690}, number = {}, pages = {189-196}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.367}, pmid = {31288110}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Winter wheat is one of China's most important staple food crops, and its growth and productivity are influenced by climate. Given its importance, we investigated the influence of excess precipitation under recent climate change on winter wheat in east-central China during 1961-2017. Although annual precipitation in the studied region decreased slightly, it increased during the winter wheat flowering and maturity period (May to June). Concurrently, the number of late growing season sunshine hours decreased. Our results showed that about 44% of the years with excess precipitation and less than normal radiation (16 years) were associated with decreasing winter wheat yields. Furthermore, during most years, precipitation of 50% above normal resulted in large decreases in winter wheat production in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, some of the wetter parts of the studied region. These results indicated that the grain yield variability of winter wheat was mainly influenced by excess precipitation in May, where precipitation could explain 70%-78% of yield variability in the wet parts. Moreover, excess precipitation can induce Fusarium head blight as well as wheat sprouting of pre-harvest, both affecting the grain quality of winter wheat. Projected increases in precipitation throughout the 21st century in the studied region, warrants further studies of how to maintain the winter wheat production in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid31287852, year = {2019}, author = {Asmamaw, M and Mereta, ST and Ambelu, A}, title = {Exploring households' resilience to climate change-induced shocks using Climate Resilience Index in Dinki watershed, central highlands of Ethiopia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0219393}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0219393}, pmid = {31287852}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {This study assessed households' resilience to climate change-induced shocks in Dinki watershed, northcentral highlands of Ethiopia. The data were collected through a cross-sectional survey conducted on 288 households, three focus group discussions, and 15 key informant interviews. The Climate Resilience Index (CRI) based on the three resilience capacities (absorptive, adaptive and transformative) frame was used to measure households' resilience to climate change-induced shocks on an agro-ecological unit of analysis. A principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple regression analysis were used to identify determinant factors and indicators to households' resilience, respectively. Findings indicate that the indexed scores of major components clearly differentiated the study communities in terms of their agro-ecological zones. Specifically, the absorptive capacity (0.495) was the leading contributing factor to resilience followed by adaptive (0.449) and transformative (0.387) capacities. Likewise, the Midland was relatively more resilient with a mean index value of 0.461. Both the PCA and multiple regression analysis indicated that access to and use of livelihood resources, such as farmlands and livestock holdings, diversity of income sources, infrastructure and social capital were determinants of households' resilience. In general, it might be due to their exposure to recurrent shocks coupled with limited adaptive capacities including underdeveloped public services, poor livelihood diversification practices, among others, the study communities showed minimal resilience capacity with a mean score of 0.44. Thus, in addition to short-term buffering strategies, intervention priority focusing on both adaptive and transformative capacities, particularly focusing on most vulnerable localities and constrained livelihood strategies, would contribute to ensuring long-term resilience in the study communities.}, }
@article {pmid31285999, year = {2019}, author = {Milner, J and Harpham, C and Taylor, J and Davies, M and Le Quéré, C and Haines, A and Wilkinson, P}, title = {The Challenge of Urban Heat Exposure under Climate Change: An Analysis of Cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) Database.}, journal = {Climate (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {93}, doi = {10.3390/cli5040093}, pmid = {31285999}, issn = {2225-1154}, support = {//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 103908//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The so far largely unabated emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to increase global temperatures substantially over this century. We quantify the patterns of increases for 246 globally-representative cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) database. We used an ensemble of 18 global climate models (GCMs) run under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario to estimate the increase in monthly mean temperatures by 2050 and 2100 based on 30-year averages. Model simulations were from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Annual mean temperature increases were 0.93 degrees Celsius by 2050 and 1.10 degrees Celsius by 2100 under RCP2.6, and 1.27 and 4.15 degrees Celsius under RCP8.5, but with substantial city-to-city variation. By 2100, under RCP2.6 no city exceeds an increase in Tmean > 2 degrees Celsius (relative to a 2017 baseline), while all do under RCP8.5, some with increases in Tmean close to, or even greater than, 7 degrees Celsius. The increases were greatest in cities of mid to high latitude, in humid temperate and dry climate regions, and with large seasonal variation in temperature. Cities are likely to experience large increases in hottest month mean temperatures under high GHG emissions trajectories, which will often present substantial challenges to adaptation and health protection.}, }
@article {pmid31285705, year = {2019}, author = {Germain, G and Simon, A and Arsenault, J and Baron, G and Bouchard, C and Chaumont, D and El Allaki, F and Kimpton, A and Lévesque, B and Massé, A and Mercier, M and Ogden, NH and Picard, I and Ravel, A and Rocheleau, JP and Soto, J and , }, title = {Quebec's Multi-Party Observatory on Zoonoses and Adaptation to Climate Change.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {143-148}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i05a05}, pmid = {31285705}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Climate change has been linked with the establishment and geographical expansion of zoonotic diseases, an example of which is the well-documented increase in human cases of Lyme disease in Quebec, Canada. As temperatures continue to increase in Quebec, it is anticipated that several zoonotic diseases will be affected. In response to the growing zoonotic issues facing public health authorities, Quebec's Multi-Party Observatory on Zoonoses and Adaptation to Climate Change (Observatoire multipartite québécois sur les zoonoses et l'adaptation aux changements climatiques) (the Observatory) was founded in 2015 as part of the Quebec government's Climate Change Action Plan (Plan d'action 2013-2020 sur les changements climatiques). The Observatory was designed to bring together agencies involved in formulating public policy and experts from the disciplines of human health, animal health and environmental sciences, in a manner similar to the innovative &quot;One World, One Health&quot; approach. The Observatory provides a platform for knowledge sharing and consensus building among representatives of public policy decision makers and scientists. Its main objectives are to anticipate and prioritize potential issues associated with zoonotic diseases in Quebec, in order to support applicable risk management and climate change adaptation. This article describes what the Observatory is, what it does and outlines its plans for the future.}, }
@article {pmid31285704, year = {2019}, author = {Kotchi, SO and Bouchard, C and Ludwig, A and Rees, EE and Brazeau, S}, title = {Using Earth observation images to inform risk assessment and mapping of climate change-related infectious diseases.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {133-142}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i05a04}, pmid = {31285704}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {The number of human cases of several climate-related infectious diseases, including tick- and mosquito-borne diseases, has increased in Canada and other parts of the world since the end of the last century. Predicting and mapping the risks associated with these diseases using environmental and climatic determinants derived from satellite images is an emerging method that can support research, surveillance, prevention and control activities and help to better assess the impacts of climate change in Canada. Earth observation images can be used to systematically monitor changes in the Earth's surface and atmosphere at different scales of time and space. These images can inform estimation and monitoring of environmental and climatic determinants, and thus disease prediction and risk mapping. The current array of Earth observation satellites provides access to a large quantity and variety of data. These data have different characteristics in terms of spatial, temporal and thematic precision and resolution. The objectives of this overview are to describe how Earth observation images may inform risk assessment and mapping of tick-borne and mosquito-borne diseases in Canada, their potential benefits and limitations, the implications and next steps.}, }
@article {pmid31285702, year = {2019}, author = {Rees, EE and Ng, V and Gachon, P and Mawudeku, A and McKenney, D and Pedlar, J and Yemshanov, D and Parmely, J and Knox, J}, title = {Risk assessment strategies for early detection and prediction of infectious disease outbreaks associated with climate change.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {119-126}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i05a02}, pmid = {31285702}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {A new generation of surveillance strategies is being developed to help detect emerging infections and to identify the increased risks of infectious disease outbreaks that are expected to occur with climate change. These surveillance strategies include event-based surveillance (EBS) systems and risk modelling. The EBS systems use open-source internet data, such as media reports, official reports, and social media (such as Twitter) to detect evidence of an emerging threat, and can be used in conjunction with conventional surveillance systems to enhance early warning of public health threats. More recently, EBS systems include artificial intelligence applications such machine learning and natural language processing to increase the speed, capacity and accuracy of filtering, classifying and analysing health-related internet data. Risk modelling uses statistical and mathematical methods to assess the severity of disease emergence and spread given factors about the host (e.g. number of reported cases), pathogen (e.g. pathogenicity) and environment (e.g. climate suitability for reservoir populations). The types of data in these models are expanding to include health-related information from open-source internet data and information on mobility patterns of humans and goods. This information is helping to identify susceptible populations and predict the pathways from which infections might spread into new areas and new countries. As a powerful addition to traditional surveillance strategies that identify what has already happened, it is anticipated that EBS systems and risk modelling will increasingly be used to inform public health actions to prevent, detect and mitigate the climate change increases in infectious diseases.}, }
@article {pmid31285701, year = {2019}, author = {Howard, C and Huston, P}, title = {The health effects of climate change: Know the risks and become part of the solutions.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {114-118}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i05a01}, pmid = {31285701}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Climate change presents a clear and present danger to human health. Health impacts are already being demonstrated in Canada, which is warming at roughly twice the global rate. A recent United Nations Environment Emissions Gap Report noted that if countries maintain current emission efforts, emissions will exceed the targets laid out in the Paris Agreement and global warming will exceed 2ºC worldwide. An important consequence of global warming is an increase in health risks. Much can be done to prevent and mitigate the health impacts of climate change, and understanding and communicating these has been shown to be one of the best ways of motivating action. This editorial provides an overview of the some of the global and national initiatives underway to decrease emissions, and address the health risks of climate change in general, and highlights some of the national initiatives underway to mitigate the increased risk of infectious diseases in Canada in particular.}, }
@article {pmid31285700, year = {2019}, author = {Smith, BA and Fazil, A}, title = {How will climate change impact microbial foodborne disease in Canada?.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {108-113}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i04a05}, pmid = {31285700}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Foodborne disease is a major concern in Canada and represents a significant climate change-related threat to public health. Climate variables, including temperature and precipitation patterns, extreme weather events and ocean warming and acidification, are known to exert significant, complicated and interrelated effects along the entire length of the food chain. Foodborne diseases are caused by a range of bacteria, fungi, parasites and viruses, and the prevalence of these diseases is modified by climate change through alterations in the abundance, growth, range and survival of many pathogens, as well as through alterations in human behaviours and in transmission factors such as wildlife vectors. As climate change continues and/or intensifies, it will increase the risk of an adverse effect on food safety in Canada ranging from increased public health burden to the emergence of risks not currently seen in our food chain. Clinical and public health practitioners need to be aware of the existing and emerging risks to respond accordingly.}, }
@article {pmid31285699, year = {2019}, author = {Ng, V and Rees, EE and Lindsay, LR and Drebot, MA and Brownstone, T and Sadeghieh, T and Khan, SU}, title = {Could exotic mosquito-borne diseases emerge in Canada with climate change?.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {98-107}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i04a04}, pmid = {31285699}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Of the 3,500 species of mosquitoes worldwide, only a small portion carry and transmit the mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) that cause approximately half a million deaths annually worldwide. The most common exotic MBDs, such as malaria and dengue, are not currently established in Canada, in part because of our relatively harsh climate; however, this situation could evolve with climate change. Mosquitoes native to Canada may become infected with new pathogens and move into new regions within Canada. In addition, new mosquito species may move into Canada from other countries, and these exotic species may bring exotic MBDs as well. With high levels of international travel, including to locations with exotic MBDs, there will be more travel-acquired cases of MBDs. With climate change, there is the potential for exotic mosquito populations to become established in Canada. There is already a small area of Canada where exotic Aedes mosquitoes have become established although, to date, there is no evidence that these carry any exotic (or already endemic) MBDs. The increased risks of spreading MBDs, or introducing exotic MBDs, will need a careful clinical and public health response. Clinicians will need to maintain a high level of awareness of current trends, to promote mosquito bite prevention strategies, and to know the laboratory tests needed for early detection and when to report laboratory results to public health. Public health efforts will need to focus on ongoing active surveillance, public and professional awareness and mosquito control. Canadians need to be aware of the risks of acquiring exotic MBDs while travelling abroad as well as the risk that they could serve as a potential route of introduction for exotic MBDs into Canada when they return home.}, }
@article {pmid31285698, year = {2019}, author = {Ludwig, A and Zheng, H and Vrbova, L and Drebot, MA and Iranpour, M and Lindsay, LR}, title = {Increased risk of endemic mosquito-borne diseases in Canada due to climate change.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {91-97}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i04a03}, pmid = {31285698}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {There are currently over 80 species of mosquito endemic in Canada-although only a few of these carry pathogens that can cause disease in humans. West Nile virus, Eastern equine encephalitis virus and the California serogroup viruses (including the Jamestown Canyon and snowshoe hare viruses) are mosquito-borne viruses that have been found to cause human infections in North America, including in Canada. Over the last 20 years, the incidence of most of these endemic mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) has increased approximately 10% in Canada, due in large part to climate change. It is anticipated that both the mosquito lifecycle and virus transmission patterns will be affected by climate change, resulting in an increase in both the range and local abundance of several important mosquito species. Laboratory studies and mathematical modelling suggest that increased ambient temperatures, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events associated with climate change will likely continue to drive mosquito vector and MBD range expansion, increasing the duration of transmission seasons and leading to MBD-related epidemics. Furthermore, Canada's endemic MBDs have complex transmission cycles, involving multiple reservoir hosts (birds and mammals), multiple pathogens and multiple mosquito species-all of which may be sensitive to climate and other environmental changes, and making forecasting of potential emerging trends difficult. These expected climate-induced changes in mosquitoes and MBDs underline the need for continued (and expanded) surveillance and research to ensure timely and accurate evaluation of the risks to the public health of Canadians.}, }
@article {pmid31285696, year = {2019}, author = {Ogden, NH and Gachon, P}, title = {Climate change and infectious diseases: What can we expect?.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {76-80}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i04a01}, pmid = {31285696}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Global climate change, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is being particularly felt in Canada, with warming generally greater than in the rest of the world. Continued warming will be accompanied by changes in precipitation, which will vary across the country and seasons, and by increasing climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change will likely drive the emergence of infectious diseases in Canada by northward spread from the United States and introduction from elsewhere in the world via air and sea transport. Diseases endemic to Canada are also likely to re-emerge. This special issue describes key infectious disease risks associated with climate change. These include emergence of tick-borne diseases in addition to Lyme disease, the possible introduction of exotic mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue, more epidemics of Canada-endemic vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus, and increased incidence of foodborne illnesses. Risk is likely to be compounded by an aging population affected by chronic diseases, which results in greater sensitivity to infectious diseases. Identifying emerging disease risks is essential to assess our vulnerability, and a starting point to identify where public health effort is required to reduce the vulnerability and exposure of the Canadian population.}, }
@article {pmid31285333, year = {2019}, author = {Goldberg, MH and van der Linden, S and Maibach, E and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Discussing global warming leads to greater acceptance of climate science.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {30}, pages = {14804-14805}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1906589116}, pmid = {31285333}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate change is an urgent global issue, with demands for personal, collective, and governmental action. Although a large body of research has investigated the influence of communication on public engagement with climate change, few studies have investigated the role of interpersonal discussion. Here we use panel data with 2 time points to investigate the role of climate conversations in shaping beliefs and feelings about global warming. We find evidence of reciprocal causality. That is, discussing global warming with friends and family leads people to learn influential facts, such as the scientific consensus that human-caused global warming is happening. In turn, stronger perceptions of scientific agreement increase beliefs that climate change is happening and human-caused, as well as worry about climate change. When assessing the reverse causal direction, we find that knowing the scientific consensus further leads to increases in global warming discussion. These findings suggest that climate conversations with friends and family enter people into a proclimate social feedback loop.}, }
@article {pmid31284196, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, RM}, title = {Mechanisms of soil organic carbon storage response to Spartina alterniflora invasion and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {690}, number = {}, pages = {7-15}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.472}, pmid = {31284196}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Coastal wetlands have been identified as vital global carbon (C) sinks; however, soil C sequestration in these ecosystems is susceptible to impacts of non-native species invasion and climate change worldwide. Although their potential impacts on soil organic C (SOC) storage have been reported in previous literature, the well-established mechanisms that control SOC storage response, especially in relation to soil depths, is still limited. To fill this knowledge gap, we developed a structural equation model (SEM) to identify mechanisms that account for SOC changes in topsoil (0-0.3 m) and subsoil (0.3-0.6 m) on coastal wetland of the East China Sea, where SOC in both depths increased with exotic Spartina alterniflora invasion. In the initial model, we hypothesized that there were a set of direct and indirect effects of the invasion, climate, and soil physicochemical properties on SOC storage. By evaluating the interactions of these factors, we found relatively complex patterns that vary with depth. For topsoil, the invasion had not only direct effects on SOC storage, but also indirect effects through mediating effects of soil water content (SWC) that was linked to fine soil fractions. For subsoil, the invasion was indirectly related to SOC storage through mediating effects of SOC in topsoil, SWC, and salinity. SOC in subsoil was also affected by temperature. Our results highlight that the response of SOC storage to the invasion and climate change results from the interacting effects of climate-plant-soil system.}, }
@article {pmid31279898, year = {2019}, author = {Wilke, ABB and Beier, JC and Benelli, G}, title = {Complexity of the relationship between global warming and urbanization - an obscure future for predicting increases in vector-borne infectious diseases.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2019.06.002}, pmid = {31279898}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Arthropod vectors are responsible for the transmission of many infectious diseases. Currently, more than three billion people living in endemic areas are exposed to vector-borne pathogens. Substantial differences in the biology of arthropod vectors make it extremely challenging to predict the incidence of vector-borne diseases in the future. However, global warming and urbanization both profoundly affect the ecology and distribution of arthropod vectors. Such processes often result in a biotic homogenization of species in a non-random process of biodiversity loss. The data presently available indicate a trend towards progressive increases in the presence and abundance of vectors capable of thriving in urban environments amongst humans, thus, increasing the contact between vectors and human hosts. As a consequence, we expect the incidence of vector-borne diseases to increase. In our opinion, resources should be made available and directed to strategies within the Integrated Vector Management framework, focusing on proven vector control tools. Besides, a substantial reduction of IVM costs would be achieved by observing environmental guidelines and providing basic sanitary infrastructure at early stages of its development. This could help to increase IVM effectiveness in attenuating social determinants of health and social inequities due to exposure to vectors.}, }
@article {pmid31276970, year = {2019}, author = {Libera, A and de Barros, FPJ and Faybishenko, B and Eddy-Dilek, C and Denham, M and Lipnikov, K and Moulton, D and Maco, B and Wainwright, H}, title = {Climate change impact on residual contaminants under sustainable remediation.}, journal = {Journal of contaminant hydrology}, volume = {226}, number = {}, pages = {103518}, doi = {10.1016/j.jconhyd.2019.103518}, pmid = {31276970}, issn = {1873-6009}, abstract = {This study investigates the potential impact of climate change on residual contaminants in vadose zones and groundwater. We assume that the effect of climate changes can be represented by perturbations in the natural recharge through the aquifer system. We perform numerical modeling of unsaturated/saturated flow and transport and consider different performance metrics: contaminant concentrations at observation wells and contaminant export at the site's boundary. We evaluate the effect of increasing and decreasing recharge as well as the impact of potential failure of surface capping structures employed to immobilize vadose zone contaminants. Our approach is demonstrated in a real case study by simulating transport of non-reactive radioactive tritium at the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site. Results show that recharge changes significantly affect well concentrations: after an initial slight dilution we identify a significant concentration increase at different observation wells some years after the recharge increase and/or the cap failure, as a consequence of contaminants' mobilization. This effect is generally emphasized and occurs earlier as the recharge increases. Under decreased aquifers' recharge the concentration could slightly increase for some years, due to a decrease of dilution, depending on the magnitude of the negative recharge shift. We identify trigger levels of recharge above which the concentration/export breakthrough curves and the time of exceedance of the Maximum Contaminant Level for tritium are remarkably affected. Moreover, we observe that the contaminant export at the control plane, identified as the risk pathway to the downgradient population, may only be minimally affected by shifts in the natural recharge regime, except for some extreme cases. We conclude that more frequent sampling and in-situ monitoring near the source zone should be adopted to better explain concentrations' anomalies under changing climatic conditions. Moreover, the maintenance of the cap is critical not only to sequester residual contaminants in the vadose zone, but also to reduce the uncertainty associated with future precipitation changes. Finally, realistic flow and transport simulations achieved through proper calibration processes, rather than conservative modeling, should be adopted to identify non-trivial trade-offs which enable better allocation of resources towards reducing uncertainty in decision making.}, }
@article {pmid31276080, year = {2019}, author = {Achakulwisut, P and Anenberg, SC and Neumann, JE and Penn, SL and Weiss, N and Crimmins, A and Fann, N and Martinich, J and Roman, H and Mickley, LJ}, title = {Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {127-144}, doi = {10.1029/2019GH000187}, pmid = {31276080}, issn = {2471-1403}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantify the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework. We first demonstrate that U.S. Southwest fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) dust levels are strongly sensitive to variability in the 2-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index across southwestern North America. We then estimate potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying the observed sensitivities to downscaled meteorological output projected by six climate models following an intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenario. By 2080-2099 under RCP8.5 relative to 1986-2005 in the U.S. Southwest: (1) Fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust-attributable all-cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 230% and 360%, respectively; (2) coarse dust levels could increase by 38%, and coarse dust-attributable cardiovascular mortality and asthma emergency department visits could increase by 210% and 88%, respectively; (3) climate-driven changes in dust concentrations can account for 34-47% of these health impacts, with the rest due to increases in population and baseline incidence rates; and (4) economic damages of the health impacts could total $47 billion per year additional to the 1986-2005 value of $13 billion per year. Compared to national-scale climate impacts projected for other U.S. sectors using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework, dust-related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature-related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss.}, }
@article {pmid31275184, year = {2019}, author = {Marshall, NA and Thiault, L and Beeden, A and Beeden, R and Benham, C and Curnock, MI and Diedrich, A and Gurney, GG and Jones, L and Marshall, PA and Nakamura, N and Pert, P}, title = {Our Environmental Value Orientations Influence How We Respond to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {938}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00938}, pmid = {31275184}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {People variably respond to global change in their beliefs, behaviors, and grief (associated with losses incurred). People that are less likely to believe in climate change, adopt pro-environmental behaviors, or report ecological grief are assumed to have different psycho-cultural orientations, and do not perceive changes in environmental condition or any impact upon themselves. We test these assumptions within the context of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), a region currently experiencing significant climate change impacts in the form of coral reef bleaching and increasingly severe cyclones. We develop knowledge of environmental cultural services with the Environmental Schwartz Value Survey (ESVS) into four human value orientations that can explain individuals' environmental beliefs and behaviors: biospheric (i.e., concern for environment), altruistic (i.e., concern for others, and intrinsic values), egoistic (i.e., concern for personal resources) and hedonic values (i.e., concern for pleasure, comfort, esthetic, and spirituality). Using face-to-face quantitative survey techniques, where 1,934 residents were asked to agree or disagree with a range of statements on a scale of 1-10, we investigate people's (i) environmental values and value orientations, (ii) perceptions of environmental condition, and (iii) perceptions of impact on self. We show how they relate to the following climate change responses; (i) beliefs at a global and local scale, (ii) participation in pro-environmental behaviors, and (iii) levels of grief associated with ecological change, as measured by respective single survey questions. Results suggest that biospheric and altruistic values influenced all climate change responses. Egoistic values were only influential on grief responses. Perception of environmental change was important in influencing beliefs and grief, and perceptions of impact on self were only important in influencing beliefs. These results suggest that environmental managers could use people's environmental value orientations to more effectively influence climate change responses toward environmental stewardship and sustainability. Communications that target or encourage altruism (through understanding and empathy), biospherism (through information on climate change impacts on the environment), and egoism (through emphasizing the benefits, health and wellbeing derived from a natural resource in good condition), could work.}, }
@article {pmid31273907, year = {2019}, author = {Cummins, D and Kennington, WJ and Rudin-Bitterli, T and Mitchell, NJ}, title = {A genome-wide search for local adaptation in a terrestrial-breeding frog reveals vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {9}, pages = {3151-3162}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14703}, pmid = {31273907}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Threatened Species Recovery Hub/ ; //University of Western Australia/ ; }, abstract = {Terrestrial-breeding amphibians are likely to be vulnerable to warming and drying climates, as their embryos require consistent moisture for successful development. Adaptation to environmental change will depend on sufficient genetic variation existing within or between connected populations. Here, we use Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) data to investigate genome-wide patterns in genetic diversity, gene flow and local adaptation in a terrestrial-breeding frog (Pseudophryne guentheri) subject to a rapidly drying climate and recent habitat fragmentation. The species was sampled across 12 central and range-edge populations (192 samples), and strong genetic structure was apparent, as were high inbreeding coefficients. Populations showed differences in genetic diversity, and one population lost significant genetic diversity in a decade. More than 500 SNP loci were putatively under directional selection, and 413 of these loci were correlated with environmental variables such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation and soil moisture. One locus showed homology to a gene involved in the activation of maturation in Xenopus oocytes, which may facilitate rapid development of embryos in drier climates. The low genetic diversity, strong population structuring and presence of local adaptation revealed in this study shows why management strategies such as targeted gene flow may be necessary to assist isolated populations to adapt to future climates.}, }
@article {pmid31270911, year = {2019}, author = {Nocco, MA and Smail, RA and Kucharik, CJ}, title = {Observation of irrigation-induced climate change in the Midwest United States.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14725}, pmid = {31270911}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellowship/ ; //University of Wisconsin Consortium for Extension and Research in Agriculture and Natural Resources/ ; //Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources/ ; //Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Graduate Fellowship Program/ ; //United States Department of Agriculture Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Program/ ; //Smith Family and Wisconsin Potato Industry Board Distinguished Graduate Fellowships/ ; //United States Environmental Protection Agency/ ; }, abstract = {Irrigated agriculture alters near-surface temperature and humidity, which may mask global climate change at the regional scale. However, observational studies of irrigation-induced climate change are lacking in temperate, humid regions throughout North America and Europe. Despite unknown climate impacts, irrigated agriculture is expanding in the Midwest United States, where unconfined aquifers provide groundwater to support crop production on coarse soils. This is the first study in the Midwest United States to observe and quantify differences in regional climate associated with irrigated agricultural conversion from forests and rainfed agriculture. To this end, we established a 60 km transect consisting of 28 stations across varying land uses and monitored surface air temperature and relative humidity for 31 months in the Wisconsin Central Sands region. We used a novel approach to quantify irrigated land use in both space and time with a database containing monthly groundwater withdrawal estimates by parcel for the state of Wisconsin. Irrigated agriculture decreased maximum temperatures and increased minimum temperatures, thus shrinking the diurnal temperature range (DTR) by an average of 3°C. Irrigated agriculture also decreased the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by an average of 0.10 kPa. Irrigated agriculture significantly decreased evaporative demand for 25% and 66% of study days compared to rainfed agriculture and forest, respectively. Differences in VPD across the land-use gradient were highest (0.21 kPa) during the peak of the growing season, while differences in DTR were comparable year-round. Interannual variability in temperature had greater impacts on differences in DTR and VPD across the land-use gradient than interannual variability in precipitation. These regional climate changes must be considered together with increased greenhouse gas emissions, changes to groundwater quality, and surface water degradation when evaluating the costs and benefits of groundwater-sourced irrigation expansion in the Midwest United States and similar regions around the world.}, }
@article {pmid31267598, year = {2019}, author = {Yazzie, JO and Fulé, PZ and Kim, YS and Sánchez Meador, A}, title = {Diné kinship as a framework for conserving native tree species in climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {29}, number = {6}, pages = {e01944}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1944}, pmid = {31267598}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {Climate change affects all ecosystems but despite increasing recognition for the needs to integrate Indigenous knowledge with modern climate science, the epistemological differences between the two make it challenging. In this study, we present how Indigenous belief and knowledge system can frame the application of a modeling tool (Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator). We focus on managing forest ecosystem services of the Diné (Navajo) Nation as a case study. Most Diné tribal members depend directly on the land for their livelihoods and cultural traditions. The forest plays a vital role in Diné livelihoods through social, cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic factors. We simulated forest dynamics over time under alternative climate change scenarios and management strategies to identify forest management strategies that will maintain future ecosystem services. We initialized the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator model with data from permanent plots and site-specific growth models under multiple management systems (no-management, thinning, burning, and assisted migration planting) and different climate scenarios (no-climate-change, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0). Projections of climate change show average losses of basal area by over 65% by 2105, a shift in tree species composition to drier-adapted species, and a decrease in species diversity. While substantial forest loss was inevitable under the warming climate scenarios, the modeling framework allowed us to evaluate the management treatments, including planting, for conserving multiple tree species in mixed conifer forests, thus providing an anchor for biodiversity. We presented the modeling results and management implications and discuss how they can complement Diné kinship concepts. Our approach is a useful step for framing modern science with Indigenous Knowledge and for developing improved strategies to sustain natural resources and livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid31267230, year = {2019}, author = {Mayes, S and Ho, WK and Chai, HH and Gao, X and Kundy, AC and Mateva, KI and Zahrulakmal, M and Hahiree, MKIM and Kendabie, P and Licea, LCS and Massawe, F and Mabhaudhi, T and Modi, AT and Berchie, JN and Amoah, S and Faloye, B and Abberton, M and Olaniyi, O and Azam-Ali, SN}, title = {Bambara groundnut: an exemplar underutilised legume for resilience under climate change.}, journal = {Planta}, volume = {250}, number = {3}, pages = {803-820}, doi = {10.1007/s00425-019-03191-6}, pmid = {31267230}, issn = {1432-2048}, support = {R3W26//international treaty for plant genetic resources for food and agriculture/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cooking/methods ; Crop Production/methods ; *Crops, Agricultural/genetics/growth &amp; development ; *Vigna/genetics/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {MAIN CONCLUSION: Bambara groundnut has the potential to be used to contribute more the climate change ready agriculture. The requirement for nitrogen fixing, stress tolerant legumes is clear, particularly in low input agriculture. However, ensuring that existing negative traits are tackled and demand is stimulated through the development of markets and products still represents a challenge to making greater use of this legume. World agriculture is currently based on very limited numbers of crops, representing a significant risk to food supplies, particularly in the face of climate change which is expected to increase the frequency of extreme events. Minor and underutilised crops can help to develop a more resilient and nutritionally dense future agriculture. Bambara groundnut [Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.[, as a drought resistant, nitrogen-fixing, legume has a role to play. However, as with most underutilised crops, there are significant gaps in knowledge and also negative traits such as 'hard-to-cook' and 'photoperiod sensitivity to pod filling' associated with the crop which future breeding programmes and processing methods need to tackle, to allow it to make a significant contribution to the well-being of future generations. The current review assesses these factors and also considers what are the next steps towards realising the potential of this crop.}, }
@article {pmid31266964, year = {2019}, author = {Lane, SN and Bakker, M and Costa, A and Girardclos, S and Loizeau, JL and Molnar, P and Silva, T and Stutenbecker, L and Schlunegger, F}, title = {Making stratigraphy in the Anthropocene: climate change impacts and economic conditions controlling the supply of sediment to Lake Geneva.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {8904}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-44914-9}, pmid = {31266964}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; CRSII2_147689//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&amp;#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; }, abstract = {The Anthropocene has been proposed as a profound, globally synchronous rupture in the history of the Earth System with its current state fundamentally different to that of the Holocene and driven by the geological force of human activity. Here, we show how stratigraphy is being made in a lake that is heavily impacted upon by climate change and human activities. For one of the largest inner-Alpine catchments in the European Alps, we draw attention to how sedimentation rates are a product of non-stationary, reflexive, human actions. In Lake Geneva, we identify both a human-induced climate change (HCC) signature and the effects of a recent economic shock on sediment extraction upon sediment loading to and sedimentation rates in the lake. The HCC signature thus reflects the nature of climate change impacts in this basin, where sediment accumulation rates evolve with climate, but where economic conditions contribute to shifts in the supply of sediment to the lake. Following social theory, we call this glocalization because of the combined importance and inseparability of human impacts across different spatial scales. The nature of human impacts on sediment delivery to the lake mean that the influence of humans is unlikely to be captured in the long-term depositional record.}, }
@article {pmid31266566, year = {2019}, author = {Chersich, MF and Swift, CP and Edelstein, I and Breetzke, G and Scorgie, F and Schutte, F and Wright, CY}, title = {Violence in hot weather: Will climate change exacerbate rates of violence in South Africa?.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {109}, number = {7}, pages = {447-449}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2019.v109i7.14134}, pmid = {31266566}, issn = {2078-5135}, }
@article {pmid31266553, year = {2019}, author = {Boeckmann, M and Roux, T and Robinson, M and Areal, A and Durusu, D and Wernecke, B and Manyuchi, A and Pham, MD and Wang, C and Hetem, R and Harden, L and Vargas, E and Wright, CY and Erasmus, BFN and Rees, H and Vogel, C and Wang, S and Black, V and Mabhikwa, M and Chersich Climate Change And Heat-Health Study Group, MF}, title = {Climate change and control of diarrhoeal diseases in South Africa: Priorities for action.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {109}, number = {6}, pages = {359-361}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2019.v109i6.14075}, pmid = {31266553}, issn = {2078-5135}, }
@article {pmid31265969, year = {2019}, author = {Díaz, J and López-Bueno, JA and Sáez, M and Mirón, IJ and Luna, MY and Sánchez-Martínez, G and Carmona, R and Barceló, MA and Linares, C}, title = {Will there be cold-related mortality in Spain over the 2021-2050 and 2051-2100 time horizons despite the increase in temperatures as a consequence of climate change?.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {176}, number = {}, pages = {108557}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.108557}, pmid = {31265969}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Global warming is resulting in an increase in temperatures which is set to become more marked by the end of the century and depends on the accelerating pace of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Yet even in this scenario, so-called &quot;cold waves&quot; will continue to be generated and have an impact on health.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: This study sought to analyse the impact of cold waves on daily mortality at a provincial level in Spain over the 2021-2050 and 2051-2100 time horizons under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, on the basis of two hypotheses: (1) that the cold-wave definition temperature (T threshold) would not vary over time; and, (2) that there would be a variation in T threshold.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: The results of a retrospective study undertaken for Spain as a whole across the period 2000-2009 enabled us to ascertain the cold-wave definition temperature at a provincial level and its impact on health, measured by reference to population attributable risk (PAR). The minimum daily temperatures projected for each provincial capital considering the above time horizons and emission scenarios were provided by the State Meteorological Agency. On the basis of the T threshold definition values and minimum daily temperatures projected for each province, we calculated the expected impact of low temperatures on mortality under the above two hypotheses. Keeping the PAR values constant, it was assumed that the mortality rate would vary in accordance with the available data.<br><br>RESULTS: If T threshold remained constant over the above time horizons under both emission scenarios, there would be no cold-related mortality. If T threshold were assumed to vary over time, however, then cold-related mortality would not disappear: it would instead remain practically constant over time and give rise to an estimated overall figure of around 250 deaths per year, equivalent to close on a quarter of Spain's current annual cold-related mortality and entailing a cost of approximately €1000 million per year.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Given that cold waves are not going to disappear and that their impact on mortality is far from negligible and is likely to remain so, public health prevention measures must be implemented to minimise these effects as far as possible.}, }
@article {pmid31263385, year = {2018}, author = {Deeb, R and Tufford, D and Scott, GI and Moore, JG and Dow, K}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Vibrio vulnificus Abundance and Exposure Risk.}, journal = {Estuaries and coasts : journal of the Estuarine Research Federation}, volume = {41}, number = {8}, pages = {2289-2303}, doi = {10.1007/s12237-018-0424-5}, pmid = {31263385}, issn = {1559-2723}, support = {P01 ES028942/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Vibrio species are marine bacteria that occur in estuaries worldwide; many are virulent human pathogens with high levels of antibiotic resistance. The average annual incidence of all Vibrio infections has increased by 41% between 1996 and 2005. V. vulnificus (Vv), a species associated with shellfish and occurring in the US Southeast, has ranges of temperature (16-33 °C) and salinity (5-20 ppt) dependencies for optimal growth. Increased water temperatures caused by atmospheric warming and increased salinity gradients caused by sea level rise raise concerns for the effect of climate change on the geographic range of Vv and the potential for increased exposure risk. This research combined monthly field sampling, laboratory analysis, and modeling to identify the current occurrence of Vv in the Winyah Bay estuary (South Carolina, USA) and assess the possible effects of climate change on future geographic range and exposure risk in the estuary. Vv concentrations ranged from 0 to 58 colony forming units (CFU)/mL, salinities ranged from 0 to 28 ppt, and temperature from 18 to 31 °C. A significant empirical relationship was found between Vv concentration and salinity and temperature that fit well with published optimal ranges for growth for these environmental parameters. These results, when coupled with an existing model of future specific conductance, indicated that sea level rise has a greater impact on exposure risk than temperature increases in the estuary. Risk increased by as much as four times compared to current conditions with the largest temporally widespread increase at the most upriver site where currently there is minimal risk.}, }
@article {pmid31263272, year = {2019}, author = {Salinitro, M and Alessandrini, A and Zappi, A and Tassoni, A}, title = {Impact of climate change and urban development on the flora of a southern European city: analysis of biodiversity change over a 120-year period.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {9464}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-46005-1}, pmid = {31263272}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Ecological studies in cities are not only aimed at investigating floristic diversity, but also represent informative test cases for understanding ecological system dynamics and responses to urban and climate changes since cities represent microcosms of environmental changes happening globally. The city of Bologna was selected as a case study since two specific and complete studies have been carried out in a 120-years timespan, one in 1894 and one in 2018. Since 1894, a large increase occurred in the number of taxa (families from 41 to 101, species from 176 to 477) and alien species (from 22 to 144), with a 65% total species turnover. The comparison of species life forms pointed out a noticeable recent expansion of phanerophytes and geophytes at the expense of therophytes and hemicryptophytes. The correlation between urbanistic features and plant richness indicated that the main factor affecting plant richness is the presence of green spaces (parks, tree lines, flowerbeds, etc.). Analysis of variation in Ellenberg's indicator values over the last 120 years evidenced a shift toward shade-tolerant species, mainly connected to the increased presence of parks and trees within the city. Climate change and the presence of artificially irrigated areas within the city has led to an increase in both hygrophilous and drought-resistant species. In particular, the temperature index showed a significantly higher amount of macrothermal species in accordance with a warmer climate and the urban heat island effect.}, }
@article {pmid31262729, year = {2019}, author = {Bamji, AN}, title = {Climate change: overpopulation and landscape manipulation.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {l4423}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l4423}, pmid = {31262729}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Population Density ; }, }
@article {pmid31262299, year = {2019}, author = {Vause, BJ and Morley, SA and Fonseca, VG and Jażdżewska, A and Ashton, GV and Barnes, DKA and Giebner, H and Clark, MS and Peck, LS}, title = {Spatial and temporal dynamics of Antarctic shallow soft-bottom benthic communities: ecological drivers under climate change.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {27}, doi = {10.1186/s12898-019-0244-x}, pmid = {31262299}, issn = {1472-6785}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Marine soft sediments are some of the most widespread habitats in the ocean, playing a vital role in global carbon cycling, but are amongst the least studied with regard to species composition and ecosystem functioning. This is particularly true of the Polar Regions, which are currently undergoing rapid climate change, the impacts of which are poorly understood. Compared to other latitudes, Polar sediment habitats also experience additional environmental drivers of strong seasonality and intense disturbance from iceberg scouring, which are major structural forces for hard substratum communities. This study compared sediment assemblages from two coves, near Rothera Point, Antarctic Peninsula, 67°S in order to understand the principal drivers of community structure, for the first time, evaluating composition across all size classes from mega- to micro-fauna.<br><br>RESULTS: Morpho-taxonomy identified 77 macrofaunal species with densities of 464-16,084 individuals m-2. eDNA metabarcoding of microfauna, in summer only, identified a higher diversity, 189 metazoan amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) using the 18S ribosomal RNA and 249 metazoan ASVs using the mitochondrial COI gene. Both techniques recorded a greater taxonomic diversity in South Cove than Hangar Cove, with differences in communities between the coves, although the main taxonomic drivers varied between techniques. Morphotaxonomy identified the main differences between coves as the mollusc, Altenaeum charcoti, the cnidarian Edwardsia sp. and the polychaetes from the family cirratulidae. Metabarcoding identified greater numbers of species of nematodes, crustaceans and Platyhelminthes in South Cove, but more bivalve species in Hangar Cove. There were no detectable differences in community composition, measured through morphotaxonomy, between seasons, years or due to iceberg disturbance.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study found that unlike hard substratum communities the diversity of Antarctic soft sediment communities is correlated with the same factors as other latitudes. Diversity was significantly correlated with grain size and organic content, not iceberg scour. The increase in glacial sediment input as glaciers melt, may therefore be more important than increased iceberg disturbance.}, }
@article {pmid31259746, year = {2019}, author = {Vega, A and Castro, L}, title = {Impact of climate change on insect-human interactions.}, journal = {Current opinion in allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {475-481}, doi = {10.1097/ACI.0000000000000565}, pmid = {31259746}, issn = {1473-6322}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To update the influence of the global climate change on Hymenoptera venom allergy.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change facilitates biological invasions of hymenopteran species and plays a role in the impact of introduced species relevant for human health. It contributes to a rise in the incidence of sting injuries and allergy reactions across the world.<br><br>SUMMARY: Global climate change has contributed to the expansion and the redistribution of allergenic insect species, increasing the number of allergy cases caused by stinging insects worldwide. Imported insects are trending species in systemic reactions for multiple stings or hymenopteran venom allergy. They represent a threat for humans and a challenge for the allergists.}, }
@article {pmid31258813, year = {2019}, author = {Flynn, M and Ford, JD and Labbé, J and Schrott, L and Tagalik, S}, title = {Evaluating the effectiveness of hazard mapping as climate change adaptation for community planning in degrading permafrost terrain.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {1041-1056}, doi = {10.1007/s11625-018-0614-x}, pmid = {31258813}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {Permafrost in northern Canada is susceptible to degradation due to rapid climate change, with hazard mapping promoted as an important activity to guide sustainable community adaptation and planning. This paper presents a framework for evaluating permafrost mapping exercises designed to inform climate change adaptation actions. We apply the framework using a case study of the Incorporating Climate Change into Land Development-Terrain Analysis project (ICCiLD). ICCiLD is a hazard mapping project utilizing interferometric synthetic aperture radar to monitor ground disturbance and categorize land development suitability in seven communities in the territory of Nunavut, Canada. We looked at one of the communities, Arviat, as our case study. We examined technical data and drew upon semi-structured interviews (n = 19) with map creators and users. We found ICCiLD added new and relevant information for community planning, increased awareness of the risks posed by permafrost thaw and built stakeholder relations. Strong coordination and high public consciousness of local climate impacts emerged as key factors underpinning project success. Nevertheless, in the case of Arviat, the effectiveness of the hazard maps in influencing land-use planning was constrained by communication challenges between project creators and end-users. These challenges included limited community access to the data and uncertainty surrounding how to operationalize the map suitability classifications. Broader climate change adaptation challenges included the presence of other more immediate community planning priorities and a limited ability to incorporate Indigenous ways of knowing into a technical mapping project. The lessons from this evaluation provide insight for the development of mapping-based adaptations across Arctic regions.}, }
@article {pmid31257600, year = {2019}, author = {Borghi, M and Perez de Souza, L and Yoshida, T and Fernie, AR}, title = {Flowers and climate change: a metabolic perspective.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.16031}, pmid = {31257600}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {//Max Planck Society/ ; }, abstract = {Adverse climatic conditions at the time of flowering severely hinder crop yields and threaten the interactions between plants and their pollinators. These features depend on a common trait: the metabolism of flowers. In this Viewpoint article, we aim to provide insight into the metabolic changes that occur in flowers in response to changes in climate and emphasize that these changes severely impact the fitness of autogamous and allogamous species, plant-pollinator interactions, and overall ecosystem health. We review the biochemical processes that lead to failure of gamete development and to alterations of color, scent and nectar secretion. Then, making use of open access expression data, we examine the expression of genes that may drive these changes in response to heat and drought. Finally, we present measurements of metabolites from flowers exposed to a heat wave and discuss how the results of this short-term experiment may give rise to misleading conclusions regarding the positive effect of heat on flower fitness. We hope this article draws attention to this often-neglected dynamic and its important consequences.}, }
@article {pmid31256418, year = {2019}, author = {Eisenach, C}, title = {How plants respond to climate change: A new Virtual Special Issue of Plant, Cell &amp; Environment.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {42}, number = {9}, pages = {2537-2539}, doi = {10.1111/pce.13604}, pmid = {31256418}, issn = {1365-3040}, }
@article {pmid31256407, year = {2019}, author = {Yu, TK and Chang, YJ and Chang, IC and Yu, TY}, title = {A pro-environmental behavior model for investigating the roles of social norm, risk perception, and place attachment on adaptation strategies of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {24}, pages = {25178-25189}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-05806-7}, pmid = {31256407}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Today's climate change is a major problem and challenge for the global environment and human civilization, and it can lead to dramatical floods over specific regions. As climate change intensifies, climate change adaptation strategies, such as flood insurance, energy taxes, and other risky financial strategies, have drawn worldwide attention and discussion. Risk control methods have been widely used to mitigate the impact of climate change on past flood losses, but past risk control strategies on climate change have not focused on the exploration of the relationship between environment, society, and humans. Based on the theoretical model of pro-environmental behavior, this study compares and analyzes four theoretical models and proposes a modified competitiveness model to effectively predict the pro-environmental behavior of college students with partial least squares (PLS) manner. Social norm could play a dominant role of mediator between risk perception, place attachment, and pro-environmental behavior. Although risk perception and local attachment are positively related to risk financial strategy, the promotion of social norms will increase the intention of risk financial strategy. For intention of risk financial strategies within pro-environmental behavior, the efficiency of enhancing local attachment was higher than that of risk perception.}, }
