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26 Jun 2019 at 01:35
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Bibliography on: Climate Change


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RJR: Recommended Bibliography 26 Jun 2019 at 01:35 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2019-06-23

Carvalho SB, Torres J, Tarroso P, et al (2019)

Genes on the edge: a framework to detect genetic diversity imperiled by climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Ongoing global warming is disrupting several ecological and evolutionary processes, spanning different levels of biological organization. Species are expected to shift their ranges as a response to climate change, with relevant implications to peripheral populations at the trailing and leading edges. Several studies have analyzed the exposure of species to climate change but few have explored exposure at the intra-specific level. We introduce a framework to forecast exposure to climate change at the intra-specific level. We build on existing methods by combining correlative species distribution models, a model of species range dynamics and a model of phylogeographic interpolation. We demonstrate the framework by applying it to 20 Iberian amphibian and reptile species. Our aims were: 1) Identify which species and intra-specific lineages will be most exposed to future climate change; 2) test if nucleotide diversity at the edges of species ranges are significant higher or lower than on the overall range; 3) analyze if areas of higher species gain, loss and turnover coincide with those predicted for lineages richness and nucleotide diversity. We found that about 80% of the studied species are predicted to contract their range. Within each species, some lineages were predicted to contract their range, while others were predicted to maintain or expand it. Therefore, estimating the impacts of climate change at the species level only can underestimate losses at the intra-specific level. Some species had significant high amount of nucleotide at the trailing or leading edge, or both, but we did not find a consistent pattern across species. Spatial patterns of species richness, gain, loss and turnover, were fairly concurrent with lineages richness and nucleotide diversity. Our results support the need for increased attention to intra-specific diversity regarding monitoring and conservation strategies under climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-06-22

Khafaie MA, Sayyah M, F Rahim (2019)

Extreme pollution, climate change, and depression.

RevDate: 2019-06-22

Lewandowsky S, Cook J, Fay N, et al (2019)

Science by social media: Attitudes towards climate change are mediated by perceived social consensus.

Memory & cognition pii:10.3758/s13421-019-00948-y [Epub ahead of print].

Internet blogs have become an important platform for the discussion of many scientific issues, including climate change. Blogs, and in particular the comment sections of blogs, also play a major role in the dissemination of contrarian positions that question mainstream climate science. The effect of this content on people's attitudes is not fully understood. In particular, it is unknown how the interaction between the content of blog posts and blog comments affects readers' attitudes. We report an experiment that orthogonally varied those two variables using blog posts and comments that either did, or did not, support the scientific consensus on climate change. We find that beliefs are partially shaped by readers' perception of how widely an opinion expressed in a blog post appears to be shared by other readers. The perceived social consensus among readers, in turn, is determined by whether blog comments endorse or reject the contents of a post. When comments reject the content, perceived reader consensus is lower than when comments endorse the content. The results underscore the importance of perceived social consensus on opinion formation.

RevDate: 2019-06-22

Zhu W, Yao N, Guo Q, et al (2019)

Public risk perception and willingness to mitigate climate change: city smog as an example.

Environmental geochemistry and health pii:10.1007/s10653-019-00355-x [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change harms people's health and ecosystems. Encouraging the public to adopt behaviors that help to combat climate change can, at the same time, contribute to efforts to control and solve related serious environmental problems. This study aims to ascertain the way in which the public perceives risks related to climate change and adopts behaviors to respond to the issue. Using city smog as an example, this study proposes a conceptual model that integrates the theory of planned behavior (TPB), smog knowledge and risk perception. It aims to elucidate determinants of smog-reduction behavior. Data were obtained through questionnaire surveys. The results confirm the relationships among the core variables of the TPB and risk perception. Firstly, they confirm that TPB is an effective model for predicting responses to city smog, and secondly, they show that risk perception is significantly positive in predicting attitude and behavioral intention. In addition, our analysis confirms that knowledge about smog is a positive antecedent variable in risk perception, attitude, and perceived behavioral control. The paper contributes to the extension of the TPB model and to the enrichment of its application in the context of city smog. It also has practical implications both for people experiencing city smog, and for authorities such as local governments and environmental organizations. Governments and organizations need to make efforts to spread information concerning the harmful effects of city smog, because in doing so they can strengthen people's intention to participate in smog-reduction behavior.

RevDate: 2019-06-21

Lienhardt T, Black K, Saget S, et al (2019)

Just the tonic! Legume biorefining for alcohol has the potential to reduce Europe's protein deficit and mitigate climate change.

Environment international, 130:104870 pii:S0160-4120(19)30877-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Industrialised agriculture is heavily reliant upon synthetic nitrogen fertilisers and imported protein feeds, posing environmental and food security challenges. Increasing the cultivation of leguminous crops that biologically fix nitrogen and provide high protein feed and food could help to address these challenges. We report on the innovative use of an important leguminous crop, pea (Pisum sativum L.), as a source of starch for alcohol (gin) production, yielding protein-rich animal feed as a co-product. We undertook life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the environmental footprint of 1 L of packaged gin produced from either 1.43 kg of wheat grain or 2.42 kg of peas via fermentation and distillation into neutral spirit. Allocated environmental footprints for pea-gin were smaller than for wheat-gin across 12 of 14 environmental impact categories considered. Global warming, resource depletion, human toxicity, acidification and terrestrial eutrophication footprints were, respectively, 12%, 15%, 15%, 48% and 68% smaller, but direct land occupation was 112% greater, for pea-gin versus wheat-gin. Expansion of LCA boundaries indicated that co-products arising from the production of 1 L of wheat- or pea-gin could substitute up to 0.33 or 0.66 kg soybean animal feed, respectively, mitigating considerable greenhouse gas emissions associated with land clearing, cultivation, processing and transport of such feed. For pea-gin, this mitigation effect exceeds emissions from gin production and packaging, so that each L of bottled pea gin avoids 2.2 kg CO2 eq. There is great potential to scale the use of legume starches in production of alcoholic beverages and biofuels, reducing dependence on Latin American soybean associated with deforestation and offering considerable global mitigation potential in terms of climate change and nutrient leakage - estimated at circa 439 Tg CO2 eq. and 8.45 Tg N eq. annually.

RevDate: 2019-06-21

Montero N, Tomillo PS, Saba VS, et al (2019)

Effects of local climate on loggerhead hatchling production in Brazil: Implications from climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):8861 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-45366-x.

Sea turtle eggs are heavily influenced by the environment in which they incubate, including effects on hatching success and hatchling viability (hatchling production). It is crucial to understand how the hatchling production of sea turtles is influenced by local climate and how potential changes in climate may impact future hatchling production. Generalized Additive Models were used to determine the relationship of six climatic variables at different temporal scales on loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) hatchling production at seventeen nesting beaches in Bahia, Espirito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Using extreme and conservative climate change scenarios throughout the 21st century, potential impacts on future hatching success (the number of hatched eggs in a nest) were predicted using the climatic variable(s) that best described hatchling production at each nesting beach. Air temperature and precipitation were found to be the main drivers of hatchling production throughout Brazil. CMIP5 climate projections are for a warming of air temperature at all sites throughout the 21st century, while projections for precipitation vary regionally. The more tropical nesting beaches in Brazil, such as those in Bahia, are projected to experience declines in hatchling production, while the more temperate nesting beaches, such as those in Rio de Janeiro, are projected to experience increases in hatchling production by the end of the 21st century.

RevDate: 2019-06-21

Zhang H, Huo S, Yeager KM, et al (2019)

Apparent relationships between anthropogenic factors and climate change indicators and POPs deposition in a lacustrine system.

Journal of environmental sciences (China), 83:174-182.

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are expected to impact the environmental behaviors and fates of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), however, quantitative studies on these combined factors are scarce. In this study, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDTs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were used as examples to identify how and when those factors may be related to the deposition of POPs in the sediment of Lake Chaohu, China, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Three historical trends of DDT, PAH, and PCB deposition were delineated in a dated sediment core encompassing ~100 years of historical record: a steady state or gradually increasing stage, a rapidly increasing stage, and a declining stage. The GAM results showed that aquatic total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and regional GDP (anthropogenic factors) were dominant contributors to POP accumulation rates in the lake sediment. The fitted relationships between air temperature and sedimentary DDT and PAH concentrations were linear and negative, while a positive linear relationship was found for PCBs, suggesting that Lake Chaohu may have become a net source for DDTs and PAHs, and a sink for PCBs, under a progressively warming climate.

RevDate: 2019-06-20

Augustynczik ALD, Yousefpour R, M Hanewinkel (2019)

Climate change and the provision of biodiversity in public temperate forests - A mechanism design approach for the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies.

Journal of environmental management, 246:706-716 pii:S0301-4797(19)30715-7 [Epub ahead of print].

The provision of forest biodiversity remains a major challenge in the management of forest resources. Biodiversity is mostly considered a public good and the fact that societal benefits from biodiversity are private information, hinders its supply at adequate levels. Here we investigate how the government, as a forest owner, may increase the biodiversity supply in publicly-owned forests. We employ a mechanism design approach to find the biodiversity provision choices, which take into account agents' strategic behavior and values towards biodiversity. We applied our framework to a forest landscape in Southwestern Germany, using forest birds as biodiversity indicators and evaluating the impacts of climate change on forest dynamics and on the costs of biodiversity provision. Our results show that climate change has important implications to the opportunity cost of biodiversity and the provision levels (ranging from 10 to 12.5% increase of the bird indicator abundance). In general, biodiversity valuations needed to surpass the opportunity cost by more than 18% to cope with the private information held by the agents. Moreover, higher costs under more intense climate change (e.g. Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) reduced the attainable bird abundance increase from 12.5 to 10%. We conclude that mechanism design may provide key information for planning conservation policies and identify conditions for a successful implementation of biodiversity-oriented forest management.

RevDate: 2019-06-20

Adeloye AJ, QV Dau (2019)

Hedging as an adaptive measure for climate change induced water shortage at the Pong reservoir in the Indus Basin Beas River, India.

The Science of the total environment, 687:554-566 pii:S0048-9697(19)32575-6 [Epub ahead of print].

This study investigated the adaptive capacity of static and dynamic hedging operating policies to shore up the performance, i.e. reliability and vulnerability, in irrigation water supply of Pong reservoir in India, during climate change. The policies were developed using genetic algorithm optimisation and used to force reservoir simulations for different climate change perturbed inflow series, whence derive the performance. For static hedging, the hedging fraction remains constant throughout the year while for dynamic hedging, this fraction varies monthly or seasonally. Results showed that static hedging was effective at tempering the systems vulnerability from its high of ≥60% to lower than 25%, while maintaining an acceptable volume-based reliability. Further simulations with dynamic hedging provided only modest improvements in these two indices. The significance of this study is its demonstration of the effectiveness of hedging as a climate change adaptation measure by limiting water shortage impacts. It also demonstrates that simple static hedging can match more complex dynamic hedging policies.

RevDate: 2019-06-20

Kosaka T, Nakajima Y, Ishii A, et al (2019)

Correction: Capacity for survival in global warming: Adaptation of mesophiles to the temperature upper limit.

PloS one, 14(6):e0218985 pii:PONE-D-19-16944.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215614.].

RevDate: 2019-06-20

Leopold CR, SC Hess (2019)

Facilitating adaptation to climate change while restoring a montane plant community.

PloS one, 14(6):e0218516 pii:PONE-D-18-30783.

Montane plant communities throughout the world have responded to changes in temperature regimes by shifting ranges upward in elevation, and made downslope movements to track shifts in climatic water balance. Organisms that cannot disperse or adapt biologically to projected climate scenarios in situ may decrease in distributional range and abundance over time. Restoration strategies will need to incorporate the habitat suitability of future predicted conditions to ensure long-term persistence. We propagated seedlings of three native Hawaiian montane plant species from high- (~2,500 m asl) and low-elevation (~1,900 m asl) sources, planted them in 8 common plots along a 500 m elevation gradient, and monitored microclimate at each plot for 20 weeks. We explored how temperature and precipitation influenced survival and growth differently among high- and low-elevation origin seedlings. Significantly more seedlings of only one species, Dodonaea viscosa, from high-elevation origin (75.2%) survived than seedlings from low-elevation origin (58.7%) across the entire elevation gradient. Origin also influenced survival in generalized linear mixed models that controlled for temperature, precipitation, and elevation in D. viscosa and Chenopodium oahuense. Survival increased with elevation and soil moisture for Sophora chrysophylla, while it decreased for the other two species. Responses to microclimate varied between the three montane plant species; there were no common patterns of growth or survival. Although limited in temporal scope, our experiment represents one of the few attempts to examine local adaptation to prospective climate scenarios and addresses challenges to restoration efforts within species' current ranges.

RevDate: 2019-06-20

Abu Qdais H, Wuensh C, Dornack C, et al (2019)

The role of solid waste composting in mitigating climate change in Jordan.

Waste management & research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA [Epub ahead of print].

Solid waste composting has never been practised on a full scale in Jordan. However, the National Solid Waste Management Strategy recommended five major composting facilities to be put into operation starting from 2025. According to the Ministry of Environment, the waste sector is contributing to 10.6% of the total greenhouse gas emissions of the country. The main objective of this study was to assess the potential of solid waste composting in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in Jordan. Applying the upstream-operating-downstream account framework and developing a model that estimates the greenhouse gas emissions, it was possible to estimate the emissions associated with composting of source-segregated bio-waste, which was compared with three other scenarios, including business as usual (dumping and landfilling), sanitary landfilling, and anaerobic digestion. The assessment revealed that composting and anaerobic digestion of the total generated source-segregated bio-waste (Scenarios 3 and 4) have the least net greenhouse gas emissions with 1.1 million Mg CO2-eq y-1, while engineered sanitary landfilling and dumping have net emissions of 2.6 and 3.75 million Mg CO2-eq y-1, respectively. The findings of this research are paving the way to make informed and responsible decisions in the Jordanian solid waste sector to adopt sustainable and integrated management options.

RevDate: 2019-06-20

Senapati N, Brown HE, MA Semenov (2019)

Raising genetic yield potential in high productive countries: Designing wheat ideotypes under climate change.

Agricultural and forest meteorology, 271:33-45.

