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14 Oct 2019 at 01:35
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Bibliography on: Climate Change


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RJR: Recommended Bibliography 14 Oct 2019 at 01:35 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2019-10-12

Giejsztowt J, Classen AT, JR Deslippe (2019)

Climate change and invasion may synergistically affect native plant reproduction.

Ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Global change drivers can interact in synergistic ways, yet the interactive effect of global change drivers, such as climatic warming and species invasions, on plant pollination are poorly represented in experimental studies. We paired manipulative experiments to probe two mechanistic pathways through which plant invasion and warming may alter phenology and reproduction of native plant species. In the first, we tested how experimental warming (+1.7°C) modulated flowering phenology and how this affected flowering overlap between a native plant (Dracophyllum subulatum) and an invasive plant (Calluna vulgaris L.). In the second experiment we explored how variation in the ratio of native to invasive flowers, and the overall quantity of resources in a floral patch, affected the reproduction of the native species. We hypothesised that the flowering overlap of native and invasive plants would be altered by warming, given that invading plants typically exhibit greater phenological plasticity than native plants. Further, we hypothesised that pollination of native plant flowers would decrease in floral patches dominated by invasive plant flowers, but that this effect would depend on total floral density in the patch. As predicted, the invasive plant had a stronger phenological response to experimental warming than the native plant, resulting in increased flowering overlap between the native the invasive plants. There was a four-fold increase in the number of native flowers co-flowering with high densities of invasive flowers suggesting native plant competition for pollinators with invasive plants under a warmed climate. In the second experiment, we found depressed seed weights of the native species in high density floral patches that were dominated by invasive flowers relative to high density floral patches dominated by native flowers. At low floral densities, seed weight of native plants was unaffected by invasion. Together, these results demonstrate that by increasing their phenological overlap, warming may enhance the magnitude of existing competition for pollination exerted by an invasive plant on a native plant, particularly in plant patches with high floral density. Our results illustrate a novel pathway through which global change drivers can operate synergistically to alter an important ecosystem service - pollination.

RevDate: 2019-10-12

Yin Q, Wang J, Ren Z, et al (2019)

Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change.

Nature communications, 10(1):4640 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-12663-y.

Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality relationship. It reflects human adaptability to local climate. The existing MMT estimates were usually based on case studies in data rich regions, and limited evidence about MMT was available at a global scale. It is still unclear what the most significant driver of MMT is and how MMT will change under global climate change. Here, by analysing MMTs in 420 locations covering six continents (Antarctica was excluded) in the world, we found that although the MMT changes geographically, it is very close to the local most frequent temperature (MFT) in the same period. The association between MFT and MMT is not changed when we adjust for latitude and study year. Based on the MFT~MMT association, we estimate and map the global distribution of MMTs in the present (2010s) and the future (2050s) for the first time.

RevDate: 2019-10-12

Costain F (2019)

'Livestock are not the global warming enemy'.

The Veterinary record, 185(14):449.

ffinlo Costain argues that the focus on ruminant methane in causing global warming is ill-informed and in fact restoration of grass-based systems can result in net zero emissions from UK agriculture by 2030.

RevDate: 2019-10-11

Hoegh-Guldberg O, Jacob D, Taylor M, et al (2019)

The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 365(6459):.

Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have led to a global mean surface temperature 1.0°C higher than during the pre-industrial period. We expand on the recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C and review the additional risks associated with higher levels of warming, each having major implications for multiple geographies, climates, and ecosystems. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C would be required to maintain substantial proportions of ecosystems and would have clear benefits for human health and economies. These conclusions are relevant for people everywhere, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where the escalation of climate-related risks may prevent the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

RevDate: 2019-10-11

Lochhead K, Ghafghazi S, LeMay V, et al (2019)

Examining the vulnerability of localized reforestation strategies to climate change at a macroscale.

Journal of environmental management, 252:109625 pii:S0301-4797(19)31343-X [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is altering the nature and condition of vast areas in the boreal forest of Canada. There are great uncertainties concerning impacts on the forest, along with how policy and economic responses will translate effectively between local and macroscales. In particular, planting tree seedlings with improved characteristics following harvesting is one localized response strategy considered essential by policymakers. However, planting costs limit the macroscale adoption of this strategy which may result in trade-offs between profitability and reducing vulnerability. In this study, we developed a decision support tool (called Q3) that links stand-level decision making to the macroscale and applied this model to investigate the financial attractiveness of planting improved stocks under one climate change threat, drought-induced seedling mortality. Using several scenarios describing planting effort, improved yields and risk to drought-induced seedling mortality, we showed that adopting improved planting stock strategies across a macroscale (i.e., the western Boreal forest of Canada) can be financially attractive when considering stand-establishment constraints and drought risk. In particular, a proactive approach can be less costly than a reactive approach to drought-induced seedling mortality. To maximize profits, the forestry industry would need to prioritize younger stands closer to processing mills that had a smaller percentage of conifer growing stocks prior to harvest. This research improves the linkages between macroscale policies and forest management activities critical for recommending future development paths that the forestry industry could follow to decrease climate change vulnerabilities.

RevDate: 2019-10-11

Duncan B, Johnson KD, Suchanek TH, et al (2019)

Developing ocean climate change indicators for the north-central California coast and ocean.

Journal of environmental management, 252:109343 pii:S0301-4797(19)31052-7 [Epub ahead of print].

The Ocean Climate Indicators Project, developed for the Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (GFNMS), yielded the first set of physical and biological ocean climate indicators specifically developed for the north-central California coast and ocean region, which extends from Point Arena to Point Año Nuevo and includes the ocean shorelines of the San Francisco metropolitan area. This case study produced a series of physical and biological indicator categories through a best professional judgment (BPJ) process with an interdisciplinary group of over 50 regional research scientists and marine resource managers from a wide range of state and federal agencies, NGOs, and universities. A working group of research scientists and marine resource managers used this set of ocean climate indicators to develop the Ocean Climate Indicators Monitoring Inventory and Plan. The Plan includes monitoring goals and objectives common for eight physical and four biological indicators; specific goals for each indicator; monitoring strategies and activities; an inventory of available monitoring data; opportunities for expanding or improving existing or new monitoring approaches; and case studies with specific examples of the indicators' utility for natural resource management and basic scientific research. Beyond developing indicators that support effective science-based management decisions, this scalable process established and strengthened mutually beneficial connections between scientists and managers, resulting in indicators that had broad support of project participants, were quickly adopted by the GFNMS, and could be used by managers and scientists from this region and beyond.

RevDate: 2019-10-10

Logan ML, Minnaar IA, Keegan KM, et al (2019)

The evolutionary potential of an insect invader under climate change.

Evolution; international journal of organic evolution [Epub ahead of print].

Although the impacts of climate change and invasive species are typically studied in isolation, they likely interact to reduce the viability of plant and animal populations. Indeed, invasive species, by definition, have succeeded in areas outside of their native range, and may therefore have higher adaptive capacity relative to native species. Nevertheless, the genetic architecture of the thermal niche, which sets a limit to the potential for populations to evolve rapidly under climate change, has never been measured in an invasive species in its invasive range. Here, we estimate the genetic architecture of thermal performance in the harlequin beetle (Harmonia axyridis), a Central Asian species that has invaded four continents. We measured thermal performance curves in more than 400 third generation offspring from a paternal half-sib breeding experiment and analyzed the genetic variance-covariance matrix. We show that while the critical thermal limits in this species have an additive genetic basis, most components of the thermal performance curve have low heritability. Moreover, we found evidence that genetic correlations may constrain the evolution of beetles under climate change. Our results suggest that some invasive species may have limited evolutionary capacity under climate change, despite their initial success in colonizing novel environments. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-10-10

Tiba S (2019)

A non-linear assessment of the urbanization and climate change nexus: the African context.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-06475-2 [Epub ahead of print].

The climate change issue becomes more challenging with the increasing pace of urbanization in Africa. For this purpose, we attempt to examine the relationship urbanization and CO2 emissions by applying the panel smooth transition regression model for 47 African countries during the spanning time 1990-2014. Our results reveal that the nexus between urbanization and CO2 emissions is non-linear. Our highlights recorded a monotonic nexus confirming the existence of the EKC hypothesis for the urbanization. In addition, our empirical results determine the threshold of the transition which takes the value of 42.01. Moreover, the estimated slope parameter implies that the nexus between urbanization and CO2 emissions smoothly switches from one regime to another regime but relatively rapid. Hence, it is extremely important to understand this nexus to take seriously climate change vulnerabilities. Indeed, the African economies are invited to establish efficiently the low-carbon and reduce the spatial heterogeneity to generate the green development path and provide effective structures for a platform for sustainable cities.

RevDate: 2019-10-10

Finkel ML (2019)

A call for action: integrating climate change into the medical school curriculum.

RevDate: 2019-10-10

Vogel MM, Zscheischler J, Wartenburger R, et al (2019)

Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human-Induced Climate Change.

Earth's future, 7(7):692-703.

Extremely high temperatures pose an immediate threat to humans and ecosystems. In recent years, many regions on land and in the ocean experienced heat waves with devastating impacts that would have been highly unlikely without human-induced climate change. Impacts are particularly severe when heat waves occur in regions with high exposure of people or crops. The recent 2018 spring-to-summer season was characterized by several major heat and dry extremes. On daily average between May and July 2018 about 22% of the populated and agricultural areas north of 30° latitude experienced concurrent hot temperature extremes. Events of this type were unprecedented prior to 2010, while similar conditions were experienced in the 2010 and 2012 boreal summers. Earth System Model simulations of present-day climate, that is, at around +1 °C global warming, also display an increase of concurrent heat extremes. Based on Earth System Model simulations, we show that it is virtually certain (using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calibrated uncertainty language) that the 2018 north hemispheric concurrent heat events would not have occurred without human-induced climate change. Our results further reveal that the average high-exposure area projected to experience concurrent warm and hot spells in the Northern Hemisphere increases by about 16% per additional +1 °C of global warming. A strong reduction in fossil fuel emissions is paramount to reduce the risks of unprecedented global-scale heat wave impacts.

RevDate: 2019-10-10

Veron S, Mouchet M, Govaerts R, et al (2019)

Vulnerability to climate change of islands worldwide and its impact on the tree of life.

Scientific reports, 9(1):14471 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-51107-x.

Island systems are among the most vulnerable to climate change, which is predicted to induce shifts in temperature, rainfall and/or sea levels. Our aim was: (i) to map the relative vulnerability of islands to each of these threats from climate change on a worldwide scale; (ii) to estimate how island vulnerability would impact phylogenetic diversity. We focused on monocotyledons, a major group of flowering plants that includes taxa of important economic value such as palms, grasses, bananas, taro. Islands that were vulnerable to climate change were found at all latitudes, e.g. in Australia, Indonesia, the Caribbean, Pacific countries, the United States, although they were more common near the equator. The loss of highly vulnerable islands would lead to relatively low absolute loss of plant phylogenetic diversity. However, these losses tended to be higher than expected by chance alone even in some highly vulnerable insular systems. This suggests the possible collapse of deep and long branches in vulnerable islands. Measuring the vulnerability of each island is a first step towards a risk analysis to identify where the impacts of climate change are the most likely and what may be their consequences on biodiversity.

RevDate: 2019-10-08

Viana Ferreira AM, Marajó L, Matoso DA, et al (2019)

Chromosomal Mapping of Rex Retrotransposons in Tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum Cuvier, 1818) Exposed to Three Climate Change Scenarios.

Cytogenetic and genome research pii:000502926 [Epub ahead of print].

Greenhouse gas emissions are known to influence the planet's temperature, mainly due to human activities. To allow hypothesis testing, as well as to seek viable alternatives for mitigation, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested 3 main scenarios for changes projected for the year 2100. In this paper, we subjected Colossoma macropomum Cuvier, 1818 (tambaqui) individuals in a microcosm to IPCC scenarios B1 (mild), A1B (intermediate), and A2 (extreme) to test possible impacts on their genome. We found chromosome heterochromatinization in specimens exposed to the A2 scenario, where terminal blocks and interstitial bands were detected on several chromosome pairs. The behavior of Rex1 and Rex3 sequences differed between the test scenarios. Hybridization of Rex1 resulted in diffuse signals which showed a gradual increase in the tested scenarios. For Rex3, an increase was observed in the A2 scenario with blocks on several chromosomes, some of which coincided with heterochromatin. Heterochromatinization is an epigenetic process, which may have occurred as a mechanism for regulating Rex3 activity. The signal pattern of Rex6 did not change, suggesting that other mechanisms are acting to regulate its activity.

RevDate: 2019-10-08

Catullo RA, Llewelyn J, Phillips BL, et al (2019)

The Potential for Rapid Evolution under Anthropogenic Climate Change.

Current biology : CB, 29(19):R996-R1007.

Understanding how natural populations will respond to rapid anthropogenic climate change is one of the greatest challenges for ecologists and evolutionary biologists. Much research has focussed on whether physiological traits can evolve quickly enough under rapidly increasing temperatures. While the simple Breeder's equation helps to understand how extreme temperatures and genetic variation might drive within-population evolution under climate change, it does not consider two key areas: how different forms of phenotypic plasticity interact and variation among populations. Plasticity can modify the exposure to climatic extremes and the strength of selection from those extremes, while differences among populations provide adaptive diversity not apparent within them. Here, we focus on terrestrial vertebrates and, with a case study on a tropical lizard, demonstrate the complex interplay between spatial, genetic and plastic contributions to variation in climate-relevant physiological traits. We identify several problems that need to be better understood: which traits are under selection in a changing climate; the different forms of plasticity relevant to population persistence and rapid evolution; plastic versus genetic contributions to geographic variation in climate-associated traits and whether plasticity can be harnessed to promote persistence of species. Given ongoing uncertainties around whether natural populations can evolve rapidly enough to persist, we advocate the use of field trials aimed at increasing rates of adaptation, especially in systems known to be strongly impacted by human-driven changes in climate.