@article {pmid31255964, year = {2019}, author = {Yu, TK and Lin, FY and Kao, KY and Chao, CM and Yu, TY}, title = {An innovative environmental citizen behavior model: Recycling intention as climate change mitigation strategies.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {247}, number = {}, pages = {499-508}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.06.101}, pmid = {31255964}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change has been led to the increasing magnitude of frequency and severity of extreme weather, causing serious damage to overall economy of a country and individual economy of enterprises. Only relying on government subsidy to combat the impact of climate change, the work could be in vain. This study tries to use recycling action as mitigation strategies of climate change, and analyze the dominant influencing factors that affect recycling intention. This study stands in the perspective of green education in universities, regards the recycling intentions in response to climate change as pro-environmental behaviors, and revises and verifies the citizen pro-environmental behavior model. The green educations programs can communicate, promote, active and internalize the environmental citizenship through resource recycling intentions. Students learn about the importance of advocacy and activism to environmental citizenship, then generate environmentally sustainable and recycling intentions, and achieve the goal of improving the environment and mitigating to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31254865, year = {2019}, author = {O'Connor, D and Zheng, X and Hou, D and Shen, Z and Li, G and Miao, G and O'Connell, S and Guo, M}, title = {Phytoremediation: Climate change resilience and sustainability assessment at a coastal brownfield redevelopment.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {130}, number = {}, pages = {104945}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.104945}, pmid = {31254865}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {Phytoremediation offers a nature based solution (NBS) for contaminated soil remediation; however, its application under a brownfield redevelopment context has not been well studied. Moreover, climate change could impact large numbers of contaminated sites, yet there remains little research on the potential impacts for remediation. This study examined phytoremediation at a brownfield redevelopment in the San Francisco Bay area, where thousands of cleanup sites are vulnerable to rising sea levels. Life cycle assessment (LCA) was used to determine both primary and secondary impacts and the system's resilience to various sea level scenarios and hydroclimatic conditions was investigated. It was found that the phytoremediation project rendered only a small environmental footprint, and was associated with low cost and substantial socioeconomic benefits. For instance, it fitted well with the site redevelopment setting by offering attractive landscape features. Moreover, under a modeled moderate sea level rise scenario, the groundwater hydraulic gradient at the site decreased, which was coupled with greater natural biodegradation and reduced plume migration, and, therefore, lower life cycle impact. There was also minimal increase in the vapor intrusion risk with increased sea level. Overall, phytoremediation at the site was found to be resilient to a moderate sea level rise and other hydroclimatic effects induced by climate change. However, the system performance responded to increasing sea level rise in a non-linear manner. Under a high sea level rise scenario, the system is predicted to perform abruptly worse.}, }
@article {pmid31254636, year = {2019}, author = {Miller, LP and Dowd, WW}, title = {Repeatable patterns of small-scale spatial variation in intertidal mussel beds and their implications for responses to climate change.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {236}, number = {}, pages = {110516}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.06.016}, pmid = {31254636}, issn = {1531-4332}, abstract = {The interaction of ocean conditions and weather with small-scale physical features of a habitat can have profound effects on the experiences of individual organisms. On topographically complex shorelines, and particularly within dense aggregations of organisms such as mussel beds, a mosaic of environmental conditions can develop, and the resulting variation in conditions within the aggregation could drastically alter the performance of neighboring individuals. Using a suite of sensors mounted to individual Mytilus californianus mussels over two summer field deployments, we have characterized the temperature variation and valve gaping behavior differences found at two spatial scales: within a group separated by centimeters, and between groups of mussels located at the upper and lower extents of the natural mussel zone separated by meters. While temperature conditions near the lower edge of the mussel bed were generally more benign, temperature extremes were similar at both heights in the bed, and variation in body temperature among neighbors increased as the daily mean temperature increased. These patterns were similar across years despite a 3.8 °C difference in mean air and seawater temperatures between years. Gaping behavior was also highly variable among individuals, though that variability diminished at the high end of the mussel bed where the total time mussels spent submerged was much more constrained. These data indicate that an individual mussel's physiological status and past history can be drastically different than those of its nearby neighbors, complicating our ability to characterize representative conditions within a habitat. These observations also provide for the possibility that the impacts of future climate change will be highly specific to certain individuals based on their relative exposure or protection within the mosaic. To address such possibilities, future work must examine the correlation between genotypic and physiological traits that determine performance and individuals' unique experiences in their disparate micro-environments.}, }
@article {pmid31252133, year = {2019}, author = {Wijesiri, B and Liu, A and Hong, N and Zhu, P and Yang, B and Zhao, X and Goonetilleke, A}, title = {Rethinking hydrocarbons build-up on urban roads: A perspective on volatilisation under global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {252}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {950-959}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.06.044}, pmid = {31252133}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Stormwater is viewed as an alternative resource to mitigate water shortages. However, stormwater reuse is constrained due to the presence of many toxic pollutants such as hydrocarbons. Effective mitigation requires robust mathematical models for stormwater quality prediction based on an understanding of pollutant processes. However, the rise in global temperatures will impose changes to pollutant processes. This study has proposed a new perspective on modelling the build-up process of hydrocarbons, with a focus on volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Among organic compounds, VOCs are the most susceptible to changes as a result of global warming due to their volatility. Seven VOCs, namely, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, para-xylene, meta-xylene, ortho-xylene and styrene in road dust were investigated. The outcomes are expected to lay the foundation to overcoming the limitations in current modelling approaches such as not considering the influence of temperature and volatility, on the build-up process. A new conceptualisation is proposed for the classical build-up model by mathematically defining the volatility of VOCs in terms of temperature. Uncertainty in the re-conceptualised build-up model was quantified and was used to understand the build-up patterns in the future scenarios of global warming. Results indicated that for the likely scenarios, the variability in VOCs build-up gradually increases at the beginning of the dry period and then rapidly increases after around seven days, while the build-up reaches a near-constant value in a shorter dry period, limiting the variability. These initial research outcomes need to be further investigated given the expected impacts of global warming into the future.}, }
@article {pmid31250895, year = {2019}, author = {Levin, DA}, title = {Plant Speciation in the Age of Climate Change.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcz108}, pmid = {31250895}, issn = {1095-8290}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Species diversity is likely to undergo a sharp decline in the next century. Perhaps as many as 33% of all plant species may expire as a result of climate change (Pimm and Joppa, 2015; Ceballos et al. 2015). All parts of the globe will be impacted; and all groups of organisms will be affected. Hundreds of species throughout the world have already experienced local extinction.<br><br>PERSPECTIVES: While thousands of species may go extinct in the next century and beyond, species formation will still occur. I consider which modes of plant species formation are likely to prevail in the next 500 years. I argue that speciation primarily will involve mechanisms that produce reproductively isolated lineages within less (often much less) than 100 generations. I will not specially consider the human element in promoting species formation, because it will continue and because the conclusions presented here are unaffected by it. The impact of climate change may be much more severe and widespread.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The most common modes of speciation likely to be operative in the next 500 years ostensibly will be auto- and allopolyploidy. Polyploid species or the antecedents thereof can arise within two generations. Moreover, polyploids often have broader ecological tolerances, and are likely to be more invasive than are their diploid relatives. Polyploid species may themselves spawn additional higher level polyploids either through crosses with diploid species or between preexisting polyploids. The percentage of polyploid species is likely to exceed 50% within the next 500 years vs. 35% today. The stabilized hybrid derivatives (homoploid hybrid speciation) could emerge within a hundred generations after species contact, as could speciation involving chromosomal rearrangements (and perhaps number), but the number of such events is likely to be low. Speciation involving lineage splitting will be infrequent because the formation of substantive pre- and post-zygotic barriers typically takes many thousands of years.}, }
@article {pmid31249824, year = {2019}, author = {Liu-Helmersson, J and Brännström, Å and Sewe, MO and Semenza, JC and Rocklöv, J}, title = {Estimating Past, Present, and Future Trends in the Global Distribution and Abundance of the Arbovirus Vector Aedes aegypti Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {148}, doi = {10.3389/fpubh.2019.00148}, pmid = {31249824}, issn = {2296-2565}, abstract = {Background:Aedes aegypti is the principal vector for several important arbovirus diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika. While recent empirical research has attempted to identify the current global distribution of the vector, the seasonal, and longer-term dynamics of the mosquito in response to trends in climate, population, and economic development over the twentieth and the twenty-first century remains to be elucidated. Methods: In this study, we use a process-based mathematical model to estimate global vector distribution and abundance. The model is based on the lifecycle of the vector and its dependence on climate, and the model sensitivity to socio-economic development is tested. Model parameters were generally empirically based, and the model was calibrated to global databases and time series of occurrence and abundance records. Climate data on temperature and rainfall were taken from CRU TS3.25 (1901-2015) and five global circulation models (CMIP5; 2006-2099) forced by a high-end (RCP8.5) and a low-end (RCP2.6) emission scenario. Socio-economic data on global GDP and human population density were from ISIMIP (1950-2099). Findings: The change in the potential of global abundance in A. aegypti over the last century up to today is estimated to be an increase of 9.5% globally and a further increase of 20 or 30% by the end of this century under a low compared to a high carbon emission future, respectively. The largest increase has occurred in the last two decades, indicating a tipping point in climate-driven global abundance which will be stabilized at the earliest in the mid-twenty-first century. The realized abundance is estimated to be sensitive to socioeconomic development. Interpretation: Our data indicate that climate change mitigation, i.e., following the Paris Agreement, could considerably help in suppressing risks of increased abundance and emergence of A. aegypti globally in the second half of the twenty-first century.}, }
@article {pmid31249690, year = {2019}, author = {Morgan, R and Sundin, J and Finnøen, MH and Dresler, G and Vendrell, MM and Dey, A and Sarkar, K and Jutfelt, F}, title = {Are model organisms representative for climate change research? Testing thermal tolerance in wild and laboratory zebrafish populations.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coz036}, doi = {10.1093/conphys/coz036}, pmid = {31249690}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Model organisms can be useful for studying climate change impacts, but it is unclear whether domestication to laboratory conditions has altered their thermal tolerance and therefore how representative of wild populations they are. Zebrafish in the wild live in fluctuating thermal environments that potentially reach harmful temperatures. In the laboratory, zebrafish have gone through four decades of domestication and adaptation to stable optimal temperatures with few thermal extremes. If maintaining thermal tolerance is costly or if genetic traits promoting laboratory fitness at optimal temperature differ from genetic traits for high thermal tolerance, the thermal tolerance of laboratory zebrafish could be hypothesized to be lower than that of wild zebrafish. Furthermore, very little is known about the thermal environment of wild zebrafish and how close to their thermal limits they live. Here, we compared the acute upper thermal tolerance (critical thermal maxima; CTmax) of wild zebrafish measured on-site in West Bengal, India, to zebrafish at three laboratory acclimation/domestication levels: wild-caught, F1 generation wild-caught and domesticated laboratory AB-WT line. We found that in the wild, CTmax increased with increasing site temperature. Yet at the warmest site, zebrafish lived very close to their thermal limit, suggesting that they may currently encounter lethal temperatures. In the laboratory, acclimation temperature appeared to have a stronger effect on CTmax than it did in the wild. The fish in the wild also had a 0.85-1.01°C lower CTmax compared to all laboratory populations. This difference between laboratory-held and wild populations shows that environmental conditions can affect zebrafish's thermal tolerance. However, there was no difference in CTmax between the laboratory-held populations regardless of the domestication duration. This suggests that thermal tolerance is maintained during domestication and highlights that experiments using domesticated laboratory-reared model species can be appropriate for addressing certain questions on thermal tolerance and global warming impacts.}, }
@article {pmid31249081, year = {2019}, author = {Lawson, E}, title = {Debrief: Meeting the climate change challenge.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {69}, number = {684}, pages = {343}, doi = {10.3399/bjgp19X704333}, pmid = {31249081}, issn = {1478-5242}, }
@article {pmid31247003, year = {2019}, author = {Van der Fels-Klerx, HJ and Vermeulen, LC and Gavai, AK and Liu, C}, title = {Climate change impacts on aflatoxin B1 in maize and aflatoxin M1 in milk: A case study of maize grown in Eastern Europe and imported to the Netherlands.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218956}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218956}, pmid = {31247003}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Various models and datasets related to aflatoxins in the maize and dairy production chain have been developed and used but they have not yet been linked with each other. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on aflatoxin B1 production in maize and its consequences on aflatoxin M1 contamination in dairy cow's milk, using a full chain modelling approach. To this end, available models and input data were chained together in a modelling framework. As a case study, we focused on maize grown in Eastern Europe and imported to the Netherlands to be fed-as part of dairy cows' compound feed-to dairy cows in the Netherlands. Three different climate models, one aflatoxin B1 prediction model and five different carryover models were used. For this particular case study of East European maize, most of the calculations suggest an increase (up to 50%) of maximum mean aflatoxin M1 in milk by 2030, except for one climate (DMI) model suggesting a decrease. Results from all combinations of carryover and climate models suggest a similar or slight increase (up to 0.6%) of the chance of finding aflatoxin M1 in milk above the EC limit of 0.05 μg/kg by 2030. Results varied mainly with the climate model data and carryover model considered. The model framework infrastructure is flexible so that forecasting models for other mycotoxins or other food safety hazards as well as other production chains, together with necessary input databases, can easily be included as well. This modelling framework for the first time links datasets and models related to aflatoxin B1 in maize and related aflatoxin M1 the dairy production chain to obtain a unique predictive methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation. Such an integrated approach with scenario analysis provides possibilities for policy makers and risk managers to study the effects of changes in the beginning of the chain on the end product.}, }
@article {pmid31246980, year = {2019}, author = {Vahdati, K and Massah Bavani, AR and Khosh-Khui, M and Fakour, P and Sarikhani, S}, title = {Applying the AOGCM-AR5 models to the assessments of land suitability for walnut cultivation in response to climate change: A case study of Iran.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218725}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218725}, pmid = {31246980}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Due to higher temperatures and lower water availability, climate change is likely to have a major impact on walnut production in the near future. Climate change will alter the land suitability for walnut cultivation around the world, especially in arid and semi-arid regions like Iran. Here, land suitability for the cultivation of walnut (Juglans regia L.) in Iran was determined using the GIS for present and future conditions (2020-2049) with an approach to climate change. Accordingly, data from 375 synoptic stations throughout Iran were gathered for climatic factors including average, minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity and chilling requirement. Also, ASTER sensors (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) and their data provided this research with cells that make a precision of 150 m (5 s), and the data were used for gauging geological parameters such as altitude and land slope. The electrical conductivity (EC) of soil and water were informed by the data bank of the Iranian Water Resources Management. The results of temperature simulations for the future (2020-2049) were analyzed by 21 AOGCM-AR5 models under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. In the first phase of evaluations, the maps of land suitability were constructed for present conditions by considering a network of the above-mentioned parameters. By combining these layers of information, the final map of land suitability was illustrated for walnut cultivation. In the second phase, the NEX-GDDP was used in order to determine land suitability for the future (2020-2049). The results showed that Iran currently has 582844 km2 of land suitable for walnut cultivation. However, the future will see less suitable lands: the current area will be reduced by 6.19%, from 582844 km2 to 546710 km2. In general, the northern, northwestern and western margins of Iran are currently suitable for walnut cultivation. By approximation, these lands will also be major areas for prospective cultivations of walnut in the future (2020-2049), even though their current stretch will be reduced.}, }
@article {pmid31244082, year = {2019}, author = {Kalcic, MM and Muenich, RL and Basile, S and Steiner, AL and Kirchhoff, C and Scavia, D}, title = {Climate Change and Nutrient Loading in the Western Lake Erie Basin: Warming Can Counteract a Wetter Future.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {53}, number = {13}, pages = {7543-7550}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b01274}, pmid = {31244082}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {In the past 20 years, Lake Erie has experienced a resurgence of harmful algal blooms and hypoxia driven by increased nutrient loading from its agriculturally dominated watersheds. The increase in phosphorus loading, specifically the dissolved reactive portion, has been attributed to a combination of changing climate and agricultural management. While many management practices and strategies have been identified to reduce phosphorus loads, the impacts of future climate remain uncertain. This is particularly the case for the Great Lakes region because many global climate models do not accurately represent the land-lake interactions that govern regional climate. For this study, we used midcentury (2046-2065) climate projections from one global model and four regional dynamically downscaled models as drivers for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool configured for the Maumee River watershed, the source of almost 50% of Lake Erie's Western Basin phosphorus load. Our findings suggest that future warming may lead to less nutrient runoff due to increased evapotranspiration and decreased snowfall, despite projected moderate increases in intensity and overall amount of precipitation. Results highlight the benefits of considering multiple environmental drivers in determining the fate of nutrients in the environment and demonstrate a need to improve approaches for climate change assessment using watershed models.}, }
@article {pmid31243844, year = {2019}, author = {Eaton, MJ and Yurek, S and Haider, Z and Martin, J and Johnson, FA and Udell, BJ and Charkhgard, H and Kwon, C}, title = {Spatial conservation planning under uncertainty: adapting to climate change risks using modern portfolio theory.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e01962}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1962}, pmid = {31243844}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {Climate change and urban growth impact habitats, species, and ecosystem services. To buffer against global change, an established adaptation strategy is designing protected areas to increase representation and complementarity of biodiversity features. Uncertainty regarding the scale and magnitude of landscape change complicates reserve planning and exposes decision makers to the risk of failing to meet conservation goals. Conservation planning tends to treat risk as an absolute measure, ignoring the context of the management problem and risk preferences of stakeholders. Application of risk management theory to conservation emphasizes the diversification of a portfolio of assets, with the goal of reducing the impact of system volatility on investment return. We use principles of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which quantifies risk as the variance and correlation among assets, to formalize diversification as an explicit strategy for managing risk in climate-driven reserve design. We extend MPT to specify a framework that evaluates multiple conservation objectives, allows decision makers to balance management benefits and risk when preferences are contested or unknown, and includes additional decision options such as parcel divestment when evaluating candidate reserve designs. We apply an efficient search algorithm that optimizes portfolio design for large conservation problems and a game theoretic approach to evaluate portfolio trade-offs that satisfy decision makers with divergent benefit and risk tolerances, or when a single decision maker cannot resolve their own preferences. Evaluating several risk profiles for a case study in South Carolina, our results suggest that a reserve design may be somewhat robust to differences in risk attitude but that budgets will likely be important determinants of conservation planning strategies, particularly when divestment is considered a viable alternative. We identify a possible fiscal threshold where adequate resources allow protecting a sufficiently diverse portfolio of habitats such that the risk of failing to achieve conservation objectives is considerably lower. For a range of sea-level rise projections, conversion of habitat to open water (14-180%) and wetland loss (1-7%) are unable to be compensated under the current protected network. In contrast, optimal reserve design outcomes are predicted to ameliorate expected losses relative to current and future habitat protected under the existing conservation estate.}, }
@article {pmid31241909, year = {2019}, author = {Vione, D and Scozzaro, A}, title = {Photochemistry of Surface Fresh Waters in the Framework of Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {53}, number = {14}, pages = {7945-7963}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b00968}, pmid = {31241909}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Photochemical processes taking place in surface fresh waters play an important role in the transformation of biorecalcitrant pollutants and some natural compounds and in the inactivation of microorganisms. Such processes are divided into direct photolysis, where a molecule is transformed following sunlight absorption, and indirect photochemistry, where naturally occurring photosensitizers absorb sunlight and produce a range of transient species that can transform dissolved molecules (or inactivate microorganisms). Photochemistry is usually favored in thoroughly illuminated shallow waters, while the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) acts as a switch between different photochemical pathways (direct photolysis, and indirect photochemistry triggered by different transient species). Various phenomena connected with climate change (water browning, changing precipitations) may affect water DOC and water depth, with implications for the kinetics of photoreactions and the associated transformation pathways. The latter are important because they often produce peculiar intermediates, with particular health and environmental impacts. Further climate-induced effects with photochemical implications are shorter ice-cover seasons and enhanced duration of summer stratification in lakes, as well as changes in the flow velocity of rivers that affect the photodegradation time scale. This contribution aims at showing how the different climate-related phenomena can affect photoreactions and which approaches can be followed to quantitatively describe these variations.}, }
@article {pmid31239485, year = {2019}, author = {Vesely, FM and Paleari, L and Movedi, E and Bellocchi, G and Confalonieri, R}, title = {Quantifying Uncertainty Due to Stochastic Weather Generators in Climate Change Impact Studies.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {9258}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-45745-4}, pmid = {31239485}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change studies involve complex processes translating coarse climate change projections in locally meaningful terms. We analysed the behaviour of weather generators while downscaling precipitation and air temperature data. With multiple climate indices and alternative weather generators, we directly quantified the uncertainty associated with using weather generators when site specific downscaling is performed. We extracted the influence of weather generators on climate variability at local scale and the uncertainty that could affect impact assessment. For that, we first designed the downscaling experiments with three weather generators (CLIMAK, LARS-WG, WeaGETS) to interpret future projections. Then we assessed the impacts of estimated changes of precipitation and air temperature for a sample of 15 sites worldwide using a rice yield model and an extended set of climate metrics. We demonstrated that the choice of a weather generator in the downscaling process may have a higher impact on crop yield estimates than the climate scenario adopted. Should they be confirmed, these results would indicate that widely accepted outcomes of climate change studies using this downscaling technique need reconsideration.}, }
@article {pmid31239484, year = {2019}, author = {Ranasinghe, R and Wu, CS and Conallin, J and Duong, TM and Anthony, EJ}, title = {Disentangling the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on fluvial sediment supply to the coast by the world's large rivers: Pearl River Basin, China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {9236}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-45442-2}, pmid = {31239484}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The world's large rivers are under stress and experiencing unprecedented changes in hydrology, ecosystems, and fluvial sediment loads. Many of these rivers terminate at the great deltas of the world (home to 500 million people), which depend on fluvial sediments for their very existence. While fluvial sediment loads of large rivers have already been greatly modified by human activities, climate change is expected to further exacerbate the situation. But how does the effect of climate change on fluvial sediment loads compare with that of human impacts? Here, we address this question by combining historical observations and 21st century projections for one of the world's largest 25 rivers containing two mega dams; Pearl River, China. Our analysis shows that variations in fluvial sediment supply to the coast from the Pearl river over a ~150 year study period are dominated by human activities. Projected climate change driven 21st century increases in riverflow will only compensate for about 1% of the human induced deficit in sediment load, leading to the coastal zone being starved of about 6000 Mt of sediment over the remainder of this century. A similar dominance of human impacts on fluvial sediment supply is likely at other heavily engineered rivers.}, }
@article {pmid31237731, year = {2019}, author = {Kavousi, J}, title = {Biological interactions: The overlooked aspects of marine climate change refugia.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14743}, pmid = {31237731}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {This article emphasizes on biological interactions as an important overlooked criterion to better assess the chance of target marine species in potential refugia to survive climate change. It proposes future climate change refugia studies must consider the reciprocal interactions among climate change, biological factor, and conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid31236623, year = {2019}, author = {Garnier, M and Holman, I}, title = {Critical Review of Adaptation Measures to Reduce the Vulnerability of European Drinking Water Resources to the Pressures of Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {64}, number = {2}, pages = {138-153}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01184-5}, pmid = {31236623}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {One of the consequences of the generally agreed rise of global temperatures, furtherly exacerbated by the growth of water demand caused by the needs of a growing population, is an increase of areas with water stress. This will imply and in part is already implying, an always greater imbalance between water (and in particular drinking water) demand and supply. These issues are among those investigated by the &quot;Adapting Drinking Water resources to the Impacts of Climate change in Europe&quot; (ADWICE) project that had, among its main goals, the identification of priority adaptation measures aimed at reducing drinking water vulnerability to the pressures of a changing climate. In this paper these adaptation measures are described, with special attention given to their associated European water policy context. The complexity of designing and implementing such adaptation measures will benefit from integrating drinking water concerns with wider water management, within a framework able to facilitate the necessary complex collaborations between various actors involved in the different scales of the decision-making arena and to develop an effective science policy interfacing mechanism. Last, but not least, because drinking water is commonly considered by stakeholders and citizens to be a public service, drinking water managers should enable their involvement in the adaptation decision-making process, to ensure their acceptance and cooperation and to prevent conflicts.}, }
@article {pmid31236252, year = {2019}, author = {Ji, NN and Gao, C and Sandel, B and Zheng, Y and Chen, L and Wu, BW and Li, XC and Wang, YL and Lü, PP and Sun, X and Guo, LD}, title = {Late Quaternary climate change explains soil fungal community composition rather than fungal richness in forest ecosystems.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {6678-6692}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5247}, pmid = {31236252}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The dramatic climate fluctuations of the late Quaternary have influenced the diversity and composition of macroorganism communities, but how they structure belowground microbial communities is less well known. Fungi constitute an important component of soil microorganism communities. They play an important role in biodiversity maintenance, community assembly, and ecosystem functioning, and differ from many macroorganisms in many traits. Here, we examined soil fungal communities in Chinese temperate, subtropical, and tropic forests using Illumina MiSeq sequencing of the fungal ITS1 region. The relative effect of late Quaternary climate change and contemporary environment (plant, soil, current climate, and geographic distance) on the soil fungal community was analyzed. The richness of the total fungal community, along with saprotrophic, ectomycorrhizal (EM), and pathogenic fungal communities, was influenced primarily by the contemporary environment (plant and/or soil) but not by late Quaternary climate change. Late Quaternary climate change acted in concert with the contemporary environment to shape total, saprotrophic, EM, and pathogenic fungal community compositions and with a stronger effect in temperate forest than in tropic-subtropical forest ecosystems. Some contemporary environmental factors influencing total, saprotrophic, EM, and pathogenic fungal communities in temperate and tropic-subtropical forests were different. We demonstrate that late Quaternary climate change can help to explain current soil fungal community composition and argue that climatic legacies can help to predict soil fungal responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31236054, year = {2019}, author = {Shepherd, TG}, title = {Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information.}, journal = {Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {475}, number = {2225}, pages = {20190013}, doi = {10.1098/rspa.2019.0013}, pmid = {31236054}, issn = {1364-5021}, abstract = {Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about what has happened, and what will happen (conditional on scenario). The approach is effective for the global, thermodynamic aspects of climate change, but is ineffective when it comes to aspects of climate change related to atmospheric circulation, which are highly uncertain. Yet, atmospheric circulation strongly mediates climate impacts at the regional scale. In this way, the confidence framework, which focuses on avoiding type 1 errors (false alarms), raises the prospect of committing type 2 errors (missed warnings). This has ethical implications. At the regional scale, however, where information on climate change has to be combined with many other factors affecting vulnerability and exposure-most of which are highly uncertain-the societally relevant question is not 'What will happen?' but rather 'What is the impact of particular actions under an uncertain regional climate change?' This reframing of the question can cut the Gordian knot of regional climate change information, provided one distinguishes between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties-something that is generally not done in climate projections. It is argued that the storyline approach to climate change-the identification of physically self-consistent, plausible pathways-has the potential to accomplish precisely this.}, }
@article {pmid31235700, year = {2019}, author = {van Ruijven, BJ and De Cian, E and Sue Wing, I}, title = {Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {2762}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-10399-3}, pmid = {31235700}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {756194//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council)/International ; DE-SC0005171//DOE | SC | Biological and Environmental Research (BER)/International ; DE-SC0016162//DOE | SC | Biological and Environmental Research (BER)/International ; }, abstract = {Future energy demand is likely to increase due to climate change, but the magnitude depends on many interacting sources of uncertainty. We combine econometrically estimated responses of energy use to income, hot and cold days with future projections of spatial population and national income under five socioeconomic scenarios and temperature increases around 2050 for two emission scenarios simulated by 21 Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we show that, across 210 realizations of socioeconomic and climate scenarios, vigorous (moderate) warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation around 2050 by 25-58% (11-27%), on top of a factor 1.7-2.8 increase above present-day due to socioeconomic developments. We find broad agreement among ESMs that energy demand rises by more than 25% in the tropics and southern regions of the USA, Europe and China. Socioeconomic scenarios vary widely in the number of people in low-income countries exposed to increases in energy demand.}, }
@article {pmid31230387, year = {2019}, author = {Carvalho, SB and Torres, J and Tarroso, P and Velo-Antón, G}, title = {Genes on the edge: A framework to detect genetic diversity imperiled by climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14740}, pmid = {31230387}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {PTDC/BIA-BIC/3545/2014//European Regional Development Fund/ ; NORTE 2020//Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme/ ; CEECIND/01464/2017//Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia/ ; ICETA/EEC2018/16//Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia/ ; IF/01425/2014//Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia/ ; }, abstract = {Ongoing global warming is disrupting several ecological and evolutionary processes, spanning different levels of biological organization. Species are expected to shift their ranges as a response to climate change, with relevant implications to peripheral populations at the trailing and leading edges. Several studies have analyzed the exposure of species to climate change but few have explored exposure at the intraspecific level. We introduce a framework to forecast exposure to climate change at the intraspecific level. We build on existing methods by combining correlative species distribution models, a model of species range dynamics, and a model of phylogeographic interpolation. We demonstrate the framework by applying it to 20 Iberian amphibian and reptile species. Our aims were to: (a) identify which species and intraspecific lineages will be most exposed to future climate change; (b) test if nucleotide diversity at the edges of species ranges are significantly higher or lower than on the overall range; and (c) analyze if areas of higher species gain, loss, and turnover coincide with those predicted for lineages richness and nucleotide diversity. We found that about 80% of the studied species are predicted to contract their range. Within each species, some lineages were predicted to contract their range, while others were predicted to maintain or expand it. Therefore, estimating the impacts of climate change at the species level only can underestimate losses at the intraspecific level. Some species had significant high amount of nucleotide at the trailing or leading edge, or both, but we did not find a consistent pattern across species. Spatial patterns of species richness, gain, loss, and turnover were fairly concurrent with lineages richness and nucleotide diversity. Our results support the need for increased attention to intraspecific diversity regarding monitoring and conservation strategies under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31228060, year = {2019}, author = {Khafaie, MA and Sayyah, M and Rahim, F}, title = {Extreme pollution, climate change, and depression.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {22}, pages = {22103-22105}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-05727-5}, pmid = {31228060}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid31228014, year = {2019}, author = {Lewandowsky, S and Cook, J and Fay, N and Gignac, GE}, title = {Science by social media: Attitudes towards climate change are mediated by perceived social consensus.}, journal = {Memory &amp; cognition}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3758/s13421-019-00948-y}, pmid = {31228014}, issn = {1532-5946}, abstract = {Internet blogs have become an important platform for the discussion of many scientific issues, including climate change. Blogs, and in particular the comment sections of blogs, also play a major role in the dissemination of contrarian positions that question mainstream climate science. The effect of this content on people's attitudes is not fully understood. In particular, it is unknown how the interaction between the content of blog posts and blog comments affects readers' attitudes. We report an experiment that orthogonally varied those two variables using blog posts and comments that either did, or did not, support the scientific consensus on climate change. We find that beliefs are partially shaped by readers' perception of how widely an opinion expressed in a blog post appears to be shared by other readers. The perceived social consensus among readers, in turn, is determined by whether blog comments endorse or reject the contents of a post. When comments reject the content, perceived reader consensus is lower than when comments endorse the content. The results underscore the importance of perceived social consensus on opinion formation.}, }
@article {pmid31227948, year = {2019}, author = {Zhu, W and Yao, N and Guo, Q and Wang, F}, title = {Public risk perception and willingness to mitigate climate change: city smog as an example.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s10653-019-00355-x}, pmid = {31227948}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {17CGL046//National Social Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change harms people's health and ecosystems. Encouraging the public to adopt behaviors that help to combat climate change can, at the same time, contribute to efforts to control and solve related serious environmental problems. This study aims to ascertain the way in which the public perceives risks related to climate change and adopts behaviors to respond to the issue. Using city smog as an example, this study proposes a conceptual model that integrates the theory of planned behavior (TPB), smog knowledge and risk perception. It aims to elucidate determinants of smog-reduction behavior. Data were obtained through questionnaire surveys. The results confirm the relationships among the core variables of the TPB and risk perception. Firstly, they confirm that TPB is an effective model for predicting responses to city smog, and secondly, they show that risk perception is significantly positive in predicting attitude and behavioral intention. In addition, our analysis confirms that knowledge about smog is a positive antecedent variable in risk perception, attitude, and perceived behavioral control. The paper contributes to the extension of the TPB model and to the enrichment of its application in the context of city smog. It also has practical implications both for people experiencing city smog, and for authorities such as local governments and environmental organizations. Governments and organizations need to make efforts to spread information concerning the harmful effects of city smog, because in doing so they can strengthen people's intention to participate in smog-reduction behavior.}, }
@article {pmid31226560, year = {2019}, author = {Lienhardt, T and Black, K and Saget, S and Costa, MP and Chadwick, D and Rees, RM and Williams, M and Spillane, C and Iannetta, PM and Walker, G and Styles, D}, title = {Just the tonic! Legume biorefining for alcohol has the potential to reduce Europe's protein deficit and mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {130}, number = {}, pages = {104870}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.05.064}, pmid = {31226560}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {Industrialised agriculture is heavily reliant upon synthetic nitrogen fertilisers and imported protein feeds, posing environmental and food security challenges. Increasing the cultivation of leguminous crops that biologically fix nitrogen and provide high protein feed and food could help to address these challenges. We report on the innovative use of an important leguminous crop, pea (Pisum sativum L.), as a source of starch for alcohol (gin) production, yielding protein-rich animal feed as a co-product. We undertook life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the environmental footprint of 1 L of packaged gin produced from either 1.43 kg of wheat grain or 2.42 kg of peas via fermentation and distillation into neutral spirit. Allocated environmental footprints for pea-gin were smaller than for wheat-gin across 12 of 14 environmental impact categories considered. Global warming, resource depletion, human toxicity, acidification and terrestrial eutrophication footprints were, respectively, 12%, 15%, 15%, 48% and 68% smaller, but direct land occupation was 112% greater, for pea-gin versus wheat-gin. Expansion of LCA boundaries indicated that co-products arising from the production of 1 L of wheat- or pea-gin could substitute up to 0.33 or 0.66 kg soybean animal feed, respectively, mitigating considerable greenhouse gas emissions associated with land clearing, cultivation, processing and transport of such feed. For pea-gin, this mitigation effect exceeds emissions from gin production and packaging, so that each L of bottled pea gin avoids 2.2 kg CO2 eq. There is great potential to scale the use of legume starches in production of alcoholic beverages and biofuels, reducing dependence on Latin American soybean associated with deforestation and offering considerable global mitigation potential in terms of climate change and nutrient leakage - estimated at circa 439 Tg CO2 eq. and 8.45 Tg N eq. annually.}, }
@article {pmid31222177, year = {2019}, author = {Montero, N and Tomillo, PS and Saba, VS and Dei Marcovaldi, MAG and López-Mendilaharsu, M and Santos, AS and Fuentes, MMPB}, title = {Effects of local climate on loggerhead hatchling production in Brazil: Implications from climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {8861}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-45366-x}, pmid = {31222177}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Sea turtle eggs are heavily influenced by the environment in which they incubate, including effects on hatching success and hatchling viability (hatchling production). It is crucial to understand how the hatchling production of sea turtles is influenced by local climate and how potential changes in climate may impact future hatchling production. Generalized Additive Models were used to determine the relationship of six climatic variables at different temporal scales on loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) hatchling production at seventeen nesting beaches in Bahia, Espirito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Using extreme and conservative climate change scenarios throughout the 21st century, potential impacts on future hatching success (the number of hatched eggs in a nest) were predicted using the climatic variable(s) that best described hatchling production at each nesting beach. Air temperature and precipitation were found to be the main drivers of hatchling production throughout Brazil. CMIP5 climate projections are for a warming of air temperature at all sites throughout the 21st century, while projections for precipitation vary regionally. The more tropical nesting beaches in Brazil, such as those in Bahia, are projected to experience declines in hatchling production, while the more temperate nesting beaches, such as those in Rio de Janeiro, are projected to experience increases in hatchling production by the end of the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid31221380, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, H and Huo, S and Yeager, KM and Li, C and Xi, B and Zhang, J and He, Z and Ma, C}, title = {Apparent relationships between anthropogenic factors and climate change indicators and POPs deposition in a lacustrine system.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {83}, number = {}, pages = {174-182}, doi = {10.1016/j.jes.2019.03.024}, pmid = {31221380}, issn = {1001-0742}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; DDT ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Geologic Sediments ; Hydrocarbons, Chlorinated/analysis ; Lakes ; Polychlorinated Biphenyls/analysis ; Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/analysis ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change and anthropogenic activities are expected to impact the environmental behaviors and fates of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), however, quantitative studies on these combined factors are scarce. In this study, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDTs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were used as examples to identify how and when those factors may be related to the deposition of POPs in the sediment of Lake Chaohu, China, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Three historical trends of DDT, PAH, and PCB deposition were delineated in a dated sediment core encompassing ~100 years of historical record: a steady state or gradually increasing stage, a rapidly increasing stage, and a declining stage. The GAM results showed that aquatic total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and regional GDP (anthropogenic factors) were dominant contributors to POP accumulation rates in the lake sediment. The fitted relationships between air temperature and sedimentary DDT and PAH concentrations were linear and negative, while a positive linear relationship was found for PCBs, suggesting that Lake Chaohu may have become a net source for DDTs and PAHs, and a sink for PCBs, under a progressively warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid31220731, year = {2019}, author = {Augustynczik, ALD and Yousefpour, R and Hanewinkel, M}, title = {Climate change and the provision of biodiversity in public temperate forests - A mechanism design approach for the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {246}, number = {}, pages = {706-716}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.05.089}, pmid = {31220731}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The provision of forest biodiversity remains a major challenge in the management of forest resources. Biodiversity is mostly considered a public good and the fact that societal benefits from biodiversity are private information, hinders its supply at adequate levels. Here we investigate how the government, as a forest owner, may increase the biodiversity supply in publicly-owned forests. We employ a mechanism design approach to find the biodiversity provision choices, which take into account agents' strategic behavior and values towards biodiversity. We applied our framework to a forest landscape in Southwestern Germany, using forest birds as biodiversity indicators and evaluating the impacts of climate change on forest dynamics and on the costs of biodiversity provision. Our results show that climate change has important implications to the opportunity cost of biodiversity and the provision levels (ranging from 10 to 12.5% increase of the bird indicator abundance). In general, biodiversity valuations needed to surpass the opportunity cost by more than 18% to cope with the private information held by the agents. Moreover, higher costs under more intense climate change (e.g. Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) reduced the attainable bird abundance increase from 12.5 to 10%. We conclude that mechanism design may provide key information for planning conservation policies and identify conditions for a successful implementation of biodiversity-oriented forest management.}, }
@article {pmid31220712, year = {2019}, author = {Adeloye, AJ and Dau, QV}, title = {Hedging as an adaptive measure for climate change induced water shortage at the Pong reservoir in the Indus Basin Beas River, India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {687}, number = {}, pages = {554-566}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.021}, pmid = {31220712}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study investigated the adaptive capacity of static and dynamic hedging operating policies to shore up the performance, i.e. reliability and vulnerability, in irrigation water supply of Pong reservoir in India, during climate change. The policies were developed using genetic algorithm optimisation and used to force reservoir simulations for different climate change perturbed inflow series, whence derive the performance. For static hedging, the hedging fraction remains constant throughout the year while for dynamic hedging, this fraction varies monthly or seasonally. Results showed that static hedging was effective at tempering the systems vulnerability from its high of ≥60% to lower than 25%, while maintaining an acceptable volume-based reliability. Further simulations with dynamic hedging provided only modest improvements in these two indices. The significance of this study is its demonstration of the effectiveness of hedging as a climate change adaptation measure by limiting water shortage impacts. It also demonstrates that simple static hedging can match more complex dynamic hedging policies.}, }
@article {pmid31220193, year = {2019}, author = {Kosaka, T and Nakajima, Y and Ishii, A and Yamashita, M and Yoshida, S and Murata, M and Kato, K and Shiromaru, Y and Kato, S and Kanesaki, Y and Yoshikawa, H and Matsutani, M and Thanonkeo, P and Yamada, M}, title = {Correction: Capacity for survival in global warming: Adaptation of mesophiles to the temperature upper limit.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218985}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218985}, pmid = {31220193}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215614.].}, }
@article {pmid31220135, year = {2019}, author = {Leopold, CR and Hess, SC}, title = {Facilitating adaptation to climate change while restoring a montane plant community.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218516}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218516}, pmid = {31220135}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Montane plant communities throughout the world have responded to changes in temperature regimes by shifting ranges upward in elevation, and made downslope movements to track shifts in climatic water balance. Organisms that cannot disperse or adapt biologically to projected climate scenarios in situ may decrease in distributional range and abundance over time. Restoration strategies will need to incorporate the habitat suitability of future predicted conditions to ensure long-term persistence. We propagated seedlings of three native Hawaiian montane plant species from high- (~2,500 m asl) and low-elevation (~1,900 m asl) sources, planted them in 8 common plots along a 500 m elevation gradient, and monitored microclimate at each plot for 20 weeks. We explored how temperature and precipitation influenced survival and growth differently among high- and low-elevation origin seedlings. Significantly more seedlings of only one species, Dodonaea viscosa, from high-elevation origin (75.2%) survived than seedlings from low-elevation origin (58.7%) across the entire elevation gradient. Origin also influenced survival in generalized linear mixed models that controlled for temperature, precipitation, and elevation in D. viscosa and Chenopodium oahuense. Survival increased with elevation and soil moisture for Sophora chrysophylla, while it decreased for the other two species. Responses to microclimate varied between the three montane plant species; there were no common patterns of growth or survival. Although limited in temporal scope, our experiment represents one of the few attempts to examine local adaptation to prospective climate scenarios and addresses challenges to restoration efforts within species' current ranges.}, }
@article {pmid31218931, year = {2019}, author = {Abu Qdais, H and Wuensch, C and Dornack, C and Nassour, A}, title = {The role of solid waste composting in mitigating climate change in Jordan.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {37}, number = {8}, pages = {833-842}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X19855424}, pmid = {31218931}, issn = {1096-3669}, abstract = {Solid waste composting has never been practised on a full scale in Jordan. However, the National Solid Waste Management Strategy recommended five major composting facilities to be put into operation starting from 2025. According to the Ministry of Environment, the waste sector is contributing to 10.6% of the total greenhouse gas emissions of the country. The main objective of this study was to assess the potential of solid waste composting in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in Jordan. Applying the upstream-operating-downstream account framework and developing a model that estimates the greenhouse gas emissions, it was possible to estimate the emissions associated with composting of source-segregated bio-waste, which was compared with three other scenarios, including business as usual (dumping and landfilling), sanitary landfilling, and anaerobic digestion. The assessment revealed that composting and anaerobic digestion of the total generated source-segregated bio-waste (Scenarios 3 and 4) have the least net greenhouse gas emissions with 1.1 million Mg CO2-eq y-1, while engineered sanitary landfilling and dumping have net emissions of 2.6 and 3.75 million Mg CO2-eq y-1, respectively. The findings of this research are paving the way to make informed and responsible decisions in the Jordanian solid waste sector to adopt sustainable and integrated management options.}, }
@article {pmid31217650, year = {2019}, author = {Senapati, N and Brown, HE and Semenov, MA}, title = {Raising genetic yield potential in high productive countries: Designing wheat ideotypes under climate change.}, journal = {Agricultural and forest meteorology}, volume = {271}, number = {}, pages = {33-45}, doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.02.025}, pmid = {31217650}, issn = {0168-1923}, abstract = {Designing crop ideotype is an important step to raise genetic yield potential in a target environment. In the present study, we designed wheat ideotypes based on the state-of-the-art knowledge in crop physiology to increase genetic yield potential for the 2050-climate, as projected by the HadGEM2 global climate model for the RCP8.5 emission scenario, in two high-wheat-productive countries, viz. the United Kingdom (UK) and New Zealand (NZ). Wheat ideotypes were optimized to maximize yield potential for both water-limited (IW2050) and potential (IP2050) conditions by using Sirius model and exploring the full range of cultivar parameters. On average, a 43-51% greater yield potential over the present winter wheat cv. Claire was achieved for IW2050 in the UK and NZ, whereas a 51-62% increase was obtained for IP2050 . Yield benefits due to the potential condition over water-limitation were small in the UK, but 13% in NZ. The yield potentials of wheat were 16% (2.6 t ha-1) and 31% (5 t ha-1) greater in NZ than in the UK under 2050-climate in water-limited and potential conditions respectively. Modelling predicts the possibility of substantial increase in genetic yield potential of winter wheat under climate change in high productive countries. Wheat ideotypes optimized for future climate could provide plant scientists and breeders with a road map for selection of the target traits and their optimal combinations for wheat improvement and genetic adaptation to raise the yield potential.}, }
@article {pmid31217625, year = {2019}, author = {Van Houtven, G and Phelan, J and Clark, C and Sabo, RD and Buckley, J and Thomas, RQ and Horn, K and LeDuc, SD}, title = {Nitrogen deposition and climate change effects on tree species composition and ecosystem services for a forest cohort.}, journal = {Ecological monographs}, volume = {89}, number = {2}, pages = {e01345}, doi = {10.1002/ecm.1345}, pmid = {31217625}, issn = {0012-9615}, abstract = {The composition of forests in the northeastern United States and the ecosystem services they provide to future generations will depend on several factors. In this paper, we isolate the effects of two environmental drivers, nitrogen (N) deposition and climate (temperature and precipitation) change, through an analysis of a single cohort of 24 dominant tree species. We assembled a tree database using data from U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis monitoring plots. Applying observed species-specific growth and survival responses, we simulated how forest stands in a 19-state study area would change from 2005 to 2100 under 12 different future N deposition-climate scenarios. We then estimated implications for three selected forest ecosystem services: merchantable timber, aboveground carbon sequestration, and tree diversity. Total tree biomass (for 24 species combined) was positively associated with both increased N deposition and temperatures; however, due to differences in the direction and magnitude of species-specific responses, forest composition varied across scenarios. For example, red maple (Acer rubrum) trees gained biomass under scenarios with more N deposition and more climate change, whereas biomass of yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis) and red pine (Pinus resinosa) was negatively affected. Projections for ecosystem services also varied across scenarios. Carbon sequestration, which is positively associated with biomass accumulation, increased with N deposition and increasing climate change. Total timber values also increased with overall biomass; however, scenarios with increasing climate change tended to favor species with lower merchantable value, whereas more N deposition favored species with higher merchantable value. Tree species diversity was projected to decrease with greater changes in climate (warmer temperatures), especially in the northwestern, central, and southeastern portions of the study area. In contrast, the effects of N deposition on diversity varied greatly in magnitude and direction across the study area. This study highlights species-specific and regional effects of N deposition and climate change in northeastern U.S. forests, which can inform management decision for air quality and forests in the region, as well as climate policy. It also provides a foundation for future studies that may incorporate other important factors such as multiple cohorts, sulfur deposition, insects, and diseases.}, }
