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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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Robert J. Robbins is a biologist, an educator, a science administrator, a publisher, an information technologist, and an IT leader and manager who specializes in advancing biomedical knowledge and supporting education through the application of information technology. More About:  RJR | OUR TEAM | OUR SERVICES | THIS WEBSITE

RJR: Recommended Bibliography 12 Jul 2020 at 01:49 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

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RevDate: 2020-07-11

Hastings M (2020)

Climate Change Impact and the Role of the Emergency Nurse.

Journal of emergency nursing, 46(4):407-409.

RevDate: 2020-07-10

Bogdziewicz M, Kelly D, Tanentzap AJ, et al (2020)

Climate Change Strengthens Selection for Mast Seeding in European Beech.

Current biology : CB pii:S0960-9822(20)30908-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is altering patterns of seed production worldwide [1-4], but the potential for evolutionary responses to these changes is poorly understood. Masting (synchronous, annually variable seed production by plant populations) is selectively beneficial through economies of scale that decrease the cost of reproduction per surviving offspring [5-7]. Masting is particularly widespread in temperate trees [8, 9] impacting food webs, macronutrient cycling, carbon storage, and human disease risk [10-12], so understanding its response to climate change is important. Here, we analyze inter-individual variability in plant reproductive patterns and two economies of scale-predator satiation and pollination efficiency-and document how natural selection acting upon them favors masting. Four decades of observations for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) show that predator satiation and pollination efficiency select for individuals with higher inter-annual variability of reproduction and higher reproductive synchrony between individuals. This result confirms the long-standing theory that masting, a population-level phenomenon, is generated by selection on individuals. Furthermore, recent climate-driven increases in mean seed production have increased selection pressure from seed predators but not from pollination efficiency. Natural selection is thus acting to restore the fitness benefits of masting, which have previously decreased under a warming climate [13]. However, selection will likely take far longer (centuries) than climate warming (decades), so in the short-term, tree reproduction will be reduced because masting has become less effective at satiating seed predators. Over the long-term, evolutionary responses to climate change could potentially increase inter-annual variability of seed production of masting species.

RevDate: 2020-07-10

Babin M (2020)

Climate change tweaks Arctic marine ecosystems.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 369(6500):137-138.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Prietzel J, Falk W, Reger B, et al (2020)

Half a century of Scots pine forest ecosystem monitoring reveals long-term effects of atmospheric deposition and climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

At two forest sites in Germany (Pfaffenwinkel, Pustert) stocked with mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), we investigated changes of topsoil chemistry during the recent forty years by soil inventories conducted on replicated control plots of fertilization experiments, allowing a statistical analysis. Additionally, we monitored the nutritional status of both stands from 1964 until 2019 and quantified stand growth during the monitoring period by repeated stand inventories. Moreover, we monitored climate variables (air temperature, precipitation) and calculated annual climatic water balances from 1991 to 2019. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition between 1964 and 2019 was estimated for the period 1969-2019 by combining annual deposition measurements conducted in 1985-1987 and 2004 with long-term deposition records from long-term forest monitoring stations. We investigated interrelations between topsoil chemistry, stand nutrition, stand growth, deposition, and climate trends. At both sites, the onset of the new millennium was a turning point of important biogeochemical processes. Topsoil acidification turned into re-alkalinization, soil organic matter (SOM) accumulation stopped and likely turned into SOM depletion. In the new millennium, topsoil stocks of S and plant-available phosphorus (P) as well as S and P concentrations in Scots pine foliage decreased substantially; yet age-referenced stand growth remained at levels far above those expected from yield table data. Tree P and S nutrition as well as climate change (increased temperature and drought stress) have replaced soil acidification as major future challenges for both forests. Understanding of P and S cycling and water fluxes in forest ecosystems, and consideration of these issues in forest management are important for successfully tackling the new challenges. Our study illustrates the importance of long-term forest monitoring to identify slow, but substantial changes of forest biogeochemistry driven by natural and anthropogenic global change.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Price S (2020)

The Temperature's Rising: Preparing for the Health Effects of Climate Change.

Texas medicine, 116(5):18-23.

In Texas, climate change has been blamed for contributing to the severity of several weather and health events, including the 2011 statewide drought, the 2012 outbreak of West Nile virus in Dallas, Hurricane Harvey in 2017, and the steadily increasing prevalence of vector-borne diseases like Zika and chikungunya. Here are some of the most important climate-related health problems Texas physicians can expect according to climate scientists and the physician experts Texas Medicine spoke to.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Charles K, I Stehlik (2020)

Assisted species migration and hybridization to conserve cold-adapted plants under climate change.

Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology [Epub ahead of print].

The temperature rise due to climate change is rendering many arctic and alpine plants at risk of extinction because their ability to react is outpaced by the speed of climate change. We discuss assisted species migration (ASM) and hybridization as methods to conserve cold-adapted species (or the genes thereof) and to minimize the potential perturbation of ecosystems due to climate change. ASM is the deliberate movement of individuals from their current location to where species' ecological requirements will be matched under climate projections. Hybridization refers to crossbreeding of closely related species, where for arctic and alpine plants, one parent is the threatened cold-adapted and the other its reproductively compatible, warm-adapted sibling. Traditionally, hybridization is viewed as negative and leading to a loss of biodiversity, even though hybridization has increased biodiversity over geological times. Furthermore, the incorporation of warm-adapted genes into a hybrid might be the only means for the persistence of an increasingly more maladapted cold-adapted species. If approached with thorough consideration of fitness-related parameters of the source population and the acknowledgement of the important role hybridization has played to shape the current biodiversity, ASM and hybridization could help save partial or whole genomes of key cold-adapted species at risk due to climate change with minimal negative effects on ecosystem functioning. Article Impact Statement: Assisted species migration and hybridization should be seen as positive mechanisms for saving some arctic and alpine plants, or genes thereof. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

McCann BT, Davis JM, Osborne D, et al (2020)

Quantifying climate change relevant humanitarian programming and spending across five highly disaster vulnerable countries.

Disasters [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is increasing the severity and frequency of natural hazards and associated disasters worldwide, yet there is little data tracking how and whether it is being addressed by humanitarian assistance programs. Using publicly available United Nations program data and vulnerability indexes, this study pilots a novel approach for identifying and quantifying the prevalence of climate change-related humanitarian programs from 2016-2018 in five disaster-affected countries. Funding levels of proposed and undertaken interventions were analyzed within specific programmatic sub-areas and across clusters. We found that 1.8% (99 / 5558) of projects included in humanitarian proposals reviewed by the study have a climate change-related component. Of 1361 funded projects, 40 of these projects were climate related and received funding. Methodologies piloted here for assessing and classifying climate change-related humanitarian programs could be expanded to support further tracking of humanitarian responses to climate change across operational contexts. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Anenberg SC, Bindl M, Brauer M, et al (2020)

Using Satellites to Track Indicators of Global Air Pollution and Climate Change Impacts: Lessons Learned From a NASA-Supported Science-Stakeholder Collaborative.

GeoHealth, 4(7):e2020GH000270 pii:GH2169.

The 2018 NASA Health and Air Quality Applied Science Team (HAQAST) "Indicators" Tiger Team collaboration between NASA-supported scientists and civil society stakeholders aimed to develop satellite-derived global air pollution and climate indicators. This Commentary shares our experience and lessons learned. Together, the team developed methods to track wildfires, dust storms, pollen counts, urban green space, nitrogen dioxide concentrations and asthma burdens, tropospheric ozone concentrations, and urban particulate matter mortality. Participatory knowledge production can lead to more actionable information but requires time, flexibility, and continuous engagement. Ground measurements are still needed for ground truthing, and sustained collaboration over time remains a challenge.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Louppe V, Leroy B, Herrel A, et al (2020)

Author Correction: The globally invasive small Indian mongoose Urva auropunctata is likely to spread with climate change.

Scientific reports, 10(1):11595 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-68558-2.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Lehmann J, A Possinger (2020)

Removal of atmospheric CO2 by rock weathering holds promise for mitigating climate change.

Nature, 583(7815):204-205.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Mena CS, Artz M, C Llanten (2020)

Climate change and global health: a medical anthropology perspective.

Perspectives in public health, 140(4):196-197.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Yu H, Bian Z, Mu S, et al (2020)

Effects of Climate Change on Land Cover Change and Vegetation Dynamics in Xinjiang, China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(13): pii:ijerph17134865.

Since the Silk-road Economic belt initiatives were proposed, Xinjiang has provided a vital strategic link between China and Central Asia and even Eurasia. However, owing to the weak and vulnerable ecosystem in this arid region, even a slight climate change would probably disrupt vegetation dynamics and land cover change. Thus, there is an urgent need to determine the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land-use/Land-cover (LULC) responses to climate change. Here, the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method and linear regression method (LRM) were applied to recognize the variation trends of the NDVI, temperature, and precipitation between the growing season and other seasons. Combining the transfer matrix of LULC, the Pearson correlation analysis was utilized to reveal the response of NDVI to climate change and climate extremes. The results showed that: (1) Extreme temperature showed greater variation than extreme precipitation. Both the ESMD and the LRM exhibited an increased volatility trend for the NDVI, with the significant improvement regions mainly located in the margin of basins. (2) Since climate change had a warming trend, the permanent snow has been reduced by 20,436 km2. The NDVI has a higher correlation to precipitation than temperature. Furthermore, the humid trend could provide more suitable conditions for vegetation growth, but the warm trend might prevent vegetation growth. Spatially, the response of the NDVI in North Xinjiang (NXC) was more sensitive to precipitation than that in South Xinjiang (SXC). Seasonally, the NDVI has a greater correlation to precipitation in spring and summer, but the opposite occurs in autumn. (3) The response of the NDVI to extreme precipitation was stronger than the response to extreme temperature. The reduction in diurnal temperature variation was beneficial to vegetation growth. Therefore, continuous concentrated precipitation and higher night-time-temperatures could enhance vegetation growth in Xinjiang. This study could enrich the understanding of the response of land cover change and vegetation dynamics to climate extremes and provide scientific support for eco-environment sustainable management in the arid regions.

RevDate: 2020-07-08

Berberoglu S, Cilek A, Kirkby M, et al (2020)

Spatial and temporal evaluation of soil erosion in Turkey under climate change scenarios using the Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA) model.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 192(8):491 pii:10.1007/s10661-020-08429-5.

The impacts of climate change on soil erosion are mainly caused by the changes in the amount and intensity of rainfall and rising temperature. The combination of rainfall and temperature change is likely to be accompanied by negative or positive variations in agricultural and forest management. Turkey contains vast fertile plains, high mountain chains and semi-arid lands, with a climate that ranges from marine to continental and therefore is susceptible to soil erosion under climate change, particularly on high gradients and in semi-arid areas. This study aims to model the soil erosion risk under climate change scenarios in Turkey using the Pan-European Soil Erosion Assessment (PESERA) model, predicting the likely effects of land use/cover and climate change on sediment transport and soil erosion in the country. For this purpose, PESERA was applied to estimate the monthly and annual soil loss for 12 land use/cover types in Turkey. The model inputs included 128 variables derived from soil, climate, land use/cover and topography data. The total soil loss from the land surface is speculated to be approximately 285.5 million tonnes per year. According to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report of four climate change scenarios, the total soil losses were predicted as 308.9, 323.5, 320.3 and 355.3 million tonnes for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively from 2060 to 2080. The predicted amounts of fertile soil loss from agricultural land in a year were predicted to be 55.5 million tonnes at present, and 62.7, 59.9, 61.7 and 58.1 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 respectively. This confirms that approximately 30% of the total erosion occurs over the agricultural lands. In this respect, degraded forests, scrub and arable lands were subjected to the highest erosion rate (68%) of the total, whereas, fruit trees and berry plantations reflected the lowest erosion rates. Low soil organic carbon, sparse vegetation cover and variable climatic conditions significantly enhanced the erosion of the cultivated lands by primarily removing the potential food for organisms. Finally, process-based models offer a valuable resource for decision-makers when improving environmental management schemes and also decrease uncertainty when considering risks.

RevDate: 2020-07-08

Gaind N (2019)

Climate activists turn to lawsuits to force action on global warming.

RevDate: 2020-07-08

Ray C, X Ming (2020)

Climate Change and Human Health: A Review of Allergies, Autoimmunity and the Microbiome.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(13): pii:ijerph17134814.

The impact of climate change on human health is a topic of critical importance. While only recently beginning to gain attention, it is clear that immediate action is necessary to minimize this impact. In our review, we will outline a subset of these effects in detail. We will examine how climate change has worsened respiratory allergic disease. We will discuss how climate change has altered antigen exposure, possibly disrupting antigen-specific tolerance by the immune system, leading, in turn, to an increase in the prevalence of immunologic diseases. Finally, we will explore how the loss of biodiversity related to climate change may affect the microbiome, potentially leading to dysbiosis, inflammatory, autoimmune and neurologic diseases.

RevDate: 2020-07-08

Shi Z, Huang H, Wu Y, et al (2020)

Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Crop Disaster Area in China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(13): pii:ijerph17134792.

As one of the largest agricultural countries in the world, China has always paid close attention to the sustainable development of agricultural production efficiency. However, with global climate change, extreme weather has become an exogenous factor that cannot be ignored, as it affects agricultural production. Most of the existing studies only consider the domestic natural resources and economic factors, without fully considering the external climate factors. This paper uses the super undesirable dynamic Slacks-Based Measures (SBM) under an exogenous variable model to simulate the external environmental factors by adding extreme weather days. The Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation are used to explore the regional differences in agricultural production in China. The results show that the agricultural production efficiency is higher in the eastern region, and the difference in agricultural production efficiency among the provinces in the middle and western regions is large, showing a trend of polarization. The difference in the Gini coefficient between the middle and western regions is more significant. The main contribution factor of the Dagum Gini coefficient is the inter-regional difference. The regional concentration degree of agriculture in China is decreasing, the regional distribution of agricultural water resources is more balanced, and the national regional difference gradually decreases. Finally, some suggestions are put forward, such as extreme weather control, agricultural water supply, and water-saving measures.

RevDate: 2020-07-07

Jarić I, Bellard C, Courchamp F, et al (2020)

Societal attention toward extinction threats: a comparison between climate change and biological invasions.

Scientific reports, 10(1):11085 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-67931-5.