RevDate: 2019-10-08

Clayton S (2019)

Psychology and climate change.

Current biology : CB, 29(19):R992-R995.

Research and theory from psychology are increasingly being utilized to understand potential impacts of climate change and to promote positive responses. In this Primer, Clayton describes three main areas in which psychological research provides relevant insights, and provides suggestions for encouraging mitigation and adaptation behavior.

RevDate: 2019-10-08

He Q, BR Silliman (2019)

Climate Change, Human Impacts, and Coastal Ecosystems in the Anthropocene.

Current biology : CB, 29(19):R1021-R1035.

Coastal zones, the world's most densely populated regions, are increasingly threatened by climate change stressors - rising and warming seas, intensifying storms and droughts, and acidifying oceans. Although coastal zones have been affected by local human activities for centuries, how local human impacts and climate change stressors may interact to jeopardize coastal ecosystems remains poorly understood. Here we provide a review on interactions between climate change and local human impacts (e.g., interactions between sea level rise and anthropogenic land subsidence, which are forcing Indonesia to relocate its capital city) in the coastal realm. We highlight how these interactions can impair and, at times, decimate a variety of coastal ecosystems, and examine how understanding and incorporating these interactions can reshape theory on climate change impacts and ecological resilience. We further discuss implications of interactions between climate change and local human impacts for coastal conservation and elucidate the context when and where local conservation is more likely to buffer the impacts of climate change, attempting to help reconcile the growing debate about whether to shift much of the investment in local conservation to global CO2 emission reductions. Our review underscores that an enhanced understanding of interactions between climate change and local human impacts is of profound importance to improving predictions of climate change impacts, devising climate-smart conservation actions, and helping enhance adaption of coastal societies to climate change in the Anthropocene.

RevDate: 2019-10-08

Kuehn L, J Balbus (2019)

Addressing the health, safety, welfare, and dignity of all humans: PAs and climate change.

JAAPA : official journal of the American Academy of Physician Assistants [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-10-08

Bury SM, Wenzel M, L Woodyatt (2019)

Against the odds: Hope as an antecedent of support for climate change action.

The British journal of social psychology [Epub ahead of print].

While individuals are often viewed as rational actors, engaging in action that promises success, sometimes they act despite low odds. We report two studies that investigate hope as a motivational resource during times when the odds of success seem low. We argue that when people are personally invested in the cause, their hope leaps with emerging possibility (low likelihood) of a positive outcome, but linearly aligns with likelihood for more probable outcomes (i.e., hope is a cubic function of likelihood). Crucially, hope then motivates support for collective action, in this case support for climate action, thus illuminating the possible antecedents for collective action against the odds. In Study 1, with a highly invested sample, hope mediated the relationship between cubic likelihood and support for climate change action. Study 2 extended these findings, showing that for individuals strongly invested in the outcome (but not for those less invested), hope arose with possibility but not probability of success, leading to greater support for climate change action. Hope's unique motivational role arises when the odds are low, when success is only possible rather than probable. These then represent the conditions that facilitate support for collective action against the odds.

RevDate: 2019-10-07

Grabow M, Bryan T, Checovich M, et al (2018)

Mindfulness and Climate Change Action: A Feasibility Study.

Sustainability, 10(5):.

Pro-environmental behaviors and the cultural shifts that can accompany these may offer solutions to the consequences of a changing climate. Mindfulness has been proposed as a strategy to initiate these types of behaviors. In 2017, we pilot-tested Mindful Climate Action (MCA), an eight-week adult education program that delivers energy use, climate change, and sustainability content in combination with training in mindfulness meditation, to 16 individuals living in Madison, WI. At baseline and at different times across the study period, we collected data regarding participants, household energy use, transportation, diet, and health and happiness. This pilot study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of the various MCA study practices including measurement tools, outcome assessment, curriculum and related educational materials, and especially the mindfulness-based climate action trainings. MCA was well-received by participants as evidenced by high adherence rate, high measures of participant satisfaction, and high participant response rate for surveys. In addition, we successfully demonstrated feasibility of the MCA program, and have estimated participant's individual carbon footprints related to diet, transportation, and household energy.

RevDate: 2019-10-05

Jansson JK, KS Hofmockel (2019)

Soil microbiomes and climate change.

Nature reviews. Microbiology pii:10.1038/s41579-019-0265-7 [Epub ahead of print].

The soil microbiome governs biogeochemical cycling of macronutrients, micronutrients and other elements vital for the growth of plants and animal life. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change on soil microbiomes and the ecosystem services they provide present a grand challenge and major opportunity as we direct our research efforts towards one of the most pressing problems facing our planet. In this Review, we explore the current state of knowledge about the impacts of climate change on soil microorganisms in different climate-sensitive soil ecosystems, as well as potential ways that soil microorganisms can be harnessed to help mitigate the negative consequences of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-10-05

Nisa CF, Bélanger JJ, Schumpe BM, et al (2019)

Meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials testing behavioural interventions to promote household action on climate change.

Nature communications, 10(1):4545 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-12457-2.

No consensus exists regarding which are the most effective mechanisms to promote household action on climate change. We present a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials comprising 3,092,678 observations, which estimates the effects of behavioural interventions holding other factors constant. Here we show that behavioural interventions promote climate change mitigation to a very small degree while the intervention lasts (d = -0.093 95% CI -0.160, -0.055), with no evidence of sustained positive effects once the intervention ends. With the exception of recycling, most household mitigation behaviours show a low behavioural plasticity. The intervention with the highest average effect size is choice architecture (nudges) but this strategy has been tested in a limited number of behaviours. Our results do not imply behavioural interventions are less effective than alternative strategies such as financial incentives or regulations, nor exclude the possibility that behavioural interventions could have stronger effects when used in combination with alternative strategies.

RevDate: 2019-10-04

De Boeck HJ, Bloor JM, Aerts R, et al (2019)

Understanding ecosystems of the future will require more than realistic climate change experiments - A response to Korell et al.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Critical examination of the approaches ecologists employ to understand complex ecological systems is integral to advancing our science. Recently, Korell et al. (2019) argued that climate change experiments would yield more relevant information on future functioning of ecosystems if the treatments imposed more closely reflected model-projected climate scenarios. To reach this conclusion, the authors evaluated 76 studies and found that changes in (manipulated) precipitation and air temperature generally did not match site-specific changes projected by Global Circulation Models.

RevDate: 2019-10-04

Rose Vineer H, Baber P, White T, et al (2019)

Reduced egg shedding in nematode-resistant ewes and projected epidemiological benefits under climate change.

International journal for parasitology pii:S0020-7519(19)30215-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Global livestock production is facing serious new challenges, including climate-driven changes in parasite epidemiology, and anthelmintic resistance, driving a need for non-chemotherapeutic methods of parasite control. Selecting for genetic resistance to gastrointestinal nematode infection could reduce reliance on chemical intervention and mitigate increases in parasite challenge due to climate change. Ewes of the composite Exlana breed with a range of estimated breeding values (EBVs) based on nematode faecal egg counts (FECs) were monitored during the peri-parturient period on two farms in southwestern England. Ewes with low EBVs ("resistant") had lower FECs during the peri-parturient period than those with high EBVs ("susceptible"): the mean FEC was reduced by 23% and 34% on Farms 1 and 2, respectively, while the peak FEC was reduced by 30% and 37%, respectively. Neither EBV nor FEC were correlated with key performance indicators (estimated milk yield, measured indirectly using 8 week lamb weight, and ewe weight loss during lactation). Simulations predict that the reduced FECs of resistant ewes would result in a comparable reduction in infection pressure (arising from eggs shed by ewes) for their lambs. Furthermore, although the reduced FECs observed were modest, simulations predicted that selecting for nematode resistance in ewes could largely offset predicted future climate-driven increases in pasture infectivity arising from eggs contributed by these ewes. Selective breeding of the maternal line for nematode resistance therefore has potential epidemiological benefits by reducing pasture infectivity early in the grazing season and alleviating the need for anthelmintic treatment of ewes during the peri-parturient period, thus reducing selection pressure for anthelmintic resistance. These benefits are magnified under predicted future climate change. The maternal line warrants more attention in selective breeding programmes for nematode resistance.

RevDate: 2019-10-04

Castrillo D, Rabuñal E, Neira N, et al (2019)

Oenological potential of non-Saccharomyces yeasts to mitigate effects of climate change in winemaking: impact on aroma and sensory profiles of Treixadura wines.

FEMS yeast research pii:5581503 [Epub ahead of print].

The effects of climate change on wine include high alcohol content, low acidity and aroma imbalance. The potential of several non-Saccharomyces wine yeasts to mitigate these effects was evaluated by sequential fermentation of Treixadura grape must. Fermentations with only Saccharomyces cerevisiae ScXG3 and a spontaneous process were used as control assays. All yeast strains were obtained from the yeast collection of Estación de Viticulture e Enoloxía de Galicia (EVEGA), Galicia, Spain. Fermentation kinetics as well as yeast dynamics and implantation ability varied depending on inoculated yeasts. In addition, the results showed significant differences in the chemical composition of wine. Starmerella bacillaris 474 reduced the alcohol content (1.1% vol) and increased the total acidity (1.2 g L-1) and glycerol of wines. Fermentation with Lachancea thermotolerans Lt93 and Torulaspora delbrueckii Td315 also decreased the alcohol content, although to a lesser extent (0.3% vol and 0.7% vol, respectively); however, their effect on wine acidity was less significant. The wines also differed in their concentration of volatile compounds and sensory characteristics. Thus, wines made with Metschnikowia fructicola Mf278 and S. cerevisiae ScXG3 had higher content of esters, acetates, and some acids than other wines, and were most appreciated by tasters due to their fruity character and overall impression.

RevDate: 2019-10-04

Bemmels JB, JT Anderson (2019)

Climate change shifts natural selection and the adaptive potential of the perennial forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains.

Evolution; international journal of organic evolution [Epub ahead of print].

Heritable genetic variation is necessary for populations to evolve in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, antagonistic genetic correlations among traits may constrain the rate of adaptation, even if substantial genetic variation exists. We examine potential genetic responses to selection by comparing multivariate genetic variance-covariances of traits and fitness (multivariate Robertson-Price identities) across different environments in a reciprocal transplant experiment of the forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains. By transplanting populations into four common gardens arrayed along an elevational gradient, and exposing populations to control and snow removal treatments, we simulated future and current climates and snowmelt regimes. Genetic variation in flowering and germination phenology declined in plants moved downslope to warmer, drier sites, suggesting that these traits may have a limited ability to evolve under future climates. Simulated climate change via snow removal altered the strength of selection on flowering traits, but we found little evidence that genetic correlations among traits are likely to affect the rate of adaptation to climate change. Overall, our results suggest that climate change may alter the evolutionary potential of B. stricta, but reduced expression of genetic variation may be a larger impediment to adaptation than constraints imposed by antagonistic genetic correlations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-10-04

Reis J, J Shortridge (2019)

Impact of Uncertainty Parameter Distribution on Robust Decision Making Outcomes for Climate Change Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty.

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis [Epub ahead of print].

Deep uncertainty in future climatic and economic conditions complicates developing infrastructure designed to last several generations, such as water reservoirs. In response, analysts have developed multiple robust decision frameworks to help identify investments and policies that can withstand a wide range of future states. Although these frameworks are adept at supporting decisions where uncertainty cannot be represented probabilistically, analysts necessarily choose probabilistic bounds and distributions for uncertain variables to support exploratory modeling. The implications of these assumptions on the analytical outcomes of robust decision frameworks are rarely evaluated, and little guidance exists in terms of how to select uncertain variable distributions. Here, we evaluate the impact of these choices by following the robust decision-making procedure, using four different assumptions about the probabilistic distribution of exogenous uncertainties in future climatic and economic states. We take a water reservoir system in Ethiopia as our case study, and sample climatic parameters from uniform, normal, extended uniform, and extended normal distributions; we similarly sample two economic parameters. We compute regret and satisficing robustness decision criteria for two performance measures, agricultural water demand coverage and net present value, and perform scenario discovery on the most robust reservoir alternative. We find lower robustness scores resulting from extended parameter distributions and demonstrate that parameter distributions can impact vulnerabilities identified through scenario discovery. Our results suggest that exploratory modeling within robust decision frameworks should sample from extended, uniform parameters distributions.

RevDate: 2019-10-03

Zhang X, X Huang (2019)

Human disturbance caused stronger influences on global vegetation change than climate change.

PeerJ, 7:e7763 pii:7763.

Global vegetation distribution has been influenced by human disturbance and climate change. The past vegetation changes were studied in numerous studies while few studies had addressed the relative contributions of human disturbance and climate change on vegetation change. To separate the influences of human disturbance and climate change on the vegetation changes, we compared the existing vegetation which indicates the vegetation distribution under human influences with the potential vegetation which reflects the vegetation distribution without human influences. The results showed that climate-induced vegetation changes only occurred in a few grid cells from the period 1982-1996 to the period 1997-2013. Human-induced vegetation changes occurred worldwide, except in the polar and desert regions. About 3% of total vegetation distribution was transformed by human activities from the period 1982-1996 to the period 1997-2013. Human disturbances caused stronger damage to global vegetation change than climate change. Our results indicated that the regions where vegetation experienced both human disturbance and climate change are eco-fragile regions.

RevDate: 2019-10-03

Dannenberg A, S Zitzelsberger (2019)

Climate experts' views on geoengineering depend on their beliefs about climate change impacts.