@article {pmid31216349, year = {2019}, author = {Akpan, GE and Adepoju, KA and Oladosu, OR}, title = {Potential distribution of dominant malaria vector species in tropical region under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218523}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218523}, pmid = {31216349}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Risk assessment regarding the distribution of malaria vectors and environmental variables underpinning their distribution under changing climates is crucial towards malaria control and eradication. On this basis, we used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Model to estimate the potential future distribution of major transmitters of malaria in Nigeria-Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and its siblings: Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and Anopheles arabiensis under low and high emissions scenarios. In the model, we used mosquito occurrence data sampled from 1900 to 2010 alongside land use and terrain variables, and bioclimatic variables for baseline climate 1960-1990 and future climates of 2050s (2041-2060) and 2070s (2061-2080) that follow RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Anopheles gambiae species are projected to experience large shift in potential range and population with increased distribution density, higher under high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and 2070s than low emission scenario (RCP2.6) and 2050s. Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and Anopheles arabiensis are projected to have highest invasion with 47-70% and 10-14% percentage increase, respectively in Sahel and Sudan savannas within northern states in 2041-2080 under RCP8.5. Highest prevalence is predicted for Humid forest and Derived savanna in southern and North Central states in 2041-2080; 91-96% and 97-99% for Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and 67-71% and 72-75% for Anopheles arabiensis under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The higher magnitude of change in species prevalence predicted for the later part of the 21st century under high emission scenario, driven mainly by increasing and fluctuating temperature, alongside longer seasonal tropical rainfall accompanied by drier phases and inherent influence of rapid land use change, may lead to more significant increase in malaria burden when compared with other periods and scenarios during the century; especially in Humid forest, Derived savanna, Sahel and Sudan savannas.}, }
@article {pmid31213707, year = {2019}, author = {Cavicchioli, R and Ripple, WJ and Timmis, KN and Azam, F and Bakken, LR and Baylis, M and Behrenfeld, MJ and Boetius, A and Boyd, PW and Classen, AT and Crowther, TW and Danovaro, R and Foreman, CM and Huisman, J and Hutchins, DA and Jansson, JK and Karl, DM and Koskella, B and Mark Welch, DB and Martiny, JBH and Moran, MA and Orphan, VJ and Reay, DS and Remais, JV and Rich, VI and Singh, BK and Stein, LY and Stewart, FJ and Sullivan, MB and van Oppen, MJH and Weaver, SC and Webb, EA and Webster, NS}, title = {Scientists' warning to humanity: microorganisms and climate change.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {17}, number = {9}, pages = {569-586}, doi = {10.1038/s41579-019-0222-5}, pmid = {31213707}, issn = {1740-1534}, abstract = {In the Anthropocene, in which we now live, climate change is impacting most life on Earth. Microorganisms support the existence of all higher trophic life forms. To understand how humans and other life forms on Earth (including those we are yet to discover) can withstand anthropogenic climate change, it is vital to incorporate knowledge of the microbial 'unseen majority'. We must learn not just how microorganisms affect climate change (including production and consumption of greenhouse gases) but also how they will be affected by climate change and other human activities. This Consensus Statement documents the central role and global importance of microorganisms in climate change biology. It also puts humanity on notice that the impact of climate change will depend heavily on responses of microorganisms, which are essential for achieving an environmentally sustainable future.}, }
@article {pmid31213189, year = {2019}, author = {Calatayud, J and Rodríguez, MÁ and Molina-Venegas, R and Leo, M and Horreo, JL and Hortal, J}, title = {Pleistocene climate change and the formation of regional species pools.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1905}, pages = {20190291}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2019.0291}, pmid = {31213189}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {Although the description of bioregions dates back to the origin of biogeography, the processes originating their associated species pools have been seldom studied. Ancient historical events are thought to play a fundamental role in configuring bioregions, but the effects of more recent events on these regional biotas are largely unknown. We used a network approach to identify regional and sub-regional faunas of European Carabus beetles and developed a method to explore the relative contribution of dispersal barriers, niche similarities and phylogenetic history on their configuration. We identify a transition zone matching the limit of the ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum. While southern species pools are mostly separated by dispersal barriers, in the north species are mainly sorted by their environmental niches. Strikingly, most phylogenetic structuration of Carabus faunas occurred during the Pleistocene. Our results show how extreme recent historical events-such as Pleistocene climate cooling, rather than just deep-time evolutionary processes-can profoundly modify the composition and structure of geographical species pools.}, }
@article {pmid31211860, year = {2019}, author = {Wise, DH and Lensing, JR}, title = {Impacts of rainfall extremes predicted by climate-change models on major trophic groups in the leaf litter arthropod community.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13046}, pmid = {31211860}, issn = {1365-2656}, support = {DEB-0735236//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; DEB-9815842//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; Hatch Project KY008024//Kentucky Agricultural Experiment Station/ ; }, abstract = {Arthropods in the leaf litter layer of forest soils influence ecosystem processes such as decomposition. Climate-change models predict both increases and decreases in average rainfall. Increased drought may have greater impacts on the litter arthropod community. In addition to affecting survival or behaviour of desiccation-sensitive species, lower rainfall may indirectly lower abundances of consumers that graze drought-stressed fungi, with repercussions for higher trophic levels. We tested the hypothesis that trophic structure will differ between the two rainfall scenarios. In particular, we hypothesized that densities of several broadly defined trophic groupings of arthropods would be lower under reduced rainfall. To test this hypothesis, we used sprinklers to impose two rainfall treatments during three growing seasons in roofed, fenced 14-m2 plots and documented changes in abundance from initial, pre-treatment densities of 39 arthropod taxa. Experimental plots were subjected to either LOW (fortnightly) or HIGH (weekly) average rainfall based upon climate models and the previous 100 years of regional weekly averages. Unroofed open plots, our reference treatment (REF), experienced higher than average rainfall during the experiment. The two rainfall extremes produced clear negative effects of lowered rainfall on major trophic groups. Broad categories of fungivores, detritivores and predators were more abundant in HIGH than LOW plots by the final year. Springtails (Collembola), which graze fungal hyphae, were 3× more abundant in the HIGH rainfall treatment. Taxa of larger-bodied fungivores and detritivores, spiders (Araneae), and non-spider predators were 2× more abundant under HIGH rainfall. Densities of mites (Acari), which include fungivores, detritivores and predators, were 1.5× greater in HIGH rainfall plots. Abundances and community structure of arthropods were similar in REF and experimental plots, showing that effects of rainfall uncovered in the experiment are applicable to nature. This pattern suggests that changes in rainfall will alter bottom-up control processes in a critical detritus-based food web of deciduous forests. Our results, in conjunction with other findings on the impact of desiccation on arthropods and fungal growth, suggest that drier conditions will depress densities of fungal consumers, causing declines in higher trophic levels, with possible impacts on soil processes and the larger forest food web.}, }
@article {pmid31209292, year = {2019}, author = {de Souza, JG and Robinson, M and Maezumi, SY and Capriles, J and Hoggarth, JA and Lombardo, U and Novello, VF and Apaéstegui, J and Whitney, B and Urrego, D and Alves, DT and Rostain, S and Power, MJ and Mayle, FE and da Cruz, FW and Hooghiemstra, H and Iriarte, J}, title = {Climate change and cultural resilience in late pre-Columbian Amazonia.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {7}, pages = {1007-1017}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-019-0924-0}, pmid = {31209292}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {The long-term response of ancient societies to climate change has been a matter of global debate. Until recently, the lack of integrative studies using archaeological, palaeoecological and palaeoclimatological data prevented an evaluation of the relationship between climate change, distinct subsistence strategies and cultural transformations across the largest rainforest of the world, Amazonia. Here we review the most relevant cultural changes seen in the archaeological record of six different regions within Greater Amazonia during late pre-Columbian times. We compare the chronology of those cultural transitions with high-resolution regional palaeoclimate proxies, showing that, while some societies faced major reorganization during periods of climate change, others were unaffected and even flourished. We propose that societies with intensive, specialized land-use systems were vulnerable to transient climate change. In contrast, land-use systems that relied primarily on polyculture agroforestry, resulting in the formation of enriched forests and fertile Amazonian dark earth in the long term, were more resilient to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31207282, year = {2019}, author = {Klymasz-Swartz, AK and Allen, GJP and Treberg, JR and Yoon, GR and Tripp, A and Quijada-Rodriguez, AR and Weihrauch, D}, title = {Impact of climate change on the American lobster (Homarus americanus): Physiological responses to combined exposure of elevated temperature and pCO2.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {235}, number = {}, pages = {202-210}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.06.005}, pmid = {31207282}, issn = {1531-4332}, abstract = {The physiological consequences of exposing marine organisms to predicted future ocean scenarios, i.e. simultaneous increase in temperature and pCO2, have only recently begun to be investigated. Adult American lobster (Homarus americanus) were exposed to either current (16 °C, 47 Pa pCO2, pH 8.10) or predicted year 2300 (20 °C, 948 Pa pCO2, pH 7.10) ocean parameters for 14-16 days prior to assessing physiological changes in their hemolymph parameters as well as whole animal ammonia excretion and resting metabolic rate. Acclimation of lobster simultaneously to elevated pCO2 and temperature induced a prolonged respiratory acidosis that was only partially compensated for via accumulation of extracellular HCO3- and ammonia. Furthermore, acclimated animals possessed significantly higher ammonia excretion and oxygen consumption rates suggesting that future ocean scenarios may increase basal energetic demands on H. americanus. Enzyme activity related to protein metabolism (glutamine dehydrogenase, alanine aminotransferase, and aspartate aminotransferase) in hepatopancreas and muscle tissue were unaltered in future ocean scenario exposed animals; however, muscular citrate synthase activity was reduced suggesting that, while protein catabolism may be unchanged, the net energetic output of muscle may be compromised in future scenarios. Overall, H. americanus acclimated to ocean conditions predicted for the year 2300 appear to be incapable of fully compensating against climate change-related acid-base challenges and experience an increase in metabolic waste excretion and oxygen consumption. Combining our study with past literature on H. americanus suggests that the whole lifecycle from larvae to adult stages is at risk of severe growth, survival and reproductive consequences due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31203848, year = {2019}, author = {Chala, D and Roos, C and Svenning, JC and Zinner, D}, title = {Species-specific effects of climate change on the distribution of suitable baboon habitats - Ecological niche modeling of current and Last Glacial Maximum conditions.}, journal = {Journal of human evolution}, volume = {132}, number = {}, pages = {215-226}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhevol.2019.05.003}, pmid = {31203848}, issn = {1095-8606}, abstract = {Baboons (genus Papio) have been proposed as a possible analogous phylogeographic model for intra-African dispersal of hominins during the Pleistocene. Previous studies of the genus reveal complex evolutionary dynamics including introgressive hybridization and, as for hominins, it has been hypothesized that past climate change has been a major driver in their evolutionary history. However, how historical climate changes affected the distribution and extent of baboon habitats is not clear. We therefore employed three ecological niche modeling algorithms (maximum entropy model: MaxEnt; general additive model: GAM; gradient boosting model: GBM) to map suitable habitat of baboons at both genus and species levels under two extreme late-Quaternary climates: current (warm period) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, cold period). The three model algorithms predicted habitat suitabilities for the baboon species with high accuracy, as indicated by AUC values of 0.83-0.85 at genus level and ≥0.90 for species. The results suggest that climate change from LGM to current affected the distribution and extent of suitable habitats for the genus Papio only slightly (>80% of the habitat remained suitable). However, and in contrast to our expectation for ecological generalists, individual species have been differentially affected. While P. ursinus and P. anubis lost some of their suitable habitats (net loss 25.5% and 13.3% respectively), P. kindae and P. papio gained large portions (net gain >62%), and P. cynocephalus and P. hamadryas smaller portions (net gain >20%). Overlap among the specific realized climate niches remained small, suggesting only slight overlap of suitable habitat among species. Results of our study further suggest that shifts of suitable habitats could have led to isolation and reconnection of populations which most likely affected gene flow among them. The impact of historic climate changes on baboon habitats might have been similar for other savanna living species, such as hominins.}, }
@article {pmid31203758, year = {2019}, author = {Spicer, JI and Morley, SA and Bozinovic, F}, title = {Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1778}, pages = {20190032}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2019.0032}, pmid = {31203758}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Documenting and explaining global patterns of biodiversity in time and space have fascinated and occupied biologists for centuries. Investigation of the importance of these patterns, and their underpinning mechanisms, has gained renewed vigour and importance, perhaps becoming pre-eminent, as we attempt to predict the biological impacts of global climate change. Understanding the physiological features that determine, or constrain, a species' geographical range and how they respond to a rapidly changing environment is critical. While the ecological patterns are crystallizing, explaining the role of physiology has just begun. The papers in this volume are the primary output from a Satellite Meeting of the Society of Experimental Biology Annual Meeting, held in Florence in July 2018. The involvement of two key environmental factors, temperature and oxygen, was explored through the testing of key hypotheses. The aim of the meeting was to improve our knowledge of large-scale geographical differences in physiology, e.g. metabolism, growth, size and subsequently our understanding of the role and vulnerability of those physiologies to global climate warming. While such an aim is of heuristic interest, in the midst of our current biodiversity crisis, it has an urgency that is difficult to overstate. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.}, }
@article {pmid31203756, year = {2019}, author = {Bennett, S and Duarte, CM and Marbà, N and Wernberg, T}, title = {Integrating within-species variation in thermal physiology into climate change ecology.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1778}, pages = {20180550}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0550}, pmid = {31203756}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Accurately forecasting the response of global biota to warming is a fundamental challenge for ecology in the Anthropocene. Within-species variation in thermal sensitivity, caused by phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation of thermal limits, is often overlooked in assessments of species responses to warming. Despite this, implicit assumptions of thermal niche conservatism or adaptation and plasticity at the species level permeate the literature with potentially important implications for predictions of warming impacts at the population level. Here we review how these attributes interact with the spatial and temporal context of ocean warming to influence the vulnerability of marine organisms. We identify a broad spectrum of thermal sensitivities among marine organisms, particularly in central and cool-edge populations of species distributions. These are characterized by generally low sensitivity in organisms with conserved thermal niches, to high sensitivity for organisms with locally adapted thermal niches. Important differences in thermal sensitivity among marine taxa suggest that warming could adversely affect benthic primary producers sooner than less vulnerable higher trophic groups. Embracing the spatial, temporal and biological context of within-species variation in thermal physiology helps explain observed impacts of ocean warming and can improve forecasts of climate change vulnerability in marine systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.}, }
@article {pmid31203298, year = {2019}, author = {Johnson, RJ and Sánchez-Lozada, LG and Newman, LS and Lanaspa, MA and Diaz, HF and Lemery, J and Rodriguez-Iturbe, B and Tolan, DR and Butler-Dawson, J and Sato, Y and Garcia, G and Hernando, AA and Roncal-Jimenez, CA}, title = {Climate Change and the Kidney.}, journal = {Annals of nutrition &amp; metabolism}, volume = {74 Suppl 3}, number = {}, pages = {38-44}, doi = {10.1159/000500344}, pmid = {31203298}, issn = {1421-9697}, abstract = {The worldwide increase in temperature has resulted in a marked increase in heat waves (heat extremes) that carries a markedly increased risk for morbidity and mortality. The kidney has a unique role not only in protecting the host from heat and dehydration but also is an important site of heat-associated disease. Here we review the potential impact of global warming and heat extremes on kidney diseases. High temperatures can result in increased core temperatures, dehydration, and blood hyperosmolality. Heatstroke (both clinical and subclinical whole-body hyperthermia) may have a major role in causing both acute kidney disease, leading to increased risk of acute kidney injury from rhabdomyolysis, or heat-induced inflammatory injury to the kidney. Recurrent heat and dehydration can result in chronic kidney disease (CKD) in animals and theoretically plays a role in epidemics of CKD developing in hot regions of the world where workers are exposed to extreme heat. Heat stress and dehydration also has a role in kidney stone formation, and poor hydration habits may increase the risk for recurrent urinary tract infections. The resultant social and economic consequences include disability and loss of productivity and employment. Given the rise in world temperatures, there is a major need to better understand how heat stress can induce kidney disease, how best to provide adequate hydration, and ways to reduce the negative effects of chronic heat exposure.}, }
@article {pmid31202139, year = {2019}, author = {Balsara, S and Jain, PK and Ramesh, A}, title = {An integrated approach using AHP and DEMATEL for evaluating climate change mitigation strategies of the Indian cement manufacturing industry.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {252}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {863-878}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.05.059}, pmid = {31202139}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Concrete, a cement-based product is the highest manufactured and second highest consumed product after water on earth. Across the world, production of cement is the most energy and emission intensive industry hence, the cement industry is currently under pressure to reduce greenhouse gases emissions (GHGEs). However, reducing the GHGEs of the cement industry especially for developing country like India is not an easy task. Cement manufacturing industry needs to focus on significant climate change mitigation strategies to reduce the GHGEs to sustain its production. This study aims at identifying significant climate change mitigation strategies of the cement manufacturing industry in the context of India. Extant literature review and expert opinion are used to identify climate change mitigation strategies of the cement manufacturing industry. In the present study, a model projects by applying both AHP and DEMATEL techniques to assess the climate change mitigation strategies of the cement industry. The AHP technique help in establishing the priorities of climate change mitigation strategies, while the DEMATEL technique forms the causal relationships among them. Through AHP, the results of this research demonstrate that Fuel emission reduction is on top most priority while the relative importance priority of the main remaining factors is Process emission reduction - Electric energy-related emission - Emission avoidance and reduction - Management mitigation measures. The findings also indicate that the main factors, Process emission reduction, and Fuel emission reduction are categorized in cause group factors, while the remaining factors, Electric energy-related emission, Emission avoidance and reduction and Management mitigation measures are in effect group factors. Present model will help supply chain analysts to develop both short-term and long-term decisive measures for effectively managing and reducing GHGEs.}, }
@article {pmid31202136, year = {2019}, author = {Ma, Y and Liu, L and Schwenke, G and Yang, B}, title = {The global warming potential of straw-return can be reduced by application of straw-decomposing microbial inoculants and biochar in rice-wheat production systems.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {252}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {835-845}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.06.006}, pmid = {31202136}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Straw-return methods that neither negatively impact yield nor bring environmental risk are ideal patterns. To attain this goal, it is necessary to conduct field observation to evaluate the environmental influence of different straw-return methods. Therefore, we conducted a 2-year field study in 2015-2017 to investigate the emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and the changes in topsoil (0-20 cm) organic carbon (SOC) density in a typical Chinese rice-wheat rotation in the Eastern China. These measurements allowed a complete greenhouse gas accounting (net GWP and GHGI) of five treatments including: FP (no straw, plus fertilizer), FS (wheat straw plus fertilizer), FB (straw-derived biochar plus fertilizer), FSDI (wheat straw with straw-decomposing microbial inoculants plus fertilizer) and CK (control: no straw, no fertilizer). Average annual SOC sequestration rates were estimated to be 0.20, 0.97, 1.97 and 1.87 t C ha-1 yr-1 (0-20 cm) for the FP, FS, FB and FSDI treatments respectively. Relative to the FP treatment, the FS and FSDI treatments increased CH4 emissions by 12.4 and 17.9% respectively, but decreased N2O emissions by 19.1 and 26.6%. Conversely, the FB treatment decreased CH4 emission by 7.2% and increased N2O emission by 10.9% compared to FP. FB increased grain yield, but FS and FSDI did not. Compared to the net GWP (11.6 t CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1) and GHGI (1.20 kg CO2-eq kg-1 grain) of FP, the FS, FB and FSDI treatments reduced net GWP by 12.6, 59.9 and 34.6% and GHGI by 10.5, 65.8 and 37.7% respectively. In rice-wheat systems of eastern China, the environmentally beneficial effects of returning wheat straw can be greatly enhanced by application of straw-decomposing microbial inoculants or by applying straw-derived biochar.}, }
@article {pmid31197167, year = {2019}, author = {Debortoli, NS and Clark, DG and Ford, JD and Sayles, JS and Diaconescu, EP}, title = {An integrative climate change vulnerability index for Arctic aviation and marine transportation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {2596}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-10347-1}, pmid = {31197167}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate change vulnerability research methods are often divergent, drawing from siloed biophysical risk approaches or social-contextual frameworks, lacking methods for integrative approaches. This substantial gap has been noted by scientists, policymakers and communities, inhibiting decision-makers' capacity to implement adaptation policies responsive to both physical risks and social sensitivities. Aiming to contribute to the growing literature on integrated vulnerability approaches, we conceptualize and translate new integrative theoretical insights of vulnerability research to a scalable quantitative method. Piloted through a climate change vulnerability index for aviation and marine sectors in the Canadian Arctic, this study demonstrates an avenue of applying vulnerability concepts to assess both biophysical and social components analyzing future changes with linked RCP climate projections. The iterative process we outline is transferable and adaptable across the circumpolar north, as well as other global regions and shows that transportation vulnerability varies across Inuit regions depending on modeled hazards and transportation infrastructures.}, }
@article {pmid31196987, year = {2019}, author = {Kubelka, V and Šálek, M and Tomkovich, P and Végvári, S and Freckleton, RP and Székely, T}, title = {Response to Comment on &quot;Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds&quot;.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {364}, number = {6445}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw9893}, pmid = {31196987}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Nesting Behavior ; Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {Bulla et al dispute our main conclusion that the global pattern of nest predation is disrupted in shorebirds. We disagree with Bulla et al's conclusions and contest the robustness of their outcomes. We reaffirm our results that provide clear evidence that nest predation has increased significantly in shorebirds, especially in the Arctic.}, }
@article {pmid31196986, year = {2019}, author = {Bulla, M and Reneerkens, J and Weiser, EL and Sokolov, A and Taylor, AR and Sittler, B and McCaffery, BJ and Ruthrauff, DR and Catlin, DH and Payer, DC and Ward, DH and Solovyeva, DV and Santos, ESA and Rakhimberdiev, E and Nol, E and Kwon, E and Brown, GS and Hevia, GD and Gates, HR and Johnson, JA and van Gils, JA and Hansen, J and Lamarre, JF and Rausch, J and Conklin, JR and Liebezeit, J and Bêty, J and Lang, J and Alves, JA and Fernández-Elipe, J and Exo, KM and Bollache, L and Bertellotti, M and Giroux, MA and van de Pol, M and Johnson, M and Boldenow, ML and Valcu, M and Soloviev, M and Sokolova, N and Senner, NR and Lecomte, N and Meyer, N and Schmidt, NM and Gilg, O and Smith, PA and Machín, P and McGuire, RL and Cerboncini, RAS and Ottvall, R and van Bemmelen, RSA and Swift, RJ and Saalfeld, ST and Jamieson, SE and Brown, S and Piersma, T and Albrecht, T and D'Amico, V and Lanctot, RB and Kempenaers, B}, title = {Comment on &quot;Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds&quot;.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {364}, number = {6445}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw8529}, pmid = {31196986}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Nesting Behavior ; Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {Kubelka et al (Reports, 9 November 2018, p. 680) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.}, }
@article {pmid31194805, year = {2019}, author = {Ferreira, MT and Cardoso, P and Borges, PAV and Gabriel, R and de Azevedo, EB and Elias, RB}, title = {Implications of climate change to the design of protected areas: The case study of small islands (Azores).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218168}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218168}, pmid = {31194805}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change is causing shifts in species distributions worldwide. Understanding how species distributions will change with future climate change is thus critical for conservation planning. Impacts on oceanic islands are potentially major given the disproportionate number of endemic species and the consequent risk that local extinctions might become global ones. In this study, we use species climate envelope models to evaluate the current and future potential distributions of Azorean endemic species of bryophytes, vascular plants, and arthropods on the Islands of Terceira and São Miguel in the Azores archipelago (Macaronesia). We examined projections of climate change effects on the future distributions of species with particular focus on the current protected areas. We then used spatial planning optimization software (PRION) to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas at preserving species both in the present and future. We found that contractions of species distributions in protected areas are more likely in the largest and most populated island of São Miguel, moving from the coastal areas towards inland where the current protected areas are insufficient and inadequate to tackle species distribution shifts. There will be the need for a revision of the current protected areas in São Miguel to allow the sustainable conservation of most species, while in Terceira Island the current protected areas appear to be sufficient. Our study demonstrates the importance of these tools for informing long-term climate change adaptation planning for small islands.}, }
@article {pmid31194783, year = {2019}, author = {de Luis, M and Álvarez-Jiménez, J and Martínez Labarga, JM and Bartolomé, C}, title = {Four climate change scenarios for Gypsophila bermejoi G. López (Caryophyllaceae) to address whether bioclimatic and soil suitability will overlap in the future.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218160}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0218160}, pmid = {31194783}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change has altered the global distribution of many species. Accordingly, we have assessed here the potential shift in the distribution of Gypsophila bermejoi G. López under distinct scenarios of future climate change, this being a species endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. For strict gypsophiles, climatic changes affecting their potential area of distribution could be critical if the new range is not overlapped with suitable soils. Thus, the narrow bioclimatic niche and the endemic nature of this plant could make this species particularly vulnerable to climate change. We used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method to study the potential distribution of this taxon under four different scenarios of climate change, pin-pointing relevant changes in the potential distribution of this plant and enabling possible future areas of refuge to be assessed. Such scenarios are defined according to four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [, which represent different trends in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As a result, we predict notable changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi, and the overlap between soil and bioclimatic suitability would be affected. We also used a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to model the bioclimatic niche of this species, comparing it with that of its parental taxa. The evolution of bioclimatic suitability was assessed at the current locations of G. bermejoi and as this plant is a strict gypsophile, we generated suitability maps for sites with gypsum soils. Ultimately, this study identifies relevant changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi under specific climatic scenarios, observing remarkable differences in the outcomes of the different climate change scenarios. Interestingly, in some scenarios the bioclimatic suitability of G. bermejoi will be enhanced at many locations and even in the worst scenario some possible refuge areas were identified. G. bermejoi behaves more like a hardy survivor than as early victim.}, }
@article {pmid31194596, year = {2019}, author = {Cartwright, E}, title = {The Medical Anthropology of Climate Change: Eco-Risks and the Body Environmental.}, journal = {Medical anthropology}, volume = {38}, number = {5}, pages = {436-439}, doi = {10.1080/01459740.2019.1621866}, pmid = {31194596}, issn = {1545-5882}, abstract = {Anthropological research can provide the time depth needed for a rich understanding of the health effects of atmospheric and ocean warming, shifting weather patterns, and the breakdown of biological and social systems large and small. Medical anthropologists are poised to document the human costs of floods, fires, droughts and other catastrophic events, as well as the slowly shifting supplies of fresh water, clean air, and adequate food. Our anthropological eyes on the ground are needed for contextual, local, and critical understandings of how human lifestyles of the twenty-first century are creating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31193440, year = {2019}, author = {Hiscock, R and Asikainen, A and Tuomisto, J and Jantunen, M and Pärjälä, E and Sabel, CE}, title = {Corrigendum to &quot;City scale climate change policies: Do they matter for wellbeing?&quot; [Prev. Med. Rep. 6 (2017) 265-270].}, journal = {Preventive medicine reports}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {100842}, doi = {10.1016/j.pmedr.2019.100842}, pmid = {31193440}, issn = {2211-3355}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2017.03.019.].}, }
@article {pmid31192421, year = {2019}, author = {Hammarstrand, S and Fritzell, V}, title = {[Healthcare plays a key role in adapting to the health effects of climate change].}, journal = {Lakartidningen}, volume = {116}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {31192421}, issn = {1652-7518}, abstract = {Climate change will affect society in many areas, including healthcare.This article aims to explain the health aspects of climate change and how healthcare can play an important role. Rising temperatures affect health through direct effects such as increased heat (especially in tropical countries) and through indirect effects such as deteriorating air quality and changing panorama of infectious diseases. Particularly vulnerable to the effects are small children, elderly and those with severe chronic diseases. In the pursuit of a health care that can resist these effects, action plans based on simple measures that focus on vulnerable groups have been shown to greatly reduce the health impact. Healthcare also has an important role in the work on climate adaptation in Sweden by providing expertise in societal planning and preventive health work. Finally, knowledge among healthcare professionals and students about the health impact of climate change needs to be continuously updated.}, }
@article {pmid31189933, year = {2019}, author = {Lourenço-de-Moraes, R and Lansac-Toha, FM and Schwind, LTF and Arrieira, RL and Rosa, RR and Terribile, LC and Lemes, P and Fernando Rangel, T and Diniz-Filho, JAF and Bastos, RP and Bailly, D}, title = {Climate change will decrease the range size of snake species under negligible protection in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {8523}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-44732-z}, pmid = {31189933}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Reptiles are highly susceptible to climate change, responding negatively to thermal and rainfall alterations mainly in relation to their reproductive processes. Based on that, we evaluated the effects of climate change on climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of snakes in the Atlantic Forest hotspot, considering the responses of distinct reproductive groups (oviparous and viviparous). We assessed the species richness and turnover patterns affected by climate change and projected the threat status of each snake species at the end of the century. We also evaluated the effectiveness of the protected areas in safeguarding the species by estimating the mean percentage overlap between snake species distribution and protected areas (PAs) network and by assessing whether such areas will gain or lose species under climate change. Our results showed greater species richness in the eastern-central portion of the Atlantic Forest at present. In general, we evidenced a drastic range contraction of the snake species under climate change. Temporal turnover tends to be high in the western and north-eastern edges of the biome, particularly for oviparous species. Our predictions indicate that 73.6% of oviparous species and 67.6% of viviparous species could lose at least half of their original range by 2080. We also found that existing protected areas of the Atlantic Forest Hotspot have a very limited capacity to safeguard snakes at the current time, maintaining the precarious protection in the future, with the majority of them predicted to lose species at the end of this century. Although oviparous and viviparous snakes have been designated to be dramatically impacted, our study suggests a greater fragility of the former in the face of climate change. We advocated that the creation of new protected areas and/or the redesign of the existing network to harbour regions that maximize the snake species occupancy in the face of future warming scenarios are crucial measures for the conservation of this group.}, }
@article {pmid31189777, year = {2019}, author = {Horie, T}, title = {Global warming and rice production in Asia: Modeling, impact prediction and adaptation.}, journal = {Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and biological sciences}, volume = {95}, number = {6}, pages = {211-245}, doi = {10.2183/pjab.95.016}, pmid = {31189777}, issn = {1349-2896}, abstract = {Since the projection of global warming emerged in 1980s with the potential of laying enormous impacts on agriculture and food security of the world, we have conducted experimental and modeling studies for clarifying its effects on rice production in Asia and for developing adaptive rice production technologies. On the basis of measurement of rice responses to climate and carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), the dynamic process model named SIMRIW was developed to predict global warming effects on irrigated rice. The model predicted differential regional effects of the projected global warming by doubling [CO2] on the rice yield over Asia, and indicated that high tolerance to heat-induced spikelet sterility and high yield potential under elevated [CO2] are the two important characteristics required for rice genotypes adaptive to global warming environment. Further, genetic traits associated with these characteristics and their genetic resources for breeding adaptive genotypes were identified from diverse rice germplasms. This article reviews our initiative studies in the light of the recent studies, and points out further research that is needed for better understanding and overcoming of this unprecedentedly large problem.}, }
@article {pmid31188822, year = {2019}, author = {Nogeire-McRae, T and Lawler, JJ and Schumaker, NH and Cypher, BL and Phillips, SE}, title = {Land use change and rodenticide exposure trump climate change as the biggest stressors to San Joaquin kit fox.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0214297}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0214297}, pmid = {31188822}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Animal and plant species often face multiple threats simultaneously. We explored the relative impact of three major threats on populations of the endangered San Joaquin kit fox. This species was once widely distributed across the southern San Joaquin Valley, California, USA, but agriculture and urban development have replaced much of its natural habitat. We modeled impacts of climate change, land-use change, and rodenticide exposure on kit fox populations using a spatially explicit, individual-based population model from 2000 to 2050 for the Central Valley, California. Our study indicates that land-use change will likely have the largest impact on kit fox populations. Land development has the potential to decrease populations by approximately 15% under a compact growth scenario in which projected population increases are accommodated within existing urban areas, and 17% under a business-as-usual scenario in which future population growth increases the developed area around urban centers. Plausible scenarios for exposure to pesticides suggest a reduction in kit fox populations by approximately 13%. By contrast, climate change has the potential to ameliorate some of these impacts. Climate-change induced vegetation shifts have the potential to increase total available kit fox habitat and could drive population increases of up to 7%. These vegetation shifts could also reduce movement barriers and create opportunities for hybridization between the endangered San Joaquin kit fox and the more widely distributed desert kit fox, found in the Mojave Desert. In contrast to these beneficial impacts, increasing climate extremes raise the probability of the kit fox population dropping below critical levels. Taken together, these results paint a complex picture of how an at-risk species is likely to respond to multiple threats.}, }
@article {pmid31186360, year = {2019}, author = {Lotze, HK and Tittensor, DP and Bryndum-Buchholz, A and Eddy, TD and Cheung, WWL and Galbraith, ED and Barange, M and Barrier, N and Bianchi, D and Blanchard, JL and Bopp, L and Büchner, M and Bulman, CM and Carozza, DA and Christensen, V and Coll, M and Dunne, JP and Fulton, EA and Jennings, S and Jones, MC and Mackinson, S and Maury, O and Niiranen, S and Oliveros-Ramos, R and Roy, T and Fernandes, JA and Schewe, J and Shin, YJ and Silva, TAM and Steenbeek, J and Stock, CA and Verley, P and Volkholz, J and Walker, ND and Worm, B}, title = {Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {26}, pages = {12907-12912}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1900194116}, pmid = {31186360}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.}, }
@article {pmid31182713, year = {2019}, author = {Kiat, Y and Vortman, Y and Sapir, N}, title = {Feather moult and bird appearance are correlated with global warming over the last 200 years.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {2540}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-10452-1}, pmid = {31182713}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Feathers/anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Male ; Molting/*physiology ; Passeriformes/anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Sex Characteristics ; }, abstract = {Global warming alters various avian phenological processes, including advanced reproduction and migration schedules. In birds, individual appearance is largely determined by plumage, influencing, for example, bird attractiveness, social status and camouflage. Juveniles of most passerine species replace their nest-grown plumage during the first months of life, a process that is called post-juvenile feather moult. Using data from ten natural history collections, we show that the extent of the post-juvenile moult has increased significantly over the last 212 years (1805-2016), a trend that is positively correlated with the temperature of the environment. Therefore, it seems that birds replaced more feathers under warmer conditions, causing juveniles to appear more similar to adult birds. Moreover, in several species, we describe a male-female switch in the extent of moult, with females currently replacing more feathers than males compared to the past. These results demonstrate different biological responses to climate warming by different phenotypes.}, }
@article {pmid31182543, year = {2019}, author = {Emerick, K and Ronald, PC}, title = {Sub1 Rice: Engineering Rice for Climate Change.}, journal = {Cold Spring Harbor perspectives in biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1101/cshperspect.a034637}, pmid = {31182543}, issn = {1943-0264}, abstract = {By the year 2100, the number of people on Earth is expected to increase by ∼50%, placing increasing demands on food production in a time when a changing climate is predicted to compromise crop yields. Feeding this future world requires scientifically informed innovations in agriculture. Here, we describe how a rice gene conferring tolerance to prolonged submergence has helped farmers in South and Southeast Asia mitigate rice crop failure during floods. We discuss how planting of this new variety benefited socially disadvantaged groups. This example indicates that investment in agricultural improvement can protect farmers from risks associated with a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid31179548, year = {2019}, author = {Celedon, JM and Bohlmann, J}, title = {Oleoresin defenses in conifers: chemical diversity, terpene synthases and limitations of oleoresin defense under climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.15984}, pmid = {31179548}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; //Genome Canada/ ; //Genome British Columbia/ ; //Genome Quebec/ ; }, abstract = {Conifers have evolved complex oleoresin terpene defenses against herbivores and pathogens. In co-evolved bark beetles, conifer terpenes also serve chemo-ecological functions as pheromone precursors, chemical barcodes for host identification, or nutrients for insect-associated microbiomes. We highlight the genomic, molecular and biochemical underpinnings of the large chemical space of conifer oleoresin terpenes and volatiles. Conifer terpenes are predominantly the products of the conifer terpene synthase (TPS) gene family. Terpene diversity is increased by cytochromes P450 of the CYP720B class. Many conifer TPS are multiproduct enzymes. Multisubstrate CYP720B enzymes catalyse multistep oxidations. We summarise known terpenoid gene functions in various different conifer species with reference to the annotated terpenoid gene space in a spruce genome. Overall, biosynthesis of terpene diversity in conifers is achieved through a system of biochemical radiation and metabolic grids. Expression of TPS and CYP720B genes can be specific to individual cell types of constitutive or traumatic resin duct systems. Induced terpenoid transcriptomes in resin duct cells lead to dynamic changes of terpene composition and quantity to fend off herbivores and pathogens. While terpenoid defenses have contributed much to the evolutionary success of conifers, under new conditions of climate change, these defences may become inconsequential against range-expanding forest pests.}, }
@article {pmid31179195, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, M and Liu, Z and van Dijk, MP}, title = {Measuring urban vulnerability to climate change using an integrated approach, assessing climate risks in Beijing.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7018}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.7018}, pmid = {31179195}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {This study is responding to the recommendation made by IPCC's fifth Assessment Report on establishing a standard for measuring and reporting climate risk and vulnerability. It exemplifies the assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change by an integrated approach. The results indicate that Beijing is highly exposed to multiple climate threats in the context of global climate change, specifically urban heat waves, urban drainage floods and drought. Vulnerabilities to the climatic threats of heat waves, drainage floods and droughts have increased by 5%-15% during the period of 2008-2016 in Beijing. High vulnerabilities to both heat waves and drainage floods have been observed in the urban downtown area and high vulnerability to droughts have been observed in the outskirts. This vulnerability assessment, which addressed climatic threats, provides a holistic understanding of the susceptibility to climate change that could facilitate adaptation to climate change in the future. The developments of threats like flooding, heat waves and droughts are analyzed separately for 16 districts and an integrated vulnerability index for all of Beijing is provided as well.}, }
@article {pmid31176879, year = {2019}, author = {Rotundo, JL and Tang, T and Messina, CD}, title = {Response of maize photosynthesis to high temperature: Implications for modeling the impact of global warming.}, journal = {Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB}, volume = {141}, number = {}, pages = {202-205}, doi = {10.1016/j.plaphy.2019.05.035}, pmid = {31176879}, issn = {1873-2690}, abstract = {Negative impacts of increased temperature on maize yield are anticipated using simulation models. However, some temperature functions are parameterized with partial information. There is limited information on photosynthesis response to high temperature in modern maize hybrids. Improved photosynthesis-temperature functions are key for realistic yield simulations. Our experiment was aimed at building a functional relationship between photosynthesis and air temperature exploring temperature ranges relevant for global warming simulations. Maize hybrids from cold, temperate, and subtropical regions were included in the study to assess genetic adaptation. Results showed a trilinear response to temperature with an optimum of 40 °C. No genetic adaptation was observed among the diverse set of hybrids evaluated. Results contrast with common temperature-limiting functions indicating a decline in carbon assimilation above 30-33 °C. Our results suggest possible overestimations of negative impacts of global warming on maize yield due to the use of inadequate response functions relating carbon assimilation to temperature.}, }
@article {pmid31176768, year = {2019}, author = {Nadermann, N and Seward, RK and Volkoff, H}, title = {Effects of potential climate change -induced environmental modifications on food intake and the expression of appetite regulators in goldfish.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {235}, number = {}, pages = {138-147}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.06.001}, pmid = {31176768}, issn = {1531-4332}, abstract = {Climate changes due to global warming result in part from the release of gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane into the atmosphere and results in warming and acidification of water bodies, and changes precipitation and wind patterns, which might in turn affect water currents, turbulence and turbidity. These changes might affect feeding and its endocrine control. Feeding is regulated by central and peripheral hormones that either stimulate (e.g. orexin, ghrelin) or inhibit (e.g. irisin, cocaine and amphetamine regulated transcript - CART, cholecystokinin - CCK and peptide YY -PYY) food intake. In this study we examined the effects of four climate change-related environmental factors (i.e. temperature, pH, turbulence and turbidity) on food intake and the hypothalamic and intestinal expressions of appetite regulators in fish, using goldfish as a model. High temperatures increased food intake and the brain expression of orexin, and decrease brain CART 1 and intestinal CCK, PYY and ghrelin. Low pHs decreased feeding and increased the expressions of CART1 and CART2 in the hypothalamus and CCK and PYY in the intestine. Turbulence (waves) induced an increase in food intake and a decrease in mRNA expression levels of both CART1 and CART2 in the hypothalamus and both CCK and PYY in the intestine. Turbidity (low visibility) did not affect food intake but increased locomotion and the time taken to reach satiation, while increasing brain orexin and intestinal PYY expression levels and lowering CART1 hypothalamic expression. The results of this study suggest that environmental stress affects feeding physiology of goldfish and bring new insights on how fish might respond to climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid31176230, year = {2019}, author = {Burley, H and Beaumont, LJ and Ossola, A and Baumgartner, JB and Gallagher, R and Laffan, S and Esperon-Rodriguez, M and Manea, A and Leishman, MR}, title = {Substantial declines in urban tree habitat predicted under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {685}, number = {}, pages = {451-462}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.287}, pmid = {31176230}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Australia ; Cities/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Globally, local governments are increasing investment in urban greening projects. However, there is little consideration of whether the species being planted will be resilient to climate change. We assessed the distribution of climatically suitable habitat, now and in the future, for 176 tree species native to Australia, commonly planted across Australia's Significant Urban Areas (SUAs) and currently grown by commercial nurseries. Species' occurrence records were obtained from inventories and herbaria, globally and across Australia, and combined with baseline climate data (WorldClim, 1960-1990) and six climate scenarios for 2030 and 2070 using climatic suitability models (CSMs). CSMs for each species were calibrated and projected onto baseline and future scenarios. We calculated changes in the size of climatically suitable habitat for each species across each SUA, and identified urban areas that are likely to have suitable climate for either fewer or more of our study species under future climate. By 2070, climatically suitable habitat in SUAs is predicted to decline for 73% of species assessed. For 18% of these species, climatically suitable area is predicted to be more than halved, relative to their baseline extent. Generally, for urban areas in cooler regions, climatically suitable habitat is predicted to increase. By contrast, for urban areas in warmer regions, a greater proportion of tree species may lose climatically suitable habitat. Our results highlight changing patterns of urban climatic space for commonly planted species, suggesting that local governments and the horticultural industry should take a proactive approach to identify new climate-ready species for urban plantings.}, }
@article {pmid31175008, year = {2019}, author = {Robert, MA and Christofferson, RC and Weber, PD and Wearing, HJ}, title = {Temperature impacts on dengue emergence in the United States: Investigating the role of seasonality and climate change.}, journal = {Epidemics}, volume = {28}, number = {}, pages = {100344}, doi = {10.1016/j.epidem.2019.05.003}, pmid = {31175008}, issn = {1878-0067}, abstract = {Tropical mosquito-borne viruses have been expanding into more temperate regions in recent decades. This is partly due to the coupled effects of temperature on mosquito life history traits and viral infection dynamics and warming surface temperatures, resulting in more suitable conditions for vectors and virus transmission. In this study, we use a deterministic ordinary differential equations model to investigate how seasonal and diurnal temperature fluctuations affect the potential for dengue transmission in six U.S. cities. We specifically consider temperature-dependent mosquito larval development, adult mosquito mortality, and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus. We show that the ability of introductions to lead to outbreaks depends upon the relationship between a city's temperature profile and the time of year at which the initial case is introduced. We also investigate how the potential for outbreaks changes with predicted future increases in mean temperatures due to climate change. We find that climate change will likely lead to increases in suitability for dengue transmission and will increase the periods of the year in which introductions may lead to outbreaks, particularly in cities that typically have mild winters and warm summers, such as New Orleans, Louisiana, and El Paso, Texas. We discuss our results in the context of temperature heterogeneity within and across cities and how these differences may impact the potential for dengue emergence given present day and predicted future temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid31174110, year = {2019}, author = {Ishida, K and Ohara, N and Ercan, A and Jang, S and Trinh, T and Kavvas, ML and Carr, K and Anderson, ML}, title = {Impacts of climate change on snow accumulation and melting processes over mountainous regions in Northern California during the 21st century.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {685}, number = {}, pages = {104-115}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.255}, pmid = {31174110}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {A point-location-based analysis of future climate change impacts on snow accumulation and melting processes was conducted over three study watersheds in Northern California during a 90-year future period by means of snow regime projections. The snow regime projections were obtained by means of a physically-based snow model with dynamically downscaled future climate projections. Then, atmospheric and snow-related variables, and their interrelations during the 21st century were investigated to reveal future climate change impacts on snow accumulation and melting processes. The analysis shows large reductions in snow water equivalent (SWE), snowfall to precipitation (S/P) ratio, and snowmelt through the 21st century. Timing of the peak of the SWE and snowmelt will also change in the future. Meanwhile, the analysis in this study shows that air temperature rise will affect, but will not dominate the future change in snowmelt over the study watersheds. This result implies the importance of considering atmospheric variables other than air temperature, such as precipitation, shortwave radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed even if these variables will not clearly change during the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid31173048, year = {2019}, author = {De Paula Baer, A and Sestili, C and Cocchiara, RA and Barbato, D and Del Cimmuto, A and La Torre, G}, title = {Perception of Climate Change: validation of a questionnaire in Italy.}, journal = {La Clinica terapeutica}, volume = {170}, number = {3}, pages = {e184-e191}, doi = {10.7417/CT.2019.2131}, pmid = {31173048}, issn = {1972-6007}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Italy ; Male ; Perception ; Reproducibility of Results ; Students/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate Change (CC) is a worldwide concern with important consequences for Public Health. A more sustainable and responsible way of living is necessary in order to reduce CC consequences, and adequation to this is directly related to risk perception and knowledge about the phenomenon. The aim of this study was to validate a questionnaire to measure the knowledge of Italians on CC and its consequences.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: The questionnaire was administered online to high school students, their parents and teachers that were participating to a meeting at Sapienza University. The questionnaire contained a sociodemographic section and 19 questions on causes and consequences of CC and ways to fight it. The statistical analysis was performed with Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 25.<br><br>RESULTS: Sixty-four individuals answered the online questionnaire. The analysis of internal consistency was performed by 12 dichotomous variables that measured the knowledge level on CC. The analysis showed a standardized Cronbach's alpha equal to 0.39, corresponding to a low reliability. When females were excluded, the alpha value rose to 0.497, and ascended to the reliable value of 0.639 when refining the selection of the included questions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The Cronbach's alpha value found showed a low reliability but achieves acceptable levels when considering only males and excluding some of the initial questions. Future studies should be performed in order to highlight the reliability of this tool to assess the knowledge about CC among the population.}, }