Public attention and interest in the fate of endangered species is a crucial prerequisite for effective conservation programs. Societal awareness and values will largely determine whether conservation initiatives receive necessary support and lead to adequate policy change. Using text data mining, we assessed general public attention in France, Germany and the United Kingdom toward climate change and biological invasions in relation to endangered amphibian, reptile, bird and mammal species. Our analysis revealed that public attention patterns differed among species groups and countries but was globally higher for climate change than for biological invasions. Both threats received better recognition in threatened than in non-threatened species, as well as in native species than in species from other countries and regions. We conclude that more efficient communication regarding the threat from biological invasions should be developed, and that conservation practitioners should take advantage of the existing attention toward climate change.

RevDate: 2020-07-07

Cordes LS, Blumstein DT, Armitage KB, et al (2020)

Contrasting effects of climate change on seasonal survival of a hibernating mammal.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1918584117 [Epub ahead of print].

Seasonal environmental conditions shape the behavior and life history of virtually all organisms. Climate change is modifying these seasonal environmental conditions, which threatens to disrupt population dynamics. It is conceivable that climatic changes may be beneficial in one season but result in detrimental conditions in another because life-history strategies vary between these time periods. We analyzed the temporal trends in seasonal survival of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and explored the environmental drivers using a 40-y dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA). Trends in survival revealed divergent seasonal patterns, which were similar across age-classes. Marmot survival declined during winter but generally increased during summer. Interestingly, different environmental factors appeared to drive survival trends across age-classes. Winter survival was largely driven by conditions during the preceding summer and the effect of continued climate change was likely to be mainly negative, whereas the likely outcome of continued climate change on summer survival was generally positive. This study illustrates that seasonal demographic responses need disentangling to accurately forecast the impacts of climate change on animal population dynamics.

RevDate: 2020-07-06

Scheidl C, Heiser M, Kamper S, et al (2020)

The influence of climate change and canopy disturbances on landslide susceptibility in headwater catchments.

The Science of the total environment, 742:140588 pii:S0048-9697(20)34110-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Forests have an important regulating function on water runoff and the occurrence of shallow landslides. Their structure and composition directly influence the risk of hydrogeomorphic processes, like floods with high sediment transport or debris flows. Climate change is substantially altering forest ecosystems, and for Central Europe an increase in natural disturbances from wind and insect outbreaks is expected for the future. How such changes impact the regulating function of forest ecosystems remains unclear. By combining methods from forestry, hydrology and geotechnical engineering we investigated possible effects of changing climate and disturbance regimes on shallow landslides. We simulated forest landscapes in two headwater catchments in the Eastern Alps of Austria under four different future climate scenarios over 200 years. Our results indicate that climate-mediated changes in forest dynamics can substantially alter the protective function of forest ecosystems. Climate change generally increased landslide risk in our simulations. Only when future warming coincided with drying landslide risk decreased relative to historic conditions. In depth analyses showed that an important driver of future landslide risk was the simulated vegetation composition. Trajectories away from flat rooting Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests currently dominating the system towards an increasing proportion of tree species with heart and taproot systems, increased root cohesion and reduced the soil volume mobilized in landslides. Natural disturbances generally reduced landslide risk in our simulations, with the positive effect of accelerated tree species change and increasing root cohesion outweighing a potential negative effect of disturbances on the water cycle. We conclude that while the efficacy of green infrastructure such as protective forests could be substantially reduced by climate change, such systems also have a strong inherent ability to adapt to changing conditions. Forest management should foster this adaptive capacity to strengthen the protective function of forests also under changing environmental conditions.

RevDate: 2020-07-06

Van Norman GA, S Jackson (2020)

The anesthesiologist and global climate change: an ethical obligation to act.

Current opinion in anaesthesiology, 33(4):577-583.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Pollution and global warming/climate change contribute to one-quarter of all deaths worldwide. Global healthcare as a whole is the world's fifth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and anesthetic gases, intravenous agents and supplies contribute significantly to the overall problem. It is the ethical obligation of all anesthesiologists to minimize the harmful impact of anesthesia practice on environmental sustainability.

RECENT FINDINGS: Focused programs encouraging judicious selection of the use of anesthetic gas agents has been shown to reduce CO2 equivalent emissions by 64%, with significant cost savings. Good gas flow management reduces nonscavenged anesthetic gas significantly, and has been shown to decrease the consumption of volatile anesthetic agent by about one-fifth. New devices may allow for recapture, reclamation and recycling of waste anesthetic gases. For propofol, a nonbiodegradable, environmentally toxic agent, simply changing the size of vials on formulary has been shown to reduce wasted agent by 90%.

SUMMARY: The 5 R's of waste minimization in the operating room (OR) (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle, Rethink and Research) have proven benefit in reducing the environmental impact of the practice of anesthesiology, as well as in reducing costs.

RevDate: 2020-07-06

Falconnier GN, Corbeels M, Boote KJ, et al (2020)

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multi-model assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2 ], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N ha-1) for five environments in SSA, including cool sub-humid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot sub-humid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from two-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average rRMSE of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2 ], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2 ], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.

RevDate: 2020-07-06

Iniguez-Gallardo V, Bride I, J Tzanopoulos (2020)

Between concepts and experiences: understandings of climate change in southern Ecuador.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

For decades, researchers have worried about people's understanding of climate change. Although this understanding varies by cultural context, most studies so far have taken place in industrialised countries. Few studies have explored understandings of climate change in the global South. Through standardised questionnaires and semi-structured interviews conducted in southern Ecuador, this article explores differences between urban and rural dwellers and compares these with farmers' understandings of the causes, consequences and risks. We found urban and rural dwellers hold a similar understanding to that found in other nations, but articulated in ways that reflect their particular realities. Despite reporting firsthand experience of the agricultural effects of climate change, when prompted, farmers do not link climate change to their own experience. It is thus important to go beyond judging knowledge as correct or incorrect, and instead, incorporate local realities in the climate narrative.

RevDate: 2020-07-06

Bello-Rodríguez V, Mateo RG, Pellissier L, et al (2020)

Forecasted increase in invasive rabbit spread into ecosystems of an oceanic island (Tenerife) under climate change.

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Epub ahead of print].

The European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) is a pest and a conservation problem on many islands, where its heavy grazing pressure threatens many endemic plants with extinction. Previous studies in its native and introduced range have highlighted the high spatial variability of rabbit abundance at local and landscape scales, depending on many factors such as the existence of different habitats. Modeling of the species can be useful to better-understand spatial patterns and to prioritize actions, especially in those regions in which has become invasive. Here, we investigate the distribution of the European rabbit in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain), where the species was introduced during the XV century and has subsequently changed vegetation composition. Added to the direct effects of rabbits on vegetation, climate change could also have implications on rabbit populations, especially in the alpine ecosystem. To evaluate that, we estimated rabbit abundance in 216 plots randomly distributed on Tenerife island (61 in the alpine ecosystem), modeled the potential current spatial abundance of the species and considered how it might vary under different climate change scenarios. We associated rabbit abundance to a wide selection of abiotic, biotic and human variables expected to influence rabbit abundance on the island. We found a positive correlation between rabbit abundance and temperature and a negative correlation in the case of precipitation. Hence, according to the models' projections, climate change is expected to enhance rabbit populations in the future. Current higher densities were related to land disturbance and open areas, and a remarkable increase is expected to occur in the alpine ecosystem. Overall, we consider that this study provides valuable information for land managers in the Canary archipelago as it reveals how global warming could indirectly exacerbate the conservation problems of the endemic flora in oceanic islands.

RevDate: 2020-07-05

Durant JM, Ono K, Stenseth NC, et al (2020)

Non-linearity in interspecific interactions in response to climate change: cod and haddock as an example.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has profound ecological effects, yet our understanding of how trophic interactions among species are affected by climate change is still patchy. The sympatric Atlantic haddock and cod are co-occurring across the North Atlantic. They compete for food at younger stages and thereafter the former is preyed by the latter but climate change might affect the interaction and coexistence of these two species. Particularly, the increase of sea temperature has been shown to affect distribution, population growth and trophic interactions in marine systems. We used 33-year long time series of haddock and cod abundances estimates from two data sources (acoustic and trawl survey) to analyse the dynamic effect of climate on the coexistence of these two sympatric species in the Arcto-Boreal Barents Sea. Using a Bayesian state-space threshold model, we demonstrated that long-term climate variation, as expressed by changes of sea temperature, affected species demography through different influences on density-independent processes. The interaction between cod and haddock has shifted in the last two decades due to an increase in sea temperature, altering the equilibrium abundances and the dynamics of the system. During warm years (sea temperature over ca 4°C), the increase of the cod abundance negatively affected haddock abundance while it did not during cold years. This change in interactions therefore changed the equilibrium population size with a higher population size during warm years. Our analyses show that long-term climate change in the Arcto-Boreal system can generate differences in the equilibrium conditions of species assemblages.

RevDate: 2020-07-05

Clayton S (2020)

Climate anxiety: Psychological responses to climate change.

Journal of anxiety disorders, 74:102263 pii:S0887-6185(20)30077-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change will affect psychological wellbeing. Substantial research has documented harmful impacts on physical health, mental health, and social relations from exposure to extreme weather events that are associated with climate change. Recently, attention has turned to the possible effects of climate change on mental health through emotional responses such as increased anxiety. This paper discusses the nature of climate anxiety and some evidence for its existence, and speculates about ways to address it. Although climate anxiety appears to be a real phenomenon that deserves clinical attention, it is important to distinguish between adaptive and maladaptive levels of anxiety. A focus on individual mental health should not distract attention from the societal response that is necessary to address climate change.

RevDate: 2020-07-05

Gebrechorkos SH, Bernhofer C, S Hülsmann (2020)

Climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of a large river basin in Ethiopia using a local-scale climate modelling approach.

The Science of the total environment, 742:140504 pii:S0048-9697(20)34026-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Local-scale climate change adaptation is receiving more attention to reduce the adverse effects of climate change. The process of developing adaptation measures at local-scale (e.g., river basins) requires high-quality climate information with higher resolution. Climate projections are available at a coarser spatial resolution from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and require spatial downscaling and bias correction to drive hydrological models. We used the hybrid multiple linear regression and stochastic weather generator model (Statistical Down-Scaling Model, SDSM) to develop a location-based climate projection, equivalent to future station data, from GCMs. Meteorological data from 24 ground stations and the most accurate satellite and reanalysis products identified for the region, such as Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data were used. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impacts of the projected climate on hydrology. Both SDSM and SWAT were calibrated and validated using the observed climate and streamflow data, respectively. Climate projection based on SDSM, in one of the large and agricultural intensive basins in Ethiopia (i.e., Awash), show high variability in precipitation but an increase in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature, which agrees with global warming. On average, the projection shows an increase in annual precipitation (>10%), Tmax (>0.4 °C), Tmin (>0.2 °C) and streamflow (>34%) in the 2020s (2011-2040), 2050s (2041-2070), and 2080s (2071-2100) under RCP2.6-RCP8.5. Although no significant trend in precipitation is found, streamflow during March-May and June-September is projected to increase throughout the 21 century by an average of more than 1.1% and 24%, respectively. However, streamflow is projected to decrease during January-February and October-November by more than 6%. Overall, considering the projected warming and changes in seasonal flow, local-scale adaptation measures to limit the impact on agriculture, water and energy sectors are required.

RevDate: 2020-07-05

Jermacz Ł, Kletkiewicz H, Krzyżyńska K, et al (2020)

Does global warming intensify cost of antipredator reaction? A case study of freshwater amphipods.

The Science of the total environment, 742:140474 pii:S0048-9697(20)33996-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Global warming is a worldwide phenomenon affecting the functioning of diverse ecosystems, including fresh waters. Temperature increase affects physiology and behaviour of ectotherms due to growing energetic demands necessary to sustain increased metabolic rate. Anti-predator responses may resemble temperature-induced changes in organisms, suggesting synergism between these factors. To check how temperature shapes physiological and behavioural responses of ectotherms to predation risk, we exposed amphipods: Dikerogammarus villosus and Gammarus jazdzewskii to fish kairomones at 10, 17 or 24 °C. Animals were placed in tanks where temperature was gradually adjusted to the desired test temperature and acclimated under such conditions for 3 subsequent days. Then they were exposed to the predator cue (the Eurasian perch kairomone) for 35 min to test their acute responses. We measured metabolic rate (as respiration), antioxidant defence (CAT: catalase activity, TAS: total antioxidant status), oxidative molecules (TOS: total oxidative status), oxidative damage (TBARS: thiobarbituric acid reactive substances) and behaviour (locomotor activity). Amphipods increased respiration with raising temperature and when exposed to predation risk (all temperatures). Only G. jazdzewskii exhibited increased TOS when exposed to 24 °C or to predation risk at all temperatures. Antioxidant defence increased with raising temperature (CAT, TAS) and decreased under predation risk (CAT). Cellular damage increased in G. jazdzewskii under predation risk at 10 and 24 °C, but raised temperature itself did not generate any damage. Amphipods reduced locomotor activity at 24 °C. Thus, at elevated temperatures, amphipods minimized their cellular damage at the cost of increased antioxidant defence and lower locomotor activity (potentially disadvantageous under higher energetic demands). Under predation risk, the performance of antioxidant systems was reduced, probably due to energy allocation into anti-predatory mechanisms, leading to increased cellular damage at suboptimum temperatures. Thus, negative consequences of elevated temperature for organisms may be amplified by changes in behaviour (compromising food acquisition) and non-consumptive predator effects.

RevDate: 2020-07-05

Govere S, Nyamangara J, EZ Nyakatawa (2020)

Climate change signals in the historical water footprint of wheat production in Zimbabwe.

The Science of the total environment, 742:140473 pii:S0048-9697(20)33995-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has been posited as the biggest threat to crop productivity in agro-systems, yet its impact on the water footprints of crop production for many regions remains uncertain. This study sought to determine evidence of historical climate change (1980-2010) and its resultant impact on the blue water footprint of winter wheat production in Zimbabwe. The analysis involved assessing the impact of climate change on wheat yield and crop water requirements, the key factors determining the blue water footprint. The CROPWAT model and the global water footprint assessment (WFA) standard were used to calculate the blue water footprint. Multiple linear regression was used to correlate climate variables to wheat yield, crop water requirements and the blue water footprint. Results show a significant (p < 0.05) warming of temperatures in the country's main wheat growing areas. Crop water requirements for winter wheat decreased by 4.88%, due to positive and negative trends in humidity and wind speed respectively. Between 1980 and 2000 the coupled effects of solar radiation at anthesis and maximum temperatures in July, August and September reduced wheat yields by 6.65%. The cumulative effects of climate change on crop water requirements and wheat yields increased the blue water footprint by 4%. The results of the study suggest that climate change and agricultural management factors might be equally responsible for the increase in the blue water footprint.