Designing crop ideotype is an important step to raise genetic yield potential in a target environment. In the present study, we designed wheat ideotypes based on the state-of-the-art knowledge in crop physiology to increase genetic yield potential for the 2050-climate, as projected by the HadGEM2 global climate model for the RCP8.5 emission scenario, in two high-wheat-productive countries, viz. the United Kingdom (UK) and New Zealand (NZ). Wheat ideotypes were optimized to maximize yield potential for both water-limited (IW2050) and potential (IP2050) conditions by using Sirius model and exploring the full range of cultivar parameters. On average, a 43-51% greater yield potential over the present winter wheat cv. Claire was achieved for IW2050 in the UK and NZ, whereas a 51-62% increase was obtained for IP2050 . Yield benefits due to the potential condition over water-limitation were small in the UK, but 13% in NZ. The yield potentials of wheat were 16% (2.6 t ha-1) and 31% (5 t ha-1) greater in NZ than in the UK under 2050-climate in water-limited and potential conditions respectively. Modelling predicts the possibility of substantial increase in genetic yield potential of winter wheat under climate change in high productive countries. Wheat ideotypes optimized for future climate could provide plant scientists and breeders with a road map for selection of the target traits and their optimal combinations for wheat improvement and genetic adaptation to raise the yield potential.

RevDate: 2019-06-20

Van Houtven G, Phelan J, Clark C, et al (2019)

Nitrogen deposition and climate change effects on tree species composition and ecosystem services for a forest cohort.

Ecological monographs, 89(2):e01345.

The composition of forests in the northeastern United States and the ecosystem services they provide to future generations will depend on several factors. In this paper, we isolate the effects of two environmental drivers, nitrogen (N) deposition and climate (temperature and precipitation) change, through an analysis of a single cohort of 24 dominant tree species. We assembled a tree database using data from U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis monitoring plots. Applying observed species-specific growth and survival responses, we simulated how forest stands in a 19-state study area would change from 2005 to 2100 under 12 different future N deposition-climate scenarios. We then estimated implications for three selected forest ecosystem services: merchantable timber, aboveground carbon sequestration, and tree diversity. Total tree biomass (for 24 species combined) was positively associated with both increased N deposition and temperatures; however, due to differences in the direction and magnitude of species-specific responses, forest composition varied across scenarios. For example, red maple (Acer rubrum) trees gained biomass under scenarios with more N deposition and more climate change, whereas biomass of yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis) and red pine (Pinus resinosa) was negatively affected. Projections for ecosystem services also varied across scenarios. Carbon sequestration, which is positively associated with biomass accumulation, increased with N deposition and increasing climate change. Total timber values also increased with overall biomass; however, scenarios with increasing climate change tended to favor species with lower merchantable value, whereas more N deposition favored species with higher merchantable value. Tree species diversity was projected to decrease with greater changes in climate (warmer temperatures), especially in the northwestern, central, and southeastern portions of the study area. In contrast, the effects of N deposition on diversity varied greatly in magnitude and direction across the study area. This study highlights species-specific and regional effects of N deposition and climate change in northeastern U.S. forests, which can inform management decision for air quality and forests in the region, as well as climate policy. It also provides a foundation for future studies that may incorporate other important factors such as multiple cohorts, sulfur deposition, insects, and diseases.

RevDate: 2019-06-19

Akpan GE, Adepoju KA, OR Oladosu (2019)

Potential distribution of dominant malaria vector species in tropical region under climate change scenarios.

PloS one, 14(6):e0218523 pii:PONE-D-18-34720.

Risk assessment regarding the distribution of malaria vectors and environmental variables underpinning their distribution under changing climates is crucial towards malaria control and eradication. On this basis, we used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Model to estimate the potential future distribution of major transmitters of malaria in Nigeria-Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and its siblings: Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and Anopheles arabiensis under low and high emissions scenarios. In the model, we used mosquito occurrence data sampled from 1900 to 2010 alongside land use and terrain variables, and bioclimatic variables for baseline climate 1960-1990 and future climates of 2050s (2041-2060) and 2070s (2061-2080) that follow RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Anopheles gambiae species are projected to experience large shift in potential range and population with increased distribution density, higher under high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and 2070s than low emission scenario (RCP2.6) and 2050s. Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and Anopheles arabiensis are projected to have highest invasion with 47-70% and 10-14% percentage increase, respectively in Sahel and Sudan savannas within northern states in 2041-2080 under RCP8.5. Highest prevalence is predicted for Humid forest and Derived savanna in southern and North Central states in 2041-2080; 91-96% and 97-99% for Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and 67-71% and 72-75% for Anopheles arabiensis under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The higher magnitude of change in species prevalence predicted for the later part of the 21st century under high emission scenario, driven mainly by increasing and fluctuating temperature, alongside longer seasonal tropical rainfall accompanied by drier phases and inherent influence of rapid land use change, may lead to more significant increase in malaria burden when compared with other periods and scenarios during the century; especially in Humid forest, Derived savanna, Sahel and Sudan savannas.

RevDate: 2019-06-19

Cavicchioli R, Ripple WJ, Timmis KN, et al (2019)

Scientists' warning to humanity: microorganisms and climate change.

Nature reviews. Microbiology pii:10.1038/s41579-019-0222-5 [Epub ahead of print].

In the Anthropocene, in which we now live, climate change is impacting most life on Earth. Microorganisms support the existence of all higher trophic life forms. To understand how humans and other life forms on Earth (including those we are yet to discover) can withstand anthropogenic climate change, it is vital to incorporate knowledge of the microbial 'unseen majority'. We must learn not just how microorganisms affect climate change (including production and consumption of greenhouse gases) but also how they will be affected by climate change and other human activities. This Consensus Statement documents the central role and global importance of microorganisms in climate change biology. It also puts humanity on notice that the impact of climate change will depend heavily on responses of microorganisms, which are essential for achieving an environmentally sustainable future.

RevDate: 2019-06-19

Calatayud J, Rodríguez MÁ, Molina-Venegas R, et al (2019)

Pleistocene climate change and the formation of regional species pools.

Proceedings. Biological sciences, 286(1905):20190291.

Although the description of bioregions dates back to the origin of biogeography, the processes originating their associated species pools have been seldom studied. Ancient historical events are thought to play a fundamental role in configuring bioregions, but the effects of more recent events on these regional biotas are largely unknown. We used a network approach to identify regional and sub-regional faunas of European Carabus beetles and developed a method to explore the relative contribution of dispersal barriers, niche similarities and phylogenetic history on their configuration. We identify a transition zone matching the limit of the ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum. While southern species pools are mostly separated by dispersal barriers, in the north species are mainly sorted by their environmental niches. Strikingly, most phylogenetic structuration of Carabus faunas occurred during the Pleistocene. Our results show how extreme recent historical events-such as Pleistocene climate cooling, rather than just deep-time evolutionary processes-can profoundly modify the composition and structure of geographical species pools.

RevDate: 2019-06-18

Wise DH, JR Lensing (2019)

Impacts of rainfall extremes predicted by climate-change models on major trophic groups in the leaf-litter arthropod community.

The Journal of animal ecology [Epub ahead of print].

1.Arthropods in the leaf-litter layer of forest soils influence ecosystem processes such as decomposition. Climate-change models predict both increases and decreases in average rainfall. Increased drought may have greater impacts on the litter arthropod community. In addition to affecting survival or behavior of desiccation-sensitive species, lower rainfall may indirectly lower abundances of consumers that graze drought-stressed fungi, with repercussions for higher trophic levels. 2. We tested the hypothesis that trophic structure will differ between the two rainfall scenarios. In particular, we hypothesized that densities of several broadly defined trophic groupings of arthropods would be lower under reduced rainfall. 3. To test this hypothesis we used sprinklers to impose two rainfall treatments during three growing seasons in roofed, fenced 14-m2 plots; and documented changes in abundance from initial, pre-treatment densities of 39 arthropod taxa. Experimental plots were subjected to either LOW (fortnightly) or HIGH (weekly) average rainfall based upon climate models and the previous 100 years of regional weekly averages. Unroofed open plots, our reference treatment (REF), experienced higher-than-average rainfall during the experiment. 4. The two rainfall extremes produced clear negative effects of lowered rainfall on major trophic groups. Broad categories of fungivores, detritivores and predators were more abundant in HIGH than LOW plots by the final year. Springtails (Collembola), which graze fungal hyphae, were 3x more abundant in the HIGH-rainfall treatment. Taxa of larger-bodied fungivores and detritivores, spiders (Araneae), and non-spider predators were 2x more abundant under HIGH rainfall. Densities of mites (Acari), which include fungivores, detritivores and predators, were 1.5x greater in HIGH rainfall plots. Abundances and community structure of arthropods were similar in REF and experimental plots, showing that effects of rainfall uncovered in the experiment are applicable to nature. 5. This pattern suggests that changes in rainfall will alter bottom-up control processes in a critical detritus-based food web of deciduous forests. Our results, in conjunction with other findings on the impact of desiccation on arthropods and fungal growth, suggest that drier conditions will depress densities of fungal consumers, causing declines in higher trophic levels, with possible impacts on soil processes and the larger forest food web. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-06-18

de Souza JG, Robinson M, Maezumi SY, et al (2019)

Climate change and cultural resilience in late pre-Columbian Amazonia.

Nature ecology & evolution pii:10.1038/s41559-019-0924-0 [Epub ahead of print].

The long-term response of ancient societies to climate change has been a matter of global debate. Until recently, the lack of integrative studies using archaeological, palaeoecological and palaeoclimatological data prevented an evaluation of the relationship between climate change, distinct subsistence strategies and cultural transformations across the largest rainforest of the world, Amazonia. Here we review the most relevant cultural changes seen in the archaeological record of six different regions within Greater Amazonia during late pre-Columbian times. We compare the chronology of those cultural transitions with high-resolution regional palaeoclimate proxies, showing that, while some societies faced major reorganization during periods of climate change, others were unaffected and even flourished. We propose that societies with intensive, specialized land-use systems were vulnerable to transient climate change. In contrast, land-use systems that relied primarily on polyculture agroforestry, resulting in the formation of enriched forests and fertile Amazonian dark earth in the long term, were more resilient to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-06-17

Klymasz-Swartz AK, Allen GJP, Treberg JR, et al (2019)

Impact of climate change on the American lobster (Homarus americanus): Physiological responses to combined exposure of elevated temperature and pCO2.

Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular & integrative physiology pii:S1095-6433(19)30003-0 [Epub ahead of print].

The physiological consequences of exposing marine organisms to predicted future ocean scenarios, i.e. simultaneous increase in temperature and pCO2, have only recently begun to be investigated. Adult American lobster (Homarus americanus) were exposed to either current (16 °C, 47 Pa pCO2, pH 8.10) or predicted year 2300 (20 °C, 948 Pa pCO2, pH 7.10) ocean parameters for 14-16 days prior to assessing physiological changes in their hemolymph parameters as well as whole animal ammonia excretion and resting metabolic rate. Acclimation of lobster simultaneously to elevated pCO2 and temperature induced a prolonged respiratory acidosis that was only partially compensated for via accumulation of extracellular HCO3- and ammonia. Furthermore, acclimated animals possessed significantly higher ammonia excretion and oxygen consumption rates suggesting that future ocean scenarios may increase basal energetic demands on H. americanus. Enzyme activity related to protein metabolism (glutamine dehydrogenase, alanine aminotransferase, and aspartate aminotransferase) in hepatopancreas and muscle tissue were unaltered in future ocean scenario exposed animals; however, muscular citrate synthase activity was reduced suggesting that, while protein catabolism may be unchanged, the net energetic output of muscle may be compromised in future scenarios. Overall, H. americanus acclimated to ocean conditions predicted for the year 2300 appear to be incapable of fully compensating against climate change-related acid-base challenges and experience an increase in metabolic waste excretion and oxygen consumption. Combining our study with past literature on H. americanus suggests that the whole lifecycle from larvae to adult stages is at risk of severe growth, survival and reproductive consequences due to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-06-17

Chala D, Roos C, Svenning JC, et al (2019)

Species-specific effects of climate change on the distribution of suitable baboon habitats - Ecological niche modeling of current and Last Glacial Maximum conditions.

Journal of human evolution, 132:215-226.

Baboons (genus Papio) have been proposed as a possible analogous phylogeographic model for intra-African dispersal of hominins during the Pleistocene. Previous studies of the genus reveal complex evolutionary dynamics including introgressive hybridization and, as for hominins, it has been hypothesized that past climate change has been a major driver in their evolutionary history. However, how historical climate changes affected the distribution and extent of baboon habitats is not clear. We therefore employed three ecological niche modeling algorithms (maximum entropy model: MaxEnt; general additive model: GAM; gradient boosting model: GBM) to map suitable habitat of baboons at both genus and species levels under two extreme late-Quaternary climates: current (warm period) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, cold period). The three model algorithms predicted habitat suitabilities for the baboon species with high accuracy, as indicated by AUC values of 0.83-0.85 at genus level and ≥0.90 for species. The results suggest that climate change from LGM to current affected the distribution and extent of suitable habitats for the genus Papio only slightly (>80% of the habitat remained suitable). However, and in contrast to our expectation for ecological generalists, individual species have been differentially affected. While P. ursinus and P. anubis lost some of their suitable habitats (net loss 25.5% and 13.3% respectively), P. kindae and P. papio gained large portions (net gain >62%), and P. cynocephalus and P. hamadryas smaller portions (net gain >20%). Overlap among the specific realized climate niches remained small, suggesting only slight overlap of suitable habitat among species. Results of our study further suggest that shifts of suitable habitats could have led to isolation and reconnection of populations which most likely affected gene flow among them. The impact of historic climate changes on baboon habitats might have been similar for other savanna living species, such as hominins.

RevDate: 2019-06-17

Spicer JI, Morley SA, F Bozinovic (2019)

Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen.

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 374(1778):20190032.

Documenting and explaining global patterns of biodiversity in time and space have fascinated and occupied biologists for centuries. Investigation of the importance of these patterns, and their underpinning mechanisms, has gained renewed vigour and importance, perhaps becoming pre-eminent, as we attempt to predict the biological impacts of global climate change. Understanding the physiological features that determine, or constrain, a species' geographical range and how they respond to a rapidly changing environment is critical. While the ecological patterns are crystallizing, explaining the role of physiology has just begun. The papers in this volume are the primary output from a Satellite Meeting of the Society of Experimental Biology Annual Meeting, held in Florence in July 2018. The involvement of two key environmental factors, temperature and oxygen, was explored through the testing of key hypotheses. The aim of the meeting was to improve our knowledge of large-scale geographical differences in physiology, e.g. metabolism, growth, size and subsequently our understanding of the role and vulnerability of those physiologies to global climate warming. While such an aim is of heuristic interest, in the midst of our current biodiversity crisis, it has an urgency that is difficult to overstate. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.