@article {pmid31171511, year = {2019}, author = {Dyer, O}, title = {Climate change: swift action is needed to prevent millions of premature deaths, report warns.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {365}, number = {}, pages = {l4104}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l4104}, pmid = {31171511}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid31170149, year = {2019}, author = {Bury, TM and Bauch, CT and Anand, M}, title = {Charting pathways to climate change mitigation in a coupled socio-climate model.}, journal = {PLoS computational biology}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {e1007000}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007000}, pmid = {31170149}, issn = {1553-7358}, abstract = {Geophysical models of climate change are becoming increasingly sophisticated, yet less effort is devoted to modelling the human systems causing climate change and how the two systems are coupled. Here, we develop a simple socio-climate model by coupling an Earth system model to a social dynamics model. We treat social processes endogenously-emerging from rules governing how individuals learn socially and how social norms develop-as well as being influenced by climate change and mitigation costs. Our goal is to gain qualitative insights into scenarios of potential socio-climate dynamics and to illustrate how such models can generate new research questions. We find that the social learning rate is strongly influential, to the point that variation of its value within empirically plausible ranges changes the peak global temperature anomaly by more than 1°C. Conversely, social norms reinforce majority behaviour and therefore may not provide help when we most need it because they suppress the early spread of mitigative behaviour. Finally, exploring the model's parameter space for mitigation cost and social learning suggests optimal intervention pathways for climate change mitigation. We find that prioritising an increase in social learning as a first step, followed by a reduction in mitigation costs provides the most efficient route to a reduced peak temperature anomaly. We conclude that socio-climate models should be included in the ensemble of models used to project climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31168619, year = {2019}, author = {DuRant, SE and Willson, JD and Carroll, RB}, title = {Parental effects and climate change: Will avian incubation behavior shield embryos from increasing environmental temperatures?.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icz083}, pmid = {31168619}, issn = {1557-7023}, abstract = {A major driver of wildlife responses to climate change will include non-genomic effects, like those mediated through parental behavior and physiology (i.e., parental effects). Parental effects can influence lifetime reproductive success and survival, and thus population-level processes. However, the extent to which parental effects will contribute to population persistence or declines in response to climate change is not well understood. These effects may be substantial for species that exhibit extensive parental care behaviors like birds. Environmental temperature is important in shaping avian incubation behavior, both of which interact to determine the thermal conditions embryos are exposed to during development, and subsequently avian phenotypes and secondary sex ratios. In this paper, we argue that incubation behavior may be an important mediator of avian responses to climate change, we compare incubation strategies of two species adapted to different thermal environments nesting in extreme heat, and we present a simple model that estimates changes in egg temperature based on these incubation patterns and predicted increases in maximum daily air temperature. We demonstrate that the predicted increase in air temperature by 2100 in the central United States will increase temperatures eggs experience during afternoon off-bouts, and the proportion of nests exposed to lethal temperatures. To better understand how species and local adaptations and behavioral-plasticity of incubation behavior will contribute to population responses to climate change, comparisons are needed across more avian populations, species, and thermal landscapes.}, }
@article {pmid31168110, year = {2019}, author = {Moon, IJ and Kim, SH and Chan, JCL}, title = {Climate change and tropical cyclone trend.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {570}, number = {7759}, pages = {E3-E5}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1222-3}, pmid = {31168110}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31165645, year = {2019}, author = {Adedze, M and Osei-Yeboah, R}, title = {Underuse of modern contraception in sub-Saharan Africa: are there implications for sustainable development and climate change? A review of the literature.}, journal = {The European journal of contraception &amp; reproductive health care : the official journal of the European Society of Contraception}, volume = {24}, number = {4}, pages = {314-318}, doi = {10.1080/13625187.2019.1618448}, pmid = {31165645}, issn = {1473-0782}, abstract = {Objectives: The aim of this study was to review the recent literature regarding the underuse of modern contraception in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and examine the link with poverty, conflict, sustainable development and climate change. Methods: Data were examined in the PubMed, Hindawi and Science Direct databases. Selected studies were primary research published in the last 10 years relating to modern contraceptive use in SSA. Results: Six common themes contributing to modern contraceptive underuse in SSA emerged: conflicts and security, religious and cultural restrictions, partner consent and support, misconceptions and lack of education, health system barriers and the socioeconomic benefits of having a larger family. Conclusions: The identified barriers to modern contraceptive use in SSA are preventable. It is imperative to ensure that adequate, sustainable measures are implemented to increase the uptake of modern contraception in SSA.}, }
@article {pmid31162076, year = {2019}, author = {Watts, N and Gong, P and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Costello, A and Robinson, E}, title = {Health and climate change - Authors' reply.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10187}, pages = {2197-2198}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31134-1}, pmid = {31162076}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {001//World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid31162074, year = {2019}, author = {Florin, TH and Allen, DW}, title = {Health and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10187}, pages = {2196-2197}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30303-4}, pmid = {31162074}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid31162068, year = {2019}, author = {Gupta, V and Mokdad, A and Bollyky, T and Glassman, A and Daschle, TA}, title = {Leveraging climate change to improve global tobacco control.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10187}, pages = {2182-2183}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30705-6}, pmid = {31162068}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Smoking Prevention ; *Tobacco Products/adverse effects/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid31160627, year = {2019}, author = {Gallagher, RV and Allen, S and Wright, IJ}, title = {Safety margins and adaptive capacity of vegetation to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {8241}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-44483-x}, pmid = {31160627}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {DE170100208//Department of Education and Training | Australian Research Council (ARC)/ ; }, abstract = {Vegetation is composed of many individual species whose climatic tolerances can be integrated into spatial analyses of climate change risk. Here, we quantify climate change risk to vegetation at a continental scale by calculating the safety margins for warming and drying (i.e., tolerance to projected change in temperature and precipitation respectively) across plants sharing 100 km × 100 km grid cells (locations). These safety margins measure how much warmer, or drier, a location could become before its 'typical' species exceeds its observed climatic limit. We also analyse the potential adaptive capacity of vegetation to temperature and precipitation change (i.e., likelihood of in situ persistence) using median precipitation and temperature breadth across all species in each location. 47% of vegetation across Australia is potentially at risk from increases in mean annual temperature (MAT) by 2070, with tropical regions most vulnerable. Vegetation at high risk from climate change often also exhibited low adaptive capacity. By contrast, 2% of the continent is at risk from reductions in annual precipitation by 2070. Risk from precipitation change was isolated to the southwest of Western Australia where both the safety margin for drier conditions in the typical species is low, and substantial reductions in MAP are projected.}, }
@article {pmid31160586, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, X and Xiao, J and Li, X and Cheng, G and Ma, M and Zhu, G and Altaf Arain, M and Andrew Black, T and Jassal, RS}, title = {No trends in spring and autumn phenology during the global warming hiatus.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {2389}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-10235-8}, pmid = {31160586}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {41771466//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/International ; 91425303//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/International ; NNX14AJ18G//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/International ; NNX16AG61G//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/International ; EF-1638688//National Science Foundation (NSF)/International ; }, abstract = {Phenology plays a fundamental role in regulating photosynthesis, evapotranspiration, and surface energy fluxes and is sensitive to climate change. The global mean surface air temperature data indicate a global warming hiatus between 1998 and 2012, while its impacts on global phenology remains unclear. Here we use long-term satellite and FLUXNET records to examine phenology trends in the northern hemisphere before and during the warming hiatus. Our results based on the satellite record show that the phenology change rate slowed down during the warming hiatus. The analysis of the long-term FLUXNET measurements, mainly within the warming hiatus, shows that there were no widespread advancing (or delaying) trends in spring (or autumn) phenology. The lack of widespread phenology trends partly led to the lack of widespread trends in spring and autumn carbon fluxes. Our findings have significant implications for understanding the responses of phenology to climate change and the climate-carbon feedbacks.}, }
@article {pmid31160333, year = {2019}, author = {Wight, J and Middleton, J}, title = {Climate change: the greatest public health threat of the century.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {365}, number = {}, pages = {l2371}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l2371}, pmid = {31160333}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid31160324, year = {2019}, author = {Shin, GY}, title = {Climate change: overpopulation is the elephant in the room.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {365}, number = {}, pages = {l2373}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l2373}, pmid = {31160324}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; Population Density ; }, }
@article {pmid31160114, year = {2019}, author = {Coselli, JS}, title = {Commentary: Despite global warming, frozen has its place.}, journal = {The Journal of thoracic and cardiovascular surgery}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtcvs.2019.04.049}, pmid = {31160114}, issn = {1097-685X}, }
@article {pmid31158686, year = {2019}, author = {Dittrich, R and Butler, A and Ball, T and Wreford, A and Moran, D}, title = {Making real options analysis more accessible for climate change adaptation. An application to afforestation as a flood management measure in the Scottish Borders.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {245}, number = {}, pages = {338-347}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.05.077}, pmid = {31158686}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change uncertainty makes decisions for adaptation investments challenging, in particular when long time horizons and large irreversible upfront costs are involved. Often the costs will be immediate and clear, but the benefits may be uncertain and only occur in the distant future. Robust decision-making methods such as real options analysis (ROA) handle uncertainty better and are therefore useful to guide decision-making for climate change adaptation. ROA allows for learning about climate change by developing flexible strategies that can be adjusted over time. Practical examples of ROA to climate change adaptation are still relatively limited and tend to be complex. We propose an application that makes ROA more accessible to policy-makers by using the user-friendly and freely available UK climate data of the UKCP09 weather generator, which provides projections of future rainfall, deriving transition probabilities for the ROA in a straightforward way and demonstrating how the analysis can be implemented in spreadsheet format using backward induction. The application is to afforestation as a natural flood management measure (NFM) in a rural catchment in Scotland. The applicability of ROA to broadleaf afforestation as a NFM has not been previously investigated. Different ROA strategies are presented based on varying the damage cost from flooding, fixed cost and the discount rate. The results illustrate how learning can lower the overall investment cost of climate change adaptation but also that the cost structure of afforestation does not lend itself very well to ROA.}, }
@article {pmid31157907, year = {2019}, author = {Neal-Boylan, L and Breakey, S and Nicholas, PK}, title = {Integrating Climate Change Topics Into Nursing Curricula.}, journal = {The Journal of nursing education}, volume = {58}, number = {6}, pages = {364-368}, doi = {10.3928/01484834-20190521-09}, pmid = {31157907}, issn = {1938-2421}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Health professionals have a key role in addressing the health impacts of climate change at several levels: direct patient care, client and community education, health professions education, and through advocacy and health policy development.<br><br>METHOD: Recognizing that nurses are the first line in health education, nursing faculty at the MGH Institute of Health Professions developed the first nurse-led Center for Climate Change, Climate Justice and Health (CCCCJH).<br><br>RESULTS: A steering committee of nurse climate change scholars and interested faculty developed a mission, vision, core values, and a strategic plan for the CCCCJH and are working on integrating climate change topics into nursing curricula at all levels.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Nurses are in the ideal position to lead the way to increase awareness among health professionals and students about the health impacts of climate change. Curricular integration of climate change topics at all levels will prepare our students to meet the needs and challenges of the future. [J Nurs Educ. 2019;58(6):364-368.].}, }
@article {pmid31156493, year = {2019}, author = {Lehman, B and Thompson, J and Davis, S and Carlson, JM}, title = {Affective Images of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {960}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00960}, pmid = {31156493}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate change is not only a scientific phenomenon, but also a cultural one. Individuals' opinions on climate change are often based on emotion rather than on scientific evidence. Therefore, research into the emotional characteristics of the imagery that the non-expert public find relevant to climate change is important in order to build a database of effective climate change imagery, which can then be used by scientists, policymakers, and practitioners in mobilizing climate adaptation and resilience efforts. To this end, we collected ratings of relevance to climate change as well as emotional arousal and valence on 320 images to assess the relationship between relevance to climate change and the emotional qualities of the image. In addition, participants' environmental beliefs were measured, to investigate the relationship between beliefs and image ratings. The results suggest that images rated highly relevant to climate change are higher in negative emotional valence and emotional arousal. Overall, images were rated as being more relevant to climate change by participants with higher pro-environmental disposition. Critically, we have compiled the mean relevance, valence, and arousal ratings of each of these 320 images into a database that is posted online and freely available (https://affectiveclimateimages.weebly.com; https://www.nmu.edu/affectiveclimateimages) for use in future research on climate change visuals.}, }
@article {pmid31155789, year = {2019}, author = {Isaacs, D}, title = {Climate change: Whose responsibility?.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {55}, number = {6}, pages = {615-616}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.14475}, pmid = {31155789}, issn = {1440-1754}, }
@article {pmid31153070, year = {2019}, author = {Gu, L and Chen, J and Xu, CY and Kim, JS and Chen, H and Xia, J and Zhang, L}, title = {The contribution of internal climate variability to climate change impacts on droughts.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {684}, number = {}, pages = {229-246}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.345}, pmid = {31153070}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The assessment of climate change impacts is usually done by calculating the change in drought conditions between future and historical periods by using multiple climate model simulations. However, this approach usually focuses on anthropogenic climate changes (ACCs) while ignoring the internal climate variability (ICV) caused by the chaotic nature of the climate system. Recent studies have shown that ICV plays an important role in the projected future climate change. To evaluate that role, this study quantifies the contribution of ICV to climate change impacts on regional droughts by using the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the fraction of standard deviation (FOSD) as metrics for China. The internal climate variability or noise (i.e. ICV) is estimated as the inter-member variability of two climate models' large-member ensembles; the signal (i.e. ACC) and the climate model uncertainty (or inter-model uncertainty, IMU) are estimated as the ensemble mean and inter-model variability of 29 global climate models, respectively. The drought conditions are characterized by drought frequency, duration and severity, which are quantified by using the theory of run based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results show that deteriorated drought conditions induced by ACCs are projected to occur over China. From the perspective of the SNR, the ICV impacts are less significant compared to the ACC impacts for drought metrics. Remarkable spatial variations of SNRs for future drought metrics are found, with values varying from 0.001 to exceeding 10. In terms of the FOSD, ICV contributions relative to the IMU are large, as FOSDs are >1 for around 22% grids. These results imply the significance of taking into account the impacts of ICV in drought assessment, any study ignores the influence of ICV may be biased.}, }
@article {pmid31152499, year = {2019}, author = {Asch, RG and Stock, CA and Sarmiento, JL}, title = {Climate change impacts on mismatches between phytoplankton blooms and fish spawning phenology.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {8}, pages = {2544-2559}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14650}, pmid = {31152499}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Substantial interannual variability in marine fish recruitment (i.e., the number of young fish entering a fishery each year) has been hypothesized to be related to whether the timing of fish spawning matches that of seasonal plankton blooms. Environmental processes that control the phenology of blooms, such as stratification, may differ from those that influence fish spawning, such as temperature-linked reproductive maturation. These different controlling mechanisms could cause the timing of these events to diverge under climate change with negative consequences for fisheries. We use an earth system model to examine the impact of a high-emissions, climate-warming scenario (RCP8.5) on the future spawning time of two classes of temperate, epipelagic fishes: &quot;geographic spawners&quot; whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed geographic features (e.g., rivers, estuaries, reefs) and &quot;environmental spawners&quot; whose spawning grounds move responding to variations in environmental properties, such as temperature. By the century's end, our results indicate that projections of increased stratification cause spring and summer phytoplankton blooms to start 16 days earlier on average (±0.05 days SE) at latitudes >40°N. The temperature-linked phenology of geographic spawners changes at a rate twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing these fishes to spawn before the bloom starts across >85% of this region. &quot;Extreme events,&quot; defined here as seasonal mismatches >30 days that could lead to fish recruitment failure, increase 10-fold for geographic spawners in many areas under the RCP8.5 scenario. Mismatches between environmental spawners and phytoplankton were smaller and less widespread, although sizable mismatches still emerged in some regions. This indicates that range shifts undertaken by environmental spawners may increase the resiliency of fishes to climate change impacts associated with phenological mismatches, potentially buffering against declines in larval fish survival, recruitment, and fisheries. Our model results are supported by empirical evidence from ecosystems with multidecadal observations of both fish and phytoplankton phenology.}, }
@article {pmid31152424, year = {2019}, author = {Fei, L and Meijun, Z and Min, H}, title = {Climate change in different geographical units and its impact on land production potential: a case study of Shaanxi Province, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {22}, pages = {22273-22283}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-05503-5}, pmid = {31152424}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2018JQ4024//Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China/ ; 41701094//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Land production potential (LPP) was the maximum grain yield in one year that can be produced by land under the limitations of climate conditions and in the absence of pests and diseases and other factors. Whether climate change was increasing or reducing the LPP in a given region was uncertain. Therefore, Shaanxi Province was selected to analyze the regional differences in climate change and its effects on LPP change and to identify the main climatic factor restricting LPP in different regions by combining Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) model with the Geodetector model. Results showed that the temperature in Shaanxi Province showed an upward trend in 2000-2015; the rise in temperature to the north of Qinling Mountain (QM) was less than that to the south of QM. However, rising temperature had a yield-improving effect to the north of QM and a yield-decreasing effect to the south of QM. There was a precipitation increase in Arid Sandy (AS) area and Loess Plateau (LP), and the precipitation reduced in all other geographical units. The increase in LPP of Shaanxi mostly was caused by increasing precipitation. However, precipitation was declined and reduced LPP to the south of QM; that is, precipitation decline was the dominated climatic factor for LPP decrease in QM, Hanjiang Basin (HB), and Daba Mountain (DM). To the north of QM, LPP in AS, LP, and Guanzhong Plain (GP) both dramatically increased, mainly improved by rising temperature, increasing precipitation, and rising temperature, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid31150427, year = {2019}, author = {Ray, DK and West, PC and Clark, M and Gerber, JS and Prishchepov, AV and Chatterjee, S}, title = {Climate change has likely already affected global food production.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0217148}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0217148}, pmid = {31150427}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Crop yields are projected to decrease under future climate conditions, and recent research suggests that yields have already been impacted. However, current impacts on a diversity of crops subnationally and implications for food security remains unclear. Here, we constructed linear regression relationships using weather and reported crop data to assess the potential impact of observed climate change on the yields of the top ten global crops-barley, cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane and wheat at ~20,000 political units. We find that the impact of global climate change on yields of different crops from climate trends ranged from -13.4% (oil palm) to 3.5% (soybean). Our results show that impacts are mostly negative in Europe, Southern Africa and Australia but generally positive in Latin America. Impacts in Asia and Northern and Central America are mixed. This has likely led to ~1% average reduction (-3.5 X 1013 kcal/year) in consumable food calories in these ten crops. In nearly half of food insecure countries, estimated caloric availability decreased. Our results suggest that climate change has already affected global food production.}, }
@article {pmid31148381, year = {2019}, author = {Zou, Y and Ge, X and Guo, S and Zhou, Y and Wang, T and Zong, S}, title = {Impacts of climate change and host plant availability on the global distribution of Brontispa longissima (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae).}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.5503}, pmid = {31148381}, issn = {1526-4998}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The coconut hispine beetle Brontispa longissima Gestro (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) is one of the most serious pests of the coconut palm, Cocos nucifera L. (Arecales: Arecaceae) and other palms. The invasion of B. longissima causes major economic and ecological losses worldwide. In this study, the impacts of climate change on the risk of spread were evaluated. CLIMEX was used to project its global potential distribution based on historical climate data (1987-2016) and simulated future climate data (2071-2100).<br><br>RESULTS: The distribution of B. longissima included each continent under historical and future climate conditions. However, climate suitability was predicted to decrease in most tropical and subtropical regions under a climate change scenario. Temperature was a more important determinant of the climatic suitability of the pest than relative humidity or precipitation. The availability of host plants (Arecaceae) only had a slight impact on climate suitability in some regions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The projected potential distribution of B. longissima will help to determine the impacts of climate change and will provide supportive information for the development of management strategies to reduce future economic and ecological losses. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid31148300, year = {2019}, author = {Amundrud, SL and Srivastava, DS}, title = {Disentangling how climate change can affect an aquatic food web by combining multiple experimental approaches.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14717}, pmid = {31148300}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, abstract = {Predicting the biological effects of climate change presents major challenges due to the interplay of potential biotic and abiotic mechanisms. Climate change can create unexpected outcomes by altering species interactions, and uncertainty over the ability of species to develop in situ tolerance or track environmental change further hampers meaningful predictions. As multiple climatic variables shift in concert, their potential interactions further complicate ecosystem responses. Despite awareness of these complexities, we still lack controlled experiments that manipulate multiple climatic stressors, species interactions, and prior exposure of species to future climatic conditions. Particularly studies that address how changes in water availability interact with other climatic stressors to affect aquatic ecosystems are still rare. Using aquatic insect communities of Neotropical tank bromeliads, we combined controlled manipulations of drought length and species interactions with a space-for-time transplant (lower elevations represent future climate) and a common garden approach. Manipulating drought length and experiment elevation revealed that adverse effects of drought were amplified at the warmer location, highlighting the potential of climatic stressors to synergistically affect communities. Manipulating the presence of omnivorous tipulid larvae showed that negative interactions from tipulids, presumably from predation, arose under drought, and were stronger at the warmer location, stressing the importance of species interactions in mediating community responses to climate change. The common garden treatments revealed that prior community exposure to potential future climatic conditions did not affect the outcome. In this powerful experiment, we demonstrated how complexities arise from the interplay of biotic and abiotic mechanisms of climate change. We stress that single species can steer ecological outcomes, and suggest that focusing on such disproportionately influential species may improve attempts at making meaningful predictions of climate change impacts on food webs.}, }
@article {pmid31141628, year = {2019}, author = {Salas, RN and Jacobs, W and Perera, F}, title = {The Case of Juliana v. U.S. - Children and the Health Burdens of Climate Change.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {380}, number = {22}, pages = {2085-2087}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp1905504}, pmid = {31141628}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Child ; Civil Rights/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Climate Change/mortality ; Global Warming/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; Infant ; Physician's Role ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/etiology ; United States/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid31141533, year = {2019}, author = {Silva, JLSE and Cruz-Neto, O and Peres, CA and Tabarelli, M and Lopes, AV}, title = {Climate change will reduce suitable Caatinga dry forest habitat for endemic plants with disproportionate impacts on specialized reproductive strategies.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0217028}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0217028}, pmid = {31141533}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Global climate change alters the dynamic of natural ecosystems and directly affects species distributions, persistence and diversity. The impacts of climate change may lead to dramatic changes in biotic interactions, such as pollination and seed dispersal. Life history traits are extremely important to consider the vulnerability of a species to climate change, producing more robust models than those based primarily on species distributions. Here, we hypothesized that rising temperatures and aridity will reduce suitable habitats for the endemic flora of the Caatinga, the most diverse dry tropical forest on Earth. Specifically, species with specialized reproductive traits (e.g. vertebrate pollination, biotic dispersal, obligatory cross-pollination) should be more affected by climate change than those with generalist traits. We performed two ecological niche models (current and future) to simulate the effects of climate change on the distribution area of endemic species in relation to life-history traits. We used the MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 models for both intermediate (RCP4.5) and highest predicted (RCP8.5) GHG emission scenarios, with a resolution of 30' (~1 km2). Habitat with high occurrence probability (>80%) of endemic species will be reduced (up to ~10% for trees, ~13% for non-arboreous, 10-28% for species with any pollination/reproductive system), with the greatest reductions for species with specialized reproductive traits. In addition, the likely concentration of endemic plants in the extreme northeastern portion of the Caatinga, in more mesic areas, coincides with the currently most human-modified areas of the ecosystem, which combined with climate change will further contract suitable habitats of endemic species. In conclusion, plant species endemic to the Caatinga are highly vulnerable to even conservative scenarios of future climate change and may lose much of their climatic envelopes. New protected areas should be located in the northeastern portion of the Caatinga, which hosts a more favorable climate, but is currently exposed to escalating agricultural intensification.}, }
@article {pmid31139439, year = {2019}, author = {Muttarak, R and Dimitrova, A}, title = {Climate change and seasonal floods: potential long-term nutritional consequences for children in Kerala, India.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {e001215}, doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2018-001215}, pmid = {31139439}, issn = {2059-7908}, }
@article {pmid31139411, year = {2019}, author = {Padilla, P and Ducret, V and Bonneaud, C and Courant, J and Herrel, A}, title = {Acclimation temperature effects on locomotor traits in adult aquatic anurans (X. tropicalis and X. laevis) from different latitudes: possible implications for climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coz019}, doi = {10.1093/conphys/coz019}, pmid = {31139411}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Climate change is in part responsible for the 70% decline in amphibian species numbers worldwide. Although temperature is expected to impact whole-organism performance in ectotherms, reversible thermal acclimation has been suggested as a mechanism that may buffer responses to abrupt temperature changes. Here, we test for an effect of acclimation on locomotor performance traits (jump force and stamina) in adults of two predominantly aquatic and closely related frog species from different climatic regions, Xenopus tropicalis (tropical) and Xenopus laevis (temperate). We find significant effects of acclimation temperature on exertion capacity and for jump force in X. tropicalis but no effect of acclimation temperature on burst performance in X. laevis. Our results suggest that the two locomotor performance traits measured are differentially impacted by acclimation temperature in X. tropicalis. Our results further support the hypothesis that lower-latitude ectotherms might have greater acclimation capacity than high-latitude ones. Finally, our results highlight the importance of investigating multiple performance traits when evaluating how animals may cope with changes in temperature. Further work is required to evaluate the potential for acclimation in mitigating the negative impacts of climate change on amphibian populations.}, }
@article {pmid31139199, year = {2019}, author = {Dahal, K and Li, XQ and Tai, H and Creelman, A and Bizimungu, B}, title = {Improving Potato Stress Tolerance and Tuber Yield Under a Climate Change Scenario - A Current Overview.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {563}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00563}, pmid = {31139199}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Global climate change in the form of extreme heat and drought poses a major challenge to sustainable crop production by negatively affecting plant performance and crop yield. Such negative impact on crop yield is likely to be aggravated in future because continued greenhouse gas emissions will cause further rise in temperature leading to increased evapo-transpiration and drought severity, soil salinity as well as insect and disease threats. This has raised a major challenge for plant scientists on securing global food demand, which urges an immediate need to enhance the current yield of major food crops by two-fold to feed the increasing population. As a fourth major food crop, enhancing potato productivity is important for food security of an increasing population. However, potato plant is highly prone to high temperature, drought, soil salinity, as well as insect and diseases. In order to maintain a sustainable potato production, we must adapt our cultivation practices and develop stress tolerant potato cultivars that are appropriately engineered for changing environment. Yet the lack of data on the underlying mechanisms of potato plant resistance to abiotic and biotic stress and the ability to predict future outcomes constitutes a major knowledge gap. It is a challenge for plant scientists to pinpoint means of improving tuber yield under increasing CO2, high temperature and drought stress including the changing patterns of pest and pathogen infestations. Understanding stress-related physiological, biochemical and molecular processes is crucial to develop screening procedures for selecting crop cultivars that can better adapt to changing growth conditions. Elucidation of such mechanism may offer new insights into the identification of specific characteristics that may be useful in breeding new cultivars aimed at maintaining or even enhancing potato yield under changing climate. This paper discusses the recent progress on the mechanism by which potato plants initially sense the changes in their surrounding CO2, temperature, water status, soil salinity and consequently respond to these changes at the molecular, biochemical and physiological levels. We suggest that future research needs to be concentrated on the identification and characterization of signaling molecules and target genes regulating stress tolerance and crop yield potential.}, }
@article {pmid31134598, year = {2019}, author = {Yao, Y and Tseng, YS}, title = {[Health Promotion and Emergency Medical Care for All Age Groups Under Conditions of Climate Change].}, journal = {Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {29-34}, doi = {10.6224/JN.201906_66(3).05}, pmid = {31134598}, issn = {0047-262X}, mesh = {Age Factors ; *Climate Change ; *Emergency Medical Services ; *Health Promotion ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts on the ecosystem services that people rely on, such as water, air, and agricultural products. The quality and quantity of various ecosystem services may be diminished under conditions of extreme climate change. Therefore, the effects of climate change may be expected to threaten people's health and survival. The concept of health promotion includes attention to the environment and emphasizes balance between nature and manmade structures. In addition, health promotion practices and actions in response to climate change emphasize multidisciplinary cooperation and focus on health inequality and vulnerable populations. Therefore, health promotion professionals must have sufficient professional competence in order to manage the multifaceted health impacts of climate change. The purpose of this article is to review the literature on health promotion and emergency medical care under conditions of climate change. Examples are provided to delineate the biological, psychological, social, and spiritual effects of climate change. The results of this literature review may provide community-based health promotion and emergency medical services guidance for further development and improvements. Healthcare professionals are expected to play a central role in managing the impact of climate change in order to achieve health for all.}, }
@article {pmid31134596, year = {2019}, author = {Wu, CD}, title = {[Application of Geospatial Information Technologies in Assessing Changes in Regional Health Risks Related to Climate Change].}, journal = {Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {14-22}, doi = {10.6224/JN.201906_66(3).03}, pmid = {31134596}, issn = {0047-262X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Geographic Information Systems ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Taiwan ; }, abstract = {Changes in climate and global warming trends impact the ecological balance as well as human health. The recent development of geospatial information technologies such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing provides useful tools to assess the impacts of climate changes on human health over large areas. This article aimed to conduct a literature review related to the application of geospatial information technologies in order to assess climate-change-related health risks in Taiwan, with primary outcomes of interest including physiological and mental health and infectious diseases. Three environmental factors, including temperature, precipitation, and air pollution, and their impacts on human health were considered. Comments were raised for future studies in Taiwan on this subject area. Among the hundred papers reviewed, 28 were related to the target topic, and air pollution and fine particle studies were the focus of most of these 28 papers. Studies related to extreme temperature indicted growing concern with this issue. However, limited research was found related to precipitation and environmental greenness. Therefore, future studies should pay greater attention to these two environmental issues. We hope that the findings of this literature review will encourage more researchers to investigate this subject.}, }
@article {pmid31134595, year = {2019}, author = {Wu, PC}, title = {[Adaptation to Climate Change: Regional Revitalization and Community Health].}, journal = {Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {6-13}, doi = {10.6224/JN.201906_66(3).02}, pmid = {31134595}, issn = {0047-262X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published &quot;The Adaptation Gap Report 2018&quot; in December 2018 to promote adaptation to global climate change in the realm of public health. This report notes that we are still far from being able to cope with the impacts that many scientists are predicting. In addition, this report calls on countries to construct the Climate Resilience of Health System, which is a multidisciplinary approach to building the capacity necessary to prepare for and adapt to extreme weather. Strategies for adaptation require not only top-down integration from national and regional governments but also bottom-up participation from communities and individuals. This article aims to elucidate the concept of community-based adaptation to climate change and presents applications of this concept. Because the government is promoting the national policy of &quot;Regional Revitalization&quot;, the sustainable community may be built if this policy takes into account adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31134594, year = {2019}, author = {Huang, CL}, title = {[Environmental Health and Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change].}, journal = {Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {4-5}, doi = {10.6224/JN.201906_66(3).01}, pmid = {31134594}, issn = {0047-262X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Education, Nursing ; Environmental Health/*education ; Humans ; Public Health Nursing ; *Public Policy ; Sustainable Development ; Taiwan ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {The United Nation's 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are an urgent call to all countries for action to combat climate change and its impacts (United Nations, 2015). In response, Taiwan's highest national body, the Executive Yuan, has designated health as one of eight primary areas of threats and challenges in the policy document &quot;Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change in Taiwan&quot;. Further, the Ministry of Education has been promoting climate-change adaptation education since 2012 and, in 2016, the Teaching Alliance was established to promote the integration of climate change issues into public education curricula as well as resource sharing and multidisciplinary collaboration (Ministry of Education, 2019). The focus of nursing on primary healthcare and community care makes nursing professionals critical to successfully attaining UN SDGs (Shmian, 2016). In addition, the environmental health component of nursing education addresses core global health and public health competences directly (Clark, Raffray, Hendricks, &amp; Gagnon, 2016). The American Nurses Association (2013) includes environmental health as one of the eleven standards of professional performance for public health nursing. This column invites Teaching Alliance educators to share their experiences in multidisciplinary professional, teaching, and practice environments in articles that hopefully enhance readers' knowledge of adaptation strategies and of the sustainable development of public health under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31133941, year = {2019}, author = {Böhm, G and Pfister, HR and Salway, A and Fløttum, K}, title = {Remembering and Communicating Climate Change Narratives - The Influence of World Views on Selective Recollection.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1026}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2019.01026}, pmid = {31133941}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {We examine how people remember stories about climate change and how they communicate these stories to others. Drawing on theories of reconstructive memory and cultural theory, we assume that recollection is systematically affected by an individual's world view as well as by the world view of the target audience. In an experimental study with a Norwegian representative sample (N = 266), participants read a story about three politicians, in which each protagonist was described as holding a specific world view and as trying to tackle climate change with a corresponding strategy (individualistic/free market oriented, hierarchical/technology-oriented, or egalitarian/sustainability-oriented). After 1 day and then after 1 week, participants were asked to retell the story as if to somebody who was characterized as being either an individualist, a hierarchist, or an egalitarian; in addition, a neutral recall control condition without a specified audience was included. Participants' own world view was assessed and they were classified as endorsing individualism, or hierarchism, or egalitarianism. We hypothesized that retellings would be selectively reconstructed according to the world view of the participant, as well as tuned to the audience's world view. We assessed the cognitive structure of the recollected story, and, using methods from computational text analysis, we computed similarities among retellings and the original narrative, and among retellings and world views. Results suggest that (i) retellings become less accurate over time, (ii) retelling to an audience with an explicit world view leads to more strongly filtered retellings than recalling without a specified audience, but the filter operates in a non-specific manner with respect to world views, (iii) the cognitive structure of the recollected story shows small but systematic differences concerning the link between story problem and solution as a function of the participant's and the audience's world view. No interaction was found between the world view of the participant and that of the audience. Results emphasize the role of world views in communicating climate change, and might help to better understand phenomena such as polarization and echo chamber effects.}, }
@article {pmid31131789, year = {2019}, author = {Chersich, M}, title = {Will global warming undo the hard-won gains of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV?.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {109}, number = {5}, pages = {287-288}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2019.v109i5.13988}, pmid = {31131789}, issn = {2078-5135}, }
@article {pmid31130141, year = {2019}, author = {Wilcox, BA and Echaubard, P and de Garine-Wichatitsky, M and Ramirez, B}, title = {Vector-borne disease and climate change adaptation in African dryland social-ecological systems.}, journal = {Infectious diseases of poverty}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {36}, doi = {10.1186/s40249-019-0539-3}, pmid = {31130141}, issn = {2049-9957}, support = {001//World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; *Desert Climate ; Disease Vectors ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/parasitology ; Parasitic Diseases/*prevention &amp; control/*transmission ; Risk Factors ; Rural Population ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Drylands, which are among the biosphere's most naturally limiting and environmentally variable ecosystems, constitute three-quarters of the African continent. As a result, environmental sustainability and human development along with vector-borne disease (VBD) control historically have been especially challenging in Africa, particularly in the sub-Saharan and Sahelian drylands. Here, the VBD burden, food insecurity, environmental degradation, and social vulnerability are particularly severe. Changing climate can exacerbate the legion of environmental health threats in Africa, the social dimensions of which are now part of the international development agenda. Accordingly, the need to better understand the dynamics and complex coupling of populations and environments as exemplified by drylands is increasingly recognized as critical to the design of more sustainable interventions.<br><br>MAIN BODY: This scoping review examines the challenge of vector-borne disease control in drylands with a focus on Africa, and the dramatic, ongoing environmental and social changes taking place. Dryland societies persisted and even flourished in the past despite changing climates, extreme and unpredictable weather, and marginal conditions for agriculture. Yet intrusive forces largely out of the control of traditional dryland societies, along with the negative impacts of globalization, have contributed to the erosion of dryland's cultural and natural resources. This has led to the loss of resilience underlying the adaptive capacity formerly widely exhibited among dryland societies. A growing body of evidence from studies of environmental and natural resource management demonstrates how, in light of dryland system's inherent complexity, these factors and top-down interventions can impede sustainable development and vector-borne disease control. Strengthening adaptive capacity through community-based, participatory methods that build on local knowledge and are tailored to local ecological conditions, hold the best promise of reversing current trends.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A significant opportunity exists to simultaneously address the increasing threat of vector-borne diseases and climate change through methods aimed at strengthening adaptive capacity. The integrative framework and methods based on social-ecological systems and resilience theory offers a novel set of tools that allow multiple threats and sources of vulnerability to be addressed in combination. Integration of recent advances in vector borne disease ecology and wider deployment of these tools could help reverse the negative social and environmental trends currently seen in African drylands.}, }
@article {pmid31129549, year = {2019}, author = {Haque, U and da Silva, PF and Devoli, G and Pilz, J and Zhao, B and Khaloua, A and Wilopo, W and Andersen, P and Lu, P and Lee, J and Yamamoto, T and Keellings, D and Wu, JH and Glass, GE}, title = {The human cost of global warming: Deadly landslides and their triggers (1995-2014).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {673-684}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.415}, pmid = {31129549}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Worldwide, landslides incur catastrophic and significant economic and human losses. Previous studies have characterized the patterns in landslides' fatalities, from all kinds of triggering causes, at a continental or global scale, but they were based on data from periods of <10 years. The research herein presented hypothesizes that climate change associated with extreme rainfall and population distribution is contributing to a higher number of deadly landslides worldwide. This study maps and identified deadly landslides in 128 countries and it encompasses their role, for a 20 years' period from January/1995 to December/2014, considered representative for establishing a relationship between landslides and their meteorological triggers. A database of georeferenced landslides, their date, and casualties' information, duly validated, was implemented. A hot spot analysis for the daily record of landslide locations was performed, as well as a percentile-based approach to evaluate the trend of extreme rainfall events for each occurrence. The relationship between casualty, population distribution, and rainfall was also evaluated. For 20 years, 3876 landslides caused a total of 163,658 deaths and 11,689 injuries globally. They occurred most frequently between June and December in the Northern Hemisphere, and between December and February in the Southern Hemisphere. A significant global rise in the number of deadly landslides and hotspots across the studied period was observed. Analysis of daily rainfall confirmed that more than half of the events were in areas exposed to the risk of extreme rainfall. The relationships established between extreme rainfall, population distribution, seasonality, and landslides provide a useful basis for efforts to model the adverse impacts of extreme rainfall due to climate change and human activities and thus contribute towards a more resilient society.}, }
@article {pmid31129527, year = {2019}, author = {Woodward, A and Baumgartner, J and Ebi, KL and Gao, J and Kinney, PL and Liu, Q}, title = {Population health impacts of China's climate change policies.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {175}, number = {}, pages = {178-185}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.05.020}, pmid = {31129527}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Rapid and wide-ranging reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required to meet the climate targets agreed upon at the 2015 Paris climate conference. There will be significant transition risks for health, livelihoods, and ecosystems associated with large-scale mitigation, but also opportunities. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts, positive and negative, of climate policies on population health in China. We review the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) that China took to the Paris meeting, link commitments in the INDC to national planning documents relevant to environment and health, and search the literature for Chinese publications on health trade-offs and synergies. Synergies are evident in the measures taken to reduce local air pollution in China: controls on coal burning have materially improved local air quality and benefited health. But there may be risks to health also, depending on how policies are implemented and what safeguards are provided. To date most assessments of the health impacts of climate policies in China have been modelling studies. We recommend work of this kind is complemented by observational research to identify unexpected impacts and vulnerabilities. It will become even more important to undertake this work as emission reductions accelerate to meet the Paris climate targets.}, }
@article {pmid31129137, year = {2019}, author = {Rickert, B and van den Berg, H and Bekure, K and Girma, S and de Roda Husman, AM}, title = {Including aspects of climate change into water safety planning: Literature review of global experience and case studies from Ethiopian urban supplies.}, journal = {International journal of hygiene and environmental health}, volume = {222}, number = {5}, pages = {744-755}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijheh.2019.05.007}, pmid = {31129137}, issn = {1618-131X}, abstract = {In recent years, the water safety plan approach has been extended towards climate-resilient water safety planning. This happened in response to increasing insight into impacts of climate on drinking-water and required adaptation to anticipated climate change. Literature was reviewed for published guidance and case examples, documenting how to consider climate in water safety planning to support future uptake. Climate-resilient water safety plans were piloted within a project in the water supplies of Addis Ababa and Adama, Ethiopia. Case examples have been published in four of six WHO regions with a focus on urban supplies. Integration of climate aspects focused mostly on the steps of establishing the team, system description, hazard analysis and risk assessment, improvement planning and development of management procedures. While the traditional framework focuses on drinking-water quality, considering climate change augments aspects of water quantity. Therefore, other factors affecting water quantity such as population development and demand of other sectors need to be considered as well. Local climate information and tools should be employed as a significant success factor for future uptake. Such information should be incorporated as it becomes available, and may - depending on the setting - be incrementally integrated into existing water safety plans or used to develop new ones.}, }
@article {pmid31125746, year = {2019}, author = {Onozuka, D and Gasparrini, A and Sera, F and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y}, title = {Future projections of temperature-related excess out-of-hospital cardiac arrest under climate change scenarios in Japan.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {333-339}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.196}, pmid = {31125746}, issn = {1879-1026}, support = {MR/M022625/1//Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cold Temperature/*adverse effects ; *Forecasting ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Japan ; Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest/*epidemiology/etiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Recent studies have reported associations between global climate change and mortality. However, future projections of temperature-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) have not been thoroughly evaluated. Thus, we aimed to project temperature-related morbidity for OHCA concomitant with climate change.<br><br>METHODS: We collected national registry data on all OHCA cases reported in 2005-2015 from all 47 Japanese prefectures. We used a two-stage time series analysis to estimate temperature-OHCA relationships. Time series of current and future daily mean temperature variations were constructed according to four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using five general circulation models. We projected excess morbidity for heat and cold and the net change in 1990-2099 for each climate change scenario using the assumption of no adaptation or population changes.<br><br>RESULTS: During the study period, 739,717 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported. Net decreases in temperature-related excess morbidity were observed under higher emission scenarios. The net change in 2090-2099 compared with 2010-2019 was -0.8% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: -1.9, 0.1) for a mild emission scenario (RCP2.6), -2.6% (95% eCI: -4.4, -0.8) for a stabilization scenario (RCP4.5), -3.4% (95% eCI: -5.7, -1.0) for a stabilization scenario (RCP6.0), and - 4.2% (95% eCI: -8.3, -0.1) for an extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that Japan is projected to experience a substantial net reduction in OHCAs in higher-emission scenarios. The decrease in risk is limited to a specific morbidity cause, and a broader assessment within climate change scenarios should consider other direct and indirect impacts.}, }
@article {pmid31125741, year = {2019}, author = {Areia, NP and Intrigliolo, D and Tavares, A and Mendes, JM and Sequeira, MD}, title = {The role of media between expert and lay knowledge: A study of Iberian media coverage on climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {291-300}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.191}, pmid = {31125741}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Individuals play a crucial role in combating climate change, but high levels of acknowledgment and engagement are needed to lead to changes toward more sustainable behaviours. In this aspect, media plays an important role in shaping individuals' awareness about climate change. This study aims to analyse Iberian media coverage about climate change to further discuss its influence on the public's engagement with the subject. A total of 449 news were collected from Iberian newspapers. Their characteristics were analysed through quantitative content analysis. Data shows important journalistic bias toward a national framing, mainly focusing on drought and its impact on agriculture. The debate is focused on technological and political discourses. The gaps found on the Iberian media coverage may contribute to public's low levels of acknowledgement and engagement, not enhancing the possibility of change in individuals' behaviours for more sustainable actions.}, }
@article {pmid31121402, year = {2019}, author = {Samah, AA and Shaffril, HAM and Fadzil, MF}, title = {Comparing adaptation ability towards climate change impacts between the youth and the older fishermen.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {681}, number = {}, pages = {524-532}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.089}, pmid = {31121402}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Fisheries/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Malaysia ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {In recent years, a considerable amount of studies published locally which focused on the influence of age on climate change ability. Accordingly, this has driven the present study to achieve its main objective which is to compare the adaptation ability between youth and older fishermen. The current research is quantitative in nature; hence, a survey was conducted on a total of 259 youth and older fishermen residing in different states of Malaysia, namely Pulau Pinang, Terengganu, Johor, and Kedah. The present study managed to conclude a unique and important result which stated that youth and older fishermen within the context of Malaysia have an equally strong adaptation ability. In regard to this matter, a number of recommendations were presented at the end of this paper with the hope that it can act as a basis for future scholars to conduct more climate change related studies.}, }