Nature climate change, 9(10):769-775.

Climate change damages are expected to increase with global warming, which could be limited directly by solar geoengineering. Here we analyse the views of 723 negotiators and scientists involved in international climate policy who will have a significant influence on whether solar geoengineering will be deployed to counter climate change. We find that respondents who expect severe global climate change damages and who have little confidence in current mitigation efforts are more opposed to geoengineering than respondents who are less pessimistic about global damages and mitigation efforts. However, we also find that respondents are more supportive of geoengineering when they expect severe climate change damages in their home country than when they have more optimistic expectations for the home country. Thus, when respondents are more personally affected, their views are closer to what rational cost-benefit analyses predict.

RevDate: 2019-10-03

Varma V, DP Bebber (2019)

Climate change impacts on banana yields around the world.

Nature climate change, 9(10):752-757.

Nutritional diversity is a key element of food security1-3. However, research on the effects of climate change on food security has, thus far, focussed on the major food grains4-8, while the response of other crops, particularly those that play an important role in the developing world, are poorly understood. Bananas are a staple food and a major export commodity for many tropical nations9. Here we show that for 27 countries - accounting for 86% of global dessert banana production - a changing climate since 1961 has increased yields by an average of 1.37 T.ha-1. Past gains have been largely ubiquitous across the countries assessed and African producers will continue to see yield increases into the future. However, global yield gains could be dampened or disappear in the future, reducing to 0.59 T.ha-1and 0.19 T.ha-1by 2050 under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, driven by declining yields amongst the largest producers and exporters. By quantifying climate-driven and technology-driven influences on yield, we also identify countries at risk from climate change and those capable of mitigating its effects, or capitalising on its benefits.

RevDate: 2019-10-02

Cisneros-Mata MA, Mangin T, Bone J, et al (2019)

Fisheries governance in the face of climate change: Assessment of policy reform implications for Mexican fisheries.

PloS one, 14(10):e0222317 pii:PONE-D-18-28905.

Climate change is driving shifts in the abundance and distribution of marine fish and invertebrates and is having direct and indirect impacts on seafood catches and fishing communities, exacerbating the already negative effects of unsustainably high fishing pressure that exist for some stocks. Although the majority of fisheries in the world are managed at the national or local scale, most existing approaches to assessing climate impacts on fisheries have been developed on a global scale. It is often difficult to translate from the global to regional and local settings because of limited relevant data. To address the need for fisheries management entities to identify those fisheries with the greatest potential for climate change impacts, we present an approach for estimating expected climate change-driven impacts on the productivity and spatial range of fisheries at the regional scale in a data-poor context. We use a set of representative Mexican fisheries as test cases. To assess the implications of climate impacts, we compare biomass, harvest, and profit outcomes from a bioeconomic model under contrasting management policies and with and without climate change. Overall results show that climate change is estimated to negatively affect nearly every fishery in our study. However, the results indicate that overfishing is a greater threat than climate change for these fisheries, hence fixing current management challenges has a greater upside than the projected future costs of moderate levels of climate change. Additionally, this study provides meaningful first approximations of potential effects of both climate change and management reform in Mexican fisheries. Using the climate impact estimations and model outputs, we identify high priority stocks, fleets, and regions for policy reform in Mexico in the face of climate change. This approach can be applied in other data-poor circumstances to focus future research and policy reform efforts on stocks now subject to additional stress due to climate change. Considering their growing relevance as a critical source of protein and micronutrients to nourish our growing population, it is urgent for regions to develop sound fishery management policies in the short-term as they are the most important intervention to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on marine fisheries.

RevDate: 2019-10-02

Tollefson J (2019)

World's oceans are losing power to stall climate change.

Nature, 574(7776):17-18.

RevDate: 2019-10-02

Gómez-Ruiz EP, TE Lacher (Jr) (2019)

Climate change, range shifts, and the disruption of a pollinator-plant complex.

Scientific reports, 9(1):14048 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-50059-6.

Climate change has significant impacts on the distribution of species and alters ecological processes that result from species interactions. There is concern that such distribution shifts will affect animal-plant pollination networks. We modelled the potential future (2050 and 2070) distribution of an endangered migratory bat species (Leptonycteris nivalis) and the plants they pollinate (Agave spp) during their annual migration from central Mexico to the southern United States. Our models show that the overlap between the Agave and the endangered pollinating bat will be reduced by at least 75%. The reduction of suitable areas for Agave species will restrict the foraging resources available for the endangered bat, threatening the survival of its populations and the maintenance of their pollination service. The potential extinction of the bat L. nivalis will likely have negative effects on the sexual reproduction and genetic variability of Agave plants increasing their vulnerability to future environmental changes.

RevDate: 2019-10-02

Serrano O, Lovelock CE, B Atwood T, et al (2019)

Australian vegetated coastal ecosystems as global hotspots for climate change mitigation.

Nature communications, 10(1):4313 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-12176-8.

Policies aiming to preserve vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE; tidal marshes, mangroves and seagrasses) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions require national assessments of blue carbon resources. Here, we present organic carbon (C) storage in VCE across Australian climate regions and estimate potential annual CO2 emission benefits of VCE conservation and restoration. Australia contributes 5-11% of the C stored in VCE globally (70-185 Tg C in aboveground biomass, and 1,055-1,540 Tg C in the upper 1 m of soils). Potential CO2 emissions from current VCE losses are estimated at 2.1-3.1 Tg CO2-e yr-1, increasing annual CO2 emissions from land use change in Australia by 12-21%. This assessment, the most comprehensive for any nation to-date, demonstrates the potential of conservation and restoration of VCE to underpin national policy development for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

RevDate: 2019-10-02

Song Y, Wang C, Linderholm HW, et al (2019)

Agricultural Adaptation to Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(19): pii:ijerph16193686.

The Tibetan plateau is one of the most sensitive areas in China and has been significantly affected by global warming. From 1961 to 2017, the annual air temperature increased by 0.32 °C/decade over the Tibetan Plateau, which is the highest in the whole of China. Furthermore, this is a trend that is projected to continue by 0.30 °C/decade from 2018 to 2050 due to global warming using the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). The increased temperature trend in recent decades has been highest in winter, which has been positive for the safe dormancy of winter wheat. In order to investigate agricultural adaptation to climate change in the Tibetan plateau, we used the World Food Studies (WOFOST) cropping systems model and weather data from the regional climate model RegCM4, to simulate winter wheat production in Guide county between 2018 and 2050. The simulated winter wheat potential yields amounted to 6698.3 kg/ha from 2018 to 2050, which showed the wheat yields would increase by 81%, if winter wheat was planted instead of spring wheat in the Tibetan Plateau with the correct amount of irrigation water. These results indicate that there are not only risks to crop yields from climate change, but also potential benefits. Global warming introduced the possibility to plant winter wheat instead of spring wheat over the Tibetan Plateau. These findings are very important for farmers and government agencies dealing with agricultural adaptation in a warmer climate.

RevDate: 2019-10-02

Riddell EA, Iknayan KJ, Wolf BO, et al (2019)

Cooling requirements fueled the collapse of a desert bird community from climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1908791116 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change threatens global biodiversity by increasing extinction risk, yet few studies have uncovered a physiological basis of climate-driven species declines. Maintaining a stable body temperature is a fundamental requirement for homeothermic animals, and water is a vital resource that facilitates thermoregulation through evaporative cooling, especially in hot environments. Here, we explore the potential for thermoregulatory costs to underlie the community collapse of birds in the Mojave Desert over the past century in response to climate change. The probability of persistence was lowest for species occupying the warmest and driest sites, which imposed the greatest cooling costs. We developed a general model of heat flux to evaluate whether water requirements for evaporative cooling contributed to species' declines by simulating thermoregulatory costs in the Mojave Desert for 50 bird species representing the range of observed declines. Bird species' declines were positively associated with climate-driven increases in water requirements for evaporative cooling and exacerbated by large body size, especially for species with animal-based diets. Species exhibiting reductions in body size across their range saved up to 14% in cooling costs and experienced less decline than species without size reductions, suggesting total cooling costs as a mechanism underlying Bergmann's rule. Reductions in body size, however, are unlikely to offset the 50 to 78% increase in cooling costs threatening desert birds from future climate change. As climate change spreads warm, dry conditions across the planet, water requirements are increasingly likely to drive population declines, providing a physiological basis for climate-driven extinctions.

RevDate: 2019-10-02

Iacobucci G (2019)

Campaign group urges GMC to support doctors taking direct action against climate change.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 366:l5785.

RevDate: 2019-09-30

Myers TA, Roser-Renouf C, Maibach E, et al (2017)

Exposure to the Pope's Climate Change Message Activated Convinced Americans to Take Certain Activism Actions.

Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ), 1(4):1600019 pii:GCH2201600019.

Many people who are concerned about the issue of climate change do not engage in the collective action behaviors that are most likely to lead to societal-scale solutions. Such attitude-behavior inconsistency is a well-documented phenomenon. This study investigates whether exposure to an effectively framed message from a highly credible source can increase the consistency between attitudes and activism behaviors among people with pre-existing strong attitudes, particularly for behaviors that are less difficult. The release of Pope Francis' climate change encyclical, Laudato Sí, and subsequent visit to the United States provide an opportunity to test this research question in a natural field setting. A nationally representative, within-subject panel survey was conducted two months prior to the release of the encyclical and again four months later, after the release and papal visit, to assess the impact of the Pope's message on Americans' climate change consumer and political advocacy behaviors. Among people who are already concerned about climate change, higher exposure to the Pope's climate change message is associated with increases in attitude-behavior consistency for less difficult activism behaviors. The findings suggest that sustained exposure to compelling climate messages from trusted sources can increase the performance of activism behaviors.

RevDate: 2019-09-30

van der Linden S, Leiserowitz A, Rosenthal S, et al (2017)

Inoculating the Public against Misinformation about Climate Change.

Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ), 1(2):1600008 pii:GCH2201600008.

Effectively addressing climate change requires significant changes in individual and collective human behavior and decision-making. Yet, in light of the increasing politicization of (climate) science, and the attempts of vested-interest groups to undermine the scientific consensus on climate change through organized "disinformation campaigns," identifying ways to effectively engage with the public about the issue across the political spectrum has proven difficult. A growing body of research suggests that one promising way to counteract the politicization of science is to convey the high level of normative agreement ("consensus") among experts about the reality of human-caused climate change. Yet, much prior research examining public opinion dynamics in the context of climate change has done so under conditions with limited external validity. Moreover, no research to date has examined how to protect the public from the spread of influential misinformation about climate change. The current research bridges this divide by exploring how people evaluate and process consensus cues in a polarized information environment. Furthermore, evidence is provided that it is possible to pre-emptively protect ("inoculate") public attitudes about climate change against real-world misinformation.

RevDate: 2019-09-30

Feulner G (2017)

Global Challenges: Climate Change.

Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ), 1(1):5-6 pii:GCH21003.

RevDate: 2019-09-30

Li Y, Fouad WA, LF Vega (2019)

Interfacial anomaly in low global warming potential refrigerant blends as predicted by molecular dynamics simulations.

Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP [Epub ahead of print].

Understanding the phase behavior and accurately predicting the thermophysical, interfacial and transport properties of low global warming, fourth generation refrigerants is essential for designing and evaluating refrigeration cycle performances and determining the optimal refrigerant or blends for a selected application. In this paper, we have used molecular dynamics simulations to study the vapour-liquid interface of fourth generation refrigerants including 2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234yf), trans-1,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234ze(E)), methylpropane (isobutane, HC-600a) and binary mixtures containing HFO-1234yf + HC-600a and HFO-1234ze(E) + HC-600a as new alternatives to third generation refrigerants. We provide predictions on their vapour-liquid equilibrium and interfacial properties (such as density profiles, interface thickness and surface tension) derived from the simulations. The results are compared to the experimental data, when available, and calculations made using the statistical associating fluid theory (SAFT). It is found that the mixtures of HFO-1234yf + HC-600a and HFO-1234ze(E) + HC-600a present azeotropic and aneotropic behavior. Molecular dynamics simulations corroborate the aneotrope already predicted by SAFT for these mixtures, highlighting the robustness of using molecular modeling techniques to investigate the performance of low GWP refrigerants and their blends as complementary tools to obtain the required data for the optimization of these systems. Insights into the molecular behavior at compositions before the aneotrope, at the aneotrope and after the aneotrope are provided based on radial distribution functions. It is shown that HC-600a and HFO molecules tend to stay closer to the same type of molecules and accumulate at different sides of the liquid region to act like pure components at the aneotropic composition.

RevDate: 2019-09-30

Duarte M, Guerrero PC, Arroyo MTK, et al (2019)

Niches and climate-change refugia in hundreds of species from one of the most arid places on Earth.

PeerJ, 7:e7409 pii:7409.

Background and Aims: Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. Several arid areas might expand in the future, but it is not clear if this change would be positive or negative for arid-adapted lineages. Here, we explore whether climatic niche properties are involved in the configuration of climate refugia and thus in future species trends.

Methods: To estimate putative climate refugia and potential expansion areas, we used maximum entropy models and four climate-change models to generate current and future potential distributions of 142 plant species endemic to the Atacama and mediterranean Chilean ecosystems. We assessed the relationship between the similarity and breadth of thermal and precipitation niches with the size of climate refugia and areas of potential expansions.

Key Results: We found a positive relationship between breadth and similarity for thermal niche with the size of climate refugia, but only niche similarity of the thermal niche was positively related with the size of expansion areas. Although all lineages would reduce their distributions in the future, few species are predicted to be at risk of extinction in their current distribution, and all of them presented potential expansion areas.