RevDate: 2019-06-17

Bennett S, Duarte CM, Marbà N, et al (2019)

Integrating within-species variation in thermal physiology into climate change ecology.

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 374(1778):20180550.

Accurately forecasting the response of global biota to warming is a fundamental challenge for ecology in the Anthropocene. Within-species variation in thermal sensitivity, caused by phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation of thermal limits, is often overlooked in assessments of species responses to warming. Despite this, implicit assumptions of thermal niche conservatism or adaptation and plasticity at the species level permeate the literature with potentially important implications for predictions of warming impacts at the population level. Here we review how these attributes interact with the spatial and temporal context of ocean warming to influence the vulnerability of marine organisms. We identify a broad spectrum of thermal sensitivities among marine organisms, particularly in central and cool-edge populations of species distributions. These are characterized by generally low sensitivity in organisms with conserved thermal niches, to high sensitivity for organisms with locally adapted thermal niches. Important differences in thermal sensitivity among marine taxa suggest that warming could adversely affect benthic primary producers sooner than less vulnerable higher trophic groups. Embracing the spatial, temporal and biological context of within-species variation in thermal physiology helps explain observed impacts of ocean warming and can improve forecasts of climate change vulnerability in marine systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.

RevDate: 2019-06-16

Johnson RJ, Sánchez-Lozada LG, Newman LS, et al (2019)

Climate Change and the Kidney.

Annals of nutrition & metabolism, 74 Suppl 3:38-44.

The worldwide increase in temperature has resulted in a marked increase in heat waves (heat extremes) that carries a markedly increased risk for morbidity and mortality. The kidney has a unique role not only in protecting the host from heat and dehydration but also is an important site of heat-associated disease. Here we review the potential impact of global warming and heat extremes on kidney diseases. High temperatures can result in increased core temperatures, dehydration, and blood hyperosmolality. Heatstroke (both clinical and subclinical whole-body hyperthermia) may have a major role in causing both acute kidney disease, leading to increased risk of acute kidney injury from rhabdomyolysis, or heat-induced inflammatory injury to the kidney. Recurrent heat and dehydration can result in chronic kidney disease (CKD) in animals and theoretically plays a role in epidemics of CKD developing in hot regions of the world where workers are exposed to extreme heat. Heat stress and dehydration also has a role in kidney stone formation, and poor hydration habits may increase the risk for recurrent urinary tract infections. The resultant social and economic consequences include disability and loss of productivity and employment. Given the rise in world temperatures, there is a major need to better understand how heat stress can induce kidney disease, how best to provide adequate hydration, and ways to reduce the negative effects of chronic heat exposure.

RevDate: 2019-06-15

Balsara S, Jain PK, A Ramesh (2019)

An integrated approach using AHP and DEMATEL for evaluating climate change mitigation strategies of the Indian cement manufacturing industry.

Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987), 252(Pt A):863-878 pii:S0269-7491(18)34258-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Concrete, a cement-based product is the highest manufactured and second highest consumed product after water on earth. Across the world, production of cement is the most energy and emission intensive industry hence, the cement industry is currently under pressure to reduce greenhouse gases emissions (GHGEs). However, reducing the GHGEs of the cement industry especially for developing country like India is not an easy task. Cement manufacturing industry needs to focus on significant climate change mitigation strategies to reduce the GHGEs to sustain its production. This study aims at identifying significant climate change mitigation strategies of the cement manufacturing industry in the context of India. Extant literature review and expert opinion are used to identify climate change mitigation strategies of the cement manufacturing industry. In the present study, a model projects by applying both AHP and DEMATEL techniques to assess the climate change mitigation strategies of the cement industry. The AHP technique help in establishing the priorities of climate change mitigation strategies, while the DEMATEL technique forms the causal relationships among them. Through AHP, the results of this research demonstrate that Fuel emission reduction is on top most priority while the relative importance priority of the main remaining factors is Process emission reduction - Electric energy-related emission - Emission avoidance and reduction - Management mitigation measures. The findings also indicate that the main factors, Process emission reduction, and Fuel emission reduction are categorized in cause group factors, while the remaining factors, Electric energy-related emission, Emission avoidance and reduction and Management mitigation measures are in effect group factors. Present model will help supply chain analysts to develop both short-term and long-term decisive measures for effectively managing and reducing GHGEs.

RevDate: 2019-06-15

Ma Y, Liu L, Schwenke G, et al (2019)

The global warming potential of straw-return can be reduced by application of straw-decomposing microbial inoculants and biochar in rice-wheat production systems.

Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987), 252(Pt A):835-845 pii:S0269-7491(19)31959-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Straw-return methods that neither negatively impact yield nor bring environmental risk are ideal patterns. To attain this goal, it is necessary to conduct field observation to evaluate the environmental influence of different straw-return methods. Therefore, we conducted a 2-year field study in 2015-2017 to investigate the emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and the changes in topsoil (0-20 cm) organic carbon (SOC) density in a typical Chinese rice-wheat rotation in the Eastern China. These measurements allowed a complete greenhouse gas accounting (net GWP and GHGI) of five treatments including: FP (no straw, plus fertilizer), FS (wheat straw plus fertilizer), FB (straw-derived biochar plus fertilizer), FSDI (wheat straw with straw-decomposing microbial inoculants plus fertilizer) and CK (control: no straw, no fertilizer). Average annual SOC sequestration rates were estimated to be 0.20, 0.97, 1.97 and 1.87 t C ha-1 yr-1 (0-20 cm) for the FP, FS, FB and FSDI treatments respectively. Relative to the FP treatment, the FS and FSDI treatments increased CH4 emissions by 12.4 and 17.9% respectively, but decreased N2O emissions by 19.1 and 26.6%. Conversely, the FB treatment decreased CH4 emission by 7.2% and increased N2O emission by 10.9% compared to FP. FB increased grain yield, but FS and FSDI did not. Compared to the net GWP (11.6 t CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1) and GHGI (1.20 kg CO2-eq kg-1 grain) of FP, the FS, FB and FSDI treatments reduced net GWP by 12.6, 59.9 and 34.6% and GHGI by 10.5, 65.8 and 37.7% respectively. In rice-wheat systems of eastern China, the environmentally beneficial effects of returning wheat straw can be greatly enhanced by application of straw-decomposing microbial inoculants or by applying straw-derived biochar.

RevDate: 2019-06-14

Debortoli NS, Clark DG, Ford JD, et al (2019)

An integrative climate change vulnerability index for Arctic aviation and marine transportation.

Nature communications, 10(1):2596 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-10347-1.

Climate change vulnerability research methods are often divergent, drawing from siloed biophysical risk approaches or social-contextual frameworks, lacking methods for integrative approaches. This substantial gap has been noted by scientists, policymakers and communities, inhibiting decision-makers' capacity to implement adaptation policies responsive to both physical risks and social sensitivities. Aiming to contribute to the growing literature on integrated vulnerability approaches, we conceptualize and translate new integrative theoretical insights of vulnerability research to a scalable quantitative method. Piloted through a climate change vulnerability index for aviation and marine sectors in the Canadian Arctic, this study demonstrates an avenue of applying vulnerability concepts to assess both biophysical and social components analyzing future changes with linked RCP climate projections. The iterative process we outline is transferable and adaptable across the circumpolar north, as well as other global regions and shows that transportation vulnerability varies across Inuit regions depending on modeled hazards and transportation infrastructures.

RevDate: 2019-06-14

Kubelka V, Šálek M, Tomkovich P, et al (2019)

Response to Comment on "Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds".

Science (New York, N.Y.), 364(6445):.

Bulla et al dispute our main conclusion that the global pattern of nest predation is disrupted in shorebirds. We disagree with Bulla et al's conclusions and contest the robustness of their outcomes. We reaffirm our results that provide clear evidence that nest predation has increased significantly in shorebirds, especially in the Arctic.

RevDate: 2019-06-14

Bulla M, Reneerkens J, Weiser EL, et al (2019)

Comment on "Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds".

Science (New York, N.Y.), 364(6445):.

Kubelka et al (Reports, 9 November 2018, p. 680) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.

RevDate: 2019-06-13

Ferreira MT, Cardoso P, Borges PAV, et al (2019)

Implications of climate change to the design of protected areas: The case study of small islands (Azores).

PloS one, 14(6):e0218168 pii:PONE-D-18-29333.

Climate change is causing shifts in species distributions worldwide. Understanding how species distributions will change with future climate change is thus critical for conservation planning. Impacts on oceanic islands are potentially major given the disproportionate number of endemic species and the consequent risk that local extinctions might become global ones. In this study, we use species climate envelope models to evaluate the current and future potential distributions of Azorean endemic species of bryophytes, vascular plants, and arthropods on the Islands of Terceira and São Miguel in the Azores archipelago (Macaronesia). We examined projections of climate change effects on the future distributions of species with particular focus on the current protected areas. We then used spatial planning optimization software (PRION) to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas at preserving species both in the present and future. We found that contractions of species distributions in protected areas are more likely in the largest and most populated island of São Miguel, moving from the coastal areas towards inland where the current protected areas are insufficient and inadequate to tackle species distribution shifts. There will be the need for a revision of the current protected areas in São Miguel to allow the sustainable conservation of most species, while in Terceira Island the current protected areas appear to be sufficient. Our study demonstrates the importance of these tools for informing long-term climate change adaptation planning for small islands.

RevDate: 2019-06-13

de Luis M, Álvarez-Jiménez J, Martínez Labarga JM, et al (2019)

Four climate change scenarios for Gypsophila bermejoi G. López (Caryophyllaceae) to address whether bioclimatic and soil suitability will overlap in the future.

PloS one, 14(6):e0218160 pii:PONE-D-18-21453.

Climate change has altered the global distribution of many species. Accordingly, we have assessed here the potential shift in the distribution of Gypsophila bermejoi G. López under distinct scenarios of future climate change, this being a species endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. For strict gypsophiles, climatic changes affecting their potential area of distribution could be critical if the new range is not overlapped with suitable soils. Thus, the narrow bioclimatic niche and the endemic nature of this plant could make this species particularly vulnerable to climate change. We used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method to study the potential distribution of this taxon under four different scenarios of climate change, pin-pointing relevant changes in the potential distribution of this plant and enabling possible future areas of refuge to be assessed. Such scenarios are defined according to four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [, which represent different trends in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As a result, we predict notable changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi, and the overlap between soil and bioclimatic suitability would be affected. We also used a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to model the bioclimatic niche of this species, comparing it with that of its parental taxa. The evolution of bioclimatic suitability was assessed at the current locations of G. bermejoi and as this plant is a strict gypsophile, we generated suitability maps for sites with gypsum soils. Ultimately, this study identifies relevant changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi under specific climatic scenarios, observing remarkable differences in the outcomes of the different climate change scenarios. Interestingly, in some scenarios the bioclimatic suitability of G. bermejoi will be enhanced at many locations and even in the worst scenario some possible refuge areas were identified. G. bermejoi behaves more like a hardy survivor than as early victim.

RevDate: 2019-06-13

Cartwright E (2019)

The Medical Anthropology of Climate Change: Eco-Risks and the Body Environmental.

Medical anthropology [Epub ahead of print].

Anthropological research can provide the time depth needed for a rich understanding of the health effects of atmospheric and ocean warming, shifting weather patterns, and the breakdown of biological and social systems large and small. Medical anthropologists are poised to document the human costs of floods, fires, droughts and other catastrophic events, as well as the slowly shifting supplies of fresh water, clean air, and adequate food. Our anthropological eyes on the ground are needed for contextual, local, and critical understandings of how human lifestyles of the twenty-first century are creating climate change.

RevDate: 2019-06-13

Hiscock R, Asikainen A, Tuomisto J, et al (2019)

Corrigendum to "City scale climate change policies: Do they matter for wellbeing?" [Prev. Med. Rep. 6 (2017) 265-270].

Preventive medicine reports, 14:100842 pii:100842.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2017.03.019.].

RevDate: 2019-06-13

Hammarstrand S, V Fritzell (2019)

[Healthcare plays a key role in adapting to the health effects of climate change].

Lakartidningen, 116: pii:FH9X.

Climate change will affect society in many areas, including healthcare.This article aims to explain the health aspects of climate change and how healthcare can play an important role. Rising temperatures affect health through direct effects such as increased heat (especially in tropical countries) and through indirect effects such as deteriorating air quality and changing panorama of infectious diseases. Particularly vulnerable to the effects are small children, elderly and those with severe chronic diseases. In the pursuit of a health care that can resist these effects, action plans based on simple measures that focus on vulnerable groups have been shown to greatly reduce the health impact. Healthcare also has an important role in the work on climate adaptation in Sweden by providing expertise in societal planning and preventive health work. Finally, knowledge among healthcare professionals and students about the health impact of climate change needs to be continuously updated.

RevDate: 2019-06-13

Lourenço-de-Moraes R, Lansac-Toha FM, Schwind LTF, et al (2019)

Climate change will decrease the range size of snake species under negligible protection in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot.

Scientific reports, 9(1):8523 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-44732-z.

Reptiles are highly susceptible to climate change, responding negatively to thermal and rainfall alterations mainly in relation to their reproductive processes. Based on that, we evaluated the effects of climate change on climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of snakes in the Atlantic Forest hotspot, considering the responses of distinct reproductive groups (oviparous and viviparous). We assessed the species richness and turnover patterns affected by climate change and projected the threat status of each snake species at the end of the century. We also evaluated the effectiveness of the protected areas in safeguarding the species by estimating the mean percentage overlap between snake species distribution and protected areas (PAs) network and by assessing whether such areas will gain or lose species under climate change. Our results showed greater species richness in the eastern-central portion of the Atlantic Forest at present. In general, we evidenced a drastic range contraction of the snake species under climate change. Temporal turnover tends to be high in the western and north-eastern edges of the biome, particularly for oviparous species. Our predictions indicate that 73.6% of oviparous species and 67.6% of viviparous species could lose at least half of their original range by 2080. We also found that existing protected areas of the Atlantic Forest Hotspot have a very limited capacity to safeguard snakes at the current time, maintaining the precarious protection in the future, with the majority of them predicted to lose species at the end of this century. Although oviparous and viviparous snakes have been designated to be dramatically impacted, our study suggests a greater fragility of the former in the face of climate change. We advocated that the creation of new protected areas and/or the redesign of the existing network to harbour regions that maximize the snake species occupancy in the face of future warming scenarios are crucial measures for the conservation of this group.