@article {pmid31121353, year = {2019}, author = {Green, FB and East, AG and Salice, CJ}, title = {Will temperature increases associated with climate change potentiate toxicity of environmentally relevant concentrations of chloride on larval green frogs (Lithobates clamitans)?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {282-290}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.018}, pmid = {31121353}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Chlorides/*toxicity ; Climate Change ; Dose-Response Relationship, Drug ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Larva/drug effects/growth &amp; development ; Maryland ; Rana clamitans/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Toxicity Tests, Subchronic ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*toxicity ; }, abstract = {An important challenge in amphibian ecotoxicology and conservation is that amphibian toxicity tests are usually focused on a single chemical while populations experience multiple, simultaneous stressors. For example, about 14 million tons of road de-icing salts are used each year in North America with NaCl accounting for 98% of total salt use and, hence, elevated chloride is an important environmental stressor to aquatic organisms, including amphibians. As well, higher temperature as a result of climate change is becoming an increasingly important environmental stressor. There are no data on the combined effects of chloride and temperature on amphibians hinders conservation efforts. We conducted field studies to characterize chloride concentrations and water temperatures in known amphibian breeding habitats and performed toxicity tests to explore impacts of these two stressors on a common anuran, the green frog (Lithobates clamitans). A 96-hour acute toxicity test was conducted to first determine a chloride LC50 (2587.5 mg Cl-/L) at a single, neutral temperature, which was used to inform the treatment levels of the sub-chronic test, which also included a temperature range. In the sub-chronic study, green frog larvae were exposed to three temperatures (18, 22, and 25 °C), and four concentrations of chloride (0, 500, 1000, and 2000 mg Cl-/L) for 35 days. At all temperatures, tadpoles exposed to 2000 mg Cl-/L had significantly higher mortality. While there was no significant effect of temperature alone on mortality, survival of tadpoles was significantly lower at 1000 mg Cl-/L at the two higher temperatures suggesting a potentiation of chloride ion toxicity with increasing temperature. Comparing toxicity results to field measurements of chloride and temperature suggests green frog tadpoles and other species with similar sensitivity are likely negatively affected. Data on additional species and populations would further increase our understanding of how salt and temperature may shape aquatic communities.}, }
@article {pmid31121350, year = {2019}, author = {Häder, DP and Barnes, PW}, title = {Comparing the impacts of climate change on the responses and linkages between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {239-246}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.024}, pmid = {31121350}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Aquatic and terrestrial organisms are being exposed to a number of anthropogenically-induced environmental stresses as a consequence of climate change. In addition, climate change is altering various linkages that exist between ecosystems on land and in water. Here we compare and contrast how climate change is altering aquatic and terrestrial environments and address some of the ways that the organisms in these ecosystems, especially the primary producers, are being affected by climate change factors, including changes in temperature, moisture, atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar UV radiation. Whereas there are some responses to climate change in common between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (e.g., changes in species composition and shifting geographic ranges and distributions), there are also responses that fundamentally differ between these two (e.g., responses to UV radiation). Climate change is also disrupting land-water connections in ways that influence biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions in ways that can modify how aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are affected by climate change and can influence climate change. The effects of climate change on these ecosystems are having wide-ranging effects on ecosystem biodiversity, structure and function and the abilities of these systems to provide essential services.}, }
@article {pmid31120003, year = {2019}, author = {Haniotis, T}, title = {Opinion paper: Beef, climate change and a slice of common sense.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {1785-1787}, doi = {10.1017/S1751731119001101}, pmid = {31120003}, issn = {1751-732X}, }
@article {pmid31119538, year = {2019}, author = {Lin, HC and Chou, LC and Zhang, WH}, title = {Cross-Strait climate change and agricultural product loss.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-05166-2}, pmid = {31119538}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The structure of agricultural industries at Cross-Strait differs as climate change is considered. In fact, its influence on their agriculture and other industries vary when the impact produced by natural disasters due to climate change are faced. To estimate direct and indirect losses caused by natural disasters, this study applies Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) analysis developed by Miller and Blair (2009) to discuss the development among Cross-Strait industries as they face disaster losses. The data sources used in this article are from Lin (2013), Cross-Strait ICIO table, and the statistics of agriculture in the periods 2005-2017 for Taiwan and Mainland China. The main results from our ICIO analysis are as follows: the value-added losses caused by natural disasters mainly involve agriculture, forestry, fishery, wholesale and retail trade, animal feed, and chemical fertilizer industries. These sectors account for 87.4% in Mainland China and 94.6% in Taiwan of total separately.}, }
@article {pmid31118471, year = {2019}, author = {Cazzolla Gatti, R and Callaghan, T and Velichevskaya, A and Dudko, A and Fabbio, L and Battipaglia, G and Liang, J}, title = {Accelerating upward treeline shift in the Altai Mountains under last-century climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {7678}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-44188-1}, pmid = {31118471}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Treeline shift and tree growth often respond to climatic changes and it is critical to identify and quantify their dynamics. Some regions are particularly sensitive to climate change and the Altai Mountains, located in Central and East Asia, are showing unequivocal signs. The mean annual temperature in the area has increased by 1.3-1.7 °C in the last century. As this mountain range has ancient and protected forests on alpine slopes, we focus on determining the treeline structure and dynamics. We integrated in situ fine-scale allometric data with analyses from dendrochronological samples, high-resolution 3D drone photos and new satellite images to study the dynamics and underlying causal mechanisms of any treeline movement and growth changes in a remote preserved forest at the Aktru Research Station in the Altai Mountain. We show that temperature increase has a negative effect on mountain tree growth. In contrast, only younger trees grow at higher altitudes and we document a relatively fast upward shift of the treeline. During the last 52 years, treeline moved about 150 m upward and the rate of movement accelerated until recently. Before the 1950s, it never shifted over 2150-2200 m a.s.l. We suggest that a continuous upward expansion of the treeline would be at the expense of meadow and shrub species and radically change this high-mountain ecosystem with its endemic flora. This documented treeline shift represents clear evidence of the increased velocity of climate change during the last century.}, }
@article {pmid31116787, year = {2019}, author = {Zuo, J and Xu, J and Li, W and Yang, D}, title = {Understanding shallow soil moisture variation in the data-scarce area and its relationship with climate change by GLDAS data.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0217020}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0217020}, pmid = {31116787}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Quantitatively evaluating the spatiotemporal variation of soil moisture (SM) and its causes can help us to understand regional eco-hydrological processes. However, the complicated geographical environment and the scarce observation data make it difficult to evaluate SM in Northwest China. Selecting the Tarim River Basin (TRB) as a typical representative of the data-scarce area in Northwest China, we conducted an integrated approach to quantitatively assess the spatiotemporal variation of shallow soil moisture (SSM) and its responses to climate change by gathering the earth system data product. Results show that the low-value of SSM distributes in Taklamakan Desert while the high-value basically distributes in the Pamirs and the southern foothill of Tianshan Mountains, where the land types are mostly forest, grassland, and farmland. Annual average SSM of these three land types present a significant increasing trend during the study period. SM at 0-10 cm of all land types are positively correlated to precipitation in spring and autumn, and SM at 0-10 cm in the forest, grassland, and farmland are positively correlated with temperature in winter. SSM presents in-phase relation with precipitation whereas it presents anti-phase relation with temperature, with the significant resonance periods about 6-8 years and 2-3 years which mainly distribute from 1970s to early 1990s and 1960s respectively. The time lags of SSM relative to temperature change are longer than its lags relative to precipitation change, and the lags vary from different land types.}, }
@article {pmid31113889, year = {2019}, author = {Kovaleski, AP and Baseggio, M}, title = {Is increased corn yield really the silver lining of climate change?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {21}, pages = {10206-10208}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1904487116}, pmid = {31113889}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid31112555, year = {2019}, author = {de Oliveira, UDR and Gomes, PB and Silva Cordeiro, RT and de Lima, GV and Pérez, CD}, title = {Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential habitat of an endangered Brazilian endemic coral: Discussion about deep sea refugia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0211171}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0211171}, pmid = {31112555}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate and environmental conditions are determinant for coral distribution and their very existence. When changes in such conditions occur, their effects on distribution can be predicted through species distribution models, anticipating suitable habitats for the subsistence of species. Mussismilia harttii is one of the most endangered Brazilian endemic reef-building corals, and in increasing risk of extinction. Herein, species distribution models were used to determine the present and future potential habitats for M. harttii. Estimations were made through the maximum entropy approach, predicting suitable habitat losses and gains by the end of the 21st century. For this purpose, species records published in the last 20 years and current and future environmental variables were correlated. The best models were chosen according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and evaluated through the partial ROC (AUCratio), a new approach which uses independent occurrence data. Both approaches showed that the models performed satisfactorily in predicting potential habitat areas for the species. Future projections were made using the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2100, with different levels of greenhouse gas emission. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to model the Future Potential Habitat (FPH) of M. harttii in two different scenarios: stabilization of emissions (RCP 4.5) and increase of emissions (RCP 8.5). According to the results, shallow waters to the south of the study area concentrate most of the current potential habitats for the species. However, in future scenarios, there was a loss of suitable areas in relation to the Current Potential Habitat (RCP 4.5 46% and RCP 8.5 59%), whereas there is a southward shift of the suitable areas. In all scenarios of FPH, the temperature was the variable with the greatest contribution to the models (> 35%), followed by the current velocity (> 33%) and bathymetry (>29%). In contrast, there is an increase of deep (50-75 m) suitable areas FPH scenarios, mainly in the southern portion of its distribution, at Abrolhos Bank (off Espirito Santo State). These deeper sites might serve as refugia for the species in global warming scenarios. Coral communities at such depths would be less susceptible to impacts of climate change on temperature and salinity. However, the deep sea is not free from human impacts and measures to protect deeper ecosystems should be prioritized in environmental policies for Brazilian marine conservation, especially the Abrolhos Bank, due to its importance for M. harttii.}, }
@article {pmid31111639, year = {2019}, author = {Azzurro, E and Sbragaglia, V and Cerri, J and Bariche, M and Bolognini, L and Ben Souissi, J and Busoni, G and Coco, S and Chryssanthi, A and Fanelli, E and Ghanem, R and Garrabou, J and Gianni, F and Grati, F and Kolitari, J and Letterio, G and Lipej, L and Mazzoldi, C and Milone, N and Pannacciulli, F and Pešić, A and Samuel-Rhoads, Y and Saponari, L and Tomanic, J and Eda Topçu, N and Vargiu, G and Moschella, P}, title = {Climate change, biological invasions, and the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes: A large-scale survey based on local ecological knowledge.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {8}, pages = {2779-2792}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14670}, pmid = {31111639}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change and biological invasions are rapidly reshuffling species distribution, restructuring the biological communities of many ecosystems worldwide. Tracking these transformations in the marine environment is crucial, but our understanding of climate change effects and invasive species dynamics is often hampered by the practical challenge of surveying large geographical areas. Here, we focus on the Mediterranean Sea, a hot spot for climate change and biological invasions to investigate recent spatiotemporal changes in fish abundances and distribution. To this end, we accessed the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of small-scale and recreational fishers, reconstructing the dynamics of fish perceived as &quot;new&quot; or increasing in different fishing areas. Over 500 fishers across 95 locations and nine different countries were interviewed, and semiquantitative information on yearly changes in species abundance was collected. Overall, 75 species were mentioned by the respondents, mostly warm-adapted species of both native and exotic origin. Respondents belonging to the same biogeographic sectors described coherent spatial and temporal patterns, and gradients along latitudinal and longitudinal axes were revealed. This information provides a more complete understanding of the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes and it also demonstrates that adequately structured LEK methodology might be applied successfully beyond the local scale, across national borders and jurisdictions. Acknowledging this potential through macroregional coordination could pave the way for future large-scale aggregations of individual observations, increasing our potential for integrated monitoring and conservation planning at the regional or even global level. This might help local communities to better understand, manage, and adapt to the ongoing biotic transformations driven by climate change and biological invaders.}, }
@article {pmid31110687, year = {2019}, author = {Gong, H and Liu, H and Jiao, F and Lin, Z and Xu, X}, title = {Pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise on the future distribution of Spartina alterniflora along the Chinese coast.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {5380-5391}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5129}, pmid = {31110687}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Aim: Global change seriously threatens the salt marsh ecosystem, while it remains unclear how S. will respond to climate change and sea level rise. Here, we investigated interactions among variables and identified the impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and their interactions on the distribution of Spartina alterniflora.<br><br>Location: Northern Chinese coast and Southern Chinese coast.<br><br>Taxon: Spartina alterniflora Loisel.<br><br>Methods: With global sensitivity analysis, we determined interactions among variables and their relative importance to the distribution of S. alterniflora. Integrating the Venn's four-set diagram, we built ecological niche models under current and three future scenarios to identify pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise on the distribution of S. alterniflora.<br><br>Results: Mean diurnal range (Bio02) and Elevation were the two most critical variables controlling the distribution of S. alterniflora on the Chinese coast, and interactions among variables of the northern coast were much greater than that of the southern coast. Habitats change was mainly caused by pure effects of climate change, except habitats reduction on the southern coast. Pure effects of sea level rise were low, but it can influence habitats change through shared and coupling effects from complex interactions with climate change. Interactions of climate change and sea level rise can drive habitats change, and the changed habitats caused by shared and coupling effects were mainly distributed the areas near the landward side.<br><br>Main conclusions: Our research suggests paying attention to interactions among variables when calculating the relative importance of explanatory variables. Identifying pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise for the distribution of S. alterniflora will provide scientific references for assessing the risk of similar coastal species.}, }
@article {pmid31110674, year = {2019}, author = {Jia, SW and Zhang, ML}, title = {Pleistocene climate change and phylogeographic structure of the Gymnocarpos przewalskii (Caryophyllaceae) in the northwest China: Evidence from plastid DNA, ITS sequences, and Microsatellite.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {5219-5235}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5113}, pmid = {31110674}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Northwestern China has a wealth of endemic species, which has been hypothesized to be affected by the complex paleoclimatic and paleogeographic history during Quaternary. In this paper, we used Gymnocarpos przewalskii as a model to address the evolutionary history and current population genetic structure of species in northwestern China. We employed two chloroplast DNA fragments (rps16 and psbB-psbI), one nuclear DNA fragment (ITS), and simple sequence repeat (SSRs) to investigate the spatial genetic pattern of G. przewalskii. High genetic diversity (cpDNA: hS = 0.330, hT = 0.866; ITS: hS = 0.458, hT = 0.872) was identified in almost all populations, and most of the population have private haplotypes. Moreover, multimodal mismatch distributions were observed and estimates of Tajima's D and Fu's FS tests did not identify significantly departures from neutrality, indicating that recent expansion of G. przewalskii was rejected. Thus, we inferred that G. przewalskii survived generally in northwestern China during the Pleistocene. All data together support the genotypes of G. przewalskii into three groups, consistent with their respective geographical distributions in the western regions-Tarim Basin, the central regions-Hami Basin and Hexi Corridor, and the eastern regions-Alxa Desert and Wulate Prairie. Divergence among most lineages of G. przewalskii occurred in the Pleistocene, and the range of potential distributions is associated with glacial cycles. We concluded that climate oscillation during Pleistocene significantly affected the distribution of the species.}, }
@article {pmid31107027, year = {2019}, author = {Luo, X and Liang, Y and He, HS and Huang, C and Zhang, QL}, title = {[Effects of climate change, fire and silvicultural management on ecological resilience of typical cold-temperate forests in China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {1699-1712}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201905.011}, pmid = {31107027}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Fires ; Forestry/*methods ; *Forests ; Taiga ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Ecological resilience is characterized by the recovery capacity of forest ecosystem from a status affected by external disturbance to a stable status, which is one of the important targets for sustainable development of forests. Ecological resilience is sensitive to external factors, such as climate change, forest fire, and silvicutural management at large scales. Understanding the effects of those factors on ecological resilience is important for forest ecosystem management. In this study, we calculated ecological resilience with indicators including forest structure, composition and function. We used a landscape model LANDIS PRO to evaluate the effects of climate change, climate-induced fire, and silvicultural management on ecological resilience in boreal forests. We also evaluated whether the current thinning treatment could be implemented under the scenarios of climate change. The results showed that the initialized stand density and basal area from the year 2000 could represent the real forest landscape in year 2000, with no significant difference between the simulated landscape and the forest inventory data in the year 2010 at landscape scale. The results of simulated fire disturbance were consistent with the results from the field inventories in burned areas. The fire module parameters set adequately represented the current fire regimes in model simulation. The ecological resilience could increase by 15.7%-40.8% at landscape scale when fire intensity increased by 30%, whereas the ecological resilience decreased by 4.4%-24.6% when fire intensity increased by 200%. At the short and medium term, the effects of increased fire on forest ecological resilience were greater than that of climate change. Compared to the current base scenario, forest ecological resilience under B1 climate with fire intensity increased by 30% scenario and A2 climate with fire intensity increased by 200% scenario fluctuated in the ranges of -15.9%-38.9% and -60.4%-34.8% in the whole simulation period at landscape scale. Compared to no harvesting scenario, the current thinning strategy would decrease the ecological resilience at landscape scale under both B1 and A2 scenarios in all simulated periods. Under the scenario of B1 climate with 30% increases of fire intensity, no silvicultural management would be needed in the whole simulation period at landscape scale, whereas medium and high intensity of silvicultural management were suggested under the scenario of A2 climate with 200% increase of fire intensity.}, }
@article {pmid31107005, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, YG and Yuan, FH and Wang, AZ and Wu, JB and Zheng, XB and Yin, H and Guan, X}, title = {[Characteristics of climate change in Changbai Mountain ecological functional area, Northeast China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {1503-1512}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201905.006}, pmid = {31107005}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {We integrated the meteorological records from 36 national weather stations and CN05.1 gridded daily observation dataset to analyze the climate change characteristics of Changbai Mountain eco-functional area. Linear tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall mutation test, cumulative anomaly method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to investigate the temporal and spatial variation of temperature (annual temperature, seasonal temperature, extreme temperature), moisture (annual precipitation, seasonal precipitation, relative humidity), radiation (sunshine duration, sunshine percentage) and wind speed from 1961 to 2016. The results showed that, during 1961-2016, the temperature of this area increased, the radiation and wind speed decreased, and the precipitation varied periodically. Specifically, winter temperature [0.45 ℃·(10 a)-1] and the lowest temperature [0.74 ℃·(10 a)-1] significantly increased. The mean annual wind speed significantly decreased [-0.21 m·s-1·(10 a)-1]. No abrupt climate change was observed. The annual precipitation days decreased considerably [-7.01 d·(10 a)-1], which was different from the climate change pattern of Northeast China. The annual precipitation trend coefficient of this area was 16.06 mm·(10 a)-1 , which could not be simply depicted by increase or decrease in trend. The precipitation change in this area was dominated by periodically patterns, and the period was 26 years and 3 years. Our results would be instructive to the regional ecological assessment, and the research on ecosystem responses to climate change and phenological changes.}, }
@article {pmid31106269, year = {2019}, author = {Bascompte, J and García, MB and Ortega, R and Rezende, EL and Pironon, S}, title = {Mutualistic interactions reshuffle the effects of climate change on plants across the tree of life.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {eaav2539}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aav2539}, pmid = {31106269}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Climatically induced local species extinctions may trigger coextinction cascades, thus driving many more species to extinction than originally predicted by species distribution models. Using seven pollination networks across Europe that include the phylogeny and life history traits of plants, we show a substantial variability across networks in climatically predicted plant extinction-and particularly the subsequent coextinction-rates, with much higher values in Mediterranean than Eurosiberian networks. While geographic location best predicts the probability of a plant species to be driven to extinction by climate change, subsequent coextinctions are best predicted by the local network of interactions. These coextinctions not only increase the total number of plant species being driven to extinction but also add a bias in the way the major taxonomic and functional groups are pruned.}, }
@article {pmid31102688, year = {2019}, author = {Azani, N and Bruneau, A and Wojciechowski, MF and Zarre, S}, title = {Miocene climate change as a driving force for multiple origins of annual species in Astragalus (Fabaceae, Papilionoideae).}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {137}, number = {}, pages = {210-221}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2019.05.008}, pmid = {31102688}, issn = {1095-9513}, abstract = {Astragalus, a highly diverse genus of flowering plants with its highest center of diversity in West Asia, is a classic example of rapid species-level radiation and adaptation to a diversity of habitats throughout the world. We examined the historical biogeography of Astragalus using molecular dating and ancestral area reconstruction to understand how past climate changes, geographical patterns and transition in life history have provoked diversification of Astragalus. Our results suggest that Astragalus probably originated during the middle Miocene in West Asia, underwent rapid diversification, subsequently and repeatedly expanded its range in the Mediterranean region, and later to North America through West Europe. This distribution range was also extended toward central and eastern Asia from the Middle Miocene to Pleistocene. Several climatic and geological processes during the Miocene-Pliocene may be implicated in the diversification of the major Astragalus clades. In particular, the annual lineages, which are important elements in the Mediterranean flora of Africa and Europe and in the deserts of southwest to central Asia, have arisen in response to progressing aridity from the late Miocene onwards (between 8.6 Ma and 2.98 Ma). Diversification rate analyses indicate three rapid and recent diversification events, one at c. 11 Ma in the clade that groups most of the Astragalus s.s. (all except the Ophiocarpus sister lineage), one at c. 5 Ma in the crown group of the Hypoglottis clade, including herbaceous annual and perennial species, and the most recent one at c. 3 Ma in the spiny cushion forming Astracantha clade. Our study highlights the complexity of processes and factors shaping diversifications in Astragalus; a complex interaction among climatic modifications providing opportunities for diversification and likely coincident with the evolution of key morphological and physiological adaptations.}, }
@article {pmid31096661, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, L and Guo, Z and Huang, G and Wang, R}, title = {Water Productivity Evaluation under Multi-GCM Projections of Climate Change in Oases of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16101706}, pmid = {31096661}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {As the second largest inland river basin situated in the middle of the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China, the Heihe River basin (HRB) has been facing a severe water shortage problem, which seriously restricts its green and sustainable development. The evaluation of climate change impact on water productivity inferred by crop yield and actual evapotranspiration is of significant importance for water-saving in agricultural regions. In this study, the multi-model projections of climate change under the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) were used to drive an agro-hydrological model to evaluate the crop water productivity in the middle irrigated oases of the HRB from 2021-2050. Compared with the water productivity simulation based on field experiments during 2012-2015, the projected water productivity in the two typical agricultural areas (Gaotai and Ganzhou) both exhibited an increasing trend in the future 30 years, which was mainly attributed to the significant decrease of the crop water consumption. The water productivity in the Gaotai area under the three RCP scenarios during 2021-2050 increased by 9.2%, 14.3%, and 11.8%, while the water productivity increased by 15.4%, 21.6%, and 19.9% in the Ganzhou area, respectively. The findings can provide useful information on the Hexi Corridor and the Belt and Road to policy-makers and stakeholders for sustainable development of the water-ecosystem-economy system.}, }
@article {pmid31096360, year = {2019}, author = {Lin, B and Zhu, J}, title = {The role of renewable energy technological innovation on climate change: Empirical evidence from China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {659}, number = {}, pages = {1505-1512}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.449}, pmid = {31096360}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {To develop renewable energy as well as promote China's transition to a low-carbon economy, the government needs to pay attention to renewable energy technological innovation (RETI). Using China's provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015, and regarding the CO2 emissions as the proxy of climate change, this paper identifies the relationship between RETI and CO2 emissions as well as seeks to confirm the role of RETI on climate change. The linear regression model confirms that the RETI has a significant negative effect on CO2 emissions. In addition, considering the disparities of energy structure, the impacts of RETI on CO2 emissions may be distinct. We, therefore, construct a panel threshold model by taking into account the distinct effect of RETI under different energy structure. We find that the effect of RETI on curbing CO2 emissions decreases with the rising of coal-dominated energy consumption structure but in contrast, this effect increases with the growing proportion of renewable energy generation. This paper provides new insight into the relationship between technological innovation and climate change. Based on these findings, some relevant policy recommendations are proposed.}, }
@article {pmid31095820, year = {2019}, author = {Porter, JR and Challinor, AJ and Henriksen, CB and Howden, SM and Martre, P and Smith, P}, title = {Invited review: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, agriculture, and food-A case of shifting cultivation and history.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {8}, pages = {2518-2529}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14700}, pmid = {31095820}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs was analyzed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region, and whether adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline, but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom-up and top-down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and nonproduction aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical, and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of not only agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modeling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and nonproduction aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models.}, }
@article {pmid31093053, year = {2018}, author = {Ridel, GM and García, JG and Fernández, MCR and Cala, DC and Rodríguez, YF and Lavastida, JEB}, title = {[The health sector in the face of disasters and climate change in CubaO setor da saúde diante de desastres e mudanças climáticas em Cuba].}, journal = {Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {e24}, doi = {10.26633/RPSP.2018.24}, pmid = {31093053}, issn = {1680-5348}, abstract = {Due to its impact on human health and its capacity to cause damage, disasters are one of the global problems that most concern the international community. However, and in spite of the efforts made by many health systems, the reduction of vulnerabilities and the lack of strategies to avoid or minimize risks have not received enough attention yet. As Cuba is located in an area of permanent danger of disasters, its health sector has accumulated considerable experience in the management of risks and in the assurance of less risky future scenarios, with active participation of the community and a planned and organized process to address the impact of climate change. This paper summarizes some of these experiences and describes the dangers, vulnerabilities, and risks of disasters in Cuba, its Civil Defense System, and planning and organization in the health sector for disaster reduction, as well as the main effects and challenges of climate change in the health system. Lessons learned and good practices support the key role of human resources to reduce vulnerabilities; the greatest challenges are to avoid or minimize risks, to advance research, to train professionals for climate change, and to optimize the organization of health systems and services in the country.}, }
@article {pmid31092905, year = {2019}, author = {Hutchins, DA and Jansson, JK and Remais, JV and Rich, VI and Singh, BK and Trivedi, P}, title = {Climate change microbiology - problems and perspectives.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {391-396}, doi = {10.1038/s41579-019-0178-5}, pmid = {31092905}, issn = {1740-1534}, abstract = {The signs of climate change are undeniable, and the inevitable impact for Earth and all its inhabitants is a serious concern. Ice is melting, sea levels are rising, biodiversity is declining, precipitation has increased, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases are alarmingly high, and extreme weather conditions are becoming increasingly common. But what role do microorganisms have in this global challenge? In this Viewpoint article, several experts in the field discuss the microbial contributions to climate change and consider the effects of global warming, extreme weather, flooding and other consequences of climate change on microbial communities in the ocean and soil, on host-microbiota interactions and on the global burden of infectious diseases and ecosystem processes, and they explore open questions and research needs.}, }
@article {pmid31091494, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, Q and Zhang, X and Almendinger, JE and Huang, M and Chen, X and Leng, G and Zhou, Y and Zhao, K and Asrar, GR and Li, X}, title = {Climate change will pose challenges to water quality management in the st. Croix River basin.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {251}, number = {}, pages = {302-311}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.04.129}, pmid = {31091494}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Water Resources/*trends ; Hydrodynamics ; Minnesota ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Water Cycle ; Water Pollutants/*analysis ; Water Quality/*standards ; Wisconsin ; }, abstract = {Responses of streamflow and nutrient export to changing climate conditions should be investigated for effective water quality management and pollution control. Using downscaled climate projections and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we projected future streamflow, sediment export, and riverine nutrient export in the St. Croix River Basin (SCRB) during 2020-2099. Results show substantial increases in riverine water, sediment, and nutrient load under future climate conditions, particularly under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Intensified water cycling and enhanced nutrient export will pose challenges to water quality management and affect multiple Best Management Practices (BMPs) efforts, which are aimed at reducing nutrient loads in SCRB. In addition to the physical impacts of climate change on terrestrial hydrology, our analyses demonstrate significant reductions in ET under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Changes in plant physiology induced by climate change may markedly affect water cycling and associated sediment and nutrient export. Results of this study highlight the importance of examining climate change impacts on water and nutrient delivery for effective watershed management.}, }
@article {pmid31089453, year = {2019}, author = {Pawankar, R}, title = {Climate change, air pollution, and biodiversity in Asia Pacific: impact on allergic diseases.}, journal = {Asia Pacific allergy}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {e11}, doi = {10.5415/apallergy.2019.9.e11}, pmid = {31089453}, issn = {2233-8276}, }
@article {pmid31088668, year = {2019}, author = {Deviatkin, I and Lyu, L and Chen, S and Havukainen, J and Wang, F and Horttanainen, M and Mänttäri, M}, title = {Technical implications and global warming potential of recovering nitrogen released during continuous thermal drying of sewage sludge.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {90}, number = {}, pages = {132-140}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2019.04.031}, pmid = {31088668}, issn = {1879-2456}, abstract = {Thermal drying and consequent incineration of sewage sludge result in an absolute loss of an important macronutrient - nitrogen. To fulfill the growing food demand, humanity relies more on industrial fixation of nitrogen, primarily via the Haber-Bosch process. The present paper examines the nitrogen release during continuous thermal drying of municipal sewage sludge and its consequent recovery for fertilization. Furthermore, the possibility of nitrogen recovery from condensate is assessed. Finally, the study assesses the global warming potential of the proposed nitrogen recovery system and compares it with the baseline system manufacturing fertilizers from industrially fixed nitrogen. The results of the drying experiments showed that 0.73-1.03 g N-NH3 kg-1 total solids of sewage sludge was released to off-gases during its continuous thermal drying under 160 °C, which corresponds to 41-58% of ionized nitrogen content in raw sewage sludge subjected to thermal drying. The global warming potential of the nitrogen recovery was 28% lower compared to that of the commercial fertilizer production of equivalent properties: 4.1 kg CO2-Equiv. kg-1 N versus 5.7 kg CO2-Equiv. kg-1 N. Still, the sensitivity analysis showed that the results might traverse and lead to a higher global warming potential of 6.2 kg CO2-Equiv. during the nitrogen recovery process under certain process parameters.}, }
@article {pmid31087444, year = {2019}, author = {Shilt-Moody, N and Tsai, E}, title = {Turning the tide: The shift to climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of healthcare risk management : the journal of the American Society for Healthcare Risk Management}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, pages = {36-41}, doi = {10.1002/jhrm.21365}, pmid = {31087444}, issn = {2040-0861}, abstract = {In the United States, a growing number of companies are taking progressive steps to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Already, more than half of all Fortune 100 companies have announced clean energy targets, signaling climate change risk reduction is becoming a top priority. Climate change is not without controversy, yet it is a real business concern among corporate executives and health care leaders alike. From fears stoked by devastating wildfires in California to a rising tide of financial hardships due to hurricane flooding in the Southeast, it seems no region is immune to Mother Nature's growing cost to business. This report addresses how health care leaders are approaching climate change initiatives across the country by examining research articles, key opinion leaders, and health care organizations on the bleeding edge of climate change reduction. In an already complex industry, health care leaders have a special responsibility to do no harm to the patients they serve and a financial responsibility to drive monetary returns for invested stakeholders. Significant cost savings, long-term risk reduction, and improved population health are a few of the benefits health care organizations around the country can gain from building a sound climate change mitigation strategy.}, }
@article {pmid31086383, year = {2019}, author = {Ramachandran, A and Palanivelu, K and Mudgal, BV and Jeganathan, A and Guganesh, S and Abinaya, B and Elangovan, A}, title = {Climate change impact on fluvial flooding in the Indian sub-basin: A case study on the Adyar sub-basin.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0216461}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0216461}, pmid = {31086383}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Flooding is one of the most disastrous global hazards, which has been occurring more frequently in recent times. It is observed that climate change is likely to increase the intensity and the frequency of floods and river basins have become more vulnerable to fluvial flooding. In this study, the impact of climate change on fluvial flooding was analyzed over the Adyar sub-basin. This study applied statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data in a CMIP5 dataset of IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). Based on the performance to simulate the observed climate, four GCMs, namely, cesm1-cam5, mpi-esm-mr, ncar-ccsm4, and bnu-esm, for RCP 4.5 were selected for projections of the future scenario. The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for the past and future scenarios were derived from the IMD-observed and GCM-projected rainfall data. Integrated flood modeling was performed with hydrologic (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (HEC-RAS) models. Finally, in order to visualize the inundation areas according to the future climate projection, flood inundation maps were prepared geospatially using the ArcGIS software. For the 100-year return period, the results predict that the peak discharge for the future climate scenario would increase by 34.3%-91.9% as compared to the present climate scenario. Similarly, the future projections show an increase in the flooded area ranging from 12.6% to 26.4% based on GCMs. This simulation helps in understanding the flood risk over the Adyar sub-basin under the changing climate and the requirement for the regulation of developmental activities over the flood-prone areas.}, }
@article {pmid31086357, year = {2019}, author = {Maibach, EW and Sarfaty, M and Mitchell, M and Gould, R}, title = {Limiting global warming to 1.5 to 2.0°C-A unique and necessary role for health professionals.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {e1002804}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002804}, pmid = {31086357}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {In an Editorial, Edward Maibach and colleagues discuss the important role of health professionals in future responses to threats of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31085651, year = {2019}, author = {Kätelhön, A and Meys, R and Deutz, S and Suh, S and Bardow, A}, title = {Climate change mitigation potential of carbon capture and utilization in the chemical industry.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {23}, pages = {11187-11194}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1821029116}, pmid = {31085651}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Chemical production is set to become the single largest driver of global oil consumption by 2030. To reduce oil consumption and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, carbon dioxide can be captured from stacks or air and utilized as alternative carbon source for chemicals. Here, we show that carbon capture and utilization (CCU) has the technical potential to decouple chemical production from fossil resources, reducing annual GHG emissions by up to 3.5 Gt CO2-eq in 2030. Exploiting this potential, however, requires more than 18.1 PWh of low-carbon electricity, corresponding to 55% of the projected global electricity production in 2030. Most large-scale CCU technologies are found to be less efficient in reducing GHG emissions per unit low-carbon electricity when benchmarked to power-to-X efficiencies reported for other large-scale applications including electro-mobility (e-mobility) and heat pumps. Once and where these other demands are satisfied, CCU in the chemical industry could efficiently contribute to climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid31082605, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, K and Zhang, H and Han, X and Qiu, W}, title = {Sources and burial fluxes of sedimentary organic carbon in the northern Bering Sea and the northern Chukchi Sea in response to global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {679}, number = {}, pages = {97-105}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.374}, pmid = {31082605}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Arctic and subarctic seas are the major CO2 sink areas on earth. In this study, the vertical variation characteristics of organic carbon, total nitrogen and their ratio (Corg/Nt), stable isotopes δ13C and δ15N, and BIT (branched and isoprenoid tetraether) index of GDGTs (glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) in combination with 210Pb-dating were used to analyze the changes in the marine and terrestrial sources of organic carbon in the northern Bering Sea (site 1), western Beaufort Sea slope (site 2) and northern Chukchi Sea (site 3). Organic carbon burial fluxes (OCBF) in the context of global warming were also explored at sites 1 and 3. The results showed that organic matter in these sediments were a mixed input of marine and terrestrial sources, and the BIT index and δ13C of site 2 suggested that the terrestrial soil organic matter was dominant. Based on a combination of 210Pb dating and Corg, the sedimentary OCBF at site 1 was 2.29-3.65 mg cm-2 y-1, and at site 3 was 0.00-0.41 mg cm-2 y-1. The temperature anomalies and sea ice changes in the Arctic in the past 100 years were compared with the burial fluxes of the terrestrial organic carbon. At site 1, the results indicated that fast melting of seasonal sea ice led to earlier arrival of ice algae bloom, enhanced zooplankton feeding and reduced carbon burial from 1947 to 2010, and the sudden increase in carbon burial after 2010 was attributed to an increase in primary productivity and terrestrial organic matter input due to an accelerated melting of sea ice. There was a smaller change in marine organic carbon content in site 3, but OCBF increased after a pre-1965 decrease, mainly controlled by terrestrial organic matter input associated with temperature rising and sea ice melting during recent decades.}, }
@article {pmid31077926, year = {2019}, author = {Farjad, B and Gupta, A and Sartipizadeh, H and Cannon, AJ}, title = {A novel approach for selecting extreme climate change scenarios for climate change impact studies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {678}, number = {}, pages = {476-485}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.218}, pmid = {31077926}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {One of the main challenges in climate change impact assessment studies is selecting climate change scenarios. By focusing on selecting projected extremes in a high dimensional space, one is confronted with the shrinkage of ensemble size while preserving the projection spread. This study proposes a novel integrated computational geometry algorithm to select extreme climate change scenarios in a high dimensional space. A set of 12 prominent climate extremes indices were used (as input to the algorithm) out of the 27 core indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization's Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The ETCCDI indices were projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the period of 2081-2100 relative to the baseline period 1986-2005. The approach enables the user to shrink the initial selected ensemble into smaller sub-ensembles while still capturing a wide range of simulated changes for selected climatological variables. The conservation of the projection spread was evaluated using a robust validation method when the spread error was calculated for each simulation run. The developed algorithm was applied to three different regions where the geographical domain was narrowed-down from sub-continental (western North America) to its regional (Alberta, Canada), and local (Athabasca River basin, Alberta, Canada) subdomains. Results revealed that selected extreme scenarios can vary from one region to another within the same geographical domain in response to the spatial variation in climatic regime.}, }
@article {pmid31075953, year = {2019}, author = {Biasi, R and Brunori, E and Ferrara, C and Salvati, L}, title = {Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Phenology and Quality Traits of Vitis vinifera L.: The Contribution of Local Knowledge.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants8050121}, pmid = {31075953}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {Landscape 4.0 - food, wellbeing and environment//Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research, DIBAF-Department of University of Tuscia and Umbria region (Rural Development Program 2014-2020 - Measure 16. Cooperation, Sub-Measure 16.2.2/ ; }, abstract = {Developing adaptation strategies in Vitis vinifera, a crop sensitive to climate change, is crucial for resilience of traditional viticultural systems, especially in climate-vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean basin. A progressive warming is demonstrated to alter the geographical distribution of grapevine, reducing land capability for typical grapes and vine productions in most Southern European districts traditionally specialized in tree crops. Grapevine growth and reproduction under climate change require a continuous monitoring to adapt agronomic practices and strategies to global change. The present study illustrates an empirical approach grounded on a set of bio-physical indicators assessing the genotype-related response to climate variation. This approach was tested in Umbria, central Italy, to verify the response of some major international and local grapevine varieties to climate variation during a relatively long time interval (1995-2015). Long-term data for ripening time and berry quality collected in the study area were correlated to representative bioclimatic indices including Winkler, Huglin, and Cool night indicators. Results of this study highlighted the increase of air temperature (reflecting the inherent growth in thermal availability for maturation) and the alteration of precipitation patterns toward more intense precipitation. Climate variability exerted distinctive impacts on grapevine phenology depending on the related genotype. Empirical findings underline the usefulness of a permanent field monitoring of the relationship between selected climate variables and grape ripening with the aim to develop adaptive viticultural practices at farm's scale.}, }
@article {pmid31075527, year = {2019}, author = {de la Hoz, CF and Ramos, E and Puente, A and Juanes, JA}, title = {Climate change induced range shifts in seaweeds distributions in Europe.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {148}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.04.012}, pmid = {31075527}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {There are evidences of how climate change is affecting seaweeds distribution and the ecosystems services they provide. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these impacts when managing marine areas. One of the most applied tools in recent years to deal with this are species distribution models, however there are still some challenges to solve, such as the inclusion of hydrodynamic predictors and the application of effective, transferable and user-oriented methodologies. Five species (Saccorhiza polyschides, Gelidium spinosum, Sargassum muticum, Pelvetia canaliculata and Cystoseira baccata) in Europe and 15 variables were considered. Nine of them were projected to the RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-term (2040-2069) and the long term (2070-2099). Algorithms for each species were applied to generate models that were assessed by comparison of probabilities and observations (area under the curve, true skill statistics, Boyce index, sensitivity, correct classification rate), niches overlap (Schoener's D, Hellinger's I), geographical similarity (interquartile range) and ecological realism. Models built demonstrated very good predictive accuracy and sensitivity, without overfitting risk. A medium overlap in the historical and RCPs environmental conditions were obtained, therefore the models can be considered transferable and results accurate because only some isolated points were detected as outliers, corresponding to low probabilities. The areas of S. polyschides and G. spinosum have been identified to be dramatically reduced, meanwhile S. muticum and C. baccata were predicted to expand their range. P. canaliculata was expected to keep its sites of presence but with a decrease in its probability of occurrence. For all species it was remarkable the importance of hydrodynamic variables and parameters representing extreme conditions. Spatially predictions of the potential species and areas at risk are decisive for defining management strategies and resource allocation. The performance and usefulness of the approach applied in this study have been demonstrated for algae with different ecological requirements (from upper littoral to subtidal) and distributional patterns (native and invasive), therefore results can be used by marine planners with different goals: marine protected areas designation, monitoring efforts guiding, invasions risk assessment or aquaculture facilities zonation.}, }
@article {pmid31074105, year = {2019}, author = {Price, SJ and Leung, WTM and Owen, CJ and Puschendorf, R and Sergeant, C and Cunningham, AA and Balloux, F and Garner, TWJ and Nichols, RA}, title = {Effects of historic and projected climate change on the range and impacts of an emerging wildlife disease.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {8}, pages = {2648-2660}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14651}, pmid = {31074105}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {The global trend of increasing environmental temperatures is often predicted to result in more severe disease epidemics. However, unambiguous evidence that temperature is a driver of epidemics is largely lacking, because it is demanding to demonstrate its role among the complex interactions between hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. Here, we apply a three-pronged approach to understand the effects of temperature on ranavirus epidemics in UK common frogs, combining in vitro, in vivo, and field studies. Each approach suggests that higher temperatures drive increasing severity of epidemics. In wild populations, ranavirosis incidents were more frequent and more severe at higher temperatures, and their frequency increased through a period of historic warming in the 1990s. Laboratory experiments using cell culture and whole animal models showed that higher temperature increased ranavirus propagation, disease incidence, and mortality rate. These results, combined with climate projections, predict severe ranavirosis outbreaks will occur over wider areas and an extended season, possibly affecting larval recruitment. Since ranaviruses affect a variety of ectothermic hosts (amphibians, reptiles, and fish), wider ecological damage could occur. Our three complementary lines of evidence present a clear case for direct environmental modulation of these epidemics and suggest management options to protect species from disease.}, }
@article {pmid31073131, year = {2019}, author = {Riris, P and Arroyo-Kalin, M}, title = {Widespread population decline in South America correlates with mid-Holocene climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {6850}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-43086-w}, pmid = {31073131}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {PF2\180065//British Academy/ ; }, abstract = {Quantifying the impacts of climate change on prehistoric demography is crucial for understanding the adaptive pathways taken by human populations. Archaeologists across South America have pointed to patterns of regional abandonment during the Middle Holocene (8200 to 4200 cal BP) as evidence of sensitivity to shifts in hydroclimate over this period. We develop a unified approach to investigate demography and climate in South America and aim to clarify the extent to which evidence of local anthropic responses can be generalised to large-scale trends. We achieve this by integrating archaeological radiocarbon data and palaeoclimatic time series to show that population decline occurred coeval with the transition to the initial mid-Holocene across South America. Through the analysis of radiocarbon dates with Monte Carlo methods, we find multiple, sustained phases of downturn associated to periods of high climatic variability. A likely driver of the duration and severity of demographic turnover is the frequency of exceptional climatic events, rather than the absolute magnitude of change. Unpredictable levels of tropical precipitation had sustained negative impacts on pre-Columbian populations lasting until at least 6000 cal BP, after which recovery is evident. Our results support the inference that a demographic regime shift in the second half of the Middle Holocene were coeval with cultural practices surrounding Neotropical plant management and early cultivation, possibly acting as buffers when the wild resource base was in flux.}, }
@article {pmid31071928, year = {2019}, author = {Chang, HP and Ma, CC and Chen, HS}, title = {Climate Change and Consumer's Attitude toward Insect Food.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091606}, pmid = {31071928}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Given the influence of rising environmental awareness, food systems and security are receiving increasing international attention. Previous studies have discussed the acceptance of insect foods but have been primarily conducted in a European context. Hence, their results cannot be applied to Taiwanese consumers. Regarding this, our study is centered on the theory of planned behavior and considers environmental concern and food neophobia to discuss the effects of consumer attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control on the purchase intention toward insect food. We used purposive sampling to survey questionnaire answers face-to-face in Taichung city, Taiwan. We distributed 408 surveys of which 77.45% were used in this study. The results revealed that consumer attitudes, perceived behavioral control, and food neophobia significantly influence purchase intention, whereas subjective norms and environmental concern did not demonstrate significant relationships with purchase intention. According to these results, we suggest that businesses emphasize consumers' product experience or reduce levels of food neophobia to increase consumer interest in insect foods and improve the acceptability of such foods, thereby increasing purchase intention.}, }
@article {pmid31070715, year = {2019}, author = {Chan, EYY and Ho, JY and Hung, HHY and Liu, S and Lam, HCY}, title = {Health impact of climate change in cities of middle-income countries: the case of China.}, journal = {British medical bulletin}, volume = {130}, number = {1}, pages = {5-24}, doi = {10.1093/bmb/ldz011}, pmid = {31070715}, issn = {1471-8391}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This review examines the human health impact of climate change in China. Through reviewing available research findings under four major climate change phenomena, namely extreme temperature, altered rainfall pattern, rise of sea level and extreme weather events, relevant implications for other middle-income population with similar contexts will be synthesized.<br><br>SOURCES OF DATA: Sources of data included bilingual peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2018 in PubMed, Google Scholar and China Academic Journals Full-text Database.<br><br>AREAS OF AGREEMENT: The impact of temperature on mortality outcomes was the most extensively studied, with the strongest cause-specific mortality risks between temperature and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. The geographical focuses of the studies indicated variations in health risks and impacts of different climate change phenomena across the country.<br><br>AREAS OF CONTROVERSY: While rainfall-related studies predominantly focus on its impact on infectious and vector-borne diseases, consistent associations were not often found.<br><br>GROWING POINTS: Mental health outcomes of climate change had been gaining increasing attention, particularly in the context of extreme weather events. The number of projection studies on the long-term impact had been growing.<br><br>The lack of studies on the health implications of rising sea levels and on comorbidity and injury outcomes warrants immediate attention. Evidence is needed to understand health impacts on vulnerable populations living in growing urbanized cities and urban enclaves, in particular migrant workers. Location-specific climate-health outcome thresholds (such as temperature-mortality threshold) will be needed to support evidence-based clinical management plans and health impact mitigation strategies to protect vulnerable communities.}, }