RevDate: 2020-07-04

Hassanzadeh P, Lee CY, Nabizadeh E, et al (2020)

Effects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclones.

Nature communications, 11(1):3319 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-17130-7.

The movement of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly around the time of landfall, can substantially affect the resulting damage. Recently, trends in TC translation speed and the likelihood of stalled TCs such as Harvey have received significant attention, but findings have remained inconclusive. Here, we examine how the June-September steering wind and translation speed of landfalling Texas TCs change in the future under anthropogenic climate change. Using several large-ensemble/multi-model datasets, we find pronounced regional variations in the meridional steering wind response over North America, but-consistently across models-stronger June-September-averaged northward steering winds over Texas. A cluster analysis of daily wind patterns shows more frequent circulation regimes that steer landfalling TCs northward in the future. Downscaling experiments show a 10-percentage-point shift from the slow-moving to the fast-moving end of the translation-speed distribution in the future. Together, these analyses indicate increases in the likelihood of faster-moving landfalling Texas TCs in the late 21st century.

RevDate: 2020-07-04

Buse CG, R Patrick (2020)

Climate change glossary for public health practice: from vulnerability to climate justice.

Journal of epidemiology and community health pii:jech-2020-213889 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is an emerging and growing field of practice for the international public health community. As practitioners, researchers and policy-makers grapple with the local health impacts of climate change, there is an increasing need to clarify key terminology to support public health actors engage and respond in ways that promote intersectoral collaboration. This contribution introduces the public health discourse on climate change, with a particular focus on its implications for health equity. After defining key terms and existing adaptation practices, climate justice and assets-oriented inquiry into the intersectional determinants of health are discussed as future opportunities for addressing health equity in climate and health-related research and practice.

RevDate: 2020-07-03

Gu S, Zhang L, Sun S, et al (2020)

Projections of temperature-related cause-specific mortality under climate change scenarios in a coastal city of China.

Environment international, 143:105889 pii:S0160-4120(20)31844-4 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have been conducted to project temperature-related mortality under climate change scenarios. However, most of the previous evidence has been limited to the total or non-accidental mortality, resulting in insufficient knowledge on the influence of climate change on different types of disease.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to project future temperature impact on mortality from 16 causes under multiple climate change models in a coastal city of China.

METHODS: We first estimated the baseline exposure-response relationships between daily average temperature and cause-specific mortality during 2009-2018. Then, we acquired downscaled future temperature projections from 28 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Finally, we combined these exposure-response associations with projected temperature to estimate the change in the temperature-related death burden in different future decades in comparison to the 2010 s, assuming no demographic changes and population acclimatization.

RESULTS: We found a consistently decreasing trend in cold-related mortality but a steep rise in heat-related mortality among 16 causes under climate change scenarios. Compared with the 2010 s, the net change in the fraction of total mortality attributable to temperature are projected to -0.54% (95% eCI: -1.69% to 0.71%) and -0.38% (95% eCI: -2.73% to 2.12%) at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. However, the magnitude of future cold and heat effects varied by different causes of death. A net reduction of future temperature-related death burden was observed among 10 out of 15 causes, with estimates ranging from -5.02% (95% eCI: -17.42% to 2.50%) in mental disorders to -1.01% (95% eCI: -5.56% to 3.28%) in chronic lower respiratory disease. Conversely, the rest diseases are projected to experience a potential net increase of temperature-related death burden, with estimates ranging from 0.44% (95% eCI: -4.40% to 6.02%) in ischemic heart disease and 4.80% (95% eCI: -0.04% to 9.84%) in external causes.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that the mortality burden of climate change varied greatly by the mortality categories. Further investigations are warranted to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on different types of disease across various regions.

RevDate: 2020-07-03

Manzanedo RD, P Manning (2020)

COVID-19: Lessons for the climate change emergency.

The Science of the total environment, 742:140563 pii:S0048-9697(20)34085-7 [Epub ahead of print].

The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak pandemic is now a global crisis. It has caused 9+ million confirmed cases and 400,000+ deaths at the time of writing and triggered unprecedented preventative measures that have confined a substantial portion of the global population and established 'social distancing' as a new global behavioral norm. The COVID-19 crisis has affected all aspects of everyday life and work, and heavily impacted the global economy. This crisis also offers unprecedented insights into how the global climate crisis may be managed, as there are many parallels between the COVID-19 crisis and what we expect from the imminent global climate emergency. Reflecting upon the challenges of today's crisis may help us better prepare for the future. Here we compile a list, by no means comprehensive, of the similarities and differences between the two crises, and the lessons we can learn from them: (i) High momentum trends, (ii) Irreversible changes, (iii) Social and spatial inequality, (iv) Weakening of international solidarity, and (v) Less costly to prevent than to cure.

RevDate: 2020-07-03

Gildner TE, SB Levy (2020)

Intersecting vulnerabilities in human biology: Synergistic interactions between climate change and increasing obesity rates.

American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council [Epub ahead of print].

OBJECTIVES: Increasing obesity rates and accelerating climate change represent two global health challenges shaped by lifestyle change and human environmental modifications. Yet, few studies have considered how these issues may interact to exacerbate disease risk.

METHODS: In this theory article, we explore evidence that obesity-related disease and climatic changes share socio-ecological drivers and may interact to increase human morbidity and mortality risks. Additionally, we consider how obesity-climate change interactions may disproportionately affect vulnerable populations and how anthropological research can be applied to address this concern.

RESULTS: Interactions between heat stress and cardiometabolic disease represent an important pathway through which climate change and obesity-related morbidities may jointly impair health. For example, individuals with higher body fatness and obesity-related metabolic conditions (eg, type 2 diabetes) exhibit a reduced ability to dissipate heat. The risk of poor health resulting from these interactions is expected to be heterogeneous, with low- and middle-income countries, individuals of lower socioeconomic status, and minority populations facing a greater disease burden due to relative lack of resource access (eg, air conditioning). Moreover, older adults are at higher risk due to aging-associated changes in body composition and loss of thermoregulation capabilities.

CONCLUSIONS: Few policy makers appear to be considering how interventions can be designed to simultaneously address the medical burden posed by increasing obesity rates and climate change. Anthropological research is well situated to address this need in a nuanced and culturally-sensitive way; producing research that can be used to support community resilience, promote holistic well-being, and improve health outcomes.

RevDate: 2020-07-03

Paliwal R, Abberton M, Faloye B, et al (2020)

Developing the role of legumes in West Africa under climate change.

Current opinion in plant biology pii:S1369-5266(20)30054-6 [Epub ahead of print].

West Africa is faced with significant challenges from climate change, including parts of the region becoming hotter with more variable rainfall. The Sahelian region in particular is already subject to severe droughts. To address this better adapted crop varieties (such as for cowpea) are clearly a central element, a complementary one is a greater use of resilient alternative crops especially underutilized legumes particularly Bambara groundnut, African yam bean, winged bean and Kersting's groundnut. Genetic diversity of these crops conserved in genebanks and farmer's field provides an opportunity to exploit climate resilient traits using cutting-edge genomic tools and to use genomics-assisted breeding to accelerate genetic gains in combination of rapid cycle breeding strategy to develop climate-resilient cultivars for sub-Saharan Africa.

RevDate: 2020-07-02

Meza-Palacios R, Aguilar-Lasserre AA, Morales-Mendoza LF, et al (2020)

Decision support system for NPK fertilization: a solution method for minimizing the impact on human health, climate change, ecosystem quality and resources.

Journal of environmental science and health. Part A, Toxic/hazardous substances & environmental engineering [Epub ahead of print].

Sugarcane cultivation requires correct fertilizer rates. However, when nutrients are not available, or there is over-fertilization, the yields are significantly reduced and the environmental burden increase. In this study, it is proposed a decision support system (DSS) for the correct NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium) fertilization. The DSS consists of two fuzzy models; the edaphic condition model (EDC-M) and the NPK fertilization model (NPK-M). The DSS using parameters from soil analysis and is based on the experience of two groups of experts to avoid the bias to the reality of a single group of professionals. The results of the DSS are compared with the results of soil analysis and those of the group of experts. One hundred and sixty tests were developed in the NPK-M. The N rate shows R2=0.981 for the DSS and R2=0.963 for soil analyzes. The P rate shows R2=0.9702 for the DSS and R2=0.9183 for the soil analyzes. The K rate shows R2=0.9691 for the DSS and R2=0.9663 for the soil analyzes. Environmental results indicate that the estimated rates with the DSS do reduce the environmental impact on the tests performed.

RevDate: 2020-07-02

Marcinkowski P, D Mirosław-Świątek (2020)

Modelling of climate change impact on flow conditions in the lowland anastomosing river.

PeerJ, 8:e9275 pii:9275.

The progressive degradation of freshwater ecosystems worldwide requires action to be taken for their conservation. Nowadays, protection strategies need to step beyond the traditional approach of managing protected areas as they have to deal with the protection or recovery of natural flow regimes disrupted by the effects of future climate conditions. Climate change affects the hydrosphere at catchment scale altering hydrological processes which in turn impact hydrodynamics at the river reach scale. Therefore, conservation strategies should consider mathematical models, which allow for an improved understanding of ecosystem functions and their interactions across different spatial and temporal scales. This study focuses on an anastomosing river system in north-eastern Poland, where in recent decades a significant loss of the anabranches has been observed. The objective was to assess the impact of projected climate change on average flow conditions in the anastomosing section of the Narew River. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT software) for the Narew catchment was coupled with the HEC-RAS one-dimensional unsteady flow model. The study looked into projected changes for two future time horizons 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 using an ensemble of nine EURO-CORDEX model scenarios. Results show that low flow conditions in the anastomosing section of the Narew National Park will remain relatively stable in 2021-2050 compared to current conditions and will slightly increase in 2071-2100. Duration of low flows, although projected to decrease on an annual basis, will increase for August-October, when the loss on anastomoses was found to be the most intense. Hydraulic modeling indicated extremely low flow velocities in the anastomosing arm (<0.1 m/s) nowadays and under future projections which is preferable for in-stream vegetation development and their gradual sedimentation and closure.

RevDate: 2020-07-02

Tuyet Hanh TT, Huong LTT, Huong NTL, et al (2020)

Vietnam Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment, 2018.

Environmental health insights, 14:1178630220924658 pii:10.1177_1178630220924658.

Background: The Global Climate Risk Index 2020 ranked Vietnam as the sixth country in the world most affected by climate variability and extreme weather events over the period 1999-2018. Sea level rise and extreme weather events are projected to be more severe in coming decades, which, without additional action, will increase the number of people at risk of climate-sensitive diseases, challenging the health system. This article summaries the results of a health vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment conducted in Vietnam as evidences for development of the National Climate Change Health Adaptation Plan to 2030.

Methods: The assessment followed the first 4 steps outlined in the World Health Organization's Guidelines in conducting "Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments." A framework and list of indicators were developed for semi-quantitative assessment for the period 2013 to 2017. Three sets of indicators were selected to assess the level of (1) exposure to climate change and extreme weather events, (2) health sensitivity, and (3) adaptation capacity. The indicators were rated and analyzed using a scoring system from 1 to 5.

Results: The results showed that climate-sensitive diseases were common, including dengue fever, diarrheal, influenza, etc, with large burdens of disease that are projected to increase. From 2013 to 2017, the level of "exposure" to climate change-related hazards of the health sector was "high" to "very high," with an average score from 3.5 to 4.4 (out of 5.0). For "health sensitivity," the scores decreased from 3.8 in 2013 to 3.5 in 2017, making the overall rating as "high." For "adaptive capacity," the scores were from 4.0 to 4.1, which meant adaptive capacity was "very low." The overall V&A rating in 2013 was "very high risk" (score 4.1) and "high risk" with scores of 3.8 in 2014 and 3.7 in 2015 to 2017.

Conclusions: Adaptation actions of the health sector are urgently needed to reduce the vulnerability to climate change in coming decades. Eight adaptation solutions, among recommendations of V&A assessment, were adopted in the National Health Climate Change Adaptation Plan.

RevDate: 2020-07-02

Terzi L, Wotawa G, Schoeppner M, et al (2020)

Radioisotopes demonstrate changes in global atmospheric circulation possibly caused by global warming.

Scientific reports, 10(1):10695 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-66541-5.

In this paper, we present a new method to study global atmospheric processes and their changes during the last decade. A cosmogenic radionuclide measured at ground-level, beryllium-7, is utilized as a proxy to study atmospheric dynamics. Beryllium-7 has two advantages: First, this radionuclide, primarily created in the lower stratosphere, attaches to aerosols that are transported downwards to the troposphere and travel around the globe with the general atmospheric circulation. By monitoring these particles, we can provide a global, simple, and sustainable way to track processes such as multi-annual variation of the troposphere, tropopause heightening, position and speed of atmospheric interface zones, as well as the poleward movement and stalling patterns of jet streams. Second, beryllium-7 is a product of cosmic rays which are themselves directly linked to solar activity and the earth magnetic field. This study shows whether beryllium-7 observed concentration changes are correlated with such natural processes or independent of them. Our work confirms that major changes in the atmospheric circulation are currently ongoing, even though timeseries are too short to make climatological assessments. We provide solid evidence of significant and progressive changes of the global atmospheric circulation as well as modifications of tropopause heights over the past decade. As the last decade happened to be the warmest on record, this analysis also indicates that the observed changes are, at least to some extent, attributable to global warming.

RevDate: 2020-07-02

Nybo L, Flouris AD, Racinais S, et al (2020)

Football facing a future with global warming: perspectives for players health and performance.

RevDate: 2020-07-02

Keshvardoost S, Dehnavieh R, K Bahaadinibeigy (2020)

Climate Change and Telemedicine: A Prospective View.

RevDate: 2020-07-01

Kameg BN (2020)

Climate Change and Mental Health: Implications for Nurses.

Journal of psychosocial nursing and mental health services [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has received public health attention over the past 3 decades. It is well established that climate change is associated with myriad health issues, but less has been mentioned in public health discourse about the impacts of climate change on population mental health. The purpose of the current article is to provide an overview of the impacts of climate change on mental health, and to discuss opportunities for mental health nurses to reduce health problems related to climate change. Acute events and chronic consequences of climate change can impact mental health outcomes and contribute to depressive disorders, anxiety, and trauma-related disorders. The nursing profession must be prepared to address climate change to promote best health outcomes for individuals around the globe. It is critical that mental health nurses act as leaders in understanding and addressing climate change to improve the mental health of populations. [Journal of Psychosocial Nursing and Mental Health Services, xx(x), xx-xx.].