RevDate: 2019-06-13

Horie T (2019)

Global warming and rice production in Asia: Modeling, impact prediction and adaptation.

Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and biological sciences, 95(6):211-245.

Since the projection of global warming emerged in 1980s with the potential of laying enormous impacts on agriculture and food security of the world, we have conducted experimental and modeling studies for clarifying its effects on rice production in Asia and for developing adaptive rice production technologies. On the basis of measurement of rice responses to climate and carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), the dynamic process model named SIMRIW was developed to predict global warming effects on irrigated rice. The model predicted differential regional effects of the projected global warming by doubling [CO2] on the rice yield over Asia, and indicated that high tolerance to heat-induced spikelet sterility and high yield potential under elevated [CO2] are the two important characteristics required for rice genotypes adaptive to global warming environment. Further, genetic traits associated with these characteristics and their genetic resources for breeding adaptive genotypes were identified from diverse rice germplasms. This article reviews our initiative studies in the light of the recent studies, and points out further research that is needed for better understanding and overcoming of this unprecedentedly large problem.

RevDate: 2019-06-12

Nogeire-McRae T, Lawler JJ, Schumaker NH, et al (2019)

Land use change and rodenticide exposure trump climate change as the biggest stressors to San Joaquin kit fox.

PloS one, 14(6):e0214297 pii:PONE-D-18-28217.

Animal and plant species often face multiple threats simultaneously. We explored the relative impact of three major threats on populations of the endangered San Joaquin kit fox. This species was once widely distributed across the southern San Joaquin Valley, California, USA, but agriculture and urban development have replaced much of its natural habitat. We modeled impacts of climate change, land-use change, and rodenticide exposure on kit fox populations using a spatially explicit, individual-based population model from 2000 to 2050 for the Central Valley, California. Our study indicates that land-use change will likely have the largest impact on kit fox populations. Land development has the potential to decrease populations by approximately 15% under a compact growth scenario in which projected population increases are accommodated within existing urban areas, and 17% under a business-as-usual scenario in which future population growth increases the developed area around urban centers. Plausible scenarios for exposure to pesticides suggest a reduction in kit fox populations by approximately 13%. By contrast, climate change has the potential to ameliorate some of these impacts. Climate-change induced vegetation shifts have the potential to increase total available kit fox habitat and could drive population increases of up to 7%. These vegetation shifts could also reduce movement barriers and create opportunities for hybridization between the endangered San Joaquin kit fox and the more widely distributed desert kit fox, found in the Mojave Desert. In contrast to these beneficial impacts, increasing climate extremes raise the probability of the kit fox population dropping below critical levels. Taken together, these results paint a complex picture of how an at-risk species is likely to respond to multiple threats.

RevDate: 2019-06-12

Lotze HK, Tittensor DP, Bryndum-Buchholz A, et al (2019)

Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1900194116 [Epub ahead of print].

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

RevDate: 2019-06-11

Kiat Y, Vortman Y, N Sapir (2019)

Feather moult and bird appearance are correlated with global warming over the last 200 years.

Nature communications, 10(1):2540 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-10452-1.

Global warming alters various avian phenological processes, including advanced reproduction and migration schedules. In birds, individual appearance is largely determined by plumage, influencing, for example, bird attractiveness, social status and camouflage. Juveniles of most passerine species replace their nest-grown plumage during the first months of life, a process that is called post-juvenile feather moult. Using data from ten natural history collections, we show that the extent of the post-juvenile moult has increased significantly over the last 212 years (1805-2016), a trend that is positively correlated with the temperature of the environment. Therefore, it seems that birds replaced more feathers under warmer conditions, causing juveniles to appear more similar to adult birds. Moreover, in several species, we describe a male-female switch in the extent of moult, with females currently replacing more feathers than males compared to the past. These results demonstrate different biological responses to climate warming by different phenotypes.

RevDate: 2019-06-11

Emerick K, PC Ronald (2019)

Sub1 Rice: Engineering Rice for Climate Change.

Cold Spring Harbor perspectives in biology pii:cshperspect.a034637 [Epub ahead of print].

By the year 2100, the number of people on Earth is expected to increase by ∼50%, placing increasing demands on food production in a time when a changing climate is predicted to compromise crop yields. Feeding this future world requires scientifically informed innovations in agriculture. Here, we describe how a rice gene conferring tolerance to prolonged submergence has helped farmers in South and Southeast Asia mitigate rice crop failure during floods. We discuss how planting of this new variety benefited socially disadvantaged groups. This example indicates that investment in agricultural improvement can protect farmers from risks associated with a changing climate.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Celedon JM, J Bohlmann (2019)

Oleoresin defenses in conifers: chemical diversity, terpene synthases, limitations of oleoresin defense under climate change.

The New phytologist [Epub ahead of print].

Conifers have evolved complex oleoresin terpene defenses against herbivores and pathogens. In co-evolved bark beetles, conifer terpenes also serve chemo-ecological functions as pheromone precursors, chemical barcodes for host identification, or nutrients for insect-associated microbiomes. We highlight the genomic, molecular and biochemical underpinnings of the large chemical space of conifer oleoresin terpenes and volatiles. Conifer terpenes are predominantly the products of the conifer terpene synthase (TPS) gene family. Terpene diversity is increased by cytochromes P450 of the CYP720B class. Many conifer TPS are multi-product enzymes. Multi-substrate CYP720B enzymes catalyze multi-step oxidations. We summarize known terpenoid gene functions in various different conifer species with reference to the annotated terpenoid gene space in a spruce genome. Overall, biosynthesis of terpene diversity in conifers is achieved through a system of biochemical radiation and metabolic grids. Expression of TPS and CYP720B genes can be specific to individual cell-types of constitutive or traumatic resin duct systems. Induced terpenoid transcriptomes in resin duct cells lead to dynamic changes of terpene composition and quantity to fend off herbivores and pathogens. While terpenoid defenses have contributed much to the evolutionary success of conifers, under new conditions of climate change, these defenses may become inconsequential against range-expanding forest pests. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Zhang M, Liu Z, MP van Dijk (2019)

Measuring urban vulnerability to climate change using an integrated approach, assessing climate risks in Beijing.

PeerJ, 7:e7018 pii:7018.

This study is responding to the recommendation made by IPCC's fifth Assessment Report on establishing a standard for measuring and reporting climate risk and vulnerability. It exemplifies the assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change by an integrated approach. The results indicate that Beijing is highly exposed to multiple climate threats in the context of global climate change, specifically urban heat waves, urban drainage floods and drought. Vulnerabilities to the climatic threats of heat waves, drainage floods and droughts have increased by 5%-15% during the period of 2008-2016 in Beijing. High vulnerabilities to both heat waves and drainage floods have been observed in the urban downtown area and high vulnerability to droughts have been observed in the outskirts. This vulnerability assessment, which addressed climatic threats, provides a holistic understanding of the susceptibility to climate change that could facilitate adaptation to climate change in the future. The developments of threats like flooding, heat waves and droughts are analyzed separately for 16 districts and an integrated vulnerability index for all of Beijing is provided as well.

RevDate: 2019-06-09

Rotundo JL, Tang T, CD Messina (2019)

Response of maize photosynthesis to high temperature: Implications for modeling the impact of global warming.

Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB, 141:202-205 pii:S0981-9428(19)30235-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Negative impacts of increased temperature on maize yield are anticipated using simulation models. However, some temperature functions are parameterized with partial information. There is limited information on photosynthesis response to high temperature in modern maize hybrids. Improved photosynthesis-temperature functions are key for realistic yield simulations. Our experiment was aimed at building a functional relationship between photosynthesis and air temperature exploring temperature ranges relevant for global warming simulations. Maize hybrids from cold, temperate, and subtropical regions were included in the study to assess genetic adaptation. Results showed a trilinear response to temperature with an optimum of 40 °C. No genetic adaptation was observed among the diverse set of hybrids evaluated. Results contrast with common temperature-limiting functions indicating a decline in carbon assimilation above 30-33 °C. Our results suggest possible overestimations of negative impacts of global warming on maize yield due to the use of inadequate response functions relating carbon assimilation to temperature.

RevDate: 2019-06-09

Nadermann N, Seward RK, H Volkoff (2019)

Effects of potential climate change -induced environmental modifications on food intake and the expression of appetite regulators in goldfish.

Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular & integrative physiology pii:S1095-6433(19)30219-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate changes due to global warming result in part from the release of gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane into the atmosphere and results in warming and acidification of water bodies, and changes precipitation and wind patterns, which might in turn affect water currents, turbulence and turbidity. These changes might affect feeding and its endocrine control. Feeding is regulated by central and peripheral hormones that either stimulate (e.g. orexin, ghrelin) or inhibit (e.g. irisin, cocaine and amphetamine regulated transcript - CART, cholecystokinin - CCK and peptide YY -PYY) food intake. In this study we examined the effects of four climate change-related environmental factors (i.e. temperature, pH, turbulence and turbidity) on food intake and the hypothalamic and intestinal expressions of appetite regulators in fish, using goldfish as a model. High temperatures increased food intake and the brain expression of orexin, and decrease brain CART 1 and intestinal CCK, PYY and ghrelin. Low pHs decreased feeding and increased the expressions of CART1 and CART2 in the hypothalamus and CCK and PYY in the intestine. Turbulence (waves) induced an increase in food intake and a decrease in mRNA expression levels of both CART1 and CART2 in the hypothalamus and both CCK and PYY in the intestine. Turbidity (low visibility) did not affect food intake but increased locomotion and the time taken to reach satiation, while increasing brain orexin and intestinal PYY expression levels and lowering CART1 hypothalamic expression. The results of this study suggest that environmental stress affects feeding physiology of goldfish and bring new insights on how fish might respond to climate changes.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Burley H, Beaumont LJ, Ossola A, et al (2019)

Substantial declines in urban tree habitat predicted under climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 685:451-462 pii:S0048-9697(19)32328-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Globally, local governments are increasing investment in urban greening projects. However, there is little consideration of whether the species being planted will be resilient to climate change. We assessed the distribution of climatically suitable habitat, now and in the future, for 176 tree species native to Australia, commonly planted across Australia's Significant Urban Areas (SUAs) and currently grown by commercial nurseries. Species' occurrence records were obtained from inventories and herbaria, globally and across Australia, and combined with baseline climate data (WorldClim, 1960-1990) and six climate scenarios for 2030 and 2070 using climatic suitability models (CSMs). CSMs for each species were calibrated and projected onto baseline and future scenarios. We calculated changes in the size of climatically suitable habitat for each species across each SUA, and identified urban areas that are likely to have suitable climate for either fewer or more of our study species under future climate. By 2070, climatically suitable habitat in SUAs is predicted to decline for 73% of species assessed. For 18% of these species, climatically suitable area is predicted to be more than halved, relative to their baseline extent. Generally, for urban areas in cooler regions, climatically suitable habitat is predicted to increase. By contrast, for urban areas in warmer regions, a greater proportion of tree species may lose climatically suitable habitat. Our results highlight changing patterns of urban climatic space for commonly planted species, suggesting that local governments and the horticultural industry should take a proactive approach to identify new climate-ready species for urban plantings.

RevDate: 2019-06-08

Robert MA, Christofferson RC, Weber PD, et al (2019)

Temperature impacts on dengue emergence in the United States: Investigating the role of seasonality and climate change.

Epidemics pii:S1755-4365(18)30160-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Tropical mosquito-borne viruses have been expanding into more temperate regions in recent decades. This is partly due to the coupled effects of temperature on mosquito life history traits and viral infection dynamics and warming surface temperatures, resulting in more suitable conditions for vectors and virus transmission. In this study, we use a deterministic ordinary differential equations model to investigate how seasonal and diurnal temperature fluctuations affect the potential for dengue transmission in six U.S. cities. We specifically consider temperature-dependent mosquito larval development, adult mosquito mortality, and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus. We show that the ability of introductions to lead to outbreaks depends upon the relationship between a city's temperature profile and the time of year at which the initial case is introduced. We also investigate how the potential for outbreaks changes with predicted future increases in mean temperatures due to climate change. We find that climate change will likely lead to increases in suitability for dengue transmission and will increase the periods of the year in which introductions may lead to outbreaks, particularly in cities that typically have mild winters and warm summers, such as New Orleans, Louisiana, and El Paso, Texas. We discuss our results in the context of temperature heterogeneity within and across cities and how these differences may impact the potential for dengue emergence given present day and predicted future temperatures.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Ishida K, Ohara N, Ercan A, et al (2019)

Impacts of climate change on snow accumulation and melting processes over mountainous regions in Northern California during the 21st century.

The Science of the total environment, 685:104-115 pii:S0048-9697(19)32296-X [Epub ahead of print].

A point-location-based analysis of future climate change impacts on snow accumulation and melting processes was conducted over three study watersheds in Northern California during a 90-year future period by means of snow regime projections. The snow regime projections were obtained by means of a physically-based snow model with dynamically downscaled future climate projections. Then, atmospheric and snow-related variables, and their interrelations during the 21st century were investigated to reveal future climate change impacts on snow accumulation and melting processes. The analysis shows large reductions in snow water equivalent (SWE), snowfall to precipitation (S/P) ratio, and snowmelt through the 21st century. Timing of the peak of the SWE and snowmelt will also change in the future. Meanwhile, the analysis in this study shows that air temperature rise will affect, but will not dominate the future change in snowmelt over the study watersheds. This result implies the importance of considering atmospheric variables other than air temperature, such as precipitation, shortwave radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed even if these variables will not clearly change during the 21st century.

RevDate: 2019-06-07

De Paula Baer A, Sestili C, Cocchiara RA, et al (2019)

Perception of Climate Change: validation of a questionnaire in Italy.

La Clinica terapeutica, 170(3):e184-e191.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate Change (CC) is a worldwide concern with important consequences for Public Health. A more sustainable and responsible way of living is necessary in order to reduce CC consequences, and adequation to this is directly related to risk perception and knowledge about the phenomenon. The aim of this study was to validate a questionnaire to measure the knowledge of Italians on CC and its consequences.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: The questionnaire was administered online to high school students, their parents and teachers that were participating to a meeting at Sapienza University. The questionnaire contained a sociodemographic section and 19 questions on causes and consequences of CC and ways to fight it. The statistical analysis was performed with Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 25.