@article {pmid31070165, year = {2019}, author = {Dhiman, RC and Singh, P and Yadav, Y and Saraswat, S and Kumar, G and Singh, RK and Ojha, VP and Joshi, BC and Singh, P}, title = {Preparedness for malaria elimination in the wake of climate change in the State of Uttarakhand (India).}, journal = {Journal of vector borne diseases}, volume = {56}, number = {1}, pages = {46-52}, doi = {10.4103/0972-9062.257774}, pmid = {31070165}, issn = {0972-9062}, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles/parasitology ; *Climate Change ; Disease Eradication/*methods ; Endemic Diseases/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Humidity ; India/epidemiology ; Malaria/*epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Mosquito Vectors/parasitology ; Plasmodium vivax ; Seasons ; Sporozoites ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Background &amp; objectives: Climate change is an emerging issue particularly in the context of vector-borne diseases. A study was undertaken in Nainital and Almora districts of Uttarakhand to provide evidences of changing climatic conditions, abundance of vectors, and knocking of malaria in hilly areas.<br><br>Material and methods: Longitudinal data on temperature and relative humidity were procured from Tussar Silk Centre, Bhimtal, India as well as generated using HOBO device. Monthly density of malaria vectors, their positivity for sporozoite proteins of malaria parasite and fever surveys were conducted as per the standard procedures from 2010 to 2013. Epidemiological data were procured from the State Programme Officer of Uttarakhand state.<br><br>Results: It was found that the temperature has increased since 1990 resulting in extension in windows of malaria transmission, temporal distribution as well as man hour density of Anopheles culicifacies and An. fluviatilis in hilly districts of Uttarakhand state. Both the vectors were found in high density up to a maximum man hour density of 110 (An. culicifacies) and 69 (An. fluviatilis) as compared to 32 and 33, respectively during 1998. The field collected vector species were also found positive for sporozoite proteins of malaria parasites in the month of October and November. Evidence of occurrence of malaria cases was also found in areas hitherto free from malaria.<br><br>The findings reveal that Himalayan region needs attention to strengthen surveillance for malaria to identify emerging new foci of malaria transmission in view of climate change. Health education to communities about preventive measures to contain breeding of vectors and seeking timely treatment should be imparted so as to achieve the goal of malaria elimination in category-1 in the first instance.}, }
@article {pmid31069721, year = {2019}, author = {Özelsel, TJ and Sondekoppam, RV and Buro, K}, title = {The future is now-it's time to rethink the application of the Global Warming Potential to anesthesia.}, journal = {Canadian journal of anaesthesia = Journal canadien d'anesthesie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s12630-019-01385-w}, pmid = {31069721}, issn = {1496-8975}, }
@article {pmid31068226, year = {2019}, author = {González-Rete, B and Salazar-Schettino, PM and Bucio-Torres, MI and Córdoba-Aguilar, A and Cabrera-Bravo, M}, title = {Activity of the prophenoloxidase system and survival of triatomines infected with different Trypanosoma cruzi strains under different temperatures: understanding Chagas disease in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {219}, doi = {10.1186/s13071-019-3477-9}, pmid = {31068226}, issn = {1756-3305}, support = {IN216118//Programa de Apoyo a Proyectos de Investigación e Innovación Tecnológica (PAPIIT)/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Catechol Oxidase/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Enzyme Precursors/*metabolism ; Female ; Gastrointestinal Tract/anatomy &amp; histology/parasitology ; Insect Vectors/enzymology/parasitology ; Male ; *Temperature ; Triatoma/enzymology/*parasitology ; Trypanosoma cruzi/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Little is known about how human disease vectors will modify their life history patterns and survival capacity as a result of climate change. One case is that of Chagas disease, which has triatomine bugs and Trypanosoma cruzi as vectors and parasite, respectively. This work aimed to determine: (i) the activity of the prophenoloxidase system (prophenoloxidase and phenoloxidase activity, two indicators of immune ability) in three intestine regions (anterior midgut, posterior midgutand rectum) of the triatomine bug Meccus pallidipennis under three temperature conditions (20 °C, 30 °C and 34 °C) against two T. cruzi strains [ITRI/MX/14/CHIL (Chilpancingo) and ITRI/MX/12/MOR (Morelos)], and (ii) whether vector survival varies under these three temperatures after infection by these T. cruzi strains.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results indicate that prophenoloxidase activity was lower at higher temperatures, that the level of prophenoloxidase activity elicited by each strain was different (higher in Chilpancingo than in Morelos strains), and that prophenoloxidase activity was more intense in the anterior midgut than in the posterior midgut or rectum. Survival rates were lower in insects maintained at higher temperatures and infected by Chilpancingo strains.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that climate change could lead to lower prophenoloxidase activity and survival rates in triatomines when infected with different T. cruzi strains, which could reduce the vector capacity of M. pallidipennis.}, }
@article {pmid31067153, year = {2019}, author = {Gibson, K and Haslam, N and Kaplan, I}, title = {Distressing encounters in the context of climate change: Idioms of distress, determinants, and responses to distress in Tuvalu.}, journal = {Transcultural psychiatry}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {667-696}, doi = {10.1177/1363461519847057}, pmid = {31067153}, issn = {1461-7471}, abstract = {Across the globe there is a critical need for culturally informed and locally valid approaches to mental health assessment and intervention, particularly among disadvantaged and marginalized populations. To be optimally effective, such approaches must be informed by a sound understanding of locally relevant idioms of distress and its determinants, including those caused or exacerbated by global power disparities and structural inequities. Climate change, arising due to anthropogenic sources located predominantly in industrialized nations, is one potential determinant of distress having disproportionate adverse impacts on already marginalized populations. The present study formed part of a broader project examining the intersections of culture, climate change, and distress in the Polynesian nation of Tuvalu - a focal point of global concern over the human costs of climate change. The study explored determinants and idioms of distress and culturally prescribed responses to coping with distress. Results are based on fieldwork conducted in 2015 entailing semi-structured interviews with 16 key informants and 23 lay residents of Funafuti atoll, recruited using maximal variation purposive sampling. Findings are examined in consideration of the unfolding impacts of climate change and the threat it portends for the future, both of which were identified as salient determinants of distress, in keeping with theorized relationships between climate change and mental health. The study underscores the necessity of attending to the relationships between global forces, local cultures, and individual experiences of distress, as efforts to provide access to culturally informed social and mental health services expand globally.}, }
@article {pmid31066653, year = {2019}, author = {Kipp, A and Cunsolo, A and Gillis, D and Sawatzky, A and Harper, SL}, title = {The need for community-led, integrated and innovative monitoring programmes when responding to the health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {78}, number = {2}, pages = {1517581}, doi = {10.1080/22423982.2018.1517581}, pmid = {31066653}, issn = {2242-3982}, support = {//CIHR/Canada ; }, abstract = {In Northern Canada, climate change has led to many acute and interrelated health and environmental impacts experienced among Inuit populations. Community-based monitoring, in which community members participate in monitoring initiatives using various forms of technology, is a key strategy increasingly used to detect, monitor and respond to climate change impacts. To better understand the landscape of existing environmental and health monitoring programmes mobilising different technologies and operating in the North we conducted a review that used environmental scan methodologies to explore and contextualise these programmes. We consulted with academic researchers with experience in community-led monitoring, conducted systematic searches of grey and peer-reviewed literature, and conducted a secondary search for environment-health mobile-phone applications. Following specific criteria, we identified 18 monitoring programmes using information and communication technologies in the North, and three global monitoring mobile-phone applications, which cumulatively monitored 74 environment and health indicators. Several themes emerged, including the need for: (1) community leadership, (2) indicators of environment and/or human health and (3) innovative technology. This synthesis supports the development of community-led, environment-health monitoring programmes that use innovative technology to monitor and share information related to the health implications of climate change in and around Indigenous communities throughout the Circumpolar North.}, }
@article {pmid31064134, year = {2019}, author = {Hayes, K and Berry, P and Ebi, KL}, title = {Factors Influencing the Mental Health Consequences of Climate Change in Canada.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091583}, pmid = {31064134}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Climate change is increasing risks to the mental health of Canadians. Impacts from a changing climate may outstrip the ability of Canadians and their health-sustaining institutions to adapt effectively and could increase poor mental health outcomes, particularly amongst those most marginalized in society. A scoping review of literature published during 2000-2017 explored risks, impacts, and vulnerabilities related to climate change and mental health. In this commentary, the authors present a new assessment of evidence from this scoping review and highlight factors that influence the capacity to adapt to the mental health consequences of a changing climate. Findings from this assessment reveal eleven key factors that influence the capacity to adapt: social capital; sense of community; government assistance; access to resources; community preparedness; intersectoral/transdisciplinary collaboration; vulnerability and adaptation assessments; communication and outreach; mental health literacy; and culturally relevant resources. Attention to these factors by Canadian decision makers can support proactive and effective management of the mental health consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31064099, year = {2019}, author = {Bartlow, AW and Manore, C and Xu, C and Kaufeld, KA and Del Valle, S and Ziemann, A and Fairchild, G and Fair, JM}, title = {Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment.}, journal = {Veterinary sciences}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/vetsci6020040}, pmid = {31064099}, issn = {2306-7381}, support = {89233218CNA000001//United States Department of Energy/ ; }, abstract = {Infectious diseases are changing due to the environment and altered interactions among hosts, reservoirs, vectors, and pathogens. This is particularly true for zoonotic diseases that infect humans, agricultural animals, and wildlife. Within the subset of zoonoses, vector-borne pathogens are changing more rapidly with climate change, and have a complex epidemiology, which may allow them to take advantage of a changing environment. Most mosquito-borne infectious diseases are transmitted by mosquitoes in three genera: Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex, and the expansion of these genera is well documented. There is an urgent need to study vector-borne diseases in response to climate change and to produce a generalizable approach capable of generating risk maps and forecasting outbreaks. Here, we provide a strategy for coupling climate and epidemiological models for zoonotic infectious diseases. We discuss the complexity and challenges of data and model fusion, baseline requirements for data, and animal and human population movement. Disease forecasting needs significant investment to build the infrastructure necessary to collect data about the environment, vectors, and hosts at all spatial and temporal resolutions. These investments can contribute to building a modeling community around the globe to support public health officials so as to reduce disease burden through forecasts with quantified uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid31063502, year = {2019}, author = {Kosaka, T and Nakajima, Y and Ishii, A and Yamashita, M and Yoshida, S and Murata, M and Kato, K and Shiromaru, Y and Kato, S and Kanasaki, Y and Yoshikawa, H and Matsutani, M and Thanonkeo, P and Yamada, M}, title = {Capacity for survival in global warming: Adaptation of mesophiles to the temperature upper limit.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0215614}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0215614}, pmid = {31063502}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommends keeping the increase in temperature to less than a two-degree increase by the end of the century, but the direct impact of global warming on ecosystems including microbes has not been investigated. Here we performed thermal adaptation of two species and three strains of mesophilic microbes for improvement of the survival upper limit of temperature, and the improvement was evaluated by a newly developed method. To understand the limitation and variation of thermal adaptation, experiments with mutators and by multiple cultures were performed. The results of experiments including genome sequencing and analysis of the characteristics of mutants suggest that these microbes bear a genomic potential to endure a 2-3°C rise in temperature but possess a limited variation of strategies for thermal adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31062666, year = {2019}, author = {Cauchi, JP and Correa-Velez, I and Bambrick, H}, title = {Climate change, food security and health in Kiribati: a narrative review of the literature.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1603683}, doi = {10.1080/16549716.2019.1603683}, pmid = {31062666}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Food Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Micronesia ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is recognised as having a 'multiplier effect' on food insecurity and adverse health experiences of communities in the Pacific region. Islands are especially at risk due to their limited land availability, population pressures and, in the case of atolls, their low-lying topography making them vulnerable to sea level rise.<br><br>AIM: This review examines the literature describing the relationship between climate change, food security and health in Kiribati.<br><br>METHOD: A narrative review was conducted, looking at both peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed literature available online from 1 January 2008 to 14 August 2018, the search date. Sources from three databases of peer-reviewed literature, Google and additional sources from reference lists were included in the review.<br><br>RESULTS: Thirty-seven items were included in this review. These show climate change is having a noticeable impact on food security and health in Kiribati. Four themes were identified from the literature that provide different perspectives to the problem outlined.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change is a pressing concern for the government of Kiribati and communities alike, and yet the problem is worsening, not improving. Further research is required to look at effective policies and cultural perspectives to address this problem.}, }
@article {pmid31061690, year = {2019}, author = {Mashizha, TM}, title = {Adapting to climate change: Reflections of peasant farmers in Mashonaland West Province of Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {571}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.571}, pmid = {31061690}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is projected to have negative impacts on agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa and this is likely to continue for decades, unless adaptation measures are implemented. The changing climate is a global challenge to sustainable livelihoods and economic development. Peasant farmers in Zimbabwe depend entirely on rain-fed agriculture, a situation that makes agriculture and rural livelihoods vulnerable to climate change. This paper discusses the findings of the study carried out in the Zvimba District amongst peasant farmers on their knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies. Semi-structured interviews, observations and document analysis were used as methodologies for data collection for the study. Purposeful sampling technique was applied to 40 peasant farmers. Qualitative data from interviews and focus group discussion were analysed using context analysis. Households acknowledged that rainfall amount has decreased over the last 30 years. Such changes have reduced agricultural productivity, and in response, communities have developed multiple adaptation strategies such as harnessing social capital, crop and livelihood diversification, engaging in small businesses and water harvesting for livestock keeping. The study concludes that there is a need to recognise the validity of indigenous knowledge and an inventory should be created for future use. The paper notes that diversification of adaptive strategies is vital for sustainable livelihood in a changing climate.<br><br>Keywords: climate change; adaptation; Zimbabwe; livelihood diversification.}, }
@article {pmid31061126, year = {2019}, author = {Razgour, O and Forester, B and Taggart, JB and Bekaert, M and Juste, J and Ibáñez, C and Puechmaille, SJ and Novella-Fernandez, R and Alberdi, A and Manel, S}, title = {Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {21}, pages = {10418-10423}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1820663116}, pmid = {31061126}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species' future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population's adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.}, }
@article {pmid31058749, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {&quot;How Can Climate Change Impact the Workplace and Worker Health?&quot; Part 6: Operational Support-Related Responsibilities of Occupational and Environmental Medicine Experts to the Employer in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {61}, number = {7}, pages = {e317-e319}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000001621}, pmid = {31058749}, issn = {1536-5948}, }
@article {pmid31058393, year = {2019}, author = {Wolf, KKE and Romanelli, E and Rost, B and John, U and Collins, S and Weigand, H and Hoppe, CJM}, title = {Company matters: The presence of other genotypes alters traits and intraspecific selection in an Arctic diatom under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {9}, pages = {2869-2884}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14675}, pmid = {31058393}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {243702//Norwegian Research Council/ ; //Royal Society/ ; }, abstract = {Arctic phytoplankton and their response to future conditions shape one of the most rapidly changing ecosystems on the planet. We tested how much the phenotypic responses of strains from the same Arctic diatom population diverge and whether the physiology and intraspecific composition of multistrain populations differs from expectations based on single strain traits. To this end, we conducted incubation experiments with the diatom Thalassiosira hyalina under present-day and future temperature and pCO2 treatments. Six fresh isolates from the same Svalbard population were incubated as mono- and multistrain cultures. For the first time, we were able to closely follow intraspecific selection within an artificial population using microsatellites and allele-specific quantitative PCR. Our results showed not only that there is substantial variation in how strains of the same species cope with the tested environments but also that changes in genotype composition, production rates, and cellular quotas in the multistrain cultures are not predictable from monoculture performance. Nevertheless, the physiological responses as well as strain composition of the artificial populations were highly reproducible within each environment. Interestingly, we only detected significant strain sorting in those populations exposed to the future treatment. This study illustrates that the genetic composition of populations can change on very short timescales through selection from the intraspecific standing stock, indicating the potential for rapid population level adaptation to climate change. We further show that individuals adjust their phenotype not only in response to their physicochemical but also to their biological surroundings. Such intraspecific interactions need to be understood in order to realistically predict ecosystem responses to global change.}, }
@article {pmid31057586, year = {2019}, author = {Gallego-Tévar, B and Infante-Izquierdo, MD and Figueroa, E and Nieva, FJJ and Muñoz-Rodríguez, AF and Grewell, BJ and Castillo, JM}, title = {Some Like It Hot: Maternal-Switching With Climate Change Modifies Formation of Invasive Spartina Hybrids.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {484}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00484}, pmid = {31057586}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change can induce temporary, spatial or behavioral changes in species, so that only some species can adapt to the new climatic conditions. In the case of invasive species, it is expected that they will be promoted in a context of global change, given their high tolerance to environmental factors and phenotypic plasticity. Once in the invaded range, these species can hybridize with native species thus introducing their genotype in the native biota. However, the effects that climate change will have on this process of invasion by hybridization remain unclear. We evaluated the historical establishment of the reciprocal hybrids between the native Spartina maritima and the invasive S. densiflora in the Gulf of Cadiz (SW Iberian Peninsula) and we related it to climatic changes during the period 1955-2017. Our results showed that, according to their dating based on their rate of lateral expansion rates, the establishment of S. maritima × densiflora and S. densiflora × maritima in the Gulf of Cadiz has occurred in the last two centuries and has been related to changes in air temperature and rainfall during the flowering periods of their parental species, with antagonist impacts on both hybrids. Thus, the hybrid S. densiflora × maritima has been established in years with mild ends of spring and beginning of summer when the flowering of S. maritima lengthened and its pollen production was higher, and it coincided with the beginning of the flowering period of S. densiflora. Moreover, the establishment of this hybrid was related to higher spring/summer rainfalls, probably due to the reduction in salinity in middle marshes. However, the hybrid S. maritima × densiflora, was established mainly in warmer spring/summers in which the proportion of pollen:ovule of S. maritima was reduced favoring its pollination by S. densiflora. As a consequence of the promotion of S. maritima × densiflora with climate change, the native and endangered species S. maritima would be threatened, as both taxa share the same habitat and the hybrid shows a remarkably higher competitive potential.}, }
@article {pmid31057569, year = {2019}, author = {De Ollas, C and Morillón, R and Fotopoulos, V and Puértolas, J and Ollitrault, P and Gómez-Cadenas, A and Arbona, V}, title = {Facing Climate Change: Biotechnology of Iconic Mediterranean Woody Crops.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {427}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00427}, pmid = {31057569}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The Mediterranean basin is especially sensitive to the adverse outcomes of climate change and especially to variations in rainfall patterns and the incidence of extremely high temperatures. These two concurring adverse environmental conditions will surely have a detrimental effect on crop performance and productivity that will be particularly severe on woody crops such as citrus, olive and grapevine that define the backbone of traditional Mediterranean agriculture. These woody species have been traditionally selected for traits such as improved fruit yield and quality or alteration in harvesting periods, leaving out traits related to plant field performance. This is currently a crucial aspect due to the progressive and imminent effects of global climate change. Although complete genome sequence exists for sweet orange (Citrus sinensis) and clementine (Citrus clementina), olive tree (Olea europaea) and grapevine (Vitis vinifera), the development of biotechnological tools to improve stress tolerance still relies on the study of the available genetic resources including interspecific hybrids, naturally occurring (or induced) polyploids and wild relatives under field conditions. To this respect, post-genomic era studies including transcriptomics, metabolomics and proteomics provide a wide and unbiased view of plant physiology and biochemistry under adverse environmental conditions that, along with high-throughput phenotyping, could contribute to the characterization of plant genotypes exhibiting physiological and/or genetic traits that are correlated to abiotic stress tolerance. The ultimate goal of precision agriculture is to improve crop productivity, in terms of yield and quality, making a sustainable use of land and water resources under adverse environmental conditions using all available biotechnological tools and high-throughput phenotyping. This review focuses on the current state-of-the-art of biotechnological tools such as high throughput -omics and phenotyping on grapevine, citrus and olive and their contribution to plant breeding programs.}, }
@article {pmid31056056, year = {2019}, author = {Bebber, DP}, title = {Climate change effects on Black Sigatoka disease of banana.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1775}, pages = {20180269}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0269}, pmid = {31056056}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Climate change has significantly altered species distributions in the wild and has the potential to affect the interactions between pests and diseases and their human, animal and plant hosts. While several studies have projected changes in disease distributions in the future, responses to historical climate change are poorly understood. Such analyses are required to dissect the relative contributions of climate change, host availability and dispersal to the emergence of pests and diseases. Here, we model the influence of climate change on the most damaging disease of a major tropical food plant, Black Sigatoka disease of banana. Black Sigatoka emerged from Asia in the late twentieth Century and has recently completed its invasion of Latin American and Caribbean banana-growing areas. We parametrize an infection model with published experimental data and drive the model with hourly microclimate data from a global climate reanalysis dataset. We define infection risk as the sum of the number of modelled hourly spore cohorts that infect a leaf over a time interval. The model shows that infection risk has increased by a median of 44.2% across banana-growing areas of Latin America and the Caribbean since the 1960s, due to increasing canopy wetness and improving temperature conditions for the pathogen. Thus, while increasing banana production and global trade have probably facilitated Black Sigatoka establishment and spread, climate change has made the region increasingly conducive for plant infection. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.}, }
@article {pmid31052196, year = {2019}, author = {Gao, D and Xie, M and Chen, X and Wang, T and Zhan, C and Ren, J and Liu, Q}, title = {Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Surface Ozone during Summer in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091528}, pmid = {31052196}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Future climate change can impact ozone concentrations by changing regional meteorological factors related to ozone (O3) pollution. To better understand the variations of meteorological factors and their effects on O3 formation processes under future climate conditions, we model the present and the future meteorology and air quality in summer over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry module (WRF/Chem), which is driven by the outputs of Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). The simulations predict that solar radiation, 2-m air temperature, and wind speed increase in the daytime over most of the YRD region. Absolute humidity and precipitation increase in the north and decrease in the south, while the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) has an opposite change pattern displaying a decrease in the north and an increase in the south. The southerly wind will be strengthened in the daytime. At night, the change patterns of the meteorological factors are similar to the daytime but with small variations. Meanwhile, O3 and its precursors all increase in the north and decrease in the south. The increases of NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOC), and CO are related with the decreases of PBLH and the input effect of stronger southerly wind, while the decreases are attributed to the output effect of the stronger southerly wind. During the daytime, the increase of surface O3 in the north is dominated by the chemical processes related with the increases of solar radiation, air temperature, and O3 precursors. The decrease of surface O3 in the south is mainly caused by the transport process changing with the strengthened southerly wind. At night, the surface O3 changing the amplitude is less than the daytime. The less O3 variations at night can be attributed to an O3 titration reaction with NO, the changes in NOx concentrations, and the increases of nocturnal PBLH. With the aid of H2O2/HNO3, O3 formation in the YRD region is found to be easily affected by NOx in the future. The findings can help to understand the changing trend of O3 in the YRD region and can propose reasonable pollution control policies.}, }
@article {pmid31051384, year = {2019}, author = {Duane, A and Aquilué, N and Canelles, Q and Morán-Ordoñez, A and De Cáceres, M and Brotons, L}, title = {Adapting prescribed burns to future climate change in Mediterranean landscapes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {677}, number = {}, pages = {68-83}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.348}, pmid = {31051384}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Fire regimes are shifting or are expected to do so under global change. Current fire suppression is not able to control all wildfires, and its capability to do so might be compromised under harsher climate conditions. Alternative fire management strategies may allow to counteract predicted fire trends, but we lack quantitative tools to evaluate their potential effectiveness at the landscape scale. Here, we sought to quantify changes in fire regimes induced after the implementation of different fire management strategies. We developed and applied a new version of the model MEDFIRE in Catalonia (Mediterranean region of ~32,000 km2 in NE Spain). We first projected burnt area from 2016 to 2100 resulting from climate change under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario of HadGEM-CC model and under current fire suppression levels. We then evaluated the impacts of four fire management strategies: 'Let it burn', fixed effort of prescribed burning with two different spatial allocations, and adaptive prescribed burning dynamically adjusting efforts according to recent past fires. Results predicted the emergence of novel climates associated with similar barometric configurations to current conditions but with higher temperatures (i.e. hot wind events). These novel climates led to an increase in burnt area, which was partially counteracted by negative fire-vegetation feedbacks. All prescribed burning scenarios decreased the amount of high-intensity fires and extreme fire events. The 'Let it burn' strategy, although less costly, was not able to reduce the extent of high-intensity fires. The adaptive prescribed burning scenario resulted in the most cost-efficient strategy. Our results provide quantitative evidence of fire management effectiveness, and bring to light key insights that could guide the design of fire policies fit for future novel climate conditions. We propose adaptive landscape management focused on the reduction of fire negative impacts rather than on the elimination of this disturbance from the system.}, }
@article {pmid31051367, year = {2019}, author = {Luo, M and Liu, T and Meng, F and Duan, Y and Bao, A and Xing, W and Feng, X and De Maeyer, P and Frankl, A}, title = {Identifying climate change impacts on water resources in Xinjiang, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {676}, number = {}, pages = {613-626}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.297}, pmid = {31051367}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water resources have an important role in maintaining ecological fuctions and sustaining social and economic development. This is especially true in arid and semi-arid areas, where climate change has a large impact on water resources, such as in Xinjiang, China. Using a combination of precipitation and temperature bias correction methods, we analyzed projected changes in different hydrological components in nine high-alpine catchments distributed in Xinjiang using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The impacts of elevation, area and aspect of the catchments were analyzed. The results suggested an overall warming and wetting trend for all nine catchments in the near future, with the exception of summer precipitation decreasing in some catchments. The total runoff discharge, evapotranspiration and snow/ice melting will generally increase. Warming temperature plays a more important role in the changes of each hydrological component than increasing precipitation. However, northern Xinjiang was more sensitive to predicted precipitation changes than southern Xinjiang. These results also indicate that the overall increases in water resources are not sustainable, and the impacts of climate change are associated with the elevation, area and slope aspect of the catchments.}, }
@article {pmid31050681, year = {2019}, author = {Bi, K and Linderoth, T and Singhal, S and Vanderpool, D and Patton, JL and Nielsen, R and Moritz, C and Good, JM}, title = {Temporal genomic contrasts reveal rapid evolutionary responses in an alpine mammal during recent climate change.}, journal = {PLoS genetics}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e1008119}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pgen.1008119}, pmid = {31050681}, issn = {1553-7404}, abstract = {Many species have experienced dramatic changes in their abundance and distribution during recent climate change, but it is often unclear whether such ecological responses are accompanied by evolutionary change. We used targeted exon sequencing of 294 museum specimens (160 historic, 134 modern) to generate independent temporal genomic contrasts spanning a century of climate change (1911-2012) for two co-distributed chipmunk species: an endemic alpine specialist (Tamias alpinus) undergoing severe range contraction and a stable mid-elevation species (T. speciosus). Using a novel analytical approach, we reconstructed the demographic histories of these populations and tested for evidence of recent positive directional selection. Only the retracting species showed substantial population genetic fragmentation through time and this was coupled with positive selection and substantial shifts in allele frequencies at a gene, Alox15, involved in regulation of inflammation and response to hypoxia. However, these rapid population and gene-level responses were not detected in an analogous temporal contrast from another area where T. alpinus has also undergone severe range contraction. Collectively, these results highlight that evolutionary responses may be variable and context dependent across populations, even when they show seemingly synchronous ecological shifts. Our results demonstrate that temporal genomic contrasts can be used to detect very recent evolutionary responses within and among contemporary populations, even in the face of complex demographic changes. Given the wealth of specimens archived in natural history museums, comparative analyses of temporal population genomic data have the potential to improve our understanding of recent and ongoing evolutionary responses to rapidly changing environments.}, }
@article {pmid31050235, year = {2019}, author = {Mathis, M and Briand, S}, title = {[Climate change, epidemics and the importance of travel and tropical medicine].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {15}, number = {649}, pages = {898-900}, pmid = {31050235}, issn = {1660-9379}, support = {001//World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Epidemics ; Mosquito Vectors ; *Travel ; Tropical Climate ; *Tropical Medicine ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the factors explaining the increased occurrence of epidemics, their geographical spread as well as their increased severity and broader impact. Climate change makes the environment more favourable for pathogens and their proliferation, as well as for vectors of infectious diseases (such as mosquitoes). Furthermore, the globalisation and intensified travel and trade require international cooperation for epidemic response and training of health professional on emerging infectious risks.}, }
@article {pmid31049162, year = {2019}, author = {Nhamo, G and Muchuru, S}, title = {Climate adaptation in the public health sector in Africa: Evidence from United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Communications.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {644}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.644}, pmid = {31049162}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change has potential to affect human health in various ways. Extreme temperatures and cold both result in deaths, while the changing habitats favouring the breeding of vectors could result in the spread of diseases such as malaria, cholera and typhus. This article reviews climate change adaptation measures in the African public health sector. The evidence is drawn from National Communications of 21 countries as submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This article combines the literature review and grounded theory approaches with data obtained from the UNFCCC National Communications. Among key adaptation measures emerging from the work are weather-based forecasting and early warning systems, public education and awareness, putting in place appropriate policies, surveillance, research and monitoring as well as improving public health infrastructure and technology. The study recommends that African nations should commit to address health impacts of climate change through the implementation of appropriate adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid31049161, year = {2019}, author = {Zwane, EM}, title = {Impact of climate change on primary agriculture, water sources and food security in Western Cape, South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {562}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.562}, pmid = {31049161}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is undoubtedly one of the biggest crises that humanity is facing today. There is a robust scientific consensus that human-induced climate change is occurring not only in the Western Cape but around the world. The objective of this research was to assess the impact of climate change on primary agriculture and food security. The paper is based on a literature review. A variety of literature reviews, for example, 11 government reports and 21 journal articles including experience outside Western Cape, were consulted to enrich the local experience regarding the impact of climate change on agriculture. The results indicated that many dams had low water levels (40%) during 2016/2017, which reduced crop yields including grapes. Droughts, which affected both smallholder and commercial farmers, are now a common phenomenon. Livestock production has declined over time, with small stock, the beef and dairy industry being the most affected. The paper concludes by highlighting climate adaptation and mitigation interventions and strategies for both crops and livestock production in the Western Cape. The major recommendations included scaling up on the use of organic matter to avoid burning and creating gas emissions to the atmosphere, the effective use of livestock manure and the use of appropriate and adaptable seed varieties, managing the manure of the livestock to assist in mulching to reduce water loss through evaporation and using adaptable seeds. Keywords: climate change; impact; mitigation; primary agriculture; adaptation; drought.}, }
@article {pmid31041921, year = {2019}, author = {Yadollahie, M}, title = {The Flood in Iran: A Consequence of the Global Warming?.}, journal = {The international journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {54-56}, doi = {10.15171/ijoem.2019.1681}, pmid = {31041921}, issn = {2008-6814}, }
@article {pmid31035620, year = {2019}, author = {Li, Y and Qin, Y}, title = {The Response of Net Primary Production to Climate Change: A Case Study in the 400 mm Annual Precipitation Fluctuation Zone in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091497}, pmid = {31035620}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {The regions in China that intersect the 400 mm annual precipitation line are especially ecologically sensitive and extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic activities. However, in the context of climate change, the response of vegetation Net Primary Production (NPP) in this region has not been scientifically studied in depth. NPP suffers from the comprehensive effect of multiple climatic factors, and how to eliminate the effect of interfering variables in the correlation analysis of NPP and target variables (temperature or precipitation) is the major challenge in the study of NPP influencing factors. The correlation coefficient between NPP and target variable was calculated by ignoring other variables that also had a large impact on NPP. This increased the uncertainty of research results. Therefore, in this study, the second-order partial correlation analysis method was used to analyze the correlation between NPP and target variables by controlling other variables. This can effectively decrease the uncertainty of analysis results. In this paper, the univariate linear regression, coefficient of variation, and Hurst index estimation were used to study the spatial and temporal variations in NPP and analyze whether the NPP seasonal and annual variability will persist into the future. The results show the following: (i) The spatial distribution of NPP correlated with precipitation and had a gradually decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. From 2000 to 2015, the NPP in the study area had a general upward trend, with a small variation in its range. (ii) Areas with negative partial correlation coefficients between NPP and precipitation are consistent with the areas with more abundant water resources. The partial correlation coefficient between the NPP and the Land Surface Temperature (LST) was positive for 52.64% of the total study area. Finally, the prediction of the persistence of NPP variation into the future showed significant differences on varying time scales. On an annual scale, NPP was predicted to persist for 46% of the study area. On a seasonal scale, NPP in autumn was predicted to account for 49.92%, followed by spring (25.67%), summer (13.40%), and winter (6.75%).}, }
@article {pmid31035418, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, H and Liu, B and Zhou, D and Wu, Z and Wang, T}, title = {Asymmetric Soil Warming under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph16091504}, pmid = {31035418}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Daily surface soil temperature data from 360 weather stations in China during 1962-2011 were retrieved and analyzed. The data revealed two aspects of asymmetric soil warming. Firstly, there was asymmetry between day and night in terms of increases in soil temperature. The daily maximum surface soil temperature (S T max) and daily minimum surface soil temperature (S T min) increased at rates of 0.031 and 0.055 °C/year over the 50-year interval, respectively. As a consequence of the more rapid increases in S T min , the soil diurnal temperature range (SDTR) decreased at most stations (average rate of -0.025 °C/year), with the most profound decrease in winter (-0.08 °C/year). The solar duration (SD) was positively related to SDTR and is regarded as the key underlying cause of the decreasing SDTR. Secondly, there was asymmetry between the soil and air in the temperature increase. The differences between soil and air temperature (T D) were highest in summer (2.76 °C) and smallest in winter (1.55 °C), which decreased by 0.3 °C over the study interval, this meant agricultural practice plans based on air temperature alone may be severely limited. The difference between soil temperature and air temperature reduces at night. This would facilitate the wintering of perennials in areas near the zero-contour line.}, }
@article {pmid31032967, year = {2019}, author = {Milićević, D and Petronijević, R and Petrović, Z and Đjinović-Stojanović, J and Jovanović, J and Baltić, T and Janković, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on aflatoxin M1 contamination of raw milk with special focus on climate conditions in Serbia.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {99}, number = {11}, pages = {5202-5210}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.9768}, pmid = {31032967}, issn = {1097-0010}, mesh = {Aflatoxin M1/*analysis/metabolism ; Animal Feed/analysis ; Animals ; Aspergillus/metabolism ; Cattle ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/chemistry/*microbiology ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Food Contamination/analysis ; Food Safety ; Milk/*chemistry ; Models, Biological ; Principal Component Analysis ; Serbia ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impact of climate change has been identified as an emerging issue worldwide owing to potential effects that can provoke changes in the nature and occurrence of food safety hazards. Mycotoxins are a group of naturally occurring toxic substances produced by several genera of filamentous fungi, among which, primarily aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxins, trichothecenes and zearalenone are of the greatest concern owing to their negative impact on human health, animal productivity and international trade.<br><br>RESULTS: Extreme weather conditions such as floods and droughts which have not occurred previously in Serbia may be supporting factors for contamination of crops by various species of toxigenic fungi and their related mycotoxins. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) and multivariate analyses were used as powerful tools allowing better understanding of the range of climate factors impacting on crop contamination by mycotoxins. Among the selected environmental variables, temperature and moisture significantly influenced aflatoxin production. Recent drought and then flooding confirmed that Serbia is one of the few European countries with very high risk exposure to natural hazards, as well as that mycotoxins are one of the foodborne hazards most susceptible to climate change. Thus climate change effects on mycotoxigenic fungi and mycotoxin contamination are now receiving scientific attention, especially from a risk analysis perspective.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This paper evaluates the available information on the influence of climate change on mycotoxin contamination, especially aflatoxin M1 (AFM1). In addition, this investigation should beneficially contribute to more accurate predictions of the regional risk from mycotoxins in future decades. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid31031955, year = {2019}, author = {Griffith, AW and Harke, MJ and DePasquale, E and Berry, DL and Gobler, CJ}, title = {The harmful algae, Cochlodinium polykrikoides and Aureococcus anophagefferens, elicit stronger transcriptomic and mortality response in larval bivalves (Argopecten irradians) than climate change stressors.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {4931-4948}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5100}, pmid = {31031955}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Global ocean change threatens marine life, yet a mechanistic understanding of how organisms are affected by specific stressors is poorly understood. Here, we identify and compare the unique and common transcriptomic responses of an organism experiencing widespread fisheries declines, Argopecten irradians (bay scallop) exposed to multiple stressors including high pCO2, elevated temperature, and two species of harmful algae, Cochlodinium (aka Margalefidinium) polykrikoides and Aureococcus anophagefferens using high-throughput sequencing (RNA-seq). After 48 hr of exposure, scallop transcriptomes revealed distinct expression profiles with larvae exposed to harmful algae (C. polykrikoides and A. anophagefferens) displaying broader responses in terms of significantly and differentially expressed (DE) transcripts (44,922 and 4,973; respectively) than larvae exposed to low pH or elevated temperature (559 and 467; respectively). Patterns of expression between larvae exposed to each harmful algal treatment were, however, strikingly different with larvae exposed to A. anophagefferens displaying large, significant declines in the expression of transcripts (n = 3,615; 87% of DE transcripts) whereas exposure to C. polykrikoides increased the abundance of transcripts, more than all other treatments combined (n = 43,668; 97% of DE transcripts). Larvae exposed to each stressor up-regulated a common set of 21 genes associated with protein synthesis, cellular metabolism, shell growth, and membrane transport. Larvae exposed to C. polykrikoides displayed large increases in antioxidant-associated transcripts, whereas acidification-exposed larvae increased abundance of transcripts associated with shell formation. After 10 days of exposure, each harmful algae caused declines in survival that were significantly greater than all other treatments. Collectively, this study reveals the common and unique transcriptional responses of bivalve larvae to stressors that promote population declines within coastal zones, providing insight into the means by which they promote mortality as well as traits possessed by bay scallops that enable potential resistance.}, }
@article {pmid31031931, year = {2019}, author = {Hyseni, C and Garrick, RC}, title = {The role of glacial-interglacial climate change in shaping the genetic structure of eastern subterranean termites in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {4621-4636}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5065}, pmid = {31031931}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The eastern subterranean termite, Reticulitermes flavipes, currently inhabits previously glaciated regions of the northeastern U.S., as well as the unglaciated southern Appalachian Mountains and surrounding areas. We hypothesized that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations have influenced the distribution of R. flavipes, and thus the evolutionary history of the species. We estimated contemporary and historical geographic distributions of R. flavipes by constructing Species Distribution Models (SDM). We also inferred the evolutionary and demographic history of the species using mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase I and II) and nuclear (endo-beta-1,4-glucanase) DNA sequence data. To do this, genetic populations were delineated using Bayesian spatial-genetic clustering, competing hypotheses about population divergence were assessed using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), and changes in population size were estimated using Bayesian skyline plots. SDMs identified areas in the north with suitable habitat during the transition from the Last Interglacial to the Last Glacial Maximum, as well as an expanding distribution from the mid-Holocene to the present. Genetic analyses identified three geographically cohesive populations, corresponding with northern, central, and southern portions of the study region. Based on ABC analyses, divergence between the Northern and Southern populations was the oldest, estimated to have occurred 64.80 thousand years ago (kya), which corresponds with the timing of available habitat in the north. The Central and Northern populations diverged in the mid-Holocene, 8.63 kya, after which the Central population continued to expand. Accordingly, phylogeographic patterns of R. flavipes in the southern Appalachians appear to have been strongly influenced by glacial-interglacial climate change.<br><br>OPEN RESEARCH BADGES: This article has been awarded Open Materials, Open Data Badges. All materials and data are publicly accessible via the Open Science Framework at https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.5hr7f31.}, }
@article {pmid31031283, year = {2019}, author = {Lee, AM}, title = {Citizen Scientists in Antarctica: FjordPhyto Approach to Understand Climate Change Affected Environments.}, journal = {Narrative inquiry in bioethics}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {21-24}, doi = {10.1353/nib.2019.0010}, pmid = {31031283}, issn = {2157-1740}, }
@article {pmid31030319, year = {2019}, author = {Nagai, S and Saitoh, TM and Yoshitake, S}, title = {Cultural ecosystem services provided by flowering of cherry trees under climate change: a case study of the relationship between the periods of flowering and festivals.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {63}, number = {8}, pages = {1051-1058}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-019-01719-9}, pmid = {31030319}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {2017-F-002//Joint Usage/Research Grant from the River Basin Research Center, Gifu University/ ; }, abstract = {In Japan, cherry blossoms are an important tourism resource and provide many cultural ecosystem service benefits. Under future warming conditions, we will require adaptions such as changing the timing of flower festivals to account for changes in the flowering phenology. In this study, we evaluated the coincidence between the flowering phenology of cherry blossoms and the associated festival periods in two Japanese cities under past, recent, and future climate conditions. We examined the situation in Shinhidaka, where the flower festival period changes every year, and Takayama, where the festival period is fixed to coincide with a shrine's annual spring festival. Currently, the average dates of beginning of flowering (more than four or five flowers open in an index tree; ~BBCH60) and full bloom (equal to or more than 80% of flowers open in an index tree; after BBCH65) in Shinhidaka (day of year (DOY) 126 and 130) are later than the long national holiday of Golden Week (DOY 119 to 125). The respective dates in Takayama (DOY 106 and 111, respectively) are later than the local a festival period (DOY 104 and 105). Under a scenario of 1.0 to 2.0 °C warming, the full blooming dates in Shinhidaka will coincide with Golden Week, whereas under 1.0 to 1.5 °C warming, the full blooming dates in Takayama will coincide with the spring festival period. Thus, moderate warming may increase the value of cherry blossoms to the tourism industry. Under more than 3.5 °C warming in Shinhidaka and 2.5 °C warming in Takayama, however, cherry blossoms will have already dropped by Golden Week and the spring festival period, respectively, suggesting that greater warming may decrease the value of this tourism resource.}, }
@article {pmid31029890, year = {2019}, author = {Nasir, MA and Duc Huynh, TL and Xuan Tram, HT}, title = {Role of financial development, economic growth &amp; foreign direct investment in driving climate change: A case of emerging ASEAN.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {242}, number = {}, pages = {131-141}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.112}, pmid = {31029890}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {In the context of remarkable economic growth and financial development in the emerging economies of East Asia, this paper attempts to shed light on the ecological consequences (CO2 emission) of economic growth, foreign direct investment and financial development in the selected ASEAN-5 economies. Drawing on the data from 1982 to 2014, we employed a set of quantitative techniques for panel data analysis which entailed Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) approaches. Our findings indicate that financial and economic development, as well as FDI, have a statistically significant long-run co-integrating relationship with environmental degradation (CO2 emissions) in the under analysis economies. It showed that in ASEAN-5 countries, economic growth, financial development and FDI leads to an increase in environmental degradation. The quadratic term for economic growth showed a negative impact on environmental degradation i.e. Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Our key findings manifest and emphasise the importance of appropriate policies for more inclusive economic and financial development and sustainable foreign direct investment which does not impede on the environment.}, }
@article {pmid31029753, year = {2019}, author = {Varo, R and Rodó, X and Bassat, Q}, title = {Climate change, cyclones and cholera - Implications for travel medicine and infectious diseases.}, journal = {Travel medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {6-7}, doi = {10.1016/j.tmaid.2019.04.007}, pmid = {31029753}, issn = {1873-0442}, mesh = {Cholera/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Humans ; Travel Medicine/*methods ; Vibrio cholerae ; }, }
@article {pmid31029138, year = {2019}, author = {Gronlund, CJ and Cameron, L and Shea, C and O'Neill, MS}, title = {Assessing the magnitude and uncertainties of the burden of selected diseases attributable to extreme heat and extreme precipitation under a climate change scenario in Michigan for the period 2041-2070.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {40}, doi = {10.1186/s12940-019-0483-5}, pmid = {31029138}, issn = {1476-069X}, support = {UL1 TR000433/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; EH001124//National Center for Environmental Health/ ; T42 OH008455/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States ; 2UL1TR000433-06//National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences/ ; K99ES026198//National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences/ ; K99 ES026198/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; T42 OH008455-09//National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health/ ; P30 ES017885/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; UE1 EH001124/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; P30 ES017885//National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Extreme heat (EH) and extreme precipitation (EP) events are expected to increase with climate change in many parts of the world. Characterizing the potential future morbidity and mortality burden of EH and EP and associated costs, as well as uncertainties in the estimates, can identify areas for public health intervention and inform adaptation strategies. We demonstrate a burden of disease and uncertainty assessment using data from Michigan, USA, and provide approaches for deriving these estimates for locations lacking certain data inputs.<br><br>METHODS: Case-crossover analysis adapted from previous Michigan-specific modeling was used to characterize the historical EH-mortality relationship by county poverty rate and age group. Historical EH-associated hospitalization and emergency room visit risks from the literature were adapted to Michigan. In the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's BenMAP software, we used a novel approach, with multiple spatially-varying exposures, to estimate all non-accidental mortality and morbidity occurring on EH days (EH days; days where maximum temperature 32.2-35 C or > 35 C) and EP days. We did so for two time periods: the &quot;historical&quot; period (1971-2000), and the &quot;projected&quot; period (2041-2070), by county.<br><br>RESULTS: The rate of all non-accidental mortality associated with EH days increased from 0.46/100,000 persons historically to 2.9/100,000 in the projected period, for 240 EH-attributable deaths annually. EH-associated ED visits increased from 12/100,000 persons to 68/100,000 persons, for 7800 EH-attributable emergency department visits. EP-associated ED visits increased minimally from 1.7 to 1.9/100,000 persons. Mortality and morbidity were highest among those aged 65+ (91% of all deaths). Projected health costs are dominated by EH-associated mortality ($280 million) and EH-associated emergency department visits ($14 million). A variety of sources contribute to a moderate-to-high degree of uncertainty around the point estimates, including uncertainty in the magnitude of climate change, population composition, baseline health rates, and exposure-response estimates.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The approach applied here showed that health burden due to climate may significantly rise for all Michigan counties by midcentury. The costs to health care and uncertainties in the estimates, given the potential for substantial attributable burden, provide additional information to guide adaptation measures for EH and EP.}, }