RevDate: 2020-06-30

da Silva-Pinto T, Silveira MM, de Souza JF, et al (2020)

Damselfish face climate change: Impact of temperature and habitat structure on agonistic behavior.

PloS one, 15(6):e0235389 pii:PONE-D-19-24418.

Oceans absorb a huge part of the atmospheric heat, leading to the rise in water temperature. Reefs are among the most affected ecosystems, where the complex behavioral repertoire of fishes is usually an indicator of environmental impacts. Here, we examined whether temperature (28 and 34°C) and habitat complexity (high and low) interact to affect the agonistic behavior (mirror test) of the dusky damselfish (Stegastes fuscus), a key species in Brazilian reefs because of its gardening capacity and territorial behavior. Higher temperatures altered basal behavior in both high and low-complexity conditions. Fish kept at 28°C under the high-complexity condition were more aggressive than those at a higher temperature (34°C) and in a low-complexity condition, which also exhibited lower dispersion. Our data show that changes in behavior of coral reef fish is associated to fluctuations in environmental conditions. Thus, it is important to implement management or conservation strategies that could mitigate global change effects.

RevDate: 2020-06-29

Kingsolver JG, LB Buckley (2020)

Ontogenetic variation in thermal sensitivity shapes insect ecological responses to climate change.

Current opinion in insect science, 41:17-24 pii:S2214-5745(20)30063-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Insects have distinct life stages that can differ in their responses to environmental factors. We discuss empirical evidence and theoretical models for ontogenetic variation in thermal sensitivity and performance curves (TPCs). Data on lower thermal limits for development (T0) demonstrate variation between stages within a species that is of comparable magnitude to variation among species; we illustrate the consequences of such ontogenetic variation for developmental responses to changing temperature. Ontogenetic variation in optimal temperatures and upper thermal limits has been reported in some systems, but current data are too limited to identify general patterns. The shapes of TPCs for different fitness components such as juvenile survival, adult fecundity, and generation time differ in characteristic ways, with important consequences for understanding fitness in varying thermal environments. We highlight a theoretical framework for incorporating ontogenetic variation into process-based models of population responses to seasonal variation and climate change.

RevDate: 2020-06-29

Heath LC, Tiwari P, Sadhukhan B, et al (2020)

Building climate change resilience by using a versatile toolkit for local governments and communities in rural Himalaya.

Environmental research, 188:109636 pii:S0013-9351(20)30529-6 [Epub ahead of print].

With the impacts of climate disruption becoming more evident there has been an increase in the uptake of climate change adaptation "toolkits" to assist local governments build community resilience and adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is increasing attention and call for practitioners to adopt proactive and participatory approaches to help in the adaptive response planning process. One such toolkit is the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCRN) Process (IAP). This is a simple but rigorous toolkit developed to help local governments in Asian cities build resilience to the impacts of climate change. This paper outlines the application of the toolkit to determine its versatility in the rural context and was trialled in the Himalayan rural enclave of Ramgad in the Indian state of Uttarakhand. Given the differences between urban and rural environments, the outcomes highlighted the need for further investigation and analysis into the process to ensure that the methodology truly reflects the nature of rural systems and their level of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Overall, the toolkit proved to be a simple but versatile toolkit to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of communities in rural Himalaya. Over 40 resilience intervention strategies were developed for the Ramgad enclave and these were prioritized according to their technical, political, social and economic feasibility.

RevDate: 2020-06-29

Chemura A, Schauberger B, C Gornott (2020)

Impacts of climate change on agro-climatic suitability of major food crops in Ghana.

PloS one, 15(6):e0229881 pii:PONE-D-20-04571.

Climate change is projected to impact food production stability in many tropical countries through impacts on crop potential. However, without quantitative assessments of where, by how much and to what extent crop production is possible now and under future climatic conditions, efforts to design and implement adaptation strategies under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Action Plans (NAP) are unsystematic. In this study, we used extreme gradient boosting, a machine learning approach to model the current climatic suitability for maize, sorghum, cassava and groundnut in Ghana using yield data and agronomically important variables. We then used multi-model future climate projections for the 2050s and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) to predict changes in the suitability range of these crops. We achieved a good model fit in determining suitability classes for all crops (AUC = 0.81-0.87). Precipitation-based factors are suggested as most important in determining crop suitability, though the importance is crop-specific. Under projected climatic conditions, optimal suitability areas will decrease for all crops except for groundnuts under RCP8.5 (no change: 0%), with greatest losses for maize (12% under RCP2.6 and 14% under RCP8.5). Under current climatic conditions, 18% of Ghana has optimal suitability for two crops, 2% for three crops with no area having optimal suitability for all the four crops. Under projected climatic conditions, areas with optimal suitability for two and three crops will decrease by 12% as areas having moderate and marginal conditions for multiple crops increase. We also found that although the distribution of multiple crop suitability is spatially distinct, cassava and groundnut will be more simultaneously suitable for the south while groundnut and sorghum will be more suitable for the northern parts of Ghana under projected climatic conditions.

RevDate: 2020-06-29

Pollastrini M, Salvatori E, Fusaro L, et al (2020)

Selection of tree species for forests under climate change: is PSI functioning a better predictor for net photosynthesis and growth than PSII?.

Tree physiology pii:5864702 [Epub ahead of print].

A Chlorophyll Fluorescence (ChlF) assessment was carried out on oak seedlings (Quercus ilex, Q. pubescens, Q. frainetto) of Italian and Greek provenance, during the years 2017 and 2018, in a common garden in central Italy planted in 2017. This trial aimed to test the relative performances of the oak species in the perspective of assisted migration as part of the actions for the adaptation of forests to climate change. The assessment of the photosynthetic performance of the tree species included the analysis of the Prompt Chlorophyll Fluorescence (PF) transient and the Modulated Reflectance (MR) at 820 nm, leaf chlorophyll content, leaf gas exchange (net photosynthesis, stomatal conductance), plant growth (i.e., height) and mortality rate after two years from the beginning of the experiment. The assessment of the performance of the three oak species was carried out "in vivo". Plants were generated by seeds and exposed to several environmental factors, including seasonal temperature changing, water availability and soil biological and physical functionality. The results of PF indicate a stable functionality of the photosynthetic system PSII (expressed with FV/FM) across species and provenances and a decline in photochemistry functionality at the I-P phase (ΔVIP) in Q. frainetto, indicating thus a decline of the content of PSI in this species. This result was confirmed by the findings of MR analysis, being the speed of reduction and subsequent oxidation of PSI (VRED and VOX) strongly correlated to the amplitude of ΔVIP. The photosynthetic rates (net photosynthesis, PN) and growth were correlated with the parameters associated with PSI content and function, rather than those related to PSII. The low performance of Q. frainetto in the common garden seem to be related to early foliar senescence with the depletion of nitrogen, due to sub-optimal climatic and edaphic conditions. Chlorophyll fluorescence allowed to discriminate populations of oak species and to individuate the less (or/and best) suitable species for future forest ecology and management purposes.

RevDate: 2020-06-30

Elsen PR, Monahan WB, Dougherty ER, et al (2020)

Keeping pace with climate change in global terrestrial protected areas.

Science advances, 6(25):eaay0814.

Protected areas (PAs) are essential to biodiversity conservation, but their static boundaries may undermine their potential for protecting species under climate change. We assessed how the climatic conditions within global terrestrial PAs may change over time. By 2070, protection is expected to decline in cold and warm climates and increase in cool and hot climates over a wide range of precipitation. Most countries are expected to fail to protect >90% of their available climate at current levels. The evenness of climatic representation under protection-not the amount of area protected-positively influenced the retention of climatic conditions under protection. On average, protection retention would increase by ~118% if countries doubled their climatic representativeness under protection or by ~102% if countries collectively reduced emissions in accordance with global targets. Therefore, alongside adoption of mitigation policies, adaptation policies that improve the complementarity of climatic conditions within PAs will help countries safeguard biodiversity.

RevDate: 2020-06-30

Dorado-Liñán I, Valbuena-Carabaña M, Cañellas I, et al (2020)

Climate Change Synchronizes Growth and iWUE Across Species in a Temperate-Submediterranean Mixed Oak Forest.

Frontiers in plant science, 11:706.

Tree species have good tolerance to a range of environmental conditions, though their ability to respond and persist to environmental changes is dramatically reduced at the rear-edge distribution limits. At those edges, gene flow conferring adaptation is impaired due to lack of populations at lower latitudes. Thus, trees mainly rely on phenotypic changes to buffer against long-term environmental changes. Interspecific hybridization may offer an alternative mechanism in the generation of novel genetic recombinants that could be particularly valuable to ensure persistence in geographically isolated forests. In this paper, we take advantage of the longevity of a temperate-submediterranean mixed-oak forest to explore the long-term impact of environmental changes on two different oak species and their hybrid. Individual trees were genetically characterized and classified into three groups: pure Quercus petraea (Matt.), Liebl, pure Q. pyrenaica Willd, and hybrids. We calculated basal area increment and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) from tree-ring width and δ13C per genetic group, respectively. Tree-growth drivers were assessed using correlation analyses and generalized linear mixed models for two contrasting climatic periods: (1880-1915, colder with [CO2] < 303 ppm; and 1980-2015, warmer with [CO2] > 338 ppm). The three genetic groups have increased radial growth and iWUE during the last decades, being the least drought-tolerant QuPe the most sensitive species to water stress. However, no significant differences were found among genetic groups neither in mean growth rate nor in mean iWUE. Furthermore, little differences were found in the response to climate among groups. Genetic groups only differed in the relationship between δ13C and temperature and precipitation during the earlier period, but such a difference disappeared during the recent decades. Climate change may have promoted species-level convergence as a response to environment-induced growth limitations, which translated in synchronized growth and response to climate as well as a tighter stomatal control and increased iWUE across coexisting oak species.

RevDate: 2020-06-28

Yildiz K, Karakaya N, Kilic S, et al (2020)

Interaction effects of the main drivers of global climate change on spatiotemporal dynamics of high altitude ecosystem behaviors: process-based modeling.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 192(7):457 pii:10.1007/s10661-020-08430-y.

Soil organic carbon and nitrogen (SOC-N) dynamics are indicative of the human-induced disturbances of the terrestrial ecosystems the quantification of which provides insights into interactions among drivers, pressures, states, impacts, and responses in a changing environment. In this study, a process-based model was developed to simulate the eight monthly outputs of net primary productivity (NPP), SOC-N pools, soil C:N ratio, soil respiration, total N emission, and sediment C-N transport effluxes for cropland, grassland, and forest on a hectare basis. The interaction effect of the climate change drivers of aridity, CO2 fertilization, land-use and land-cover change, and best management practices was simulated on high altitude ecosystems from 2018 to 2070. The best management practices were developed into a spatiotemporally composite index based on SOC-N stock saturation, 4/1000 initiative, and RUCLE-C factor. Our model predictions differed from the remotely sensed data in the range of - 64% (underestimation) for the cropland NPP to 142% (overestimation) for the grassland SOC pool as well as from the global mean values in the range of - 97% for the sediment C and N effluxes to 60% for the total N emission from the grassland. The interaction exerted the greatest negative impact on the monthly sediment N efflux, total N emission, and soil respiration from forest by - 90.5, - 82.7, and - 80.3% and the greatest positive impact on the monthly sediment C effluxes from cropland, grassland, and forest by 139.3, 137.1, and 133.3%, respectively, relative to the currently prevailing conditions.

RevDate: 2020-06-28

Contador T, Gañan M, Bizama G, et al (2020)

Assessing distribution shifts and ecophysiological characteristics of the only Antarctic winged midge under climate change scenarios.

Scientific reports, 10(1):9087 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-65571-3.

Parts of Antarctica were amongst the most rapidly changing regions of the planet during the second half of the Twentieth Century. Even so, today, most of Antarctica remains in the grip of continental ice sheets, with only about 0.2% of its overall area being ice-free. The continent's terrestrial fauna consists only of invertebrates, with just two native species of insects, the chironomid midges Parochlus steinenii and Belgica antarctica. We integrate ecophysiological information with the development of new high-resolution climatic layers for Antarctica, to better understand how the distribution of P. steinenii may respond to change over the next century under different IPCC climate change scenarios. We conclude that the species has the potential to expand its distribution to include parts of the west and east coasts of the Antarctic Peninsula and even coastal ice-free areas in parts of continental Antarctica. We propose P. steinenii as an effective native sentinel and indicator species of climate change in the Antarctic.

RevDate: 2020-06-27

Laurent L, Buoncristiani JF, Pohl B, et al (2020)

The impact of climate change and glacier mass loss on the hydrology in the Mont-Blanc massif.

Scientific reports, 10(1):10420 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-67379-7.

The Mont-Blanc massif, being iconic with its large glaciers and peaks of over 4,000 m, will experience a sharp increase in summer temperatures during the twenty-first century. By 2100, the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and hydrosphere in the Alps is expected to lead to a decrease in annual river discharge. In this work, we modelled the twenty-first century evolution of runoff in the Arve river, downstream of Mont-Blanc's French side. For the first time for this region, we have forced a hydrological model with output from an ice-dynamical glacier model and 16 downscaled climate projections, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. By 2100, under RCP8.5 (high-emission scenario), the winter discharge of the Arve river remains low but is expected to increase by 80% when compared to the beginning of the century. By contrast, the summer season, currently the most important discharge period, will be marked by a runoff decrease of approximately 40%. These changes are almost similar according to a scenario with a lower warming (RCP4.5) and are mostly driven by glacier retreat. These shifts will have significant downstream impacts on water quantity and quality, affecting hydroelectric generation, agriculture, forestry, tourism and aquatic ecosystems.

RevDate: 2020-06-26

Deng SZ, Jalaludin BB, Antó JM, et al (2020)

Climate change, air pollution, and allergic respiratory diseases: a call to action for health professionals.

Chinese medical journal [Epub ahead of print].