Conclusion: Species with a broad niche and niche dissimilarity will have larger refugia, and species with niche dissimilarity will have larger expansion areas. In addition, our prediction for arid lineages shows that these species will be moderately affected by climate change.

RevDate: 2019-09-30

He X, Liang J, Zeng G, et al (2019)

The Effects of Interaction between Climate Change and Land-Use/Cover Change on Biodiversity-Related Ecosystem Services.

Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ), 3(9):1800095 pii:GCH2201800095.

Climate change and land-use/cover change (LUCC) are two major types of global environmental change. They are increasingly challenging the main objectives of ecosystem management, which are to provide ecosystem services sustainably to society and maintain biodiversity. However, a comprehensive understanding of how climate-land-use change affects these primary goals of ecosystem management is still lacking. Here, a global literature review on the impacts of climate change and LUCC on ecosystem services related to biodiversity is presented. In this review, possible ecological responses at species, community, and ecosystem levels, and the effects of interaction mechanisms between climate change and LUCC on biodiversity-related ecosystem services are identified. The results show possible effects on species facing climate change challenges through affecting distribution/range shifts, interspecific relations, richness, and abundance, and the impacts on biodiversity through increasing extinction rates, nutrient deposition, and habitat fragmentation under LUCC. Climate change may hinder the ability of species to deal with LUCC, and in turn LUCC could reduce resilience to climate change. Understanding of these interactions is necessary to address the increasing pressure on sustainable provisioning of ecosystem services under different climate and land-use scenarios in the future.

RevDate: 2019-09-30

Yang X, Chen L, SS Ho (2019)

Does media exposure relate to the illusion of knowing in the public understanding of climate change?.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

By acknowledging that people are cognitive misers, this study proposes that people may rely on the illusion of knowing as cognitive devices for attitudinal or behavioral change, in addition to factual knowledge. Accordingly, this study shifted the focus of inquiry from assessing media effects in increasing factual knowledge to assessing how media consumption relates to the illusion of knowing. Using a nationally door-to-door survey in Singapore (N = 705), the results revealed that individuals' attention to media messages about climate change and elaboration of these messages were positively related to the illusion of knowing. Furthermore, elaboration had moderating effects on the relationship between media attention and the illusion of knowing. These findings suggest that media consumption of climate change messages could drive the illusion of knowing, which is speculated to account for pro-environmental behaviors in addressing climate change. Theoretical and practical implications were discussed.

RevDate: 2019-09-29

Tao Y, Zhang Y, Cao J, et al (2019)

Climate change has weakened the ability of Chinese lakes to bury polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987), 255(Pt 2):113288 pii:S0269-7491(19)33641-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Burial in sediments is a crucial way to reduce mobilization and risks of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs), but ability of sediments to bury HOCs may be altered if the environment is changed. Whether the ability of sediments to bury HOCs has been affected by climate change remains largely unclear. We excluded the impacts of anthropogenic emissions and eutrophication from that of climate change, and for the first time found that not only the rising surface air temperature but also the declining wind speed and the reducing days with precipitation had weakened the ability of Chinese lakes to bury 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) by 69.2% ± 9.4%-85.7% ± 3.6% from 1951 to 2017. The relative contributions of the climatic variables to the reduced burial ability depended on the properties of the PAHs, and lakes. Burial ability of the PAHs responded differently to climate change, and was correlated to their volatilization and aqueous solubility, and lake area, catchment area/lake area ratio, and water depth. Our study suggests that not only the rising surface air temperature but also the declining wind speed and the reducing days with precipitation can undermine global efforts to reduce environmental and human exposure to PAHs.

RevDate: 2019-09-29

Paul A, Deka J, Gujre N, et al (2019)

Does nature of livelihood regulate the urban community's vulnerability to climate change? Guwahati city, a case study from North East India.

Journal of environmental management, 251:109591 pii:S0301-4797(19)31309-X [Epub ahead of print].

There is dearth of studies on climate change based vulnerabilities of the urban people. It has been a matter of widespread debate whether nature of livelihood has any role to play in regulating the vulnerabilities of an individual. To find an answer, in a first ever attempt, this study tested three different approaches viz. Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) models and Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) to estimate climate change vulnerability of urban communities from various livelihoods in Guwahati city, Assam, India. Guwahati is considered to be the gateway to the seven North Eastern states of India and therefore strategically very important for this region. A structured survey was conducted involving 200 stakeholders from various livelihood sectors viz. construction workers, perishable item sellers, farmers, taxi/auto driver/rickshaw puller/coolie, tea stall/fast food seller, gas cylinder deliverymen, street vendors/salespersons, traffic police/police, doctors and boatmen. Data was systematically aggregated and examined using the above-mentioned composite indices. The differential vulnerabilities were compared and results suggested that the farmers were the most vulnerable community by virtue of their high sensitivity towards health, economic losses, exacerbated by their poor adaptive capacity toward unpredictable climatic variations. Doctors were the least vulnerable owing to their higher levels of awareness and adaptive capacity. These results reiterated the importance of awareness and access to resources in regulating vulnerability. The vulnerability scores also revealed that LVI and Model II (M II) of LVI IPCC approaches were the two most suitable indices and could be used for comparative vulnerability analysis. These pragmatic approaches can be used to assess the community vulnerabilities and could stimulate robust Climate Smart Urban Planning (CSUP).

RevDate: 2019-09-27

Anríquez G, G Toledo (2019)

De-climatizing food security: Lessons from climate change micro-simulations in Peru.

PloS one, 14(9):e0222483 pii:PONE-D-17-29843.

This paper brings advances in weather data collection and modeling, and developments in socioeconomic climate microsimulations to bear on the analysis of the implications of climate change (CC) in the design of public policies to combat food insecurity. It uses new downscaled predictions of future climate in 2050, derived from three Earth System Models calibrated with a new historical weather station dataset for Peru. This climate data is used in a three-stage socioeconomic microsimulation model that includes climate risk, and deals with the endogeneity of incomes and simultaneity of expected food consumption and its variability. We estimate the impact of CC on agricultural yields, and find results consistent and fully bounded within what the global simulations literature has found, with yields falling up to 13% in some regions. However, we show that these drops (and increases) in yields translate to much smaller changes in food consumption, and also surprisingly, to very minor impacts on vulnerability to food insecurity. The document explores what explains this surprising result, showing that in addition to characteristics that are specific to Peru, there are household and market mediating mechanisms that are available in all countries, which explain how changes in yields, and corresponding farm incomes have a reduced impact in vulnerability to food insecurity. Finally, in light of these findings, we explore which policies might have greater impact in reducing food insecurity in contexts of hunger prevalence.

RevDate: 2019-09-27

Vu TT, Tran DV, Tran HTP, et al (2019)

An assessment of the impact of climate change on the distribution of the grey-shanked douc Pygathrix cinerea using an ecological niche model.

Primates; journal of primatology pii:10.1007/s10329-019-00763-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change can have many negative impacts on wildlife species, and species with narrow distributions are more likely to be significantly affected. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling for species (MaxEnt software) as well as species occurrence data and climate variables to assess the impacts of climate change on the distribution of the grey-shanked douc-an endemic and rare primate species of Vietnam. We used climate data at the current time and two future times (2050 and 2070). Climate data were generated for two climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, together with three climate models ACCESS1-0, GFDL-CM3, and MPI-ESM-LR. We predicted that the distribution of the grey-shanked douc would be sharply reduced by the effects of climate change. The species' suitable distribution range in the future tended to shift toward the center of their current range and to higher mountainous areas. A larger suitable area, in particular highly suitable areas to the north and west of its current potential distribution range, would become less suitable or even unsuitable in 2050 and 2070. Kon Cha Rang Nature Reserve and Kon Ka Kinh National Park should be given priority in conservation of the grey-shanked douc because they now support important populations of the species and are in the highly suitable area remaining for the species in the future. The establishment of a new protected area for grey-shanked douc conservation should be considered in Kon Plong District, Kom Tum Province, which will be the center of the species distribution range.

RevDate: 2019-09-27

Florez-Sarasa I, Fernie AR, KJ Gupta (2019)

Does the alternative respiratory pathway offer protection against the adverse effects resulting from climate change?.

Journal of experimental botany pii:5574730 [Epub ahead of print].

Elevated greenhouse gases (GHG) induce adverse conditions directly and indirectly causing decreases in plant productivity. To deal with climate change effects, plants have developed various mechanisms including the fine-tuning of metabolism. Plant respiratory metabolism is highly flexible due to presence of various alternative pathways. The mitochondrial alternative oxidase (AOX) respiratory pathway is responsive to these changes and several lines of evidence suggest it plays a role in reducing excesses of ROS and RNS while providing metabolic flexibility under stress. Here we discuss the importance of the AOX pathway in dealing with elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ozone (O3) and the main abiotic stresses induced by climate change. Recent advances in our understanding concerning the in vivo regulation of AOX and its structural properties suggest that novel AOXs with altered regulatory properties could be used in future gene editing strategies. We suggest that fine-tune modulation of the regulatory properties of AOX and targeting its expression in different plant tissues could improve plant growth and productivity under climate change conditions promoted by elevated GHG. Moreover, we also emphasise the need of extensive study on the interactive effects of major global change factors on AOX respiration and the importance of studies differentiating between the roles of AOX in sink versus source tissues under field conditions in order to improve plant productivity in response to elevated GHG.

RevDate: 2019-09-27

Smull DM, Pendleton N, Kleinhesselink AR, et al (2019)

Climate change, snow mold and the Bromus tectorum invasion: mixed evidence for release from cold weather pathogens.

AoB PLANTS, 11(5):plz043 pii:plz043.

Climate change is reducing the depth and duration of winter snowpack, leading to dramatic changes in the soil environment with potentially important ecological consequences. Previous experiments in the Intermountain West of North America indicated that loss of snowpack increases survival and population growth rates of the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum; however, the underlying mechanism is unknown. We hypothesized that reduced snowpack might promote B. tectorum population growth by decreasing damage from snow molds, a group of subnivean fungal pathogens. To test this hypothesis, we conducted greenhouse and field experiments to investigate the interaction between early snowmelt and either fungicide addition or snow mold infection of B. tectorum. The greenhouse experiment confirmed that the snow mold Microdochium nivale can cause mortality of B. tectorum seedlings. In the field experiment, early snowmelt and fungicide application both increased B. tectorum survival, but their effects did not interact, and snow mold inoculation had no effect on survival. We did find interactive effects of snowmelt and fungal treatments on B. tectorum seed production: with ambient snowpack, M. nivale inoculation reduced seed production and fungicide increased it, whereas in the early snowmelt treatment seed production was high regardless of fungal treatment. However, treatment effects on seed production did not translate directly to overall population growth, which did not respond to the snow melt by fungal treatment interaction. Based on our mixed results, the hypothesis that reduced snowpack may increase B. tectorum fitness by limiting the effects of plant pathogens deserves further investigation.

RevDate: 2019-09-27

Jin Y, Xu J, He H, et al (2019)

The Changbai Alpine Shrub Tundra Will Be Replaced by Herbaceous Tundra under Global Climate Change.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 8(10): pii:plants8100370.

Significant replacement of shrub species by herbaceous species has been observed in the Changbai alpine tundra zone, China, since the 1990s. This study used plot surveys to analyze variations in the spatial distribution of dominant plants and to ascertain the changing mechanisms of dominant species in the alpine tundra zone. We found that the two previously dominant shrubs, Rhododendron chrysanthum and Vaccinium uliginosum, differed markedly in their distribution characteristics. The former had the highest abundance and the lowest coefficient of variation, skewness, and kurtosis, and the latter showed the opposite results, while the six herb species invaded had intermediate values. R. chrysanthum still had a relatively uniform distribution, while the herbaceous species and V. uliginosum had a patch distribution deviating from the normal distribution in the tundra zone. Micro-topography and slope grade had stronger effects on the spatial distribution of the eight plant species than elevation. Herbs tended to easily replace the shrubs on a semi-sunny slope aspect, steep slope, and depression. Overall, the dominance of dwarf shrubs declined, while the herbaceous species have encroached and expanded on the alpine tundra zone and have become co-dominant plant species. Our results suggest that various micro-topographic factors associated with variations in climatic and edaphic conditions determine the spatial distribution of plants in the alpine tundra zone. Future climate warming may cause decreased snow thickness, increased growing season length, and drought stress, which may further promote replacement of the shrubs by herbs, which shows retrogressive vegetation successions in the Changbai alpine tundra zone. Further studies need to focus on the physio-ecological mechanisms underlying the vegetation change and species replacement in the alpine tundra area under global climate change.

RevDate: 2019-09-26

Richard G, Le Trionnaire G, Danchin E, et al (2019)

Epigenetics and insect polyphenism: mechanisms and climate change impacts.

Current opinion in insect science, 35:138-145 pii:S2214-5745(18)30190-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Phenotypic plasticity is a ubiquitous process found in all living organisms. Polyphenism is an extreme case of phenotypic plasticity which shares a common scheme in insects such as honeybees, locusts or aphids: an initial perception of environmental stimuli, a neuroendocrine transmission of these signals to the target tissues, the activation of epigenetic mechanisms allowing the setup of alternative transcriptional programs responsible for the establishment of discrete phenotypes. Climate change can modulate the environmental stimuli triggering polyphenisms, and/or some epigenetics marks, thus modifying on the short and long terms the discrete phenotype proportions within populations. This might result in critical ecosystem changes.

RevDate: 2019-09-26

Bevacqua E, Maraun D, Vousdoukas MI, et al (2019)

Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change.

Science advances, 5(9):eaaw5531 pii:aaw5531.