RESULTS: Sixty-four individuals answered the online questionnaire. The analysis of internal consistency was performed by 12 dichotomous variables that measured the knowledge level on CC. The analysis showed a standardized Cronbach's alpha equal to 0.39, corresponding to a low reliability. When females were excluded, the alpha value rose to 0.497, and ascended to the reliable value of 0.639 when refining the selection of the included questions.

CONCLUSIONS: The Cronbach's alpha value found showed a low reliability but achieves acceptable levels when considering only males and excluding some of the initial questions. Future studies should be performed in order to highlight the reliability of this tool to assess the knowledge about CC among the population.

RevDate: 2019-06-07

Dyer O (2019)

Climate change: swift action is needed to prevent millions of premature deaths, report warns.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 365:l4104.

RevDate: 2019-06-06

Bury TM, Bauch CT, M Anand (2019)

Charting pathways to climate change mitigation in a coupled socio-climate model.

PLoS computational biology, 15(6):e1007000 pii:PCOMPBIOL-D-18-01453.

Geophysical models of climate change are becoming increasingly sophisticated, yet less effort is devoted to modelling the human systems causing climate change and how the two systems are coupled. Here, we develop a simple socio-climate model by coupling an Earth system model to a social dynamics model. We treat social processes endogenously-emerging from rules governing how individuals learn socially and how social norms develop-as well as being influenced by climate change and mitigation costs. Our goal is to gain qualitative insights into scenarios of potential socio-climate dynamics and to illustrate how such models can generate new research questions. We find that the social learning rate is strongly influential, to the point that variation of its value within empirically plausible ranges changes the peak global temperature anomaly by more than 1°C. Conversely, social norms reinforce majority behaviour and therefore may not provide help when we most need it because they suppress the early spread of mitigative behaviour. Finally, exploring the model's parameter space for mitigation cost and social learning suggests optimal intervention pathways for climate change mitigation. We find that prioritising an increase in social learning as a first step, followed by a reduction in mitigation costs provides the most efficient route to a reduced peak temperature anomaly. We conclude that socio-climate models should be included in the ensemble of models used to project climate change.

RevDate: 2019-06-06

DuRant SE, Willson JD, RB Carroll (2019)

Parental effects and climate change: Will avian incubation behavior shield embryos from increasing environmental temperatures?.

Integrative and comparative biology pii:5511833 [Epub ahead of print].

A major driver of wildlife responses to climate change will include non-genomic effects, like those mediated through parental behavior and physiology (i.e., parental effects). Parental effects can influence lifetime reproductive success and survival, and thus population-level processes. However, the extent to which parental effects will contribute to population persistence or declines in response to climate change is not well understood. These effects may be substantial for species that exhibit extensive parental care behaviors like birds. Environmental temperature is important in shaping avian incubation behavior, both of which interact to determine the thermal conditions embryos are exposed to during development, and subsequently avian phenotypes and secondary sex ratios. In this paper, we argue that incubation behavior may be an important mediator of avian responses to climate change, we compare incubation strategies of two species adapted to different thermal environments nesting in extreme heat, and we present a simple model that estimates changes in egg temperature based on these incubation patterns and predicted increases in maximum daily air temperature. We demonstrate that the predicted increase in air temperature by 2100 in the central United States will increase temperatures eggs experience during afternoon off-bouts, and the proportion of nests exposed to lethal temperatures. To better understand how species and local adaptations and behavioral-plasticity of incubation behavior will contribute to population responses to climate change, comparisons are needed across more avian populations, species, and thermal landscapes.

RevDate: 2019-06-06

Moon IJ, Kim SH, JCL Chan (2019)

Climate change and tropical cyclone trend.

Nature, 570(7759):E3-E5.

RevDate: 2019-06-05

Adedze M, R Osei-Yeboah (2019)

Underuse of modern contraception in sub-Saharan Africa: are there implications for sustainable development and climate change? A review of the literature.

The European journal of contraception & reproductive health care : the official journal of the European Society of Contraception [Epub ahead of print].

Objectives: The aim of this study was to review the recent literature regarding the underuse of modern contraception in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and examine the link with poverty, conflict, sustainable development and climate change. Methods: Data were examined in the PubMed, Hindawi and Science Direct databases. Selected studies were primary research published in the last 10 years relating to modern contraceptive use in SSA. Results: Six common themes contributing to modern contraceptive underuse in SSA emerged: conflicts and security, religious and cultural restrictions, partner consent and support, misconceptions and lack of education, health system barriers and the socioeconomic benefits of having a larger family. Conclusions: The identified barriers to modern contraceptive use in SSA are preventable. It is imperative to ensure that adequate, sustainable measures are implemented to increase the uptake of modern contraception in SSA.

RevDate: 2019-06-04

Watts N, Gong P, Campbell-Lendrum D, et al (2019)

Health and climate change - Authors' reply.

Lancet (London, England), 393(10187):2197-2198.

RevDate: 2019-06-04

Florin TH, DW Allen (2019)

Health and climate change.

Lancet (London, England), 393(10187):2196-2197.

RevDate: 2019-06-04

Gupta V, Mokdad A, Bollyky T, et al (2019)

Leveraging climate change to improve global tobacco control.

Lancet (London, England), 393(10187):2182-2183.

RevDate: 2019-06-04

Gallagher RV, Allen S, IJ Wright (2019)

Safety margins and adaptive capacity of vegetation to climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):8241 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-44483-x.

Vegetation is composed of many individual species whose climatic tolerances can be integrated into spatial analyses of climate change risk. Here, we quantify climate change risk to vegetation at a continental scale by calculating the safety margins for warming and drying (i.e., tolerance to projected change in temperature and precipitation respectively) across plants sharing 100 km × 100 km grid cells (locations). These safety margins measure how much warmer, or drier, a location could become before its 'typical' species exceeds its observed climatic limit. We also analyse the potential adaptive capacity of vegetation to temperature and precipitation change (i.e., likelihood of in situ persistence) using median precipitation and temperature breadth across all species in each location. 47% of vegetation across Australia is potentially at risk from increases in mean annual temperature (MAT) by 2070, with tropical regions most vulnerable. Vegetation at high risk from climate change often also exhibited low adaptive capacity. By contrast, 2% of the continent is at risk from reductions in annual precipitation by 2070. Risk from precipitation change was isolated to the southwest of Western Australia where both the safety margin for drier conditions in the typical species is low, and substantial reductions in MAP are projected.

RevDate: 2019-06-11

Wang X, Xiao J, Li X, et al (2019)

No trends in spring and autumn phenology during the global warming hiatus.

Nature communications, 10(1):2389 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-10235-8.

Phenology plays a fundamental role in regulating photosynthesis, evapotranspiration, and surface energy fluxes and is sensitive to climate change. The global mean surface air temperature data indicate a global warming hiatus between 1998 and 2012, while its impacts on global phenology remains unclear. Here we use long-term satellite and FLUXNET records to examine phenology trends in the northern hemisphere before and during the warming hiatus. Our results based on the satellite record show that the phenology change rate slowed down during the warming hiatus. The analysis of the long-term FLUXNET measurements, mainly within the warming hiatus, shows that there were no widespread advancing (or delaying) trends in spring (or autumn) phenology. The lack of widespread phenology trends partly led to the lack of widespread trends in spring and autumn carbon fluxes. Our findings have significant implications for understanding the responses of phenology to climate change and the climate-carbon feedbacks.

RevDate: 2019-06-06
CmpDate: 2019-06-05

Wight J, J Middleton (2019)

Climate change: the greatest public health threat of the century.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 365:l2371.

RevDate: 2019-06-05
CmpDate: 2019-06-05

Shin GY (2019)

Climate change: overpopulation is the elephant in the room.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 365:l2373.

RevDate: 2019-06-04

Coselli JS (2019)

Commentary: Despite global warming, frozen has its place.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Dittrich R, Butler A, Ball T, et al (2019)

Making real options analysis more accessible for climate change adaptation. An application to afforestation as a flood management measure in the Scottish Borders.

Journal of environmental management, 245:338-347 pii:S0301-4797(19)30697-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change uncertainty makes decisions for adaptation investments challenging, in particular when long time horizons and large irreversible upfront costs are involved. Often the costs will be immediate and clear, but the benefits may be uncertain and only occur in the distant future. Robust decision-making methods such as real options analysis (ROA) handle uncertainty better and are therefore useful to guide decision-making for climate change adaptation. ROA allows for learning about climate change by developing flexible strategies that can be adjusted over time. Practical examples of ROA to climate change adaptation are still relatively limited and tend to be complex. We propose an application that makes ROA more accessible to policy-makers by using the user-friendly and freely available UK climate data of the UKCP09 weather generator, which provides projections of future rainfall, deriving transition probabilities for the ROA in a straightforward way and demonstrating how the analysis can be implemented in spreadsheet format using backward induction. The application is to afforestation as a natural flood management measure (NFM) in a rural catchment in Scotland. The applicability of ROA to broadleaf afforestation as a NFM has not been previously investigated. Different ROA strategies are presented based on varying the damage cost from flooding, fixed cost and the discount rate. The results illustrate how learning can lower the overall investment cost of climate change adaptation but also that the cost structure of afforestation does not lend itself very well to ROA.

RevDate: 2019-06-03

Neal-Boylan L, Breakey S, PK Nicholas (2019)

Integrating Climate Change Topics Into Nursing Curricula.

The Journal of nursing education, 58(6):364-368.

BACKGROUND: Health professionals have a key role in addressing the health impacts of climate change at several levels: direct patient care, client and community education, health professions education, and through advocacy and health policy development.

METHOD: Recognizing that nurses are the first line in health education, nursing faculty at the MGH Institute of Health Professions developed the first nurse-led Center for Climate Change, Climate Justice and Health (CCCCJH).

RESULTS: A steering committee of nurse climate change scholars and interested faculty developed a mission, vision, core values, and a strategic plan for the CCCCJH and are working on integrating climate change topics into nursing curricula at all levels.

CONCLUSION: Nurses are in the ideal position to lead the way to increase awareness among health professionals and students about the health impacts of climate change. Curricular integration of climate change topics at all levels will prepare our students to meet the needs and challenges of the future. [J Nurs Educ. 2019;58(6):364-368.].

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Lehman B, Thompson J, Davis S, et al (2019)

Affective Images of Climate Change.

Frontiers in psychology, 10:960.

Climate change is not only a scientific phenomenon, but also a cultural one. Individuals' opinions on climate change are often based on emotion rather than on scientific evidence. Therefore, research into the emotional characteristics of the imagery that the non-expert public find relevant to climate change is important in order to build a database of effective climate change imagery, which can then be used by scientists, policymakers, and practitioners in mobilizing climate adaptation and resilience efforts. To this end, we collected ratings of relevance to climate change as well as emotional arousal and valence on 320 images to assess the relationship between relevance to climate change and the emotional qualities of the image. In addition, participants' environmental beliefs were measured, to investigate the relationship between beliefs and image ratings. The results suggest that images rated highly relevant to climate change are higher in negative emotional valence and emotional arousal. Overall, images were rated as being more relevant to climate change by participants with higher pro-environmental disposition. Critically, we have compiled the mean relevance, valence, and arousal ratings of each of these 320 images into a database that is posted online and freely available (https://affectiveclimateimages.weebly.com; https://www.nmu.edu/affectiveclimateimages) for use in future research on climate change visuals.

RevDate: 2019-06-03

Isaacs D (2019)

Climate change: Whose responsibility?.

Journal of paediatrics and child health, 55(6):615-616.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Gu L, Chen J, Xu CY, et al (2019)

The contribution of internal climate variability to climate change impacts on droughts.

The Science of the total environment, 684:229-246 pii:S0048-9697(19)32398-8 [Epub ahead of print].

The assessment of climate change impacts is usually done by calculating the change in drought conditions between future and historical periods by using multiple climate model simulations. However, this approach usually focuses on anthropogenic climate changes (ACCs) while ignoring the internal climate variability (ICV) caused by the chaotic nature of the climate system. Recent studies have shown that ICV plays an important role in the projected future climate change. To evaluate that role, this study quantifies the contribution of ICV to climate change impacts on regional droughts by using the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the fraction of standard deviation (FOSD) as metrics for China. The internal climate variability or noise (i.e. ICV) is estimated as the inter-member variability of two climate models' large-member ensembles; the signal (i.e. ACC) and the climate model uncertainty (or inter-model uncertainty, IMU) are estimated as the ensemble mean and inter-model variability of 29 global climate models, respectively. The drought conditions are characterized by drought frequency, duration and severity, which are quantified by using the theory of run based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results show that deteriorated drought conditions induced by ACCs are projected to occur over China. From the perspective of the SNR, the ICV impacts are less significant compared to the ACC impacts for drought metrics. Remarkable spatial variations of SNRs for future drought metrics are found, with values varying from 0.001 to exceeding 10. In terms of the FOSD, ICV contributions relative to the IMU are large, as FOSDs are >1 for around 22% grids. These results imply the significance of taking into account the impacts of ICV in drought assessment, any study ignores the influence of ICV may be biased.

RevDate: 2019-06-01

Asch RG, Stock CA, JL Sarmiento (2019)

Climate change impacts on mismatches between phytoplankton blooms and fish spawning phenology.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Substantial interannual variability in marine fish recruitment (i.e., the number of young fish entering a fishery each year) has been hypothesized to be related to whether the timing of fish spawning matches that of seasonal plankton blooms. Environmental processes that control the phenology of blooms, such as stratification, may differ from those that influence fish spawning, such as temperature-linked reproductive maturation. These different controlling mechanisms could cause the timing of these events to diverge under climate change with negative consequences for fisheries. We use an earth system model to examine the impact of a high-emissions, climate-warming scenario (RCP8.5) on the future spawning time of two classes of temperate, epipelagic fishes: "geographic spawners" whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed geographic features (e.g., rivers, estuaries, reefs) and "environmental spawners" whose spawning grounds move responding to variations in environmental properties, such as temperature. By the century's end, our results indicate that projections of increased stratification cause spring and summer phytoplankton blooms to start 16 days earlier on average (±0.05 days SE) at latitudes >40°N. The temperature-linked phenology of geographic spawners changes at a rate twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing these fishes to spawn before the bloom starts across >85% of this region. "Extreme events," defined here as seasonal mismatches >30 days that could lead to fish recruitment failure, increase 10-fold for geographic spawners in many areas under the RCP8.5 scenario. Mismatches between environmental spawners and phytoplankton were smaller and less widespread, although sizable mismatches still emerged in some regions. This indicates that range shifts undertaken by environmental spawners may increase the resiliency of fishes to climate change impacts associated with phenological mismatches, potentially buffering against declines in larval fish survival, recruitment, and fisheries. Our model results are supported by empirical evidence from ecosystems with multidecadal observations of both fish and phytoplankton phenology.