Rising emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have warmed the planet substantially and are also accompanied by poor air quality. The increased prevalence of allergic airway disease worldwide can be partially attributed to those global environmental changes. Climate change and air pollution pose adverse impacts on respiratory allergies, and that the mechanisms are complex and interactive. Adverse weather conditions, such as extreme temperatures, can act directly on the respiratory tract to induce allergic respiratory illnesses. Thunderstorms and floods can alter the production and distribution of aeroallergens while wildfires and dust storms increase air pollution, and therefore indirectly enhance health risks. Concentrations of particulate matter and ozone in the air have been projected to increase with climate warming and air stagnation, and the rising temperatures and CO2 increase pollen, molds, and spores, which escalate the risk of allergic respiratory diseases. The synergistic effects of extreme heat and aeroallergens intensify the toxic effect of air pollutants, which in turn augment the allergenicity of aeroallergens. With the Earth's climate change, migration of humans and plants shift the living environments and allergens of susceptible people. Urban residents are exposed to multiple factors while children are sensitive to environmental exposure. Since climate change may pose many unexpected and persistent effects on allergic respiratory diseases, health professionals should advocate for effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize its respiratory health effects.

RevDate: 2020-06-26

D'Amato G, Chong-Neto HJ, Monge Ortega OP, et al (2020)

The effects of climate change on respiratory allergy and asthma induced by pollen and mold allergens.

Allergy [Epub ahead of print].

The impact of climate change on the environment, biosphere and biodiversity has become more evident in the recent years. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases. Change in climate and the correlated global warming affects the quantity, intensity and frequency of precipitation type as well as the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, thunderstorms, floods and hurricanes. Respiratory health can be particularly affected by climate change, which contributes to the development of allergic respiratory diseasesand asthma. Pollen and mold allergens are able to trigger the release of pro-inflammatory and immunomodulatory mediators that accelerate the onset the IgE-mediated sensitizationand of allergy. Allergy to pollen and pollen season at its beginning, in duration and intensity are altered by climatechange. Studies showed that plants exhibit enhanced photosynthesis and reproductive effects and produce more pollen as a response to high atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO2).Molds which proliferation is increased by floods and rainy storms are responsible for severe asthma. Pollen and mold allergy is generally used to evaluate the interrelation between air pollution and allergic respiratory diseases, such as rhinitis and asthma. Thunderstorms during pollen seasons can cause exacerbation of respiratory allergy and asthma in patients with hay fever. A similar phenomenon is observed for molds.Measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can have positive health benefits.

RevDate: 2020-06-26

Keten A (2020)

Forensic medicine and migration relating to anti-democratic governments and climate change.

RevDate: 2020-06-26

Heath ACG (2020)

Climate change, and its potential for altering the phenology and ecology of some common and widespread arthropod parasites in New Zealand.

New Zealand veterinary journal [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change, in the form of global warming, is a current concern, and because they are influenced by weather, it is possible to predict (albeit with some uncertainty) that farming systems, livestock parasites and their hosts will change in some broadly descriptive fashion as climate changes. This review examines the on- and off-host responses to potential changes in temperature and humidity of a representative selection of arthropod ectoparasites (sheep biting louse, sheep blowflies, cattle tick, chorioptic mange mite and cat and dog fleas) that occur in New Zealand and in many other countries , and how these environmental factors can be perturbed by host manipulation. The bioclimatic preferences of the parasites are examined in relation to future broad climate parameters and how parasite life cycles, seasonality and population dynamics may be influenced. Likely adaptations of farming systems to meet climate change imperatives are briefly discussed. Collectively it is estimated that regions of New Zealand faced with warmer, wetter conditions under climate change may see an increase in flystrike and cattle tick prevalence, and perhaps an increase in the biting louse, but fewer chorioptic mange and flea infestations. In contrast, drier, warmer regions will possibly experience fewer of all ectoparasites with the exception of flea infestations. Economic effects of increases in ectoparasite prevalence, using approximate dipping costs as a model are examined, and risks posed to New Zealand by some exotic arthropod parasites with the potential to invade under climate change, are briefly outlined.

RevDate: 2020-06-25

Giesen C, Roche J, Redondo-Bravo L, et al (2020)

The impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases in Africa.

Pathogens and global health [Epub ahead of print].

Despite being one of the continents with the least greenhouse gas emissions, no continent is being struck as severely by climate change (CC) as Africa. Mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) cause major human diseases in this continent. Current knowledge suggests that MBD range could expand dramatically in response to CC. This study aimed at assessing the relationship between CC and MBD in Africa. Methods For this purpose, a systematic peer review was carried out, considering all articles indexed in PubMed, Scopus, Embase and CENTRAL. Search terms referring to MBD, CC and environmental factors were screened in title, abstract and keywords.Results A total of twenty-nine studies were included, most of them on malaria (61%), being Anopheles spp. (61%) the most commonly analyzed vector, mainly in Eastern Africa (48%). Seventy-nine percent of these studies were based on predictive models. Seventy-two percent of the reviewed studies considered that CC impacts on MBD epidemiology. MBD prevalence will increase according to 69% of the studies while 17% predicted a decrease. MBD expansion throughout the continent was also predicted. Most studies showed a positive relationship between observed or predicted results and CC. However, there was a great heterogeneity in methodologies and a tendency to reductionism, not integrating other variables that interact with both the environment and MBD. In addition, most results have not yet been tested. A global health approach is desirable in this kind of research. Nevertheless, we cannot wait for science to approve something that needs to be addressed now to avoid greater effects in the future.

RevDate: 2020-06-25

Jun SY, Kim JH, Choi J, et al (2020)

The internal origin of the west-east asymmetry of Antarctic climate change.

Science advances, 6(24):eaaz1490 pii:aaz1490.

Recent Antarctic surface climate change has been characterized by greater warming trends in West Antarctica than in East Antarctica. Although this asymmetric feature is well recognized, its origin remains poorly understood. Here, by analyzing observation data and multimodel results, we show that a west-east asymmetric internal mode amplified in austral winter originates from the harmony of the atmosphere-ocean coupled feedback off West Antarctica and the Antarctic terrain. The warmer ocean temperature over the West Antarctic sector has positive feedback, with an anomalous upper-tropospheric anticyclonic circulation response centered over West Antarctica, in which the strength of the feedback is controlled by the Antarctic topographic layout and the annual cycle. The current west-east asymmetry of Antarctic surface climate change is undoubtedly of natural origin because no external factors (e.g., orbital or anthropogenic factors) contribute to the asymmetric mode.

RevDate: 2020-06-25

Rodriguez R, P Durán (2020)

Natural Holobiome Engineering by Using Native Extreme Microbiome to Counteract the Climate Change Effects.

Frontiers in bioengineering and biotechnology, 8:568.

In the current scenario of climate change, the future of agriculture is uncertain. Climate change and climate-related disasters have a direct impact on biotic and abiotic factors that govern agroecosystems compromising the global food security. In the last decade, the advances in high throughput sequencing techniques have significantly improved our understanding about the composition, function and dynamics of plant microbiome. However, despite the microbiome have been proposed as a new platform for the next green revolution, our knowledge about the mechanisms that govern microbe-microbe and microbe-plant interactions are incipient. Currently, the adaptation of plants to environmental changes not only suggests that the plants can adapt or migrate, but also can interact with their surrounding microbial communities to alleviate different stresses by natural microbiome selection of specialized strains, phenomenon recently called "Cry for Help". From this way, plants have been co-evolved with their microbiota adapting to local environmental conditions to ensuring the survival of the entire holobiome to improve plant fitness. Thus, the strong selective pressure of native extreme microbiomes could represent a remarkable microbial niche of plant stress-amelioration to counteract the negative effect of climate change in food crops. Currently, the microbiome engineering has recently emerged as an alternative to modify and promote positive interactions between microorganisms and plants to improve plant fitness. In the present review, we discuss the possible use of extreme microbiome to alleviate different stresses in crop plants under the current scenario of climate change.

RevDate: 2020-06-25

Kodra E, Bhatia U, Chatterjee S, et al (2020)

Physics-guided probabilistic modeling of extreme precipitation under climate change.

Scientific reports, 10(1):10299 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-67088-1.

Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit decision making. Existing state-of-the art approaches for uncertainty quantification use Bayesian methods to weight ESMs based on a balance of historical skills and future consensus. Here we propose an empirical Bayesian model that extends an existing skill and consensus based weighting framework and examine the hypothesis that nontrivial, physics-guided measures of ESM skill can help produce reliable probabilistic characterization of climate extremes. Specifically, the model leverages knowledge of physical relationships between temperature, atmospheric moisture capacity, and extreme precipitation intensity to iteratively weight and combine ESMs and estimate probability distributions of return levels. Out-of-sample validation suggests that the proposed Bayesian method, which incorporates physics-guidance, has the potential to derive reliable precipitation projections, although caveats remain and the gain is not uniform across all cases.

RevDate: 2020-06-24

Konapala G, Mishra AK, Wada Y, et al (2020)

Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation.

Nature communications, 11(1):3044 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w.

Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to analyze seasonal hydroclimatic regimes by classifying global land regions into nine regimes using late 20th century precipitation means and seasonality. These regimes are used to assess implications for water availability due to concomitant changes in mean and seasonal precipitation and evaporation changes using CMIP5 model future climate projections. Out of 9 regimes, 4 show increased precipitation variation, while 5 show decreased evaporation variation coupled with increasing mean precipitation and evaporation. Increases in projected seasonal precipitation variation in already highly variable precipitation regimes gives rise to a pattern of "seasonally variable regimes becoming more variable". Regimes with low seasonality in precipitation, instead, experience increased wet season precipitation.

RevDate: 2020-06-24

Ryan EC, Dubrow R, JD Sherman (2020)

Medical, nursing, and physician assistant student knowledge and attitudes toward climate change, pollution, and resource conservation in health care.

BMC medical education, 20(1):200 pii:10.1186/s12909-020-02099-0.

BACKGROUND: Climate change and pollution generated by the health care sector impose significant public health burdens. This study aimed to assess medical, nursing and physician assistant student knowledge and attitudes regarding climate change, pollution from the health care sector, and responsibility for resource conservation within professional practice.

METHODS: In February-March, 2018, medical, nursing, and physician assistant students at Yale University (1011 potential respondents) were sent a 17-question online Qualtrics survey. Data analysis included descriptive statistics, as well as Fisher's exact test and logistic regression to assess associations between variables of interest and the personal characteristics of gender, age, geographic place of origin, school, and year in school (among medical students).

RESULTS: The response rate was 28% (280 respondents). 90% felt that physicians, nurses, and physician assistants have a responsibility to conserve resources and prevent pollution within their professional practice. 63% agreed or strongly agreed that the relationship between pollution, climate change, and health should be covered in the classroom and should be reinforced in the clinical setting. 57% preferred or strongly preferred reusable devices. 91% felt lack of time and production pressure, and 85% believed that lack of education on disease burden stemming from health care pollution, were barriers to taking responsibility for resource conservation and pollution prevention. Women and physician assistant students exhibited a greater commitment than men and medical students, respectively, to address pollution, climate change, and resource conservation in patient care and professional practice.

CONCLUSION: We found that health professional students are engaged with the concept of environmental stewardship in clinical practice and would like to see pollution, climate change, and health covered in their curriculum. In order for this education to be most impactful, more research and industry transparency regarding the environmental footprint of health care materials and specific clinician resource consumption patterns will be required.

RevDate: 2020-06-24

Tang J, Swaisgood RR, Owen MA, et al (2020)

Climate change and landscape-use patterns influence recent past distribution of giant pandas.

Proceedings. Biological sciences, 287(1929):20200358.

Climate change is one of the most pervasive threats to biodiversity globally, yet the influence of climate relative to other drivers of species depletion and range contraction remain difficult to disentangle. Here, we examine climatic and non-climatic correlates of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) distribution using a large-scale 30 year dataset to evaluate whether a changing climate has already influenced panda distribution. We document several climatic patterns, including increasing temperatures, and alterations to seasonal temperature and precipitation. We found that while climatic factors were the most influential predictors of panda distribution, their importance diminished over time, while landscape variables have become relatively more influential. We conclude that the panda's distribution has been influenced by changing climate, but conservation intervention to manage habitat is working to increasingly offset these negative consequences.

RevDate: 2020-06-23

Shankar HM, Ewart G, Garcia E, et al (2020)

COVID-19, Climate Change, and the American Thoracic Society: A Shared Responsibility.

Annals of the American Thoracic Society [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-06-23

Shiru MS, Shahid S, Dewan A, et al (2020)

Projection of meteorological droughts in Nigeria during growing seasons under climate change scenarios.

Scientific reports, 10(1):10107 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-67146-8.

Like many other African countries, incidence of drought is increasing in Nigeria. In this work, spatiotemporal changes in droughts under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were assessed; considering their greatest impacts on life and livelihoods in Nigeria, especially when droughts coincide with the growing seasons. Three entropy-based methods, namely symmetrical uncertainty, gain ratio, and entropy gain were used in a multi-criteria decision-making framework to select the best performing General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the projection of rainfall and temperature. Performance of four widely used bias correction methods was compared to identify a suitable method for correcting bias in GCM projections for the period 2010-2099. A machine learning technique was then used to generate a multi-model ensemble (MME) of the bias-corrected GCM projection for different RCP scenarios. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was subsequently computed to estimate droughts from the MME mean of GCM projected rainfall and temperature to predict possible spatiotemporal changes in meteorological droughts. Finally, trends in the SPEI, temperature and rainfall, and return period of droughts for different growing seasons were estimated using a 50-year moving window, with a 10-year interval, to understand driving factors accountable for future changes in droughts. The analysis revealed that MRI-CGCM3, HadGEM2-ES, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, and CESM1-CAM5 are the most appropriate GCMs for projecting rainfall and temperature, and the linear scaling (SCL) is the best method for correcting bias. The MME mean of bias-corrected GCM projections revealed an increase in rainfall in the south-south, southwest, and parts of the northwest whilst a decrease in the southeast, northeast, and parts of central Nigeria. In contrast, rise in temperature for entire country during most of the cropping seasons was projected. The results further indicated that increase in temperature would decrease the SPEI across Nigeria, which will make droughts more frequent in most of the country under all the RCPs. However, increase in drought frequency would be less for higher RCPs due to increase in rainfall.

RevDate: 2020-06-23

Whitt DB, MF Jansen (2020)

Slower nutrient stream suppresses Subarctic Atlantic Ocean biological productivity in global warming.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:2000851117 [Epub ahead of print].

Earth system models (ESMs) project that global warming suppresses biological productivity in the Subarctic Atlantic Ocean as increasing ocean surface buoyancy suppresses two physical drivers of nutrient supply: vertical mixing and meridional circulation. However, the quantitative sensitivity of productivity to surface buoyancy is uncertain and the relative importance of the physical drivers is unknown. Here, we present a simple predictive theory of how mixing, circulation, and productivity respond to increasing surface buoyancy in 21st-century global warming scenarios. With parameters constrained by observations, the theory suggests that the reduced northward nutrient transport, owing to a slower ocean circulation, explains the majority of the reduced productivity in a warmer climate. The theory also informs present-day biases in a set of ESM simulations as well as the physical underpinnings of their 21st-century projections. Hence, this theoretical understanding can facilitate the development of improved 21st-century projections of marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems.