In low-lying coastal areas, the co-occurrence of high sea level and precipitation resulting in large runoff may cause compound flooding (CF). When the two hazards interact, the resulting impact can be worse than when they occur individually. Both storm surges and heavy precipitation, as well as their interplay, are likely to change in response to global warming. Despite the CF relevance, a comprehensive hazard assessment beyond individual locations is missing, and no studies have examined CF in the future. Analyzing co-occurring high sea level and heavy precipitation in Europe, we show that the Mediterranean coasts are experiencing the highest CF probability in the present. However, future climate projections show emerging high CF probability along parts of the northern European coast. In several European regions, CF should be considered as a potential hazard aggravating the risk caused by mean sea level rise in the future.

RevDate: 2019-09-26

Malik AA, Martiny JBH, Brodie EL, et al (2019)

Defining trait-based microbial strategies with consequences for soil carbon cycling under climate change.

The ISME journal pii:10.1038/s41396-019-0510-0 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-09-26

Nowak D (2019)

Global Warming-the German Picture.

Deutsches Arzteblatt international, 116(31-32):519-520.

RevDate: 2019-09-25

Li L, Zheng Z, Wang W, et al (2019)

Terrestrial N2 O emissions and related functional genes under climate change: A global meta-analysis.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions from soil contribute to global warming and are in turn substantially affected by climate change. However, climate change impacts on N2 O production across terrestrial ecosystems remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesised 46 published studies of N2 O fluxes and relevant soil functional genes (SFGs, i.e. archaeal amoA, bacterial amoA, nosZ, narG, nirK and nirS) to assess their responses to increased temperature, increased or decreased precipitation amounts, and prolonged drought (no change in total precipitation but increase in precipitation intervals) in terrestrial ecosystem (i.e. grasslands, forests, shrublands, tundra and croplands). Across the dataset, temperature increased N2 O emissions by 33%. However, the effects were highly variable across biomes, with strongest temperature responses in shrublands, variable responses in forests and negative responses in tundra. The warming methods employed also influenced the effects of temperature on N2 O emissions (most effectively induced by open-top chambers). Whole-day or whole-year warming treatment significantly enhanced N2 O emissions, but day-time, night-time or short-season warming did not have significant effects. Regardless of biome, treatment method and season, increased precipitation promoted N2 O emission by an average of 55%, while decreased precipitation suppressed N2 O emission by 31%, predominantly driven by changes in soil moisture. The effect size of precipitation changes on nirS and nosZ showed a U-shape relationship with soil moisture; further insight into biotic mechanisms underlying N2 O emission response to climate change remain limited by data availability, underlying a need for studies that report SFG. Our findings indicate that climate change substantially affects N2 O emission and highlight the urgent need to incorporate this strong feedback into most climate models for convincing projection of future climate change.

RevDate: 2019-09-25

Sperlich D, Chang CT, Peñuelas J, et al (2019)

Responses of photosynthesis and component processes to drought and temperature stress: Are Mediterranean trees fit for climate change?.

Tree physiology pii:5566753 [Epub ahead of print].

Global warming is raising concerns about the acclimatory capacity of trees and forests, especially in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. The sensitivity of photosynthesis to temperature is a key uncertainty for projecting the magnitude of terrestrial feedbacks on future climate change. While boreal, temperate and tropical species have been comparatively well investigated our study provides the first comprehensive overview of the seasonal acclimatory responses of photosynthesis and its component processes to temperature in four Mediterranean climax species under natural conditions. We quantified seasonal changes in the responses of net photosynthesis (Anet), stomatal conductance (gs), mesophyllic conductance (gm), and electron-transport rate (Jcf) and investigated their sensitivity to drought and temperature stress in sunlit and shaded leaves of four Mediterranean tree species (Quercus ilex, Q. pubescens, Pinus halepensis, and Arbutus unedo). Sunlit leaves, but not shaded leaves, showed a pronounced seasonality in the temperature responses of Anet, gs, gm, Jcf. All four species and variables showed a remarkably dynamic and consistent acclimation of the thermal optimum reaching peaks in summer ~ 29-32°C. Changes in the shape of the response curves were, however, highly species-specific. Under severe drought, Topt of all variables were on average 22-29% lower. This was accompanied by narrower response curves above all in P. halepensis, reducing the optimal range for photosynthesis to the cooler morning or evening periods. Wider temperature-response curves and less strict stomatal control under severe drought were accompanied by wilting and drought-induced leaf shedding in Q. ilex and Q. pubescens and by additional branch dieback in A. unedo. Mild winter conditions led to a high Topt (~19.1-22.2°C)-benefitting the evergreen species, especially P. halepensis. Seasonal acclimation of Anet was explained better by gs and gm being less pronounced in Jcf. Drought was thus a key factor, in addition to growth temperature to explain seasonal acclimation of photosynthesis. Severe drought periods may exceed more frequently the high acclimatory capacity of Mediterranean trees to high ambient temperatures, which could lead to reduced growth, increased leaf shedding and, for some species such as A. unedo, increased mortality risk.

RevDate: 2019-09-25

Schiermeier Q, Atkinson K, Mega ER, et al (2019)

Scientists worldwide join strikes for climate change.

Nature, 573(7775):472-473.

RevDate: 2019-09-25

Londoño Pineda AA, Vélez Rojas Oscar OA, Jonathan MP, et al (2019)

Evaluation of climate change adaptation in the energy generation sector in Colombia via a composite index - A monitoring tool for government policies and actions.

Journal of environmental management, 250:109453 pii:S0301-4797(19)31171-5 [Epub ahead of print].

The aim of the article is to evaluate the national adaptation to climate change in the energy generation sector in Colombia via a composite index. To build an index, a framework by stages is used, which includes the definition of the main concepts that supports the measurements; the selection of the relevant indicators using a subject matter experts; standardization of the indicators using a mathematic formula regarding the relationship between the variables that represent the adaptation to climate change; and establishment of the weights using an analytic hierarchical process of paired comparisons and the aggregation of indicators to obtain the following three sub-indexes: reactive adaptation, wherein the replacement of hydraulic energy by thermal energy is evaluated; anticipatory adaptation, which measures the gap between the generation of total energy and the demand of the national energy system; and planned adaptation, which considers indicators such as the sectoral plan for adapting to climate change, the law of alternative energies, and the generation of alternative energies as a percentage of generation capacity. By adding these sub-indices, the climate change adaptation index (CCAI) is obtained. The results of CCAI show that progress was made from a reactive adaptation scenario in which the system vulnerability was high to an anticipatory adaptation scenario wherein the vulnerability was average, indicating that the foundations for this sector to build a planned adaptation are currently being laid.

RevDate: 2019-09-24

Sang Z, Sebastian-Azcona J, Hamann A, et al (2019)

Adaptive limitations of white spruce populations to drought imply vulnerability to climate change in its western range.

Evolutionary applications, 12(9):1850-1860 pii:EVA12845.

A cost-effective climate change adaptation strategy for the forestry sector is to move seed sources to more northern and higher elevation planting sites as part of ongoing reforestation programs. This is meant to match locally adapted populations with anticipated environments, but adaptive traits do not always show population differences suitable to mitigate climate change impacts. For white spruce, drought tolerance is a critical adaptive trait to prevent mortality and productivity losses. Here, we use a 40-year-old provenance experiment that has been exposed to severe drought periods in 1999 and 2002 to retrospectively investigate drought response and the adaptive capacity of white spruce populations across their boreal range. Relying on dendrochronological analysis under experimentally controlled environments, we evaluate population differences in resistance, resilience, and recovery to these extreme events. Results showed evidence for population differentiation in resistance and recovery parameters, but provenances conformed to approximately the same growth rates under drought conditions and had similar resilience metrics. The lack of populations with better growth rates under drought conditions is contrary to expectations for a wide-ranging species with distinct regional climates. Populations from the wettest environments in the northeastern boreal were surprisingly drought-tolerant, suggesting that these populations would readily resist water deficits projected for the 2080s, and supporting the view that northeastern Canada will provide a refugium for boreal species under climate change. The findings also suggest that white spruce is sensitive to growth reductions under climate change in the western boreal. The study highlights that population differentiation in adaptive capacity is species- and trait-specific, and we provide a counterexample for drought tolerance traits, where assisted migration prescriptions may be ineffective to mitigate climate change impacts. For resource managers and policy makers, we provide maps where planning for widespread declines of boreal white spruce forests may be unavoidable.

RevDate: 2019-09-24

Schlichtholz P (2019)

Subsurface ocean flywheel of coupled climate variability in the Barents Sea hotspot of global warming.

Scientific reports, 9(1):13692 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-49965-6.

Accelerated shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice cover is the main reason for the recent Arctic amplification of global warming. There is growing evidence that the ocean is involved in this phenomenon, but to what extent remains unknown. Here, a unique dataset of hydrographic profiles is used to infer the regional pattern of recent subsurface ocean warming and construct a skillful predictor for surface climate variability in the Barents Sea region - a hotspot of the recent climate change. It is shown that, in the era of satellite observations (1981-2018), summertime temperature anomalies of Atlantic water heading for the Arctic Ocean explain more than 80% of the variance of the leading mode of variability in the following winter sea ice concentration over the entire Northern Hemisphere, with main centers of action just in the Barents Sea region. Results from empirical forecast experiments demonstrate that predictability of the wintertime sea ice cover in the Barents Sea from subsurface ocean heat anomalies might have increased since the Arctic climate shift of the mid-2000s. In contrast, the corresponding predictability of the sea ice cover in the nearby Greenland Sea has been lost.

RevDate: 2019-09-25

Salas RN, AK Jha (2019)

Climate change threatens the achievement of effective universal healthcare.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 366:l5302.

RevDate: 2019-09-24

Lauchlan SS, Burckard G, Cassey P, et al (2019)

Climate change erodes competitive hierarchies among native, alien and range-extending crabs.

Marine environmental research pii:S0141-1136(19)30255-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Global warming and ocean acidification alter a wide range of animal behaviours, yet the effect on resource competition among species is poorly understood. We tested whether the combination of moderate levels of ocean acidification and warming altered the feeding success of co-occurring native, alien, and range-extending crab species, and how these changes affected their hierarchical dominance. Under contemporary conditions the range-extending species spent more time feeding, than the alien and the native species. Under conditions simulating future climate there was no difference in the proportion of time spent feeding among the three species. These behavioural changes translated to alterations in their dominance hierarchy (based on feeding success) with the most dominant species under present day conditions becoming less dominant under future conditions, and vice versa for the least dominant species. While empirical studies have predicted either reversal or strengthening of hierarchical dominance in animal species, we suggest that even moderate increases in ocean temperature and acidification can drive a homogenisation in behavioural competitiveness, eroding dominance differences among species that are linked to fitness-related traits in nature and hence important for their population persistence.

RevDate: 2019-09-23

Damert M, RJ Baumgartner (2018)

External Pressures or Internal Governance - What Determines the Extent of Corporate Responses to Climate Change?.

Corporate social responsibility and environmental management, 25(4):473-488.

To prevent adverse effects from climate change, it is vital to involve the private sector in mitigation efforts. So far, however, research has insufficiently addressed the determinants of corporate action in specific industries. Our paper aims at bridging this gap by empirically analyzing the global automotive industry's response to climate change mitigation issues. We use publicly available information from 105 sector leaders to investigate the role of external institutional pressures and intra-organizational governance in the extent of corporate action. Based on a multiple regression analysis, we find that organizational involvement and the integration of climate change into risk management exhibit the greatest influence. Moreover, companies with business activities that necessitate interaction with the end consumer tend to be most active. Our analysis furthermore indicates that neither the stringency of a firm's home country's climate policy regime nor the degree of internationalization is associated with a higher implementation level of response strategies. © 2017 The Authors. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management published by ERP Environment and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

RevDate: 2019-09-22

Bartosova A, Capell R, Olesen JE, et al (2019)

Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea.

Ambio pii:10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5 [Epub ahead of print].

The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.

RevDate: 2019-09-21

Rodriguez-Dominguez A, Connell SD, Leung JYS, et al (2019)

Adaptive responses of fishes to climate change: Feedback between physiology and behaviour.

The Science of the total environment, 692:1242-1249.

The adaptive capacity of individuals, from their cells to their overall performance, allows species to adjust to environmental change. We assess a hierarchy of responses (from cells to organismal growth and behaviour) to understand the flexibility of adaptive responses to future ocean conditions (warming and acidification) in two species of fish with short lifespans by conducting a long-term mesocosm/aquarium experiment. Fishes were exposed to elevated CO2 and temperature in a factorial design for a five-month period. We found a feedback mechanism between cellular defence and behavioural responses. In circumstances where their antioxidant defence mechanism was activated (i.e. warming or acidification), increased feeding rates prevented oxidative damage (i.e. during warming Sp. 1). However, when feeding rates failed to increase to provide additional energy needed for antioxidant defence, oxidative damage could not be prevented (warming + acidification Sp. 1). In contrast, when the activation of antioxidant defence was not required, energy intake from increased feeding was redirected to increased fish growth (acidification Sp. 2, warming + acidification Sp. 2), whilst no gain in growth rate was observed where feeding remained unchanged (acidification Sp. 1 or warming Sp. 2). This adaptive strategy seems to rely on the inherent behavioural response of fishes to their environment and such adjustability shows the kind of responses that organisms may express to prevail in future ocean climate. Indeed, assessing the link between responses from cellular to organismal levels, using a diversity of fitness indicators and behaviour, provides a fundamental understanding of how organisms as a whole may adjust to prevail in a future world.

RevDate: 2019-09-21

Bahri H, Annabi M, Cheikh M'Hamed H, et al (2019)

Assessing the long-term impact of conservation agriculture on wheat-based systems in Tunisia using APSIM simulations under a climate change context.