RevDate: 2019-06-01

Fei L, Meijun Z, H Min (2019)

Climate change in different geographical units and its impact on land production potential: a case study of Shaanxi Province, China.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-05503-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Land production potential (LPP) was the maximum grain yield in one year that can be produced by land under the limitations of climate conditions and in the absence of pests and diseases and other factors. Whether climate change was increasing or reducing the LPP in a given region was uncertain. Therefore, Shaanxi Province was selected to analyze the regional differences in climate change and its effects on LPP change and to identify the main climatic factor restricting LPP in different regions by combining Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) model with the Geodetector model. Results showed that the temperature in Shaanxi Province showed an upward trend in 2000-2015; the rise in temperature to the north of Qinling Mountain (QM) was less than that to the south of QM. However, rising temperature had a yield-improving effect to the north of QM and a yield-decreasing effect to the south of QM. There was a precipitation increase in Arid Sandy (AS) area and Loess Plateau (LP), and the precipitation reduced in all other geographical units. The increase in LPP of Shaanxi mostly was caused by increasing precipitation. However, precipitation was declined and reduced LPP to the south of QM; that is, precipitation decline was the dominated climatic factor for LPP decrease in QM, Hanjiang Basin (HB), and Daba Mountain (DM). To the north of QM, LPP in AS, LP, and Guanzhong Plain (GP) both dramatically increased, mainly improved by rising temperature, increasing precipitation, and rising temperature, respectively.

RevDate: 2019-05-31

Ray DK, West PC, Clark M, et al (2019)

Climate change has likely already affected global food production.

PloS one, 14(5):e0217148 pii:PONE-D-18-31437.

Crop yields are projected to decrease under future climate conditions, and recent research suggests that yields have already been impacted. However, current impacts on a diversity of crops subnationally and implications for food security remains unclear. Here, we constructed linear regression relationships using weather and reported crop data to assess the potential impact of observed climate change on the yields of the top ten global crops-barley, cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane and wheat at ~20,000 political units. We find that the impact of global climate change on yields of different crops from climate trends ranged from -13.4% (oil palm) to 3.5% (soybean). Our results show that impacts are mostly negative in Europe, Southern Africa and Australia but generally positive in Latin America. Impacts in Asia and Northern and Central America are mixed. This has likely led to ~1% average reduction (-3.5 X 1013 kcal/year) in consumable food calories in these ten crops. In nearly half of food insecure countries, estimated caloric availability decreased. Our results suggest that climate change has already affected global food production.

RevDate: 2019-05-31

Zou Y, Ge X, Guo S, et al (2019)

Impacts of climate change and host plant availability on the global distribution of Brontispa longissima (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae).

Pest management science [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: The coconut hispine beetle Brontispa longissima Gestro (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) is one of the most serious pests of the coconut palm, Cocos nucifera L. (Arecales: Arecaceae) and other palms. The invasion of B. longissima causes major economic and ecological losses worldwide. In this study, the impacts of climate change on the risk of spread were evaluated. CLIMEX was used to project its global potential distribution based on historical climate data (1987-2016) and simulated future climate data (2071-2100).

RESULTS: The distribution of B. longissima included each continent under historical and future climate conditions. However, climate suitability was predicted to decrease in most tropical and subtropical regions under a climate change scenario. Temperature was a more important determinant of the climatic suitability of the pest than relative humidity or precipitation. The availability of host plants (Arecaceae) only had a slight impact on climate suitability in some regions.

CONCLUSION: The projected potential distribution of B. longissima will help to determine the impacts of climate change and will provide supportive information for the development of management strategies to reduce future economic and ecological losses. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-05-31

Amundrud SL, DS Srivastava (2019)

Disentangling how climate change can affect an aquatic food web by combining multiple experimental approaches.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Predicting the biological effects of climate change presents major challenges due to the interplay of potential biotic and abiotic mechanisms. Climate change can create unexpected outcomes by altering species interactions, and uncertainty over the ability of species to develop in situ tolerance or track environmental change further hampers meaningful predictions. As multiple climatic variables shift in concert, their potential interactions further complicate ecosystem responses. Despite awareness of these complexities, we still lack controlled experiments that manipulate multiple climatic stressors, species interactions, and prior exposure of species to future climatic conditions. Particularly studies that address how changes in water availability interact with other climatic stressors to affect aquatic ecosystems are still rare. Using aquatic insect communities of Neotropical tank bromeliads, we combined controlled manipulations of drought length and species interactions with a space-for-time transplant (lower elevations represent future climate) and a common garden approach. Manipulating drought length and experiment elevation revealed that adverse effects of drought were amplified at the warmer location, highlighting the potential of climatic stressors to synergistically affect communities. Manipulating the presence of omnivorous tipulid larvae showed that negative interactions from tipulids, presumably from predation, arose under drought, and were stronger at the warmer location, stressing the importance of species interactions in mediating community responses to climate change. The common garden treatments revealed that prior community exposure to potential future climatic conditions did not affect the outcome. In this powerful experiment, we demonstrated how complexities arise from the interplay of biotic and abiotic mechanisms of climate change. We stress that single species can steer ecological outcomes, and suggest that focusing on such disproportionately influential species may improve attempts at making meaningful predictions of climate change impacts on food webs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-06-06
CmpDate: 2019-06-06

Salas RN, Jacobs W, F Perera (2019)

The Case of Juliana v. U.S. - Children and the Health Burdens of Climate Change.

The New England journal of medicine, 380(22):2085-2087.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Silva JLSE, Cruz-Neto O, Peres CA, et al (2019)

Climate change will reduce suitable Caatinga dry forest habitat for endemic plants with disproportionate impacts on specialized reproductive strategies.

PloS one, 14(5):e0217028 pii:PONE-D-19-03271.

Global climate change alters the dynamic of natural ecosystems and directly affects species distributions, persistence and diversity. The impacts of climate change may lead to dramatic changes in biotic interactions, such as pollination and seed dispersal. Life history traits are extremely important to consider the vulnerability of a species to climate change, producing more robust models than those based primarily on species distributions. Here, we hypothesized that rising temperatures and aridity will reduce suitable habitats for the endemic flora of the Caatinga, the most diverse dry tropical forest on Earth. Specifically, species with specialized reproductive traits (e.g. vertebrate pollination, biotic dispersal, obligatory cross-pollination) should be more affected by climate change than those with generalist traits. We performed two ecological niche models (current and future) to simulate the effects of climate change on the distribution area of endemic species in relation to life-history traits. We used the MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 models for both intermediate (RCP4.5) and highest predicted (RCP8.5) GHG emission scenarios, with a resolution of 30' (~1 km2). Habitat with high occurrence probability (>80%) of endemic species will be reduced (up to ~10% for trees, ~13% for non-arboreous, 10-28% for species with any pollination/reproductive system), with the greatest reductions for species with specialized reproductive traits. In addition, the likely concentration of endemic plants in the extreme northeastern portion of the Caatinga, in more mesic areas, coincides with the currently most human-modified areas of the ecosystem, which combined with climate change will further contract suitable habitats of endemic species. In conclusion, plant species endemic to the Caatinga are highly vulnerable to even conservative scenarios of future climate change and may lose much of their climatic envelopes. New protected areas should be located in the northeastern portion of the Caatinga, which hosts a more favorable climate, but is currently exposed to escalating agricultural intensification.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Muttarak R, A Dimitrova (2019)

Climate change and seasonal floods: potential long-term nutritional consequences for children in Kerala, India.

BMJ global health, 4(2):e001215 pii:bmjgh-2018-001215.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Padilla P, Ducret V, Bonneaud C, et al (2019)

Acclimation temperature effects on locomotor traits in adult aquatic anurans (X. tropicalis and X. laevis) from different latitudes: possible implications for climate change.

Conservation physiology, 7(1):coz019 pii:coz019.

Climate change is in part responsible for the 70% decline in amphibian species numbers worldwide. Although temperature is expected to impact whole-organism performance in ectotherms, reversible thermal acclimation has been suggested as a mechanism that may buffer responses to abrupt temperature changes. Here, we test for an effect of acclimation on locomotor performance traits (jump force and stamina) in adults of two predominantly aquatic and closely related frog species from different climatic regions, Xenopus tropicalis (tropical) and Xenopus laevis (temperate). We find significant effects of acclimation temperature on exertion capacity and for jump force in X. tropicalis but no effect of acclimation temperature on burst performance in X. laevis. Our results suggest that the two locomotor performance traits measured are differentially impacted by acclimation temperature in X. tropicalis. Our results further support the hypothesis that lower-latitude ectotherms might have greater acclimation capacity than high-latitude ones. Finally, our results highlight the importance of investigating multiple performance traits when evaluating how animals may cope with changes in temperature. Further work is required to evaluate the potential for acclimation in mitigating the negative impacts of climate change on amphibian populations.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Dahal K, Li XQ, Tai H, et al (2019)

Improving Potato Stress Tolerance and Tuber Yield Under a Climate Change Scenario - A Current Overview.

Frontiers in plant science, 10:563.

Global climate change in the form of extreme heat and drought poses a major challenge to sustainable crop production by negatively affecting plant performance and crop yield. Such negative impact on crop yield is likely to be aggravated in future because continued greenhouse gas emissions will cause further rise in temperature leading to increased evapo-transpiration and drought severity, soil salinity as well as insect and disease threats. This has raised a major challenge for plant scientists on securing global food demand, which urges an immediate need to enhance the current yield of major food crops by two-fold to feed the increasing population. As a fourth major food crop, enhancing potato productivity is important for food security of an increasing population. However, potato plant is highly prone to high temperature, drought, soil salinity, as well as insect and diseases. In order to maintain a sustainable potato production, we must adapt our cultivation practices and develop stress tolerant potato cultivars that are appropriately engineered for changing environment. Yet the lack of data on the underlying mechanisms of potato plant resistance to abiotic and biotic stress and the ability to predict future outcomes constitutes a major knowledge gap. It is a challenge for plant scientists to pinpoint means of improving tuber yield under increasing CO2, high temperature and drought stress including the changing patterns of pest and pathogen infestations. Understanding stress-related physiological, biochemical and molecular processes is crucial to develop screening procedures for selecting crop cultivars that can better adapt to changing growth conditions. Elucidation of such mechanism may offer new insights into the identification of specific characteristics that may be useful in breeding new cultivars aimed at maintaining or even enhancing potato yield under changing climate. This paper discusses the recent progress on the mechanism by which potato plants initially sense the changes in their surrounding CO2, temperature, water status, soil salinity and consequently respond to these changes at the molecular, biochemical and physiological levels. We suggest that future research needs to be concentrated on the identification and characterization of signaling molecules and target genes regulating stress tolerance and crop yield potential.

RevDate: 2019-05-28

Yao Y, YS Tseng (2019)

[Health Promotion and Emergency Medical Care for All Age Groups Under Conditions of Climate Change].

Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing, 66(3):29-34.

Climate change impacts on the ecosystem services that people rely on, such as water, air, and agricultural products. The quality and quantity of various ecosystem services may be diminished under conditions of extreme climate change. Therefore, the effects of climate change may be expected to threaten people's health and survival. The concept of health promotion includes attention to the environment and emphasizes balance between nature and manmade structures. In addition, health promotion practices and actions in response to climate change emphasize multidisciplinary cooperation and focus on health inequality and vulnerable populations. Therefore, health promotion professionals must have sufficient professional competence in order to manage the multifaceted health impacts of climate change. The purpose of this article is to review the literature on health promotion and emergency medical care under conditions of climate change. Examples are provided to delineate the biological, psychological, social, and spiritual effects of climate change. The results of this literature review may provide community-based health promotion and emergency medical services guidance for further development and improvements. Healthcare professionals are expected to play a central role in managing the impact of climate change in order to achieve health for all.

RevDate: 2019-05-28

Wu CD (2019)

[Application of Geospatial Information Technologies in Assessing Changes in Regional Health Risks Related to Climate Change].

Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing, 66(3):14-22.

Changes in climate and global warming trends impact the ecological balance as well as human health. The recent development of geospatial information technologies such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing provides useful tools to assess the impacts of climate changes on human health over large areas. This article aimed to conduct a literature review related to the application of geospatial information technologies in order to assess climate-change-related health risks in Taiwan, with primary outcomes of interest including physiological and mental health and infectious diseases. Three environmental factors, including temperature, precipitation, and air pollution, and their impacts on human health were considered. Comments were raised for future studies in Taiwan on this subject area. Among the hundred papers reviewed, 28 were related to the target topic, and air pollution and fine particle studies were the focus of most of these 28 papers. Studies related to extreme temperature indicted growing concern with this issue. However, limited research was found related to precipitation and environmental greenness. Therefore, future studies should pay greater attention to these two environmental issues. We hope that the findings of this literature review will encourage more researchers to investigate this subject.

RevDate: 2019-05-28

Wu PC (2019)

[Adaptation to Climate Change: Regional Revitalization and Community Health].

Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing, 66(3):6-13.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published "The Adaptation Gap Report 2018" in December 2018 to promote adaptation to global climate change in the realm of public health. This report notes that we are still far from being able to cope with the impacts that many scientists are predicting. In addition, this report calls on countries to construct the Climate Resilience of Health System, which is a multidisciplinary approach to building the capacity necessary to prepare for and adapt to extreme weather. Strategies for adaptation require not only top-down integration from national and regional governments but also bottom-up participation from communities and individuals. This article aims to elucidate the concept of community-based adaptation to climate change and presents applications of this concept. Because the government is promoting the national policy of "Regional Revitalization", the sustainable community may be built if this policy takes into account adaptation to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-05-28

Huang CL (2019)

[Environmental Health and Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change].

Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing, 66(3):4-5.