RevDate: 2020-06-23

Prasopdee S, Kulsantiwong J, Sathavornmanee T, et al (2020)

The effects of temperature and salinity on the longevity of Opisthorchis viverrini cercariae: a climate change concern.

Journal of helminthology, 94:e165 pii:S0022149X20000498.

Research on the effects of environmental factors influenced by climate change on parasite transmissibility is an area garnering recent attention worldwide. However, there is still a lack of studies on the life cycle of Opisthorchis viverrini, a carcinogenic trematode found in countries of the Lower Mekong subregion of Lao PDR, Cambodia, Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand. To evaluate the influences of environmental factors water temperature and salinity on the transmissibility of the liver fluke O. viverrini through cercarial stage, longevity of O. viverrini cercaria was examined at different experimental temperatures (22°C, 30°C and 38°C) and salinities (2.5 parts per thousand (PPT), 3.75 PPT and 5 PPT). The results reveal that different temperatures have statistically significant effects on cercarial longevity. The cercariae exhibited a thermostability zone ranging between 22°C and 30°C. Cercarial longevity was significantly shortened when water temperatures reached 38°C. Salinity also plays a key role in cercarial longevity, with cercarial survival significantly shorter at a salinity of 3.75 PPT than at 2.5 PPT and 5 PPT. A combined analysis of salinity and temperature revealed unique trends in cercarial longevity. At all experimental salinities, cercarial longevity was lowest when incubated in 38°C, but statistically significant from cercarial longevity at temperatures of 22°C and 30°C, and salinities of 2.5 PPT and 5 PPT. The results suggest that higher temperatures negatively impact parasite longevity. This reflects that O. viverrini transmission patterns may be impacted by changes in water temperature and salinity resulting from climate change.

RevDate: 2020-06-23

Détrée C, Navarro JM, Font A, et al (2020)

Species vulnerability under climate change: Study of two sea urchins at their distribution margin.

The Science of the total environment, 728:138850.

In order to develop powerful predictions on the impact of climate change on marine organisms, it is critical to understand how abiotic drivers such as temperature can directly and indirectly affect marine organisms. Here, we evaluated and compared the physiological vulnerability of the leading-edge populations of two species of sea urchins Loxechinus albus and Pseudechinus magellanicus in response to predicted ocean warming and food limitation. After exposing sea urchins to a 60-day experimental period to contrasting temperature (1 °C, 7 °C and 14 °C corresponding respectively to the actual average summer temperature in Antarctica, the control treatment temperature and the predicted future temperature in the Strait of Magellan) and diet levels (ad libitum or food limitation), sea urchin stress tolerance was assessed. Sea urchins' physiology was measured at the organismal and sub-cellular level by studying the organisms energy balance (behavior, growth, gonad index, ingestion rate, O2 uptake, energy reserves) and the expression of genes associated with aerobic metabolism. Our results showed that at their distribution edge, and despite their distinct geographical repartition, both species might be resilient to ocean warming. However, the combination of ocean warming and food limitation reduced the stress tolerance of sea urchins. In a warming ocean, another strategy could be to migrate toward the pole to a cooler environment but incubation at 1 °C resulted in a diminution of both species' aerobic scope. Overall, if these engineer species are unable to acclimate to food limitation under future climate, population fitness could be affected with ecological and economic consequences.

RevDate: 2020-06-23

Smith W, Grant B, Qi Z, et al (2020)

Towards an improved methodology for modelling climate change impacts on cropping systems in cool climates.

The Science of the total environment, 728:138845.

Assessment of the impact of climate change on agricultural sustainability requires a robust full system estimation of the interdependent soil-plant-atmospheric processes coupled with dynamic farm management. The simplification or exclusion of major feedback mechanisms in modelling approaches can significantly affect model outcomes. Using a biogeochemical model, DNDCv.CAN, at three case-study locations in Canada, we quantified the impact of using commonly employed simplified modelling approaches on model estimates of crop yields, soil organic carbon (SOC) change and nitrogen (N) losses across 4 time periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). These approaches included using climate with only temperature and precipitation data, annual re-initialization of soil status, fixed fertilizer application rates, and fixed planting dates. These simplified approaches were compared to a more comprehensive reference approach that used detailed climate drivers, dynamic planting dates, dynamic fertilizer rates, and had a continuous estimation of SOC, N and water budgets. Alternative cultivars and rotational impacts were also investigated. At the semi-arid location, the fixed fertilizer, fixed planting date, and soil re-initialization approaches reduced spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield estimates by 40%, 25%, and 29%, respectively, in the 2071-2100 period relative to the comprehensive reference approach. At both sub-humid locations, the re-initialization of soil status significantly altered SOC levels, N leaching and N runoff in all three time periods from 2011 to 2100. At all locations, SOC levels were impacted when using simplified approaches relative to the reference approach, except for the fixed fertilizer approach at the sub-humid locations. Results indicate that simplified approaches often lack the necessary characterization of the feedbacks between climate, soil, crop and management that are critical for accurately assessing crop system behavior under future climate. We recommend that modellers improve their capabilities of simulating expected changes in agronomy over time and employ tools that consider robust soil-plant-atmospheric processes.

RevDate: 2020-06-22

Terblanche JS, AA Hoffmann (2020)

Validating measurements of acclimation for climate change adaptation.

Current opinion in insect science, 41:7-16 pii:S2214-5745(20)30051-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Acclimation and other forms of plasticity that can increase stress resistance feature strongly in discussions surrounding climate change impacts or vulnerability projections of insects and other ectotherms. There is interest in compiling databases for assessing the adequacy of acclimation for dealing with climate change. Here, we argue that the nature of acclimation is context dependent and therefore that estimates summarised across studies, especially those that have assayed stress using diverse methods, are limited in their utility when applied as a standardized metric or to a single general context such as average climate warming. Moreover, the dynamic nature of tolerances and acclimation drives important variation that is quickly obscured through many summary statistics or even in effect size analyses; retaining a strong focus on the temporal-level, population-level and treatment-level variance in forecasting climate change impacts on insects is essential. We summarise recent developments within the context of climate change and propose how future studies might validate the role of acclimation by integration across field studies and mechanistic modelling. Despite arguments to the contrary, to date no studies have convincingly demonstrated an important role for acclimation in recent climate change adaptation of insects. Paramount to these discussions is i) developing a strong conceptual framework for acclimation in the focal trait(s), ii) obtaining novel empirical data dissecting the fitness benefits and consequences of acclimation across diverse contexts and timescales, with iii) better coverage of under-represented geographic regions and taxa.

RevDate: 2020-06-22

Robert MA, Stewart-Ibarra AM, EL Estallo (2020)

Climate change and viral emergence: evidence from Aedes-borne arboviruses.

Current opinion in virology, 40:41-47 pii:S1879-6257(20)30022-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is leading to increases in global temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns, both of which are contributing to the expansion of mosquito-borne arboviruses and the populations of the mosquitos that vector them. Herein, we review recent evidence of emergence and expansion of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitos that has been driven in part by environmental changes. We present as a case study of recent work from Córdoba, Argentina, where dengue has been actively emerging in the past decade. We review recent empirical and modeling studies that aim to understand the impact of climate on future expansion of arboviruses, and we highlight gaps in empirical studies linking climate to arbovirus transmission at regional levels.

RevDate: 2020-06-22

Di Giorgi E, Michielin P, D Michielin (2020)

Perception of climate change, loss of social capital and mental health in two groups of migrants from African countries.

Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita, 56(2):150-156.

INTRODUCTION: The negative effects of climate change affect community subsistence models, thus determining an increase in social conflicts, a loosening of social capital, an increase in the incidence of traumas and diseases, and a push for migration.

AIM: This exploratory research compares the perception of climate change, as well as the reduction of social capital and mental health, in two groups of migrants arriving in Italy from African countries with high or extreme vulnerability to climate change.

METHODS: The perception of climate change and the degree of social capital were assessed with a semi-structured interview. The psychological condition was investigated through a clinical psychological interview and tests.

RESULTS: The group of migrants coming from countries with extreme exposure to climate change perceive greater vulnerability of their country and reports a greater loss of social capital. The level of education does not seem to affect the ability to perceive climate change. In the entire sample, there is a strong correlation between the perception of change and the loss of social capital, and between the loss of social capital and emotional disorders.

CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that actions to preserve the social capital of a community strongly exposed to climate change can mitigate the impact of change on mental health.

RevDate: 2020-06-20

Gaitán E, Monjo R, Pórtoles J, et al (2020)

Impact of climate change on drought in Aragon (NE Spain).

The Science of the total environment, 740:140094 pii:S0048-9697(20)33614-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Droughts are one of the extreme climatic phenomena with the greatest and most persistent impact on health, economic activities and ecosystems and are poorly understood due to their complexity. The exacerbation of global warming throughout this century probably will cause an increase in droughts, so accurate studies of future projections at a local level, not done so far, are essential. Climate change scenarios of drought indexes for the region of Aragon (Spain) based on nine Earth System Models (ESMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) corresponding to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been generated for the first time. Meteorological Drought episodes were analysed from three main aspects: magnitude (index values), duration and spatial extent. The evolution of drought is also represented in a novel way, allowing identification, simultaneously, of the intensity of the episodes as well as their duration in different periods of accumulation and, for the first time, at the observatory level. Future meteorological drought scenarios based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) hardly show variations in water balance with respect to normal values. However, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) which, in addition to precipitation, considers evapotranspiration, shows a clear trend towards increasingly intense periods of drought, especially when considering cumulative periods and those at the end of the century. Representation of the territory of the drought indexes reflects that the most populated areas (Ebro Valley and SW of the region), will suffer the longest and most intense drought episodes. These results are key in the development of specific measures for adapting to climate change.

RevDate: 2020-06-20

Ranjbar MH, Etemad-Shahidi A, B Kamranzad (2020)

Modeling the combined impact of climate change and sea-level rise on general circulation and residence time in a semi-enclosed sea.

The Science of the total environment, 740:140073 pii:S0048-9697(20)33593-2 [Epub ahead of print].

This study provides an assessment of possible changes in the general circulation and residence time in the Persian Gulf under potential future sea-level rise and changes in the wind field due to the climate change. To determine the climate-change-induced impacts, Mike 3 Flow Model FM was used to simulate hydrodynamic and transport processes in the Persian Gulf in both historical (1998-2014) and future periods (2081-2100). Historical simulation was driven by ERA-Interim data. A statistical approach was employed to modify the values and directions of the future wind field obtained from the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) scenarios derived from CMCC-CM model of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The numerical model was calibrated and validated using measured data. Results indicated that in the historical period, residence time ranged between values of less than a month in the Strait of Hormuz and 10 years in the semi-enclosed area close to the south of Bahrain. The changes in wind field based on RCP 8.5 scenario were found to be the most disadvantageous for the Persian Gulf's capacity to flush dissolved pollutants out. Under this scenario, residence time would be 17% longer than that of historical one. This is mainly because the change in the wind field is large enough to overwhelm general circulation, showing a relationship between the residence time and the residual circulation. Impact of change in the wind field according to RCP 4.5 scenario on the modeled residence time is negligible. The numerical outputs also showed that the sea-level rise would slightly decrease the current velocity, resulting in a negligible increase in residence time. The findings of this study are intended to support establishing climate-adaptation management plans for coastal zones of the studied area in line with sustainable development goals.

RevDate: 2020-06-20

Zilli M, Scarabello M, Soterroni AC, et al (2020)

The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture.

The Science of the total environment, 740:139384 pii:S0048-9697(20)32901-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Brazilian agricultural production provides a significant fraction of the food consumed globally, with the country among the top exporters of soybeans, sugar, and beef. However, current advances in Brazilian agriculture can be directly impacted by climate change and resulting biophysical effects. Here, we quantify these impacts until 2050 using GLOBIOM-Brazil, a global partial equilibrium model of the competition for land use between agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy that includes various refinements reflecting Brazil's specificities. For the first time, projections of future agricultural areas and production are based on future crop yields provided by two Global Gridded Crop Models (EPIC and LPJmL). The climate change forcing is included through changes in climatic variables projected by five Global Climate Models in two emission pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) participating in the ISIMIP initiative. This ensemble of twenty scenarios permits accessing the robustness of the results. When compared to the baseline scenario, GLOBIOM-Brazil scenarios suggest a decrease in soybeans and corn production, mainly in the Matopiba region in the Northern Cerrado, and southward displacement of agricultural production to near-subtropical and subtropical regions of the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biomes.

RevDate: 2020-06-20

Černý J, Pokorný R, Vejpustková M, et al (2020)

Air temperature is the main driving factor of radiation use efficiency and carbon storage of mature Norway spruce stands under global climate change.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-020-01941-w [Epub ahead of print].

Plant growth is affected by light availability, light capture, and the efficiency of light energy utilisation within the photosynthetic uptake processes. The radiation use efficiency (RUE) of four even-aged, fully stocked mature Norway spruce stands along a temperature, precipitation, and altitudinal gradient of the Czech Republic was investigated. A new straightforward, methodological approach involving an analysis of digital hemispherical photographs for RUE estimation was applied. The highest annual RUE value (0.72 g MJ-1) was observed in the stand characterised by the lowest mean annual air temperature, the highest annual amount of precipitation, located at the highest altitude, and with the lowest site index reflecting site fertility. From the viewpoint of global climate change mitigation, this stand fixed 4.14 Mg ha-1 and 13.93 Mg ha-1 of carbon units and CO2 molecules into above-ground biomass, respectively. The lowest RUE value (0.21 g MJ-1) within the studied growing season was found in the stand located at the lowest altitude representing the site with the highest mean air temperature and the lowest amount of precipitation where 1.27 Mg ha-1 and 4.28 Mg ha-1 of carbon units and CO2 molecules, respectively, were fixed. From the tested meteorological variables (mean air temperature, the monthly sums of temperature, precipitation, and air humidity), RUE was only significantly dependent on air temperature. Therefore, global warming can lead to diminishing RUE and carbon sequestration in Norway spruce stands, especially at low altitudes.

RevDate: 2020-06-20

Molina C, Akçay E, Dieckmann U, et al (2020)

Combating climate change with matching-commitment agreements.