The Science of the total environment, 692:1223-1233.

Several circulation models are forecasting climate changes in the Mediterranean region. Accordingly, it is expected that water scarcity in the region will be higher with drastic shifts of hydrological and erosive watershed responses. In Tunisia, wheat yields have been variable over the years and are lower than the potential yields. In response, the adoption of conservation agriculture (CA), introduced into Tunisia in 1999 to help adaptation to climate change, has resulted in a substantial reduction in agricultural productivity. CA areas increased from 52 ha in 1999 to 14,000 ha in 2015. Using a modelling approach, the present paper evaluates the potential of CA to adapt wheat-based-systems to climate change in Tunisia. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model was used to predict the effect of tillage (conventional tillage [CT] vs. zero-tillage [ZT] and soil residue retention [ZT-RR]) on wheat productivity and soil fertility. Two contrasting locations in Tunisia were studied; one semi-arid (Kef) and one sub-humid (Bizerte). Results showed that the sustainable production of durum wheat under climate change conditions in Tunisia is possible through the adoption of CA practices (ZT and ZT-RR) in both sub-humid and semi-arid areas. In fact, mulching (residue retention) is more effective than CT (under semi-arid and sub-humid conditions) in enhancing wheat yield (15%), water use efficiency (18% and 13%) and soil organic carbon accumulation (0.13 t ha-1 year-1 and 0.18 t ha-1 year-1). It is also more effective for soil resilience - preventing water erosion (1.7 t ha-1 year-1 and 4.6 t ha-1 year-1 of soil loss). The present study allowed identification of 260,000 ha as priority areas for CA adoption; this represent one-third of the total cereal area in Tunisia. Appropriate evaluation of the benefits of CA on sustainable agricultural intensification would provide more arguments for effectively supporting CA adoption in Tunisia.

RevDate: 2019-09-21

Filho WL, Balogun AL, Olayide OE, et al (2019)

Assessing the impacts of climate change in cities and their adaptive capacity: Towards transformative approaches to climate change adaptation and poverty reduction in urban areas in a set of developing countries.

The Science of the total environment, 692:1175-1190.

Many cities across the world are facing many problems climate change poses to their populations, communities and infrastructure. These vary from increased exposures to floods, to discomfort due to urban heat, depending on their geographical locations and settings. However, even though some cities have a greater ability to cope with climate change challenges, many struggle to do so, particularly in cities in developing countries. In addition, there is a shortage of international studies which examine the links between climate change adaptation and cities, and which at the same time draw some successful examples of good practice, which may assist future efforts. This paper is an attempt to address this information need. The aim of this paper is to analyse the extent to which cities in a sample of developing countries are attempting to pursue climate change adaptation and the problems which hinder this process. Its goal is to showcase examples of initiatives and good practice in transformative adaptation, which may be replicable elsewhere. To this purpose, the paper describes some trends related to climate change in a set of cities in developing countries across different continents, including one of the smallest capital cities (Georgetown, Guyana) and Shanghai, one the world's most populous cities. In particular, it analyses their degree of vulnerability, how they manage to cope with climate change impacts, and the policies being implemented to aid adaptation. It also suggests the use of transformative approaches which may be adopted, in order to assist them in their efforts towards investments in low-carbon and climate-resilient infrastructure, thereby maximizing investments in urban areas and trying to address their related poverty issues. This paper addresses a gap in the international literature on the problems many cities in developing countries face, in trying to adapt to a changing climate.

RevDate: 2019-09-21

Markkula I, Turunen M, S Rasmus (2019)

A review of climate change impacts on the ecosystem services in the Saami Homeland in Finland.

The Science of the total environment, 692:1070-1085.

The aim of this work is (i) to review the recent studies on weather and climate change in Finnish Sápmi and to present the literature review findings alongside our survey on the observations made by local reindeer herders on the same phenomena, and, further, (ii) to review the impacts of climate change on the ecosystem services (ES) in Finnish Sápmi. The focus of the study is on the impacts of climate change on those habitat, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services which are interconnected with the Saami way of life as Indigenous people and thus support the continuity of their culture. In the holistic world view of Arctic Indigenous peoples, material culture and non-material culture are not separated, and there is no boundary between nature and culture. However, cultural and spiritual meanings of ecosystems, species and landscapes are rarely taken into account in scientific research on ecosystems services. Our review indicates that mostly negative impacts of climate warming on ecosystems and traditional livelihoods are to be expected in Sápmi. The most profound negative impacts will be on palsa mire and fell ecosystems, in particular snowbeds, snow patches and mountain birch forests. Consequently, changes in ecosystems may erode cultural meanings, stories, memories and traditional knowledge attached to them and affect the nature-based traditional livelihoods. In a situation where our rapidly changing climate is affecting the foundations of the nature-based cultures, the present review can provide a knowledge base for developing adaptation actions and strategies for local communities and Indigenous peoples to cope with changes caused by climate change and other drivers.

RevDate: 2019-09-20

Alurralde G, Fuentes VL, Maggioni T, et al (2019)

Role of suspension feeders in antarctic pelagic-benthic coupling: Trophic ecology and potential carbon sinks under climate change.

Marine environmental research pii:S0141-1136(19)30367-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Sea-ice and coastal glacier loss in the Western Antarctic Peninsula open new ice-free areas. They allowing primary production and providing new seabed for colonisation, both acting as a negative feedback of climate change. However, the injection of sediment-laden runoff from the melting of land-terminating glaciers may reduce this feedback. Changes in particulate matter will affect nutrition and excretion (faeces stoichiometry and properties) of suspension feeders, reshaping coastal carbon dynamics and pelagic-benthic coupling. Absorption efficiency and biodeposition of Euphausia superba and Cnemidocarpa verrucosa were quantified for different food treatments and varying sediment concentrations. Both species showed high overall absorption efficiency for free-sediment diets, but were negatively affected by sediment addition. High sediment conditions increased krill biodeposition, while it decreased in ascidians. Energy balance estimation indicated high carbon sink potential in ascidians, but it is modulated by food characteristics and negatively affected by sediment inputs in the water column.

RevDate: 2019-09-19

Walker WH, Meléndez-Fernández OH, Nelson RJ, et al (2019)

Global climate change and invariable photoperiods: A mismatch that jeopardizes animal fitness.

Ecology and evolution, 9(17):10044-10054 pii:ECE35537.

The Earth's surface temperature is rising, and precipitation patterns throughout the Earth are changing; the source of these shifts is likely anthropogenic in nature. Alterations in temperature and precipitation have obvious direct and indirect effects on both plants and animals. Notably, changes in temperature and precipitation alone can have both advantageous and detrimental consequences depending on the species. Typically, production of offspring is timed to coincide with optimal food availability; thus, individuals of many species display annual rhythms of reproductive function. Because it requires substantial time to establish or re-establish reproductive function, individuals cannot depend on the arrival of seasonal food availability to begin breeding; thus, mechanisms have evolved in many plants and animals to monitor and respond to day length in order to anticipate seasonal changes in the environment. Over evolutionary time, there has been precise fine-tuning of critical photoperiod and onset/offset of seasonal adaptations. Climate change has provoked changes in the availability of insects and plants which shifts the timing of optimal reproduction. However, adaptations to the stable photoperiod may be insufficiently plastic to allow a shift in the seasonal timing of bird and mammal breeding. Coupled with the effects of light pollution which prevents these species from determining day length, climate change presents extreme evolutionary pressure that can result in severe deleterious consequences for individual species reproduction and survival. This review describes the effects of climate change on plants and animals, defines photoperiod and the physiological events it regulates, and addresses the consequences of global climate change and a stable photoperiod.

RevDate: 2019-09-19

Tapley BD, Watkins MM, Flechtner F, et al (2019)

Contributions of GRACE to understanding climate change.

Nature climate change, 5(5):358-369.

Time-resolved satellite gravimetry has revolutionized understanding of mass transport in the Earth system. Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has enabled monitoring of the terrestrial water cycle, ice sheet and glacier mass balance, sea level change and ocean bottom pressure variations and understanding responses to changes in the global climate system. Initially a pioneering experiment of geodesy, the time-variable observations have matured into reliable mass transport products, allowing assessment and forecast of a number of important climate trends and improve service applications such as the U.S. Drought Monitor. With the successful launch of the GRACE Follow-On mission, a multi decadal record of mass variability in the Earth system is within reach.

RevDate: 2019-09-19

Tollefson J (2019)

The hard truths of climate change - by the numbers.

Nature, 573(7774):324-327.

RevDate: 2019-09-19

Moda HM, Filho WL, A Minhas (2019)

Impacts of Climate Change on Outdoor Workers and their Safety: Some Research Priorities.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(18): pii:ijerph16183458.

The literature on the potential impacts of climate change on the health of outdoor workers has received limited attention as a whole, and in sub-Saharan African countries in particular. Yet, substantial numbers of workers are experiencing the health effects of elevated temperature, in combination with changes in precipitation patterns, climate extremes and the effects of air pollution, which have a potential impact on their safety and wellbeing. With increased temperatures within urban settlements and frequent heats waves, there has been a sudden rise in the occurrence of heat-related illness leading to higher levels of mortality, as well as other adverse health impacts. This paper discusses the impacts of extreme heat exposure and health concerns among outdoor workers, and the resultant impacts on their productivity and occupational safety in tropical developing countries with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, where there is a dearth of such studies. Aside from the direct effects caused by extreme heat exposure, other indirect health hazards associated with increasing heat among this group includes exposures to hazardous chemicals and other vector-borne diseases. In addition, reduced work capacity in heat-exposed jobs will continue to rise and hinder economic and social development in such countries. There is an urgent need for further studies around the health and economic impacts of climate change in the workplace, especially in tropical developing countries, which may guide the implementation of the measures needed to address the problem.

RevDate: 2019-09-19

Huang X, Zhang T, Yi G, et al (2019)

Dynamic Changes of NDVI in the Growing Season of the Tibetan Plateau During the Past 17 Years and Its Response to Climate Change.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(18): pii:ijerph16183452.

The fragile alpine vegetation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is very sensitive to environmental changes, making TP one of the hotspots for studying the response of vegetation to climate change. Existing studies lack detailed description of the response of vegetation to different climatic factors using the method of multiple nested time series analysis and the method of grey correlation analysis. In this paper, based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of TP in the growing season calculated from the MOD09A1 data product of Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the method of multiple nested time series analysis is adopted to study the variation trends of NDVI in recent 17 years, and the lag time of NDVI to climate change is analyzed using the method of Grey Relational Analysis (GRA). Finally, the characteristics of temporal and spatial differences of NDVI to different climate factors are summarized. The results indicate that: (1) the spatial distribution of NDVI values in the growing season shows a trend of decreasing from east to west, and from north to south, with a change rate of -0.13/10° E and -0.30/10° N, respectively. (2) From 2001 to 2017, the NDVI in the TP shows a slight trend of increase, with a growth rate of 0.01/10a. (3) The lag time of NDVI to air temperature is not obvious, while the NDVI response lags behind cumulative precipitation by zero to one month, relative humidity by two months, and sunshine duration by three months. (4) The effects of different climatic factors on NDVI are significantly different with the increase of the study period.

RevDate: 2019-09-18

Cline AJ, Hamilton SL, CA Logan (2019)

Effects of multiple climate change stressors on gene expression in blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus).

Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular & integrative physiology pii:S1095-6433(19)30344-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Global climate change is predicted to increase the co-occurrence of high pCO2 and hypoxia in upwelling zones worldwide. Yet, few studies have examined the effects of these stressors on economically and ecologically important fishes. Here, we investigated short-term responses of juvenile blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus) to independent and combined high pCO2 and hypoxia at the molecular level, using changes in gene expression and metabolic enzymatic activity to investigate potential shifts in energy metabolism. Fish were experimentally exposed to conditions associated with intensified upwelling under climate change: high pCO2 (1200 μatm, pH~7.6), hypoxia (4.0 mg O2/L), and a combined high pCO2/hypoxia treatment for 12 h, 24 h or two weeks. Muscle transcriptome profiles varied significantly among the three treatments, with limited overlap among genes responsive to both the single and combined stressors. Under elevated pCO2, blue rockfish increased expression of genes encoding proteins involved in the electron transport chain and muscle contraction. Under hypoxia, blue rockfish up-regulated genes involved in oxygen and ion transport and down-regulated transcriptional machinery. Under combined high pCO2 and hypoxia, blue rockfish induced a unique set of ionoregulatory and hypoxia-responsive genes not expressed under the single stressors. Thus, high pCO2 and hypoxia exposure appears to induce a non-additive transcriptomic response that cannot be predicted from single stressor exposures alone, further highlighting the need for multiple stressor studies at the molecular level. Overall, lack of a major shift in cellular energetics indicates that blue rockfish may be relatively resistant to intensified upwelling conditions in the short term.

RevDate: 2019-09-18

Temte JL, Holzhauer JR, KP Kushner (2019)

Correlation Between Climate Change and Dysphoria in Primary Care.

WMJ : official publication of the State Medical Society of Wisconsin, 118(2):71-74.

BACKGROUND: Concern about climate change may affect mental health. We evaluated the relationship between primary care patients' attitudes toward climate change and dysphoria.

METHODS: In 2013, we surveyed 571 adult primary care patients in southern Wisconsin. Attitudes toward climate change were measured using a 46-point composite of 9 questions. Dysphoria was measured using a 13-point composite summing the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-2) and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale (GAD-2).

RESULTS: Patients frequently reported concern about climate change and 22.5% experienced dysphoria. A significant, positive correlation existed between the composite climate change score and the dysphoria score (rs=0.345; P<0.001).