The United Nation's 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are an urgent call to all countries for action to combat climate change and its impacts (United Nations, 2015). In response, Taiwan's highest national body, the Executive Yuan, has designated health as one of eight primary areas of threats and challenges in the policy document "Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change in Taiwan". Further, the Ministry of Education has been promoting climate-change adaptation education since 2012 and, in 2016, the Teaching Alliance was established to promote the integration of climate change issues into public education curricula as well as resource sharing and multidisciplinary collaboration (Ministry of Education, 2019). The focus of nursing on primary healthcare and community care makes nursing professionals critical to successfully attaining UN SDGs (Shmian, 2016). In addition, the environmental health component of nursing education addresses core global health and public health competences directly (Clark, Raffray, Hendricks, & Gagnon, 2016). The American Nurses Association (2013) includes environmental health as one of the eleven standards of professional performance for public health nursing. This column invites Teaching Alliance educators to share their experiences in multidisciplinary professional, teaching, and practice environments in articles that hopefully enhance readers' knowledge of adaptation strategies and of the sustainable development of public health under climate change.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Böhm G, Pfister HR, Salway A, et al (2019)

Remembering and Communicating Climate Change Narratives - The Influence of World Views on Selective Recollection.

Frontiers in psychology, 10:1026.

We examine how people remember stories about climate change and how they communicate these stories to others. Drawing on theories of reconstructive memory and cultural theory, we assume that recollection is systematically affected by an individual's world view as well as by the world view of the target audience. In an experimental study with a Norwegian representative sample (N = 266), participants read a story about three politicians, in which each protagonist was described as holding a specific world view and as trying to tackle climate change with a corresponding strategy (individualistic/free market oriented, hierarchical/technology-oriented, or egalitarian/sustainability-oriented). After 1 day and then after 1 week, participants were asked to retell the story as if to somebody who was characterized as being either an individualist, a hierarchist, or an egalitarian; in addition, a neutral recall control condition without a specified audience was included. Participants' own world view was assessed and they were classified as endorsing individualism, or hierarchism, or egalitarianism. We hypothesized that retellings would be selectively reconstructed according to the world view of the participant, as well as tuned to the audience's world view. We assessed the cognitive structure of the recollected story, and, using methods from computational text analysis, we computed similarities among retellings and the original narrative, and among retellings and world views. Results suggest that (i) retellings become less accurate over time, (ii) retelling to an audience with an explicit world view leads to more strongly filtered retellings than recalling without a specified audience, but the filter operates in a non-specific manner with respect to world views, (iii) the cognitive structure of the recollected story shows small but systematic differences concerning the link between story problem and solution as a function of the participant's and the audience's world view. No interaction was found between the world view of the participant and that of the audience. Results emphasize the role of world views in communicating climate change, and might help to better understand phenomena such as polarization and echo chamber effects.

RevDate: 2019-05-27

Chersich M (2019)

Will global warming undo the hard-won gains of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV?.

South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde, 109(5):287-288.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Wilcox BA, Echaubard P, de Garine-Wichatitsky M, et al (2019)

Vector-borne disease and climate change adaptation in African dryland social-ecological systems.

Infectious diseases of poverty, 8(1):36 pii:10.1186/s40249-019-0539-3.

BACKGROUND: Drylands, which are among the biosphere's most naturally limiting and environmentally variable ecosystems, constitute three-quarters of the African continent. As a result, environmental sustainability and human development along with vector-borne disease (VBD) control historically have been especially challenging in Africa, particularly in the sub-Saharan and Sahelian drylands. Here, the VBD burden, food insecurity, environmental degradation, and social vulnerability are particularly severe. Changing climate can exacerbate the legion of environmental health threats in Africa, the social dimensions of which are now part of the international development agenda. Accordingly, the need to better understand the dynamics and complex coupling of populations and environments as exemplified by drylands is increasingly recognized as critical to the design of more sustainable interventions.

MAIN BODY: This scoping review examines the challenge of vector-borne disease control in drylands with a focus on Africa, and the dramatic, ongoing environmental and social changes taking place. Dryland societies persisted and even flourished in the past despite changing climates, extreme and unpredictable weather, and marginal conditions for agriculture. Yet intrusive forces largely out of the control of traditional dryland societies, along with the negative impacts of globalization, have contributed to the erosion of dryland's cultural and natural resources. This has led to the loss of resilience underlying the adaptive capacity formerly widely exhibited among dryland societies. A growing body of evidence from studies of environmental and natural resource management demonstrates how, in light of dryland system's inherent complexity, these factors and top-down interventions can impede sustainable development and vector-borne disease control. Strengthening adaptive capacity through community-based, participatory methods that build on local knowledge and are tailored to local ecological conditions, hold the best promise of reversing current trends.

CONCLUSIONS: A significant opportunity exists to simultaneously address the increasing threat of vector-borne diseases and climate change through methods aimed at strengthening adaptive capacity. The integrative framework and methods based on social-ecological systems and resilience theory offers a novel set of tools that allow multiple threats and sources of vulnerability to be addressed in combination. Integration of recent advances in vector borne disease ecology and wider deployment of these tools could help reverse the negative social and environmental trends currently seen in African drylands.

RevDate: 2019-06-03

Haque U, da Silva PF, Devoli G, et al (2019)

The human cost of global warming: Deadly landslides and their triggers (1995-2014).

The Science of the total environment, 682:673-684 pii:S0048-9697(19)31421-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Worldwide, landslides incur catastrophic and significant economic and human losses. Previous studies have characterized the patterns in landslides' fatalities, from all kinds of triggering causes, at a continental or global scale, but they were based on data from periods of <10 years. The research herein presented hypothesizes that climate change associated with extreme rainfall and population distribution is contributing to a higher number of deadly landslides worldwide. This study maps and identified deadly landslides in 128 countries and it encompasses their role, for a 20 years' period from January/1995 to December/2014, considered representative for establishing a relationship between landslides and their meteorological triggers. A database of georeferenced landslides, their date, and casualties' information, duly validated, was implemented. A hot spot analysis for the daily record of landslide locations was performed, as well as a percentile-based approach to evaluate the trend of extreme rainfall events for each occurrence. The relationship between casualty, population distribution, and rainfall was also evaluated. For 20 years, 3876 landslides caused a total of 163,658 deaths and 11,689 injuries globally. They occurred most frequently between June and December in the Northern Hemisphere, and between December and February in the Southern Hemisphere. A significant global rise in the number of deadly landslides and hotspots across the studied period was observed. Analysis of daily rainfall confirmed that more than half of the events were in areas exposed to the risk of extreme rainfall. The relationships established between extreme rainfall, population distribution, seasonality, and landslides provide a useful basis for efforts to model the adverse impacts of extreme rainfall due to climate change and human activities and thus contribute towards a more resilient society.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Woodward A, Baumgartner J, Ebi KL, et al (2019)

Population health impacts of China's climate change policies.

Environmental research, 175:178-185 pii:S0013-9351(19)30278-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Rapid and wide-ranging reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required to meet the climate targets agreed upon at the 2015 Paris climate conference. There will be significant transition risks for health, livelihoods, and ecosystems associated with large-scale mitigation, but also opportunities. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts, positive and negative, of climate policies on population health in China. We review the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) that China took to the Paris meeting, link commitments in the INDC to national planning documents relevant to environment and health, and search the literature for Chinese publications on health trade-offs and synergies. Synergies are evident in the measures taken to reduce local air pollution in China: controls on coal burning have materially improved local air quality and benefited health. But there may be risks to health also, depending on how policies are implemented and what safeguards are provided. To date most assessments of the health impacts of climate policies in China have been modelling studies. We recommend work of this kind is complemented by observational research to identify unexpected impacts and vulnerabilities. It will become even more important to undertake this work as emission reductions accelerate to meet the Paris climate targets.

RevDate: 2019-05-26

Rickert B, van den Berg H, Bekure K, et al (2019)

Including aspects of climate change into water safety planning: Literature review of global experience and case studies from Ethiopian urban supplies.

International journal of hygiene and environmental health pii:S1438-4639(19)30198-1 [Epub ahead of print].

In recent years, the water safety plan approach has been extended towards climate-resilient water safety planning. This happened in response to increasing insight into impacts of climate on drinking-water and required adaptation to anticipated climate change. Literature was reviewed for published guidance and case examples, documenting how to consider climate in water safety planning to support future uptake. Climate-resilient water safety plans were piloted within a project in the water supplies of Addis Ababa and Adama, Ethiopia. Case examples have been published in four of six WHO regions with a focus on urban supplies. Integration of climate aspects focused mostly on the steps of establishing the team, system description, hazard analysis and risk assessment, improvement planning and development of management procedures. While the traditional framework focuses on drinking-water quality, considering climate change augments aspects of water quantity. Therefore, other factors affecting water quantity such as population development and demand of other sectors need to be considered as well. Local climate information and tools should be employed as a significant success factor for future uptake. Such information should be incorporated as it becomes available, and may - depending on the setting - be incrementally integrated into existing water safety plans or used to develop new ones.

RevDate: 2019-06-03

Onozuka D, Gasparrini A, Sera F, et al (2019)

Future projections of temperature-related excess out-of-hospital cardiac arrest under climate change scenarios in Japan.

The Science of the total environment, 682:333-339 pii:S0048-9697(19)32235-1 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have reported associations between global climate change and mortality. However, future projections of temperature-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) have not been thoroughly evaluated. Thus, we aimed to project temperature-related morbidity for OHCA concomitant with climate change.

METHODS: We collected national registry data on all OHCA cases reported in 2005-2015 from all 47 Japanese prefectures. We used a two-stage time series analysis to estimate temperature-OHCA relationships. Time series of current and future daily mean temperature variations were constructed according to four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using five general circulation models. We projected excess morbidity for heat and cold and the net change in 1990-2099 for each climate change scenario using the assumption of no adaptation or population changes.

RESULTS: During the study period, 739,717 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported. Net decreases in temperature-related excess morbidity were observed under higher emission scenarios. The net change in 2090-2099 compared with 2010-2019 was -0.8% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: -1.9, 0.1) for a mild emission scenario (RCP2.6), -2.6% (95% eCI: -4.4, -0.8) for a stabilization scenario (RCP4.5), -3.4% (95% eCI: -5.7, -1.0) for a stabilization scenario (RCP6.0), and - 4.2% (95% eCI: -8.3, -0.1) for an extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5).

CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that Japan is projected to experience a substantial net reduction in OHCAs in higher-emission scenarios. The decrease in risk is limited to a specific morbidity cause, and a broader assessment within climate change scenarios should consider other direct and indirect impacts.

RevDate: 2019-06-03

Areia NP, Intrigliolo D, Tavares A, et al (2019)

The role of media between expert and lay knowledge: A study of Iberian media coverage on climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 682:291-300 pii:S0048-9697(19)32143-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Individuals play a crucial role in combating climate change, but high levels of acknowledgment and engagement are needed to lead to changes toward more sustainable behaviours. In this aspect, media plays an important role in shaping individuals' awareness about climate change. This study aims to analyse Iberian media coverage about climate change to further discuss its influence on the public's engagement with the subject. A total of 449 news were collected from Iberian newspapers. Their characteristics were analysed through quantitative content analysis. Data shows important journalistic bias toward a national framing, mainly focusing on drought and its impact on agriculture. The debate is focused on technological and political discourses. The gaps found on the Iberian media coverage may contribute to public's low levels of acknowledgement and engagement, not enhancing the possibility of change in individuals' behaviours for more sustainable actions.

RevDate: 2019-06-04

Samah AA, Shaffril HAM, MF Fadzil (2019)

Comparing adaptation ability towards climate change impacts between the youth and the older fishermen.

The Science of the total environment, 681:524-532.

In recent years, a considerable amount of studies published locally which focused on the influence of age on climate change ability. Accordingly, this has driven the present study to achieve its main objective which is to compare the adaptation ability between youth and older fishermen. The current research is quantitative in nature; hence, a survey was conducted on a total of 259 youth and older fishermen residing in different states of Malaysia, namely Pulau Pinang, Terengganu, Johor, and Kedah. The present study managed to conclude a unique and important result which stated that youth and older fishermen within the context of Malaysia have an equally strong adaptation ability. In regard to this matter, a number of recommendations were presented at the end of this paper with the hope that it can act as a basis for future scholars to conduct more climate change related studies.

RevDate: 2019-06-03

Green FB, East AG, CJ Salice (2019)

Will temperature increases associated with climate change potentiate toxicity of environmentally relevant concentrations of chloride on larval green frogs (Lithobates clamitans)?.

The Science of the total environment, 682:282-290 pii:S0048-9697(19)32029-7 [Epub ahead of print].

An important challenge in amphibian ecotoxicology and conservation is that amphibian toxicity tests are usually focused on a single chemical while populations experience multiple, simultaneous stressors. For example, about 14 million tons of road de-icing salts are used each year in North America with NaCl accounting for 98% of total salt use and, hence, elevated chloride is an important environmental stressor to aquatic organisms, including amphibians. As well, higher temperature as a result of climate change is becoming an increasingly important environmental stressor. There are no data on the combined effects of chloride and temperature on amphibians hinders conservation efforts. We conducted field studies to characterize chloride concentrations and water temperatures in known amphibian breeding habitats and performed toxicity tests to explore impacts of these two stressors on a common anuran, the green frog (Lithobates clamitans). A 96-hour acute toxicity test was conducted to first determine a chloride LC50 (2587.5 mg Cl-/L) at a single, neutral temperature, which was used to inform the treatment levels of the sub-chronic test, which also included a temperature range. In the sub-chronic study, green frog larvae were exposed to three temperatures (18, 22, and 25 °C), and four concentrations of chloride (0, 500, 1000, and 2000 mg Cl-/L) for 35 days. At all temperatures, tadpoles exposed to 2000 mg Cl-/L had significantly higher mortality. While there was no significant effect of temperature alone on mortality, survival of tadpoles was significantly lower at 1000 mg Cl-/L at the two higher temperatures suggesting a potentiation of chloride ion toxicity with increasing temperature. Comparing toxicity results to field measurements of chloride and temperature suggests green frog tadpoles and other species with similar sensitivity are likely negatively affected. Data on additional species and populations would further increase our understanding of how salt and temperature may shape aquatic communities.

RevDate: 2019-06-03

Häder DP, PW Barnes (2019)

Comparing the impacts of climate change on the responses and linkages between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.