@article {pmid31028372, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Curbing global warming could save US$20 trillion.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {557}, number = {7706}, pages = {467-468}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05219-5}, pmid = {31028372}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31027461, year = {2019}, author = {Walter, S and Lörcher, I and Brüggemann, M}, title = {Scientific networks on Twitter: Analyzing scientists' interactions in the climate change debate.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {28}, number = {6}, pages = {696-712}, doi = {10.1177/0963662519844131}, pmid = {31027461}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {Scientific issues requiring urgent societal actions-such as climate change-have increased the need for communication and interaction between scientists and other societal actors. Social media platforms facilitate such exchanges. This study investigates who scientists interact with on Twitter, and whether their communication differs when engaging with actors beyond the scientific community. We focus on the climate change debate on Twitter and combine network analysis with automated content analysis. The results show that scientists interact most intensively with their peers, but also communication beyond the scientific community is important. The findings suggest that scientists adjust their communication style to their audience: They use more neutral language when communicating with other scientists, and more words expressing negative emotions when communicating with journalists, civil society, and politicians. Likewise, they stress certainty more when communicating with politicians, indicating that scientists use language strategically when communicating beyond the scientific community.}, }
@article {pmid31027434, year = {2019}, author = {Levy, BS}, title = {Increasing Risks for Armed Conflict: Climate Change, Food and Water Insecurity, and Forced Displacement.}, journal = {International journal of health services : planning, administration, evaluation}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {20731419845249}, doi = {10.1177/0020731419845249}, pmid = {31027434}, issn = {1541-4469}, abstract = {The interrelated factors of climate change, decreased access to freshwater, and forced displacement are heightening the risk of armed conflict. Higher temperatures and extremes of precipitation are contributing to food and water insecurity, forced displacement, and sociopolitical tensions. Health professionals can help to address these problems through education, advocacy, and other activities that aim to mitigate and adapt to climate change and minimize the risk of armed conflict.}, }
@article {pmid31025468, year = {2019}, author = {Godde, C and Dizyee, K and Ash, A and Thornton, P and Sloat, L and Roura, E and Henderson, B and Herrero, M}, title = {Climate change and variability impacts on grazing herds: Insights from a system dynamics approach for semi-arid Australian rangelands.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {9}, pages = {3091-3109}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14669}, pmid = {31025468}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation/ ; //CGIAR Trust Fund/ ; //Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation/ ; }, abstract = {Grazing livestock are an important source of food and income for millions of people worldwide. Changes in mean climate and increasing climate variability are affecting grasslands' carrying capacity, thus threatening the livelihood of millions of people as well as the health of grassland ecosystems. Compared with cropping systems, relatively little is known about the impact of such climatic changes on grasslands and livestock productivity and the adaptation responses available to farmers. In this study, we analysed the relationship between changes in mean precipitation, precipitation variability, farming practices and grazing cattle using a system dynamics approach for a semi-arid Australian rangeland system. We found that forage production and animal stocking rates were significantly affected by drought intensities and durations as well as by long-term climate trends. After a drought event, herd size recovery times ranged from years to decades in the absence of proactive restocking through animal purchases. Decreases in the annual precipitation means or increases in the interannual (year-to-year) and intra-annual (month-to-month) precipitation variability, all reduced herd sizes. The contribution of farming practices versus climate effect on herd dynamics varied depending on the herd characteristics considered. Climate contributed the most to the variance in stocking rates, followed by forage productivity levels and feeding supplementation practices (with or without urea and molasses). While intensification strategies and favourable climates increased long-term herd sizes, they also resulted in larger reductions in animal numbers during droughts and raised total enteric methane emissions. In the face of future climate trends, the grazing sector will need to increase its adaptability. Understanding which farming strategies can be beneficial, where, and when, as well as the enabling mechanisms required to implement them, will be critical for effectively improving rangelands and the livelihoods of pastoralists worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid31025387, year = {2019}, author = {Inouye, DW}, title = {Effects of climate change on alpine plants and their pollinators.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14104}, pmid = {31025387}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {DEB-1354104//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Alpine environments are among the habitats most strongly affected by climate change, and consequently their unique plants and pollinators are faced with the challenge of adapting or going extinct. Changes in temperature and precipitation affect snowpack and snowmelt, resulting in changes in the growing season in this environment where plant growth and pollinator activity are constrained to the snow-free season, which can vary significantly across the landscape if there is significant topographic complexity. As in other ecosystems, the resulting changes in phenology are not uniform among species, creating the potential for altered and new interspecific interactions. New plant and animal species are arriving as lower altitude species move up with warming temperatures, introducing new competitors and generating changes in plant-pollinator interactions. Repeating historical surveys, taking advantage of museum collections, and using new technology will facilitate our understanding of how plants and pollinators are responding to the changing alpine environment.}, }
@article {pmid31024763, year = {2019}, author = {Li, J and Wu, J and Peng, K and Fan, G and Yu, H and Wang, W and He, Y}, title = {Simulating the effects of climate change across the geographical distribution of two medicinal plants in the genus Nardostachys.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6730}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.6730}, pmid = {31024763}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background: The medicinal plants of Radix et Rhizoma Nardostachyos include Nardostachys jatamansi and N. chinensis. Traditionally, the two plants have been used to treat many diseases. Because of their special aroma, they are also commonly used in the food and cosmetics industry. Recently, N. jatamansi and N. chinensis have been overexploited due to their economic importance, resulting in a sharp decline in their wild resources. Predicting potential distributions of the genus Nardostachys under different climate scenarios and understanding its preferred habitat are of great significance for their conservation, artificial cultivation, and assessment of their value.<br><br>Methods: The Maxent model was used to predict the potential geographical distributions of the genus Nardostachys under current and future climatic conditions based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s. These data were used to study the effects of climate variables.<br><br>Results: The results show that the potential distribution of the two species will increase, thus more suitable habitats will be present in China. The suitable habitat for N. chinensis presents a relatively stable growth compared to N. jatamansi. In addition, precipitation plays a crucial role in modeling the effects of climate change on the genus Nardostachys. This study provides theoretical guidance for the cultivation of N. chinensis.}, }
@article {pmid31023518, year = {2019}, author = {Bouvet, L and Chassard, D}, title = {Fighting global warming: it's time to reduce waste!.}, journal = {International journal of obstetric anesthesia}, volume = {39}, number = {}, pages = {150-151}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijoa.2019.03.001}, pmid = {31023518}, issn = {1532-3374}, }
@article {pmid31022612, year = {2019}, author = {Tong, S and Ebi, K}, title = {Preventing and mitigating health risks of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {174}, number = {}, pages = {9-13}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.04.012}, pmid = {31022612}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Global environmental changes, driven by the consequences of human activities and population growth, are altering our planet in ways that pose current threats to human health, with the magnitude of these threats projected to increase over coming decades if additional, proactive actions are not taken. Global changes, unprecedented in their geospatial and temporal scales, include climate change, marine pollution, ozone layer depletion, soil degradation, and urbanization. Climate change is the best studied. The health risks of a changing climate will become increasingly urgent as climate change affects the quantity and quality of food and water, increases air pollution, alters the distribution of vectors/pathogens and disease transmission dynamics, and reduces eco-physical buffering against extreme weather and climate events. Health systems urgently need to be improved to effectively address these emerging challenges. This paper provides an overview of the health consequences of climate change, and discusses how health risks can be minimized and avoided via mitigation and adaptation pathways.}, }
@article {pmid31022212, year = {2019}, author = {Legault, S and Houle, D and Plouffe, A and Ameztegui, A and Kuehn, D and Chase, L and Blondlot, A and Perkins, TD}, title = {Perceptions of U.S. and Canadian maple syrup producers toward climate change, its impacts, and potential adaptation measures.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0215511}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0215511}, pmid = {31022212}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The production of maple syrup is an important cultural and economic activity directly related to the climate of northeastern North America. As a result, there are signs that climate change could have negative impacts on maple syrup production in the next decades, particularly for regions located at the southern margins of the sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) range. The purpose of this survey study is to present the beliefs and opinions of maple syrup producers of Canada (N = 241) and the U.S. (N = 113) on climate change in general, its impacts on sugar maple health and maple syrup production, and potential adaptation measures. Using conditional inference classification trees, we examined how the socio-economic profile of respondents and the geographic location and size of respondents' sugar bushes shaped the responses of survey participants. While a majority (75%) of respondents are confident that the average temperature on Earth is increasing, less than half (46%) believe that climate change will have negative impacts on maple syrup yield in the next 30 years. Political view was a significant predictor of these results, with respondents at the right right and center-right of the political spectrum being less likely to believe in climate change and less likely to anticipate negative effects of climate change on maple syrup production. In addition, 77% of the participants indicated an interest in adopting adaptation strategies if those could increase maple syrup production. This interest was greater for respondents using vacuum tubing for sap collection than other collection methods. However, for many respondents (particularly in Canada), lack of information was identified as a constraint limiting adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31021067, year = {2019}, author = {Malena-Chan, R}, title = {A narrative model for exploring climate change engagement among young community leaders.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {157-166}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.07}, pmid = {31021067}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Decades of widespread knowledge about climate change have not translated into adequate action to address impacts on population health and health equity in Canada. Research has shown that context-based perceptions and interpretations mediate engagement. Exploring climate change engagement involves inquiry into contextual experience.<br><br>METHODS: This qualitative study has employed narrative methodology to interpret the meaning of climate change among community leaders in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, age 20-40 (n = 10). Climate change narratives were explored both structurally and thematically.<br><br>RESULTS: A model was developed to organize results and to describe concepts of fidelity and dissonance within participant narratives. Findings suggested that knowledge of climate change and personal motivation to act did not preclude narrative dissonance, which served as a barrier to a meaningful personal response. Dissonance can result where internal and external barriers mediate mobilization at moments in the plot: (1) moving from knowledge of the challenge to a sense of agency about it; (2) from agency to a sense of responsibility to choose to address it; (3) from responsibility to a sense of capacity to produce desirable outcomes despite contextual challenges; and (4) from capacity to a moral sense of activation in context. Without narrative fidelity, meaningful mobilization can be hindered.<br><br>CONCLUSION: A narrative model is useful for exploring climate change engagement and highlights opportunities for a population health approach to address the conditions that hinder meaningful mobilization. By framing climate change narratives with emotional and moral logic, population health framing could help young leaders overcome internal and external barriers to engagement.}, }
@article {pmid31021066, year = {2019}, author = {MacIntyre, E and Khanna, S and Darychuk, A and Copes, R and Schwartz, B}, title = {Evidence synthesis - Evaluating risk communication during extreme weather and climate change: a scoping review.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {142-156}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.06}, pmid = {31021066}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Communicating risk to the public continues to be a challenge for public health practitioners working in the area of climate change. We conducted a scoping literature review on the evaluation of risk communication for extreme weather and climate change to inform local public health messaging, consistent with requirements under the Ontario Public Health Standards (OPHS), which were updated in 2018 to include effective communication regarding climate change and extreme weather.<br><br>METHODS: Search strategies were developed by library information specialists and used to retrieve peer-reviewed academic and grey literature from bibliographic databases (Medline, Embase, Scopus and CINAHL) and Google country specific searches, respectively. The search strategy was validated through a workshop with experts and community stakeholders, with expertise in environment, health, emergency management and risk communication.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 43 articles were included. These articles addressed issues such as: climate change (n = 22), flooding (n = 12), hurricane events (n = 5), extreme heat (n = 2), and wild fires (n = 2). Studies were predominantly from the US (n = 14), Europe (n = 6) and Canada (n = 5).<br><br>CONCLUSION: To meet the OPHS 2018, public health practitioners need to engage in effective risk communication to motivate local actions that mitigate the effects of extreme weather and climate change. Based on the scoping review, risk communication efforts during short-term extreme weather events appear to be more effective than efforts to communicate risk around climate change. This distinction could highlight a unique opportunity for public health to adapt strategies commonly used for extreme weather to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31021064, year = {2019}, author = {Kingsley, M and , }, title = {Commentary - Climate change, health and green space co-benefits.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {131-135}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.04}, pmid = {31021064}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {We examined two of humanity's present-day challenges, climate change and chronic diseases, in relation to the co-benefits that green spaces provide to human health and the environment. The reduction of several chronic diseases and associated symptoms, including anxiety, obesity and cardiovascular disease, has been associated with the presence of and access to green space. Green spaces also contribute to a number of environmental health benefits and have been shown to reduce the likelihood of flooding, improve air quality and provide cooling and shade. These co-benefits address both the symptoms of several chronic diseases and associated risk factors along with the environmental and health impacts of climate change. This article explores how to maximize the co-benefits of green spaces through two examples of multi-sectoral collaborations. With these two examples, we have provided a model of collective collaboration that aims to address complex issues, such as climate change and chronic diseases, through the common intervention of green spaces.}, }
@article {pmid31021063, year = {2019}, author = {Richards, G and Frehs, J and Myers, E and Van Bibber, M}, title = {Commentary - The Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program: Indigenous Climate Leaders' Championing Adaptation Effort.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {127-130}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.03}, pmid = {31021063}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {The Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program (CCHAP) is a program within the First Nations Inuit Health Branch of Indigenous Services Canada (which was previously under the responsibility of Health Canada). The CCHAP supports Inuit and First Nation communities in mitigating and adapting to the health impacts of climate change. The impacts of climate change on Indigenous health can be observed in multiple areas including, but not limited to, food security, cultural medicines, mental health and landbased practices. This program seeks to address the needs of climate change and health in First Nation and Inuit communities to support resiliency and adaptation to a changing climate both now and in the future through its emphasis on youth and capacity building. The commentary is based on the Program's eleven years of experience working with and for Indigenous communities and provides an overview of the CCHAP model and the work it has and continues to support. This paper demonstrates three examples of community-based projects to mitigate and adapt to the health impacts of climate change to demonstrate climate change resiliency within Indigenous communities.}, }
@article {pmid31021062, year = {2019}, author = {Kipp, A and Cunsolo, A and Vodden, K and King, N and Manners, S and Harper, SL}, title = {At-a-glance - Climate change impacts on health and wellbeing in rural and remote regions across Canada: a synthesis of the literature.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {122-126}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.02}, pmid = {31021062}, issn = {2368-738X}, abstract = {This article provides a synthesis of the forthcoming first order draft of the Canadian Government's National Assessment on Climate Change 'Rural and Remote' chapter, highlighting key health concerns from the literature associated with climate change in rural and remote regions, as well as existing and future adaptation strategies. To support the health and wellbeing of those experiencing the negative effects of climate change, and utilizing systematic search processes, this synthesis article highlights the importance of considering the specific socio-cultural, economic, and geographic elements and existing expertise of individuals and communities in rural and remote regions.}, }
@article {pmid31021061, year = {2019}, author = {Cunsolo, A and Harper, SL}, title = {Editorial - Climate change and health: a grand challenge and grand opportunity for public health in Canada.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {119-121}, doi = {10.24095/hpcdp.39.4.01}, pmid = {31021061}, issn = {2368-738X}, }
@article {pmid31018473, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, B and Deveson, ED and Waters, C and Spessa, A and Lawton, D and Feng, P and Liu, L}, title = {Future climate change likely to reduce the Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera) seasonal outbreaks.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {668}, number = {}, pages = {947-957}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.439}, pmid = {31018473}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Grasshoppers/*physiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate is a major limiting factor for insect distributions and it is expected that a changing climate will likely alter spatial patterns of pest outbreaks. The Australian plague locust (APL) Chortoicetes terminifera, is the most economically important locust species in Australia. Invasions cause large scale economic damage to agricultural crops and pastures. Understanding the regional-scale and long-term dynamics is a prerequisite to develop effective control and preventive management strategies. In this study, we used a 32-year locust survey database to uncover the relationship between historical bioclimatic variables and spatial seasonal outbreaks by developing two machine learning species distribution models (SDMs), random forest and boosted regression trees. The explanatory variables were ranked by contribution to the generated models. The bio-climate models were then projected into a future climate change scenario (RCP8.5) using downscaled 34 global climate models (GCMs) to assess how climate change may alter APL seasonal distribution patterns in eastern Australia. Our results show that the model for the distribution of spring outbreaks performed better than those for summer and autumn, based on statistical evaluation criteria. The spatial models of seasonal outbreaks indicate that the areas subject to APL outbreaks were likely to decrease in all seasons. Multi-GCM ensemble means show the largest decrease in area was for spring outbreaks, reduced by 93-94% by 2071-2090, while the area of summer outbreaks decreased by 78-90%, and 67-74% for autumn outbreaks. The bioclimatic variables could explain 78-98% outbreak areas change. This study represents an important step toward the assessment of the effects of the changing climate on locust outbreaks and can help inform future priorities for regional mitigation efforts in the context of global climate change in eastern Australia.}, }
@article {pmid31018443, year = {2019}, author = {Fonseca, AR and Santos, JA}, title = {Predicting hydrologic flows under climate change: The Tâmega Basin as an analog for the Mediterranean region.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {668}, number = {}, pages = {1013-1024}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.435}, pmid = {31018443}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology of the Tâmega River basin, northern Portugal, are assessed by comparing simulated hydrologic scenarios derived from both observational climate databases for a recent past period (1950-2015) and EURO-CORDEX model simulations for the future (2021-2100). Future climate change scenarios are based on an ensemble of five climate model chain experiments and on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Basin-mean annual temperatures are ca. 10% or 20% warmer than in recent past climate (12.4 °C) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Furthermore, basin-mean annual precipitation decreases by approximately 8% or 13%, when compared to recent past (1255 mm). The Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) is applied to the historical data and to each of the five model simulations separately so as to simulate potential changes in flowrates. The model is calibrated and validated using 5 hydrometric stations, achieving satisfactory results regarding flowrate simulation. A reconstruction of flowrates within the entire river basin and over the historical period is accomplished, which is particularly useful when observed data is missing. The projected climate change impacts on annual flowrates reveal a decrease from 18% to 28% relative to observations (70.9 m3 s-1). These findings provide valuable information for the future management and planning of water resources (water security) and can be largely generalized not only to other basins in Portugal, but also over most of Southern Europe and throughout the Mediterranean Basin, where significant warming and drying trends are widespread footprints of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31016366, year = {2019}, author = {Lehmkuhl, D}, title = {[Climate change and its significance in the healthcare community: history, landmarks, and major players].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {546-555}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02935-9}, pmid = {31016366}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {Since the early 1990s, science has addressed anthropogenic climate change as a health issue. From about 2000 onwards, the scientific literature and evidence on the health effects of climate change has been rapidly increasing. Global warming is now considered an &quot;existential threat to humankind,&quot; and leading health organizations call climate change &quot;the defining issue for public health in the 21 century&quot; or a &quot;public health emergency.&quot;In recent years, climate change as a health issue has become more and more prominent in health communities on the national and international level.The growing importance of this issue in the international health community and the stages, milestones, and topics of this development are described and what health professionals and health organizations can do to protect health from climate change is demonstrated. The decisive role of The Lancet and the reports of its international commissions, the British Medical Journal (BMJ), and the World Health Organisation (WHO) in setting the agenda is underlined. Important actors, organizations, initiatives as well as new concepts like &quot;planetary health&quot; and &quot;planetary boundaries&quot; are introduced. In the German health sector, however, climate change - apart from niches - has not been much of an issue so far. Neither in the health sector, climate policies, nor climate movement the connections between climate change and health are sufficiently understood, considered, or implemented. A look beyond borders shows what might be possible and necessary in view of the possibly &quot;greatest crisis we have ever faced.&quot;The article is based on the author's experience, cooperation, and exchange with parties that are engaged with the issue and on years of literature research. He initiated the campaign of German doctors calling on their pension funds to divest from fossil fuels and is a founding and present board member of the &quot;German Alliance on Health and Climate Change,&quot; which was founded 2017.}, }
@article {pmid31016365, year = {2019}, author = {Kendrovski, V and Schmoll, O}, title = {Priorities for protecting health from climate change in the WHO European Region: recent regional activities.}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {537-545}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02943-9}, pmid = {31016365}, issn = {1437-1588}, support = {001//World Health Organization/International ; }, abstract = {Evidence of the impact of climate change on health is growing. Health systems need to be prepared and gradually adapt to the effects of climate change, including extreme weather events.Fossil fuel combustion as the driver of climate change poses a tremendous burden of disease. In turn, cutting greenhouse gas emissions in all sectors will achieve health co-benefits. If all countries meet the Paris Agreement by 2030, the annual number of avoidable premature deaths could total 138,000 across the entire European Region of the World Health Organization (WHO).Several international frameworks promote a stronger commitment by countries to implementing the necessary adaptations in the health sector and to addressing health considerations in adaptation measures in other sectors. The WHO has a mandate from its member states to identify solutions and help prevent or reduce health impacts, including those from climate change.National governments are continuing to establish public health adaptation measures, which provide a rationale for and trigger action on climate change by the health community. Effective national responses to climate risks require strategic analyses of current and anticipated threats. Health professionals need to play a proactive role in promoting health arguments and evidence in the formulation of national climate change adaptation and mitigation responses. To this end, country capacities need to be further strengthened to identify and address local health risks posed by climate change and to develop, implement and evaluate health-focused interventions through integrated approaches. Building climate-resilient and environmentally sustainable health care facilities is an essential pillar of health sector leadership to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31015996, year = {2019}, author = {Gómez-Gras, D and Linares, C and de Caralt, S and Cebrian, E and Frleta-Valić, M and Montero-Serra, I and Pagès-Escolà, M and López-Sendino, P and Garrabou, J}, title = {Response diversity in Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages facing climate change: Insights from a multispecific thermotolerance experiment.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {4168-4180}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5045}, pmid = {31015996}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change threatens coastal benthic communities on a global scale. However, the potential effects of ongoing warming on mesophotic temperate reefs at the community level remain poorly understood. Investigating how different members of these communities will respond to the future expected environmental conditions is, therefore, key to anticipating their future trajectories and developing specific management and conservation strategies. Here, we examined the responses of some of the main components of the highly diverse Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages to thermal stress. We performed thermotolerance experiments with different temperature treatments (from 26 to 29°C) with 10 species from different phyla (three anthozoans, six sponges and one ascidian) and different structural roles. Overall, we observed species-specific contrasting responses to warming regardless of phyla or growth form. Moreover, the responses ranged from highly resistant species to sensitive species and were mostly in agreement with previous field observations from mass mortality events (MMEs) linked to Mediterranean marine heat waves. Our results unravel the diversity of responses to warming in coralligenous outcrops and suggest the presence of potential winners and losers in the face of climate change. Finally, this study highlights the importance of accounting for species-specific vulnerabilities and response diversity when forecasting the future trajectories of temperate benthic communities in a warming ocean.}, }
@article {pmid31010935, year = {2019}, author = {Hopkinson, NS and Hart, N and Jenkins, G and Rosenfeld, M and Smyth, AR and Wilkinson, AJK and Kaminski, N}, title = {Climate change and lung health: presidential failure, professional responsibility.}, journal = {Thorax}, volume = {74}, number = {7}, pages = {627-628}, doi = {10.1136/thoraxjnl-2019-213184}, pmid = {31010935}, issn = {1468-3296}, }
@article {pmid31010922, year = {2019}, author = {Diffenbaugh, NS and Burke, M}, title = {Global warming has increased global economic inequality.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {20}, pages = {9808-9813}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1816020116}, pmid = {31010922}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Understanding the causes of economic inequality is critical for achieving equitable economic development. To investigate whether global warming has affected the recent evolution of inequality, we combine counterfactual historical temperature trajectories from a suite of global climate models with extensively replicated empirical evidence of the relationship between historical temperature fluctuations and economic growth. Together, these allow us to generate probabilistic country-level estimates of the influence of anthropogenic climate forcing on historical economic output. We find very high likelihood that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased economic inequality between countries. For example, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has been reduced 17-31% at the poorest four deciles of the population-weighted country-level per capita GDP distribution, yielding a ratio between the top and bottom deciles that is 25% larger than in a world without global warming. As a result, although between-country inequality has decreased over the past half century, there is ∼90% likelihood that global warming has slowed that decrease. The primary driver is the parabolic relationship between temperature and economic growth, with warming increasing growth in cool countries and decreasing growth in warm countries. Although there is uncertainty in whether historical warming has benefited some temperate, rich countries, for most poor countries there is >90% likelihood that per capita GDP is lower today than if global warming had not occurred. Thus, our results show that, in addition to not sharing equally in the direct benefits of fossil fuel use, many poor countries have been significantly harmed by the warming arising from wealthy countries' energy consumption.}, }
@article {pmid31007726, year = {2019}, author = {Thomas, K and Hardy, RD and Lazrus, H and Mendez, M and Orlove, B and Rivera-Collazo, I and Roberts, JT and Rockman, M and Warner, BP and Winthrop, R}, title = {Explaining differential vulnerability to climate change: A social science review.}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {e565}, doi = {10.1002/wcc.565}, pmid = {31007726}, issn = {1757-7780}, abstract = {The varied effects of recent extreme weather events around the world exemplify the uneven impacts of climate change on populations, even within relatively small geographic regions. Differential human vulnerability to environmental hazards results from a range of social, economic, historical, and political factors, all of which operate at multiple scales. While adaptation to climate change has been the dominant focus of policy and research agendas, it is essential to ask as well why some communities and peoples are disproportionately exposed to and affected by climate threats. The cases and synthesis presented here are organized around four key themes (resource access, governance, culture, and knowledge), which we approach from four social science fields (cultural anthropology, archaeology, human geography, and sociology). Social scientific approaches to human vulnerability draw vital attention to the root causes of climate change threats and the reasons that people are forced to adapt to them. Because vulnerability is a multidimensional process rather than an unchanging state, a dynamic social approach to vulnerability is most likely to improve mitigation and adaptation planning efforts. This article is categorized under:Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Values-Based Approach to Vulnerability and Adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31007600, year = {2018}, author = {Hernandez, Y and Barbosa, P and Corral, S and Rivas, S}, title = {An institutional analysis to address climate change adaptation in Tenerife (Canary Islands).}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; policy}, volume = {89}, number = {}, pages = {184-191}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2018.07.017}, pmid = {31007600}, issn = {1462-9011}, abstract = {Heat waves and Saharan dust outbreaks have been acquiring more frequency and intensity in the Canary Islands during the last decades. Both climatic hazards are known to produce impacts on human health such as mortality (due to heat waves) and morbidity (due to dusty weather). This work addresses possible climate adaptation policies in Tenerife assuming the increasing impact of heat waves and Saharan dust outbreaks in the island under a climate change scenario. It explores the institutional setting of climate change adaptation planning in Tenerife and evaluates the statu quo of adaptation planning in the island through the engagement of key social actors. An historical review of the local and regional press articles and legislation, an in-depth round of interviews, together with questionnaires to the main social actors allows framing the social and political context in which climate change adaptation in Tenerife is embedded. Key social actors were engaged, including international organisations, atmospheric research centres, local Universities, regional and insular governments, trade unions, and environmental NGOs, among others. The main obstacles mentioned by the social actors that hinder the development of an effective climate adaptation policy address scientific knowledge, data collection and policy making, focusing on the uncertainty of climate models, the lack of epidemiological data and contrasting opinions regarding the existing climate adaptation policies. Public participation, mainstreaming of climate policies and an integrated approach between mitigation and adaptation plans were identified as key policy issues. The outcomes of this study could be meaningful for climate adaptation initiatives at local or regional level, such as the Global Covenant of Mayors, that intend to promote climate resilience through the setup of climate adaptation strategies and plans at municipality level.}, }
@article {pmid31007291, year = {2019}, author = {Feng, X and Liu, C and Xie, F and Lu, J and Chiu, LS and Tintera, G and Chen, B}, title = {Precipitation characteristic changes due to global warming in a high-resolution (16 km) ECMWF simulation.}, journal = {Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)}, volume = {145}, number = {718}, pages = {303-317}, doi = {10.1002/qj.3432}, pmid = {31007291}, issn = {0035-9009}, abstract = {Changes in precipitation amount, intensity and frequency in response to global warming are examined using global high-resolution (16 km) climate model simulations based on the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) conducted under Project Athena. Our study shows the increases of zonal-mean total precipitation in all latitudes except the northern subtropics (15°-30°N) and southern subtropics-to-midlatitudes (30°-40°S). The probability distribution function (PDF) changes in different latitudes suggest a higher occurrence of light precipitation (LP; ≤1 mm/day) and heavy precipitation (HP; ≥30 mm/day) at the expense of moderate precipitation reduction (MP; 1-30 mm/day) from Tropics to midlatitudes, but an increase in all categories of precipitation in polar regions. On the other hand, the PDF change with global warming in different precipitation climatological zones presents another image. For all regions and seasons examined, there is an HP increase at the cost of MP, but LP varies. The reduced MP in richer precipitation zones resides in the PDF peak intensities, which linearly increase with the precipitation climatology zones. In particular in the Tropics (20°S to 20°N), the precipitation PDF has a flatter distribution (i.e. HP and LP increases with MP reduction) except for the Sahara Desert. In the primary precipitation zones in the subtropics (20°-40°) of both hemispheres, precipitation over land switches toward higher intensity (HP increases, but MP and LP decrease) in both winter and summer, while precipitation over ocean in both seasons shows a flattening trend in the intensity distribution. For the major precipitation zones of the mid-to-high latitude belt (40°-70°), PDF of precipitation tends to be flatter over ocean in summer, but switches toward higher intensities over land in both summer and winter, as well as over ocean in winter.}, }
@article {pmid31005841, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, K and Pan, Q and Yu, D and Wang, L and Liu, Z and Li, X and Liu, X}, title = {Systemically modeling the relationship between climate change and wheat aphid abundance.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {674}, number = {}, pages = {392-400}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.143}, pmid = {31005841}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Aphids/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Models, Statistical ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {Climate change influences all living beings. Wheat aphids deplete the nutritional value of wheat and affect the production of wheat in changing climate. In this study, we attempt to explain the ecological mechanisms of how climate change affects wheat aphids by simulating the relationship between climate and the abundance of wheat aphids, which will not only aid in improving wheat aphid forecasting and the effectiveness of prevention and treatment, but also help mitigate food crises. Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) are an effective tool for portraying complex systems. Using Sitobion avenae and climatological data collected in China, we made use of differential evolution (DE) algorithms to construct FCM models that directly illustrate the effect of climate on wheat aphid abundance. The relationships among climate and wheat aphids at different growth stages (I-III instar larvae, IV instar larvae with wings, IV instar larvae without wings, adult with wings, adult without wings) were established. The analysis results from the FCM models show that temperature positively influences wheat aphids most. Moreover, these models can be used to determine the numerical value of each climate factor and the abundance of wheat aphids quantitatively. Furthermore, the two overall relationship models between climate and wheat aphids were constructed and the experimental results show that natural enemies and highest daily temperature affect wheat aphids most. Natural enemies and highest daily temperature exert negative and positive impacts on wheat aphids respectively. Some interrelationships among wheat aphids at all growth stages and the internal relationships among climate factors were also shown.}, }
@article {pmid31004118, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmadi, M and Hemami, MR and Kaboli, M and Malekian, M and Zimmermann, NE}, title = {Extinction risks of a Mediterranean neo-endemism complex of mountain vipers triggered by climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {6332}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-42792-9}, pmid = {31004118}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change is among the most important drivers of biodiversity decline through shift or shrinkage in suitable habitat of species. Mountain vipers of the genus Montivipera are under extreme risk from climate changes given their evolutionary history and geographic distribution. In this study, we divided all Montivipera species into three phylogenetic-geographic Montivipera clades (PGMC; Bornmuelleri, Raddei and Xanthina) and applied an ensemble ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach under different climatic scenarios to assess changes in projected suitable habitats of these species. Based on the predicted range losses, we assessed the projected extinction risk of the species relative to IUCN Red List Criteria. Our result revealed a strong decline in suitable habitats for all PGMCs (63.8%, 79.3% and 96.8% for Xanthina, Raddei and Bornmuelleri, respectively, by 2070 and under 8.5 RCP scenario) with patterns of altitudinal range shifts in response to projected climate change. We found that the mountains close to the Mediterranean Sea are exposed to the highest threats in the future (84.6 ± 9.1 percent range loss). We also revealed that disjunct populations of Montivipera will be additionally highly isolated and fragmented in the future. We argue that leveraging climate niche projections into the risk assessment provides the opportunity to implement IUCN criteria and better assess forthcoming extinction risks of species.}, }
@article {pmid30999175, year = {2019}, author = {Purakayastha, TJ and Bera, T and Bhaduri, D and Sarkar, B and Mandal, S and Wade, P and Kumari, S and Biswas, S and Menon, M and Pathak, H and Tsang, DCW}, title = {A review on biochar modulated soil condition improvements and nutrient dynamics concerning crop yields: Pathways to climate change mitigation and global food security.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {227}, number = {}, pages = {345-365}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2019.03.170}, pmid = {30999175}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; Charcoal/chemistry/*pharmacology ; Crops, Agricultural/drug effects/growth &amp; development ; Nutrients/*analysis ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The beneficial role of biochar on improvement of soil quality, C sequestration, and enhancing crop yield is widely reported. As such there is not much consolidated information available linking biochar modulated soil condition improvement and soil nutrient availability on crop yields. The present review paper addresses the above issues by compilation of world literature on biochar and a new dimension is introduced in this review by performing a meta-analysis of published data by using multivariate statistical analysis. Hence this review is a new in its kind and is useful to the broad spectrum of readers. Generally, alkalinity in biochar increases with increase in pyrolysis temperature and majority of the biochar is alkaline in nature except a few which are acidic. The N content in many biochar was reported to be more than 4% as well as less than 0.5%. Poultry litter biochar is a rich source of P (3.12%) and K (7.40%), while paper mill sludge biochar is higher in Ca content (31.1%) and swine solids biochar in Zn (49810 mg kg-1), and Fe (74800 mg kg-1) contents. The effect of biochar on enhancing soil pH was higher in Alfisol, Ferrosol and Acrisol. Soil application of biochar could on an average increase (78%), decrease (16%), or show no effect on crop yields under different soil types. Biochar produced at a lower pyrolysis temperature could deliver greater soil nutrient availabilities than that prepared at higher temperature. Principal component analysis (PCA) of available data shows an inverse relationship between [pyrolysis temperature and soil pH], and [biochar application rate and soil cation exchange capacity]. The PCA also suggests that the original soil properties and application rate strongly control crop yield stimulations via biochar amendments. Finally, biochar application shows net soil C gains while also serving for increased plant biomass production that strongly recommends biochar as a useful soil amendment. Therefore, the application of biochar to soils emerges as a 'win-win strategy' for sustainable waste management, climate change mitigation and food security.}, }
@article {pmid30998388, year = {2019}, author = {Schmidt, CW}, title = {The Future of Stunting: Potential Scenarios under Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {127}, number = {4}, pages = {44002}, doi = {10.1289/EHP5049}, pmid = {30998388}, issn = {1552-9924}, }
@article {pmid30997525, year = {2019}, author = {Schoierer, J and Mertes, H and Wershofen, B and Böse-O'Reilly, S}, title = {[Training modules on climate change, heat, and health for medical assistants and nurses in outpatient care].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {620-628}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02942-w}, pmid = {30997525}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {The number of heatwaves is going to increase due to climate change and will pose a high health risk especially for elderly people. Additional risk factors like immobility, the need for care, chronic and acute diseases (worsening of symptoms), and the intake of medications lead to an increased sensitivity to heat in this particular age group. Nursing staff and medical assistants working in general practices are two important professions to reach the risk group during heatwaves and provide preventive and curative care.The &quot;Klinikum der Universität München&quot; has developed an interprofessional blended-learning program to sensitize for this topic and to enable those two professional groups to react adequately to heat events. It combines independent learning with the help of online videos and presentations and a face-to-face component for the practical application of knowledge through examples. The concept, the results, as well as the conclusion of the project, which completed in October 2018, are presented in this article.Educational programs are part of the adaption strategies to heat events. The &quot;Recommendations for the creation of Heat Action Plans for the Protection of Human Health&quot; state that advanced trainings and education of healthcare and social workers help to communicate relevant content to adequately act during heat periods. The developed educational program fulfills this demand.To enable the widest possible use, the training materials are available free of charge and can be downloaded from www.klimawandelundbildung.de .}, }
@article {pmid30995250, year = {2019}, author = {Smith, MA and Sullender, BK and Koeppen, WC and Kuletz, KJ and Renner, HM and Poe, AJ}, title = {An assessment of climate change vulnerability for Important Bird Areas in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0214573}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0214573}, pmid = {30995250}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Recently available downscaled ocean climate models for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc offer the opportunity to assess climate vulnerability for upper trophic level consumers such as marine birds. We analyzed seasonal and annual spatial projections from three climate models for two physical climate variables (seawater temperature and sea ice) and three forage variables (large copepods, euphausiids, and benthic infauna), comparing projected conditions from a recent time period (2003-2012) to a future time period (2030-2039). We focused the analyses on core areas within globally significant Important Bird Areas, and developed indices of the magnitude of projected change and vulnerability agreement among models. All three climate models indicated a high degree of change for seawater temperature warming (highest in the central and eastern Aleutian Islands) and ice loss (most significant in the eastern Bering Sea) across scales, and we found those changes to be significant for every species and virtually every core area assessed. There was low model agreement for the forage variables; while the majority of core areas were identified as climate vulnerable by one or more models (72% for large copepods, 73% for euphausiids, and 94% for benthic infauna), very few were agreed upon by all three models (only 6% of euphausiid-forager core areas). Based on the magnitude-agreement score, euphausiid biomass decline affected core areas for fulmars, gulls, and auklets, especially along the outer shelf and Aleutian Islands. Benthic biomass decline affected eiders along the inner shelf, and large copepod decline was significant for storm-petrels and auklets in the western Aleutians. Overall, 12% of core areas indicated climate vulnerability for all variables assessed. Modeling and interpreting biological parameters to project future dynamics remains complex; the strong signal for projected physical changes raised concerns about lagged responses such as distribution shifts, breeding failures, mortality events, and population declines.}, }
@article {pmid30995228, year = {2019}, author = {Lippi, CA and Stewart-Ibarra, AM and Loor, MEFB and Zambrano, JED and Lopez, NAE and Blackburn, JK and Ryan, SJ}, title = {Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e0007322}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322}, pmid = {30995228}, issn = {1935-2735}, abstract = {Arboviral disease transmission by Aedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti in Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease transmission. ENMs built with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) algorithm and a suite of environmental variables were assessed for agreement and accuracy. The top model of larval mosquito presence was projected to the year 2050 under various combinations of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. Under current climatic conditions, larval mosquitoes were not predicted in areas of high elevation in Ecuador, such as the Andes mountain range, as well as the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. However, all models projected to scenarios of future climate change demonstrated potential shifts in mosquito distribution, wherein range contractions were seen throughout most of eastern Ecuador, and areas of transitional elevation became suitable for mosquito presence. Encroachment of Ae. aegypti into mountainous terrain was estimated to affect up to 4,215 km2 under the most extreme scenario of climate change, an area which would put over 12,000 people currently living in transitional areas at risk. This distributional shift into communities at higher elevations indicates an area of concern for public health agencies, as targeted interventions may be needed to protect vulnerable populations with limited prior exposure to mosquito-borne diseases. Ultimately, the results of this study serve as a tool for informing public health policy and mosquito abatement strategies in Ecuador.}, }
@article {pmid30995158, year = {2019}, author = {Sanz-Menéndez, L and Cruz-Castro, L}, title = {The credibility of scientific communication sources regarding climate change: A population-based survey experiment.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {28}, number = {5}, pages = {534-553}, doi = {10.1177/0963662519840946}, pmid = {30995158}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {This article analyses whether different institutional sources of scientific information have an impact on its credibility. Through a population-based survey experiment of a national representative sample of the Spanish public, we measure the credibility that citizens attribute to scientific information on the evolution of CO2 emissions disclosed by different institutional sources (business associations, government, non-government environmental organisations, international bodies and national research institutions). The findings show that an institutional credibility gap exists in science communication. We also investigate the factors accounting for the credibility of the different institutional sources by examining variables related to knowledge, interest, trust, reputation, deference, attitudes, values and personal characteristics. Exploratory regression analyses reveal that identical variables can produce different effects on the credibility of scientific information, depending on the institutional source to which it is attributed.}, }
@article {pmid30993361, year = {2019}, author = {Mücke, HG and Straff, W}, title = {[Increasing weather extremes are reasons to take health adaptation to climate change seriously].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {535-536}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02944-8}, pmid = {30993361}, issn = {1437-1588}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Germany ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid30993048, year = {2019}, author = {Tang, L and Wang, R and He, KS and Shi, C and Yang, T and Huang, Y and Zheng, P and Shi, F}, title = {Throwing light on dark diversity of vascular plants in China: predicting the distribution of dark and threatened species under global climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6731}, doi = {10.7717/peerj.6731}, pmid = {30993048}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Background: As global climate change accelerates, ecologists and conservationists are increasingly investigating changes in biodiversity and predicting species distribution based on species observed at sites, but rarely consider those plant species that could potentially inhabit but are absent from these areas (i.e., the dark diversity and its distribution). Here, we estimated the dark diversity of vascular plants in China and picked up threatened dark species from the result, and applied maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to project current and future distributions of those dark species in their potential regions (those regions that have these dark species).<br><br>Methods: We used the Beals probability index to estimate dark diversity in China based on available species distribution information and explored which environmental variables had significant impacts on dark diversity by incorporating bioclimatic data into the random forest (RF) model. We collected occurrence data of threatened dark species (Eucommia ulmoides, Liriodendron chinense, Phoebe bournei, Fagus longipetiolata, Amentotaxus argotaenia, and Cathaya argyrophylla) and related bioclimatic information that can be used to predict their distributions. In addition, we used MaxEnt modeling to project their distributions in suitable areas under future (2050 and 2070) climate change scenarios.<br><br>Results: We found that every study region's dark diversity was lower than its observed species richness. In these areas, their numbers of dark species are ranging from 0 to 215, with a generally increasing trend from western regions to the east. RF results showed that temperature variables had a more significant effect on dark diversity than those associated with precipitation. The results of MaxEnt modeling showed that most threatened dark species were climatically suitable in their potential regions from current to 2070.<br><br>Discussions: The results of this study provide the first ever dark diversity patterns concentrated in China, even though it was estimated at the provincial scale. A combination of dark diversity and MaxEnt modeling is an effective way to shed light on the species that make up the dark diversity, such as projecting the distribution of specific dark species under global climate change. Besides, the combination of dark diversity and species distribution models (SDMs) may also be of value for ex situ conservation, ecological restoration, and species invasion prevention in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30992446, year = {2019}, author = {Fletcher, S and Lickley, M and Strzepek, K}, title = {Learning about climate change uncertainty enables flexible water infrastructure planning.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1782}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09677-x}, pmid = {30992446}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Water resources planning requires decision-making about infrastructure development under uncertainty in future regional climate conditions. However, uncertainty in climate change projections will evolve over the 100-year lifetime of a dam as new climate observations become available. Flexible strategies in which infrastructure is proactively designed to be changed in the future have the potential to meet water supply needs without expensive over-building. Evaluating tradeoffs between flexible and traditional static planning approaches requires extension of current paradigms for planning under climate change uncertainty which do not assess opportunities to reduce uncertainty in the future. We develop a new planning framework that assesses the potential to learn about regional climate change over time and therefore evaluates the appropriateness of flexible approaches today. We demonstrate it on a reservoir planning problem in Mombasa, Kenya. This approach identifies opportunities to reliably use incremental approaches, enabling adaptation investments to reach more vulnerable communities with fewer resources.}, }