CONCLUSION: Primary care patients are concerned about climate change and this concern is positively related to dysphoria. The level to which dysphoria is due to climate change should be elucidated.

RevDate: 2019-09-18

Patrick R, Armstrong F, Hancock T, et al (2019)

Climate change and health promotion in Australia: Navigating political, policy, advocacy and research challenges.

Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals, 30(3):295-298.

RevDate: 2019-09-18

Yamin F (2019)

Why I broke the law for climate change.

Nature, 573(7774):337-339.

RevDate: 2019-09-18

Li Y, Ren Y, Y Chen (2019)

China fortifies marine protection areas against climate change.

Nature, 573(7774):346.

RevDate: 2019-09-18

Liang SQ, Peng SZ, YM Chen (2019)

[Responses of productivity of typical natural secondary forests and plantations to climate change in Shaanxi Province, China].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 30(9):2892-2902.

We analyzed the changes of net primary productivity (NPP) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of Quercus spp. forest and Robinia pseudoacacia plantation under different future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100, using the process-based dynamic vegetation model-LPJ-GUESS. The results showed that compared with the benchmark period (1961-1990), NPP of Quercus spp. forest and R. pseudoacacia plantation in northern Shaanxi would decrease by 4.9%-29.5% and 22.5%-56.2% respectively, while that in Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi would increase by 13.0%-49.0% and 21.3%-62.9% respectively in the future. The NPP of Quercus spp. forest and R. pseudoacacia plantation under the RCP8.5 scenario was the highest, followed by that under the RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. Those two types of forest would be carbon sink in three subregions in the future. Quercus spp. forest would have stronger carbon sink function in nor-thern Shaanxi and Guanzhong, while R. pseudoacacia plantation would have stronger carbon sink function in Southern Shaanxi. Under different RCP scenarios, the NEP variation range of R. pseu-doacacia plantation was greater than that of Quercus spp. forest in three subregions.

RevDate: 2019-09-18

Osland MJ, LC Feher (2019)

Winter climate change and the poleward range expansion of a tropical invasive tree (Brazilian pepper - Shinus terebinthifolius).

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Winter climate change is expected to lead to the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems, where tropical species expand poleward in response to a decrease in the intensity and duration of winter temperature extremes (i.e., freeze events). In the southeastern United States, freezing temperatures control the northern range limits of many invasive non-native species. Here, we examine the influence of freezing temperatures and winter climate change on the northern range limits of an invasive non-native tree - Schinus terebenthifolius (Brazilian pepper). Since introduction in the 1800s, Brazilian pepper has invaded ecosystems throughout south and central Florida to become the state's most widespread non-native plant species. Although Brazilian pepper is sensitive to freezing temperatures, temperature controls on its northern distribution have not been adequately quantified. We used temperature and plant occurrence data to quantify the sensitivity of Brazilian pepper to freezing temperatures. Then, we examined the potential for range expansion under three alternative future climate scenarios (+2°C, +4°C, and +6°C). Our analyses identify a strong nonlinear sigmoidal relationship between minimum temperature and Brazilian pepper presence, with a discrete threshold temperature occurring near -11°C. Our future scenario analyses indicate that, in response to warming winter temperatures, Brazilian pepper is expected to expand northward and transform ecosystems in north Florida and across much of the Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic coasts of the United States. These results underscore the importance of early detection and rapid response efforts to identify and manage the northward invasion of Brazilian pepper in response to climate change. Looking more broadly, our work highlights the need to anticipate and prepare for the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by tropical invasive species.

RevDate: 2019-09-18

Anderson K, J Jewell (2019)

Debating the bedrock of climate-change mitigation scenarios.

Nature, 573(7774):348-349.

RevDate: 2019-09-18

Fu YB, Peterson GW, Horbach C, et al (2019)

Elevated mutation and selection in wild emmer wheat in response to 28 years of global warming.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1909564116 [Epub ahead of print].

Global warming has been documented to threaten wild plants with strong selection pressures, but how plant populations respond genetically to the threats remains poorly understood. We characterized the genetic responses of 10 wild emmer wheat (Triticum dicoccoides Koern.; WEW) populations in Israel, sampling them in 1980 and again in 2008, through an exome capture analysis. It was found that these WEW populations were under elevated selection, displayed reduced diversity and temporal divergence, and carried increased mutational burdens forward. However, some populations still showed the ability to acquire beneficial alleles via selection or de novo mutation for future adaptation. Grouping populations with mean annual rainfall and temperature revealed significant differences in most of the 14 genetic estimates in either sampling year or over the 28 y. The patterns of genetic response to rainfall and temperature varied and were complex. In general, temperature groups displayed more temporal differences in genetic response than rainfall groups. The highest temperature group had more deleterious single nucleotide polymorphisms (dSNPs), higher nucleotide diversity, fewer selective sweeps, lower differentiation, and lower mutational burden. The least rainfall group had more dSNPs, higher nucleotide diversity, lower differentiation and higher mutational burden. These characterized genetic responses are significant, allowing not only for better understanding of evolutionary changes in the threatened populations, but also for realistic modeling of plant population adaptability and vulnerability to global warming.

RevDate: 2019-09-18

Awazi NP, Tchamba MN, TM Avana (2019)

Climate change resiliency choices of small-scale farmers in Cameroon: determinants and policy implications.

Journal of environmental management, 250:109560 pii:S0301-4797(19)31278-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate variability and change has continued to wreak havoc on the agricultural sector, with small-scale farmers being the most hard-hit. The limited adaptive capacity of small-scale farmers faced with the impacts of climate variability and change principally explains their high level of vulnerability. It is within this framework that this study sought to examine the specific resiliency choices of small-scale farmers faced with climate variability and change in Cameroon, and the plausible policy implications. Data was collected through a survey of 300 small-scale farmer household heads as well as climate data collected from meteorological stations. Data analysis was run on Microsoft Excel 2007 and SPSS 20, employing descriptive and inferential statistics. Findings showed significant fluctuations in climate parameters in recent years. The main resiliency choices of small-scale farmers faced with climate variability and change were on-farm practices (23%), off-farm practices (19%), and agroforestry practices (28%); with 30% of the sampled farmers taking to the no resiliency option. A statistically significant (p < 0.01; p < 0.05; and p < 0.10) causal and non-causal relationship was found to exist between independent variables (household size, age of household head, number of farms, farm size, household income, farm experience, gender, experience of extreme weather events, access to weather information, access to extension services, access to credit, distance to market, access to land, and membership in farming group) and small-scale farmers' practice of different resiliency options faced with climate variability and change. This shows that small-scale farmers' practice of different resiliency options faced with climate variability and change is determined by past experience of extreme weather/climate events as well as socio-economic and institutional factors. On the basis of these findings, it is recommended that policy makers factor in these determinants when taking actions geared towards enhancing small-scale farmers' resilience to climate variability and change.

RevDate: 2019-09-18

Galappaththi EK, Ford JD, Bennett EM, et al (2019)

Climate change and community fisheries in the arctic: A case study from Pangnirtung, Canada.

Journal of environmental management, 250:109534 pii:S0301-4797(19)31252-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Coastal fishery systems in the Arctic are undergoing rapid change. This paper examines the ways in which Inuit fishers experience and respond to such change, using a case study from Pangnirtung, Canada. The work is based on over two years of fieldwork, during which semi-structured interviews (n = 62), focus group discussions (n = 6, 31 participants) and key informant interviews (n = 25) were conducted. The changes that most Inuit fishers experience are: changes in sea-ice conditions, Inuit people themselves, the landscape and the seascape, fish-related changes, and changes in weather conditions, markets and fish selling prices. Inuit fishers respond to change individually as well as collectively. Fishers' responses were examined using the characteristics of a resilience-based conceptual framework focusing on place, human agency, collective action and collaboration, institutions, indigenous and local knowledge systems, and learning. Based on results, this paper identified three community-level adaptive strategies, which are diversification, technology use and fisheries governance that employs a co-management approach. Further, this work recognised four place-specific attributes that can shape community adaptations, which are Inuit worldviews, Inuit-owned institutions, a culture of sharing and collaborating, and indigenous and local knowledge systems. An examination of the ways in which Inuit fishers experience and respond to change is essential to better understand adaptations to climate change. This study delivers new insights to communities, scientists, and policymakers to work together to foster community adaptation.

RevDate: 2019-09-16

Bosch D (2019)

Death, Taxes, and Global Warming.

Annals of internal medicine, 171(6):438.

RevDate: 2019-09-16

Bishop J (2019)

Climate change.

Journal of paediatrics and child health, 55(9):1151.

RevDate: 2019-09-14

Luqman M, Soytas U, Peng S, et al (2019)

Sharing the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation via Shapley value.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-06409-y [Epub ahead of print].

This paper examines the free rider problem that exists in the joint effort to mitigate climate change. There is a need to develop a model that is stable and that provides evidence of an objective burden sharing rule so that the environmental agreement is more acceptable. This study approaches this problem via a cooperative game at the global level to make International Environmental Agreements (IEA) more stable. For this purpose, we apply the Shapley value transfer mechanism and find that under the commitment scenario, some regions attain the maximum benefits by joining the coalition. Shapley value transfer improves the coalition size and increases the global benefits at a certain level of abatement under perfect cooperation. Imperfect cooperation leads to lower levels of global benefits. Our findings offer new implications on how to improve the international cooperation for climate change. Commitments by major regions could activate the IEA (e.g., Paris agreement) efficiently. For the maximum global response to climate change, the national governments must reformulate and implement policies to meet their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs). The results of this study also help the national governments to set their implementation priorities to implement the Paris Accord at global level.

RevDate: 2019-09-13

Yezli S, Khan A, A Bouchama (2019)

Summer Hajj pilgrimage in the era of global warming: a call for vigilance and better understanding of the risks.

Journal of travel medicine pii:5568291 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-09-13

Rivara FP, SD Fihn (2019)

Climate Change and Health: JAMA Network Open Call for Papers.

JAMA network open, 2(9):e1912502 pii:2749773.

RevDate: 2019-09-13

Hagedorn F, Gavazov K, JM Alexander (2019)

Above- and belowground linkages shape responses of mountain vegetation to climate change.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 365(6458):1119-1123.

Upward shifts of mountain vegetation lag behind rates of climate warming, partly related to interconnected changes belowground. Here, we unravel above- and belowground linkages by drawing insights from short-term experimental manipulations and elevation gradient studies. Soils will likely gain carbon in early successional ecosystems, while losing carbon as forest expands upward, and the slow, high-elevation soil development will constrain warming-induced vegetation shifts. Current approaches fail to predict the pace of these changes and how much they will be modified by interactions among plants and soil biota. Integrating mountain soils and their biota into monitoring programs, combined with innovative comparative and experimental approaches, will be crucial to overcome the paucity of belowground data and to better understand mountain ecosystem dynamics and their feedbacks to climate.

RevDate: 2019-09-12

Zhang Y, Wang Q, Wang Z, et al (2019)

Impact of human activities and climate change on the grassland dynamics under different regime policies in the Mongolian Plateau.

The Science of the total environment, 698:134304 pii:S0048-9697(19)34293-7 [Epub ahead of print].

To mitigate the grassland degradation in the Mongolian Plateau (MP), both China and Mongolia governments have carried out a series of new policies and ecological projects. However, the effect of such restoration measures on the productivity of grassland in the MP under different political systems remains unclear. Here we study the effects of land use and land cover change, human activities and climate change on the net primary productivity (NPP) of grassland in Mongolia (MG) and Inner Mongolia (IM) from 2001 to 2014. Results showed that the area of grassland increased in both MG and IM, accounted for 4.45 × 104 and 10.31 × 104 km2, respectively. The extended grassland contributed 4.34 × 108 Gg C (Gg = 109 g) to the total NPP, while the loss of grassland led to a decrease of 0.19 × 108 Gg C. The total NPP of grasslands in 2014 increased about 17.88% and 30.49% respectively in MG and IM since 2001. Specifically, IM exhibited a higher increase in land converted NPP than MG. The area of grassland restoration in IM and MG accounted for 90.21% and 81.45%, respectively, indicating that the grassland of the MP was restored. Although human activity was the dominant factor on grassland degradation, which was accounted for 9.79% and 18.55% in IM and MG, it has a positive effect on most of the grassland NPP in the MP. Overall, policy measures and ecological projects in IM brought a more positive effect compared with that in MG.

RevDate: 2019-09-12

Azadi Y, Yazdanpanah M, H Mahmoudi (2019)

Understanding smallholder farmers' adaptation behaviors through climate change beliefs, risk perception, trust, and psychological distance: Evidence from wheat growers in Iran.

Journal of environmental management, 250:109456 pii:S0301-4797(19)31174-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change (CC) poses severe threats to the agriculture sector in developing countries. ‏Increasing empirical evidence has confirmed that adaptation strategies to CC at the farm level can significantly reduce the negative impacts of CC and minimize vulnerability. Consequently, understanding adaptation to CC has become a major concern for farmers to facilitate adaptation actions and assist them in improving their adaptive capacity. In this context, this study investigated the most prominent psychological drivers of, and impediments to, adaptation responses. To this end, 350 farmers from Kermanshah district in western of Iran were selected as our sample through a multi-stage, stratified, random sampling method. Structural equation modeling found a complex relationship between overall CC belief, risk perception, psychological distance, trust and risk salience, and farmers' adaptation behaviors. Climate risk perception, trust, and psychological distance were much more effective in driving farmers' adaptation behaviors. The findings yield recommendations for public policy and risk communication that could encourage adaptation behaviors among Iranian farmers.

RevDate: 2019-09-12

Colombo SM, Rodgers TFM, Diamond ML, et al (2019)

Projected declines in global DHA availability for human consumption as a result of global warming.