The Science of the total environment, 682:239-246 pii:S0048-9697(19)32035-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Aquatic and terrestrial organisms are being exposed to a number of anthropogenically-induced environmental stresses as a consequence of climate change. In addition, climate change is altering various linkages that exist between ecosystems on land and in water. Here we compare and contrast how climate change is altering aquatic and terrestrial environments and address some of the ways that the organisms in these ecosystems, especially the primary producers, are being affected by climate change factors, including changes in temperature, moisture, atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar UV radiation. Whereas there are some responses to climate change in common between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (e.g., changes in species composition and shifting geographic ranges and distributions), there are also responses that fundamentally differ between these two (e.g., responses to UV radiation). Climate change is also disrupting land-water connections in ways that influence biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions in ways that can modify how aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are affected by climate change and can influence climate change. The effects of climate change on these ecosystems are having wide-ranging effects on ecosystem biodiversity, structure and function and the abilities of these systems to provide essential services.

RevDate: 2019-05-23

Haniotis T (2019)

Opinion paper: Beef, climate change and a slice of common sense.

Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience pii:S1751731119001101 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-05-23

Lin HC, Chou LC, WH Zhang (2019)

Cross-Strait climate change and agricultural product loss.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-05166-2 [Epub ahead of print].

The structure of agricultural industries at Cross-Strait differs as climate change is considered. In fact, its influence on their agriculture and other industries vary when the impact produced by natural disasters due to climate change are faced. To estimate direct and indirect losses caused by natural disasters, this study applies Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) analysis developed by Miller and Blair (2009) to discuss the development among Cross-Strait industries as they face disaster losses. The data sources used in this article are from Lin (2013), Cross-Strait ICIO table, and the statistics of agriculture in the periods 2005-2017 for Taiwan and Mainland China. The main results from our ICIO analysis are as follows: the value-added losses caused by natural disasters mainly involve agriculture, forestry, fishery, wholesale and retail trade, animal feed, and chemical fertilizer industries. These sectors account for 87.4% in Mainland China and 94.6% in Taiwan of total separately.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Cazzolla Gatti R, Callaghan T, Velichevskaya A, et al (2019)

Accelerating upward treeline shift in the Altai Mountains under last-century climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):7678 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-44188-1.

Treeline shift and tree growth often respond to climatic changes and it is critical to identify and quantify their dynamics. Some regions are particularly sensitive to climate change and the Altai Mountains, located in Central and East Asia, are showing unequivocal signs. The mean annual temperature in the area has increased by 1.3-1.7 °C in the last century. As this mountain range has ancient and protected forests on alpine slopes, we focus on determining the treeline structure and dynamics. We integrated in situ fine-scale allometric data with analyses from dendrochronological samples, high-resolution 3D drone photos and new satellite images to study the dynamics and underlying causal mechanisms of any treeline movement and growth changes in a remote preserved forest at the Aktru Research Station in the Altai Mountain. We show that temperature increase has a negative effect on mountain tree growth. In contrast, only younger trees grow at higher altitudes and we document a relatively fast upward shift of the treeline. During the last 52 years, treeline moved about 150 m upward and the rate of movement accelerated until recently. Before the 1950s, it never shifted over 2150-2200 m a.s.l. We suggest that a continuous upward expansion of the treeline would be at the expense of meadow and shrub species and radically change this high-mountain ecosystem with its endemic flora. This documented treeline shift represents clear evidence of the increased velocity of climate change during the last century.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Zuo J, Xu J, Li W, et al (2019)

Understanding shallow soil moisture variation in the data-scarce area and its relationship with climate change by GLDAS data.

PloS one, 14(5):e0217020 pii:PONE-D-18-36767.

Quantitatively evaluating the spatiotemporal variation of soil moisture (SM) and its causes can help us to understand regional eco-hydrological processes. However, the complicated geographical environment and the scarce observation data make it difficult to evaluate SM in Northwest China. Selecting the Tarim River Basin (TRB) as a typical representative of the data-scarce area in Northwest China, we conducted an integrated approach to quantitatively assess the spatiotemporal variation of shallow soil moisture (SSM) and its responses to climate change by gathering the earth system data product. Results show that the low-value of SSM distributes in Taklamakan Desert while the high-value basically distributes in the Pamirs and the southern foothill of Tianshan Mountains, where the land types are mostly forest, grassland, and farmland. Annual average SSM of these three land types present a significant increasing trend during the study period. SM at 0-10 cm of all land types are positively correlated to precipitation in spring and autumn, and SM at 0-10 cm in the forest, grassland, and farmland are positively correlated with temperature in winter. SSM presents in-phase relation with precipitation whereas it presents anti-phase relation with temperature, with the significant resonance periods about 6-8 years and 2-3 years which mainly distribute from 1970s to early 1990s and 1960s respectively. The time lags of SSM relative to temperature change are longer than its lags relative to precipitation change, and the lags vary from different land types.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Kovaleski AP, M Baseggio (2019)

Is increased corn yield really the silver lining of climate change?.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(21):10206-10208.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

de Oliveira UDR, Gomes PB, Silva Cordeiro RT, et al (2019)

Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential habitat of an endangered Brazilian endemic coral: Discussion about deep sea refugia.

PloS one, 14(5):e0211171 pii:PONE-D-18-36857.

Climate and environmental conditions are determinant for coral distribution and their very existence. When changes in such conditions occur, their effects on distribution can be predicted through species distribution models, anticipating suitable habitats for the subsistence of species. Mussismilia harttii is one of the most endangered Brazilian endemic reef-building corals, and in increasing risk of extinction. Herein, species distribution models were used to determine the present and future potential habitats for M. harttii. Estimations were made through the maximum entropy approach, predicting suitable habitat losses and gains by the end of the 21st century. For this purpose, species records published in the last 20 years and current and future environmental variables were correlated. The best models were chosen according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and evaluated through the partial ROC (AUCratio), a new approach which uses independent occurrence data. Both approaches showed that the models performed satisfactorily in predicting potential habitat areas for the species. Future projections were made using the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2100, with different levels of greenhouse gas emission. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to model the Future Potential Habitat (FPH) of M. harttii in two different scenarios: stabilization of emissions (RCP 4.5) and increase of emissions (RCP 8.5). According to the results, shallow waters to the south of the study area concentrate most of the current potential habitats for the species. However, in future scenarios, there was a loss of suitable areas in relation to the Current Potential Habitat (RCP 4.5 46% and RCP 8.5 59%), whereas there is a southward shift of the suitable areas. In all scenarios of FPH, the temperature was the variable with the greatest contribution to the models (> 35%), followed by the current velocity (> 33%) and bathymetry (>29%). In contrast, there is an increase of deep (50-75 m) suitable areas FPH scenarios, mainly in the southern portion of its distribution, at Abrolhos Bank (off Espirito Santo State). These deeper sites might serve as refugia for the species in global warming scenarios. Coral communities at such depths would be less susceptible to impacts of climate change on temperature and salinity. However, the deep sea is not free from human impacts and measures to protect deeper ecosystems should be prioritized in environmental policies for Brazilian marine conservation, especially the Abrolhos Bank, due to its importance for M. harttii.

RevDate: 2019-05-21

Azzurro E, Sbragaglia V, Cerri J, et al (2019)

Climate change, biological invasions, and the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes: A large-scale survey based on local ecological knowledge.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and biological invasions are rapidly reshuffling species distribution, restructuring the biological communities of many ecosystems worldwide. Tracking these transformations in the marine environment is crucial, but our understanding of climate change effects and invasive species dynamics is often hampered by the practical challenge of surveying large geographical areas. Here, we focus on the Mediterranean Sea, a hot spot for climate change and biological invasions to investigate recent spatiotemporal changes in fish abundances and distribution. To this end, we accessed the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of small-scale and recreational fishers, reconstructing the dynamics of fish perceived as "new" or increasing in different fishing areas. Over 500 fishers across 95 locations and nine different countries were interviewed, and semiquantitative information on yearly changes in species abundance was collected. Overall, 75 species were mentioned by the respondents, mostly warm-adapted species of both native and exotic origin. Respondents belonging to the same biogeographic sectors described coherent spatial and temporal patterns, and gradients along latitudinal and longitudinal axes were revealed. This information provides a more complete understanding of the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes and it also demonstrates that adequately structured LEK methodology might be applied successfully beyond the local scale, across national borders and jurisdictions. Acknowledging this potential through macroregional coordination could pave the way for future large-scale aggregations of individual observations, increasing our potential for integrated monitoring and conservation planning at the regional or even global level. This might help local communities to better understand, manage, and adapt to the ongoing biotic transformations driven by climate change and biological invaders.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Gong H, Liu H, Jiao F, et al (2019)

Pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise on the future distribution of Spartina alterniflora along the Chinese coast.

Ecology and evolution, 9(9):5380-5391 pii:ECE35129.

Aim: Global change seriously threatens the salt marsh ecosystem, while it remains unclear how S. will respond to climate change and sea level rise. Here, we investigated interactions among variables and identified the impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and their interactions on the distribution of Spartina alterniflora.

Location: Northern Chinese coast and Southern Chinese coast.

Taxon: Spartina alterniflora Loisel.

Methods: With global sensitivity analysis, we determined interactions among variables and their relative importance to the distribution of S. alterniflora. Integrating the Venn's four-set diagram, we built ecological niche models under current and three future scenarios to identify pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise on the distribution of S. alterniflora.

Results: Mean diurnal range (Bio02) and Elevation were the two most critical variables controlling the distribution of S. alterniflora on the Chinese coast, and interactions among variables of the northern coast were much greater than that of the southern coast. Habitats change was mainly caused by pure effects of climate change, except habitats reduction on the southern coast. Pure effects of sea level rise were low, but it can influence habitats change through shared and coupling effects from complex interactions with climate change. Interactions of climate change and sea level rise can drive habitats change, and the changed habitats caused by shared and coupling effects were mainly distributed the areas near the landward side.

Main conclusions: Our research suggests paying attention to interactions among variables when calculating the relative importance of explanatory variables. Identifying pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise for the distribution of S. alterniflora will provide scientific references for assessing the risk of similar coastal species.

RevDate: 2019-06-10

Jia SW, ML Zhang (2019)

Pleistocene climate change and phylogeographic structure of the Gymnocarpos przewalskii (Caryophyllaceae) in the northwest China: Evidence from plastid DNA, ITS sequences, and Microsatellite.

Ecology and evolution, 9(9):5219-5235 pii:ECE35113.

Northwestern China has a wealth of endemic species, which has been hypothesized to be affected by the complex paleoclimatic and paleogeographic history during Quaternary. In this paper, we used Gymnocarpos przewalskii as a model to address the evolutionary history and current population genetic structure of species in northwestern China. We employed two chloroplast DNA fragments (rps16 and psbB-psbI), one nuclear DNA fragment (ITS), and simple sequence repeat (SSRs) to investigate the spatial genetic pattern of G. przewalskii. High genetic diversity (cpDNA: hS = 0.330, hT = 0.866; ITS: hS = 0.458, hT = 0.872) was identified in almost all populations, and most of the population have private haplotypes. Moreover, multimodal mismatch distributions were observed and estimates of Tajima's D and Fu's FS tests did not identify significantly departures from neutrality, indicating that recent expansion of G. przewalskii was rejected. Thus, we inferred that G. przewalskii survived generally in northwestern China during the Pleistocene. All data together support the genotypes of G. przewalskii into three groups, consistent with their respective geographical distributions in the western regions-Tarim Basin, the central regions-Hami Basin and Hexi Corridor, and the eastern regions-Alxa Desert and Wulate Prairie. Divergence among most lineages of G. przewalskii occurred in the Pleistocene, and the range of potential distributions is associated with glacial cycles. We concluded that climate oscillation during Pleistocene significantly affected the distribution of the species.


RJR Experience and Expertise


Robbins holds BS, MS, and PhD degrees in the life sciences. He served as a tenured faculty member in the Zoology and Biological Science departments at Michigan State University. He is currently exploring the intersection between genomics, microbial ecology, and biodiversity — an area that promises to transform our understanding of the biosphere.


Robbins has extensive experience in college-level education: At MSU he taught introductory biology, genetics, and population genetics. At JHU, he was an instructor for a special course on biological database design. At FHCRC, he team-taught a graduate-level course on the history of genetics. At Bellevue College he taught medical informatics.


Robbins has been involved in science administration at both the federal and the institutional levels. At NSF he was a program officer for database activities in the life sciences, at DOE he was a program officer for information infrastructure in the human genome project. At the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, he served as a vice president for fifteen years.


Robbins has been involved with information technology since writing his first Fortran program as a college student. At NSF he was the first program officer for database activities in the life sciences. At JHU he held an appointment in the CS department and served as director of the informatics core for the Genome Data Base. At the FHCRC he was VP for Information Technology.


While still at Michigan State, Robbins started his first publishing venture, founding a small company that addressed the short-run publishing needs of instructors in very large undergraduate classes. For more than 20 years, Robbins has been operating The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project, a web site dedicated to the digital publishing of critical works in science, especially classical genetics.


Robbins is well-known for his speaking abilities and is often called upon to provide keynote or plenary addresses at international meetings. For example, in July, 2012, he gave a well-received keynote address at the Global Biodiversity Informatics Congress, sponsored by GBIF and held in Copenhagen. The slides from that talk can be seen HERE.


Robbins is a skilled meeting facilitator. He prefers a participatory approach, with part of the meeting involving dynamic breakout groups, created by the participants in real time: (1) individuals propose breakout groups; (2) everyone signs up for one (or more) groups; (3) the groups with the most interested parties then meet, with reports from each group presented and discussed in a subsequent plenary session.


Robbins has been engaged with photography and design since the 1960s, when he worked for a professional photography laboratory. He now prefers digital photography and tools for their precision and reproducibility. He designed his first web site more than 20 years ago and he personally designed and implemented this web site. He engages in graphic design as a hobby.

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E-mail: RJR8222@gmail.com

Collection of publications by R J Robbins

Reprints and preprints of publications, slide presentations, instructional materials, and data compilations written or prepared by Robert Robbins. Most papers deal with computational biology, genome informatics, using information technology to support biomedical research, and related matters.

Research Gate page for R J Robbins

ResearchGate is a social networking site for scientists and researchers to share papers, ask and answer questions, and find collaborators. According to a study by Nature and an article in Times Higher Education , it is the largest academic social network in terms of active users.

Curriculum Vitae for R J Robbins

short personal version

Curriculum Vitae for R J Robbins

long standard version

RJR Picks from Around the Web (updated 11 MAY 2018 )