Scientific reports, 10(1):10251 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-63446-1.

Countries generally agree that global greenhouse gas emissions are too high, but prefer other countries reduce emissions rather than reducing their own. The Paris Agreement is intended to solve this collective action problem, but is likely insufficient. One proposed solution is a matching-commitment agreement, through which countries can change each other's incentives by committing to conditional emissions reductions, before countries decide on their unconditional reductions. Here, we study matching-commitment agreements between two heterogeneous countries. We find that such agreements (1) incentivize both countries to make matching commitments that in turn incentivize efficient emissions reductions, (2) reduce emissions from those expected without an agreement, and (3) increase both countries' welfare. Matching-commitment agreements are attractive because they do not require a central enforcing authority and only require countries to fulfil their promises; countries are left to choose their conditional and unconditional emissions reductions according to their own interests.

RevDate: 2020-06-20

Trebicki P (2020)

Climate change and plant virus epidemiology.

Virus research pii:S0168-1702(20)30032-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Changes in global climate driven by anthropogenic activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, have been progressively increasing and are projected to intensify. Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and temperature will have significant consequences for future food production, quality, distribution and security. The epidemiology of plant viruses will be altered in the future as a result of climate change. Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, increased temperature, changes to water availability and more frequent extreme weather events will have direct and indirect effects on plant viruses through changes in hosts and vectors. Predicted climatic changes will affect the distribution and survival of plant viruses and their vectors, which are expected to increase in many geographic regions. Furthermore, climate change can affect the virulence and pathogenicity of plant viruses, consequently increasing the frequency and scale of disease outbreaks. Thus, greater understanding of plant virus epidemiology is needed to better anticipate challenges ahead and to develop effective and robust control strategies that will aid in securing global food production for the future.

RevDate: 2020-06-20

Su CW, Naqvi B, Shao XF, et al (2020)

Trade and technological innovation: The catalysts for climate change and way forward for COP21.

Journal of environmental management, 269:110774.

Following the adaptation of the Paris Agreement at COP21, it was noted that the traditional measures of carbon emissions have several limitations; and a reliable and relevant carbon emissions measurement is important to formulate a response to the challenge of climate change. This study, therefore, explores the relationship between international trade and consumption-based carbon emissions, which is a trade adjusted indicator; and measures the outflow and the inflow of emissions through exports and imports separately. We also include technological innovation in the model to understand its impact on consumption-based carbon emissions. The results show that exports and consumption-based carbon emissions are negatively associated, and technological innovation helps reducing the adverse effect of CO2 growth. In contrast, Imports and gross domestic product are positively linked with consumption-based carbon emissions. The findings also suggest the countries which embraced the Paris Climate Agreement must focus on consumption-based carbon emissions rather than the production-based carbon emissions.

RevDate: 2020-06-20

Calderaro F, D Vione (2020)

Possible Effect of Climate Change on Surface-Water Photochemistry: A Model Assessment of the Impact of Browning on the Photodegradation of Pollutants in Lakes during Summer Stratification. Epilimnion vs. Whole-Lake Phototransformation.

Molecules (Basel, Switzerland), 25(12): pii:molecules25122795.

Water browning in lakes (progressive increase of the content of chromophoric dissolved organic matter, CDOM) has the potential to deeply alter the photodegradation kinetics of pollutants during summer stratification. Browning, which takes place as a consequence of climate change in several Nordic environments, causes the thermocline to be shallower, because higher CDOM decreases the penetration of sunlight inside the water column. Using a model approach, it is shown in this paper that pollutants occurring in the epilimnion would be affected differently depending on their main photodegradation pathway(s): almost no change for the direct photolysis, slight decrease in the degradation kinetics by the hydroxyl radicals (•OH, but the resulting degradation would be too slow for the process to be effective during summer stratification), considerable decrease for the carbonate radicals (CO3•-), increase for the excited triplet states of CDOM (3CDOM*) and singlet oxygen (1O2). Because it is difficult to find compounds that are highly reactive with CO3•- and poorly reactive with 3CDOM*, the degradation rate constant of many phenols and anilines would show a minimum with increasing dissolved organic carbon (DOC), because of the combination of decreasing CO3•- and increasing 3CDOM* photodegradation. In contrast, overall photodegradation would always be inhibited by browning when the whole water column (epilimnion + hypolimnion) is considered, either because of slower degradation kinetics in the whole water volume, or even at unchanged overall kinetics, because of unbalanced distribution of photoreactivity within the water column.

RevDate: 2020-06-19

Gong X, Chen Y, Wang T, et al (2020)

Double-edged effects of climate change on plant invasions: Ecological niche modeling global distributions of two invasive alien plants.

The Science of the total environment, 740:139933 pii:S0048-9697(20)33453-7 [Epub ahead of print].

The prediction of the potential distribution of invasive alien species is key for the control of their proliferation. This study developed ensemble niche models to explore the distribution patterns of Cecropia peltata and Ulex europaeus under baseline and future conditions, as well as the factors that regulate them. The models were based on occurrence records as well as climate, land-use and topography datasets. Climatic factors played a stronger role than land-use and topographical factors in their distribution patterns. Additionally, temperature seasonality and temperature annual range were the optimal predictor for the global distributions of C. peltata and U. europaeus, respectively. Under the baseline-RCP 8.5 scenario in 2070, significant increases in habitat suitability for C. peltata were generally detected in tropical regions, while for U. europaeus under the same condition, significant increases in habitat suitability were generally observed in west coast of South America and Europe, suggesting the impacts of climate changes on species distribution may be species specific. The contrast changes of suitable habitat areas for U. europaeus under the baseline-2.6 and 8.5 scenarios may suggest that the scenarios of climate changes may modify its distribution patterns and variations in suitable habitats. The double-edged effects of global warming on plant invasions may be a result of the scenario specific climate change and the species-specific responses to changes in climate. Our findings highlight the importance of climate change scenario specific and species-specific research on the impact of climate change on plant invasions.

RevDate: 2020-06-19

Williamson J (2020)

Nuclear war, climate change, and medical activism.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 4(6):e221-e222.

RevDate: 2020-06-19

McMichael C (2020)

Human mobility, climate change, and health: unpacking the connections.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 4(6):e217-e218.

RevDate: 2020-06-19

Gérard M, Vanderplanck M, Wood T, et al (2020)

Global warming and plant-pollinator mismatches.

Emerging topics in life sciences, 4(1):77-86.

The mutualism between plants and their pollinators provides globally important ecosystem services, but it is likely to be disrupted by global warming that can cause mismatches between both halves of this interaction. In this review, we summarise the available evidence on (i) spatial or (ii) phenological shifts of one or both of the actors of this mutualism. While the occurrence of future spatial mismatches is predominantly theoretical and based on predictive models, there is growing empirical evidence of phenological mismatches occurring at the present day. Mismatches may also occur when pollinators and their host plants are still found together. These mismatches can arise due to (iii) morphological modifications and (iv) disruptions to host attraction and foraging behaviours, and it is expected that these mismatches will lead to novel community assemblages. Overall plant-pollinator interactions seem to be resilient biological networks, particularly because generalist species can buffer these changes due to their plastic behaviour. However, we currently lack information on where and why spatial mismatches do occur and how they impact the fitness of plants and pollinators, in order to fully assess if adaptive evolutionary changes can keep pace with global warming predictions.

RevDate: 2020-06-19

Sanderson CE, KA Alexander (2020)

Unchartered waters: Climate change likely to intensify infectious disease outbreaks causing mass mortality events in marine mammals.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Infectious disease emergence has increased significantly over the last 30 years, with mass mortality events (MMEs) associated with epizootics becoming increasingly common. Factors influencing these events have been widely studied in terrestrial systems, but remain relatively unexplored in marine mammals. Infectious disease-induced MMEs (ID MMEs) have not been reported ubiquitously among marine mammal species, indicating that intrinsic (host) and/or extrinsic (environmental) ecological factors may influence this heterogeneity. We assess the occurrence of ID MMEs (1955-2018) across extant marine mammals (n = 129) in relation to key life-history characteristics (sociality, trophic level, habitat breadth) and environmental variables (season, sea surface temperature [SST] anomalies, El Niño occurrence). Our results show that ID MMEs have been reported in 14% of marine mammal species (95% CI 9%-21%), with 72% (n = 36; 95% CI 56%-84%) of these events caused predominantly by viruses, primarily morbillivirus and influenza A. Bacterial pathogens caused 25% (95% CI 14%-41%) of MMEs, with only one being the result of a protozoan pathogen. Overall, virus-induced MMEs involved a greater number of fatalities per event compared to other pathogens. No association was detected between the occurrence of ID MMEs and host characteristics, such as sociality or trophic level, but ID MMEs did occur more frequently in semiaquatic species (pinnipeds) compared to obligate ocean dwellers (cetaceans; χ2 = 9.6, p = .002). In contrast, extrinsic factors significantly influenced ID MMEs, with seasonality linked to frequency (χ2 = 19.85, p = .0002) and severity of these events, and global yearly SST anomalies positively correlated with their temporal occurrence (Z = 3.43, p = 2.7e-04). No significant association was identified between El Niño and ID MME occurrence (Z = 0.28, p = .81). With climate change forecasted to increase SSTs and the frequency of extreme seasonal weather events, epizootics causing MMEs are likely to intensify with significant consequences for marine mammal survival.

RevDate: 2020-06-19

Carroll C, RF Noss (2020)

Rewilding in the face of climate change.

Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology [Epub ahead of print].

Expansion of the global protected-area network has been proposed as a strategy to address threats from accelerating climate change and species extinction. A key step in increasing the effectiveness of such expansion is understanding how novel threats to biodiversity from climate change alter concepts such as rewilding, which have underpinned many proposals for large interconnected reserves. We reviewed potential challenges that climate change poses to rewilding and found that the conservation value of large protected areas persists under climate change. Nevertheless, more attention should be given to protection of microrefugia, macrorefugia, complete environmental gradients, and areas that connect current and future suitable climates and to maintaining ecosystem processes and stabilizing feedbacks via conservation strategies that are resilient to uncertainty regarding climate trends. Because a major element of the threat from climate change stems from its novel geographic patterns, we examined, as an example, the implications for climate-adaptation planning of latitudinal, longitudinal (continental to maritime), and elevational gradients in climate-change exposure across the Yellowstone-to-Yukon region, the locus of an iconic conservation proposal initially designed to conserve wide-ranging carnivore species. In addition to a continued emphasis on conserving intact landscapes, restoration of degraded low-elevation areas within the region is needed to capture sites important for landscape-level climate resilience. Extreme climate exposure projected for boreal North America suggests the need for ambitious goals for expansion of the protected-area network there to include refugia created by topography and ecological features, such as peatlands, whose conservation can also reduce emissions from carbon stored in soil. Qualitative understanding of underlying reserve design rules and the geography of climate-change exposure can strengthen the outcomes of inclusive regional planning processes that identify specific sites for protection.

RevDate: 2020-06-19

Turney C, Ausseil AG, L Broadhurst (2020)

Urgent need for an integrated policy framework for biodiversity loss and climate change.

RevDate: 2020-06-19

Bonebrake TC, Rezende EL, F Bozinovic (2020)

Climate Change and Thermoregulatory Consequences of Activity Time in Mammals.

The American naturalist, 196(1):45-56.

Activity times structure the thermal environments experienced by organisms. In mammals, species shift from being nocturnal to diurnal and vice versa, but the thermal consequences of variable activity patterns remain largely unexplored. Here we used theoretical thermoregulatory polygons bounded by estimates of basal metabolic rates (BMR), maximum metabolic rates (MMR), and thermal conductance (C) in small mammals to explore the metabolic consequences of exposure to global-scale daytime and nighttime temperatures. Model predictions indicated higher metabolic scope for activity for nocturnal species at low latitudes and that reduced minimum C and larger body size increased the geographic range in which nocturnality was advantageous. Consistent with predictions, within rodents nocturnal species have low C. However, nocturnal mammals tend to be smaller than diurnal species, likely reflecting the importance of additional factors driving body size. Projections of warming impacts on small mammals suggest that diurnal species could lose habitable space globally. Conversely, warming could lift cool temperature constraints on nocturnal species and increase habitable space, suggesting that a shift toward nocturnal niches might be favored in a warming world. Taken together, these findings demonstrate the importance of energetic considerations for endotherms in managing global change impacts on nocturnal and diurnal species.

RevDate: 2020-06-19

Albright K, Shah P, Santodomingo M, et al (2020)

Dissemination of Information About Climate Change by State and Local Public Health Departments: United States, 2019-2020.

American journal of public health [Epub ahead of print].

Objectives. To determine if and how state and local public health departments present information about climate change on their Web sites, their most public-facing platform.Methods. We collected data from every functioning state (n = 50), county (n = 2090), and city (n = 585) public health department Web site in the United States in 2019 and 2020. We analyzed data for presence and type of climate-related content and to determine whether there existed clear ways to find climate change information. We analyzed Web sites providing original content about climate change for explanatory or attributional language.Results. Fewer than half (40%) of state health department Web sites, and only 1.6% of county and 3.9% of city Web sites, provided clear ways to find climate change information, whether through provision of original content or links to external agencies' Web sites. Among Web sites providing original content, 48% provided no explanation of climate change causes.Conclusions. National and global public health associations have identified climate change as a public health emergency, but most state and local public health departments are not delivering that message. These departments must be better supported to facilitate dissemination of reliable, scientific information about climate change and its effects on health. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print June 18, 2020: e1-e7. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2020.305723).

RevDate: 2020-06-19

Zhang K, Liu H, Pan H, et al (2020)

Shifts in potential geographical distribution of Pterocarya stenoptera under climate change scenarios in China.

Ecology and evolution, 10(11):4828-4837 pii:ECE36236.

Climate change poses a serious threat to biodiversity. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of a species' habitat can help humans address the potential threats which may change the scope and distribution of species. Pterocarya stenoptera is a common fast-growing tree species often used in the ecological restoration of riverbanks and alpine forests in central and eastern China. Until now, the characteristics of the distribution of this species' habitat are poorly known as are the environmental factors that influence its preferred habitat. In the present study, the Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) algorithm and the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP) were used to establish the models for the potential distribution of this species by selecting 236 sites with known occurrences and 14 environmental variables. The results indicate that both models have good predictive power. Minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), annual precipitation (Bio12), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) were important environmental variables influencing the prediction of the Maxent model. According to the models, the temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China had high environmental suitability for this species, where the species had been recorded. Under each climate change scenario, climatic suitability of the existing range of this species increased, and its climatic niche expanded geographically to the north and higher elevation. GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. The projected spatial and temporal patterns of P. stenoptera can provide reference for the development of forest management and protection strategies.