Ambio pii:10.1007/s13280-019-01234-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) is an essential, omega-3, long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid that is a key component of cell membranes and plays a vital role in vertebrate brain function. The capacity to synthesize DHA is limited in mammals, despite its critical role in neurological development and health. For humans, DHA is most commonly obtained by eating fish. Global warming is predicted to reduce the de novo synthesis of DHA by algae, at the base of aquatic food chains, and which is expected to reduce DHA transferred to fish. We estimated the global quantity of DHA (total and per capita) currently available from commercial (wild caught and aquaculture) and recreational fisheries. The potential decrease in the amount of DHA available from fish for human consumption was modeled using the predicted effect of established global warming scenarios on algal DHA production and ensuing transfer to fish. We conclude that an increase in water temperature could result, depending on the climate scenario and location, in a ~ 10 to 58% loss of globally available DHA by 2100, potentially limiting the availability of this critical nutrient to humans. Inland waters show the greatest potential for climate-warming-induced decreases in DHA available for human consumption. The projected decrease in DHA availability as a result of global warming would disproportionately affect vulnerable populations (e.g., fetuses, infants), especially in inland Africa (due to low reported per capita DHA availability). We estimated, in the worst-case scenario, that DHA availability could decline to levels where 96% of the global population may not have access to sufficient DHA.

RevDate: 2019-09-11

Atsbha T, Belayneh Desta A, T Zewdu (2019)

Carbon sequestration potential of natural vegetation under grazing influence in Southern Tigray, Ethiopia: implication for climate change mitigation.

Heliyon, 5(8):e02329 pii:e02329.

The management influence on carbon sequestration potential of different land use types are least known at the national level. This research was conducted to assess the impact of area exclusion on carbon sequestration potential in the two land use systems: protected natural vegetation (PNV) and communal grazing land (CGL). Data of vegetation, litter, and soils were collected using systematic sampling methods, laying 19 transects and 62 quadrats each with 20 m × 20 m for trees, 5 m × 5 m sub-quadrats for shrubs, and 1 m × 1m sub-quadrats for herbs/grasses, litter biomass, and soil sample. Aboveground biomass carbon (AGC), belowground biomass carbon (BGC), soil organic carbon (SOC), and total carbon stock (TC) were estimated using allometric equations. The mean difference level of carbon stocks (P < 0.05) of the two land use systems was tested through unequal variance t-test using R-software. The mean above ground and below ground carbon stock of PNV, 21.05 ton/ha, 10.39 ton/ha, was higher than CGL, 15.31 ton/ha, 7.65 ton/ha, respectively. The average values of SOC was 16.60 ton/ha from PNV and 13.76 ton/ha from CGL. The mean value of SOC was higher at the PNV than CGL and significantly different (P < 0.05). The total carbon stock estimate of PNV and CGL were 50.74 ton/ha and 37.11 ton/ha, respectively, which is significantly different (P < 0.05). We concluded that, establishment of PNV as the best practice of restoration programs through exclusion of livestock from free grazing and human interference provides cost effective mechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity conservation, livelihood support, and climate change mitigation.

RevDate: 2019-09-10

Li J, Fan G, Y He (2019)

Predicting the current and future distribution of three Coptis herbs in China under climate change conditions, using the MaxEnt model and chemical analysis.

The Science of the total environment, 698:134141 pii:S0048-9697(19)34118-X [Epub ahead of print].

The rhizomes of Coptis chinensis Franch., Coptis deltoidea C. Y. Cheng et Hsiao and Coptis teeta Wall, are sources of renowned traditional Chinese medicines. Recently, human activities and climate change has caused degeneration of the natural habitats of these pharmacological plants. Analyzing the impact of climate change on the possible distribution of Coptis herbs is essential for their future conservation and domestication. The purpose of this study was to predict the potential distribution of these valuable plants and identify the potential effects of climate change on three Coptis species, using of species distribution modeling (SDM). In this study, we first predict the distribution size variations of the three plant species, under present and future conditions. Secondly, we carried out field sampling of these three species and analyzed the chemical composition by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Results show that the predicted distributions of all three Coptis herbs were not limit to the reported regions, but also cover other potential areas. Among the environmental variables, annual precipitation range (Bio2) induced the largest impact on SDMs for C. chinensis (72.2%) and C. deltoidea (37.9%), while C. teeta was more significantly affected by isothermally (Bio3, 39.2%). When comparing the possible future distribution to the present distribution of these species, a decreasing tendency was observed in the highly suitable areas of C. chinensis and the generally suitable areas of C. teeta, indicating that the environmental changes would affect the distribution of these two species. In addition, the average alkaloid content was found to be the highest in highly suitable areas, while it was decreased in moderately and generally suitable areas, indicating that alkaloid content may be related to environmental factors. In summary, these findings improve our understanding of the ecological impact of climate on the distribution of three Coptis species.

RevDate: 2019-09-10

Magkos F, Tetens I, Bügel SG, et al (2019)

A Perspective on the Transition to Plant-Based Diets: a Diet Change May Attenuate Climate Change, but Can It Also Attenuate Obesity and Chronic Disease Risk?.

Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.) pii:5559530 [Epub ahead of print].

Current dietary guidelines advocate more plant-based, sustainable diets on the basis of scientific evidence about diet-health relations but also to address environmental concerns. Here, we critically review the effects of plant-based diets on the prevalence of obesity and other health outcomes. Plant-based diets per se have limited efficacy for the prevention and treatment of obesity, but most have beneficial effects in terms of chronic disease risk. However, with the considerable possibilities of translating plant-based diets into various types of dietary patterns, our analysis suggests that potential adverse health effects should also be considered in relation to vulnerable groups of the population. A transition to more plant-based diets may exert beneficial effects on the environment, but is unlikely to affect obesity, and may also have adverse health effects if this change is made without careful consideration of the nutritional needs of the individual relative to the adequacy of the dietary intake.

RevDate: 2019-09-10

Cazelles K, Bartley T, Guzzo MM, et al (2019)

Homogenization of freshwater lakes: recent compositional shifts in fish communities are explained by gamefish movement and not climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Globally, lake fish communities are being subjected to a range of scale-dependent anthropogenic pressures, from climate change to eutrophication, and from over-exploitation to species introductions. As a consequence, the composition of these communities is being reshuffled, in most cases leading to a surge in taxonomic similarity at the regional scale termed homogenization. The drivers of homogenization remain unclear, which may be a reflection of interactions between various environmental changes. In this study, we investigate two potential drivers of the recent changes in the composition of freshwater fish communities: recreational fishing and climate change. Our results, derived from 524 lakes of Ontario, Canada sampled in two periods (1965-1982 and 2008-2012), demonstrate that the main contributors to homogenization are the dispersal of gamefish species, most of which are large predators. Alternative explanations relating to lake habitat (e.g., area, phosphorus) or variations in climate have limited explanatory power. Our analysis suggests that human-assisted migration is the primary driver of the observed compositional shifts, homogenizing freshwater fish community among Ontario lakes and generating food webs dominated by gamefish species.

RevDate: 2019-09-10

Saupe EE, Myers CE, Townsend Peterson A, et al (2019)

Spatio-temporal climate change contributes to latitudinal diversity gradients.

Nature ecology & evolution pii:10.1038/s41559-019-0962-7 [Epub ahead of print].

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), where the number of species increases from the poles to the Equator, ranks among the broadest and most notable biodiversity patterns on Earth. The pattern of species-rich tropics relative to species-poor temperate areas has been recognized for well over a century, but the generative mechanisms are still debated vigorously. We use simulations to test whether spatio-temporal climatic changes could generate large-scale patterns of biodiversity as a function of only three biological processes-speciation, extinction and dispersal-omitting adaptive niche evolution, diversity-dependence and coexistence limits. In our simulations, speciation resulted from range disjunctions, whereas extinction occurred when no suitable sites were accessible to species. Simulations generated clear LDGs that closely match empirical LDGs for three major vertebrate groups. Higher tropical diversity primarily resulted from higher low-latitude speciation, driven by spatio-temporal variation in precipitation rather than in temperature. This suggests that spatio-temporal changes in low-latitude precipitation prompted geographical range disjunctions over Earth's history, leading to high rates of allopatric speciation that contributed to LDGs. Overall, we show that major global biodiversity patterns can derive from interactions of species' niches (fixed a priori in our simulations) with dynamic climate across complex, existing landscapes, without invoking biotic interactions or niche-related adaptations.

RevDate: 2019-09-10

Riddell EA, Roback EY, Wells CE, et al (2019)

Thermal cues drive plasticity of desiccation resistance in montane salamanders with implications for climate change.

Nature communications, 10(1):4091 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-11990-4.

Organisms rely upon external cues to avoid detrimental conditions during environmental change. Rapid water loss, or desiccation, is a universal threat for terrestrial plants and animals, especially under climate change, but the cues that facilitate plastic responses to avoid desiccation are unclear. We integrate acclimation experiments with gene expression analyses to identify the cues that regulate resistance to water loss at the physiological and regulatory level in a montane salamander (Plethodon metcalfi). Here we show that temperature is an important cue for developing a desiccation-resistant phenotype and might act as a reliable cue for organisms across the globe. Gene expression analyses consistently identify regulation of stem cell differentiation and embryonic development of vasculature. The temperature-sensitive blood vessel development suggests that salamanders regulate water loss through the regression and regeneration of capillary beds in the skin, indicating that tissue regeneration may be used for physiological purposes beyond replacing lost limbs.

RevDate: 2019-09-09

Ciceu A, Popa I, Leca S, et al (2019)

Climate change effects on tree growth from Romanian forest monitoring Level II plots.

The Science of the total environment, 698:134129 pii:S0048-9697(19)34106-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Forest health status is negatively influenced by climate change, air pollution and other disturbances. Extreme droughts reduce stand productivity, increase vulnerability to pests, and can even provoke mortality. Growth dynamics at tree and forest stand levels are considered the main indicators of stability and productivity in forest ecosystem structures. The main climate drivers for tree growth were identified using basal area increment (BAI) as a synthetic indicator. BAI chronologies were obtained from increment cores for 1960-2012 period. Six species were analysed in an attempt to identify their growth limiting factors. For the most important oak species in Romania, resilience components were computed in order to analyse their response to drought events. Moreover, growth dynamics were analysed for two species in mixed and monoculture forests. The results suggest that - in comparison to Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica, the sensitivity of Quercus spp. is much higher (0.3-0.47). Oakspecies situated in the most drought-affected areas are sensitive to rainfall values from the previous autumn, current spring, and early summer, with April monthly values having the most significant effect on BAI increment (r = 0.47*) The most sensitive species to drought is Q. cerris and Q. frainetto. Their BAI reduction during drought is >50% compared with the BAI values before the drought period. The recovery capacity of tree growth following drought events is lower for Q. robur and Q. petraea and higher for Q. cerris and Q. frainetto. The mixed forest stands have not showed a constant higher resistance to drought.


RJR Experience and Expertise


Robbins holds BS, MS, and PhD degrees in the life sciences. He served as a tenured faculty member in the Zoology and Biological Science departments at Michigan State University. He is currently exploring the intersection between genomics, microbial ecology, and biodiversity — an area that promises to transform our understanding of the biosphere.


Robbins has extensive experience in college-level education: At MSU he taught introductory biology, genetics, and population genetics. At JHU, he was an instructor for a special course on biological database design. At FHCRC, he team-taught a graduate-level course on the history of genetics. At Bellevue College he taught medical informatics.


Robbins has been involved in science administration at both the federal and the institutional levels. At NSF he was a program officer for database activities in the life sciences, at DOE he was a program officer for information infrastructure in the human genome project. At the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, he served as a vice president for fifteen years.


Robbins has been involved with information technology since writing his first Fortran program as a college student. At NSF he was the first program officer for database activities in the life sciences. At JHU he held an appointment in the CS department and served as director of the informatics core for the Genome Data Base. At the FHCRC he was VP for Information Technology.


While still at Michigan State, Robbins started his first publishing venture, founding a small company that addressed the short-run publishing needs of instructors in very large undergraduate classes. For more than 20 years, Robbins has been operating The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project, a web site dedicated to the digital publishing of critical works in science, especially classical genetics.


Robbins is well-known for his speaking abilities and is often called upon to provide keynote or plenary addresses at international meetings. For example, in July, 2012, he gave a well-received keynote address at the Global Biodiversity Informatics Congress, sponsored by GBIF and held in Copenhagen. The slides from that talk can be seen HERE.


Robbins is a skilled meeting facilitator. He prefers a participatory approach, with part of the meeting involving dynamic breakout groups, created by the participants in real time: (1) individuals propose breakout groups; (2) everyone signs up for one (or more) groups; (3) the groups with the most interested parties then meet, with reports from each group presented and discussed in a subsequent plenary session.


Robbins has been engaged with photography and design since the 1960s, when he worked for a professional photography laboratory. He now prefers digital photography and tools for their precision and reproducibility. He designed his first web site more than 20 years ago and he personally designed and implemented this web site. He engages in graphic design as a hobby.

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E-mail: RJR8222@gmail.com

Collection of publications by R J Robbins

Reprints and preprints of publications, slide presentations, instructional materials, and data compilations written or prepared by Robert Robbins. Most papers deal with computational biology, genome informatics, using information technology to support biomedical research, and related matters.

Research Gate page for R J Robbins

ResearchGate is a social networking site for scientists and researchers to share papers, ask and answer questions, and find collaborators. According to a study by Nature and an article in Times Higher Education , it is the largest academic social network in terms of active users.

Curriculum Vitae for R J Robbins

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Curriculum Vitae for R J Robbins

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