@article {pmid30992396, year = {2019}, author = {Kwok, R}, title = {Science and Culture: Can climate change games boost public understanding?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {16}, pages = {7602-7604}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1903508116}, pmid = {30992396}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid30991313, year = {2019}, author = {Whitehead, PG and Jin, L and Bussi, G and Voepel, HE and Darby, SE and Vasilopoulos, G and Manley, R and Rodda, H and Hutton, C and Hackney, C and Tri, VPD and Hung, NN}, title = {Water quality modelling of the Mekong River basin: Climate change and socioeconomics drive flow and nutrient flux changes to the Mekong Delta.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {673}, number = {}, pages = {218-229}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.315}, pmid = {30991313}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Mekong delta is recognised as one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas, being subject to a range of environmental pressures including sea level rise, increasing population, and changes in flows and nutrients from its upland catchment. With changing climate and socioeconomics there is a need to assess how the Mekong catchment will be affected in terms of the delivery of water and nutrients into the delta system. Here we apply the Integrated Catchment model (INCA) to the whole Mekong River Basin to simulate flow and water quality, including nitrate, ammonia, total phosphorus and soluble reactive phosphorus. The impacts of climate change on all these variables have been assessed across 24 river reaches ranging from the Himalayas down to the delta in Vietnam. We used the UK Met Office PRECIS regionally coupled climate model to downscale precipitation and temperature to the Mekong catchment. This was accomplished using the Global Circulation Model GFDL-CM to provide the boundary conditions under two carbon control strategies, namely representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and a RCP 8.5 scenario. The RCP 4.5 scenario represents the carbon strategy required to meet the Paris Accord, which aims to limit peak global temperatures to below a 2 °C rise whilst seeking to pursue options that limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The RCP 8.5 scenario is associated with a larger 3-4 °C rise. In addition, we also constructed a range of socio-economic scenarios to investigate the potential impacts of changing population, atmospheric pollution, economic growth and land use change up to the 2050s. Results of INCA simulations indicate increases in mean flows of up to 24%, with flood flows in the monsoon period increasing by up to 27%, but with increasing periods of drought up to 2050. A shift in the timing of the monsoon is also simulated, with a 4 week advance in the onset of monsoon flows on average. Decreases in nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations occur primarily due to flow dilution, but fluxes of these nutrients also increase by 5%, which reflects the changing flow, land use change and population changes.}, }
@article {pmid30990800, year = {2019}, author = {Myhr, A and Røyne, F and Brandtsegg, AS and Bjerkseter, C and Throne-Holst, H and Borch, A and Wentzel, A and Røyne, A}, title = {Towards a low CO2 emission building material employing bacterial metabolism (2/2): Prospects for global warming potential reduction in the concrete industry.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0208643}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0208643}, pmid = {30990800}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The production of concrete is one of the most significant contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions. This work focuses on bio-cementation-based products and their potential to reduce global warming potential (GWP). In particular, we address a proposed bio-cementation method employing bacterial metabolism in a two-step process of limestone dissolution and recrystallisation (BioZEment). A scenario-based techno-economic analysis (TEA) is combined with a life cycle assessment (LCA), a market model and a literature review of consumers' willingness to pay, to compute the expected reduction of global GWP. Based on the LCA, the GWP of 1 ton of BioZEment is found to be 70-83% lower than conventional concrete. In the TEA, three scenarios are investigated: brick, precast and onsite production. The results indicate that brick production may be the easiest way to implement the products, but that due to high cost, the impact on global GWP will be marginal. For precast production the expected 10% higher material cost of BioZEment only produces a marginal increase in total cost. Thus, precast production has the potential to reduce global GWP from concrete production by 0-20%. Significant technological hurdles remain before BioZEment-based products can be used in onsite construction scenarios, but in this scenario, the potential GWP reduction ranges from 1 to 26%. While the potential to reduce global GWP is substantial, significant efforts need to be made both in regard to public acceptance and production methods for this potential to be unlocked.}, }
@article {pmid30989322, year = {2019}, author = {Mitter, H and Larcher, M and Schönhart, M and Stöttinger, M and Schmid, E}, title = {Exploring Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions and Adaptation Intentions: Empirical Evidence from Austria.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {63}, number = {6}, pages = {804-821}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-019-01158-7}, pmid = {30989322}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {The lack of timely adaptation in agriculture may hamper prosperous farm developments by neglecting risks and opportunities emerging from climate change. Understanding farmers' perceptual and socio-cognitive processes is key in order to encourage on-farm adaptation. We aim at investigating how farmers' individual cognition on climate change and adaptation as well as socio-environmental context factors affect agricultural adaptation intention and avoidance. We build on the Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC) and apply a qualitative interview approach in two Austrian farming regions. Twenty semi-structured interviews have been conducted with 29 farmers. Based on the results of the qualitative content analysis, we have identified four groups of farmers, which differ in the formation process of adaptation intention and avoidance: (i) climate change adaptors, (ii) integrative adaptors, (iii) cost-benefit calculators, and (iv) climate change fatalists. Farmers who are part of groups (i)-(iii) form adaptation intentions, whereas climate change fatalists do not intend to adapt. According to our analysis, adaptation intentions are only formed if farmers are aware of effective adaptation measures, accept personal responsibility for their farms, and evaluate adaptation costs positively (i.e. adaptation appraisal). Farmers' climate change appraisal as well as farm and regional characteristics are also perceived relevant for farmers' adaptation decisions but seem to be less important than adaptation appraisal. Therefore, we conclude that engagement strategies and outreach efforts need not only address risks and opportunities, but should also strengthen farmers' self-responsibility and offer adaptation measures tailored to the regional characteristics and the farmers' needs.}, }
@article {pmid30989260, year = {2019}, author = {Baldermann, C and Lorenz, S}, title = {[UV radiation in Germany: influences of ozone depletion and climate change and measures to protect the population].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {639-645}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02934-w}, pmid = {30989260}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {Ultraviolet radiation (UV radiation) can lead to numerous skin and eye diseases, both immediately and later in life. The most serious consequence is skin cancer. The risk of skin cancer increases, among other things, with increasing UV irradiance and/or with increasing outdoor exposure times. Due to the fact that UV radiation is carcinogenic, protection of the population against harmful UV exposure is an important radiation protection and health objective.In Germany, ozone depletion and climate change can also influence the UV irradiance and outdoor exposure times to such an extent that the UV exposure of the population and thus the skin cancer risk can increase. This is why protection against harmful UV exposure is even more important. Since ozone depletion and climate change can further increase the UV exposure of humans, protection against high UV exposure is even more important. A country's adaptation strategies to the health consequences of ozone depletion and climate change should therefore also include strategies to reduce UV exposure.In this review, the health effects of UV radiation and the risk factors for UV-related skin cancer are first presented. The measurement of UV irradiance and exposure in Germany is explained. The effects of ozone depletion and climate change on UV exposure are then described and measures to protect the population are presented.}, }
@article {pmid30988183, year = {2019}, author = {Randell, H and Gray, C}, title = {Climate change and educational attainment in the global tropics.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {18}, pages = {8840-8845}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1817480116}, pmid = {30988183}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate change may negatively impact education among children via exposure to extreme temperature and precipitation conditions. We link census data from 29 countries across the global tropics to high-resolution gridded climate data to understand how climatic conditions experienced in utero and during early childhood affect educational attainment at ages 12 to 16. We show that exposure to higher-than-average temperatures during the prenatal and early-life period is associated with fewer years of schooling in Southeast Asia. In this region, a child who experiences temperatures 2 SDs above average is predicted to attain 1.5 fewer years of schooling than one who experiences average temperatures. In addition, early-life rainfall is positively correlated with attainment in West and Central Africa as well as Southeast Asia, and negatively correlated with attainment in Central America and the Caribbean. While we expected that children from the most educated households would be buffered from these effects, we discover that they tend to experience the greatest educational penalties when exposed to hotter early-life conditions and, in some regions, to drier conditions. For example, among the most educated households in West and Central Africa, predicted schooling is 1.8 years lower for children who experience early-life rainfall 2 SDs below average versus 2 SDs above average, while the difference is just 0.8 years for children from the least educated households. These results suggest that development and educational gains in the tropics could be undermined by climate change, even for better-off households.}, }
@article {pmid30986089, year = {2019}, author = {Sellers, S and Ebi, KL and Hess, J}, title = {Climate Change, Human Health, and Social Stability: Addressing Interlinkages.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {127}, number = {4}, pages = {45002}, doi = {10.1289/EHP4534}, pmid = {30986089}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Abundant historical evidence demonstrates how environmental changes can affect social stability and, in turn, human health. A rapidly growing body of literature, largely from political science and economics, is examining the potential for and consequences associated with social instability related to current climate change. However, comparatively little of this research incorporates the effects on human health or the role of health systems in influencing the magnitude and types of instability that could occur.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The objective of this commentary is to articulate a conceptual framework incorporating health outcomes and health systems into theorized and observed linkages between climate change and social instability, illustrating in particular the health effects of natural resource shortages, infectious disease outbreaks, and migration.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Although increasing evidence exists that climate change, health, and social instability are related, key questions remain about the pathways linking these factors, as well as the magnitude, causality, and directionality of relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Models seeking to explain and predict climate-related social unrest should incorporate the many linkages between climate change, human health, and social instability. Members of the environmental health research community should work closely with those in the political science and economics communities to help deepen understandings of climate-related stressors and shocks that affect instability and worsen health outcomes. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4534.}, }
@article {pmid30984444, year = {2019}, author = {Kupika, OL and Gandiwa, E and Nhamo, G and Kativu, S}, title = {Local Ecological Knowledge on Climate Change and Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Strategies Promote Resilience in the Middle Zambezi Biosphere Reserve, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Scientifica}, volume = {2019}, number = {}, pages = {3069254}, doi = {10.1155/2019/3069254}, pmid = {30984444}, issn = {2090-908X}, abstract = {Understanding local community perceptions on impacts, causes, and responses to climate change is vital for promotion of community resilience towards climate change. This study explored local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by local communities on climate change trends and impacts in the Middle Zambezi Biosphere Reserve (MZBR), Zimbabwe. The objectives of the study were to (i) investigate local community perceptions on trends and causes of climate change, (ii) identify biophysical impacts of climate change at the local level, and (iii) explore the ecosystem-based adaptation strategies towards climate change. The study used a mixed methods approach where a household questionnaire survey (n=320), key informant interviews (n=12), and focus group discussions (n=8) were used to collect data between April 2015 and October 2016. Results from the study show that local communities have observed decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures as key indicators of climate change. Local communities observed water scarcity, changes in vegetation phenology, livestock and wildlife mortalities, and food shortages due to drought as the major impacts on their livelihoods. LEK can contribute to adaptive management strategies that enhance resilience of socioecological systems (SES) in the face of climate change by providing information on the status and use of biophysical components of the environment and by highlighting potential local adaptation strategies that can sustain key livelihood practices.}, }
@article {pmid30984216, year = {2019}, author = {De Boeck, HJ and Hiltbrunner, E and Jentsch, A and Vandvik, V}, title = {Editorial: Responses to Climate Change in the Cold Biomes.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {347}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00347}, pmid = {30984216}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid30983540, year = {2019}, author = {Omazic, A and Berggren, C and Thierfelder, T and Koch, A and Evengard, B}, title = {Discrepancies in data reporting of zoonotic infectious diseases across the Nordic countries - a call for action in the era of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {78}, number = {1}, pages = {1601991}, doi = {10.1080/22423982.2019.1601991}, pmid = {30983540}, issn = {2242-3982}, abstract = {Emerging infections have in recent years caused enormous health problems. About 70% of these infections are zoonotic e.g. arise from natural foci in the environment. As climate change impacts ecosystems there is an ongoing transition of infectious diseases in humans. With the fastest changes of the climate occurring in the Arctic, this area is important to monitor for infections with potentials to be climate sensitive. To meet the increasing demand for evidence-based policies regarding climate-sensitive infectious diseases, epidemiological studies are vital. A review of registered data for nine potentially climate-sensitive infections, collected from health authorities in Denmark/Greenland, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, found that performing such studies across countries is constrained by incompatible reporting systems and differences in regulations. To address this, international standardisation is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid30983064, year = {2019}, author = {Krebs, CJ and Boonstra, R and Gilbert, BS and Kenney, AJ and Boutin, S}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on the Small Mammal Community of the Yukon Boreal Forest.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12397}, pmid = {30983064}, issn = {1749-4877}, abstract = {Long-term monitoring is critical to determine stability and sustainability of wildlife populations, and if change has occurred, why. We have followed population density changes in the small mammal community in the boreal forest of the southern Yukon for 46 years with density estimates by live trapping on 3-5 unmanipulated grids in spring and autumn. This community consists of 10 species and was responsible for 9% of the energy flow in the herbivore component of this ecosystem from 1986-96, but this increased to 38% from 2003-2014. Small mammals, although small in size, are large in the transfer of energy from plants to predators and decomposers. Four species form the bulk of the biomass. There was shift in the dominant species from the 1970s to the 2000s, with Myodes rutilus increasing in relative abundance by 22% and Peromyscus maniculatus decreasing by 22%. From 2007 to 2018 Myodes comprised 63% of the catch, Peromyscus 20%, and Microtus species 17%. Possible causes of these changes involve climate change which is increasing primary production in this boreal forest and an associated increase in the abundance of three rodent predators, marten (Martes americana), ermine (Mustela erminea), and coyotes (Canis latrans). Following and understanding these and potential future changes will require long-term monitoring studies on a large scale to measure metapopulation dynamics. The small mammal community in northern Canada is being affected by climate change and cannot remain stable. Changes will be critically dependent on food-web interactions that are species specific. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid30981142, year = {2019}, author = {Withey, P and Sullivan, D and Lantz, V}, title = {Willingness to pay for protection from storm surge damages under climate change in Halifax Regional Municipality.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {241}, number = {}, pages = {44-52}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.04.007}, pmid = {30981142}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change poses risks to coastal cities due to sea-level rise and changes in storm surge. Using the contingent valuation method and payment card format, this paper seeks to estimate residents of Halifax Regional Municipality's willingness to pay (WTP) for protection from flooding impacts from storm surge. The contribution of this study is the application of this method in a previously unstudied region, to understand individuals' perception of risk and WTP to avoid damage, in order to inform policy aimed at protecting against damage due to sea-level rise and storm surge. WTP is estimated without and with the expectation of future climate change, and also for public vs. private goods. Data is analyzed and compared using OLS, Heckman two-step and Tobit Interval regression models. Results suggest that on average, WTP is roughly $12 per month per household over a ten-year period without the expectation of climate change, and roughly $13 per month per household assuming climate change will have negative impacts in the region. Individuals are most often willing to pay to protect against damages to public infrastructure, as well as power outages. Income and education do not play a major role in individuals WTP. Vulnerability to flooding and level of concern related to risky events have a statistically significant impact on WTP in all models, and gender and age have an impact on WTP in some models.}, }
@article {pmid30980766, year = {2019}, author = {Lin, MJ and Torbeck, RL and Dubin, DP and Lin, CE and Khorasani, H}, title = {Climate change and skin cancer.}, journal = {Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology : JEADV}, volume = {33}, number = {9}, pages = {e324-e325}, doi = {10.1111/jdv.15622}, pmid = {30980766}, issn = {1468-3083}, }
@article {pmid30980113, year = {2019}, author = {Schach, H}, title = {[Organised neighbourhood support during extreme weather events in rural areas : Using the &quot;volunteers on-site system&quot; to strategically adapt to crisis situations caused by climate change].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {629-638}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02936-8}, pmid = {30980113}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. The impacts are globally and regionally visible through more and more frequent extreme weather events, be they devastating storms, longer periods of cold and heat or prolonged periods of drought alternating with heavy rain and flooding. In addition to the urgent need for climate change mitigation, therefore, the question has been raised for some time as to which measures cities and municipalities, rural districts and regions can use to prepare themselves against the consequences of climate change.The region of Northern Hesse developed strategies and measures for climate adaptation at an early stage as part of the KLIMZUG (shaping climate change for the future in regions) federal support programme. The question remains open as to what will happen in rural regions - and especially in remote places - when there is no more civil protection assistance available in the event of a disaster either because they are needed elsewhere, roads are impassable or electricity, telephone and Internet connections are no longer functioning. For this case, a project consortium led by the Regionalmanagement Nordhessen GmbH has now developed the &quot;volunteers on-site system&quot; (Freiwilligen-vor-Ort-System [FvOS]) as an organised form of neighbourhood support.This model project, which is unique in Germany, is intended to show how care for people in need of help and care can be ensured in rural areas in the event of a disaster.The project has sensitised citizens and task forces to this task and initiated a process that is intended to lead to more self-responsibility, but also safety in the event of a disaster situation. FvOS is intended to signal the need for climate change mitigation throughout Germany.}, }
@article {pmid30978188, year = {2019}, author = {Lee, J and de Carvalho, M}, title = {Technological improvements or climate change? Bayesian modeling of time-varying conformance to Benford's Law.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0213300}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0213300}, pmid = {30978188}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {We develop a Bayesian time-varying model that tracks periods at which conformance to Benford's Law is lower. Our methods are motivated by recent attempts to assess how the quality and homogeneity of large datasets may change over time by using the First-Digit Rule. We resort to a smooth multinomial logistic model which captures the dynamics governing the proportion of first digits, and apply the proposed model to global tropical cyclone tracks over the past two centuries. Our findings indicate that cumulative technological improvements may have only had a moderate influence on the homogeneity of the dataset, and hint that recent heterogeneity could be due to other drivers.}, }
@article {pmid30977006, year = {2019}, author = {Gorh, D and Baruah, KK}, title = {Estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emission from wetland rice paddies with reference to global warming potential.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {16}, pages = {16331-16344}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-05026-z}, pmid = {30977006}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Gases/*analysis ; India ; Methane/*analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; Oryza/*physiology ; Plant Stomata/physiology ; Plant Transpiration ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are two important greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute largely to global warming and climate change. The impact of physiological characteristics of rice genotypes on global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) is not well documented. A 2-year field experiment was conducted with eight summer rice varieties: Dinanath, Joymoti, Kanaklata, Swarnabh, IR 64, Tapaswami (modern varieties), Number 9, and Jagilee Boro (indigenous varieties) for two successive seasons (December-June, 2015-2016 and December-June, 2016-2017) to estimate their GWP and GHGI. The GWP of the rice varieties ranged from 841.52 to 1288.67 kg CO2-equiv. ha-1 and GHGI from 0.184 to 0.854 kg CO2-equiv. kg-1 grain yield. Significant differences (p < 0.05) in seasonal GHG emission, GWP, GHGI, CEE (carbon equivalent emission), photosynthetic efficiency, stomatal conductance, transpiration rate, and grain productivity among the rice varieties were observed during the investigation. A good correlation of GWP (p < 0.01) was recorded with rate of stomatal conductance and transpiration rate of the varieties. The present study reveals a strong relationship between plant biomass (p < 0.01) with GWP and CEE of the rice varieties. The variety IR 64 and Number 9 are identified as the most suitable variety with lowest GWP (909.85 and 876.68 kg CO2-equiv. ha-1 respectively) and GHGI (0.192 and 0.227 kg CO2-equiv. kg-1 grain yield respectively) accompanied by higher grain productivity (4839 and 3867 kg ha-1 respectively). Observations from the study suggest that agricultural productivity and GHG mitigation can be simultaneously achieved by proper selection of rice genotypes.}, }
@article {pmid30976790, year = {2019}, author = {Semenza, JC and Ebi, KL}, title = {Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {26}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jtm/taz026}, pmid = {30976790}, issn = {1708-8305}, abstract = {Background: Climate change is not only increasing ambient temperature but also accelerating the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy precipitation and droughts, and causing sea level rise, which can lead to population displacement. Climate change-related reductions in land productivity and habitability and in food and water security can also interact with demographic, economic and social factors to increase migration. In addition to migration, climate change has also implications for travel and the risk of disease. This article discusses the impact of climate change on migration and travel with implications for public health practice.<br><br>Methods: Literature review.<br><br>Results: Migrants may be at increased risk of communicable and non-communicable diseases, due to factors in their country of origin and their country of destination or conditions that they experience during migration. Although migration has not been a significant driver of communicable disease outbreaks to date, public health authorities need to ensure that effective screening and vaccination programmes for priority communicable diseases are in place.Population growth coupled with socio-economic development is increasing travel and tourism, and advances in technology have increased global connectivity and reduced the time required to cover long distances. At the same time, as a result of climate change, many temperate regions, including high-income countries, are now suitable for vector-borne disease transmission. This is providing opportunities for importation of vectors and pathogens from endemic areas that can lead to cases or outbreaks of communicable diseases with which health professionals may be unfamiliar.<br><br>Conclusion: Health systems need to be prepared for the potential population health consequences of migration, travel and tourism and the impact of climate change on these. Integrated surveillance, early detection of cases and other public health interventions are critical to protect population health and prevent and control communicabledisease outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid30973922, year = {2019}, author = {Miranda, LS and Imperatriz-Fonseca, VL and Giannini, TC}, title = {Climate change impact on ecosystem functions provided by birds in southeastern Amazonia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0215229}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0215229}, pmid = {30973922}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Although the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are increasing worldwide, few studies have attempted to forecast these impacts on Amazon Tropical Forest. In this study, we estimated the impact of climate change on Amazonian avian assemblages considering range shifts, species loss, vulnerability of ecosystem functioning, future effectiveness of current protected areas and potential climatically stable areas for conservation actions. Species distribution modelling based on two algorithms and three different scenarios of climate change was used to forecast 501 avian species, organized on main ecosystem functions (frugivores, insectivores and nectarivores) for years 2050 and 2070. Considering the entire study area, we estimated that between 4 and 19% of the species will find no suitable habitat. Inside the currently established protected areas, species loss could be over 70%. Our results suggest that frugivores are the most sensitive guild, which could bring consequences on seed dispersal functions and on natural regeneration. Moreover, we identified the western and northern parts of the study area as climatically stable. Climate change will potentially affect avian assemblages in southeastern Amazonia with detrimental consequences to their ecosystem functions. Information provided here is essential to conservation practitioners and decision makers to help on planning their actions.}, }
@article {pmid30972894, year = {2019}, author = {McNicol, L}, title = {It is time to protect our children from climate change with a national school-based heatwave policy.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {290-291}, doi = {10.1002/hpja.170}, pmid = {30972894}, issn = {1036-1073}, }
@article {pmid30971717, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, R and Liang, T and Guo, J and Xie, H and Feng, Q and Aimaiti, Y}, title = {Publisher Correction: Grassland dynamics in response to climate change and human activities in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2014.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {6181}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-41390-z}, pmid = {30971717}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.}, }
@article {pmid30970482, year = {2019}, author = {Shen, X and Liu, B and Xue, Z and Jiang, M and Lu, X and Zhang, Q}, title = {Spatiotemporal variation in vegetation spring phenology and its response to climate change in freshwater marshes of Northeast China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {666}, number = {}, pages = {1169-1177}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.265}, pmid = {30970482}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Plant Development ; Seasons ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Understanding wetland vegetation phenology and its response to climate change is important to predict the changes of wetland vegetation in wetland regions. Using the NDVI and climate data, this work studied the spatiotemporal change of start date of vegetation growing season (SOS) and explored the possible effects of climate change on the SOS over freshwater marshes of Northeast China. The results showed that the SOS significantly advanced by 0.52 day per year throughout the freshwater marshes of Northeast China during 2001 to 2016. The significant advancing of SOS was mainly concentrated in freshwater marshes of the Khingan Mountains (the Greater Khingan Mountains and the Lesser Khingan Mountains) and central arid or semi-arid regions (Songnen plain and Liaohe plain) in Northeast China. By contrast, there were weak delay trends of SOS in freshwater marshes of Eastern Inner Mongolia region, and Sanjiang plain. We found that precipitation was a dominant factor determining the SOS in arid or semi-arid regions (Songnen plain and Liaohe plain), while temperature played a bigger role in determining the SOS in Sanjiang plain and three cold mountains of the Northeast China. During the study period, increasing precipitation in the winter and spring contributed to advancing SOS in Songnen plain and Liaohe plain; the decrease of temperature from December to April explain the delaying SOS in freshwater marshes of Sanjiang Plain; the weak warming of temperature between November and May account for the advancing SOS of freshwater marshes in three cold mountains. In freshwater marshes of cold and the most arid region of Northeast China (Eastern Inner Mongolia), the SOS was influenced by both precipitation and temperature. Decreasing precipitation between January and April, as well as temperature decreases in March and April explain the delay of SOS in freshwater marshes of Eastern Inner Mongolia region.}, }
@article {pmid30968450, year = {2019}, author = {Schachtel, A and Boos, MD}, title = {Pediatric dermatology and climate change: An argument for the pediatric subspecialist as public health advocate.}, journal = {Pediatric dermatology}, volume = {36}, number = {4}, pages = {564-566}, doi = {10.1111/pde.13819}, pmid = {30968450}, issn = {1525-1470}, abstract = {The October 2018 report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts significant threats to human health secondary to anthropogenic global warming; children have been and will continue to be disproportionately affected by these weather-related changes. Multiple physician groups have acknowledged climate change as a public health issue, calling upon providers to educate their communities about this looming health crisis while also reducing their individual carbon footprints. A significant body of literature has also documented the adverse dermatologic consequences of a warmer planet, highlighting the importance of pediatric dermatologists in addressing climate change. Here, we summarize the rationale for the pediatric dermatologist as public health advocate, providing specific actionable items through which our specialty can positively address the climate change crisis and in turn protect the health of our patients now and in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30966984, year = {2019}, author = {Taccoen, A and Piedallu, C and Seynave, I and Perez, V and Gégout-Petit, A and Nageleisen, LM and Bontemps, JD and Gégout, JC}, title = {Background mortality drivers of European tree species: climate change matters.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1900}, pages = {20190386}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2019.0386}, pmid = {30966984}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {Increases in tree mortality rates have been highlighted in different biomes over the past decades. However, disentangling the effects of climate change on the temporal increase in tree mortality from those of management and forest dynamics remains a challenge. Using a modelling approach taking tree and stand characteristics into account, we sought to evaluate the impact of climate change on background mortality for the most common European tree species. We focused on background mortality, which is the mortality observed in a stand in the absence of abrupt disturbances, to avoid confusion with mortality events unrelated to long-term changes in temperature and rainfall. We studied 372 974 trees including 7312 dead trees from forest inventory data surveyed across France between 2009 and 2015. Factors related to competition, stand characteristics, management intensity, and site conditions were the expected preponderant drivers of mortality. Taking these main drivers into account, we detected a climate change signal on 45% of the 43 studied species, explaining an average 6% of the total modelled mortality. For 18 out of the 19 species sensitive to climate change, we evidenced greater mortality with increasing temperature or decreasing rainfall. By quantifying the mortality excess linked to the current climate change for European temperate forest tree species, we provide new insights into forest vulnerability that will prove useful for adapting forest management to future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30966963, year = {2019}, author = {Kelly, M}, title = {Adaptation to climate change through genetic accommodation and assimilation of plastic phenotypes.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1768}, pages = {20180176}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0176}, pmid = {30966963}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Theory suggests that evolutionary changes in phenotypic plasticity could either hinder or facilitate evolutionary rescue in a changing climate. Nevertheless, the actual role of evolving plasticity in the responses of natural populations to climate change remains unresolved. Direct observations of evolutionary change in nature are rare, making it difficult to assess the relative contributions of changes in trait means versus changes in plasticity to climate change responses. To address this gap, this review explores several proxies that can be used to understand evolving plasticity in the context of climate change, including space for time substitutions, experimental evolution and tests for genomic divergence at environmentally responsive loci. Comparisons among populations indicate a prominent role for divergence in environmentally responsive traits in local adaptation to climatic gradients. Moreover, genomic comparisons among such populations have identified pervasive divergence in the regulatory regions of environmentally responsive loci. Taken together, these lines of evidence suggest that divergence in plasticity plays a prominent role in adaptation to climatic gradients over space, indicating that evolving plasticity is also likely to play a key role in adaptive responses to climate change through time. This suggests that genetic variation in plastic responses to the environment (G × E) might be an important predictor of species' vulnerabilities to climate-driven decline or extinction. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.}, }
@article {pmid30966960, year = {2019}, author = {Fuxjäger, L and Wanzenböck, S and Ringler, E and Wegner, KM and Ahnelt, H and Shama, LNS}, title = {Within-generation and transgenerational plasticity of mate choice in oceanic stickleback under climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1768}, pages = {20180183}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0183}, pmid = {30966960}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Plasticity, both within and across generations, can shape sexual traits involved in mate choice and reproductive success, and thus direct measures of fitness. Especially, transgenerational plasticity (TGP), where parental environment influences offspring plasticity in future environments, could compensate for otherwise negative effects of environmental change on offspring sexual traits. We conducted a mate choice experiment using stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) with different thermal histories (ambient 17°C or elevated 21°C) within and across generations under simulated ocean warming using outdoor mesocosms. Parentage analysis of egg clutches revealed that maternal developmental temperature and reproductive (mesocosm) environment affected egg size, with females that developed at 17°C laying smaller eggs in 21°C mesocosms, likely owing to metabolic costs at elevated temperature. Paternal developmental temperature interacted with the reproductive environment to influence mating success, particularly under simulated ocean warming, with males that developed at 21°C showing lower overall mating success compared with 17°C males, but higher mating success in 21°C mesocosms. Furthermore, mating success of males was influenced by the interaction between F1 developmental temperature and F0 parent acclimation temperature, demonstrating the potential role of both TGP and within-generation plasticity in shaping traits involved in sexual selection and mate choice, potentially facilitating rapid responses to environmental change. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.}, }
@article {pmid30966957, year = {2019}, author = {Bonamour, S and Chevin, LM and Charmantier, A and Teplitsky, C}, title = {Phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change: the importance of cue variation.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1768}, pages = {20180178}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0178}, pmid = {30966957}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Phenotypic plasticity is a major mechanism of response to global change. However, current plastic responses will only remain adaptive under future conditions if informative environmental cues are still available. We briefly summarize current knowledge of the evolutionary origin and mechanistic underpinnings of environmental cues for phenotypic plasticity, before highlighting the potentially complex effects of global change on cue availability and reliability. We then illustrate some of these aspects with a case study, comparing plasticity of blue tit breeding phenology in two contrasted habitats: evergreen and deciduous forests. Using long-term datasets, we investigate the climatic factors linked to the breeding phenology of the birds and their main food source. Blue tits occupying different habitats differ extensively in the cues affecting laying date plasticity, as well as in the reliability of these cues as predictors of the putative driver of selective pressure, the date of caterpillar peak. The temporal trend for earlier laying date, detected only in the evergreen populations, is explained by increased temperature during their cue windows. Our results highlight the importance of integrating ecological mechanisms shaping variation in plasticity if we are to understand how global change will affect plasticity and its consequences for population biology. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.}, }
@article {pmid30965264, year = {2019}, author = {Pires, JCM}, title = {Negative emissions technologies: A complementary solution for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {672}, number = {}, pages = {502-514}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.004}, pmid = {30965264}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas (GHG) and its atmospheric concentration is currently 50% higher than pre-industrial levels. The continuous GHGs emissions may lead to severe and irreversible consequences in the climate system. The reduction of GHG emissions may be not enough to mitigate climate change. Consequently, besides carbon capture from large emission sources, atmospheric CO2 capture may be also required. To meet the target defined for climate change mitigation, the removal of 10 Gt·yr-1 of CO2 globally by mid-century and 20 Gt·yr-1 of CO2 globally by the end of century. The technologies applied with this aim are known as negative emission technologies (NETs), as they lead to achieve a negative balance of carbon in atmosphere. This paper aims to present the recent research works regarding NETs, focusing the research findings achieved by academic groups and projects. Besides several advantages, NETs present high operational cost and its scale-up should be tested to know the real effect on climate change mitigation. With current knowledge, no single process should be seen as a solution. Research efforts should be performed to evaluate and reduce NETs costs and environmental impact.}, }
@article {pmid30964399, year = {2019}, author = {Jones, R}, title = {Climate change and Indigenous Health Promotion.}, journal = {Global health promotion}, volume = {26}, number = {3_suppl}, pages = {73-81}, doi = {10.1177/1757975919829713}, pmid = {30964399}, issn = {1757-9767}, abstract = {Climate change poses a serious threat to the health and well-being of Indigenous peoples around the world. Despite living in diverse contexts, Indigenous peoples face a number of common challenges. Disproportionate threats from climate change exist due to a range of factors including unique relationships with the natural environment, socioeconomic deprivation, a greater existing burden of disease, poorer access to and quality of health care, and political marginalization. Responses to climate change at global, national, and local levels also threaten Indigenous people's rights. While climate action presents many opportunities to improve health and reduce inequities, there is also significant potential for climate mitigation and adaptation policies to inflict harm on Indigenous peoples. An important aspect of this is the impact on traditional lands, which are acknowledged as a fundamental determinant of Indigenous health and well-being. This article seeks to elucidate the relationships between climate change and Indigenous health and to inform health promotion solutions to achieve climate justice for Indigenous peoples. The underpinning analysis is founded on a Kaupapa Māori positioning, which seeks transformative change and involves critiquing Western knowledges and structures that undermine Indigenous rights. A central theme is that anthropogenic climate change is intimately connected to the ideologies, systems and practices of colonialism, and that the impacts on Indigenous peoples can be conceptualized as an intensification of the process of colonization. It is not possible to understand and address climate-related health impacts for Indigenous peoples without examining this broader context of colonial oppression, marginalization and dispossession. The challenge for health promotion is to engage in a process of decolonization. This involves deconstructing its own systems and practices to avoid reinforcing colonialism and perpetuating inequities. It also requires health promotion practitioners to support Indigenous self-determination and recognize Indigenous knowledges as a critical foundation for climate change and health solutions.}, }
@article {pmid30963929, year = {2019}, author = {Qiu, Z and Coleman, MA and Provost, E and Campbell, AH and Kelaher, BP and Dalton, SJ and Thomas, T and Steinberg, PD and Marzinelli, EM}, title = {Future climate change is predicted to affect the microbiome and condition of habitat-forming kelp.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1896}, pages = {20181887}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2018.1887}, pmid = {30963929}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {Climate change is driving global declines of marine habitat-forming species through physiological effects and through changes to ecological interactions, with projected trajectories for ocean warming and acidification likely to exacerbate such impacts in coming decades. Interactions between habitat-formers and their microbiomes are fundamental for host functioning and resilience, but how such relationships will change in future conditions is largely unknown. We investigated independent and interactive effects of warming and acidification on a large brown seaweed, the kelp Ecklonia radiata, and its associated microbiome in experimental mesocosms. Microbial communities were affected by warming and, during the first week, by acidification. During the second week, kelp developed disease-like symptoms previously observed in the field. The tissue of some kelp blistered, bleached and eventually degraded, particularly under the acidification treatments, affecting photosynthetic efficiency. Microbial communities differed between blistered and healthy kelp for all treatments, except for those under future conditions of warming and acidification, which after two weeks resembled assemblages associated with healthy hosts. This indicates that changes in the microbiome were not easily predictable as the severity of future climate scenarios increased. Future ocean conditions can change kelp microbiomes and may lead to host disease, with potentially cascading impacts on associated ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30962890, year = {2019}, author = {Zhu, RB and Wang, Q and Guan, WB and Mao, Y and Tian, B and Cheng, JM and El-Kassaby, YA}, title = {Conservation of genetic diversity hotspots of the high-valued relic yellowhorn (Xanthoceras sorbifolium) considering climate change predictions.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {3251-3263}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.4944}, pmid = {30962890}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Genetic structure and major climate factors may contribute to the distribution of genetic diversity of a highly valued oil tree species Xanthoceras sorbifolium (yellowhorn). Long-term over utilization along with climate change is affecting the viability of yellowhorn wild populations. To preserve the species known and unknown valuable gene pools, the identification of genetic diversity &quot;hotspots&quot; is a prerequisite for their consideration as in situ conservation high priority. Chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) diversity was high among 38 natural populations (Hd = 0.717, K = 4.616, Tajmas' D = -0.22) and characterized by high genetic divergence (FST = 0.765) and relatively low gene flow (Nm = 0.03), indicating populations isolation reflecting the species' habitat fragmentation and inbreeding depression. Six out of the studied 38 populations are defined as genetic diversity &quot;hotspots.&quot; The number and geographic direction of cpDNA mutation steps supported the species southwest to northeast migration history. Climatic factors such as extreme minimum temperature over 30 years indicated that the identified genetic &quot;hotspots&quot; are expected to experience 5°C temperature increase in next following 50 years. The results identified vulnerable genetic diversity &quot;hotspots&quot; and provided fundamental information for the species' future conservation and breeding activities under the anticipated climate change. More specifically, the role of breeding as a component of a gene resource management strategy aimed at fulfilling both utilization and conservation goals.}, }
@article {pmid30962375, year = {2019}, author = {Ballew, MT and Goldberg, MH and Rosenthal, SA and Gustafson, A and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Systems thinking as a pathway to global warming beliefs and attitudes through an ecological worldview.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {17}, pages = {8214-8219}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1819310116}, pmid = {30962375}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Prior research has found that systems thinking, the tendency to perceive phenomena as interconnected and dynamic, is associated with a general proenvironmental orientation. However, less is known about its relationship with public understanding of climate change and/or whether this relationship varies across people with different political views. Because climate change is a highly politicized issue, it is also important to understand the extent to which systems thinking can foster acceptance of climate science across political lines. Using an online sample of US adults (n = 1,058), we tested the degree to which systems thinking predicts global warming beliefs and attitudes (e.g., believing that global warming is happening, that it is human-caused, etc.), independent of an ecological worldview (i.e., the New Ecological Paradigm). We found that although systems thinking is positively related to global warming beliefs and attitudes, the relationships are almost fully explained by an ecological worldview. Indirect effects of systems thinking are consistently strong across political ideologies and party affiliations, although slightly stronger for conservatives and Republicans than for liberals and Democrats, respectively. We did not find evidence of the converse: Systems thinking does not seem to mediate the relationship between an ecological worldview and global warming beliefs and attitudes. Together, these findings suggest that systems thinking may support the adoption of global warming beliefs and attitudes indirectly by helping to develop an ecological ethic that people should take care of and not abuse the environment.}, }
@article {pmid30962202, year = {2019}, author = {Mercer, C}, title = {How health care contributes to climate change.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {191}, number = {14}, pages = {E403-E404}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-5722}, pmid = {30962202}, issn = {1488-2329}, }
@article {pmid30959295, year = {2019}, author = {Abd-Elaty, I and Sallam, GAH and Straface, S and Scozzari, A}, title = {Effects of climate change on the design of subsurface drainage systems in coastal aquifers in arid/semi-arid regions: Case study of the Nile delta.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {672}, number = {}, pages = {283-295}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.483}, pmid = {30959295}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The influence of climate change on the availability and quality of both surface- and ground-water resources is well recognized nowadays. In particular, the mitigation of saline water intrusion mechanisms in coastal aquifers is a recurrent environmental issue. In the case of the Nile delta, the presence of sea level rise and the perspective of other human-induced stressors, such as the next operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, are threats to be taken into account for guaranteeing resilient agricultural practices within the future possible scenarios. Subsurface drainage offers a practical solution to the problem of upward artesian water movement and the simultaneous downward flow of excess irrigation water, to mitigate the salinization in the root zone. Subsurface draining systems can contribute to mitigate the vulnerability to climate change and to the increased anthropic pressure insofar they are able to receive the incremented flow rate due to the foreseen scenarios of sea level rise, recharge and subsidence. This paper introduces a rational design of subsurface drainage systems in coastal aquifers, taking into account the increment of flow in the draining pipes due to future possible conditions of sea level rise, artificial recharge and subsidence within time horizons that are compatible with the expected lifespan of a buried drainage system. The approach proposed in this paper is characterized by the assessment of the incremental flow through the drains as a function of various possible scenarios at different time horizons. Our calculations show that the impact on the discharge into the existing subsurface drainage system under the new foreseen conditions is anything but negligible. Thus, future climate-related scenarios deeply impact the design of such hydraulic structures, and must be taken into account in the frame of the next water management strategies for safeguarding agricultural activities in the Nile delta and in similar coastal contexts.}, }
@article {pmid30958243, year = {2018}, author = {Meade, J and VanDerWal, J and Storlie, C and Williams, S and Gourret, A and Krockenberger, A and Welbergen, JA}, title = {Substantial reduction in thermo-suitable microhabitat for a rainforest marsupial under climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {20180189}, doi = {10.1098/rsbl.2018.0189}, pmid = {30958243}, issn = {1744-957X}, abstract = {Increases in mean temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change increase the frequency and severity of temperature extremes. Although extreme temperature events are likely to become increasingly important drivers of species' response to climate change, the impacts are poorly understood owing mainly to a lack of understanding of species' physiological responses to extreme temperatures. The physiological response of Pseudochirops archeri (green ringtail possum) to temperature extremes has been well studied, demonstrating that heterothermy is used to reduce evaporative water loss at temperatures greater than 30°C. Dehydration is likely to limit survival when animals are exposed to a critical thermal regime of ≥30°C, for ≥5 h, for ≥4 consecutive days. In this study, we use this physiological information to assess P. archeri's vulnerability to climate change. We identify areas of current thermo-suitable habitat (validated using sightings), then estimate future thermo-suitable habitat for P. archeri, under four emission scenarios. Our projections indicate that up to 86% of thermo-suitable habitat could be lost by 2085, a serious conservation concern for the species. We demonstrate the potential applicability of our approach for generating spatio-temporally explicit predictions of the vulnerability of species to extreme temperature events, providing a focus for efficient and targeted conservation and habitat restoration management.}, }
@article {pmid30956567, year = {2019}, author = {Holman, IP and Brown, C and Carter, TR and Harrison, PA and Rounsevell, M}, title = {Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {711-721}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-018-1328-4}, pmid = {30956567}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of climate change adaptation, and the ways in which representation of adaptation in models can be improved. The review shows that real-world adaptive responses can be differentiated along a number of dimensions including intent or purpose, timescale, spatial scale, beneficiaries and providers, type of action, and sector. However, models of climate change consequences for land use and water management currently provide poor coverage of these dimensions, instead modelling adaptation in an artificial and subjective manner. While different modelling approaches do capture distinct aspects of the adaptive process, they have done so in relative isolation, without producing improved unified representations. Furthermore, adaptation is often assumed to be objective, effective and consistent through time, with only a minority of models taking account of the human decisions underpinning the choice of adaptation measures (14%), the triggers that motivate actions (38%) or the time-lags and constraints that may limit their uptake and effectiveness (14%). No models included adaptation to take advantage of beneficial opportunities of climate change. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future model development that may enhance realism within models, while also advancing our understanding of the processes and effectiveness of adaptation to a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid30954727, year = {2019}, author = {Ashrafuzzaman, M and Furini, GL}, title = {Climate change and human health linkages in the context of globalization: An overview from global to southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {127}, number = {}, pages = {402-411}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.03.020}, pmid = {30954727}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {This article attempts to analyze the main impacts of climate change on public health starting with global and going through local by analyzing coastal communities in the area of influence of Sundarbans, located in southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. In dealing with paramount health problems caused by climate change, we discuss what are the major challenges faced by different actors. From the opinion of globalization and world system theory it will be argued that developing countries are facing major defiance in terms of mitigation and adaptation, including human health problems. Those living in developing world, as the case of Bangladesh, responsible for the lowest contributions to climate change, are already suffering the most. This paper is based on bibliographical and statistical review, and uses primary data collected from field and secondary from publications, books, scientific journals, international reports. In this paper we also focused that poor countries shall not be liable for the damages caused by carbon emissions already trapped into atmosphere, a historic problem caused by developed world, so we expect that multi-governance platforms should make mutual efforts to promote health in partnership with local institutions in order to solve the climatic crisis.}, }
@article {pmid30949718, year = {2019}, author = {Herrmann, A and de Jong, L and Kowalski, C and Sauerborn, R}, title = {[Health Co-benefits of climate change mitigation measures-how houeseholds and policy makers can benefit].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {556-564}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02929-7}, pmid = {30949718}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {In discussions on climate change and health, negative impacts of climate change usually dominate the discussion. However to motivate households and policy makers to climate action, one should also point out the health opportunities of climate change mitigation measures.We draw on the current literature to present the concept of health co-benefits of climate change mitigation measures (A). In the empirical part of the paper we first use a quantitative and qualitative text analysis to look at the link of climate change and health in EU legislation from 1990-2015 (B). We then describe results from qualitative in-depth interviews with 18 German households, in which we investigate how knowledge of health co-benefits influences households in implementing climate action. The interviews were part of a bigger European mixed-methods study.A: From the household perspective, we define direct health co-benefits, which can be influenced and experienced by an individual, and indirect health co-benefits, which are dependent on societal action. B: Health is mentioned in EU climate change legislation. However, EU legislation only touches upon health co-benefits in general and doesn't mention direct health co-benefits at all. C: Households consider health co-benefits in their lifestyle decisions. Yet, as there are many determinants of lifestyle, information on health co-benefits alone does not seem to be sufficient to trigger climate friendly and healthy behavior.First, synergies between health and climate change mitigation need to be recognized on a political level. Then, effective intersectoral policies need to be implemented to support households on multiple levels in implementing healthy and climate-friendly lifestyles.}, }
@article {pmid30947054, year = {2019}, author = {Naujokienė, V and Šarauskis, E and Bleizgys, R and Sasnauskienė, J}, title = {Soil biotreatment effectiveness for reducing global warming potential from main polluting tillage operations in life cycle assessment phase.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {671}, number = {}, pages = {805-817}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.338}, pmid = {30947054}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Environmental Pollutants ; Environmental Pollution/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Global Warming ; Ozone ; Soil ; }, abstract = {In order to reduce global warming potential (GWP) due to anthropogenic and natural factors in the cultivation of winter wheat and rapeseed, proved effectiveness of soil biotreatment with different composition of bio-solutions. It was reduced greenhouse gases (GHG) through life cycle impact categories from the main polluting agricultural operations on deeply lukewarm soaked soil. According to the impact diapason evaluated the main indicators such as human toxicity air (HTA), ecotoxicity water chronic (EWC), global warming potential, ecotoxicity water acute (EWA), ozone formation (OF), human toxicity water (HTW), ecotoxicity soil chronic (ESC), human toxicity soil (HTS), terrestrial eutrophication (TE), acidifica