RevDate: 2020-06-17

Kuvadia M, Cummis CE, Liguori G, et al (2020)

'Green-gional' anesthesia: the non-polluting benefits of regional anesthesia to decrease greenhouse gases and attenuate climate change.

Regional anesthesia and pain medicine pii:rapm-2020-101452 [Epub ahead of print].

Volatile halogenated gases and nitrous oxide used as part of a balanced general anesthetic may contribute to global warming. By avoiding volatile inhalational agent use, regional anesthesia may reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help prevent global warming. We present a theoretical calculation of the potential benefits and a real-life example of how much regional anesthesia may reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

RevDate: 2020-06-17

Marques R, Krüger RF, Peterson AT, et al (2020)

Climate change implications for the distribution of the babesiosis and anaplasmosis tick vector, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus.

Veterinary research, 51(1):81 pii:10.1186/s13567-020-00802-z.

Climate change ranks among the most important issues globally, affecting geographic distributions of vectors and pathogens, and inducing losses in livestock production among many other damaging effects. We characterized the potential geographic distribution of the ticks Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus, an important vector of babesiosis and anaplasmosis globally. We evaluated potential geographic shifts in suitability patterns for this species in two periods (2050 and 2070) and under two emissions scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our results anticipate increases in suitability worldwide, particularly in the highest production areas for cattle. The Indo-Malayan region resulted in the highest cattle exposure under both climate change projections (2050), with increases in suitability of > 30%. This study illustrates how ecological niche modeling can be used to explore probable effects of climate change on disease vectors, and the possible consequences on economic dimensions.

RevDate: 2020-06-16

Hall NL, L Crosby (2020)

Climate Change Impacts on Health in Remote Indigenous Communities in Australia.

International journal of environmental health research [Epub ahead of print].

Human-induced climate change in Australia is affecting the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including bushfires, cyclones and drought. Human health is affected by these climate impacts through direct impacts which include injuries and death from extreme events; indirect impacts through natural system changes such as impacts on water, food and air; and indirect impacts on human systems including mental health, productivity, and damage to housing and health-care facilities. Remote settlements are vulnerable to these climate impacts and associated health impacts due to isolated location, quality of the infrastructure, economic resources, limited transport, and existing health vulnerabilities that enable resilience or vulnerability. Remote Indigenous communities are particularly vulnerable. This research sought to identify vulnerabilities of human health of residents in remote Indigenous communities to human-induced climate change to contribute to adequate responses of prevention and preparation.

RevDate: 2020-06-16

Chen K, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, R Dubrow (2020)

Projections of Ambient Temperature- and Air Pollution-Related Mortality Burden Under Combined Climate Change and Population Aging Scenarios: a Review.

Current environmental health reports pii:10.1007/s40572-020-00281-6 [Epub ahead of print].

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change will affect mortality associated with both ambient temperature and air pollution. Because older adults have elevated vulnerability to both non-optimal ambient temperature (heat and cold) and air pollution, population aging can amplify future population vulnerability to these stressors through increasing the number of vulnerable older adults. We aimed to review recent evidence on projections of temperature- or air pollution-related mortality burden (i.e., number of deaths) under combined climate change and population aging scenarios, with a focus on evaluating the role of population aging in assessing these health impacts of climate change. We included studies published between 2014 and 2019 with age-specific population projections.

RECENT FINDINGS: We reviewed 16 temperature projection studies and 15 air pollution projection studies. Nine of the temperature studies and four of the air pollution studies took population aging into account by performing age-stratified analyses that utilized age-specific relationships between temperature or air pollution exposures and mortality (i.e., age-specific exposure-response functions (ERFs)). Population aging amplifies the projected mortality burden of temperature and air pollution under a warming climate. Compared with a constant population scenario, population aging scenarios lead to less reduction or even increases in cold-related mortality burden, resulting in substantial net increases in future overall (heat and cold) temperature-related mortality burden. There is strong evidence suggesting that to accurately assess the future temperature- and air pollution-related mortality burden of climate change, investigators need to account for the amplifying effect of population aging. Thus, all future studies should incorporate age-specific population size projections and age-specific ERFs into their analyses. These studies would benefit from refinement of age-specific ERF estimates.

RevDate: 2020-06-16

Ostojic SM (2020)

Eat less meat: Fortifying food with creatine to tackle climate change.

RevDate: 2020-06-16

Muller JE, DG Nathan (2020)

COVID-19, nuclear war, and global warming: lessons for our vulnerable world.

RevDate: 2020-06-15

Ji XJ, Xu YH, Zuo X, et al (2020)

[Estimating the climatic capacity of food security in Henan Province, China under the future climate change scenarios].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 31(3):853-862.

To explore the effects of future climate change on food production in Henan Province, the climate potential productivity and its change characteristics in Henan Province were calculated by agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model. This study was based on the production potential and climate resource carrying capacity of summer maize and winter wheat, combined with the observation data of 111 meteorological stations in Henan Province from 1961 to 2017 and the meteorological data under two emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in 2041-2080. With the grain demand index under different living standards, we analyzed climate carrying capacity and surplus space of Henan Pro-vince. The results showed that the average climatic potential productivity of maize was 18408.87 kg·hm-2 from 1961 to 2017, with high values in the middle and east, and low values in the west. Compared with the reference period (1981-2010), climatic potential productivity of maize under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 decreased by 13.0% and 8.0% respectively, with the high value center shifting from the east to the southwest of Henan. The average climatic potential productivity of wheat was 10889.79 kg·hm-2, which was high in the middle region and low in the north. Compared with the reference period, climatic potential productivity of wheat under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 decreased by 18.6% and 21.7%, respectively. Under the current condition of subsistence and well-off food demand, the maximum carrying capacity of climate resources respectively could support 252 million and 183 million people. In 2070s (2071-2080), the average supporting population of the maximum climate resource carrying capacity (Cmax) would decrease. Compared with the reference period, Cmax under the level of well-off and subsistence would decrease by 9.7% and 18.4% respectively in RCP4.5 scenario, and 7.7% and 16.6% respectively in RCP8.5 scenario. Under current climate condition, the relative surplus rate of climate resources in Henan Province ranged from -93.0% to 356.9%. Compared with the reference period, the relative residual rate of climate resources in the future would reduce nearly 40%.

RevDate: 2020-06-15

Wooliver R, Tittes SB, SN Sheth (2020)

A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of thermal performance in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower.

Evolution; international journal of organic evolution [Epub ahead of print].

Evolutionary rescue can prevent populations from declining under climate change, and should be more likely at high-latitude, "leading" edges of species' ranges due to greater temperature anomalies and gene flow from warm-adapted populations. Using a resurrection study with seeds collected before and after a seven-year period of record warming, we tested for thermal adaptation in the scarlet monkeyflower Mimulus cardinalis. We grew ancestors and descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge populations across eight temperatures. Despite recent climate anomalies, populations showed limited evolution of thermal performance curves. However, one southern population evolved a narrower thermal performance breadth by 1.31°C, which matches the direction and magnitude of the average decrease in seasonality experienced. Consistent with the climate variability hypothesis, thermal performance breadth increased with temperature seasonality across the species' geographic range. Inconsistent with performance trade-offs between low and high temperatures across populations, we did not detect a positive relationship between thermal optimum and mean temperature. These findings fail to support the hypothesis that evolutionary response to climate change is greatest at the leading edge, and suggest that the evolution of thermal performance is unlikely to rescue most populations from the detrimental effects of rapidly changing climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2020-06-15

Woodside AG (2020)

Interventions as experiments: Connecting the dots in forecasting and overcoming pandemics, global warming, corruption, civil rights violations, misogyny, income inequality, and guns.

Journal of business research, 117:212-218.

This essay applies the "ultimate broadening of the concept of marketing" for designing and implementing interventions in public laws and policy, national and local regulations, and everyday lives of individuals. The ultimate broadening of the concept of marketing: Marketing is any activity, message, emotion, or behavior by someone, firm, organization, government, community, or brand executed consciously or nonconsciously that may stimulate an observable or non-observable activity, emotion, attitude, belief, or thought by someone else, group, organization, firm or community. The broadening definition applies to the current interventions by national and state/provincial governments as well as healthcare facilities, medical science facilities, firms, and individuals to mitigate and eliminate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Framing interventions as experiments is helpful in improving the quality of their designs, implementing them successfully, and validly interpreting their effectiveness. In January and February 2020, a few nations were exemplars for accurately forecasting the coming disaster of COVID-19 as a cause of illness and death and in designing/implementing effective mitigating strategies: Denmark, Finland, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, Norway, and Vietnam. While the COVID-19 prevention intervention tests now being run for several promising vaccines are true experiments, the researchers analyzing the data from these interventions may need prompting to examine the efficacy of each vaccine tested by modeling demographic subgroups for the members in the treatment and placebo groups in the randomized control trials.

RevDate: 2020-06-14

Pierangelini M, Thiry M, P Cardol (2020)

Different levels of energetic coupling between photosynthesis and respiration do not determine the occurrence of adaptive responses of Symbiodiniaceae to global warming.

The New phytologist [Epub ahead of print].

Disentangling the metabolic functioning of corals' endosymbionts (Symbiodiniaceae) is relevant to understand the response of coral reefs to warming oceans. In this work, we first questioned if there is an energetic coupling between photosynthesis and respiration in Symbiodiniaceae (Symbiodinium, Durusdinium and Effrenium), and second, how different levels of energetic coupling will affect their adaptive responses to global warming. Coupling between photosynthesis and respiration was established by determining the variation of metabolic rates during thermal response curves, and how inhibition of respiration affects photosynthesis. Adaptive responses (not reversible) were studied exposing two Symbiodinium species, with different levels of photosynthesis-respiration interaction, to high temperature (32°C) for one year. We found that some Symbiodiniaceae have a high level of energetic coupling, i.e. photosynthesis and respiration have the same temperature dependency, and photosynthesis is negatively affected when respiration is inhibited. Conversely, photosynthesis and respiration are not coupled in other species. In any case, prolonged exposure to high temperature caused adjustments of both photosynthesis and respiration but these changes were fully reversible. We conclude that energetic coupling between photosynthesis and respiration has wide variation amongst Symbiodiniaceae and does not determine the occurrence of adaptive responses in Symbiodiniaceae to temperature increase.

RevDate: 2020-06-14

Choudhary S, Guha A, Kholova J, et al (2020)

Maize, sorghum, and pearl millet have highly contrasting species strategies to adapt to water stress and climate change-like conditions.

Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology, 295:110297.

This study compared maize, sorghum and pearl-millet, leading C4 cereals, for the transpiration rate (TR) response to increasing atmospheric and soil water stress. The TR response to transiently increasing VPD (0.9-4.1 kPa) and the transpiration and leaf area expansion response to progressive soil drying were measured in controlled conditions at early vegetative stage in 10-16 genotypes of each species grown in moderate or high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) conditions. Maize grown under moderate VPD conditions restricted TR under high VPD, but not sorghum and pearl millet. By contrast, when grown under high VPD, all species increased TR upon increasing VPD, suggesting a loss of TR responsiveness. Sorghum and pearl-millet grown under high VPD reduced leaf area, but not maize. Upon progressive soil drying, maize reduced transpiration at higher soil moisture than sorghum and pearl millet, especially under high VPD, and leaf area expansion declined at similar or lower soil moisture than transpiration in maize and sorghum. It is concluded that maize conserves water by restricting transpiration upon increasing VPD and under higher soil moisture than sorghum and millet, giving maize significantly higher TE, whereas sorghum and pearl millet rely mostly on reduced leaf area and somewhat on transpiration restriction.

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RJR Experience and Expertise

Researcher

Robbins holds BS, MS, and PhD degrees in the life sciences. He served as a tenured faculty member in the Zoology and Biological Science departments at Michigan State University. He is currently exploring the intersection between genomics, microbial ecology, and biodiversity — an area that promises to transform our understanding of the biosphere.

Educator

Robbins has extensive experience in college-level education: At MSU he taught introductory biology, genetics, and population genetics. At JHU, he was an instructor for a special course on biological database design. At FHCRC, he team-taught a graduate-level course on the history of genetics. At Bellevue College he taught medical informatics.

Administrator

Robbins has been involved in science administration at both the federal and the institutional levels. At NSF he was a program officer for database activities in the life sciences, at DOE he was a program officer for information infrastructure in the human genome project. At the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, he served as a vice president for fifteen years.

Technologist

Robbins has been involved with information technology since writing his first Fortran program as a college student. At NSF he was the first program officer for database activities in the life sciences. At JHU he held an appointment in the CS department and served as director of the informatics core for the Genome Data Base. At the FHCRC he was VP for Information Technology.

Publisher

While still at Michigan State, Robbins started his first publishing venture, founding a small company that addressed the short-run publishing needs of instructors in very large undergraduate classes. For more than 20 years, Robbins has been operating The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project, a web site dedicated to the digital publishing of critical works in science, especially classical genetics.

Speaker

Robbins is well-known for his speaking abilities and is often called upon to provide keynote or plenary addresses at international meetings. For example, in July, 2012, he gave a well-received keynote address at the Global Biodiversity Informatics Congress, sponsored by GBIF and held in Copenhagen. The slides from that talk can be seen HERE.

Facilitator

Robbins is a skilled meeting facilitator. He prefers a participatory approach, with part of the meeting involving dynamic breakout groups, created by the participants in real time: (1) individuals propose breakout groups; (2) everyone signs up for one (or more) groups; (3) the groups with the most interested parties then meet, with reports from each group presented and discussed in a subsequent plenary session.

Designer

Robbins has been engaged with photography and design since the 1960s, when he worked for a professional photography laboratory. He now prefers digital photography and tools for their precision and reproducibility. He designed his first web site more than 20 years ago and he personally designed and implemented this web site. He engages in graphic design as a hobby.

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Collection of publications by R J Robbins

Reprints and preprints of publications, slide presentations, instructional materials, and data compilations written or prepared by Robert Robbins. Most papers deal with computational biology, genome informatics, using information technology to support biomedical research, and related matters.

Research Gate page for R J Robbins

ResearchGate is a social networking site for scientists and researchers to share papers, ask and answer questions, and find collaborators. According to a study by Nature and an article in Times Higher Education , it is the largest academic social network in terms of active users.

Curriculum Vitae for R J Robbins

short personal version

Curriculum Vitae for R J Robbins

long standard version

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